ICT YT - 2023-10-22 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Market Review October 22 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-11-04 09:35
Outline
01:10 - Technical analysis of the dollar index.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of daily chart movements before taking trades.
- Ict mentions a fairway gap on the weekly candlestick chart that could be a potential area of support for the dollar index.
- Ict wants to see the dollar index go higher before considering shorting the euro or cable, and will wait for confirmation of a top before making any trades.
05:38 - Market analysis and potential trading opportunities.
- ICT highlights a busy basi and fair value gap on the daily chart, with the market spending most of the week in a narrow range.
- ICT waits for a specific criteria to be met before taking a trade, and is rewarded with a move on Friday despite the market's meandering.
- ICT notes a divergence in the Euro dollar currency pair, with the dollar making a higher high while the Euro failed to make a lower low, indicating potential market sentiment shifts.
- ICT expects a gap lower opening on NASDAQ, E Mini S&P, and Dow futures, with a potential rally in risk assets to be faded if any positive news emerges this week.
10:27 - Forex trading and market analysis.
- ICT: Focus on exotic crosses when dollar index consolidates.
- ICT expects a large weekly range expansion in the next candle or two, based on the inside range on the weekly chart.
- If the expected range expansion doesn't occur, it may indicate a longer-term consolidation period.
15:22 - Trading the dollar index with a focus on technical analysis.
- ICT favors a higher dollar but wants to see evidence of unwillingness to gap lower, then trade up before considering long positions.
- ICT would look for a move on the first half of the week to trade up in this area if it fails to gap lower, but still favors shorts until proven otherwise.
- ICT warns against trading in markets with low liquidity and obvious price swings, preferring to wait for better market conditions.
19:29 - Currency trading with technical analysis.
- ICT analyzes the daily chart of POUND DOLLAR and identifies an inefficiency in the form of a gap and a sell side unbalanced bias.
- ICT prefers trading EURO over CABLE due to the former's potential for a trade downside, while the latter has ugly price action.
- ICT identifies a potential gap down trading opportunity in the S&P 500, targeting a low of 14,004 31 and three quarters.
- ICT wants to see the S&P 500 gap lower than its previous close and rush underneath the low, accelerating downward.
25:23 - Market analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT expects NASDAQ to gap open lower and resume lower, potentially reaching the 757 level.
- ICT wants to see a sell-off in the afternoon on Friday to continue, with a potential drop to the 757 level.
- The speaker analyzed the market and identified an inversion fair value gap, but the market was unwilling to reach it.
- The speaker preferred to trade in the 15-minute time frame and closed the trade by tightening the stop loss, rather than waiting for a potential breakout.
30:58 - Market volatility and trading strategies.
- ICT expects the market to go lower if there is no escalation in the war in Israel and Gaza, but if escalation occurs, the market will stay in place and continue to go lower.
- ICT takes into account potential risks related to violence and war, but is more concerned about unexpected events that could cause sudden market movements.
- The speaker discusses their trading strategy and provides insights on how to approach the market, emphasizing the importance of being nimble and careful with risk management.
- The speaker announces that this will be their last educational material on their YouTube channel, and they will be closing this chapter of their mentorship.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:01:10 --> 00:01:21 | ICT: Good evening, folks. Hope you're all doing very well. I'm going to ask you if you would please give me a heads up on Twitter five by five that you guys can |
| 2 | 00:01:21 --> 00:01:26 | hear me and you should be able to see my weekly Dollar index chart. |
| 3 | 00:01:49 --> 00:02:05 | Witness see how much time delay there is between me speaking to you all in new? Give me a heads up, let me know on Twitter, you can hear me thank you focus, a |
| 4 | 00:02:05 --> 00:02:22 | Freddo. Tape Bourgh thank you so much for that. Alright, so I promise not to keep you too long today. I gotta tie that myself. Personal. Family members |
| 5 | 00:02:22 --> 00:02:37 | visiting here today. So Alright, so last weekend, on Sunday, before we had the market open up, I mentioned that I was not willing to take anything as a trade |
| 6 | 00:02:37 --> 00:02:51 | unless it was, show me a move on the daily chart with a close above this wicks, upper quadrant which is right in here. Okay, so you can see we've never even got |
