ICT YT - 2024-04-10 - Tape Reading April 10 2024
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-04-20 09:20
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Outline
05:49 - NASDAQ market data and potential sell-off.
- ICT struggles with OBS, identifies sellside resting at 18,055.
07:47 - Market manipulation and price action analysis.
- Ict is watching for price action before the opening bell to anticipate market move.
- Ict uses PPI and CPI reports to build a premise for market narrative.
- The speaker believes that trying to predict market movements based on economic reports is foolish and not consistently possible.
- The speaker outlines a strategy for trading during the opening range after 9:30 AM EST, contingent on the market reaching a certain low and then expanding downward.
- The speaker identifies a key level of support and explains why it's important (13:42).
- The speaker highlights the difference between a "real order" and a "void of liquidity" in the market (14:30).
16:05 - Market manipulation, Fed intervention, and potential retracement.
- ICT argues the market is artificially inflated and due for a retracement.
- ICT warns of impending market collapse due to Fed intervention.
20:03 - Trading funded accounts, growth of traders overcoming model.
- ICT predicts that as more traders learn and grow, the current model of funded account companies will become unsustainable.
- Matt is disciplined in his trading, using a small cookie cutter approach with 20 accounts.
23:06 - Trading strategies using higher timeframe analysis.
- The professional trader focuses on low-risk, high-reward trades with a clear premise for price action.
- The trader looks for a low threshold objective, taking one pound of flesh and moving to the sidelines until the next opportunity.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of studying higher timeframe charts (monthly, weekly, daily) to gain market perspective and experience.
- ICT advises traders to focus on the weekly chart for setting weekly objectives and trading in the direction of the majority of the week's price action.
- Woodie explains the importance of understanding higher timeframe liquidity pools and how they can be used to make trading decisions.
- Woodie emphasizes the need to discern between reaching for liquidity and inefficiencies in the market, and how experience plays a crucial role in this process.
31:15 - Trading strategies and market mechanics.
- The speaker discusses the importance of using stop losses and limit orders in trading to manage risk and avoid over-trading.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding market structure and using simple mechanics to identify potential trading opportunities.
34:05 - Trading strategies and the importance of patience.
- ICT argues that support and resistance are not as simple as they seem, requiring a complex analysis of parameters.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of patience and time in trading, particularly when using a one-minute chart to trade weekly chart objectives.
- The speaker acknowledges that new traders may struggle with submitting to the time required for weekly chart objectives to be met, and may look for excuses to exit the trade prematurely.
37:33 - Trading strategies and identifying potential price movements based on market analysis.
- ICT teaches students to trade with a bullish fair value gap mindset, emphasizing the importance of measuring and managing risk.
- ICT encourages traders to take profits gradually, using partial profits and consolidation periods to build experience and trust in price action.
- The speaker believes that blindly copying someone else's trades without understanding their reasoning is stupid.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of trusting one's own research and analysis, rather than relying solely on others.
- ICT: Large funds, larger traders bearish, timing cyclicals, technicals.
- Market reaching for short-term premium to sell into, attacking key levels of support.
45:21 - Trading strategies using price action and risk management.
- Trader emphasizes importance of studying price action and time to make informed trading decisions.
- Trader seeks repetition in trading, targeting areas of inefficiency.
48:49 - Trading and risk management strategies for beginners.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of flexibility in trading, even when it means changing one's mind.
- ICT advises against chasing price action without proper risk management.
52:29 - Technical analysis and trading strategies using weekly charts.
- The speaker warns that relying on shortcuts and trying to speed up the learning process can be detrimental to development.
- The speaker's teaching method involves creating a unique model for each week, with high probability of success, but requires earning through experience.
- ICT predicts large funds will accumulate positions, go against them with consolidation below low.
- The speaker believes that the market will likely retrace by 50 handles in the near future.
- The speaker aims to trade based on the market's movement, with a focus on reaching a premium or discount level.
59:31 - Trading strategies and risk management using opening range analysis.
- Trader anticipates market will work towards a low, but may retrace before reaching it.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding the opening range and midpoint price level.
- The speaker anticipates potential draws on liquidity but still aims to trade back up to the minimum level of the opening range gap.
01:03:45 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- Trader Steve likes to buy gaps, while Trader Jane shorts when the market trades back up into the gap.
- Steve's model is based on opening gaps, while Jane's is based on retracing and running lower.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of having a stripped-down model that fits one's personality and way of thinking.
- Steve's trading approach involves buying gaps with the expectation of a stop-loss below the entry level.
01:07:55 - Trading mindset, approach, and patience.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of self-awareness in trading.
- Traders must be honest with themselves about their strengths and weaknesses.
- Consistency is key in trading, and method hopping can lead to inconsistency.
- ICT: FFL, watch for price to reach low point of range and potentially sell short.
- ICT: Market may draw down due to large pool of liquidity and big sell stops at low point.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding market sentiment and identifying opposing views to make informed trading decisions.
- The speaker uses the metaphor of a lion in the tall grass, waiting for an unsuspecting gazelle to fill their belly and feed their cubs.
01:16:40 - Trading strategies and identifying potential price movements based on market analysis.
- ICT discusses the stock market, recent losses, and potential future movements.
- ICT discusses the opening range and its significance in trading, highlighting the importance of understanding the level of liquidity and the potential for price movements.
- ICT analyzes the trade setup and the potential for a breakaway gap, indicating the possibility of a short-term premium objective.
01:21:08 - Trading gaps and risk management.
- Trader analyzes gap openings, considers risk management and leverage.
- ICT suggests trading the fair value gap by scalping or waiting for a spike and then going short.
- Risk management is crucial when taking a short position, with the stop loss set at the midpoint of the gap.
01:24:43 - Trading psychology and risk management.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of risk management in trading, particularly in embracing uncertainty and being prepared for potential losses.
- The speaker discusses the need to have a clear understanding of problem areas and potential detrimental factors before entering a trade.
- The speaker warns against unrealistic expectations in fitness and trading, emphasizing the importance of preparing for discomfort and uncertainty.
- The speaker advises against giving up too easily when faced with adversity, citing the need to embrace uncertainty and figure out what works best for long-term success.
- ICT explains that a turtle soup trader could sell short above a high, risking one quarter of 1% of their account.
- Jane, a turtle soup trader, could enter a trade to profit from a market failure to reach the midpoint of a large gap.
01:32:47 - Trading psychology and risk management.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of self-awareness in trading, recognizing one's own impulses and weaknesses to make informed decisions.
- The speaker advises against relying solely on someone else's model or approach, instead encouraging individuals to develop their own based on personal study and experience.
- ICT describes a situation where they were paralyzed with fear during a trade, unable to make decisions due to emotional response.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of limiting risk and avoiding emotional decision-making in trading.
01:37:19 - Trading challenges and personal growth.
- ICT emphasizes personal responsibility for trading success.
- ICT emphasizes self-awareness and simplicity in trading, rejecting victim mentality and social media lies.
01:41:07 - Self-awareness and journaling for traders to improve their mental discipline and avoid costly mistakes.
- ICT emphasizes self-discipline and accountability in trading.
- ICT reflects on past trading decisions, seeking self-awareness and emotional control.
- The speaker journals to identify areas for improvement and to encourage themselves, rather than complaining or beating themselves up.
- The speaker recognizes the compounding influence of negative self-talk and seeks to reframe it as a growth process.
01:48:11 - The challenges of trading and the importance of self-control.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of self-discipline in trading.
- Trader struggles with impulsive decisions, seeking excuses to avoid effort and responsibility.
01:52:02 - Trading and risk management in the financial market.
- The speaker believes the market is corrupt and complex, with easy money to be made through limiting losses.
- The speaker calculates risk based on potential profit, rather than minimizing loss, and uses leverage to maximize gains.
01:55:01 - Managing anxiety and negative thoughts through journaling and self-awareness.
- ICT shares personal struggles with anxiety and toxic thinking, and recommends self-reflection and coping skills to overcome.
- Person reflects on negative thoughts and media consumption, recognizing the impact on mental well-being.
01:58:06 - Trading mindset, risk management, and self-awareness.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of self-talk and encouragement in journaling and overcoming challenges.
- The speaker shares personal experiences of lying to children and journaling to help them trust themselves and their abilities.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of having a clear mindset and pre-market analysis for successful trading.
- The speaker warns against reacting impulsively to market movements without a clear plan or expectation.
- The speaker warns against letting trading results dictate one's mindset and actions.
- The speaker's friend lost money and became traumatized due to their trading approach.
02:06:06 - The importance of independent decision-making in trading.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of self-reliance in trading, rejecting outside influence and opinions.
- He encourages listeners to focus on their own research and analysis, rather than following others blindly.
- ICT emphasizes confidence and independence in trading, dismissing outside opinions.
02:10:13 - Importance of self-reliance in trading.
- ICT warns against seeking external validation in trading, as it can lead to losing control and consistency.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of self-influence in achieving goals.
02:13:59 - Overcoming negativity from others to achieve success in trading.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of taking risks and elevating one's life, despite the potential challenges and criticisms from others.
- The speaker compares the difficulty of learning a new skill to that of brain surgery, highlighting the potential for growth and achievement.
- ICT warns against seeking validation from unsupportive others in pursuit of success.
- The speaker's family members are resistant to their success and try to discourage them from pursuing their goals.
- The speaker believes that cutting these people out of their life is necessary for their own mental well-being and success.
02:20:34 - Early internet use and its limitations.
- ICT reflects on the early days of the internet, AOL, and online communication.
02:22:56 - The importance of encouragement and persistence in trading.
- ICT shares personal struggles and encourages others to persist in pursuing their goals.
- The speaker reflects on their own journey to success and the lack of reliable guidance in the industry.
02:26:40 - Trading and risk management strategies.
- ICT: Focus on low end of shaded area for potential fair value gap.
- ICT: Wait for candle to close before considering further downside.
- The speaker discusses the importance of managing expectations in trading, particularly in the face of outside influences.
- The speaker emphasizes the need to be guarded against flattering opinions that can distract from the trading model.
- ICT values specific feedback over generic praise, finding it more meaningful and useful.
- ICT encourages viewers to take ownership of their results and be proud of their efforts.
02:34:32 - Journaling for traders to manage emotions and track progress.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of journaling for traders, citing its therapeutic benefits and potential for self-reflection.
- ICT encourages traders to label entries in their journal with "encouragement" and "overcome" to track progress and celebrate successes.
02:36:59 - Avoiding impulsive trading decisions during drawdowns.
- ICT shares personal experience with drawdown management, emphasizing the importance of staying disciplined and trusting the process.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of slowing down and thinking critically during trading.
02:40:55 - Trading strategies based on market analysis.
- The speaker believes the market is too enticing to trade below the two recent lows, and will likely create a fair value gap if it does.
- The speaker wants to see the market show a willingness to expand and dig down below the low of the opening range gap before taking any trades.
- ICT explains how to approach trading based on opening range gaps and news events.
- ICT prioritizes family obligations over trading, emphasizing the importance of family first.
- Ict is looking for specific time windows for entry, not always at a specific minute marker.
- Midpoint is an expectation for a reasonable return, indicative of trending or range day, and can help identify heavy or light market conditions.
02:49:31 - Trading strategies and risk management in the financial markets.
- Speaker discusses potential sell opportunities in a stock, citing gap and opening range gap levels.
- The speaker explains why brokers increase margins, citing the risk of overleveraging and potential for quick profits.
- The speaker analyzes the opening range gap and wants to see a formation in the lower half to confirm a bearish setup.
02:54:06 - Stock market sentiment and potential price movements based on liquidity and short positions.
- Engineer predicts bearish price action due to liquidity injection above highs.
- ICT identifies a pool of liquidity in the form of sell side near the low, with potential for price to reach beyond that level.
- ICT suspects that the market may need to go back and take out the high once more before reaching the target price.
02:58:12 - Commodity markets, Bitcoin, and trading strategies.
- ICT observes that most of the move happens before 10:15am, followed by a period of choppy price action.
- ICT identifies heightened risks due to geopolitical events, economic problems, and military response, leading to potential market volatility.
- The speaker discusses the importance of supply and demand factors in the commodity markets, particularly in cocoa.
- The speaker highlights the significance of backwardation in commodity markets, indicating a fundamental squeeze on supply.
03:04:26 - Cocoa market dynamics and potential impact on Bitcoin.
- Cocoa market expert discusses premiums, carrying charges, and technical alignment.
- ICT discusses sugar prices and their potential impact on Bitcoin, noting a previous move that destroyed Bitcoin on leverage.
03:08:03 - Cancer, loss, and grief.
- Man reflects on losing his mother to cancer, feeling at peace but struggling with personal life.
03:10:14 - Technical analysis and trading strategies using price action and bodies of price swings.
- The speaker uses the bodies of the price swings to measure the price run, and affords navigation within that range by utilizing and measuring the wicks.
- The speaker prioritizes using the bodies of the price swings over measuring the wicks, and sides with using the bodies even if the wicks don't align with expectations.
- ICT explains how to identify premium and discount levels in a trading range based on time and perspective.
- Knowing these levels can help traders make better decisions without relying on indicators.
- The speaker is analyzing the chart and identifying a potential short opportunity near a blue line (the largest pool of liquidity on the sell side).
- The speaker expects the price to trade down to the blue line and potentially beyond, but does not expect it to take out the high until the lows have been taken out first.
- ICT explains how to trade with a worst-case scenario mindset, using a pink shaded area on a chart as a reference point.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of being comfortable with being uncomfortable in trading, as the outcome is never guaranteed.
03:20:22 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- Trader anticipates retail traders getting stopped out, then enters trade.
03:22:44 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- The speaker discusses the challenges of trading in today's market, where there is a lot of give and take and it's difficult to make accurate predictions.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of having factors in line that build trust and increase the chances of successful trades.
- The speaker discusses their approach to trading, emphasizing the importance of being available during trading hours and limiting exposure to the markets.
- The speaker reflects on their age and how it affects their trading schedule, mentioning that they are now finding it difficult to stay up late for trading sessions.
03:27:01 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- ICT's wife interrupts live stream to discuss pool company, ending session.
- ICT outlines a trading plan for shorting a stock, including stop loss and take profit levels.
- ICT discusses the importance of being flexible in trading and how market conditions can change quickly.
Transcript
| 1 | 00:03:44 --> 00:03:49 | ICT: Audio CHECK AUDIO check. |
| 2 | 00:04:53 --> 00:04:53 | Are you check |
| 3 | 00:05:00 --> 00:05:00 | on |
| 4 | 00:05:12 --> 00:05:13 | do you check |
| 5 | 00:05:18 --> 00:05:43 | the check Good grief Good morning folks having some technical difficulties here with this OBS I have a little bit of a raspy voice today because of allergy |
| 6 | 00:05:43 --> 00:05:52 | season, so just make me do with it, okay. Alright, so real quick, let's put the risk disclaimer up here |
| 7 | 00:06:15 --> 00:06:30 | all right, so we have our NASDAQ, we're gonna be looking at NASDAQ and probably toggle between NQ and E S, for about about 90 minutes, so stay with you, it's |
| 8 | 00:06:30 --> 00:06:46 | around 10 o'clock. So we've had the initial data released at 830, I was trying to get this thing to start running, and wouldn't let me get the audio synched |
| 9 | 00:06:46 --> 00:06:56 | up. So if anybody uses OBS, you probably know what I'm referring to sometimes when you try to find or capture a window, so you can share what your screen |
| 10 | 00:06:56 --> 00:07:06 | should be showing. Or if you try to connect an audio device, it would it would populate in OBS, but it wouldn't actually do anything. So that's what I was |
| 11 | 00:07:07 --> 00:07:22 | battling, we have sellside resting just below the 18,055 level, it looks like it wants to sweep that the four hour drop up into that level below that they want |
| 12 | 00:07:22 --> 00:07:40 | to get overzealous. We have sellside right in here. So any animation below these relative equal lows. That's that level right there. Okay, so it's not much, it |
| 13 | 00:07:40 --> 00:07:52 | wouldn't take very much effort for it to get below here to reach below that. I'm wanting to watch and see how we behave this morning before the opening bell at |
| 14 | 00:07:52 --> 00:08:05 | 930 sets a lot of time between now. And then for price action to do a number of different things. In America comes to ppi or CPI number, there's, there's |
| 15 | 00:08:05 --> 00:08:20 | reports they're very difficult to anticipate what the move is going to be. So the way I do it, is I look for what it tries to do. And you probably gonna hear |
| 16 | 00:08:20 --> 00:08:32 | the puppies in the background because they're kenneled next to me. So if I don't have in the kennel delete chronal or Tommy Lee, the report that comes out for |
| 17 | 00:08:32 --> 00:08:49 | either PPI or CPI. I want to watch and see which liquidity they run for at the time of the release. Okay, so I like the buy side up here, here in here. Because |
| 18 | 00:08:49 --> 00:09:03 | I have not abandoned the long term bullishness of the marketplace. These reports are heavily manipulative, they're they're classically used to run out a major |
| 19 | 00:09:03 --> 00:09:12 | pool of liquidity. And then the other side of the coin is shown later in the day or the next day. So I'm not trying to build the case that we're going to go for |
| 20 | 00:09:12 --> 00:09:22 | any one particular liquidity before I've done it in the past. You know, I've done it when I was on Twitter, which I'm not on Twitter. I'm not on Instagram, |
| 21 | 00:09:22 --> 00:09:32 | by the way. There's people out there pretending to be me. The only social media I have is this here. Okay? So if anyone's talking to you pretend to be me. If |
| 22 | 00:09:32 --> 00:09:40 | I'm not talking to you audibly through my live streams here or from a video I posted on my YouTube channel, that's officially got little checkmark that's |
| 23 | 00:09:40 --> 00:09:56 | anecdotal, traitor. You're listening to someone that is pretending to be me. But I use these reports to try to build a premise to what I should expect. And then |
| 24 | 00:09:56 --> 00:10:03 | try to formulate a narrative. Why would the market want to go to a particular The price level. And this is all cluttered up. These are notes that they use, |
| 25 | 00:10:03 --> 00:10:16 | because I'm gonna try to use this time today to explain what I did the other day. But I got backed up with personal things. So what I'm watching for is does |
| 26 | 00:10:16 --> 00:10:26 | it have the interest to get down to at the very minimum, below here. And if it does, doesn't want to run below here and then does it want to come all the way |
| 27 | 00:10:26 --> 00:10:39 | back up and eat all the way back up into this to work into later in the week, where we attack all this up here, there's a lot of people have made money from |
| 28 | 00:10:39 --> 00:10:52 | this drop, if the weather this retracement here, back up into this high but not taking the high out. This I don't want to go so far say someone was smart enough |
| 29 | 00:10:52 --> 00:11:03 | to go short. Because if you're trying to try to have these types of reports, PPI CPI or anything like your FOMC report, you really are gambling. And that's not |
| 30 | 00:11:03 --> 00:11:17 | skill. That's game is no different from you sitting down the roulette table or backer rod or, you know. For the life of me every single time I try Remember, |
| 31 | 00:11:17 --> 00:11:26 | these things are called slot machines. You don't know the outcome of that, okay, and you don't know the outcome of what they're going to do, and how the markets |
| 32 | 00:11:26 --> 00:11:35 | gonna behave at these reports. So to try to pretend you do know, that's foolishness, okay. And I've been doing it long enough to know that no one's |
| 33 | 00:11:35 --> 00:11:46 | consistently able to do that part of this. And it's so heavily manipulated, there's better ways to trade, there's better time to take a trade. So what I do |
| 34 | 00:11:46 --> 00:11:57 | is I sit back and relax and watch and see what does it want to do. And anything that leaves after the fact. Okay, so it's been now 11 minutes or so, since the |
| 35 | 00:11:57 --> 00:12:06 | report has been released to the marketplace. And it's been a straight shot lower, it's interesting to see the how they have not as much as they dropped it |
| 36 | 00:12:06 --> 00:12:09 | here, they did not take out these lows here. See that. |
| 37 | 00:12:18 --> 00:12:34 | So I'll make a contrasting color. This is this is the very minimum, I want to see a trade too. And below that, if now if we take out this low. If we get below |
| 38 | 00:12:34 --> 00:12:44 | here, and we really expand down below that, I want to see does it want to have the ability to come back up, then back above this low, and then I'll look at |
| 39 | 00:12:44 --> 00:12:56 | some of this range in here, it may be as much as 50 to 60% of that range. That would be what I would expect. If it were do this now again, preface it by saying |
| 40 | 00:12:56 --> 00:13:06 | again, it's contingent upon it going through this low and then reaching below that low that what I'm about to say is what I would expect during the opening |
| 41 | 00:13:06 --> 00:13:16 | range after 930. So the opening range is between 930 In the morning, and 10am Eastern Standard Time. So whatever the local time is in New York, that's the |
| 42 | 00:13:16 --> 00:13:25 | time I'm referring to that's what the time is set down here as well. So if you are ever in doubt as to what you should be looking for in terms of time, it |
| 43 | 00:13:25 --> 00:13:31 | should always be I don't care where you live in the world. This is what your time should be set to. Okay, do not set it to your local time. Because you won't |
| 44 | 00:13:31 --> 00:13:40 | be able to follow the things I've outlined on this channel, in the notes in the presentations. And obviously during the live live commentary. You have to be |
| 45 | 00:13:40 --> 00:13:50 | able to do this stuff consistently. And find the routines and mannerisms that the price action usually tends to follow not always but most of the time. So |
| 46 | 00:13:51 --> 00:13:59 | with all that jawboning if we get below these lows and then stabbed below this level here, which is that low. What's this, what's so important about that? |
| 47 | 00:13:59 --> 00:14:10 | Well, we've already swept this low, this low went below here, and we created that low and this pass down did not take out that low. So there's a huge pool of |
| 48 | 00:14:10 --> 00:14:19 | liquidity in the form of sell stops. For anyone that has built in long positions. Prior to this low forming, maybe back here or even further to the |
| 49 | 00:14:19 --> 00:14:31 | left, they have moved their stop loss below that low. And they did not see that get traded to here, here here. And as of yet today, we have not seen a trade to |
| 50 | 00:14:31 --> 00:14:43 | it as well. So there's a lot of opportunity for the markets to seek liquidity lower than where we are if we can just get down to this level here. Okay, so it |
| 51 | 00:14:43 --> 00:14:52 | makes no makes no sense for me as someone that's studied price action for over three decades to anticipate the market just to stop here because that's where it |
| 52 | 00:14:52 --> 00:15:01 | stopped before because that's that's supporting resistance. I don't subscribe to that view. The idea is that if it's going to go down here it should reach below |
| 53 | 00:15:01 --> 00:15:09 | that, because there's real orders resting below that in the form of sell stops, just like there's a larger pool of liquidity here. So that's why I drew your |
| 54 | 00:15:09 --> 00:15:20 | attention from not just here, because these are relatively equal. And you can see that visually. Why do I sometimes point to a low or a high beyond the |
| 55 | 00:15:20 --> 00:15:27 | relative equal highs or lows? Well, it's because of this basis here. What are this outline? This is where you build a premise. Okay, if the markets in a |
| 56 | 00:15:27 --> 00:15:38 | hurry, like we've seen it move since 830. It's reaching for something, it's not buying and selling pressure, because who's really trying to get short ahead of |
| 57 | 00:15:38 --> 00:15:49 | that record? Nobody in their right mind is trying to do that. Okay. So and it's not a void of liquidity. But sometimes it's been taught, it is algorithmic, it's |
| 58 | 00:15:49 --> 00:16:01 | reaching aggressively driven by time, then price, always in that order time, then price, the move is not going to happen until it's been scheduled to move. |
| 59 | 00:16:02 --> 00:16:11 | That's what makes these markets highly manipulative. And they're absolutely controlled. They're not left to our whims and wishes. If we could muscle the |
| 60 | 00:16:11 --> 00:16:19 | market, collectively, we would have crashed the market, okay, or the market would have went to the stratosphere. Because those things are not seen and then |
| 61 | 00:16:19 --> 00:16:26 | are evident. And you study all these things for a period of time that's measurable, not just a weekend, or binge watch a couple videos and say a lot |
| 62 | 00:16:26 --> 00:16:36 | that you understand this. You got to study it in great detail, log, a lot of data, charts, screenshots, watch real price action, study it, and you'll see |
| 63 | 00:16:36 --> 00:16:50 | these mannerisms, they tend to repeat all around specific elements of time. And if we can collectively agree that the market is ranging here. Since March, we've |
| 64 | 00:16:50 --> 00:17:01 | been just hammering inside of this larger trading range. Now, even if we're going higher, say we're higher going into the end of the month going into May |
| 65 | 00:17:01 --> 00:17:11 | and then we get a respectable retracement, I'm not calling it a crash. I'm not calling it a bear market and the saying between now and mid May or so. I'm |
| 66 | 00:17:11 --> 00:17:22 | expecting something of a respectable retracement. And while that's not limiting, and only making an allowance for only going short, what I'm suggesting is is I'm |
| 67 | 00:17:22 --> 00:17:35 | not trying to get too permeable, but I'm not ignoring the fact that we could have four we're about to form an intermediate term high where it can retrace. |
