ICT YT - 2023-08-22 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Index Futures Review August 21 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-08-23 11:15
Outline
00:13 - Stock index futures for Monday.
- Stock index futures for today's trading on monday, no action on the dollar index or forex market today.
- S and P 500 daily chart for today and tomorrow.
01:05 - The inefficiency of the market.
- It is reasonable for the Nasdaq to move lower and then come back up into the inefficiency.
- If one of these indices is going to do it, it will do it.
- How to use the daily chart to get familiar with the market and get closer to the market when creating your own chart.
- How many candlesticks to keep on a chart.
04:43 - The daily inefficiency chart.
- Daily inefficiency, sell side with a lower low, rally up to the high of the daily s and p, balanced by sound efficiency.
- Close candle draw, up close candle.
- Trading the Nasdaq today, and why it was respecting its daily inefficiency, and how it reacted to the rally up.
- How the market structure was not as clear.
09:08 - Looking at the inefficiency of the market.
- Look at the bodies that are showing the respect of the signatures in action. Look at the body showing you the inefficiency.
- Take the short term low here sweeps it twice on this one here, taking the sell side exit went lower, but look at thebody's stopping dead in its tracks.
11:54 - The inefficiencies of the market.
- Rising and rallies up just fall short of the high, moving back down into inefficiencies, waiting for evidence of a longer-term short on the daily chart.
- S and P this morning.
- Looking at the Nasdaq high, low, high, high and high, there is an inefficiency projected on the other side of the curve.
- The first trade based on the framework that is here is a nice silver bullet short again attacking the sell side.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:13,349 --> 00:00:24,389 | ICT: Welcome back, folks. So short little review on stock index futures for today's trading on Monday. I won't be doing anything on the dollar index or the |
| 2 | 00:00:24,389 --> 00:00:33,719 | forex market. Today, I'm not feeling so well. So I'm going to try get some rest. And so we'll be back in the swing of things tomorrow, we'll do that. The left |
| 3 | 00:00:33,719 --> 00:00:45,689 | hand side chart is the s&p 500 daily chart. And you can see we had a small cell site unbalanced by Saturn efficiency between those candles low as candles high |
| 4 | 00:00:46,289 --> 00:00:57,569 | in the midpoint of that as consequent encroachment. That's what that line is there. After taking sulci here on the s&p do we move higher tonight and |
| 5 | 00:00:57,599 --> 00:01:12,269 | tomorrow, drawing towards this fair pay gap, I'd like to see that stay open. That would act in a manner that would be bearish, allowing for continuation on |
| 6 | 00:01:12,269 --> 00:01:21,029 | the downside, it's perfectly reasonable for it to come up into this area here. Even allowing that little bit of a wick outside of the inefficiency, it's |
| 7 | 00:01:21,029 --> 00:01:36,959 | completely permissible. So nothing has changed. In terms of lower prices on the intermediate term for me, it doesn't mean I won't pick a law. And it's not |
| 8 | 00:01:37,229 --> 00:01:47,939 | intended to inspire you to do one direction or the other. I'm just sharing my opinion at the moment. Same way on the NASDAQ here on the right hand side daily |
| 9 | 00:01:47,939 --> 00:01:59,369 | chart, we take taken sales high below here, all this back and forth price action. Okay. It's reasonable for to trade down here and then come back up into |
| 10 | 00:01:59,909 --> 00:02:13,139 | the inefficiency when outside of a here, he got real close to trading into this one. If one of these indices are going to do either this February gap, or this |
| 11 | 00:02:13,139 --> 00:02:23,039 | February gap, NASDAQ will probably be the one that does it. Should it do it, I would like to see it repel price and start moving lower from there. I don't want |
| 12 | 00:02:23,039 --> 00:02:30,629 | to see it trade there and go above because if it goes above it in my head for support. And then we have to start considering this area here for buy side as a |
| 13 | 00:02:30,629 --> 00:02:42,599 | draw. But right now, I'm maintaining the opinion that intermediate term. I'm hunting something for immediate term, draw and liquidity down into this |
| 14 | 00:02:42,599 --> 00:02:58,199 | inefficiency here. For our chart, say the cells are unbalanced based on efficiency, which is a fair value. trades up into it here on the 17th. We sell |
