ICT YT - 2023-09-21 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Commentary Livestream September 21 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-09-26 12:09
Outline
01:41 - Twitter feedback and market analysis.
- Dominic seeks feedback on Twitter audio quality and chart visibility.
03:08 - Market trends and potential price movements.
- ICT believes there will be a sell-off in equities due to various factors, including a potential shocking event in the coming weeks.
- ICT highlights a specific imbalance on the weekly chart for May 22 2023, indicating a potential repricing on the downside.
- ICT wants to see a drawdown into a specific area on a weekly chart, with a focus on the speed of the downward move.
- ICT believes there are significant challenges ahead for financial institutions, equities, currencies, and commodities.
08:52 - Dollar index forecast and potential trading setups.
- ICT expects the dollar index to reach 121-22 in the near future due to flight to quality and safe haven demands.
- ICT anticipates a potential blow-off in the dollar index, potentially reaching the 115-16 area, but warns of reckless trading decisions from inexperienced individuals.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of determining the next draw on liquidity when first starting to analyze the market.
- He recommends focusing on the weekly chart to identify potential bullish scenarios, such as SMT divergences in closely correlated instruments.
15:08 - Trading with the dollar as a reference point.
- ICT suggests trading with the opening price, finding a setup that trades lower first and then higher, and using a reasonable stop.
- ICT encourages traders to look outside their usual timeframes, such as weekly or monthly charts, to find inefficiencies and potential trading opportunities.
- Trader focuses on 1-minute charts for intraday trading, using weekly and daily charts for context.
18:39 - Trading with a dollar-bias and market analysis.
- ICT: Risk off means other assets will struggle, but dollar up moves are trustworthy (18:39)
- Focus on New York session for trading, not Asian session (19:00)
- ICT challenges the audience to think differently about trading, suggesting that focusing on a single currency pair can lead to missed opportunities.
- ICT uses the Euro-Dollar and Pound-Dollar currency pairs as examples of closely correlated instruments that can be traded together, with the potential for divergence signals.
24:07 - High probability trading strategies.
- Trader discusses Euro dollar and pound dollar trading strategies based on selling short and anticipating market declines.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of identifying a symmetrical market with diametrically opposed forces, as this is a key indicator of high probability trading.
- The speaker highlights the need to see both sides of the trade, whether buying or selling short, in order to anticipate the likelihood of a market move.
29:33 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of having a low resistance liquidity run in trading, where the market moves smoothly and quickly in the trader's favor.
- ICT encourages traders to focus on setups that are framed on both sides of the market, where there is no justification for the market to go higher or pause, resulting in a smooth and efficient trade execution.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of discipline and patience in trading, highlighting the need to wait for the right opportunities and avoid impulsive decisions.
- ICT stresses the importance of understanding the market's rhythm and timing, emphasizing that a fair value gap doesn't need to be the first visit and that the algorithm will revisit inefficient levels.
35:33 - Trading and financial goals with practical advice.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of patience and effort in achieving financial success, rather than relying on quick fixes or get-rich-quick schemes.
- ICT acknowledges the challenges of learning and implementing trading strategies, but provides practical advice and warnings to help listeners avoid common mistakes.
38:04 - Trading strategies and avoiding common mistakes.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of objectivity and balance in trading, acknowledging that mistakes will be made in the beginning but encouraging journaling and studying to improve.
- ICT stresses the value of time-stamped evidence and annotations in recognizing repeating patterns in the market, with the goal of creating a journal that encourages and supports future self-improvement.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of having a plan, strategy, and study routine in trading, rather than chasing new ideas or getting caught up in the "sugar high" of quick profits.
- ICT compares traders who follow his methods to millionaires, saying they all got there by doing the things he teaches and avoiding distractions, rather than trying to keep up with the latest trends or ideas.
43:54 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of mental preparation and risk management in trading, citing personal experiences of loss and fear.
- The speaker's son made almost $2,000 in profit from a single micro contract, highlighting the potential rewards of trading but also the need for caution and focus.
- ICT is waiting for payments to be resolved before taking any trades.
- ICT's son is using logic to trade, but failing due to impulsive decisions and lack of satisfaction with small profits.
49:28 - Market analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of patience in trading, suggesting that making only 3 trades a month can lead to significant profits.
- ICT analyzes the Euro vs. Pound market, identifying a potential setup for a short position.
- ICT warns of a potential "wealth transfer" in the markets, with currencies and crypto being particularly risky.
- ICT prefers trading commodities and index futures, which are more precise and less prone to wild price movements.
Transcript
| 1 | 00:01:41 --> 00:01:52 | ICT: Good morning, folks. hope everybody's doing well. If you could help me out here, I'm looking for some feedback on Twitter. If the audio is okay, and you |
| 2 | 00:01:52 --> 00:01:58 | can see my minutes, that one hour chart clearly, it's give me a five by five and I'll start |
| 3 | 00:02:19 --> 00:02:36 | Thank you, Dominic. Right, you thank you. Alright, so you had FOMC yesterday, obviously, let me get in here to my chart, I can change everything. So I'm going |
| 4 | 00:02:36 --> 00:02:47 | to delete everything. Remember back to clean chart weekly |
| 5 | 00:02:55 --> 00:03:15 | Alright, so I want you to see that obviously, we have moved lower from the swing high. On August 28 2023, that we go. Now we have the low |
| 6 | 00:03:21 --> 00:03:36 | right there for the week of August 14 2023. If you look to the left of that, you'll see my quarterly shift objective, which in my mind, I feel like we're |
| 7 | 00:03:36 --> 00:03:44 | about to see some softness on equities. So a lot of things going on in the world. And I think also in the coming weeks, we're gonna see some events that |
| 8 | 00:03:44 --> 00:03:53 | maybe might be shocking to you. And that's going to cause some reverberations in the marketplace. And if you've been listening to my twitter spaces, you know |
| 9 | 00:03:53 --> 00:04:05 | exactly what I'm talking about. But we're not gonna talk about that here. Obviously, these flaring, that's not the same color Alright, and then we have a |
| 10 | 00:04:05 --> 00:04:15 | small little volume imbalance in here. You can add that to your own chart here. But whenever I have this, where I have like a imbalance, which is this candle |
| 11 | 00:04:15 --> 00:04:29 | right here. Okay, so the candle on the weekly chart for May 22 or 22nd 2023. That is a biocide imbalance is on an efficiency. Okay, it's a fair value gap. |
