ICT YT - 2023-12-08 - December 2023 Non Farm Payroll Live Execution and Explanations
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-09-27 13:18
1 | 00:00:00 --> 00:00:06 | ICT: Well, good morning. Good morning. Good morning is a good price. Here's a |
2 | 00:00:06 --> 00:00:11 | four hour chart on es just let me know I'm bullish. I think we're gonna try to |
3 | 00:00:11 --> 00:00:20 | press higher. And we'll jump into a 15 minute timeframe. See that fairway |
4 | 00:00:20 --> 00:00:25 | getting right there, I missed that dilly dally and waiting for this Camtasia |
5 | 00:00:26 --> 00:00:31 | platform to start. So this is where I believe we're gonna rip up into and hire |
6 | 00:00:35 --> 00:00:38 | Okay, and I may |
7 | 00:00:43 --> 00:00:57 | see if I use that and then put the stop below there's a little why because it |
8 | 00:00:57 --> 00:01:08 | must be for non farm payrolls, wild and wooly price action. So right in there, |
9 | 00:01:09 --> 00:01:19 | I'll make it white. So it's a contrast. So inside that for our for Vega, it's in |
10 | 00:01:19 --> 00:01:26 | a discount relative to that low to the high, we drop down. There's a small |
11 | 00:01:26 --> 00:01:32 | little gap in here I'm watching and see how it behaves in here as well. But this |
12 | 00:01:32 --> 00:01:39 | is the one that's the inefficiency. Oh, and like, give us an allowance, you know |
13 | 00:01:39 --> 00:01:44 | that that will take that thank you so much. Alright, so that might look like a |
14 | 00:01:44 --> 00:01:49 | lot of money with you. But it's really not in the grand scheme of things. And |
15 | 00:01:49 --> 00:02:01 | we'll take five off of here. And just so you understand what I'm referring to |
16 | 00:02:01 --> 00:02:04 | here, and what's making this even important at all, is that this is a |
17 | 00:02:04 --> 00:02:09 | Judas swing. Yes, initially, we had this little run up in here. But notice it did |
18 | 00:02:09 --> 00:02:14 | not take the buy side here, here, or here. This is what they're tricking |
19 | 00:02:14 --> 00:02:23 | traders to trust this resistance, okay. In here this inefficiency when price |
20 | 00:02:23 --> 00:02:28 | started to rally up, and between this high been taken out through here, in |
21 | 00:02:28 --> 00:02:34 | this low forming that range, if we look through that, and we only focus on this |
22 | 00:02:34 --> 00:02:44 | segment of price action right in here. Okay, you know, color that yellow. Okay, |
23 | 00:02:44 --> 00:02:53 | so all of us wanted. So all of this price range that ran from this area here |
24 | 00:02:53 --> 00:02:59 | to here, all that price run, what I'm looking at is how price started the |
25 | 00:02:59 --> 00:03:07 | rally here came up to this candles high and then retreated. repriced, back down |
26 | 00:03:07 --> 00:03:14 | into the low end here. So from this high that candle to that candles low. This is |
27 | 00:03:14 --> 00:03:20 | all efficiently delivered price action. Meaning that it's like a paint roller |
28 | 00:03:20 --> 00:03:25 | analogy I use if you're painting your wall your home, when you apply the paint |
29 | 00:03:25 --> 00:03:29 | to the roller and like place the roller against the wall and you roll it up the |
30 | 00:03:29 --> 00:03:36 | first few inches of the paint being delivered to the wall, it's ample, |
31 | 00:03:36 --> 00:03:42 | meaning that it's very significant amount of paint being distributed to the |
32 | 00:03:42 --> 00:03:47 | wall surface. But eventually, as that roller keeps being being pressed higher, |
33 | 00:03:47 --> 00:03:53 | it runs out of the amount of paint that would be equally distributed on the |
34 | 00:03:53 --> 00:03:57 | surface of the wall. And you'll start seeing these little horse pockets, which |
35 | 00:03:57 --> 00:04:03 | is what this has been shown here, this little chip, which is that one single |
36 | 00:04:03 --> 00:04:08 | candle. Take that off. So this inefficiency here, just like if you were |
37 | 00:04:08 --> 00:04:13 | rolling a paint roller with paint and applying it to this area here. Well, |
38 | 00:04:13 --> 00:04:17 | looking back at where you just rolled the paint roller, this is a little area |
39 | 00:04:17 --> 00:04:23 | where the paint wasn't equally distributed. Because of this very |
40 | 00:04:23 --> 00:04:30 | candle. Let me widen them a little bit. This candle here it's high right there. |
41 | 00:04:30 --> 00:04:35 | And then the next candle after big up close candle here. There's a gap where |
42 | 00:04:35 --> 00:04:40 | there was nothing offered back down to at least touch this candles high. So |
43 | 00:04:40 --> 00:04:44 | that's what makes a fair value gap, a fair value gap. Okay, why did I name it |
44 | 00:04:44 --> 00:04:50 | and coin a fair value gap? It's offering fair value. If you're bullish, and this |
45 | 00:04:50 --> 00:04:54 | is the part that news still escapes many of you that are running around trying to |
46 | 00:04:54 --> 00:04:57 | talk about fair I guess when most the time don't really know what you're doing |
47 | 00:04:57 --> 00:05:02 | it and I Understand the Zeel it's exciting because you're you're handling |
48 | 00:05:02 --> 00:05:06 | something that you know and see it works. And you're, you're discovering |
49 | 00:05:06 --> 00:05:14 | new multi facets to something that you're on the road the progression to |
50 | 00:05:14 --> 00:05:18 | understanding. But don't try to teach it yet because you don't know what you're |
51 | 00:05:18 --> 00:05:23 | doing it. But I appreciate and love the zeal and all of your excitement about |
52 | 00:05:23 --> 00:05:30 | it. But this little area in here, it's lacking movement back down to at least |
53 | 00:05:30 --> 00:05:34 | at least touch this candle is high. Okay, so because this candle is high and |
54 | 00:05:34 --> 00:05:40 | at candles low, there's only one pass in delivery price and it's going up, you |
55 | 00:05:40 --> 00:05:48 | see that? So that movement up? How does that re distribute efficiency in market |
56 | 00:05:48 --> 00:05:53 | delivery for price, it must do what offering going back down at a later |
57 | 00:05:53 --> 00:05:58 | time. While we're seeing it 830, which is nonfarm payroll Friday, this is where |
58 | 00:05:58 --> 00:06:02 | we're at happening on payroll, the market drops back down into that area |
59 | 00:06:02 --> 00:06:06 | overshoots a little bit. But that's, that's fine. Because all of this area in |
60 | 00:06:06 --> 00:06:12 | here is a balanced price range. So goes down into the range. I mentioned it to |
61 | 00:06:12 --> 00:06:18 | you live. It's part of that for our fair value guy. Okay, so the market has shown |
62 | 00:06:18 --> 00:06:25 | a willingness to want to reach back up in to this area up in here. So what |
63 | 00:06:25 --> 00:06:30 | we're gonna be watching now is, does price want to at least trade back above |
64 | 00:06:31 --> 00:06:38 | the consequent encroachment of this wick, which is here. And once I drop |
65 | 00:06:38 --> 00:06:44 | this level on, and I'll have the quarter segment, each one of these is a |
66 | 00:06:44 --> 00:06:50 | quadrant. And it's not quarters theory, by the way. And what's all this business |
67 | 00:06:50 --> 00:06:54 | about Goldbach levels, I don't do anything with Goldbach. The price |
68 | 00:06:54 --> 00:07:01 | engines the algorithm itself. Enigma has no association with Goldbach. Okay, so |
69 | 00:07:01 --> 00:07:06 | for the folks that are out there trying to claim that it is it's not okay, stop |
70 | 00:07:06 --> 00:07:10 | doing that kind of stuff. Because you're you're sowing misinformation. And I'm |
71 | 00:07:10 --> 00:07:15 | going to call you out on it. So anyway, let's jump into a five minute chart. And |
72 | 00:07:15 --> 00:07:20 | you can see the bodies respecting that for our fair value get high. And see |
73 | 00:07:20 --> 00:07:26 | that. And our focus is does it want to trade above that consequent |
74 | 00:07:26 --> 00:07:36 | encouragement right here that midpoint. So I would like to pair my lungs with |
75 | 00:07:36 --> 00:07:46 | the existing by stops that are resting above you might hear my puppy snoring, |
76 | 00:07:47 --> 00:07:53 | the buy stops that are resting on this old high here. So I want to see it go |
77 | 00:07:53 --> 00:08:00 | there. Because there's actual orders resting up there. And the initial run on |
78 | 00:08:00 --> 00:08:04 | Non Farm Payroll generally is kind of like a FOMC event. It's a fake move. And |
79 | 00:08:04 --> 00:08:10 | I don't see this initial rally is the fake move. Okay, it's more this trending |
80 | 00:08:10 --> 00:08:12 | back down. And this really gets everybody thinking it's gonna go lower. |
81 | 00:08:13 --> 00:08:16 | And you're probably watching live streamers right now they're probably |
82 | 00:08:16 --> 00:08:23 | extremely bearish. And I'm not. So let's do this |
83 | 00:08:30 --> 00:08:38 | inside, right, so right away, you know, I can be taking something off because |
84 | 00:08:38 --> 00:08:47 | it's not from payroll Friday, it's it's moved enough to warrant a measure of |
85 | 00:08:47 --> 00:08:51 | profit taking it certainly the five handles minimum I preach and teach that |
86 | 00:08:52 --> 00:08:57 | you should be striving for about one give it some time, but it took a little |
87 | 00:08:57 --> 00:09:05 | bit. And I would like to see it in the event that it does want to go up here |
88 | 00:09:05 --> 00:09:10 | and shake out and then go lower again, I'm going to put a limit order right at |
89 | 00:09:10 --> 00:09:17 | the consequent curtailment level for just one contract. Because I'm not |
90 | 00:09:17 --> 00:09:19 | certain I'm gonna be able to pyramid anything on this. And because non farm |
91 | 00:09:19 --> 00:09:26 | payrolls kind of woolly, it does some pretty gnarly stuff. So if it can reach |
92 | 00:09:26 --> 00:09:29 | above this area here, one more pass up in there that will allow me to at least |
93 | 00:09:29 --> 00:09:32 | get something out of it. And then I can roll the stop to break even then I can |
94 | 00:09:32 --> 00:09:35 | just sacrifice the rest of the position. And some of you might say, Well, why |
95 | 00:09:35 --> 00:09:41 | would you want to do that? You're leaving 7000 $8,000 on the table. And |
96 | 00:09:41 --> 00:09:46 | the reason why I'm saying that is because of experience. You're not going |
97 | 00:09:46 --> 00:09:51 | to get the big runs or big wins, unless you hold for. If you don't ever hold on |
98 | 00:09:51 --> 00:09:56 | to it. You'll never get the big large range days you'll never get them. So you |
99 | 00:09:56 --> 00:10:02 | have to allow for it to sometimes Take it all back, except for a small little |
100 | 00:10:02 --> 00:10:08 | piece. This way it covers costs, it covers commissions, it covers that |
101 | 00:10:08 --> 00:10:12 | little scratch that itch that you have, as a trader, when you're in a trade, you |
102 | 00:10:12 --> 00:10:17 | feel like you have to have something profitable, or it's, it's a total |
103 | 00:10:17 --> 00:10:27 | failure. I'm invested you a few minutes, that hasn't been very long, less than 10 |
104 | 00:10:27 --> 00:10:32 | minutes. And your 10 minutes is not a lot of time. So I can I can afford to |
105 | 00:10:33 --> 00:10:38 | have a move on the market. See it came out, give me a small little piece like |
106 | 00:10:38 --> 00:10:43 | it's about to hear. And then we're almost out to breakeven, and isn't the |
107 | 00:10:43 --> 00:10:49 | only time I've made $10,000. Okay, so here we go, just got taken out. So now I |
108 | 00:10:49 --> 00:10:55 | can roll my stop, to break even plus commissions plus a small little profit. |
109 | 00:10:55 --> 00:10:59 | And why am I not jamming and all we back up here because it could respect the |
110 | 00:10:59 --> 00:11:05 | same for our fair value gap. Hi, notice I have it sitting right here, you're |
111 | 00:11:05 --> 00:11:08 | probably wondering, Well, isn't that rate below that low, where they're |
112 | 00:11:08 --> 00:11:11 | sellside. They've already done the damage and rip through all of that. |
113 | 00:11:12 --> 00:11:16 | Okay, so what I want to do is I'm gonna sit and watch does it give me that |
114 | 00:11:16 --> 00:11:21 | close? Any close above this consequent encroachment level is going to be like |
115 | 00:11:21 --> 00:11:27 | the hand of the dealers, okay? being shown to you, they're going to show you |
116 | 00:11:27 --> 00:11:30 | their cards. If you can close above that level, meaning that I would like to see |
117 | 00:11:30 --> 00:11:36 | it, then run up here hit my limit order. And then at that time, or how it trades |
118 | 00:11:36 --> 00:11:41 | there, if at all, because I could be wrong, then I'll determine whether or |
119 | 00:11:41 --> 00:11:47 | not I want to take more off you manually or if I get stopped out it everything |
120 | 00:11:47 --> 00:11:51 | remains an uncertain right now. And that's the reason why I don't like |
121 | 00:11:51 --> 00:11:55 | trading Non Farm Payroll because it really is a gamble. And if I fail in |
122 | 00:11:55 --> 00:12:00 | seeing anything outside of what are you have posted here as a gain, and it comes |
123 | 00:12:00 --> 00:12:05 | back and starting out and only allows me to have this exit here. And where the |
124 | 00:12:05 --> 00:12:11 | stop losses when it comes back down. If he hits it, then you know, it is what it |
125 | 00:12:11 --> 00:12:15 | is it's done. But it's a wonderful experience for you to study. It's a |
126 | 00:12:15 --> 00:12:20 | wonderful experience for you to see why and appreciate why I don't actively go |
127 | 00:12:20 --> 00:12:28 | out here and try to participate. Because it's not something that I don't need |
