ICT YT - 2023-10-30 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Final Market Commentary October 30 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-11-04 09:35
Outline
02:19 - Stock market and technical analysis.
- ICT checks Twitter for audio issues, clarifies Jeep accident in garage.
- ICT says goodbye to YouTube channel, teases upcoming market maker sell model lecture.
06:04 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- I execute trades on Mondays before Non Farm Payroll events, annotating real-time price movements.
- ICT plans to trade the bond market, S&P, and NASDAQ, aiming for 12.5% per week and targeting $10,000 in the futures division by January.
- ICT may take a break or experience a drawdown due to geopolitical events, but aims to finish trading before Thanksgiving next year.
09:45 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- ICT annotated a chart to demonstrate how he would have traded based on a potential inversion of a breaker and a wick.
- He explained how he would have risked a certain amount on each entry and adjusted his stop loss based on real-time price action.
- ICT identifies strong signals in the market by looking for consequent encroachment of defined levels, which is not support resistance but rather a sign of inefficiency (15 words)
- ICT adds to positions as the market reaches the lower area of a shaded daily volume imbalance, anticipating a potential bounce (16 words)
- ICT limits trades to Mondays during Non Farm Payroll weeks, citing high volatility and manipulation.
- Monday morning is when professional traders try to inspire sentiment for the rest of the week.
16:49 - Trading strategies and avoiding losses during non-farm payroll weeks.
- Avoid trading on Thursday and Friday of non-farm payroll weeks, even if experienced, as market conditions are unfavorable.
- ICT highlights the importance of volume and bounce levels in determining price movement.
- ICT emphasizes the lack of relevance of candlestick patterns in predicting price action, instead focusing on macro factors.
20:47 - Trading strategies and impulsiveness in the market.
- The speaker recounts a time when they were impulsive in their trading, abandoning a setup that wasn't working and trying something entirely different without understanding it.
- The speaker warns that impulsiveness can lead to inviting ruin and losing money, and the only way to stop it is by losing so much that one becomes too afraid to take another trade.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of logic and precision in trading, rather than relying on impulsive decisions or blindly following PDAs.
- ICT prioritizes identifying specific levels of support and resistance, and only entering trades when those levels are met, rather than blindly buying or selling based on market movements.
25:37 - Trading and journaling for beginners.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of journaling as a coping mechanism for early stages of development, where individuals may struggle with energy and motivation.
- ICT advises against wasting time on social media and instead focuses on self-development and independent decision-making.
- ICT argues that markets are predetermined and scripted, with prices following a specific path based on algorithmic principles.
- ICT believes that the recent consolidation in the market is strong and will lead to a rally, with the price range between two levels being particularly important.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding unique trading models and entry points, rather than relying on a single "silver bullet" approach.
- ICT shares personal experiences of struggling to find profitable trading strategies and losing money in the past, but now teaches students multiple ways to skin the cat.
34:08 - Trading mindset and risk management.
- Develop a "come hell or high water" mindset for trading, dialing back leverage and size in the beginning.
- Develop a trading mindset that allows for losses to occur and learn from them, rather than avoiding them at all costs.
38:07 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of having the right mindset when trading, particularly in a down market.
- He shares a technique for entering trades with a one-point stop loss, without using a traditional stop loss order.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of midpoint levels in trading, despite bodies disregarding them.
- ICT creates a unique language to understand price movements, which involves departing from traditional concepts of supply and demand, support and resistance, and Elliot waves.
- ICT anticipates specific levels to be traded to, but acknowledges that price may push beyond those levels and provides a stoploss to account for this potential movement.
45:09 - Trading strategies and personal responsibility.
- Trader struggles with balancing short-term and long-term market analysis.
- Trader must take responsibility for their own results, as following someone else's method or trade signal is ultimately their fault.
48:41 - Improving trading exits using quadrants and scientific analysis.
- ICT explains his price target for Terminus, frustrated with past exits.
- Trader seeks to refine entry and exit strategies, frustrated by denial of limit order by one tick.
52:25 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding market direction and using macros to execute trades with precision.
- ICT is frustrated by the lack of clarity in predicting market movements and desires to crack the code to this aspect of trading.
- ICT explains that Non Farm Payroll Mondays are characterized by quick market movements, often resulting in losses for inexperienced traders.
- ICT demonstrates how to identify and trade on these movements using real-time examples.
- ICT believes there's a sucker born every second, and Friday NFP is a big easy home hit, but Monday and Tuesday are professional days for smart money.
- ICT prioritizes Monday and Tuesday for trading, as Wednesday can be choppy and uncertain after the New York lunch hour.
01:00:13 - Trading psychology and social media distractions.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of collecting and analyzing data in one's own charts to confirm trading ideas, rather than relying on others' opinions or social media.
- ICT warns against inviting toxicity and distractions from social media while trading, and instead views it as a tool for sharing information and learning.
01:03:18 - Technical analysis and trade management.
- Ict interprets price action as reacting off a lower quadrant, aiming to reach the target of 14,500.
- Ict monitors the time it takes to reach the first lower quadrant, measuring the consolidation after hitting the low end of the blue shaded area.
- ICT anticipates price will traverse from current level to Terminus level of 14,467, and half the upper quadrant of the blue shaded area.
- Following a logical process and taking partial profits at predetermined levels can help avoid impulsive trading decisions and maximize gains.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of technical skills and precision in the industry, dismissing titles and handshakes.
01:10:38 - Technical analysis and market predictions.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding market logic and identifying key levels of support and resistance to inform trading decisions.
- ICT's unique approach to analysis involves using a top-down perspective to identify macro cycles and their potential impact on price movements, with a focus on precision and accuracy.
01:13:51 - Trading and price analysis.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of patience and effort in trading, warning against a "quick fix" mentality.
- ICT highlights daily volume imbalances on higher timeframes, focusing on first quadrant for trading opportunities.
01:17:14 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT: Identifies signature patterns in price action, such as closes above quadrant levels, to inform trading decisions.
- ICT: High-frequency traders use algorithms to cannibalize price, creating opportunities for Smart Money traders to enter the market.
- ICT argues that the stock market is rigged and gambling, with no edge for traders.
- ICT explains the importance of confluence in technical analysis, using levels of support and resistance as examples.
- ICT highlights the role of high-frequency trading algorithms in predetermining the high and low of the day, which can impact price movements.
01:25:52 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT refers to trading outside the levels and coloring outside the lines, anticipating specific price movements based on inversion fair value gaps.
- Inversion fair Vega trades are treated as support, with a stop loss placed at least two ticks below the gap, considering the potential for a "Mohawk" rate to that well.
- ICT explains how algorithms determine highs and lows before trading begins.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding why price movements occur, not just that they will occur.
- ICT believes that a deviation on a one-minute chart does not necessarily indicate a change in the algorithm's behavior.
01:33:18 - Trading with small leverage for consistent profits.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of trading with reasonable leverage and not trying to do too many trades at once.
- He warns against trying to speed up the learning process by trading with real money without proper knowledge and experience, as it can lead to painful losses and a fearful approach to trading.
01:36:20 - Market rigging and algorithmic trading.
- Trader explains unique language and strategies for identifying high-probability trading opportunities.
- ICT argues that the market is rigged and controlled by algorithms, not a free market.
01:40:23 - Technical analysis and market algorithms.
- ICT explains how to read candlestick charts, highlighting the importance of understanding the highest highs and lowest lows.
- ICT uses TradingView for analysis, but emphasizes the importance of critical thinking and not relying solely on any one resource for trading decisions.
- Trader identifies potential price target based on algorithmic analysis.
- ICT explains that the booking engines that create price fluctuations on financial markets are not random, but rather follow a price delivery continuum that starts on lower timeframes and moves up to higher timeframes.
- ICT highlights a volume imbalance in a specific candlestick pattern, where the bodies are not overlapping the gap between the two candles, indicating a lack of candlestick body.
01:47:59 - Market inefficiencies and potential trading opportunities.
- Trader identifies inefficiency in market, anticipates repricing upward.
- Trader identifies potential area of support based on volume imbalances and previous price action.
01:52:13 - Using volume imbalance for trading.
- ICT teaches his students to use volume imbalance on different timeframes to identify potential trading opportunities.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of recognizing and understanding market structure on different timeframes.
- ICT encourages his students to practice and develop their own trading style, acknowledging that everyone brings their own unique perspective and challenges to trading.
- ICT: Focus on delivering high-quality analysis, not exciting market movements (17,000 hours of nonfarm payroll data)
- ICT: Don't worry about predicting market movements, as they are manipulated and controlled (fundamental basis of market prices won't change)
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding the logic behind trading strategies, rather than just relying on visual cues.
- He provides detailed explanations and examples to help students learn and apply his methods correctly.
- ICT encourages students to take a patient and methodical approach to learning, rather than expecting quick results.
02:01:04 - Technical analysis and market manipulation.
- ICT highlights a liquidity void on the daily chart, indicating limited trading activity.
- Michael explains why he focuses on spotty parts of contracts during illiquid times, as algorithm will base price on current contract.
02:05:36 - Analyzing an audio transcript for trading insights.
- The speaker identifies a "real gap" or "liquidity void" of one handle (4 ticks) between two candlesticks on the 60-minute chart, which could be a factor for price action.
- The speaker highlights a volume imbalance on the daily and four-hour charts, which could also impact price movement.
- Analyzes price action to identify potential trading opportunities.
02:09:38 - Trading strategies and liquidity analysis.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of having a framework for trading and practicing in a demo account before using real money.
- The speaker identifies an inefficiency in the market, where there is no trading between two successive candlesticks, and refines the levels to show the high and low of the candlestick.
- ICT explains the concept of a "breaker" in trading, using a chart to illustrate the idea of entering a position inside a defined range.
- ICT demonstrates how to use a lower timeframe entry to position oneself within order flow, potentially for a pyramid entry if the price later comes back down.
- ICT explains that there is a hierarchy to using various market analysis techniques, and it's important to understand how liquidity can affect price movements.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of identifying where retail logic is likely to draw price levels, as it can lead to incorrect assumptions and losing money in the markets.
02:17:30 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of starting with a solid basis point for learning and practicing, which can lead to increased confidence and success in trading.
- Trader emphasizes specific levels and volume imbalance in chart analysis.
02:20:39 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT identifies a potential bearish order block at a closed candle above a certain area, but notes that not every closed candle is a bearish order block.
- ICT prioritizes s&p divergences over Dow divergences, as they are more reliable and have more weight due to the larger number of stocks in the s&p composite index.
- ICT highlights the importance of identifying and trading off wicks in the market, as they represent gaps and inefficiencies that smart money algorithms will exploit.
- ICT demonstrates how to identify and trade off wicks by looking for consistent price movements near the encouragement level, and entering trades with a stoploss near the gap.
- ICT is using a unique approach to trading that involves analyzing order flow and identifying consistent patterns.
- ICT is teaching his method to a select group of traders, emphasizing the importance of understanding the logic behind his trades.
- ICT is using a combination of high-timeframe analysis and low-timeframe entry points to identify potential trading opportunities.
02:29:43 - Technical analysis and order block trading strategies.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of price and time in market analysis.
- Focus on entry between opening and mean threshold in shaded area.
02:33:29 - Technical analysis and shark behavior in the stock market.
- ICT analyzes the price action in the shaded area and identifies a resistance level, which is confirmed by the volume balance.
- ICT expects the price to break through the resistance level and reach the next level of support, which is confirmed by the Mohawk pattern.
02:36:50 - High-frequency trading and market manipulation.
- ICT explains that high frequency trading algorithms are the real dance in the markets, manipulating prices and causing choppy movements.
- ICT highlights the importance of understanding the volume and balance in the market to predict price movements, using the example of a bullish order block.
- ICT argues that traders are relying on simplistic chart patterns and moving average crossovers, which don't work in today's markets.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding market direction, rather than relying solely on entry techniques and edge.
- ICT believes gold's value is absurdly low and should be worth $20,000, highlighting the manipulation of the market.
02:44:08 - Gold market potential and cryptocurrency risks.
- ICT predicts gold will rise as BRICS nations currency gains traction, causing dollar to fall.
- Tensions in Middle East could lead to gold rally, but not a meteoric rise.
- ICT believes gold will rally but warns against shorting or buying at current levels.
02:48:55 - Market instability and trading strategies.
- The speaker believes the US dollar is being manipulated and is a "villain" due to its volatility and potential for wild spikes.
- The speaker is watching the destabilization of the US and the Middle East, and is concerned about the potential for wars and the impact on the economy.
- ICT believes the Fed will continue to drive up the dollar index, leading to higher interest rates and suppressed commodity prices.
- ICT plans to take a break from trading until February, starting new trades on the first Tuesday of the month.
- The speaker discusses the impact of controlled and orchestrated famine on commodity prices, including sugar and cocoa, and how it affects the macroeconomic environment.
- The speaker advises forex traders to focus on exotic currencies with higher interest rate differentials, rather than dollar-based currencies, during a period of dollar consolidation.
02:57:03 - Technical analysis of a currency market.
- ICT identifies a balanced price range on the four-hour chart, which should not be breached for further upside in the dollar index.
- If the price breaks below this range, it could lead to lower prices and a consolidation beyond the daily chart's current consolidation.
03:00:01 - Forex trading strategies and market analysis.
- ICT advises against trading dollar-based currencies, instead focusing on exotics with high-yielding interest rates.
- ICT advises against trading Euro due to dollar index consolidation.
03:03:51 - Forex trading with a focus on consolidation and interest rate differentials.
- Analyst assesses consolidation in pound yen market, with potential for breakout or continuation of range trading.
- ICT identifies a potential draw on liquidity in the forex market.
- Ict suggests trading Swiss franc vs Japanese yen due to interest rate differential.
03:10:23 - Oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- ICT: Oil prices will rise if Iran becomes more involved in the Israel-Gaza conflict, as the US will likely intervene.
- If oil prices rise, a weekly chart analysis will be conducted to determine the potential for further increases.
03:13:30 - Oil market manipulation and electric vehicles.
- The speaker believes the push for electric vehicles is a distraction from the real goal of taking control of oil reserves in the Middle East.
- The speaker thinks the oil industry is paying people to take their oil instead of selling it due to the lack of demand caused by the pandemic.
- ICT argues that the push for electric vehicles and the Green Deal is misguided and ignores the realities of energy production and consumption.
- ICT believes that the transition to electric vehicles will be difficult due to the strain on the aging electric grid and the lack of infrastructure to support widespread adoption.
03:19:25 - US-Iran tensions and energy policy.
- ICT expresses skepticism about the oil industry, citing lack of scientific evidence and potential for conflict.
- The speaker expresses concerns about the potential for conflict in the Middle East and its impact on the US grid.
03:22:42 - Markets and teaching plans.
- Michael shares his plans to end his YouTube channel and focus on personal life, while still sharing information through Twitter.
- Michael has reached 903,000 subscribers on his YouTube channel and is intimidated by the number, with requests for teaching circuits and tour invitations.
03:25:15 - Trading, success, and personal growth.
- ICT wants to focus on observing his students' progress without being the center of attention.
- He enjoys being a mentor but doesn't want to be a celebrity or hero, preferring to be seen as a boring person.
- ICT: "I'm not producing any more YouTube videos. I want people to see my creations with the author's perspective, not a personal interpretation."
- ICT: "Don't let success go to your head like it did me. Invite the right people in your life, or you'll live divided."
- ICT warns his students against sharing personal information online and being open to unwanted attention, citing safety concerns for himself and his family.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of maintaining a personal life separate from professional life, and not wanting to do interviews, teaching circuits, or work for his prop firm company.
03:33:36 - Personal growth and overcoming challenges.
- ICT feels uncomfortable in public settings and struggles to communicate their ideas effectively.
- ICT feels intimidated by large following, struggles with personal problems despite potential for financial success.
03:37:22 - Price action analysis and spiritual experiences.
- The speaker emphasizes the value of their unique approach to sharing information, which involves proving and annotating it live on live streams.
- The speaker discusses their ability to read price action and make money in the markets, promising to teach their method to listeners.
- The speaker's method involves analyzing candlestick patterns and using them to make trading decisions, with the goal of helping listeners read price action better than anyone else.
- ICT shares personal experiences with divine intervention, defying skepticism and doubt.
03:44:30 - Personal growth and faith.
- ICT claims authorship of concepts given to them by God, sharing them with others to help them understand and glorify Him.
03:47:21 - Addiction and personal struggles.
- The speaker reflects on their personal struggles with addiction and adversity, comparing their experiences to those of others.
03:49:36 - Personal growth, motivation, and tech.
- ICT feels hurt by criticism from loved ones, driven by childhood experiences of feeling insignificant.
- ICT: Learned coding before college, but languages became obsolete; still used C++ today.
03:54:54 - Teaching and giving credit to God.
- ICT: Seeks to give glory to God for their teachings, believing students will do a better job than they could on their own.
03:57:34 - Personal growth and social media influence.
- Ict reflects on their past struggles with financial charts, now able to understand and work with them.
- ICT struggles with the idea of being looked up to and the impact it has on his relationships.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:02:19 --> 00:02:31 | ICT: Good morning folks. hope everybody's doing well because could help me out here I'm gonna be checking the Twitter see if I can get a five by five if you |
| 2 | 00:02:31 --> 00:02:43 | guys can hear me if the volumes okay, if you see the NASDAQ one minute chart should be shown on your screen mail |
| 3 | 00:02:54 --> 00:03:10 | delay here. Okay, thank you so much, folks. Thank you. Alright, so I appreciate your patience this morning. I was preoccupied as juggling a lot of things from |
| 4 | 00:03:10 --> 00:03:23 | last night. Just to bring up the speed, I did not wreck my bed. That didn't happen. Thankfully, my wife's Jeep, it was being moved out of the garage, to |
| 5 | 00:03:23 --> 00:03:37 | take my son Cameron to Home Depot to pick up some tools for his new job. So two people pushing the button to raise the garage door caused an issue with the Jeep |
| 6 | 00:03:37 --> 00:03:47 | being backed out and then hitting the garage bottom panel. So that kind of put me out of sorts last night, so I wasn't I was gonna be able to sit there and |
| 7 | 00:03:47 --> 00:03:55 | talk about the markets. I spent about a half an hour trying to get it so I can close it. So if you were standing in front of my house, you would never know it. |
| 8 | 00:03:55 --> 00:04:04 | But I can see the small little separation between the panels now and on the inside. It has a little bit of a fold. So we were on the phone trying to get |
| 9 | 00:04:04 --> 00:04:17 | folks to come out here to suite to to get that corrected, so nobody got hurt, thankfully. And now let's get over here to the NASDAQ first I want to get that |
| 10 | 00:04:17 --> 00:04:25 | out of the way and then we'll go up to a macro perspective from the dollar. We'll go through dollar today we'll go through gold. We'll go through crude oil. |
| 11 | 00:04:26 --> 00:04:45 | We'll look at Euro dollar POUND DOLLAR. Yes, NASDAQ and Dow and I think that will be it. As a reminder, this is my last commentary for the YouTube channel |
| 12 | 00:04:45 --> 00:05:02 | here. I'll be taking my leave here on November 11 will be my last video that I upload to tour and I go dark I will be The Robins cup futures division next |
| 13 | 00:05:02 --> 00:05:14 | year. So if anybody out there wants to test themselves against the demo board, please, please, pretty please show me your edge. faqeer awards. Okay, bring your |
| 14 | 00:05:14 --> 00:05:28 | edge out there, we can all see it. So we are looking at the NASDAQ 100 futures. December deliveries is a one minute chart where everybody says it's noise. Let |
| 15 | 00:05:28 --> 00:05:37 | me get all this grandstanding out of the way here. Sorry. It's just for entertainment purposes during the actual executions. Alright, so we're looking |
| 16 | 00:05:37 --> 00:05:45 | at the out real quick, I'm sure you're probably freaking out. Okay. If not, you probably type it out. What about that market maker sell model and by model |
| 17 | 00:05:46 --> 00:05:56 | lecture, I'm going to give you that tomorrow evening at nine o'clock, okay, so it'll be on the YouTube channel there, and I'll send the link on Twitter. If |
| 18 | 00:05:56 --> 00:06:06 | you're subscribed to my YouTube channel, I'm sure you'll get a notification for it. Alright, so let's go through the business here. This is a market maker sell |
| 19 | 00:06:06 --> 00:06:20 | model. Before I get into any long winded discussion about this particular market structure here, if you haven't already seen the video of me executing this |
| 20 | 00:06:20 --> 00:06:32 | morning, using all this stuff, it's gonna seem and feel just like hindsight. But I screen captured my executions and where price was at time at I believe is 953. |
| 21 | 00:06:33 --> 00:06:43 | It was just before 954 So that we can see everything that's in this chart here is exactly what was going on. That is not Market Replay. Okay. There are live |
| 22 | 00:06:43 --> 00:06:51 | executions. They're not Market Replay. They're not fake, they're not delayed data. Okay, and everything I'm annotating here was done real time before |
| 23 | 00:06:51 --> 00:07:03 | actually reacted off of it. I was calling notifications up in annotation, while price was doing it. Okay. So why am I executing on a Monday you might be asking, |
| 24 | 00:07:03 --> 00:07:17 | Well, what, what's this week? What is this week, it's the first week of November. And when there is a Non Farm Payroll event, I will typically look to |
| 25 | 00:07:17 --> 00:07:31 | do my trades Monday, Tuesday. And if I don't have anything by 11am, on Wednesday of that week, there I'm not taking anything. So because I kind of like want to |
| 26 | 00:07:31 --> 00:07:39 | do today's live commentary, give you a perspective, what my thoughts are going in and then the year because there's a lot of things going on around the world. |
| 27 | 00:07:39 --> 00:07:50 | Geopolitically, saber rattling a huge buildup in the Middle East. So something's about to pop off, and you will absolutely have that be a influence in your |
| 28 | 00:07:50 --> 00:07:59 | trading, it will greatly influence your trading and will greatly influence trading into next year. So I already know I'm going to be trading in an |
| 29 | 00:07:59 --> 00:08:08 | environment that's very challenging, but I don't care, I'm going to win it. And I encourage all of you to keep tabs on it. Okay, you can watch the leaderboard |
| 30 | 00:08:08 --> 00:08:19 | over there on Robins trading.com. Look at the World Cup link, click on that and then click on the standings link. In January I will register my account, I will |
| 31 | 00:08:19 --> 00:08:30 | be depositing $10,000 in the futures division, I'm not going to be in the Forex division, okay. I will be trading the bond market until I get enough of a |
| 32 | 00:08:30 --> 00:08:41 | cushion where I can start utilizing the s&p and the NASDAQ. And then where I feel it's more appropriate for me to trade I will trade back and forth between |
| 33 | 00:08:41 --> 00:08:49 | those three markets predominantly, I will not be trading anything else, I won't be trading any metals I will be trading crude oil, I won't be trading the grain |
| 34 | 00:08:49 --> 00:09:00 | markets. None of that. Okay, so it's going to be those three markets I talked about in my Twitter space the other day on Saturday that I'll be only taking one |
| 35 | 00:09:00 --> 00:09:12 | trade per day and we aiming for 12 and a half percent per week. And everything looks like it should be around nine and a half months. I'm adding a little bit |
| 36 | 00:09:12 --> 00:09:21 | of fluff in here because there may be a week or two where because of the things that are going on around the world, I may sit still or me drawdown so building |
| 37 | 00:09:21 --> 00:09:34 | in that I have to have some kind of cushion timewise so that allows me if I need to next year trade into November deeper into December to get the the number I'm |
| 38 | 00:09:34 --> 00:09:47 | wanting than done so be it okay, but I kind of want to try to get it done before Thanksgiving next year and that way the fun starts. Alright, so with all that |
| 39 | 00:09:47 --> 00:10:01 | out of the way, there is the shaded area up here. Okay, the shaded area is the daily volume imbalance for the NASDAQ. Okay, so what I was annotating on the |
| 40 | 00:10:01 --> 00:10:11 | chart was, I wanted to see, first of all, it took forever for Camtasia to start, and that's not a knock against them. Sometimes it just has a really long time |
| 41 | 00:10:11 --> 00:10:20 | before it starts up. If you have Camtasia, you probably already know I'm talking about, it takes forever some time for to start doing its thing before you can |
| 42 | 00:10:20 --> 00:10:32 | actually click the record button. So while I wanted to trade below here, on a run on stops, I couldn't do it and have the execution like I wanted to show this |
| 43 | 00:10:32 --> 00:10:38 | morning, I had this area here, I wanted to treat that as a potential inversion for your breakup, if it would have traded back down to it and the recording |
| 44 | 00:10:38 --> 00:10:46 | would started, I would have went long there. Same thing here, if it would have went down and touch that, then I would have used that one because this would |
| 45 | 00:10:46 --> 00:11:03 | have been a breaker. So even overlapping of this wick and the breaker in version inversion pier Vega, which would have been based on this over here now in my |
| 46 | 00:11:03 --> 00:11:14 | haste because I'm looking at this on a one minute chart. Okay, so a lot of you take for granted that I'm not only reading price, real time building an idea on |
| 47 | 00:11:14 --> 00:11:23 | where I want to take a trade entry. How much am I going to risk on that entry based on how much I want to build up in my position. And where's my stop loss |
| 48 | 00:11:23 --> 00:11:35 | going to be? Where will be the first point where I can move the stop loss to remove risk. And also annotate where you can follow along everything all that's |
| 49 | 00:11:35 --> 00:11:39 | going on at the same time, all real time. So |
| 50 | 00:11:41 --> 00:11:48 | this over here, you may look at this and say, Well, you know, I don't see how it's irregular, because look, he's skipping over this candle here in this one |
| 51 | 00:11:48 --> 00:11:56 | here. And he's looking at all this. So he's got two candles between what I was doing was I want you to think of this in the same way as an immersion fear, |
| 52 | 00:11:56 --> 00:12:02 | right? You go, Okay, but what really is the balanced price range, I don't have the time or the benefit of time typing it out while I was thinking about how I |
| 53 | 00:12:02 --> 00:12:10 | wanted to work in the entries in here, and you can watch the recording, see all that being done. If you look at the Barcelona balance, sell sign in efficiency |
| 54 | 00:12:10 --> 00:12:19 | right here, see that? That one big up candle right there. And then you have these here, these are two consecutive. So because that's also the same, |
| 55 | 00:12:19 --> 00:12:29 | essentially the same range, okay, I used to use those price points there to annotate and have that in mind going forward. And as the market dropped down |
| 56 | 00:12:29 --> 00:12:39 | into it, and here, notice it's using consequent encroachment of the range I've defined. This wasn't added after the fact it was added as it was going to trade |
| 57 | 00:12:39 --> 00:12:48 | into it. Then one more time into consequent crashing, which is the midpoint of two levels I'm highlighting which is not support resistance, because why would |
| 58 | 00:12:48 --> 00:12:57 | not have traded on the high over here. Because support and resistance is bullshit. So we're looking at this inefficiency here. And I liked the idea that |
| 59 | 00:12:57 --> 00:13:07 | we didn't even touch this as an inversion fair value got over here. Okay, my sides have been taken here. It stopped here. So it respected it already, then |
