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ICT YT - 2023-10-06 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - October 2023 NonFarm Payroll Tape Reading Session

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-10-16 19:18

Outline

01:33 - Trading strategies for high-impact news events.

- ICT warns of high levels of manipulation and manual intervention on this day of the month, making precision trading difficult.
- ICT advises new traders to avoid trading on Non Farm Payroll days, as the high impact news driver can cause large movements that are difficult to predict.
- ICT has been wrong many times in the past on Non Farm Payroll days, and it's important to be cautious and not take any trades on these days.

06:55 - Trading non-farm payroll with a focus on liquidity and inefficiencies.

- Trader identifies inefficiency in market liquidity ahead of Non Farm Payroll release.
- ICT teaches students to identify inefficiencies in the market by analyzing highs and lows on a 5-minute chart.
- ICT uses non-farm payroll numbers as a case study to demonstrate how to trade off inefficiencies, potentially dropping down to a lower high and then rallying back up to take out short positions.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of studying price action during Non Farm Payroll hours without risking real money, as the probabilities are shifted against traders during this time.
- ICT advises against trading Non Farm Payroll between 8am and 9:30am, but suggests resuming normal trading activities after 10am.

13:31 - Trading strategies and market analysis.

- Trader discusses potential price action in NASDAQ, including gap and sell-side activity.
- ICT expects a level of interest near the new week opening gap high, potentially leading to an upside breakout.
- ICT struggles with balancing efficiency and risk as a mentor, often failing to provide correct suggestions.

20:20 - Technical analysis and market levels.

- ICT explains the new week opening gap, which is the difference between the opening price on Sunday and the settling price on Friday.
- The algorithm refers back to this level throughout the week, and it's not the same as a new day opening gap or an opening range gap.
- ICT annotates key levels on his chart for the markets he's watching, including support and resistance levels, and uses these levels to inform his trading decisions.
- ICT does not have these levels on his chart when he's trading, instead relying on his annotated chart to help him stay focused on price action and avoid distractions.

25:59 - Market inefficiencies and potential trading opportunities.

- ICT expects NG to form a daily consolidation range and potentially close around 50% of the gap, while ES and NASDAQ may break their daily ranges.
- ICT notes that the sudden run for liquidity in NG is unexpected, and it will be interesting to see if it has the willingness to get back up to the low of the inefficiency.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of respecting the inherent risk in trading and not taking unnecessary risks, especially when it comes to shorting.
- The speaker analyzes the ES, gold, and pound-dollar charts, looking for potential levels of support and resistance.

32:29 - Trading strategies and market analysis.

- ICT expects the market to trade within a specific range and potentially form an inversion Fairbury gap, with a target of 920-945.
- If the market breaks above the fair value gap before 930, ICT will sit on their hands and wait for a potential sell signal at 10 o'clock.
- Trader expresses frustration with market volatility and lack of control.
- Trader warns against shorting during Non Farm Payroll due to large displacement to the downside.

39:11 - Trading strategies for volatile markets.

- ICT: Market may consolidate after rapid price movement, making it difficult for traders to enter positions.
- ICT warns of the dangers of trading without real-time data, leading to mental scar tissue and second-guessing.

43:34 - Trading strategies and market analysis.

- ICT expects the market to stay above a certain level until 9:30 AM, then potentially create a shorting opportunity.
- The speaker believes the market is fake and manipulated by smart money, with the potential for scaling out and taking gains as prices retrace.

49:34 - Gold, stocks, and the dollar.

- ICT: Stock market reflects unwarranted multiples, big money leaving risk.
- ICT predicts gold price could reach $25,000 due to central bank digital currencies and dollarization efforts.
- Investor warns of potential gold price surge, but advises caution due to market volatility.

