ICT YT - 2023-10-05 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Market Commentary and Review October 04 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-10-16 19:17
Outline
00:42 - The dollar index with technical analysis.
- ICT discusses the dollar index weekly chart, highlighting an imbalance and potential drop to a minimum level.
03:25 - Trading strategies for non-farm payroll weeks.
- ICT states that he doesn't have a mechanism to forecast Sunday opening prices, and he's not willing to take positions over the weekend due to gap risk.
- ICT mentions that he's taken only a few trades this year, and he prefers to stay in and out of positions with surgical strikes, rarely holding them overnight.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of responsible trading, particularly during Non Farm Payroll weeks, when market volatility can be challenging for new traders.
- ICT advises against attempting to trade Non Farm Payroll days without proper experience and skillset, as it can lead to difficulty in maintaining a one-sided market position.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of independent thinking and growing past training wheels in trading.
10:26 - Sentiment analysis in financial markets.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of sentiment analysis in market analysis, particularly on weekends when most people are reading financial news and forming opinions.
- ICT uses social media and financial news sources to gauge sentiment and identify trends in the market.
13:34 - Using live streamers for market sentiment analysis.
- ICT analyzes mainstream media sources like Barron's and Yahoo Finance to gain insights on market sentiment.
- ICT spends an hour on weekends reviewing these sources to form opinions on the market's likely perception for the upcoming week.
- ICT analyzes live streamers' chat windows to gauge sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities.
- ICT expects the market to continue going up, aiming for the low of the weekly imbalance at 107.274.
19:16 - Dollar's value and its impact on global markets.
- ICT believes the dollar will continue to be the global reserve currency, despite the clown circus in DC, due to its reputation for stability and trustworthiness.
- Interest rate hikes by the Fed will inspire foreign investors to repatriate their dollars, leading to a teeter-totter effect between buying and selling pressure on foreign currencies, with the dollar likely to rise and foreign currencies to fall.
22:21 - Trading strategies for Non Farm Payroll week.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of economic calendars in trading, particularly during Non Farm Payroll weeks.
- ICT predicts a potential choppy period in the market between Monday and Wednesday morning session, with best trading setups on those days.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of having established protocols or processes in place before trading, rather than winging it or relying on gut feelings.
- ICT believes that the highest probability trades occur during the week, particularly on Monday through Wednesday, due to the uncertainty surrounding nonfarm payroll and the potential for a real price run.
28:34 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- ICT warns new traders against overconfidence and unrealistic expectations.
- ICT: Monday trading is a must during Non Farm Payroll weeks, but wait for obvious sentiment before trading.
- ICT wants to see the daily candle close above 106.38 to avoid a problematic week.
34:29 - Trading strategies and market manipulation.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding market manipulation and intervention, and how it can affect trading outcomes.
- ICT advises against trying to be a "savior" or "Forex Jesus" and instead encourages traders to focus on their own education and development.
37:01 - Trading frequency and high-probability setups.
- ICT identifies a key level on the hourly chart for potential buying opportunities.
- ICT warns of market manipulation during certain days, advising against trading.
- Trading less frequently can lead to a higher hit rate and accuracy, but it may also result in lower commissions and a more balanced life outside of trading.
- Focusing on a smaller number of higher-quality trading setups can help control costs and increase profitability, rather than trying to trade frequently with lower-quality setups.
43:57 - Trading costs and commission taxes.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding commission costs in trading, viewing them as a necessary "tax" for using a brokerage service.
- He shares his personal experience of paying high commission fees in the 90s, using the example of $100 per contract round turn.
- Trader emphasizes importance of managing trade frequency and leverage to minimize costs.
47:38 - Technical analysis and market predictions.
- ICT discusses the importance of creating a separate YouTube channel for trading-related content, as it allows him to inspire and motivate his students without intermingling his personal life.
- ICT mentions that he asked his viewers if they wanted to see daily pre-market and post-market reveals, but the cost of 25,000 likes was too high, so he decided not to proceed with the idea.
- ICT predicts Euro will trade up then down, using imbalances to identify potential trades.
- ICT analyzes the imbalance between the low and high of a candle to identify significant levels for efficient market delivery.
- In a fair value gap, ICT uses the high of the candle's low and the low of the candle's high to determine the significant levels, rather than the quarter levels.
54:47 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT argues that supply and demand zones are vague and not specific to the market's underlying narrative.
- ICT highlights the importance of focusing on higher timeframe analysis to identify smart money perspectives and liquidity inefficiencies.
57:17 - Trading and market analysis.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics and having unrivaled confidence in one's trading abilities.
- ICT teaches a 15-minute trading session using a 32nd or 15-second chart, with the goal of demonstrating the potential for consistent profits.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of focusing on what matters most in trading, rather than getting distracted by unnecessary patterns and indicators.
- ICT encourages listeners to stop resisting and learn to make money through simple, practical methods.
01:03:15 - Trading forex with precision using daily charts.
- ICT identifies precise turning points in the foreign exchange market with high accuracy, despite dealing spreads.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of using lower timeframes for trading, particularly the 1-minute chart, as it provides more setups and reminds traders that everything should be based on the success or failure of these setups.
- ICT highlights the limitations of top-down analysis and the benefits of bottom-up analysis, encouraging traders to focus on the monthly chart for a broader perspective and to avoid getting caught up in neck-breaking speed on lower timeframes.
01:08:44 - Trading strategies and time frame usage.
- ICT discovered the power of using lower timeframes (1-5 min) to mitigate losing trades and build profits in real-time.
- ICT's gradual learning curve involved moving from trading on a daily chart with one contract to using multiple contracts on lower timeframes after discovering their effectiveness.
01:11:37 - Trading, market analysis, and personal growth.
- The speaker advises against buying books, as they have little value and are often misleading.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of patience and doing nothing at times, as this can lead to greater success in trading.
- ICT wants to help his students become independent analysts who can pick and choose their own setups, rather than relying on him or anyone else.
- He is stopping his content creation to focus on preparing his home and getting his affairs in order, as he believes the world is about to get harder for everyone, even the rich.
01:17:00 - Currency market trends and analysis.
- Analyst predicts further upside for US dollar despite Fed rate hikes.
01:19:21 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- ICT: Wants to see if the dollar will continue to go higher, and how to use that information for trading.
- ICT: Willing to take a trade above the recent high, but wants to see if it will go lower before considering a short position.
- ICT: Believes that having a detailed understanding of price action is key to successful trading, and is willing to take a loss on a trade if it means missing a big move.
- ICT expects the E-mini S&P to reach a low around December 23rd, with a potential for a trading below those lows if something kinetic happens between countries.
- ICT highlights a unicorn setup on the 60-minute chart, aiming for a low that was hit beautifully, with the setup repeating multiple times on different timeframes.
01:25:11 - Market analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT says NASDAQ has been reluctant to go lower despite market trade down into inefficiency, due to high resistance and risk in the market.
- ICT wants to see NASDAQ lose more ground before making a move, but Non Farm Payroll week may not provide that opportunity.
- ICT provides analysis and insights on the market, including directional targets and potential problems on Non-Farm Payroll Friday.
- ICT will likely make a live call on Non-Farm Payroll Friday on Twitter, but will not inspire viewers to take a live trade until then.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:42 --> 00:00:56 | ICT: Well hello folks. Give me a second here. I'm checking on Twitter. If you'd be so kind if you're here send me a tweet let me know that you can see and hear |
| 2 | 00:00:59 --> 00:01:03 | everything I'm showing you, you should be seeing the dollar index weekly chart |
| 3 | 00:01:09 --> 00:01:18 | so a five by five would be appreciated. Wick Fisher Thank you. Thank you. Thank you just want to see one more person just give me a five by five just make sure |
| 4 | 00:01:18 --> 00:01:35 | that birthday. Thank you so much. Why should pips Okay? Thank you so much. All right, so I'm going to get through this. You may hear some |
| 5 | 00:01:40 --> 00:01:52 | household noises with my wife and the little girls, the puppies. So you'll have to work through that I don't have the ability to edit it out. Obviously, this is |
| 6 | 00:01:52 --> 00:02:02 | live. So it's gonna save me time. Alright, so if you haven't watched the previous few commentaries or outline pretty much what we're looking at here |
| 7 | 00:02:02 --> 00:02:15 | before the fact you're really not doing yourself a disservice, you're doing a disservice you're learning to your understanding also, you know, it's gonna look |
| 8 | 00:02:15 --> 00:02:25 | like hindsight, it's gonna like cherry picked, it's gonna look like I'm talking about what already happened. From the safety of hindsight 2021, we, in fact, |
| 9 | 00:02:25 --> 00:02:37 | have expected this very thing here. And you're seeing it delivered once more. So the dollar index weekly chart, I mentioned this imbalance here from this candles |
| 10 | 00:02:37 --> 00:02:55 | low at one 10.4 to six to this candles high at 107 Point 27. Four, and then the buy side which will be right near residing right above there. I'm not of the |
| 11 | 00:02:55 --> 00:03:08 | opinion that we're done yet. So I mentioned that we would likely see it dropped to the very minimum of this candles high. So that's what this level was here. So |
| 12 | 00:03:08 --> 00:03:18 | when we get down to the lower timeframes, you'll see that this is that level here. So I'm gonna just make it a little bit more broader set kind of like pops |
| 13 | 00:03:19 --> 00:03:34 | on the chart. So the buy side was the initial draw. And we got that last week. And then this week here, we drove into that. Now, for some of you, and these are |
| 14 | 00:03:34 --> 00:03:47 | the folks that like to just be the argumentative on the weekend, okay, when I do commentary on a Friday, or say it's like on a Saturday when the markets closed, |
| 15 | 00:03:48 --> 00:04:02 | I don't have a skill, I don't have a repertoire, or a mechanism, a gizmo a procedure to be able to forecast what the Sunday opening price is going to be. |
| 16 | 00:04:02 --> 00:04:14 | Okay? Nobody is going to have that. That is always a random function of wherever they want to open the market up. And when I say day, the collective hand that |
| 17 | 00:04:14 --> 00:04:24 | makes these markets, okay, so there's no rhyme or reason as to where we can forecast an opening price, okay, with any consistency, something that could be |
| 18 | 00:04:24 --> 00:04:35 | derived as a model. In the past, I have taken trades, which I won't do any more because of the gap risk that's inherent now, with all the things that's going on |
| 19 | 00:04:35 --> 00:04:45 | around the world, you potential, who are you paying attention to the things around the world that may cause violence in your neck of the woods. So because |
| 20 | 00:04:45 --> 00:04:56 | of that, I'm not willing to have any positions over the weekend. And I'm more inclined to just stay inside of intraday trading. So I'm in and out, take |
