Wiki source code of ICT YT - 2025-01-07 - 2025 Lecture Series - Making Money With SMC Concepts
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-01-08 09:05
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2 | |1 |00:00:00 ~-~-> 00:00:04 |ICT: Hello Folks. All right, so we're going to start a new lecture series | ||
3 | |2 |00:00:04 ~-~-> 00:00:09 |here. I don't want to really call it a mentorship, but we're going to do some | ||
4 | |3 |00:00:09 ~-~-> 00:00:16 |discussions, and I'm going to talk about how if I were a new student of my own | ||
5 | |4 |00:00:16 ~-~-> 00:00:21 |work, and I had recently completed my 2024 mentorship that's on this YouTube | ||
6 | |5 |00:00:21 ~-~-> 00:00:26 |channel for free, and I was able to go through a lot of the core content that | ||
7 | |6 |00:00:26 ~-~-> 00:00:32 |was produced in 2016 2017 through my paid mentorship. For anyone that is | ||
8 | |7 |00:00:32 ~-~-> 00:00:37 |always asking, Can I join your private mentorship? It's basically uploaded for | ||
9 | |8 |00:00:37 ~-~-> 00:00:43 |free on my YouTube channel. Okay, so dig into it, enjoy it and study it and take | ||
10 | |9 |00:00:43 ~-~-> 00:00:48 |what works for you out of it. Not everything that I have ever taught is | ||
11 | |10 |00:00:48 ~-~-> 00:00:55 |required to find consistently profitable trading, as you'll see in this lecture | ||
12 | |11 |00:00:55 ~-~-> 00:01:01 |series over the next 20 videos, which won't be very long, their focus is | ||
13 | |12 |00:01:01 ~-~-> 00:01:09 |primarily to illustrate how one might arrive at a model using the information | ||
14 | |13 |00:01:09 ~-~-> 00:01:14 |that's been brought to light on this YouTube channel. I want to, kind of make | ||
15 | |14 |00:01:14 ~-~-> 00:01:20 |it very simple, and I want to have every possible ICT concept, you know, that's | ||
16 | |15 |00:01:20 ~-~-> 00:01:23 |available on the YouTube channel. I kind of like want to focus on what was | ||
17 | |16 |00:01:23 ~-~-> 00:01:31 |discussed primarily off of the 2024 mentorship content. So for folks that | ||
18 | |17 |00:01:31 ~-~-> 00:01:36 |went through it and it was your first exposure to Smart Money concepts, or my | ||
19 | |18 |00:01:36 ~-~-> 00:01:41 |life's work, if you will, that introduction will be a little bit | ||
20 | |19 |00:01:41 ~-~-> 00:01:46 |amplified. But again, even with this lecture series, I will not exhaust every | ||
21 | |20 |00:01:46 ~-~-> 00:01:51 |possible concepts, approach or application, but I will hopefully | ||
22 | |21 |00:01:51 ~-~-> 00:01:58 |provide you a example of an executable trading plan. It will be employed with a | ||
23 | |22 |00:01:58 ~-~-> 00:02:04 |live, real money account that's a regulated CFTC, regulated broker. That | ||
24 | |23 |00:02:04 ~-~-> 00:02:07 |means it's not Market Replay. That means it's not demo it's not paper trading, | ||
25 | |24 |00:02:07 ~-~-> 00:02:13 |and you do have to pay taxes on the income that you make off of it. So if we | ||
26 | |25 |00:02:13 ~-~-> 00:02:19 |are to go into this with the intended goal that I have for it, I want to cover | ||
27 | |26 |00:02:19 ~-~-> 00:02:26 |basically five central tenants that anyone that goes through my content | ||
28 | |27 |00:02:26 ~-~-> 00:02:33 |should try to consider as focal points. Okay, there's lots of different rabbit | ||
29 | |28 |00:02:33 ~-~-> 00:02:38 |trails and things you can go down and study on a topical basis on this YouTube | ||
30 | |29 |00:02:38 ~-~-> 00:02:43 |channel, but for the folks that simply want to have something to go into their | ||
31 | |30 |00:02:43 ~-~-> 00:02:50 |back testing and look for, for them to go into a tape reading endeavor where | ||
32 | |31 |00:02:50 ~-~-> 00:02:54 |they watch price they don't push a button, whether it be demo or live, and | ||
33 | |32 |00:02:54 ~-~-> 00:02:58 |then they forward test with a demo account or paper trading account. And | ||
34 | |33 |00:02:58 ~-~-> 00:03:02 |then eventually, and some of you will come to the point at which you'll | ||
35 | |34 |00:03:02 ~-~-> 00:03:06 |discover that you feel that you have arrived at consistency in your paper | ||
36 | |35 |00:03:06 ~-~-> 00:03:11 |trading or demo trading. And when you decide not when I decide for you, not | ||
37 | |36 |00:03:11 ~-~-> 00:03:15 |when anybody else should, should decide it for you, it's something that you're | ||
38 | |37 |00:03:15 ~-~-> 00:03:21 |going to come to your own decision. And you're going to want to eventually move | ||
39 | |38 |00:03:21 ~-~-> 00:03:27 |from paper trading or demo trading to a live funded your real money account. | ||
40 | |39 |00:03:29 ~-~-> 00:03:33 |When that happens, I get lots of questions on, how might that work for | ||
41 | |40 |00:03:33 ~-~-> 00:03:40 |someone as a student, I'm going to pantomime in the month of February, how | ||
42 | |41 |00:03:40 ~-~-> 00:03:45 |that might be done. It is not a panacea. That means it's not the be all, end all. | ||
43 | |42 |00:03:45 ~-~-> 00:03:49 |The only way it can be done. It's just to provide an example. Okay, so that way | ||
44 | |43 |00:03:50 ~-~-> 00:03:56 |it gives a a real world, realistic approach on how to transition from demo | ||
45 | |44 |00:03:56 ~-~-> 00:04:03 |and paper trading to then slowly rolling out the implementation of live risk with | ||
46 | |45 |00:04:03 ~-~-> 00:04:07 |real money. Okay? Now I know there's a lot of folks in my community that use | ||
47 | |46 |00:04:07 ~-~-> 00:04:11 |prop counts. That means these companies that allow you to trade with demo | ||
48 | |47 |00:04:11 ~-~-> 00:04:15 |accounts, and then if you're correct with them, and you do all the hop, skip | ||
49 | |48 |00:04:15 ~-~-> 00:04:21 |and jump through the things that they add into the mix as a as a traitor. | ||
50 | |49 |00:04:22 ~-~-> 00:04:25 |These rules that they create for you that, in my opinion, are above and | ||
51 | |50 |00:04:25 ~-~-> 00:04:30 |beyond what is what is necessary. They complicate it. In my opinion, it's sold | ||
52 | |51 |00:04:30 ~-~-> 00:04:36 |on the idea that it's to help you, but it's really a handicap, and very few | ||
53 | |52 |00:04:36 ~-~-> 00:04:41 |people have the wherewithal to get through those rules. So I'm not trying | ||
54 | |53 |00:04:41 ~-~-> 00:04:49 |to counsel you to use prop counts. I am encouraging you to eventually, if you | ||
55 | |54 |00:04:49 ~-~-> 00:04:54 |decide to do this with real money, use a small amount of money. Okay, now, what's | ||
56 | |55 |00:04:54 ~-~-> 00:05:01 |a small amount of money? Well, that's kind of I. Uh, relative to who you're | ||
57 | |56 |00:05:01 ~-~-> 00:05:05 |talking to, a little bit of money for me may not be a little bit of money for | ||
58 | |57 |00:05:05 ~-~-> 00:05:10 |you, and a lot of money for me may not be a lot of money to some of you that | ||
59 | |58 |00:05:10 ~-~-> 00:05:15 |are listening. So it's all subjective to you know what it is that constitutes a | ||
60 | |59 |00:05:15 ~-~-> 00:05:20 |large amount of money. But if you look at the prop firm, companies, if you look | ||
61 | |60 |00:05:20 ~-~-> 00:05:25 |at what they're allowing you to lose before the the account is shut down. If | ||
62 | |61 |00:05:25 ~-~-> 00:05:31 |you started a Live account with, say, half of what they allow for, for | ||
63 | |62 |00:05:31 ~-~-> 00:05:36 |instance, some larger known prop companies may afford you to lose a | ||
64 | |63 |00:05:36 ~-~-> 00:05:41 |hypothetical $3,000 and then you are essentially blown out and you have to | ||
65 | |64 |00:05:41 ~-~-> 00:05:50 |reset. Others are $1,000 some are 1500 and it varies from company, company and | ||
66 | |65 |00:05:50 ~-~-> 00:05:58 |whatever, I guess, plan or option you use to trade through. My opinion is that | ||
67 | |66 |00:05:58 ~-~-> 00:06:04 |if you're going to trade with live funds, the very minimum, the very, very, | ||
68 | |67 |00:06:04 ~-~-> 00:06:10 |very minimum is 1000 US dollars. Now when I say that, that doesn't mean that | ||
69 | |68 |00:06:10 ~-~-> 00:06:18 |you go out and try to trade larger than you should with $1,000 account, if you | ||
70 | |69 |00:06:18 ~-~-> 00:06:23 |trade with a micro account, which is what you're seeing this chart here, the | ||
71 | |70 |00:06:23 ~-~-> 00:06:28 |upper left hand corner, you can see it says micro E, mini NASDAQ, 100 that | ||
72 | |71 |00:06:28 ~-~-> 00:06:35 |means the point fluctuation. That means one point higher or lower represents a | ||
73 | |72 |00:06:35 ~-~-> 00:06:42 |$2 profit or loss per contract. Now in mini contract, one point fluctuation | ||
74 | |73 |00:06:42 ~-~-> 00:06:49 |higher or lower is a multiple of $20 profit or loss depending upon on the | ||
75 | |74 |00:06:49 ~-~-> 00:06:56 |direction of the position you're holding. My advice is no one that ever | ||
76 | |75 |00:06:56 ~-~-> 00:07:03 |transitions from paper trading into Live account trading and or prop should ever | ||
77 | |76 |00:07:04 ~-~-> 00:07:08 |go right into mini contracts ever, because you're transitioning to a point | ||
78 | |77 |00:07:08 ~-~-> 00:07:13 |at which now risk means something. It doesn't mean as much when you're trading | ||
