ICT YT - 2023-10-15 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Market Review October 15 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-10-16 19:19
Outline
00:48 - Financial markets and currency exchange rates.
- ICT checks Twitter for audio confirmation before starting presentation on financial markets.
02:35 - Trading strategies and chart analysis.
- Trader prefers to keep levels for potential trades on a separate notepad rather than on the chart to avoid marrying the idea and ignoring real-time changes in sentiment and order flow.
- Trader plans to reduce online engagement and focus on personal analysis after November 11, returning to using a naked chart without feeling inclined to share every thought with the internet.
05:08 - Potential price action in the dollar index.
- ICT notes an inefficiency in the dollar index, expecting it to trade above a specific level (107.055) on a daily close to break out of the range and potentially reach new highs.
- ICT anticipates a range between the low of last week and the upper quadrant (107.055) until a daily close is achieved above this level.
07:58 - Dollar index trading range.
- ICT expects the dollar index to trade within a range this week due to geopolitical tensions and fear in the marketplace.
- ICT believes there will be a definitive close above the upper quadrant of the dollar index before the end of the year, but is unsure of where it will go.
- ICT expects the dollar to remain in a range until it breaks above a specific high from two weeks ago (106.839).
- If it doesn't break above that high, it could consolidate and potentially trade down to a specific level (106.76).
14:14 - Market sentiment and potential trading opportunities.
- ICT expects NASDAQ to break away from a consolidation range and continue higher, with a potential gap fill at the low end of the range.
- ICT: Dollar Index may hang around in range, potentially coming down and creating a short opportunity.
18:03 - Market caution and risk management.
- Trader emphasizes caution due to high market risk, seeking confirmation of a weekly close above an upper quadrant before entering a trade.
- Trader is cautious due to market volatility, waiting for confirmation of a potential buy signal.
21:46 - Economic manipulation and currency devaluation.
- Gold and dollar moving together in unexpected way, causing concern for market analyst.
- The speaker believes the US dollar is in danger due to central banks building gold reserves and potential gold-backed currencies.
- The speaker predicts a future economic collapse similar to Venezuela's, with the US facing a crisis if other countries release gold-backed currencies.
- ICT believes a sudden decoupling event in currencies could lead to a financial crisis, causing brokerage firms, financial institutions, and traders to collapse.
- ICT is concerned about the potential devaluation of the US dollar and the impact on people's savings and purchasing power.
29:11 - Dollar index and gold's impact on forex markets.
- ICT expects gold to continue higher, potentially causing dollar to consolidate or stay in a range.
- ICT balances markets closely correlated but inversely correlated, such as dollar index and gold, to determine market environment and risk.
- Trader favors NASDAQ over ES due to faster price movements.
33:37 - Market analysis and potential catalysts for currency movements.
- ICT discusses the potential for Euro to accelerate in value if there are terrorist attacks or other chaotic events in the US or near military bases.
- ICT believes that a rise in gold is likely if there are such events, as investors will seek safe-haven assets.
36:41 - Dollar index and geopolitical tensions.
- ICT expects the dollar index to go up and potentially cause a state of panic in the markets, leading to a ramp-up of violence and a possible retracement down for the euro.
- ICT believes there is no inefficiency in the daily chart of the euro, indicating a potential low, high, lower low pattern, and a possible bullish market condition.
- ICT predicts a boiling over of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to market volatility and aggressive price movements.
- Ict expects the dollar index to continue higher due to geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand.
- Ict anticipates a potential inversion fair value gap, with the dollar index moving lower and then resisting at the previous high.
43:59 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- ICT is bullish on the dollar and looking for shorts in NASDAQ, but is cautious due to increased risk.
- ICT does not have a mechanism or tool to predict the opening price of the new week.
- Trader outlines high-probability scenario for NASDAQ, including gap resistance levels.
48:23 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- ICT lays out a trading plan before the market opens, disarming others and taking no trades if it doesn't meet his criteria.
- ICT is comfortable taking on a $12,000 risk on a trade, despite others not being able to trade that in months of profit.
- ICT believes he can make 50-75k from a trade if parameters are met, but everything is relative and scaled to comfort level.
- ICT will review and update his analysis on Monday, taking into account how the market performs on Sunday and Monday.
52:52 - Currency trading with a focus on the Euro-Dollar pair.
- ICT likes the sell side in the Euro dollar pair, with potential targets at $1 and $1.50.
- ICT expects the dollar to go higher, with potential for a drop to $1 and then a rally to $1.50.
- Trader identifies potential downside target based on weekly chart analysis.
- Cable could reach new lows if the dollar strengthens and the Euro weakens, potentially trading below the sell side.
- The pound-dollar exchange rate may move significantly lower due to its tendency to exaggerate moves, with the Euro likely to go lower and the dollar higher.
01:00:49 - Using intermarket analysis for NASDAQ trading.
- ICT uses a specific color scheme to indicate fair value (green or blue) and resistance (pink or red) on a chart.
- ICT treats inversion fair value as a discount, expecting it to act as support, and resistance or selling when it reaches orange.
- The speaker believes the dollar will continue to rise, with potential for a high-probability short on the pound.
- The speaker uses intermarket relationships to support their analysis, including the pound's failure to break through a resistance level.
01:05:09 - Using inversion fair value gaps in trading.
- ICT teaches how to treat failed fair value gaps as inversion pay, avoiding frustration and improving trading perspective.
- Trader should view losses as paying for "classes" in trading, not catastrophic events.
01:08:30 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT expects price to gap up to the high of the fair value gap, but only if it trades down into the upper portion of the range first.
- If the candle doesn't trade down into the upper portion, the fair value gap will fail to offer support and the inversion fair value gap can go over to the high.
- Ict is watching a fair value gap and wants to see how it's treated by the market.
- If the market doesn't respect the gap and trades below it, Ict will look to short NASDAQ.
- If the market does respect the gap and trades above it, Ict will look to take a short higher up.
- Ict explains the concept of fair value gaps and how they can be identified through inversion, using examples from his trading experience.
- Ict emphasizes the importance of understanding the dynamic of fair value gaps and how they can repeat more times than they fail, providing insights for traders.
01:16:47 - Trading strategies and avoiding common mistakes.
- ICT emphasizes personal responsibility in trading, highlighting the importance of making decisions based on a reliable model.
- Ict discusses challenges with trading on Sundays due to unpredictable market behavior.
01:20:10 - Managing emotions in trading with a focus on Vega.
- ICT wants to see a trade fail and rally back up, but is not trading Forex.
- ICT advises against punishing oneself for not taking a trade, and instead focuses on running scenarios to feel comfortable taking trades.
01:22:34 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT expects the market to reach lower levels in the next 2-4 months, with significant draws on liquidity.
- ICT uses 5% maximum risk for intraday trades, with precise entry points and tight executions.
- The speaker identifies a potential premium range for ES between 4391 and the low, with a preference for the price to stay within this range.
- The speaker wants to see any upside movement limited to this range, with a close above 4391 being undesirable on a daily basis.
01:29:35 - Trading in a volatile geopolitical climate.
- ICT predicts exaggerated price movements in the final quarter of the year due to geopolitical tensions and manual intervention.
- Trader seeks perfect exits, leaving 20% of position for potential upside.
01:32:53 - Trading struggles with focus and emotions.
- Trader struggles with distractions while trading, including son's questions and external factors.
- ICT struggles with imperfections in trading, including losing focus and settling for targets that are not ideal.
- ICT aims to teach students a low-hanging fruit objective and refine their trading methods over time.
01:36:18 - Using ICT and PD arrays in trading.
- ICT: Gap lower opening, trade back up to low, but not to upper portion of gap (10 cents higher).
- Failure of fair value gap in hands of inexperienced users, but proficient users can use it to gain insight.
- ICT suggests using a daily low as a premium array for shorting, with stop losses limited to 3-4 handles above the low.
- ICT advises against using one and a half handle stop losses on lower timeframes due to the current market climate.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of real-time market experience and hands-on learning, rather than relying solely on books or static charts.
- ICT's unique approach to handshaking with the markets' algorithms allows for precise predictions and confident sharing on Twitter.
01:43:19 - Technical analysis in futures trading.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of down close candles supporting price in a bullish market.
- Analyzes ICT's approach to trading, focusing on PV arrays and institutional repo.
01:46:46 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding risk and entry points in trading.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding price action and using a model that fits expectations to enter trades.
- Students use a modified version of ICT's fair value gap model, adjusting it to their advantage based on price action.
01:51:04 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of being content with enough profits, rather than striving for perfection in trading.
- He advises beginners to start with larger stop losses to accommodate their lack of precision, and gradually decrease them as they gain experience.
- ICT's son made money with funded accounts but struggled with stop-loss management, leading to losses.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of tight stop-losses and following rules to avoid impulsive trading decisions.
- ICT explains a trading setup using the ES chart, focusing on a daily inversion fair value gap and the buy and sell sides.
- ICT plans to record a live trade of this setup using a real account, showing stop loss and risk management.
01:59:59 - The importance of self-awareness in trading.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of realistic expectations in trading, warning against unrealistic goals and the potential for impulsive decisions when they are not met.
- ICT advises against punishing oneself for trading mistakes, instead focusing on understanding and improving one's model.
- The speaker discusses the concept of "gamblers numbness" where individuals continue to gamble despite losing everything, subconsciously wanting to lose and feeling incapable of stopping themselves.
- The speaker advises those experiencing this phenomenon to immediately stop trading and take a week-long break to ground themselves and avoid repeating the same behavior.
02:04:21 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- The speaker warns against treating trading as a get-rich-quick scheme, emphasizing the importance of a controlled risk and a clear profit objective.
- The speaker highlights the potential for unexpected price movements due to manual intervention or calendar events, emphasizing the need for flexibility and adaptability in trading.
02:06:41 - Technical analysis of stock market.
- ICT is monitoring the daily close below 14,004.31, a key level for potential reversal.
- ICT notes the significance of a daily close below this level, as it represents a fair value gap on the weekly chart.
- The speaker identifies levels of support and resistance for a stock, including the high of the previous week and the low of the current week.
- The speaker expects weakness or heaviness if the stock remains below certain levels, with a potential objective for profit taking or partial profit taking at a specific level.
02:12:28 - Trading and price action analysis.
- Analyst expects stock to reach new low of $14.44 due to sell-off.
- Trader discusses potential partial profit taking areas in a downtrend.
02:16:07 - Trading strategies for high resistance liquidity runs.
- ICT uses partial trades when trading through high resistance liquidity runs, taking partial profits along the way.
- ICT sticks to full trades when trading low resistance liquidity runs, with no partials taken and managing risk accordingly.
02:19:12 - Trading inversion fair value gaps.
- ICT explains the importance of trading inversion fair value gaps, highlighting the critical rule-based idea for identifying potential trade opportunities.
- ICT outlines the sell-side inefficiencies and potential for movement lower, using the lowest sell-side candle as a key level for entry.
- ICT shared his insights on the current market structure and how he would trade NASDAQ based on specific scenarios.
- He encouraged viewers to give a thumbs up if they found the video helpful, as it motivates him to create more content.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:48 --> 00:00:59 | ICT: All right, good afternoon, folks. All right before, before I get started, I'm gonna check Twitter real quick. If you would be so kind as to let me know |
| 2 | 00:00:59 --> 00:01:10 | that you can hear me, you should be able to see five charts on my screen right now. So if you hear everything fine and the volume is fine, just give me a five |
| 3 | 00:01:10 --> 00:01:29 | by five and that'll give me a confirmation can hear me. Thank you Gregory. Just want to see one more just to make sure institutional order flow trader, thank |
| 4 | 00:01:29 --> 00:01:49 | you. Thank you, Destiny. Silent watcher. And Reza, thank you so much. Alright, so I'm gonna get through this as quickly and as painlessly as possible. I have a |
| 5 | 00:01:49 --> 00:02:00 | lunch the downstairs with my wife. So we're gonna be eating Mediterranean here this afternoon. So Happy Sunday to you hope you're all doing well hope you're in |
| 6 | 00:02:00 --> 00:02:10 | good spirits. And in good health. We're gonna start with the dollar index, then we'll go into Euro dollar POUND DOLLAR, s&p 500 futures, NASDAQ. And before I |
| 7 | 00:02:10 --> 00:02:25 | close, I will look at gold. Okay, so let's start with the dollar index here. On the weekly chart, I'm just going to go through it as I talk. This area up here. |
| 8 | 00:02:26 --> 00:02:35 | I've mentioned this before. So we're working with a virgin chart, everything is fresh, as I would expect, and see if you were not with me like this. And if I |
| 9 | 00:02:35 --> 00:02:45 | was by myself just looking at things. I'm not annotating the chart this way. But I'm writing down the levels on my notepad meaning that it's this candles low |
| 10 | 00:02:47 --> 00:02:49 | this candles high |
| 11 | 00:02:54 --> 00:03:00 | and the range between those two respective price points |
| 12 | 00:03:07 --> 00:03:20 | which is the consequent coachmen here. So at one zero 8.85, that's consequent encouragement of that severe sell set of balanced by solid efficiency. So that |
| 13 | 00:03:20 --> 00:03:27 | level is on my chart, I'm sorry, it's on my notepad, it's not on my chart to keep my charts clean. And you're probably asking yourself, you know, why do you |
| 14 | 00:03:27 --> 00:03:36 | do that? Why don't you just have them on your chart, because I want to be able to be flexible. And I've learned that if I have the levels on my on my chart, I |
| 15 | 00:03:36 --> 00:03:45 | can tend to marry the idea, especially if it's something I really want to do. Or if it's something I've already talked about openly and publicly shared it. And |
| 16 | 00:03:46 --> 00:03:58 | if I see it on my chart, it's in my subconscious that I want to see it be traded to anyway. So between the two, it might cause me to ignore the real time changes |
| 17 | 00:03:58 --> 00:04:09 | in sentiment, the change in order flow, the narrative may change. And if I don't have them on my charts, it's easier for me to like switch up and change gears in |
| 18 | 00:04:09 --> 00:04:19 | reverse my entire analysis, right there on the spot, which, in the beginning, you shouldn't be wanting to do that. Okay, and when you hear me say that you're |
| 19 | 00:04:19 --> 00:04:25 | thinking, well, that's what I want to be able to do. And if you don't have the experience, what will happen is, is you'll end up trying to change your mind too |
| 20 | 00:04:25 --> 00:04:34 | soon, too many times. And you'll just go back and forth, back and forth. Okay, and really do nothing but just turn your account, run down drawdown in dark mode |
| 21 | 00:04:34 --> 00:04:46 | out. So it's just a means for me to keep myself fluid and not try to marry the idea that I have an interest in a particular level. And I like to keep my charts |
| 22 | 00:04:46 --> 00:04:56 | clean. So there you go. It's also one of the other additional things I'm looking forward to post Nyan and post November 11, where I'm not doing so much |
| 23 | 00:04:56 --> 00:05:04 | engagement all the time, but my personal analysis so you it'll be back to where it used to be for me just using a naked chart and not feeling inclined to tell |
| 24 | 00:05:04 --> 00:05:15 | everyone on the internet what I think's gonna happen. Alright, so that imbalance I had that noted. And going back through price action, we had this small little |
| 25 | 00:05:15 --> 00:05:24 | inefficiency here, it talked about how it could potentially trade back down into that, if we were going to correct it did that when it pass it despite a little |
| 26 | 00:05:24 --> 00:05:37 | bit, that's completely permissible, we're not you making a big deal about that. But there isn't really any inefficiency to speak of beyond that in here. It's a |
| 27 | 00:05:37 --> 00:05:52 | small, little, small little one. But it didn't really quite get into that between this candles high. In that candles low. So we didn't get it, we didn't |
| 28 | 00:05:52 --> 00:06:04 | get below this candles low to even be a factor for it. So it just overshot this gap here. And then we went higher. One of the things that I'm interested in is |
| 29 | 00:06:04 --> 00:06:20 | how we went right back up to previous weeks consequent correction that we see that, so the dollar index went right back up to that level, stopped after going |
| 30 | 00:06:20 --> 00:06:33 | back just a little bit and came off that the high of the week. If we start pressing into it, it would need to close on a daily chart. Okay, and this is a |
| 31 | 00:06:33 --> 00:06:41 | weekly chart, look at an upper left hand corner. That's a weekly chart. So if we look at this in terms of the upper quadrant. |
| 32 | 00:06:46 --> 00:07:01 | Here, if we had a daily close above that 107 point 055. If we have a daily candle close above that, then I would expect it to trade above this high and |
| 33 | 00:07:01 --> 00:07:14 | start working into this inefficiency. As long as we remain below this upper quadrant. This specific 107 point 05. I'm anticipating ranging between the low |
| 34 | 00:07:14 --> 00:07:28 | of last week and that level, that upper quadrant. So in other words, we're looking at this as a range until we get on a closing basis above this particular |
| 35 | 00:07:28 --> 00:07:38 | level here and that close has to be on a daily chart, not a weekly has to be on a daily basis. So when the daily chart, if it were to close above this price |
| 36 | 00:07:38 --> 00:07:52 | level here, then my focus is going to be expecting it to go above and trade up into this area here. Okay. You might be questioning, the question may arise |
| 37 | 00:07:52 --> 00:08:01 | that, okay, what happens if it just goes to that level and keeps on going and takes up that high? Well, then it goes without saying, it still remains the |
| 38 | 00:08:01 --> 00:08:13 | same, I would expect it up here. But for the sake of leaving this pre week open, because right now it's 12:52pm on Sunday, my local time in New York, East Coast |
| 39 | 00:08:13 --> 00:08:24 | time. That is before we have an opening bell or opening session later on a couple hours from it. So I don't know where we're gonna open up that there's a |
| 40 | 00:08:24 --> 00:08:35 | lot of things going on around the world between now and then some unexpected events could unfold, you know, like we saw happen two Fridays ago. Right, a |
| 41 | 00:08:35 --> 00:08:46 | Friday ago, and between Middle East and Gaza. So there's a lot of tension there. And a lot of spillover. It's your potential going into other nations other other |
| 42 | 00:08:46 --> 00:09:00 | countries in all of that concern is ramping up the flight to quality or the safe haven aspect of the dollar index, or the dollar. So the reason why I'm saying |
