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ICT YT - 2025-10-05 - ICT Forex and Futures Market Review 10-04-2025

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-10-06 11:10
1 00:00:05 --> 00:00:11 ICT: Hello folks, how the heck are you welcome back. Today is October 4, 2025
2 00:00:13 --> 00:00:19 and we're doing a quick review on the forex market. Most suspects are and the
3 00:00:19 --> 00:00:31 usual suspects being US dollar fiber or euro, USD cable or POUND DOLLAR, all
4 00:00:31 --> 00:00:34 right, it's going to be easy to go through these, because generally, the
5 00:00:34 --> 00:00:39 market is just held in a holding pattern right now. So you can see how everything
6 00:00:39 --> 00:00:44 on dollar is being trapped in between this inefficiency and this inefficiency.
7 00:00:45 --> 00:00:49 So by greeting them, you can see the pertinent levels. Here, I have the
8 00:00:49 --> 00:01:02 lowest reaching discount WIC, and I only have this suspension block greeted.
9 00:01:02 --> 00:01:07 Graded. We're on the right hand side. You can see the five minute chart
10 00:01:07 --> 00:01:11 reaches up into that volume imbalance right here. I have the two dark, black
11 00:01:11 --> 00:01:15 lines there, and I have a dashed line indicating its consequent encroachment
12 00:01:16 --> 00:01:21 between the two bodies. This candlesticks open, this candlesticks
13 00:01:21 --> 00:01:28 close. That's what these two levels are. Here you can see at the start of trading
14 00:01:30 --> 00:01:37 reaches up into the volume. Imbalance breaks, says displacement, there trades
15 00:01:38 --> 00:01:42 right back out to consequent encouragement, perfectly then we break
16 00:01:42 --> 00:01:53 lower, trading into the bullish fair value gap here, and then this quadrant
17 00:01:53 --> 00:01:59 here, we trade down into it there, and it falls short of reaching consequent
18 00:01:59 --> 00:02:04 encouragement of the PI side, balance, cell sign efficiency shown here at 9758
19 00:02:08 --> 00:02:14 point, or 58 two. So overall, it's kind of like doing nothing. And I mentioned
20 00:02:14 --> 00:02:17 this earlier in the week, which is another reason why I keep telling you
21 00:02:17 --> 00:02:23 all that. Keep saying, please talk about forex. Please talk about forex. If Forex
22 00:02:23 --> 00:02:27 is going to be doing things like this, I'm not interested in it, and it's going
23 00:02:27 --> 00:02:31 to make it harder for you as a student to navigate in that market, because it's
24 00:02:31 --> 00:02:37 not highly liquid, it's not loose, it's high resistance, not low resistance,
25 00:02:37 --> 00:02:42 liquidity runs. So it's very, very difficult for you to navigate a market
26 00:02:42 --> 00:02:46 like that. So I try to take your attention away from it. My attention
27 00:02:46 --> 00:02:50 certainly diverted to other markets, like the futures market. But moving on
28 00:02:50 --> 00:02:55 into Euro, dollar, similar thing. We have a sell sound balance, buy some
29 00:02:55 --> 00:03:00 efficiency, highest premium wick annotated there, you can see the
30 00:03:00 --> 00:03:07 consequent encouragement over here at 1.17562 and the lower quadrant being at
31 00:03:08 --> 00:03:20 1.17449 you can See on Friday's trading, we traded up into the 1.17562 point,
32 00:03:20 --> 00:03:29 17562, consequent encroachment. I have it colored. It's purple to contrast that
33 00:03:29 --> 00:03:32 there. Okay, so that way you're not going to see that and think that's the
34 00:03:32 --> 00:03:39 same level. And then the upper quadrant coming in at 1.17449 that's it, right
35 00:03:39 --> 00:03:44 here. So really, there's nothing in here. It's all that exciting about Euro
36 00:03:44 --> 00:03:49 dollar, it's not moved a lot at all. I mean, it's really, really small ranges.
37 00:03:50 --> 00:03:55 So if you get excited around 20 handles for 20 pips, and to me, it's not worth
38 00:03:55 --> 00:04:01 paying any in mind or any attention to it right? Moving on into cable. Now this
39 00:04:01 --> 00:04:09 one has a little bit better structure, so you can see we had lower quadrant of
40 00:04:09 --> 00:04:13 this premium wick being measured. And I also did the lower quadrant on this one
41 00:04:13 --> 00:04:22 just for contrast. Okay, so as we were compressing smaller in the wicks, and
42 00:04:22 --> 00:04:27 then the discount WIC being shown here, you can see that the low is defined by
43 00:04:27 --> 00:04:30 the upper quadrant of this discount, WIC coming in at 1.34302
44 00:04:37 --> 00:04:41 that's that level right there. We have a shift in market structure, buy side of
45 00:04:41 --> 00:04:47 miles, sell side efficiency, comes right back down into it and rallies, leaving
46 00:04:48 --> 00:04:55 that which at the high of this discount wick. And then we come right back down
47 00:04:55 --> 00:04:59 into it there on some more trading into this buy side of miles, sell side of.