79 | |78 |00:07:13 ~-~-> 00:07:16 |with a demo account. Doesn't mean as much when you're tape reading or back | ||
80 | |79 |00:07:16 ~-~-> 00:07:19 |testing. That doesn't It doesn't cost you anything if you're wrong. Doesn't | ||
81 | |80 |00:07:19 ~-~-> 00:07:23 |cost you anything terms of pride or ego, and certainly doesn't cost you anything | ||
82 | |81 |00:07:23 ~-~-> 00:07:30 |in terms of monetary loss. So starting with the very minimum that's available | ||
83 | |82 |00:07:30 ~-~-> 00:07:35 |in terms of a futures trader, you have to start with the smallest, or least in | ||
84 | |83 |00:07:35 ~-~-> 00:07:40 |terms of risk. And that is not a disadvantage. It is extremely | ||
85 | |84 |00:07:40 ~-~-> 00:07:45 |advantageous for you to apply this approach going into live trading. So | ||
86 | |85 |00:07:45 ~-~-> 00:07:48 |there's five central tenets I want to cover, and then we'll get into the nuts | ||
87 | |86 |00:07:48 ~-~-> 00:07:52 |of this lecture, because I don't want to be too long. So making money with Smart | ||
88 | |87 |00:07:52 ~-~-> 00:07:58 |Money concepts. 101, okay. The premise is this, you're going to settle in on | ||
89 | |88 |00:07:58 ~-~-> 00:08:04 |one market or one asset class, okay? And since I'm predominantly talking about | ||
90 | |89 |00:08:04 ~-~-> 00:08:09 |initially, but we're going to talk about forex two in this 2025 lecture series. | ||
91 | |90 |00:08:09 ~-~-> 00:08:12 |But I have to start here, because this is predominantly where I'm going to be | ||
92 | |91 |00:08:13 ~-~-> 00:08:19 |focusing my actual trading the futures market. Since I like trading index | ||
93 | |92 |00:08:19 ~-~-> 00:08:23 |futures, I have a choice. I could trade the Dow futures. I could trade the s, p | ||
94 | |93 |00:08:23 ~-~-> 00:08:29 |and or the NASDAQ. I prefer the NASDAQ, because of its volatility, it means it's | ||
95 | |94 |00:08:29 ~-~-> 00:08:35 |a lot more wild when it moves, and because of that, it will afford me a lot | ||
96 | |95 |00:08:35 ~-~-> 00:08:41 |of setups intraday. Okay, now I could trade less than one minute I can trade | ||
97 | |96 |00:08:41 ~-~-> 00:08:44 |one minute charts, I can trade five minute charts, a 15 minute chart, an | ||
98 | |97 |00:08:44 ~-~-> 00:08:48 |hourly chart, a daily chart, a weekly chart, but for the sake of using the | ||
99 | |98 |00:08:48 ~-~-> 00:08:52 |information that was covered in 2024 and the core content, I'm going to try to | ||
100 | |99 |00:08:52 ~-~-> 00:09:01 |focus on one minute or higher. And the idea is to teach how to go into trying | ||
101 | |100 |00:09:01 ~-~-> 00:09:07 |to find a consistent, income driven model. It is not a get rich, it's not a | ||
102 | |101 |00:09:07 ~-~-> 00:09:12 |win a Robin's cup, it's not a competition model. All those things can | ||
103 | |102 |00:09:12 ~-~-> 00:09:16 |be tweaked, and I'll talk about that before we close the lecture series out. | ||
104 | |103 |00:09:16 ~-~-> 00:09:20 |I don't know what point that will be, but sometime before I end it this year, | ||
105 | |104 |00:09:20 ~-~-> 00:09:25 |I'll talk about how you can tweak that and make it so it's Olympic level. But I | ||
106 | |105 |00:09:25 ~-~-> 00:09:28 |don't want anyone to go into this with the expectation that you're going in | ||
107 | |106 |00:09:28 ~-~-> 00:09:32 |there to try to make the maximum amount of money. You're not trying to be the | ||
108 | |107 |00:09:32 ~-~-> 00:09:38 |newest, highest paid out ICT, SMC, but don't want to call yourself an ICT | ||
109 | |108 |00:09:39 ~-~-> 00:09:45 |student record holder in terms of what you make in Prop. So it's meant to make | ||
110 | |109 |00:09:45 ~-~-> 00:09:51 |your ends meet. That means whatever bill that you have monthly, that's | ||
111 | |110 |00:09:52 ~-~-> 00:09:56 |a real world cost for you. It might be a insurance premium, it might be a car | ||
112 | |111 |00:09:56 ~-~-> 00:10:00 |note premium, it might be a rent or mortgage payment or a person. Percentage | ||
113 | |112 |00:10:00 ~-~-> 00:10:03 |of it, you should sit down and figure out what that is that you're going to | ||
114 | |113 |00:10:03 ~-~-> 00:10:06 |target as your realistic goal. It doesn't mean try to make all of your | ||
115 | |114 |00:10:06 ~-~-> 00:10:10 |bill money, because that's again, trying to place an Olympic level expectation on | ||
116 | |115 |00:10:10 ~-~-> 00:10:15 |yourself as a brand new trader transitioning from demo into real money | ||
117 | |116 |00:10:15 ~-~-> 00:10:20 |risk with live funds. So you want to have very, very soft roll out of what it | ||
118 | |117 |00:10:20 ~-~-> 00:10:25 |is that you're targeting. So by selling it on one market, and I'll be using | ||
119 | |118 |00:10:25 ~-~-> 00:10:30 |predominantly the Nasdaq futures contract, I will be starting with a | ||
120 | |119 |00:10:30 ~-~-> 00:10:38 |micro account, or not account, but employing the micro contract, because I | ||
121 | |120 |00:10:38 ~-~-> 00:10:42 |want you to see how, even though that's a very small fluctuation in terms of | ||
122 | |121 |00:10:42 ~-~-> 00:10:48 |monetary profit or loss, it starts to build up quickly. And that is, | ||
123 | |122 |00:10:48 ~-~-> 00:10:51 |unfortunately, something that is overlooked by everyone, because they all | ||
124 | |123 |00:10:51 ~-~-> 00:10:57 |see people trading 30 contracts, 15 contracts, multiple contracts of the | ||
125 | |124 |00:10:57 ~-~-> 00:11:01 |many, and they see what the payouts can be if those are consistently done | ||
126 | |125 |00:11:01 ~-~-> 00:11:08 |correctly, but they don't understand the power of fear and greed while holding | ||
127 | |126 |00:11:08 ~-~-> 00:11:12 |those positions, and that's why you don't see most people that trade that | ||
128 | |127 |00:11:12 ~-~-> 00:11:15 |big size. They don't hold those positions very long, because it wears | ||
129 | |128 |00:11:15 ~-~-> 00:11:18 |them out emotionally and psychologically. So I want to kind of | ||
130 | |129 |00:11:18 ~-~-> 00:11:23 |show you how to hold on to very small positions, and gradually transition to | ||
131 | |130 |00:11:23 ~-~-> 00:11:27 |being comfortable holding and letting the concepts do all the work for you. | ||
132 | |131 |00:11:28 ~-~-> 00:11:32 |But you have to grow in your understanding where there's now real | ||
133 | |132 |00:11:32 ~-~-> 00:11:37 |money risk, and that can't be learned from a book. You can't hear me talk | ||
134 | |133 |00:11:37 ~-~-> 00:11:40 |about it. You can hear other people talk about it. You have to experience it. And | ||
135 | |134 |00:11:40 ~-~-> 00:11:44 |so many of you that have tried to do this in the past or about to try to do | ||
136 | |135 |00:11:44 ~-~-> 00:11:50 |it, you're many times regretful for having done so, because you're trying to | ||
137 | |136 |00:11:50 ~-~-> 00:11:57 |do too large of risk, holding too big of positions or trading too often. Central | ||
138 | |137 |00:11:57 ~-~-> 00:12:03 |tenant number two is knowing how price tends to deliver based and by time, that | ||
139 | |138 |00:12:03 ~-~-> 00:12:07 |means by using an economic calendar and understanding time based delivery, that | ||
140 | |139 |00:12:07 ~-~-> 00:12:13 |means macros. That means certain aspects of the daily range. When do markets | ||
141 | |140 |00:12:13 ~-~-> 00:12:17 |usually run? When do markets usually consolidate? When do they likely reverse | ||
142 | |141 |00:12:17 ~-~-> 00:12:21 |those types of things? And I covered a lot of that in this YouTube channel, but | ||
143 | |142 |00:12:21 ~-~-> 00:12:26 |I'm going to show you the things that I'm pantomiming. That means I'm going | ||
144 | |143 |00:12:26 ~-~-> 00:12:32 |through the pretending aspect of a new trader using ICT concepts. So going | ||
145 | |144 |00:12:32 ~-~-> 00:12:39 |through this with the approach of this is what I liked in 2024 content, and I'm | ||
146 | |145 |00:12:39 ~-~-> 00:12:43 |going to apply this as the things I observed in my back testing that | ||
147 | |146 |00:12:43 ~-~-> 00:12:47 |resonated with me. It does not mean that these are the things that you should | ||
148 | |147 |00:12:47 ~-~-> 00:12:52 |adhere to or subscribe to. This is why I'm inviting you to go through the 2024 | ||
149 | |148 |00:12:53 ~-~-> 00:13:02 |content in your own time, at your own pace, so that way, you can subscribe to | ||
150 | |149 |00:13:02 ~-~-> 00:13:06 |the things that mean much more to you, the things that I'm going to adopt here. | ||
151 | |150 |00:13:06 ~-~-> 00:13:10 |It's not limited to this. You could add more to it. You can reduce it or replace | ||
152 | |151 |00:13:10 ~-~-> 00:13:15 |some of the things. But the things I'm focusing on is not the only smart money | ||
153 | |152 |00:13:15 ~-~-> 00:13:20 |concept, winning profile. That's not the only model that is going to yield | ||
154 | |153 |00:13:20 ~-~-> 00:13:24 |profitability. That's not the only thing that I can do as a trader. I can employ | ||
155 | |154 |00:13:24 ~-~-> 00:13:28 |everything I've ever taught and things I'm never going to teach you. But for | ||
156 | |155 |00:13:28 ~-~-> 00:13:32 |the sake of stripping it down to the brass tacks of this is you should be | ||
