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ICT YT - 2023-08-22 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Index Futures Review August 21 2023

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-08-23 11:15

Outline

00:13 - Stock index futures for Monday.

- Stock index futures for today's trading on monday, no action on the dollar index or forex market today.
- S and P 500 daily chart for today and tomorrow.

01:05 - The inefficiency of the market.

- It is reasonable for the Nasdaq to move lower and then come back up into the inefficiency.
- If one of these indices is going to do it, it will do it.
- How to use the daily chart to get familiar with the market and get closer to the market when creating your own chart.
- How many candlesticks to keep on a chart.

04:43 - The daily inefficiency chart.

- Daily inefficiency, sell side with a lower low, rally up to the high of the daily s and p, balanced by sound efficiency.
- Close candle draw, up close candle.
- Trading the Nasdaq today, and why it was respecting its daily inefficiency, and how it reacted to the rally up.
- How the market structure was not as clear.

09:08 - Looking at the inefficiency of the market.

- Look at the bodies that are showing the respect of the signatures in action. Look at the body showing you the inefficiency.
- Take the short term low here sweeps it twice on this one here, taking the sell side exit went lower, but look at thebody's stopping dead in its tracks.

11:54 - The inefficiencies of the market.

- Rising and rallies up just fall short of the high, moving back down into inefficiencies, waiting for evidence of a longer-term short on the daily chart.
- S and P this morning.
- Looking at the Nasdaq high, low, high, high and high, there is an inefficiency projected on the other side of the curve.
- The first trade based on the framework that is here is a nice silver bullet short again attacking the sell side.

