ICT YT - 2023-09-27 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Market Review Commentary September 27 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-09-29 11:31
Outline
01:22 - Technical analysis of the Dollar index.
- ICT looks for price to run above buy side on daily chart, then withdraw and focus on inefficiency.
03:03 - Trading psychology and market analysis.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of focusing on long-term directional draws on liquidity, rather than getting caught up in short-term price movements.
- ICT encourages listeners to navigate problem areas and tackle them head-on, rather than avoiding them or getting discouraged.
- ICT outlines potential trading levels for Euro, Cable, and Dollar based on weekly and daily charts.
07:59 - Technical analysis and trading strategies in the foreign exchange market.
- ICT discusses the potential for lower prices and liquidity in the market, highlighting a weekly candle on March 13, 2023, as a possible target.
- ICT mentions a swing trade opportunity at a level mentioned in a previous jawboning session, with the potential for efficiency to drive price movement.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of using higher timeframes (daily/weekly) for analysis and setting trading goals, while still engaging in lower timeframe chart analysis for practice and backtesting.
- ICT encourages traders to focus on the logic of their trading decisions rather than relying on patterns or technical indicators, and to take losses as part of the learning process.
14:02 - Swing trading with daily charts and intraday price action.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of patience and stop loss management in swing trading, citing the need to allow the market to go into profit before being willing to see it go back against you.
- ICT encourages listeners to focus on higher time frame charts for better risk management and to learn from the inefficiencies of lower time frame charts.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of experience and patience in swing trading, warning against the dangers of impulsive decision-making and reckless trading.
- ICT advises traders to think like professional traders, using low leverage and avoiding intraday price action, to avoid creeping mistakes into their trading.
- ICT explains that a trader is only trading one contract and wants to trade with five, but will stop at $10,000.
- ICT advises the trader to watch intraday price action and enter on a swing trade when the price reaches a specific level, with a stoploss above the high of the day.
20:40 - Trading strategies and mindset.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of patience and proper risk management in trading, suggesting that traders should only enter trades when they have a daily chart setup.
- ICT believes that traders should be willing to make changes in their lives to accommodate their trading goals, even if it means starting with a lower timeframe chart and gradually moving up.
23:26 - Trading strategies and analysis.
- The speaker discusses a trading strategy involving selling short on a stop loss, with the goal of taking profits and managing risk.
- The speaker highlights the importance of anchoring the core entry and maintaining a stop loss to avoid getting stopped out or taking too many losing trades.
- ICT explains that he is projecting an implied dealing range between two low points, and he anticipates price will reach down to this level if it breaks the current low.
- ICT provides his fib settings, using 20% to 30% of the weekly range for TGIF measurements, and he suggests taking partial profits at this level.
29:10 - Trading Forex and predicting market movements.
- ICT predicts a black swan event and crash in Forex, advising against over-leveraging.
- Weighing the limitations and potential changes required for day trading.
- ICT favors GBP USD due to limited downside potential, with potential for large down candles if dollar rally accelerates.
34:16 - Trading in a balanced price range with potential for a bounce.
- ICT highlights a balanced price range on the daily chart, with bodies laid across the entire range.
- ICT would like to see at least half of the range stay open, as a potential sign of a potential downward move.
- Focus on weekly and daily timeframes for larger trades, as that's where institutional liquidity pools are located.
39:50 - Market manipulation and price movements.
- ICT: Price will either go up for buy side liquidity or drop for sell side liquidity, with no room for other functions.
- ICT: Markets are rigged and controlled, with no room for speculators to affect price movements.
42:32 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of tenacity and consistency in trading, suggesting that it takes time and effort to develop the necessary skills and mindset.
- ICT encourages listeners to be patient and persistent in their trading journey, acknowledging that there is no one-size-fits-all approach and that each person must find their own path to success.
- ICT provides step-by-step models for trading, including using mitigation blocks to identify potential entry points.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of having stops behind three PD arrays to minimize potential losses and avoid being in trades that have failed multiple entry points.
48:22 - Trading strategies and mindset.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of learning and journaling to improve trading skills and reduce fear of losing.
- ICT encourages traders to view stop losses as insurance, not as a source of fear, and to use realistic leverage to manage risk.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of self-reflection and journaling for personal growth and trading success.
- ICT encourages listeners to embrace discomfort and uncertainty in the market, and to focus on their own progress and learning.
- ICT discusses potential for Aussie dollar to reach down into gap in chart, with sellside below.
54:49 - Gold price action and quarterly shifts.
- ICT believes gold will continue to decline as long as the dollar is strong, with potential support levels at $1,550 and $1,450.
- ICT will not trade gold until it closes above $1,929 on a daily chart, indicating a potential change in the market's sentiment.
- ICT says he expects a quarterly shift in price action, with a potential move down from the current inefficiency zone.
- ICT analyzes the transcript of a livestream or recorded session, time-stamped for reference, to support his prediction.
01:00:14 - Technical analysis and market trends.
- ICT draws the volume of bounce on a weekly chart, taking into account balance and price range.
- ICT believes the market may retreat before reaching the low, citing imbalance and lack of capitulation.
01:03:13 - Technical analysis and market predictions.
- Trader analyzes chart patterns and identifies potential support and resistance levels.
- ICT believes the market can trade higher without changing the bearish tone, but a daily close above 4351.75 would be problematic.
- ICT highlights the importance of paying attention to PD arrays and their implications for market direction.
01:09:17 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- Analyzes volume imbalances and incorporates them into chart analysis for more accurate trading decisions.
- ICT expects NASDAQ to reach new highs before Thanksgiving, despite potential pullbacks.
- ICT teaches free openly publicly, profiting from selling his stuff.
01:15:50 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT believes NASDAQ will reach a time horizon of Thanksgiving, but will only do so if it closes above a specific volume and balance point on the weekly chart.
- ICT identifies three key resistance points that must be broken for NASDAQ to continue its upward trend, and failure to do so will signal a reversal in the market.
- ICT analyzes the daily and weekly charts to identify potential trading opportunities and gauge the magnitude of the move unfolding.
- ICT believes the price should not trade above a certain level on the daily chart, indicating a bearish outlook if it fails to do so.
- ICT shares insights on trading, including using demo accounts and live streams.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:01:22 --> 00:01:38 | ICT: Morning, folks. I'll be checking Twitter for a five by five if the audio is good if the volume is good, and you can see my weekly Dollar index chart. So I |
| 2 | 00:01:38 --> 00:01:41 | get someone to confirm it. That's good. I'll begin |
| 3 | 00:01:58 --> 00:02:13 | Thank you servicemen. Thank you, William. Alright, so we are looking at a screen that I don't need it hold on one second. Okay. All right. So this is going to be |
| 4 | 00:02:13 --> 00:02:25 | brief, because I want to get back to watching live charts with my youngest son here. So the weekly chart as you may have recalled, if your notes are being |
| 5 | 00:02:25 --> 00:02:36 | maintained well, during the month of August, we were looking for price to run above the buy side here on a daily chart, we'll drop down to that in a moment, |
| 6 | 00:02:37 --> 00:02:46 | then this buy side and eventually withdraw here. And I said, if we got animated above this level, here, our attention should be focused on this inefficiency |
| 7 | 00:02:46 --> 00:03:04 | here. So on your charts, you should have this highlighted, drawn out into the future and inheritance by sight, and this is all weekly level. So it's very, |
| 8 | 00:03:04 --> 00:03:16 | very high timeframe. It's very well, it's gonna take a little bit of time to get to these types of levels. So whenever I'm referring to weekly targets like this, |
| 9 | 00:03:17 --> 00:03:27 | invariably, someone that's new, or someone that isn't really interested in trying to learn it, just want to take something out of context. They'll say, I'm |
| 10 | 00:03:27 --> 00:03:38 | expecting that level to happen that very moment, or that trading day, and it's not that way at all. It's this to keep you focused on where my mind is the |
| 11 | 00:03:38 --> 00:03:49 | internal dialogue as I'm watching price each day each session, each time I watch price, present a setup. I can trade against this and you can once you get better |
| 12 | 00:03:49 --> 00:03:58 | versed in reading price action, but in the beginning, it should be something that you submit to as you only look for setups in these long term directional |
| 13 | 00:03:58 --> 00:04:09 | drawers on liquidity. That's the kind of like the primary function of how I teach in the beginning. It takes a little bit of time to get warmed up to the |
| 14 | 00:04:09 --> 00:04:18 | idea because it especially if you're looking at lower timeframe charts, and we'll drop down to the daily now it's easy to get lulled into thinking that that |
| 15 | 00:04:18 --> 00:04:28 | might not be where price is going. Or maybe you watch me do something or some of my students or someone else entirely different. That doesn't trade like I teach |
| 16 | 00:04:29 --> 00:04:41 | the idea of wanting to do something right now that may be opposed to these longer term draws on liquidity. may get you into trouble may hurt you and then |
| 17 | 00:04:41 --> 00:04:53 | regret remorse and then you'll feel the pain and agony of knowing that you did something that I've told you many times in long drawn out woodshed moments in |
| 18 | 00:04:53 --> 00:05:04 | these videos and in the Twitter spaces, which is primarily new trade psychology that day. that type of thing. It's better hearing it versus me trying to type it |
| 19 | 00:05:04 --> 00:05:14 | up into a book. And when you hear someone kind of like, beat it in your head to focus on these things don't focus so much on these other things, and how you |