128 | 00:12:28 --> 00:12:35 | this day of every month to need to feel good about being a trader. I've done it |
129 | 00:12:35 --> 00:12:40 | long enough. And I've been hurt enough times to know that this is a day, just |
130 | 00:12:40 --> 00:12:44 | like yesterday, Thursday, even though you saw me smoke it and literally |
131 | 00:12:44 --> 00:12:50 | destroy it. That's the two days of the month, where it might accuracy, my |
132 | 00:12:50 --> 00:13:00 | precision, my trust, my affinity for the market in itself is challenged. So I |
133 | 00:13:00 --> 00:13:05 | don't excel very well on those two days out of the month. So would it be |
134 | 00:13:06 --> 00:13:11 | advantageous for me to keep pushing in those two days, some might say, well, |
135 | 00:13:11 --> 00:13:15 | you should just go in here and try to overcome it. Well, I overcome it by not |
136 | 00:13:15 --> 00:13:18 | taking any risks in it. But today, I want to take those risks and show you |
137 | 00:13:18 --> 00:13:23 | that, you know, on the mack daddy, and there's none nothing like this in the |
138 | 00:13:23 --> 00:13:28 | marketplace. But there are times and it still could happen here where I can get |
139 | 00:13:28 --> 00:13:32 | it wrong. And getting it wrong is not failure. getting it wrong is not |
140 | 00:13:32 --> 00:13:38 | embarrassing. getting it wrong is not a I can't trade phenomenon. It's simply a |
141 | 00:13:38 --> 00:13:43 | much more challenging environment. So therefore, I'd simply avoid most at a |
142 | 00:13:43 --> 00:13:48 | time. But when asked to do so when you're pressed by real sincere students, |
143 | 00:13:49 --> 00:13:53 | I have no problem showing you. It's not it's not a big deal. So I like where |
144 | 00:13:53 --> 00:13:58 | we're at here, I want to see we're on a five minute chart. Let me add those |
145 | 00:14:00 --> 00:14:03 | levels back here. So I want to see it close above that consequent current |
146 | 00:14:03 --> 00:14:09 | level. If this candle can close above it, then that, to me indicates that the |
147 | 00:14:09 --> 00:14:12 | algorithm should if it if it just doesn't already run right up later and |
148 | 00:14:12 --> 00:14:18 | reach for it. As long as it closes about there. I'll trust that it will run for |
149 | 00:14:18 --> 00:14:23 | my at least my first limit order resting above here. But I'm gonna be very |
150 | 00:14:23 --> 00:14:27 | careful about how it trades here because it could run up rip that and then just |
151 | 00:14:27 --> 00:14:35 | drop in for you know, the 450 I'm sorry. 4590 two's Alright, so we closed above |
152 | 00:14:35 --> 00:14:42 | it. Now. My mindset is I trust I don't get afraid. I don't become nervous |
153 | 00:14:42 --> 00:14:46 | because we're seeing it down close candle information. It doesn't freak me |
154 | 00:14:46 --> 00:14:50 | out. It doesn't cause any anxieties. I'm gonna take this Fibonacci off because |
155 | 00:14:50 --> 00:14:54 | you've already accomplished the method here. But explaining to you what it was |
156 | 00:14:54 --> 00:14:59 | I was looking for. But I'm relaxed. What am I thinking? How far can it go back? |
157 | 00:15:00 --> 00:15:04 | down, well, we have these two consecutive down close candles, that |
158 | 00:15:04 --> 00:15:08 | body right there that can be treated as an order block. So it can trade back |
159 | 00:15:08 --> 00:15:12 | down, rip into this here and then go higher, I don't want to see it do that. |
160 | 00:15:12 --> 00:15:15 | Because the fact that it needs to go back down into this as an order block, |
161 | 00:15:16 --> 00:15:21 | if it needs to do that, that's far less probability in my favor, I want to see |
162 | 00:15:21 --> 00:15:25 | it not do so. So it's not a matter of knowing a PDA, right and expecting it to |
163 | 00:15:25 --> 00:15:30 | be hit and respected. There's also a balancing, of seeing the PDA right in |
164 | 00:15:30 --> 00:15:37 | price, but then also seeing and measuring the the magnitude of stuff |
165 | 00:15:37 --> 00:15:40 | strength or weakness in the market. In this case, I want to see strength, I'm |
166 | 00:15:40 --> 00:15:46 | gonna see price reaching up into without needing to come back down to a |
167 | 00:15:46 --> 00:15:49 | discounted rate, if it doesn't need to go back down and touch this candles |
168 | 00:15:49 --> 00:15:50 | body. And I'll show you what I mean by that. |
169 | 00:15:58 --> 00:16:05 | There. So when you see me, showing examples where it's silent executions, |
170 | 00:16:08 --> 00:16:13 | I'm testing this as a series, by the way, on the YouTube channel, where I'm |
171 | 00:16:13 --> 00:16:17 | doing the executions, and kind of talking about what it is that's going |
172 | 00:16:17 --> 00:16:21 | through my mind, I'm giving you the inner musings of ICT, as it happens real |
173 | 00:16:21 --> 00:16:27 | time. I don't want to see it, come down and hit that. But if it does, it's |
174 | 00:16:27 --> 00:16:31 | completely acceptable, it doesn't change the underlying narrative that we're |
175 | 00:16:31 --> 00:16:36 | going to likely go higher, it just means that it's better if it doesn't come down |
176 | 00:16:36 --> 00:16:41 | to hit that. Because if it doesn't go down and starts rallying, then it's |
177 | 00:16:41 --> 00:16:46 | really going to be bullish, it's really going to be an energetic price run to |
178 | 00:16:46 --> 00:16:51 | the upside. So there's a, there's a strong contrast to what you understand |
179 | 00:16:52 --> 00:16:55 | in unlimited capacity about my order block theory, where you would think, |
180 | 00:16:55 --> 00:16:59 | Okay, this makes sense to come down to hit that and then rally. But what |
181 | 00:16:59 --> 00:17:05 | happens if the market is so strong, in not patient enough to even want to go |
182 | 00:17:05 --> 00:17:10 | back down into that discount array? That means it's exceedingly bullish, right. |
183 | 00:17:11 --> 00:17:14 | And I want to be a part of that move. And I'm going to be in trades. And I |
184 | 00:17:14 --> 00:17:17 | want to hold on to my targets, when it's indicating those types of things. |
185 | 00:17:17 --> 00:17:22 | Because it's giving me a great advantage that retail can't perceive and price |
186 | 00:17:22 --> 00:17:27 | action, they have no idea what's going on, they have no idea what it's reaching |
187 | 00:17:27 --> 00:17:32 | for. I'm sitting here, I'm calmly explaining to you, there's no anxiety, |
188 | 00:17:32 --> 00:17:38 | there's no excitement, it's just this is the stuff that happens all the time. And |
189 | 00:17:38 --> 00:17:42 | it's just like the same route that you take to your job, you, you drive it all |
190 | 00:17:42 --> 00:17:46 | the time, you know, the person's house on the zone, so street that you're gonna |
191 | 00:17:46 --> 00:17:50 | pass, you know, all the things you know, the people that you're going to pass |
192 | 00:17:50 --> 00:17:55 | that are sitting in the bus stops. It's the same creatures of habit. While price |
193 | 00:17:55 --> 00:17:59 | action is the same way after doing it for so long. You get accustomed to it. |
194 | 00:18:00 --> 00:18:05 | So you're not surprised, okay. And surprise, invites the elements of fear |
195 | 00:18:06 --> 00:18:12 | and greed. If it starts to explode, I'm not going to go wow, look at that, where |
196 | 00:18:12 --> 00:18:18 | that comes from. And on the same coin, just turning the other side. If it were |
197 | 00:18:18 --> 00:18:22 | to drop and stop me out, I'm not surprised by that either, because it's |
198 | 00:18:22 --> 00:18:27 | the characteristic of this particular day of the month where it can absolutely |
199 | 00:18:28 --> 00:18:35 | fool me because it's highly manipulated. Okay, but given all the factors being |
200 | 00:18:35 --> 00:18:39 | equal, okay, assuming everything being equal is not Non Farm Payroll Friday, |
201 | 00:18:40 --> 00:18:43 | how would I trade this market environment? Um, that's what I'm, that's |
202 | 00:18:43 --> 00:18:47 | what I'm sharing with you right here. But I'm sharing under the pretense that |
203 | 00:18:47 --> 00:18:51 | it is any market condition that is admittedly by my own words, not just |
204 | 00:18:51 --> 00:18:56 | here today, but many times, okay, I always say NFP, Non Farm Payroll, I'm |
205 | 00:18:56 --> 00:19:00 | going to borrow a term I learned from Linda Raschke. It's not for |
206 | 00:19:00 --> 00:19:07 | professionals. Okay, so that idea stands true today. And right now, some of you |
207 | 00:19:07 --> 00:19:12 | should be scratching your head thinking, you know, if you're uncertain, and it's |
208 | 00:19:12 --> 00:19:18 | already showing unwillingness to rally continuously, why don't you just take |
209 | 00:19:18 --> 00:19:23 | more profits off here? I could, but I don't want to. I want you to see what |
210 | 00:19:23 --> 00:19:28 | it's like for me to try to trade like I normally do in this particular day. That |
211 | 00:19:28 --> 00:19:32 | way you can appreciate the characteristics and the difficulty of |
212 | 00:19:32 --> 00:19:38 | managing the emotions managing the the risk obviously is which is paramount. |
213 | 00:19:39 --> 00:19:44 | And knowing what that feels like watching it, but also trusting your role |
214 | 00:19:44 --> 00:19:50 | based ideas. So since these concepts are codified by me, and I understand them |
215 | 00:19:50 --> 00:19:54 | intimately, I am okay with it. Even if it comes back and starts me out. This |
216 | 00:19:54 --> 00:19:58 | isn't the only trade I'm ever going to win it. It's not the it's not the only |
217 | 00:19:58 --> 00:20:03 | day I can be profitable. But when you are a new trader, and you're not really |
218 | 00:20:03 --> 00:20:08 | versed in what it is that you're you should be focusing on, it's very easy to |
219 | 00:20:08 --> 00:20:15 | encapsulate or try to encapsulate the entirety of your career. On the results |
220 | 00:20:15 --> 00:20:18 | of that one trade that you're in right now, or the one you're about to take. |
221 | 00:20:19 --> 00:20:28 | The, the measure of your success is based on the trade right now. And you |
222 | 00:20:28 --> 00:20:33 | need to remove that. That's a plague. Okay, that's a terrible, toxic mindset. |
223 | 00:20:34 --> 00:20:39 | And that's why trading is very difficult for everyone, because, especially for |
224 | 00:20:39 --> 00:20:45 | men, because we are all about measuring up. And in trading, it really seizes on |
225 | 00:20:45 --> 00:20:50 | that weakness in the male mindset that they have to measure up. When this isn't |
226 | 00:20:50 --> 00:20:55 | about Olympic feet, it's about making money. That's all this is. It's unless |
227 | 00:20:55 --> 00:20:58 | you're in a competition. If you're in a trading competition, then all you know, |
228 | 00:20:58 --> 00:21:03 | then it's balls out, and let's see what happens. And who can do what, but on an |
229 | 00:21:03 --> 00:21:06 | everyday basis, running it as a business. When you're not gambling, |
230 | 00:21:06 --> 00:21:09 | you're not trying to over leverage because you want to have unrealistic |
231 | 00:21:09 --> 00:21:15 | expectations realized as a competition result or percentage gain. If it's just |
232 | 00:21:15 --> 00:21:18 | about making money, and you're running as a business, you're not going to take |
233 | 00:21:18 --> 00:21:23 | foolish risks. But you're not going to also worry. If you own a business of |
234 | 00:21:23 --> 00:21:27 | brick and mortar store that sold shoes, you know, you're not going to go to work |
235 | 00:21:27 --> 00:21:32 | every day worrying about the likelihood of people not wanting to wear shoes |
236 | 00:21:32 --> 00:21:36 | anymore, we're all going to wear shoes, we're all gonna have shoes, we're all |
237 | 00:21:36 --> 00:21:40 | gonna have a need for shoes, okay. And there's lots of different brands of |
238 | 00:21:40 --> 00:21:45 | shoes. Some are more popular than others. But the premise is that there is |
239 | 00:21:45 --> 00:21:50 | a real need, there is a model that can be exploited there, people are going to |
240 | 00:21:50 --> 00:21:55 | be born generally unless there's a birth defect, they're going to need covering |
241 | 00:21:55 --> 00:22:00 | for the feet. So therefore that market will always exist. My pdra is my models, |
242 | 00:22:00 --> 00:22:05 | okay, are based on that same idea that I know the market is going to reach for |
243 | 00:22:05 --> 00:22:09 | inefficiencies, then it's going to reach for liquidity, or it's going to reach |
244 | 00:22:09 --> 00:22:13 | for liquidity and then reach for inefficiencies, or vice versa. But those |
245 | 00:22:13 --> 00:22:18 | two premise permeate the understanding that I have with the marketplace, and I |
246 | 00:22:18 --> 00:22:22 | share with you as my students. So I'm not I'm not surprised when I'm looking |
247 | 00:22:22 --> 00:22:25 | at price action. I'm like, Oh, my goodness, wait, why did that happen? |
248 | 00:22:26 --> 00:22:31 | That's not That's not a concern. For me. My concern is, is am I following my |
249 | 00:22:31 --> 00:22:36 | model, am I following the rule based ideas that I've codified, implemented, |
250 | 00:22:36 --> 00:22:42 | and I've used for 30 years, so I'm not emotional about it. And frankly, I'm |
251 | 00:22:42 --> 00:22:46 | bored. And this is actually not all that exciting, like, I wanted to see a whole |
252 | 00:22:46 --> 00:22:49 | lot more movement for this particular Non Farm Payroll. |
253 | 00:23:02 --> 00:23:08 | So we've had one close above. I'm watching this candle here. |
254 | 00:23:13 --> 00:23:17 | And how it's behaving, we'll put the feedback on just to show you in |
255 | 00:23:17 --> 00:23:24 | relationship to that wick right here. So all of this was a initial rate. And then |