Transcription

1 00:01:33 --> 00:01:45 ICT: Good morning. Good morning. If you'd be so kind, if you follow me on Twitter, I'm doing something measured done yesterday, check to see if the audio
2 00:01:46 --> 00:01:59 is okay. Can you see that I have a NASDAQ chart up here. And if you'd give me the okay that the volume is good, simple five by five would be sufficient.
3 00:01:59 --> 00:02:00 Appreciate it if you could.
4 00:02:11 --> 00:02:13 Momentum trader Thank you, Jeremy. Thank you
5 00:02:18 --> 00:02:31 Tyler. Alright. So before we get into this, it's very, very important that you understand that what I'm going to discuss today is absolutely not to be intended
6 00:02:31 --> 00:02:44 as trade advice, not financial advice. It's simply a warning. Okay, I'm going to read price. As if I were interested in taking a live trade, I'm not going to
7 00:02:44 --> 00:02:57 take a live trade, I'm going to explain to you what I see in in price action and the delivery of price. And what I would expect. Now let me preface it by saying
8 00:02:57 --> 00:03:13 that I actively ongoing teach that this day out of all the days of every calendar month, this is the day that I have no confidence that even with my
9 00:03:13 --> 00:03:28 concepts would be able to deliver the precision that I would expect in demand of it in other days, because this day is many times used with high levels of
10 00:03:28 --> 00:03:44 manipulation, okay, and manual intervention where the market itself is being pushed beyond the normal boundaries of what would be reasonable. Now, if there
11 00:03:44 --> 00:03:54 ever was a time when the market can be random, it's during manual intervention. And there are times in the calendar month where you need to be aware of that.
12 00:03:54 --> 00:04:05 And it's usually when there's a rate announcement, very large impact news drivers like CPI, the Non Farm Payroll and the Thursday prior to Non Farm
13 00:04:05 --> 00:04:16 Payroll. So here is Non Farm Payroll Friday. The classic idea is that because it moves around a lot, or it has a tendency to sometimes because sometimes it can
14 00:04:16 --> 00:04:29 just do nothing. And a lot of excitement leading into the 830 News driver that's gonna release here in about 90 and a half minutes or so. That idea of chasing
15 00:04:29 --> 00:04:40 the quick, fast movement. It's treated as a lottery ticket. Okay, so if you're brand new as a student, or if you're brand new as a trader, and you don't have a
16 00:04:40 --> 00:04:51 model you don't know you're looking for, it's advised that you don't touch this day. In fact, try not to do any training at all on Thursday or Friday of that
17 00:04:51 --> 00:05:00 week of Non Farm Payroll. If you have a model, if you know what you're doing, then obviously and I've shown examples of this as well my students You can do it
18 00:05:00 --> 00:05:10 as well, after 10 o'clock of nonfarm payroll, everything resumes, and you can be a trader after that. But it's important to understand that there are specific
19 00:05:10 --> 00:05:22 rules to this when you're brand new. And these are days where, and hopefully, I'll explain something today and expect to see something perform a particular
20 00:05:22 --> 00:05:34 way. And it not work. That's, that's what I'm hoping to do. Okay, I've tried to do this several times, in the past where I've talked about the Non Farm Payroll
21 00:05:34 --> 00:05:43 live. And I've been write more than I wanted it to be, because it doesn't really communicate the level of concern that I try to preach to you that you should
22 00:05:43 --> 00:05:54 have about it. So I'm hoping, since the I think the next next month will be the last nonfarm payroll together, livestream that one as well. So if I get it right
23 00:05:54 --> 00:06:02 or wrong on this one, at least, we'll have one more opportunity in November to see it live, where I'm outlining what I think is going to happen. So with all
24 00:06:02 --> 00:06:13 that said, Just please be careful, don't take anything I'm about to say, as an invitation to get into a trade, or view something as a confirmation as something
25 00:06:13 --> 00:06:22 that you've already assumed might have. Okay, I'm probably going to be wrong this morning. It's usually something I don't like this, say too much, because
26 00:06:22 --> 00:06:34 I'm confident in my concepts and my models. But this day is kryptonite. Because it literally can do whatever you don't think it's going to do. And you may miss
27 00:06:34 --> 00:06:46 a trade or get hurt in a trade, and it causes toxicity. So it's just better to let it not be a factor for you at all, from a psychological perspective, one
28 00:06:46 --> 00:06:56 trading day or two trading days out of a month, you know, around a high impact driver, not touching it is not going to be the end of your career. It's forming
29 00:06:56 --> 00:07:05 discipline. It's good sound money management, it's preservation of capital, and it's not gambling. That's the number one tenant to it. You're not trying to
30 00:07:05 --> 00:07:16 gamble, okay. Alright, so we're looking at the NASDAQ before I look at this one, because I'm going to be focusing on this specific market, but I want to quickly
31 00:07:16 --> 00:07:30 look at the ES. Okay, and I was up overnight watching the London sessions, because I had every expectation to come out here this morning, like I'm doing.
32 00:07:31 --> 00:07:41 And I was watching. And I wish I would have mentioned it now. But some of you probably already were looking at it. But these clean highs on s&p, I was kind of
33 00:07:41 --> 00:07:49 hoping they were going to leave those intact, ahead of the Non Farm Payroll number. And if it would have been the case that they would have left them in
34 00:07:49 --> 00:08:01 play. No words, if it didn't run out like it did here. That would have been the initial draw at 830. Now since it has done that it's ran for buy side traders
35 00:08:01 --> 00:08:12 are now caught long. And there is an inefficiency right there. See that. So when I look at Non Farm Payroll, and this is what I'm telling you, you should do
36 00:08:12 --> 00:08:21 every single opportunity for you to study non farm payrolls, you should try to trade it. But it's an amazing study on liquidity. It literally is one of the
37 00:08:21 --> 00:08:34 best case studies you can do. And you can back test it look at old data. But it's better for you to to log it on all timeframes, and back tested through each
