ICT YT - 2023-08-20 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Weekend Commentary August 19 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-08-23 11:15
Outline
00:14 - Daily chart of the dollar index.
- Daily chart is where most of the analysis is done, but a bias is determined from the weekly chart.
- Dollar index, short term high and short-term high.
- One of the exciting times in trading is the fall months, where the market is looking up for the week.
- The daily chart is a balance of moving back and forth, and there is a small little inefficiency rate there.
04:41 - Key levels for the dollar index.
- There is impulsiveness, so we might go a little bit higher, take out the short-term high here, or if we trade lower, there is a small little inefficiency.
- Dollar index.
- How they close on Monday will give more insights about where they are going to reach for on the daily chart 15 timeframe.
- How they will close on monday.
08:47 - Bullish or bearish on the Eurodollar.
- The euro dollar is consolidating in the back and forth for the month of August, and it looks like this inefficiency is a classic scenario for August, where it's a lot of give and take and you don't get really nice clean runs.
- The weekly chart is in blue, and is not clear.
- Building by side on the 15 minute timeframe relative equalize, and how it could wipe it out and aggressively sell off.
- S and P futures is a weekly chart, and what to expect next if it were right now trading live, trading live.
14:31 - Daily chart of the market.
- We have the daily chart and a version of the weekly chart.
- The market will generally retrace 20-30% of its weekly range on Thursday into friday or Friday.
- Chart inversion, fair value gap, small inefficiency, and breaking down small inefficiencies on an hourly chart.
- Friday was a difficult day to teach and point out in advance.
18:42 - Down close candle support.
- Friday's low of the week is hard to expect with a big range down movement in the week and a shift in market structure.
- Weekly chart bearish order block rallies up trades off of a breaker, but it's anchored to this inefficiency.
- The high to the low of the week will see 20% and 30% of that range retraces, and the details of why that is in his book.
- The long-term intermediate term, intermediate-term, quarterly shift objective for the next two to three months.
23:46 - Don't complain on twitter.
- If a trader is not listening, it's normal, but it's not a good sign, and it's a sign that they're not listening.
- The high of the candle sets the tone for the low of the bearish breaker, and the weekly chart is a good example.
- The cycle of failed ict students. They do the same thing all the time. They try to trade with a real money account or try to get a funded account in August.
- The summer month of August can be very choppy back and forth types of action.
28:38 - The inefficiency of the market.
- Bisetta balance and inefficiency are the only inefficiency that exists on the hourly chart. The inefficiency on an hourly chart occurred on June 8.
- The chart needs to stay completely open from this low to about half of the range of that shaded area in orange.
- Relatively equal highs by side. Friday was very choppy. It was very hard to give a sit down and point things out to you on Twitter.
- The lecture will be up by 6pm local time tomorrow, or if not, it will be on before bed.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:14,340 --> 00:00:25,890 | ICT: do a short little market review here I promise Smokey Bear too long daily chart is where we usually do most of our analysis. But we always tried to have a |
| 2 | 00:00:25,890 --> 00:00:35,520 | bias determined from the weekly chart. So on the weekly chart, the last time we spoke about Dollar Index, I told you, we would be looking for a price to want to |
| 3 | 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:44,910 | draw above this short term high for the buy side that's resting above there. I'm not convinced yet that it's going to continue up to take out this high. And |
| 4 | 00:00:45,390 --> 00:00:55,770 | there isn't really any inefficiency in here until we get to this level right there. And for me to expect it to go down to that level, doesn't, it doesn't |
| 5 | 00:00:55,770 --> 00:01:07,590 | feel right to do that, and be bullish. Okay. So if it goes down here, I think it would go through it, and then resume going lower. So what I'm stating is I'm |
| 6 | 00:01:07,590 --> 00:01:22,350 | neutral. I don't always have something that's going to be from a higher timeframe perspective, all that. Well, trustworthy, not in the sense that I can |
| 7 | 00:01:22,650 --> 00:01:30,060 | come out and say, with a great deal conviction, I believe it's going to go here next. Sometimes I have to wait. Sometimes I have to wait for Monday's trading. |
