LostAndFound-2015-04-26 ICT - Trading With 90 Percent Setups With Consistency-90_percent.srt2015-04-26 ICT - Trading With 90 Percent Setups With Consistency-90_percent.srt
Outline
00:10 - The importance of starting with low-level objectives.
02:52 - How do we identify low hanging fruit in terms of returns that are achievable and realistic?
09:22 - What would be a realistic account size to start with?
12:03 - What is the average daily range in cable pairs?
18:18 - What are the probabilities of price gyrating above and below the opening price?
22:03 - The goal is to get to 30 pips per week.
29:34 - The more you trade, the more likely you’re going to take a loss.
33:13 - How to use charts to get to 9% setups -.
38:42 - You need to know what you’re looking for.
41:12 - Selling on weakness vs. strength.
48:31 - Graphically depicting a daily candle.
52:08 - What you learn by seeing it in real time.
57:59 - What are the times of the day when the market goes sideways?
01:00:38 - Selling short on a bearish order block.
01:07:54 - It's not about me, it's about everyone else -.
01:11:06 - Why you need to have higher timeframe charts.
01:18:32 - Swing low and daily high.
01:22:11 - What happens if market flow is broken.
01:30:22 - Market Maker By Profile Breakdown.
01:33:06 - How to use a horizontal line inside the consolidation to get more for your money.
01:39:34 - How to create a low-boom in New York.
01:42:56 - Where the New York session kill zone takes place.
01:49:28 - You don’t even need to break the range.
01:53:10 - What’s the most appropriate form of trading during a down day?
Transcription
1 | 00:00:10,110 --> 00:00:19,260 | ICT: Hello, folks, this is the inner circle trader, or as many of you know, Michael Huddleston, we're gonna be looking at the idea of trading with 90% |
2 | 00:00:19,260 --> 00:00:31,050 | setups. And I know that probably sounds very ambitious as a goal and teaching in the framework of one particular video. But I'm going to lay that challenge |
3 | 00:00:31,050 --> 00:00:39,540 | before myself, and let's see if we can accomplish that in about an hour or so. But before we get into the specifics on how you actually go into the |
4 | 00:00:39,540 --> 00:00:49,650 | marketplace, and ferreting out these 90% setups, it's important that you understand that there is a huge advantage to your trading. If you go into your |
5 | 00:00:50,610 --> 00:01:01,590 | learning with low level objectives, okay, don't go in there thinking you're trying to new double your account in a month, or even six months are you getting |
6 | 00:01:01,590 --> 00:01:14,430 | crazy returns like 30, New 50% per month. I think that 6% is an ambitious goal for a monthly return for a new trader. And I think that if proper study and |
7 | 00:01:14,430 --> 00:01:23,970 | amount of time over price action study, not trading study, okay, and understanding the framework of the concepts that I teach most of what you can |
8 | 00:01:23,970 --> 00:01:33,870 | find on the inner circle trader.com. A lot of the tutorials that I have on that website, and on my YouTube channel, there's a plethora of information already |
9 | 00:01:33,870 --> 00:01:45,900 | available. And I know most of you're waiting for the, in the crowning jewels of my market maker concept series of going 910 1112. This is kind of have a little |
10 | 00:01:45,900 --> 00:01:56,070 | bit of some of the flavor you'll see in those videos, but took a lot of specifics, either that entire collection of the last portion of that series, and |
11 | 00:01:56,070 --> 00:02:04,350 | kind of like threw it together for a lot of folks that are asking me, Can you give me something that I can work with right now. And that is in a way using |
12 | 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:14,670 | majority the concepts I've shared over the last five years plus in the FX community, and how to how to frame an idea on going into the charts going into |
13 | 00:02:15,270 --> 00:02:25,920 | the equity plans that would be necessary for a new trader to adhere to or at least work within and and grow and graduate into new, higher loftier goals. Now |
14 | 00:02:25,920 --> 00:02:31,620 | doesn't mean you're always going to hit these goals, obviously, because your past performance is not indicative of future results. And everything I'm showing |
15 | 00:02:31,620 --> 00:02:41,340 | you here is not to say there's any account that's ever done this, okay, we're speaking in the realm of theory. Okay. So while these ideas are theoretically |
16 | 00:02:41,340 --> 00:02:48,750 | possible, they're not theoretically guaranteed, okay, so I want you to understand that. But if you don't have a target, okay, and you're aiming at |
17 | 00:02:48,750 --> 00:02:57,900 | nothing, you're gonna hit it every time. So we're gonna start with a low objective. Okay. And I know some of you would you argue with me and saying that |
18 | 00:02:57,900 --> 00:03:07,860 | 6% return is, you know, a pretty ambitious return if you're used to seeing the results that your new fund manager does with your stock accounts. And you know, |
19 | 00:03:07,860 --> 00:03:17,400 | if you have an IRA in the States or whatever, that's a really good return. And the idea that they teach in equities is if you can return an average of 12% per |
20 | 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:26,250 | year, man, 12% a year is absolutely doable. You know, why people invest their money in those types of accounts, and not simply learn how to manage your money |
21 | 00:03:26,250 --> 00:03:33,780 | is beyond me. But that's another discussion, another rabbit show for another video. Okay, so we're gonna look at the idea of just trading with one and a half |
22 | 00:03:33,780 --> 00:03:46,560 | percent risk, okay. And yes, that's kind of high if you're a new trader. So if you're a new trader, okay, even in a demo account, do not tray with 2% 5% 10%, |
23 | 00:03:46,590 --> 00:03:57,420 | or like that, you should be trading about a half of 1%, and maybe even a quarter of 1%. And the purpose of that is not to get lulled into believing the demo |
24 | 00:03:57,420 --> 00:04:05,520 | account profits and losses that you take, they won't have any emotional effect on you. Okay, you'll be able to look at the results in a pure |
25 | 00:04:06,990 --> 00:04:15,690 | analytical fashion where you're not being tugged toward fashion internally and psychologically, even though it's Monopoly money, it's pretend is not making you |
26 | 00:04:15,690 --> 00:04:23,970 | any money when you're in a demo account. If you're starting as a new trader, it's important that you use the tool of the demo account to frame your |
27 | 00:04:23,970 --> 00:04:33,570 | development step by step by step to the point where you graduate to seeing consistently profitable in terms of pips, okay, this being you know, harvested |
28 | 00:04:33,570 --> 00:04:41,850 | from your, your trade selections and your timing and your accident. Okay? So if you're doing all the steps properly, you're not going to be looking for money |
29 | 00:04:41,850 --> 00:04:49,410 | initially, and I'm talking to first six months, and then a lot of folks just don't do not patient enough. Okay, but you know, I beat you over the head, you |
30 | 00:04:49,410 --> 00:04:57,720 | know, for the last five years, you're going to be patient with me or you're just going to leave and most of you stuck around and I congratulate well, well done. |
31 | 00:04:57,840 --> 00:05:06,150 | Okay. So the The patients factor really is a millionaire maker, okay? And if you don't have patience, you're going to lose, okay? And I guarantee that you're not |
32 | 00:05:06,150 --> 00:05:12,540 | going to make money consistently, you might have a flash in the pan success story, okay, but keep doing it and you'll lose, I promise you, it's gonna |
33 | 00:05:12,540 --> 00:05:24,450 | happen. So how do we how do we identify low hanging fruit in terms of returns that are very achievable and realistic in the foreign exchange market, once you |
34 | 00:05:24,450 --> 00:05:33,660 | understand the framework of your specific trading style, and that trading style may be a position trader, it may be a swing trader a day trader, a scalper even |
35 | 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:41,160 | looking for new 1520 30 pips intraday, you know, a couple times a week or even one time week, okay, I'm going to build the idea that you only need that one |
36 | 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:50,160 | type of setup. So if you are a scalper, okay, and you just can't get yourself in front of the charts a whole lot, where you're limited to doing mobile phone |
37 | 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:58,290 | trading, like you have to trade on your phone or whatever. We're going to give you an idea in this particular video on how you can do that. So I'm giving you |
38 | 00:05:58,290 --> 00:06:08,190 | the lowest, you know, the lowest rung in terms of opportunities that are available, and you can form fit this to meet any goal that you have in mind in |
39 | 00:06:08,190 --> 00:06:20,640 | terms of style trader. Okay, now, I want you to remember some of the points I've made over the years as it relates to pips, you know, on a weekly basis, if you |
40 | 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:30,900 | bring in an average of 25 to 30 pips, okay? Now, if you're trading 2%, if you if you risk and 2% of your account, and you average to 23 and a half, I think swing |
41 | 00:06:30,900 --> 00:06:38,040 | three and a half to 25 pips per week, your money, if you consistently doing that, you will double your money more than a little bit more than double your |
42 | 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:47,040 | money every single year. Now, I guarantee you your stock retirement account did not do that last year. Okay. And some of you will probably send me an email, oh, |
43 | 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:56,790 | you have minded but you're lying. So the point is, is the equities market, you have so many things against you. Okay, because the leverage is not there. Okay. |
44 | 00:06:56,790 --> 00:07:08,280 | And most of the companies that you would be looking to trade in, that have huge numbers to support buying them are so lofty in price, you coming in with an |
45 | 00:07:08,280 --> 00:07:16,890 | account like $2,000? What are you gonna do with that? You trade an apple, you know, I'm long, you Apple for 120? Looking for 135 and 140. Presently, at the |
46 | 00:07:16,890 --> 00:07:27,420 | time of this recording, I just got 130. But think about $130 per share, how many shares? Can you buy of Apple? With $2,000? I would argue not many. Okay, so, and |
47 | 00:07:27,420 --> 00:07:35,040 | yes, I know some of you are walking by options. And I knew that. Okay, I'm not trying to get into the argument. Okay. But I'm trying to give you an idea on how |
48 | 00:07:35,820 --> 00:07:41,130 | lucrative the foreign exchange market is. And here's the benefit that most people overlook. |
49 | 00:07:42,390 --> 00:07:57,210 | The risk management is absolutely perfect. It's perfect, because it allows you to form fit and tailor made your specific risk model. You can't do that in |
50 | 00:07:57,210 --> 00:08:06,960 | futures, you can't do that. In trading equities, you're limited to what the options allow you to buying an option put or call gives you the right but not |
51 | 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:14,700 | obligation to own 100 shares per per option. Or you buy the shares, that's your limitation period done. If you ain't got the bankroll hit the road Jack, you |
52 | 00:08:14,700 --> 00:08:22,230 | ain't got an opportunity to trade in the equity market, okay. Or you go into a fund and you just, you add money to each week and hope the guy that's managing |
53 | 00:08:22,230 --> 00:08:30,300 | your account is looking out for your best interest, but I can tell you, they're not okay, so they're not. So it's important that you understand that the main |
54 | 00:08:30,990 --> 00:08:41,940 | framework that we're building in this particular video teaching is if you want to be trading with 90% setups, part of that equation comes along with it, |
55 | 00:08:42,510 --> 00:08:53,070 | managing your equity properly, okay, because I can show you how to buy and sell all day long, and wonderful setups, okay, but if you manage your money wrong, or |
56 | 00:08:53,070 --> 00:09:00,630 | incorrectly rather, you're going to you're going to get knocked on your your tail side, and it's not going to be fun, and you're going to walk away, you |
57 | 00:09:00,630 --> 00:09:08,190 | really disturbed thinking, Man, I got a system that makes money, it's highly successful. But if you overload your account, it doesn't take much to dust it |
58 | 00:09:08,220 --> 00:09:15,030 | and you're, you're out of the game, okay, unless you want to refund your account. And most people won't refund the account as many times as that type of |
59 | 00:09:15,060 --> 00:09:24,390 | show will require you to do it because eventually you'll be out on a limb Song, Song yourself off the tree, you know, on the wrong side of the limb. So with all |
60 | 00:09:24,390 --> 00:09:32,430 | that, let's get right into the business of how to trade with 9% setups. We're gonna assume you have a hypothetical $2,000 Starting equity now I took a lot of |
61 | 00:09:32,430 --> 00:09:41,700 | time to argue with myself what would be a realistic account size to start with? If you're really looking to make a go of it in forex, can you trade with less |
62 | 00:09:41,700 --> 00:09:51,990 | yes should you know okay, but looking at this, okay, if we're gonna LIS assume that we're trading with a $2,000 account. And we're risking one and a half |
63 | 00:09:51,990 --> 00:10:00,810 | percent per trade. Now this is a this is assuming that you've gone through the six months, trial and error of going through all my videos going Through not |
64 | 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:10,140 | watching videos for six months, but going through all of them, and then starting a demo account campaign where you're utilizing the setups, looking at a demo |
65 | 00:10:10,140 --> 00:10:18,330 | account, risking one quarter to one half of 1% in the demo account, okay, and only using the amount of money that you would have in your account, just because |
66 | 00:10:18,330 --> 00:10:27,150 | they give you $50,000, don't trade with $50,000 leverage, assume only the $2,000 you're going to put in it may be 5000, maybe whatever it is. But sticking to the |
67 | 00:10:27,180 --> 00:10:37,200 | example we have here, we're going to assume that you're trading with a $2,000 account, only risking one quarter or one half of that account size, because you |
68 | 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:47,340 | do not want to get lulled into believing that that money so easy to make, okay, so therefore I'm going to add more risk on because if I can do it 80% of the |
69 | 00:10:47,340 --> 00:10:56,910 | time or 90% of the time, like we're trying to convey in this teaching 90% Success is going to come with time, okay, you're not going to come out the gate |
70 | 00:10:56,910 --> 00:11:05,490 | with 9% accuracy. Trust me, it doesn't work like that. But how do you aspire and then grow to and develop to 9% setups, and consistently making those types of |
71 | 00:11:05,490 --> 00:11:17,130 | setups. This is the, this is the framework, okay, now it's a lot of other avenues you can go to get the same result, okay? Or new different tools out of |
72 | 00:11:17,130 --> 00:11:27,210 | my collection in my arsenal, and arrive at other style of trading and still get the basic result of 90% success. Okay, so it's all the same way, just different |
73 | 00:11:27,210 --> 00:11:37,020 | avenues using the approaches and concepts together, but blending them to fit your unique trading profile, both psychological and emotional, and financial, |
74 | 00:11:37,020 --> 00:11:44,370 | because you can't spend my money and I can't spend yours. So it doesn't make a difference. what anybody says is the perfect starting equity account, okay, |
75 | 00:11:44,370 --> 00:11:51,960 | size, whatever you can afford to trade with. That's what you start with. Because as much as I would like to have 50,000 To start with, most people can, okay, so |
76 | 00:11:53,280 --> 00:12:02,250 | what does that mean if you're trading one and a half percent risk, okay, well, every trade from the 2000 point here, okay, you're gonna be risking $1 per pip. |
77 | 00:12:03,060 --> 00:12:10,200 | Now that's the assume that's under the assumption that you're using a 30 pips stop loss. Now, if you've been watching my material, you know that I like 30 |