157 | |156 |00:13:32 ~-~-> 00:13:37 |looking for as a simplistic approach to building a model that you can carve out | ||
158 | |157 |00:13:37 ~-~-> 00:13:41 |and trade with the confidence that you don't have to have anything else. You | ||
159 | |158 |00:13:41 ~-~-> 00:13:44 |don't have to subscribe to a signal service, you don't have to buy | ||
160 | |159 |00:13:44 ~-~-> 00:13:47 |somebody's mentorship. You don't have to make payments to get into a discord | ||
161 | |160 |00:13:47 ~-~-> 00:13:52 |room. You don't have to do any of those things, all those things that everyone | ||
162 | |161 |00:13:52 ~-~-> 00:13:55 |else is trying to rush to, try to make money and not understand fully what it | ||
163 | |162 |00:13:55 ~-~-> 00:13:58 |is they're doing because they're blindly following someone else. I don't want you | ||
164 | |163 |00:13:58 ~-~-> 00:14:04 |blindly following me, but I am going to share an approach on how you can build a | ||
165 | |164 |00:14:04 ~-~-> 00:14:10 |smart money concept model using the 2024 content and then use a real account | ||
166 | |165 |00:14:10 ~-~-> 00:14:15 |billion central tenant number three is understanding key pools of liquidity. | ||
167 | |166 |00:14:15 ~-~-> 00:14:22 |Okay, there it's a misnomer that you know, obviously common sense tells you | ||
168 | |167 |00:14:22 ~-~-> 00:14:25 |there's a sell stop and there's a buy stop, so therefore the market should do | ||
169 | |168 |00:14:25 ~-~-> 00:14:29 |this and do that, but understanding these key pools of liquidity and how | ||
170 | |169 |00:14:29 ~-~-> 00:14:35 |they're going to be engaged by price, that means why it should draw there. I'm | ||
171 | |170 |00:14:35 ~-~-> 00:14:41 |going to give you some details that have never been taught and why I observed | ||
172 | |171 |00:14:41 ~-~-> 00:14:47 |these things hypothetically in back testing, tape reading, demo trading, and | ||
173 | |172 |00:14:47 ~-~-> 00:14:51 |then finally transitioning. So it's that part of that pantomime I'm showing you | ||
174 | |173 |00:14:51 ~-~-> 00:14:54 |some of the things that I have had emails from students all around the | ||
175 | |174 |00:14:54 ~-~-> 00:14:59 |world give me feedback about the things that they adopted, and in those same | ||
176 | |175 |00:14:59 ~-~-> 00:15:03 |emails. They would say they were not interested in SMT divergence, they would | ||
177 | |176 |00:15:03 ~-~-> 00:15:07 |say, I'm not interested in order blocks, or I'm not interested in fair value | ||
178 | |177 |00:15:07 ~-~-> 00:15:11 |gaps, but I am interested in order blocks. Everybody has their own, I | ||
179 | |178 |00:15:11 ~-~-> 00:15:17 |guess, adoption of the things that made sense to them in what I taught. So there | ||
180 | |179 |00:15:17 ~-~-> 00:15:22 |isn't just one way of doing it, but I'm going to focus on the key pools of | ||
181 | |180 |00:15:22 ~-~-> 00:15:27 |liquidity while building this model out. Central tenant number four is | ||
182 | |181 |00:15:27 ~-~-> 00:15:32 |identifying inefficiencies in price. That means which ones really matter to | ||
183 | |182 |00:15:32 ~-~-> 00:15:37 |me in this model. So that way, it kind of helps you filter out the ones that | ||
184 | |183 |00:15:37 ~-~-> 00:15:40 |are going to be problematic for just the average person, because everyone thinks | ||
185 | |184 |00:15:40 ~-~-> 00:15:45 |that, you know, inefficiencies have always been traded by everybody in the | ||
186 | |185 |00:15:45 ~-~-> 00:15:51 |marketplace. And that's not true. It's actually a relatively new thing and an | ||
187 | |186 |00:15:51 ~-~-> 00:15:55 |observation and price action. Because if you look at the oldest texts, I'm | ||
188 | |187 |00:15:55 ~-~-> 00:16:03 |talking things that are 1980 1970s books about trading, you don't see any measure | ||
189 | |188 |00:16:03 ~-~-> 00:16:10 |of attention placed on inefficiencies in price. And you don't really see it in | ||
190 | |189 |00:16:10 ~-~-> 00:16:18 |even the white golf, the Gan the old heads of technical analysis and number | ||
191 | |190 |00:16:18 ~-~-> 00:16:22 |five, finally, is utilizing simple points of entry and low hanging fruit, | ||
192 | |191 |00:16:22 ~-~-> 00:16:28 |price objectives for targets, and then simply wash, rinse, repeat over and over | ||
193 | |192 |00:16:28 ~-~-> 00:16:32 |again, doing the same thing. So with those five central tenants now placed in | ||
194 | |193 |00:16:32 ~-~-> 00:16:36 |your hands, and the central focus of this discussion, I kind of like want to | ||
195 | |194 |00:16:36 ~-~-> 00:16:42 |flesh that out and show you what that looks like over what took place today, | ||
196 | |195 |00:16:42 ~-~-> 00:16:48 |and kind of like give you a small little sampling of what it is and how the model | ||
197 | |196 |00:16:48 ~-~-> 00:16:53 |that I'll be fleshing out over the next 19 videos. They all won't be this long, | ||
198 | |197 |00:16:54 ~-~-> 00:16:59 |but I have to have the luxury of having a little bit of introduction. So that | ||
199 | |198 |00:16:59 ~-~-> 00:17:03 |way, it kind of like builds the premise of what it is that we're doing. It | ||
200 | |199 |00:17:03 ~-~-> 00:17:07 |frames the whole lecture series about what it is I'm focusing on. So that way, | ||
201 | |200 |00:17:07 ~-~-> 00:17:13 |you know what it is I'm doing. The model that I'm teaching works in forex. The | ||
202 | |201 |00:17:13 ~-~-> 00:17:16 |model I'm teaching works in currency futures. It works in just about | ||
203 | |202 |00:17:16 ~-~-> 00:17:21 |everything you can trade, but I can't co sign crypto, okay? So just know that I'm | ||
204 | |203 |00:17:21 ~-~-> 00:17:24 |not, I'm not trying to sell the idea that you should apply it to that asset | ||
205 | |204 |00:17:24 ~-~-> 00:17:30 |class, but everything else commodities, it all works there too. Okay, but what | ||
206 | |205 |00:17:30 ~-~-> 00:17:35 |we're looking at here is the micro E Mini NASDAQ 100 index futures, or said | ||
207 | |206 |00:17:35 ~-~-> 00:17:40 |simply, it's the NASDAQ micro contract, meaning that every fluctuation in price | ||
208 | |207 |00:17:40 ~-~-> 00:17:46 |is worth $2 make it or break it coming out of your account. So what I'm showing | ||
209 | |208 |00:17:46 ~-~-> 00:17:51 |you here is the regular trading hours. And I taught this in the 2024 content, | ||
210 | |209 |00:17:51 ~-~-> 00:17:57 |and it was mentioned also in my paid mentorship, and actually mentioned it in | ||
211 | |210 |00:17:57 ~-~-> 00:18:04 |lectures a long time ago on Internet Relay Chat in 1996 when I actually | ||
212 | |211 |00:18:04 ~-~-> 00:18:09 |started teaching, when I really wasn't prepared to be teaching. But I taught a | ||
213 | |212 |00:18:09 ~-~-> 00:18:12 |lot of things about regular trading hours, which was Globex hours and such. | ||
214 | |213 |00:18:12 ~-~-> 00:18:15 |But we're looking at regular trading hours | ||
215 | |214 |00:18:16 ~-~-> 00:18:21 |the difference between where we settled previous day and then where we open up | ||
216 | |215 |00:18:21 ~-~-> 00:18:26 |at 930 that's what this is highlighting here. The benefit of having that | ||
217 | |216 |00:18:26 ~-~-> 00:18:33 |information, it gives us the opening range gap. Now I'm going to have very | ||
218 | |217 |00:18:33 ~-~-> 00:18:37 |specific lectures on how I'm going to use the opening range gap, what sets up | ||
219 | |218 |00:18:37 ~-~-> 00:18:40 |conditions that where it makes me interested in a trade, whether bullish | ||
220 | |219 |00:18:40 ~-~-> 00:18:43 |or bearish. That's not going to be covered in this video. This video, but | ||
221 | |220 |00:18:43 ~-~-> 00:18:48 |it will be its own individual video. I'm going to talk about the opening range, | ||
222 | |221 |00:18:48 ~-~-> 00:18:51 |which is the first 30 minutes of trading. I don't care what anybody else | ||
223 | |222 |00:18:51 ~-~-> 00:18:55 |says, that's the only range the algorithm worries about. Okay, then I'm | ||
224 | |223 |00:18:55 ~-~-> 00:19:02 |going to teach you the first 60 minutes dealing range, totally different, and | ||
225 | |224 |00:19:02 ~-~-> 00:19:06 |how to use that, and what that means, and how it can help you understand the | ||
226 | |225 |00:19:06 ~-~-> 00:19:11 |power three, or the characteristics of a daily range, how I'm going to employ | ||
227 | |226 |00:19:11 ~-~-> 00:19:14 |that consistently, going back in, looking for the same things all the | ||
228 | |227 |00:19:14 ~-~-> 00:19:18 |time. If those rules are not met, I'm not trading on that, on that basis, then | ||
229 | |228 |00:19:18 ~-~-> 00:19:22 |I have to sit still. That's why we have a model. That's why we have to flesh out | ||
230 | |229 |00:19:22 ~-~-> 00:19:26 |some kind of trading plan that we're going to stick to and adhere to, and | ||
231 | |230 |00:19:26 ~-~-> 00:19:31 |that way, we will have measurable progress if we stick to rules that are | ||
232 | |231 |00:19:31 ~-~-> 00:19:36 |based on sound logic. Then it goes without saying that it's reasonable to | ||
233 | |232 |00:19:36 ~-~-> 00:19:40 |anticipate progress that's profitable. It doesn't mean every trade is going to | ||
