ICT YT - 2023-09-05 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Live ES and NQ Tape Reading September 05 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-09-14 09:52
Outline
02:37 - The joys and perils of live streaming.
- The joys and perils of live streaming in the hands of a noob live streamer.
- The time right now is new york local time, 13 minutes after 9am.
- Today is a day with no bias, but using intraday volatility to try to read the tape and look for conditions in the marketplace where the algorithm will leave clues about what it wants to do and what it should respect.
- The daily chart is not a complete list of things.
08:23 - Play your cards very carefully.
- The morning session after a holiday is like a big, trending or large range daily candle. The next morning session is the very next session.
- If you are trying to do a funded account today, do not let me influence your trade.
- On the left hand side, see the candle low, the low of the candle, and the candle high, which is a fair value gap between the two.
- The next candle opening is what he calls volume imbalance, which means the market will want to revisit this area.
13:49 - Daily chart of the S and P.
- This is a daily chart right now, and it can do it multiple times until there is a body that lays on top of it. It will be useful in lower timeframe charts.
- Using these lines here intraday today between this red line and these two blue lines for the s and p.
- Fear of a gap in the form of a sell-side imbalance by senator efficiency or vc, and how to split the gap between the highest and lowest point on the daily chart.
- How the market will likely want to go up and take the buy stops for those making money.
19:51 - Sell side liquidity and fair value gap.
- Buy side liquidity can draw up to here, as long as it doesn't go above the red line on the hourly chart above this level.
- 60 minute chart.
- The gap in time is a result of holidays when the market is uncertain as soon as it starts trading the next business day.
- The market has been trading overnight.
25:39 - The inefficiency of the up candle.
- The inefficiency of the fibonacci method, and why it always moves the rectangles around, and how the market reacts to it.
- The importance of having buy and sell stops.
- There is a computer that is running scenarios for the stock to only reach a predetermined level and then it will stop it, slow it down, or reverse.
- The daily chart.
- Nasdaq is in a hurry, so if it goes higher than assets, it's going to go up faster to where it would go to before the left hand side would do it.
- The nasdaq wants to run real quick and get it over with, so that's what it's looking at.
- The importance of being patient and not trying to go in and try to make money every single day.
- If the markets are trading close to one another, they should move together in the same direction. If one starts to move higher, the other starts to fall in sympathy.
36:09 - The fear of a gap.
- The Nasdaq is finding support at the top of the daily chart, but there is a gap on the daily charts.
- The buy side is close to equal highs.
- The importance of looking at intraday volatility without any impulsiveness, and why it is important to see what the nasdaq is doing today.
- The fair value gap.
- The five minute chart and the time frame of the chart, and why it is important to look at the same level every time.
- The five-minute chart on this deck.
42:27 - A low resistance liquidity run.
- This is hardly the environment for a low resistance, liquidity, run. This is not an environment for that to occur.
- This is the part of the day where new traders want to sit on their hands and let the market work out what it wants.
- The market has two reasons to want to go down here. It is having a hard time getting above the daily volume imbalance as these two blue levels here, and if this thing rolls down this will draw nasdaq down into this low.
- There is no fear of a gap in here until that small section there.
49:00 - Efficient market delivery and symmetry.
- The algorithms are trying to facilitate efficient market delivery. They are two minutes away from 10 o'clock.
- The Nasdaq is showing its strength when the s and p starts to go down.
- The lack of symmetry is overcome after a holiday once it is reestablished. Once everything starts to be calibrated again, they move in tandem once more.
- The best-case scenario.
53:44 - Learn to trust your trading.
- This is an ugly morning session. It will be choppy, and it won't really want to do a whole lot. These are the types of teachings that today's people online are trying to learn how to trade.
- This is how you want to observe when you are trading.
- If things repeat over and over again, that means they are controlled. If they repeat, then everything that is shown will hold up and happen in the future.
- How to respond.
- If there's a lower degree of probability, there's the odds of it being stacked against you more than normal on a particular trading day or trading session.
- The days that people usually go into a tailspin and they lose more and more, and they're scared to trade the next trading day.
01:01:05 - Do you want to go higher or lower?
- Today is the first opportunity for traders to get out and trade with real money again, because they had to stay out yesterday and only have four days left in this week.
- Greed is hitting the candlesticks really hard, and impatience is hitting them really hard.
- Today is a lesson on learning how to preserve capital and keep money in your account.
- How to avoid the choppiness of the market in the morning.
01:06:01 - S and P candlestick charting.
- This can resume going lower if it goes back above this high here, that's not going to be looked at any more. We'll close the charts up because we don't want to see how the ES reaches this low.
- The candlesticks are a mohawk type of thing.
- The sell side is getting a lot of interest from the S and P side, and should see the Nasdaq start to accelerate and reach for the sell side.
- S and P lower lows, higher lows, and the midpoint between the two blue lines is going to be impactful.
01:12:45 - One minute chart of candlestick.
- Move down to one minute chart and look at the one-minute chart on both small, warm, unbalance right there.
- Nasdaq falls out of bed and falls back into the red.
01:17:56 - How to trade this market?
- A small gap right here to treatment as well as daily volume imbalance. If it rallies back to support, that would be constructive for Orion.
- Nothing in this rally up here.
- The benefits of trading in a symmetrical market, and how trading on days when everything is firing on all cylinders makes it easy to trade.
- How to trade the right way.
- The importance of not trading every day because it is stressful and will cause you to want to do more than is necessary.
- How sportsfolks reach out to you guys.
- See this act as resistance inversion for your labor. Quick look at pound and how long this area is waiting for it to come back up.
- Bitcoin and gold.
01:26:14 - Technical remainder of the year.
- Expect it to sell off right now after winning the demo, but take that and run into a blow on this.
- Get below the old love here.
- The sell side is this low can act as a fulcrum point for swing trading. This is the edge of the door.
- The stop-loss would have to be above the wind.
01:31:52 - Optimal swing trading on a volatile market.
- Half the trade would come off here, the balance would be aimed for here, plus the spread between two handles.
- Best case scenario, exit on a swing trade would be this level down here, because it is indecisive.
- Gradually, gradually, in your experience, you graduate in your understanding and to give you the type of experience that you can't get from watching videos by me or anyone else.
- The lack of symmetry between both the markets makes it very difficult to read this for precision basis.
01:38:17 - An inversion inversion.
- The body's candles are respected and go below the midpoint of the wick or tail projection blocks taken to mean touch this level again.
- The riddle today is a riddle.
01:41:52 - Stick to this area and stay open.
- Stay open to no return back into this area here. Use this area as a inversion and rip up into this level here.
- The laggard is the S and P.
- Natha is the relative strength leader for natha, so long natha would be more favorable in this one. Long natha is more likely to deliver.
- Which one to use for nathas.
- The candle closed right on the wine price level, which is favorable for continuation on the upside and a laggard on the weaker of the two markets.
- The price of the wine.
01:49:28 - Allow for more reluctance in price.
- One of the things in the notes is to allow for a little bit more reluctance in trading. It won't be so snappy, like quick responsiveness to a discount rate.
- A story about taking a greyhound bus to Charlottesville, carolina, and how it took him 18 hours.
- Determine which one is the leader, the laggard, which has the signatures that are supporting continuation, and which one has unfulfilled either premium.
- The five handles in the chart.
01:54:26 - Trading off a one-minute chart.
- I don't want to see any kind of meandering around like it did down here. They don't wants to let the traders off the hook.
- Rally paul wants to see this little area here stay open and act as a breakaway gap. It's moving up, but it's moving at a pace that's been met.
- On your chart, you would have it annotated something like this. It looks like there is maximum security and maximum security.
- You want to see a delay when the device is up.
02:00:51 - How do you know when a breakaway gap is present?
- How to use the 3D-3V arrays to get to the level where the body is telling the narrative that they are not willing to go lower.
- How to know when a breakaway gap is coming, and how to know if it will stay open for a while.
- The importance of understanding the importance of how either side wants to come back to a level, and how it will deliver to that level.
- The two blue levels in the chart, and why it is important to have all the storyline behind action in real time.
02:06:42 - The beginning stages of disjointed symmetry.
- The shift in market structure when nasdaq was still going to want to go higher, and the beginning stages of disruption in symmetry.
- How the buy side triggered the buy-side trigger into this area where it had the wick or tail that candle right there.
- Recognition is a natural default response to being repetitively presented in the front of the charts over and over again, taking little snapshots of it all these little spaces in the chart.
- An inversion level is inversion levels, which are very specific, specific points.
- This is not a skill set that is going to evade you if you do what james tells you to do.
- If you don't study it and practice it, you won't see it and you're wasting the opportunities of being in front of james live like this.
- All of these markets are running on the algorithm. What's going on buying and selling pressure has absolutely no bearing on what you watch today.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:48,480 | ICT: All right, the joys and perils of live streaming in the hands of a noob live streamer. Alright, so I have obviously lower the latency, there's three |
| 2 | 00:02:48,480 --> 00:03:03,690 | settings on YouTube's live stream studio, it's normal latency low and like ultra something whatever. And I had it on while which was the middle setting. And I |
| 3 | 00:03:03,690 --> 00:03:12,960 | saw some of you tweeting to me that it was like glitching and skipping and such. So I have it set to normal. So understand that that is obviously going to cause |
| 4 | 00:03:13,020 --> 00:03:24,660 | room for those to say I'm broadcasting on a delay and somehow still being able to manipulate time and space and say things differently after I've already spoke |
| 5 | 00:03:24,660 --> 00:03:37,950 | it into the ether. And everyone make everybody happy. I'm trying, I'm trying. Alright, so give me a five by five if you can hear me now without any issues on |
| 6 | 00:03:37,950 --> 00:03:39,840 | Twitter, just tweet to me if you hear anything |
| 7 | 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:08,280 | thank you for your book. Alright, so we are gonna go back over to the charts I can see what I'm supposed to be looking at here. Right on the left hand side |
| 8 | 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:21,540 | again, this is the E Mini s&p I'll just real quick I will be deleting the the previous attempt at the live stream because it's it's good. Again, it's gonna |
| 9 | 00:04:21,540 --> 00:04:29,550 | have an issue with obviously drawing people's attention to something that only lasted for like three minutes and had to restart the stream so I usually don't |
| 10 | 00:04:29,550 --> 00:04:41,640 | like to have anything missing or deleted. So it really wasn't a complete event or or broadcast for me so that will be removed in this one hopefully will be |
| 11 | 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:56,610 | without any issues technically. The time right now is New York local time. 13 minutes after 9am left hand side we have s&p daily chart. September contract for |
| 12 | 00:04:56,610 --> 00:05:09,960 | 23. Right hand side daily chart for NASDAQ September contract 2023. And I want you to, to know that obviously I'm talking for the benefit of you all, they're |
| 13 | 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:18,150 | willing to sit here and listen, but my, this is for my youngest. So we're sitting here we're looking at things over charts. And I homeschool him. And this |
| 14 | 00:05:18,150 --> 00:05:29,460 | is part of the things that I inquire, require and have him inquire on a daily basis to look at price. These are things that I want him to be observing. These |
| 15 | 00:05:29,460 --> 00:05:39,720 | are also something that will be beneficial for you as well, while you're looking at price action, and today is a day where we have no bias, but we're going to |
| 16 | 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:51,120 | use intraday volatility. So that way, we can try to read the tape and look for conditions in the marketplace where the algorithm will leave clues this what it |
| 17 | 00:05:51,120 --> 00:06:00,630 | wants to do, and what it should respect and what it shouldn't respect. So I'll go through it as we go along here, but I have a time limit will cut off at no |
| 18 | 00:06:01,110 --> 00:06:12,030 | later than 11 o'clock. But if I if I'm satisfied for whatever I share with you today, prior to that, just be content with that. Okay, it's not like a four hour |
| 19 | 00:06:12,030 --> 00:06:20,880 | session. He has other things he has to do with his homeschooling. So I don't want for his entire day, he likes to play video games. So we made a deal. He |
| 20 | 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:35,550 | learns how to do this, well, he gets an extra hour and a half each day in gaming. Alright, so real quick. I don't know yet. I'm going to try to look at |
| 21 | 00:06:35,550 --> 00:06:45,780 | this as I do it with you alive. To determine what I'm going to focus on, specifically this morning, whether it be the ES on the left, or the NASDAQ. And |
| 22 | 00:06:45,780 --> 00:06:56,700 | a lot of questions I get many times is your which which one do I pick? Which one do I know is the one I want to be following for at that trading session or that |
| 23 | 00:06:56,700 --> 00:07:07,680 | particular day. And these are some of the things I go through. It's not obviously a complete list of things. But it's a down and dirty quick. You know |
| 24 | 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:18,450 | if I like Brenton Slager show up to your charts late. Okay, something happens. My wife needs my attention elsewhere, you an important, important phone call or |
