ICT YT - 2024-04-18 - Lecture On ICT Order Blocks and Tape Reading April 18 2024
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-04-20 09:19
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Outline
02:17 - Delayed arrival and shortened presentation.
- ICT delays arrival, promises short economic news segment.
03:26 - Employment data and market analysis with technical analysis and tape reading.
- ICT discusses employment data release and its potential impact on the market.
- ICT highlights a low on the daily chart from February 21, 2024, as a notable level.
06:37 - Market analysis and trading strategies using weekly and daily charts.
- ICT teaches to focus on weekly and daily charts for directional bias, reducing losing trades.
- ICT identifies opportunities to run out street money by attacking prevalent market patterns on all timeframes.
- ICT teaches that market makers take stops to knock out short traders and enter long positions.
- Liquidity is the lifeblood of the market, and it's always present above old highs or highs.
- ICT expects a bearish bias and looks for price to decline in the spring.
- ICT analyzes employment data and identifies potential trading opportunities.
14:15 - Using different time frames for trading during high impact news driver days.
- Focus on high impact news drivers during news release, then drop to lower timeframes for inefficiencies.
- ICT explains why using a 32nd chart during high impact news drivers can be disadvantageous.
18:05 - Trading challenges and inefficiencies in high-impact news driver days.
- The speaker argues that brokers limit liquidity during high-impact news driver days, making it difficult for traders to enter and exit trades.
- The speaker suggests that traders should focus on five-minute charts during these days, as the volume imbalance can lead to staying open for longer periods.
20:50 - Trade psychology and technical analysis.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of stop loss placement and risk management in trading.
- The speaker has 32 years of experience in the markets and shares their insights on trade psychology.
- The speaker believes that most books on trade psychology are "dogshit" and lack practical advice.
- ICT: High impact news driver days, acceptable coloring outside lines (0:24:35)
- Vega: Premium array, discussed as a fair price gap (0:24:35)
27:28 - Identifying and trading on high impact news events.
- ICT explains how he determines a "dealing range" in trading, emphasizing the importance of a directional bias.
- ICT explains why Monday is a critical day for traders due to high news impact drivers.
31:18 - Trading high-impact news events with a focus on ICT (Intraday Candle Time) analysis.
- ICT analyzes news releases, waiting for price action to confirm or reject them.
- ICT warns against trying to manipulate the market with precise predictions.
34:54 - Trading strategies using Fibonacci retracements.
- ICT thanks Mike for gift card, shares thoughts on crab cakes and market analysis.
- ICT discusses market setup, bias, and trade entry strategies in live session.
- ICT sets optimal trade entry levels at 62% and 70.5% retracement levels.
- ICT prefers to enter trades at 70.5% retracement level, but will consider 62% if necessary.
41:06 - Importance of analyzing weekly and daily charts for successful trading.
- Focus on weekly/daily chart analysis, not lower timeframes.
- ICT tests students' resolve by providing conflicting views, checking if they'll stick with their analysis.
44:46 - Trading strategies and mindset for consistent profits.
- ICT tests students' resolve by encouraging them to be unwavering in their trading decisions.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of managing expectations and being flexible in trading.
48:21 - Using chart analysis to identify trading opportunities.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding dealing ranges and their relationship to liquidity and market direction.
- The speaker uses a daily chart to identify potential targets and derive a directional bias, citing the importance of breaking key lows for confirmation.
- Ict indicates market will go lower on a protracted manner, not predicting a crash.
- Algorithm refers back to lower quadrant as support, indicating market will trade lower.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding market mechanics and using them to make informed trading decisions.
- The speaker encourages traders to question their assumptions and use other people's opinions appropriately, rather than relying solely on indicators.
56:12 - Identifying market levels and inefficiencies using ICT.
- ICT warns against trading above a broken high, instead looking for premium fair value gaps to get short.
- ICT argues that most traders focus on wrong levels of support and resistance, leading to inefficient markets.
59:27 - Identifying bullish inefficiencies in candlestick patterns for potential long entries.
- ICT identifies a specific inefficiency in the market, which he calls "side delivery."
- He explains how to use this inefficiency to identify potential long entries, emphasizing the importance of looking for up-close candles and fair value gaps.
01:02:41 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of having a long-term perspective and setting realistic goals for trading.
- The speaker encourages traders to stretch their boundaries and be more flexible in their trading, aiming for potential gains of 100 handles or more.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of due diligence in trading, citing the need for a process and following general rules.
- The speaker encourages listeners to question their methods and seek evidence of success from others in the industry.
- ICT explains the importance of identifying the low and high points in a trading range, and how to use this information to make informed trading decisions.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of patience and discipline in trading, and warns against over-leveraging or getting emotional about trades.
01:10:02 - Technical analysis and market expectations.
- ICT discusses bias in trading, emphasizing the importance of long-term analysis.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of studying and understanding market dynamics to make informed trading decisions.
01:13:39 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- ICT warns of retail logic and double violence in trading.
- ICT teaches that taking trades without proper analysis can lead to a "sweet tooth" for traders, causing them to make impulsive decisions.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of listening to analysis and taking trades based on found reasons, rather than relying on emotions or social media validation.
01:17:16 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- ICT discusses trading strategies and frustrations with lack of progress.
- ICT teaches traders to analyze high-impact news drivers to make informed trading decisions.
- ICT uses medium-impact news drivers to manipulate market expectations and make profits.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of waiting 15 minutes before analyzing lower timeframe charts for high impact news drivers.
- ICT provides a specific example of a premium array on a five-minute chart to illustrate how to frame a bearish or bullish market inside a deal range.
01:23:48 - Technical analysis and market predictions using TradingView charts.
- ICT discusses the importance of fair value in trading and how it can create a Judas swing against the trend.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of using TradingView for chart analysis, despite offers from other platforms.
- ICT provided a macro perspective on the market, indicating a potential drop in prices by April 8.
- ICT discussed the use of high impact news drivers and signature analysis to predict market movements.
01:27:47 - Trading skills, market inefficiencies, and personal growth.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of recognizing and acting on market inefficiencies, citing personal experience and the potential for life-changing events.
- The speaker encourages the listener to take action and develop the necessary skills to outpace inflation and achieve financial stability.
01:30:57 - Trading inefficiencies using chart analysis.
- ICT teaches a specific trading process using price action and volume imbalances.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of writing down steps and paying attention in live trading.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding the concept of "gaps" in technical analysis, highlighting their potential for profitability in trading.
- The speaker provides examples of how to identify and trade on gaps, including the use of daily charts and the importance of staying open to see the price action unfold.
- ICT taught students how to define a range and trade based on it.
- ICT emphasized the importance of having a clear understanding of the material and being confident in one's abilities.
01:38:47 - Managing expectations and controlling impulses in trading.
- Trader warns against trading breakouts, emphasizes importance of Judas swings.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of managing expectations in trading.
01:42:25 - Technical analysis and price action in the financial market.
- ICT identifies a bearish breaker setup in the market.
- The speaker analyzes price action on different timeframes to identify potential issues.
01:46:12 - Trading and order blocks in the stock market.
- The speaker discusses time distortion in the market and how it affects trading decisions.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of sticking to the process and journaling trading experiences.
- Trader identifies potential trading opportunity in a gap between two close candles.
- The speaker discusses the importance of midpoints and mean thresholds in trading, indicating that these points can indicate the strength of a move.
- The speaker emphasizes the difference between order blocks and stock hunts, with order blocks requiring a stop loss outside the parameters of the block.
01:53:17 - Trading volume imbalances and their impact on price movements.
- ICT discusses volume imbalances and their impact on price movements.
- ICT explains volume imbalances as difference between candle bodies, highlighting separation as key indicator.
01:57:11 - Using volume imbalances for trading.
- The speaker uses a volume imbalance to identify potential entry points for a trade.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of defining risk and using a stop loss in conjunction with the volume imbalance.
- The speaker discussed the importance of volume imbalances in trading and how they can influence price movements.
- The speaker provided a clinic on how to identify and manage volume imbalances in real-time trading.
02:01:41 - Using ICT orders in a news-driven market.
- ICT explains why a trade setup worked as expected, despite criticism from "little pissy lancets" in YouTube videos.
- ICT: Range for bearish order block is high-low candles, graded.
- Don't use low ICT candle due to timeframe and news impact.
- ICT explains the concept of an "order block" in trading, highlighting its importance in identifying optimal entry points.
- ICT demonstrates how to identify an order block by analyzing the low and high ends of a range, along with the midpoint and upper quadrant.
02:09:25 - Technical analysis and trading strategies using volume imbalances and signatures.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of using multiple indicators and tools to confirm trading decisions, rather than relying on any one single factor.
- The speaker highlights the significance of identifying and studying volume imbalances in the market, as they often lead to profitable trading opportunities.
02:12:19 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of bias in trading and using the fair value gap as an entry point.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of starting small in trading to manage risk and avoid mental anguish.
02:15:57 - Trading strategies using order blocks and fair value gaps.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of rules and boundaries in trading.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of defining the range of consecutive candlesticks to identify potential trading setups.
- Identify ideal entry points in dealing range by waiting for a down closed candle in upper portion.
02:22:10 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- Understanding PDRA matrices and their role in trading decisions.
- ICT emphasizes importance of understanding support and resistance levels.
02:25:50 - Trading and market analysis.
- ICT discusses potential long-term trend continuation or reversal based on recent price action.
- Trader seeks clarity on market direction, sets parameters for price action based on specific expectations.
- Trader warns against engaging in trading without a clear understanding of market dynamics, emphasizing the importance of a solid mindset.
- ICT explains market setup and potential turning points, emphasizing the importance of clear market signals.
- ICT highlights the importance of framing the market and taking clear, black-and-white signals, rather than trading in ambiguous market environments.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:02:17 --> 00:02:20 | ICT: It's a bit of a delay here, isn't it? Good grief? |
| 2 | 00:02:51 --> 00:03:06 | Well, welcome folks, I was delayed in arrival. But I got here before the economic news driver comes out here in about eight and a half minutes or so. So |
| 3 | 00:03:06 --> 00:03:13 | I'm not promising a very long one today. And usually when I do that, it's usually like a inside joke. We're not gonna be here longer, it's gonna be short, |
| 4 | 00:03:13 --> 00:03:32 | when I got a four hour marathon going today, they probably will be around an hour or so maybe a little bit over an hour. So discussion today over live data |
| 5 | 00:03:32 --> 00:03:42 | before I get into it, I kind of like want to give you an idea where I think we're probably going to try to reach for, and you probably see my mug down here |
| 6 | 00:03:42 --> 00:03:54 | in the right hand side. And it was covering up some price action. So I'm going to try to make sure I don't hide the pertinent details. So I'm going to put the |
| 7 | 00:03:54 --> 00:04:10 | five minute chart over here. No, I'll just as we go along in the middle. I think what I'll do is I'll leave the middle as a 32nd chart. And over here, we use |
| 8 | 00:04:10 --> 00:04:21 | this as a woman chart. Now it's a little wonky. It's not usually how I have things laid out because I have the live stream set up in the YouTube channel to |
| 9 | 00:04:21 --> 00:04:41 | put my watermark with my mug over there. On Face. Momo mug shot here. Today, we have employment data coming out at 830. So that'll probably be a worthy new |
| 10 | 00:04:41 --> 00:04:59 | driver to send us reaching for a different pool of liquidity. And I liked the idea of it wanting to explore the February 21. I'm going by memory so give me a |
| 11 | 00:04:59 --> 00:05:06 | second I'll show you to do Only chart where it's anchored in why I'm talking about it. But because we're going up against this live news driver, I want to |
| 12 | 00:05:06 --> 00:05:15 | kind of like, do some of the tape reading here first. And before I depart, I'll give you some key points about my IcedTea order block. |
| 13 | 00:05:33 --> 00:05:47 | As a warning, since the day of the eclipse that evening, I'm getting sick. And my wife is still fighting it too. So the video might go pause, like my mouth, |
| 14 | 00:05:47 --> 00:05:58 | pause, but go mute periodically. That's me coughing up a lung. So we want to see market drawl down. Or I want let me rephrase that. Let me rephrase that. We're |
| 15 | 00:05:58 --> 00:06:10 | already starting off on the wrong foot. I am interested in seeing it drawl down to this level now here for the NASDAQ. Okay. And let me show you the reasons why |
| 16 | 00:06:10 --> 00:06:24 | I think that that is something that is noteworthy. That's this low right here on the daily chart. And it's February 21 2024, as well. Now, it did not go down |
| 17 | 00:06:24 --> 00:06:34 | there. But I suspect, as we, as he talked about, on the eighth of April, when I did last livestream, I mentioned how we would likely go into our seasonal |
| 18 | 00:06:34 --> 00:06:43 | tendency, and we would start to see lower prices. And I don't know if your chart show it, but it's been lower prices. Now, it was interesting, I found that it |
| 19 | 00:06:43 --> 00:06:58 | was rather interesting, rather, the return all the way back up to take out the initial high impact news driver for last week, which was here. So it's a bit all |
| 20 | 00:06:58 --> 00:07:06 | the way back up above this high here. And that's what I teach, you always go through the core content, go through the mentorship, go through all the lessons, |
| 21 | 00:07:06 --> 00:07:16 | anytime I'm talking about a stop run, if they're gonna run stops, and you have a directional bias, and it should be applied to your weekly or daily chart. That |
| 22 | 00:07:16 --> 00:07:24 | is going to be the strongest directional bias for you to focus on. Don't get caught up in a one minute chart, the sub one minute chart, anything less than an |
| 23 | 00:07:24 --> 00:07:36 | hourly chart for bias, don't do that. If you pick your bias based on the weekly and the daily and live there for your bias, you're gonna get far fewer losing |
| 24 | 00:07:36 --> 00:07:43 | trades. Now, let me rephrase that. So that way, no one takes that context, because you're hearing, I'm never going to lose, he finally gave me the golden |
| 25 | 00:07:43 --> 00:07:52 | ticket. Now, it just means that that's where the the largest degree of probability is going to reside in terms of picking the right direction. Because |
| 26 | 00:07:52 --> 00:08:02 | you have a weekly chart suggesting with the market major all too, which is how I teach. Then you have the daily chart moving in concert with that same direction. |
| 27 | 00:08:03 --> 00:08:12 | And it's going to have its own individual objectives as well. It may not reach that full weekly objective that you aim for. And it may not reach for that full |
| 28 | 00:08:12 --> 00:08:20 | daily objective you're reaching for that means if you're bearish, it might be reaching for our singular swing low, where sell stocks will be residing just |
| 29 | 00:08:20 --> 00:08:30 | beneath, or relative equal lows, like a double bottom where retail likes to see that anyone will be bullish because of that very thing. I've hopefully changed |
| 30 | 00:08:30 --> 00:08:39 | that paradigm in your mindset where we see that as opportunity to run out the street money. So we attack those types of things. And because it's prevalent, |
| 31 | 00:08:40 --> 00:08:48 | it's it's always in the marketplace, they're never gonna hide it from you. That's it can't hide it from you. Okay, it's on every timeframe. And based on |
| 32 | 00:08:48 --> 00:09:00 | what your weekly AND and OR daily bias is. Then that will determine whether you're going to be buying or selling and not getting caught up in the minutiae |
| 33 | 00:09:00 --> 00:09:09 | of intraday price action, seeing big spikes in one direction many times against what you think it's going to be for or against your, your daily or weekly bias. |
| 34 | 00:09:09 --> 00:09:20 | And you think maybe I'm wrong, maybe this stuff doesn't work, and I need to go in and start chasing price. And then when you do you get your 100 parts slapped, |
| 35 | 00:09:20 --> 00:09:28 | and then you regret it you lose money, then you are afraid to take the trade it forms in your favor in your in your bias in your setup. But now because you |
| 36 | 00:09:28 --> 00:09:38 | bruised yourself, you second guess yourself as you should. But you went against your bias. You didn't stick to your model, you didn't stick to your plan, you |
| 37 | 00:09:38 --> 00:09:48 | didn't stick to the underlying direction of the marketplace that's been derived from your analysis on a weekly and daily chart. So I teach and I had talked at |
| 38 | 00:09:48 --> 00:10:01 | nauseam when there's a stop point. They're going to run the stuff before the big moves back when I was on baby pips back in 2009 2010 Those For those periods of |
| 39 | 00:10:01 --> 00:10:12 | time, when I was just introducing some of the things that many of the concepts I ended up teaching, I didn't really want to share publicly. But I got caught up |
| 40 | 00:10:12 --> 00:10:22 | in the fever of people liking what I was teaching, and using it, making money with it. Not that I'm encouraging you to trade with real money. But I taught |
| 41 | 00:10:22 --> 00:10:34 | that if they're going to run the stops, there's only one reason, one reason alone, that causes the market makers to take the market up to a period of any |
| 42 | 00:10:34 --> 00:10:44 | timeframe to take that level of stops, if you're bearish. That's above old highs or above an old high. So if they're going to run by side liquidity, they're |
| 43 | 00:10:44 --> 00:10:53 | doing that for the express purpose of knocking individuals out of their seat, that would be profitable, if they held that short and taking their seat over. |
| 44 | 00:10:54 --> 00:11:02 | And tricking traders that would have a limit order, or I'm sorry, not a low number, but a buy stop, that would put them in a breakout long entry. Either |
| 45 | 00:11:02 --> 00:11:10 | side, I don't care, I don't need to know the ratio of what traders are trying to do, I don't care, I didn't know that the charts are always going to be able to |
| 46 | 00:11:10 --> 00:11:19 | show you this, and it can't hide, it won't ever change. That is not the algorithm, okay, so it's never going to be reprogrammed, it's not gonna be coded |
| 47 | 00:11:19 --> 00:11:28 | differently, they're not going to turn things upside down. It's simply because that's the lifeblood of the market, its liquidity. So if we can arrive at a very |
