ICT YT - 2023-09-12 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - NQ Algorithmic Price Delivery September 12 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-09-14 09:54
Outline
01:11 - Intro to the London session.
- Live stream for the London session, trying to get himself acclimated to action from yesterday and today, and how to build a narrative bias.
- Vinay gives a heads up of the stream.
02:30 - A bearish order block on London.
- Looking at the 15 minute timeframe as a first go to see where the liquidity is, buy side liquidity above and below short term highs.
- The silver bullet for london session.
- The two levels of interest in the chart, the high and the low, and the 50% in the upper quadrant.
- The five-minute chart and the 15 minute chart.
- Bounce range is when a market moves from a range where it is offered both sides, buy side and sell side delivery, not liquidity delivery.
- Isis reversal type pattern.
09:03 - Taking the other levels of leverage.
- The five minute premium/fair value gap is a very strong fair value gap. It is inside the context of a balanced range, but it does not mean that it won't be taken a trade with maximum leverage.
- The difference between this one and this one is that it doesn't have a balanced price range.
12:13 - Understanding the premium to discount liquidity gap.
- The five minute fair value gap is a premium relative to the fact that there is a 15 minute discount to the 15 minute time frame.
- The breaker is a discount, so there is inefficiency between the breaker and the price of the market.
- The five minute premium, fair value gap and the 15 minute bearish order block in the five minute chart.
- The high, low, low and high of the candle.
- If it's the first time you've watched anything like this, it's going to seem very confusing, but it's easier to understand than anything else out there.
- If someone steps out there and starts putting major size down and tries to put billions of dollars on that one touch of that level.
19:15 - Buying a breakout and buying stops.
- Why buying a breakout in London is a mistake, and what the market is waiting for in the morning in New York.
- The London session begins at 3am local time.
- Initial, the sell side resting rate is below here, which is a bearish breaker, but the level needs to be annotated.
- The market wants to go back down through between the candles.
22:35 - How to use indicators to predict price action.
- Markets don't use moving average crossovers, and there's no subtle way of telling you what the market is going to do next.
- There are simple dynamics that the market must behave in. The market has elements that it has to abide by, and it has no bearing on an indicator.
- Goldman Sachs is 100% algorithmically delivered, unless there is manual intervention, the real market makers are the real traders, not just market makers.
- It's about what you are making money with and not losing very much money. That's all this is about.
28:08 - How to look for inefficiency.
- What happens inside this down close candle is what happens inside a short term high formed. There's a short-term high listed right above that.
- How to look for inefficiencies.
- Harmonic mo patterns that have no rhyme or reason for why the market is going to move, mythologies. The market does not care about the pattern.
- The five minute premium for vega
31:37 - The short term low inefficiency.
- When the market breaks below the short term low, look at the five minute chart and see if there is anything inside this five minute breaker low.
- Drilling down to the lower timeframe, drop down to a one minute chart, and be a little more detail before doing it.
- Going short door in London is fine using the things in the chart, but these levels are framed on a five minute timeframe discount by sanibel saul on efficiency.
- The five minute breaker is what is being referred to as the bearish breaker for the one minute chart.
37:26 - A bearish order block is not a zone.
- The bearish order block is not a supply and demand zone. The markets are 100% controlled, and you should not be fearful.
- The importance of knowing how to book books.
- You want to do it where you are taking very little losses in learning from them. You want to learn with real money.
- Two things going on on the one minute chart.
41:01 - Price runs are not trends.
- When the price is in a sell-side delivery run, the macro begins seeking lower sell side liquidity and aiming for lowersell side liquidity.
- When the market creates a up close candle.
- The silver bullet every single day happens between 3-4 o'clock and 4 o' clock, between 10:30 a.m and 2:30 p.m.
- The one minute chart is the truth.
- The up close candle is in the premium side of the new day opening gap, and is in what portion of that range.
- Once it goes down to the down close candle, it's going to trade back to the premium end of that level.
47:24 - Investigate and exploit an edge.
- If there is an edge that can be exploited over and over again, that is an invitation to sit at the table.
- The five minute breaker and inversion fair value.
- ICI bears silver bullet. Silver bullet is going to be there every day if you don't know how to read the tape.
- The silver bullet is in sell-side delivery.
51:28 - Backtesting the market.
- High frequency trading algorithms are firing in short orders and overwhelm the market with short orders.
- The entity that is referred to as smart money is not writing books.
- Positive self-talk is creating a pseudo experience, which is far better than using something like a market replay report.
- The safest way to acquire experience is through journaling, and it becomes a powerful resource, where you tap into seeing these things repeating all the time.
- Trading with the least amount of leverage in a market that is ripe for a black swan event, which means something that is going to tear the shit out of the market.
- The one minute and five minute chart should act as real resistance.
58:03 - The reality of the market.
- Goldman Sachs is a top tier brokerage. They're invited to come over to twitter and go on a live stream and run circles around their ass.
- The five minute fair value gap, where the lower half of an inefficiency gap needs to stay open.
01:00:36 - Exhausting gaps and measuring gaps.
- Exhausting gaps are when a trader is never satisfied with their actions. He wants the same level of precision and trust for his exits that he has for his entries.
- The human element in him will create them. He is bipolar and sometimes has a manic episode.
- Struggling with mental disorder, real concerns for family, friends and well-being, and real money at risk.
- Several factors, including the likelihood of continuation going lower, and the red level.
- If a trade is going up, it would be extremely critical for it to aggressively reject that and go a lot harder lower. If it is meandering around and not willing to go aggressively lower after going into the high end of this level.
- If it moves in favor, it will eat up more profits.
01:07:07 - The fibonacci level and Fibonacci levels.
- From this candles low to this candles high 50% level, and then 25% for the fibonacci level.
- The measurement from the scandals low to that candles high.
- Why the market is going to go there and what time it will go there, and why it's gonna go there.
- How the market needs to start dropping aggressively once it gets to the lower quadrant of the chart, and when it does.
01:11:36 - Mechanics of managing a trade.
- Trading is algorithmic, and the mechanics behind how to manage a trade, risk, anticipate and forecast future delivery, and how you manage yourself psychologically, emotionally and psychologically.
- How hard it is for a trader to learn how to trade in the morning.
- We use the sell side liquidity pool from premium to discount to avoid inefficiency.
- The half way point is the implied dealing range, which is the range that is used in initially if the market is creating inefficiencies in here.
01:18:08 - How do you know when to sell out?
- Chris talks about his core content and how he's not hiding anything from his audience. He's laid it out there on a silver platter begging them to prove him wrong.
- Chris has a $5 million us dollar bounty. Find his stuff in print and video. It didn't exist before 1996.
01:21:11 - The negative 2.5 standard deviation.
- You have to have patience in the beginning of the week. The strong survive here, the weak survive here.
- The negative 2.5 standard deviation level is where the inception of the move began right here, and the fulcrum point is right there.
- If that scares you, if it shakes your whole foundation and belief structure, let it happen. Let it happen, because it's advantageous for you to accept the fact that this is the way it is, it's an advantage to know that it's rigged.
- Negative standard deviation 2.5 is a good level.
01:26:27 - Best case scenario for me.
- The best case scenario for me today is to trade at that level and see how the market reacts to that level of price.
- The 15 minute discount rate.
01:29:05 - How to trade the market with speed and distance.
- Paul wants to see speed and distance that will occur right below that low, and aggressively accelerate right down in there.
- Paul is in and is running the whole show.
- The level of focus required to be able to trade with a notepad, and why it is extremely annoying to have it on the chart.
- How to use the ticker tape on the bottom of CNBC every 10 minutes to trade off the price.
- Inversion of Federica before inversion of the stream to test yourself and see how the chart shows what it should be.
- Nasdaq traded with the September delivery contract for 2023.
01:35:37 - The daily chart of price action.
- The only inefficiency above yesterday was the area in the chart.
- The daily chart is the higher level, so it's likely to draw back down into that level.
- The team is doing a video conference with the doctors on Wednesday to see if there is a need for further consolidation.
- Patrick whelan's live stream of the meeting.
01:39:00 - Efficiency high vs. efficiency low.
- Efficient delivery of one candle to another. One single delivery of upside or side delivery on that one candle.
- Deferred redelivery vs immediate rebalance, a fair value gap.
- Immediate rebounds are one of the strongest, strongest time-to-market indicators. The next one will be the next one.
- The public sentiment indicator is a great way to know when to take risks.
- Real people's opinions sharing what they think the market is going to do at that very moment when looking at the market.
- The inefficiency on the hourly chart.
01:45:52 - What was on the menu for yesterday?
- What was on the menu for yesterday, the market traded up aggressively, took by stops, and traded aggressively below the short-term low.
- What the market was talking about today.
- How to trade back down to a daily high, and what would be residing below those lows on the sell side.
- How the market is rigged and it goes up to allow people that are in the know to be part of the club that you're not a part of.
01:49:36 - The 15 minute timeframe for a bearish market.
- If the markets are going up and down, is it going to some random level, or if they are bearish, they are going to trade above or below the halfway point.
- The 15 minute timeframe is about acrobatics, but it's good medicine and exercise.
- The next one is a one minute chart, where the candle stays below and outside of the city on the 15th and timeframe.
- The opening range gap is the easiest low hanging fruit.
- The average person is uninformed and has no ability to read price properly. Most times at a time when he is highly favoring a lower price, you are getting the perfect scenario of when smart money is going to operate.
- The opening range gap is where the previous day closed at 415.
01:57:05 - Opening range gaps and when they close.
- The market will gravitate back to the opening bell for equities, so it is likely that the market will want to gravitate to that.
- The opening range gaps.
- Opening range gaps are highly impactful to action and the levels are extremely precise. They are not random, they're not zones. They're very specific levels.
- Expiration date of 60 days.
02:00:44 - The electronic trading hours chart.
- The regular trading hours chart is going to be changed back to talk about electronic trading.
- The low of the candle on the one minute chart is 15,414.75.
- The change in the state of delivery is an order block. It has nothing to do with the size of the candle.
- The market has gone up, taking the buyer's thoughts straight up into the inefficiency. It's all in premium. The opening range is all impulsive.
- It's not me trying to say my community is trying to troll his community, because I'm indifferent to his methodology and don't even know what he's doing.
- Another one has entered the fray with me, a funded account company that has started live streaming their trading.
02:07:51 - The market aggressively ran down into the buy-side.
- It just didn't go to that point and there was a missed move for an additional short. The market aggressively ran down into the buy side and balance on efficiency.
- The levels are meaningful to me on the daily chart, so it's respecting and gravitating towards it.
02:10:53 - Learning to trade by observing price action.
- City lookouts are gravitating around the levels relative equal lows, what's below that, cell stops, consolidated new day opening gap, white level midpoint, city consolidating, displacement.
- NQZ 2023 shows how they went down.
- These things are going to be learned by you going into the chart and recording, annotating, observing and observing them. The same thing that you are submitting to when you buy a book.
- The first book will be released to the publisher and they will start the process.
02:16:15 - The importance of understanding your own trading strategy.
- What is required of you in your own backtesting and studying. Look at what has done when it went down and how it started this video.
- What is the focus point?
- If reckless with trading, you can lose money with it. You have to know what you're looking for and why it should be there in the chart.
- Highlights and low points of trading.
02:19:25 - How to trust your intuition.
- Why 90% of the problem that you have is you and you don't want to hear that it sounds like a cop-out excuse.
- How many months of back-testing and logging have you done and the details that you've recorded where the observations were recorded.
- Confirm that you are doing this right and getting favorable results, because if you are not, you are probably doing something incorrect.
- submit yourself to the process and observations of the cause and effect of doing it. It's either going to work or it's not.
- We thought the buy side in one up into five minute premium, fair value, got all the businesses talked about throughout this entire live stream, and it delivered lower.
- We don't tend to take a position before cpi, because they can rip your face off.
02:26:32 - How to trade the gap?
- Cpi is a monster. No one knows what it is going to do. It is an invitation to allow manual intervention to step in, like a rate announcement like fomc or non-farm payroll.
- The fact that they have traded up came back down in the balance here.
- What to look for in the market today, and what to expect in the first 30 minutes of trading.
- The five minute chart and the inversion fairway.
- Excessive compulsive is flaring this candle in question. It's high comes in at 665 and a quarter and low is 665.
- How to go into charts looking for specific things.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:01:11,310 --> 00:01:21,330 | ICT: Good morning, folks. Just a little bit of a impromptu live stream here for the London session |
| 2 | 00:01:22,590 --> 00:01:32,580 | before you get your hopes up, I'm just trying to get myself acclimated to price action from yesterday and today so that way I can see what I might be interested |
| 3 | 00:01:32,580 --> 00:01:40,830 | in. So I'm going to share that process with you today on there a lot of you ask all the time, like, what do I do in London? How do I use London to build some |
| 4 | 00:01:40,830 --> 00:01:51,180 | kind of a narrative bias? Before I get into it, if you could, if you follow me on Twitter, just give me a heads up, if you can hear me and if my charts, okay, |
| 5 | 00:01:51,180 --> 00:01:55,080 | if the streams coming through, okay? Just give me a five by five and that'll be good enough for me. |
| 6 | 00:02:05,580 --> 00:02:06,960 | Vinay, thank you very much. |
| 7 | 00:02:12,930 --> 00:02:22,560 | For those that are wondering, if you can't stay up live, I won't be very long with this, by the way. But if you can't stay, it's okay. It'll be recorded. |
| 8 | 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:33,750 | It'll be on the YouTube channel when I'm done. Alright, so let's get rambling. Alright, so this is a 15 minute timeframe. And this is like my Bellwether chart, |
| 9 | 00:02:33,750 --> 00:02:44,280 | I like to look at this timeframe as a first go to, I'd like the ability to see where the liquidity is. the buy side liquidity above all short term highs are |
| 10 | 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:56,280 | relatively equal highs, or below a single low or relatively equal lows. And I'd like to see the inefficiencies. So I apologize if this right here annoys you. |
| 11 | 00:02:56,550 --> 00:03:05,520 | But my live streams, I don't have a way of putting a watermark on them as of yet. So I have to have these unfortunate things here because a lot of people |
| 12 | 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:20,880 | have already taken my stuff and pretend that it's them doing it or teaching it. So just guess deal with it. The observation I have here is this single upclose |
| 13 | 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:37,110 | candle that is a bearish order block. What makes it a bearish order block is we are in a extreme premium above this short term high here. And we've moved below |
| 14 | 00:03:37,110 --> 00:03:47,280 | it. We have new day opening gap which will frame and I apologize I was a little premature in sharing the chart right before the silver bullet for London session |
| 15 | 00:03:47,310 --> 00:03:58,620 | reached into its objectives which I'll cover in a moment. I actually had the the new day opening gap increase incorrectly plotted. So I like to plot that on like |
| 16 | 00:03:58,620 --> 00:04:08,490 | a one minute chart, it gives you a better price level. So you'll see a slight difference in that so that way it's out of the way I want to make sure that I |
| 17 | 00:04:08,490 --> 00:04:18,030 | mentioned it now otherwise, I mean, completely omitted this inefficiency right here inside |
| 18 | 00:04:19,860 --> 00:04:20,820 | of this breaker |
| 19 | 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:39,720 | Okay, so I have half of this and I'm gonna show you what I'm doing here. If you take your fib drop it on this high to that low 50% in the upper quadrant those |
| 20 | 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:55,950 | two levels are of interest to me today. If we lose consequent encouragement which is the midpoint between this candles low this candles high half of that is |
| 21 | 00:04:55,950 --> 00:05:06,960 | here. So 15,006 24 Even 15,006 30 Even is the upper quadrant to this inefficiency. |
| 22 | 00:05:12,840 --> 00:05:25,230 | So on a discount, that's the level I'm looking at, and it's also framed on the basis of this low high, lower low, which is a ICT bullish breaker. Below here |
| 23 | 00:05:25,230 --> 00:05:37,230 | sell side, below here sell side and you can note this on your chart. And then the buy side was relative to this high here. And framed on the context that mean |
| 24 | 00:05:37,230 --> 00:05:47,580 | threshold was here. So in a perfect world for London, if it goes above a short term high, and we have had a really nice run yesterday a little bit more |
| 25 | 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:57,540 | animated to the upside than I anticipated. Last time I saw the charts for I went and took my son to have his brain scans done after his motorcycle accident. He's |
| 26 | 00:05:57,540 --> 00:06:08,250 | doing very well thank you. Not completely there yet, but he's improving grades got the high here above the high would be by sight and drawls right up into the |
| 27 | 00:06:08,250 --> 00:06:20,940 | middle of this up close candle. So that's mean threshold. This level here is half of an inefficiency. So its consequent encroachment, order blocks, breakers, |
| 28 | 00:06:21,210 --> 00:06:30,180 | new finite order block theory midpoints of those levels, or PD arrays are always referred to as mean threshold. Alright, so |
| 29 | 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:35,340 | let's drop down into a five minute chart. |
| 30 | 00:06:47,130 --> 00:07:01,860 | Alright, so right away, we can start seeing a little bit more detail here. We have the 15 minute time frame, bearish order block, mean threshold level here, |
| 31 | 00:07:02,850 --> 00:07:13,920 | read level. And then in here, we have a bounce price range. Now, I've talked a little bit about this over the course of last year and this year. But a bounce |
| 32 | 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:24,000 | price ranges when a market moves from a range where it's offered both sides, buy side and sell side delivery, not liquidity delivery, meaning that we had this |
| 33 | 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:35,190 | candle here traded up, so offered by side delivery. And then we had this candle here offering sell side delivery. So even though this is a fair value gap in the |
| 34 | 00:07:35,190 --> 00:07:48,240 | form of a city sell side imbalance by some inefficiency, it makes it stronger when you have on the opposing side, one singular candle up here. So it kind of |
| 35 | 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:57,690 | creates this island reversal type pattern. But we don't see it that way when there's a continuous delivery of price. Whereas if you looked at a separation of |
| 36 | 00:07:57,930 --> 00:08:07,650 | candles, for instance, let's see this candle, this big large up close green candle, say that it wasn't one singular candle, or that it stopped short here. |
| 37 | 00:08:08,010 --> 00:08:16,920 | And then the next candle opened up here and it was an actual gap. And then the same thing happened here it was gapped lower and went down. But a group of |
| 38 | 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:28,050 | candles up here we're not connected, if you will, to the previous price wrapped up in the previous or subsequent price drop. We don't see that separation here. |
| 39 | 00:08:28,050 --> 00:08:41,460 | But when I see price action like this, the way I internalize it is this is a segment of price action that was placed up here. Trapping longs for stopping out |
| 40 | 00:08:41,760 --> 00:08:52,440 | short holders on this initial run here. And then it moved away aggressively. And then we had the the market run right up into the middle of this inefficiency |
| 41 | 00:08:52,440 --> 00:09:05,190 | between this candles low this candles high and if we if you measure that see how we had half of that right there. I mean take the other levels also it makes it a |
| 42 | 00:09:05,190 --> 00:09:05,940 | bit cleaner for you. |
