ICT YT - 2023-09-30 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Market Commentary and Review September 30 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-10-16 19:17
Outline
00:50 - Stock market performance and future predictions.
- ICT discusses the dollar index, predicting further upside despite recent gains.
03:45 - Trading with volume imbalances and PD arrays.
- I treat volume imbalances and wick encroachments as targets for trading, but with flexibility in their pinpoint precision.
- ICT emphasizes importance of respecting price levels and avoiding significant volume imbalances in trading.
07:35 - Market inefficiencies and potential price movements.
- ICT highlights importance of understanding news drivers in a choppy market.
- Ict explains that his books will lean on his YouTube channel, as live lessons are essential for understanding dynamic market concepts (18 words)
- Ict hopes that his books will help build confidence and guide students through challenging market periods (12 words)
13:02 - Technical analysis and market behavior.
- ICT analyzes the Eurodollar chart, identifying a potential range bound with a shaded fairway gap.
- ICT explains market maker sell model, highlighting fair value gap.
16:52 - Market analysis and trading strategies.
- Ict outlined a reversal pattern on a daily chart, which he believed would lead to higher prices.
- He emphasized that his bearish view on the dollar index could lead to a shift in market structure, potentially resulting in lower prices.
- ICT ignores irrelevant information and focuses on the original consolidation.
21:57 - Trading with low leverage and risk management.
- ICT emphasizes low risk trading with 1% leverage, prioritizing consistent profits over infrequent windfalls.
24:08 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT explains the different stages of market movement, including first stage distribution and second stage redistribution.
- ICT highlights the importance of recognizing these stages to make informed trading decisions, with different risk levels and leverage strategies for each stage.
- ICT believes that trading with high leverage can be tempting, but it's important to have the skill set and discipline to use it effectively.
- ICT has taken Forex accounts from small balances to millions using 5% risk on every entry, demonstrating the potential of this approach.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of transparency in trading and refutes claims of using fake white label brokers.
31:20 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- ICT asserts his confidence in his trading abilities and mocks others for lacking evidence of their skills.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding market nuances and leveraging them for consistent profits.
34:39 - Trading mindset and habits.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of a gradual, constructive approach to learning how to trade, rather than rushing or shortcutting the process.
- ICT's teaching method aims to help students feel like they're constantly growing and improving, rather than feeling discouraged by unrealistic expectations or a lack of progress.
- Trader aims for perfection but realizes blaming others for failures is easy.
38:35 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- ICT warns against using maximum leverage, but acknowledges the appeal of taking a trade with all signs pointing in its favor.
- ICT wants to be in trades where they know they're entering, without wasting time or mental capital.
- ICT believes there's a real reason why they're not trading Forex, citing increased risk due to market season.
- Ict expects the dollar to go higher but with a gradual reach, not a straight shot.
- Ict highlights the importance of volume imbalances and color past in trading.
45:18 - The differences between Forex and futures trading.
- ICT argues that futures markets are more refined and precise than forex markets due to lack of fudging and better liquidity.
- Trader warns of risks in using small stop losses in Forex trading.
48:39 - Gold and Aussie dollar prices.
- Trader discusses potential for market reversal at 10am due to consumer sentiment number.
- Trader expresses skepticism towards Aussie dollar, favoring gold instead.
- ICT believes gold prices should be much higher than they are now, potentially over $25,000, due to central bank digital currencies and gold accumulation.
- Gold will eventually become worthless, as described in scripture, and silver and gold will be thrown in the streets, similar to Venezuela's economic collapse.
55:21 - Gold trading and skepticism towards cryptocurrency.
- ICT believes gold will reach a new high due to sell-side inefficiency, but first, they will trade into an order block.
- ICT is using a unique approach that has no link to any other book or strategy, and they are openly challenging those who claim they are copying someone else.
- ICT expresses skepticism towards cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin and XRP, and believes they will eventually become worthless.
59:21 - Market analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT predicts Bitcoin will not reach $100,000, despite previous predictions of a possible price increase to that level.
- ICT uses football metaphors to explain how markets work, comparing price movements to a game plan with multiple models and a "flea flicker" play.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding narrative in trading, as it provides a framework for anticipating price action and making informed decisions.
- The speaker highlights the difference between narrative bias and narrative, with narrative bias being a one-directional premise and narrative being a more complex and nuanced understanding of market dynamics.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding narrative in trading, as it helps traders determine why price will behave in a specific way.
- ICT argues that relying solely on bias without first establishing a narrative is a common mistake that leads to poor trading decisions.
01:07:56 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- ICT expresses frustration with trading, desires to see stock trade above highs but is cautious about overzealous price action.
- ICT identifies inefficiencies in the market and anticipates price movements based on sound logic.
- Trader considers stop loss placement based on the distance between the current price and the midpoint of the lower quadrant, allowing for potential price movements above the midpoint.
01:11:33 - Analyzing price action and identifying patterns.
- ICT highlights successful trades, ignoring losses, and identifies potential areas for profit.
- ICT explains the different phases of a price run, including accumulation, manipulation, and profit relation.
- ICT explains that every price movement is a framework for his "power of three" concept, which involves anticipating price behavior based on the time element.
- ICT highlights the importance of manipulating price in different timeframes, such as a 7-second chart, to identify inefficiencies and make better trading decisions.
01:18:23 - Technical analysis and trading.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of providing detailed explanations and examples to ensure students understand and can apply the material.
- ICT wants students to have no excuses for not being able to learn and succeed in their practice, and is willing to invest time and effort into ensuring they have all the necessary information and support.
- ICT argues with audience members who are hesitant to trust his trading strategies.
01:22:28 - Market structure and price action in a live stream.
- ICT discusses the market structure and identifies a potential fair value gap, indicating a potential breakaway gap.
- ICT highlights the importance of watching the live stream and price action to determine the next move, as the market is likely to act as a breakaway gap.
01:24:58 - Trading strategies and community support.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of building a solid foundation in trading, starting with small contracts and gradually increasing size as experience grows.
- ICT warns against blindly following others' trading decisions without understanding the reasoning behind them, and encourages listeners to put in the effort to learn and improve their own trading skills.
- ICT: "We're passionate about what we do & nothing else can compare. I'll be watching you if you want to do it my way."
- ICT: "I've been teaching for years & still get critiqued, but my students are making millions. Let me show you how it's done."
01:30:42 - Market analysis and trading strategies.
- Trader discusses NASDAQ's potential as a leader vs. ES, with potential for NASDAQ to drop and ES to rise.
- ICT predicts NASDAQ inefficiency, targets quarterly shift.
01:34:21 - Technical analysis and market inefficiencies.
- ICT identifies inefficiency in NASDAQ, predicts potential sell-off.
- ICT discusses the importance of analyzing timeframes beyond the daily chart, including the four-hour chart.
- ICT argues that looking at minute candlestick durations can reveal inefficiencies that are not visible on other timeframes.
01:40:31 - Market analysis and algorithmic trading.
- ICT argues that market analysis is not random, but rather follows an algorithm that can be aligned with one's thought process for success.
- ICT teaches that the market rallying up to a high indicates the buy side is worried, and the price will go up to take out that high or reach relative equal highs.
- The price will go up to reprice to an inefficiency, allowing for engineering of liquidity, as seen when it trades up to the high and then stays below it.
01:44:20 - Level 2 data in trading and its limitations.
- ICT argues that level 2 data is often spoofed in markets, making it difficult to accurately analyze order flow.
- ICT argues that level 2 data is often misinterpreted and used to support false assumptions in trading.
- ICT uses priming techniques to build rapport with his audience and influence their responses.
- He demonstrates this by using common phrases and words to prime his audience, such as "white," "sharp," and "green light."
01:50:59 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- Trader emphasizes importance of hourly liquidity pools for intraday trading.
- ICT outlined a potential trading opportunity based on a specific price action signature.
01:54:26 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of identifying specific price levels for trading, avoiding areas where price may trade.
- ICT explains how to identify and trade inefficiencies in the market using a turtle suit strategy.
01:58:29 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- Larry Conners learned the importance of stop loss management from a book, which shifted his trading paradigm and gave him a simple, consistent approach to trading.
- Conners recommends the "Street Smarts" book and the "Silver Bullets" video for building foundational knowledge and learning time-based trading elements.
- Trader discusses using stop losses and liquidity to make trades, with a focus on smart money strategies.
- The speaker discusses the use of manual intervention in high-frequency trading algorithms, which can result in sudden and unexpected price movements.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of lowering risk and being prepared for unpredictable events, such as unexpected rate hikes or other market-moving events.
02:05:31 - Trading strategies and market inefficiencies.
- Trader explains complex trading strategies using inefficiencies in price action.
- Trader defends their trading method against criticism, using strong language to emphasize their confidence in their approach.
02:08:55 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- ICT highlights the importance of identifying liquidity pools in intraday trading, particularly when the engagement fails to reach the halfway point on the four-hour chart.
- ICT emphasizes the value of codifying trading strategies in books or YouTube videos, rather than selling them through mentorship programs or future selling.
- ICT analyzes the price action on a 15-minute timeframe and identifies levels of support and resistance, including a low of the fair and a consequent crucial level on the wick.
- ICT advises placing a stop loss above the consequent encroachment level on the wick, as price may break lower and take another swing low on the 15-minute timeframe.
- ICT discusses his hunger and wife's text inviting him to grab food before a Twitter space, while also analyzing the market movement.
- ICT explains the market inefficiency and fair value gaps, using the London low as an example, and how to trade based on this logic.
02:17:13 - Risk management and trading strategies.
- Trader shares experiences of getting stopped out and reversing trades, emphasizing the importance of understanding the underlying premise behind each trade.
- ICT sets a maximum risk tolerance of 1.5-3% for trades, depending on his comfort level.
- ICT considers factors like market conditions and personal confidence when deciding how much to risk on a trade.
02:20:58 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- Iris Chang explains how she manages risk in her trading, using a specific model that can yield $15,000 in a day, and dividing that amount into 8 equal parts to risk no more than 1%.
- Chang highlights her consistency in trading, having done it for 7 years in a public setting and inviting critics to provide evidence of her mistakes, which never happened.
- ICT argues that a recent price move was inefficient and created an opportunity for profit, citing a "pyramid entry" and a desire to see the inefficiency "stay open."
- ICT believes that the price will not be rebalanced until it leaves a specific range, based on the movement of the structure low and the retracement into it.
02:27:02 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- Trader highlights specific price patterns and algorithms in cryptocurrency trading.
- ICT argues that focusing on price action, rather than order flow or other indicators, is key to identifying efficient markets and making profitable trades.
02:30:37 - Market manipulation and trading strategies.
- Trader believes they have uncovered a hidden truth about the market, despite lacking access to high-tech tools used by top-tier traders.
- ICT believes that markets are rigged and unpredictable, leading to false starts and random price movements.
- ICT shares his trading strategies with his private community, showing proven results and outlining his methods in detail.
- ICT: "They shared my videos all over the place just like good little employees. And that's what made me viral."
- ICT: "If you're in my private group, no matter what user group you're in, I don't give a fuck. Tell them in the comments."
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:50 --> 00:01:05 | ICT: All right. Good morning. It is a good morning. To all send me a tweet, let me know that you can see my chart and get here my voice. Very, very careful not |
| 2 | 00:01:05 --> 00:01:13 | to speak too loud. Because I'm behind enemy lines here, my wife is still sleeping. And if I do this correctly, and I'm successful, I can pull this off |
| 3 | 00:01:14 --> 00:01:23 | and run over to Twitter into a shock on Saturday, too. She spent too much time last night reading your Kindle and she's sleeping in. So let's do this |
| 4 | 00:01:30 --> 00:01:33 | is the audio good? Give me a five by five on Twitter |
| 5 | 00:01:44 --> 00:01:58 | Thank you table just want to get one more person to confirm that they can hear. Awesome, thank you so much. I don't want to say your name and mispronounce it. |
| 6 | 00:02:01 --> 00:02:20 | Alright, so the market yesterday, performed rather handsomely. And if you haven't watched the September 29 2023 live stream, which will be the video right |
| 7 | 00:02:20 --> 00:02:36 | before this one in the 2023 mentorship, playlist on my YouTube channel. Watch that one first. Okay, even though you're here watching live, don't view that as |
| 8 | 00:02:36 --> 00:02:48 | advantageous because we're live. Because everything's going to be recorded. The things we're going to talk about here won't be as impactful as if you were to go |
| 9 | 00:02:48 --> 00:02:59 | and look at what was done live yesterday before it happened. Okay, so it's really important that you have that mindset. Because it's many times if I drop |
| 10 | 00:02:59 --> 00:03:10 | something, or upload something or teach someone something, the new shiny object syndrome kicks in. And you only want to worry about that very new thing, versus |
| 11 | 00:03:10 --> 00:03:22 | staying steady with your understanding work with something that's already been given to you so that we can progress properly. Impulses fun seeing it before it |
| 12 | 00:03:22 --> 00:03:35 | happens, and then watching it after the fact. Alright, so here's the daily chart of the dollar index. I mentioned that I'm not done with higher up upside. I |
| 13 | 00:03:35 --> 00:03:47 | think that we're going to still move higher. This inefficiency in here. We mentioned that yesterday, live. And we worked past a little bit that's |
| 14 | 00:03:47 --> 00:03:59 | reasonable you have we also have to remember that this wick in here, you have to draw that out. We hit pretty much that level just a little bit past that which |
| 15 | 00:04:00 --> 00:04:14 | for your notes. When we are talking about wicks in the consequent encouragement of that I treat that PD array the same way I treat a volume imbalance a volume |
| 16 | 00:04:14 --> 00:04:25 | imbalance is this separation between two candlestick bodies. They can be connected with their wicks. But the separation between the two that makes it a |
| 17 | 00:04:25 --> 00:04:39 | volume imbalance, volume imbalance and consequent encroachment of wicks or tails of a candlestick. They are in my mind permitted to be treated through and they |
| 18 | 00:04:39 --> 00:04:52 | can be revisited but the context is it's going there to allow for trades to be taken in in between these two boundaries. Okay, the bodies of the candles. So |
| 19 | 00:04:52 --> 00:05:03 | that's why you're gonna see this right here many times when I've talked about volume imbalances, folks expect them to be So pinpoint precise like a order |
| 20 | 00:05:03 --> 00:05:18 | blocks opening price or a fair value gap high and low. Okay were many times they can act as the very definitive boundaries volume imbalances and consequent |
| 21 | 00:05:18 --> 00:05:30 | encroachments of wicks you have to be flexible with them, okay, allowing them to be a target is wonderful, allowing them to be reached into as the beginning of a |
| 22 | 00:05:30 --> 00:05:41 | setup, but not holding true to the only stop that they can they absolutely can be pinpoint precise. But there's, there's a certain characteristics that you |
| 23 | 00:05:41 --> 00:05:53 | have to allow for, for those specific PD earrings. Now, there it's not in the sense that allow for 50 handles past that you 10 handles past it. But just |
| 24 | 00:05:53 --> 00:06:03 | coloring outside the lines just a little bit more than would be acceptable. For a fair value got like acceptable for a fair ageia would be like a small little |
| 25 | 00:06:03 --> 00:06:16 | movement outside the high or outside the low of it. And which is what I call Mohawk a consequent encouragement or volume and balancing, it can go past that |
| 26 | 00:06:16 --> 00:06:28 | just a little bit. And for the sake of general rule of thumb, it can go for features it can go one and a half to three handles past that, once it goes past |
| 27 | 00:06:28 --> 00:06:38 | that, then it would have to revisit it, you coming back up to it and then show respect of it there. And that's, that's how I would use it. But if it goes |
| 28 | 00:06:38 --> 00:06:49 | beyond that measure in for for x, you would use it for like you three to five pips futures is a little bit tighter because it's a more gentlemanly market. |
| 29 | 00:06:50 --> 00:06:58 | Forex is a little bit more wild west still. So because of the broker spreads and the variance between what broker you may be trading with, they can opener in |
| 30 | 00:06:58 --> 00:07:06 | house liquidity up on you, and run against you. Because you're not really trading in the same pool of liquidity like a futures market is everybody's |
| 31 | 00:07:06 --> 00:07:20 | trading the same liquidity, Forex, it simply is not as advantageous for precision it can be, you've seen me do it, you see my students do it. But I'm |
| 32 | 00:07:20 --> 00:07:32 | speaking in the specifics about a volume imbalance and or a consequent encroachment. And the last the allowance for moving beyond and still being |
| 33 | 00:07:32 --> 00:07:44 | acceptable as a PDA, right. So just put, make sure you put that in your notes. But we came off after hitting consequent correction of the wick here came back |
| 34 | 00:07:44 --> 00:07:58 | up and close time of day. I want to see over the next two weeks, it worked through this high in dig up into this imbalance up here. And in case you missed |
| 35 | 00:07:58 --> 00:08:07 | it at the beginning of the live stream or didn't watch the other ones and you just simply don't want to listen to the proper way of watching my content. The |
| 36 | 00:08:07 --> 00:08:11 | inefficiency is over here and it's rooted on the weekly chart |
| 37 | 00:08:17 --> 00:08:30 | that's this inefficiency right here. Okay on that candle right there. So the next candle to the right right there that candles high that candles low. That is |
| 38 | 00:08:30 --> 00:08:36 | the city s IB I Sibi cellphone and balance by sight and efficiency. |
| 39 | 00:08:42 --> 00:08:59 | And we talked about how Friday some news drivers here will be a factor. And I talked about how the the importance of understanding how to high impact news |
| 40 | 00:08:59 --> 00:09:13 | drivers in the same session, meaning that we had 830 core PCE Price Index, and then we had a 10 o'clock revised consumer sentiment number. So with that, it |
| 41 | 00:09:13 --> 00:09:26 | brings the likelihood of a choppy market, which is predictable. And the main takeaway I was teaching yesterday is treat it like an FOMC or a Non Farm Payroll |
| 42 | 00:09:26 --> 00:09:40 | event where it's a two stage delivery. Whatever has taken place with London and or the 830 news. The 10 O'Clock News many times does the opposite. Which is |
| 43 | 00:09:40 --> 00:09:52 | exactly why I outlined yesterday live in front of all of you that were there. How 10 o'clock would be used to run up into for NASDAQ and we'll get to that in |
| 44 | 00:09:52 --> 00:10:02 | the details. But overall, all the markets reacted the same way. They ran up and 10 o'clock. They dumped and they went lower How did I know that the rules that |