| 48 | 00:11:28 --> 00:11:40 | bearish bias, and I gave it to you on the eclipse day, in our live stream, we're looking for what seasonal tendencies to take price down into the spring decline. |
| 49 | 00:11:41 --> 00:11:50 | Now, if they come above this high here on the daily chart, look over here on the left hand side, this this chart here, we'll have a way of highlighting my |
| 50 | 00:11:50 --> 00:12:08 | cursor. Here's our employment data. So we ran real quick to take this low out here. Let me put some lipstick on this as I talk. Sorry, I was supposed to mute |
| 51 | 00:12:08 --> 00:12:20 | that, because I'm going to be doing probably a lot. And I apologize if it gets in there in audio, but the this high here on Wednesday, April 10, when they ran |
| 52 | 00:12:20 --> 00:12:29 | that high, there's only one reason for that, because they were going to be running for the sell side, below these lows in here, all these lows here and |
| 53 | 00:12:29 --> 00:12:39 | that low right there. And I told you I was looking for less than 18,000. If you're a student, you know that. It's it's in public record now and can't change |
| 54 | 00:12:39 --> 00:12:50 | it. So the idea of looking for long pro tractions in price, okay, where you're not looking for this little tiny little choppy moves that take place in intraday |
| 55 | 00:12:50 --> 00:12:59 | charts. Like for instance, we're looking at the 32nd shot here, okay, all of this right here, all this back and forth type movement, that immediately gets |
| 56 | 00:12:59 --> 00:13:08 | individuals that are on the sidelines waiting to take a move or trying to be in a trade because they know that these news drivers that come out around 830 tend |
| 57 | 00:13:08 --> 00:13:19 | to create a lot of excitement in the speculators that sit in here and try to gamble. So to remove the opportunity, and go, we're gonna look at this five |
| 58 | 00:13:19 --> 00:13:27 | minute chart real quick. Okay, see that fair value gap, we overshot a little bit, I liked the idea that it went up in there. And I want to see now does it |
| 59 | 00:13:27 --> 00:13:35 | want to start to move lower? I think this was potentially the initial run here, if we're gonna go lower, let's just say it that way. If we're gonna go lower, |
| 60 | 00:13:35 --> 00:13:47 | it's already done enough for me. But if it doesn't go and start breaking lower, these highs here are a little too suspect for me. So they left a little bit of a |
| 61 | 00:13:47 --> 00:13:57 | trap on both sides of the equation here. It can go both directions, and then later at 930. And I'll still be here at 930 with you the opening bell. But I |
| 62 | 00:13:57 --> 00:14:07 | want to see what they do with this information that they just released to the public at 830. And so far, it's kind of lackluster. Okay, it's done enough to go |
| 63 | 00:14:07 --> 00:14:21 | up into a premium relative to the high in the low prior to 830. And then went up into this fair value gap. Because if you look through all this, and this is a |
| 64 | 00:14:21 --> 00:14:30 | five minute chart, that's not to say there isn't other smaller timeframe, fair value gaps, but for the five minute chart, whenever you're using days that your |
| 65 | 00:14:30 --> 00:14:40 | trading high impact news drivers like today, always at least refer to the five minute chart and try not to place so much emphasis on anything less than that. |
| 66 | 00:14:41 --> 00:14:51 | Any other time of the day. Any other time of the day. It's completely acceptable for you to use a lower timeframe than five minutes but five minutes kind of |
| 67 | 00:14:51 --> 00:15:02 | smooths out a lot of the spot Enos that can buy characteristic on a high impact news driver day because it's A lot of individuals that are |
| 68 | 00:15:04 --> 00:15:13 | looking for the things I've taught, but you have to understand the characteristic of that session, or the day you're trading. And you can hurt |
| 69 | 00:15:13 --> 00:15:24 | yourself trying to force your trade entries on a one minute chart or a second chart on a high impact news driver day, because you demand or expect to see |
| 70 | 00:15:24 --> 00:15:34 | something, you know, be a catalyst for your trade being profitable or unprofitable. And the way you offset that, and mitigate the underlying risks |
| 71 | 00:15:34 --> 00:15:46 | with with doing that very thing is just focus on high impact news drivers at the time of the news release at 830, for at least 15 minutes, 1520 minutes, okay, if |
| 72 | 00:15:46 --> 00:15:55 | you really want to be safe, you wait 30 minutes. And then you can start dropping down below five minute charts for looking for inefficiencies, because you're |
| 73 | 00:15:55 --> 00:16:03 | probably not going to pick the right one, on a lower timeframe chart that less than five minutes on a high impact news driver day, because the market can |
| 74 | 00:16:03 --> 00:16:16 | traverse both sides, like we see here on the 32nd chart. So if you're looking at a 32nd chart, that's a nice little fair value gap. And it's also a balanced |
| 75 | 00:16:16 --> 00:16:27 | price range. But listen, it's below what a five minute chart, this timeframe is 30 seconds. So every individual candlestick represented in this chart in the |
| 76 | 00:16:27 --> 00:16:38 | middle measures the highest high and the lowest low of every 32nd interval. So when a high impact news driver day, at the time of the release of the data, you |
| 77 | 00:16:38 --> 00:16:51 | do not want to be using a 32nd chart, because it's going to disrespect all the spiciness and inefficiencies on that timeframe. Why? Because the very nature of |
| 78 | 00:16:51 --> 00:17:04 | the high impact news driver, it's going to reprice to a larger degree of movement higher or lower, seeking stops and limit orders drag into the |
| 79 | 00:17:04 --> 00:17:12 | marketplace or knockout and unseat those individuals. That's what the algorithm does. It's not it's not focusing on these small little inefficiencies here like |
| 80 | 00:17:12 --> 00:17:21 | this. It can and you can look back in history and say, well, here's where it said it didn't do it, but it does, I'm giving you a general rule to to eliminate |
| 81 | 00:17:21 --> 00:17:30 | the majority of the confusion you're going to have, if you try to look at less than five minutes, if you try to look at less than five minutes during the news |
| 82 | 00:17:30 --> 00:17:41 | impact driver, that that spiciness in price that is easy to work with, when you're not using a high impact news driver day or the session that just had that |
| 83 | 00:17:41 --> 00:17:50 | release of data like we have here. In short, basically, at 830. On high impact news drivers, medium impact news drivers, it's kind of like hit or miss if you |
| 84 | 00:17:50 --> 00:18:01 | want to have a general user, same thing there. But if it's going to be a day without a medium or high impact news driver, just because there is an absence of |
| 85 | 00:18:01 --> 00:18:12 | data being released at 830. The algorithm still does these types of things. Anyway, at 830. The news driver just adds rocket fuel, okay? It kind of like |
| 86 | 00:18:12 --> 00:18:25 | boosts the level of volatility, because it's gonna reach for hire, premium erase or it's going to reach for lower discount or race because of the very nature of |
| 87 | 00:18:25 --> 00:18:39 | it. And it's told to you that it's because there's no liquidity. No, there's lots of there's lots of liquidity. But brokers pull the ability for you to |
| 88 | 00:18:39 --> 00:18:49 | transact because their risk goes off the charts. That's what they're doing. Okay. That's why you can't get the best feels right before Non Farm Payroll or |
| 89 | 00:18:49 --> 00:18:55 | as non farm payrolls happening. It's not because nobody wants to buy or sell, believe me, everybody's greedy. They all want to be in they're doing it on that |
| 90 | 00:18:55 --> 00:19:05 | very moment. But the brokers pool access to that. Now one can argue and say but we're arguing semantics now because that this argues the very point it's being |
| 91 | 00:19:05 --> 00:19:12 | made by everyone else saying there's no liquidity, there's lots of liquidity, but there's not a lead, there's not letting you plug into it because that |
| 92 | 00:19:12 --> 00:19:23 | brokerage, every broker has elevated risk, because there's a lot of Mavericks out there that would simply overhand that and just put too much risk behind |
| 93 | 00:19:23 --> 00:19:31 | every little trade you're putting on. Just look at what you do with your funded account challenges and why they're blowing what you're doing their everybody |
| 94 | 00:19:31 --> 00:19:38 | else is doing that with their live account. And that's why you get the statistics that hardly nobody makes any money trading because everybody wants to |
| 95 | 00:19:38 --> 00:19:50 | be the gambler. So anyway, you can tell I've been away from y'all too long. I'm gonna go down different rabbit trails. But long story short, five minute charts, |
| 96 | 00:19:50 --> 00:19:58 | that your timeframe, the lowest timeframe you got to look for in terms of inefficiencies, okay. Only on high impact news driver days at the time of the |
| 97 | 00:19:58 --> 00:20:08 | release 15 minutes minimum up to 30 minutes, then you can drop back down below five minutes, because then the spiciness and what I mean by that snottiness like |
| 98 | 00:20:08 --> 00:20:17 | this right here. There's a volume imbalance. Okay, that can stay open, it doesn't even need to trade back down here. Why? Why could I say that and feel |
| 99 | 00:20:17 --> 00:20:29 | that's a true statement? Well, one, it can still trade down there. But because of the high impact news driver day, these tend to stay open. And if you're very |
| 100 | 00:20:29 --> 00:20:37 | limited in terms of your experience, and you're trying to walk out here, like it's going to be easy for you, just because you bought a binge watching session |
| 101 | 00:20:37 --> 00:20:44 | of eating videos of mine over the weekend or whatnot. And you got all these things buzzing on your head, you think the answers are on these less than one |
| 102 | 00:20:44 --> 00:20:54 | minute charts, and they're not. There, there are new challenges there. And it requires you to have more experience. Now on a day where it's not associated |
| 103 | 00:20:54 --> 00:21:03 | with this high impact news driver that just released a few minutes ago, it's only been nine minutes. These tend to come back and fill in and reprice to and |
| 104 | 00:21:03 --> 00:21:17 | if you're bullish or bearish, they are influential in terms of my analysis, it may, it may be a foothold for another partial entry for a long or short, it may |
| 105 | 00:21:17 --> 00:21:32 | be the entry of a new position, it may be a target for me to take a partial in an existing trade, it may be like a line in the sand, a divider that says I'm no |
| 106 | 00:21:32 --> 00:21:45 | longer interested in holding on to this trade because it went to this pdra era teach three PD arrays if you have a trade on, you have to have not only an ideal |
| 107 | 00:21:45 --> 00:21:56 | stop loss, that that's measurable in terms of risk that you can assume and not be overextended or over leveraged. But it has to have a way where you can have |
| 108 | 00:21:56 --> 00:22:07 | three PD arrays above it if you're bullish or below it. When you're bearish. You're gonna think I mean, I said that roaming. Let me say that again. When |
| 109 | 00:22:07 --> 00:22:19 | you're bullish, your stop loss has to have three PD arrays above it. What that means is it's like, they're like barriers, okay, you'll have a discount array, |
| 110 | 00:22:20 --> 00:22:28 | right above your stop loss and another PD array, that's a discount above that PD array and another one above it. So that's what I taught many times in a Twitter |
| 111 | 00:22:28 --> 00:22:37 | space, I don't have a lesson where you can go my YouTube channel, I taught these things audibly, is all part of psychology, trade psychology, why you're able to |
| 112 | 00:22:37 --> 00:22:44 | hold on to a trade, what constitutes a reason to bail on the trade, when do I take some of the trade off, but still hold it and see if it wants to pan out. |
| 113 | 00:22:45 --> 00:22:54 | That's what there's Twitter spaces work. In my opinion, if you took all that stuff, and you incorporate that into your trading, that's the best trade |
| 114 | 00:22:54 --> 00:23:02 | psychology stuff you're ever gonna get. I have lots of books on trade psychology, for the most part, they're all dogshit. Most of the time, it's |
| 115 | 00:23:02 --> 00:23:07 | written by people that don't even make money came and tell you what the mark is going to do beforehand. And how they're going to tell you how to manage the |
| 116 | 00:23:07 --> 00:23:15 | trade when it can't even consistently in a position where they can manage a winning trade anyway, so they can give you a real good depiction of what it's |
| 117 | 00:23:15 --> 00:23:27 | like to deal with losing didn't give you an idea of what it's like to always most likely fail with the retail stuff. But a consistent diet of winning, I |
| 118 | 00:23:27 --> 00:23:40 | found that most of the writings about it is pretty much useless. Okay. With all due respect to Mark Douglas, he's like the closest thing that you can get to it. |
| 119 | 00:23:40 --> 00:23:50 | But it's still lacking a whole lot of stuff. So I'm no disrespect to him. But there's a lot of things that he could have delved into, and would have spent his |
| 120 | 00:23:50 --> 00:23:59 | space in lettering in a better economical way to talk about other things than the things that he talked about there. Not that not to diminish what he |
| 121 | 00:23:59 --> 00:24:08 | mentioned his book, because it's it's good. But it didn't reach far enough. And I guess, you know, anyone with 30 years experience, you study these markets, and |
| 122 | 00:24:08 --> 00:24:15 | they're all going to have their own opinion about trade psychology and their own war stories and what they learned, and I'm trying to convey what I've learned |
| 123 | 00:24:15 --> 00:24:23 | over the last 32 years, and it's, it's a lot to try to compress real quick. And remember that fairway got rid of here. And when I told you that I'm interested |
| 124 | 00:24:23 --> 00:24:34 | in that when it overshoots it a little bit in here. Can you see that? I mean, let me actually draw on and you get a visual on talking about that's not gonna |
| 125 | 00:24:34 --> 00:24:36 | do it. ICT gonna give |
| 126 | 00:24:42 --> 00:24:52 | you so on high impact news driver days also, you have to allow for a little bit more outside the the lines are coloring outside the lines, okay, it's |
| 127 | 00:24:52 --> 00:25:02 | acceptable, it's permissible. But now because we have already traded to this fair pay gap here. I mean, I'm lining it up. little bit too, you should be able |
| 128 | 00:25:02 --> 00:25:11 | to see it nice. Now, looking back here, there's no inefficiency until we get right there on this candle. Okay, the Kingdom Hall we're hovering over with my |
| 129 | 00:25:11 --> 00:25:21 | cursor here. That's the only inefficiency on that timeframe. That one, okay, this being the five minute chart on the right. Because if you keep going up, |
| 130 | 00:25:21 --> 00:25:34 | there's really nothing in here to speak of in terms of inefficiencies. Now you do have all of these consecutive upclose candles, which makes that a what an ICT |
| 131 | 00:25:34 --> 00:25:46 | bearish order block. It's not a engulfing candle. That's, you know, all these guys out here from these mark, multilevel marketing, scam sessions and societies |
| 132 | 00:25:46 --> 00:25:56 | and communities out there, it tried very hard to rebrand my stuff. And it's all wrong. Okay, but these upclose candles, if you take the body, or the opening |
| 133 | 00:25:56 --> 00:26:04 | price of that lowest one, and draw that out, okay, draw that out to the right, we'll do that here |
| 134 | 00:26:12 --> 00:26:20 | sorry, I was supposed to meet that I'm not going to remember had gotten used to talking. And then going back and going through all my edit points, and taking |
| 135 | 00:26:20 --> 00:26:27 | all that kind of stuff out coughs, my dogs barking, you know, my wife saying, hey, how much longer gonna be all that stuff, usually in every one of the videos |
| 136 | 00:26:27 --> 00:26:33 | that you watch. But because they're pre recorded, it's all edited out. So I don't have the luxury of having to do that when I'm live streaming. So you just |
| 137 | 00:26:33 --> 00:26:51 | got to suck it up buttercup. So this is the wrong color. And yeah, just thicknesses because we're gonna make that in terms of width. But because I |
| 138 | 00:26:51 --> 00:27:01 | believe, and I may be wrong, okay, I can be wrong here. So it's really important that we're casually discussing price or casually talking about my concepts. So |
| 139 | 00:27:01 --> 00:27:10 | that way, you're not under the expectation to perform today. If you are, if you want to trade turn off this live stream, it'll be on our YouTube channel, you |
| 140 | 00:27:10 --> 00:27:19 | can watch it afterwards, I won't be able to edit it. It'll be just like you were watching it live. Okay. But if you want to trade go do that now. Don't let me |
| 141 | 00:27:19 --> 00:27:30 | influence it. But looking at this, we talked about the very fair Vega right there. It's a premium array. What makes it a premium array? Well, the fact that |
| 142 | 00:27:30 --> 00:27:46 | we returned back up into here, what was the range prior to that? What was the dealing range? This high to freemail. With the these levels here? We'll make it |
| 143 | 00:27:46 --> 00:28:00 | black. Okay, so that's the high end the dealing range. And the low the dealing range prior to that return to that fear and get right there. Is that low right |
| 144 | 00:28:00 --> 00:28:10 | here. Okay. See that? So that you're dealing range? So what the algorithm does, it takes that range, how does it determine that range? ICT? This is a really an |
| 145 | 00:28:10 --> 00:28:16 | algorithm? How do you determine what a dealing range is? Well, first of all, you have to determine what your directional bias is. Because if you don't have a |
| 146 | 00:28:16 --> 00:28:24 | directional bias, you don't have a dealing range. Okay, you're just using randomness. Okay? You're determining, oh, here's the old high, here's the old |
| 147 | 00:28:24 --> 00:28:34 | low. And we'll just call it a trading range. Like every book out there does. That's not what I'm doing here. I see this old low over here on the daily chart, |
| 148 | 00:28:34 --> 00:28:45 | right here on the left hand side over here, the far left chart that were there, the February 21. Low. That's my personal interest. I'm accepting the fact that I |
| 149 | 00:28:45 --> 00:28:56 | can be wrong, because this week has already demolished and went way beyond my objectives for the week. In fact, everything I was looking for for this week, it |
| 150 | 00:28:56 --> 00:29:09 | happened just on Monday alone. So it was a very overzealous Monday. And that's characteristic of what when you have high impact news, if you're not taking |
| 151 | 00:29:09 --> 00:29:19 | notes and writing this stuff down, folks, you're really missing this. You're not going to remember it otherwise, but we had CPI and ppi. And those are huge |
| 152 | 00:29:19 --> 00:29:25 | market drivers. And if they're occurring later in the week, Wednesday |
| 153 | 00:29:30 --> 00:29:39 | mid week, if you're expecting a big move, if it doesn't happen by Wednesday, then you anticipate the latter part of the week to be big candles. But because |
| 154 | 00:29:39 --> 00:29:51 | we had CPI and ppi, those are introducing many times what large range candles, lots of volatility, big, big movement. So on the weekend, everybody's looking at |
| 155 | 00:29:51 --> 00:30:01 | their charts. They're looking at old videos of other people expecting certain things to unfold in the marketplace or they're part of signal services and |
| 156 | 00:30:01 --> 00:30:12 | people paying for mentorships. And in their opinions are being shared. So they're chomping at the bit to put their hero's analysis to work. And soon as |
| 157 | 00:30:12 --> 00:30:21 | Monday happens, and starts trading everybody dog pals in the marketplace, why? Because they don't want to be in those big price swings that can hurt you, PPI |
| 158 | 00:30:21 --> 00:30:30 | CPI, that type of thing, like an FOMC type thing. If there's going to be FOMC event in the week, that means usually, the beginning of the week will probably |
| 159 | 00:30:30 --> 00:30:38 | be really nice. And then you can get your nice set up there. And then the uncertainty in the volatility and the carnage that comes because of the highest |
| 160 | 00:30:38 --> 00:30:47 | news impact drivers for the week. Everything is usually wiped clean, they'll usually knock someone out of the marketplace and anyone that's been profitable |
| 161 | 00:30:47 --> 00:30:58 | usually gets unseated. So anyway, the dealing range high here, why is it what makes us a daily range high? Well, we're we're moving from this low all the way |
| 162 | 00:30:58 --> 00:31:07 | up here into this inefficient with a drag this down a little bit sorry. All these inefficiencies here, this one, this one, we're trading up into that, okay, |
| 163 | 00:31:08 --> 00:31:21 | this candle is high. If you look in right here, right underneath the word says NASDAQ Wait, are you looking at that value? The high is 17 724. Even? And what |
| 164 | 00:31:21 --> 00:31:35 | does that say? 17 724 and a half. That's all it takes folks. It has to clear high to do what to engage opposing liquidity. When you have that. If you're |
| 165 | 00:31:35 --> 00:31:45 | bearish, you want to see it does it displace lower displacement is movement, one sided and heavy in this case, because we're bearish, if it was moving higher, it |
| 166 | 00:31:45 --> 00:31:54 | would be steady and consistently moving higher. Well, we're bearish. I've been bearish, my students know there's I told you on the eclipse day that we're going |