78 | 00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:21,450 | pips because it's 1/3 of the typical average daily range of 100 pips now I know, they're not always average daily range of Andhra pips, I knew that. Okay, but I, |
79 | 00:12:22,170 --> 00:12:31,320 | more or less general rule of thumb, if you want one of those types of things, that's what I look at average daily range as in the major fiber and cable pair, |
80 | 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:42,480 | I look at that as that's like a good benchmark. Now, again, it's going to deviate, you'll have big ranges and smaller ranges of cable over the, you know, |
81 | 00:12:42,870 --> 00:12:53,910 | a long period of time, I believe that 100 pips is pretty, pretty fair. So approximately 1/3 of that daily range is 30 pips. So now, I've already talked |
82 | 00:12:53,910 --> 00:13:05,550 | many times in most of my teaching series, and some of my webinars, live sessions and such, and common to commentary and forms. If you are looking to be long, you |
83 | 00:13:05,550 --> 00:13:14,790 | want to be looking to go long below the opening price. And if you're familiar with the Asian range, you want to be buying below the Asian range high. Okay. |
84 | 00:13:15,030 --> 00:13:23,850 | And if you do not take notes in this video, you're not going to retain it. And that's why I'm insistent you have no pet, because I'm not going to print it out |
85 | 00:13:23,850 --> 00:13:30,870 | for you. I'm not going to type it up, because it's gonna save me a lot of time. Plus, it'll force you to do what I did. Take notes, lots of them, read them in |
86 | 00:13:30,870 --> 00:13:36,990 | your own handwriting, okay, by writing them down, you'll also retain them better. So again, if you're looking for bullish scenarios and looking to be |
87 | 00:13:36,990 --> 00:13:49,530 | buying, okay, the idea is you want to be buying below the Asian range high and below the opening price. Now, what is the opening price? Opening prices at 00? |
88 | 00:13:49,530 --> 00:14:00,450 | GMT? Okay, and 12 midnight, New York time? Now I say that like that, because a lot of guys will ask, Well, what about daylight savings time? Okay, well just |
89 | 00:14:00,450 --> 00:14:10,020 | simply do this set yourself a clock. Okay, for New York time. And whenever New York time does its shift in daylight savings time and back to your standard. |
90 | 00:14:10,950 --> 00:14:20,580 | You'll know. So whatever that opening price is at midnight, use that one. Okay. I'll just kill a whole lot of arguments and email questions and Twitter. |
91 | 00:14:20,820 --> 00:14:30,450 | Questions like that. Just use G zero GMT, the opening price there, and then the opening price at 12 Midnight in New York. Okay, now you're trying to say Well, |
92 | 00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:42,210 | which one is it? Like, you know, is it is it the one that does zero GMT or is it the one at 12 midnight? Now gone in my head? I generally want to look at |
93 | 00:14:42,210 --> 00:14:53,640 | midnight in New York time. Okay, I like that one more. It's more apt to show the Judas swing that everyone's you know, grown to understand with my teaching the |
94 | 00:14:55,110 --> 00:15:08,760 | the zero GMT. That one is I believe a lot more were sensitive with yen, Ozzy, New Zealand, those types of pairs because they're more prone to make sizable |
95 | 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:18,630 | moves in the Asian session, but they still are very sensitive to 12. Midnight, candles, opening prices? Well, again, it's 12 midnight, New York time. So when I |
96 | 00:15:18,630 --> 00:15:25,770 | say ICT time, and a lot of guys will rip me and say what it means is if it's going to take 30 minutes, it's going to take four hours. What I mean, really, |
97 | 00:15:25,770 --> 00:15:35,850 | certainly without any jest behind it, when I say ICT time to simply whatever it is in New York, in states, that's my, that's my ICT time, okay? So just bear |
98 | 00:15:35,850 --> 00:15:46,740 | that in mind. But if you're looking to be a seller, you want to be selling above the Asian range low. And you want to be selling above the opening price of both |
99 | 00:15:46,740 --> 00:15:56,760 | of those opening price points. We just talked about zero GMT, and 12. Midnight, okay? Now, if you want to be a buyer, okay, if you want to be a buyer in the |
100 | 00:15:56,760 --> 00:16:06,570 | market, the best days to be buying is Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Okay, if you're gonna be a seller, best days are Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Why is that? Because |
101 | 00:16:06,570 --> 00:16:19,020 | there is a large and we'll talk more about this a little bit, there's a large likelihood and probability for the weekly range to expand from the early |
102 | 00:16:19,020 --> 00:16:26,220 | beginning of the week, okay, Monday, Tuesday, and certainly by Wednesday, if it's been lagging, and that's how you know if it's going to be a Wednesday by |
103 | 00:16:26,220 --> 00:16:33,840 | because if Monday and Tuesday are lackluster, and it's overall still bullish, the signals gonna generate on on Wednesday on open, okay, and the same things we |
104 | 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:44,610 | just discussed are true, just reverse it for looking to be a seller. Okay. Now, what amplifies that magnitude of accuracy to 90%? Well, if you understand the |
105 | 00:16:44,610 --> 00:16:51,690 | higher timeframe premise, which will, they're going to talk about with charts, and we'll show you some examples and how to build that framework, you'll want to |
106 | 00:16:51,690 --> 00:16:53,010 | be looking at those |
107 | 00:16:55,380 --> 00:17:08,280 | higher level, key support levels, higher level timeframe, order blocks, and liquidity pools, okay? Those are the pillars of higher timeframe analysis and |
108 | 00:17:08,310 --> 00:17:20,160 | incorporating momentum studies, when it's conducive for for those types of trading scenarios, that would be you know, a further amplification in pushing |
109 | 00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:33,030 | you beyond the 90% likelihood of your results. So yes, you can trade with a higher degree than 90% You will never trade perfectly. Okay, I'm, I'm wildly |
110 | 00:17:33,030 --> 00:17:42,780 | accurate, but it took me a long, long time to get here. But I still do lose and I lose a lot of opportunities because of my entry point not being exactly where |
111 | 00:17:42,780 --> 00:17:51,210 | it should be, you know, I try to get you to fancy around trying to get to the lower low and the higher high. And sometimes I miss opportunity. So you know, I |
112 | 00:17:51,210 --> 00:18:02,490 | take that as a loss. Okay, as a trader, I didn't lose any equity. But I take that as a loss because I did not perform efficiently they're in because I |
113 | 00:18:02,490 --> 00:18:11,880 | allowed greed and honesty will be is I'll refer back to what I did. And I was either looking to be greedy, or I was allowing my ego to you to drive me into |
114 | 00:18:11,910 --> 00:18:23,910 | trying to get an entry or exit price that was not as realistic as I should have expected. So now, that's what we're getting into later on. Now I'm going to I |
115 | 00:18:23,910 --> 00:18:29,550 | probably should have been talking with the charts in front of when I was doing all this but we're gonna go back over all that stuff again, shortly in the |
116 | 00:18:29,550 --> 00:18:37,950 | second half of this video. But for now, I just want to cover the boring part. The numbers suggest here if we're risking one and a half percent on a $2,000 |
117 | 00:18:37,950 --> 00:18:48,870 | account with a 30 pip stop. And I'm going back to this now. The reason why we use a 30 pip stop is because the likelihood of price gyrating up above and below |
118 | 00:18:48,900 --> 00:18:58,470 | the opening price 30 pips you know, with the four it takes its direction, assuming it's for sake of argument, say we're bullish on the cable, which is |
119 | 00:18:58,470 --> 00:19:08,490 | pretty pound USD. We see the opening price price drops down, okay, from the opening price. Generally it does not do that more than 30 pips now. Can it do |
120 | 00:19:08,490 --> 00:19:16,860 | it? 40 Yeah, but typically it's about it, if it's going to be an up close day, and it's gonna be higher than opens at midnight or at zero GMT for that |
121 | 00:19:16,860 --> 00:19:27,300 | particular day, and it is a Tuesday and Wednesday, or Tuesday or Wednesday. The probabilities for that trade, okay to move below the opening price more than 30 |
122 | 00:19:27,690 --> 00:19:39,210 | that's the that's the general rule. Okay, but it can go as much as 40 pips. 30 pips is about the cusp of where the low will form below the opening price. Don't |
123 | 00:19:39,210 --> 00:19:47,970 | take my word on it, study. Okay? And I'm telling you, you're gonna be floored, absolutely floored with the end statistics behind it all. So looking at that, |
124 | 00:19:48,300 --> 00:19:57,000 | just with that alone, you can turn the video off, and you're already in a 9% club if you put time and effort in studying. And no, it sounds egotistical. I |
125 | 00:19:57,000 --> 00:20:06,330 | know it sounds you know, it can't be That easy, but it is it Absolutely. Is that easy. What makes it hard is you're not going to trust it. Why don't you trust |
126 | 00:20:06,330 --> 00:20:13,350 | it? Because you haven't put the time in front of the charts seeing it consistently over and over and over and over again, will it sometimes fail? |
127 | 00:20:13,380 --> 00:20:26,910 | Absolutely. And that's why we said 90%, not 100. Okay, in those 10% of losses, you can undermine your entire growth of your equity. Just by goofing off and |
128 | 00:20:26,910 --> 00:20:35,640 | over leveraging Okay, or not doing what you're supposed to do. Okay, not trying to wait for it to go into an order block not waiting for a kill zone, or time of |
129 | 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:47,370 | day where it's highly likely to create a swing back into a retracement where it allows you to see that momentum expansion. Okay? So if we're trading with that |
130 | 00:20:47,370 --> 00:20:57,840 | mindset, okay, and 30 pips is the reason why we elect that is because we don't expect too much volatility above and below the opening price beyond 30 pips. If |
131 | 00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:06,360 | we are looking for a simple one to one, and we're developing as a trader, we don't know how to trust two to one three to one four to one, so for setups, |
132 | 00:21:06,630 --> 00:21:14,190 | okay, you just want to look to make the same amount of money you put up on the table in terms of risk. Well, if you're trading with one and a half percent, |
133 | 00:21:14,580 --> 00:21:25,170 | okay, you're going to see a gain of a weekly goal of 30 pips. Okay, so you're gonna look to make 30 pips risking 30 pips. And by doing that on a weekly basis, |
134 | 00:21:25,380 --> 00:21:36,660 | okay, and 30 pips is really, really low in you would generate 6% per month, now 6% per month, okay, and one year is, again, more than $10,000 |
135 | 00:21:46,470 --> 00:21:55,650 | Oops, you know, I just discovered something, and there's no way I'm going to go back and fix this. I was should have been looking at this right here, this 5000 |
136 | 00:21:55,650 --> 00:22:07,890 | Let's do this. It's 2000 This is a real real big goof up, but guess what, it just shows on human. Alright, let's, let's not do that. It's the let's do the |
137 | 00:22:08,430 --> 00:22:21,360 | $2,000 here. Okay, and you can see in the one year it'll be $4,024 Okay, $4,024. And in case you guys know something, you probably would look into that number |
138 | 00:22:21,360 --> 00:22:30,480 | like Wait a min how to get how to get that? Well, the starting count again would be 2000 hours here and then you drop it down into over three years, you'd be at |
139 | 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:41,040 | 16,000 hours if you never do anything more, you never added anything in terms of you know, equity management and an increasing your your exposure. The |
140 | 00:22:42,930 --> 00:22:52,680 | the same thing we said earlier it's $1 per pip, it's 30 pips stop risking one and a half percent maximum that can it's a sum assuming that we've already went |
141 | 00:22:52,680 --> 00:23:00,000 | through all the development stages and we've gone through all the videos we know what we're looking at. And then now you're applying it okay in a in a demo |
142 | 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:11,370 | account setting you it will teach you what to expect Okay? numbers wise with the with this gearing. Now when I say gearing, it means you're risking only one and |
143 | 00:23:11,370 --> 00:23:19,530 | a half percent with 30 pips stop the static stop of 30 pips. Now. Eventually you'll get the trade where you will trade smaller 30 pips stops, but that's not |
144 | 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:31,020 | the goal of this teaching. But goal for the week is 30 pips. And again, that is absolutely doable. Okay. Now over time, once you are consistently able to grab |
145 | 00:23:31,350 --> 00:23:42,690 | 30 pips from the market on a weekly basis, and you can do this with just one pair, one, not 14, not all the majors, okay, just one pair, pick one pair, and |
146 | 00:23:42,690 --> 00:23:52,200 | study it, get to know it very, very closely. Each pair has its own individual characteristics and personalities. You have to learn what they are, I can write |
147 | 00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:59,610 | them down the list, but you're not going to respect them until you see it happening over and over again. Okay, so once we get to the point where we |
148 | 00:23:59,610 --> 00:24:09,570 | consistently do that the next graduation would be to do what? Anticipate two to one. Well, the stops gonna stay static. We're never gonna risk more than 30 |
149 | 00:24:09,570 --> 00:24:17,880 | pips. Will you get stopped out if it goes 40? Yes. What do you do about it continue on. Don't worry about it. Don't harp on it, learn from it. The next |
150 | 00:24:17,910 --> 00:24:25,800 | setup gearing would be you're going to be looking for 60 pips per week, you're going to look for two to one setups. Okay, and you got to see that really, all |
151 | 00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:33,090 | you're doing is teaching yourself to hold the winners longer. Trust me, it's not easy in the beginning, you're not going to want to hold it you're going to want |
152 | 00:24:33,090 --> 00:24:40,170 | to get out when it shows 29 pips because you're going to think they're going to pull the rug out from underneath you at 29 You'll never see 30 Okay, yeah, it'll |
153 | 00:24:40,170 --> 00:24:47,700 | still happen some days, guess what it's gonna it's going to happen years from now, still, you'll expect to see price hit a particular target where your limit |
154 | 00:24:47,700 --> 00:24:56,370 | is, and it just gets within a fraction of it and you don't get out. Okay, and that's all part of trading. It's because it's an imperfect world. But if we have |
155 | 00:24:56,400 --> 00:25:04,890 | the gearing set to trading two to one setups in other words for me You can too, for every $1 risk, okay, and because we're trading with a 30 pip stop, the |
156 | 00:25:04,890 --> 00:25:15,810 | gearing will look like this, we're gonna trade with an expectation of 12% per month return. The goal now is 60 pips, the risk is still limited to 30 pips? |
157 | 00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:29,040 | Well, assuming that, you know, in one year, we can see clearly that it's much more in terms of return. Okay, then we saw with what we saw it 6% return, as you |
158 | 00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:40,110 | would expect, and you'd be over $118,000 in the course of three years. Now, why am I using three years, because three years is about what it's going to take |
159 | 00:25:40,110 --> 00:25:50,520 | once you really warm up to it. Now, mind you, you got six months of, you know, pre study time behind you, in addition to the 36 months, three year time period, |
160 | 00:25:50,580 --> 00:25:59,250 | okay? So it's not going to be overnight success for you. And a lot of guys that sell courses, and teach you things and write books, they don't tell you that. |
161 | 00:26:00,060 --> 00:26:07,110 | And that's the truth, you're going to have to grow into this, regardless of how good the system is, and how good your mentor is, and how good I am and whatever, |