| 21 | 00:04:56 --> 00:05:06 | surgical strikes, move to the sidelines, not even trying to trade You know, overnight into the next day, very rarely have I've taken trades this year, where |
| 22 | 00:05:06 --> 00:05:20 | I've held the position over the 5pm settlement to 6pm. Open, I think if I'm going to be able to put it probably on one hand, maybe five or less trades that |
| 23 | 00:05:20 --> 00:05:33 | I've done that this year, I'm speaking in terms of real money demo. So I think that the best way to be doing it right now, because of the inherent gap risk |
| 24 | 00:05:33 --> 00:05:46 | that's always available. These things can pop off at anytime send the market into some kind of crazy directional or whipsaw, and upset a position that would |
| 25 | 00:05:46 --> 00:05:59 | otherwise be profitable. The the low hanging fruit objective, once we cleared this by side, okay, was this level right here? I mentioned this in last week's |
| 26 | 00:05:59 --> 00:06:08 | commentary before we went into Sunday's opening. I made it very clear, I do this every single time I do it on the weekend commentary. I've done it for years and |
| 27 | 00:06:08 --> 00:06:16 | private mentorship, and no, you can't join it. And no, I don't make videos for them anymore. I'm teaching publicly for free. Stop asking though. Send me money, |
| 28 | 00:06:16 --> 00:06:24 | okay. I don't want your money and not selling any mentorships. And if anybody's pretending to be me, selling mentorships or videos, they're scamming you. So |
| 29 | 00:06:24 --> 00:06:35 | don't do that. But invariably, you'll have folks that will say, you know, but you said this, and you said that, in context, I said that because I don't know |
| 30 | 00:06:35 --> 00:06:47 | where we're going to open up for the week, which was here, on Sundays opening. I have to make concession that because we're going into Non Farm Payroll, which is |
| 31 | 00:06:47 --> 00:06:59 | this week, okay. That week, in I've taught this at nauseam, through Twitter spaces. My long term private mentorship, students are aware that we are under a |
| 32 | 00:06:59 --> 00:07:09 | protocol that I've taught them. And it's basically try to make your money. And this is for the folks that like to say I teach not to trade on Mondays. That's |
| 33 | 00:07:09 --> 00:07:19 | not true. Every Non Farm Payroll week, okay, that means the economic number that comes out for non for our Non Farm Payroll numbers or employment data that comes |
| 34 | 00:07:19 --> 00:07:36 | out typically, but not always the first Friday of every month. That week, tends to be a little bit problematic for symmetry, meaning that after Wednesday, after |
| 35 | 00:07:36 --> 00:07:49 | Wednesday, it tends to be a little bit more difficult to have a one sidedness to the marketplace, where you can hold with a great deal. And I'm speaking in terms |
| 36 | 00:07:49 --> 00:08:00 | of the mindset, the skill set the experience level of a new trader. Now, clearly, I can go out there and my mom, well versed veteran students, we can |
| 37 | 00:08:00 --> 00:08:08 | trade these days, okay, we can we can trade a Non Farm Payroll to you've done it, you've seen me do it. I've live streamed, I've called it, it's all there. |
| 38 | 00:08:08 --> 00:08:18 | For people that try to say it's not there, go back and look at it there. I teach with a great deal of responsibility as a mentor. And as an influencer, I don't |
| 39 | 00:08:18 --> 00:08:26 | want anyone that's new, to go out there and thinking they could just walk out here and just try to trade this market in this particular week, every single |
| 40 | 00:08:26 --> 00:08:34 | month, because it's gonna be problematic. You're not you don't have the experience to see through some of the traps that are laid there before you. But |
| 41 | 00:08:34 --> 00:08:44 | over time, you'll learn what they are. And you can look past when I tell the neophytes to brand new students. I say don't trade don't trade. But the folks |
| 42 | 00:08:44 --> 00:08:51 | that have been with me for a while they knew their model. They're going to trade. And they're not going to listen to that because they understand that the |
| 43 | 00:08:51 --> 00:09:00 | mentor in me the teacher, is this guiding the new inexperienced reader or student. If you already know what you're doing, obviously, it goes without |
| 44 | 00:09:00 --> 00:09:06 | saying you're going to do what you're going to do. You're not coming to me for insights. Many times you're probably not even watching my stuff. Until after |
| 45 | 00:09:06 --> 00:09:13 | you've done whatever you're doing and you come back, it's okay, let's see what it said. Not because you're, you're hanging on every word that I'm saying |
| 46 | 00:09:13 --> 00:09:22 | because you have your own model now. And that's how you graduate with me. That's how that's the goal. Okay, there's no there's no tethering for life with me. |
| 47 | 00:09:23 --> 00:09:33 | Okay. There's no commitment to me for life. There's no key send me money. There's subscriptions to me pay my bills, please. That type of stuff. That's not |
| 48 | 00:09:33 --> 00:09:42 | necessary here. Okay, I want you to be an independent minded thinker and trader. And once you get your model you'll grow past these training wheels and these |
| 49 | 00:09:42 --> 00:09:50 | training wheels are given to you to protect you if you're a new student. If you're a new trader, it's the mind you that there are real inherent risks to |
| 50 | 00:09:50 --> 00:10:02 | these markets, especially in the times where I'm telling you stay out. Now I'm speaking to the inexperienced trader so big because we go into that new week, |
| 51 | 00:10:02 --> 00:10:13 | without unknown where the opening price is going to be at. It goes without saying that, obviously, between where we were on the daily chart, even we're |
| 52 | 00:10:13 --> 00:10:24 | dropping down into the daily. The old high we were aiming for two weeks ago, three weeks ago, four weeks ago, five weeks ago, always from back here. We got |
| 53 | 00:10:24 --> 00:10:31 | that. And that created a fair value gap in here. I mentioned that. And I mentioned that the wicked here consequent person that wick which it traded too |
| 54 | 00:10:31 --> 00:10:41 | beautifully. And then reacted off of that. Because of the weekend, and not knowing where we're going to open up at no one has that crystal ball, I don't |
| 55 | 00:10:41 --> 00:10:48 | have that. And I promise you, I know some of you are going to think that I'm trying to hold that back. But if I didn't know it, I'd be showing it off every |
| 56 | 00:10:48 --> 00:10:57 | single week. Okay, like I do everything else I would show you, I promise you, I would have done it. And I would say this is I know this either, I would say |
| 57 | 00:10:57 --> 00:11:05 | here, I can prove I can do it. And I'm not going to teach it to you or I would practice teach to you. Okay, but I don't know. Okay. And I spent a lot of time |
| 58 | 00:11:05 --> 00:11:13 | trying to figure out how to do that. And I just came to the conclusion that that's just one thing I don't need to know. Okay. And while it'd be wonderful |
| 59 | 00:11:13 --> 00:11:23 | for me to have that, and be able to have a conceptual idea on how to replicate that week after week, or at least a great deal of time, you more times than not, |
| 60 | 00:11:23 --> 00:11:34 | I don't have it. Okay, and I don't believe anybody ever will, because of the weekend sentiment. Okay, where we close on Fridays for all markets. |
| 61 | 00:11:35 --> 00:11:44 | You have two days, where everybody sits on the weekend, they read their Barron's. They read their investors business deal, their Wall Street Journal, |
| 62 | 00:11:45 --> 00:11:56 | you know, whatever they're reading, okay, online forums and, and whatnot. And everybody has an opinion. And they're trying to be the person that can say, I |
| 63 | 00:11:56 --> 00:12:06 | told yourself, okay, I told you, so I told you so. And everybody's gonna have different varying opinions to some degree. And it's why it's important for you |
| 64 | 00:12:06 --> 00:12:17 | not to subscribe to people's opinion, but using sentiment as a gauge on what you should be weighing in terms of street money, or what would be considered retail |
| 65 | 00:12:17 --> 00:12:27 | thought. Okay, so when I look at things like Investor's Business Daily, or if I look at Barron's, or Wall Street Journal, and I have subscriptions to those |
| 66 | 00:12:27 --> 00:12:40 | services, I like to see headlines that are very opinionated, very strong opinion headlines. I don't read the articles. I don't really care what they have to say. |
| 67 | 00:12:40 --> 00:12:49 | It's what are they trying to get everyone's attention around? Because that's going to build a sentiment idea that people that buy the services, think that |
| 68 | 00:12:49 --> 00:12:57 | they're doing them a favor by telling them what markets are going to go up? Or where they're going to go down? What stocks to buy, whatnot, and what stocks not |
| 69 | 00:12:57 --> 00:13:09 | to buy, okay. And it's amazing how that herd mentality works. And I go on social media, I read certain individuals that have live streams, I like reading their |
| 70 | 00:13:09 --> 00:13:18 | chat, you seeing what they think collectively. In fact, I go into some of them and encourage the hosts and say, Look, can you can you do a poll, because if I |
| 71 | 00:13:18 --> 00:13:28 | don't get a good read on, or if I show up to the chat, late, because I'm doing other things, I may have missed a sentiment read on based on what they're |
| 72 | 00:13:28 --> 00:13:36 | chatting about. So I'll ask them, and sometimes they don't see it, or sometimes they see and they just ignore it. But it's not a knock against any one of these |
| 73 | 00:13:36 --> 00:13:47 | individual YouTubers. It's just the fact that their, their chat window, their live chat, is just a wonderful resource for real retail sentiment. And they're |
| 74 | 00:13:47 --> 00:13:56 | like a 90% Losers club. And that doesn't mean that they're stupid people just means that they're inexperienced, but they're excited. And I'm tapping into |
| 75 | 00:13:56 --> 00:14:08 | their fevered pitch, they get into the marketplace, around a setting that's live around other people. And it's the same way when you see a bunch of guys watch |
| 76 | 00:14:08 --> 00:14:16 | their favorite football team. They get rowdy, you know? And they're like, yeah, and they can only see their team winning, they can't possibly imagine their team |
| 77 | 00:14:16 --> 00:14:25 | losing. So when they subscribe to an idea that they think it's gonna go up or down. The ones that are on the fence, they join that team mentality, that tribe |
| 78 | 00:14:25 --> 00:14:34 | mentality, which is a weakness as a trader, you don't want to have that. You want to be an apex predator. You want to be on the outside of the herd looking |
| 79 | 00:14:34 --> 00:14:48 | for that week one, and then that's where the pack goes after and takes it down the pack of smart money. On the weekend, I spend about an hour and I go through |
| 80 | 00:14:48 --> 00:15:04 | very static resources, like like I said, Barron's, which is a resource where you can get new opinions, like a Wall Street Journal Investor's Business Daily. |
| 81 | 00:15:05 --> 00:15:22 | Looking at Forex factory.com, I look at general like mainline main mainstream media. And I see if there's any kind of your headlines like Yahoo, okay, and |
| 82 | 00:15:22 --> 00:15:32 | believe me, these people are not mental giants that that write these articles. And that's exactly why I'm tapping into them because they're using their reach |
| 83 | 00:15:32 --> 00:15:43 | as influencers, to try to inspire the investments of the neophyte the people that just don't know. And when you first started out as a trader or an investor, |
| 84 | 00:15:43 --> 00:15:54 | you think that the services are there to help you win. They're not. They're just opinions. Okay? They're just the opinions. So on the weekend, I spend a little |
| 85 | 00:15:54 --> 00:16:05 | bit of time doing that very thing. So what I want to get into beginning before we get to the opening sessions, on Monday morning, I already draw up an opinion |
| 86 | 00:16:05 --> 00:16:16 | about what I think the market is likely to perceive the new coming week. In other words, do retail traders collectively, that I see a lot of ideas or |
| 87 | 00:16:16 --> 00:16:27 | opinions, or hardline people saying there's no way we're definitely going down, I love to see dogmatic sentiment. Sometimes it's not so dogmatic in the |
| 88 | 00:16:27 --> 00:16:39 | resources that's happened to. But whatever it is that I come to, it is completely solidified when I tap into the live streamers that allow for their |
| 89 | 00:16:39 --> 00:16:48 | chat window to be open. So when their little chat things go on that right there nails it down for me, like it's absolutely 90% club, you know, if you feed that, |
| 90 | 00:16:49 --> 00:16:57 | and your technicals are calling for something opposed to what they would be expecting. Now, no, don't take what I'm saying out of context, I'm not saying I |
| 91 | 00:16:57 --> 00:17:04 | don't have an idea that what I think the market is going to do. Before I go into these live streamers, and watch as an audience member, sometimes I'm in there, |
