ICT YT - 2023-09-27 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - PM Session Market Review September 27 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-09-29 11:31
Outline
01:07 - Financial markets, including the dollar index and Eurodollar.
- ICT discusses dollar index and Eurodollar, highlighting potential draws and consolidation.
02:40 - Market analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT analyzes the market and identifies a sell side imbalance, which leads to a breakaway gap and a rebalancing of the market.
- ICT identifies an immediate rebalance signature, indicating a quick move in the direction of the imbalance, and provides a trade idea based on this analysis.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of patience and relaxation after a successful trade, encouraging listeners to take time to enjoy their profits and not rush into making decisions.
- ICT believes a retracement is possible but not convinced the low has been made, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for the next move.
08:42 - Technical analysis of stock market.
- ICT warns of potential market downturn, highlighting imbalances on weekly chart.
- ICT highlights an inefficiency in the market, where a candle's high and low are similar, indicating a balanced price range.
- The market breaks through the inefficiency as resistance, reaching the low of the imbalance on the weekly chart.
13:16 - Technical analysis and market trends.
- ICT believes the US dollar is still bullish in the long term, despite recent price action.
- ICT warns of potential downside risks in the cable market, with resistance levels at 2114.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of creating a language for understanding market analysis and timing the marketplace.
- ICT's approach involves building rule-based models using simple, pre-packaged views of the market to navigate the market consistently and grow an affinity for a particular approach.
18:47 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- The speaker's son had 12 winning days in a row before making a mistake and losing money.
- The speaker's son received a $1,500 payout after making a request, despite only being 18 years old and brand new to trading.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of having a rule-based approach and journaling to avoid beating oneself up over minor deviations from the plan.
- ICT advises against taking new shorts in a potential correction, even if the market moves against the trader's previous expectations.
23:18 - Market inefficiencies and potential short opportunities.
- ICT discusses the inefficiency in the market, highlighting the imbalance between buyers and sellers and the resulting price action.
- ICT explains that the volume imbalance and Fair Pay Gap combined make it easy for price to move down from the upper portion of a range.
- ICT highlights the correlation between NASDAQ and S&P, noting that when one index makes a fast run, the other may yet to form a setup.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of volume imbalances and inefficiencies in identifying potential short opportunities, even in a deep discount.
29:06 - Market inefficiencies and sentiment analysis.
- ICT teaches students to analyze market sentiment by identifying patterns and inefficiencies in the chart.
- ICT identifies premium and discount levels in a market inefficiency.
34:05 - Market analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of higher timeframe analysis for trading, particularly for tomorrow's market.
- ICT suggests that price may reach new highs or lows based on opening range and liquidity, but notes that anything can happen in the market.
36:52 - Trading psychology and holding onto profitable trades.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of gradually building up the courage to hold trades for longer term targets, rather than constantly taking profits too early.
- ICT believes that many traders undermine themselves by complaining publicly about their struggles to hold trades, rather than taking steps to improve their discipline and patience.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of staying breakeven and working towards profitability, starting with small base hits before gradually increasing position size.
- ICT advises against over-leveraging and reaching for big wins, instead focusing on managing fear and discomfort through consistent, small wins.
43:00 - Trading, progress, and comfort zones.
- ICT challenges the listener to push past comfort zones and embrace discomfort in trading, citing the importance of measuring progress and achieving real growth.
- The speaker's son experienced a setback in trading, but the speaker believes he can learn from the experience and continue to improve with dedication and hard work.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of pressing into discomfort and uncertainty to learn and grow as a speculator.
- ICT notes that current market conditions are the most difficult he's seen in over 30 years, with many geopolitical and economic factors causing investor fear and market volatility.
- ICT warns against taking large risks on new positions in deep discounts due to potential retrace.
49:30 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT analyzes the market, identifying areas of inefficiency and potential resistance levels.
- ICT expects a potential run up to a certain level, with the possibility of a gap forming and acting as resistance.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of identifying the unlikely draw on liquidity on higher timeframes and using specific setups and market structures to trade.
- ICT shares a silver bullet model for trading NASDAQ, highlighting the inefficiency at 2-3 o'clock PM New York time and the potential for a Moving Average crossover and stochastic buy signal.
55:09 - Market analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT uses SMT (Smart Money Technique) to identify potential divergences between the S&P and NASDAQ, with the goal of confirming price movements.
- ICT prefers to use SMT in conjunction with other forms of analysis, rather than relying solely on it for making trading decisions.
- ICT believes the NASDAQ will trade to deeper levels and balance out between two candles on a daily chart.
- ICT is bearish on NASDAQ and wants to see specific actions to change their view, such as a move above two specific candles.
01:00:58 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT notes a potential consequent encroachment at the bottom of a candle, which could be a key level for the chart.
- ICT identifies an inefficiency in the market and suggests taking profits near the bottom end of a candle.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of practicing trading with real-time market data to desensitize oneself to price movements and make better trading decisions.
- ICT demonstrates how to identify fair value gaps and enter trades in the direction of the gap, even when the market is moving against you.
01:07:02 - Market manipulation and trading strategies.
- ICT argues that market movements are not random, but rather the result of algorithms and predetermined highs and lows.
- ICT teaches students to target liquidity rather than support and resistance levels, which he considers a "loser's mindset."
- He emphasizes the importance of understanding why a level should be traded to and through it, rather than relying on indicators or moving averages.
- ICT believes gold is highly manipulated and undervalued, predicting it should be worth $25,000+ due to central bank hoarding.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:01:07 --> 00:01:15 | ICT: going on, folks. Hope you're doing well. So we'll be doing a rather brief review today. |
| 2 | 00:01:17 --> 00:01:21 | And we're starting with the dollar index. As I mentioned this morning, |
| 3 | 00:01:23 --> 00:01:27 | did a live stream before the opening bell, the equity market, |
| 4 | 00:01:28 --> 00:01:42 | in the mentioned Tao, this level here in this high here would be used as a draw. So it's not expected to be a straight run to it. So it's going to be a probably |
| 5 | 00:01:42 --> 00:01:52 | a back and forth type thing to eventually reach out there and uncovered, more or less, what would change my mind about this market being bullish, and all the |
| 6 | 00:01:52 --> 00:01:57 | other markets being bearish. So I won't revisit all that here |
| 7 | 00:01:58 --> 00:02:05 | on the Eurodollar. Okay, so we see how |
| 8 | 00:02:06 --> 00:02:19 | market reached below this level in here, I counseled you that we would likely see this in here as a draw if we got accelerated and animated below this low |
| 9 | 00:02:19 --> 00:02:28 | here, which was the initial draw on liquidity, which delivered beautifully. And it's dropped down into for our |
| 10 | 00:02:34 --> 00:02:47 | CI, we've consolidated around the old low of May 31 2023. And we broke down created a city, which is a sell side and balance by side and efficiency. And |
| 11 | 00:02:47 --> 00:02:48 | I'll measure that for you so you can get a |
| 12 | 00:02:50 --> 00:02:51 | feel for the |
| 13 | 00:02:58 --> 00:03:13 | Okay, so 1.0609 and one, Pip et actually is the high if you look right up here, right up here, upper left hand corner, and at the high of this candle comes in |
| 14 | 00:03:14 --> 00:03:21 | exactly at that same price. So that's perfect delivery, that's not harmonic that's perfection. And we had |
| 15 | 00:03:24 --> 00:03:37 | a breakaway gap in here. And we dropped down into the sell side liquidity pool that we were looking for. on an hourly chart okay, you see him |
| 16 | 00:03:38 --> 00:03:46 | rocket broke lower. This one here I was watching it, I wanted to see it actually become an immediate rebounds, which would have been a trade right back to this |
| 17 | 00:03:46 --> 00:03:55 | candles low. So we had a nice big down closed candle here the next one, if it would have traded up and touch that right there. That's like one of the |
| 18 | 00:03:55 --> 00:04:06 | strongest algorithmic signatures in price delivery, if you know where that's likely to go, which is this low and lower right. So if you ever did that, that |
| 19 | 00:04:06 --> 00:04:19 | is like an immediate rebalance. Whereas a fair value gap of mine is a deferred repricing and rebalancing later on. So fair value cap can stay open for a number |
| 20 | 00:04:19 --> 00:04:29 | of days, months, weeks, years. But an immediate rebalances signifying that the market is only coming back here just to tell you that it's going to be moving |
