ICT YT - 2023-09-29 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Market Commentary and Review September 29 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-10-16 19:16
Outline
01:31 - Economic drivers and market analysis.
- ICT provides live streams and reviews of market trends, highlighting upcoming economic drivers.
03:40 - Currency market analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT expects volatility around 10 am and a potential Silver Bullet setup.
- The dollar index may trade back into its established range, with a bearish order block and volume imbalance at a key level.
- ICT suggests traders should be content with profits made this week and avoid taking unnecessary risks on Friday, especially in the forex market.
- ICT believes the dollar is still bullish despite recent downward movement, but is willing to be proven wrong on lower timeframes.
10:05 - Technical analysis and market trends.
- Manju analyzes the Eurodollar chart and identifies a small inefficiency that could lead to a jump in price if traders take notice.
- Manju provides specific trading opportunities for the London session, including silver bullets, stock hunts, and fair value gaps.
- ICT mentions a potential inefficiency in the GBP/USD market, highlighting a range between two candles on the weekly chart.
- ICT believes this inefficiency could lead to further consolidation or a deeper retracement, rather than a potential move higher.
16:10 - Technical analysis of gold and currency markets.
- ICT analyzes gold chart, identifies inefficiency and potential trade opportunity.
- ICT discusses the volatile nature of the gold market and how it's event-driven and highly manipulated.
- ICT identifies a potential intermediate-term target for gold at $1,6525, based on recent market movements.
21:03 - Trading E-mini S&P contracts and balanced price ranges.
- ICT discusses the E-Mini S&P December contract, highlighting the importance of balanced price ranges and how they can be challenging to trade.
- ICT provides insights on how to trade these ranges, including the need to allow for multiple passes and the importance of understanding the central banks' role in price delivery.
- ICT highlights the importance of understanding the market's mindset and how buyers are setting traps for traders who think the price will go down.
- ICT expects price to retrace and move higher, targeting the 4367 level, based on the tape read and debt study.
26:30 - Market inefficiencies and trading strategies.
- ICT is not convinced that the law is in place, but recognizes inefficiencies in the market.
- ICT suggests studying price action to anticipate potential trading opportunities.
- Trader advises against chasing new highs, emphasizes importance of mindfulness and process-oriented decision-making.
31:29 - Trading strategies and mindset.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of consistency and discipline in trading, avoiding impulsive decisions based on emotions or external factors.
- ICT warns against relying on soundbites or isolated opinions from unreliable sources, instead seeking guidance from experienced mentors who can provide proper context and support.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of confidence building through proper analysis and trading with a simple, professionally minded approach.
- ICT encourages traders to accept responsibility for losing trades and to stop trying to create significance through arrogant behavior.
37:28 - Technical analysis and market behavior.
- Trader identifies potential for price to reach higher levels based on candle formation and liquidity.
- Trader expects algorithm to reprice stops and potentially lead to follow-through on upside momentum.
- ICT believes that most people on social media don't have the ability to find the true support and resistance levels, leading to random price movements.
- ICT uses a language and narrative approach to interpret candlestick patterns, believing that this helps to avoid short-term randomness and understand the market's true intentions.
43:38 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT identifies an immediate rebalance in the market, indicating a potential entry point for traders.
- ICT highlights a small inefficiency in the price run, suggesting a potential pyramid entry.
- ICT explains how to identify high probability trade setups by analyzing price action and identifying signature patterns.
- ICT demonstrates how to use these patterns to anticipate price movements and execute trades with a higher likelihood of success.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of not taking trades on Friday, as it's a day of high volatility and risk.
- ICT suggests a potential trading strategy for the rest of the day, focusing on buying in the morning and selling in the afternoon.
51:04 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- ICT compares news drivers to bombs, explaining how they can cause price movements in the market.
- ICT favors running up to 930 but won't take the trade on Friday due to mindset.
- Trader anticipates sentiment shifts in retail and collective trading, using psychology to predict price movements.
57:08 - Market dynamics and risk management in trading.
- Large hedge funds and proprietary algorithms use surgical strikes to profit from market movements, while small fish in the ocean use circular bites to sustain themselves.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of accepting volatility and potential losses in trading, rather than trying to avoid them.
- The speaker believes that most traders are not successful due to their inability to handle the emotional rollercoaster of trading and missing out on profits.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of realistic expectations and learning how the market works, rather than focusing on being perfect from the start.
- ICT advises new traders to cut their risk in half or close their trades when they feel uncertainty in the market, as it can be costly to wrestle through it in the early stages.
01:03:28 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of preserving capital and cutting losses early, even if a trade doesn't go as planned.
- ICT advises against overreacting to short-term setbacks, such as a single losing trade, and instead focuses on the long-term efficacy of one's model.
- ICT predicts market will go lower, potentially squeezing up to new highs before dropping.
01:08:25 - Trading psychology and risk management.
- ICT: Identifies potential profit opportunities in stocks using news drivers and technical analysis.
- ICT believes that market drivers may use 10 o'clock news to squeeze prices higher, potentially leading to a retracement of Wednesday's low.
- ICT is content with being wrong in trading decisions, as long as they are trusting the logic and not feeling FOMO (fear of missing out).
- ICT emphasizes the importance of preserving mental capital by thinking about risk management and using stop losses to avoid blowing accounts.
- Lack of discipline and poor risk management can lead to unrealistic fears and undoing as a trader, even with access to quality material and rules.
01:14:54 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of having the right mindset for trading, citing a lack of patience and willingness to learn as a major obstacle.
- The speaker mutes people who ask for shortcuts or quick fixes, indicating a zero-tolerance policy for those not willing to put in the time and effort required for successful trading.
- ICT is watching the market to see how it behaves after the 10 O'Clock News driver, as it could lead to a short opportunity (10 core content)
- ICT expects smart money to sell into rallies in the indices, as they are bearish on the underlying sentiment (commodity portion of core content)
01:20:14 - Market making and trading strategies.
- ICT: Market makers consume orders as a shield to protect their short positions, using them as a stepping stool to reach their goals.
- ICT: Market making is not facilitating trade, but consuming, with the fittest (market makers) eating the lower ladders.
- ICT believes the market may drop after 10am due to short-covering, potentially causing losses for traders with buy stops in the area.
- ICT also suggests that even if traders enter long positions at 9:30am, they may face a short-lived objective due to potential news events or sentiment shifts.
01:26:19 - Market analysis and trading strategies.
- Iain highlights the importance of understanding market dynamics and filtering out noise to make accurate trading calls.
- ICT explains the concept of alignment balance in candlestick charting, highlighting the importance of volume imbalance in identifying potential trading opportunities.
01:31:14 - Trading strategies using technical analysis.
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- ICT warns of choppy market conditions, emphasizing the importance of preparation and observation.
01:35:19 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT: Avoiding trades due to uncertainty, waiting for clearer signals.
- ICT believes price action is being engineered to create more liquidity above highs.
01:39:49 - Trading strategies and market manipulation.
- ICT: Market manipulation possible when two drivers present in same session.
- ICT: Traders struggle in a chaotic market with no clear direction.
01:44:07 - Trading strategies and avoiding pitfalls in the financial market.
- Trader reflects on past mistakes, recognizing the importance of learning when not to trade.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding price action and developing a skill set to avoid common pitfalls in trading.
- ICT encourages viewers to homeschool their children and teach them independent thinking skills to become entrepreneurs.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:01:31 --> 00:01:43 | ICT: It is a good morning. So you know the drill, I'm checking Twitter right now if you guys could give me a five by five, everything's clear on the chart. And |
| 2 | 00:01:43 --> 00:01:51 | the audio is good volume good. Doing a latency test as well to give me a feel for how much time it takes to get to you. |
| 3 | 00:02:10 --> 00:02:29 | Thank you folks appreciate that. Alright, so let's get this circuit started. So we have the dollar index chart up here. One second, I got my headphones on, I |
| 4 | 00:02:31 --> 00:02:48 | don't want them my mom talking. So I did two live streams on Wednesday, two days ago, and I did the morning session review, and what I felt was likely to be |
| 5 | 00:02:48 --> 00:02:57 | impactful. And then you saw it come to pass. And then I did a review on Wednesday afternoon, giving you a review of what took place and then what I felt |
| 6 | 00:02:57 --> 00:03:08 | would be likely for Thursday's trading everything descript. So without stealing the thunder from those two live streams on Wednesday, I'll counsel you to go |
| 7 | 00:03:08 --> 00:03:21 | check those out. I add them to the 2023 ICT mentorship playlist on my YouTube channel. Today, we're just gonna go briefly through but reminding you that there |
| 8 | 00:03:21 --> 00:03:36 | is two economic drivers that are coming out at 830. So in about 19 and a half minutes, we will see the PCE Price Index, core PCE Price Index rally, and then |
| 9 | 00:03:36 --> 00:03:46 | at 10am, the revised consumer sentiment number. Okay, so we'll probably see some volatility around the 10 o'clock hour. So you'll probably get a pretty good |
| 10 | 00:03:46 --> 00:03:58 | Silver Bullet set up during the 10 o'clock to 11 o'clock hour. I will not be trading again today. We're planning to do some things this weekend. So it |
| 11 | 00:03:58 --> 00:04:08 | requires us to do some shopping and making things ready right now. So with all that said, let's get into this. The dollar index is our daily chart. And as I |
| 12 | 00:04:08 --> 00:04:26 | mentioned on Wednesday, we would likely see it trade back into the range that it's created. And here is Wednesday's trading. Retracing and here's today's |
| 13 | 00:04:26 --> 00:04:42 | trading now, if you take note we have this delivery and price all through here. And if you look at this little bit closer I promise not to keep too long. On |
| 14 | 00:04:42 --> 00:04:51 | Wednesday, I was a little more lengthier than I wanted it to be |
| 15 | 00:04:58 --> 00:05:10 | okay, so I Oh, this area in here watch us intraday today, especially around the 830 and 10 o'clock hour when the news event comes because this inefficiency is |
| 16 | 00:05:10 --> 00:05:21 | the only one on the daily chart. So we have all of this, we're on here, no inefficiencies until we get down to here. We're right at this one now. Okay. So |
| 17 | 00:05:21 --> 00:05:33 | we did in fact, see the retracement, we got down below an old high, which was the target months ago. So we got through that. I'm not convinced that we have |
| 18 | 00:05:33 --> 00:05:42 | ignored this or have abandoned the idea of trading back in that range. You know, again, counted if you look at the live stream, so on Wednesday, telling you what |
| 19 | 00:05:42 --> 00:05:52 | this is and why it's important to me. Not that it should be important to you, but just you know, observe, watch what you get. We have a volume imbalance here |
| 20 | 00:05:53 --> 00:06:06 | inside of a Faraday gap. So you want to study that also. And you'll see that that's where we basically trade to, and it coupled with the last up close |
| 21 | 00:06:06 --> 00:06:17 | candle. So this is a bearish order block with a fair Vega and a volume imbalance. That's three pdra. Stan, do you see the reaction here on dollar we |
| 22 | 00:06:17 --> 00:06:27 | opened traded up, made the high this session back down into a discount range. Pardon me, seasonal allergies, folks. And that's another reason why we're gonna |
| 23 | 00:06:27 --> 00:06:36 | try to get through as quickly because I know my voice is gonna be lost eventually got kicked off. Haters, like lose your voice. So we have this wick as |
| 24 | 00:06:36 --> 00:06:49 | well as a discount range. Objective on the downside. So we'll be looking at this range here. The here you can see the consequent corrosion is tagged there. Okay, |
| 25 | 00:06:49 --> 00:06:59 | so anything below this consequent encouragement on a closing basis on the daily chart means that we probably have to come back a little bit deeper than I'd like |
| 26 | 00:06:59 --> 00:07:07 | to see it, which means we could see it go into this area here. I'm not suggesting that's the case today. I don't think you should be trading today. I |