| 167 | 00:31:54 --> 00:32:07 | into a season tendency to move lower this bump above that high. Once it starts making lower lows, we're aiming for this to be swept, it does now to get in sync |
| 168 | 00:32:07 --> 00:32:22 | post. Post 830 news release, we go back through that range that high is the highest high the dealing range. That low is the low the dealing range. Why? |
| 169 | 00:32:22 --> 00:32:37 | Because we've taken the buy side here. And we've taken sell side. So it has engaged what both sides of the market short term, what timeframe, the five |
| 170 | 00:32:37 --> 00:32:45 | minute why five minute ICT, as I told you earlier in the video, in this live stream, if you're looking at high impact news driver days, at the time of the |
| 171 | 00:32:45 --> 00:32:52 | release, minimum 15 minutes, you can't be underneath a five minute chart. Otherwise, you're gonna get beat up with a with a spotting this and price |
| 172 | 00:32:52 --> 00:33:04 | action. 30 minutes for good measure. Okay, so for anyone that's got a lot to say this, every one of you, as a student of me should just use wait and wait 30 |
| 173 | 00:33:04 --> 00:33:13 | minutes, I personally like to use 15 minutes, and I create all this stuff. So if I'm telling you, I'm willing to wait 15 minutes after the news release. So in |
| 174 | 00:33:13 --> 00:33:20 | this case, it'd be 845 then I can start looking at now, less than five minute chart. So I can look at a four minute chart, I can look at a three minute chart |
| 175 | 00:33:20 --> 00:33:29 | two minute women in less than one minute. Okay, so it there has to be rules, folks, if you don't have boundaries, and you don't have barriers to to prevent |
| 176 | 00:33:29 --> 00:33:40 | you from forcing something to give you information that it's not likely to be good data. It's not, it's not influential enough for me to trust it on a 32nd |
| 177 | 00:33:40 --> 00:33:54 | chart, because of the very nature of the high impact news driver. It's designed to run wide. Why didn't you probably go to expect it to, to seek liquidity? |
| 178 | 00:33:54 --> 00:34:04 | Okay, and it can many times go beyond where you think it might just reach for a premium or if you're bearish or a discount rate and be in the bullish and then |
| 179 | 00:34:04 --> 00:34:11 | go right to where your stop loss would be? Because you're trying to anchor to a 32nd chart because you're thinking I can do 15 contracts Am I from that account? |
| 180 | 00:34:12 --> 00:34:23 | Because I'm using a 32nd chart and my stats are small? Well, you're you're asking to market, the market to bend to your will in a level of precision that's |
| 181 | 00:34:23 --> 00:34:31 | going to evade you more times than not because of the very underlying characteristics of the time, the session and because of the high impact news |
| 182 | 00:34:31 --> 00:34:39 | Java day. And if you want to arm wrestle that you're welcome to do that. Welcome. Good. Let's do it. Do It and Lose your ass like I did a lot of times as |
| 183 | 00:34:39 --> 00:34:47 | a 20 year old and then come back and regret and say you know what? ICT I'm talking in his email and you said I was going to do this and feel like this and |
| 184 | 00:34:47 --> 00:34:54 | I am not sure to listen to it right? Because I have scores of that every single week. People coming back to me saying I breezed through your content. Thank you |
| 185 | 00:34:54 --> 00:35:04 | so much for it. And Mike by the way, thank you for the the gift card Please don't take this an invitation to send me stuff. But I, I throw away the |
| 186 | 00:35:04 --> 00:35:15 | envelope. Usually I mail back a thank you or whatever. And I didn't see an email address or an online name or something I could just reach out to you that way in |
| 187 | 00:35:15 --> 00:35:22 | the comment section on the YouTube channel. But you know who you are. I have had their crab cakes, I don't think they're the best. I think Ruth's Chris down on |
| 188 | 00:35:22 --> 00:35:34 | Water Street has the best crab cake. But I'm biased, but it was good. Thank you so much. My wife enjoyed it. But um so I know, when you get into a live session |
| 189 | 00:35:34 --> 00:35:42 | with me, I'm all over the place. Like, can't you stay on point I'm on point you got to catch up and keep up. But when we have both sides of the marketplace |
| 190 | 00:35:42 --> 00:35:59 | swept, we have a here there and that load is taken. So what has the market done? First? What is it done? It has bumped the buy side? Does it displace? Yes. Is it |
| 191 | 00:35:59 --> 00:36:10 | able to take out the low? Yes. So what is this? This is many things here. This sets the tone for and this is exactly how I taught my mentorship, the people |
| 192 | 00:36:10 --> 00:36:20 | that paid and you can see the core content lessons where I say it, you're going to discover how all my concepts overlap. And the strongest setups are gonna be |
| 193 | 00:36:20 --> 00:36:34 | the ones that you can see have multiple reasons why it should do one thing and not the other. Meaning this low being taken out. Remember, the bias is bearish? |
| 194 | 00:36:34 --> 00:36:48 | I don't need it to trade down to this daily low. I just need it to be able to move in that direction. I think if my bias is bearish, do I sell short? On a |
| 195 | 00:36:48 --> 00:36:57 | break below that Oh, loader here? No, I'm not retail, Rick. I want to see the market come right back up into the range. Why? What is that doing? Well, let's |
| 196 | 00:36:57 --> 00:37:08 | see. That's model 2022. On this YouTube channel. That's what this setup is here. It's the OG longest running flagship pattern of the YouTube channel. And this is |
| 197 | 00:37:08 --> 00:37:18 | my talk on baby pips. My optimal trade entry. High, Low retrace, you don't believe me? Let's pull the Fed. |
| 198 | 00:37:23 --> 00:37:35 | Here's 50% Is the fair value gap above the 50%. Or at it? Well, here it is, that means it's a premium array. So it fits the criteria for model 2022. It also if |
| 199 | 00:37:35 --> 00:37:42 | we go into the settings, and some of you want to screenshot this, because this is my fib settings, I get so many emails, if you just watch the videos, you're |
| 200 | 00:37:42 --> 00:37:49 | gonna see this, the things that changed down here are usually these types of things, okay, because I'll change it to 20 and 30. Because if I'm, if I'm |
| 201 | 00:37:50 --> 00:38:00 | managing or measuring the range on the weekly chart for TGIF setups, and you can watch a video on my YouTube channel, just do a search on TG, if thank God, it's |
| 202 | 00:38:00 --> 00:38:10 | Friday. That's what it stands for. It's just simply measuring 20 to 30% of that weekly range. And it's a it's an opposing or counter trend. Counter momentum, if |
| 203 | 00:38:10 --> 00:38:22 | you want to call it that setup where if I see my objective for the week traded to sometimes in the afternoon, like one o'clock in the afternoon on Thursday, |
| 204 | 00:38:22 --> 00:38:33 | going into Friday can start this retracement back into the weekly range as much as 20 to 30%. And usually, that's about as far as it'll do. It can do a whole |
| 205 | 00:38:33 --> 00:38:45 | lot more. But usually that's pretty systematic way of approaching how to trade the conclusion of a weekly range objective. And then any little tiny little |
| 206 | 00:38:45 --> 00:38:56 | retracement lower or not to I shouldn't say lower because it's it can be bought or sold. It's not directionally specific. But I teach all that stuff in TGIF so |
| 207 | 00:38:56 --> 00:39:02 | you don't you don't need to hear here again. But these are the settings I usually work with sometimes if I'm measuring a range that's large some of these |
| 208 | 00:39:02 --> 00:39:14 | numbers will change don't think that these are cast in stone but this is the standard deviations are used to measure and when I'm looking at these over here, |
| 209 | 00:39:14 --> 00:39:28 | this is what I also do I change because this is measuring the 62 which is the low threshold on optimal trade entry. And then you have the 70.5 and I just did |
| 210 | 00:39:28 --> 00:39:29 | that wrong |
| 211 | 00:39:36 --> 00:39:36 | sorry |
| 212 | 00:39:47 --> 00:40:00 | Okay, so here's the 62% retracement level. And here's the 70.5 Why 70.5 Because that's the sweet spot. You can use a 79% tradesmen level but like I Total maybe |
| 213 | 00:40:00 --> 00:40:09 | perhaps, if you're demanding that or just below it as your entry, you're gonna miss a whole lot of sweet trades. So you want to know what that 79% retracement |
| 214 | 00:40:09 --> 00:40:14 | level is. Because then you want to look just above that. And let us show you what I mean by this because otherwise we're gonna confusion |
| 215 | 00:40:20 --> 00:40:31 | Okay, that's the 70% trace. So this is this is the optimal trade entry area here. 70.5. That's my high watermark for shorts. Like, if I can squeeze |
| 216 | 00:40:31 --> 00:40:40 | something in at that price level, I'm going to try to do it. But 62% retracement level is about as good as I need it to be. And I'm going to have most of my |
| 217 | 00:40:40 --> 00:40:48 | limit orders if I'm trying to sell short and short that is optimal trade entry. And not bias is there. And it's a lot of things going for it. I could enter |
| 218 | 00:40:48 --> 00:40:56 | right at 60% trace amount, and then I'll layer additional limit orders. They may not fill if the market starts to move in my favorite others close to existing |
| 219 | 00:40:56 --> 00:41:05 | limit orders. But I'm not trying to do a snapshot tracing level entry. I'm not trying to do an 80% retracement, I'm not a harmonic trader, because I think it's |
| 220 | 00:41:05 --> 00:41:12 | utter bullshit. The markets don't care about your, your your rabid bat pattern, none of that stuff is none of that. It's all cartoons that that's a that's a |
| 221 | 00:41:12 --> 00:41:22 | religion, you need not waste any time or money on it stuff. It's garbage, but ranges and understanding the range and the liquidity and why the market should |
| 222 | 00:41:22 --> 00:41:32 | reach to a specific level or in a direction. That's where 99% of your focus should be always even when you know how to trade and you know your model really |
| 223 | 00:41:32 --> 00:41:41 | well. All of your focus and time and analysis should be spent on that weekly daily chart. Why should it behave a certain way on those two timeframes? Keep |
| 224 | 00:41:41 --> 00:41:51 | referring back to it? Is it still showing you things that would warrant you trusting your initial analysis? Is it really trying to still reach for that |
| 225 | 00:41:51 --> 00:41:58 | objective? As you outline the monthly chart? Is it really trying to reach for that objectives that you outlined on your daily chart? And as long as those two |
| 226 | 00:41:58 --> 00:42:07 | things remain true, you should never fear holding on to the trade? Because how otherwise? How do you know? How do you know if you have no experience or limited |
| 227 | 00:42:07 --> 00:42:15 | experience? How do you know that you're going to be right about that, let alone be right about the initial trade idea. And I could go on and on and on for hours |
| 228 | 00:42:15 --> 00:42:29 | and give you a book. rendition audibly about how nobody writes that stuff because they don't know it. But you have to be diligent about journaling, and |
| 229 | 00:42:29 --> 00:42:39 | recording how you feel, and how many times you wrestled with looking at your analysis on these lower timeframes and forgetting completely omitting the |
| 230 | 00:42:45 --> 00:42:55 | reasons why you went into the trade. If you're going to ignore, you want to get in a trade and you're going to be all whipped up into a frenzy. With these lower |
| 231 | 00:42:55 --> 00:43:05 | timeframes. You're going to ignore the core reasons why you took the trade. And if you don't know why you took the trade. And if it's not rooted on sound logic, |
| 232 | 00:43:06 --> 00:43:14 | any little thing you see on a 32nd chart, it's going to change your mind is going to scare you. someone's opinion about something, if you see me taking a |
| 233 | 00:43:14 --> 00:43:23 | trade, or if I talk about something, it's going to completely undermine your analysis. And that shouldn't happen. I've had many times where I've had students |
| 234 | 00:43:24 --> 00:43:34 | trading the very same market I'm in and I'm looking for a particular setup. Because I'm looking for a larger run. I'm looking for a bigger move. I'm not in |
| 235 | 00:43:34 --> 00:43:41 | here trying to fancy dance around and trying to catch you know, a couple handles here a couple of handles there not to not to disparage anyone that's doing that |
| 236 | 00:43:41 --> 00:43:50 | initially because it helps build your confidence. But you don't want to be discouraged by me or anyone else. If your analysis has been framed on the weekly |
| 237 | 00:43:50 --> 00:43:58 | and daily chart and you trust what is you're looking for. Nobody should have any influence on that. If it if I can influence your analysis, and sometimes I go |
| 238 | 00:43:58 --> 00:44:07 | into my students via streams, if I'm audibly saying something that I shouldn't say audibly, if I'm typing something out, what I'm doing is I'm testing their |
| 239 | 00:44:07 --> 00:44:17 | resolve. Like I want to see, can they stick with their analysis? Or are they going to look at me as a hero and wipe the analysis away and say, well, he's |
| 240 | 00:44:17 --> 00:44:25 | talking to me in code he's trying to tell me to do a no not. I'm testing your resolve. Because if you really are my student, you don't care what I'm saying |
| 241 | 00:44:25 --> 00:44:33 | about that market because you've already done your own your own analysis, your own homework, and you're gonna cosign with nobody. It's just you. It's a one man |
| 242 | 00:44:33 --> 00:44:43 | show one woman show. You're out there as a one man army against everybody else that's trading that same market. And I'm not going to throw you a cookie. |
| 243 | 00:44:44 --> 00:44:58 | Perfect example, Tonya trades. I've done it to her twice. And I physically saw when I visually saw her physically change because she read my comment, and she |
| 244 | 00:44:58 --> 00:45:08 | was doing something opposed to what I what I mentioned. And it completely undone her and certainly unsettled her. And thank you for the flowers, by the way, |
| 245 | 00:45:08 --> 00:45:21 | Tasha, very nice of us. We, we appreciate that. But I test my students resolve, because I want you, if you're a student of mine, you don't care what anybody |
| 246 | 00:45:21 --> 00:45:33 | else thinks. And you have to be real comfortable being the minority. You're comfortable being that person saying, you're all all of you are all wrong. Until |
| 247 | 00:45:33 --> 00:45:42 | the money market takes the money from my hands, you're all wrong. And that's what US consistently profitable mindset has to be. Because if you're out here, |
| 248 | 00:45:42 --> 00:45:54 | letting every tide every little change in the breeze, go on social media, on Financial Times, newspapers, articles, you know, whatever commentary that you |
| 249 | 00:45:54 --> 00:46:04 | hear on TV, listening to live streamers, talk about, you know, things that they don't know nothing about. It that has any influence over you. You're not ready |
| 250 | 00:46:04 --> 00:46:14 | to be trading with real money. And that's the, that's the clearest indication that you're not ready. So I don't know how I got on the subject. But let me |
| 251 | 00:46:14 --> 00:46:25 | climb off my soapbox for a moment, the fair value gap is above the 50%. So that means what that's a premium array. I pointed to it, and then the trade can be |
| 252 | 00:46:25 --> 00:46:35 | taken. Were shorting here or trading into the 60 to 70% trading level inside that area. And I've already told you the 70.5 level, that's that sweet spot. |
| 253 | 00:46:35 --> 00:46:47 | Okay, I dubbed it the little sweet spot for optimal trade entries for ICT. So I'm trying to get that price if I'm using optimal trade entry, or just below it, |
| 254 | 00:46:48 --> 00:46:58 | and I'm layering limit orders. And if I'm going short, at the 62%, tradesman level to the 70.5, I am not trying to get the 70.5 level. Because many times if |
| 255 | 00:46:58 --> 00:47:07 | you go back and look at your old data, you'll see that it just touches 70.5. And will that fill you know, because you need to spread it there's been many times |
| 256 | 00:47:08 --> 00:47:17 | over my career where I've tried to be laser precise about entries and have missed phenomenal entries. And watch them run without me. And when I was |
| 257 | 00:47:17 --> 00:47:26 | younger, and I was figuring all this stuff out, I was demoralized, because I didn't know how to get in a mood that already started, I was afraid. Well, now |
| 258 | 00:47:26 --> 00:47:34 | my stock is gonna be even bigger and right. And I was doing the right things. And it was teaching me the lessons of not being greedy about where I wanted to |
| 259 | 00:47:34 --> 00:47:42 | place my injuries. And it helped me manage all that stuff. Yeah, you can have a smaller stop loss if you get right at that level. But what's the practicality |
| 260 | 00:47:42 --> 00:47:52 | behind that? You're insisting that you're right. And I'm not always right, you're not always gonna be right. So the dealing ranges is how you define it. |
| 261 | 00:47:52 --> 00:48:08 | Now listen, this is green notes. A dealing range is a high that has engaged by side and a low that has engaged sell side. So now you've expanded outside the |
| 262 | 00:48:08 --> 00:48:18 | realm of the nearby close proximity, liquidity. Well, ICT, you're trying to tell me Listen, you've got that mentality, get the fuck out of here, okay, I'm |
| 263 | 00:48:18 --> 00:48:26 | telling you what works. I'm telling you what you should be doing. Okay. And these are things that would be in chapters in books. Okay. So this is what I |
| 264 | 00:48:26 --> 00:48:33 | would have paid an arm and a leg for if someone would have sat down and told these things. To me. A dealing range is not a dealing range unless it takes both |
| 265 | 00:48:33 --> 00:48:43 | sides of liquidity period. And the story in it must be on the timeframe you're looking for in terms of the analysis. So hello, have you noticed that we're |
| 266 | 00:48:43 --> 00:48:54 | talking about that five minute chart? You see it. So the high and the low, these two here, that's the finding the dealing the dealing range, if anybody's |
| 267 | 00:48:54 --> 00:49:01 | teaching anything other than that, that's not a dealing range. That's their interpretation of a trading range. And there's nothing wrong with that. But |
| 268 | 00:49:01 --> 00:49:08 | don't call it what I'm teaching. Don't Don't don't run with my words and say, Oh, this is what that is. Okay, because that's kind of like what I'm here for |
| 269 | 00:49:08 --> 00:49:20 | today. And I have I have an axe to grind. Let's put it that way. So the dealing range high ideal range low, we have to then see what where's the market going? |
| 270 | 00:49:21 --> 00:49:31 | What's it reaching for? You have to have something in terms of a longer term bias. Well, there's nothing better than a daily chart. We could try this better |
| 271 | 00:49:31 --> 00:49:41 | weekly than daily. But in terms of day trading, the daily chart, most of everything you're looking for, like I don't need a weekly chart, but it's like |
| 272 | 00:49:41 --> 00:49:50 | teaching with a weekly chart because it gives you a very, very long range where you can see a lot of targets that would otherwise evade you. And I learned this |
| 273 | 00:49:50 --> 00:49:58 | the hard way by holding on to trades as a younger man, and just getting my little objectives and thinking I was winning. You know, is this the best thing |
| 274 | 00:49:58 --> 00:50:06 | in the world? Yes, it's great. And then it'll just keep on going and keep on going and keep on going not to say that it still doesn't happen. Because many |
| 275 | 00:50:06 --> 00:50:15 | times the market can just go way beyond what I'm looking for. But I'm not kicking my dogs around the house because I didn't get all that move. I might say |
| 276 | 00:50:15 --> 00:50:23 | to myself, well, you know, I gotta leave that part out when I'm parading around front of my wife. Do my Mick Jagger was like, ah, yeah, there it is. peacocking |
| 277 | 00:50:23 --> 00:50:31 | around, I believe that part out because you don't need to know everything. Okay? There's nothing wrong with keeping something back. Okay? It's not since a lot of |
| 278 | 00:50:31 --> 00:50:42 | you guys out there, nod your head yet go go for each brother. But when we're looking at dealing ranges, okay. They're useless to you without having a |
| 279 | 00:50:42 --> 00:50:49 | directional bias. And you derive that from the weekly and the daily chart? And what are you? What do you mean by the ICT? Well, the same thing I just showed |
| 280 | 00:50:49 --> 00:51:00 | you here with a daily chart. Okay, back here. It would be reasonable. Okay, it'd be reasonable. If these lows in here were broken. And you go back to what I was |
| 281 | 00:51:00 --> 00:51:09 | teaching you on April 8. And that live stream, I said, we're going to be entering a seasonal tendency for the markets to go lower on a protracted manner, |
| 282 | 00:51:09 --> 00:51:18 | where it's not just a one day event, it's going to draw down indirection. And I'm not predicting a crash and go back and listen to I did not predict the |
| 283 | 00:51:18 --> 00:51:28 | crash. It's just, I was indicating to you that I'm looking for the best moves to be going lower. That's, that's all I was indicating there. Okay, so try not to |
| 284 | 00:51:28 --> 00:51:37 | make too much out of it. Either way, but if those lows are gonna be taken, wouldn't it be reasonable to assume that the sell side that's outside the scope |
| 285 | 00:51:37 --> 00:51:47 | of these lows here on the far left chart, if it's going to keep going lower? Where's the inefficiencies where you got to here, see that? This this range |