| 43 | 00:09:12,390 --> 00:09:23,130 | Have that inefficiency is here. So 15,006 81 It whips through up just a little bit. We call that a mohawk, which is just a small little deviation outside of |
| 44 | 00:09:23,130 --> 00:09:25,770 | what would be expected in terms of perfect algorithmic delivery. |
| 45 | 00:09:27,990 --> 00:09:29,070 | We'll take this off here. |
| 46 | 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:43,620 | So we have several factors here we have the market taking by side there in the afternoon yesterday. inefficiency, consequent encroachment of this inefficiency, |
| 47 | 00:09:43,650 --> 00:09:52,470 | which is the five minute premium fair value gap. What makes it a very strong fair value gap, the fact that it's inside the context of a balanced price range. |
| 48 | 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:59,790 | It does not mean that I won't take a fair value gap that doesn't have this element in price delivery, it just means that it's a little bit more favorable |
| 49 | 00:09:59,790 --> 00:10:10,350 | for me Me. For instance, let's say that I was interested in taking a trade with the maximum leverage that I'd be willing to take, I would like this fair value |
| 50 | 00:10:10,350 --> 00:10:20,070 | gap here with a maximum leverage. For instance, I could build that to 15 to 20 contracts, and be comfortable knowing that that, that pdra would offer the |
| 51 | 00:10:20,070 --> 00:10:30,150 | framework or context around that level of leverage behind the trade. Versus if I didn't have this, and I just had just the fear of a gap and an auction in my |
| 52 | 00:10:30,150 --> 00:10:38,040 | understanding about what price was likely to do, I may not go higher than 10 contract short. So it's kind of like helps you frame what I would internalize |
| 53 | 00:10:38,430 --> 00:10:49,860 | with the relationship of whether this becomes a balanced price range with the fair value gap, or if it's lacking this, okay, so the difference so that we can |
| 54 | 00:10:49,860 --> 00:10:58,680 | understand what I'm referring to in contrast, if you were to look at this Faraday gap here that I have highlighted, and the fact that we have a previous |
| 55 | 00:10:58,710 --> 00:11:09,750 | singular candle delivering on the upside to the left of it, notice that this here, doesn't have that same element right there. This is a pair of a gap. |
| 56 | 00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:21,450 | There's nothing different about this very thing here, with just one singular candle going lower. That down close candle is the same thing. That this down |
| 57 | 00:11:21,450 --> 00:11:33,060 | closed candle was right there. It's a sippy sellside unbalanced by Senate efficiency. The difference or the contrast between this one versus this one is |
| 58 | 00:11:33,060 --> 00:11:41,490 | this one doesn't have a balanced price range. This is simply just a fair value gap in the form of a city. So it doesn't have any kind of bounced price range |
| 59 | 00:11:41,490 --> 00:11:50,550 | here. It's just simply an inefficiency in the market does go effect up into it, but look what it does, it consolidates and then tears off higher. So that we're |
| 60 | 00:11:50,550 --> 00:12:02,370 | here is a little bit more context behind why the price should behave like it does over here. So it's not just simply looking at a fair value gap or having |
| 61 | 00:12:03,150 --> 00:12:11,790 | software programs or applications and it's becoming popular now. And they're improving, but they're still a little bit limited in their ability to pick the |
| 62 | 00:12:11,790 --> 00:12:18,420 | right fair value gaps. There's context, and a lot of these things will be cleared up. When I released my book, I don't want to do it in videos and unless |
| 63 | 00:12:18,420 --> 00:12:26,100 | somebody hits and moan about that, but you usually are the ones that are actually trying to put books out ahead of me. With my own content on Amazon. |
| 64 | 00:12:26,100 --> 00:12:33,600 | There's dozens of books that's already been written about what I've already taught and authored and things but they're not correct. So I appreciate your |
| 65 | 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:44,460 | overzealous desire to get it out there. Okay, but you're not prepared to do that. You don't know you're doing it, just don't do it. The Five Minute fair |
| 66 | 00:12:44,460 --> 00:12:56,640 | value gap here is a premium relative to the fact that we have that 15 minute discount. Busy bus Annabelle sauce on efficiency. Consequently, portrait |
| 67 | 00:12:56,640 --> 00:13:02,940 | remember, we were on the 15 minute time frame, I was showing you here for that gap inside the breaker link, go back up the 15 minute time frame, because I'm |
| 68 | 00:13:02,940 --> 00:13:14,250 | sure I lost a few of you. That's this one here. Okay. So while we are up here, relative to that price point there and the breaker, which is a discount. So |
| 69 | 00:13:14,250 --> 00:13:22,320 | between the breaker, and if we go into the breaker a little bit, we have this inefficiency right there. So we can expect and it would be reasonable, it'd be |
| 70 | 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:31,680 | permissible for price action to deliver to this level has it done so yet? No. And that's fine. But when we're doing analysis, and when I'm looking at London, |
| 71 | 00:13:31,950 --> 00:13:43,050 | I'm looking at these levels and having come like parameters and what I believe are thresholds that if this breaks, okay, then I have to be willing to see if it |
| 72 | 00:13:43,050 --> 00:13:54,720 | goes to that level there is candles high right there. But I'm only interested if it stays above it, because if it stays above it, I like the idea this actually |
| 73 | 00:13:54,720 --> 00:14:08,040 | going higher later in the day, higher in its scope that we would be, you know, higher this or CPI, which is tomorrow, that is a news driver that sometimes can |
| 74 | 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:18,210 | cause a lot of activity the day before. And then most other times, there's days before CPI where it just doesn't do a whole lot and then there's a face ripping |
| 75 | 00:14:18,450 --> 00:14:29,010 | event when CPI number comes out in some extremely volatile environment and you don't want to be trading ahead of it because it can rush to you real quick. So |
| 76 | 00:14:30,540 --> 00:14:40,710 | discount, I'm sorry, premium up here which is middle this 15 minute candle, which is a bearish order block and discount. So between those two, that's how we |
| 77 | 00:14:40,710 --> 00:15:04,440 | would frame premium to discount. Liquidity was taken here at premium sellside here and then in efficiency. With this large bullish breaker. So with that |
| 78 | 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:18,060 | context is go back down to a five minute chart. So we have the bounce price range, premium fair value gap. I just want to call that here. And I'm talking |
| 79 | 00:15:18,060 --> 00:15:35,940 | about drawing a distinction between that and something like this. So we run up here at 2:50am. Right at three o'clock, goes to a random 30 minute bearish order |
| 80 | 00:15:35,940 --> 00:15:45,330 | block mean threshold goes right to it to tick. Okay, you see that right there? What's the price level right here in red right over here on the right hand side |
| 81 | 00:15:45,330 --> 00:15:56,160 | on the price axis where it says 15 minute bearish order block? Mean threshold? What is that price level? 15,000 678 and a half? The three o'clock candle? |
| 82 | 00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:17,280 | What's the high, you're gonna be looking right up here? What's the high of that candle? 15,006 78.50. Yeah, that's perfect. We have a five minute break or now. |
| 83 | 00:16:17,370 --> 00:16:29,430 | So we have the high, low, higher high that digs into the five minute premium fair value gap. And the 15 Minute bearish order block. Now, right away, if it's |
| 84 | 00:16:29,430 --> 00:16:39,930 | the first time you've watched anything like this, it's gonna seem like this is very confusing. It may be seeming to you, that's an oversimplification. If it's |
| 85 | 00:16:39,930 --> 00:16:49,320 | complicated to you, it's because you're just now becoming introduced to it. But I promise you, this is so much easier to understand. It's so much more precise |
| 86 | 00:16:49,350 --> 00:16:59,730 | than anything like harmonic or anything else out there. Okay. I'm not saying that other folks that trade other ways and other mechanisms that get them into |
| 87 | 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:08,820 | markets one way or the other, can't be profitable. It's not I'm not arguing that case. I'm just saying, if we're going to talk about price, this is the market |
| 88 | 00:17:08,850 --> 00:17:16,020 | like this is what the market actually does. This is how it's coded. It's algorithmically delivered. There's absolutely nothing anyone can say. And I can |
| 89 | 00:17:16,020 --> 00:17:25,920 | sit in a courtroom in front of the CFTC in from the SEC, in from the EFF, whatever you want to do, okay, and walk this out, just like this, and whatever |
| 90 | 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:33,750 | they want to call it, what anybody else wants to call it. Okay, unless they understand and admit that this is absolutely 100% controlled, rigged, and it's |
| 91 | 00:17:33,750 --> 00:17:46,080 | to the tick controlled, it's not buying and selling pressure. These things repeat every single day. Now, there's sometimes there's a variance where manual |
| 92 | 00:17:46,080 --> 00:18:02,340 | intervention will step in, it'll step in, and it'll influence price. Okay, that manual intervention is mean. It's a person, it's a collective, it's someone or |
| 93 | 00:18:02,340 --> 00:18:14,880 | something, it's an entity that will want to move price in a otherwise unexpected manner. And that is the underlying risk. That's why when you hear people say, |
| 94 | 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:22,980 | Well, if the markets are algorithmic, and you understand the algorithm, why aren't you making billions of dollars first of all, if someone steps out there, |
| 95 | 00:18:23,430 --> 00:18:33,660 | and starts putting major size down, and tries to you can't put billions of dollars on that one on that one candle, by the way, at its infancy, it's too |
| 96 | 00:18:33,660 --> 00:18:43,290 | myopic have a view at somebody that you literally just stepped out of high school, and wants to pretend to understand the marketplace, okay, those ideas |
| 97 | 00:18:43,620 --> 00:18:54,540 | don't hold water, when you understand there's a certain measure of volume that these individual candles are gone to reflect you can't put billions of dollars |
| 98 | 00:18:54,540 --> 00:19:08,580 | on that one single touch of that level. So when smart money is attacking liquidity like below above this high here, right above this high would be by |
| 99 | 00:19:08,580 --> 00:19:18,570 | stops. Anyone that would want to view a run higher than this high, they would be buying on a buy stop. So buying a breakout, which many times in London is a |
| 100 | 00:19:18,570 --> 00:19:29,670 | mistake. Or for those that went short from this high or just after it, they're going to put a protective buy stop there. So above this level here |
| 101 | 00:19:32,130 --> 00:19:42,990 | is a measure of actual real orders in the form of buy stops which we call by sight liquidity. |
| 102 | 00:19:56,010 --> 00:20:06,750 | So you can see how the market randomly I say that facetiously, obviously, this high here a run that, but it spends a little bit of time up here. What's it |
| 103 | 00:20:06,750 --> 00:20:13,770 | waiting for? By the way? What do you think it's waiting for? I mean, it's already traded into the five minute premium fair value gap. It's already traded |
| 104 | 00:20:13,770 --> 00:20:27,780 | to the mean threshold here. What's it waiting for? Time? When is the price wrong really begin 3am. What did I teach you? There is a pattern that repeats that's |
| 105 | 00:20:27,810 --> 00:20:39,180 | algorithmically delivered, it runs on a macro. That means it's going to happen every single damn day, it won't miss a day, it won't call in sick. It's going to |
| 106 | 00:20:39,180 --> 00:20:47,100 | show up every single day between three o'clock and four o'clock in the morning, New York local time. That's the london session silver bullet. It's going to |
| 107 | 00:20:47,100 --> 00:20:55,980 | occur in the morning, New York session between between 10 o'clock in the morning and 11 o'clock in New York local time. And it's going to form I gave you now to |
| 108 | 00:20:55,980 --> 00:21:04,140 | have in the afternoon, between two o'clock and three o'clock and three o'clock and four o'clock. So you have two chances to catch up in the afternoon, between |
| 109 | 00:21:04,140 --> 00:21:16,290 | two o'clock and four o'clock, you have two chances to find this pattern. And for the London session today, we see the premium he reaches up into here, the price |
| 110 | 00:21:16,290 --> 00:21:22,920 | run really begins at three o'clock yours at three o'clock candle was going to reach for there. Initially, it's going to reach for the sell side resting rate |
| 111 | 00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:32,310 | below here. I don't want to add more annotations like this one here, because it kind of like mix chart a little bit more cluttered than I like it to be. So this |
| 112 | 00:21:32,310 --> 00:21:44,280 | one here is a bearish breaker, so we have high, the low prior to the higher high. That's more framing. So I'm showing you that wick there. Why am I showing |
| 113 | 00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:56,670 | you the wick? Because look to the left of it? What do you say? What's that right there? What is your Vega we're counting by side and balance is on an efficiency. |
| 114 | 00:21:57,030 --> 00:22:04,350 | So how do you know what kind of fair value gap it is, if it's an up close candle, that means it's a buy side unbalanced sell side an efficiency. If it's a |
| 115 | 00:22:04,350 --> 00:22:13,860 | down close candle, like over here, it's a sippy sellside imbalanced by some inefficiency, you're going to be anticipating the market wanting to go back down |
| 116 | 00:22:13,860 --> 00:22:23,970 | through between this candles high that candles low. But if we have a breaker in there, we want to have this level also annotated. Because on this side of the |
| 117 | 00:22:23,970 --> 00:22:36,120 | curve, that means the market goes up to take stops to go down on this side of the curve past or to the right of this low, which is a bearish breaker. We have |
| 118 | 00:22:36,120 --> 00:22:46,500 | to include this range, extending it forward, because this will act as an inversion fair value. So for the folks that are like wrestling with this |
| 119 | 00:22:46,500 --> 00:22:56,160 | already, because you want indicators by overbought oversold, you want moving average crossovers and I get that okay, but unfortunately, the markets don't use |
| 120 | 00:22:56,160 --> 00:23:08,010 | that. And there's no real subtle way of just telling you blindly following indicators or looking for those things that won't lead to you having a precision |
| 121 | 00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:17,820 | oriented approach to reading what price is going to do next or anticipating it or forecasting. And what I try to do is I try to teach you as a student to |
| 122 | 00:23:17,820 --> 00:23:28,440 | understand that there are simple dynamics that the market must behave in. There are there's lines, okay, there's boundaries in which the market is already |
| 123 | 00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:39,870 | predetermined. Unless manual intervention, what does manual intervention really, for instance, a unexpected rate announcement? Something that comes out where a |
| 124 | 00:23:39,870 --> 00:23:56,580 | geopolitical upheaval or a terrorist attack or some kind of wartime event or September 11, like we just celebrated 20 years anniversary of the World Trade |
| 125 | 00:23:56,580 --> 00:24:09,900 | Center attacks. Something like that. Nobody really sees it coming in. And then the markets have a, an issue that workout. So it may be that or it may be |
| 126 | 00:24:09,900 --> 00:24:18,720 | something that you won't ever really understand why it took place. It just happens. That is the underlying risk. That is always the case. It's always |
| 127 | 00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:30,120 | there. When you sign your risk disclosures and you sign up with a real broker and you're having real monetary risk risk of loss. That is the loss that I am |
| 128 | 00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:39,540 | more concerned about because you don't see those coming. Everything apart from that I'm okay with if I take a loss, if I do it wrong. I own that |
| 129 | 00:24:39,540 --> 00:24:51,120 | responsibility. If I read price action incorrectly, or if I'm trying to be ahead of my own algorithm, what I'm trying to predict before the actual setups are |
| 130 | 00:24:51,120 --> 00:25:01,320 | actually they're forecasting in versus actually reading the market and trading when I'm seeing that human element. I wrestle with that still You will always |
| 131 | 00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:09,810 | wrestle with that still, even when you're profitable you when you're consistent, you'll have these tendencies creep in. But the market itself has elements that |
| 132 | 00:25:09,810 --> 00:25:18,510 | it has to abide by. And it has no bearing on an indicator of any kind. It has nothing to do with supply and demand, it doesn't have anything to do it buying |
| 133 | 00:25:18,510 --> 00:25:27,990 | selling pressure, nothing has nothing to do with that. It's absolutely 100%, algorithmically delivered. It's running to unless there's manual intervention, |
| 134 | 00:25:27,990 --> 00:25:38,790 | that means the real market makers, okay, not a dealer, not somebody who works at Goldman Sachs, not you, JP Morgan, those individuals, they may have a title, |
| 135 | 00:25:39,420 --> 00:25:47,670 | okay, they may be called a market maker, but you really are just a dealer, you're not making price. You're not making it, you're dealing within the price |
| 136 | 00:25:47,670 --> 00:25:55,860 | delivery that's being offered and piped into you, the aggregate price feeds, you're working within them, you're not creating them. Okay, what I'm talking |
| 137 | 00:25:55,860 --> 00:26:07,080 | about is the whole tear, way beyond that. It's the highest origination of where price comes from, you aren't going to see that. I can't take you there. I'm |
| 138 | 00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:17,490 | showing you how you can see what it's doing, why it's doing it, why am I precise about what it is I look for most not all the time most times. And you can be |
| 139 | 00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:29,790 | wildly profitable. If you're correct. Some of the time with impeccable risk management. That as I said, No Lambo lifestyle, nobody's getting rich overnight |
| 140 | 00:26:29,790 --> 00:26:40,440 | type thing. I'm telling you how to start, soberly. But you have to look in price action and see for the patterns or look for these patterns, rather, and see if |
| 141 | 00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:49,500 | they resonate with you. If this is too complicated for you, and you, you have a way of using other things that may be simplifications for you, and employs an |
| 142 | 00:26:49,500 --> 00:26:57,570 | indicator and you find profitability net and you can sleep at night. Don't worry about whatever ICT says, okay, the bottom line is, it's about what you are |
| 143 | 00:26:57,570 --> 00:27:08,010 | making money with, and not losing very much off. That's, that's all this is about, folks. If I'm a help in that regard, then wonderful. But if I'm not tuned |
| 144 | 00:27:08,010 --> 00:27:18,870 | me out, stay with whatever you're doing. And don't mess with it. Because it's very difficult for a human being to wrestle themselves into submission, and |
| 145 | 00:27:18,900 --> 00:27:25,290 | figure this stuff out. Because you're, you're trading against yourself, you're not competing against me, you're not competing against anybody else out there to |
| 146 | 00:27:25,290 --> 00:27:35,070 | pretend to be a good guru or a good trader or winning championships or contest that never really existed. All those things are not important. What's important |
| 147 | 00:27:35,070 --> 00:27:41,880 | is are you making money? Or are you not making money, if you're not making money, figure out how to do that, once you figure it out, whether it's my |
| 148 | 00:27:41,910 --> 00:27:51,030 | material, or anything else, it means it's something you create on your own. But once you get to that point, don't tinker with it. Don't mess around with it, and |
| 149 | 00:27:51,030 --> 00:28:00,660 | stay with it. And I'm sure you'll be very content with that. But the problem is isn't social media invites the opportunity to try to outperform the next guy, or |
| 150 | 00:28:00,660 --> 00:28:09,090 | try to be better than this. And better than that. And you constantly keep yourself distracted instead of just focusing on making money. So once price |
| 151 | 00:28:09,210 --> 00:28:18,780 | trades above this short term high here, there's BizStats resting right above that. Because there's always liquidity above an old high and below and although |
| 152 | 00:28:19,620 --> 00:28:29,760 | the markets always constantly going up and down for two reasons, only two reasons. It's going up to in inefficiency up here. This down close candle what |
| 153 | 00:28:29,910 --> 00:28:40,410 | what happens inside this down close candle, a short term high formed here. So there's buyside listed right above that, does it run into that? It's real close |
| 154 | 00:28:40,410 --> 00:28:54,810 | to it, but doesn't take it out does it? This upper portion of this down close candle. That is the premium range of this inefficiency if I'm looking at the |
| 155 | 00:28:54,810 --> 00:29:05,400 | fair Vega if I'm looking for a very vague if it's part of a balanced price range as of outlining here, I don't really want to see it trade to the upper portions |
| 156 | 00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:14,790 | of it. I want to see it remain open. Oh my goodness. ICT just taught me how to look for inefficiencies that should not completely fill. Yes, this is one |
| 157 | 00:29:14,790 --> 00:29:15,270 | element of it. |
| 158 | 00:29:16,530 --> 00:29:25,680 | This shouldn't fill in if it's going to be bearish, if I'm expecting it to be bearish, if I want to see price run for sell side here. Potentially trading into |
| 159 | 00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:34,620 | the 15 Minute discount by setting a balance on efficiency, Gods quote encouragement. It's a whole lot of words out there, but it has to be labeled |
| 160 | 00:29:34,620 --> 00:29:43,200 | right? I mean, you're willing to go watch videos and read books about harmonic mo patterns that have absolutely no reason and rhyme for why the price is going |
| 161 | 00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:55,050 | to move. That's mythologies what that is. That's not real. The market does not care about your cameltoe pattern. Okay, it doesn't happen. This upper portion. I |