| 45 | 00:10:02 --> 00:10:15 | are outlined in the live stream on the 29th of September 2023, I literally gave you what will be the equivalent of four chapters in a book that I can't really |
| 46 | 00:10:15 --> 00:10:27 | trust, teaching just by typing out and putting charts in a book. Those lessons can't be conveyed properly. They're too dynamic. So they have to be shown in a |
| 47 | 00:10:27 --> 00:10:35 | real life setting, which is what I did it for. So in my book, you're going to actually see me refer to that very live stream. And if you were there, live your |
| 48 | 00:10:35 --> 00:10:45 | part of history in that book, because you saw it that actually happened, then you were there. So a lot of the things that my books will lean on this YouTube |
| 49 | 00:10:45 --> 00:10:55 | channel, because the lessons that I'm teaching here, they have to be done in a live setting. They can't be appreciated, they can't be absorbed or learned |
| 50 | 00:10:55 --> 00:11:08 | properly. Unless these they are shown live. A static chart won't, won't do it. Okay. So hopefully, you guys can appreciate that, in the book, in the books, |
| 51 | 00:11:08 --> 00:11:17 | rather, will be dynamic in that capacity. Because that way, it'll allow you to take your attention to a real video where moot moving candlesticks will be |
| 52 | 00:11:17 --> 00:11:30 | there, and you'll hear me give you a better explanation, more details, the logic, what I'm thinking why I'm thinking it, you know, Friday's video |
| 53 | 00:11:30 --> 00:11:41 | livestream was in my mind, something that I wanted to have as a, as a new student knew in the early 90s, when I was craving someone to be able to tell me, |
| 54 | 00:11:41 --> 00:11:49 | first of all they could it can be done to, there's no rhyme or reason to what these markets are trying to do. They're not just doing something that's |
| 55 | 00:11:49 --> 00:12:03 | unpredictable. And if I had that, I would have not lost the the drive that I did several times early on where I wanted to quit and not want to do it anymore. So |
| 56 | 00:12:04 --> 00:12:13 | hopefully, these types of lessons will you build your confidence up and help you get through things when it's not working so clearly for you. Alright, and you |
| 57 | 00:12:13 --> 00:12:21 | can see how we all know average, I'm not gonna drop any lower in our chart today. But we dropped down into that fear of a gap on a daily chart, went |
| 58 | 00:12:21 --> 00:12:33 | through it down in order block over here. Are you there? And then pull back off, which is where we're looking for these highs here. Like I said, these are |
| 59 | 00:12:33 --> 00:12:45 | suspect to me, I think that we'll want to revisit them. Do we go all the way up into that weekly inefficiency up here? I'd like to see it. You know, I'd like to |
| 60 | 00:12:45 --> 00:12:55 | see that very thing happen. But I'm not demanding that it happens on Monday or Tuesday or something like that. But over time over the next two weeks, that's |
| 61 | 00:12:55 --> 00:13:03 | like the term time horizon and allowing for looking for I think it would be realistic for it to get up in the air within the next two weeks. What does that |
| 62 | 00:13:03 --> 00:13:15 | mean? That means I'm allowing for a potential range bound and we'll see what we get. But I'm not bearish on dollars that we understand things going forward back |
| 63 | 00:13:15 --> 00:13:21 | to the daily chart and Eurodollar |
| 64 | 00:13:28 --> 00:13:40 | Alright, so I gave you something in the live stream on Friday to work with and it was based on this fairway got here. I said you can go down to lower |
| 65 | 00:13:40 --> 00:13:47 | timeframes and aim for that as an upside objective on an hourly chart and see that |
| 66 | 00:13:52 --> 00:14:02 | that's we got look at the bodies respecting that. I love seeing that and it never gets old. It stays inside the imbalance. And every time it had the little |
| 67 | 00:14:02 --> 00:14:09 | wicks above it, the shaded area okay, that shaded area is the fairway gap that's highlighted on the daily chart. Let me take you back up to it. So what you're |
| 68 | 00:14:09 --> 00:14:22 | following along the difference between this candles low look right up here, upper left hand corner right up here. This candles low is the high of the fear |
| 69 | 00:14:22 --> 00:14:32 | you got that's been shaded in blue. This is the sippy one directional candle down and then the next candle after it. It's high. Up here upper left hand |
| 70 | 00:14:32 --> 00:14:41 | corner. That high is the low of the fair value gap that's making the shaded box here. Okay, so zoomed in |
| 71 | 00:14:48 --> 00:15:00 | that's that gap. Okay. This is permissible. Okay, this is this is perfectly acceptable. It's not something to be alarmed of, or can cerned about when it's |
| 72 | 00:15:00 --> 00:15:10 | happening, every time it trades into a fair value gap, anticipated happening. It's just like when you were a child and you had a crayon, your coloring isn't |
| 73 | 00:15:10 --> 00:15:21 | always gonna stay inside the lines, it's okay. It's fine. If your child was coloring a picture for you, in the colored Outside the Lines, are you going to |
| 74 | 00:15:21 --> 00:15:28 | critique them say, look, look what you just did there, you're failing, this is misery, I'm not going to put this on my desk at work. It's not going to hang on |
| 75 | 00:15:28 --> 00:15:35 | our refrigerator in the kitchen. Of course, you wouldn't do that. So when I look at this, and I see my algorithm price like this, it's acceptable. I don't I |
| 76 | 00:15:35 --> 00:15:43 | don't look at it and and judge it and say, Oh, look, you didn't do this, right? This is part of it. This is what it's supposed to do sometimes, because it's |
| 77 | 00:15:43 --> 00:15:54 | allowing for that high of the fear Vega, which is this candles low? To get that price, it has to go what has to go one tick above it. So what's the low of that |
| 78 | 00:15:54 --> 00:16:09 | candle? 61 and a half? What's the high of this candle here? 60 172. So it's just a little bit about for a second, I thought I was talking about futures market. I |
| 79 | 00:16:09 --> 00:16:18 | was expected to be one tick. But it's just a little bit past that in terms of pips and pipits which is completely acceptable. And in the market didn't exactly |
| 80 | 00:16:18 --> 00:16:19 | we were looking for |
| 81 | 00:16:25 --> 00:16:42 | looking for it to recede and move lower. Here we got to better. So this box in case you don't know what this is, this is a market maker sell model. Oh my |
| 82 | 00:16:42 --> 00:16:52 | goodness, you start with the good stuff. Alright, so here's the fair value gap where the market could reach up into and then it does what what is it doing |
| 83 | 00:16:52 --> 00:17:03 | here? Right there. First of all, in this area here, this is Smart Money reversal, you watch me do that live in the NASDAQ yesterday, After outlining it |
| 84 | 00:17:03 --> 00:17:15 | for two hours in front of 30,000 people watching it live, that NASDAQ would go up into its respective fair value got one, I believe that the hourly chart very |
| 85 | 00:17:15 --> 00:17:24 | good. And then use that 10 o'clock sentiment number, just create the high and then trade down and run out the London low. Go look at your chart, pause the |
| 86 | 00:17:24 --> 00:17:33 | video, you're welcome to do that now. And go and watch and see if your chart did the same thing. And it did. Everybody wants the same thing happened. While using |
| 87 | 00:17:33 --> 00:17:43 | the same logic there, I was treating this run up with the idea that we were going up to reverse. I was building the entire narrative in front of every one |
| 88 | 00:17:43 --> 00:17:53 | of you yesterday that watched the live stream. Or if you haven't watched it, listen to it in the recording. It's unedited. Having a draw on liquidity above |
| 89 | 00:17:53 --> 00:18:03 | the marketplace, you have to understand is it a draw for the purposes of just simply getting out of a long position as a target, which I held no trade long |
| 90 | 00:18:03 --> 00:18:14 | yesterday, I was not in a trade yet. In fact, I had no real intention of taking one until I saw somebody share on social media allow saying that, me if I was |
| 91 | 00:18:15 --> 00:18:25 | believing that this stuff would work, I would take a trade using it. So it was safe for me to say, I'm not going to do it on then I did it. And now they're |
| 92 | 00:18:25 --> 00:18:36 | quiet. So I answered the trolls because I love the fact that we can shut them down with the proof and the evidence that this stuff works. It's not enough that |
| 93 | 00:18:36 --> 00:18:42 | they see everybody else making money with it. And I'm calling it before it happens. They gotta look for something that they can still crow about. So I'd |
| 94 | 00:18:42 --> 00:18:53 | love twisting the knife when it's in the deep with this area up here was a very ghetto outline on a daily chart that you could draw up into it did. And then at |
| 95 | 00:18:53 --> 00:19:05 | that point, was it something that we would use for continued higher prices. That's not what I was communicating to you this week. The context is, this was a |
| 96 | 00:19:05 --> 00:19:16 | target for upside. But if I'm bearish if I'm holding on to a idea that the dollar index is still likely to go higher, this promotes the idea that if I can |
| 97 | 00:19:16 --> 00:19:29 | see a shift in market structure that's bearish at this point. And to the left, do I see smooth plateaus and consolidations that were graduated in steps? |
| 98 | 00:19:30 --> 00:19:45 | Meaning here's one right here. Here's one right here. So I ignore this. I'm going to show you exactly what I'm talking about right here. So many people try |
| 99 | 00:19:45 --> 00:19:53 | to teach my market maker sell model and buy model and they think it's Wycoff in their absolutely other fucking mind because it's not Wycoff I don't care how |
| 100 | 00:19:53 --> 00:20:02 | many times you say it. It doesn't make it true. As I said before, Wycoff was alive. he'd be a student and he'd be subscribed to my YouTube channel. And he |
| 101 | 00:20:02 --> 00:20:14 | would have joined my paid mentorship. So I ignore this. My focus is this range here. So I'll borrow this now that I'm saying that all this is, is being |
| 102 | 00:20:14 --> 00:20:19 | ignored. And you're questioning is why, listen, I'm about to explain it |
| 103 | 00:20:29 --> 00:20:34 | and that would be there in on |
| 104 | 00:20:39 --> 00:20:50 | the diagrams when you see me teach the market maker sell model. This is always referred to as the original consolidation, resting below this is sellside. |
| 105 | 00:21:03 --> 00:21:13 | I'm getting carried away already. And I gotta make sure I get through this quick because I know what will happen. My wife will wake up and she'll know him up |
| 106 | 00:21:13 --> 00:21:20 | here. But she'll send me a text message, which you won't hear but I'll see my phone line up. And then it's going to break my concentration, and then we'll |
| 107 | 00:21:20 --> 00:21:37 | have to break away but I'll try to get through as fast as I can, but still be as complete as I possibly can make it. Alright, so here are here's rather original |
| 108 | 00:21:37 --> 00:21:42 | consolidation, re accumulation, Smart Money reversal. |
| 109 | 00:21:57 --> 00:22:14 | Okay, low risk cell, right there. redistribution. In here, we're forming what I believe is the second stage of redistribution. That is one of the strongest |
| 110 | 00:22:15 --> 00:22:28 | trade setups that I love the look for. What makes this not 100% Absolutely go in there and trade it with a lot of leverage, like, there are setups that I believe |
| 111 | 00:22:28 --> 00:22:36 | that for where I'll risk 5% of my account on a set up like that, and someone you're like, well, 5%, that's not a lot, it actually is a lot, that's a lot. |
| 112 | 00:22:37 --> 00:22:47 | Usually, anywhere one and a half to two and a quarter percent is generally what I'm risking. But if I'm being competitive if I'm really trying to push the the |
| 113 | 00:22:47 --> 00:22:53 | envelope of what I should be trying to do at all. And we'll be outside the parameters of any manual our students, because I don't think any of you should |
| 114 | 00:22:53 --> 00:23:02 | be risking more than 1%. Frankly, I don't think any of you should be trading more than 1% at all, you do not have the experience, and it's probably going to |
| 115 | 00:23:02 --> 00:23:12 | serve you better to do it like that. And you think that you have to do big risks to make a lot of money, because you're inconsistent. So the wins that you might |
| 116 | 00:23:12 --> 00:23:22 | get infrequently, you need them to be big, because your skill set and your consistency isn't there yet. So a professionally minded trader that has a model |
| 117 | 00:23:22 --> 00:23:33 | that works very well, they're accepting. And they receive the the instruction of trading with low leverage, as good instruction, it's good medicine, because the |
| 118 | 00:23:33 --> 00:23:46 | model will carry it. The model, the experience, the skill set of the trader will carry it with low leverage, and you'll make lots of money over time, not lots of |
| 119 | 00:23:46 --> 00:23:53 | money in a lottery win windfall, you don't want that in your trading, if that's what you want, you're not really trying to learn how to trade you're gambling. |
| 120 | 00:23:53 --> 00:24:09 | So before I get into this, I want you to see what makes this one of those trades where it's not high, high degree of let's put a lot of risk on it. We went down |
| 121 | 00:24:09 --> 00:24:21 | below, I lost my train of thought on the daily. Okay, here's the low we're aiming for on a daily chart over here, which is 105 16. And two pivots are here |
| 122 | 00:24:21 --> 00:24:38 | in the right hand side. dropping back down into lower timeframe. This consolidation, we're inside of what would be a second stage redistribution, |
| 123 | 00:24:39 --> 00:24:47 | which is the opposite of what this is like here's technically it's the first accumulation, then it's re accumulation, there can be a second stage re |
| 124 | 00:24:47 --> 00:24:56 | accumulation, but if it reaches the target that you'd be reaching for, which was the liquidity over here, and the inefficiency on the daily chart which is that |
| 125 | 00:24:56 --> 00:25:08 | shaded area to outline them a daily chart. Once again. is here, there's no necessity for a second stage re accumulation. We just, I just, I teach it to |
| 126 | 00:25:08 --> 00:25:19 | allow for and look for it. If it pauses between the first stage of re accumulation, if it creates another one in here and pauses, okay, that's the |
| 127 | 00:25:19 --> 00:25:25 | second stage re accumulation, there's no problem, it's just one more thing to refer to, on the other side of the curve. And the other side of the curve is |
| 128 | 00:25:26 --> 00:25:40 | everything to the right of the high at the target you'll be reaching for where you would anticipate and expect Smart Money reversal. Up here. The absence of |
| 129 | 00:25:40 --> 00:25:49 | another consolidation here, it doesn't make it any less of a marketing or somo, it just means that it was in a hurry to get up to this level. That's wonderful. |
| 130 | 00:25:49 --> 00:26:06 | We want to see that once it breaks away from there, because back up and gives us a low low risk, high probability entry. Okay, and you might miss that one. Your |
| 131 | 00:26:06 --> 00:26:15 | experience level might not be there, it might not allow for you to see it happening. It's okay. The ones that come after that, which is here, this is |
| 132 | 00:26:16 --> 00:26:32 | first stage distribution, the one after this that's lower is called Second Stage redistribution. That second stage redistribution if, okay, this is what this is |
| 133 | 00:26:32 --> 00:26:44 | what distinguishes the trades where I'll take a maximum leverage trade versus a trade that I'll take and risk one and a quarter, maybe 2% on, I would sell |
| 134 | 00:26:44 --> 00:26:52 | short. If everything opens up on Sunday, that would keep this intact, I would sell short. And I'm not trading Forex, so that we understand I'm not telling you |
| 135 | 00:26:52 --> 00:27:03 | to do this. But hypothetically speaking, if I were trading Forex, I would feel comfortable taking a trade in forex and trading the euro, with the expectation |
| 136 | 00:27:03 --> 00:27:14 | that we would run below these lows here. And that would be my only objective. Now had this low on the daily chart down here at 105 16. And two pivots Had that |
| 137 | 00:27:14 --> 00:27:25 | not been traded to and through yet, I would be risking 5% of my account, to aim for this level here and go lower on the market structure that's in here, right |
| 138 | 00:27:25 --> 00:27:36 | here. If you listen to me correctly, that was not an invitation for you to overleveraged your account and try to trade what I just told you. This is not |
| 139 | 00:27:37 --> 00:27:48 | this is not the high probability low. This is in my mind where I think it can sweep up because we've already went below here. It could do this, it can go down |
| 140 | 00:27:48 --> 00:27:58 | here and then come back up and consolidate and frustrate you. And you don't want to be on your highest risk or leverage on a trade like that. So there's levels |
| 141 | 00:27:58 --> 00:28:06 | of understanding what makes a trade high probability. There's levels to understanding a trade, that's high probability, but still not maximum leverage. |
| 142 | 00:28:07 --> 00:28:13 | There's a lot of things that you have to weigh out. And you thought again, there was just give me a five minute video and I'll know how to trade No, you have to |
| 143 | 00:28:13 --> 00:28:20 | know what you're doing when you're going to reach for high leverage. Should you trade with the high leverage? No, I don't think you should. But eventually, if |
| 144 | 00:28:20 --> 00:28:28 | you get the skill set that you consistent, there's going to be times when you just really want to go full bore. And you're going to test that you're going to |
| 145 | 00:28:28 --> 00:28:40 | tempt yourself the risk fate. And it might be kind to you, which is bad, because you'll want to do it again. And try to make it your steady diet. And you don't |
| 146 | 00:28:40 --> 00:28:50 | want to do that. I promise you, you don't want to do that. But there are times and you've watched me in the last 10 years. I've taken Forex accounts, and I've |
| 147 | 00:28:50 --> 00:29:01 | ran them up from very, very small balances to millions. And they were not done with the empty for rented server. They were traded with 5% risk on every entry |
| 148 | 00:29:01 --> 00:29:12 | on every partial every pyramid entry. For instance, if I built a position up, and I had seven entries, every new entry was using 5% risk on its independent |
| 149 | 00:29:12 --> 00:29:26 | entry. So that was like, collectively, it could have been a total wipeout of 20% if it would have pull back against the original entry, which was highly |
| 150 | 00:29:26 --> 00:29:36 | unlikely. But that in in theory, that's what it would have been. But that's competitive. That was me basically saying, look, there's nothing else out here |
| 151 | 00:29:36 --> 00:29:45 | like this, okay, nothing else. Nobody's going to do this. Okay. And no one's ever been able to do it. Now people with these fake white label fake brokers |
| 152 | 00:29:45 --> 00:29:54 | white label, empty for service which I swear to God Almighty, I've never done that. I don't even know how to do it. I'm aware of it. It was brought to |
| 153 | 00:29:54 --> 00:30:09 | everyone's attention by I can't remember his last name now. Adam something, something. Anyway, he came out. And he did a really good expose a of how it's |
| 154 | 00:30:09 --> 00:30:18 | done. And I've never done that. And clearly, you can see, I can read these markets like the back of my hand, every one minute candle. second chart. Like |
| 155 | 00:30:18 --> 00:30:28 | it's precise, I don't need fake stuff, I don't need that. You don't need to fake anything. And if you know what you're doing, you'll be open about it, you'll be |
| 156 | 00:30:28 --> 00:30:36 | able to go out here and a live stream explain exactly what you think's going to happen. And I've done this. So many times, I've done live trades, in the live |
| 157 | 00:30:36 --> 00:30:43 | streams, I'd literally done it, go back and watch them, they're there. They're there. If you don't want to look for him, of course, you're never gonna see it. |
| 158 | 00:30:44 --> 00:30:57 | And you can clearly see that I'm outlining these things live. The whole narrative that was outlined yesterday, was given to you. Over NASDAQ. I told you |
| 159 | 00:30:57 --> 00:31:06 | what I wanted to see in gold, I told you what I wanted to see in pound euro dollar. I was wrong and Aussie dollar, we'll look at that in a couple minutes. |
| 160 | 00:31:06 --> 00:31:17 | But I don't need fake trickery. I don't need to deceive you with anything, I have no problem, I can literally go out here in front of a court, I can stand in |
| 161 | 00:31:17 --> 00:31:24 | from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission do what I did yesterday. I ain't afraid I am ashamed. I ain't scared. I am not without skill, I can do this. |
| 162 | 00:31:24 --> 00:31:33 | Okay, I am not afraid of anybody that wants to say anything negative about what it is you're learning from me. I'm absolutely cool. Like a cucumber, I can sit |
| 163 | 00:31:33 --> 00:31:41 | out here and do this every single day. And that's not bragging, I'm telling you that if you're learning from someone, they should be willing to do that. And |
| 164 | 00:31:41 --> 00:31:46 | when they do it, they shouldn't fall on their face. They should not fail, they should not be able to. |
| 165 | 00:31:47 --> 00:31:55 | They should rather be able to be consistent with the things that you're outlining. And you should see the evidence of it. And I'm asking you, did you |
| 166 | 00:31:55 --> 00:32:04 | see that yesterday? Have you seen it in my analysis that I shared beforehand, on the higher timeframe daily charts, of course, you're seeing it, of course, |
| 167 | 00:32:04 --> 00:32:12 | you're gonna see it. And I told you, as I get closer and closer to the 11th of November, you're going to see this shift, more people are going to come forward. |
| 168 | 00:32:13 --> 00:32:21 | And they're going to try to take away your desire to learn this. And I'm going to try to put bullshit out there because they can't make money trading anyone ad |
| 169 | 00:32:21 --> 00:32:30 | revenue, because when I go away on on YouTube, and Twitter, there's going to be a void. And everybody's going to be rushing in there to fill that up. And they |