| 27 | 00:07:07 --> 00:07:16 | think you should be content with what you basically taken out the marketplaces this week. We've had a really good analysis, we've had a really good price run |
| 28 | 00:07:17 --> 00:07:25 | over the last few weeks. And it's Friday. If you have profits on the week, the worst thing you could possibly do is offer them up on the altar to have them |
| 29 | 00:07:25 --> 00:07:43 | taken away. So you can go on the weekend, sulking in regretting the fact you did it. Moving on over into the euro, getting a lot of feedback in the comment |
| 30 | 00:07:43 --> 00:07:53 | section because I'm back to talking about forex. I'm going to talk about forex when it's salient. When it's not, I won't. Okay, so don't get your hopes up on |
| 31 | 00:07:53 --> 00:08:06 | it being a steady diet of it. But when it's important enough for me to mention, I will. Alright, so we mentioned on Wednesday, we would likely see more prior to |
| 32 | 00:08:06 --> 00:08:18 | Wednesday, we were looking forward to trade below these lows in here. We did get that on Wednesday, and I said it's prime time for it to either consolidate and |
| 33 | 00:08:18 --> 00:08:30 | or retrace, we've done a lot on the downside we traded into sell side liquidity, Thursday can tend to make what the opposite end of the weekly range, especially |
| 34 | 00:08:30 --> 00:08:45 | if we've met long term higher timeframe or intermediate term targets, meaning it's dropped a lot from here, all the way down through this low that low in this |
| 35 | 00:08:45 --> 00:08:57 | low here. So the sell side liquidity the low there is Now I wouldn't say purged. It's been engaged and not convinced that we're not going to go a little bit |
| 36 | 00:08:57 --> 00:09:12 | lower, I still think that this low here will be eventually traded to longer story is I'm still bullish on dollar. I don't believe we've reversed I don't |
| 37 | 00:09:12 --> 00:09:23 | think that's the top I'm welcoming, being proven wrong, that's fine, because in the lower lower timeframes. I'm pretty accurate in that vote on a higher time |
| 38 | 00:09:23 --> 00:09:35 | frames on the long term reversals, I allow for the market to give me a lot information before I change my convictions about it. So I'm willing to submit to |
| 39 | 00:09:35 --> 00:09:48 | being wrong more on the daily charts at higher timeframe reversals, which is why I try to avoid picking bottoms in bear markets, or tops in bull markets. It |
| 40 | 00:09:48 --> 00:09:55 | sounds cliche, you hear everybody say don't try to do this. Don't try to do that. But yet everybody writes books and courses about how you should do it. Or |
| 41 | 00:09:55 --> 00:10:06 | some kind of pattern. But on Wednesday We talked about the likelihood of a retracement. And you can see we did in fact, have that on Thursday. And then the |
| 42 | 00:10:06 --> 00:10:13 | follow through today. If you look real close, there's a small little inefficiency right in there. So I want to zoom in and take your attention to the |
| 43 | 00:10:13 --> 00:10:26 | levels that I think are selling it for today. This wick is lower than that one or tail because it's below the candlesticks body. So you want to have this noted |
| 44 | 00:10:26 --> 00:10:36 | here on your Eurodollar. So 1.0638 and was at three pivots. So you want to have that noted there, I'm not going to leave it on my chart, I just want to show you |
| 45 | 00:10:36 --> 00:10:47 | that that it could with the news, it could jump up in there. If it trades above that. These relative equal highs right here. That's the draw. Okay, that'll be |
| 46 | 00:10:47 --> 00:10:56 | the drawl throughout the day or into next week. Still not changing or upsetting the applecart for lower prices in my mind, because I think the dollar still |
| 47 | 00:11:03 --> 00:11:10 | this small little inefficiency is what we've traded into. And when you have your chart |
| 48 | 00:11:15 --> 00:11:27 | allowing for observational things, things like this, it's a little bit easier to see it. Okay, so that's what we trade up into. Look at your london session, |
| 49 | 00:11:28 --> 00:11:39 | study that break that down, look for silver bullets, look for stock hunts, then displacement, and then a 32nd, fair value gap. Those types of things are all |
| 50 | 00:11:39 --> 00:11:47 | throughout this morning, trading up into this inefficiency. Now again, if you're a first time viewer in this, it's the first time you watch this video, if it's |
| 51 | 00:11:47 --> 00:11:54 | past the time, I'm live streaming right now, or if you're watching the live stream live with us. And you're seeing me talk about these things and think |
| 52 | 00:11:54 --> 00:12:02 | Manju is sorry, happen, go back and watch the live stream on Wednesday. Okay, I gave you very specific things that I wanted to see that day. And then what I |
| 53 | 00:12:02 --> 00:12:10 | want to see on Thursday is trading we would be going higher, it's reasonable to see a trade higher. So it's unreal. It's it's unreasonable for someone to come |
| 54 | 00:12:10 --> 00:12:17 | in and say well, you know, this is useless information because it's after the fact when I've many times before the fact point things out, whether it be on |
| 55 | 00:12:17 --> 00:12:25 | Twitter, calling out labels calling out what it should reach for and I'll give you the context as to why I believe so when I'm doing the analysis or, or |
| 56 | 00:12:25 --> 00:12:33 | commentary over the charts. So it kind of just gives you like a comprehensive experience as not just say here's where I think it's going to go because I'm not |
| 57 | 00:12:33 --> 00:12:39 | trying to provide signals and trying to teach you a mindset so that we can use the concepts of freely taught on this YouTube channel. So that way you can go |
| 58 | 00:12:39 --> 00:12:49 | out and find your own model your own setup and be consistent with it not require hand holding by me or anyone else which should be the target goal for every |
| 59 | 00:12:49 --> 00:12:58 | trader independent mindset. Alright, so like I said, we've been bearish through this whole thing. It's been really nice to be able to see that happen yesterday. |
| 60 | 00:12:59 --> 00:13:11 | Delivered like gangbusters, looking for retracement higher. Real quick on cable. That was the wife yelling at one of my boxers if you heard her if I'm not sure |
| 61 | 00:13:11 --> 00:13:20 | if you heard or not, but she was pretty loud. They're howling. Alright, so here we have, I mean go up to weekly charts is not going to make any sense to you. If |
| 62 | 00:13:20 --> 00:13:33 | you haven't saw those streams on Wednesday, this inefficiency here on the weekly chart which is the week of March 13 2023. That's the battleground sauce on |
| 63 | 00:13:33 --> 00:13:45 | efficiency hurray get and trip down to that I mentioned on Wednesday on the see a tree down below that inefficiency. And we got one little tiny WhatsApp pit bat |
| 64 | 00:13:45 --> 00:14:00 | or something below it. What's the higher this candle right here on 10th. Hi comes in at 2113 and seven PubMed. So 13 Seven, in the low of this candle comes |
| 65 | 00:14:00 --> 00:14:18 | in at 11 Oh, I'm sorry. So just a little bit below, but just as a candlestick tale, not the body. And the bodies are basically around consequent |
| 66 | 00:14:18 --> 00:14:31 | encouragement, which is the midpoint of any fair value gap or inefficiency. In Thursday, you see us trade higher and then follow through today. This wick |
| 67 | 00:14:31 --> 00:14:42 | consequent encroachment halfway point reading there. We try to read up into it. The inefficiency just above this old low. I'm not a Support Resistance traders |
| 68 | 00:14:42 --> 00:14:51 | much as anybody would like to say that I am because they're trying to sell something that nobody wants to buy. This inefficiency right here is just inside |
| 69 | 00:14:51 --> 00:15:01 | a run back up into that low so you can get up in there. I mentioned this on Wednesday, and this shaded area here is not a mistake. least for a gap box or |
| 70 | 00:15:01 --> 00:15:08 | something to that effect, I'm actually referring to something on the weekly chart and I want to see this portion. And so you're gonna go crazy because I'm |
| 71 | 00:15:08 --> 00:15:22 | not talking about this diversity watched. It's the upper portion of this inefficiency between these candles love and that candles high this previous |
| 72 | 00:15:22 --> 00:15:37 | candle here a week, that one big perming. But one big candle moving lower one directionally, that range between these two candles, you bracketing it, I want |
| 73 | 00:15:37 --> 00:15:45 | to see this portion of that range. They unfilled notes, I don't want to see any price come all the way back up to this candles low here. I don't want to see |
| 74 | 00:15:45 --> 00:15:56 | that. Because as long as that stays true, I believe that we're going lower on POUND DOLLAR. Can it go up here and reprice to that an investor go lower? Yeah, |
| 75 | 00:15:56 --> 00:16:07 | but the probabilities shift much further away from likelihood versus more consolidation and maybe even a deeper retracement into this one. Which is why I |
| 76 | 00:16:07 --> 00:16:18 | like to see this late open in this upper half. Okay, so we understand the context of why that boxes on the daily chart now right here. So, same drill, you |
| 77 | 00:16:18 --> 00:16:30 | want to look at what London did last night for today. And then what we what we traded in did yesterday on cable, using silver bullets at the London session, |
| 78 | 00:16:30 --> 00:16:45 | New York session am and in how we had price drop into this consequent portrait of this wick here. So that's that's a nice good study to do over the weekend, if |
| 79 | 00:16:45 --> 00:16:54 | you don't have time to do it right now, because you may be at school work or about to go to bed and moving over into ETS. Before I do that, Cisco let's get |
| 80 | 00:16:54 --> 00:17:14 | gold out of the way real quick. I keep forgetting that extra year. Alright, so the order block starts here at this candle here. On the daily charts, at least |
| 81 | 00:17:14 --> 00:17:25 | two consecutive down close candles makes the bullish or block before this displacement to the upside. There is an inefficiency in here. So we talked about |
| 82 | 00:17:25 --> 00:17:40 | how this gap from this candlesticks low in this candlesticks high, which isn't drawn correctly isn't just weird. But the the sell side below that in an |
| 83 | 00:17:40 --> 00:17:49 | inefficiency here. I want to see a trade to the completion of this. And if he got overzealous I mentioned on Wednesday that we can get down here and touch the |
| 84 | 00:17:49 --> 00:18:12 | order block. We traded really close to but we did touch the high of it. Right there. So the high that candle 1800 58.36. So 58.36, the low 57.73. That's |
| 85 | 00:18:12 --> 00:18:20 | pretty close. For gold. You know, gold is one of those like a market I mentioned many times before and every time I talk about it, it's a fickle market. I mean, |
| 86 | 00:18:20 --> 00:18:26 | it's event driven, it's going to mess around with you a lot. It's highly manipulated. Can you find setups in it? Yes. Do I have students that traded |
| 87 | 00:18:26 --> 00:18:39 | predominantly only solely? Yes. Do I trade it, I don't like to. I just don't like to do it. But that so that also delivered handsomely on the analysis from |
| 88 | 00:18:39 --> 00:18:51 | Wednesday. In case I haven't made it clear, as I'm going through these, I'm not suggesting any of these have reversed. I'm just saying that. Everything that's |
| 89 | 00:18:51 --> 00:19:01 | in motion that I've talked about on a higher timeframe, I'm sticking with that idea. And again, avoiding trying to pick like the low on this. If the dollar |
| 90 | 00:19:01 --> 00:19:09 | does in fact resume going higher, like say resumes next week, or towards the latter part of next week. So something might happen on the fourth or something |
| 91 | 00:19:09 --> 00:19:23 | to that effect. And should that be the case and dollar starts going higher. Just look down here because right over here is where I'm liking the idea of gold |
| 92 | 00:19:23 --> 00:19:34 | reaching for that. Okay, so right below there is where I like to see intermediate term target for gold is down there. Everything that I talked about |
| 93 | 00:19:34 --> 00:19:43 | for those respective markets, I told you on the Wednesday, live streams, what would change my mind about it? So if you're wanting to know what would make me |
| 94 | 00:19:43 --> 00:19:56 | abandon these ideas, I covered that, you know, respectively throughout the individual marks that I talked about. And yes, now we'll look at that. Oh, real |
| 95 | 00:19:56 --> 00:20:13 | quick. Probably didn't do it. I mentioned I wanted to see Ozzy kind of like, upset its lows. And it did. So went down, took those sellside right there and |
| 96 | 00:20:13 --> 00:20:21 | then look at the reaction there. So there's buyside resting right above here. So if you're intraday scalper and you want to use the news this morning, there's a |
| 97 | 00:20:21 --> 00:20:36 | couple things in here and you might want to look at, and this here. overzealous price takes us up in that easy low hanging fruit. Dollar moves lower |
| 98 | 00:20:36 --> 00:20:47 | continuously on the news at 830. And or 10, we could see 6525 We'll call it that as a run for buyside. It's not a lot in terms of pips between where we're at |
| 99 | 00:20:47 --> 00:20:55 | here, but it's certainly something that you can trade with a demo account or tape read or study. You know, I might be wrong. You know, it might be one of |
| 100 | 00:20:55 --> 00:21:03 | those instances where you can say, ICT said this is going to happen, and it didn't happen. You can go around on social media and cheerleader. Let's go over |
| 101 | 00:21:03 --> 00:21:03 | that. Yes. |
| 102 | 00:21:07 --> 00:21:18 | Alright, so here is the E Mini s&p December contract. And I want to try to quickly get through this because I do want to watch the 830 News reaction on |
| 103 | 00:21:18 --> 00:21:33 | NASDAQ es with your life, but I'll close it around 845. The live stream that is alright, so I mentioned how, again, how we could come back up retrace. I'd like |
| 104 | 00:21:33 --> 00:21:42 | to see these not taken. Like I don't want to see these two highs swept because I liked the fact that we came up great to consequent pressure on this wick. So |