| 162 | 00:29:55,050 --> 00:30:03,120 | want to see that stay open. So the market does in fact trade up to the 50 minute time frame here. shorter block mean threshold, which is that red level here and |
| 163 | 00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:13,170 | trades into the lower portion of this five minute premium for Vega. So we're blending a lot of different things here that builds a narrative. It's not just |
| 164 | 00:30:13,170 --> 00:30:23,670 | me looking for one fair value got or one order block. It's a lot of things coming together coalescing, and then when does it really run? At time, at time |
| 165 | 00:30:23,670 --> 00:30:33,030 | of day that the algorithm will start spoiling? Spoiling is when the price does this type of thing here starts running in one direction, this back and forth |
| 166 | 00:30:33,030 --> 00:30:47,700 | stuff that's not that's not price spooling, SP o l i n g spooling. This is not spoiling. This is spoiling when it starts running one directional to a |
| 167 | 00:30:47,700 --> 00:30:56,130 | inefficiency, meaning like a Faraday gap here, or the one that we framed on the 15 minute time frame, the new mean threats, I'm not sorry, the consequent |
| 168 | 00:30:56,130 --> 00:31:12,240 | corrosion of it. If price runs for liquidity, or in an inefficiency, and it's directional, that's price spooling. It's doing it in the context of upward |
| 169 | 00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:25,530 | delivery or moving higher, okay? That is by side delivery, that means the price is running higher offering by side drawing to a liquidity of by side liquidity. |
| 170 | 00:31:26,850 --> 00:31:38,370 | If the market is dropping, that is sell side delivery, aiming for and targeting, sell side liquidity, relative equal love here to here. And then we have |
| 171 | 00:31:38,370 --> 00:31:48,660 | relatively equal lows over here. So when the market breaks below the short term low here, look at the five minute chart here. Let me just move this out just a |
| 172 | 00:31:48,660 --> 00:32:08,610 | little bit. Okay, do you see anything inside this five minute breaker low? Just the low of this new gap, which we would want to see, do what? Stay open? Why |
| 173 | 00:32:08,610 --> 00:32:18,000 | would I want to see that stay open? Let's drill down to the lower timeframe. Drop down to a one minute chart and be a little more detail here. Before I do |
| 174 | 00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:23,130 | it, there is a five minute discount by some unbalanced inefficiency here |
| 175 | 00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:25,860 | almost had to go back to this chart. |
| 176 | 00:32:28,410 --> 00:32:38,880 | See this inefficiency right here. This is inside of what that 15 minute by side imbalance outside efficiency. So in the upper portion of that above the 50 |
| 177 | 00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:50,880 | point, I'm sorry, 50% of it. I mean, let me show you here, not 15 minute timeframe, this inefficiency right here. From its 50% level, to this candles |
| 178 | 00:32:50,880 --> 00:33:00,630 | low. inside that area right there, there is a five minute gap right there. That's what I'm framing there. Okay. And you can see how the, the bodies are |
| 179 | 00:33:00,630 --> 00:33:07,470 | respecting all that. Now, we just recently, you know, just make right now traded down into the low |
| 180 | 00:33:11,730 --> 00:33:12,660 | of this one right here, |
| 181 | 00:33:14,250 --> 00:33:25,200 | inside of this level here. So this is becoming very interesting for me, because I wanted to see it, offer some support here. I wanted to see it hate it and |
| 182 | 00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:36,870 | reject it still could I mean, this could just be some price action. But for the context of a later day premise, I would want to see it not go below this and |
| 183 | 00:33:36,930 --> 00:33:46,890 | moving lower. That cancels any interest for me to see this high and or this high later in the day. So it would be a little bit more less likely for me to be |
| 184 | 00:33:46,890 --> 00:33:55,500 | taking any trades because I'd rather be going long this morning session or going in the afternoon going long. Then going short, because this is a lot of messy |
| 185 | 00:33:55,860 --> 00:34:04,260 | back and forth price action in here. Not to say it can't do a run below that. I'm just not favoring that right now. Because this is a lot of bounce pricing. |
| 186 | 00:34:04,620 --> 00:34:12,180 | It's back and forth delivery filaments, a lot of back and forth up, down, up, down, up down. It's going to take a significant price run to get below this low |
| 187 | 00:34:12,180 --> 00:34:19,560 | here. Not to say it can't happen on this suggesting right now at the time looking at the charts live with you here. It's not likely for me to anticipate |
| 188 | 00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:30,060 | that right now. Versus if we had just one single run down here and then a complete sharp, retracement move higher. That would be something I'd be |
| 189 | 00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:39,930 | interested in seeing that get ran out because we have all this in here. It just looks like this is all initially looks like it's trying to lure people into |
| 190 | 00:34:39,930 --> 00:34:49,620 | thinking that it's going to go lower. And I don't subscribe to that yet. Okay. But going short door in London, it's fine using the things I'm showing you here, |
| 191 | 00:34:49,620 --> 00:34:59,100 | but these levels are framed on this by Sanibel cells on efficiency Faraday got on that candle right there. So that's what these levels are, what it's referring |
| 192 | 00:34:59,100 --> 00:35:12,240 | to and it's dropped down in to a one minute chart. Alright, so everything I've mentioned so far is we trade up to the buy side here, this is the high in the |
| 193 | 00:35:12,240 --> 00:35:28,800 | five minute breaker. So inside that range, we're seeing this back and forth price delivery. This candle here, this candle here, and then we finally get the |
| 194 | 00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:40,650 | run here at 306. drops, trades to low low, oh, the new day opening gap. And here's the high of The New Day opening gap New Day opening gap is the difference |
| 195 | 00:35:40,650 --> 00:35:49,410 | between where we close at 5pm in New York local time. And then we reopen the session trading at 6pm. So there's our break where there's no trading for |
| 196 | 00:35:50,820 --> 00:35:59,730 | index futures. And that is framed me here. I'll scrub back and show you where I had the levels noted. This one here. |
| 197 | 00:36:01,380 --> 00:36:11,250 | And this one here. Those are the two price levels. I like I mentioned earlier in the beginning of the stream, if you just joined, I had this one incorrectly |
| 198 | 00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:22,350 | annotated. So just be mindful that that is now been rectified here. Or the live stream has no bearing on anything really doesn't change anything. It's just I |
| 199 | 00:36:22,350 --> 00:36:33,420 | just wanted to be correct. That did it incorrectly before posting the chart on Twitter. So inside that five minute breaker, why is this a breaker because we |
| 200 | 00:36:33,420 --> 00:36:45,030 | have a high the low and the higher high. This down close candle right in here is what's being referred to as the the bearish breaker for the one minute chart but |
| 201 | 00:36:45,030 --> 00:36:54,660 | we're framing it on a five minute and when when we had that gap, which would act as what inversion fair value gap which is not here in the chart. I want you to |
| 202 | 00:36:54,660 --> 00:37:04,800 | do that in your chart. And you'll see how it amplifies what I'm about to show you here. Now if we're anticipating the likely drawl to a discount five minute |
| 203 | 00:37:05,700 --> 00:37:16,500 | by sundown self sufficiency fair value, that's this levels here I mentioned for maybe drawing down into that 15 minute timeframe discount by Sanibel sauce on |
| 204 | 00:37:16,500 --> 00:37:24,360 | efficiency. Consequent courtroom, the midpoint that 15 minute gap. Look at the bodies where they're coalescing it or their |
| 205 | 00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:28,140 | interest interesting. And local prices don't right now. |
| 206 | 00:37:29,310 --> 00:37:43,860 | So the market while up here at three o'clock. That candle right there just perfectly touches what I teach you as a bearish order block, which is absolutely |
| 207 | 00:37:43,890 --> 00:37:55,020 | not a fucking supply and demand zone. It's not as absolutely not nothing to do with that. Okay, that's nothing. This level is a specific price level. It's not |
| 208 | 00:37:55,020 --> 00:38:02,520 | a zone. It's not something random. I'm not plucking it out of my ass. It's really going to be there in a chart, it's really going to be repeating the |
| 209 | 00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:11,670 | phenomenon repeats itself all the time because it's algorithmically delivered. That means that the markets are absolutely 100% controlled. And you should not |
| 210 | 00:38:11,670 --> 00:38:18,810 | be fearful that when I say things like that, and I'm convinced that most people over the years have heard this from me, It unsettles them, they're like, oh, |
| 211 | 00:38:19,470 --> 00:38:27,360 | that means I don't have a chance of winning. No, no, no, no, that's not what that means. If you don't know how to price books, then you absolutely are |
| 212 | 00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:34,170 | gambling and you're probably gonna lose your ass. And that's the reality I don't sugarcoat that I tell everybody the same way unless you know you're doing you |
| 213 | 00:38:34,170 --> 00:38:42,930 | should never ever ever risk real money and even when you start doing that, you should risk very, very little and anticipate in the early stages of your |
| 214 | 00:38:42,930 --> 00:38:53,340 | development that we will see as new developing students when we first start trading and we put money at risk you're going to have an incur losses and it's |
| 215 | 00:38:53,370 --> 00:39:02,340 | going to be a lot in the beginning. So you want to do it where you're taking very little losses in learning from them not not going to do maximum leverage |
| 216 | 00:39:02,340 --> 00:39:10,950 | and because I gotta learn with real money, you don't want to learn that you shouldn't have done that because that creates fear and scared money doesn't make |
| 217 | 00:39:10,950 --> 00:39:24,870 | money so inside that five minute breaker which is bearish market trades up into that one right there on this up close candle. Okay, what is it doing? Before I |
| 218 | 00:39:24,870 --> 00:39:36,390 | say anything more about what I mean is zoom in a little bit. I think you're watching Real Time price action. Pay attention to the lesson what's occurring |
| 219 | 00:39:40,020 --> 00:39:52,530 | now, I know it seems like advertising it's just I gotta keep these jokers honest. Inside of the five minute bearish breaker, right here on this candle at |
| 220 | 00:39:52,530 --> 00:40:05,130 | 307 What's what's occurring? The markets trading up into The Five Minute bearish breaker, which is shaded in the shaded area here, it's trading to the low of the |
| 221 | 00:40:05,130 --> 00:40:11,700 | YouVersion fair value gap that you're going to draw from the five minute chart. It's not in my chart now. That's the interactive part for you to put in your |
| 222 | 00:40:11,700 --> 00:40:22,650 | chart. It trades up to it here. And this down close candle right there. But ICT look, it has that big wick, I don't give a shit. That wick right there has no |
| 223 | 00:40:22,650 --> 00:40:30,180 | bearing on what it is I'm talking about the down close, I'm sorry, the up close, you're either gonna set the incorrectly sorry, the up close candle is a bearish |
| 224 | 00:40:30,180 --> 00:40:43,380 | order block. So the up close candle when it's trading to it here is two things going on. On the one minute chart right there. Two things are occurring. It's |
| 225 | 00:40:43,380 --> 00:40:54,900 | trading to the breaker and inversion fair value gap on the five minute timeframe. And on the one minute chart, it's trading up into a bearish order |
| 226 | 00:40:54,900 --> 00:41:03,510 | block. So when you see folks out there saying order blocks, just engulfing candles, that's horseshit too. It has nothing to do with engulfing anything. |
| 227 | 00:41:04,950 --> 00:41:19,770 | When the price is in a sell side delivery, okay, no words. At three o'clock, the price starts its run. And the macro begins seeking sell side, which is right |
| 228 | 00:41:19,770 --> 00:41:33,720 | here, and aiming for lower sell side liquidity, which is below old lows or singular low. Every single time, the market creates a up close candle in that |
| 229 | 00:41:33,750 --> 00:41:41,160 | sell side delivery price run. In other words, you're calling it a trending market, this is not a trending market. This is just a market that's declining. |
| 230 | 00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:51,930 | So that's why I don't use those terms trending. Because price swings are not trends. They're not to me price runs. So if I'm expecting and anticipating price |
| 231 | 00:41:51,930 --> 00:42:04,770 | running to lower targets into a discount, either for the purposes of going to a fair value get that's lower than market price. Or to a low or relative equal |
| 232 | 00:42:04,770 --> 00:42:17,160 | lows for sell side liquidity, either one of those scenario will provide me the context to anticipate lower prices. While I'm watching price. If I see something |
| 233 | 00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:28,200 | like this, where we open, we trade down and we rally up like this. If I'm short, I'm not freaking out over that. I want to see how we see the first up close |
| 234 | 00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:39,630 | candle when sellside begins its delivery. Because once that first once we get our price run here at three o'clock, and we snapped below that candle that |
| 235 | 00:42:39,630 --> 00:42:48,990 | created it. What What kind of candles that is closer down close up close. So when we break below that, I want to see when price starts to run, we're in an |
| 236 | 00:42:48,990 --> 00:43:00,990 | area where I anticipate what what's inversion fair Vega expected to do create a resistance factor in price. It should accumulate more shorts, it should offer |
| 237 | 00:43:01,020 --> 00:43:13,530 | smart money the opportunity to get in and add or like you see me many times do pyramid more short positions in an existing short position. Or next up close |
| 238 | 00:43:13,530 --> 00:43:23,670 | candles this one? Does it respect it? I don't know. What is it doing this one? Does it bumped the bottom of it and run lower the next candle? Yes. But you're |
| 239 | 00:43:23,670 --> 00:43:32,670 | looking at this and saying, let's see I got ICT by the balls right here. Here he is. He said that the silver bullet every single day, it happens between three |
| 240 | 00:43:32,670 --> 00:43:41,040 | o'clock and four o'clock, between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock. And two o'clock to three o'clock and three o'clock to four o'clock. There's four opportunities for |
| 241 | 00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:50,460 | you to quit your fucking job. And you're worrying about everything else in the world about trading and who's doing well on social media stop. You're missing |
| 242 | 00:43:50,460 --> 00:43:58,800 | these opportunities, because you're not focusing. You have to look at this price action in the times I'm telling you to study it, and you will see exactly what |
| 243 | 00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:08,250 | I've said is the truth. It's not made up. It's not contrived. It's it's not mythology. It's not animal patterns. It's not anything but the truth. Because of |
| 244 | 00:44:08,250 --> 00:44:20,010 | the framework that is outlined to you here. What timeframe is this? What's up here? The one minute chart. Okay, what I'm about to show you is going to make |
| 245 | 00:44:20,010 --> 00:44:28,320 | some of you uncomfortable because you either don't have access to these types of timeframes, or you're afraid of them, you think that they're going to do |
| 246 | 00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:36,690 | something that would be alien to what would be expected on higher timeframes. Some of you would look at one and try to help me I trust the moment chart but I |
| 247 | 00:44:36,690 --> 00:44:47,100 | could never trust a 30 minute or 32nd chart 32nd charts just too fast. No, it's not. It's the same price. It's doing the same thing. If you put a 32nd chart, a |
| 248 | 00:44:47,100 --> 00:44:55,470 | five second chart, a one second chart next to an hourly chart. The same market price is being reflected on the hourly candlestick. That's going to be shown on |
| 249 | 00:44:55,470 --> 00:45:08,730 | a one second chart. You just don't have to reprice When you introduce these elements of understanding where price is likely to go, where else is it? Before |
| 250 | 00:45:08,730 --> 00:45:16,620 | I get any further, I'm getting ahead of myself here getting rambunctious here. That's the problem with with live ICT. I don't have a filter, and I apologize if |
| 251 | 00:45:16,620 --> 00:45:27,660 | you're, you're playing me. And there's children around, because sometimes I'm going to use terms that I'm not proud of after the fact. But yeah, I'm gonna say |
| 252 | 00:45:27,660 --> 00:45:37,980 | things you probably are gonna like, and maybe shouldn't be listened to by your kids. What's this level right here? The New Day opening gap Hi. And this level |
| 253 | 00:45:37,980 --> 00:45:52,650 | here knew the opening gap low. This up close candle is in what portion of that range? The premium side of it no more just from between this candles, I'm sorry, |
| 254 | 00:45:52,650 --> 00:46:03,210 | not candle at this level here. And this level here, split that in half. Right here. So this up close candle is in the premium side of that new opening gap. If |
| 255 | 00:46:03,210 --> 00:46:12,870 | we're bearish, do we want to see it trade back to the premium end of that once we break below halfway, which is here. On this down, close candle right here, |
| 256 | 00:46:12,900 --> 00:46:21,870 | once it goes down halfway between New Day opening gap high and low? What are we seeing, we're seeing the market breakdown, we're seeing we're seeing proof that |
| 257 | 00:46:21,870 --> 00:46:28,380 | the algorithm, the thing that actually controls price, and then something you don't like to believe it can't believe it won't accept it, I don't give a shit. |
| 258 | 00:46:28,680 --> 00:46:34,620 | The point is, it's going to keep doing it, it's going to do it every week, every day, and it won't stop. And it's better for you to learn how to see these |
| 259 | 00:46:34,620 --> 00:46:41,250 | things. Because it will make your trading better. Whatever it is that you're using, it will make it better. It'll help you ferret out the ones that you're |
| 260 | 00:46:41,250 --> 00:46:49,320 | losing your ass on. That's the way it works, folks. You don't have to subscribe to everything I teach, you don't have to do every model everything that I've |
| 261 | 00:46:49,320 --> 00:47:00,120 | ever taught. But how I read price action, that is the market, I'm reading the price of what the markets going to do. Right when it should do it at the time, |
| 262 | 00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:09,270 | it should do it. And I have reasons to believe it's going to do it not? Well, let's just hope and pray because markets are random. Fuck that, if it was really |
| 263 | 00:47:09,270 --> 00:47:15,210 | random, I would not be risking money in it. Who would want to do that? Who would want to do that? |
| 264 | 00:47:16,500 --> 00:47:25,770 | You know, you got a 5050 chance of blowing your brains out. You know, let's just let's take a chance. It doesn't make any sense. I mean, that makes no sense. But |
| 265 | 00:47:25,770 --> 00:47:37,290 | if there's an edge if there is something that you can exploit, that repeats over and over and over again, that to me is an invitation to sit at the table. And |
| 266 | 00:47:37,290 --> 00:47:45,840 | all I'm doing is making a place at the table for you. For free. All I can do is investigate and see if what I'm teaching you is really in price. If it's not, |
| 267 | 00:47:45,870 --> 00:47:55,350 | you'll know what if it is you're going to be floored by it and everything else is going to look like nonsense. So right in here in this little area here we're |
| 268 | 00:47:55,350 --> 00:48:05,700 | going to look at these two while this little range in here, you can already see there's a highlighted shaded area here. I have that set where you can see in |
| 269 | 00:48:05,700 --> 00:48:17,160 | contrast, you're probably gonna hear Piper which is one of my puppies, she's next to me snoring so just if she's heard this know that I can do about the The |
| 270 | 00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:27,450 | Bumping of the low of that bearish breaker and inversion fairway gap that you'll have on your chart drawn from the five minute basis. This little shaded pink |
| 271 | 00:48:27,450 --> 00:48:31,350 | area is denoting where on a 32nd chart |
| 272 | 00:48:38,490 --> 00:48:53,190 | here's that five minute breaker. The market trades lower and we're bumping it right there on that candle. Now, right at that candle at 307 in 30 seconds |
| 273 | 00:48:54,240 --> 00:49:07,050 | what's actually occurring there. The market leaves that five minute breaker and it bumps into the inversion fair value gap and the five minute breaker right on |
| 274 | 00:49:07,050 --> 00:49:18,450 | that candle. And more specifically, it's going right into the gap between this candles low and this candles high right there. That right there is your london |
| 275 | 00:49:18,450 --> 00:49:28,260 | session. ICT bears Silver Bullet it's going to fucking be there every day. If you don't know how to read price if you don't know where it's gonna go. You |
| 276 | 00:49:28,260 --> 00:49:36,900 | don't have to read the tape. This is reading the tape anticipating where it's gonna go. Fucking level two data. Your order book bullshit has absolutely no |
| 277 | 00:49:37,020 --> 00:49:44,190 | rhyme or reason why price is going to go there. That's spoofing. They didn't you can fake all that stuff. You can't fake or spoof the open high low and close |
| 278 | 00:49:44,220 --> 00:49:52,140 | these candles as they're forming. You can't spoof reading actual real time price action you can't spoof that you can do it incorrectly. But once you understand |
| 279 | 00:49:52,140 --> 00:49:59,730 | what you're looking for, you're anticipating these things once the markets likely to keep going lower. It means you're in sell side delivery it means the |
| 280 | 00:49:59,730 --> 00:50:07,470 | market Going to go lower to take stops below old lows or reach into an inefficiency below the market price. That means some kind of fair value get |