| 170 | 00:32:30 --> 00:32:39 | want clicks, they want ad revenue. If they can't prove that they can trade or whatever I've shown here proving before the fact and live in front of all of |
| 171 | 00:32:39 --> 00:32:49 | you. If they aren't dissecting that everything else they're doing is bullshit. It's all lies, it's all horseshit. It's all horseshit. And I'm laughing at them, |
| 172 | 00:32:50 --> 00:32:59 | because they're too pussyfoot to get into a real trading competition. Or come out here and do something that's better. The same people or failed traders, and |
| 173 | 00:32:59 --> 00:33:07 | social media, YouTube, Twitter, whatever, people clamor to that just like an accident on the road, when you're driving down the street, you don't really want |
| 174 | 00:33:07 --> 00:33:17 | to see anybody hurt. But you do want to see what that guy's leg looks like when it's separated from his body. It's human nature. But don't waste your time with |
| 175 | 00:33:17 --> 00:33:23 | people that are going to try to say that what you're witnessing what you're seeing people all around the world do with real money making real money |
| 176 | 00:33:23 --> 00:33:34 | consistently, it works. And because they can't do it, or they're trying to sell something that makes them a profit, that isn't this. There's your ulterior |
| 177 | 00:33:34 --> 00:33:44 | motive. Of course, of course, they're gonna say something, but they can't beat it. They can't even compare to this. Nothing compares to this. This is the |
| 178 | 00:33:44 --> 00:33:51 | market. This is the algorithm. I'm telling you exactly how price is going to book, why it should book. And I'm giving you the subtle nuances in the long |
| 179 | 00:33:51 --> 00:34:00 | winded deliveries. So that way, you know that you can trust the logic, because the questions that I'm tackling when I talk about the long winded things, if |
| 180 | 00:34:00 --> 00:34:06 | you're really trying to do this, eventually you're going to come up against the wall and you're going to have that problem. You're going to have that thing that |
| 181 | 00:34:06 --> 00:34:13 | you have to decide, what do I do at this moment? Well, that's what I've talked about. I've talked about those very things. Like when do I use maximum leverage, |
| 182 | 00:34:13 --> 00:34:20 | whatever that maximum leverage is? When do you do it? Some of you want to do competitions, I have students that want to go into the Robins cup next year. |
| 183 | 00:34:22 --> 00:34:31 | Awesome. And they're asking me, when do I push it hard? Okay, well, I'm giving you example right now, this is this is one time where I can see a setup that I |
| 184 | 00:34:31 --> 00:34:41 | would like to take a trade on, but I would not risk the maximum on that's a that's a lesson in and of itself. But you can't appreciate that because you've |
| 185 | 00:34:41 --> 00:34:49 | never traded. You're trying to in a rush, you're trying to get out there and start pushing buttons, when you don't know what you're doing, hoping that it |
| 186 | 00:34:49 --> 00:34:55 | works out for you. And that'll be the encouragement for you to keep doing it. That's the wrong way to learn how to trade. Just like going out there with a |
| 187 | 00:34:55 --> 00:35:03 | live account. Oh, even if it's a small amount of money, bullshit. That's the worry people tell you that that's the person you don't listen to. You don't |
| 188 | 00:35:03 --> 00:35:12 | listen to people that tell you that. Because it creates bad habits and toxic thinking, it makes you fearful of the outcome of each trade. Whereas in the |
| 189 | 00:35:12 --> 00:35:20 | beginning, when you're not even trading on a demo account in your your tape reading, that's confidence building, when it doesn't work out in your favor. Did |
| 190 | 00:35:20 --> 00:35:28 | you have a loss now? Do you feel like you wasted your time? No, you're observing, you're in discovery, you're trying to figure out, Is there a rhyme or |
| 191 | 00:35:28 --> 00:35:36 | reason behind price. And if you don't submit yourself that that process, trading is gonna be harder than it needs to be, it's going to take you longer. So |
| 192 | 00:35:36 --> 00:35:47 | you're, you're trying to avoid this long arduous task of what I'm trying to put my students through, which is the optimal way of learning. But you think it's |
| 193 | 00:35:47 --> 00:36:00 | too long. And then when people try to shortcut it, they always fucking fail, they fail. And I've been trying to avoid that for you. I'm trying to help you |
| 194 | 00:36:00 --> 00:36:12 | get there the quickest possible way, but in a manner that is constructive, that allows you to get there and you enjoy the process, you don't feel rushed. You |
| 195 | 00:36:12 --> 00:36:21 | don't have high expectations that you're not gonna be able to reach or meet, and then feel discouraged. That's how I teach I teach that way. You feel like you're |
| 196 | 00:36:21 --> 00:36:32 | growing at a normal pace that is normal for you to feel like you're not there yet. Even when you're consistently profitable, you're not there yet. Otherwise |
| 197 | 00:36:32 --> 00:36:41 | you you'd stop trading, right? So you're never there. The destination is always constantly being reached for its why destination excellence. That's why I teach |
| 198 | 00:36:41 --> 00:36:53 | that you're constantly looking to arrive there. I'm aiming for perfection, I know, I'm not going to hit it. I'm aiming for 100% student base. Success, I know |
| 199 | 00:36:53 --> 00:37:01 | I'm not going to hit it realistically. But I'm aiming for that when I work for all of you to do this. And I create content for you to do this. When I talk on |
| 200 | 00:37:01 --> 00:37:09 | Twitter spaces there and monetize. There's no monetization. When I'm done with this, if I can pull it off, I'm gonna run over to Twitter, and I probably talked |
| 201 | 00:37:09 --> 00:37:20 | you into my wife wakes up. There's no ad revenue there. I'm coaching your mindset. That's the stuff in the perspective you need to have, whether you're |
| 202 | 00:37:20 --> 00:37:29 | trading with my concepts or not. Because these markets will kick your fucking ass, and you will do it to yourself. And you'll blame everybody else you'll |
| 203 | 00:37:29 --> 00:37:38 | blame me you'll blame my concepts, somebody else's horseshit some other books, some other influencer, that somebody else's fault, but yours. And when I talk, |
| 204 | 00:37:38 --> 00:37:48 | I'm teaching you how to wrestle all that stuff. Because as a trader, that's coming at you every single day. And when you do it wrong, it hurts, it hurts |
| 205 | 00:37:48 --> 00:38:00 | your feelings, it hurts your pride, it hurt your ego, it makes you doubt it causes makes you second guess what you're doing it for? Is it possible. And you |
| 206 | 00:38:00 --> 00:38:11 | have to have a way to see past that. Because it's so easy to just reach for someone else as the as the blame for you failing. But all these things I'm |
| 207 | 00:38:11 --> 00:38:20 | talking about matter. And because you have never traded and you're just you just started, you have no idea what it feels like to have a winning trade with real |
| 208 | 00:38:20 --> 00:38:29 | money. You don't have any idea what it feels like to have a winning month. Net profitable, a year profitable. But when you start getting into those times where |
| 209 | 00:38:29 --> 00:38:38 | you've been doing it for a little while, you're gonna be met with a decision that you need to make. I see a trade there. How much should I risk? Should I |
| 210 | 00:38:38 --> 00:38:51 | reach for that maximum leverage right now? Could I really afford to do a trade where if it pans out, I could potentially do very well. I'm telling you try not |
| 211 | 00:38:51 --> 00:39:03 | to do that ever. But I knew human behavior. I mean, I did this stuff too. I know, I know, greed is going to tap you on the shoulder. And kid ego inside of |
| 212 | 00:39:03 --> 00:39:12 | us want to rise up so you know I could do that. Of course I can do that. Let me do it. And then you fuck around and find out. But the times that I have in the |
| 213 | 00:39:12 --> 00:39:22 | past, you'd like to use maximum leverage. It's when I can see a trade has all things going for it. So I said that and I took a long way in a long walk around |
| 214 | 00:39:22 --> 00:39:31 | the barn to just make it clear that while I do subscribe to the idea that this is going to take this low out here, which would complete the market maker sell |
| 215 | 00:39:31 --> 00:39:48 | model for this fractal. There's a larger one here. So what I'm doing here with this rectangle highlighting this consolidation that is here too. But because |
| 216 | 00:39:48 --> 00:40:02 | this is below a daily, Whoa, that is already traded below. I'm putting that to to the side and thinking okay, we may Take this low out and take the sell side. |
| 217 | 00:40:02 --> 00:40:11 | And that's a wonderful setup great. But it might return back into the range between whatever low it takes here and makes the low or low, but not go below |
| 218 | 00:40:11 --> 00:40:20 | this low yet. And this high that range between whatever low forms after taking the sell side, and this high, it can bounce around in there, and then eventually |
| 219 | 00:40:20 --> 00:40:28 | maybe go lower and take this out. I don't like to sit in those types of trades, I want to be in it. I want to be like, like a one night stand, I want to hit it |
| 220 | 00:40:28 --> 00:40:36 | and quit. I don't want to be in there wasting time spending mental capital. When I'm in the market, I want to go into trades that I know that we're I'm entering. |
| 221 | 00:40:36 --> 00:40:47 | It's not wanting to spend a lot of time. It's, it's showing up for me to get in ride shotgun with it takes off burns, rubber runs to the finish line. Fun, |
| 222 | 00:40:47 --> 00:40:57 | great, awesome, I'll see you next time I'm out of here. That's how I trade hit and run strategy. Even if I'm trading over hours, that same approach and mindset |
| 223 | 00:40:57 --> 00:41:05 | that I'm thinking about that trade. I know what I'm looking for. And I don't want to hold on to it for days, the way the markets are trading. Now. I don't |
| 224 | 00:41:05 --> 00:41:20 | want to be in overnight risk. Anything can happen. Anything can happen right now, that can cause a absolute destruction to anyone straighting. And I'm very, |
| 225 | 00:41:20 --> 00:41:31 | very cognizant of that risk. And I'm trying to convey that to you. And I think that risk is directly in futures, not sorry, Forex, not futures, I think there's |
| 226 | 00:41:31 --> 00:41:34 | going to be decoupling in currencies. So that's, again, that's why I'm telling you. |
| 227 | 00:41:36 --> 00:41:45 | You shouldn't be doing maximum leverage, but even the lowest leverage, you know, if what I'm thinking may happen, and I can't predict what market it's going to |
| 228 | 00:41:45 --> 00:41:53 | be in, I can't tell you the day it's going to happen. I just I know we're in a season, where something really bad's gonna happen. And it's enough for me to not |
| 229 | 00:41:53 --> 00:42:03 | be in that asset class. So I'd say that. So I want you to understand that there's a real reason why I'm not trading Forex. It's not because it stopped |
| 230 | 00:42:03 --> 00:42:12 | working, it doesn't mean that you can't see setups are fine setups, it just means that I'm not personally willing to do it. Because the incurred risk in it |
| 231 | 00:42:12 --> 00:42:21 | right now is enough for me to say, No, thank you, I'll go back to where I started in the roots of where I started trading in 1990, was the futures market |
| 232 | 00:42:21 --> 00:42:31 | commodity market. So anyway, that's where I think we're gonna draw to here, if we get overzealous we can go back down below here make lower lows, which I think |
| 233 | 00:42:31 --> 00:42:38 | ultimately is where we're going, if we're going higher, and dollar, this is where it's going to go. But much, like I said, in the dollar index commentary, |
| 234 | 00:42:39 --> 00:42:48 | we could consolidate a little bit, I'm not expecting a sudden straight run up on dollar in the same thing would be expected in the opposite. For your I'm not |
| 235 | 00:42:48 --> 00:42:57 | expecting some sudden drop in the bottom five, and we're down here in a day. And I don't expect that, can it happen? Sure. If it happens, I'd be like, wow, it |
| 236 | 00:42:57 --> 00:43:04 | did it. But I'm just thankful that it went where I thought it was gonna go. I'm not trying to predict the time element of it. Because that part, I don't see it |
| 237 | 00:43:04 --> 00:43:13 | here yet. There are times when I can say it should be doing this by this. But when I don't have the advantage in reading the price, and we're up against a |
| 238 | 00:43:13 --> 00:43:22 | weekend, which is always uncertain, I don't know where we're going to open on Sunday. So that's why I have to keep my commentary, but reserved enough to know |
| 239 | 00:43:22 --> 00:43:32 | that while I'm expecting this to be traded to what happens if we open up here on Europe, well, then I'm done. I'm not I'm not going to be expecting this to be |
| 240 | 00:43:32 --> 00:43:39 | traded to, I will have to wait for it to break down again. And to break down below here to create something new doesn't allow me enough range to warrant a |
| 241 | 00:43:39 --> 00:43:53 | trade there. So again, what I just said, There, that's not enough space or bandwidth in a book to be able to communicate that effectively. There's a lot of |
| 242 | 00:43:53 --> 00:44:02 | things that are just covered that in a book would not satisfy. At least for me as the writer I can't, I can't convey it in a manner where it would be |
| 243 | 00:44:04 --> 00:44:12 | satisfying as the author. So that's why I like doing video teaching. And I'm lengthy because I'm writing a fucking book every time I sit down with you. |
| 244 | 00:44:14 --> 00:44:17 | Alright, so let's go to the daily chart and move over to cable |
| 245 | 00:44:25 --> 00:44:35 | Alright, so here's British Pound versus US dollar. I talked about how eventually, I do believe that the dollar goes higher. We're gonna run that low. |
| 246 | 00:44:36 --> 00:44:45 | But again, we're not looking for a straight shot. It's gonna be a gradual reach to it. We talked about this wick in here. We traded into it just a little bit |
| 247 | 00:44:45 --> 00:44:53 | above it. Remember what I was mentioning earlier in this video or this livestream. Consequently, approachment in volume imbalances, we can allow and |
| 248 | 00:44:53 --> 00:45:00 | allow for than the color past it. Okay, just outside the lines. This is just a little bit like what I teach with the fair value game. parameters, the high and |
| 249 | 00:45:00 --> 00:45:09 | the low have very few gaps. It's usually like one tick, maybe two at most. It's not usually a full handle and futures, and then we're talking about forex. But I |
| 250 | 00:45:09 --> 00:45:19 | have to give it in this in the same light a explanations that we I get so many questions. This is working for us. This is working on futures. What's the rules |
| 251 | 00:45:19 --> 00:45:29 | for this? What's the rules, I try to come compromise with both communities, because some of you are predominantly only Forex. And many of you are waking up |
| 252 | 00:45:29 --> 00:45:36 | and realizing that futures are a better marketplace. And they're much more precise. And there's a lot less tomfoolery going on because of the broker |
| 253 | 00:45:36 --> 00:45:44 | aspects and the in house liquidity where they can open up on you, your high maybe past what everybody else is high was, what it allowed for your stuff to be |
| 254 | 00:45:44 --> 00:45:54 | taken. That's the bullshit that goes on in forex futures, we don't have that problem. Futures are a gentleman's market, that means it's highly refined, it's |
| 255 | 00:45:54 --> 00:46:05 | extremely precise. There's no fuckery like we see in forex, Forex, it's still got some wild shit that goes on in it, which sometimes can be fun. If it helps |
| 256 | 00:46:05 --> 00:46:14 | you and it works in your favor. It's great. But many times it's not as advantageous as it would be for futures, like futures, I could go in here and |
| 257 | 00:46:14 --> 00:46:25 | trade with a one handle stop loss. It's four ticks. I'm not about to try to trade with four PIP bets, and a futures contract, I'm sorry, in forex pair, and |
| 258 | 00:46:25 --> 00:46:35 | I'm fucking good, I'm not going to do that, I would never attempt to do that. Because they spread alone, they can open it up, done server and futures, I can |
| 259 | 00:46:35 --> 00:46:44 | pull that off pretty consistently, I wouldn't even attempt it at all, in in forex, so that kind of like helps you understand what makes it a gentleman's |
| 260 | 00:46:44 --> 00:46:53 | market versus the wild wild west. Hopefully that kind of like, gives you a reason to anticipate or not in the estimate that to understand why I reached for |
| 261 | 00:46:54 --> 00:47:03 | that type of analogy, that futures is a better market, it's more refined, it's polished, everybody has the same high, everybody has the same low. Everything |
| 262 | 00:47:03 --> 00:47:15 | agrees. Try that with your oanda forex.com Whatever, Tom, Dick, and Harry's, forex broker, whatever it is, they're all going to disagree, in that it's a big |
| 263 | 00:47:15 --> 00:47:25 | red flag for you. If you want highly precise elements in your trading to be consistent in when you try to trade with real world big leverage, and you're |
| 264 | 00:47:25 --> 00:47:33 | trying to take trade these really small stop losses. In Forex, that's why you're getting hurt. Because you're trying, you're trying to beat the broker that's |
| 265 | 00:47:33 --> 00:47:41 | absolutely going to cannibalize you. In Forex, it's going to happen. I'm gonna be honest with you, if I had a Forex brokerage firm, and your stop loss was |
| 266 | 00:47:42 --> 00:47:47 | within range where I can open up the spread legally, that you signed the agreement allowing for that to happen, and you don't read and read the |
| 267 | 00:47:47 --> 00:47:57 | agreements when you sign it. But that's what you just did, you gave them permission, they can do that to your account. I would do it to you, I would open |
| 268 | 00:47:57 --> 00:48:03 | up the spread. If you were if I owned a brokerage, I don't own a brokerage firm, I've never been open open. I'm never gonna open a brokerage firm. I'm never |
| 269 | 00:48:03 --> 00:48:12 | gonna open up anything like that. But if I was running one, I would do it. That's my business. That's how I get money. Especially if I'm booking someone, |
| 270 | 00:48:12 --> 00:48:22 | I'm going to do that. That's the That's the reality. I mean, you can't complain to the lion when you're in his mouth when your neck is in his mouth. And you |
| 271 | 00:48:22 --> 00:48:32 | went out there and acted like a lunch. Well, don't don't be complaining when your lunch. So anyway, I'm turning this into a Twitter space and I apologize. |
| 272 | 00:48:32 --> 00:48:45 | But the the wiki I talked about that as a factor for GBP USD. And again, all things being equal. We were looking for weakness at 10 o'clock. And we would |
| 273 | 00:48:45 --> 00:48:54 | want to see lower prices coming in on the heels of that consumer sentiment number or confidence American Recovery was in the market traded lower end up |
| 274 | 00:48:54 --> 00:49:04 | having a lower close from its opening price. Now, I'm not stating that we turned here and go low, it can I'd love to see it do that very thing. I would like to |
| 275 | 00:49:04 --> 00:49:13 | see that I want to see that. But I'm open to the idea that it might not just roll right on through that. It might spend a little bit of time in here, it |
| 276 | 00:49:13 --> 00:49:20 | might want to go a little bit higher, it's okay. But for day trading purposes yesterday, I was giving you some some critical points that you need to be |
| 277 | 00:49:20 --> 00:49:25 | worried about. And focusing on Around the time element of 10 o'clock, an hourly chart |
| 278 | 00:49:33 --> 00:49:44 | look at the reaction of that fairy just outside of the lines of the low. That's a mohawk it's completely permissible. It's just like your child coloring in that |
| 279 | 00:49:44 --> 00:49:56 | one little crayon Mark goes just outside the line. That's not a failure. That's not a it's not something that you would fault and say that's a bad thing. This |
| 280 | 00:49:56 --> 00:50:13 | is completely reasonable. And then the market resumes go on higher reaching into what time is this? 10. So that's 10 o'clock. And then the 10 o'clock news when |
| 281 | 00:50:13 --> 00:50:21 | that consumer confidence number came out, and we were looking for what we were looking for lower prices, because we, we had built the narrative, I built a |
| 282 | 00:50:21 --> 00:50:31 | narrative yesterday, in the livestream explaining to you that I felt that all that run up on Thursday, Friday's london session, all of that was preamble just |
| 283 | 00:50:31 --> 00:50:42 | to take us into a short term premium. So that way smart money could do what short that that strength sell into that strength? And then at 10 o'clock, what |
| 284 | 00:50:42 --> 00:50:58 | did it do? Well, here you see, again, lower prices. Okay. Moving back into the daily chart, we'll see where I got it wrong. I mentioned on Aussie dollar. Your |
| 285 | 00:50:58 --> 00:51:09 | market calendar actually started out somewhere you did it wrong. Prior to yesterday's live stream, I was mentioning that I wanted to see these lows taken |
| 286 | 00:51:09 --> 00:51:19 | out and upset that sell side. It did that. And then I mentioned that there was buy side here. And while we were watching price reach up, it could trade up into |
| 287 | 00:51:19 --> 00:51:26 | that buy side. And I said watch that because it might be something I don't see happen. And you go on social media and Chairman, and this is the thing is he |
| 288 | 00:51:26 --> 00:51:35 | said what's going to happen and didn't happen, of course, laughed about whatever. And it didn't have them looking at. So I guess in some way, um, was |
| 289 | 00:51:35 --> 00:51:45 | still well, right being wrong, right. I said I'm probably wrong. You know, there it is. But either way, I'm not interested in Australian doll. I'm not interested |
| 290 | 00:51:45 --> 00:51:55 | in I wouldn't trade it. There's nothing in this payer that has me thinking anything at all that makes it feel like oh, this is a great opportunity to trade |
| 291 | 00:51:55 --> 00:52:10 | right now. I will submit to this. I do believe if the dog is higher, we will trade below this low here. This looks like beat. This looks like you'd come up |