| 20 | 00:05:14 --> 00:05:23 | supposed to be navigating these problem areas and how to discover what they are not to be afraid of them, but to tackle them. That's what the Twitter spaces are |
| 21 | 00:05:23 --> 00:05:35 | for. And they're in their raw, sometimes they're not used with language. It's so eloquent. But I don't promise eloquence, the idea of drawing towards the low |
| 22 | 00:05:35 --> 00:05:46 | end, but that weekly, sells on unbalanced by Saturn efficiency, which is here. And we're on the weekly chart, this is one single down, close candle. And now |
| 23 | 00:05:46 --> 00:06:02 | it's to buy sigh resides just above here on the week of November 21 2022. So that high comes in at one Oh 7.993. So we'll just call 108 as the long term |
| 24 | 00:06:02 --> 00:06:18 | buyside liquidity. We have a smaller one here with this high comes in at 107 19. Five, which is essentially in agreement with if it takes this high here on |
| 25 | 00:06:18 --> 00:06:28 | November 30, the week of November 30. We take that high. And chances are it's going to run and touch the bottom of that weekly sales on unbalanced buys on an |
| 26 | 00:06:28 --> 00:06:41 | efficiency. So these are the levels you should have on your chart from the high timeframe weekly and daily. And we'll drop into a Euro chart real quick. satisfy |
| 27 | 00:06:41 --> 00:06:59 | the old FX group. Alright, so I hate when it does this. Drop back up until weekly. Alright, so we've been watching the euro and cable and dollar. And I |
| 28 | 00:06:59 --> 00:07:08 | know some of you want me to drop into these lower timeframe charts because you want to ask your funding account challenges and stuff. But I've been telling you |
| 29 | 00:07:08 --> 00:07:22 | where the markets been going on the daily chart and the weekly chart. And it might be one of those things where you can see it now panning out like I |
| 30 | 00:07:22 --> 00:07:33 | outlined and you're regretting that you didn't do something with the information and or worked with this as your your bias looking for setups. Don't beat |
| 31 | 00:07:33 --> 00:07:43 | yourself up. Don't vent on social media to me about why you didn't listen or anything like that. That's the worst thing to do. Don't complain in your little |
| 32 | 00:07:43 --> 00:07:55 | circles on Discord or telegram channels or other Twitter, communities, whatever. By doing that you're reinforcing bad habits and you're reinforcing toxic |
| 33 | 00:07:55 --> 00:08:02 | thinking. Versus if you didn't do anything with this information. If you weren't looking for shorts, like we were outlining, that would be the best case |
| 34 | 00:08:02 --> 00:08:11 | scenario, because dollars bullish euros should be bearish. The POUND DOLLAR should be bearish. There was news last name all the way up for Aussie dollar, I |
| 35 | 00:08:11 --> 00:08:22 | completely forgot to mention it. I don't usually bring it up. But I'm looking at that one next. But without having looked. I don't know. But Aussie dollar should |
| 36 | 00:08:22 --> 00:08:30 | have went lower. I don't know if it did. But I know it had some news like in the evening time, my local time. So I'll take a look at that in a moment. But we're |
| 37 | 00:08:30 --> 00:08:40 | gonna go through Euro first than POUND DOLLAR than Aussie dollar. I'll look at Gold real quick. And then we'll go into the index futures. And then I'll wrap it |
| 38 | 00:08:40 --> 00:08:50 | up because I gotta get busy with my youngest son here. So anyway, we were looking at this draw on liquidity here. I mentioned how this inefficiency would |
| 39 | 00:08:50 --> 00:08:58 | act as an inversion of a gap that's not needed now. But go back. Don't take my word for anything I'm saying here. Go back and look at the the analysis that I |
| 40 | 00:08:58 --> 00:09:09 | gave in Twitter spaces talking about it in the live streams that I've talked about these things in the video commentaries that I've posted. Incidentally, I |
| 41 | 00:09:09 --> 00:09:19 | also have this in my notes here. I saw a tweet. Someone mentioned that there was another tweet, I'm sorry, I get a lot of comments in my videos. And somebody |
| 42 | 00:09:19 --> 00:09:32 | mentioned a link to me that is a YouTube video for my 2023 playlist. But I was unable to put it in the playlist. I don't know how I messed that up. But if |
| 43 | 00:09:32 --> 00:09:40 | you're listening or if you know that there should be a video that's not in the 2023 mentorship playlist. send that link to me on Twitter so that way I can make |
| 44 | 00:09:40 --> 00:09:48 | sure it's in the playlist. I appreciate that. But we were looking for lower prices drawl and liquidity here and I said if we get animated below this, we |
| 45 | 00:09:48 --> 00:09:59 | will be moving over to these lows here. So the first ones here and that's what we're having highlighted with this weekly candle on the week of March 13 2023. |
| 46 | 00:10:00 --> 00:10:10 | that low comes in at 10316 in two pipettes so we will be expecting the price to drop eventually down into that. I'm not saying that it's going to happen today |
| 47 | 00:10:10 --> 00:10:20 | it could happen sometime the rest of this week it just gives you a framework to aim for so that way you're not getting caught up in the near the excitement of |
| 48 | 00:10:20 --> 00:10:33 | lower timeframe charts and completely forgetting that this is where the likely algorithm is pulling price to drag down to the daily chart real quick and no not |
| 49 | 00:10:33 --> 00:10:46 | dropping any lower than the daily chart. You don't need that. Yes, we do at your home the back. Alright, so there is where I believe we're gonna draw to it's |
| 50 | 00:10:46 --> 00:10:55 | enough to get something out of it should give you another opportunity today or going into Friday. We talked about this level here and consequent encouragement, |
| 51 | 00:10:55 --> 00:11:03 | look at the bodies. Go back and listen to all that jawboning session. We tanked here create another cell Senate balanced by Senate efficiency on this candle |
| 52 | 00:11:03 --> 00:11:05 | here on September 5. |
| 53 | 00:11:07 --> 00:11:16 | So we traded up into that that right there is a swing trade. For those of you that don't have the ability to sit and watch day trades, you don't want to trade |
| 54 | 00:11:16 --> 00:11:24 | five minute chart, you don't want to trade, you know anything less than a daily timeframe. Because you have a work schedule or you're just a working class here, |
| 55 | 00:11:24 --> 00:11:34 | you're running a business, you're in school, you have to sleep, your life doesn't allow you to do these types of lower intraday setups. The formations in |
| 56 | 00:11:34 --> 00:11:42 | price action on the daily chart are doing the same things that you see me and my students trading with one minute charts and 32nd charts and 15 second charts and |
| 57 | 00:11:42 --> 00:11:52 | five second charts and one second charts. Price is fractal, meaning that everything that I use to get into a timeframe of any timeframe of any market is |
| 58 | 00:11:52 --> 00:12:05 | applicable for any timeframe that you can use that fits your specific model. If these lower timeframe charts are moving too fast, and I say that in a manner |
| 59 | 00:12:05 --> 00:12:18 | that is tongue in cheek, meaning that they're not going any faster than daily charts moving. See, you're afraid you're you're building this fear that these |
| 60 | 00:12:18 --> 00:12:30 | markets are moving supersonic in the lower timeframes, when they're moving at the same exact pace. The problem is, is you're over leveraging many times on |
| 61 | 00:12:30 --> 00:12:40 | these lower timeframes versus just simply doing the least in terms of leverage. And using the experience that multiple timeframe entries on lower timeframe |
| 62 | 00:12:40 --> 00:12:50 | charts can provide you it just it gives you lots of opportunity to practice or back test. But never losing sight of these higher timeframe charts. Because this |
| 63 | 00:12:50 --> 00:13:01 | is where this is where the real draw by institutional investors, traders, large firms, they're doing their analysis on the weekly and daily that's why I've been |
| 64 | 00:13:01 --> 00:13:11 | talking to you in these timeframes. Because your mindset needs to be anchored on these timeframes predominantly. And then using the information that's derived |
| 65 | 00:13:11 --> 00:13:20 | from these timeframes then engaging in being a mechanic with price action in the lower timeframe charts with this logic in mind. If you do those types of things, |
| 66 | 00:13:21 --> 00:13:30 | your win rate will increase, you will still suffer losing trades, I'm not trying to promote the idea that you can trade perfectly. I take losses, you've seen |
| 67 | 00:13:30 --> 00:13:38 | them, you see me take them, you see me work out of them, you see me reverse on them after being stopped out even being right or wrong. It doesn't change the |
| 68 | 00:13:38 --> 00:13:49 | model. It doesn't remove the efficacy of it. It just makes the reality of making and losing money what it is. And if you have your logic as to what you're aiming |
| 69 | 00:13:49 --> 00:14:00 | for what you're trying to frame the trades on. Not for pattern sake. Okay? Not for team mentality sake. Meaning, you know, supply and demand Elliott, wave |
| 70 | 00:14:00 --> 00:14:08 | white cough, you know, whatever. And by the way, Steve Morrow I didn't talk to that stuff from him. All his stuff is from my 1996 notes. So stop leaving |
| 71 | 00:14:08 --> 00:14:15 | comments in my video channel. Steve Morrow was welcome to come out here and do whatever he thinks he can do live. And I'll work circles around him too. Yes, |
| 72 | 00:14:15 --> 00:14:26 | that was an ego Mark knowing and that's me beating my chest. He's a student. That's the way it is. This right here. That inefficiency trading rate into that, |
| 73 | 00:14:26 --> 00:14:35 | that is a swing setup. That's a swing trade. And what would you be aiming for, you'd be aiming for the run below that low here and longer term, you would leave |
| 74 | 00:14:35 --> 00:14:45 | your stop loss above this high. This is what makes long term swing trading very difficult because you have to allow the market to go into profit and then be |
| 75 | 00:14:45 --> 00:14:54 | willing to see it go back against you. So as a long term swing trader, for those that are listening, if you want to have some notes on this. I'll talk more about |
| 76 | 00:14:54 --> 00:15:04 | it in my books and you can go back and look at my YouTube core content lessons around swing trading. In swing trading, you want to try to build in a position |
| 77 | 00:15:04 --> 00:15:13 | slow. And when it gets to a higher Time Frame, discount, if you're short, like what we're seeing here, this is where you would take some of the short off, |
| 78 | 00:15:14 --> 00:15:24 | waiting for it to potentially give you another reversal. So you can add it back. And that would be inside of this area right in here. There's your fair value |
| 79 | 00:15:24 --> 00:15:34 | gap. And inside that fair value gap, your stock would be above here, never moving it, you cannot move it, you have to leave it there. And it's scary. |
| 80 | 00:15:35 --> 00:15:43 | That's why swing trading, you think that you're avoiding risk by not trying to get in these lower timeframe charts, when that's the best place for you to |
| 81 | 00:15:43 --> 00:15:54 | learn. Because it'll teach you stop place management. It'll take, it'll teach you patience, it'll teach you no fear of running out of setups, it'll teach you |
| 82 | 00:15:54 --> 00:16:08 | that your model works. It'll give you more in the trenches experience of reading price, real time than any other timeframe. But in swing trading, if you're |
| 83 | 00:16:08 --> 00:16:20 | trading on a daily chart, you cannot make a move of moving that stop loss to break even trailing it to lock into a profitable exit, all you're doing is |