| 7 | 00:02:51 --> 00:03:03 | up there. So Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, no interest, no concern, nothing. And I mentioned last week that I'm content with that if that were the |
| 8 | 00:03:03 --> 00:03:13 | case, but I'll show you when we get into the NASDAQ. What was obvious, and what was something I actually executed on. And you can see that recording on my |
| 9 | 00:03:13 --> 00:03:25 | Twitter feed. But you can see we didn't have that we had it inside week. So that is going to take this measurement off here so that we can see it's no longer |
| 10 | 00:03:25 --> 00:03:38 | necessary here. But I'm still interested, see it try to get above that level. And then we have this wick here. We can measure it like this. So you want to |
| 11 | 00:03:38 --> 00:03:55 | have 105774 Oops, I'm sorry. One Oh 5.818 as concrete encroachment. So if we were to have some more time drop down in the revisit this inefficiency rate, and |
| 12 | 00:03:55 --> 00:04:07 | here, you'll see more plainly when I removed the Fed. But that is consequent portion of that candlesticks, tail or wick. So if we do get some weakness, that |
| 13 | 00:04:07 --> 00:04:21 | would be an area I would watch. And I would want to see it support that it's better and that it doesn't do it. Because I'm trying not to pick a top on the |
| 14 | 00:04:21 --> 00:04:30 | dollar index with all the things going on around the world. I don't think that we're done yet with it going higher. But you know, I'm completely comfortable |
| 15 | 00:04:30 --> 00:04:38 | with through being proven wrong. I'm going to put these levels back as they work. And when we dropped down into a daily chart, you'll see what that is. But |
| 16 | 00:04:38 --> 00:04:47 | that inefficiency right in here. With consequent encroachment of this wick, they overlap together. So that's a convergence between two discount arrays. Now put |
| 17 | 00:04:47 --> 00:04:59 | that back on here now. And we'll go into a daily chart. If you recall, and you had the benefit of going back and watching the recording that I livestream last |
| 18 | 00:04:59 --> 00:05:15 | week I mentioned this fairway gap here that shaded color just a little bit differently. So it really stands out. I said that we can try, we could draw down |
| 19 | 00:05:15 --> 00:05:25 | into that level. But I don't think just because we go down there, and that long dollar, if it does that mean that would be shorts, performing in euro and cable, |
| 20 | 00:05:25 --> 00:05:34 | go back and listen to the live stream last week and you'll hear me say these very things, I would want to still see it want to go higher first to the upper |
| 21 | 00:05:34 --> 00:05:44 | quadrant on that weekly candlesticks. Wick that I mentioned before dropped down to daily chart. So notice that what happened last week, we had Friday, Thursday, |
| 22 | 00:05:44 --> 00:05:59 | Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday, we spent a lot of time down in this gap. So between this candles high, this candle right here, this candles low. That's what's being |
| 23 | 00:05:59 --> 00:06:05 | highlighted. So this is about how to balance also an efficiency. It's a fair value gap by classification, but specifically because it's an up close candle, |
| 24 | 00:06:05 --> 00:06:21 | that means it's a busy basi. And it's spent a lot of time in the last week commentary, I mentioned how I was placing a limit on my interest in filtering |
| 25 | 00:06:21 --> 00:06:29 | how much interest I can have in the marketplace. So it obviously had to meet a specific criteria before I would take a trade. And I went the entirety of the |
| 26 | 00:06:29 --> 00:06:40 | week until we got the Friday. And then finally I saw something on NASDAQ that I was willing to take. But by far and large, my caution last week, I was rewarded |
| 27 | 00:06:40 --> 00:06:48 | with that through the entirety of the week, because you know, as you can see here, it really wasn't doing a whole lot in terms of movement, we got down to a |
| 28 | 00:06:48 --> 00:07:01 | four hour chart on dollar, I'm gonna try to get through this. But I want to be with you live with the opening here in about 24 minutes. So here's that daily |
| 29 | 00:07:01 --> 00:07:09 | boss and also some efficiency certainly spent most of the time and look at the bodies of the candles respecting halfway or consequent curtailment of that blue |
| 30 | 00:07:09 --> 00:07:19 | shaded area. See that? So they were they're taking it lower in this one here one more time down into it, and then just meandering around. So do we go lower? I |
| 31 | 00:07:19 --> 00:07:30 | don't know. I don't know if we're going to do that. Because it's Sunday. I mentioned this many times before. Sunday is it's a it's a gamble. I don't I |
| 32 | 00:07:30 --> 00:07:39 | don't know how to predict the opening price on the new week. So I have to sit and wait like anybody else. And then determine what they do from the opening |
| 33 | 00:07:39 --> 00:07:50 | price. So we'll get a new week opening gap. We can see what we see from there going into Sunday, Monday, London Open New York open, and how we how we trade on |