38 00:08:34 --> 00:08:43 timeframe looking for what liquidity was taken, how long did it take to move after that liquidity was taken? So long story short, what I'm saying right now
39 00:08:43 --> 00:08:55 off the cuff. Just looking for the draw on liquidity, I would expect that this inefficiency would be revisited today. Okay, in the sell side below there. Now,
40 00:08:55 --> 00:09:05 does that mean we go down here then go higher? It could? Does it mean we go up one more time to run this high or one of these highs here? And then plugs down
41 00:09:05 --> 00:09:16 there? Maybe? I don't know. I don't know that. So what I like to do is I like to teach, the students will look at a five and 15 minute timeframe. I know this is
42 00:09:16 --> 00:09:26 five minutes, but we'll get to the 15 in a second to outline where the clear liquidities are above old highs or relative equal highs or below lows or
43 00:09:26 --> 00:09:37 relative equal lows. And what inefficiencies exist above the market price right now market price is at 4294. So below it. It's this inefficiency on the five
44 00:09:37 --> 00:09:48 minute chart above this high and this high here. Why this one, because we have an inefficiency we traded up into and broke lower. It might want to revisit this
45 00:09:48 --> 00:09:56 inefficiency here one more time just below that and not take that high because we've already done a damage by going above the relative equal highs that I've
46 00:09:56 --> 00:10:08 highlighted here at 43 or four even more And that is on the basis of all these highs here. But admittedly, it's a little too shallow for my liking. So let's
47 00:10:08 --> 00:10:18 play devil's advocate advocate for a moment, say we do drop down here, it would not be completely out of the ordinary for us this area to them rally go deeper
48 00:10:18 --> 00:10:29 than this high to take the liquid because there's a lot of time to leave this many highs there. And just the bump at that little bit. And the bump it just the
49 00:10:29 --> 00:10:41 head of nonfarm payroll, to me is a little suspect. So using this idea, if we run leave this inefficiency open, and we start running it Non Farm Payroll
50 00:10:41 --> 00:10:50 numbers release in about 15 minutes or so, if it runs up and takes that high, then I would expect it to drop back down and use this as the draw. But if he
51 00:10:50 --> 00:10:59 dropped down to this first, then I would be watching to see if it wants to make a run back up to knock out there's individuals that were already short. And if
52 00:10:59 --> 00:11:13 it were to do that, then maybe a deeper run below this low and work into this inefficiency right here with this mitigation block. Okay, so I teach to use
53 00:11:13 --> 00:11:23 nonfarm payroll as a case study. And then you watch price action, you do not demo, trade it, you do not live trade it, you don't use it on your funded
54 00:11:23 --> 00:11:33 account challenge, you don't use it to trade your funded account, you don't do it with your brand new live funds in your broker account, okay, you don't do
55 00:11:33 --> 00:11:46 those things. This is a day where all the rules go out the window. Okay, so it's literally like casino time, it's a gambling session. And because of that, remove
56 00:11:46 --> 00:11:53 any necessity for you to concern yourself with the outcome in terms of a monetary reward or loss. If you take the money out of it, it's a wonderful
57 00:11:53 --> 00:12:05 opportunity to study what price is doing. It's, it's a case study in psychology, who's in the market right now overnight, from London, that it's the lungs. So,
58 00:12:06 --> 00:12:16 gun to my head, I think we dropped down to stop them out because they trailed their stop loss here. Then it rallies up and goes a little bit higher here. And
59 00:12:16 --> 00:12:21 then they're going to regret that they're gonna chase that as a breakout, then they rake them across the coals and take out this low and trade into the
60 00:12:21 --> 00:12:33 inefficiency in that mitigation block. That's my gun in my head, I'm willing to be proven wrong today. I hope I am wrong. Because it'll solidify why I tell you,
61 00:12:33 --> 00:12:42 and explain to you why I'm not out here every single time Non Farm Payroll comes out there in trading with my wife count doing it. Because it's probability of
62 00:12:42 --> 00:12:50 hurting me, me being incorrect me reading it wrong. Or then just simply going in there and cleaning everybody's clock and mind would be included if I was
63 00:12:50 --> 00:13:02 participating in it. And doesn't pay not to do anything at all. So it's not worth it for me to try to risk real money to do something, when I already know
64 00:13:02 --> 00:13:12 the probabilities are shifted outside of my favor. And that's all I'm suggesting to you. Now, after 10 o'clock, everything resumes the way it is normally, we're
65 00:13:12 --> 00:13:17 back in a normal market condition where you could look for silver bullets and whatnot, you can do the same thing at two o'clock to three o'clock. So it's not
66 00:13:17 --> 00:13:25 me trying to tell you don't trade or Non Farm Payroll Fridays at all. When I say don't trade Non Farm Payroll, I'm saying don't trade Non Farm Payroll between
67 00:13:25 --> 00:13:34 eight o'clock and 930. At the opening bell, you can resume doing whatever you normally would do. So that way hopefully I've kind of like clean the air about
68 00:13:34 --> 00:13:36 that whole business. I'm gonna jump over to the NASDAQ.
69 00:13:42 --> 00:13:54 Okay, and this is the new week opening gap. We traded just a little shy of consequent approaching which is the midpoint of that. And don't see the
70 00:13:54 --> 00:14:15 equivalent for the inefficiency for the ES in this NASDAQ. So this one's a little bit more tricky as a read. same premise here from London. We've rallied
71 00:14:15 --> 00:14:34 we've taken by side. It didn't take that high here. So that's something of my interest for today. Sell sides here. I would expect them to run on that this
72 00:14:34 --> 00:14:45 morning. Do they take it down first to knock out and everyone that's trailed their stop loss it is held their position longer. And they're just waiting this
73 00:14:45 --> 00:14:53 out, hoping that it's going to resume higher. It can come down, take those Long's out and they would be able to I guess keep whatever they've accumulated
74 00:14:53 --> 00:15:03 in here. overzealous price action would be a complete rundown. Taking out the low From London, if I was making the market, that's what I would do, I would