| 12 | 00:04:29 --> 00:04:39 | But the specific is a busy because it's up close candle. So it's by side imbalance it's requiring a repricing with cell site means delivery on the |
| 13 | 00:04:39 --> 00:04:50 | downside. So I started my own cell site inefficient. When I have this, I just simply take the whole range in a highlight like that. That's why sometimes in |
| 14 | 00:04:50 --> 00:04:58 | the old videos like old videos, before I actually started talking about the details about the things I was looking for, students would ask me either one |
| 15 | 00:05:00 --> 00:05:08 | Baby pips back in a day or shortly thereafter once I left them, and no, they didn't kick me off with the form. And they would love for me to come back there |
| 16 | 00:05:08 --> 00:05:20 | and I would never do it. But the idea is this imbalance right here, right in there, I'm including that. So it's not just a matter of having it just like this |
| 17 | 00:05:23 --> 00:05:43 | it's having the entire range. Okay, so we want to have that highlighted. So we do have sellside, below the low of the week of Monday, August 14 2023. And that |
| 18 | 00:05:43 --> 00:05:56 | is, in my opinion, I think we're going to try to gravitate towards that. Maybe even before Friday's close. But next week, and going forward, I want to see a |
| 19 | 00:05:56 --> 00:06:08 | draw down into this area here. Now how much of an animation to the downside do we get? Once we get into this area, I have to see that based on how we trade to |
| 20 | 00:06:08 --> 00:06:20 | this area. Okay, so don't think I'm calling for one shot, one candle right there what you can do. But I'm not putting myself out there saying that, over the |
| 21 | 00:06:20 --> 00:06:28 | coming weeks, I'm going to submit to the idea that we're going to draw down into this little area here, which is specifically aimed around that by Southern Bell. |
| 22 | 00:06:28 --> 00:06:48 | So seven efficiency. Now, before I go any further with NASDAQ, I want to drop into s&p, same thing, we're going to clear everything. And this is out of |
| 23 | 00:06:48 --> 00:07:02 | balance, outstanding efficiency. For s&p, this is a weekly chart. So the week of May 30 2023. It has a volume imbalance as well notice that so the volume |
| 24 | 00:07:02 --> 00:07:12 | imbalance is the separation between the bodies of two consecutive candles side by side. So if there's ever a separation between the actual bodies, even if |
| 25 | 00:07:12 --> 00:07:24 | there is a wick that connects the two bodies, that's a volume imbalance. Okay, that's mine. It's not in your books. But we were writing about it on Amazon. I |
| 26 | 00:07:24 --> 00:07:35 | just went through Amazon last night, by the way. And there are so many books written about me my concepts and stuff. It's kind of weird actually. Went to bed |
| 27 | 00:07:35 --> 00:07:45 | thinking about that last night strange. But Boston unbalanced outstanding efficiency and volume imbalance. That's what's being highlighted here. We have |
| 28 | 00:07:45 --> 00:07:59 | sellside, which is easily going to be engaged here probably this morning. And do we accelerate down into this area here? Okay, one of the things I'm considering |
| 29 | 00:07:59 --> 00:08:08 | and what I'm looking for is the amount of speed, the amount of speed of how fast they want to get down into this area here. Because if they really trying to get |
| 30 | 00:08:08 --> 00:08:23 | their downer quick to me, I see that as we're probably going to go down for a longer bit. And we may end up going down to levels like this. Here, by the time |
| 31 | 00:08:23 --> 00:08:37 | we get to January or March in that time window, that's about as far out as I can see, I really think there's a lot of things coming on the horizon that are going |
| 32 | 00:08:37 --> 00:08:54 | to be plaguing the financial institutions, equities, currencies, commodities, we're getting ready to go into some really heavy stuff. And a lot of folks that |
| 33 | 00:08:54 --> 00:09:05 | have risk right now are not going to want to have risk. So they're going to accelerate that and amplify, I believe, I'm kind of like CO signing it right |
| 34 | 00:09:05 --> 00:09:16 | here so that we know what I'm doing here. My, my perspective going forward over the next six months or so, is bleak. It's not good. So you have to be very, very |
| 35 | 00:09:16 --> 00:09:30 | careful. Okay. And we're gonna drop into Dollar Index real quick. by scientists here, we're drawing up into that it's taken a long time to get there. But |
| 36 | 00:09:30 --> 00:09:44 | eventually, I think that we could have some kind of a blow off where if we get above this high here on the week of March 6 2023. If we get above that and start |
| 37 | 00:09:44 --> 00:09:56 | to accelerate, go back over to the left here. You see that November 7 2022. That big sell side unbalanced by side inefficiency. We might want to revisit that |
| 38 | 00:09:56 --> 00:10:11 | after taking the buy side above the high of November 21 2022. So longer term, we might see it, try to gravitate to that, how and if we trade that high, will be |
| 39 | 00:10:11 --> 00:10:22 | indicative of whether or not I think we go to the one fifteens. It everything happens like I'm expecting it to happen in an in a kind of like increases in its |
| 40 | 00:10:22 --> 00:10:38 | pace. The dollar index could actually go to like 121 22, because of the flight to quality, safe haven, they're gonna want to try to promote the idea of you |
| 41 | 00:10:38 --> 00:10:47 | come in here, put the money in into the dollar, eventually the rug is going to get pulled from underneath it. But that's, that's kind of like what I'm |
| 42 | 00:10:47 --> 00:10:55 | anticipating. Not that I have to have that every single day behind every trade I'm taking. That's not what I'm showing you here. Obviously, we're on a really, |
| 43 | 00:10:55 --> 00:11:04 | really high timeframe, weekly chart. And for someone that's brand new to trading, or someone that's brand new to my analysis concepts, it might sound |
| 44 | 00:11:04 --> 00:11:11 | like, well, this means dollar goes straight up every day, all day long. Every candle every one minute candle, every one second candle is going to be up close |
| 45 | 00:11:11 --> 00:11:21 | candle, I studied bullish on dollar. So I can't lose by going short on all the foreign currencies at any given time. That's not what I'm stating here. But many |
| 46 | 00:11:21 --> 00:11:30 | times that the new trader and a new student that comes to me will add their own interpretation. So I have to take a long way around the bottom, if you will, to |
| 47 | 00:11:30 --> 00:11:39 | explain myself, which makes me sound wordy, okay. And I have a lot to say about something that in my mind is paramount to protect the new student, the new |
| 48 | 00:11:39 --> 00:11:49 | viewer, that may take the information I'm sharing, and do something reckless with it, because they're impulsive or inexperienced. Okay, so just know that |
| 49 | 00:11:50 --> 00:11:57 | from a longer term perspective, these are some of the scenarios I'm considering. I don't require them to be this way. I mean, obviously, I can spin on the |
| 50 | 00:11:57 --> 00:12:07 | diamond trade, intraday on very, very, very small timeframes and not have a bias, you don't need a bias, it just means that while you're learning, it's |
| 51 | 00:12:07 --> 00:12:15 | advantageous for you as a student, or if you're going to be speculating or learn how to trade. It's, it's very advantageous for you to want to go in with the |
| 52 | 00:12:15 --> 00:12:28 | expectation of determining a directional bias, only looking for setups in that direction. And if you can argue the case that if you see something that you |
| 53 | 00:12:28 --> 00:12:34 | think is going to start going up, regardless of what market is, I don't care if it's even crypto, I don't trade crypto. I have students that make money in |