| 34 | 00:07:50 --> 00:08:07 | Monday. So let's go into a hourly chart. You can see how we were pretty much just going sideways all week. So here's Friday's trading Thursday, Wednesday, |
| 35 | 00:08:07 --> 00:08:16 | Tuesday, and Monday. So basically range bound, the only thing that was noteworthy and that you should have in your journal is you want to take a look |
| 36 | 00:08:16 --> 00:08:27 | at these highs here. So these respective highs there. If you look at that in relationship to the Euro dollar euro dollar, it failed to make a lower low as |
| 37 | 00:08:27 --> 00:08:37 | the dollar made this higher high here. So that's SMT divergence. That was a catalyst for your move slightly higher. And then this one down, take this cell |
| 38 | 00:08:37 --> 00:08:47 | site down below here. But notice that we didn't get a close below and outside of that blue shaded area, which is Bailey, pattern analysis on efficiency. tipping |
| 39 | 00:08:47 --> 00:09:03 | my hand again, this is in line with what I was talking about in a Twitter space. I want to see a gapped lower opening on NASDAQ, I want to see a gap lower |
| 40 | 00:09:03 --> 00:09:16 | opening on E Mini s&p, I want to see a gap lower opening on the Dow futures. I would like to see by contrast a gap opening higher on dollar. Maybe come down |
| 41 | 00:09:16 --> 00:09:25 | try to fill it then rushed to go higher. That's what I would like to see. It would support the idea of not trying to pick a top on the dollar. It would also |
| 42 | 00:09:26 --> 00:09:37 | confirm what I then outlined on Friday when I was in my tree but I don't want to hear anything over the weekend because of gap risk. And I didn't notice a whole |
| 43 | 00:09:37 --> 00:09:48 | lot of things happening over overseas that would cause a lot of excitement. And of course, I don't have the intel that would be in northern Gaza right now. So |
| 44 | 00:09:48 --> 00:09:58 | whatever is going on out there. It's kind of a media blackout. So whatever may be happening we may find out later this week. But all eyes are on Middle East |
| 45 | 00:09:59 --> 00:10:09 | and There's a lot of concern about that. And that is being factored in and built in wrapped up into sentiment for the marketplace. And none of it's favorable for |
| 46 | 00:10:10 --> 00:10:24 | risk going. And I think if anything happens this week that is seen as a rally in risk, meaning like Euro dollar POUND DOLLAR, NASDAQ or any of the indices or |
| 47 | 00:10:24 --> 00:10:34 | stocks, if they go higher, I think they're going higher to be faded. That would be my expectation, there will be short lived, and then being met with more |
| 48 | 00:10:34 --> 00:10:44 | shorting. But the dollar index has to start showing me a little bit more in here, because the fact that it's being consolidated and held in a range like |
| 49 | 00:10:44 --> 00:11:01 | this isn't as helpful, because all that does is allow the crosses. For instance, like the Euro pound, and the Aussie, New Zealand, those those exotic pairs that |
| 50 | 00:11:01 --> 00:11:11 | are not coupled with dollar, when dollars in consolidation like that, that's when those fun, related dollar based forex pairs are permitted to move around |
| 51 | 00:11:11 --> 00:11:20 | freely, and they have exaggerated moves. And it's based on its interest rate differential. So the stronger will bet move better than the weaker and the |
| 52 | 00:11:20 --> 00:11:29 | weaker will move softer than stronger. So when dollars in consolidation, as a forex trader, you want to be thinking about, okay, then I need to look at the |
| 53 | 00:11:29 --> 00:11:38 | relationships between the interest rate. So the interest rates between the two currencies that make up a pair, if they're paired together, and you have to be a |
| 54 | 00:11:38 --> 00:11:46 | pair that's not with the dollar index. So since they're, since the central bank's holding dollar in consolidation, you have to take your attention away |
| 55 | 00:11:46 --> 00:11:49 | from the majors, and look at the |
| 56 | 00:11:50 --> 00:11:59 | the exotics, anything that doesn't have $1 associated with the pair, and then whichever one's stronger, versus the weakest. If you compare those two up, |
| 57 | 00:11:59 --> 00:12:06 | that's where the bigger moves are going to occur. If you look at last week's trading, I taught this in core content too. It's all on my YouTube channel for |
| 58 | 00:12:06 --> 00:12:14 | free. But I'm just reminding you all because I know a lot of you are predominantly Forex, traders. And most of my students are forex traders. Don't |
| 59 | 00:12:14 --> 00:12:20 | lose sight of whenever the market is doing this. And dollar if it's consolidating, your mind should be not trying to trade those dollar based |
| 60 | 00:12:20 --> 00:12:33 | currencies start looking at the exotic crosses. And like I said, I want to see it, I would rather see it open gap higher, traded down in rally and start moving |