75 00:15:03 --> 00:15:12 come all against them and then send it back up to knock out this high here and enclose between the high bid forms once taking this high out, and the low that
76 00:15:12 --> 00:15:22 is formed after taking this low out and in trade in the upper 60% every, you know, between 50 to 60% of the daily range and leave the close right there. And
77 00:15:22 --> 00:15:38 that's how I closed the week. Okay. I think that's about it. Yeah, the highest essentially consequent encroachment to have the new week opening gap. A new
78 00:15:38 --> 00:15:43 exhibiting gap is simply where we settled on Friday. And when we opened up on Sunday
79 00:15:53 --> 00:16:02 you're probably going to hear my stomach because I'm fasted right now in my laptop is sitting right here with me close to the microphone so it's probably
80 00:16:02 --> 00:16:12 gonna pick that up now notice the consequent encouragement level which is midpoint of the inefficiency that's defined as the new week opening gap that to
81 00:16:12 --> 00:16:22 me is a level that will be interesting because it's just above this swing high Okay, so that's swing high has by side it need not trade above this it can I
82 00:16:22 --> 00:16:29 mean, I could be completely wrong and it just shoots straight up there and blows out to new week opening gap high and now the upside see that's the reason why I
83 00:16:29 --> 00:16:39 don't trade on Non Farm Payroll that's what I'm trying to get to today. There's like I was trying to outline yesterday I want to yesterday's premise and
84 00:16:39 --> 00:16:53 suggestion I want it to be wrong because it's very frustrating for me to try to keep telling you avoid something because of concern for risk and then not seeing
85 00:16:53 --> 00:17:06 the things I suggest fail so it's a little bit of a conundrum as a mentor I want to show you why you should risk nothing on these days and then when I suggest
86 00:17:06 --> 00:17:17 something should happen with the expectation I'm probably gonna be wrong I fail at being wrong I need it to either be this time or hopefully by November and
87 00:17:17 --> 00:17:24 that way I can leave you with an example Santa Fe C ICT even tried and he didn't do it right that day and that's good that's a good thing it's a good thing to
88 00:17:24 --> 00:17:27 see that happen it's reassuring
89 00:17:32 --> 00:17:35 let me let me highlight that level actually before I take it away
90 00:18:03 --> 00:18:16 all right and is new week of it and GAP consequent encouragement see that all right
91 00:18:24 --> 00:18:41 okay nine minutes so the fireworks and below this low here if you ever noticed there's a little inefficiency right there. This is a fair value gap. And
92 00:18:41 --> 00:18:50 specifically it is a bias out of balance on efficiency it means it's a busy there
93 00:18:55 --> 00:18:56 come on
94 00:19:17 --> 00:19:32 okay, and then we'll look at the consequent curtailment of that inefficiency as well. I'll highlight that 32 Even
95 00:19:41 --> 00:19:41 Steve
96 00:19:54 --> 00:19:57 Okay, so sell sign is below here.
97 00:20:20 --> 00:20:31 And collectively by side is layered from this high here, which I'm not going to draw a line on because I want to keep the chart clean. So biceps above here to
98 00:20:31 --> 00:20:32 here
99 00:20:39 --> 00:20:43 is talking top left
100 00:20:50 --> 00:21:03 and back into midpoint of the new week opening gap. Okay. And I have a moment I can do it. And so you're saying what is the new week opening gap? Because you
101 00:21:03 --> 00:21:13 haven't looked at the videos haven't studied long enough. And maybe you just want everything done for you. This, here's where we settled on Friday. That's
102 00:21:13 --> 00:21:22 the closing price. So that makes the new weak opening gap low. And where we opened was higher than where we settled on Friday. So that makes it the higher
103 00:21:22 --> 00:21:31 level meaning that the new week opening gap high is this, which is the opening price at the beginning of the new week on Sunday at six o'clock. Okay, so that
104 00:21:31 --> 00:21:42 level in this level makes the new weak opening gap. And you can see how the market is respected that level, or these levels rather, all week. Okay, and
105 00:21:42 --> 00:21:50 nobody talks about that stuff. Everybody knows about a gap. But once it fills it, they forget it. And the algorithm doesn't forget it, it refers back to it
106 00:21:50 --> 00:22:02 throughout the the week. It's not the same thing as a new day opening gap, which is the difference between where we settle on Friday at five o'clock, and then
107 00:22:02 --> 00:22:13 reopen at 6pm. That's New Day opening. And it's not to be confused with the opening range gap. Okay, which is where we have the relationship between the
108 00:22:14 --> 00:22:25 regular trading hours, which is here we have the 14,008 57 and three quarters level. Okay, I'm gonna have that highlighted there.
109 00:22:30 --> 00:22:48 And then you use this, I mentioned this yesterday in a reveal opening range. And we started off with settlement. This is the word it's going to change in a
110 00:22:48 --> 00:23:08 moment when we find out in relationship to where market prices. And I'll make it nice contrast where it stands out. Now we go back from regular trading hours to
111 00:23:08 --> 00:23:20 electronic trading hours. And we're above it. So this means that this is the opening range gap low because it's below it. So you change settlement to low.
112 00:23:24 --> 00:23:35 Okay, just that quick, it's easy. I do this every single day. That's the routine I go through. Now I'm annotating them on my chart because I want you to see what
113 00:23:35 --> 00:23:43 I'm referring to. So that way you can watch price when it gyrating either blows through these levels or respect. So between now and nine o'clock, I'm going to
114 00:23:43 --> 00:23:51 be with you till nine o'clock. But at nine o'clock, I'm going to kill the live stream. And I'm going to reason my normal every morning practice of watching my
115 00:23:51 --> 00:24:01 favorite live streamers and looking at the sentiment that their Chatwin has offered me. I don't have these levels on my chart when I'm trading. And it's
116 00:24:01 --> 00:24:13 just for you to be able to see it visually represented, I write these actual levels down and just by their labels here. This is what I have on a notepad.
117 00:24:13 --> 00:24:26 Okay, these are the simple little you buy them in bulk, like BJs or Sam's Club. That little yellow group has a very small ones. And I write down key levels for