| 84 | 00:16:20 --> 00:16:30 | ensuring that you're gonna get stopped out much early before your objective is met. Because there's a lot of give and take on a daily timeframe. Unless that |
| 85 | 00:16:30 --> 00:16:37 | you have timed your your entry, which you're not going to do this in the beginning, it's going to take you years, okay, so when you hear me talk about, |
| 86 | 00:16:37 --> 00:16:44 | it's gonna take you years to get good at this. Getting good at it is not profitable. I've already said that you can be profitable rather quickly if you |
| 87 | 00:16:44 --> 00:16:55 | do the right things and study the right way. But to be very good at it, where you can time, the very explosive type of price action runs that start right from |
| 88 | 00:16:55 --> 00:17:06 | when you try to get in it. That takes years of getting experience to do that. So in the beginning, you have to give yourself the permission and the time to build |
| 89 | 00:17:06 --> 00:17:14 | up your experience. So that way, you're not holding yourself to a level of expectation that's unrealistic or unreasonable. And then when you don't hit it, |
| 90 | 00:17:15 --> 00:17:22 | you start doing things recklessly over trading over leveraging trading outside of your model, because you're impulsive, you just want to fix the mistake you |
| 91 | 00:17:22 --> 00:17:29 | just made, you want to get back that loss that you just took, you want to fix the drawdown, all these types of things. That's how it creeps into your trading. |
| 92 | 00:17:30 --> 00:17:40 | So on swing trading, in this instance, here, if you're watching price, you would see this, this fair value gap here on the week of September 5. Knowing that it |
| 93 | 00:17:40 --> 00:17:49 | trades up into that, that's a setup, you can get short there as a trader that doesn't use intraday price action, the way you would do this is on this. Let me |
| 94 | 00:17:49 --> 00:18:02 | see if I can zoom in, I apologize, it should have been a little bit more. Okay, here, now, also trading on a daily chart like this, that means your leverage is |
| 95 | 00:18:02 --> 00:18:11 | going to be extremely low. I know you want to trade with whatever the maximum these funded account challenges in firm companies will offer you. But you got to |
| 96 | 00:18:11 --> 00:18:21 | start thinking like that. Okay, you got to stop thinking like that. Because if you've been watching my son, his tops that express funded account, I think I |
| 97 | 00:18:21 --> 00:18:33 | said that correctly, if I didn't apologize. He's only trading one contract. And now he's being offered the ability to trade with five, he won't be trading with |
| 98 | 00:18:33 --> 00:18:41 | five. If he's going to stay at the woodshed with me, he's just going to do one contract through the duration until he gets to $10,000. And then he's done. |
| 99 | 00:18:43 --> 00:18:56 | Trading on a daily chart, you want to trade with the leverage, lowest leverage that will allow you and to afford you the ability to trade with a great idea of |
| 100 | 00:18:56 --> 00:19:08 | selling this and now you're going to sell weakness as a swing trader. If you can't watch intraday price action, that means you absolutely must one of two |
| 101 | 00:19:08 --> 00:19:18 | things either get up during the day and look at London and wait for a run that would be in ours in this area here when it was trading up into this price point |
| 102 | 00:19:18 --> 00:19:24 | here. Now there's somebody who may be watching us for the first time this is all Hindsight is all hindsight. No, it's not. We talked about these things before it |
| 103 | 00:19:24 --> 00:19:32 | even happened. We talked about price being here. We talked about the price going down here and it's happening on your daily charts. I'm not bending time and |
| 104 | 00:19:32 --> 00:19:40 | space. I'm literally telling you the future using the concepts that I've laid in your hands for free. But you have to do one of two things you have to get up on |
| 105 | 00:19:40 --> 00:19:54 | the day that you want to try to enter on your swing trade which would be here, here or here any one of those days. And you have to allow for a stoploss that's |
| 106 | 00:19:54 --> 00:20:07 | above this high right there because your swing trading and you would sell Got a run below this days, and we're on the daily chart. Yeah, make sure September 12. |
| 107 | 00:20:07 --> 00:20:18 | Wherever that opening prices, you can use the settlement price here on trading view, you can use, in my opinion, I would be using the midnight opening price in |
| 108 | 00:20:18 --> 00:20:30 | New York local time. If it trades below that, you'd be going selling short, you would sell weakness as it breaks away from that inefficiency and goes below this |
| 109 | 00:20:30 --> 00:20:41 | candle. So your, your trading wouldn't really begin until this day here. Because the open on this candle is down here, which makes no sense, right? Because |
| 110 | 00:20:41 --> 00:20:51 | you're too far away from the fair value guy. This is the first day that sets you up as a non intraday non Minute, second, 15 minute, one hour, four hour, |
| 111 | 00:20:51 --> 00:20:53 | anything less than a daily chart, |
| 112 | 00:20:53 --> 00:21:00 | you can't enter on. Because your life is what it is. And there's no shame in that doesn't mean you can't make money, it just means you're going to trade with |
| 113 | 00:21:00 --> 00:21:09 | a whole lot more patients required a whole lot less, less leverage, and your stop losses are going to be absolutely enormous compared to what you see me |
| 114 | 00:21:09 --> 00:21:21 | using Are you willing to compromise. If it's all about making money, and making ends meet and moving towards a better lifestyle through another source of income |
| 115 | 00:21:21 --> 00:21:29 | that's potentially available to you but not guaranteed to anyone. That means that it won't matter that this is the way you're gonna have to do it. But the |
| 116 | 00:21:29 --> 00:21:37 | logic is still the same. Because if this was a five minute chart, or this is a 15 second chart, and this was the fair value gap, I would tell you that the stop |
| 117 | 00:21:37 --> 00:21:47 | loss needs to be above here anyway. Because this is the candle that makes what the inefficiency. So your stop loss has to be above here. Why can't trade that |
| 118 | 00:21:47 --> 00:21:56 | way? Okay, trade something else, don't use my logic, go out there and lose money. Go do whatever you want to do. But if you're asking me how to teach it to |
| 119 | 00:21:56 --> 00:22:04 | you, and how it should be done, that's not in an intraday capacity. This is what you're going to do. Because all you need to know is whatever this opening price |
| 120 | 00:22:04 --> 00:22:16 | is here, or whatever the opening price is, at midnight that day. And the next trading day here, wait until after 9pm the next day. Why because now you have |
| 121 | 00:22:16 --> 00:22:25 | Asian session in place. If it trades below that. You're short, your stock goes above here, whatever the leverage is, is required to allow you to do that and |
| 122 | 00:22:25 --> 00:22:36 | not risk more than whatever you're comfortable with. Never more than 1%. That's a big stop loss, blah, blah, blah. But this is a big run down here. Think you |
| 123 | 00:22:36 --> 00:22:44 | have to start somewhere. If you can't start an intraday charts. And you can only operate NIS until you make life changes. Because you might have to do like if |
| 124 | 00:22:44 --> 00:22:53 | you want to be a trader, if you really want to be a trader, and you can find your way of making consistently accurate setups. Even in this manner, you will |
| 125 | 00:22:53 --> 00:23:02 | make changes to allow you to trade in a lower timeframe chart, guaranteed no one's going to say no, I don't want to make $1,000 a day, when I'm stuck making |
| 126 | 00:23:02 --> 00:23:12 | $2,000 over the course of eight weeks, four weeks, or whatever it is, believe me money talks, bullshit walks you will absolutely make changes your life, you'll |
| 127 | 00:23:12 --> 00:23:18 | convince your spouse when they start seeing the money. That's the way it works. Nobody's gonna believe you in the beginning, when you start showing the receipts |
| 128 | 00:23:18 --> 00:23:26 | and the money there all of a sudden, they're they're interested in what you have to say that but in the beginning you have that so you have to keep quiet about |
| 129 | 00:23:26 --> 00:23:36 | what you're doing. Don't tell you your left hand what your right hand is doing. But once this setup here forms in this day here you'd be selling short one |
| 130 | 00:23:36 --> 00:23:45 | weakness guess what that means it means you can sell short on a stop. That means you're putting a stop loss that would put you in the trade. It's not stopping |
| 131 | 00:23:45 --> 00:23:57 | that with a loss. It's a sell stop at this candles or that day's opening price. Preferably midnight, I use midnight New York local time. I like that. So as long |
| 132 | 00:23:57 --> 00:24:06 | as price in the next day was above it here who cares? You're not interested in it and you're sleeping, you're at work, you're at school, you're doing whatever |
| 133 | 00:24:07 --> 00:24:17 | at some point it's going to trade below that that level here in that stock wonder will become a market order to sell short and then your open order for |
| 134 | 00:24:17 --> 00:24:30 | shorts needs to be protected with a stop loss above here this will be a first partial you can put multiple trades on put some of your thinking hotkey and do |
| 135 | 00:24:30 --> 00:24:40 | sighs I can tell you right you can't put a lot of size on it. But you can put something on here we can take a partial wall down here you take off one of them. |
| 136 | 00:24:42 --> 00:24:52 | Then because we see this big run down into this low it creates a potential inefficiency which is confirmed when this candle right here on the September 5. |
| 137 | 00:24:53 --> 00:25:10 | Once it closes that high between this candle is high right here. That candles high I in that candles low, we have an inefficiency. So you can take an add |
| 138 | 00:25:11 --> 00:25:19 | inside this inefficiency, whatever you took off as a partial nine here, you can add it back when it trades up into here. But look at this heat right here, it |
| 139 | 00:25:19 --> 00:25:29 | doesn't matter, you're anchored with your core entry up here. And your stop still remains right there. Can you swing trade with that logic, because if you |
| 140 | 00:25:29 --> 00:25:38 | can't, then swing trading is not going to work for you, I'm just going to save you a whole lot of time. That is how it is. If you do anything apart from that, |
| 141 | 00:25:39 --> 00:25:47 | you're gonna get stopped out a lot, you're going to take more losing trades, you're gonna have a lot of failed launches with your setups, and you're going to |
| 142 | 00:25:47 --> 00:25:55 | be really impatient. And all of those things, were going to coalesce into a tapestry that will keep you from being profitable, and it'll just make you want |
| 143 | 00:25:55 --> 00:26:04 | to quit, you'll either want to do something else, or you'll want to do nothing at all with the marketplace. And that's the reality. I'm not trying to sugarcoat |
| 144 | 00:26:04 --> 00:26:13 | it for any of you. That's just the way it is. And there it is. But you can add it back here. And then once we break below here, you can take another partial, |
| 145 | 00:26:13 --> 00:26:25 | or between this low and the next level down here. That would be again, that weekly level here between this low in this low where do you take partials at |
| 146 | 00:26:25 --> 00:26:34 | ICT? Whenever I see two targets like this, I'd like to take that in divided into quarters. That's not quarters theory. Okay, so that tone people in your comment |