| 61 | 00:12:33 --> 00:12:54 | for the boss sign here. And above here, or you're at these highs. It's taken off into Eurodollar. Here's a Euro it's weekly chart. And in similar fashion, we had |
| 62 | 00:12:54 --> 00:13:05 | an inside week, last week here. So an inside week, I mentioned it earlier when I was talking to the dollar index. An inside candle inside range inside bar inside |
| 63 | 00:13:05 --> 00:13:16 | weekly range means that the week that we closed, it's low, I'm sorry, it's high is lower than the previous week's high and it's low is higher than the previous |
| 64 | 00:13:16 --> 00:13:28 | week's low. So that means it's it's usually an indication that there's going to be a large move very shortly, usually within the next two candles, I like to |
| 65 | 00:13:28 --> 00:13:39 | anticipate the very next candle that would be like this current week that we're opening up here in about 17 minutes or so when that market opens, or when this |
| 66 | 00:13:39 --> 00:13:50 | weekly market opens, I would expect the beginning of a large weekly range. Now, we may not get it this week, it may be deferred one more week, but usually it |
| 67 | 00:13:50 --> 00:13:59 | doesn't. It doesn't make you wait longer than two timeframes. So since I'm utilizing the weekly chart here, as I'm discussing this, the expectation would |
| 68 | 00:13:59 --> 00:14:09 | be that we expect to see a large range weekly candle. Now, by in and of itself. It doesn't give you a directional prognostication, it just tells you the |
| 69 | 00:14:09 --> 00:14:20 | magnitude of the move. Okay, in other words, how much energy should be shown in price delivery. So you're still required to have some measure of prognostication |
| 70 | 00:14:20 --> 00:14:30 | behind the direction are you bullish or bearish. So if you have an inside range, or inside candlestick or bar, it's usually the very next candle or the next |
| 71 | 00:14:30 --> 00:14:42 | candle after it. So inside candles for inside ranges has a lower high than the previous range and a higher low than the previous range. And all that means is |
| 72 | 00:14:43 --> 00:14:56 | it's compressing. And we expect range expansion large ranges to come to fruition. Now if we don't get it, this is for your notes if you don't get it |
| 73 | 00:14:56 --> 00:15:04 | after to, like say for instance, we're looking at the weekly chart If we don't get it this week or next week, and it's still range bound, then that usually |
| 74 | 00:15:04 --> 00:15:15 | implies that it's going to consolidate longer than not anticipate a large range move. So it's kind of like, you got to balance these things out and take from it |
| 75 | 00:15:15 --> 00:15:25 | what you can. But I like to anticipate the very next candle to be a large range expansion, or the very next one. And then if it doesn't give it to me, then I go |
| 76 | 00:15:25 --> 00:15:34 | right into scalping. And I'm not looking for like a one shot one kill scenario, which is what I would favor in these conditions where we're expecting a large |
| 77 | 00:15:34 --> 00:15:44 | range move on the weekly. That would be great for the series of the daily chart cretin. One side in this predominantly over the course of the week. So between |
| 78 | 00:15:44 --> 00:15:54 | Monday's trading and Friday's close, I would expect more directional trading, given the context I'm showing you here, okay. And I've already shown and told |
| 79 | 00:15:54 --> 00:16:02 | you that I favor a higher dollar. That's what I favor. But what I see here at the open with you in a couple minutes, I'm gonna get through this, that will |
| 80 | 00:16:02 --> 00:16:11 | help me decide what I would like to see going into London tonight. And then going into New York tomorrow. So I'll kind of talk over that as we see what the |
| 81 | 00:16:11 --> 00:16:28 | markets doing. A daily chart. Okay, range bound in here, we did come down into this candle, right here on Wednesday and Thursday. And just found a little bit |
| 82 | 00:16:28 --> 00:16:39 | of support in here. I'm not terribly bullish. I like I said, I'd like to see this show unwillingness to want to gap, lower opening, and then trade up, fill |
| 83 | 00:16:39 --> 00:16:47 | it and then work towards moving lower, that's what I'd like to see. Because I'd like to see, it doesn't mean that it has to do it. I'm not trying to impose my |
| 84 | 00:16:47 --> 00:16:56 | will on it. But if it does that, then that gives me a lot of confidence going into Monday to anticipate further weakness, that's what I would look for doesn't |
| 85 | 00:16:56 --> 00:17:03 | mean I'm going to try to trade on Monday. This means that that would be supporting the idea that I expected going into Friday's close last week when I |
| 86 | 00:17:03 --> 00:17:15 | was short and q. Now if I'm wrong, say we get higher we trade down, then I would look for a move on the first half of the week to try to trade up in this area |
| 87 | 00:17:15 --> 00:17:23 | here. And if it fails to do that, then we would resume weakness. But I don't necessarily see that as something I would trade I wouldn't go long based on |