| 281 | 00:50:07,470 --> 00:50:13,980 | below market price. Where was that at this point right here, all the way down here. |
| 282 | 00:50:15,480 --> 00:50:23,040 | Your hair snoring just showed a level. |
| 283 | 00:50:25,260 --> 00:50:33,330 | I don't think I have it highlighted for that level. But we can use the five minute ferry again. So if we were anticipating that level, don't worry, I'll |
| 284 | 00:50:33,330 --> 00:50:42,210 | show you what all this is here in a second. But we're looking for an entry here for silver bullet. And we're looking for it to trade down into sell side, this |
| 285 | 00:50:42,240 --> 00:50:47,820 | red level here is the sell side liquidity pool below the relative equal lows |
| 286 | 00:50:47,910 --> 00:50:52,500 | on this level here. |
| 287 | 00:50:54,090 --> 00:50:57,210 | That's the red level here. So if we go back |
| 288 | 00:51:00,210 --> 00:51:01,230 | in the 32nd chart, |
| 289 | 00:51:02,790 --> 00:51:14,850 | and we're trading in this level here, inside the silver bullet right there, but ICT I don't, I don't have access to 32nd charts, get it? Because you're going to |
| 290 | 00:51:14,850 --> 00:51:23,940 | miss some of the silver bullets if you don't. Okay, because all I'm looking for is that small, little separation, where there's an actual inefficiency. I'm |
| 291 | 00:51:23,940 --> 00:51:36,810 | gonna tell you exactly what's going on right now, at that moment. Right in here, as soon as price trades that this candle is high. And as long as the market is |
| 292 | 00:51:36,810 --> 00:51:50,760 | above, here for this candles body, which is mean threshold algorithms. high frequency trading algorithms are firing in short orders constantly, overwhelm as |
| 293 | 00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:58,170 | best as you can get them in there as fast as the market will absorb. And it can take them in high frequency trading algorithms for selling the fuck out of that. |
| 294 | 00:52:00,930 --> 00:52:15,690 | And it slows down when it gets to about right there. That selling by the algorithms is not pushing price down. Because if it was, it wouldn't trade up |
| 295 | 00:52:15,690 --> 00:52:25,560 | while it was doing it. The market goes up to offer the entity that I collectively refer to as smart money, you're not going to see him. They're not |
| 296 | 00:52:25,560 --> 00:52:34,170 | writing books out there. They're not going out there and making courses for you. Okay, in 2010, I went rogue and you are learning about these things that you |
| 297 | 00:52:34,170 --> 00:52:42,780 | would otherwise never even seen learn talked about. Nobody's ever done it before. And Fairbury gaps are not support resistance on lower timeframes. And |
| 298 | 00:52:42,780 --> 00:52:49,830 | no, you can't use moving averages. That's all bullshit. That's almost eat your top out excuses for people that are selling Mickey Mouse shit, that doesn't |
| 299 | 00:52:49,830 --> 00:52:59,280 | work. This is the truth behind the marketplace. You've watched me do this live in front of you. You've watched me trade with real accounts live money. It's |
| 300 | 00:52:59,310 --> 00:53:10,080 | It's It's reality, folks. You won't believe it, until you see it yourself. And once you experience it, and you start seeing it repeat, doing back testing, |
| 301 | 00:53:10,260 --> 00:53:17,250 | don't what I'm showing you right here, this is back testing. This is my way of back testing, looking for these signatures in price action, collecting the data. |
| 302 | 00:53:17,580 --> 00:53:26,280 | And then taking a snapshot of the charts like this in like small little areas over here, or over here, you write out your observations. And you record as if |
| 303 | 00:53:26,280 --> 00:53:36,150 | you anticipated that happening real time. That's positive self talk, what you're doing is you're creating pseudo experience, which is far better than using |
| 304 | 00:53:36,150 --> 00:53:44,730 | something like a market replay report, which is absolutely horseshit. That's not real results. This is where you're going into the chart, and you're specifically |
| 305 | 00:53:44,730 --> 00:53:52,620 | looking at an element of price delivery. And you're internalizing it, you're recording it with an emotional stimuli that at the time, when you're doing the |
| 306 | 00:53:52,620 --> 00:54:04,800 | back testing, you're talking in the chart like or annotations, rather, like you really saw happening with the pretense that you will go into that journal log |
| 307 | 00:54:04,800 --> 00:54:12,330 | entry at the end of the week, at the end of the month, and reflect constantly looking at it. And when you read your annotations, your subconscious reads the |
| 308 | 00:54:12,330 --> 00:54:21,510 | fact that I saw that I was happy, satisfied to see price behaving like I expected and it's filtering out all the negative. The best way to encourage if |
| 309 | 00:54:21,510 --> 00:54:28,650 | you have a child, they're going to want to do well for you, when you encourage them. You don't want them to be torn down and break their will by constantly |
| 310 | 00:54:28,650 --> 00:54:35,700 | scolding them and saying you're a failure, you're never gonna amount to anything. Who would do that? Well, the trader inside of you unless you are well |
| 311 | 00:54:35,700 --> 00:54:42,660 | equipped, consistently profitable trader right now, you're a trader in the making your infant, and that's not derogatory. It's just you're not equipped |
| 312 | 00:54:42,660 --> 00:54:53,070 | with experience yet. So the safest way to acquire that is through journaling. And it becomes a powerful resource where you tap into to see these things |
| 313 | 00:54:53,070 --> 00:54:59,400 | repeating all the time. It's not something that just repeats once in a while. It's every fucking day, every day it repeats. It doesn't mean you're going to be |
| 314 | 00:54:59,400 --> 00:55:08,490 | on every day. Trade, it just means that you're refining your ability to see these observations in old data, which means that you'll recognize it by |
| 315 | 00:55:08,490 --> 00:55:16,080 | repetition. In the future real time before it actually forms you'll anticipate, you'll say, Okay, I'm gonna see how the market behaves at this up close candle |
| 316 | 00:55:16,080 --> 00:55:27,060 | because we're likely to go lower. So I want to see up close candles repel price going down. And we're seeing that up close candles are being repelled when they |
| 317 | 00:55:27,060 --> 00:55:35,310 | get into them. But this right here, this little inefficiency, that shaded area, let me take this off that little area between this candles high that candles |
| 318 | 00:55:35,310 --> 00:55:48,960 | love, that's the silver bullet. This price dropped like this on your chart. Sure did is go back up to the moment chart because once the entry is done, you're |
| 319 | 00:55:48,960 --> 00:55:57,450 | probably asking yourself, where would you stop being on this? Or here? Where would you stop me would have to be above this candle is high. That's too much |
| 320 | 00:55:57,450 --> 00:56:04,950 | risk. Don't take the trade. Trade with less leverage, you're trying to trade with 15 contracts, because you've funded accounts as you can trade 15 contracts, |
| 321 | 00:56:04,980 --> 00:56:15,000 | that doesn't mean you should do it. All of you should be trading with the least amount of leverage period. We're in a market condition that is absolutely ripe |
| 322 | 00:56:15,270 --> 00:56:23,760 | for a black swan event. That means something that is going to absolutely tear the shit out everybody's as even me if I allow it. Which is why I don't I'm not |
| 323 | 00:56:23,760 --> 00:56:33,840 | trading with a lot of leverage. I'm not pushing, I'm not really pushing it right now. There's a lot of stuff going on geopolitically, here in the States. We get |
| 324 | 00:56:34,230 --> 00:56:43,020 | it is it. I'm gonna hold my tongue, I'm gonna livestream on YouTube, it's going to turn into a Twitter speech real quick. Just know that we have a lot of |
| 325 | 00:56:43,020 --> 00:56:56,220 | reasons to be respecting risk right now. And you shouldn't be doing a lot of crime carnival like exercises in your trading Scott till moment chart. And |
| 326 | 00:56:56,790 --> 00:57:07,530 | practice a little bit longer than I wanted to be. But so when price starts, it's wrong here on a one minute chart. And preferably, if you have access to less |
| 327 | 00:57:07,530 --> 00:57:16,140 | than one minute charts, you should never just have that second chart, whether it be a 32nd 15 second, five second 10 Second one second chart, you should not have |
| 328 | 00:57:16,140 --> 00:57:29,730 | that only on your chart or your your workspace, you should have a timeframe or two above it. In this case, if I was looking at the the 32nd chart, I would have |
| 329 | 00:57:29,730 --> 00:57:37,500 | the one minute and five minute chart because it helps you see all the other order flow that would be seen in the candlesticks, up close candles when you're |
| 330 | 00:57:37,500 --> 00:57:47,970 | in sell side delivery should act as real resistance. That's that's what the algorithm refers to it as it's an old area where it can be utilized to |
| 331 | 00:57:47,970 --> 00:58:00,030 | accumulate new shorts. The algorithms not accumulating shorts, it's delivering price for those individuals that participate with that intent purpose to |
| 332 | 00:58:00,030 --> 00:58:08,340 | maximize the exploitation of how price is delivered. That's behind the curtain. Shit that's the reality of it all. I don't give a shit who says what how long |
| 333 | 00:58:08,340 --> 00:58:14,460 | have you been in the industry what title they've been given? I don't give a fucking shit. If they have something better than this they're invited to come |
| 334 | 00:58:14,460 --> 00:58:20,820 | over to Twitter go on a live stream I will join their fucking live stream and I will run circles around their fucking ass I don't give a fuck what central bank |
| 335 | 00:58:21,060 --> 00:58:27,810 | bullshit you want to come up with. I don't give a shit what brokerage firm you're a top tier this you've been this you're an ex banker bring your Mickey |
| 336 | 00:58:27,810 --> 00:58:34,080 | Mouse shit here and I will run circles around you. You don't matter reprice. You're gonna be looking at something that has absolutely no bearing on why price |
| 337 | 00:58:34,080 --> 00:58:43,560 | should go up or down. And that's the facts period. I've been saying this stuff since I stepped out here since 2010. And nobody has come out with anything more |
| 338 | 00:58:43,560 --> 00:58:54,420 | precise than this. Because they didn't know it. They didn't know it Goldman Sachs boys don't know this. They're studying my shit now though. Hello. When a |
| 339 | 00:58:54,420 --> 00:59:03,960 | woman at chart after the price starts its run again. Here's that sell side delivery or sell side liquidity rather I'm sorry, get a little animated here. I |
| 340 | 00:59:03,960 --> 00:59:13,590 | don't need coffee brother. chemical imbalances do it for me sell side liquidity, relative equal lose and the silver bullet here so we're gonna anticipate price |
| 341 | 00:59:13,590 --> 00:59:26,700 | drawing initial to this one. And over here. Here we accelerate to dig into this sell side liquidity pool there. So we create a sell side unbalanced spots on |
| 342 | 00:59:26,700 --> 00:59:35,640 | efficiency a sebi. Remember, if it's a fair value gap, if it's a down close candle, that means it's a city. That means we anticipate price at a later time |
| 343 | 00:59:35,760 --> 00:59:50,670 | at some time. It's going to reach back up into it with the expectation that it should offer new opportunities to do what accumulate new shorts. If you're |
| 344 | 00:59:50,670 --> 00:59:58,560 | bearish, would we want to see this entire range completely repriced, to on the upside of it, in other words, overlapped with moving up. No, we don't want to |
| 345 | 00:59:58,560 --> 01:00:12,030 | see that. Why? Because if it starts keeping these things open, then we're always teaching about the five minute fair pay gap here where we are left open, I would |
| 346 | 01:00:12,030 --> 01:00:21,120 | want to see that stay open on above this high here, not completely overlap that candle. The same idea there is what we would expect here, we want to see the |
| 347 | 01:00:21,120 --> 01:00:31,950 | upper portion of an inefficiency stay open. So every single time and inefficiency manifests itself in price. If I'm bearish, I am actively interested |
| 348 | 01:00:31,950 --> 01:00:42,990 | in seeing if it stays open, the upper half of it needs to stay open. As long as it's doing that, that gives it lots of room to keep going down. Why? Because it |
| 349 | 01:00:42,990 --> 01:00:57,420 | becomes a measuring gap. Breakaway gaps, measuring gaps, and then you can have exhausting gaps now exhausting gaps. I've had hit and miss type. |
| 350 | 01:00:59,880 --> 01:01:08,820 | observations with that sometimes I've been really good with anticipating and labeling a exhausting gap where the price reaches a target. And I've been very |
| 351 | 01:01:08,820 --> 01:01:17,880 | candid about my weaknesses as a trader is my exits, I'm never satisfied with my actions, my entries, either, you know, fucking person walking this planet ever |
| 352 | 01:01:17,880 --> 01:01:27,000 | past present, or future that will ever be better than my entries, they'll never be that they'll never be able to beat my entries. But my exits, I'm absolutely |
| 353 | 01:01:27,000 --> 01:01:36,600 | not satisfied. But because I want the same level of precision and trust that I have for my entries. And you've seen me execute and see me do pair meeting and |
| 354 | 01:01:36,870 --> 01:01:52,320 | like I'm all over, I'm in there, like dialed in like a heat seeking missile. But because when price runs are going real quick, I had to grow in my I guess, |
| 355 | 01:01:52,800 --> 01:02:00,900 | satisfaction of being content with enough, which is why I teach you all that because I wrestled and I still, mentally I still wrestle with wanting to be |
| 356 | 01:02:00,900 --> 01:02:09,240 | perfect at my exits. Like it's a, it's a great goal to strive for, and always work towards. But you have to constantly remind yourself that you're probably |
| 357 | 01:02:09,240 --> 01:02:18,270 | never going to be perfect. But what's wrong with going after that goal, if it's not going to hurt you. As long as you don't let it bend you up mentally, like I |
| 358 | 01:02:18,270 --> 01:02:28,920 | allowed it to do years ago, like I was convinced, absolutely convinced that I was going to nail every single turning point every single time. And while I can |
| 359 | 01:02:28,920 --> 01:02:39,360 | do it, lots of times, I won't get every single one of them. Because the human element in me will create them. I'm bipolar, sometimes you will have a manic |
| 360 | 01:02:39,390 --> 01:02:48,150 | episode, sometimes I will do something that I shouldn't have done. And then I have to wrestle with that. And I'm thinking about that, while I'm trying to you |
| 361 | 01:02:48,150 --> 01:02:55,890 | think I'm an AI. So when you think I'm not a real person, I'm a real person. I struggle with mental disorder, I struggle with a lot of things that an average |
| 362 | 01:02:55,890 --> 01:03:04,050 | person would do that has real concerns for family, friends or and well being. And there's real money at risk here, folks, you know, if it was just demo, I |
| 363 | 01:03:04,050 --> 01:03:13,110 | wouldn't concern myself with any of it. It's just like, there it is easy. But when it's real money behind it. If you do something he didn't want to do, in |
| 364 | 01:03:13,110 --> 01:03:20,490 | retrospect, looking back, then I wish I would have done that. I wish that when I traded that many contracts, I wish I would have had more contracts. One, my mind |
| 365 | 01:03:20,490 --> 01:03:28,740 | will gravitate to that. And that's a distraction. Imagine doing all these things and having to keep constantly refer to these timeframes I'm using to trade with. |
| 366 | 01:03:29,490 --> 01:03:42,210 | So that aspect of this is the complicating factor, not the fact that it is what it is and how it's being taught. That's that's not complicated. Remember, you're |
| 367 | 01:03:42,210 --> 01:03:51,390 | willing to go out and buy all these books, from other authors and stuff and try to read how to read price action trend lines, you know, classic Park chart |
| 368 | 01:03:51,390 --> 01:03:59,010 | patterns and whatnot. The willingness that you're willing to subject yourself to that, when you don't know how long it's going to take you to learn that, why |
| 369 | 01:03:59,010 --> 01:04:06,600 | won't you apply it to this, because this is the real shit, this is the real thing here. You may not be able to identify right now. And it may feel like it's |
| 370 | 01:04:06,600 --> 01:04:16,890 | overwhelming to you. But it's the real thing that you're looking for. So there's inefficiency, we would want to see the upper half of that stay open. Why? Well, |
| 371 | 01:04:16,890 --> 01:04:25,740 | several factors. Number one, it would invite the likelihood of continuation going lower, which we haven't even traded to the sell side here, which is that |
| 372 | 01:04:25,740 --> 01:04:39,030 | red level. So the stops or sell stocks below that red level, haven't even mean getting engaged yet when this was formed there. We have an old low here. So the |
| 373 | 01:04:39,030 --> 01:04:51,630 | likelihood of it going up and completely overlapping this one down close candle and still going lower. I don't like that. So if I was in a trade, and I saw this |
| 374 | 01:04:51,630 --> 01:05:03,060 | going up to that point there, it would be extremely critical for it to immediately and aggressively reject that and go a lot harder, lower if it was |
| 375 | 01:05:03,060 --> 01:05:11,100 | meandering around, and not willing to go aggressively lower after going into the high end of this level here, that I would, I would kill the tree, I would |
| 376 | 01:05:11,100 --> 01:05:19,950 | collapse it and just be done because it to hold on to a trade like that. In an area where I knew that likelihood or probabilities would be shifted against me, |
| 377 | 01:05:20,790 --> 01:05:28,830 | then I'm going to start spending mental capital. Even if I have open profits in the trade that have not been realized, yet haven't closed the trade, I'm going |
| 378 | 01:05:28,830 --> 01:05:36,240 | to start spending mental capital, meaning I'm going to be worrying and stressing about something that I don't ultimately have any control over. And then I'll |
| 379 | 01:05:36,240 --> 01:05:44,310 | start wrestling with the idea. If I get out, it might move in my favor. And I regret that, if I stay in, it's going to eat up more my profits. So as soon as |
| 380 | 01:05:44,310 --> 01:05:53,490 | you start getting to that point in your trade, are you in control of your trade anymore? No. So you just abandon it, abort it, take your profit, whatever it is, |
| 381 | 01:05:53,640 --> 01:06:00,750 | and move to the next opportunity. If it goes against you, and would have stopped you out. Wonderful, you do the right thing. If it moves in your favor and goes |
| 382 | 01:06:00,750 --> 01:06:08,310 | to your target, wonderful. I mean, your model was correct and you manage yourself correctly, you have to manage you, nobody is going to do it for you, |
| 383 | 01:06:08,310 --> 01:06:14,400 | I'm not going to be in the room tapping on the shoulder, hey, you know, you shouldn't do that. You have to develop these skill sets on your own, your broker |
| 384 | 01:06:14,400 --> 01:06:21,390 | is not going to say, hey, you sure you want to do that, you're sure you want to hold on this train, because it's probably not going to fare well to you, it's |
| 385 | 01:06:21,390 --> 01:06:31,320 | going to go probably go to your stop, you got to be responsible. And a lot of folks, a lot of new guys and gals that come to me, their youth and or their |
| 386 | 01:06:31,320 --> 01:06:43,170 | makeup as a person prevents them from being personally responsible. And it's very easy for them to acquire excuses why it doesn't work for them. It's not |
| 387 | 01:06:43,170 --> 01:06:51,690 | because it's not rooted in reality, or the truth and how markets really book price. It's the fact that you the operator are not equipped to do it yet. But |
| 388 | 01:06:51,690 --> 01:07:01,140 | you can be if you put the time into it. So if it's not going to go on the upper portion of this gap and trade higher and close it in a reprice to it, we want to |
| 389 | 01:07:01,140 --> 01:07:16,470 | see the halfway point or less, be sensitive. And here's 25% of this city. I'll show you what that means. From this candles, low to this candles high 50% level |
| 390 | 01:07:16,470 --> 01:07:26,520 | there, and then 25%. Now for the folks that want to see my Fibonacci level, here it is, again, what I change is this one here. Sometimes if I want to do like a |
| 391 | 01:07:26,550 --> 01:07:39,090 | TGIF measurement on the weekly candle to see how far on a Thursday or Friday, the market can retrace on a weekly range that's expanded higher or lower. Right |
| 392 | 01:07:39,090 --> 01:07:51,600 | now I have it set to 25 because I want to get to quadrant levels. If I want to use the TGIF, I take that off, and it's going to be 0.2. So there's the |
| 393 | 01:07:51,600 --> 01:08:00,810 | distinction there. Okay, you've probably seen some discrepancies. When I show my Fibonacci settings. These are, these are the ones that are usually changing, |
| 394 | 01:08:00,840 --> 01:08:11,280 | everything else pretty much stays static. So I want to see the quadrant level, lower quadrant, lower quadrant or quarter of this range. You can see it here. |
| 395 | 01:08:12,600 --> 01:08:24,750 | Point two, five is the measurement from the scandals low to that candles high. So if I'm bearish, I want to see the market respond aggressively and sell off at |
| 396 | 01:08:24,750 --> 01:08:35,520 | either the quarter or the halfway point and not trade up into here. Okay, because the algorithm if it does these things like that, that's like a warning |
| 397 | 01:08:35,520 --> 01:08:46,200 | sign for smart money. Just be careful don't add new positions. That's what it is, folks. It sounds like conspiracy conspiracy theory sounds like contrived Tom |
| 398 | 01:08:46,200 --> 01:08:57,630 | Clancy kind of shit, but this is the way it is. Okay. It is the way it is. And you tell me what's the price level here on this high on that candle? You're |
| 399 | 01:08:57,630 --> 01:09:08,730 | gonna be looking at it up here. Okay, this upper left hand corner? What's the high of that candle right there? 15,652.75. What's the quarter level? |
| 400 | 01:09:10,110 --> 01:09:20,520 | 15,006 52.75 find that your fucking supply and demand. Okay, find that and Wycoff find that an algo box. It's not there. Okay, all that stuff, folks. All |
| 401 | 01:09:20,520 --> 01:09:32,970 | that stuff is nonsense. That's not the real market. That's you trusting a religion of indicators, some kind of archaic bullshit theology has absolutely no |
| 402 | 01:09:32,970 --> 01:09:38,220 | bearing on how price is gonna go up or down. And why it's gonna go there and what time it's going to go there. |
| 403 | 01:09:40,350 --> 01:09:43,410 | I know I'm pissing people off and I don't care. |
| 404 | 01:09:44,640 --> 01:09:54,660 | Because sometimes you just gotta be blunt. So the market goes up into that range. We want to see it, stay open. If it closes, then you have to deal with it |