| 68 | 00:17:35 --> 00:17:45 | Now it's an election year, things tend to go out the window in those years. So where we see classical support, not support seasonal tendencies. In the fall in |
| 69 | 00:17:45 --> 00:17:53 | the spring, where we usually get a long, protracted retracement in the spring going into the late summer months into fall making the fall low somewhere |
| 70 | 00:17:53 --> 00:18:02 | sometimes between last week of August, it's really, really bullish. And I don't see us having a really, really bullish market right now. All of this stuff that |
| 71 | 00:18:02 --> 00:18:11 | we're seeing with the market going on right now is absolutely 100% artificial. None of this move up is genuine. Okay. And I know some of you that trade stock |
| 72 | 00:18:11 --> 00:18:21 | and some of you are, you know, perma bulls, you'll want to argue and debate that and we can, we can agree to disagree, okay, but this market has been absolutely |
| 73 | 00:18:21 --> 00:18:28 | driven by the Fed. And we can talk about it until the cows come home, I'm not going to convince you if you're against the idea that but that's really what's |
| 74 | 00:18:28 --> 00:18:42 | going on, the Feds is pumping us up. At some point in the future, real soon. Things are going to have to sort themselves out. And it's being built up in a |
| 75 | 00:18:42 --> 00:18:54 | manner where when it does come home to roost, it's going to be fast and furious and bad. Okay. And it may not be tradable. It may be you know, in a manner |
| 76 | 00:18:54 --> 00:19:02 | where, you know, just you just smoked. And that's it. So I'm trying to balance all these things. Because if you look around in the United States, and things |
| 77 | 00:19:02 --> 00:19:09 | are not going like they should, and even Democrats are waking up and saying, You know what the hell is going on here. This isn't this isn't my country, what's |
| 78 | 00:19:09 --> 00:19:21 | going on here. And all these things, these policies, all these control measures that are being implemented in unconstitutional ways, things that are being |
| 79 | 00:19:21 --> 00:19:33 | changed financially new taxes and things that are being proposed to come against us. This Bastion that we're all basking in right now, which is trading, I |
| 80 | 00:19:33 --> 00:19:46 | mentioned in many Twitter spaces, that this isn't going to be exempt. You know, and it's nice for us to be able to sit down and watch these squiggly lines and |
| 81 | 00:19:46 --> 00:19:55 | come up with an idea where you know, we're trying to predict the future and somehow profit from that. That's a way to make money outside of the nine to five |
| 82 | 00:19:55 --> 00:20:04 | grind that they want everybody chained to and some of you are championing all these ideas about minimum wage being raised to $20. In California? Well, you |
| 83 | 00:20:04 --> 00:20:13 | know, that means your french fries and your hamburger is gonna go up a lot more, and everything else is gonna go up more. So you're not going to outpace it. It's |
| 84 | 00:20:13 --> 00:20:22 | designed to cause all kinds of difficulties. And some of you have noticed what I've also mentioned in the Twitter space, is that these funded account |
| 85 | 00:20:22 --> 00:20:32 | companies, have you noticed how some of them are having difficulty? And have you noticed that I have students that are raping them over and over and over again, |
| 86 | 00:20:33 --> 00:20:45 | that that can't go on for a long period of time, the more people that learn how to trade and are able to be consistent to me, and just a shout out to Matt |
| 87 | 00:20:45 --> 00:20:52 | treats by Matt, I saw your thumbnail, apparently, you're smashing it. Well done, lad. Well done. The |
| 88 | 00:20:55 --> 00:21:03 | that type of thing is unsustainable if the growth of the traders because let's be honest, okay, these folks are making their money from the resets and the |
| 89 | 00:21:03 --> 00:21:15 | purchases of the attempts to do so. And over time, traders that invest time and do their due diligence to learn how to trade these markets, they will overcome |
| 90 | 00:21:15 --> 00:21:29 | that model. They will, and especially if a small group of them are collectively doing the same type of thing if they have like a mind, a hive mindset. And |
| 91 | 00:21:29 --> 00:21:38 | they're doing those 20 accounts. And look at trade by Matt has been doing he's apparently he's only doing a small little sliver of a move. But he's doing it |
| 92 | 00:21:38 --> 00:21:47 | compounded by 20 accounts. And if you're doing that, and he's not aiming for a lot, which is exactly what I said before, and I'm saying he's trading my |
| 93 | 00:21:47 --> 00:21:55 | information. So don't take that take that out of context. But I'm saying, All you need is a small little cookie cutter, one little cookie cutter that mold. If |
| 94 | 00:21:55 --> 00:22:04 | you can find one thing that repeats for you, then you multiply that. And that's done by money management. Well, since you're not really trading with real money |
| 95 | 00:22:04 --> 00:22:15 | in these funded accounts, you're buying, you're purchasing the participation in up to and if my understanding is correct, if I'm correct, I did watch a video a |
| 96 | 00:22:15 --> 00:22:24 | month ago. And he was stating he was working with 20 accounts. I don't know the dynamics with I've never done a fun account, I never would do it either. But |
| 97 | 00:22:24 --> 00:22:34 | whatever he doesn't want to count it's being copied. And that small little move of $200 Less than three seminars or whatever, over 20 accounts, he gets it and |
| 98 | 00:22:34 --> 00:22:44 | then he stops. That's discipline. That's not a gambler, that someone is looking for their little modest cookie cutter sharp. I've used this analogy to a cookie |
| 99 | 00:22:44 --> 00:22:54 | cutter shark is like this little sea snake looking fish thing. It runs up on anybody, any fish, it's an ocean that it's its opportunity to eat something, it |
| 100 | 00:22:54 --> 00:23:02 | runs up, slams into, it bites a circle, piece of flesh out of its body and and runs away it don't snack and hang out and have a cookout, it's going they're |
| 101 | 00:23:02 --> 00:23:11 | hitting it, boom, certain strike is out, it's got his meals gone. That's what a professionally minded trader does. They're not in here trying to do 15 trades, |
| 102 | 00:23:11 --> 00:23:20 | they can go on social media and say, Look what I did. They're not in here trying to do feats and wonders to look like an ace in front of everyone. They're going |
| 103 | 00:23:20 --> 00:23:29 | in, they're taking one pound of flesh, therefore their pound of flesh, getting it done, and I'm leaving. They're not looking to see how many times they can get |
| 104 | 00:23:29 --> 00:23:38 | it right in a day. They're not trying to make a specific dollar amount for the dollar sake. They're looking for a low threshold objective of a very low hanging |
| 105 | 00:23:38 --> 00:23:48 | fruit objective. And when that's achieved, they're done. They move to the sidelines, and they wait for another day, another opportunity. And they're not |
| 106 | 00:23:48 --> 00:23:55 | in a rush to get in there. Just because of the new day the bell rang, it's 930 or it's been 30 minutes. And now it's done during its opening range. Now there |
| 107 | 00:23:55 --> 00:24:03 | has to be a trade or there has to be an entry for me because ICT said there's a fair value gap Silver Bullet trade between 10 o'clock and nine o'clock every |
| 108 | 00:24:03 --> 00:24:12 | single day. There is, but that might not be on the lower timeframe, less than one minute that you're studying. Or you might have might not have the aptitude |
| 109 | 00:24:12 --> 00:24:22 | to see it real time. You'll be able to see after the fact. And it'll probably be a means of frustration for you. Because you should have saw it in your mind. You |
| 110 | 00:24:22 --> 00:24:31 | just saw it real time when you haven't done this enough to have the experience to see it real time. And that's the part that that growing pain. A lot of you |
| 111 | 00:24:31 --> 00:24:38 | don't want to go through that. And there's no way around it. You can't circumvent that you can't shortcut. You can't buy a book or a course or someone |
| 112 | 00:24:38 --> 00:24:45 | else's reading or watching my videos and they're gonna give you the Cliff Notes version of it that this shit doesn't work. It does not work. They'll sell it to |
| 113 | 00:24:45 --> 00:24:54 | you like it is but you'll find out what the results it doesn't work like that. So you have to go through that grind. You have to go through it. So when we're |
| 114 | 00:24:54 --> 00:25:04 | looking at price action we're looking for number one There has to be a premise to why the price should be doing anything. And that gets back to should this be |
| 115 | 00:25:04 --> 00:25:14 | a large range day, should this be a small range day, should this be an index, basically, in decision day, where price is indecisive about where it wants to go |
| 116 | 00:25:14 --> 00:25:25 | higher or lower, okay? That takes some experience, you generally looking at higher timeframe charts, monthly, weekly daily, and getting a feel for what the |
| 117 | 00:25:25 --> 00:25:33 | market tends to do on those higher timeframes, it doesn't take very long to do that measure perspective or obtain that type of experience, you can usually |
| 118 | 00:25:33 --> 00:25:43 | Garner that by you three months of just learning how to trade and watching price action studying. When you move below that daily chart, and you drop into like a |
| 119 | 00:25:43 --> 00:25:53 | four hour chart, and then to an hourly chart, it's going to take you around three months just to get familiar with that timeframe in reference to what it |
| 120 | 00:25:53 --> 00:26:04 | does on the daily, the weekly and the monthly chart, and how all those things fit together. If you do all of your trades, all of your trades based on the |
| 121 | 00:26:04 --> 00:26:16 | framework, the premise and the narrative around that timeframe. Now, let me very, very specifically say what I just said, again, in different planar terms, |
| 122 | 00:26:17 --> 00:26:28 | if every trade that you're trying to take is either going long or going short, based on the information that you gathered, from the 60 Minute, one hour chart, |
| 123 | 00:26:28 --> 00:26:39 | and higher, you're gonna filter out a lot of all the things that you're probably getting beat up by right now. You see me my students, you see my teachings, |
| 124 | 00:26:39 --> 00:26:48 | where I'm using a one minute chart. But I'm taking for granted that you've already studied all of the core content, all of the lessons all the playlists, |
| 125 | 00:26:48 --> 00:26:56 | where I'm talking a lot about how I'm really looking at what that weekly chart should be trying to reach for expanding higher or lower, and I'm not trying to |
| 126 | 00:26:56 --> 00:27:04 | predict the closing price on the weekly chart. But I'm looking predominantly, if the markets likely to go higher on the weekly chart, even if it goes up higher |
| 127 | 00:27:04 --> 00:27:11 | to take out a high. I don't know if it's going to continue after it goes there. And I don't really care if there's a range of opportunity for me to see where it |
| 128 | 00:27:11 --> 00:27:21 | opens one Sunday, or using opening price at 930. On Monday, there's two opening prices there. Whatever one you want to use, you want to be highly, highly |
| 129 | 00:27:21 --> 00:27:28 | sensitive to what the market will likely do for the weekly range and you use this on the opening price. And that new week opening gap if it's there, extend |
| 130 | 00:27:28 --> 00:27:39 | that through all the way till Friday. Those points of data are going to be influential to what the price action is likely to do for that given week. But |
| 131 | 00:27:39 --> 00:27:51 | that's not taking into any account. what your experience level is going to refer to for is this day, part of a week that's going to be trending where it's going |
| 132 | 00:27:51 --> 00:28:02 | to have a lot of range that to trade to for in a week for weekly objective. So in other words, if if the weekly chart or the candlestick or range or bar for |
| 133 | 00:28:02 --> 00:28:11 | that weekly range, the highest highs and lows lower the coming week that you're about to trade in, if it has the potential to move 400 points, or 400 handles |
| 134 | 00:28:11 --> 00:28:23 | rather than that means that the majority of your focus should be trading in that direction, whether it be higher or lower. So if it's likely to move 400 handles |
| 135 | 00:28:23 --> 00:28:33 | for NASDAQ for that weekly candle. Now you don't know. And I don't know if it's going to literally move those same 400 handles in that one given weekly range, |
| 136 | 00:28:33 --> 00:28:43 | it might go a large portion of it, stop stall, retracing in the following resume and go into that continuation. And that's part of understanding what that |
| 137 | 00:28:43 --> 00:28:52 | monthly range is going to do. So all these things are fractal mindsets and little components, little small little cogs, it's part of the machine that we |
| 138 | 00:28:52 --> 00:29:03 | look at in terms of the press Continue. If it's going to keep reaching for a higher timeframe liquidity pool, you want to trade in that, that mindset, it may |
| 139 | 00:29:03 --> 00:29:12 | not be liquidity, you may have already taken liquidity. And now it's just going to reach for an inefficiency and then resume reaching for a an opposing pool of |
| 140 | 00:29:12 --> 00:29:22 | liquidity. And it sounds very complicated, but it's really not. What we're only doing is simply looking for the higher timeframe monthly and weekly to give us |
| 141 | 00:29:22 --> 00:29:33 | some clients some kind of inclination that the market wants to reach for some obvious stop, above or below the marketplace. And if there's any inefficiencies |
| 142 | 00:29:33 --> 00:29:41 | in close proximity, we have to account for that because it will want to go back into those points. And I'll talk a little bit about inefficiencies and such and |
| 143 | 00:29:41 --> 00:29:55 | I'll teach you really what I was using the other day when I recorded it. But this, this can't be they can't be emphasized enough that when I'm speaking or |
| 144 | 00:29:55 --> 00:30:08 | I'm showcasing something many times I don't do Good job of reminding you that I'm referring to something on a weekly or daily chart. Because I've beat it to |
| 145 | 00:30:08 --> 00:30:17 | death in all of my talks, where I repeat myself over and over again, it's, it's astonishing to see how many people leave comments saying, Woody, why are you |
| 146 | 00:30:17 --> 00:30:25 | doing this? Or why are you doing that, and those are the things I talk most about. And that's why I talk a lot, because I want to be repetitive. So that |
| 147 | 00:30:25 --> 00:30:32 | way, you're going to be immersed in it. And you're going to be saying what I'm saying right now, because you've heard me do it dozens of times in other |
| 148 | 00:30:33 --> 00:30:40 | lectures or teachings, so that way, you know it like in the back of your hand, and that's how it needs to be, you need to be bored by those details. Because if |
| 149 | 00:30:40 --> 00:30:48 | you're bored by him, then you know him, you know, like a book, you read 1516 times you knew the outcome, you know, the narrative isn't going to change, |
| 150 | 00:30:48 --> 00:30:53 | because you just spent three months away from that book, will price action is the same way. |
| 151 | 00:30:55 --> 00:31:01 | You're gonna get these little plot twists every now and then on the lower timeframes. But generally, on the higher timeframes, it's usually the same |
| 152 | 00:31:01 --> 00:31:11 | thing. It's usually always the same thing. It's reaching for a poor liquidity is reaching for some inefficiency above or below the marketplace. And you have to |
| 153 | 00:31:11 --> 00:31:24 | discern, this is the hard part, this is where a lot of experience comes in. Okay? Are we likely are we likely to stay in a range. And if we are, you have to |
| 154 | 00:31:24 --> 00:31:33 | avoid trying to get rich on all these moves if you're trying to enter? Okay. One of the things I found interesting watching folks that trade live or to do the |
| 155 | 00:31:33 --> 00:31:44 | live streams and whatnot, it's interesting to see how their, their expectations change based on the initial movement of their trade, once they enter the trade. |
| 156 | 00:31:45 --> 00:31:54 | Listen to how they talk. And if they show their face, wash their face, because they will wear their emotions, or they'll speak it, you'll hear the tone change, |
| 157 | 00:31:54 --> 00:32:02 | they'll be more talkative, or they'll get real quiet. That's their emotions being shown to you. Now they may try to say face and say, Well, you know, I'm |
| 158 | 00:32:02 --> 00:32:10 | just trying to focus, no, you're trying to find a way to breathe, because you're panicking. Because everyone's watching, everyone's able to see what you're |
| 159 | 00:32:10 --> 00:32:17 | doing. And you know, that they're judging everything you're doing whether if you're making money or not, you could be in a trade that's been profitable at |
| 160 | 00:32:17 --> 00:32:28 | time. And that many times is a cause and a reason for you to be cautious. And now it has already moves to an objective quicker, because you haven't put a |
| 161 | 00:32:28 --> 00:32:36 | limit order in. And you're not using a stop loss, because you're not showing that either. But it's moved too fast. And now you're thinking, Oh, no, this went |
| 162 | 00:32:36 --> 00:32:48 | way faster than I thought it would. Do, I hold it and get a really big lines win and be able to beat my chest in front, everybody said, Look at this, he saw your |
| 163 | 00:32:48 --> 00:33:00 | saw here live. But they didn't really detail all of that. And that's because you're you're placing too much pressure on yourself. So what I try to do is I |
| 164 | 00:33:00 --> 00:33:14 | try to teach very, very, very simplistic things looking for a stop run, that the market is very likely to run where an old low is and an old highs. That's simple |
| 165 | 00:33:14 --> 00:33:23 | mechanics of market structure. I mean, it goes without saying, if anybody's gonna use a stoploss on a long position, they're going to anchor to some recent |
| 166 | 00:33:23 --> 00:33:32 | swing low. And if it's a load, it has a very comparable load near noon, scrolling back to the left, then they're gonna see that as what they're gonna |
| 167 | 00:33:32 --> 00:33:39 | see it as a retail level of support, and it's going to sell the idea even further to them, that it should be safe because it tried two times to go down |
| 168 | 00:33:39 --> 00:33:48 | there. And what I've tried to do over the years is tried to open your mind to that's exactly what it's designed to do. It's designed to, to coax you into |
| 169 | 00:33:48 --> 00:34:01 | trusting it. When when a hunter is hunting, many times they'll put feed out on a trail that's well well traveled by deer or whatever they're hunting, because |
| 170 | 00:34:01 --> 00:34:10 | they want them to keep coming back keep coming back as a reason for it. They're baiting it. Well, the market is doing that every single day, every single |
| 171 | 00:34:10 --> 00:34:20 | minute. It's doing that it's baiting the perception of us the speculator and if they keep chumming the waters with things that is collected and classically |
| 172 | 00:34:20 --> 00:34:29 | referred to as support or resistance. It's always sold as don't overcomplicate trading, it's simply Support and Resistance will tell me how you're going to |
| 173 | 00:34:29 --> 00:34:37 | find consistently the support or resistance that works for you 90% of the time. Because if it was like that, everybody would be doing it because that's the |
| 174 | 00:34:37 --> 00:34:44 | first thing you encounter when you start learning how to trade it Support Resistance. Don't overcomplicate your trading? Well the people that say that |
| 175 | 00:34:44 --> 00:34:50 | don't overcomplicate, so don't overcomplicate your trading, Let them prove that they can go out there in front of you and pick the right support resistance and |
| 176 | 00:34:50 --> 00:34:59 | then you'll see nothing, though. You know, it's it's crickets then Right? So it's not as simple as that. And I tried to be honest and tell everybody look |
| 177 | 00:35:00 --> 00:35:09 | See, if there was a way for me to simply go in and go, here's the right support resistance. Here's the right inefficiencies that work all the time, I could have |
| 178 | 00:35:09 --> 00:35:18 | done that in one video. I could have done that in one video, anybody could do it if they knew that. But there's a lot of parameters that go along with knowing |
| 179 | 00:35:18 --> 00:35:25 | that idea. So you have to look at what that monthly range is doing in relationship to the last six to nine months, what is it doing, it's reaching for |
| 180 | 00:35:25 --> 00:35:36 | something as well. But that weekly range is going to be required for them generally, to go into the makeup of a monthly candlestick or range. And you have |
| 181 | 00:35:36 --> 00:35:44 | to be willing to trade with that idea that okay, the trade that you're looking for today is based on something that you think that weekly charts gonna do. That |
| 182 | 00:35:44 --> 00:35:53 | means it might take all wait till Friday for what you expect to see p&l as an objective, are you willing to take that trade and hold it until Friday, if |
| 183 | 00:35:53 --> 00:36:01 | you're trading on Monday, chances are you don't have the aptitude, or the comfort level or experience, patience. And these are not knocks against anyone, |
| 184 | 00:36:01 --> 00:36:11 | it's just these are human characteristics that most traders are opposed to, and you have to wrestle with. And they have, they have to grow into these things. |
| 185 | 00:36:11 --> 00:36:19 | But think about it, just because you're trading on a one minute chart, or a five minute chart, and you're trying to trade with large range objectives. Something |
| 186 | 00:36:19 --> 00:36:26 | based on a weekly chart, you see these relative equal highs, or you see these relatively close, I'm speaking, you know, hypothetically, I'm not trying to draw |
| 187 | 00:36:26 --> 00:36:37 | anything off the chart here. The the idea is, are you willing to submit to the time, it may require for that weekly objective to be met, if you're trading |
| 188 | 00:36:37 --> 00:36:45 | early as Monday or Tuesday and waiting for that weekly range to expand to that level. If you're honest with yourself, and you're relatively new, you're not as |
| 189 | 00:36:45 --> 00:36:53 | soon as it starts trading, and you're in the move, you're already looking for an excuse to get out of it. Because it's it's suffocate you, because you're |
| 190 | 00:36:53 --> 00:37:05 | experiencing the uncertainty that every trader has to embrace that you have to be able to look at the markets, okay. I don't know when it's going to start |
| 191 | 00:37:05 --> 00:37:15 | running. I'm still learning that part. So I have to submit to this much time I put the trade on based on something on the weekly chart, it's going to reach for |
| 192 | 00:37:15 --> 00:37:22 | these relative ego highs or this inefficiency above the marketplace. You know, that's the draw and liquidity I'm looking for. And I just entered the trade, I |
| 193 | 00:37:22 --> 00:37:32 | used a one minute chart to get in. It's the right time of day, the market looks like it's already made, its low. It's done. Its initial opening range, it swept |
| 194 | 00:37:32 --> 00:37:41 | Some sell stops. So now I'm in on a bullish fair value gap. And I'm trying to trade up into a high that's maybe 250 handles away, that may not be your cup of |
| 195 | 00:37:41 --> 00:37:51 | tea, that may not be your model. But I teach my students to trade with that mindset, you won't have the experience to hold on to that type of move, you're |
| 196 | 00:37:51 --> 00:38:02 | going to want to get out as soon as you get 10 handles because you have never had 10 hands before. And when you first do it, take the 10 handles, feel what it |
| 197 | 00:38:02 --> 00:38:10 | feels like to have that win, but still study it like you're in it every little fluctuation that will be moving in your favor or against you. You have to really |
| 198 | 00:38:10 --> 00:38:18 | measure what that would feel like if you were really in there still holding that trade. And be honest with yourself track the amount of drawdown and the length |
| 199 | 00:38:18 --> 00:38:25 | of time it takes to get to that daily objective and how long it takes to get to that objective you were aiming for for the weekly chart, and it may not get |
| 200 | 00:38:25 --> 00:38:34 | there. And then you'll be thankful that you did to take the profit or split it in half. If you have a way of taking off one portion of it as a partial. When |
| 201 | 00:38:34 --> 00:38:42 | you feel that panic, take it off and then try to reach for the time of day where you should have a consolidation. So if you're trading in the morning, try to at |
| 202 | 00:38:42 --> 00:38:52 | least hold until 11 o'clock Eastern time, again near the local time. And that usually will cause some consolidation or a retracement that sets up for that |
| 203 | 00:38:52 --> 00:39:02 | hourly, hourly but the lunch hour consolidation or retracement and then go back in and start studying it from one o'clock or 130 in afternoon Eastern Time. And |
| 204 | 00:39:02 --> 00:39:14 | see if it wants a resuming move in that same direction. These are all gradual approaches to baptizing yourself in the understanding of that you're going to |
| 205 | 00:39:14 --> 00:39:23 | glean from watching price action, a book, a course a video watching someone do it live, you could literally be over someone's shoulder every single day that is |
| 206 | 00:39:23 --> 00:39:33 | not going to give you experience it's going to give you trust in them. But in your mind, because if they do it right and you copycat them, you're associating |
| 207 | 00:39:33 --> 00:39:42 | falsely that you get experience from that and the only thing you're experiencing is splash over. You're following someone that knows what they're doing at the |
| 208 | 00:39:42 --> 00:39:49 | time and why they're doing it. And it may or may not be the right reasons for why they're doing it. But that's what you're trusting. And to me, I think that's |
| 209 | 00:39:49 --> 00:39:56 | stupid. You're trusting someone else that's not really going to be 100% honest with you always why they're deciding to do that. They don't know if they're mad |
| 210 | 00:39:56 --> 00:40:03 | at their husband or wife or whatever they're doing in the morning before they You start trading, you don't know if they're sick, you don't if they're pissed |
| 211 | 00:40:03 --> 00:40:09 | off, you don't know if it's the last day, they're gonna do it, they just want to self destruct in front of everybody. You don't know any of those things. But |
| 212 | 00:40:09 --> 00:40:12 | you're trusting that they're going to make the right decisions with your money. |
| 213 | 00:40:12 --> 00:40:22 | If you copy them, to me, That's stupidity. So you need to adopt the things that you have seen work for you that you've trusted things that you've seen, that |
| 214 | 00:40:22 --> 00:40:32 | causes concern for you. Now I'll talk about what I saw the other day when I was taking that trade in the NASDAQ. I liked the initial run, but then I saw |
| 215 | 00:40:32 --> 00:40:41 | something I didn't like, and I annotate it. But I stuck with the idea because I took the trade based on this premise. So as long as I don't see those things |
| 216 | 00:40:42 --> 00:40:50 | change or undermine the underlying expectation, I'm going to stick to it. Now as someone that's brand new, as a trader, as soon as it runs up there and starts to |
| 217 | 00:40:50 --> 00:40:56 | retrace like that, they're going to close the trade, you're gonna get scared, they'll close the trade be done with it. And then when it does run in your |
| 218 | 00:40:56 --> 00:41:05 | favor, they're mad. And because it does those types of things, they want to go right back in and get revenge and say, You stole an opportunity from me, and I'm |
| 219 | 00:41:05 --> 00:41:13 | going to take it back by force. And the only thing you do is pay more commission, and you lose now, because you're expecting the run that you were |
| 220 | 00:41:13 --> 00:41:20 | expecting the pain out that did pan out. And then nothing beyond that is what you would expect for that given trading opportunity or that day. Now, you're |
| 221 | 00:41:20 --> 00:41:30 | expecting to squeeze the last bit of juice out of that lemon, and you're getting nothing but frustration. And that will repeat over and over and over until you |
| 222 | 00:41:30 --> 00:41:39 | step outside of that cycle and say, Okay, I have to be here on time, I have to have something in an expectation, but why the price should move a specific way. |
| 223 | 00:41:40 --> 00:41:50 | So I set all that which is a long way around the barn to cut to the chase with this, since we are in this large consolidation from over here and beginning of |
| 224 | 00:41:50 --> 00:42:01 | March all the way through here. It's been this ranging, okay, the the highest extreme of the range is here. Okay, so to do that there hasn't been anything |
| 225 | 00:42:01 --> 00:42:11 | higher than that. So that's our, that's our high end watermark level. There's a lot of liquidity out there, who's up here with their liquidity resting above |
| 226 | 00:42:11 --> 00:42:22 | that high, large funds, larger traders that are bearish. And they're trying to time some cyclicals some technical, some whatever, you know, Gizmo thing that |
| 227 | 00:42:22 --> 00:42:34 | causes them to have some measure of bearishness and the lowest point of this consolidation is this low right here. So the largest pool of liquidity, the |
| 228 | 00:42:34 --> 00:42:51 | magnetic impacts of price action, right now are directly linked to this low in this high. Where are we at in reference to that if we take a fib. I'm not a |
| 229 | 00:42:51 --> 00:43:05 | Fibonacci trader, but I use it to teach and identify, premium and discount. Right now market price is where it's near the low of the range, what range that |
| 230 | 00:43:05 --> 00:43:17 | low and a high. Look how many times we worked in premium, that means premium is the high to the midpoint. It spent a lot of time up in that area, then left it |
| 231 | 00:43:17 --> 00:43:29 | energetically came back up just to close this inefficiency in here. But look where the bodies are telling you. Yeah, well, we'll reach up into that premium |
| 232 | 00:43:29 --> 00:43:43 | side of that range being the high and the low. The bodies are telling you, hey, look, this is all reaching for a short term premium to sell into, because our |
| 233 | 00:43:43 --> 00:43:57 | underlying motive is to run against the long holders. So how would they do that? They're going to attack key levels of support that retail will trust as a |
| 234 | 00:43:57 --> 00:44:08 | barrier or a defense mechanism for their long positions. So they would they going to do the lion simply goes to the watering hole to drink. And then when it |