| 21 | 00:04:29 --> 00:04:41 | quickly in the direction that either the imbalance that's below or above the marketplace or the sell side or by side above or below respectively, as the draw |
| 22 | 00:04:41 --> 00:04:46 | would be at the minute timeframe. |
| 23 | 00:04:47 --> 00:04:48 | Okay, nice little |
| 24 | 00:04:50 --> 00:05:05 | drop in here. What time of day is this? Right there. 7am always, time is New York and don't care where you live. Okay, so we have the cell center balanced by |
| 25 | 00:05:05 --> 00:05:14 | sound efficiency that's broken up over two candles on the 15 minute timeframe from this low of that candle, and the high of that candle is what |
| 26 | 00:05:16 --> 00:05:16 | fair Vega |
| 27 | 00:05:25 --> 00:05:35 | trade into it sells off, consolidates around the low we were looking for and broke through it and goes even lower institutional order flow entry drill |
| 28 | 00:05:35 --> 00:05:46 | partial entry into an imbalance, not halfway. Halfway is consequent encroachment if it just pokes above it a little bit. That's institutional or full entry drum. |
| 29 | 00:05:47 --> 00:05:59 | Now, because we hit these targets here, and it's midweek, we have a few days left in the week. We've covered a lot of ground over the last couple of weeks in |
| 30 | 00:05:59 --> 00:06:11 | all assets, whether it be the dollar index, equities, forex bond market gold, like it's moved around a lot, so it would be reasonable for it to want to have |
| 31 | 00:06:11 --> 00:06:23 | some kind of a retracement, I'm not going to be touching anything tomorrow. And I want to more or less encouraged my son to try to do nothing as well. And we'll |
| 32 | 00:06:23 --> 00:06:33 | see if there's any action for me on Friday. But the idea of reaching objectives like this, one of the things that I get questioned a lot is when it delivers to |
| 33 | 00:06:33 --> 00:06:44 | what I either call openly or I have something I've been watching in private and finally delivers. What do we do next? Like if it's on Twitter, okay or comments |
| 34 | 00:06:44 --> 00:06:59 | section is open on a video whatnot. The new trader or the impulsive, impatient trader? Or would be trader student the immediate want to ask me now what now |
| 35 | 00:06:59 --> 00:07:07 | what's it going to do? And often wonder if it's somebody that is waiting for me to do it wrong. So they can say Ha, ha, you know, forget that 999 times you just |
| 36 | 00:07:07 --> 00:07:16 | did it right. But though this time here, we get to talk about that. But if it's not that, and I think it's not so much that I think it's a matter of knowing |
| 37 | 00:07:17 --> 00:07:27 | what to look for next for them. It's like a dopamine hit from okay, because they probably watched me call something and they didn't trade it. They didn't use it, |
| 38 | 00:07:27 --> 00:07:36 | and then it delivered. So now I think okay, if he tells me the next one, I'm going to jump on that one. So I always create a pause and it used to drive my |
| 39 | 00:07:37 --> 00:07:46 | paid memberships students nuts and they would want to know right away what's the next day and I would try to condition them that to sit still enjoy the fact that |
| 40 | 00:07:46 --> 00:07:53 | we just outlined the marketplace we did what everybody else says can't be done. You can't time the market. You can't do any US campaign. You know, all these |
| 41 | 00:07:53 --> 00:08:00 | things. It's no one supposedly able to do but here we are in our community and not just in my community. Other people that never trade well, they can time the |
| 42 | 00:08:00 --> 00:08:15 | market. But I tried to promote the idea of relaxing once you get a a windfall analysis panned out for you, and the degree of hundreds of handles and hundreds |
| 43 | 00:08:15 --> 00:08:29 | of pips, you like the last couple weeks as delivered. You want to sit still and just take that in. You know, let let it stew on you a little bit. Okay, don't |
| 44 | 00:08:29 --> 00:08:36 | feel like you got to hurry up and jump out there and try to do something or that you should know what it's going to do next. I'm not convinced that we've made |
| 45 | 00:08:36 --> 00:08:45 | the low. But I do think that a day or two of retracement is absolutely fine. It doesn't mean that the markets gonna stop going lower. It doesn't mean that the |
| 46 | 00:08:45 --> 00:08:54 | market has made a bottom I don't suggest that we've seen any reason to justify that at all. And there's nothing that's favorable going forward that's going to |
| 47 | 00:08:54 --> 00:09:08 | cause the stock market equities or anything else to feel like it's a warranted venture to go and start buying. Let's go to the chart once more we'll drop in |
| 48 | 00:09:08 --> 00:09:09 | the POUND DOLLAR. |
| 49 | 00:09:11 --> 00:09:14 | So pretty soon nice. |
| 50 | 00:09:15 --> 00:09:23 | If you ain't screenshot your charts with all the annotations like we're showing here. I realize I'm still on fire you're used to just wanting you to |
| 51 | 00:09:25 --> 00:09:35 | take a look at that beautiful. You're talking about all this throughout the entire run all on the GT for free POUND DOLLAR |
| 52 | 00:09:39 --> 00:09:56 | right so we talked about this pair as well. Longer term. I like I said I mentioned this this morning on the live stream this balanced price range we had |
| 53 | 00:09:56 --> 00:10:01 | this I believe that's a weekly |
| 54 | 00:10:01 --> 00:10:02 | imbalance check. |
| 55 | 00:10:04 --> 00:10:12 | Yeah, there's your weekly imbalance that we were marking out this morning. And I said that, I would like to see the remainder of that closed in. And it becomes |
| 56 | 00:10:12 --> 00:10:22 | really efficiently delivered all three. Because if you look at what's being shown here on the weekly chart, I didn't mention this this morning. So as long |
| 57 | 00:10:22 --> 00:10:33 | as I'm adding it here, careful not to add too much time this, I don't want to be too long with you today. But the back and forth, up in them that range, the next |
| 58 | 00:10:33 --> 00:10:42 | day or next week, rather, I'm sorry, the next week, we had this much of movement back and forth. And then we leave this previous week's range right there, and we |
| 59 | 00:10:42 --> 00:10:53 | come back down. There's no necessity for the commodity down here. Why it's taken sell side here, it's taking sell side over there. So we leave this previous |
| 60 | 00:10:53 --> 00:11:03 | week's range. So all of this back and forth. Until we get this candle here, and it closes, this is our only inefficiency. That's why I'm highlighting. So since |
| 61 | 00:11:03 --> 00:11:12 | we traded down to the low of it, it's going to take a lot more to get through this. Because this is a balanced price range. And this is the lower portion |
| 62 | 00:11:12 --> 00:11:23 | that's efficiently delivered back and forth, efficiently delivered, meaning that it's multiple candles trading to and fro to a high level in a low level, that's |
| 63 | 00:11:23 --> 00:11:34 | overlapping meaning. This candle here, it's high and low is pretty much the same thing is the next one here. Now, by itself, it means absolutely nothing. But |
| 64 | 00:11:34 --> 00:11:43 | when we have a bias if we're bullish, and we leave that range, this candle doesn't leave it yet. This one does. And then the next candle here we have an |
| 65 | 00:11:43 --> 00:11:53 | inefficiency. So this becomes a factor for future price delivery. What would it be drawing price to do? pulling it down? Why? Because the candle here that |
| 66 | 00:11:53 --> 00:12:04 | creates that inefficiency from this candles high. In that candles low. There's one singular candle that creates the body there. And that's what I'm |
| 67 | 00:12:04 --> 00:12:15 | highlighting that little blue box. It took from March of this year all the way till now in September before it was repriced, to it. What did it do? It provided |
| 68 | 00:12:15 --> 00:12:24 | the back and forth delivery and price action where it only went up here on this timeframe. Efficiently delivered price is where the market is going to offer on |
| 69 | 00:12:24 --> 00:12:32 | the downside. And that's what you're seeing here. Okay, so that's the whole element of redelivering not rebounds yet. It's just been redelivered. |
| 70 | 00:12:35 --> 00:12:38 | Alright, so now the daily chart |
| 71 | 00:12:45 --> 00:12:59 | Alright, so we've worked off this inefficiency here. Using it as resistance, it broke lower. believed this was a weekly imbalance as well. And it broke lower. |
| 72 | 00:12:59 --> 00:13:08 | And we went down to basically the low of the imbalance on the weekly chart, which was that shaded area here. Because we're at the midpoint, or equilibrium |
| 73 | 00:13:08 --> 00:13:17 | of this shaded area, which is a balanced price range, because it has traded back and forth, and then it left it here. And now we're training back into it. So |
| 74 | 00:13:17 --> 00:13:27 | it's going to take a whole lot for price, they want to just come right through into the lower end here. Right, ultimately have I had that opinion that before |
| 75 | 00:13:27 --> 00:13:36 | we closed in the year that think that we'll see POUND DOLLAR below that level there. That's what I'm subscribing to. And I covered pretty much what I felt was |
| 76 | 00:13:36 --> 00:13:43 | reasonable for reasons why I don't believe it's going to be the case, if certain factors for each one of the markets, which I won't do again here, but it's in |
| 77 | 00:13:43 --> 00:13:53 | the livestream from this morning, where I would submit to myself that I was wrong. And until those factors were seen in price action, I'm going to hold to |
| 78 | 00:13:53 --> 00:14:03 | that bias that I think dollars longer term bullish still. And all the other asset classes are weaker as a result. So basically risk off is still in play. |
| 79 | 00:14:03 --> 00:14:06 | Risk off is everything going down while dollar goes up. |
| 80 | 00:14:08 --> 00:14:11 | For our chart on cable, |
| 81 | 00:14:14 --> 00:14:21 | see the really nice delivery down into that weekly box gonna be on sale sign efficiency, the fairway I got from the weekly chart, that's the shaded area |
| 82 | 00:14:21 --> 00:14:24 | here. So it just kept delivering lower, lower, lower lower, |
| 83 | 00:14:26 --> 00:14:33 | hourly chart, again, just a straight, break, lower, break, lower break lower |
| 84 | 00:14:33 --> 00:14:39 | these types of moves if you're not aware of the higher timeframes. If you're completely oblivious to what's going on, on the week, the monthly the weekly and |
| 85 | 00:14:39 --> 00:14:50 | the daily. You can many times look at these tiny little potential swing lows and get all excited thinking okay, it has to turn around now. And it just keeps |