| 105 | 00:21:42 --> 00:21:53 | half of that wick went right there. And then we had a turn, which is classic price delivery. We went over in overshot this inefficiency. And we trade it down |
| 106 | 00:21:53 --> 00:22:05 | in the order block here. And I'll add debt levels you can see there dug into that, and into this inefficiency here once more. And I I want to see it get down |
| 107 | 00:22:05 --> 00:22:16 | below here. But as I mentioned on Wednesday, this is a balanced price range most like it was with the NASDAQ as well. A balanced price range takes a lot of |
| 108 | 00:22:16 --> 00:22:28 | energy to get through. And while the prices are always delivered algorithmically or by means of manual intervention, where the central bank will step in or the |
| 109 | 00:22:28 --> 00:22:38 | the hand, if you will, quote unquote, the market makers, not the ones that you hear named, okay, or have a title given to them at some kind of trading firm or |
| 110 | 00:22:38 --> 00:22:44 | whatever. They're not market makers, they're dealers and they're dealing in a price feed that they don't make. So that doesn't make them a market maker, it |
| 111 | 00:22:44 --> 00:22:53 | makes them a dealer, so they're always misnamed. Were the folks that actually originate price and deliver price that's the central banks that comes from them. |
| 112 | 00:22:53 --> 00:23:06 | That's the top tier, that's the beginning. That's the origin. When we see how price delivers to these objectives, when it's met with a, an area like this back |
| 113 | 00:23:06 --> 00:23:14 | and forth, this is a balanced price range. So it's going to take a much more meaningful price run to get through this many times they won't do it on one |
| 114 | 00:23:14 --> 00:23:23 | single pass. So you have to allow for it to go down a little bit, come back up, go down a little bit deeper into it come back up a little bit deeper into it. So |
| 115 | 00:23:24 --> 00:23:32 | it's it's not always that way. But as a general rule of thumb, I'm getting comments in the YouTube comments asking you know, how do you know when to read |
| 116 | 00:23:32 --> 00:23:40 | the bounce price range is going to break How do you trade them you know, what's the insights that we can give to provide some more support around that just know |
| 117 | 00:23:40 --> 00:23:50 | that it's an it's not a low resistance liquidity run to trade through a balanced price range. It is a low resistance run to trade to a balanced price range when |
| 118 | 00:23:50 --> 00:23:59 | you're above it and we're trading down. So since we hit it we hit all of our objectives on s&p and more it's reasonable to expect thursday friday retracement |
| 119 | 00:23:59 --> 00:24:09 | okay but not call the bottom in the marketplace that's that's really important to them making sure you understand that part of it. And let's see we'll jump |
| 120 | 00:24:09 --> 00:24:23 | down into a hourly chart real quick. I mentioned how we would go into upset these highs and here we've dug into that we have a smaller inefficiency rate |
| 121 | 00:24:23 --> 00:24:35 | there between this candles low and his candles high. You got to start moving your charts around so you can see him better. So you keep your charts so |
| 122 | 00:24:35 --> 00:24:45 | squinched or you only so show so many candlesticks. It's like you're missing a lot of the details in the price comes down into that on Thursday with the |
| 123 | 00:24:45 --> 00:24:54 | expectation of expectation of what what I was outlining on Thursday is that we would see price retrace and move higher seeking what buyside why? Because |
| 124 | 00:24:54 --> 00:25:00 | they're going to set traps for traders that think that this is going down now because they've had all these days behind them where it's gone. down. So now |
| 125 | 00:25:00 --> 00:25:11 | they finally get into the mindset that okay, it's gonna go lower. And I was taking your attention to the buy side. And there's a small little clean area in |
| 126 | 00:25:11 --> 00:25:29 | here. You might want to look at that this morning. And overzealous delivery will take us up into right? Okay, so there's two things you could see price reach for |
| 127 | 00:25:29 --> 00:25:41 | for this morning 830 News and or 10 o'clock, so it can reach the 4367. If you can look at something, we're lower timeframes. The tape read debt study, it was |
| 128 | 00:25:41 --> 00:25:59 | not something you can look at for today. And let's go back to the daily chart and go to MQ. Okay, and this one here was the strongest between the two indices |
| 129 | 00:26:00 --> 00:26:09 | on the upside, so it's not surprising to see it be the laggard going lower. So while it did take out our relative equal lows, which we've been aiming for in |
| 130 | 00:26:09 --> 00:26:16 | this quarterly shift objective, which is this bison unbalanced outside efficiency, we want to see it trade into this big up close candle. We got down |
| 131 | 00:26:16 --> 00:26:26 | to it here on Wednesday. And as I mentioned, I said it could retrace, right above these relative equal highs, go back and watch the video folks, the live |
| 132 | 00:26:26 --> 00:26:40 | streams, but it could trade up into here. And again, I'm not trying to convey the idea that I believe that the law is in place. I don't suspect that it's like |
| 133 | 00:26:40 --> 00:26:51 | that at all. I think that, you know, we've dropped a lot. There is an inefficiency here. There is a wick here that people like to see things like |
| 134 | 00:26:51 --> 00:27:01 | this, they think that's a doji it's bearish. They're gonna put stops above that. It's perfectly reasonable, it's perfectly acceptable, it's common practice for |
| 135 | 00:27:01 --> 00:27:11 | the market to want to go back up, take a pool of liquidity out on the daily chart, that would be opposing the longer term or intermediate term targets, |
| 136 | 00:27:11 --> 00:27:21 | which in this case, I'm leading to you that we could still still go lower. And I'm willing to allow the market to tell me I'm wrong on the daily chart, which |
| 137 | 00:27:21 --> 00:27:30 | is fine. I don't care. I'm not going to trade the day. I didn't trade yesterday. So I'm waiting for more information. Why? Why didn't you trade, because all of |
| 138 | 00:27:30 --> 00:27:38 | my targets were met, all of them were met, I'm content, I'm happy. I don't need to tell you anything more, because it happened in another day that I wasn't |
| 139 | 00:27:38 --> 00:27:45 | gonna trade, which was yesterday, I told you what to expect. And it's happened in your charts. So that's one of the things you want to get real comfortable |
| 140 | 00:27:45 --> 00:27:56 | with also, is being content with enough. So if you have an idea, here's a very much like I was outlining the s&p before we traded here, real quick. The |
| 141 | 00:27:56 --> 00:28:09 | inefficiency on the daily chart is up there by side because there's that can be a little bit accelerated and animated much more than s&p 1500 15,000. And here's |
| 142 | 00:28:09 --> 00:28:16 | the 30 news. So 15,028 to the inefficiency up here. |
| 143 | 00:28:23 --> 00:28:26 | Small little gap here we dropped down into that ahead of 830. |
| 144 | 00:28:32 --> 00:28:40 | A scenario I would expect but I'm not trying to sell you on the idea to risk money or trade your combine are trying to pass a challenge on this. But let's |
| 145 | 00:28:40 --> 00:28:49 | play devil's advocate for a moment and say ICT was making the market for today, I would use the numbers that just came out now. Send us up into take out the buy |
| 146 | 00:28:49 --> 00:29:00 | side above 15,028. Maybe trade up into here and then consumer sentiment number, then send us back lower, not to close on the low of the day, that type of thing. |
| 147 | 00:29:00 --> 00:29:09 | But to run against all the movement from today's price action, at least 50% of the daily range. If it gets up to here, I would do that very thing at 10 o'clock |
| 148 | 00:29:09 --> 00:29:18 | on the news release there. So there's just ideas for you to study. Look at price action through that lens doesn't mean I'm going to be right. It doesn't mean |
| 149 | 00:29:18 --> 00:29:23 | that you should be trading with real money, but I'm just giving you something to study going forward because I don't have anything I'm going to put money on |
| 150 | 00:29:23 --> 00:29:35 | today. I don't have anything that I think that you should risk money on because it's Friday. You know, it's it's a very good practice to end. A good run with |
| 151 | 00:29:35 --> 00:29:44 | analysis real trades, whether it's in your funded account challenge, whether it be in your funded account, whether it be in your Live account, demo paper |
| 152 | 00:29:44 --> 00:29:54 | trading tape reading, if you had a good run like we've had for the last month really sit still just relax has settled down. And October is a really good |
| 153 | 00:29:54 --> 00:30:04 | month. Price Action and delivery for October in the first half of November. Are are just one of the sweetest times in price action. And we've had a lot of |
| 154 | 00:30:04 --> 00:30:12 | things move in our favor. So it's really important for you just to settle down and let the new opportunities present themselves don't be in a rush to get into |
| 155 | 00:30:12 --> 00:30:19 | what's next. Okay, this was great. I need another hit this this high is wearing off my sugar highs are wearing off, give me something else that you get all |
| 156 | 00:30:19 --> 00:30:36 | hyped up on ICT. So a neophyte a gambler, a new trader always is excited about what's the next thing a professional is minded, minding, rather their business |
| 157 | 00:30:37 --> 00:30:48 | and also studying what they just did? Did they do all things correctly, that they follow their processes that they follow their model? Are they feeling |
| 158 | 00:30:48 --> 00:30:57 | impulsive? Are they trying to chase a new high, a new equity high, a new emotional high, a new psychological barrier to be breached, so that way you can |
| 159 | 00:30:57 --> 00:31:09 | feel like a champion. Professionally minded traders don't think that way. neophytes Instagram traders, you know that type of people, they are experience |
| 160 | 00:31:09 --> 00:31:19 | driven, for the sake of the experience versus the sake of following the model and being sober minded in their decision making. It's a stark contrast between |
| 161 | 00:31:19 --> 00:31:29 | the two. And if you feel impulsive, if you feel excited about taking a new trade or find it in a new setup, your mindset is not in its right place. It needs the |
| 162 | 00:31:29 --> 00:31:37 | boring, it needs to be absolutely boring. And once you do all the right things all week long in the markets closed and you can't push the button and do |
| 163 | 00:31:37 --> 00:31:46 | something reckless or lose money or trade outside your model on the weekends, then you celebrate, then you allow the emotions to come in, because they can't |
| 164 | 00:31:46 --> 00:31:54 | influence you in a market trade. I'm not saying that you shouldn't celebrate that you shouldn't peacock around, you know, celebrate with your friends and |
| 165 | 00:31:54 --> 00:32:04 | family or social media, you know, family, but do that in a area where you can't feel good or hear something that would be highly critical. And then you want to |
| 166 | 00:32:04 --> 00:32:13 | go out there and give yourself a feel good moment by doing something by pushing a button that has nothing to do with your model. Okay, so that's the only reason |
| 167 | 00:32:13 --> 00:32:23 | why I'm coaching you to do this. And I'm certain that on Twitter, somebody later today, he's gonna say ICT said don't trade and look at what I did today. That's |
| 168 | 00:32:23 --> 00:32:31 | a weak minded person, that's somebody that absolutely probably just did something cherry picked. And or doesn't have consistent profitability. And they |
| 169 | 00:32:31 --> 00:32:42 | just want to feel good about themselves and tell somebody else in a position that's acting as a teacher as a mentor. Something contrarian because they don't |
| 170 | 00:32:42 --> 00:32:51 | want to listen to sound logic either. And the reward that rebellion, or that rebellious mindset, they'll do something that they didn't really, really miss |
| 171 | 00:32:51 --> 00:32:59 | risk money on. But then they'll take that and they'll toss it in the ring and say, but look at this, this like folks will say, I teach don't trade on Mondays, |
| 172 | 00:33:00 --> 00:33:07 | or don't trade on Fridays. That's not true. There are many times I'm telling you to trade on Mondays, when there's a time when you can trade on Mondays on |
| 173 | 00:33:07 --> 00:33:18 | nonfarm payroll, that week of trading. That's a definite Monday trading day. But apart from that, the only other time is if there's an FOMC announcement, right |
| 174 | 00:33:18 --> 00:33:24 | announcement, that type of thing later in the week, usually on Wednesday, or Thursday. That's a definite treat on Monday. That's a definite Absolutely, I'm |
| 175 | 00:33:24 --> 00:33:30 | going in there and I'm pushing a button, I'm trying to make real money. That's the way it is. That's what my students understand. But when you take one thing |
| 176 | 00:33:30 --> 00:33:39 | that maybe a soundbite or clip or something I've taken and put into a tweet, and you can completely add a context, it's easy for these individuals to run around |
| 177 | 00:33:39 --> 00:33:47 | with these false narratives. And say, I said this, or I said that or this is what I believe about the market or but you shouldn't or shouldn't do this. So |
| 178 | 00:33:47 --> 00:33:56 | that's what being mentored is. properly done, you get to spend time with that person that's teaching. You just can't watch one video or read a few tweets or |
| 179 | 00:33:56 --> 00:34:05 | an opinion or opinions of people out there that are failed traders, and nobody really cares about their opinion. But they want to stir up drama. For the for |
| 180 | 00:34:05 --> 00:34:14 | the argumentative side that would be opposing. What is it on teaching or anybody else's stuff for that matter. That's why trolls exist trolls exist because they |
| 181 | 00:34:14 --> 00:34:24 | suck. They're not able to do anything themselves. And they want to detract so that makes them significant. So in these periods after we've had a really good |
| 182 | 00:34:24 --> 00:34:37 | run, you want to sit and and really forge this confidence that it will provide you if you allow it by not chasing the next opportunity, because it might not be |
