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Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-01-14 05:38
From version 59.1
edited by Drunk Monkey
on 2020-09-08 15:45
Change comment: Renamed back-links.
To version 59.2
edited by Drunk Monkey
on 2023-01-14 05:38
Change comment: Renamed from xwiki:Forex.The-Inner-Circle-Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome

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... ... @@ -17,7 +17,7 @@
17 17  ** look at HTF (M, W, D, 4h) and look for key levels where price has moved away from in the past
18 18  ** HTF shows where the big players are most likely going to push things around.
19 19  ** LTF is too noisy to show this detail.
20 -* Assuming bullish market, we are looking for where the market wants to trade higher.  OTE is based on buying during the retracements that occur before the further push upwards.
20 +* Assuming bullish market, we are looking for where the market wants to trade higher.  {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} is based on buying during the retracements that occur before the further push upwards.
21 21  * The impulse move has to incorporate a break in Market Structure.
22 22  * Using Fib Retracement as a visual guide, set the following levels
23 23  ** -1 - Symmetrical Price Swing
... ... @@ -26,10 +26,10 @@
26 26  ** 0 - First Profit - Scaling
27 27  ** 0.5 - Equilibrium
28 28  ** 0.618 - 62% retracement
29 -** 0.705 - OTE 70.5%
29 +** 0.705 - {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} 70.5%
30 30  ** 0.79 - 79%
31 31  ** 1 - 100%, or likely SL
32 -* OTE (70.5%) is an ideal target.  getting deeper is better, but you run the risk of not filling your order.  62% retracement is also acceptable, but it results in smaller profits because our SL range will be larger, necessitating smaller order sizes to maintain our risk profile.
32 +* {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} (70.5%) is an ideal target.  getting deeper is better, but you run the risk of not filling your order.  62% retracement is also acceptable, but it results in smaller profits because our SL range will be larger, necessitating smaller order sizes to maintain our risk profile.
33 33  * First Scaling, or slightly before, represents the place to take initial profits.  It should be a decent return, preferable better than 1:2 risk/reward, but slightly less than 2 (1.5? 1x75?) is also acceptable.
34 34  * Setups on 1h charts better than 5m charts because the pip movements will be larger.
35 35  * Key levels xxx.00, xxx.20, xxx.50, xxx.80, yyy.00
... ... @@ -45,8 +45,8 @@
45 45  ** institutional levels
46 46  ** old monthly high at 1.1720 (1.17137 rounded)
47 47  ** price runs down until it hits the 20 level (1.1720), rallies and creates a new short term high (old - middle red line, new STH, top red line. It's also called a "market structure break"
48 -** the new STH makes for a more likely trade opportunity. (market maker model) and opens up the chance for an OTE.
49 -** also, a high, with two lower highs on either side makes that high more significant.  when this high is broken, it's a more convincing move than breaking the other shorter term highs, thus giving us the opportunity to find a likely OTE.
48 +** the new STH makes for a more likely trade opportunity. (market maker model) and opens up the chance for an {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}}.
49 +** also, a high, with two lower highs on either side makes that high more significant.  when this high is broken, it's a more convincing move than breaking the other shorter term highs, thus giving us the opportunity to find a likely {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}}.
50 50  ** at the fib, we see price rockets away from a STL
51 51  
52 52  * when old highs/lows are broken, trades will tend to reach back to those old positions (retail calls it "support")
... ... @@ -73,9 +73,9 @@
73 73  Mark out the previous days high and low.
74 74  \\The black line (6450) represents the closest institutional or key level near the previous days high.  The blue lines above and below are a 10 pip spread.
75 75  
76 -* The OTE pattern occurs during the 8:30 to 11:00am NY session.  That's when the major news and reports tends to come out. 
76 +* The {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} pattern occurs during the 8:30 to 11:00am NY session.  That's when the major news and reports tends to come out. 
77 77  [[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 05.02.49.png||queryString="width=385&height=579" height="579" width="385"]]
78 -The green box represents the 62 to 79% Fib retracement levels in the OTE pattern
78 +The green box represents the 62 to 79% Fib retracement levels in the {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} pattern
79 79  
80 80  * The Fib box is drawn from the low to high when the previous days high has been broken.
81 81  * Trade
... ... @@ -116,7 +116,7 @@
116 116  
117 117  * Dropping into the 5m chart:
118 118  [[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.43.50.png]]
119 -\\Where do you think the OTE is going to be?  Look before scrolling further.  Remember the magic hours of 08:30 - 11:00 NY time. 
119 +\\Where do you think the {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} is going to be?  Look before scrolling further.  Remember the magic hours of 08:30 - 11:00 NY time. 