| 292 | 00:52:10 --> 00:52:20 | here and run me out. I don't think that I think they'll take this low here. Before they take these highs. That's what I submit to you here. That's the |
| 293 | 00:52:20 --> 00:52:33 | extent of my analysis for Aussie dollar is just it's not trying to behave. So it's doing its own little thing. Like an Aussie word, right. So should go over |
| 294 | 00:52:33 --> 00:52:49 | to gold. I'll quickly talk about that one. All right. And if you recall, in the live stream, and live streams prior to it, when I talked about gold, I don't |
| 295 | 00:52:49 --> 00:52:57 | like to trade this market. It's a very highly manipulated market. Gold prices should be extremely higher than they are right now they should, gold should be |
| 296 | 00:52:57 --> 00:53:09 | priced. As I mentioned before, gold should be priced over $25,000. This is all suppressed, it's fake. They're keeping it artificially priced. Because they're |
| 297 | 00:53:09 --> 00:53:21 | accumulating lots of it. And when they put central bank digital currencies in play, the the ones that are backed by a gold standard, you're gonna see gold |
| 298 | 00:53:21 --> 00:53:33 | prices explode in its value Once that occurs. So when the central bank digital currencies come on line, and the ones that are being reported that they're |
| 299 | 00:53:33 --> 00:53:44 | backed by gold, that's why all the central banks that's why all these countries are hoarding gold right now. Gold is eventually gonna be worthless to I believe |
| 300 | 00:53:44 --> 00:53:49 | the scripture says that in the last days silver and gold is gonna be thrown in the streets, they're gonna cast their money, basically. Because when the |
| 301 | 00:53:49 --> 00:53:58 | worthless, okay? That may be analogous to what we're gonna probably experience in the United States, which will be Venezuela 2.0 where our currencies |
| 302 | 00:53:58 --> 00:54:07 | literally, ship paper, toilet paper, okay, it really definitely is right now. And that's why they're, they're raiding, okay. They're running up everything |
| 303 | 00:54:07 --> 00:54:17 | real fast while there is a value perceived value. But the The goal is for us to be completely decimated. And that's that's the whole point. That's what you're |
| 304 | 00:54:17 --> 00:54:30 | watching unravel. So when the such mind digital currencies come online, and they IMF just passed its testing phase, so they got a green light go. They could roll |
| 305 | 00:54:30 --> 00:54:36 | this thing out anytime you could happen before the end of the year. It's definitely happening next year. Absolutely, definitely happening next year, |
| 306 | 00:54:36 --> 00:54:47 | before we have our presidential election. If you believe that's going to happen, I'm not convinced that we will. That aspect of what I've been announcing and |
| 307 | 00:54:47 --> 00:54:59 | telling you to get ready for once that happens, you gold's gonna go absolutely bonkers. But you have to be prepared for them to take you out if you're long. |
| 308 | 00:55:00 --> 00:55:11 | That means you're gonna have a wild whipsaw drop. But after that, it's going to be vicious going to the upside, like, it's going to be violent ly going up. |
| 309 | 00:55:12 --> 00:55:21 | Because they are going to be saying, Okay, we have all the gold now, now we can allow it to be priced at what it should be really valued at. And you'll never be |
| 310 | 00:55:21 --> 00:55:30 | able to afford buying it then. So that's how all this stuff's working. It's all the the marionette strings, how it's all tied together. That's what's about to |
| 311 | 00:55:30 --> 00:55:37 | unfold. You don't seem like talking about it. But that's, that's what's really common. But I think that ultimately, you know, as I mentioned, in the live |
| 312 | 00:55:37 --> 00:55:48 | stream on Friday, the the sell side below here, that's where I believe that we're going to reach to for gold. But prior to that, I talked about how we could |
| 313 | 00:55:48 --> 00:56:02 | trade into this order block. It did that we're inside of this inefficiency here. And taking all that away, like I said, yesterday, I'm thinking ultimately, this |
| 314 | 00:56:02 --> 00:56:10 | is where I'm drawn to. And then Friday, we had a really nice runway not to blow a quarter or quadrant of this inefficiency. That's not quarters theory, folks. |
| 315 | 00:56:11 --> 00:56:19 | So many people want to take and oh, he's teaching this. He's revamped this, it's $5 million. Again, I'll tell you every time I do this $5 million for someone to |
| 316 | 00:56:19 --> 00:56:29 | sit down and literally go through why you believe that I renamed something else in existence. And I'm using that very thing, because I promise you everything |
| 317 | 00:56:29 --> 00:56:37 | I'm doing has absolutely no link to anything that's in any other book. Unless I specifically say this was inspired by either Larry Williams, and none of the |
| 318 | 00:56:37 --> 00:56:44 | things I'm trading with his Larry Williams, Larry Williams can't look at any of this stuff and say, yeah, that's my stuff. Chris Laurie can't sit here I made |
| 319 | 00:56:44 --> 00:56:55 | Chris Laurie come out on Twitter, and tell all of you that, that what I'm teaching is none of his shit. But you ignore it. You ignore it because it |
| 320 | 00:56:55 --> 00:57:02 | doesn't fit the narrative. You want me to be able to be pinned down and say, Oh, he's copycat at somebody else and renamed it that's not what this is, folks. |
| 321 | 00:57:02 --> 00:57:12 | That's not what this is. For folks, don't believe that, go and look at Twitter, and scroll back up months ago. Because I told Chris Lord, I said, I'm about to |
| 322 | 00:57:12 --> 00:57:23 | unload OMA legal campaign on a few people. And I'm gonna drag your ass into this, because they're citing that I'm taking your content and rebranded it. So |
| 323 | 00:57:23 --> 00:57:34 | if you want to be part of that, let's go. And there it is. So he came out and told you the real thing. And he was mad enough for that, I appreciate that. But |
| 324 | 00:57:34 --> 00:57:48 | the idea is that we're looking for lower prices on gold, right under here. And we could bang around in between this high in that low in a sloppy manner, but |
| 325 | 00:57:48 --> 00:57:58 | ultimately, gravitating towards that low here. Okay, so I hate gold. I literally hate it. And I have students that love it, and do very well trading it |
| 326 | 00:57:58 --> 00:58:08 | consistently. It needs to be something event driven for me to have any kind of interest in. And I know many of you like me talking about just like you want to |
| 327 | 00:58:08 --> 00:58:18 | hear me and see me talk about Bitcoin, which I absolutely fuck all about, I don't like it. I think it's ultimately going to go to zero so that I mean that I |
| 328 | 00:58:18 --> 00:58:25 | do believe it's actually going to be zero. It's gonna be just like the NFT market, which is horseshit. When that came in, I was making fun of that to |
| 329 | 00:58:25 --> 00:58:35 | saying is, this is an IQ test. How stupid are you? Okay, and a lot of people were stupid, and bought dumb shit with it. And 99% of it's worthless. Crypto |
| 330 | 00:58:36 --> 00:58:45 | will follow the same way. You've been talking about XRP it's going to be the next thing. It's going to be nothing. Okay? It's literally shit. Bitcoin is just |
| 331 | 00:58:45 --> 00:58:58 | the thing that everybody remembers, Oh, yeah. This is what the the hashes allows Bitcoin. And every crypto to exist on, it was bent, it was built by NSA. And you |
| 332 | 00:58:58 --> 00:59:06 | all are being primed to accept central bank digital currencies. And that's the reality that you don't see. You won't accept it until you're under the bondage |
| 333 | 00:59:06 --> 00:59:16 | of it. Then it'll be perfectly clear to you, it'll be hindsight perfect 2020 You'll say, Oh, shit, this is what this is what was going on? We were just being |
| 334 | 00:59:16 --> 00:59:25 | allowed to trust it and be comfortable with it because it's a new form of money. That's a scary thing. And because there's a lot of things that I didn't want to |
| 335 | 00:59:25 --> 00:59:29 | talk about before things got set in motion, I was very careful about what I said. |
| 336 | 00:59:31 --> 00:59:42 | But I did tell you, and I'm telling you again, Bitcoin will absolutely be 00 You will not be seeing 100,000 Bitcoin, okay, I promise you, that will not happen. |
| 337 | 00:59:43 --> 00:59:50 | Here's I will delete my fucking YouTube channel. That's the only way it's going to be deleted. I will delete every fucking video on my YouTube channel. If |
| 338 | 00:59:50 --> 01:00:06 | Bitcoin goes to 100,000 data it's not happening, folks. That's not happening. Okay, done. So we're gonna go Over two Es. I probably just made a lot of crypto |
| 339 | 01:00:06 --> 01:00:16 | students angry. Don't be mad at me. I'm not trying to I'm not trying to incite pitchforks and torches. And this time, that's my opinion. You don't have to |
| 340 | 01:00:16 --> 01:00:29 | agree with it. That's what makes this world go round. See, it's how the markets work. You've got to be a bull in a bear right? Sometimes you got to bear jokes |
| 341 | 01:00:29 --> 01:00:47 | and deal with bullshit Alright, so here is the daily chart. Emini, s&p, December contract. And as I mentioned yesterday, no live stream. Very, very carefully go |
| 342 | 01:00:47 --> 01:00:54 | back and listen to it. Okay. For every market that I was saying, I had subtle nuances that I was telling you that I want to see and I don't want to see, I |
| 343 | 01:00:54 --> 01:01:02 | like this. I don't like that. Okay. All of that helps me frame a narrative. Okay, a narrative and what I think and what is narrative for, for the folks that |
| 344 | 01:01:02 --> 01:01:20 | don't know what that means, that's not bias. A narrative is when prices are behaving a specific way, not necessarily running one direction. Okay, narrative |
| 345 | 01:01:20 --> 01:01:32 | many times is going to a direction for the purposes of creating a event, then a real move takes place. That's narrative, okay. So it's kind of like a game plan. |
| 346 | 01:01:34 --> 01:01:43 | Think of it like a football players coach. Okay. He teaches these players and folks, Listen, I'm not a sports fan. I don't fucking like football. I don't like |
| 347 | 01:01:43 --> 01:01:57 | any kind of sport like that. But I do understand that a coach teaches his players or her players, a set of plays, okay, you player a new player B, you run |
| 348 | 01:01:57 --> 01:02:04 | this direction, and you run that direction. And you as a quarterback, you pass it to this person over here that no one will be paying attention to. And |
| 349 | 01:02:04 --> 01:02:14 | hopefully they can run to the goal. Okay? They don't just have one model. They don't have one play. So while in the beginning, you should be reaching for one |
| 350 | 01:02:14 --> 01:02:22 | to work with. Eventually, you're going to have a couple of models, but you're always going to have that one flea flicker. You like that? You like that? I knew |
| 351 | 01:02:22 --> 01:02:29 | one play. That's about all fuck I know. Okay. All I know, is I had a friend school that they thought that was the flea flicker. And I was like, That's a |
| 352 | 01:02:29 --> 01:02:36 | silly, yes. But I mean, I'm not going to play football, because that's a gas name. So anyway, the point is this. Oh, shit social media gonna come from he |
| 353 | 01:02:36 --> 01:02:47 | said, it's gay. Who gives a fuck? Cares? The bottom line is that that coach is teaching you a multitude as an Army as a playing Team. Okay, a team of |
| 354 | 01:02:47 --> 01:02:58 | gladiators that's trying to overcome someone else's goalpost. That idea can't come on the heels of one approach or one attempt or one model, you have to have |
| 355 | 01:02:58 --> 01:03:07 | what you have have arsenal, you have to have a way to navigate because that other team is going to have a defense. And they're going to be trying to run |
| 356 | 01:03:07 --> 01:03:18 | over you and keep you from getting that goal. So when we're looking at a narrative, I'm teaching you how you have to anticipate the likely scenarios. |
| 357 | 01:03:18 --> 01:03:27 | It's not a single scenario all the time, there are some times where I would be willing to expect or anticipate price behaving a specific way for this function |
| 358 | 01:03:27 --> 01:03:37 | to unfold in price run up to go in to buy side. Why? Why would it want to go up the buy side to take those participants out of the marketplace that were short |
| 359 | 01:03:38 --> 01:03:49 | for tricked them into being going long? For the very explicit purposes of going lower to take that liquidity, use it as a counterparty to handshake with it, and |
| 360 | 01:03:49 --> 01:04:00 | go lower and do what buy at a lower price below an old low where sell stops are resting. And you have willing participants to sell to you at a low price. That's |
| 361 | 01:04:00 --> 01:04:11 | narrative bias. What makes the differentiation between bias and narrative narrative is a ebb and flow a rhyme and reason. Bias is a one directional |
| 362 | 01:04:11 --> 01:04:21 | premise. It's going up or it's going down. That's it. Now, narrative is the first thing that's required, then once it gets to that event driven price and |
| 363 | 01:04:21 --> 01:04:32 | time, then then you have a bias. The bias is now bearish. The bias is now bullish, but prior to bias, there has to be a narrative that's understood by |
| 364 | 01:04:32 --> 01:04:44 | you. If you're sitting down in front of your charts instantly, okay, with no pretense or expected, you know what price may should do higher or lower. And |
| 365 | 01:04:44 --> 01:04:51 | you're like, Oh, I'm gonna go in and start trading, you're gambling. You have to have something expected and price action. You have to anticipate it, know what |
| 366 | 01:04:51 --> 01:05:02 | it's likely to do. And if you don't do that, or have that you shouldn't ever try to enter. Because what you're doing is is your You're impulsively chasing what |
| 367 | 01:05:02 --> 01:05:10 | you think you see in the chart right then in there. Now there is a practice as a drill I put my students through, I do it with myself still, as I keep myself |
| 368 | 01:05:10 --> 01:05:22 | fresh in real snappy with my decision making, and I teach my sons to look at it this way to where they'll tell me a timeframe, just come off the, you know, off |
| 369 | 01:05:22 --> 01:05:31 | the cuff with some kind of random number. And whatever that number is, I put that in as a timeframe. And I had to immediate soon as the chart opens up when |
| 370 | 01:05:31 --> 01:05:39 | the markets are live, I tell them, Okay, as soon as it's there, I have to tell them where it's gonna go to next, right then in there, that's a real fun thing |
| 371 | 01:05:39 --> 01:05:49 | to do. And it's fascinating to them when they see I'm right, but the few times that I'm wrong, you know, it's okay. It's okay. And that's what it's going to be |
| 372 | 01:05:49 --> 01:05:56 | like for you, when you when you first start to use these concepts. Sometimes it's going to work and the few times that you're gonna struggle with it, you |
| 373 | 01:05:56 --> 01:06:09 | need to see past it. Because everything is going to be far from 100%, nobody's gonna be 100%. I'm not 100%, you're not going to be 100%. And you have to accept |
| 374 | 01:06:09 --> 01:06:18 | that. So the way you accept it the way you navigate price, the way you build a model and trust that model is having the understanding of a narrative and price, |
| 375 | 01:06:18 --> 01:06:28 | why will price likely do a specific thing? And why shouldn't it do another thing? And by having that as the beginning foundations to what and why you're |
| 376 | 01:06:28 --> 01:06:38 | trading? Then you can trust a bias. See, that's the part that all of you say, if if ICT could just teach me how to know the bias, and I could trust the bias all |
| 377 | 01:06:38 --> 01:06:45 | the time, I would make money, that's bullshit. You would screw it up somewhere else you would rush to get in, you wouldn't use a stop loss and normal static |
| 378 | 01:06:45 --> 01:06:52 | volatility would squeeze against you. And you'll close the trade and then it will go where you thought it was. And you'll blame me or blame the concepts |
| 379 | 01:06:52 --> 01:07:07 | don't work when they do you just fucking up. The idea of looking for bias is not the answer. Narrative is why should it behave a specific way? Why should it go |
| 380 | 01:07:07 --> 01:07:22 | to a specific pool of liquidity? Why should it reprice to inefficiency, because that's all it's doing. That's all price is doing. But if you try to go around or |
| 381 | 01:07:22 --> 01:07:32 | circumvent the need to determine a narrative, and you're trying to derive a bias without that stage or step in the process, that's why you're having a hard time |
| 382 | 01:07:32 --> 01:07:42 | determining bias. That's the missing part. But you don't want to listen to these long videos and discussions where I'm teaching you it. You want it to be easy. |
| 383 | 01:07:43 --> 01:07:50 | Like get on a bike, I don't mind getting on the bike and falling off a few times. But as long as I figured out in the hour, and I'm pedaling and going |
| 384 | 01:07:50 --> 01:07:58 | around the neighborhood with my friends with their bikes. That's what I'm looking for. That's not how trading is. I wish it was like that. For my own |
| 385 | 01:07:58 --> 01:08:06 | children's sake. I wish it was like that. I wish it would have been like that for me. Yeah, for my paid students that paid me I wish it would have been like |
| 386 | 01:08:06 --> 01:08:16 | that for them. Every one of my profitable students will honestly tell you, it's harder than you think it's going to be it's going to take longer than you want |
| 387 | 01:08:16 --> 01:08:27 | it to be. But if you want it you'll submit to it and you'll get there at the right time. But for as I talked about I did not go back and watch the live |
| 388 | 01:08:27 --> 01:08:37 | stream I did not want to see it trade above these highs when we get into mass like I said I do want to see a trade above that but these specific appears here |
| 389 | 01:08:37 --> 01:08:51 | so I don't want to see a trade about that. We want to see it trade up into by side running higher into the 10 o'clock hour and let's drop into a 60 minute |
| 390 | 01:08:51 --> 01:09:05 | chart here's the inefficiency. And here's the buy side I said when we were trading here I said it's likely to draw up to take that by side and any |
| 391 | 01:09:05 --> 01:09:13 | overzealous price action it will trade into this inefficiency I did not say it's going to go above this high I did not say it's gonna go up here I said it would |
| 392 | 01:09:13 --> 01:09:23 | want to go into this area for the purposes of taking the by side but it's going to go into this right here. This is a city Sibi city sellside unbalanced by sign |
| 393 | 01:09:23 --> 01:09:26 | efficiency one second |
| 394 | 01:09:31 --> 01:09:43 | All right. And what you want to do is you want to take a look at that and anytime you have an inefficiency This is not quarters theory. I have to keep |
| 395 | 01:09:43 --> 01:09:51 | doing that. I know it gets on your nerves when I do things like that but you'd be surprised if you're new here. So many people try to talk shit and say that |
| 396 | 01:09:51 --> 01:09:58 | I'm teaching something else and rebranding it renaming it. Find quarters theory in this okay because it's not there and Wycoff it was known about this. This |
| 397 | 01:09:58 --> 01:10:09 | inefficiency you graded Okay, consequent correction is the midpoint. The lower quadrant down here. That's what it's respecting. Yeah, we have a little Malhotra |
| 398 | 01:10:09 --> 01:10:16 | here, but look at that candle and look at that candle there. You see that? That's not fucking random. That's absolutely controlled. It's programmed, it's |
| 399 | 01:10:16 --> 01:10:24 | going to do those things in the future to okay, if it's bearish. And we anticipate price going up into that level to take up the buy stops that are |
| 400 | 01:10:24 --> 01:10:34 | resting right above that high. How far can it go past that ICT? How far can I reasonably expect it to go so that way I can place a stop loss where I can sleep |
| 401 | 01:10:34 --> 01:10:42 | at night knowing that I'm doing things with a systematic approach. That's not random. I know when I'm placing my stop loss, it's based on sound logic, it's |
| 402 | 01:10:42 --> 01:10:52 | not guesswork. Okay. For me, you have to consider the fact that we could trade above consequent encroachment, which is the midpoint, it can do that. How can it |
| 403 | 01:10:52 --> 01:11:02 | do it just like it did here, just a little bit past it. So if you're gonna go shorten here, you have to allow for your stop to be where it just above this, |
| 404 | 01:11:02 --> 01:11:09 | plus another handle. So more than half handles two handles above, consequent parchment. If you're going to sell short here, your stuff has to be at least two |
| 405 | 01:11:09 --> 01:11:19 | handles minimum might, in my opinion, two candles above that level right there. I can't take that trade, then you can't take that trade. I don't know why I |
| 406 | 01:11:19 --> 01:11:33 | can't take that trade because there's micros $5 per point, you're trying to tell me you can't risk 20 bucks, risk 20 bucks to make a couple 100. You're all |
| 407 | 01:11:33 --> 01:11:42 | looking for his high multiple trades. And you think you can't make money trading a micro. My son just showed it to you even though he he finally met his demise |
| 408 | 01:11:42 --> 01:11:56 | with it. He got two payouts in one month inside of one month, he passed three Express top step accounts, the $50,000 islands had 12 Winning days in a row hit |
| 409 | 01:11:56 --> 01:12:05 | their leaderboard on their live stream. You see his name up there and took two payouts when 90% Club never get a payout. Many many of them don't even get |
| 410 | 01:12:05 --> 01:12:17 | funded. He got funded on three got 12 days consistently profitable, and took two payouts inside of one month. So he destroyed the fucking stats. sign if you're |
| 411 | 01:12:17 --> 01:12:27 | listened, that's not failure. I'm proud. I'm proud of you. But this area here, we talked about that yesterday trading up into that with the pretense that it's |
| 412 | 01:12:27 --> 01:12:37 | going up to go down where to take out on them. Go back and listen, go back and listen. It's all there. You can't cherry pick the bullshit and say, Oh, he said |
| 413 | 01:12:37 --> 01:12:48 | this and said that? No, it's all there. Relative equal lows. These are how you want to study. Okay? It traded up here and pulled down to what just this love? |