| 60 | 00:13:07 --> 00:13:19 | traded through it. This candle here should have already touched it. It didn't didn't touch it. Nope. So those are signatures for me to identify that as this |
| 61 | 00:13:19 --> 00:13:26 | is really strong. It's going to run for that daily volume and bounce, which is up here. And I will show you on a daily chart. What that is is to slow your roll |
| 62 | 00:13:26 --> 00:13:37 | here. Okay. The inability or lack of interest for it to come back down and touch this level is very influential to me. So it gives me the confidence to know |
| 63 | 00:13:37 --> 00:13:46 | that. Yeah, I can trade up here where someone else might look at that as chasing price that's absolutely not chasing price. It's absolutely not. It's not using |
| 64 | 00:13:46 --> 00:13:55 | Support Resistance. It's using levels that I've taught you very candidly on this YouTube channel and on Twitter midpoint of these two levels, that's consequent |
| 65 | 00:13:55 --> 00:14:05 | encroachment. I want to see this price show respect there. It does. And I'm adding to it as it's doing this. So I'm going along, I'm adding more to it while |
| 66 | 00:14:05 --> 00:14:14 | it's in here, anticipating the market to reach up into the lower area of this shaded area, which is the daily volume imbalance. Now daily volume and balance. |
| 67 | 00:14:15 --> 00:14:24 | Those levels can be traded through just like any other timeframe. But because now think this is the logic I was using going into this morning. If we are |
| 68 | 00:14:24 --> 00:14:36 | looking at a Non Farm Payroll week, the first week of November, the close of October. That means there's going to be a lot of excitement in the beginning of |
| 69 | 00:14:36 --> 00:14:46 | the week. Because professional traders are not trading Thursday and Friday have nonfarm payroll weeks. They're not doing it, especially now. Because of all of |
| 70 | 00:14:46 --> 00:14:59 | the wartime stuff that's going on. All the things that's going on, it's taking a great deal of a toll on the interest. People were willing to take in terms of |
| 71 | 00:14:59 --> 00:15:08 | risk So, usually I stopped like the week before Thanksgiving, but I'm stopping a little early this year because of all the things that's going on. And I want to |
| 72 | 00:15:08 --> 00:15:21 | close our time together on a high note. So this is where we're at. But Mondays generally I'm I'm willing to submit to not doing any real trades. Unless I'm |
| 73 | 00:15:21 --> 00:15:31 | inspired from somebody online, asking me to show something conceptually or answer somebody's bullshit, then I'll do something on a Monday. But generally, |
| 74 | 00:15:31 --> 00:15:41 | predominantly, it's Mondays I'm sitting there waiting for money to give me some kind of insight. I'm willing to pay that premium of letting it do whatever it |
| 75 | 00:15:41 --> 00:15:48 | wants to do on Monday and not be participating in it. That way, I'd have a better read on price for Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday, going into the week, |
| 76 | 00:15:49 --> 00:16:00 | close. But I am always chomping at the bit to trade on a Monday during the week of non farm payrolls. That's a general rule that my students have been taught |
| 77 | 00:16:00 --> 00:16:08 | for years. For a long time, it's been publicly known that I don't generally like to trade on Mondays, but not that I can't do it. I just predominantly want to |
| 78 | 00:16:09 --> 00:16:17 | limit my trades to Monday's or Non Farm Payroll week, because right out of the gate, there's gonna be a lot of volatility on that Monday. So for the folks are |
| 79 | 00:16:17 --> 00:16:27 | asking, Why was there so much movement this morning, look at every Monday of a Non Farm Payroll week, it's usually right out the gate, a lot of excitement. |
| 80 | 00:16:27 --> 00:16:37 | Because what they're trying to do is they're trying to inspire specific sentiment that will be attacked later in the week during the 30 news of Non Farm |
| 81 | 00:16:37 --> 00:16:48 | Payroll. So it's, it's a lot of manipulation. But the cleanest price action is always going to be found on Non Farm Payroll weeks, or Monday, Tuesday and up to |
| 82 | 00:16:49 --> 00:16:57 | 11am. On Wednesday. After that, it's a whole lot of tomfoolery going on. So if you don't know how to trade if you don't know what you're looking for, you can |
| 83 | 00:16:57 --> 00:17:07 | be very easily chopped up, you can be led astray in the thinking that you see a trade there, that's not I'm referring to things after the Wednesday 11am time. |
| 84 | 00:17:07 --> 00:17:16 | So if you haven't had a trade on by Wednesday morning's opening bell to like, say like 1030. If you don't have a lot of experience, it's just don't do |
| 85 | 00:17:16 --> 00:17:25 | anything the rest of the week, and just practice reading the tape, and be thankful when you do it wrong. That didn't hurt you. Okay, because if I push it |
| 86 | 00:17:25 --> 00:17:34 | really hard, if I push really, really hard during the Thursday and Friday of nonfarm payroll weeks, I'm more prone to have more losing trades than if I were |
| 87 | 00:17:34 --> 00:17:44 | to avoid them. Okay, so it's important that you understand that it's, it's kryptonite, for people even know how to trade really, really well. Those those |
| 88 | 00:17:44 --> 00:17:58 | conditions are very fickle. Meaning that the market can go in and start presenting. Suggestions, you technically across all manner of trading, not just |
| 89 | 00:17:58 --> 00:18:07 | my concepts, but all of them, it'll lead one to think that it can go higher or lower, or that it might consolidate, and then it doesn't consolidate, it runs |
| 90 | 00:18:07 --> 00:18:14 | real wild, one direction. And then you think, Okay, well, now it's really going to run that direction, or reverse and then you get in, then it consolidates and |
| 91 | 00:18:14 --> 00:18:24 | chops you up. So that's why I teach. And I tried to influence you to not want to do anything on Thursday and Friday of Non Farm Payroll, it's important that you |
| 92 | 00:18:24 --> 00:18:35 | understand that those days are extremely likely to hurt you. Even if you're good at trading, even if you've been doing it for a long time. You're inviting |
| 93 | 00:18:36 --> 00:18:48 | failure when it's not needed, you can simply just avoid it. Okay. So anyway, because this is a balanced price range in here and we have one up candle here |
| 94 | 00:18:48 --> 00:18:56 | and and these two consecutive are delivered to the downside, then we have these really clean levels there. So there's buyside there and in a balanced price |
| 95 | 00:18:56 --> 00:19:06 | range. In a perfect world, it should never touch that low level. And does it know does it react off of the midpoint of it between the two levels? Yes, it |
| 96 | 00:19:06 --> 00:19:17 | does. It comes down one more time in respects that midpoint. So I know at that time when this candle closes, okay. When Steve Nielsen's crew that like look at |
| 97 | 00:19:17 --> 00:19:27 | doji candles and things like that. There's lots of times that I have models that I go after doji candles. Okay, I haven't talked too much about that. But it'll |
| 98 | 00:19:27 --> 00:19:33 | be in one of my books. I don't know what's going on it'll be but it'll be there. And don't hang your hat on thinking oh, that's gonna be my model because it's |
| 99 | 00:19:33 --> 00:19:42 | not been talked about. It's so many people wanting to drop everything have already taught that works to get to the new shiny object okay. But there has to |
| 100 | 00:19:42 --> 00:19:52 | be a logic behind why price should be moving and gravitating towards a specific level, which is again this daily volume and bounce up here. Then if you see |
| 101 | 00:19:52 --> 00:20:02 | these things forming, not in and of themselves just because there's a wick or a tail on a candlestick doesn't mean it's gonna go up? Doesn't mean that at all. |
| 102 | 00:20:03 --> 00:20:15 | Many times it won't mean look at it down here. Your support, right? I'm gonna air support shit the bed. Okay, so I mean it's not the it's not for the |
| 103 | 00:20:16 --> 00:20:25 | simplicity of looking at candlestick patterns because by far and large they're they're nonsense just like harmonic patterns are just nonsense, okay. And I know |
| 104 | 00:20:25 --> 00:20:33 | that upsets people when I say that stuff but that has absolutely no bearing on what price is going to do zero has nothing to do with it, the markets gonna go |
| 105 | 00:20:33 --> 00:20:42 | for liquidity above or below the marketplace on a time based delivery. That means it's going to wait to a specific time of day where there will be a macro, |
| 106 | 00:20:42 --> 00:20:53 | that's exactly what was going on in my entry. Why did you enter before 10 o'clock? Well, I'm not trying to trade a silver bullet. If I have another model |
| 107 | 00:20:53 --> 00:21:00 | that gives me an entry. If this would have been traded to as an immersion fair Vega guess what it would have been, like I said earlier, I would have traded |
| 108 | 00:21:00 --> 00:21:08 | that I would have entered on my first entry there. If it would have came back down and traded into that as a potential inversion fair Vega. Like I mentioned |
| 109 | 00:21:08 --> 00:21:16 | the beginning of this livestream, I would have used that because it was coupled with the potential bullish breaker here. my stop loss if I would have entered on |
| 110 | 00:21:16 --> 00:21:23 | that one, it would have been just below the consequent portion of this candlesticks tale, like right below there. That's where it would have been. |
| 111 | 00:21:26 --> 00:21:35 | But did it give it to me? No. Does that mean what closer screens, you know, don't do anything? Oh, you know or reverse go short, because you know, it didn't |
| 112 | 00:21:35 --> 00:21:45 | even light up. So let me get impulsive, like a gambler and think well, you know, I'm wrong there, let me just do the opposite. I've seen students, I've seen |
| 113 | 00:21:45 --> 00:21:55 | other people trading like that. And I did this as a 20 year old. In the early 90s. If I had a setup that I was looking for, and it didn't work, I wanted to |
| 114 | 00:21:55 --> 00:22:04 | abandon the whole idea and try to do something entirely different, that I had no understanding about none. And I talked about that not in last Twitter space, but |
| 115 | 00:22:04 --> 00:22:19 | the last two prior to it. Where you can, you can really just orient yourself and leave and depart from what it is you're trying to do and become impulsive. And |
| 116 | 00:22:19 --> 00:22:28 | when motivation becomes impulsiveness. You're inviting ruin, you're inviting it, you're begging for it to happen. Because you can't control yourself. So you're |
| 117 | 00:22:28 --> 00:22:37 | basically going to do things that will invite you to lose money. So that way, that's your that's your braking mechanism. The only way you stop being impulsive |
| 118 | 00:22:37 --> 00:22:46 | is when the market takes it from you and the ability to trade, it's removed. That means losing so much that you're now too afraid to take another trade. Or |
| 119 | 00:22:46 --> 00:22:57 | if you have a funded account or funded account challenge you blow it hit the maximum loss or you completely disintegrate the entire account. Because your |
| 120 | 00:22:57 --> 00:23:08 | impulsiveness kicks in your motivation, everything that you looked for in a chart, it doesn't manifest itself or you're too impatient to wait for it. Then |
| 121 | 00:23:08 --> 00:23:17 | you try to predict and anticipate, yeah, if I get in now, it'll be a better entry. Because if I'm trying to buy it as a touch in the middle of this range, |
| 122 | 00:23:17 --> 00:23:27 | or the top of that range, and it's down here, I might as well just go ahead and bite. That's impulsiveness. So you're not following these PDAs. If you're doing |
| 123 | 00:23:27 --> 00:23:37 | that, you're not falling overflow, you're guessing on a breakout, I am not a breakout trader, I don't teach my students to be a breakout trader. So there's |
| 124 | 00:23:37 --> 00:23:45 | logic that is being employed here. It's not random. This is very specific things that I'm drawing your attention to, but I don't have the benefit of a lot of |
| 125 | 00:23:45 --> 00:23:56 | time to be able to build the idea of what it is I want to trade on. Because I'm pushing a button. I'm using a stop loss. I'm managing not just one entry, but |
| 126 | 00:23:56 --> 00:24:03 | I'm doing multiple entry scaling in and all of them have to make sense. This not just indiscriminately buying all at the same price, like you see many times with |
| 127 | 00:24:03 --> 00:24:13 | Mt four guys, they'll show you like the golden they're having 15 slots, and they're all only off by a 10th of a point. That's that's not someone trading |
| 128 | 00:24:13 --> 00:24:21 | with a model. That's a someone just pushing a lot of buttons that don't have a margin to be able to control that that type of trade. When I'm showing you my |
| 129 | 00:24:21 --> 00:24:31 | executions, I'm showing you that there's logic there is a real edge there. It's razor thin. It's highly precise. It's going to levels that are predetermined |
| 130 | 00:24:31 --> 00:24:45 | things I've already taught you. And until it gets to those specific levels I teach. We trust that it's going to keep knowing it but if I'm trading in an |
| 131 | 00:24:45 --> 00:24:56 | environment, okay that I'm predisposed to look for shorts, more than Long's I know that then the likelihood of the market is wanting to go up into that daily |
| 132 | 00:24:56 --> 00:25:04 | volume imbalance because if we're gonna go lower I think it would have went there today or if not today, if it would have consolidated today, then I would |
| 133 | 00:25:04 --> 00:25:15 | have been extremely bullish tomorrow morning. Did see this very trade here. But out the gate this morning, it ran right up there. And that's fine. Sometimes |
| 134 | 00:25:16 --> 00:25:23 | you'll anticipate certain things and you won't be able to get in on the trade. Don't get mad about it. You have to log it recorded like you saw it coming |
| 135 | 00:25:23 --> 00:25:33 | regardless. Market charts up like you would have done if you would have been in the trade and treat it as a learning experience. sugarcoat it, cheerlead |
| 136 | 00:25:33 --> 00:25:39 | yourself, congratulate yourself for seeing it before it happened, even if you really didn't. And that's what you do with your journal. That's exactly what you |
| 137 | 00:25:39 --> 00:25:49 | do with your journal. You don't use it as a depot for depression and regret and beating yourself up. It's constantly cheerlead yourself. Because when you go |
| 138 | 00:25:49 --> 00:25:57 | back and look at it on the weeks that you aren't doing well, it'll inspire you, because you're reading it in your own words. You were there, you saw the chart, |
| 139 | 00:25:57 --> 00:26:06 | even the time sight, your subconscious retains this as pseudo experience, and it filters out all the negativity. That's exactly how you journal if you're doing |
| 140 | 00:26:06 --> 00:26:17 | anything else, but that you're wasting time and ink. As much as it may be nice and neat. If you're not doing your journal like that you are wasting your time |
| 141 | 00:26:17 --> 00:26:26 | with it. Chances are, you're probably putting in things that are creating anchors to negativity, that you might not really see it as negative as you're |
| 142 | 00:26:26 --> 00:26:37 | recording it. But unless it's so sugary, sweet, and at risk of a diabetic coma, every time you read it, read it, you're not doing your journal right. And for |
| 143 | 00:26:37 --> 00:26:45 | the simple minded, okay, the people that don't really want to make an effort to learn how to do this, and they are just looking for something that throw all the |
| 144 | 00:26:45 --> 00:26:54 | time, they're not going to see the logic behind it, because, well, first of all, they're not going to do this. But the folks that do it, it's a coping mechanism |
| 145 | 00:26:54 --> 00:27:02 | in the early stages of your development that you absolutely need. Because you're not going to be on that high end of energy all the time, you're gonna have some |
| 146 | 00:27:02 --> 00:27:09 | difficulty, you're going to miss moves, you're going to do things incorrectly. And you're going to want to find an excuse to feel good, even though you didn't |
| 147 | 00:27:09 --> 00:27:18 | do the right thing then, or you want to find inspiration. And that's the trap that social media creates, where you chase these kids out here that are doing |
| 148 | 00:27:18 --> 00:27:27 | things that are outside of trading, not making money trading, but they're showing you an image. So it's important that you balance your attention in in |
| 149 | 00:27:27 --> 00:27:35 | early stages, until you learn how to train, you shouldn't give a shit what anybody else is doing. Me included, you should keep your your focus on yourself, |
| 150 | 00:27:35 --> 00:27:46 | mind your own business. And if you do that, you'll have all of the right tenants as a developing students that you're going to lean on until you acquire your own |
| 151 | 00:27:46 --> 00:27:57 | independent self. decision making where you're not being influenced by anyone else. And then once you're in that position, then if you want to waste time on |
| 152 | 00:27:57 --> 00:28:06 | social media and look at other people's stuff, or, you know, be entertained by all that stuff, the okay it's fine. But when you're not the quit, it's your your |
| 153 | 00:28:06 --> 00:28:16 | highly susceptible to be influenced negatively, it'll cause doubt because they actually would have what I teach, they're going to say there is no algorithm, |
| 154 | 00:28:16 --> 00:28:23 | which to me is laughable. If the markets aren't booking algorithmically, why is it doing all the things I'm pointing out exactly when I'm pointing them out? |
| 155 | 00:28:25 --> 00:28:36 | It's not, it's not on retail logic, it's on the principles of how these algorithms are going to communicate with one another. Okay, the booking the |
| 156 | 00:28:36 --> 00:28:46 | delivery algorithm, I don't control that you'll never control it, we will never influence it with our buying and selling pressure. And that will never ever |
| 157 | 00:28:46 --> 00:28:54 | happen. These markets are predetermined, they're scripted, they're gonna go up to a specific level, they're gonna go down to a system level, by time. It's all |
| 158 | 00:28:54 --> 00:29:05 | time delivered. It's all scripted, just like your TV Guide channel on your pay per view. Whenever like I don't have Comcast and I was gonna say Comcast, but we |
| 159 | 00:29:05 --> 00:29:14 | don't have Comcast. But if you go onto your, your pay programming, you go to your TV Guide channel, it tells you what's coming on what channel well, these |
| 160 | 00:29:14 --> 00:29:24 | markets run just like that. And anybody that says it's not like that is a fool. Because everything I'm pointing out to you, and I'm using when I'm doing these |
| 161 | 00:29:24 --> 00:29:33 | executions, and my students are using and they're making real money. They're using the logic around that they're not using it around anything else. Trend |
| 162 | 00:29:33 --> 00:29:41 | Lines, moving averages and all that bullshit. It has nothing to do with why price is gonna go up or down. How fast it's going to go. How long will it spend |
| 163 | 00:29:41 --> 00:29:51 | in that area before it starts to go the other direction? All those things are important factors but not every single time when a market rallies up. Is that a |
| 164 | 00:29:51 --> 00:30:06 | market maker somehow? No. So if I know I want to be in a market And I want to be engaging with algorithmic principles, things that I've taught you. And I don't |
| 165 | 00:30:06 --> 00:30:14 | have the time and luxury to be able to be in on the sell side of it. As much as I would have rather been on that. I had phone calls I had to deal with this |
| 166 | 00:30:14 --> 00:30:23 | morning, and people call me that for quotes on this repair, I needed my home. But I bought the buy side of the sell side model. In other words, this original |
| 167 | 00:30:23 --> 00:30:35 | consolidation in here, all this consolidation, we see it take the sell side here. And then it rallies through does the market come back to its original |
| 168 | 00:30:35 --> 00:30:47 | consolidation? No, because it would have done it here. It didn't do it. So is that strong or weak? If we're expecting prices to be drawn up into this daily |
| 169 | 00:30:47 --> 00:30:58 | volume imbalance? It's extremely strong. So my mind immediately adopt this. Okay, as we enter this area here, between these two levels, that bounce price |
| 170 | 00:30:58 --> 00:31:05 | range, if it's really going to have the influence and price that I think it should, which is Don't touch the lower end down here. Don't even look at this as |
| 171 | 00:31:06 --> 00:31:14 | support now because this used to be resistance. So people say they'll say that I'm teaching you a renamed complicated version of Support Resistance. Okay, |
| 172 | 00:31:14 --> 00:31:18 | well, you never would have got an entry there. How's that work for you? |
| 173 | 00:31:19 --> 00:31:30 | Okay, it didn't work. But I'm calling out very specific protocols around inefficiencies, I'm drawing your attention to very specific levels that would be |
| 174 | 00:31:30 --> 00:31:42 | classified as liquidity. The low old lows or single low is sell side liquidity or sell stops, above a single high or relatively equal highs or a group of |
| 175 | 00:31:42 --> 00:31:53 | highs, they're in close proximity to one another. That's by side liquidity or by stops. In between those two price points. There's going to be inefficiencies |
| 176 | 00:31:53 --> 00:32:04 | above market price, anything above it would be a premium array that would be constantly constituted as a inefficiency in price, it doesn't mean that it's |
| 177 | 00:32:04 --> 00:32:14 | only going to go up to there and not go past it to reach the buy side. Same thing between buy side and sell side on the lower end, the low market price, |
| 178 | 00:32:14 --> 00:32:23 | there's going to be inefficiencies down there. You may not see a setup that uses the inefficiency and you want to trade to the liquidity, there's nothing wrong |
| 179 | 00:32:23 --> 00:32:30 | with that. Like I said, I have students that are trading in the same market the same timeframe. And they're trading two different directions, and they're |
| 180 | 00:32:30 --> 00:32:39 | profitable. And it sounds like that can't possibly be, but that's exactly what's going on because all of them have their own unique model. They have used the |
| 181 | 00:32:39 --> 00:32:48 | things I've taught. And it kind of pisses in the cornflakes of the people that say, you know, a good testimonial of a good teacher is every student's going to |
| 182 | 00:32:48 --> 00:32:59 | have the same entry or the same trait. And I don't believe that all at all, I don't think that's a viable. Now, if I was only teaching one way, okay. Like if |
| 183 | 00:32:59 --> 00:33:10 | I if I had only taught the silver bullet at 10 o'clock till 11 o'clock in the morning, then on that, on that ground, yes, you could say okay, I would be |
| 184 | 00:33:10 --> 00:33:18 | classified as a good teacher, and communicated effectively because my students profoundly would have the same entry very close to the same entry and using the |
| 185 | 00:33:18 --> 00:33:28 | same target. But I've given you a litany of different ways to go in here and skin, the cat because you're all not going to see a silver bullet and see it as |
| 186 | 00:33:28 --> 00:33:36 | valuable, you're not going to understand it, you're not going to trust a pattern, you're not going to see it. So because I went through that same thing |
| 187 | 00:33:36 --> 00:33:47 | as a developing student at 20 years old, I had to have multiple ways because every time I missed a move, every single time I missed the move, I went in there |
| 188 | 00:33:47 --> 00:33:55 | and I beat the shit at the technicals to figure out what was happening right then in there that I didn't see what was going on. That caused me to lose real |
| 189 | 00:33:55 --> 00:34:09 | money, blow accounts, giving limb waldock More money. Every time I open up a new account, and I dusted it, I would go into those trades that I lost on. That's |
| 190 | 00:34:09 --> 00:34:20 | where you learn. You do not learn from your winning trades. You don't learn anything except for ego, pride, and greed. And those three lessons are ones that |
| 191 | 00:34:20 --> 00:34:31 | you want to avoid. All of your study needs to be on the basis of your losing trades. That you do not beat yourself up psychologically or emotionally and say |
| 192 | 00:34:31 --> 00:34:39 | Oh, I failed here is so horrible. I should have never done this. Be thankful that you still want to trade even though you did that. Because that's a trader. |
| 193 | 00:34:40 --> 00:34:48 | A trader that takes losses, drawdown and blows on an account but still feels like I'm gonna get this I'm gonna I'm gonna figure this out for myself in a |
| 194 | 00:34:48 --> 00:34:58 | model that allows me to be consistently profitable, if you can maintain that in the early stages of your development, that is critical because it's really |
| 195 | 00:34:58 --> 00:35:07 | really easy for weak minded individual but they don't really have their heart set on this. So they'll be more inclined to to simply take the first loss and |
| 196 | 00:35:07 --> 00:35:17 | say yes, it's too much for me, that's probably the best decision you've ever made. Because if you're not equipped to be in this come hell or high water on |
| 197 | 00:35:17 --> 00:35:23 | good days and the bad days, because the bad days are going to come, it's going to rain. And I'm not talking about lots of profits, like make it rain ICT, |
| 198 | 00:35:23 --> 00:35:34 | that's not the top mount on top now, it's gonna be a de luz where you know, it's bad. And you're, you know, you're the third monkey on the ramp, and it's |
| 199 | 00:35:34 --> 00:35:47 | starting to rain, okay, it's like, do or die. So you have to know, you have to absolutely know that you want to do this. And yet dial back how much you're |
| 200 | 00:35:47 --> 00:35:57 | pressing and pushing in the beginning, lots of leverage lots of account size, lots of contracts, or if you're trading Forex, lots, you're trying to get the |
| 201 | 00:35:57 --> 00:36:09 | results that would hopefully inspire you, if you're not inspired. By getting consistently five handles, on paper, consistently in the beginning, you will |
| 202 | 00:36:09 --> 00:36:18 | never be consistent at this. I swear to God Almighty, I'm telling you right now, anybody that goes into this, trying to just make a lot of money, right from the |
| 203 | 00:36:18 --> 00:36:30 | beginning, you're conditioning yourself to accept only homeruns you're cheating, you're treating yourself as a person that can't take a loss. So you're teaching |
| 204 | 00:36:30 --> 00:36:36 | yourself, when you do take a loss, you're going to blow your mind out, you're gonna be like, oh, man, you're going to try to do everything you can to fix it |
| 205 | 00:36:36 --> 00:36:45 | right away, which makes you insecure, which means you're going to have scared money and scared money makes no money. All these factors, these are all things |
| 206 | 00:36:45 --> 00:36:58 | that are paramount in every traders development, they have to be maintained, they have to be managed, they have to be parented. You can't let yourself just |
| 207 | 00:36:58 --> 00:37:05 | get out here and do whatever you feel like doing. That's not how you do it, you have to have rules, you have to have expectations placed in yourself that if |
| 208 | 00:37:05 --> 00:37:15 | this happens, I have to stop. If this happens, I have to turn the charts off. It doesn't mean that my model doesn't work. This means that I'm learning. And I |
| 209 | 00:37:15 --> 00:37:26 | have to allow myself to be able to just take one adverse result in the beginning. And see over time that that one adverse losing position or |
| 210 | 00:37:26 --> 00:37:36 | expectation that didn't come to fruition. Tomorrow when I tried to do something else using the same model, if it works, it cancels out that negative. And you |
| 211 | 00:37:36 --> 00:37:44 | don't allow yourself to make it bigger, where it's hard to get out of it. It's really important to have that mindset in the beginning. But I know everybody |
| 212 | 00:37:44 --> 00:37:50 | wants to make money real quick. They want to make a payout. They want to get profitable. They want to be on leaderboards, they want to do this, they want to |
| 213 | 00:37:50 --> 00:38:00 | do that. They want to challenge people, I got it, I understand all that stuff. But how are you paying your bills? Are you just meeting it right now are barely |
| 214 | 00:38:00 --> 00:38:09 | getting it. If you want to use these markets like that, you have to treat it just like a business. And businesses are just simply not out there taking wild |
| 215 | 00:38:09 --> 00:38:21 | crazy risks. Well, well, with all the silly shit they've been trying to do recently an advertisement I don't know, probably not a good analogy. But like, |
| 216 | 00:38:23 --> 00:38:33 | oh man, but we're looking at a mindset that you have to have. Okay, and understanding that if the market is likely to go lower, and I've been calling it |
| 217 | 00:38:33 --> 00:38:43 | while we're wanting to see it go lower. If we have these higher timeframe levels like that daily volume and bounce up here. Okay, now your chart is not on your |
| 218 | 00:38:43 --> 00:38:50 | screens, not frozen. I've been jawboning over this. But this is the important stuff I wanted to get out of the way. Because I know as we get into other stuff, |
| 219 | 00:38:50 --> 00:38:57 | technically, you'll be more inclined to pay attention then. So I want to do all the boring stuff that you're more likely to zone out in the beginning. Because |
| 220 | 00:38:57 --> 00:39:05 | this is that this portion of the discussion today was the most important. Everything else I want to talk about, and how I used to trade all this stuff |
| 221 | 00:39:05 --> 00:39:13 | here. And what I think tomorrow is going to do that's secondary. But doesn't feel that way. In the beginning when you're when you don't know what you're |
| 222 | 00:39:13 --> 00:39:20 | doing. You don't know what you're looking for. You want to be in the charts give me the gizmo gives me Give me the technique that the concept is going to get me |
| 223 | 00:39:20 --> 00:39:31 | into a trade get me in a trade where I can only do a one point stop. Give me a method where I don't have to use a stop loss ICT that's the mentality that new |
| 224 | 00:39:31 --> 00:39:41 | people have coming to me. And you can see I have a stoploss in my trades and managing it effectively. And every time I add a new position and pyramid that |
| 225 | 00:39:41 --> 00:39:51 | trade larger, it has to be considered and I have to weigh out all that stuff on a one minute chart and still have something in here that's loosely annotated so |
| 226 | 00:39:51 --> 00:40:00 | that way you can see okay, I'm drawing your attention to something right now. When I'm drawing this here, the sphere Vega and went down and touched it or |
| 227 | 00:40:01 --> 00:40:09 | watch the recording. And then this down closed candle, I was looking at the midpoint of this candle right in here. What is the what would be the middle of |
| 228 | 00:40:09 --> 00:40:17 | that down close candle? If that's a bullish order block, what's the middle called? Mirror, I was talking about this inefficient tongue twister. This |
| 229 | 00:40:17 --> 00:40:28 | inefficiency down here of the midpoint of inefficiency, or a actual gap is consequent curtailment. It's the midpoint, the differentiation between an order |
| 230 | 00:40:28 --> 00:40:38 | block, which is a real range that has been offered liquidity where the range is closed with a body like this, or here, the midpoint of that is mean threshold. |
| 231 | 00:40:39 --> 00:40:51 | So that that's the two distinguishing factors that make up the midpoint. If you grab a fib and you drop it on that specific candle right there, make it a little |
| 232 | 00:40:51 --> 00:40:52 | bit bigger. |
| 233 | 00:40:57 --> 00:41:07 | That midpoint levels right here. Okay. You see how we went through it? Does the body disregard that midpoint? No. Can it cross over that? Yes. What do we call |
| 234 | 00:41:07 --> 00:41:17 | that mohawk. Just like when you're cutting your grass and you miss the the edge and you create that little titles, small section of not price, but grass, we |
| 235 | 00:41:17 --> 00:41:28 | gotta go back over top of that, use colored outside the lines and they gotta go. Yeah. If you're like me, I have to Amelie go fix it. Okay, but in trading, you |
| 236 | 00:41:28 --> 00:41:39 | have to allow it to be there. Just allow it. Okay. So while we have very specific levels, the bodies of the candles are telling you the narrative. So |
| 237 | 00:41:39 --> 00:41:47 | yes, it does go down below midpoint of that. Okay. And when I first started teaching my order block theory, when I talked about mean threshold, everybody |
| 238 | 00:41:47 --> 00:41:53 | would think, Okay, well, I can put my stop loss rate blooming threshold, and it shouldn't hit my stop loss. And then because they don't know what they're doing |
| 239 | 00:41:53 --> 00:42:00 | and trying to write books, or they're trying to make courses and mentorships all around it, and you can't trade with it and be showing in in their own hands |
| 240 | 00:42:00 --> 00:42:09 | working. They joined the bandwagon that stuff's made up. It's it's conjecture, it's not real, it's fraud. It's renamed something else, you know, but if it was |