| 8 | 00:01:30,060 --> 00:01:40,350 | Sometimes I have to wait for maybe the middle of the week. Before I can get the information or may not even have it at all this week. And it forces me to do |
| 9 | 00:01:40,350 --> 00:01:50,250 | just small, little intraday scalping, which is fine. But when I'm doing commentary, I really like to do the commentaries, when I can point to where I |
| 10 | 00:01:50,250 --> 00:01:59,940 | believe it's going to go and we watch all pan out over the course of the coming weeks or days. Right now is one of those periods where I simply don't know, it |
| 11 | 00:01:59,940 --> 00:02:12,060 | can do nothing, it could just go sideways here. And it's the month of August. We're trading in the last two weeks of August. But we're entering in a few short |
| 12 | 00:02:12,060 --> 00:02:22,950 | weeks. Some of the exciting times in trading, which is the fall months, so September, October, November, and into the close the year in December, I think |
| 13 | 00:02:22,950 --> 00:02:35,760 | we're gonna see a lot of interesting price runs. But we have to weather this last month of summer. And August, traditionally, is a month that in the early |
| 14 | 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:47,940 | parts of my career, I hurt myself a lot financially. So I've developed a skill set and comfort with dialing back the amount of action that I take during this |
| 15 | 00:02:47,940 --> 00:02:59,640 | month. So let's go into the daily chart here. daily chart you can see had a lot of moving back here. This is a balanced price range, we've moved back and forth |
| 16 | 00:02:59,640 --> 00:03:11,340 | in here. And there's a small little inefficiency rate there. So if in fact, we do reject this level, and I don't know if we're going to I never really know how |
| 17 | 00:03:11,340 --> 00:03:18,690 | we're going to open on Sunday. That's one of the weaknesses I have in my abilities to reprice. I have to submit myself to that, because that uncertainty. |
| 18 | 00:03:21,660 --> 00:03:30,810 | I don't want to look unlearned, because I'm trying to predict something that no one's going to know. No one knows where we're going to open up on any market on |
| 19 | 00:03:30,870 --> 00:03:42,900 | a Sunday. No one does not one person not going to know. And I have protocols and things I'd like to see sometimes if I'm really, really bullish. I'd like to see |
| 20 | 00:03:42,900 --> 00:03:57,780 | a gap open higher on Sunday, and then trade down to fill in that gap. And then resume if I'm bearish. And we're trading near a key level whereby would be I |
| 21 | 00:03:57,780 --> 00:04:09,390 | would love to see a level gap open higher in that sense, fill the gap, then try to rally again, make a slightly higher high and then completely collapse. So |
| 22 | 00:04:09,540 --> 00:04:17,400 | those types of scenarios or I have procedures and things I like to see doesn't mean they're always going to manifest themselves on Sundays opening. But apart |
| 23 | 00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:29,700 | from that, I try not to demand of myself any measure of precision for a Sunday opening. I don't know. No one's going to know. So there's only a few hours in |
| 24 | 00:04:29,700 --> 00:04:38,130 | Sunday's trading. And really if you are trying to do whatever you have to do to find a winning trade, just because the market just started looking up for the |
| 25 | 00:04:38,130 --> 00:04:50,730 | week to me at two screens gambler. Okay, so and there were impulsiveness. So we might go a little bit higher take out this short term high here. If we trade |
| 26 | 00:04:50,730 --> 00:05:01,890 | lower, we have a small little inefficiency right there. So because it could go to either one of them, either one of them can be the draw on On this week's |
| 27 | 00:05:01,980 --> 00:05:15,600 | Dollar Index, because it's 5050, I had to sit and wait and watch what we do on Monday. But either this for discount, or this high here for premium. Those are |
| 28 | 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:27,390 | my two key levels for Dollar Index. hourly chart on Dollar Index, you can see we had by side here, right through it. Discount array is in the form of this very |
| 29 | 00:05:27,390 --> 00:05:35,760 | get bought out of balance cells on an efficiency trade down into it here and we have a small little volume of bounce, which it traded into there. So even though |
| 30 | 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:44,520 | we went outside of this inefficiency the body stayed in. And while you're watching price action you're looking to see does it just reach into the volume |
| 31 | 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:54,540 | of balance and pull away from it? Does it reach down into the order block here and then pull away from it. All those things are true here, going into Thursday |