| 25 | 00:07:19,110 --> 00:07:26,190 | traffic. Say I was out somewhere and long story short, I'm not in front of my charts overslept, okay, I'm human, some things like that it's going to happen. |
| 26 | 00:07:27,150 --> 00:07:36,720 | And I sit down, I haven't done any pre market analysis, I haven't done anything that would lend well to determining what I want to do just yet. So if it |
| 27 | 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:48,030 | happens, one of the things I do and I go right back to the daily chart, and I look at what is obvious, what is it done? What is it? What has it left in price? |
| 28 | 00:07:48,060 --> 00:07:58,470 | What has it disrespected. And I'll kind of point those things out that is salient to me, you may see things here, while I'm going through the price action |
| 29 | 00:07:58,500 --> 00:08:10,200 | that your attention gravitates to, because it's something I taught. And because my mind is keyed up on very specific things, either subconsciously, or I have a |
| 30 | 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:18,840 | premeditated idea about what I want to do. And admittedly, I'm telling you upfront, I don't know just yet, what I want to do this morning. I don't know if |
| 31 | 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:27,600 | I want to go short. I don't know if I want to go long. I don't know what the bias is. At this very moment, we just came off the heels of a holiday. The |
| 32 | 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:38,250 | morning session after a holiday is just like a big large trending or large range daily candle, the very next morning session, you have to play your cards very, |
| 33 | 00:08:38,250 --> 00:08:50,790 | very carefully. And don't be in a rush to plunk down and Ante up a big trade because it might do things that you don't expect. And in a day after a holiday, |
| 34 | 00:08:51,330 --> 00:09:00,690 | were like a bank holiday. And yesterday, the United States sort of celebrated the Labor Day holiday. So we had a very abbreviated trading session, I was able |
| 35 | 00:09:00,690 --> 00:09:09,270 | to take 2100 hours out of NASDAQ going short now. I'll show you what I was doing yesterday in regards to that too. But that was just the show again, my youngest |
| 36 | 00:09:10,530 --> 00:09:21,390 | price still will deliver even on holidays. But I tell him when I'm talking to you all because you're new, because you are lacking experience. You haven't been |
| 37 | 00:09:21,390 --> 00:09:30,810 | doing it very long in the impulsiveness of wanting to make money, getting out there trying to get funded accounts, get payouts and trade a real account before |
| 38 | 00:09:30,810 --> 00:09:40,500 | you're ready. I try to do my best to slow you down. So that way you don't hurt yourself prematurely. You're gonna hurt yourself gonna have losing trades. But |
| 39 | 00:09:40,500 --> 00:09:49,110 | it's important to stay motivated and not lose interest because of the adversities that this industry going to present to you anyway. So with all that |
| 40 | 00:09:49,110 --> 00:09:58,200 | out of the way, just know that what I'm suggesting to you today, do not if you are listening, and you're trying to do a funded challenge, because I saw two |
| 41 | 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:10,770 | people post on Twitter to me If you're trying to do a challenge today, do not absolutely underscore do not take anything I'm going to talk about today, as an |
| 42 | 00:10:10,770 --> 00:10:18,510 | invitation for you to go in here and take a tree. Do not let me influence your trade. If you're trying to do a funded account today, turn this livestream off, |
| 43 | 00:10:18,540 --> 00:10:27,480 | it'll be able to be played later on, it'll be on the YouTube channel. Don't let me influence your analysis, it's very, very important that you do all of your |
| 44 | 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:37,440 | trades with your own analysis, and you trust yourself because I'm probably going to say something that's going to go against what you want to do. And if you miss |
| 45 | 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:46,260 | a trait, or if you are influenced by me, and it causes you to miss a move or take a loss, you're going to find a way to blame it on me, when none of that is |
| 46 | 00:10:46,260 --> 00:10:55,830 | my fault. It's you listening to outside noise. And right now, I'm talking to my youngest son just in front of you. Okay, so just be mindful that the |
| 47 | 00:10:55,830 --> 00:11:09,690 | responsibility still is solely in your hands. Alright, so right away on the left hand side, annotating this area here. See this candle right here? This one here, |
| 48 | 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:19,680 | this, the low of that candle, which I'll move this out of the way. So unless one can see that one talking about this candles low, if you look up here, these |
| 49 | 00:11:19,680 --> 00:11:33,330 | numbers here, that figure right there. That's the low 4591 either. So that's what I'm drawing this box over to and anchoring it to that. And then this candle |
| 50 | 00:11:33,330 --> 00:11:47,880 | here, it's high, which is right above the cursor. That highs 4547 and a half. So this is a fair value gap. It's in the form of a SEBI sell side and balance by |
| 51 | 00:11:47,880 --> 00:12:01,470 | side inefficiency. Easiest way to remember that is a Sibi is a down candle that makes the fair value go. A busy is a up close candle for Vega. Okay, that's it's |
| 52 | 00:12:01,470 --> 00:12:12,090 | real easy to remember that. Does that make sense to you? It's okay, that unless you talk, they won't hear you. So the idea is that the market will revisit this |
| 53 | 00:12:12,090 --> 00:12:24,420 | area. And we bumped up into it here. This candle is high. Again, you're looking at this number right there. This candles high comes in at 4547 and three |
| 54 | 00:12:24,420 --> 00:12:33,690 | quarters. And again, this candle over here comes in at 4547 and a half. Can you see how that went up one quarter of a point higher on this candle right there. |
| 55 | 00:12:35,100 --> 00:12:48,000 | So it bumped up on that on Friday. So it touched it and then retraced lower inside of this area here. So this was like the premium like how far it can go up |
| 56 | 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:58,500 | while it was going here. Not to say it can't go any higher. But for right now we're just doing you early before the market opens up analysis. See the candle |
| 57 | 00:12:58,500 --> 00:13:09,540 | here. This bar where it stopped is this line right here. That's the closing price. And you'll see that right there. That closing price and the very next |
| 58 | 00:13:09,540 --> 00:13:21,780 | candle opening price, which is this one here. There's a distinction between the two where there's no body no other candle body that overlap between this candles |
| 59 | 00:13:21,780 --> 00:13:33,900 | close and this candles opening this right here is what that he calls it. Volume imbalance. Sorry, guys, I'm wearing a dad hat today too. |
| 60 | 00:13:39,509 --> 00:13:54,359 | And there is the volume imbalance. So the market will want to go back into this area. And it can do it multiple times. Until we get a body that lays on top of |
| 61 | 00:13:54,359 --> 00:14:04,559 | it. I won't I won't ignore it. It'll be useful in lower timeframe charts because this is a daily chart right now. So if we drop into lower timeframes, you can |
| 62 | 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:13,649 | see the influence that this has had as like a magnet on price. Okay, so it'll pull price down to it. And if it ever gets below it and might pull it up to it |
| 63 | 00:14:13,649 --> 00:14:32,609 | again, until there's a body that lays over top and between these two lines. Okay this wick here midpoint on that that's important to me. So we're gonna use that |
| 64 | 00:14:32,609 --> 00:14:34,019 | 3475 level |
| 65 | 00:14:39,570 --> 00:14:40,470 | to highlight that |
| 66 | 00:14:46,740 --> 00:14:54,990 | for shorts, I want to see price stable low. That means when that thinks it's gonna go lower. I don't want to see it go above for s&p, I don't want to see it |
| 67 | 00:14:54,990 --> 00:15:03,660 | go above this red line. It can touch it today. It can poke through But they can't do it a lot, but it has to come right back below if it does, as long as |
| 68 | 00:15:03,660 --> 00:15:14,520 | it's doing that, that'll expect it to, you know, eventually roll over and try to trade below this candles low. But using these lines here, intraday today between |
| 69 | 00:15:14,550 --> 00:15:22,440 | this red line and these two blue lines. So I want to try to use these two reference points just for the s&p This, this one here is this one on the left is |
| 70 | 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:32,490 | not the same as the one on the right it's two different two different markets two different trading vehicles. So we're going to use that we're gonna drop down |
| 71 | 00:15:32,490 --> 00:15:34,020 | into a 60 minute chart |
| 72 | 00:15:39,059 --> 00:15:54,209 | we're about six minutes away from the opening bell. So right away we have this area in here. So this is an inefficiency. The has a fair a gap with a down close |
| 73 | 00:15:54,209 --> 00:16:04,799 | candle to the enclosed candle Faraday gap is a SEBI sells Iron Mountain spies on an efficiency, read about these highs, here's a buy side liquidity pool. It |
| 74 | 00:16:04,799 --> 00:16:07,379 | means there's buy stops read about that. |
| 75 | 00:16:23,070 --> 00:16:33,150 | Okay, so now that's annotated. And over here, I have some of them, because I've been really worried about this one more so than that one. So I've been |
| 76 | 00:16:33,180 --> 00:16:43,620 | interested in as that versus the Yes. Not that it's any better or less profitable, just my attention to me on this one. But we had the same thing here |
| 77 | 00:16:43,620 --> 00:16:52,230 | for the daily chart, this is a fear of a gap in the form of a sell side imbalance by Senator efficiency or CV. So we trade up into that, and half of |
| 78 | 00:16:52,230 --> 00:17:03,450 | that gap between this candles low that candles high right there, split that in half. And the way you do that is you get your fear, put on the highest, and the |
| 79 | 00:17:03,450 --> 00:17:12,300 | lowest point. And you can see that that's what that line is there. So that caused that consequent encroachment, just the midpoint of that range. So we |
| 80 | 00:17:12,300 --> 00:17:24,150 | traded above that on Friday. And then we bumped into the low end of that city again, today, straight up into it and then went lower than Friday's low right |
| 81 | 00:17:24,150 --> 00:17:38,910 | here. And then we have this candle right there that low. This candles opening, or the body starts before it goes down. All these two levels here, this level |
| 82 | 00:17:38,910 --> 00:17:48,150 | here and this level here. I like those levels, if we lose the intraday load today. And that means the last load it made today. So far. Right now we're still |
| 83 | 00:17:48,150 --> 00:17:57,780 | on the daily chart. This box here is just showing up because I didn't set the right settings for showing what I want to show on each individual chart. And |
| 84 | 00:17:57,780 --> 00:18:10,200 | you'll see what I mean by minute. But I'm watching how we behave with the buy side here. So it looks like we again, we're using these two lines. Remember this |
| 85 | 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:18,600 | was these are the volume imbalance lines from the daily chart. So we're working down inside that we did here. So the market will likely want to go up and take |
| 86 | 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:29,070 | the buy stops here for people that are making money or have made money going down and haven't got out of trade yet. There's buy stops above here as well. And |
| 87 | 00:18:29,070 --> 00:18:39,210 | it's just before getting to that wick, the midpoint that we're on the daily chart, remember that red line here? So it's likely to trade up into that. And |
| 88 | 00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:53,910 | I'll want to see if it trades above here. Does it respect the midpoint that way? Let me show you what I mean. You're looking at me like that work right there. So |
| 89 | 00:18:53,910 --> 00:19:03,510 | yeah, to hear that, that's what that's like the, the line in the sand dad calls it like I don't want to see it go above that if I want to see shorts today, the |
| 90 | 00:19:03,510 --> 00:19:13,740 | best case scenario is that we stay below that. That line here it can tap it and just make a little bit of movement above it, but I don't want to see it go above |
| 91 | 00:19:13,740 --> 00:19:27,210 | it and have a candle body lay over top of it. Here so because we're direction lists, we have to frame everything on the context of the higher timeframe daily |
| 92 | 00:19:27,210 --> 00:19:36,180 | chart what it can reach for and still have really no directional bias. Then we go into the lower timeframes jumping from daily breakdown into the 660 Minute, |
| 93 | 00:19:36,270 --> 00:19:45,660 | one hour chart. If we find any efficiency, great, here's where prices now buy stops above it are here, the inefficiencies here and then we have buy stops |
| 94 | 00:19:45,660 --> 00:19:57,390 | here. So that's going to take this and make that the same thing. It's my snaps, or buyside liquidity. So it can draw up to here as long as it doesn't go above |
| 95 | 00:19:57,390 --> 00:20:10,650 | this red line. I won't won't be won't change my mind to anticipate lower prices, as long as we don't go above on a closing basis on the hourly chart above this |
| 96 | 00:20:10,650 --> 00:20:23,850 | red level, okay. So on the downside we have potential sell side liquidity that might get revisited today here |
| 97 | 00:20:37,980 --> 00:20:52,230 | and that's about it for right now. Because we had all these big lines underneath the candles, these are tails. And above the body is called a wick. But that |
| 98 | 00:20:52,230 --> 00:21:00,510 | sometimes messes up we call them wicks on both ends, because it's probably going to happen when I'm talking today. So dormant that confusion. If we didn't have |
| 99 | 00:21:00,510 --> 00:21:17,940 | all this here, I would like to use this. See the difference between those candles low is candles high that right there is a gap is called a sippy because |
| 100 | 00:21:17,940 --> 00:21:32,040 | it's a down close candle. So if this wasn't here, if we didn't have all this in here, I would use this as an inversion fair value gap, meaning that now we're |
| 101 | 00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:41,760 | above it, it should act as support to go here. But because we have all these tails underneath it, I'd like to see these things fail. And what was the other |
| 102 | 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:51,510 | traders might see this and say, Okay, it's support. And it's it's building a case for higher prices. And that might be true. But I don't suspect it's always |
| 103 | 00:21:51,510 --> 00:22:00,060 | the case. So while it might use this area here, like it looks like it's done here, it might run bonds, the buy stops here and immediate reach up into this |
| 104 | 00:22:00,060 --> 00:22:11,610 | area to knock out people that are trading those short. How we trade at this level, or if we get to this level here is more important to me for s&p. So |
| 105 | 00:22:11,610 --> 00:22:26,760 | because I say this, I'm not so interested in ES, my attention is still on this one. So let's quickly jump into the 60 minute chart. We have a gap here |
| 106 | 00:22:34,170 --> 00:22:46,200 | in time, you'll appreciate how the information I just shared about holidays when they don't let the market trade because it's you know a federal holiday or the |