| 405 | 01:09:54,660 --> 01:10:03,150 | differently. But every inefficiency I'm trying to anticipate them staying open. If I'm bearish, I want to see the upper half stay open. If I'm bullish, I want |
| 406 | 01:10:03,150 --> 01:10:11,970 | to see the lower half stay open. They may come back down and reprice if it comes down and read prices. And it hasn't Like for instance, if it hasn't gone below |
| 407 | 01:10:11,970 --> 01:10:18,900 | the sell side here, this is important stuff. This is the things that you need to be listening to, and why these fucking live streams and videos are beneficial to |
| 408 | 01:10:18,900 --> 01:10:25,920 | you. This is the stuff you don't want to hear and see other people complaining, but this is the stuff going to make you fucking money. This is going to be the |
| 409 | 01:10:25,920 --> 01:10:34,500 | thing that helps you keep your money. If this would have repriced, to the upper end of that candles low, if it would have done that. And it did not go below |
| 410 | 01:10:34,500 --> 01:10:44,340 | this red level, which is the sell side liquidity pool on the five minute chart. That means that I would still be willing to hold the trade. But it needs to |
| 411 | 01:10:44,340 --> 01:10:52,380 | start dropping aggressively. Once it gets there, you cannot wait around and spend time like it was doing here. Consolidating, consolidating, and then goes |
| 412 | 01:10:52,380 --> 01:11:01,050 | to the lower quadrant of that cell fundamental supply chain efficiency then dropping, I don't want to see that once it does, this goes back up. And if it |
| 413 | 01:11:01,050 --> 01:11:08,670 | would have done that, I would have held the trade. If it would have done that. But it would have been a time stop added to it. It means as soon as it touched |
| 414 | 01:11:08,670 --> 01:11:16,770 | this candles low, it's got two fucking minutes to get in my favor. And outside of that range here. If it doesn't do it, I'm taking half the trade off for all |
| 415 | 01:11:16,770 --> 01:11:29,100 | of it. Because the likelihood is they may not come back down here to take that sell side until New York. The paradigm shift what I just gave you there. For the |
| 416 | 01:11:29,100 --> 01:11:37,740 | new folks, it's going to feel like it was mumbo jumbo, it means nothing. It's because you're still too new to know what's good information. But that stuff is |
| 417 | 01:11:37,740 --> 01:11:47,490 | algorithmic. That is real mechanics behind how you manage a trade, how you manage risk. How do you anticipate and forecast future price delivery and how |
| 418 | 01:11:47,490 --> 01:11:56,130 | you manage yourself psychologically? Emotionally, all these things are predetermined protocols. I know exactly what I'm doing how I'm going to do it |
| 419 | 01:11:56,130 --> 01:12:02,370 | how I'm going to behave. I'm not surprised by price action. I'm not worried about missing a move, and none of those things because this is how I internalize |
| 420 | 01:12:02,370 --> 01:12:10,200 | price. These are the benefits of reading and learning what it is I'm teaching you, but you can't just watch this video, this live stream with me live right |
| 421 | 01:12:10,200 --> 01:12:17,190 | here in front of everybody live. You can't just watch this one time and walk away with Yeah, I know exactly. He's talking about you have to go on your charts |
| 422 | 01:12:17,190 --> 01:12:27,120 | and build a library of these examples in specific times. How hard is it folks? Listen, okay, I promise we're gonna continue to be done. But how hard is it for |
| 423 | 01:12:27,120 --> 01:12:35,850 | you to simply go into the chart between the time when as I tell you to look at, I can't make any easier than this. Three o'clock to four o'clock in the morning |
| 424 | 01:12:35,910 --> 01:12:45,120 | morning session, you will not trade if you're able to trade in that time of day I fit your your life cycle, and what you're doing in the world. Focus on that |
| 425 | 01:12:45,120 --> 01:12:55,260 | study between three o'clock and four o'clock. Is that a whole lot of time to be studying? No, it's 60 minutes. This is going to repeat every day. It's in forex, |
| 426 | 01:12:55,890 --> 01:13:09,870 | it's in futures, it's in commodities. It's in bonds. It's there every day, how many times do you need to see it showing up before you're convinced that it's |
| 427 | 01:13:09,870 --> 01:13:20,430 | real? I don't know. But whatever it is do that many times and back testing. And then every day, every single day, you do what I'm doing right here. You mark up |
| 428 | 01:13:20,430 --> 01:13:33,900 | your charts, you save the data, and you collect it, and you record your observations. It's work, it's absolutely work. But you're building your |
| 429 | 01:13:33,900 --> 01:13:43,920 | experience with but by doing it, you're building your experience and doing this. You can't acquire that experience any other way. But by just getting it on your |
| 430 | 01:13:43,920 --> 01:13:54,120 | own buying courses, joining mentorships joining discords bought buying some kind of subscription based idea where someone's pointing things out to you, that |
| 431 | 01:13:54,120 --> 01:14:01,680 | might be helpful. But you still won't learn how to fucking trade until you start doing this. This is the stage that every single one of my failed students and I |
| 432 | 01:14:01,680 --> 01:14:14,280 | have them. They don't do this part. Every single one of them has not done this enough. If they do this part of it, it will click for them, it will make sense |
| 433 | 01:14:14,280 --> 01:14:20,460 | to them. They will find their model they will find their setup they will trust what they're looking for is going to repeat in the future. They won't over |
| 434 | 01:14:20,460 --> 01:14:29,460 | leverage it because there's no sense of over leveraging trying to get their entire career encapsulated in one trade. That's the secret sauce folks. This is |
| 435 | 01:14:29,460 --> 01:14:36,900 | it. But you don't want to do it because it requires work and you're afraid you might do it wrong. Who's gonna tell you you did it wrong. You shouldn't be |
| 436 | 01:14:36,900 --> 01:14:48,510 | showing your your journal entries to anybody. It should be personal. So anyway, if we're anticipating that price run from up here, down into we'll just use the |
| 437 | 01:14:48,570 --> 01:15:00,720 | easiest one which is the sell side liquidity pool here. So from premium to discount. We have a inefficiency here. If we were framing that red line to The |
| 438 | 01:15:00,750 --> 01:15:16,050 | main threshold of the 50 Minute bearish order block if that was the context of framing for premium to discount? Could we take a short in here? Or add to it? To |
| 439 | 01:15:16,050 --> 01:15:17,850 | your question, I'll give you a second to get to drink real quick. |
| 440 | 01:15:25,050 --> 01:15:33,060 | Have a lot of fun this morning. If we take the FIB and for the folks who have been with me for a while you already know this my students. |
| 441 | 01:15:53,310 --> 01:16:05,400 | Okay, here's the halfway point or equilibrium between that premium to discount range high, the target, which is this, what kind of range is this? It's an |
| 442 | 01:16:05,400 --> 01:16:14,610 | implied dealing range, that means it's not been delivered it up from here, and we anticipate and we're expecting price to drop to this level here and lower. So |
| 443 | 01:16:14,700 --> 01:16:25,020 | that is a implied dealing range. When the market starts booking price, and we get this big run here, does this drop or inefficiency sell side unbalanced buys |
| 444 | 01:16:25,020 --> 01:16:38,850 | inefficiency, does that occur above or below? Equilibrium of that implied dealing range meaning is it above or below the 50%? Level? It's below. So while |
| 445 | 01:16:38,850 --> 01:16:50,220 | we are willing to observe and anticipate price being sensitive at the 25% to 50% level, we can't take a new position, we can't add a position we can't add to a |
| 446 | 01:16:50,220 --> 01:16:58,230 | pyramid a position, we can't do that here. This is just an observation level to make sure everything is calibrated in our favor, still. And we're just going to |
| 447 | 01:16:58,230 --> 01:17:09,750 | ride the great ride to trade. Now. If this inefficiency would have been at or above halfway point, that's where I do my pyramid. Once we get below the halfway |
| 448 | 01:17:09,750 --> 01:17:21,270 | point, the probability shift in the manner that I am not willing to assume the risk because if I start building more positions down here, we've already touched |
| 449 | 01:17:21,540 --> 01:17:30,120 | the level and it could come back to that later on in the deep retracement. And we also have levels like The New Day opening gap low that I would have all that |
| 450 | 01:17:30,120 --> 01:17:40,320 | new position sitting in drawdown which would erode into open existing unrealized profits. So when I'm pyramiding, there's a context and a protocol in which I |
| 451 | 01:17:40,320 --> 01:17:51,960 | have to adhere to. And if I'm trading with a preconceived idea that we're going lower. I'm not just randomly picking something, I know what range I'm in. And |
| 452 | 01:17:51,960 --> 01:18:04,500 | this range is the range that we would use in initially. If we are creating inefficiencies in here are order blocks, something like that. I won't use that |
| 453 | 01:18:04,500 --> 01:18:13,830 | as a new entry for adding to the existing short position. It has to be in the upper half. It has to be in the premium, which is why I taught that in my core |
| 454 | 01:18:13,830 --> 01:18:22,500 | content. So I mean, you you you fight kicking and screaming that I'm hiding stuff from you, I'm not hiding anything. I've literally laid it out there on a |
| 455 | 01:18:22,500 --> 01:18:32,040 | silver platter, begging you please, please prove me wrong. And everybody that goes in there trying to prove me wrong ends up making money ends up passing on |
| 456 | 01:18:32,040 --> 01:18:39,480 | the account challenges and gets payouts or trades with a live account and starts making more money than their job. Given enough time. That's the outcome. |
| 457 | 01:18:40,050 --> 01:18:46,290 | Everyone because some of you are going to tap out because it's going to be too hard. It's gonna take too much work too much time it's taken longer than I |
| 458 | 01:18:46,290 --> 01:18:55,590 | thought I could. I'm not gonna do this over the weekend now. So the price has extreme sensitivity there. So look at look at the algorithmic delivery there. |
| 459 | 01:18:55,620 --> 01:19:04,200 | Okay, one quarter level of this sell side and bounce buys 100 Fishing is that made up bullshit. I've been preaching this for years. Precision appreciate it |
| 460 | 01:19:04,200 --> 01:19:14,310 | for years. This level okay, this stuff right here you will see Chris Laurie talking about that. I'm sorry, I'm gonna go there. Chris Laurie is not teaching |
| 461 | 01:19:14,310 --> 01:19:28,470 | you this that's just the facts. The guy he learned it from don't know either. That level is the exact mean threshold that Chris Laurie won't teach you. This |
| 462 | 01:19:28,470 --> 01:19:37,800 | level here is the exact level that only ICT will teach you. And that's not ego. I'm just putting down 10 posts, okay, because there's too many people out there |
| 463 | 01:19:38,130 --> 01:19:51,120 | saying and it's I'm gonna remind you all again, here's a $5 million US dollar bounty. Find my stuff in print in Video Anywhere prior to 1996 it will not exist |
| 464 | 01:19:51,150 --> 01:20:01,470 | anywhere before I spoke it it didn't exist $5 million folks. I'll come to your fucking house and you can live stream it. You will get a bank check. nobody's |
| 465 | 01:20:01,470 --> 01:20:09,150 | doing that. Because it ain't real. All that's lies, all that stuff is from people that are trying to market something themselves and they can't stand the |
| 466 | 01:20:09,150 --> 01:20:17,280 | fact that I'm out here killing it and creating monsters, and you are all living testimonies that really works. It makes real money. It's absolutely how the |
| 467 | 01:20:17,280 --> 01:20:27,120 | markets book price in a fucking thing, no one person that anywhere can do anything about it. Think about that, at three o'clock. That perfect high is the |
| 468 | 01:20:27,120 --> 01:20:35,850 | very level I teach doesn't mean threshold is a bearish order block, then the price run begins, the price goes to a very specific price level. Find this and |
| 469 | 01:20:35,850 --> 01:20:52,110 | Wycoff it's not there. It's not there, folks. That's perfect delivery. You can't improve on that. You can't make it better. The logic behind it the the reasons |
| 470 | 01:20:52,110 --> 01:20:58,260 | why price should behave a certain way. How do you trust the trade? Why don't you get scared? How do you know to put your stop where you put your stop loss? All |
| 471 | 01:20:58,260 --> 01:21:06,720 | this stuff. But you can't reasonably and realistically expect to learn what it is I'm willing to teach you in a short little span of time, because it's |
| 472 | 01:21:06,720 --> 01:21:12,780 | inconvenient for you to do a little bit more work than you thought it was gonna take. I'm sorry. But I already told you you have to have patience in the |
| 473 | 01:21:12,780 --> 01:21:13,200 | beginning. |
| 474 | 01:21:16,470 --> 01:21:18,210 | The week survive here? |
| 475 | 01:21:20,880 --> 01:21:30,390 | That's a bit wrong. The strong survive here, the weak don't survive. So you're probably asking yourself, what is this negative 2.5 standard deviation level? |
| 476 | 01:21:30,390 --> 01:21:42,240 | What is that? Well, this is where the inception of the move began, right here. And the fulcrum point is right there. So your must not like it's talking to you. |
| 477 | 01:21:43,590 --> 01:21:48,240 | I'm hungry. I saw a guy make a post. |
| 478 | 01:21:49,590 --> 01:22:03,240 | I got the sound of ICT swollen saliva in my mind, and I can't sleep now. Well, now you got stomach gurgling hunger pains. And that's added to the list now. So |
| 479 | 01:22:03,270 --> 01:22:13,080 | if we add the Fibonacci level here, here's halfway point, the high the low. And now I'm going to add the standard deviation projections. Okay. How do you use |
| 480 | 01:22:13,080 --> 01:22:23,190 | standard deviations ICT? Okay, go over to your Fibonacci. Now, here's the part that everybody else out there is not putting into fucking books correctly. Okay. |
| 481 | 01:22:23,310 --> 01:22:31,410 | And then right away, we're gonna have a whole new wave of ICT standard deviation projections in new books, little booklets on Amazon, okay, I promise you, |
| 482 | 01:22:31,410 --> 01:22:41,460 | they'll be up here in 30 days. And they'll still be in complete the red level, then here's the sell side liquidity, okay? This is a finite level, this |
| 483 | 01:22:41,460 --> 01:22:49,260 | something I know is real, it's going to have a real impact on price. It's going to draw price down there. The market the algorithm is going to reprice there, |
| 484 | 01:22:49,260 --> 01:22:59,820 | because there's real orders down there. How many orders is to take? One? What? Yeah, the market is gonna go to old highs, old lows and inefficiencies whether |
| 485 | 01:22:59,820 --> 01:23:06,390 | there's real large amounts of orders or not. That's what I'm trying to tell you. It's not the buying selling pressure that does this, the market is going to do |
| 486 | 01:23:06,390 --> 01:23:13,890 | this like a video game, it's going to go to its boundaries, and stop, turn around and go the other direction until it's met with some other reason to go |
| 487 | 01:23:13,890 --> 01:23:23,010 | the other direction, or consolidate. That's what's going on. It's rigged. Okay, it's rigged. It's always been rigged before the markets were electronic men sat |
| 488 | 01:23:23,010 --> 01:23:29,130 | around and booked the price themselves. That was it. That's the way they did it, folks. I don't give a fuck, who tells you otherwise. That's exactly what it's |
| 489 | 01:23:29,130 --> 01:23:39,030 | always been. It's always been that way. And if that scares you, that unsettles you. If it shakes your whole foundations and belief structure, good. Good, let |
| 490 | 01:23:39,030 --> 01:23:46,410 | it happen. Because it's advantageous for you to accept the fact that this is the way it is, it's an advantage for you to know that it's rigged, and you can go |
| 491 | 01:23:46,410 --> 01:23:52,950 | and look for these things that can be exploited, you're gonna mess it up, sometimes you're gonna over leverage and hurt yourself, you're getting greedy, |
| 492 | 01:23:53,070 --> 01:24:01,500 | you're gonna anticipate it being near before it's actually later. It's all part of this. That's what makes this hard. That part makes it hard. But the X the |
| 493 | 01:24:01,500 --> 01:24:02,130 | absolute |
| 494 | 01:24:07,319 --> 01:24:18,719 | foundation to why prices go up and down and where they stopped and where they turn. That's not random folks, that's absolutely not random. This level here, |
| 495 | 01:24:18,749 --> 01:24:29,969 | what I do is I start looking for standard deviations that get at that level or past it. Okay, and I'll show you what I mean by that. If we are looking at this |
| 496 | 01:24:29,969 --> 01:24:41,639 | range from here to that low, that is equivalent to one standard deviation. So about this far here would be standard deviation, negative one. About here be |
| 497 | 01:24:41,759 --> 01:24:54,809 | standard deviation, negative two, and this will be negative standard deviation 2.5. So meaning that here would be one, see it right here. One and a half, two. |
| 498 | 01:24:55,709 --> 01:25:05,789 | Now two is good. Why is too good? Because it's below where the sell side is. So look at the reaction here, we go to it here, and we consolidate. And then we run |
| 499 | 01:25:05,789 --> 01:25:18,959 | one more time. Here's negative standard deviation 2.5. Right there with down to the random level of a five minute discount by sundown self sufficiency blow. Let |
| 500 | 01:25:18,959 --> 01:25:25,319 | me show you here. And moving into where she can read the levels on the annotations. Let me go back to |
| 501 | 01:25:26,609 --> 01:25:27,539 | showing you this. |
| 502 | 01:25:30,180 --> 01:25:46,590 | So what I'm doing is I'm looking for a convergence of standard deviations and reaching into specific PD arrays. So yes, below this level there sulci. But it |
| 503 | 01:25:46,590 --> 01:25:59,490 | can be overzealous and dig into a deeper discount where that five minute fair value gap is. So this is good. But if we use standard deviation three down here |
| 504 | 01:26:04,439 --> 01:26:05,249 | not showing you |
| 505 | 01:26:07,770 --> 01:26:21,990 | the labels for negative three here, which does what it trades to and just past which is allowing for what Oh, Mohawk at the 15 Minute, bar set analysis on |
| 506 | 01:26:21,990 --> 01:26:30,360 | efficiency consequent encroachment level, that's what that orange level is how we started this live stream today. That would be the best case scenario for me |
| 507 | 01:26:30,420 --> 01:26:39,420 | today. Remember, I said I wanted to see how we trade at that level. Look how many times we've been to here consolidating, consolidating, consolidating wick |
| 508 | 01:26:39,420 --> 01:26:52,110 | through it to take out that low, and we're just hanging around. What is it respecting also look at the random price action. Just do there. Look at the |
| 509 | 01:26:52,110 --> 01:27:08,550 | price action around that five minute by Sanibel sauce on efficiency. Hammered hammered, respecting it, the low car prices gravitating these levels here, |
| 510 | 01:27:08,760 --> 01:27:20,820 | folks, that's real, real support resistance. When you anticipate that, and anticipate how price should behave around it, if the price run has gone done, |
| 511 | 01:27:20,820 --> 01:27:28,830 | it's run to where I was looking for. Remember, we started this whole presentation around the 15 Minute, discount Sanibel suicide efficiency, halfway |
| 512 | 01:27:28,830 --> 01:27:41,730 | point and consequent encouragement. It has delivered every possible scenario that would satisfy me for a London session. Once it does, so all it's going to |
| 513 | 01:27:41,730 --> 01:27:51,750 | do is consolidate and work with the levels that's already been predefined. I've been jawboning this whole time, in his whole time this markets been respecting |
| 514 | 01:27:51,750 --> 01:28:06,300 | the levels I'm showing you here. Do you want to trade short up here and here, hold all way down to the best case scenario and likely lose unrealized profits |
| 515 | 01:28:06,360 --> 01:28:16,530 | because you're trying to be greedy. Versus this is the easiest low hanging fruit objective. the sell side liquidity. Let me take these levels off here. Let's go |
| 516 | 01:28:16,530 --> 01:28:17,490 | back to a five minute. |
| 517 | 01:28:28,140 --> 01:28:36,330 | You want to sell short here or here at a silver bullet and insist that it goes down to this level here, which is the 15 minute time frame consequent question |
| 518 | 01:28:36,330 --> 01:28:48,570 | out of the by Sanibel self sufficiency that's here that you won't you won't be satisfied once you get all that. Versus this makes the most sense. It's easy, |
| 519 | 01:28:48,570 --> 01:28:59,370 | it's obvious, it's so glaringly obvious that the market will likely go down to that level. It's relatively equal lows. It will upset anyone that's already |
| 520 | 01:28:59,370 --> 01:29:09,540 | long. Using this as a trailing stop loss for some people, that's fine. It's going to go there. But if it goes here, we want to see it go through it with |
| 521 | 01:29:09,540 --> 01:29:10,110 | speed. |
| 522 | 01:29:11,249 --> 01:29:11,609 | What |
| 523 | 01:29:13,649 --> 01:29:21,899 | he's talking about when he talks about in the live streams or when I'm doing recorded executions, and I'll annotate live right before the market does it I'll |
| 524 | 01:29:21,899 --> 01:29:31,649 | say I want to see big candles, I want to see speed and distance. That's going to occur right below that low. I want to see it aggressively accelerate right down |
| 525 | 01:29:31,649 --> 01:29:43,259 | in there, proving that it wants to go for this one. So I may not take a partial here. If I'm really confident it's going to go lower. It'll be a full Paul, a |
| 526 | 01:29:43,259 --> 01:29:45,149 | for Paul is. |
| 527 | 01:29:52,829 --> 01:30:04,019 | For pause, no partial taken. I mean I'm in and I'm running the whole show to target That means I'm absolutely not without a shadow of doubt on one side, I |
| 528 | 01:30:04,019 --> 01:30:13,829 | know I'm dialed in, and I'm staying with it new partial, again taken. If I'm in a condition or climate where I could expect volatility the higher than normal, |
| 529 | 01:30:14,429 --> 01:30:24,809 | then I'm going to be more likely to take partials. And maybe maybe add them back later on. But most time I'm walked. So the way I mentor you, the way I teach you |
| 530 | 01:30:24,809 --> 01:30:34,289 | is to start like that be content with if you were shorting up here or shorted up here, be content with taking a partial below there, because you don't know if |
| 531 | 01:30:34,289 --> 01:30:46,949 | it's going to continue lower. You'll learn that over time. But if we see speed, and distance like this, then it's very favorable to hold for something like |