| 43 | 00:09:00 --> 00:09:10 | that I want to just call the market ranging between these two levels here, this week's that we just closed high in the low that week, we're going to work inside |
| 44 | 00:09:10 --> 00:09:19 | that range until we get a definitive close on a daily basis above this upper quadrant. Ultimately, this is where I believe we're drawn to that I have not |
| 45 | 00:09:19 --> 00:09:30 | caught a top in the dollar index. I'm not trying to do that. We did see it trade up into that level here. And I'll just annotate it with the horizontal line. We |
| 46 | 00:09:30 --> 00:09:43 | saw a trade up into it two weeks ago, hitting it here and then we retraced and then we came right back to consequent encouragement here. So what causes me to |
| 47 | 00:09:43 --> 00:09:51 | call for a trading range environment until there's a definitive close above the upper quadrant? Why did I say that? Because you're probably saying what makes |
| 48 | 00:09:51 --> 00:09:59 | you think that way? ICT, what makes you think that it would do that not just keep on going higher, it can go higher? I prefer that it would, but because I |
| 49 | 00:09:59 --> 00:10:06 | don't know where to go We're going to open up at, and I don't know what's likely to occur because of some kind of terrorist action, you some kind of war |
| 50 | 00:10:06 --> 00:10:16 | response, you all those things are gonna rip up the sentiment ideas and fear and greed will start coming into the marketplace, as we'll talk about with gold |
| 51 | 00:10:16 --> 00:10:26 | later. That makes it a little bit different in terms of a normal market delivery. So there's a whole lot of fear in the marketplace right now. And we're |
| 52 | 00:10:26 --> 00:10:34 | going into the last quarter of the year where markets have a lot more activity. And whoever's trying to make money this year, they're going to try to do |
| 53 | 00:10:34 --> 00:10:45 | whatever they can before the close of the year, because as we get closer to December, that's less likely for new risk to come into marketplace, it's a |
| 54 | 00:10:45 --> 00:10:56 | winding down as we get closer to the second week of December. And then we get start expecting the markets to start to soften up barring any kind of crazy 911 |
| 55 | 00:10:56 --> 00:11:07 | esque type event where it would cause market to go haywire. But why the range here because we didn't trade above this weekly high. We went just to consequent |
| 56 | 00:11:07 --> 00:11:16 | growth and just a little bit above it, but failed to get above this high here. And ultimately start with no clothes about the consequent crochet or midpoint of |
| 57 | 00:11:16 --> 00:11:26 | this longest wick. Okay. So if this would have traded and closed above this one here, I would say we're going to roll right into follow through going right from |
| 58 | 00:11:26 --> 00:11:34 | Jump Street Sunday later today. And we would start working towards here and all week long, we would just gravitate up into this area here. But because we did |
| 59 | 00:11:34 --> 00:11:43 | not get above two weeks ago is high. And because we didn't close above consequent question of last week prior to not last week, the week prior to the |
| 60 | 00:11:43 --> 00:11:55 | week, we just closed here. This tends to create a need for consolidation. If I'm wrong, it's no skin off my back. Because either way, I'm subscribing to the idea |
| 61 | 00:11:55 --> 00:12:06 | that the dollar goes higher. Okay, so there's no, there's no plan a plan B, if it goes down, I'm right. I'm saying I want it to go higher, because of the |
| 62 | 00:12:06 --> 00:12:15 | delivery of it not getting above this two weeks ago is high. And the week ago prior to the one we just closed, it didn't close above the midpoint. Can you put |
| 63 | 00:12:15 --> 00:12:31 | this back up here sir, we are following one another here. It should have in my opinion should have closed above this one oh 6.76 It should have it should have |
| 64 | 00:12:31 --> 00:12:41 | closed above that. It didn't it just returned right back to consequently current and came off the highs. But in this run higher, it didn't even get above the |
| 65 | 00:12:41 --> 00:12:45 | high of two weeks prior which is here. |
| 66 | 00:12:52 --> 00:13:07 | Okay, see that. So three weeks ago, it's Hi comes in at 106 Point 839. Cancel consequent correction or this week on that weekly candlestick. Here comes in at |
| 67 | 00:13:07 --> 00:13:17 | 106 Point 761, which is lower than the previous week. But the week we just closed wasn't able to close above consequent grocery and it wasn't able to trade |
| 68 | 00:13:17 --> 00:13:31 | above two weeks prior. So it set up a scenario where I could be wrong. It could trade down and go lower. And work inside this area here where I was talking |
| 69 | 00:13:31 --> 00:13:47 | about a little bit ago where it might be that it does this very thing here. This week, I'm not saying that that's going to happen. If it does that I'm wrong. Is |
| 70 | 00:13:47 --> 00:13:58 | that very finite, it's very specific. If it does this, if it trades down to there, then I'm wrong about my pre week opening analysis. So when I'm expecting |
| 71 | 00:13:58 --> 00:14:06 | and when I'm anticipating going into the market before we even see the opening price, later today on Sunday, I'm subscribing to the idea that we're going to |
| 72 | 00:14:06 --> 00:14:18 | remain in this range until something drives us above the upper quadrant of this wick right in here. It has to close on the daily chart. And once it does that, |
| 73 | 00:14:18 --> 00:14:26 | then I'm confident that we're likely to continue higher and then we'll work towards those higher timeframe imbalances or imbalance rather on the weekly |
| 74 | 00:14:26 --> 00:14:39 | chart of NASDAQ, which is this one right up here. Okay, so that's a long way around the barn to explain why I believe what I'm expecting and why I'm |
| 75 | 00:14:39 --> 00:14:51 | comfortable working with this idea will drop down to the daily chart. I promise they will all be that long. Keep talking ICTP talking. Alright, so here we have |
| 76 | 00:14:51 --> 00:15:07 | the daily in that range. And it's nice that we came down took out that cell side here We had a really strong reaction here on Thursday and Friday. And it just, |
| 77 | 00:15:07 --> 00:15:17 | this looks too much like it wants to consolidate a bit more. We have an imbalance right there. So we could drop that into this. I prefer to stay open to |
| 78 | 00:15:17 --> 00:15:30 | be honest with you. So what I'm highlighting here, I'd like to see this state absolutely untouched, not covered up at all, and not repriced, to just simply |
| 79 | 00:15:30 --> 00:15:34 | leave it open as a breakaway gap. That's what I would prefer to see. |
| 80 | 00:15:44 --> 00:16:00 | Why am I drawing a blank here? I don't want to extend the right. So this boss Annabelle sell some efficiency. I want to see it act as a breakaway gap. Meaning |
| 81 | 00:16:00 --> 00:16:09 | that I don't want to see the entirety of that range closed in, can it come back down and touch just below this candles low? Below the one zero 6.78 level? I'm |
| 82 | 00:16:09 --> 00:16:23 | sorry to be below that one, zero 6.29, which is the low of Friday? Can it do that? And then go higher? Yes. I prefer that it didn't. Because I don't know |
| 83 | 00:16:23 --> 00:16:32 | where we're opening on Sunday. And I'm not going to trade on Sunday. And I'm going to trade on Monday without having something that's so obvious. So right |
| 84 | 00:16:32 --> 00:16:40 | now I'm willing to just lay down and not take any action on on Monday. That's I want to see what we do with this new sentiment over the weekend. There was |
| 85 | 00:16:40 --> 00:16:50 | supposed to be some big, you know, response globally. And it was rather new, it wasn't Thankfully, it wasn't a whole lot of things going on. Doesn't mean that |
| 86 | 00:16:51 --> 00:17:01 | it won't happen at a later time, as I believe it will. But it just means that it may have lulled people into thinking that we're okay. There's no There's no |
| 87 | 00:17:01 --> 00:17:11 | reason to be concerned. And people like myself that have been around for a little bit longer than the average person trading today. We know better, we want |
| 88 | 00:17:11 --> 00:17:23 | to see, okay, let the market open up and see what they do with this information. This insight, this new sentiment, this fear grip in the marketplace, when they |
| 89 | 00:17:24 --> 00:17:35 | send it higher in the dollar index signifying that it's flight to quality, it's a safe haven move. I don't know, because we see gold rally. And this is why |
| 90 | 00:17:35 --> 00:17:44 | we'll talk about gold in terms of event driven market. But right now, Dollar Index, it could just hang around inside this range here, it could very well come |
| 91 | 00:17:44 --> 00:17:55 | down in overlap this fair value gap. And guess what that means? It means I'm not taking that as a long idea on dollar and short on euro or cable. Why? Because I |
| 92 | 00:17:55 --> 00:18:02 | want to see it do what did i What did I mentioned on the weekly chart. This is where everybody likes to take things out of context and say, but you said this |
| 93 | 00:18:02 --> 00:18:13 | and you're wrong. No, you're not listening. I'm not interested in taking a trade this week. Until we have a daily close above the upper quadrant on that weekly |
| 94 | 00:18:13 --> 00:18:25 | range that we just showed on the week on that weekly long wick candle two weeks ago. It needs to close on a daily chart above that level. When it does that, |
| 95 | 00:18:25 --> 00:18:33 | then I'm interested in trading, if it goes through it intraday, and it keeps on going higher than that previous week's high two weeks ago, then okay, that's the |
| 96 | 00:18:33 --> 00:18:43 | same thing for me. But the bare minimum is that I want to see that close above the upper quadrant, hold the reins of that weekly wick two weeks ago on the |
| 97 | 00:18:43 --> 00:18:54 | weekly chart. So I don't even care if it drops down into this it doesn't signify for me a buy. It just means Okay, once it gets there. I want to see what it |
| 98 | 00:18:54 --> 00:19:02 | does. I want more information. Why am I doing it because I'm being cautious because I'm going to be risking real money not demo. Okay, and luckily trading |
| 99 | 00:19:02 --> 00:19:11 | and Market Replay I'm going to be doing something with real money. So therefore I want to have a little bit more surety behind all the things that's going on |
| 100 | 00:19:11 --> 00:19:20 | around the world all it takes folks all it takes is for something to blow up in the right place at the right time in the right country and all hell breaks loose |
| 101 | 00:19:21 --> 00:19:30 | and then these markets will start doing things that you've never seen before. So you have to be very cautious there's there's high levels of risk right now that |
| 102 | 00:19:30 --> 00:19:40 | you have to appreciate and you just can't think well and all these things going on causes great market conditions what Yeah, after the event takes place. Yeah, |
| 103 | 00:19:40 --> 00:19:47 | but you don't know what's going to pop off next. So you have to be very careful. Very very careful. So hopefully I made that very clear. Just because if it comes |
| 104 | 00:19:47 --> 00:19:55 | back down here I don't see that as a as a buy for dollar and sell for euro dollar. If it does that I'm willing to let it go without me Not that I'm even |
| 105 | 00:19:55 --> 00:20:03 | trading Forex or or pound dollar euro dollar. But for those that are falling into fiddling for folks that follow me now, but I'm trying to I'm trying to |
| 106 | 00:20:03 --> 00:20:13 | build the audience up with a more gentlemanly traded market, or asset class, which is futures. Even Forex falls away, you will always have index futures to |
| 107 | 00:20:13 --> 00:20:23 | trade and commodity so that that's a market that will ever go away the inbound imbalance trading into it, it's just something for me to watch and see, does it |
| 108 | 00:20:23 --> 00:20:35 | respect it, if it trades below it on a daily chart and closes below this pattern analysis on efficiency, then that means I'm probably going to see a lower run |
| 109 | 00:20:35 --> 00:20:43 | here. And they would need to go through just a very, very small little movement, and then snap back higher, and then still resuming with the idea that if it has |
| 110 | 00:20:43 --> 00:20:53 | a daily close above the upper quadrant of last week's range for two weeks ago, rather, let me go back, I'd probably just confused you, it needs to get above |
| 111 | 00:20:53 --> 00:21:07 | the upper quadrant of that wick right here, which is, again, why I write my levels down. And it needs to close above this price level here, before me to |
| 112 | 00:21:07 --> 00:21:17 | engage anything. Okay, so I've placed a filter on my engagement this week. And unless it does, that, I'm not touching it. What happens if it sells off and goes |
| 113 | 00:21:17 --> 00:21:28 | a lot lower, I've missed it. And I've done nothing with it. And I'm okay with that. How's that for logic? I'm very, very careful right now, because I don't |
| 114 | 00:21:28 --> 00:21:40 | trust that something wild in unexpected going off somewhere won't occur, I believe that will. So because of that, I'm being very cautious about what I'm |
| 115 | 00:21:40 --> 00:21:48 | anticipating. And if it does this very thing here, I will feel confident that it's going to go higher on the dollar. And it might be a short period of time |
| 116 | 00:21:48 --> 00:21:58 | where gold and dollar move together. Which is not historically, what you would expect one goes higher and one goes lower. It's they're usually diametrically |
| 117 | 00:21:58 --> 00:22:06 | opposed. But because we watch Thursday and Friday, Dollar Index, let me just do gold right after dollar, because it's a little bit easier for me to segue. That |
| 118 | 00:22:06 --> 00:22:13 | way I won't forget about because the chances are I might do it, I might get into a rant a little bit after we close up with NASDAQ. And I'll forget and I'll be |
| 119 | 00:22:13 --> 00:22:23 | all upset about it. And I won't be going doing another additional review, I'll just be mad about it. And I'll be tweeting to you about what it is now, I hate |
| 120 | 00:22:23 --> 00:22:31 | my evening because I didn't do what I wanted to do. So we saw Thursday and Friday trade higher with the dollar index. So if we look at Gold break out of |
| 121 | 00:22:31 --> 00:22:42 | this market into what would normally be a diametrically opposed delivery that we're seeing here, see gold and dollar are moving in tandem. That's something |
| 122 | 00:22:42 --> 00:22:52 | that I don't like to see, I'd like to see where there is a diametrically opposed delivery, where a symmetrical market would be where dollar goes lower gold is |
| 123 | 00:22:52 --> 00:22:59 | permitted to go higher, it doesn't mean that it will go higher, it just means that it's the most likely won't go the market down, it can consolidate and |
| 124 | 00:22:59 --> 00:23:08 | slowly work its way higher. But either way, it should not be moving in the same direction. Now, what causes these types of things, it's an event driven market. |
| 125 | 00:23:09 --> 00:23:20 | Gold is highly manipulated. And it's also treated as sometimes as a safe haven market as well. Couple that with the fact that there's central banks around the |
| 126 | 00:23:20 --> 00:23:29 | world that are really trying to build up their gold supplies, because they're going to be doing central bank digital currencies, and they're going to try like |
| 127 | 00:23:29 --> 00:23:37 | the BRICS nation, they're trying to sell the idea that their currency that they're going to release later on, will be a gold backed currency. So it would |
| 128 | 00:23:37 --> 00:23:46 | demolish the dollar because it's really built, it's built and based on an idea that's an illusion. This is what we say it's worth Do you believe us? That's |
| 129 | 00:23:46 --> 00:23:54 | like the honor system? Okay. It's it's not like it used to be when it took us off the gold standard, it became an illusion. And then we created this |
| 130 | 00:23:54 --> 00:24:01 | relationship with Saudi Arabia said, Look, we're going to protect you. As long as you make everyone buy your oil with dollars. Well, there's a departure from |
| 131 | 00:24:01 --> 00:24:13 | that right now. And we're seeing this shift away where Saudi Arabia is now allowing an interest in purchasing their oil outside the dollar. So we've never |
| 132 | 00:24:13 --> 00:24:24 | had that since we came off the dollar index, I'm sorry to take you off the gold standard. When Nixon Nixon when Nixon took us off the gold standard. We |
| 133 | 00:24:24 --> 00:24:31 | basically had an illusion of currency. I mean, they're all illusions, really, if you think about it, but we really had an illusion that there was nothing behind |
| 134 | 00:24:31 --> 00:24:41 | our currency. So we started playing the mafia with Saudi Arabia when nobody was attacking it and said, Hey, look, we're gonna protect you. But in response to |
| 135 | 00:24:41 --> 00:24:54 | that you do us a solid in only sell your oil through dollars. It has to be US dollars. So we've been allowing our own currency to be propped up by the sale of |
| 136 | 00:24:54 --> 00:25:05 | a nother country's commodity. Which when you think about it, when you really can come to terms with it. It's really asinine. Like that's how was that? Like |
| 137 | 00:25:05 --> 00:25:13 | that's that shouldn't have been like that ever. And now, that country is departing from that arrangement, not entirely, but it's allowing. And I think |
| 138 | 00:25:13 --> 00:25:17 | what it's doing, it's got its toe in the water to see, what will we do in response? |
| 139 | 00:25:18 --> 00:25:31 | Well, when we're staring at Russia and China, together in a fortified union, building in opposition to the greenback, or the dollar, we're doing nothing. |
| 140 | 00:25:31 --> 00:25:38 | That's what we're doing, we're sitting back and letting them do whatever they want to do, because we're technically outnumbered. And it's been checkmate for |
| 141 | 00:25:38 --> 00:25:48 | two years now. And nobody really understands that. And all the other nations are slowly siding with as BRICS nations. And you're actually seeing the, the |
| 142 | 00:25:48 --> 00:25:58 | combination of that that last beast that the book of Daniel talks about, and I'm not going to get into that here, but that's what I see happening. And we are in |
| 143 | 00:25:59 --> 00:26:10 | dire straits economically, when that becomes full on. And they released their currency where everybody sees it, it's gold backed, there's nothing holding up |
| 144 | 00:26:10 --> 00:26:19 | our dollar then. And then we will see Venezuela 2.0, right here in the United States. And it's going to happen real fast like that. So because of all those |
| 145 | 00:26:19 --> 00:26:27 | factors that are weighing heavily on my decision making, that's why I'm not also trading in forex, because I think there's going to be the coupling, that's going |
| 146 | 00:26:27 --> 00:26:37 | to happen so sudden, that brokerage firms, financial institutions, banks, traders, they're all going to get destroyed real fast, because it's gonna be |
| 147 | 00:26:37 --> 00:26:46 | just like the Eurodollar, and the Swiss franc. When there was the decoupling that completely, it was like a new nuclear bomb going off. I mean, business as |
| 148 | 00:26:46 --> 00:26:56 | usual after that happened, but it was very scary, seeing huge runs 1000, Pip swings instantaneously, you're not ready for that. I don't care if you're |
| 149 | 00:26:56 --> 00:27:06 | trading on that account, you think you're safe, and all those things won't be around after that. That's what I'm trying to explain to you like that I'm not |
| 150 | 00:27:06 --> 00:27:16 | willing to invest in forex, because of that very thing that's looming. That's not to say that that can't create reverberations and ripples so large that they |
| 151 | 00:27:16 --> 00:27:30 | wouldn't be painful in futures, or commodities. Or, well, I said at index futures, when bond market, they'll have them too, but currencies are the, that's |
| 152 | 00:27:30 --> 00:27:40 | where the target is right now. Target is currencies, they want to have a smaller basket to choose from in terms of currencies. And the first thing they want to |
| 153 | 00:27:40 --> 00:27:49 | take away is the dollar in the influence that we've had over everyone else's nation in tried to be the world bliss, and use it like a sharp stick and say, |
| 154 | 00:27:49 --> 00:28:01 | You better do this or else. And now all these other nations that are just as powerful, if not now more powerful than us, because they've outnumbered us. On |
| 155 | 00:28:01 --> 00:28:11 | the chessboard, there's too many superpowers that are standing against us an opposition saying we don't need your dollar. And the average person isn't aware |
| 156 | 00:28:11 --> 00:28:17 | of that they don't think that way. Because they have their dollars coming to them and their paycheck, even though it's more expensive to buy everything. |
| 157 | 00:28:17 --> 00:28:25 | That's the extent of their visibility, they don't see anything past that. So there's a lot of concern that L of you should have, and you should be trying to |
| 158 | 00:28:25 --> 00:28:36 | do whatever you can to fortify your home with things that you may need, because our currency could be devalued, rather quickly. And what you think you have in |
| 159 | 00:28:36 --> 00:28:48 | the bank, versus what you actually had to spend with it is totally two different things. And that's further communicated, given the total global climate where we |