118 00:24:26 --> 00:24:34 the markets that I'm watching. And the levels are the very levels that's being highlighted here. And the description of what those levels are are annotated,
119 00:24:34 --> 00:24:44 just as I show you here on my chart. I do not have them on my chart. I don't want them on my chart because I want to have a clean canvas. So when I'm
120 00:24:44 --> 00:24:55 watching price, I might not see something because my attention is diverted to a level of annotated. Okay. So if I had those levels in mind as it's approaching
121 00:24:55 --> 00:25:03 those levels, I'm aware of them. You know, I'm cognizant of these levels. Me anytime before I sit down in the morning session, because there's something
122 00:25:03 --> 00:25:11 that's either going to be carried over from the London session that I've looked at, either was trading or watching or maybe woke up in the middle of the
123 00:25:11 --> 00:25:21 morning, if I wasn't all night long, and then see something that I like, Okay, what level is, is important, I don't need to annotate this low here, even though
124 00:25:21 --> 00:25:30 it's the London low because it's inside of this inefficiency. And it's just above consequent curtailment of the inefficiency. Okay, so everything in the
125 00:25:30 --> 00:25:42 chart here is all I use. I don't have any kind of other secret annotations, I'm not looking at any kind of indicators. It really is just reading price. Now
126 00:25:42 --> 00:25:49 these are the key levels when you get this off, this is driving me nuts. That's the little fairway gap I was throwing in the live stream yesterday couldn't hear
127 00:25:49 --> 00:26:00 me It used it to run up into the fairway get this out of the short outline and give a very clear depiction of in the tweet before it was delivered. Alright, so
128 00:26:00 --> 00:26:09 we have a minute and a half, and then the fireworks and regret will come into the marketplace. And those that have offered themselves up on the altar of the
129 00:26:09 --> 00:26:12 randomness, gods, they will be flayed.
130 00:26:18 --> 00:26:26 So we sit and we watch, we want to see, how does it perform? What does it reach for does it reach for that buyside first, if it does, then we'll be looking for
131 00:26:26 --> 00:26:37 the London low to be drawn to, not right away. But over the course of the morning going into like 11 o'clock, that would be scenario one. If it drops down
132 00:26:37 --> 00:26:48 and takes the sell side and returns back to the opening range gap low, which is most likely, the gun in my head is probably going to do that first. Then if it
133 00:26:48 --> 00:26:54 doesn't just stop there, then it'll run for the buy side. And then I'll be interested, see if it wants to come back down for that more than well. But
134 00:26:54 --> 00:27:04 ultimately, whatever Hi, we form between now and 10 o'clock. And whatever low we form, I think we're going to close in about 50% Maybe just above the 50%.
135 00:27:04 --> 00:27:11 Because I'm not confident that they're going to break that daily consolidation range that they have on the daily chart for NG they might need to keep it like
136 00:27:11 --> 00:27:23 this over the weekend. And then maybe start working with it next week. Whereas we already saw the ES trade lower. NASDAQ's showing a reluctance to do that. I
137 00:27:23 --> 00:27:34 think it'll eventually bend the knee and do what yes is done. But it's being a little unruly right now. So eight seconds, and then watch the fireworks
138 00:27:40 --> 00:27:55 There we go. overshot. The inefficiency went past the opening range gap. Hello. More chart real estate here, hold on. Back down into this
139 00:28:03 --> 00:28:16 okay. Now, what are the key off of and what was I talking about the likelihood it would reach for the lower side first. Obviously, this is way beyond what I
140 00:28:16 --> 00:28:28 was expecting. But we are working off of that new weak opening gap below. That is that. So we worked on that level. Otherwise, you would have never known it
141 00:28:28 --> 00:28:41 would have no understanding of why this did that. And it overshot on the downside. So because of this, I would be more inclined to see does it have a
142 00:28:41 --> 00:28:50 willingness to get back up into touch the low of this inefficiency, because this is a sudden run for this liquidity right down here. And the old inefficiency
143 00:28:53 --> 00:29:07 over here. Now imagine for a moment that you were trying to go long today. How forgiving would it be? Even if you had your stop loss, it would literally have
144 00:29:07 --> 00:29:20 eviscerated you. Like that's too fast. And you can be so wrong. So quickly. Your account will be roasted. So it's real important to see how if you are wrong on
145 00:29:20 --> 00:29:34 this day, if you're wrong on this very report, it can undo you. And if you're lucky and you weren't short, that type of move is not skill that's falsely
146 00:29:34 --> 00:29:41 attributed a skill if you take it and say okay, I made money on that. Because it's a gamble. You don't know if it wasn't gonna do this very thing on the
147 00:29:41 --> 00:29:53 upside. I don't know that you won't know that. So it's important that you understand that that inherent risk is always there. It should be respected. You
148 00:29:53 --> 00:30:01 should not look at this and say yeah, I'm gonna do 15 contracts on my from that account. And this is the this is the I'm gonna do it, because it's going to be
149 00:30:01 --> 00:30:19 the day that you blow it. Let's take a quick look over ES. I hope gold went down to my objective. I take a look at that real quick. Yes, tanked. Let's see if we
150 00:30:19 --> 00:30:35 got our four Grand Slam for the week, with ICT running up at low, I don't think we got there yet. It's almost there 1804. That was where we're looking for. It's
151 00:30:35 --> 00:30:48 good to 30 minute time frame. It's kind of hoping people have already done it. But it still might get there today. Who knows? I'm not a gold trader. But I gave
152 00:30:48 --> 00:31:09 you this earlier in the week. Taking that low out either. Let me add that not that I want to short my objective because I think this is still potential that
153 00:31:09 --> 00:31:18 over here, that's the low I like. But if he doesn't want to take that this week, he could probably sweet this one this morning. At the very minimum
154 00:31:24 --> 00:31:25 quick look at Euro
155 00:31:32 --> 00:31:40 sell side sell clean that is there. It's POUND DOLLAR.