| 54 | 00:12:34 --> 00:12:42 | crypto and swear by my concepts. I have never traded crypto. And I don't do synthetic indices. I don't even know what the hell that is. But I get questioned |
| 55 | 00:12:42 --> 00:12:53 | a lot. What should we do when we first start looking at your content, take your time go through at your own pace. But the number one goal is for you to |
| 56 | 00:12:53 --> 00:13:04 | determine how to find the next draw on liquidity. That means where's the market likely to gravitate to? Well, I start every student on this timeframe on the |
| 57 | 00:13:04 --> 00:13:14 | weekly chart. Because even if you're wrong on an intraday basis, okay, so you're looking for a session, say from seven o'clock in the morning to nine o'clock in |
| 58 | 00:13:14 --> 00:13:19 | the morning, and you're trading Forex, or you're trading indices before the am session begins. |
| 59 | 00:13:22 --> 00:13:30 | If the weekly chart is indicating that it's likely to move higher, and you're only filtering out setups that are likely to create bullish scenarios, that |
| 60 | 00:13:30 --> 00:13:39 | means the market trades down to a bias on the balance sell side and efficiency or it trades down below a short term low. And it creates an SMT divergence where |
| 61 | 00:13:39 --> 00:13:49 | a closely correlated instrument like for instance, say trade Euro dollar, or POUND DOLLAR for Australian dollar and New Zealand Dollar, those two go together |
| 62 | 00:13:49 --> 00:13:57 | like Euro dollar and POUND DOLLAR. They're very, very closely correlated. If you're looking for things that would be bullish, you only need a few things. Not |
| 63 | 00:13:57 --> 00:14:05 | everything that I teach, don't think that you have to have all the things I've ever taught in your model you don't like you don't need to do that. You only |
| 64 | 00:14:05 --> 00:14:13 | need a few things, you need something that gives you a premise on a bias based on a higher timeframe. And a weekly chart is where I put your attention to |
| 65 | 00:14:13 --> 00:14:25 | first. So if we're thinking along the lines that 105 Let's see what that candle high is here. If you think that the dollar index and you agree with what I'm |
| 66 | 00:14:25 --> 00:14:33 | saying here, I'm not saying you should. You shouldn't, if you're brand new, don't trust what I'm saying. Wait and see if it happens. Because I'm not 100% |
| 67 | 00:14:33 --> 00:14:43 | Sometimes it doesn't happen for me right when I'm looking for it and I have to either sit on my hands or reverse or I'll take a loss but that high comes in at |
| 68 | 00:14:43 --> 00:14:53 | one zero 5.83. So if you think that the market is likely to keep drawing up to that level and higher, it's reasonable to anticipate weakness or sell setups in |
| 69 | 00:14:53 --> 00:15:09 | the Euro dollar POUND DOLLAR. Australian Dollar Kiwi dollar All other foreign currencies that are paired with the dollar as a secondary and its name. Anything |
| 70 | 00:15:09 --> 00:15:17 | that has the dollar first and its pair name would be going higher. So if you're thinking about looking at the market like that, and if you want to subscribe to |
| 71 | 00:15:17 --> 00:15:28 | that idea, whenever you're looking for setups, whether it be intraday, whether it be on a daily candle, and you are a position trader, and you don't have the |
| 72 | 00:15:28 --> 00:15:33 | ability to get into the lower timeframes, because maybe you're running a business, maybe you're still a student, you're in school, you're in university, |
| 73 | 00:15:34 --> 00:15:41 | or you just can't be in front of the charts, because you have to sleep and your family dynamic doesn't permit you to be able to do intraday trading, you can |
| 74 | 00:15:41 --> 00:15:50 | trade with the opening price, all you have to do is find out what the opening price is. Okay, there's two of them that you can use. One is the opening session |
| 75 | 00:15:51 --> 00:16:03 | in Asia, the opening price, you want to see it trade lower first, ideally, below it. And then when it moves higher, above the opening price, you can be a buyer |
| 76 | 00:16:03 --> 00:16:12 | of strength and use a reasonable stop, you will have to babysit it a little bit. But once you have that position on you just let it go, you don't micromanage it, |
| 77 | 00:16:12 --> 00:16:19 | you don't get scared about every little fluctuation, you don't even look at a lower timeframe and just let it go, you will not get a lot of trade setups, you |
| 78 | 00:16:19 --> 00:16:31 | will get stopped out. But the winds that you have, are a lot longer in duration. And they will make up for the small little single paper cuts that you get along |
| 79 | 00:16:31 --> 00:16:40 | the way. So it's not a matter of necessity for you to trade in lower timeframes, it just means that I like it because as a teacher, it gives me lots of |
| 80 | 00:16:40 --> 00:16:47 | opportunity to teach something that repeats over and over again, and the elements of precision, because these markets are algorithmic, it's not random. |
| 81 | 00:16:48 --> 00:16:57 | You can, you can apply that same logic to higher timeframe charts, like a weekly, a monthly or quarterly chart, you can change this thing to whatever |
| 82 | 00:16:57 --> 00:17:04 | timeframe you want. And there's going to be inefficiencies. And it's one of the exercises and homework assignments I want you to do for this weekend. Look |
| 83 | 00:17:04 --> 00:17:15 | outside the normal timeframes. When we go through things like like the monthly, the weekly, the daily, the four hour, the hourly, 15 minute, five minute, and |
| 84 | 00:17:15 --> 00:17:27 | now one minute, it's been popularized by me. So they're like the main staples. And I used them simply because most of the people that were coming to me as a |
| 85 | 00:17:27 --> 00:17:37 | would be student, they're familiar with that timeframe, it's not, it's not too jarring to ask them to look at things like a 14 minute chart, or a 12 minute |
| 86 | 00:17:37 --> 00:17:48 | chart, or a 35 second chart. Yeah, you have to you have to start manipulating the timeframes a little bit, and you'll see things that aren't necessarily in |
| 87 | 00:17:48 --> 00:17:56 | what everybody else is looking at. Because as the market goes higher, and again, with the premise here that we think that the dollar is going to move higher back |
| 88 | 00:17:56 --> 00:18:03 | into the lower timeframes. And so you're focusing on seven o'clock in the morning, New York local time to nine o'clock in the morning, and that's your, |
| 89 | 00:18:03 --> 00:18:11 | those are your operating hours, you have a two hour workday. And you're bullish, because the weekly chart suggests that the dollar is gonna go higher, that means |
| 90 | 00:18:11 --> 00:18:19 | you're gonna be bearish on Eurodollar, you're gonna be bearish on POUND DOLLAR, you're gonna be bearish on every other currency that has the dollar as the |
| 91 | 00:18:19 --> 00:18:29 | second in its name. We do not trade the dollar index, I don't trade the dollar index. I've never traded the dollar index too thin, but we use it as a |
| 92 | 00:18:29 --> 00:18:44 | barometer. So if we're bullish on dollar, that means it's what is that a risk on or risk off scenario. Risk off. That means all other assets are likely to do |
| 93 | 00:18:44 --> 00:18:58 | what have very, very, very, very difficult time moving higher, it can on a very short term basis. But eventually it will bend the knee and move lower dollar up |
| 94 | 00:18:58 --> 00:19:11 | everything else bends the knee lower dollar down. It allows what risk on risk on allows for, you know, the the commercials that the large entities that come into |
| 95 | 00:19:11 --> 00:19:25 | the industry and buy up big portions of like commodities. It gives us the freedom to trust and confidence to trust that rallies in equities and rallies in |
| 96 | 00:19:25 --> 00:19:34 | foreign currencies are trustworthy. And too little is done in this area for for new traders because they just want to go in and find some kind of pattern, some |
