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ICT YT - 2025-02-14 - 2025 Lecture Series - NQ Live Execution Using Analysis - Shared In Telegram 02-13-2025

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-04-03 12:11
1 00:00:12 --> 00:00:15 ICT: Welcome back, folks. All right, so if you're wondering where I've been,
2 00:00:15 --> 00:00:21 obviously I'm human. I'm not AI. So I have been married to a lovely woman
3 00:00:22 --> 00:00:28 since 2001 and we are celebrating our 24th anniversary together tomorrow on
4 00:00:28 --> 00:00:34 Valentine's Day. So we are sharing time with one another. And I've not been able
5 00:00:34 --> 00:00:39 to spend much time with the charts, but today, I felt we were going to likely
6 00:00:39 --> 00:00:44 draw up into some buy side. And I want to remind you all that I covered this in
7 00:00:45 --> 00:00:52 video, and I've covered it inside of, obviously, the telegram channel I
8 00:00:52 --> 00:00:58 mentioned in the shotgun Saturday last week. Believe it was we were in this
9 00:00:58 --> 00:01:03 large consolidation on daily chart for NQ. And I mentioned that I didn't
10 00:01:03 --> 00:01:08 believe we were done yet. And this would be a draw on liquidity. These highs
11 00:01:08 --> 00:01:17 here, December 26 of, 2024 and the high at January 22 2025, so right above that
12 00:01:17 --> 00:01:25 big buy side liquidity. And we saw how price, not easily, not one shot, but
13 00:01:25 --> 00:01:29 eventually gravitated towards that level here. Okay, so we worked inside of this
14 00:01:29 --> 00:01:38 inefficiency for a little while between here and here, and I handle that as a
15 00:01:38 --> 00:01:43 volume imbalance, and you can see all of that business being supported there and
16 00:01:43 --> 00:01:48 eventually pumping it up into here. Now the remaining portion of south side of
17 00:01:48 --> 00:01:53 balance by side and efficiency is in this area between this candle high and
18 00:01:53 --> 00:02:01 that candles low. So your chart would have this area annotated right there.
19 00:02:02 --> 00:02:06 Okay, so that's what you'd be looking for. So that's the only portion above
20 00:02:07 --> 00:02:10 these relative equal highs that's inefficient. And then we have the old
21 00:02:10 --> 00:02:17 high here. Okay, so I believe that it's possible that we'll eventually make a
22 00:02:17 --> 00:02:22 new all time high, but we're just going to be content with this for one week.
23 00:02:22 --> 00:02:33 I'm certainly content. So let's go over to the lower time frames, and I'll show
24 00:02:33 --> 00:02:37 you what I did today. And some of you are actually going to be angry. Okay, I
25 00:02:37 --> 00:02:41 can already anticipate this. You're like, why didn't you share this with us
26 00:02:41 --> 00:02:48 in the telegram channel? Well, frankly, I am on my personal time, and while my
27 00:02:48 --> 00:02:51 wife has her little coffee breaks and whatnot from whatever we're doing for
28 00:02:51 --> 00:02:58 that day, I take the liberty of just going in and doing what I want to do.