| 160 | 00:28:48 --> 00:29:02 | are, there's a lot of saber rattling war talk amongst nations, and gold rallying up like that, while the dollar is going higher, too. So I want to see what |
| 161 | 00:29:02 --> 00:29:14 | continues on Monday, Sunday night a little bit later today, when we see the market open up, does gold go higher? Does dollar go higher? Because one of the |
| 162 | 00:29:14 --> 00:29:28 | two is going to not do it. That one's going to give up. And I'm, I'm thinking that at least for the first couple of days, gold will continue higher, and |
| 163 | 00:29:28 --> 00:29:38 | dollar can consolidate. Now you see why it said all I said about the dollar index, and I just can't simply say it in a five second. Next pose I have what it |
| 164 | 00:29:38 --> 00:29:48 | is. I'm contemplating. There's a lot of factors that weigh on why I said the very things I said in just a few minutes of talking about I want to see it stay |
| 165 | 00:29:48 --> 00:29:57 | in a range where I mean, I mean anticipating it staying in range, but my focus is what we're seeing in gold, because gold is going to be the catalyst behind |
| 166 | 00:29:58 --> 00:30:08 | the follow through higher on that Dollar, or if it's continuing higher for gold, and gold wants to run for the buy side here. If it wants to run there, that |
| 167 | 00:30:08 --> 00:30:19 | means that it might cause dollar to stay in that range outlined. And then once it gets here, does it power higher? If it does, then it's going to probably send |
| 168 | 00:30:19 --> 00:30:27 | that dollar index down into that daily fair value go, which again, still would not mean a buy for me, I would need to weigh out what gold is doing, at the same |
| 169 | 00:30:27 --> 00:30:37 | time that the dollar index is dropping down into that daily fair value. Okay, so there's there's this teeter totter effect, I'm balancing out to markets that are |
| 170 | 00:30:37 --> 00:30:45 | closely correlated, but they're usually inversely correlated, meaning one goes up, the other goes down. But because of all the things that's going on, right |
| 171 | 00:30:45 --> 00:30:54 | now, they're moving in tandem. That's not a normal function or symmetrical market, you want to see a market environment where you're willing to take one |
| 172 | 00:30:54 --> 00:31:03 | risk, where they're doing the opposite of one another. That is a symmetrical market, that means everything is on on the level, meaning that if you're bullish |
| 173 | 00:31:03 --> 00:31:12 | on dollar, that should be weakness on gold, or there should be no strength and gold going higher. And all foreign currencies should move lower equity should |
| 174 | 00:31:12 --> 00:31:20 | start going lower and have a short lived rally, if it does rally there suspect rallies or fake rallies, or just going up to go into an inefficiency and quickly |
| 175 | 00:31:20 --> 00:31:28 | rejected or go up above the short term high, then reject it. That's how you use the dollar index. But just because we're bullish or bearish on the dollar index, |
| 176 | 00:31:28 --> 00:31:38 | if you're not factoring in the effects of gold, because gold is the qualifier of dollar. So you're not just simply looking at Dollar Index and thinking oh, well, |
| 177 | 00:31:39 --> 00:31:47 | we're going higher, you can't just look at Dollar Index going up and assume everything else mark to market should go lower. It doesn't it doesn't work like |
| 178 | 00:31:47 --> 00:31:57 | that. forex pairs and forex currencies, those those types of markets, yes. They many times will work mark for market, you mark to market, it'd be usually on |
| 179 | 00:31:57 --> 00:32:08 | par. Euro for certain because the dollar is heavily weighted with the euro. But other currencies like the pound, tend to do whatever it wants to do. Pound is |
| 180 | 00:32:08 --> 00:32:21 | like the NASDAQ of forex. Yeah, it might bend the knee to, you know, lower prices on whole, but it's going to book back when it wants to and be unruly. And |
| 181 | 00:32:21 --> 00:32:30 | also when it does move, it's going to move at an accelerated pace, just like tabled us cables POUND DOLLAR. So when the markets predisposed to go higher or |
| 182 | 00:32:30 --> 00:32:40 | lower relative to the dollar index going higher or lower. Euro is tending to move mark to market with what the dollar index does. But if it's bearish for |
| 183 | 00:32:40 --> 00:32:50 | Euro bullish for $1. Cable can over deliver and be exaggerated to the downside, which is when I was trading Forex, that's why I liked it more times than trade |
| 184 | 00:32:50 --> 00:33:00 | the POUND DOLLAR, then the euro, euro tend to be a little too slow for my liking, which is why I trade NASDAQ more so than I trade the ES, even though |
| 185 | 00:33:00 --> 00:33:12 | they should move in tandem. With my overall macro analysis, I tend to use the NASDAQ because if I'm on side and I'm correct, the moves can be exaggerated in |
| 186 | 00:33:12 --> 00:33:20 | my favor. Now, it's a double edged sword because if I'm wrong in my analysis, if I'm wrong in my entry, that means I'm going to sit through a little bit more |
| 187 | 00:33:20 --> 00:33:29 | drawdown or have a larger loss than that would have been taken if I would have traded simply the ES because it's gonna be a slower market. But each one of them |
| 188 | 00:33:29 --> 00:33:37 | have their inherent risks and their own characteristics. And I like to be in a market that's going to be the exaggeration, the one that does more than you |
| 189 | 00:33:37 --> 00:33:45 | would expect. That's always a good thing. So anyway, that's enough for gold. That's what I'm using it for. That's how I'm interpreting it. That's how I'm |
| 190 | 00:33:45 --> 00:33:54 | used the gold in the analysis of dollar before we got to this market here. So now there's no necessity for me to go back dollar. I've closed that chapter and |
| 191 | 00:33:54 --> 00:34:12 | I've talked about gold. So now we can go into Euro. Alright, so here is the weekly chart of Euro dollar or fiber. And let's zoom in here a little bit. I |
| 192 | 00:34:12 --> 00:34:19 | hope that made sense. I mean, I know some of you are really, really new. And it might have went over your head or a little bit confusing, but I promise you, |
| 193 | 00:34:19 --> 00:34:29 | it's it's not all that complicated. But knowing or having the experience to anticipate these types of things. It's not reasonable to expect a new trader to |
| 194 | 00:34:29 --> 00:34:39 | think that way. Because no one's actively teaching that part of it. I mean, everybody knows that dollar up, is risk off and everything else should go down. |
| 195 | 00:34:39 --> 00:34:47 | But it's not simply limited to that. There's a whole lot of other things that have to come along with that. And in my experience with a lot of books, you |
| 196 | 00:34:47 --> 00:34:57 | know, reading stuff that really is regurgitation. I didn't find a lot of value in that stuff. So there's a whole lot of other factors that aren't ever really |
| 197 | 00:34:57 --> 00:35:06 | discussed that I just shared with you. So hopefully you'll You carry you through your career with help. So he had this volume imbalance, we traded up into that |
| 198 | 00:35:06 --> 00:35:15 | artist, all old news and then moved lower. We went below here, these relatively equal lows we had sell side taken, I did not say that we were at the bottom. |
| 199 | 00:35:16 --> 00:35:31 | In the same thing I'm saying in terms of the dollar index, I think that we gradually move higher on dollar. But as to what catalysts. That is the, what's |
| 200 | 00:35:31 --> 00:35:40 | the driver, because if we start seeing a lot of terrorist attacks, if we start seeing a lot of those things happening in mainland us, the dollar index is going |
| 201 | 00:35:40 --> 00:35:52 | to go parabolic look, it's going to go straight up. And that also might accompany a rise parabolic in gold. If we see those types of things occurring, |
| 202 | 00:35:52 --> 00:36:00 | like buses being blown up, buildings being blown up new things happening in the New York Stock Exchange, or near the New York Stock Exchange, or army bases, |
| 203 | 00:36:00 --> 00:36:09 | military bases and things that nature or large gatherings of people, okay, and we start seeing the stuff that goes on in Gaza, and Israel, if that starts |
| 204 | 00:36:09 --> 00:36:21 | happening here, that's going to cause so much chaos and fear. And these markets will rev that up. And then it'll exaggerate it, and cause people to be fearful |
| 205 | 00:36:21 --> 00:36:35 | about their money. And that's what, that's what it'll be used for. So if we get all those things happening, Euro could accelerate rather quickly, right down |
| 206 | 00:36:35 --> 00:36:52 | into this area here. Ultimately, before the end of the year, I think we're going to trade into this. Yeah, that was my quarterly shift. Analysis, I was expecting |
| 207 | 00:36:52 --> 00:37:01 | this type of thing to occur, I'm still selling the idea that that's what I believe is likely to occur. I believe that the dollar index will go up into the |
| 208 | 00:37:01 --> 00:37:12 | inefficiency I mentioned. So between both of those two markets, we're seeing where I shouldn't have this color, because it doesn't stay with this, the |
| 209 | 00:37:12 --> 00:37:25 | historical use of the colors. So I think that if we have a ramp up of violence and things that are hopefully not going to happen, but if it does, that's going |
| 210 | 00:37:25 --> 00:37:36 | to cause the markets to go through a state of panic. And panic will be accelerated by the fast delivery in the markets. And they will use that going |
| 211 | 00:37:36 --> 00:37:45 | into next year. So how they, how they be in the market makers, the central banks, that's, that's who the market makers are, okay, so you want to know who |
| 212 | 00:37:45 --> 00:37:53 | they are, it's them. So when that happens, if it does happen, we'll be looking for euro to try to trade down into this area here, doesn't mean it won't go here |
| 213 | 00:37:53 --> 00:38:02 | and stop, it just means that I see it wanting to get down here. Okay, in this area. And because of all the things that's going on in the world, it could be |
| 214 | 00:38:02 --> 00:38:13 | delivered rather quickly. So everything I just mentioned with the dollar, early on, just apply that to this in terms of expectations, but just reverse it in |
| 215 | 00:38:13 --> 00:38:19 | terms of the direction because we're I'm expecting higher dollar, I'm not expecting lower dollar I'm not calling a top and Dollar Index. With all the |
| 216 | 00:38:19 --> 00:38:29 | things going on around the world, there's absolutely zero reason to anticipate or expect a high in the dollar to be formed period. Right, so the here's the |
| 217 | 00:38:29 --> 00:38:46 | daily chart on Euro. And there's no there's no inefficiency in here. that I feel is noteworthy to anticipate a a retracement down then go higher. Normally, okay, |
| 218 | 00:38:46 --> 00:39:00 | let's say it this way, we could see this this low, high, lower low. If we're in a bullish market, if we're in a bullish condition where dollar is absolutely |
| 219 | 00:39:00 --> 00:39:12 | bearish, then this run up here above this high. This would have been viewed by me as a shift in market structure. Okay, for the folks that asked this question |
| 220 | 00:39:12 --> 00:39:19 | a lot, what's the difference between a shift in market structure and just a run on stops? Well, you have to have a macro understanding of where the markets |
| 221 | 00:39:19 --> 00:39:27 | likely to go. And that's what I've spent the most time so far discussing today. What is the underlying narrative that I think is going to be implemented or what |
| 222 | 00:39:27 --> 00:39:35 | I'm going to submit myself to, and if it does this, then I'll engage this week. If it doesn't do these types of things that I'm looking for. I will be they'll |
| 223 | 00:39:35 --> 00:39:41 | have nothing to share with you. I won't be able to say here's a trade I took I won't be able to do any of that stuff. I won't be able to point to anything on |
| 224 | 00:39:41 --> 00:39:50 | Twitter beforehand, like you see me do it every single week and it happens. I'm going to be reserved and quiet. Because I want to be watching and seeing what |
| 225 | 00:39:50 --> 00:40:03 | takes place geopolitically on the waterfront. What's going on over Gaza? What's going on with Iran? What's going on with All the other Arab nations, I'm |
| 226 | 00:40:03 --> 00:40:09 | watching all that that's where my focus is. My students, I've been telling them watch the Middle East, because that's what's coming. Well, now we are we're |
| 227 | 00:40:09 --> 00:40:17 | boiling over now. That pot is boiling over, and all of us are gonna get burned by it. Just because we live on the other side of the road doesn't mean anything. |
| 228 | 00:40:18 --> 00:40:24 | Think about how many people have come through our southern border, we don't know what's going on. We don't know what's going to pop off here. But it could get |
| 229 | 00:40:24 --> 00:40:34 | real busy here real quick. And that could speed up a whole lot of fear in the marketplace. And they will use and capitalize on that fear and reprice |
| 230 | 00:40:34 --> 00:40:42 | aggressively way beyond what you expect, way, way, way beyond what you would expect in terms of your targets. So it's also occurring at a time of the year |
| 231 | 00:40:42 --> 00:40:55 | when there's larger range expansions. Anyway. There's bigger movements in these months going into the end of the year. So if we had a bullish dollar, I'm sorry, |
| 232 | 00:40:55 --> 00:41:04 | if we had a bearish dollar. And all factors that I mentioned, outlined here, were not so and it was expected to go lower for the dollar index, this would |
| 233 | 00:41:04 --> 00:41:18 | have been a bullish breakout, it would have never went this low. Now, because there is this small old gap right there. Yours for your notes. That little |
| 234 | 00:41:18 --> 00:41:20 | inefficiency right there. |
| 235 | 00:41:26 --> 00:41:36 | Right now that's a keyed off on me, I have to put this border on it. Because if I don't do it, it's gonna drive me nuts. So this inefficiency, we traded down |
| 236 | 00:41:36 --> 00:41:45 | into it there, okay, this a little bit past the midpoint or consequent encroachment of it. When it's like this, and I, I'm expecting the dollar to |
| 237 | 00:41:45 --> 00:41:51 | continue higher, it may need to consolidate a little bit. But ultimately, I think he's gonna go higher, because there's no reason for anything to be |
| 238 | 00:41:51 --> 00:41:58 | expected to smooth out like the stuff that's going over Israel and Gaza, that's not going to go away anytime soon. Like there's a lot of anger and a lot of pent |
| 239 | 00:41:58 --> 00:42:10 | up hostility, and retributions are sought after. So that stuff's just beginning. And because of that, I don't think that we're out of the woods yet in terms of |
| 240 | 00:42:10 --> 00:42:19 | the dollar going higher, because we'll be treated as a safe haven. So if we are long term bullish on dollar, but just expecting some, you know, initial early |
| 241 | 00:42:19 --> 00:42:30 | week consolidation, early week of this coming weeks, I mean, then hopefully, we start seeing the dollar index resumed going higher, because that's the catalyst. |
| 242 | 00:42:31 --> 00:42:43 | And the narrative, I think is in play, or potentially in play this week. All of this movement here above this high, wouldn't have never had me going in looking |
| 243 | 00:42:43 --> 00:42:53 | for this as a bullish breaker because we have the low, high lower low, we moved above it is a shift in market structure. No, there's no fair value gap in here, |
| 244 | 00:42:53 --> 00:43:02 | because we've had all this overlap. Candlestick running all the way over top, this range here. This candle here overlapped most of the upper portion of this |
| 245 | 00:43:02 --> 00:43:11 | wick here. Then this candle, we went down a little bit and then went higher. So there's a whole lot of back and forth movement across this candle, this candle, |
| 246 | 00:43:11 --> 00:43:19 | this candle, this candle and this candle. Now, we're dropping to me, I think this is a meaningful drop, because I think we're going to go lower, and take |
| 247 | 00:43:19 --> 00:43:31 | that low out. But since there's only this gap here, we went over top of it here, we overlapped it right? There went through it. Does that mean it's gone? No |
| 248 | 00:43:31 --> 00:43:39 | longer considered worthy? No, it means that my eye jumps right to this. And this becomes a potential inversion fair value gap. |
| 249 | 00:43:48 --> 00:44:02 | Meaning that I'm anticipating I'm expecting it to do a move lower, come back up and treat it as resistance. I'd like to see if it retraces back up into it. I |
| 250 | 00:44:02 --> 00:44:14 | would like to see it stop at the halfway point after moving below it. If it does that, then I'm really really bullish on dollar. Then I'll be really, really |
| 251 | 00:44:14 --> 00:44:26 | looking for shorts in NASDAQ. See how everything is blended together with this that the whole explanation about what I'm looking for? Why I'm thinking it why I |
| 252 | 00:44:26 --> 00:44:36 | suspect it why I'm cautious. What am I specifically waiting for that experience? That's knowing what to do with the models that's also knowing and trusting |
| 253 | 00:44:36 --> 00:44:47 | myself as a as an individual, and also respecting in the increased measure of risk right now. I'm okay with letting a price run happen on a Sunday. If we get |
| 254 | 00:44:47 --> 00:44:57 | an extreme gap opening somewhere and it starts running a lot. Who cares? I don't care. I don't need that to be profitable. I don't need that define me as a good |
| 255 | 00:44:57 --> 00:45:06 | trader. You don't either. You want to be able trading, you want to be able to trade and trade in high probability conditions where the risk is realistic and |
| 256 | 00:45:06 --> 00:45:18 | manageable, not infinite, you don't know where it's gonna go. Like your risk right now, if you carried over long or short from Friday, you have no idea where |
| 257 | 00:45:18 --> 00:45:29 | we're opening up. That's gap risk. I don't want gap risk right now. And when I trade, I don't trade with micro lots, okay, I'm trading where if I'm wrong, and |
| 258 | 00:45:29 --> 00:45:38 | we get a lot against me, that could, that could be a lot of money. And I don't want to have a lot of money taken from me, in a condition where I have no |
| 259 | 00:45:38 --> 00:45:49 | control. I have no control of where we're opening up a new week. So I teach my students to know that there's no mechanism, there's nothing I have as a tool or |
| 260 | 00:45:49 --> 00:46:02 | a repertoire. No, no outgrow No, no algo, no macro, no secret little thing, I'm never going to make public I have zero, tool for the opening price of the new |
| 261 | 00:46:02 --> 00:46:12 | week, I don't have that, that's always going to remain a mystery, I'm not gonna be able to figure that out. I tried, I don't know how to do it. So I no longer |
| 262 | 00:46:12 --> 00:46:21 | invest any time and energy into it. I've wasted a lot of money, trying to trade with real things to build what I thought was a model and they didn't hold up. So |
| 263 | 00:46:21 --> 00:46:31 | I'm convinced that that's not a worthwhile venture to try to dig into figuring out, it's not necessary. Once it opens, and then now we have information, we can |
| 264 | 00:46:31 --> 00:46:42 | worry about what it does after the opening price is made, and where we closed the previous week. So that's your opening range, new week opening up. So a long |
| 265 | 00:46:42 --> 00:46:51 | way around the barn to say that discuss this gap is here. We've already went through it here, we went down into it here. So if we go through it once more, I |
| 266 | 00:46:51 --> 00:47:02 | want to see it respect the midpoint of it and not trade up to the upper high. It can it can do that. But why would I not want to see it trading the upper portion |
| 267 | 00:47:02 --> 00:47:14 | of it? Because it would imply that it's exceedingly weak. Meaning that if we trade down on Sunday or Monday, rather, and we get back up into in touch the low |
| 268 | 00:47:14 --> 00:47:29 | of this inefficiency, which is this daily high up to the midpoint, which I'll actually give you a level. I'm so nice, no extra charge. How about that. So the |
| 269 | 00:47:29 --> 00:47:45 | the level here at 1.1 Point 04969. So let's call it 97 104 97. So as long as it gets to or in remains below one or 4.97. If it starts to drop there, I will |
| 270 | 00:47:45 --> 00:47:55 | trust that it will remain weak, because I'll treat the upper portion of it as a same way I would do with a breakaway gap, it would imply exceedingly weakness. |
| 271 | 00:47:56 --> 00:48:06 | And I would be bullish on dollar. And therefore I would look at every rally in NASDAQ as a suspect rally to fade that. And then every time it creates a new |
| 272 | 00:48:06 --> 00:48:16 | fair value gap, that would be a short I would be confident doing that. So I've already literally outlined everything that I would like for this week, what |
| 273 | 00:48:16 --> 00:48:28 | would constitute a high probability scenario, what am I waiting specifically for? It's not random. It's very specific things. And then unless it does these |
| 274 | 00:48:28 --> 00:48:36 | types of things, I would not take any action on it. And regardless of whatever the market does, I can be comfortable and not have any FOMO. I'm not fearing I'm |
| 275 | 00:48:36 --> 00:48:44 | missing out on any of these moves that takes place. Because what I framed out is what I'm comfortable with and incurring risk around that is acceptable thing for |