| 183 | 00:34:37 --> 00:34:48 | there today. It might not. It could be it could be a huge run and be completely against what I'm suggesting that might be a good study here. It may not even go |
| 184 | 00:34:48 --> 00:35:02 | up to 15,000 at all. You might just you know I'm sorry 15,020 at all. Yeah, this is could have already made the high here the 30 News spin in 1030, we run lower |
| 185 | 00:35:02 --> 00:35:17 | and go for the sell side down here or here. And there it is. Okay, how am I going to lose any money on that? I'm not. How am I going to lose face and clout |
| 186 | 00:35:17 --> 00:35:25 | as an educator that happened, and that because I told you, I'm not trading. Now I'm telling you why I'm not trading. Because I'm content, my analysis has been |
| 187 | 00:35:25 --> 00:35:35 | bang on, like it's been straight right to the point, getting right to the targets. And it's been behaving like that. And you, as a developing student need |
| 188 | 00:35:35 --> 00:35:45 | to sit in, look at the charts and think about what we have anticipated before the fact and how it delivered. That is confidence building is not meant to be |
| 189 | 00:35:45 --> 00:35:53 | arrogant, it's not meant for you to go on to other people's live streams, or YouTube comment sections or their Twitter and tell them they are trading |
| 190 | 00:35:53 --> 00:36:04 | something less than superior. Because you're trading with this information, that stuff needs to stop. Because it's that it's the same thing that I was just |
| 191 | 00:36:04 --> 00:36:12 | talking about, you're trying to create significance in yourself on the wrong pretense, like you're you're you're trying to use this new skill sets that |
| 192 | 00:36:12 --> 00:36:18 | you're requiring, and you're trying to treat it like a sharp stick. So you can go around and poke everybody with it. Nobody, nobody cares, especially if |
| 193 | 00:36:18 --> 00:36:26 | they're making money. They don't care what you're trading. And if it works or not, they don't care. Because if someone's making money, they have a model. And |
| 194 | 00:36:26 --> 00:36:34 | if they're wise, they won't try to change it, and nothing's going to make them want to do anything to change their model. That's a professionally minded |
| 195 | 00:36:34 --> 00:36:45 | trader. That's what I'm trying to secure in your thought process. So once you get a model, and you make it as simple as possible, you're not trying to bring |
| 196 | 00:36:45 --> 00:36:52 | all the moving parts that I offer in terms of teaching, you make it a very simple approach to trading. You know, when you're looking for it, what time of |
| 197 | 00:36:52 --> 00:37:00 | the day you're trading it, what instrument you're going to trade, what market, what timeframe. And you're just going to mind your own business, and work in |
| 198 | 00:37:00 --> 00:37:08 | that little small, little area. And when you get a setup, you're all over it. If you have a setup and you lose no problem, it doesn't mean the models broken |
| 199 | 00:37:08 --> 00:37:14 | doesn't mean you'd go out there and get somebody to pat you on the back and say, Don't worry, honey, it's going to be okay. That that's not necessary with a |
| 200 | 00:37:14 --> 00:37:20 | professionally minded trader, they accept the fact that there's going to be losing trade stakes, they accept the fact that as the mechanic, the person |
| 201 | 00:37:20 --> 00:37:30 | behind it, the operator of the model, the person pushing the button, the responsibility solely rests on them. Versus someone that wants to blame anyone |
| 202 | 00:37:30 --> 00:37:42 | everything outside of themselves, because they're not personally responsible. So anyway, let's drop down here into financial aid and see what this thing is |
| 203 | 00:37:42 --> 00:37:42 | trying to do here |
| 204 | 00:37:50 --> 00:37:56 | it still could pop up there that 15,020 see if it will do it. |
| 205 | 00:38:13 --> 00:38:22 | Alright, so see that, see that wick right here? We're hovering right around the halfway point or consequent encouragement, the fact that this candle closed |
| 206 | 00:38:22 --> 00:38:33 | above it, I would like to see it not trade back down to the lower end, or lower half of that wick. I'd like to see it expand up and drive into that level right |
| 207 | 00:38:33 --> 00:38:35 | there and want a five minute chart so. |
| 208 | 00:38:52 --> 00:39:01 | Can you see how we're hovering around that? This candle closed above it? When I see that and I have an objective or a draw on liquidity, that's likely to be a |
| 209 | 00:39:01 --> 00:39:10 | reason for the market to want to draw up to. And this is reverse to for when I'm bearish. And there's a big candle like this, when I see that. And then the very |
| 210 | 00:39:10 --> 00:39:19 | next candle, I'm watching whatever that timeframe is, it's all respective to whatever timeframe you're watching. So it's not limited just to a five minute |
| 211 | 00:39:19 --> 00:39:31 | chart. It's universal. It's something that I would expect in reading any timeframe. So if I'm watching like a 15 second chart, whether I'm watching a one |
| 212 | 00:39:31 --> 00:39:41 | minute chart or an hourly chart, whatever timeframe, if I had the drawn liquidity in mind that I'd like to see deliver. If that's what's in my mind, I |
| 213 | 00:39:41 --> 00:39:53 | think it could reach for and we see a wick like this. Many other traders would see this as scary and problematic. Like it could potentially start to reverse. I |
| 214 | 00:39:53 --> 00:40:06 | don't subscribe to that view. And I get further along in my belief that algorithm will reprice those by stops here. If this candle that's immediately |
| 215 | 00:40:06 --> 00:40:16 | after the wick forms. If it can close above the midpoint that it just means that there's potential for follow through. Now there's two things you can do with |
| 216 | 00:40:16 --> 00:40:27 | that information, you can do it as a, if you're a real, real, real short term scalper, you can do things like this watch, I'll go into a one minute chart. And |
| 217 | 00:40:27 --> 00:40:37 | while prices hitting this right here, a real small Ultra cert short term, high frequency trading algorithm would be the be buying it when it hit here. And then |
| 218 | 00:40:37 --> 00:40:48 | using this high as your target, just do like a half a point, since we're doing futures, like a half a point below that your limit order would be there. And |
| 219 | 00:40:48 --> 00:40:56 | that in itself, you're doing more than most people on social media, if you could just do that. Most people don't have an ability to find where price should |
| 220 | 00:40:57 --> 00:41:05 | gravitate to where it should turn around what what real support resistance would be looking like. And if you follow the stuff that's in books that classically |
| 221 | 00:41:05 --> 00:41:14 | defined Support Resistance, that to me is math, that's random, okay, because there's so many different interpretations of what support resistance should be. |
| 222 | 00:41:15 --> 00:41:27 | And they don't all behave the same way. And one of the things that I've tried to do over the years is to try to create a language where I can communicate to |
| 223 | 00:41:27 --> 00:41:38 | myself in my journaling, and also, when I was younger, expecting to be a father at some time, right? If I had children, how can I talk to them and communicate |
| 224 | 00:41:38 --> 00:41:49 | in a way where these candlesticks tell a story. And there's a narrative behind what it is that they're doing. And that way, we don't fall victim to just moving |
| 225 | 00:41:49 --> 00:42:04 | around for the sake of short term randomness, because I do believe, like, in very, very small timeframes, when in, in consolidations, that's where, I guess, |
| 226 | 00:42:04 --> 00:42:14 | quote, unquote, randomness can occur. Because during those periods, it's time distortion. And time distortion is where the market is not being permitted to |
| 227 | 00:42:14 --> 00:42:26 | move is not being allowed to displace higher or lower and start running. So in these very, very small timeframes, sub five minutes, whatever, and you get these |
| 228 | 00:42:26 --> 00:42:41 | little consolidations in price action, that is time distortion, it's being held for a news event to hit the marketplace. It's being held for a session close. |
| 229 | 00:42:41 --> 00:42:53 | Like if you watch out that last few minutes of trading new after 4pm. In New York session, many times you'll see the market just start marking time basically |
| 230 | 00:42:53 --> 00:43:01 | just going sideways isn't doing anything. That's time distortion, the algorithm is not operating anymore. It's this a set a range high and it's at a range low. |
| 231 | 00:43:01 --> 00:43:08 | And they just let it meander back and forth. It's not seeking liquidity there, it's not going after anybody stops buying and selling pressure has no influence |
| 232 | 00:43:08 --> 00:43:21 | over it's just simply limiting its range in delivery. That's it. It's done. But during market hours, the algorithm will absolutely be seeking liquidity, it will |
| 233 | 00:43:21 --> 00:43:32 | be running off of macros that are short little scripts and market code, okay. And all these things will be firing, causing price to move. And it has nothing |
| 234 | 00:43:32 --> 00:43:43 | to do with how many people bought it or how many people sold it. Right. So look at the reaction here. We went just about that wick here, despite a little bit. |
| 235 | 00:43:44 --> 00:43:55 | We're pulling back now looking at all of this run here. Look at all this price delivery right there. Is there any inefficiency? make it larger? So you can see |
| 236 | 00:43:56 --> 00:44:09 | from this candles high right here. down to that low. Is there any inefficiencies in price? Fairway gaps, at least one thing? From this candle to this candle? No. |
| 237 | 00:44:09 --> 00:44:28 | From this candle to the left? No, from this candle to the left. Now, from this cancel the left no, from this candle to this. Yes. You see it that small little |
| 238 | 00:44:28 --> 00:44:28 | one right here |
| 239 | 00:44:36 --> 00:44:49 | see that? This is the only inefficiency in this price run here. This one's kind of like the same. Let me see what the highest on that one is 80 and a half. Low |
| 240 | 00:44:49 --> 00:45:01 | is as even. So it's no inefficiency or no gap there. So it's our immediate rebalance. Which is perfect for me to segue right into that Sorry, the run here, |
| 241 | 00:45:02 --> 00:45:10 | open traded down whenever we see this, this is one of the things I teach. It's an immediate rebalance, you're not going to see that in any kind of books. |
| 242 | 00:45:10 --> 00:45:17 | Crisler, you don't even talk about it. And a lot of people try to say I teach this stuff. It's not a neutral secret story come out here doing this. But that |
| 243 | 00:45:17 --> 00:45:28 | is an immediate rebalance. That means it's soon as it does that, you're going to see sudden price delivery. Real quick. You tell me, Okay, does that look like it |
| 244 | 00:45:28 --> 00:45:40 | once it gets somewhere after it did an immediate rebalance? Of course it does. where's it gonna go to that high. We can anticipate an entry here, a pyramid |
| 245 | 00:45:40 --> 00:45:52 | entry here. Or if you miss this run, as I outlined live, that it's consolidating around that consequent encroachment of the higher timeframe. Candlestick wick, |
| 246 | 00:45:52 --> 00:46:05 | that's what I was measuring on that. And came down hit it rallied up just to take out the high. It did. So here, no inefficiencies at all. And I want to see |
| 247 | 00:46:05 --> 00:46:14 | personally I want to see price state above consequent coachmen that I'll that'll tell me, this is where we're going to run for at the 930. If we break down below |
| 248 | 00:46:14 --> 00:46:24 | it, then it's probably going to need to trade into this area here, which is of no consequence that maybe because I could care less. But let's say I was trading |
| 249 | 00:46:24 --> 00:46:33 | this morning, and I wanted to trade the New York, opening bell at 930 10 o'clock, and I wanted to do something, okay. Or I want the tape read, okay, or I |
| 250 | 00:46:33 --> 00:46:44 | want to do a demo account execution for practice. And I don't want to take real risk. Or I just want to sit down my youngest son's not with me this morning. But |
| 251 | 00:46:44 --> 00:46:55 | if I wanted to sit with him in practice executions, and we're reading the tape with them, I would use the information I'm showing you here, for 930. For this |
| 252 | 00:46:55 --> 00:47:03 | run up here, the higher probability trade set up would be for price to stay. And it can do what it just did there. It can wick down below that, but just I don't |
| 253 | 00:47:03 --> 00:47:11 | want to see the close of that candle, see where it stopped. See that? See that started right there? That's good. I like that. But if it traded down and close |
| 254 | 00:47:11 --> 00:47:23 | below that, then this is a fact that it needs to be revisited. But that break there that close and look at the reaction right there. That little response |
| 255 | 00:47:23 --> 00:47:32 | right there. That's an algorithm that's doing that. That's not buyers and sellers, okay. That's these things I'm talking about. There's a signature and |
| 256 | 00:47:32 --> 00:47:41 | price. And when you know where you're supposed to be expecting them to form, when to anticipate their delivery, what they should be performing, what should |
| 257 | 00:47:41 --> 00:47:54 | they offer in terms of support or resistance should incite the algorithm to start repricing to a specific direction or a specific price level? And these PD |
| 258 | 00:47:54 --> 00:48:05 | raise in the right narrative? So that way, when you understand what price is likely to do, it'll tell you how fast it should deliver, like, should it be a |
| 259 | 00:48:05 --> 00:48:17 | slow meandering delivery, where it just just keeps on creeping? Or does it go like, well, it runs real quick and takes off. That part, like I can't write a |
| 260 | 00:48:17 --> 00:48:27 | book, that's going to be able to clearly show you that, like you have to see it live, you have to see examples of it. And when I do executions, even when it was |
| 261 | 00:48:27 --> 00:48:38 | in demo, the purposes were for you to go back and study and see where those things are that repeat that I teach. And how does that how's that used in price |