| 97 | 00:19:34 --> 00:19:45 | kind of indicator telling them to do something. And I try to slow you down because while that's part of it, it's the least important thing. That least |
| 98 | 00:19:45 --> 00:20:00 | important factor of timing, because literally you've seen a litany of just this past month live real money trades, smashing it precision and It's no different |
| 99 | 00:20:00 --> 00:20:07 | from when I was showing it with a demo account. It's the same thing. It's the same logic. But if you have this premise in mind that you think the dollar is |
| 100 | 00:20:07 --> 00:20:14 | gonna go higher, it means everything else should go lower. And you have your time window of seven o'clock in the morning to nine o'clock in the morning, New |
| 101 | 00:20:14 --> 00:20:22 | York time, I'm not stating that that should be your time. I'm just using it as an example. I'm speaking hypothetically, okay. You can trade in the afternoon, |
| 102 | 00:20:22 --> 00:20:30 | you can trade the london session, I just don't think that you should be trying to trade the Asian session because there's not enough movement in there. For me |
| 103 | 00:20:30 --> 00:20:43 | to feel confident to say, hey, look, spend your time and hope to be fruitful in that little bit of market action. It's not now sometimes, if there's a like a |
| 104 | 00:20:43 --> 00:20:55 | news driver, and it's coming out maybe in Asia, like an Asian mark, like the Japanese yen, the kiwi, the Australian dollar, because they're their markets are |
| 105 | 00:20:55 --> 00:21:03 | coming online. But the financial day doesn't really technically begin in Wellington. Okay, that's a misnomer. Sorry, Steve, you don't the book you're |
| 106 | 00:21:03 --> 00:21:13 | talking about. But the idea of this new day starting as new is New York midnight. That's where it all starts. That's where it starts. And technically, |
| 107 | 00:21:14 --> 00:21:24 | London is a carryover on the next day where people will say, London is the real start of the day. It's not it's just a carryover of what took place on the |
| 108 | 00:21:24 --> 00:21:33 | previous New York session. That's what these algorithms look at. That's how they refer to it. That's a real mechanism for referring to day to day transactions. |
| 109 | 00:21:34 --> 00:21:42 | But you're hearing things you see people in the industry to have titles, they come out there any talk on CNBC, and because they're on TV, because they're |
| 110 | 00:21:42 --> 00:21:49 | wearing a suit and tie because they have a title underneath their name. And they work for some institution, when they say something, it's believed. But many |
| 111 | 00:21:49 --> 00:21:59 | times this shit that they say doesn't even happen. So I'm, I'm challenging you to think about things differently. And if you have a bias that you think the |
| 112 | 00:21:59 --> 00:22:08 | dollar is going to go higher, that means that your currency or currencies, no more than two, what you're doing too many markets, you're diluting your |
| 113 | 00:22:08 --> 00:22:17 | attention. Because you think the more opportunities of finding a setup in more markets, because I did the same thing when I was 20 years old. I can't miss it. |
| 114 | 00:22:17 --> 00:22:25 | If I'm looking at all these currencies, I got to have 28 pairs because I knew eventually I'm going to find something in a chart, that's somebody that's |
| 115 | 00:22:25 --> 00:22:35 | looking for any excuse to do something, instead of knowing how to trade waiting for the proper setup in a market that is going to have good fit. If you look at |
| 116 | 00:22:35 --> 00:22:43 | the Euro dollar and the POUND DOLLAR, they're closely correlated instruments, those pairs those currencies are closely correlated, that means they usually not |
| 117 | 00:22:43 --> 00:22:51 | always, but they usually move in tandem, they moved the same direction, usually, not all the time, but most of the time. And that's advantageous. And it's |
| 118 | 00:22:51 --> 00:22:59 | usually diametrically opposed from what you see the dollar index do. And that's obviously market theory 101. Everybody should know that. But a lot of people |
| 119 | 00:22:59 --> 00:23:07 | don't when they first come. But if you filtered out the idea that you think dollars higher, are bullish and you want to go higher, |
| 120 | 00:23:08 --> 00:23:15 | you're anticipating sell signals in Euro dollar and you're anticipating sell signals in POUND DOLLAR. And then you can look at the relationships to short |
| 121 | 00:23:15 --> 00:23:27 | term Highs between the euro and pound. And when one of them fail to make a higher high when the other will. That's the SMT divergence. So right away, what |
| 122 | 00:23:27 --> 00:23:37 | I've done is I've shown you how to think about things logically from a higher timeframe. derive a bias where you're only going to operate with the premise |
| 123 | 00:23:37 --> 00:23:47 | that the dollar is going to go higher. And that means Euro dollar and POUND DOLLAR are your tradable instruments. But you're not just simply using one and |
| 124 | 00:23:47 --> 00:23:54 | saying, I'm going to just focus on Europe, that's foolish, you need to look at something that's closely correlated, because you'll see a crack in that |
| 125 | 00:23:54 --> 00:24:05 | correlation. When the euro and POUND DOLLAR let's go into Eurodollar real quick. I always use forex.com Not that that's appropriate you should use but that's |
| 126 | 00:24:05 --> 00:24:18 | that's the data feed I always use. I've been using it ever since I started teaching it. And it's it's dropping into a 15 minute timeframe on Euro. Oh my |
| 127 | 00:24:18 --> 00:24:31 | goodness, he's talking about forex. I know I can hear you joy. He's been boring me with these index futures. Alright, so if like I said the dollar if it's |
| 128 | 00:24:31 --> 00:24:41 | bullish that we think it's going to go higher, then our focus and our premise for executions on Euro dollar and POUND DOLLAR would be on the basis of selling |
| 129 | 00:24:41 --> 00:24:47 | short looking for reasons to anticipate the market going lower. Okay. So when you're looking at Euro |
| 130 | 00:24:54 --> 00:25:04 | all of this is applicable to index futures too. So it's not like it's something different Because if we're looking at s&p, notice that I'm always looking at |
| 131 | 00:25:04 --> 00:25:14 | what I'm looking at at least, s&p and NASDAQ, I'm comparatively studying the relationships of its individual candlesticks delivery, its relative highs is |
| 132 | 00:25:14 --> 00:25:24 | relative lows. How is it behaving? Is it moving in tandem? Or is there a decoupling a decoupling is when the market simply is not moving in a symmetrical |
| 133 | 00:25:24 --> 00:25:36 | manner where all assets are dropping as they should, or moving up as they should. But there is an advantage in knowing and watching closely correlated |
| 134 | 00:25:36 --> 00:25:45 | markets or instruments, because it'll give you a telltale sign like like, like tipping its hand to you saying, Hey, pay attention to this, because this is a |
| 135 | 00:25:45 --> 00:25:53 | false move. And how do you know it's a false move because one of them are not moving to that higher high on a lower timeframe. I kind of show you the second |
| 136 | 00:25:53 --> 00:26:01 | beginning, give me a minute here to lay down some tent stakes here. Because I want you to understand what I'm saying in that way, when you hear me talk about |
| 137 | 00:26:01 --> 00:26:18 | or you hear me or read me tweeting something to the effect that you have to have a setup that you cannot frame that will be opposing your weekly expectation set |
| 138 | 00:26:18 --> 00:26:33 | another way is if you're bearish on the market that you're trying to trade. And the dollar index is bullish. That in itself is the first ingredient if you will, |