| 276 | 00:48:44 --> 00:48:54 | me. These things may not be what you're subscribing to, it may not even be your model, you may have something entirely different that you're trading with. And |
| 277 | 00:48:54 --> 00:49:02 | you think that what I just outlined here, makes no sense to you and you wouldn't use it. That's your business. You're welcome to have that. But for me, for me to |
| 278 | 00:49:02 --> 00:49:09 | have something where I'm going to show you an example, this is what I did. This is how I use the information I've talked about on Sunday before the market |
| 279 | 00:49:09 --> 00:49:19 | opened up because you see right here, we're doing this live it's New York local time. It's 1:34pm. The market has not opened up yet. I'm cosigning all this |
| 280 | 00:49:19 --> 00:49:30 | before it happens. I don't know if I'm going to be correct. But notice this, I am disarming everyone. There's nothing to hold on to to be right or wrong right |
| 281 | 00:49:30 --> 00:49:40 | now because I have laid down the foundations about what it is I want to do to trade anything this week. If it doesn't do it all this week, guess what happens? |
| 282 | 00:49:40 --> 00:49:47 | I've taken no trades. Are you willing to go through an entire week without the injury? Chances are you're probably not because you're all hopped up on |
| 283 | 00:49:47 --> 00:49:55 | goofballs, like you're you're gambling. Like you're trying to do something because you have time to do it. I want to trade because I want to make money. I |
| 284 | 00:49:55 --> 00:50:05 | want to sleep at night knowing that what I'm about to do and take a trade on it It's reasonable, that risk is reasonable. If I'm risking $6,000 on a position |
| 285 | 00:50:05 --> 00:50:16 | that might seems that might seem crazy to you. But that $6,000, if I do a double portion of that same trade, it might be a $12,000 risk, my stop loss could be |
| 286 | 00:50:16 --> 00:50:27 | $12,000 in the size of my position. But I'm comfortable taking on that risk. You can't even trade that in months of profit. But that's a trade that I'm willing |
| 287 | 00:50:27 --> 00:50:37 | to accept. If given these types of parameters, if they're met this way, I can take a trade like that and feel confident that I can get 50,000 75,000 out of |
| 288 | 00:50:37 --> 00:50:47 | the market off of that move. So everything's relative, everything is a matter of what, what fits you. But everything I just said can be scaled down to you this |
| 289 | 00:50:47 --> 00:50:59 | week, you could use everything on this outline in the scope of a micro lot. The smallest of you know the the profit and loss potential that's given to you by |
| 290 | 00:50:59 --> 00:51:08 | the risk and leverage that you use, whether it be Forex or futures, you have to scale it for what you're what you're comfortable with. For me, because I know |
| 291 | 00:51:08 --> 00:51:19 | there's a likelihood of a lot of excitement, a lot of big moves can happen. I'm not just going to sit down and wait for something just feels right. I need to |
| 292 | 00:51:19 --> 00:51:26 | know that I'm using the higher timeframes, I know that I'm referring to and conferring with other markets that are indicating something else excited. And, |
| 293 | 00:51:27 --> 00:51:38 | you know, there's a lot of fever around fear right now, gold and our move together. So I want to see which one continues from Sunday's opening into |
| 294 | 00:51:38 --> 00:51:47 | Monday's trading and how we close on Monday, I'll have more insights about that. And then I guess, Monday, I'll do a review again, on YouTube. And then we'll |
| 295 | 00:51:47 --> 00:51:55 | revisit all these things I've mentioned here and how it relates to or if it's been negated by something else that takes place because again, anything can pay, |
| 296 | 00:51:55 --> 00:52:04 | anything could pop off and change everything in this outline. But you have to have something in mind what you permit yourself to assume as risk. Because if |
| 297 | 00:52:04 --> 00:52:11 | you don't do that, you're just going to chase price, you're going to jump around from one model to the next or one approach to the next, Chase somebody else's |
| 298 | 00:52:11 --> 00:52:18 | opinion, but it'd be my opinion number, or fade something else, you're not going to know what you're doing, you're just going to be doing something for the sake |
| 299 | 00:52:18 --> 00:52:30 | of doing it, versus investing with a logic behind what it is you're doing, but also comfortably accepting the risk. So if I'm wrong, I am accepting the fact |
| 300 | 00:52:30 --> 00:52:38 | that I'm wrong. If I if I take the trade based on the things I'm sharing, I'm okay being wrong. In that case, it doesn't change my opinion about what I'm |
| 301 | 00:52:38 --> 00:52:48 | using to trade with doesn't hurt my feelings, I don't get mad and go out there and go raging. I'm just simply focusing on what I believe would be the best of |
| 302 | 00:52:48 --> 00:52:57 | the best for me going forward this week. And I'll just outline that for you. Okay. So if we miss this drop down to an hourly chart, I'll just do a full room. |
| 303 | 00:53:01 --> 00:53:15 | Right. So I like the idea of the sell side here. You see how nice that is. It's real obvious in there like that. So at some point, I want to see us work below |
| 304 | 00:53:15 --> 00:53:27 | that this week. Depending on where we open up on Sunday, there's a little bit of a range, there's not a lot. Actually, it's not much at all. That's Forex, I'm |
| 305 | 00:53:27 --> 00:53:37 | thinking I'm looking at a futures. But that might be our initial draw. And then down here, I like that as well. So those are two levels |
| 306 | 00:53:37 --> 00:53:50 | I'd be looking for. I like how we went up, traded into this breaker. Here we have high low, higher high the down close candle trade up into that with a city. |
| 307 | 00:53:50 --> 00:54:02 | This candle here is a city. Then we sold off smaller one inefficiency we traded up into that here. And I'd like to see it remain heavy with $1 that doesn't want |
| 308 | 00:54:02 --> 00:54:10 | to go lower. And that would allow for a year to trade down in the sell side liquidity. If we do rally. There's a little bit of clean this in here. You see |
| 309 | 00:54:10 --> 00:54:25 | how these are just a little too smooth for my liking. If dollar runs lower, say it sharply runs lower into that daily inefficiency outline for dollar. We could |
| 310 | 00:54:25 --> 00:54:36 | see the Euro dollar come back up and wipe out this area here because this would be trailed by stops on shorts. And getting about these by stops here goes right |
| 311 | 00:54:36 --> 00:54:43 | into this inefficiency right there. So for the dollar, I'm not going to going lower than dollar I'm not going to go any lower than the hourly chart I |
| 312 | 00:54:43 --> 00:54:55 | apologize. This area here are two premium arrays that are if we see that drop in dollar we'll see Euro trade up into these levels here. So if you're going to be |
| 313 | 00:54:55 --> 00:55:05 | a scalper and you're not using what I'm outlining here and waiting for just that If we get a drop in dollar, and you can see it trading towards that daily |
| 314 | 00:55:05 --> 00:55:15 | inefficiency. This is where the draw is on euro for the retracement idea. Even if it does this here, it doesn't upset the idea of what I've outlined earlier. |
| 315 | 00:55:16 --> 00:55:23 | Because ultimately I think the dollar goes higher. So we could see it go up here, upset that and then slowly drift down and then later in the week, |
| 316 | 00:55:23 --> 00:55:38 | aggressively run for sale sign here, here. And then you know what we get after this, we'll get it. So let's close this one go to cable real quick. If you're |
| 317 | 00:55:38 --> 00:55:52 | finding this helpful, insightful. appreciate if you give a thumbs up, that's my little indication that you're receiving from me and not not just wasting time |
| 318 | 00:55:52 --> 00:56:00 | talking about something, if you're getting some value from it. That's the report card, you get me. That's our currency here. It doesn't cost you anything to do |
| 319 | 00:56:00 --> 00:56:14 | it. There's no power required. So we have an inefficiency here on the weekly chart. We traded up into that last week. And we'll get more detail. |
| 320 | 00:56:20 --> 00:56:32 | Okay, so we have an old low in here, you should have entered the inefficiency in old low, traded up into any movement right back down into this area here. So if |
| 321 | 00:56:32 --> 00:56:42 | we look at the consequent encroach on that wick, or I guess it would be called the tail, we didn't quite get down into it to see that. So I would want to see s |
| 322 | 00:56:42 --> 00:56:56 | go into this and have a close, same thing, just reverse it now. I want to see it close on a daily basis, because we're looking at a weekly chart look up in upper |
| 323 | 00:56:56 --> 00:57:07 | left hand corner. So the weekly timeframe, I want to see a daily close below that 1.20. We'll call it 70. Level. If it closes below that, then I would feel |
| 324 | 00:57:07 --> 00:57:22 | reasonably confident that we're going to take the low out here. And then look at these lows here. My I jumped right to this in this that in that we have this |
| 325 | 00:57:23 --> 00:57:33 | already traded to almost right there consequent Grossman. So it's this wick in this way. So I look at those two is relatively equal. And because we have an |
| 326 | 00:57:35 --> 00:57:48 | undelivered, consequent encouragement on this week, retail, that is where I believe the draw would be on the downside. So we'll say this is it there with |
| 327 | 00:57:48 --> 00:57:58 | the expectation that it would eventually pierce this wicks, or consequent parchment of this tail, and then get into this inefficiency down here. So longer |
| 328 | 00:57:58 --> 00:58:11 | term. Cable, this is where I think we could potentially draw down to because it can accelerate and over deliver versus in by comparison to what your own might |
| 329 | 00:58:11 --> 00:58:24 | do. So if the dollar does, in fact go higher. And Euro goes lower. Cable could accelerate and just really be animated to the downside and trade below the sell |
| 330 | 00:58:24 --> 00:58:33 | side here. And if it goes below here, how far can it go? It can reach down into this inefficiency of this fear right now. But we're not talking about a day |
| 331 | 00:58:33 --> 00:58:43 | trade. Okay, because this is the weekly timeframe. So it doesn't imply that just because you see something as a short, intraday, that that entry entry is a sound |
| 332 | 00:58:43 --> 00:58:55 | entry to ride all the way down there. No, I'm not implying that at all. I'm saying that for a long term macro view of what may be in fact, what we see, over |
| 333 | 00:58:55 --> 00:59:07 | weeks and months. This is where the POUND DOLLAR could be reaching to. But initially, we have to work out this area here where it has to close below the |
| 334 | 00:59:07 --> 00:59:18 | lower quadrant of this wick or tail. If it does that, what that tells me is this becomes likely to be in play in the sell side resting below here. That would be |
| 335 | 00:59:18 --> 00:59:28 | my draw longer term and I would submit to the idea that while it's still likely to reach there, and then Euro maybe going lower in dollars going higher. I |
| 336 | 00:59:28 --> 00:59:41 | believe that everything stays intact with that symmetry, dollar higher Euro lower pound lower, but specifically aiming for pound moving significantly lower. |
| 337 | 00:59:41 --> 00:59:50 | Because it's tending to always as its as its own characteristic. It tends to exaggerate the moves that would see. Euro lower POUND DOLLAR usually goes a |
| 338 | 00:59:50 --> 01:00:01 | little bit more just the same way you see the acceleration and exaggerated moves in NASDAQ versus the ES. It's just a natural characteristic that it has Alright, |
| 339 | 01:00:01 --> 01:00:11 | so with that, let's drop down into the daily, we're almost halfway there, folks are almost there. So we had to buy side taken here. And as I mentioned, with the |
| 340 | 01:00:11 --> 01:00:22 | Eurodollar, much in the same vein, this would have normally been a, a breaker where we had a low, high, lower low. And if it was bearish for dollar, then this |
| 341 | 01:00:22 --> 01:00:31 | would have set up a bullish breaker, no necessity to trade down here at all. Because there really isn't a ideal fair value gap. There is one here, right in |
| 342 | 01:00:31 --> 01:00:38 | here. But that wouldn't, that would have never been one for me to see as a shift in market structure and trade all the way back down into that level there. |
| 343 | 01:00:38 --> 01:00:49 | That's a little too deep of a retracement, I'm not a harmonic trader, I'm not deep, you know, 80% or 80%, whatever it is, bat pattern or whatever it is. I'm |
| 344 | 01:00:49 --> 01:01:04 | not subscribed to Zoo patterns. So this would be treated by me if it were to trade below it. The same way I outlined it for Euro, I would treat it as a |
| 345 | 01:01:04 --> 01:01:12 | inversion fair Vega. And I just did the wrong color either right the first time. I like to use this color for inversions that way going forward. If |
| 346 | 01:01:12 --> 01:01:19 | you ever see it on my chart, doesn't mean I'm always doing it correctly. Because sometimes like I did it here does it it wrong color it especially if I'm doing a |
| 347 | 01:01:19 --> 01:01:28 | trade live. And I'm trying to maintain my focus on what you're probably going to ask me or would would ask me while I was doing the trade. And what I'm thinking |
| 348 | 01:01:28 --> 01:01:36 | is it's happening, my eyes go into these levels while I'm managing a trade. These are real trades, you know, there's real risks here. These these things |
| 349 | 01:01:36 --> 01:01:46 | have to be thought about at the time. And if I'm trading with a 15 second chart, that's a whole lot of identifying, calculating, weighing out whether this should |
| 350 | 01:01:46 --> 01:01:52 | happen. Then thinking about what you're asking if you were standing next to me what your government probably asked me after I shared a video of the execution, |
| 351 | 01:01:53 --> 01:02:01 | plus managing the entire trade and also coming up with a way of responding and highlighting and teaching. While the trades going on. I'm sorry, but that's just |
| 352 | 01:02:01 --> 01:02:10 | not easy to do. So sometimes I'll do the color wrong. But inversion fair value gets, I'd like to keep this color scheme for any fair value, get that a shade in |
| 353 | 01:02:10 --> 01:02:16 | a shade of like either green or blue, I'm treating it as something that would be considered discount for the purposes of maybe going higher, I'm treating as it |
| 354 | 01:02:16 --> 01:02:27 | should act as support anything in a pink or red hue. That's usually something I'm expected to treat it as a resistance or some selling. Once it gets there, it |
| 355 | 01:02:27 --> 01:02:37 | should be met with some kind of a turn, or maybe consolidated but failed to go higher in when it's orange like this, okay, that to me, is signifying to you. |
| 356 | 01:02:37 --> 01:02:45 | And this is what I originally thought out when I first started teaching the inversion pay gaps. This would be otherwise expected to treat it like this, like |
| 357 | 01:02:45 --> 01:02:55 | it did here went down to it touch that in rally. That's reasonable. But because we're bearish on the POUND DOLLAR, and we're bullish on the dollar, we would |
| 358 | 01:02:55 --> 01:03:05 | expect to see this trade through it and fail. Okay, so understanding the narratives, then you can anticipate seeing PD arrays that would another wise in |
| 359 | 01:03:05 --> 01:03:14 | instances, that would be like, as I mentioned before, if the dollar was bearish trading back down to this level here would be considered a bullish scenario for |
| 360 | 01:03:14 --> 01:03:21 | POUND DOLLAR. But because I'm outlining enough sort of the analysis off with, I believe that ultimately we're going to go higher on the dollar index, trading |
| 361 | 01:03:21 --> 01:03:30 | back down here anyway, when we've already used it. Not that it's a fresh zone, because it's not that it's not supplying demand zone, I want to see it fail, I |
| 362 | 01:03:30 --> 01:03:40 | would expect it to trade through it. Now if it does that, I would expect it to go back up touch the low respect the midpoint of it, not traded the entire range |
| 363 | 01:03:40 --> 01:03:48 | and touch the top of it. But if it does that and it starts to move lower, then I'm confident that we're going to below below this low here. And then that means |
| 364 | 01:03:48 --> 01:03:57 | that I would expect $1 considered bullish To be continued. And then any rallies and NASDAQ I would treat them as a suspect rally and look to fade that in any |
| 365 | 01:03:57 --> 01:04:04 | fair value get to go short. I would feel confident taking the short there. Now do you see what I just did there? That's intermarket relationships. Okay. So, |
| 366 | 01:04:04 --> 01:04:13 | intermarket relationships are in a market analysis, using other markets to support an idea not to simply looking at one payer or one market, for the simple |
| 367 | 01:04:13 --> 01:04:21 | sake of I see a pattern I have time to trade. So then you just take a trade, that's too myopic, you have to blend a lot of things to get to what we |
| 368 | 01:04:21 --> 01:04:28 | considered, by my definition, high probability. Now, it doesn't mean that what I just outlined here is going to pan out it just means that that's what I'm |
| 369 | 01:04:28 --> 01:04:39 | waiting for. That would illustrate that this would be a high probability short for pound and it means it would confirm continued upside likely to see dollar |
| 370 | 01:04:39 --> 01:04:51 | going higher. Okay, so I've taken you through the whole spectrum of using other markets to support or what would negate the idea of me eventually taking trade |
| 371 | 01:04:51 --> 01:05:00 | in the only market I'm interested in right now, which is NASDAQ. But I gave you the criteria in which that you can study this going forward this week. Let's see |
| 372 | 01:05:00 --> 01:05:08 | if it pans out, see if it offers anything to you. And then what patterns that you are looking for as your model, do they manifest later on in the week using |
| 373 | 01:05:08 --> 01:05:18 | this information? Okay, so it's an interactive study. It's something that it's, it's explained in detail here. There's finite parameters is not a, if it goes up |
| 374 | 01:05:18 --> 01:05:27 | or down, right, either way, it's I'm looking for higher dollar. But I'm also teaching how I will let an expect because many of you, if you look around, have |
| 375 | 01:05:27 --> 01:05:35 | asked how do you know when a fair value gaps not going to work? I'm outlining it here. But when it fails, it doesn't mean it's discarded. This means that I'm |
| 376 | 01:05:35 --> 01:05:45 | going to treat it as inversion pay, right got a fair value get that fails in its function of bullishness or bearishness, if it fails, it will become an inversion |
| 377 | 01:05:45 --> 01:05:53 | of fair value get after it comes back to it. So there's no reason for you to be upset about taking a trade and getting stopped out. If you try to use it as an |
| 378 | 01:05:53 --> 01:06:02 | entry to go along and it stops you out, you're gonna get mad and think everything doesn't work because of that, when it should be, wow, okay, I got |
| 379 | 01:06:02 --> 01:06:09 | that wrong, all I got to do is sit back and wait, when it comes back up and hits it, I'll treat it as a shorting opportunity. And you'll get it back in probably |
| 380 | 01:06:09 --> 01:06:18 | more. And you won't wrestle with this idea that I got to be right. Because when we're wrong, it gives us insight, we just had to pay a premium for that insight. |
| 381 | 01:06:18 --> 01:06:29 | That's all, it's all it is. And that's how you wrestle through fear of missing out. Fear of losing you losing sometimes gonna cost money for you to get better |
| 382 | 01:06:29 --> 01:06:37 | perspective and a better insight, you're gonna get a higher education because you paid for it. It's just like college, you, you're willing to pay for all |
| 383 | 01:06:37 --> 01:06:48 | those extra credits beyond grade school, rudimentary classes in your elementary school, and then you go into debt, to pay for that higher knowledge at higher |
| 384 | 01:06:48 --> 01:06:56 | education. When you have when you're a trader, and you take a loss, this is the same thing, that transaction is you just paying for another class, and you paid |
| 385 | 01:06:56 --> 01:07:05 | for those credits. Now, at the end of that credit, for that, that semester course, you now have the insights that should have been gleaned from that |
| 386 | 01:07:05 --> 01:07:15 | exposure to that study of whatever it is, whether it be a class or mathematics or science or whatever, it's some prerequisite for your degree or major, you're |
| 387 | 01:07:15 --> 01:07:24 | paying for that insight, a loss in trading should be treated the same way. It should never be permitted to be catastrophic. Where you're risking the the |
| 388 | 01:07:24 --> 01:07:36 | entire access to your funded account, or your it completely decimates your fund that account combine or it blows your account, or you lose $40,000, because you |
| 389 | 01:07:36 --> 01:07:44 | didn't use a stop loss or you live streaming, you delete the stream, and you pretend it never happened. Those things can be avoided. If you do all these |
| 390 | 01:07:44 --> 01:07:52 | types of things. And you don't have these fear of, you know, being judged by other people or not judging yourself because you're doing something that makes |
| 391 | 01:07:52 --> 01:08:01 | sense. You're doing things that are sound, there's logic behind it, that sound, you're not recklessly gambling, you're not afraid if you take a loss, you're not |