| 532 | 01:30:46,949 --> 01:30:54,359 | this, and maybe even get down into this inefficiency, which is what we clearly seen here. So we went down to that 15 minute timeframe, consequent Grossman. |
| 533 | 01:30:55,649 --> 01:31:06,239 | level here to orange. And all these levels, I don't I only include these things on the chart and annotate the charts. To me, this is extremely annoying. Having |
| 534 | 01:31:06,239 --> 01:31:18,509 | these things on my chart, like I don't have that there. It doesn't imply that I'm trying to be somehow somehow snooty or snobbish. Because I don't like to |
| 535 | 01:31:18,509 --> 01:31:27,359 | have anything on my chart. To be told it's very distracting for me to do executed recordings and annotate the chart as I go, because I have to think |
| 536 | 01:31:27,359 --> 01:31:37,739 | about spelling something correctly. Keeping it out of my way, managing it. Did I say it right? You could sometimes in the past I've called a SEBI a busy. Because |
| 537 | 01:31:37,739 --> 01:31:45,209 | I'm doing it on a one second, not sorry, I'm usually doing it like on a one minute chart, or sometimes on a second chart. And I have to think about what it |
| 538 | 01:31:45,209 --> 01:31:54,839 | is I'm trying to do think about how I want to articulate it to you type it out, and all at the same time managed to trade real money. So it's, it's a whole lot |
| 539 | 01:31:54,839 --> 01:32:04,109 | going on, folks. And some of you that are highly critical of me don't really appreciate the level of focus that's required. And it's challenging for me with |
| 540 | 01:32:04,109 --> 01:32:15,239 | someone that has the difficulties I have, sometimes I'm focusing. But these levels are simply written on a notepad. So when I say I can trade with a |
| 541 | 01:32:15,239 --> 01:32:25,079 | notepad, I don't need to see a live chart, I can look at the ticker tape on the bottom of CNBC every 10 minutes, I could look at that, and trade off that. |
| 542 | 01:32:26,069 --> 01:32:32,999 | Because I'm watching time, I'm watching time, I don't need to know what the highest highs and lows little the last minute candle, the last five minute Can I |
| 543 | 01:32:32,999 --> 01:32:42,449 | don't that's all that's all extra. That just makes it even better for me. But in the beginning of the session, I need to know is what's the previous high and |
| 544 | 01:32:42,449 --> 01:32:55,829 | low. What's the range I'm looking at? Well, that's this candle right here. This candles low. This candle is high. That's my premium range, those two levels, I |
| 545 | 01:32:55,829 --> 01:33:10,709 | want to see price, stay below that after three o'clock. And then I want to see how we gravitate to and through this fair value got under here. If you don't |
| 546 | 01:33:10,709 --> 01:33:19,949 | want to see this portion, that's the last thing I say. I want to show you this overlay. Oh, the inversion Federica before in the stream. That way you can test |
| 547 | 01:33:19,949 --> 01:33:27,389 | yourself and see that your chart shows what it is that you should be seeing. But all of these levels here that you've seen highlighted over here, just in the |
| 548 | 01:33:27,389 --> 01:33:37,079 | same order, and it's listed here. That's what my Notepad is just those levels. And what they are, like I'm showing you right here, so it's not like I'm hiding |
| 549 | 01:33:37,079 --> 01:33:46,859 | some kind of secret recipe on a new pet. It doesn't ever show us his worksheet. Well, it's I am actually I'm showing you where it is and where it's derived from |
| 550 | 01:33:46,889 --> 01:33:58,589 | on the charts. When I'm pointing out certain things like the other day I pointed out the levels are here. By the way, I'm rolled over to December today. So |
| 551 | 01:33:58,619 --> 01:34:09,269 | yesterday you saw it took a live trade in NASDAQ traded with the September delivery contract for 2023. And now following in only focusing on the December |
| 552 | 01:34:09,269 --> 01:34:20,549 | contract so that way you can you just discontinued the September contract. So the symbol for this is here and q z 2023. So if you're looking at es it would be |
| 553 | 01:34:20,549 --> 01:34:36,539 | es Z 2023 But over here the sell off in here I probably be better suited transitioning to the September contract because that's what I was using. |
| 554 | 01:34:36,540 --> 01:34:37,950 | So give me give me a second here |
| 555 | 01:34:43,500 --> 01:34:58,440 | Alright, so here's the business on yesterday's trade, when I was working with and the information was in my charts. Alright, so you can see this city here on |
| 556 | 01:34:58,440 --> 01:35:10,800 | the 15 minute timeframe. This is from Wednesday, September 6, and this inefficiency from this Campbell's low |
| 557 | 01:35:16,229 --> 01:35:23,819 | if you're enjoying this, if it's been helpful to you, I would greatly appreciate you taking a second to hit the thumbs up, it does encourage me it doesn't make |
| 558 | 01:35:23,819 --> 01:35:33,269 | me any more money and your thumbs down don't really hurt my feelings because it's no big deal. I know it's the same 15 Guys from Texas Sockpuppet accounts |
| 559 | 01:35:34,769 --> 01:35:44,849 | the sell side and downspouts and efficiency here. That was what was shaded. And you saw when I shared the result of the trade I felt that we could draw up up |
| 560 | 01:35:44,849 --> 01:35:55,889 | into that so driving up into this would be above all this order flow here. And the only inefficiency above price yesterday was is area in here. So with that in |
| 561 | 01:35:55,889 --> 01:36:09,899 | mind scrub on over here, here we are is yesterday's price action. And if you remember the I don't know if I did a live stream or the pre recorded session but |
| 562 | 01:36:09,899 --> 01:36:20,399 | the last video commentary I did I told you that I'm not interested in trading until we get outside of this buyside imbalance so some efficiency |
| 563 | 01:36:21,779 --> 01:36:23,489 | written here on the daily chart |
| 564 | 01:36:24,869 --> 01:36:30,929 | Okay, so let me let me take this off for a second and go to the daily chart and I'll show you what I'm talking about |
| 565 | 01:36:37,199 --> 01:36:48,929 | man I wish I had this coming up as a triggers is something that would have been very useful to me this candles high this candles low so this one big candle |
| 566 | 01:36:48,929 --> 01:36:58,379 | right here that's the buy side imbalance on efficiency. I said I would not be really all that interested in trading until we get on the outside of the buy |
| 567 | 01:36:58,379 --> 01:37:09,329 | side of balance cells on efficiency meaning you would have to get above this low light candle or the below this high of that candle and yesterday we did that so |
| 568 | 01:37:09,359 --> 01:37:10,709 | if we go back into |
| 569 | 01:37:18,210 --> 01:37:32,550 | inefficiency and here's that bar Sanibel sauce on efficiency high and over. It's the daily chart the higher level. So I felt that we were likely to draw back |
| 570 | 01:37:32,550 --> 01:37:45,090 | down into that. And I wanted to see once I got back home from taking my son to get his CAT scans and MRIs. The I don't remember I told you it beginning stream |
| 571 | 01:37:45,090 --> 01:37:51,960 | but we won't know what those results are for the folks that are concerned and I appreciate that concern but we won't know until Wednesday so we're doing a video |
| 572 | 01:37:52,950 --> 01:38:04,230 | conference with the doctors so they're going to review everything but I wanted to see after I got home if we went back inside the bison analysis on efficiency |
| 573 | 01:38:04,500 --> 01:38:10,800 | or if we repelled from it you can see we repelled on it. My concern was and this is why I shared in |
| 574 | 01:38:15,810 --> 01:38:25,020 | I don't remember if I tweeted it or if it was just in Patrick Whelan's live stream. I know I posted be content with enough and just don't worry about |
| 575 | 01:38:25,020 --> 01:38:33,240 | anything else. A lot of other folks were wanting to see it can break down more. And soon as it starts doing this consolidation stuff like this, what a higher |
| 576 | 01:38:33,240 --> 01:38:45,930 | timeframe array like it is here to daily by sentimental suicide efficiency high. That's a real support factor. And if you start seeing elements of it not wanting |
| 577 | 01:38:45,930 --> 01:38:56,190 | to go below that and the only went below it just to get into the inefficiencies over here. So this area right here in price below that, it makes perfect sense |
| 578 | 01:38:56,190 --> 01:39:04,260 | where to drop down into that because it had to clean up this little inefficiency. Now it's efficiently delivered and then now you see aggressively |
| 579 | 01:39:04,260 --> 01:39:11,880 | run higher. So I wasn't in front of the charts, you'll be able to see all this stuff or anticipate how behaved I would have been all over it right in this |
| 580 | 01:39:11,880 --> 01:39:22,080 | decline right there. We're getting a lot of time right I'll tell you why. But the low this boss Annabelle, so it's an efficiency high on the daily chart. It |
| 581 | 01:39:22,080 --> 01:39:34,710 | drops down into this area because this is the only area below this level that needed to be efficiently repriced, to this is one single candle that was moved |
| 582 | 01:39:34,710 --> 01:39:38,070 | higher versus something like this |
| 583 | 01:39:46,500 --> 01:39:58,680 | this candle that is right above my cursor over here, that candles high in its entire range. Then this candle here. It's moved back and forth between those two |
| 584 | 01:39:58,680 --> 01:40:07,500 | price levels. And then we started this candle here and it ran away. And then we have one single delivery of upside, or by side delivery on that one candle, |
| 585 | 01:40:07,890 --> 01:40:20,010 | meaning that this went back and forth here, then left it. So this is more efficiently delivered because it's spent more time going back and forth between |
| 586 | 01:40:20,010 --> 01:40:31,710 | that shaded area. Whereas this candle only has one individual impulsive price move and it was directional, it went higher. And it's all one single |
| 587 | 01:40:31,710 --> 01:40:44,400 | encapsulation of buyside delivery, one candle movement only, since it created that candle until we traded down into it over here, price Never overlapped in |
| 588 | 01:40:44,400 --> 01:40:56,580 | that range at all. It kept running, running, running, running running, this is a deferred. rebalance, a fair value gap is a deferred rebounds, it's going to be |
| 589 | 01:40:57,090 --> 01:41:08,970 | referred to in a future time. It'll reprice back to it at a later time. So it's a deferred. redelivery versus a immediate rebalance. Whereas if you have |
| 590 | 01:41:08,970 --> 01:41:19,230 | something like this, and say this candle here opened up in traded really do tick down in the same candle after the one impulsive candle like this, or here. The |
| 591 | 01:41:19,230 --> 01:41:28,170 | Next came the open and traded down to previous candles high. If I saw that, and I'm bullish, that's what I call my immediate rebounds. That is one of the |
| 592 | 01:41:28,170 --> 01:41:38,340 | strongest absolutely fucking strongest time the Murph dub the time to market perfectly when you're going to see acceleration, price magnitude to the upside, |
| 593 | 01:41:38,550 --> 01:41:48,840 | that will be the very candle or the immediately next candle. So there's the only caveat is if it doesn't run on that one, it's the next one, it doesn't. Here's |
| 594 | 01:41:48,840 --> 01:41:56,970 | some of your notes for the folks that have had the indignity of the the enormity the endurance that stay with this string this long. If it doesn't do it by the |
| 595 | 01:41:56,970 --> 01:42:03,870 | next candle, after the immediate rebounds, you're going to consolidate or reverse. Because that's something that you'll want to hold on to if you're long, |
| 596 | 01:42:04,020 --> 01:42:16,470 | no. capital preservation pokes, that's more important than making money. There's lots of ways to make money. But there's so few ways for people to be able to |
| 597 | 01:42:16,470 --> 01:42:26,160 | hone in on how they wreck themselves, and then build replacement theology around that. So that way you don't do those things under yourself, there has to be |
| 598 | 01:42:26,160 --> 01:42:33,780 | protocols for you to be able to know these are times where I would like to see it perform. And I'm willing to take large risks. But as soon as I get |
| 599 | 01:42:33,780 --> 01:42:42,900 | confirmation, it's probably not right for me, or I'm offside, I have to kill it and be content with killing it, abort it, there's no reason for you to hold on |
| 600 | 01:42:42,900 --> 01:42:52,860 | to something that's going to be unfavorable for you are likely to be unfavorable. You don't want to clinic today with all this stuff. And one last |
| 601 | 01:42:52,860 --> 01:43:03,750 | thing. Anyway, the the price runs up in here. So getting aggressive but right in here. I was watching how folks were wanting to see this in that live stream. |
| 602 | 01:43:05,070 --> 01:43:12,810 | There's a few of them that I listened to. And I like watching their chat window. Because when their members are chatty, and they think Oh yes, definitely gonna |
| 603 | 01:43:12,810 --> 01:43:22,500 | do this, it's definitely going to do that. I love seeing that as a public sentiment indicator. Okay, it's real people's opinions, sharing what they think |
| 604 | 01:43:22,500 --> 01:43:30,570 | the market is going to do at that very moment when I'm looking at price and I'm really trying to measure everyone that live streams and their audience between |
| 605 | 01:43:30,600 --> 01:43:43,650 | 930 and 10 o'clock that really helps me frame the the bias or a narrative what I think is going to get most likely delivered in terms of price. So we drew up |
| 606 | 01:43:43,650 --> 01:43:49,020 | into this area here on this inefficiency on the |
| 607 | 01:43:50,760 --> 01:43:52,980 | hourly chart, let me shoot that arrow chart real quick |
| 608 | 01:44:05,670 --> 01:44:06,420 | five minutes or |
| 609 | 01:44:09,720 --> 01:44:22,290 | 50 minutes or so here's the inefficiency here this candles low just candles high and put it backwards because that's what messes me up which is also why you want |
| 610 | 01:44:22,290 --> 01:44:25,050 | to annotate your chart so you can annotate like this |
| 611 | 01:44:41,640 --> 01:44:50,100 | Okay, so now I know what you're looking at. It's a 50 minute time frame. It's framed on a 15 and timeframe. What kind of inefficiency is it city Why is it |
| 612 | 01:44:50,100 --> 01:45:05,670 | city because it's down close candle city is down close. Vissi is up close. And then over here I'm gonna use levels I tweeted the other day, I'm gonna try |
| 613 | 01:45:05,670 --> 01:45:21,000 | random. So we traded up into it here at 930. So what is 930 10 o'clock? That's amateur hour. Every Tom, Dick and Harry every Romper Room dollar menu, |
| 614 | 01:45:21,000 --> 01:45:32,700 | mentorship, Guru is going to be pretending they know what's going to happen. And they get sliced and diced and chopped up and or made redundant. The market |
| 615 | 01:45:32,700 --> 01:45:40,020 | trades up into that inefficiency here, right above a previous high. That was fun and o'clock. So we'll drop down into a five minute chart. |
| 616 | 01:45:47,250 --> 01:46:02,100 | Again, I'm reviewing yesterday's price action, by the way. So here is what was on the menu. For yesterday. The market traded up aggressively, took by stops |
| 617 | 01:46:02,100 --> 01:46:13,440 | here, traded aggressively below the short term low. This area in here, we'll look at that on a one minute chart, I wanted to be able to use this if it was |
| 618 | 01:46:13,440 --> 01:46:19,260 | going to offer to me it really didn't give me the opportunity to do it. But you'll see it a fair a gap over here, I wanted to treat it in version fair, |
| 619 | 01:46:19,260 --> 01:46:27,810 | right you got. But it didn't give me any opportunity to use it. So I didn't want to take the chart levels off here knowing that I'd be talking about today |
| 620 | 01:46:27,810 --> 01:46:36,270 | because I was going to do the review last night. But I just couldn't get my self to sit down for the trust too many concerns about my son. So after a four hour |
| 621 | 01:46:36,270 --> 01:46:45,390 | nap, I'm obviously with you all here. But I didn't want to take it off. And then you compare and contrast what I shared on yesterday's chart and have somebody |
| 622 | 01:46:45,390 --> 01:46:52,290 | say, What were those levels there? What was that all about? I want to talk about what it was I was wanting to see and what didn't manifest itself because if it |
| 623 | 01:46:52,290 --> 01:47:01,410 | would have presented, I would have added to and it didn't give me anything. So it is what it is the running up into that inefficiency on the 15th and timeframe |
| 624 | 01:47:01,410 --> 01:47:12,060 | city. And that aggressive run all of this here was a built in premium, just the take the market rate back down to a deep discount, which was that daily boss and |
| 625 | 01:47:12,060 --> 01:47:21,390 | also sign efficiency high. Remember, in the last commentary I didn't rely on, I don't know if it's livestream or recorded. But on the YouTube. It was commentary |
| 626 | 01:47:21,420 --> 01:47:32,850 | for what I expect going forward, and how I'm gonna sit on my hands until we get outside of this imbalance, which was again, framed on the daily chart. So here's |
| 627 | 01:47:32,850 --> 01:47:41,430 | the level that there's the high of it. So we went up into this inefficiency, just to trade back down to that daily by Sanibel self sufficiency high. And |
| 628 | 01:47:41,430 --> 01:47:53,280 | what's this right here? What are these lows right here? What would be residing below those lows sell side. So we have sell side liquidity here, sell stops. For |
| 629 | 01:47:53,280 --> 01:48:01,530 | people that have been profitable going up, we consolidated and then we left that consolidation trade up into a deep premium. Where would be long term trend |
| 630 | 01:48:01,530 --> 01:48:10,170 | following models had their stop loss where where they had them. Below these lows in short term, aggressive traders would have below that low that low that low, |
| 631 | 01:48:10,350 --> 01:48:18,600 | you need to book map that bubble, something to draw a bubble on a on a time and price axis. |
| 632 | 01:48:19,649 --> 01:48:20,939 | I'm not even sure it has the time axis. |
| 633 | 01:48:22,439 --> 01:48:31,889 | It's obvious that's going to be self stop below these lows. So this is the larger pool of liquidity. And it also is just in the same proximity of that |
| 634 | 01:48:31,889 --> 01:48:42,599 | daily Boston MLS also inefficiency high. So it's reasonable to anticipate the trade back down that level by in and of itself, then you have the agreement also |
| 635 | 01:48:42,599 --> 01:48:52,049 | that there's relative equal lows down there. So there's going to be real orders sell stops below there. So it is for the sake of our discussion today. And every |
| 636 | 01:48:52,049 --> 01:49:01,319 | time we sit down, if the market is rigged, and it goes up to allow people that are in the know, that's all part of the club that you're not a part of, okay, |
| 637 | 01:49:01,349 --> 01:49:08,669 | I'm teaching you how to get into the back door. But you're not a card carrying member of that club, that card carrying member of the club that knows that the |
| 638 | 01:49:08,669 --> 01:49:17,759 | markets going up here just to go down there waiting for price to get up at a really expensive range. So they can sell short. But they have to have |
| 639 | 01:49:17,759 --> 01:49:25,379 | individuals that are going to be offering them the other side of their trade, which is why they gave you this short term high here. They drop it down. That |
| 640 | 01:49:25,379 --> 01:49:37,349 | builds in or engineers liquidity. That's what this is here. So when the market runs up there, what is the narrative? what's occurring here? The markets going |
| 641 | 01:49:37,349 --> 01:49:46,859 | up to go down? Is it going to some random level now that 15 minute timeframe city if we're bearish Okay, remember what that teach you this this morning so |
| 642 | 01:49:46,859 --> 01:49:55,049 | far? If we're bearish in the markets trading up into an inefficiency, meaning this 15 minute timeframe. If we're bearish do we want to see it trade above |
| 643 | 01:49:55,049 --> 01:50:05,219 | halfway, or consequent parchment? In other words, let's go back to the 15 minute timeframe. So, now it's about acrobatics. But it's good medicine. Good exercise. |
| 644 | 01:50:05,819 --> 01:50:19,229 | So we're imagining that we'll take all the standard deviations off because it is going to be a distraction. This is the inefficiency. And I'm going to change the |
| 645 | 01:50:19,229 --> 01:50:33,809 | color up here to white. Okay, that way we can see it pop inside there. Now, looking at that, from the context of the five minute chart, here's that same 15 |
| 646 | 01:50:33,809 --> 01:50:51,539 | minute. So center balance by center efficiency. At 930, the market rallies up. Where are the bodies stopping? Are they being controlled? Absolutely, is buying |
| 647 | 01:50:51,539 --> 01:50:59,069 | and selling pressure, everybody that using everything that's available in terms of retail logic, everybody's coming together with all of the randomness, how |
| 648 | 01:50:59,069 --> 01:51:04,529 | many traders are going to trade with supply and demand at that time? How many traders going to trade with harmonic patterns? How many people are gonna be |
| 649 | 01:51:04,529 --> 01:51:12,449 | trading? Wycoff? How many people are gonna be trading to simply Support Resistance? How many people are gonna be using Gann? Elliott Wave? All of them |
| 650 | 01:51:12,449 --> 01:51:21,389 | are gonna be doing something different. And yet you are going to believe the bullshit that people say that the markets are absolutely random. And nobody can |
| 651 | 01:51:21,389 --> 01:51:28,739 | know what the market is going to do. When I'm telling you that we're looking for lower prices. We can trust it's going to be lower prices if the bodies which is |
| 652 | 01:51:28,739 --> 01:51:38,789 | what tells you the story, or the bodies respecting this 15 minute, boss. I'm sorry. 15 minutes city? Yes. Is it wicking into it? Yes. Did it Pierce and |
| 653 | 01:51:38,789 --> 01:51:53,129 | breach the halfway point here? No. Did it break down below this up? Close candle right there? Yes. All this is algorithmic, the bodies are telling you the |
| 654 | 01:51:53,129 --> 01:52:04,949 | narrative. Yes, it's bearish. It's really bearish because we can't even go above or even touch the halfway point. By in and of itself, that's wonderful. When I'm |
| 655 | 01:52:04,949 --> 01:52:14,669 | watching price here, I want to see where this came to when it went up in here. I want to see where that candle closes. Does it stay below and outside of that |
| 656 | 01:52:14,909 --> 01:52:23,039 | city? On the 15th? And timeframe, this this shaded area? Yes, it does. So the next one, we open up at rallies up, it should not go above this high or if it |
| 657 | 01:52:23,039 --> 01:52:31,889 | does, it should stop right at that 50%. If it goes above it, the bearish stance that I would have, it needs to be put to the backburner. That means push it |