| 241 | 00:42:09 --> 00:42:19 | renamed, Why can't someone else do it too. That's the that the argument keep making as a retort to that. If this is all rebranded stuff, don't call it my |
| 242 | 00:42:19 --> 00:42:30 | stuff, still do what I do, in the picking it do it. So there's something else going on there. And I'm teaching it to you, but it's very, very dense. It's not |
| 243 | 00:42:30 --> 00:42:40 | a lot of watered down easy 123 techniques, it takes a lot of, of a paradigm shift really to, to depart from what you think you know about price and what the |
| 244 | 00:42:40 --> 00:42:54 | markets are taught as a support resistance, or supply and demand a white golf a harmonic and Elliot wave again, Hurst are all these bullshit excuses for people |
| 245 | 00:42:54 --> 00:43:04 | to push a button. That's not really what's going on behind price. So what I had to create his own language for my kids to understand what's going on, and I've |
| 246 | 00:43:04 --> 00:43:14 | made that language public. So when we are anticipating specific levels to be traded to, we're not expecting and demanding that it stops on a dime right then |
| 247 | 00:43:14 --> 00:43:30 | and there now, can it do it? Yes. And when it does, it's a fascinating study. But it's not important. This level here 14,422 even see the zeros. So 22, even |
| 248 | 00:43:30 --> 00:43:40 | in the low on this candle comes in at 19.75. So it's less than two and a half handles. Now, if you're going to lose your mind, or a two and a half handles, |
| 249 | 00:43:40 --> 00:43:50 | but you expect it to be respecting that level. You have to have a stoploss that's going to at least allow for that mo Hawking, that little push beyond the |
| 250 | 00:43:50 --> 00:44:02 | level of where we expect the real turning point. The real turn price, is it happening and justified and confirmed with the bodies of the candles here, here |
| 251 | 00:44:03 --> 00:44:13 | and here? Absolutely. That's exactly what I was watching when I'm still in the trade. I want to see does it keep supporting that? It does. Then it rallies |
| 252 | 00:44:13 --> 00:44:20 | through. Now, this range here. I'll just log on this fib |
| 253 | 00:44:26 --> 00:44:32 | and again, I'm just eyeballing it. I'm going to counsel you to do this with the actual levels that you're going to get on your daily chart which we'll drop up |
| 254 | 00:44:33 --> 00:44:40 | into. After we get through all the boring intraday noise the |
| 255 | 00:44:46 --> 00:44:55 | here's my fib level, you want to take a screenshot of that. I always toss this out there as a as a caveat interchangeably when I want to look at the TGIF, |
| 256 | 00:44:56 --> 00:45:08 | which is a 20 30% of the weekly range if I anticipate that Being there are a factor for Thursday into Friday's trading. I'll change this 0.25 to two simply |
| 257 | 00:45:08 --> 00:45:20 | this. Okay? And then that would be the 20% or 30% levels on the weekly candlestick. But because I only concern myself with that, when it's viable, it's |
| 258 | 00:45:20 --> 00:45:29 | not every single week different, you're gonna be able to do that. Because if the markets reaching for a target on higher timeframe weekly or daily, it still |
| 259 | 00:45:29 --> 00:45:39 | could be closing very heavy on the lows while it's bearish in that have much of a retracement at all. But if we get to targets that are intermediate term or |
| 260 | 00:45:39 --> 00:45:51 | high timeframe, then TGIF absolutely as much as 40% can be a factor for Friday's trading, or late Thursday afternoon going into Friday's trading. But TGIF is |
| 261 | 00:45:51 --> 00:46:02 | just a scenario that requires in itself also an understanding of what price has done to warrant that potential retracement. Because if the markets really, |
| 262 | 00:46:02 --> 00:46:14 | really bearish, you don't want to be trying to do what to TGIF, expecting some kind of a late week rally trying to get to 20 to 30%. Because if it's really, if |
| 263 | 00:46:14 --> 00:46:24 | it's really bearish, it's it's not going to go to 20 is going to keep dropping and end up closing on a newer low or lower low right for the week. So it's a lot |
| 264 | 00:46:24 --> 00:46:32 | of things you have to balance. And again, this that's what makes neophytes these traders that come to me, they don't know very much about anything. And they get |
| 265 | 00:46:32 --> 00:46:39 | frustrated, because it seems like there's always something new to learn that there's always gonna be something new to learn about you. I'm learning something |
| 266 | 00:46:39 --> 00:46:46 | new about myself all the time. But I'm not learning anything new about price. I'm not learning anything new about the markets. That shit stopped decades ago, |
| 267 | 00:46:47 --> 00:46:58 | I learned constantly how I interpret price. What am I doing? That's not what I should be doing and what, what are those catalysts? What are those things, it's |
| 268 | 00:46:58 --> 00:47:08 | causing me to second guess my own rules, because I'm trying to be even me impulsive. And I have to address those things. So in the beginning, you have a |
| 269 | 00:47:08 --> 00:47:14 | whole lot of that stuff going on that you don't think it's an issue, you think it's the thing you're trying to learn or the person you're learning from, |
| 270 | 00:47:14 --> 00:47:22 | because you're trying to find fault outside of yourself. And you have to be absolutely responsible as a trader, if you're not responsible with your own |
| 271 | 00:47:22 --> 00:47:33 | results. That means even if you follow someone's methodology, even if you follow someone else's trade signal, even if you piggyback 100%. That's your fault. If |
| 272 | 00:47:33 --> 00:47:42 | you lose money, that is your fault. And guess what, it's all your credit, when you make money. It's not that person you followed. It's not the person you |
| 273 | 00:47:42 --> 00:47:51 | learned from you took that initiative, you took that risk, so all the credit is yours. But at the same time, all the shit on that spoon, swallow, okay, you take |
| 274 | 00:47:51 --> 00:48:00 | that bite because you did it to yourself. And that's the part that people don't want to accept. But I constantly tell you, this is what's required as a trader, |
| 275 | 00:48:00 --> 00:48:09 | you're going to eat shit, that's just the way it is. Sometimes it just tastes better other days when you pull yourself out of it. But there's going to be |
| 276 | 00:48:09 --> 00:48:16 | days, there's going to be weeks, there's gonna be months, there's going to be years that you didn't do as well. And it's normal to anticipate that allow for |
| 277 | 00:48:16 --> 00:48:27 | that in the beginning. But each year going forward, it should be better. But you shouldn't be expecting to get rich overnight. That is simply not possible for |
| 278 | 00:48:27 --> 00:48:37 | some of you that think that it's going to actually happen for you. It's not because you don't know what you're going to do to unwind yourself. But I mean, I |
| 279 | 00:48:37 --> 00:48:50 | talked about top, that little TGIF nugget in there. So this is why generally looks like here. So 75% and 25%. Okay, that's what's been toggled in halfway |
| 280 | 00:48:50 --> 00:49:00 | point. And in the high and low. That's what this is referencing. These are all standard deviations. I interchangeably work with these levels here to see if |
| 281 | 00:49:00 --> 00:49:08 | there is a confluence of other PDAs if I'm looking at a timeframe, all that stuff will be in a book. And it's basically an amplification of what I've |
| 282 | 00:49:08 --> 00:49:16 | already taught in month fives core content. So you don't really you don't need to buy my book, okay, I'm not trying to sell the book to make money. I could |
| 283 | 00:49:16 --> 00:49:26 | give two shits, if you buy I don't care. Okay, I'm just putting this stuff in prints. That way. Everybody can know it came from me. So the idea of these |
| 284 | 00:49:26 --> 00:49:34 | quadrants here, which is not quarters theory, this level up here, all this shaded area here quarters three would have never even referred to that. This is |
| 285 | 00:49:34 --> 00:49:44 | where I believe that price was going to draw to from down in here. Okay, so if this level from here, all the way up best case scenario, Terminus would be the |
| 286 | 00:49:44 --> 00:49:57 | high end up here 14,004 67 and a half. So that range is what I think that price will traverse from here to here if I'm right. If I'm accurate enough, I'm dialed |
| 287 | 00:49:57 --> 00:50:08 | in on what I believe the algorithm is going to do. It's Want to reprice to the high that now as a trader? Do I demand? Do I insist that it gets to the upper |
| 288 | 00:50:08 --> 00:50:20 | end the upper echelon of the best of the best exit? No. That's what made me frustrated. And that's what frustrates me still today with my exits, because I'm |
| 289 | 00:50:20 --> 00:50:31 | trying to crack that part of it. Because there are some times where the market will just get really, really close. And I'm gonna show you that here that, but |
| 290 | 00:50:31 --> 00:50:52 | denies me because I wanted to put my limit order one tick above that may screw up feeling a little bit. That higher dear 14,004 676 and a half, I wanted my |
| 291 | 00:50:52 --> 00:51:06 | limit order to be at 76.75. I couldn't, I wouldn't have got to feel it would have denied me by two ticks. And that's what and you've watched me do that this |
| 292 | 00:51:06 --> 00:51:18 | year. You've watched me do a trade where I've taken Alliance portion of the trade off. And I had a limit order where it denied me just by one tick. It's |
| 293 | 00:51:18 --> 00:51:25 | going to happen to you. That's the That's my pursuit. Like, what am I going to do when I'm no longer doing social media no longer YouTube no longer don't |
| 294 | 00:51:25 --> 00:51:37 | anything. I'm going to try to see if I can do a little bit more with my time, but I'm gonna going to spend all my days obviously doing it. But I want to try |
| 295 | 00:51:37 --> 00:51:47 | to see if I can spend a little bit more time on distracted to try to refine that. Like, I want my exits to be like my entries, which are fucking phenomenal. |
| 296 | 00:51:47 --> 00:51:58 | Okay, like they're literally they're poetic. They're scientific. They're literally based on things that no one can look at this being done. And I'm not |
| 297 | 00:51:58 --> 00:52:05 | showing you something after the fact what Market Replay. Okay, I'm not using Market Replay, where as a student of mine, and I think you're trying to sell the |
| 298 | 00:52:05 --> 00:52:15 | idea that you took a trade on Twitter, and you can clearly see that there is no time underneath the price. And it's only ticking two times when each candle |
| 299 | 00:52:15 --> 00:52:22 | opens up. That's Market Replay. Even though you're zoomed in and trying to hide that part, you need to delete that tweet. Okay, that's, that's, that's not, |
| 300 | 00:52:22 --> 00:52:30 | that's not the type of stuff that I inspire. And I'm going to call bullshit when I see it. And my students, they should say the same thing respectfully. But that |
| 301 | 00:52:30 --> 00:52:42 | was not a trade that was not taken by you. So don't do those types of things. But I prove with live executions. Okay, this stuff's predictable. It's happening |
| 302 | 00:52:42 --> 00:52:51 | on a time based schedule, things that are taught you with macros and things. There's chapters in those three books I'm putting out, that will give you more |
| 303 | 00:52:51 --> 00:53:00 | insights. But I want you to understand this, even though I'm going to tell you everything that I know about them, it's going to take you years working with |
| 304 | 00:53:00 --> 00:53:11 | them for you to find how it works for you and your model. They do not teach you direction. I'm gonna say it again, because I'm breaking hearts right now. But I |
| 305 | 00:53:11 --> 00:53:24 | want you to understand a macro is when the algorithm will start doing a specific short order of scripts, where it will do something to do something else. Okay. |
| 306 | 00:53:25 --> 00:53:36 | You still require the burden is still in your hands to know where the markets going to go. If you don't know where it's going to go higher or lower to a very |
| 307 | 00:53:36 --> 00:53:49 | specific level. Now was I write about it going into this daily volume imbalance? Absolutely. Was I precise? Fuck no, I wasn't precise because they went outside |
| 308 | 00:53:49 --> 00:54:01 | of it. That's the part that drives me crazy. The OCD in me, I need to know how I can clarify that part right there. I want this cracked. By my own hand, I want |
| 309 | 00:54:01 --> 00:54:12 | to be able to do that. I might not be able to do it. I'm comfortable with the idea that if I never do it, and the Lord takes me home, and I've never been |
| 310 | 00:54:12 --> 00:54:21 | successful during that part of it, okay, fine. I've had a lot of fun trying to figure it out. But it's also been a great source of frustration for me because I |
| 311 | 00:54:21 --> 00:54:27 | believe if I have given myself enough time, I will figure that part out too. |
| 312 | 00:54:29 --> 00:54:38 | But I might not and if I don't, I've done enough. And it's in the hands of my students now that they are doing phenomenal, crazy levels of precision crazy |
| 313 | 00:54:38 --> 00:54:47 | levels of income and profit. And it's a wide array from different walks of life all around the world. And I'm so proud of all of you. And I can't wait to see |
| 314 | 00:54:47 --> 00:54:58 | what you all do. When I'm not alone longer, distracting you talking to you giving you something else to look at. You have enough but those macros they're |
| 315 | 00:54:58 --> 00:55:06 | just times when the markets going to do something And now, let me add a little bit of value to this live stream. Even though we haven't come off this chart |
| 316 | 00:55:06 --> 00:55:15 | yet, I've literally given you like two chapters equivalent, if it was on a book, that's what I've given you here. These are details, these are things these are |
| 317 | 00:55:15 --> 00:55:26 | conceptual ideas, ways of interpretation, that are not something that's easily communicated in a book. Where is if I talk about overcharge, and I'm showing to |
| 318 | 00:55:26 --> 00:55:34 | you live, and you watch me trade something this morning with this very logic, it's not reaching back in hindsight in some kind of frivolous made up |
| 319 | 00:55:34 --> 00:55:43 | conjecture. It's something that's really there that's been taught to you already. And you see it panning out, when you watch that recording, where I'm |
| 320 | 00:55:43 --> 00:55:51 | trading all this move from here to here. And I'm highlighting this little shaded area here. My students that have been with me knew exactly what I was doing |
| 321 | 00:55:51 --> 00:56:03 | here, as I was drawing that I want to see price, find somewhat support and respect of that level. If it were to break below that, then it's probably going |
| 322 | 00:56:03 --> 00:56:11 | to dig into here for this boss, Annabelle sells on efficiency, which would have been in many ways, somewhat of a problematic situation for me, but in my mind, |
| 323 | 00:56:12 --> 00:56:20 | okay, here's a big paradigm shift. Okay, this is the part that doesn't get easily communicated. In the pages of a book. It needs to be done, it needs to be |
| 324 | 00:56:20 --> 00:56:30 | shown with a real example, live executed, where the beginning of the trade to the end, okay? For people that says this can be done with 20 different laptops, |
| 325 | 00:56:30 --> 00:56:39 | just try to do that. I want to see you do it. Nobody's still doing it. But this area in here, because of its being Monday, on a Non Farm Payroll week, it's the |
| 326 | 00:56:39 --> 00:56:49 | beginning of a new month, end of an old month. And that's a Monday that I will be trading. And a characteristic of that Monday is that it's going to be out the |
| 327 | 00:56:49 --> 00:56:59 | gate real quick trying to get somewhere. Don't take my word for what I just said, do not do that. I want you to go back and look at the markets that you |
| 328 | 00:56:59 --> 00:57:12 | trade. Look at the Monday of Non Farm Payroll. So Non Farm Payroll weeks, one Monday, generally there's a lot of excitement right out the gate. Nine o'clock |
| 329 | 00:57:12 --> 00:57:23 | to 930. Here's a lot of excitement, lots of excitement. It's designed to be that way. Because it gets people excited about the whole week because already people |
| 330 | 00:57:23 --> 00:57:33 | that are just warming up to the idea of trading. They hear about this myth, this legend of people making lots of money on Non Farm Payroll, it's big moves on non |
| 331 | 00:57:33 --> 00:57:43 | farm payrolls, NFP baby for life. And then they get up there and the rector as you know, they go out there and do their own ass in and they don't ever want to |
| 332 | 00:57:43 --> 00:57:51 | touch on Non Farm Payroll ever again. But there's always like PT Barnum said there's a sucker born every second there's someone coming in here buying into |
| 333 | 00:57:51 --> 00:58:05 | that bullshit that that move on 830 on a Friday, once a month is big, easy money. And it's a big easy home hit is what it is. You're playing Russian |
| 334 | 00:58:05 --> 00:58:18 | roulette. He says if you don't know you're doing but while everybody else while all the retail Joe's retail Rick's all these average folks that to simply want |
| 335 | 00:58:18 --> 00:58:32 | to go here and just plunk their money down with no logic behind it. I'm gonna gamble all their attention is where Friday NFP not for professionals. So if |
| 336 | 00:58:32 --> 00:58:44 | Friday is really not the professional day, when is the professional day or days, Monday and Tuesday. Now, when is when the when is Wednesday a factor for smart |
| 337 | 00:58:44 --> 00:58:57 | money to be using that up until nine o'clock in the morning. If it's been consolidated on Tuesday or it was a limp wristed approach to delivery on Monday |
| 338 | 00:58:57 --> 00:59:05 | hasn't a whole wasn't a whole lot of excitement moving around on Monday. Then you roll into Tuesday expecting Okay, we're gonna see some fireworks in your |
| 339 | 00:59:05 --> 00:59:15 | opening bell are leading into opening bell 930 equities Forex everything's gonna move around real nice. But if it doesn't do it on Tuesday, that means you're |
| 340 | 00:59:15 --> 00:59:26 | going to have a really fast and wild Wednesday morning session that will become choppy and uncertain rate as we go into the launch our new york lunch hour after |
| 341 | 00:59:26 --> 00:59:34 | 11 o'clock on Wednesday. That's not complicated, folks. That's not complicated. That's not a complication. That's not something you can't figure out how to use. |
| 342 | 00:59:35 --> 00:59:42 | It's something that's going to repeat every single month. And because I know that there's gonna be a lot of excitement on Monday. I want to be in there |
| 343 | 00:59:42 --> 00:59:56 | hunting on Monday. accepting the fact that okay, it might go stale, or I might take a loss. Okay, fine. If I had read wrong on Monday, I know that the |
| 344 | 00:59:56 --> 01:00:07 | likelihood of me getting back a loss on a Tuesday On that day is easy. So it's worth it for me to take that risk on a Monday, it's worth it for me to push in |
| 345 | 01:00:07 --> 01:00:14 | there, and pyramid a position, it's worth it for me to do that, because I've been doing it long enough, I've seen it, I have the data behind it. I've seen |
| 346 | 01:00:14 --> 01:00:26 | this happen for decades. for you today, you're learning about for the first time. And I'm reminding you don't take my word for it. Go into your charts and |
| 347 | 01:00:26 --> 01:00:34 | study it. collect the data yourself. Because once you have it in your own hands, and you see it, no one's going to tell you otherwise, no one's going to |
| 348 | 01:00:34 --> 01:00:45 | discourage you with their bullshit posts and made a bullshit, okay, you can see it for yourself. That's important. As a trader, you have to have your own |
| 349 | 01:00:45 --> 01:00:56 | evidence, you have to be able to see this in your own charts, being able to say, okay, yeah, I see this panning out. But don't be in a hurry to see that panning |
| 350 | 01:00:56 --> 01:01:02 | out in your charts. And then, okay, I seen it one time, now I gotta go out and try to deal with a live account, or I got to try to deal with a funded account. |
| 351 | 01:01:02 --> 01:01:09 | That's the mistake that 99% of my students and everybody else's students, when they think they have been introduced to something enough to let me go out and |
| 352 | 01:01:09 --> 01:01:21 | try it. That's not what you want to be doing that in these markets, you don't, you don't want to do those types of things. That is a recipe for failure. And I |
| 353 | 01:01:21 --> 01:01:34 | try to do everything I can to build you up, psychologically, equipped you mentally. So that way, you don't fall victim to the traps of fear and greed. And |
| 354 | 01:01:34 --> 01:01:46 | even if you aren't profitable, don't go into the pride and ego aspects of it. Because when you start doing that, any small, little loss will feel monumental. |
| 355 | 01:01:46 --> 01:01:58 | And you're going to make it bigger than even your audience would. So there's a, there's a tight Wire Act, that you have to walk your entire career as a trader |
| 356 | 01:01:58 --> 01:02:11 | until you stop doing this. You're walking a tightrope, and it's so easily done, that you fall off, you can fall off, due to one of your strengths. You want him |
| 357 | 01:02:11 --> 01:02:24 | to see it coming. And social media is a perfect apparatus to bring that out of all of us. All of us have that tendency. You want to defend your position, you |
| 358 | 01:02:24 --> 01:02:35 | want to be little someone else because you're miserable. You want to compete against somebody else's methodology, their service, their way of interpretation. |
| 359 | 01:02:36 --> 01:02:45 | You just want to be significant in all those types of things that to withdraw social media was devised for division. So inviting that into treating is |
| 360 | 01:02:45 --> 01:02:56 | literally stupid as shit, it's dumb. But if you have a service, if you have a means of operating something, then yeah, I mean, it's a tool, but treat it as a |
| 361 | 01:02:56 --> 01:03:07 | tool, not a not an arena to invite toxicity, because it's easily done, where it'll be distracting to you. And you'll start measuring things that are not |
| 362 | 01:03:07 --> 01:03:18 | really all that important. And they'll distract you from the things that are. So when I'm drawing out on these charts, like this fear value gap in here. In my |
| 363 | 01:03:18 --> 01:03:26 | mind, what I was interpreting was, does price want to react off of that. And if it does, I want to see how fast it can reach to the lower quadrant, which is |
| 364 | 01:03:26 --> 01:03:33 | this level here. So if we measured from the low this blue shaded area all the way to the top and divide that in half, that's this level here. That's |
| 365 | 01:03:33 --> 01:03:36 | consequent encroachment, because it's an inefficiency on the daily chart. |
| 366 | 01:03:38 --> 01:03:50 | The lower quadrant, I want to see how fast we reach up into that, whenever I have an inefficiency, whenever there's an imbalance it any degree of a draw, or |
| 367 | 01:03:50 --> 01:04:00 | it's ahead of a target that I'm reaching for. But I think it's ultimately gonna go through some kind of let me make sure I see this correctly. Let's say that I |
| 368 | 01:04:00 --> 01:04:09 | was wanting to see 14,500, which would have been outside the scope of the price range that's being shown here. Okay, let's say I believe that that's that what I |
| 369 | 01:04:09 --> 01:04:20 | want to see happen this morning. And then we also have this daily volume imbalance, still, I would not be so inclined to take all my profits off in here. |
| 370 | 01:04:21 --> 01:04:30 | I would take about half and an 80% would be up here and then see if I can reach that target. But because this is my target, I want to see it trade up into this |
| 371 | 01:04:30 --> 01:04:41 | area here. I want to see how fast we trade up into that lower quadrant does it do so real quick? Well, look what it's doing here. It's hitting the low end of |
| 372 | 01:04:41 --> 01:04:52 | it here. And consolidating. Now as soon as it does that, I'm looking at my immediately what's the closest proximity discount array? It's this order block. |
| 373 | 01:04:53 --> 01:05:02 | But we're also trading real close to what would be mean threshold of that so I have to make an allowance for what There's got to be three PD arrays, three PD |
| 374 | 01:05:02 --> 01:05:13 | arrays that every single time, I'm looking at prices and entry. Or if I'm moving my stop loss, I have to have something that's framing it where there's three PD |
| 375 | 01:05:13 --> 01:05:24 | arrays that would otherwise be used as an entry. If they're not respecting price, all three of them fail, then I'm wrong. That's where I'm placing my stop |
| 376 | 01:05:24 --> 01:05:35 | loss. Every single time, I'm moving my stop in profit, never opening up wider. When I added a pyramid of entry, sometimes it'll make the stop loss move a |
| 377 | 01:05:35 --> 01:05:45 | little bit. And then I quickly adjust it to where the risk needs to be based on three to three specific PD arrays. So if we're looking at this down close candle |
| 378 | 01:05:45 --> 01:05:56 | here, and on this candle here, I'm watching price. While I'm not using it as an entry, because we're in the target, the low end of where I was seen as a draw, |
| 379 | 01:05:56 --> 01:06:03 | which is the daily volume imbalance at blue shaded area. We can't take a partial, I'm sorry, we can't take a pyramid there. We got to be in the mindset |
| 380 | 01:06:03 --> 01:06:17 | of taking partials. So as it's digging in, to this blue shaded area, I'm measuring how much time it takes to get to the first lower quadrant. So we we |
| 381 | 01:06:17 --> 01:06:25 | hit it here on the low end of that blue shaded area we consolidated. We have one discount rate here. How is that a discount array? If we're so far away from your |
| 382 | 01:06:25 --> 01:06:35 | entry? Because this is unrealized up here, the upper part of that shaded area. Remember, I was talking about this as a implied dealing range, it means it's not |
| 383 | 01:06:35 --> 01:06:44 | there yet. So if I'm buying down here, and I think that the mark is likely to draw all up your best case scenario, which is Terminus level of 14,467, and half |
| 384 | 01:06:45 --> 01:06:55 | the upper quadrant or upper level of that blue shaded area. That's what I anticipate seeing price to do. I want to see it traverse from here, all the way |
| 385 | 01:06:55 --> 01:07:05 | up to here. And I'm willing to submit to the time that it takes to get there. But is it logical? Is it sound money management and trade management? For me to |
| 386 | 01:07:05 --> 01:07:16 | just simply demand? That's all I get out of the trade? Hell no. No, absolutely not. And especially Moreover, if you're a new student, if you're someone that's |
| 387 | 01:07:16 --> 01:07:27 | new, start trying to learn how to do this. You want to have logical places predetermined where you're going to take partials off. And be comfortable doing |
| 388 | 01:07:27 --> 01:07:39 | that. Because taking wins with logic that repeats. Number one, it doesn't feel like luck. Because if you're following a process or a protocol, and it's giving |
| 389 | 01:07:39 --> 01:07:51 | you the the outcome that's measurable and it's gainful for you. That's not luck. You're conditioned yourself to anticipate following a procedure a process |
| 390 | 01:07:51 --> 01:08:03 | protocols, a model will yield you results that are favorable. Versus, oh, last time, my elbow hurt like this, and it was raining in the Euro went up 50 points |
| 391 | 01:08:03 --> 01:08:11 | that, you know, I could probably get 50 points today, if I go in here and trade debt, that's impulsive. That's stupid in this many times what people do, where |
| 392 | 01:08:11 --> 01:08:18 | they sit down from the chart and like, Oh, I got time to do something. Oh, it looks like it might go up there. Why would it go up there? I don't know. I just |
| 393 | 01:08:18 --> 01:08:25 | got a hunch. It just feels like it might go up here. And then you find yourself pushing the button getting in those trades. And you're wondering why you're |
| 394 | 01:08:25 --> 01:08:35 | losing. Because you're not following any logic. You're not using any basis at all, upon which the market itself will refer to as a reason or a catalyst for |
| 395 | 01:08:35 --> 01:08:46 | price to go higher. That's what I'm teaching you. I'm teaching you technical science, this shit does not just happen because I'm pushing a button. I'm |
| 396 | 01:08:46 --> 01:08:53 | pushing the button because I know it's gonna happen. That's the paradigm shift that has to take place. And I know there's a lot of people out there, you know, |
| 397 | 01:08:53 --> 01:09:01 | some goop are out there. You know, there's no edge. There's no edge. Motherfucker. I'm out here with twin katanas swinging them every fucking week. |
| 398 | 01:09:01 --> 01:09:11 | laser precision. There's no There's no more finer edge than what I'm showing. Okay, there's no finer edge than this. This fucking glass trophy shovel up your |
| 399 | 01:09:11 --> 01:09:20 | fucking ass. Go on there at Robins cup and we're gonna see who's got an edge. Okay. So many people in this industry have believed that they have something of |
| 400 | 01:09:20 --> 01:09:29 | significance because there's so many glad handing. Oh, well, you know, you have a title here. You haven't had a fuck your titles. Fuck all that bullshit. What |
| 401 | 01:09:29 --> 01:09:46 | are you able to do? Because doing a lot in this industry is like 20 to 30% a year. This was 18 Fucking percent just in this trade. Just the next fucking |
| 402 | 01:09:46 --> 01:09:56 | trade. And it was done poetically. With such a degree of precision, using the very things that I'm teaching and have already taught. These are things that my |
| 403 | 01:09:56 --> 01:10:07 | charter members they know these things, you know them because I made that content public on YouTube channel. And none of it hinges on anything else you've |
| 404 | 01:10:07 --> 01:10:16 | ever seen. Just because an area shaded doesn't mean it's a supply and demand zone. Sam site had never taught this kind of stuff. Chris Laurie didn't teach |
| 405 | 01:10:16 --> 01:10:26 | this kind of stuff. Okay, I'm just telling you, that's just the way it is. But you're not going to learn it real fast either. And I never said you would. I |
| 406 | 01:10:26 --> 01:10:34 | said, I would make it easy, I would make it easy for you to go through the process, which is me encouraging and constantly giving you examples of it, me |
| 407 | 01:10:34 --> 01:10:45 | using it, giving you something to study with. Because if I can't do it, then it doesn't exist. If there's no algorithm, that things I've talked about the things |
| 408 | 01:10:45 --> 01:10:55 | I've teach, and the things that I drone on about, like I'm doing here and on Twitter spaces, that wouldn't hold on you and it won't hold any water in my |
| 409 | 01:10:55 --> 01:11:10 | students wouldn't be able to find any efficacy in using it, but yet they are. So if there's an element of time, that's being a large influencing factor in when |
| 410 | 01:11:10 --> 01:11:23 | price is going to do something. Okay. It's important for you to understand where they are not trade on the basis of patterns for patterns sake. That that's not |
| 411 | 01:11:23 --> 01:11:35 | that's not the important here, the importance is, knowing what the market is drawing towards. Why should it have gone up into this blue shaded area at all |
| 412 | 01:11:35 --> 01:11:44 | today? Because we're extremely oversold. And we don't need an indicator to tell us that on a daily chart, it's been pressed down a lot. Or last week in from, |
| 413 | 01:11:44 --> 01:11:55 | you know, a month or so. It's gone down. We were looking for this very event to take place. We're not surprised by it. We didn't wake up last week and say, Man, |
| 414 | 01:11:55 --> 01:12:09 | look at this. Where'd this come from? Right? We outline quarterly shifts, that takes what months to develop in deliver. Now you might not have the ability to |
| 415 | 01:12:09 --> 01:12:16 | hold on to those types of trades. But even if you don't, you have to understand the benefit of knowing what it's likely to do on this higher timeframe, weekly |
| 416 | 01:12:16 --> 01:12:27 | and daily charts. It's important to know that, because it'll help you determine where the emphasis should be placed on your draw on liquidity in order to the |
| 417 | 01:12:27 --> 01:12:35 | trades that you're trying to frame. If they're inside of that logic. Whatever you think is going to happen on that weekly and daily chart. Guess classically |
| 418 | 01:12:35 --> 01:12:46 | defined, we can call it a top down perspective. Buying itself just because you you want to call or label a top down analysis, you still have to know where you |
| 419 | 01:12:46 --> 01:12:56 | get in. Because we can sit on the sidelines and embark and say, Well, this is everything else is this is this top down analysis. Everybody does that. I don't |
| 420 | 01:12:56 --> 01:13:06 | see everybody else doing this. I don't see, I see myself I see my students doing it. But outside of our country, I don't see anybody doing this. I'm not saying |
| 421 | 01:13:06 --> 01:13:14 | they can't have winning trades. I'm not. That's not what I said here. But to the degree of precision, why and when it's going to move like it's going and where |