| 392 | 01:08:01 --> 01:08:08 | afraid your model is going to fail. You're not afraid that the only thing that you use to trade with isn't the right thing for you because if a fair a gap is |
| 393 | 01:08:08 --> 01:08:18 | European era, if that's what you're using the trade buying and selling. There, you're going to meet a time where you expect these things to perform a specific |
| 394 | 01:08:18 --> 01:08:30 | manner or function, bullishness or bearishness, but when they fail, that gives you insight. That's what a inversion fair value gap is. That's what it is. It's |
| 395 | 01:08:30 --> 01:08:38 | inversion. You expected it to behave a specific way but it goes through it well here I'm anticipating price going through this very Faraday gap here for the |
| 396 | 01:08:38 --> 01:08:47 | Express purposes that it will hopefully provide a shorting opportunity that would accelerate further downside and this becomes an inversion fairway gap if |
| 397 | 01:08:47 --> 01:08:57 | we trade down but not below this low before returning back to it because that sell side still there. And it will return back to this Faraday got because it |
| 398 | 01:08:57 --> 01:09:05 | would treat this as an inversion pair Vega there's no there's there's only buyside here when this candle passing through. We didn't get to it here we went |
| 399 | 01:09:05 --> 01:09:14 | just shallow into here. But from this candles low to that candles high. There's only by side it was delivered only here on by side. So what is it missing sell |
| 400 | 01:09:14 --> 01:09:28 | side. So if it drops down, it offers that sell side to this candles high so it re prices to that range low which is this candle high. So that fair value gap |
| 401 | 01:09:28 --> 01:09:37 | has been repriced, to offer the buy side it's been given here and then sell side. So if it moves away from it comes back up. What is it going to act as a |
| 402 | 01:09:37 --> 01:09:46 | bounce price range, which is a reason why I'm telling you that I would like to see it only trade to halfway. It can trade up to the highest point. But if it |
| 403 | 01:09:46 --> 01:09:55 | tells me no I'm not interested going on to the top of it after moving below it. If it hits the low and only stops at midpoint or just below it and then starts |
| 404 | 01:09:55 --> 01:10:04 | to move lower. That's exactly what I want because it's It's signifying that the bounce price range is not permitting price to come all the way back up to the |
| 405 | 01:10:04 --> 01:10:13 | high of it. It need not do that. Why? Because we've already traded down to it a little bit in here. So we've already had sellside offered to that degree when |
| 406 | 01:10:13 --> 01:10:23 | that candles low. If, if this is the part, you don't want them here, you want me to get to the nitty gritty and make it easy here to buy, sell and expect it. But |
| 407 | 01:10:23 --> 01:10:30 | if you want to learn how to make money, and consistently know what you're looking for, why am I using this candle? Why am I not doing this, in my mind |
| 408 | 01:10:30 --> 01:10:37 | expecting this rings to stay unfilled? And why should I expect this to be filled? Well, how I'm teaching it to you. But it can't be done in a five minute |
| 409 | 01:10:37 --> 01:10:46 | video. If this candle didn't trade down into the upper portion of this fair value got, if it didn't do that right there, then the one passed through it, |
| 410 | 01:10:46 --> 01:10:53 | where I expect the fair value got to fail here and not offer support, then I would treat the fair inversion fair value gap as it can go over to the high. |
| 411 | 01:10:54 --> 01:11:06 | Why? Because it wouldn't have had this drop down in the upper portion of this range. See that. But because it did that, it's already offered a measure of sell |
| 412 | 01:11:06 --> 01:11:09 | side. So between that candles low, which I'll highlight here, |
| 413 | 01:11:11 --> 01:11:19 | what I'm saying is essentially is I don't want to see it trade above that blue line, if it trades down. Worst case scenario, it can create a mohawk, which is a |
| 414 | 01:11:19 --> 01:11:30 | little tiny little deviation above or below a level that would be the level I'm looking for it to be respected. But because markets are factoring a spread, and |
| 415 | 01:11:30 --> 01:11:38 | we all know Forex as a spread, I don't care what they tell you what they offer you all your if spreads that are distance or whatever, it the broker wants to |
| 416 | 01:11:38 --> 01:11:46 | expand it on you, they're going to expand it on you and it is what it is, unless you're using a limit order. If you're using a market order, chances are that |
| 417 | 01:11:46 --> 01:11:53 | spread isn't gonna be what you actually get. And how often are you really checking to see what you paid and spread, you're not, you're just hoping to get |
| 418 | 01:11:53 --> 01:12:01 | in there because your fear of missing out and so high. That difference between this candles low and the high of the fair baguette, which is this lump here. So |
| 419 | 01:12:01 --> 01:12:10 | I'm going to highlight both levels. I don't want to see price. If it trades down below it, I don't want to see it trade back up in between these two levels once |
| 420 | 01:12:10 --> 01:12:19 | we get below this shaded area. Because the effects of this candle trading down to the upper portion of this fair value gap, it's already offered on the basis |
| 421 | 01:12:19 --> 01:12:31 | of this move here. That candle right there that day, has already delivered most of the upper portion of what would be this fair value guy. So because it has |
| 422 | 01:12:31 --> 01:12:39 | done that, I don't want to see if we trade below it and it comes back up and touches the low or halfway point I wanted to be sensitive there and not trade |
| 423 | 01:12:39 --> 01:12:48 | any higher. But it can create a small little Mohawk just above that line there but not touch the upper portion. If it does that, that tells me it's exceedingly |
| 424 | 01:12:48 --> 01:12:59 | weak. And then therefore I would expect dollar to accelerate higher. And in any shorts that I see in NASDAQ should be high probability. And then this would sell |
| 425 | 01:12:59 --> 01:13:08 | off pretty aggressive reaching down for the sell side below over in here. But if this candle hadn't done this very thing here, that means that the only thing |
| 426 | 01:13:08 --> 01:13:19 | that this fairway gap has seen, again, this portion right here, imagine that's not there, say this candle had a low up up up here. Okay, that means that this |
| 427 | 01:13:19 --> 01:13:34 | range only had buyside offered to this to this point here. So what's it missing? It's inefficient in sulci. Because it's by sight and balance that needs its |
| 428 | 01:13:34 --> 01:13:42 | direction was a closing candle higher differences swing the candle before candle after it is that there's a little gap in between where the market has to |
| 429 | 01:13:42 --> 01:13:54 | eventually reprice lower, we're not down there yet. So when you look at a fair value gap, you have to see how was it treated? How was it utilized, it wasn't |
| 430 | 01:13:54 --> 01:14:09 | even touched here. I said that. It wasn't, it wasn't willing to trade down the consequent Kushman. Here, it didn't come to the very low that candle here. It |
| 431 | 01:14:09 --> 01:14:17 | didn't respect that it traded just inside the upper portion or upper half of that gap that's read about this candle time that candles low. So because it's |
| 432 | 01:14:17 --> 01:14:25 | done that I don't want to see it once it trades back down, like down below it. I don't want to see come back and touch the top. But if this wasn't the case here, |
| 433 | 01:14:25 --> 01:14:35 | then I would expect and I would try to take a short, higher up above the consequent cursor on the fair value gap. And if I can get a mohawk right here on |
| 434 | 01:14:35 --> 01:14:45 | the high on it. It just puts itself above it. Many times you've seen me I'll add a partial and pyramid in that very thing right there. And you've seen people ask |
| 435 | 01:14:45 --> 01:14:55 | like Why were you adding to it it was outside the fair Vega because a Mohawk is expected. It's permissible we allow for it. I'm not scared of it. I know it's |
| 436 | 01:14:55 --> 01:15:03 | likely to occur. If I can get fortunate enough. Notice I didn't say lucky enough. I was fortunate enough to get the Phil on that mohawk at this point is |
| 437 | 01:15:03 --> 01:15:13 | just the boat that that superior entry. That's like that is that's the that's part of the game I play when I'm trying to get feels like I want to try to do |
| 438 | 01:15:13 --> 01:15:23 | that sometimes I'm not successful all the time because the markets dry right now. And hopefully I've made a major dent in your understanding about inversion |
| 439 | 01:15:23 --> 01:15:34 | fair value gaps here. I tuck it in to these, these long winded videos, because these are the details. These are the details that used to make sure I didn't |
| 440 | 01:15:34 --> 01:15:51 | break my phone here. told myself and I made it on the arm chair next to me, and I'm probably going to drop it. And that's good. Just last until November 12. So |
| 441 | 01:15:51 --> 01:16:02 | I'm better off. So now you have insights. What when do I expect the fair pay gap to fill? Why would I expect it to fail? Why would I like to see things remain |
| 442 | 01:16:02 --> 01:16:12 | open? I covered all that right here. Okay. So, in my book, when I talk about embarrassing fair pay gaps, I'm going to cite this very video, where I'm walking |
| 443 | 01:16:12 --> 01:16:21 | you through the explanation with an example. Because everything I've just said in text, you might read and say, I don't understand what he's saying. But now |
| 444 | 01:16:21 --> 01:16:29 | you've seen me outline it, you see me refer to it here, in every example where I've ever shown the trade where I've used it and you watch me call an inversion |
| 445 | 01:16:29 --> 01:16:39 | fair value get before the market itself respected as such. Now you understand the dynamic of what I trusted at the time. Because it's not make believe it's |
| 446 | 01:16:39 --> 01:16:48 | not hindsight, it's it's logic that's being referred to on an ongoing basis, that will tend to repeat more times than it will fail. And then in and of |
| 447 | 01:16:48 --> 01:16:56 | itself, that is an edge. That's a model that's something you can, you can put statistics and probabilities behind. And if you can determine when the markets |
| 448 | 01:16:56 --> 01:17:07 | predisposed to go higher or lower. That by definition gives you high probability. If you can't do your trades, with that mindset, behind each and |
| 449 | 01:17:07 --> 01:17:15 | every one of them, you're gambling, you have no idea what you're doing. You're just hoping and praying. And when it's right, you'll call it skill when it's |
| 450 | 01:17:15 --> 01:17:22 | wrong. You'll blame me you'll blame the the methodology, you'll blame the broker, you'll blame the market, you'll blame everything else but yourself. So |
| 451 | 01:17:22 --> 01:17:31 | this discussion, is this reverting back to you as the responsible party, when you do it wrong, you did it wrong, everything else is exactly what it is. |
| 452 | 01:17:33 --> 01:17:43 | Separate from you. These gaps don't make you buy them, they don't make you short term, you decide that you make that decision. So I'll move on, because I could |
| 453 | 01:17:43 --> 01:18:01 | go on a lecture about that. So let's go into the 60 minute chart. And same thing here. We had a city breaker we traded up into the both of those. That's a nice, |
| 454 | 01:18:01 --> 01:18:08 | that is a very, very strong model. When you're looking for sell side, everything reversed. You can use it for when you're looking for buy side, it broke lower, |
| 455 | 01:18:08 --> 01:18:21 | which made up into the inefficiency here. And this is one of those things that I got burned many times on Sundays where I had this very scenario here, where it |
| 456 | 01:18:21 --> 01:18:30 | looks like okay, we traded up into that. And if we opened up inside this fear Vega here, I would go short right there on Sunday and expect Sunday going into |
| 457 | 01:18:30 --> 01:18:43 | Monday London, it would just trade lower. And it wouldn't do that. Sometimes it would go higher. Take the buy side that I would be treating as my stop and |
| 458 | 01:18:43 --> 01:18:53 | totally new prevent me from being profitable for that Sunday trading. It was this very thing here that caused me to stop trading on Sundays where I used to |
| 459 | 01:18:53 --> 01:19:03 | take trades on Sunday, when we open up I would trade in the first three hours or so of Sunday, and then pack it up going in around 10 o'clock. You do whatever |
| 460 | 01:19:03 --> 01:19:11 | you normally do if I'm going to nap or whatnot before London session, or if I went to sleep. That's what I would do, and then come back in London and see if |
| 461 | 01:19:11 --> 01:19:22 | everything was in the same vein of what I had hoped for. If it gave me a trade, I would trade Milan session. But because of all the things that's going on to |
| 462 | 01:19:22 --> 01:19:33 | talk about in the early portion of the video, or live stream here, you're listening to the the wartime events, the terrorist events, the uncertainty in |
| 463 | 01:19:33 --> 01:19:44 | the likelihood of it happening in all of our backyards, all that stuff could promote enough fear and they might want to, you know to start rubbing that fear |
| 464 | 01:19:44 --> 01:19:56 | up by having a gap opening lower. Then come up reprice to close the gap between where we closed on Friday and where we open up here today later today and |
| 465 | 01:19:56 --> 01:20:14 | Sunday. close that gap and then go are in, I'd like to see a trade below that gap and not offer support. I want to see it fail. What happens if it trades down |
| 466 | 01:20:14 --> 01:20:23 | to this? It treats it as support and rallies back up. I won't be long. I'm not trading Forex. But you shouldn't be upset about that. Because what you're going |
| 467 | 01:20:23 --> 01:20:31 | to be treating as what inversion for Vega, there's always going to be moves that take place that you didn't see coming. But here's the wonderful thing. You |
| 468 | 01:20:31 --> 01:20:38 | didn't lose money. You're you're gonna beat yourself up about how much you could have made if you just wouldn't took that trade, but you didn't see a comment. So |
| 469 | 01:20:38 --> 01:20:48 | how you going to how are you going to punish yourself like that. You're wasting mental capital doing it. You're literally causing mental drawdown or money that |
| 470 | 01:20:48 --> 01:21:01 | you never really risked. And you can't make money thinking and worrying about it. So by having these pre market opening expectations, and running scenarios |
| 471 | 01:21:01 --> 01:21:11 | that would allow you to feel comfortable taking trade, and what you would be comfortable letting go without you being a participant in it helps free up that. |
| 472 | 01:21:13 --> 01:21:21 | Well, permission to give yourself so that way, you don't feel impulsive to chase price, because you can see a trade down. And if you're vague and it starts to |
| 473 | 01:21:21 --> 01:21:30 | come up a little bit and you think oh man, I said he's probably got it wrong. What if it does run? You know, 100 pips higher? Yeah, it's 100 pips that I could |
| 474 | 01:21:30 --> 01:21:37 | make. And I can come back and say, I see a failure what you did, and you feel great, wonderful. If it happened, it will be great. But are you gonna feel |
| 475 | 01:21:37 --> 01:21:45 | comfortable in the trade? Probably not. You're gonna be hoping and praying that it works out. And you won't be looking at what the markets telling you. While |
| 476 | 01:21:45 --> 01:21:54 | you're in it, that might tell you it's going to fail, and then do what I'm outlining here, which is trade below this gap. Here's a lot of different ways |
| 477 | 01:21:54 --> 01:22:03 | you can use what I'm telling you and what I'm explaining. Okay, all I'm saying is is this be responsible, whatever it is you're doing, you own it. If you make |
| 478 | 01:22:03 --> 01:22:19 | money with it, you did it on your own. If you lose money, eat it. Alright, so let's go over to s&p. Get through these real quick here, now. I am getting |
| 479 | 01:22:19 --> 01:22:31 | hungry. And you're probably gonna start hear my stomach growling. I don't eat the crepes that tweeted about that this morning, I make breakfast for my, my |
| 480 | 01:22:31 --> 01:22:46 | wife. She likes to have that stuff. And it's had a meal. Alright, so here's the weekly chart here, we had the market rally up in recent months, we were |
| 481 | 01:22:46 --> 01:22:55 | expecting the market to trade up at these levels. And then I gave you an outline for a bearish scenario looking for a quarterly shift, that means every three to |
| 482 | 01:22:55 --> 01:23:05 | four months, there's going to be a shift in market structure where the market can move sustained moves for two to three months. But as long as four months cuz |
| 483 | 01:23:05 --> 01:23:14 | there's a little bit of overlap where it's not, it's not running on a perfect three month calendar, just because we say quarterly that is not broken up |
| 484 | 01:23:14 --> 01:23:24 | equally into every three months, it can go a little bit past three months. And it can be as short as a price run of two months. All I'm stating is is when I'm |
| 485 | 01:23:24 --> 01:23:34 | looking at higher timeframe, weekly and daily charts. I'm looking at how we could for the next series of up to two to four months. Where could it be |
| 486 | 01:23:34 --> 01:23:44 | reaching for and I have these levels in mind. And I have them written on my pad. Okay, so my little notepad has higher timeframe monthly weekly for our levels. |
| 487 | 01:23:45 --> 01:23:54 | And they are very significant draws on liquidity for me and my trades. So if I think that there's going to be a drawl to a very low level, like for instance, |
| 488 | 01:23:54 --> 01:24:06 | say 42 like that, not that 42 on it is one. But for the sake of discussion here, say 4200 is a level that I felt is something of importance, and that we could |
| 489 | 01:24:06 --> 01:24:19 | reach down here on a longer term basis. Any trades that I would be taking, that's short, and if we get within 20 to 30 handles, I would likely be at my |
| 490 | 01:24:19 --> 01:24:32 | maximum risk which is 5%. If I'm taking trades, that would be moving away from my week, my monthly the weekly, daily and or for our levels. I'm not going to |
| 491 | 01:24:32 --> 01:24:44 | trade with 5% I'm going to trade with like one and a half percent maximum leverage. So the benefit of having all these higher timeframe levels is to know |
| 492 | 01:24:44 --> 01:24:55 | when you're going to push the envelope of your risk. If it's more likely to pan out and go into these higher timeframe levels, then I'm confident that my |
| 493 | 01:24:55 --> 01:25:03 | intraday trade executions are very, very tight. They're very specific. They're very extremely Be precise, I know what I'm looking for I know when they're going |
| 494 | 01:25:03 --> 01:25:13 | to likely form. And if I can frame them on the basis of moving in the direction and it starts getting real close to these higher timeframe levels, then I'm |
| 495 | 01:25:13 --> 01:25:23 | going to go with my maximum risk, which is 5%. Okay, that's how I ran up those empty for accounts. Okay? When you saw me run those things up, I was doing every |
| 496 | 01:25:23 --> 01:25:34 | single time I took an entry, I was using 5%, every new partial, or every new pyramid entry. In and of itself, that new entry was 5% risk. So some of those |
| 497 | 01:25:34 --> 01:25:49 | trades would have as much as a 20% impact on that account. But when you're running it, and you're getting hundreds of pips, it parlays it up fast. It's |
| 498 | 01:25:49 --> 01:26:02 | math, that's all it is. It's not a rented empty for server. It's not Photoshop, sorry. Anyway, no extra charge. So we went up into this city here, after working |
| 499 | 01:26:02 --> 01:26:20 | into a old low, so trending up into that. Can we revisit this? Hi, I prefer that it didn't. So I would like to see it stay. I would like to see it stay in the |
| 500 | 01:26:20 --> 01:26:36 | lower portion of this wick. Okay, so I would like to see if we have any kind of rally up this week, I want to really see it stayed below the 4391 level. So I'm |
| 501 | 01:26:36 --> 01:26:46 | expecting a little bit of movement around there, it can, it can start to gyrate towards that direction, I don't want to see a close above 4391. I don't want to |
| 502 | 01:26:46 --> 01:26:53 | see that. Not on a daily basis. Because if it does that, then it means we're probably gonna have to run this high. Again, it may be workup inside of this |
| 503 | 01:26:53 --> 01:27:02 | area where the volume imbalances residing. I like the fact that we didn't get up to the volume balance because that to me, indicates that it's heavy, it didn't |
| 504 | 01:27:02 --> 01:27:13 | want to close in all the city, which is big down close candle. And it didn t want to get back to the volume imbalance. So there's there's two factors that |
| 505 | 01:27:13 --> 01:27:24 | would be constituting a premium in the range of this high to where we made that low. So we were unable to get to the volume imbalance which would be here. So |
| 506 | 01:27:24 --> 01:27:25 | your chart will look like this. |
| 507 | 01:27:34 --> 01:27:47 | When we rallied up last week, we did not get to this volume imbalance. And we left all the portion here open. This is the this is the sell side unbalanced by |
| 508 | 01:27:47 --> 01:27:52 | 10 efficiency low and it's the highest so it would look like this shaded |