| 107 | 00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:56,580 | equivalent that sometimes causes the market to be uncertain. As soon as it starts trading the next business day obviously has been trading overnight. And |
| 108 | 00:22:57,150 --> 00:23:08,310 | that is in my opinion not all that terribly important. Important I want to see what we're doing after the opening bell rang a minute and a half ago. So we have |
| 109 | 00:23:08,310 --> 00:23:10,560 | by stops here by stops here. |
| 110 | 00:23:34,740 --> 00:23:44,970 | And you can see how hit the bottom of this area here I want to show you what that is when this ran up like this on Friday |
| 111 | 00:23:55,440 --> 00:24:06,450 | part of this run here on the lower timeframe you're gonna see there is just like this is here on the downside. In other words, this candle is going down you're |
| 112 | 00:24:06,450 --> 00:24:18,120 | gonna see the opposite over here with a green candle, which makes it a fear of a gap. It's up close candle means it's a busy that acts as an inversion |
| 113 | 00:24:23,130 --> 00:24:24,180 | conversion for your Vega |
| 114 | 00:24:29,339 --> 00:24:38,879 | all this inefficiency here. Notice how this stops right in the middle of this here. It doesn't look like it's anchored to anything right. Now watch what |
| 115 | 00:24:38,879 --> 00:24:40,529 | happens when I drop down to a one minute chart |
| 116 | 00:24:47,579 --> 00:24:55,649 | see how the market hasn't really done a whole lot yet. It's been back and forth. That's what usually happens right after a holiday in the morning because |
| 117 | 00:24:55,679 --> 00:24:58,019 | everybody's in there trying to figure out what they want to do with their money. |
| 118 | 00:25:16,980 --> 00:25:25,440 | that's scrolling back to Friday. Is it department time where people that know how to use trading do better than that. They're wishing they could tell me do |
| 119 | 00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:39,900 | this ICT. Alright, so you can see right here that a gray shaded area is in work that was showing you. It's this candle high in this candles low. And I'm not |
| 120 | 00:25:39,900 --> 00:25:50,280 | sure why it always moves these rectangles around. But it's this inefficiency here. Because it's an up candle. It's green. And it's one single candle between |
| 121 | 00:25:50,280 --> 00:26:01,710 | two candles. That makes it so fair, I got in some busy, up close candle Fairbury get is a by side and balance also on efficiency. But if we're bearish, like |
| 122 | 00:26:01,710 --> 00:26:12,060 | we're over here, and Dad went short on Friday, for the folks that didn't watch that on YouTube, I did record that live trade, it's with real money. Not demo, |
| 123 | 00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:24,990 | and not a funded account challenge and not a funded account. Columbine are passed. It's it's a real perfect term. But this error here is this right there. |
| 124 | 00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:35,040 | And while I wanted to go lower on Friday, notice how it comes right back up to here, which is what this line is here. So if you take this tool, which is the |
| 125 | 00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:46,140 | Fibonacci in line on top here, and drop it on that low and measuring half. So if you take that off, now you can see what that does. Mine was there and look what |
| 126 | 00:26:46,140 --> 00:26:54,900 | the price did and went on to it. Just like a forcefield. It hits it. It doesn't want to go higher, it goes away and comes back one more time. See where this |
| 127 | 00:26:54,900 --> 00:27:06,990 | little line above. That's the wick. It goes above it, but the bodies are gonna biter are lining up with here for that one minute inefficiency. So that's the |
| 128 | 00:27:06,990 --> 00:27:19,110 | stuff that does students get crazy about. It's beautiful, hits, it sells off, and then works lower. And then look at these lows down here. This is what Dad's |
| 129 | 00:27:19,110 --> 00:27:27,600 | been talking about. Also, before we got on this today, whenever there's lows that are real close to each other in terms of where they are where they stop, |
| 130 | 00:27:28,230 --> 00:27:36,210 | that means there's going to be this right here is called sell saw here. sell orders below old lows. Same thing here. And that's where the market gravitates. |
| 131 | 00:27:36,360 --> 00:27:49,140 | So we left the buy stops here on the s&p Look at the bodies respecting that inefficiency, that is drill, you see that? These are called signatures. Okay, |
| 132 | 00:27:49,140 --> 00:27:59,220 | they're just little, they're little reminders that the markets not random. And there's a computer that's running scenarios for price to only reach to a |
| 133 | 00:27:59,220 --> 00:28:10,350 | predetermined level and then it will stop it, slow it down. And then either continuation, or it'll reverse. In this case, you can see it's drawn back down |
| 134 | 00:28:10,350 --> 00:28:18,330 | into those two levels I talked about, which is a volume imbalance. You see how it's drawn down into that we went completely over top of all these wicks |
| 135 | 00:28:18,330 --> 00:28:27,120 | remember I was saying earlier about how other people that doesn't use what daddy teaches. They see this stuff as bullish means it's taught you about the bullish |
| 136 | 00:28:27,120 --> 00:28:37,590 | and bearish. In California they had bull and bear fights and the bull would Gore with his horns up that makes it a bull market. And a bear would fight the bull |
| 137 | 00:28:37,590 --> 00:28:49,530 | by slashing down when it's closed. Everyone else that doesn't use daddy stuff will see this here. See these wicks are tested again. This is the tail on the |
| 138 | 00:28:49,530 --> 00:28:57,840 | candles. I don't look at that just because it's doing it because everyone else has booked through they see it and they think it's gonna go higher because of |
| 139 | 00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:06,900 | that. There has to be something else there for me. So I look at that as it's a suspect. Conclusion for anyone to look at that and think that that means it's |
| 140 | 00:29:06,900 --> 00:29:15,480 | gonna go higher. I demand more information. Like I said earlier, it could do it. But I'm not willing to subscribe the date yet. So I want to see how it behaves. |
| 141 | 00:29:16,470 --> 00:29:29,880 | Once it trades to this line midpoint again or the lower level until it does that I'm not interested at all in touching Yes. But back over here on NASDAQ we'll go |
| 142 | 00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,100 | back up to the 60 minute chart |
| 143 | 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:52,260 | Alright, so we are inside of this blue rectangle here then go to the daily chart because I want you understand what that is. It's this little fear Vega here |
| 144 | 00:29:59,010 --> 00:30:13,380 | so between this case Bubbles Hi, that's this price right here is here, watch that one, that candles high is 15,004 30.50. And in this candle right here, it's |
| 145 | 00:30:13,380 --> 00:30:31,350 | low, which is this value right there. That candles low 15,004 60 even, it means point 00. That separation between this candles movement up the previous candle |
| 146 | 00:30:31,350 --> 00:30:44,340 | stop at that at that point in the next candle after this one stopped here. So there's a little area right there, that it only went one direction on this |
| 147 | 00:30:44,340 --> 00:30:52,380 | particular timeframe, it means it went up, that is a fair value go, what kind of fair value gap is, if it's an up close candle, it's a buy side and sell side |
| 148 | 00:30:52,380 --> 00:31:06,180 | inefficiency, real easy to remember. Okay, so that blue box is framed on that. And I'm just highlighting Friday's low here with this line. That's what that |
| 149 | 00:31:06,180 --> 00:31:20,280 | line is. And then we'll look at this shaded box here, which is on the daily chart to the 60 Minute, one hour chart again. So we're digging into that daily |
| 150 | 00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:32,490 | fair value gap. And we went right below this candles closing price and look at this price right there. That is a rejection blob. So it went down below it down |
| 151 | 00:31:32,490 --> 00:31:46,740 | below at once more. And even the lowest movement here didn't breach or go below the midpoint of that candles tail. So we measure that to here, see how it went |
| 152 | 00:31:46,740 --> 00:31:54,540 | real close to it, but didn't go below it. So because it's doing it, I liked the NASDAQ to take the buy side here and maybe run up into this little area right |
| 153 | 00:31:54,540 --> 00:32:06,990 | there. I like that more than I like the s&p meaning that this one could go above this high here and trade into here. Before this one starts to behave and go up |
| 154 | 00:32:06,990 --> 00:32:19,830 | into it. So this is like the it's like the one that's in a hurry. So if it's gonna go higher than assets going to go up faster, to where it would go to if |
| 155 | 00:32:19,830 --> 00:32:28,320 | it's going to go up before the ES on the left hand side would do it. That's, that's what I'm saying. Okay, so it's kind of like the, the tortoise versus the |
| 156 | 00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:38,580 | hare. The hare is the NASDAQ it wants to run real quick and get it over with. So that's what we're looking at here. So we'll drop down to a 15 minute timeframe. |
| 157 | 00:32:41,310 --> 00:32:50,040 | Okay, you can see how, see how messy it is see us back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. This is what you tried to avoid trading and you don't |
| 158 | 00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:59,160 | want to look at markets like this and think I have to find a trade to get in and try to make money. Because if you do that, number one you're gambling. And when |
| 159 | 00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:07,920 | I tell you about that you don't, you don't gamble and find consistency doing it, you don't consistently get lucky. That's not what we're trying to do. We're |
| 160 | 00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:16,500 | consistently looking for things that make sense, that's easy to see how the market wants to go one direction over another. So if it's not obvious that it |
| 161 | 00:33:16,500 --> 00:33:25,650 | wants to go higher to a very specific level, we don't try to go along. If it's not obviously trying to reach for something below the marketplace, like a like a |
| 162 | 00:33:25,650 --> 00:33:37,980 | fair value get a low price, or a an old low the low price. If it's not obvious that it wants to go down there. We don't take a trade. Everybody else is going |
| 163 | 00:33:37,980 --> 00:33:43,590 | to be in here trying to do something because they had half a day of trading yesterday or they didn't to trade at all because it was a holiday, which is |
| 164 | 00:33:43,590 --> 00:33:54,150 | good. But their impatience is going to lead them to do something they're probably not going to be thankful for later on today. They'll probably not take |
| 165 | 00:33:54,150 --> 00:34:03,930 | a losing trade. And one of the things that that teaches is to try to be real, real patient not do anything in a hurry. Don't try to go in and try to make |
| 166 | 00:34:03,930 --> 00:34:12,690 | money every single day. We're doing everything in s&p See the difference? So you're just that dad just explained this and it happened. This one's not trying |
| 167 | 00:34:12,690 --> 00:34:20,370 | to go higher while this one went a little bit higher. But this one went right back into the daily volume imbalance. Find some here and went right down a |
| 168 | 00:34:20,370 --> 00:34:30,840 | little bit. So watch this rejection block this candles close. So what's the lowest closing price? While all the candles were going down right before we |
| 169 | 00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:34,440 | turned higher here, that price right there |
| 170 | 00:34:41,820 --> 00:34:44,580 | let's see how this influences price if at all. |
| 171 | 00:34:55,949 --> 00:35:08,189 | One of the things that I want you boys to do Learn is if the the markets are trading that are real close to one another afterwards, they, they move together |
| 172 | 00:35:08,189 --> 00:35:20,609 | in the same direction. That's what I talks about correlation. Correlation means. If a and b are real close to one another, A and B should move up. Together, if |
| 173 | 00:35:20,609 --> 00:35:31,679 | one starts to move higher, either the other one starts to fall in sympathy. Or if it doesn't, that means that you might get a trade setup in the one that you |
| 174 | 00:35:31,679 --> 00:35:39,929 | think is stronger. But you don't use a lot of leverage. That means put a lot of money behind that type of trade. You want to use your maximum or your standard |
| 175 | 00:35:40,379 --> 00:35:49,739 | amount of risk, which we call leverage. And that was talking about how you have this much in your account. This is what you can risk total. And then how many |
| 176 | 00:35:49,739 --> 00:36:01,979 | contracts? Can you trade with that? If you're using 1%? Well, if your maximum was 1%, you can't do that type of trade. If the markets are not in agreement. I |
| 177 | 00:36:01,979 --> 00:36:09,449 | mean, the correlation is off. Right here we're seeing there's a is a crack in the correlation. See, we're just going to record that rejection block. It wants |
| 178 | 00:36:09,449 --> 00:36:23,489 | this are here. You finished like myself, because they probably on the right hand side. Alright, so now we went below here. Wow, the NASDAQ is up here hanging |
| 179 | 00:36:23,489 --> 00:36:34,889 | around just above that daily shaded blue area, which is the fear of a gap? Do we reject this and go higher and start to get in sync with what the NASDAQ was |
| 180 | 00:36:34,889 --> 00:36:48,509 | doing us? Or do we see the NASDAQ lose ground here and go for this low. That's what we're watching. Okay, we're trying to get it to determination, what is more |
| 181 | 00:36:48,509 --> 00:37:00,209 | likely, there is no trade for dad to take care, there's nothing for dad to enter on. There's nothing that you would be taking a trade on. But knowing that this |
| 182 | 00:37:00,209 --> 00:37:12,689 | is what it's like, you can anticipate you can anticipate when the market is likely to create problematic conditions where it's real hard to trust setups and |
| 183 | 00:37:12,689 --> 00:37:29,969 | not know where it's gonna go. Because it's after a holiday that says Mark in the midpoint of that wick are here. Okay, I'm going to make these a little bit |
| 184 | 00:37:29,969 --> 00:37:43,199 | thicker, because the lines are starting to blur together for dad. So I'm gonna these are daily levels and their volume imbalance levels. You see what's going |
| 185 | 00:37:43,199 --> 00:37:56,909 | on with NASDAQ. It's finding support at the top of that we have a gap on the daily chart. Maybe scrunches up a little bit more, but there's levels and |
| 186 | 00:37:56,909 --> 00:38:09,929 | highlight right here. So the buy side here is by sign right here. On the ES. Notice where the bodies went down into the volume and bounce rate below an old |
| 187 | 00:38:09,929 --> 00:38:22,919 | low. And look how these highs are here. Are they close to one another? In other words, are they they're not the same price. But they're real close to one. So |
| 188 | 00:38:22,919 --> 00:38:31,769 | what do we call them relatively equal highs. So worried about that would be by side. So because there's no bias, and we're just looking at intraday volatility, |