48 00:05:00 --> 00:05:06 Efficiency, then it rallies higher. We have a breaker, low, high, lower, low,
49 00:05:07 --> 00:05:15 carry that forward. That's a breakaway gap, measuring gap, and then trading up
50 00:05:15 --> 00:05:24 into the quadrant 1.34864 and that's the lower quadrant of this wick here. Okay,
51 00:05:25 --> 00:05:31 you would still have this in here by by contrast, you can see it. So this is one
52 00:05:31 --> 00:05:34 objective could reach for someone worse, if it went to this quadrant and went
53 00:05:34 --> 00:05:38 higher, you would expect it to reach for that one. So that's how we we work
54 00:05:38 --> 00:05:45 through nested or closely printed wicks that are in subsequent candles. And
55 00:05:47 --> 00:05:51 apart from that, really didn't do too much at all, really, but it had a better
56 00:05:51 --> 00:06:04 run about 45 handles or so, 8050 handles, moving on into futures and
57 00:06:06 --> 00:06:13 focusing on December mini Nasdaq futures. All right, so on the left hand
58 00:06:14 --> 00:06:18 side, I mentioned this on Twitter yesterday. So if you look at the posts,
59 00:06:18 --> 00:06:23 I didn't do any live streaming, and I mentioned what I thought was salient at
60 00:06:23 --> 00:06:31 the time. So buy sign and balance, sell side efficiency here, and the market was
61 00:06:31 --> 00:06:37 pulling back after making another higher high on a Friday. And I'm showing you
62 00:06:37 --> 00:06:44 Thursday's opening range real time or regular trading hours, opening range
63 00:06:44 --> 00:06:50 gap. Rather, that's this here, so that'll look familiar. And it closed
64 00:06:50 --> 00:06:55 that gap there perfectly, and then came right back up to it again there, came
65 00:06:55 --> 00:06:59 back down to consequent encroachment, rallied up into some random level in
66 00:06:59 --> 00:07:04 here, and then fell out of bed and took out the intermediate term sell South
67 00:07:04 --> 00:07:11 Dakota pool I mentioned on Thursday's commentary, and looking at that rally,
68 00:07:11 --> 00:07:14 it takes us right back up into Thursday's regular trading hours.
69 00:07:14 --> 00:07:18 Opening range, gap, lower quadrant. So the labels here are Thursday's regular
70 00:07:18 --> 00:07:24 trading hours, closing price, Thursday's regular trading hours, opening range
71 00:07:24 --> 00:07:30 gap. Lower quadrant, consequent encroachment. Upper quadrant, the
72 00:07:31 --> 00:07:37 opening price there based on Thursday's trading, no opening range gap is being
73 00:07:37 --> 00:07:42 plotted in this discussion. On Friday's trading, when you have these real big,
74 00:07:42 --> 00:07:46 wide gaps like that, you definitely want to carry them forward, and they're going
75 00:07:46 --> 00:07:51 to be utilized the next day, especially if you're inside the range between what
76 00:07:51 --> 00:07:56 boundaries are referring to inside what range, the high and the low of that
77 00:07:56 --> 00:08:03 previous day's Opening range gap. So just notice how the sensitivity here,
78 00:08:03 --> 00:08:07 like that's that's beautiful. It's not pivot numbers, it's not support and
79 00:08:07 --> 00:08:12 resistance. So dropping down into a one minute chart, because we were just
80 00:08:12 --> 00:08:16 looking at a five minute chart. Now we're only looking at Friday's trading.