| 422 | 01:13:14 --> 01:13:24 | it's going to know nobody else is doing it. Nobody else is doing it. Because there's no rhyme or reason outside of what I've taught, that causes price to go |
| 423 | 01:13:24 --> 01:13:40 | up or down at the time at which we anticipate an expected that's a macro, a macro are small little intervals in time. Okay, they're always 20 minutes. |
| 424 | 01:13:41 --> 01:13:52 | There's a 20 minute cycle, that it's specific time to the day if this macro is going to be employed, and there are times when it won't. That's where I'll get |
| 425 | 01:13:52 --> 01:14:06 | it wrong. I may have to sit in more drawdown and I'm willing to and what you measure and whether a drawdown in a trade to see if it wants to move. Once it |
| 426 | 01:14:06 --> 01:14:14 | gets to the next level of what time is going to tell me it's gonna move forward. It's my stop loss or moves enough for me to say okay, I'm gonna take half the |
| 427 | 01:14:14 --> 01:14:26 | trade off, or close the trade. Now, just that statement alone takes five fucking chapters just to scratch the surface up because you want someone that can sit |
| 428 | 01:14:26 --> 01:14:35 | down here and say, give me a five minute trainer. How the fuck can anybody give you all the reasons why any one of those things could be considered for your |
| 429 | 01:14:35 --> 01:14:45 | train that you're in right now. It takes a lot of other supporting topics and experience having seen price action, but some of you are so new and entitlement |
| 430 | 01:14:45 --> 01:14:52 | minded. You think that you are owed everything the first single time you sit down with somebody and not just me anyone? Give it to me right now and I've |
| 431 | 01:14:52 --> 01:14:59 | already waited too long. When I've already told you this is going to take a lot of time. It's gonna take a lot of effort, energy, and it's going to be met with |
| 432 | 01:14:59 --> 01:15:09 | a A lot of adversities that most people aren't equipped to endure. But if you're willing to endure it, and study and stick with it, you will be able to see price |
| 433 | 01:15:09 --> 01:15:19 | in a way that nobody else does. They're still trying to climb around and make excuses about there is no algorithm. And the people, the old hats, they know, |
| 434 | 01:15:19 --> 01:15:29 | because they were in the floors, they were on the floor in the pits. And they know there's something different right now, something different going on. It's |
| 435 | 01:15:29 --> 01:15:43 | 100%, electronically controlled, where it was mainly controlled before still. Now it's gonna represent AI. It's been a, it's been AI before AI became a |
| 436 | 01:15:43 --> 01:15:54 | talking term. You can't argue with this, folks, you can deny it, there's nothing wrong with denying it. And you know, you can claim that it isn't there as much |
| 437 | 01:15:54 --> 01:16:06 | as you want to. But it doesn't change the fact that it is just the separation between these two candlesticks here. This is a volume imbalance, volume and |
| 438 | 01:16:06 --> 01:16:16 | balances the same thing that's shaded here in the blue area, that's on a daily chart, it's a larger range. Okay? Now, because this is this is the part where |
| 439 | 01:16:16 --> 01:16:24 | you write shit down, folks. But because you want to listen, or you're working or you're driving or doing something else, you fall asleep, you're not going to |
| 440 | 01:16:24 --> 01:16:31 | write this stuff down. And it's going to go right over your head. And other people are going to learn how to do this, but you were here listening to but you |
| 441 | 01:16:31 --> 01:16:46 | won't get it the the higher timeframe. The larger the the imbalances, or like in this case, the volume imbalance, it's a larger range. The smaller the timeframe, |
| 442 | 01:16:46 --> 01:16:58 | the smaller the imbalance. So if we're going to be using a higher timeframe, for instance, like a four hour daily or weekly, I'm absolutely interested in two |
| 443 | 01:16:58 --> 01:17:11 | quadrants. Anything less than that I'm only interested in the low, the high and the consequent quadrant midpoint level. Because this is a daily volume |
| 444 | 01:17:11 --> 01:17:19 | imbalance, I want to know what that first quadrant is. And how fast is it reach up in there? It does it real quick and energetically. And what is it telling me? |
| 445 | 01:17:19 --> 01:17:31 | Was it telling you where to close on that candle? When it hit it? Would it tell you? Did it closed below it? Nope. closed above it. That is a signature. Okay, |
| 446 | 01:17:31 --> 01:17:38 | that's a signature. Lesson. I'm going to tell you something right now. And I know some of you don't want to believe this. You think it's all hokey bullshit, |
| 447 | 01:17:38 --> 01:17:56 | okay, some Tom Clancy bullshit. But it's not it's really real. The algorithm that delivers price, there is a class of trader that is actively among all of |
| 448 | 01:17:56 --> 01:18:07 | us. They're not out here trying to draw attention to themselves. They are cannibalizing everything. Okay. They have created high frequency trading |
| 449 | 01:18:07 --> 01:18:17 | algorithms to do a lot of what they do. And when these things like this happen, it tells their algorithm like I have enigma. Enigma is not what what books |
| 450 | 01:18:17 --> 01:18:29 | price, Enigma, it handshakes with the algorithm that delivers price. And what does that mean? My algorithm would see this close above that upper quadrant and |
| 451 | 01:18:29 --> 01:18:38 | say, Okay, now I can take a long if it trades down into a discount rate low. So it's going to have to go back through where are we at right now? We're here. So |
| 452 | 01:18:38 --> 01:18:49 | go back down. We have consequent question with this wick here. Opening of this order block mean threshold. So is it permissible to see price wick through mean |
| 453 | 01:18:49 --> 01:19:00 | threshold here, but not close? Yes. Does it do that? Yes. Does it close below mean thresholds? No. Does it close below the volume and bounce here? No. So |
| 454 | 01:19:00 --> 01:19:15 | where's price gonna go higher. Every other person that is deemed Smart Money, central bank level, cannibalizing traders, okay, they're out there doing these |
| 455 | 01:19:15 --> 01:19:26 | things. High frequency all day long. They're entering on this, because they see this was the qualifier to say, Okay, we're gonna go higher. Now, if it would |
| 456 | 01:19:26 --> 01:19:34 | have closed below this quadrant level there. They're not going to take that trade. They're not going to they're not going to be in it. Even if it does go a |
| 457 | 01:19:34 --> 01:19:40 | little bit higher here, it might go there and then roll right back out of it. That's why these things are important. That's why I'm teaching it to you. Those |
| 458 | 01:19:40 --> 01:19:49 | are the little telltale signs I call a signature that we're looking for in price. If it's not there, I'm not taking the trade. If it's not there, not |
| 459 | 01:19:49 --> 01:19:59 | holding the trade. If it's not there. I'm not going to reach for another objective to take a partial. Where's the next level in quadrant? It's the |
| 460 | 01:19:59 --> 01:20:06 | consequent question. It reaches energy and you're here. Where's the close on it? Above it? What's that telling you? It's going to keep fucking going up. Okay, |
| 461 | 01:20:06 --> 01:20:14 | it's going to keep going up that's logic folks. That's how it's done that's real fucking order flow save your bullshit level to bullshit. Okay? These ladders |
| 462 | 01:20:14 --> 01:20:25 | these Dom's, it's all horseshit. That is all gimmick it's fucking gimmick everything is measured and everything is time delivered everything is you |
| 463 | 01:20:25 --> 01:20:33 | honestly fucking think that these people are going to let their entire ability to get rich every single fucking day and control the every step of every |
| 464 | 01:20:33 --> 01:20:41 | financial institution every country all it's at the risk of all of us as speculators if we if we all collectively got together and we short sell it we |
| 465 | 01:20:41 --> 01:20:50 | can send this shit into oblivion right? Should you fucking believe just like people on Reddit just like being bullied that how did that work for them? How |
| 466 | 01:20:50 --> 01:21:02 | did that work? AMC we're gonna fuck that stock at you're not going to beat them. It's their fucking Casino. So you might as well warm up to the idea. It's |
| 467 | 01:21:02 --> 01:21:10 | beneficial that it's rigged. It's a good thing that's rigged. I wouldn't fucking trading it if it wasn't rigged. How are you going to be able to know for certain |
| 468 | 01:21:10 --> 01:21:23 | what you're doing that has any edge? You don't? You're fucking gambling. It's like that. It's gambling. If you're doing it that way. upper quadrant does it |
| 469 | 01:21:23 --> 01:21:34 | close above it? Oh, hell yeah. So that means it's going to reach for what the upper end of the inefficiency, that blue shaded area. And bang, bang, bang up |
| 470 | 01:21:34 --> 01:21:49 | here. So let's roll this back a little bit here, give you some more detail. And we'll find our way off of the mastic. All right, if you look at this low here, |
| 471 | 01:21:49 --> 01:21:51 | this is the swing projections. |
| 472 | 01:22:14 --> 01:22:24 | Alright, so if you're looking at just these two points here, this low, and this high, if price were to break through that, we can anticipate all these levels |
| 473 | 01:22:24 --> 01:22:32 | here. Now I use these levels like this one here is real hard to see I apologize. But if you look real close, you'll see that that is a quadrant amount |
| 474 | 01:22:32 --> 01:22:42 | quantitative standard deviation, and it is close to that one right there. That's what it's the first quadrant of that daily volume of bounce. And that's why you |
| 475 | 01:22:42 --> 01:22:58 | see it hit there and it consolidates then reaching up into negative three standard deviation, we get 1234 times outside of these candlesticks, it's really |
| 476 | 01:22:58 --> 01:23:09 | trying to get to that level. So when I'm teaching you in core content, month five, or I'm teaching standard deviations, I'm looking for these kinds of |
| 477 | 01:23:09 --> 01:23:19 | agreements, these confluences of where certain PV arrays and those levels within a PV array that I are teaching you are influential in terms of price, where |
| 478 | 01:23:19 --> 01:23:29 | there's a collection of them, where they're coming together, coming together and convergence. That's more impactful than some bullshit trendline. Okay, or some |
| 479 | 01:23:29 --> 01:23:41 | kind of indicator, all those things that are you're adding to your chart with lipstick and stuff. That is a that's a religion, you're believing something for |
| 480 | 01:23:41 --> 01:23:52 | the sake of believing it versus these are factors that the market is going to reach for on the basis of inefficiency. So if we know and put it like this, if |
| 481 | 01:23:52 --> 01:24:01 | we know that it's likely to draw up into this blue shaded area, what did we talk about down here? There Mohawks, right? I mean, you can color outside the line. |
| 482 | 01:24:02 --> 01:24:12 | You can go to where you think it's gonna go. But just go pass up this a little bit because everything has to allow for what the spread. So the the algorithms |
| 483 | 01:24:12 --> 01:24:25 | that these high frequency trading algorithms are handshaking with the algorithm that books and delivers prices. Okay, short and sweet. The algorithm that causes |
| 484 | 01:24:25 --> 01:24:33 | the high and low of the form, it's predetermined before anything happens in the day. The high and low is already predetermined. It's already predetermined. I |
| 485 | 01:24:33 --> 01:24:45 | know some of you don't wanna believe that. Okay, I'll let you believe what power cord here. Give me a second one second. Is the bathroom break intermission. |
| 486 | 01:25:35 --> 01:25:53 | breaking hearts breaking heart. This guy is ruining my mentorships. Fuck you mentorships. Alright, so okay, we're looking at the aspects of Knox. Okay, |
| 487 | 01:25:53 --> 01:26:01 | trading outside the levels, coloring outside the lines, if you will. That's what I refer to as something that's permissible. I mean, we don't look at it as less |
| 488 | 01:26:01 --> 01:26:15 | than efficient, we don't look at it as less than precision. We don't look at it as noise, we anticipate very specific things to see price draw to. Okay. If this |
| 489 | 01:26:15 --> 01:26:25 | inefficiency here that shaded in blue is on a daily chart, that means that we're going to be now considering its quadrants because it's large enough to be |
| 490 | 01:26:25 --> 01:26:37 | referring to it can't contrast that with this down here. Okay, it's so small. It's not, it's not essential. There's not much of a difference between the low, |
| 491 | 01:26:37 --> 01:26:44 | the high and the mean scrunch it back up. So you can see, again, what I'm referring to is the balance price range. And we're just going to act just like |
| 492 | 01:26:44 --> 01:26:55 | an inversion fair value. trades down into what if it's an inversion fair Vega, we want to see it respect consequent courtship, which is midpoint, can it trade |
| 493 | 01:26:55 --> 01:27:06 | to the lower end? Yes. But it's not likely to do that if it's coupled with a balanced price range where price goes up and down. So it's traverse between |
| 494 | 01:27:06 --> 01:27:15 | these two price points of this candles body in this candles, body and that one. It's offered buy side and sell side. So it's efficiently delivered and booked |
| 495 | 01:27:15 --> 01:27:22 | price between those two price levels, which is what I'm highlighting here. But when price was trading down here, I was telling you at the time of doing |
| 496 | 01:27:22 --> 01:27:31 | execution, internalize it the same way I've taught you a inversion fair Vega, which would be treated as support. Now do we simply just trade it on the high of |
| 497 | 01:27:31 --> 01:27:43 | it you can plus a ticker so Sheringham but your stop loss has to be at least considering the fact that it can do this little Mohawk thing, it can do that |
| 498 | 01:27:43 --> 01:27:51 | rate to that well, if it's an inversion fair value gap. So aren't you can create just one tick or two below that. But it's not likely highly probable that they |
| 499 | 01:27:51 --> 01:28:03 | won't do that because it's coupled to a balanced price range where price has gone up and down within those very specific price points. That's why consequent |
| 500 | 01:28:03 --> 01:28:15 | coachmen stops here and stops to hear the bodies confirm while you're watching price because it doesn't close below the consequent encroachment so if we're |
| 501 | 01:28:15 --> 01:28:28 | anticipating and allowing for a mohawk something that's just outside the lines of what we're anticipating in seeing as impactful noteworthy in the trade in the |
| 502 | 01:28:28 --> 01:28:41 | tape reading in the price delivery, we're not reducing its level of precision when it does this we are you expecting it that's all that this is right here. |
| 503 | 01:28:42 --> 01:28:50 | This right here on a on a one minute chart. You can see the bodies of the candles here. But if you go to like a five minute chart that's just going to be |
| 504 | 01:28:50 --> 01:28:53 | a wick. Let's just do it |
| 505 | 01:29:00 --> 01:29:19 | see how to wick so this is a mohawk inside of the daily volume imbalance. So it's not it's not a matter of oh, it's the algorithms changing look, it's not |
| 506 | 01:29:19 --> 01:29:31 | respecting it's doing everything that it would normally do. But your trades and how you and if you automate what you're trying to learn from me and you create |
| 507 | 01:29:31 --> 01:29:43 | your own algorithm and you can do that those things will handshake with the algorithm that delivers price Okay, the the algorithm is going to determine the |
| 508 | 01:29:43 --> 01:29:53 | high level day before we start trading in midnight New York local time at that moment right then in there the highs and lows are determined it's already |
| 509 | 01:29:53 --> 01:30:00 | determined I don't give a fuck your your heroes. Oh everybody out there. Whatever ICT says and that's the fucking matter. The highs and lows already |
| 510 | 01:30:00 --> 01:30:19 | predetermined. What I've given you is resources to lean on to help you determine what that is. As close as I can, that's what I've done. Now, if you know that |
| 511 | 01:30:19 --> 01:30:27 | it's a high probability, that's going to create a higher load today, based on something like this daily volume imbalance, okay, in other words, we're bearish, |
| 512 | 01:30:27 --> 01:30:43 | we've been by or bearish on the indices. If we think that it's going to go up to go down, and we can run numbers on the range at midnight, then we run the range |
| 513 | 01:30:43 --> 01:30:56 | again, at 830. Run the range again at 930. Where's the highest highest to lowest low? And what does it still have in play for a reach or draw on liquidity? That |
| 514 | 01:30:56 --> 01:31:04 | daily volume imbalance, we go to a daily chart and I know, look at how much I've taught just here. And we haven't despite one minute, not even a minute, really |
| 515 | 01:31:04 --> 01:31:15 | on the five minute chart. Everything I've talked about here just on this one minute chart. It's deep, folks, it's fucking PhD level shit. Like, I can't take |
| 516 | 01:31:15 --> 01:31:24 | 30 years and compress it into a five minute trainer because you're fucking lazy. I can't do that. I can't do it. No one can. Now I can talk and introduce things |
| 517 | 01:31:24 --> 01:31:30 | conceptually, you're gonna have 1000 different questions. But when I'm teaching, I'm teaching, and I already know what questions you're going to ask. And as soon |
| 518 | 01:31:30 --> 01:31:40 | as I'm saying something, or you know what questions are rising up in your head. But you have to lean on other supporting topics and things I've already made |
| 519 | 01:31:40 --> 01:31:56 | available on his YouTube channel. For free, you just you dig into it. But you don't need to have this level of madness. Okay. I need to know why it does it. |
| 520 | 01:31:56 --> 01:32:07 | Not to simply Is it likely to do it? No, I need to know why it will do it. I need to know when it will do it. I know when it won't do it. That's the thing |
| 521 | 01:32:07 --> 01:32:18 | that's been a driving passion for me. So we see this area here as a small little deviation outside of what we were expecting, which is that blue shaded area. |
| 522 | 01:32:18 --> 01:32:37 | Okay. So now with these quadrants out, we'll take them out of there, I'll take this lipstick off, if we were looking at it from the scope of the bodies right |
| 523 | 01:32:37 --> 01:32:59 | there. Because I teach this also in. In the core content, where price should be reaching for a range that's based on both wicks and in the bodies. Okay, this is |
| 524 | 01:32:59 --> 01:33:10 | we're looking at the one minute chart and we're trying to execute on a one minute chart. This is where you'd have that there. It's calling for 71. So 71, |
| 525 | 01:33:11 --> 01:33:21 | it still has a deviation outside of that, does that change or indicate that this algorithm somehow now changing or morphing are no longer works? Now? You have to |
| 526 | 01:33:21 --> 01:33:34 | come to conclusion that your exits don't require perfection. Your entries don't even require perfection. If you trade with a measure of leverage, that is |
| 527 | 01:33:34 --> 01:33:43 | reasonable, it's sober. Okay. knows you're not trying to do 15 Fucking contracts, because tops that said you can do 15 contracts. That's, that's, |
| 528 | 01:33:43 --> 01:33:53 | that's gambling. That's absolutely gambling. It's absolutely making sure that you won't be successful. Nobody should be impressed when someone's trading with |
| 529 | 01:33:53 --> 01:34:01 | 15 contracts. And you get big wins because that is a lottery win. There's people winning the lottery all the time for how many resets are going to are they going |
| 530 | 01:34:01 --> 01:34:11 | to do? You've already seen I've been very candid, my son has done multiple times doing that. And he's done it very quick. Every single time he tried to do the 15 |
| 531 | 01:34:11 --> 01:34:24 | contracts. He tried to go back and do it again. And same thing happened. So the moral story is what trade with the least give yourself the ability to stay in a |
| 532 | 01:34:24 --> 01:34:37 | trade without having all the I guess the fear, anxiety, what if I do it wrong. If you're trading with the smallest degree of leverage, it shouldn't matter. It |
| 533 | 01:34:37 --> 01:34:44 | won't matter really. But so you're trying to press into every transaction and every moment you're in front of these charts, that it's making you lots of |
| 534 | 01:34:44 --> 01:34:55 | money. And that's the that's the false way of they're learning how to do this. Nobody gets to the finish line fast, profitable doing that way. Nobody has ever |
| 535 | 01:34:55 --> 01:35:04 | done it that way and has found consistently profitable and hugely profitable no he's ever done that nobody has ever done that, you're not going to be the person |
| 536 | 01:35:04 --> 01:35:12 | that does it. And you're going to prolong this learning curve for yourself, thinking that you're gonna speed through it, because you're doing it that way. |
| 537 | 01:35:12 --> 01:35:20 | You I'll learn how to trade by trade with real money, I can only learn if I do it with real money, I will, I won't appreciate the lessons, now you're gonna get |
| 538 | 01:35:20 --> 01:35:26 | scar tissue, you're going to be scared because you've taken real losses. While you shouldn't have done anything, you don't know shit about trading, you don't |
| 539 | 01:35:26 --> 01:35:31 | know anything about yourself as a trader, you don't know what you're going to do to wreck yourself. But you're going to learn those lessons painfully and attach |
| 540 | 01:35:31 --> 01:35:41 | that to money. And your subconscious is going to look at these charts and say, yeah, it might do that for the last time, based on my touch that I got a lot of |
| 541 | 01:35:41 --> 01:35:51 | money ticket in my ass. And I don't want to do that. And again, so what did you learn, learn to be scared, you learn to be afraid to take a trade, you learned |
| 542 | 01:35:51 --> 01:36:00 | to be fearful instead of following a model, well fucking done, he didn't listen. But some of you think that you're the exception, you're not gonna be the |
| 543 | 01:36:00 --> 01:36:10 | exception. You're gonna be just like everyone else as a statistic, you're doing all the wrong things, thinking that you're gonna be the one that can skate |
| 544 | 01:36:10 --> 01:36:24 | through it with no problem, and it's not going to work for you like that. Right, and this is your fulcrum point. Right there. So from the low to that swing high, |
| 545 | 01:36:25 --> 01:36:37 | there, if it breaks above that, you can look for objectives here and this one, just fall short of that. So you never have gotten that, and the last one on the |
| 546 | 01:36:37 --> 01:36:38 | bodies. |
| 547 | 01:36:54 --> 01:37:04 | Just fall short of that one there. Okay, so I wanted to use this one here. And I wanted to use a limit order that would have never been filled based on this |
| 548 | 01:37:04 --> 01:37:13 | logic, because I was going to exit just below that by a little bit. And it never would have filled it. I wanted to have point seven, five, and the high was |
| 549 | 01:37:13 --> 01:37:27 | 50 14,004 76 and a half. And I wanted to be out at 14 470 6.75. And had I done that you would have seen me not get the exit, and I would have ended up closing |
| 550 | 01:37:27 --> 01:37:36 | it down here and stopped out and missed the actual high point that I was exiting right at the high end. So above the upper quadrant, but before getting to that |
| 551 | 01:37:36 --> 01:37:46 | high on the blue shaded area. So that's how and why I managed it the way I did. And where am i where my partials were whatnot. But all these things in here, |
| 552 | 01:37:47 --> 01:37:54 | you're not going to find this stuff here on supporting systems, what I just outlined all this stuff, that's not supporting systems, that's not game, it's |
| 553 | 01:37:54 --> 01:38:04 | not Wycoff. That's not supply and demand. It's not anything but mine. It's a language that I created, because I know things that you're not going to find in |
| 554 | 01:38:04 --> 01:38:12 | books and no one else is going to step out here and teach you it. If they knew it, they'd be doing it. If they could come close to it, they'd be showing you. |
| 555 | 01:38:13 --> 01:38:21 | So you either make the decision in either you subscribe to the idea that these markets are algorithmic. And if you do, use the things that I'm teaching you, |
| 556 | 01:38:21 --> 01:38:29 | and it'll be easier for you to trust the time that it takes for you to learn how to build. If you don't want to believe there's an algorithm, you're going to |
| 557 | 01:38:29 --> 01:38:36 | constantly wrestle internally, that I'm wasting my time because you don't believe there's an algorithm you think that these you think this is a free |
| 558 | 01:38:36 --> 01:38:47 | market. It's not. It's a rigged market. And you should not be upset about it, you should Don't be mad about it. Because common sense should tell you that |
| 559 | 01:38:47 --> 01:39:00 | countries and central banks would not allow outside influences to muscle and strong army into oblivion. Because if this really was, if this really really was |
| 560 | 01:39:00 --> 01:39:12 | a free market, you don't think that the actors around the world that don't like our US markets wouldn't think it any given day. You don't ask the right |
| 561 | 01:39:12 --> 01:39:21 | question. You don't ask the right questions. It's like you just drink the same kool aid in this industry and the people that are in it with their little titles |
| 562 | 01:39:21 --> 01:39:27 | and bullshit. And learn from this person. This person tells you the market does this. But these these people aren't going to tell you what a one minute fucking |
| 563 | 01:39:27 --> 01:39:33 | chart with a 15 second chart. This is where it's gonna turn on a fucking diamond. So it it goes somewhere else. If it wasn't rigged, if it wasn't |
| 564 | 01:39:33 --> 01:39:47 | algorithmic, there's no fucking way anybody could do that. Let alone me. Little demo baller from Little River Maryland. So much fun. Anyway, let's spread this |
| 565 | 01:39:47 --> 01:39:56 | out a little bit more and give you some detail about market makers sell models and buy models. So if we're anticipating the market is likely to continue going |
| 566 | 01:39:56 --> 01:40:04 | lower because longer term higher timeframe we've been saying that we're Try not to pick a bar. Okay, so you have to open yourself up to the likelihood that |
| 567 | 01:40:04 --> 01:40:14 | every new opportunity in the marketplace intraday should be more heavily weighted on creating short opportunities. It doesn't matter that I did all this |
| 568 | 01:40:14 --> 01:40:20 | buying in here, and it would look really pretty and it was nice. And some of you did the same stuff that I did today, which is great. That's a testament that you |
| 569 | 01:40:20 --> 01:40:28 | have learned a language that works. And you are able to find a model in your own hands. Do it without me because I didn't make it public to you. I didn't tell |
| 570 | 01:40:28 --> 01:40:38 | you what I wanted to do today. I executed on the things I teach you, though. But if you are looking for shorts, you would anticipate the market drawing up into |
| 571 | 01:40:38 --> 01:40:50 | this area here. And I guess it's fine time to show you what this is. I've been talking about this one time frames go to a daily chart. I guess this is a good |
| 572 | 01:40:50 --> 01:41:00 | time to invite you to if you are learning today. This is one of those times where you can click that little thumbs up button, it doesn't charge you anything |
| 573 | 01:41:00 --> 01:41:10 | your pay pal won't have any transactions against it, your credit card won't be swiped, I promise you, it will be free. But it's an encouragement that you found |
| 574 | 01:41:10 --> 01:41:23 | some insightful information today, because I'm living and literally giving you stuff that charter members are learning with you. You're learning insights and |
| 575 | 01:41:23 --> 01:41:33 | things that I'm brushing over, that are going to be topics in books, that you really don't need these levels of understanding, you don't need it. Because what |
| 576 | 01:41:33 --> 01:41:41 | I've already simplified on YouTube channel with the models I've given that it's straightforward, simple things, you just have to understand how to read the |
| 577 | 01:41:41 --> 01:41:48 | tape. And that's being in front of chart and seeing the things that are given you as rules, how they repeat author, they repeat all the time, it's every week, |
| 578 | 01:41:48 --> 01:41:59 | every day, and it won't stop. So this candlesticks, close here, and then the very next candlestick, and again, this is daily chart. So every candlestick here |
| 579 | 01:41:59 --> 01:42:08 | is a daily representation of the highest time lows low where it started trading where it stopped trading, okay? I'll add this because it's in my last video, |
| 580 | 01:42:09 --> 01:42:18 | this set button here, I use this interchangeably. So if I click this, it changes sometimes a little bit, you can see it like this candlestick up here, okay, |
| 581 | 01:42:18 --> 01:42:29 | what's the, what's the, the close of it, it'll change. So that's a little bit higher there is lower there. I use both readings. I use both readings because I |
| 582 | 01:42:29 --> 01:42:36 | want to have those levels in mind, because traders are gonna have it toggled on sometimes, and sometimes they're not gonna have a toggle. So I want to know what |
| 583 | 01:42:36 --> 01:42:43 | retail is doing. And a lot of retail uses TradingView. And it's not a knock against trading view. I actually love I love this resource. If I didn't like it, |
| 584 | 01:42:43 --> 01:42:52 | I wouldn't use it. Okay, should you use it for your own trading? That's something for you to determine. I get nothing from them. They've asked me to |
| 585 | 01:42:52 --> 01:43:01 | have an arrangement where you know, they give me something for telling you to use it. I said no. And that's 100%. Honestly, I don't have a I have no |
| 586 | 01:43:01 --> 01:43:10 | affiliation with no one. If I tell you something, I like it. It's the truth. If I tell you it's bullshit. It's the truth. Okay, no one's influencing my opinion |
| 587 | 01:43:10 --> 01:43:18 | about anything, no one's going to get me to say something nice about something that isn't good. So it is what it is here. I don't sugarcoat anything. But just |
| 588 | 01:43:18 --> 01:43:32 | so you know that. This is the settings I have here. So is it set on the blue? No, it's set off. So I use these two reference points, right there. That's what |
| 589 | 01:43:32 --> 01:43:41 | that volume imbalance is. So that was in my chart this morning. While I was taking the trade life, you watch me execute you watch me manage the trade. And |
| 590 | 01:43:41 --> 01:43:54 | it was based on this logic that we were down here. And it's going to do what trade up here. But I see T you're teaching Support Resistance, buddy. You're |
| 591 | 01:43:54 --> 01:44:02 | just making it complicated. Why did they go up to that low? It broke below this low right here. Why didn't they go up there? Because it doesn't fucking need to |
| 592 | 01:44:02 --> 01:44:10 | go up there. It doesn't need to go there. It's not going to go there. where's it gonna go where I'm telling you it's gonna go the algorithm that delivers and |
| 593 | 01:44:10 --> 01:44:18 | books price that's a predetermined, it's a scheduled event, it's going to happen whether you fucking own it or not. Whether you buy it or short, it doesn't |
| 594 | 01:44:18 --> 01:44:27 | matter how many people are buying it. It doesn't matter what the volume level is. It does not fucking matter. None of that shit matters. It's going to go up |
| 595 | 01:44:27 --> 01:44:38 | into this level here. Why does it need to go here? Why does it need to do that very thing, right? They're going up to that point with missing volume. Why would |
| 596 | 01:44:38 --> 01:44:49 | we say why would we say that? Because look, this candlesticks low right here, this candlesticks level off just for this. It went up to that level there. So if |
| 597 | 01:44:49 --> 01:45:00 | it's Support Resistance, why not just use this daily low? Because it's not fucking Support Resistance. Why didn't it stop at this previous daily high cuz |
| 598 | 01:45:00 --> 01:45:09 | there's not fucking support and resistance. So what am I looking at? I'm looking at the difference between these two candlesticks bodies, even though they are |
| 599 | 01:45:09 --> 01:45:19 | joining in slightly overlapping with these two wicks here. It's candlesticks, wickedness candlesticks tail me long, as you can see. So this one has a little |
| 600 | 01:45:19 --> 01:45:33 | bit of a tail underneath it, this one has a little bit of a wick on the upside, can you see that the fact that it doesn't have a body overlapping the close to |
| 601 | 01:45:33 --> 01:45:42 | open of these two candlesticks, the algorithm will reprice to that do not take my fucking word for it, go back and look at your charts, it's happening all the |
| 602 | 01:45:42 --> 01:45:53 | time on every single timeframe, even on five second charts. They're gonna say noise. It's not noise, it's not fucking noise, okay? |