| 658 | 01:52:31,889 --> 01:52:41,519 | aside, or if I'm gonna trade, accept the feet, and they'll be more willing to take that loss and then waiting for more information. With this insight, we |
| 659 | 01:52:41,519 --> 01:52:42,749 | dropped down into a one minute chart. |
| 660 | 01:52:59,640 --> 01:53:11,250 | So here we are. And this box here is just simply denoting the opening range gap. So right now it's showing electronic trading hours, is regular trading hours. So |
| 661 | 01:53:11,250 --> 01:53:20,250 | when I was I was pointing to this high of that candle, technically, it would be the closing price. But when it's real close like this, I'll just use the high. |
| 662 | 01:53:20,850 --> 01:53:31,620 | It's the easiest low hanging fruit objective, it doesn't need to be perfect for opening range gap. So up here, when we opened up at 930, this run up into that |
| 663 | 01:53:32,850 --> 01:53:44,250 | 15 minute city is just building in that false rally, which is done by me as a Judas swing, it leads people astray. It looks like it's gonna go higher, it |
| 664 | 01:53:44,250 --> 01:53:51,360 | looks bullish and a lot of live streamers, chat windows, were really active saying we're going up, we're going up, we're going up. And that's beautiful. |
| 665 | 01:53:51,390 --> 01:54:02,190 | That's that's poetry to me. When I see when the markets trading at a level, I would anticipate weakness or reasons for that to start going lower. If I see a |
| 666 | 01:54:02,190 --> 01:54:14,610 | lot of chatter in live streamers, chat windows, by their viewers, which are the definition of street money, the people that don't know what's going on if you're |
| 667 | 01:54:14,790 --> 01:54:21,180 | if you do those things. So that's what I'm saying to you. Please don't take this as a derogatory remark. I'm not trying to talk down to you. I'm not trying to be |
| 668 | 01:54:21,180 --> 01:54:31,470 | mean, I'm not trying to troll you. I'm just measuring your perspective, which is very limited, probably most likely to be incorrect. Most times. I'm looking at |
| 669 | 01:54:31,470 --> 01:54:42,600 | that public sentiment aspect that you provide when you make your unsolicited opinions on the internet. I use that as a resource that we can get a real |
| 670 | 01:54:42,600 --> 01:54:53,070 | measurement of what the average person is in that's uninformed, has no ability to read price properly. Most times at a time when I'm highly favoring a lower |
| 671 | 01:54:53,310 --> 01:55:08,280 | delivery price. You're getting the perfect scenario of when smart money is going to operate. versus when the the epitome of retail, the least informed traders, |
| 672 | 01:55:08,550 --> 01:55:15,090 | the least likely to succeed. How do I know that they're in other people's live streams in the chat window talking about what they think is going to happen. |
| 673 | 01:55:16,410 --> 01:55:23,310 | They will have their own live stream, they wouldn't be on live streams at all, they would be trading. So I'm not in other people's live streams to learn how to |
| 674 | 01:55:23,310 --> 01:55:29,160 | trade. I mean, they're exploiting their audience. That's what I'm doing. And you can hate me for that. But I'm being honest, I'm telling you, that's what I'm |
| 675 | 01:55:29,160 --> 01:55:38,850 | doing. That's the only value that their chat window has. And I'm not learning anybody else's stuff, because nobody else is gonna be better than me. And that's |
| 676 | 01:55:38,850 --> 01:55:48,180 | just the reality. So this is a regular trading hour session chart. It allows you to denote where the opening range gap is. And the opening range gap is where we |
| 677 | 01:55:48,180 --> 01:55:59,370 | close the previous day. At 415, which is when the closing bell rings at four o'clock, and then the next 15 minutes, then there's settlement, there's |
| 678 | 01:55:59,370 --> 01:56:10,710 | electronic trading going on until five o'clock. I'm not factoring that, what I'm showing you is the difference between 415. And then that have on Friday, when |
| 679 | 01:56:10,710 --> 01:56:19,710 | we're dealing with Monday, but on any other day, like for instance, if we looked at today's opening, when we open at 930, we'll be looking at wherever we closed |
| 680 | 01:56:19,950 --> 01:56:31,530 | at the session set settlement to where we open at 930. But on Mondays, you're going to be looking at where the 415 closes on a Friday to where we open on a |
| 681 | 01:56:31,530 --> 01:56:43,410 | Monday at 930 here. So that big large gap there. That isn't that is a real liquidity void. Okay, this over here, this is a fair bank gap in the form of a |
| 682 | 01:56:43,410 --> 01:56:55,500 | sell side imbalance buys on inefficiency. This is not a liquidity void. It's not this is a liquidity void. There's absolutely zero trading going on. That means |
| 683 | 01:56:55,500 --> 01:57:03,540 | it's void of any and all liquidity. There was no trades made between those two price points, where we closed on Friday and where we opened on Mondays trading |
| 684 | 01:57:03,540 --> 01:57:13,350 | in the opening session at 930. opening bell for equities. So it's likely that the market will want to gravitate back down into that not always not perfectly, |
| 685 | 01:57:13,440 --> 01:57:23,880 | it may do it a later time. But every time there's an inefficiency like that, you want to have it on your chart. How long until it straight back to one of your |
| 686 | 01:57:23,880 --> 01:57:33,180 | templates like I have up here, this is just one type of live executions. You want to create one that has new week opening gaps and keep the last five weeks |
| 687 | 01:57:33,180 --> 01:57:43,680 | or so on there. You can keep them on there longer just demo mount but have the last five really pop off in in a color scheme that would make it more meaningful |
| 688 | 01:57:43,680 --> 01:57:52,920 | to you. But every one of your templates, you have a resource available to you with trading view. And you can create templates where you save them for the |
| 689 | 01:57:52,920 --> 01:58:03,510 | purpose of having specific resources and insight. And one of them I would have is the opening range gaps. You don't have to have them on every single chart |
| 690 | 01:58:03,510 --> 01:58:11,010 | that you're working with. But there should be a template where you're tracking them. And when they close, you change the color right now. While at the time |
| 691 | 01:58:11,010 --> 01:58:20,430 | when I created the chart, before I left the house, took my son to get his medical procedures done. This was the color I opened it up with. If this was |
| 692 | 01:58:20,610 --> 01:58:35,580 | completely closed in and it traded all the way down to the low range of it, then I would dim it out, make it something like that but something like that. Okay, |
| 693 | 01:58:35,580 --> 01:58:44,880 | so that way, it's referred to I can see it and how price respects it because it ain't gonna just close it up and be done. And over with. This is a real factor |
| 694 | 01:58:44,880 --> 01:58:56,100 | in price deliveries algorithmically referred to at a later time, even if they close. They're useful for a few weeks. They expire after about a month, maybe |
| 695 | 01:58:56,100 --> 01:59:05,190 | sometimes, you know, a month and a half. There are gonna be times you'll find it old gaps new three months ago will still work. Hint Hint, nudge nudge. But apart |
| 696 | 01:59:05,190 --> 01:59:14,850 | from that, and beyond that I might be interested in them. So it's important to have a resource or worksheet or in this case, a template on your platform like |
| 697 | 01:59:14,850 --> 01:59:27,660 | trading view or whatever else you're using. Opening range gaps are highly impactful to price action. And the levels are the high upper 75% 50%, lower |
| 698 | 01:59:27,660 --> 01:59:36,870 | quadrant and the low. Those four levels are extremely precise. They're not random. They're not zones, okay. They're very specific price levels. If we're |
| 699 | 01:59:36,870 --> 01:59:44,520 | bullish, and we were ever to trade back down into this level, say we were higher for a while and we traded back down into it. I wouldn't anticipate the high the |
| 700 | 01:59:44,520 --> 01:59:54,060 | upper quadrant or the midpoint finding some some level of sensitivity and agreement that not by itself with other PD arrays that would be in close |
| 701 | 01:59:56,190 --> 02:00:08,370 | convergence to them at the right time of day when we would be trading Three o'clock to four o'clock 10 o'clock to 11 o'clock to three or three to four in |
| 702 | 02:00:08,370 --> 02:00:18,270 | the afternoon on the, on the pm session if those levels were revisited, and it was also providing another reason to anticipate higher prices or lower prices |
| 703 | 02:00:18,540 --> 02:00:27,120 | respected to whatever it is you're anticipating for that at time of day for either a silver bullet or model 2022 entry. That's how I would use these opening |
| 704 | 02:00:27,120 --> 02:00:36,510 | range gaps like that. And they may be stale or already used and discarded with by someone else, which is terrible, that's myopic, and they don't know what |
| 705 | 02:00:36,510 --> 02:00:47,520 | they're doing. They will be repeatedly used in the future with an expiration date of about 60 days. But let's change this back because |
| 706 | 02:00:50,250 --> 02:00:51,480 | I'm gonna keep things as they were. |
| 707 | 02:00:52,470 --> 02:00:58,830 | But this is the regular trading hours chart, but we're going to talk about that electronic trading, and I'm gonna get through this because I'm getting hungry. |
| 708 | 02:00:59,640 --> 02:01:00,300 | The |
| 709 | 02:01:06,540 --> 02:01:16,080 | just a reminder, if you're having fun, if you're learning, give me a thumbs up, it does really encourage me has nothing to ego just means that you're tackling |
| 710 | 02:01:16,080 --> 02:01:28,680 | certain things that I'm getting appreciation for. So it's not ego. It's like your progress report for me. So here's a blow here, we traded down into that |
| 711 | 02:01:28,680 --> 02:01:37,380 | gap. There. Okay, so what's the low of that candle array there on that one minute chart, you're gonna be looking up at this price level right here, upper |
| 712 | 02:01:37,380 --> 02:01:56,190 | left hand corner. What's the low of this candle right there. 15,414.75. What's the low of this candle right there. 15,414.75 Perfect. Perfect. Not one tick |
| 713 | 02:01:56,190 --> 02:02:08,820 | short, not one tick over. It's perfect. I wanted to see it trade up on this candle right there. I wanted to add more right there. This candles high, comes |
| 714 | 02:02:08,820 --> 02:02:22,830 | in at 15,004 13 Even the high on this candle comes in at 15,000. For 12.75. I was off by one tick if it would have given me that one tick, I would have added |
| 715 | 02:02:22,830 --> 02:02:36,000 | shorts there. It just didn't give it to me that day. So what I had is what I had nothing more to be made of it. The change in the state of delivery, which is an |
| 716 | 02:02:36,000 --> 02:02:44,160 | order block, it has nothing to do with engulfing it has nothing to do with the size of the candle has nothing to do with its the fact that we opened or closed |
| 717 | 02:02:44,160 --> 02:02:54,600 | higher or lower after a transitional event like either liquidity has been traded to or inefficiency has been revisited. We have seen on yesterday's trading both |
| 718 | 02:02:54,600 --> 02:03:06,570 | was the occurrence we had the 15 Minute city which is that pink shaded area here. We advise that's taken here. This candle is the uppermost candle and then |
| 719 | 02:03:06,570 --> 02:03:23,160 | the previous candle is part of it because it's consecutive up close candles, this candles opening price right there. That is the order block. as fuck all to |
| 720 | 02:03:23,160 --> 02:03:32,490 | do with a time and sales data it has nothing to do with level two data which can be faked has nothing to do with order book has nothing to do with book map has |
| 721 | 02:03:32,490 --> 02:03:43,710 | nothing to do with nothing else but that very specific price level right there. That is the order block. what's occurring there. The market has gone up to take |
| 722 | 02:03:43,710 --> 02:03:52,440 | the buyers thoughts straight up into the inefficiency. It's all in premium. We have a opening range gap down here below. This is all impulsive price delivery |
| 723 | 02:03:52,440 --> 02:04:01,170 | one directional. So it's a Judas swing. It's getting every time to come here a retail Rick all hopped up on goofballs that wants to go long here. They want to |
| 724 | 02:04:01,170 --> 02:04:10,080 | chase it why? Because it broke out. Everybody makes forex and futures trading easy. I'm a breakout trader I do this. I do that wonderful. This is how you get |
| 725 | 02:04:10,080 --> 02:04:22,440 | your ass handed to you doing breakouts. Okay, you have to know where the likelihood of you being in an extreme and public sentiment, Allah, forex factory |
| 726 | 02:04:22,470 --> 02:04:32,610 | law other websites I use for futures traders. Live streams are the best because their chatter their window where everybody's talking about it, or if they're |
| 727 | 02:04:32,610 --> 02:04:42,660 | very, very helpful in regards by doing a poll. Like I love Patrick Whelan's live stream when he does a poll when he thinks or not when he thinks about when he |
| 728 | 02:04:42,780 --> 02:04:51,900 | gives his audience the opportunity to poll whether they believe it's gonna go up or down for the day. I absolutely love that. I wish he would do it every single |
| 729 | 02:04:51,900 --> 02:05:01,080 | day. I wish he would do it right at 10 o'clock. Okay, I wish he would do that every single day because you all could watch this happen. You It's not me trying |
| 730 | 02:05:01,080 --> 02:05:09,900 | to say my community is trying to troll his community, because I'm indifferent to his methodology. I don't even know what he's doing. And I'm not saying anything |
| 731 | 02:05:09,900 --> 02:05:19,410 | about that him I like his character, I think he's entertaining. But his resource for me is his chat window when they are chatting up their opinion, right when |
| 732 | 02:05:19,410 --> 02:05:27,180 | I'm looking at what I'm anticipating in price delivery, if they're diametrically opposed, I absolutely have a 100% strike rate, it's going to happen, it's going |
| 733 | 02:05:27,180 --> 02:05:38,040 | to absolutely be perfect. There are some times sometimes where a few of his members were in alignment with what I was expecting. And that doesn't mean |
| 734 | 02:05:38,040 --> 02:05:47,400 | anything to me there. But what I'm looking for is there's little sweet spots where not just him, there's other people, like trades by Matt, I like looking at |
| 735 | 02:05:47,400 --> 02:05:54,240 | some of his chat window when they make their opinions known. And there's three other people that I'm not going to mention because it's going to sound like I'm |
| 736 | 02:05:54,240 --> 02:06:01,350 | beating these people up, and I'm not I like both Matt. And I like Pat is nothing against you folks. And if you're part of their members, don't take this live |
| 737 | 02:06:01,350 --> 02:06:08,070 | stream as I'm being a dick. I'm not, I'm being very balanced in the way I'm presenting what it is I'm doing, I'm not attacking them personally, I love the |
| 738 | 02:06:08,070 --> 02:06:15,270 | fact that they're providing what their opinions are in front of everybody, you know, by hook or by crook, if they do it, right. If they if they fail, it's in |
| 739 | 02:06:15,270 --> 02:06:25,500 | front of everybody. And I have a great deal of respect for that. Another one has entered the fray with me, top step, you know, that's a funded account company, I |
| 740 | 02:06:25,500 --> 02:06:34,500 | don't have any affiliation with I won't have an affiliation with. But my son has an account, he's trading through them. And they recently I don't know when |
| 741 | 02:06:34,500 --> 02:06:42,720 | exactly, but they started live streaming. I am interested to see what they think about the markets when they when they're trading. And I want to see what anybody |
| 742 | 02:06:42,720 --> 02:06:51,090 | else says in their chat window. So I'll be adding that. So I'm, I'm showing you my cards, like I'm using that as a resource, that is not an invitation for you |
| 743 | 02:06:51,090 --> 02:06:57,660 | to go over there and act uncivilized. And stop typing my fucking name in everybody's chat window. It's ignorant. It's ignorant, you're being |
| 744 | 02:06:57,660 --> 02:07:09,030 | disrespectful to the person that's presenting their livestream. I'm an audience member. I'm this generic just like you. If I say something, it's limited to |
| 745 | 02:07:09,030 --> 02:07:14,670 | whatever I say at the time, I'm not trying to draw any attention on trying to lure people to my fucking channel. I'm not trying to belittle anybody, I'm not |
| 746 | 02:07:14,670 --> 02:07:21,390 | trying to troll anybody, I'm not trying to say that their shit doesn't work, or make fun of them. I'm trying to be an encouragement, and I just want to be part |
| 747 | 02:07:21,390 --> 02:07:31,470 | of the community. That's all I'm trying to be. So if you're taking what this may sound like, as adversarial, or a means of getting out there and trying to stir |
| 748 | 02:07:31,470 --> 02:07:42,240 | up trouble, that's not what was intended. And if you're, if you're part of that, you know, you're, you're being a dick. So, anyway, it did not give me the entry |
| 749 | 02:07:42,510 --> 02:07:51,990 | for a additional short there. So that's one instance where in inversion, Fairbury get was implied. I had it in my chart, I wanted to see it happen. It |
| 750 | 02:07:51,990 --> 02:07:58,950 | just didn't go to that price point. And there was a missed move for an additional short, the market aggressively ran down into the buy side and |
| 751 | 02:07:58,950 --> 02:08:10,200 | balances on efficiency daily, high with this level here. And then we started meandering around here. And that's about when I was telling everybody that I |
| 752 | 02:08:10,200 --> 02:08:19,980 | don't I don't recall if I tweeted it. I don't remember if I tweet but I know I did it in Patrick's live stream, I was just basically saying you be contented |
| 753 | 02:08:19,980 --> 02:08:29,130 | with no and be safe. Because there's a lot of money, we're still wanting to go lower. And it just worked at daily positive, so sign efficiency high. And then |
| 754 | 02:08:30,060 --> 02:08:48,840 | rate there. See that? That drop right there into that gap. That's a really nice run up into a premium fair value gap which is right there. So as a scalper non |
| 755 | 02:08:48,870 --> 02:09:05,760 | bias, intraday volatility only scalper. With the context that daily buys and balances on efficiency high down here, we left it. We had the short term high |
| 756 | 02:09:05,760 --> 02:09:18,690 | taken here, we dropped down, didn't take out that low. Ran higher. This gap right there trading right there. That would have been a nice little long to go |
| 757 | 02:09:18,690 --> 02:09:30,150 | up into that level there and then just stop, don't do anything. Because we're inside of the range from this premium to the discount level. Which I told you |
| 758 | 02:09:30,150 --> 02:09:40,710 | last Friday on live, not live but on YouTube commentary, it would this these levels are meaningful to me on the daily chart. So we've already traded to a |
| 759 | 02:09:40,710 --> 02:09:47,700 | here it's respecting and gravitating towards it. And if it's going to run wherever the boss stops that we're trailed if anybody was short here, it's got |
| 760 | 02:09:47,700 --> 02:09:58,590 | to be above this high. It didn't it didn't go up that high on this one here. It leaves the buy stops intact until it gets there. So if it's gonna go to the buy |
| 761 | 02:09:58,590 --> 02:10:10,350 | stops here Always think about how it can go beyond that for what purpose, inefficiency or another additional closer proximity higher high that |
| 762 | 02:10:10,350 --> 02:10:17,850 | inefficiencies there. So we're trading up to there. So this is a nice little bread and butter Scout that could have been done. And you might want to turn on |
| 763 | 02:10:17,850 --> 02:10:32,850 | that looked at lower timeframes on the 15th and 32nd chart to use more information on it. And later in the day, we just ran off. Coming all the way up |
| 764 | 02:10:32,850 --> 02:10:43,110 | to the top of the 50 Minute, sort of balanced bias on efficiency. But notice, once we got to the halfway point and above it, everything that was bearish or |
| 765 | 02:10:43,110 --> 02:10:51,960 | will be considered bearish left the building like all this, there's no reason to anticipate lower prices. And we just started working higher. And then using that |
| 766 | 02:10:51,960 --> 02:11:02,760 | 15 minute buy. I'm sorry, city. lookouts, grabbed gravitating around those levels, relative equal lows, what's below that cell stops with below it |
| 767 | 02:11:02,970 --> 02:11:07,020 | consolidated New Day opening gap |
| 768 | 02:11:12,960 --> 02:11:34,080 | What's this white level? Midpoint that 15 minutes city consolidating work around both sides of it. Displacement. These are all times of the day, you wouldn't be |
| 769 | 02:11:34,080 --> 02:11:41,400 | trading anyway. But I observe all this stuff. When I'm looking at like going into London. I go through all this type of price action and see what they were |
| 770 | 02:11:41,400 --> 02:11:54,690 | respecting what stops that they didn't take, what stops did they take? And this is obviously overnight. And this price looks a little bit sloppier. Because it's |
| 771 | 02:11:54,720 --> 02:12:04,320 | the September contract, not the December contract. But ultimately, it did pretty much the same thing we were outlining on the December contract. So let's go over |
| 772 | 02:12:05,160 --> 02:12:07,980 | to Nq z 2023. |
| 773 | 02:12:14,010 --> 02:12:24,420 | Shows you how we went down we went below that. And we're just working this level we're done right? Where are we trading that now? There you go. So it's an |
| 774 | 02:12:24,420 --> 02:12:32,430 | understanding of reading, being able to read real time price action and understanding what it's likely to do and what it's most likely not to do. And |
| 775 | 02:12:32,430 --> 02:12:43,110 | there's a balancing act that you have to there's a lot of things that you have to learn. And I wish there was a way to make it easier and faster for you. I |
| 776 | 02:12:43,110 --> 02:12:51,960 | really wish I could do that. Because I would I think you can see it in my willingness to teach you share. And when I'm available, when I don't have my |
| 777 | 02:12:51,960 --> 02:13:00,360 | real life, things that come up like anybody else does, I have a family, when these things are illness, something that could come. So I am prevented from |
| 778 | 02:13:00,360 --> 02:13:10,920 | dealing with this I'd love doing. But if there was an easier way, a faster way. I always pray to God all the time to give me a better way to articulate what it |
| 779 | 02:13:10,920 --> 02:13:22,260 | is that he's given me. I don't know how to always do that. So I try my best to do as best as I can. I'm not trying to hide it from you. I'm not trying to make |
| 780 | 02:13:22,260 --> 02:13:31,410 | it harder for you. But these things are going to be learned by you going into the chart and recording them, annotating them observing them. It's the same |