| 509 | 01:28:01 --> 01:28:17 | if you're learning, you can hit that like button, it would be great appreciation by me and we didn't get the consequent encroachment of the city. So what does |
| 510 | 01:28:17 --> 01:28:28 | that mean there's three things that would be normally viewed by me as a premium array. We couldn't get there to any of them. So that's nice. So when when I see |
| 511 | 01:28:28 --> 01:28:39 | that the logic is okay, we have this big wick. So now because we have that wick here, I don't want to see it trade above the halfway point of it, I want to see |
| 512 | 01:28:39 --> 01:28:44 | any retracement back up be maintained and held within this range here |
| 513 | 01:28:52 --> 01:29:00 | I'll take this off so you can see it. So any any movement to the upside I want it to be limited to |
| 514 | 01:29:09 --> 01:29:23 | go inside that range. Okay. And that is 4391. Nothing higher than and in between where we closed here so it can it can do anything at once in here. I just don't |
| 515 | 01:29:23 --> 01:29:35 | want to see it go above here on a closing face on the on the daily chart. As long as it does that I'll remain bearish for ES in bullish on dollar. So you see |
| 516 | 01:29:35 --> 01:29:44 | how taking all the markets together and put them together like a puzzle piece. That doesn't imply or ensure that I'm going to be correct. But I'm telling you |
| 517 | 01:29:44 --> 01:29:54 | how I teach how I use these PDE arrays how I'm using intermarket relationships, how I'm factoring in this geopolitical and wartime event where it creates a |
| 518 | 01:29:54 --> 01:30:03 | great deal of difficulty, because you don't know what's going to happen next. You don't know what sponsors are going to be by different nations and countries, |
| 519 | 01:30:03 --> 01:30:13 | and you don't know when it's going to pop off in your neighborhood. And all that stuff creates a great deal of interest in the market to speed up and rev up |
| 520 | 01:30:13 --> 01:30:22 | fear. So, because we're in this condition, and we're in the final quarter of the year, any animation and price is going to be exaggerated, it's going to be |
| 521 | 01:30:22 --> 01:30:30 | exaggerated, it's going to move a whole lot more, your targets, they're going to be easily met, but they're going to be probably blown out, and they'll go way |
| 522 | 01:30:30 --> 01:30:40 | past them. And you'll see them probably go to levels that I can't perfectly go to a methodology and says, Okay, this is what this is what it reached toward, it |
| 523 | 01:30:40 --> 01:30:51 | just goes beyond them. That's how you know that they're utilizing fear. That's manual intervention. But if you are looking at instances where we can still take |
| 524 | 01:30:51 --> 01:31:02 | trades and be acceptable, we'll have the risk that's involved around them. weighing out the risks, and still allowing for the best case scenario where we |
| 525 | 01:31:02 --> 01:31:11 | get the best of the best. So when you have a trade target, these are conditions where you want to go into okay, there's, this is where I want to get out, that |
| 526 | 01:31:11 --> 01:31:21 | is the perfect exit, you want to have 80% of your trade taken off before that, but leave something on to go past your best case scenario exit. That's the kind |
| 527 | 01:31:21 --> 01:31:30 | of climate we're in. You don't see that in books. And it's hard to articulate the reasons why and when you would trade like that, unless you're in these |
| 528 | 01:31:30 --> 01:31:40 | environments, which is exactly what I taught in my mentorship. That's mentoring. You watching things and understanding the logic, when I'm explaining something I |
| 529 | 01:31:40 --> 01:31:47 | sound very verbose about a lot of things that may not seem like it's all that impactful to you or useful to you. But for someone that's been trading for a |
| 530 | 01:31:47 --> 01:31:54 | while that has made money knows what it's like to be in conditions where they just didn't feel like they were dialed in, or knew what they were looking for, |
| 531 | 01:31:55 --> 01:32:03 | or something surprised them. I'm not usually surprised by very many things. I'm not, it doesn't mean I'm right all the time. It just means I'm not surprised. |
| 532 | 01:32:03 --> 01:32:11 | And I know that the climate that we're in right now, certain characteristics tends to tends to manifest itself in a way that I'm describing here in this |
| 533 | 01:32:11 --> 01:32:24 | lecture today. Any other time when we don't have the wartime events, we don't have the potential terrorism popping off everywhere. Then no, then I wouldn't |
| 534 | 01:32:24 --> 01:32:33 | expect this it would be here's the best case scenario target, I'll still get out of EDI and I will go one tick or two below where I think it's all doing trying |
| 535 | 01:32:33 --> 01:32:42 | to reach for and at least satisfy if I get that. That's, that's a normal functioning methodology for me. Because my weaknesses are my exits. I want them |
| 536 | 01:32:42 --> 01:32:52 | to be perfect. But I have not been able to be perfect consistently in a manner where if you look at by contrast, where my entries are there, they can be deemed |
| 537 | 01:32:52 --> 01:33:04 | phenomenal. But my exits are not satisfied. Because I'm using multiple timeframes many times to ascertain what those targets may be. And I don't know |
| 538 | 01:33:04 --> 01:33:14 | which one at the time I feel comfortable settling with, if I'm watching multiple timeframes, if I'm teaching while taking the trade, if my son sitting next to |
| 539 | 01:33:14 --> 01:33:22 | me, and he's, he's asking questions, because he's impulsive is a young guy, that might change my mind about something, because now I'm gonna be thinking about |
| 540 | 01:33:22 --> 01:33:31 | what he asked me. And I was willing to submit to this, this target. But now I'm wondering what he's thinking about. So can I think about my trade? Objectively, |
| 541 | 01:33:31 --> 01:33:40 | if I'm, if my heart's interest is to try to get my son to learn how to trade, he's asked the question, now I'm gonna try to think about how I can better |
| 542 | 01:33:40 --> 01:33:48 | answer him. So my focus is now broken. So there's a lot of things that takes place when you're trading. And if you're trading with real money, these |
| 543 | 01:33:48 --> 01:33:56 | decisions are heavier, not just going in, you're watching a tape read, or you're not really pushing a demo, you're not really trading with a combine, you're not |
| 544 | 01:33:56 --> 01:34:06 | trading with a funded account, you're, you're trading with real money. And when you're the least I can only speak this from my personal perspective. Once my |
| 545 | 01:34:06 --> 01:34:15 | concentration is broken, I'm done. Like I have to, I have to close the trade, because what will happen is that my bipolarism will kick in, and then what will |
| 546 | 01:34:15 --> 01:34:26 | happen is my rage will take over the management of the trade. And that's what has hurt me when I was in my younger years. That's the very thing that would |
| 547 | 01:34:26 --> 01:34:35 | take place, and I wasn't able to identify. So whenever I lose focus, whenever that is and whatever the catalyst was, that causes me to lose focus, I have to |
| 548 | 01:34:35 --> 01:34:44 | take myself out of a trade. And if it goes to my targets that would have been filled if I would have stayed in a trade, or if it goes way beyond it. I've just |
| 549 | 01:34:44 --> 01:34:54 | grown to accept the fact that I can be imperfect but profitable, and it's a very forgiving state of mind. And that's what I try to teach you. I try to teach you |
| 550 | 01:34:54 --> 01:35:04 | to have a low hanging fruit objective. And over the years, not a week, not a couple of months, not just the first here to over yours, you will get better and |
| 551 | 01:35:04 --> 01:35:13 | refining it. And one of you as my students are going to come up with an amazing exit strategy that is uniform. This is what you do all the same every single |
| 552 | 01:35:13 --> 01:35:20 | time you're going to use this method, and you'll get this high degree of accuracy. I hope I live long enough to see it, I'm confident that that's what's |
| 553 | 01:35:20 --> 01:35:28 | gonna happen. I've given enough resources and ideas for some of you, if not one of you, you're going to come for and say, This is what I found out that works |
| 554 | 01:35:28 --> 01:35:38 | for me. And I might end up utilizing it for myself. And I would be open upfront and say, this is this is exactly what I was looking for. And you found it for |
| 555 | 01:35:38 --> 01:35:47 | me. That would be wonderful. I would love to be able to do that. But until that happens, you know I wrestle with imperfections in terms of what I'm comfortable |
| 556 | 01:35:47 --> 01:36:00 | with settling with a target. So anyway, I just toss it in here because I felt like it needed to happen daily chart on ES Yeah, we don't want to see it trade |
| 557 | 01:36:00 --> 01:36:04 | above you on a closing basis. So we'll get this off here |
| 558 | 01:36:10 --> 01:36:23 | Alright, so there is no inefficiencies in this run here. But we did do what look real close. I'm not going to say anything I want you to look at it. We have just |
| 559 | 01:36:23 --> 01:36:29 | crossed over something that might be impactful going forward |
| 560 | 01:36:35 --> 01:36:36 | get a sneak a drink |
| 561 | 01:36:45 --> 01:36:46 | look at this candles Hi. |
| 562 | 01:36:59 --> 01:37:11 | This candles low. All right, now, let's play devil's advocate for a moment. Okay, say we gapped down and to opening. We have a gap lower opening. And then |
| 563 | 01:37:11 --> 01:37:22 | we trade back up to here. I would like to see this trade just to the low, not trade to the top be permissible to trade to the midpoint because this is a fair |
| 564 | 01:37:22 --> 01:37:34 | value gap. If we're bullish, this would be expected to offer what support and 10 cent price higher. But if we're bearish, we expect to see this to fail. And this |
| 565 | 01:37:34 --> 01:37:41 | is what happens when jokers literally look at things and they talk about something that I didn't talk about. But they'll point to a chart and say, Look |
| 566 | 01:37:41 --> 01:37:50 | at this. This is ICT stuff failing in your hands. It's failing because you don't know how to use it. But in the hands of someone that's proficient and especially |
| 567 | 01:37:50 --> 01:37:59 | the person that's created it, I'm telling you how I'm using it, this fair value gap fails, and it gives you insight. Now if everything were to happen, so we |
| 568 | 01:37:59 --> 01:38:10 | have a gap, lower opening, say we gapped lower than this candles low. Okay, we got lowered in Friday's low. It can trade back up to this verre gaps low. Have a |
| 569 | 01:38:10 --> 01:38:18 | mohawk that could reach to consequent encouragement I prefer didn't do that. It can go to the low and maybe a tick or two above it and not trade the consequent |
| 570 | 01:38:18 --> 01:38:29 | encouragement in certainly not trade to the upper portion of it. Why? Why would I say that here? Because we have had this candle go completely through and below |
| 571 | 01:38:29 --> 01:38:42 | it. Look row here. Look, we're closer here. You are getting a PhD level in terms of price delivery today. No charge. So yeah, we ran through this gap here. This |
| 572 | 01:38:42 --> 01:38:51 | whole candle here went all the way to the high of a gap, which is this candles low to and through the low of the gap, which is this candles high. And we create |
| 573 | 01:38:51 --> 01:38:59 | a little tiny little Mohawk Rite Aid covered Outside the Lines. That's completely permissible. It's acceptable. We are not afraid of that. Then this |
| 574 | 01:38:59 --> 01:39:10 | candle here, we trade down through it entirely. So now what did we do? Do we have any respect to this gap? Nope. Is that a bad thing? No. That means now if I |
| 575 | 01:39:10 --> 01:39:17 | get an extreme gap opening because it's the weekend, we don't know where we're going to open up on Sunday. If we open below this low, we're really technically |
| 576 | 01:39:17 --> 01:39:26 | oversold. We don't even care to tell you tell us that. We're really oversold and then they'll reprice against the opening price because everybody's going to want |
| 577 | 01:39:26 --> 01:39:33 | to do what chase it lower. Think it broke out to the downside. So they'll enter right away because the market started opening up in his trading. So now it's |
| 578 | 01:39:33 --> 01:39:42 | time to get out there and race the chase after investment profits. Let's just get out there and go do something. It's the weekend I'm working. Let me go out |
| 579 | 01:39:42 --> 01:39:56 | and just do a trade and it runs back up and touches the low of that fair value guy. I would like to see it do that and then roll over and go lower. Aiming for |
| 580 | 01:39:56 --> 01:40:07 | this day's low. Why? Because it's a daily low And then see if we can gravitate towards the sell side resting below here throughout the week. It may not happen |
| 581 | 01:40:07 --> 01:40:18 | this week, but gravitating towards this area down here, eventually, but treating this as a premium array and expecting it not to need to trade to the higher end |
| 582 | 01:40:18 --> 01:40:27 | of it. But how do you use that information? If you're going to use this as a mechanism to get short, your stop losses can be limited to consequent |
| 583 | 01:40:27 --> 01:40:35 | encouragement just a little bit above it. And then what's a little bit above it? It would have to be in my opinion, at least three to four handles above |
| 584 | 01:40:35 --> 01:40:42 | consequent coachmen. Because remember, we allow for what little Mohawks little coloring outside the lines. And if you're too demanding, and you want to have |
| 585 | 01:40:42 --> 01:40:52 | these one and a half, handle stop losses, what you can do on the lower timeframes, like the 15 second 32nd, one minute charts, you can do that. But I |
| 586 | 01:40:52 --> 01:41:00 | wouldn't try to do that in the climate that we have right now. Because there's a whole lot of they've sped up things where it tends to be a little bit more |
| 587 | 01:41:00 --> 01:41:08 | exaggerated, even when it's not moving much, it's still moving more than you're you're going to be comfortable dealing with a less than to handle stop loss, |
| 588 | 01:41:08 --> 01:41:14 | it's just you're asking that it's gonna get stopped out. And are you going to have the experience to see that trade still there and you were just being too |
| 589 | 01:41:14 --> 01:41:22 | greedy. And too tight with your stop loss to get right back in chances are probably not where I can be stopped out, you've seen me do it, I think three or |
| 590 | 01:41:22 --> 01:41:31 | four times this year, we're trading with real money, live money, not done not that no real money getting stopped out and me to go right back in and getting |
| 591 | 01:41:31 --> 01:41:40 | what I wanted to take downs a hall. So that's experience, but you can't, you can't understand these things. If I was to teach it through a book, just only |
| 592 | 01:41:40 --> 01:41:50 | through a book with a static chart, and then showing you after the fact here's what it looks like. It wouldn't mean as much you wouldn't be able to you |
| 593 | 01:41:50 --> 01:42:00 | wouldn't be able to take from it. The very impact that I'm trying to put forward in this discussion today. So seeing specific PD arrays, and it's not just simply |
| 594 | 01:42:00 --> 01:42:09 | a fair baguette that fails. There's many times I want PD arrays to fail, think about when I'm teaching you order flow. And I'm talking real water flow real |
| 595 | 01:42:09 --> 01:42:18 | institutional order flow has nothing to do it. Level two data has nothing to do with a DOM depth of market has nothing to do with volume profile has nothing to |
| 596 | 01:42:18 --> 01:42:28 | do with any of that gimmick has nothing literally to do with that. It's literally how every candle supports price as it's going higher, every down close |
| 597 | 01:42:28 --> 01:42:37 | candle in that down close candle algorithmic buying is taking place. So it goes without saying when it goes above that, it comes back down and touches it. It's |
| 598 | 01:42:37 --> 01:42:45 | not going to need to go back down in there because the algorithm has already extended the opportunity for the algorithms that use this in a marriage like |
| 599 | 01:42:45 --> 01:42:55 | handshaking between the delivery mechanism, the price engines that cause the fluctuations in price, and then the algorithms that can handshake with it. Like |
| 600 | 01:42:55 --> 01:43:03 | my Enigma, that my conceptual idea of how to handshake with with the markets algorithm, they dovetail perfectly together. That's what makes my stuff precise. |
| 601 | 01:43:03 --> 01:43:10 | That's what gives me the confidence to share things on Twitter before it happens. And you watch it happen in your chart every single week for years now |
| 602 | 01:43:10 --> 01:43:19 | two years you've watched it, where my private mentorship they've watched it for years. years daily, every single day, this is what I think's gonna happen. And |
| 603 | 01:43:20 --> 01:43:32 | over time you get comfortable with it. But when we see down close candles supporting price, what are we looking forward to on the opposite spectrum? When |
| 604 | 01:43:32 --> 01:43:43 | we're bullish on price, we want to see down close candles support price because they're acting as what bullish order blocks but we want to see bullish candles |
| 605 | 01:43:44 --> 01:43:52 | on the other side on the left side that would be considered what bearish order blocks as price was going lower, every up close candle should have offered what? |
| 606 | 01:43:53 --> 01:44:04 | Down downside delivery sell side delivery, moving lower. So we want to see price going through with ease, but through them. That's real institutional order flow. |
| 607 | 01:44:05 --> 01:44:12 | There's no depth of market necessary. There's no fake ladders and spoofing that can occur in that. It's finite. It's in your chart. You can see it everybody has |
| 608 | 01:44:12 --> 01:44:20 | the highest high and lowest low of every one of these candlesticks. Everybody that's looking at the Nasdaq futures contract that same delivery contract month |
| 609 | 01:44:20 --> 01:44:30 | of December 2023. We all have the same high and low on that candle right there. There's no There's no discrepancy we all have that. We can see it's right there. |
| 610 | 01:44:30 --> 01:44:41 | Okay. You can't do that with Forex, because everybody has their own Tom Dick and Harry spreads. And that's how it's it's not the gentleman's choice of markets. |
| 611 | 01:44:42 --> 01:44:49 | It's it was great when it was wild and wooly. And that's why I left futures to go over there because there was a lot of excitement and I knew I could do very |
| 612 | 01:44:49 --> 01:45:01 | well in short, little timeframes and capture big movements. But now we've had a little bit different dynamic. So I want to go back to what I trusted him where I |
| 613 | 01:45:01 --> 01:45:09 | started in 1992, which is the commodity and futures markets. And they're going to be much more precise and more refined. You're not going to see a whole lot of |
| 614 | 01:45:09 --> 01:45:18 | tomfoolery in it. It's very, very specific. You can make a career out of these one individual markets and not have to look at anything else. You got to figure |
| 615 | 01:45:18 --> 01:45:26 | out what forex pair to worry about new interest rate differential so worried about it's just are we bullish or bearish? And where are we looking to go? Real |
| 616 | 01:45:26 --> 01:45:38 | simple. You can very short work, work life do with one hour a day, and you're done. And it's consistent. But when we look at PV arrays, in and out using the |
| 617 | 01:45:38 --> 01:45:45 | institutional repo as an example, my point in saying all that was, when we're bullish, every down close candle should support price, every time it touches it |
| 618 | 01:45:45 --> 01:45:57 | goes into it, it should start repelling in setting price higher, and price should spool higher after doing so if we have met a range extreme, or we traded |
| 619 | 01:45:57 --> 01:46:05 | to buy side liquidity, that would constitute a potential reversal, while order flow has been bullish, and we've maybe capitalized on that. |
| 620 | 01:46:06 --> 01:46:15 | Now, if we have seen a run on buy side, and then it broke market structure, and then rallied up and give you 2022, short entry, what do you think you would be |
| 621 | 01:46:15 --> 01:46:24 | expecting, as the price is dropping down? Every one of those down close candles that supported price going up, you want to see price eat through that quickly |
| 622 | 01:46:24 --> 01:46:31 | with no hesitation, you want to see those down close candles with in the hands of anyone else, they're gonna think that that's a bullish order block, because |
| 623 | 01:46:31 --> 01:46:41 | they think every down closed candle is an order block. And it's not. It's not there's a narrative at work that you have to know what that is to make the order |
| 624 | 01:46:41 --> 01:46:57 | block be what you expect it to be in terms of a catalyst to be an entry, or a target. Hello. So every pdra has in its formation, a application of wanting to |
| 625 | 01:46:57 --> 01:47:08 | see it fail for the purposes of giving you an insight that you can use it for a counter trade idea that has an inverse nature to it. So when you see price like |
| 626 | 01:47:08 --> 01:47:14 | this, and you finally and what I just said for some of you that are brand new, you don't know what I'm talking about, and you don't really appreciate what I |
| 627 | 01:47:14 --> 01:47:23 | just said, but for students had been with me for a long time, they just had a light bulb moment, because now suddenly, like wow, I don't have to worry about |