| 603 | 01:45:59 --> 01:46:12 | The systems that run these booking engines that create price fluctuations that you think are random acts of buying and selling pressure, they're starting from |
| 604 | 01:46:12 --> 01:46:21 | a lower timeframe, working their way up to higher timeframe, then they cycle down from that higher timeframe, that down to the lower timeframe. They're doing |
| 605 | 01:46:21 --> 01:46:33 | this all day long, all night long. That's what's going on. It's a price delivery continuum that starts from the lower timeframes moves up to the higher |
| 606 | 01:46:33 --> 01:46:41 | timeframes. And once it fulfills a higher timeframe, then it starts dropping back down into lower timeframes. And it's not just timeframes that you see me |
| 607 | 01:46:41 --> 01:46:46 | point to, and I'm not telling you what they are. So don't fucking ask me, I'm not going to do it, I don't give a fuck you asked me, you're never gonna get it |
| 608 | 01:46:46 --> 01:46:57 | out of me, period. But I had to create a language that you guys can use. Because it's extremely much more complicated than I'm showing you here. And if you |
| 609 | 01:46:57 --> 01:47:07 | understood how much of a complicated sub subject matter this is, it's a miracle that I got this far with it. Like for you to be able to see this is this is |
| 610 | 01:47:07 --> 01:47:18 | success for me. I can see how you all have learned from it. And that's what I needed, I needed to see that if I could create that. So I know I've been over |
| 611 | 01:47:18 --> 01:47:28 | the target. And now there's nothing anybody can do to punish me. Because I didn't teach you exactly what I know that I can't teach you. But it's close |
| 612 | 01:47:28 --> 01:47:37 | enough that you guys are now murdering these rockin markets, and they can't fucking stop you. They can't tell you you can't come to the table. There's too |
| 613 | 01:47:37 --> 01:47:47 | many of you. There's too many of you. So fuck you, how's that work for you? So there is a volume imbalance in here because the bodies are not overlapping that |
| 614 | 01:47:47 --> 01:47:57 | gap between the two bodies here to the close of this candle, I'm sorry, the close of this candle and the open of that candle. It's lacking a candlestick |
| 615 | 01:47:57 --> 01:48:08 | body. You see that? So what does that mean? It means that that range that I'm highlighting here can be revisited. Now, Chris, Laurie, and anyone else that |
| 616 | 01:48:08 --> 01:48:16 | talks about those inefficiencies, who's imbalances? Who's liquidity voids, that's not a liquidity word. This is inefficiency. Okay. And liquidity void is |
| 617 | 01:48:16 --> 01:48:26 | an actual gap between one period to another. Where there is no wick, there is no body that is a liquidity void. It's a void of all liquidity. This is not a |
| 618 | 01:48:26 --> 01:48:39 | liquidity void. There was buying and selling in between the clothes in the low. There was buying and selling between the open in the high both of those two |
| 619 | 01:48:39 --> 01:48:50 | price points or two time intervals in the individual daily candlesticks. They both intersected and overlap a little bit there. So that is not a void. It's not |
| 620 | 01:48:50 --> 01:49:06 | a void. It's inefficient. So what is it needing here? What does it need? If we opened down here on a Monday of Non Farm Payroll week, in a market that's highly |
| 621 | 01:49:07 --> 01:49:16 | the stabilized because of all the geopolitical things and war savoring going on. There's no economic reason to own stocks. They're absolutely inflated. There's |
| 622 | 01:49:16 --> 01:49:26 | no fundamental reason to be long stocks. And I was laughed at a month and a half ago when I said it was gonna go lower. And people are blocking trolling me from |
| 623 | 01:49:26 --> 01:49:36 | silence. Now. They found out that we were right. It did what we said it was going to do. Because what I'm teaching you is the market, it is the market. It's |
| 624 | 01:49:36 --> 01:49:48 | not patterns. It's not theory. It's the market. It's what the market is going to do. So if it's an inefficiency like this where there's no bodies, we can |
| 625 | 01:49:48 --> 01:49:59 | anticipate the market wanting to reprice up into that. Even if it goes higher, it doesn't matter that gives you an opportunity to do what sales you're here and |
| 626 | 01:49:59 --> 01:50:12 | reach for liquidity was used prior to the run up. But if it's bearish, this is a wonderful area to see price draw up into thinking what we created a low we |
| 627 | 01:50:12 --> 01:50:22 | created the bottom. Because the market stock market by itself is predisposed to wear up. It's ingrained in everybody's mind to buy stock, buy stock, buy the |
| 628 | 01:50:22 --> 01:50:35 | stock market be a holder. So that that premise is constantly primed in the the thought processes of traders, I want to buy stock, I want to buy call options, I |
| 629 | 01:50:35 --> 01:50:49 | want to buy something. So if we open up here, it gives you the inclination that what hey, look, you know, we gapped up higher from where we closed on Friday. So |
| 630 | 01:50:49 --> 01:51:02 | that it gapped up, we trade down a little bit. Okay, wonderful. And then sent it up to a level that is predetermined, that you know, these exist, I taught it to |
| 631 | 01:51:02 --> 01:51:16 | you, it's there. That blue shaded area was in my chart from the time my trade opened, until I managed the close of it. That's not random. But the logic was, |
| 632 | 01:51:16 --> 01:51:27 | it's going to offer a revisiting of this area because there's no body. Now there still isn't a body, it's just a wick, today's with went there today. And volume |
| 633 | 01:51:27 --> 01:51:36 | imbalances, we know that it's likely to go through that. That's one of the PDA arrays that you have, they'll have a lot of flexibility. And they can also be |
| 634 | 01:51:36 --> 01:51:46 | used multiple times until this is for your notes for folks that aren't writing anything down. Once there's a body laid over top of the closed the open here, |
| 635 | 01:51:46 --> 01:51:55 | whether it be an up close or down close. Once the body is laid across that I'm not going to refer back to that volume and bounce ever again. That's not to say |
| 636 | 01:51:55 --> 01:52:06 | that you can't use it again, I'm saying that I won't use it. That means it's expired at that point. But it will not expire at all until there's a body laid |
| 637 | 01:52:06 --> 01:52:14 | across this range. And this is just a wick. Okay? So there's logic there. There's, there's, there's sound logic being employed there. It's not to some |
| 638 | 01:52:14 --> 01:52:21 | conjecture, it's something that I have taught my students. It's something that I use in trade examples that I'm showing you, I use it in my analysis, when I'm |
| 639 | 01:52:21 --> 01:52:29 | talking to you on these higher timeframe charts. You've seen me doing it now for a year and a half publicly. Now, what have you seen me get wrong? short list, |
| 640 | 01:52:29 --> 01:52:38 | that's a very short list in it. So I'm counseling you to don't just take my word for it. Go back and look at the things I've taught you and see if you see them |
| 641 | 01:52:38 --> 01:52:45 | in the chart. And you're going to be convinced rather quickly that it's there. So then you have to sit in front of charts and learn how to see them happening |
| 642 | 01:52:45 --> 01:52:53 | real time. In the beginning, you're not going to know what it looks like before it happened. But then over time, you'll start recognizing things I've seen as he |
| 643 | 01:52:53 --> 01:53:02 | heard this thing he talked about. And then boom, there it is. Every one of my students have the same epiphany, not the same time, not the same length of time. |
| 644 | 01:53:02 --> 01:53:09 | But they all have the same thing. Wow, it happened when I wasn't really expecting it just happened. And I can see it now. But once you understand it, |
| 645 | 01:53:09 --> 01:53:18 | and you see it, you can't unsee it, but you can't rush it either. And that's the part I wish I was better at and as a teacher to help you with that. But in my |
| 646 | 01:53:18 --> 01:53:27 | honesty, I don't think there's a way to do it. Because all of us bring our own baggage to it, you know, the things that we wrestle with the most. So that's the |
| 647 | 01:53:28 --> 01:53:38 | that's the imbalanced volume imbalance on a daily chart. And we dropped down to a four hour chart now. You see how even on the four hour chart we have that but |
| 648 | 01:53:38 --> 01:53:50 | look, was that candlestick body? Nope. But on the four hour what we have here? Did it close over top of that with a body? No, it still have this portion here. |
| 649 | 01:53:50 --> 01:54:02 | So this is still in play. It can be utilized again, it's not expired 60 minute chart, same thing to the body closing in on any one of these candlesticks. Nope. |
| 650 | 01:54:03 --> 01:54:15 | So that does what for me, it tells me that this needs to stay on my chart. If we go into a timeframe, hourly, for hourly or daily in a body is later at top of |
| 651 | 01:54:15 --> 01:54:25 | it. Why am I using these timeframes? Should my money why not any other time great learning because one hour four hour and daily are my swing trading |
| 652 | 01:54:25 --> 01:54:37 | timeframes. And I don't want to use a daily volume imbalance and cancel it with something less than an hourly chart. Look at my core content lessons where I |
| 653 | 01:54:37 --> 01:54:45 | talk about how using one timeframe with another timeframe to qualify another trade. I talk about that in greater detail and I'm not gonna waste my time with |
| 654 | 01:54:45 --> 01:54:53 | it because I've done it a long winded discussion there with real examples and how to think about moving one timeframe to the next from swing trading, short |
| 655 | 01:54:53 --> 01:55:09 | term trading or day trading. Alright, so Looking at a 15 minute timeframe just for the sake of market structure. And even on the 15 minute timeframe, it didn't |
| 656 | 01:55:09 --> 01:55:16 | quite closed in with the bottom. So you can see how it's done. Everything I'm teaching you how to use a volume imbalance, all those signatures are still here. |
| 657 | 01:55:16 --> 01:55:25 | Okay? So in short, what that means is it can still run back up here and touch the low end or consequent current of it, and not get up here |
| 658 | 01:55:26 --> 01:55:36 | and still go lower, or it can go all that and close it in and go lower. That's one of the things that we could probably see, because it's not far per week. So |
| 659 | 01:55:36 --> 01:55:49 | to me, like I'm done, like I'm content in 17,000 hours, one clip on a Monday of nonfarm payroll, delivered beautifully with precision, I'm satisfied, like I'm |
| 660 | 01:55:49 --> 01:55:55 | done, I'm good. I don't need to do anything else in the pm session today, I don't need to do anything on Tuesday, I need to trade on Wednesday, squeeze |
| 661 | 01:55:55 --> 01:56:02 | something else out. And I certainly don't need to do anything on Thursday and Friday, Non Farm Payroll. But contrast that with every other retail trader out |
| 662 | 01:56:02 --> 01:56:12 | there, they're anticipating a lot of movement on Friday. So they have their hopes set up for a lot of action on Friday. And that's something that I tried to |
| 663 | 01:56:12 --> 01:56:19 | steer all of my students away from, because you shouldn't be excited about taking the trade, it should be boring, you should be bored out of your mind, I'm |
| 664 | 01:56:19 --> 01:56:30 | going to do something I've been doing. And it's probably going to do the same thing I expect to see happen any other time. But you're not excited about it. |
| 665 | 01:56:30 --> 01:56:38 | And that doesn't mean like I'm grinning. In this morning, when I deliver like I wanted to. Well, I mean, even typed it out, right Cakewalk and smiley face. |
| 666 | 01:56:39 --> 01:56:50 | Because it's stuff that I teach, and it just keeps delivering. And I'm not questioning the efficacy of this in the future. Because, you know, even if I was |
| 667 | 01:56:50 --> 01:57:01 | the triple, les Williams record next year, which are not aiming to do that, by the way, the idea of drawing more attention to all this stuff is not going to |
| 668 | 01:57:01 --> 01:57:13 | change anything, folks. Because the fundamental basis of which the markets book price, that won't change, because they're never going to let it be buying and |
| 669 | 01:57:13 --> 01:57:19 | selling pressure to control it. So forget about it, you gotta worry about that. They're always going to manipulate it and control it. So there's going to be a |
| 670 | 01:57:19 --> 01:57:28 | predetermined high low, who cares? And even if they do increase the level of manipulation, so what they can't create a second steroid day, every single day, |
| 671 | 01:57:28 --> 01:57:34 | because nobody will ever invest. So why the fuck are you worrying about shit, that ain't something to worry about. You're gonna have a losing trade, you're |
| 672 | 01:57:34 --> 01:57:43 | gonna get stopped out once in a while. It doesn't change anything. It doesn't change anything. But it changes everything. If you expect that you're going to |
| 673 | 01:57:43 --> 01:57:52 | have to go out here and treat with never losing trade, or make lots of money with no real drawdown. Like that. That's unrealistic. That's unrealistic. And |
| 674 | 01:57:52 --> 01:58:01 | it's important that you understand that, okay. All right. So now let's go over to ES I'm gonna go into another market, particular trade forex and you still |
| 675 | 01:58:01 --> 01:58:05 | talking about this stuff? Alright, so let's go to the |
| 676 | 01:58:12 --> 01:58:29 | script here. relatively close, sell side would be residing below that. Nice reach there last week. And what's resting right here. See that? What is that |
| 677 | 01:58:29 --> 01:58:43 | we've been talking about all morning, right? What is that? What's that PV array called? Volume imbalance. That should be on your chart. I believe that we'll |
| 678 | 01:58:43 --> 01:58:51 | probably see SNPs traded to between now and 830 on Friday. Now, what does that mean? Is that an invitation for you to trade now it's an invitation for you to |
| 679 | 01:58:51 --> 01:59:02 | study. It might not do it. It might not trade there. It could despite a bed and never go there this week or the rest of the year. I'm saying that because we |
| 680 | 01:59:02 --> 01:59:17 | have a fair pay gap between this candles low in this candle is high. But we have a volume imbalance. So your entire range shaded there should be this that's how |
| 681 | 01:59:17 --> 01:59:26 | you should have a new chart. Because you can't ignore a volume imbalance if it's part of or what would be part of a volume I'm sorry, fair that you got. So if |
| 682 | 01:59:26 --> 01:59:36 | there ever is a separation between two candles that would otherwise be like this, this will be a normal Vegas, right? You would expect that. But I taught |
| 683 | 01:59:36 --> 01:59:43 | you that you have to use the volume imbalance in concert with that fair value gap. Because that's the range you're gonna use. Because if you don't do that, |
| 684 | 01:59:43 --> 01:59:50 | you won't have the real consequent encroachment. You won't have the real halfway point you won't have the real upper and lower quadrant levels. See the |
| 685 | 01:59:50 --> 01:59:59 | importance of that. So it's it's really important to know that just because I introduce something doesn't mean that you know it, you should go out there and |
| 686 | 01:59:59 --> 02:00:07 | risk more money. You had to go through a process of studying it, you have to have the real rules, not just make it look like I have a chart that looks like |
| 687 | 02:00:07 --> 02:00:15 | ICTs. Now, it doesn't work like that. You have to know the logic behind it. Okay, and and that's why I talk to you over the long winded approach, because I |
| 688 | 02:00:15 --> 02:00:24 | give a shit, I want you to learn it correctly. I don't want to just go out here and make videos for add, add sense of it, you making? What are you gonna say, |
| 689 | 02:00:24 --> 02:00:32 | when I start making videos, what the hell am I doing them, right? And I'm not delivering pizza, right? I want you to learn, I want you to learn it correctly. |
| 690 | 02:00:32 --> 02:00:40 | And that means it's going to take a lot of lecturing in detail. And some of it's going to be boring, because you're not at that point of which means anything to |
| 691 | 02:00:40 --> 02:00:46 | you. But when you start to try to use it, and your hearts and trying to figure out how to use it correctly, you're going to listen to these lectures, and then |
| 692 | 02:00:46 --> 02:00:54 | they want to be like, Wow, I can see where I was making a mistake there, or I wasn't considering that factor. And now I can see it better. And now you go out |
| 693 | 02:00:54 --> 02:01:01 | and do a better now, that's, that's a proper learning curve. But something you just don't want to do that you want it to be right away real quick, and it |
| 694 | 02:01:01 --> 02:01:16 | doesn't work doesn't work like that. So here's our daily chart. So just be mindful that here. This right there, you see that that friends and neighbors |
| 695 | 02:01:28 --> 02:01:45 | This is a real liquidity void. There is no wick, no tail, nobody. That is a real liquidity people. So if we continue lower, and I'm not calling a low, I'm not |
| 696 | 02:01:45 --> 02:01:55 | trying to pick a bottom. This is a significant draw, where price can go down into and if it gets into that, because there is no wick, and there is no body |
| 697 | 02:01:55 --> 02:02:04 | between these two candlesticks, I wouldn't expect to see a lot of acceleration quickly until we get down to this candlesticks, close. And then tree all this in |
| 698 | 02:02:04 --> 02:02:15 | here. It's a low resistance liquidity run, meaning that it can do a lot of go down a little bit, come back a lot more, go down a little bit, come back a lot |
| 699 | 02:02:15 --> 02:02:26 | more. We're not just real quick slicing through. Okay. So just be mindful that and also, if you factor in what I taught you, because this is a daily chart |
| 700 | 02:02:26 --> 02:02:34 | here, we have this liquidity void, you want to do your ranges, and take all these |
| 701 | 02:02:41 --> 02:02:52 | so then we have our high low cut encouragement, upper quadrant, lower quadrant. So now we have levels that are more much more meaningful to us. So these are all |
| 702 | 02:02:52 --> 02:03:02 | specific price levels that you should have on your s&p chart. If we take out this low, these were, these are going to be impactful until we get down into the |
| 703 | 02:03:02 --> 02:03:09 | close of this up close candle and the open of that candle right there, which is essentially the open, lining up with the consequent curtailment of that |
| 704 | 02:03:10 --> 02:03:20 | liquidity void. So essentially what I'm saying here for folks that don't see the importance of even caring about this area, because there is no trading at all. |
| 705 | 02:03:20 --> 02:03:28 | And I know some of you're thinking, Well, Michael, it's so spotty, it was not really being traded all that much then. So why would you use that? Because it's |
| 706 | 02:03:28 --> 02:03:42 | there. Because it's in our active front contract right now, until we get to expiration in December, which is weeks away, you know, month and a half away. A |
| 707 | 02:03:42 --> 02:03:52 | lot of a lot of things can happen like it can get way beyond this level lower than just that, but because of purposes of looking for where the market could |
| 708 | 02:03:52 --> 02:04:02 | draw to why it should draw there on the horizon that can be measured with, you know, practicality, if we're talking about the entirety of the month of |
| 709 | 02:04:02 --> 02:04:16 | November, still in half of December, before we roll over into March 2024. So when this December contract expires, we'll be rolling into March 2024. But |
| 710 | 02:04:16 --> 02:04:29 | there's a lot of time between that becoming a factor and becoming the front month of sep trading versus where we're at right now. This is this is a fact |
| 711 | 02:04:29 --> 02:04:41 | that you need to be measuring. So I'm always looking at those spotty parts of the contracts that I'm trading during times when it was illiquid because the |
| 712 | 02:04:41 --> 02:04:51 | markets gonna refer to those price points. Why? Because the algorithm is booking price on what this contract month it's not doing it on March. Everything that's |
| 713 | 02:04:51 --> 02:05:01 | being controlled and manipulated is done on this contract right now. And when we roll over in the March 2024 contract all The parent contingent ideas that |
| 714 | 02:05:01 --> 02:05:10 | deliver book price will be based on that March 2004. Contract. It's not rocket science. I mean, I know it sounds like science fiction to a lot of you. Because |
| 715 | 02:05:10 --> 02:05:21 | you have a vested interest in this industry, you do want to be laughed at by your, your, your co workers, you believe in an algorithm? Oh, you silly son of a |
| 716 | 02:05:21 --> 02:05:31 | bit, whatever do stay in your clicks that you mean they're gonna have this level of precision. Alright, so let's drop down into a for our for yes. |
| 717 | 02:05:36 --> 02:05:50 | All right, so we have a gap down here. What kind of gap is that? Does this high look at the high up here, okay, agree up at this price level. That candles high |
| 718 | 02:05:50 --> 02:06:03 | comes in at 42 and a half the low on this candle. Right here. The low neck candle comes in at 43 in half. So there's a difference or a real gap, a |
| 719 | 02:06:03 --> 02:06:15 | liquidity void of one handle. So from 43 and a half to 42 and a half, there's one separation between these two candlesticks that's a real liquidity board. So |
| 720 | 02:06:15 --> 02:06:24 | you want to have that on your on your timeframes, at least the signal 60 minute and unless that might be a factor for price don't want to go back down, we may |
| 721 | 02:06:24 --> 02:06:32 | revisit even if we aren't going to make a low I'm not saying we are. But even we word will make this low, intermediate term or long term, I would be still |
| 722 | 02:06:32 --> 02:06:45 | factoring an interest in that between now and 830. On Friday. There's a volume imbalance inside of this fear a gap with volumes on a daily chart, remember this |
| 723 | 02:06:45 --> 02:06:59 | shaded area here that's on the daily chart. And we go back up real quick. I'm sure I'm gonna lose some of you this this volume imbalance right here, and this |
| 724 | 02:06:59 --> 02:07:05 | candlesticks high, and this candlesticks low that would be normally the fair value got that would look like this on my chart. Normally, if there wasn't a |
| 725 | 02:07:05 --> 02:07:15 | volume imbalance there, that's what you would see. Because we have the volume of bounce we're factoring that into. Okay. So now let's go back down into the four |
| 726 | 02:07:15 --> 02:07:23 | hour chart, we have a volume imbalance there that's visible as well. So even on the daily chart, dropping down to the four hour chart, you can still see it's |
| 727 | 02:07:23 --> 02:07:36 | very distinct. There's no bodies laying between these two candlesticks closing open. So it could draw up into that this is what I'm saying, I'm not interested |
| 728 | 02:07:36 --> 02:07:45 | in taking your trades. But this level down here, that volume imbalance, I'm sorry, that liquidity void, that actual gap that has one handle gap or four |
| 729 | 02:07:45 --> 02:07:58 | ticks of a gap, you should have that highlighted on anything from a 60 minute down. And this area right up in here, since we can see it on the daily. And on |
| 730 | 02:07:58 --> 02:08:07 | the four hour, this is what you should have a new chart. So there's your up and down there premium and your discount, as it is right now, that's just saying |
| 731 | 02:08:07 --> 02:08:14 | that we don't need to go outside the range of the swing high. Why the swing high, because it's good is the swing high prior to this one. And it's got a |
| 732 | 02:08:14 --> 02:08:23 | higher, I'm sorry, has a low, lower high rather to the right a bit and a lower high to the left of it. So this swing high isn't important to me. If it wasn't |
| 733 | 02:08:23 --> 02:08:30 | there, then I'll take my attention to there. But this is the only one that has a swing high until we get to this point here. But we're not interested in the |
| 734 | 02:08:30 --> 02:08:39 | spine in of itself, because volume and balance here on the four hour, which is we're looking at. And it's also the same area on the daily. So this little |
| 735 | 02:08:39 --> 02:08:48 | segment of price action is above where we are at market right now market prices here. So discount my interest is that liquidity void of one handle or four |
| 736 | 02:08:48 --> 02:08:57 | ticks, the lowest. And the premium level is this volume imbalance. And now how would I use that information? I would look at that at two o'clock and the three |
| 737 | 02:08:57 --> 02:09:05 | o'clock in the four o'clock and see, does it want to draw to either one of them? Does it give me a silver bullet? Does it give me something tomorrow morning, |
| 738 | 02:09:05 --> 02:09:14 | that's going to be obvious that's trying to get to either one of them. And if it offers you a framework that allow for five handles, and not a lot of risk their |
| 739 | 02:09:14 --> 02:09:24 | narrative. So for the folks that don't have the skill set to be a ticket trade, you simply use these levels to study which one is it gravitate towards? And then |
| 740 | 02:09:24 --> 02:09:33 | look at the price action after it does that and see, was there a silver bullet there? Was there a model 22 And two entry? Was there an optimal trade entry |
| 741 | 02:09:33 --> 02:09:41 | there, okay? Or was there a breaker that you can use to get to either one of these levels. And that's how you start. Because if you don't know what you're |
| 742 | 02:09:41 --> 02:09:49 | doing, you have to have a framework on how to trade how to on that trade, but how to practice in log things. And that's what you're doing. In the beginning. |
| 743 | 02:09:49 --> 02:09:55 | It's going to seem counter intuitive to be doing that because you think you should be pushing buttons in a demo account, when you're going to just simply |
| 744 | 02:09:55 --> 02:10:05 | feed yourself bad experiences and learn nothing except for concern for the outcome which is what you want to avoid before you learn how to follow a model |
| 745 | 02:10:05 --> 02:10:16 | and in certainly before you trade with real money so again just a reminder if you're learning anything little thumbs up button it's a testimony that you are |
| 746 | 02:10:16 --> 02:10:31 | learning that is listening. Alright, see how clean this is here that in there with the bodies to this or here that's relatively equal highs. I like that. So I |
| 747 | 02:10:31 --> 02:10:42 | think that this is something that you should have on your chart for a premium me meaning that it's likely that they'll want to go above that folks that see this |
| 748 | 02:10:42 --> 02:10:53 | high today they they're short, I wouldn't I wouldn't want to be short in this but it's likely that they might at some time between now and Friday, they want |
| 749 | 02:10:53 --> 02:11:02 | to clean that area up if they do if they do trade through that then I would want to see does it want to stay above that and not quickly reject because of as long |
| 750 | 02:11:02 --> 02:11:11 | as it doesn't cook reject we would anticipate trading up into that area here which is the inefficiency that we've seen on daily in the four hour now on an |
| 751 | 02:11:11 --> 02:11:24 | hourly chart and now this becomes what lookouts refining down into a actual liquidity void where there is no trading between two successive candlesticks So |
| 752 | 02:11:24 --> 02:11:36 | between this candle is low and this candle is high there is no trading zero booking of price buying or selling nothing so this is a real what liquidity boy |
| 753 | 02:11:37 --> 02:11:43 | should it be defined just like this is it accurate to leave it just like this |
| 754 | 02:11:52 --> 02:12:03 | No you shouldn't why because this candlestick here did what it pressed into it a little bit so this needs to be augmented to show this candlesticks high then |
| 755 | 02:12:03 --> 02:12:15 | drop back to this candlesticks low that's the refined levels so the Void is between this candlesticks low and Miss candlesticks high because between when |
| 756 | 02:12:15 --> 02:12:28 | this formed all through here this candlestick went up into it by a little bit what just about this candlesticks Hmm. So that the inefficiency is now redefined |
| 757 | 02:12:28 --> 02:12:45 | by this high and that low. So this is what you should have on your chart. Okay. All right. 15 minute timeframe. Yes, guys, long winded. If you were paying me |
| 758 | 02:12:45 --> 02:12:57 | you'd want it to be just like this. Don't shortchange me, ICT Don't be going shortcuts. Okay, I want to know everything. Alright, so we have what is |
| 759 | 02:12:57 --> 02:13:07 | interesting, we have a low, lower low in this high in here. So if we get above, let's say we get above and sweep all this area here that is outlined on the |
| 760 | 02:13:07 --> 02:13:17 | hourly chart, I would want to see if it was the correct lower, I would want to see it be supported by this potential breaker. Okay, so we have a low, high |
| 761 | 02:13:17 --> 02:13:27 | lower low, if it were to take a run above that 4187 level, it's allowed, it would be permissible for to drop down into this high in here. But it would have |
| 762 | 02:13:27 --> 02:13:34 | to be supported by you. If I'm in charge, it would have to be supported by this up close candle here. |
| 763 | 02:13:40 --> 02:13:51 | Because that would be your bullish breaker. So meaning that it has to go through that. show no respect of it. Okay. So this is also something I'm going to talk |
| 764 | 02:13:51 --> 02:13:59 | about in my, my my books, but just to prove to you shouldn't feel this over excitement about buying my book. I'm not trying to appeal to you to get more |
| 765 | 02:13:59 --> 02:14:07 | money, okay, but I'm going to teach you something here that I will talk about in the book. But because I'm showing it to you over a chart, it's going to be a |
| 766 | 02:14:07 --> 02:14:16 | little bit more impactful. You've seen me doing executions, where I'll label a breaker and I'm entering inside of the range that's defined as a breaker. |
| 767 | 02:14:16 --> 02:14:24 | Whereas you classically classically have learned and seen me define the breaker being utilized after it gets above it comes back down, then you see me but |
| 768 | 02:14:24 --> 02:14:34 | that's the that's the low level understanding of a breaker. It's a very simple conceptual idea. But if I'm bullish, okay, if I'm really bullish, I can use a |
| 769 | 02:14:34 --> 02:14:44 | lower timeframe entry inside of this knowing that I'm positioning myself within order flow. That later on if it comes back down touches again, that could be a |
| 770 | 02:14:44 --> 02:14:57 | pyramid entry for me. But if it goes above it here, by a little bit in rapidly trades down below this low here, then that to me is problematic for it to go up |
| 771 | 02:14:57 --> 02:15:06 | into the four hour daily. You And then refined area up here we have as that Makoto, the board, you find what I'm saying. So, there's an heirarchy to using |
| 772 | 02:15:06 --> 02:15:16 | all these things. And it's an easy thing to explain for someone to watch one time to understand right away, okay? See how fast we rolled up into it there, |
| 773 | 02:15:17 --> 02:15:32 | that stuff can happen. Instant, just like that. So there is liquidity wrestling rebuild at 10 o'clock high. You want to measure how fast it wants to reprice |
| 774 | 02:15:32 --> 02:15:45 | above that, if at all okay? But this breaker is also something if it fails to go higher. Every one of my PD arrays can be used like an inversion of airbag that |
| 775 | 02:15:45 --> 02:15:58 | every every PV array has an inversion aspect to it. So if we are friends, say that say say I was hardline bearish, was really bearish. I could take a short in |
| 776 | 02:15:58 --> 02:16:05 | this as its trading regrets. And I'm not saying that's what I want to do. I'm just saying that if there's an instance where I am bearish, I would sell in that |
| 777 | 02:16:05 --> 02:16:13 | like that if you watch me do the executions, and I've done this before for students. They're like, what are you using there? It's the fact that I'm looking |
| 778 | 02:16:13 --> 02:16:23 | at something that would otherwise be viewed if it was viewed diametrically opposed to the sentiment I'm using in trades. It'd be used bullishly. Same way I |
| 779 | 02:16:23 --> 02:16:32 | use with the retail logic if like if I talk about a trend line Phantom, where it looks so obvious that there is some suppose a diagonal support or resistance, if |
| 780 | 02:16:32 --> 02:16:40 | I can clearly see that in the timeframe I'm looking at. I know it's going to draw to the midpoint and draw to that liquidity. So what am I doing, I'm |
| 781 | 02:16:40 --> 02:16:51 | capitalizing in attacking retail logic, how's that rebranding retail logic, it's not opposed to retail theory. So I'm looking at it, it. Like I have a disdain |
| 782 | 02:16:51 --> 02:17:00 | for retail theory, because it's bullshit. That's what's leading you astray. That's what you're losing money on. But you keep looking at it, and coming back |