| 235 | 00:44:08 --> 00:44:20 | drinks, it goes to the tall grass and lays down. Why? Because it knows everything else it eats needs to drink too. And this is the watering hole right |
| 236 | 00:44:20 --> 00:44:38 | here. And right here. So the market has a very high degree of probability of reaching for that low. And that low. More specifically, this low because it |
| 237 | 00:44:38 --> 00:44:48 | takes out a larger population of long holders, yet there may be traders that have been long prior to this run up over here that have their stop loss right |
| 238 | 00:44:48 --> 00:45:01 | there. I guarantee you that liquidity that's below that low is far less in volume than the liquidity resting below this low right there. because larger fun |
| 239 | 00:45:01 --> 00:45:14 | traders or hedge, they will have their their positions hedged with a stop loss that's far outside the normal static parameters of intraday fluctuations. |
| 240 | 00:45:14 --> 00:45:23 | Meaning that they're going to look for a much more meaningful pull against their trade to decide they're wrong. Why? How can they do that, because they're not |
| 241 | 00:45:23 --> 00:45:35 | over leveraging. They're not putting everything on the trade. And they're also scaling into their position. So they're not having an entry that's only |
| 242 | 00:45:36 --> 00:45:47 | specifically anchored on one entry price point. Because they're using such a large degree of equity and capital, they have to scale into positions. But they |
| 243 | 00:45:47 --> 00:45:55 | do have a core measure of risk that they have to define. And that's what I'm thinking of when I'm looking at price. And that's what I had just described to |
| 244 | 00:45:55 --> 00:46:06 | you. Okay, so if this is a book, say it was a book, I was trying to communicate this, this would have been one chapter. And for some of you that have traded for |
| 245 | 00:46:06 --> 00:46:15 | a while you already know these types of things. Others that are simply looking for to simply a fair value gap in a world of equal highs and lows. You now know |
| 246 | 00:46:15 --> 00:46:24 | that there's something beyond that that's required. And you don't get it by reading another chapter. You you get it by watching Real Price Action, and |
| 247 | 00:46:24 --> 00:46:34 | studying old price action moves and data. You study what time these moves begin. When did they conclude if you're expecting a market to be bullish, and the |
| 248 | 00:46:34 --> 00:46:46 | market is uneventful in the morning? Even if there's a high impact news driver, if nothing happens, then we don't force it before 11 o'clock in the morning, New |
| 249 | 00:46:46 --> 00:46:55 | York local time, we sit back and say, okay, then the moves coming in the afternoon. See that paradigm shift that just took place there. If I'm expecting |
| 250 | 00:46:55 --> 00:47:06 | something to happen, the market needs to luckily draw to a level that's obvious. It's obvious that these relative equal lows are in close proximity where prices |
| 251 | 00:47:06 --> 00:47:17 | right now, does that mean it's 100% surety that it's going to go there? No, it just means that it's more likely. where prices right now 18,000 105, it's more |
| 252 | 00:47:17 --> 00:47:28 | likely that it will go below these lows here than it is to go above that high. And why do I say that, because they're so close to this low, the opening range |
| 253 | 00:47:28 --> 00:47:37 | in itself at 930 10 o'clock can come down here and do the do the damage in the business of collecting all that liquidity there. And it's not my interest or |
| 254 | 00:47:37 --> 00:47:46 | concern, if it goes to that low and keeps on going down because there's an efficiency ratio on that candle. That's completely outside the scope of interest |
| 255 | 00:47:46 --> 00:47:59 | for me. Why? Because that's not my model. That's not what I need. That's not my cookie cutter, I have to have something that is always the same thing. Back to |
| 256 | 00:47:59 --> 00:48:07 | that cookie cutter sharp. The cookie cutter shark is not going out there and doing machine gun strikes on everything that swims by, it's looking for |
| 257 | 00:48:07 --> 00:48:16 | something that's been lumbering or sitting still, it may be sleeping sitting still. It runs up on it takes it and it's gone. And the thing that gets bitten, |
| 258 | 00:48:16 --> 00:48:28 | many times it doesn't even know what hit it. Well, I understand just like that cookie cutter shark. That's their mode of feeding. They're not reinventing it, |
| 259 | 00:48:28 --> 00:48:35 | they're not trying some new strategy. Okay, they're not, they're trying to do something different so they can survive. So as a trader, you have to strip this |
| 260 | 00:48:35 --> 00:48:46 | down to index especially in the beginning, you have to find something that repeats a lot. Well, running on relative equal highs and relatively low lows, or |
| 261 | 00:48:46 --> 00:48:54 | running into an inefficiency, like a fair bag up above or below the marketplace. You start by studying that, and you don't have a bias. And when you begin, you |
| 262 | 00:48:54 --> 00:49:02 | don't have it, you're not going to know it. You'll be spending all this time jumping around on live streamers, listening, and most of them don't even agree, |
| 263 | 00:49:02 --> 00:49:11 | but they can all collectively walk out that same day having net profit. And that makes it more complicated and more frustrating for you. Because you don't know |
| 264 | 00:49:11 --> 00:49:19 | what they're thinking while they're trading. And many times, they're probably doing something that they didn't intend to do that day. But because of their |
| 265 | 00:49:19 --> 00:49:29 | experience, they changed gears and said, Okay, this is what I really wanted to do. And they maybe even outlined it in their live stream. But something changed |
| 266 | 00:49:29 --> 00:49:37 | in the price delivery, the things that they're looking for, and it changed their mind and there's nothing wrong with that because they're submitting to their |
| 267 | 00:49:37 --> 00:49:46 | experience. And they're using their model now in a different direction. And they're receptive to the market still in the beginning. You don't have that |
| 268 | 00:49:46 --> 00:49:56 | trait. You don't have that characteristic. You don't have that trust mechanism that you know what? I did expect this to happen, but I understand it this |
| 269 | 00:49:56 --> 00:50:02 | doesn't make me stupid doesn't make me foolish. It doesn't make me unlearn it. It doesn't make me an unprofitable trader doesn't make me someone that's |
| 270 | 00:50:02 --> 00:50:10 | guessing when I'm changing my mind, it means that you are being diligent about being flexible. And in the beginning, |
| 271 | 00:50:11 --> 00:50:21 | you got to be careful to guard yourself away from being flexible in the sense that you're going to buy and sell because of the market moving quickly, and it |
| 272 | 00:50:21 --> 00:50:29 | lures you in. And because you really don't know what it's trying to do you think the initial run the quick suddenness, that's what it's telling me. It's telling |
| 273 | 00:50:29 --> 00:50:37 | me it's gonna go up there. Yeah, it's done run 32 handles, but it's probably still gonna run five more. So let me do that when you don't realize or |
| 274 | 00:50:37 --> 00:50:49 | appreciate the level of risk that that 32 handles it may retrace that down half of that. And you're trying to get five handles? You're trying to get 10 handles? |
| 275 | 00:50:49 --> 00:51:01 | Are you able to weather 16 to 18 handles drawdown? Because you chased it? How many times have you been burned doing that? Because you're not anticipating, |
| 276 | 00:51:01 --> 00:51:13 | you're not expecting something, you're not looking for your cookie cutter to be implemented, you're waiting for someone else, or something to convince you that |
| 277 | 00:51:13 --> 00:51:22 | this is going to be the one that works and you have nothing to fear. And instead of doing that, the way I teach is I want you to go in and study without risk |
| 278 | 00:51:22 --> 00:51:32 | without even pushing a demo account. No entries to study price action, do these things tend to repeat. And it's it's something that's so low threshold in terms |
| 279 | 00:51:32 --> 00:51:43 | of an objective, where you can build your entire model around it. And that's that five handle you run. That's just to get your toe in the water. That's not |
| 280 | 00:51:43 --> 00:51:53 | to say, five handles is new. That's the promised land and you don't need to do anything else. Because you're really many times risking one to one or sometimes |
| 281 | 00:51:53 --> 00:52:02 | a negative r. And as long as you're learning where you're not risking real money, there's nothing wrong with that. There's nothing wrong with that. Because |
| 282 | 00:52:03 --> 00:52:11 | you have to have a baseline to build from in the beginning, you're not going to know what you're doing. Because you're gonna be chasing price, you're just let |
| 283 | 00:52:11 --> 00:52:19 | me see what happens if I do this. And then you regret it. Even if it is a demo coming at me, I can never get these demo accounts and move in my favor. So you |
| 284 | 00:52:19 --> 00:52:25 | get frustrated. And you jump around from one person teaching something, some person doing this amongst one live stream, someone's doing a mentorship, |
| 285 | 00:52:25 --> 00:52:35 | someone's selling notes that somebody else's stuff that's already free on our YouTube channel. Hint, hint, nudge nudge. So there's a lot to this. And people |
| 286 | 00:52:35 --> 00:52:44 | really do a terrible job of being honest upfront and say, Look, you're going to waste a lot of time, your first two years is going to be a lot of wasted time. |
| 287 | 00:52:45 --> 00:52:54 | And you won't identify it as wasted time. Because you're going to try to do all kinds of things, trying to make it faster for yourself or shortcut things. And |
| 288 | 00:52:54 --> 00:53:03 | all those things are detrimental to your development. But nobody's listening. I tell my students all the same thing all the time. And they hardly ever listen |
| 289 | 00:53:04 --> 00:53:13 | until they finally go through the pain. And they come back. Okay, I'm gonna do it the way he said, and all of a sudden, now to get results. I have millionaire |
| 290 | 00:53:13 --> 00:53:23 | students now. Okay, it's documented, it's there. It's real now. Okay. So it's replicable, they can go out and do the things that taught in these free videos. |
| 291 | 00:53:24 --> 00:53:36 | But it isn't easy. It's easy to do. Because it's at your own pace, No one's forcing you to do it. And if you have a role based idea that allows your cookie |
| 292 | 00:53:36 --> 00:53:49 | cutter, your cookie cutter is your model. And what I mean by that model could be simply as I think, at any given time, if the weekly chart is likely to go up 100 |
| 293 | 00:53:49 --> 00:53:58 | handles, okay, I'm gonna again, just to prove that I can do this every single day, every single day, I can outline a model, and they'll all be different. And |
| 294 | 00:53:58 --> 00:54:06 | they're all potentially profitable, where they don't look and sound like anything else that's said before. But let's just say that you expect that the |
| 295 | 00:54:06 --> 00:54:15 | weekly candlestick has the likelihood, that high probability. Now when I say that you're thinking, okay, so what is he hiding? And what is he not saying |
| 296 | 00:54:15 --> 00:54:28 | there that causes things to be high probability experience, we can't buy that. You can't, you can't obtain it by purchasing it, you have to earn it. That means |
| 297 | 00:54:28 --> 00:54:37 | you'll learn over a period of time when the markets running higher. You'll know which one of those fair value gaps is real, and which ones are likely to stay |
| 298 | 00:54:37 --> 00:54:48 | open. That's experience. If you sit down with a book that I'm writing, and the I say, Okay, this is what it's you're gonna be like, but I heard him say this, and |
| 299 | 00:54:48 --> 00:54:56 | I was hoping he's gonna say something different. I'm pre warning you right now. You don't need to buy any of my books. The only reason why I'm writing books is |
| 300 | 00:54:56 --> 00:55:05 | to put it in a format where it's anchored to me now Now, dozens of writers have already anchored it to me with writing their books about me. They've already did |
| 301 | 00:55:05 --> 00:55:16 | that. But they don't have the details that I want to share. But I promise you, these, these details are not going to be oh my goodness. Now it all makes sense, |
| 302 | 00:55:16 --> 00:55:27 | because it still requires you to be in front of these charts, putting that time in, because there's no shortcut. But a model is your cookie cutter, and then you |
| 303 | 00:55:27 --> 00:55:38 | have to anticipate the minimum threshold. If I can see 50 handles higher or lower, based on the weekly candlestick, what it's likely to reach for. That's |
| 304 | 00:55:38 --> 00:55:53 | enough for me. Now, why 50 handles, one out of 100, it can be for you. But 50 handles is easy, you can do that in an intraday run. NASDAQ can easily put down |
| 305 | 00:55:53 --> 00:56:05 | 50 handles in one day, and still be a day where it closes, where it relatively opens. So it could be an indecisive day. But that 50 handles that's framed on a |
| 306 | 00:56:05 --> 00:56:14 | directional bias that I think that the weekly chart is trying to reach for some kind of a inefficiency of of the marketplace or above a high or relatively equal |
| 307 | 00:56:14 --> 00:56:23 | highs, it's likely to reach there. Okay, so if I know that it's likely to do that on the weekly chart, large funds, large traders are looking at weekly |
| 308 | 00:56:23 --> 00:56:34 | charts to get in sync with long term primary trends. They're not going in on a one minute chart or sub one minute chart, they're not doing that high frequency |
| 309 | 00:56:34 --> 00:56:46 | trading algorithms are referring to that to cannibalize other traders. So when I say smart money is doing this, the smart money is doing that. Smart money's not |
| 310 | 00:56:46 --> 00:56:59 | doing sub one minute entries. Smart Money is accumulating large positions over a period of time averaging and scaling in. But using that logic, we can still go |
| 311 | 00:56:59 --> 00:57:05 | against them because that's what I've framed here. With this large consolidation, the largest pool of liquidity and opportunity rests rate below |
| 312 | 00:57:05 --> 00:57:15 | that low. Because the Mark has gone up a lot. We're entering the spring, spring usually has some measure of retracement, even if it doesn't take that low out |
| 313 | 00:57:15 --> 00:57:24 | here today, it could probably do it on the report that's due out later in week or before the close of Friday. And what happens if it doesn't do the ICT, you're |
| 314 | 00:57:24 --> 00:57:32 | wrong? It just means that I have that opportunity in that mindset going into trading next week. See that, again, that's a paradigm shift, you're not going to |
| 315 | 00:57:32 --> 00:57:41 | trade with 100% accuracy. And many of you like I did, I wanted to find the person that was able to do that. And that's a unicorn that doesn't exist. Okay, |
| 316 | 00:57:41 --> 00:57:54 | that they don't exist, folks, they do not exist. The faster you accumulate the trust in yourself being the catalyst for buying and selling or getting into a |
| 317 | 00:57:54 --> 00:58:04 | trade or out of a trade. That's your superpower. And if you can go into a weekly chart and say okay, I think that it's going to likely run 50 handles higher to |
| 318 | 00:58:04 --> 00:58:12 | that fair value gap that's above where we're at right now. You're doing this on a Saturday or before Sunday's opening bell. You're doing that type of research |
| 319 | 00:58:12 --> 00:58:21 | that you're that's your study. And you see, okay, it's been moving this direction for a period of time with period of time. While we had been doing it |
| 320 | 00:58:21 --> 00:58:32 | for the last month or two, last six months a year, whatever. What's it trying to obtain or reach for? Right now in close proximity to where we closed the |
| 321 | 00:58:32 --> 00:58:43 | previous week's Friday, when you're looking at the market after the market Bell closes on Friday, between Friday's close in Sunday's opening bell that time is |
| 322 | 00:58:43 --> 00:58:54 | when you're doing your intel. And all you do is look for in my opinion, I'm looking for 50 handles, that it can run higher or lower. Based on how it closed |
| 323 | 00:58:54 --> 00:59:09 | on Friday. It doesn't demand a 400 price forehand handle run for me to take a trade. Now, I might see something that affords me oh well. It might go 400 |
| 324 | 00:59:09 --> 00:59:17 | handles if it can take that first 50 out and how it trades once it does that. That'll give me more insight to say okay, well initially, my first objective is |
| 325 | 00:59:17 --> 00:59:27 | is I'm going to try to trade with that 50 handle run to this premium level or, or some discount level that makes that 50 handle objective be 50 handles. In |
| 326 | 00:59:27 --> 00:59:35 | other words, say this is where we closed on the previous week in market wasn't live. Okay. And we're in close proximity here. Well, if we looked at that right |
| 327 | 00:59:35 --> 00:59:50 | there, that's, that's less than 100 handles. So that's certainly 50 handles right to get to that low. So I would start the week expecting whatever this |
| 328 | 00:59:50 --> 00:59:59 | market would be to try to aim for that low here. And if it does, I want to see how it trades that low because this low is much more important. You see what I |
| 329 | 00:59:59 --> 01:00:07 | just did there? Are, I took everything I said earlier in the discussion so far today, and I will be looking at my price action. But I got to see how we how we |
| 330 | 01:00:07 --> 01:00:10 | open and how we work that first 30 minutes because as the opening range, |
| 331 | 01:00:11 --> 01:00:19 | I want to see what we do with that, I anticipate when we know what's going on here, I anticipate that they'll want to work towards this low. And if we do, I |
| 332 | 01:00:19 --> 01:00:27 | want to see how energetically if at all, I may be wrong, how energetically it wants to run below that love to take out this low here. And we just opened now. |
| 333 | 01:00:27 --> 01:00:33 | Okay, so taking that large macro perspective, and we dropped down to a five miniature |
| 334 | 01:00:40 --> 01:00:50 | Okay, so we have all this range in here. So you don't want to take a trade right away at an opening date. When you have all this exposure in here, all of this |
| 335 | 01:00:50 --> 01:00:58 | here, it can easily retrace into and then roll down to take that liquidity out below that higher timeframe trading range. the sell side, this resting right |
| 336 | 01:00:58 --> 01:01:12 | below here, that's in my mind, where the most probability for where the market would like to go down to, it does not need to go down to it today. It may do it |
| 337 | 01:01:12 --> 01:01:25 | on the other high impact news driver in the week or after that report. And going into Friday's close. See, do you see how fast this can be complicated. If you're |
| 338 | 01:01:25 --> 01:01:33 | trying to always sit down and say I need to know every single day, every single session, every single woman a candle, I need to know everything about that one, |
| 339 | 01:01:33 --> 01:01:44 | write that in there. There are times when you have to sit still, right now is one of them. We just opened we have a huge gap. Right now we're looking at |
| 340 | 01:01:44 --> 01:01:54 | electronic trading hours. This is a record trading hours yet. That's your opening gap. That's your opening range gap. Use this price there, the close. And |
| 341 | 01:01:54 --> 01:02:04 | where we opened. So that will look like this. I wish someone would have done this when I was learning how to trade. They don't even have to push any buttons. |
| 342 | 01:02:04 --> 01:02:12 | All of this makes so much more sense. When you remove the necessity of being right about making money or not losing money when you strip it down to the core |
| 343 | 01:02:12 --> 01:02:19 | essentials of what it is you're trying to do. Because if you can do that, and you do the right things, by doing that, the default is you won't lose more money |
| 344 | 01:02:19 --> 01:02:32 | than you make. That means you have an opportunity to be profitable. And then you milk that into opportunities where everything is really aligned in your favor, |
| 345 | 01:02:32 --> 01:02:39 | it's harder for you to be incorrect about certain setups, and you won't know what they are for you until you spend time doing this. And that's why I said |
| 346 | 01:02:39 --> 01:02:46 | your first two years is a lot of wasted time, you're gonna have doubts, you're going to have it right for yourself, you're going to have your model, but you're |
| 347 | 01:02:46 --> 01:02:56 | going to feel like you need to tinker with it. And then you you lose some of the the efficacy to it. The efficiency behind that model that's stripped down, it's |
| 348 | 01:02:56 --> 01:03:03 | simple, it doesn't have a lot of moving parts, and you're comfortable doing it. But what happens is you get bored, and you want to make more money, you want to |
| 349 | 01:03:03 --> 01:03:11 | make more trades. And that's not the answer to this, this equation is solved by doing the least with the least amount of risk, and then letting time do |
| 350 | 01:03:11 --> 01:03:21 | everything else. And the money management do all the heavy lifting. So this opening range, this midpoint here, that's the mid part or point price level of |
| 351 | 01:03:21 --> 01:03:32 | the opening range, I always anticipate that trying to be at least reached. Now if at any time. If we for instance, I like I like these levels down here, I |
| 352 | 01:03:32 --> 01:03:40 | think that they're they're likely draws on liquidity. But we still have to contend with the likelihood of trading back up to the very minimum of that level |
| 353 | 01:03:40 --> 01:03:50 | right there. Because that's the midpoint of the opening range gap or the gap opening. Okay. There are schools of thought about this in trading where they'll |
| 354 | 01:03:50 --> 01:04:02 | say, Okay, I'm trader a, okay, we'll say trader, Steve. Trader, Steve likes to take trades where he sees these big gaps down, he's not a bias type trader, he |
| 355 | 01:04:02 --> 01:04:10 | just wants to buy the opening, when it's a gap like this, because he knows there's a there's a pretty good chance that the gaps tend to get filled, but not |
| 356 | 01:04:10 --> 01:04:25 | always. Okay, so how how trader Jane, okay, she sits down she goes, I, I like to short when the market trades back up into the gap, when I have an objective of |
| 357 | 01:04:25 --> 01:04:32 | where I think the markets gonna go. So she's not buying this to make money going up where Steve is trying to do that. And Steve's not trying to get the entirety |
| 358 | 01:04:32 --> 01:04:40 | of the gap closure. He's looking at old lows like this, and like this because he's a Support Resistance trader. So he would look at this and say, Well, I like |
| 359 | 01:04:40 --> 01:04:50 | the idea of framing my trade on trading up to that, and that's really good. Why because it's still less than half of the gap. Why is it important? Because on |
| 360 | 01:04:50 --> 01:04:58 | really, really bearish days, okay, Steve might not have the aptitude or experience level to know when it's going to trade up to the midpoint of the gap. |
| 361 | 01:05:00 --> 01:05:10 | But he also understands that he may be on a big bearish day. And he may be playing with fire. But his model is by opening gaps. If it's if it's gapping, |
| 362 | 01:05:10 --> 01:05:14 | lower, he wants to buy it. That's his model. He's not trying to do anything else. He's not trying to reinvent the wheel. He's not trying to create something |
| 363 | 01:05:14 --> 01:05:23 | new and try to shake up the industry. He's simply going in here with a cookie cutter shark owner, taken his meal and run. So if it goes up to some level |
| 364 | 01:05:23 --> 01:05:33 | before the midpoint, and retraces and runs lower, that indicates what it's a really bearish day. And that means he would be holding on to a trade expecting |
| 365 | 01:05:33 --> 01:05:45 | it to begin delivering more than it's likely to do. So overstaying his welcome and letting a winning day or winning opportunity turned into a losing. So he's |
| 366 | 01:05:45 --> 01:05:55 | learned to know that he's learned to know he's done it long enough to learn and know that he needs to have objectives to reach for before he gets to that |
| 367 | 01:05:55 --> 01:06:01 | midpoint. Because if it's a really bearish day, it may not even trade to the midpoint. And I like to see those signatures, that's a signature, that's a real |
| 368 | 01:06:01 --> 01:06:10 | important to me, that's indicative of something that may be a longer term duration. Whereas if we can't get up to the midpoint of that gap, at least the |
| 369 | 01:06:10 --> 01:06:19 | trade the that level, and we start to sell off when we trade below here and go lower, that really shows weakness, underlying weakness, that means we have |
| 370 | 01:06:19 --> 01:06:28 | probably a large degree of probability for even lower prices going into Friday's close. Now you see how fast all this still compounds in complexity. And it takes |
| 371 | 01:06:28 --> 01:06:37 | time to build this data to understand that these are the types of things that can tend to occur in price action. So you have to have your model stripped down |
| 372 | 01:06:37 --> 01:06:47 | to the smallest, the least moving parts as possible. And in the beginning, it's you're inundated with, especially from someone like myself, where I can have all |
| 373 | 01:06:47 --> 01:06:57 | kinds of things. And we can make all kinds of models. But if that model doesn't fit your personality, if it doesn't fit the way you think, the way you tend to |
| 374 | 01:06:57 --> 01:07:05 | look at things, it's going to be impossible for you use it and make money. Because you're going to second guess it, you're going to try to out think it, |
| 375 | 01:07:06 --> 01:07:12 | you're going to try to outperform and get in before it should be used as an entry, you're going to get out because you feel something in your stomach that |
| 376 | 01:07:12 --> 01:07:20 | doesn't feel like you should hold on to the trade. Based on real data. What if What if you made a decision on what have you collected in terms of experience |
| 377 | 01:07:20 --> 01:07:28 | that helps you frame that mindset, versus Steve, the trader here, hypothetically, he's buying an opening gap with the expectation that it's going |
| 378 | 01:07:28 --> 01:07:36 | to trade up to this low here, it could stop just going above this, this low here like it is here, it could stop right there and not even good at that level there |
| 379 | 01:07:36 --> 01:07:47 | and go lower. And that would be a losing trade for him. If he if he allows it to stop out. He's okay with that. Because his cookie cutter, his model is only |
| 380 | 01:07:47 --> 01:07:54 | looking for one specific thing. And if it doesn't pan out, he's not going to arm wrestle it, he's not gonna get mad about it and say, Oh, my model is broken, I'm |
| 381 | 01:07:54 --> 01:08:01 | going to try to do something else. What is this other guy making a YouTube video about, I'm going to try to do what they do. That's not That's someone that's |
| 382 | 01:08:01 --> 01:08:11 | never going to be consistent, except for consistently system and method hopping. And you don't want to be method hopping from one discipline or one approach over |
| 383 | 01:08:11 --> 01:08:18 | and over and over again. Because you're not giving yourself a chance to find something that's going to fit you. And you have to spend time with something. |
| 384 | 01:08:18 --> 01:08:27 | Whatever it is, whether it's my stuff or someone else's, to understand where your character flaws are. And you gotta be real honest with yourself. Are you |
| 385 | 01:08:27 --> 01:08:37 | impulsive? Are you just trying to get an error because you can't stand to be waiting for something to set up? Are you afraid of risk, then that means you |
| 386 | 01:08:37 --> 01:08:44 | need to trade with a demo account until you're completely bored to death, about the outcome. And you're even with a demo account, you're trading with the |
| 387 | 01:08:44 --> 01:08:56 | smallest margin used for leverage. It's not about the money, it's about you framing the mindset that's required for you to do this. Because until you adopt |
| 388 | 01:08:56 --> 01:09:06 | that mindset of knowing what you're doing and why you're doing it, adding money to it. Over leveraging will change the dynamic and it will completely introduce |
| 389 | 01:09:06 --> 01:09:15 | fear. Because now that little fluctuation that you would expect as a cookie cutter approach to get in it's real easy to get 10 handles a day that 10 handles |
| 390 | 01:09:15 --> 01:09:26 | is if it's over leveraged, it can run 10 handles like this. And it can be 1000s of dollars and your funded account your Live account your demo account, whatever |
| 391 | 01:09:26 --> 01:09:38 | is roasted immediately. So it's not about how fast you can run it's how can you calm yourself down in the beginning and give yourself the chance to learn how to |
| 392 | 01:09:38 --> 01:09:46 | do this correctly and removing the outside influence of people telling you Oh that sucks. Oh, you're never gonna be able to do that are my things better than |
| 393 | 01:09:46 --> 01:09:54 | yours? My my widget my my horseshit that I sell that no one really makes money with nobody's ever documented with profitability, all these things. They're |
| 394 | 01:09:54 --> 01:10:05 | going to be constantly trying to pine for your attention. Take yourself of out of all that, get out of social media, stop having conversations in social media, |
| 395 | 01:10:05 --> 01:10:16 | don't let other people tell you what you should do. Pick something, whether it's my my stuff or someone else's stuff, stick with it, it least for six months. And |
| 396 | 01:10:16 --> 01:10:25 | if you're not willing to submit to six months of baseline evaluation on yourself, how do you make your decisions? Are you quick about trying to go on |
| 397 | 01:10:25 --> 01:10:33 | here and do something? Do you change your mind real frequently? Are you indecisive? Or are you really lazy? Or are you requiring a whole lot of things |
| 398 | 01:10:33 --> 01:10:41 | that make your mind up about something because all those things, they can be labeled as weaknesses, from someone on the outside that does something |
| 399 | 01:10:41 --> 01:10:42 | different. |
| 400 | 01:10:43 --> 01:10:51 | But you'll allow that person's opinion about what you're trying to discover about yourself, the frame the direction, or the approach that you should trade |
| 401 | 01:10:51 --> 01:11:00 | and they know nothing about you. They just know whatever you've made available to them. But you live in your skin, you know what it's like to be you. So you |