| 139 | 00:26:33 --> 00:26:43 | of a symmetrical market that that that must be there, they must be diametrically opposed. If you can't see the market place through that lens initially, you are |
| 140 | 00:26:43 --> 00:26:51 | not in the first stage of high probability. That's just the way it is. I don't care who wrote books, and we make courses and whatnot. That's just the way it |
| 141 | 00:26:51 --> 00:27:02 | is. That in itself is not the entirety of your model. That's not how all of your trading should be based on it just means that that's the first stage. Now, if |
| 142 | 00:27:02 --> 00:27:09 | it's not, if it's not like that if it's not diametrically opposed, does that mean you can't take any trades? No, it just means that you're probably best |
| 143 | 00:27:09 --> 00:27:17 | suited doing scalps intraday, if it doesn't fit your appetite for trading, you simply have to sit on your hands and wait for the marketplace to present the |
| 144 | 00:27:17 --> 00:27:25 | opportunities where the dollar index is likely to move one direction, as opposed to what you would expect in analysis in your Euro dollar, POUND DOLLAR, whatever |
| 145 | 00:27:25 --> 00:27:28 | currency that has the dollar in its name as the secondary. |
| 146 | 00:27:33 --> 00:27:44 | If we have the expectation that the currencies or the currency that you're trying to trade is bearish, you do not want to be able to look at that and see |
| 147 | 00:27:44 --> 00:27:52 | something that would be bullish. If you can frame the idea that, yeah, I could see a buy signal, I could take a bio on that because of this, not impulsively, |
| 148 | 00:27:52 --> 00:28:01 | not because your elbow hurt the last time the Euro dollar went up. So therefore now it's hurting today, you're going to try to buy that that's nonsense. There |
| 149 | 00:28:01 --> 00:28:14 | has to be some kind of argument that can be framed logically as to why the market should go higher or lower. If you can be outlined through the mechanisms |
| 150 | 00:28:14 --> 00:28:23 | that you use for trading, if you can see both sides of the expression in terms of buying or selling short, and the instrument that you'd like to track. You're |
| 151 | 00:28:23 --> 00:28:34 | not in high probability. So there's two ingredients right there for high probability trading. If you're if you're an index trader. And you think that |
| 152 | 00:28:34 --> 00:28:44 | obviously that we are in a risk off scenario, that means dollars higher, we have to anticipate the likelihood that rallies in indices are suspect, that means |
| 153 | 00:28:44 --> 00:28:53 | that they're not technically sound, they're going up there for a reason, what are they going up there for, to reprise to an inefficiency. Or it's going up |
| 154 | 00:28:53 --> 00:29:02 | there to run by stops. They're the only two reasons why markets go up. That's it. That's all there is, folks. There's nothing else going on. There's no animal |
| 155 | 00:29:02 --> 00:29:14 | patterns behind it. Wycoff is not there. Supply and demand is not there. It's going up there to gauge new sentiment, drag them in either here or disrupt the |
| 156 | 00:29:14 --> 00:29:24 | present sentiment in the marketplace. And it's all based on liquidity, either creating the liquidity or removing it and unseating those individuals that are |
| 157 | 00:29:24 --> 00:29:34 | in the market and then taking their position over so that way the market can then reprice for them, not you know, it's rigged. And you can be mad about that |
| 158 | 00:29:34 --> 00:29:41 | you can get scared about that and think, you know, nobody can ever beat this. Nobody ever can be consistent with it. And that's rubbish because you see my |
| 159 | 00:29:41 --> 00:29:49 | students all over the world now doing it. It's transferable knowledge. And the things that I'm teaching people are seeing it and they can see it repeat over |
| 160 | 00:29:49 --> 00:30:03 | and over again. And as long as there's a marketplace, as long as trading is accessible to us, it will not ever stop working. So don't worry about it. If we |
| 161 | 00:30:03 --> 00:30:14 | can't trade in, in the cut the markets away from us and say, No, you can't trade this. And I can't imagine what starts that. But in the event that ever happened, |
| 162 | 00:30:14 --> 00:30:23 | whether it be temporary or you something else on a longer term basis, that will be the only thing that would cause me to say, Okay, it's done. There's nothing |
| 163 | 00:30:23 --> 00:30:35 | we do now. So, it takes a Mad Max scenario for something like that, I believe. So I don't consider all that much or worry about it. But in the beginning, |
| 164 | 00:30:35 --> 00:30:41 | because you find this, and you get excited about how the opportunities are presented to you, and you see them in your own chart, and you think, wow, I |
| 165 | 00:30:41 --> 00:30:49 | could do this, you know, I can put my own money in here and eventually grow to this, or I can get a funded account and grow up to that, and I can make my ends |
| 166 | 00:30:49 --> 00:30:56 | meet. And all of a sudden, you start thinking about what if, what if, what if it stops working? What if it doesn't start working and all the time, your energy, |
| 167 | 00:30:56 --> 00:31:08 | you're wasting thinking about all that stuff is being drained. So you don't want setups that you can frame on both sides of the marketplace. So if you're |
| 168 | 00:31:08 --> 00:31:18 | bearish, it should be next to impossible for you to see any reason for it to go higher, no justification for it to go higher, no justification for it to pause. |
| 169 | 00:31:19 --> 00:31:32 | And when you trade in those conditions, that is a low resistance liquidity run, that means the market will move like a hot knife through butter, just smooth, |
| 170 | 00:31:32 --> 00:31:42 | buttery. That is exactly what you want in your trade, you don't want to be in a trade, that when you get in it, it's this spending a lot of times is hanging |
| 171 | 00:31:42 --> 00:31:55 | around your entry. If you look at the executions I share, they're like dynamic. Like they when that execution is done, it spends very little time around where I |
| 172 | 00:31:55 --> 00:32:05 | entered, and rarely ever moves towards my stop. Now you've seen me I've been stopped out and went back and did what I wanted to do in reengaged it i excuted |
| 173 | 00:32:05 --> 00:32:14 | that it was live accounts, real money. And people tend to believe that you those things don't exist here on this channel or my Twitter, like I'm trading with |
| 174 | 00:32:14 --> 00:32:28 | real money folks, I've taught for a long, long time in demo. But I'm about to depart from all of you in November on the 11th. And I promised you that you |
| 175 | 00:32:28 --> 00:32:42 | would see real money, real money executions, and you're seeing it the idea of you getting to the point of trading with real money, it's going to require you |
| 176 | 00:32:42 --> 00:32:49 | to do a lot of things that are in the making or feel very boring. But that's exactly what you want it to be you want it to be boring, your job pays you your |
| 177 | 00:32:49 --> 00:32:58 | wage, when you go there and you do the job. You want your trading to be the same way. You don't want it to be an elevated and emotional, you know psychedelic |
| 178 | 00:32:58 --> 00:33:06 | event where you you're tripping out on goof balls, because you're either making a lot of money and you'd expect it to move that way or you're losing a lot of |
| 179 | 00:33:06 --> 00:33:20 | money. A theory it's the news embargo, lifting selling, you see the displacement here lower. It's going to limit minute chart. |
| 180 | 00:33:27 --> 00:33:38 | So if you can't see reasons for it to go against your weekly bias, if you wanted to see lower prices, or if you're bullish, okay, you want to see it go higher, |
| 181 | 00:33:38 --> 00:33:48 | you don't want to see anything that would be argumentative, or reasons for you to doubt the setup. And because you're most of the time is a brand new trader or |