| 88 | 00:17:23 --> 00:17:34 | that. I would I still favor shorts, and until proven otherwise are incorrect. And I'm welcoming that opportunity to be proven incorrect. The I want to see |
| 89 | 00:17:34 --> 00:17:42 | evidence to support the idea that I'm wrong. And if it gives me the insight, it costs me nothing to get it wrong, I'm not risking anything, because I'm giving |
| 90 | 00:17:42 --> 00:17:52 | you my expectations, technically, but I don't have any hardline risk behind it. So I'm still in that Intel state where I'm trying to get information and insight |
| 91 | 00:17:52 --> 00:18:02 | from the marketplace, risk free. And then once I get a determination on what I think it may be trying to do this week, it's high probability, then then only |
| 92 | 00:18:02 --> 00:18:11 | then I'd be willing to take some kind of a trade or or start calling things out on Twitter again, life. Alright, so for our chart, let's get through this a |
| 93 | 00:18:11 --> 00:18:24 | little bit tinier. Just as really, it's not a market that is, in my opinion, symmetrical, meaning that the price swings are really obvious. You're running |
| 94 | 00:18:24 --> 00:18:33 | for clear liquidity inefficiencies and then go into another obvious one, it's just doing very much the same thing we saw on the dollar index, just marking |
| 95 | 00:18:33 --> 00:18:43 | time, small ranges, a lot of back and forth price action. Can I trade that? Yes. Can some of my students can can they trade on the lower timeframes? Yes. But |
| 96 | 00:18:43 --> 00:18:52 | these are the conditions that I tried to teach new students to avoid, because there's better markets and better market conditions to trade. And you shouldn't |
| 97 | 00:18:52 --> 00:18:59 | be trying to risk anything in these types of conditions. Because you don't have the experience to be able to navigate it well. You'll think that the moat the |
| 98 | 00:18:59 --> 00:19:06 | moves are going to continue and they won't they'll pull back in the range and retrace either stop you out or scare you if you don't use a stop loss and you |
| 99 | 00:19:06 --> 00:19:14 | start drawing down your account. And if you read the comments on Twitter, there's a number of people that got beat up last week because they still tried |
| 100 | 00:19:14 --> 00:19:21 | to do something I was recommending that we're not recommended but I was suggesting I wasn't interested in taking anything last week going into the |
| 101 | 00:19:21 --> 00:19:34 | weekend plus a bit specific things. It didn't do it. So 60 minute chart. Again, this is ugly price action in here. I don't like that. I don't like the fact that |
| 102 | 00:19:34 --> 00:19:44 | they left this even. There's some gaps down here and there's liquidity here. So this sell side here. Salsa here, inefficiency down here. I like the fact that |
| 103 | 00:19:44 --> 00:19:54 | we've taken this by side. So mark that out real quick. I don't want to get too wrapped up in invitations. But we ran out here one more time in here. Again, I'd |
| 104 | 00:19:54 --> 00:20:03 | like to see a gap opening lower combat field to get trade for the sell side here and trade For Celsa here, that's how I got to see going into wanting tonight |
| 105 | 00:20:03 --> 00:20:19 | going into Monday's trading, that that's the extent of what I have right now, going forward on Euro cable or POUND DOLLAR. This is our weekly chart here. This |
| 106 | 00:20:19 --> 00:20:31 | one here, just not all that excited about it. But longer term, I'd like to see a trade down here, as I was mentioning last week sellside resides and here we have |
| 107 | 00:20:31 --> 00:20:39 | an inefficiency with an order block. So we get enemy going downside and continuation up on the dollar index. Again, this is where I'm looking down here. |
| 108 | 00:20:40 --> 00:20:49 | We do have a sell side unbalanced bias on efficiency in the form of this candles low, this candles high and that single damn close candle, you trade up in the |
| 109 | 00:20:49 --> 00:21:02 | consequent coachman here two weeks ago. And then we had not an inside range. We had a lower low on the week in the previous week. But we found support in this |
| 110 | 00:21:02 --> 00:21:10 | area down here. Okay. And I mentioned that that would act and we'll see on the daily chart now. I'd like to see it get below that and act as an inversion here |
| 111 | 00:21:10 --> 00:21:19 | about Yeah, I think I'm correct in saying it that way. But don't take my word for it, go back and listen to last Sunday's live stream. It's part of the 2023 |
| 112 | 00:21:19 --> 00:21:28 | mentorship commentary. So this inefficiency, we went through it, went through it again here and I want to see it go down below and then treat it as resistance |
| 113 | 00:21:28 --> 00:21:42 | and then move lower into those weekly objectives down here. So that's what I'm looking at it for the daily timeframe for POUND DOLLAR. And it's still on the |
| 114 | 00:21:42 --> 00:21:42 | four hour chart real quick. |