81 00:08:16 --> 00:08:20 So here's first presents a fair value gap there, and carrying that forward and
82 00:08:20 --> 00:08:24 grading it. You can see all those levels we try trade up into Thursday's regular
83 00:08:24 --> 00:08:32 trading hours, opening range, gap high, and we break down. And now refer to
84 00:08:32 --> 00:08:39 yesterday or October 3, 2025, commentary and the notes I posted in telegram. And
85 00:08:39 --> 00:08:45 you'll see what these suspension blocks are. I'm not going to go over again
86 00:08:45 --> 00:08:54 here, but we trade down to consequent encroachment of this discount WIC. Carry
87 00:08:54 --> 00:08:59 that forward. We trade up into first presents a fair value gap hits all the
88 00:08:59 --> 00:09:03 quadrant levels, consequent encroachment. Break lower. We have a
89 00:09:03 --> 00:09:08 bullish fair value gap that becomes an inversion Fairbank gap here and again at
90 00:09:08 --> 00:09:14 the regular trading hours, opening range gap, upper quadrant. Okay, I saw some
91 00:09:14 --> 00:09:17 people that were saying I was calling this level wrong. It's not the upper
92 00:09:17 --> 00:09:20 quadrant. You don't know what you're talking about. Okay, that's why I burned
93 00:09:20 --> 00:09:25 you off of Max I won't look at your your posts. Don't try to correct me about
94 00:09:26 --> 00:09:30 something. I know you're just learning about it here. And talk to me about what
95 00:09:30 --> 00:09:33 you think I'm doing wrong. I'll make mistakes, but I know what I was talking
96 00:09:33 --> 00:09:41 about when I was posting it. So it sells off here and trades down into the lower
97 00:09:41 --> 00:09:46 quadrant, and then all the way back up to the higher suspension block. Now this
98 00:09:47 --> 00:09:52 is shaded, not green here, like it was when I presented to you yesterday. It
99 00:09:52 --> 00:09:56 now it's acting as an inversion level. So it's going to be a premium array hits
100 00:09:56 --> 00:10:00 the consequent encroachment of that perfectly and sells off you. Comes back
101 00:10:00 --> 00:10:06 up inside this one again, sells off inefficiency, inversion, fair value gap
102 00:10:06 --> 00:10:12 after this fails, and when it's heavy and bearish, that's what we want to see.
103 00:10:12 --> 00:10:18 And I mentioned that we would see the lower quadrant and then the fair value
104 00:10:18 --> 00:10:23 gap. I asked on Twitter, did you have this highlighted on your daily chart,
105 00:10:23 --> 00:10:27 and is it graded? And we got down to lower quadrant. I'm sorry, upper
106 00:10:27 --> 00:10:34 quadrant, rather, at 24,009 55 that's this level here. It trades down to here
107 00:10:34 --> 00:10:39 and gets very, very close to consequent encroachment. But says Not today, and
108 00:10:39 --> 00:10:50 came off that enclosed up here. Easy if conditions, we had a high of the week at
109 00:10:50 --> 00:10:58 25,001 96 and a half, and the low came in at 24,006 33 and a quarter. That's
110 00:10:58 --> 00:11:01 this candlesticks quick, and this candlesticks quick, making the daily
111 00:11:01 --> 00:11:09 range boundaries high and low. And then here is the 20% of the range. It's
112 00:11:09 --> 00:11:17 25,083 and three quarters. 30% of the range of the Week is 25,027 and a half.
113 00:11:17 --> 00:11:27 And then 40% was 24,971.25 so. And those levels here you can see them right here.
114 00:11:28 --> 00:11:32 They're shortened to nail go to the hard right edge. You can see how they were
115 00:11:32 --> 00:11:37 delivered to so TGIF was delivered, actually almost went down to half the
116 00:11:37 --> 00:11:43 weekly range, left that portion with that candlesticks wick that opened as
117 00:11:43 --> 00:11:52 well. All right, so moving into the afternoon, all I did was move forward in
118 00:11:52 --> 00:11:56 the chart, and you can see how we can wrap into consequent crochet from that
119 00:11:56 --> 00:12:00 suspension block that becomes an inversion level Same here. Fills that
120 00:12:00 --> 00:12:05 small little gap right there. It's too small for me to annotate. Breaks lower
121 00:12:05 --> 00:12:08 the body's respecting the upper quadrant doesn't come up to the top, but this
122 00:12:08 --> 00:12:14 bias on balance sells on efficiency. Measure your volume imbalance, and then
123 00:12:14 --> 00:12:17 breaks lower, hits the low of it, and then sells off and comes right back out
124 00:12:17 --> 00:12:21 to that same inversion for your body gap. And then this hammers and bangs in
125 00:12:21 --> 00:12:26 between 40% of the weekly range and 30% of the weekly range and the river
126 00:12:26 --> 00:12:30 trading hours closing price from Thursday, and that's where it defined
127 00:12:30 --> 00:12:35 the range going into the close now, for the folks that complain and bellyache to
128 00:12:35 --> 00:12:40 me, please talk about forex, because you trade CFDs or Forex payers outside the
129 00:12:40 --> 00:12:47 US. I don't know why you're not doing this, okay, because you're able to
130 00:12:47 --> 00:12:53 follow what I'm doing in NASDAQ with us. 100 Okay, so if you go on to trading
131 00:12:53 --> 00:12:58 view, and this is being used, and I'm not suggesting that you should open up
132 00:12:58 --> 00:13:05 an account or trade with this brokerage firm, but capital.com pull that up for
133 00:13:05 --> 00:13:12 the US 100 market. Okay, this is the CFD version of Nasdaq futures contract. It's
134 00:13:12 --> 00:13:16 not going to mark to market perfectly, but I'm going to show you here that it's
135 00:13:16 --> 00:13:21 doing the same things I'm teaching that the futures market is doing. So instead
136 00:13:21 --> 00:13:25 of complaining to me and leaving comments in the sections of my video
137 00:13:25 --> 00:13:29 where I groom you, I make you invisible to a channel. It means I'm never going
138 00:13:29 --> 00:13:34 to see your comment anymore. Listen to me here, okay, because your time with me
139 00:13:34 --> 00:13:38 learning will be greatly increased and be much more fruitful if you listen to
140 00:13:38 --> 00:13:45 what I'm going to say daily chart of the US, 100 Okay. Same thing happening here.