| 92 | 00:17:04 --> 00:17:10 | and they don't even know I'm there. There's a few of them that I've been very public about. There's a couple other ones I don't say anything about because I |
| 93 | 00:17:10 --> 00:17:23 | don't you know, I've already been I guess, a catalyst for trolling. Not that I inspire the trolling, because I tell all my students that go there not to do |
| 94 | 00:17:23 --> 00:17:30 | that. But I think it's other people that want to give our community a bad rap. They go near me pretended they're a supporter of our community and the things I |
| 95 | 00:17:30 --> 00:17:39 | teach and they try to be rude. Well, I do have some of them in my community. They're just like that they're rowdy themselves, but by far and large, I don't |
| 96 | 00:17:39 --> 00:17:53 | try to inspire that. But when we have the sentiment shift, where I wait, it's a few minutes right before the opening bell, where everybody starts joining the |
| 97 | 00:17:53 --> 00:18:03 | bandwagon, whatever the one person in the chat window where the chat room part of the live streams, when they start making their opinions known. And other |
| 98 | 00:18:03 --> 00:18:08 | people Yeah, I think this is going to do I like that idea. Or yeah, it's definitely going to do this, it's going to do that when they start getting very |
| 99 | 00:18:08 --> 00:18:20 | dogmatic. It has to be this way that that drunken football fan mentality, where they cannot see their alma mater, their, their favorite football team, their |
| 100 | 00:18:20 --> 00:18:31 | franchise, whatever it is, is the dolphins, the bears are here in Maryland and the Ravens, which if you get two shits about like, I don't, I don't watch any of |
| 101 | 00:18:31 --> 00:18:43 | that. But they're wonderful studies for human psychology. And what I like to do is, I have a idea, technically, which is what I outlined last week. Okay, so for |
| 102 | 00:18:43 --> 00:18:52 | the Tom, Dick and Harry's that want to go in my comment section or Tweet to me and say, but you said this, you said that, go back and listen, because I said, I |
| 103 | 00:18:52 --> 00:19:02 | don't believe we're done going up in dollar, we could consolidate around here. But ultimately, we're not done, we're going up. And we're gonna trade into the |
| 104 | 00:19:03 --> 00:19:15 | low of that weekly imbalance, which is shaded in pink, specifically aiming for that 107 point 274 level, which is the low of the imbalance on the weekly chart. |
| 105 | 00:19:16 --> 00:19:29 | And that's what we got here. On one on Tuesday, rather. Okay. So the bias was bullish, I love seeing everything over the weekend, indicate that they think |
| 106 | 00:19:30 --> 00:19:42 | collectively as a whole, that it's a reason for things to be topping out or they talk about how the dollar is in trouble. You know, and that's what you're |
| 107 | 00:19:42 --> 00:19:50 | hearing you constantly, the dollar is going to collapse and I believe we eventually will see it collapse. But it can go up while it's collapsing. That's |
| 108 | 00:19:50 --> 00:19:56 | what people want. And then also they have no idea what you're talking about, you know, because they're not looking at differentials, they're not looking at |
| 109 | 00:19:56 --> 00:20:06 | yields interest rates. What has the Fed been doing They've been raising interest rates, right? So if the interest rate market's going up, that's going to inspire |
| 110 | 00:20:06 --> 00:20:19 | what repatriating the dollar were. Okay, let's chase yield, you're raising interest rate, okay, I'll put money into the dollar. They're gonna fade all the |
| 111 | 00:20:19 --> 00:20:30 | other stuff because we have been the global reserve currency until the BRICS nations really unseat us. And I believe that's potentially possible. Dollar |
| 112 | 00:20:30 --> 00:20:43 | still king. Okay. Even though we have a clown circus that's running out of DC, the dollar still the one that everybody would trust over everyone else. We have |
| 113 | 00:20:43 --> 00:20:59 | seen that climb down here. All this run up here is all interest rate driven. It also inspires risk off, which is what I've talked about over the commentaries |
| 114 | 00:20:59 --> 00:21:09 | last week, when we're doing live streams and whatnot, that that's going to pressure foreign currencies lower not buying and selling pressure, the |
| 115 | 00:21:09 --> 00:21:23 | differentials will cause what outflows in Euro outflows and pound outflows and Aussie dollar in inflows into dollar. So that teeter totter effect that it ebb |
| 116 | 00:21:23 --> 00:21:34 | and flow between the buying of dollars and exiting and selling short on foreign currency is the risk off scenario. And you can see, it's pretty one sided right. |
| 117 | 00:21:36 --> 00:21:50 | That is what I told you that we would expect to see the allowance for further declines in the indicee market. That means the s&p 500, the NASDAQ 100, the the |
| 118 | 00:21:50 --> 00:22:04 | Dow Jones and individual stocks. So having an idea about what we use over the weekend, reminding you that there is no crystal ball that I have, or no one else |
| 119 | 00:22:04 --> 00:22:17 | is going to have to know where we're going to open up at, but I like to see specific things on only opening to behave a certain way. Now, if we were to see |
| 120 | 00:22:17 --> 00:22:26 | the opening prices drop down to an hourly chart. I'm gonna try to just be organic about this tonight. I don't want to try to say I'm going to be here too |
| 121 | 00:22:26 --> 00:22:34 | long or too short. I just want to be able to tuck in we'll be as we'll be here as long as we're going to be here. So if you can't watch the whole thing in |
| 122 | 00:22:34 --> 00:22:48 | there's nothing time sensitive here. So you can you can watch it tomorrow at your leisure. Okay. I want to begin to be the imbalance here on the daily chart. |
| 123 | 00:22:49 --> 00:22:57 | That fair value. Let me go back up through quick show you what it was. That's the separation here. I told you about that. Okay, we dropped down into that. And |
| 124 | 00:22:57 --> 00:23:08 | the midpoint of this candles wick. Okay. So consequently, correct me, let me show you. For the folks that have forgotten, don't take good notes. This is what |
| 125 | 00:23:08 --> 00:23:18 | you should have on your charts, go back and listen to the recordings. They cannot be altered, they can't be changed. Everything was told to you in advance. |
| 126 | 00:23:18 --> 00:23:31 | Here is the midpoint. There's my fib levels you guys like to ask me for all the time. Take a screenshot of that. Alright, here's consequent encouragement in the |
| 127 | 00:23:31 --> 00:23:39 | fair value gap. It dropped down into it hit it went a little bit past that, which is a mohawk it means it's permissible. We allow for that. The market come |
| 128 | 00:23:39 --> 00:23:53 | back up here. And then on Monday, where did we open in relationship to how we closed on Friday? relatively unchanged. Right. So was there any major gap risk? |
| 129 | 00:23:54 --> 00:24:06 | noted at the opening one Sunday? I'm sorry, Sunday going into Monday? straighting. No. So was there any kind of shock and all that was placed in the |
| 130 | 00:24:06 --> 00:24:22 | marketplace when we started trading? No. So what was the premise that I left you with on Friday of last week that we would eventually trade up to here. Using the |
| 131 | 00:24:22 --> 00:24:31 | information is down here, this was your discount. It's not done going up higher, it's going to keep going higher. But because we're going into Non Farm Payroll, |
| 132 | 00:24:32 --> 00:24:41 | look at your economic calendar. You should be aware of your economic calendar every single week. Before you start trading that week. And every single day |
| 133 | 00:24:41 --> 00:24:48 | before you even open your charts up. You should be referring to your economic calendar economic count, it could be the economy day. You can use Forex factory |
| 134 | 00:24:48 --> 00:25:01 | calendar that whatever economic calendar you like, okay, but those are the two I usually reach for and I've been doing that for for a number of years. So the |
| 135 | 00:25:01 --> 00:25:14 | bias has always been dollar higher. But because we're going into Non Farm Payroll, I was telling you that we could chop around in here in between Monday |
| 136 | 00:25:14 --> 00:25:26 | and Wednesday morning session, that setup where you want to be trading that that nonfarm payroll week, your setups are best traded on Monday, Tuesday, and up to |
| 137 | 00:25:26 --> 00:25:35 | Wednesday morning session. So come 11 o'clock in the morning, New York local time. On Wednesday, it's time for you to close up shop if you're brand new. And |
| 138 | 00:25:35 --> 00:25:41 | then just tape read, study, don't even demo trade, don't even try to hold an opinion about what you think's going to happen. Because you're probably not |
| 139 | 00:25:41 --> 00:25:49 | going to be accurate, you try not to be correct. And it will be very frustrating for you. Because you'll think that something's broken, they change the |
| 140 | 00:25:49 --> 00:25:58 | algorithm, you know, or the concepts don't work anymore, or don't work if it's brand new, and you've never done it before, or used them. And you'll start |
| 141 | 00:25:58 --> 00:26:09 | having these toxic ideas that will not lead you to be less inspired to continue. Okay, so that way you understand the context of what I'm saying here. It's not |
| 142 | 00:26:09 --> 00:26:21 | just you take one thing out of context, and make a whole doctrine about it. Bullish this is what we're expecting, if we would have saw the open here. Okay, |
| 143 | 00:26:21 --> 00:26:33 | say they said Dollar Index opened below this wick or tail? Well, that would need to be immediately erased and move higher. Did we open down or no? What happens |
| 144 | 00:26:33 --> 00:26:47 | if we would have gapped up and opened then I would have looked for it to trade down into this candles high and or the body which is a close. And then I would |
| 145 | 00:26:47 --> 00:26:57 | expect it to show some willingness to respect that. And then I would look for lower timeframe charts, to start building some kind of structure that would be |
| 146 | 00:26:57 --> 00:27:07 | bullish every down closed candle supporting price up close candles being broken to the upside, stop points on the downside that are showing immediate |
| 147 | 00:27:07 --> 00:27:15 | displacement to the upside after suicides been taken on the lower timeframes. If I start seeing those things, if we had an opening, gap higher, that's the |
| 148 | 00:27:15 --> 00:27:24 | protocol that I work with. Okay. And these discussions, these are things that I taught in mentorship that people paid me, these are things that I taught |
| 149 | 00:27:24 --> 00:27:31 | lecturing one on one back in the 90s when people would you sit with me individually? And no, I will not do one on ones, I don't care how much money you |
| 150 | 00:27:31 --> 00:27:44 | charge me, or willing to pay me I don't want your money. I'm not doing it. Okay. This idea of knowing what to do, if it does this, and what not to do, if it does |
| 151 | 00:27:44 --> 00:27:55 | another thing, those are procedures or protocols or processes that you have to have in place beforehand. You can't wing it. Okay, you can't just go with your |
| 152 | 00:27:55 --> 00:28:04 | gut and think well, you know, I think it's going to do this when you have really no data support the idea that what you're trying to do or contemplating doing is |
| 153 | 00:28:04 --> 00:28:15 | even a viable approach to take on risk. So because of the uncertainty on the weekend, not knowing what we're going to open up because of the uncertainty of |
| 154 | 00:28:15 --> 00:28:27 | the week of nonfarm payroll, and not knowing exactly what day of Monday through Wednesday at 11am, the real price run is going to occur. That makes it the |
| 155 | 00:28:27 --> 00:28:36 | highest probability trade or the week. And then after that Thursday, and Friday become well, it's a circus show. You know, can there be a good run on Thursday |
| 156 | 00:28:36 --> 00:28:43 | and Friday? Absolutely, again, but as a new trader, as a new student, someone who is learning how to do this, do you believe you're going to have the ability |
| 157 | 00:28:43 --> 00:28:53 | to do that, because I'm gonna tell you right now you don't. I'm not talking down to you, and keeping you looking at things realistically. And unfortunately, |
| 158 | 00:28:53 --> 00:29:01 | people don't like to be told that they think it's me saying that it can't be done. So therefore don't try it. I'm saying to the new student, that you should |
| 159 | 00:29:01 --> 00:29:11 | be fearful of going into conditions like this, because things can be ripe repriced quickly, just like that, all of a sudden, it moved, and you have no |
| 160 | 00:29:11 --> 00:29:21 | idea why it took place that way. And if you've risked your real money for the equivalent, or you push a button with a demo, that result is going to have a |
| 161 | 00:29:21 --> 00:29:29 | huge impact on you adversely. And it's going to be an impediment to your development, which is what I'm trying to avoid. I'm trying to help you avoid |
| 162 | 00:29:29 --> 00:29:42 | those bad those bad things. They're extreme, but allow for the subtle little stomping your toe. Do it wrong once in a while here, but it's not the end of the |