| 147 | 00:26:34 --> 00:26:42 | section are trying to comment in mind. Nonsense saying I'm teaching quarters theory, quarters theory has absolutely nothing to do absolutely nothing to do |
| 148 | 00:26:42 --> 00:26:52 | what I'm doing. I'm projecting an implied dealing range. That means I'm anticipating that this level break and read down here for the people that just |
| 149 | 00:26:52 --> 00:27:00 | watched this for the first time, go back and look at what's already on his YouTube channel. I already said price was going down here. A month and a half |
| 150 | 00:27:00 --> 00:27:07 | ago, I told you, this is where it's going. That's not bragging. I'm reminding folks that take things out of context because they don't take notes. They don't |
| 151 | 00:27:07 --> 00:27:16 | listen, and they want to have selective hearing. We have not been bullish on Euro we have not been bullish on cable, POUND DOLLAR. We've been bullish on |
| 152 | 00:27:16 --> 00:27:25 | dollar. We've been bearish on indices after it ran a specific high when we get to that I'll talk to us about as well. But then this low and this low here. If |
| 153 | 00:27:25 --> 00:27:35 | you take your fib See, I don't use fib like everybody else. Okay, and these guys run around with this retail logic like to come around say it doesn't fit, but |
| 154 | 00:27:35 --> 00:27:37 | I'm getting the daily highs and lows and my trades are you. |
| 155 | 00:27:45 --> 00:27:52 | Alright, so here is let me put this back up here. If there's something you'd like to ask me all the time, what's, what's your fib settings, take a screenshot |
| 156 | 00:27:52 --> 00:28:08 | of that. Again, as a reminder, I changed these two here. If I want to do like TGIF measurements, I'll do the 25. I'll change that to 0.20 because that'll give |
| 157 | 00:28:08 --> 00:28:20 | me the 20%. And the 30% is this one here. So I use these two boxes here for TGIF. But I have to change the 25 to 20. So it's 20% to 30% of the weekly range, |
| 158 | 00:28:20 --> 00:28:30 | which is TGIF, a retracement idea. And you can watch the video I made on that on this YouTube channel. That's all there for free. So in the rest of these are all |
| 159 | 00:28:30 --> 00:28:40 | just the standard deviations that I use. So with that in mind between this low here, in this low down here, this as prices up here, if it breaks this low, go |
| 160 | 00:28:40 --> 00:28:47 | back and listen to it, as I say these things, then it gets animated, that means it's going to really start to move lower, then this is where you're going to be |
| 161 | 00:28:47 --> 00:28:56 | looking for an overall down here to get overzealous, those were my words verbatim. If this is an implied dealing range, it means the price hasn't been |
| 162 | 00:28:56 --> 00:29:05 | there yet. hasn't gone down there yet. So if I'm implying that price can reach down here, that's what my analysis is suggesting to the viewers that watch my |
| 163 | 00:29:05 --> 00:29:14 | commentary. So if that's the case, then where can I take partials? If I have enough to take a partial and full disclosure, I had not been trading Forex for |
| 164 | 00:29:14 --> 00:29:23 | years. I've been in predominantly only index futures. Why are you doing it ICT because I think we're gonna see a black swan event, and there's going to be a |
| 165 | 00:29:23 --> 00:29:31 | decoupling and I think there's gonna be a crash that's going to happen really fast. And I don't want to be in there. So there you go for disclaimer, sleep and |
| 166 | 00:29:31 --> 00:29:40 | risk. Now you know why I'm not trading Forex. So that's why you don't want to be over leveraging as well. So from this low, that low here, I've broken that up |
| 167 | 00:29:40 --> 00:29:52 | into four equal parts, which is a wonderful area to take what a partial here if it reaches it. Partial if it goes halfway, another partial here. So right now |
| 168 | 00:29:52 --> 00:30:09 | you should be about 75% booked in profit from anything that you've been short from up here when we were up here. How many handles I mean, how many pips is |
| 169 | 00:30:09 --> 00:30:20 | that lost track of what we're talking about here? It's a lot in it, it's 400 plus four under handles. We're not talking about little micro moves. Okay, we're |
| 170 | 00:30:20 --> 00:30:28 | not talking about ticks and little PIP moves over leveraging with 40 contracts and losing on your live stream from everybody, we're not talking about real |
| 171 | 00:30:28 --> 00:30:39 | significant price moves. Even if you have to go through a whole lot of acrobatics and have wide stops, if you can catch 250 300 handle runs, those |
| 172 | 00:30:39 --> 00:30:49 | things add up over the course of whatever amount of time is required for you to decide if it's worth it for you to invest more time, more money, more life |
| 173 | 00:30:49 --> 00:30:59 | changing decisions where you have to change what you're doing, maybe it requires you to stop working the job that you're working. If you want to pursue this, it |
| 174 | 00:30:59 --> 00:31:08 | may require you to change your student's schedule to take classes on days that at least make it available for you to start trading once or twice a week with |
| 175 | 00:31:08 --> 00:31:16 | intraday price data. I'm not suggesting or trying to convince any of you to be a day trader, on this saying that these are some of the things you have to weigh |
| 176 | 00:31:16 --> 00:31:24 | out if you're going to be a speculator in these markets, because in the beginning, everybody has their limitations. And over time, you're gonna have to |
| 177 | 00:31:24 --> 00:31:31 | determine whether or not if it's worth it for you to make significant changes. And if you have a spouse or significant other, they're not going to understand |
| 178 | 00:31:31 --> 00:31:39 | it. So you have to at least have something that come to the discussion table and say, here's what I've been able to do with just this. Do you believe it's |
| 179 | 00:31:39 --> 00:31:47 | worthwhile for us to make an attempt to try to make some life changes, it may be uncomfortable, it may require you to make less money doing whatever you're |
| 180 | 00:31:47 --> 00:31:58 | doing, be to be what to pursue this, if this is what your hearts and maybe you want to be a trader. Your your results will will dictate the pace at which in |
| 181 | 00:31:58 --> 00:32:06 | the timing and when you want to make those changes, if at all. Obviously, if you can't prove that you can be successful with the content, whether it be mine or |
| 182 | 00:32:06 --> 00:32:15 | someone else's. Then it goes without saying that you got to stay where you're at and keep the bills getting paid. So long story short, we're looking for lower |
| 183 | 00:32:15 --> 00:32:29 | prices down here in the here and if it blow off move occurs down here. Okay, so this low, they're at 104 82. So there you go. That's what we're looking at for |
| 184 | 00:32:29 --> 00:32:37 | Euro. Let's go back up to a weekly chart. If you like what I'm talking about, this is tickling your ears, giving you everything you've been looking for. |
| 185 | 00:32:39 --> 00:32:51 | Seeing the future being foretold beforehand, weeks and months before it happens. Take a second give this livestream a thumbs up, I take that as a thank you, it |
| 186 | 00:32:51 --> 00:33:00 | cost you nothing, it's nothing coming out of your pocket. I promise it won't hurt your ego and pride, you'll be thankful that you've learned. So we are on a |
| 187 | 00:33:00 --> 00:33:21 | weekly chart and I want to see GBP USD always use Forex dot coms data. And Pound has a lot of distance before it gets down to the sell side. So I favor I favor |
| 188 | 00:33:21 --> 00:33:35 | the pound. Because years aren't done a whole lot of movement. If we see a acceleration to the dollar rally, I think that we'll see very large down close |
| 189 | 00:33:35 --> 00:33:46 | candles in large range expansion days on cable. And we would be looking for this low down here. There really isn't any inefficiency apart from what we're trading |
| 190 | 00:33:46 --> 00:33:59 | in right now. Now, I'll show you what I mean by that. Right here to here. If you have not put that on your chart, it should be on there. Now. That's where we're |
| 191 | 00:33:59 --> 00:34:19 | trading it. Now because we're in a deep discount, relative to the higher here. And the low down here. This is where price is trading at present. Look at this |
| 192 | 00:34:19 --> 00:34:26 | range right here. Say this right here. This is a balanced price range all of this in here. I'm going to highlight it so that we can see exactly what I'm |
| 193 | 00:34:26 --> 00:34:40 | referring to. From here to hear all of this price action. That is a balanced price range, because price has been offered up and down. And then it left it |
| 194 | 00:34:42 --> 00:34:56 | where is price trading essentially at right now. Here for this range, right? Because it's a range that has bodies. It's not inefficient. So and in an |
| 195 | 00:34:56 --> 00:35:05 | inefficient range, which is a gap or inefficiency The midpoint is consequent encouragement, whenever there is a range that has the bodies that are laid |
| 196 | 00:35:05 --> 00:35:20 | across the entire range, whether it be an order block, or a trading range like this is range is balanced. So a midpoint of that is equilibrium. So we would |
| 197 | 00:35:20 --> 00:35:34 | measure it like this. Low to high. And we're just almost touching all the equilibrium there. And we're inside of this fair Vega. So what does that mean? |
| 198 | 00:35:34 --> 00:35:39 | What do we do with that information? Let me take this out these settings on right now. |
| 199 | 00:35:45 --> 00:35:54 | We can see it potentially bounce. I'm not saying it's gonna go here all the here. But because we traded into this inefficiency, there hasn't been an |
| 200 | 00:35:54 --> 00:36:06 | inefficiency at all on here. See that. There's no inefficiency in any of that. This is the only one that exists in the price run. From this low, all the way up |
| 201 | 00:36:06 --> 00:36:19 | to here. This is the only one and we're trading in it right now. So we could see it, pause. pullback up into this inefficiency, I'd like to see if it does, if it |
| 202 | 00:36:19 --> 00:36:32 | does drag up into this one here, between this candles low. In this weekly high. If it were to trade up into that, I would like to see some of that stay open. So |
| 203 | 00:36:32 --> 00:36:40 | if for whatever reason starts to trade higher, going into the end of the week, or going into the next week, I would like to see this portion stay open, we |
| 204 | 00:36:40 --> 00:36:50 | highlighted for you. Be careful, because this week is still trading. And this high could be taken out if it wants to retrace from time I'm talking right now, |
| 205 | 00:36:50 --> 00:37:03 | to Friday's close. So the highest it's being highlighted to make the low this gap could change. But you're always watching price. So you have to be aware of |
| 206 | 00:37:03 --> 00:37:10 | all that. But I'd like to see at least half of it which of you were here. So I bought |
| 207 | 00:37:17 --> 00:37:29 | like this portion of it there, I would not want to see price trade up into that on a closing basis on any daily chart at all. If it does that and stays open |
| 208 | 00:37:29 --> 00:37:36 | like this, my mindset is we're going down here. We're going down this |
| 209 | 00:37:44 --> 00:37:55 | that level down here. So longer term, as I mentioned, you know, a month ago that I mindset was the quarterly shift was bearish. We wanted to see higher prices |
| 210 | 00:37:55 --> 00:38:12 | for dollar, which is what risk off risk off means that equities, stocks, gold index futures and forex will go where down. You have to you have to have this in |