| 32 | 00:05:54,540 --> 00:06:07,350 | and Friday's trading market rallies up take the buy sign out here to create a sell center balance bus on efficiency sebi. We trade up into it a lot of |
| 33 | 00:06:07,350 --> 00:06:23,670 | portions of the day on Friday. And this overall has no real definitive Well, clear direction, which one's going to run for. It could just chop around between |
| 34 | 00:06:23,670 --> 00:06:36,150 | this high and this low. Again, this high. This low it can range in there throughout the course of Monday's trading. What we do and how we close on |
| 35 | 00:06:36,150 --> 00:06:47,730 | Monday, will give me hopefully more insights about where we're going to reach for on that daily chart 15 timeframe, okay, we see a breaker here after taking |
| 36 | 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:58,320 | fireside trading up into that there so we have a small little small, little 15 minute likelihood that we can take that relatively close here, or sellside would |
| 37 | 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:16,350 | reside and then tap on one time that old hourly inefficiency again that would be this one over here Okay, so we're gonna go back so we could drop here take that |
| 38 | 00:07:16,350 --> 00:07:26,850 | out retouch this inefficiency from an hourly chart and then if it wants to rally I'd like to see it trade above that hourly inefficiency and treat it as an |
| 39 | 00:07:26,850 --> 00:07:41,490 | inversion periodic get find some support there and then rally aggressively through this high and reach for that higher timeframe weekly swing high your |
| 40 | 00:07:41,490 --> 00:07:53,010 | dollar weekly chart okay volume imbalance like how you treated since mentioning that you know for months we were looking for to trade up into that level we did |
| 41 | 00:07:53,430 --> 00:08:03,870 | you hit it broke lower sell sell bounced by time efficiency, institutional order flow entry Jira, which is a partial entry but less than half of the inefficiency |
| 42 | 00:08:03,870 --> 00:08:10,530 | or consequent encroachment that is institutional or for industrial. I know some of you are wondering like, how do you know when it's going to use and I'll have |
| 43 | 00:08:10,530 --> 00:08:17,820 | rules for that in my book. It's just too good to put in YouTube because there's so many people out there. Just go on Amazon do a search on Smart Money concepts |
| 44 | 00:08:17,850 --> 00:08:26,580 | ICT trading ICT concepts. There's dozens of books already that people have paired, what I've said impartial, but they're not complete teachings. They're |
| 45 | 00:08:26,580 --> 00:08:36,150 | only introductions. So yeah, that's the whole reason why I'm putting the books out because I want to be able to be the definitive source because these are all |
| 46 | 00:08:36,150 --> 00:08:46,020 | my creations. And I want to make sure that they're taught correctly. And once they come from my hand, so yours, you'll know what you're supposed to be doing |
| 47 | 00:08:46,020 --> 00:08:56,880 | with them. And you'll see just how foolish these individuals have been trying to rush to get it in print before ideal. But we traded up into that cell phone |
| 48 | 00:08:56,880 --> 00:09:07,980 | unbalanced button and efficiency, institutional or for entry drill there and then we break aggressively lower. And we're treating just the head or above this |
| 49 | 00:09:07,980 --> 00:09:20,040 | posture analysis on efficiency, relatively close your cell side there. So I think it warrants at least for the next two weeks in August, we'll likely draw |
| 50 | 00:09:20,070 --> 00:09:28,530 | into the sell side and then dig into this area here. What will become interesting is if we break lower and find strength and dollar and then treat |
| 51 | 00:09:28,530 --> 00:09:37,830 | this pattern of outside efficiency in the form of an inversion fear of a gap at a later time and then aggressively trade for here in here going into the fall |
| 52 | 00:09:37,830 --> 00:09:50,190 | months. That's something that I'm watching because this looks very troubling for the bowls. And want to see what we get over the course of the next few weeks and |
| 53 | 00:09:50,190 --> 00:10:05,250 | months for Euro dollar but I'm not bullish on it. Euro dollar daily chart as you can see it traded up into that Weekly servi in and now we have a daily by |
| 54 | 00:10:05,250 --> 00:10:09,510 | Sanibel sauce on an efficiency, retrieve up into that inversion fair value gap, |
| 55 | 00:10:11,159 --> 00:10:22,199 | which this is what it's becoming here treats it as resistance. And now we're just the head didn't quite get into the inefficiency from the weekly chart that |