162 | 00:26:07,350 --> 00:26:16,320 | okay, you it's going to take some time. And every doctor that goes to medical school, aren't great at way out through graduation going out there and cutting |
163 | 00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:26,580 | on people, okay, they got to do some things before they just start doing that. So without having any greater discussion relates to that once you get to the |
164 | 00:26:26,580 --> 00:26:36,420 | point where you can graduate. And now if we can learn to anticipate a buying day, and we can get in near the low of the day, and if you can hold on to a |
165 | 00:26:36,420 --> 00:26:45,990 | trade with the likelihood of expanding, okay with the goal in mind that it will be a higher close on Thursday and Friday than it did when it opened up on Monday |
166 | 00:26:45,990 --> 00:26:57,630 | or Sunday. Okay, so up close weak. If you allow your trade if you have really good placement on Tuesday or Wednesday, you can see a three to one payout. The |
167 | 00:26:57,630 --> 00:27:08,040 | stop stays, but what 30 pips risk? are we increasing our risk. No, it's remaining at one and a half percent. What's this? 18% I know some of you're |
168 | 00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:18,540 | chuckling like now, if I could just get 18% One time a year, that'd be awesome. Well, it's gonna take time to get here, but you're looking at 30 risk to get 90 |
169 | 00:27:18,540 --> 00:27:29,880 | pips returned. Okay? So your 2000 hours starting here, okay, in one year, would grow to $14,575 in three years, it would grow to three quarters of a million |
170 | 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:40,290 | dollars. Okay. Now, again, this is not taking into account for taxation. This is assuming that you tried to trade a tax deferred account. Now, no, you may not |
171 | 00:27:40,290 --> 00:27:42,120 | have the luxury of being able to do that. But |
172 | 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:53,040 | I'm sorry, if you don't let us have to consider obviously any form of taxation wherever you're at in the world. But this is what it would look like with three |
173 | 00:27:53,040 --> 00:28:06,390 | to one gearing. Now. Eventually, eventually, if you get to the point at which you can now consistently nail down one shot, one kill setups, okay. That's |
174 | 00:28:06,390 --> 00:28:17,310 | assuming that you're trading long, Tuesday and or Wednesday, holding to Thursday's close or sometime in Friday. Exiting, you can many times see four to |
175 | 00:28:17,310 --> 00:28:33,270 | one payouts and 41 payouts would put you in a very very elite status in terms of monthly returns. On it 20 pips for the week 30 pip stop is the same, it doesn't |
176 | 00:28:33,270 --> 00:28:48,120 | change $2,000 will become $26,000 in one year. And you don't need to describe how these numbers change your life either. The the idea obviously, is for you to |
177 | 00:28:48,270 --> 00:29:02,790 | number one, go in with a very small low in range objective 30 pips per week, using a 30 pip stop, build a comfort zone with using those individual initial |
178 | 00:29:02,820 --> 00:29:09,930 | gatherings. Okay, once you get to the point where it becomes so easy for you to go in and get 30 pips and we're gonna talk about how to do that in a couple of |
179 | 00:29:09,930 --> 00:29:20,490 | minutes. The the next graduation is is okay, well, now you got to learn, okay to hold on to the trade to a degree where it allows you to get two to one payouts. |
180 | 00:29:21,150 --> 00:29:32,130 | And you're going to learn that the only thing that's taking place is the setups that I'm teaching you. They're there all the time. But your ability to hold on |
181 | 00:29:32,130 --> 00:29:40,230 | to the trade will not always be there. You'll see something in the chart that scares you. Something will be said by me on Twitter, okay, or I won't like your |
182 | 00:29:40,230 --> 00:29:49,830 | tweet, okay? And it'll psychologically affect your your trade, and you'll get out way way too early. Okay, or if you see me take some profits on a position, |
183 | 00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:55,590 | you know, on Twitter, which is really why I don't like doing it because I know a lot of you are just hanging on, you know, thread waiting to see what I'm going |
184 | 00:29:55,590 --> 00:30:05,610 | to say. If someone puts a tweet in, you know, and it's close to what you're doing. But what's my, what's my opinion about that, and I'm really, I don't like |
185 | 00:30:05,610 --> 00:30:11,910 | to like those types of things until the week closes. And it's not because I don't want to like something and look stupid, it's I don't want to influence |
186 | 00:30:11,910 --> 00:30:21,540 | anyone's trading, because my job as a mentor, is not to show you how much money I can make. That's not my goal. My goal is to show you how to trade using what I |
187 | 00:30:21,540 --> 00:30:32,520 | know as a trader, and then I'm watching engaging what you do, okay? And if I'm an influence adversely, or positively to your outcome, while you're in a trade, |
188 | 00:30:32,550 --> 00:30:40,080 | you're not learning anything, except for a dependence on me, and I don't want that you want a complete independence from me and everyone else outside of your |
189 | 00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:50,340 | own trading, you're your own island, okay? And you need to be an island in this industry, okay? And it's a, that is a benefit, okay? And you need to take great |
190 | 00:30:50,340 --> 00:30:57,300 | comfort in that and learn to like being in isolation from everyone else. You don't want everybody else doing what you're doing, okay? Because |
191 | 00:30:58,860 --> 00:31:06,750 | it goes without saying, you just want to be an independent thinker. Okay. So now, with all that, okay, and I really wish I would have paid more attention to |
192 | 00:31:06,930 --> 00:31:16,530 | this cell in the spreadsheet, but, you know, whatever. The point is, as we see the numbers here, do you $1,000 Eventually, even with a small amount of money, |
193 | 00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:26,850 | okay, I'll give you a hypothetical here. Say you start with $2,000. Okay, and you invested. And you, you, you learned and you did the two to one gearing for |
194 | 00:31:26,850 --> 00:31:34,380 | about a year, okay. And then it took a little bit over a year for you to get to the point where you're paying out three to one setups, okay, you're not taking |
195 | 00:31:34,380 --> 00:31:42,360 | 15 trades per week, either, you're gonna see that there's only a handful, maybe two or three tops. Okay, setups that you're gonna take for the week. And that's |
196 | 00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:50,130 | it, you're gonna set your hands. That's it, you're not in there trying to out trade today, next year, because he did 20, you're only looking for the choice |
197 | 00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:59,070 | setups to Cherry, okay, the cream of the crop, you want the best, okay. That's what a trader does. We don't like to get in there a whole lot. We don't like a |
198 | 00:31:59,070 --> 00:32:06,360 | lot of frequency. Okay, the more you trade, the more likely you're going to take a loss. I don't like losing. So that's a trade that I'm hopefully instilling |
199 | 00:32:06,390 --> 00:32:17,910 | upon all of you is, I have a disdain for losing. I hate it, I absolutely loathe it. Now, you can say that's egotistical. No, I am pursuing excellence. And I |
200 | 00:32:17,910 --> 00:32:27,630 | need to have that as my goal. Because if I consistently do that, the byproduct is excellence. It may not be perfection, but I'm way ahead of the pack in terms |
201 | 00:32:27,630 --> 00:32:38,040 | of what everyone else is doing, and what everyone is expecting to do. Okay, so these are the numbers, this is what we build the millionaire mindset with this, |
202 | 00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:47,040 | the frame a 90%, success rate, you start low, you build, you're up to a next grade of two to one setup and three to one setup and afford one. And then |
203 | 00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:56,820 | obviously, you know, if you're trading with a higher timeframe premise, okay, you can use these setups to pay out, you know, 810 1215 to one, and that's long |
204 | 00:32:56,820 --> 00:33:06,780 | term position trading, which we are not teaching here, but you'll learn that in the latter portions of the market maker series that you can, man, you can really |
205 | 00:33:06,780 --> 00:33:14,460 | do a whole lot better than what we're showing here, and not trade a whole lot. So you don't need to have Day Traders Mindset. And you'll again, you'll learn |
206 | 00:33:14,460 --> 00:33:20,910 | all that. But for now, I'm just trying to stimulate your arm, your thought process as it relates to trading with a high degree of accuracy, and still |
207 | 00:33:20,910 --> 00:33:29,070 | utilizing some of the equity management concepts that I teach. So let's go over to the charts and start looking at what it is technically, we do with all this |
208 | 00:33:29,490 --> 00:33:43,380 | new boring stuff, and how to apply it to the charts and how we can move towards 9% setups. Okay, guys, we're looking at a, a crude diagram, I know. But it's a |
209 | 00:33:43,380 --> 00:33:54,840 | lot of information on this chart. And either kind of like spelled out for you can kind of decipher it for you. But, again, it's it's meant for you to draw |
210 | 00:33:54,840 --> 00:34:05,880 | your own notes from my dialog, and some of the things that we're going to talk about with this. It's very easy for you guys to screen capture, just take a |
211 | 00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:15,390 | control. I think it's print screen, I'm not sure what you're using in terms of computers. But if you do a screen capture of the chart, or diagram here and use |
212 | 00:34:15,390 --> 00:34:27,300 | it for your notes, you could draw all kinds of notations on it as well. But we'll want to talk about is it's going to be limited to a cell scenario in this |
213 | 00:34:27,300 --> 00:34:36,120 | diagram, because I didn't take the time to reverse all this to show you everything for by side. But we're going to show examples in the chart. That's |
214 | 00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:44,070 | why I went with this example, because it gives you a contrast between what it looks like graphically for sales scenarios. And then we're going to show you in |
215 | 00:34:44,070 --> 00:34:54,240 | the charts buying scenarios because of what we did last week in Twitter and what we anticipated. It's a low recently in fiber and cable. So again, I the way I |
216 | 00:34:54,240 --> 00:35:06,990 | learned charting it came from my mentor les Williams, he As the first one that really had a major installment to my understanding of price action, it didn't |
217 | 00:35:06,990 --> 00:35:19,110 | stop there, obviously off went on to learn a greater degree of price action analysis. And I certainly am thankful for what I'd learned from Larry, but just |
218 | 00:35:19,110 --> 00:35:27,510 | like you're learning with me, I don't know, when you're watching these videos, I mean, it could be 30 years from the time I actually made them. And there may be |
219 | 00:35:27,510 --> 00:35:34,020 | some new information, if you if only stuck with what I'm teaching, I mean, there's going to be something else that's, you know, greater understanding, I'm |
220 | 00:35:34,020 --> 00:35:42,750 | sure, that will be revealed by some other party or some other entity. But as it relates, right now, you're looking at the best of the best. Okay, so looking at |
221 | 00:35:43,350 --> 00:35:55,500 | the chart here, this is all basically the same information, okay. And I'm showing you more or less in evolution on how I in internalize the price action, |
222 | 00:35:55,950 --> 00:35:59,190 | and how I saw on an institutional price level. |
223 | 00:36:00,570 --> 00:36:09,060 | When I was in that, that realm, where you're seeing the banks doing this, and when you're seeing the large institutions doing this, and you're actually being |
224 | 00:36:09,300 --> 00:36:20,700 | able to see when they're doing their action of getting in and getting out. Okay, and then having what I knew in price action of looking at charts, it became so |
225 | 00:36:20,700 --> 00:36:30,000 | clear what was going on. It just, it's like the veil parted right then in there. So I'm probably the only one that's uniquely in this position where I've been, |
226 | 00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:42,750 | first a, what you would consider a nobody in terms of trading. I mean, I started grassroots man, I'm talking like, really, really nothing. I mean, I had no idea |
227 | 00:36:42,990 --> 00:36:52,020 | what I was doing at all. And it's amazing how my life took all the turns where it did that lead me to where I'm at today, because if you were told me when I |
228 | 00:36:52,020 --> 00:37:00,720 | was a kid, I was gonna be doing this, I would have laughed at you said there's no way. But the way I learned trading and understood price action was on this |
229 | 00:37:01,050 --> 00:37:12,870 | format right here, open High, Low, Close. Now I still favor this, okay, in terms of understanding where price is going to be going either on an intraday basis, |
230 | 00:37:12,870 --> 00:37:21,900 | or even a higher timeframe basis, because my eyes are not as strong as they used to be because I stare at charts all the time. But a lot of time and new |
231 | 00:37:21,900 --> 00:37:32,400 | sometimes as much as 13 hours a day. In my earlier use six or seven years, I was just way too much time in the charts. I think I did more damage to myself then |
232 | 00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:44,610 | and then good. But the same information we see with an open a small little rally up a large range down, making the low the day in a closed off the low. This is |
233 | 00:37:44,610 --> 00:37:57,540 | your typical down closed day. Okay, or distribution day? What my mentor would teach, and I may I may not, I don't know, we'll see at the end of this |
234 | 00:37:57,900 --> 00:38:07,080 | production around editing time. If I'm going to include an example of something that, like Larry Williams teaches, if not, I'll I'll share it in either a |
235 | 00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:16,860 | Twitter series of a couple tweets that way. But so don't hold me hold me don't hold me to it. Okay, they may not be installed in this particular teaching, but |
236 | 00:38:17,100 --> 00:38:24,840 | in Twitter, or some of the forums that I haunt. Also a couple of things up and again, it's not to kick the legs off with anything, my mentor, I'm not trying to |
237 | 00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:33,840 | be disrespectful, I'm just showing you don't stop learning. Don't ever stop learning. You're always going to learn regardless if you get new material, but |
238 | 00:38:33,870 --> 00:38:42,630 | you need to always be flexible and allow yourself to learn. And if I had not, if I hadn't done that, you know, I would have been probably unsuccessful trading. |
239 | 00:38:42,660 --> 00:38:54,690 | I'll be honest and tell you that. But Larry Williams gave me the framework with the idea that he put out there in a teaching session that he said that, you |
240 | 00:38:54,690 --> 00:39:05,460 | know, the buyer, I'm sorry, the sellers, above the opening price. He wished he knew these people up here. Well, he wishes he knew us, because that's what we |
241 | 00:39:05,460 --> 00:39:14,550 | teach. We've been teaching it for five years. And foreign exchange markets. Okay. And I've been trading it since. Officially, I've been trading it since |
242 | 00:39:14,550 --> 00:39:19,110 | 2002. That's when it became known to me |
243 | 00:39:20,490 --> 00:39:27,540 | how exactly I was looking for consistently. I had hints of knowing what to look for before that, but it was like anything else I was like I thought was an |
244 | 00:39:27,540 --> 00:39:36,450 | aberration where it once in a while it worked. And then once I've just sat down with folks that were actually doing the institutional bank trading, and they |
245 | 00:39:36,450 --> 00:39:46,350 | told me what they're doing with the real orders. Then it was very clear, you know, what was missing and Larry's understanding is is he didn't know what the |
246 | 00:39:46,350 --> 00:39:56,640 | point of this little move was for. And that's the need to trip pending orders. Law buyers in the marketplace and it also is main mainly is to seek the |