| 211 | 00:38:12 --> 00:38:18 | the beginning, if you're brand new, if you don't know what you're doing. If you don't have to find bias, if you don't know what you're doing in terms of picking |
| 212 | 00:38:18 --> 00:38:26 | a direction that makes sense for your trades that has the highest degree of probability behind it on a higher timeframe, it doesn't guarantee that you're |
| 213 | 00:38:26 --> 00:38:35 | gonna be profitable on every single trade, just because you're trading this macro in mind. Macro in the sense that it's the macro timeframe, not a macro. |
| 214 | 00:38:35 --> 00:38:44 | That's a time oriented script, algorithmically. It's not what I'm referring to. But you have to submit yourself to an idea that is larger than the timeframe |
| 215 | 00:38:44 --> 00:38:58 | you're trading. Because if you do that, you're using a time element in your trading. That is it's rooted in and founded on a larger timeframe bias that |
| 216 | 00:38:58 --> 00:39:15 | large institutions are actually going to promote being the weekly to daily chart. Your large firms, large lending institutions banks. There their interest |
| 217 | 00:39:15 --> 00:39:24 | in the marketplace are not looking at timeframes that we do lots of entries and exits on. They're looking at weekly, monthly and daily timeframes, because |
| 218 | 00:39:25 --> 00:39:32 | that's where the pools of liquidity are going to be located. That's where the inefficiencies are going to be located, which is the reason why I'm teaching you |
| 219 | 00:39:32 --> 00:39:39 | this year to focus on these two timeframes. Even though you're kicking and screaming, wanting me to go down to the lower timeframes, to show you these |
| 220 | 00:39:39 --> 00:39:47 | forex pairs, you don't need that just use what I'm teaching you with the index futures because it's the same thing that I'm applying to that market. You're |
| 221 | 00:39:47 --> 00:39:56 | going to do the same things on these currency pairs. It's the same, it's the same thing, folks. Price is going to go up for buy side liquidity, or it's going |
| 222 | 00:39:56 --> 00:40:05 | to go up to trade into and reprice to in an inefficiency. price is either going to drop down for sell stock or sell side liquidity, or it's going down the |
| 223 | 00:40:05 --> 00:40:14 | reprice to an inefficiency below price action. That's the only two functions that price does anything apart from that is going to be the consolidation |
| 224 | 00:40:14 --> 00:40:24 | waiting for sentiment to build up. And then markets will run to where the majority of the liquidity would be. So it's advantageous for smart money to pair |
| 225 | 00:40:24 --> 00:40:32 | with them. It's all rigged. It's all premeditated. It's all designed. anything apart from those three things is manual intervention, that means that the real |
| 226 | 00:40:32 --> 00:40:43 | underlying risk, that means that no one knows what's going to happen at that moment, you have a black swan event, an unexpected price reaction, I'll say it |
| 227 | 00:40:43 --> 00:40:52 | with my tongue in cheek when a news event comes in or market driver releases data, and it should cause the dollar to go down, but the dollar goes up, like |
| 228 | 00:40:52 --> 00:41:00 | full force, that's manual intervention. But they'll always after the fact say it was all the discount that was already priced in the move. But they didn't say |
| 229 | 00:41:00 --> 00:41:08 | that beforehand. They're always going to have something to say after the fact that keep you from seeing that these markets are absolutely 100% controlled. |
| 230 | 00:41:08 --> 00:41:20 | They're rigged countries will not put their existence in their financial stability in the hands of speculators. I'm sorry, I know George Soros gets |
| 231 | 00:41:20 --> 00:41:30 | blamed for oh, he took he single handedly took down the path. No, he didn't. He's the face. He's the face of something. So it takes your eyes away from the |
| 232 | 00:41:30 --> 00:41:39 | fact that these are absolutely 100%. Marionette puppets. They're strings on them. And they dance whenever they want them to. And I'm just teaching you where |
| 233 | 00:41:39 --> 00:41:50 | the strings are attached. And where that marionette is going to place its next foot. That's all I'm showing you. Okay, so dropped down to a daily chart with |
| 234 | 00:41:50 --> 00:42:05 | this insight and mine. Man, I wish I had this stuff when I was coming up. Awesome. Someone sit down here and give it to you for free. No upsell common, no |
| 235 | 00:42:05 --> 00:42:15 | coupon codes near future mentorship, buy me this buy me that. Alright, so we are looking at a daily chart here. And you can see how prices has absolutely been |
| 236 | 00:42:15 --> 00:42:23 | stunning, beautiful delivery in the coming days it's been down. And then remember, we're in this inefficiency on the weekly chart. So it would be |
| 237 | 00:42:23 --> 00:42:34 | completely reasonable for it to try to make an attempt to retrace a little bit. I'm not suggesting that it should or that it has to. I'm just saying, How do I |
| 238 | 00:42:34 --> 00:42:44 | know for the question a lot? How do I know when I'm in a trade that it might start to potentially retrace? against me? Not necessarily reverse. But how can I |
| 239 | 00:42:44 --> 00:42:56 | avoid having to sit through a larger retracement that I'm comfortable with? Well, you can be in partials by now. That way, you have something scaled out in |
| 240 | 00:42:56 --> 00:43:06 | the event that I'm wrong in the event that you're wrong by holding for lower if you're short, you want to always try to find a way to fund your account |
| 241 | 00:43:06 --> 00:43:15 | consistently. And not look at it as you have to have the full port on every trade. That means from entry to target or Terminus where you think that price is |
| 242 | 00:43:15 --> 00:43:23 | ultimately gonna go. In the beginning. It's unrealistic, it's unreasonable for you to anticipate and expect that you are going to be able to do that every |
| 243 | 00:43:23 --> 00:43:32 | single time. And it's not failure for you not to be able to do that it's progress reaching towards that goal. And the amount of time that it's going to |
| 244 | 00:43:32 --> 00:43:38 | take for you to get there, you don't know how much that is going to require of you. I don't know that. And that's why I can't tell anybody, it's going to be |
| 245 | 00:43:38 --> 00:43:47 | this much time for you to learn how to do this. Everyone's kind of come to this adventure with their own problems, their own character flaws, and you have to |
| 246 | 00:43:47 --> 00:43:55 | wrestle through them. I can't fix it for you. There's no other person out there that's teaching. And I don't care if they're wildly profitable. And they do live |
| 247 | 00:43:55 --> 00:44:05 | streaming, they show you everything. They can't fix these things that are in us as humans, we have to subdue them ourselves. And it's going to take an unknown |
| 248 | 00:44:05 --> 00:44:13 | amount of time for each of us. For me, I had it figured out in three about a little less than three and a half years. But I tinkered with it. So it took me |
| 249 | 00:44:13 --> 00:44:25 | six years to know exactly what I was doing. Are you willing to subscribe to an idea in pursuit for multiple years and not feel comfortable with the consistency |
| 250 | 00:44:25 --> 00:44:34 | but still keep doing it? If you do have that wherewithal and that tenacity, then you have the base element that's required to be a traitor because there has to |
| 251 | 00:44:34 --> 00:44:41 | be a level of tenacity that's unshakable. No matter what you're going to stay with this you're going to you're going to stick with it because you know, it's |
| 252 | 00:44:41 --> 00:44:50 | meant for you. Which is different between a gambler that just doesn't want to leave the table. There's statistical probabilities that I'm cheating. I'm |
| 253 | 00:44:50 --> 00:45:00 | sharing. I'm teaching and proving through third party audited settings now, other people around the world doing the same thing. There's an No excuse why you |
| 254 | 00:45:00 --> 00:45:11 | don't want to submit to time, you can learn this. And you can use whatever time frame that fits your personal life. So don't think that you have to do one |
| 255 | 00:45:11 --> 00:45:25 | specific timeframe or one specific model, every model isn't for everyone. I'm gonna say that, again, every single thing that I teach isn't equipped as a |
| 256 | 00:45:25 --> 00:45:38 | perfect glove in hinh type of marriage where it fits perfectly for you. It's not for everyone. So it's a wrestling match for you to decide how you're going to |
| 257 | 00:45:38 --> 00:45:50 | use the information. And I have provided complete models, step by step, Do this, do this, do this if you want to trade like this model. And I've coached I've |
| 258 | 00:45:50 --> 00:45:59 | told you, I've told my private mentorship students exactly how to use these things, the plug and play, you don't need an affair value gap to be the model. |
| 259 | 00:46:00 --> 00:46:12 | You can use a mitigation block, which I don't talk very much about, but I love them. What is that it's this candle right here. This high didn't go above this |
| 260 | 00:46:12 --> 00:46:23 | high, I don't need to to, because I'm looking for it to go where it lower. So inside this candle here, as price is trading down, it trades down trades through |
| 261 | 00:46:23 --> 00:46:33 | it the next day, we're trading in it inside this range, you can be accelerated here, especially if it's opening, it's trading above it, you're trading in the |
| 262 | 00:46:33 --> 00:46:44 | highest portion of the power three, on a potentially bearish day. In a sell program where the market is likely to keep going lower were down here rest it |
| 263 | 00:46:44 --> 00:46:56 | was gonna go to inside of this candle in that range above the opening of that day, you could be a short seller risk has to be above mean threshold this candle |
| 264 | 00:46:56 --> 00:47:11 | why that one? Because mean thresholds just above this inefficiency here. So what do I have three PD arrays, I have the previous mean threshold of this down close |
| 265 | 00:47:11 --> 00:47:19 | candle if I'm gonna sell short on here using a mitigation block. And I have the mean threshold of the bearish order block. And I have the high of |
| 266 | 00:47:20 --> 00:47:32 | this old inefficiency. That's three PD arrays. So my stops are always be will be behind three PD arrays. Because if three PD arrays fail, next things my ass. And |
| 267 | 00:47:32 --> 00:47:41 | I don't I don't want to be in a trade that has three things that I would suggest is helpful for the trade to be there. If three of them are nixed. That means |
| 268 | 00:47:41 --> 00:47:49 | they're they're trading through it. That means me as the operator meet technician, that mechanic the person behind the decision of pressing a button |
| 269 | 00:47:49 --> 00:47:57 | getting into a trade. That means I have done it wrong. It doesn't mean my system or methodology or my logic is flawed, it means that I have made the error. |
| 270 | 00:47:57 --> 00:48:05 | There's nothing to wrestle with. There's nothing to argue about. There's no shame in it, it's absolutely time to get out or have a stoploss in its place. So |
| 271 | 00:48:05 --> 00:48:13 | that way, there's nothing to worry about. It's an objective decision that's outside my control, it's going to do its job on paying for that stock to pay me |
| 272 | 00:48:14 --> 00:48:23 | at that point to get out with a limited amount of loss or whatever profit and loss meted lead with. How's that for logic. But you're all wrestling with |
| 273 | 00:48:23 --> 00:48:32 | putting a stoploss in because you don't know how to read price. You have to do the things I'm telling you to do avoid the things I'm telling you to avoid. |