29 00:02:59 --> 00:03:05 And when her time ends with her personal schedule where she wants to now go out
30 00:03:05 --> 00:03:10 and about. I have to go and accompany her as her husband after we're together,
31 00:03:10 --> 00:03:15 right? So this morning I had the opportunity to do that, and I will now
32 00:03:15 --> 00:03:20 show you those executions with everything in line with what I gave you
33 00:03:20 --> 00:03:24 as a draw on liquidity and where we were likely to go in and queue. So take a
34 00:03:24 --> 00:03:32 look at it now. Bye, folks. So we're looking at a long entry in here. I'm
35 00:03:32 --> 00:03:38 going to be placing my stop loss right below the most recent one minute
36 00:03:38 --> 00:03:47 candlestick low, which I believe this is a pair of inerrant wicks. So in other
37 00:03:47 --> 00:03:54 words, just trading outside of the 645, minute Wednesday Asian session, bison
38 00:03:54 --> 00:04:01 about cell sign efficiency. That's what that little upper blue box is, and the
39 00:04:01 --> 00:04:05 stop loss is very, very tight. I'm adding more to it there, because I don't
40 00:04:05 --> 00:04:11 believe we're going to go any lower. So these are basically like Mohawks. I call
41 00:04:11 --> 00:04:15 it when it just colors outside the lines. And I'm expecting price to run up
42 00:04:15 --> 00:04:19 to that minor buy side liquidity. There's relative equal highs, and then
43 00:04:19 --> 00:04:28 credit towards the 21,006 98 level. First potential fair value gap that's
44 00:04:28 --> 00:04:33 being shown here, that is the first inefficiency after the PPI producer
45 00:04:33 --> 00:04:41 price index number. So I'm framing that as a point of interest for me to pay
46 00:04:41 --> 00:04:46 attention to should I get stopped out I might have to use that information to re
47 00:04:46 --> 00:04:50 enter if I choose to do so, I'll keep adding and building position here using
48 00:04:50 --> 00:04:58 the low that 645, minute Asian session from Wednesday, and I want to see price
49 00:04:58 --> 00:05:00 really try to make an attempt to get about. Of the
50 00:05:05 --> 00:05:07 21,008 80 level I,
51 00:05:24 --> 00:05:29 I'm speeding the video up, by the way, so the total time of recording for the
52 00:05:29 --> 00:05:34 trade executions you're going to witness was a little over one hour. So I've
53 00:05:34 --> 00:05:42 condensed it down to a quarter of that amount of time. Essentially, there
54 00:05:42 --> 00:05:53 belts. Okay, so I want to see it leave that lower half of that inefficiency
55 00:05:53 --> 00:05:59 that's shown here, then gravitate towards the upper half and not return
56 00:05:59 --> 00:06:04 back down the lower half that would be ideal. Our optimal trade levels would be
57 00:06:04 --> 00:06:06 the run to minor buy side liquidity. I
58 00:06:13 --> 00:06:18 don't want to build anything larger than 15 contracts, just as a means of
59 00:06:18 --> 00:06:21 illustrating what many of you have available to you when you're trading
60 00:06:21 --> 00:06:25 these prop accounts. That's reasonable for it to come up to the top of that
61 00:06:25 --> 00:06:29 inefficiency and then come right back down to consequent encroachment. I don't
62 00:06:29 --> 00:06:35 want to see it trade to the outside, lower edge of that blue shaded ine right
63 00:06:35 --> 00:06:41 now. Again, at the sake of sounding repetitive and annoying, it's based on
64 00:06:41 --> 00:06:48 five minute chart for NQ for Wednesday's Asian session at 640 include the volume
65 00:06:48 --> 00:06:50 of balances, and you'll see what I'm showing you here. You
66 00:07:15 --> 00:07:20 Well, if I hadn't already accumulated the 15 contracts position that I have
67 00:07:20 --> 00:07:26 now, I'd be looking to add one there, right there. All it is is coloring
68 00:07:26 --> 00:07:30 outside the lines. There's no reason for me to be worried. I'm gonna extend it
69 00:07:30 --> 00:07:35 out so you can track how it respects what the bodies inside that range, what
70 00:07:35 --> 00:07:44 the wicks are allowed to do to damage. And my stop loss is below. I'm if I
71 00:07:44 --> 00:07:49 hadn't taken along earlier, when I said I would have this is also where I would
72 00:07:49 --> 00:07:55 actually enter along. It's wonderful area to be going long on, and I would
73 00:07:55 --> 00:08:00 use that wick in the previous candle, low one on, tick below that, that would
74 00:08:00 --> 00:08:06 be my stop loss. That still would be fine, right? There. Looks scary, doesn't
75 00:08:06 --> 00:08:18 it looks scary, but isn't scary. All right, that's what I'm looking for. That
76 00:08:18 --> 00:08:23 type of indication that once the break above, then take in consideration that
77 00:08:23 --> 00:08:29 minor buy side liquidity opening bell. There we go. So let's take something off
78 00:08:29 --> 00:08:35 there and take away the risk. So now costs are covered. First partial has
79 00:08:35 --> 00:08:42 been banked. I want to see the bodies close above those relative equal highs.