247 | 00:39:56,640 --> 00:40:11,010 | liquidity to allow the shorts to come in before this Long range starts to unfold. So my, my mentor Larry would require, okay, about 20% Maybe, I think if |
248 | 00:40:11,010 --> 00:40:19,920 | I'm if if memory serves me correctly, about 20% of the average daily range, he would subtract that and kind of I would say it's 100 pips for daily range |
249 | 00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:28,500 | average. He would take 20 pips, not the traded Forex, okay? Because if you really read anything he says he doesn't like foreign exchange because he thinks |
250 | 00:40:28,500 --> 00:40:34,830 | that overcoming a spread is ridiculous. He would rather pay commission, I would rather pay the spread, because I know how to overcome it quickly. But |
251 | 00:40:34,830 --> 00:40:41,880 | nonetheless, we're going to say that, here's the opening price and the essay, the average daily range is 100 pips. And again, we're not gonna argue the case |
252 | 00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:54,210 | there, but we're gonna use that as the assumption 20 pips below the opening price he'll sell there. Now. To me, that doesn't make any sense. In retrospect, |
253 | 00:40:54,240 --> 00:41:06,330 | it made absolutely no sense. Once I learned what I'm teaching you, because this could retrace back up to the Asian range low or the opening price and create an |
254 | 00:41:06,330 --> 00:41:17,640 | additional selling point. Why would you open yourself up to all that? Needless risk? Okay. So what we teach is that we want to sell when it's rallying at the |
255 | 00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:28,230 | beginning of the day, or intraday sometime, okay? You want to be selling when it rallies. Why? Because it's returning back to a known area of selling pressure, |
256 | 00:41:28,470 --> 00:41:42,060 | ie, a bearish order block, ie a mitigation block. That's it. Okay. So now, we are not selling on weakness. We're selling on strength, because we understand |
257 | 00:41:42,060 --> 00:41:50,910 | that the strength is most likely false. It's a suspect rally. That's why we dubbed this the Judas swing, the initial rally up from the opening, okay, that's |
258 | 00:41:50,910 --> 00:41:59,070 | the fake out to make everyone believe, okay, that's going to keep going higher, because it usually happens in a real quick, sharp movement. But it's only moving |
259 | 00:41:59,070 --> 00:42:07,350 | sharply because there's no orders there. And they're going to pair up the orders up to which we can't see here. But above the opening price, there may may be a |
260 | 00:42:07,410 --> 00:42:17,850 | you know, bearish order block or mitigation block up there. Okay, or liquidity pool at which they reach up into to take stops. That's all there is guys. Write |
261 | 00:42:17,850 --> 00:42:28,620 | that on your notepad right now. To go short, you're only looking for an area of liquidity. That means it liquidity pool, what's going to work in that scenario? |
262 | 00:42:29,490 --> 00:42:39,810 | A turtle soup cell. Okay, or if you're familiar with Larry Williams, I'm sorry, if you're familiar with Chris Laurie. His Riptide reversal, very similar to the |
263 | 00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:49,980 | turtle soup pattern. It's found in street smarts book. Okay, that pattern works wonderful in that in that regard. Or you can look for the price to trade up into |
264 | 00:42:50,010 --> 00:42:58,770 | a bearish order block on a higher timeframe. Okay, or run a previous day's high. Okay, or return to a previous day's low. |
265 | 00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:12,870 | Or we trade up into a mitigation block. Okay, maybe this was an area which on a longer term price swing price has moved down. And this allowed it to move up |
266 | 00:43:12,870 --> 00:43:23,250 | into an area where they saw an earlier buying opportunity that didn't pan out and now return to that area. Okay, so there's some trade remorse there. Okay, |
267 | 00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:34,920 | that's it. There's your scenarios. That's all you ever need. Those four scenarios, okay, that that's what sets up the primer for a down move. And it |
268 | 00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:42,360 | doesn't matter what time frame you're trading, it could be intraday, like we're talking here, or it could be on a weekly basis, it can be on a monthly basis. |
269 | 00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:50,160 | Okay. And obviously, the higher timeframe you go to more more magnitudes with price move, and large terms of pips will be acquired and harvested by through |
270 | 00:43:50,460 --> 00:44:01,320 | those payouts. But the idea is we look for the opening price when it's bearish. And wouldn't when is it bearish? Well, the highest probabilities are when we're |
271 | 00:44:01,320 --> 00:44:14,220 | looking at higher timeframe monthly, weekly, daily. And for our order blocks bearishly key key resistance levels that are converging with mitigation blocks, |
272 | 00:44:14,670 --> 00:44:23,100 | okay, optimal trade entries, you know, you converging with those types of things. And, you know, liquidity pools where the obvious trend is still down, |
273 | 00:44:23,100 --> 00:44:29,910 | but it hasn't had an retracement in a while. So what we're going to reach for they're gonna reach for the stops because they want to get new buyers in to get |
274 | 00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:39,240 | short against they're gonna pair orders to allow the buyers to get chipped in on the marketplace, and then they're going to be selling right into that rally for |
275 | 00:44:39,240 --> 00:44:49,110 | the next new leg price lower. Okay. And I know some of you are maybe watching this for the first time and didn't see my other video series and you're still |
276 | 00:44:49,110 --> 00:44:55,050 | scratching your head saying this doesn't make any sense. This is too vague, Michael, it is vague. It's vague for you because you haven't gone through all |
277 | 00:44:55,050 --> 00:45:00,960 | the other stuff. But if you go through my other stuff, everything I'm saying to you now makes absolute sense to you. You know Well, what I'm talking about now, |
278 | 00:45:00,960 --> 00:45:07,260 | and we have common language, so don't be discouraged if you're watching this video without having an understanding of the things I'm discussing, because it's |
279 | 00:45:07,260 --> 00:45:14,100 | all in the videos I've already presented. Okay, so if you haven't gone through that, please don't send me tweets. What is this? And what is that? I'm just |
280 | 00:45:14,100 --> 00:45:21,660 | going to be upset and send you a tweet, say please go to the videos that's on my tutorial page. Okay, cuz I understand everybody wants to get in front of the |
281 | 00:45:21,660 --> 00:45:29,820 | line, but doesn't work with me. Okay, so with all respect, obviously, but just understand that, you know, I'm put a lot of work into the videos, I'm expecting |
282 | 00:45:29,820 --> 00:45:37,920 | you put a lot of work in the learning, and it cost you nothing but the time and I'll let you argue whether or not it's worth it or not. But the opening price |
283 | 00:45:37,980 --> 00:45:47,730 | and the rally up, okay, and then down, down close, this little move here. The low to the close this price action, I'm gonna tell you exactly when it happens. |
284 | 00:45:48,000 --> 00:46:04,440 | You ready? Write this down. This is all ICT time, New York time. 10 o'clock in the morning to 12 Noon. 70 75% of time, that's when this low was formed. Okay, |
285 | 00:46:04,440 --> 00:46:16,140 | then you had to close? What's the close? Well, I look at the close as 1900 GMT, that's the close of the day. Now the last little bit of when it doesn't make the |
286 | 00:46:16,140 --> 00:46:24,450 | load say continues going lower, and it's going lower past mid, mid day like noon, and it's still dropping, making fresh lows, it will make the low between |
287 | 00:46:24,870 --> 00:46:37,290 | 18 119 100 GMT, that hour, at 90 100 hours, boom at the end of the day. Now why am I saying that? Because remember, there's FOMC minutes and announces come out |
288 | 00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:48,210 | two o'clock in the afternoon in New York time. That's why we use it. So now you know when to anticipate that late in the day factor but generally 70% of time |
289 | 00:46:48,210 --> 00:46:57,030 | between 10 o'clock in the morning to noon. This is when that low is formed all this price action below the close is happening or basically the low the days |
290 | 00:46:57,030 --> 00:47:06,570 | between 10 o'clock in the morning and noon, New York time. There you go. Okay, when is the high that day forming between two o'clock and four o'clock in the |
291 | 00:47:06,570 --> 00:47:16,680 | morning New York time. Now think about this guys. If we're bearish based on the moving averages, say they say they're stacking into going lower on a daily |
292 | 00:47:16,680 --> 00:47:25,080 | chart, okay. And the four hours moved up into an area of bearishness and they've just recently left a bearish order block and now you're expecting what to |
293 | 00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:31,890 | happen. range expansion to the lower downside, okay. When you anticipate the lower |
294 | 00:47:33,510 --> 00:47:43,350 | price objectives that's below price, okay. So support level that price may be reaching for if you are looking at higher timeframe price charts, like the |
295 | 00:47:43,350 --> 00:47:52,050 | monthly weekly, daily four hour in that vein, in other words, looking for price trading to lower levels that it's not trading to Now, what that does internally |
296 | 00:47:52,050 --> 00:48:01,500 | or it should be doing for you is saying okay, well price should be reaching lower on a higher timeframe price chart, so I shouldn't be shaken out. Within |
297 | 00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:10,530 | intraday rallying, I should look at that as what selling opportunities. And when you couple that with bare shoulder blocks, mitigation blocks, optimal trade |
298 | 00:48:10,530 --> 00:48:20,850 | entries, and turtle soups with liquidity pool raids, boom, it's over. And the game that's it, game over, done. It's a lock, you know exactly what you're |
299 | 00:48:20,850 --> 00:48:27,360 | doing. You know, the script, you know what the unit the players are doing. And you're just waiting for your time to get in there and do what they're supposed |
300 | 00:48:27,360 --> 00:48:37,200 | to be doing. If they're going to be looking to sell you want to be on the back end set. Simple as that. Now graphically, what we see in charting mostly in my |
301 | 00:48:37,200 --> 00:48:45,030 | in my work now it because it's easy for me to describe and show and see it's easier my eyes. The same thing in this candle is the same thing as depicted in |
302 | 00:48:45,120 --> 00:48:55,170 | the open High, Low, Close. The opening prices here, it makes that little wick higher here. Okay, and then you had this big range down, it makes the low that |
303 | 00:48:55,170 --> 00:49:05,880 | you see here, then it comes up and closes here. The same information here is what you see here. But teaching wise, I like this style here because it gives |
304 | 00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:14,190 | you a graphic depiction, depiction of what it is that's going on internally, the opening price to false rally, everyone gets thinking, Okay, it's bullish, I'm |
305 | 00:49:14,190 --> 00:49:22,170 | not thinking that you're not thinking that if we're in a bearish model, okay, and then price slams down, and it extends, extends, extends extends until when |
306 | 00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:31,890 | between 10 o'clock and noon. Most of the time you'll see it by 11 o'clock in the morning. Okay. But by noon, London's you know, they're closing shop, everyone's |
307 | 00:49:31,890 --> 00:49:39,930 | going home. Here it is okay, but the bulk of the move is between two o'clock in the morning, and 10 o'clock in the morning. That's the bulk of the daily range. |
308 | 00:49:39,930 --> 00:49:47,250 | Now, don't take my word for it. This is the point of this video. start marking off two o'clock in the morning, New York time. And 10 o'clock in the morning, |
309 | 00:49:47,340 --> 00:49:55,050 | New York time. And you tell me if that's not the bulk of the daily ranges. Now, yes, you can go to websites and everyone talks about the trading sessions. Oh, |
310 | 00:49:55,050 --> 00:50:03,390 | that's common knowledge, Michael. But what have you done with it? Think about we all Know When London starts we all know when Asia starts we all know when New |
311 | 00:50:03,390 --> 00:50:13,260 | York starts. But how's it happened to increase your profitability? No one you were ever learning but never come into knowledge of the truth. Okay, so the |
312 | 00:50:13,260 --> 00:50:23,070 | bottom line is, is I'm giving you what you've never seen given in one, one shot. I'm doing it right here. So now we're gonna take one step further, how are you |
313 | 00:50:23,070 --> 00:50:31,950 | going to internalize this market event that you would anticipate seeing? Okay, because, again, we're assuming this is a daily daily range. Okay. I'm not sure |
314 | 00:50:31,950 --> 00:50:43,710 | if I said that earlier. But that's it. This is depicting a theoretical down day. Okay, this is a daily bar. This is a daily candle. Okay. Graphically, what you |
315 | 00:50:43,710 --> 00:50:51,330 | would anticipate seeing is this the opening price, which is the same price at the top of the candles body and the opening price, the left tick of the open, |
316 | 00:50:51,330 --> 00:51:00,960 | high, low close bar, the opening price, we understand what that opening is. Okay. It's majority the time it's going to be midnight time in New York. But it |
317 | 00:51:00,960 --> 00:51:12,240 | can be if your pairs are Asia sensitive. It can be zero GMT. We're going to see an expect a rally from that opening price up. Now how much of a rally will we |
318 | 00:51:12,240 --> 00:51:24,360 | anticipate a average of 30 pips or less or less? Okay, so now, what do you do with that information? You can actually take the opening price and as you see |
319 | 00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:32,400 | the opening price at midnight, Well Michael, I can't be up at that time and trade London you don't need to. You don't need to do that. All you need is the |
320 | 00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:43,200 | opening price here. Okay, and add 30 pips to it. Whatever that 30 pips is, then go back over in the left side of the chart and find is there any Confluence |
321 | 00:51:43,230 --> 00:51:53,100 | inside of the 30 pips from the opening price up to the highest point at which the range of 30 pips would be added to the opening price? Is there a confluence |
322 | 00:51:53,100 --> 00:52:00,390 | of a mitigation block a bearish order block? Or would that raid any key previous day's intraday high or daily |
323 | 00:52:00,390 --> 00:52:10,980 | high? Think the scenarios we talked about that leads up to the Judas swing over here when we were talking about this bar. That's what you apply here. Okay, it's |
324 | 00:52:10,980 --> 00:52:22,470 | limited to 30 pips now there will be days where it only goes up eight or nine pips. And then it takes off, okay? That will be missed opportunities, a lot of |
325 | 00:52:22,470 --> 00:52:30,300 | times for folks that want to set and forget a limit, order, sell, okay, and then go back to bed and wake up for their nine to five job in the States or wherever |
326 | 00:52:30,300 --> 00:52:38,880 | they work. But for those guys that want to be awake and watch it real time, which is even if you do one day, per week, if you just invest a little bit of |
327 | 00:52:38,910 --> 00:52:47,580 | lost sleep, you know, on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, the dividends that it pays guys, I cannot tell you, it's amazing what you learn by seeing it real time. |
328 | 00:52:47,790 --> 00:52:55,470 | It's one thing seeing it on the chart after it's happened, you know, in the morning after, but when you see it live, you learn a whole lot, because you'll |
329 | 00:52:55,470 --> 00:53:03,480 | see why it looks so exciting to retail world and really seeing this rally up like this real quick. And it makes you think, Oh man, it's taken off. I want to |
330 | 00:53:03,510 --> 00:53:13,020 | join in. Yeah, you do. You want to look to sell into that. Okay, so you'll sell into it and you'll look to obtain the London high. And again, we understand that |