| 402 | 01:11:00 --> 01:11:12 | have to take a lot of time in the privacy of you studying, whatever it is myself or someone else's. And discover what those characteristics are about you. And |
| 403 | 01:11:12 --> 01:11:19 | you got to be honest, you know, when you're doing something stupid, it's when you're sitting down with your demo account, your funded account, your funding |
| 404 | 01:11:19 --> 01:11:31 | account, challenge, whatever, and you're pushing the button to find out what happens. Well, you know, you know what happens? FFL, right? You you mess around, |
| 405 | 01:11:31 --> 01:11:39 | you'll find out and a lot of times you're discovering that you shouldn't have done that. Now, you don't want to be doing that six months later, as the as the |
| 406 | 01:11:39 --> 01:11:46 | catalyst for why you're doing something in the marketplace, you don't want that. You want to know specifically what it is you're looking for. And while you're |
| 407 | 01:11:46 --> 01:11:55 | looking for it, the market is likely to draw down here because there's a large pool of liquidity, there's big sell stops down here. Okay, we don't need a whole |
| 408 | 01:11:55 --> 01:12:02 | lot of scientific reasons to justify that we don't need to retail logic or theory for that. We don't need a Fibonacci for that we don't need any kind of |
| 409 | 01:12:02 --> 01:12:13 | PDE array, nothing. It's just it's common sense that that's the lowest point of this range. We're so close to it right now, we've already had a huge drop here, |
| 410 | 01:12:14 --> 01:12:24 | we're not even able to get to this low yet. It could still, but we're watching it, what I would like to see is I want to see price, try to at least get to this |
| 411 | 01:12:24 --> 01:12:32 | level and get above it. And if we start rolling lower and take out that low, then it's probably gonna be a real fast, easy run on the very first 32nd or 15 |
| 412 | 01:12:32 --> 01:12:40 | Second fair value gap that can be sold short, and then run that low out right there. That's exactly what I'm thinking right now that I've told you exactly |
| 413 | 01:12:40 --> 01:12:49 | what I would expect to see if certain factors and certain things panned out. That that's based on everything I've said in discussion here, it's probably |
| 414 | 01:12:49 --> 01:12:55 | bored the socks off the most of you. But for someone that's really trying to learn, they have a ton of notes. Now. They have a ton of epiphanies, they're |
| 415 | 01:12:55 --> 01:13:04 | like, Wow, yeah, that makes sense to me, or I'm in that stage of development, or I went through that now it makes sense. It's, it's just three decades of |
| 416 | 01:13:04 --> 01:13:14 | experience, I did a lot of things wrong. And I know that human nature being what it is, as much as I would have loved to have someone do what I'm doing right |
| 417 | 01:13:14 --> 01:13:23 | here, which may seem like nothing to some of you, because you social media is adopted the squirrel tension mentality where teach me in one minute, or you |
| 418 | 01:13:23 --> 01:13:31 | don't know how to deal with that. That's, I'm not a tick talker. But everybody's developing a tick tock mindset. So you have to have a 32nd, or one minute |
| 419 | 01:13:31 --> 01:13:40 | approach to this show something and you think you've mastered it, and they go out and start selling courses and books and signal services. So I'm not catering |
| 420 | 01:13:40 --> 01:13:46 | to people like that they're idiots. I'm not trying to cater to someone like that. I'm talking to the individual that wants to really learn how to do this |
| 421 | 01:13:46 --> 01:13:54 | themselves and not rely on having to come back to my YouTube channel, or anyone else's YouTube channel. See, that's, that's what separates how I teach. I want |
| 422 | 01:13:54 --> 01:14:02 | you to know how to do it. So that way, you don't need to go into anything that I do in the future, which I don't want to do much at all, like I told you, I'm |
| 423 | 01:14:02 --> 01:14:11 | trying to be done with all this stuff. You will be comfortable in your own skin. You won't feel any tendency, you won't wake up and say I'm looking at the |
| 424 | 01:14:11 --> 01:14:23 | charts. And I don't see something. So let me see what everybody else is doing. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, I know what I'm looking for. And what I do |
| 425 | 01:14:23 --> 01:14:34 | is I go on to YouTube, or I look at social media in the regular haunts that I go to. And I try to see what they and their crowd wants to do. If I have something |
| 426 | 01:14:34 --> 01:14:43 | that is opposed to what they're trying to do. I feel confident and it sounds arrogant, but I feel confident that what I'm expecting is more likely to pan out |
| 427 | 01:14:43 --> 01:14:54 | because the hive mentality or the herd mentality or other of retail. Generally not always, but generally they have it wrong. Sometimes they're in agreement, I |
| 428 | 01:14:54 --> 01:15:00 | might be published. And if I go in and listen to what their chat rooms are saying or what they post about something and then read it Comments behind it. |
| 429 | 01:15:00 --> 01:15:07 | Everybody's like, yeah, I believe that too. Oh, yeah, I'm with you, boss. Oh, that's that's what I'm doing champ, you know, whatever it is, I like to look for |
| 430 | 01:15:07 --> 01:15:15 | those things because what they're doing is they're emotionally cosigning, they may not have a real account, they may not even have a demo account they're gonna |
| 431 | 01:15:15 --> 01:15:23 | push. But the fact that they're subscribing to that view is enough of a sentiment indicator for me to feel very comfortable with what I'm trying to do |
| 432 | 01:15:23 --> 01:15:33 | that was already predetermined, and opposed to what they're doing. So I'm comfortable in my skin uncomfortable looking for that. So I'm looking like a |
| 433 | 01:15:33 --> 01:15:45 | like a lion I'm in, I'm in the tall grass right now, in the next 15 minutes, I'm still waiting, I'm waiting for that gazelle. I'm waiting for that unknowing |
| 434 | 01:15:45 --> 01:15:55 | animal that just wants to go down to that waterhole and get drink, and their lunch, their dinner. They're feeding my cubs, okay, they're filling my belly |
| 435 | 01:15:55 --> 01:16:07 | with the meat. It's not impersonal. I don't, I don't dislike or have animosity towards them. But they're their food. And as a trader, you have to strip it down |
| 436 | 01:16:07 --> 01:16:19 | like that, you got to make it simply plain disassembles, that someone's losing money, when you make it. It's a net sum Zero game. So you have to come to terms |
| 437 | 01:16:19 --> 01:16:28 | with that. I don't think there's anything unChristian about that, you know, everything's an investment. So when we are looking at price, if we have |
| 438 | 01:16:28 --> 01:16:38 | something, we can frame it on that weekly chart that allows for at least 50 handles, then I have a lot of opportunity. And multiple timeframes that I can |
| 439 | 01:16:38 --> 01:16:50 | frame that on. And it'd be very easy for me to do it in a sub one minute chart. So that I mean, I'm just going to drop down into a one minute chart here, one |
| 440 | 01:16:50 --> 01:17:03 | second. I gotta tell you, man, I, we just lost our my wife's mother, she just passed away. Finally, we buried her last Friday, and the last couple months had |
| 441 | 01:17:03 --> 01:17:14 | been really rough. And my wife's tore up about it. And she's not here, she's spending time with her father. But I've been wanting to do this to distract |
| 442 | 01:17:14 --> 01:17:24 | myself. But I've not been able to, obviously, I've been able to only do what's necessary as a husband, for my wife and whatnot. But so see what I'm saying, we |
| 443 | 01:17:24 --> 01:17:31 | didn't get to this high, I'm sorry, we didn't get this this low here, we could just get a break above that, and then stop and go lower. So now that we've done |
| 444 | 01:17:31 --> 01:17:39 | this, we can look at lower timeframes. We're in a five minute chart. Now, I'm not gonna go sub one minute, we'll go one minute. So everything we watch in |
| 445 | 01:17:39 --> 01:17:47 | here, we'll see if it pans out and reaches for a fair pay gap. Now we have two potential. Now if I don't want to see that on clothes, I was gonna say if we can |
| 446 | 01:17:47 --> 01:17:56 | keep this one open here. I will treat that as a breakaway. But we're real close to filling that one in. So we'll have to watch and see what it does here. But |
| 447 | 01:17:56 --> 01:18:08 | again, my mindset is we want to see doesn't have the willingness to get the halfway prior to halfway we look to the left, and where are the old lows at not |
| 448 | 01:18:08 --> 01:18:19 | highs, old lows. If it can't get to that level here, which we see it didn't do. What does that indicate? What is it telling you? It's weak, it's really weak. So |
| 449 | 01:18:19 --> 01:18:25 | if it's weak, what would it be reaching for if it's going to go lower? Well, this level here, which is those relative equal lows. |
| 450 | 01:18:32 --> 01:18:48 | Here, I'm on record trading as much on trading hours, sorry. That's these lows here. Oops. Let me go to financial coma. That's these lows here. And that's that |
| 451 | 01:18:48 --> 01:18:55 | larger trading range I was referring to for the majority of the discussion, and then we opened it up. That's where the big pool of liquidity is. And this is the |
| 452 | 01:18:55 --> 01:19:03 | near term sellside liquidity, okay, so that that's where we're at in terms of the drawl, we'll go back down to one minute. |
| 453 | 01:19:10 --> 01:19:20 | Also notice what we're doing now. See, we're bumping up on the bottom of see that shaded area here. But that I show you that was when we were in regular |
| 454 | 01:19:20 --> 01:19:32 | trading hours I showed you where we stopped trading on the previous session. And when we opened up at 930, so that's the opening range gap, the gap was lower. So |
| 455 | 01:19:32 --> 01:19:41 | my focus is I want to see how we trade the first 30 minutes and we're still inside of that we have a nine minute little bit like nine and a half minutes |
| 456 | 01:19:41 --> 01:19:55 | still have the opening range. My interest is this level here and then how we trade below that low. Now look at the left here the left relatively close. And |
| 457 | 01:19:55 --> 01:20:05 | this is the larger pool of liquidity where sell stops are okay If that's your expectation, that's your target. That's your objective. That's the draw on |
| 458 | 01:20:05 --> 01:20:16 | liquidity. So you want to see how price is going to frame a setup to get down there. So we have an opening range, we worked inside the opening range a little |
| 459 | 01:20:16 --> 01:20:22 | bit failed to get up to that old low. So we're gonna take that off, that's at that level was we want to see if we can get up there member, Steve, the trader |
| 460 | 01:20:22 --> 01:20:31 | hypothetical, his model would be the trade to that level. He might have, he might have a model here that doesn't pan out as a winning trade. It would be |
| 461 | 01:20:31 --> 01:20:41 | okay. Other Jane or wherever name was, you know, she's trying to trade a short, so she wants to see something to get into this opening range to go short. She |
| 462 | 01:20:41 --> 01:20:49 | wants to see it go up there, it did it here. Now we have a fair value get right here. That was the other one I was gonna comment on, but looked at this one here |
| 463 | 01:20:49 --> 01:21:01 | earlier. I said it might not leave that one open. And I was gonna use this as a breakaway got this, we want to watch and see does it behave and support the idea |
| 464 | 01:21:01 --> 01:21:10 | that this was the short term premium objective, just to trade up into and then roll over to attack the sell side down here. And you'd be looking at how we went |
| 465 | 01:21:10 --> 01:21:21 | into the opening range. But if it's underlying the week as a market for that given day, like today, does it have the willingness to stay below midpoint of |
| 466 | 01:21:21 --> 01:21:33 | the gap, which is that level right there. Now a trade setup like this, you would not want to use large leverage, not that you really want to use large leverage |
| 467 | 01:21:33 --> 01:21:41 | any anytime, really. But you want to use the smallest leverage on this type of setup. Now why? Because you still have time, we're still inside of the opening |
| 468 | 01:21:41 --> 01:21:50 | range. So there's times when I do enter the first 30 minutes of the trading day between 930 and 10 o'clock. And it's instances like this. But if it would be |
| 469 | 01:21:50 --> 01:22:00 | like this here, my risk is the midpoint in the gap. Think about that. It's not just this high here. Because if it does run up outside the sphere, Vega is not |
| 470 | 01:22:00 --> 01:22:09 | going to go just that this high, is most likely going to run from the midpoint the gap that's algorithmic. There's nothing to frame that one in here, except |
| 471 | 01:22:09 --> 01:22:19 | for the measurement of where we stopped trading the previous day. And where we opened at 930. Let me let me show you and registering ours again, where we |
| 472 | 01:22:19 --> 01:22:28 | stopped trading the opening price here, I'm sorry, the closing price here. And where we opened today. See that right there? That's what this has been framed on |
| 473 | 01:22:28 --> 01:22:30 | those two, let me put on the very specific closing price. |
| 474 | 01:22:36 --> 01:22:50 | Okay, so it's this to that first candle at 930. Whatever that opening prices, that's your opening range gap. And because it's gapped lower, it's a gap that |
| 475 | 01:22:50 --> 01:23:02 | can be traded up into to look for shorts, if you're bearish. You can scalp it and trade up into it. If it's your model to do so, it's a matter of what you |
| 476 | 01:23:02 --> 01:23:12 | feel comfortable doing. There's plenty ways of trading this. Another set would be wait to trace the half point and then go short. Especially if it can spike up |
| 477 | 01:23:12 --> 01:23:21 | but not close. At that low. So onwards, if it trades up here hits that spikes to it and moves away from the next candle. If it breaks lower look for the very |
| 478 | 01:23:21 --> 01:23:33 | first fair value got the shell to sell short on. And your risk would be whatever the highest high would be after sweeping the Bitcoin. Whatever you have the |
| 479 | 01:23:33 --> 01:23:41 | experience and trusting, that's the one you work with. I like the idea of still using this fair value gap here even though we've painted this outside of it a |
| 480 | 01:23:41 --> 01:23:49 | little bit. This too is too much of a draw for me to discount it like I don't I don't want to, I shouldn't say discount, because you're probably thinking |
| 481 | 01:23:49 --> 01:24:00 | something else when I say that. But I don't want to. I don't want to ignore how close we are to this level here. And get caught up in all the semantics about |
| 482 | 01:24:01 --> 01:24:11 | this high being the next run to but if you're taking any trade short, anything below the midpoint of the gap, your risk is the midpoint of the gap. Always it's |
| 483 | 01:24:11 --> 01:24:18 | that's an it's a constant and never changes it never an instance where it's going to be something else. So in other words, if you're taking the trade, it's |
| 484 | 01:24:18 --> 01:24:25 | not like you would take a trade here in the fair value gap and your stock loss will be here just or just above it. That's not That's not correct. You'd have to |
| 485 | 01:24:25 --> 01:24:34 | allow for a stop that goes to the midpoint of the gap. Why would you want to do something like that? We'll look to the left. It's that old low. We didn't try to |
| 486 | 01:24:34 --> 01:24:44 | it might just run up to that level there and still fall short of the fair, the fair Vega but the midpoint of the gap. So that mount of risk. That's not wise |
| 487 | 01:24:45 --> 01:24:55 | they go out and trade. Well my fund account says I can trade 15 contracts. Well, no, no. If it requires you to trade with one micro, then that's what you trade |
| 488 | 01:24:55 --> 01:25:03 | or you don't take the trade. It's simple. You can't argue with the risk manager Get roles, you don't do that the people that argue with the risk management |
| 489 | 01:25:03 --> 01:25:14 | roles, or try to stretch it out because they want to, they want the maximum effect for the profit side, they lose sight of the maximum exposure to risk. And |
| 490 | 01:25:14 --> 01:25:26 | when they get bitten with that half of the equation, it causes damage. And that damage is persistent in the future, it'll always you're not going to go into |
| 491 | 01:25:26 --> 01:25:35 | your next trade and saying, I made a lot of money on the last three trades, I'm winning, if you had a losing trade, and the last 50 trades were winners, you're |
| 492 | 01:25:35 --> 01:25:44 | gonna have trepidation, because you just took a loss. That's that scar tissue. So you have to be mindful of that. And that's a real big problem in trading, |
| 493 | 01:25:44 --> 01:25:55 | because you can get yourself all psyched up to do something. But once you press that button, all the control is gone. You can only stay in the trade, as long as |
| 494 | 01:25:55 --> 01:26:07 | your stop loss or your equity, if you don't use a stop loss allows for it. Or you bail out of it. There's no control at that point. And that's you embracing |
| 495 | 01:26:07 --> 01:26:14 | the uncertainty of your decision, what's the outcome of that decision, you don't know what it's going to do. So you have to have a whole lot of things in your |
| 496 | 01:26:14 --> 01:26:25 | favor. In your analysis, what you expect, what you anticipate, what are problem areas, what are things that's going to be detrimental to you being confident |
| 497 | 01:26:25 --> 01:26:35 | while you're in a trade, all those factors, they need to be sorted out beforehand. If it trades at this level, but not to my stop loss, it's still |
| 498 | 01:26:35 --> 01:26:43 | okay, I'll hold the trade if it does that. But if it does something else beyond that, then I'm going to either take half the trade off, or I'll collapse the |
| 499 | 01:26:43 --> 01:26:53 | trade and just call it a scratch. And whatever the costs were, I'll eat that, you have to be content with that. And so little is spoken of about those types |
| 500 | 01:26:53 --> 01:27:01 | of things. And it's necessary, it's required, like you want to know these things going in, you don't want to discover what it feels like to experience it and not |
| 501 | 01:27:01 --> 01:27:13 | be forewarned about these are things that the guys that I learned from didn't teach me. And I went through that. And it causes a great deal of growing pains. |
| 502 | 01:27:14 --> 01:27:20 | Whereas if you expect it going forward, if someone tells you, hey, look, we're gonna go to the gym, we're going to do this workout routine, because, you know, |
| 503 | 01:27:20 --> 01:27:28 | I've been doing it for 15 years and look at the physique, I'm going to have, you do the same thing, and you're gonna eat the same way. And there it is. But if |
| 504 | 01:27:28 --> 01:27:35 | they don't sit down and say, Look, you're going to be sore as hell, tomorrow and the day after, especially if it's leg day, you're not going to want to do |
| 505 | 01:27:35 --> 01:27:42 | anything, and you're going to look for an excuse to not work out that day, you got a headache, you got to take your kids somewhere else that day, your spouse |
| 506 | 01:27:42 --> 01:27:50 | says you got to do some something else somewhere, you're gonna make a perfect excuse for you not to do it. Whereas if you say, look, you're gonna be sore for |
| 507 | 01:27:50 --> 01:28:00 | the first month, it's going to be a lot of adjustment. But if you take sugar out of your diet, okay, and you eat well, you'll recuperate faster. And it'll just |
| 508 | 01:28:00 --> 01:28:07 | be a normal, like, I had a hard workout day. And that's it. But in first month is going to suck, you're going to want to quit, just grind through that and |
| 509 | 01:28:07 --> 01:28:15 | you'll be fine. That's a better expectation, you're, you're preparing it and you're priming your expectations for this is going to suck for a little while, |
| 510 | 01:28:15 --> 01:28:21 | but I know this is normal. Whereas if you go into trading, you don't know what to expect. And you think you're just going to make money because you pushing |
| 511 | 01:28:21 --> 01:28:34 | buttons is a video game, your discover that it's a whole lot harder. And because human beings are classically not comfortable with anything that are causing |
| 512 | 01:28:34 --> 01:28:42 | adversities, whether it be painful, or emotional, or psychological are all three, because that's all three are checked off when you're trading. You're |
| 513 | 01:28:42 --> 01:28:51 | going to look for the exit ramp immediately. If your first trade is a losing trade, whether it's a demo, whether it's a fun to count challenge, or if you |
| 514 | 01:28:51 --> 01:29:01 | have a funded account, or if you have a live account, your first losing trade, you're baptized in all of the things that every trader has embraced. Every |
| 515 | 01:29:01 --> 01:29:08 | profitable, long term, long term, consistently traded trader that's profitable. They have embraced that uncertainty. They know what it feels like, and it |
| 516 | 01:29:08 --> 01:29:16 | doesn't kill them. We're in the beginning, when you've never experienced that before, it feels like you are doomed to failure forever, and you're never gonna |
| 517 | 01:29:16 --> 01:29:29 | be able to do it. And so many people fall victim to that, and they give up well before they even figure out what it is that you should be doing themselves. All |
| 518 | 01:29:29 --> 01:29:36 | right, we got one minute left of being arranged to be done. So I'm going to see what we do from here. |
| 519 | 01:29:43 --> 01:29:51 | Now that trader I was telling you about earlier, the lady trader hypothetically her model might be you waiting for a high to come in, then trade above that high |
| 520 | 01:29:51 --> 01:29:59 | that would be say, for instance, hurt models turtle suit. She could be selling short above this high, and then her risk would be whatever entry would be. Let's |
| 521 | 01:29:59 --> 01:30:07 | say she She's a little nervous, or she's listening to me today. And she didn't take an entry. She's regretting it. And she just wants to get in right now we're |
| 522 | 01:30:07 --> 01:30:21 | going to stop be, would it be here at this high? About this? Hola. Would it be there? No, her staff house has to be the bad guy. So how much can she risk? |
| 523 | 01:30:21 --> 01:30:33 | Whatever her account affords her for it? Can you know she's risking one quarter of 1%? Yes, one quarter of 1%? Not 4%, not 2%? Because every book talks about |
| 524 | 01:30:34 --> 01:30:44 | one quarter of 1% Why so low ICT? Why are you saying such low risk, I'm trying to make money. No, you're trying to keep your money. Everybody's in a hurry to |
| 525 | 01:30:44 --> 01:30:58 | try to make money and the lost sight of keeping money Capital One preservation capital of the limit the tongue twister, preservation of capital is rule number |
| 526 | 01:30:58 --> 01:31:07 | one. That's the part where if it was a recorded version, it would have been edited out and you would have never known it was there. But rule one is to |
| 527 | 01:31:08 --> 01:31:16 | preserve the capital you have. That means keep the money you have don't lose money just because you want to take trades, you have to take trades that allow |
| 528 | 01:31:16 --> 01:31:25 | for the highest measure of probability in your favor that you can glean from the analysis concepts that you employ, those things have to be stacked up in your |
| 529 | 01:31:25 --> 01:31:35 | favor. And if you don't have a lot of them that make you feel confident, and you can't see that trade doing anything, but that in other words, reaching for your |
| 530 | 01:31:35 --> 01:31:44 | objective, if you can frame the trade, the other side of the trade, that means you're not in high probability. high probability is defined by only being able |
| 531 | 01:31:44 --> 01:31:56 | to define the trade in one direction until that objective is met, then everything becomes gray again. Okay. So if Jane was a turtle soup trader, and |
| 532 | 01:31:56 --> 01:32:05 | she was looking to see the market trade up into the opening range, and then fail and move lower. She her entry mechanism could be turtle soup, it could be |
| 533 | 01:32:05 --> 01:32:18 | selling above this high, and her stock cannot be that high. Oh, it would be if it was mine, not me. It wouldn't be me. Because the characteristic of a gap this |
| 534 | 01:32:18 --> 01:32:31 | large is it tends not always, but it tends to do more of trading to the midpoint the gap than it does for not to do that. In planar terms, if you're trying to |
| 535 | 01:32:31 --> 01:32:42 | sell short on a lower gap opening, always allow for and afford a move back to the midpoint of the gap. That's the plainest and simplest way I can say it. And |
| 536 | 01:32:42 --> 01:32:50 | that means it might not be a day that you can take a trade on, because the risk is too large. Is there something wrong with that? Some are you expressing people |
| 537 | 01:32:50 --> 01:33:01 | in Tik Tok and Instagram and Twitter? Oh, that's stupid. Oh, that's stupid. Okay, come out here and do it. Deal with it. You won't do that. But you'll be a |
| 538 | 01:33:01 --> 01:33:08 | painted and you'll try to distract other people that are trying to learn how to do it or develop because misery loves company. So you have to be really, you |
| 539 | 01:33:08 --> 01:33:17 | have to be very guarded. With allowing people into your development, the period of time when you're trying to find yourself as a trader, you got to really |
| 540 | 01:33:17 --> 01:33:23 | filter out all the bullshit, because there's a lot of people out there, they're going to tell you stuff that have no bearing on what you as a trader are going |
| 541 | 01:33:23 --> 01:33:35 | to do. When you reach your model. When you reach your approach that you feel comfortable in. You want to be able to say that you define that model based on |
| 542 | 01:33:35 --> 01:33:43 | your own exposure, the study, and the things that you saw personally, you don't take in somebody else's word for it, you're not listening to me, you're not |
| 543 | 01:33:43 --> 01:33:52 | taking my word for it, I can only guide you to where to study. And if these things resonate with you, whatever, whatever pdra whatever specific model |
| 544 | 01:33:53 --> 01:34:00 | resonates with you. That's the one you start with, it does not mean that's the model that you're going to have five years from now, when you're consistently |
| 545 | 01:34:00 --> 01:34:09 | profitable, it means you may have a variant of that. But you have to have something that gives you a baseline evaluation on what it is that makes you |
| 546 | 01:34:09 --> 01:34:17 | tick. How do you think, what are your impulses? What are your weaknesses in terms of responding to information that's being presented to you real time when |
| 547 | 01:34:17 --> 01:34:26 | you're watching price action, if you're not aware of how you're going to react when price does specific things, it doesn't matter whose model or what approach |
| 548 | 01:34:26 --> 01:34:33 | you're using, you're going to be at the mercy of your emotions while you're doing whatever it is you're doing. And there's nothing worse than making money |
| 549 | 01:34:33 --> 01:34:43 | and being scared shitless while it's happening. It's a terrifying feeling. Even when you're having the biggest profitable day, if you're honest with yourself, |
| 550 | 01:34:44 --> 01:34:50 | okay, and some of your smile. I'm thinking I've been there. I don't know how that happened. And I was scared to death. And I didn't know what to do. I was |
| 551 | 01:34:50 --> 01:35:00 | paralyzed. Like I didn't have a limit order in and the market went way beyond where I thought was gonna go but I was terrified. I didn't know what to do. You |
| 552 | 01:35:00 --> 01:35:07 | don't ever want to be in a situation like that. And you certainly don't want to be a situation like that when you're on the losing side of it. Because that's |
| 553 | 01:35:07 --> 01:35:15 | where accounts get blown up, you start looking for an argument in price. No, no, no, this is probably going to be the last time it makes that low, and it's going |
| 554 | 01:35:15 --> 01:35:22 | to go up, and you argue with it, and then it takes that lower Okay, well, it was just going to take that one out. And you know, it can't go any lower, because |
| 555 | 01:35:22 --> 01:35:28 | it's been going down for three and a half hours. And we still have time to do this and do that. And there's some squiggly line or ICT said something in the |
| 556 | 01:35:28 --> 01:35:37 | video, some obscure lesson somewhere, I'm gonna hang all my hopes and prayers on that thing panning out right here, when that's not even in the price action, but |
| 557 | 01:35:37 --> 01:35:49 | you're gonna find any excuse to just do rule number one. capital preservation, you have to have money to do this. If you don't have equity, you don't have a |
| 558 | 01:35:49 --> 01:36:01 | trade. If you can't trade, you can't profit, right. So you have to do everything you can to remove the likelihood or the tendency for human nature to show |
| 559 | 01:36:01 --> 01:36:14 | itself, which means to act out of emotional response, or a psychological response to adversity. And you don't know what adversity feels like until you |
| 560 | 01:36:14 --> 01:36:25 | put a real trade on. When you have real money at risk, I don't care if it's the smallest amount of money you're concerned about the outcome is greatly magnified |
| 561 | 01:36:25 --> 01:36:38 | beyond the scope of reasonable. If you went outside, and you lost 50 bucks, it sucks, suddenly found 50 bucks, whatever good luck to you. But if you get into a |
| 562 | 01:36:38 --> 01:36:49 | trade, and you're risking 50 bucks, and it's floating at $45, before it hits that ATR stop loss, you're going to have anxiety. Not because that $50 breaks |
| 563 | 01:36:49 --> 01:37:01 | and you can't pay your bills, not because you had a losing trade. But because you don't want to have that notch against you, that you were wrong. You've |
| 564 | 01:37:01 --> 01:37:12 | equated that being right or wrong, being more valuable or more impactful detrimental to you as a trader, than agreeing with the fact that you limited |
| 565 | 01:37:12 --> 01:37:23 | your risk to $50. And you're thankful that when you do get stopped out, it didn't take more than that. Not enough is, is said or taught about that. And but |
| 566 | 01:37:23 --> 01:37:34 | these are major barriers to what causes people to not be able to be consistently profitable, or ever profitable. Or find a model that they're comfortable with. |
| 567 | 01:37:35 --> 01:37:47 | And that's what complicates this industry and what we do, because the human element that you bring to it, your characteristics, as a human, your character |