| 262 | 00:48:38 --> 00:48:46 | for that particular trade? What elements of the things that I teach in price action, we're in that trade setup that I took. And for a long time, people were |
| 263 | 00:48:46 --> 00:48:55 | complaining about how its demo demo demo, it only works in demo, apparently. And then I started trading with a real account, and then there's crickets, you know, |
| 264 | 00:48:55 --> 00:49:07 | never going to be able to satisfy everybody. So I like the idea that this candlestick came down. Just about half of that candlestick. That would be mean |
| 265 | 00:49:07 --> 00:49:18 | threshold because we're talking about a body. So it's not an inefficiency. But because it's Friday, because it's a day, I'm trying to remind you not to take |
| 266 | 00:49:18 --> 00:49:27 | this stuff. I know some of you right now are pushing buttons, because you hear me talking on you and you are being convinced that what I'm saying here is just |
| 267 | 00:49:27 --> 00:49:36 | enough for you to get into a trade. I'm telling you don't do that. Don't do that. This is the part that I didn't want to do this morning, but I'm trying to |
| 268 | 00:49:36 --> 00:49:48 | be generous to you because I wasn't with y'all yesterday. In a perfect world, it should run higher rate from here. If it were say it was a Thursday, not Friday, |
| 269 | 00:49:49 --> 00:49:59 | I would already be net long. And my limit order would be just below here. And I would have a best case scenario up into this up here. That's how I handle that |
| 270 | 00:49:59 --> 00:50:07 | but It's Friday, I'm not trading it on that live, you're not going to have a, here's a dose, I was secretly doing my trading, I wouldn't, I'm not doing it |
| 271 | 00:50:07 --> 00:50:18 | here. And it's telling you how to read how to practice it, and use the day without taking on risk. The best case scenario would be the state above in this |
| 272 | 00:50:18 --> 00:50:30 | range here prior to 930. And if it does that, then I would like to see price, run this area here after nine at 930, or just after 930 Going into 10 o'clock. |
| 273 | 00:50:31 --> 00:50:43 | But then at 10 o'clock, I think that we could see it, retrace it throughout the remainder of the pm session, and go lower and attack all the price delivery that |
| 274 | 00:50:43 --> 00:50:48 | we've seen so far from the London hours all the way through to pre market |
| 275 | 00:50:56 --> 00:51:02 | saw you folks this thought that it was gonna be I'm gonna open up an account and I'm gonna be able to walk out here and start making money, it's gonna be easy. |
| 276 | 00:51:02 --> 00:51:08 | So a lot of things you have to weigh out in it. That's why it's difficult. It's the hardest easy money you'll ever make. |
| 277 | 00:51:17 --> 00:51:30 | Now, another thing for your notes today. Whenever you have to high impact news drivers apologize. Whenever there's two high impact news drivers in the in the |
| 278 | 00:51:30 --> 00:51:39 | same session, like we have 830 News driver to this has already hit the market 830. And then we have one at 10 o'clock. Whenever that happens. Whenever that's |
| 279 | 00:51:39 --> 00:51:47 | in the economic calendar, my mind immediately goes to in case you're wondering, like why would I say 10 o'clock news should be used to go against everything |
| 280 | 00:51:47 --> 00:52:04 | that's going on. Think about it like this. If a terrorist was going to lay a bomb down, okay. And they do it this way, they go into a busy area where a |
| 281 | 00:52:04 --> 00:52:17 | marketplace or a storefront and they they set a small charge up. And when that charge goes off, what's going to happen, everybody is going to run away from |
| 282 | 00:52:17 --> 00:52:30 | that point of impact, right. And they all run to a location where the larger bomb is, so that when there's more casualties, okay. In my mind, the way I |
| 283 | 00:52:30 --> 00:52:45 | internalize what they do, is much like what I teach with FOMC. Much like I teach with Non Farm Payroll. Those are financial bombs. Okay, they're literally placed |
| 284 | 00:52:45 --> 00:52:56 | in the marketplace. They're algorithmically delivered. And what happens is, one news driver sends price, you know, careening one direction. That's that first |
| 285 | 00:52:56 --> 00:53:10 | explosion. Okay, so, at 830, what would it price do down here? Running right, we have a potential pool of liquidity up here where price could could gravitate to |
| 286 | 00:53:10 --> 00:53:14 | right. And I'm suggesting to you as long as we're in the upper half. |
| 287 | 00:53:27 --> 00:53:39 | As long as we're in this area here, going into 930, I favored the idea that we could run up in here and sweep that out. And on some kind of momentum, |
| 288 | 00:53:39 --> 00:53:49 | overzealous price delivery, your best case scenario would be up into this area here, this inefficiency on the higher timeframe. But I'm not willing to take |
| 289 | 00:53:49 --> 00:54:02 | that trade today. Because it's Friday. And it's the it's going against my mindset about content with what I've done. And if I did something this morning, |
| 290 | 00:54:04 --> 00:54:13 | and it wasn't profitable, or if I outline something, and call it like on Twitter, and it doesn't pan out. It'll be in my head all weekend, when I knew I |
| 291 | 00:54:13 --> 00:54:18 | shouldn't have touched it, I wouldn't, I shouldn't have done it. So hearing me talk about it live over the chart. That way, it gives you a little bit more |
| 292 | 00:54:18 --> 00:54:27 | understanding of why I'm not taking the trade. But I'm also using the opportunity to teach you real time. What I would do if it was say like a |
| 293 | 00:54:27 --> 00:54:42 | Thursday wasn't the end of the week. Okay. But that 10 O'Clock News driver in price running up to this level here and maybe maybe spiking up beyond it to get |
| 294 | 00:54:42 --> 00:54:54 | into this inefficiency here. I would use if I was making the market. I would use the 10 o'clock hour. That news and the sentiment after seeing Traders See it |
| 295 | 00:54:54 --> 00:55:06 | rallying from 830 and at 10 o'clock we see it going higher, what is the public gonna do? What's the street money going to be thinking? Street money is gonna be |
| 296 | 00:55:06 --> 00:55:16 | like, I want to be long, right? I want to be long. That's the very logic that I used on Wednesday to explain to you why we're trading where we're at right now. |
| 297 | 00:55:17 --> 00:55:28 | through Thursday, now Friday's initial trading, because I'm waiting for those wrestling matches when the sentiment of retail, the collective that is called |
| 298 | 00:55:28 --> 00:55:35 | retail trading, the street money, the quote, unquote, dumb money. And I don't mean that to be ignorant, but that's just what it is. I mean, I came from that |
| 299 | 00:55:35 --> 00:55:46 | too, right? Everybody is that when you first start, I'm waiting for the time period where what I'm anticipating that the algorithm will do, how it runs on |
| 300 | 00:55:46 --> 00:55:56 | specific narratives and emits macros, and the time of day, it does certain things using the economic calendar, just like a TV Guide. Okay, you can, you can |
| 301 | 00:55:56 --> 00:56:09 | anticipate the sentiment shifts, that the retail trader, and collectively the traders will think and how they're, they will perceive price, before it even |
| 302 | 00:56:09 --> 00:56:19 | happens. So you're really not only predicting the future, but you're reading other people's minds in the future, which is an amazing skill set to have. And |
| 303 | 00:56:19 --> 00:56:30 | that's why this industry is so fascinating, because it's really a study of psychology. It's more a study of psychology than it is of a game of chance or |
| 304 | 00:56:30 --> 00:56:43 | risk. And I think if you approach your, your initial stages of learning, with that mindset, that approach the internalizing how prices being booked, and why |
| 305 | 00:56:43 --> 00:56:54 | it would be booked like that, what what would be the instigation of price doing a specific thing? What would be the the catalysts will be the driver of that |
| 306 | 00:56:54 --> 00:57:02 | doing that very thing? What will be the cause and effect? What will be the repercussions of price doing a very specific thing? And how would the losing |
| 307 | 00:57:02 --> 00:57:14 | crowd the the retail minded trader? How would he fall victim to it. Because that's what this game is about. Every large fund manager is still a retail |
| 308 | 00:57:14 --> 00:57:24 | trader, there's they're literally trading on retail concepts. It's amazing it when you sit down and see what they're doing. They're doing the same stuff that |
| 309 | 00:57:24 --> 00:57:36 | everybody has in these books. They're just doing it on a larger scale, on the higher timeframe charts in in just allowing for more time to eventually move the |
| 310 | 00:57:36 --> 00:57:47 | market in their favor. That's all that's happening. Now that the proprietary firms out there that have their own algorithms that they're running in the |
| 311 | 00:57:47 --> 00:57:57 | marketplace that trade off of small short term fluctuations in price action, they are not using retail logic, they're using a lot of the things that I'm |
| 312 | 00:57:57 --> 00:58:05 | talking about here today, the framework is around how they can get into bite sized pieces. Okay, there's a there's a fish, and I may not be seeing it |
| 313 | 00:58:05 --> 00:58:16 | actually, I don't know if it's considered a small shark or whatnot. But in the ocean, there's this little tiny I'm just gonna say fish, okay, but it might be a |
| 314 | 00:58:16 --> 00:58:25 | technically a shark. What it does is it runs out real quick, on everything out there, it'll do it to a killer whale, it'll do it to a blue whale, it'll do it |
| 315 | 00:58:25 --> 00:58:35 | to a shark, it'll do it to a barracuda to any fish tuna. But it runs out real quick and bangs into it and it takes a perfect circular bite out of them. And |
| 316 | 00:58:35 --> 00:58:44 | that's all it takes hits it runs. And you can see other fish and other living organisms in the ocean that have been eaten by this thing. They're not consuming |
| 317 | 00:58:44 --> 00:58:53 | the entire thing. And the wound isn't many times a fatal wound. But they're losing a piece other than themselves. And they sustain themselves by simply |
| 318 | 00:58:53 --> 00:59:02 | going in and getting one bite. That's what these proprietary algorithms do. They go into the marketplace to take these little bites here and there at points that |
| 319 | 00:59:02 --> 00:59:12 | when the market makes it available to it, it will work and engage it that way. Whereas a long term, large hedge fund manager, they're not looking for these |
| 320 | 00:59:12 --> 00:59:22 | little surgical strikes. They're looking for big long term massive price swings, because they don't want to have their clients constantly calling up Hey, what |
| 321 | 00:59:22 --> 00:59:31 | are you doing? Like my equity is going up and down a lot. They don't want that they want a very very slow smooth equity curve. And if it takes all year long to |
| 322 | 00:59:31 --> 00:59:41 | get 15 to 25% That's exactly how they want to engage price they want to engage then utilize their assets under management like that because they don't want |
| 323 | 00:59:41 --> 00:59:50 | their clients to be hopped up on goofballs or fearing and freaking out because of the the normal fluctuations in price action. We as a speculator when we're |
| 324 | 00:59:50 --> 00:59:59 | watching price action. We're whether you'd like to believe it this way or not, but this is the reality. You are inviting roller coaster volatility you want |
| 325 | 00:59:59 --> 01:00:07 | that you want to see See that and you're okay with seeing your your account going higher and lower, because you're in anticipating that eventually you're |
| 326 | 01:00:07 --> 01:00:17 | going to get to a big explosive price run, that you'll be hopefully on side and capture that big run. And it'll be profitable for you. But what you end up |
| 327 | 01:00:17 --> 01:00:27 | incurring is a lot of those little tiny little fish that come up here in the bank and you bite your account. And then you make a big to do about that, and |
| 328 | 01:00:27 --> 01:00:34 | you think that's failure, or you get mad about it, like, I'm the only one that can come in here and take it out, I'm the only one that can take the profits |
| 329 | 01:00:34 --> 01:00:42 | out, Nobody's allowed to take anything from me, that's not realistic, to go into this industry, thinking that you're not going to have a little piece of your ass |
| 330 | 01:00:42 --> 01:00:49 | taken here and there is unrealistic. So you have to accept the fact that you're going to get bid, you're going to get chomped on, you're going to you're going |
| 331 | 01:00:49 --> 01:01:00 | to miss out on a limb, here and there, you know, one week at a month, or half a month, or you might just get through the month in one day gets you back to |
| 332 | 01:01:00 --> 01:01:08 | breakeven, you know what that means? You're a better trader than most people out there. Because most people are net loss at the end of the month, at the end of |
| 333 | 01:01:08 --> 01:01:18 | the week, at the end of the day. As soon as they get their live account. They're done, because they don't know what they're doing. So it's really important that |
| 334 | 01:01:18 --> 01:01:27 | you have realistic expectations that you give yourself the time required to learn this, and don't put so much emphasis on being perfect in the beginning, |
| 335 | 01:01:27 --> 01:01:37 | but also learning how the market should book and who would be who would be in a position to to gain by a market delivering a specific way go into a specific |
| 336 | 01:01:37 --> 01:01:49 | high, who would get hurt there? And why would them specifically being hurt at that time? How would that be used advantageously by another group of speculators |
| 337 | 01:01:49 --> 01:01:58 | in the marketplace? What would be that narrative? So I try to teach that to my students. And I'm trying to teach you the the building blocks over here. And |
| 338 | 01:01:59 --> 01:02:07 | there are going to be days where it'll look like it's wonderful, where the opportunities are going to be bountiful. And as soon as you get in the |
| 339 | 01:02:07 --> 01:02:17 | marketplace, all everything goes fuzzy, he becomes uncertain, your model doesn't look as so one sided, as it did before you put the trade on. |