256 | 00:23:24 --> 00:23:28 | they dropped the object down into a deep discount. We've had one close above, |
257 | 00:23:28 --> 00:23:33 | this one didn't close above, and we're now just below it. So I'm demanding |
258 | 00:23:33 --> 00:23:39 | price action to show me another close above here. If this doesn't close above |
259 | 00:23:39 --> 00:23:44 | it, I will take three contracts off just to fund the position and they get a |
260 | 00:23:44 --> 00:23:56 | little bit better. Payment for my time. Okay, about 40 seconds to the close of |
261 | 00:23:56 --> 00:24:02 | that candle. We're on a five minute candlestick chart, by the way. folks |
262 | 00:24:02 --> 00:24:06 | asking can you do things with finance or I don't like the one minute charts too |
263 | 00:24:06 --> 00:24:13 | fast. It's the same market. The fluctuations that you're watching from |
264 | 00:24:13 --> 00:24:21 | Port 458 5.50 2.75. That's, that's happening the same speed on a minute |
265 | 00:24:21 --> 00:24:26 | chart, it's happening the same speed on a five second chart or one second, it's |
266 | 00:24:26 --> 00:24:32 | the same. The price action is the same. You need to stop thinking and being |
267 | 00:24:32 --> 00:24:36 | imprisoned by timeframes. Alright, so it didn't close. You see that. So I'm going |
268 | 00:24:36 --> 00:24:45 | to take three off there. So now I'm well funded on this. And now if it were to |
269 | 00:24:45 --> 00:24:48 | come all the way back down in, it stopped me out. It's completely |
270 | 00:24:48 --> 00:24:53 | irrelevant. Now. I've made more than the average person makes in a week's Wait, |
271 | 00:24:54 --> 00:24:58 | even that professional wage, and I've done so in just a few minutes of the |
272 | 00:24:58 --> 00:25:01 | worst trading environment day The other month, which is Non Farm Payroll Friday |
273 | 00:25:04 --> 00:25:08 | in local markets behaving here, so we trading in the debt waterblock. And this |
274 | 00:25:08 --> 00:25:16 | is where I would demand the importance of not importance. But the |
275 | 00:25:16 --> 00:25:22 | characteristic that this should send price higher. Were in this area, he all |
276 | 00:25:22 --> 00:25:26 | of this price action here was a raid. That's my entire interpretation of price |
277 | 00:25:26 --> 00:25:31 | action. And I'm believing that they're going to want to rip up into this area |
278 | 00:25:31 --> 00:25:36 | here because they want to attack people that are short. And they enticed people |
279 | 00:25:36 --> 00:25:42 | to get short. But they stopped anyone that was already short ahead of time, |
280 | 00:25:42 --> 00:25:46 | before 830, they come up, knock them out, so they can't get a part of this |
281 | 00:25:46 --> 00:25:49 | move where you can get really good profits and cover at a really nice |
282 | 00:25:49 --> 00:25:58 | handsome profit. Then they took it all back up here thinking okay. There is no |
283 | 00:25:58 --> 00:26:09 | necessity for price to do what? Pay long holders. Nobody wants to be long. Nobody |
284 | 00:26:09 --> 00:26:15 | would trust being short, as a smart money, mindset. They want to be long. |
285 | 00:26:16 --> 00:26:20 | dipping down here as the discount, that's this is all trap. But they |
286 | 00:26:20 --> 00:26:24 | cancelled out the potential for profitability for anyone that was short |
287 | 00:26:24 --> 00:26:28 | that show their stop loss rate in here. So if they didn't trail their stop loss, |
288 | 00:26:28 --> 00:26:32 | and we're short from back here, where's their stop at right there. |
289 | 00:26:38 --> 00:26:44 | So as soon as the market decides if it wants to go up here, I will take one off |
290 | 00:26:44 --> 00:26:49 | rate above this high manually if it allows me to do so I will not move my |
291 | 00:26:49 --> 00:26:54 | stop loss from where it is right now. That's leaving a lot of money on the |
292 | 00:26:54 --> 00:26:59 | table. I got a guy said to comment on the video the other day where I had a |
293 | 00:26:59 --> 00:27:03 | couple $1,000 He came all the back and stopped me out. I wasn't in front of the |
294 | 00:27:03 --> 00:27:07 | screen. But I am in front of screen today because it's not on payroll and I |
295 | 00:27:07 --> 00:27:13 | want to be babysitting the position. But after the fact, it's real easy to ask |
296 | 00:27:13 --> 00:27:16 | questions like you know, why did you leave all the money on the table. But if |
297 | 00:27:16 --> 00:27:20 | this person is a traitor, you didn't take every bit of the profit of every |
298 | 00:27:20 --> 00:27:23 | trade you were in either. There's going to be times where you leave money on the |
299 | 00:27:23 --> 00:27:27 | table. But you're worried about that money. I'm not worried about that money. |
300 | 00:27:28 --> 00:27:32 | That's I mean, that's that money can be taken and plucked off the money tree |
301 | 00:27:32 --> 00:27:35 | that's in here every single day, when I'm going to sit down and read these |
302 | 00:27:35 --> 00:27:39 | charts, I can do that. So that's the reason why I leave money on the table. |
303 | 00:27:39 --> 00:27:43 | Because I'm looking for the larger hauls. I want a bigger harvest. And I |
304 | 00:27:43 --> 00:27:49 | know what to do to get them. But sometimes it's not it's not going to be |
305 | 00:27:49 --> 00:27:54 | that day for that particular trade to pan out in its biggest capacity or |
306 | 00:27:54 --> 00:27:58 | largest magnitude that I'm anticipating in that specific setup, it may not yield |
307 | 00:27:58 --> 00:28:04 | itself to me. So because I don't measure my success on the basis of one |
308 | 00:28:04 --> 00:28:09 | individual transaction on one trade, I'm okay with letting it pick some back from |
309 | 00:28:09 --> 00:28:14 | me. It's an it's a interesting one. Okay, I'm going to let the market take |
310 | 00:28:14 --> 00:28:18 | it back from me, because I'm going to get it back with interest later on that |
311 | 00:28:18 --> 00:28:23 | I don't look at losses as a failure. I look at it as a loan that I'm giving to |
312 | 00:28:23 --> 00:28:27 | the marketplace. Someone made some money off of that money I left on the table. |
313 | 00:28:28 --> 00:28:35 | Okay, that's fine. I'm in the business of interest and I'm going to get that |
314 | 00:28:35 --> 00:28:40 | money back with interest in my future trades. See that's the difference |
315 | 00:28:40 --> 00:28:45 | between me and my mindset and how smart money and longevity traders think you |
316 | 00:28:45 --> 00:28:52 | know we are legacy moneymakers we're not you know, one hit wonders day traders |
317 | 00:28:52 --> 00:28:56 | getting lucky here and there windfall victory traders, where you are counting |
318 | 00:28:56 --> 00:29:01 | every penny, in every penny matters. That's that's not how we think we're not |
319 | 00:29:01 --> 00:29:05 | we're not worried about those types of things. We're sitting back relaxing, |
320 | 00:29:05 --> 00:29:10 | letting the probabilities do the heavy lifting. And just simply following the |
321 | 00:29:10 --> 00:29:15 | model not over leveraging not forcing it. Alright, so here's a little bit of |
322 | 00:29:15 --> 00:29:21 | the inefficiency and between this candle here and here. So I'll be watching how |
323 | 00:29:21 --> 00:29:31 | we trade here the sky like the last line in the sand for me she got bullshit that |
324 | 00:29:31 --> 00:29:37 | green just to have a little contrast. So there's a little inefficiency here. So |
325 | 00:29:37 --> 00:29:45 | in a way, it's kinda like a breaker kinda like a reason for it needs to |
326 | 00:29:45 --> 00:29:49 | start rallying here or it's likely come back down in touch and maybe trade |
327 | 00:29:49 --> 00:29:53 | deeper into that for our fair value got which is in that darker blue shaded area |
328 | 00:29:53 --> 00:30:02 | here. When I'm trading here when I'm at educating, I don't have all this stuff |
329 | 00:30:02 --> 00:30:06 | on my chart, I have this the levels itself, the numbers, and I write them |
330 | 00:30:06 --> 00:30:12 | down on a little notepad. And that's what I work on. Because all of these |
331 | 00:30:12 --> 00:30:17 | boxes become very distracting to me. And, like I said, maintenance, if you |
332 | 00:30:17 --> 00:30:21 | listen to my, like when I was doing Twitter spaces in the ramps and such, |
333 | 00:30:23 --> 00:30:27 | unless I tell you, I'm reading off of the bullet point, list of things, I have |
334 | 00:30:27 --> 00:30:31 | an owner, a script knew the things I want to make sure I cover most of the |
335 | 00:30:31 --> 00:30:36 | time I'm talking 99.999% of time. I'm not, I'm not following the script here. |
336 | 00:30:36 --> 00:30:40 | Obviously, I'm not running off the script, I'm just running off the mouth. |
337 | 00:30:42 --> 00:30:50 | These Twitter spaces, show you how I can very easily distract myself from all |
338 | 00:30:50 --> 00:30:56 | these different rabbit trails and different tangents I can go off of, in |
339 | 00:30:56 --> 00:31:01 | many times, what you think I'm going to cover and talk about, I'll bring in 15 |
340 | 00:31:01 --> 00:31:06 | other different subjects. And for some people, it's very difficult to listen to |
341 | 00:31:06 --> 00:31:16 | me when I'm live and unfiltered. Because I'm, I stray off topic, but I come back. |
342 | 00:31:17 --> 00:31:20 | And it's comfortable for me to talk like that my wife, she doesn't really like to |
343 | 00:31:20 --> 00:31:24 | have long winded conversations with me. Because I tend to bring in other |
344 | 00:31:24 --> 00:31:27 | conversations. She's like, can we talk about this and finishes before we go |
345 | 00:31:27 --> 00:31:31 | into another topic. And my mind doesn't work that way, it's 1000 miles an hour, |
346 | 00:31:31 --> 00:31:37 | if you can't keep up, then stay on the porch. That's just the way it is. Okay, |
347 | 00:31:37 --> 00:31:42 | unfortunately, that's a weakness. In my mind, in my observations as a mentor, |
348 | 00:31:42 --> 00:31:47 | that's my weakness. It's very hard for me to stay on task, about one subject |
349 | 00:31:47 --> 00:31:51 | matter, but I'm bored easily. Because there's lots of other things to talk |
350 | 00:31:51 --> 00:31:54 | about in the price action, there's other things that I could be mentioning, and |
351 | 00:31:54 --> 00:32:00 | having a greater appreciation for in the community. When I'm sharing and |
352 | 00:32:00 --> 00:32:04 | teaching. There's a lot of things I leave out because I can't allow the |
353 | 00:32:04 --> 00:32:07 | teacher to you. But and I don't want to say there's loads of things that get |
354 | 00:32:07 --> 00:32:10 | under your skin. Oh, that's a bunch of tone. So it's marketing, it's this, |
355 | 00:32:10 --> 00:32:14 | whatever, dude, I can literally keep putting out models every single month, |
356 | 00:32:15 --> 00:32:18 | and they'll never be the same thing. And they'll all make money and people will |
357 | 00:32:18 --> 00:32:22 | get funded people will make money in life funded accounts, or their own |
358 | 00:32:22 --> 00:32:26 | actual money. And people will still try to discount and say it's not real, it's |
359 | 00:32:26 --> 00:32:29 | something else made up or it's rehash something, there's always gonna be |
360 | 00:32:29 --> 00:32:31 | somebody that has an opinion about what it is I'm doing what everybody else is |
361 | 00:32:31 --> 00:32:36 | doing. But all of that stuff is irrelevant. Are you making money with |
362 | 00:32:36 --> 00:32:39 | what I'm teaching? That's all it matters? Are you understanding what |
363 | 00:32:39 --> 00:32:43 | price action is about the dude next, because if it isn't helping, you don't |
364 | 00:32:43 --> 00:32:47 | want to buy stuff. If it's complicated, understand that it was already told to |
365 | 00:32:47 --> 00:32:50 | you that it's going to be complicated. It's not an indicator based thing where |
366 | 00:32:50 --> 00:32:54 | you wait for it to be overbought or oversold, and you trust something that |
367 | 00:32:54 --> 00:32:56 | has absolutely no bearing on what price is going to do as a result of that |
368 | 00:32:56 --> 00:33:03 | indicator saying whatever it's saying, there's no bearing at all on overbought, |
369 | 00:33:03 --> 00:33:08 | oversold, crossover moving averages harmonic, none of that stuff's making |
370 | 00:33:08 --> 00:33:13 | price go up or down. And buying and selling pressure is a myth. The depth of |
371 | 00:33:13 --> 00:33:20 | market the DOM, it's not dumb, it's dumb. That in itself means absolutely |
372 | 00:33:20 --> 00:33:23 | nothing to because it can be spoofed spoofed is where orders can be flashing |
373 | 00:33:23 --> 00:33:27 | in there. Like there's a lot of buy orders above a specific price level or |
374 | 00:33:27 --> 00:33:32 | at a particular price level on the on the ladder of a DOM. And they can be |
375 | 00:33:32 --> 00:33:39 | spoofed large institutions, okay, like Goldman Sachs, and Citi, all these kind |
376 | 00:33:39 --> 00:33:46 | of big, big conglomerates for trading, they have been punished and charges put |
377 | 00:33:46 --> 00:33:52 | against them and fined for spoofing and pretending to really try to have orders |
378 | 00:33:52 --> 00:33:59 | there. And that it's a gimmick, okay, your it takes more faith to believe in |
379 | 00:33:59 --> 00:34:02 | that than it is that you just simply look at where the stops should be. |
380 | 00:34:02 --> 00:34:06 | Where's the inefficiencies, they don't hide them from you. They can't hide them |
381 | 00:34:06 --> 00:34:13 | from me. So because they can't hide them from you. That's an advantage. Because |
382 | 00:34:13 --> 00:34:16 | everyone will have a stoploss when the market has been dropping low or |