| 286 | 00:51:47 --> 00:51:56 | here, what is this, here's a little bit of a quiz for you. It's a buy side of ourselves on an efficiency, that is not a liquidity void. There's a whole lot of |
| 287 | 00:51:56 --> 00:52:06 | liquidity being exchanged back and forth on a daily chart. It's not void of liquidity. It's inefficient in the sense that it's not offering much in terms of |
| 288 | 00:52:06 --> 00:52:17 | sell side, listen, sell side delivery, that means the market needs to offer prices going lower. And we get that with this candlestick over here. It goes |
| 289 | 00:52:17 --> 00:52:33 | down this inefficiency, because I don't teach supply and demand. Because much like harmonics, that's bullshit, too. If you look at the city, I'm sorry, are |
| 290 | 00:52:33 --> 00:52:34 | busy by side |
| 291 | 00:52:36 --> 00:52:45 | and bounce on efficiency. And you frame those two levels here, you're going to find the real, real support resistance. No, I'm not a Support Resistance trader. |
| 292 | 00:52:46 --> 00:52:55 | But this is what the algorithm refers back to the markets trading lower, like I told you on Eighth of April 2024. In the live stream, it starts moving lower, it |
| 293 | 00:52:55 --> 00:53:05 | attacks the sell side, and it goes down and trades beyond this by some invalid sell some inefficiency. So what's the algorithm gonna refer back to this level, |
| 294 | 00:53:05 --> 00:53:15 | the lower quadrant, consequent encroachment, which is the midpoint, upper quadrant, and then the high. The market trades here yesterday, for those that |
| 295 | 00:53:16 --> 00:53:25 | get Tuesday, trades up into bumps it one more time yesterday, boom, displacement, lower, you see that? That's not random. That stuff repeats all the |
| 296 | 00:53:25 --> 00:53:38 | time. Now, how many of you are looking for these types of things, to frame setups, barriers of trade profitability or targeting, where you're demanding the |
| 297 | 00:53:38 --> 00:53:46 | price move beyond the scope of just what you see on these lower timeframes. Like unless you have these levels on your chart, you're not going to fully appreciate |
| 298 | 00:53:47 --> 00:53:59 | what it's doing, and how it moves. It does this all the time, all the time. When you see this, you will start to flesh out the initial mechanics behind my |
| 299 | 00:53:59 --> 00:54:10 | inversion for Vega. Because when price is bullish, it trades down into these areas like it does here, in here in bronze. Yeah, you can trade it with those |
| 300 | 00:54:10 --> 00:54:18 | mechanics behind your trade. But what happens when it breaks it and you are in a seasonal tendency when you're bearish, and you're in a high timeframe chart? |
| 301 | 00:54:19 --> 00:54:27 | Well, you're going to have these levels on your chart, because then you'll see setups that would otherwise never be noticed at all. And I watched live |
| 302 | 00:54:27 --> 00:54:35 | streamers. I watch other people talk about what they think the markets gonna do. And okay, let me slow down here because I know some of you are brand new or you |
| 303 | 00:54:35 --> 00:54:43 | just the first time you're listening to me, and it sounds like all you're doing is talking down about other traders. No, I'm telling you how to use other |
| 304 | 00:54:43 --> 00:54:54 | people's opinions appropriately. The correct way. Your if your idea is bullish or bearish and you're using the concepts I'm teaching, I'm teaching you the very |
| 305 | 00:54:54 --> 00:55:03 | concepts that the street money is going to fall victim to because many times are trading against this approach. They're trading against this intellect, this |
| 306 | 00:55:03 --> 00:55:13 | mindset, this perspective on price action, because they're looking at some kind of indicator, or a list of indicators. And they believe like a religion, that |
| 307 | 00:55:13 --> 00:55:24 | that's going to cause price to go up or down, and it has absolutely no bearing on price zero. My order block my inefficiencies. And when we're talking about by |
| 308 | 00:55:24 --> 00:55:35 | Sanibel, sl 70, efficiency, or city sells on a bounce by sudden efficiency, either one of those. They're not a an assured outcome. That's not promised to |
| 309 | 00:55:35 --> 00:55:45 | you. Because it all hinges on. Are you looking at the market at the right time? Are you looking at all the characteristics that are associated with that very |
| 310 | 00:55:45 --> 00:55:56 | session of the day that you're trading? And what have they already done in price? You have to factor all those things in. And if you're brand new, or |
| 311 | 00:55:56 --> 00:56:06 | relatively new, and anything less than two years, in my opinion is relatively new, you have very little experience, okay, you just got your feet wet. And you |
| 312 | 00:56:06 --> 00:56:15 | can make a lot of money in your first few years and not really understand what you did. But it feels like you're smart. I've been there. You learn these types |
| 313 | 00:56:15 --> 00:56:26 | of lessons by applying what you're looking for on higher timeframe charts. And those levels carry over to your smaller timeframes. And they won't be hidden |
| 314 | 00:56:26 --> 00:56:36 | from you. You won't be so inclined to say, well, you know what, I see this, this markets rallying up in here, you know, it might take this high out here, I'm |
| 315 | 00:56:36 --> 00:56:42 | bullish, it's gonna go up here and trade into this sell side unbalanced buy center efficiency, why should it do that? Because it's already shown a |
| 316 | 00:56:42 --> 00:56:52 | willingness to go up there reject. And then we opened here, we trade back up, I'm looking for the midpoint and a failure and not get above the high. Why? |
| 317 | 00:56:52 --> 00:57:02 | Because it's already overshot this by sentimental sell some inefficiency. So inside of this little area, all close proximity on lower timeframes around the |
| 318 | 00:57:02 --> 00:57:18 | 17,009 54. or there abouts. You can look for premium fair value gaps to get short or up close candles and to be treated as my bearish ICT order. You do not |
| 319 | 00:57:18 --> 00:57:27 | look at a down closed candle above a high that's been broken. And wait for it to trade back down into it and think that that's going to support the price and go |
| 320 | 00:57:27 --> 00:57:36 | higher. Don't do that, especially when the markets underlying Lee bearish it's not going to happen. It's not going to happen at all. You're gonna get burned |
| 321 | 00:57:36 --> 00:57:44 | and you're gonna walk away thinking wow, I watched this guy try to take 32 years and compress it into a five minute trainer didn't learn ICT and five minutes. |
| 322 | 00:57:46 --> 00:57:54 | Learn how to do everything ICT taught incorrectly in five minutes and learn how to regret watching that five minute trainer. That's what that's really what it |
| 323 | 00:57:54 --> 00:58:01 | is, okay, you want something that's going to teach you how to talk like we do. You want to talk the talk because it makes it sound believable. When you're in |
| 324 | 00:58:01 --> 00:58:08 | your you'd live streams. Or if you talk in your videos in hindsight and doing Market Replay stuff. It's all together something different when you're out here |
| 325 | 00:58:08 --> 00:58:17 | when the markets moving live. So you have to really learn how to do it otherwise don't bother. So when you identify these levels on a weekly and or daily |
| 326 | 00:58:17 --> 00:58:31 | timeframe, it allows you to see the marketplace through the lens that is against the grain, because everybody else is going to be doing something that is in |
| 327 | 00:58:31 --> 00:58:41 | every retail theory and none of the stuff that you see me teaching you like today, you know, honestly, who's looking at that level right there and call that |
| 328 | 00:58:41 --> 00:58:49 | a level of support or resistance. I'm gonna tell you right now, nobody's doing that. Nobody. They're looking at this level right here. They're looking at these |
| 329 | 00:58:49 --> 00:58:55 | levels here because they're close together, they look what double bottoms Well, that's a support level, but it was broken. So what they're gonna expect the |
| 330 | 00:58:55 --> 00:59:04 | market is going to trade up to that level, because that's a double bottom broken now turn resistance. That's bullshit. That's bullshit. I can't tell you how many |
| 331 | 00:59:04 --> 00:59:15 | times I've blown an account, believe in that nonsense. And hoping it was going to finally start working for me noop noop noop noop noop noop noop. So you have |
| 332 | 00:59:15 --> 00:59:25 | to look at how the market creates these inefficiencies because the algorithm will go back to those levels and offer one more instance because it's already |
| 333 | 00:59:25 --> 00:59:38 | done the work of going up here. And what's it lacking on this candle between the ranges of 18,001 92 and 17,009 54? It's only offered on this timeframe what what |
| 334 | 00:59:38 --> 00:59:51 | they offer by side delivery, not liquidity, listen to what I'm saying. It's offering by side delivery. That means momentum and delivered higher prices. So |
| 335 | 00:59:51 --> 01:00:02 | because it's only this single candle that's traversed, from the previous candles high to the second next candles low All this range is only been traversed by |
| 336 | 01:00:02 --> 01:00:15 | that one individual candlestick on one day, specifically February 22. Because of that, anytime we get into here, if we're bullish, that's an area where we can |
| 337 | 01:00:15 --> 01:00:25 | anticipate what down close candles on smaller timeframes. That would be nice if people wish order block or want to smaller timeframes, short term loads that are |
| 338 | 01:00:25 --> 01:00:37 | taken out. As long as it's the right time of day. They can be turtle soup, long entries. Gears are starting to turn on a day. Or you can wait for a small |
| 339 | 01:00:37 --> 01:00:46 | timeframe displacement in price where it takes out a short term lower timeframe high. That leaves a fair value gap when it trades back down to the fair value |
| 340 | 01:00:46 --> 01:00:57 | get you by that because you're trading with this idea that it's gone down into this inefficiency. And as I taught in the mentorship lessons, if you measure |
| 341 | 01:00:57 --> 01:01:05 | this right here and watch, I'm gonna pull fill up. Now the fibs aren't managed, okay, this helps me measure a range to teach you with the length I had to create |
| 342 | 01:01:05 --> 01:01:14 | a language to try to teach this stuff to you because much like you see all these assholes out there all he's rebranded it, save everybody the time. Okay, save |
| 343 | 01:01:14 --> 01:01:22 | everybody the time if you believe that come collect $5 million, because nobody's got that bounty from me yet. If this is all regurgitates some somewhere else, |
| 344 | 01:01:22 --> 01:01:30 | okay, show us where it's at. Do a list the page numbers in the book and the author, okay, and be done with it. But because nobody can do that, that's how |
| 345 | 01:01:30 --> 01:01:40 | you know they're horseshit. But as I taught in the lessons if you're bullish, okay, if you are bullish inefficiencies that are like in this case, here, we're |
| 346 | 01:01:40 --> 01:01:53 | defining this one. The best place for the entries on Long's are not listen, they're not in the lower half. Why? If you've been a student of mine, and you've |
| 347 | 01:01:53 --> 01:02:03 | been journaling, you heard me say this not in one time, but at nauseam. If it's bullish, it won't want to come back down here. That's what you really want. |
| 348 | 01:02:03 --> 01:02:11 | That's a signature and price delivery, that you really want to have that. So it's better for you to look for the long between this candles low, which is the |
| 349 | 01:02:11 --> 01:02:19 | high of that by sentimental sales on efficiency, which is a fair value gap by classification. But specifically, it's by side and bounce sell side |
| 350 | 01:02:19 --> 01:02:32 | inefficiency, meaning it's an up close candle. And the Best Buy's will form consequent crotchet, which is the midpoint of that inefficiency to a tie. Look |
| 351 | 01:02:32 --> 01:02:36 | at the sensitivity and price right here. Look at that. That's near perfect. |
| 352 | 01:02:37 --> 01:02:45 | That's diabolical. And because they created what relative equal lows? What does that look like to retail trader? Oh, that's a double bottom, we can put a stop |
| 353 | 01:02:45 --> 01:02:58 | loss and go long. Oh, okay, we got you there too. And then it takes the higher higher when we have this, we cannot listen. We cannot Absolutely not, you do |
| 354 | 01:02:58 --> 01:03:09 | not. Look at the down close candle here. And think okay, when it trades back down there, I'm gonna go long because what you've done is insisted upon the |
| 355 | 01:03:09 --> 01:03:18 | market now has to bend your will and make even a higher high here when it's already done. So with that high being taken there. This has now been exhausted. |
| 356 | 01:03:19 --> 01:03:27 | It can trade down here and have a little little bit of a reaction. But you're you're gambling doing that. You're absolutely gambling. That is not an order |
| 357 | 01:03:27 --> 01:03:37 | block. Okay, that is not the market trades down one more time. Midpoint that by send ourselves on efficiency multiple times here in rallies, does it take out |
| 358 | 01:03:37 --> 01:03:46 | the highs over here? No. Is it tradable on a lower timeframe like a one minute chart, if I'm in charge short, short is absolutely. But my trades I try to frame |
| 359 | 01:03:46 --> 01:03:57 | them on the context of outlined on April 8. Last thing, I want to see long, long distance attractions beyond the scope of just what it's going to do in the next |
| 360 | 01:03:57 --> 01:04:08 | couple of minutes. You got to put a trade on overleveraged got my 17 points, I got my nine points. I mean, get out of here, I'm done. And then watch it keep on |
| 361 | 01:04:08 --> 01:04:20 | going 150 250 500 handles, I want to be in the mindset where my trades can. They don't have to, but they can move way beyond what I'm looking for for an |
| 362 | 01:04:20 --> 01:04:28 | objective. Contrast that with how you're trading right now and what you're trying to sell you as a parameter for your trades. You're trying to box yourself |
| 363 | 01:04:28 --> 01:04:38 | in you want these little tiny little, always easy short term. Okay, that's good in the beginning, but you have to grow outside that five handle run. And then |
| 364 | 01:04:38 --> 01:04:45 | stretch your boundaries and try to be more flexible and allow for 10 handles then and do that for a little while. Get comfortable with it when you're bored. |
| 365 | 01:04:46 --> 01:04:55 | And then go to 20 handles and do that for a little while and reach to 30 and so forth until you get up to around 100 handles and then use that as your your bare |
| 366 | 01:04:55 --> 01:05:04 | minimum. The barrier to entry for you as a trader. Your setup have to yield potentially 100 handles or more. And guess what that's going to do for you, it's |
| 367 | 01:05:04 --> 01:05:12 | going to filter out a lot of bullshit trades that you shouldn't be taken anyway. But so you don't want to do that, you're thinking, I can make a whole lot more |
| 368 | 01:05:12 --> 01:05:24 | money having 1000 contracts linked together over the span of dozens of accounts. And you can make your money like that you can, but it tricks you into thinking |
| 369 | 01:05:24 --> 01:05:34 | you need to trade all the time. Whereas if you just go in here, and you look for these big monster moves, the effort is so minimal, your risk is reduced, because |
| 370 | 01:05:34 --> 01:05:43 | you're only going in with the initial risk of whatever that trade was initially, and then you manage it as it runs, you can add more to it and pyramid, larger |
| 371 | 01:05:43 --> 01:05:50 | position sizes of going, you don't have to enter your whole your whole position in the beginning. In fact, it's probably better you don't do that. But you don't |
| 372 | 01:05:50 --> 01:05:59 | listen to those good advice. You don't listen to that. Because you see other people out there showing you the one time the few times that the winners the |
| 373 | 01:05:59 --> 01:06:06 | things they did, right, but they're not showing you, I shouldn't say that there's there's individuals that show you where they blew it. And I have a lot |
| 374 | 01:06:06 --> 01:06:13 | of respect for that. I actually encourage a lot of that. Because in this industry, you have a lot of people out there, and they're gonna lie to you, |
| 375 | 01:06:13 --> 01:06:20 | they're gonna say, This is what the gospel is in trading, blah, blah, blah, and there's no fruit behind that no one's making any money doing it, they don't have |
| 376 | 01:06:20 --> 01:06:30 | any students doing it. So it's very suspect. And that's why I've been highly critical. My whole entire time on social media was highly critical of other |
| 377 | 01:06:30 --> 01:06:41 | people, demanding them to bring forth the evidence that what you are saying is in the marketplace, and what you're saying works. And is it replicable? Because |
| 378 | 01:06:41 --> 01:06:52 | if it's something I say, I believe in, and I go out, and I do, and I'm the only they can do it. And it's, you know, it's what's the point, my whole point of |
| 379 | 01:06:52 --> 01:07:01 | coming out and trying to teach was to help other people do what I know they're capable of if they have the right information. And they have a process. But it |
| 380 | 01:07:01 --> 01:07:09 | takes a lot of due diligence on your part as a student, that you have to number one knows some general rules, and you have to operate within them. And if you |
| 381 | 01:07:09 --> 01:07:16 | don't, if you're not willing to do that, how can you measure your progress? And how can you say if it works, or doesn't work? Because you're not doing this, |
| 382 | 01:07:16 --> 01:07:26 | you're not doing the process correctly, you're not submitting to that process correctly, which is, in effect, a lesson in itself, because nobody likes to do |
| 383 | 01:07:27 --> 01:07:36 | what they're told. I mean, think about it, you have kids, you know what it's like, believe me, I have adult kids. And I thought it'd be easier once they grow |
| 384 | 01:07:36 --> 01:07:42 | as an adult. And, you know, I'm bailing them out. And dad, I did this and then I bought this and this doesn't work, like I thought I was gonna work in this car |
| 385 | 01:07:42 --> 01:07:49 | sucks. I should have picked the one you said, right? You should have listened to that. Right, you should have listened. But I'd gave you what you wanted. And now |
| 386 | 01:07:49 --> 01:08:03 | I'm picking up the tab again. Anyway, when we have this retracement in here inside the dealing range, why? Because we're looking for lower prices, we're in |
| 387 | 01:08:03 --> 01:08:10 | a seasonal tendency where lower prices are welcome. They don't have to be its own. It's an election year, like I mentioned, on the eighth of April's |
| 388 | 01:08:10 --> 01:08:17 | livestream, everything can get thrown out the window. So it's important not to over leverage your trades right now, if you're in here trying to push as much as |
| 389 | 01:08:17 --> 01:08:27 | you can, because you can afford to do so leverage wise and in margin wise, you're doing it wrong. I promise you, you will regret it, you might have a good |
| 390 | 01:08:27 --> 01:08:37 | win here and there and get these real big windfall victories. But eventually, eventually, you're going to have to pay the price. And that price is going to be |
| 391 | 01:08:37 --> 01:08:45 | a lot more than you're willing to pay. And that that knock against you where that loss is going to hurt. It's going to make you mad, and you're going to want |
| 392 | 01:08:45 --> 01:08:52 | to get it back. And that starts the whole train wreck, where you end up blowing your account because you're trying to be too emotional about it. So when we see |
| 393 | 01:08:52 --> 01:09:01 | the low, that took up this low of here, and this high here, that's our defined, dealing range right there. That's what that is. It has to take both sides of the |
| 394 | 01:09:01 --> 01:09:11 | marketplace. Now here's the here's the cool part. If you're bearish, you want to see, then listen, this is this is something you have to really appreciate over |
| 395 | 01:09:11 --> 01:09:20 | time seeing it. Don't take my word for it here. But it's exactly what I taught mentorship, okay, the paid mentorship, you can watch those core lessons on my |
| 396 | 01:09:20 --> 01:09:27 | YouTube channel the playlist for every individual month, how would I how do I go in what order to watch all these videos? Well, it says month one, why are you |
| 397 | 01:09:27 --> 01:09:33 | trying to start in month five because people are talking about month five, start month one and go through the process. And don't try to watch them all at one |
| 398 | 01:09:33 --> 01:09:41 | time because you're not going to retain it. But I taught and I'm going to remind you here, this is not a cliff notes version. Okay, because there's other details |
| 399 | 01:09:41 --> 01:09:56 | in lectures that support and help you understand what benefits this brings. If you're bearish you do want to see by side taken first, then drop down here. You |
| 400 | 01:09:56 --> 01:10:06 | don't want to see market trade down take out that low and Then take out by sight. That's a that's a daily range. But that would be against the grain of |
| 401 | 01:10:06 --> 01:10:13 | what you're looking for. And oh, let me say it this way, it would be against the grain. See, small little volume and balance right there, between the bodies |
| 402 | 01:10:13 --> 01:10:22 | close in the bodies open. That's what that candlestick. I'm watching that as far as I'm jawboning. The, you want to see, as I was talking about on the daily |
| 403 | 01:10:22 --> 01:10:29 | chart, if I'm bearish, as I indicated, on the eighth of April, in our live stream, I said, we're gonna be looking for lower prices. It bumped that previous |