| 163 | 00:29:42 --> 00:29:53 | world and you grow from those things. It's little inconsistencies in the beginning that are not going to be gained in game changes that allow you that |
| 164 | 00:29:53 --> 00:30:01 | kind of inclusion. You don't ever want to do this anymore. Because it's easy for us, as humans to go into this and think it's Don't be too easy, and try to do |
| 165 | 00:30:01 --> 00:30:10 | something over leveraged over trading more more trades or expect certain setups to be more frequent than they should be with your experience level when you |
| 166 | 00:30:10 --> 00:30:18 | first start. They're unreasonable. They're unreasonable and unrealistic expectations. And I try to teach with that mindset. So that way, you remind |
| 167 | 00:30:18 --> 00:30:26 | yourself continuously, that it's going to take you time. And there's a lot of things that you have to learn about yourself, and how you're going to interact |
| 168 | 00:30:26 --> 00:30:35 | with the marketplace. And there's also a lot of things they're going to remain always an unknown. And one of them is how we open on the weekend, how we start |
| 169 | 00:30:35 --> 00:30:46 | trading, and how does it use that information on Non Farm Payroll week. So, Mondays, if you haven't already, write it down, Monday's of Non Farm Payroll |
| 170 | 00:30:46 --> 00:31:02 | weeks are always a trading day is absolutely a trading day. Now, apart from Non Farm Payroll, Monday can be a day where I'm willing to not do it. Unless it's so |
| 171 | 00:31:02 --> 00:31:12 | obvious. I'm willing to sit on my hands and let them have Monday. Because Monday is going to be an accumulation day, it's going to be an accumulation of stupid |
| 172 | 00:31:12 --> 00:31:20 | Street Money, retail logic, harmonic trading, you know, all this other stuff. I don't mean to be disrespectful, I'm not saying it to be disrespectful for folks |
| 173 | 00:31:20 --> 00:31:27 | that listen to me that use that stuff. But all those things have absolutely nothing to do with what price is going to do. But everybody that has their |
| 174 | 00:31:27 --> 00:31:31 | religion and price action, they're all going to be at their altar, praying that their |
| 175 | 00:31:32 --> 00:31:42 | systems in the suppose the gods behind why price goes up and down, are going to answer their prayers. And I'm waiting for that sentiment to build up. So it's so |
| 176 | 00:31:42 --> 00:31:53 | obvious that the algorithm will reprice against that underlying sentiment, it may not occur on a Monday. But if it's obvious, and it's one side, and I can |
| 177 | 00:31:53 --> 00:32:03 | frame a trade on a Monday, that's Non Farm Payroll, if it's a Non Non Farm Payroll weekend, or it's a willing to let them have Monday without me, or I'll |
| 178 | 00:32:03 --> 00:32:11 | trade the Monday afternoon session where everything's a little bit more clear. But that was the rules I've always stated, okay, I've always seen those very |
| 179 | 00:32:11 --> 00:32:21 | things. But with all that said, anyway, and one on one way around the barn, to tell you some things that you need to know, it's useful for you to know. But as |
| 180 | 00:32:21 --> 00:32:27 | a long term student, you already know, and it's probably something that's painful to have to listen to over and over again. But I like to be complete. |
| 181 | 00:32:27 --> 00:32:39 | Because all these people that come into the comment section that are brand new, they don't know. And the teacher mean wants to help them. So anyway, Monday, |
| 182 | 00:32:39 --> 00:32:52 | look at the big range here. We had that really nice run here. And then on Tuesday, we slid into our target. Now, in my mind, as inner circle trader in ICT |
| 183 | 00:32:52 --> 00:33:04 | himself in the flesh. What am I thinking for the rest of the week? Well, I would like to see this down closed candle here. I would like to see the mean |
| 184 | 00:33:04 --> 00:33:14 | threshold, which is the midpoint of that. I would like to see that keep price from closing below it. So on the on this timeframe here on the daily chart, I |
| 185 | 00:33:14 --> 00:33:32 | would very much like to see no close below that midpoint of this down close candle. So in specific terms. I don't want to see it close below 106 point 38. |
| 186 | 00:33:33 --> 00:33:46 | Eight, okay. Can it trade down here and touch that level? And go just below it by a little bit? Yes. Would it change anything if it did that? No. If it closes |
| 187 | 00:33:46 --> 00:33:59 | below that, it just means that it's problematic for this week. Not next week, not the week after that not come Thanksgiving in the States. It just means that |
| 188 | 00:34:00 --> 00:34:08 | it's indicating that it's problematic that we'll make a higher high for the week. By the end of this particular week, we're on the heels of Non Farm Payroll |
| 189 | 00:34:08 --> 00:34:19 | numbers. That's all I'm stating when I say that, it just means that if we close below this, then it's likely that we've made the high that week. That doesn't |
| 190 | 00:34:19 --> 00:34:31 | mean go short. It just means that I am content number one right away because my target that I gave you last week has been met. And for the folks that have gone |
| 191 | 00:34:31 --> 00:34:40 | through that commentary and the ones leading up to it, know that this is what we were looking for now because we've hit this I'm content, my students are |
| 192 | 00:34:40 --> 00:34:48 | content. We're not in a rush to get out there and do something else because we have Thursday and Friday still Detroit we have to do something because the |
| 193 | 00:34:48 --> 00:34:57 | markets trading we have to find something to do because why should we close the week early when we have more opportunities to go out there and make more money |
| 194 | 00:34:57 --> 00:35:09 | when your ideal mindset It should be I've made my money. Why would I want to risk it when the risks are more higher now, and where the manipulation, the |
| 195 | 00:35:09 --> 00:35:19 | manual intervention, the real market makers go in, and they do a lot of tomfoolery with price action. And you might think you see something there. It |
| 196 | 00:35:19 --> 00:35:27 | might even be something I've taught, and all of a sudden, it fizzles out and it doesn't do anything or goes the other way. It does not mean the concepts are |
| 197 | 00:35:27 --> 00:35:41 | broken, I'm telling you, where my concepts shine. But in clarity, and in full transparency, I'm teaching you comprehensively where to identify where you're |
| 198 | 00:35:41 --> 00:35:51 | going to get it wrong as the operator because you don't stand the chance, even with my concepts, in certain instances where the market is predisposed to have a |
| 199 | 00:35:51 --> 00:36:01 | great deal of manual intervention or manipulation. Last story short, they're they're rigging it so far against you that the chances of you being successful |
| 200 | 00:36:01 --> 00:36:15 | are so small, why bother doing it at all? Let everybody else get out there and harm themselves. Let everybody out there, go play in traffic. Okay. Let them all |
| 201 | 00:36:15 --> 00:36:22 | figured out that they made the mistake because they don't like to listen to me. And they want to go out and hurt themselves. So don't try to be somebody savior. |
| 202 | 00:36:22 --> 00:36:33 | Don't be the Forex Jesus, you know, the futures Jesus. Let them find out on their own. And if it removes them from the industry, so be it. If it teaches |
| 203 | 00:36:33 --> 00:36:42 | them a lesson how to think about it, like I'm teaching you, you'll be a far much more mature trader. And you'll never have that fear of missing out on Remove. |
| 204 | 00:36:43 --> 00:36:53 | Like I never miss out on a Non Farm Payroll where I'm like, oh, wish I would have done that. I wish I would have done that. My weekends ruined, I never feel |
| 205 | 00:36:53 --> 00:37:09 | that way I look at is not for professionals NFB not for professionals. But it's not us Non Farm Payroll really. So I think I've pretty much set her by straight |
| 206 | 00:37:09 --> 00:37:19 | in regards to the all that now we can drop down to the hourly chart. And here's the market trading down into that inefficiency trades just a little bit is that |
| 207 | 00:37:19 --> 00:37:32 | that's fine. And we brought up into this down close candle here. Be mindful that if we were to spike down through that daily bullish order block that was telling |
| 208 | 00:37:32 --> 00:37:41 | you that I don't want to see it close below. If it were to spike down below the midpoint of it, just have this level here, you know, highlighted because it |
| 209 | 00:37:41 --> 00:37:42 | could touch this one. |
| 210 | 00:37:51 --> 00:38:01 | Okay, so you could touch that, and then resume higher. So if you want to have a very specific level, below the daily chart, that it's going to trade down below |
| 211 | 00:38:01 --> 00:38:05 | that mean threshold of the down close candle here, this one |
| 212 | 00:38:17 --> 00:38:31 | this one here. That's that level on the hourly chart. So for an x ray view, because this this level here, we had had it like this. I should be charging |
| 213 | 00:38:31 --> 00:38:40 | money for this, folks. We don't want to see a trade and close below that level. That's mean threshold. Okay, it can spike through how far can it go. And it not |
| 214 | 00:38:40 --> 00:38:51 | really upset me. This level here that doesn't look like it's anchored to anything right. But when we drop down into our chart, it pops off rather |
| 215 | 00:38:51 --> 00:39:01 | clearly. Here's your order block right there. And it has a fair Vega, which makes it very, very strong and likely to be a measure of potential reclaimed |
| 216 | 00:39:02 --> 00:39:15 | discount, go long, Smart Money accumulation, that type of thing. Okay, but it's Non Farm Payroll. Okay, so don't take what I just said and think, Okay, I'm |
| 217 | 00:39:15 --> 00:39:25 | making the truck up, and I'm gonna be ready to take everything out of the marketplace because I said that no, I'm not saying that. I am not trading. Okay. |
| 218 | 00:39:25 --> 00:39:33 | And and I've said that before, and then some goober or send me something or somebody will send me a thing where they'll say, ICT can't do this. Can't do |
| 219 | 00:39:33 --> 00:39:42 | that. And then I go out there and make $18,000 20,000 hours and it's a live execution and you have to deal with it. I'm not trading it. Tomorrow. I'm not |
| 220 | 00:39:42 --> 00:39:53 | trading it on Friday. So don't take this as a means for going in there. And thinking this is a good setup. It's something for you to study. Okay. My |
| 221 | 00:39:53 --> 00:40:12 | concepts, just like everybody else's stuff, is prone to not work. When there is a hand in the marketplace with the intended purpose, its intention is to |
| 222 | 00:40:12 --> 00:40:23 | absolutely victimize the participants in the marketplace during these next two days, which is why I tell you as a new trader or new student, don't trade it. |
| 223 | 00:40:24 --> 00:40:34 | Many times there Phantoms in price action on these two days where you can look at it, and come up with all kinds of reasons why should go up or down. And the |
| 224 | 00:40:34 --> 00:40:42 | way I frame I teach my students high probability is when you can frame the marketplace on a one sidedness. That means if you're bullish, if you think it's |
| 225 | 00:40:42 --> 00:40:54 | gonna go higher, there's no way that you can see it, or justify why it could be as short. If you can, in any capacity. It's not high probability long. And vice |
| 226 | 00:40:54 --> 00:41:03 | versa, if you reverse it, everything that they said, conversely, be the same thing for a market that's bearish. If you can see things that are set up for |
| 227 | 00:41:03 --> 00:41:13 | your setups that are bearish and you want to go short, if you can find anything, the framing on a bullish idea, that's not high probability for a short sell. If |
| 228 | 00:41:13 --> 00:41:23 | you trade in those instances, only, your hit rate is going to go through the roof in terms of accuracy, what's your trade frequency is going to drop |
| 229 | 00:41:23 --> 00:41:31 | precipitously. And for some of you, you think that's a bad thing, it's not, you're gonna save in commissions, you're going to save a lot of mental capital, |
| 230 | 00:41:32 --> 00:41:38 | you're going to have a life outside the charts. And you're probably going to enjoy trading more than you do right now. Because right now, you're trying to |
| 231 | 00:41:38 --> 00:41:52 | turn it into your an Olympic you competitor where Olympic competitor is training year round, nonstop nutrition, training, stretching your all this stuff |
| 232 | 00:41:52 --> 00:41:59 | constantly, all the time, and you're never allowing yourself to do anything else. And you're missing out on everything like those individuals that work out |
| 233 | 00:41:59 --> 00:42:09 | and you're an Olympic participants, like their whole life is that you don't want that to be like I've done that with my life. You don't want your life to be an |
| 234 | 00:42:09 --> 00:42:22 | entire, you know, one thing of just trading, if you're not careful, you'll do that. So less frequency is a good thing. Higher choice setups is the the best |
| 235 | 00:42:22 --> 00:42:32 | thing. And it is good because it controls costs. That means Commission's every time you try to trade more, it just increases the likelihood that you're going |