331 | 00:53:13,020 --> 00:53:21,630 | usually is between two o'clock and four o'clock in the morning, New York time, but it can happen as early as one aim and his latest 5am. Okay, but by far and |
332 | 00:53:21,630 --> 00:53:29,070 | large, if you just look between two o'clock and four o'clock in the morning, with this event taking place here rallying up no more than 30 pips average into |
333 | 00:53:29,070 --> 00:53:39,510 | a previous order block that's bearish, a previous mitigation block a scenario where it would run a previous short term high where stops would be clearly being |
334 | 00:53:39,510 --> 00:53:47,880 | trailed, if it's been moving lower. Okay, and we understand that the opening price is not going to see 30 pips 50 pips, then off your 60 pips and then go |
335 | 00:53:47,880 --> 00:53:55,920 | lower. It doesn't happen like that. Okay. Can it happen on some weird news? Yeah, but it doesn't happen as a steady diet. And again, I'm telling you to do |
336 | 00:53:55,920 --> 00:54:04,200 | not trust what I'm saying. I want you to look at the chart and prove, if I'm saying what I'm saying is true. And you're going to clearly see that this is |
337 | 00:54:04,230 --> 00:54:14,640 | lightyears ahead of everything else. Because what is it doing? It's telling you what to do, when to do it, how to do it and why it works. That's every question |
338 | 00:54:14,640 --> 00:54:21,300 | every moment wants to when they buy a book or a course and go to a seminar. But how many are they walking out of there after the purchase reading the book or |
339 | 00:54:21,300 --> 00:54:29,340 | the seminar feeling that they got what they went in there looking for. I can tell you I've wasted a lot of time and money with things that looked really good |
340 | 00:54:29,340 --> 00:54:42,630 | and shiny and new up, you know, the opportunity was was well sold. Okay, but when I got in there, it didn't deliver. Okay, so hopefully, I mean, this is some |
341 | 00:54:42,630 --> 00:54:50,670 | real high end stuff here. Okay, but if you don't take the effort of looking at it and studying it, you won't appreciate it at all. And you won't see it for how |
342 | 00:54:50,670 --> 00:55:03,270 | good it really is. Now, you're probably looking up here in this box. Okay, and what I'm utilizing this for is think of the day As a tank of gas, okay, or |
343 | 00:55:03,300 --> 00:55:12,720 | that's a better analogy would be a battery. Okay, so at the beginning of the day at the opening price, we're gonna say, just for the sake of argument, we're |
344 | 00:55:12,720 --> 00:55:22,740 | gonna stick to the midnight candles opening price in New York. Okay? Yes, you could use the dear GMT. But for now just for instance, we're going to use it you |
345 | 00:55:22,740 --> 00:55:34,530 | from 12 Midnight candles opening price, the battery is now full, we have full battery, okay and that means the time of day or the duration of what volatility |
346 | 00:55:34,530 --> 00:55:47,790 | that will take place for that particular day is it has that much time value or not value at time duration in it. Okay, and we view around noon time, generally |
347 | 00:55:47,820 --> 00:55:57,480 | noon time is the end of the day. And that would be depicted by the right side of the box here and the beginning of the boxes denoting the full battery or full |
348 | 00:55:57,480 --> 00:56:05,010 | tank of gas that would deplete over time. So as London happens we've you know, we've only depleted a small portion we have all this |
349 | 00:56:07,380 --> 00:56:15,780 | a battery or tank of gas for any volatility that would take place for that day. We still have time for all those things to take place. And then we get down to |
350 | 00:56:15,780 --> 00:56:25,230 | when price would expand go lower. Okay. There'll be a small little retracement between five o'clock in the morning and 7am Now think about what I just told |
351 | 00:56:25,230 --> 00:56:35,070 | you. Okay. There's going to be a small retracement. This is all ICT time New York time. There will be a small retracement generally between 5am to 7am. |
352 | 00:56:35,280 --> 00:56:43,950 | Generally, okay, and in that retracement and it can go as late as eight in the morning sometimes, because there's may be some news announcements, maybe some |
353 | 00:56:43,950 --> 00:56:53,340 | effects happening in the bond market. Okay, that may have to be factored in. So I guess really the rule would be 5am to 8am. Okay, but really be sensitive to |
354 | 00:56:53,340 --> 00:57:06,120 | five to 7am. That retracement into the range that had started from London. Okay. Now at that time, we have about a little bit less than half of the daily battery |
355 | 00:57:06,150 --> 00:57:24,420 | used up. Okay. I'm sorry, more than half of the matter used, we have less than half of the daily ranges lifespan you left. What that means is, you'll see a |
356 | 00:57:24,420 --> 00:57:36,450 | acceleration in New York to make its move faster. Okay, then you see what happens in London? And what is it moving towards, it's moving to go down into an |
357 | 00:57:36,450 --> 00:57:46,500 | area of anticipated value. Now value can come in a lot of different forms, it can come in the form of a higher timeframe support level, which we're not noting |
358 | 00:57:46,500 --> 00:57:54,270 | here, but can be okay. It could be the average daily range. Now, what's the average daily range, we use a five day average daily range. And there's an |
359 | 00:57:54,270 --> 00:58:03,990 | indicator that I use to calculate that I am not going into the mathematics to arrive at that. But nonetheless, you know, it's a quick, easy. It's an |
360 | 00:58:04,020 --> 00:58:17,490 | application I apply to Mt four. And you can you understand now why I like Mt four because really, it's the average daily range tool that I use for it. And it |
361 | 00:58:17,490 --> 00:58:26,820 | gives me my basis of what's where I looked to see the ADR for that day. Not that I'm trading with Mt four with my live accounts. But nonetheless, you know why I |
362 | 00:58:26,850 --> 00:58:35,130 | still hold true and loyal to Mt. Four, because really outside of that it's a very archaic trading platform, but it's still nonetheless, it's a good teaching |
363 | 00:58:35,130 --> 00:58:46,710 | platform. But the New York session, okay, it will retrace up into around that seven o'clock to eight o'clock in the morning timeframe. Okay, so now we've now |
364 | 00:58:46,710 --> 00:58:57,780 | mapped out times for all these things. Okay. When's the last time you read a book, okay, or listen to some guy talking about, you know, supply and demand, or |
365 | 00:58:57,780 --> 00:59:03,960 | anything like that, to tell you exactly when to anticipate those things. Because it's one thing to show a chart, say, Okay, here's a supply level, here's a |
366 | 00:59:03,960 --> 00:59:10,470 | demand level, and we're going to expect this or that. I'm telling you when it's going to happen. I'm telling you exactly when it's going to happen. And it |
367 | 00:59:10,470 --> 00:59:22,380 | repeats all the time, all the time. The key is to get these 90% setups, okay, if you're looking for this scenario, when the higher timeframe charts suggest to |
368 | 00:59:22,380 --> 00:59:31,320 | him, we're gonna look at some of those in a moment. When they suggest the idea of to anticipate this type of event. Then it's like, it literally is like |
369 | 00:59:31,320 --> 00:59:42,150 | walking up to a tree and just pouring free to off and just enjoying yourself, but not gorging yourself, okay? Don't run in to that tree and wind yourself |
370 | 00:59:42,150 --> 00:59:49,860 | before you. You get there because you won't be able to enjoy it. Once you get there to get you'll be too far to breath to actually pick the fruit and enjoy |
371 | 00:59:49,860 --> 00:59:59,490 | it. Okay, so again, don't rush and don't don't gorge. Okay, that means don't trade before the setups actually come and Don't risk more than you should. Okay, |
372 | 01:00:01,230 --> 01:00:09,240 | The low down here. Again, we identified that between 10 o'clock and noon, New York time, that's what this little bounce will be. And then the market will do |
373 | 01:00:09,240 --> 01:00:19,410 | what? It'll go sideways. It doesn't stop trading, it just goes sideways, until we get to the new day, around 25 o'clock, six o'clock in the morning, five, six |
374 | 01:00:19,410 --> 01:00:31,440 | o'clock in the evening, New York time, we start a new day and he starts doing its thing again in Asia. Okay. We've just mapped out graphically what the day |
375 | 01:00:31,440 --> 01:00:41,820 | looks like when it's a down day. We identified the times a day and what those times of the day are important for. Now, let's go back to the idea of 30 pips. |
376 | 01:00:42,810 --> 01:00:49,320 | If we risked 30 pips, okay, initially up here, say |
377 | 01:00:50,580 --> 01:01:01,080 | there was a bearish order block above this opening price about 20 pips above it. Okay, we could risk going in with a limit order selling short at whatever |
378 | 01:01:01,080 --> 01:01:06,840 | particular price that would be denoted by the order block, which we don't have here. But we're under the assumption there's something that's bearish up here. |
379 | 01:01:07,530 --> 01:01:15,420 | Price would rally above the opening price as we would anticipate, not chase, we would anticipate this happening then when we see it happening. It's fitting the |
380 | 01:01:15,420 --> 01:01:24,960 | script that we would have internalized on our idea of we would expect for a down day. Well, it's above the opening price would go sell short right there. Okay, |
381 | 01:01:25,020 --> 01:01:34,110 | now, if we sold short 20 pips above the opening price, and we're going to risk 30, watch what's going on. Here's 20 pips above the opening price plus 30. More |
382 | 01:01:34,140 --> 01:01:44,100 | from that price point. that's outside the scope of a traditional price swing on a down day, when the opening price opens. It's not going to go 50 pips higher |
383 | 01:01:44,220 --> 01:01:53,760 | than go lower. 20 I mean, sorry. 300 pips generally won't do it. Okay, won't do that. Can it happen sometimes? Absolutely. Will you take a lot of antsy when it |
384 | 01:01:53,760 --> 01:02:01,350 | does do that, absolutely. It's going to happen, promise, a guarantee it's going to happen. And you're going to remember me telling you, it's going to happen. |
385 | 01:02:01,650 --> 01:02:10,740 | But you should remember also, by far and large, statistically, you're gonna see it's not happening much. So can you whether you're getting punched in the face, |
386 | 01:02:11,460 --> 01:02:19,470 | or punched in the gut, or have yourself tripped up, or lose a little bit of money, because we're how much we lose in one and a half percent. If you can't |
387 | 01:02:19,470 --> 01:02:28,110 | weather one and a half percent loss, turn this video off, don't ever trade. Don't ever do it, don't ever even consider it. Because you're going to take a |
388 | 01:02:28,110 --> 01:02:35,670 | loss, absolutely guaranteed you're gonna happen and period it's and the story done, you're going to have a loss. Now, because I promised you you're gonna take |
389 | 01:02:35,670 --> 01:02:45,150 | a loss, you shouldn't be scared that it's going to happen. You should anticipate it's limited to one and a half percent. And you anticipate that you have a |
390 | 01:02:45,150 --> 01:02:54,450 | system that will show you trade setups that will ferret out winning scenarios that far outweigh the losers that you will incur, because you're going to incur |
391 | 01:02:54,450 --> 01:03:04,680 | losses, guaranteed. Okay, but how big will your wins be initially? If you sell up here, okay, I'm sorry. So up here with 30 pip stop above it, essentially, |
392 | 01:03:04,680 --> 01:03:13,740 | theoretically, that would be in that example 50 pips away from the opening price, the likelihood of the opening price and and seeing 50 pips up, then down |
393 | 01:03:13,740 --> 01:03:28,140 | close is highly unlikely, highly unlikely. London usually reaches up out 2030 pips runs a previous stop, or goes into an order block or into a key level of |
394 | 01:03:28,140 --> 01:03:39,690 | resistance, and then you see the dive. Okay, so if you're trading up here short, does it have to go all the way down here to get your 30 pips? No. It doesn't |
395 | 01:03:39,690 --> 01:03:42,780 | even have to make the low in New York to get your 30 pips. |
396 | 01:03:44,580 --> 01:03:54,810 | Wow, think about that. You can make 30 pips without actually spending a whole lot of time in the marketplace and surgically make surgical strikes, knowing |
397 | 01:03:54,810 --> 01:04:01,980 | when to get in, where to get out. Okay, and I'm telling you don't skip over saying, Well, I'm gonna have a trade day trading. Now I'm like, I'm not going to |
398 | 01:04:01,980 --> 01:04:09,510 | do to One to One, I'm not going to do that. I'm just gonna look for my three to one or four to 151. Don't do that. You're gonna do a huge disservice to |
399 | 01:04:09,510 --> 01:04:19,560 | yourself. Trust me when I tell you that. Learn to crawl before you walk. Because you're never going to run it as higher level returns monthly. Without learning |
400 | 01:04:19,560 --> 01:04:26,910 | first a crawl. You are not going to have the foundation and I know, I know. There's gonna be a large degree of you guys are just plugging your ears right |
401 | 01:04:26,910 --> 01:04:37,800 | now. But I'm telling you, you will not make millions of dollars. Think about what I'm telling you. You will not make millions of dollars trying to get ahead |
402 | 01:04:37,800 --> 01:04:49,380 | of the line. It will happen. I tried that game. Trust me. When I had to do it all over again. Start all over with a fresh mindset. It did not take long. It |
403 | 01:04:49,380 --> 01:04:59,130 | doesn't take long for you to actually see the fruits of your labor. Okay, and trust me. Don't you really want to know beyond a shadow of a doubt what you're |
404 | 01:04:59,130 --> 01:05:08,400 | doing works and you're comfortable with it. And you know it intimately. That's the, that's the benefit of doing that setup of looking for one to one initially, |
405 | 01:05:08,550 --> 01:05:14,640 | again, it's not about making the money initially, when you're first learning these concepts. If you're just wanting my stuff to try to make a lot of money |
406 | 01:05:14,640 --> 01:05:22,830 | right from the start, you forget it, you're going to lose, and you'll blame me say my stuff is full of crap. But it's you that's being lazy. You need to apply |
407 | 01:05:22,830 --> 01:05:30,150 | the time, and go through the drills and go through the exercises, because that's what teaches you, it's not me sending Twitter account setups or giving you |
408 | 01:05:30,150 --> 01:05:38,520 | levels or giving you videos, okay? It's you applying the concepts and tools, okay, correctly over time and seeing when they're not working for you, and |
409 | 01:05:38,520 --> 01:05:46,890 | understand why you saw it like this and why you thought like that. And when it really starts to gel with you, and you internalize it, then that's it. No one's |
410 | 01:05:46,890 --> 01:05:52,800 | ever going to shake you. Nobody, then you're done. It's safe for you to go on the forums, because you can go in and say, This guy's full of crap you don't |
411 | 01:05:52,800 --> 01:05:57,960 | know he's talking about, okay, he's not going to convince me I don't know how I'm doing during one person after the world's gonna tell me I don't know what |
412 | 01:05:57,960 --> 01:06:04,500 | I'm doing. I know exactly what I'm doing. And I can talk to people that say they've been doing it longer than I have. My mentor has been doing it twice as |
413 | 01:06:04,500 --> 01:06:14,550 | long as I have more than twice. Okay. But I can I am honestly convinced in my heart that I can trade better than him. Did I take 10,000 hours to $2 million in |
414 | 01:06:14,550 --> 01:06:21,870 | a year? Yes, I said $2 million, because that's exactly what he did. 97 got hurt a little bit, in closing out for 1.2 million. But the average |
415 | 01:06:23,280 --> 01:06:31,890 | margin for the s&p back then was really, really, really low. It was extremely, extremely low, I guarantee you couldn't do it now. So bottom line is, is this, |
416 | 01:06:32,820 --> 01:06:41,790 | you're going to be a better trader than me if you do these things. And I'm okay with that. In fact, I'm excited. Because that's the whole reason why I'm asking |
417 | 01:06:41,790 --> 01:06:49,860 | all you guys to learn it, and then keep in contact with me, I'm not selling you any of this stuff. I didn't sell any of this, I could sell this uncertainty, I |