234 | |233 |00:19:40 ~-~-> 00:19:44 |be a winning trade. It doesn't mean that it's going to be, you know, a lot more | ||
235 | |234 |00:19:44 ~-~-> 00:19:50 |wins than losing. It just means that the net result should be profitable, and in | ||
236 | |235 |00:19:50 ~-~-> 00:19:54 |your first year, that's what you should be aiming for. It should not be to have | ||
237 | |236 |00:19:54 ~-~-> 00:20:00 |a windfall profitable year, and you'll never hear anyone that's being paid. It | ||
238 | |237 |00:20:00 ~-~-> 00:20:04 |as a mentor or teaching or selling books and courses. They're never going to tell | ||
239 | |238 |00:20:04 ~-~-> 00:20:09 |you that, because they want you sold on the idea that as long as you listen to | ||
240 | |239 |00:20:09 ~-~-> 00:20:12 |what they're saying or what they're teaching and what they're selling, | ||
241 | |240 |00:20:12 ~-~-> 00:20:16 |basically, is that you're going to get rich or make lots of money. And I can't | ||
242 | |241 |00:20:16 ~-~-> 00:20:19 |make that promise for you, and I'm certainly not doing it in here. Okay, so | ||
243 | |242 |00:20:19 ~-~-> 00:20:23 |you're going to see losing trades. You're going to see me lose trades | ||
244 | |243 |00:20:23 ~-~-> 00:20:27 |because I'm going to use rules and I'm going to place myself in situations like | ||
245 | |244 |00:20:27 ~-~-> 00:20:32 |a new student that transitions from paper trading into live trading. You'll | ||
246 | |245 |00:20:32 ~-~-> 00:20:36 |see it. You're going to see it in a broker statement. You're going to see | ||
247 | |246 |00:20:36 ~-~-> 00:20:40 |the ebb and flow of equity rising and falling, and you're going to see the | ||
248 | |247 |00:20:40 ~-~-> 00:20:45 |benefits of using a micro contract initially, because imagine you yourself. | ||
249 | |248 |00:20:45 ~-~-> 00:20:48 |You know yourself, you're probably impatient, you're in a rush to go out | ||
250 | |249 |00:20:48 ~-~-> 00:20:53 |there and start making money. Don't you think that you'd feel a little | ||
251 | |250 |00:20:53 ~-~-> 00:20:57 |unsettled, scared, if the first trade you put on was a losing trade, you'd | ||
252 | |251 |00:20:57 ~-~-> 00:21:01 |have a lot of regrets, right? A lot of remorse, and you would have wished you | ||
253 | |252 |00:21:01 ~-~-> 00:21:06 |would have started on a smaller contract basis instead of doing two or three | ||
254 | |253 |00:21:06 ~-~-> 00:21:12 |minis because your prop firm or your account allowed you to do it. I'm trying | ||
255 | |254 |00:21:12 ~-~-> 00:21:20 |to give you a real, practical approach on how I believe that a student that | ||
256 | |255 |00:21:20 ~-~-> 00:21:24 |makes their decision to do this. I'm not suggesting all of you should do it. A | ||
257 | |256 |00:21:24 ~-~-> 00:21:29 |lot of this should never be done by any of you, because you're not prepared. | ||
258 | |257 |00:21:30 ~-~-> 00:21:34 |Eventually, when you are prepared, and you've proven to yourself by | ||
259 | |258 |00:21:34 ~-~-> 00:21:38 |consistently yielding results following a model, most of you probably don't even | ||
260 | |259 |00:21:38 ~-~-> 00:21:43 |stick to the same model. So I'm going to, I'm going to show you how, by doing | ||
261 | |260 |00:21:43 ~-~-> 00:21:46 |that, it gives you confidence that you don't have to worry about what ICT or | ||
262 | |261 |00:21:46 ~-~-> 00:21:50 |somebody else on the internet is doing, because their results, my results, are | ||
263 | |262 |00:21:50 ~-~-> 00:21:54 |not something that you can benefit from. You can't spend the money and you don't | ||
264 | |263 |00:21:54 ~-~-> 00:21:57 |have to sleep on the losses that we take either. So you have to have that | ||
265 | |264 |00:21:57 ~-~-> 00:22:01 |experience in your own hands. So by having revenue trading hours, it | ||
266 | |265 |00:22:01 ~-~-> 00:22:06 |benefits us by knowing where, if there is a opening range gap, and by knowing | ||
267 | |266 |00:22:06 ~-~-> 00:22:10 |where we settled the previous day, that's the benefit in it. So I want you | ||
268 | |267 |00:22:10 ~-~-> 00:22:20 |to see that for today, we had market trade higher here, and we have this | ||
269 | |268 |00:22:20 ~-~-> 00:22:29 |large gap that has traded since 930 this morning. So that opening price there and | ||
270 | |269 |00:22:29 ~-~-> 00:22:33 |the settlement price there, that difference is the opening range gap. Now | ||
271 | |270 |00:22:34 ~-~-> 00:22:40 |I'm going to show you also by dropping into a one minute chart. We're going to | ||
272 | |271 |00:22:40 ~-~-> 00:22:45 |scrub back here, and you want to do your measurements on the opening range gap | ||
273 | |272 |00:22:45 ~-~-> 00:22:50 |with the one minute chart in regular trading hours. So having the open and | ||
274 | |273 |00:22:50 ~-~-> 00:22:58 |close on this here is the same price, essentially. And this is the beginning | ||
275 | |274 |00:22:58 ~-~-> 00:23:05 |points of making money with Smart Money concepts, you have to have a frame of | ||
276 | |275 |00:23:05 ~-~-> 00:23:10 |reference. Got to know. Where do you start? Well, if you're day trading and | ||
277 | |276 |00:23:10 ~-~-> 00:23:15 |you're trading index futures, this is where you start. Is there a gap? We can | ||
278 | |277 |00:23:15 ~-~-> 00:23:21 |see that the market opens up at 930 we now have what is described by me as the | ||
279 | |278 |00:23:21 ~-~-> 00:23:27 |opening range gap. It's the regular trading hours difference between today's | ||
280 | |279 |00:23:27 ~-~-> 00:23:32 |opening and previous days, regular trading hours close. That's all it's | ||
281 | |280 |00:23:32 ~-~-> 00:23:43 |doing. Now when we do that, if the gap is larger, then, say, 20 handles. You | ||
282 | |281 |00:23:44 ~-~-> 00:23:47 |can start running your fib across it. And I'll let you see my settings, | ||
283 | |282 |00:23:47 ~-~-> 00:23:53 |because I know I get asked that a lot on Toggle this for now, these are the | ||
284 | |283 |00:23:53 ~-~-> 00:23:57 |settings. So this is the lower quadrant, upper quadrant, midway point, consequent | ||
285 | |284 |00:23:57 ~-~-> 00:24:02 |encroachment. And then you can highlight zero and one, which is going to give you | ||
286 | |285 |00:24:02 ~-~-> 00:24:06 |basically the same levels that I've already highlighted here with those | ||
287 | |286 |00:24:06 ~-~-> 00:24:14 |black lines. So it would look like that. Okay, so we have a premium gap opening, | ||
288 | |287 |00:24:15 ~-~-> 00:24:19 |and I'm not interested in trading long on that when it's such a large gap | ||
289 | |288 |00:24:19 ~-~-> 00:24:25 |opening like that. So I'm going to let it trade higher. I want to see where it | ||
290 | |289 |00:24:25 ~-~-> 00:24:28 |could likely trade to Okay, remember, we have to know how price is likely to | ||
291 | |290 |00:24:28 ~-~-> 00:24:35 |deliver and buy time. And we know it's Non Farm Payroll week, so we want to be | ||
292 | |291 |00:24:35 ~-~-> 00:24:40 |trading on Monday. But we have a large gap like this. We have a tendency to do | ||
293 | |292 |00:24:40 ~-~-> 00:24:48 |what keep going in the direction of the gap. But eventually, in the afternoon, | ||
294 | |293 |00:24:49 ~-~-> 00:24:54 |between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock, we could see a change or a shift in market | ||
295 | |294 |00:24:54 ~-~-> 00:24:59 |structure as we enter into that lunch hour, and then we could anticipate a | ||
296 | |295 |00:24:59 ~-~-> 00:25:06 |move back into. To that gap being the separation between previous day | ||
297 | |296 |00:25:06 ~-~-> 00:25:13 |settlement and the opening price. So the upper quadrant, that's a very important | ||
298 | |297 |00:25:13 ~-~-> 00:25:18 |level. I think that that is a high probability draw on liquidity, if the | ||
299 | |298 |00:25:18 ~-~-> 00:25:23 |market eventually can show me that it wants to trade lower. So by knowing | ||
300 | |299 |00:25:23 ~-~-> 00:25:27 |where the market may likely draw to before it can reverse and trade lower, | ||
301 | |300 |00:25:28 ~-~-> 00:25:33 |those are important factors in what it is I'm trying to ascertain in price | ||
302 | |301 |00:25:33 ~-~-> 00:25:37 |action. So I sit on my hands. I'm not interested. I'm not interested in | ||
303 | |302 |00:25:37 ~-~-> 00:25:41 |trading this long, but I'm also not trying to pick the top either. I want to | ||
304 | |303 |00:25:41 ~-~-> 00:25:48 |see how the market can produce a turn lower. I don't need to pick the top in | ||
305 | |304 |00:25:48 ~-~-> 00:25:53 |that. And I want to see the market provided time based delivery. That's a | ||
306 | |305 |00:25:53 ~-~-> 00:25:58 |macro. And I'll talk about macros in this lecture series, and how I'm going | ||
307 | |306 |00:25:58 ~-~-> 00:26:03 |to employ them with this model. It is not again, it's not the panacea. It's | ||
308 | |307 |00:26:03 ~-~-> 00:26:08 |not the be all, end all, with macros. This is how I arrived at a model. Using | ||
309 | |308 |00:26:08 ~-~-> 00:26:11 |them. You can make lots of different models. I could make a model every | ||
310 | |309 |00:26:11 ~-~-> 00:26:15 |single day using the macros for 365 days, and they would never be the same | ||