| 340 | 01:02:18 --> 01:02:28 | In those instances, as soon as you feel that, okay. And if you're new, and you haven't been doing for a long time, the first thing you should do is immediately |
| 341 | 01:02:28 --> 01:02:38 | cut the risk in half. If you can't do it, because you're only doing one of the smallest lot sizes or contracts, then close the trade. It's not, it's not |
| 342 | 01:02:39 --> 01:02:48 | beneficial for you in the beginning early stages, for you to wrestle through uncertainty in spending, not only the capital that's in the account, whether it |
| 343 | 01:02:48 --> 01:03:00 | be demo, or a combine, or a funded account, or funded with a funding count company, or life funds, it's not worth doing that in the early stages, because |
| 344 | 01:03:00 --> 01:03:08 | that damage, where it's reasonable to expect that little tiny fish to come in here and take a chunk of your ass and you lose something that's that's this |
| 345 | 01:03:08 --> 01:03:15 | business folks. You're in the ocean now. And you're in here and you're trading, you're in here with other things that have teeth. And you're going to lose |
| 346 | 01:03:15 --> 01:03:24 | limbs, fingers toes, it's going to happen, okay? And you're going to have to still find a way to swim, or you're eaten eaten, or you're going to sink and |
| 347 | 01:03:24 --> 01:03:41 | then when you sink, the bottom feeders consume you. But you can't escape. You know, something not biting you eventually having this mindset that you want |
| 348 | 01:03:41 --> 01:03:52 | everything to be one sided on your trades. And as soon as they become potentially not so one sided. The first rule thought should be okay, number one |
| 349 | 01:03:52 --> 01:04:04 | rule in trading is preserved capital. That means, okay, this trade is not so obvious to me right now. It looked really good. It wanted to go to this specific |
| 350 | 01:04:04 --> 01:04:12 | level. But now it hasn't done so it hasn't performed that way. But it hasn't really done enough that make me think that it's entirely wrong. It's just the |
| 351 | 01:04:12 --> 01:04:22 | little and I'm a little unsure about it. Now. When that happens, cut the trade in half. Or if you can't cut it in half, close it and then observe it study |
| 352 | 01:04:22 --> 01:04:31 | don't walk away from it thinking Oh, whatever. Or get mad about because it didn't deliver like you wanted to watch it. Still try to get the experience from |
| 353 | 01:04:31 --> 01:04:42 | it with no risk. If it moves in your favor. Okay, great. You kept yourself from spending mech, mental capital, which many times is much more important than the |
| 354 | 01:04:42 --> 01:04:50 | actual capital in your account because that can easily be replaced with working a second job, you know, putting money from your savings into it, you know, if |
| 355 | 01:04:50 --> 01:04:58 | you have a business taking something that you sell, and applying it to your your account that that part's easy, you know, it's hard, getting back the mental |
| 356 | 01:04:58 --> 01:05:09 | capital that you cause have a deficit in in bankruptcy of completely not trusting your model anymore because of one event, which one event doesn't change |
| 357 | 01:05:09 --> 01:05:18 | or upset any model? In my opinion, I don't care if it's even retail stuff. Your one event one losing trade one transaction didn't pan out, doesn't undermine the |
| 358 | 01:05:18 --> 01:05:30 | efficacy of anything. But many times you're gonna find out and you probably are, if you agree to me, being honest right now, you would think that this is what |
| 359 | 01:05:30 --> 01:05:37 | you're wrestling with right now. And whenever you have these short term adversities, you think that everything's changing the algorithms changing ICTs |
| 360 | 01:05:37 --> 01:05:45 | got too many students, now, they're changing the algorithm. Now they're not. They're not going to do that. Okay, trust me, they're not going to do it, the |
| 361 | 01:05:45 --> 01:05:55 | markets will stop, they won't be available to us to trade before that would ever happen. Okay, you're literally talking about the donor lining mechanics of how |
| 362 | 01:05:55 --> 01:06:08 | prices book. They're not changing it is the way it is okay. All right. So we have one candlestick down here, that close below it. And then we have this one |
| 363 | 01:06:08 --> 01:06:13 | here, mentioned how it could draw down to that little tiny little inefficiency, it didn't touch it, I would have liked to have seen it hit that actually, |
| 364 | 01:06:13 --> 01:06:18 | personally, but it's Friday, right? It's Friday |
| 365 | 01:06:23 --> 01:06:37 | night, so it's about nine minutes, almost after nine o'clock. I'm in overtime with y'all for free, like that. Alright, so see how many times we've poked above |
| 366 | 01:06:37 --> 01:06:55 | here. Here, here, here, nobody's had been allowed the breach that Hi. Just the wicks. Now in my mind, you see this here |
| 367 | 01:07:08 --> 01:07:19 | some of you might see that as the model 2022, where it's a shift in market structure here, going up into a fair value gap, sell short, and then wait for it |
| 368 | 01:07:19 --> 01:07:31 | to keep going down lower. I would not take this trade using that logic. Even if it does deliver and say it goes lower. I don't care about that. Because there's |
| 369 | 01:07:31 --> 01:07:44 | a 10 o'clock high impact news driver looming. It's Friday. The idea that it could squeeze up there even more and why would that be advantageous? Because |
| 370 | 01:07:44 --> 01:07:55 | longer term the market has been going were down the last two months or so or month and a half we've seen lower prices. So if we are in fact and let's play |
| 371 | 01:07:55 --> 01:08:02 | devil's advocate for a moment, just for the sake of this discussion, let's just say I'm right just this time, okay. And we do go lower longer term say in |
| 372 | 01:08:02 --> 01:08:11 | November we're lower than we will to on Wednesday of this week here. If that's the case and say for the sake of discussion that I'm right and it goes that |
| 373 | 01:08:11 --> 01:08:25 | lower price in into November we go lower wherever it would be advantageous for the market to go above these highs here because it would do what run by stops. |
| 374 | 01:08:25 --> 01:08:37 | Why would that be advantageous? Because those five stops could be used for what short entries for folks that want to do what build in positions that eventually |
| 375 | 01:08:37 --> 01:08:51 | will be underwater for Long's but profitable for them if we do take out Wednesday's low so I use that idea in thought process coupled with the fact that |
| 376 | 01:08:51 --> 01:09:04 | we have two high impact news drivers in the same session whenever we have that there's like this two stage delivery one two used to spur on a move or continue |
| 377 | 01:09:04 --> 01:09:09 | something that like we've seen since London what is price done in London |
| 378 | 01:09:24 --> 01:09:32 | Okay, three o'clock in here we rallied came back down in to inefficiency I'll I'll go back into a high timeframe show you what that isn't a moment. For those |
| 379 | 01:09:32 --> 01:09:43 | that don't know remember what this is. Then we rallied again in between seven o'clock and 830 News driver comes out 830 What is it used for? To continue what |
| 380 | 01:09:43 --> 01:09:53 | has already been in play since London? Okay, that means supercharger hire Wonderful. Great. But we still have what we have that 10 O'Clock News, and it's |
| 381 | 01:09:53 --> 01:10:09 | Friday. So there's a lot of maybe couldn't be right But maybe you can be wrong. And I know that these are days that because it's to market drivers, I might not |
| 382 | 01:10:09 --> 01:10:20 | have the second at 10 o'clock, pegged, they could use 10 o'clock to send it through even higher, because it's Friday, because they want to squeeze, squeeze, |
| 383 | 01:10:20 --> 01:10:32 | squeeze, squeeze, squeeze up into all the trail by stops, because that's where liquidity would be for someone to buy it from them at a higher price. Smart |
| 384 | 01:10:32 --> 01:10:43 | Money, if I'm right, and we're going lower than Wednesday's low this week, if I'm accurate on that assessment, that belief that opinion, and that's the I'm |
| 385 | 01:10:43 --> 01:10:50 | not trying to make the case that I am right on this submitting to the idea that what I do and how I'm reading price and how I use the economic calendar. And |
| 386 | 01:10:50 --> 01:11:01 | when there's two drivers in the same session, we're not talking about a high impact news event that 830 And then something at two o'clock, there's two of |
| 387 | 01:11:01 --> 01:11:16 | them in the same session, the morning session, the am session, because of that. My concern is that they used London to send it higher, which was in sympathy of |
| 388 | 01:11:16 --> 01:11:27 | what I outlined Thursday would be, which would be a retracement higher 830 They send in more volatility and sends it higher. And now we have that looming 10 |
| 389 | 01:11:27 --> 01:11:39 | o'clock news. So I would not want to trade ahead of that because it can be utilized. As I'm outlining here, I am completely content with being wrong. If I |
| 390 | 01:11:39 --> 01:11:50 | miss a move on content, because I'm trusting the logic, and I'm not going to feel, Oh, I missed out on that move. Whereas some of you might think that's |
| 391 | 01:11:50 --> 01:11:57 | occurring, because maybe I've done something in the past where I said, I think this level is going to trade too. And it doesn't do it. Oh, you know, ICTs FOMO |
| 392 | 01:11:57 --> 01:12:08 | right now, no, I'm not. I don't care. Because I know what I'm looking for. And I know when I can potentially be wrong. And if I am wrong, it doesn't change |
| 393 | 01:12:08 --> 01:12:17 | anything, it just means that that was nothing for me to take money out of. I couldn't use that, for my advantage. I couldn't use that for a means of |
| 394 | 01:12:18 --> 01:12:30 | harvesting any profit from the marketplace. And being right or wrong has zero to do with trading profitably has nothing to do with it. But in the beginning, you |
| 395 | 01:12:30 --> 01:12:39 | equate that that's what this is. Trading properly is being right? When many times I've made money being wrong. And that's the skill set that you need to be |
| 396 | 01:12:39 --> 01:12:51 | working towards saving and keeping money in your account when you're wrong. How often have you thought about doing it? Think about that? How often are you |
| 397 | 01:12:51 --> 01:12:58 | thinking about preserving capital? Many times you're not you're you're thinking about it when you're in a trade with with a trade that you didn't put a stop |
| 398 | 01:12:58 --> 01:13:06 | loss on wishing you would have, then you're thinking about now I wish I would have preserved some capital and use a stop loss. Because I didn't want to see |
| 399 | 01:13:06 --> 01:13:13 | this happen, I thought it was never going to happen. And it's done around 40 handles against me. And it could probably keep going up and up and up and in |
| 400 | 01:13:13 --> 01:13:21 | your mind you think it's gonna go up 500 More handles the likelihood of that happening next to zero. But in your mind, because you're doing things wrong, and |
| 401 | 01:13:21 --> 01:13:32 | you're thinking now toxically you start inviting and entertaining these unrealistic scary thoughts. And you wonder why you don't have any discipline, |
| 402 | 01:13:33 --> 01:13:44 | why you can't follow a model, because you're inviting the very things that is going to undo you as a trader. All those things that you're fearful of. They're |
| 403 | 01:13:44 --> 01:13:54 | easily managed. And some of the things that you think are likely to occur to you are probably never going to happen. But I promise you, if you don't have |
| 404 | 01:13:54 --> 01:14:05 | impeccable risk management, I promise you, if you don't use a stop loss, I promise you, if you over leverage, you're gonna blow your account. Even with my |
| 405 | 01:14:05 --> 01:14:15 | material, even with the precision stuff that I teach all these rules, you still run the risk of undoing yourself because of the character flaws that you'll |
| 406 | 01:14:15 --> 01:14:24 | bring into it. And you'll put more precedents on the things that matter the least. And not concern yourself with things that matter the most preserving |
| 407 | 01:14:24 --> 01:14:38 | capital, if you had your account through out the year, okay, you can lose a lot of losing trades. But if you were in the game long enough to let the good trades |
| 408 | 01:14:38 --> 01:14:46 | that you would eventually been in to materialize. You can be profitable. But if you don't think the way I'm talking about here if you don't think about |
| 409 | 01:14:46 --> 01:14:55 | preserving your mental capital first. So you have to be comfortable in the trade. You have to be content with what it is you're doing. There's nothing |
| 410 | 01:14:55 --> 01:15:00 | better that need to be worrying about. There's no other market that you need to be worrying about. There's no timeframe that need to be worried about There's no |
| 411 | 01:15:00 --> 01:15:08 | other setup no no other model, no other ICT post no other tweet that I'm going to be making no other video no other instructional thing there was nothing |
| 412 | 01:15:08 --> 01:15:19 | missing. I want you to watch this other video has literally just retweeted some guy asking some other students, you know, what was the most important things of |
| 413 | 01:15:19 --> 01:15:30 | the 2023 mentorship? And I'll summarize what he's asking, or she I don't know if it's a guy or gal. Give me a shortcut. I don't want to waste my time. Don't |
| 414 | 01:15:30 --> 01:15:38 | watch my stuff. If that's the mentality you have, don't watch any of my videos. Because you don't have it in you. You don't have any that's a weak minded |
| 415 | 01:15:38 --> 01:15:46 | individual. You want something real quick, have it your way mentorship, dollar menu, mentorship, you've seen a drive thru, we're not McDonald's here. I'm not a |
| 416 | 01:15:46 --> 01:15:53 | clown, teacher, mentor, somebody that's teaching some people how to really make real money. And there's a lot of roles. And there's a lot of things you have to |
| 417 | 01:15:53 --> 01:16:03 | go through. And it's going to take time more time. And you probably want it to in the people that ask the shortcut type questions, I mute them. Like I tweet, I |