| 182 | 00:33:48 --> 00:34:00 | undisciplined. You don't have the ability to sit still in demand that the market creates and presents those opportunities where it's so one sided. It's so one |
| 183 | 00:34:00 --> 00:34:09 | sided, that you cannot not see it doing what you expect it to do. Versus as a brand new student, or someone that just maybe watches my video for the first |
| 184 | 00:34:09 --> 00:34:15 | time they think, Oh, I got this, this is a fair value gap. I'm just gonna go out there and find the very first fair value get that I see on the chart and just |
| 185 | 00:34:15 --> 00:34:22 | indiscriminately go out there and just trade that not knowing what to anticipate what to see what to think of the market if it does something that would be |
| 186 | 00:34:22 --> 00:34:30 | contrary to what you expect it to do. Is it the right time of the day to trade just because you sit down from the charts doesn't mean it's it's the right time, |
| 187 | 00:34:30 --> 00:34:41 | the fair value got it needs to be engaged at the time of the day, even if it's been traded to before. That's real important. I'll say it again. A fair value |
| 188 | 00:34:41 --> 00:34:51 | gap doesn't need to be the first visit doesn't just have to be a virgin level or to use a borrow a term from supply and demand because I'm subscribed that |
| 189 | 00:34:51 --> 00:35:05 | bullshit a fresh fair value cap. Okay, that is not something that is a thing It doesn't matter, because the algorithm when it sees inefficiencies, it'll revisit |
| 190 | 00:35:05 --> 00:35:15 | them again. I've I've taught this, as I've mentioned many times when people say I'm, I'm regurgitating, or teaching what Chris Laurie taught me, Chris Lord come |
| 191 | 00:35:15 --> 00:35:27 | out on public on Twitter and say, No, it's not his stuff. So I get it, the team mentality thing that you want to be able to say that this stuff can't be |
| 192 | 00:35:27 --> 00:35:38 | revolutionary. It can't be, you know, something new and trailblazing, but it has been. But it takes a lot of time to learn it. And unfortunately, you know, when |
| 193 | 00:35:38 --> 00:35:45 | you first start, you're, you're impatient, like I was, when I was 20, I was very impatient. I wanted things to happen real fast for me, because I didn't like |
| 194 | 00:35:45 --> 00:35:56 | where I was financially, I wanted to make changes, significant changes, like real quick. And I had long term goals that I was willing to subscribe to, which |
| 195 | 00:35:56 --> 00:36:04 | was, if I can make 1000 hours a month, I can retire at 40 years old. So I had a 20 year plan. Contrast that with what you're thinking about trading, when you go |
| 196 | 00:36:04 --> 00:36:17 | to these IML bullshit things where they try to teach you how to get rich overnight. Lambo lifestyle, you know, it doesn't, it doesn't compute. It sets |
| 197 | 00:36:17 --> 00:36:25 | you up for failure, because the only way you're going to anticipate success is if it happens to you fast. And if it takes a little bit more effort, you feel |
| 198 | 00:36:25 --> 00:36:33 | defeated, you feel like you're being held back. And then that emotional stimuli, that you're creating it within yourself, because you've been sold the idea |
| 199 | 00:36:33 --> 00:36:42 | falsely, fraudulently, that it should happen very quickly and easily. Because you went and you watched some videos, or you went to some kind of workshop, or |
| 200 | 00:36:42 --> 00:36:50 | you bought a software program that's supposed to tell you, it ematic entry points that fucking cause maximum drawdown by the user that created it on live |
| 201 | 00:36:50 --> 00:37:03 | streams, every time they try to do it. All these things are going to be barriers for you in the beginning. And I try to be as practical as an educator as I can. |
| 202 | 00:37:04 --> 00:37:13 | And I don't sugarcoat it, I could come out here and say, everything I'm teaching is this, this, this, this, this and never tell you, the adversities, it's going |
| 203 | 00:37:13 --> 00:37:21 | to cause you. But I tell you, there's adversities, but you put your fingers in your ears, and you say I talk too much. But you need to know those things. |
| 204 | 00:37:21 --> 00:37:31 | Because if you don't know what they are, you won't know how to deal with them. When you're by yourself, with your phone, at work, during your smoke break, or |
| 205 | 00:37:31 --> 00:37:39 | in the bathroom, trying to put on a scalp, trying to make a little bit of money, to get yourself through the day, a little emotional, psychological bump to feel |
| 206 | 00:37:39 --> 00:37:46 | good about yourself, because you hate your job. I've been there before I know what that feels like. I know exactly what that feels like. But there's a wrong |
| 207 | 00:37:46 --> 00:37:56 | and the right way to do it. And I try very hard to try to communicate the things that you're probably going to make the errors in doing. So that way your your |
| 208 | 00:37:56 --> 00:38:04 | mind is prepared to seize that moment and say, no, no, no, that's the thing that I said, I'm probably going to make an error doing that or thinking this way. And |
| 209 | 00:38:04 --> 00:38:16 | it's going to lead to adverse results, that results that you don't want. You want to see things objectively, and you want to see them in a balanced manner |
| 210 | 00:38:16 --> 00:38:26 | where you're not impulsively forcing your will in the marketplace, you have to be willing to accept the fact that you're probably going to do it wrong. In the |
| 211 | 00:38:26 --> 00:38:32 | beginning, you're going to do it wrong a lot. And those are opportunities not to shy away from or pretending didn't exist, there are opportunities to shine a |
| 212 | 00:38:32 --> 00:38:39 | light on the very things that you need more work on, and you're trying to rush through because you either see me or other students of mine other people that do |
| 213 | 00:38:39 --> 00:38:48 | things that may not even be true, may not be real money. They may not have even done those things. People take my videos, if I forget to put a watermark on it. |
| 214 | 00:38:48 --> 00:38:59 | They're out there selling the stuff on Instagram like they did the trade. You have to be guarded. And that's why I tell everybody don't take my word for |
| 215 | 00:38:59 --> 00:39:08 | anything. If I tell you something, go into the charts and see if it's there. That's why I do everything I do on Twitter. It's time and date stamped. Why |
| 216 | 00:39:08 --> 00:39:19 | point to something it's there. Everybody sees it fit doesn't everybody's seen it. But you have to be willing to accept the fact in the beginning, that you |
| 217 | 00:39:19 --> 00:39:25 | have to grow in your understanding, you have to understand that there's going to be things that are going to feel like it should be easy for you to figure out |
| 218 | 00:39:25 --> 00:39:34 | and learn real quickly. But then once you start looking at these candles, and it's real time live and you don't know what's going to happen over here in this |
| 219 | 00:39:34 --> 00:39:46 | empty space on the right hand side. It becomes scary. That uncertainty becomes paralyzing. And you're afraid to do something because you haven't spent enough |
| 220 | 00:39:46 --> 00:39:55 | time looking at all the stuff over here that tends to repeat at a specific time of day, and a specific characteristic and manner of delivery. These things |
| 221 | 00:39:55 --> 00:40:06 | repeat over and over and over again. They're subtle little differences. But overall, they can be recognized. And that time of recognition is going to be |
| 222 | 00:40:06 --> 00:40:16 | dependent on how much time you spend studying old moves, and capturing them and journaling them, and filling in the empty spaces around it with annotations and |