156 00:31:46 --> 00:31:58 The same thing in here. We have cells out there with inefficiency to the left and a breaker. So be mindful on this one. If we see continuation on the
157 00:31:58 --> 00:32:06 downside, those are your levels per pound dollar. And let's go back to N q
158 00:32:13 --> 00:32:28 this is where I think we'll reach for today. And then digging into that daily. Let's go to the daily chart real quick. This is that inefficiency that's
159 00:32:28 --> 00:32:38 remaining. We dug into it. Here. We have relatively equal lows. I think we'll try to gravitate towards that. If it doesn't do it today. As long as we don't
160 00:32:38 --> 00:32:47 trade above today's intraday high. And we don't make a higher high. Then I'm going to go into the weekend expecting Sunday, Monday Tuesday that we're going
161 00:32:47 --> 00:32:58 to be digging into this deeper into next week. So as long as we don't trade above today's intraday high. We're rolling into this down here, that's how I
162 00:32:58 --> 00:33:08 would internalize it. Okay. So that way, it's me. cosigning telling you what I think. Now, if you look at what this hourly chart is showing you, we have this
163 00:33:08 --> 00:33:17 fair value gap, which was yesterday's. audibly, I said it could trade down here. But if I was in a trade yesterday, I wouldn't be holding for that. Now because
164 00:33:17 --> 00:33:25 it went down into it reacted off of it. Now we've went through it. So what does that make this here? A potential inversion Fairbury gap, so it can reverse and
165 00:33:25 --> 00:33:37 retrace right back up into this this morning. I'd like to see it not take these lows out before 930. Okay, so here's narrative. I don't want to see these lows
166 00:33:37 --> 00:33:51 taken out yet. And I don't want to see a trade above this and find an attempt to find support at it. I want to see it stable low at this very gap and then trade
167 00:33:51 --> 00:34:05 up into it at say 920 to 945 in that area in terms of time, then I would expect it to roll over and reach for the sell side with that. Okay, so it's very
168 00:34:05 --> 00:34:17 specific what it is outlined. If it were to do that, I probably would be taking a trade I won't be with you live at nine o'clock. But that will be something I
169 00:34:17 --> 00:34:29 would be interested in seeing does it give me the the order flow to support that idea. It doesn't support it if we go back above this fair value gap before 930
170 00:34:29 --> 00:34:37 opening bell and we start tapping against it as support and if it starts respecting it and trading up a little bit. I'm going to sit on my hands and then
171 00:34:37 --> 00:34:54 wait till 10 o'clock to see what it wants to do. Okay, but back into a one minute chart. Okay, now, look at that, folks. Do you want to honestly risk your
172 00:34:54 --> 00:35:08 account on an event that move that much? Well, this is one candle On a one minute chart, the range high is 14,008 84 and three quarters, and it dropped
173 00:35:08 --> 00:35:30 down to 14,705. It's like 180 handles in one minute, you can weather that. You can weather that with your 15 contracts on your funded account. You're not.
174 00:35:32 --> 00:35:40 You're literally nuts. And this, this is what can happen. Like this is literally what can happen. And I know some of you, because I said something about how I
175 00:35:40 --> 00:35:48 believe it's going to trade down to that opening range gap low and then maybe ended up inefficiency down here. Some of you probably went short, and you caught
176 00:35:48 --> 00:35:58 this big run here. And if you did, you gambled. I'm not going to highfive you and I'll scold you, if you show me that you made money on it today, I don't want
177 00:35:58 --> 00:36:06 to see that. I was hoping I was gonna get it wrong, it would have been so good. If it would have just went straight up after I said, I think it's going to go
178 00:36:06 --> 00:36:15 down like that, that was imperfect for me, they will say, see, this is why I don't do it. But again, here it is going towards the initial draw. So it kinda
179 00:36:15 --> 00:36:24 like it makes it hard for me to justify in some of your eyes, because you don't see it failing, you see it? Well, he he just said I was gonna happen. And it
180 00:36:24 --> 00:36:33 did. Now that's not what I want you to think I want you to think that this should be respected. And if there's any one particular fear that you should
181 00:36:33 --> 00:36:42 have, you should fear the unknown around days like this, because look how exaggerated it can be. And you don't know what they're gonna do. Because they
182 00:36:42 --> 00:36:54 have control, they want to be able to manipulate unseat individuals. And we saw overnight, everybody was buying it up on the one that's I felt that Manila would
183 00:36:54 --> 00:37:14 be a target. And they went right through that, like nothing like it wasn't even a factor. Boom, took out yesterday's low, boom, it's over. So anyway, this was a
184 00:37:14 --> 00:37:23 whole lot more movement than I was wanting to see. Not so much wanting to see but expecting to see it say it that way, which is a classic trait of Non Farm
185 00:37:23 --> 00:37:32 Payroll, it's very hard for me to dial in and have every aspect that I like to look for on any given day that
186 00:37:38 --> 00:37:50 that prevents me from wanting to put real risk on and some of you were looking at your calculator right now and saying if I would have went short at 14,008 89
187 00:37:51 --> 00:38:02 Right before ether if I just would have went short there I could have paid all those losing trades back to myself I could have got funded today don't do that.
188 00:38:02 --> 00:38:03 Don't do that
189 00:38:30 --> 00:38:31 sorry, you gotta plug this in
190 00:38:38 --> 00:38:43 take a look at the Dow similar
191 00:38:50 --> 00:39:06 this is a very large displacement to the downside. It's Friday and it's Non Farm Payroll. Generally, I think of Non Farm Payroll is like a two stage event, like
192 00:39:06 --> 00:39:17 I teach FOMC is so at two o'clock you have one direction, and then at 230. It does the opposite of whatever two o'clock move was. Okay. Generally that's the
193 00:39:17 --> 00:39:28 flavor for nonfarm payroll price delivery. Usually the event is 830. They jam at one direction and then they start working towards the opposite direction
194 00:39:29 --> 00:39:42 throughout the day. It's not that then it's very little retracement, and then sudden you continuation of whatever direction it made at 830 into 930s. opening