| 568 | 01:37:47 --> 01:38:00 | flaws, and your strengths are all going to impact both good and bad, mostly bad. The growing phase of being a trader, and everybody wants it to be short and |
| 569 | 01:38:00 --> 01:38:07 | sweet, real direct one to give me a one minute trainer, five minute trainer gets into point ICT, the point is, is you're going to have to work your ass off. And |
| 570 | 01:38:07 --> 01:38:15 | you're going to discover whether you learn it from me or someone else's discipline, how to trade, if they can make money and they can do it properly. |
| 571 | 01:38:15 --> 01:38:22 | And they have proof that they trained other people and are able to do it on our own and they're profitable. That's someone that you can listen to. They don't |
| 572 | 01:38:22 --> 01:38:30 | have to use PDAs. They don't have to use fair value gaps in order blocks, if they have something that works, and they've trained other people, and they have |
| 573 | 01:38:30 --> 01:38:38 | proven that they have taught that mindset, that skill set these concepts, and it's applicable in their own hands, not requiring them to tell them what to do |
| 574 | 01:38:38 --> 01:38:48 | with it. That someone that you can listen to spend time with them. And you're still going to encounter all these adversities because you're bringing it to the |
| 575 | 01:38:48 --> 01:38:58 | table. These other educators, these other disciplines of trading, they're not the reason why you're not making money. You are just like my students that don't |
| 576 | 01:38:58 --> 01:39:06 | make money with the things that I teach. It's their problem. It's their shortcoming. It's their excuse. They're the they're the problem. Every single |
| 577 | 01:39:06 --> 01:39:16 | one of us have to own that. And in this industry at a time that we're in it, you know, social media has cultivated the victim mentality, oh, I'm a victim. No, |
| 578 | 01:39:16 --> 01:39:23 | you're not. You're a lazy ass shithead. And you need to learn how to do this the right way. and own it. If you make a mistake, own it. |
| 579 | 01:39:25 --> 01:39:33 | If you get out there and you do something, and you make a mistake, own it, learn from it. Because every single trade, you're learning something about yourself, |
| 580 | 01:39:33 --> 01:39:41 | you're not learning about trading, you're not learning about the market, you're learning about you. Because your model should be static. It should not have |
| 581 | 01:39:41 --> 01:39:49 | moving parts, it should stay exactly how you designed it. And when you started implementing it, it stays like that. You don't change it. If you tinker around |
| 582 | 01:39:49 --> 01:39:58 | with it, then your baseline foundation of results. You can't trust that if you're always constantly changing and morphing, what it is you're trying to do. |
| 583 | 01:39:59 --> 01:40:08 | How could you try See the outcome and the results that you're getting that they could be reasonable to expect in the future to be similar in any vein, to what |
| 584 | 01:40:08 --> 01:40:15 | you've done with it in the past, if you're constantly changing it, you're moving all the components that cause those previous results. So you can't trust the |
| 585 | 01:40:15 --> 01:40:27 | results to be the same. So you have to have something that's simple, very few moving parts, it doesn't require a whole lot of acrobatics to do it. And you |
| 586 | 01:40:27 --> 01:40:37 | have to be comfortable when it isn't telling you to do something. And that is very hard. Because everybody wants to keep up with everybody else on social |
| 587 | 01:40:37 --> 01:40:48 | media, and social media is a bunch of liars. There's a bunch of liars out there. Okay. And they'll say this, they'll say that. And where's the fruits of it? |
| 588 | 01:40:50 --> 01:40:59 | Where's it? So if this stuff works, you'll see it work in your own hands. That's, that's the testimony that you have someone that you have chosen |
| 589 | 01:40:59 --> 01:41:08 | correctly, as a starting point, it doesn't mean you'll stay with that discipline or that model. But you have to learn a lot about yourself. And why is it |
| 590 | 01:41:08 --> 01:41:21 | important? Because when you understand how you derail yourself, when you find a point where these are things I tend to make repeatedly, and I don't like the way |
| 591 | 01:41:21 --> 01:41:30 | I feel when it when I do it. And I don't get the results that I like when I do it. So what would what would you do differently? When you start feeling the |
| 592 | 01:41:30 --> 01:41:42 | impulse to act out that way, or think that way? Or trade? That way? You don't do it? You sit still, and you watch and see what would have happened. If you did |
| 593 | 01:41:42 --> 01:41:51 | that, that what does that do? Number one, it builds accountability in yourself. It builds self discipline, which is absolutely crucial for this. Otherwise, |
| 594 | 01:41:51 --> 01:42:04 | you'll get out there and blow 40,000 hours without using a stop loss. This whole business of wrestling yourself. Bringing yourself into submission to a rule |
| 595 | 01:42:04 --> 01:42:19 | based idea is absolutely paramount. Because unless you control your impulses, unless you control your tendencies to act out of the model, you're not going to |
| 596 | 01:42:19 --> 01:42:29 | stick to the model. And you can't credit that model for being profitable or unprofitable. If you do that. So what are you really doing? You're gambling and |
| 597 | 01:42:29 --> 01:42:36 | you're guessing, and when it wins, you're gonna say you have a winning model. And when it loses, you're gonna say that model sucks when neither of those |
| 598 | 01:42:36 --> 01:42:48 | statements are true. Think about what I just said there. Because most of you are doing that right now and have been doing it for years probably expecting |
| 599 | 01:42:48 --> 01:42:58 | something different to happen. When you are the constant, you're the constant derailment. You're the person that's driving this car right into every tree that |
| 600 | 01:42:58 --> 01:43:07 | comes up. Boom, there's a treat I'm gonna run right into that. I don't know why I ran off the rails I lost control the vehicle. No, you didn't you steered right |
| 601 | 01:43:07 --> 01:43:20 | into it. You aimed right at it just like that cargo ship didn't Baltimore? Hello. How do we a little while before we started talking about? It looked for |
| 602 | 01:43:20 --> 01:43:32 | less stuff in the beginning of videos. But listen, there's a time to take a trade, there's a time to sit still. There are times where you would have to wait |
| 603 | 01:43:32 --> 01:43:46 | for more information. Now we've had now the first 30 minutes is behind us. We've only taken one run of any importance here with this high right there. We're |
| 604 | 01:43:46 --> 01:43:56 | consolidating, I still like the idea that we move lower, but it has to show some major displacement here. And it needs to go below that loads before it happens. |
| 605 | 01:43:56 --> 01:44:06 | Or before I would feel like it's it's inclined to trade to that sell side, I would not want to sell it short here. I would not want to do that. I would not |
| 606 | 01:44:06 --> 01:44:12 | want to buy this. Okay, I don't care if it rages and goes and fills the gap. That would be a trade, I wouldn't be a part of that system. And I just wouldn't |
| 607 | 01:44:12 --> 01:44:23 | be participating in that trade. There are trades that jump out that aren't in my expectation. And I can't I can't participate in as a younger man. It used to |
| 608 | 01:44:23 --> 01:44:35 | make me angry. And I would go back and beat myself up and say, Why didn't I see that then? And that is a that's a problem. That is a barrier to your |
| 609 | 01:44:35 --> 01:44:45 | development. And it was to mine when I did those types of things. And that's why I tell my students when you're journaling. You sweet talk yourself. You're your |
| 610 | 01:44:45 --> 01:44:53 | best friend. You're your comforting counselor like you were in school and you had a problem whatever. I went through a lot of counseling in school. It was |
| 611 | 01:44:53 --> 01:45:04 | very hard for me to wrestle my motions, broken, broken family, all kinds of stuff and going through puberty, all these things as a kid, they No one sat me |
| 612 | 01:45:04 --> 01:45:12 | down, said I was going to experience all this stuff. And it's I felt like I wanted to act out violently. So talking to yourself, like you're a counselor, |
| 613 | 01:45:12 --> 01:45:21 | you know yourself, you know what you want to hear, you know how to console yourself. But you also know how to rev yourself up. Just think about what that |
| 614 | 01:45:21 --> 01:45:30 | last girlfriend did, do you look at what that guy did it work and got the promotion, and what you did in response to the boss's expectations, they got the |
| 615 | 01:45:30 --> 01:45:37 | promotion, but you did more work and you weren't identified, it's real easy for you to get stirred up. Think about that person made a comment on your Twitter |
| 616 | 01:45:37 --> 01:45:44 | post. Think about that person that talks about your trading results, even though you're making money, but they're talking nonsense, and but they bring nothing to |
| 617 | 01:45:44 --> 01:45:54 | the table to show a contrarian opinion. But you, it's easy to get revved up. So in your journal, you only sweet talk yourself. And when you have an opportunity |
| 618 | 01:45:54 --> 01:46:03 | to encourage yourself to do something different, or address something that's problematic to say, I appreciate this day, because it gives me the opportunity |
| 619 | 01:46:03 --> 01:46:12 | to identify a very specific thing that I need to correct in my learning. Versus man, I screwed up and I lost the day, I'm never gonna get this, this is |
| 620 | 01:46:12 --> 01:46:22 | bullshit. Your journal is not a place to complain about yourself. As soon as you put thought to it, number one, you've already anchored it to your subconscious. |
| 621 | 01:46:24 --> 01:46:37 | If you write it out, you've recorded it outwardly. You made a decision to record it outside of your thought you've recorded it. So you anchored it now, not only |
| 622 | 01:46:37 --> 01:46:45 | psychologically, but now it's emotionally anchored. So what if you made reference to that your subconscious is going to revert back to when you take the |
| 623 | 01:46:45 --> 01:46:58 | next trade, that emotional stimuli that you've placed on something that you can't change, or go back and redo. You have no idea, the compounding influence |
| 624 | 01:46:58 --> 01:47:09 | that that has on a negative perspective. And you have to constantly reassure yourself, that what you're doing is a growth process. And you encourage yourself |
| 625 | 01:47:09 --> 01:47:18 | along the way. And anything that was adverse, something that was hardship for the day, or the opportunity, or if something didn't pan out. |
| 626 | 01:47:19 --> 01:47:31 | You need to teach yourself how to see the example of learning from that without pain. And you always record the fact that you say, I'm thankful for I |
| 627 | 01:47:31 --> 01:47:42 | appreciate, or I'm so happy that I had the opportunity to learn this without having any monetary loss. I don't feel physical pain from this. But I can take |
| 628 | 01:47:42 --> 01:47:52 | from this experience, the ability to see how if I don't identify these consistently, this could be detrimental to me and cause drawdown. And I'm glad |
| 629 | 01:47:52 --> 01:48:00 | that I had the opportunity not to experience that today. So what you've done is, yeah, you you identified you did something wrong, or you didn't observe |
| 630 | 01:48:00 --> 01:48:08 | something, but you're not beating yourself up. Like if you take it to social media, no one's going to encourage you on social media, because nobody on social |
| 631 | 01:48:08 --> 01:48:15 | media wants you to do better than them. It's just like your friends and family. And it sounds ugly. But that's what we are as humans, we're ugly little |
| 632 | 01:48:15 --> 01:48:23 | creatures that don't like to see other people do well. But I want to see you do well. I do want to see that many times, my interest in your success is more than |
| 633 | 01:48:23 --> 01:48:36 | yours. And my profitable students all had that mindset that they had to come up to my level of expectation of themselves, because their expectation was too low. |
| 634 | 01:48:37 --> 01:48:47 | Their energy level was too low. Their study and time that they were wanting to put forth into this wasn't enough. And they were expecting immediate |
| 635 | 01:48:47 --> 01:48:56 | gratification, immediate results, or it's all bullshit. And it's not like that at all. Like anything. It's going to take effort, it's going to take time, but |
| 636 | 01:48:56 --> 01:49:06 | you're trying to learn the hardest thing in the world, which is master yourself with a monetary reward or punishment. Man, you can't get anything more complex |
| 637 | 01:49:06 --> 01:49:15 | than that. The only thing it's more complex than that is taking a one bullet, put it in a revolver, spin it around and put it to your temple and click it. |
| 638 | 01:49:15 --> 01:49:26 | That's the only thing that does this in terms of measuring the absolute pain and outcome, because that's what you're doing. You're playing that game here. |
| 639 | 01:49:26 --> 01:49:35 | Russian roulette with your money, one trade at a time. Because that one trade while initially you might have a stoploss that has an X amount of money, that's |
| 640 | 01:49:35 --> 01:49:46 | a percentage of your equity in total. If you don't get the response that you wanted the end you're going to spend the revolvers cylinder again and click it |
| 641 | 01:49:46 --> 01:49:56 | again until you blow your brains out. And your accounts gone. You won't go into that trading day wanting that to happen. No one ever really wants to go there |
| 642 | 01:49:56 --> 01:50:06 | today's the day I want to blow my account. And that's that's not how that works. But it always after the fact when you're sitting here in torment, like I could |
| 643 | 01:50:06 --> 01:50:17 | have stopped, I told myself don't take another trade, but you were pissed off, and you need an outcome. And may have you need a hard stop where you're |
| 644 | 01:50:17 --> 01:50:24 | completely removed from it because you can't control yourself. And that's what blown your account does. And subconsciously, that's what you want. Because what |
| 645 | 01:50:24 --> 01:50:33 | you're saying subconsciously is I can't control myself, please let me lose the money so that we aren't going to do this anymore. And for some of you, that just |
| 646 | 01:50:33 --> 01:50:46 | hit a nerve. When I was 20, I felt that multiple times, I wanted to feel like I couldn't do it at all. So therefore I don't have to do any more effort to try to |
| 647 | 01:50:46 --> 01:50:58 | make it work. It gives me the perfect excuse why I don't have to try anymore. But I tried. And I saved that money. And I delivered pizza. And I delivered |
| 648 | 01:50:58 --> 01:51:14 | subs. And I did dumb stuff to get money to get it all raised up again. And I found that other account and try and try and try. But subconsciously, I wasn't |
| 649 | 01:51:14 --> 01:51:28 | equipped, no one was encouraging me. No one was encouraging me while I first started, it didn't happen like that. And I tried to be practical, but yet firm |
| 650 | 01:51:28 --> 01:51:38 | with you as a listener and as constant reader as a student. That these are the realities of this in the expectation you have in yourself as a trader or the |
| 651 | 01:51:38 --> 01:51:49 | markets yielding itself to you. It doesn't work like that. It doesn't owe you a payout simply because you spent time in front of these charts. We are not |
| 652 | 01:51:49 --> 01:51:57 | worshipping at an altar of the price action God that says you've worshipped me enough and paid enough arms to me. So now I'm going to bestow upon you Bountiful |
| 653 | 01:51:57 --> 01:52:10 | Blessings in terms of monetary reward. It doesn't work like that. It's war. It's war. It's internal. And its external. You're competing with the most ruthless |
| 654 | 01:52:10 --> 01:52:24 | people on the planet. And now more than ever, it's never been this corrupt. It's never been this in your face, in your face. Fu, I'm going to do whatever I can |
| 655 | 01:52:24 --> 01:52:42 | to hurt that and victimize everyone else because they can. So it's very complex. But it's the easiest thing you ever do. It's the easiest thing you ever do. Push |
| 656 | 01:52:42 --> 01:52:51 | a button, if you're right, you make money. There's a whole lot of stuff that goes on before that pressing that button. And it's a whole lot of other factors |
| 657 | 01:52:51 --> 01:53:08 | that happen. Once you press that button. It's the hardest easy money you'll ever make. So the only combat tactic you can employ is you have the ability, okay, |
| 658 | 01:53:08 --> 01:53:20 | you have the ability to limit how much barring some kind of, you know, geopolitical or wartime event where obviously the market could just go. And it's |
| 659 | 01:53:20 --> 01:53:28 | 500 points away from where it's at right now. Drop a nuclear bomb somewhere and watch how fast this market will forget all about daily limits. It'll be |
| 660 | 01:53:29 --> 01:53:41 | completely outside of the normal. Okay, and you're about to see that, by the way, just let you know that. And if you can control barring that example there. |
| 661 | 01:53:43 --> 01:53:58 | You have control of that you have control of how often? And how much you're willing to risk on any given transaction or trade. And how does your mind think |
| 662 | 01:53:59 --> 01:54:09 | right now, at the time of this discussion that we're having here, or me lecturing, really because you're not talking to me? How much are you computing |
| 663 | 01:54:09 --> 01:54:21 | and calculating when you're trying to take a trade right now? What is it based on how much you can make? Or how much you can keep yourself from losing? We |
| 664 | 01:54:21 --> 01:54:33 | already know. We already know that you're not thinking about how much I can prevent the maximum of loss and what's the least I can lose and still find |
| 665 | 01:54:33 --> 01:54:43 | profitability. See, nobody's doing that. Nobody's doing that. They're all saying, Okay, I had X amount of money in my account. So therefore, I can afford |
| 666 | 01:54:43 --> 01:54:52 | to trade this much leverage because this is what I can afford. And if I can, that means if I'm right, I can make as much as I possibly can, based on the |
| 667 | 01:54:52 --> 01:55:07 | maximum leverage that the trade can be used to be applied to that individual setup. And that's wrong. Every single time as a young man, I blew an account, I |
| 668 | 01:55:07 --> 01:55:19 | did those same things. And they were the constant things I was doing, always. And the second thing that you're in control of, but you lose sight of this. How |
| 669 | 01:55:19 --> 01:55:27 | frequently and when you take the next trade, it's it's imperative, you understand that when I was journaling, when I first started journaling, they |
| 670 | 01:55:27 --> 01:55:39 | were all negative, like, I was beating myself up constantly. And that's one of the things I grew most from, is not being toxic in my self evaluation. So I |
| 671 | 01:55:39 --> 01:55:49 | removed all that stuff. And I when I learned how to manage anxiety, and I had a gore phobia, when I was a younger man, one of the coping skills that you use to |
| 672 | 01:55:49 --> 01:56:02 | overcome that is, well, first it was Jesus Christ, help me get rid of that. But the, the physical things that had to do to help cope was doing simple things of |
| 673 | 01:56:02 --> 01:56:12 | trying not to think negative, and speaking negative. And Lucinda Bassett, who was the lady I bought the books from. If you have any sense of anxiety while |
| 674 | 01:56:12 --> 01:56:22 | you're trading, or unrealistic fear or generalized anxiety, I would recommend any of her books. She She, she lived with the same thing that I was going |
| 675 | 01:56:22 --> 01:56:31 | through and but it's self inflicted, like no one, no one wakes up or is born with this stuff. You learn to be anxious, you learn how to be a toxic thinker, |
| 676 | 01:56:31 --> 01:56:40 | you learn that it doesn't happen overnight. It's we do it all the time. And one of the things that she said in her book was count how many times you think of |
| 677 | 01:56:40 --> 01:56:47 | something negative in a day, as soon as you think of something negative, you know, put a little checkmark, you know, on a piece of paper or something to |
| 678 | 01:56:47 --> 01:56:56 | effect. And the average person thinks negative thoughts about themselves or something that they're gonna be involved in over 300 times a day. And then you |
| 679 | 01:56:56 --> 01:57:04 | look at what the media does. What's the news tell you nothing good. It's always bad, bad bad. This is dying, someone's died, someone's murdered someone stole |
| 680 | 01:57:04 --> 01:57:11 | something, someone blew up. Somebody's breaking somebody's state got this knocked off. And now that's their people died. They're never telling you, hey, |
| 681 | 01:57:11 --> 01:57:14 | you know what? You're all doing a good job in this area. |
| 682 | 01:57:16 --> 01:57:25 | Well, why won't they do that? Because the negative cells and they want to sell advertising time. So if I'm trying to do something, which is very difficult, and |
| 683 | 01:57:25 --> 01:57:34 | I apologize if you hear my landscapers outside, they just arrived. But I'm going to keep talking. Because I feel good about doing this. The I've been bottled up |
| 684 | 01:57:34 --> 01:57:44 | and it's been months, I had to get this off my chest. I've been so many times we might want to talk about some stuff. But when we think about these negative |
| 685 | 01:57:44 --> 01:58:01 | thoughts, and we and we put it in our journal. We're making mountains out of molehills and when we stopped doing those things, and we identify the fact that |
| 686 | 01:58:01 --> 01:58:09 | okay, yeah, I'm human, you're human, you're gonna make mistakes. But you have to find a way to incur it. Like, for instance, when you have if you have a child |
| 687 | 01:58:11 --> 01:58:19 | when your child is first learning how to ride a bike, okay? Everybody wants their child to get on the bike and pedal and just know how to do it right away. |
| 688 | 01:58:19 --> 01:58:27 | Okay, deadbeat dads, they want to just be able to get out there for maybe five minutes and hold the seat and they ain't got to worry about it anymore. I was |
| 689 | 01:58:27 --> 01:58:35 | emotionally and psychologically invested in making sure my kids know how to do this. I prepared them. I told them, I said, look, it's going to be scary. Okay, |
| 690 | 01:58:35 --> 01:58:44 | you're going to be pedaling. And you're gonna be thinking about how it's gonna hurt if you fall down. But I want you to identify the fact that even when you do |
| 691 | 01:58:44 --> 01:58:54 | learn how to ride a bike, Dad's broke bones, trying to jump over tires, you know, in ramps and stuff because you are not just happy with riding the bike. |
| 692 | 01:58:54 --> 01:59:02 | Like in anything in life, you say, Okay, well, I've done this, let me expand my reach. So it's not enough to be enjoying the safety of riding the bike |
| 693 | 01:59:02 --> 01:59:13 | responsibly. Now, we had to jump three tractor trailer tires, and light the tires on fire. And do so with a T shirt doused in gasoline and try not to get |
| 694 | 01:59:13 --> 01:59:22 | burned. That's the stupid stuff we did in Middle River. It was stupid. And I ended up breaking a finger and chipping a bone in my wrist. Okay, so even though |
| 695 | 01:59:22 --> 01:59:29 | I knew how to ride a bike, I was doing things that were not saying, okay, like the rest of the kids in the neighborhood. We did their devil stuff. So I told |
| 696 | 01:59:29 --> 01:59:37 | them, as long as you understand what you're trying to do, and you ride responsibly, and you wear your helmet, your knee pads and your gloves and you |
| 697 | 01:59:37 --> 01:59:45 | fall down. You might have hurt yourself a little bit. But even when you do learn how to ride the bike, well, you still have the risk of that happening. So that's |
| 698 | 01:59:45 --> 01:59:53 | never gonna go away. Do you still want to ride the bike? Yes, that Okay, good. Then when you're riding the bike, I'm going to be holding the seat for you. But |
| 699 | 01:59:53 --> 02:00:05 | then you lie. You're going to lie to your child. I got your son I got As your daughter, you're not holding your hands, they're pantomiming. Why? Because |
| 700 | 02:00:05 --> 02:00:15 | you're giving them the chance to trust what they're doing works. And when you're journaling, you're doing that same thing. That self talk is lying to yourself, |
| 701 | 02:00:15 --> 02:00:23 | you're lying to yourself that you are not feeling pain that day, because you did something wrong, or you didn't do something, right. That's two different things. |
| 702 | 02:00:23 --> 02:00:33 | By the way, it sounds like the same thing, but it's not. And when you journal, you'll discover what that is. But you're sweet talking yourself constantly, |
| 703 | 02:00:33 --> 02:00:39 | you're encouraging yourself, you're counseling yourself, it's okay, everybody has hardships, everybody's going to lose money, everyone's going to miss |
| 704 | 02:00:39 --> 02:00:45 | opportunities, it's going to be harder than you thought it was going to be. It's going to take you longer to get there. But you constantly feed yourself positive |
| 705 | 02:00:45 --> 02:00:53 | self talk, say, Hey, I'm going to I'm going to do this come hell or high water. Unless I'm not breathing, and I'm not hearing this plane of existence, then I'm |
| 706 | 02:00:53 --> 02:01:03 | not going to stop doing this because I want to do this. Because I want to do it. Not because I want to make money. Because that's not enough of a driving force |
| 707 | 02:01:03 --> 02:01:13 | to do this, I promise you that, if you just want to make money, that's not going to be the thing that keeps you in this. Because if it was, Why do all these |
| 708 | 02:01:13 --> 02:01:24 | folks out there that never make money still keep trying to do it. It's something beyond the money. And if they just apply the right approaches to learning, and |
| 709 | 02:01:24 --> 02:01:33 | they manage their emotions and their psychology around learning how to do this and manage it, their their expectations and make it realistic, they have a far |
| 710 | 02:01:33 --> 02:01:43 | better chance of enjoying the process of learning. And when they arrive, they won't be like, Man, this was so hard to get here. Because they will be much more |
| 711 | 02:01:43 --> 02:01:52 | well rounded as a person as a trader. And understanding those dynamics going into this is really important. And I spend a lot of time in all my lectures |
| 712 | 02:01:52 --> 02:02:01 | talking about it. And until the students that try to use my concepts, try to do it without that mindset going into it. And then they suffer because they don't |
| 713 | 02:02:01 --> 02:02:10 | know what they're doing, or even how to handle themselves when he had just one adverse result, one result that was not in the direction or in the manner they |
| 714 | 02:02:10 --> 02:02:18 | expected. Or in other words, it was not a positive return. Because they impulsively did something 99% of the times when I had a student saying I tried |
| 715 | 02:02:18 --> 02:02:26 | this and didn't work. Okay, show me your trade. What did you do? What What was your? What was your pre market analysis was you expecting? Nothing, none of them |
| 716 | 02:02:26 --> 02:02:34 | most of the time had a pre market expectation. They were just reacting, they saw the first variable you get, or they saw the first relative equal lows or highs |
| 717 | 02:02:34 --> 02:02:42 | and they think well, they're on the chart. So therefore it has to go there. No, go back to what I was saying that cookie cutter, that cookie cutter is your |
| 718 | 02:02:42 --> 02:02:50 | model, how does it start, you have to be on a higher timeframe chart, weekly chart, that weekly chart that's going to pan out this week or the week that's |
| 719 | 02:02:50 --> 02:02:59 | come if you're looking at the market for the weekend, like it's not trading during Friday night into, oh, it's a Sunday morning. Sunday, we have the markets |
| 720 | 02:02:59 --> 02:03:09 | open up later in afternoon or evening. But during that dead time, when there is no market activity, you have to know what you're trying to do what you're aiming |
| 721 | 02:03:09 --> 02:03:17 | for. Otherwise, you're like a boat without a rudder, wherever the winds going to carry in the current that, oh, this is where it got me. You don't want to have |
| 722 | 02:03:17 --> 02:03:28 | that mindset as a trader, you want to know what you're aiming for. And only use your model as your rudder to navigate that same current. And those same winds |
| 723 | 02:03:28 --> 02:03:35 | that are gonna be blowing with everybody else out there in the marketplace, you're going to navigate it the way your model requires you to do so. And if you |
| 724 | 02:03:35 --> 02:03:44 | can't get to that destination, because the current or the winds of the market, say no, you're not getting this way, you're not going to get here today, then |
| 725 | 02:03:44 --> 02:03:51 | you're content with Okay, I'm done. I'm not going to go out there and wreck my boat. I'm not going to sink my boat, trying to force something that can't happen |
| 726 | 02:03:51 --> 02:04:00 | that day, because the currents are not going to allow for cruise ships. Think about it. They're not saying where's the hurricane because I want to go right |
| 727 | 02:04:00 --> 02:04:08 | there. We want to give these people a real experience today. Nobody's doing that no cruise lines out there saying where's the worst weather we can drive these |
| 728 | 02:04:08 --> 02:04:18 | people through. Because unless the boats are rockin, they haven't a good time. So in trading, you're going to have to have those times where you navigate the |
| 729 | 02:04:18 --> 02:04:27 | storms. And that gonna prevent you from making money. And it may take money from you. And guess what, if you're not prepared for that, it sucks. And it's going |
| 730 | 02:04:27 --> 02:04:39 | to cause you to be fearful or not willing to take the same measured risk, the same setup that your model costs for the next opportunity that prints business |
| 731 | 02:04:39 --> 02:04:52 | itself. You'll be too fearful of the last transactions outcome. And you're going to immortalize the way you feel physically and emotionally, psychologically |
| 732 | 02:04:53 --> 02:05:01 | every possible negative thought or experience about it and you're going to place that in your journal. And now you solidified that as a traumatic experience and |
| 733 | 02:05:01 --> 02:05:13 | now you have PTSD. For something that doesn't kill you tradings not killing you. But I have friends that are no longer here, because they allowed their results, |
| 734 | 02:05:13 --> 02:05:28 | not the market, their results, trying to chase Bollinger Bands, insisting that that was the that was the thing for it. And he didn't want to be here anymore |