| 628 | 01:47:23 --> 01:47:33 | my model in the pdra. Like the breaker, if it fails, I can have an inversion and trade off of that. If I use a mitigation block, and it fails, okay, when it |
| 629 | 01:47:33 --> 01:47:43 | trades back to it again, I can trade it inverse. And capitalize even with half the leverage and get back what I lost and still find a profit. So there's no |
| 630 | 01:47:43 --> 01:47:52 | reason for you to fear or try to avoid losing, because you're going to lose, you're going to have a losing trade, you will absolutely have a losing trade and |
| 631 | 01:47:52 --> 01:48:00 | probably have a series of them. Especially when you're brand new. But there's nothing to fear, there's nothing, there's no reason for you to fear that. |
| 632 | 01:48:00 --> 01:48:09 | Because your ability to judge and pick the very specific entry points and measure the risk that's appropriate for you, from your entry to where your risk |
| 633 | 01:48:09 --> 01:48:17 | is, that's a skill set, it's going to take you a while to figure that out. I have rules that help you do that. But you still like I talked about the Twitter |
| 634 | 01:48:17 --> 01:48:26 | space yesterday, on on my turfy. I talked about where motivation becomes impulse, you have all these good intentions of going in and looking at the |
| 635 | 01:48:26 --> 01:48:34 | chart, and maybe doing something that is highly organized and specific and disciplined. But when you get there and you're the excitement of maybe |
| 636 | 01:48:34 --> 01:48:41 | potentially missing it, and then second guessing yourself and you think well, you know, what if my model isn't there, but I do see it moving up here. And I |
| 637 | 01:48:41 --> 01:48:51 | think it's really going to go up above that old high or below that oh low and you completely abandon the model, then you trade recklessly and impulsively, you |
| 638 | 01:48:51 --> 01:49:00 | won't do those things, when you start seeing that this dynamic that is in price action. These things repeat all the time. They repeat all the time. And when |
| 639 | 01:49:00 --> 01:49:09 | your model fails you based on whatever pdra That is that you're using as a as an instrument for entry. Whatever that whenever that fails, just know that there's |
| 640 | 01:49:09 --> 01:49:18 | one of my students that we're looking for that very pdra to fail, because their model is returning back to it and then using that. Never looked at it like |
| 641 | 01:49:18 --> 01:49:27 | though it that way happier. But that's exactly what some of my students do. They're not. They're not breaking the models, they're not trading outside of |
| 642 | 01:49:27 --> 01:49:37 | what I taught. They're this using in a model that fits their expectations on price at that given time. And it may not be an inversion fair value gap that you |
| 643 | 01:49:37 --> 01:49:46 | use as your model, but it gives you the flexibility to say okay, I use fair value gaps to enter. But if I get it wrong, that means it's probably indicating |
| 644 | 01:49:46 --> 01:49:54 | that I'm really offside. So if it comes back up and trades back up into this level here, it might offer some measure of resistance, so therefore we could see |
| 645 | 01:49:54 --> 01:50:03 | an opportunity for it to trade and wherever the trade to here's the daily low right there. What could you use as a partial Before we get to that, half of this |
| 646 | 01:50:03 --> 01:50:04 | range, which is what? |
| 647 | 01:50:11 --> 01:50:20 | Right here, which will be right below Friday's low, the opening of that candle and the consequent curvature of the wick, do you have to take a partial every |
| 648 | 01:50:20 --> 01:50:28 | single one of them know which one would make sense for you based on how much you're leveraging where you got in at where the entry was. Because it could |
| 649 | 01:50:28 --> 01:50:37 | trade up to here and break extremely hard. And then the only first very right fair value get the gives you would be down in here that you would feel |
| 650 | 01:50:37 --> 01:50:49 | comfortable taken. And this is a lot of things that you have to weigh out. And unfortunately, there isn't this always easy 123 criteria recipe where it always |
| 651 | 01:50:49 --> 01:50:59 | does the same thing at the same manner, the same range and pips of risk the same pips in terms of the profit and every profit partial, should be only this many |
| 652 | 01:50:59 --> 01:51:07 | pips away from where you got to that doesn't, you can't do it that way and be consistently uniform. I wish it was like that. And I was trying very hard as a |
| 653 | 01:51:07 --> 01:51:17 | young man to make trading like that. And I've come to conclusion, it's not necessary. That's, that's something that will evade you. That's perfection. And |
| 654 | 01:51:17 --> 01:51:26 | perfection is not necessary in profitable trading. That's, that's an epiphany, that once you get that, you don't have to be perfect, to be profitable, and to |
| 655 | 01:51:26 --> 01:51:34 | be content in that profitability, not thinking I didn't get enough, which is why I always preach work, be content with enough, do you have more money today than |
| 656 | 01:51:34 --> 01:51:45 | you had at the start of the day, if you do, stop, go home, in profit, get used to feeling that, who cares? If it's only 50 bucks, who cares? If you just cost |
| 657 | 01:51:46 --> 01:51:55 | you covered the cost and commissions and you're not in a net loss for the day, we can go home and feel what that feels like and grow comfortable saying you |
| 658 | 01:51:55 --> 01:52:03 | know what, I didn't lose money today. Your first goal was to stay as a breakeven trader, because most people go right out the gate, no straight down and lose. |
| 659 | 01:52:05 --> 01:52:14 | You don't want to do that. You want to be able to maintain that watermark of where you open up your equity, that balance, you want to stay real close to |
| 660 | 01:52:14 --> 01:52:22 | that, until you figure out who you are and what you're trying to trade with. You're going to discover a whole lot about yourself when you start trading with |
| 661 | 01:52:22 --> 01:52:29 | real money. When there's real risk, you're going to decide whether or not you can trade with that model. With that timeframe, with that measure of risk that |
| 662 | 01:52:29 --> 01:52:37 | number of handles or pips that you're trying to use as a stop loss, it might not be feasible, you might need to trade with a larger stop loss, because your |
| 663 | 01:52:37 --> 01:52:46 | precision isn't there yet. And that's not a knock against you. That's not saying that you can't be more precise with lower small, smaller stop losses eventually. |
| 664 | 01:52:46 --> 01:52:54 | But so many of my students tried so quickly, to try to rush to these really small little tiny stop losses like that somehow makes you superior to someone |
| 665 | 01:52:54 --> 01:53:07 | else. It's not, because the chances of you getting stopped out expense exponentially increase. It demands precision that you may not have yet. Whereas |
| 666 | 01:53:07 --> 01:53:17 | someone that's brand new, and they offer themselves a 15 handle stop loss. That sounds like a lot it is if you're trading with five, or 15 contracts on a mini |
| 667 | 01:53:17 --> 01:53:29 | for s&p or NASDAQ, that is a lot. But you're not going to feel that way. If you're trading with one micro lot. It's not going to be that much. And you have |
| 668 | 01:53:29 --> 01:53:37 | to learn how to manage yourself, you have to learn how to hold on to these trades and not freak out and be in a rush to get your stop to breakeven or |
| 669 | 01:53:37 --> 01:53:48 | profitable. That's, that's an that's an entirely different lesson you have to learn to that can't be taught in a book, I can't teach you a lesson that makes |
| 670 | 01:53:48 --> 01:53:57 | you feel comfortable doing it, you have to follow the rules up provided and then do it. And you'll discover, okay, I need more time doing this with a lot less |
| 671 | 01:53:57 --> 01:54:09 | leverage. And which is why I tell you go down with the micro you know, $5 per per handle for the E Mini s&p, and $2 per handle on the NASDAQ. That's not a lot |
| 672 | 01:54:09 --> 01:54:20 | of money. But you can still make money doing that, and learning how to get good at it. So many of you get these funded account like my son, he can get these |
| 673 | 01:54:20 --> 01:54:28 | funded accounts. He's made money with it. And he ran in there and tried to do $150,000 account and dusted it quickly because he went back to doing big |
| 674 | 01:54:28 --> 01:54:36 | contracts again because he thought, well, I'll get you to replicate what I did there with more contracts and he found that he can't do it. The fluctuations of |
| 675 | 01:54:36 --> 01:54:46 | the money scares him. So if he's scared the money is he going to think about the trade hold it correctly? No. Two ticks or three ticks of movement, a bet against |
| 676 | 01:54:46 --> 01:54:55 | them. It scares him out of the trade. He closes it in a loss and then it runs in and where he's thinking it's gonna go and he does that multiple times and |
| 677 | 01:54:55 --> 01:55:03 | eventually hits the maximum loss and then that 150 Count is gone. He did that with two of them. This Week, you're not, you're not obligated to know that. But |
| 678 | 01:55:03 --> 01:55:10 | I'm telling you, just because he's my son, he's doing the same things that some of you probably are doing right now. Because you're impulsively trying to do |
| 679 | 01:55:10 --> 01:55:24 | things that you're not really ready to do with amount of risk. That's too high for you, you have to graduate into that. I don't know why I brought that. But |
| 680 | 01:55:24 --> 01:55:33 | just know that the stop losses, I would like to keep the stop loss tight here at just above consequent coaching, if it was a trade at that level there. And if I |
| 681 | 01:55:33 --> 01:55:41 | got stopped out, it's okay, because I'm following the rules of what I've outlined here. But because we've overlapped it, and we went from the highest |
| 682 | 01:55:41 --> 01:55:50 | point, the consequent curtailment of the fair Vega and the low and went beyond it, and we close below here, if we open below this low in trade back up to that |
| 683 | 01:55:50 --> 01:55:57 | level there, I would expect it to act as resistance. And it could only in my opinion, be high probability that stayed below consequent encroachment, or just |
| 684 | 01:55:57 --> 01:56:07 | one tick above it. And I would not want to see a trade at the high end of it, and still act as an inversion fair value, to offer lower prices. That's that's |
| 685 | 01:56:07 --> 01:56:18 | how I'm, that's how I'm framing it. So you know what I'm looking at why I'm even factoring any interest around these specific levels. So now, because if we have |
| 686 | 01:56:18 --> 01:56:26 | something at forums, and I point to something, whether it be hindsight after the fact, you know, throughout the week, you know that I've outlined the very things |
| 687 | 01:56:26 --> 01:56:34 | here, and if it doesn't work, it's great, you'll get to see what it's like to be here before the market opens up on a Sunday, where everything's completely |
| 688 | 01:56:34 --> 01:56:40 | random, you don't know where that opening price is going to be. And factoring all the other things I've talked about that's going on the world that makes |
| 689 | 01:56:40 --> 01:56:47 | things a little bit more complicated, complicated complex than it normally is. But you can still find opportunities. And this is how I would frame this for |
| 690 | 01:56:47 --> 01:56:58 | s&p. So 60 minute charts, what I just covered there, that would have been a charter level lesson. Only people that would have been at the charter level and |
| 691 | 01:56:58 --> 01:57:05 | other people were going through mentorship, and haven't gotten to that point of being charter, they never would have heard that lesson. That would have only |
| 692 | 01:57:05 --> 01:57:17 | been for a charter member student. They just learned something that they just learned for the first time. Stop buying in the people's mentorship saying that |
| 693 | 01:57:17 --> 01:57:26 | they're teaching something that I'm hiding, hiding away in some other chat room area, I'm not doing that. I'm not making videos for anyone because they're going |
| 694 | 01:57:26 --> 01:57:36 | to take them and sell them. I'm not creating a market for them. Okay. So I just want you to understand that. Alright, so this this drop down outside that gap |
| 695 | 01:57:37 --> 01:57:46 | closed in this portion of this last Annabelle cell seven efficiency. If you look over here, just a little to clean. And there's a gap right underneath it. So if |
| 696 | 01:57:46 --> 01:58:00 | you look at that, I like this. This inefficiency now has been repriced, to with the movement to here. So that gap is only this candles low to this candles high, |
| 697 | 01:58:00 --> 01:58:03 | so that you would extend it to the right. |
| 698 | 01:58:09 --> 01:58:22 | You thought I was just buying moving average crossovers. I did too. And it might seem like it's very, very complex right now. And it will be as a first |
| 699 | 01:58:22 --> 01:58:31 | introduction to it. But over time seeing it utilized and referring back to the same logic it repeats every single week, it's the same stuff. So we have |
| 700 | 01:58:31 --> 01:58:42 | inefficiency below price, and we have the buy side and sell side related this low. That would be the draw, should we move lower. If we move lower and and come |
| 701 | 01:58:42 --> 01:58:53 | back up and use this area here, and we haven't traded into the fare bag yet down here. That would be from this level of the daily inversion fair value gap to as |
| 702 | 01:58:53 --> 01:59:03 | much as the midpoint which is constant encouragement. From those two levels, there are anything between trading down in the net fair value gap, that will be |
| 703 | 01:59:03 --> 01:59:11 | a setup that I would like to trade this week. I would I would like to do that for ES if it offers it to me, I will try to do it. And if I can manage to |
| 704 | 01:59:11 --> 01:59:19 | finesse it or if I'm available in front of charts when it was to happen. I'll record myself doing it and it will it will be with a live account. So you can |
| 705 | 01:59:19 --> 01:59:27 | see it's real money. And you'll see that this is what I tried to do. I talked about it as a scenario. And this is what it looks like. Okay, you'll see a real |
| 706 | 01:59:27 --> 01:59:36 | stop loss. I don't trade without stop loss like a maniac that thinks he's always right. And then loses his as in front of everybody on the Livestream. Okay, I'm |
| 707 | 01:59:36 --> 01:59:46 | not trying to present perfection, but I'm trying to select very specific things that I feel are high probability. And I'm trying to engage them. That's what I |
| 708 | 01:59:46 --> 01:59:53 | talk about on Twitter when I point to something. I have already come to the conclusion within myself that this is something that I think has high merit. |
| 709 | 01:59:53 --> 02:00:03 | It's worth mentioning, it means I feel confident that I'm probably not going to be wrong. There isn't a lot of times where I point to something. And there is |
| 710 | 02:00:03 --> 02:00:14 | even less instances where I've talked about something on Twitter, and it not panning out. The point of that is, how many times have I done that? It's not |
| 711 | 02:00:14 --> 02:00:26 | every single day, because every day is not everyday trading. Day trading is not everyday trading. In the beginning, you want to be, you want to find an |
| 712 | 02:00:26 --> 02:00:32 | opportunity to do something every single day, because you're excited, you want to make money, you think there's an opportunity for you, as a brand new student, |
| 713 | 02:00:32 --> 02:00:42 | brand new participant in trading, you think that that's something that's realistic, and it's not. That's not someone that's versed in trading and |
| 714 | 02:00:42 --> 02:00:51 | understands price action, understands that model and understands themselves? Yeah, they can do that they can have an everyday profitable experience might be |
| 715 | 02:00:51 --> 02:00:58 | met with some losing trades intraday. But if they really know what they're doing, they can come out of that losing day, net last day and come back and |
| 716 | 02:00:58 --> 02:01:04 | cover costs and be very even, or maybe eke out a small profit. Or if you're really, really good and opportunities present themselves in the afternoon, the |
| 717 | 02:01:04 --> 02:01:13 | last hour of trading, you can find yourself from a net loss day in the morning, half, get back to break even on the pm session and somehow find your way into |
| 718 | 02:01:13 --> 02:01:23 | profitability on the fun our trading. But that type of trading isn't what a neophyte or a new student should expect. You shouldn't expect to be able to do |
| 719 | 02:01:23 --> 02:01:30 | that in your first year of trading. And I'm being 100% practical and honest with you. Some of you have expectations placed upon yourself that are not realistic. |
| 720 | 02:01:31 --> 02:01:40 | And when you don't hit them, or you're able to are not able to be able to do that in your trades, you feel that you're a failure. And it causes you to be |
| 721 | 02:01:40 --> 02:01:49 | impulsive and reckless. And then you do things that are outside your model, because you're angry at yourself. And you resent yourself. So you inflict |
| 722 | 02:01:49 --> 02:01:56 | punishment. But what you're really doing is in your mind, you're justifying why you're punishing yourself, but you're calling it punishing the market. I'm |
| 723 | 02:01:56 --> 02:02:05 | coming back with revenge, I'm going to take something from you. But really subconsciously, what you're doing is you want to lose. Because you don't want to |
| 724 | 02:02:05 --> 02:02:15 | stop doing what you can't control yourself from doing. That's what a gambler does. I talked about this yesterday to gamblers at some point, they get this, |
| 725 | 02:02:15 --> 02:02:22 | they get to this. It's called gamblers numbness where you just bet for the purpose of just you want to lose so that way you have nothing left to do, |
| 726 | 02:02:22 --> 02:02:28 | because you can't control yourself, you can't get away from the table, you can't get away from the slot machine, the One Armed Bandit, the jackpot machine, that |
| 727 | 02:02:28 --> 02:02:42 | unit that puts the money in the poor man's casinos game. At some point, a gambler, whether they're trading, or whether they're playing cards or at the |
| 728 | 02:02:42 --> 02:02:54 | casino, without seeing profitability, frustration kicks in. And normal person would say, Okay, let me just cut my losses here and go have a dinner or watch a |
| 729 | 02:02:54 --> 02:03:03 | show and come back in and try to do it tomorrow and see what I can get with it there. That would be mature. That would be someone with a good steward mindset |
| 730 | 02:03:03 --> 02:03:11 | with the money that have in their hands. But most people that go to casinos don't have that. So what'll happen is they'll keep gambling until they get to |
| 731 | 02:03:11 --> 02:03:20 | this point that's called gamblers numbness, where you don't care if you lose everything. In fact, subconsciously, that's exactly what you want. Because your |
| 732 | 02:03:20 --> 02:03:32 | your inability to leave the risk to leave the losing. And get back to a sound mind. You're incapable of doing it. So you start off offering the opportunity |
| 733 | 02:03:32 --> 02:03:39 | for everything that you have to be lost, which is the reason for you to stop because you don't have a mechanism to stop yourself. That means you're |
| 734 | 02:03:39 --> 02:03:48 | undisciplined. And many of you probably have experienced that right now, you can look back and think, wow, that's exactly what I was doing. I never looked at it |
| 735 | 02:03:48 --> 02:03:55 | that way. But you're doomed to repeat it unless you identify. That's exactly what it is. And you get to the point where you're just pushing the button for |
| 736 | 02:03:55 --> 02:04:04 | the sake of pushing the button, you need to immediately get out of that trade. preserve what you have left, take the rest of the week off period. There's no |
| 737 | 02:04:04 --> 02:04:11 | discussion about don't look at my tweets, don't watch my videos, don't talk about trading, don't look at charts, stop for a week. You have to ground |
| 738 | 02:04:11 --> 02:04:19 | yourself. That's it's really important that you understand that that is something that will wreck you. And I see people that have been trading for a |
| 739 | 02:04:19 --> 02:04:30 | long time. And they still do it. They can make money here and there. But they're not consistently profitable. They're not millionaires in trading. Despite saying |
| 740 | 02:04:30 --> 02:04:42 | that they are they fail, consistently trying to do something that's outside their potential or outside their skill set. And they're gambling with the one |
| 741 | 02:04:42 --> 02:04:48 | chance that they might be able to pull it off and then hoping that the public sees this and thinks that that's what they do all the time when they don't. |
| 742 | 02:04:51 --> 02:04:58 | That's just an aberration. It's just a one time event. And they're treating their trading over leveraging doing more contracts than they can reasonably |
| 743 | 02:04:58 --> 02:05:08 | handle Without a stoploss because they want it to be right to where they can champion this whole thing. And that's not what trading should be. It should be |
| 744 | 02:05:08 --> 02:05:16 | about picking very specific entry points, having very controlled risk that's reasonable, and a profit objective that is handsome enough to know that it's |