195 00:39:42 --> 00:39:49 bell. It's a small little retracement of whatever move that was and then it really accelerates again throughout the morning. If it doesn't do either one of
196 00:39:49 --> 00:39:57 those things, it's going to consolidate. And obviously I don't think consolidations a factor for today because it's made a huge run. That's going to
197 00:39:57 --> 00:40:09 have a lot of people wanting to be a participant in now. So the classic depiction would be this, okay, they see it's traded lower a lot. And people are
198 00:40:09 --> 00:40:16 waking up, they're looking at the market thinking, wow, this thing's really tanked. And they want to see it go up a little bit more, they want to see their
199 00:40:16 --> 00:40:30 little retracement so they can sell short. It might not get that high up into this inefficiency that was created here in one minute. They may bump this high,
200 00:40:31 --> 00:40:40 or they may not because they technically have already did this candles high here. So we may not see a trade above this high. Whereas normally, that'd be
201 00:40:40 --> 00:40:51 something I'd be expecting. So because Because of this, it may just consolidate leaving this high in play, and then rotate below this low here and just keep
202 00:40:51 --> 00:41:03 making lower, deeper retracements. But not coming back above here. And just make it very hard for people to trust being short. And not allowing anyone to capture
203 00:41:03 --> 00:41:17 any kind of long. So basically, the entire range was done in three minutes. For the day, I think which makes it very difficult to work with.
204 00:41:25 --> 00:41:42 Excuse me, I said he gets tired when He doesn't sleep he does. So that was a very animated delivery on payroll. I hope, you know, like I hope very much that
205 00:41:43 --> 00:41:54 folks that have been looking at these days thinking wow, you know, I want to trade them. I want you to really appreciate how fast this thing just moved. And
206 00:41:54 --> 00:42:02 you may not have real time data, and you're looking at this and you're delayed is your data is delayed. I don't know how long the delay is on trading view.
207 00:42:02 --> 00:42:10 Like if you don't pay for real time. I don't know what the actual delay is. Or if it's 10 minutes, or 15 or 20. I don't know. But I know it's delayed. The
208 00:42:10 --> 00:42:22 minimum is 10 minutes, I knew that. But your charts not going to show this, you know, when mine was doing it if you don't have real time data. And if you're not
209 00:42:22 --> 00:42:34 expecting a social move, if you're not expecting the level of volatility and speed, the magnitude and viciousness of it, it can really hurt you fast. Even if
210 00:42:34 --> 00:42:43 you're trading with the smallest of leverage. And that's, it's a shocking thing. And it'll completely scar you and you don't want to be the get into the market
211 00:42:43 --> 00:42:51 again, because it's moved that quick. And what will happen is because of your infancy as a trader and your inexperience you'll think every time you get into
212 00:42:51 --> 00:43:01 the next trade, it's going to do this type of move against you. And that's what I mean when I say scar tissue when you do things that are against the grain I
213 00:43:01 --> 00:43:08 tell you not to do certain things and you still do it knowing that I told you that this is going to probably be the outcome and it's going to cause you to
214 00:43:08 --> 00:43:17 second guess yourself have doubts. second guess your model second guess the concepts second guess your ability to trade using them profitably that will
215 00:43:17 --> 00:43:27 cause you mental scar tissue. And every trade you're going into you will anticipate the worst case scenario like this like that's how it's going to run
216 00:43:27 --> 00:43:37 towards your stop or it's going to act like that because you're not using a star which it should do that to you. If you don't use a stop loss you should expect
217 00:43:37 --> 00:43:48 it to do that. That's a that's a fear that's worth holding on to because it'll keep you from not implementing not not implementing a stoploss when you should
218 00:43:48 --> 00:43:57 always have one so we've seen it trade up into the body of this close candle the only one since the Blu Ray 830
219 00:44:07 --> 00:44:09 That Scout location herder
220 00:44:15 --> 00:44:18 and it's personal real estate one here
221 00:44:25 --> 00:44:27 to another that show up on a moment
222 00:44:42 --> 00:44:59 yes senior moment ICT oh man ICT Alright, let's go to one that chart on this one. Okay, similar thing here. It's really up into the body up close candle
223 00:44:59 --> 00:45:00 where After.
224 00:45:06 --> 00:45:20 And with more real estate on, just think down here. Okay, that's it, I'm looking for that this morning. Now if it rushes down here before 930, that just makes it
225 00:45:20 --> 00:45:30 very difficult. Very, it makes it very difficult because that means it's already in a hurry, it's in a quick rush to get there. And that reduces the likelihood
226 00:45:30 --> 00:45:44 of probability being in favor of a solid low risk sell at the time of the opening bell, or shortly after going into 10 o'clock. So in layman's terms, and
227 00:45:44 --> 00:45:53 in the simplest format, and explaining it, I would like for it to not trade below the top of that inefficiency on a daily chart that we haven't traded into
228 00:45:53 --> 00:46:06 yet. I would like to see it stay hovering like this. And then 930, break a little bit, create an imbalance. And then between 945 and 10 give a fair value
229 00:46:06 --> 00:46:15 gap that can be used as a shorting opportunity, and then look for it to gravitate towards this inefficiency. And then how far we dig into that. Before
230 00:46:15 --> 00:46:24 we close the session for the weekend, the day, the remains to be seen. But that's how I would anticipate going forward from where we're at right now.
231 00:46:35 --> 00:46:37 Good ol new week opening gap
232 00:46:43 --> 00:46:44 in your books.
233 00:47:28 --> 00:47:40 Awfully heavy now, someone you may be asking you, because you probably looked at the number, how many jobs? What was the number that was expected? I couldn't
234 00:47:40 --> 00:47:50 tell you the same oh my goodness, I don't care. When I look at these reports, I'm anticipating the level of volatility that is above and beyond what is a
235 00:47:50 --> 00:48:00 normal price delivery in volatility for a normal trading day. And I don't ever go back to an asset and the day either like I'm not interested, I could care