| 86 | 00:14:50 --> 00:14:59 | going lower. Okay, it's gotta turn around now. No, oh, it's gotta turn around now. No, it just keeps going lower, lower, lower. This is a cell program. Okay. |
| 87 | 00:14:59 --> 00:15:12 | That means every single time you see an up close candle, think of it as a resistance level. And until we start seeing up close candles broken with price |
| 88 | 00:15:12 --> 00:15:22 | movement going above them, order flow is bearish. You don't need a trendline, you don't need a moving average, you don't need any kind of retail tool to tell |
| 89 | 00:15:22 --> 00:15:30 | you that until we get down to the lower end of that inefficiency I mentioned this morning. And we got just beyond it by was that a couple of pips. |
| 90 | 00:15:31 --> 00:15:38 | So let's see what that level is there, I'm going to eyeball it. So 2114 in the low |
| 91 | 00:15:41 --> 00:15:53 | in basically less than a pit. So it's only small variance from that. And the same thing here. And we pretty much stopped for the day, which is expected in |
| 92 | 00:15:53 --> 00:16:02 | these types of objectives or targets once they're reached. And we're in the middle of the middle of the week, we're in the last week of September, we've |
| 93 | 00:16:02 --> 00:16:11 | already covered a lot of ground, the markets dropped a lot. So when you reach these really deep discount objectives and targets on the higher timeframe, it's |
| 94 | 00:16:11 --> 00:16:19 | reasonable to anticipate consolidation and or retracements doesn't mean pick a bottom in the bar in a bear market. It doesn't mean pick a top and a bulwark. It |
| 95 | 00:16:19 --> 00:16:31 | just means that it's reasonable to expect some measure of consolidation and or retracement. Now, couple that. In contrast that rather, with what we see in |
| 96 | 00:16:31 --> 00:16:41 | books, like I've never had a book where it made it very clear for me to know when to anticipate consolidation, when to anticipate a slowdown, but not a |
| 97 | 00:16:41 --> 00:16:51 | reversal to an existing trend. They will always show you examples in hindsight, but there was really no logic behind it. And that was a source of me losing a |
| 98 | 00:16:51 --> 00:17:00 | lot of money when I was 20 years old, I kept wasting my time trying to pursue something that no one really had a firm grasp on, or could educate through any |
| 99 | 00:17:00 --> 00:17:13 | medium, whether it was me buying courses or books, it just wasn't there. And what I try to do on my own analysis imune I guess life's work is to try to |
| 100 | 00:17:14 --> 00:17:25 | create a language where myself and my journaling. And hopefully, in the future when I was going to have children, those children would have something to learn |
| 101 | 00:17:25 --> 00:17:36 | from that was a lot more beneficial to them as a developing investor or trader, speculator whatever. And give them some context as to what to do and how to time |
| 102 | 00:17:36 --> 00:17:46 | the marketplace. So everything I've created is a language. So it gives us rule based ideas that allows you as a student, to go in and build your own unique |
| 103 | 00:17:46 --> 00:17:56 | model. And the major core concepts that I've made available on the YouTube channel, you use those building blocks to put that together. And I've done |
| 104 | 00:17:56 --> 00:18:06 | several models in recent years, where you can see it's very simple, they're very simple approaches to taking a few things, and applying it to a market |
| 105 | 00:18:06 --> 00:18:16 | systematically, and trying to work within that you that pre packaged view of I'm only interested in the price if it does this at this time of day. And if it |
| 106 | 00:18:16 --> 00:18:23 | doesn't look like it's obvious on one side, going higher or lower than I do nothing, because that's low probability, and only risk a very small amount of |
| 107 | 00:18:23 --> 00:18:31 | money. If you do that consistently over time, they'll give you a baseline understanding what it is I'm teaching how you should navigate the market |
| 108 | 00:18:31 --> 00:18:39 | yourself. And you'll grow an affinity for one of the PDA arrays or a model. And you'll build on that over time, doesn't mean it's the last thing and the only |
| 109 | 00:18:39 --> 00:18:47 | thing you'll ever do in terms of trading, you might outgrow what it is I'm doing here and find your own unique approach to reading price action. And that's |
| 110 | 00:18:47 --> 00:18:58 | wonderful. I would love to hear about it. But in the beginning, you have to have some kind of, you know, measuring stick to at least measure and track your |
| 111 | 00:18:58 --> 00:19:10 | progress. Otherwise, how do you know if you're improving? How do you know if you're improving or if just one bad day is the beginning of the end? If you |
| 112 | 00:19:10 --> 00:19:17 | consistently keep making the same mistakes, you're not learning from them, you're not journaling it that's not progress. That's you're wasting time. But |
| 113 | 00:19:17 --> 00:19:29 | trying to do something failing, logging that experience that's not failure. That's you getting a collection of data. And you need that for your personal |
| 114 | 00:19:29 --> 00:19:39 | KPI, your your personal statistics, because everyone else's statistics, whether it be mine. Well, you saw my son today you for he's had 1212 days of running up |
| 115 | 00:19:40 --> 00:19:52 | in top step. And today, he went on till on lunch at work trading from a phone and his perfect track record of every single day winning finally caught up with |
| 116 | 00:19:52 --> 00:20:00 | him. And he panicked and had tried to pursue everything he could to try to fix it because he didn't want me to sit down with them say Why'd you do that? And he |
| 117 | 00:20:00 --> 00:20:08 | reached for what I told him not to do the five contracts that was allowed. So he hit his maximum loss, it doesn't mean he blew his account doesn't need to he hit |
| 118 | 00:20:08 --> 00:20:16 | his maximum loss. So they they stopped him from trading, which is great, because he probably would have blew the whole thing if he would have gone. So he put in |
| 119 | 00:20:16 --> 00:20:26 | a request for another payout. So that'll be $1,500. And some change that he's made in less than a month to payouts in one month. And he had 12 Winning days. |
| 120 | 00:20:26 --> 00:20:37 | But today, he found it finally hit him for 18 years old, brand new. That's to me, that's great. And he's made money. Most People Fail at these compounds. Most |
| 121 | 00:20:37 --> 00:20:48 | of them never really get a payout he got two of them. So his his statistics are unique to him. Many of you have been watching on Twitter, you probably thinking |
| 122 | 00:20:48 --> 00:21:00 | wow, this is great. And others were thinking, you know, this is impossible. In no way you know. And now finally, the reality hits 100% is not obtainable. You |
| 123 | 00:21:00 --> 00:21:08 | can have it for a little while. But eventually it'll hit you. And by having a journal, you'll be able to look at you where you did things, right. And when you |
| 124 | 00:21:08 --> 00:21:18 | did it incorrect, and not beat yourself up, don't more or less throw away the model or throw away the approach, simply because you deviated from the rules and |
| 125 | 00:21:18 --> 00:21:27 | went on tilt. That means you broke the rules you ever traded, you traded with more contracts or traded more times than you should have. All those things are |
| 126 | 00:21:28 --> 00:21:37 | removed, hopefully, by having a rule based idea and a plan, where once it gets to top two levels like this, okay. In other words, if you're a forex trader, |
| 127 | 00:21:37 --> 00:21:45 | this is what I'm getting at, basically, whether you're a forex trader, or a futures trader, or a bond trader or crypto trader, whatever you're trading, once |
| 128 | 00:21:45 --> 00:21:57 | you get to a longer term discount array that you've embarrassed, and one, I'm sorry, bearish, and you reach that level, try to avoid the impulse to want to |
| 129 | 00:21:57 --> 00:22:07 | take new shorts down here. Even if it was the drop, and say the bottom falls out tonight or tomorrow, and cable goes below 120. I'm not saying is but this is see |
| 130 | 00:22:07 --> 00:22:18 | if it happened. You have in the beginning, you have to be able to let that go and not think you know that you should have known that. Because preparing |
| 131 | 00:22:18 --> 00:22:26 | yourself, for times when you don't want to trade when not to do something, it's more likely that this thing's going to come up and correct a little bit. Look |
| 132 | 00:22:26 --> 00:22:38 | how smooth these highs are over here. See my my I guess this stuff like that. And it could go up to that bump above here and then break lower have a smaller |
| 133 | 00:22:38 --> 00:22:46 | shift in market structure on lower timeframes and then resume going lower work could go even higher than that. Or it could just go sideways inside there's |
| 134 | 00:22:46 --> 00:22:56 | little shade there. Either way, the point is this, it's moved a lot. If you've made money, or if you haven't bank something here, you should, it doesn't mean |
| 135 | 00:22:56 --> 00:23:04 | close your entire position. It doesn't mean take new shorts on that's what I'm really getting at. Because we're really really, you know, oversold without |
| 136 | 00:23:04 --> 00:23:18 | saying what the indicators, because we've moved a great deal in our inside of a target that I've been calling for. And you now see it 15 minute timeframe. Okay, |
| 137 | 00:23:18 --> 00:23:24 | so even though it's back and forth in here, it's still delivered to the low end that inefficiency and then finally get the reaction here. |
| 138 | 00:23:26 --> 00:23:29 | When we get to the indices, it's even better. Speaking up, |
| 139 | 00:23:29 --> 00:23:37 | let's go over to the weekly chart ES. All right, and here is E Mini s&p. |
| 140 | 00:23:45 --> 00:23:52 | I appreciate all the thumbs up this morning. I was asking for that. Because encouragement to me, it's free to do it. And it kind of like gives me |
| 141 | 00:23:53 --> 00:23:57 | a report card on whether you like what it is I'm sharing in the commentary. |
| 142 | 00:23:58 --> 00:24:09 | Right. So I mentioned the inefficiency here. This is the woman balance and then reaching into higher timeframe. Levels and reasons for why price should drop or |
| 143 | 00:24:09 --> 00:24:23 | go higher. We went lower. We went outside the boundaries. I believe if I'm not mistaken. I think I changed this. From the weekly to the daily. I think I did I |