| 404 | 01:10:29 --> 01:10:40 | high right there. And I'm sure some of you that were in that livestream or watched it afterwards, like ICT got it wrong. let it scare scary. But long story |
| 405 | 01:10:40 --> 01:10:49 | short, you're wrong, because it went up here took the buy side, and then did exactly what I was looking for on the longer term, macro timeframe. Longer term |
| 406 | 01:10:49 --> 01:11:05 | runs lower. That is the key to you finding consistency and deriving bias. That's the if I had the answer, what question I get the most through trading view |
| 407 | 01:11:05 --> 01:11:20 | messenger. Emails, posts in my comments, okay, or in the comment section of my videos, is, please teach bias. I've been teaching bias, this entire livestream |
| 408 | 01:11:20 --> 01:11:30 | here. But see, you want 123 checklist easy, it's always going to work. And I don't have to do any work. It's just it's just a matter of just this |
| 409 | 01:11:30 --> 01:11:42 | automatically works. And I wish there was a way for me to teach it like that. But it requires a number of things that have to come in and agreement. So what |
| 410 | 01:11:42 --> 01:11:44 | do I mean by that? To hear Bailey snoring? |
| 411 | 01:11:46 --> 01:11:55 | Bailey's my oldest puppy. By the way, the the daily chart, we're looking for a drone, liquidity means the markets gone, here we go, the opening range is |
| 412 | 01:11:55 --> 01:12:05 | starting. So now we've taken out that low right here. So now, just know that this seven, I'm sorry, 678 25. That was the feeling range low. And I'm just |
| 413 | 01:12:05 --> 01:12:17 | going to take this off, and drag that to here, because the only thing we did was just expanded the range. And now we've done what we created this high, this low. |
| 414 | 01:12:17 --> 01:12:28 | So now because the opening bell has happened, this is our dealing range. Now. See that? Why? Because we have a change in session. The 830 new driver is now |
| 415 | 01:12:28 --> 01:12:38 | behind us. And the opening bell in the volatility is associated with the opening bell. And inside the opening range, which is the 30 minutes between 930 and 10 |
| 416 | 01:12:38 --> 01:12:44 | o'clock in the morning, you see how you have to have all this stuff, folks. You thought it was just watch the video, I'm gonna figure it all out. I'm gonna go |
| 417 | 01:12:44 --> 01:12:51 | to this guy seminar is gonna reduce everything ICT teaches bullshit. That's bullshit. That's bullshit. Don't be tricked by them that stuff, okay, there's no |
| 418 | 01:12:51 --> 01:13:03 | shortcuts, you're gonna have to work your ass off. It's a lot of studying. It's a lot of effort. But now we have the the expectation when we're bearish, we want |
| 419 | 01:13:03 --> 01:13:12 | to see by side taken because as I mentioned over here, at the beginning, the recording or presentation is the best moves are going to be associated with an |
| 420 | 01:13:12 --> 01:13:26 | initial run on stops. The initial run on stops. That means if we're bearish, we are anticipating we're expecting we want it we are inviting it. We're looking |
| 421 | 01:13:26 --> 01:13:35 | and studying to see if the market wants to take out buy stops, because we're bearish. That is the smart money showing its hand to you that they are going |
| 422 | 01:13:35 --> 01:13:43 | right up there to knock out these individuals that would otherwise be profitable. Because look what they did that day. Last Wednesday, they did what? |
| 423 | 01:13:44 --> 01:13:52 | They dropped it, but they left all the cells and I didn't see that. So they bumped all the way up here to take those people that had shorts on. They're not |
| 424 | 01:13:52 --> 01:14:00 | allowed to be on the ride. They take them all the way back up to here, and they're gonna puke your guts up, say I can't hold this short. And then once it |
| 425 | 01:14:00 --> 01:14:12 | starts dropping again, they're scared. They don't want to get short. I'm afraid it's going to stop me out. So they don't get in, and then drop it and then |
| 426 | 01:14:12 --> 01:14:21 | accelerate through where the sell side is. And then as I taught you here, right in here, that inefficiency. There's no need for it to trade back up to here. |
| 427 | 01:14:21 --> 01:14:30 | Why? Because first of all, it's retail. That's retail logic. That's double violence being broken now should act as resistance, man, throw that shit out. |
| 428 | 01:14:31 --> 01:14:38 | Don't if you if you trade like that you're not going to find these types of setups. You're not going to see it visibly. You're not going to know what it's |
| 429 | 01:14:38 --> 01:14:48 | doing. Listen, folks, look at the chart. Is this hindsight. Is this hindsight. Did I not tell you that fair value gap right here. Keep your eye on now. Look at |
| 430 | 01:14:48 --> 01:14:55 | this slide right here. If you close right now, and I'm sure some of you took shorts. If you ain't taking profits, you're here take partials right now. Take |
| 431 | 01:14:55 --> 01:15:03 | partials move your stop to break even and they can relax and listen to the rest of the jawboning session. You But you're not watching this on a pre recorded |
| 432 | 01:15:03 --> 01:15:14 | edition, okay? I gotta bite my tongue because I really, really want to say something. Now, I have, I had to keep my promise and say nothing. But this is |
| 433 | 01:15:14 --> 01:15:23 | the draw the 21st of February. So if they're gonna bump and run the stops here, and we were bearish, we've known about it since April 8, because some guy on |
| 434 | 01:15:23 --> 01:15:32 | internet, they might see T said, we're going into seasonal tendency, and it's likely go lower. And if it's gonna go lower, and we've already taken our sell |
| 435 | 01:15:32 --> 01:15:42 | side, well, this is a range here, right? That low to the high. So where's the cell side that it's below that low right there. So for to drop as much as it's |
| 436 | 01:15:42 --> 01:15:52 | done here and not take out the 21st of February is low. It's kind of like wasted. Like, why would they take it down this far and not go at least to take |
| 437 | 01:15:52 --> 01:16:00 | out that cell side? They can, it's happened before I've been in trades where it's done that, which is why I teach and as I mentioned just now, I know some of |
| 438 | 01:16:00 --> 01:16:07 | you are short. And this is probably the biggest trade you've ever had in your career. Well done, but you didn't earn it. So don't go on social media and |
| 439 | 01:16:07 --> 01:16:17 | parade around say, Look at this shit, I did this bam, hello. Can't do that kind of stuff. you'd listen to me talk about it. That's not something you should |
| 440 | 01:16:17 --> 01:16:26 | congratulate yourself for. Okay, I'm not going to high five, you, you shouldn't be taking the trades, watching, observing and listening. Because now what you've |
| 441 | 01:16:26 --> 01:16:35 | done is you've given yourself a sweet tooth. You want every trade to pan out like this one, you want every move the pain out just like this one. And when you |
| 442 | 01:16:35 --> 01:16:43 | get your own analysis, you scrape together your own reasons why the market should do something and you get into it, it's going to him and haul or go |
| 443 | 01:16:43 --> 01:16:52 | against you. And it's going to be more detrimental to your psyche as a trader than if you would have just watched today paying out without you blink putting |
| 444 | 01:16:52 --> 01:17:04 | anything behind it. In contrast, the people that have taken the trade and they're in here short up in here. Well, yeah, they made money. But they know |
| 445 | 01:17:05 --> 01:17:11 | they didn't earn it didn't find that trade on their own. They didn't take that because they found it. They're listening to me in front of however many people |
| 446 | 01:17:11 --> 01:17:24 | were watching me. And I felt inclined to talk about it now gave you my bias. So you had all the boxes checked for you. But you have to do that when I'm not part |
| 447 | 01:17:24 --> 01:17:33 | of your trade. When I'm not captaining your ship, you have to have the confidence, the wherewithal to stay with it and trust that well these are the |
| 448 | 01:17:33 --> 01:17:43 | concepts say I'm supposed to do and I'm growing in my experience in my learning. So I have to press into that uncomfortable periods where I don't know if it's |
| 449 | 01:17:43 --> 01:17:53 | gonna pan out I don't know if it's gonna work because you haven't been there enough times and give us some room because we were in flow through it yes, it's |
| 450 | 01:17:53 --> 01:18:06 | it's boring seeing this stuff all the time. But the your stop loss should be rolled to 660 Here you go. There's your there's your live analysis. Put that in |
| 451 | 01:18:06 --> 01:18:13 | your fucking pipe and smoke it. Oh, you always get it wrong. I get it wrong when I want to get it. I'm still waiting for this fucking Joker to end up on a |
| 452 | 01:18:13 --> 01:18:24 | leaderboard. Where are you at? Fini e mini MOTHER FUCKA Come on. April 6, you were supposed to steamroll on in there. I told Joe Robinson tell me when you get |
| 453 | 01:18:24 --> 01:18:37 | in there. I heard shit from Joe. Where's he? Where's he at? Whoa, shit. Where's Vinnie? Yet? You ain't here? I'm ready to chop your ass. Cameroon, but you ain't |
| 454 | 01:18:37 --> 01:18:50 | coming out here. Why? Cuz you're a fucking Munich. Okay, you have no balls. So anyway, I have to get that out how to get it out. So we have covered the dealing |
| 455 | 01:18:50 --> 01:18:58 | ranges. If we're bearish, we want to see by side taken then sell side then we have a defined range. Then you measure that with your fit wherever the halfway |
| 456 | 01:18:58 --> 01:19:12 | point is, the halfway point is your equilibrium price point. Now, when that occurs, that you have a bias that's bearish, when you have a time when you're |
| 457 | 01:19:12 --> 01:19:21 | trying to execute, like 830 is your news embargo lifting where news drivers come in, even when there is no medium or high impact news driver at 830. The market |
| 458 | 01:19:21 --> 01:19:32 | still will operate under algorithmic principles, and it'll still spool it'll create these little Judas swings. Okay, and a Judas swing is a fake run. It's a |
| 459 | 01:19:32 --> 01:19:46 | fake price run that is against the direction that you think the markets gonna go. It's gonna go a different direction than what is initially being shown. So |
| 460 | 01:19:46 --> 01:19:55 | if you're bearish many times you'll see it spike up. Okay, go back and listen to this live stream. Okay. I said, when it spiked up here, that's about enough. |
| 461 | 01:19:55 --> 01:20:02 | That's that's all I would require. What does that mean? Well, I already told you that I was bearish. I told you that level right here on the daily chart is what |
| 462 | 01:20:02 --> 01:20:14 | I'm aiming for. So you have the highest timeframes being utilized for determining the bias, where should the market trade to? Why should it go there. |
| 463 | 01:20:15 --> 01:20:25 | And it's time when the market can do what it can manipulate. It can manipulate the perspective that can manipulate the expectations of traders. And what how's |
| 464 | 01:20:25 --> 01:20:36 | that done? At 830? When that employment data comes out, we want to see how many times have you had a bias and it's starts running the other direction, and you |
| 465 | 01:20:36 --> 01:20:44 | want to quickly abandon it and say, I'm probably wrong, it's probably gonna go up. Or if you're expecting it to go up, and it starts dropping real quick. You |
| 466 | 01:20:44 --> 01:20:52 | think I'm probably wrong? A better bit short, let me look for a fair bet you got to sell short. You've probably done a lot. It's because you're not doing the |
| 467 | 01:20:52 --> 01:21:00 | things I'm teaching you here. Like, if I thought I did a paid workshop, then no, I'm not doing this. Okay. But if I did paid workshops, day one would be just |
| 468 | 01:21:00 --> 01:21:11 | like this. This is exactly what I did when I had individuals come to my home in the 90s, and spend a week with me, okay, this is exactly what I would do, I |
| 469 | 01:21:11 --> 01:21:21 | would sit down with them. And I'd say, Okay, here's what's going on. And I always started with a high impact or medium impact news driver day. And I would |
| 470 | 01:21:21 --> 01:21:31 | teach them just like this. So if you understood, everything I've covered here, if you didn't take notes, you want to watch this all over again. Okay, I'm not |
| 471 | 01:21:31 --> 01:21:36 | leaving yet. I'm gonna stay with you till 10 o'clock. But I've |
| 472 | 01:21:36 --> 01:21:48 | given you the, the very building blocks to determining what your bias should be, how it should be framed, and why you shouldn't be worrying about the lower |
| 473 | 01:21:48 --> 01:22:00 | timeframe charts, because they're, they're going to be not as helpful to you, when high impact news drivers first 30 minutes. Me personally, I'll wait 15. But |
| 474 | 01:22:00 --> 01:22:07 | because you're learning this for the first time, you should subscribe to waiting for the first 30 minutes. So if it's in high impact news driver coming on at |
| 475 | 01:22:07 --> 01:22:14 | 830, you're not allowed to look at a five minute chart for your entry. I'm sorry, you're not allowed to look at anything less than a five minute chart for |
| 476 | 01:22:14 --> 01:22:22 | your entry. And some of you might want to argue and say, Well, you know, I get that I can see how someone weaker. But I'm a better trader than most people. I'm |
| 477 | 01:22:22 --> 01:22:32 | a better student than it realizes. Because if he only could see what I'm doing, he would know that I am exempt from this role. Okay, well, maybe you are. I |
| 478 | 01:22:32 --> 01:22:41 | don't know that. And really, you don't know that. I have some really amazing students that can trade very, very well. And they don't think highly of |
| 479 | 01:22:41 --> 01:22:49 | themselves when he could. So be careful. Don't let your ego push you into situations and circumstances where you're writing checks your ass can't cover. |
| 480 | 01:22:50 --> 01:23:00 | But the the deal range, I find that today for you. Okay, Sunaina What is it dealing range? What does it matter? Why does it matter? Because then you can |
| 481 | 01:23:00 --> 01:23:10 | frame whether the markets bullish or bearish inside that range when it retraces, which is exactly what you want to see if you're bearish, we want to see it reach |
| 482 | 01:23:10 --> 01:23:21 | up with that candle right there on the right side chain candles, candlestick chart here, my cursor I'm going to show you now here, it's on the far right |
| 483 | 01:23:21 --> 01:23:34 | chart that came was 830. On a five minute chart, I showed you the specific premium array. I do not need to put a Fibonacci on there. I did not need draw |
| 484 | 01:23:34 --> 01:23:47 | that stuff out. Okay. My eye jumps to it, because I've been doing it for three decades. Plus, you will not need to do this in time, how much time whenever it |
| 485 | 01:23:47 --> 01:23:54 | is for you that you get comfortable? Do you don't have to have all the lipstick on your chart. But because I'm teaching and we go back to what the initial |
| 486 | 01:23:54 --> 01:24:07 | dealing range was before the 930 opening bell, that was your range? Okay, this is it. When we frame that with the Fed, I showed you that was where equilibrium |
| 487 | 01:24:07 --> 01:24:21 | was. Okay, so you want to see the market? In fact, trade, at least to that. But what would that what would that do for a trader? What offers and invites the |
| 488 | 01:24:21 --> 01:24:29 | opportunity to trade a breaker because that's what this is here. You have this drop down here and make a higher high. So there's a bearish breaker. There's one |
| 489 | 01:24:29 --> 01:24:37 | trade idea. Now look how they overlap. Then you have the fair value gap I pointed to and I said look at this fair value got good again, go back and watch |
| 490 | 01:24:37 --> 01:24:44 | the livestream. I don't have the DVR settings turned off so that way nobody can go back and look where I said something wrong. Go back and scroll back to it. |
| 491 | 01:24:44 --> 01:24:53 | You'll see me and hear me say it. This is the fair value of I'm watching. And then you'll hear me say this is enough for me. It's done enough for me. In |
| 492 | 01:24:53 --> 01:25:03 | context, what is that? It's created enough of a Judas swing, a counter move up against the grain of what I was outlining for the day, the day is going to be |
| 493 | 01:25:03 --> 01:25:12 | bearish. It's going to take out the February 21, low of 2024. That's this over here on the daily chart. You see what I'm doing with all the charts here? If you |
| 494 | 01:25:12 --> 01:25:19 | don't have the Vietnam Listen, this is not a plug. I don't get anything from trading view. Okay. They've offered me some kind of partnership. I've denied it. |
| 495 | 01:25:19 --> 01:25:27 | I've declined it. I've said no, I'm not interested in it. I use TradingView. Because my community said to use it when Mt four was shown that you can game it. |
| 496 | 01:25:28 --> 01:25:35 | Okay. I didn't ever use a white label server. I didn't use a fake NT fair server. None of that shit was ever done by me. I couldn't do it to save my life. |
| 497 | 01:25:35 --> 01:25:46 | I had to do it. I don't know how to do it. Clearly you can see here. What is it now? Is it a rented white label TradingView. Like, what I have to see me, like |
| 498 | 01:25:46 --> 01:25:56 | your charts are showing the same damn thing mine is. And this is live. I showed you a 32nd chart, a five minute chart, and a one inch or one and a daily chart |
| 499 | 01:25:56 --> 01:26:03 | of here. So you have all these different timeframes. You're all shown it. Okay, every one of these charts have the the markets open. It's not Market Replay. And |
| 500 | 01:26:03 --> 01:26:13 | I told you we were looking for lower prices on April 8. Okay, so I gave you the macro perspective weeks ago. And now, right there. At the time of this |
| 501 | 01:26:13 --> 01:26:21 | discussion, we have an high impact news driver. How do we use the high impact news driver ICT? Well, you got to be in front of the charts. And you have to |
| 502 | 01:26:21 --> 01:26:30 | anticipate certain signatures on a signature is things like this here, where this boss Annabelle sellside efficiency when it was broken in a time when I'm |
| 503 | 01:26:30 --> 01:26:41 | bearish. When it trades back up to it, that's your real resistance. It is not going back to this Lowe's or this low, you don't want it to do that. The fact |
| 504 | 01:26:41 --> 01:26:48 | that if it went back up there, to me would indicate is not as bearish as I want it to be. Remember, I was telling you about the the buy side and sell side of |
| 505 | 01:26:48 --> 01:26:56 | efficiency with this one candle here. You want the buys that you're trying to take at the equilibrium price point or midpoint of it. Okay, which is what we |
| 506 | 01:26:56 --> 01:27:08 | call consequent encroachment, when it's an inefficiency or gap, a candlestick order block. The midpoint of that is mean threshold. Okay? I'm gonna segue right |
| 507 | 01:27:08 --> 01:27:17 | on into that in a second. But the signature is how it trades up to that level, and it should behave a certain way. It should behave a specific way that's in |
| 508 | 01:27:17 --> 01:27:25 | line in concert with the understanding that you think that the markets going to move one direction or the other. It's bearish. And I clearly told you on April |
| 509 | 01:27:25 --> 01:27:35 | 8, that wasn't a daily bias. Go back and listen to it. I told you, seasonally, we're going to be trading down in you know, in days and weeks, reaching into as |
| 510 | 01:27:35 --> 01:27:48 | much as may the halfway point of May. So nothing saying that this has created the low. And I'm not claiming the time of a crash. That's not what I did there |
| 511 | 01:27:48 --> 01:27:58 | on the eighth. And that's not what I set up today, I was giving you all these, these puzzle pieces, okay, using my experience, and showing you how to do this |
| 512 | 01:27:58 --> 01:28:10 | with live price action. Because there's, there's a strong contrast to having things wrote, presented in a video lecturing and supposedly condensing it. Just |
| 513 | 01:28:10 --> 01:28:19 | in this lecture today, I'm at the bare minimum of explaining it, you can't condense it any less than this. Because of the very subject matter of enough |
| 514 | 01:28:19 --> 01:28:27 | itself. You can't reduce it anything less than this. You can take out the stuff that I'm talking about my dogs, you know, all the others, you know, the one |
| 515 | 01:28:27 --> 01:28:36 | liners and cut not with you. But you're still left with everything else I've said. And you can't reduce it beyond that. I took it down to the Chrome. There's |
| 516 | 01:28:36 --> 01:28:44 | no, there's no bells and whistles. It's just, this is what it is. And and you won't learn how to do this just by watching today's lecture. You probably were |
| 517 | 01:28:44 --> 01:28:55 | encouraged because you watch it pan out live. But it's not going to be easy for you. It takes time. And a lot of time. Much more time probably and you're ready |
| 518 | 01:28:55 --> 01:29:06 | for. But answer this. If you could do this. Are you going to listen to any Tom, Dick and Harry on the internet? Say you waste your time learning it once you |
| 519 | 01:29:06 --> 01:29:14 | learn how to do it. You're not going to give a fuck what anybody thinks. You don't care what anybody thinks. Because having this skill set, it beats |
| 520 | 01:29:14 --> 01:29:22 | inflation. You don't care who gets in the office in White House. You don't care what their policies are, because you'll be able to outpace all that bullshit. |
| 521 | 01:29:22 --> 01:29:30 | And if you have to, you can uproot and move somewhere else. Okay, you're not trapped where you're at. You're not trapped in. Wherever you're at right now in |
| 522 | 01:29:30 --> 01:29:37 | life. You're not stuck there. Nothing's holding you there except for experience and opportunity. And you got to get experienced before you can recognize the |