| 56 | 00:10:22,199 --> 00:10:31,019 | we're seeing that we're very close to it. This right here, all this movement like this, this is what I'm referring to where it that's a classic scenario for |
| 57 | 00:10:31,019 --> 00:10:41,699 | the month of August, where it's just a lot of give and take. And you don't get these really nice clean price runs where it just goes and goes and goes. And you |
| 58 | 00:10:41,699 --> 00:10:49,739 | have to sit through a lot of back and forth price action, it's real hard to hold on to an intraday trade. Unless you're absolutely perfectly, you know, entered. |
| 59 | 00:10:50,969 --> 00:10:59,399 | trailing stop losses are very tricky. It's basically an over complication of something that is easily avoided by simply not trying to trade or not trade very |
| 60 | 00:10:59,399 --> 00:11:07,019 | aggressively in the month of August. So it got to my head, I think we're going to read a lot of these relatively colos and dig into this imbalance here in the |
| 61 | 00:11:07,019 --> 00:11:21,989 | blue. And how we trade after that, you know, remains to be seen. Out hourly chart, much like I've been mentioning, it's not real clear. Just a lot of back |
| 62 | 00:11:21,989 --> 00:11:30,869 | and forth consolidation. It looks like this inefficiency here, we traded into that we broke lower to the sell side fell short of reaching into the |
| 63 | 00:11:30,869 --> 00:11:38,729 | inefficiency on the weekly chart, which is in blue, traded back up. And then we're consolidating. So it's building by side in here, you can see that by side |
| 64 | 00:11:38,729 --> 00:11:48,869 | here on the 15 minute timeframe relative equalize. It looks like it would, in my mind, if it could go up there, hit that, wipe it out and then aggressively sell |
| 65 | 00:11:48,869 --> 00:11:57,359 | off. And that will be a scenario I'd like to see. If we get below this area here, I don't have it shaded on my chart. But here, have the annotate on your |
| 66 | 00:11:57,359 --> 00:12:08,249 | chart. So we break lower. If that acts as resistance, we'll call it the 1.0865 level. It needs to trade through it and come back up into it. As long as it |
| 67 | 00:12:08,249 --> 00:12:18,119 | doesn't go back above this area here with the candlestick bodies on a 15 minute timeframe. At that time, if we trade below it and touch it again as resistance, |
| 68 | 00:12:18,209 --> 00:12:28,559 | it should not trade back above it here. If it's bearish. If it does go back above it, once gone below it, then it may act as your traditional fare that you |
| 69 | 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:37,619 | get, which is what we expect here in terms of bullishness right now, and you can see both by side is engineered and sell sides being engineered as well. So if |
| 70 | 00:12:37,619 --> 00:12:45,389 | you were looking at a chart right now, and the market was live price was moving around live right now, would you feel more comfortable being long or being |
| 71 | 00:12:45,389 --> 00:12:54,269 | short? Right now, I would favor of run to the buy side but not because I want to see it go there break out and continue. I would like to see it go up there and |
| 72 | 00:12:54,269 --> 00:13:03,869 | reject, come back down, take this area out here, treat it as resistance and then run for this sell side and continue going lower to higher dollar. That's me |
| 73 | 00:13:03,899 --> 00:13:13,769 | sharing like I do all the time, even though I don't have a hard bias yet. gun to my head. This is how I teach my students. If I were to be asked at a time, like |
| 74 | 00:13:13,769 --> 00:13:24,209 | we're doing right here before the market opens up, it's Saturday still. What would it be like for me to try to communicate to you? My expectations is if it |
| 75 | 00:13:24,209 --> 00:13:34,469 | were right now trading live, what would I expect next? reminding you that we are not trading live, we have not had a opening to the new trading weekend. It's |
| 76 | 00:13:34,469 --> 00:13:45,689 | Saturday. So the markets are not active. They're not moving. Okay, they're not open. But I try to show you at least no gun to my head. And then whether I'm |
| 77 | 00:13:45,689 --> 00:13:55,859 | right or wrong is irrelevant. But I try to always at least give you my views every single time I'm sitting down with you. s&p futures is our September |
| 78 | 00:13:55,859 --> 00:14:05,159 | contract, this is a weekly chart. Okay, we have an emerging fair value gap trade up into here, this little tiny fair value gap. I like this one, I think that |
| 79 | 00:14:05,159 --> 00:14:15,989 | will likely still try to trade into that eventually. And over the fall. You we may be going into a reason to get down into this level here. See anything that |
| 80 | 00:14:16,259 --> 00:14:26,879 | needs to have us go back above this high here. So between this high and until we get down to here, I think it's better for me to be focusing on shorts. There's |