| 274 | 00:48:33 --> 00:48:43 | Focus on learning. Allow yourself to journal. Take these examples, go back through price action, and see if they don't repeat. And by doing that, what will |
| 275 | 00:48:43 --> 00:48:51 | happen is you'll grow and your understanding your stop losses that have to be widened beginning will start to narrow over time. You'll grow more comfortable |
| 276 | 00:48:51 --> 00:49:01 | with not expecting some wild spiky move. Oh my goodness, I'm in a trade. I just know it's going to move 80 pips against me because that would kill me. That |
| 277 | 00:49:01 --> 00:49:09 | would be the worst case scenario. And that's how you trade all the time. You think the boogeyman is gonna get you every single time. I'm the boogey man, I'm |
| 278 | 00:49:09 --> 00:49:21 | telling you what we do. This is how to done there's nothing for you to be afraid of. If you take a loss, that's not that's not being defeated. That's you using |
| 279 | 00:49:21 --> 00:49:33 | your insurance. That's it, you're paying for insurance, you're paying that stock to ensure that you will not have a cat have a catastrophic loss. That's what you |
| 280 | 00:49:33 --> 00:49:42 | want. That's exactly what you wanted to do. But you're looking at it and you're teaching yourself to view a stoploss as this is scary. I don't want this to |
| 281 | 00:49:42 --> 00:49:48 | happen. Let me do everything to avoid it by not using a stop loss. And then you wonder why you're wrecking yourself. You're blowing out your accounts, you're |
| 282 | 00:49:48 --> 00:49:56 | drawn down to a point that you can't come out of in all manner of drawdown, it can come out you can come out of that. There's no drawdown that you can't come |
| 283 | 00:49:56 --> 00:50:03 | out of. It just means that you have to submit to a whole lot of time and when You see things like Steve burns, putting up things on Twitter, you know, if you |
| 284 | 00:50:03 --> 00:50:10 | do this much drawdown takes you this. I don't even think about that. I don't look at those things. Because when you look at things like that says, you have |
| 285 | 00:50:10 --> 00:50:19 | to do this much to get your money back. If you lose this much in drawdown. That's nonsense. Every single series of winning trades, is just one incremental |
| 286 | 00:50:19 --> 00:50:27 | step forward. It doesn't matter how much drawdown you go into. It doesn't matter in the beginning, when you're learning, all those things are perfect learning |
| 287 | 00:50:27 --> 00:50:37 | experiences. But if you constantly feed yourself a negative diet, that if I do this, this is what's going to happen. And it's always a terrible, most fearful |
| 288 | 00:50:37 --> 00:50:43 | thing for you to have. And you wonder why you're afraid to trade with a model, you're afraid to use a stop loss, you're afraid to use realistic leverage, |
| 289 | 00:50:43 --> 00:50:56 | because everybody else is telling you to do ask backwards theology. Think folks think? How many times do I have to tell you something before it happens? How |
| 290 | 00:50:56 --> 00:51:05 | long does it have to happen? How many more students you have to see come forward with real results. And you have to not be selective in your hearing when I'm |
| 291 | 00:51:05 --> 00:51:14 | teaching. And I'm telling you what to focus on, and how to think about it. Try to apply, it's going to be uncomfortable, probably. But try very hard to try to |
| 292 | 00:51:14 --> 00:51:25 | apply it to how you study price. And that's the only it's a growing pain. You have to go through these things to learn what not to do, and focus on the things |
| 293 | 00:51:25 --> 00:51:34 | that you've done right? And cheerlead yourself, when you did it, right, really poured on thick in your journal, I'm so pleased, I'm so proud of myself that I |
| 294 | 00:51:34 --> 00:51:44 | was able to see this coming. I'm glad I did not hurt myself with this idea that if I would have looked at it this way, this would have resulted in a loss. But I |
| 295 | 00:51:44 --> 00:51:52 | didn't see it this way, I saw it this way. You're encouraging yourself, you're being your own counselor, your own best cheerleader and you're writing the best |
| 296 | 00:51:52 --> 00:52:03 | technical analysis book in trading literature there is because it's applicable to you. Anybody else that would have their hands on it reading it wouldn't get |
| 297 | 00:52:03 --> 00:52:09 | the same thing from it. But you when you read it, you'll be able to refer back to these milestones where you've grown in your understanding, and you encourage |
| 298 | 00:52:09 --> 00:52:18 | yourself through rough patches, and you're going to have to have that there's gonna be a period where you are encountering the market. And my personal |
| 299 | 00:52:18 --> 00:52:25 | students, you know, that paid me. We had periods where I just simply didn't want to do anything. And it was uncomfortable for some of them, because they're like |
| 300 | 00:52:25 --> 00:52:35 | we paid you, you should be able to tell us Yeah, told you sit still sit still and wait. And then when the market cleared itself up, and moved out of |
| 301 | 00:52:35 --> 00:52:46 | uncertainty, a consolidation that was not conducive for them to learn well in. I'm right back to 90 plus strike right again. And again, my students would have |
| 302 | 00:52:46 --> 00:52:58 | came forward with proof that that wasn't true if it wasn't. Alright, so let's go into I wanted to look at Aussie dollar real quick, as I mentioned, just briefly |
| 303 | 00:52:58 --> 00:53:15 | look at that. Alright, so right away. Right under here. Admittedly, I thought we would get this load taken out while sleeping last night. So just be mindful that |
| 304 | 00:53:15 --> 00:53:25 | there's sellside below here. So I would like to see it in over the course of the today and going into Friday. I'd like to see a gravitate below that. I'm not |
| 305 | 00:53:25 --> 00:53:38 | saying that. That's all there is. But to me, it makes sense where to reach down there. Bullish dollar bearish everything else basically. Gold, it's gold? Why |
| 306 | 00:53:38 --> 00:53:50 | don't you talk about gold ICT? because gold is a market that is very, very manipulated, very manipulated. So can you trade it? Can I trade it? Yes. Do my |
| 307 | 00:53:50 --> 00:53:57 | students trade it? Yes. Is it something you should try to trade every single day? I don't believe so. But that's my opinion. And if you have a model, if you |
| 308 | 00:53:57 --> 00:54:05 | have an approach, or if your whole existence as a trader revolves around this, you know, what is my opinion? Nothing. It's just my opinion. It's like assholes. |
| 309 | 00:54:05 --> 00:54:18 | Everybody has one. So if we look at this gap in here, I don't recall exactly when I said it, but obviously, it's in the chart. So I know I talked about gold, |
| 310 | 00:54:18 --> 00:54:27 | eventually trying to reach down into the inefficiency which is here. So I'm going to leave it to you all than to look at your notes or go back and you sift |
| 311 | 00:54:27 --> 00:54:37 | through all the videos. It's been commentary since since hear that in this timeframe, so I guess, late May, early June, from that timeframe, I was talking |
| 312 | 00:54:37 --> 00:54:48 | to how we could potentially trawl down into this. This gap in here and take out the sell side the below here. We got real close to it there. So it to me it |
| 313 | 00:54:48 --> 00:54:56 | makes perfect sense. If dollar keeps going higher, that's going to put pressure on. I'm not saying selling pressure but it's going to put pressure on the |
| 314 | 00:54:56 --> 00:55:09 | sentiment idea of gold wanting to be bullish. So how a higher dollar that's going to allow for weaker prices and gold to diametrically opposed when they're |
| 315 | 00:55:09 --> 00:55:18 | not. And they move in tandem, you're in a very, very, very risky scenario. That's a decoupling. So when there's a decoupling that means you have to be a |
| 316 | 00:55:18 --> 00:55:26 | scalper or do nothing. So we have this low here and allow here. So they're relatively equal, and you have the inefficiency that's open. And if it |
| 317 | 00:55:26 --> 00:55:32 | accelerates below this low here, we can trade down into the order block that which begins at this candles opening. So those are the levels that I'd be |
| 318 | 00:55:32 --> 00:55:44 | interesting. As long as go, I'm sorry, as long as dollar is going. Higher. There's those are levels I'm looking for, which is below these lows here. A |
| 319 | 00:55:44 --> 00:55:59 | complete repricing of this. This candle is high on March 10. And the low of this candle on March 14, that inefficiency was shaded in blue. I would like to see |
| 320 | 00:55:59 --> 00:56:11 | that entirely closed and repriced, to assuming dollars going higher still. And then it accelerates lower down into the order block right here. Okay, so I'm not |
| 321 | 00:56:11 --> 00:56:20 | bullish on gold, I would not be going short. I don't want to trade it. But I know a lot of you asked me. So I've now commented and told you what I believe |
| 322 | 00:56:20 --> 00:56:31 | what changes this would change my constitution of what I believe that gold may or may not do, gold would have to go above this order block right there on a |
| 323 | 00:56:31 --> 00:56:44 | closing basis. So as long as we're not closing above September 22, that candles high, which is 1929, we'll just call it 1929 and a half, as long as we don't |
| 324 | 00:56:44 --> 00:56:48 | have a closing on a daily chart above that photoblog. |
| 325 | 00:56:49 --> 00:56:59 | I believe that these levels here are in play for gold. And I think that's pretty clear. I'm not in it, I'm not going to trade it. But for the sake of the folks |
| 326 | 00:56:59 --> 00:57:09 | that are asking, that's the that's the line in the sand that I believe that we're reaching for the three of them here. And I believe that is the icebreaker |
| 327 | 00:57:10 --> 00:57:20 | that changes the whole discussion. And I'm wrong if it goes on a closing basis above this candle is high. Okay, so as long as that's in intact in price action, |
| 328 | 00:57:21 --> 00:57:34 | that's how I'm viewing goals that we go forward that and that's good too. Yes, real quick. This is already longer than I wanted it to be. Something I like to |
| 329 | 00:57:34 --> 00:57:45 | carry stay on all day ICT. I'm here. I'm here for. I'm not here for that. Let's see what time in Israel at nine o'clock. I've got a couple of minutes left and |
| 330 | 00:57:45 --> 00:57:56 | at the zoo with my son here. Part of his homeschooling is reading price action with me like that. Alright, so let's go up to the weekly chart, get through this |
| 331 | 00:57:56 --> 00:58:05 | real quick. Again, if you're learning today, if you like what you're hearing seen this, give it a thumbs up. It's free doesn't cost you anything, I promise. |
| 332 | 00:58:06 --> 00:58:20 | No coupon codes are required. Alright, so if you recall, as we were trading in August, I said that we were gonna go up and trade into this high here four Es |
| 333 | 00:58:20 --> 00:58:32 | and on the NASDAQ. I'll show you the same thing. There's a small little gap in here. I say we would run that. And then I said, thinking in terms of a quarterly |
| 334 | 00:58:32 --> 00:58:40 | shift, that means the next two to three months. What am I expecting because everybody likes to think that I cherry pick things and delete things that |
| 335 | 00:58:40 --> 00:58:52 | weren't accurate. That's not the case. I never delete anything. The idea of a quarterly shift is absolutely unavoidable in terms of whether I'm right or |
| 336 | 00:58:52 --> 00:59:11 | wrong. So I said that we would go up to go down. Did we take out that high? No. We trade just inside this inefficiency rate there. Then what I said the |