120 120  
121 121  * Fib added from the previous low at point 1, to the last recent high at point 2
122 122  [[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.47.47.png]]
... ... @@ -124,13 +124,13 @@
124 124  * Trading View chart, 15m
125 125  [[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 02.10.10.png]]
126 126  
127 -* On the above chart is a second OTE occurring just after the OTE period opening
127 +* On the above chart is a second {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} occurring just after the {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} period opening
128 128  [[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 02.19.10.png]]
129 -\\From the swing low, to the new high breaking the previous high.  The OTE opportunity crosses the weekend.  
129 +\\From the swing low, to the new high breaking the previous high.  The {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} opportunity crosses the weekend.  
130 130  
131 131  * 5m chart view
132 132  [[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 02.22.17.png||queryString="width=591&height=819" height="819" width="591"]]
133 -\\the recent low marked, right side showing the new high forming the OTE pattern.
133 +\\the recent low marked, right side showing the new high forming the {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} pattern.
134 134  
135 135  ====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
136 136  
... ... @@ -154,10 +154,10 @@
154 154  [[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 03.28.25.jpg]]
155 155  \\The "big figure" is 2900.  Price has traded down into that during the NY session.  Whenever a big figure is swept, either down into, or up into, it generally creates a tradeable bounce or retracement, even if it is very short lived. 
156 156  
157 -* Focus on the NY session time to find the OTE
157 +* Focus on the NY session time to find the {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}}
158 158  [[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 03.31.40.jpg||height="417" width="313"]]
159 159  
160 -* OTE marked
160 +* {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} marked
161 161  [[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 03.34.05.jpg||height="850" width="775"]]
162 162  
163 163  * and here is how it played out
... ... @@ -184,7 +184,7 @@
184 184  \\When we see these sharp runs that that run previous highs/lows, it's highly suspect to ICT.  If we get back down below the lowest down candle (ICT Bearish Breaker), breaking that low (which it does in the 3-6am bull candles above), the narrative changes to Bearish.
185 185  \\So what we do is go to that Breaker, draw the line out in time and then you'll be able to see the real turning point, or the real support/resistance level if you like.  Look at the 7-9am candles on the right where it touches the 1.2371 line.
186 186  
187 -* This provides the narrative behind finding and OTE with this structure in place.  It can occur in a trendless market environment, and doesn't have to have a bullish or bearish trend on the daily chart, so go into the lower timeframes.
187 +* This provides the narrative behind finding and {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} with this structure in place.  It can occur in a trendless market environment, and doesn't have to have a bullish or bearish trend on the daily chart, so go into the lower timeframes.
188 188  
189 189  * 1h chart marked up showing the previous days low as our highlighted candle is a ICT Bearish Breaker and tends to indicate that we are going for new lows and it is likely we will target the previous days low.
190 190  [[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 04.59.43.jpg]]
... ... @@ -193,16 +193,16 @@
193 193  * 5m with the NY Session highlighted
194 194  [[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 05.01.46.jpg]]
195 195  \\
196 -* and here is the OTE Fib marked.
196 +* and here is the {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} Fib marked.
197 197  [[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 05.04.42.jpg]]
198 198  \\stops will be above the 1.0 point
199 -\\We see the high, down to the low, and then the price returning to the OTE where we can fill our order.  Our -2 level is the 1.23 big level and the institutions reaching for the old lows and the liquidity that can be found there.
199 +\\We see the high, down to the low, and then the price returning to the {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} where we can fill our order.  Our -2 level is the 1.23 big level and the institutions reaching for the old lows and the liquidity that can be found there.
200 200  
201 -* Also note, that we have not yet taken our previous days lows, so there is a second possible OTE entry.  The price starts to retrace at at 11am - which is just outside of our session window, but still acceptable.  So, place the fib and see if this retracement suggests a trade
201 +* Also note, that we have not yet taken our previous days lows, so there is a second possible {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} entry.  The price starts to retrace at at 11am - which is just outside of our session window, but still acceptable.  So, place the fib and see if this retracement suggests a trade
202 202  
203 203  * Fib placed
204 204  [[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 05.17.16.jpg]]
205 -\\We see the high, low, the retracement into the 62 OTE region and we'll be targeting the previous days low with a short.  The stop would be above the high
205 +\\We see the high, low, the retracement into the 62 {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} region and we'll be targeting the previous days low with a short.  The stop would be above the high
206 206  \\Our targets: 
207 207  - 1.2282 - 1.2283 for our 0.5 level
208 208  - 1.2265 for our 1.0 level, or we could target the 1.227 level as a more likely target rather than getting a full fib.