| 81 | 00:14:26,879 --> 00:14:36,779 | our center better for me. Not that you should. There's levels emmalin plus now we have the daily chart here. We have a version of your vague that we talked |
| 82 | 00:14:36,779 --> 00:14:46,319 | about this, and we were talking about him last week. So for Wednesday's commentary I mentioned what we're looking for is we want to see the market trade |
| 83 | 00:14:46,349 --> 00:14:57,989 | up initially created us swing and sell off and we got that I wasn't able to do a Thursday or Friday market review but I was commenting on Twitter and obviously |
| 84 | 00:14:57,989 --> 00:15:08,939 | did some executions and such which we'll do a teaching on. I'll sit down and go over what I was doing in my live trades on Friday. So you can see that and what |
| 85 | 00:15:08,939 --> 00:15:17,339 | I was doing was my thought process of time was sitting with my son trying to teach him how to correct things if you're offside, and with signs indicate that |
| 86 | 00:15:17,339 --> 00:15:25,199 | you're offside. You'd be more insightful when we do that. But now, just know that we were looking for lower prices. Go back and look at the reviews. Go look |
| 87 | 00:15:25,199 --> 00:15:36,449 | at the tweets. None of us were focusing on moves higher in s&p, or NASDAQ. sellside was here, we dug down into that. And the next one was here. Here is |
| 88 | 00:15:36,449 --> 00:15:47,519 | that inefficiency on the weekly chart, which is fell short of reaching that bear. And then we had a nice retracement off the low formed on Friday, which is |
| 89 | 00:15:47,519 --> 00:16:00,629 | TGIF. Thank God, it's Friday, which is my concept where the market will generally retrace 20 to 30% of the weekly range on Thursday into Friday or |
| 90 | 00:16:00,629 --> 00:16:11,339 | Friday. If it makes a lower low on Friday, then it's later in the day on Friday that it'll happen generally around when London close occurs. So basically 10 to |
| 91 | 00:16:11,339 --> 00:16:23,909 | noon, it can start there. If it's consolidating, during that time period, then it's the pm session. So a TGIF is really just a expectation on how we retrace |
| 92 | 00:16:23,939 --> 00:16:36,659 | off of a down week. And how far from the low, the lowest low up to that point? How far can it retrace back up? It's 20 to 30%. Alright, so let's go over into |
| 93 | 00:16:36,689 --> 00:16:49,589 | the hourly chart. Alright, so here's our chart. inversion, fair value gap. Small inefficiency we talked about as well. Broke lower consolidation on here. We |
| 94 | 00:16:49,589 --> 00:16:59,999 | break down small little inefficiency there. So I'll try to balance my time efficiently hits their breaks lower. This inefficiency here. Betrayed up into it |
| 95 | 00:17:01,139 --> 00:17:12,719 | aggressively, like break lower. Now we have this gap here. We just touched that on Friday. gun to my head. Okay, I believe we're not done going lower? Do we go |
| 96 | 00:17:12,719 --> 00:17:22,979 | up into this a little bit deeper before going lower? Maybe? Does it need to know, I'd like to see gap open, lower, make an attempt to fill the gap. Don't |
| 97 | 00:17:22,979 --> 00:17:37,889 | feel entirely aggressively trade lower, below this low and then dig in towards that 4300 4310? s&p 50 minute timeframe. Okay, here's that inefficiency with |
| 98 | 00:17:37,889 --> 00:17:46,589 | this on an hourly chart. And now we have a small inefficiency there, where you can see price did run for the buy side, reached up into it there. And now we're |
| 99 | 00:17:46,589 --> 00:18:00,539 | in sloggy. Friday was actually a very, very difficult day for me to teach. And point out things in advance. I had to really focus to do the execution of it on |
| 100 | 00:18:00,539 --> 00:18:11,399 | Friday. And I'll cover that in the teaching that we'll do tomorrow on Sunday. So it just basically knew why I did what I did, why I place my stock where I placed |
| 101 | 00:18:11,399 --> 00:18:21,419 | it, and some of the clues that you can see in price action to help me and help me teach my students how to determine when you're offside. In a trade that means |
| 102 | 00:18:21,419 --> 00:18:29,819 | when you get a trade on, and it's telling you you're probably not going to be profitable in that trade. How do you how do you see that? What do you pick up |
| 103 | 00:18:29,819 --> 00:18:44,669 | on? And what are you supposed to be doing when when it when you encounter that financial s&p inefficiency here after taking the sell side. And then these |
| 104 | 00:18:44,669 --> 00:18:56,159 | relatively equal lows here. I'm sure you probably were expecting them to be swiped on Friday, it's real hard to expect that when we have a big range down |