| 189 | 00:38:32,279 --> 00:38:40,889 | without any impulsiveness to want to press the button. The importance of this today is really see what that was talking about last night, when we sit down. |
| 190 | 00:38:40,979 --> 00:38:50,219 | And we look at this, because it was a holiday yesterday, the the very next morning session is going to create this static price action where it goes up and |
| 191 | 00:38:50,219 --> 00:39:05,309 | down, up and down, up and down like that. So you don't want to try to assume for push your will into the marketplace on that day. Make making yourself believe |
| 192 | 00:39:05,309 --> 00:39:14,879 | that there's going to be a big move that's going to run real easy, from one direction to the other or one level to the other. Without having all of this |
| 193 | 00:39:14,879 --> 00:39:26,489 | back and forth, up and down. See what the NASDAQ is doing. Up, up, up. So it's staying in this little area. It's respecting that blue shaded area on the daily |
| 194 | 00:39:26,489 --> 00:39:40,559 | chart, which is the fair value gap. But it's getting right to this area here where there's buy stocks easily just like that real quick. That suspects it will |
| 195 | 00:39:40,919 --> 00:39:44,669 | but even if it doesn't or if it does, it means nothing. That doesn't mean that there's trade there. |
| 196 | 00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:00,360 | Thanks |
| 197 | 00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:22,229 | five minute chart |
| 198 | 00:40:41,430 --> 00:40:49,980 | and then you see what I did, all I did was write down the numbers on these levels here. That's it that has I'm gonna keep these paper here. This is all I |
| 199 | 00:40:49,980 --> 00:40:59,880 | had. And I'm putting this on there for them to follow along with what I'm describing to you, your your you see the paper, but they're looking at the |
| 200 | 00:40:59,880 --> 00:41:07,590 | charts. That way they can go right into the chart and see what it is I'm referring to. So you're getting both, like why? You asked me all the time, what |
| 201 | 00:41:07,590 --> 00:41:18,930 | are these numbers on this piece of paper all the time? It's these levels here. And I'm reading the time frame that I'm noticing. That's the middle number is |
| 202 | 00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:31,560 | okay. So 15 AM, and 600 Am that timeframe. That means that whatever the chart was set at when I saw it, that level is important to me there it's always |
| 203 | 00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:49,410 | and look at what we have here, the same timeframe. This is a five minute chart on this deck. This is a five minute chart over here on the s&p see these lows |
| 204 | 00:41:49,410 --> 00:42:06,270 | here, they're not matching lower in s&p, but higher and NASDAQ see that see these highs here? We're seeing lower on s&p, that is the biggest clue that you |
| 205 | 00:42:06,270 --> 00:42:17,700 | should not be trading right now. Because you're getting both sides, Sean S M T. Okay, it means there's it's they're not in agreement, a symmetrical market or a |
| 206 | 00:42:17,700 --> 00:42:27,840 | market that is easily traded, that means that they'll have runs that go real quick and price that just simply just move real nice. That calls it a low |
| 207 | 00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:42,180 | resistance liquidity run. This is hardly the environment for that to occur, because we're seeing opposing failed higher high on the s&p the NASDAQ was able |
| 208 | 00:42:42,180 --> 00:42:54,840 | to do over here. lower lows in s&p were not met with lower lows on the I'm sorry, the NASDAQ. So these are higher, respectively, versus are here. So what |
| 209 | 00:42:54,840 --> 00:43:01,770 | does that tell you? It tells you that there's a cracking correlation, but not in the sense that like if we're if we have a directional bias, and there's a crack |
| 210 | 00:43:01,770 --> 00:43:10,770 | in correlation, if we're bullish, and we think that the markets gonna go up, if that sees the s&p make a lower low and NASDAQ not make a lower low, and it's at |
| 211 | 00:43:10,770 --> 00:43:20,550 | a level that's important, like that's showing me here, I'll buy that. Because the Cracklin correlation means something it's significant. Much like this is |
| 212 | 00:43:20,550 --> 00:43:30,510 | here where we have no bias. It's only the morning session after a holiday. Where we expect uncertainty, we expect all of this type of movement back and forth. |
| 213 | 00:43:30,870 --> 00:43:41,550 | This is expected that students that's been with me for a long time, they know that this is likely to occur just like this. But it's further evidenced by |
| 214 | 00:43:41,730 --> 00:43:50,940 | having the market not agree on the highs and the lows intraday. So you have to sit on your hands, this is the part where new traders and when Daddy was |
| 215 | 00:43:50,940 --> 00:43:58,920 | younger, I wanted to be in there a lot. Like I wanted to be in your old time pushing the button pushing a button pushing a button. And that's not what you |
| 216 | 00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:07,230 | want to do on a day like today is to sit still and let the market work out what it wants to do. Right now everybody else is trying to do something. And that's |
| 217 | 00:44:07,230 --> 00:44:16,590 | creating sentiment sentiment is the view collectively, what the market thinks is gonna happen, which many times is not the actual case it usually does the |
| 218 | 00:44:16,590 --> 00:44:35,760 | opposite. Or does nothing just go sideways either or it frustrates them so see what s&p is doing over here. We have high a low than a higher high, this down |
| 219 | 00:44:35,760 --> 00:44:46,260 | close candle here. We traded up into that but also the high of the volume imbalance on the daily chart. So I'm looking at this with interest that do we |
| 220 | 00:44:46,260 --> 00:44:58,590 | respect that and go lower the trade into that wick that are highlighted here. And if it goes below that the sell side was resting below here. Why am I talking |
| 221 | 00:44:58,590 --> 00:45:09,810 | about that when like that because this is showing an unwillingness to go higher on these highs like the NASDAQ did, it's moved lower when the NASDAQ |
| 222 | 00:45:09,870 --> 00:45:22,140 | consolidated moved higher set means weaker or stronger is es weaker or stronger than the NASDAQ weaker. So it's likely it's more likely doesn't mean has to do |
| 223 | 00:45:22,140 --> 00:45:30,300 | it this way. But it's more likely to respect this if it's going to go lower. To reach into the WIC consequent encouragement and or the sell side the flip to |
| 224 | 00:45:30,300 --> 00:45:42,870 | here. And then if it does that, that might cause the NASDAQ to rotate over. Even though it has the higher high here, it might still roll over and attack itself |
| 225 | 00:45:42,870 --> 00:45:54,510 | on here. And there's a small little see a little gap right there. That's ice jumping right to the right here. Because right below this is sellside. Like this |
| 226 | 00:45:54,510 --> 00:46:02,880 | is a guy that over here, this is a level where cell stops where the there's a little inefficiency right there. And that's a boss out of jail cell Simon |
| 227 | 00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:14,100 | efficiency. So I'm just going to put that on the chart. Because if it does roll, that will be something to watch. Here. There's no riff that can't lose anything |
| 228 | 00:46:14,100 --> 00:46:21,180 | here can't make anything here. We're just observing this price reach for that, and it's a good study. |
| 229 | 00:46:31,530 --> 00:46:39,570 | And the problem is, is where would it say Say for instance, that's corrected, it might roll out into this low ticket, the sell side, and and go into this little |
| 230 | 00:46:39,570 --> 00:46:51,390 | inefficiency. If I'm right, there's no way that I can comfortably navigate all of this here and place a stop that's very small, because we're trading it for |
| 231 | 00:46:51,390 --> 00:47:03,090 | 73. Now, and the stock would have to be above here. And it's too much risk. One a day doesn't have any, it doesn't have a lot of market structure to support the |
| 232 | 00:47:03,090 --> 00:47:13,680 | idea. So you have to be content with just observing and price action. And that's it. Just sit and watch. Even though you don't take trades on days like this, |
| 233 | 00:47:13,710 --> 00:47:23,940 | even though you don't potentially make money or lose money, which is the benefit, you're not losing anything. These are days where many times you'll look |
| 234 | 00:47:23,940 --> 00:47:33,270 | back and say I'm glad I didn't trade. But I learned a lot about myself. And I learned a lot about what price is likely to do without any pain, no pain. So |
| 235 | 00:47:34,020 --> 00:47:43,380 | this is what that talks about in tape reading, we're not pushing any buttons, we're just observing how price will behave. We had multiple times ago Higher, |
| 236 | 00:47:43,500 --> 00:47:55,770 | higher higher, s&p is heavy, it's having a hard time getting above the daily volume imbalance as these two blue levels here. And if this thing rolls down, |
| 237 | 00:47:56,460 --> 00:48:06,720 | this will draw NASDAQ down into this low right there. And right into this little tiny little pocket of price. Were looking back from here, you can see how there |
| 238 | 00:48:06,720 --> 00:48:15,540 | was a fair of a gap there, we traded down into it. There's no fear of a gap in here until that small little section there. But that right there is just above |
| 239 | 00:48:16,140 --> 00:48:25,170 | this low. So if it's going to go to here, it's going to probably wipe out the low because their stops their real real orders are resting rate below that. So |
| 240 | 00:48:25,170 --> 00:48:37,710 | that means people that are trying to go up to make money, they probably move their stop loss from below here to there. So the market has two reasons to want |
| 241 | 00:48:37,710 --> 00:48:47,100 | to go down here to take the sell stocks below this low. And the market will want to clean up this inefficiency right there even though that's a small little |
| 242 | 00:48:47,100 --> 00:49:00,600 | insignificant little separation between two candles on a five minute basis. That inefficiency is useful for offering a efficient market. That's what the |
| 243 | 00:49:00,600 --> 00:49:07,950 | algorithms trying to do to try and facilitate efficient market delivery. It's not anything other than that |
| 244 | 00:49:16,199 --> 00:49:29,099 | we're about two minutes away from 10 o'clock. So the first 30 minutes that calls at the opening range and whatever liquidity is established at that point, we use |
| 245 | 00:49:29,099 --> 00:49:37,889 | that going forward into 11 o'clock. Any any inefficiency, like fair Vegas, we use that going into 11 o'clock. |
| 246 | 00:50:06,629 --> 00:50:19,529 | As it's dropping my eyes going to the s&p over here, and watching how it behaves once it hits the level here, which is that midpoint that all candles tail. So |
| 247 | 00:50:19,529 --> 00:50:27,929 | it's the midpoint of that consequent courtroom before we dropped down into the lower timeframe. And I want to see if we get there on the s&p, how are we |
| 248 | 00:50:27,929 --> 00:50:38,159 | trading at this low, if at all? Are we in agreement with both these levels being taken at the same time, or if this goes to it first, because the weaker the tube |
| 249 | 00:50:38,459 --> 00:50:47,309 | like ES is weaker, it means it's more likely to go were down as it's indicating here in the chart. The NASDAQ's trying to say I don't want to go down here. I |
| 250 | 00:50:47,309 --> 00:50:58,709 | don't want to go down here, I don't want to go down here. So it's showing its strength. When the s&p starts going down, you see that when this one stops |
| 251 | 00:50:58,739 --> 00:51:10,739 | reaching lower, this one is starting to show its strength. So what I do is I'm measuring constantly back and forth, observing how price is delivering relative |
| 252 | 00:51:10,769 --> 00:51:19,859 | to one another. Because even though everything's are between these two markets, the ES on the left hand side and the Nasdaq on the right hand side, because |
| 253 | 00:51:19,859 --> 00:51:28,049 | they're disjointed. That means they're not moving together to get do not intend not to do, they're not moving the same direction as they would normally. Which |
| 254 | 00:51:28,049 --> 00:51:40,079 | is a symmetrical market, because it's not happening. We wait for a shift intraday, there's a time where that no longer is a factor and they begin to move |
| 255 | 00:51:40,079 --> 00:51:53,279 | in sync together. That's what I wait for. Like I'm observing that once the inefficiencies, inefficiencies, but the the lack of symmetry is overcome after a |
| 256 | 00:51:53,279 --> 00:52:03,179 | holiday. Once it's reestablished, that means everything starts to be calibrated. Again, they move in tandem once more than it's easy to trust and or anticipate |
| 257 | 00:52:04,109 --> 00:52:11,609 | the market becoming symmetrical throughout the remainder of that trading day or the very next trading day. So it's not a matter of just expecting the fact that |
| 258 | 00:52:11,609 --> 00:52:21,989 | it's going to be sloppy, the next morning session after a holiday, it's you need to be observing price, real time best case scenario. But if you can't at least |
| 259 | 00:52:21,989 --> 00:52:31,319 | go through your intraday charts like that shown here. And look for when it did shift where they move, move in tandem. Once that occurs, even though you may be |
| 260 | 00:52:31,319 --> 00:52:39,419 | looking at it after the fact maybe waking up or finishing school or for people that are that students, they have a business or students or employees somewhere, |
| 261 | 00:52:39,959 --> 00:52:49,169 | they can look at their old data after the after the fact in hindsight and say, Okay, at this time of the day, which has not happened yet. There's no symmetry |
| 262 | 00:52:49,169 --> 00:53:01,559 | yet. But whenever it does occur, they can note that in their journal and say, Okay, now I can trust that it will be symmetrical. The next trading day or next |
| 263 | 00:53:01,559 --> 00:53:14,219 | trading session, if it happens to sort itself out this morning, then that pm session we need between 130 and two o'clock in that time period that begins our |
| 264 | 00:53:14,219 --> 00:53:16,619 | pm session going into the closes at four o'clock. |
| 265 | 00:53:44,790 --> 00:53:46,080 | Three got to have the power quality |
| 266 | 00:53:53,370 --> 00:54:04,710 | these are the these are the types of teachings that today's people online, they're trying to learn how to trade. These are not the lessons and I'm sure |
| 267 | 00:54:04,710 --> 00:54:11,910 | this is not going to be something that you're gonna remember. But I wanted to do just sit down with you this morning and see what I mean by how it's an ugly |
| 268 | 00:54:11,910 --> 00:54:21,930 | morning session. It'll be choppy, it won't really want to do a whole lot. These are the days that are going to hurt you and hurt everyone else that don't |
| 269 | 00:54:21,930 --> 00:54:30,240 | understand it. Because you'll want to do something and you'll get frustrated sitting here waiting for something to happen. And like Oh, whatever, let's go in |
| 270 | 00:54:30,240 --> 00:54:40,140 | here and click the button. And that did that when I was younger, I did it a lot. It wears you down where it's easier to have. I know it's likely to do this. So |
| 271 | 00:54:40,140 --> 00:54:52,320 | this must not have any impulsive tendencies creeping. There's no like if you look down here, see how I have it on the trading panel. That means that account |
| 272 | 00:54:52,320 --> 00:55:00,630 | not even a paper trading account, not the real account and not nothing. There's no way that I can even push any buttons that cause anything Didn't happen here |