80 00:08:42 --> 00:08:51 I don't want to see how you can see the execution, I apologize. So now I want to
81 00:08:51 --> 00:08:57 see it run up into that 21,009, 68 again, that level was shared with the
82 00:08:57 --> 00:09:07 telegram channel before the fact. I I'll resume later next week, Wednesday of
83 00:09:07 --> 00:09:11 next week, I'll go back to going in a telegram channel, calling minute by
84 00:09:11 --> 00:09:15 minute, candlestick commentary. But it's hard to do that when you're married and
85 00:09:15 --> 00:09:23 you're on your anniversary, right? Okay, and this is the first presented fair
86 00:09:23 --> 00:09:31 value gap from the opening range differences you're probably wondering.
87 00:09:31 --> 00:09:38 Let me take another partial off here. Want to raise a stop up, because ppi,
88 00:09:38 --> 00:09:43 there's like a CPI number. They can do a lot of head fakes. They can shoot this
89 00:09:43 --> 00:09:48 thing up and give me my limit learn and I'm done for the day. Or it can drop
90 00:09:48 --> 00:09:52 down and stop me out and force me to take additional entries to get that
91 00:09:52 --> 00:09:57 target. So I'm I'm electing to be a little bit more conservative. I've taken
92 00:09:57 --> 00:10:02 two partials. Stop has been raised to half of. The first percent of everybody
93 00:10:02 --> 00:10:09 got in the opening range. If it comes down, stops me, then I have to reassess
94 00:10:09 --> 00:10:14 and see what I want to do. But I'm holding for 21, 968, to deliver the
95 00:10:17 --> 00:10:20 first presents of everybody got the lower one. That's simply the first
96 00:10:20 --> 00:10:26 inefficiency after the PPI number and then opening range per sensor pay cut,
97 00:10:27 --> 00:10:36 as noted here. I'm not so much interested in the 645 minute bicycle
98 00:10:36 --> 00:10:41 sign efficiency from Wednesday's Asian session. So while it's on my chart right
99 00:10:41 --> 00:10:46 now, I'm more interested in seeing how the opening range first presents a fair
100 00:10:46 --> 00:10:53 value gap. I just got stopped out in in the positive. It wasn't a loss. But I
101 00:10:53 --> 00:10:59 want to see, how would you respect that first presented fair value gap, which is
102 00:10:59 --> 00:11:06 the post PPI number. And we're also trading right now at the middle of
103 00:11:06 --> 00:11:10 showing the executions here that right there is trading in the middle of the
104 00:11:10 --> 00:11:13 daily volume imbalance I showed you at the beginning of the video. So right
105 00:11:13 --> 00:11:18 there I'm going long on that basis. And it's also based on I'm inside of the
106 00:11:18 --> 00:11:21 first inefficiency after the PPI number. So I have two things going from a higher
107 00:11:21 --> 00:11:25 Time Frame, volume and balance. And balance on the daily and that first
108 00:11:25 --> 00:11:28 inefficiency, or first resistance, fair value gap, I set a balance. I'll set an
109 00:11:28 --> 00:11:33 efficiency after the PPI number released. So I'm building another
110 00:11:33 --> 00:11:38 position in here, and now I'm showing you the actual opening range gap. Okay,
111 00:11:38 --> 00:11:45 so now I'm interested in only interested in seeing it stay in the upper half, or
112 00:11:45 --> 00:11:50 using the high of that green box. So I'm still interested in going up into that
113 00:11:50 --> 00:11:56 21,009 68 I believe this was just to wash out anyone that was long. I put a
114 00:11:56 --> 00:12:02 lot of people on to that 21,009 68 and I think that there's a lot of interest
115 00:12:02 --> 00:12:05 that was wanting to sell above that price. So that's why we had that big,
116 00:12:06 --> 00:12:10 you know, rug pool, dropping it down. So right now, it's a little harder for them
117 00:12:10 --> 00:12:15 to want to be long. I'm long. Have risk in my stop right now, but I want to see
118 00:12:15 --> 00:12:22 how we trade above the opening range gap. I'm sorry, opening range first
119 00:12:22 --> 00:12:27 visits for bed at the area we're trading in right now, I want to see it leave
120 00:12:27 --> 00:12:30 aggressively on the upside, and I want to see the bodies remain on the outside
121 00:12:31 --> 00:12:36 above it. So I just removed the risk in this in the trade. So cover costs a
122 00:12:36 --> 00:12:39 little bit more pizza money in my pocket. I
123 00:12:46 --> 00:12:50 Okay, so we've moved outside, but the bodies have stayed inside, so that's a
124 00:12:50 --> 00:12:59 little bit problematic, and I already know I'm likely to get stopped out on
125 00:12:59 --> 00:13:04 this one here, but I'll be more inclined to re enter. Okay, so now I'm looking at