| 236 | 00:42:32 --> 00:42:42 | to get that eventual losing trade or series of losing trades. And you're inviting that instance, because the more times that you want to get into the |
| 237 | 00:42:42 --> 00:42:50 | marketplace, thinking that you gotta get every tiny little fluctuation, when you don't need it. If you get the bigger runs on the four hour chart to an hourly |
| 238 | 00:42:50 --> 00:43:01 | chart, that is sufficient enough in everybody else out there that wants to try this trade every single day. If they're completely transparent with you, they're |
| 239 | 00:43:01 --> 00:43:13 | going to show you that their hit rate, their accuracy is far less than what you probably imagined it to be. And think about the things I talk about on Twitter. |
| 240 | 00:43:14 --> 00:43:21 | Think about things I'm talking about when I do these commentaries, and I'm pulling out where I think the markets gonna go. I'm giving you one good idea to |
| 241 | 00:43:21 --> 00:43:32 | focus on for your analysis. When I'm tweeting, and I call out specific levels, how many times am I doing it all week long, it says a few things. But those few |
| 242 | 00:43:32 --> 00:43:44 | things, if you just focused on them, they're better than your working income, you can turn those one or two little ideas per week. And they can be yielding |
| 243 | 00:43:44 --> 00:43:57 | more than your job does. And I'm training you to think that way. Now, I can go out here and slam you with high frequency trading setups every 15 minutes. Just |
| 244 | 00:43:57 --> 00:44:06 | like that, and I would wear you out. Yet some of you would be hopped up like you're on cocaine and want more of it. But that is not what you should be |
| 245 | 00:44:06 --> 00:44:16 | aspiring to do. As an developing student or trader. Eventually, over time, you'll figure it out. If that's your your calling, if you want to be in a |
| 246 | 00:44:17 --> 00:44:28 | measure of trading like that, that's high frequency in a lot of transactions. You got to do a lot less leverage though. When you do that not big trade size. |
| 247 | 00:44:29 --> 00:44:38 | You're gonna do a lot of high frequency trading, you want to do it in low contract sizes, because the commission costs are going to be offsetting if your |
| 248 | 00:44:38 --> 00:44:48 | hit rate is low. And you won't know that until you start trading with real money in the commission start coming out. Okay. Not that you should be fearful |
| 249 | 00:44:48 --> 00:44:58 | commissions not because they're, you know, I look at commissions as a tax. Just like when you go to your job. You know, how much money do you earn my salary is |
| 250 | 00:44:58 --> 00:45:05 | this I make this much a year or I make this as much per hour, whatever it is, but you really don't make that because everybody has their hand in it. And then |
| 251 | 00:45:05 --> 00:45:13 | you get what they think you should have after that. So that's really what you earned. And it's significantly less than what you tell everybody else that |
| 252 | 00:45:13 --> 00:45:23 | you're making it your parties and your family functions. Commission's are just like that. Okay, they like to tax me and you can't escape it. Okay. And the more |
| 253 | 00:45:23 --> 00:45:31 | overtime you make, the more taxes they're going to take from you. Okay, well, trading just like that, the more you trade, that's overtime. And that overtime |
| 254 | 00:45:31 --> 00:45:41 | is going to have an offset cost associated with it in terms of commission. So I don't ever look at commissions in the sense that, oh, this is bad. When I was |
| 255 | 00:45:41 --> 00:45:49 | younger, I hated it. I was like, Man, why do they keep taking all this money? Well, it costs money, for them to be the middleman for you to put your orders in |
| 256 | 00:45:49 --> 00:45:59 | their marketplace. And I was paying $100 per contract round turn back then in the 90s. And you guys are bitching about paying a couple bucks, you get off, you |
| 257 | 00:45:59 --> 00:46:10 | know, scot free in my opinion, but even when they're low commissions, if you do a lot, and you trade a great deal of frequency, it's not unheard of, for you to |
| 258 | 00:46:10 --> 00:46:19 | do 1000s of dollars per month in commissions. And some of you would be afraid of that, in the beginning, thinking that this is unfair. But if you're gonna do |
| 259 | 00:46:19 --> 00:46:28 | volume, and you're gonna be pushing a lot of contracts to the marketplace, you're gonna have that cost associated with your trading. So one of the things |
| 260 | 00:46:28 --> 00:46:37 | you can do is slowly grow into that by having a great deal of concern about your trade frequency, in the leverage amount that you're using in terms of the |
| 261 | 00:46:37 --> 00:46:45 | contracts that you're trading, whether it be futures, or, you know, the lot sizes, for forex, forex is a little bit different, because you're dealing with |
| 262 | 00:46:45 --> 00:46:57 | that spread to kind of like the evaporates as long as you're on the right side. But are you really trading that accurate? You know, are you having success, you |
| 263 | 00:46:57 --> 00:47:03 | know, holding on to a trade or getting spooked out so many times, and there's little losses, or doing the basically the same thing that commission costs would |
| 264 | 00:47:03 --> 00:47:11 | do in a future traitor. Okay, so everything's gonna have a cost associated with it in, the more you want to trade frequency wise, or the larger size and |
| 265 | 00:47:11 --> 00:47:24 | leverage, they invite more costs to your business. So that's kind of like the reason why I teach the way I do, but also show you that over time, the data is |
| 266 | 00:47:24 --> 00:47:34 | going to support the idea that as long as your skill set is there, and your experience is there, the sky is not your limit, okay, you can make as much money |
| 267 | 00:47:34 --> 00:47:45 | as you want to make, but you can't get there overnight. Okay. Alright, let's go back to the daily chart, finally made her way over the euro dollar. |
| 268 | 00:47:47 --> 00:47:57 | He liked everything you're hearing, you're getting a warm and fuzzy off of this, I appreciate you giving me a Thumbs Up on the video, or the live stream. As a |
| 269 | 00:47:57 --> 00:48:04 | lot of you that watch it but only a little bit of you actually put the thumbs up. And I had a guy comment. By the way, before I go, the Euro guy said ICTs, |
| 270 | 00:48:04 --> 00:48:14 | telling people to create additional YouTube channels, so that we can get fake thumbs up in fake views, when it's the same people doing it. That's not what I |
| 271 | 00:48:14 --> 00:48:23 | said. And I know what they're saying, because I didn't complete my statement or my thought at the time when I said it last week. I have individuals that say, |
| 272 | 00:48:24 --> 00:48:33 | it's not that I don't like your videos ICT, but I have thumbs up on videos that I really like. And it's usually like music or sports things. And I don't want to |
| 273 | 00:48:33 --> 00:48:44 | have your videos intermingled in my like, list or my life history. So what I was gonna say last week, and this is for completeness sake, create a YouTube channel |
| 274 | 00:48:44 --> 00:48:52 | where you're predominantly just using it for trading. And just like if you're gonna be a student of mine, that's your channel. And when you have something |
| 275 | 00:48:52 --> 00:49:00 | that you hear from me, that's good. Number one, the currency here's for free, and you know, this is just give me a thumbs up. I don't really care. I just I |
| 276 | 00:49:00 --> 00:49:07 | like to be inspired by it. Because if I've struck a nerve in you as a student, and you feel like you're getting value from me spending my time here where I can |
| 277 | 00:49:07 --> 00:49:15 | do other things, I don't need to be doing this. It inspires me to do more of it. But there's a video or live stream, I asked you guys if you wanted to see these |
| 278 | 00:49:15 --> 00:49:22 | types of things on a daily basis to have them a pre market and post market reveal. So that we could tell you where the market was gonna go before it |
| 279 | 00:49:22 --> 00:49:31 | happened and how it's how it did that day. I could do that probably in 10 to 20 minutes on both of them. Not like this. This is I mean, this is me lecturing and |
| 280 | 00:49:31 --> 00:49:39 | teaching you But calling the market telling you where it's gonna go and then revealing it briefly what it did. I can do that in 210 minute live streams, and |
| 281 | 00:49:39 --> 00:49:49 | it would be nothing for me to do that. But the cost was that it was going to be 25,000 likes. You guys couldn't get it there. So that's why it's not happening. |
| 282 | 00:49:51 --> 00:50:10 | So, anyway, let's go over to the Eurodollar Alright, so here's euro on a daily chart. And we were talking about how euro was going to be heavy. And because of |
| 283 | 00:50:10 --> 00:50:20 | the dollar bullishness, we were going to look for lower prices on Euro. Originally, I took your eye, eye to this here, and then down here. And then if |
| 284 | 00:50:20 --> 00:50:30 | we got below here and it was animated, we would trade the low here. And then ideally, trading below that low. It sounds like it's cherry picked hindsight. |
| 285 | 00:50:30 --> 00:50:37 | But I promise you, if you go back and look at things I talked about for Euro, everything that I outlined is exactly what's in your chart right now. Just like |
| 286 | 00:50:37 --> 00:50:47 | we're seeing it live together. I told you this fair Vega here, it would likely trade up into that last week, we will want to see it trade up into that and then |
| 287 | 00:50:47 --> 00:50:56 | go lower attack the the sell side below this low right there. And that's exactly what you got here on your chart. I don't own forex.com I don't have any |
| 288 | 00:50:56 --> 00:51:07 | affiliation with a broker, they're not making the charts look like things that I say. There's no manipulation here is literally me telling you the future, using |
| 289 | 00:51:07 --> 00:51:19 | the tools and the concepts that I've been teaching for 20, almost 27 years. Okay. Now, all the concepts, obviously, but I've been teaching for about 27 |
| 290 | 00:51:19 --> 00:51:32 | years, 30 years in the markets. And these things never get old. It's It's so fascinating to see how it constantly works every single week, every single day, |
| 291 | 00:51:32 --> 00:51:42 | and it won't stop you as a trader, what I want you to think about when we talk about these things and how the market delivers, okay, like look at this |
| 292 | 00:51:42 --> 00:51:53 | imbalance here. Okay, right up here. Go back and look at all the recordings back in August. In July, we were talking about this very imbalanced right here, in |
| 293 | 00:51:53 --> 00:52:03 | the way I teach imbalances is how the algorithm itself will refer to them. There are three specific levels that are paramount, but five in total. Okay, so for |
| 294 | 00:52:03 --> 00:52:16 | your notes, the imbalance pie, which will be framed by this candles low. The imbalance low which is on this instance, it's this candles high, the middle of |
| 295 | 00:52:16 --> 00:52:23 | it, which is consequent encroachment, because there's a gap, that's the midpoint here, that's this level here, then it's the upper quadrant in the lower quadrant |
| 296 | 00:52:23 --> 00:52:32 | level, that's always usually invisible, but my eye is looking at it. Like I look at this one here, that that's going into the upper quadrant. And even though it |
| 297 | 00:52:32 --> 00:52:38 | technically didn't get to it here, it's this false little bit short of it, and it's proved me right or wrong there, okay. |
| 298 | 00:52:44 --> 00:52:56 | In down here, I'm highlighting these two levels here. And they'll pop up down here, see how it felt just a little bit shorter that didn't quite get down to |
| 299 | 00:52:56 --> 00:53:07 | it. But in my mind, that's still good. Okay. And it's, it's reaching for that level, just like it used it here. Okay, so in my mind, if I have an imbalance if |
| 300 | 00:53:07 --> 00:53:14 | the range is sufficient enough to allow for these types of levels to be to be removed a factor? Obviously, if you have a fair value gap, and it's only like |
| 301 | 00:53:14 --> 00:53:27 | say, I don't know 10 pips or nine pips, I'm not going to look at the quadrant levels, because it's, it's too insignificant in terms of a range to be a factor, |
| 302 | 00:53:27 --> 00:53:39 | I would just use the high in the low and in the midpoint, okay. So there is an there is an extreme for the low end, that just kind of makes it not worth |
| 303 | 00:53:39 --> 00:53:47 | considering those quadrate levels, but the range is sufficient enough or significant enough in terms of allowing for the significance of these quarter |
| 304 | 00:53:47 --> 00:53:55 | levels to be in and which is not quarters theory. Okay. I'm not teaching quarters theory. I don't subscribe the quarters theory, I think it's bullshit. |
| 305 | 00:53:55 --> 00:54:09 | And what I'm doing is I'm teaching you how to use a defined range between a high of a candles low in a low of a candles high of this box and amount cells on |
| 306 | 00:54:09 --> 00:54:18 | efficiency. So this is a fair value gap. That's not a liquidity void, by the way, because it did have liquidity offered on both sides. But because of this |