| 15 | 00:02:58,199 --> 00:03:10,889 | off this red area that shaded again that's that daily Sibi is a fair value gap, specifically a sell side unbalanced by selling efficiency. Its midpoint is |
| 16 | 00:03:10,889 --> 00:03:21,359 | consequent encouragement. That's what's being highlighted here with that line. So we took sell side on the daily chart consolidated took a lower low here. From |
| 17 | 00:03:21,359 --> 00:03:30,929 | rally back up into the daily charts sell Tenenbaums plus on an efficiency trading up into the bearish order block here and in consolidating into the close |
| 18 | 00:03:32,039 --> 00:03:41,249 | the four hour chart again, the shaded area here for the NASDAQ chart is its respective salsa and bounce pots on an efficiency from the daily chart. midpoint |
| 19 | 00:03:41,279 --> 00:03:50,039 | is consequent encouragement. Note that we traded down into this small little Faraday gap there to get into that, so you want to annotate that on your chart, |
| 20 | 00:03:50,039 --> 00:03:57,149 | I'm gonna try to keep things as clean as possible. So that way you can add them to your own charts. And so while you're probably just simply taking my charts |
| 21 | 00:03:57,149 --> 00:04:06,419 | and I'm already on top of them, you're you're cheating yourself the opportunity to get used to doing it as a daily routine. It's much like a form of meditation |
| 22 | 00:04:06,419 --> 00:04:14,609 | to allows you to get closer to the market when you create your own chart. I don't look at it as a time saving means by just taking my charts. You want to go |
| 23 | 00:04:14,609 --> 00:04:25,289 | in and try to set your charts up like mine. It teaches you how many candlesticks do I keep on my chart that way helps you repeat that and get familiar with |
| 24 | 00:04:25,289 --> 00:04:37,349 | dealing with the market comes all the way back down to the low end of that daily inefficiency efficiency on the NASDAQ whereas we went outside of that range on |
| 25 | 00:04:37,349 --> 00:04:54,149 | the ES hourly chart. You can see we have a vise on the quarterly poll here. Daily inefficiency again. Look how we were respecting it. Here are the bodies |
| 26 | 00:04:54,149 --> 00:05:04,379 | that is beautiful. Then runs down take the sell side here with a lower low Then rallying up to the high of the daily Solsona balanced by sound efficiency, |
| 27 | 00:05:05,339 --> 00:05:16,319 | specifically aiming into that bearish order block. On the NASDAQ on the right hand side, we got real close to taking its respective buy side, much like we |
| 28 | 00:05:16,319 --> 00:05:26,729 | were just mentioning over here. s&p is a little bit further away. NASDAQ, I believe will probably draw up into that in either tonight or tomorrow morning |
| 29 | 00:05:26,729 --> 00:05:41,039 | session. And how we trade there is, it was crucial in my eyes. Notice that we have the higher low formed on this respective lows here. Can you see that? So if |
| 30 | 00:05:41,039 --> 00:05:51,149 | I'm not mistaken, I believe it's 2am to 11am. And again, 2am, to 11am, respectively, don't take my word for it, look at it on your chart, annotate it |
| 31 | 00:05:51,149 --> 00:06:02,549 | as such. We also have a bush breaker, which is the up close candle right before the rotation lower. So we have a low lower low, we trade higher, we cut through |
| 32 | 00:06:02,549 --> 00:06:10,679 | all of this stuff in here, because we're not supply and demand cut all the way through. You see, we traded right down into it there beautifully at time that |
| 33 | 00:06:10,679 --> 00:06:22,349 | s&p was there. And we Wikked outside of that daily cell sort of bounced by China efficiency, that shaded area in pink, and then ran all the way back up to |
| 34 | 00:06:22,349 --> 00:06:37,379 | aggressively take out the buy side. This buy side and got real close to taking this one here. Same thing over here. Low high, lower low a close candle draw |
| 35 | 00:06:37,379 --> 00:06:49,589 | that through all this mess, gives you an x ray view on pricing, you see the sensitivity right there. 15 minute timeframe. Again, you can see the s&p |
| 36 | 00:06:49,589 --> 00:07:02,759 | divergence here. Versus the NASDAQ is higher low. And I elected to trade the NASDAQ today. And the reason why is because it was respecting its daily |
| 37 | 00:07:02,759 --> 00:07:13,499 | inefficiency. So it went down respected this rally up. The body stay inside the inefficiency that went outside of it. And we broke down and you'll see there's a |