| 418 | 01:16:03 --> 01:16:12 | retweeted them, but he's muted. Now I have no tolerance for that. Zero tolerance for it. And they can talk shit about me call all kinds of names and whatever, I |
| 419 | 01:16:12 --> 01:16:21 | don't care, these people don't want to learn. They want a magic trick that they can go out and perform and impress their family and friends and have overnight |
| 420 | 01:16:21 --> 01:16:34 | success in trading is not like that. That's a lot of things that you have to weigh in factoring. In a lot of people just are not equipped. They're not |
| 421 | 01:16:34 --> 01:16:44 | equipped to speculate in these markets, to manage risk. They can't even balance a checkbook let alone go in here and try to balance a trade from beginning to |
| 422 | 01:16:44 --> 01:16:53 | end. Many of you probably don't even know what's in your bank account, you got to go in to sign into your bank and see how much money you got. That's scary. |
| 423 | 01:16:53 --> 01:17:04 | And you can think about is that scary. But you all want to have a profitable trading journey. You're not even funny, so responsible in your own little money, |
| 424 | 01:17:05 --> 01:17:06 | and you want to make a lot of money. |
| 425 | 01:17:11 --> 01:17:20 | All right, so we had one small run, that didn't get down to a level I would have liked to see here, I would have liked to seen it hit that that small |
| 426 | 01:17:20 --> 01:17:29 | inefficiency member I was drawn out here earlier. That small one is the volume imbalance right there. I didn't notice it until we just did that. So if we |
| 427 | 01:17:29 --> 01:17:38 | overshoot this, say it drops one more time, say it goes into here and overshoots it this little tiny volume imbalance, right there until we get down to the |
| 428 | 01:17:38 --> 01:17:56 | immediate rebalance there. That That could happen. It could get little whipsawing. But ultimately, I want to see how we behave 930 into 10 when that |
| 429 | 01:17:56 --> 01:18:08 | news driver hits. And that's thing here for that by the way. You're like, oh, yeah, ICTs gonna be looking at the time now. I'm gonna try to escape here. And |
| 430 | 01:18:08 --> 01:18:17 | when I watch the opening bell, I'll give you five minutes. But I want to be in my mind, not messing with anything, you're not going to get any dose later on. I |
| 431 | 01:18:17 --> 01:18:27 | just want to see how it behaves and not be talking about like I'm doing now because this is a little distracting for me. So if you're in this trade, okay. |
| 432 | 01:18:28 --> 01:18:42 | I'm saying trade in quotes, because I outline this as maybe some of you interpreting that as the mile 2220 22, where we take by side here, shift in |
| 433 | 01:18:42 --> 01:18:53 | market structure here. Here's the inefficiency. It's above equilibrium. So we'd be in premium trading in this area here. You might look at that as a short and I |
| 434 | 01:18:53 --> 01:19:01 | said I would not be interested in taking that because of the 10 O'Clock News driver, because it's Friday, because it's rolling against the underlying |
| 435 | 01:19:01 --> 01:19:13 | sentiment that we've been bearish. So it's reasonable to anticipate them to want to take price up to buy stops from start to run those BizStats allowing smart |
| 436 | 01:19:13 --> 01:19:27 | money to build in positions selling short, and they can sell early. Okay. If you looked at the lesson I gave on the commodity portion of the core content. And |
| 437 | 01:19:27 --> 01:19:38 | for the life of me, I don't recall that don't take my word for this one. Okay. But I want to say my 10 core content, but I'm probably wrong. Okay, so I'm |
| 438 | 01:19:38 --> 01:19:49 | probably calling them the wrong month. But the one I talk about commodities and I go over commitment of traders, and I teach how the smart money in this large |
| 439 | 01:19:49 --> 01:20:01 | long term hedgers, they will they will sell as the markets going up they're selling into those rallies. Okay. Think about what we're seeing In the indices |
| 440 | 01:20:01 --> 01:20:12 | right now, we've already dropped a lot. It's perfectly reasonable for us as on Wednesday for the market to go higher, Thursday and then Friday. And we've seen |
| 441 | 01:20:12 --> 01:20:23 | that happen. Why would that be advantageous? Because if the market can go up higher, to knock out people that are profitable right now, that trail, their |
| 442 | 01:20:23 --> 01:20:35 | stop loss, lower their buy stock gets them out at whatever profit or loss that books at the time their stops are executed. The other side of that execution is |
| 443 | 01:20:35 --> 01:20:45 | a short seller in my mind that wants to establish a short position for the longer term. So you're looking at markets, like in terms of a pattern, my |
| 444 | 01:20:45 --> 01:20:54 | harmonic wombat pattern says it should go up to this level, or should go down to that level, okay? Or you're looking at some kind of indicator that says that, |
| 445 | 01:20:54 --> 01:21:03 | you know, price should do this or do that. I'm looking at price and thinking, Okay, why would price want to go to that level? I'm not a fundamental trader. |
| 446 | 01:21:04 --> 01:21:13 | But I'm fundamentally lightyears ahead of everything else, because I'm looking at the context of why price should be booking the way it does. You are fine. You |
| 447 | 01:21:13 --> 01:21:21 | all figured out a narrative when you take your trades and you get stopped out. They did this and you figured it out, you know exactly what they did. You always |
| 448 | 01:21:21 --> 01:21:29 | say it out loud, you bitch to yourself, you bitch on social media, you bet the me bits the people on your YouTube channel. Oh, they so and so's Mark majors did |
| 449 | 01:21:29 --> 01:21:40 | this, they did that. It's clear because this happened to you. So what I tried to do is I tried to be ahead of the curve and say, Okay, I am the market maker. I |
| 450 | 01:21:40 --> 01:21:48 | want to take these people out, and I want to take their seat. Because I'm booking price lower. And in a later time in the future, I want to use these |
| 451 | 01:21:48 --> 01:21:58 | people right now to have buy stocks that want to buy at a high price. That's essentially how I'm using their orders that they see as a shield that's |
| 452 | 01:21:58 --> 01:22:10 | protecting their short position. I'm going in as a an apex predator, I'm going in like the Alpha Wolf. And I'm going to consume you, your meat to me, I'm going |
| 453 | 01:22:10 --> 01:22:19 | in here and I'm going to, to sink my teeth into you and devour you, because you're getting out with a profit or you're getting out with a loss matters, not |
| 454 | 01:22:19 --> 01:22:29 | to me, your liquidity, that's all you are. You're just a meal. And I have to use you as a stepping stool to get to where I want to go. That's what market making |
| 455 | 01:22:29 --> 01:22:40 | is. That's exactly what it is. It's not allowing and facilitating trade. It's consuming. It's consumption. It's the survival of the fittest, the apex eating |
| 456 | 01:22:41 --> 01:22:50 | the lower ladder. That's what this market is. That's what it is. And there's a lot of fanciful ways to be able to try to sugarcoat it and make it sound, you |
| 457 | 01:22:50 --> 01:23:01 | know, something that it's not. And then you wonder why everybody has a losing track record. They have a inability to find consistency or find a rhyme or |
| 458 | 01:23:01 --> 01:23:11 | reason of why price behaves the way it does or should or shouldn't do. Let me ask you a question. If you would have took that short in this area here. Would |
| 459 | 01:23:11 --> 01:23:20 | you feel comfortable with it right now? It still could work. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna argue and say that it can't still drop. But I'm seeing right now. If |
| 460 | 01:23:20 --> 01:23:28 | you were in that trade, and I'm not sure quite some of you, probably in there, and you're thinking, dammit, I should have listened ICT, who knows I might be |
| 461 | 01:23:28 --> 01:23:35 | wrong, it might just drop down here and go below this lower here. It could happen I could be wrong. I'm completely accepting the fact that I might be |
| 462 | 01:23:35 --> 01:23:43 | wrong. I'm inviting it. I'm allowing for it this morning. But I'm also telling you one side I don't see it that way right now. I think that they're going to |
| 463 | 01:23:43 --> 01:23:57 | use that 10 o'clock to run even higher for the purposes of sending it higher to sell short into in you know, two weeks from now will be lower. That's how I'm |
| 464 | 01:23:57 --> 01:24:09 | trying to I'm trying to articulate the thought processes how I'm looking at price right now. Personally, if I would have used this pattern here to get |
| 465 | 01:24:09 --> 01:24:20 | short. It's highly unlikely I would have done it because these are just two. These are too enticing. Like I think this is this asking please come up here and |
| 466 | 01:24:20 --> 01:24:29 | take my boss stops this come please come on up here. And let me get knocked out. Okay. Or traders that are seeing this as a bull flag. They have their buy stops |
| 467 | 01:24:29 --> 01:24:40 | here to be buying long. They want to go long there. And if I'm accurate by what I'm suggesting, and if it does pan out the shorts that have buy stops here for |
| 468 | 01:24:40 --> 01:24:52 | protective stop loss purpose only. If they run that they get stopped out at a at a loss. The folks that use this idea here as a bull flag. They have a resting |
| 469 | 01:24:52 --> 01:25:05 | buy start to enter long to get long to be net long. I think that at 10 o'clock or 930 in at 10 o'clock, the run into this area maybe higher, they will be in |
| 470 | 01:25:05 --> 01:25:15 | short term unrealized profit that I think eventually would be a cause or reason for them, let's assume that say these two lows here stay intact, and we don't go |
| 471 | 01:25:15 --> 01:25:26 | lower than that prior to, to 930. Okay. Or, if we dropped down here at 930, than I would anticipate price, then reaching up here, post 930. But assuming these |
| 472 | 01:25:26 --> 01:25:37 | they sing, okay, and then 930, we run higher here, that trips in the retail traders that use a breakout strategy to go long. So their buy stock is their |
| 473 | 01:25:37 --> 01:25:45 | entry mechanism, that's their order to get in not a protection behind a short position, it's an entry for long position, they would be allowed to be in |
| 474 | 01:25:45 --> 01:25:54 | unrealized profit. But if they use the idea that I'm outlining here, and I might be wrong, it could just keep on going higher, or never go up here at all. But in |
| 475 | 01:25:54 --> 01:26:02 | my mind, I'm thinking, even if they get in, they will have a short lived, objective. And if it starts ripping up to this level here, they're not going to |
| 476 | 01:26:02 --> 01:26:08 | want to get out because they think it's gonna go to the moon. And then eventually, at 10 o'clock, news will come in, and then maybe there'll be a |
| 477 | 01:26:08 --> 01:26:17 | sentiment shift that is used against them. And it starts raking them across the coals and goes down below these lows here, and they are no longer profitable. |
| 478 | 01:26:19 --> 01:26:35 | Consumption. Would you be comfortable with that short right now? Looking at the time we're about 95 seconds from the opening bell, would you feel comfortable in |
| 479 | 01:26:35 --> 01:26:54 | that short right now with pools of liquidity here. And here I wouldn't be. This is also a time when I would not be in trying to early entry. Because sometimes |
| 480 | 01:26:54 --> 01:27:01 | you'll see me enter before or right at 930. This is one instance where I wouldn't do it. Because of all the things I've talked about this morning, now |
| 481 | 01:27:01 --> 01:27:05 | you want me to be able to condense that in a five minute video. |
| 482 | 01:27:06 --> 01:27:14 | I ain't got time. Listen, this guy talks too much. I just gave you a clinic on stuff that you can't find in books, and no other mentors going out here doing it |
| 483 | 01:27:14 --> 01:27:15 | and talking about it. |
| 484 | 01:27:34 --> 01:27:47 | 30 seconds. And this is where you want to be at an early stages of your development where nothing can hurt you. Nothing can cause any kind of pain. If |
| 485 | 01:27:47 --> 01:27:55 | you're right or wrong. It matters not you're studying you're looking at for the purposes of understanding the logic, understanding narrative, how does how does |
| 486 | 01:27:55 --> 01:28:06 | the market use the existing borders that are above and below the marketplace on a day in time with an economic downturn like we have today. And 30 |
| 487 | 01:28:11 --> 01:28:14 | shorts are gone long term net long. |
| 488 | 01:28:28 --> 01:28:39 | told you was not muddled 2022. Not bragging but I'm just telling you there's there's a reason why when I pick trades to talk about or call levels beforehand |
| 489 | 01:28:39 --> 01:28:47 | why I'm so accurate. I'm filtering out all these, all of these types of scenarios, I'm filtering them out, I'm not going to fall victim to these types |
| 490 | 01:28:47 --> 01:28:58 | of things. That's why everything I talk about in Twitter, when I'm calling it, that's why it's 100% Almost likely to happen not always, always know. But most |
| 491 | 01:28:58 --> 01:29:05 | of the time the hind end percent, that's why it's working all the time. So we've seen this short term buy side taken here and remember the sell side is right |
| 492 | 01:29:05 --> 01:29:14 | here, in that little imbalance here and it's small little volume imbalance which I should have in Charlotte but that real quick. I'll just I'll just highlight |
| 493 | 01:29:14 --> 01:29:26 | the low of it. So it can sweep below here. Hit the small little fair pay gap there and lower the volume and bounce rate between these candles bodies. That's |
| 494 | 01:29:26 --> 01:29:36 | what I'm showing you in case you haven't studied what alignment balance is by me yet. It's the separation between them take this off. It's the separation between |
| 495 | 01:29:37 --> 01:29:48 | these two candlesticks bodies. They can be linked with the wick or wicks. But the volume imbalance is the fact that there's no overlapping or touching of the |
| 496 | 01:29:48 --> 01:29:54 | two consecutive candles bodies. So they're back |
| 497 | 01:30:32 --> 01:30:44 | See how it's whipsawing? Why is it doing it, because you have a news driver. That's the second one. In the same session 830 News embargo lifts. That starts |