| 307 | 00:54:18 --> 00:54:31 | timeframe, the daily timeframe, it's inefficient. In sellside, it's imbalanced by by side. That means it went up. So to reprice between this candle is low and |
| 308 | 00:54:31 --> 00:54:44 | his candles high to be efficiently delivered and to allow for symmetrical market delivery. That means this market needs to come down across those two levels |
| 309 | 00:54:44 --> 00:54:54 | being this candles low this candles high. Once it does that that is not a balanced price range that is not a balanced liquidity void. It's been taught |
| 310 | 00:54:54 --> 00:55:02 | that it's been referred to that then out of respect, you know, I use that term algae when I was on baby pest, because people were familiar with that, and I |
| 311 | 00:55:02 --> 00:55:11 | don't want to upset the applecart but clearly you can see I'm not fucking teaching Chris Laurie shit. Okay. So the midpoint of that consequent |
| 312 | 00:55:11 --> 00:55:24 | encroachment is here. Okay. Look at the body's telling you that it's signifying that that midpoint is a very integral part to what price is going to do, why it |
| 313 | 00:55:24 --> 00:55:34 | should be behaving that way. We were bearish. We have been bearish on Euro because we've been bullish on dollar. So when the market goes back to these |
| 314 | 00:55:34 --> 00:55:46 | inefficiencies, I'm not to support resistance trader. Okay, I'm not a supply and demand trader, I think that they are elementary concepts to teach the idea to |
| 315 | 00:55:46 --> 00:55:58 | someone that has no idea about what price does. It introduces them to a concept of how prices may react but not specifically why they're going to react. Okay. |
| 316 | 00:55:59 --> 00:56:09 | Supply and demand zones are, in my opinion, vague. And not every zone is salient to what the market is going to be referring to, in its underlying narrative at |
| 317 | 00:56:09 --> 00:56:20 | that given time on that given timeframe. If it were that way, supply and demand traders that use the zones that they draw out there. Well compare and contrast. |
| 318 | 00:56:20 --> 00:56:30 | When I show you my chart, how many how many zooms Have you seen on my charts? I'm calling the ones that work, right? I'm not trying to be facetious here, I'm |
| 319 | 00:56:30 --> 00:56:41 | telling you, true or not? Am I pointing out the ones that are the ones that matter? Yes. Because I'm telling you what's been codified, you're hearing him |
| 320 | 00:56:41 --> 00:56:51 | tell you what is being shown to you in price. So I'm taking your attention to the very things that matter, on whatever timeframe I'm talking about. But |
| 321 | 00:56:51 --> 00:56:58 | linking around the weekly and the daily. So that way, you're getting the smart money perspective, the higher timeframe where all of the institutions, all the |
| 322 | 00:56:58 --> 00:57:06 | order flow that the real waterflow not level to crap, all that stuff that you're really supposed to be focusing on, but you're not really looking at it, because |
| 323 | 00:57:06 --> 00:57:16 | it's not in books, you're looking for patterns for for pattern sake, when that's not what trading is. You're looking for liquidity, and you're looking for |
| 324 | 00:57:16 --> 00:57:25 | inefficiencies. That's it, that's all you're doing. And anything outside of that is going to be consolidation or manipulation where you're gonna get hurt if |
| 325 | 00:57:25 --> 00:57:33 | you're in the marketplace. Doesn't that free you up? I mean, isn't that liberating? If you really think about, let me take a step back and just listen |
| 326 | 00:57:33 --> 00:57:41 | to what I just said there? Doesn't it feel good to know that you don't need to know what price pattern price is going to respect right now? Or what theory or |
| 327 | 00:57:41 --> 00:57:51 | logic or retail theology that you're going to institute as your trading mechanism for the day. I mean, I've said this many times over the years, you |
| 328 | 00:57:51 --> 00:58:00 | know, trolling, be honest. I mean, that's what I am, right? I'm trolling everybody else, because I want these individuals to come to my content, and try |
| 329 | 00:58:00 --> 00:58:10 | to disprove it. And everybody that's ever tried that I've converted. It's like a sticky whip. Okay, I'm luring you in like a spider kimono, you're coming here to |
| 330 | 00:58:10 --> 00:58:19 | act like a fly, Buzz by me close enough. And once you start seeing what it is I'm doing here, you will stay here. And I promise I won't consume you. I want |
| 331 | 00:58:19 --> 00:58:29 | you to hang out. I want you to be successful. You can use my web, eat from my table for free. I don't need the fleece you I don't need to take anything from |
| 332 | 00:58:29 --> 00:58:39 | you. I can take as much as I want from these markets. I can do it any day I want anytime I want any market I want. Okay. And once you get that confidence, once |
| 333 | 00:58:39 --> 00:58:48 | you have that, it will seem to someone that can't do it. That's inconsistent or bitter because they can't make it work or they're trying to sell something |
| 334 | 00:58:48 --> 00:58:58 | nobody wants to buy. It sounds like arrogance. It sounds like conceited narcissism, narcissistic perspective. And it's not. It says, unrivaled |
| 335 | 00:58:58 --> 00:59:10 | confidence. And that's exactly what you would expect to achieve. If you figured out the markets are not random at all. I mean, I try to teach you how to not |
| 336 | 00:59:10 --> 00:59:21 | number one, fear the market, but you need to fear your inability to be disciplined. You need to fear the likelihood of you derailing yourself by being |
| 337 | 00:59:21 --> 00:59:28 | impulsive, being fearful that you're gonna miss a move like that is the only trade is ever going to work. And when you miss it, it's the end of the world. |
| 338 | 00:59:28 --> 00:59:39 | That's your infancy as a trader. And it's normal for you to fear the fear that thing that you missed, or fearing that it will likely be missed. But I'm trying |
| 339 | 00:59:39 --> 00:59:52 | to remind you that my systems they work on all timeframes and there's not a short supply of opportunities. Like I literally can sit down with you in the |
| 340 | 00:59:52 --> 01:00:03 | seconds charts and show you how to make what you make in a month. Right there in one trading session using a 32nd or 15 second chart, and be done in 15 minutes. |
| 341 | 01:00:05 --> 01:00:15 | Like, there's nothing holding you back with what I'm teaching you. But I have to allow for your personality to come through. Because if I try to force you into |
| 342 | 01:00:15 --> 01:00:23 | you trade with 15 second model, that's just the way it's going to be. Some of you just aren't going to be able to do that. It's going to feel too fast. When |
| 343 | 01:00:23 --> 01:00:34 | it's not fast at all. The pace at which the markets trading higher and lower, it's the same. We're looking at a daily chart here for Euro right now. And you |
| 344 | 01:00:34 --> 01:00:49 | were seeing a trade at 1.0502. And six pivots now just went up three pivots. If we're looking at this on a five second chart, it didn't move any faster than it |
| 345 | 01:00:49 --> 01:00:59 | just did here on a daily chart. But in your mind, because you're looking at the candlesticks for the purposes of looking for patterns. You want your mind is |
| 346 | 01:00:59 --> 01:01:06 | telling you okay, I need to look for head and shoulders, I need look for bull flag Bear Flag, I need to see triangles and wedges, I need to see trendline |
| 347 | 01:01:06 --> 01:01:14 | breakouts, I need to see all these harmonic patterns. You're looking at the red herring, you're looking at the sleight of hand, okay, being done and the other |
| 348 | 01:01:14 --> 01:01:25 | thing, and you're falling victim to this stuff. That's a distraction. I'm trying to train you to observe the things that matter most. I don't put the lipstick on |
| 349 | 01:01:25 --> 01:01:36 | the chart after it does it to look smart? I tell you right then in there, what it's going to do. And then it does it. That's not fraud. That's not faking it. |
| 350 | 01:01:36 --> 01:01:44 | We're on a daily chart, folks. Am I spending time in space now? Am I changing your charts? And am I manipulating the commodity, the Chicago Mercantile |
| 351 | 01:01:44 --> 01:01:56 | Exchange? I'm controlling price out there is that what you're telling me? Come on, at some point, you're going to have to submit and realize that this is |
| 352 | 01:01:56 --> 01:02:07 | really what goes on. And stop resisting. Just Just learn. Just learn, you don't have to tell anybody, you learned it. To start making money. It's all it's all I |
| 353 | 01:02:07 --> 01:02:14 | want you to do start making money and live better. That's all I want you to do. I want you to have a better life. I want you to do well, I want you to be |
| 354 | 01:02:14 --> 01:02:21 | successful. You don't have to give me a high five, you don't ever have to reach out to me, don't ever do it. There you go. So there's no obligation on your |
| 355 | 01:02:21 --> 01:02:29 | part. But I promise you, if you look at the things I'm teaching you that I'm making available for free that I could literally be making millions of dollars a |
| 356 | 01:02:29 --> 01:02:32 | month, all over again. |
| 357 | 01:02:33 --> 01:02:45 | I don't need to do it, folks. I don't need that. And it's just shocking to see how many people literally kick a gift horse in the mouth. And I'm trying to do |
| 358 | 01:02:45 --> 01:02:54 | everything I can to show you that you can do this. And it's not complicated at all. It's absolutely something that you can do. And you don't have to be so |
| 359 | 01:02:55 --> 01:03:07 | overbearing on what you place on yourself as an expectation. Now think about this as turning into a Twitter space. But whatever I got, I've been cooped up in |
| 360 | 01:03:07 --> 01:03:18 | this RV. And I didn't want to chitchat. So it's coming out right now because we're live. I'm unfiltered. about doing pretty good on that saying too many bad |
| 361 | 01:03:18 --> 01:03:27 | words. But anyway, we traded up into this level here, which was given to you beforehand. We traded up into that. And look what it does here look real close. |
| 362 | 01:03:29 --> 01:03:46 | This candles low right here. Okay, that low comes in at 1.0615. Even the high on this candle trades up into 1.0617 and two pipettes. So that's two pips and two |
| 363 | 01:03:46 --> 01:03:56 | PIP bets. That is very, very small in terms of variance between what you would expect is reasonably trading into the very vague app. And if it was perfect, it |
| 364 | 01:03:56 --> 01:04:14 | would stop right at that. 1.0615 But it only went to point what was it? 2.2 So 2.2 pips, that's a friggin spread for some brokers. So we're only talking about |
| 365 | 01:04:14 --> 01:04:25 | the spread. That's the difference. Now, some of you are gonna spread this broker bubbeleh Here's my affiliate link, by the way, save all that stuff. But that I |
| 366 | 01:04:25 --> 01:04:33 | mean, listen, folks, we're talking about the world's largest market, the foreign exchange market. You're telling me that you're not impressed with being able to |
| 367 | 01:04:34 --> 01:04:44 | determine the turning points to this degree of precision, allowing for the dealing spreads of majority of brokers to be the only variants in the high of |
| 368 | 01:04:44 --> 01:04:58 | that candle. And then it delivered where I said it was gonna go, which was a rear. If we get below this low, that will sweep that low right there. We went |
| 369 | 01:04:58 --> 01:05:12 | below that low Hear there, they round it up to here. Go back and listen to the commentaries folks. Read off that level, boom. That trade from here to here, you |
| 370 | 01:05:12 --> 01:05:25 | need to start spreading out all your lower timeframe setups on a 15 minute timeframe, hourly timeframe, five minute timeframe, one minute look at the |
| 371 | 01:05:25 --> 01:05:34 | second chart if you have the opportunity to do so. And you'll see all kinds of opportunities there that just most of the time go right over your head, you |
| 372 | 01:05:34 --> 01:05:47 | don't even notice them. But look at the how many opportunities for him on the daily chart. They're not happening every single day. But we're using this |
| 373 | 01:05:47 --> 01:05:56 | narrative that this timeframe is allowing for prolonged moves. And when you get these turning points or where I'm calling specific levels that are going to be |
| 374 | 01:05:56 --> 01:06:04 | impactful for price that they should be responding to, once it trades them, then you want to start dropping into lower timeframes and trading in New York session |
| 375 | 01:06:04 --> 01:06:13 | or the london session, looking for price to trade into the direction of this level here, this level here, this level here. That's how you use the draw on |
| 376 | 01:06:13 --> 01:06:23 | liquidity. That's not to say that you can't be a buyer and scalp Long's running out liquidity or trading into inefficiency above price. But don't marry those |
| 377 | 01:06:23 --> 01:06:32 | trades thinking that's created the low or fight thinking that I'm going to pick the low of Eurodollar. I told you don't do that. I've lost lots of accounts |
| 378 | 01:06:32 --> 01:06:43 | doing that, as a young man, I've tried many times to pick bottoms in bearish markets. And I tried foolishly to try to pick tops in bull markets. But I can |