| 38 | 00:07:13,499 --> 00:07:21,689 | breaker in here we'll get to lower timeframes. And a sell side was obvious as a run there then went to the bullish breaker has just mentioned and then off the |
| 39 | 00:07:21,689 --> 00:07:36,389 | races with it to the upside. s&p had a little bit weaker market structure wasn't as clear. And it wasn't in as much as a premium as the NASDAQ reach. So we had |
| 40 | 00:07:36,389 --> 00:07:46,019 | the high of that deal inefficiency reached on NASDAQ, but we did not see it here. All the while it did go to consequent courtyard, which is midpoint of this |
| 41 | 00:07:46,019 --> 00:07:55,289 | shaded area, which is anchored from the daily chart. If you're getting lost in the transitions from one timeframe to the next, the wonderful thing about |
| 42 | 00:07:55,289 --> 00:08:02,429 | YouTube is you could just rewind the video or replay it. And you'll see how all these levels are simply been transposed from the daily chart down to the lower |
| 43 | 00:08:02,429 --> 00:08:13,949 | timeframe. But we're seeing that respect. Look at the bodies of Costco encouragement, which is this midpoint of the shaded area here in pink. Now which |
| 44 | 00:08:13,949 --> 00:08:24,929 | one went higher inside of their respective daily cell center balanced by so efficient? Which is that pink box here? Did SMP go to the high end of its range? |
| 45 | 00:08:26,519 --> 00:08:39,179 | No, the NASDAQ did. So that's a better short. It went lower attack the sell side. And there it is, I did two trades that you'll see their anchor on. The |
| 46 | 00:08:39,179 --> 00:08:54,359 | analysis will show on the five minute chart. Alright, if I made sure here on the s&p, you can see just really was not as organized in terms of its market |
| 47 | 00:08:54,359 --> 00:09:04,799 | structure. We just weren't able to see the things that I would like to see what you compare and contrast over here. So we went to the high end of the daily |
| 48 | 00:09:04,799 --> 00:09:12,899 | inefficiency, the cells out of bounds box on an efficiency. Look at the bodies respecting it. That's like that's perfect. And that's what I'm looking for. |
| 49 | 00:09:12,899 --> 00:09:23,939 | Those are the signatures that helped me decide which forex pair like if it's closely correlated. markets like the POUND DOLLAR, versus the euro dollar, or |
| 50 | 00:09:23,939 --> 00:09:33,299 | Aussie Dollar versus New Zealand dollar. If I'm looking at them in the same capacity I'm doing here. I'm looking for the ones that are showing the respect |
| 51 | 00:09:33,329 --> 00:09:42,299 | of the signatures in price action. I'd like to say this is the better short because it's higher in terms of its daily inefficiency, versus the midpoint |
| 52 | 00:09:42,299 --> 00:09:52,979 | here. Both are gonna sell off likely, yes. But I want to be in the one that has the higher premium at the time. Even though the s&p makes a lower low and it has |
| 53 | 00:09:52,979 --> 00:10:03,179 | the, the lower low for the s&p. I don't care about that. I'm aiming for the sell side here. And it goes rate there and look at the bodies. Again, which ones |
| 54 | 00:10:03,179 --> 00:10:12,989 | showing you the respect the inefficiency, extreme high as that taking the short term low here |
| 55 | 00:10:15,389 --> 00:10:25,739 | sweeps it twice. On this one here I took the sell side exit went lower, but look at the body's stopping dead in its tracks on that low wick through hits the |
| 56 | 00:10:25,739 --> 00:10:33,809 | bullish breaker and then rallies, I was asleep during all this, I wasn't able to really participate if I would have been I would have been all over it right |
| 57 | 00:10:33,839 --> 00:10:46,829 | there. And then once you start to trade lower in here, I used that bearish order block there. And it drops down into that level right there that gave me my |
| 58 | 00:10:47,549 --> 00:10:59,699 | second exit or short. Mark turns. If you look at this low here, which is inside this boss Annabelle sauce on efficiency, it's an institutional Oracle entry |
| 59 | 00:10:59,699 --> 00:11:11,579 | drill. Extend this range is breaker range extended over and you'll see that it's hitting the mean threshold of this down close candle from high to low midpoint |
| 60 | 00:11:11,939 --> 00:11:22,559 | is mean threshold. It's not consequent encroachment, because it's not a wick, or it's not a gap. This is mean threshold, but it's acting as an inversion level. |
| 61 | 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:32,309 | So it's creating a level that would act as we're was over here. During the sell side of the curve, it's bearish. But it's a bearish breakout, it's becoming an |