| 105 | 00:18:56,849 --> 00:19:10,619 | movement in the week, and it made the low of the week so far on Friday. And then we have a shift to market structure here after taking sell side rallies up and |
| 106 | 00:19:10,619 --> 00:19:20,219 | back down in order block here rallies. And then you start seeing what down close candle supporting price it does here and it's got a fair value gap. So that's a |
| 107 | 00:19:20,219 --> 00:19:29,309 | high probability bullish order block. rallies up trades off of a breaker. We have a bullish breaker here, |
| 108 | 00:19:30,540 --> 00:19:39,960 | hits here and here, but it's anchored to this inefficiency. We're not supplying demand. We're cutting through all this stuff to get to the narrative. This right |
| 109 | 00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:49,710 | here. Why is this fear of a guy being selected? This is an old low where sell side resided. So every time we have a shift in market structure that occurs back |
| 110 | 00:19:49,710 --> 00:19:57,720 | above an old area where we would expect sellside to exist and that inefficiencies laid right over top of that. When price trades back above it is |
| 111 | 00:19:57,720 --> 00:20:06,480 | going to act as what an inversion of erotica is. And you couple that with TGIF which is Thank God it's Friday it's usually gonna be a 20 30% retracement on the |
| 112 | 00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:13,320 | weekly range. And we've been going lower all week we've been calling it lower all week it's been delivering like gangbusters. And you got and you've been |
| 113 | 00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:24,600 | watching the live account, building and building and building so we rallied up the bodies look at the bodies here. It's respecting what this gap, the wicks the |
| 114 | 00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:33,690 | what just outside the line that's defined by the logo here. This is normal I teach this is like a mohawk. Okay, a little tiny little deviation outside of |
| 115 | 00:20:33,690 --> 00:20:44,730 | what would be expected is perfect. But this is perfectly acceptable. This is perfectly acceptable, we watch the candles in where their bodies reside. That's |
| 116 | 00:20:44,790 --> 00:20:54,060 | that's the narrative that tells you the real storyline and what price is likely to continuously do. market rallies again, find some support down close candles, |
| 117 | 00:20:54,510 --> 00:21:09,600 | or block rallies takes the buy side over here later in the day and digs up into that inefficiency as well. As that weekly chart, bearish order block freaker and |
| 118 | 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:17,550 | I talked about this at the time, go back and look at the old reviews you should have actually this in your charts. But this down close candle here is the |
| 119 | 00:21:17,550 --> 00:21:30,060 | bearish breaker Mark trades all we have small little Mohawk outside the range that is defined by that candles high. And then we had what the market deliver it |
| 120 | 00:21:30,060 --> 00:21:41,370 | down close weekly candle a lot of movement to the downside. So if you measure this high to the low of the week, you're gonna see 20 and 30% of that range, it |
| 121 | 00:21:41,370 --> 00:21:52,230 | retraces. And I'll teach more about the details as to why that is in my book. If we continue lower, and I think we're probably going to do that going into the |
| 122 | 00:21:52,230 --> 00:22:03,330 | fall months, this is where we're focuses can enter the old weekly volume imbalances that we're looking for digging into higher highs for NASDAQ and s&p |
| 123 | 00:22:03,330 --> 00:22:11,280 | for months all through the summer and late spring, we're looking for that higher price. Now we have that same thing happening. But just in reverse, we're looking |
| 124 | 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:20,910 | for to dig down into this deep discount, bisetta balance all sudden efficiency has shifted here. So this is my long term, intermediate term, my quarterly |
| 125 | 00:22:20,910 --> 00:22:30,510 | shift, objective. In other words, the next two to three months, where I think price is going to reach for its here. So everything is going to be meaning on |
| 126 | 00:22:30,540 --> 00:22:41,460 | the likelihood of that we're going to try to trade down into this level here in the coming weeks and months. Build chart NASDAQ. Here's that weekly, bearish |
| 127 | 00:22:41,460 --> 00:22:49,440 | order block, it trades through it here, you break down here's a weekly breaker that shaded in gray. And I saw a couple of comments. And I mentioned this last |
| 128 | 00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:58,620 | time we talked on I don't know if it's a live stream or if it was a recorded version like I'm doing here. There are there are folks that are basically saying |