| 783 | 02:17:00 --> 02:17:09 | to it like a dog to its vomit thinking, I need to eat this or I'm gonna starve. I'm never gonna do it unless I do it this way. And you have to put it down, |
| 784 | 02:17:09 --> 02:17:19 | leave it alone. Don't touch it. Learn to identify where where it's in price. And the way I'm teaching you how the markets likely to draw to specific price levels |
| 785 | 02:17:19 --> 02:17:27 | that draw on liquidity, if that draw on liquidity is opposed to what you see from a retail perspective or theory, chances are that retail theory is wrong. |
| 786 | 02:17:28 --> 02:17:36 | That's, that's what I'm trying to communicate. I'm trying to communicate that as a beginning basis point. Because if you can get to that point, it's real easy to |
| 787 | 02:17:36 --> 02:17:45 | hold on to learning and practicing until you get good at your model. And then then it becomes really fun because then you can go into any timeframe using that |
| 788 | 02:17:45 --> 02:17:54 | model and find something that builds your courage up every single day because you have something you can measure. So we have a little short term high from |
| 789 | 02:17:54 --> 02:18:08 | today's intraday high and then we're trading right back down into that breaker it's a one minute chart and the time is 130 200 I start this thing when |
| 790 | 02:18:08 --> 02:18:24 | something was calling so we've been going back two hours and 15 minutes I'll try to wrap this up by the time we get to two o'clock keep going ICT come on let's |
| 791 | 02:18:24 --> 02:18:34 | go to a daily chart look at the Dow down Why am the two zero to three |
| 792 | 02:18:40 --> 02:18:50 | we have a small little fair pay gap we kind of forget what kind of fair value gap is this before I draw it out? What would you call it? What was it What's |
| 793 | 02:18:50 --> 02:19:07 | that one called? What's the little thing I told you that that you remember determine what is a specific fair Vega down close fair value gap is a city up |
| 794 | 02:19:07 --> 02:19:11 | close for your bike gap is a busy so this is a city sells on a balanced by some efficiency |
| 795 | 02:19:21 --> 02:19:41 | from here to here, right? Right. Right. Know what's here, volume imbalance. So you have to incorporate that. So that's what you should have in your chart. |
| 796 | 02:19:41 --> 02:19:55 | Okay. Now because it's on what timeframe What's up here? What's this is a daily chart. You want to be able to add quadrants. Okay. So these are very specific |
| 797 | 02:19:56 --> 02:20:05 | levels. It's not a fucking zone. Okay? It's not implying Man zones, where who the hell knows what you're supposed to trade off of? Okay, it's very specific |
| 798 | 02:20:05 --> 02:20:09 | levels that we're looking for. So in a four hour chart, the drop down |
| 799 | 02:20:22 --> 02:20:31 | so markets drawn back up into this area here, right about the short term high, this up close candle, I would not call that an order block. Why? Because it's |
| 800 | 02:20:31 --> 02:20:41 | outside of the range of that daily Fairbury. Yet, that's also incorporating this the volume imbalance. So all of this movement back in here, I would discount all |
| 801 | 02:20:41 --> 02:20:51 | that. And I would look at a closed candle above this area here to be my bearish order block, which would be this one here. Okay, rules, folks rules, that's |
| 802 | 02:20:51 --> 02:21:01 | what's going to be in the books. Not every closed candle is a bearish order block. So if we have our lower quadrant level here, does it want to get to that |
| 803 | 02:21:01 --> 02:21:10 | lower quadrant level? Does it do so speedily, and does it close above it when it gets there? If it doesn't that suspect that means it might want to revisit all |
| 804 | 02:21:10 --> 02:21:19 | this down here, and this area here, between this down close, and this up close this little segment of price action, right, and here is a balanced price range. |
| 805 | 02:21:21 --> 02:21:31 | So it will take a more meaningful move to get below this. So any retracements could be met with some kind of support in here. If we lose this area here, and |
| 806 | 02:21:31 --> 02:21:43 | it comes back up and touches it, that is, in my opinion, potentially very bearish. But I can't stand the Dow, the Dow is very, very fickle, its body it |
| 807 | 02:21:43 --> 02:21:52 | doesn't want to listen many times what the other ones are doing. But it's usually very helpful when it comes time to looking for intermediate or intraday, |
| 808 | 02:21:53 --> 02:22:00 | SMT divergences, where the doubt many times is the one culprit that will say, I'm not listening. I'm not going to make that lower low, or I'm not gonna make |
| 809 | 02:22:00 --> 02:22:12 | the higher high where the NASDAQ and s&p would. That is something that you want to add to your s&p notes that if you have an s&p Divergence that is using the ES |
| 810 | 02:22:12 --> 02:22:24 | as the divergence or the MQ as the divergence. Those are going to be your stronger SMP divergences. Want you to say that it's gave you some gold? True? |
| 811 | 02:22:24 --> 02:22:32 | Yes, I'll take an s&p divergence. If it's the Dow, if I'm really, really strongly convicted about the IB, I think the markets gonna go. But I usually |
| 812 | 02:22:32 --> 02:22:41 | demand ES or NASDAQ to be the divergence, because it's a larger degree of stocks, because that was only 30. And those companies are, you know, they're not |
| 813 | 02:22:41 --> 02:22:51 | what they used to be, versus 100 of the tech stocks, or 500 of the blue chip stocks that are in the s&p composite index. So it's a little bit more weight |
| 814 | 02:22:51 --> 02:23:02 | placed on my s&p divergences when I'm using it as a catalyst behind the ES or end up being the diverging index. So if that index is one of the two Es or |
| 815 | 02:23:02 --> 02:23:11 | NASDAQ, I'm going to have a lot more faith behind the s&p divergence than it would be if it was just the Dow. So if I'm seeing it on the Dow, I have to have |
| 816 | 02:23:11 --> 02:23:19 | other things really siding with me that it's going to move. Otherwise, this the s&p is not going to do it for me, it's not going to be the thing for me to say, |
| 817 | 02:23:19 --> 02:23:30 | Yeah, this is a good qualified trait. So just toss that no, no extra charge. Just make sure that this is down here is your balanced pricing. And 60 minute |
| 818 | 02:23:30 --> 02:23:45 | chart, manual to clinic today. The charge money. Got myself some cheese cake. Alright, so here we have the hourly chart. Now look how this run here. From |
| 819 | 02:23:45 --> 02:23:56 | here, run, don't worry about the shaded area here because we did that after this forms. But look how it goes down here runs up trades above this high there. No |
| 820 | 02:23:56 --> 02:24:08 | inefficiency, because it goes immediately down into the order block. But where specifically does it go? What is this? To wick, right? wicks are treated as a |
| 821 | 02:24:08 --> 02:24:23 | gap, or inefficiency. So if we treat this range, when I'm watching price move higher or lower, I'm looking at every single week. You don't need the quadrants |
| 822 | 02:24:23 --> 02:24:33 | for this. When price was up here, if we thought price was going to go higher, go look at all times I'm trading when I'm doing my executions, I'm adding pyramid |
| 823 | 02:24:33 --> 02:24:44 | in, if there's a wick that it's trading back down into, you'll see me entering at it. Look where it goes right there. And what is that little movement below |
| 824 | 02:24:44 --> 02:24:55 | it? What's that called? The Mohawk it's perfectly permissible. That's exactly what the algorithms gonna want to do to offer what smart money that oh, that has |
| 825 | 02:24:55 --> 02:25:03 | an algorithm that's going to handshake with it. Okay, here's the conspiracy that most Study, you're going to say it doesn't exist. But I'm telling you, when you |
| 826 | 02:25:03 --> 02:25:09 | start looking for it like this, you're gonna see it's there all the time, then you're going to really have a problem sleeping at night, because you've been |
| 827 | 02:25:09 --> 02:25:22 | believing in bones, your fucking bands. So right in here, we have a constant encouragement, that price level is 32 806. The low here is 32 801. So we're only |
| 828 | 02:25:22 --> 02:25:31 | talking about what five points. It isn't an hourly chart, an hourly chart, and you only talk about five points deviation below consequent encouragement level, |
| 829 | 02:25:32 --> 02:25:42 | are you going to be wrecked? If you have to trade with something that allows for a stoploss? That's just above five points in the Dow. And trusting in a logic |
| 830 | 02:25:42 --> 02:25:54 | that where you're entering near there should be some movement that supports your trade and it should run higher? What's this over here? What's this right here? |
| 831 | 02:25:56 --> 02:26:07 | Same thing, right? Same thing this is. So if you look at both of them? What does it do here? It's overshooting this one. But it has to refer back to this one as |
| 832 | 02:26:07 --> 02:26:19 | well, because it's also a wick. So it's a gap, two consecutive gaps in the form of a wick. So you have to look at that, that's real fucking order flow, you're |
| 833 | 02:26:19 --> 02:26:25 | not going to see that on a depth of market, you're not going to see that on ladders, you're not going to see it on volume profile. That's not You're not |
| 834 | 02:26:25 --> 02:26:35 | even looking at this stuff. You're not looking at this, but I am. And I'm executing on it. My entries are fucking phenomenal. They're consistent. They |
| 835 | 02:26:35 --> 02:26:45 | keep happening all the time using the same logic. I'm teaching you how I'm doing it. If you're bullish, you're looking at these levels. Even if you have already |
| 836 | 02:26:45 --> 02:26:53 | positioned your entire trade and you're not going to anything more, you're still going to look at price like this as it's forming. And each new candlestick, does |
| 837 | 02:26:53 --> 02:27:00 | it go down to that level? Okay, it's gone past a little bit. Okay. It shouldn't shouldn't go beyond that. Now, it should start to reverse here and create a long |
| 838 | 02:27:00 --> 02:27:10 | wick, you know, candlestick bottom or low or we'll call it tail? Yes. Okay. And then it does this wonderful. Then we open here, we trade down. What's it going |
| 839 | 02:27:10 --> 02:27:20 | to this wick? Right there? Does it need to go to Costco and Kroger Mullah here? It could. But what happens if it doesn't? And it turns and starts rallying? What |
| 840 | 02:27:20 --> 02:27:29 | does that indicate? It's really bullish, there's no need to worry about putting a stop loss rate below that low now, or trailed up to that point. There's a |
| 841 | 02:27:29 --> 02:27:38 | logic behind everything I'm doing. I'm teaching it to you. But it takes time to explain it. You have to see examples of me doing it. What's the logic that I'm |
| 842 | 02:27:38 --> 02:27:46 | using? Why do I trust that the markets not going to turn around at this point? I'm teaching all that to you right now. But it's true to form I told you, it's |
| 843 | 02:27:46 --> 02:27:54 | not going to be easy, 123 application, like you have to look at lots of things. And for some of you maybe a lot of you're gonna be like fuck this. Just give me |
| 844 | 02:27:54 --> 02:28:05 | a supply and demand zone indicator and move on a day. And hope I hope I make money. Okay. Like I said, I'm not everybody's mentor. But for the freaks out |
| 845 | 02:28:05 --> 02:28:14 | there. They just simply want to know why this market is doing what it's doing. I'm teaching it to you. Look how clean these highs are. Yeah, look out rain read |
| 846 | 02:28:14 --> 02:28:24 | up into it. That's not random. So even if you're looking at this price action right in here, all these wicks and stuff, I love that. I love when there's these |
| 847 | 02:28:24 --> 02:28:34 | wicks and convergences of of tails and candlestick wicks together, and I have a bias and I have a drawn liquidity. You can you can enter in all that. What |
| 848 | 02:28:34 --> 02:28:46 | timeframe is this right here? What is that right there? One hour, right? We're going to frame this Now, granted, and this is the part where you're gonna set |
| 849 | 02:28:46 --> 02:28:58 | the guy up to give me some, some latitude here. Because I already proven the ship this morning. And for the last few years publicly drawn liquidity. If you |
| 850 | 02:28:58 --> 02:29:07 | start seeing all this back and forth in here, and you see all these wicks, if you take that range here, and we're on an hourly chart, draw that here and say |
| 851 | 02:29:07 --> 02:29:13 | you stand this out in time, because you don't know how long it's gonna take for your setups to form, you're waiting for a specific model. And we can drop down |
| 852 | 02:29:13 --> 02:29:22 | into a 15 minute timeframe. Let me change this rectangle so that we you know, what I'm looking at, or drawing your attention to, we'll do it like this. Okay, |
| 853 | 02:29:22 --> 02:29:29 | so you can see there's a contrast right between this area here. And this is a little bit more of a green hue. We're gonna look at this area in here and see |
| 854 | 02:29:29 --> 02:29:40 | what forms because in here order flow is killing new lungs. Not because of depth of market, not because of volume profile, not because of anything else except |
| 855 | 02:29:40 --> 02:29:48 | for algorithmic handshaking. That's what's gonna happen here. Okay, I'm gonna show you it looks like using that little shaded area near we're gonna drop down |
| 856 | 02:29:48 --> 02:29:49 | into a 30 minute time frame. |
| 857 | 02:29:53 --> 02:30:04 | So the idea is the markets consolidating in here, it's consolidating with the expectation that It's going to allow for, quote unquote smart money and their |
| 858 | 02:30:04 --> 02:30:13 | respective algorithms to handshake dovetail together with what price is doing here. It doesn't fucking matter how many people were buying and selling doesn't |
| 859 | 02:30:13 --> 02:30:20 | matter how many orders are supposedly at these price levels, when your depth of market, it matters. Not all of that is a distraction. I'm taking your attention |
| 860 | 02:30:20 --> 02:30:31 | to what you need to be looking at. Because everything else outside of price and time, you are literally being distracted. You're being fooled. It's a red |
| 861 | 02:30:31 --> 02:30:41 | herring, everything is based on time. And when that price is in agreement with what you think it should be doing drawing to liquidity. But it you're talking |
| 862 | 02:30:41 --> 02:30:52 | about something that didn't happen? You didn't trade that right. What did I trade? What I trade, NASDAQ did it perform that performed beautifully? But what |
| 863 | 02:30:52 --> 02:31:01 | is this industry doing? Similar things, right? It's following order flow. It's following the signatures that I'm teaching you and have taught. It's been out |
| 864 | 02:31:01 --> 02:31:13 | there for years now. In this area here, we want to study how price is being respected. around specific discount rate. So what's the discount rate? down |
| 865 | 02:31:13 --> 02:31:27 | close candle? The midpoint of a wick? Any fair value gap or volume imbalance. Right in here, we have this wick. So you want to measure half of that I bought |
| 866 | 02:31:27 --> 02:31:38 | we'll see it right there. Nothing to clean here on that. down close candle here. What is this doing? What's this doing? We have this shaded area? What did I just |
| 867 | 02:31:38 --> 02:31:49 | show you on Delta? How do we disqualify an order block? If it's trading outside of the range that we're specially focusing on? What does it do in here? It's |
| 868 | 02:31:49 --> 02:31:56 | outside of that shaded area. So am I gonna look at that as an order block? No, I'm ignoring it. It's not there. So what's the where's the dang close candle? |
| 869 | 02:31:58 --> 02:32:14 | There? What's the price level that's most important? The opening and mean threshold? So there's your two price points in between? Oh, I mean, fuck it. |
| 870 | 02:32:14 --> 02:32:33 | I'll teach it in between the opening of an order block that's bullish here. There and me main threshold? Is your body. Okay? Did this wick through the lower |
| 871 | 02:32:33 --> 02:32:41 | end of that shaded area that we're drawing our attention to know? Does it wick above it? Sure it does. But we don't care about that. That doesn't disqualify |
| 872 | 02:32:41 --> 02:32:52 | this order block. Okay. From the opening down to the low, that's mean threshold, okay. Between the opening to mean threshold in that area, that's where your |
| 873 | 02:32:52 --> 02:33:01 | order block entry can be utilized. That's where you're going to focus your attention on and where your entry would be ideally taken. What I do and how I |
| 874 | 02:33:01 --> 02:33:15 | use it, is I will enter at that opening price or as it smacks that candlesticks body. My stop is below this low here. And I want to see does it respect the mean |
| 875 | 02:33:15 --> 02:33:24 | threshold? What can it do? No Hawk through it. So you have to be allowing that to happen. But look what it does on this candle it opens trades down doesn't |
| 876 | 02:33:24 --> 02:33:34 | even touch the mean threshold at that candlesticks body and then closes up here. What does that tell you? You're on site if you're long, don't, don't get shaken |
| 877 | 02:33:34 --> 02:33:48 | out of it. Reach for that relative equal high, which is up here. These relative equal highs right? There. See how clean that is? It's so pretty. It's perfect. |
| 878 | 02:33:49 --> 02:34:00 | smooth edges. If you've never worked on your journal, smooth edges like to be made jagged. Everybody will see this area here and say, Oh, that's real nice. |
| 879 | 02:34:00 --> 02:34:09 | That's a resistance. What are you gonna put it over? By stops, because traders want to see that as a breakout to go on. Because that'll be what resistance |
| 880 | 02:34:09 --> 02:34:18 | broken. Or people that are short, that's where they're gonna stop their trade out or they're gonna put their protective buy stop there. So that's where the |
| 881 | 02:34:18 --> 02:34:29 | mark is going to reach for and you see it doing it here. But inside the shaded areas, you can start breaking down price action a lot more refined than if you |
| 882 | 02:34:29 --> 02:34:42 | just simply just ignored it because a lot of wicks wicks scare people. To me, it draws attention. It's like, like, sharks in water. That's chummed okay, you can |
| 883 | 02:34:42 --> 02:34:54 | in Fiji I've been there and I have a real brand but I have a burn on my leg. Where I have had a shark rubbing in another scar. You can be next to these big |
| 884 | 02:34:54 --> 02:35:02 | porkers. Okay, and you're in a cage, even in a cage. You're scared shitless there's so Big enough, like, they look like Cadillacs come at you and they're |
| 885 | 02:35:02 --> 02:35:14 | big. And their scales are rough. And when they bump against you, it takes some skin layers off, it tears you up. But you don't want to be in a water, that's |
| 886 | 02:35:14 --> 02:35:24 | chummed with fish guts and blood and shit, okay? So they make sure that you don't have any cuts, no nicks, nothing like that, because any little bit of |
| 887 | 02:35:24 --> 02:35:34 | blood will get these sumbitches crazy. wicks are like a chummed. Water. It's like a, it's like an invitation. It's like, it's like a dinner bell for the |
| 888 | 02:35:34 --> 02:35:43 | sharks. Okay, algorithms gonna go in there. And there's gonna be a lot of algorithmic price delivery, or not price price entries, with algorithms in this |
| 889 | 02:35:43 --> 02:35:52 | area in this shaded area. That's what's going on in here. A lot of high frequency trading algorithms are in that business. And retail traders and the |
| 890 | 02:35:52 --> 02:36:01 | things that they try to use to trade with, they're getting chopped up, because they're not seeing it the same way. In here, was this inside this shaded area, |
| 891 | 02:36:01 --> 02:36:09 | what is what is occurring in here that high to that low? |
| 892 | 02:36:16 --> 02:36:32 | That's our favorite I got right. correctly identified, right? No, what's this? Volume of balance, you have to include that? What is that small little deviation |
| 893 | 02:36:32 --> 02:36:47 | below it? A Mohawk to get that low price, which is this opening, I'm sorry, this closing value, which is 32 803. It's got to go below that over here. And that's |
| 894 | 02:36:47 --> 02:36:59 | 32 801 to two points below. That factors of spread. So that way to get this price booked for any algorithm that wants that price. The algorithm that books |
| 895 | 02:36:59 --> 02:37:07 | price has to offer that price and lower. Otherwise, the handshaking algorithm that the central banks use the fleece, everybody that doesn't believe they don't |
| 896 | 02:37:07 --> 02:37:14 | exist, okay. That's what's going on. Okay, that's exactly what's going on, folks. That's what makes these markets go up and down. That's the real dance. |
| 897 | 02:37:15 --> 02:37:24 | And everybody else is a casualty of war. Yeah, sure, you might get a victory here and there, they want you to talk about how you want money. They want people |
| 898 | 02:37:24 --> 02:37:34 | to keep investing their money in their 401, Ks and all this bullshit, because that gives them a great source of food that never expires. That high frequency |
| 899 | 02:37:34 --> 02:37:44 | trading algorithm entity that handshakes with this rigged market. That's what's going on every single day, all day long, every fucking day, even on holidays. |
| 900 | 02:37:46 --> 02:37:52 | Even those little truncated times of the day, or trading days when you can only trade till one o'clock or 12 o'clock in a cup the trading off. They're running |
| 901 | 02:37:52 --> 02:38:08 | into their Money Never Sleeps. But in these choppy points, these high frequency trading algorithms are chewing up everybody. And you think this is all noise? |
| 902 | 02:38:08 --> 02:38:08 | Oh, it's |
| 903 | 02:38:08 --> 02:38:13 | getting tight. It's getting tight. It's getting tight. Oh, the CHOP is real. The chop is real. |
| 904 | 02:38:16 --> 02:38:29 | That's funny shit. I love it. That's comedy. Because in that very moment, I'm in there taking traits you will start seeing this when you start looking at it. But |
| 905 | 02:38:29 --> 02:38:36 | if you look at it as chop and you think oh this is you know this is going to harm me or she's no there's no there's no rhyme or reason why price is doing |
| 906 | 02:38:36 --> 02:38:47 | what it's doing here so therefore I should just don't do anything. You won't ever see it. You'll have a blind eye you you'll keep a blinder onto it. But |
| 907 | 02:38:47 --> 02:38:55 | everything's happening for a reason it's all absolutely scripted. So once it goes down to the volume of balance in here and trades down to this last enclosed |
| 908 | 02:38:55 --> 02:39:06 | candle which is a bullish order block here we start to rally then we have what is this the down close candle right that's it down close can learn it Sure it |
| 909 | 02:39:06 --> 02:39:21 | is. What's the opening price on it? 32,008 34 And where does this candle go to? 32,008 33 One point lower why because to get that price it has to drop low |
| 910 | 02:39:21 --> 02:39:33 | enough so the handshaking high frequency trading algorithms can get that price booking rate on that opening but it's buying selling pressure right game had its |
| 911 | 02:39:33 --> 02:39:41 | day and everything in game and Elliott Wave were working today but Support Resistance and the W patterns don't work today. Harmonic had to take a day off |
| 912 | 02:39:41 --> 02:39:51 | because first cycles that's the flavor of the day right? You guys are fucking crazy if you believe that, like you honestly believe that Mickey Mouse level |
| 913 | 02:39:51 --> 02:40:04 | bullshit. Come on. Come on, man. You gotta wake up. If discussions like this and exam post like I've shown all this year and last with real executions, okay? |
| 914 | 02:40:04 --> 02:40:13 | They're live executions, folks. You can't Mickey Mouse, that shit, that's real. That's fucking real. You can't hide it, you can't discount it. It's not Market |
| 915 | 02:40:13 --> 02:40:25 | Replay, they're really happening. And it's the same logic being repeated over and over and over again, that should inspire you to dig into a deeper so you |
| 916 | 02:40:25 --> 02:40:34 | know what, there's something else going on here. All these classic chart patterns head and shoulders and bullshit, bull flags. That's all stuff that is |
| 917 | 02:40:34 --> 02:40:45 | simplified. So that way, everybody thinks they can easily go out here and do it and they risk their money. And then what happens? They don't want to talk about |
| 918 | 02:40:45 --> 02:40:54 | to their friends. They don't want to tell anybody, they lost money trading bull flags, and head and shoulders patterns. So that perpetuates what, nobody's |
| 919 | 02:40:54 --> 02:41:04 | losing any money, everybody only makes money. So new suckers come in. And they use that same bullshit and books, that does not fucking work. Okay? Now, doesn't |
| 920 | 02:41:04 --> 02:41:14 | mean you can't make money trading with all that nonsense, because you can throw dice, or flip a quarter, if it goes heads up three times in a row. And that's a |
| 921 | 02:41:14 --> 02:41:22 | buyer that goes three times tails in a row. That means you should be selling short for today. If you risk very, very, very little money. Over time, you can |
| 922 | 02:41:22 --> 02:41:30 | still make money. Does that mean that you should trade that way? Fuck no. But there's a lot of people out there to do that. And that's essentially my opinion, |
| 923 | 02:41:30 --> 02:41:45 | what everybody else is doing with every retail thought. Any kind of pattern for pattern sake stupid. Moving Average crossovers fucking stupid, stupid. That |
| 924 | 02:41:45 --> 02:41:54 | can't be the only reason why you're getting into a trade, you can't, you can't just do that. There has to be some idea of where the markets going to go. And |
| 925 | 02:41:54 --> 02:42:03 | everything. If you think of that, take a step back for a moment. Everything in your learning about trading has always been about getting into a trade. And |
| 926 | 02:42:03 --> 02:42:13 | that's this industry serves that shit up on a platter all the time. All these buy and sell signals, because the action part of it, that's the itch that you |
| 927 | 02:42:13 --> 02:42:22 | need scratched. I'm not going to fucking babysit you. I'm not going to sugarcoat it and say, Here, watch my fucking videos, I'm gonna give you entry techniques |
| 928 | 02:42:22 --> 02:42:27 | over here, here, here, here, here. No, I'm telling you where the markets gonna go, why you can trust it's going to do it. And why you don't have to worry about |
| 929 | 02:42:27 --> 02:42:37 | dropping out or them stop working. When he who's going to sleep better at night, the person is one than understand how to get into a trade and dozens of |
| 930 | 02:42:37 --> 02:42:46 | different ways. Or a person that knows where the markets gonna go consistently. Every fucking week, every single week, this is where the markets gonna go. I |
| 931 | 02:42:46 --> 02:42:58 | know this, if you understand that, if you understand what the markets going to go, why it should book that way. Guess what happens? That's what happens. That's |
| 932 | 02:42:58 --> 02:43:06 | when your retail shit is going to work in your hands. But see, nobody looks at that way. They look at it. Well, no, this is the pattern. This is the |
| 933 | 02:43:06 --> 02:43:14 | methodology. And I have to stick with my edge, you have to keep pushing your edge until it doesn't work. That's how you make an edge dough. That's how you |
| 934 | 02:43:14 --> 02:43:24 | make an edge dough. You overuse an edge you make it though, you have to know when to use that edge. You have to learn how to handle that edge carefully and |
| 935 | 02:43:24 --> 02:43:33 | safely. Otherwise, you're gonna cut your hand off. And what good is it if you cut your hand off? You can't push the button right? So anyway, that's enough |
| 936 | 02:43:33 --> 02:43:48 | about that. I can't see it. Let's take a quick look at go mix it up a little bit here. Look at that fucking mess. Alright, so let's go to a daily. Now, right |
| 937 | 02:43:48 --> 02:43:57 | away if you haven't already learned this from me, this is a market that I have taught many times that it's an event driven market, which means it's highly |
| 938 | 02:43:57 --> 02:44:09 | manipulated. It is instead of value that is extremely absurd, because gold should be like $20,000. Okay, that's what should be it. Okay, there's there's |
| 939 | 02:44:09 --> 02:44:16 | not a lot of it right now. But they're keeping it artificially held it day because all the central banks that they're getting ready to roll out and the |
| 940 | 02:44:16 --> 02:44:26 | currencies that are going to come up and rival against the greenback that will be gold back. The BRICS nations currency they're going to put in play that's |
| 941 | 02:44:26 --> 02:44:38 | going to be a gold backed currency. And that will be a death knell for the doubt. Because we're backed by bullshit. A hope and a prayer. A fart. Basically, |
| 942 | 02:44:38 --> 02:44:48 | it's when it's back behind. Okay, so there's nothing behind it anymore. The gold market we talked about how it was likely to reach up above real technical highs. |
| 943 | 02:44:48 --> 02:44:54 | If you took that out and integrate it with your keep your attention rate in there. Don't take my word for it. Go back and listen to the videos and the |
| 944 | 02:44:54 --> 02:45:14 | commentary. And we did in fact, trade into it. rather handsomely. There. So, let's let's talk about things from the perspective that things escalate. |
| 945 | 02:45:14 --> 02:45:27 | overseas. Okay, so say the tensions in the Middle East get really, really ramped up. And things get really ugly. I do suspect that that would cause gold to |
| 946 | 02:45:27 --> 02:45:41 | rally, but I don't think it would create, like a meteoric rise. But eventually, when the BRICS nations really get moving with their currency that they're trying |
| 947 | 02:45:41 --> 02:45:54 | to get more nations to be a part of, once that's in play, you're gonna see a steady rise of gold is going to be like, the commercial bull market, basically, |
| 948 | 02:45:54 --> 02:46:01 | it's just going to want it's gonna be one of those markets, that just keeps going up. And people that try to short it gets grinded down to bits. We're not |
| 949 | 02:46:01 --> 02:46:10 | there yet. But that's, that's where I see what all of you hope for Bitcoin, gold is going to do that. That's what I'm saying. But it's only gonna last a number |
| 950 | 02:46:10 --> 02:46:22 | of years, and then eventually, it'll hurt a lot of people. But gold is going to be one of those movers that just just keeps going up, keep going up, keep going |
| 951 | 02:46:22 --> 02:46:29 | up. And everybody's gonna try to look for reasons that go short on it, and it will fail them. But the catalyst and here's the part that people are not going |
| 952 | 02:46:29 --> 02:46:36 | to use in context, when I take my little soundbite right there. And I'm gonna say, Look at this. ICT said this and this, the context is this. The BRICS |
| 953 | 02:46:36 --> 02:46:49 | nations currency has to be put in play, and more nations are part of it. Once that occurs, you'll see the dollar fall to that. Because there's nothing behind |
| 954 | 02:46:49 --> 02:46:59 | it. The only thing we can ever do was do war time, for it's backed by oil in Saudi Arabia is distancing itself from us. And it's allowing other nations to |
| 955 | 02:46:59 --> 02:47:09 | buy its oil outside of the dollar. So what do we have behind our currency anymore? Bullshit, it's smoke and mirrors. So it's important to understand that |
| 956 | 02:47:09 --> 02:47:18 | you a lot of you crypto guys think that you have a safe haven in Bitcoin. They're letting you believe that because when the central bank digital |
| 957 | 02:47:18 --> 02:47:28 | currencies come out, your bitcoins getting debased, sliced and diced. Okay, that's the way it is there putting it in a commodity of that commodity futures |
| 958 | 02:47:28 --> 02:47:40 | contracts in other Doonan was it ETS or something like that? I think I'll read whenever that happens, that's absolute control. But you think you are in a free |
| 959 | 02:47:40 --> 02:47:49 | market, not a fiat currency. And it's a fucking Fiat, this, there's no difference between that and the dollar is right now, hope and a prayer, hoping a |
| 960 | 02:47:49 --> 02:48:03 | prayer doesn't matter how many Bitcoins are in existence, it's an illusion, and you're buying it hook line and sinker period. It was used to invite and allow |
| 961 | 02:48:03 --> 02:48:12 | for the idea of something on the blockchain, which is going to be the thing that none of us want to be on. And that's all I'm gonna say, at least on his medium. |
| 962 | 02:48:14 --> 02:48:25 | Right, so there really isn't any interest beyond this. Do I think gold goes and rallies up into Kafka and coach this week here, depending on how fast we get |
| 963 | 02:48:25 --> 02:48:36 | there. That would be where I'm looking to see gold go to read in here. And then if it's, if it's real quick, and it closes above that, that would indicate that |
| 964 | 02:48:36 --> 02:48:44 | it's going to continue moving higher. But I wouldn't want to short gold, and I don't want to buy gold here. Okay, but going in my head, I'm telling you longer |
| 965 | 02:48:44 --> 02:48:54 | term 10 years from now, gold's gonna be significantly higher than it is right now. What I want to buy at this level right here, no, do I think it's gonna go |