| 498 | 01:30:44 --> 01:30:53 | technically the morning session. Like you're in there watching what you can do, based on the news drivers that coming up at that time, then you have another one |
| 499 | 01:30:53 --> 01:31:05 | at 10 o'clock. So we already had sentiment in the marketplace from London. And from yesterday, it's been what short term bullish. And then we had 830 News and |
| 500 | 01:31:05 --> 01:31:17 | that were higher even still. Now we have the opening validate at 930. We've cleared the buy side, we've killed the shorts. Now. short sellers that want to |
| 501 | 01:31:17 --> 01:31:20 | sell on the breakout, they now have been engaged right here |
| 502 | 01:31:33 --> 01:31:40 | I'm going to take this rectangle off because it's already done. What I need to do and I'm going to take this off because it's already served its purpose. So |
| 503 | 01:31:40 --> 01:31:44 | I'm going to show you this is where |
| 504 | 01:31:50 --> 01:31:52 | buyside is at the moment |
| 505 | 01:32:18 --> 01:32:21 | What's it consequent Question of the week |
| 506 | 01:32:34 --> 01:32:38 | we want to see a close above that. If it closes above that will expect follow through. |
| 507 | 01:32:52 --> 01:33:08 | The reaction off of that Fairbury got right there. I mentioned that in itself is a high frequency trade. Look at the candles low up here right up here. This |
| 508 | 01:33:08 --> 01:33:24 | candles low is 14,009 85.75. The low that candle comes in at exactly at that price. That's perfect. What did I tell you? Who was who was put in the |
| 509 | 01:33:24 --> 01:33:34 | marketplace below here? shorts that want to sell on? What? Stop? When's the market gonna chop where you can't trade it unless you know what you're looking |
| 510 | 01:33:34 --> 01:33:43 | for? How are you going to get hurt? When is it going to be consolidation that we'll get the live streamers complaining about oh, this chop is killing us. It's |
| 511 | 01:33:43 --> 01:33:52 | beating us up. It's this you have to know when these days are going to form. You have to know when it's likely to form. So that way you don't fall victim to it. |
| 512 | 01:34:05 --> 01:34:20 | To me the way you would use this one here is the same way. I mentioned earlier. As it hit down here. It's taking sellside these lows here chained down to the |
| 513 | 01:34:20 --> 01:34:30 | fair value gap that I outlined real time beforehand, and then it stops right to the tick turns around and runs consequent encouragement. It doesn't need to take |
| 514 | 01:34:30 --> 01:34:44 | this higher. Is there enough range in there to take 10 handles out? Yes. Is it something you should trade today? No. But it's something you can journal you can |
| 515 | 01:34:44 --> 01:34:46 | observe it you can log it |
| 516 | 01:34:59 --> 01:35:08 | if you're Following along today, and this is not one of those exciting lessons where I explained something beforehand the market explodes and moves in |
| 517 | 01:35:08 --> 01:35:19 | directional bias and at a fevered pace, getting there. But this is the stuff that you want to learn. This is the stuff that I wade through. And I don't talk |
| 518 | 01:35:19 --> 01:35:30 | about on Twitter. We don't ever see these types of conditions. When I'm chit chatting, and con, a specific loot move, or a level. It's never in these |
| 519 | 01:35:30 --> 01:35:39 | conditions. Have you noticed that? Because that's the key takeaway this morning. Why am I so accurate, because I don't talk about the times when it's like this, |
| 520 | 01:35:39 --> 01:35:50 | because it's, it's what it's much more difficult. It's 5051 way or the other, it could do either one of them. And you don't want to be in a situation like that |
| 521 | 01:35:50 --> 01:35:56 | risking real money, you want it to be so one sided, that it's obvious for you to expect it to behave a specific way. |
| 522 | 01:36:11 --> 01:36:20 | Now, if it was another day, not Friday, and we didn't have the 10 o'clock news, I will be selling short right there. Soon as I hit that low right there, I would |
| 523 | 01:36:20 --> 01:36:31 | have done it, they're looking for a run below here, first partial and then look to see if it could it celery. Not saying you should do that. If you remember |
| 524 | 01:36:31 --> 01:36:39 | what I just said I said if it were not Friday, if it was like Thursday or any other day, based on this, and we didn't have the 10 O'Clock News looming. I |
| 525 | 01:36:39 --> 01:36:47 | would trust that right there as an immediate rebalance. And look for lower prices. But based on everything I've outlined here, that's why I'm on the brake |
| 526 | 01:36:47 --> 01:36:56 | pedal. I'm not even the the engines not running today, like it's in neutral Park, whatever it is, the keys are in the house. I'm not driving today, I'm just |
| 527 | 01:36:56 --> 01:37:07 | sitting here talking about something over to charts with you, hopefully, reaching you and giving you a reason to not want to feel like you gotta be doing |
| 528 | 01:37:07 --> 01:37:19 | something every single time. Because if you don't know what you're looking for, or if you can't identify quicksand, you'll fall victim to it. Now, any day by |
| 529 | 01:37:19 --> 01:37:30 | Friday, without that looming 10 O'Clock News, if I saw this price action right here, I would not be interested in holding the trade the short that I would have |
| 530 | 01:37:30 --> 01:37:42 | used at the immediate rebalance there, I would kill it. Because it's already traded above equilibrium of the range, I don't want to see that. Because it can |
| 531 | 01:37:42 --> 01:37:53 | trade that quickly active the middle part of it, or equilibrium, then it can easily punch through good VLSI. So these are all things that not think about |
| 532 | 01:37:53 --> 01:38:01 | what I've already talked about. And you're going to want to watch this video a few times this weekend and go on in the future. Because these are things that |
| 533 | 01:38:01 --> 01:38:11 | they can't be taught in a book. And I can't teach it in a five minute video. Like it's impossible, nobody can condense everything that I'm covering here in a |
| 534 | 01:38:11 --> 01:38:19 | small little sample set of choice words and then then you're going to understand it, it doesn't work like that. I wish it could save me a whole lot of time. |
| 535 | 01:38:44 --> 01:39:00 | So in here, all this price action back and forth. The only thing I'm looking at, and I don't trust it, the only thing I'm seeing is that initial gap here drawn |
| 536 | 01:39:00 --> 01:39:06 | out and time if they keep using that, I don't trust that they want to keep going lower because in my mind this should have already went down below that low |
| 537 | 01:39:16 --> 01:39:29 | just feels like they're descending it lower to get people wanting to go lower. And every time they go lower, more people are going short that this builds the |
| 538 | 01:39:29 --> 01:39:39 | buy side bigger so this is like in my mind, I see it as engineering more liquidity above the highs |
| 539 | 01:39:46 --> 01:39:57 | all things equal. If you hadn't trade, I'm sorry if you haven't had a trade today. That's good. But if you sat down your charts and you saw this right now, |
| 540 | 01:39:58 --> 01:40:06 | would you feel inspired to trade If not, don't look at it like this. Like if you saw it naked, no lines on the chart, would you feel like oh yeah, I definitely |
| 541 | 01:40:06 --> 01:40:16 | want to trade that why? What do you what are you trying to we're trying to do |
| 542 | 01:40:21 --> 01:40:33 | you have to know where these problem areas are, where price will be absolutely manipulated. And I've never seen a book. I've never heard a teacher or author or |
| 543 | 01:40:34 --> 01:40:47 | educator or whatnot. clearly articulate the conditions that would present these very things here, it's not it's not the same as saying okay ahead of FOMC the |
| 544 | 01:40:47 --> 01:40:57 | market can consolidate before everybody knows that like everybody knows that but it doesn't always do that. It doesn't always do that. But whenever there's two |
| 545 | 01:40:57 --> 01:41:08 | market drivers in the same session, I anticipate this type of whipsawing fickle price action where it's just it can trap you in many times what you think is |
| 546 | 01:41:08 --> 01:41:17 | there in a chart the opposite is coming the opposite is gonna spring out there and you're like main and at four o'clock and it's gonna all look obvious to you |
| 547 | 01:41:25 --> 01:41:37 | the people that got short below here want to break below that selling weakness What do you think they're feeling right now? On their on the confidence scale. |
| 548 | 01:41:38 --> 01:41:43 | Did he feel like they're ready to conquer and everything or are they sweating right now |
| 549 | 01:41:49 --> 01:41:58 | remember the run above here the buy stops were used for what the bull flag traders their stop loss is going to be placed where if they get filled on a |
| 550 | 01:41:58 --> 01:42:10 | break above here their stop loss is going to be what below here they got tagged so far nobody's nobody's profitable today. They keep banging both sides, both |
| 551 | 01:42:10 --> 01:42:21 | sides both sides this is seeking destroy for a profile sense. This is seeking destroy and what's going to happen at 10 o'clock the real run to purchase |
| 552 | 01:42:21 --> 01:42:25 | everybody with the majority the liquidity is that's what's gonna materialize |
| 553 | 01:42:37 --> 01:42:46 | if I were to come in here and treat Bone Thugs and harmony patterns and they get caught up in this you find that strange and Weird Al Yankovic. |
| 554 | 01:42:52 --> 01:42:54 | Already get this shit brown just comes off the cuff |
| 555 | 01:43:12 --> 01:43:13 | watching paint dry |
| 556 | 01:43:23 --> 01:43:32 | we're talking about narrative today we're talking about avoiding problematic trading conditions. We're talking about days that have two economic drivers in |
| 557 | 01:43:32 --> 01:43:33 | the same session |
| 558 | 01:43:41 --> 01:43:43 | about them shorts |
| 559 | 01:44:01 --> 01:44:17 | I can't tell you how many times as a 20 year old, I was trading bonds. I was trading currency futures, Deutschmarks, Swiss francs, like all that stuff in |
| 560 | 01:44:17 --> 01:44:32 | when the market would do this man. I would buy then sell them by then sell them by then sell and then boom, the accounts gone. And then later on, when The move |
| 561 | 01:44:32 --> 01:44:39 | comes. I would swear up and down that if they never would have just stopped me out on that last one. I would have been in that movie got it all back. And |
| 562 | 01:44:39 --> 01:44:53 | that's never true. You're lying to yourself. I was lying to myself then and you're lying to yourself when you do that too. Sometimes there are days and |
| 563 | 01:44:53 --> 01:45:01 | sessions that are presented as an opportunity but they're cleverly the skies impossibilities. |
| 564 | 01:45:14 --> 01:45:21 | Teaching when not to trade, that's novel ideas. But that's the lesson you need to learn. |
| 565 | 01:45:50 --> 01:46:03 | Alright, so just a little bit less than 12 minutes to go before we have the 10 o'clock news event. I'm going to break here because as I said, I want to, I want |
| 566 | 01:46:03 --> 01:46:14 | to see it with my own observations. I believe we're going to go above the blue line. And then once we do that, I would like to see it take out the low. have |
| 567 | 01:46:14 --> 01:46:28 | little to say here, although it looks it there you go. Thank you for giving it to me beforehand. Thank you. Thank you there buddy. Who said your name the the |
| 568 | 01:46:28 --> 01:46:37 | shorts have been murdered. The Long's on the breakout, we're not allowed to be profitable. And we're trading up into a shaded area I talked about this morning. |
| 569 | 01:46:39 --> 01:46:50 | Not quite yet. It'll be there. So thank you appreciate you guys. At the exchanges working with me and my scheduled today. I was getting ready to leave |
| 570 | 01:46:50 --> 01:47:00 | them helped me out. So thank you very much. And hopefully you found something in all this insightful hopefully allowed you to understand more about what you |
| 571 | 01:47:00 --> 01:47:09 | should be avoiding. Even behind all the mess in the chop, if you understand what price is likely to do, how it books how the algorithm actually delivers price, |
| 572 | 01:47:09 --> 01:47:21 | how it engages in user sentiment, and in entices traders to do things from a sentiment basis. All those things are narrative. And it's not something in |
| 573 | 01:47:21 --> 01:47:32 | books, it's not something in other people's courses, you have to sit in front of a chart for a long time, months years, and you'll develop the skill set. Do you |
| 574 | 01:47:32 --> 01:47:41 | need to have this much detail in understanding price to be profitable. Now you can have a very simple model like I've been taught. But if you really want to be |
| 575 | 01:47:41 --> 01:47:49 | an ace, and you want to know what you're doing and how to avoid the pitfalls of everybody else out there, and you want to find something that has absolutely |
| 576 | 01:47:49 --> 01:48:01 | unrivaled precision, and sound logic, you found home. Okay. Everything else I'm putting up on the YouTube channel. When I go away in November. None of that is |
| 577 | 01:48:01 --> 01:48:09 | going down. It's for your learning. It's for your edification, and encouraging you to use it, study it, share it with your family members. Have them in your |
| 578 | 01:48:09 --> 01:48:19 | study. If you have a child that you're homeschooling, try to find a way to incorporate some of it. Okay, and start them young and give them a great deal of |
| 579 | 01:48:19 --> 01:48:27 | Headstart, and not just limit them to just whatever the curriculum that you have or what would have been subscribed to you as the curriculum to help build them |
| 580 | 01:48:27 --> 01:48:36 | as a good employee. Teach them a skill set to help them become an independent thinker where they can go out there and act as an entrepreneur. And even without |
| 581 | 01:48:36 --> 01:48:44 | a brick and mortar type business, they can still find a way to carve out their own existence and not limited to whatever someone else would prosecute your time |
| 582 | 01:48:44 --> 01:48:55 | for. So enjoy your weekend. Have a very safe weekend. And I'll be with you all on Twitter in morning tomorrow for a shotgun Saturday, Twitter space. Until next |
| 583 | 01:48:55 --> 01:48:57 | time, be safe |