Transcription

1 00:00:13,349 --> 00:00:24,389 ICT: Welcome back, folks. So short little review on stock index futures for today's trading on Monday. I won't be doing anything on the dollar index or the
2 00:00:24,389 --> 00:00:33,719 forex market. Today, I'm not feeling so well. So I'm going to try get some rest. And so we'll be back in the swing of things tomorrow, we'll do that. The left
3 00:00:33,719 --> 00:00:45,689 hand side chart is the s&p 500 daily chart. And you can see we had a small cell site unbalanced by Saturn efficiency between those candles low as candles high
4 00:00:46,289 --> 00:00:57,569 in the midpoint of that as consequent encroachment. That's what that line is there. After taking sulci here on the s&p do we move higher tonight and
5 00:00:57,599 --> 00:01:12,269 tomorrow, drawing towards this fair pay gap, I'd like to see that stay open. That would act in a manner that would be bearish, allowing for continuation on
6 00:01:12,269 --> 00:01:21,029 the downside, it's perfectly reasonable for it to come up into this area here. Even allowing that little bit of a wick outside of the inefficiency, it's
7 00:01:21,029 --> 00:01:36,959 completely permissible. So nothing has changed. In terms of lower prices on the intermediate term for me, it doesn't mean I won't pick a law. And it's not
8 00:01:37,229 --> 00:01:47,939 intended to inspire you to do one direction or the other. I'm just sharing my opinion at the moment. Same way on the NASDAQ here on the right hand side daily
9 00:01:47,939 --> 00:01:59,369 chart, we take taken sales high below here, all this back and forth price action. Okay. It's reasonable for to trade down here and then come back up into
10 00:01:59,909 --> 00:02:13,139 the inefficiency when outside of a here, he got real close to trading into this one. If one of these indices are going to do either this February gap, or this
11 00:02:13,139 --> 00:02:23,039 February gap, NASDAQ will probably be the one that does it. Should it do it, I would like to see it repel price and start moving lower from there. I don't want
12 00:02:23,039 --> 00:02:30,629 to see it trade there and go above because if it goes above it in my head for support. And then we have to start considering this area here for buy side as a
13 00:02:30,629 --> 00:02:42,599 draw. But right now, I'm maintaining the opinion that intermediate term. I'm hunting something for immediate term, draw and liquidity down into this
14 00:02:42,599 --> 00:02:58,199 inefficiency here. For our chart, say the cells are unbalanced based on efficiency, which is a fair value. trades up into it here on the 17th. We sell
15 00:02:58,199 --> 00:03:10,889 off this red area that shaded again that's that daily Sibi is a fair value gap, specifically a sell side unbalanced by selling efficiency. Its midpoint is
16 00:03:10,889 --> 00:03:21,359 consequent encouragement. That's what's being highlighted here with that line. So we took sell side on the daily chart consolidated took a lower low here. From
17 00:03:21,359 --> 00:03:30,929 rally back up into the daily charts sell Tenenbaums plus on an efficiency trading up into the bearish order block here and in consolidating into the close
18 00:03:32,039 --> 00:03:41,249 the four hour chart again, the shaded area here for the NASDAQ chart is its respective salsa and bounce pots on an efficiency from the daily chart. midpoint
19 00:03:41,279 --> 00:03:50,039 is consequent encouragement. Note that we traded down into this small little Faraday gap there to get into that, so you want to annotate that on your chart,
20 00:03:50,039 --> 00:03:57,149 I'm gonna try to keep things as clean as possible. So that way you can add them to your own charts. And so while you're probably just simply taking my charts
21 00:03:57,149 --> 00:04:06,419 and I'm already on top of them, you're you're cheating yourself the opportunity to get used to doing it as a daily routine. It's much like a form of meditation
22 00:04:06,419 --> 00:04:14,609 to allows you to get closer to the market when you create your own chart. I don't look at it as a time saving means by just taking my charts. You want to go
23 00:04:14,609 --> 00:04:25,289 in and try to set your charts up like mine. It teaches you how many candlesticks do I keep on my chart that way helps you repeat that and get familiar with
24 00:04:25,289 --> 00:04:37,349 dealing with the market comes all the way back down to the low end of that daily inefficiency efficiency on the NASDAQ whereas we went outside of that range on
25 00:04:37,349 --> 00:04:54,149 the ES hourly chart. You can see we have a vise on the quarterly poll here. Daily inefficiency again. Look how we were respecting it. Here are the bodies
26 00:04:54,149 --> 00:05:04,379 that is beautiful. Then runs down take the sell side here with a lower low Then rallying up to the high of the daily Solsona balanced by sound efficiency,
27 00:05:05,339 --> 00:05:16,319 specifically aiming into that bearish order block. On the NASDAQ on the right hand side, we got real close to taking its respective buy side, much like we
28 00:05:16,319 --> 00:05:26,729 were just mentioning over here. s&p is a little bit further away. NASDAQ, I believe will probably draw up into that in either tonight or tomorrow morning