| 223 | 00:40:16 --> 00:40:24 | observations that you're making. And it's okay to put in questions in here in the beginning, like, I want to focus on why this tends to happen in the |
| 224 | 00:40:24 --> 00:40:33 | marketplace, I see it happening. And I want to learn more not I don't know what's going on. This is always confusing. It's, it's self defeating. It causes |
| 225 | 00:40:33 --> 00:40:44 | an SOS chaotic doubt, you don't want that in your journal, you want your journal to be this biggest cheerleading session that like the biggest fan of your work |
| 226 | 00:40:44 --> 00:40:57 | is writing that journal. And you're feeding that mental candy, if you will, to encourage your future self. Because this is hard, folks, this is very, very |
| 227 | 00:40:57 --> 00:41:06 | hard. And if you let it beat you down, because you don't have a plan, you don't have a strategy, you don't have a study routine, you don't have a model to work |
| 228 | 00:41:06 --> 00:41:15 | with a framework or a structure to which you go in and you look at it, of course, you're going to get frustrated, of course, you're going to feel like it |
| 229 | 00:41:15 --> 00:41:22 | doesn't work for you, of course, it's going to feel like you aren't keeping up with the rest of us. But every single one of my students that are almost |
| 230 | 00:41:22 --> 00:41:34 | millionaires now, and I'm saying that with an M, millionaires, not with them, though. They all got there. By doing the things I'm telling them to do, and |
| 231 | 00:41:34 --> 00:41:45 | avoiding things that tell them not to do and limiting what they take from my repertoire. There's an arsenal of things and tools that I've taught. And I've |
| 232 | 00:41:45 --> 00:41:51 | given you a language, look at the marketplace and say okay, this is what I see in price. I like this fluctuation between this point and that point, it tends to |
| 233 | 00:41:51 --> 00:42:01 | happen that this time of day in this particular market that I like trading, I have an affinity for this setup. That is your model. Don't chase anything new |
| 234 | 00:42:01 --> 00:42:08 | that I put out. I don't care how much money I make with it with a live account. I don't care how much money my son makes. I don't care how much anything that |
| 235 | 00:42:08 --> 00:42:21 | anybody else does with my stuff. That is not something that you should do. That is a trap. It's a trap. Oh, it's doing like a child. If you if you saw a video |
| 236 | 00:42:21 --> 00:42:30 | actually, it was really interesting. There's a little boy who's sitting at a desk, okay, and an adult put down a stack of money. I don't know the |
| 237 | 00:42:30 --> 00:42:38 | denomination how much it was, but it was it. Obviously, if it was placed in front of you, you'd snatch it out real quick. And then they put like a a piece |
| 238 | 00:42:38 --> 00:42:45 | of candy or two or something like or cookie. So it was it was a cookie to cookies or something that and then it was money piled up right next to the |
| 239 | 00:42:45 --> 00:42:57 | little boy. And he said Which one do you want, he went right to the cookie. Oh, that's, that's what you're doing. That's what's you're doing, you're rushing to |
| 240 | 00:42:57 --> 00:43:06 | get that sugar high that that junk food idea of getting in on something you'd barely know how to do. Because you want to get the feel good moment. And you're |
| 241 | 00:43:06 --> 00:43:15 | avoiding the logic. They let you pick up the money that's laying right there every single day. Every single day, these markets are laying out the opportunity |
| 242 | 00:43:15 --> 00:43:16 | for you to make your ends meet. |
| 243 | 00:43:18 --> 00:43:26 | But you're looking for that sugar, that sugar rush of getting in there and doing something because you want to be able to either gloat on social media, or tell |
| 244 | 00:43:26 --> 00:43:33 | your spouse look it's it's not me wasting my time. Look, I'm looking all these charts. I'm listening this asshole talk about things on the marketplace on |
| 245 | 00:43:33 --> 00:43:43 | YouTube and Twitter spaces. And it's worth something now because look. I get it folks. Trust me, I get it. I have a wife that still thinks this is all video |
| 246 | 00:43:43 --> 00:43:55 | games. And you saw this morning where I live is a lot of balancing acts that have to be done. As a trader, it's not an easy lifestyle. You have to be |
| 247 | 00:43:55 --> 00:44:06 | prepared mentally for it. And your setups need to be in a way where you cannot argue it. If you can see both sides of the equation, being long or going long at |
| 248 | 00:44:06 --> 00:44:15 | the time and you want to be short. That's a trade you should not take and be comfortable not taking it. What happens if it runs and it moves 200 pips for |
| 249 | 00:44:15 --> 00:44:30 | you, or 500 handles and the circuit breakers Come on, okay for the stock index futures. So what, that's one event in your life as a trader, that's one event. I |
| 250 | 00:44:30 --> 00:44:43 | was stuck in the marketplace on September 11 2001. I was stuck in it. I couldn't get out. And I lost when the market reopened. That should have in many other |
| 251 | 00:44:43 --> 00:44:50 | people's eyes in mind would have been That's it. I'm never trading again. Because you could do that again. You could live in that fear and in your |
| 252 | 00:44:50 --> 00:45:00 | lifetime. I'm telling you in your lifetime, within the next 24 months we're going to see trading halted. Something's going to happen. Somebody Big event |
| 253 | 00:45:00 --> 00:45:10 | that's gonna cause trading to be halted, and it's gonna cause you all that are inexperienced to lose your mind. And then when the market does eventually start |
| 254 | 00:45:10 --> 00:45:19 | back up again, you're gonna go through years of thinking that might happen again, like it did mean, like everybody else that was trading back then it's |
| 255 | 00:45:20 --> 00:45:30 | disruptive. But you have to have the expectation of, you're going to have adversities in this, you're going to be met with real risk. That's why you |
| 256 | 00:45:30 --> 00:45:37 | shouldn't overlap, which is why you should be using a stop loss. That's why you should have a model, you should be looking at one or two closely correlated |
| 257 | 00:45:37 --> 00:45:48 | markets at maximum. Do your due diligence and focus and limit your focus to what it is that you're risking money behind, or placing the emphasis on trading in |
| 258 | 00:45:48 --> 00:45:56 | either a demo, or paper trading or tape reading event, that you're not trying to go into make the maximum amount of money, if you're studying with the |
| 259 | 00:45:56 --> 00:46:05 | expectation that this is how much money I could have earned and isn't the maximum of it, you're doing it wrong, you're going after the cookie, instead of |
| 260 | 00:46:05 --> 00:46:17 | picking up the money. You're trying to get all of this emotional and psychological reward from something that can come from look, look at the look at |
| 261 | 00:46:17 --> 00:46:32 | the response that my son has had. One, one contract, one single micro contract. And the boys made almost $2,000. He hasn't taken any trades yet, since the last |
| 262 | 00:46:32 --> 00:46:42 | time I updated y'all, because he's waiting for his pay up. So hopefully that'll be resolved today or tomorrow. And it wasn't anything that tops that did |
| 263 | 00:46:42 --> 00:46:51 | nefariously it was the fact that the deal company that usually they repeat, I guess paint through, there was an issue because one of the funded account |
| 264 | 00:46:51 --> 00:47:00 | companies out there got snagged by the CFTC. And deal got tapped on that. So they didn't want to do business with funding account firms anymore. So the money |
| 265 | 00:47:00 --> 00:47:12 | I guess will be paid through a standard wire transfer. I don't know. But he did the paperwork on it. But look at the results of one contract, doing one setup, |