311 | |310 |00:26:15 ~-~-> 00:26:21 |model. Okay? It's it provides you such a wonderful tapestry of applying this | ||
312 | |311 |00:26:21 ~-~-> 00:26:24 |information on an individual and unique basis, nobody's trading model is going | ||
313 | |312 |00:26:24 ~-~-> 00:26:28 |to be the same. And it doesn't mean that you can't be profitable. All of you can | ||
314 | |313 |00:26:28 ~-~-> 00:26:31 |be profitable with with a different model, using what I've already taught in | ||
315 | |314 |00:26:31 ~-~-> 00:26:36 |Smart Money concepts. So since we have the opening range gap here defined, and | ||
316 | |315 |00:26:36 ~-~-> 00:26:41 |we have all the gradient levels here, obviously moving half gap, which would | ||
317 | |316 |00:26:41 ~-~-> 00:26:46 |be much more significant of a move. I don't require that what's the highest | ||
318 | |317 |00:26:46 ~-~-> 00:26:52 |probability direction that it's likely to trade to go below this low, because | ||
319 | |318 |00:26:52 ~-~-> 00:26:56 |that's the lowest low of the day at the New START of regular trading hours. That | ||
320 | |319 |00:26:56 ~-~-> 00:27:04 |means 930 today, and then the next quadrant is here. So 21,006 72 even to | ||
321 | |320 |00:27:04 ~-~-> 00:27:12 |me, is high probability. It means it's likely to draw to this low and as much | ||
322 | |321 |00:27:12 ~-~-> 00:27:15 |as that level here, and it could trade down to half. But I'm not going to | ||
323 | |322 |00:27:15 ~-~-> 00:27:19 |require that. So what's low hanging fruit objective, eventually trading down | ||
324 | |323 |00:27:19 ~-~-> 00:27:25 |here? What's high probability, draw the upper quadrant using the opening range | ||
325 | |324 |00:27:25 ~-~-> 00:27:29 |gap, and I'll talk more about it in its own individual video. But for here, it's | ||
326 | |325 |00:27:30 ~-~-> 00:27:33 |accomplished a method. So now what we're going to do is we're going to go up to a | ||
327 | |326 |00:27:33 ~-~-> 00:27:43 |60 minute chart, and I want you to look at how we have the data that's shown | ||
328 | |327 |00:27:43 ~-~-> 00:27:49 |here. This is the opening range gap on the 60 minute chart. Again, register | ||
329 | |328 |00:27:49 ~-~-> 00:27:55 |trading hours. If you look at over here, we have this drop from high down to that | ||
330 | |329 |00:27:55 ~-~-> 00:28:01 |low. This is a lot of gaps in here, so I'm going to remove all that mess in | ||
331 | |330 |00:28:01 ~-~-> 00:28:07 |noise and go into electronic trading hours, and we're going to clean up that | ||
332 | |331 |00:28:07 ~-~-> 00:28:12 |range. So now I can go and look at this same thing here, so we have this high | ||
333 | |332 |00:28:14 ~-~-> 00:28:20 |and this low. So this was the old range, okay, or old dealing range, if I note | ||
334 | |333 |00:28:20 ~-~-> 00:28:24 |this, like this | ||
335 | |334 |00:28:30 ~-~-> 00:28:38 |and this low here, when the market broke below this low here there, the market | ||
336 | |335 |00:28:38 ~-~-> 00:28:42 |was bearish. Now, obviously, I know there's going to be some very cynical | ||
337 | |336 |00:28:42 ~-~-> 00:28:47 |people that I'm never going to see the comment from. They're going to say it's | ||
338 | |337 |00:28:47 ~-~-> 00:28:51 |obvious, it's hindsight, but you have to do this stuff, impact testing, studying | ||
339 | |338 |00:28:51 ~-~-> 00:28:55 |it, get the information, see it. Get used to seeing the pattern, get used to | ||
340 | |339 |00:28:55 ~-~-> 00:28:58 |seeing the order flow, and then how the market runs for liquidity. But we can | ||
341 | |340 |00:28:58 ~-~-> 00:29:03 |see how it was bearish here, and the market creates a low, lower low, lower | ||
342 | |341 |00:29:03 ~-~-> 00:29:06 |low, and finally, does, in fact, trade below that low here. So what was resting | ||
343 | |342 |00:29:06 ~-~-> 00:29:12 |below that low? It's sell side. So because we are not demanding that the | ||
344 | |343 |00:29:12 ~-~-> 00:29:17 |market created a low or long term or enemy a term low here to trade back | ||
345 | |344 |00:29:17 ~-~-> 00:29:22 |above this high, we don't need to have that high broken. So all I need to know | ||
346 | |345 |00:29:22 ~-~-> 00:29:28 |is, where is premium, where's discount, relative to now this high and this low. | ||
347 | |346 |00:29:28 ~-~-> 00:29:31 |Why am I referring to those two reference points? Now? Because this | ||
348 | |347 |00:29:31 ~-~-> 00:29:39 |range was attacked and traded outside of by these two lows here, and it's | ||
349 | |348 |00:29:39 ~-~-> 00:29:43 |reasonable see the price, I want to come back up, take out this high. What does | ||
350 | |349 |00:29:43 ~-~-> 00:29:49 |this high form low, I lower low. That takes liquidity. That's a high | ||
351 | |350 |00:29:49 ~-~-> 00:29:54 |probability. ICT, smart money concept breaker. It's a bullish breaker. And you | ||
352 | |351 |00:29:54 ~-~-> 00:29:59 |can see that's occurring right there trades higher and all of these buy side. | ||
353 | |352 |00:30:00 ~-~-> 00:30:05 |It could be pools here, here, here, and then this one here has the added benefit | ||
354 | |353 |00:30:05 ~-~-> 00:30:09 |of what to the left of it an inefficiency in the form of a sell side | ||
355 | |354 |00:30:09 ~-~-> 00:30:13 |imbalance, buy side inefficiency. So we can take this little area here and zoom | ||
356 | |355 |00:30:13 ~-~-> 00:30:21 |in right there. So it's this candle, this candle and this candle. So if we | ||
357 | |356 |00:30:21 ~-~-> 00:30:26 |highlight that this price, | ||
358 | |357 |00:30:31 ~-~-> 00:30:45 |and we'll make it like that, it's that way next a little bit. So we have this | ||
359 | |358 |00:30:45 ~-~-> 00:30:55 |closing price to this opening price, this closing price is slightly higher | ||
360 | |359 |00:30:55 ~-~-> 00:30:58 |than that one. That's why I'm using it, because this is a small, little, tiny | ||
361 | |360 |00:30:58 ~-~-> 00:31:02 |volume of balance. If you look at the closing price, which I don't show here. | ||
362 | |361 |00:31:02 ~-~-> 00:31:04 |Let me add that now apologize. | ||
363 | |362 |00:31:10 ~-~-> 00:31:12 |The closing price here is | ||
364 | |363 |00:31:19 ~-~-> 00:31:30 |21,006 95.75 and the opening price here is 21,006 94.75 so there's a difference | ||
365 | |364 |00:31:30 ~-~-> 00:31:34 |of one handle, but that's enough to create a volume of balance. So that's | ||
366 | |365 |00:31:34 ~-~-> 00:31:39 |why we're using this opening price and not the wick. Okay, so otherwise, if | ||
367 | |366 |00:31:39 ~-~-> 00:31:45 |these two, if this closing price was over lapping where this price opened, or | ||
368 | |367 |00:31:45 ~-~-> 00:31:49 |candlestick opened, there wouldn't be a volume imbalance. So because there is | ||
369 | |368 |00:31:49 ~-~-> 00:31:54 |one, there's a volume imbalance that we have to use this candlesticks opening. | ||
370 | |369 |00:31:55 ~-~-> 00:31:59 |Otherwise, if this was lower than this candlesticks opening, it would be | ||
371 | |370 |00:31:59 ~-~-> 00:32:05 |resting on this candles, wick high. Same thing here. This candlesticks closing | ||
372 | |371 |00:32:05 ~-~-> 00:32:11 |price comes in at 21,008 94 even you see that here, and this candlesticks open is | ||
373 | |372 |00:32:11 ~-~-> 00:32:19 |what, 21,008 93.75 so it's one quarter of a point, okay, or one tick. So | ||
374 | |373 |00:32:19 ~-~-> 00:32:23 |there's a separation. So we have to anchor the self centered balance by | ||
375 | |374 |00:32:23 ~-~-> 00:32:29 |sound efficiencies, labeling or overlay with the Rectangle tool on this | ||
376 | |375 |00:32:29 ~-~-> 00:32:34 |candlestick closing price. If this candlesticks closing price was lower | ||
377 | |376 |00:32:34 ~-~-> 00:32:38 |than this candlesticks open, we would simply use this candlesticks low on the | ||
378 | |377 |00:32:38 ~-~-> 00:32:43 |wick. So that way. Now you understand how I'm going to use that information | ||
379 | |378 |00:32:43 ~-~-> 00:32:47 |when I'm looking at cities and buy side of balance, cell significance. This is | ||
380 | |379 |00:32:48 ~-~-> 00:32:52 |all of my inefficiencies are defined like that. Okay, by doing this, you're | ||
381 | |380 |00:32:52 ~-~-> 00:32:56 |going to get the algorithmic precision of where consequent encroachment is, and | ||
382 | |381 |00:32:56 ~-~-> 00:33:00 |you'll see what I mean in a moment. So I'm going to take this and highlight the | ||
383 | |382 |00:33:00 ~-~-> 00:33:06 |extend to right, and that way, when we draw back out to this perspective, | ||
384 | |383 |00:33:06 ~-~-> 00:33:12 |everything will be clear. So now we have several things in reference. Now we have | ||
385 | |384 |00:33:12 ~-~-> 00:33:17 |this inefficiency here that is inside of a premium. How do I know that? Well, we | ||
386 | |385 |00:33:17 ~-~-> 00:33:23 |have this range low and this range high. So the market has traded between this | ||
387 | |386 |00:33:23 ~-~-> 00:33:31 |range high, down to this low. This level here defines equilibrium, and anything | ||
388 | |387 |00:33:31 ~-~-> 00:33:36 |at that price or higher is a premium. That means it's expensive. It's a target | ||