| 379 | 01:06:43 --> 01:06:56 | pick the bottoms in bull markets. And I can pick the tops in bear markets. These were all given to you beforehand. And it's on a daily chart. My precision is not |
| 380 | 01:06:56 --> 01:07:06 | limited to one minute charts and 32nd charts and five second charts, one second charts, they're not limited to the lower timeframes. Because price is price. If |
| 381 | 01:07:06 --> 01:07:14 | I took the time, the eliminator off of the chart saying okay, it's not a daily chart, and I just said here, look at this price action. And I said no reference |
| 382 | 01:07:14 --> 01:07:25 | to time. I can teach you the same way. But because you're coming to me from a school of thought of a retail trader, and you're looking at typical classic top |
| 383 | 01:07:25 --> 01:07:37 | down analysis, which isn't. There's nothing wrong with that per se, because it to some degree, everybody's doing some measure of top down analysis. But you |
| 384 | 01:07:37 --> 01:07:50 | view the monthly is a very slow timeframe. Really, is it slow trade with 15 contracts and your trading combine tomorrow on the monthly chart, you're gonna |
| 385 | 01:07:50 --> 01:07:57 | see how slow it is, it's going to be moving the same thing in terms of pace that it's going to be doing on a one minute chart. But if you watched it on a one |
| 386 | 01:07:57 --> 01:08:05 | minute chart you're gonna make it's just neck breaking speed, I can't do this, I can't trade 15 contracts on a lower timeframe like that. So it's all relative, |
| 387 | 01:08:05 --> 01:08:13 | it's relative to the perspective that you hold going into it. Because you have a preconceived idea and notion that these markets are faster on the lower |
| 388 | 01:08:13 --> 01:08:23 | timeframes when I know faster than they are on any other timeframe. It's just giving you a plethora of setups. That's why there's a benefit of me teaching |
| 389 | 01:08:23 --> 01:08:32 | with a lower timeframe. It also reminds you that everything should be new hanging on the success or failure of these one setups that you're looking for. |
| 390 | 01:08:33 --> 01:08:40 | Because there's always new setups, always new setups, one of the greatest lessons, here's one of those things when people stay around, listen to the |
| 391 | 01:08:40 --> 01:08:52 | videos, they get little long winded. One of the greatest skill sets that I've discovered as as a trader was if I was trading on an hourly chart, okay. And one |
| 392 | 01:08:52 --> 01:09:00 | of the first models I had was trading the bond market. And I would use the stochastic. And I'm not saying that you should be using stochastic because |
| 393 | 01:09:00 --> 01:09:10 | obviously I don't do this now. But in the beginning, I would only look for going Long's and I wanted to see the daily stochastic be oversold. I wanted to cross |
| 394 | 01:09:10 --> 01:09:21 | over. And then the day after the crossover up like it was oversold and having a bullish crossover, while it's oversold. Soon as the candy would cross those |
| 395 | 01:09:21 --> 01:09:31 | signal lines. Once that happened, I wanted one day where the next day I want to see does it still open up and keep trying to come up with an oversold condition? |
| 396 | 01:09:32 --> 01:09:44 | If I got that. Then what I wanted to do was look for the 60 Minute oversold condition. So I would want a daily chart to give me a stochastic oversold |
| 397 | 01:09:44 --> 01:09:58 | bullish stochastics crossover while oversold, and then two days after the crossover after that, then I'm going to look for an hourly oversoul. Well, that |
| 398 | 01:09:58 --> 01:10:11 | that framework Okay, many times didn't work for me. And I'll have a losing trade years later, and I'm talking 10 years later, I discovered the power of using one |
| 399 | 01:10:11 --> 01:10:24 | minute charts, five minute charts, in that one trade that I would take a losing trade on, I could get that back in one hour, using a one or a five minute chart. |
| 400 | 01:10:26 --> 01:10:34 | And that's how I started using, it wasn't like I wanted to use the lower timeframes, to build big positions and pyramid like you see me doing today. That |
| 401 | 01:10:34 --> 01:10:44 | wasn't how I use it, I use the lower timeframes to mitigate losing trades that were on my model of choice. And sometimes that model wouldn't be effective. And |
| 402 | 01:10:44 --> 01:10:55 | I would be, I would lose, so then I would drop down to lower timeframes. And I would take a chunk out of that losing trade couple times in the same day to get |
| 403 | 01:10:55 --> 01:11:02 | it back. And then once I got it back, then we'll go back to trading mind model on a daily chart again. And then I got to start thinking, I was like, you know, |
| 404 | 01:11:04 --> 01:11:14 | why am I not just trading like this? Like, why am I why am I doing this, like I'm marrying an idea is what I was doing, which is why I tell you don't do that. |
| 405 | 01:11:15 --> 01:11:24 | And all of a sudden, I went from trading on a one and five minute chart with a market with one contract to trading with two contracts, five contracts, 10, |
| 406 | 01:11:24 --> 01:11:35 | contracts and up. So it was a gradual learning curve for me to discover that the books weren't successful in my hands, everything I bought and tried to use |
| 407 | 01:11:35 --> 01:11:46 | wasn't helpful to me. All it did was created more puzzles for me to waste time trying to figure it out. So I threw it all away, literally, because I have a |
| 408 | 01:11:46 --> 01:11:52 | library that's very extensive and large, but I won't throw the books away because they have sentimental value to me, even though they're absolutely |
| 409 | 01:11:52 --> 01:12:03 | worthless. And I would get no value from them, the time that I spent with them in the hopes that I hung on them. And the authors that wrote them, I had a lot |
| 410 | 01:12:03 --> 01:12:17 | of faith in these books, every time I buy them, they will be helpful to me. And they never lived up to the hype that I placed on. And that's why I tell you |
| 411 | 01:12:17 --> 01:12:22 | don't buy books. I'm telling you don't buy my books. Okay, don't do it. There you go. |
| 412 | 01:12:24 --> 01:12:33 | I'm not trying to take anything from you. I'm writing books. So that way, the things that I've authored, I've codified these things, okay, I've coded these |
| 413 | 01:12:33 --> 01:12:43 | things, okay. When I tell you, they're about to happen, I know they're going to happen. That's why I've said it, okay. But I don't want that credit, being |
| 414 | 01:12:43 --> 01:12:52 | borrowed or stolen by other people like they have done over the last seven years. They have lied, they have lied and said that it's something else that |
| 415 | 01:12:52 --> 01:13:00 | they can justify why they're doing it, and selling it under the pretense that it's something else. It's not, nothing I do is Wycoff nothing that I do supply |
| 416 | 01:13:00 --> 01:13:10 | and demand. Nothing that I do is Chris Laurie stuff. Nothing that I do is Larry Williams, except for commitment of traders. Except for his puzzle of wishing he |
| 417 | 01:13:10 --> 01:13:21 | knew what, when to buy below the opening price when he would always be a buyer of strength. I figured out how to buy under the opening price. I figured out how |
| 418 | 01:13:21 --> 01:13:29 | to sell short above the opening price and when to do it exactly when to do it, when not to do it. A lot of the things that make me stronger than most everybody |
| 419 | 01:13:29 --> 01:13:38 | else in terms of analysts is I have procedures and protocols that tell me when not to do something when everybody else out there is trying to that makes me and |
| 420 | 01:13:38 --> 01:13:48 | what I do is superior to everything else. In and of itself by itself. It completely puts me in a position. That's so upper tier, and it's not bragging |
| 421 | 01:13:48 --> 01:13:57 | because everybody else is out there trying to do something to prove to their subscribers prove to their patrons prove to their students that they can take |
| 422 | 01:13:57 --> 01:14:05 | the next day's trade when I'm telling you, sometimes it's better for you to not do anything, just sit still and be content with that. That's maturity That's |
| 423 | 01:14:05 --> 01:14:18 | wisdom. Some of you don't understand the value in that. Some of you if you just would have been more inclined to be patient and sit still instead of trying to |
| 424 | 01:14:18 --> 01:14:26 | do something else because you made a lot of money today or yesterday or last week. You want to go do it again. When I'm trying to teach even my son when he |
| 425 | 01:14:26 --> 01:14:38 | does well sit still enjoy it. Know what it feels like to have that under your belt you one you did what you were supposed to do. But if your child if you're |
| 426 | 01:14:38 --> 01:14:48 | constantly chasing the next setup, and I've had students that paid me that every single day I sat with them and did what I've done here for now. You know, a year |
| 427 | 01:14:48 --> 01:14:55 | and a half now with you all you call on things in advance on Twitter or make any analysis videos on YouTube for free publicly in the market walking out like a |
| 428 | 01:14:55 --> 01:15:05 | script and doing exactly what I say I was meant to do 90% of the time plus but not all the time. But as soon as it happens, in very least some of these |
| 429 | 01:15:05 --> 01:15:15 | individuals, and you see them sometimes make themselves available in the comment section of the videos that are made open to comments and then or replying to me |
| 430 | 01:15:15 --> 01:15:25 | on Twitter and they'll say, Okay, what now what's it going to do? They're addicted to the next thing. And they're never going to understand what it feels |
| 431 | 01:15:25 --> 01:15:34 | like to be content, as an analyst that has an independent mindset that picks and chooses their own setups, and doesn't lean on anybody else to be the catalyst or |
| 432 | 01:15:34 --> 01:15:44 | driver for it. I want you to be able to be independent from me, at some point, I want you to never have to come back to my YouTube channel and watch anything. |
| 433 | 01:15:47 --> 01:15:57 | You don't hear that from content creators, they want you to keep coming back. I want you to outgrow me, I want you to get to the point where it was great |
| 434 | 01:15:57 --> 01:16:08 | learning this, you had fun doing it. It was a wonderful experience. But thank you ICT I no longer need you. I'm among are among them patnem journey, and I've |
| 435 | 01:16:08 --> 01:16:16 | got whatever I'm going to get from you. And I appreciate it. And I'm on my way. Now. That's exactly I want I want that for all of you. I don't want this |
| 436 | 01:16:16 --> 01:16:25 | tethering. That's why I'm stopping. I'm stopping for a reason. That's personal, because I want to get my home prepared. Because things are about to get stupid |
| 437 | 01:16:26 --> 01:16:34 | and crazy. And the world's gonna go upside down. And things are gonna get harder even for rich people, it's gonna get harder. So that's why I'm giving you this |
| 438 | 01:16:34 --> 01:16:43 | skill set. So that way, you can have another stream of income to help make your ends meet. If you get rich with it, God bless you with it. But if you can make |
| 439 | 01:16:43 --> 01:16:54 | your bills in any capacity easier by having this information, I'm going to be much more blessed because of it. And I didn't ask you anything for it. You'd |
| 440 | 01:16:54 --> 01:17:05 | have to pay me for you get the test, drive it for free. And you watch me walk it out here for free. Calling beforehand, trading it. Real Money, executions, my |
| 441 | 01:17:05 --> 01:17:13 | broker, there's no excuse now. But POUND DOLLAR, we'll look at that real quick. |
| 442 | 01:17:20 --> 01:17:29 | As a reminder, and like I said last week, I'm not trying to call the tarp in the dollar, I don't think we're done. The Fed actually said they're gonna be |
| 443 | 01:17:29 --> 01:17:37 | actually raising interest rates into next year, too. So we're, we're just now in October. So if they're telling you they're going to raise interest rates going |
| 444 | 01:17:37 --> 01:17:47 | into next year. Does that sound like there's any reason for the dollar stop going up? No. What happens if we have a event that takes place that's kinetic |
| 445 | 01:17:47 --> 01:17:57 | between our country and other countries, when you think that I was going to do there is going to go parabolic straight up. So need to try to avoid trying to |
| 446 | 01:17:57 --> 01:18:10 | pick the top in $1 index, okay. If that happens, the work continues in its upward direction in terms of the dollar. That means down here, like I mentioned |
| 447 | 01:18:10 --> 01:18:22 | last week, that this is where I believe ultimately will go to for the pound. Last week, I told you watch this candlesticks tail in the midpoint of it, which |
| 448 | 01:18:22 --> 01:18:31 | is consequent encouragement to the midpoint of it because we treat wicks and tails as a gap. And you can see it trades right there. On Friday trades right up |
| 449 | 01:18:31 --> 01:18:43 | into it goes a little bit past that that's permissible that means we accept it, we are not scared. If it does that. The market does what trades lower overtakes |