| 414 | 01:12:48 --> 01:12:57 | No, it's really likely to be swept because there's two of them. And ignoring all this to the left, I don't care about that. I'm looking for areas where this is |
| 415 | 01:12:57 --> 01:13:08 | smooth. And smooth edges like to be made jagged. And the market pulls from this area here we talked about as a target that sets up a move that 10 o'clock will |
| 416 | 01:13:08 --> 01:13:19 | the lower What's this candles time? Nine o'clock. Next candle right there, where it's touching the lower quadrant of this range. At 10 o'clock when the news |
| 417 | 01:13:19 --> 01:13:35 | comes out? What's the price doing? Dropping at 11 o'clock, what's it doing dropping 12 dropping, one dropping. Now going into two o'clock on a Friday, |
| 418 | 01:13:36 --> 01:13:50 | you're in the latter portions of the daily range. We've already seen the manipulation the profit release portion of the run relative equal low sell side |
| 419 | 01:13:50 --> 01:14:03 | is taken now time, what are we doing? We're going to consolidate off of the low pull off the well consolidate news you're close, we have open high low close |
| 420 | 01:14:03 --> 01:14:13 | power three all around the element of that event at 10 o'clock. Power three is not limited to the daily range, you can look at it on a fractal basis. So |
| 421 | 01:14:13 --> 01:14:23 | everything that you look at in terms of price, every range can be utilized as power three. There is an accumulation phase, a manipulation phase, a profit |
| 422 | 01:14:23 --> 01:14:35 | relation portion where the biggest portion of the run whether it be higher or lower, and then the clothes where it comes off at that extreme. Can you see that |
| 423 | 01:14:35 --> 01:14:51 | opening rally drop close, close is not on the low to open is not equal with the high. It's very cumbersome sometimes as a mentor, especially with so many |
| 424 | 01:14:51 --> 01:15:03 | different languages to convey certain things and the more I talk and if I talk about things that have a slang A term that many of you that are outside the |
| 425 | 01:15:03 --> 01:15:11 | United States may not be familiar with. These are things that I wish I could avoid doing. But because I'm here live, I don't have a filter, obviously, you |
| 426 | 01:15:11 --> 01:15:24 | can hear. Sometimes, I don't convey things as clearly or succinctly enough for the folks that are outside the English language. But I'm going to say the next |
| 427 | 01:15:25 --> 01:15:34 | few things as clear as I possibly can. So that way, when YouTube does the compression, and creates the transcript for this live stream, every translation |
| 428 | 01:15:34 --> 01:15:48 | can be seen the show and hopefully get what it is, I'm trying to say. Every price run every movement in price action, whether it goes up to go down or goes |
| 429 | 01:15:48 --> 01:16:02 | down to go up, every single one of those occurrences, every single one of those examples, is a framework of my power of three concept. So if you know what's |
| 430 | 01:16:02 --> 01:16:16 | about to happen, your mindset should be okay, it's going up to go down. So that means I want to watch how price will behave with that in mind. Opposite, if it's |
| 431 | 01:16:16 --> 01:16:25 | going down to go up, I'm going to be looking at the opening. Or when I'm seeing the pattern form right before it drops to create the buy signal, I'm treating |
| 432 | 01:16:25 --> 01:16:34 | that as the open and manipulation, then the profit relief release portion of that move will be the expansion higher. And then at some point, when it reaches |
| 433 | 01:16:34 --> 01:16:45 | a target, I expected to pull off of that because of the time element. So all those things together, will start having a better effect on you being able to |
| 434 | 01:16:45 --> 01:16:55 | read price action, it's not limited to a daily candlestick, because daily, a daily candlestick is simply one interval of measuring the fluctuations of price |
| 435 | 01:16:55 --> 01:17:11 | action. But there's ways of manipulating price in different timeframes that are not many times even referred to buy other people. And by having the exercise of |
| 436 | 01:17:11 --> 01:17:31 | going through timeframes that are not classic. Okay, what do I mean by that? Like a seven second chart. Okay, a three and a half hour chart, you might not |
| 437 | 01:17:31 --> 01:17:41 | see an inefficiency on the four hour chart, you might not see an inefficiency on an hourly chart. But what happens if you see it on a two and a half hour or |
| 438 | 01:17:41 --> 01:17:52 | three hour chart, or a three and a quarter hour chart? See if you understand a narrative, you understand the market is trying to do something specific to get |
| 439 | 01:17:52 --> 01:18:04 | to a destination, whether it be higher or lower in price, it's going up or down to go to liquidity above the marketplace, or below the marketplace. Or if there |
| 440 | 01:18:04 --> 01:18:14 | is no run for the liquidity sake. It's going up to trade up into like it did here. It's rating. The buy stops above here, but it's trading into this |
| 441 | 01:18:14 --> 01:18:27 | inefficiency. It's so it's not randomly reaching up there. Clearly, because I outlined it yesterday and told you I was gonna go there. And then I told you |
| 442 | 01:18:27 --> 01:18:38 | what was going to happen once it did. And it did. How can it be random? How can it be conjecture? It isn't. It's based on the things I'm teaching you. But you |
| 443 | 01:18:38 --> 01:18:49 | can't learn all these things and appreciate what's required in you practicing it. And the time that it's green required for you to learn it. By just simply |
| 444 | 01:18:49 --> 01:18:57 | talking about one time in a short little video, there's no way there's no way anyone can convey it and adequately teach it properly. In a shorter capacity, |
| 445 | 01:18:57 --> 01:19:07 | the bandwidth needs to be broader for you to be able to receive all the details and the subtle nuances that's going to help you trust it. Because in fact, I've |
| 446 | 01:19:07 --> 01:19:19 | already said these things on baby pips, and 2010 2011 2012 I said that I said it in the short, short form. And not many people learned when I was doing it that |
| 447 | 01:19:19 --> 01:19:20 | way. |
| 448 | 01:19:21 --> 01:19:30 | So when I teach I'm teaching it like I'm teaching it to myself at 20 years old. I don't give a fuck if you don't like how long it is. I don't care I don't |
| 449 | 01:19:30 --> 01:19:38 | personally give a shit. If you think I should be doing it short. I don't care. Because I know what I'm doing is the right way of doing it. It's giving you |
| 450 | 01:19:38 --> 01:19:48 | every aspect because I want to make sure that you know there's no excuse you can come back and say but you didn't teach me bullshit I taught and I gave all the |
| 451 | 01:19:48 --> 01:19:56 | details so that way when these questions that you don't see coming in your learning already know what questions you're going to ask. I already know where |
| 452 | 01:19:56 --> 01:20:04 | you're gonna get sticking points and and struggling I know and that's When I'm talking to you the way I'm talking to you, I want you to understand it, I want |
| 453 | 01:20:04 --> 01:20:13 | you to succeed. I want you to get this, I want you to, if I didn't want you to understand it, if I didn't want you to understand exactly how to walk out there |
| 454 | 01:20:13 --> 01:20:23 | eventually and not need to ever come back to this YouTube fucking channel. I wouldn't be pouring this much emphasis and effort and time into it, I want to |
| 455 | 01:20:23 --> 01:20:34 | make sure that you have no excuses why you couldn't do it. And no one's going to call me fucking lazy, because I'm making sure that you have every thing that you |
| 456 | 01:20:34 --> 01:20:48 | can have as an arsenal a rhyme and reason why to trust it. That you can see it repeating over and over and over again, these characteristics they repeat. And |
| 457 | 01:20:48 --> 01:20:55 | unless I keep pointing them out, and beating it in your head saying, Look, do you see that that's happening for a reason? Do you see it, you see how it's |
| 458 | 01:20:55 --> 01:21:06 | behaving? You see how it's delivering price, why it's doing that? Repetition builds recognition. You cannot recognize it on the hard right edge over here, |
| 459 | 01:21:06 --> 01:21:16 | when the candlestick hasn't started forming yet. You can't see it there until you've seen it so many times on the left side. And working with it and testing |
| 460 | 01:21:16 --> 01:21:26 | it, and back testing and seeing is it valid? Does it repeat. And there's no truer form of understanding it than me getting out here live in front of 30,000 |
| 461 | 01:21:26 --> 01:21:35 | people sitting there in front of all of you cutting up with you talking. Did you hear any kind of anxiety? I mean, yesterday? No, I knew what the fuck was going |
| 462 | 01:21:35 --> 01:21:43 | to happen. Okay, I knew exactly what was going to happen. And I walked you through it gingerly. That's not arrogance. I'm just telling you. Some of you |
| 463 | 01:21:43 --> 01:21:52 | waste so much time worrying about what if it stops working? What if it doesn't? What if it doesn't stop working? And you fucked around and wasted time worrying |
| 464 | 01:21:52 --> 01:22:04 | about something that's never gonna happen. And you could have been making money, helping your family, helping your ends get meet your your bills get paid? It's |
| 465 | 01:22:04 --> 01:22:16 | fascinating to see how many people have this being laid in your hands for free? For free? I could stop and put a PayPal link up and get millions of fucking |
| 466 | 01:22:16 --> 01:22:27 | dollars a month again. And you're arguing with me? I don't understand it. Like I'm literally laying it in your hands for free and you're still armwrestling me? |
| 467 | 01:22:28 --> 01:22:41 | I don't get it. But anyway. A 15 minute timeframe. Okay, the market trades up into inefficiency to taking the buy side, we have a shift in market structure |
| 468 | 01:22:41 --> 01:22:50 | here. Breaks lower. Where is the fair pay gap that formed after the shift to market treasure? Is it up in here? There is no right. So where's the first fair |
| 469 | 01:22:50 --> 01:23:03 | value? There? So you have a fair value gap and a breaker coupled together? You have a lot of narrative there because when to buy sigh? What's going to reach |
| 470 | 01:23:03 --> 01:23:18 | for? Relatively koulos Were they swept yet here? Did it get to it here? No. So there's range. Fair Vega? Is it going to close the entire range? Preferably, we |
| 471 | 01:23:18 --> 01:23:25 | don't want to see it do that. Oh, here he goes. He's talking to hindsight. It's perfect. You can see it. Look, the watch. The live stream is where I'm talking |
| 472 | 01:23:25 --> 01:23:33 | about before it happens. On a one minute chart. We're talking about fitting a candlestick here. We want to see this stay open partially why? Because that |
| 473 | 01:23:33 --> 01:23:43 | would act as what a breakaway gap. It means it's going to indicate that it's really heavy. And that term means it's bearish. It really bearish it's likely to |
| 474 | 01:23:43 --> 01:23:57 | not want to go higher. And any attempt to try to go up will be stifled or limited like this is here. And you can look at how price action here ICT talks |
| 475 | 01:23:57 --> 01:24:07 | to me their words in these live streams. Listen, I know I'm going to repent when I'm done. I hate it I can't stand I do it. I wish I couldn't do it but not |
| 476 | 01:24:07 --> 01:24:17 | talking about the Bible. I never reach for those words in an interesting casket encroachment, small little Mohawk above that right here you see that? How many |
| 477 | 01:24:17 --> 01:24:26 | times have we seen it so far? Just today talking about price. Interesting, isn't it? To get that price and futures it's gotta go what it's gotta go above it by |
| 478 | 01:24:26 --> 01:24:37 | at least the tick the bid the ask is separated by what that one ticket one, one ticket price. So 4349 and a quarter. What's the high up here? upper left hand |
| 479 | 01:24:37 --> 01:24:57 | corner? What's the high of that candle? 43 49.752 tix, that's reasonable. It's reasonable. Are you going to freak out? Because you went and sold short here and |
| 480 | 01:24:57 --> 01:25:03 | it's running up to here. Chances are if you're brand new, you don't How to Read price action. You have been around long enough, you haven't been back testing. |
| 481 | 01:25:03 --> 01:25:13 | And you're not trading with the idea that the stop loss needs to be above this candles high. What? That's what I teach. That's, that's what I'm teaching you. |
| 482 | 01:25:14 --> 01:25:23 | But I can't trade that with 15 contracts on my top step combine well, fucking Hello, you're not supposed to be doing it anyway. Why can't you get comfortable |
| 483 | 01:25:23 --> 01:25:34 | trading with one micro for a little while one micro one $5 per point futures contract and build your experience off of that. Because if you can be |
| 484 | 01:25:34 --> 01:25:46 | consistently profitable doing that and make $100 with that, you're making 20 handles 20 Fucking handles, that is enormous. If you can consistently do that a |
| 485 | 01:25:46 --> 01:25:55 | few times a week, let alone just one one time a week, it's still beaten up, anybody out there that's classically trained to be a trader, most of them fail, |
| 486 | 01:25:55 --> 01:26:04 | they can't see it. Because you're rushing to get to the big payout money that comes easily. When you do all the groundwork of doing what it is necessary in |
| 487 | 01:26:04 --> 01:26:12 | the beginning, take the money out of it, take that aspect away from it, and get good at reading price. Because once you can do this, and you can see it |
| 488 | 01:26:12 --> 01:26:24 | happening before it happens. And it's systematic and you can trust it, the process is not being too stressful for you. It's something you're comfortable in |
| 489 | 01:26:24 --> 01:26:31 | your skin while you're doing it. If you're not comfortable in your skin while you're trading. There's several warning signs there. Number one, you're over |
| 490 | 01:26:31 --> 01:26:40 | leveraging, too. You probably aren't trading with a model. You're gambling right now you're just doing something pushing the button. Or you took somebody else's |
| 491 | 01:26:40 --> 01:26:47 | advice as a signal. And you don't know what the fuck they're doing it for. You're just hoping and praying because now you're religious that they did it |
| 492 | 01:26:47 --> 01:26:58 | right. And when they win Euro ace, look at that trade who were balling i Five yet. And when they lose, and they do it wrong, you're quiet or complaining, oh, |
| 493 | 01:26:58 --> 01:27:06 | this market sell and so and so and so but you'll be quick to follow that person's signal again, you'll do all that effort of making sure you show up in |
| 494 | 01:27:06 --> 01:27:14 | their live streams and show up to their Twitter feed posts and go into their discord go into their telegram channels, and fucking watch them lose. That takes |
| 495 | 01:27:14 --> 01:27:26 | effort. Well fucking done, well done, you're consistently doing the wrong shit. All I'm asking you to do is move the dial just a little bit and start doing the |
| 496 | 01:27:26 --> 01:27:34 | things I'm telling you to do and avoid the things that you should be avoiding. And put that same effort, that same amount of effort. Put that into just trying |
| 497 | 01:27:34 --> 01:27:45 | to make this work for you. I swear to you, you will see the results you're looking for. You will see it it'll become infectious. And it'll feed you and |
| 498 | 01:27:45 --> 01:27:54 | you'll be like, I want more. I want more. That's why our community is a bunch of fucking savages. That's why we are savages. That's why every other community has |
| 499 | 01:27:54 --> 01:28:00 | an issue with us. Because we love what we're doing. We're passionate we know we can kick the fuck and share these markets and nothing else can touch us. There's |
| 500 | 01:28:00 --> 01:28:09 | nothing close to this. There's nothing remotely close to what we do here. Nothing else can compare nothing. I baited I begged and pleaded please come out |
| 501 | 01:28:09 --> 01:28:15 | here and fucking show me that I don't know what the fuck I'm doing. Because I will literally run circles around your fucking ass and nobody ever fucking does |
| 502 | 01:28:15 --> 01:28:24 | it. Why? Because they see me smashing the fuck out. They see me on every fucking tick on one minute candlesticks and take a 10,000 I was 15,018 Fucking |
| 503 | 01:28:24 --> 01:28:35 | 1000 30,000 Call fucking things. These things don't fucking to happen by randomness. That's not fucking random. That is absolutely cool calculated |
| 504 | 01:28:35 --> 01:28:54 | mechanic. inaction in its transferable knowledge, you can learn to do this, you can be a quiet, gentlemanly, eloquent person on social media, YouTube, if that's |
| 505 | 01:28:54 --> 01:29:06 | what you want to be. Or you could be a barbarian and go out there and smash everything and say Come at me bro. I'm not trying to encourage that. But some of |
| 506 | 01:29:06 --> 01:29:13 | you want to do that. And if you do it I'll be watching you. Everybody's gonna bring their personality into it. |
| 507 | 01:29:16 --> 01:29:25 | But nobody can say this stuff doesn't work. Nobody can do that. Now. Nobody can do it. Nobody can say it's unprofitable. Nobody can make any money because I |
| 508 | 01:29:25 --> 01:29:36 | have the largest community online with the receipts showing it works. And I'm not trying to be adversarial to any of you that are selling stuff or trying to |
| 509 | 01:29:36 --> 01:29:45 | do mentorships or teaching whatever it is that you use. But I have to talk this way sometimes because I get inundated with people all the time given me some |
| 510 | 01:29:45 --> 01:29:53 | Mickey Mouse bullshit arguments about this person said this about you what do you think? I think they're full of shit. If they could trade better, they prove |
| 511 | 01:29:53 --> 01:30:00 | it. If they get if they want to make documentaries make documentaries about the things I'm doing live how I'm trading with my fucking money. I'm calling the |
| 512 | 01:30:00 --> 01:30:08 | markets beforehand. And it happens. Where's the arguments and documentaries about the students that are making almost millions of dollars now? Millionaires, |
| 513 | 01:30:08 --> 01:30:15 | I'm making fucking millionaires. Where's the documentary saying that's not happening? Because it's happening. It's fucking happening. Okay? For years, I've |
| 514 | 01:30:15 --> 01:30:21 | sat out here and I've taught and taught and taught improved, improved improved, I can let me go up into your fucking house trade live in front of you, and |
| 515 | 01:30:21 --> 01:30:29 | you'll still critique me the fuck out of here. So let's go over to MQ and wrap this up because I got a Twitter space to get to I got some shit get off my |
| 516 | 01:30:29 --> 01:30:42 | chest. I'm warmed up now. What's the Twitter space? You don't want to hear it? Trust me? All right to daily chart. ICTs YouTube channel has been hacked? Who is |
| 517 | 01:30:42 --> 01:30:53 | this guy talking? This isn't the guy we hear in the videos. Yep, this is the guy that gets filtered out. So that way, I can sound a little bit more refined. But |
| 518 | 01:30:53 --> 01:31:07 | when I'm live, I can swing on both ends of the spectrum. Alright, so when NASDAQ in contrast to what I was talking about for ES, I did mention on es that I did |
| 519 | 01:31:07 --> 01:31:17 | not want to see the relative equal highs that these two candles made. But I did say I wanted to see it for NASDAQ. Now why did I say that? They're thinking |
| 520 | 01:31:17 --> 01:31:29 | about that, that it crossed your mind as to why I would have said that. Because es was the weaker of the two indices, that means it's more likely it's more apt |
| 521 | 01:31:29 --> 01:31:41 | to reach for its lower targets are no words In plain terms, it's easier for ES to drop than it is to go up. Right now under the current market structure. |
| 522 | 01:31:42 --> 01:31:52 | Everything that's in play as the as the ES and NASDAQ was going up. We talked about NASDAQ being the higher leader, or while we were bullish. And we were |
| 523 | 01:31:52 --> 01:32:04 | bullish all through here. I was calling NASDAQ upside leader. That leader aspect is still in play. Because we're inside of this large range here. When we lose |
| 524 | 01:32:04 --> 01:32:15 | this definitively below these lows here, then NASDAQ will become decidedly weaker, it will start changing its characteristic as the leader, then now the |
| 525 | 01:32:15 --> 01:32:22 | leader to the downside, it'll start accelerating beyond what ES will do. That's, that's the train of thought I'm holding, I'm trying to convey that to you. Now. |
| 526 | 01:32:22 --> 01:32:31 | That's all part of six SR concept that that part, I'm kind of reserving for the book. Because as soon as I teach something new, immediately, somebody's putting |
| 527 | 01:32:31 --> 01:32:39 | the video out. And they're putting a small little book together on Amazon, and you're trying to get ahead of me, and putting it in, in print first. That's why |
| 528 | 01:32:39 --> 01:32:47 | a lot of the things I teach is abbreviated, they're just introductions. So when I release my books, the things that they don't know that they heard, rushed and |
| 529 | 01:32:47 --> 01:32:57 | put into print will be incomplete. And while it's interesting to see dozens of books written about me and or my concepts, it's a little unfortunate, because |
| 530 | 01:32:58 --> 01:33:06 | they're not accurate. There, it creates a lot of buzz around me. And that's cool, I guess. But unfortunately, the readers of those books aren't going to get |
| 531 | 01:33:06 --> 01:33:17 | the intended message or concept that I have as the author. But you'll have it from mine. But I talked about how the NASDAQ I wanted to see it trade about |
| 532 | 01:33:17 --> 01:33:27 | these and then trade into this inefficiency up in here. And we saw that on Friday. So Wednesday created the low of the week after reaching into the |
| 533 | 01:33:27 --> 01:33:36 | relative equal lows, which was our target author here. And the quarterly shift target is digging into this inefficiency. So while I don't believe that we're |
| 534 | 01:33:36 --> 01:33:46 | done doing that it's usually right about now people are starting to think this guy was absolutely going bonkers a minute ago, and they'll listen to him. He's |