| 735 | 02:05:28 --> 02:05:40 | because of that. That's not someone that's a bad trader, that's someone that's not in control and responsible with themselves. It will be no different if they |
| 736 | 02:05:40 --> 02:05:49 | would have had their money and went to the casinos all the time. And the outcome would have been the same, because they did not have a stable mindset. And their |
| 737 | 02:05:49 --> 02:05:58 | results and trading was simply the catalyst that would have happened with anything they would have done. So you have to, you have to be very guarded. With |
| 738 | 02:05:58 --> 02:06:06 | your expectation, the influence that you're receiving outwardly, the worst thing you could do is tell anybody you're learning how to trade? Don't ever tell |
| 739 | 02:06:06 --> 02:06:16 | anybody that? Because you're gonna get all the worst advice from people that don't even do it. They've never all you're gonna I'm never gonna show you |
| 740 | 02:06:17 --> 02:06:27 | before. No, that's why I've never I won't tell you to do it, because I won't do it. Oh, every one of my family members said that. Every one of my friends said |
| 741 | 02:06:27 --> 02:06:38 | that. And you go online, and you're asking strangers that give you their opinion about your choice of learning to do this. And they're the same people working at |
| 742 | 02:06:38 --> 02:06:47 | Jiffy Lube. Same people that can't make their bills every week, and they're miserable. And they want to have someone feel like they listened to their |
| 743 | 02:06:47 --> 02:06:58 | advice. And that makes him significant. In this industry, everybody is a smartass. Everybody has a opinion that matters. But so few of them should be |
| 744 | 02:06:58 --> 02:07:04 | listened to. They shouldn't be listened to at all, if you're really going to be diligent. |
| 745 | 02:07:06 --> 02:07:14 | You learn a method. Okay, wonderful. But while you're trying to do something in the marketplace, you should have no outside influence. Don't ask anybody's |
| 746 | 02:07:14 --> 02:07:22 | opinion. What do you think it's going to be bullish or bearish unless you're trying to support the idea from a sentiment perspective. But let's be honest, |
| 747 | 02:07:22 --> 02:07:29 | most of you aren't doing that, as a new trader, you're looking for someone that you think on a whim. They probably know what they're doing, because they showed |
| 748 | 02:07:29 --> 02:07:39 | something yesterday, or someone's talking about this person made this much money. So therefore, I'm going to trust their view on the marketplace today, and |
| 749 | 02:07:39 --> 02:07:45 | I'm going to put money behind it. And if I make money, I'm going to tell my friends, I made money, but you're not going to tell them you copy that person |
| 750 | 02:07:46 --> 02:07:58 | down to the letter of what they did. And that's shameful. Because what you're doing is the same thing that everybody does. When a cow tail, any follow leader. |
| 751 | 02:07:59 --> 02:08:08 | I don't want follow the leader. I want leaders. I want people that go out there and say, I'm doing this on my own. I don't care too, if you think that making |
| 752 | 02:08:08 --> 02:08:15 | any videos anymore. I'm cured ICT isn't doing mentorships anymore. I don't care if he ever puts his books out. I don't care if he ever does anything. Because I |
| 753 | 02:08:15 --> 02:08:24 | know exactly what I'm doing right now. I put the work in my results, I earned these results. So it is what it is. I don't need anybody else's outside |
| 754 | 02:08:24 --> 02:08:33 | influence. And guess what, that's exactly what we're all of you to have that. It's not arrogance. It's not conceited, pompous perspective, that's |
| 755 | 02:08:34 --> 02:08:47 | independence. That's confidence. That something that you can't purchase, and nobody can take it from you. Nobody can take it from you, who's going to who's |
| 756 | 02:08:47 --> 02:08:58 | going to take the ability for you to make money using a model that you have employed for months and years, and you stop working. And you're consistently |
| 757 | 02:08:58 --> 02:09:08 | able to weather the storm of losing periodically, drawn down and then coming back out of that drawdown. And then coming to the point of net positive for the |
| 758 | 02:09:08 --> 02:09:18 | end of the year, you pay your taxes on that money, you start a new year and you do it all over again. Is someone going to be able to tell you anything? When |
| 759 | 02:09:18 --> 02:09:27 | you're at that, at that position? Who's going to tell you you did that wrong? Who's going to tell you what you're doing is wrong? Or it's not good enough? No |
| 760 | 02:09:27 --> 02:09:33 | one you're not even given a time of the day. You're not You're not gonna worry about you're gonna close these people and shut them down and me like do go |
| 761 | 02:09:33 --> 02:09:44 | somewhere else. Ma'am, take it somewhere else. I ain't got time for that. My profit students don't entertain the thoughts and opinions of other people. They |
| 762 | 02:09:44 --> 02:09:50 | don't even worry about it. But you're doing that in the beginning stages, whether you're learning from me or looking for someone else. You're you're |
| 763 | 02:09:50 --> 02:10:07 | you're like a sponge in the worst way. Any any opportunity to have outward criticisms, you're you're thinking, I know I'm gonna get some bad criticisms. |
| 764 | 02:10:07 --> 02:10:15 | But I might get somebody to say what I'm doing is good. And what does that mean, you're looking for a cheerleader. And in trading, you don't want a cheerleader. |
| 765 | 02:10:17 --> 02:10:24 | You want everybody to stay out of your damn business, your business is your business. As soon as you allow an invite the opportunity for someone else to |
| 766 | 02:10:24 --> 02:10:34 | critique you. You must well listen to everything they say, Don't be selective, don't be selective and say, Well, you know, I like to see what they say about me |
| 767 | 02:10:34 --> 02:10:42 | once in a while, no, you must submit to everything they say. Because if you've let your guard down, and you take any influence from anyone else's expectations |
| 768 | 02:10:42 --> 02:10:55 | or opinion of you, you step out of the driver's seat and let them drive your ship, your car, your cruise ship. And believe me, they're looking for the storms |
| 769 | 02:10:55 --> 02:11:04 | that drive you right in the middle of it. And laugh because you're gonna have hardships, because they are living in a storm constantly. That's where they |
| 770 | 02:11:04 --> 02:11:13 | live, they live like that. And if they can ruffle the feathers, or take you out of your comfort zone of consistently profitable doing what you're doing, even |
| 771 | 02:11:13 --> 02:11:22 | though you're not 100% Strike, right, your strike rate isn't 100%, your profitable, profitable, students are not worried about other people's opinions. |
| 772 | 02:11:22 --> 02:11:31 | They're not asking their opinion about the market, they don't care. But in the beginning, it feels counterintuitive to not feel like let me ask these other |
| 773 | 02:11:31 --> 02:11:37 | people that have more information about what they're doing and how they trade. Because you think that that's a shortcut. And what you're doing is, is you're |
| 774 | 02:11:37 --> 02:11:48 | feeding all of this, it's applying more sediment. Okay, and your tears of frustration mixed with that semen and you build walls that you're gonna have to |
| 775 | 02:11:48 --> 02:11:55 | break down, or they're going to be strong enough and formidable enough that you can't pass through. And you never arrive at the destination you have in front of |
| 776 | 02:11:55 --> 02:12:05 | you. When you first sat down and want to learn how to trade, you had a goal in mind, I want to quit my job. Wonderful, wonderful objective. Is it going to |
| 777 | 02:12:05 --> 02:12:19 | happen right away? Nope. Nope, it ain't gonna happen. Eventually done the right way over a period of time, you could get to that point. What's the |
| 778 | 02:12:19 --> 02:12:33 | differentiation between you getting there and not getting there? Bringing your circle of influence down to just you. It anybody outside yet means your spouse, |
| 779 | 02:12:34 --> 02:12:47 | boyfriend, girlfriend, your present job. Your friends and your family? People you know on the internet, or maybe the other people that you don't even know |
| 780 | 02:12:47 --> 02:12:58 | that this have the ability to leave comments in your timeline. If any one of those individuals or collective groups of people had any influence over you, and |
| 781 | 02:12:58 --> 02:13:08 | how you think and how you feel, if you feel an emotional response to them, whether it's they give you a compliment, like Yeah, yeah, bullshit, get rid of |
| 782 | 02:13:08 --> 02:13:22 | it. If they allow, or if you allow, rather than to give you criticism that they may say this is constructive criticism, okay? Are you self employed? Are you |
| 783 | 02:13:22 --> 02:13:29 | making the money outside of a nine to five job where you are in a position where you can tell me your constructive criticism, because you're not in a position to |
| 784 | 02:13:29 --> 02:13:42 | give me any criticism at all, because you're not even doing what I'm doing. If you allow for that, you are inviting laying the red carpet out for people to |
| 785 | 02:13:42 --> 02:13:51 | deter you from your objective. But it doesn't feel like that when it's happening. Because what you're looking for, just like when you tell your |
| 786 | 02:13:51 --> 02:14:00 | friends, just like when you tell your family members and your spouse. Hey, bro, we've been going to school since so and so we're friends, right? You know, we're |
| 787 | 02:14:00 --> 02:14:09 | tight. I just wanna let you know what I'm doing. I'm gonna be doing this trade, and I'm gonna do this. I'm gonna do that. Okay, what's he gonna tell you? Do not |
| 788 | 02:14:09 --> 02:14:17 | I mean, it sounds crazy. It's too much risk. I wouldn't do that. You said you weren't going to do that. And let's leave it at that. But what's going to happen |
| 789 | 02:14:17 --> 02:14:28 | is, they're going to tell you every reason why you shouldn't do it. Because what they're feeling is oh, crap. They got they got a sense of desire to come out of |
| 790 | 02:14:28 --> 02:14:36 | where we're at right now. They don't have it. They don't have an avenue to get out of where they're at their content. They're complacent right now. Right where |
| 791 | 02:14:36 --> 02:14:44 | they're at. They're comfortable. And you made a decision that you're not comfortable where you're at, you need to elevate and that that, that decision to |
| 792 | 02:14:44 --> 02:14:54 | finally make a move to change. Where you are in life, and you want to go higher, you want more and there's nothing wrong with that. It's not simple to want more. |
| 793 | 02:14:55 --> 02:15:03 | That's not That's not sinful. We're not supposed to live in lack. We're not supposed to have contention with ourselves and wrestle with, you know, we don't, |
| 794 | 02:15:03 --> 02:15:17 | we don't have enough. Because if you don't have what it takes to take care of your family, that's horrible. And a person lives by their work, they eat. If a |
| 795 | 02:15:17 --> 02:15:28 | person doesn't work they don't eat. Let me tell you something by tells you that trade network never traded before. This takes more work. I have surgeons as |
| 796 | 02:15:28 --> 02:15:43 | students, okay, brain surgeons, as students, and from their own lips, said, this is the most difficult thing I've ever had to learn how to do. These people cut |
| 797 | 02:15:43 --> 02:15:58 | on human beings brains and keep them alive. To me, I think that what they're doing is harder, but from their lips. But you, you listen to some jackleg s on |
| 798 | 02:15:58 --> 02:16:05 | social media say, Oh, you'll never gonna learn how to do this, or you'll never survive at this or you're never this doesn't work. That doesn't work. And these |
| 799 | 02:16:05 --> 02:16:18 | people don't do anything. They're working at Jiffy Lube. The guy listening knows who exactly I'm talking to. But the bottom line is this, you are allowing these |
| 800 | 02:16:18 --> 02:16:29 | nobodies to give you input, that you're going to elevate to a level of importance when it's not important at all. Because you're trying to look for |
| 801 | 02:16:29 --> 02:16:40 | someone to cheerlead, because you you're thinking, I'm going to filter out all of the adverse criticism. If I get 50 comments, that are highly critical that |
| 802 | 02:16:40 --> 02:16:50 | it's going to be impossible for you to find success in any of this. If you just listen to find one that says, I believe you're going to do it, that's what |
| 803 | 02:16:50 --> 02:16:59 | you're looking for. And that's wasted effort and time. When you if you do that for yourself, in your own journaling, you cut out all the bullshit. |
| 804 | 02:17:01 --> 02:17:10 | Think about how much time you listen to people that don't have your best interest in mind. These people on social media, they live for it, they're like |
| 805 | 02:17:10 --> 02:17:20 | vampires. And if you respond to them, and you give them any energy back, you just elevated them up out of the mire of Jiffy Lube. They can't even get an |
| 806 | 02:17:20 --> 02:17:27 | overtime hour to pay for Netflix this week. But they're going to be on the internet hounding in counseling telling you you can't do this, or you won't do |
| 807 | 02:17:27 --> 02:17:36 | that. I've had lots of students that were influenced by other people negatively taking them down. And I've had students that had that initially. And I told them |
| 808 | 02:17:36 --> 02:17:50 | what I'm telling you here. Now they're now they're profitable, what changed, the concepts didn't change. The markets didn't change. They didn't trade new models. |
| 809 | 02:17:50 --> 02:18:02 | They didn't go into a different market, they didn't start trading one asset class into another. They let no outside influence in. Because your spouse isn't |
| 810 | 02:18:02 --> 02:18:10 | going to believe you. Your friends aren't going to believe you. And your family doesn't want to see you do better than them because they are going through life |
| 811 | 02:18:10 --> 02:18:18 | just like you are. And they would like to win the lottery, they would like to have something better fall in their lap, but they don't want to put the work and |
| 812 | 02:18:18 --> 02:18:26 | effort into it because they don't want to fail and feel like they wasted time, money and energy. Whereas you if you're still listening to this, you have the |
| 813 | 02:18:26 --> 02:18:43 | right mindset. Because it's feeding you. It's aligning your perception with reality that yeah, this is hard. This all this stuff is hard. But for the few |
| 814 | 02:18:43 --> 02:18:53 | that had the mentality to stick through it and work it out in their own way their model is unique to themselves. They know when it should be used and |
| 815 | 02:18:53 --> 02:18:59 | employed versus when it shouldn't be and their contentment that they're not trying to trade everyday because there's a market open. They don't they don't |
| 816 | 02:18:59 --> 02:19:06 | care about that. And they don't care that they don't have a result, the show with everybody every single day, every single session, every single market. Why |
| 817 | 02:19:06 --> 02:19:14 | don't you take that trade? Hey, Brian, why don't you take this trade over here? Why don't you do that? Hey, did you trade that when you showed get you traded |
| 818 | 02:19:14 --> 02:19:22 | this and you got a broker statement? You did that? But why did you take this trade over here? Why didn't you take this many contracts? Why are you still |
| 819 | 02:19:22 --> 02:19:31 | fucking working? And you're asking me questions. That's your mindset. Maybe you use the superlatives, and in a sense enhancers like that. But you need to cut |
| 820 | 02:19:31 --> 02:19:41 | these people out their cancer. If their family members love them from a distance, when you arrive at where you're at, then you can talk to them about it |
| 821 | 02:19:41 --> 02:19:47 | because the nothing they're going to say to you at that point is going to have any influence over you. You're not going to say, Oh, I better stop making money |
| 822 | 02:19:47 --> 02:19:58 | now because they didn't like how I did it. No one ever thought that ever when he talked to other family members, no one ever says we have regret. I regret having |
| 823 | 02:19:58 --> 02:20:06 | done all the things I've done to arrive I'm at where I'm at, because my family said, they would have never expected me to do that, they never would have |
| 824 | 02:20:06 --> 02:20:13 | expected me to arrive at where I'm at, would have been possible. If you would have told me, then you were going to do this, I would have said, you never would |
| 825 | 02:20:13 --> 02:20:19 | have done it. But they're going to lie to you and say, you know, if you would have told me that, I would have told you get up, if anybody in our family is |
| 826 | 02:20:19 --> 02:20:35 | going to do it, you would. Not one of my family members did that. Not one of my friends did that. Not one of them. And I gave them ample opportunity. Because I |
| 827 | 02:20:35 --> 02:20:51 | needed it. I needed that. Because no one was coaching me, no one was encouraging me. And I wanted to quit all the time, all the time. And if I would have had the |
| 828 | 02:20:51 --> 02:21:01 | ability to know in advance how to manage myself, and how to filter out all the things like I will use in America Online back then, as a sounding board, to |
| 829 | 02:21:02 --> 02:21:13 | receive the encouragement from outside sources, because I had hit the bottom of the tank with myself. Like I needed someone else to say, You know what, this is |
| 830 | 02:21:13 --> 02:21:24 | cool, this is worthwhile, I'm gonna start doing what you're doing. And I was like, You know what, I'm gonna borrow that spark of hope that they just seen in |
| 831 | 02:21:24 --> 02:21:38 | this because I can't see it right now. I keep messing it up. I keep messing it up. And by borrowing the enthusiasm of others on the internet, in the late 90s, |
| 832 | 02:21:39 --> 02:21:49 | AOL was, that was the thing, right? Like, that was the internet, my, my younger self, we watched the internet come up, you know, all of you probably listening. |
| 833 | 02:21:49 --> 02:22:00 | You're young, you've always had the internet, you have a plethora of mediums and avenues to communicate and converse with other people. Back then we really had |
| 834 | 02:22:00 --> 02:22:10 | just one medium. And then he had billboards, and small little Internet Relay Chat apps and things like that. And you had very like, before cable TV, you had |
| 835 | 02:22:10 --> 02:22:23 | a television, to head channel 1113, two, and you had a UHF forgetting what they're calling me. But 54 and 45. And he had public channels, 22 and 26. What's |
| 836 | 02:22:23 --> 02:22:29 | even with a really good antenna, you still didn't get them coming clear. That was the that was the equivalent to what it was like when the internet started, |
| 837 | 02:22:29 --> 02:22:42 | you had very few choices. And then you had all these different browsers was starting to come out, use Firefox and a couple other somethings scape or |
| 838 | 02:22:42 --> 02:22:51 | something, I can't remember what it was. But it was neat to see all these things coming up. And it was a wild approach to be able to talk to someone on the other |
| 839 | 02:22:51 --> 02:23:02 | side of the planet, real time. And it was neat. And you want to hear other people encourage you, and you want to encourage other people if it's in you to |
| 840 | 02:23:02 --> 02:23:10 | do that. And I'm an encourager, I'm I went through adversity, I went through a lot of things, not just in trading, but a lot of other stuff. And I know it's |
| 841 | 02:23:10 --> 02:23:21 | like to be down and out and homeless, and have any money and no one willing to help you and have no positive expectation you're at, you're at the lowest of the |
| 842 | 02:23:21 --> 02:23:32 | low. You can't go any lower unless you're in the ground. So I know what it feels like to not have any sense of encouragement, or any reason to feel like it's |
| 843 | 02:23:32 --> 02:23:42 | worth keep trying to do it. He tried to do it, he tried to do it. And Mike coping mechanism when I was 20 years old was to go on the internet. That was it. |
| 844 | 02:23:42 --> 02:23:53 | That's how I did it. And until I changed my perspective on why I was trying to do it, you know, understanding how to do it. And I asked the Lord, I said, Look, |
| 845 | 02:23:53 --> 02:24:03 | I believe if if you let me understand this, I'll spend my life helping other people do it. And not only teach them how to do it, but I'll encourage them |
| 846 | 02:24:03 --> 02:24:15 | along the way. Because that's the that's the missing ingredient. That point of sticking with it long enough. You know, it's like exercise and weight loss and a |
| 847 | 02:24:15 --> 02:24:23 | sport, you know, you have to work at it. It doesn't. It doesn't just because you like it doesn't just fall on your lap and you're good at it. It takes effort. It |
| 848 | 02:24:23 --> 02:24:36 | takes discipline to continuously work towards it in this. This is really hard. But this is really, really difficult because you are the factor that makes it |
| 849 | 02:24:36 --> 02:24:44 | difficult. I have lots of students all around the world, and so many different walks of life. They've had success in other things and they thought it was gonna |
| 850 | 02:24:44 --> 02:24:53 | be easy for them to have success in this and they found out it's hard. They had no success in anything and then they come into this with low expectations but |
| 851 | 02:24:53 --> 02:25:02 | high expectations in terms of immediate gratification but low expectations in themselves. So they expected the concepts and myself my ability as a mentor to |
| 852 | 02:25:02 --> 02:25:11 | transform them immediately, which is not practical in any sense by any measure of any field of study or mentor. There's nobody out Christ can do it, obviously. |
| 853 | 02:25:11 --> 02:25:22 | But even he had people that didn't want to listen to him. And I'm not trying to equate myself to that. But it is it. As a mentor, as a teacher, I wear my heart |
| 854 | 02:25:22 --> 02:25:33 | on my sleeve. Like I want all of you to succeed, even if it's outside of what I teach. I love hearing about people succeeding, I love it. Because I know what it |
| 855 | 02:25:33 --> 02:25:44 | was like before I found success, how I looked for that. And there was very few online that were showing anything that resembled success. And that's what I |
| 856 | 02:25:44 --> 02:25:52 | latched on to Larry Williams, because he had something that was, it was proven, he went out there and did 10,000 hours, and we added over $2 million dollars at |
| 857 | 02:25:52 --> 02:26:04 | one point. And I held a great deal of respect for that. And I motivated myself by watching the same tire last videos. And I can I can repeat them verbatim |
| 858 | 02:26:04 --> 02:26:14 | still today. And they were made in 1994, released for publication in 1995. That's a long time and I can still, I can still say that stuff very before he |
| 859 | 02:26:14 --> 02:26:22 | says it. If you watched it, I can tell you he's gonna say before he said it verbatim, because I had to listen to that. That was that was my coach. That was |
| 860 | 02:26:22 --> 02:26:35 | my that my encouragement. And today, we have a lot of nonsense out there. A lot of self worship, a lot of people that want to be worshipped and looked up to for |
| 861 | 02:26:35 --> 02:26:44 | no real good reason. And I'm watching this price action. Don't Don't get me wrong, I've been looking at Christ the entire time. But we're at the low end of |
| 862 | 02:26:44 --> 02:26:47 | the opening range. That's that shaded area here. Let me go back to the |
| 863 | 02:26:49 --> 02:26:58 | word here, that that closing price to the opening price. That's what was shaded here. So we went above we created relatively equal highs, we did trade up to |
| 864 | 02:26:58 --> 02:27:11 | that low here. Okay, so maybe Steve would have taken another trade to get in there. And trade up to that point. Now. There you go. Jane, the trader that |
| 865 | 02:27:11 --> 02:27:20 | looks for turtle soup type things, she might have seen these as relative equal highs failed to get to the midpoint, we broke down. And now we're below here. So |
| 866 | 02:27:20 --> 02:27:30 | we're at a really critical point, where now the opening range itself can act as a premium array. Meaning if we trade below it and come back up into a fair |
| 867 | 02:27:30 --> 02:27:39 | array, get that works in concert with the low of that shaded area here. That could be the catalyst to send price below that low accelerate down to that low, |
| 868 | 02:27:39 --> 02:27:46 | which was those relative equal lows, I told you, at the beginning the video, let me show you again, I'll pull on a five minute chart |
| 869 | 02:27:51 --> 02:27:53 | with the electronic trading hours. |
| 870 | 02:28:00 --> 02:28:09 | That's these lows right here. Okay, so we want to see a trade down, create a fair value gap, and then go into that and then accelerate down, it's done enough |
| 871 | 02:28:09 --> 02:28:18 | for my liking. Post opening range, we made an attempt to get the midpoint, we created a relative equal highs went there failed. And now we're focusing on the |
| 872 | 02:28:18 --> 02:28:32 | low end of that shaded area. Because like a, like a fairway got where it can trade just below end of it and and go lower. We're retreating in the same way. |
| 873 | 02:28:33 --> 02:28:43 | Let me zoom in here because it doesn't get like doing it. Now. If this candle right now, doesn't come back up in touch that candles low, that would be enough |
| 874 | 02:28:43 --> 02:28:51 | to create the fair value gap I'm referring to. It comes back and trades to it right away. That's immediate rebounds. And then it could just take off and not |
| 875 | 02:28:51 --> 02:29:01 | create the the fair value gap in this area like it just did here, we'd have to wait for something below this. So that's it, you're constantly weighing out what |
| 876 | 02:29:01 --> 02:29:09 | it can do and what it will do. It could do this, but you got to wait for these candles to close. There's no inefficiency here. Now it's already came back into |
| 877 | 02:29:09 --> 02:29:24 | that candle. So said plainly and simply is as long as we don't take out this candle time. Any fair value gap below this opening range, I would like to see |
| 878 | 02:29:24 --> 02:29:34 | that be treated as a premium array, and then send price lower. And how we trade at this area here would be indicative of how we trade down here. But once we get |
| 879 | 02:29:34 --> 02:29:45 | to this level here, I would be done with the expectation on the day. And I wouldn't I wouldn't care for what it did beyond that. So it builds up a limit of |
| 880 | 02:29:45 --> 02:29:56 | my interest. My interest in this day is until we get down here. So how could I use that information? It could treat they could trade down here and opportunity |
| 881 | 02:29:56 --> 02:30:04 | where it trades down to this level here and just pokes below these lows and doesn't get down to that blue level here. Okay. And then as long as we don't |
| 882 | 02:30:04 --> 02:30:16 | take out, it's not in price action right now. But whatever high that would be formed, after it takes out these lows, I would look for that as the boundary in |
| 883 | 02:30:16 --> 02:30:27 | the afternoon where it shouldn't trade beyond that, once it creates the new setup at 130 to two o'clock, that would eventually trade down to here. So it's |
| 884 | 02:30:27 --> 02:30:39 | kind of like how I'm building an expectation. It doesn't mean that I'm saying it has to do that. That's what I would like. And I lay the invitation for that type |
| 885 | 02:30:39 --> 02:30:48 | of setup. And if it was the present itself, I could take that type of trade, because of all the things I just said here, okay, but this is pretty much this |
| 886 | 02:30:48 --> 02:30:59 | is messy. And here, we've done nothing with it this, but I lost my train of thought about what I was saying earlier, but along the lines of allowing outside |
| 887 | 02:30:59 --> 02:31:07 | influences, you have to be very careful with it. And in your journal, you certainly don't want to let other people's opinions, even good ones. Because |
| 888 | 02:31:07 --> 02:31:16 | flattering lips, you know, they're they're distraction, they'll tell you, when you when you want to be told you're doing good, when in reality, you know what |
| 889 | 02:31:16 --> 02:31:29 | you did to get the result wasn't probably in your model. It wasn't in a in a manner in which you should be proud of, for the sake of trading the model, |
| 890 | 02:31:29 --> 02:31:37 | because it's outside the scope of the model. So you have to be very guarded in that regard. Because it's very easy to talk yourself into being smarter |
| 891 | 02:31:37 --> 02:31:46 | outwardly than you really are internal. And I was looking for those types of things as a 20 year old. And in today's society with social media the way it is |
| 892 | 02:31:46 --> 02:31:56 | today. I would have self destructed if I was starting in this environment, because I would have been looking for outward. You know, Pat's on the back, I |
| 893 | 02:31:56 --> 02:32:04 | would have been looking for an attaboy you doing amazing work? I don't like those types of things. Still, to this day. I don't know. I don't ever like that |
| 894 | 02:32:04 --> 02:32:12 | kind of stuff. Because I know what it would have done to me as a younger man. And I know what it does the younger folks today, they want to be worshipped. And |
| 895 | 02:32:13 --> 02:32:23 | no, I'm not God, I don't need to be worshipped. But I'd like to see appreciation, you know, when when I make an effort to try to spend my time which |
| 896 | 02:32:23 --> 02:32:34 | I can be doing other things. And they get something from it. I like seeing that. Like I like seeing that they got something very specific, out of the time they |
| 897 | 02:32:34 --> 02:32:40 | spend with me, versus you know, you're the best. You're the I'm not the goat, I'm not the greatest, I hate those types of things. But when someone's very |
| 898 | 02:32:40 --> 02:32:50 | specific, and they say, You know what, this, this addressed an issue I had been wrestling with. And I feel like I've got an approach now I can apply to try to |
| 899 | 02:32:50 --> 02:32:58 | combat that, that I like, I like those comments. I like that type of feedback. Because it's very specific, instead of just giving me a blanket loving response, |
| 900 | 02:32:58 --> 02:33:11 | which is what 99% of my comments are. Occasionally I'll get to fraud, you scammer saying guy 15 Different Sockpuppet accounts. But that type of feedback, |
| 901 | 02:33:11 --> 02:33:20 | you know, when when you're very specific about it, I might not like it physically, you know, with a little love you hard thing on YouTube, but I read |