| 966 | 02:48:54 --> 02:49:04 | higher from here? Yes. It's prone to have a lot of whipsaws a lot of deep retracements. And that's why I don't like it. And because it's highly |
| 967 | 02:49:04 --> 02:49:15 | manipulated. To me, it's the equivalent of Japanese yen and Japanese yen is, to me a villain. It's the final boss in forex, because it's constantly you doing |
| 968 | 02:49:15 --> 02:49:28 | things that hurts traders that want to hold on to it. And they do this like really wild spikes? Just look at it last couple weeks? A couple times. Right. So |
| 969 | 02:49:29 --> 02:49:40 | we're done. Yes. Now. Let's look at Euro US go to Dollar first aid. Look at that. We should have started that bounce at you. But the whole core content of |
| 970 | 02:49:40 --> 02:49:54 | today's discussion I wanted to talk about that trade this morning on NASDAQ and it's two o'clock and I'm I'm about two thirds don't get your money's worth here. |
| 971 | 02:49:54 --> 02:50:03 | Maybe you know it. Alright, so we have this individual fair value get them talked about And we're inside that, again, with a down closed candle, which is |
| 972 | 02:50:03 --> 02:50:16 | potentially the order block, we also have that run below here with this. So this again, because of all the things that are going on, and that's why I'm watching |
| 973 | 02:50:16 --> 02:50:26 | a lot of things, and this is the number one reason why I have cut short my 2023 trading to where I would normally trade in two more weeks. I'm not doing it. |
| 974 | 02:50:26 --> 02:50:34 | Because all the things that are happening all around the world, so many different wars potentially popping off, we got one of little Taiwan is going to |
| 975 | 02:50:34 --> 02:50:46 | get invaded before our election time next year. I'm not convinced we're probably going to have a normal one. The idea of Taiwan being invaded by China that's |
| 976 | 02:50:46 --> 02:50:57 | still on the table, are interested in defending Taiwan, militarily, militarily speaking, we've committed to do that. We're also heavily vested in the Middle |
| 977 | 02:50:57 --> 02:51:13 | East with defending Israel. And there's so many things popping off, and we are being thinned out. In our country. We're giving away weapons, we're giving away |
| 978 | 02:51:13 --> 02:51:22 | artillery, we're not making any more. We're letting people into our country that are, who knows what they're here for. And we're not equipped to have all that |
| 979 | 02:51:22 --> 02:51:30 | stuff. So we are watching the destabilization which what the US is doing many times for a long time over the Middle East. We're watching that actually |
| 980 | 02:51:30 --> 02:51:42 | happened to us right now. And if you can't see that, then you're blind. And I don't know what the immediate ramifications are going to be between now and the |
| 981 | 02:51:42 --> 02:51:51 | end of the year. Because of all that stuff. I certainly know that I don't want to be in there taking on risks. Because we could have an event that could be |
| 982 | 02:51:51 --> 02:52:06 | very problematic. And shocking, where I don't want to lose you a million dollars or more, I'd rather not do that. Right. So if I choose to stay on the sidelines, |
| 983 | 02:52:06 --> 02:52:15 | and observe, I can be more calculated about going into this new year. Because I have to be very careful trading next year too, because No, all this stuff is |
| 984 | 02:52:15 --> 02:52:25 | going to go away. So I have to be very careful and pick my shots and know what I'm doing when I'm doing it. And if I know I knew are usually take the week |
| 985 | 02:52:25 --> 02:52:33 | right before Thanksgiving in the US. I don't trade after that for the rest of the year. I don't do any kind of trading at all. Very rarely did I look at |
| 986 | 02:52:33 --> 02:52:41 | markets. But when I started doing mentorships, I had to be teaching them and it was such a dream. And I'm looking forward to having no again no connection to |
| 987 | 02:52:41 --> 02:52:50 | the marketplace until February. So my trading starts the first Tuesday of February. And 2024. I won't be doing anything in January, I won't be doing |
| 988 | 02:52:50 --> 02:53:02 | anything the first week of February until we get to the first Tuesday. And that's the that's the mode of operation I've used throughout my entire career. I |
| 989 | 02:53:02 --> 02:53:11 | don't want to do anything. And other times because it's holidays, I want my focus to be on that your focus should be on that too. And where we're at right |
| 990 | 02:53:11 --> 02:53:23 | now with the dollar index and all the things that are going against it. My My thoughts are this. The Fed would keep causing reasons for the dollar to go up. |
| 991 | 02:53:27 --> 02:53:38 | That would eventually in their typical perspective, when people look at it, the way you fight inflation is that you drive down the cost of goods. And how do you |
| 992 | 02:53:38 --> 02:53:47 | do that you raise interest rates in that way, homes aren't wanting to be purchased because the mortgage rates are too high. So that caused the purchasing |
| 993 | 02:53:47 --> 02:54:01 | interest in real estate. Commodity prices are suppressed because the higher dollar causes the cost of manufacturing producing or housing or insuring |
| 994 | 02:54:01 --> 02:54:10 | commodities, it causes that increase to be detrimental to those commodity producers or manufacturers or insurers. So therefore the prices will go down. |
| 995 | 02:54:11 --> 02:54:25 | But we are in a weird, unique position in history right now where we are seeing controlled and orchestrated famine. So while the dollar can be going up, and it |
| 996 | 02:54:25 --> 02:54:36 | has been going up, commodity prices are saying we're really not going to go down because it's expensive for a reason. It's famine. Okay, just a shout out to my |
| 997 | 02:54:36 --> 02:54:46 | charter members. Look at the sugar market and look at the cocoa market. And when we were looking at a year and a half ago, where they are now. Okay, so those big |
| 998 | 02:54:46 --> 02:54:58 | runs higher, you know, look at meat. Look at feeder cattle. Okay watc we get into January when you see what happens in the cost of ground beef and steak. You |
| 999 | 02:54:58 --> 02:55:06 | like to eat meat more it's gonna be extremely expensive going into next year, really expensive. And the intent is for you not to do it. They don't want you |
| 1000 | 02:55:06 --> 02:55:21 | eating meat, that's a delicacy. They want you to eat bugs, okay? So all those things are impacting the macro on determining what these markets going to do on |
| 1001 | 02:55:21 --> 02:55:30 | a longer term basis, which makes it what more difficult not to trade intraday, because that's, we can, we can thrive in intraday price action. It doesn't |
| 1002 | 02:55:30 --> 02:55:38 | matter if anybody's eaten bugs or not eating bugs if the BRICS nation comes forward with this go back currency and everybody else but the US, Canada and |
| 1003 | 02:55:38 --> 02:55:47 | Britain joins, who cares, that's irrelevant, because intraday price actions intraday price action, there's always bread and butter to be made there. But on |
| 1004 | 02:55:47 --> 02:55:58 | a higher timeframe, like reading the daily chart on the dollar, that becomes harder, we can stay in a long term prolonged consolidation here. And other |
| 1005 | 02:55:58 --> 02:56:12 | currencies could be allowed to trade wildly. And that's the control aspect of keeping the dollar in a consolidation, your crosses like Euro pound, yen, sorry, |
| 1006 | 02:56:12 --> 02:56:22 | pound yen, Aussie New Zealand, all those exotics, they will have extrapolated price moves if the dollar stays in this consolidation on the daily chart. So |
| 1007 | 02:56:23 --> 02:56:30 | none of you should be looking at dollar based currencies. If you're a forex trader right now, you should be looking at the exotics, anything that's not with |
| 1008 | 02:56:30 --> 02:56:39 | $1 in name. That's where your focus should be right now. Because looking at those markets and looking at their interest rates, which one has the higher |
| 1009 | 02:56:39 --> 02:56:47 | interest rate, which one has the lower interest rate, and finding currencies that have a higher interest rate coupled with a currency has a lower interest |
| 1010 | 02:56:47 --> 02:56:54 | rate and be long the one that has a higher current interest rate in that currency? That's how you do it. Okay. That's how you treat interest rate |
| 1011 | 02:56:54 --> 02:57:01 | differentials. But you just don't trade higher interest rate differentials. For the sake of doing it. You have to do it at a time when the dollars being |
| 1012 | 02:57:01 --> 02:57:12 | consolidation. Hello. So it's not just fractions. There's other things you have to look at too. That was the part that was left out of Steve Morrow stuff from |
| 1013 | 02:57:12 --> 02:57:20 | 1996 concepts in stainless. You're welcome that was tossed in for free to just look at a four hour |
| 1014 | 02:57:27 --> 02:57:37 | All right, you see how we've already taken the sell side here with this drop? We're inside that fear by you got Mr. Blue area here on a daily chart? I don't |
| 1015 | 02:57:37 --> 02:58:00 | like the idea that they left this like that. But let me map it out for you like this. Do you see how this this area right here? All the sell side and balanced |
| 1016 | 02:58:00 --> 02:58:10 | by some efficiency or city? On this one candle has been framed with this candlesticks high that candlesticks low? And if you extend it over across all |
| 1017 | 02:58:10 --> 02:58:22 | these candles here, where is the inefficiency at where it matches both sides? The downside? And upside? Where do you see that? You see it here, right? See |
| 1018 | 02:58:22 --> 02:58:28 | that right there on this candle. So in other words, this part of this damn close candle and this part is up close candle kind of matches right there, you see |
| 1019 | 02:58:28 --> 02:58:43 | that? Don't pay attention. Look at here. This is discount. So this portion of this down close candle and this portion is up close candle that is a balanced |
| 1020 | 02:58:43 --> 02:58:57 | price range. It's further increased in terms of its balanced price action is we took this low out here and rallied back above. So what I'm saying is if we drop |
| 1021 | 02:58:57 --> 02:59:08 | outside of this fair value gap that's in blue, I wouldn't demand that's the real supply demand. I see ICT supplies the Mojo and demands price does what he wants |
| 1022 | 02:59:08 --> 02:59:19 | to do, right? I demand the supply, supply and demand. So if we have this area here, it's a balanced price range. If we trade outside of this, this needs to be |
| 1023 | 02:59:19 --> 02:59:30 | the last line of defense and it should not close above this lower level at all on the four hour chart. If it does that, that means that we're going to see |
| 1024 | 02:59:30 --> 02:59:39 | lower prices on the dollar index and then it'll probably need to trade a little bit beyond outside of the consolidation it has on a daily chart. But as long as |
| 1025 | 02:59:39 --> 02:59:48 | we don't do what I just stated here, which is close below that's balanced price range on the four hour chart, then we're going to stay in consolidation. It |
| 1026 | 02:59:48 --> 03:00:01 | needs to it needs to trade above these highs here. Before I will resume looking for order flow bullsh. It needs to get there needs to get above here. Because |
| 1027 | 03:00:01 --> 03:00:07 | right now we're in no man's land, I wouldn't, I wouldn't do anything dollar based at all. And this is the reason why I'm telling you this, you should not be |
| 1028 | 03:00:07 --> 03:00:16 | in Eurodollar you should not be in POUND DOLLAR, you should not be in Aussie dollar, you should not be in anything with $1 in its name, nothing, do nothing |
| 1029 | 03:00:16 --> 03:00:27 | like that. So if you're a forex trader, you need to be looking at the exotics, anything that's coupled with another currency that is not dollar based. So |
| 1030 | 03:00:27 --> 03:00:34 | that's your exotics. And the way you pick the currency pair that you're going to trade is you're going to look at a high yielding interest rate, a country that |
| 1031 | 03:00:34 --> 03:00:47 | has a higher interest rate that is paired with a currency that has a low interest rate. And by doing that, you can be long the higher interest rate, or |
| 1032 | 03:00:47 --> 03:00:59 | short, the smaller interest rate, if it's the first currency name, for instance, like yen, and yen, and I don't, I'm not equipped here to be able to pull it up |
| 1033 | 03:00:59 --> 03:01:08 | on I promise. After I'm done the live stream. I'll go on YouTube, not link to other on Twitter. And I'll tweet a screenshot of where you can see the actual |
| 1034 | 03:01:08 --> 03:01:17 | interest rates for the purposes of using it for differentials. So that they just were expecting dollar to remain consolidated until something more accelerated in |
| 1035 | 03:01:17 --> 03:01:24 | the warfront occurs, because that will actually cause the dollar start moving around. That's what I think's happening right now. They're just they're holding |
| 1036 | 03:01:24 --> 03:01:33 | it, they're trying to see, you know, what gives next, where's the next shoe gonna drop, right? So while they're doing that dollar is not really going lower, |
| 1037 | 03:01:33 --> 03:01:45 | it's not really going higher. So it's allowing other currencies to move around, which allows for pursuit of interest seeking yield, that that's the mechanism |
| 1038 | 03:01:45 --> 03:01:53 | that's always keeping things moving, always keeping things moving, seeking yield. But the dollar doesn't need to be moving to do that. So if you're a forex |
| 1039 | 03:01:53 --> 03:02:00 | trader, you want to be now taking your attention away from Dollar until it leaves it's consolidation on a daily chart in the framework of this outline |
| 1040 | 03:02:00 --> 03:02:08 | right here on the four hour. That's what I'm using for my personal reference. So it needs to do one of these two things that for me to be interested in the |
| 1041 | 03:02:08 --> 03:02:17 | dollar index again. Otherwise, it's the highest interest rate versus the lowest interest rate and coupled with forex pairs, and then go long, the higher |
| 1042 | 03:02:17 --> 03:02:28 | interest rate currency, those short, those short, the smaller, shorter interest rate versus a stronger one. And I teach that in the core content, so it's only |
| 1043 | 03:02:28 --> 03:02:44 | two by the way. All right. And now we can take a look at Eurodollar. Now that told you don't touch it. Okay, and look what's going on with Euro. It's an |
| 1044 | 03:02:44 --> 03:02:54 | arrangement on consolidation, right? Why because the dollar is being held in consolidation. So there's not going to be a lot of discrepancy between the |
| 1045 | 03:02:54 --> 03:03:04 | fluctuations between the two. Because this one's heavily weighted with DOLLAR YEN Dollar Index has a lot of euro in it. So it's going to, it's basically |
| 1046 | 03:03:04 --> 03:03:14 | balanced. And it's going to be a real hard sell, to get excited about trading long or short in Euro because of the underlying pinnings of what is outlined |
| 1047 | 03:03:14 --> 03:03:23 | here. So that's a macro perspective, taking yourself way outside of the one minute chart and 15 second chart because y'all think it's all I do. I have a |
| 1048 | 03:03:23 --> 03:03:31 | macro understanding of markets as well, but you only need to refer them once a while. It takes a lot for them to change. So that's why I talk about quarterly |
| 1049 | 03:03:31 --> 03:03:40 | analysis. So once I subscribe to a view for next two to four months, I usually unless something really pivotal occurs, I'm staying I'm staying with that |
| 1050 | 03:03:40 --> 03:03:49 | mindset. I'm not trying to change our mind about it. So just toss it out there for you. So there's no necessity to go down to the lower time that's already |
| 1051 | 03:03:49 --> 03:04:01 | told you don't touch the euro. Then we'll take a quick look at the pound, same thing. Okay, in a consolidation, now if you start looking at currencies like |
| 1052 | 03:04:02 --> 03:04:18 | let's take a look at let's look at the pound yen beast okay, this market, you would want to look at like this consequent curtailment there and we have |
| 1053 | 03:04:18 --> 03:04:27 | relative equal highs. So you want to frame that going forward into the Non Farm Payroll. Which one are they going to reach for the consequent portion of this |
| 1054 | 03:04:27 --> 03:04:41 | wick will the buy side of balance and I'm sorry, the buy side liquidity up here on for our right there. Look at that |
| 1055 | 03:04:48 --> 03:04:59 | that's a big hole right there. So above all this consolidation. We're inside the sphere bag out there so it could do something like this good trade up here and |
| 1056 | 03:05:00 --> 03:05:11 | and run right down here and take up the cell site here and clean up all this smoothness. I'm not trading it, it's something for you to study. Okay. Let's go |
| 1057 | 03:05:11 --> 03:05:14 | back up to the daily economic currency |
| 1058 | 03:05:21 --> 03:05:34 | Okay, daily chart consolidation. Would you trade this at all? I would. There's nothing in here that would get me excited. Why? Look exactly where we're at |
| 1059 | 03:05:34 --> 03:05:43 | right now. Do you see how this high that candle in that low that candle that is your essentially as your trading range? It's in consolidation on a daily chart. |
| 1060 | 03:05:45 --> 03:05:57 | And where are we at? Right now? Right in the middle of it. We've already traded to this inefficiency here multiple times. There isn't any inefficiency. Looking |
| 1061 | 03:05:57 --> 03:06:08 | back over here, you have just this consequent curtailment of this which has already been traded to there. So where's the high probability draw on liquidity? |
| 1062 | 03:06:08 --> 03:06:11 | On this one? Nowhere. You don't do anything with this one. |
| 1063 | 03:06:25 --> 03:06:30 | Real excited Alright, so we have. |
| 1064 | 03:06:50 --> 03:06:59 | midpoint right here, so the sell side, right. And I think we could reach for it there. So watch that this is where I would use a draw on liquidity for this. |
| 1065 | 03:07:00 --> 03:07:08 | Currently, I would never trade this. The for the, for the folks that are in forex. I know you guys been really wanting to see me do a lot more discussions |
| 1066 | 03:07:08 --> 03:07:18 | on forex. Sell side wrestling below here. All this trendline support. It's a phantom. We've already started to move, I apologize. But I don't really watch |
| 1067 | 03:07:18 --> 03:07:29 | the forex markets all that well now. But the draw would be right in here. That we're upset everyone that would be using this fake phantom diagonal support, |
| 1068 | 03:07:29 --> 03:07:35 | which is nonsense doesn't work. Let's look at |
| 1069 | 03:07:50 --> 03:08:02 | note that right? They're not there. They got what the order block. We've already cleared by side here. So that's nice to know what you're gonna see if you want |
| 1070 | 03:08:02 --> 03:08:11 | to drill down into that on a daily chart. And basically, I don't have the interest rates in front of me. But you would be better suited to look at the |
| 1071 | 03:08:11 --> 03:08:21 | higher interest rate countries and their respective currencies and find the pairs that had those pairs where the first currency like this one here with the |
| 1072 | 03:08:21 --> 03:08:31 | Swiss franc. If that had the higher interest rate versus the Japanese yen, then you could be long on Swiss franc because of the higher interest rate |
| 1073 | 03:08:31 --> 03:08:39 | differential between Swiss franc versus Japanese yen, while dollars in consolidation. If we were looking at a currency pair that had, say, for |
| 1074 | 03:08:39 --> 03:08:46 | instance, the Swiss franc was a lower interest rate than the Japanese yen, which I don't think that's the case here. But I don't know for certain I don't I |
| 1075 | 03:08:46 --> 03:08:55 | haven't been watching him for at least a year. I haven't looked at him. But the interim interest rate differential for Swiss franc is lower than the Japanese |
| 1076 | 03:08:55 --> 03:09:06 | yen. That would be a sell or shorting opportunity while the dollar index is in consolidation. So the moves will occur in currencies that don't have the dollar |
| 1077 | 03:09:06 --> 03:09:16 | in the name when the dollar is moving, you do not want to be trading these crosses because the strapline moves are going to be in the dollar base |
| 1078 | 03:09:16 --> 03:09:22 | currencies relative to the interest rate differential right. |
| 1079 | 03:09:48 --> 03:09:55 | Do me a favor on Twitter if you guys can tell me if you can hear me still because I'm not sure what just happened but everything froze up on my end. |
| 1080 | 03:09:57 --> 03:09:59 | Skinny a five by five on Twitter. You can still hear me |
| 1081 | 03:10:06 --> 03:10:08 | Again, I don't know if you can hear me still. |
| 1082 | 03:10:14 --> 03:10:26 | Thank you, Mikey. Thank you folks appreciate it. I'm not sure what just happened with this. Kick me off for a second. All right, so here we have oil. Now our |
| 1083 | 03:10:26 --> 03:10:46 | hours are already tweeted. If the Iran issue ramps up, if we get into a hot exchange between Iran, oil will go up a lot. This, as long as that doesn't |
| 1084 | 03:10:46 --> 03:11:02 | happen, it just came, it just remains a skirmish between Israel and the Gaza. That that's not going to cause all go up. If Iran starts getting more involved, |
| 1085 | 03:11:02 --> 03:11:16 | or if we start doing things more openly in Iran, that's going to cause oil to go up a lot. So barring all that, we have this inefficiency down here. We can see |
| 1086 | 03:11:17 --> 03:11:26 | revisit that one more time. I don't want to sell short, if I was a goal, I'm sorry, if I was an old trader, I wouldn't want to sell short in this |
| 1087 | 03:11:26 --> 03:11:37 | environment. Like it's too volatile, in the drop of a hat, anything can happen. It's so it's like a powder keg right now. I'm more interested to see not because |
| 1088 | 03:11:37 --> 03:11:48 | I want to see anything happen because of war. But I want to see if we do start engaging directly with Iran, or vice versa. Or if Iran does something more |
| 1089 | 03:11:48 --> 03:11:59 | direct towards Israel, and it's obvious, then you know, what's going to happen, you know, the US is going to step into that, which is why there's all that |
| 1090 | 03:11:59 --> 03:12:08 | military equipment over there, like one way shape or form, it's going to happen, they're gonna see to it. So you got to take a look at what we're not talking |
| 1091 | 03:12:08 --> 03:12:13 | about anymore. And I'm not gonna go through the laundry list of what that is. But there's a lot of things that everyone's been talking about for the last two |
| 1092 | 03:12:13 --> 03:12:24 | years, three years, no one's paying attention that stuff right now, because all of this is the events that people concern themselves with. So it's meaningful, |
| 1093 | 03:12:24 --> 03:12:36 | because it's going to have an impact on all our lives. But from the market perspective, I'm more interested in seeing do we get that escalation in the vein |
| 1094 | 03:12:36 --> 03:12:50 | of Iran being involved more directly, or becoming more active as the theater between it and Israel, because that's when we will join it. And we've have so |
| 1095 | 03:12:50 --> 03:12:59 | much military over there. Now, the the idea of anything reaching out and touching us, the stage is set, now all we're doing is sitting still waiting for |
| 1096 | 03:12:59 --> 03:13:07 | somebody to eventually hit us. Now we're in there, right? Where if we weren't over there at all, you know, it's none of our business. So they're creating that |
| 1097 | 03:13:07 --> 03:13:20 | stage for it to happen. And if it does happen, we'll start seeing oil go up. If we do see oil go up, I'm gonna go to a weekly chart for this. If we see oil rise |
| 1098 | 03:13:20 --> 03:13:36 | on the basis of those types of things, this high back here, you're gonna smoke through that. It'll rip through that. Now, why would they want to do this? Why |
| 1099 | 03:13:36 --> 03:13:56 | would Why would tension over there be poked and prodded and in cost to to build up all through this right here? Okay, I had a $13 target on grill. In in, in one |
| 1100 | 03:13:56 --> 03:14:12 | day, we were up we've dropped down negative $40 a barrel. The, the oil pumps in companies that were drawing the oil out of the ground, were literally paying |
| 1101 | 03:14:12 --> 03:14:19 | people to come get their oil because they just can't turn those drills and pumps off. Like like a light switch. It doesn't work like that. So they were actually |
| 1102 | 03:14:19 --> 03:14:30 | paying people to get their oil from them versus trying to sell it. And that's what caused all this because the demand globally because everybody was shut in |
| 1103 | 03:14:30 --> 03:14:49 | through you know, the, the arm ticket stuff that um, that event caused a lack of demand for it. They've lost a lot of money here a lot of potential sales. So |
| 1104 | 03:14:49 --> 03:15:03 | while they made money here, yeah, this whole thing over there in the Middle East is a perfect stage to make up for all this lost money and new profits. So I'm of |
| 1105 | 03:15:03 --> 03:15:14 | the opinion. Okay, here's my opinion, and I'm going to close it because I'm hungry. I'm of the opinion that this whole push for electric vehicles is a bunch |
| 1106 | 03:15:14 --> 03:15:27 | of bullshit, because you have to have fossil burning plants to make electric cars like that, like nobody's doing the math on that. Like you have to have |
| 1107 | 03:15:27 --> 03:15:39 | fossil burning, manufacturing plants to make electric cars. So I think, this whole idea of trying to promote electric cars, and you can't have combustion |
| 1108 | 03:15:39 --> 03:15:49 | engines sold in your country, in pollution. So this carbon footprint, everyone's talking about how we have to reduce it, we can't eat meat, because cows far, |
| 1109 | 03:15:49 --> 03:16:00 | it's to me, it's doesn't make enough sense to warn this level of change. I think it's a distraction. All these things are distractions for our real interest in |
| 1110 | 03:16:00 --> 03:16:09 | being in the Middle East, which is to take ownership, even if it's by force, the oil that's there. And we have lots of oil in our country, we have lots of oil in |
| 1111 | 03:16:09 --> 03:16:21 | Alaska. It's why Russia wants it back. But we're protecting and saving that for us. But we want to go there and get our hands on everybody else's oil, which is |
| 1112 | 03:16:21 --> 03:16:32 | really what was going on when I was a teenager. And we were worried about being drafted back then, you know, we have a real problem here. And I think that this |
| 1113 | 03:16:32 --> 03:16:41 | is a distraction from them making it seem like, you know, we couldn't possibly be over there to try to get anybody's oil. Because we're trying to go into |
| 1114 | 03:16:41 --> 03:16:50 | electric vehicles. We're trying to do the green ticket deal where everything is go green, go green, go green. And nobody sees it coming like that. If we're |
| 1115 | 03:16:50 --> 03:16:58 | doing it like this. No one can say, Oh, we're over there for oil. Because we've been promoting electric vehicles, we've been promoting the Green Deal, you know, |
| 1116 | 03:16:58 --> 03:17:09 | when meals and clean energy. And you can't have hamburgers and steaks because cow sparked too much. In one volcanic eruption, which happens a couple times a |
| 1117 | 03:17:09 --> 03:17:21 | year all around the world. One volcanic eruption puts out more co2 than any of us can produce in decades. So the science is behind all this stuff. It's it's |
| 1118 | 03:17:21 --> 03:17:28 | really asinine to see the level of ignorance that people have, because they're not they're not they're not taught anything anymore. They're not really taught |
| 1119 | 03:17:28 --> 03:17:42 | history. They're not taught real science. And they, they've spent more time in the last 30 years dividing us. And I think that the oil market is in store for a |
| 1120 | 03:17:42 --> 03:17:54 | lot of manipulation. But if it goes hot in Iran, that's going to cause you know, oil prices to go through the roof. And we could see levels that are |
| 1121 | 03:17:54 --> 03:18:03 | unfathomable. I mean, I hear people talking about Oh, two to $300 a barrel. I'm not going there. But I do you think that we can go above 150? Because that's |
| 1122 | 03:18:03 --> 03:18:14 | where the new? That's where we saw it last, right? So levels are always meant to be broken. And everything's getting expensive right now. Everything is look at |
| 1123 | 03:18:14 --> 03:18:26 | your grocery bill, right? Why would normally, just because they're saying we got to stop making combustion engines. You're still gonna have airplanes, these |
| 1124 | 03:18:26 --> 03:18:32 | people that don't want you having cars, they're still going to have their private jets, they're still going to have their cars that run on combustion |
| 1125 | 03:18:32 --> 03:18:42 | engines, they're still going to have their yachts that put out so much pollution is ridiculous. But we're to believe that everything's gonna go green. You can't |
| 1126 | 03:18:42 --> 03:18:56 | drive a tractor trailer that's electric. You need diesel engines to pull this stuff. And everything is supposed to be supported by are already weakened. An |
| 1127 | 03:18:56 --> 03:19:04 | ageing electric grid. And they tell people don't turn on your air conditioners when it's really hot. Don't turn on your air conditioners on because it might it |
| 1128 | 03:19:04 --> 03:19:11 | might cause a blackout. But we're also going to have an electric vehicle. Well how to fuck are we going to charge them all up? If we can't run our air |
| 1129 | 03:19:11 --> 03:19:19 | conditioner? How are we going to charge our or Tesla's overnight all at the same time? Because we got to have gotta go to work tomorrow, right? You got to work. |
| 1130 | 03:19:20 --> 03:19:27 | You got to go to a grocery store. You gotta take your kids in somewhere you know something, you got to move around, right? So the math ain't there. The math |
| 1131 | 03:19:27 --> 03:19:37 | ain't math and and all these things are to me I think they're distractions because this whole thing is about us getting out there taking oil and when we |
| 1132 | 03:19:37 --> 03:19:46 | finally toss it in so yeah, you know, really doesn't work. It doesn't really have a benefit that we thought it was. We've done the math now and we stick with |
| 1133 | 03:19:46 --> 03:19:58 | fossil fuels. But by then you we got our drills and earlier again, so it's it's my opinion, and again, I'm I'm not trying to beat anybody because I'm sure |
| 1134 | 03:19:58 --> 03:20:05 | there's people out there know more about it than I do. It's just something that jumped on my head over the weekend. I'm, like, none of this shit really makes |
| 1135 | 03:20:05 --> 03:20:14 | any sense. And why would he keep pushing it? No one, it doesn't have any scientific weight behind it. But we're over there now get ready start getting in |
| 1136 | 03:20:14 --> 03:20:14 | the Middle East again. |
| 1137 | 03:20:16 --> 03:20:25 | So Oh, no, it's something, something to think about. I'm not interested in anybody else's opinion. So if you're going to tweet to me or make video |
| 1138 | 03:20:25 --> 03:20:31 | responses to this in regards to that, I'm not going to spend time looking at that stuff. Because like I said, I'm not trying to be an authority on it. Is it |
| 1139 | 03:20:31 --> 03:20:41 | something that just jumped in my head over the weekend, it's going to be a catalyst for, you know, caution, trading the oil market. But if things do get |
| 1140 | 03:20:41 --> 03:20:54 | hot for Iran, and they get more involved as a direct theater, with Israel or with us, like for instance, we have a lot of battleships and artillery over |
| 1141 | 03:20:54 --> 03:21:07 | there, if they allow. Okay, and I think it's not outside the realm of possibility. The guy falls asleep, you know, he doesn't really have the reaction |
| 1142 | 03:21:07 --> 03:21:17 | time to really shoot down that thing that ends up hitting one of those aircraft carriers. Man its own in like its own, like its own, like Donkey Kong. In its |
| 1143 | 03:21:17 --> 03:21:36 | it, we have the invitation to the party in the dance, just like Pearl Harbor. So it's unfortunate. But I don't know. Why else? Would we be over there? Inviting |
| 1144 | 03:21:36 --> 03:21:47 | that type of thing, while still taking take a step back? Who who really benefits from this? What are they hiding? What are they masking, so you don't really see |
| 1145 | 03:21:47 --> 03:21:56 | what they're doing. And they keep pushing this green stuff all the time in electric cars electric, this electric that. And we have a grid in our country, |
| 1146 | 03:21:56 --> 03:22:06 | that is, you know, we only have three grids. And they're very weak. And it doesn't take much for them to you have rolling blackouts and such. So if |
| 1147 | 03:22:06 --> 03:22:15 | everything goes to electric, and we've not done anything to increase the efficacy of our our grid in the United States, is no way that we can have |
| 1148 | 03:22:15 --> 03:22:25 | everybody or even 50% More of our population to be on electric vehicle, charging them all the time. So as soon as summer comes in, the demand for electric goes |
| 1149 | 03:22:25 --> 03:22:37 | up. Because everybody has to be cooled. It's not healthy for elderly people to be in high heat and such, they don't do very well in heat. So it's something to |