| 523 | 01:29:37 --> 01:29:51 | opportunity. And when you have both of them. Then you have life changing events. You have things that completely uproot you in the levels of mundane mediocrity. |
| 524 | 01:29:53 --> 01:30:00 | And it elevates you to a level where you can produce and provide for your family better than you ever could imagine. Now you're probably looking at this Give me |
| 525 | 01:30:00 --> 01:30:07 | I would have had 15 contracts on my phone that probably something you did. You're wrong. If you did that you should have never done that. Don't take this |
| 526 | 01:30:07 --> 01:30:20 | when as a means to showcase and be like, Yeah, I'm going to do this all the time. Don't, don't do that. But this should have encouraged you. Because I gave |
| 527 | 01:30:20 --> 01:30:31 | you the tools, I've given you the reasons why, over live data, talking to you, therapeutic for me, because I've been wanting to talk to you all for a while |
| 528 | 01:30:31 --> 01:30:39 | now. But we had some things going on in our personal life and lost the mother and it's a lot better than it was my wife's doing better now. Thank you for |
| 529 | 01:30:39 --> 01:30:53 | concerns, but I want to talk about order blocks, and then I'm gonna close it. If you look at how I treat the market in terms of inefficiencies, and hang on, I |
| 530 | 01:30:53 --> 01:31:01 | gotta check the same because I don't know if I left the microphone. muted. Okay. It scared me. I was like myself, man, if I talked this whole time, I've done |
| 531 | 01:31:01 --> 01:31:02 | that before. |
| 532 | 01:31:07 --> 01:31:19 | If you've watched how I taught you, and show you today with the inefficiency, like the fair value gap, I'm going to just maximize this chart here. Okay. And I |
| 533 | 01:31:19 --> 01:31:32 | want you to think about how I engage the marketplace with inefficiencies like fair value gaps, but also some efficiencies in volume imbalances, okay? Volume |
| 534 | 01:31:32 --> 01:31:47 | imbalances. They are like the weakest form of a fair value gap. But don't take that as well. They're not worth it. I'm not going to bother with it. Because |
| 535 | 01:31:47 --> 01:31:55 | I've seen students in my comment section say, you know, I don't even bother with the volume of Amazonian why you bring them up. Okay, tell me you don't know what |
| 536 | 01:31:55 --> 01:32:03 | you're doing or what you're looking at without saying. So that's it's basically what she did there. So I'm going to maximize this chart here. And we're just |
| 537 | 01:32:03 --> 01:32:16 | going to look at the the five minute chart and scroll down a little bit over here. And before all this drop, I want to zoom into this price action. So we're |
| 538 | 01:32:16 --> 01:32:25 | really just focused on that. That's our dealing range. That's it we were outlining live. And I'm going to take just know that that 697 and a half level, |
| 539 | 01:32:25 --> 01:32:40 | that's the midpoint between the feeling range high in the dealing range low. And we would anticipate a break below that low later on. But that has to happen |
| 540 | 01:32:40 --> 01:32:51 | after. Now, if you're not writing these steps down, you are wasting your time. Because this is the recipe I use every single time. It does not morph into |
| 541 | 01:32:51 --> 01:33:00 | something else. It's not some kind of hidden thing that I'm hiding from you because I said this stuff in lectures. I've taught it to paid students. I have |
| 542 | 01:33:00 --> 01:33:09 | profitable students using this same process. And if you're not writing it down, you are wasting your time, and you will do it wrong and walk away thinking it |
| 543 | 01:33:09 --> 01:33:20 | doesn't work. Okay, you watch me say it today live, is that scamming you? As this is what I did for six years behind a paywall. And I asked my students every |
| 544 | 01:33:20 --> 01:33:32 | single day just to take notes and pay attention in the ship panned out every single week. Not every day, every single week, I had a 90% strike, right plus. |
| 545 | 01:33:32 --> 01:33:42 | And I always said if I'm not doing this accurately in front of you, you go out there and you expose me and they never did it. Why? Because they saw what you |
| 546 | 01:33:42 --> 01:33:53 | watched today. They saw that if you're not inspired to learn this, okay, if you have some kind of stick in your Craw, where you're smart money concepts, you |
| 547 | 01:33:53 --> 01:34:01 | know, it's this that you know, thing. Don't watch any more stuff, go do something else, okay? Because I'm not going to sugarcoat anything. I'm not going |
| 548 | 01:34:01 --> 01:34:08 | to sugarcoat it, I'm going to tell you exactly the way it is. I don't care about your feelings. It's just the way it needs to be taught. This is the way it |
| 549 | 01:34:08 --> 01:34:17 | should be learned. And this is the process. If you do anything outside of this, you are not learning it correctly. I promise you, you will be frustrated you |
| 550 | 01:34:17 --> 01:34:27 | will not see the results. Okay, this is exactly how I teach my children. I tell them this is what it's gonna do. This is why you're doing it. This is why you're |
| 551 | 01:34:27 --> 01:34:37 | picking this high. This is why you're picking that low. Think about it. Was I ambiguous about anything today? None not one thing. Not one thing was ambiguous |
| 552 | 01:34:37 --> 01:34:55 | about now. That fair value got is above the equilibrium price point which is the midpoint between a range high in a range low. A gap is like this little shaded |
| 553 | 01:34:55 --> 01:35:05 | area here. Okay? A gap or inefficiency is always going to be measuring the middle point. And we'll call that consequent encroachment. Now, why did I name |
| 554 | 01:35:05 --> 01:35:14 | it consequently, parchment? Well, it's it's consequential to what you're expecting and price action for it to reach up into the midpoint of that |
| 555 | 01:35:14 --> 01:35:27 | inefficiency. And where's it encroaching to the midpoint, many times, you'll see a trade and reprice to the midpoint of a gap or inefficiency, and fail to go any |
| 556 | 01:35:27 --> 01:35:34 | higher. That's ideal. Remember, I was telling you about the daily chart, what that buys on a down Sell, sell deficiency. If you're trying to trade that as a |
| 557 | 01:35:35 --> 01:35:42 | bullish pdra, where it'll be a discount array where you're trying to buy, the best buys are going to happen from the midpoint to the high of it, you don't |
| 558 | 01:35:42 --> 01:35:49 | want to see a trade down in the lower part. Why? I know you some of you're thinking, I wish you would say why it's better to do that. You think I was gonna |
| 559 | 01:35:49 --> 01:36:00 | leave that out. Because if it stays open, that is a breakaway gap you want every time when you're trading in an inefficiency, you want to see that other half of |
| 560 | 01:36:00 --> 01:36:08 | the extreme of the range that creates that inefficiency or whatever you got, you want to see it stay open. Think about all the examples when I'm showing you I |
| 561 | 01:36:08 --> 01:36:17 | say ideally, it once is it should stay open here. I want to see this part of that stay open. Oh, that was an epiphany, wasn't it? That's like rocket fuel. |
| 562 | 01:36:17 --> 01:36:23 | Well, you should have taught like this for the first time ICT well, well guess what I had a lot of jokers in my mentorship and a lot of assholes on the |
| 563 | 01:36:23 --> 01:36:30 | internet rebranded my shit like not get to dirt, but he can't do it live. They can't tell you what's gonna happen before it happens. You can't be that precise |
| 564 | 01:36:30 --> 01:36:40 | with it. And that's why I taught the way I did. I gave just enough where I can string it together when I needed to. But students that did the work exactly what |
| 565 | 01:36:40 --> 01:36:49 | I promised, they got the results they're looking for. So it was I was always trying to balance out. You know, the assholes out there abusing what I'm |
| 566 | 01:36:49 --> 01:36:58 | teaching, and taking it and running with it and pretending it's theirs. And the students that should be forced to do it on their own anyway. Because once you |
| 567 | 01:36:58 --> 01:37:08 | earn it, and you work for it, using what I'm teaching here today, I can't call it back from you. No one can tell you it doesn't work. When you have it in your |
| 568 | 01:37:08 --> 01:37:15 | hands working with it removes all the uncertainty in it gives you clarity about what it is you're doing. I mean, think about this and think about what it's like |
| 569 | 01:37:15 --> 01:37:21 | when you sit down with a chart and there's nothing on it for the first time. It's like a foreign language like, What the hell am I looking at? How does this |
| 570 | 01:37:21 --> 01:37:30 | guy know what it's doing? Right. That's how it was for me when I first started. But today, I walked you through the process, I thought I told you specifically |
| 571 | 01:37:31 --> 01:37:44 | how to define a range that makes it a dealing range. If you're bearish and your bias is bearish, you want to see by side taken, even if it's by one tick, it's |
| 572 | 01:37:44 --> 01:37:55 | done its work. Then you want to see sellside taken once that happens. Now you have a defined range that is a dealing range. Why is it a dealing range? What |
| 573 | 01:37:55 --> 01:38:06 | makes it a dealing range? Because they're going to deal with the midpoint of that range? That's this level right here. So the algorithm will reprice at 830 |
| 574 | 01:38:06 --> 01:38:21 | right here, it's going to go up into that equilibrium price point here and seek a premium array. That's not a gap. That's a gap. So it trades into it. |
| 575 | 01:38:21 --> 01:38:29 | overshoots it. Are you going to get scared when it shoots up like that? Oh, it's going to keep going higher? No. Did you hear any kind of nervousness in my voice |
| 576 | 01:38:29 --> 01:38:39 | today? I'm in front of however many of you are here watching. I gotta look at it and see 9500 All you did I can see here. I don't know if that's the highest but |
| 577 | 01:38:39 --> 01:38:51 | yeah, that's a pretty good audience. You all can hear? Do I sound like I was nervous? No. Absolutely not. When you are trying to learn how to do this, you're |
| 578 | 01:38:51 --> 01:39:03 | gonna see that candle open up and trade bold face bullish like that, you're gonna think I'm wrong. And you need to change that mindset. Because if you're |
| 579 | 01:39:03 --> 01:39:16 | bearish, you want to time Judas swings formation, a 32 news drivers are coming out right here. The market opens and that candle trades down initially sweeps |
| 580 | 01:39:16 --> 01:39:31 | that low. Okay, that's wonderful. Now we have done what? What do we do? What do we do? We engage sell side. So now we have our range. It's defined now. So we |
| 581 | 01:39:31 --> 01:39:42 | can drop our fib here, up to that high. We're bearish so we're gonna see a Judas swing. We wait. We're not freaking out. Not run around and get on social media. |
| 582 | 01:39:42 --> 01:39:47 | See what this guy's doing right now. Make it on here and see what the number one day traders doing right now on YouTube. Let me see what this one's doing. Let me |
| 583 | 01:39:47 --> 01:39:55 | see what that one's doing. I can tell you right now they're not do what the fuck you saw the day. They're not doing that. They're not doing that. Okay. You watch |
| 584 | 01:39:55 --> 01:40:06 | the market rally up, because that's exactly what's going suck the retail trade traders in. Because there's a lot of folks are gonna see that low here, they're |
| 585 | 01:40:06 --> 01:40:16 | gonna want to buy it. Because why they think that that's that's support and they're gonna do what get burned, you're not trying to trade a breakout, that's |
| 586 | 01:40:16 --> 01:40:26 | not what you're doing. You want to see a Judas swing, which is opposed to direction you think the marks gonna go, that's that February 21, low, hundreds |
| 587 | 01:40:26 --> 01:40:40 | of handles away, not 10, not five, not 20 Hundreds of handles away. Remember, you want to grow and graduate to the point where you're barrier to entry for |
| 588 | 01:40:40 --> 01:40:53 | your trades, that trade has to yield potentially 100 handles, if you're trading index futures. By having that mindset and that that this is the minimum, I can |
| 589 | 01:40:53 --> 01:40:59 | only take a trade that affords me that much of a move, you're going to trade a whole lot less, that means you're gonna pay a whole lot more commissions. That |
| 590 | 01:40:59 --> 01:41:06 | means you're gonna relax a whole lot more between setups. Now, it won't feel like at the beginning, you're gonna feel like I'm missing everything. |
| 591 | 01:41:06 --> 01:41:14 | I mean, I could have took this 25 I think these for shit, man, I could have made 50 handles here, I could have done this, I could have done that you could. But |
| 592 | 01:41:14 --> 01:41:27 | you need to slow your roll cowboy. You got to learn how to control yourself. You have to learn, I just taught my private mentorship. Very specific element to |
| 593 | 01:41:27 --> 01:41:37 | managing expectations and controlling your impulses. Like you don't want to be going in here and trying to throw everything at the chart and whatever sticks |
| 594 | 01:41:37 --> 01:41:44 | that you're going to take to social media and say Look how smart I am. Because if you're trying to do that initially thinking that's what's going to encourage |
| 595 | 01:41:44 --> 01:41:53 | you know, what that's doing is it's tricking you into thinking that every situation must be like that. And then when you are trading the next setup in |
| 596 | 01:41:53 --> 01:41:59 | your charts, when nobody can look over your shoulder, that's going to haunt you because you're like, Man, I can't live up to that last time I showed them, I |
| 597 | 01:41:59 --> 01:42:05 | can't live up to that can't live up to that. And then you're going to spend more time worrying about that nonsense, then going through the process of what I'm |
| 598 | 01:42:05 --> 01:42:13 | showing you here today. There's a whole lot of managing expectations, what you're going to do with this skill set while you're growing and understanding it |
| 599 | 01:42:14 --> 01:42:24 | and what your model is going to be. I kind of briefly started to go into seeing how many steps there was where we have this high, low, higher high, not by much. |
| 600 | 01:42:25 --> 01:42:39 | It was only a half a point two ticks. But that is a breaker is a bearish breaker. That might be your setup. For some of you like you know, I don't see |
| 601 | 01:42:39 --> 01:42:51 | breakers or I can't trust them. Okay, no problem. The fear Vega? Is it above the equilibrium price point? Yes. That's the one I pointed to in the Livestream. The |
| 602 | 01:42:51 --> 01:43:04 | market protracted higher. That's our Judas swing. I told you, Okay, it's done enough for me. Go back, that means it ain't taking a higher. So when you're |
| 603 | 01:43:04 --> 01:43:17 | gonna do we want to see it trade lower. It does. But then what happens? It trades lower takes that low out. So now we have a break in market structure. So |
| 604 | 01:43:17 --> 01:43:31 | inside of all this price action that would frustrate you. Why is this? marking time like that? What is it doing? My, my personal private mentorship students, |
| 605 | 01:43:31 --> 01:43:40 | they know what this is here. I talked about it a little bit, I glanced over it when I was doing Twitter spaces. And no, I'm not active on Twitter. So I'm not |
| 606 | 01:43:40 --> 01:43:48 | doing Twitter spaces. I'm not gonna ever do an outdoor space. But the This is better than Twitter spaces anyway. Because you're visually seeing me do it and |
| 607 | 01:43:48 --> 01:43:56 | pointing to things before it happens and explaining why it should be this way. And Twitter spaces. It's this mean going on. And that was me just basically |
| 608 | 01:43:57 --> 01:44:03 | talking because I needed to talk. Here I'm doing two things I'm talking because I want to talk and I want to teach and I'm also showing you stuff before it |
| 609 | 01:44:03 --> 01:44:11 | happens. But in here, I want you to look at the bodies of the candles in here, you see that? These are this whole section of price action. If we look at that, |
| 610 | 01:44:12 --> 01:44:24 | here, and that's your lowest body in here, all this consolidation right in there. See that? That's on a five minute chart. If we take that and we go into a |
| 611 | 01:44:24 --> 01:44:38 | one minute chart. When you go to a physician, a doctor, you go into him or her and you say I have an ailment. Okay, something's bothering something is hurting |
| 612 | 01:44:38 --> 01:44:50 | me. I have some swelling. I have, you know, a discoloration, something's not right, that warranted you to go see this professional and they're gonna look at |
| 613 | 01:44:50 --> 01:44:57 | you. And they're gonna tell you stick your tongue out. They're gonna check your pulse and new blood pressure and look in your eyes and check your reflexes. |
| 614 | 01:44:57 --> 01:45:06 | Okay, that's them doing a weekly checkup a weekly chart checkup on the macro, okay. And if they can't determine anything from that, then they're going to do |
| 615 | 01:45:06 --> 01:45:18 | the next thing which is go below the weekly chart and daily and the daily is going to be asking you to describe what you're feeling inside. That's like the |
| 616 | 01:45:18 --> 01:45:28 | daily chart, giving you an internal perspective of what that daily weekly chart is over the course of five days. Now, if they can't ascertain what the root |
| 617 | 01:45:28 --> 01:45:33 | cause of your ailment is from that, then they're going to ask you to pick themselves up or take blood from you, and they're gonna check your fluids, |
| 618 | 01:45:33 --> 01:45:44 | they're gonna check your, your chemical, they want to see what you have inside going on. Okay, that's intraday. So right now, that's what we're doing here, the |
| 619 | 01:45:44 --> 01:45:54 | physician is looking at the lower timeframes, to get a feel for what it's telling them. As a technician, as a trader, when we're looking at price action, |
| 620 | 01:45:54 --> 01:46:03 | we're doing the same thing. So we want to look at these little areas here where there's a problem, what's going on, it's not moving, but it should remember, it |
| 621 | 01:46:03 --> 01:46:17 | should be moving lower. But why isn't it moving lower? It's waiting for something. What's it waiting for? 930 opening bell. So all of this right here is |
| 622 | 01:46:17 --> 01:46:29 | time distortion. That means you have to submit to where you entered, where your initial stop loss would be, I'm going to go back to that in a second. Let me |
| 623 | 01:46:29 --> 01:46:42 | finish this part. And we'll go back up to the five minute chart. But all of this in here, because of the weighting element that needs to be worked through. Okay, |
| 624 | 01:46:42 --> 01:46:52 | we had a 13 news driver here, we went up to the premium array, swept it one more time, they bumped the high here. So now the market should go where lower, but it |
| 625 | 01:46:52 --> 01:47:01 | goes lower just to take up the low and in this chopping back and forth. This is where I watch live streamers. Okay, and look at your notes when you're in trade, |
| 626 | 01:47:01 --> 01:47:08 | too. If you're being honest, and you're journaling correctly, these are the times where you're writing down in the journal, I had to really work hard to get |
| 627 | 01:47:08 --> 01:47:17 | through that period of time between 830 and 930, waiting for the market to move in my favor. And I had to wait 30 minutes to do it. It was uncomfortable, but |
| 628 | 01:47:17 --> 01:47:27 | I'm glad I did it, you're recognizing that it was hard to do. But you're also rewarding yourself in your journal that you stuck to it. And while it was |
| 629 | 01:47:27 --> 01:47:37 | uncomfortable, it was not enough to change your mind. It wasn't enough to make you so scared to close the trade. You stuck with the process. And there's gonna |
| 630 | 01:47:37 --> 01:47:49 | be times when you do this over months and years that you won't feel that I guess nervousness or uncertainty, you just know that this is what you have to go |
| 631 | 01:47:49 --> 01:48:03 | through. It's normal for you to feel that. Okay. So what we would look for if you're down in the lower timeframes that low in that low, you see that the |
| 632 | 01:48:03 --> 01:48:13 | market drops below here. We don't need it to trade below that. Yeah, it's already done that here. Everything is geared for to break lower. Every time |
| 633 | 01:48:13 --> 01:48:32 | after that stop run right there. Every high was lower. Lower than that one. lower than that one. lower than that one. lower than that one. You see that? So |
| 634 | 01:48:32 --> 01:48:42 | all it's doing is giving a signal to smart money that everything's the way it's supposed to be. And every single time we're inside this range in here, they're |
| 635 | 01:48:42 --> 01:48:52 | adding more to their shorts. And retails hoping that that was support and are trying to buy and they're looking at ICT videos on binge watching for five |
| 636 | 01:48:52 --> 01:49:00 | minute crash course on ICT learn ICT in five minutes. Oh, well, this is that this is that gap. So when it trades down here, let's go long. You didn't hear me |
| 637 | 01:49:00 --> 01:49:09 | talking about going long today. You hear me talking about that at all? Oh, well, here it is. It's going down and trading into that gap again. Now that's the one |
| 638 | 01:49:09 --> 01:49:23 | is going to go up? No. But watch what it does. It does break below these lows here on that candlestick. And then the market trades back up into a bearish |
| 639 | 01:49:24 --> 01:49:37 | order block this candle in that candle together. That is an area where inside that range of the market can touch that area once more. Treat it like the same |