383 | 00:34:16 --> 00:34:21 | someone's short there or someone's short in a move that's dropping, okay. And we |
384 | 00:34:21 --> 00:34:24 | don't need to know how many people are short who it is what their entity is. |
385 | 00:34:24 --> 00:34:29 | This means that they're short. And if they're going to manage risk, they're |
386 | 00:34:29 --> 00:34:35 | going to place a protective stop in the form of a buy stop above some important |
387 | 00:34:35 --> 00:34:41 | high. Well, prior to this drop down. This high was important. We've seen it |
388 | 00:34:41 --> 00:34:46 | go right back above it again, in this high. There's people that are short here |
389 | 00:34:47 --> 00:34:52 | that their stop loss was never traded to hear. See that? So that's kind of like |
390 | 00:34:52 --> 00:34:57 | when I'm basing the remaining portion of this trade on that. They have unfinished |
391 | 00:34:57 --> 00:35:00 | business above here and if they get really overzealous on the UPS aside, |
392 | 00:35:00 --> 00:35:05 | they can take it up here. And I have enough in the in the tank to allow for |
393 | 00:35:05 --> 00:35:10 | to adjust that. If it can start the run up here, I'll change this five to |
394 | 00:35:10 --> 00:35:14 | something other than five to allow me a runner because I don't want to pyramid |
395 | 00:35:15 --> 00:35:21 | on Non Farm Payroll. Non Farm Payroll is a very challenging market environment |
396 | 00:35:21 --> 00:35:28 | where I don't have the faith in my own ability to be very precise in nonfarm |
397 | 00:35:28 --> 00:35:37 | payroll market structure. Because it's quirky, it's a little bit more wild, |
398 | 00:35:37 --> 00:35:43 | where it is whips around and it seems aimless. And because of that, I can't |
399 | 00:35:43 --> 00:35:49 | trust the UNbuilding in a larger position with sound footing. Meaning |
400 | 00:35:49 --> 00:35:56 | that it's too uncertain for me to build larger positions were another day of the |
401 | 00:35:56 --> 00:36:03 | month, where there isn't this highly manipulation, order flow where it's |
402 | 00:36:03 --> 00:36:09 | literally constantly for the first hour, it's highly manipulated, and things that |
403 | 00:36:09 --> 00:36:12 | I would otherwise trust in market delivering. And I could go in here and |
404 | 00:36:12 --> 00:36:15 | just feel confident that I'm going to do this and do that. I've walked you |
405 | 00:36:15 --> 00:36:18 | through most of it to so far this morning about all of this area in here. |
406 | 00:36:18 --> 00:36:22 | And because it didn't do a certain thing I was looking for, you know, I banked |
407 | 00:36:22 --> 00:36:27 | some more. So out of the 10 contracts that was available to me in the entry |
408 | 00:36:28 --> 00:36:30 | down here. The |
409 | 00:36:32 --> 00:36:36 | the partials that I've taken one, and then three more because it wasn't given |
410 | 00:36:36 --> 00:36:41 | me what I wanted to see. And now look what's happened. Okay, we're in this |
411 | 00:36:41 --> 00:36:47 | last enclosed candle. And we're inside of this very vague gap and I'm watching |
412 | 00:36:47 --> 00:36:54 | does this candle have a body that closes below or outside this shaded blue area |
413 | 00:36:54 --> 00:36:55 | or green area? |
414 | 00:37:01 --> 00:37:07 | Here, here, Piper snore, Piper is one of my puppy boxers, all three of my dogs |
415 | 00:37:07 --> 00:37:12 | are are female, by the way, sometimes I made so many like to comment and refer |
416 | 00:37:12 --> 00:37:16 | to them as some was, sometimes they refer to them as a male puppy or a male |
417 | 00:37:16 --> 00:37:21 | dog, I don't have male dogs. I prefer the females and I don't make them, I |
418 | 00:37:21 --> 00:37:22 | don't make puppies with them. |
419 | 00:37:29 --> 00:37:33 | Alright, so I'd like to see this candle or the very next candle, start to really |
420 | 00:37:33 --> 00:37:38 | gain some momentum on the upside and get out of that green shaded area. The |
421 | 00:37:38 --> 00:37:42 | longer we spend time in this little area, the more likely we are to trade |
422 | 00:37:42 --> 00:37:45 | back down into the top of that fair value gap on the four hour chart, which |
423 | 00:37:45 --> 00:37:46 | is this level were here. |
424 | 00:37:52 --> 00:37:58 | But being in a position like this, where your your trade is funded, meaning that |
425 | 00:37:58 --> 00:38:03 | you've taken something out, anything that can happen right now cannot remove |
426 | 00:38:03 --> 00:38:09 | the profitability of this day. Like it could get down there and hit my stop, it |
427 | 00:38:09 --> 00:38:15 | doesn't matter. Because the profits are already booked. It doesn't matter to my |
428 | 00:38:15 --> 00:38:20 | trade psyche, where it will break me mentally, because it did it. If it comes |
429 | 00:38:20 --> 00:38:23 | back and starts me out. I'm not gonna have a bad weekend, because I lost |
430 | 00:38:23 --> 00:38:29 | money. It can't happen now. It cannot happen that this trade comes back |
431 | 00:38:29 --> 00:38:34 | against me stops me out. And it becomes a negative experience where I can't go |
432 | 00:38:34 --> 00:38:39 | on the weekend sailing into it with a smile, see that that's the strength. |
433 | 00:38:39 --> 00:38:43 | That's the benefit of taking partials. And that's why I laugh in the face of |
434 | 00:38:43 --> 00:38:47 | people that say taking partials is stupid from someone that is anonymous in |
435 | 00:38:47 --> 00:38:51 | terms of their ability to trade or be profitable. And there's lots of them on |
436 | 00:38:51 --> 00:39:00 | Twitter, lots of them, they have large followings for no reason. So I'd like |
437 | 00:39:00 --> 00:39:03 | what we're seeing here, see how the bodies are staying just at the bottom of |
438 | 00:39:03 --> 00:39:08 | that green box. The next candle on this candle we're looking at here it opened |
439 | 00:39:08 --> 00:39:13 | right at the below the shaded area and we're working our way up in here. I want |
440 | 00:39:13 --> 00:39:19 | to see it get really energetic and start to come up out here. I believe that |
441 | 00:39:19 --> 00:39:24 | she's really snoring over there. I believe that you at 930 we're really |
442 | 00:39:24 --> 00:39:29 | going to rip up into this area here. If it doesn't do before, it definitely will |
443 | 00:39:29 --> 00:39:35 | be where I'm thinking that it's going to really reach up into that at 930 and |
444 | 00:39:35 --> 00:39:38 | really punish the people that are thinking it's going to go lower. The |
445 | 00:39:38 --> 00:39:43 | problem is is Do I have it in me to navigate and stay with this trade not |
446 | 00:39:43 --> 00:39:51 | get stopped out. I think I'm safe with the stock where I'm at. It's a bit below |
447 | 00:39:51 --> 00:39:59 | the fair pay gap on the four hour charts high and it's behind all the bodies here |
448 | 00:40:00 --> 00:40:02 | So remember the bulk of the volume is what in the bodies of the candle, the |
449 | 00:40:02 --> 00:40:08 | wick does the damage. And it just seems like, you know, if I get stopped out, |
450 | 00:40:08 --> 00:40:14 | I'm okay, this is what I'm saying. And you really want to have your trait and |
451 | 00:40:14 --> 00:40:18 | let's take this Fibonacci off because it's really cluttering up the chart. And |
452 | 00:40:18 --> 00:40:21 | we've already seen what it was used for |
453 | 00:40:31 --> 00:40:34 | She sounds like a lumberjack of theirs Lauren |
454 | 00:40:44 --> 00:40:49 | some of you foreign folks are going to assume that that's flatulence. Somebody, |
455 | 00:40:49 --> 00:40:53 | some I leave a comment in one of the videos where I've, I didn't mention it |
456 | 00:40:53 --> 00:40:57 | was my puppy snoring. And that's why I do it. Because I'm human. I mean, |
457 | 00:40:57 --> 00:41:02 | obviously, you know, when I eat and consume food, I'm just like, you know, |
458 | 00:41:02 --> 00:41:07 | those things are gonna happen. But I'm not doing that on videos. I would never |
459 | 00:41:07 --> 00:41:12 | do that on video. But yeah, some I've seen comments from folks I'm certain are |
460 | 00:41:12 --> 00:41:20 | foreigners. They hear a sound, and because the sound isn't addressed. And |
461 | 00:41:20 --> 00:41:25 | maybe they're watching my videos through like, subtitles and whatnot, closed |
462 | 00:41:25 --> 00:41:37 | caption. They're thinking that so I'm so unsavory to do something like that on a |
463 | 00:41:37 --> 00:41:43 | video or leave it in there, that would be it'd be atrocious. So that's the |
464 | 00:41:43 --> 00:41:47 | reason why I'm bringing it out. I'm making sure I'm including it that way |
465 | 00:41:47 --> 00:41:51 | for the folks that listen to these videos. They hear me talking in a |
466 | 00:41:51 --> 00:41:54 | language you probably don't understand, but they're watching the subtitles. So |
467 | 00:41:55 --> 00:41:58 | because they hear that sound, that sound is not in a specific language. It's my |
468 | 00:41:58 --> 00:42:03 | puppy snoring. So that's why I'm making sure it's included here in the |
469 | 00:42:03 --> 00:42:03 | discussion. |
470 | 00:42:09 --> 00:42:16 | I've had people when I was in the middle of thought I'd be like, it would sound a |
471 | 00:42:16 --> 00:42:20 | little funny. And they think Did you just belt or burp? And they you know, |
472 | 00:42:20 --> 00:42:25 | they put a time stamp on it. I'm like, how can they think that's about or burn, |
473 | 00:42:25 --> 00:42:29 | it's me just holding on to where I want to go with this. And sometimes I want to |
474 | 00:42:29 --> 00:42:35 | say certain things. But then common sense kicks in says don't go there. So I |
475 | 00:42:35 --> 00:42:39 | had to change the direction and what I'm going to say or deliver a specific |
476 | 00:42:39 --> 00:42:42 | point, especially during live discussions |
477 | 00:42:49 --> 00:42:55 | Alright, so we're coming up on just about 17 minutes till the opening bell |
478 | 00:43:06 --> 00:43:08 | clean up this up, get this off here. |
479 | 00:43:14 --> 00:43:19 | So while watching this, I'm gonna have these inefficiencies outlined from this |
480 | 00:43:19 --> 00:43:28 | candles low, which is her here. This camp was high, that one single pass that |
481 | 00:43:28 --> 00:43:32 | big candle right here. That is the fair value gap, that fair value gap because |
482 | 00:43:32 --> 00:43:39 | it's an up close candle. Makes it a busy by side imbalance, sell side |
483 | 00:43:39 --> 00:43:45 | inefficiency. We have since offered sell side. And I don't like the heaviness |
484 | 00:43:45 --> 00:43:49 | that we're experiencing in here because it's spending way too much time at the |
485 | 00:43:49 --> 00:43:55 | low end of that. I don't like that. It doesn't bode well for the setup. But I'm |
486 | 00:43:55 --> 00:44:00 | going to commit to it for the basis of teaching the difficulties because it's |
487 | 00:44:00 --> 00:44:04 | one thing for me to say I don't like to trade Non Farm Payroll. And for the |
488 | 00:44:04 --> 00:44:09 | people that get out there and they over leverage, and they gamble, any guess and |
489 | 00:44:09 --> 00:44:13 | they might live streaming or they maybe don't live stream. They don't show it to |
490 | 00:44:13 --> 00:44:17 | live account. They don't show it to live data. You know for all those individuals |
491 | 00:44:17 --> 00:44:20 | that say that and they always come after the fact. They always come after the |
492 | 00:44:20 --> 00:44:25 | fact say, you know, I made money on this day and ICT doesn't trade on this day. |
493 | 00:44:25 --> 00:44:28 | He tells you not to trade on Mondays I trade every Monday on that from payroll |
494 | 00:44:28 --> 00:44:34 | week. I trade every single Monday on a Non Farm Payroll week. But I may not |
495 | 00:44:34 --> 00:44:40 | trade a Monday on any other week. I'm comfortable with letting the market have |
496 | 00:44:40 --> 00:44:44 | that. So see we had a close outside that shaded area. So because we had this one |
497 | 00:44:44 --> 00:44:48 | single closed, it's inside this down close candle. So what I'm weighing out |
498 | 00:44:48 --> 00:44:52 | is okay, well, it could still do what I would like to see it happen in move |
499 | 00:44:52 --> 00:44:59 | higher. But the more time we spend drifting lower, the more likely that |
500 | 00:44:59 --> 00:45:04 | they'll want to Take the 930, run, rip that low, then come back up here. That's |
501 | 00:45:04 --> 00:45:08 | the that's the problem I'm facing with this trade right now. And that's what's |
502 | 00:45:08 --> 00:45:11 | in my mind, that's what I'm concerned about, but not to the degree where it's |
503 | 00:45:11 --> 00:45:14 | freaking me out or making me upset. And if it comes down and does that very |
504 | 00:45:14 --> 00:45:19 | thing, I don't care. That's the wonderful thing about how taking |
505 | 00:45:19 --> 00:45:23 | partials, knowing where and why you should take that partial, it frees your |
506 | 00:45:23 --> 00:45:32 | mind up about needing to be what, right. That is power, that strength, partials |
507 | 00:45:32 --> 00:45:36 | remove the necessity for you as the trader, whether you're advanced and |
508 | 00:45:36 --> 00:45:40 | you've been dealing with for a long time, or you're new and are fledgling |
509 | 00:45:40 --> 00:45:45 | student of price action, it removes that very, very difficult task of managing |
510 | 00:45:45 --> 00:45:51 | the impulse to be correct to be right. Because I'm going to be honest with you, |
511 | 00:45:51 --> 00:45:53 | I've said this many times before, and I learned this from Larry Williams that |
512 | 00:45:53 --> 00:46:04 | coined it from many times, watching his four VHS tape series. You're never |
513 | 00:46:04 --> 00:46:12 | right. In trading. You're never right. You're never ever, ever, ever, ever, |