| 337 | 00:59:11 --> 00:59:22 | quarterly shift I'm expecting I want to see as we've seen price trading into October November. I think that's it's verbatim as I can get. I know I said going |
| 338 | 00:59:22 --> 00:59:34 | into October. But my students and my core content lessons teach you this. So it's a matter of listening to what I taught and putting into practice. I did the |
| 339 | 00:59:34 --> 00:59:43 | analysis on YouTube. It was in livestream it was in recorded sessions that are time and date stamped You can't escape it. It's their inherent we are we're |
| 340 | 00:59:43 --> 00:59:56 | trading inside the inefficiency down here. I mentioned that inside this inefficiency between this weekly low candle coming in at 4352 and a half in this |
| 341 | 00:59:56 --> 01:00:09 | candle here on May 22 of 2023 If I had drawn down to this body, the reason why I did that, and I explained it, I don't know if it was in a Twitter commentary |
| 342 | 01:00:09 --> 01:00:17 | video, or if I've done something on recording on YouTube, I'll leave it to you. And if you know which one I'm referring to, where I talked about how I'm just |
| 343 | 01:00:17 --> 01:00:26 | going to draw it down to this area, because it takes into account the volume and balance that's here. Like if I take this off for a second, right away, Your eyes |
| 344 | 01:00:26 --> 01:00:39 | should snap right to that as a volume of bounce. So usually, you would see me do this. That's the volume of bounce in liquid start consequent encroachment. |
| 345 | 01:00:40 --> 01:00:49 | Because there's no bodies there. There's no balance price range, there's no order block. So the midpoint is what consequent encroachment. So let's test the |
| 346 | 01:00:49 --> 01:01:07 | theory. From body to Bodhi, what's the price here 43 07 and a quarter? What is the love here 43 05 and a half. And we're looking at a weekly chart. Now, if you |
| 347 | 01:01:07 --> 01:01:15 | are using analysis concepts on a weekly chart, and you are wanting to see if there was something that's measurable in terms of precision, if there's |
| 348 | 01:01:15 --> 01:01:23 | something there's a rhyme and reason behind why price should do something, that should be a very good selling point that what I'm teaching you on a higher grade |
| 349 | 01:01:23 --> 01:01:34 | timeframe, like weekly charts, like there's a whole lot of price action, a whole lot of randomness, a whole lot of buying and selling pressure going on. Of |
| 350 | 01:01:34 --> 01:01:43 | course, I'm saying that facetiously. But that's pretty tight. No matter how you slice it, where you come from what's cool with thought that's a pretty good |
| 351 | 01:01:43 --> 01:01:54 | estimation for where a realistic draw on liquidity should be. Because if you think there's only going down here to go higher, I don't subscribe to that view. |
| 352 | 01:01:55 --> 01:02:04 | I believe that we might want to get into this a little bit more, and repriced, to the entire, closer that that's what I'm willing to subscribe to going into |
| 353 | 01:02:04 --> 01:02:15 | October. I don't think we've hit the low yet. I don't think we've seen capitulation. I don't think that we're bullish longer term, we're going into the |
| 354 | 01:02:15 --> 01:02:24 | harder part of times for the marketplace, in my opinion. But this is what the volume of bounce would look like if it was there in the chart, but because it |
| 355 | 01:02:24 --> 01:02:37 | was not. And I had shown you this, I incorporated the entire scope of the range between what would otherwise be drawn like this. That would be a fair a gap in |
| 356 | 01:02:37 --> 01:02:46 | the form of advice and balance on an efficiency. But because we have this volume imbalance. That's why I said I would draw it to here. So that encapsulates all |
| 357 | 01:02:46 --> 01:02:54 | of it. So kind of like gives you a little more detail. But here we are retreating down here. Go back and watch the August commentaries where I say it |
| 358 | 01:02:54 --> 01:03:10 | was going to go up here and in the quarterly shift is coming drilling down into there. So how many handles is that 300 ish is on the s&p By the way, which is |
| 359 | 01:03:11 --> 01:03:24 | that's a significant price run. Let's go on to the daily chart. I say this stuff to remind you and to have a emotional experience by helping you remember that |
| 360 | 01:03:24 --> 01:03:31 | these things were said to you beforehand. That's not bragging I know how to brag. This is not bragging it's to make you understand that these things were |
| 361 | 01:03:31 --> 01:03:48 | shared to you and with you real time in a capacity that can't be faked. So the market ran up in here took out the high broke, lower traded higher inefficiency, |
| 362 | 01:03:49 --> 01:04:00 | bearish order block, right there. price breaks, we want to see what we want to see proof that it wants to go lower. What would that look like? A breakaway got |
| 363 | 01:04:01 --> 01:04:20 | great there. Did that fill in this fill in there even repriced to it No. So this is a good signature to have to anticipate that we're really strongly in |
| 364 | 01:04:20 --> 01:04:33 | contention to run these lows out here. And we did so come back up trade into this low why does this low for classic Support Resistance guys? Because now |
| 365 | 01:04:33 --> 01:04:40 | you're thinking oh well he's making this complex because all we do is sell short here Okay, show me you entered shorter. If you know that this is how it works |
| 366 | 01:04:40 --> 01:04:50 | for the folks that come to me my comment section is saying it's this and it's that show me your trade entry on that stuff. You only talk about after happens |
| 367 | 01:04:50 --> 01:05:02 | I'm talking about before it happens and then I'm trading with real money on it. Hello. Why is this low now supposedly support after So port broken now becomes |
| 368 | 01:05:02 --> 01:05:11 | resistance. That's the theory, right? That's what everybody learns in the books. Why did it work right here? Why did that happen? Has nothing to do with this low |
| 369 | 01:05:16 --> 01:05:32 | whatsoever here, study that. Everything in here gives you this and that price runs down falls short of what the inbounds on the weekly chart if you can't see |
| 370 | 01:05:32 --> 01:05:48 | here, can't see it in here. Remember, this is the range is drawn on the weekly chart this. That's this right here. So if we go back to the daily if we wanted |
| 371 | 01:05:48 --> 01:06:05 | to do the inefficiency on this timeframe would start with here. There in utilizing the order block. But we have what shown that we have closed below it, |
| 372 | 01:06:06 --> 01:06:16 | meaning and I take that as okay, it might want to reprice up into what's already been delivered, which is this down close candle. And then we have what next to |
| 373 | 01:06:16 --> 01:06:25 | it right there. A wick. So inside of this wick, there's halfway, which is consequent coachmen. So I would have that level on your chart, I'm not going to |
| 374 | 01:06:25 --> 01:06:30 | do it because I don't want to spend time doing I'm gonna get through it. That is when I tell you where they are, you want to have that level on your chart, |
| 375 | 01:06:30 --> 01:06:38 | because it might it could very easily reach up into that and make everybody think that the law was in place, and then just use that as a rinse reason to |
| 376 | 01:06:38 --> 01:06:47 | trade lower. I'd like to personally, I would like to see it not trade there, because the fact that it's not trading there makes it a pdra as well. Because it |
| 377 | 01:06:47 --> 01:06:57 | would be treated the same way I would view like this breakaway gap up here. PDA rate is not traded to with an eye allowing for in my algorithm allows for it to |
| 378 | 01:06:57 --> 01:07:06 | trade to it normally, if it doesn't do that the information in the insight that it gives us that means that I am absolutely bearish. That means the market is |
| 379 | 01:07:06 --> 01:07:15 | really bearish if it can't trade up into consequent curriculum that week. But if it does, it would need to do what it would need to completely smash the shit out |
| 380 | 01:07:15 --> 01:07:25 | of it and keep it from going any higher. Because if this gives up the ghost, think about what we have. We have mean threshold. But this damn close candle, |
| 381 | 01:07:25 --> 01:07:39 | which I'll do it here for the sake of completion, we have half of that range, which is 434 3.75. Then we have the range of that inefficiency on the weekly |
| 382 | 01:07:39 --> 01:07:55 | chart or not on the on here. You want precision. These are the things you got to do, folks, this is too much this complication. Okay. Trade with mediocrity, you |
| 383 | 01:07:55 --> 01:08:06 | have mean threshold here. So right away, we have an agreement that there's two PD arrays saying that this is reasonable to trade to. But can it go beyond that |
| 384 | 01:08:07 --> 01:08:14 | in just like a mohawk or or stab up there and still remain bearish? What would we have to contend with? It would be this |
| 385 | 01:08:21 --> 01:08:36 | it's this wacky grab that Good grief. ICT, if you will just pay attention you were grabbing the wrong thing. I know, armchair quarterbacks. So 43 51.75. Okay, |
| 386 | 01:08:36 --> 01:08:46 | so in my mind, it's perfectly acceptable, it's permissible, it's reasonable, it would not change the bearish tone that the market has, it can trade that much |
| 387 | 01:08:46 --> 01:09:01 | higher today, tomorrow, Friday into next week, and still be bearish for me. Now, if we get a daily close above that 4351 and three quarters, that's problematic. |
| 388 | 01:09:02 --> 01:09:13 | Because why that's three PD arrays that it's now gone through. Oh, light bulbs are coming on our day. But this is not even a weekly chart. So if you would have |
| 389 | 01:09:13 --> 01:09:25 | did this, there's nothing wrong with that. Absolutely nothing wrong with it. But you can't just simply just use that. When you have a real volume imbalance down |
| 390 | 01:09:25 --> 01:09:37 | here. There's, there's a link between this candle and this candle only by the basis of its wick, see that this little wick here. So you have to have to |
| 391 | 01:09:37 --> 01:09:48 | encapsulate that to just like I mentioned on the weekly chart. So if there's ever a gap, or an inefficiency, like a volume imbalance within a buy side or |
| 392 | 01:09:48 --> 01:09:56 | sell side imbalance, or fair value gap, you have to incorporate the entirety of that because it's going to be meaningful, it's going to be impactful. As you can |
| 393 | 01:09:56 --> 01:10:08 | see, do you want them a little bit outside that there In this order block here, you can use the last down close up, I'm sorry, the last down close game and |
| 394 | 01:10:08 --> 01:10:19 | prior to moving higher, that is the change in the state of delivery that candles, opening price, so you can incorporate that as well. So those are the |
| 395 | 01:10:19 --> 01:10:28 | key levels I would have for ETS. And I'm not changing my stance on I believe we're going lower still. And I just told you exactly what would change my mind |
| 396 | 01:10:28 --> 01:10:37 | about being bearish. Okay, it would have to close on a daily chart above the mean threshold tightening threshold consequent curtailment of that candlesticks |
| 397 | 01:10:37 --> 01:10:53 | tail or wick onto the body of it. And now we can move it over to NASDAQ finally made it finally made it here weekly chart I got a couple minutes I can do it, I |
| 398 | 01:10:53 --> 01:11:05 | can do it. Alright, so here is the same application of what I was referring to do this lecture for using inefficiencies and mapping them on your chart. If you |
| 399 | 01:11:05 --> 01:11:17 | have a volume imbalance that's part of would be the candles that make the by Sanibel sauce on efficiency in this case here the fair value gap with an up |