| 902 | 02:33:20 --> 02:33:28 | all of them, like I read every single comment. And once a day I scroll through because they're like little text messages. Well, not all of them. Some of them |
| 903 | 02:33:28 --> 02:33:36 | are like books, they I've done this, and then this, this, this and I would like to share what I discovered. Make a YouTube channel, you know, make a YouTube |
| 904 | 02:33:36 --> 02:33:45 | channel, if you discover something new, and you want to share it, if you're willing to share it, let everybody see it. Because there there's no limit to |
| 905 | 02:33:45 --> 02:33:53 | what you're going to be able to do with what I've taught you. Like I'm not at the end of it. You know, if I had more life, you know, I probably could do a |
| 906 | 02:33:53 --> 02:34:00 | whole lot more with what I got. But I'm content with what I have. I'm content with what I've shared, and you don't need everything that I've shared. You only |
| 907 | 02:34:00 --> 02:34:09 | need like a small piece of it. And the rest is all you and that's why I tell you when you get your results, you need to take credit for that, whether that's good |
| 908 | 02:34:09 --> 02:34:19 | or bad. You can't take credit and say I'm Team ICT because it worked. And then when it loses, you know, ICT is a fraud or ICT stuff doesn't work or ICT has |
| 909 | 02:34:19 --> 02:34:26 | rebranded this, they got an excuse for everything that justifies their shortcomings. So it's important that you own it, whatever your results are, |
| 910 | 02:34:26 --> 02:34:33 | they're yours and you should be proud of them. Even if they're not what you want them to be right now you're making an effort to do it. That's more than 90% of |
| 911 | 02:34:33 --> 02:34:44 | people out there to one year after you start trading. If you if you took an inventory of everybody that started a year ago in trading, about 75% of them |
| 912 | 02:34:44 --> 02:35:00 | aren't trading today. They're not trading and that's always been like that. And that same 25% you maybe 2% or less or even marginally profitable in law Less |
| 913 | 02:35:00 --> 02:35:16 | than 1% are consistently profitable. So the dynamics of this is that it's so against you in terms of potentially profitable it's easy to talk yourself out of |
| 914 | 02:35:16 --> 02:35:25 | it. So if you, you start with managing yourself, and how you manage yourself emotionally, psychologically, through the use and employment of a journal, |
| 915 | 02:35:26 --> 02:35:37 | that's the benefit of using it. It's your shield. And it's your record of how you dealt with previous experiences. And when you journal at the top of your |
| 916 | 02:35:37 --> 02:35:45 | journal, or at the bottom of your journal, some way that you want to track all your stuff, you want to, if you have a really good day where you encountered |
| 917 | 02:35:45 --> 02:35:52 | something, and you learned how to, you know, work through something that was adversarial, in your development, where you feel like you've really wrestled |
| 918 | 02:35:52 --> 02:36:03 | something, and you did something right, or you suffered something, and you didn't get the expectation, or results that you were looking for. And you sweet |
| 919 | 02:36:03 --> 02:36:13 | talk yourself in a way where it was very therapeutic for you. At the top of your journal, or at the bottom of your journal page entry or log entry, you want to |
| 920 | 02:36:13 --> 02:36:22 | label this encouragement. Okay, and, and another part of your journal like the far back, or maybe it's better to have it in the beginning, if you're using a |
| 921 | 02:36:22 --> 02:36:35 | physical journal, where one section is you love key dates, where you overcome it, you overcame a, an adversary, or a dragon, you slayed a dragon that was |
| 922 | 02:36:35 --> 02:36:45 | plaguing you as a, as a developing student or trader, where you've really made progress with something or you overcome something, or you felt something that |
| 923 | 02:36:45 --> 02:36:53 | was a barrier, then you applied something that you learn from me or maybe someone else, and you now feel like you're victorious over it, it doesn't mean |
| 924 | 02:36:53 --> 02:37:02 | that that dragon won't show itself again, that that adversary won't show itself again, in trading. It won't play you again, it will. But when you encounter it |
| 925 | 02:37:02 --> 02:37:11 | again, you want to go back to those things, same dates, okay. And you remind yourself what you did to get through it. Because when you're going through it, |
| 926 | 02:37:11 --> 02:37:22 | you forget everything. And you react impulsively, and what is that going to usually tend to be in trading, trade recklessly, or over trade, trade outside |
| 927 | 02:37:22 --> 02:37:27 | your model. And that's not what you should be doing. When you have a period of drawdown. |
| 928 | 02:37:28 --> 02:37:37 | And you go through a period of cancelling out that drawdown, you want to have a period of time where you cancel that drawdown out in the dates when they happen. |
| 929 | 02:37:37 --> 02:37:43 | So that way, when you go into drawdown against I hate you, I've been here before, and this is what happened last time, and each day wasn't always |
| 930 | 02:37:43 --> 02:37:51 | profitable. But I slowly grew out of that drawdown. You lived it. It's not like reading the Bible. And these other people had those experiences. And we're |
| 931 | 02:37:51 --> 02:38:04 | supposed to find faith and encouragement from you are recording these events in your life. And your your children are your the people that you have a circle of |
| 932 | 02:38:04 --> 02:38:15 | influence. And they have a record of what you did to get through that at the time. And but when it's your experiences that you go through, and you wrestle |
| 933 | 02:38:15 --> 02:38:23 | through it, and you read it again, it's amazing how you can be right back in that moment again, and feel like I remember being really uncertain about that |
| 934 | 02:38:23 --> 02:38:31 | time. And I didn't trust, but I stuck with it. And I did. So now I did that I went through the process of following the rules and what I was supposed to do |
| 935 | 02:38:31 --> 02:38:42 | and limiting the exposure outside of me keeping all that stuff at bay. And I know I'll be able to get through this again, it may not be as short as a span of |
| 936 | 02:38:42 --> 02:38:50 | time that it took for me to get through, then it may take longer, or you'll be pleasantly surprised that it gets faster that you go through it. But you |
| 937 | 02:38:50 --> 02:39:02 | shouldn't have the expectation like that. Speed is only welcome when you're trying to protect your money. Only fast movement or fast reaction when you're |
| 938 | 02:39:02 --> 02:39:12 | trying to protect your money. Everything else you need to be moving in slow motion. And I didn't understand that when Larry Williams first mentioned that. |
| 939 | 02:39:12 --> 02:39:24 | But when you lose money, you blow accounts. That stuff means a whole lot different perspective of managing yourself. Because you think that when you |
| 940 | 02:39:24 --> 02:39:33 | lose, I want to hurry up and make it back. And the worst thing can happen is that you do and what did that do every morning you doing something impulsively. |
| 941 | 02:39:33 --> 02:39:41 | That's not how you rewarded with me, as a mentor. I'm gonna tell you did that shit wrong? You did it wrong, and you don't deserve any accolades for that. I |
| 942 | 02:39:41 --> 02:39:50 | don't care that you made the money back. You don't deserve the accolades for that. Because you have been rewarded monetarily on impulsive reactions to |
| 943 | 02:39:50 --> 02:39:59 | something that you should have stopped. You certainly shouldn't use more risk, because that's usually what you're going to do. Well, I only lost 15 handles on |
| 944 | 02:39:59 --> 02:40:07 | that list. on this, but I'm going to double what I traded this time, because all I got to do is get half of that move. And I think that's, that's backwards |
| 945 | 02:40:07 --> 02:40:19 | thinking. And when you're rewarded with that type of stuff, it solidifies it in a manner where you never think correctly about the market and your actions and |
| 946 | 02:40:19 --> 02:40:29 | reactions to what the markets gonna present to you after that losing trade, you're just going to plow ahead. And every single person that blows an account |
| 947 | 02:40:29 --> 02:40:38 | has that moment, right, when they could have said, I'm not going to do that, but they choose to do it. And then then you don't have an account at the end of that |
| 948 | 02:40:38 --> 02:40:51 | trading day, or even that trading session. It's demoralizing, you know, and it's avoidable. But you won't recognize how to avoid it, unless you expect it, |
| 949 | 02:40:51 --> 02:40:59 | prepare for it and have a process on how you're going to handle it. And you have control over that. See how we just came back and took this little short term |
| 950 | 02:40:59 --> 02:41:09 | high out after trading back down to the low of the opening range gap, which is shaded here. So I would like to see it move lower. If we can create a run, |
| 951 | 02:41:09 --> 02:41:18 | displacement lower and in a fair value gap in that displacement. That will be enough and then I wouldn't want to see that high taken out until at least this |
| 952 | 02:41:18 --> 02:41:26 | low was traded a lot one on ones this these lows here. So in my mind, I'm we're looking at like this. I'm looking at like this, let's say it that way. |
| 953 | 02:41:37 --> 02:41:44 | I haven't looked at see how many people are here listening, probably not a lot, because I'm going on and on. This guy's not even taking any trades. |
| 954 | 02:41:52 --> 02:42:04 | So that's in my mind, I'm thinking that that pocket rate below these two lows here, it's just too it's too enticing. And look how many times they've taken it |
| 955 | 02:42:04 --> 02:42:18 | up if it took up this high here, here, press through it dug into that nice, big imbalance on the downside here I got single one big news driver candle. We've |
| 956 | 02:42:18 --> 02:42:29 | had a rip higher, digging higher, digging higher, create relative equal highs, dig even higher, but still fail to get to that midpoint. So that's I'm saying if |
| 957 | 02:42:29 --> 02:42:40 | we if we can find a way to trade below with some aggression, I would view that as we tried to get to the midpoint, but now it's proved itself heavy. So then |
| 958 | 02:42:40 --> 02:42:50 | any fair value gap after the imbalance that's created or unbalanced with the impulsive price move is displaces lower, sudden drop, if it creates it, where |
| 959 | 02:42:50 --> 02:43:00 | it's an easily discernible fair value gap. And it trades up in a fair value gap. I would like to see that next fair value gap be treated as a premium array and |
| 960 | 02:43:00 --> 02:43:11 | then trades to it and then aggressively leave it if it does that type of action. These lows here would be easily easily traded to and if and when it does trade |
| 961 | 02:43:11 --> 02:43:20 | to these lows, because I could be wrong. But if it does trade there, I want to see does it show a willingness to expand and dig down below this level here. At |
| 962 | 02:43:20 --> 02:43:29 | that point, I would think it would want to have a sizable retracement back up into the daily range that's created thus far. So that's me building a narrative |
| 963 | 02:43:29 --> 02:43:43 | based on the premise of what we've seen so far. In everything else I've said okay. Extend this over a little bit because I want to see how it reacts is in |
| 964 | 02:43:43 --> 02:43:54 | response to the low of that opening range gap. The opening range gaps high midpoint and low are critical levels of influence algorithmically. But it's not |
| 965 | 02:43:54 --> 02:44:03 | limited to that. There's the lower 25% and the upper 75%. Okay, so the way you can do that is this |
| 966 | 02:44:09 --> 02:44:12 | it's actually easier if I do it on the regular trading hours |
| 967 | 02:44:17 --> 02:44:26 | I have been wanting to spend time with you all and talk and go over stuff and whatnot. But you know, when you're married and your wife's close to her mother, |
| 968 | 02:44:26 --> 02:44:38 | she was very close to her mom. She's taken it very hard. I just I wasn't able to do anything but just be read at her beck and call and because she's not here |
| 969 | 02:44:38 --> 02:44:47 | today I'm able to do this but that expected her to leave yesterday and she stayed home because of her father not needing to do what he needs to do today. |
| 970 | 02:44:49 --> 02:44:57 | It afforded me the opportunity so so it wasn't like I was like I'm gonna dangle a carrot say I'm gonna share some time with you and then not do it. I don't have |
| 971 | 02:44:58 --> 02:45:06 | the care of European Enough me above what my wife is expecting of me because she's going through something. So hopefully the adults in the conversation here |
| 972 | 02:45:06 --> 02:45:17 | can can get what I'm saying family first. So here's the, here's the key levels, whenever we have an opening range gap, the high, obviously, you can always come |
| 973 | 02:45:17 --> 02:45:26 | back to that. And on a day that's bullish, we would expect it to trade there, fail to go through it and then run through it, then the rest of the day you're |
| 974 | 02:45:26 --> 02:45:35 | bullish. Okay. So that's a real simple way of approaching that. A really nice retracement, but leaving the gap open would be trading back to the three |
| 975 | 02:45:35 --> 02:45:43 | quarters of that range being the highest point and the lowest point and lowest point is where we open at 930 on the new day. Okay, so where we stopped trading |
| 976 | 02:45:43 --> 02:45:54 | yesterday at settlement to the opening price at 930. That's your opening range, I'm watching price for the first 30 minutes. Unless I see something extremely |
| 977 | 02:45:54 --> 02:46:02 | convincing. I'm generally not trying to take a trade in there. But if I'm really sold on the idea what I think it's going to do, many times I'll trade in before |
| 978 | 02:46:02 --> 02:46:10 | the 930 opening, because there are certain instances and it takes a lot of experience. And there has to be like all the planets are aligned. Okay, I'll |
| 979 | 02:46:10 --> 02:46:21 | take a trade, it's ahead of the 930 opening bell. But generally, I'm not. If I see something that I'm expecting to see in terms of directional bias, that the |
| 980 | 02:46:21 --> 02:46:31 | news event delivered, like I thought it was going to run for particular level level liquidity. If it's ran liquidity before the 830 news, but not CPI or PPI |
| 981 | 02:46:31 --> 02:46:42 | or to either one of them, I will use the run on liquidity. And then at 830, I will use whatever it's been doing between 830 and 930. I'll be in sync with that |
| 982 | 02:46:42 --> 02:46:53 | and just expect the opening range to continue what it's done for that last hour. But it's a lot of things that have to be there for that to be true. So some of |
| 983 | 02:46:53 --> 02:47:02 | you probably watched me record my trades or your students, you've watched me do these things, where I'm going in, like literally like two minutes after 930. So |
| 984 | 02:47:02 --> 02:47:12 | 932 or 937. And you see some of these folks on Twitter, they're saying he keeps buying at this certain minute all the time. If folks don't listen to that, okay. |
| 985 | 02:47:13 --> 02:47:21 | If you want to study it, you'll discover what I'm about to say is true. It has nothing to do with what I'm doing. Everybody wants to come up with some kind of |
| 986 | 02:47:21 --> 02:47:28 | way of what I'm hiding from you. I'm not hiding any any particular thing. I'm not always buying a specific Minute, I'm not always selling a specific minute. |
| 987 | 02:47:28 --> 02:47:37 | There are time windows that I'm looking for. Yes, that's true, there are macros. But I'm not always trying to do these very specific minutes. Those there are |
| 988 | 02:47:37 --> 02:47:45 | specific minutes, I'm expecting price to do something. But I'm not always entering at a specific I'm not always entering in a specific minute marker. |
| 989 | 02:47:45 --> 02:47:54 | Okay, so please don't let anybody convince you that that's what's going on, because I'm not doing it. Okay, I am looking at what price should do relative to |
| 990 | 02:47:54 --> 02:48:03 | a specific time. And it may be at a minute, but I'm not entering at that minute. Because of the sake of that minute being what it is. So I'm saying that there |
| 991 | 02:48:03 --> 02:48:14 | are time, windows, some of them are 10 minutes, but most of them are all 20 minute intervals. But I'm not ever entering it one specific minute, that's |
| 992 | 02:48:14 --> 02:48:25 | always repeating always based on something that's not occurring. But there are minutes in a session on a specific day on a specific calendar day or month that |
| 993 | 02:48:25 --> 02:48:36 | it should do specific things. So in that regard, there is some truth to the expectation, but I'm not entering based on a specific minute marker, a specific |
| 994 | 02:48:36 --> 02:48:43 | minute always because of something. If it looks like that, I promise you, it was only coincidence that this hurt occurred. Because if you look at every single |
| 995 | 02:48:43 --> 02:48:55 | one of my examples of entering a trade, that doesn't hold up. Okay, so anyway, then we have the midpoint, which is always an expectation all that should always |
| 996 | 02:48:55 --> 02:49:05 | be shown to be a reasonable return back to that, because it's half of the gap. It's also indicative of telling you whether the markets gonna have a large range |
| 997 | 02:49:05 --> 02:49:14 | day or a trending day, because if it can't get up there, multiple instances are trying to do so then it's heavy, and heavy means is likely to go lower. So if |
| 998 | 02:49:14 --> 02:49:24 | it's going to go lower, where do we, where do I, where do I as a trader, as an educator, as a mentor, where's my focus, I want to see it reach for something |
| 999 | 02:49:24 --> 02:49:33 | efficiency. So if we look to the left of where we are in regards to this, there really isn't any inefficiency. There's I mean, we have this this little thing |
| 1000 | 02:49:33 --> 02:49:45 | here. But apart from that it's this gap and in the lows that formed on the electronic trading hours that we're not seeing here because it's looking we're |
| 1001 | 02:49:45 --> 02:50:03 | looking at the river trading hours. So I would rather side with it once it go below the lows formed on the electronic hours chart here these lows. And then if |
| 1002 | 02:50:03 --> 02:50:10 | it can go below that, what I outlined at the beginning of the, the majority of the beginning of the session we had today, where that trading range we've seen, |
| 1003 | 02:50:10 --> 02:50:30 | so I think there's a larger pool of Sell Stop liquidity resting below there. Okay, back into a moment chart. So all in all, I mean, it's been a rather one |
| 1004 | 02:50:30 --> 02:50:44 | sided move since that news driver came out. But basically, we've been just marking time, but it's respecting, okay, the quadrants of the opening range gap, |
| 1005 | 02:50:44 --> 02:50:53 | this was the higher that the upper quadrant, or the 75 cent level of it, half of it in the lower quadrant, look, what we've done here, look at what's hidden |
| 1006 | 02:50:54 --> 02:51:03 | here. Here, as we can a little bit here, consolidation around, one more spiked is to get all the liquidity out here. And then we drop down where the body's re |
| 1007 | 02:51:03 --> 02:51:16 | at the low of the opening range gap sounds respecting that. So on a day where it's not so heavily manipulated, like we have here, ppi and CPI numbers there, |
| 1008 | 02:51:16 --> 02:51:28 | there's their their train wrecks their convenient excuses why you no longer have your account. Because there's a lot of movement, there's a huge amount of |
| 1009 | 02:51:28 --> 02:51:38 | movement that's available to you. That's why they increase the margins because they know somebody's going to get lucky and overleveraged right before and just |
| 1010 | 02:51:38 --> 02:51:48 | random, this alone would allow for them to have if they're booking the customer, they would have to pay that out. So that's why you see the margins increase. And |
| 1011 | 02:51:50 --> 02:52:02 | the risk of chance, guessing that the over leverage is sizable, that's a huge amount of range here, if someone was able to get in there and go short, this |
| 1012 | 02:52:02 --> 02:52:10 | little run here, if you're trading without stop loss, and it doesn't allow you to get you swiped by margin, and it happened so quick, you probably would have |
| 1013 | 02:52:10 --> 02:52:21 | evaded it. You can ride that out, if you're gambling, and I'm not suggesting or making an invitation to do so I'm actually speaking against it. But in that |
| 1014 | 02:52:21 --> 02:52:30 | short span of time, you know, I'll be booking on the part of a broker that's allowed for over leveraging, not in the sense that you're over leveraging, |
| 1015 | 02:52:30 --> 02:52:39 | because they're giving you three on our margin like an ampersand like that. Even an amp they raised it up. But someone can easily be over leveraged here and get |
| 1016 | 02:52:39 --> 02:52:51 | lucky. And that over lucky gambling, puts them at exposure, if they're be booking a client. And they never want to open that up to the maximum level of |
| 1017 | 02:52:51 --> 02:52:59 | leverage. Whereas in any other given day, if the trader is proven themselves unprofitable, you sure have all kinds of leverage, because the chances of you |
| 1018 | 02:52:59 --> 02:53:06 | not seeing a big run like this, you'll just kill yourself by 1000 cuts, and have to sit back and collect it with commission fees on top of it as it's |
| 1019 | 02:53:06 --> 02:53:21 | sugarcoating. But I'm going to remove this here, the the creation of all these little short term highs, and each one of them being taken out. Like I look at it |
| 1020 | 02:53:21 --> 02:53:30 | this way, between the midpoint of the opening range gap and the low, which is the opening price at 930. That |
| 1021 | 02:53:32 --> 02:53:44 | range, okay, that range at which defines that opening range where we previously settled and where we opened at 930. If I'm bearish, I want to see something in |
| 1022 | 02:53:44 --> 02:53:55 | the lower half. I want to see something form in here that is makes sense to me logically that it's framed the set up, it's taking individuals that want to |
| 1023 | 02:53:55 --> 02:54:04 | chase price lower, which would everybody would have wanted to do. I mean, we've been running lower at 930 Everybody wants to go short, and they give them this |
| 1024 | 02:54:04 --> 02:54:14 | little bit of like that. So what they're gonna do, they're gonna chase it. So they're short, heavy in here, and all through here. And then anyone that short |
| 1025 | 02:54:14 --> 02:54:23 | had a stoploss they took that they drop it down. Okay, that was a real high, then back up but then doesn't pick higher high and they leave this high here. So |
| 1026 | 02:54:23 --> 02:54:33 | what are they doing the engineer what sentiment and saying vein that they think that this is now bearish and we can't go any higher. They run run more time to |
| 1027 | 02:54:33 --> 02:54:43 | do what to take the stocks that are gonna afford them. So if they take in these buy stocks that were right above here, why would this be important or |
| 1028 | 02:54:43 --> 02:54:59 | influential to future price action? Because if they've done what I'm outlining here, which is create liquidity above these highs and they ran that here so then |
| 1029 | 02:54:59 --> 02:55:13 | they have a boy that has no longer short, they knocked them out of their seat and their spot thereby stops some entity out there could be net short inside of |
| 1030 | 02:55:13 --> 02:55:29 | this area here, specifically rate there. So if they're short, they're what would be a reasonable area to anticipate them wanting to get off that short cutting? |
| 1031 | 02:55:29 --> 02:55:38 | Think about why what's the necessity of going up here to knock out anyone that wants to be short. So they paid Nick if they taken them out. And they've assumed |
| 1032 | 02:55:38 --> 02:55:44 | their short position by knocking out their buy, stop. Because it's to protect yourself when you're short, you place a buy Stop, where are you placing a buy? |
| 1033 | 02:55:44 --> 02:55:55 | Stop where the books tell everybody we put it above resistance, because they see this as classic resistance, or above an old high? Well, we have both of those |
| 1034 | 02:55:55 --> 02:56:10 | here. So if someone is short here, where would they want to take their profit? at a discount level? Well, what do we have in availability for that, we have |
| 1035 | 02:56:10 --> 02:56:23 | this low here, which was the first drop lower after 930. So because that's there, we know that great below that low. That's a nice pool of liquidity for |
| 1036 | 02:56:23 --> 02:56:31 | anyone that did get fortunate enough to go long near their stop losses right here. And they're hoping that this is this is going to climb our way back up, it |
| 1037 | 02:56:31 --> 02:56:42 | could you know, broken clock is twice right a day. But here, this is cell side. So this area, will be very careful about putting all these lines on because I |
| 1038 | 02:56:42 --> 02:56:51 | gotta explain to you what I'm doing. The biceps are taken here, their cell side here, and there's a small little gap right there, you see that everything else |
| 1039 | 02:56:51 --> 02:56:59 | here is pretty efficient. It's been back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. And coming back in every little fair pay gap has been overlapped. So the |
| 1040 | 02:56:59 --> 02:57:08 | low this low here, and what's the left of that this low. So there's relatively close here. So there's a pool of liquidity in the form of sell side there. And |
| 1041 | 02:57:08 --> 02:57:15 | then below that we had this inefficiency. Even if they were to take out just these lows, it could spike down into that if they are not taking these lows out |
| 1042 | 02:57:15 --> 02:57:30 | today. Or this session. This would be reasonable to anticipate price reaching to that. So in your charts, you should have that noted in the event if we do take |
| 1043 | 02:57:30 --> 02:57:32 | out that low and this low. |
| 1044 | 02:57:37 --> 02:57:45 | That's where you can identify a level beyond the scope of this taking the sell side, how far can it reach down there, and it doesn't necessarily have to take |
| 1045 | 02:57:45 --> 02:57:55 | that even though I in my opinion, I think this is suspect and and probably want to take that later on. And we might need to go back, take this Hi out once more, |
| 1046 | 02:57:55 --> 02:58:04 | one more pass through. Because lunchtime hour, usually we'll do that. It'll run back, take those stops. Now nobody wants to be short, and they really build |
| 1047 | 02:58:04 --> 02:58:11 | their book heavy. No one's short. So now they'll take it lower when no one's writing it. And then they'll take up the loads there in the afternoon session. |
| 1048 | 02:58:12 --> 02:58:20 | So it's, it's a lot of it's like plate spinning. You know, you were saying plate spinner guy takes a stick, like a dowel rod, a plate that you dinner off of |
| 1049 | 02:58:20 --> 02:58:27 | China. And he spins the plate around, he's got 20 or 30 of them up on the stage. And he's running around constantly keeping all the plates spinning without one |
| 1050 | 02:58:27 --> 02:58:34 | falling and breaking. When you're watching price action, when it's in a consolidation like this, it's it's many times like that. And if you're not very |
| 1051 | 02:58:34 --> 02:58:40 | versed in trading, if you're not knowing exactly what you're looking for, and you don't have the discipline to sit on your hands and wait for something that's |
| 1052 | 02:58:40 --> 02:58:48 | solid, it's better for you to turn the charts off. And don't even look at it. Because these days here will chop you up, they'll grind you down. You think |
| 1053 | 02:58:48 --> 02:58:57 | every little setup is gonna be the thing that pans out. And it's not. It's very frustrating. So if you haven't already noticed, this is my observation so far |
| 1054 | 02:58:57 --> 02:59:10 | for the year. I'm finding that the majority of the move is being completed by 10:15am. And then it usually goes ugly. He does a whole lot of really good clean |
| 1055 | 02:59:10 --> 02:59:18 | price action after that. To me, that's not the algorithm being changed. They're not really looking at it or recoding the algorithm or they change the algorithm. |
| 1056 | 02:59:18 --> 02:59:29 | That's not what that is. What we're seeing is the the effects of what's going on right now. We have all this wartime stuff being clamored about. We have all the |
| 1057 | 02:59:29 --> 02:59:37 | economic problems going on. We have people flooding into our country. They are allowed to carry guns but citizens are not allowed to carry guns. They're |
| 1058 | 02:59:37 --> 02:59:49 | getting away with murder in getting $1 bail. All these things are there. It's heightened risk, huge heightened risk. It's an election year. We have |
| 1059 | 02:59:51 --> 03:00:01 | potentially a powder keg getting ready to go off in the Middle East. And that's going to draw military response and are you All right, theater well, we'll enter |
| 1060 | 03:00:01 --> 03:00:16 | that theater as well. China's about to take Taiwan. All these things, okay, are huge risks. And there's a lot of money building on the sidelines in cash. Yeah, |
| 1061 | 03:00:16 --> 03:00:24 | bitcoins gone up. Yeah, Coco's even gone up better. And I said that before and I'm gonna twist that knife right now. Every single year there's a Megaman okay, |
| 1062 | 03:00:24 --> 03:00:35 | I'm making a trade these these these commodities always will have something that will outpace percentage wise that Bitcoin run, okay, Bitcoin is doing whatever |
| 1063 | 03:00:35 --> 03:00:43 | it wants to do, I would still never trade that thing. I don't care if it goes to a million, I don't care, the outcome is going to be demise. This commodity |
| 1064 | 03:00:43 --> 03:00:53 | market will always exist because the grocery store of the world, okay. And when you see the markets go into a premium, and we watched this in my private |
| 1065 | 03:00:53 --> 03:01:00 | mentorship, we watched it go into a premium market last year. But just because it goes into a premium doesn't mean it's immediately going into a pair about |
| 1066 | 03:01:00 --> 03:01:09 | bull market, it needs to start doing it technically. So fundamentally, when the when the contracts are trading for more money nearby and farther out distance, |
| 1067 | 03:01:09 --> 03:01:18 | you know, it was cheaper. That means there's a huge inversion of supply and demand real supply and demand not not supply demand zones because that's |
| 1068 | 03:01:18 --> 03:01:28 | bullshit. But in deference to real fundamentals of supply and demand factors in the commodity markets, they are trackable, because of the price. The |