514 | 00:46:12 --> 00:46:18 | ever, right? You're either profitable or unprofitable. Now, how's that possible? |
515 | 00:46:19 --> 00:46:23 | We surely you're right, if you make money? I guess so. But really are you? |
516 | 00:46:23 --> 00:46:28 | Did you really buy as much as you really wanted to after the trade close, because |
517 | 00:46:28 --> 00:46:32 | you're always going to say, if I just would have bought more shares, if I just |
518 | 00:46:32 --> 00:46:37 | would have bought more contracts, if I would have just bought more lots. If I |
519 | 00:46:37 --> 00:46:41 | just want to maximize the contract, they allow me to trade for my combine or my |
520 | 00:46:41 --> 00:46:47 | funded account. If I just want to use the max leverage, I could have made this |
521 | 00:46:47 --> 00:46:50 | much. So what are you saying? You weren't right. Even though you made |
522 | 00:46:50 --> 00:46:55 | money? You're saying you weren't right? Because right is defined by you by doing |
523 | 00:46:55 --> 00:47:01 | the most. And I'm telling you, that's a lie. That's toxic thinking. And that's |
524 | 00:47:01 --> 00:47:06 | why that you're never going to be right. So you're objective in trying to be |
525 | 00:47:06 --> 00:47:11 | right in your trades. That's a foolish errand and you can't do that it's |
526 | 00:47:11 --> 00:47:16 | impossible for you to be right. Because even if you share your profitable trade |
527 | 00:47:16 --> 00:47:20 | someone and I do it, people come into the comment section. And they'll say, |
528 | 00:47:20 --> 00:47:24 | But why didn't you take profits here mighty profits there? That's your way of |
529 | 00:47:24 --> 00:47:27 | doing it. But you're looking at it after it's happened? Why don't you show me |
530 | 00:47:27 --> 00:47:31 | your trade where you did that? They're not doing that. So it's pointless to |
531 | 00:47:31 --> 00:47:34 | have conversations about why didn't I do this? And why didn't because I didn't |
532 | 00:47:34 --> 00:47:39 | trade it that way. Okay, when I'm doing a trade, and I'm explaining it to you, |
533 | 00:47:39 --> 00:47:43 | and I'm showing you why I'm doing certain things. That's how I'm managing |
534 | 00:47:43 --> 00:47:48 | that trade, based on my understanding my belief in how the market may behave, or |
535 | 00:47:48 --> 00:47:54 | it shouldn't behave. I'm being responsible, I'm owning my own decision. |
536 | 00:47:54 --> 00:47:58 | I'm not lending it out to someone else to critique it, and then learn from |
537 | 00:47:58 --> 00:48:02 | their insight. I'm not here to learn from anybody. I already know what I'm |
538 | 00:48:02 --> 00:48:10 | doing. And I'm comfortable with being not perfect. My results, you see them, |
539 | 00:48:10 --> 00:48:14 | you see the results of my students, you see the growth in our community, in the |
540 | 00:48:14 --> 00:48:18 | phenomenon that is Smart Money concepts, that it's global. Now it's viral, it's |
541 | 00:48:18 --> 00:48:23 | everywhere, and really upsets a lot of people because it casts a very large |
542 | 00:48:23 --> 00:48:28 | shadow, that they can't step outside up. Because we have students, you have a |
543 | 00:48:28 --> 00:48:32 | mentor that can do this, that can explain it before it happens, do it in |
544 | 00:48:32 --> 00:48:37 | great detail. And my students are able to learn that same skill set. And |
545 | 00:48:39 --> 00:48:43 | unfortunately, it's created a very large body of witnesses that have testimonies |
546 | 00:48:43 --> 00:48:47 | that are undeniable that it works, it works in their hands, they're trading |
547 | 00:48:47 --> 00:48:51 | markets that I don't touch I won't even comment on and they're making money |
548 | 00:48:51 --> 00:48:56 | using what they learned here on this YouTube channel. And that is inspiring. |
549 | 00:48:56 --> 00:48:59 | It should be inspiring, it should not be a reason for you to go out and start |
550 | 00:48:59 --> 00:49:05 | doing videos. Here's why ICT some concepts or Smart Money, concepts don't |
551 | 00:49:05 --> 00:49:09 | work. And then not even teach it the way it's been taught or even referred to it |
552 | 00:49:09 --> 00:49:13 | the way it's been taught. You can make videos saying that you failed using it |
553 | 00:49:13 --> 00:49:16 | because you haven't spent enough time learning how to do it properly. That's |
554 | 00:49:16 --> 00:49:19 | fine if you need clicks, okay, a lot of people put my name out there in their |
555 | 00:49:19 --> 00:49:23 | YouTube videos just to get clicks. I get it things times are hard and groceries |
556 | 00:49:23 --> 00:49:27 | are more expensive things are expensive. And you know my name sells right now. |
557 | 00:49:28 --> 00:49:32 | But in trading, if you're in this industry to learn how to make money, |
558 | 00:49:32 --> 00:49:36 | people don't have any time for all that nonsense. They're here to learn how to |
559 | 00:49:36 --> 00:49:40 | trade. And if someone's not learning how to trade for me, they're not going to |
560 | 00:49:40 --> 00:49:42 | spend time here. They're going to go on to somebody else that's going to be able |
561 | 00:49:43 --> 00:49:47 | to help them and I'm telling you to do that very thing. This like I said |
562 | 00:49:47 --> 00:49:52 | yesterday, in the YouTube video, I mentioned that if I'm not helping you |
563 | 00:49:52 --> 00:49:56 | don't spend any time here. If I'm a distraction from something that you've |
564 | 00:49:56 --> 00:50:00 | maybe you've already profitable, you have a model that works for you. You In, |
565 | 00:50:00 --> 00:50:05 | I'm causing a great deal of confusion for you. And now you're having some |
566 | 00:50:06 --> 00:50:14 | struggles. Don't listen to me. How hard is that? It's very easy. I don't have a |
567 | 00:50:14 --> 00:50:19 | fragile ego, like I don't have a dependency on you loving me. But for the |
568 | 00:50:19 --> 00:50:22 | folks that want to learn how to do this, it's been made available to you for |
569 | 00:50:22 --> 00:50:27 | free, like I do spend time in and you don't have to come to this video, you |
570 | 00:50:27 --> 00:50:32 | don't have to come to this YouTube channel, you can literally study what's |
571 | 00:50:32 --> 00:50:36 | already been shown to you, the last few years, you never need to come back to |
572 | 00:50:36 --> 00:50:41 | these videos. Because I've already taught it. It's there, it's already in |
573 | 00:50:41 --> 00:50:44 | there, you've experienced it already. What's missing is that you haven't spent |
574 | 00:50:44 --> 00:50:49 | time doing it back testing it, studying it. And going forward tests where you're |
575 | 00:50:49 --> 00:50:53 | watching tape reading where you're not doing a trade. Okay? And again, this |
576 | 00:50:53 --> 00:50:56 | sort of people all you know, show me your tape reading, okay, show me your |
577 | 00:50:56 --> 00:51:00 | level two data at level two data is a gimmick, it's a bunch of bullshit. Okay, |
578 | 00:51:00 --> 00:51:04 | let's be honest, it's bullshit. And it's the same thing as the depth of market |
579 | 00:51:04 --> 00:51:10 | data, the Damn, it's all spoofed. You cannot spoof this candle being an |
580 | 00:51:10 --> 00:51:14 | inefficiency. You cannot spoof this inefficiency down here in the four hour |
581 | 00:51:14 --> 00:51:18 | range that I highlighted. You can't spoof the fact that that high rate there |
582 | 00:51:18 --> 00:51:21 | had an price run move away from it. So there's going to be liquidity resting |
583 | 00:51:21 --> 00:51:25 | mode that you need book map software program gimmick application to tell you |
584 | 00:51:25 --> 00:51:29 | there's a stoploss out there or orders above that you need that I don't need |
585 | 00:51:29 --> 00:51:34 | that. I don't need that. But in the beginning, it makes sense for you to be |
586 | 00:51:34 --> 00:51:38 | able to see it visually with these crutches, these little aids, these these |
587 | 00:51:38 --> 00:51:43 | helpers, but eventually, you're going to outgrow them. And you're not going to |
588 | 00:51:43 --> 00:51:47 | have anything on your chart. All these things are on the chart. So that way, |
589 | 00:51:47 --> 00:51:53 | you can see what I'm weighing in terms of concern, importance, what salient to |
590 | 00:51:53 --> 00:52:00 | me in this price action, where it is my focus, lie inside of that what we're |
591 | 00:52:00 --> 00:52:08 | having right now is price given to us. I do not have anything on my charts. When |
592 | 00:52:08 --> 00:52:15 | I'm trading and I'm not trying to teach it, my charts look like this. That's it. |
593 | 00:52:17 --> 00:52:22 | That's it, it's naked to me, on a notepad, I have the same levels that is |
594 | 00:52:22 --> 00:52:26 | being indicated here. The high of The Four Hour, the low the four hour |
595 | 00:52:26 --> 00:52:31 | ferrite, you got the high in the low in the midpoint of that inefficiency on the |
596 | 00:52:31 --> 00:52:36 | lower timeframe we've literally did in front of you. I have these two levels. |
597 | 00:52:36 --> 00:52:40 | Here. In the midpoint level, I'm written down on a notepad and what I'm |
598 | 00:52:40 --> 00:52:43 | consciously doing, because I'm not trying to talk to anybody when I'm |
599 | 00:52:43 --> 00:52:49 | trading. I'm looking at where price is every few minutes, every individual |
600 | 00:52:49 --> 00:52:53 | Minute, I'm looking at other things in relationship to that. And those |
601 | 00:52:53 --> 00:52:58 | measurements of how much time we're spending. How does it behave? Is it |
602 | 00:52:58 --> 00:53:02 | respecting these levels, with the idea that I think we're going to go above |
603 | 00:53:02 --> 00:53:09 | this high, this high end up in here, post 930. So when the market opens in |
604 | 00:53:09 --> 00:53:13 | the New York session, opening bell rings and on CNBC, they're all clapping, like |
605 | 00:53:13 --> 00:53:14 | they did something amazing. |
606 | 00:53:15 --> 00:53:20 | And when that happens, that rush have liquidity, that order flow that comes |
607 | 00:53:20 --> 00:53:24 | rushing in the marketplace, I believe that they're going to use all those |
608 | 00:53:24 --> 00:53:29 | orders coming in. That is not buying and selling pressure. Because when that |
609 | 00:53:29 --> 00:53:34 | liquidity is coming into the marketplace, when your stop loss gets |
610 | 00:53:34 --> 00:53:40 | hit, that's the puppies rolling around in their kennel roll momentarily. When |
611 | 00:53:40 --> 00:53:45 | that order flow comes in that rush and it hits a stop loss, when that stop loss |
612 | 00:53:45 --> 00:53:51 | gets hit. If it's a sell stop, it is flooding the market with sell orders at |
613 | 00:53:51 --> 00:53:58 | the market. whatever price you can give me and what the algorithm does, it uses |
614 | 00:53:58 --> 00:54:03 | that constant rush of new orders coming in the marketplace to run up and reprice |
615 | 00:54:03 --> 00:54:09 | to another pocket of liquidity here. By stops by stops by stops. Remember |
616 | 00:54:11 --> 00:54:18 | relative equal highs here, and then over here. We have that high back there. So |
617 | 00:54:18 --> 00:54:24 | they're gonna target that when opening bell rings at 930. That's my belief. If |
618 | 00:54:24 --> 00:54:29 | I'm wrong, guess what? I mean money. Did you make money today? If you watch this |
619 | 00:54:29 --> 00:54:33 | over the weekend, did you make money on Friday? See, I'm going to sweet position |
620 | 00:54:33 --> 00:54:39 | right now. I don't need my trade to be right. I don't need to be right. I'm |
621 | 00:54:39 --> 00:54:42 | right as rain as far as I'm concerned. It is straight up profitable for me |
622 | 00:54:42 --> 00:54:46 | right now where I'm at and I don't need to be right and I don't have to be |
623 | 00:54:46 --> 00:54:51 | afraid of being wrong. If this doesn't pan out and started me I'm uploading it |
624 | 00:54:51 --> 00:54:58 | anyway. I don't I don't know how to make it any plainer than that. Like I have |
625 | 00:54:58 --> 00:55:04 | zero emotion Zero emotion. If this fails and doesn't pan out like I want, it |
626 | 00:55:04 --> 00:55:08 | doesn't mean that things that I know and trust won't work for me next Monday, |
627 | 00:55:08 --> 00:55:11 | next Tuesday, next Wednesday, next Thursday, next Friday, it doesn't mean |
628 | 00:55:11 --> 00:55:17 | that it won't work for me next May in 2024, it won't pan out for me in months |
629 | 00:55:17 --> 00:55:21 | and years ahead. It's not going to change that. But see, when you're new, |
630 | 00:55:22 --> 00:55:26 | you tend to think that way, if this trade doesn't pan out, I'm skipping over |
631 | 00:55:26 --> 00:55:32 | SMC Smart Money, concepts, ICC stuff, it doesn't work. I'm going to skip over |
632 | 00:55:32 --> 00:55:37 | this, because I can't make it work. So therefore, it doesn't work at all. And |
633 | 00:55:37 --> 00:55:41 | you'll deny the ample evidence that it does, and people are making real money |
634 | 00:55:41 --> 00:55:49 | with it undeniable evidence. So who really has a firm grasp on their |
635 | 00:55:49 --> 00:55:56 | emotions here? I know I have. I'm bipolar. Yeah. But when it comes to |
636 | 00:55:56 --> 00:56:00 | this, I'm very focused, I know exactly what I'm doing. But I can't be focused |
637 | 00:56:00 --> 00:56:05 | if I'm in an environment where people can actively ask me questions while I'm |
638 | 00:56:05 --> 00:56:12 | doing it. Because what does that do? It opens up this beautiful distraction, |
639 | 00:56:12 --> 00:56:17 | where because of my experience, and my character, I can run rampant, and go |
640 | 00:56:17 --> 00:56:24 | through all these different tangents. And because of my importance of making |