| 1150 | 03:22:37 --> 03:22:47 | think about. And again, I'm not trying to sell the idea that you should have that same opinion. So I'll probably be wrong. But at any rate, this right here, |
| 1151 | 03:22:48 --> 03:23:02 | they're gonna try to get all that back with interest. Because you know, I'm sure they wanted to have that profit, and they had to give it away. In greed is what |
| 1152 | 03:23:02 --> 03:23:13 | makes a move, right. So anyway, I had fun today sharing things with you had fun talking about the markets. outlining what I did this morning. The lecture on |
| 1153 | 03:23:13 --> 03:23:29 | market maker models will be posted tomorrow evening, which is Halloween 2023 at 9pm. Eastern time in the United States. So I'll send that link on Twitter when |
| 1154 | 03:23:29 --> 03:23:39 | it posts so that way you guys can go take a look at it at your convenience. And until I talk to you again on Twitter, there won't be another video like this and |
| 1155 | 03:23:39 --> 03:23:48 | will be more like teachings after tomorrow's video. So all the videos that you have on this library, they will remain. I'm not taking any of it down. And I'm |
| 1156 | 03:23:48 --> 03:24:02 | not taking my Twitter down after November 11th. But this is the ending the closing chapters of Michael as inner circle trader, I just want to go back to my |
| 1157 | 03:24:02 --> 03:24:13 | boring life of being who I am is Michael. And it will only exist in the capacity that you see on his YouTube channel and the tweets that we'll put out there. |
| 1158 | 03:24:13 --> 03:24:23 | Nothing's been deleted, nothing will be deleted. And I wish you all very very, very much success using the information. And I'm looking forward to seeing how |
| 1159 | 03:24:23 --> 03:24:34 | the next person climbs up in our community in our industry and how everyone uses the information that they make available. I've never wanted to be a celebrity. |
| 1160 | 03:24:36 --> 03:24:46 | I'm writing books that will be released once YouTube confirms and sends me the the little plaque for 1 million that means that they verified that they're not |
| 1161 | 03:24:46 --> 03:24:57 | purchased subscribers. It's a legitimate 1 million subscriber base with real accounts and I had to wait for that for the 100,000 We're real. We're real |
| 1162 | 03:24:57 --> 03:25:08 | close. We got up there real quick, with 903,000 Awesome followers already on this YouTube channel, which I am absolutely intimidated by that number. I've had |
| 1163 | 03:25:08 --> 03:25:18 | a lot of requests for people to meet with me to do teaching circuits to go on tour. Interviews, like formal interviews, I'm not interested in any of that |
| 1164 | 03:25:18 --> 03:25:31 | stuff. I've done what I said I wanted to do, I've shared what I've wanted to share, I want to go in just trade next year, and try to do something that as a |
| 1165 | 03:25:31 --> 03:25:45 | young man, I want to do anyway. But I think it's time for me to do it. And I want to focus on that. And go back into this observing everyone else, it's not |
| 1166 | 03:25:45 --> 03:25:55 | about me, and I want to, I don't want it to be about me, I want to be able to watch all of you as my students, he will climb up and, and make something of |
| 1167 | 03:25:55 --> 03:26:08 | your cells as with all this stuff, and see what you do with it. I'm really interested to see who the next person is. And because I can milk this and keep |
| 1168 | 03:26:08 --> 03:26:17 | pushing and pushing and pushing and making even bigger. But I'm not, that's never been my real interest. And I think that'll communicate also that it's not, |
| 1169 | 03:26:17 --> 03:26:28 | it's never been about me, I don't want to I don't want to be looked at like I am. I've had fun on Twitter. But I don't want to be that hero, I don't want to |
| 1170 | 03:26:28 --> 03:26:44 | be that. That celebrity status person. I enjoy being boring me. And I want to be back to that. So if I've been impacted your life that's helped you grow as a |
| 1171 | 03:26:44 --> 03:26:56 | trader and found found profitability. That's such a blessing. It's such a blessing to to be used in that capacity. And I've done as best as I could, with |
| 1172 | 03:26:56 --> 03:27:07 | the experience, and the know how to be able to do what it is. I know how to do and what my students have learned. I don't know another way I could have done it |
| 1173 | 03:27:08 --> 03:27:18 | any better than I did. And I'm not saying it was perfect. I'm not saying because I don't think I am a good teacher in that regard. But I did my best. And my best |
| 1174 | 03:27:18 --> 03:27:28 | for some of you might not have been enough, my instructions would be is spend some more time with it, it'll probably be be beneficial for you not to have any |
| 1175 | 03:27:28 --> 03:27:36 | more content coming from me. Because if I don't have any more content coming up, that means you have all the time in the world to focus on what you have in your |
| 1176 | 03:27:36 --> 03:27:45 | hands already. And that's what I did. I stopped buying books and stopped buying courses, you know, man, that's when I really understood, because I wasn't |
| 1177 | 03:27:45 --> 03:27:57 | chasing new shiny object. And that's a real thing, not just in trading, it's in everything. So I've enjoyed being a mentor, I've enjoyed being a part of this |
| 1178 | 03:27:57 --> 03:28:10 | very large in eccentric community that we have as traitors. But I don't want to be more than I already am. And I want you to hear me and understand this. I am |
| 1179 | 03:28:10 --> 03:28:21 | writing those books. I am putting them out there. I am not begging you to buy them. I don't need you to buy them for me to pay my bills and live. I'm not |
| 1180 | 03:28:21 --> 03:28:32 | producing any more YouTube videos. So there's no necessity for me to chase ad revenue. I don't need that either. What I'm doing that for is because I want |
| 1181 | 03:28:32 --> 03:28:42 | people to see that these are my creations. These are things that I codified. And I want them talk correctly with the rules, the parameters around them so that |
| 1182 | 03:28:42 --> 03:28:56 | way you can see it, understand it from the author's perspective, not a personal interpretation, which is incomplete. And it's not accurate. So don't know what |
| 1183 | 03:28:56 --> 03:29:05 | else to say other than it's been a wonderful experience. I've had so much fun being inner circle trader, I've been so blessed to have so many people come into |
| 1184 | 03:29:05 --> 03:29:15 | my life and share their experiences with me what they were able to accomplish, what they're hopeful for what they were doing with it when they made it. That to |
| 1185 | 03:29:15 --> 03:29:23 | me is a huge testimony to not just simply looking at me as a conduit to learn how to make money. But once you start making the money, what are you doing with |
| 1186 | 03:29:23 --> 03:29:36 | it? How are you impacting other people's lives? And some of you Okay, some of you have taken it and just made mentorships and I'm not proud of those things. |
| 1187 | 03:29:37 --> 03:29:44 | And I don't I'm not trying to kick sand anybody's face as I'm walking out the door. But I never did this to create copycats i That that was never my |
| 1188 | 03:29:44 --> 03:29:55 | inspiration to do it. But I have a lot of students that have done saying things that are remarkable where they've blessed other people. They've helped people |
| 1189 | 03:29:56 --> 03:30:06 | when they didn't need it to be significant in the sight of other people, they've shared it privately with me. They don't go out there in public and grandstand |
| 1190 | 03:30:06 --> 03:30:14 | and say, This is what I've done. of date, I've gave this to charity, I did this for that person. When you do that you receive your reward. |
| 1191 | 03:30:15 --> 03:30:24 | You've done that, for the sake of getting clout or recognition for it. And if you're going to do those types of things, do it anonymously. That's the better |
| 1192 | 03:30:24 --> 03:30:35 | way of doing it. And I hope that all this newfound success many of you have now you don't let go to your head like it did me when I was younger. You invite all |
| 1193 | 03:30:35 --> 03:30:43 | the wrong people in your life, and you'll have to live your life like I did. Divided. Certain people know certain things other people don't know other |
| 1194 | 03:30:43 --> 03:30:58 | things. And it sucks. It sucks to not live the way you want to live, because you invited people that are just trying to take from you. And a lot of you young |
| 1195 | 03:30:58 --> 03:31:13 | men, young ladies too. If you take yourself on to social media, and you broadcast that you're a fluent now. And you're making lots of money, there's |
| 1196 | 03:31:13 --> 03:31:21 | always out there someone that's going to try to latch on to you for opportunity sake, to try to take something from you. That's undeserved. Yeah, be real |
| 1197 | 03:31:21 --> 03:31:37 | careful. And it's not just make a lot of money. It's not just online clout. A lot of you wouldn't like to have the level of recognition, where people come to |
| 1198 | 03:31:37 --> 03:31:45 | your house knocking on your door just to meet you leaving letters on your door and packages, you don't know what's inside these things. Like I don't, I don't |
| 1199 | 03:31:45 --> 03:31:55 | want to open up a lot of stuff I get sent to me. So please don't send me anything. It's dangerous. I don't feel safe doing it. And I feel uncomfortable |
| 1200 | 03:31:55 --> 03:32:03 | saying those things because I know some of you are well intentioned individuals you just want to get I've had some wonderful letters and gifts and cards and |
| 1201 | 03:32:03 --> 03:32:14 | things sent to me. But I can't trust any of that going forward, because the things are getting stupid like crazy. And I have a family that I have to worry |
| 1202 | 03:32:14 --> 03:32:29 | about. And some of you even in your well intended decisions that you thought it was harmless to come visit me. I'm not comfortable with that. And you found out |
| 1203 | 03:32:29 --> 03:32:39 | that I'm not real, warmed up to the idea that and I told you, it's why you don't want to meet your heroes, and you certainly don't want to meet me. When I talk |
| 1204 | 03:32:39 --> 03:32:47 | to you in this capacity, I'm talking to you because I'm talking to my children. And you're hearing me talk to you sincerely because I sincerely mean what I'm |
| 1205 | 03:32:47 --> 03:32:57 | saying to my kids. So that developed a rapport between us. And over time, as I've learned more about some of you individually. And some of my personal |
| 1206 | 03:32:57 --> 03:33:05 | students would make themselves more known to me. So sometimes I will talk to them. And I'll tell them, I'm going to be talking to you today when I'm talking |
| 1207 | 03:33:05 --> 03:33:20 | about that and you know that you are. But right now I'm talking to you as my student base. I want my personal life to be exactly the way it was. I don't want |
| 1208 | 03:33:20 --> 03:33:30 | people contacting me to do interviews to do teaching circuits come over here. We want to do a keynote, keynote speaker, do this teach us come to work for us |
| 1209 | 03:33:30 --> 03:33:38 | teach our prop firm company, I'm not doing that stuff. I'm not doing any of that stuff. I'm not interested in it. I don't need any of that money. I don't need |
| 1210 | 03:33:38 --> 03:33:50 | any notoriety. And I don't know how else to communicate it. Like if I was here for that I'd be staying around. I'm at the highest point that I've ever been. I |
| 1211 | 03:33:50 --> 03:34:00 | don't want to be any more than this. I'm uncomfortable where I'm at right now. I'm introverted. And I only sound like an extrovert when I had the comfort of |
| 1212 | 03:34:00 --> 03:34:12 | being in a bubble, and I can talk openly. But I would never talk openly in front of any money like a crowd of people. I wouldn't I wouldn't do that. I wouldn't |
| 1213 | 03:34:12 --> 03:34:25 | do it. It's intimidating to me. I'm uncomfortable in that situation. And unusually the most quiet person in the public setting. It took a lot for me to |
| 1214 | 03:34:25 --> 03:34:36 | want to talk to all of you. It took a lot. But once I warmed up to the idea you can see almost shut up. Look at this goodbye. It's taken me a long time, isn't |
| 1215 | 03:34:36 --> 03:34:39 | it? So |
| 1216 | 03:34:45 --> 03:34:59 | I want you to understand that I have done everything that I could do to make it reachable. Something you could get if you put the effort in. I can honestly say |
| 1217 | 03:34:59 --> 03:35:10 | that I I could not personally me, I cannot do it any better than I did. And if I try, it's just gonna frustrate me because I already know that I've done as much |
| 1218 | 03:35:10 --> 03:35:20 | as I humanly personally can do. If you have not learned how to do it, to spend a little bit more time, how much time whatever you're willing to put into it, if |
| 1219 | 03:35:20 --> 03:35:27 | it doesn't get you to where you want to be at, then just submit to the idea that, you know, I failed as a teacher and go along with the rest of your life |
| 1220 | 03:35:27 --> 03:35:37 | doing something else. And I wish you continued success, whatever it is, I don't want you not to be successful, I want you to be successful. And even if it's |
| 1221 | 03:35:37 --> 03:35:45 | something that somebody else is doing, it's nothing like what I've taught, I want all of you to do, well, I'm interested in seeing all of you, I want to see |
| 1222 | 03:35:45 --> 03:35:55 | the next person rise up in how they conduct themselves in what do they do with it. Because there's always gonna be somebody else is always gonna be somebody |
| 1223 | 03:35:55 --> 03:36:06 | else that comes up and gets a lot of the attention and stuff. And I want to give it away, I don't want to have this seat. I don't want this. It's very, very |
| 1224 | 03:36:06 --> 03:36:17 | intimidating to know that you 1000s of people hang on any word that I post on a tweet, or any word that I speak inside of a live stream. It's it's very |
| 1225 | 03:36:17 --> 03:36:28 | intimidating, especially knowing that I've had people that had worked very hard to do these things, and try to learn how to overcome their own problems. And |
| 1226 | 03:36:28 --> 03:36:41 | they are not successful overcoming their personal problems. And a human being like a dime, you know, I wrestle with things. Put in a situation where you're |
| 1227 | 03:36:42 --> 03:36:53 | potentially able to make a lot of money, but you haven't really fixed yourself yet. That's a recipe for disaster. And in today's climate, where everybody gets |
| 1228 | 03:36:53 --> 03:37:03 | to be able to fault somebody else except for themselves. Yeah, maybe there was a different time, maybe if it was in in the 90s. Still, I probably would stay with |
| 1229 | 03:37:03 --> 03:37:14 | it longer. But so many people have an entitlement mindset right now. And it's a so it's everything, everything's a victimhood mentality. And you owe me, you |
| 1230 | 03:37:14 --> 03:37:29 | should have been more than this. And you should have did more than that. I'll do well with those viewpoints. Nobody would really. So I've made my core content |
| 1231 | 03:37:29 --> 03:37:40 | available. It's only YouTube channel, you want to study note, or study guide, go through month one through 12. There's your study guide. Go at your own pace. |
| 1232 | 03:37:41 --> 03:37:52 | Don't try to do too much at one time. Expect it's gonna take you a lot of time to understand it all. Listen to the live streams. Like today, I covered a lot of |
| 1233 | 03:37:52 --> 03:38:03 | stuff today that were really was intended to be just in the books. But to prove it, I'm not trying to sell books to make money. Because I already know the first |
| 1234 | 03:38:03 --> 03:38:10 | week it's out there. It's going to be all over telegram. So again, don't buy my fucking book, just go on the telegram channels and you'll see it, it's there. |
| 1235 | 03:38:11 --> 03:38:20 | give a flying fuck how much money those books make, I don't care. I'm not doing it for the purposes of making the money. I'm doing it so that way. It's as ISBN |
| 1236 | 03:38:20 --> 03:38:31 | number two associated with me, I'm the author. And you'll see I was the one that put the stuff out there in its proper context, the right way. And that's all I |
| 1237 | 03:38:31 --> 03:38:46 | wanted. Because every book will close with me saying let's say right now. I was not deserving to have this information. I didn't earn it. I did not deserve it. |
| 1238 | 03:38:48 --> 03:38:58 | I prayed a lot for it. Not for this specifically because I didn't know this existed. But I wanted to learn how to be able to see this stuff before happened. |
| 1239 | 03:38:59 --> 03:39:13 | And I am of the opinion that many of you are uncomfortable not to talk about God. Tell me you may be atheists, some of you may believe in a different God. |
| 1240 | 03:39:14 --> 03:39:32 | But I believe I had very extraordinary experiences where I would have never known this otherwise. Look at it. Look at it. Really take a step back and look |
| 1241 | 03:39:32 --> 03:39:42 | at when you hear these people say that this is a rebranded retail stuff. There's nothing like this anywhere else. And there's no one else out there doing what |
| 1242 | 03:39:42 --> 03:39:51 | I'm doing. proving it with executions, proving and annotating it live as it's happening. I went on live streams with you. I told you every individual candle |
| 1243 | 03:39:51 --> 03:40:03 | what it should do what it shouldn't do. I can do this in a courtroom. I can do it right in from the CFTC See, I can do it every day of the week. I am not |
| 1244 | 03:40:03 --> 03:40:14 | intimidated by that. I'm not afraid of that. And it doesn't matter how many times you say it's not real, it doesn't change the fact that it is. And believe |
| 1245 | 03:40:14 --> 03:40:26 | me, while I was learning how to do this, I was astonished. It was scary. I'm getting butterflies in my stomach now all over again, thinking about was it? Am |
| 1246 | 03:40:26 --> 03:40:27 | I safe knowing this? |
| 1247 | 03:40:35 --> 03:40:42 | It took a long time for me to build the courage up when I was on baby pips because you have knowing they have no idea how many times I've sat and thought, |
| 1248 | 03:40:43 --> 03:40:51 | Do I really want to start talking about this up ahead publicly? Do I really want to do this? Do I really want to do it. So slowly, just put one toe in the water |
| 1249 | 03:40:51 --> 03:41:06 | at a time and see what the reaction going to be? What's your reaction really, if I do a little bit more was rationally if I do a little bit more. And where I'm |
| 1250 | 03:41:06 --> 03:41:08 | at right now, I don't want to go any further. |
| 1251 | 03:41:14 --> 03:41:20 | I don't want you wondering how much more there is, because it doesn't make a difference how much more it is, because I'm not going to teach it |
| 1252 | 03:41:26 --> 03:41:40 | you have more than enough more than anyone will ever need any more, which is going to just compound the level of confusion, decision on where you're going to |
| 1253 | 03:41:40 --> 03:41:49 | settle in on your own. This is the thing you're going to trade with is the thing you're going to study price action and work around building your own model. And |
| 1254 | 03:41:49 --> 03:41:59 | that's what I give you, I'll give you a way of reading price action. I promise you, a here's a one trick pony, and it's going to make it easy for you to make |
| 1255 | 03:41:59 --> 03:42:08 | money for the rest of your life. That didn't happen. I never promised that I promised and guaranteed that I would teach you know how I read price action. If |
| 1256 | 03:42:08 --> 03:42:22 | you learn this, you will read price action better than anybody else on this planet. Fill in the blank. And I see some of my students in what they're able to |
| 1257 | 03:42:22 --> 03:42:34 | do in markets that I don't even trade. And I am so proud. I'm so proud. That's not arrogance. I'm very proud that you stuck with it. And for the folks that |
| 1258 | 03:42:34 --> 03:42:45 | haven't got there yet. Trust me, every one of those individuals, every single one of them had moments where they wanted to give up. I need to think about it. |
| 1259 | 03:42:45 --> 03:42:57 | I was hearing voices telling me look here and I would see it. And then I would doubt it immediately. And then I watched that happen. Sounds crazy, right? |
| 1260 | 03:42:57 --> 03:43:10 | Sounds nuts. Right? But what happens when that voice is right all the time. You take notice last year. And then it became Wow. This is what I'm supposed to be |
| 1261 | 03:43:10 --> 03:43:19 | paying attention to let me look at this. Let me look at that. I mean, look at this. And you feel like someone's in the room with you. Not scary. not |
| 1262 | 03:43:19 --> 03:43:32 | intimidating, but comforting, but you're not alone. And when I wanted to throw in the towel and quit, never want to do anything with this stuff ever again. A |
| 1263 | 03:43:32 --> 03:43:46 | level of comfort that I've never known before. That's what was there. You might want to say you could have been an angel, for that have been the Lord Himself. |
| 1264 | 03:43:46 --> 03:43:57 | Could have been, you know, I'm sure some of you probably think it's lunacy madness. That's fine. I've been trolled with it already. I've already very sheer |
| 1265 | 03:43:57 --> 03:44:06 | testimonies. And it's made its way on YouTube and people are making ad revenue off of it. I'm not gonna do anything about it. Because if I did, it means I'm |
| 1266 | 03:44:06 --> 03:44:21 | ashamed of it. And I'm not. I'm not deserving of those experiences. I'm a sinner. A sin every day. You hear how I talk when I lose control. Every one of |
| 1267 | 03:44:21 --> 03:44:29 | you are like that. Even the ones that are pious and pretend that you're better than me. You want to send me emails or text messages. You shouldn't do this. You |
| 1268 | 03:44:29 --> 03:44:33 | shouldn't do that. Clean your own closet. I'm human |
| 1269 | 03:44:42 --> 03:44:57 | there's a lot of things I wish I could go back and teach sooner than I did. Wish there was some subjects that I wish I could talk openly about. I can't |
| 1270 | 03:45:03 --> 03:45:13 | And you just gonna have to accept the fact that that's good enough. Because I'm not going to teach any more than I am not going to divulge anything more than |
| 1271 | 03:45:13 --> 03:45:30 | it. But the idea of it not working, that's been canceled. The idea of it not being transferable. That's been cancelled. Anything being remotely close to it, |
| 1272 | 03:45:30 --> 03:45:51 | that's laughable. So in a lot of ways, it sounds like when I say these are my concepts, they're my concepts, because I was given them to codify them, not from |
| 1273 | 03:45:51 --> 03:46:03 | any one person, not not anyone that we know, in our day to day lives or in his industry, no one taught them to me. But when I say I claim authorship of it, |
| 1274 | 03:46:04 --> 03:46:18 | their mind, because I was the intimate sharing them with all of you. I am aware that they were gifted to me. I can't have this person stand next to me and say, |
| 1275 | 03:46:18 --> 03:46:29 | here's this person. And I know something I literally was looking at things over the weekend, where people were making fun of the fact that I talk about God and |
| 1276 | 03:46:29 --> 03:46:38 | I give him all the praise and the glory, because it's his. He's in control of everything. Everything. |
| 1277 | 03:46:44 --> 03:46:57 | Kingdoms are set up by him and kingdoms are put down by him. Kings are set up, and kings are put down by him. Nothing that is, is it is not here, because he |
| 1278 | 03:46:57 --> 03:47:14 | doesn't want to be in if it's here is because he wants it to be. And I believe because my heart was tore up. It wasn't until I asked him to show me with the |
| 1279 | 03:47:14 --> 03:47:26 | express intent that I would spend my life helping other people do. Think about it. You know, we could talk about people that do interventions with people with |
| 1280 | 03:47:26 --> 03:47:42 | drugs and alcohol, sexual abuse, stepping in as a counselor, that type of thing. And I think that, you know, like Paul said, we have these problems in this |
| 1281 | 03:47:42 --> 03:47:55 | world, so that when we can have a testimony that we had faith throughout that endeavor, that problem, we didn't lose sight of who we have faith in and carried |
| 1282 | 03:47:55 --> 03:48:06 | us through it. So everyone's gonna have a problem. I was never an alcohol drinker. I never did drugs. And it takes me to be deathly ill to even take an |
| 1283 | 03:48:06 --> 03:48:26 | Advil. This these markets are like a drug. And people get addicted to them. I did. I was throwing money at them when I was 21. I didn't have it. I didn't know |
| 1284 | 03:48:26 --> 03:48:35 | what I was doing. I was being reckless. That's no different from someone going out there with a needle and sticking heroin in their in their arm, like my own |
| 1285 | 03:48:35 --> 03:48:49 | father did. I can look back when I was younger and complained about how I had all these adversities as a child. Parents didn't want anything to do with me. I |
| 1286 | 03:48:49 --> 03:49:06 | was bounced around from different family members totally raised me didn't have any advantages. I wasn't born with a silver spoon. No one gave me College, |
| 1287 | 03:49:06 --> 03:49:07 | tuitions for free. |
| 1288 | 03:49:12 --> 03:49:20 | Everything I got, I had to work for it. And I had to defer a lot of once |
| 1289 | 03:49:27 --> 03:49:42 | but I had problems adjusting as a young man. And I wrestle with a lot of things. And I've made this known publicly. And I know that these markets bring that out |
| 1290 | 03:49:42 --> 03:49:59 | to me more than anything else. And I'm 51 years old now. And I don't want the last chapter in my life wrapped around what these markets make me feel like and |
| 1291 | 03:49:59 --> 03:50:01 | what the opinions of others about me |
| 1292 | 03:50:06 --> 03:50:20 | make me feel like I'm always gonna have people that don't like me, that's fine. That's not my issue. I've told with them. I'm one. The ones that hurt, are the |
| 1293 | 03:50:20 --> 03:50:31 | ones that they tell me. They tried really, really hard, and he couldn't make it work. And I can't do anything more than I've already done. That hurts. Because I |
| 1294 | 03:50:31 --> 03:50:42 | feel like I'm insignificant. When my whole life has been trying not to be super insignificant one to be significant, because I wasn't raised in a family setting |
| 1295 | 03:50:42 --> 03:51:00 | where I felt significant. So I was motivated all the time. I was always go, go, go, go. Don't stop, don't sit still don't rest. Look at my work ethic. Look at |
| 1296 | 03:51:00 --> 03:51:13 | it. There's nobody out there performing more than I am. And that came on the heels of my own grandmother calling me lazy. When she had no idea what had |
| 1297 | 03:51:13 --> 03:51:27 | already done in the first part of that day, I'd done more than an adult with two jobs. When I came up to do something, what I thought was spend the weekend she |
| 1298 | 03:51:27 --> 03:51:44 | wanted to come home and do yard work, and move gravel. 1500 pounds of gravel by myself at 11 years old. And then when I couldn't do it, they told me I was lazy, |
| 1299 | 03:51:44 --> 03:51:49 | that put a fire under my ass. Nobody's going to tell me I'm lazy ever again. |
| 1300 | 03:51:55 --> 03:52:06 | And that's when everything got Supercharged. Or I was interested. I stayed after school, and my math class teacher. And as long as he stayed there, I stayed |
| 1301 | 03:52:06 --> 03:52:15 | there. And I was teaching myself how to do coding. Any questions I didn't have answers to he was quick to answer. |
| 1302 | 03:52:21 --> 03:52:38 | I learned how to code before I went to college. Because it was a pursuit. I felt like I needed to do that. In all the languages that I learned were obsolete by |
| 1303 | 03:52:38 --> 03:52:58 | the time I got out. COBOL and C ICs. Mainframe operations, what's the hell's a mainframe? Right? Tell me what the hell that is. C++ is the only language that I |
| 1304 | 03:52:58 --> 03:53:10 | learned towards the end was still on today. But all those even though that I didn't get a chance to use all that stuff in the working world, they were all |
| 1305 | 03:53:10 --> 03:53:24 | parts that I believe the Lord used to put me together who I am. Because if I would have never learned how computer programs are written, what the logic is, |
| 1306 | 03:53:25 --> 03:53:36 | syntax, all those things, how they come together, for the function of making something deliver an output, I would have never understood the perspective of an |
| 1307 | 03:53:36 --> 03:53:49 | algorithm existing anyway. Look how hard it is for some people to even understand what that means when we talk about algorithms. It's hard to grasp, or |
| 1308 | 03:53:49 --> 03:53:59 | for someone that's been in the Information Systems and in tech, it's easy. Some of my better students are the ones that have come from that field, Computer |
| 1309 | 03:53:59 --> 03:54:13 | Science Information Systems. I'm talking their language, they know exactly what I'm talking about. The there was an immediate report right there. But for |
| 1310 | 03:54:13 --> 03:54:28 | someone that doesn't have a technical background, it was very difficult to try to bridge that gap and bring it into a discussion where it was understandable |
| 1311 | 03:54:28 --> 03:54:38 | and still hold your attention. Because it's dry. It's very hard to communicate the level and depth of what these markets are doing on a day by day basis. And |
| 1312 | 03:54:38 --> 03:54:48 | the more I learned, the more I discovered I didn't know anything. And that fascinated me It scared the hell out of me. But it also it did. It just promoted |
| 1313 | 03:54:48 --> 03:55:06 | me to levels of tenacity that I've never even had before. And I kept digging and digging and digging. more observations more look here more look there. And I |
| 1314 | 03:55:06 --> 03:55:20 | would pray I'd say I'm not seeing this Why is this not doing what I wanted to do? What am I not understanding look here for years that's what was going on |
| 1315 | 03:55:23 --> 03:55:45 | nobody sitting next to me no one that paid taught me any of this no book has this information in it and when you come out and you publicly display it people |
| 1316 | 03:55:45 --> 03:56:06 | that you don't know about they recognize something this looks like something and they're interested in meeting with you you don't want to meet these people you |
| 1317 | 03:56:06 --> 03:56:07 | don't want to be part of anything they do |
| 1318 | 03:56:30 --> 03:56:43 | I believe that you're going to see a wonderful collection of students of mine kind of come up and you're gonna do a far better job after I've taught |
| 1319 | 03:56:43 --> 03:56:51 | everything in those books. They're gonna do a far better job of teaching than I have |
| 1320 | 03:56:58 --> 03:57:14 | I'm interested in seeing it My only request is that if you're doing stuff like that give me the opportunity to give all the glory to God because it came from |
| 1321 | 03:57:14 --> 03:57:19 | him that's the only reason why I want you to point out to me |
| 1322 | 03:57:29 --> 03:57:41 | cuz I would not be able to do this if it wasn't for him. Like I watched that before I started this livestream this morning. And I think about how it was when |
| 1323 | 03:57:41 --> 03:57:53 | I was younger and I couldn't do any of that I didn't look at these charts with an open high low close bar and know what I was looking at. Like hieroglyphics, I |
| 1324 | 03:57:53 --> 03:57:59 | didn't know what I was doing. Now I'll have that now. |
| 1325 | 03:58:11 --> 03:58:19 | Competence it's not competence. It's not arrogance. It's knowing |
| 1326 | 03:58:25 --> 03:58:27 | there's no words to describe it like this |
| 1327 | 03:58:37 --> 03:58:48 | I know what it feels like for you when you don't have the ability to do it or see it. I had to I had to work through it. Nobody was encouraging me outside of |
| 1328 | 03:58:49 --> 03:59:01 | what I'm explaining here, which to somebody who doesn't make any sense. The more time I spend talking about it and trying to explain it, the more inadequate I am |
| 1329 | 03:59:01 --> 03:59:04 | and trying to reach because the words Don't come close enough |
| 1330 | 03:59:09 --> 03:59:11 | and I don't want to give a stage to people that make fun of them |
| 1331 | 03:59:31 --> 03:59:52 | I love doing what I'm doing. I love sharing I don't like being looked up to like that though. So it's going to be a real adjustment after November because I've |
| 1332 | 03:59:52 --> 04:00:04 | had so much fun and there's all these side effects going on, but I'm not gonna Leave social media and aka stay away where I am |
| 1333 | 04:00:13 --> 04:00:26 | my wife needs to spend more time with me and if she says that it's this or we're divorcing understand that I'm not going to be here |
| 1334 | 04:00:39 --> 04:00:55 | I don't know what it's like to be not not ICT anymore like I don't know what that's like. Like it's it's consumed every part of me I wake up ICT I go to bed |
| 1335 | 04:00:55 --> 04:00:56 | ICT |
| 1336 | 04:01:02 --> 04:01:08 | and I start to sound like I don't have things that can be done with my wife. I absolutely have all kinds of things I could be doing in places to visit and |
| 1337 | 04:01:08 --> 04:01:19 | things to do when your entire whole existence is about the markets. And I thought about this like everything, not dad. |
| 1338 | 04:01:36 --> 04:01:37 | It's hard |