| 400 | 01:11:17 --> 01:11:28 | close which is a busy you can't ignore the volume imbalance you have to include that if you really want to see the total scope of the inefficiency that's how |
| 401 | 01:11:28 --> 01:11:38 | you would do it. You don't want to just do it this way because you're not making or taking into account that could trade down there too. Okay, so that's why it's |
| 402 | 01:11:38 --> 01:11:49 | there and we have seen it trade down into the volume of balance here and consequent encouragement of this wick |
| 403 | 01:11:56 --> 01:12:05 | so we went below here for sulci it's perfectly reasonable for to trade above this candle high and trade into this portion here I would not want to see a |
| 404 | 01:12:05 --> 01:12:11 | close above the volume and balance that's right there as long as we don't close above the volume and bounce rate here |
| 405 | 01:12:21 --> 01:12:33 | I'm bearish long term that makes that changes the whole setting for me, but it can trade all the way up and you can touch you can trade into it but cannot |
| 406 | 01:12:33 --> 01:12:44 | close above that be closes above that. I am not bearish doesn't mean go along but it doesn't mean anything but I'm I've abandoned bearishness, because I think |
| 407 | 01:12:44 --> 01:12:50 | that ultimately, we're going to see before Thanksgiving |
| 408 | 01:12:59 --> 01:13:15 | that's where I think NASDAQ is going to be before Turkey Day. Barring any run, and we're closing bases here, above that weekly volume imbalance. Okay. Why am I |
| 409 | 01:13:15 --> 01:13:25 | picking that? Because we had this week's high that's a PD array we have you guys are really learning some stuff today. I really expect to see some measure of |
| 410 | 01:13:26 --> 01:13:33 | thumbs up on this because it really it discourages me that you're willing to sit through this stuff for free. I'm not charging anything. I can be done. I got my |
| 411 | 01:13:33 --> 01:13:42 | son living waiting here next to me, looking at me like are we going to be doing anything around this going to watch this. I have other things I could be doing. |
| 412 | 01:13:42 --> 01:13:50 | And I'm asking for the simplest little currency, which is a thumbs up, it'll help you find this video also, because it'll be in your liked videos. Here's |
| 413 | 01:13:50 --> 01:13:59 | another thing, you can create a YouTube channel as a student of mine, and like certain things and it'll allow you to go there's very videos to have, there's |
| 414 | 01:13:59 --> 01:14:10 | certain things that you want to revisit, like things are really good lessons. Like these are things that that my private students don't even know this, like |
| 415 | 01:14:10 --> 01:14:18 | I'm teaching this just like they're you're learning for the first time they're learning with you. So there's no there's no mentorship being done. Okay, where |
| 416 | 01:14:18 --> 01:14:26 | there's videos being done, I'm not giving signals I'm not doing videos for a group of private people. I'm literally teaching you for free openly publicly, |
| 417 | 01:14:26 --> 01:14:36 | because I'm making it profitable for people to try to sell my stuff. They can come here and get it for free. But with all that said we have this present weeks |
| 418 | 01:14:36 --> 01:14:45 | high. So if we trade above that, that's one PD rate I'm willing to accept on the weekly chart because I'm framing my bearishness on the weekly chart whereas the |
| 419 | 01:14:45 --> 01:15:02 | other two PD arrays well mean threshold I'm sorry consequent curtailment of crops. If we have this low, let's formed on this candles high or the present |
| 420 | 01:15:02 --> 01:15:13 | weekly high. And this candle is high of September 11. This has been treated as what last week has been treated as a fair value gap in the form of a sell side |
| 421 | 01:15:13 --> 01:15:23 | imbalance buys on inefficiency and means it's a city. Okay, down close, fair value gaps are cities up close candles that are fair value gaps or bases. I'm |
| 422 | 01:15:23 --> 01:15:31 | accepting the fact that it can trade above this week's high. It doesn't change long term bearishness. For me. I'm accepting the fact that it could trade all |
| 423 | 01:15:31 --> 01:15:50 | the way back up to consequent encroachment of this candles in efficiency, which is what I hear 15,001 56 and a quarter. Guys are failing, I apologize. And then |
| 424 | 01:15:50 --> 01:15:59 | you had the volume and bounce here. So there's three PDA raise, that kills it for me. If we have a closing price, on a daily chart, we're looking at a weekly, |
| 425 | 01:15:59 --> 01:16:11 | but if it closes above this volume and balance on the weekly chart, I have a boarded the idea that this is where I believe it's going until this occurs if it |
| 426 | 01:16:11 --> 01:16:20 | if it closes and I don't believe it will do this. I'm tipping my hat I'm showing you that this is what kills it for me and no longer am I bearish on NASDAQ to |
| 427 | 01:16:20 --> 01:16:33 | this degree where I believe it's going to go down here by Thanksgiving. So I'm giving you a time horizon. I time target an actual price target. And what makes |
| 428 | 01:16:33 --> 01:16:42 | me wrong, where I am no longer subscribing to the view that we're bearish. That my friends is a complete analysis where it tells you where I believe as the |
| 429 | 01:16:42 --> 01:16:50 | operator of using this information. This is where I believe I'm wrong. This is where I'm wrong in the interpretation. This is where I'm wrong as the trader is |
| 430 | 01:16:50 --> 01:17:03 | where I'm wrong as the analyst. So I'm, I'm speaking to you today in the role of the analyst in ICT, where usually you get the trader and the wild guy on Twitter |
| 431 | 01:17:03 --> 01:17:12 | spaces. You're hearing the analysts today I'm showing you a porn veil back and I'm telling you, what makes me feel that it's bearish? And what would change |
| 432 | 01:17:12 --> 01:17:22 | that these are all the questions that you're trying to figure out on your own. And until you look at it like this, there has to be three levels that would |
| 433 | 01:17:22 --> 01:17:35 | otherwise be completely acceptable. Reasonable retracement points. But if three of them fail, that's a definite, we're done. It's three, it's three PDE arrays |
| 434 | 01:17:36 --> 01:17:43 | than your asses next. That's it. That's the way you remember it. That's how I internalize it. That means if the three things that I would reasonably expect to |
| 435 | 01:17:43 --> 01:17:54 | see price perform in a function of in this case, resistance, it should stop price, it should keep price at bay from wanting to go higher. But if it signals |
| 436 | 01:17:54 --> 01:18:02 | a close above that volume imbalance, that's what smart money is going to see as okay, we're we're no longer moving sideways. I'm sorry, we're no longer moving |
| 437 | 01:18:02 --> 01:18:09 | lower, we may move sideways, and then wait for more information. And if there's a displacement to the upside, then that tells smart money, okay? Wait for the |
| 438 | 01:18:09 --> 01:18:14 | reset to reprice lower, that's not buying and selling pressure. It's that literally that's how they signal to one another. That's just the way it is, |
| 439 | 01:18:14 --> 01:18:21 | folks, I don't care if you believe me, I don't care. I don't care. I'm the one on here telling you before it happens. So if you go into a daily chart |
| 440 | 01:18:26 --> 01:18:35 | okay, you don't see the volume and bounce the same way on the weekly chart here. But we ended up getting one right there. That's convenient, isn't it? So right |
| 441 | 01:18:35 --> 01:18:44 | away, that is a double whammy. It's like pay attention to me. Pay attention to me. If we never trade back up there. That's wonderful because that acts as what? |
| 442 | 01:18:46 --> 01:18:59 | What does that act as a gap. That gap does not retreated to or reprice to is a significant mile marker and a price run. We have a breakaway gap like up in s&p, |
| 443 | 01:18:59 --> 01:19:09 | we have a gap here in the form of this moment, if it never trades there. And we also have another gap there. It never even was interested. We have one here, the |
| 444 | 01:19:09 --> 01:19:22 | price get up into new price broke lower. We're below this low. So now because we tapped into and engaged a pool of liquidity on a higher timeframe, weekly and |
| 445 | 01:19:22 --> 01:19:34 | daily timeframe, which is below here. All those orders. They've been engaged right there. Now we have to wait does it need to? Does it need to come back up |
| 446 | 01:19:34 --> 01:19:46 | above here? I think personally, it should not even go above this level here. I don't think it needs to do that. And if I'm watching the daily chart, I'm going |
| 447 | 01:19:46 --> 01:19:56 | to be a whole lot more sensitive to not taking shorts if we get above here. Even though we're giving you this context on the weekly chart on a daily chart, I |
| 448 | 01:19:56 --> 01:20:04 | don't think that the structure in place right here is allowing For any need for price to get up there. So I'm saying basically that I would like to see the mean |
| 449 | 01:20:05 --> 01:20:15 | or not, I mean, the the consequent corrosion of this candlesticks tail, or the wick below its body, I'd like to see it stay below that. And if I if I get that, |
| 450 | 01:20:16 --> 01:20:25 | and we get the trade to it or refuse to trade to it and just break lower today and tomorrow and the Friday, we're really, really bearish. So it gives you a lot |
| 451 | 01:20:25 --> 01:20:33 | of context in terms of the magnitude of the move that's potentially unfolding. So this is all part of reading price and reading the tape, getting the details |
| 452 | 01:20:33 --> 01:20:43 | of what should be allowed for in price. But if it doesn't even have an interest in returning to those levels, that is extremely powerful for being onside in |
| 453 | 01:20:43 --> 01:20:51 | your trades. You don't get that stuff in books, you don't get that stuff from, you know, all the retail logic, it's a lot of things that have to be weighed |
| 454 | 01:20:51 --> 01:20:59 | out. And it's not easy. I never claimed it was going to be easy. But I said I would make it easier by showing you the things that I think about in terms of my |
| 455 | 01:20:59 --> 01:21:14 | internal dialogue, and what has been used and codified in my algorithm. So I think we did it in 27, lower prices in order. Turkey Day Thanksgiving, buy, then |
| 456 | 01:21:15 --> 01:21:22 | that's what I want I want down there. If it takes a week after that into December, who cares? I didn't see that as a failure. I'm bearish. I'm going to |
| 457 | 01:21:22 --> 01:21:29 | be looking for shorts, I'm going to continuously make money going short with real money out. I'm literally going to beat the shit out of it. I'm showing you |
| 458 | 01:21:29 --> 01:21:36 | examples of it. I'm zooming in where you guys like to ignore when it's down here. You're saying it's a demo account, go down here and look in those recorded |
| 459 | 01:21:36 --> 01:21:46 | executions. It says live, okay. I don't even know if amp has a demo account. I've never even looked at it. But if it does, hook it up to trading view and see |
| 460 | 01:21:46 --> 01:21:56 | if it says amp live down here for demo. Bucha $1,000 budget 10,000 hours it doesn't do how's that? I haven't even looked. I'm willing to bet that. But until |
| 461 | 01:21:56 --> 01:22:12 | I talk to you next time, I'm gonna go head over to watch a live streamer and see what's going on there. And then I'll share anything that I do or teach my son in |
| 462 | 01:22:12 --> 01:22:21 | the process. Later today on Twitter, himself very brand new, wonderful day, be safe, and I'll talk to you next time. Good luck, good trading |