641 | 00:56:24 --> 00:56:28 | sure that you understand anything I'm referring to I go overboard and trying |
642 | 00:56:28 --> 00:56:36 | to make sure you understand to the, to a degree, that is just a testament that my |
643 | 00:56:36 --> 00:56:42 | concern is, I want you to really know what I mean. Not just, yeah. The market |
644 | 00:56:42 --> 00:56:48 | should go up to those stops up there at 4600. Okay, why? Why do you think that? |
645 | 00:56:49 --> 00:56:52 | I'm glad you asked. Let me go through all of this. In New York, some of you |
646 | 00:56:52 --> 00:56:56 | don't want to hear that. Because you just want to know, tell me how I can |
647 | 00:56:56 --> 00:57:01 | easily just get to it's going to run the 45 98.75 high. Because if I can do that, |
648 | 00:57:02 --> 00:57:06 | that's the bias. And I can make money wrong. Absolutely wrong. But you don't |
649 | 00:57:06 --> 00:57:10 | want to hear that lesson. You don't hear that, that that truth from me. You don't |
650 | 00:57:10 --> 00:57:13 | want to hear it, you reject it. Because it doesn't fit your underlying narrative |
651 | 00:57:13 --> 00:57:18 | to what you believe how you should learn. You're coming to me with no |
652 | 00:57:18 --> 00:57:21 | understanding about what it is I'm teaching. And you're going to tell me, |
653 | 00:57:21 --> 00:57:25 | and many of you and many my paid students, which I don't have a paid |
654 | 00:57:25 --> 00:57:29 | mentorship anymore, I will not be opening one in the future. If my books |
655 | 00:57:29 --> 00:57:32 | sell like hotcakes, and it gets real popular because of the books. I'm not |
656 | 00:57:32 --> 00:57:36 | going to do a mentorship where I'm charging people money for lessons like |
657 | 00:57:36 --> 00:57:42 | that, again, I'm not doing that. Like I'm not trying to do anything except for |
658 | 00:57:42 --> 00:57:48 | help you. That's it. That's all I'm trying to do. And many, many times |
659 | 00:57:48 --> 00:57:54 | you're you're fighting me. No, I don't want your I don't want your free help. I |
660 | 00:57:54 --> 00:57:58 | know how should be taught, I know how I should learn how to do this, when you |
661 | 00:57:58 --> 00:58:01 | don't even know what it is you're trying to learn to how can you tell me as a |
662 | 00:58:01 --> 00:58:06 | teacher, this is how you should teach me know, a real student is going to say, |
663 | 00:58:06 --> 00:58:11 | I'm ready to be taught. What is it you have for me to learn today. And that let |
664 | 00:58:11 --> 00:58:16 | experience dictate the pace and direction and where you go with it. But |
665 | 00:58:16 --> 00:58:21 | in today's society, it doesn't that doesn't fit. It doesn't fit the mold. It |
666 | 00:58:21 --> 00:58:25 | doesn't give the the comfort that's necessary for that. Give it to me right |
667 | 00:58:25 --> 00:58:30 | now. And it's already too late. Crowd that that mindset of impatience |
668 | 00:58:30 --> 00:58:35 | entitlement. It's rampant right now. And that's why I'm off of social media like |
669 | 00:58:35 --> 00:58:38 | Twitter and stuff. You know, it's toxic. It's really toxic, because there's |
670 | 00:58:38 --> 00:58:45 | people there that pretend to be smart. And they're idiots. bowls, and I don't |
671 | 00:58:45 --> 00:58:48 | have time for that every year, I can be in my little bubble, I can talk if you |
672 | 00:58:48 --> 00:58:50 | choose to come here and you came, you came here and by your own choice, I |
673 | 00:58:50 --> 00:58:54 | didn't drag you over here, right. And you're watching these videos because you |
674 | 00:58:54 --> 00:58:57 | want to listen to it. You want to learn the word, you want to take something |
675 | 00:58:57 --> 00:59:03 | from it and you run in to your little circle of circle jerks and make fun of |
676 | 00:59:03 --> 00:59:06 | something that you still don't understand or even come close to |
677 | 00:59:06 --> 00:59:13 | replicating. So again, I will accommodate all manner of audience you |
678 | 00:59:13 --> 00:59:18 | can come here to learn you can come here you feel like you're smart you know and |
679 | 00:59:18 --> 00:59:22 | look at something and they'll go on social media and lie and said the same |
680 | 00:59:22 --> 00:59:25 | tree that I did. Or you did something opposite when I was trying to do |
681 | 00:59:25 --> 00:59:29 | something and said you made money but you're not really showing anything. I |
682 | 00:59:29 --> 00:59:32 | don't have time for that. You shouldn't have any time for that. Okay, if you're |
683 | 00:59:32 --> 00:59:35 | going to take the time to even post anything on social media at all. Here we |
684 | 00:59:35 --> 00:59:42 | are an opening bell. Missy rip up into this, this in up here. So I'm gonna get |
685 | 00:59:42 --> 00:59:55 | my orders ready because if it does me take this off and I want to just do |
686 | 00:59:56 --> 01:00:03 | three above there and I want to do one and manually if at all, allow me if we |
687 | 01:00:03 --> 01:00:07 | get above here, so these are relatively equal lows. So I'm looking at that |
688 | 01:00:07 --> 01:00:11 | suddenly putting up here visually. So I'm watching if price goes up into that |
689 | 01:00:11 --> 01:00:13 | level here and goes above it, I'm going to close one. |
690 | 01:00:19 --> 01:00:29 | Piper, hey, I'm sorry, let's go. Alright, so far, so good, I want to see |
691 | 01:00:29 --> 01:00:37 | it really accelerate, reaching into that area here. So if I close one above this |
692 | 01:00:37 --> 01:00:41 | area hereby site is, then if it gets up to here and takes that limit order |
693 | 01:00:41 --> 01:00:46 | there, that will give me two remaining contracts that I'll treat as a runner. |
694 | 01:00:46 --> 01:00:51 | And if it can get up here, I'm going to place my stop loss rate at the high of |
695 | 01:00:51 --> 01:00:55 | the, for our fair Vega, so it's not gonna be much of a change. But I do want |
696 | 01:00:55 --> 01:00:59 | to have a little bit more protected on the balance of the two contracts, what's |
697 | 01:00:59 --> 01:01:01 | more, they won't make a difference in the grand scheme of things. |
698 | 01:01:12 --> 01:01:17 | Now, I want you to think about the mindset of who was hopeful and being |
699 | 01:01:17 --> 01:01:23 | profitable this morning, they set the trap that it was going lower than it |
700 | 01:01:23 --> 01:01:27 | really dropped down here. The mindset is, okay, the markets weak, it's |
701 | 01:01:27 --> 01:01:31 | probably gonna keep going lower. And I don't want to subscribe to that view, I |
702 | 01:01:31 --> 01:01:39 | want to see where they left traders feeling safe. These stops here, that |
703 | 01:01:39 --> 01:01:44 | have been trailed from here to here. For those investors that were short from up |
704 | 01:01:44 --> 01:01:47 | in here, that have their stop loss here, or felt like they had to place their |
705 | 01:01:47 --> 01:01:57 | stop above that board, I back here. Back here, okay. So that's what I'm |
706 | 01:01:57 --> 01:02:03 | attacking, I'm targeting that. And I'm running against the logic of a retail |
707 | 01:02:03 --> 01:02:08 | trader that is, hopefully, you know, wanting to see lower prices. And they're |
708 | 01:02:08 --> 01:02:14 | trying to be responsible with their account and using stock orders, which in |
709 | 01:02:14 --> 01:02:20 | this case, is going to be their undoing. If I'm correct in my trade, and it pans |
710 | 01:02:20 --> 01:02:24 | out like I want to, but I don't need it to That's the wonderful thing. Like |
711 | 01:02:24 --> 01:02:29 | that's a wonderful place to be in your trading where you don't need it to do |
712 | 01:02:29 --> 01:02:33 | this. But if it does, wow, what a feeling because it profits, and it's an |
713 | 01:02:33 --> 01:02:37 | encouragement to you. But you don't have any of the negative components that come |
714 | 01:02:37 --> 01:02:42 | along with, I needed to be right. Because to be right means in your mind, |
715 | 01:02:43 --> 01:02:47 | you have to be right to be profitable, I can be profitable and not right. Think |
716 | 01:02:47 --> 01:02:53 | about that. How's that for logic. And that's what really, I believe that |
717 | 01:02:54 --> 01:02:58 | traders should focus there. And professional trader traders. That's what |
718 | 01:02:58 --> 01:03:01 | that's how they operate. They operate in probabilities that allows them to be |
719 | 01:03:01 --> 01:03:05 | profitable, and they leave their ego at the door. They don't care about being |
720 | 01:03:05 --> 01:03:08 | right. They don't care about having the better feel than the other guy. They |
721 | 01:03:08 --> 01:03:13 | don't care about. Anything except for did they make their ends meet? Are they |
722 | 01:03:13 --> 01:03:16 | making more money? Did they protect what they have or be preserving capital, |
723 | 01:03:16 --> 01:03:20 | which is number one rule. Number one we're winning the game is to preserve |
724 | 01:03:20 --> 01:03:24 | capital. And that was the whole premise of how I traded so far this morning, is |
725 | 01:03:24 --> 01:03:28 | I allowed the market to pay me there's no way that this trade can come back |
726 | 01:03:28 --> 01:03:31 | against me and I can lose money on it. There's not there's not it's not going |
727 | 01:03:31 --> 01:03:37 | to happen. I shouldn't say that there is a way for it to happen. If it were to be |
728 | 01:03:37 --> 01:03:40 | here, right here at this moment and they drop a nuclear bomb somewhere and in the |
729 | 01:03:40 --> 01:03:44 | market is gaps all the way down 100 points, then that would be a losing day. |
730 | 01:03:45 --> 01:03:49 | But that's the inherent risks that you are associated with trading. When you |
731 | 01:03:49 --> 01:03:52 | sign up to your account, when you put real money into a brokerage account. |
732 | 01:03:53 --> 01:03:56 | You're basically saying as long as there's liquidity, we'll we'll try to |
733 | 01:03:56 --> 01:03:59 | get out. But there's no guarantee. And there's no guarantee you're going to get |
734 | 01:03:59 --> 01:04:04 | the price that you are hoping for, you might get a price that slips you |
735 | 01:04:04 --> 01:04:10 | horribly. Barring that event, there's no way that this can turn into a negative |
736 | 01:04:10 --> 01:04:15 | day for me. And that is a rare, very reassuring and comforting feeling. As a |
737 | 01:04:15 --> 01:04:20 | trader, it frees you up to just sit back and trust what your model should be |
738 | 01:04:20 --> 01:04:24 | doing. And if it doesn't pan out, it's not going to cause you to squirm. |
739 | 01:04:24 --> 01:04:28 | Whereas if you've taken nothing out of the trade, if you take nothing out of |
740 | 01:04:28 --> 01:04:32 | the trade you've taken no partial. You're hoping and praying please start |
741 | 01:04:32 --> 01:04:37 | moving in my favor. Please start doing the touch that right there. Now I want |
742 | 01:04:37 --> 01:04:40 | to see it, do a little bit of that and then repeat. That's what I want. I don't |
743 | 01:04:40 --> 01:04:49 | want to see it close below the midpoint of that fair value gotten here. So it's |
744 | 01:04:49 --> 01:04:53 | really important that you you guard your mind and you learn things that help you |
745 | 01:04:54 --> 01:04:58 | understand how you behave and how you think about the market while you're in a |
746 | 01:04:58 --> 01:05:03 | trade. It's Many times, it's the very things that you are ignoring about |
747 | 01:05:03 --> 01:05:07 | yourself, that you keep repeating, that are going to be toxic to your |
748 | 01:05:07 --> 01:05:12 | development. There are hindrances to you. And you don't realize it. You think |
749 | 01:05:12 --> 01:05:15 | by pretending that it's not there or blocking it out. And in lying to |
750 | 01:05:15 --> 01:05:19 | yourself, Well, I was right about this. I'm right about that. But you're not |
751 | 01:05:19 --> 01:05:22 | addressing or at least identifying the things that are holding you back that |
752 | 01:05:22 --> 01:05:26 | are problematic. The toxic thinking the what if thinking, what if it turns |
753 | 01:05:26 --> 01:05:30 | around, I lose on this trade? Okay, that's the same thing as what happens if |
754 | 01:05:30 --> 01:05:34 | you start to drive to work tomorrow. I shouldn't say tomorrow is Saturday or |
755 | 01:05:34 --> 01:05:38 | something you work on Saturday, right? The next day, you go to work, you get in |
756 | 01:05:38 --> 01:05:41 | your car, you get in your car, you start the car, and you think, oh, what happens |
757 | 01:05:41 --> 01:05:44 | if I get a flat tire? Well, what are you going to do with it, you're just going |
758 | 01:05:44 --> 01:05:47 | to leave the car on the side of the road and abandon it because he's got a flat |
759 | 01:05:47 --> 01:05:50 | tire, now you're going to take care of it, you're going to address it, you're |
760 | 01:05:50 --> 01:05:53 | going to lose some time, you're going to get late to work, you're going to lose |
761 | 01:05:53 --> 01:05:56 | some wages, you're going to spend money that you don't enjoy spending, it's a |
762 | 01:05:56 --> 01:06:00 | cost. It's a hindrance, but life still gonna go on, you're gonna still trust |
763 | 01:06:00 --> 01:06:04 | the motto of getting up starting your car driving to work going there and |
764 | 01:06:04 --> 01:06:08 | exchanging your time for money. So that way you can meet your bills, right? So |
765 | 01:06:08 --> 01:06:12 | trading needs to be the same way. You need to be able to say, okay, my trade |
766 | 01:06:12 --> 01:06:16 | that I'm in right now, if it doesn't pan out, it doesn't change my model, I'm |
767 | 01:06:16 --> 01:06:19 | still going to do these things. I'm going to manage risk the same way. I'm |