236 00:48:00 --> 00:48:12 less about that data. Because that data is all fake. It's all garbage. The people that you are in positions of information. They already know all that
237 00:48:12 --> 00:48:20 data. And they're the ones that are feeding that rally up in overnight. That's the smart money they're selling into that rally. And now they're sitting on
238 00:48:20 --> 00:48:31 heavy winds. And they'll start taking some of those gains as we get below this low here. That's their first opportunity to start scaling out. And they're
239 00:48:31 --> 00:48:42 scaling out now they're taking some not all some of the gains off. And that's what I teach is running down equity. So more bearish every time it creates a new
240 00:48:42 --> 00:48:52 low and it retraces off that low every time it digs down below that low or any subsequent low that forms you treat that as an opportunity to take something off
241 00:49:27 --> 00:49:34 so I get a feel for why that little sheep there because I was like I don't remember putting a fair value gap or anything highlighted at that price level.
242 00:49:34 --> 00:49:36 It's just the overlap between those two rectangles.
243 00:49:49 --> 00:49:54 Okay, heaviness is still here. Again, we're looking forward to the trade down into
244 00:50:07 --> 00:50:12 This is the relative lows on the daily chart
245 00:50:19 --> 00:50:20 will change the tour
246 00:50:40 --> 00:50:48 so by having a well being that we've already swept below it on the daily chart this level here, I'd want to see it accelerate through this level once you get
247 00:50:48 --> 00:51:02 down to it, and then rush into the daily inefficiency, it's shaded in blue. And it's a lot of empty space down there. All through here. So it could accelerate.
248 00:51:04 --> 00:51:17 Pretty nice in the afternoon, if it wants to continue. You know, I think that we can get what you want to do your quadrants on. So from the high and the low that
249 00:51:17 --> 00:51:26 you drop your fit on it, and get your upper 25% to equilibrium or not equaling the consequent question, which is the halfway point of it in the lower quadrant
250 00:51:26 --> 00:51:27 in the low.
251 00:51:32 --> 00:51:43 There's really nothing bullish about stocks. indices are reflecting what everybody that has any common sense knows that all these stocks are at multiples
252 00:51:43 --> 00:51:57 that are unwarranted. And there's a lot of big money that is leaving risk, because they know what's coming. Now I was talking about that last summer,
253 00:51:57 --> 00:52:05 you're about to see a lot of it start to begin, we're in the month for it to really start showing the signs of real trouble for all of us.
254 00:52:24 --> 00:52:25 Let's take a look at gold.
255 00:52:30 --> 00:52:33 Still didn't get down got real close to it though.
256 00:52:40 --> 00:52:51 Can I hear so that we're close to it, it could still run up into this inefficiency a little bit and then rotate lower. That's something that could
257 00:52:51 --> 00:53:05 happen today. Again, I'm not suggesting you should treat it, I don't treat gold. It's very, very infrequently new, reviewed by me. Because it's a market, it's
258 00:53:05 --> 00:53:22 highly manipulated. A lot of the large firms have been fined for spoofing in this market more than any other market. Have you know that that is a
259 00:53:22 --> 00:53:31 characteristic of that market. And honestly, I've already said this before gold should be trading at $25,000. Not this price. It's so absolutely manipulated.
260 00:53:31 --> 00:53:40 And they're keeping it that way. Because once all central bank digital currencies are in play, and we'll be seeing them very, very soon. They will be
261 00:53:41 --> 00:53:50 saying that their currencies are backed by gold like the BRICS nation. They're trying to instill this replacement for the dollar. And we've never really been
262 00:53:50 --> 00:54:02 challenged before as the global reserve currency, the greenback since it's been the reserve currency, nothing's been able to rival it. But now there's this
263 00:54:02 --> 00:54:12 coalition of very powerful nations that are coming together. And they're building this anti dollar D dollarization. campaign to move away from the
264 00:54:12 --> 00:54:28 greenback and their currency is going to be backed by gold in ours is backed by vapor. The wind, okay, literally hot air, it's got nothing behind it. So once
265 00:54:28 --> 00:54:41 that's established, and it's a real thing, you're going to see gold go vertical, it's going to rush to get to its to to our value. That is keeping it
266 00:54:41 --> 00:54:50 artificially suppressed as a result of anything I'm missing here. So at some point, there will be a time where I will be interested in trading it but right
267 00:54:50 --> 00:54:59 now I'm not so much interested in because since I know that's the likely scenario what we're anticipating unfolding. I think that they'll sink, Gold Bug
268 00:55:00 --> 00:55:09 aggressively scare everybody from the buy it'll get the discount and dollar will be higher as a result and then the real undermining of the dollar will happen
269 00:55:09 --> 00:55:21 when gold starts going parabolic and the dollar crashes but I don't think we're there yet yes
270 00:55:35 --> 00:55:47 two minutes I'm gonna escape. Get my morning prepared, spend with my youngest and review price for him. It's not going to be anything all that exciting. So
271 00:55:47 --> 00:55:56 don't think like oh, Mattis Please sit in. It's nothing like it's boring like me sitting here explaining how this is a day. You don't want to be trading. This is
272 00:55:56 --> 00:56:05 the reason why everything I've already said to you. But he's, he's sleeping in today. So I have to wake him up and get him ready. So you can sit with me at 930
273 00:56:07 --> 00:56:20 and that's gonna be it for today. So I'm not sure if you get anything out of this. If you have been jarred and startled by the the veracity of how fast this
274 00:56:20 --> 00:56:30 thing moved this morning. Good. That's exactly what you should feel. You should not feel enticed the overleveraged on a day like this because if you're wrong,
275 00:56:32 --> 00:56:40 you absolutely will have your ass handed to you. And you don't want to give the market an invitation to do that because it will absolutely do it and take more
276 00:56:40 --> 00:56:48 ass than you have. So hopefully you found something insightful. And I'll talk to you next time. Enjoy your weekend. Be safe.