| 115 | 00:21:47 --> 00:21:55 | All right, so we've taken sell side here, the body's respecting that fair value. This is this really ugly price action, I really would not touch cable here, |
| 116 | 00:21:55 --> 00:22:04 | you'd have to do something really animated to the downside before I would participate in this one. So just know that while I have cosine and said what I'd |
| 117 | 00:22:04 --> 00:22:15 | like to see it do directional and where it would draw to, for my analysis, I wouldn't touch this one, I would be more inclined to trade the euro. If the |
| 118 | 00:22:15 --> 00:22:22 | dollar index were to resume going higher this week, that might change in the beginning of the week, if I start seeing something different. Or if I see |
| 119 | 00:22:22 --> 00:22:31 | something at the opening in a couple of minutes, that might change that opinion. But right now I would favor Euro over cable for the week. And you can just see |
| 120 | 00:22:31 --> 00:22:43 | this really sloppy, really not a good week at all be trading cable if you don't know what you're doing. Alright, let's get into index futures because that's |
| 121 | 00:22:43 --> 00:22:52 | where we're at really, in this mentorship this year. And I know some of you don't like that, because you want me to do just Forex. But you got to get what |
| 122 | 00:22:52 --> 00:23:01 | you can get right. Everything's the same price actions the same regardless of what asset class. So here's the quarterly shift target I was talking about |
| 123 | 00:23:01 --> 00:23:12 | months ago. And we were up here trading, we broke down. And then last week, we had a really nice sell off in here. Obviously, they're relatively equal lows |
| 124 | 00:23:12 --> 00:23:17 | here, so their sell side below that. And then we have the consequent encroachment of this range right here. |
| 125 | 00:23:24 --> 00:23:33 | So we have midpoint, which is 14,004 31 and three quarters. I'd like that level, I like to see a trade down in there. But initially, we got to see how if we get |
| 126 | 00:23:33 --> 00:23:42 | below these relative equal lows, they're sellside resting I mean cell stops. So it looks like it's in a hurry to get down there. It resumed off of this cell |
| 127 | 00:23:42 --> 00:23:51 | center balanced by time and efficiency between this candles low this candles high trade off into that there and then rejected that overshot the consequent |
| 128 | 00:23:51 --> 00:23:56 | approach on this wick but went into the upper quadrant, we'll take a look at that real quick |
| 129 | 00:24:07 --> 00:24:16 | just fell short about I thought for sure it looked like it hit that but got real close to it went to mean the trash casket and corrosion of this inefficiency of |
| 130 | 00:24:16 --> 00:24:26 | the wick we could reach at the same way as any other gap traded there and then progressively move lower. So I want to see it gap lower than when we closed and |
| 131 | 00:24:26 --> 00:24:32 | then rush underneath these lows and accelerate down into here. That's it I want to see doesn't mean it's gonna happen. But that's what I would like to see |
| 132 | 00:24:32 --> 00:24:41 | happen and it's not meant for you to be taken as a trade advice. Best thing can happen is for me to get it wrong and we can see how I would navigate the rest of |
| 133 | 00:24:41 --> 00:24:49 | meeting with that insight. So again, sellside resting below here, got real close into it here. It makes perfect sense for it to be gapping down there below it. |
| 134 | 00:24:49 --> 00:24:57 | And then if it does get below that and we start to come back up, we'd have to see respect this inefficiency right in here. It would have to stay below |
| 135 | 00:24:57 --> 00:25:09 | specifically that low, but it can spike up to consequent encroachment of this week. Okay. And I would like to see it stop there, because in this case, it |
| 136 | 00:25:09 --> 00:25:20 | would be consequent pressure on this fear Vega, then we have the consequent portion of this wick. And I wouldn't even look at this volume and bounce because |
| 137 | 00:25:20 --> 00:25:33 | I want to see this one bounce act as a breakaway gap. Okay, so I want to see it gap open, lower, and show a willingness to want to keep going lower. And, again, |
| 138 | 00:25:33 --> 00:25:43 | sellside in here, just really ugly price action all through here. And finally broke down give a nice continuation with a market maker sell model, which I'll |
| 139 | 00:25:43 --> 00:25:54 | amplify on the four hour chart of NASDAQ, because that's what I operated on. And then we have a bearish order block in here. Market, again, reaching for sell |
| 140 | 00:25:54 --> 00:26:06 | side chart of four and a half minutes here. So it's an unbalanced boss inefficiency here, trade off into the breaker, which is high, low, higher high, |
| 141 | 00:26:06 --> 00:26:14 | there's low in the middle, it trades up into a here leaves a small portion open, that's exceedingly bearish. I'd like to see that he had that nice sell off in |