| 450 | 01:18:43 --> 01:19:00 | the imbalance here, which go back up to a weekly chart for this was anchored on that's this candles high here on March 2023. March 6 rally, and in this candles |
| 451 | 01:19:00 --> 01:19:10 | low, march 20, the week of end of this year 2023. So that one single candle up here, that's a fair value gap in the form of of Bytown analysis on an |
| 452 | 01:19:10 --> 01:19:18 | efficiency, that's what's being highlighted here. So when we had that on the weekly chart and dropped down to a lower timeframe daily, that was the draw. And |
| 453 | 01:19:18 --> 01:19:27 | now this should act as a inversion, fair value. That's how I would like to use the information that it's given me. So trading above it a little bit today, |
| 454 | 01:19:27 --> 01:19:38 | that's fine. But I want to see, does it want to go lower and then use the low of it or consequent course midpoint of it if the dollar continues to go higher? |
| 455 | 01:19:38 --> 01:19:48 | Now, for the folks that are playing armchair quarterback and you want to look for something to complain about or say you didn't say this, you said that. I'm |
| 456 | 01:19:48 --> 01:19:56 | giving you the internal dialogue. I'm telling you what I want to see happen, how I would use the information, but I'm also telling you what I would not find |
| 457 | 01:19:56 --> 01:20:07 | favorable in the analysis. In other words, what would keep me From taking real risk, if someone were willing to sit down with you and tell you how they think |
| 458 | 01:20:07 --> 01:20:15 | about trading, and they're successful, and he can prove and they have done it for years in front of a legion of witnesses like I have, you would want them to |
| 459 | 01:20:15 --> 01:20:26 | be very forward with the details. Can you teach a little bit more detail? That's how I teach. I go around the long way, because I want you to understand, I want |
| 460 | 01:20:26 --> 01:20:39 | you to have every subtle nuance. Because it's nonfarm payroll Friday, my willingness to let that trade go. If it were to set up and go lower this week, |
| 461 | 01:20:39 --> 01:20:48 | it's fine. As long as it doesn't trade below this low here next week, I would start looking for shorts to get to that run that low. And I would miss any move |
| 462 | 01:20:48 --> 01:20:57 | that starts on Thursday or Friday nonpayroll. And I'm willing to let that go. How can you do the ICT, what happens if is a big move, I've been in big moves |
| 463 | 01:20:57 --> 01:21:07 | that are not Non Farm Payroll. I've been in moves that most people don't know when they're coming. Because I'm not short on supply of new setups that work |
| 464 | 01:21:07 --> 01:21:16 | real well. That's the confidence that you get learning how to read price like this, the markets still going to do these things. That because you're brand new, |
| 465 | 01:21:16 --> 01:21:26 | and you're afraid that it's going to stop working or you you'll just be a lottery winner. Where if you can just get lucky once in a while and get a payout |
| 466 | 01:21:26 --> 01:21:33 | or get a profit here or there. Okay, that's all you're looking for right now. Because in your mind, you don't believe you can be profitable. Let's be real |
| 467 | 01:21:33 --> 01:21:42 | honest with one another. Okay? If we were together talking, and we met, and I would ask you, do you really believe in your heart that you can be profitable? I |
| 468 | 01:21:42 --> 01:21:48 | would expect you to be honest, say, I don't think so I would like to be, but I don't think I'm going to be. But I'd love to have the opportunity to be proven |
| 469 | 01:21:48 --> 01:21:57 | wrong. That's the That's what I would expect if someone was being honest with me. But some of you aren't willing to admit that. And that's why you take these |
| 470 | 01:21:57 --> 01:22:06 | Gamble's and you do these prop firm challenges, and you do more account challenges than you should. Because you know, what you're doing is all chance |
| 471 | 01:22:06 --> 01:22:16 | and luck, blind luck. Because you're gambling, you have no edge, you have no model, you have no experience the lean on, you have no data to support, the idea |
| 472 | 01:22:16 --> 01:22:28 | of what did you try to do was a valid even approach at all. So that's why you are afraid of missing a move because you think that that move is gonna be the |
| 473 | 01:22:28 --> 01:22:37 | only one of its kind. It's a unicorn, you'll never find another one like that ever in existence, when it's silly to think that way. And but I understand how |
| 474 | 01:22:37 --> 01:22:47 | it is because I felt that way when I first started to. And it's important to understand that not while that is unfortunate, it's normal. And you look past |
| 475 | 01:22:47 --> 01:22:57 | it. Okay. So if it does move a lot, on Thursday or Friday, I don't care. Because of my stuff will work next week work next week after that. It'll work even on |
| 476 | 01:22:57 --> 01:23:05 | Christmas week. I want to quickly get through the rest of this because my battery's about to die. And I don't want to plug it in, because it will make it |
| 477 | 01:23:05 --> 01:23:12 | even longer than I already had. So here's the daily chart for E Mini s&p, I told you we would reach for this low down here, which is also part of this |
| 478 | 01:23:12 --> 01:23:22 | inefficiency we dug down into that. And that targets been that as well. So everything has been 100% strike rate in terms of what we're looking for going |
| 479 | 01:23:22 --> 01:23:31 | into this week. We've done it so far with all the markets. I'm not trying to call the low on your own the Emini, s&p, and like I said, I wasn't trying to |
| 480 | 01:23:31 --> 01:23:41 | pick the low on euro or POUND DOLLAR, and I'm not trying to pick the top on dollar should everything remain the same and remain everything equal, then I |
| 481 | 01:23:41 --> 01:23:49 | would expect price to want to gravitate down to this low here. And eventually if we were to accelerate, say something happens kinetically between countries as we |
| 482 | 01:23:49 --> 01:23:58 | get into the holiday season, we could see a trading below these lows here. And yes, that's a significant move. But that's not a lot in terms of what would be |
| 483 | 01:23:58 --> 01:24:15 | expected if there's something kinetic breaking out between different nations and ours. Okay, so worst case scenario, down here before New Year's. Okay. 60 minute |
| 484 | 01:24:15 --> 01:24:27 | chart. This is the opening gap for the week, where we closed on Friday where we opened this week, we went lower, came back up in lower quadrant to that level |
| 485 | 01:24:27 --> 01:24:35 | broke lower cell center bounced by sign efficiency with a breaker. That right there is a unicorn setup, folks. That is one of the wonderful setups that just |
| 486 | 01:24:35 --> 01:24:43 | repeat over and over and over again. It's there every single week multiple times on many different timeframes that this setup alone is a model in and of itself. |
| 487 | 01:24:43 --> 01:24:56 | It's beautiful, which aim for that low right there. And it hits it right there. Beautiful. That's it you're done rap. Go do something else. Your time. I gotta |
| 488 | 01:24:56 --> 01:25:05 | jump to master because I know if I don't, the battery will die. But ICT This is a professional, you should be doing longer videos you should have been |
| 489 | 01:25:05 --> 01:25:18 | preparation you should be thankful. Alright, so we had market trade down into the inefficiency. And below these lows as I mentioned, this one's here, this one |
| 490 | 01:25:18 --> 01:25:29 | here rather, in relationship in contrast to the E Mini s&p, NASDAQ has been a little bit more reluctant to go lower. Okay, so I mentioned this last week, it's |
| 491 | 01:25:29 --> 01:25:37 | it's a high resistance type thing, going through these consolidations. And sometimes you have to let it come back against you a little bit. And it's even |
| 492 | 01:25:37 --> 01:25:48 | worse when it's a Non Farm Payroll week. It's very, very hard to do that. Okay. And again, that's another reason why I'm not trying to hold overnight or for the |
| 493 | 01:25:48 --> 01:25:58 | weekly range. Like I'm usually in forex for a long time, I've taught you and I showed examples of where I'm one shot, one kill, run multiple days trading the |
| 494 | 01:25:58 --> 01:26:10 | weekly range. I'm not trying to trade that model because of the risk that's in the marketplace today. And it's been like that for a while, since 2020. So I'm |
| 495 | 01:26:10 --> 01:26:20 | content with being an intraday trader, getting in getting out and being comfortable with that. I don't know if it's going to change anytime soon. So to |
| 496 | 01:26:20 --> 01:26:28 | answer the question about that, I don't know what timeframe it's going to change that to bring me back to being one shot one kill and holding for longer term, |
| 497 | 01:26:28 --> 01:26:37 | long term moves. Right. So last week, I said we would trade up into this area here, but I wanted to see the upper portion stay open, we got that we collapsed |
| 498 | 01:26:37 --> 01:26:47 | here on Tuesday and Wednesday, we dropped again below the lows here came back a little bit more than I would like to personally have seen for NASDAQ, I would |
| 499 | 01:26:47 --> 01:26:58 | like to see it lose a little bit more ground there. On the 60 minute chart. I don't want to take these annotations off, because I want my son to see them. He |
| 500 | 01:26:58 --> 01:27:10 | hasn't had a chance to see it yet. So I'm gonna have to work around it, I apologize. Nothing in here except for the equilibrium of this range between the |
| 501 | 01:27:10 --> 01:27:21 | high and the low midpoint of that, right and here. And then they have the gap of this week where we closed on Friday, when we opened up, we basically traded back |
| 502 | 01:27:21 --> 01:27:22 | up into that gap. |
| 503 | 01:27:24 --> 01:27:34 | Two things there, the opening gap of the week, and then the equilibrium price point between this low and that high. I want to see it get heavy in here and |
| 504 | 01:27:34 --> 01:27:42 | start to rotate lower. That's what I'd like to see. But because it's Non Farm Payroll week, if it doesn't do so, it's been skin off my back, I could care less |
| 505 | 01:27:42 --> 01:28:00 | and I'm not gonna risk any money or lose or hope to profit any. So it liberates me as a analyst, not expect or be right about anything. And watch this high |
| 506 | 01:28:00 --> 01:28:11 | here. We could punch that sunlight and then maybe work its way down into this area here. Post nonfarm payroll Friday. Okay, so there you go. Run this high. |
| 507 | 01:28:11 --> 01:28:20 | runner's high or consequent parchment of that wick. But definitely take this hot here and then maybe reject that and and come back down in here come nonfarm |
| 508 | 01:28:20 --> 01:28:36 | payroll Friday morning to lead o'clock in the morning that area timewise in the five minute chart. The inefficiency written here with the order block, which had |
| 509 | 01:28:36 --> 01:28:52 | done into it, dug into it, and read up all these details here, I gave this markup and took the last trade on NASDAQ called the level out 14 864 Even which |
| 510 | 01:28:52 --> 01:29:03 | was two ticks below the actual level, which is the old hire showed on the recording and if you watch on Twitter, to this very candle, hi. All these notes |
| 511 | 01:29:03 --> 01:29:23 | here on a one minute chart. Still aren't lined up. Though, it's about the on a 32nd chart. I traded all this in here. And it came back all my stop. And then I |
| 512 | 01:29:23 --> 01:29:33 | went right back in again. And it ran right to my objective. So if you want to watch that, it's on Twitter. I can't put music on my videos anymore. Because the |
| 513 | 01:29:34 --> 01:29:43 | asshats over there on on Twitter are taking them down because I put music in them. And I give full credit to the audit to the authors. And I'm not monetized |
| 514 | 01:29:43 --> 01:29:53 | on Twitter. So it's kind of lame. But if you liked those execution videos, with the music, whatever you might want to download them and save them because |
| 515 | 01:29:53 --> 01:29:59 | they're eventually probably going to scrub all of them. Which is interesting because it's kind of like I'd never put those 20 trades out but I keep all that |
| 516 | 01:29:59 --> 01:30:08 | stuff. It's long. Are we on my YouTube channel in Natick, and that my youtube channel it'll be on my website. So good luck doing anything with that, because |
| 517 | 01:30:08 --> 01:30:20 | there'll be up there for ever. And I think that's gonna be it for tonight. I've done a lot of jawboning. I coach talked about what the market has done and |
| 518 | 01:30:20 --> 01:30:32 | reminded you where we thought it was going to do in terms of direction targets levels. This perfect, it was perfect, absolutely perfect. And just be careful |
| 519 | 01:30:32 --> 01:30:40 | tomorrow, Non Farm Payroll Friday week on Thursday, Fridays are problematic. And I'll talk to you sometime, probably on Twitter. I don't know if it'll be |
| 520 | 01:30:40 --> 01:30:50 | tomorrow fairly in the afternoon. But I'm sure I'll be tickling your Twitter there. I'll probably call something out on nonprofit here or live on Twitter, |
| 521 | 01:30:50 --> 01:30:55 | but not to inspire you to take a live trade until I talk to you then. Be safe. |