141 00:13:45 --> 00:13:54 This is TGIF. Same thing, high and low, half, 40% 20% it had that much of a
142 00:13:54 --> 00:13:58 retracement. But more specifically, first present the fair value gap. It
143 00:13:58 --> 00:14:03 trades up into it. There, hits the quadrants, consequent encroachment sells
144 00:14:03 --> 00:14:08 off the upper quadrant of Thursday's regular trading hours, opening range
145 00:14:08 --> 00:14:17 gap, regular trading hours, opening range gap, high, consequent
146 00:14:17 --> 00:14:22 encroachment. Lower quadrant and the low of the regular trading hours, opening
147 00:14:22 --> 00:14:30 range gap below. And how am I getting those levels on us? 100 think about
148 00:14:30 --> 00:14:34 pause the video and think about how I got those levels. Because there is no
149 00:14:35 --> 00:14:40 greater trading hours for a CFD. I already taught this before, but you just
150 00:14:40 --> 00:14:45 didn't listen. You don't listen, you don't you don't take notes. You're so
151 00:14:45 --> 00:14:48 worried about what I'm going to teach new, but the things I'm jaw bending
152 00:14:48 --> 00:14:52 about, that's the stuff where you're really learning. What you're doing is
153 00:14:52 --> 00:14:59 you're going to be going into 4:14pm, Eastern Time, where that price is.
154 00:15:00 --> 00:15:05 Annotate that with a line segment, like this one here the ray, and then label
155 00:15:05 --> 00:15:13 that river. Trading hours, closing price for whatever day it is, okay, and when
156 00:15:13 --> 00:15:17 you're creating it, you're creating it for the next trading day. So if you're
157 00:15:17 --> 00:15:22 looking at it on 4:14pm, Eastern Time on a Wednesday, you're looking at a
158 00:15:22 --> 00:15:27 Thursday opening range level. That's how you're going to define it. And then
159 00:15:27 --> 00:15:32 you're going to wait until 930 eastern time the next morning, and when it opens
160 00:15:32 --> 00:15:35 up. That's your other reference point. So between those two reference points,
161 00:15:35 --> 00:15:39 that's going to be your regular trading hours, opening range gap high and low,
162 00:15:40 --> 00:15:44 there won't be a gap. You're just simply just going to the one minute candlestick
163 00:15:45 --> 00:15:49 for 9:30am Eastern Time and 4:14pm Eastern Time, and you're going to get
164 00:15:49 --> 00:15:54 the same information that I'm showing you here, and it's the same thing that
165 00:15:54 --> 00:16:00 I'm teaching with the futures market. Why are you complicating everything? And
166 00:16:00 --> 00:16:06 you can see how we delivered down into the upper quadrant, just like I did in
167 00:16:06 --> 00:16:10 the futures market. Calling it on X on Friday afternoon, we traded down into
168 00:16:10 --> 00:16:14 the upper quadrant of the buy side and balance outside efficiency. And then it
169 00:16:14 --> 00:16:19 came right back off that and trading right near the regular trading hours,
170 00:16:19 --> 00:16:25 opening range gap low from Thursday's trading. Don't just discard the previous
171 00:16:25 --> 00:16:30 day's opening range gaps. You're going to see that the algorithm is still using
172 00:16:30 --> 00:16:35 them. And because this is going to track the real futures market, where is it
173 00:16:35 --> 00:16:39 going to get its rhyme and reason for where it's going to go up and down, what
174 00:16:39 --> 00:16:51 that futures market is doing? Right, folks, that's it for this one. Hope you
175 00:16:51 --> 00:16:55 found it insightful until talk to you next time. I wish you good luck and good
176 00:16:55 --> 00:16:56 trading.