418 | 01:06:49,860 --> 01:06:57,630 | could sell this for a lot of money. And I would probably get a lot of money sent to me. But I don't want to deal with billing and all that stuff. I don't care |
419 | 01:06:57,630 --> 01:07:07,440 | about all that. What I want to see is the life changing Eve effect that it has. And I want to know how you guys develop because I know somebody that's listening |
420 | 01:07:07,440 --> 01:07:15,150 | to my voice now is going to outdo me. And that's what I'm doing this for. I'm not the guy doing videos and trying to look down there by saying I'm looking at |
421 | 01:07:15,150 --> 01:07:26,640 | me up, I'm a mama's throne. That's not what this is. I'm trying to lift you guys up to go higher than I have. Because I'm telling you, what I've done is just a |
422 | 01:07:26,640 --> 01:07:36,030 | little scratching the surface of what's capable for someone that started like me, a very young man, if I would have known this stuff, right now, what I knew, |
423 | 01:07:36,060 --> 01:07:44,190 | and everybody can say this about everything, but I'm telling you if I knew this, when I first started, oh, man, you would have known about me everywhere. It |
424 | 01:07:44,190 --> 01:07:50,100 | would have been everywhere I would have been on books and people wouldn't trust me because that's how crazy it was. It was like a carnival like circus man on |
425 | 01:07:50,100 --> 01:08:01,080 | America Online people were they knew me, and it has exploded. Now it's not about me, it's about everyone else. And I'm interested, honestly, I am very interested |
426 | 01:08:01,320 --> 01:08:11,190 | in what everyone else is doing. And I get a lot of that feedback now. But I want to see it when everyone knows everything I'm endeavored to share. And once that |
427 | 01:08:11,190 --> 01:08:18,840 | happens and the time effect takes place because it's gonna be a couple years I know. But I'm relatively young, I'm an old guy, I'll be 43 this year, but you |
428 | 01:08:18,840 --> 01:08:26,580 | know 10 years from now I hope to still keep getting emails from folks that maybe just discovered me did the whole thing. Maybe listen to this video here. And you |
429 | 01:08:26,580 --> 01:08:36,240 | know, change their life and buy as a byproduct you know, blessed other people that may not ever even be traders. Okay, but you bought them a house you paid |
430 | 01:08:36,240 --> 01:08:42,510 | for their their child's tuition for college that they couldn't afford. Those are the types of things I want to hear about not to Hey, ma'am. I went out and |
431 | 01:08:42,510 --> 01:08:53,040 | bought myself a new new Lexus or bought a Lamborghini and, and I know what it's like you go through six miles an hour, a six mile per gallon fuel consumption. |
432 | 01:08:53,040 --> 01:08:59,310 | Now don't worry about all that. That's not what I'm worried about my motivation is I want to see what you're doing to help someone else. Okay, that's really |
433 | 01:08:59,310 --> 01:09:12,300 | what this is. So it's not egotistical, it's not self centered, it's really a tight, you know, I'm giving away my time and energy because I know it's going to |
434 | 01:09:12,300 --> 01:09:20,580 | have a blessing way down the line. And he's going to help some money that will never meet me. And I'm excited about that. And I just want to hear the |
435 | 01:09:20,580 --> 01:09:31,200 | storylines behind it all before I lay down for the last time. So we're gonna go over to the charts and we're going to look at some of this in a buying scenario |
436 | 01:09:31,200 --> 01:09:38,250 | because we have mapped it out here on a down down scenario or bearish scenario. Let's take a look at it what looks like on a buying opportunity and what this |
437 | 01:09:38,250 --> 01:09:39,150 | looks like internal |
438 | 01:09:44,370 --> 01:09:52,470 | Okay, folks, we're looking at the British pound is a daily chart. Now, I know some of you are going to watch this video. And assume naturally, I'm cherry |
439 | 01:09:52,470 --> 01:10:04,230 | picking and saying something that happened in hindsight that I didn't call before the fact and yada yada yada. Okay. I'm just going to counsel you to trust |
440 | 01:10:04,230 --> 01:10:15,180 | me when I tell you that I tweeted this whole business down here that we were going to use this for a study scenario. And I tweeted the specific levels and |
441 | 01:10:15,180 --> 01:10:29,850 | talked about it in great detail. And between the time I tweeted it, and the time that I commented on it, and now, obviously, but we talked about this old low, |
442 | 01:10:30,840 --> 01:10:49,230 | okay, and a higher Time Frame level like this. This particular day, let's get a better view of it. The low comes in at 146 37. Okay, I know a lot of you will |
443 | 01:10:49,440 --> 01:11:07,410 | recognize that level from discussions and tweets and videos that we've shown with it. Let's look at that 146 37 146 37. So our level is exactly where it |
444 | 01:11:07,410 --> 01:11:20,070 | needs to be. Now, this penetration of a low, this is a liquidity pool right below this low, it dipped down into a higher level weekly order block. Okay, and |
445 | 01:11:20,070 --> 01:11:27,030 | I'm not going to spend the time to do that, because we've already did that in previous videos. So if you haven't gone through my stuff, there's your reason |
446 | 01:11:27,030 --> 01:11:37,620 | for having to need to do it. Okay, so trust me when I tell you we Outland wide down here is nificantly. bullish. We were talking about the likelihood of a |
447 | 01:11:37,620 --> 01:11:45,990 | bounce in a bear market. Okay, that was the framework for all this. Now, can I look back six months from now and say, Wow, look at this on the down the low, |
448 | 01:11:46,080 --> 01:11:54,720 | maybe. But did I call it the low then? No, I just said as a bounce in a bear market. I never teach and I never tried to trade with the concept of trying to |
449 | 01:11:54,720 --> 01:12:03,210 | nail down the low because this is ultimately, you know, likely, okay, retrace at some degree. And if it does, it takes out this low Am I calling the low then No, |
450 | 01:12:03,390 --> 01:12:11,550 | you don't need the low, you don't need the high. But you just know when it's most likely to trade in a direct, new, higher, lower. And that's all you need. |
451 | 01:12:11,880 --> 01:12:21,300 | And that's the benefit of having higher timeframe charts at your disposal, because the higher timeframe charts generally trade in one direction for a |
452 | 01:12:21,300 --> 01:12:31,950 | length of time that is very conducive for what we're discussing here, high probability setups. Now, a low like this, if it's broken through, you can see |
453 | 01:12:31,950 --> 01:12:41,700 | the bodies of the candles had a very difficult time moving any degree beyond it lower. But we were anticipating something bullish down here. Okay. And, again, |
454 | 01:12:42,390 --> 01:12:51,660 | please look at the videos prior to the time of this video is released. And you'll see that clearly this is all anticipated. Okay, we are looking for a |
455 | 01:12:51,660 --> 01:13:02,790 | bounce in a bear market. And before we talk about the several 100 Pip move up, I want to show you just some of the things that's obviously salient to discussion |
456 | 01:13:02,790 --> 01:13:14,460 | here. The move that we see here, see how that took place as a rather extended price move. Okay. Even the move that took place from this low to this high was |
457 | 01:13:14,460 --> 01:13:24,660 | extended, okay, it took some time to on unravel the high up here down to the low in here. It took time for it to establish the high and low price move. Okay, |
458 | 01:13:24,660 --> 01:13:37,350 | what the point is, once you identify the highest likelihood direction on these higher timeframe charts, you want to really focus on that for your for your high |
459 | 01:13:37,350 --> 01:13:47,040 | probability setups. Can you buy, you know, in areas like this? Sure, you can. But my question is, why would you want to, especially as a developing trader, |
460 | 01:13:47,370 --> 01:13:55,470 | you really want to have the odds statistically in your favor. The institutional order flow is bearish here. Okay. And it's not because we're pointing it out. In |
461 | 01:13:55,470 --> 01:14:02,970 | hindsight, it's perfect. In hindsight, yes. But we were bearish all here, we talked about this gap being filled, and it may not appear as a gap on your |
462 | 01:14:03,240 --> 01:14:13,110 | platform. This gaps there because this platform did not trade during the holidays. But you will see if your chart is not showing the gap, you'll see a |
463 | 01:14:13,110 --> 01:14:20,340 | big range all the same things they are you have a liquidity void, it has to come back up in and fill it and that's exactly what it did here. Okay. So we were |
464 | 01:14:20,340 --> 01:14:28,260 | anticipating bounce there and it come up to where we anticipated up to this bearish order block, boom, filled the gap and then boom, lower. Okay, so that's |
465 | 01:14:28,260 --> 01:14:37,380 | the benefit of having the higher timeframe charts at your disposal and understanding what it's doing off key levels and monthly, weekly, daily order |
466 | 01:14:37,380 --> 01:14:44,580 | blocks and liquidity pools when it was down here, okay. There were several areas of |
467 | 01:14:46,050 --> 01:14:55,260 | opportunities for price to most likely want to reach for it in a down market. We have these highs in here, which at the time of me discussing it and said that |
468 | 01:14:55,260 --> 01:15:07,170 | these are most likely the highs that would be traded to Okay to reach for any stops above it, because the liquidity outside this range here will only be in |
469 | 01:15:07,170 --> 01:15:13,170 | this area here. And then we have this spike high here. Okay, so we'll note that |
470 | 01:15:18,690 --> 01:15:32,940 | and for this discussion don't need to be so precise. It'll still give us the the main concepts as as it relates to what we're discussing. We had the major low |
471 | 01:15:32,940 --> 01:15:42,540 | here liquidity pool liquidity pools above these highs here. And liquidity pool, both these highs here, okay, basically stops, that's the easiest way of |
472 | 01:15:42,840 --> 01:15:53,130 | describing why, why would we anticipate stops above this high and above these hot here, because prior to where it's at, now, the market was going lower, stops |
473 | 01:15:53,130 --> 01:16:02,670 | will be above this high and it's broke down lower, stocks will be lower to this point. And then as the market make lower, they will put stops above this high |
474 | 01:16:02,670 --> 01:16:13,830 | protecting their short position. Well, when it's going to bounce, when it's going to bounce, it's going to seek those areas of liquidity. Okay, and you see |
475 | 01:16:13,830 --> 01:16:24,990 | that happened here, price runs up runs that first level, around that 150 level here, boom, those stops are gone. The next level will be around that 151 50. |
476 | 01:16:25,020 --> 01:16:38,430 | What is that? 151 66. Okay, price runs up through it, boom, there it is. That was last week, cleared it out. Okay. The area at which would be next |
477 | 01:16:39,060 --> 01:16:49,560 | consideration for ultimately you inside this range would be this bullish candle, which is the bearish order block, we were looking for the 154 6154 50 area, |
478 | 01:16:49,860 --> 01:16:59,010 | okay, in that in that price range. And again, that's assuming that we blow all the way up to that, that price point. And if we do that, we probably may have |
479 | 01:16:59,010 --> 01:17:11,040 | factored in the first part of the years low. And that may be pretty cool going into the fall. But nonetheless, when price was down here, and we were calling |
480 | 01:17:11,040 --> 01:17:20,220 | for bullish prices, until we get to these levels here. Okay, that means the range that's depicted from this level here and this level here, we would |
481 | 01:17:20,220 --> 01:17:36,150 | anticipate what taking place range expansion to the upside. Now, what is what's the benefit of that while describing what we just talked about, as it relates to |
482 | 01:17:36,750 --> 01:17:47,100 | mapping out the internal market flow, okay, not flow and like breaking highs and lows that, you know, it's commonly talked about as market flow, I'm talking |
483 | 01:17:47,100 --> 01:17:57,030 | about the institutional market flow the order flow, okay, it's going to be the opening a down move, they're going to seek value, it'll be undervalued, they're |
484 | 01:17:57,030 --> 01:18:06,810 | gonna accumulate by the range expansion will be the upside, the close will be above the opening price. It's an up day okay. Or it will be an accumulation day. |
485 | 01:18:08,700 --> 01:18:25,260 | If these levels are taken out, Okay, the next level would be here, stocks will be above that level, okay. That means inside this area, all between here as long |
486 | 01:18:25,260 --> 01:18:38,100 | as this level is not taken out, okay. We are in a bounce in a bear market. Now we have a swing low here. Now this level becomes influential. Okay, so this low |
487 | 01:18:38,130 --> 01:18:47,610 | because we have a swing low here with a daily low, that's higher than this low and a higher low on the side. Okay, so it was swing low, I only require three |
488 | 01:18:47,610 --> 01:18:56,430 | candles that do not need five to make what was deemed empty for fractal high or low. I don't need five candles for that. Larry Williams thought jar turning |
489 | 01:18:56,430 --> 01:19:04,950 | points occur at three candles and three candles is all it requires. If you look at every turning point, it's there. Now I'm going to get arguments and sent you |
490 | 01:19:04,950 --> 01:19:11,910 | don't know what's going on with you right now. I don't know and you don't know and we all trade with a level of uncertainty and I'm okay with that level of |
491 | 01:19:11,910 --> 01:19:20,250 | uncertainty. I know what I'm looking at in terms of key level so again, you get to where I am and then you'll trust it to and I don't mean that to be arrogant, |
492 | 01:19:20,250 --> 01:19:33,600 | but trust me, you only need three candles to make a swing high or low period. So now looking at what we have here, we've mapped out okay, an area at which prior |
493 | 01:19:33,630 --> 01:19:41,580 | like when it's down here when it makes the swing low right there boom. We are seeing the reaction initially that you would expect prices trying to move away |
494 | 01:19:42,360 --> 01:19:48,810 | there's where's it gonna go it's gonna go to this level here why cuz there's gonna be buy stops above it. And it's when we buy stops above it here for those |
495 | 01:19:48,810 --> 01:20:00,000 | that had been short. The market is going to seek that liquidity. So now we would look for the open to to swing down in London making the low in London between |
496 | 01:20:00,000 --> 01:20:07,740 | Two o'clock, four o'clock New York time, and then rally up, then a small retrace between five o'clock in the morning and seven o'clock in the morning, creating a |
497 | 01:20:07,740 --> 01:20:14,250 | New York session setup. And we would continuously do that until we see |
498 | 01:20:15,660 --> 01:20:22,650 | a low violate and we don't see any lows violated, it just keeps pressing higher and higher. And then last Friday, boom, we cleared out this high here. Okay, so |
499 | 01:20:22,650 --> 01:20:36,240 | now watch what we did, we're going to drop down into an hourly chart. And we'll look at the market a little bit more specific. Okay, and then we're going to add |
500 | 01:20:36,240 --> 01:20:46,470 | to the dividers. So we're looking at basically two weeks price action. Okay, two weeks of price action. And we see the swing low here, very easily discerned here |
501 | 01:20:46,500 --> 01:20:55,050 | now, and price does what, here's Monday's trading between this vertical day and fertile line, this vertical line, this is all Monday trading, look what happens, |
502 | 01:20:55,080 --> 01:21:05,940 | we open we trade down, make the low of the day rallies off, we open, drop down, make the low Day Rally off. Here's another day, look at this, this is Wednesday. |
503 | 01:21:07,530 --> 01:21:25,020 | We open Judas swing down, rally off. Look at Thursday, we open decline rally off here, same thing, we open decline a little bit rally off. So every single day, |
504 | 01:21:26,190 --> 01:21:33,840 | institution orderflow campus on the right side we are looking for where the institutions are going to want to pair orders at these levels are where the |
505 | 01:21:33,840 --> 01:21:41,610 | stops are going to be look at the reaction once it clear the first level, cleared it and then retraced deeper, okay, comes back up blows through it takes |