| 142 | 00:26:14 --> 00:26:25 | the afternoon on Friday. So we'll be looking for that to continue. And now finally making your way over to NASDAQ. I won't be talking about gold. But I |
| 143 | 00:26:25 --> 00:26:36 | will come at it tomorrow during New York session on Twitter. So if you're interested in all the business there, obviously see that their weekly. |
| 144 | 00:26:41 --> 00:26:49 | Again, down here is my quarterly shift objective. People are getting real excited last previous week, oh, it's gonna keep going higher. And then we got |
| 145 | 00:26:49 --> 00:26:57 | this. So it's, it's unfortunate for for the folks that like to fade me. But the consequent encroachment of this bastion of ourselves on efficiency and sellside. |
| 146 | 00:26:57 --> 00:27:08 | Here, I expect to see it drop. And I'd like to see it draw here this week. Again, that's what I want, doesn't mean it's going to do it. But we did work up |
| 147 | 00:27:08 --> 00:27:22 | into this old inefficiency, it's shaded here. So we trade up into that, and then here is this wick. There we got it above consequent Crusher and just fell short |
| 148 | 00:27:22 --> 00:27:35 | of upper quadrant, which you put a spike to win just outside that February gap in the form of a city. So there would have been allowance for that. And daily, |
| 149 | 00:27:38 --> 00:27:47 | I'll be sellside resting down. Again, I want to see this gap open below here. That's what I'd like to see on and see open rate below that blue line right |
| 150 | 00:27:47 --> 00:27:54 | there. If it opens relatively unchanged, then that means we might have to roll up here a little bit and then resume lower. That's how I expect that how far up |
| 151 | 00:27:54 --> 00:28:09 | into this, I would use this consequent encroachment. There, so 757 level. So if we open relatively unchanged or above the close, then I would look for to trade |
| 152 | 00:28:09 --> 00:28:17 | here and then resume lower. That's how I treat that. But I'm preferring to see openings below here to take it right into that liquidity for the folks that |
| 153 | 00:28:17 --> 00:28:24 | didn't get a chance to hold over the weekend, they will be upset like I would have been at 20 years old, not holding over the weekend, because I would have |
| 154 | 00:28:24 --> 00:28:39 | missed out on that really profitable exit. But 50,000 51,000 is pretty good for a couple of hours. So anyway, looking at the four hour chart here. This is a |
| 155 | 00:28:39 --> 00:28:48 | market maker sell model. So original consolidation, I walked you through this on Twitter space, came back touch and we visited the original consolidation here. |
| 156 | 00:28:48 --> 00:29:01 | So it's accumulation re accumulation, Smart Money reversal, low risk sell, first stage distribution, second stage redistribution. But in reading here, I saw that |
| 157 | 00:29:01 --> 00:29:11 | it was not willing or hasn't yet gone below the original consolidation ever sellside is so in about a minute and a half, it's going to open up. So right in |
| 158 | 00:29:11 --> 00:29:21 | here inside this inefficiency, that's what I was utilizing. So I would have liked to see it trade back up into this inefficiency and treat that as an area |
| 159 | 00:29:22 --> 00:29:32 | to use as an inversion fair value gap but it was unwilling to get there. So we dropped down to a 60 minute chart in here for trading up in here and in failed |
| 160 | 00:29:32 --> 00:29:42 | to get into that for our old boss and analysis on efficiency that I wanted to see if there's an inversion fair value got in never gotten there. And even |
| 161 | 00:29:42 --> 00:29:51 | though it has a relative equal lows here, I'm not worried about that because the liquidity below here, which is based on that larger for our area of liquidity |
| 162 | 00:29:51 --> 00:30:01 | here. That to me is a better draw than this will be. It's going to be in my opinion in a hurry to get down below these lows over here. More so than this to |
| 163 | 00:30:01 --> 00:30:10 | come back up here to get to that, because it's already done a lot of give and take back forth. So I favored that in the 15 minute time frame |
| 164 | 00:30:23 --> 00:30:35 | you can see that is what I picked up, got a slightly open, got higher. So that's not what I wanted to see. So and in fact actually did a better job of managing |
| 165 | 00:30:35 --> 00:30:43 | the trade on Friday by closing it by chilling a stoploss real real tight and letting it take me out of the marketplace. So this is again was kind of opened |
| 166 | 00:30:43 --> 00:30:53 | up with with the commentary, I didn't see anything that was so troubling or worrisome that would have caused a lot of excitement. So I wanted to see how we |
| 167 | 00:30:53 --> 00:31:02 | opened because there wasn't anything new. All of its bad. Okay, I gotta be careful how I say this, because I'm sure I'm gonna hurt somebody's feelings. And |
| 168 | 00:31:02 --> 00:31:14 | it's not intended to be that way. But nothing is grossly exaggerated. Like, I'm expecting things to get worse over there. And because of that, that's going to |