| 1069 | 03:01:28 --> 03:01:41 | backwardation that creates, these parabolic price moves up many times is acted upon and instigated by these contracts that are sell by in the nearby conch like |
| 1070 | 03:01:41 --> 03:01:52 | right now, if you're trading Coco Coco's nearby contract is Mei, so the symbol would be k, so you would put in cc k 2024. And then when K expires, you'll be |
| 1071 | 03:01:52 --> 03:02:01 | trading July contract. So if you're looking forward, okay, if you're looking for big type of move, like, like these parabolic runs that you all are expecting to |
| 1072 | 03:02:01 --> 03:02:11 | see, every single day when you're looking at Bitcoin. You get one of them every single year. In the commodity market, at least one could be as many as three. |
| 1073 | 03:02:11 --> 03:02:22 | But usually, there's always one big parabolic run. If it's in association with and I apologize, you guys can hear that, no matter where I go, because there's |
| 1074 | 03:02:22 --> 03:02:31 | four guys around the house right now blowing all this stuff around, they just cut. So you have to deal with it. I'm pologize. But the backwardation of these |
| 1075 | 03:02:31 --> 03:02:41 | contract prices, if you ever see a commodity price, more expensive on a nearby contract. And it gets less expensive going in the future as you further away |
| 1076 | 03:02:41 --> 03:02:52 | from where you are on the calendar. Like for instance, July's contract, normal carrying charge market, it should be higher price at settlement each day, then |
| 1077 | 03:02:52 --> 03:03:04 | the main contract, because it's more money, more more costs associated with producing, storing and maintaining that commodity. And it's really apparent when |
| 1078 | 03:03:04 --> 03:03:13 | you're dealing with an agricultural market like cocoa or the grains or livestock when you're trading those futures markets has a huge influence over what the |
| 1079 | 03:03:13 --> 03:03:21 | market is going to do. But if it ever reverses where it's more expensive in the nearby contracts and gets cheaper in the future, the further in the future, we |
| 1080 | 03:03:21 --> 03:03:31 | go away from the calendar date that you're trading. That's a backwardation and that only happens when there's a fundamental squeeze on the supply that's |
| 1081 | 03:03:31 --> 03:03:42 | available. And what happens is when that becomes in agreement with the technically you have what you see in cocoa let me show you what I mean real |
| 1082 | 03:03:42 --> 03:04:03 | quick okay, that's cocoa on a one minute chart. You want to be trading s&p and NASDAQ moves like that. Okay, and if you're looking at on a daily chart this is |
| 1083 | 03:04:03 --> 03:04:16 | what it's done. And you love Bitcoin. Every year I told you, if you look at listen, I put those core content lessons that I told paid membership students |
| 1084 | 03:04:17 --> 03:04:25 | that were fanboying Oh Bitcoin, Bitcoin, Bitcoin, and then you gotta go through his long periods of drawdown, or not drawdown but periods of consolidation. And |
| 1085 | 03:04:25 --> 03:04:33 | that's, to me, it's very frustrating. I don't like that. But when you look at the fundamentals, and you saw that where they grow cocoa, there was a lot of |
| 1086 | 03:04:33 --> 03:04:45 | influence over the utilization of labor and child labor and they were trying to do a lot of things to stave off that and it caused a lot of problems with it and |
| 1087 | 03:04:45 --> 03:04:55 | he couldn't move cocoa around. And a lot of other things so you can study but we were looking at last year and I said looking at cocoa is in a premium and we can |
| 1088 | 03:04:55 --> 03:05:02 | be watching it and if you're a mentorships you know this, but I did not say buy Coke Though I was saying it wasn't a premium, but you have to wait for things to |
| 1089 | 03:05:02 --> 03:05:11 | get technically in line with it. And when you have that premium, where the contract months and then nearby going into the distance are more expensive in a |
| 1090 | 03:05:11 --> 03:05:20 | nearby, that's the reverse of what normally happens, a carrying charge market is when you always see the prices of the nearby contract be less than further out |
| 1091 | 03:05:20 --> 03:05:31 | distant contracts. So as it relates to cocoa, it would have been may contract is nearby right now, then it goes to July. So, July in normal carrying charge |
| 1092 | 03:05:31 --> 03:05:44 | market should be more money. And it's not, it's less, because of the reverse or backward causation that is created by the it's called a commercial bull market |
| 1093 | 03:05:44 --> 03:05:53 | if you studied Larry Williams stuff. And that's why I talked about even that even that book, it's written in 1973, or whatever. It still holds true today. |
| 1094 | 03:05:54 --> 03:06:04 | And he didn't develop that stuff. He learned it from his mentor. And it still holds true today. But the market still has to be technically in alignment, not |
| 1095 | 03:06:04 --> 03:06:13 | just simply because it can be months, where the front month has a higher premium. Because they're buying it up, they're buying it up. And the people that |
| 1096 | 03:06:13 --> 03:06:20 | use cocoa for like chocolate, what not are you candy bars are gonna start causing a whole lot of money. Or anything that uses cocoa is going to be |
| 1097 | 03:06:20 --> 03:06:40 | expensive. The issue that we had in Baltimore, in my state, you know, we're a huge port for automobiles, coal, and sugar. I'm watching sugar prices, because |
| 1098 | 03:06:41 --> 03:06:50 | this could be a factor months from now, where it causes sugar to do something like this. So I'm just gonna give it to you free of charge. But if you're |
| 1099 | 03:06:50 --> 03:06:50 | looking at |
| 1100 | 03:06:52 --> 03:07:02 | you know, Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies and you think that that that type of parallel move happens, normally there, these types of moves happen every year. |
| 1101 | 03:07:02 --> 03:07:11 | Every single year, there's a big mover if it has a carrying charge market, where it reverses, okay, doesn't mean you can't have a move like this in reverse, but |
| 1102 | 03:07:11 --> 03:07:17 | that's usually what a market it doesn't have a carrying. It has a carrying charge market but not a premium commercial bull market where there's no |
| 1103 | 03:07:17 --> 03:07:26 | backwardation between the front month in the distant month but this type of move here this destroyed Bitcoin, okay, on leverage if you'd had one contract and he |
| 1104 | 03:07:26 --> 03:07:38 | wrote off above 10,000 It destroyed absolutely destroyed Bitcoin and Bitcoin look pretty. It ran off here nicely, but it still pales in comparison, one |
| 1105 | 03:07:38 --> 03:07:55 | percentage basis and what you had to use to trade it back to NASDAQ this one remind y'all June contract and one minute chart Can you tell I'm having fun |
| 1106 | 03:07:55 --> 03:08:04 | today, I'm enjoying this because it's been a pleasant distraction from all the misery it's been with the watching my mother in law passed away. A cancer is |
| 1107 | 03:08:05 --> 03:08:18 | disgusting. It's obvious from hell because no one should suffer like that. But I baptized her in Jesus name for remission of sins. Like nine days before she |
| 1108 | 03:08:18 --> 03:08:29 | passed away, she was aware of everything was going on. She asked Christ for forgiveness. And it wasn't but a couple days after that, she went straight down |
| 1109 | 03:08:29 --> 03:08:44 | and then she was taken from us. So in a lot of ways, I'm at peace about that, but my wife is still she's without her mom. So while I'm trying to find my way |
| 1110 | 03:08:44 --> 03:08:52 | back into the swing of things until the end of this year, that's unfortunately what I'm contending with in my personal life. So if she's around me, I can't do |
| 1111 | 03:08:52 --> 03:09:02 | anything. My personal students don't hear from me. I'm not on the internet making videos. I'm not dealing with anything except for being a husband. But I |
| 1112 | 03:09:02 --> 03:09:12 | needed this break today like I really really needed it because it's been hard if I watch my grandparents fizzle away more specifically my dad grandfather who was |
| 1113 | 03:09:12 --> 03:09:26 | like my dad cancer took him out in to watch her mom go out like that. It's not it's not something anybody should see. And I had a lot of people send |
| 1114 | 03:09:26 --> 03:09:38 | condolences and also personal thank yous and you knew who you are. Thank you very much. And that dates me Thank you brother they sent sent us personal |
| 1115 | 03:09:38 --> 03:09:47 | condolences. What we're not trying to drawing special attention, which I'm not trying to do. You know who you are, and we appreciate you thank you |
| 1116 | 03:09:57 --> 03:10:00 | all right. So we have The |
| 1117 | 03:10:10 --> 03:10:20 | press straight up into a Faraday get with a bearish order block. And we're sitting right at the low of the opening range gap. Now here is one of those |
| 1118 | 03:10:20 --> 03:10:31 | times where if it does this, I'm done. I'm not looking at anymore. Since we came back up here, this is essentially enough of this run here. So we look at the |
| 1119 | 03:10:31 --> 03:10:42 | bodies from this highest one here, down to the lowest one here. If you look at I'll put on the fibs, you can see what I'm referring to? Why are you using the |
| 1120 | 03:10:42 --> 03:10:54 | wicks here in the bodies? And why are you doing this and doing that? It's based on using both of them. Okay, and if it if it aligns with an expectation or |
| 1121 | 03:10:54 --> 03:11:01 | narrative, since I'm expecting price to want to go down here that I've maintained that all throughout this morning, I've not deviated from that, I'm |
| 1122 | 03:11:01 --> 03:11:08 | not interested in going up, I'm not interested in trying to buy along, I'm not trying to do any of that. I'm looking for something to allow or afford a |
| 1123 | 03:11:08 --> 03:11:21 | framework that allows price to present a setup to study where it reaches down below these lows, stab into here, and I think accelerates through that then we |
| 1124 | 03:11:21 --> 03:11:28 | can get down here. And then we judge and watch and see does it want to go through here and then make an attempt to go below that low here. That's where |
| 1125 | 03:11:28 --> 03:11:38 | the largest pool of liquidity is. That has not evaporated. The largest draw on liquidity is this 18,006 level. Okay, we've created this run on the buy side |
| 1126 | 03:11:38 --> 03:11:48 | there, we've ran below these lows consolidated all around the bottom of that shaded in pink area, that's the opening range low. We traded up into |
| 1127 | 03:11:48 --> 03:11:59 | inefficiency here and look where that was right at the 50% level using the bodies, because the body is telling you the bulk of that price run is linked to |
| 1128 | 03:11:59 --> 03:12:09 | those parameters that that's the outside boundaries. But because the wicks are always where the damage is done, that's where they reach beyond the scope of |
| 1129 | 03:12:09 --> 03:12:19 | what would be reasonable, which is in my mind, in my mind, I use the bodies of the price swings. But I afford myself navigation within that price run by |
| 1130 | 03:12:19 --> 03:12:30 | utilizing and measuring the wicks. But if I'm measuring in terms of premium to discount, or if I'm using ranges where if there's a whole lot of spiky price |
| 1131 | 03:12:30 --> 03:12:38 | action where we only had this one here, I use that as that well, that's in price action, it's something that I'm not going to attribute a whole lot of influences |
| 1132 | 03:12:38 --> 03:12:48 | behind. So I'm going to look at the bodies here, I'm going to measure that, if I measured using the the highest wick high and the lowest wick low here in that |
| 1133 | 03:12:48 --> 03:12:58 | price run, it still affords me the same price level. But even if it didn't do that I would side with using the bodies. So in this case, it gives me both the |
| 1134 | 03:12:58 --> 03:13:06 | same perspective that we're trading back to equilibrium when bearish. That's the same thing as being short term premium. And I'll say that, again, I said this |
| 1135 | 03:13:06 --> 03:13:15 | and taught this in the free content. It's on my YouTube channel, which was paid mentorship or content. That lesson where I'm teaching premium and discount |
| 1136 | 03:13:16 --> 03:13:29 | equilibrium, based on your premise based on your bias based on where you think the price is going to draw to. Okay, equilibrium can act as support or |
| 1137 | 03:13:29 --> 03:13:43 | resistance in retail perspective. But it is premium when it's bearish when it goes to the midpoint. So equilibrant is premium here. And or if I'm bullish, and |
| 1138 | 03:13:43 --> 03:13:51 | we trade up above it and trade back down, that can be discount. It doesn't need to trade below equilibrium to the lowest end of the range that I'm defining for |
| 1139 | 03:13:51 --> 03:14:03 | discount and premium. So it's a matter of knowing what you're looking for. And then framing the equilibrium level based on that premise. So plate plainly said, |
| 1140 | 03:14:03 --> 03:14:13 | If I'm bearish, the midpoint if it retraces back to that, that's enough to act as over bought or premium. I don't need an indicator to tell me that. Okay. Bye |
| 1141 | 03:14:13 --> 03:14:23 | having this understanding. We don't need to have a Williams for sonar, we don't need to have a stochastic or RSI or CCI or MACD. And all of that stuff is |
| 1142 | 03:14:23 --> 03:14:34 | outside the realm of necessity. Knowing what range you're in based on time, everything becomes apparent when you look at it that way. And then if you have a |
| 1143 | 03:14:34 --> 03:14:46 | PDA right we have here and it joins with that same idea, then okay, then this now becomes important Hi, where it should not trade above that before taking the |
| 1144 | 03:14:46 --> 03:14:54 | sell side or reaching down here. And if we do that it should accelerate down here. That's what I'd like to see. This is the extra the low hanging fruit is |
| 1145 | 03:14:54 --> 03:15:03 | there. The plus or the extra credit would be if it trades down here and you're short you Leave something on as a runner, don't close the entire trade off and |
| 1146 | 03:15:03 --> 03:15:12 | let it try to reach down to here. So you can see everything I've talked about today. And in looking at formatting it, where now we're getting a run below the |
| 1147 | 03:15:12 --> 03:15:25 | low, there, we take that line, what I'm referring to. So now where we are, I don't want to see it trading back above here. If it does, then we're going to |
| 1148 | 03:15:25 --> 03:15:32 | spend the rest of the day trading back above this high, and maybe even retracing a little bit. And that's not something I want to be a part of. Because we're so |
| 1149 | 03:15:32 --> 03:15:43 | close to this level here. I'm filtering out any other setup, because to me, I'm more comfortable looking for short down here. And it's convinced me that it has |
| 1150 | 03:15:44 --> 03:15:53 | done enough to knock out the shorts by taking that run here. they've accumulated them, I told you that this low is in relative price to that. So really, |
| 1151 | 03:15:53 --> 03:16:02 | essentially, should it be like this, there's a relatively cool low. So there's a smaller pool of liquidity in the form of sell side there. And it would be |
| 1152 | 03:16:02 --> 03:16:14 | reasonable to see it want to try to trade down into that. Right there. Okay, and how much further can it go beyond that, if it goes below was if it doesn't want |
| 1153 | 03:16:14 --> 03:16:22 | to take these lows out here, but does want to take these lows out how far below that low can it go. And that's when we refer to this fair value gap right there. |
| 1154 | 03:16:22 --> 03:16:31 | And that's why that's been denuded on the chart. So everything is now been explained where we are right now, I'm not interested in seeing anything that |
| 1155 | 03:16:31 --> 03:16:40 | takes up this high. Now, if we take out that low, where it's shaded blue, I said the largest largest pool of liquidity is, if it went down below that, it could |
| 1156 | 03:16:40 --> 03:16:47 | draw all the way back up to here. And that would be something I would expect, not something I would trade. But I don't expect that we're going to see this |
| 1157 | 03:16:47 --> 03:16:54 | high taken out until at least these lows have been taken out and make an attempt to get into here, then you watch and see does it want to trade down below here? |
| 1158 | 03:16:54 --> 03:17:05 | So how could you use that? Well, if it gives you an opportunity to take a short, you would take a partial here, a partial here, a partial here, and then you |
| 1159 | 03:17:05 --> 03:17:18 | leave a runner right here, my stomach, I'm fasting, I'm hungry. But this will be your like the best case scenario or like the the absolute best in terms of the |
| 1160 | 03:17:18 --> 03:17:25 | setup for targeting purposes would be that blue line here because that's the largest pool of liquidity on sell side. Because since March, that's where all |
| 1161 | 03:17:25 --> 03:17:38 | the the resting cell limit forms are cell stops would be in all the bullishness that Marcus has has been producing. Because I mean, it's thinking like, well, |
| 1162 | 03:17:38 --> 03:17:46 | what if you don't have enough to take partials there, then you have to come to the conclusion that okay, what am I willing to take based on what your risk |
| 1163 | 03:17:46 --> 03:17:56 | would be. So if you entered a short, and you don't have it yet, by the way, the the idea of where you start, if you're brand new, and you're not finding some |
| 1164 | 03:17:56 --> 03:18:05 | consistency yet, or haven't found any understanding yet, with using the concepts I'm teaching, as soon as it trades below these lows here, you would take it off |
| 1165 | 03:18:05 --> 03:18:15 | there, and then monitor it in paper traded, basically, you know, in your mind, without having a demo account, see paper trading, is not demoing, demoing is |
| 1166 | 03:18:15 --> 03:18:24 | actually executing, and you have something that you measure your actual entry to stop loss, the targets. Paper trading is what we did before anybody had a |
| 1167 | 03:18:24 --> 03:18:32 | electronic demo account. Back when I first started trading, like you had to phone your orders in, and there was no paper accounts that that didn't happen, |
| 1168 | 03:18:32 --> 03:18:41 | you literally pretended by writing down where you thought you would get in. And that's, you know, up for the bait, how much you want to fluff it up. So I always |
| 1169 | 03:18:41 --> 03:18:50 | use the worst case scenario. So at the at the five minute time period, where I'm assuming that I would be entering, I use the worst possible fill that would have |
| 1170 | 03:18:50 --> 03:18:56 | been available in that candle. That's how I did it. Because that's about what's going to happen when you try to trade because when you when you're beginning, |
| 1171 | 03:18:56 --> 03:19:03 | you're going to wait for a price to move in your favor when you seen something form the rules, say do it. But then you want to sit there and watch. Let me see |
| 1172 | 03:19:03 --> 03:19:11 | if it would move in my favor if it does. And if it does, okay, let's move to our handles. Let me get in here. That's about the reality of what it's like when |
| 1173 | 03:19:11 --> 03:19:18 | you're beginning how to do this, whether you're using my stuff or anybody else's, it's, you want to be comfortable. And you have to learn to be |
| 1174 | 03:19:18 --> 03:19:28 | comfortable being uncomfortable. And I'm gonna say that again, because it's real important. In trading, you have to grow comfortable with being uncomfortable, |
| 1175 | 03:19:29 --> 03:19:39 | not knowing the outcome is always going to be there. That's always going to be there. Now I like what it's doing here. I like the fact that we wycked up. |
| 1176 | 03:19:40 --> 03:19:50 | I'd like to see it break lower, doesn't mean it will but if it breaks lower and that will be displacement. Any fear that you got from a run from where we are |
| 1177 | 03:19:50 --> 03:19:58 | now and not before taking these loads. If it's if it runs and takes the loads out here, then it's a wash. I'm done. I'm gonna kill the string there. But I |
| 1178 | 03:19:58 --> 03:20:09 | want to see a fair Vegas form between the bottom of that shaded area in pink. And before these loads are swept or traded below. So if it makes a run rate |
| 1179 | 03:20:09 --> 03:20:17 | straight down to it, that's something that's going to happen to you, you don't have the opportunity to participate in it. But why don't you sell short here? |
| 1180 | 03:20:17 --> 03:20:23 | Like, why wouldn't you want to sell short here, because that's not my model. That's not what I would take a trade on. Because look what it's leaving right |
| 1181 | 03:20:23 --> 03:20:34 | here. You see that, that's enough for it to start to drop a little bit and come up, bang that out, go into that very fair value gap and complete that volume |
| 1182 | 03:20:34 --> 03:20:41 | imbalance there until still take out the trailed stop losses because someone's short here. And now they're looking for it to drop here. And then they'll see |
| 1183 | 03:20:41 --> 03:20:48 | that as well. That's the resistance, as we saw over here. It just failed that time. But it's going to work now because I'm in a trade. So I look for how |
| 1184 | 03:20:48 --> 03:20:55 | retail would interpret price action. Because I know that that's usually the crowd that's going to get stopped out. And I don't want to trade ahead or |
| 1185 | 03:20:55 --> 03:21:04 | something like that. If it's available, I will trade when they get stopped out. So what I mean by that, well, that would be seeing it run up in here, I would |
| 1186 | 03:21:05 --> 03:21:18 | anticipate this little shaded area to get those that change between the body here and the body, there is a resume a little bit there's a small little |
| 1187 | 03:21:18 --> 03:21:33 | separation between that opening price and that closing price. Look at the closing price on that candle at 140. Oops, at 152. And an opening price here is |
| 1188 | 03:21:34 --> 03:21:43 | 151. It's also a quarter of a point, okay, or one tick, that's still a volume imbalance. It's a separation between the two bodies. So if you're going to |
| 1189 | 03:21:43 --> 03:21:52 | highlight this fair value up here to here, you got to go back to that candles close because volume and balance has to be incorporated in the fair value. |
| 1190 | 03:22:29 --> 03:22:40 | This price action is not easy, okay. It's not like a clear, simple little market structure, everything goes right to assemble and balance or run stops, and it |
| 1191 | 03:22:40 --> 03:22:49 | runs right away real quick. It's hanging around, it's stagnant. It's a lot of give and take. And unless you are very, very dialed in and fortunate to get the |
| 1192 | 03:22:49 --> 03:23:03 | right one and specific about what you're getting out at these days are extremely challenging. And while I don't usually have any interest in doing what I'm about |
| 1193 | 03:23:03 --> 03:23:09 | to say here, I'm probably going to do it if my wife doesn't come home beforehand. I'm going to go back and look at some of the individuals I'd like to |
| 1194 | 03:23:09 --> 03:23:18 | see when the live stream and see what the results were today. I'm not trying to say I hope they failed. And I'm not saying anything bad. But I'm not going to be |
| 1195 | 03:23:18 --> 03:23:27 | surprised. I'm never surprised when they're honest. And they say, you know, this is a really hard day or, and many times if I'm listening to them, and I see a |
| 1196 | 03:23:27 --> 03:23:35 | day like this, I'm nodding I'm saying you're feeling exactly what you should feel. And if they didn't know betrayed or if they didn't take a trade at all, |
| 1197 | 03:23:35 --> 03:23:45 | you know, to me, I think that they should be patting themselves on the back. Because you don't want to force something in a day like today is very, very |
| 1198 | 03:23:45 --> 03:23:58 | difficult. Because there's bait being offered all the time. Even using what I use, okay, like I see this is obvious, okay. But they can get real close to it |
| 1199 | 03:23:58 --> 03:24:07 | today. Or not even go there at all. And by understanding that just simply because I think it's gonna go down here and I have years of experience doing it |
| 1200 | 03:24:08 --> 03:24:20 | in no way guarantees it's gonna go there. But I have to have factors in line that build on itself where it allows me to trust Oh, yeah, it's there now. It's |
| 1201 | 03:24:20 --> 03:24:29 | not there yet. So when I'm explaining to you what I'd like to see what I don't like hopefully that helps frame why it's not always important for you to be |
| 1202 | 03:24:29 --> 03:24:43 | pushing the button just simply because you're in from the chart doesn't mean anything. We we've been here What 34 minutes or 35 minutes after eight. So we've |
| 1203 | 03:24:43 --> 03:24:58 | been here for a little while and nothing has been real clear cut. What I'm waiting for in the setup that would align with that hasn't formed yet. And you |
| 1204 | 03:24:58 --> 03:25:05 | as a trader You're not going to be comfortable with this, you're gonna get impatient, you just want to get through it, give me something, let me get in |
| 1205 | 03:25:05 --> 03:25:12 | here and see what happens. And that's when you lose money. So this little imbalance right in here and taking out these relatively equal highs, I like to |
| 1206 | 03:25:12 --> 03:25:18 | see that happen. And then if it can reject that, that's even better. Thanks. |
| 1207 | 03:25:24 --> 03:25:31 | But if it runs to this and above it and takes out that high, no longer interested in the day, not coming back in the afternoon, I would like to see it |
| 1208 | 03:25:31 --> 03:25:40 | trade later in the afternoon, down here, and then take out these lows. And if it can accelerate down there, that'd be cool. It'd be nice to say what it did it, |
| 1209 | 03:25:40 --> 03:25:49 | but I wasn't part of it. So that's still encouraging for a student, if you've never seen anything like that, if it pans out, oh, well, it did reach for that |
| 1210 | 03:25:49 --> 03:25:57 | liquidity. So we had an expectation to see it trade there. But like every other trade forums and every other market, you're not trading, you can't go around |
| 1211 | 03:25:57 --> 03:26:04 | saying, Oh, I didn't take that trade. That's like saying I didn't buy the winning lottery ticket, that one in the state that I live in, but somebody else |
| 1212 | 03:26:04 --> 03:26:11 | want it, you can't, you can't assume that that was going to be you winning it. And you can't assume that you were going to participate in it, you may have been |
| 1213 | 03:26:11 --> 03:26:18 | distracted. And you know, it could have been, it could have ran, when I was showing you to cook a chart, I could have missed it. If it moved and created the |
| 1214 | 03:26:18 --> 03:26:25 | fair value gap it could have happened, then, you know, it would have been unfortunate if it happened that way. But you're not going to be in every move. |
| 1215 | 03:26:25 --> 03:26:32 | And you can't expect yourself to be in every move, you can't beat yourself up because you weren't in the move. So you can only make yourself available for |
| 1216 | 03:26:32 --> 03:26:43 | when you have trading times operating hours. And you have to limit your exposure to the markets to what you're able to do. And live in those moments. Don't look |
| 1217 | 03:26:43 --> 03:26:52 | at Oh, it was if it was up during London, I could have done it and I don't even wake up for London anymore. You 52 years old, I'm finding myself wanting to go |
| 1218 | 03:26:52 --> 03:27:01 | to bed at nine o'clock now. Like I'm turning my fall of my life. And I think I fell asleep last night. Hold on one second? |
| 1219 | 03:28:00 --> 03:28:09 | Well, that was my wife she came in as I asked her to take the pups out. She's talking about the kennel, she's outside on the phone with our pool company. So |
| 1220 | 03:28:09 --> 03:28:16 | that's going to end our session here today. I apologize. It wasn't all that eventful. If the price action would have been more accommodating, I would have |
| 1221 | 03:28:16 --> 03:28:25 | done something for you. But I don't know what her schedule is going to be because she's going to tell me when I get off here. So I don't know if I have |
| 1222 | 03:28:25 --> 03:28:36 | something available before we close this week out. But if I if I do if I have time, I will gladly because I enjoy having time to talk with you today. But I |
| 1223 | 03:28:36 --> 03:28:47 | can go in and again start another live stream. But though. Okay, I can't promise you know when that is because I'm at the mercy of what she needs from me. So, in |
| 1224 | 03:28:47 --> 03:28:55 | closing, I'm going to say this watch and see if we trade up into this little white shaded area if we trade there, but not above here, trade here and drop |
| 1225 | 03:28:55 --> 03:29:02 | lower, take the sell side trade into this fair value gap here. That would be a partial. In other words, I would like to see it go below here, but also just |
| 1226 | 03:29:02 --> 03:29:11 | touching that line right there. But one tick above it, I would have a limit order above that in a demo account. Okay, that would be a first partial for me, |
| 1227 | 03:29:11 --> 03:29:19 | then the second partial would be the midpoint of this wick here or consequent coachmen. I don't need it to go below the low. Okay, why? Because the bodies are |
| 1228 | 03:29:19 --> 03:29:26 | closer together. It may not go below that low, but it could go down to the consequent appropriate plus one tick above. So partial number two, and then the |
| 1229 | 03:29:26 --> 03:29:35 | best case closing scenario would be down here. So that would be the close of all my interest for being short today. Anything other than okay, you can say it this |
| 1230 | 03:29:35 --> 03:29:44 | way. If it trades here. I'm not taking it. I'm not even putting in a demo account. But assume for a moment based on what I'm saying. I would go short |
| 1231 | 03:29:44 --> 03:29:52 | here. Stop loss will be up here. Yes, it's a lot. But I'm not over leveraging. I'm not trying to tell you to over leverage. And that's how we're treated in and |
| 1232 | 03:29:52 --> 03:30:03 | I would look for what I just said here. And once it takes out the fair value gap here, the stop loss would be at plus 10. So I would lock in 10 handles, and if |
| 1233 | 03:30:03 --> 03:30:11 | it stopped me plus 10 afterwards and then went down here, who cares? But that's how I would look at the rest of the day. Based on what I'm looking at right now. |
| 1234 | 03:30:11 --> 03:30:21 | Everything could change when I get off mine, but that's how we're treated right now. Okay, so that's it for today. I enjoyed jawboning with y'all, I needed it. |
| 1235 | 03:30:21 --> 03:30:30 | I needed to be able to have this sooner but I couldn't do it. So that's life. That's what it's like being married. And I guess that's the brakes for today. |
| 1236 | 03:30:30 --> 03:30:31 | But until I'll talk to you next time |