| 535 | 01:33:46 --> 01:34:02 | back to being Mr. Rogers. Bob Ross again. It's, it's my life, man. So this is the quarterly shift, when we were up here, I said we were going to run this high |
| 536 | 01:34:02 --> 01:34:10 | there to go lower, the quarterly shift was down here. Price did in fact do that. Don't take my word for because I'm saying it here. Go look at the videos and the |
| 537 | 01:34:10 --> 01:34:18 | live streams and the commentary videos I was doing that a time and date stamp I had, I don't have the ability to go back and edit them. So they're there for you |
| 538 | 01:34:18 --> 01:34:33 | to hold. Hold me to the fire. Did I say that? Did it happen? Go back and see it. We just poked our head into this area here. Okay, so we've done this much. We've |
| 539 | 01:34:33 --> 01:34:46 | moved this far into that range. So what's left this. So while this is completely reasonable, I have not abandon the idea that we're going to go down here and |
| 540 | 01:34:46 --> 01:34:59 | trade deeper because the ES can go back to that chart real quick. on the daily chart, it has done its respective full inefficiency here. So look at the date |
| 541 | 01:34:59 --> 01:35:17 | here. The June 2, and the June 1, now go back to NASDAQ. And we have that the inefficiency or it is on May 26, and 25th. So this inefficiency has just now |
| 542 | 01:35:17 --> 01:35:32 | been traded to here. Whereas, yes, is satisfied a run for lower discount inefficiency, NASDAQ had to get to this to trade for that purpose of going to |
| 543 | 01:35:32 --> 01:35:44 | sell side, or sell stock below these relatively equal lows, because smooth edges like to be made jagged, this was a little bit too shallow of a run below, in my |
| 544 | 01:35:44 --> 01:35:57 | opinion, you know, if it's going to have this big, smooth area and this gap by this one single candle, and then you have all this run up. This in my mind is |
| 545 | 01:35:57 --> 01:36:09 | too anemic, it's not enough to satisfy the fact that, yeah, there was probably some cell stops that were on a large fun level attack there, that's fine. But |
| 546 | 01:36:09 --> 01:36:20 | this is in my mind, just going up to take out the trailed by stops that are here and retreated into this inefficiency. So accomplish two things, it took a run up |
| 547 | 01:36:20 --> 01:36:28 | into stopping out anyone that had a trailing stop loss, because after this big candle here, and this candle opened up that day, everyone that had a trailing |
| 548 | 01:36:28 --> 01:36:36 | stop loss up in this area, or in this area here, they wrote it right to this high, we're just above it. And now on Friday, they're going which was what I was |
| 549 | 01:36:36 --> 01:36:51 | building the narrative around when I was talking about all through the the early portions of the livestream on the 29th of September 28, three, so let's go into |
| 550 | 01:36:51 --> 01:36:51 | an hourly chart. |
| 551 | 01:36:56 --> 01:36:57 | All right, and |
| 552 | 01:37:05 --> 01:37:07 | that inefficiency on a daily |
| 553 | 01:37:14 --> 01:37:21 | that's the four hour here. That's that gap. So if you're looking at the daily chart, what's it framed on? It's the four hour chart, that phire got that |
| 554 | 01:37:21 --> 01:37:34 | candles low on September 20 10pm. And the high of the September 21, at 6pm is high. And this again is a four hour chart. So that's that's that inefficiency |
| 555 | 01:37:34 --> 01:37:44 | range that was shown here. And then the buy stops here framed on that swing high and can be easily seen here on the 60 minute chart. So you can see how the four |
| 556 | 01:37:44 --> 01:37:56 | hour doesn't show a fair Vega. It was in concert with what the IDI was teaching a little while ago while saying you want to get comfortable with going through |
| 557 | 01:37:56 --> 01:38:05 | timeframes that are not classically used, like four hours, a classically used timeframe. I mean, everybody does technical analysis less than a daily chart, |
| 558 | 01:38:05 --> 01:38:15 | they're familiar with a four hour chart, you might not use a four hour chart a lot. But when I go through timeframes, like I'm not just limiting it to daily, |
| 559 | 01:38:15 --> 01:38:32 | four hour hour 15 Five, one alt you know all that I'm looking at timeframes that are outside the norm, like, like I was saying earlier, you there's four quarters |
| 560 | 01:38:32 --> 01:38:42 | or or 15 minute intervals inside of a 60 minute chart. So one candlestick on an hourly chart is for 15 minute candlesticks. But what happens when you look at |
| 561 | 01:38:43 --> 01:38:54 | 615 minute candlestick durations, you're going to see inefficiencies that won't necessarily be visible on the other timeframes, whether it be the quarter, the |
| 562 | 01:38:54 --> 01:39:05 | four quarters of a 15 minute inside an ally range, or on the basis of a 60 minute ally candlestick chart. So I'm trying to inspire you to look inside price |
| 563 | 01:39:05 --> 01:39:15 | at different intervals that are not classically used. So that way, you'll see inefficiencies that most everyone else are just simply not aware of. And it'll |
| 564 | 01:39:15 --> 01:39:30 | give you a better feel for what it's really reaching for. Because the algorithm is extremely complex, and it's cycling through the myriad of timeframes. Looking |
| 565 | 01:39:30 --> 01:39:42 | at the inefficiencies between second consecutive candlesticks, okay, we see them as a measurement of time. The algorithm works from the higher timeframes down to |
| 566 | 01:39:42 --> 01:39:49 | the lower timeframes, and then it cycles right back up again. Because it's computer because it's an algorithm is running a macro. It's a script, it's |
| 567 | 01:39:49 --> 01:39:57 | constantly looking for these. And that's what's going on. It's not buying and selling pressure. You're gonna sit and tell me that what we were doing yesterday |
| 568 | 01:39:57 --> 01:40:05 | live when I was telling you those little tiny little Minute discrepancies between three candles that create a volume imbalance or a fair value got that |
| 569 | 01:40:05 --> 01:40:14 | just random buying and selling pressure happened to align with those very specific turning points right to the tick. So you're gonna argue, it takes more, |
| 570 | 01:40:14 --> 01:40:26 | it takes more faith to believe that bullshit than it is that this is all rigged, it's controlled, it had an author, and all these things, these factors are |
| 571 | 01:40:26 --> 01:40:35 | repeating over and over and over again, if the markets were, in fact random. And we don't know what the buying and selling pressure is going to do. How could it |
| 572 | 01:40:35 --> 01:40:45 | be possible that we, as students with this mindset can go in and anticipate these very things happening to this degree of precision? That's unfathomable. It |
| 573 | 01:40:45 --> 01:40:57 | would be impossible. Randomness would cancel that out. It would literally cancel that out. But yet it doesn't, it supports it. And that's why I tell everyone, |
| 574 | 01:40:57 --> 01:41:03 | they first come here, and they want to argue with me and wrestle with you know, I'm from Goldman. Good. Well, now I'm coming out here and I'll show you what you |
| 575 | 01:41:03 --> 01:41:11 | don't know. The bottom line is this there is an algorithm whether you want to subscribe to it or not, it is and it's not something to be afraid of. It's not |
| 576 | 01:41:11 --> 01:41:22 | something to be scared of. It's advantageous for you to align your thought process with that. But you know, it justifies why they're not successful because |
| 577 | 01:41:22 --> 01:41:30 | it's random, right? How can you how can you fault someone when they're not consistently profitable or consistently accurate with their analysis when they |
| 578 | 01:41:30 --> 01:41:38 | subscribe and they try to promote the idea that the market is random that's a perfect excuse. That's a perfect excuse that's a perfect out in an argument. You |
| 579 | 01:41:38 --> 01:41:48 | don't have to ever listen to anybody be critical of you. But I'm inviting you be critical of me be critical you watch me on our live stream it you watch me and I |
| 580 | 01:41:48 --> 01:41:56 | give you an analysis you watch when I tweet these things I never delete a fucking single tweet ever. And it delivers all the time. Nobody can be this |
| 581 | 01:41:56 --> 01:42:08 | lucky nobody nothing random this right alright, enough enough. I'm having too much fun today. You guys need caffeine to get this high and hopped up I don't |
| 582 | 01:42:11 --> 01:42:22 | the markets are McAfee Alright, so anyway with the market trades up into that for our fair value. Just like falls just short of consequent encouragement but |
| 583 | 01:42:22 --> 01:42:32 | that's okay. Crush the midpoint. And I like to do this like oh highlight over top the rectangle I'm drawn you can see that box right here that little tab |
| 584 | 01:42:32 --> 01:42:40 | that's halfway so you can see it just false just sort of that that's okay. Doesn't need to go there. It's better for it did not go there and stay below it. |
| 585 | 01:42:40 --> 01:42:54 | Why? Why is it why is it beneficial for the market to do that? The trade not to it and remain below it because it indicates it's what heavy and when the market |
| 586 | 01:42:54 --> 01:43:00 | rallied up there and a lot of you want to know how did I know that enter right into that what did I do I'm going to teach it did you gotta get through all the |
| 587 | 01:43:01 --> 01:43:12 | the boring stuff. I like to see all the guys tap out early on the weak ones that I don't like to give all the goods in the beginning of the video. Alright, so |
| 588 | 01:43:12 --> 01:43:20 | the market rallies up into that takes the buy side out let me scrunch this up real quick and say this was the buy side worried about the high that means |
| 589 | 01:43:20 --> 01:43:29 | anyone's short they would have a protective buy stop there. But the for our inefficiency up here. It's not just liquidity it's going to reach for because if |
| 590 | 01:43:29 --> 01:43:36 | it was just that the market would just bump that high a little bit and then go down. It's not resistance because if it was resistance, it would just hit that |
| 591 | 01:43:36 --> 01:43:48 | high or just a little bit above it and go down it didn't do that. That went to where I teach you it's going to go price will go up for one of two reasons okay. |
| 592 | 01:43:49 --> 01:44:03 | It's going to go up to take out a high or relative equal highs for the purposes of engaging the buy stock or buy side liquidity above that high or highs or and |
| 593 | 01:44:03 --> 01:44:17 | in this in this case here it does both trades up to reprice to a inefficiency which allows for engineering of liquidity this high now right here there's buy |
| 594 | 01:44:17 --> 01:44:29 | stocks thirsting read about that. I don't need a book map. I don't need a level two all that stuff. They are crutches but level two is a gimmick. You can spoof |
| 595 | 01:44:29 --> 01:44:45 | level two okay have we stuck and remember that guys last name is dragged me nuts but anyway the folks that promote the idea or try to argue with me in my comment |
| 596 | 01:44:45 --> 01:44:55 | section or Tweet to me some dope bullshit about you know, you talk about how you're reading, order flow, show me your order book, show me your level two |
| 597 | 01:44:55 --> 01:45:09 | data. I'm doing all of this literally Just what timing price to the tick precision? Level two data, all those orders you see flashing on all that stuff? |
| 598 | 01:45:10 --> 01:45:20 | Those orders are not necessarily really they're going to be there. They're just being spoofed. Okay? When you watch those level two data, the buy orders, the |
| 599 | 01:45:20 --> 01:45:32 | sell orders that are all different prices, and you watch that ladder. What you don't realize is you're being primed. Okay. Everything about these markets is |
| 600 | 01:45:32 --> 01:45:41 | just like a casino. You're going to a casino. In a casino, there are no clocks on the wall. And there's no windows. So you can see that you've been there all |
| 601 | 01:45:41 --> 01:45:52 | day long. Now it's daytime, no longer it's nighttime. They want you to lose sight of how much time you're there. Because a sober mind would be like, You |
| 602 | 01:45:52 --> 01:46:00 | know what? I need to take a break. I'm losing too much money and then get out of here for a little while. They want you to get caught up in that loser cycle. |
| 603 | 01:46:00 --> 01:46:14 | Okay, that's what prop firms do. That's what brokers do. They want you to lose sight of your reservations. They want them lowered. Sure, honey, we're gonna |
| 604 | 01:46:14 --> 01:46:24 | bring you a beautifully clad woman barely dressed, come over to you. And they're going to bring you your drink. We want you intoxicated get smoothed out rough, |
| 605 | 01:46:24 --> 01:46:34 | rough edges. Nobody should have that. Get get nice and cozy with this scotch and soda. Put some money in it, have some fun, you might get rich, you might make |
| 606 | 01:46:34 --> 01:46:46 | some money. How often does that happen often. So when we look at the marketplace, and you're looking at it through the lens of level two, Dom, it's |
| 607 | 01:46:46 --> 01:47:01 | done or not done by the way that the market, that ladder is priming you. Both sides of the equation, whether you're bullish or bearish, they see whatever they |
| 608 | 01:47:01 --> 01:47:06 | want to fuck and seeing that if you're bearish on the hungry, you can probably hurt my stomach there. |
| 609 | 01:47:08 --> 01:47:16 | If you're bullish, you're gonna make every excuse, why is going to reach for that number. Because there's a lot of orders up there at that level right there. |
| 610 | 01:47:17 --> 01:47:25 | But what happens when you're wrong and it goes lower? The people that were right at the same time that was looking for lower prices there they're saying to |
| 611 | 01:47:25 --> 01:47:35 | themselves, it's going to go down to that level there because look, there's so many orders. They're fucking both showing the same thing. But they're allowing |
| 612 | 01:47:35 --> 01:47:43 | for you to bring your own interpretation. And those orders are not all real. And you're coming at me with this Mickey Mouse fucking argument. Show me your level |
| 613 | 01:47:43 --> 01:47:55 | two data. Show me your discipline. Yeah, show me you get into the tick accuracy before it happens live and then making $13,000 You show me that? Because I don't |
| 614 | 01:47:55 --> 01:48:04 | see it happening. I see every attempt in a live stream trading with real money losing. That's what I see. That's what everybody else is saying. Make a |
| 615 | 01:48:04 --> 01:48:24 | documentary about that Vinnie. Level two is a gimmick priming. Okay, priming is it little children's game that was done many times when I was growing up. It's |
| 616 | 01:48:24 --> 01:48:40 | done in different different ways and such but they would ask you like when I asked you this question every time you answer you say white okay. What color |
| 617 | 01:48:40 --> 01:48:54 | snow? White? What color is the surrounding surface of your eye but not your pupil? White? Okay, with that said, I'm gonna ask you a simple question. What is |
| 618 | 01:48:54 --> 01:49:08 | a Cal drink? Most of you just started thinking or singing out loud milk. They don't they produce milk. They drink water. That's priming. Same thing with this. |
| 619 | 01:49:09 --> 01:49:22 | Every time I asked you this question. You say sharp. Okay, that's H O P. What is my wife liked to do? Shop? Was my daughter like to do shop? Who would you like |
| 620 | 01:49:22 --> 01:49:31 | to do if you had a whole lot of money shop? Okay, with that said, I'm gonna ask you a simple question. What do you do with a green light? Some of you follow us |
| 621 | 01:49:31 --> 01:49:43 | You said stop. You don't stop at a green light you go. That's priming. I did an example of this in a much more intricate manner. While my soundcloud account, |
| 622 | 01:49:44 --> 01:49:55 | the illusion of choice. And I it's still I still get emails from people saying how am i How did you do that? That's priming. Priming is building a rapport with |
| 623 | 01:49:55 --> 01:50:09 | a an audience member if you're a magician if you You are a hypnotist. You can prime the person in hypnotism. You can do a lot of things. And already I can |
| 624 | 01:50:09 --> 01:50:15 | hear all the gears turning on all the people that hate me. They're thinking, okay, that's how he's doing. He's hypnotizing his audience. He's hypnotizing his |
| 625 | 01:50:15 --> 01:50:26 | audience. He's brainwashing. Oh, man, whatever, whatever gets your ad revenue, right? Go do your thing. Christmas is coming. You kids need to have toys, do |
| 626 | 01:50:26 --> 01:50:33 | whatever you got to do. If you got to use my name for the shit on YouTube. Go ahead. I don't give a shit. I'm still winning. The bottom line is level two data |
| 627 | 01:50:33 --> 01:50:43 | is priming. Okay, it's priming. There is no advantage. There's zero advantage of having that but it looks fucking cool, doesn't it? If you show your screens, the |
| 628 | 01:50:43 --> 01:50:51 | people and it has that shit flashing on the side, you feel like you're running the enterprise. You're your fucking Captain Picard, right. You know, you're in |
| 629 | 01:50:51 --> 01:51:02 | there. You got all your bells and whistles in front of you. You're commanding this, this fleet of high tech real estate. It's all bullshit. It's all bullshit, |
| 630 | 01:51:02 --> 01:51:10 | open, high, low and close. And what time of day is it? That's it. That's all I'm doing. That's all I'm doing by side liquidity, Southside liquidity |
| 631 | 01:51:10 --> 01:51:20 | inefficiencies. And I'm building a narrative that I outlined yesterday live? No, level two data required? No Orderbook no map both No, none of that horseshit. |
| 632 | 01:51:20 --> 01:51:29 | Okay. Above every single high and below every single low, there's going to be liquidity there. How do you know how big the liquidity is? What timeframe are |
| 633 | 01:51:29 --> 01:51:39 | you looking at? This is an hourly chart, I have a lot of emphasis placed on an hourly chart because it's an integral part of intraday price action because it's |
| 634 | 01:51:39 --> 01:51:50 | a significant time, there's only so many hours in a session. So if you see a high, that's on a 60 minute timeframe, it's going to be significant. It's a, |
| 635 | 01:51:50 --> 01:51:58 | it's a very significant aspect to to determining what level of liquidity you should be focusing on right now. Which is why I gave my son Cameron, he has to |
| 636 | 01:51:58 --> 01:52:10 | aim for an hourly or 15 minimum, I'm sorry, 15 minute minimum pool of liquidity, there has to be something he's aiming for, for either the hourly preferably, or |
| 637 | 01:52:10 --> 01:52:23 | the 15 minute timeframe. So how would you use that information? I'm actually writing a book here today, by the way, in case you haven't noticed. It's audio |
| 638 | 01:52:23 --> 01:52:33 | book. So this was the draw that we were outlining yesterday live, okay. And that was the reason why I'm saying is gonna go up here, but I wasn't limiting it to |
| 639 | 01:52:33 --> 01:52:40 | that. I told you to look past that level. Because I'm not a fucking Support Resistance straighter. We go to it and through it, where's it going to go ICT up |
| 640 | 01:52:40 --> 01:52:52 | into this shaded area? How far can it go, we don't want to see it trade to the half of it and higher, because then it erases its its effectiveness as a |
| 641 | 01:52:52 --> 01:53:00 | indication that it reached up there just to go lower. Because if it went all the way up here to close it, that's a little bit problematic for me, I want to see |
| 642 | 01:53:00 --> 01:53:11 | it go there and stop at or short of the halfway point. If it avoids going into the upper half of it. That's exactly the signature I'm looking for and requiring |
| 643 | 01:53:11 --> 01:53:22 | of that pdra that for our fair Vega, that shaded blue here. That very idea of it not getting to the halfway point, or consequent curtailment of it, it failed to |
| 644 | 01:53:22 --> 01:53:35 | get there. That's what I liked about why I entered. What, that's exactly why I entered because this run up here. When it was running up there, it couldn't jump |
| 645 | 01:53:35 --> 01:53:45 | right to the halfway point. It stopped short of it. That was the very signature I was looking for. And on the very next one minute candle would you watch me |
| 646 | 01:53:45 --> 01:53:56 | record and live it's happening right there. It's not Market Replay. Live execution based on everything I outlined in front of all of you live yesterday. |
| 647 | 01:53:56 --> 01:54:09 | There you go. If that's what we were running the liquidity over here about this high and we can frame how far past that high it can go because we're not support |
| 648 | 01:54:09 --> 01:54:21 | resistance. We're not trading with that bullshit. We're trading into an inefficiency up here. So if I go back and I add I can use those two candles |
| 649 | 01:54:21 --> 01:54:29 | there thank you have one or if I had to go back up to the four hour but I can see you can use these two. That's the halfway point. Okay, I'm going to add the |
| 650 | 01:54:29 --> 01:54:43 | lower I'm sorry, the lower one there. So what I'm showing you is these are the three very specific levels I don't trade and supply and demand zones either |
| 651 | 01:54:43 --> 01:54:53 | that's not a fucking supply zone. Okay, that's not a supply zone is not a supply zone. I don't give a fuck what anybody else calls it. That's not what that is. I |
| 652 | 01:54:53 --> 01:55:04 | do not trade Sam side. It's bullshit. Okay, Online Trading Academy, all that stuff. That's a one under full beginning, it's a beginning. I don't subscribe to |
| 653 | 01:55:04 --> 01:55:13 | that stuff. Everything I teach is fresh, they only teach a fresh zone, and we're in that zone are you going to trade? Who the fuck knows, I know where I'm |
| 654 | 01:55:13 --> 01:55:24 | looking to trade in this area here in using this for our inefficiency that shaded off of a four hour chart. There are three very specific price levels, I'm |
| 655 | 01:55:24 --> 01:55:32 | showing them to you. Okay, now I'm gonna go one step further and give you a chapter in a book on this very topic, okay? You don't want to be here too long. |
| 656 | 01:55:32 --> 01:55:39 | Get the fuck out of here. You want to learn Get the fuck out of here. But this is how you're going to use this information. Okay. Everything that I said |
| 657 | 01:55:39 --> 01:55:49 | yesterday, live, everything that I was explained to you why and where it should reach to. This is the amplification of it. This is the part that experience was |