29 00:05:26,729 --> 00:05:41,039 session. And how we trade there is, it was crucial in my eyes. Notice that we have the higher low formed on this respective lows here. Can you see that? So if
30 00:05:41,039 --> 00:05:51,149 I'm not mistaken, I believe it's 2am to 11am. And again, 2am, to 11am, respectively, don't take my word for it, look at it on your chart, annotate it
31 00:05:51,149 --> 00:06:02,549 as such. We also have a bush breaker, which is the up close candle right before the rotation lower. So we have a low lower low, we trade higher, we cut through
32 00:06:02,549 --> 00:06:10,679 all of this stuff in here, because we're not supply and demand cut all the way through. You see, we traded right down into it there beautifully at time that
33 00:06:10,679 --> 00:06:22,349 s&p was there. And we Wikked outside of that daily cell sort of bounced by China efficiency, that shaded area in pink, and then ran all the way back up to
34 00:06:22,349 --> 00:06:37,379 aggressively take out the buy side. This buy side and got real close to taking this one here. Same thing over here. Low high, lower low a close candle draw
35 00:06:37,379 --> 00:06:49,589 that through all this mess, gives you an x ray view on pricing, you see the sensitivity right there. 15 minute timeframe. Again, you can see the s&p
36 00:06:49,589 --> 00:07:02,759 divergence here. Versus the NASDAQ is higher low. And I elected to trade the NASDAQ today. And the reason why is because it was respecting its daily
37 00:07:02,759 --> 00:07:13,499 inefficiency. So it went down respected this rally up. The body stay inside the inefficiency that went outside of it. And we broke down and you'll see there's a
38 00:07:13,499 --> 00:07:21,689 breaker in here we'll get to lower timeframes. And a sell side was obvious as a run there then went to the bullish breaker has just mentioned and then off the
39 00:07:21,689 --> 00:07:36,389 races with it to the upside. s&p had a little bit weaker market structure wasn't as clear. And it wasn't in as much as a premium as the NASDAQ reach. So we had
40 00:07:36,389 --> 00:07:46,019 the high of that deal inefficiency reached on NASDAQ, but we did not see it here. All the while it did go to consequent courtyard, which is midpoint of this
41 00:07:46,019 --> 00:07:55,289 shaded area, which is anchored from the daily chart. If you're getting lost in the transitions from one timeframe to the next, the wonderful thing about
42 00:07:55,289 --> 00:08:02,429 YouTube is you could just rewind the video or replay it. And you'll see how all these levels are simply been transposed from the daily chart down to the lower
43 00:08:02,429 --> 00:08:13,949 timeframe. But we're seeing that respect. Look at the bodies of Costco encouragement, which is this midpoint of the shaded area here in pink. Now which
44 00:08:13,949 --> 00:08:24,929 one went higher inside of their respective daily cell center balanced by so efficient? Which is that pink box here? Did SMP go to the high end of its range?
45 00:08:26,519 --> 00:08:39,179 No, the NASDAQ did. So that's a better short. It went lower attack the sell side. And there it is, I did two trades that you'll see their anchor on. The
46 00:08:39,179 --> 00:08:54,359 analysis will show on the five minute chart. Alright, if I made sure here on the s&p, you can see just really was not as organized in terms of its market
47 00:08:54,359 --> 00:09:04,799 structure. We just weren't able to see the things that I would like to see what you compare and contrast over here. So we went to the high end of the daily
48 00:09:04,799 --> 00:09:12,899 inefficiency, the cells out of bounds box on an efficiency. Look at the bodies respecting it. That's like that's perfect. And that's what I'm looking for.
49 00:09:12,899 --> 00:09:23,939 Those are the signatures that helped me decide which forex pair like if it's closely correlated. markets like the POUND DOLLAR, versus the euro dollar, or
50 00:09:23,939 --> 00:09:33,299 Aussie Dollar versus New Zealand dollar. If I'm looking at them in the same capacity I'm doing here. I'm looking for the ones that are showing the respect
51 00:09:33,329 --> 00:09:42,299 of the signatures in price action. I'd like to say this is the better short because it's higher in terms of its daily inefficiency, versus the midpoint
52 00:09:42,299 --> 00:09:52,979 here. Both are gonna sell off likely, yes. But I want to be in the one that has the higher premium at the time. Even though the s&p makes a lower low and it has
53 00:09:52,979 --> 00:10:03,179 the, the lower low for the s&p. I don't care about that. I'm aiming for the sell side here. And it goes rate there and look at the bodies. Again, which ones
54 00:10:03,179 --> 00:10:12,989 showing you the respect the inefficiency, extreme high as that taking the short term low here
55 00:10:15,389 --> 00:10:25,739 sweeps it twice. On this one here I took the sell side exit went lower, but look at the body's stopping dead in its tracks on that low wick through hits the
56 00:10:25,739 --> 00:10:33,809 bullish breaker and then rallies, I was asleep during all this, I wasn't able to really participate if I would have been I would have been all over it right
57 00:10:33,839 --> 00:10:46,829 there. And then once you start to trade lower in here, I used that bearish order block there. And it drops down into that level right there that gave me my