389 | |388 |00:33:36 ~-~-> 00:33:39 |for when you're bullish, or it's a place at which you want to use the sell short | ||
390 | |389 |00:33:39 ~-~-> 00:33:45 |at at this price or lower, it's discount. That means it's a target for | ||
391 | |390 |00:33:45 ~-~-> 00:33:50 |anything that's short or it's a place to go long when you want to be bullish. | ||
392 | |391 |00:33:50 ~-~-> 00:33:55 |Well, since the market has worked off a bullish breaker here, it trades up. I'm | ||
393 | |392 |00:33:55 ~-~-> 00:33:59 |not interested in going along here. Why? Because we have a large opening range | ||
394 | |393 |00:33:59 ~-~-> 00:34:07 |gap at 930 opening. So I don't want to be in this market doing anything long, | ||
395 | |394 |00:34:07 ~-~-> 00:34:15 |because I want to see how it's going to trade to this inefficiency here. So we | ||
396 | |395 |00:34:15 ~-~-> 00:34:18 |have the upper quadrant, which is right around what optimal trade entry would | ||
397 | |396 |00:34:18 ~-~-> 00:34:22 |be. Remember the old flagship idea that I taught on this YouTube channel. So the | ||
398 | |397 |00:34:22 ~-~-> 00:34:27 |market trades up, hits that and then it starts to roll over. And then what I | ||
399 | |398 |00:34:27 ~-~-> 00:34:32 |want to see is, does the market in fact attack after 930 is opening? Does it | ||
400 | |399 |00:34:32 ~-~-> 00:34:36 |attack the upper quadrant this level here, which is part of the opening range | ||
401 | |400 |00:34:36 ~-~-> 00:34:41 |gap? So now with this frame of reference, we know that the market did, | ||
402 | |401 |00:34:41 ~-~-> 00:34:44 |in fact, trade up into a premium. We completely overlapped this sell side of | ||
403 | |402 |00:34:44 ~-~-> 00:34:48 |balance, buy side and efficiency. So efficient delivery has been given this | ||
404 | |403 |00:34:48 ~-~-> 00:34:53 |one single can down. What's it lacking? Overlapping price delivery that's on the | ||
405 | |404 |00:34:53 ~-~-> 00:34:58 |upside. In other words, buy side is offered to the marketplace. That means a | ||
406 | |405 |00:34:58 ~-~-> 00:35:04 |candle or candle. Plural has overlapped this entire range that's highlighted in | ||
407 | |406 |00:35:04 ~-~-> 00:35:09 |pink. We see that happening here. See that? And then we have a small little | ||
408 | |407 |00:35:09 ~-~-> 00:35:13 |wick outside of it, and then we break lower. And then that it does, in fact, | ||
409 | |408 |00:35:13 ~-~-> 00:35:16 |trade to the upper quadrant. It does not trade to the consequent encroachment, or | ||
410 | |409 |00:35:16 ~-~-> 00:35:20 |middle of the opening range gap, which, again, is defined by these two black | ||
411 | |410 |00:35:20 ~-~-> 00:35:24 |lines here. So now we're going to drop into a one minute chart and flesh this | ||
412 | |411 |00:35:24 ~-~-> 00:35:36 |out. If you look at what we've seen today, initially, at 930 we see the | ||
413 | |412 |00:35:36 ~-~-> 00:35:41 |market. Well, at 916 it dives down and does, in fact, trade to the upper | ||
414 | |413 |00:35:41 ~-~-> 00:35:47 |quadrant of the opening range gap level. But we don't know what that level is the | ||
415 | |414 |00:35:47 ~-~-> 00:35:52 |upper quadrant yet, because we have to have first the opening bell at 930 so | ||
416 | |415 |00:35:52 ~-~-> 00:35:56 |that means, at this candlestick, right here, at 930 you can see that that | ||
417 | |416 |00:35:56 ~-~-> 00:36:00 |opening price is what's it's laying on top of. So that's your opening price at | ||
418 | |417 |00:36:00 ~-~-> 00:36:11 |930 right there. Okay, so this upper quadrant level is not salient at this | ||
419 | |418 |00:36:11 ~-~-> 00:36:15 |moment here. It just so happens that it does, in fact, trade down in there. Look | ||
420 | |419 |00:36:15 ~-~-> 00:36:19 |at the bodies respecting that level as well. So I think that's a little | ||
421 | |420 |00:36:19 ~-~-> 00:36:23 |algorithmic, but it's outside the scope of this discussion. At this point here, | ||
422 | |421 |00:36:23 ~-~-> 00:36:30 |at 930 then we do, actually do have the opening range gap defined by that | ||
423 | |422 |00:36:30 ~-~-> 00:36:35 |opening price down to the previous day's settlement price. And then we have the | ||
424 | |423 |00:36:35 ~-~-> 00:36:39 |lower quadrant consequent encroachment and the upper quadrant level, and then | ||
425 | |424 |00:36:39 ~-~-> 00:36:45 |the opening price at 930 so this is, in in its entirety, the opening range gap. | ||
426 | |425 |00:36:45 ~-~-> 00:36:50 |So as I defined earlier, I'm only interested because he has such a large | ||
427 | |426 |00:36:50 ~-~-> 00:36:54 |opening gap. It's several 100 handles. That means it could potentially keep | ||
428 | |427 |00:36:54 ~-~-> 00:36:59 |trading higher in that direction. So you got to be real careful. It's too big of | ||
429 | |428 |00:36:59 ~-~-> 00:37:06 |a gap. So I'm going to elect to not do anything by going long and chasing the | ||
430 | |429 |00:37:06 ~-~-> 00:37:11 |direction of the gap. And I'm also not looking to sell short initially just to | ||
431 | |430 |00:37:11 ~-~-> 00:37:15 |see it go down to the opening range gap and trade into the opening portion of | ||
432 | |431 |00:37:15 ~-~-> 00:37:21 |it. I have to defer that interest until later on. What constitutes that. That | ||
433 | |432 |00:37:21 ~-~-> 00:37:28 |means we have to wait for it to trade up into that 60 minute imbalance. So it | ||
434 | |433 |00:37:28 ~-~-> 00:37:32 |does, in fact, trade up into it there. Look at the bodies respecting it. This | ||
435 | |434 |00:37:32 ~-~-> 00:37:38 |is a one minute chart, that small little deviation outside of that city. And we | ||
436 | |435 |00:37:38 ~-~-> 00:37:42 |spend some time here at the high end of it, and we start to roll over. You can | ||
437 | |436 |00:37:42 ~-~-> 00:37:47 |see how trading into the lunch hour. We're getting a little bit of a | ||
438 | |437 |00:37:47 ~-~-> 00:37:51 |retracement. Notice the halfway point. This is constant consequence | ||
439 | |438 |00:37:51 ~-~-> 00:37:56 |encroachment of this pink shaded one hour inefficiency. It's in a premium | ||
440 | |439 |00:37:56 ~-~-> 00:38:01 |relative to the large one hour range. And now we're starting to work that | ||
441 | |440 |00:38:01 ~-~-> 00:38:06 |level here. It's that midpoint of this pink shaded area. And they work through | ||
442 | |441 |00:38:06 ~-~-> 00:38:12 |lunch like this. And then at 130 we start looking for the pm session trade. | ||
443 | |442 |00:38:13 ~-~-> 00:38:19 |Now I have the market trading to the low end of that one hour city. That's that | ||
444 | |443 |00:38:19 ~-~-> 00:38:23 |pink shaded area here. So I've already seen it trade down below the midpoint, | ||
445 | |444 |00:38:23 ~-~-> 00:38:27 |and then it traded back up to it and look at the bodies respecting it. So is | ||
446 | |445 |00:38:27 ~-~-> 00:38:31 |it indicating at that time that the market is wanting to explore anything | ||
447 | |446 |00:38:31 ~-~-> 00:38:39 |higher? No. And at 130 We're now entering algorithmically, the pm stress | ||
448 | |447 |00:38:39 ~-~-> 00:38:43 |or the afternoon trading. So what do we have at this point? We have the market | ||
449 | |448 |00:38:43 ~-~-> 00:38:51 |trading up to and completing the full delivery to that 60 minute sell side, | ||
450 | |449 |00:38:51 ~-~-> 00:38:54 |and balance by sudden efficiency. Then we want to watch and see, does the | ||
451 | |450 |00:38:54 ~-~-> 00:38:59 |market does it move lower? It does. Does it breach the midpoint of that | ||
452 | |451 |00:38:59 ~-~-> 00:39:03 |inefficiency? It does. Once it does that, does it show a willingness? These | ||
453 | |452 |00:39:03 ~-~-> 00:39:07 |are all algorithmic signatures. These are, these are indications that the | ||
454 | |453 |00:39:07 ~-~-> 00:39:11 |algorithm that's offering price, it's not the buying and selling pressure that | ||
455 | |454 |00:39:11 ~-~-> 00:39:17 |the algorithm is offering. The signatures proving okay, like flashing a | ||
456 | |455 |00:39:17 ~-~-> 00:39:21 |neon sign, like a billboard sign on a highway, that this thing is going to go | ||
457 | |456 |00:39:21 ~-~-> 00:39:26 |lower. Don't anticipate anything in the upper range of this now, because it's | ||
458 | |457 |00:39:26 ~-~-> 00:39:30 |already been fulfilled by this run here. And look how much time it's spent up | ||
459 | |458 |00:39:30 ~-~-> 00:39:37 |there. So now at 130 the gears have now changed to now looking for the market to | ||
460 | |459 |00:39:37 ~-~-> 00:39:42 |move lower. And now I have a trade stage where I can now engage price action, but | ||
461 | |460 |00:39:42 ~-~-> 00:39:46 |I don't want to just simply go into it willy nilly. That means I want to go in | ||
462 | |461 |00:39:46 ~-~-> 00:39:52 |with something that's algorithmically timed by a macro. I want to target | ||
463 | |462 |00:39:52 ~-~-> 00:39:58 |liquidity. I want to have a very simple entry strategy, and I want to know where | ||
464 | |463 |00:39:58 ~-~-> 00:40:03 |it's likely to draw to. And. And afford myself the opportunity to catch a runner | ||
465 | |464 |00:40:03 ~-~-> 00:40:07 |if it wants to trade down to the midpoint of the gap or consequent | ||