| 273 | 00:55:01,230 --> 00:55:11,430 | at all, which is how you want to observe price when you're testing your tape reading, don't have any invitation or access to I mean, I think you can't do it |
| 274 | 00:55:11,430 --> 00:55:21,750 | obviously, that one to put it up there, it takes a second or two to call. But you make no allowance for that. You know, I'm not, I'm not saying that it can't |
| 275 | 00:55:21,750 --> 00:55:30,390 | be done. But if you're going to study with the purpose in mind that you're going to study, just the read the tape to learn to trust that you don't have to rush |
| 276 | 00:55:30,390 --> 00:55:40,500 | in. After there's a holiday like everybody else out there, they're going to want to get out here and do something because they were labor prevented trading a |
| 277 | 00:55:40,500 --> 00:55:50,700 | full day yesterday. And because they're gamblers at heart, they're they're really chomping at the bit right now. And I'm certain I'm certain there's going |
| 278 | 00:55:50,700 --> 00:55:56,220 | to be people that have already tried to get into a trade the day and they're regretting it. |
| 279 | 00:56:04,530 --> 00:56:16,230 | Whereas what I'm teaching you, it teaches you number one, you're never going to fear missing out, you're never going to feel impulsive. You're going to learn to |
| 280 | 00:56:16,230 --> 00:56:23,910 | trust, what that's teaching you, you're going to learn this. And you'll know that these things repeat over and over and over again. And if they repeat, that |
| 281 | 00:56:23,910 --> 00:56:30,510 | means they're controlled. If they're controlled, that means everything that's shown you will hold up, it'll happen in the future, just like it's been |
| 282 | 00:56:30,510 --> 00:56:43,200 | happening for us. As long as you've seen it. That's one of the things that you see on the emails all the time, comments on it, he's actually all the time. It's |
| 283 | 00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:48,150 | funny how they think, is this gonna stop working is it's gonna stop working, it's not going to stop working |
| 284 | 00:57:13,980 --> 00:57:23,550 | you see where NASDAQ goes now? The one on the right. We're down into that blue shaded area. you've dug in here a little bit deeper, Will it break below this |
| 285 | 00:57:23,550 --> 00:57:35,670 | low right there. And this entire wick this little line below the body that black handle they they're all this running right back up there. I want to see how we |
| 286 | 00:57:35,670 --> 00:57:44,700 | respond right now does it rip through and higher and reject this low fare Vega? Or does it go above that and then start using this really get that support, |
| 287 | 00:57:45,120 --> 00:57:51,270 | because this is essentially here of that blue shaded area, this movement right here. |
| 288 | 00:58:29,340 --> 00:58:42,870 | One of the things that you learn painfully is if you know that there's a lower degree of probability that there's the odds of it being stacked against you more |
| 289 | 00:58:42,870 --> 00:58:54,600 | than normal on a particular trading day or trading session. And you ignore that. And you just go in impulsively still try to trade it. The day that you do that, |
| 290 | 00:58:55,140 --> 00:59:08,220 | and you take a loss, I don't care if it's like a small loss like a real insignificant little bit of money. That will cause a great anger, you'll get |
| 291 | 00:59:08,220 --> 00:59:18,420 | mad, you'll regret it, you'll have remorse, and you'll want to fix it. When that's the days that people usually go into a tailspin and they lose more. And |
| 292 | 00:59:18,420 --> 00:59:26,700 | they lose more and they lose more and they lose more. And it makes it either hurt themselves to the point where they can't trade anymore until they put more |
| 293 | 00:59:26,700 --> 00:59:37,020 | money in or they become scared to take the trade the next trading day because they hurt themselves too much. So it's important to know these lessons because |
| 294 | 00:59:37,020 --> 00:59:48,810 | it keeps your mind thinking about the right way of trading it looking anticipating price that behave a certain way not be surprised that in average |
| 295 | 00:59:48,810 --> 00:59:59,970 | person looking at price today would be like oh, this is chop. You know, we're gonna sit with it and still look for a setup because they want to do something |
| 296 | 01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:07,680 | You know, I'm saying like, I'm not. I'm not saying that people can't find a setup in this, I'm sure somebody out here got lucky, you know, and want to call |
| 297 | 01:00:07,680 --> 01:00:16,740 | it skill. But this is, this is manipulation. This is what this is, it's not a lack of people wanting to buy and sell. Because if it was buying and selling |
| 298 | 01:00:16,740 --> 01:00:26,700 | pressure, if that was the case that causes markets go up and down, the market will be moving. This is manipulation, they're holding it until a bigger |
| 299 | 01:00:26,790 --> 01:00:38,340 | magnitude of sentiment is in play. Excessively bullish, excessively bearish. Once that occurs, then the market is allowed to unravel and run against where |
| 300 | 01:00:38,340 --> 01:00:51,690 | the majority of money that could be lost in current sentiment, then it run. That's what goes on after holidays. That's the mechanism. That's exactly what |
| 301 | 01:00:51,690 --> 01:01:02,940 | these algorithms designed to do. It does it all the time. Unless some geopolitical thing comes into the marketplace or hits the news wires. That's |
| 302 | 01:01:02,940 --> 01:01:14,250 | generally what ends up happening. And we're seeing it here today. So does this make you want to this doesn't make you want to, like, go in here and say, I |
| 303 | 01:01:14,250 --> 01:01:24,660 | think it's going higher, doesn't make you feel he wants to go lower. He's pointing he's pointing down. I think it's because he's, you sees that did so |
| 304 | 01:01:24,690 --> 01:01:32,100 | just assuming because I haven't done anything, I'm gonna be right about going there. So he's saying down, they might not go down there. But what my question |
| 305 | 01:01:32,100 --> 01:01:42,960 | was to you is, do you feel like you should have known 30 minutes ago, 40 minutes ago, do you feel like you should have known that it's gonna go higher or lower? |
| 306 | 01:01:44,820 --> 01:01:56,010 | Right. Now, only because we talked about it already. Because this is a day in a session that we would not expect to do anything in the session, because it's |
| 307 | 01:01:56,010 --> 01:02:07,200 | after the holiday. So the very first opportunity for traders to get out here and trade with real money again, because they had to stay out yesterday. Now they |
| 308 | 01:02:07,200 --> 01:02:17,970 | think only have four days left in this week, today, tomorrow, Thursday and Friday. So greed is hitting them really, really hard impatience is hitting them |
| 309 | 01:02:17,970 --> 01:02:26,760 | really, really hard. And whatever they use to trade with may or may not be in price action, you know what we're seeing here in the candlesticks, so they're |
| 310 | 01:02:26,760 --> 01:02:39,750 | going to be impulsive, reckless, and go out there and just simply just push a button and hope that something happens for them favorably and that is gambling. |
| 311 | 01:02:46,620 --> 01:02:58,020 | Now watch this getting roughly I'm gonna see once we got up over top this week here to be run through this gap. And if we do, does it treat it as support. So |
| 312 | 01:02:58,020 --> 01:02:59,940 | we're going to take this little box thing over here. |
| 313 | 01:03:04,949 --> 01:03:15,149 | Okay, motion see, if we lose this again, goes below it and comes back up and hits it and reacts to as like resistance, you start to sell off in the s&p that |
| 314 | 01:03:15,149 --> 01:03:23,879 | would be favorable for to go here. But right now it looks like the s&p may want to go back up and revisit this volume and bounce rate in here. Even though this |
| 315 | 01:03:23,879 --> 01:03:37,319 | candle went rate above it, that it's only a wick. So I think we'll probably drop into that on s&p. And that'll be like allowing that asset to reach up into the |
| 316 | 01:03:37,319 --> 01:03:38,159 | sky. So here |
| 317 | 01:03:44,130 --> 01:03:45,750 | to take these other lines off |
| 318 | 01:03:51,660 --> 01:04:05,160 | and do that. So today is a lesson on learning how to preserve capital, that means keep your money in your account. Everyone that loses their account, loser |
| 319 | 01:04:05,160 --> 01:04:12,690 | account loses or fails to find consistency. They don't know this skill. They don't know where they're gonna hurt themselves. They don't know how they're |
| 320 | 01:04:12,690 --> 01:04:16,950 | going to hurt themselves. They don't know when the market is going to be unfavorable. They don't know how to predict when the markets going to be |
| 321 | 01:04:16,950 --> 01:04:23,400 | unfavorable. They don't know when the market is going to be in consolidation. They don't know when it's going to be chopping the all those things that leads |
| 322 | 01:04:23,400 --> 01:04:34,800 | to a losing trade in the hands of a undisciplined person will eventually given enough time and opportunity sitting in front of charts. They will draw down |
| 323 | 01:04:34,800 --> 01:04:45,120 | their account or blow their account on a date just like this. So it's important that you learn this and understand what it looks like. You see how it's gone |
| 324 | 01:04:45,120 --> 01:04:53,940 | back and forth. choppiness up, down up down. That is very frustrating, especially if you want to see it move in. You have a trade on. It makes you |
| 325 | 01:04:53,940 --> 01:05:01,560 | scared it makes you feel nauseous sometimes when it's a lot of money behind it. And it hasn't moved in your favor in your afraid is gonna hit your stop boss |
| 326 | 01:05:02,670 --> 01:05:11,100 | ordered it in your in a tree that hits it, you're getting out, it forces you might be getting you out with a loss and maybe getting you out with a limited |
| 327 | 01:05:11,490 --> 01:05:23,700 | amount of profit depends on where you have at the time when the market trades to it. But today, so far, I'm very pleased that it's dealing with film because I'm |
| 328 | 01:05:23,700 --> 01:05:35,670 | wanting you to see exactly what this is. My students know this when it's a general, after all day, the morning session, you avoid it |
| 329 | 01:05:51,120 --> 01:06:04,020 | okay, see how we went above here, it just did it with the wick, nobody, there was no closing price above that moment balance. So this can resume going lower. |
| 330 | 01:06:05,310 --> 01:06:16,020 | If it goes back above this high here, that's not going to look at anymore, we'll close the charts up. Because I don't want to see how the ES reaches to this low |
| 331 | 01:06:16,020 --> 01:06:24,030 | and or through this. That's the only interest I have on s&p. Now, I say that because it failed to get to the realm of balance here I mentioned a moment ago, |
| 332 | 01:06:24,300 --> 01:06:33,750 | and it went above just a little bit daily volume imbalance. So this right here, I'm doing that as like a mohawk. Like one of those just coloring outside the |
| 333 | 01:06:33,750 --> 01:06:43,290 | lines type things. So if this is going to go lower, it should not go back above this level here. If it does, I'm not interested. And I will do a look at the pm |
| 334 | 01:06:43,290 --> 01:06:54,630 | session you want there to two o'clock. And then I move that will rather sit there and look at it again, then we're not gonna be live. So you'll be able to |
| 335 | 01:06:54,630 --> 01:07:09,240 | talk to him. No reason for you to be so shot. They're not gonna bite me. Or watching your head do this, you'll get more confident you come out of your |
| 336 | 01:07:09,240 --> 01:07:27,450 | shell. Alright, so we have to back down into this little area here. I'd like to see it just bump the low of that shaded area right there. Just to touch it. |
| 337 | 01:07:27,690 --> 01:07:35,430 | We're had the closer that can learn and start a new candle and move lower, I'd like to see that. We went down to the wick consequent person that we're going to |
| 338 | 01:07:35,430 --> 01:07:36,150 | go up to |
| 339 | 01:07:42,660 --> 01:07:56,100 | that level was this candlesticks tale. Okay, the width below the candle. That's what we had drawn there, it drew down into that. So as we see it drew breakdown |
| 340 | 01:07:56,100 --> 01:08:07,560 | in there. Okay, so without sound like I'm grandstanding on the fact that did a smaller movement like this. It's still nonetheless noteworthy because we went |
| 341 | 01:08:07,560 --> 01:08:16,350 | above the volume and balance but we didn't close above it. And when it did that you watch our transition. So now I'm expecting to trade lower into that, that |
| 342 | 01:08:16,350 --> 01:08:25,890 | wick, which is what it did. That in itself. For some of you, if you were trading at the low of it, when it was trading right there, go back and watch the live |
| 343 | 01:08:25,890 --> 01:08:34,890 | stream recording because it'll be on the YouTube channel. From here to get to that level right there. That movement is enough probably for some of you to make |
| 344 | 01:08:35,580 --> 01:08:45,210 | more than you earned it your job not to invite you to try to trade on days like this. But I'm saying that if we can see that little, tiny, tiny fluctuation, |
| 345 | 01:08:46,410 --> 01:08:58,590 | it's not hard to just assume that you can find bigger moves that are predictable. So reached down here in the sell side is the interest from the s&p. |
| 346 | 01:09:00,030 --> 01:09:10,830 | And we should see NASDAQ start to accelerate and reach for the sell side here, here and right into that blue pocket there. If we accelerate through that, then |
| 347 | 01:09:10,830 --> 01:09:27,000 | obviously it goes without saying that the sell side with the next draw on this. So there's ways of looking at this stuff without having to push a button and |
| 348 | 01:09:27,000 --> 01:09:36,570 | it's helpful. It's very beneficial to do this. Because it teaches you patience. Number one, it will also teach you how to identify the strongest setups and will |
| 349 | 01:09:36,570 --> 01:09:51,330 | also teach you by staying on days like this. It's confidence building. you're navigating in a time where everybody else is trying to do something and you're |
| 350 | 01:09:51,330 --> 01:10:05,010 | probably not making money but probably like you're really losing money. So we have another s&t divergence. went down to consequent question on the s&p. lower |
| 351 | 01:10:05,010 --> 01:10:22,110 | lows, higher lows, which one's stronger NASDAQ? Which one's weaker? Yes. So we got one delivery expected on s&p. But if we go back above here, now, volume and |
| 352 | 01:10:22,110 --> 01:10:35,040 | balance becomes support. Then by sight here, it has to get back above this high. And I'd like to see it touch the volume and bounce high right there, the hits |
| 353 | 01:10:35,040 --> 01:10:45,300 | that price could spool up into this phire Get right there. And if it accelerates through that comes above it, taps it, that'd be inversion for your breakout and |
| 354 | 01:10:45,300 --> 01:10:54,420 | then sends it to the buy side relatively low highs right in here. That's how I would look for s&p If it does that that's going to supercharge the NASDAQ trade |
| 355 | 01:10:54,420 --> 01:11:06,990 | up into its second level by side which is over here unless everything unravels if everything remains the same as it is in terms of the range that's how I would |
| 356 | 01:11:06,990 --> 01:11:08,460 | use the lunch macro |
| 357 | 01:11:19,770 --> 01:11:29,760 | here for the Royal balanced we're hitting that right there it's almost the same as here for that week too. As well seen it it would have to go above this high |