| 658 | 01:55:50 --> 01:56:03 | telling me I'm waiting for these very things. Midpoint, which is consequent encouragement of that four hour gap, okay? We and I did not, don't want didn't |
| 659 | 01:56:03 --> 01:56:10 | want to see it trade above that. And so in other words, this is what we don't want to see, we don't want to see price trade into this area. |
| 660 | 01:56:25 --> 01:56:39 | This is the stuff people would pay money for. Okay, trust me. That shaded area there that's not blue. When we are looking for it to go up to go down. And it's |
| 661 | 01:56:39 --> 01:56:47 | trading into an inefficiency. This is the logic, okay. This is what the algorithm is doing. This is how people that understand what the algorithm is |
| 662 | 01:56:47 --> 01:56:58 | doing. How they engage with it. The smart money, the real smart money that are not going to be out here like I'm doing it. I'm broke. I'm doing what the fuck I |
| 663 | 01:56:58 --> 01:57:11 | want to do. I don't give a shit. Tell me I can't I will. Over here, price is trading above that buyside liquidity pool here. So in context where your folks |
| 664 | 01:57:11 --> 01:57:24 | that want to screenshot stuff that see your journaling. See how nice I am. I'm doing all the legwork for you. And I love you too. So it's gone to the buy side |
| 665 | 01:57:24 --> 01:57:33 | here but that in inefficiency, that shaded area here, that's for our there are specific price levels, which is the low right here. It's trading to the low |
| 666 | 01:57:33 --> 01:57:42 | there stops short at the low of what the for our inefficiency. That's fucking random. Then the next candle, it does what it trades up into the lower quadrant. |
| 667 | 01:57:42 --> 01:57:53 | But watch watch fails to get to the halfway point. Beautiful. Well, that's exactly what I'm looking for. I'm looking for that. That's the very thing |
| 668 | 01:57:53 --> 01:58:01 | because I don't want to see it run real quick into halfway point in above it. Because then I'm wrong. What would happen if it did that ICT? Would you trade |
| 669 | 01:58:01 --> 01:58:14 | short? No, I'm going to wait for a shift in market structure later on. Model 2022. Something of that effect. Okay. Holy cow. What I just gave you is how you |
| 670 | 01:58:14 --> 01:58:25 | differentiate when you run and trade a turtle suit, which is what you watch me trade live yesterday. That's turtle suit. That's my version rendition of a |
| 671 | 01:58:25 --> 01:58:34 | turtle suit. That is not the street smarts book written by Linda Raschke. And Larry Conners. The inspiration the understanding of stop read. I learned from |
| 672 | 01:58:34 --> 01:58:48 | that book. But what I teach, I caught you fondly. And it's been it's a term of endearment kind of like it's a nod to the influence. And I've never shied away |
| 673 | 01:58:48 --> 01:59:01 | from this. That book helped me understand how to treat a stop hunt. Whereas I never looked at trading with the view of going into the marketplace, trading |
| 674 | 01:59:01 --> 01:59:12 | with a stop loss of someone else as my entry mechanism. I always looked at the stop loss happening to me is a victimizing of me that that was the perception I |
| 675 | 01:59:12 --> 01:59:19 | had of it prior to that. So the paradigm shift, I have my reading that book street smarts, which I think every one of you should have. It's a wonderful |
| 676 | 01:59:19 --> 01:59:29 | book, it gives you the mindset of taking a model that can be extremely simple. And only trading with these conceptual ideas applied to a very small set of |
| 677 | 01:59:29 --> 01:59:40 | rules and sticking to it. Accepting that it's not perfect. And if you do that, regardless of whatever it is, it'll give you the foundation that's required to |
| 678 | 01:59:40 --> 01:59:48 | be a systematically consistently profitable trader. Because you have to have a baseline somewhere right? And I was in there doing all kinds of stuff in that |
| 679 | 01:59:48 --> 01:59:56 | book gave me really simple little strategies. I don't like everything in that book, by the way. You know, I like the anti pattern. When I liked using |
| 680 | 01:59:56 --> 02:00:03 | stochastic I don't like the cast. I don't like any indicator now But it was given me these little things that I could work with and study where I had no |
| 681 | 02:00:03 --> 02:00:10 | idea what to go in and study like many of you, you see all these videos, I have all these tools is terminologies language. And it's overwhelming like, Man, |
| 682 | 02:00:10 --> 02:00:19 | where do I begin, go to model 2022 playlist, it's 41 videos, the first one is kind of like this building your expectations is boring. But if you really want |
| 683 | 02:00:19 --> 02:00:27 | to be a student, listen to it. And that will give you the foundations to go in and start looking for things that repeat every single fucking day. Every day, |
| 684 | 02:00:27 --> 02:00:36 | it's there. And then, if you want to learn a little bit more, watch the video I did for the silver bullets, one video. It's just one of them. And it'll teach |
| 685 | 02:00:36 --> 02:00:46 | you a time based trading element that is very specific. It doesn't have a whole lot of moving parts. But it allows you to go in and start having something that |
| 686 | 02:00:46 --> 02:00:53 | you can measure progress in, you can go in and back test, does it really exist every hour? I mean, I'm sorry, I run it every day between 10 o'clock and five |
| 687 | 02:00:53 --> 02:01:08 | o'clock. Yeah. But when I'm looking for a raid, of buyside, to sell into, which is scary. I know, when you first start trading, it's very, very scary to do |
| 688 | 02:01:08 --> 02:01:19 | that. Because how how do you know it's not going to keep going? Well, that's why you use a stop loss. What? You don't trust it like that? Yeah, that's what 30 |
| 689 | 02:01:19 --> 02:01:31 | years does. 30 years doing something, you get a callus to it. You just don't. You don't feel the same fear and apprehension that you do as a new student. But |
| 690 | 02:01:31 --> 02:01:41 | I'm cognizant of it. I'm sensitive to it. And I teach you how to overcome it. And I do Twitter spaces where I cuss at you because I remember what it was like |
| 691 | 02:01:41 --> 02:01:52 | for me and I get pissed off that people are fighting me when I'm giving you the best advice for free. And I'm proving it real fucking money. And I have a big |
| 692 | 02:01:52 --> 02:02:02 | community with real results with real money. And everybody's ignoring that. It's It's madness. It literally is madness. I have a mental illness. But I think the |
| 693 | 02:02:02 --> 02:02:14 | people that argue and deny this as a bigger mental illness. They're denying the obvious. But the idea of running into liquidity for the sake of fading it, using |
| 694 | 02:02:14 --> 02:02:27 | it as counterparty handshaking with it. Okay. That's what smart money does. I illustrated that to you yesterday. I outlined it. But these three specific price |
| 695 | 02:02:27 --> 02:02:37 | levels is what I was looking for. And the very thing I wanted to see was, number one, do we gravitate towards it? Yes, we do. Do we trade into it? Yes, we do. Do |
| 696 | 02:02:37 --> 02:02:54 | we reach the lower quadrant of it? Yes. Do we trade into the upper half of it? No. It's not short of it. Hello, that's exactly what smart money looks for. |
| 697 | 02:02:55 --> 02:03:03 | That's the waiting point. That's the billboard sign when you're driving down 95. And you're looking for the exit ramp for gasoline, the indicator that hey, this |
| 698 | 02:03:03 --> 02:03:11 | is the time you got to take the initiative, you're low on gas, you gotta go here. It's the prompting, okay, because Smart Money does not have fucking |
| 699 | 02:03:11 --> 02:03:18 | indicators on their chart. They are not looking at level two data. They don't have depth of market ladders. They don't have book maps, they don't have |
| 700 | 02:03:18 --> 02:03:30 | indicators at all on their fucking chart. They're looking at time and price. high frequency trading algorithms are looking for this signature here that |
| 701 | 02:03:31 --> 02:03:41 | engage with the in the algorithm that books price that controls price, it's rigged. It does what it needs to do based on a script. It's like a fucking video |
| 702 | 02:03:41 --> 02:03:49 | game. It has boundaries. It's not going to go here. It's not going to go there. It's going to do everything it's going to do. And in that that range until |
| 703 | 02:03:49 --> 02:03:58 | manual intervention, manual intervention will take it out of autopilot. And then you'll see this massive repricing higher or lower. What does it look like? How |
| 704 | 02:03:58 --> 02:04:17 | does it How does it visible in price action rate announcements, unexpected rate announcements, Non Farm Payroll, CPI all these big red folder events. They are |
| 705 | 02:04:17 --> 02:04:30 | times when they're signaling that hey, the algorithm will do what it's going to do. But these are times when we can when it's advantageous to us to upset |
| 706 | 02:04:30 --> 02:04:39 | sentiment or engineer new sentiment in the marketplace to inspire interest in the market or dissuade folks from being so interested in another market. manual |
| 707 | 02:04:39 --> 02:04:47 | intervention comes in and they will manually reprice to a level and that's why you see these sudden like what the hell just happened. Nothing just moved 100 |
| 708 | 02:04:47 --> 02:04:59 | Plus animals in one minute. Yeah, welcome to a manual intervention. You can't trade that. You can't predict that. You can anticipate the season, the climate, |
| 709 | 02:04:59 --> 02:05:09 | the condition shins where it will materialize. But in fact, every single day, it can happen, they could come out on Monday and do a unexpected rate hike, who |
| 710 | 02:05:09 --> 02:05:15 | says they can't? Who says they won't, with all the shit that's been going on last three years, you don't think they are going to pull some money, mash it, |
| 711 | 02:05:16 --> 02:05:23 | they're going to do crazy shit, okay, that's why your risk needs to be lowered to more tolerable means where that way you're not getting wrecked by any one |
| 712 | 02:05:23 --> 02:05:31 | particular trader event. But you're all trying to push the envelope and try to make it real, real real big so that we can smash it. And the only thing you're |
| 713 | 02:05:31 --> 02:05:44 | finally getting smashed is your equity curve and your accounts blown. There's a right way and a wrong way. So I'm looking at a inefficiency. That is no zone, |
| 714 | 02:05:45 --> 02:05:57 | I'm taking that inefficiency, and I'm dividing it into four equal quadrants, the highest high, the lowest low the midpoint, well, that's three, right. And then |
| 715 | 02:05:57 --> 02:06:05 | you have outside, it's, it's five levels, actually, then it's the lower quadrant of it and the upper quadrant, okay, so it's five very specific levels. But when |
| 716 | 02:06:05 --> 02:06:15 | I'm bearish, I don't want to see the upper half traded into when I'm bullish, I don't want to see the lower half traded into. And if I'm watching a price run at |
| 717 | 02:06:15 --> 02:06:24 | a time on the economic calendar, and it reaches into these inefficiencies. Imagine how hard this would be to communicate in a book by the way, and then not |
| 718 | 02:06:24 --> 02:06:27 | have the example of me doing it live yesterday. |
| 719 | 02:06:28 --> 02:06:38 | It's very, very complex, isn't it. And this is why I didn't write books sooner. Because it takes it takes a lot to to make it understandable. Because if I just |
| 720 | 02:06:38 --> 02:06:46 | tried to do what I feel I would have done if I tried to write a book only, and not do it live and examples where you see me doing it, entering it with a stop |
| 721 | 02:06:46 --> 02:06:53 | loss, managing the positions. That's why I do all those little short little vignettes on Twitter. So that way, you can see that these things repeat. There's |
| 722 | 02:06:53 --> 02:07:03 | a logic behind it, I know how to trade, it can be transferred to you in logic, using the same logic, you can do these types of things too. You won't be |
| 723 | 02:07:03 --> 02:07:11 | perfect, you'll lose money, eventually, you're gonna have losing trades. Everybody hates losing trades. But you have to have something to base this |
| 724 | 02:07:11 --> 02:07:21 | belief in, you have to be able to if if it's believable, you'll spend more time trying to do it, right. And that's why I share the examples. And I try to teach |
| 725 | 02:07:21 --> 02:07:33 | you to trust yourself and allow for that enough time for you to learn how to do it. But the aspect of it not getting to the upper half of that. That's |
| 726 | 02:07:33 --> 02:07:45 | important. That was the indication to me, has nothing to do with a DOM. Nothing to do with a depth of market ladder. That has nothing to do with volume profile. |
| 727 | 02:07:45 --> 02:07:53 | Has nothing to do with Elliot waves, nothing Wycoff nothing supply and demand zone. None of that stuff. It's this. This is what I'm talking about. And I'm |
| 728 | 02:07:53 --> 02:08:05 | challenging you. You will not see this anywhere else until I talked about it. It wasn't in existence, okay. So when I talk about it, and I'm very dogmatic and I |
| 729 | 02:08:05 --> 02:08:13 | sound like I'm bragging and I'm talking down to other traders, I'm defending my position because you have no idea how many times I'm getting emails from people |
| 730 | 02:08:13 --> 02:08:20 | that say, look, I found your YouTube channel. I liked this, but I see this guy saying that you failed four times in the Robins cup. And that's fucking |
| 731 | 02:08:20 --> 02:08:27 | bullshit. I've never failed four times in the Robins cup and I will beat your fucking ass Benny. If you please just get your ass on leaderboard and call me |
| 732 | 02:08:27 --> 02:08:35 | out. You won't do it because you can't fucking trade then E Mini bits Vincent March of Allen, Texas. I will say your fucking name. I do it because you're a |
| 733 | 02:08:35 --> 02:08:51 | little bit rich, motherfucker. Let's go. Caffeinated yet, motherfucker. So the by side here was the attack. The target was inefficiency. The indication that |
| 734 | 02:08:51 --> 02:09:00 | it's turning was the it didn't go to the consequent encouragement. Okay. It failed to go there. So now we can start dropping down to a 15 minute timeframe. |
| 735 | 02:09:00 --> 02:09:14 | But let me go back up to the arrow. I'm sorry. I forgot to mention this point. If okay, if you want to consider using the the idea of the 15 minute and or 60 |
| 736 | 02:09:14 --> 02:09:25 | minute liquidity pools, for drawls for intraday scalps or intraday trading, as soon as it went up into this level here, as soon as it did that, and we're |
| 737 | 02:09:25 --> 02:09:34 | bearish and as I was outlining, I would be in you should be expecting it to do that as a case study to watch it live yesterday. It's as soon as it did this, if |
| 738 | 02:09:34 --> 02:09:48 | it starts to go lower, where would your focus immediately go to sell side? Where would that be resting at that moment? As soon as it did this? Right there. I |
| 739 | 02:09:48 --> 02:09:56 | guess in a way Market Replay would be helpful here because if I could have the candle looking like it was bullish right there and it didn't have this down |
| 740 | 02:09:56 --> 02:10:07 | close candle already there. It would be helpful, but your eyes should drop rate at that low. That's where sellside is. Okay? And then it's this. And then it's |
| 741 | 02:10:07 --> 02:10:19 | this. And then it's this. And you have this inefficiency down here. Okay? So that's how you would note all the liquidity pools. As soon as the engagement |
| 742 | 02:10:19 --> 02:10:31 | have that fair value gap on the four hour, and we get the failure to get to the halfway point. Now, you can do this on higher timeframes. But if I'm trading |
| 743 | 02:10:31 --> 02:10:42 | turtle soup ideas, where I'm selling by stops, I'm using this criteria right here. And my private students did not learn this before today. They're learning |
| 744 | 02:10:42 --> 02:10:52 | it just with you right now. So stop believing these people that are selling you bullshit. Oh, he's here's the unreleased mentorship videos. If you believe that |
| 745 | 02:10:52 --> 02:11:02 | bullshit, you deserve to be you deserve it. You deserve to be fucking conned. Because I've told you, it's for free on my YouTube channel. And I'm teaching for |
| 746 | 02:11:02 --> 02:11:11 | free now. Nothing future selling. I'm not putting a price tag on anything. It's done. And I'm only writing books. So that way it's codified in history that it's |
| 747 | 02:11:11 --> 02:11:30 | my shit. Nobody else did it. Me. And it's a gift. Alright, so anyway, now we can drop down to 15. This was supposed to be a short, short live stream chat, but it |
| 748 | 02:11:30 --> 02:11:38 | does keep going, um, here are all that good. Alright, so when the price runs up, again, it fails to get to the halfway point. That's what this little pink level |
| 749 | 02:11:38 --> 02:11:45 | is here. So we're going to take this lower quadrant level off because it's already too many lines. And it can be confusing. So it fails to get up there on |
| 750 | 02:11:45 --> 02:11:52 | a 15 minute timeframe. You see it reaches up there. And immediately we started to break lower. What's the 15 minute time frame showing you once it gets up |
| 751 | 02:11:52 --> 02:12:08 | here? Where's the first draw and liquidity? That low? Look how fast it goes to it. So yeah, real quick, then we start to chop around in here. Stop would need |
| 752 | 02:12:08 --> 02:12:18 | to be above consequent encroachment. Why that level? Because it's the low of the for our inefficiency. It is the consequent question on that wick. So there's |
| 753 | 02:12:18 --> 02:12:29 | what there's two PD arrays, no, three, this up close candle that closing prices rejection block. So it can punch up here to run above that and then reject price |
| 754 | 02:12:29 --> 02:12:39 | go lower. But what happens if it wants to go past that? How far can it go? This is a confluence of two different things that are on the same level. Otherwise, I |
| 755 | 02:12:39 --> 02:12:44 | would look at this consequent crutch on that wick. Why not skip over that? Because if somebody would like, you just read my fucking mind. How about that. |
| 756 | 02:12:46 --> 02:12:54 | By the way, don't wear that shirt. It doesn't go with your pants, this consequent crucial of this wick and the low the four hour chart for Vega. That |
| 757 | 02:12:54 --> 02:13:03 | agreement of the same level, I'm going to use that over anything like this secondary lower consequent parchment. But prior to that one, moving my way up. |
| 758 | 02:13:04 --> 02:13:13 | This rejection block consequent encroachment on that wick in the low of the fair, Vega, your stop loss needs to be above that. Okay, and you can weather all |
| 759 | 02:13:13 --> 02:13:21 | this bullshit here in the market eventually breaks lower, takes another swing low out on the 15 minute timeframe. That's a scout that's a high frequency |
| 760 | 02:13:21 --> 02:13:32 | trading trade there too. As a target, what is this right here? Sell side on a 15 minute timeframe. Remember, we're looking at a 15 minute timeframe. So all these |
| 761 | 02:13:32 --> 02:13:39 | levels are salient. There's significant draws for liquidity. So as I'm watching price as you're watching price, you'll look to see does it have a willingness to |
| 762 | 02:13:39 --> 02:13:48 | get down to these levels? And how does it behave once it gets there? Now yesterday, like I am right now I'm I'm hungry. So when I end this livestream, |
| 763 | 02:13:48 --> 02:13:56 | I'm going to grab something, then I'm jumping on Twitter, to do the Twitter space, but I'm hungry and I was just I was very hungry. And my wife had texted |
| 764 | 02:13:56 --> 02:14:07 | me saying, Look, you know, the scope is something and that was enough invitation for me to say you know what, I'm gonna run down and grab something whether it's |
| 765 | 02:14:07 --> 02:14:21 | at my laptop down here and set the bar at my kitchen and eat my Belgian waffle and traded short. This low right here is a sauce on liquidity pool too. We see |
| 766 | 02:14:21 --> 02:14:34 | it drawn to that. Then we see this inefficiency all this drop down here. Where's the fair raiga from this low, up that high? Where's the fair value go? This one |
| 767 | 02:14:35 --> 02:14:45 | in this one. So if you were down here and you're watching it trade up there. You have to do what think about the logic I gave you in the 2022 model. If you have |
| 768 | 02:14:45 --> 02:14:55 | to fair value gaps you have to allow for the market to reach into the higher one two. So yeah, you could have entered on this right there and it dropped down you |
| 769 | 02:14:55 --> 02:15:02 | probably think Rockstar and you had to stop loss right there and that came up and he knocked you out and then it ran. |
| 770 | 02:15:07 --> 02:15:17 | Logic is you have to allow for that secondary fair Vega, I needed to get stopped out. Otherwise I would have been able to do the whole range. And my wife would |
| 771 | 02:15:17 --> 02:15:24 | have been mad at me because I would have been having my attention on this. And not talking to her, because she likes to talk while we're eating. It's one of |
| 772 | 02:15:24 --> 02:15:33 | the things about my wife, I wish she didn't like to do because I like to eat and get done. And she wants to chit chat in the chit chat. And because she's eating, |
| 773 | 02:15:34 --> 02:15:42 | I'm eating, I'm trying to get the meal done while it's warm, okay, I don't like to eat cold food. But she don't mind it. She'll just eat and talk and talk and |
| 774 | 02:15:42 --> 02:15:49 | talk and talk and talk. And that's the time where she's chatty. Anytime when we're not having food. She doesn't. She's not real chatty. I'm always doing the |
| 775 | 02:15:49 --> 02:15:58 | talking. But that was that's her time. So I don't know why I'm telling anyone here to the extra charge. And just let you know, I'm married, and I have to be |
| 776 | 02:15:58 --> 02:16:08 | submissive to her when she needs my time. So there you go. Anyway, the market runs down takes out the London low right in here, which is what I outlined |
| 777 | 02:16:08 --> 02:16:17 | yesterday in a live stream. So I said we were gonna go up into this inefficiency at 10 o'clock, use that new driver to drop down and erase everything from the |
| 778 | 02:16:17 --> 02:16:27 | London low. And all this movement higher the only race that it did. And for good measure has got this low. And that real close to that one didn't it? Doesn't |