| 62 | 00:11:32,309 --> 00:11:45,659 | inversion level where midpoint of that starts to rally. All the consolidation here finally accelerates takes out the high here. And then as you can see, it |
| 63 | 00:11:45,659 --> 00:11:59,099 | just moves in is a nice silver bullet here for two o'clock. The stop would be below that candle there. And rallies up just fall short of the high which I'm |
| 64 | 00:11:59,099 --> 00:12:09,359 | gonna go back up one timeframe or actually two timeframe sorry. This highs what's being highlighted |
| 65 | 00:12:16,770 --> 00:12:26,070 | with this line here, okay, so I've got real close to that. And we move back down into these inefficiencies. And we'll see if we want to get up there tonight in |
| 66 | 00:12:26,070 --> 00:12:41,970 | London oriented tomorrow morning session. If we get back below the consequent portrait of the last x dealing in inefficiency here. We will resume being |
| 67 | 00:12:41,970 --> 00:12:56,670 | bearish. Right now. It's consolidation to modestly bullish on a intraday basis. But I'm waiting for the evidence that we're going to see a longer term short on |
| 68 | 00:12:56,670 --> 00:13:05,700 | the daily chart. So those types of trades or swing trading models did take a little bit of time to develop. And you can have a series of up close candles |
| 69 | 00:13:07,140 --> 00:13:21,330 | formed before the actual setup forms for a longer term, macro short. And finally, getting to the one minute chart. Here we have a high, low higher high, |
| 70 | 00:13:22,110 --> 00:13:29,070 | the down close candle here that's shaded, that's a bearish breaker, you can see we trade into that here, we trade outside of that range and break back up into |
| 71 | 00:13:29,070 --> 00:13:41,280 | it and trading right into this lower portion of this range. So what's the high in the low that damn close candle, send that through that you're bearish |
| 72 | 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:52,260 | breaker. Then we have relative equal highs that that gets taken out in the afternoon and drops now, I didn't see anything in the s&p this morning that I |
| 73 | 00:13:52,260 --> 00:14:05,850 | want to participate in. Now look at the NASDAQ High, Low higher high. We have a inefficiency here projected on the other side of the curve means we're running |
| 74 | 00:14:05,850 --> 00:14:15,450 | up as a Judas sells off. So now we're on the sell side of the curve. Over here we have an inefficiency projected to the other side. It's gonna be an inversion |
| 75 | 00:14:15,450 --> 00:14:26,310 | fair value got it, it wouldn't have traded to the high end this daily sell zone bounced by 10 efficiency, the rectangle that's shaded red. We're at the high end |
| 76 | 00:14:26,310 --> 00:14:38,760 | of it right here if it hadn't done that yet, okay, and say from the high of the shaded area to the low if it was like this high but only when its highs here and |
| 77 | 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:47,010 | then dropped down into something like this. I would have used that inefficiency to go along. Then reach for the high in that daily inefficiency like it did |
| 78 | 00:14:47,010 --> 00:14:58,500 | here. But because it went to it. This over here now becomes a potential inversion fair Vega. My trades outside of backup in look at the body's real |
| 79 | 00:14:58,500 --> 00:15:08,670 | close consequent course. choses half of this inefficiency. We definitely hit it their bodies respecting it as well and the accelerates down to the sell side and |
| 80 | 00:15:08,670 --> 00:15:21,150 | into this inefficiency. So that was the first trade based on the framework that's here. And we had a inefficiency there. You beautiful run up in this is a |
| 81 | 00:15:21,150 --> 00:15:32,100 | nice silver bullet short, again attacking the sell side here in the sell side here, the lines here and in the bullish breakout level down here. So it digs |
| 82 | 00:15:32,100 --> 00:15:46,680 | into it. That's where I got my second trades exit it and I was away from the charts here, and then ultimately went higher. So I only did a little bit of work |
| 83 | 00:15:46,830 --> 00:15:56,340 | today for the NASDAQ. I didn't touch the s&p, and it was you know, at $2,600 on to the Live account. showed that on Twitter. You're welcome. Take a look at |
| 84 | 00:15:56,340 --> 00:16:07,110 | that. But I'm going to get some rest. And I know I'm under weather because I'm wanting sleep and I don't usually want a lot of sleep not wanting a lot of sleep |
| 85 | 00:16:07,110 --> 00:16:11,670 | all day today. So let me get back to it. And the total tomorrow. Be safe. |