| 266 | 00:47:12 --> 00:47:26 | trying to get 10 handles or or tender 15 risking 12 handles. Is that a lot? No. But did you make $2,000 in the last week, doing whatever the hell you were |
| 267 | 00:47:26 --> 00:47:38 | trying to do? Have you had 100% strike rate every single day a winning day that you traded? How about that? What's what's different? Oh, well, it's because it's |
| 268 | 00:47:38 --> 00:47:54 | ICT son. Oh, it's ICT. It's ICT you know, of course it's ICT either on a fraud I can't trade or I'm doing what? getting lucky. Now it's my son. He's using logic |
| 269 | 00:47:54 --> 00:48:06 | he failed and floundered. Doing it his own way. He tried to do it his own way, impulsively. Oh, it's like a video game. It's like a video game that it's going |
| 270 | 00:48:06 --> 00:48:19 | to be easy for me. Without logic, trying to trade with 15 contracts on $150,000 combine and failed and failed and failed and failed and failed and failed and |
| 271 | 00:48:19 --> 00:48:34 | failed and failed. got frustrated wanting to quit, hated it. That isn't simple logic. Go for singles. As soon as you get it, you stop you don't go back in |
| 272 | 00:48:34 --> 00:48:44 | again. Because the times that he did make money, he didn't die in satisfaction in that he wanted to go back in and get more because that sugar rush that cookie |
| 273 | 00:48:44 --> 00:48:55 | mentality. Boy would be making 3000 $4,000 $5,000 on a trade that he was over leveraged on. He got the he ran through hell before the devil realized he was |
| 274 | 00:48:55 --> 00:49:08 | there. When he want to go back in again, and tap dance in front of them and then wonder why he's like his pitch organs as you have to be dialed in, you have to |
| 275 | 00:49:08 --> 00:49:17 | know what you're looking for. You have to know why you're trading have realistic targets when you hit them stop. Over time, he will gravitate towards becoming a |
| 276 | 00:49:17 --> 00:49:28 | 20 to 25 handle trader. Then eventually he'll be looking for 30 to 50 handles and then he'll be doing 100 handles and he'll be doing far less trading. My |
| 277 | 00:49:28 --> 00:49:35 | intentions is not for him to be trading every single day. My intention is for you as a student is not to trade every single day. And that sounds shocking, |
| 278 | 00:49:35 --> 00:49:47 | doesn't it? What do you mean how am I going to make money doing that? You can make a lot of money doing three trades a month and then enjoying your life. Day |
| 279 | 00:49:47 --> 00:49:57 | trading is not everyday trading. And many of you think that just because the markets are open, it's time for you to sit down, pull the slot machine arm down |
| 280 | 00:49:57 --> 00:50:07 | and see what happens and then You find out that you didn't like the outcome. But anyway, I thought I was on Twitter for a second thing I did a Twitter space, I |
| 281 | 00:50:07 --> 00:50:13 | apologize up or two socks off of you. But look at the Euro here versus the pound, we'll look at that real quick. And I want to close this session because I |
| 282 | 00:50:13 --> 00:50:29 | want to get ready for my own trading day here. Here's the pound. Okay. Now, if you look at what this move here has done, I ignore this wick. Whereas the bodies |
| 283 | 00:50:29 --> 00:50:40 | to the right of it here. And here. So these are relatively equal lows, I would expect the market to want to eventually at least sweep below this one. I would |
| 284 | 00:50:40 --> 00:50:50 | want to see that. Now does it mean it happens this morning, might not. But I would look for a setup that would warrant that type of move. And then how we |
| 285 | 00:50:50 --> 00:50:57 | trade below that low. In other words, it will look like this on my chart. I'm viewing that barrier right there. You can see we came right down to here and it |
| 286 | 00:50:57 --> 00:51:09 | stopped. To me, I liked seeing this because it gives the idea that it builds in retail, oh, this is support. Look, see it's doing this. And this is where |
| 287 | 00:51:09 --> 00:51:17 | buyside is up here. So it would not be a terrible thing for me intensive spate price running all the way up here disrupting the buy stops. Because if I want to |
| 288 | 00:51:17 --> 00:51:26 | be short, and I'm not sure right now, it'd be wonderful to get a short above here, then ride down below here, here and then keep on going lower, longer term. |
| 289 | 00:51:27 --> 00:51:38 | But we're on the heels of a Fed day. And it's the morning session. So what do we do? Sit still sit still. But what happens if it runs? Michael, you missed it. |
| 290 | 00:51:38 --> 00:51:46 | You can cuss me out later on. But over the career of your trading, that one event just like September 11 was a bad thing for me for several days, I couldn't |
| 291 | 00:51:46 --> 00:51:54 | get out. And when they open that pitch up, I was down a lot of money. There was no way to get out of it. There was no way to get out nobody could get out of |
| 292 | 00:51:54 --> 00:52:07 | their trade period. That's, that's a scary feeling. That's risk. That's what these markets could end up doing to you eventually, in the currencies, we will |
| 293 | 00:52:07 --> 00:52:13 | see this is why I'm not trading Forex. Okay, I get questioned why are you talking about futures all the time? Why is your trading Forex anymore. There was |
| 294 | 00:52:13 --> 00:52:25 | a deep pegging between euro and Swissy years ago. Look at your charts, many brokerage firms, many institutions actually went bankrupt. We're going to see |
| 295 | 00:52:25 --> 00:52:34 | that again. I don't know where or what currency is going to do it on. There might be multiple ones. But that's where we're at folks. So if you're in here |
| 296 | 00:52:34 --> 00:52:42 | trying to do these crazy leverage trades. And if you happen to be in a day where that decoupling happens, something's going to happen. All the central bank, |
| 297 | 00:52:42 --> 00:52:51 | digital currencies that are coming, all these things, you think crypto is going to save your assets not. We're getting ready to see the biggest wealth transfer |
| 298 | 00:52:51 --> 00:53:00 | in history. And it's going to be so abrupt, so sudden, I don't know when it's coming. I just know we're in that season. And I'm not trying to be in |
| 299 | 00:53:00 --> 00:53:07 | currencies. I'm not trying to be there, folks. You're welcome to do that. You want to do and you want to make money doing it. It's wonderful. Wish you luck. |
| 300 | 00:53:07 --> 00:53:14 | God bless you. But I'm sticking to a market I started with which is commodities that's futures. They're real markets, currencies, they're |
| 301 | 00:53:14 --> 00:53:24 | all Fiat. So as crypto, it's imaginary, okay, that's not real money. It's all fake. It's illusionary. It's, it's not really there. It's whatever the perceived |
| 302 | 00:53:24 --> 00:53:38 | value is. A commodity is a real tangible thing. Wheat is a real thing you can consume it gold is a real thing. Oil is a real thing. I'm back in the markets I |
| 303 | 00:53:38 --> 00:53:49 | started with in 1992. So I'm back in the real world, in the real markets. And that's why these markets like index futures, trade better than Forex. They're |
| 304 | 00:53:49 --> 00:53:58 | much more precise, because they're a gentleman's market. They're not a cowboy, reckless rebel, that does wild things and brokers can screw you with the spread. |
| 305 | 00:53:59 --> 00:54:14 | So maybe I didn't tell you anything this morning that was useful to you. I would have liked to heard what I said today. If I was a new student, new trader, I |
| 306 | 00:54:14 --> 00:54:16 | would like to know these things and think like this |
| 307 | 00:54:24 --> 00:54:33 | expect the market to want to do a run below this low on NASDAQ and dig into this level. Now here. That's my perspective going forward. I'm gonna be trading with |
| 308 | 00:54:33 --> 00:54:39 | that idea going forward as well. Talk to you next time. Be safe. |