| 779 | 02:16:27 --> 02:16:44 | look like you got it No. Does it equal low is 1125. In the low is it did just by a tick, there you go. That's enough for government work, right? And then off the |
| 780 | 02:16:44 --> 02:16:58 | low and consolidating goes into the close. So if you look at how on the one minute chart, I'll say this, and then we're done. It doesn't mean I'm done with |
| 781 | 02:16:58 --> 02:17:09 | you today, it just means I'm done for YouTube. I'm ready for the Twitter space now. Alright, so it goes up and it falls short of reaching consequent |
| 782 | 02:17:09 --> 02:17:16 | encroachment of the for our fair Vega, which is that shaded area up here. So as soon as the next candle opens. |
| 783 | 02:17:22 --> 02:17:34 | As soon as that next moment candle opens, I'm in there. I'm selling short, stop losses placed, I trust everything. What happens if I get stopped out, I got |
| 784 | 02:17:34 --> 02:17:41 | stopped out and I'll look for a new entry. I was trusting that we were going to go down yesterday. And if I would have got stopped out, just like you've watched |
| 785 | 02:17:41 --> 02:17:50 | me do, I think two examples of it this year where I got stopped out in trades. And reentered using the same logic or when I got stopped out, I reversed in the |
| 786 | 02:17:50 --> 02:17:59 | other direction. So I shared me getting stopped out. Okay. I've been stopped out in profit. And some of them too. But I'm talking about where I've been stopped |
| 787 | 02:17:59 --> 02:18:07 | out wrong about what it is I was trying to do. And still getting in and working with the logic or reversing it and finding another profitable trade. So I'm not |
| 788 | 02:18:07 --> 02:18:20 | fearful of sharing a loss shouldn't parched. I'm not fearful of showing a losing trade. I'm not fearful of showing frailty as a human being because as a operator |
| 789 | 02:18:20 --> 02:18:37 | in this, I can bring emotions, I can bring aggression, I can bring anger, hurt feelings. When I lost a pet, you know, if I was doing a lot of trading, then I |
| 790 | 02:18:37 --> 02:18:50 | could have done things, you know, inadvertently in caused harm to my equity. So you have to be aware of those things. But losing trades, and getting stopped out |
| 791 | 02:18:50 --> 02:19:00 | does not cancel the underlying premise behind why you took the trade. Now, not all the time. Sometimes it does. And in those instances, you need to identify, |
| 792 | 02:19:00 --> 02:19:09 | Okay, yeah, this changed everything the trades no longer viable. But if the underlying trade is still there, and it's viable, that means I think it's still |
| 793 | 02:19:09 --> 02:19:18 | going to deliver like I initially thought it would I just made the error as a human placing a stoploss in the wrong place. If I get stopped out under those |
| 794 | 02:19:19 --> 02:19:28 | conditions. Okay, no problem. I'll worry about what I did wrong later on the trade still there. I'm taking it. So as long as I didn't take my full maximum |
| 795 | 02:19:29 --> 02:19:37 | percentage loss for the day, and I'm not talking about new funded account trading stuff, I don't trade that stuff. But whatever my risk would be that I'm |
| 796 | 02:19:37 --> 02:19:48 | accepting as the maximum for the day. If I hit that number, then I have to drop and do less risk half of what I used the initial time. But if I haven't hit my |
| 797 | 02:19:48 --> 02:19:57 | full, whatever my maximum risk, what the day is, and it's all determined and like what I was mentioning earlier, if it's everything going in my favor, I'll |
| 798 | 02:19:57 --> 02:20:04 | trade with four and a half to 5% Max But that's competitive level type trading, like I'm in there to beat the shit out of something or measure myself against |
| 799 | 02:20:04 --> 02:20:15 | something, just so I can say I said so and you can't do it. Generally, it's one and a quarter, one and a half percent to 2% ish, something like that, when I'm |
| 800 | 02:20:15 --> 02:20:24 | real comfortable, but not over competent. It's anywhere between two and a half, to 3%. But generally, if I'm going to take a trait, it has to be something I'm |
| 801 | 02:20:24 --> 02:20:32 | willing to take one on one and a quarter to one and a half percent risk on. If I if I don't feel comfortable doing that, chances are, I'm just gonna let it pass. |
| 802 | 02:20:32 --> 02:20:40 | And I'll talk about it maybe, but I'm not really in it. But if it's above that threshold, like if it's in an airy rocket, and I feel called to I'll risk two |
| 803 | 02:20:40 --> 02:20:47 | and a half to 3% on then at that point, I start weighing out like I was showing you and teaching you this earlier, when I was using the market maker sell model, |
| 804 | 02:20:48 --> 02:20:59 | is there things that would be a impediment to me feeling confident about risking four and a half to 5%? That is not an invitation. I'm not trying to tell you to |
| 805 | 02:20:59 --> 02:21:10 | risk that much. But I'm teaching you how my mind works, and how I assess trades and how I assess risk. When am I willing to assume larger risk, you should never |
| 806 | 02:21:10 --> 02:21:17 | be risking more than 1%. There you go. I said it, okay. But when I talk about what I'm doing my money, that doesn't mean that you should do the same thing. |
| 807 | 02:21:18 --> 02:21:31 | I'm willing to take a larger loss, knowing that I can get it back. My losses are usually limited to about 1/8 of what I can make generally as the high end of a |
| 808 | 02:21:31 --> 02:21:45 | day. So let's just say I'm willing to do a specific model and I know that model can yield me $15,000 In a day. That's a trade. That's that's not a series of |
| 809 | 02:21:45 --> 02:21:54 | trades and losing and winning, winning, losing and then finally getting to a $15,000 payout for the day. I'm saying I have models that I know in one poll, |
| 810 | 02:21:54 --> 02:22:06 | one single poll, no partials, I can pull $15,000 out with that model. So I have to take that and divide that in eight pieces. In 1/8 of that. That's what I |
| 811 | 02:22:07 --> 02:22:23 | that's what I can risk. You don't hear that in Ryan Jones. And oh, no, I'm embarrassed. I can't remember his name now. I'm getting old. I'm having a senior |
| 812 | 02:22:23 --> 02:22:32 | moment today. I can't remember the guys name. Oh, my goodness. I'm so embarrassed. I can't remember this guy's name. Relevance. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. |
| 813 | 02:22:32 --> 02:22:44 | Sorry. Well, that's not in his books. But that's one of the things I use also, when I was running those empty for Forex accounts. Okay. Everybody likes to |
| 814 | 02:22:44 --> 02:22:57 | pretend that they were empty for server rented server something fake? No, I was using high end, high high risk, money management. And I was doing what you see |
| 815 | 02:22:57 --> 02:23:06 | me doing here every fucking day, every single week, every single month for years now. Okay. Some Joker said on Twitter yesterday, say, Oh, this is all great, you |
| 816 | 02:23:06 --> 02:23:15 | know, but show you can do it 21 times out of 30. And I facetiously said you know how six years in a row. When it's technically seven years, I've been doing it in |
| 817 | 02:23:15 --> 02:23:23 | the presence of a community that watch me do it every single fucking day. See, I'm doing things that I used to do all the time for people that paid me. I was |
| 818 | 02:23:23 --> 02:23:31 | outlining the market every single fucking day. And it was to the script all the time, every single day. That's why none of them came out. And I invited them to |
| 819 | 02:23:31 --> 02:23:42 | show the videos where I did it wrong. And it never fucking happened. Isn't it interesting? Even the people that don't like me, never came forward and said, |
| 820 | 02:23:42 --> 02:23:52 | Here's the proof. It didn't happen. Because it never happened. Like they wanted to be they wanted to be were a con artist. I'm doing something surreptitiously. |
| 821 | 02:23:53 --> 02:24:01 | I'm lying to you that this stuff works been proven that it does. And my students proof is enough. I didn't want to leave it in the hands of just my students. I |
| 822 | 02:24:01 --> 02:24:09 | had to come out here the last two years to prove to you fucking clowns that this is like this is next level stuff. They're gonna write books about what I've |
| 823 | 02:24:09 --> 02:24:20 | shared to the public. was long after I'm gone long, long, long, long after I'm gone. They're gonna be reading books about everything that I've proven. Proven. |
| 824 | 02:24:22 --> 02:24:32 | And to be honest, which is kind of weird. So anyway, when it broke down here, and it created this sell side unbalanced by some inefficiency. Soon as it traded |
| 825 | 02:24:32 --> 02:24:44 | up into there, I added to it. That was a pyramid entry. So what about this inefficiency is good that we'd like to see. I'll give you a second look at your |
| 826 | 02:24:44 --> 02:24:57 | market. Remember, the context is we're bearish and we're looking for lower prices. What were we aiming for a run completely overtop of the daily ranges, |
| 827 | 02:24:57 --> 02:25:08 | progress and what they've put in place? Since London's low so this move from here to here is not the entirety of the move. But because I have a wife and I |
| 828 | 02:25:08 --> 02:25:16 | have a family I had no intentions of really trading yesterday but I saw an asshole talk some shit, I had to come out here and bring some receipts. So this |
| 829 | 02:25:16 --> 02:25:29 | inefficiency here. We want to see part of it. There's a portion of it. The upper part of it, we want to see it stay open. Okay, that's the full fare. You got the |
| 830 | 02:25:29 --> 02:25:39 | sell side and balanced by some inefficiency that drop here. That drop to be perfectly repriced. This is not bounced, this is not a rebalancing of price. |
| 831 | 02:25:39 --> 02:25:49 | Okay. Well, if it goes all the way back up and touches the low of that candle, right there that low, take this back off. That candles low right there. If it |
| 832 | 02:25:49 --> 02:26:01 | touches that when it retraces all that is is a complete repricing that is not rebalancing. Okay, the price is not rebalanced until it leaves that range. What |
| 833 | 02:26:01 --> 02:26:14 | does that mean? Here is the inefficiency. Price trades into the inefficiency and then leaves it. When does it leave it right here? How do we know that because it |
| 834 | 02:26:14 --> 02:26:24 | moved away and took out the structure low that used the retracement into it. So it definitely left it on that candle. Then it came back and touched it here and |
| 835 | 02:26:24 --> 02:26:35 | had a little tiny little Mohawk touching into it one tick. Did it have an interest in getting back to the midpoint? No. That's wonderful. That means we're |
| 836 | 02:26:35 --> 02:26:39 | heavy. Also, more specifically. |
| 837 | 02:26:49 --> 02:27:04 | This was the original fair value got right. This is the portion that didn't close in and reprise to what is this? So some of you insignificant, you would |
| 838 | 02:27:04 --> 02:27:13 | never pay any attention to it wouldn't be anything of any consequence to you. It's just whatever just never paid any attention to it right? To me, that's a |
| 839 | 02:27:13 --> 02:27:25 | breakaway gap. It did not completely reprice that candles low. I like to see that that signature is a algorithmic confirmation that we are going lower, we're |
| 840 | 02:27:25 --> 02:27:32 | going lower. And when we broke down on this candle here, see when we look at it like this |
| 841 | 02:27:38 --> 02:27:51 | when you're looking at price it like this, okay. It's hard to appreciate the fine details I'm showing you in this little area here until I point them out to |
| 842 | 02:27:51 --> 02:27:59 | you. But when you go back and look at all my executions, all the ones that are publicly recorded, you might want to go out and start downloading them now |
| 843 | 02:27:59 --> 02:28:10 | because Twitter is a bunch of bullshit. They're putting copyright claims against the music because I guess they they think I'm monetized. But I don't have a blue |
| 844 | 02:28:10 --> 02:28:17 | checkmark. And I would never have a fucking blue checkmark. Because I don't want my tweets, able to be edited. I've never edited a tweet. And I've never deleted |
| 845 | 02:28:17 --> 02:28:24 | a tweet, whatever I've said, I've said it's out there. It's public record, it is what it is. And I'm not taking my Twitter down when I leave November 11 2023. |
| 846 | 02:28:24 --> 02:28:32 | But when I leave it, I am never coming back to fucking Twitter. I came there for two years. And the little bits down in Texas never showed up like I promised you |
| 847 | 02:28:32 --> 02:28:47 | he wouldn't do. And now it's proven. I'm done with Twitter won't go back. So the details in here. Once you start looking for them, go back and look at all the |
| 848 | 02:28:48 --> 02:28:58 | executions and you'll see the signatures are there. I'm trading with this logic in mind. I like to see things delivered to a specific level. But here's another |
| 849 | 02:28:58 --> 02:29:07 | sign of that. I like when the things that would be normal to see it trade back up to this low to reprice to it, that would be an efficient market not |
| 850 | 02:29:07 --> 02:29:17 | inefficient, it would be efficiently delivered price for it to completely overlap this and touch that candles low right there. If it would have done that |
| 851 | 02:29:17 --> 02:29:30 | here or any of these candles, that would have been a completely normal function of an efficiently delivered price. But if we're bearish, we want to see it fail |
| 852 | 02:29:30 --> 02:29:41 | to be efficiently delivered back up to that level because if it does that, it's indicating by default, that is underlying ly weak. Not that it didn't have |
| 853 | 02:29:41 --> 02:29:51 | enough buyers. Not that the sellers came in too much. There's no fucking buying and selling pressure. That is a myth. It's a fucking myth. You're worried about |
| 854 | 02:29:51 --> 02:29:58 | trying to figure out what the buying and selling pressures the whole time you're watching the left hand, the right hand is doing the sleight of hand. That's what |
| 855 | 02:29:58 --> 02:30:06 | you're doing. You're falling victim to this shit. And I'm trying to tell you, this is what's going on. Focus on these things stopped looking at the |
| 856 | 02:30:06 --> 02:30:19 | distractions of book map and fucking level two data, Dom's volume profile, all that bullshit. It's bull shit, stop looking at that stuff. You're being |
| 857 | 02:30:19 --> 02:30:28 | distracted, you're never gonna pay attention to the details that matter if you're looking at that dumb shit. None of that fucking shit works. None of it. |
| 858 | 02:30:28 --> 02:30:35 | If you did something that made money, you're subscribing to that as a fucking religion, you believe that that was the catalyst for you being right, and you |
| 859 | 02:30:35 --> 02:30:46 | believe it? And you keep telling yourself But that had nothing to do with why price did what it did. I swear to you, there is nothing on my fucking monitors |
| 860 | 02:30:46 --> 02:30:55 | that are telling me secret information. I'm literally reading the open high, low and closed at specific times, under the pretense that it should run to liquidity |
| 861 | 02:30:55 --> 02:31:08 | or inefficiency based on a narrative that I literally walked you through minute by minute yesterday live. That's what it is. That's understanding the market. |
| 862 | 02:31:08 --> 02:31:16 | That's understanding price. That's, you're basically reading the future, predicting the future, reading the minds of billions of fucking people all |
| 863 | 02:31:16 --> 02:31:26 | around the spinning rock, and what they're doing in this market. How are they going to perceive it? And what am I going to do against their perception? It's |
| 864 | 02:31:26 --> 02:31:35 | fascinating when you think about like that, in it. It's much more entertaining and engaging, then, let's see what these numbers flashing on the random series |
| 865 | 02:31:35 --> 02:31:46 | of price levels. I hear that it's supposed to be with all these high tech guys at the institutions, the institutional traders, is Goldman Sachs boys, the city |
| 866 | 02:31:46 --> 02:31:55 | traders, these interbank traders, they have these tools, this is what helps them do it. They don't fucking use that shit. They don't use that man. I'm telling |
| 867 | 02:31:55 --> 02:32:06 | you, top tier traders, and that's above Goldman. That's above city. You don't see their faces. They don't have name plates, and tags and social media |
| 868 | 02:32:06 --> 02:32:18 | accounts. And so I'm the only one out here that's teaching this stuff. You're not supposed to know this. And the way I'm teaching it is not the way it really, |
| 869 | 02:32:18 --> 02:32:31 | really is. But it's real, real close. So close. It gets me read on the radar. And it pisses him off. But the cats out the bag. Now, no matter what the fuck |
| 870 | 02:32:31 --> 02:32:42 | happens, it's already done. It's already done. can't undo it, you can't call it back. And you're not going to tear down the whole fucking show, do something to |
| 871 | 02:32:42 --> 02:32:53 | do with new with it. And that's why all you're freaking out, you're thinking oh, no ICTs, let the cat out of the bag, like you said, now they're going to have to |
| 872 | 02:32:53 --> 02:33:03 | change it, they're gonna have to change the open high, low and close, they're gonna have to change how prices go up and down in a rush to get to a specific |
| 873 | 02:33:03 --> 02:33:13 | level leads in inefficiency, because there's always going to be they're always going to be people trading with a stop loss. You might not trade with a stop |
| 874 | 02:33:13 --> 02:33:19 | loss because you're reckless. But people out there with real money with real risk, they're going to use a stop loss. And guess what we're going to put it |
| 875 | 02:33:19 --> 02:33:30 | always above old highs or above an old high below an old low or below old lows. They're always going to do that, folks, that's never going to fucking change |
| 876 | 02:33:30 --> 02:33:40 | that's never going to deviate from that. Markets are going to move real fast in one direction. And you're going to be determined on a longer term basis that |
| 877 | 02:33:40 --> 02:33:51 | it's going to go to a specific price level. And it's going to rush to start moving there. That's a false start. This is a false start right here. Well, real |
| 878 | 02:33:51 --> 02:34:01 | quick. Oh no, let's get short chase it right? No, it's gonna go higher. And then they get out or get stopped out. They use a stoploss and then it breaks lower |
| 879 | 02:34:01 --> 02:34:10 | again. What is this market doing? Nobody knows how to predict price. It says rigged. It's random. It's this it's that I gotta get a higher membership on my |
| 880 | 02:34:10 --> 02:34:29 | level two data. It's so delicious. I can't stand it. Anyway, I've gone on enough today. I've had so much fun this morning. I've had so much fun I hopefully I |
| 881 | 02:34:29 --> 02:34:38 | haven't offend any of you to subscribe all that bullshit, but I promise you if you put the work into the things I'm sharing, and I'm sharing it with real |
| 882 | 02:34:38 --> 02:34:48 | fucking results, folks, because there ain't nothing you can say anymore. Now, you can't say shit anymore. real results, real students real money. Real record |
| 883 | 02:34:49 --> 02:34:58 | of me doing it. showing it to you outlining it proven it to you. Everyday, everyday, everyday, week after week, month after month now years after years. |
| 884 | 02:34:58 --> 02:35:08 | Seven plus fucking years this August, I had a private community that watched me do this, a legion of motherfuckers that literally could have came out here |
| 885 | 02:35:08 --> 02:35:18 | anytime and said, This is what he said was going to happen and didn't. They shared my videos all over the place just like good little employees. And that's |
| 886 | 02:35:18 --> 02:35:29 | what made me viral. Don't share my videos, don't you share my videos? No one damn well, they're gonna share my videos. That's how I advertised. That's |
| 887 | 02:35:29 --> 02:35:41 | exactly how I did it books. No paid advertisement because my shit sells itself. No coupon codes. I don't have to get discounts. I raised the price. And people |
| 888 | 02:35:41 --> 02:35:50 | still beating on the door. Please open another one up. I'm teaching for free, showing it giving it live and they're begging me. Please let me pay you to teach |
| 889 | 02:35:50 --> 02:36:02 | me. What does that tell you? That means that they see something that works and they think I'm holding it back and I'm not. I promise you folks, listen. Listen, |
| 890 | 02:36:02 --> 02:36:13 | listen, listen, listen, listen. If you are a mentorship student, and you're in my private group, no matter what user group you're in, I don't give a fuck. Tell |
| 891 | 02:36:13 --> 02:36:24 | them in the comments. In the post I tweet to on Twitter for the Twitter space I'm going to do you tell them that you are a mentorship charter member? And you |
| 892 | 02:36:24 --> 02:36:35 | tell them if I am around I'm not making fucking videos for you right now. Am I ongoingly teaching publicly Yes I am. They are not getting something secret. I |
| 893 | 02:36:35 --> 02:36:41 | hang out with them once in a while very briefly because my time has been consumed with this but they're going to get more of my time after November. Not |
| 894 | 02:36:41 --> 02:36:50 | so much because the holidays but next year my time is spent with them answering questions I'm not making videos for them. Because if I make a video they're the |
| 895 | 02:36:50 --> 02:36:56 | assholes that are still in there that want to sell them they're going to try to Melker them. I'm not marketing shit for them. I'm not going to produce content |
| 896 | 02:36:56 --> 02:37:08 | for them to sell fuck them starve motherfucker. I came out here for free to kill all that shit. I don't need to sell mentorships Okay, and when I stopped making |
| 897 | 02:37:08 --> 02:37:16 | videos on YouTube, you're gonna see I don't need that fucking ad revenue either. We're gonna say then, oh, he was right. He didn't come back. You're fucking |
| 898 | 02:37:16 --> 02:37:32 | right. Everything I do is for a reason. Some of you just don't want to see it. You don't want to accept it. And understand like, I don't understand why you |
| 899 | 02:37:32 --> 02:37:36 | wouldn't want it seize the opportunity and make the best of it. |
| 900 | 02:37:37 --> 02:37:53 | Instead of wasting time arguing about dumb shit, damn shit. But opinions are like assholes. Everybody has one until |