768 | 01:06:19 --> 01:06:24 | not going to over leverage. Do you everyday go to work speeding 120 mile an |
769 | 01:06:24 --> 01:06:30 | hour? No. Now, you might do it once in a while when you're really really late. |
770 | 01:06:30 --> 01:06:35 | But we're spirit a small period of time. But that's it's exaggerated risk. What |
771 | 01:06:35 --> 01:06:39 | is it risking it's risking your life, your property, other people's property |
772 | 01:06:39 --> 01:06:43 | and their health and their life. And it's risking you what a ticket, |
773 | 01:06:44 --> 01:06:49 | potentially jail time because you're speeding excessively. And all of that is |
774 | 01:06:49 --> 01:06:52 | excessive risk. So the same thing in your training, you don't go in there, |
775 | 01:06:52 --> 01:06:56 | just because top staff or another company out there says hey, I'm going to |
776 | 01:06:56 --> 01:07:02 | allow you to trade 15 contracts in your combine, it doesn't mean do it. Just |
777 | 01:07:02 --> 01:07:06 | because your odometer says you can do 100 miles an hour doesn't mean that |
778 | 01:07:06 --> 01:07:09 | you're on a road that you should be doing it on. There's risks to doing |
779 | 01:07:09 --> 01:07:15 | that. So being able to manage your expectations, manage yourself, manage |
780 | 01:07:15 --> 01:07:21 | how you behave. I'm looking at this candlestick right here, inside of that |
781 | 01:07:21 --> 01:07:32 | fear Vega right there. Like to see it, respect that and start to sending it |
782 | 01:07:32 --> 01:07:38 | higher. Spending a lot of time in this area here. I'm not. I'm not overzealous |
783 | 01:07:38 --> 01:07:43 | about why it's spending so much time that consolidation |
784 | 01:07:48 --> 01:07:51 | lost my train thought about what I was saying. But main thing is, is you just |
785 | 01:07:51 --> 01:07:58 | want to be able to remove the necessity about being right. Okay, using the same |
786 | 01:07:58 --> 01:08:05 | analogy of driving to work. What happens if you get in your car. And before you |
787 | 01:08:05 --> 01:08:09 | start the car off and you think yourself what happens if my battery died? Well, |
788 | 01:08:09 --> 01:08:12 | you're gonna get a hotshot, you're gonna get someone to give you a jump, or |
789 | 01:08:12 --> 01:08:16 | you're gonna have to go some way to get to a store to buy a battery to replace |
790 | 01:08:16 --> 01:08:20 | it, and then go back to doing what you're doing. It's an exchange for your |
791 | 01:08:20 --> 01:08:26 | time. It's a nuisance, it's not fun. It's not pleasurable, it's an expense |
792 | 01:08:26 --> 01:08:29 | that you would rather not be spending. But that's how trading is sometimes too. |
793 | 01:08:30 --> 01:08:34 | But when you are a new trader, you're thinking, I gotta find a way to avoid |
794 | 01:08:34 --> 01:08:39 | losing. What are you really saying about yourself, you have a character flaw that |
795 | 01:08:39 --> 01:08:44 | you can't accept imperfection. When professional traders embrace |
796 | 01:08:44 --> 01:08:50 | imperfection. We embrace it, we know that we can't be perfect. So therefore |
797 | 01:08:50 --> 01:08:55 | Our strength is our acceptance of the uncertainty. This hard right edge over |
798 | 01:08:55 --> 01:09:00 | here, where no one knows what the next candle is going to do. I'm comfortable |
799 | 01:09:00 --> 01:09:05 | in that area. I'm real comfortable with it. As a new trader, it's scary. It's |
800 | 01:09:05 --> 01:09:09 | uncharted territory. And there's mythological beasts and monsters and sea |
801 | 01:09:09 --> 01:09:14 | creatures out there is going to take you under and drown you devalue. I was there |
802 | 01:09:14 --> 01:09:18 | before I know what that feels like. But I'm also you that same person that says, |
803 | 01:09:19 --> 01:09:25 | yeah, if I get out there, and I go, and deep sea dive in shark infested waters, |
804 | 01:09:25 --> 01:09:34 | I run the risk of getting bitten, yes. But if I follow a model, and I stay in a |
805 | 01:09:34 --> 01:09:40 | close proximity to the boat, I'm in a cage and that bleeding and that putting |
806 | 01:09:40 --> 01:09:46 | chum in the water, those chances are far less likely. And I could still encounter |
807 | 01:09:46 --> 01:09:51 | these beautiful creatures that God's created. So there's a measure of |
808 | 01:09:51 --> 01:09:56 | managing the risks. Okay. So that's what trading should be about. And it's it's |
809 | 01:09:56 --> 01:10:02 | fun when you are able to control the risk keep it manageable. And then by |
810 | 01:10:02 --> 01:10:09 | doing that, that association of managing risk appropriately, allows you to enjoy |
811 | 01:10:09 --> 01:10:14 | the experience of trading. It's fun, where it's not a terribly a frightening |
812 | 01:10:14 --> 01:10:20 | experience for a new trader. an inexperienced trader trading is very, |
813 | 01:10:20 --> 01:10:24 | very scary. Because of what you're thinking, you have all this toxic What |
814 | 01:10:24 --> 01:10:30 | if this doesn't work? What if I do this wrong? What if? What if? What if? What |
815 | 01:10:30 --> 01:10:35 | if is a waste of time? Because majority of what you're dealing with the what if |
816 | 01:10:35 --> 01:10:40 | scenario is negative? It's rooted in negativity? What if this doesn't work |
817 | 01:10:40 --> 01:10:44 | out for me? What if I don't make any money? What if I wasted all this time |
818 | 01:10:44 --> 01:10:47 | watching these videos? What if I've wasted time believing something that |
819 | 01:10:47 --> 01:10:52 | isn't really happening? What if it's all a scam? What if all these people were |
820 | 01:10:52 --> 01:10:56 | paid actors and they don't really make money? That's all that one too. It's, |
821 | 01:10:56 --> 01:11:01 | it's funny, right? It's ridiculous. But what happens if you just really put the |
822 | 01:11:01 --> 01:11:06 | effort forward? And you just simply made your best attempt to do this and you |
823 | 01:11:06 --> 01:11:10 | fell in love with it? And it started working for you? What if it happens like |
824 | 01:11:10 --> 01:11:15 | that? Think about all the time you wasted not doing it. Think about that. |
825 | 01:11:16 --> 01:11:19 | What about all those opportunities where you could have been doing this stuff |
826 | 01:11:19 --> 01:11:24 | sooner? That's what I try to instill in all of my students minds, I want them to |
827 | 01:11:24 --> 01:11:29 | think about the opportunities of how this may impact your life positively. |
828 | 01:11:30 --> 01:11:33 | I'm not promising you're gonna get rich folks, I'm not I'm not saying that at |
829 | 01:11:33 --> 01:11:37 | all. But I am saying that you will know how to read price action, and you will |
830 | 01:11:37 --> 01:11:40 | do it better than anyone else is going to be able to teach you in a book course |
831 | 01:11:40 --> 01:11:45 | or whatnot. It's more predictable. It's not ambiguous. It's something that is |
832 | 01:11:45 --> 01:11:50 | transferable knowledge. And it is fun, when you really learn how to do this. |
833 | 01:11:50 --> 01:11:55 | It's fun. And you can turn it into whatever you want to turn it into. You |
834 | 01:11:55 --> 01:12:01 | want to get wealthy, there's lots of ways to turn this into a wealthy income |
835 | 01:12:01 --> 01:12:05 | stream, through your trades that are profitable, you let time and money |
836 | 01:12:05 --> 01:12:09 | management and the money management aspects, do all the heavy lifting, |
837 | 01:12:09 --> 01:12:15 | compound interest and let time do that. But in the beginning, as a new trader, |
838 | 01:12:15 --> 01:12:20 | time is a commodity that you don't have a lot of in your mind, when you have to |
839 | 01:12:20 --> 01:12:23 | submit to the fact that you have whatever time you have left. It's it. |
840 | 01:12:24 --> 01:12:28 | however long you're here until you're taken out of this world, that's how much |
841 | 01:12:28 --> 01:12:31 | time you have. And nobody knows that. And I'm not saying that that should |
842 | 01:12:31 --> 01:12:35 | speed up this urgency that you need to learn how to do it real quick, because |
843 | 01:12:35 --> 01:12:39 | the urgency of trying to learn how to do it real quick. That unfortunately is a |
844 | 01:12:39 --> 01:12:43 | problem. And it causes people to want to rush, they want to get through it too |
845 | 01:12:43 --> 01:12:48 | fast, without really learning what it is that they should have learned. Two |
846 | 01:12:48 --> 01:12:52 | things are about to happen. If it pans out. If it goes above this swing high, |
847 | 01:12:52 --> 01:12:57 | as I mentioned before, there's buyside above that, and if it trades into that |
848 | 01:13:03 --> 01:13:12 | top so if it trades above that high, I'm going to close I'm actually going to do |
849 | 01:13:14 --> 01:13:22 | three, I'm gonna do three and then if it runs at this one here, I'll be I'll be |
850 | 01:13:22 --> 01:13:26 | done for the day. Because it's a little late in the morning and my wife this |
851 | 01:13:26 --> 01:13:35 | gave me the Harry I will have this satisfied with that. But doing your the |
852 | 01:13:35 --> 01:13:39 | bird that comes every morning around the same time, and sit down sits out there |
853 | 01:13:39 --> 01:13:46 | on my deck and starts chirping. But it's so fun, you know, seeing how students do |
854 | 01:13:46 --> 01:13:51 | the very things I encourage them to do. And the two things I was going to do is |
855 | 01:13:51 --> 01:13:56 | I'm gonna take profit here, above that 93 and a half level should offer it to |
856 | 01:13:56 --> 01:14:00 | me. And let me just do it this way because it might pull some shenanigans |
857 | 01:14:00 --> 01:14:06 | on me. Alright, so that way I limit orders there so it goes above it'll fill |
858 | 01:14:06 --> 01:14:12 | me hopefully, and then it does that then I'm gonna roll the stop up to just half |
859 | 01:14:12 --> 01:14:13 | of this wick is here |
860 | 01:14:19 --> 01:14:25 | I will roll the stop just below to 4577 even which is below consequent |
861 | 01:14:25 --> 01:14:30 | parchment. Okay. That's what's going to happen. Three contracts will come off. |
862 | 01:14:30 --> 01:14:33 | Three will be left here. Also, if it really ramps up there. They'll |
863 | 01:14:33 --> 01:14:37 | completely close out the trade and now we'll have one more opportunity to be |
864 | 01:14:37 --> 01:14:42 | able to prance around the house like Mick Jagger and tell my wife. I told him |
865 | 01:14:42 --> 01:14:45 | so. I told him so. |
866 | 01:14:50 --> 01:15:00 | Scout. Hey, Scout. It's almost time honey relax, wants to get out bear with |
867 | 01:15:00 --> 01:15:03 | me a second. These are all the things that usually get edited out of the video |
868 | 01:15:03 --> 01:15:07 | about the stolen stuff anymore and getting it wrong |
869 | 01:15:32 --> 01:15:36 | these are, these are times as a new trader, not really in front of my |
870 | 01:15:36 --> 01:15:40 | laptop. So the price didn't pick me up on volume. But these are the times where |
871 | 01:15:40 --> 01:15:44 | traders get nervous, they get scared like, Oh no, it's going back against me |
872 | 01:15:44 --> 01:15:48 | just, it's pulling back inside of this range expansion, which if this candle |
873 | 01:15:48 --> 01:15:52 | closes becomes a fair value gap, I would want to see that stay open. If this |
874 | 01:15:52 --> 01:15:57 | candle closes, I don't want to see it. All young re visit a reprice back to |
875 | 01:15:57 --> 01:16:00 | that candles Hi, I don't want to see that. There's liquidity here. There's |
876 | 01:16:00 --> 01:16:05 | liquidity here. It's in striking distance. And it is opposed to the |
877 | 01:16:05 --> 01:16:08 | underlying sentiment that's been engineered this morning where it's going |
878 | 01:16:08 --> 01:16:11 | to go lower, they cancelled out any opportunity for those people that were |
879 | 01:16:11 --> 01:16:14 | trying to be short to be profitable. See that mentioned that earlier in this |
880 | 01:16:14 --> 01:16:23 | recording. So I'm trusting I'm trusting the arm one side, one side means that |
881 | 01:16:23 --> 01:16:29 | it's going to run for the liquidity I'm targeting. I apologize if you hear |
882 | 01:16:29 --> 01:16:32 | crunching in the background. She's eating a chicken foot and give them to |
883 | 01:16:32 --> 01:16:39 | them once a day. And I think she's demand she was demanding it basically |
884 | 01:16:39 --> 01:16:42 | that she wants to get out run around. She's in a kennel right now. Because if |
885 | 01:16:42 --> 01:16:45 | I don't put her in a kennel, she'll be crawling up and jumping on my lap and |
886 | 01:16:45 --> 01:16:49 | licking me in the face. And it'd be much more distracting. And I probably |
887 | 01:16:49 --> 01:16:52 | wouldn't have been able to stay on track as much as I have been here even though |
888 | 01:16:52 --> 01:16:56 | some of you may think that this guy is all over the place. And I'm doing |
889 | 01:16:56 --> 01:17:00 | actually pretty good compared to what I've done in the past, it's to work |
890 | 01:17:00 --> 01:17:06 | better focus, I've been enjoying my time, my time away from social media, |
891 | 01:17:06 --> 01:17:12 | then away from Twitter. I miss engaging all of you. Obviously, you can see that |
892 | 01:17:12 --> 01:17:18 | by me doing this. But it just it's nice not seeing all the other stuff that |
893 | 01:17:18 --> 01:17:23 | social media constantly posts outside of trading is it constantly keep you |
894 | 01:17:24 --> 01:17:31 | depressed, ain't got time for it. Alright, so again, we've been working on |
895 | 01:17:31 --> 01:17:37 | a five minute chart. So I don't want to come off of the five minute chart. But |
896 | 01:17:37 --> 01:17:42 | when this trade hopefully pans out, it gives me at least a 45 minute three and |