| 358 | 01:11:29,760 --> 01:11:39,990 | for me to flip my expectation for the sell side here at NASDAQ is this being a breath |
| 359 | 01:12:03,180 --> 01:12:17,700 | see the bodies see where they're forming Britain the midpoint between these two blue lines and where we go from here is going to be impactful. |
| 360 | 01:12:45,120 --> 01:12:47,610 | Jump down to one minute chart on both. |
| 361 | 01:13:30,030 --> 01:13:42,750 | Small little warm unbalance right there. So that comes out hits that that could be a sensitive area to see if it doesn't pick this high up first. So it drops |
| 362 | 01:13:42,750 --> 01:13:50,040 | down hits this area here. I would expect them to take this and expand them higher and then pull but it's here s&p Higher |
| 363 | 01:15:51,600 --> 01:15:54,840 | We're working at top of the two blue lines in here |
| 364 | 01:16:29,070 --> 01:16:41,430 | there's a small little gap right there and it's also the midpoint of this candlesticks tail I like both of those levels in agreement so have 4516 on your |
| 365 | 01:16:41,430 --> 01:16:55,650 | chart we'd like to see it before taking this high I'd like to see it come down and touch that sensor networks how we react here I'd want to see speed through |
| 366 | 01:16:55,650 --> 01:17:00,270 | that and then reopen here that's advice |
| 367 | 01:17:36,090 --> 01:17:38,220 | okay see that volume balance right there |
| 368 | 01:17:43,980 --> 01:17:54,390 | it hits that it should hit it in them send it higher up into this area here. So I would like to see a deal must NASDAQ really just falls out of bed in here. |
| 369 | 01:17:56,910 --> 01:17:59,520 | Small little gap right here to treatment as well. |
| 370 | 01:19:08,430 --> 01:19:21,300 | daily volume imbalance referred to it there. If it rallies back a ball, if it can treat this area right in here as support that would be constructive for |
| 371 | 01:19:21,300 --> 01:19:32,520 | Orion to this little area here and how we trade there too and throw it with extra support there. Want to let you rip up in that box |
| 372 | 01:19:42,150 --> 01:19:51,750 | nothing in this rally up here like this. After all these low low low, low, low lower. I don't look at that as a short it would need to get back below the board |
| 373 | 01:19:51,750 --> 01:19:59,970 | and balanced treaty Azure doesn't break lower, create a fair value gap in the form of cities that's an advanced class on efficiency. Then trade into that then |
| 374 | 01:20:00,000 --> 01:20:12,060 | and I would look forward to run before the global prices kind of tell him like where it's at now that that's outside there |
| 375 | 01:20:28,200 --> 01:20:47,670 | all over the place this thing rules, baby rules keep you in the game. Reserve your capital, your mental capital, mental capital is the part where you stress, |
| 376 | 01:20:48,510 --> 01:20:56,970 | you haven't lost any more money than you would be losing in the trade or made any more than you would have been. But the amount of time that you worry about |
| 377 | 01:20:57,420 --> 01:21:06,180 | should I turn the charts off shall be the charts on Should I take a trade should I stay in the trade should I move my stop all that's ending mental capital and |
| 378 | 01:21:06,180 --> 01:21:17,970 | stress, a lot of stress. And when you trade on days, they're not like this and everything's firing on all cylinders. That means everything's symmetrical |
| 379 | 01:21:17,970 --> 01:21:28,680 | market, your models obvious in the chart in the price action, you know you're looking for it's very, very easy to trade in those conditions. And that's what |
| 380 | 01:21:28,680 --> 01:21:38,970 | you want to try to work towards trading like that. Not everything plus that. Now, if you just focus on limiting your trades just to that, that's where you |
| 381 | 01:21:38,970 --> 01:21:47,820 | want to be. You won't trade every day. And that's good. That's one of the benefits of doing it the right way. If you're not trading every single day |
| 382 | 01:21:49,350 --> 01:22:00,780 | because it's stressful, it will cause you to want to do more than is necessary and that's how you foster the idea of a gamblers mentality feeling like well you |
| 383 | 01:22:00,780 --> 01:22:10,590 | know I can go in here and make $1,000 I can go in here and make 5000 hours so this is do it I know I can do it if I take a loss out from that I'm good you |
| 384 | 01:22:10,590 --> 01:22:11,250 | don't want to do that |
| 385 | 01:22:51,480 --> 01:23:16,920 | took a try out Euro it should have really kiss you guys are wondering eSports folks reach out here quarterly shift towards you guys. See this act as |
| 386 | 01:23:16,920 --> 01:23:24,180 | resistance inversion for your labor quick look at pound and there's some yearly looking for it not that long |
| 387 | 01:23:29,670 --> 01:23:40,980 | this area waiting here for pound I would like it to treat the low outside of it come back up and use it as resistance now once it goes below I don't want to see |
| 388 | 01:23:40,980 --> 01:23:53,490 | it go back above here so let's go below it come back up allow for as much as return pay off of it and once it starts to move lower again lower timeframe one |
| 389 | 01:23:53,490 --> 01:24:03,480 | 515 February gaps there city I use that to maybe study price running into this little bit here |
| 390 | 01:24:14,340 --> 01:24:15,090 | gold |
| 391 | 01:24:29,640 --> 01:24:30,840 | I don't have an opinion on gold |
| 392 | 01:24:42,960 --> 01:25:09,960 | Bitcoin will let us know accelerate them down into this inefficiency right there and how we behave in this We will determine how we get to 10,000 again that is |
| 393 | 01:25:09,960 --> 01:25:25,050 | down here with this fear I got this ominous sort of I'm not a crypto trader I'm just sharing a lot of people want to know our pain is it lower yes |
| 394 | 01:25:33,090 --> 01:25:40,290 | daily one valence particular injection anymore |
| 395 | 01:25:55,260 --> 01:26:07,200 | Alright see that fear we got right there in the low of the line the balance if he hits that if it were not a holiday day if there were not the day right after |
| 396 | 01:26:07,200 --> 01:26:15,540 | a holiday in the morning session I'm not saying you do this I'm not saying that you should try to do this even with a demo. I would expect it to sell off right |
| 397 | 01:26:15,540 --> 01:26:23,820 | now after winning demo fair but you got there take that and run into blow on this we're here |
| 398 | 01:26:33,330 --> 01:26:36,870 | going to show it on the right |
| 399 | 01:26:51,240 --> 01:26:51,720 | this is the |
| 400 | 01:27:07,440 --> 01:27:13,080 | drawl would be done if it were not holiday, there are answers after. |
| 401 | 01:27:44,220 --> 01:27:46,650 | It's been unruly today |
| 402 | 01:28:08,160 --> 01:28:18,810 | I suspect once we get through today's trading after we get post-holiday wrinkles out of the marketplace, I think that we'll have a really nice technical |
| 403 | 01:28:19,440 --> 01:28:29,910 | remainder which are very refreshing because everything will be in alignment will be in a time of the year when it is really liquid market symmetry returns in |
| 404 | 01:28:29,940 --> 01:28:36,120 | stunning fashion speed all these really good signatures that we look for in price action |
| 405 | 01:28:56,340 --> 01:29:05,250 | now let's play devil's advocate for a moment and say we get the word as well and say we get below the old love here. That's where the sell side is. |
| 406 | 01:29:14,880 --> 01:29:20,460 | This low can act as a fulcrum point. Okay, a fulcrum point |
| 407 | 01:29:28,620 --> 01:29:29,550 | for Swing Trading |
| 408 | 01:29:37,770 --> 01:29:47,460 | here you can take a fib ticket to the high downloadable word that you suspect is a fault from then on you're fed |
| 409 | 01:29:55,770 --> 01:30:09,900 | I like to surf and do one standard deviation negative have negative one here. Now explain why in a second. If we are able to, and if it were to move below |
| 410 | 01:30:11,970 --> 01:30:32,370 | this point here for were to break below that this could act like COVID analogy that makes sense, you say this, say this is a door hinge. Okay. And this is the, |
| 411 | 01:30:32,580 --> 01:30:43,830 | the edge of the door and the door has swung up. If this swings down and below here, it can only reasonably expect to move from this low to this high in the |
| 412 | 01:30:43,830 --> 01:30:58,740 | same distance below this low down, that would be this level or here. If I'm in a SILMO, which I'm not, I suggested to you already, that if it were not the |
| 413 | 01:30:58,740 --> 01:31:11,760 | trading day after the holiday, and we were not live, I would have taken a short rate when it is in here. I would still be short, even where we're at right now. |
| 414 | 01:31:12,210 --> 01:31:21,780 | Because the stop loss would have to be above the wind and bounce in here. If it were not the holiday, or post holiday. And I would anticipate this low giving |
| 415 | 01:31:21,780 --> 01:31:38,040 | way and getting the low here. If it were to show speed below this low, which is again, early here. That low I would expect it to speed up through that. And then |
| 416 | 01:31:38,220 --> 01:31:50,640 | I would want to see speed aggressively into negative five or negative point five standard deviation, which is here of this range from high to low, below this |
| 417 | 01:31:50,640 --> 01:32:06,420 | low. Half the trade would come off here. And then the balance would be aimed for here plus the spread between two handles. That's how we're going to indecisive |
| 418 | 01:32:06,420 --> 01:32:17,490 | day. Because we're post-holiday. It's the first morning session after Labor Day Solomon. So you have to be very careful about having very strong convictions |
| 419 | 01:32:17,490 --> 01:32:25,800 | like I'm suggesting here. But my model for Swing Trading on top this on the YouTube channel, I'm looking for these types of say setups where if it presents |
| 420 | 01:32:25,800 --> 01:32:36,630 | an opportunity for me to be short, I'm looking at market structure in a way where it allows me to frame if it were to sell off from here and be bearish and |
| 421 | 01:32:36,630 --> 01:32:47,370 | go below here. That would be the perfect symmetrical price move this one down here. So I would want to see that type of delivery. But how I would handle it is |
| 422 | 01:32:47,430 --> 01:32:57,750 | I would want to see speed as it drops right into here, or the range here. If I was in a sell program, if I was in a market that was bearish, if I was in a day |
| 423 | 01:32:57,750 --> 01:33:07,710 | where I didn't have any reservations about how the market made the stagnant like it's shown today, then I would not even worry about this level here. It would |
| 424 | 01:33:07,710 --> 01:33:18,660 | just be me going short, no partials below this low hold for the whole show down here and just use a trailing stop loss properly. And know what I just said to |
| 425 | 01:33:18,660 --> 01:33:29,880 | you. Whenever a heads up most of you is not listening, you just want me to talk about what it's going to do next. But I literally just describe to you the |
| 426 | 01:33:29,880 --> 01:33:38,910 | optimal swing traders model. If you know everything else I've talked about on this channel, applying what I just showed you there, you'll know why I'm taking |
| 427 | 01:33:38,910 --> 01:33:47,760 | partials on some trades. And when I'm not taking them on others, you'll know why I'm saying I'm expecting speed. And where I should expect this that speed to |
| 428 | 01:33:47,940 --> 01:34:01,800 | manifest itself in price. So it can't be too simply taught in like one video or a chapter in a book. It has to be seen with a lot of other supportive lessons. |
| 429 | 01:34:05,040 --> 01:34:13,410 | But a fulcrum point is wherever you think if a low is taken out and you're bearish, whatever the previous run was, just take that run in subtracted to the |
| 430 | 01:34:13,410 --> 01:34:20,910 | low and you'll get it and the way you do that is by putting your Fibonacci on the high below. Highlight standard deviation negative one, and that will tell |
| 431 | 01:34:20,910 --> 01:34:30,960 | you where he's likely to draw down to if it was bearish. If it was going to be in a cell program and it's moving lower, all things equal. The best case |
| 432 | 01:34:30,960 --> 01:34:40,740 | scenario exit on a swing trade would be this level down here because it's indecisive I want to see it doesn't trade below there. Take out the sell side |
| 433 | 01:34:40,740 --> 01:34:53,190 | here take out the sell so here if I were trading today I'm not in it wasn't the holiday you would be counseled to take something below this well as a partial |
| 434 | 01:34:53,190 --> 01:35:00,450 | because you're learning to trust it and then it makes it a lot easier to hold. See if it gets to this point here. And if it does, then you will take partial |
| 435 | 01:35:00,450 --> 01:35:08,400 | there. And then wait and see does it deliver and go down to here, if it does, wonderful, if it doesn't, you've paid yourself. And that's how you gradually in |
| 436 | 01:35:08,400 --> 01:35:16,650 | your experience you graduate in your understanding. And to give you the type of experience that you just can't get from watching videos by me or anyone else. |
| 437 | 01:35:17,880 --> 01:35:27,090 | Even if I called to trade live in front of you, if I did it for months, if I stopped cold turkey, and you didn't learn how to do this, you would feel a great |
| 438 | 01:35:27,090 --> 01:35:35,310 | deal of anxiety because now you're your goose that lays golden eggs is no longer given you the Golden Age, right? And that's why I teach the way I teach, I want |
| 439 | 01:35:35,310 --> 01:35:45,990 | you to be your own golden goose, avoiding goose like where you knew did you determine how many golden age you're gonna have? You trust yourself not mean |
| 440 | 01:35:45,990 --> 01:35:47,610 | don't trust anybody else |
| 441 | 01:35:53,640 --> 01:36:11,310 | see other bodies. Inside this area here with the bodies are in here. There's a lack of symmetry between both the markets. Makes it very difficult read this for |
| 442 | 01:36:11,580 --> 01:36:22,470 | precision basis. So make sure you have that screenshot documented in your journal and everything I said add that to the areas over here. So if we're gonna |
| 443 | 01:36:22,470 --> 01:36:23,910 | make sure you're include that. |
| 444 | 01:36:29,070 --> 01:36:45,330 | Now, think about what I said earlier, if this was a day that was not posted, holiday, my stock would have been hit right there. But because it's a holiday, |
| 445 | 01:36:45,720 --> 01:36:57,420 | yesterday, it's post holiday is the am session, I'm gonna treat that I lose that I teach you how that would have hurt me without actually hurting myself. Yes. |
| 446 | 01:36:57,720 --> 01:37:07,290 | Did you learn the context and appreciation for not pushing it in this environment. I don't need to push the button and teach that to you, I can tell |
| 447 | 01:37:07,290 --> 01:37:18,240 | you, this is going to be problematic, this is going to be a good trading opportunity. We're in low resistance or we're not in it, you can't see the |
| 448 | 01:37:18,240 --> 01:37:28,770 | benefit in that. Like I don't, I don't know how to bridge that gap. For folks that just can't appreciate sound logic. Like there's no need for me to be taking |
| 449 | 01:37:28,800 --> 01:37:31,560 | risks to prove to you something doesn't work |
| 450 | 01:37:38,190 --> 01:37:49,440 | how many examples we have to see where we're being protective. We're not trying to assume any positions in an environment that's not conducive for them to be |
| 451 | 01:37:49,620 --> 01:38:03,750 | high probability. And in being thankful that it didn't happen in the market didn't believe in myself would expect I would love to have been in something |