| 144 | 00:24:23 --> 00:24:30 | don't think we were talking about that this morning. That's why it's not looking right here. We'll we'll change it we get back in on the daily chart here. But |
| 145 | 00:24:30 --> 00:24:41 | this is the inefficiency on the fear agar. But including the volume and bounce. So it should look like that. And we went outside of that all of this price |
| 146 | 00:24:41 --> 00:24:55 | action in here is efficient until we get to here, meaning multiple candles have traded back and forth inside of a predetermined range. And I say predetermined |
| 147 | 00:24:55 --> 00:24:56 | in a way that |
| 148 | 00:24:56 --> 00:24:58 | I probably shouldn't have said that way |
| 149 | 00:25:04 --> 00:25:05 | Think about like this. |
| 150 | 00:25:08 --> 00:25:11 | Now trying to explain what a balanced price ranges |
| 151 | 00:25:17 --> 00:25:27 | Okay, between these two lines here, price has traveled down to this low up this high. And where do we spend the majority of time in the upper portion of this |
| 152 | 00:25:27 --> 00:25:40 | range. But back and forth, we've worked inside this range. And now we left it and create an imbalance right here. See that? So when and if we ever get back to |
| 153 | 00:25:40 --> 00:25:54 | this time, or price, which we did this week, here, it's going to take a very significant price run, to dig down all through this range of price. Because it's |
| 154 | 00:25:54 --> 00:26:02 | already went back and forth. There's nothing inefficient in here. That's what I'm getting at. Whereas we have an inefficiency here. But the volume imbalance |
| 155 | 00:26:02 --> 00:26:13 | and the Fair Pay Gap together combined, it's easy for price up here to truck down into that I was in top steps livestream two days ago announced they were |
| 156 | 00:26:13 --> 00:26:27 | talking about what they were looking for. And I said, I like I like this, the 610 level on NASDAQ. And that was because s&p has already in had already shown |
| 157 | 00:26:27 --> 00:26:37 | its willingness to want to go down and get into this area. So a six SR theory, which is what I'm teaching to, is because these markets are closely correlated, |
| 158 | 00:26:37 --> 00:26:44 | that means they usually move in tandem, not minute, for minute, not every single day, not every single session, sometimes there's a crack in that correlation. |
| 159 | 00:26:44 --> 00:26:54 | And that in itself is an insight that you can use. But for the perspective of looking at setups that have yet to form, one of the indices, just like one of |
| 160 | 00:26:54 --> 00:27:05 | the currencies might make a fast run, before you get a chance to get a hold of it. No problem. If the other correlated markets, or pairs if you're trading |
| 161 | 00:27:05 --> 00:27:16 | Forex, have yet to meet its respective objectives. And when we get into NASDAQ, I'll show you what I'm referring to specifically. But then the s&p had been the |
| 162 | 00:27:16 --> 00:27:24 | laggard, that means it's been the weaker of the two. Remember, all the beginning of the year, we were calling NASDAQ higher, higher, higher, higher, it was |
| 163 | 00:27:24 --> 00:27:36 | outperforming to the upside. And it was always delivered on the lungs. When the market became bearish, collectively, the s&p showed its weakness as the leader |
| 164 | 00:27:36 --> 00:27:44 | to the downside in terms of the speed at which it was reaching for its discount rates, specifically, these areas here, okay, the inefficiency between that |
| 165 | 00:27:44 --> 00:27:52 | candles low and his candles high. And I mentioned, whenever there's a volume imbalance there with a inefficiency, you always want to highlight that as well. |
| 166 | 00:27:52 --> 00:28:02 | So include that don't just leave it like this. That's a classic, you pass on analysis on efficiency, but you have to compensate with this. Because this is a |
| 167 | 00:28:02 --> 00:28:10 | volume of bounce in and of itself. So you have to make it like that. Okay, as I mentioned this morning, I apologize. I'm repeating myself, but I know there's |
| 168 | 00:28:10 --> 00:28:23 | some of you that are watching this and didn't watch this morning's. So we've seen some delivery, you know, extend, extend beyond the levels that I was |
| 169 | 00:28:23 --> 00:28:35 | looking for. And in this range in here. It's not able to get down through that. It's in the middle week, last week of September, we've covered a lot of ground. |
| 170 | 00:28:35 --> 00:28:47 | And this is a lot 1234 weeks that he down on indices like they got hammered. I don't see that as capitulation. I don't see that as the bottom. I don't think |
| 171 | 00:28:47 --> 00:28:57 | we're done going down. Okay. But I just want you to think in terms of when do we slow and pump the brakes, about taking new shorts. In instances like this, were |
| 172 | 00:28:57 --> 00:29:07 | in a deep discount. It doesn't mean I wouldn't take a short if it was really set up. It just means that you don't want to take heavy shorts. Don't do maximum |
| 173 | 00:29:07 --> 00:29:17 | leverage. Don't try to marry the idea that you're absolutely right. Because these are times where we can start seeing wicked intraday reversals where it's |
| 174 | 00:29:17 --> 00:29:30 | just running on short term buy side, just acquire new shorting positions, buy smart money, and then another dump lower. We can get a lot of these reversals, |
| 175 | 00:29:30 --> 00:29:40 | intraday now we're looking at a weekly chart and drop down to the daily. We can start seeing a lot of these types of candles here where we have wicks and tails |
| 176 | 00:29:40 --> 00:29:53 | on both sides of it. It can do that a lot in here, all in this range here. Because we are at a deep discount. And everybody is looking at the market that |
| 177 | 00:29:53 --> 00:30:03 | hasn't traded short. They're wanting to be short now. It's obvious to them that the markets been Don't want him to go down, because it's already happened. That |
| 178 | 00:30:03 --> 00:30:14 | is the classic Street Money perspective. And that's why I'm trying to teach you as a student of me to look at the market in that way. It's from a sentiment |
| 179 | 00:30:14 --> 00:30:23 | standpoint, they like patterns, they'd like to be confirming something, they'd like to have confirmation that what they're expecting in terms of the market |
| 180 | 00:30:23 --> 00:30:30 | being bullish or bearish, it needs to be in the chart for them, or they won't trust it. Because they don't know what it's going to do next, because they don't |
| 181 | 00:30:30 --> 00:30:38 | know where the markets likely to be drawn to, whether it be liquidity above or below the marketplace, or an inefficiency. And I'll give an example. Right now. |
| 182 | 00:30:39 --> 00:30:41 | We have an inefficiency here. |
| 183 | 00:30:43 --> 00:30:52 | I want to take this level off, you should keep it on your chart. Okay, but I'm gonna take it off so that way you guys can follow me a little bit easier. You |
| 184 | 00:30:52 --> 00:30:54 | guys are spoiled today. Look at this, you |
| 185 | 00:30:54 --> 00:30:55 | got two live streams from me. |
| 186 | 00:30:59 --> 00:31:09 | I feel kind of guilty because my wife kept me from doing the video wanted to do last night. So that's the teacher in me. So this is |
| 187 | 00:31:10 --> 00:31:18 | the premium inefficiency here and the premium by side is here. |
| 188 | 00:31:22 --> 00:31:27 | And I'll cover what that means in a second give me an x |
| 189 | 00:31:36 --> 00:31:46 | gonna miss me November. Top. It's maybe the bottom. And then there is |
| 190 | 00:31:47 --> 00:31:48 | this inefficiency here |
| 191 | 00:31:57 --> 00:32:12 | and then we'll change this to a blue hue. And always do that with the textbox. Here we go. Come on, oh, man. Do things the right way over here. |
| 192 | 00:32:13 --> 00:32:22 | All right. So we have this inefficiency here and what am I even talking about this one? Like, what's the deal? Well, I think fully repriced, at the low of it. |
| 193 | 00:32:22 --> 00:32:25 | Technically, we have what we have |
| 194 | 00:32:28 --> 00:32:29 | that inefficiency. |
| 195 | 00:32:29 --> 00:32:35 | I mean, tell me that something that you're worried about, I think no, I'm not worrying about I'm not losing sleep. I'm just saying that if we make a move |
| 196 | 00:32:36 --> 00:32:45 | lower out of this range, okay. It's reasonable for it to want to reach down in this area here because it has not delivered the difference between this candle |
| 197 | 00:32:45 --> 00:32:56 | here on May 25. The high of that candle and the low of this candle. I'm skipping past this one because we've already dropped down to the right of this candle the |
| 198 | 00:32:56 --> 00:33:06 | next day was here. We went down to that level but it did not completely touch this candle as high as a perfectly delivered efficient market would be it didn't |
| 199 | 00:33:06 --> 00:33:18 | do that. So what does that create the creates the same thing we're seeing here an inefficiency with by side above it. This is a sell side liquidity with |
| 200 | 00:33:18 --> 00:33:22 | inefficiency below. So you would have this |
| 201 | 00:33:28 --> 00:33:29 | I'm sorry. |
| 202 | 00:33:54 --> 00:33:56 | Okay, so now, |
| 203 | 00:33:57 --> 00:34:07 | what I've already done is I've literally gave you the two, either premium or discount levels that I'm interested in. So I'm not going to be with you on |
| 204 | 00:34:07 --> 00:34:18 | Twitter tomorrow. I'm not going to promise that I'll be on there on Friday. But going forward. If I don't talk to you on Twitter, tomorrow at all, which is most |
| 205 | 00:34:18 --> 00:34:28 | likely going to be the case. If I don't talk to you on Friday, you should be looking at the market from this perspective here. Premium up here, discount down |
| 206 | 00:34:28 --> 00:34:37 | here. So if you're watching price and you anticipating things that are going to be continuation of the current thing here, which is bearishness, this is where |
| 207 | 00:34:37 --> 00:34:50 | we would want to see a drawl to anything animated beyond that on the low end, is the sell side down here and I'll throw that on here for you. That to me, I think |
| 208 | 00:34:50 --> 00:35:00 | is a little overzealous for for this week. But hey, anything can happen, right? Anything can happen, but the market is gonna go up to this We're going to go |
| 209 | 00:35:00 --> 00:35:07 | down to that. And what you need to be doing is watching what price does at specific times of the day. That's what I teach my students. That's what my |