897 | 01:17:42 --> 01:17:48 | a half. Phil, then I'll drop down to a limit chart and give you the the view or |
898 | 01:17:48 --> 01:17:53 | the lay of the land, if you will, on what the one minute chart looks like. I |
899 | 01:17:53 --> 01:17:57 | have forced myself to only use the chart that I'm showing you here. I'm |
900 | 01:17:57 --> 01:18:03 | downstairs in my I guess it's called the great room. My trading room is upstairs, |
901 | 01:18:03 --> 01:18:07 | where we have all the monitors and stuff. I've only used what I'm showing |
902 | 01:18:07 --> 01:18:10 | you on the laptop. Okay, so everything the perspective I've had on the |
903 | 01:18:10 --> 01:18:15 | marketplace, was limited to just what you have seen in this video. I've not |
904 | 01:18:15 --> 01:18:18 | looked at anything else, I promise you in Jesus name, there's been nothing |
905 | 01:18:18 --> 01:18:23 | else. There's no added advantages of any other timeframes. Everything was based |
906 | 01:18:23 --> 01:18:26 | on what I'm showing you here. So that way for the folks are saying, you know, |
907 | 01:18:26 --> 01:18:29 | I see you have that big setup, you know, and that's the reason why you're |
908 | 01:18:29 --> 01:18:37 | profitable. No, no, those things helped me. But they are not requirements. You |
909 | 01:18:37 --> 01:18:41 | can literally do this with one laptop and not have anything but one screen. |
910 | 01:18:41 --> 01:18:45 | You don't need to divide it up either. You don't have to have all the windows |
911 | 01:18:45 --> 01:18:48 | segregated, showing you different multiple timeframes. If you know what |
912 | 01:18:48 --> 01:18:53 | you're looking for, you simplify your model. And I've, in my opinion, I've |
913 | 01:18:53 --> 01:18:57 | simplified the things I've taught on this channel, again here on one of the |
914 | 01:18:57 --> 01:19:03 | most complex, difficult trading days by my own description and definition. Non |
915 | 01:19:03 --> 01:19:08 | Farm Payroll Fridays, are difficult trading days because they're highly |
916 | 01:19:08 --> 01:19:14 | manipulated. Meaning that what you might anticipate in any given day, they may |
917 | 01:19:14 --> 01:19:19 | deny you. They mean they may not allow me to at 9350 exit. They may not allow |
918 | 01:19:19 --> 01:19:22 | me to get any more profit. They make this Senate lower and take the stop and |
919 | 01:19:22 --> 01:19:27 | that's it. I don't care if it happens because I've done enough. But for some |
920 | 01:19:27 --> 01:19:32 | of you, it might not seem like a victory feels like oh, that was a failure. It |
921 | 01:19:32 --> 01:19:35 | didn't work like you said it was going to so therefore Smart Money concepts |
922 | 01:19:35 --> 01:19:39 | don't work. Oh, that's flawed logic. You're still gonna be working next week. |
923 | 01:19:39 --> 01:19:43 | So I mean, that's, that's the reason why you should be learning how to trade is |
924 | 01:19:43 --> 01:19:47 | that way you don't need to go to work next week. You don't need to get that |
925 | 01:19:47 --> 01:19:50 | paycheck that they're going to give you for prostituting your time. |
926 | 01:20:00 --> 01:20:07 | We're going to take the better golfer Rhinelander |
927 | 01:20:13 --> 01:20:17 | my wife doesn't like to take rides in the back because I get a little, a |
928 | 01:20:17 --> 01:20:21 | little heavy on the acceleration pedal. No all the time, but just sometimes, |
929 | 01:20:21 --> 01:20:30 | because of the the torque and pushing into the chair, it makes you think two |
930 | 01:20:30 --> 01:20:35 | years ago we were, we were driving in some nut job cut in front of me |
931 | 01:20:35 --> 01:20:44 | basically here to ODU driving a car economic vehicle, electric thing cut in |
932 | 01:20:44 --> 01:20:53 | front of me new signal, whatnot. I just wanted to fly by and I was like, No, |
933 | 01:20:54 --> 01:20:59 | don't do that. Why are you doing this man? I just wanted the buzzer. Like Top |
934 | 01:20:59 --> 01:21:02 | Gun, you know, in the same way, say you mean buzzer tower. Yeah, I'm with the |
935 | 01:21:02 --> 01:21:07 | buzzer him. So now I'm looking at the consequent correction and that wick |
936 | 01:21:07 --> 01:21:14 | right here. So I want to see that just reach into that or just above it and |
937 | 01:21:14 --> 01:21:18 | then run for that liquidity. You can go down here and wick below it, I just |
938 | 01:21:18 --> 01:21:19 | don't want to see it close below it |
939 | 01:21:31 --> 01:21:37 | you can clearly see how all this becomes a lot more confusing. And having too |
940 | 01:21:37 --> 01:21:40 | many things on your chart. That's why I don't have it, but I'm showing you |
941 | 01:21:40 --> 01:21:43 | visually. So hopefully you can appreciate what I'm doing here because |
942 | 01:21:44 --> 01:21:50 | this is a terrible distraction to me. But I'm showing you from a conceptual |
943 | 01:21:50 --> 01:21:54 | perspective, what in my mind, I'm concerning myself with and focusing on. |
944 | 01:21:55 --> 01:22:02 | It's that very level right there. Okay, and I apologize if you can hear my dog |
945 | 01:22:02 --> 01:22:10 | chewing up for chicken foot, but that's what they say in the real world is. You |
946 | 01:22:10 --> 01:22:14 | know, I'm a human being I got puppies. You know, I love them. They're part of |
947 | 01:22:14 --> 01:22:20 | my family. And if I'm not in their sight, they will freak out and cry. You |
948 | 01:22:20 --> 01:22:27 | barking the hype and go on and on. And life is very jealous of that by the way. |
949 | 01:22:28 --> 01:22:32 | I do everything for him and they love you most. That's because I'm ICT baby. |
950 | 01:22:35 --> 01:22:45 | Yeah, yeah. I only pretend to be full of myself when the internet Trust me, I |
951 | 01:22:45 --> 01:22:48 | don't feel that way about myself. In reality, I just deal with the rest of |
952 | 01:22:48 --> 01:22:53 | people that don't like me. And you know, you are Mr watching my video but don't |
953 | 01:22:53 --> 01:22:53 | like |
954 | 01:23:01 --> 01:23:07 | it. Alright, so I have to submit myself to the willingness of letting it go into |
955 | 01:23:07 --> 01:23:10 | this fair pay gap, which is what I didn't want to see it do, I don't want |
956 | 01:23:10 --> 01:23:12 | to see it come around saying I don't want to see it come back or we do that |
957 | 01:23:12 --> 01:23:16 | candle. So I have to submit myself to the idea that it may need to do that |
958 | 01:23:16 --> 01:23:20 | very thing here. It's completely permissible. It's better if it doesn't |
959 | 01:23:20 --> 01:23:24 | completely close it, the trades where it's here and then starts to rally up. |
960 | 01:23:24 --> 01:23:28 | Okay, that's fine. Remember, there's three PD res three things I'm looking |
961 | 01:23:28 --> 01:23:35 | at. That will cancel the trade, it will remove the I guess the the probabilities |
962 | 01:23:35 --> 01:23:41 | of it panning out my favor. So after three PD arrays that outline in my mind, |
963 | 01:23:41 --> 01:23:44 | and one of them was the constant encouragement of this wick here. It's |
964 | 01:23:44 --> 01:23:50 | this candles high. And now it's this order block level, if we trade back into |
965 | 01:23:50 --> 01:23:54 | that order block, I'm uncomfortable holding the trade and I'll probably I'll |
966 | 01:23:54 --> 01:23:59 | cancel the trade at that point, I won't even let it go down to this low sum of |
967 | 01:23:59 --> 01:24:03 | words, if it trades this order block and digs into that body right there, I will |
968 | 01:24:03 --> 01:24:06 | make the trade right there. And even if it rips back up here, I'm okay I care |
969 | 01:24:06 --> 01:24:12 | less. Now, that's something that most of you don't have a comfort level with. |
970 | 01:24:12 --> 01:24:15 | Because you need your trade to pan out or you feel like a failure. I don't feel |
971 | 01:24:15 --> 01:24:19 | that way. I don't feel that way at all. You know, I want to go home with a |
972 | 01:24:19 --> 01:24:24 | couple $1,000 today. In addition to what I've already took away, that's how my |
973 | 01:24:24 --> 01:24:29 | mindset works. So to sit in a trade and let it go all the way back down below |
974 | 01:24:30 --> 01:24:35 | this orderbox mean threshold, like I don't want to see it do that because the |
975 | 01:24:35 --> 01:24:38 | mean threshold is down close candle is also basically below of that fair value, |
976 | 01:24:38 --> 01:24:44 | get the shape and green, you see that. So there's a lot of things that to me, |
977 | 01:24:44 --> 01:24:48 | it doesn't need to go back down here for that. If it's going down there, it's |
978 | 01:24:48 --> 01:24:53 | going down here to go lower, lower to a degree where I'm uncomfortable holding |
979 | 01:24:53 --> 01:25:01 | the trade. So this is this thing that I got mentioned earlier. That's where |
980 | 01:25:01 --> 01:25:07 | we're at right now. In my mind, I see traders seeing that as oh, we're we got |
981 | 01:25:07 --> 01:25:14 | strong resistance at 4593 and a half and they're wanting to go short. So what |
982 | 01:25:14 --> 01:25:19 | does that do it engineers liquidity more by side if there wasn't already a |
983 | 01:25:19 --> 01:25:23 | significant amount here, which there is absolutely a significant amount up here. |
984 | 01:25:23 --> 01:25:30 | This level in this level is building by side liquidity. Because they see this |
985 | 01:25:31 --> 01:25:41 | when I say they, they are the retail traders. Hey, let's go. Okay. Enough of |
986 | 01:25:41 --> 01:25:51 | that. She's rowdy when we got her first, first time home with her. She was very |
987 | 01:25:52 --> 01:25:58 | timid. And Piper the other boxer puppy. She was rowdy, like I wanted to rename a |
988 | 01:25:58 --> 01:26:04 | rowdy. But scat was always bullied by her. And now Scout has flipped the |
989 | 01:26:04 --> 01:26:09 | script and now she's the rambunctious rowdy one in that's the one that's |
990 | 01:26:09 --> 01:26:11 | making all the noise Piper's been laying at my feet the whole time just being |
991 | 01:26:11 --> 01:26:17 | real she's she's a sweetheart I love them both but Scout I guess because she |
992 | 01:26:17 --> 01:26:21 | was bullied by Piper her first few months now she's like well I'm gonna be |
993 | 01:26:21 --> 01:26:26 | the dominant one and she does she dominates her in every aspect towards a |
994 | 01:26:26 --> 01:26:30 | smaller in stature in size but she's gotten bigger like she's filled out |
995 | 01:26:30 --> 01:26:37 | better and she's trying to exert her dominance so she's looking at a |
996 | 01:26:37 --> 01:26:42 | hyperlink next to me and she wants to be over here trying to usurp |
997 | 01:26:47 --> 01:26:51 | so this is what I was referring to earlier like on on nonpayroll Fridays |
998 | 01:26:52 --> 01:26:56 | the things that you want to see happen which it should very easily just came |
999 | 01:26:56 --> 01:27:01 | right out there and swipe that look how close they got look at the high it's the |
1000 | 01:27:01 --> 01:27:06 | 93.50 level so what do I need to get out there? I need that spread so it's |
1001 | 01:27:06 --> 01:27:12 | denying that it denied it okay. This candle High was nine 350 This candle as |
1002 | 01:27:12 --> 01:27:18 | high as nine 350 And you wonder why I don't trade aggressively and more |
1003 | 01:27:19 --> 01:27:23 | frequently when the Non Farm Payroll Friday that comes around it's because of |
1004 | 01:27:23 --> 01:27:26 | these very characteristics they're highly manipulated |
1005 | 01:28:03 --> 01:28:06 | just want to take a quick look at the NASDAQ real quick |
1006 | 01:28:11 --> 01:28:18 | alright it's pulled into Is there a gap as well liquidity is resting here |
1007 | 01:28:24 --> 01:28:30 | I'm gonna roll the staff up to brass I was gonna do to earlier so I'm gonna |
1008 | 01:28:30 --> 01:28:38 | lock in this is rolled up to 3000 it goes there I want to be out anyway so I |
1009 | 01:28:38 --> 01:28:47 | now I've completely removed any concern should have decided not to go to my |
1010 | 01:28:47 --> 01:28:55 | limit orders I've funded myself a paid the tree and I removed even further |
1011 | 01:28:57 --> 01:29:00 | she's she wants out of her kennel |
1012 | 01:29:31 --> 01:29:37 | she got her way just like my wife. I'm gonna keep doing this. Oh, there we go. |
1013 | 01:29:38 --> 01:29:44 | There's a limit order and then see if we can punch up and get the other one and |
1014 | 01:29:46 --> 01:29:51 | randomness again. There we go. Beautiful beautiful field you better fill me I |
1015 | 01:29:51 --> 01:29:59 | thought so. So again, you know one of those instances where I guess this stuff |
1016 | 01:29:59 --> 01:30:06 | still works. So I guess the they haven't figured out how to beat ICT. As I've |
1017 | 01:30:06 --> 01:30:09 | enjoyed my time with you all this morning, hopefully, you got something |
1018 | 01:30:09 --> 01:30:15 | out of all this. If anything, if it's an inspiring to you to stick to what it is |
1019 | 01:30:15 --> 01:30:18 | I'm teaching you it works, folks, I promise you there's nothing else there's |
1020 | 01:30:18 --> 01:30:22 | absolutely nothing else out there that's better than this. This is the market. |
1021 | 01:30:23 --> 01:30:27 | This is the market. Look at the turning point here. I told you I can go down and |
1022 | 01:30:27 --> 01:30:30 | touch that it's better if it doesn't, but if it does, I would expect it to do |
1023 | 01:30:30 --> 01:30:36 | what? move higher. In the event that I'm incorrect, what am I doing? I'm making |
1024 | 01:30:36 --> 01:30:43 | sure I'm paid. I rolled the stop and then delivered like gangbusters back |
1025 | 01:30:45 --> 01:30:52 | every week, every day and it won't stop. Until talk to you next time. Be safe |