| 640 | 01:49:37 --> 01:49:52 | way as trading into a fair value gap. Like what I showed you on the five minute chart up here that you're entering in there. This range right here. That's them |
| 641 | 01:49:52 --> 01:50:00 | getting in the last bit of opportunity in terms of timing, where they can go short. change that color Give me a second here |
| 642 | 01:50:08 --> 01:50:19 | I'll change this because it needs to be different because it's bother me. All right. So these are close candles, I don't really need that second one, because |
| 643 | 01:50:19 --> 01:50:31 | now I can see it. It's this one is shorter than that one. So this is the older one, because this is inside the range of the previous up close candle. What is |
| 644 | 01:50:32 --> 01:50:40 | an order block? What is it, because if you're listening anybody else, they have no idea what the fuck an order block is, okay? It has nothing to do with timing |
| 645 | 01:50:40 --> 01:50:55 | sales, it doesn't have anything to do with a ladder or depth of market or DOM. It's dumb, not dumb. The it's the change in the state of liquidity. Okay, it's |
| 646 | 01:50:56 --> 01:51:16 | where you are in the marketplace, and how it changes its delivery. Where it pinpoints a very specific time. It's specific elements that provide you a very |
| 647 | 01:51:18 --> 01:51:31 | unambiguous range in price where he can trade to it. Think of it the same way you do with what I taught today with the fair value go. If you're bullish in |
| 648 | 01:51:31 --> 01:51:40 | market trades higher and trades back down into the fair value got you want to try to key up an entry with all things being equal, and it's so bullish the |
| 649 | 01:51:40 --> 01:51:51 | equilibrium price point or if it's a Vega, it's the consequent coachmen, the halfway point. Or if it's a candlestick makes it waterblock. The midpoint is |
| 650 | 01:51:51 --> 01:52:02 | mean threshold, that's it's expected to at least try to trade into it halfway. Those halfway points are important because if it can go to just half of it or |
| 651 | 01:52:02 --> 01:52:12 | fall short of half of it when you're bearish, or go down to half of it, or trade just above halfway, and then go higher, it indicates a signature in terms of |
| 652 | 01:52:12 --> 01:52:21 | strength of the move. That gives you that little bit of detail to say, okay, yeah, I'm not only am I on the right side of the marketplace, and it's probably |
| 653 | 01:52:21 --> 01:52:32 | going to start moving in my favor. But it's really going to move in my favor, because it couldn't even trade to the midpoint. You see what I'm saying? It's, |
| 654 | 01:52:32 --> 01:52:44 | it's a diametrically opposed contrast to what I was saying about stock hunts, you want to see a stop on where it goes against your direction, because then it |
| 655 | 01:52:44 --> 01:52:52 | really gives you an indication that it's going to move a lot, because now somebody has been unseated and the only people that do that is the smart money, |
| 656 | 01:52:53 --> 01:53:03 | the smart money that will capitalize on someone else's missed opportunity. And then they ride a longer run higher or lower. Well, it's different when it comes |
| 657 | 01:53:03 --> 01:53:14 | to order blocks. You want to be able to see it not trade to the midpoint or mean threshold, but you allow for it. But your stop loss has to be outside the |
| 658 | 01:53:14 --> 01:53:28 | parameters of the order block. In this case, we have this up close candle here. Okay? If we can trade a trade up into it, like in here, where does that this |
| 659 | 01:53:28 --> 01:53:39 | range here, I'm gonna throw a fit. I'm gonna take this range off of the box to wait and see what I'm measuring here. This to hear that's midpoint, okay, or |
| 660 | 01:53:39 --> 01:53:53 | what mean threshold mean threshold measures at 17? Six, seven 8.75. Okay, so it's 8.75. What's the high of that candle right there? You're going to look at |
| 661 | 01:53:53 --> 01:54:05 | it right up here. Okay. What's the high of that candle? Oh, holy shit. What's the chances of that right to the tick? 30 you're not you're not, you're never |
| 662 | 01:54:05 --> 01:54:17 | going to not love it. It's still a beautiful thing to see. It's perfect. You can't you can't get any better than that. Can you improve on that? Can anybody |
| 663 | 01:54:17 --> 01:54:29 | improve on that? Nobody can. But at the time, they can hear us on Youtube teaching older bosses. Because then, but this order block here. There's a |
| 664 | 01:54:29 --> 01:54:41 | certain caveat that needs to be applied to this okay. What is that? When I spoke earlier in the lecture, I I taught volume imbalances and what is the volume |
| 665 | 01:54:41 --> 01:54:47 | imbalance volume imbalance is any timeframe where you have to |
| 666 | 01:54:54 --> 01:55:09 | candles immediately, right next to each other. It's like like this. Now these form with bullish price runs when it's buy side delivery, or bearish runs when |
| 667 | 01:55:09 --> 01:55:16 | it sells side delivery means movement higher or lower. Taking the wicks out of the equation, because that's not what we're referring to when we're talking |
| 668 | 01:55:16 --> 01:55:25 | about volume imbalances, volume imbalance is the difference between the candle that you're looking at, and that one prior to it, okay, so it's only a two |
| 669 | 01:55:25 --> 01:55:38 | candlestick or two time interval. That's a more specific way of defining it to subsequent immediate candles or time intervals that have a measurement of the |
| 670 | 01:55:38 --> 01:55:51 | open or closing price that do not touch. See that. Now if there's no wick being shown in the delivery of the candlestick, or when the candlesticks paint on your |
| 671 | 01:55:51 --> 01:56:00 | chart, they you know, by theory, you can have a candlestick like this, where there's the highest high and the lowest low, here's the open and close. It's |
| 672 | 01:56:00 --> 01:56:10 | rare, but it happens. But what we're looking for is the difference between the bodies, okay, so if there's ever a separation between the two, like this, and |
| 673 | 01:56:10 --> 01:56:19 | the wicks can have this like he could do, it's not going to line up, because it ain't gonna line up, it's not gonna be in the center of that I'm not gonna |
| 674 | 01:56:19 --> 01:56:28 | monkey around with it. So the which could come all the way down into this area here. So it could eventually be viewed as it's overlapping. And the wick of this |
| 675 | 01:56:28 --> 01:56:38 | candle could go all the way up to here. But my I, in my, I'm training you as a student to look at that separation between the bodies, because the majority of |
| 676 | 01:56:38 --> 01:56:50 | the volume of trading is done inside the body of the timeframe that you're measuring. Okay. Not numerically in terms of, okay, if you pull up a volume |
| 677 | 01:56:50 --> 01:56:59 | profile, I'm going to look and see there was more contracts traded here versus here. So he's bullshit, I'm talking about the volume of smart money's trading. |
| 678 | 01:56:59 --> 01:57:06 | See, they're not, they're not going in where you think they're going in. They're going in where I'm teaching you they're going in it, I'm teaching you that you |
| 679 | 01:57:06 --> 01:57:15 | don't know that. I'm behind a barrier where I can only go so far to explain certain things. And I can't go past that. And that pisses a lot of you off. And |
| 680 | 01:57:15 --> 01:57:22 | because I don't do that, and I won't do that. I'm labeled A scammer, but how many times you watch me doing this stuff. On Twitter, we did all time every |
| 681 | 01:57:22 --> 01:57:32 | woman came up being called out explained what was going to happen. But this is a volume imbalance. So what you do is you have to incorporate this little range in |
| 682 | 01:57:32 --> 01:57:47 | price action. That has to be factored in your analysis. Now that might add act as a one more instance where it can trade up into it, and it could add another |
| 683 | 01:57:47 --> 01:57:58 | partial for a pyramid larger position. Or it could be it's going to trade up to that and that's my exit. Or it could be I have to use this as that's my third |
| 684 | 01:57:58 --> 01:58:07 | pdra And I'm bearish so now I have to put a stop loss above this. So where were the stop loss need to be it needs to be above the candlesticks Hi, that forms |
| 685 | 01:58:07 --> 01:58:16 | this volume imbalance which would be this candlestick right there. It this candlestick need not be a swing high, it could be another high over here, it |
| 686 | 01:58:16 --> 01:58:25 | wouldn't look like you would pick that candle. But it's the same framework I use for what a fair value. So it's shares similarities and characteristics for |
| 687 | 01:58:25 --> 01:58:34 | managing and employing it for entry partials. And now I'm introducing how to use it for stock management. So if you're using this as an order block, there's |
| 688 | 01:58:34 --> 01:58:42 | nothing wrong with that. But you just can't just say, well, that's my one trick pony. It answers everything for me, no, your entry needs to be inside that |
| 689 | 01:58:42 --> 01:58:52 | candles range, yes. But you also have to define the risk because now you have a volume imbalance that's inside this candle here right before the this two |
| 690 | 01:58:52 --> 01:59:01 | consecutive candles. But we learned that this is not important because this one's the entirety of the range. Let me say it slower and simpler. This up close |
| 691 | 01:59:01 --> 01:59:12 | candle is not relevant in terms of defining a order block. This candle is high is above this candle high. So we don't need to refer to this. So that's why I |
| 692 | 01:59:12 --> 01:59:21 | mentioned that range with the box showing you that up close candle is the order block. It does trade up into the volume imbalance. But that volume balance can |
| 693 | 01:59:21 --> 01:59:29 | do what remember when I taught him lectures on Twitter, and remember what I taught on live sessions and lectures in the YouTube channel volume imbalances, |
| 694 | 01:59:29 --> 01:59:41 | you have to be what flexible, they can pass through them and be used multiple times. So because that is there, you have to define the risk with okay, what's |
| 695 | 01:59:41 --> 01:59:47 | the candle that creates that volume imbalance the high end of it, it's this candle. So your stop would have to be where if you're going to use that as your |
| 696 | 01:59:47 --> 02:00:02 | entry. Your stuff has to be above this candle is high by one tick. So that would be 89 or I'm sorry 8850 and see what the highest you 88.25 is the high. So |
| 697 | 02:00:02 --> 02:00:15 | 88.50, that's your stop loss. And your Phil would be ideally using the opening price, which is 77 and a quarter to about 10 handles. That's, that's really |
| 698 | 02:00:15 --> 02:00:32 | small for NASDAQ. Like that's really small. So that's why I taught in month. Four, my old age is kicking down and we 52 this year, I think it was month four |
| 699 | 02:00:32 --> 02:00:42 | in the mentorship, you can find on the playlist in the YouTube channel, where I teach the pdra matrix, and I show you where all the PD arrays exist and how they |
| 700 | 02:00:42 --> 02:00:52 | nest together and what order they form. You do not see me introduce the volume imbalance in there. Why? Because the volume imbalance can appear in form |
| 701 | 02:00:52 --> 02:01:04 | anywhere in the spectrum of your dealing range. But they all are influential. So if you have a volume imbalance inside of your dealing range in the team, the |
| 702 | 02:01:04 --> 02:01:13 | timeframe and timeframe that you're trading off of, you have to extend them to the right, because they will absolutely have an influence on price. And how do |
| 703 | 02:01:13 --> 02:01:22 | you use that with managing staff? You have to factor in the fact that yeah, price should only go into that volume and bounce. But the rules for using it is |
| 704 | 02:01:23 --> 02:01:34 | you have to allow for static price action. Remember, you can color outside the lines, especially during high impact news driver days like today was. So your |
| 705 | 02:01:34 --> 02:01:44 | stop loss has to be here. Okay, so I have literally given you a clinic today. I told you what's going to happen for happened. I told you why it's gonna happen. |
| 706 | 02:01:44 --> 02:01:53 | I told you the timing of it. explain where the exact height of the session was going to be with that fair value gap on the five minute chart? Did it color |
| 707 | 02:01:53 --> 02:02:03 | outside the lines? Yes. Does that indicate or promote the idea that the concepts are flawed or don't work? Absolutely not. It was exactly what I outlined today. |
| 708 | 02:02:04 --> 02:02:14 | Exactly. And all you little pissy, lancets make these YouTube videos about me are stuck dealing with it. So let's go a little bit more in depth about |
| 709 | 02:02:14 --> 02:02:23 | OtterBox. And then I gotta do something because I'm fasted, and I'm hungry, and I need to eat. So let's get this business off. You get some extra credit here. |
| 710 | 02:02:24 --> 02:02:40 | 20 minutes past myself. So stay in leave at 10 to charge it's five minute chart, let's go on to that. Alrighty, then. Excuse me. Alright, so now we have that |
| 711 | 02:02:40 --> 02:02:52 | fare bag right here. Okay. I want to say this, and then we're gonna finish with this business here on waterblocks. But we have the February gap I pointed to |
| 712 | 02:02:52 --> 02:03:06 | live, before we traded up into it, that I said it's done. It doesn't need to do anything more. It's done. It's done enough for me. Now, if you're using that as |
| 713 | 02:03:06 --> 02:03:19 | your entry strategy, or if that's your model, okay? It overlaps with multiple things here, it overlaps with these consecutive closed candles prior to this |
| 714 | 02:03:19 --> 02:03:28 | rotation lower. And that shift in market structure below that low there. So you got to go back inside all this price action here. Where's your up close candle? |
| 715 | 02:03:29 --> 02:03:39 | You can't use just this one. Because you're not getting the full picture. Because if you're a domain and it trades all the way back up to the low of that |
| 716 | 02:03:39 --> 02:03:48 | candle, you're gonna miss trades. You're gonna miss them. Okay, so how can you manage risk appropriately? How can you still engage the market using an order |
| 717 | 02:03:48 --> 02:04:01 | block correctly, and it's author me, I can tell you right now, this is what you do. Okay, the up close candles that are in succession here, one after the other, |
| 718 | 02:04:01 --> 02:04:03 | that entire range has to be defined. |
| 719 | 02:04:05 --> 02:04:17 | That's, that's one entire range. Now, you don't know. And I'm not going to be able to teach this part of it to you. So I give you the easiest low hanging |
| 720 | 02:04:17 --> 02:04:24 | fruit objective on how to incorporate them in your trading. You may come away with this discussion today. So you know what, I've been waiting for more |
| 721 | 02:04:24 --> 02:04:31 | discussions about waterblocks. And I'm not sold on the idea, I'm just gonna stick with fair value, or I'm just going to stick with mom's 2022. Or I'm going |
| 722 | 02:04:31 --> 02:04:39 | to stick with the silver bullet. That means that you're mature. That means that you have grown in your understanding and you practice what I preached in this |
| 723 | 02:04:39 --> 02:04:49 | lesson earlier. Don't let me influence you to do something outside of what you grew uncomfortable doing. And change something that already works for you. Poor |
| 724 | 02:04:49 --> 02:04:56 | undermine your development up to a certain point or if you're in a trade or if you're about to take a trade. Don't let my expectations about the marketplace |
| 725 | 02:04:56 --> 02:05:03 | because you don't know what I'm trying to trade for. You don't know what I'm aiming for. You don't know if That's just one entry point to a larger position |
| 726 | 02:05:03 --> 02:05:11 | size I'm going to build as it keeps moving in a particular manner. So because I'm not going to teach you or tell you what I'm doing with my trades, that's |
| 727 | 02:05:11 --> 02:05:18 | always going to be a factor. So don't let me ever influence your trades ever. If you've done your homework, you've done the math on it, you're willing to take |
| 728 | 02:05:18 --> 02:05:28 | that risk that the outcome be based on your management, your adherence to it, and your credit is deserved. At the end of it, whether it be good or bad, and |
| 729 | 02:05:28 --> 02:05:38 | you can't say it's my fault that you made the money. And you certainly can't blame me when you don't make money. So this range here, we have the high and the |
| 730 | 02:05:38 --> 02:05:51 | low. Okay, that is your range for a bearish ICT order block, okay, in that range. |
| 731 | 02:06:00 --> 02:06:09 | graded? So we have the up close game, we're not measuring this low here. Why don't you Why don't you use them that low ICT? Because it's not an up close |
| 732 | 02:06:09 --> 02:06:16 | candle. And it's the timeframe we're using here is a five minute, why am I using the five minute chart because it's a high impact news driver day, and you're not |
| 733 | 02:06:16 --> 02:06:27 | allowed to trade with anything less than a five minute chart on a news impact event that's high impact. So in your economic calendar, you can use Forex |
| 734 | 02:06:27 --> 02:06:39 | factory dot coms, you can use each kind of day calendar, you can use anything else out there, okay, but it has to be something that's accurate. So those are |
| 735 | 02:06:39 --> 02:06:50 | the two I've used forever. And they'll serve you well. So this uploads candle, that is the low end of your bear shorter block. And then the high end is where |
| 736 | 02:06:50 --> 02:07:02 | the last up close candle, its highest. Okay. And now we put the lower quadrant, the midpoint, which is mean threshold and upper quadrant in the high. In an |
| 737 | 02:07:02 --> 02:07:12 | ideal world, just like the same logic when I'm using my fair value gaps, okay, when I'm trading inside of a box on unbalanced or sells on an efficiency, the |
| 738 | 02:07:12 --> 02:07:34 | the scope is the same. Okay? Ideally, I want to see a sell form between the low and mean threshold that's the, that's the ideal, if you want to call it optimal |
| 739 | 02:07:34 --> 02:07:43 | area of entry inside a range that is an order block. If you are listening to time, they can hear his mentorship on YouTube or anywhere else. And they say |
| 740 | 02:07:43 --> 02:07:49 | their last up close candle is your order block. It's not always that that's why I've been telling you all you guys don't know what you're talking about. You |
| 741 | 02:07:49 --> 02:07:57 | don't know what you're talking about. You're learning today, and you'll be seeing all kinds of shit all over the unit now. But I thought I was gonna come |
| 742 | 02:07:57 --> 02:08:06 | here teaching today. So this is where you want to be looking for your shorts. Can it trade all the way up here yet? What happens if you enter in here and it |
| 743 | 02:08:06 --> 02:08:14 | stops you out, you just took a trade prematurely. And you wait and see does it give you more indication that it wants to go lower, but it means to leave the |
| 744 | 02:08:14 --> 02:08:24 | premium side that makes this this range. So if it goes up there, you're gonna have to wait for to make a low, break the low and then the next inefficiency |
| 745 | 02:08:24 --> 02:08:32 | after that, because then you have what a market structure shift inside the range that acts much like what a dealing range. So your order block is what used to |
| 746 | 02:08:32 --> 02:08:43 | dealing rage. But it's very specific. With this part. What I'm about to show you right now, this is what makes an order block an order block, okay? You're gonna |
| 747 | 02:08:43 --> 02:08:50 | learn what this is today. And then anytime you see people putting shit up on Instagram or their mentorships, or you had the multilevel marketing boys trying |
| 748 | 02:08:50 --> 02:09:02 | to teach you what they think is an order block. They have no idea where we're going to take this range here from the low to the high, halfway point, that |
| 749 | 02:09:02 --> 02:09:12 | little area here. That's a sweet spot. That's your that's your point of where the best of the best entries are going to form. So in this range here, what do |
| 750 | 02:09:12 --> 02:09:27 | we have? Well, we have a breaker that's in the lower area to lower half of waterblocks range. We have the fair Vega here. The one I'm pinpointed for it |
| 751 | 02:09:27 --> 02:09:39 | happened. And we also have the optimal trade entry. How many things are there saying that this is gonna go lower? Multiple Right. Any one of them could be |
| 752 | 02:09:39 --> 02:09:53 | your unique trading model. Is any one of them better than the other? No. No, none of them. None of them have any just distinct advantage over the other. So |
| 753 | 02:09:54 --> 02:10:01 | as I mentioned when I was teaching my paid students when they come to the realization that all of my setups that when I'm taking a trade, I don't just |
| 754 | 02:10:01 --> 02:10:10 | have one thing saying I'm taking that trade. See, some of you don't realize I'm answering the question that a lot of you have been asking me. Why did you pick |
| 755 | 02:10:10 --> 02:10:21 | that and not this because I have a confluence of the things that I use and can employ as a trader, to get into a trade, I don't just have one of my tools, |
| 756 | 02:10:22 --> 02:10:34 | saying is a trade. I have multiple things saying, this is a trade. See, when I first started, I was that insecure, 20 year old, that had had to prove himself. |
| 757 | 02:10:36 --> 02:10:46 | And I had to constantly give myself the assurance that I would have setups that can be trusted, because I hurt myself so many times, trusting books in people |
| 758 | 02:10:46 --> 02:10:54 | I've read about on the internet, and tried to do certain things. And I tried to use indicators. And those things hurt me. I put faith in things that were not |