| 210 | 00:35:07 --> 00:35:16 | profitable students do. That's what I've been teaching my son to focus on. That's how I trade, I look for indications that the markets want to reach to one |
| 211 | 00:35:16 --> 00:35:25 | of these higher timeframe levels. It's a drawn liquidity. Tomorrow, like safer and everything stops the way it is. And overnight, we stay rather tight doesn't |
| 212 | 00:35:25 --> 00:35:33 | move very much. And it stays really close to what we've seen in the body of this candle. Highly unlikely. But let's just play devil's advocate for a moment and |
| 213 | 00:35:33 --> 00:35:45 | suggest that that's the case. I would require 930 to 10 o'clock in the opening session, or opening range of tomorrow's morning session, which I have no |
| 214 | 00:35:45 --> 00:35:52 | interested in trading. Because it's already done everything I wanted to do. Personally for this week, I can be wrong, I'm probably going to be wrong. So |
| 215 | 00:35:52 --> 00:36:01 | don't take what I'm about to say as the gospel, it could create another lower low. I don't suspect that it will. If it does, it's only going to go down to |
| 216 | 00:36:01 --> 00:36:10 | this level here. And that would be sufficient for me if I was trading tomorrow, but I would want to see an opening range tomorrow. Rally, run some short term |
| 217 | 00:36:10 --> 00:36:22 | buy side, as I mentioned on Patrick Whelan's live demos with them, visiting him in his members. In early stages of the day, I had no real bias that I wanted to |
| 218 | 00:36:22 --> 00:36:29 | work with. And then I mentioned how I wanted to see price run higher, take by side and then show displacement, the downside, then I pointed out new saw cipher |
| 219 | 00:36:29 --> 00:36:40 | liquidity, liquidity for NASDAQ. And then you all know as my students were, we have been looking for longer term, and s&p and NASDAQ delivered like gangbusters |
| 220 | 00:36:40 --> 00:36:48 | today. So it's a matter of knowing what you're looking for the higher timeframe so that way, you don't take a trade on an intraday basis, whether it be a one |
| 221 | 00:36:48 --> 00:36:56 | minute chart, or a couple second chart or a five minute chart, a 15 minute timeframe. And soon as you get a little bit of a move. And you think, Okay, |
| 222 | 00:36:56 --> 00:37:04 | that's it, I'm done. If, if that's how you're starting your progress, and you're you're building up the courage to hold the trade a little bit longer, that's |
| 223 | 00:37:04 --> 00:37:14 | fine. But if you know that you can hold them longer because there's a model that suggests it's going to go lower. And having these higher timeframe, like this |
| 224 | 00:37:14 --> 00:37:25 | inefficiency here that was taught to you and showing you for weeks now, the tendency is for you to try to leave something on for these types of runs. And |
| 225 | 00:37:25 --> 00:37:39 | when you get them even if it's one micro, okay, that very long, protracted price run that you're a participant in. That is a huge confidence builder. And you |
| 226 | 00:37:39 --> 00:37:48 | want to have those in your in your trading, because it teaches you patience, it teaches you how to not feel like I gotta win. And I got to take everything off |
| 227 | 00:37:48 --> 00:37:58 | right now. Because I can't stand it. If you feel that in your trading, in your trading with multiple contracts, take everything off that one. And just put your |
| 228 | 00:37:58 --> 00:38:07 | stop where you're gonna make 200 bucks or whatever it is, you're gonna make something and just leave it alone. Literally just leave it alone. If you're |
| 229 | 00:38:07 --> 00:38:17 | nervous watching it, just walk away, the stops there, but your target your limit order at the higher timeframe level plus a couple handles or maybe five pips. If |
| 230 | 00:38:17 --> 00:38:25 | you're trading Forex, and just let it go. You've already banked it, you've already took the lion's portion of the move out. If you don't do this, you will |
| 231 | 00:38:25 --> 00:38:36 | never, you will never develop the courage and patience to wait for these trades to pan out and you hear these folks completely undermine themselves by |
| 232 | 00:38:36 --> 00:38:48 | complaining publicly in tweets and videos and live streams. It's so hard. Why is it so hard? Why can't I hold the tray but why don't you listen? Why don't you |
| 233 | 00:38:48 --> 00:38:56 | listen to the things I'm suggesting to you because it's easy to do. If you continuously desensitize yourself to it. In the beginning, it's going to be |
| 234 | 00:38:56 --> 00:39:06 | hard. It is very hard to hold for longer term targets. Very, very hard to do it. But if you don't gradually press into that discomfort and show yourself that |
| 235 | 00:39:07 --> 00:39:15 | isn't as bad as I thought it was. I mean, what's the worst that's going to happen? If you're in a trade you're up, so you're up 50 handles in trading the |
| 236 | 00:39:15 --> 00:39:27 | indices are 50 pips in forex, but you have an objective that says it still can move another 100 points or handles or pips. And you can afford to take off |
| 237 | 00:39:29 --> 00:39:42 | majority of it and leave one remaining contract or lock on the trade. And you move that remaining one to a profitable stop out if it does turn on you. To me, |
| 238 | 00:39:42 --> 00:39:53 | it's very frustrating that I see a lot of folks that repeat this, and they've been doing it all year long. And I've said this in tweets, I've said it in |
| 239 | 00:39:53 --> 00:40:03 | Twitter spaces where I'm talking live and giving trade psychology and insights and stuff. And I'm doing that here because As I see live streamers that I |
| 240 | 00:40:03 --> 00:40:13 | literally follow. And I watch, it's not just one, it's all of them. And they never hold on to these big runners because they feel like they can't hold the |
| 241 | 00:40:13 --> 00:40:23 | trade anymore. And I think the the impact of being in public and being weighed in the balances by everyone watching, that has such a huge impact on their |
| 242 | 00:40:23 --> 00:40:32 | ability to be comfortable, it makes them uncomfortable. And when they have a when they just simply want to take it all off. That's the same thing that you're |
| 243 | 00:40:32 --> 00:40:42 | feeling to in the privacy of your trading, where nobody's really watching you. But that pressure is so overwhelming, that you just have to get out because it's |
| 244 | 00:40:42 --> 00:40:51 | so hard holding on to that win. Now, some of you that have never had a winning trade, don't understand what that feels like. You're like, Man, I wouldn't have |
| 245 | 00:40:51 --> 00:41:01 | that problem, I would hold it, no, you wouldn't know you wouldn't. The first stage of rolling as a profitable trader is first of all, staying breakeven, then |
| 246 | 00:41:01 --> 00:41:11 | working towards profitability, on small little base hits. Then after you've built the foundation of doing that, you start stretching yourself just a little |
| 247 | 00:41:11 --> 00:41:22 | bit more, if you're doing 10 handles, okay, go for 15, you can do 15, okay, stretch for 20. You don't want to do what my son did today and reach for, okay, |
| 248 | 00:41:22 --> 00:41:35 | I'm going to reach for five contracts, which is extremely over leveraged, and try to do 40 handles wasn't ready for it, and then try to fix the mistakes |
| 249 | 00:41:35 --> 00:41:46 | because he had a 12 day perfect track record. That's what happens. I literally tweeted two days ago, showing his equity curve, saying this is when you want to |
| 250 | 00:41:46 --> 00:41:58 | take a break. This is exactly when that inevitable loss is going to come. And when it does, it unravels you and look what happened. It happened. So to avoid |
| 251 | 00:41:58 --> 00:42:07 | these things, you have to listen to the things I'm telling you to focus on. I promise you, that things that you're worrying about that are so uncomfortable, |
| 252 | 00:42:08 --> 00:42:18 | if you just simply do the things I'm suggesting to you, it'll help you overcome that fear of missing out fear of, you know, getting stopped out, you know, fear |
| 253 | 00:42:18 --> 00:42:27 | of losing trade, and all those things are easily managed if you do the things I'm suggesting you do. But one of the things that frustrates me as a trader |
| 254 | 00:42:27 --> 00:42:36 | teacher, mentor influencer online, is I see other folks out there that constantly complain about how they can't hold on to these big wins when they |
| 255 | 00:42:36 --> 00:42:46 | can, because they're holding multiple contracts. They're holding multiple contracts. And if you just simply just leave one on and who cares? Who cares if |
| 256 | 00:42:46 --> 00:42:55 | it runs 50 More handles on it, and then turns around and eventually stops out? That gave you more experience to hold on to it. You could have moved your stop |
| 257 | 00:42:55 --> 00:43:06 | loss and made a larger stop out profitable exit. But how are you going to grow? How are you going to progress if you don't press into these discomfortable this |
| 258 | 00:43:06 --> 00:43:16 | comfortable. If you don't press into these uncomfortable positions where it's displeasing to you, you want to escape it, you have to find a way to be |
| 259 | 00:43:16 --> 00:43:26 | comfortable in your own skin while you're trading because this is the way it's done. And if you're constantly put yourself in the highest form of stress, the |
| 260 | 00:43:26 --> 00:43:36 | highest form of leverage, placing so much weight on your results having to be an Olympic level. You're doing what every professional money manager and trader |
| 261 | 00:43:36 --> 00:43:37 | doesn't do. |
| 262 | 00:43:39 --> 00:43:52 | I'm gonna say that, again, you're making this so likely to be impossible. But you don't see it. You don't see it happening. Because you want these |
| 263 | 00:43:52 --> 00:44:03 | astronomical returns these unbelievable and fathomable results where nobody can come close to that. And it's true, you can't even do it. But you're gonna |
| 264 | 00:44:03 --> 00:44:13 | convince yourself every time you go out there that this is what you should try to do. When my son tried to do it again. Now, he hit maximum loss, he has to |
| 265 | 00:44:13 --> 00:44:24 | start tomorrow recuperating from that. Can you do it? I believe he can. But can he listen? Can he listen to that? Can you listen to the rules? Today? He showed |
| 266 | 00:44:24 --> 00:44:34 | me what I'm able to. But for 12 days he did. So that's progress. That's not failure. That's progress. So now he has to work towards Okay, can I do it now? |