| 452 | 01:38:03,750 --> 01:38:09,990 | like this when I was 20 because I would have been in this day all day long trying to do something and hurt myself |
| 453 | 01:38:15,030 --> 01:38:26,070 | Alright, so now we have that gap. This should act as potentially an inversion for your bank that on the basis of time if we get back above these highs right |
| 454 | 01:38:26,070 --> 01:38:35,670 | in here, these bodies we run through that if we ran through it, if it touches it one more time. It would have to go through the rejection block first and touch |
| 455 | 01:38:35,670 --> 01:38:41,220 | it that would likely send off by run up into this wind the balance |
| 456 | 01:38:46,320 --> 01:38:48,510 | listen to what you said there's context there. |
| 457 | 01:39:11,040 --> 01:39:12,300 | Is a riddle today. |
| 458 | 01:39:47,430 --> 01:40:06,540 | With the body's candles respected and go below the midpoint of this wick or tail projection blocks taken to mean touch this level again does it be treated as an |
| 459 | 01:40:06,540 --> 01:40:07,350 | inversion therapy? |
| 460 | 01:40:52,110 --> 01:40:53,670 | Ready to divine bounce |
| 461 | 01:41:32,100 --> 01:41:40,350 | so watch this volume and balance again, trading above it, if it touches it, we'll use the same idea that we're using down here if it was to come back down |
| 462 | 01:41:40,350 --> 01:41:55,710 | to this level that could have been used as a entry for a tape reading long, not demo, not combine challenge entry. I'd like to see this area right here, stay |
| 463 | 01:41:55,710 --> 01:42:08,940 | open to no no return back into this area here. It can be responsive right there on that handles high right there. It should hit it memory act and go higher use |
| 464 | 01:42:08,940 --> 01:42:24,330 | this area as a inversion and rip up into this level here or this is the the upside of we're looking at what was running here if it were to leave this |
| 465 | 01:42:24,330 --> 01:42:29,040 | portion open right in here that could be breakaway. |
| 466 | 01:42:50,610 --> 01:43:05,730 | Just not a lot of clean price actually work within the Mazda despite wanting to know what liquidity it wants to reach for. So far, it's held up that this was a |
| 467 | 01:43:05,730 --> 01:43:20,760 | stronger one this morning. The laggard, the weaker one is the s&p. I suspect that if we take this higher here, there'll be a really nice short squeeze run up |
| 468 | 01:43:20,790 --> 01:43:23,220 | into the highs here. |
| 469 | 01:43:55,830 --> 01:43:57,660 | You is delivered to its by side. |
| 470 | 01:44:14,910 --> 01:44:26,070 | Before you can get to finding entries and precision entries and stop loss playing placement and stuff, you're Jubei. So you want to screenshot your NASDAQ |
| 471 | 01:44:26,070 --> 01:44:38,850 | chart right now. And go back through all this to that back through all this price action here. And remind yourself in your annotations that you knew that |
| 472 | 01:44:38,850 --> 01:44:51,030 | this was the upside leader this was the relative strength leader for Natha versus es so long as would be more favorable in this one is more likely that |
| 473 | 01:44:51,030 --> 01:45:00,720 | this will deliver as I mentioned in the first few minutes of this live stream and this is the ones being the laggard and Okay, so |
| 474 | 01:45:08,580 --> 01:45:21,630 | I'm watching two levels in here, the midpoint of this wick of the consequent encouragement and the volume imbalance. So this delivery is being supported by |
| 475 | 01:45:22,950 --> 01:45:31,800 | the halfway point of this wick, the volume and bounds in the order block. So, price should not go below here, hold this down close candle. That's how we'll |
| 476 | 01:45:31,800 --> 01:45:34,530 | use three PD arrays or your asses next. |
| 477 | 01:45:42,990 --> 01:45:50,730 | The question comes in is which one would you use? And I'm not saying by it, folks listen to what I'm saying. If you're going to be using any one of those |
| 478 | 01:45:50,730 --> 01:46:00,330 | PDAs, would you go long at the moment balance? Would you expect price to go up from the wine the balance would you expect it to go up from the consequent |
| 479 | 01:46:00,330 --> 01:46:01,800 | encouragement of this wick? |
| 480 | 01:46:13,020 --> 01:46:16,440 | So 45 twelves your loved one for constant encouragement. |
| 481 | 01:46:30,900 --> 01:46:48,210 | One bounce mean threshold. So Long's, or the idea of watching both price delivery should stay inside of this range of this down close candle, but no |
| 482 | 01:46:48,210 --> 01:46:57,630 | closing price should go below the midpoint of that down post. That's basically what I'm getting. If it does do that, that does support the idea of that, that |
| 483 | 01:46:57,630 --> 01:47:06,960 | keeps everything bullish and at this high would not prevent price from going any higher. And we look forward to trade in the here. So it's like you're constantly |
| 484 | 01:47:06,990 --> 01:47:17,250 | you're weighing price action. Every time it does something higher, you look back once Okay, where can it return back to safely and not undermine the underlying |
| 485 | 01:47:17,250 --> 01:47:26,760 | delivery of price. One a day like today it makes it difficult to do that. But that's what my mind is cycling through looking at price right now. |
| 486 | 01:47:43,650 --> 01:47:54,150 | I liked the idea that this candle closed right on the wine and balance and the opened here and I would want to see this one really try to get above the |
| 487 | 01:47:54,150 --> 01:48:00,210 | consequent encroachment level and then you can use this support and start running that would be favorable for continuation on the upside. |
| 488 | 01:48:58,770 --> 01:49:03,270 | Watching the halfway points of these tales here |
| 489 | 01:49:09,780 --> 01:49:22,980 | and we're looking at the laggard also. So the upside leader, the stronger the two indices, found its way up to its buy side, this one when you're looking at |
| 490 | 01:49:22,980 --> 01:49:37,080 | or if you're observing and studying the the weaker of the two. One of the things you have in your notes is you have to allow for a little bit more reluctance in |
| 491 | 01:49:37,080 --> 01:49:50,130 | price. It won't be so snappy, like real quick responsiveness to a discounted rate something that will boost your support price. It can just meander around a |
| 492 | 01:49:50,130 --> 01:49:59,220 | little bit and then eventually start moving up. That's that's the the frustrating part about trading when you don't understand the characteristics of |
| 493 | 01:49:59,220 --> 01:50:13,080 | trading in US strong market relatively strong. From a correlation stance versus a market, it's closely correlated, but moving in sympathy after the fact, which |
| 494 | 01:50:13,080 --> 01:50:22,830 | is my six sister concept where it's, it's likely to go up there, it's likely to go higher, it's likely to move in sympathy with what the other one did. But it's |
| 495 | 01:50:22,830 --> 01:50:33,000 | going to be met with a lot of opposition, which would make it what a low resistance, liquidity run or high resistance liquidity run high resistance, so |
| 496 | 01:50:33,030 --> 01:50:46,830 | it can get there. But it's going to go there. I gave a, I gave a story about when I was getting my CDL I had to go take a Greyhound bus. And I've never taken |
| 497 | 01:50:46,830 --> 01:51:01,590 | a Greyhound bus ever in my life. But I had to go down to Charlottesville, Carolina, in the trip was supposed to be less than 10 hours. And it took me like |
| 498 | 01:51:01,650 --> 01:51:12,150 | 18 hours, and a guy fall asleep on my shoulder drawing on me. And I didn't go to the bathroom the whole time. And sip the same water bottle because I was afraid |
| 499 | 01:51:12,150 --> 01:51:21,570 | if I drink anymore, I want to go in the bathroom. And I got up. And like my legs and my hands were completely numb. So my expectation going on that trip was it |
| 500 | 01:51:21,570 --> 01:51:30,630 | should take this long. But in reality, it was horrendous. It was so long, because he kept adding stops and stuff and I was getting pissed off. I'm like, |
| 501 | 01:51:30,630 --> 01:51:39,870 | What is going on here? Why won't this thing get me to where I gotta go? Why keep adding stops and drives like one you know, this is what we have to do. I've |
| 502 | 01:51:39,870 --> 01:51:51,840 | never rode a Greyhound bus ever again. And I never will okay, it doesn't work like that. So high resistance liquidity, Ron signatures are much like that, |
| 503 | 01:51:52,620 --> 01:52:02,130 | where they'll deliver, they'll get you where you think it's gonna go. But it's gonna get there on a time schedule that you're probably not gonna be comfortable |
| 504 | 01:52:02,190 --> 01:52:13,230 | in doing. So when we do analysis, we want to do a lot of work in determining which one is the leader, which one's the laggard, which one has the signatures |
| 505 | 01:52:13,230 --> 01:52:28,320 | that are supporting continuation, which one has unfulfilled either premium, in this case, a premium right here and up here, they're unfulfilled. It's like |
| 506 | 01:52:28,320 --> 01:52:40,800 | unfinished business basically. So we have to submit to a whole lot of discomfort, like all this business in here. Like for instance, if you were just |
| 507 | 01:52:40,800 --> 01:52:48,480 | using the midpoint, which is the mean threshold, I was talking about that little block, if you went along there, and you took your profits right at this high |
| 508 | 01:52:48,480 --> 01:52:58,770 | that's been breached right here. That right there is a nice little bread and butter setup. There's your five handles right there. We've taken up that high. |
| 509 | 01:52:59,490 --> 01:53:03,690 | And we want to see does it have speed above this high into this gap. |
| 510 | 01:53:08,880 --> 01:53:24,120 | And I'm sure that right, because it looks like spread out. What I'm suggesting is do this if you're if you're learning today, it would be a great deal of |
| 511 | 01:53:25,800 --> 01:53:35,220 | encouragement as educator in the mentor. If you give this video a thumbs up doesn't mean everything is perfect doesn't mean that you're worshiping. This |
| 512 | 01:53:35,220 --> 01:53:43,080 | means that you're being receptive to the idea that what I'm explaining real time how price should behave and how you should be thinking about it and how you |
| 513 | 01:53:43,080 --> 01:53:53,580 | should submit to it from a mindset standpoint, just hit the thumbs up and that way it'll help me determine the direction of these live streams because we'll be |
| 514 | 01:53:53,580 --> 01:54:06,540 | doing more of them as we go into the November month before I take my holiday break. So we're trading into that imbalance I mentioned here we've taken the buy |
| 515 | 01:54:06,540 --> 01:54:26,460 | side again in the higher high here so you want to screenshot your your s&p chart array now. So now again, I mentioned I want to see speed through here. I don't |
| 516 | 01:54:26,460 --> 01:54:33,570 | want to see any kind of like meandering around like it did down here. You don't want to see that. They don't want to let the traders they're short off the hook. |
| 517 | 01:54:33,660 --> 01:54:46,500 | They want their stops sitting there waiting to be taken out right here use up their funds well they don't trade off a one minute chart he's not they're not |
| 518 | 01:54:46,500 --> 01:54:50,220 | using a one minute chart what their order flow is resting right there |
| 519 | 01:54:55,980 --> 01:55:08,700 | guys come in saying that I use read Do you have stuff for looking at or phone recording I didn't use any of that here today did |
| 520 | 01:55:21,060 --> 01:55:36,840 | wanted to show you which one's stronger did eliminate or which one's stronger or the line unbalanced or here look at the bodies look at that little fear Vega for |
| 521 | 01:55:36,840 --> 01:55:52,680 | a while it's at rallies were over here it's moving up but it's moving at a pace that's been met with rally Paul's work out the idea of the PD array is going to |
| 522 | 01:55:52,680 --> 01:56:02,490 | hold is it going to use it to consolidate and then tears through it so now we want to see it leave this area with momentum and speed get up into here because |
| 523 | 01:56:02,520 --> 01:56:10,050 | as it gets higher and he stops up here they're gonna be like okay, I'm gonna collapse on trade and get out there they don't usually let that type of thing |
| 524 | 01:56:10,050 --> 01:56:10,470 | happen |
| 525 | 01:56:24,120 --> 01:56:36,960 | do you mean thresholds as you can see it just down close candle the entire range there's mean threshold so I told you that live watch that that'd be a sensitive |
| 526 | 01:56:36,960 --> 01:56:53,460 | price point you shouldn't do well under low that you didn't in prices range from there 17 In this plus show me something which didn't push the button I'm pushing |
| 527 | 01:56:53,460 --> 01:56:58,920 | all kinds of buttons that I'll talk about later on |
| 528 | 01:57:22,830 --> 01:57:24,900 | trying to stay with you until his eyesight |
| 529 | 01:57:39,930 --> 01:57:49,620 | so I mentioned earlier I said I wanted to see this little area here stay open if it stayed open that would act as a breakaway breakaway gap basically. So on your |
| 530 | 01:57:49,620 --> 01:57:51,960 | chart you'd have it annotated something like this |
| 531 | 01:58:28,140 --> 01:58:28,980 | looks like there |
| 532 | 01:58:34,110 --> 01:58:35,250 | is maximum security |
| 533 | 01:58:42,060 --> 01:58:48,270 | so this is the bottom that daily and we got to the daily real quick so that we can calibrate your focus |
| 534 | 01:59:16,740 --> 01:59:18,360 | to Me monitors and disoriented |
| 535 | 01:59:24,600 --> 01:59:36,390 | this inefficiency I'm not sure where I got that back into monitors I want you to see a delay when the device up. See these blaring right now. |
| 536 | 02:00:41,310 --> 02:00:55,440 | Yep. So you want to screenshot your s&p there. There's some randomness. So we had the boss I'd taken here, I'll walk you through all of this in the here, this |
| 537 | 02:00:55,440 --> 02:01:12,570 | is the silver bullet 2011 and 10, outline how you would use it using the 3d, three different PV arrays. It's still here. That's where the little thumbs up, I |
| 538 | 02:01:12,570 --> 02:01:31,860 | think you got to do another one o'clock. So in between 10 o'clock, we're looking for a fair value get within a bias drawn towards liquidity. We were not able to |
| 539 | 02:01:31,860 --> 02:01:44,730 | get below, meaningfully below this candles. Tail, the bodies were telling the narrative that they were not willing to go lower price router Hydra attention on |
| 540 | 02:01:44,730 --> 02:01:51,750 | this gap here. Initially, if there was a trade back down to it, we would treat it as inversions, whereby he got it right through it. Told you would use this |
| 541 | 02:01:51,750 --> 02:02:05,250 | level here as a means of instigating a higher price run if it touched it again, didn't do the rallied. Now, that right there that factor in reading price, you |
| 542 | 02:02:05,250 --> 02:02:18,720 | want to record that, as they were potential observations, don't wipe it, don't wipe it aside saying, Okay, let me just focus on everything else that did work |
| 543 | 02:02:19,230 --> 02:02:29,220 | in your journal, you want to say I would have been using. Remember, this is the range I had on it at the time in the back and wants to be the one in the |
| 544 | 02:02:29,220 --> 02:02:42,030 | channel. I had it, I think it was ready to turn. But I had this range here. And I said if we went above it, I would expect it if it hit this that would be |
| 545 | 02:02:42,030 --> 02:02:53,580 | sensitive and allows us to send price higher to attack here, drawing up a new volume imbalance and then eventually into this area here. It didn't touch it |