| 169 | 00:31:14 --> 00:31:22 | have reverberations in the marketplace. But because we I didn't see anything on the news wires, and nobody I know of that is living out that report anything |
| 170 | 00:31:22 --> 00:31:37 | much more than what we've already anticipated, seen. So there wasn't a larger acceleration to the downside. So do I subscribe to going for a run higher, I'd |
| 171 | 00:31:37 --> 00:31:46 | like to see it, shake off this opening gap, break lower and still go down for the sell side. That's what I'd like to see. Once it gets down in below here. And |
| 172 | 00:31:46 --> 00:31:58 | then barring any kind of you unexpected event, that would cause a lot of people to get freaked out. It could trade down below the sell side here. And then if |
| 173 | 00:31:58 --> 00:32:08 | nothing, nothing increases in the, in the excitement or turmoil that's going on over in the saber rattling and the worst stuff that's going on. It could take |
| 174 | 00:32:08 --> 00:32:18 | the sell side here and then go all the way back up to here and reach for the buy side. That's what I would look for if we don't see escalation. So if we see |
| 175 | 00:32:18 --> 00:32:27 | escalation in the war time, things that are going over in Israel and Gaza, then I expect it to resume going lower. If we don't see escalation, I'm gonna make |
| 176 | 00:32:27 --> 00:32:38 | sure I said that, right, because I'm doing it like no escalation will eventually run back up into this, the first two days of the week. If we escalate, this will |
| 177 | 00:32:38 --> 00:32:45 | stay in place. And we'll just keep going lower. Okay, so hopefully that kind of makes a little bit sense. So because of all the things that are going on, I take |
| 178 | 00:32:45 --> 00:33:01 | a lot of consideration for what's going on anything war related, anything that is violence related, those are a different market condition entirely versus, you |
| 179 | 00:33:01 --> 00:33:11 | know, in interest rate, expectation, or bad economy thinks that that's something that, you know, I'm not too concerned about that, I'll trade ahead of things |
| 180 | 00:33:11 --> 00:33:20 | and, and not be afraid of, you know, the underlying risks with it. But these types of events, where you don't know how bad things can just pop off and do |
| 181 | 00:33:20 --> 00:33:30 | something unexpected. And it'll happen when you're not expecting it in a time of the day when it wouldn't usually move big. That's usually how it happens. So |
| 182 | 00:33:30 --> 00:33:37 | that's why I've been counseling all of you that are listening to me and hang on like every word I say, get to be really really careful right now. Try not to be |
| 183 | 00:33:37 --> 00:33:57 | getting homeruns treat with the smallest leverage use a stop loss. But in here you can see we have this high that low that high that makes this down close |
| 184 | 00:33:57 --> 00:34:13 | candle my bearish breaker because all this movement hadn't yet taken the cell fi which I was aiming for, I still believe it's still Bible objective. I'm not |
| 185 | 00:34:13 --> 00:34:25 | abandon that even though we had this really uneventful opening price here. We trade right back up into here. You can see that candle has my two entries here. |
| 186 | 00:34:27 --> 00:34:42 | Right in here. So it went up, hit it came back off. I got filled there. And then I added more here and ultimately watched me get stopped with the trail stop loss |
| 187 | 00:34:42 --> 00:34:51 | right there. So I was leaving it there in case we got this big run off acceleration down in the south side on Friday, which admittedly I was kind of |
| 188 | 00:34:51 --> 00:35:02 | expecting that but it just didn't come to fruition so that's okay. But that's a nice, that's a nice little run. Nothing else the speaker for the week. But using |
| 189 | 00:35:02 --> 00:35:12 | the information and the logic based on that for our market maker sell model, which, incidentally is my last model for this YouTube channel, I will be |
| 190 | 00:35:12 --> 00:35:25 | teaching it, I'll be sharing it on October 31 at 9pm New York local time. So that will be the last educational material that will close out my 2023 |
| 191 | 00:35:25 --> 00:35:34 | mentorship on the YouTube channel, it'll close out all the instructional portion. It doesn't mean I won't do live streams. It doesn't mean I won't do |
| 192 | 00:35:35 --> 00:35:46 | market review between now and November 10. It just means that there won't be any formalized structured lectures or teachings after that one. It kind of like |
| 193 | 00:35:46 --> 00:35:57 | closes this, this chapter in inner circle trader for YouTube and Twitter. So that will be it for today. Hopefully you found this insightful. I want you to be |
| 194 | 00:35:57 --> 00:36:07 | careful going into this week. Try not to do too much. Pick your shots. Be very, very nimble. Do not risk a lot and don't over leverage. And until I'll talk to |
| 195 | 00:36:07 --> 00:36:10 | you tomorrow, Lord willing, you safe |