| 267 | 00:44:34 --> 00:44:43 | 13 days. That's his that's his goal. His mind says go forward following the rules for 13 days because not only do it 12 days, so now Dad's gonna put his |
| 268 | 00:44:43 --> 00:44:51 | foot my ass and say okay, you got to do it. One more day past that, and then he's in a new territory for learning. If you don't do those things in your |
| 269 | 00:44:51 --> 00:44:59 | trading, if you don't journal that you're never gonna be able to measure real progress. You're gonna be spinning your wheels, and while you might have passed |
| 270 | 00:44:59 --> 00:45:08 | that experiences where you've profited, we've taken profits of the market, maybe you've taken payouts in these funded account companies. But at some point, |
| 271 | 00:45:08 --> 00:45:14 | you're going to have to have a real graduated increase in your understanding in your in your ability to do what it is you're doing, you speculate in these |
| 272 | 00:45:14 --> 00:45:14 | markets |
| 273 | 00:45:19 --> 00:45:22 | compute computer's on its last leg here, plug it in. |
| 274 | 00:45:24 --> 00:45:34 | So anyway, this is what happens when you get a lashing from me. I'm gonna go on all these the three decade rabbit trails, but it's all good stuff. I mean, this |
| 275 | 00:45:34 --> 00:45:42 | is the stuff if you want to know, if you don't think that you don't want to know, then you're a fool. Because you're the ones probably still working a job. |
| 276 | 00:45:43 --> 00:45:51 | I don't mean to be ignorant, but you want to start working, you want to build wealth, you want to start doing things. As a speculator, these are things that |
| 277 | 00:45:51 --> 00:46:03 | you have to do. And the only way you learn how to do it, or go to another level of knowledge is you have to press in, press into that discomfort, press into |
| 278 | 00:46:03 --> 00:46:10 | that uncertainty, and do a little bit more of what you're not comfortable doing right now. And that's why it takes time. That's why nobody's going to learn this |
| 279 | 00:46:10 --> 00:46:17 | overnight, you're not going to walk out there, you're not going to be the the Babe Ruth of trading, where you can point to the outfield, where the balls gonna |
| 280 | 00:46:17 --> 00:46:25 | go when the guy pitches it and you just hit a grand slam. That's not how this works, folks. I mean, it's a lot of learning curve to it. And we're in very |
| 281 | 00:46:25 --> 00:46:37 | difficult markets. And I mentioned this before, I've been looking at these markets for over 30 years come November. Now, think about this. These markets |
| 282 | 00:46:37 --> 00:46:52 | are the most difficult that I've ever seen. Don't think, don't think that everybody that's been doing for a long time sees this as easy markets right now, |
| 283 | 00:46:52 --> 00:47:01 | because it's not, we have a lot of things looming, constantly overtop of us, geopolitical. Across the globe, there's things that may be kicked off that cause |
| 284 | 00:47:01 --> 00:47:09 | us potential harm, the economy, nothing good about it, to not do anything to increase or improve it. All those factors are constantly coming out and |
| 285 | 00:47:09 --> 00:47:23 | bombarding us. And it makes investors scared. And so the market is going to try, you know, try to turn and move all around. But it should be what confident |
| 286 | 00:47:23 --> 00:47:33 | building, seeing the things I'm teaching you still, even in these climates, even in these environments, they're still a measure of precision, that if you stop |
| 287 | 00:47:33 --> 00:47:42 | and think, Okay, if I only do a handful of trades per week, I'm talking like, three, three trades a week. And you really limit it down to the very best that |
| 288 | 00:47:42 --> 00:47:52 | the best setups from a four hour an hourly chart, and when it does something in those timeframes that leads to an objective that's rooted on something based on |
| 289 | 00:47:52 --> 00:48:06 | a weekly chart, or a daily chart as a as a target or a draw on liquidity. Your trading will improve light years. But in your mind as a new student or a new |
| 290 | 00:48:06 --> 00:48:18 | trader, you think progress is every day making money every day doing something with an execution, where you're putting on risk, what you're doing is you're |
| 291 | 00:48:18 --> 00:48:26 | conditioning yourself to be a gambler, and you're conditioned yourself to be hopped up on risk all the time, never being comfortable in your skin, and trying |
| 292 | 00:48:26 --> 00:48:38 | to do something that nobody can sustain that nobody can sustain 100% I can have a good run. My son, I'm trying to make him better than me. He might be better |
| 293 | 00:48:38 --> 00:48:46 | than me in the future. He may be out here teaching everybody the things that I don't want to teach you. But he's never gonna get to that point until he does |
| 294 | 00:48:46 --> 00:48:55 | what he's asked to do that's uncomfortable. And he wants to get around it because it's unpleasant. He wants a shortcut. It's like, I want to trade for 50 |
| 295 | 00:48:55 --> 00:49:09 | handles. I want to go for those 100 handle moves, dad. I think I got it. You don't have it. You don't have it yet, but you're working towards it. So I gotta |
| 296 | 00:49:09 --> 00:49:18 | I gotta let me get back to this. I'll do a Twitter space this weekend. We'll finish off on this topic. But the idea is when it's down in these deep discounts |
| 297 | 00:49:18 --> 00:49:27 | try to avoid trying to take large risks on new positions because we've already moved a lot. reason why is because we're likely to retrace because it's going to |
| 298 | 00:49:27 --> 00:49:38 | want to seek liquidity. Smart Money will selling buy stocks being rated, that's being trailed. So when we get these deep discount moves like this here, just |
| 299 | 00:49:38 --> 00:49:45 | think okay, where are the short term stops? And that's what I look for. That's exactly what I call it out and Patrick Whelan's lifetime this morning, I wanted |
| 300 | 00:49:45 --> 00:50:00 | to see biceps hit, then displacement lower and then through the form, everything happened like we've been calling for weeks. 60 minute chart. Okay, why long |
| 301 | 00:50:00 --> 00:50:10 | process of working towards all this and then finally moving lower outside the range of that inefficiency. And then it's going to a 15 minute timeframe |
| 302 | 00:50:15 --> 00:50:19 | I'll close candles, once they're broken, they should act as resistance. |
| 303 | 00:50:21 --> 00:50:28 | Resistance. resistance resistance |
| 304 | 00:50:30 --> 00:50:42 | down here, where are we at don't lose sight. Where are we at in this shaded area? We're at the low end of that inefficiency. So trading up to this level |
| 305 | 00:50:42 --> 00:50:52 | here to act as resistance. Probably not going to happen. But it does go into this gap here. And then trade outside of the range, the shaded area. And then we |
| 306 | 00:50:52 --> 00:50:58 | have what? what's occurring. swing high, broken. |
| 307 | 00:51:00 --> 00:51:01 | Breaker. |
| 308 | 00:51:03 --> 00:51:15 | Watch that tonight. This right here. To me, I think this is just asking to come back up in that area. So on your charts on your 15 minute timeframe you want to |
| 309 | 00:51:15 --> 00:51:24 | have this is this is exactly where everybody's trailed stop losses are sitting right above that. I'm not talking about you retail Rick's stop, I'm talking |
| 310 | 00:51:24 --> 00:51:34 | about somebody that has real money in the marketplace. They have trailed their stops down here. From all the way back here or something Hunter, this right here |
| 311 | 00:51:34 --> 00:51:45 | is where they're stopped, right? So if the market wants to go higher, what would they reach for? Is there any any inefficiencies in here, relative to where we're |
| 312 | 00:51:45 --> 00:51:56 | at right now? No, there's nothing up here. So what would they be reaching for? If it's not in efficiencies above the marketplace? What is vise stops where |
| 313 | 00:51:56 --> 00:52:09 | Dubai stops reside above single highs or relative equal highs. So right in here, I'd be really interested in seeing what we do up at these levels here. And if we |
| 314 | 00:52:09 --> 00:52:19 | if we stay like this, and we don't break this low overnight, I would expect this run here tomorrow morning. And I would look for a setup that either would allow |
| 315 | 00:52:19 --> 00:52:28 | me a run up into it, or if it does it, I'd like to see it break shift and market structure any fair value gap with short debt, and an aim for whatever low forms |
| 316 | 00:52:28 --> 00:52:39 | after I'm sorry, prior to that, relatively kowhai been swept? Is that complicated? I mean, really, let's be honest, the formula? Is that complicated? |
| 317 | 00:52:39 --> 00:52:50 | It's not. It's really simple stuff. But the logic behind the things I teach in my concepts is I want to give you details, because that's what I required. Maybe |
| 318 | 00:52:50 --> 00:52:57 | you don't need to know why every single candle should be formed a specific way, you just want to find a set up that you can identify, there's nothing wrong with |
| 319 | 00:52:57 --> 00:53:04 | that. There's absolutely no you don't need to know everything that I know. Or in that I'm willing to teach or everything on my YouTube channel. You don't need to |
| 320 | 00:53:04 --> 00:53:11 | know all that stuff. You just need to understand, where's the unlikely draw on liquidity on the higher timeframe? What's the weekly chart gonna be reaching for |
| 321 | 00:53:12 --> 00:53:21 | a higher level or a lower level? What is that level is an inefficiency or is it stops? Whichever one that is, you stick with that going forward into the week. |
| 322 | 00:53:22 --> 00:53:31 | And you just use every specific session and the market structure that would support that idea, and then choose your setups wisely. I gave you a silver |
| 323 | 00:53:31 --> 00:53:38 | bullet model between 10 o'clock in the morning and 11 o'clock in the morning New York local time. That makes it so easy. So easy. You know when you're going to |
| 324 | 00:53:38 --> 00:53:44 | be trading before that you didn't know what the hell you were doing. When does this stuff form? I don't know. I said he's got a million videos. What are we |
| 325 | 00:53:44 --> 00:53:52 | supposed to do all that stuff? I don't it's too complicated. Let's go get me a Moving Average crossover and stochastics. That's a cop out. I mean, I literally |
| 326 | 00:53:52 --> 00:53:58 | made it really easy for you. You have a silver bullet at two o'clock to three o'clock you have a silver bullet at three o'clock to four o'clock. Near |