| 546 | 02:02:53,580 --> 02:03:03,870 | again, once it left it and stayed open, which is, again, why I left. The experience has shown you that this would probably be a break later, I want to |
| 547 | 02:03:03,870 --> 02:03:14,220 | see it stay open. Why? Because it didn't offer support at a level that it should have offered it. In other words, the algorithm forgot to even refer to this one, |
| 548 | 02:03:14,220 --> 02:03:24,660 | right. And personifying it being facetious. Margaret rallied, said, No, I'm not interested in going back here. We went outside of the daily volume of balance, |
| 549 | 02:03:24,660 --> 02:03:37,650 | which of these two lines here? I said, Okay, we can, if you touch that, that also could be a factor to allow a sensitive reaction, where price could be used |
| 550 | 02:03:37,740 --> 02:03:46,800 | to go higher. I didn't do that on either, because I had both of those. This is for the folks who are asking, How do you know when a breakaway gap, I looked at |
| 551 | 02:03:46,830 --> 02:03:58,080 | two different instances where I would normally expect if same as house mom, say I went long say I had a trade on, I would have bought more than permitted entry |
| 552 | 02:03:58,110 --> 02:04:05,490 | touching this level here. Once it went up like that, if it would have came back down and touched it there, I would have added more. If it didn't do that, and it |
| 553 | 02:04:05,490 --> 02:04:12,600 | did what it did here and it came back and touch them the top level, this blue line, which are again, the daily volume and downs levels, if it would have |
| 554 | 02:04:12,600 --> 02:04:20,370 | touched there, that would have a point where I would add it more in pyramid. So when you look at my, my videos, and you don't really know what is he buying, why |
| 555 | 02:04:20,370 --> 02:04:28,800 | is he buying there? Why is he adding more than it doesn't make any sense? Because you're trying to use the 2022 model. You're trying to use optimal trade |
| 556 | 02:04:28,800 --> 02:04:38,520 | entry, you're trying to use order blocks all the time. You're taking your limited exposure to what I've been teaching, not knowing all the other facets to |
| 557 | 02:04:38,550 --> 02:04:47,790 | order flow because this is real waterflood no DOM, none of the other stuffs required. But I'm using what I've already taught you and I'm measuring the |
| 558 | 02:04:47,790 --> 02:04:56,910 | importance of how price either wants to come back to a level I would expect it to be delivering to the fact that it doesn't deliver to it doesn't mean it's |
| 559 | 02:04:56,910 --> 02:05:06,360 | failure. It's insightful. That's a graduated understanding. I know that there's a Tom, Dick and Harry somewhere in there, certainly some asshat down in Texas |
| 560 | 02:05:06,360 --> 02:05:12,870 | sitting here watching us today, but he's pissed off right now. Because that boss, I just got hit right after I outlined a silver bullet live again, baby, |
| 561 | 02:05:13,110 --> 02:05:22,380 | where's your live streams at maximum last day, come on, put them back up here we all love watching it. But context gets lost in this simply me doing a execution |
| 562 | 02:05:22,380 --> 02:05:31,380 | video, peer meeting and building it up, you have to have all the storyline behind price action. And you have to see it conceptually shared, not just read a |
| 563 | 02:05:31,380 --> 02:05:41,460 | paragraph about it, make a video about it like it has to be done real time. So while many of you are excited to get these books on foot, now, it does not take |
| 564 | 02:05:41,460 --> 02:05:49,650 | away the necessity of going in here and doing this type of thing here where your teeth reading you're observing. And because both of those instances of this |
| 565 | 02:05:49,920 --> 02:05:58,050 | handle going up and not coming back down and offering another potential entry, it didn't give it to me there, it didn't do it at the high end of the volume, |
| 566 | 02:05:58,050 --> 02:06:08,340 | the balanced level. We ripped higher rate into the volume imbalance as okay, we went right up into the green belts. That means I'd like to see this they open |
| 567 | 02:06:08,340 --> 02:06:16,950 | now. Because it's broken away from all of the structure here off of a higher timeframe Pete here, right, which is the volume imbalance these two blue levels |
| 568 | 02:06:16,950 --> 02:06:27,180 | here. When I'm done job and the I'll take you back up to the chart so you can see what that is again, but having that in your chart on a higher timeframe, and |
| 569 | 02:06:27,180 --> 02:06:36,180 | then showing it visible on all timeframes subordinate to them in some lower like a four hour alley, 15 five, one, whatever it is you're looking at seconds chart. |
| 570 | 02:06:37,980 --> 02:06:47,580 | It allows you to trust what you're looking at. So while we were allowing for the market to go lower, it showed no willingness to do so. And we had what here. |
| 571 | 02:06:48,990 --> 02:07:00,090 | This short term had been taken to the upside is what a shift in market structure when NASDAQ was still going wanting to go higher. So now we're seeing the |
| 572 | 02:07:00,090 --> 02:07:09,780 | beginning stages of what I was referring to earlier today where when there's symmetry that's disconnected and disjointed, which is typically after a large |
| 573 | 02:07:09,780 --> 02:07:21,780 | range day, the next morning session will be like that, where it's disjointed, or after a holiday where normal business of trading and normal business hours and |
| 574 | 02:07:21,990 --> 02:07:32,160 | normal order flow and volume that would come into the marketplace. If it's not a full session, or if it was entirely not permitted at all. They're going to have |
| 575 | 02:07:32,700 --> 02:07:44,220 | this model that is used that causes disruption in symmetry, where in the morning session, you have to sit on your hands and wait until the market starts showing |
| 576 | 02:07:44,220 --> 02:07:52,770 | signs of symmetry where they start to agree with one another. And once that happens, even if you miss the best mover, which is NASDAQ, which really talked |
| 577 | 02:07:52,770 --> 02:08:00,840 | about on the outside, there was a lot of give and take back and forth on that even though it went higher, that's fine. You can go to the six Sr, which is the |
| 578 | 02:08:00,840 --> 02:08:11,940 | ES here today. And I drew your attention to this area right in here. The downloads candle mean threshold, it did not close below it, we whipped into it |
| 579 | 02:08:15,000 --> 02:08:25,770 | routed back above, took the buy side, trigger it into this area where it had the wick or tail that candle right there. That's what this line is. |
| 580 | 02:08:33,780 --> 02:08:43,560 | That's what it's anchored to right there. So it's here for that candles body. I'm sorry here for that candles which work tail stays on your toes, I get it |
| 581 | 02:08:43,560 --> 02:08:52,020 | mixed up. And then it's this fear of a gap here too. So I like both of those agreements that we saw it praying right into that look at the bodies right |
| 582 | 02:08:52,020 --> 02:09:01,380 | there. See how it's respecting that and came back down. We went above it. And look what we did there, boom, we touched it. That's inversion fair Vega. I said |
| 583 | 02:09:01,380 --> 02:09:09,960 | we want to see it just run right up into it so they can pull their orders right there. No depth of market necessary. This is real institutional order flow, |
| 584 | 02:09:09,990 --> 02:09:18,150 | folks, you cannot fake real time. You all watched me do it live in front of you. I've walked you through the adversities of this morning. I explained to you with |
| 585 | 02:09:18,150 --> 02:09:25,620 | great detail why I teach you not to trade in the morning session, but also taught you one more facet to it. That will be in my book. But you won't |
| 586 | 02:09:25,620 --> 02:09:35,970 | appreciate that chapter, having not been here watching me do this one. Because I will be referring to this video in that chapter. I'll say go to this video. And |
| 587 | 02:09:35,970 --> 02:09:43,860 | it'll be beneficial for you to see this. Don't think that you're going to watch or not watch but nothing. Don't think you're going to read these books that I'm |
| 588 | 02:09:43,860 --> 02:09:50,280 | putting out. And all of a sudden the tumblers going to click together because you still have to be in these charts. And there's going to be people still |
| 589 | 02:09:50,280 --> 02:10:01,260 | pissing and moaning that I'm hiding it from you and I'm not. I'm literally spelling it out. But your your experience seeing it, studying it journalling it |
| 590 | 02:10:01,500 --> 02:10:15,930 | and being exposed to it by repetition, that recognition is a response, the natural default response to you being repetitively presented in front of the |
| 591 | 02:10:15,930 --> 02:10:27,210 | charts over and over and over again, seeing it. Take taking little snapshots of it, all these little spaces in the chart, there's no candlesticks or anything |
| 592 | 02:10:27,270 --> 02:10:35,430 | annotated in, use that space to type out. I was expecting it to trade down here. And if it would have did that, that would have been a bar. It didn't do that. |
| 593 | 02:10:35,820 --> 02:10:43,350 | And when they went above here, I would expect it to trade down to that level too. If it did that, I would have done it like it did this right here, where we |
| 594 | 02:10:43,350 --> 02:10:51,420 | opened right there, and we've traded down to the top of the fair value gap there. Folks that's not support resistance, don't give a shit, what tech symbol |
| 595 | 02:10:51,420 --> 02:10:59,340 | we're down here talks about, that's not support resistance, man. That's institutional order flow. That's not anywhere else. You can't see Support |
| 596 | 02:10:59,340 --> 02:11:08,970 | Resistance in that. But that very function right there is what I was referring to, if it was to touch this on this candle went up, if that next candle would |
| 597 | 02:11:08,970 --> 02:11:16,620 | have went down or a candle after that would have touched that blue shaded area, that same response that we're seeing right there. That's what I was referring to |
| 598 | 02:11:16,650 --> 02:11:25,950 | there that would have that's a sensitive response. I would expect price to deliver on the basis of Bogside. No more, it's moving higher after it did that. |
| 599 | 02:11:26,310 --> 02:11:35,460 | But it didn't do it doesn't mean failure. It just means okay. Let me see what else is going to do next. Well, the next one was the balance Hi, the same thing |
| 600 | 02:11:35,490 --> 02:11:43,770 | if this candle would have traded down and touched it, they're the same response we see right there. That right there is how an aversion fair value debt works. |
| 601 | 02:11:43,920 --> 02:11:54,810 | That right there is exactly how an inversion breaker or inversion, ami pdra can be inversion levels. But they're not zones. They're very, very specific price |
| 602 | 02:11:54,810 --> 02:12:06,030 | points, there's three of them, the highest, the lowest and the midpoint. You're You're complicating it, I'm not complicating it. But you're also trying to many |
| 603 | 02:12:06,030 --> 02:12:15,960 | times, rush yourself through all this required learning of sitting in front of price action and studying it doing nothing but observing. That's, that's all |
| 604 | 02:12:15,960 --> 02:12:24,540 | this is, folks, you're conditioned yourself by repetition to see it. And by doing that, you will recognize the things that you're taking snapshots or you'll |
| 605 | 02:12:24,540 --> 02:12:33,090 | be able to walk out and see it live and call it just like you watch me do today. This is not a skill set that's going to evade you, if you do what I tell you to |
| 606 | 02:12:33,090 --> 02:12:42,090 | do, how long is going to take you to do it, I don't know. But you have to submit to that length of time that's required for you that's uniquely your rolling |
| 607 | 02:12:43,500 --> 02:12:51,330 | pathway, your your learning curve, it's going to be whatever it is for you and you don't be mad at it. Because when you get it, it will feel like it wasn't |
| 608 | 02:12:51,330 --> 02:13:00,360 | that big of a deal. Once you get there. When you look back and think mouse thing is gonna take forever. And it doesn't take forever. It might take you a couple |
| 609 | 02:13:00,360 --> 02:13:08,940 | years to get really, really good and so precise, you can see it like this on a one minute chart. But if you can do it on a one minute chart with lots of |
| 610 | 02:13:08,940 --> 02:13:15,570 | experience, it gives you so many examples. That's why you should eat whether you want to trade with a one minute chart or not. You might not be a person that |
| 611 | 02:13:15,570 --> 02:13:23,370 | wants to trade the ES. A lot of you are saying in the comment section please go back to Forex. Please go back to Forex. Can you just listen to me about price |
| 612 | 02:13:23,370 --> 02:13:31,140 | delivery here, because it's the same stuff in Euro Dollar is the same stuff in the British pound. It's the same stuff in the Japanese yen, it's the same stuff |
| 613 | 02:13:31,170 --> 02:13:41,460 | in everything. But if you don't, if you don't study it and practice it, you won't see that and you're wasting the opportunities of being in front of me. |
| 614 | 02:13:42,540 --> 02:13:52,500 | Having me in front of you live like this, because I'm not talking about the thing that you trade. But price is the same all of these markets are running on |
| 615 | 02:13:52,830 --> 02:14:07,380 | the algorithm. When he answered it, that's the reality. What's going on buying and selling pressure has absolutely no bearing on what you watch today. It's all |
| 616 | 02:14:07,440 --> 02:14:24,750 | time in price. I literally showed you how to utilize even in a sloppy day. I told you that silver bullet forms every every day but you're not going to see it |
| 617 | 02:14:25,410 --> 02:14:35,040 | with limited exposure or experience. I walked you through this one here that's that's the fear of exit right there. Right there we're just not going to be it's |
| 618 | 02:14:35,040 --> 02:14:44,340 | got to be below that candle as well. Why because that's the low that makes the fear value get low in parameter that's the that's the high that candle was the |
| 619 | 02:14:44,340 --> 02:14:53,760 | low the fear Vega. Also, it's protected because you're below the mean threshold of that down close candles is a bullish order block. Does your chart show this |
| 620 | 02:14:53,760 --> 02:15:01,860 | here? Did your chart do the same thing I was telling you mine was going to do before it happened in real time in front of all of you I'm quite certain your |
| 621 | 02:15:01,860 --> 02:15:09,420 | chart looks just like this are very similar to it. And when you know this skill set, you will be able to predict the future just like I did in front of all of |
| 622 | 02:15:09,420 --> 02:15:20,430 | you. I have veteran students that can do this day in and day out. It's transferable knowledge. If I didn't have that, I will tell you, I will tell you |
| 623 | 02:15:20,490 --> 02:15:28,200 | for whatever reasons. None of my students can learn this, but they can they did and they have and they use it and they make real fucking money. So I don't know |
| 624 | 02:15:28,200 --> 02:15:36,090 | what else to tell you. But just roll your sleeves up and submit to this process. It's going to take you much more time than you want it to. But it's worth it. |
| 625 | 02:15:36,900 --> 02:15:49,530 | It's absolutely worth it sorry but that's gonna be it for today. Hopefully you found it insightful if it was helpful to you if you learned something today if |
| 626 | 02:15:49,530 --> 02:15:56,100 | it helped you graduate and your understanding about what it is I teach about institutional order flow, real market making concepts and how the algorithm |
| 627 | 02:15:56,100 --> 02:15:57,360 | absolutely books price |