| 781 | 02:13:31,410 --> 02:13:38,640 | thing that you're submitting to, if you buy a book when you buy my books should you decide to do so and I'm telling you right now, don't buy him. How's that for |
| 782 | 02:13:38,640 --> 02:13:47,970 | a sales tactic? Don't buy my books, don't buy him, okay? Don't buy them. If you want to learn how to trade, I've already showed you how to do that here on the |
| 783 | 02:13:47,970 --> 02:13:58,830 | YouTube channel. I've already done that, okay, you don't need to buy my books, you don't need to put more money in my pocket. You don't need to do that. But if |
| 784 | 02:13:58,830 --> 02:14:06,690 | you were on the fence about buying, and you're looking for them when they come out, when I get the plaque that has a million subscribers that is verified by |
| 785 | 02:14:06,690 --> 02:14:15,240 | YouTube. That means that wasn't done by bots, it wasn't fake subscribers. Once that's verified, and I'll do a little short on YouTube, Shawn, here's the 1 |
| 786 | 02:14:15,240 --> 02:14:24,510 | million followers. The book, the first book will be released to the publisher and they'll start the process then. That's that's the way it's gonna happen. But |
| 787 | 02:14:25,440 --> 02:14:34,380 | the submission to the idea that buying that book or any other book that you've ever bought or read, you've, you've made a conscious effort and decision to say, |
| 788 | 02:14:34,770 --> 02:14:47,820 | I'm going to give this book my time. I'm going to give it an open mind to see what it will present to me and I'm going to see if there's any value to it. Any |
| 789 | 02:14:47,820 --> 02:14:59,970 | book, is this going to give you a static price chart in a paragraph or two, maybe a chapter or two. If you were to think about how much book text chat |
| 790 | 02:15:00,000 --> 02:15:11,400 | occurs in volumes of books that were filled with all the lecturing and teachings that I've done so far. Since 2010, where I've been out here vocally from talking |
| 791 | 02:15:11,400 --> 02:15:16,950 | about forex, to now predominately futures, but it's all the same thing. How many books would I have written? |
| 792 | 02:15:18,659 --> 02:15:19,529 | Dozens. |
| 793 | 02:15:20,790 --> 02:15:27,000 | And you would have submitted yourself to those books. And I'm telling you, in all honesty, they would have been limited in the capacity of being able to |
| 794 | 02:15:27,000 --> 02:15:35,400 | bridge your understanding, because watching me do it live, watching me call price before it happens, watching you do real, try real trades with real money. |
| 795 | 02:15:36,870 --> 02:15:44,910 | There's no comparison to that. So while it's wonderful that you're excited to see a book by me or anybody else in the future that makes a book or writes a |
| 796 | 02:15:44,910 --> 02:15:56,970 | book, they're very, very limited. They're very limited in its scope of conveying and bridging the gaps between what you are hoping to understand and what the |
| 797 | 02:15:56,970 --> 02:16:07,980 | intended author's purpose was, in delivering that book. I know this is not going to be answered by just a book, or books, you need to see me outline it before it |
| 798 | 02:16:07,980 --> 02:16:16,380 | happens. You need to see me execute on it, you need to see me show you in great detail, just in this live stream today. I've been talking to you for several |
| 799 | 02:16:16,380 --> 02:16:26,280 | hours. And it doesn't even scratch the surface of what's required of you, in your own back testing and studying. Look at what price has done when it went |
| 800 | 02:16:26,280 --> 02:16:39,390 | down to how we started this video. When we started this live stream, this was the focus point right here on that 15 minute timeframe. Right there. What is it |
| 801 | 02:16:39,390 --> 02:16:48,990 | done? traded down to it? Did any of the bodies go below that level? No. But did I say at the time, it could trade down through it, the wicks can go through it. |
| 802 | 02:16:48,990 --> 02:16:57,870 | I just want to see those the bodies go below because I'm more interested in it not going down below it and then trying to trade higher later today. What do you |
| 803 | 02:16:57,870 --> 02:17:07,230 | see here? that very thing. That's not random. That's I'm not pulling shit out of my ass making it up as I go along. All these things are the protocols that I've |
| 804 | 02:17:07,230 --> 02:17:16,260 | taught you in core content lessons and mentorship. I've taught this in individual lessons. I've taught it in live streams over real time, one minute |
| 805 | 02:17:16,260 --> 02:17:23,700 | charts before they're forming, I'm telling you, this is what it should do, it should not go below here or go, it should go above that high, it should perform |
| 806 | 02:17:23,700 --> 02:17:33,930 | this way I should be large candles, like folks, there's, there's no comparison to that. That's somebody that has experience. That's something that is repeating |
| 807 | 02:17:33,990 --> 02:17:45,030 | as a phenomenon that you can tap into and make a good deal of money off of it. But if you're reckless with it, if you don't have control over yourself, you can |
| 808 | 02:17:45,030 --> 02:17:52,980 | lose money with it like anything else. You can't be impulsive with it, you have to know what you're looking for why it should be there in the chart. And it |
| 809 | 02:17:53,010 --> 02:18:02,040 | needs to be dressed in a manner where it fits your model. If it doesn't, don't push the button, don't trade it not even when a demo. Pushing a demo button, |
| 810 | 02:18:02,040 --> 02:18:11,010 | even though there's no real monetary risk involved, is creating habits and you want those habits to be constructive and positive. Not bad habits, not rewarding |
| 811 | 02:18:11,010 --> 02:18:19,500 | impulsiveness. And then when the 13 different previous trades or trading accounts that use new set up as a demo got blown, or haven't really shown any |
| 812 | 02:18:19,500 --> 02:18:27,630 | results? Oh, I'll just reset it. That's the problem with these funded account companies, they're teaching you to think that Well, I can trade with aggressive |
| 813 | 02:18:28,080 --> 02:18:36,150 | money management, which isn't really money management says gambling. And I'm gonna do the max leverage. Because even if I fail, it's cheaper for me to do |
| 814 | 02:18:36,150 --> 02:18:44,460 | this than the trade with my own money. And I might get able, I might be able to get a big win over leveraging. That is the absolute asinine way to look at |
| 815 | 02:18:44,460 --> 02:18:54,810 | trading. You're trying to make lottery wins. When if you just sit down simply to sit down and try to do small little incremental gains, and then measure how you |
| 816 | 02:18:54,810 --> 02:19:05,670 | think. What were your highlights of that? What was the low points? What were you fearful of? What were the things that were paramount in the trade idea? Did it |
| 817 | 02:19:05,670 --> 02:19:13,710 | deliver like you were expecting? How much precision was there? How much drawdown is you have? How much time did it take for your trade idea to manifest itself in |
| 818 | 02:19:13,710 --> 02:19:21,150 | the time you saw it in the inception of the move to when it got to your target or Terminus? How long did it take for that to happen before you got |
| 819 | 02:19:21,150 --> 02:19:28,260 | uncomfortable or impatient? Or how long did it take for your impatience to be subsided? And then feel confident that your own side is going to trust the |
| 820 | 02:19:28,260 --> 02:19:38,430 | truth. These are all critical measuring points. They're all KPIs to your output. They're measuring values that you have to be conscious of, especially in the |
| 821 | 02:19:38,430 --> 02:19:47,010 | beginning. If you don't do that, if you don't do those things, if you don't focus on those aspects of your intellectual thought process, how you emotionally |
| 822 | 02:19:47,040 --> 02:19:59,700 | are stimulated by the things that you're thinking and how you're seeing that movie here. Read up into this inefficiency again. You're wasting your time if |
| 823 | 02:19:59,700 --> 02:20:09,720 | you don't do those things. They're, they're more critical than learning the next thing I'm going to teach you. And I mean that sincerely. Because 90% of the |
| 824 | 02:20:09,720 --> 02:20:19,230 | problem that you have, is you. And you don't want to hear that. It sounds like a cop out excuse, oh, your stuff should work with everybody. It will be in |
| 825 | 02:20:19,230 --> 02:20:26,160 | everybody's hands. It'll work in everybody's hands. If they follow the instruction and allow themselves to get the fuck out of their own way. You're |
| 826 | 02:20:26,160 --> 02:20:37,800 | holding yourself back. I'm not. I'm not lazy. You can see I'm not fucking lazy. I'm here more than anybody. And I'm not asking anything of you know, coupon |
| 827 | 02:20:37,800 --> 02:20:47,280 | codes are necessary. I'm not selling you shit. But I'm proven. And I'm proving it better than anybody else with any other methodology. Nothing else is going to |
| 828 | 02:20:47,280 --> 02:21:00,390 | come close to this. I Guaran damn tee you. If they had it, they'd show it to you. And the Hatton is it. I'm not trying to be adversarial to anybody. I'm |
| 829 | 02:21:00,390 --> 02:21:09,150 | saying, put the work in. If you don't think this works, go in, try to prove it wrong. But listen to the instruction. Don't try to paint outside the boundaries |
| 830 | 02:21:09,150 --> 02:21:16,650 | I've put out in terms of what you're supposed to do what you're not supposed to do. If you submit to that, and it doesn't work. Then you found out on your own, |
| 831 | 02:21:16,860 --> 02:21:28,320 | make your observations public. But nobody has done that. Nobody has made a valid attempt. That honest attempt, not some Mickey Mouse shit where they try to do |
| 832 | 02:21:28,320 --> 02:21:35,340 | something and scribble a couple pages and say I took some notes. No, no, no, no, no. Show me your back testing. What have you done? How many months of back |
| 833 | 02:21:35,340 --> 02:21:42,210 | testing and logging? Have you done? What are the details that you've recorded? Where were the observations that you had? Because that's going to tell you what |
| 834 | 02:21:42,210 --> 02:21:50,700 | you're focusing on. And for me, it would be able to I will be with pinpoint. Let me hold that back. Because I'm going to be inviting people thinking that I want |
| 835 | 02:21:50,700 --> 02:21:59,250 | you all to send me shit. And I got to go through everybody's stuff and do like a counseling session. Yeah, your problem? Is this No, fuck that. I don't have the |
| 836 | 02:21:59,250 --> 02:22:08,310 | time for that. Okay, I had 48,000 Fucking emails that I can't even open up. And they're just piling in every week. I can't keep up with emails, don't ask me to |
| 837 | 02:22:08,310 --> 02:22:17,790 | evaluate your trading model those things that you people tweet to me? Like, can you confirm that I'm doing this right? What's the results? Are you getting |
| 838 | 02:22:17,790 --> 02:22:23,790 | favorable results. Because if you're getting favorable results, you're probably on the right track. If you're not, you're probably doing something incorrect. |
| 839 | 02:22:24,510 --> 02:22:36,240 | Submit yourself to the process, submit yourself to the observations of the cause and effect of doing it. It's either going to work or it's not. It's simple. And |
| 840 | 02:22:36,270 --> 02:22:45,270 | you're going to know that if you're going to be successful in following this procedure. Or if you have the capability of doing it, a lot of people are going |
| 841 | 02:22:45,270 --> 02:22:56,190 | to discover it and they can't do it. Because they don't have the discipline. They don't have the the makeup in them as a human being to be properly prepared |
| 842 | 02:22:56,190 --> 02:23:05,730 | to do this, not just my stuff, but trading in general, because it's very, you know, over here on the rails, right at this candle right to the right of it, you |
| 843 | 02:23:05,730 --> 02:23:12,330 | don't know what's going to happen. And you want to put money behind that. If you don't know what you're doing, that's a scary thing. And yes, I would admit that |
| 844 | 02:23:12,330 --> 02:23:21,090 | it would be scary to do that. You wouldn't want to be doing it, I wouldn't want anyone to take that. That initiative to put risk on something that's completely |
| 845 | 02:23:21,090 --> 02:23:32,910 | unknown to them. But knowing how the market should behave, when it should be done moving, we went down to this level here, we've consolidated and now we're |
| 846 | 02:23:32,910 --> 02:23:44,430 | drilling back up. A lot of people would have been looking at other things in here, maybe thinking it's going to go lower. But I'm telling you what I do, how |
| 847 | 02:23:44,430 --> 02:23:51,720 | I think when I'm looking at London, or if I wake up, like for instance, say I was sleeping, I would be getting up probably like an hour before where you're at |
| 848 | 02:23:51,720 --> 02:24:01,650 | now. I would go back through what we've done here. And I don't draw this on the chart. But I'm looking at these points like this in price action, and I'm |
| 849 | 02:24:01,650 --> 02:24:12,690 | measuring what did it do? How did it behave? How did it use the afternoon liquidity on Monday? What did it do? In Asia? Like what liquidity did it leave? |
| 850 | 02:24:12,720 --> 02:24:20,940 | What liquidity did it take in London, here's London. We thought the buy side in one up into five minute premium fair value got all the businesses we talked |
| 851 | 02:24:20,940 --> 02:24:33,210 | about throughout this entire live stream and it delivered lower. I don't subscribe to this as you know going lower to go. Retracing go lower lower. I'm |
| 852 | 02:24:33,210 --> 02:24:43,590 | thinking consolidation to still higher. I would look for that. Going forward today for my personal traits. I would look for that then that does not mean that |
| 853 | 02:24:43,590 --> 02:24:54,870 | I'm telling you that it's going to take this higher. I haven't gotten to that point yet. I will be looking for things to set up that type of criteria. So I'm |
| 854 | 02:24:54,870 --> 02:25:06,090 | open I'm more willing to take that versus going short below here. I don't want to be short. Below here, it would be more likely for me to trust being long |
| 855 | 02:25:06,090 --> 02:25:14,760 | today. And I'm not suggesting I'm going to actually take any trades, I'm saying that I'm open to the idea that I would like to see higher prices because think, |
| 856 | 02:25:14,790 --> 02:25:21,030 | oh, this was this dropping down, to pick up more orders to go higher, longer term, |
| 857 | 02:25:22,680 --> 02:25:34,560 | going into the CPI, and what we do for CPI, I don't even know, I had no idea. And I've made my opinions of CPI, available real time meaning before the fact a |
| 858 | 02:25:34,560 --> 02:25:42,360 | few times already. And I think I've only been right twice, which is why I tell you don't tend to take a position before CPI, and they can rip your face off. |
| 859 | 02:25:42,360 --> 02:25:54,870 | They're very violent moves, real sudden, breakneck speeds. And if you're over leverage, they can take it away from you real quick. But in proper context, |
| 860 | 02:25:54,870 --> 02:26:09,960 | also, if I go to daily charts, hide everything here and go to the daily. I was talking about the other day, and what they exactly don't recall, but I knew I |
| 861 | 02:26:09,960 --> 02:26:20,640 | was suggesting that I, I favored this candles high. Like I wanted to see, that was my interest. Like I wanted to see it get down there doesn't mean I'm taking |
| 862 | 02:26:20,640 --> 02:26:28,470 | a short to trade that level, it doesn't mean that it is me expecting it's going to go there. So I can beat my chest and say you are smart. And I'm interested in |
| 863 | 02:26:28,470 --> 02:26:44,160 | that level. Does it have a willingness to get down there? It didn't did it? It left that portion open. And we went above this gap right here. So in my mind, |
| 864 | 02:26:45,210 --> 02:26:58,110 | I'm wondering, do we need to get up into this portion still? Or do we just bang around between this high and that low? And we'll have to wait, you know, what we |
| 865 | 02:26:58,110 --> 02:27:11,010 | do after CPI? Because CPI is as a monster, like we I don't know what it's going to do. No one knows what it's going to do. Because it's an invitation to allow |
| 866 | 02:27:11,040 --> 02:27:21,780 | manual intervention to step in just like a rate announcement like FOMC event. Those things like Non Farm Payroll, perfect example to your Non Farm Payroll |
| 867 | 02:27:21,780 --> 02:27:30,780 | numbers, the employment numbers may be positive for the market. But it tanks that's mainly on adventure. But they'll later on say, oh, yeah, well, the market |
| 868 | 02:27:30,810 --> 02:27:37,710 | discounted that news, it was already priced in. But you didn't tell us that stuff before nonfarm payroll was released. So they're always going to spin it to |
| 869 | 02:27:37,710 --> 02:27:46,530 | make it seem like there was some purpose for why it didn't do or didn't, or did do something. In trading, we don't have that luxury. If you're trying to make |
| 870 | 02:27:46,530 --> 02:27:56,490 | money you need to be right, you need to know what you're doing is going to be based on something that has probabilities. And if you can't manage that, or |
| 871 | 02:27:56,490 --> 02:28:04,500 | embrace that uncertainty, no matter what I teach, or anybody else teaches, you're not going to be successful. And I try to be very balanced in that regard. |
| 872 | 02:28:04,500 --> 02:28:14,610 | Because I don't want anybody thinking that I'm trying to sell you a pipe dream, and promise you Lambo lifestyle, because that's, that's not what it is here. And |
| 873 | 02:28:14,610 --> 02:28:26,520 | I think, what was it, I was gonna show you something for our left, before I close the Daylin go down to lower timeframe, I want to show you this. The fact |
| 874 | 02:28:26,520 --> 02:28:37,410 | that we have traded up, came back down in the imbalance here, left portion open. And we're north of this fear that you got. As long as we're above this fair pay |
| 875 | 02:28:37,410 --> 02:28:48,420 | gap here, throw that on your charts. Okay, as long were as long as we're above that, in my opinion, I'm favoring a run into this wick, consequently, Christmas |
| 876 | 02:28:48,450 --> 02:28:58,410 | or high. That's that's me showing you what I would like to see at this given moment right now, I don't want to see the load that was formed. While we were |
| 877 | 02:28:58,410 --> 02:29:06,420 | today. Together live streaming, I don't want to see that violated today to the downside, if it does on interest in trading at all, not long or short, that |
| 878 | 02:29:06,420 --> 02:29:17,520 | would completely remove any interest at all. I would only be interested in looking for Long's. And there is nothing in the chart for NASDAQ right now to |
| 879 | 02:29:17,520 --> 02:29:27,030 | frame that for so I would have to wait to see what we do at 930. The first 30 minutes that opening range, I want to see amateur hour come in and whatever they |
| 880 | 02:29:27,030 --> 02:29:35,970 | leave intact, whether it be inefficient, see above or below or stops. I would have to make my mind up at that time. And if I have that I'll share it on |
| 881 | 02:29:35,970 --> 02:29:45,960 | Twitter. But right now, I'm neutral but with a slightly bullish bias. If that makes any sense to you. I'm not interested in going short. I'm not interested in |
| 882 | 02:29:45,990 --> 02:29:54,960 | selling short at all, neither NASDAQ or ES. So we have this here. I want to go in and put on the five minute chart |
| 883 | 02:30:01,530 --> 02:30:09,030 | This area here, I suppose I was going to put that on here if you don't have it already on your chart to show you the inversion fair Vega. Don't look at the |
| 884 | 02:30:09,030 --> 02:30:15,450 | rest of this this would be a number |
| 885 | 02:30:18,119 --> 02:30:26,939 | of years. It's time for breakfast. I know. That's Mommy's job. I don't do that. Listen to that. |
| 886 | 02:30:30,930 --> 02:30:40,860 | Woman has to do very little in life. Feeding the puppies is not asking too much. Right? And that's the inversion fairway got betrayed up into here. Okay, so |
| 887 | 02:30:40,860 --> 02:30:49,770 | that's what I was referring to. Not much in terms of difference between this one here, but it's still nonetheless hitting it. And we're seeing it hit it right |
| 888 | 02:30:49,770 --> 02:30:58,350 | there on that candle to where it falls short of that. Five Minute breaker. This camera doesn't touch that. This one does touch the |
| 889 | 02:31:02,910 --> 02:31:11,910 | No, I'm sorry. I'm Rena Marie Nero. Looks like it does touch it. Right there. |
| 890 | 02:31:16,020 --> 02:31:21,360 | Excessive compulsive is flaring. This candle is high. |
| 891 | 02:31:28,500 --> 02:31:37,680 | This candle is high comes in at 665 and a quarter 665 and a quarter. And low I'm sorry, the high of that |
| 892 | 02:31:38,700 --> 02:31:39,780 | candle in question. |
| 893 | 02:31:42,570 --> 02:31:52,440 | The high comes in at 665 and a quarter. So that's what I mean it was touching the low of the inversion here, right? Yeah. So again, that's perfect. So it is |
| 894 | 02:31:52,440 --> 02:32:04,260 | what it is. Prior to me teaching you fair value gap theory. And it's still just an introduction. At this point. Still, nobody would have used those levels for |
| 895 | 02:32:04,290 --> 02:32:12,090 | lower intraday support and resistance levels. Sorry, that doesn't work like that. And in version paraic apps don't work with the logic of using a |
| 896 | 02:32:14,040 --> 02:32:23,670 | exponential moving average inversion pair of a gas would be opposed to a moving average idea. That's the whole context of inversion. Not inverted fair, Vega |
| 897 | 02:32:23,700 --> 02:32:37,110 | inversion, seeing how you say it incorrectly. But that's the business for now. Hopefully, I've taught you something, or at least gave you something to build |
| 898 | 02:32:37,110 --> 02:32:43,830 | your observations on when you go into your charts looking at the New York session or if you're going into this London, how do you go into your charts |
| 899 | 02:32:43,830 --> 02:32:52,380 | looking for specific things? What are you looking for? What factors are you weighing out? How are we using inefficiencies? When should they be expected to |
| 900 | 02:32:52,380 --> 02:32:59,460 | completely close in? What levels are we looking at inside of these things? They're not zones are very specific price levels, and they're perfectly |
| 901 | 02:32:59,460 --> 02:33:07,380 | delivered. That's algorithm that's a signature proving that price is absolutely 100% controlled, it's manipulated and there's no reason for you to be afraid of |
| 902 | 02:33:07,380 --> 02:33:14,820 | it. You should be thankful that it's like this. You should be thankful that there's always going to be a new supply of victims that come in that trust. |
| 903 | 02:33:15,060 --> 02:33:25,770 | overbought oversold RSI divergence, MACD crossovers and exponential Golden Cross moving averages supplying a man, Elliot wave Wycoff algo box horseshit all those |
| 904 | 02:33:25,770 --> 02:33:27,870 | animal patterns, all that dumb stuff. None of that's |