| 327 | 00:53:58 --> 00:54:06 | political time. You have one at three o'clock in the morning to four o'clock in the morning london session. If you really really want it, you can do seven |
| 328 | 00:54:06 --> 00:54:18 | o'clock in the morning to 830 Yep, just love tucking them in there real deep, real deep in the videos. Guys don't want to stick around for it. They never get |
| 329 | 00:54:18 --> 00:54:33 | that stuff. Alright, let's go to the weekly chart and wrap this up with NASDAQ because you just have to do alright, so here is the NASDAQ on a weekly chart. |
| 330 | 00:54:37 --> 00:54:43 | And my son was working with him today. He deleted all this stuff to add it all back. I apologize. |
| 331 | 00:54:48 --> 00:54:59 | All right. And then this is the inefficiency I was telling you about these relatively equal lows. We would draw down to this I don't believe we're done |
| 332 | 00:54:59 --> 00:55:11 | with NASDAQ. Even though we've seen the s&p dig down into its respective inefficiency and go below it. This is the sixth sister theory. Okay? Because s&p |
| 333 | 00:55:11 --> 00:55:24 | has already done it. I don't know, here's a real big thing here. If you've always heard me refer to a SMT divergence. Okay. SMT is a smart money technique |
| 334 | 00:55:24 --> 00:55:35 | or Smart Money tool. I've never settled on what the T stands for. But it's it's my way of reading cracks in correlation. Perfect example would be this. s&p has |
| 335 | 00:55:35 --> 00:55:45 | already traded down to its respective inefficiency, as we're seeing here for NASDAQ. NASDAQ just entered it today. What does that mean to me? I don't see |
| 336 | 00:55:45 --> 00:55:57 | that as s&p Divergence that's bullish. See, some of you are wrestling with that? What's the difference between six SR and s&p? And how do I not get fooled by |
| 337 | 00:55:57 --> 00:56:09 | SMT? When six SR is being employed? Well, that's experience number one. Experience is going to dictate that. And some of you don't want the experience. |
| 338 | 00:56:09 --> 00:56:19 | You want overnight success on luck. You want lottery win windfalls that had no real bearing on skill set. And I'm trying to teach you how to acquire real skill |
| 339 | 00:56:19 --> 00:56:29 | set through experience that takes time. So to answer your questions that come in my comment sections and or folks that send me tweets, I see that, but I have to |
| 340 | 00:56:29 --> 00:56:36 | wait for a time where it makes sense talking about over the charts. I'm not going to just go out and make a video because you sent me tweets or questions in |
| 341 | 00:56:36 --> 00:56:47 | the comment section. I'll get to many of them. But the difference between SMT which is like for instance, because the NASDAQ did not go lower, like the s&p |
| 342 | 00:56:47 --> 00:56:59 | did. Normal normally, if I was bullish, that would be something I would be interested in going long one. But what is my bias? It's bearish. So I'm willing |
| 343 | 00:56:59 --> 00:57:13 | to submit to the idea that this is a temporary inability for NASDAQ to deliver on the same context that s&p submitted to earlier. In other words, lower prices |
| 344 | 00:57:13 --> 00:57:25 | are expected. s&p was quick to get to its targets faster. NASDAQ will just do it at a later time. I don't see this as okay, what's what's gonna go higher SMT |
| 345 | 00:57:25 --> 00:57:36 | bullish divergence and s&p bullish divergence would be s&p making lower low NASDAQ making a higher low or reverse it, NASDAQ making a lower low and s&p |
| 346 | 00:57:36 --> 00:57:49 | making a higher high, higher low. That divergence between relative equal or what would be not equal but relative highs and lows. They should agree. If s&p makes |
| 347 | 00:57:49 --> 00:58:00 | a higher high, then NASDAQ should make a higher if NASDAQ makes a lower low, s&p should make a lower low on an interim short term intraday basis. I can use that |
| 348 | 00:58:00 --> 00:58:12 | as a confirmation to something I already expect in price. So I use s&p in that regard as a one more Confluence. I don't need SMT. But I like it to be in |
| 349 | 00:58:12 --> 00:58:24 | certain trades. I'm not demanding SMT to try to call the bottom in the s&p in the NASDAQ yet because I'm believing that we still have weeks still calendar |
| 350 | 00:58:24 --> 00:58:35 | wise, of lower prices. There's absolutely nothing bullish about equities right now. And more people are going to be interested in selling short, which is why |
| 351 | 00:58:35 --> 00:58:44 | they allow these things that occur in the fall. It's It's engineered. You think and you've heard, oh, it's selling pressure. People are getting out of their |
| 352 | 00:58:44 --> 00:58:52 | shorts, arms are getting out of their lungs and selling. No, the markets just repricing lower because they want you to sell. It's not going down because you |
| 353 | 00:58:52 --> 00:59:00 | are all collectively selling. They want you to sell why would the market be engineered to do that? Because they want to accumulate at lower prices because |
| 354 | 00:59:00 --> 00:59:10 | they run funds. They run funds, they manage funds, and they want to get those stock prices lower so they can buy them up at a discount. That's the real world |
| 355 | 00:59:10 --> 00:59:15 | folks. That's how these markets work. That's the industry okay. You can argue and talk about but this guy wrote this about this in his book, he made it I |
| 356 | 00:59:15 --> 00:59:25 | don't care about that. Okay about all that stuff. Okay. That's nonsense. That's fiction. These markets are rigged, they're controlled. And if you submit the the |
| 357 | 00:59:25 --> 00:59:35 | idea that there are seasonal influences that take place in the marketplace, and nothing here technically suggests to me that we've made the law I don't see it. |
| 358 | 00:59:35 --> 00:59:44 | So I'm going to stay with the idea that I believe that the NASDAQ will eventually dig into the deeper end of this shaded area and trade into this |
| 359 | 00:59:44 --> 00:59:51 | volume and balance right there between this candles opening and this candles close. I believe that that's where we're going to trade to and if we get over |
| 360 | 00:59:51 --> 00:59:55 | zealous and move lower this area here. |
| 361 | 00:59:56 --> 01:00:01 | Okay, so let's drop into a daily chart. Make these short brief videos. |
| 362 | 01:00:03 --> 01:00:08 | All right in our ICT What the hell are you doing man? Relative equal lows. |
| 363 | 01:00:09 --> 01:00:11 | Hear me take this off just for a second. |
| 364 | 01:00:12 --> 01:00:22 | We like them long ICT keep going right? Keep it going. We brought roads next. So we traded lower, hit it today here. And this inefficiency down here, I think |
| 365 | 01:00:22 --> 01:00:37 | we're going to dig into that. This level here, this is midpoint of that candles tail, or the wick below the body. Half of that is consequent encouragement. I |
| 366 | 01:00:37 --> 01:00:48 | don't want to see it really go above these two candles here. I don't want to see that. It can ultimately it can do that. I mentioned this morning, the very |
| 367 | 01:00:48 --> 01:00:59 | specific things that I would be willing to submit to and or what would cause me to no longer be bearish on NASDAQ. So I'll leave that for you to go look at that |
| 368 | 01:00:59 --> 01:01:13 | in that live stream. But I would have that consequent encroachment there noted in the bottom of this candle, which is the opening price right there. So 148 ad, |
| 369 | 01:01:13 --> 01:01:17 | and have that as a key level for our chart. |
| 370 | 01:01:20 --> 01:01:21 | Look at that move right there. |
| 371 | 01:01:22 --> 01:01:23 | That's the relative equal lows |
| 372 | 01:01:24 --> 01:01:35 | on the daily chart over here now on the four hour chart, look at the delivery of that the bodies are just perfect. |
| 373 | 01:01:37 --> 01:01:49 | And then we ran up to here, okay. And kind of like the similar fashion that I mentioned on the s&p, it's reasonable to see it want to revert, revert back to |
| 374 | 01:01:50 --> 01:01:57 | some measure by side. So these highs in here look a little too clean for me. If it goes there, it might go above this. |
| 375 | 01:01:58 --> 01:02:00 | There's an inefficiency right there. |
| 376 | 01:02:00 --> 01:02:09 | So that would clean up all the bad side here and go right in the area there. So I would have that on my charts overnight going into tomorrow morning. If we make |
| 377 | 01:02:09 --> 01:02:20 | a lower low tomorrow, just be careful because we could have a sharper retracement, if you start to go against all this down draft in price. Tomorrow |
| 378 | 01:02:20 --> 01:02:30 | Thursday's, generally after we met so many downside objectives and targets that we've been calling for months, it's likely that Thursday can create the low of |
| 379 | 01:02:30 --> 01:02:39 | the week. So you want to be careful. Okay, so don't try to we start seeing some really extrapolated retracements. If we make a lower low than what we have for |
| 380 | 01:02:39 --> 01:02:52 | today's low, don't fight that. Because it can go back into even up here. And it would still be okay for longer term. Remember, we have lower objectives than |
| 381 | 01:02:52 --> 01:03:02 | where we're at right now. And smart money is greedy, just like you. And they know that there are real orders up here. And they know that if they send it up |
| 382 | 01:03:02 --> 01:03:10 | in here, people are going to want to think this is a low and they'll be buying all that stuff. And they'll be selling into all that rally. And eventually you |
| 383 | 01:03:10 --> 01:03:19 | try to ride it into the coming weeks going into November maybe the see the lows that I think are later in the calendar year. |
| 384 | 01:03:21 --> 01:03:27 | All right, so 60 minute chart hourly. Okay, and |
| 385 | 01:03:29 --> 01:03:46 | small little inefficiency right there. That's what we watched price go up into this morning. Consequent encouragement here for that. So took by side here. By |
| 386 | 01:03:46 --> 01:03:55 | running up in the afternoon, this morning, it just touched the the bottom end of it See that right there at nine o'clock. Almost gave me a rebalance right there |
| 387 | 01:03:55 --> 01:04:04 | to see that on this candle. Again, that's one of the strongest things you'll see in price action, if it can do it immediately once it creates a big candle |
| 388 | 01:04:04 --> 01:04:13 | upward, big candle down, no matter what timeframe if you have a bias is bullish or bearish. When you see that, that's like saying, it's time to get in right |