126 00:13:05 --> 00:13:14 that upper portion, or upper quadrant of the opening range gap, and I'm looking
127 00:13:14 --> 00:13:19 at the range between that and the 21,009 68 and I'm trying to determine what
128 00:13:19 --> 00:13:23 position size I want to build on now. So I'll start with three. I'm long there
129 00:13:23 --> 00:13:28 using the opening range gap high as a discount array. And now I want to put my
130 00:13:28 --> 00:13:34 stop loss below the upper quadrant, but also lower than the high of that first
131 00:13:34 --> 00:13:36 buy side and balance cell sign efficiency, or first presented fair
132 00:13:36 --> 00:13:39 value gap. After the PPI number released, I
133 00:13:47 --> 00:13:51 I'm watching the opening range gap. I'm sorry, the opening range presented pure
134 00:13:51 --> 00:13:56 value gap the upper blue box. And I'm interested in building longs at the low
135 00:13:56 --> 00:14:01 of that and also the high of the opening range gap in green. So in between those
136 00:14:01 --> 00:14:06 two levels, I'm real comfortable with adding and building it on that try to
137 00:14:06 --> 00:14:12 get it run up into that 21,009, 68, level. I believe it can go higher into
138 00:14:12 --> 00:14:18 what I was suggesting in the shop on Saturday, but I don't have the time to
139 00:14:18 --> 00:14:24 devote to babysitting it, so I'm going to have to just be diligent to work
140 00:14:24 --> 00:14:28 towards that 21,009, 68, level, and I don't have any way of monitoring it,
141 00:14:28 --> 00:14:33 because I'll be with my wife the whole day. So I have to do what I can do
142 00:14:33 --> 00:14:37 inside this short period of time, namely, before 1030 I'm
143 00:14:44 --> 00:14:47 we're working in consequent crochet of the opening range, first presented fair
144 00:14:47 --> 00:14:53 value gap. Again, that's just the full detailed name of the first presented
145 00:14:53 --> 00:14:58 fairba gap. I teach you that can't be 930 but can be as early as 931 Eastern
146 00:14:58 --> 00:14:58 time. I.
147 00:15:05 --> 00:15:11 All right. So now we've moved a little bit further then I wanted to. I wanted
148 00:15:11 --> 00:15:15 to get it one more tap into the opening range first, but as if everybody got
149 00:15:15 --> 00:15:19 below, I wanted to add more to it, but it ran away without me. So I'm just
150 00:15:19 --> 00:15:21 gonna have the babysit. What I have here?
151 00:15:30 --> 00:15:35 Okay, raise the stop up. So now I have the stop at the middle or consequence
152 00:15:35 --> 00:15:40 encroachment of the first presentive hair value gap that occurs between 931
153 00:15:42 --> 00:15:52 and 10 o'clock, always Eastern time. Now, immediately, I'm I'm looking at
154 00:15:52 --> 00:15:58 this thinking that it should run aggressively up to 21,009, 68, because
155 00:15:58 --> 00:16:02 it won't allow anyone to be on board, because there's not going to be
156 00:16:02 --> 00:16:06 significant retracements. So it'll run out a new higher high and then run to
157 00:16:06 --> 00:16:12 21,009, 68 that's what I'm expecting. Okay, I'm actually talking to Matt
158 00:16:12 --> 00:16:16 Miller. Trades by Matt in text at this time, I'm telling him that I think's
159 00:16:16 --> 00:16:22 going to happen here. Why is this guy, Matt, getting all the, the special
160 00:16:22 --> 00:16:27 treatment, because he's a nice guy. I like him, and I can pick friends whoever
161 00:16:27 --> 00:16:31 I want to be friends with, so don't be judging. And that's what I was looking
162 00:16:31 --> 00:16:38 for. And I texted myself just like that, but it falls short of the 21,009 68 and
163 00:16:39 --> 00:16:43 I want to take something off here, but it's only three contracts, so if it
164 00:16:43 --> 00:16:49 comes back down and trades into my PDA raise again, then I'll have to just
165 00:16:50 --> 00:16:57 resign myself to just simply taking another trade. But if I can be honest
166 00:16:57 --> 00:17:01 with you, I wish I was taking at least one contract off when we made the higher
167 00:17:01 --> 00:17:08 high on the day, okay? And now I'm thinking to myself, I'm going to take
168 00:17:08 --> 00:17:11 two off because I think it's going to run higher, maybe it might run higher,
169 00:17:12 --> 00:17:17 and I'll keep one contract on and limit it out with two and let it run and see,
170 00:17:17 --> 00:17:18 see how much juice I can get at this lemon I'm
171 00:17:26 --> 00:17:32 volatility today and this week has been off the charts. No pun intended. That's
172 00:17:32 --> 00:17:36 not what I wanted to see, but it comes back and stops me in the positive again.