| 759 | 02:10:55 --> 02:11:06 | really valuable. And I would beat myself up thinking that it was me that was doing it wrong, when it was the underlying horseshit that I was trying to adhere |
| 760 | 02:11:06 --> 02:11:15 | to when none of it works. There is a such there's such a thing as technical science, and you're seeing it today, we're talking about very specific elements |
| 761 | 02:11:15 --> 02:11:29 | that repeat every single day, every single day, they repeat, but you may not have the gearing mentally to try to trade the market in that direction. So |
| 762 | 02:11:29 --> 02:11:37 | that's why I tell you in the beginning, don't hold a bias, because you're going to be wrong most of the time in the beginning, what you want to see and study is |
| 763 | 02:11:37 --> 02:11:46 | every time there's a volume imbalance that forms when a volume imbalance forms, market, note it. Remember the one I showed you here, go back and listen to that |
| 764 | 02:11:46 --> 02:11:55 | time, around 920 or so in the in the live stream. That small little volume of bounce form. And I told you when it was trading my eyes right there, I want to |
| 765 | 02:11:55 --> 02:12:06 | see how it behaves there. What they do is overshot it by a little bit, and then boom. That's experience that's things that my eye jumps to they're called |
| 766 | 02:12:06 --> 02:12:19 | signatures. Okay, that's a smart money concept that's being expected to behave a specific time in a manner in which the bias is deriving the outcome. It's |
| 767 | 02:12:19 --> 02:12:29 | directing the outcome rather. So the things that you have to hold on to harvest and like wrap your arms around and close your eyes, they come hell or high water |
| 768 | 02:12:29 --> 02:12:39 | until I'm proven wrong, this I'm sticking with this. That's bias. That's what you frame with the market when it's not trading on the weekend. You either do |
| 769 | 02:12:39 --> 02:12:48 | that after Friday's close or before Sunday's opening, you have to come to your bias before then, if you can't come to a bias, which is you trust, don't trade |
| 770 | 02:12:48 --> 02:13:01 | on Mondays, let Monday's frame the I guess the little nudge that you might need to get into a better favored outcome for bias that way you can have a little bit |
| 771 | 02:13:01 --> 02:13:11 | more information be willing to let the Monday trade without you. Okay, so if you were utilizing this fair value gap here as the entry as I was outlining today |
| 772 | 02:13:11 --> 02:13:22 | that someone else focusing your attention on there on the live stream where would you stop have to be not this can't be this high? Somebody's like, Oh, he's |
| 773 | 02:13:22 --> 02:13:30 | gonna point now go back and listen to the rules of the fair Vega This is the Canelo state that creates the high in the fair Vega in other words this |
| 774 | 02:13:30 --> 02:13:42 | candlestick slow is the high of the fair Vega this candlesticks high is the Hi, I'm sorry, I'm sorry. Sorry, as I said, I mean, I think I said this candlestick |
| 775 | 02:13:42 --> 02:13:55 | we widen that candlesticks low is the high is the high watermark of that shaded area which makes my inferior Vega this candlesticks high is the low of the fear |
| 776 | 02:13:55 --> 02:14:08 | of a guy. So the candlestick that makes the barrier high in a bearish Vega, that candlesticks High Plus one tick is your stop loss? Well, that's a lot. So a lot |
| 777 | 02:14:08 --> 02:14:17 | of pips, I can't or that's a lot of points, whatever, then don't take the trade or trade with smaller leverage. How's that for logic? But your, your, your |
| 778 | 02:14:17 --> 02:14:30 | protocol, when you're starting out like it was with mine? How much can I make? How much can I make? And how much do I have to trade to make that? And how much |
| 779 | 02:14:30 --> 02:14:47 | margin do I have to trade with? Versus how can I manage the risk, the mental anguish that it's going to put me through because I don't have much experience |
| 780 | 02:14:47 --> 02:14:56 | when I'm first starting. So therefore I have to do what trade with the smallest of leverage. And don't look at that as it's a weakness. That is a strength. |
| 781 | 02:14:57 --> 02:15:06 | That's a strength. It's like when people join the young men I did the same thing when I was younger, when I joined world gym, and I wanted to be like, Lila |
| 782 | 02:15:06 --> 02:15:14 | brada, you know, I want to have a physique like him. And I was like, Well, I'm going to, I'm going to get the maximum weight. And I'm gonna work out for four |
| 783 | 02:15:14 --> 02:15:21 | hours. And then I was sore for a week, and I couldn't get back in the gym. But I thought that that's what it had to be done. Big weights, long training sessions, |
| 784 | 02:15:21 --> 02:15:32 | know when I did, measured routines and started eating more protein and doing all those other things, listening to lectures that are not getting to the point. |
| 785 | 02:15:33 --> 02:15:40 | See, y'all have tick tock mentality you want shit given to you like that. And it's already two days late. And you want to make any money you want to I can't |
| 786 | 02:15:40 --> 02:15:52 | do it. See, I'm a dinosaur. I'm a Gen X, or we're the last generation that the real generation because we did shit that y'all with Melton, we went through |
| 787 | 02:15:52 --> 02:15:53 | stuff |
| 788 | 02:15:54 --> 02:16:05 | in trading is gonna be hard. And you have to have rules. You have to only operate inside of these rules, these boundaries. And any results outside those |
| 789 | 02:16:05 --> 02:16:14 | boundaries should not be measured. Because they are a direct reflection on you not fucking listening. You're doing things wrong, you're crossing the yellow |
| 790 | 02:16:14 --> 02:16:28 | line drive in too fast. And what's the recipe for that? Accidents, damage death and you think something's gonna be different in your trading? Somehow it's gonna |
| 791 | 02:16:28 --> 02:16:36 | be different. No, it's not gonna be any different. It's gonna be fast and furious. And you're gonna blow your account and how fast can you go out and buy |
| 792 | 02:16:36 --> 02:16:48 | a new fund that account how fast can you refund that account if it's real with real funds they should be weighing heavily on your initial actions as a |
| 793 | 02:16:48 --> 02:17:00 | developing students. So I've given you a lot here today I taught you how to use the fair value gap and order blocks for managing risk managing the entries |
| 794 | 02:17:00 --> 02:17:13 | where's the best entry strategy for using an order block when Okay, when do you use the last up close candle before the down move in price if you're looking for |
| 795 | 02:17:13 --> 02:17:18 | a bearish order block is something you're probably thinking I wish he would have said I heard you how the hell do you do that |
| 796 | 02:17:24 --> 02:17:33 | he's really my mind is weird. Alright, so we have a price run. Okay, that may have a series of green candles are up close to my up close candles are green |
| 797 | 02:17:35 --> 02:17:45 | you'll have a series of up close and then maybe one or two down close candles and then you'll have a down close game right before your last up close candle |
| 798 | 02:17:46 --> 02:17:55 | okay, if there's a break in this for instance let's say this candlestick right here was a down closed candle or would be a Black Candle for my charting then I |
| 799 | 02:17:55 --> 02:18:03 | would have used that candle as my bearish order block and none of this down here would have been effective for it how how's that for simplicity real simple in |
| 800 | 02:18:03 --> 02:18:15 | it. But if you ever have a series of immediate consecutive candles, you have to define the range that all of those candles make divided in half divided in |
| 801 | 02:18:15 --> 02:18:25 | quarters and the best setups are going to form below mean threshold which is the middle of the entirety of the multiple candlesticks that make up my ICD bearish |
| 802 | 02:18:25 --> 02:18:42 | order block. So also, the the importance of if you're buying down close candles, and you're treating them as a bullish order block, you absolutely do not, not |
| 803 | 02:18:43 --> 02:19:02 | not buy a down closed candle that's outside of the range that just broke. Okay? Never Never Never do that. Okay, because you don't have the experience to know |
| 804 | 02:19:02 --> 02:19:14 | if that range being broken to the upside is going to be sustained. You don't you don't want to do that. So what you want to focus on is this need the trendline |
| 805 | 02:19:14 --> 02:19:14 | thing here |
| 806 | 02:19:20 --> 02:19:24 | as I say this I'm done. Okay. I'll give you extra so shouldn't be mad |
| 807 | 02:19:31 --> 02:19:31 | I'm on |
| 808 | 02:19:41 --> 02:19:52 | all right, in terms of price, generically speaking, if you think this is the this is the part that's important. If you think that the market is likely to get |
| 809 | 02:19:52 --> 02:20:11 | up to say here, okay. It's not worrying about price right now. But ICT, you got your insurance and teaching you some if you believe that markets gonna go up |
| 810 | 02:20:11 --> 02:20:19 | here, and we traded, and now we created a dealing range, and I've already defined how to determine the dealing range, but your bias says it's gonna go up |
| 811 | 02:20:19 --> 02:20:25 | here, okay? In this run here that you're dealing range, splitting that in half |
| 812 | 02:20:31 --> 02:20:46 | like that, where is the ideal entry points for a order block? Is it down here? Or up here? |
| 813 | 02:20:52 --> 02:21:00 | If you're watching this is pre recorded, and you're not like not not live, pause the video and think about free answer. Everybody here live, I'm forcing you to |
| 814 | 02:21:00 --> 02:21:12 | wait. Alright, let's see here. Um, that's about enough time, you want to see a down closed candle in the upper portion of this range right here. So it would be |
| 815 | 02:21:12 --> 02:21:12 | like this |
| 816 | 02:21:21 --> 02:21:22 | in that area |
| 817 | 02:21:28 --> 02:21:42 | that's your area where you would look for a down closed candle in here. Okay. caveat, if. Now, this is an amplification of the lesson of me teaching the pdra |
| 818 | 02:21:42 --> 02:21:51 | matrix, my students that paid me did not get this lesson. So you're getting something fresh out the oven. If there is a fair value gap, on the timeframe |
| 819 | 02:21:51 --> 02:21:52 | you're looking at. |
| 820 | 02:21:57 --> 02:22:13 | In this range, or the lower half, you do not buy a down close candle in the upper portion. Because it won't hold. It will drop down and reprice to the |
| 821 | 02:22:13 --> 02:22:22 | inefficiency, that many times we'll have a order block associated with the fair value got those two together will be confluence, and you're in a discount here. |
| 822 | 02:22:23 --> 02:22:25 | And then you can reasonably expect to see the market do. |
| 823 | 02:22:34 --> 02:22:45 | That, okay, so that's why it's important that you start with one PD array, learn it. But it's not going to stop there, you're going to you're going to need to |
| 824 | 02:22:45 --> 02:22:57 | know the pdra matrix, even if you don't use them as entries, understanding what they are and how they form inside of a price run. It's part of the whole process |
| 825 | 02:22:57 --> 02:23:07 | of determining why do I buy that down? Close candle and not that one? Why do you buy that Faraday gap and not this thing? How are you able to pick this pdra? And |
| 826 | 02:23:07 --> 02:23:18 | you ignore this over here? I just taught you today? See, there's certain things that are germane. There salient points that are useful, because they're my |
| 827 | 02:23:18 --> 02:23:26 | concepts. I know, I know what I'm doing with them. You don't know what you're doing with them. You only have an introduction to them. But an introduction? |
| 828 | 02:23:27 --> 02:23:39 | Still is lightyears beyond the scope that retail stuff works far less than this will this stuff is it's finite is rules to it. What's what Support Resistance |
| 829 | 02:23:39 --> 02:23:50 | you're going to trade? Which Support Resistance? Are you going to trade? How do you define your support? If it's retail driven? What defines that for you? |
| 830 | 02:23:51 --> 02:24:00 | Everybody's gonna have a different diagonal trendline. Everybody's gonna have a different support and resistance level. Unless we take our attention to |
| 831 | 02:24:00 --> 02:24:10 | everybody uses one timeframe. It's the XYZ timeframe. It's the 15 minute chart, it's the hourly chart, if all of us were forced to say, okay, by a show of |
| 832 | 02:24:10 --> 02:24:21 | hands, or multiple choice, whatever. Is this the support you you would use as your support for that timeframe and say we're looking at hypothetically a 15 |
| 833 | 02:24:21 --> 02:24:29 | minute timeframe. If that's the case, and we're all forced to give our personal opinion about what is support, what is resistance, we'll probably have a closer |
| 834 | 02:24:29 --> 02:24:38 | clustering around one or two levels that would be predominantly viewed as support resistance. But how many of you are trading off of a 15 minute chart? |
| 835 | 02:24:40 --> 02:24:47 | Not most of you. Most of you're looking at one minute charts because posing your mind thinking that the one minute chart is the answer to everything. And it's |
| 836 | 02:24:47 --> 02:25:00 | not. It's an answer to reduce risk and give you more entries. But more entries are not a requirement to do well. You want one good one. And that's If this over |
| 837 | 02:25:00 --> 02:25:09 | here teaches you it probably went right over your head. You probably think oh man this is what is he talking about? Right but the people have been doing this |
| 838 | 02:25:09 --> 02:25:16 | for a while. They just had an epiphany right there they're understanding now why they're down close candles they thought was a bullish order block went right |
| 839 | 02:25:16 --> 02:25:27 | through it and went lower but still respected the dealing range didn't go lower than here. How do you know when to buy it down here and when to buy up here? |
| 840 | 02:25:27 --> 02:25:41 | He's buying in a premium Why is he buying in a premium his video says I just told you why and when funding ICT so anyway, only for this year because an ICT |
| 841 | 02:25:41 --> 02:25:56 | is not ICT no more at the end of this year. ICT is just Michael. Just hobby. Just daddy and just boring. Oh, me. I can't wait. But that's the business for |
| 842 | 02:25:56 --> 02:26:11 | today. I hope you all learn something from it. I had a lot of fun today. I enjoyed hanging out with y'all. And let's check this out. We'll get yes real |
| 843 | 02:26:11 --> 02:26:11 | quick. |
| 844 | 02:26:18 --> 02:26:27 | You know, this shows you I'm a noob with TradingView. Now if this was trading official TradeStation I would know exactly what I'm doing here. But I just |
| 845 | 02:26:27 --> 02:26:43 | removed the pro price chart that shows up and now I can't get the bars to come back. Look at this old guy. I guess we're not seeing that. Are we? Let's do |
| 846 | 02:26:45 --> 02:26:47 | this. Yes. |
| 847 | 02:26:55 --> 02:27:01 | timeframes 30 seconds, support a 15 year time frame. maximize it. |
| 848 | 02:27:08 --> 02:27:22 | Alright, so we've taken out the February 21 lob, I want you to take your attention here. See how clean that is up there? I'm not saying it's gonna go up |
| 849 | 02:27:22 --> 02:27:31 | here today. It can. I'm not trading. I'm going to have lunch when I'm done. And now I'm going to relax the rest of the day because I've talked myself on my |
| 850 | 02:27:31 --> 02:27:46 | horse. I had no voice tomorrow. So you'd be like no glad. But the point is this. We've, we've moved low on this for a series of days, if this is going to be a |
| 851 | 02:27:46 --> 02:28:01 | long term continuation to the up trend. Okay, I would want it to stop today, and then go higher. If it can't do that, if it can't stay above the Lotus form |
| 852 | 02:28:01 --> 02:28:14 | today, then we're gonna go lower. If it keeps the low intact today and tomorrow, we don't break today's low. This is the draw on liquidity for me in terms of |
| 853 | 02:28:15 --> 02:28:26 | looking at where it could go, but I'm not trading it. Now, why would I go out and say that? Because there are times where like I was explaining to students |
| 854 | 02:28:26 --> 02:28:39 | that I worked with on Monday live. When I'm managing expectations, or I don't know, very specific elements of what I want to do on that session or that |
| 855 | 02:28:39 --> 02:28:48 | trading day, I put parameters on prices. Okay, I would like to see it do this. And if it does this or if it does that, or it fails to do this, then it will |
| 856 | 02:28:48 --> 02:28:57 | give me clarity about what I want to see happen in price. There are times when I'm sitting down in front of charts. And I'm like, I don't know what it wants to |
| 857 | 02:28:57 --> 02:29:05 | do. Because is there's a plethora of things that could pan out from where it's at right now. So what does that mean? It's not high probability. So if it's not |
| 858 | 02:29:05 --> 02:29:17 | high probability, I have no business trying to cosign an expectation or forcing a view on price action, that probably isn't going to pan out. So I want to, I |
| 859 | 02:29:17 --> 02:29:25 | want to wait for times where everything's really loaded in my favor. I have many things suggesting it's going to behave a certain way. And that's pretty much |
| 860 | 02:29:26 --> 02:29:36 | what you should do. You know, here's every time when I'm telling you want to do specifically, it's that demand more things that are in your repertoire, to |
| 861 | 02:29:36 --> 02:29:45 | suggest the market's going to behave a specific way. And if you have just one thing saying that's probably not going to happen, then you probably shouldn't |
| 862 | 02:29:45 --> 02:29:58 | engage it with real money or a funded account, or even a demo. Because you're you're feeding something that has the low threshold of painting out. And that |
| 863 | 02:29:58 --> 02:30:06 | that's basically the trying just to see what happens in the demo and don't set I mean, let me see if I buy this, what will happen if I did that, and you went |
| 864 | 02:30:06 --> 02:30:16 | into it with a, you don't really care, you're interested to see what happens, you might have an expectation of it working out. But when it does pan out, you |
| 865 | 02:30:16 --> 02:30:25 | elevate that moment, to a, I know exactly what I'm doing. I'm a rockstar. Or if it loses, you're like, Well, I wouldn't have took that trade anyway, you see how |
| 866 | 02:30:25 --> 02:30:33 | that's toxic. But you spend months and weeks doing that initially. And then you think, Well, I'm tired of messing around with this. Let me put my own money in |
| 867 | 02:30:33 --> 02:30:39 | there. I will try to find an account. And then I'll see if I can make it work that way. Like that's going to change things. The only thing you're going to do |
| 868 | 02:30:39 --> 02:30:46 | is discover that you have poisoned your mindset, doing all the wrong things in the beginning, which is why I teach at nauseam and tell you things that you need |
| 869 | 02:30:46 --> 02:30:53 | to know how you should think. And you don't want to hear it because you know better. Well, if you know better than you wouldn't listen to me or anyone else |
| 870 | 02:30:53 --> 02:31:06 | what you but you're you're listening to me. So anyway, I just want to compare and contrast real quick. Dow See how it's already one up above its relative |
| 871 | 02:31:06 --> 02:31:22 | highs in stack? Same thing, okay. Okay, so if we create the low one, again, to to frame why I would say that, why should I even imply that if it's going to go |
| 872 | 02:31:22 --> 02:31:31 | higher, I would demand that it creates the turning point today and today's low be intact. Because if you look at the low here on this, that and then we made a |
| 873 | 02:31:31 --> 02:31:47 | lower low there, you see that? If you look at it on es see the divergence there? Says SMT divergence. And then finally, when we're talking about really big |
| 874 | 02:31:47 --> 02:31:58 | divergence, and then because it was unwilling to make the lower low, or even get close to how the ES failed to make a lower low, this is the relative strength |
| 875 | 02:31:58 --> 02:32:11 | leader to the upside. And that's why already traded closer to its relative highs than that of ES and or NASDAQ. Okay, so anyway, that's the business folks, I had |
| 876 | 02:32:11 --> 02:32:19 | fun, I'm hungry, I'm gonna go get some eat and hope you had some fun. And I hope you learned something. If you didn't take notes. This is one that you want to go |
| 877 | 02:32:19 --> 02:32:29 | back through again in this lesson, and maybe take screenshots of what I was showing you. And I'm confident it'll serve you well. If you can't frame the |
| 878 | 02:32:29 --> 02:32:39 | market, like I was showing you here today, chances are, you probably shouldn't be trading that day. If it's not this clear, if it's not, so you can cut and dry |
| 879 | 02:32:39 --> 02:32:45 | black and white, it's just right down to the Chrome, this is what it should do, then you're probably in a market environment that you shouldn't trade in, you're |
| 880 | 02:32:45 --> 02:32:55 | not going to be surprised when you lose money. Or you shouldn't be surprised because this market was absolutely set up to do everything and all the things |
| 881 | 02:32:55 --> 02:33:02 | that I outlined today. There was nothing spoke to you that was ambiguous. There was no flip flopping I didn't have both sides of the marketplace. I took your |
| 882 | 02:33:02 --> 02:33:11 | attention right to the very core essential moves, where it should turn and there was nothing extra to okay except for all the things that were supportive in |
| 883 | 02:33:11 --> 02:33:18 | terms of your your trade, psychology, your development, how to practice and how you should think about things and it reminded me so then Texas can't train heat |
| 884 | 02:33:18 --> 02:33:20 | and Robin's cup. So until I talk to you |