| 389 | 01:04:13 --> 01:04:22 | now. And your stop losses can be really, really short and tight. And then they have immediate snappy response where it delivered and runs right towards where |
| 390 | 01:04:22 --> 01:04:31 | you want to see it go to interaction. It's just a real fun thing to practice, which is a wonderful thing to do with one minute charts. 32nd charts, the 15 |
| 391 | 01:04:31 --> 01:04:41 | second charts, those things repeat so many times in the day, immediate rebalances they those things are wonderful. The practice is not about how many |
| 392 | 01:04:41 --> 01:04:49 | handles you make how many pips you make, it's practicing when it happens, okay, train your eye does it move immediately after doing that, as you would expect |
| 393 | 01:04:50 --> 01:04:58 | and when you do that you completely desensitize yourself from the fear that you think selling short when the markets going up. A lot of you don't want to do |
| 394 | 01:04:58 --> 01:05:07 | that. It's scary to do that. Well, when you're trading a fair value, you're doing that very thing. And most of you, and my son was guilty of this and still |
| 395 | 01:05:07 --> 01:05:14 | is, sometimes he's afraid if it's a real fast run up into it, and he's bearish or is expecting lower prices, I told him in the morning, this is where I think |
| 396 | 01:05:14 --> 01:05:23 | the markets gonna go to today. That's what I do. Just like I do it on Twitter for all you. That's not me trading his account. That's me saying, Son focus |
| 397 | 01:05:23 --> 01:05:33 | here. And then whenever you get a fair value gap, something that lines up after a stop hunt, then go in and do what you're looking for. That's not complicated. |
| 398 | 01:05:34 --> 01:05:47 | But you have to have patience to wait for that type of stuff. And also, you have to have a little bit of balls basically, to go short as the markets going up in |
| 399 | 01:05:47 --> 01:05:58 | fair value gap entries, institutional order flow entries, fading old highs or lows, that skill set requires you to just trust that you believe it's going to |
| 400 | 01:05:58 --> 01:06:07 | go to a direction that's opposing the current delivery of price. That means if you're bearish, you're looking to enter when prices are going up into areas |
| 401 | 01:06:07 --> 01:06:17 | where it's inefficient or taking up stops. What kind of stops by stops, and you practice that intraday, you literally tape read, that means you're not even |
| 402 | 01:06:17 --> 01:06:27 | pushing the button, not a demo, not your combine not your funded account, not your Live account, you're just simply watching into. It just traded into an area |
| 403 | 01:06:27 --> 01:06:35 | where I would be pressing a button right now I'm not doing it. But now let's see what I see in price. And you desensitize yourself to that by watching it real |
| 404 | 01:06:35 --> 01:06:43 | time. That tape reading, it ain't about looking at level two data that can be spoofed. Okay, it's not the DOM. It's not ladders, it's none of that stuff. It's |
| 405 | 01:06:43 --> 01:06:50 | simply this looking at price, how it delivers, at a specific time of day, for either inefficiencies or liquidity pools above or below marketplace. That's it. |
| 406 | 01:06:50 --> 01:07:03 | That's all. That's all price is doing. That's it, that's all it ever does. No patterns, no, nothing. It's just that 15 minute timeframe. Right, look all this |
| 407 | 01:07:03 --> 01:07:09 | back and forth in here. Finally, he got real heavy here, broke lower, |
| 408 | 01:07:10 --> 01:07:11 | fair Vega |
| 409 | 01:07:13 --> 01:07:27 | breaks down clears the level that we were looking for. Once it got down below it. Look at the reaction is that random? You knew about this level down here. |
| 410 | 01:07:28 --> 01:07:38 | For a month and a half. We've been talking about it as a draw. We've been looking for reasons to anticipate the market wanting to get down to this level. |
| 411 | 01:07:40 --> 01:07:54 | We got down to here. And a lot of traders banked at that level and just below it. This rally here is not as a result of them covering shorts. That's what |
| 412 | 01:07:54 --> 01:08:01 | they'll tell you. They'll tell you, this is a short covering rally. It's a squeeze because shorts are covering. I used to talk like that. And when I was in |
| 413 | 01:08:01 --> 01:08:12 | my 20s Because that's what the books and everybody on social media on the forum message boards. That's what I was on AOL. That's what everyone tells you. So if |
| 414 | 01:08:12 --> 01:08:21 | you hang around that that herd that herd mentality, you'll talk like them to you hang around cows, you'll mu you hang around pigs, you're like, Okay, so you |
| 415 | 01:08:21 --> 01:08:31 | don't want to be around people that talk like that, because it's going to keep you from seeing how the market really books price, which is absolutely 100% |
| 416 | 01:08:31 --> 01:08:39 | rigged. It's rigged. It's an algorithm. It runs like a video game that's coded. It's already predetermined. The highs and lows are already predetermined. Oh, |
| 417 | 01:08:39 --> 01:08:50 | that's bullshit. It's the way it is. I couldn't call these things before I do it publicly, and then be this consistent if it wasn't rigged. Nobody could be this |
| 418 | 01:08:50 --> 01:08:59 | lucky, right? Let me think about nobody can be that lucky that precise. And it's because I understand what's going on behind these candles at the time of day, |
| 419 | 01:09:00 --> 01:09:11 | the day of the week, that week or the month, that month of the year, that season of the year, and how all these things relate to one another. And I'm waiting for |
| 420 | 01:09:11 --> 01:09:20 | these choice opportunities where everything is one sided, when I have everything one sided, and I can see what it's going to likely reach for. That's when I |
| 421 | 01:09:20 --> 01:09:27 | tweet, that's when I go into other people's live streams and I tell them what's going to happen and it happens. That's not bragging. I'm just telling you these |
| 422 | 01:09:27 --> 01:09:35 | are things that people have learned from me and they do it on their own. And they're making real money, lots of money. I have students that are losing money |
| 423 | 01:09:35 --> 01:09:39 | and they're trying very hard to get out of that like anything else. This is going to take a lot of effort and |
| 424 | 01:09:39 --> 01:09:55 | a lot of time will drop down to a five minute chart here. All we back up into that inefficiency taking up the my site there this morning was really nice. That |
| 425 | 01:09:55 --> 01:10:01 | was That was so good. And then this is the target |
| 426 | 01:10:02 --> 01:10:11 | liquidity at it. It's not Support Resistance folks. Okay, support resistance would say, okay, got down here by now we want to get to it and through it. The |
| 427 | 01:10:11 --> 01:10:21 | way I teach my students is we have a level, we have an inefficiency, we want to drive into that, like a bulldozer and just plow right on through it. Because |
| 428 | 01:10:21 --> 01:10:31 | it's not the level that's important. It's the liquidity. beyond it. That's what we're targeting. It's not support resistance, that's garbage. That stuff is a |
| 429 | 01:10:31 --> 01:10:41 | losers mindset. Knowing why a level should be traded to and through it, is the beginning of understanding why the market is going to have these ups and downs |
| 430 | 01:10:41 --> 01:10:52 | each day, each session, every 15 minutes. It's running for liquidity that's the lifeblood of these marketplace. And so the sooner you realize that, the more |
| 431 | 01:10:52 --> 01:11:02 | opportunities are laid in your lab, because you're looking for patterns for the sake of patterns only. You're looking for some kind of indicator tell you to get |
| 432 | 01:11:02 --> 01:11:11 | into a trend that you have believed in because of moving averages, pointing a specific way or a MACD pointing us in a specific way in a histogram saying that |
| 433 | 01:11:11 --> 01:11:20 | it should go higher. you're placing all of your faith in in a religious capacity in something other than these simple little open high low and closed |
| 434 | 01:11:20 --> 01:11:32 | candlesticks when that's what tells you everything. So I think there's one more I want to take a look at, or look at gold, and I'm gonna close with that. Don't |
| 435 | 01:11:32 --> 01:11:33 | get used to this because I don't like gold. |
| 436 | 01:11:35 --> 01:11:36 | I don't wanna miss it here. |
| 437 | 01:11:42 --> 01:11:44 | All right, and let's go to a daily chart. |
| 438 | 01:11:46 --> 01:11:54 | And we talked about how I wanted to see it trade down into the lower portion of this inefficiency this morning. The sell Cibola here and then we just about got |
| 439 | 01:11:54 --> 01:12:03 | there almost so I failed there. Right? ICT failed everything else we're not going to pay attention to but this you didn't get it right there. Okay. But like |
| 440 | 01:12:03 --> 01:12:11 | I said, this, this market here is very fickle. It's, it's an event driven market, meaning that it's in my opinion, and I'm completely comfortable with |
| 441 | 01:12:11 --> 01:12:19 | everyone else not agreeing with this. But I think this is a market that should be traded less frequently than it is by most people in retail. Because it's |
| 442 | 01:12:19 --> 01:12:29 | highly manipulated. It's extremely manipulated. It's like the Swiss franc. It's like, the Japanese yen. I don't I don't like those markets. You know, I've been |
| 443 | 01:12:29 --> 01:12:43 | burned by him. They're highly manipulated by the central banks. And gold is absolutely our gold should not even be below $25,000. It should be so expensive |
| 444 | 01:12:43 --> 01:12:49 | right now, because there's none of it. You can't get your hands on it. Every central bank has been hoarding it the last two and a half years, three, three |
| 445 | 01:12:49 --> 01:12:57 | years. And they're using it to back all the future currencies that they're going to replace everything that's in existence right now. And it's including Bitcoin |
| 446 | 01:12:57 --> 01:13:05 | and everything else that you know as crypto. So anyway, I'm gonna close it here. Wish you all very pleasant evening. I had fun today, doing the live streams and |
| 447 | 01:13:05 --> 01:13:14 | this one here, too. I don't want to make a promise that I'll be with you on Friday. But I won't be with you on Twitter prior to Friday morning at fact that |
| 448 | 01:13:14 --> 01:13:23 | I can promise you so enjoy your Thursday. Be careful, be safe study. Don't risk too much. Don't force your setups, and I'll talk to you next time. |
| 449 | 01:13:23 --> 01:13:24 | Be safe |