506 | 01:21:41,610 --> 01:21:51,240 | out this high, and then find some support at that same area of where we'd anticipate order flow. So now, those spy stops, okay, that were generated, they |
507 | 01:21:51,270 --> 01:22:00,480 | collapsed, the Long's here that they took their spy orders up here to be on the form of players that want to protect their short position, those by stops are |
508 | 01:22:00,480 --> 01:22:07,590 | going to they're going to activate and go active for market orders to buy the market, who's going to sell to them to smart money that bought it down here. |
509 | 01:22:07,920 --> 01:22:19,890 | They bought here, they're selling it to the buy stops here. Okay, so now they run a here, boom, one more time. But now watch what happens comes down here, |
510 | 01:22:20,430 --> 01:22:32,430 | this same area now will become sensitive. Okay, it'll become sensitive, because it was an area of old order flow back here. So now they'll re claim or |
511 | 01:22:32,430 --> 01:22:43,830 | recapitalize. Okay, this area in form of something like a like an owner block, if you will, okay, and this area will provide now support. So old areas of order |
512 | 01:22:43,830 --> 01:22:52,950 | flow can reverse their role and becomes an inversion level, I can support resistance, okay. When it rallies up, where's it going to reach for the next |
513 | 01:22:52,980 --> 01:23:03,900 | level of order? Flow and liquidity? So the void, I'm sorry, the liquidity pool is above this level here is now been absorbed, initially, okay. Expected to go a |
514 | 01:23:03,900 --> 01:23:14,430 | little bit higher going into this week. But nonetheless, the area at which it trades to, that's what we're looking at. So when it's a buy down here, okay, |
515 | 01:23:14,850 --> 01:23:29,730 | we're aiming. In our mind, we're anticipating price getting to this level right here. Okay, we want to clean that high, boom, and you see it right there. Okay. |
516 | 01:23:31,140 --> 01:23:42,330 | If price continues, and in finds continued buying pressure, and it does not break down, this will be the area at which orderflow would reach for next |
517 | 01:23:42,360 --> 01:23:52,320 | because liquidity is above these levels, why these levels are higher timeframe, price chart levels, key support resistance levels, liquidity pools, it's just |
518 | 01:23:52,320 --> 01:24:02,340 | like that, okay? It's just like that, you just look at areas at which price is going to pull it from here to here. This is how you trade with institutional |
519 | 01:24:02,340 --> 01:24:12,690 | order flow. It keeps you on the right side of the marketplace, and it shows you where price is going. Now let's go back to old school market flow. Okay, market |
520 | 01:24:12,690 --> 01:24:24,330 | flow, here's a swing high. Okay, see that? price breaks it right there, boom, it's going higher. Okay, on an hourly chart, swing low. Well, price price breaks |
521 | 01:24:24,330 --> 01:24:35,100 | it here. It's not until you see this high here broken, that it's become bullish again, because of an hourly chart, that's the way it is. You're shifting gears |
522 | 01:24:35,100 --> 01:24:44,430 | all over the place if you're just a market flow type trader, but watch what happens if you see when market flow is broken. Okay and market structure is |
523 | 01:24:44,430 --> 01:24:54,390 | suggesting that higher prices are in order. We have this swing high here broken which is much more significant moment. Opinion. Price comes back down into what |
524 | 01:24:55,020 --> 01:25:06,780 | an old bullish order block. Let's zoom in here. So, we talked about this I think in the last video produced prior to this one where we showed what real dynamic |
525 | 01:25:06,780 --> 01:25:16,860 | support and resistance is because there's a lot of questions I get about Some so called DSR indicator. But this is really what you're looking for. |
526 | 01:25:20,070 --> 01:25:29,340 | The down candle part of the move up is the bullish order block. It's the top of the body's candle and the wick. That is the range at which you want to view the |
527 | 01:25:29,340 --> 01:25:37,770 | real buying and selling. Okay, well the buying in this case here and you can see it comes right down into it there bang nails it now wouldn't you know it? If we |
528 | 01:25:37,770 --> 01:25:48,240 | go to our fib and go back to Baby Baby pips days where I was just giving you the the FIB tool there's your optimal trade entry at the sweet spot boom. And you |
529 | 01:25:48,240 --> 01:25:57,510 | thought I was just making this stuff up as I was going along. The point is is once we see this okay, we understand that we want to see the opening price at |
530 | 01:25:57,510 --> 01:26:04,920 | this point here it's this day here. Okay opening price below it well below how far well let's look at that |
531 | 01:26:13,260 --> 01:26:25,080 | okay, here's the opening price, or there abouts close to it. Okay, here is 30 pips from the opening at zero GMT. That's what these vertical lines are here. |
532 | 01:26:25,110 --> 01:26:39,660 | Okay, see that 30 pips from the opening price at zero GMT. Now we're going to zoom in Okay, and we're gonna go to here is new day. Let me make sure I can see |
533 | 01:26:39,660 --> 01:26:42,750 | my times I want to make sure I'm showing it accurately |
534 | 01:26:51,480 --> 01:27:12,120 | here's 5g Anti. Here's the opening price. And there's 30 pips. The low comes in at 50. Okay, that's Tuesday's low and as the one time that you're gonna have you |
535 | 01:27:12,120 --> 01:27:22,920 | have a loss, okay, if you're just looking at buying on a limit 30 pips below the opening price, but that's the first filter. Remember what we're talking about |
536 | 01:27:22,920 --> 01:27:34,650 | before you have to look at 30 pips below the opening price. And then in that area, and let's map that out. Here's 30 pips right there. Okay. So from the |
537 | 01:27:34,650 --> 01:27:43,860 | opening price here in the midnight candle in New York time, here's the opening down 30 pips. Then you go left from that price price. Excuse me, that price |
538 | 01:27:43,860 --> 01:27:53,490 | point. Is there an order block down there? No, where's the order block down here? Okay, so this is the benefit of seeing it when it's live. So you got to go |
539 | 01:27:53,520 --> 01:28:03,720 | and find out where that order block would be or liquidity pool, like it did here. Okay, we went down to an area that's bullish, that's what his level is. |
540 | 01:28:03,720 --> 01:28:15,330 | Here's an old daily low price opened up on that Monday and traded down to violate this low. If we look at the candle on that particular day, here's the |
541 | 01:28:16,200 --> 01:28:30,390 | here's the opening price here. And it come in at all there you go. I mean, we've never even came back down to that. Okay, so if you were buying you 30 pips below |
542 | 01:28:30,390 --> 01:28:41,400 | it, having a stop below it. 30 pips, that would be you wonderful. It'd be a really good setup, but I'm going to try to teach you to only be trading on |
543 | 01:28:41,400 --> 01:28:49,050 | Tuesdays and Wednesdays and try to avoid Mondays you'll miss a lot of really good opportunities like I did here, but just let it go. Okay, so I lost my line. |
544 | 01:28:49,050 --> 01:29:07,410 | I should have kept that I'm sorry. Alright, so we have 5g empty here. And 30 pips below the low is here. So if we were looking at buying down here, there's |
545 | 01:29:07,410 --> 01:29:18,180 | nothing really the frame the idea down here it is. Okay. So I kind of want to believe that you would have the, the Insight now especially now, going forward |
546 | 01:29:18,180 --> 01:29:25,110 | that you can't really frame the trade here because there's no waterblock until you get down lower. Okay, so you would have to expect or demand price to get |
547 | 01:29:25,110 --> 01:29:32,550 | down to that price point. Okay, or at least here. Now, let's say for argument that you didn't follow the rules and you want to go long here at this price |
548 | 01:29:32,550 --> 01:29:46,950 | point. Well, if that's your entry 30 pips below it from your entry point, price point because you're using a 30 pip stop. Did you get stopped out? No. But if |
549 | 01:29:46,950 --> 01:29:55,920 | you were looking at like a limit order trader, if you're starting out new, you probably would have messed this up somehow. Okay. And I'll just leave it at that |
550 | 01:29:55,920 --> 01:30:02,670 | and you would have seen this later on in price a man I would have been great if I would have been in it. but missed it because of something. Okay, maybe you |
551 | 01:30:02,670 --> 01:30:09,030 | would have trusted going down that let me be a thought. Well, Michael said it's got to be 30 pips and such, you're, there's gonna be times when you do that |
552 | 01:30:09,030 --> 01:30:19,590 | you're gonna question me you're gonna question your own understanding. And that's all part of it, guys. Alright, so now we have Okay, we just talked about |
553 | 01:30:19,590 --> 01:30:32,700 | Monday and Tuesday. So now we're gonna look at Tuesday's trading in here. Okay. We talked and showed in, let me see us at market maker eight, where old order |
554 | 01:30:32,700 --> 01:30:46,290 | blocks on the other side of the market maker profile, okay? Or will be re they'll be re claimed OtterBox. Okay, this is a small little bounce in the |
555 | 01:30:46,290 --> 01:30:56,880 | overall by program, or by profile. This right here, okay? If you use this down, candle prices move up, watch what happens. |
556 | 01:31:03,090 --> 01:31:11,310 | Boom. Okay. It does not go down to what you would deem classic support and resistance. This is the reason why everyone gets frustrated with Support |
557 | 01:31:11,310 --> 01:31:18,240 | Resistance. They'll say, oh, Support Resistance doesn't work. It works wonderful. These don't know what how to use it. Price does not get down to that |
558 | 01:31:18,240 --> 01:31:26,580 | price point. Here's the high that would be the old resistance now expected to be turned support. It didn't get down there. Why? Because it doesn't have to. |
559 | 01:31:27,300 --> 01:31:38,670 | Here's the waterblock prior to this little move up. Now why is this little move up even significant? Watch. We have a consolidation breakdown, a return to debt |
560 | 01:31:38,670 --> 01:31:49,590 | consolidation, and a run to support Smart Money reversal. Low risk by Re accumulation, boom distribution above the consolidation. There's your market |
561 | 01:31:49,590 --> 01:32:00,330 | maker by profile. Okay, we actually mapped all this stuff out. And you see it now in in hindsight, but it was all explained step by step by step. And what you |
562 | 01:32:00,330 --> 01:32:10,770 | do with these points over here, because you're anticipating what the price is consolidating above and higher level support level or weekly waterblock. price |
563 | 01:32:10,770 --> 01:32:22,260 | comes down, trades into that and also an old low, old daily low, mostly with this level here is that 146 37 from the daily chart. But notice what they're |
564 | 01:32:22,260 --> 01:32:29,640 | doing, they're buying here early, because they're hedging in they got it, they have deep pockets, they can do it. You can't do it like this, but they do. So |
565 | 01:32:29,640 --> 01:32:37,620 | they're buying here, okay, that drips down into a lower area, they buy more, and he drops even more, they buy more, it comes on the other side of the market |
566 | 01:32:37,620 --> 01:32:47,400 | maker by profile, and they're buying a lot here. Boom, why is it coming back to this price point? It doesn't even give you what you would classically see as |
567 | 01:32:48,060 --> 01:32:58,110 | well, Michael, it's not an optimal trade entry. It only goes down to the 50 level. You're right. Because that's not what it is. You got to look at where the |
568 | 01:32:58,110 --> 01:33:05,970 | actually did the buying the buying is here inside of the buy profile. Okay, they bought here, when it gets back down to they're going to add more buying into it. |
569 | 01:33:06,240 --> 01:33:19,440 | Right there. Okay, you see that? So now, we understand also this is a key low. So watch what we do. If you if you anchor your price point of your fib on the |
570 | 01:33:19,650 --> 01:33:35,160 | higher level, daily low, okay, we just fall hair shy of the 60% retracement level. But if we No no, I'm probably gonna go. Yeah, let's just do it. The the |
571 | 01:33:36,570 --> 01:33:39,240 | let's not use that though. Let's use a horizontal line |
572 | 01:33:44,790 --> 01:33:55,710 | inside all this consolidation, okay, all this consolidation, we learned in the market maker series that there are levels to look for. For institutional |
573 | 01:33:55,710 --> 01:34:03,660 | pricing. Institution pricing is where you see where all the orders are collectively working around it, there's a lot of bodies and wicks touching it. |
574 | 01:34:03,870 --> 01:34:12,720 | Okay, and it needs to be rounded to the nearest round number. Inside that range is 1/5 650. If you anchor your fib and there that seems like voodoo, but trust |
575 | 01:34:12,720 --> 01:34:19,290 | me over time, when you do it, you'll see it's amazing. You go you fall right down inside of the 60%. Chase, no, but more importantly, look at the bottom of |
576 | 01:34:19,290 --> 01:34:28,890 | the candle. They're respecting 62 Based on that, that range from the high here and the 50 level here. Why is this the important cuz it's a significant |
577 | 01:34:28,890 --> 01:34:38,880 | minifigure number. It's a high psychological number. And also it's inside the range of this consolidation. And there's a lot of touches and bodies that candle |
578 | 01:34:39,630 --> 01:34:52,680 | in that area. Okay, so a little extra for the v not necessary, but nonetheless it's are you going to get more for your money in here, we have see where we get |
579 | 01:34:54,480 --> 01:35:12,720 | five GMT. And let's look at that as it relates to buying it here's 5g and T opening prices right there and just ballparking it and here is 30 pips right |
580 | 01:35:12,720 --> 01:35:24,510 | there. Okay, looking to be a buyer around there, okay, but the order block is over here. So you have to use and I'm just going to erase this horizontal line |
581 | 01:35:24,510 --> 01:35:37,440 | up to that price point right there at the top of the bodies candle and as early as the top of the candles wick, so anywhere in here, that'd be good area and |
582 | 01:35:37,470 --> 01:35:47,580 | that would be an area which you would be buying, assuming you were not following the rules and you just want to be a buyer down here. Okay 30 pips below that |
583 | 01:35:47,580 --> 01:35:56,220 | price points here. You will never gotten stopped out. So are we still holding fast to 90% likelihood? Well, let's say you missed it here for whatever reason, |
584 | 01:35:56,400 --> 01:36:04,050 | and you don't trade on Mondays boom. Did it get from this area which you would be buying if you didn't follow the rules but if you did follow the rules down |
585 | 01:36:04,050 --> 01:36:10,890 | here, you would use this this candle here adding the spread because you gotta you have to factor that in |
586 | 01:36:18,480 --> 01:36:30,540 | from the price point rate there is 30 pips from your entry. Okay 60 pips right there |
587 | 01:36:35,850 --> 01:36:49,890 | 90 pips right there. Okay. Now it continued further. But this is all you would do for three to one, but when you're first starting out that's it right there. |
588 | 01:36:51,510 --> 01:37:01,650 | Now, does that seem doable? Doesn't seem like you're trying to climb mountains, right? But that's all you need to get one to one. Do that for about a month. And |
589 | 01:37:01,650 --> 01:37:12,900 | when you're consistently able to do that, learn to trust it and hold it for three for two to one and that's right here and then sit and watch does price |
590 | 01:37:12,900 --> 01:37:20,280 | continue on the rest of the day? And many times you're gonna see it does and then do that for a month once you consistent and you comfortable with it. Hold |
591 | 01:37:20,280 --> 01:37:30,360 | it for three to one there's your there's your 90 pips Okay? going step by this is all just a one day okay? Ultimately if you look at where it went to your if |
592 | 01:37:30,360 --> 01:37:40,320 | you're looking at institutional order flow you're looking at 342 pips. Now my question is, is how often have you seen 11 to one reward to risk trades in your |
593 | 01:37:40,320 --> 01:37:50,040 | trading get what I'm getting at now. Okay, think about what I'm teaching I'm teaching you how to trade with the highest level degree of accuracy, knowing |
594 | 01:37:50,040 --> 01:37:58,530 | when to trade why to trade it, why it works using institutional order flow anticipating the turns because of the market maker profiles with higher level |