58 00:10:47,549 --> 00:10:59,699 second exit or short. Mark turns. If you look at this low here, which is inside this boss Annabelle sauce on efficiency, it's an institutional Oracle entry
59 00:10:59,699 --> 00:11:11,579 drill. Extend this range is breaker range extended over and you'll see that it's hitting the mean threshold of this down close candle from high to low midpoint
60 00:11:11,939 --> 00:11:22,559 is mean threshold. It's not consequent encroachment, because it's not a wick, or it's not a gap. This is mean threshold, but it's acting as an inversion level.
61 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:32,309 So it's creating a level that would act as we're was over here. During the sell side of the curve, it's bearish. But it's a bearish breakout, it's becoming an
62 00:11:32,309 --> 00:11:45,659 inversion level where midpoint of that starts to rally. All the consolidation here finally accelerates takes out the high here. And then as you can see, it
63 00:11:45,659 --> 00:11:59,099 just moves in is a nice silver bullet here for two o'clock. The stop would be below that candle there. And rallies up just fall short of the high which I'm
64 00:11:59,099 --> 00:12:09,359 gonna go back up one timeframe or actually two timeframe sorry. This highs what's being highlighted
65 00:12:16,770 --> 00:12:26,070 with this line here, okay, so I've got real close to that. And we move back down into these inefficiencies. And we'll see if we want to get up there tonight in
66 00:12:26,070 --> 00:12:41,970 London oriented tomorrow morning session. If we get back below the consequent portrait of the last x dealing in inefficiency here. We will resume being
67 00:12:41,970 --> 00:12:56,670 bearish. Right now. It's consolidation to modestly bullish on a intraday basis. But I'm waiting for the evidence that we're going to see a longer term short on
68 00:12:56,670 --> 00:13:05,700 the daily chart. So those types of trades or swing trading models did take a little bit of time to develop. And you can have a series of up close candles
69 00:13:07,140 --> 00:13:21,330 formed before the actual setup forms for a longer term, macro short. And finally, getting to the one minute chart. Here we have a high, low higher high,
70 00:13:22,110 --> 00:13:29,070 the down close candle here that's shaded, that's a bearish breaker, you can see we trade into that here, we trade outside of that range and break back up into
71 00:13:29,070 --> 00:13:41,280 it and trading right into this lower portion of this range. So what's the high in the low that damn close candle, send that through that you're bearish
72 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:52,260 breaker. Then we have relative equal highs that that gets taken out in the afternoon and drops now, I didn't see anything in the s&p this morning that I
73 00:13:52,260 --> 00:14:05,850 want to participate in. Now look at the NASDAQ High, Low higher high. We have a inefficiency here projected on the other side of the curve means we're running
74 00:14:05,850 --> 00:14:15,450 up as a Judas sells off. So now we're on the sell side of the curve. Over here we have an inefficiency projected to the other side. It's gonna be an inversion
75 00:14:15,450 --> 00:14:26,310 fair value got it, it wouldn't have traded to the high end this daily sell zone bounced by 10 efficiency, the rectangle that's shaded red. We're at the high end
76 00:14:26,310 --> 00:14:38,760 of it right here if it hadn't done that yet, okay, and say from the high of the shaded area to the low if it was like this high but only when its highs here and
77 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:47,010 then dropped down into something like this. I would have used that inefficiency to go along. Then reach for the high in that daily inefficiency like it did
78 00:14:47,010 --> 00:14:58,500 here. But because it went to it. This over here now becomes a potential inversion fair Vega. My trades outside of backup in look at the body's real
79 00:14:58,500 --> 00:15:08,670 close consequent course. choses half of this inefficiency. We definitely hit it their bodies respecting it as well and the accelerates down to the sell side and
80 00:15:08,670 --> 00:15:21,150 into this inefficiency. So that was the first trade based on the framework that's here. And we had a inefficiency there. You beautiful run up in this is a
81 00:15:21,150 --> 00:15:32,100 nice silver bullet short, again attacking the sell side here in the sell side here, the lines here and in the bullish breakout level down here. So it digs
82 00:15:32,100 --> 00:15:46,680 into it. That's where I got my second trades exit it and I was away from the charts here, and then ultimately went higher. So I only did a little bit of work
83 00:15:46,830 --> 00:15:56,340 today for the NASDAQ. I didn't touch the s&p, and it was you know, at $2,600 on to the Live account. showed that on Twitter. You're welcome. Take a look at
84 00:15:56,340 --> 00:16:07,110 that. But I'm going to get some rest. And I know I'm under weather because I'm wanting sleep and I don't usually want a lot of sleep not wanting a lot of sleep
85 00:16:07,110 --> 00:16:11,670 all day today. So let me get back to it. And the total tomorrow. Be safe.