466 | |465 |00:40:07 ~-~-> 00:40:12 |encroachment, which is that blue line here. So I want to frame an idea around | ||
467 | |466 |00:40:12 ~-~-> 00:40:17 |all those things. So let's take a look at that now, right? So here we have the | ||
468 | |467 |00:40:17 ~-~-> 00:40:26 |market trained in on the 250 to 310 macro time we're trading near the low of | ||
469 | |468 |00:40:26 ~-~-> 00:40:32 |that 60 minute city. And here's that upper quadrant level on the opening | ||
470 | |469 |00:40:32 ~-~-> 00:40:35 |range gap. And if I scrunch this up a little bit more, you'll see that the 50% | ||
471 | |470 |00:40:35 ~-~-> 00:40:39 |level of the opening range gap is down here. So that is a wild card. I don't | ||
472 | |471 |00:40:40 ~-~-> 00:40:43 |know. You don't know. No one knows if it's going to trade down there. Down | ||
473 | |472 |00:40:43 ~-~-> 00:40:46 |there, but we do have a high degree of probability that it's likely to draw to | ||
474 | |473 |00:40:46 ~-~-> 00:40:51 |that upper quadrant level. So that's what I'm focusing on in the trade idea. | ||
475 | |474 |00:40:52 ~-~-> 00:40:57 |This candlestick we opened lower here the very next one minute candle, I want | ||
476 | |475 |00:40:57 ~-~-> 00:41:02 |to be short, so when it opens, I want to use that open, and anything that trades | ||
477 | |476 |00:41:02 ~-~-> 00:41:06 |back into this candlesticks, body or wick. So you can look at the low of that | ||
478 | |477 |00:41:06 ~-~-> 00:41:10 |candlestick there. It's at 21,007 10.50 | ||
479 | |478 |00:41:12 ~-~-> 00:41:17 |and by using that as a immediate rebalance, this next candle here we | ||
480 | |479 |00:41:17 ~-~-> 00:41:24 |open, we trade up a little bit the high that candle comes in at 12.50 and I only | ||
481 | |480 |00:41:24 ~-~-> 00:41:32 |had basically 1.25 separation between the two. There was literally no drawdown | ||
482 | |481 |00:41:32 ~-~-> 00:41:37 |at all from the entry, though. It trades up to it hits the immediate rebalance | ||
483 | |482 |00:41:37 ~-~-> 00:41:42 |and then delivers lower. So I have immediate feedback. I'm on one side. I'm | ||
484 | |483 |00:41:42 ~-~-> 00:41:45 |targeting this level down here, but I don't want to just simply take profits | ||
485 | |484 |00:41:45 ~-~-> 00:41:50 |as it hits that level. I want to try to get to that level and lower, because I | ||
486 | |485 |00:41:50 ~-~-> 00:41:55 |might get lucky and see it trade to half the opening range gap. So I want to | ||
487 | |486 |00:41:55 ~-~-> 00:41:58 |trade with this and watch how it delivers and move away from this 60 | ||
488 | |487 |00:41:58 ~-~-> 00:42:02 |minute cities low, which it does aggressively here. We have a little bit | ||
489 | |488 |00:42:02 ~-~-> 00:42:06 |of retracement back and forth in here. And finally, we have a little bit of on | ||
490 | |489 |00:42:06 ~-~-> 00:42:09 |this candlestick. When it was breaking lower, I thought that we were going to | ||
491 | |490 |00:42:09 ~-~-> 00:42:12 |have a pretty good chance of getting to that consequent encroachment of the | ||
492 | |491 |00:42:12 ~-~-> 00:42:19 |opening range gap. So what I did was I rolled the stop to 21,006, 66.50, and | ||
493 | |492 |00:42:19 ~-~-> 00:42:23 |you can see that it does, in fact, hit that it was based on being in the upper | ||
494 | |493 |00:42:23 ~-~-> 00:42:26 |portion of this body. So I felt if it did that, it probably would have rounded | ||
495 | |494 |00:42:26 ~-~-> 00:42:32 |this low out and then moved back up into this area and maybe trade back up into | ||
496 | |495 |00:42:32 ~-~-> 00:42:36 |the 60 minute city. And in fact, that's what you see here. So there's the entry, | ||
497 | |496 |00:42:36 ~-~-> 00:42:41 |I'm sorry, the exit being stopped out. And here's the entry point there, using | ||
498 | |497 |00:42:41 ~-~-> 00:42:46 |the immediate rebalance. Okay, so those are concepts that were taught in 2024 | ||
499 | |498 |00:42:47 ~-~-> 00:42:51 |also they were taught in core content. So it's all throughout this Youtube | ||
500 | |499 |00:42:51 ~-~-> 00:42:59 |channel. No, you don't find that in my goth or game or emails. So if I had to | ||
501 | |500 |00:42:59 ~-~-> 00:43:02 |toss that out, it couldn't go without saying it could you No, I can't. I'm | ||
502 | |501 |00:43:02 ~-~-> 00:43:07 |sorry, but that's just the truth. Okay, so the difference is that there is about | ||
503 | |502 |00:43:08 ~-~-> 00:43:17 |50 handles or so between the entry point here and down there. Now it's done with | ||
504 | |503 |00:43:17 ~-~-> 00:43:22 |one contract. That is that it's done with a micro now, when you first start | ||
505 | |504 |00:43:22 ~-~-> 00:43:26 |trading, you might not look at this and think, wow, that's that's not a lot of | ||
506 | |505 |00:43:26 ~-~-> 00:43:31 |money. But what this does is it gives you the confidence that you can, number | ||
507 | |506 |00:43:31 ~-~-> 00:43:35 |one, see the price action deliver. You have some measure of precision. You | ||
508 | |507 |00:43:35 ~-~-> 00:43:38 |don't need it to be perfect. You don't need to be surgical, but you have | ||
509 | |508 |00:43:38 ~-~-> 00:43:44 |something that is lending well to the discovery of what you've seen on this | ||
510 | |509 |00:43:44 ~-~-> 00:43:47 |YouTube channel, and then put it into practice. And you can make a model out | ||
511 | |510 |00:43:47 ~-~-> 00:43:51 |of it. And then we get into the last trading hour of the day, in regular | ||
512 | |511 |00:43:51 ~-~-> 00:43:55 |trading hours, which is three o'clock, this thing could do what it could start | ||
513 | |512 |00:43:55 ~-~-> 00:44:00 |to draw back up into the range and as exactly what it did. So watching from | ||
514 | |513 |00:44:00 ~-~-> 00:44:03 |that point on here, you can see that it does, in fact, trade higher and moves in | ||
515 | |514 |00:44:03 ~-~-> 00:44:06 |consolidation and eventually trades up into | ||
516 | |515 |00:44:13 ~-~-> 00:44:18 |higher portions of that city and then back down and outside of it once more, | ||
517 | |516 |00:44:18 ~-~-> 00:44:21 |hitting that upper quadrant of the opening range, gap level. One more time, | ||
518 | |517 |00:44:21 ~-~-> 00:44:23 |look at the reaction off that you don't that. You don't think that's | ||
519 | |518 |00:44:23 ~-~-> 00:44:34 |algorithmic. Price comes right back up trades into the settlement at 414, again | ||
520 | |519 |00:44:34 ~-~-> 00:44:42 |in an upper portion, right here, almost back to consequent encouragement of that | ||
521 | |520 |00:44:42 ~-~-> 00:44:51 |city on the 60 minute chart. So knowing when to trade the morning session versus | ||
522 | |521 |00:44:51 ~-~-> 00:44:55 |knowing when to trade the pm session, when there's a very, very large gap | ||
523 | |522 |00:44:55 ~-~-> 00:45:00 |opening, I'm not terribly excited about that. I kind of like want to. It and | ||
524 | |523 |00:45:00 ~-~-> 00:45:05 |wait, and then if I know it's likely to draw into that opening range gap. And | ||
525 | |524 |00:45:05 ~-~-> 00:45:09 |there's times where, based on what the market does in the morning session, the | ||
526 | |525 |00:45:09 ~-~-> 00:45:13 |first 60 minutes of trading, which I'll have a video entirely about, that it'll | ||
527 | |526 |00:45:13 ~-~-> 00:45:17 |give me insights about whether I sit on my hands and do nothing, or I wait for a | ||
528 | |527 |00:45:17 ~-~-> 00:45:22 |reversal and then I play after the reversals done, proven itself, and kind | ||
529 | |528 |00:45:22 ~-~-> 00:45:27 |of tips its hand. I don't want to kind of convey the idea that you should be in | ||
530 | |529 |00:45:27 ~-~-> 00:45:31 |here trying to capture the highs and lows and back and forth, up down. That's | ||
531 | |530 |00:45:31 ~-~-> 00:45:36 |what the 33 years of experience Michael can do. In the beginning. You're not | ||
532 | |531 |00:45:36 ~-~-> 00:45:40 |going to have that level of experience. So it's not reasonable or practical for | ||
533 | |532 |00:45:40 ~-~-> 00:45:44 |me to try to inspire you to do that. If I'm teaching you and I'm telling you, | ||
534 | |533 |00:45:44 ~-~-> 00:45:47 |you shouldn't try to do that initially, and then you shouldn't either, because | ||
535 | |534 |00:45:47 ~-~-> 00:45:52 |you're acting on infancy in terms of experience, and it's not meant to be | ||
536 | |535 |00:45:52 ~-~-> 00:45:56 |derogatory or talk down to you. It just means that we're talking practical. And | ||
537 | |536 |00:45:57 ~-~-> 00:46:00 |if we're going to transition from demo trading and back testing and tape | ||
538 | |537 |00:46:00 ~-~-> 00:46:03 |reading and all that to now we're dealing with real risk. And if you | ||
539 | |538 |00:46:03 ~-~-> 00:46:07 |haven't noticed, yes, that's a amp Live account right there. And this is | ||
540 | |539 |00:46:07 ~-~-> 00:46:12 |actually a trade that my son and I worked with, and I walked him through | ||
541 | |540 |00:46:12 ~-~-> 00:46:16 |it, and this is what it looks like he pushed the button, clearly, but it was | ||
542 | |541 |00:46:16 ~-~-> 00:46:19 |based on the logic that I shared with them, so that way you understand the | ||
543 | |542 |00:46:19 ~-~-> 00:46:26 |mechanics of what's here? So again, live account, live execution, real world | ||