173 00:17:36 --> 00:17:40 So I'm looking at that. Okay, it was a sweep above, I'm sorry, below the
174 00:17:40 --> 00:17:44 opening range gap, or opening range, first percent everybody gap. So I'm
175 00:17:44 --> 00:17:49 going long on the basis of the high of the opening range, or open open range,
176 00:17:51 --> 00:17:58 first percent of everybody gap. And right there's a good entry there using
177 00:17:58 --> 00:18:02 the high of it that blue box. And that's even better there. So adding more great
178 00:18:02 --> 00:18:06 consequent encroachment, I don't believe we're going to sweep the low of that
179 00:18:06 --> 00:18:09 again, because we've already colored Outside the Lines once before. That
180 00:18:09 --> 00:18:15 stopped me out, and now I'm just going to anticipate that run up into 21,009,
181 00:18:16 --> 00:18:22 68, most individuals wouldn't see this market structure. If I took everything
182 00:18:22 --> 00:18:26 off the chart and just had a naked chart, nobody would really in the retail
183 00:18:26 --> 00:18:30 space. Would really feel comfortable going along here. And that's what makes
184 00:18:30 --> 00:18:34 the setup even stronger, because knowing the draw on liquidity, they're just
185 00:18:34 --> 00:18:38 being really ruthless about not letting because I put a lot of people on 21,009
186 00:18:38 --> 00:18:42 68 so there's everybody that's long or has been paying attention to me, they
187 00:18:42 --> 00:18:46 all want to get out at that level or just above it, and that's why you're
188 00:18:46 --> 00:18:51 seeing this stuff. Oh, it sounds very narcissistic. It is what it is.
189 00:19:02 --> 00:19:07 Okay? I like where it's at here, and now I want to see it start breaking
190 00:19:07 --> 00:19:12 aggressively towards that 21,009, 68 no significant drops from here. That's
191 00:19:12 --> 00:19:13 what's optimal or ideal.
192 00:19:19 --> 00:19:27 My eyes watching that recent, quick high. I want to see how we gravitate
193 00:19:27 --> 00:19:31 towards that. If it's aggressive, then I'm going to want to move my stop loss
194 00:19:31 --> 00:19:35 and remove the risk, because it's too close to my target. And I don't want to
195 00:19:35 --> 00:19:39 see a trade get close to my target and then come back and put me into a losing
196 00:19:39 --> 00:19:44 trade that never should ever happen to any of you. All right, so we broke that,
197 00:19:44 --> 00:19:49 and it means the next rip higher would take us to the previous highest high of
198 00:19:49 --> 00:19:53 the day, and just above that is my target. So because we're in close
199 00:19:53 --> 00:19:59 proximity of those two specific price levels or particular prices, I'm not
200 00:19:59 --> 00:20:03 one. To hold the risk. So now I'm putting myself in a situation where now
201 00:20:03 --> 00:20:07 I'm going to be able to profit handsomely if, even if I'm wrong, it
202 00:20:07 --> 00:20:13 doesn't want to go up there, at least I'll come out with a nice dime or so.
203 00:20:18 --> 00:20:22 Now all of these trades could be taken by someone that uses these Prop funds
204 00:20:22 --> 00:20:24 and 15 contract maximum.
205 00:20:26 --> 00:20:32 And if that's the case, there's the limit order. I'll show you the
206 00:20:32 --> 00:20:33 executions. My
207 00:20:35 --> 00:20:39 wife just gave me the hairy eye, meaning I gotta get out of here. Nice
208 00:20:39 --> 00:20:45 executions, and that's a $33,000 day over 20 contracts. That's a retirement
209 00:20:45 --> 00:20:46 do.