| 745 | 02:05:16 --> 02:05:25 | worth taking that risk. And the precision of entry around the logic and the narrative of why that trade should be performing that manner. Why why price |
| 746 | 02:05:25 --> 02:05:33 | should deliver that way? where it should go, why should it reach for that objective? It can't be just willy nilly and you know, some Mickey Mouse logic, |
| 747 | 02:05:33 --> 02:05:44 | it has to be something of substance that's outside of retail logic. Because if it's retail logic, that's flawed. It has to be on the basis of purpose of |
| 748 | 02:05:45 --> 02:05:53 | running for liquidity, or rebalancing and repricing to an old inefficiency. That's the only two things that causes prices to go up or down. Apart from that |
| 749 | 02:05:53 --> 02:06:02 | it's manual intervention and you can't time manual advantage, an intervention, you can expect it a specific week around calendar events. The economic calendar |
| 750 | 02:06:02 --> 02:06:09 | has a lot of big news reports or speeches or the Fed chair comes out okay. Yeah, man, oh, man, you want to which is likely to occur at that time in that round |
| 751 | 02:06:09 --> 02:06:20 | that day. But there are other instances where manual intervention come in, and completely surprise everybody with an explosive price move that was exaggerated |
| 752 | 02:06:20 --> 02:06:33 | well beyond what would be reasonable expected. And if you're offside in that event, that's risk that you didn't foresee when you first started trading. And |
| 753 | 02:06:33 --> 02:06:42 | I'm trying to be practical and reminding all of you that's always looming and it's really looming in forex right now. So I just want to make sure you |
| 754 | 02:06:42 --> 02:06:51 | understand it. Alright, let's finish this up. So as I can hear my wife down here bagging dishes around she's letting me know she's getting frustrated. My Way |
| 755 | 02:06:51 --> 02:06:59 | daily, so traded up made a high here, we broke low had a shift in market structure came back up to a bearish order block, rotated lower, lower, took out |
| 756 | 02:06:59 --> 02:07:07 | another sell side liquidity pool here. Just got inside. As you remember, I said I wanted to see it trade down into here, go back and look at the old reviews on |
| 757 | 02:07:07 --> 02:07:17 | this YouTube channel. They're all they're all time and date stamped. I can't time travel and go back and edit them. So let's take this off here. So we went |
| 758 | 02:07:17 --> 02:07:26 | down in below that low here, it was a little too shallow for my liking. There is a gap we traded up into that consequence of this wick. We'll highlight that |
| 759 | 02:07:31 --> 02:07:42 | Okay, so we went about that just a little bit Mohawk then rejected there. So we did the effects of repricing to the fair pay gap this this candles low this |
| 760 | 02:07:42 --> 02:07:49 | candles high. So we repriced there went up to the consequent Christian of that wick, which is reasonable, it's expected. And we did bumped up by side above |
| 761 | 02:07:49 --> 02:07:56 | this short term high. So these are all things I talked about on the hourly chart. And when you download our chart, I'll show you what I mean in specific |
| 762 | 02:07:56 --> 02:08:06 | terms. But we went above there. And then we offered what sell side delivery went lower. So now we have a couple of things to look at on the downside should the |
| 763 | 02:08:06 --> 02:08:16 | equities move lower. These are the levels I'm going to be using going forward for this week. Consequent curtailment of this tail of this candle, I'm going to |
| 764 | 02:08:16 --> 02:08:26 | take this off, okay. So that way, it keeps everything germane to what I'm referring to. So this is the first objective on the downside I would be |
| 765 | 02:08:26 --> 02:08:37 | interested in, I would like to see it reach for that. I want to see a daily close below this level right here. If I see a daily close below that level, I'm |
| 766 | 02:08:37 --> 02:08:43 | going to feel confident that we're going to run there, well two equal lows here and dig down into deeper portions of this. What can we look for specifically in |
| 767 | 02:08:43 --> 02:08:52 | that range? Well, it's consequat encroachment, or midpoint of that, which is 14,004 31 in three quarters. So that's a key level. So that will be on my |
| 768 | 02:08:52 --> 02:09:02 | notepad, this candles low is going to be my notepad because an old fair value gap on the weekly. So it's a drop in liquidity always is always going to be a |
| 769 | 02:09:02 --> 02:09:11 | factor for wanting to reach and revert back to that. Even if it goes through, I don't care. It's something to have in your charts ever in your notes that that |
| 770 | 02:09:11 --> 02:09:21 | level is going to be significant. It's salient to future price delivery for this week. It's in the realm of potential to revert back to it. And then the midpoint |
| 771 | 02:09:21 --> 02:09:35 | of this candlesticks wick which is 14,007 77. Okay, so with those with those levels in mind, on the premium side, I wouldn't be so concerned about the high |
| 772 | 02:09:35 --> 02:09:37 | last week, but I would be reframing |
| 773 | 02:09:43 --> 02:09:53 | the sell side of balanced bites on efficiency here. So you would use these levels, the 13,003 56 and three quarters which is the high of the city or cell |
| 774 | 02:09:53 --> 02:10:03 | Senate balanced by Senate efficiency, its consequent encroachment, which is 15,000 to 68 and three quarters or Is that right? Let's say that right eyes are |
| 775 | 02:10:03 --> 02:10:06 | not behaving like they should. |
| 776 | 02:10:17 --> 02:10:35 | 15,002 Zero 8.75 And then the the lower the SEBI, which is 15,060.75. Okay, so this inefficiency here. So what we have down here is the discount, Paseo del Sol |
| 777 | 02:10:35 --> 02:10:47 | summon efficiency. And this is the premium, because above where we closed. So, what's above the closing price? This inefficiency. So, I would like to see price |
| 778 | 02:10:47 --> 02:10:59 | stay at the lower portion of this city not come back up into this area here in the upper portion. But what happens if it does? What could we what could we |
| 779 | 02:10:59 --> 02:11:07 | allow for even though we don't want to really see it, but what could we allow for, we can allow for it to trade up into this week's consequent encouragement, |
| 780 | 02:11:08 --> 02:11:20 | which is here. So it's about the upper quadrant of this inefficiency, see that this level here, which is half of this wick, is exactly approximately this kind |
| 781 | 02:11:20 --> 02:11:30 | of term, it's exactly approximately it's pseudo precision, the upper quadrant of the city, so I mean, shade that because this is what it would be acting as |
| 782 | 02:11:31 --> 02:11:45 | bearish. So let's keep everything in germane color scheme. So we have 15 to 88.25. That's the worst case scenario. And upside. If we, if we close above that |
| 783 | 02:11:45 --> 02:11:53 | on a daily chart, then to me, I'm on the sidelines, I'm not interested, I'm gonna I'm gonna sit and wait. But as long as we remain below that, and below |
| 784 | 02:11:53 --> 02:12:00 | constant encouragement of the city here, I will be expecting weakness or or heaviness. And then when we get down to this level here, that'll be the first |
| 785 | 02:12:00 --> 02:12:11 | objective for profit taking, or partial. And then we have the old boss Annabelle sauce on efficiency, which is this candles low, that would be a target and he |
| 786 | 02:12:11 --> 02:12:23 | had the relative equal lows here. So they're real, real tight, with within like, very, very close proximity to each individual price, the low of that candle |
| 787 | 02:12:23 --> 02:12:33 | comes in ad 86, even in this one's at 89. Evens are only talking about three handles. So there's sellside below that, and if we reach below, it's not going |
| 788 | 02:12:33 --> 02:12:39 | to just be reaching below up by a little bit and come back up. It's going to reach below and reach down to consequent encouragement and probably repriced, |
| 789 | 02:12:39 --> 02:12:49 | down to the low at 14 to 44 and a half. So that's what I'm expecting going forward the levels I'd be anticipating that would be impactful for the week, you |
| 790 | 02:12:49 --> 02:12:56 | see that here. Now. We'll jump into the daily chart. Okay, you can see how we worked up into this fair value gap here. |
| 791 | 02:13:02 --> 02:13:19 | No, yes. Okay, we worked off that. Just a little bit of a contrast, trade right up into the here, clear the buy side actually talked about that very area, in |
| 792 | 02:13:20 --> 02:13:27 | discussions last week, go look at this stuff. Don't just take what I just said here. So I will ask you to satisfy believe it. Go back and listen, and you'll |
| 793 | 02:13:27 --> 02:13:35 | see me specifically point, these is a little too clean, I would say trade up into that area here. It did it, pumped into it. And then would it do behave in a |
| 794 | 02:13:35 --> 02:13:46 | manner where it's seeking what this count sold off? small, little fair value gap in here, which it went through. What are you thinking? What are you thinking? |
| 795 | 02:13:49 --> 02:14:05 | Right there, we traded right through this small little inefficiency. Right there. What do you think that that might offer us? It's not guaranteed? But what |
| 796 | 02:14:05 --> 02:14:18 | would you consider that to be? I use weight so that way, you wouldn't remind you because of the color inversion for Vega. So if we get lower down here, and we |
| 797 | 02:14:18 --> 02:14:29 | trade back up to this area here, I would like to see it trade too and as much as what the high. Why? Because we only have the high of the fair Vega nothing else |
| 798 | 02:14:29 --> 02:14:39 | went through Except there's one single pass. So in this instance, we can allow for it to completely trade back to through and have a mohawk and that's |
| 799 | 02:14:39 --> 02:14:48 | completely permissible. And then we'll see if it offers resistance there and see if it was a trade down below this candles low. That will be a new objective. |
| 800 | 02:14:48 --> 02:14:58 | Because there sell Cibolo that candles low. It's a daily low and then we look forward to reach down into the sell side below here. But prior to that, where |
| 801 | 02:14:58 --> 02:15:05 | else could you expect to see The partial if you're bearish, and you're just learning, and you don't want to hold on to something that needs to go through |
| 802 | 02:15:05 --> 02:15:15 | all this price action, because it could go down into this area, bounce back up to the low of that night scare you. What could you reach for consequent |
| 803 | 02:15:15 --> 02:15:17 | encouragement of this week |
| 804 | 02:15:22 --> 02:15:32 | can go down to there and come all the way back up to this level here. And then, you know, break lower. So when you have these balanced price ranges of back and |
| 805 | 02:15:32 --> 02:15:42 | forth price action like that, remember, it takes a lot it did rip right through that unless it's extremely heavy, and it's being powered through with a lot of |
| 806 | 02:15:42 --> 02:15:51 | other factors behind it. But we might not get that this week. So it's important to know where you want to take your partials which will be below this low here, |
| 807 | 02:15:53 --> 02:16:02 | consequent coachmen here, and it could come back up, traded this one here, or just a little bit below it, not take these lows out, come right back up and |
| 808 | 02:16:02 --> 02:16:13 | trade into the constant encouragement of this. Trade right back to that, and then at a later time, take out the sell side. That's what makes trading with a |
| 809 | 02:16:14 --> 02:16:23 | high resistance liquidity run, which is trading through these types of consolidations. You have to be able to pick where it's reasonable for you to |
| 810 | 02:16:23 --> 02:16:33 | take partials. So I'm I'm tipping my hand and to you because you've spent the time here, and I'm kind of rewarding your your patients listening to this. The |
| 811 | 02:16:33 --> 02:16:41 | trades that I take partials on are the ones that I'm trading inside of a high resistance liquidity run. If I'm trading on a low resistance, liquidity run |
| 812 | 02:16:41 --> 02:16:51 | signature, I'm not taking any partials, they're full polls. That means whatever I get in it, I'm picking my target, and I'm just letting it go. high resistance |
| 813 | 02:16:51 --> 02:16:59 | liquidity runs are still likely to pan out and my targets could still be met. But I don't know for certain if it's going to happen during the session, I'm |
| 814 | 02:16:59 --> 02:17:09 | willing to sit in front of charts. So I have to pick out where my partials are, where I know I have a time my day is scheduled. It may not seem like that right |
| 815 | 02:17:09 --> 02:17:15 | now. Because my wife's down here, probably pissed off because I'm a little bit longer than what but she knows that it's likely to happen. And that's why it |
| 816 | 02:17:15 --> 02:17:24 | needs to stop in the 11th of November. So she's been very, very patient, she probably already started eating without me actually, she probably hit me with a |
| 817 | 02:17:24 --> 02:17:33 | great when I go down here. But knowing that the likelihood of the market presenting a reluctance to get through a balanced price range is what makes us a |
| 818 | 02:17:33 --> 02:17:45 | balanced price range. By the way, the prices offered sell side by side sell side by side and it left the range, all this consolidation. So it takes a more |
| 819 | 02:17:45 --> 02:17:53 | meaningful move to get through all that and it generally doesn't happen in one single pass. So what I like to do is either break that range up into where it's |
| 820 | 02:17:53 --> 02:18:01 | reasonable and where it's logical for the market to at least trade to the midpoint of that wick, that could be the first target to take a partial if |
| 821 | 02:18:01 --> 02:18:13 | you're bearish, the low of that candle, the consequent encroachment of this wick and it need not take the lows out here to still be profitable. And then down |
| 822 | 02:18:13 --> 02:18:20 | here, I expect it to try to do some kind of a fake thing, right? Trades, this level doesn't quite get down here yet, and maybe come back up to consequent |
| 823 | 02:18:20 --> 02:18:31 | crush on this wick or the low of it. And then move lower, doesn't have to do that. But I make allowance for that when I'm trading against high resistance |
| 824 | 02:18:31 --> 02:18:42 | liquidity runs. That low resistance liquidity runs, I don't have any partials in I will stick out stick my entire trade on the initial entry and my stop, I'll |
| 825 | 02:18:42 --> 02:18:51 | just manage it to where I can kick the risk away. And then once it's removed, I just let it go. Because my conviction behind the the analysis and the trade is |
| 826 | 02:18:51 --> 02:18:58 | that it's more, it's more probable that it's going to go where I think it's gonna go and not need for me to scale off anything because it might have a |
| 827 | 02:18:59 --> 02:19:06 | retracement, it's deeper than I'm willing to accept or be able to manage because I can't be in front of charts because I've scheduled this much time for my day |
| 828 | 02:19:06 --> 02:19:19 | to do this and other places to be other things that take care of or requirements for my family. So that's that and let's go over real quick though. Any gap lower |
| 829 | 02:19:19 --> 02:19:27 | opening at Sunday and little wall here in about three hours. The drop below this and opening if it does that we can see it trade back up here and all the way |
| 830 | 02:19:27 --> 02:19:35 | back to the top of the fairway gap because it's only had one pass through and nothing else has happened since the formation of the Faraday gap. So very |
| 831 | 02:19:35 --> 02:19:43 | critical rule based idea when it comes to trading the inversion fair value gaps. The rule based idea is very specific. It's not complicated. You know exactly |
| 832 | 02:19:43 --> 02:19:50 | when they anticipate certain ones that stay open now when they anticipate when they are going to completely fill in. When is it best case scenario for it to go |
| 833 | 02:19:50 --> 02:20:00 | halfway. You now have got that information now. So when I talk about in my book, you'll see this video being prompted to you as a amplification of What I just |
| 834 | 02:20:00 --> 02:20:09 | mentioned about trading inversion, fair value gaps, okay? No cost, you don't need to buy my book. Okay? I just explained it here. Alright, so let's go over |
| 835 | 02:20:09 --> 02:20:17 | to a guy who writes a book and tells everybody not to buy it. Again, it's already rich and doesn't need the money. Alright, so we go over here and look at |
| 836 | 02:20:17 --> 02:20:30 | the sell side here. And as a buy side and bounce still remaining there. So initially, the inbound starts here to here. Okay, so it looks very similar to |
| 837 | 02:20:30 --> 02:20:45 | what we were outlining on the ES. So that's this, okay. And because in this imbalance, we had all this price delivery down. So the only remaining portion of |
| 838 | 02:20:45 --> 02:20:55 | inefficiency for sell side, because it's biocide, imbalance, it's inefficient for sell side, but look at all these candles, we went down in. So this level |
| 839 | 02:20:55 --> 02:21:03 | here on this candle is low, this candle is high. This is the remaining inefficiency, it's lacking sell side delivery, that means movement lower by |
| 840 | 02:21:03 --> 02:21:18 | price. So we use that information is below this lowest sell side. And the inefficiencies here. So the market could draw, draw down into this, these two PV |
| 841 | 02:21:18 --> 02:21:27 | arrays or discount by nature. And that's what I expect to see, at some point, you know, I'd like to see a framework that would allow me to see this inversion, |
| 842 | 02:21:27 --> 02:21:35 | fairway get to see a trade entry, and then reach down here, and that would be something I would like to do. That's really, really what I'd like to do. But how |
| 843 | 02:21:35 --> 02:21:44 | we open, you know, if we open relatively unchanged, I'm not gonna be so you know, fever pitch to, to get short at that inversion pay gap. I mean, I'd like |
| 844 | 02:21:44 --> 02:21:51 | to see a trade there, start to move lower, create an imbalance a fair value, get on a lower timeframe, trade into the fair value gap, and then use these areas |
| 845 | 02:21:51 --> 02:22:00 | down here as the draw from my trade. So what did I just gave you, not a plan a plan B, I gave you very specific things. If it does this, I will do that. If it |
| 846 | 02:22:00 --> 02:22:08 | does that thing. I will do that. I'm not going long. Did you hear anything about going long? No. So it's not playing a Plan B, I gave you two scenarios that I |
| 847 | 02:22:08 --> 02:22:17 | feel confident that if I get them, I will sell short, NASDAQ, I will sell short with a live account, I will make money with a live account trading these setups |
| 848 | 02:22:17 --> 02:22:25 | because I believe it's this is what's being framed, okay? I'm not saying that you should take these trades, I'm just saying that I'm willing to do it. If I'm |
| 849 | 02:22:25 --> 02:22:33 | in front of charts, if that materializes at the time I'm looking at it, I will use this framework to take that trade. That is not a trade signal, that is an |
| 850 | 02:22:33 --> 02:22:39 | invitation for you to follow me, it's not for you to take it on your own. It's not for you to trade your combine. It's not for you to trade your funded |
| 851 | 02:22:39 --> 02:22:47 | account, it's not for you to try to demonstrate it or your tape read, it's for you to just know what I'm thinking and how I'm utilizing the current market |
| 852 | 02:22:47 --> 02:22:56 | structure. Okay. I want you to be 100% responsible with what I'm sharing here, because I don't want you taking it in some some way, twisting and contorting it, |
| 853 | 02:22:57 --> 02:23:04 | where if you do something and you hurt yourself, nobody told you to do it. I didn't tell you to do it. Okay, I'm just telling you how I see things as it is |
| 854 | 02:23:04 --> 02:23:15 | in this chart right now and how I'd use the information. Right now, I think that is going to be it because I told you I was gonna go after NASDAQ. But we did |
| 855 | 02:23:15 --> 02:23:26 | redacted the dollar index. So if you found this today helpful if it gives you greater insight about the inversion fair value gap of counsel you and helped you |
| 856 | 02:23:26 --> 02:23:33 | in terms of how to measure and manage your expectations as a developing trader or someone that is already profitable. But this finds their way into some kind |
| 857 | 02:23:33 --> 02:23:41 | of a pitfall here and there. I'd greatly appreciate if you give it a thumbs up. It doesn't make me any more money. I promise you because the videos that give me |
| 858 | 02:23:41 --> 02:23:49 | the most thumbs up. Don't pay any more in ad revenue than the ones that don't even put thumbs up on. Okay, so it's just a reflection as you as the audience, |
| 859 | 02:23:49 --> 02:23:55 | that you've appreciated me spending my time because I could be doing other things. I don't need to do this. But if you're getting value from it, the way |
| 860 | 02:23:55 --> 02:24:04 | you tell me is the thumbs up. That's all you have to worry about. It's cheap, it's free, doesn't cost you anything takes a second to do it. It just motivates |
| 861 | 02:24:04 --> 02:24:12 | me to do more of it. We'll like still do it if there's only a new one like or one thumbs up probably. But I just like to see it. It's an encouragement to me. |
| 862 | 02:24:12 --> 02:24:21 | So I wish you all very pleasant remainder of Sunday. I'm quite certain I'll be talking to you on Twitter tomorrow, Lord willing in to talk to you then be safe. |