544 | |543 |00:46:26 ~-~-> 00:46:30 |trade with real risk. And going back to it, you might ask yourself, you know, | ||
545 | |544 |00:46:31 ~-~-> 00:46:36 |what would a trade like that require in terms of a stop loss? And I don't want | ||
546 | |545 |00:46:37 ~-~-> 00:46:43 |Caleb to have more risk than what 15 handles on this with a micro so what | ||
547 | |546 |00:46:43 ~-~-> 00:46:50 |does that translate in terms of monetary risk? It's only $30 so let me ask you a | ||
548 | |547 |00:46:50 ~-~-> 00:46:58 |question. If you were willing to risk $30 but you could make $90 or more, is | ||
549 | |548 |00:46:58 ~-~-> 00:47:06 |that a reasonable risk to reward three to one, you're risking $1 to make $3 so | ||
550 | |549 |00:47:06 ~-~-> 00:47:12 |you can, you can be wrong a couple times in a series of trades and still be net | ||
551 | |550 |00:47:12 ~-~-> 00:47:17 |profitable on the week, the month or the year. If you can model that eventually | ||
552 | |551 |00:47:17 ~-~-> 00:47:21 |you want to try to do things that allow for a five to one or more, but you're | ||
553 | |552 |00:47:22 ~-~-> 00:47:26 |going to need a little bit more insight and more execution and experience before | ||
554 | |553 |00:47:26 ~-~-> 00:47:30 |you can do those types of things. So I could start with one to one, but I know | ||
555 | |554 |00:47:30 ~-~-> 00:47:33 |that that's going to invite a whole lot more trading ideas for some of you that | ||
556 | |555 |00:47:33 ~-~-> 00:47:37 |are going to try to mimic and parrot what it is I'm doing in this model, and | ||
557 | |556 |00:47:37 ~-~-> 00:47:41 |I'm not trying to inspire you to copy me. So that's why none of the trades are | ||
558 | |557 |00:47:41 ~-~-> 00:47:44 |going to be a live stream type thing, because I don't want you to hurt | ||
559 | |558 |00:47:44 ~-~-> 00:47:50 |yourself. I'm not infallible, you know, I have a very large audience, and it is | ||
560 | |559 |00:47:51 ~-~-> 00:47:56 |basically inviting, you know, more liquidity to pull around a specific | ||
561 | |560 |00:47:56 ~-~-> 00:48:02 |price level. And it's very simple to reprice to that and not show any real | ||
562 | |561 |00:48:02 ~-~-> 00:48:07 |benefit of following that idea, because if everybody's dog piling in on the same | ||
563 | |562 |00:48:07 ~-~-> 00:48:11 |absolute price level, if I'm live streaming, and for the people that don't | ||
564 | |563 |00:48:11 ~-~-> 00:48:14 |know how to trade or don't know how to markets, actually book price, this | ||
565 | |564 |00:48:14 ~-~-> 00:48:18 |doesn't sound normal to them. It sounds like an excuse. But again, you're seeing | ||
566 | |565 |00:48:18 ~-~-> 00:48:22 |broker statements. You're seeing a Live account down here. These are all things | ||
567 | |566 |00:48:22 ~-~-> 00:48:28 |that you can't fake. Okay? It's actually something that I want you to appreciate, | ||
568 | |567 |00:48:28 ~-~-> 00:48:31 |because I don't have to do these things like I could just sail off into the | ||
569 | |568 |00:48:31 ~-~-> 00:48:38 |sunset and be done. I mean, I really can, but to show you, you how the actual | ||
570 | |569 |00:48:38 ~-~-> 00:48:47 |transition should be done from back testing to logging to forward testing | ||
571 | |570 |00:48:47 ~-~-> 00:48:51 |and demo trading, and then finally making the decision to move from those | ||
572 | |571 |00:48:51 ~-~-> 00:48:58 |risk free environments to now allowing and affording yourself actual risk, but | ||
573 | |572 |00:48:58 ~-~-> 00:49:01 |then also managing that risk appropriately so that way you're not | ||
574 | |573 |00:49:01 ~-~-> 00:49:08 |trying to do much more than that that's required. So basically getting in with a | ||
575 | |574 |00:49:09 ~-~-> 00:49:21 |entry point at 711.25 your stock will also be 71. 26.25, so that is a 15 | ||
576 | |575 |00:49:21 ~-~-> 00:49:33 |handle stop. So that is up here, right there. Okay, so you can see it didn't | ||
577 | |576 |00:49:33 ~-~-> 00:49:36 |even have any interest in getting out to that point. Okay. Does that mean every | ||
578 | |577 |00:49:36 ~-~-> 00:49:41 |trade is going to be a 15 handle stop? No, it might be smaller, but because of | ||
579 | |578 |00:49:41 ~-~-> 00:49:49 |the nature of today, we had the election certification today, we had, you know, | ||
580 | |579 |00:49:50 ~-~-> 00:49:53 |all the other things that's going on. So it's just reasonable. It was practical | ||
581 | |580 |00:49:53 ~-~-> 00:49:58 |for me to suggest to Caleb that he uses a 15 handle stop loss here, and then to | ||
582 | |581 |00:49:58 ~-~-> 00:50:02 |target that upper quadrant. The opening range gap, and then see if he could | ||
583 | |582 |00:50:02 ~-~-> 00:50:06 |trade lower. He could have had an exit down here that would have been much more | ||
584 | |583 |00:50:06 ~-~-> 00:50:12 |favorable. But we discussed it, and he agreed that let's just see if it can | ||
585 | |584 |00:50:12 ~-~-> 00:50:15 |trade down into that consequent encroachment. If it stops him out, it | ||
586 | |585 |00:50:15 ~-~-> 00:50:21 |doesn't matter. It's still about 50 handles or so, and that is a really good | ||
587 | |586 |00:50:22 ~-~-> 00:50:28 |return. It's it's a really good return for the risk that was implemented. And | ||
588 | |587 |00:50:28 ~-~-> 00:50:33 |if you can try to target trades where you're risking three to one or four to | ||
589 | |588 |00:50:33 ~-~-> 00:50:37 |one or five to one or higher, you're not going to get as many trades as you could | ||
590 | |589 |00:50:37 ~-~-> 00:50:41 |if you were trading 10 for 10. You can do that all day long when you know | ||
591 | |590 |00:50:41 ~-~-> 00:50:47 |you're doing but again, this lecture series is based on the the new student | ||
592 | |591 |00:50:47 ~-~-> 00:50:53 |transitioning to live funds. How might that occur? And it's not an instruction | ||
593 | |592 |00:50:53 ~-~-> 00:50:57 |manual for you to copy this. I'm not trying. I'm not telling you to do this | ||
594 | |593 |00:50:57 ~-~-> 00:51:01 |and you're going to make money. I'm showing you as a an example, nothing | ||
595 | |594 |00:51:01 ~-~-> 00:51:07 |more, just simply an example of how it could be done and how, using the ideas | ||
596 | |595 |00:51:07 ~-~-> 00:51:12 |that were taught in 24 that that mentorship, I gave you a lot of | ||
597 | |596 |00:51:12 ~-~-> 00:51:18 |wonderful, practical, algorithmic truths to what price does and why it does it. | ||
598 | |597 |00:51:18 ~-~-> 00:51:22 |And again, another example here with a live account. It's not Market Replay, | ||
599 | |598 |00:51:23 ~-~-> 00:51:29 |it's not demo, okay, there's real money at risk here, albeit in this example, | ||
600 | |599 |00:51:29 ~-~-> 00:51:33 |it's not much money at risk, but it's still money that, you know, if Caleb | ||
601 | |600 |00:51:33 ~-~-> 00:51:36 |would have lost, he would have felt it, you know, he would have said, you know, | ||
602 | |601 |00:51:36 ~-~-> 00:51:41 |it's not fun. But when you have wins that are measurable based on the logic | ||
603 | |602 |00:51:41 ~-~-> 00:51:47 |that sound it repeats more than it doesn't. That means there is an edge | ||
604 | |603 |00:51:47 ~-~-> 00:51:52 |there, and it's based on time, based delivery and price. That's not white | ||
605 | |604 |00:51:52 ~-~-> 00:51:57 |cough, that is not Gan that is not anything else. It's simply what the | ||
606 | |605 |00:51:57 ~-~-> 00:52:03 |market simply does because it's scripted and by waiting for these signatures to | ||
607 | |606 |00:52:03 ~-~-> 00:52:09 |manifest itself in price action, we can trust that the edge is now shifted, | ||
608 | |607 |00:52:09 ~-~-> 00:52:14 |potentially not guaranteed, in our favor. And if we follow rule based ideas | ||
609 | |608 |00:52:14 ~-~-> 00:52:22 |and we manage risk impeccably, we stand a good chance, not an absolute panacea | ||
610 | |609 |00:52:22 ~-~-> 00:52:27 |be all in though profitability, it just means that we have a good chance that if | ||
611 | |610 |00:52:27 ~-~-> 00:52:31 |we manage it appropriately, we can potentially yield a positive or | ||
612 | |611 |00:52:31 ~-~-> 00:52:36 |profitable outcome. But because we're not risking a whole lot, we can weather | ||
613 | |612 |00:52:36 ~-~-> 00:52:42 |the storm of a loss, a series of losing trades, and work our way out of that. | ||
614 | |613 |00:52:42 ~-~-> 00:52:47 |And hopefully you'll see examples of that with real broker accounts and | ||
615 | |614 |00:52:47 ~-~-> 00:52:51 |statements and things like that. So hopefully you found this one insightful. | ||
616 | |615 |00:52:51 ~-~-> 00:52:54 |It was inspiring to you, and I hope you stick with this lecture series. It's | ||
617 | |616 |00:52:54 ~-~-> 00:52:59 |again, 19 more lectures this month. They'll be complete by the last Friday | ||
618 | |617 |00:52:59 ~-~-> 00:53:04 |of January and only delivered on Monday through Friday. On the weekends, there's | ||
619 | |618 |00:53:04 ~-~-> 00:53:07 |no lectures, there's no videos, okay, and so I'll talk to you tomorrow evening | ||
620 | |619 |00:53:07 ~-~-> 00:53:09 |at 8pm Eastern time. Be safe. You. |