595 | 01:37:58,530 --> 01:38:06,990 | timeframe, key support resistance levels and order blocks, which is all the framework of all this business down here. Okay, and looking for a price reaching |
596 | 01:38:06,990 --> 01:38:25,440 | to these levels. Now it even goes higher. Still, if you're a position trader here yo 480 pips and you erased initially 30 I can tell you that this is not a |
597 | 01:38:25,440 --> 01:38:36,630 | fluke instance, it doesn't just happen once in a while. Okay, it happens a lot. But now look at let's go down into a 15 minute timeframe and we'll incorporate |
598 | 01:38:36,630 --> 01:38:41,070 | that New York session information and why that was even brought up |
599 | 01:38:46,110 --> 01:39:05,700 | okay I'm probably going to have to lose the colors are we I'm sorry the line two levels to accomplish this give me a second here well think about it if I add the |
600 | 01:39:05,700 --> 01:39:12,930 | indicator it's going to give me let me see here let's don't want to I don't want to lose my |
601 | 01:39:23,010 --> 01:39:24,750 | Yeah, that's not doing it for me |
602 | 01:39:30,120 --> 01:39:36,270 | you're gonna get a rough cut on this video. There's a lot of editing that I'm just not going to worry with. And this is part of it. So they're they're deal |
603 | 01:39:36,270 --> 01:40:01,200 | with it. The what we'll do is create this Yeah, here's seven. GMT for two o'clock in the morning and three o'clock in the morning, right there. One |
604 | 01:40:01,200 --> 01:40:18,810 | o'clock to when am I doing here? Yeah okay, so between seven and nine GMT or two o'clock to four o'clock in the morning you're going to see generally the low |
605 | 01:40:18,870 --> 01:40:43,200 | form and let's test this out because you will see that no no all you're saying is this one day is two o'clock in the morning to four o'clock in the morning |
606 | 01:40:44,370 --> 01:40:45,990 | spar this level here |
607 | 01:40:52,170 --> 01:41:04,800 | it's an equal low here so but this is the end of that range of time. And here's your low boom, okay, and rallies off, you can click on EEG obviously I can beat |
608 | 01:41:04,800 --> 01:41:16,320 | this dead for a long time and still arrive at no greater exhalation is what I showed you in terms of the London session. But let's look at New York. And this |
609 | 01:41:16,320 --> 01:41:29,790 | is kind of like a real quick revisiting of my YouTube channel video that I put up and reloaded then it was actually done earlier than that. teaching how to |
610 | 01:41:29,790 --> 01:41:45,630 | trade that New York session and what you do is you look for the range between 12 GMT really is 1130 Canty, but I'm just gonna tell you 12 is a good ballpark |
611 | 01:41:45,660 --> 01:41:55,890 | number 215 GMT. Okay, there you go. And what you do as you anticipate that retracement? |
612 | 01:42:01,140 --> 01:42:16,620 | You retracement it which you see. There's your New York kill zone and the retracement here. And the time at which we said that the retracement would occur |
613 | 01:42:17,280 --> 01:42:31,830 | was and how I'm doing this to give you time. If you watch down here, and this little area down here, down below and your MT four platform it tells you times |
614 | 01:42:32,070 --> 01:42:51,540 | and I just find an area which lines up for 12 GMT in the area. Okay, here's 10 GMT actually because it's 5am 10 GMT to 12 GMT in that area and time you're |
615 | 01:42:51,540 --> 01:43:01,170 | going to see a retracement we said as late as eight in the 13 GMT. Okay, and here's where that retracement takes place. See that starts off and then comes |
616 | 01:43:01,170 --> 01:43:12,000 | down and into a time at which the New York session kill zone would take place. All right, now looking at the second week of this block of price action we |
617 | 01:43:12,000 --> 01:43:20,640 | discussed this order block here I'm not sorry this order block here is a liquidity pool which has been noted it's hard like timeframe level the next one |
618 | 01:43:20,640 --> 01:43:33,510 | would be up here. Okay so as price comes back down into it we find some support that says the area which we look for the Otterbox the form okay let's price |
619 | 01:43:33,510 --> 01:43:42,990 | comes down and reacts and comes right back down to previous down candle body of the candle or block one to one boom takes off and rallies. Okay. Up to the next |
620 | 01:43:42,990 --> 01:43:55,050 | area of liquidity. The Sunday and then Monday's trading we don't do anything with Sunday. Sunday Monday the opening price. Okay on this day here |
621 | 01:44:01,350 --> 01:44:18,600 | this is midnight candle here. We look 30 Good grief 30 pips below the opening price. Okay, at that price point, we'd look over here. Is there any order blocks |
622 | 01:44:19,470 --> 01:44:22,890 | that we would use to constitute a buy? |
623 | 01:44:28,920 --> 01:44:38,040 | Well think about it, we're on the buy side, okay. But prior to them dropping down, they gotta sell it here. So there's some selling orders or sell orders |
624 | 01:44:38,040 --> 01:44:48,510 | here. They sold into this to take some some profits. Okay. As the price moves up, there may be some open float on their their short position, because again, |
625 | 01:44:48,750 --> 01:44:59,280 | they don't trade with stops smart. Money's in the market. Always. They're always in the market. So when price is in here, short, maybe they sold more than they |
626 | 01:44:59,280 --> 01:45:09,840 | could do Get off at a lower price down here. So now they sit in with a losing position here. Once this candle took off, there's a net losing position being |
627 | 01:45:09,840 --> 01:45:20,700 | held right here. Well, this is when the order block becomes a mitigation block. And kind of think of it as like Support Resistance. It really is. I mean, this |
628 | 01:45:20,700 --> 01:45:32,280 | is the finest format the view. So we have old high here, price breaks through it. Okay, price comes back down to the first return of that level. First return |
629 | 01:45:32,280 --> 01:45:41,340 | is going to be sensitive. Okay, price comes down to it, and then we would anticipate what price action taking off rallying, okay. So you could be a buyer |
630 | 01:45:41,340 --> 01:45:57,780 | at this price level here. Right there using a 30 pip stop. You're below it right there. Okay. Boom takes off. Now at this level, if we go down to a 15 minute |
631 | 01:45:57,780 --> 01:45:58,440 | timeframe |
632 | 01:46:04,530 --> 01:46:21,510 | Okay, we have price, making a run here. We can now look at the New York session again, because it's what we anticipate price starts to rally up in London, okay, |
633 | 01:46:21,540 --> 01:46:30,690 | and takes its move here rallies up, we use the body of the candle, the down candle and the top of the wick. And we're just going to use this horizontal one |
634 | 01:46:30,690 --> 01:46:44,310 | here to note that right there, and what I did was I highlighted the body of the candle, the top or the opening price, and the high. Okay, you guys want zones. |
635 | 01:46:44,700 --> 01:46:52,890 | This is a zone, okay? That is dynamic. It's not the stuff underneath the candles, okay? Unless you're looking for a stop rate, then then it's useful, |
636 | 01:46:53,130 --> 01:47:01,410 | okay, but that's not going to require ranges, it's going to take out the low. If you're looking for dynamic support, you can utilize the concept of the my order |
637 | 01:47:01,410 --> 01:47:10,200 | block and it's from the bodies candle on a down candle. It's the opening price and the high and you can see beautiful illustration of that here. And again, |
638 | 01:47:10,200 --> 01:47:18,480 | it's not cherry picking if you look at major support and resistance plays where the market strong reactions, you'll see a lot of this happening all the time. |
639 | 01:47:18,480 --> 01:47:26,370 | It's just repeats all the time. It's so generic, it's they're always and they're just so nice that tradesmen level just went by about two three pips, but |
640 | 01:47:26,370 --> 01:47:40,410 | ultimately boom takes off now the candle time at this candle here. And they're both equal wick by the way, I mean they're just right on. Okay, it is 1315 GMT |
641 | 01:47:40,470 --> 01:47:51,060 | that is the New York session. Okay. So, are we seeing the reverse of what we showed earlier in the crude depiction of what the internals look like on |
642 | 01:47:51,300 --> 01:48:03,180 | institutional order flow just reversed. Sure we are. You see the the low it rallies off, then comes back in retraces okay. What time is this candle here |
643 | 01:48:03,240 --> 01:48:04,020 | making the high |
644 | 01:48:11,160 --> 01:48:28,860 | 1230 GMT, the candle here 1215 GMT. The retracement and then we're looking for the highlights we're looking for a high in this time of day to take place to |
645 | 01:48:28,860 --> 01:48:38,700 | retrace back into an area which you can buy that in the range that was created for London. So the low here the high that was formed it in the beginning of the |
646 | 01:48:38,700 --> 01:48:52,380 | New York session. Okay, it can go as late as what time remember 13 GMT, which is 8am New York time it retraces. Here's 1315 GMT. So if you really want to be |
647 | 01:48:52,860 --> 01:49:02,190 | accurate, you can say I was I was off by 15 minutes there. So there you go. I was wrong. Okay, but the order block is down here. Boom. Most people would be |
648 | 01:49:02,190 --> 01:49:12,960 | awakened alert door in New York session. And let's assume for a moment you use the highest possible area at which to be buying it's top of that order block |
649 | 01:49:12,960 --> 01:49:26,040 | right there. 30 pips is down here. And you're never getting stopped out with that. And then boom, take off. If you were buying there and looking to take your |
650 | 01:49:26,040 --> 01:49:36,630 | first profit 30 All you're doing is getting out there. You don't even need to break the range. There's 30 pips, okay? And two to one payout would be here and |
651 | 01:49:36,630 --> 01:49:49,350 | three to one payout is right there and they still want to be behind for that day. Okay. So, again, I'm counseling you to go through your charts and study |
652 | 01:49:49,380 --> 01:49:57,720 | with this mindset. Okay, don't go into it thinking that you got to look for every signal don't think that you have to have 100 pips a week. Okay, just start |
653 | 01:49:57,720 --> 01:50:09,390 | small looking for 30 pips one to one frame the understanding you have there and build on it as a foundation and then learn to expect two to one payouts Okay, |
654 | 01:50:10,260 --> 01:50:25,530 | now I'm going to close it with this we have this area of price action outlined okay it's basically the last two weeks I'm going to clear this off and just |
655 | 01:50:25,530 --> 01:50:46,470 | simply do this with the ICT kill zones and you can see the little orange section here that is 1500 to 1600 GMT I'm going to close this area to what I gave you in |
656 | 01:50:46,470 --> 01:51:17,760 | terms of the end of the day and we're going to look at that in such a way where it shows it being 19 150 100 GMT Okay, so what I'm showing you is this will be |
657 | 01:51:17,790 --> 01:51:28,890 | the in this range of updates okay inside of the orange portion or I guess it's red I'm not sure I'm colorblind Good grief the the area |
658 | 01:51:37,020 --> 01:51:58,050 | if we look at that we are saying essentially that this will be the high or low the day generally one update so I wasted my time doing it on that day sorry |
659 | 01:52:04,980 --> 01:52:08,190 | there's that and |
660 | 01:52:18,870 --> 01:52:30,450 | I wish you would look to hold it no longer than this is what I'm suggesting here by doing this on the update and in between the two vertical lines is what we're |
661 | 01:52:30,450 --> 01:52:42,120 | stating is the highest probable exit point in terms of time and the use that battery analogy |
662 | 01:52:49,200 --> 01:53:07,950 | you can see it does give you pretty much the highest high or the optimal area at which to exit Thank you off to period separator off because that is not |
663 | 01:53:07,950 --> 01:53:16,470 | necessary for what I'm showing. And we'll do one more just for completeness. |
664 | 01:53:26,100 --> 01:53:35,700 | Okay, so what I'm showing here is the blue line area is my iced tea kill zone for London, green is New York. And this is where you want to be getting out for |
665 | 01:53:35,700 --> 01:53:45,840 | the high of the day if you're buying and if it's down day you're looking to get out during this time period for covering your shorts on a down day. Okay, but |
666 | 01:53:45,840 --> 01:53:55,170 | since we've mapped out in there yet which buying is the most appropriate form of trading, you'd be buying during the period at which it's blue. And you can see |
667 | 01:53:55,170 --> 01:54:08,250 | here buying it. Buying it buying it buying it this is a down day retracing, okay, you don't trade Mondays anyway, Tuesday, you want to be buying it during |
668 | 01:54:08,250 --> 01:54:17,580 | the blue period here exiting. I don't know why didn't There you go. You want to exit in between the two vertical lines here. Here's the high of the day. You |
669 | 01:54:17,580 --> 01:54:27,150 | want to be buying in the blue area here buying into an order block rallies up and it's just a little bit off here. Okay, a couple hours off. But New York |
670 | 01:54:27,150 --> 01:54:38,070 | session market reversal, which I'll counseling you to look at, I have a video on it. Buying in the blue area, buying it exiting during this window of time okay. |
671 | 01:54:39,840 --> 01:54:42,600 | Blue area here buying it getting out |
672 | 01:54:49,410 --> 01:54:55,650 | between these two periods here, and you now on the the high of the day, it went just a little bit above it, but nonetheless you're who's going to complain about |
673 | 01:54:55,650 --> 01:55:09,360 | that. So I'm gonna leave you with This we talked about the idea of using higher timeframe charts using the areas of liquidity looking for order blocks, trading |
674 | 01:55:09,360 --> 01:55:17,850 | inside the ranges, liquidity voids, where the higher timeframe daily charts pulling price. And I'll counsel you look at the weekly monthly in same respect |
675 | 01:55:18,210 --> 01:55:27,150 | where those three higher timeframe charts are pulling price will help you trade on a four hour chart with no problem at all. And by utilizing those higher |
676 | 01:55:27,150 --> 01:55:36,240 | timeframe charts where price is being pulled, okay, when these higher timeframe charts, it will give you the insight that you need to have because that's |
677 | 01:55:36,240 --> 01:55:42,600 | exactly how large institutional traders are trading. They're not looking at five minute charts, they could care less with the five minute charts doing because |
678 | 01:55:42,600 --> 01:55:50,640 | they're trading on valuation of price, Old Order Flow. Okay, they're seeing that on the higher timeframe charts, they're not looking at one minute charts, |
679 | 01:55:50,730 --> 01:55:57,120 | they're not looking at five minute charts. Bottom line is that they're staying on these higher timeframes because they need those higher timeframe charts, to |
680 | 01:55:57,120 --> 01:56:07,230 | worry about entering in early and exiting early. Because think about it, a whale is a whale, okay, they just can't turn on a dime, it takes a little bit of |
681 | 01:56:07,230 --> 01:56:15,090 | effort and time for them to get changed around in the different direction. Whereas I Are you swimming in a pool, we could start turning on a dime go the |
682 | 01:56:15,090 --> 01:56:23,340 | other way. They don't have the luxury of doing that they need all this extra liquidity, okay, that we don't require because we're too small fry. Okay, so |
683 | 01:56:25,140 --> 01:56:34,860 | I'll leave it up to you guys if you do, if you believe I was able to deliver in the topics title here. But I can counsel you to do this, go through this video |
684 | 01:56:34,950 --> 01:56:45,690 | about 10 times. Okay? Because I'm guaranteeing you if you didn't write down the notes and really studied it. If you watch it 10 times and you write down the |
685 | 01:56:45,690 --> 01:56:53,970 | notes and you go through and you start studying it, you will see all the things I just discussed here happening always in the charts. It's there always and by |
686 | 01:56:53,970 --> 01:57:05,790 | understanding how we utilize all that stuff. It will help you move closer and closer to that goal of 90% setups. Until then, guys when we visit each other |
687 | 01:57:05,790 --> 01:57:08,940 | once again and video. I wish you good luck and good trading |