| 129 | 00:22:58,620 --> 00:23:08,670 | this is complicated. You know, and I'm putting these ranges on so that way you can study how from a top down analysis. Okay? What you're supposed to be |
| 130 | 00:23:08,700 --> 00:23:17,910 | noticing and seeing how price is respecting higher timeframe, PD arrays, okay, you can clearly see this is not classic Support Resistance has nothing to do |
| 131 | 00:23:17,910 --> 00:23:28,980 | with retail, in Wycoff doesn't exist in this. This is all my stuff. These are very specific elements to price delivery. They're codified concepts by me, their |
| 132 | 00:23:28,980 --> 00:23:39,030 | author, and the algorithm will follow that. When you look for these things in price action, in back testing, the only way you're gonna learn how to do this is |
| 133 | 00:23:39,030 --> 00:23:49,770 | by dressing your chart repeatedly for months. And you're going to feel like it's unproductive. That's normal. If you've rushed to try to trade with for knowing |
| 134 | 00:23:49,770 --> 00:23:59,790 | what you're doing. Don't complain to me on Twitter, because there's a person that I'm been very kind to, and trying to encourage him not to be so hard and |
| 135 | 00:23:59,790 --> 00:24:09,510 | judgmental on yourself. But that type of thing gets you muted. I don't want to see that. Because it's basically saying that you're not listening. And I'm not |
| 136 | 00:24:09,510 --> 00:24:20,100 | going to waste any more of my emotion in concern for people that are not going to listen. It's not that I'm not sympathetic because I am sympathetic, but I |
| 137 | 00:24:20,100 --> 00:24:30,540 | know that I'm dealing with someone that is incapable at the time to follow instructions. So I have to leave them in their ignorance. As much as I don't |
| 138 | 00:24:30,540 --> 00:24:38,610 | want to do that. I have to do that because I can't reach them beyond what I'm already doing. When there's other people that are listening, they're taking note |
| 139 | 00:24:38,610 --> 00:24:45,930 | that I'm telling you not to trade in the month of August and then I lost more money I can never get this. This is so complicated. Tell me look at his chart |
| 140 | 00:24:45,930 --> 00:24:55,560 | and you tell me, does this make sense to you? It makes sense to everybody that's been doing the work. For the people that have not deciphered what it is I'm |
| 141 | 00:24:55,560 --> 00:25:08,610 | showing it because they haven't done this enough. Look at the reaction here. This is the high of the candle that sets the tone for the high of the bearish |
| 142 | 00:25:08,610 --> 00:25:16,830 | breaker and we go back up to the weekly chart. This one here, okay, that candlesticks high, and that candlesticks low, that's what I'm shading here in |
| 143 | 00:25:16,830 --> 00:25:27,510 | gray. That range if we apply it to the daily chart because right now we're on the weekly chart, if we drop down to the daily chart that range across all the |
| 144 | 00:25:27,510 --> 00:25:40,020 | candlesticks that are seen by the medium of a daily chart, so every candlestick here represents one full daily range high and low. When we trade into that, once |
| 145 | 00:25:40,020 --> 00:25:51,750 | we get into it here, it's respecting the higher bid there. And then there's what trades to the low bid and outside of it, and then the next candle here, we open, |
| 146 | 00:25:51,780 --> 00:26:04,170 | we trade up into it, and then offers resistance and since price lower, you will not appreciate the benefits of seeing price like this until you put the work in |
| 147 | 00:26:04,170 --> 00:26:12,600 | interesting charts up. There's a lot of you that will talk a good game of Yeah, I back test, I do this, I do that. But in two, three weeks after you do that, |
| 148 | 00:26:12,630 --> 00:26:22,350 | you're going to be on Twitter, you're only on social media and complaining how you've messed up, or Nothing's making sense to you now. Or worse, go on YouTube, |
| 149 | 00:26:22,350 --> 00:26:31,830 | on your YouTube channel, in your bathroom, we're in the bathroom hood, which exists, complaining about how smart money concepts are aligned, and you're gonna |
| 150 | 00:26:31,830 --> 00:26:39,390 | go to trade price action, and talk about trade you really didn't take and pretend you made money. And you're going to show examples on your chart with the |
| 151 | 00:26:39,390 --> 00:26:49,080 | long and short application that trading view which is not even a trade, it's just you drawing overtop of a chart and saying you took a trade. That's the |
| 152 | 00:26:49,110 --> 00:27:00,750 | that's the cycle of the failed ICT students, they do that same thing all the time. And it's because you aren't doing this part of a here. And you're not |
| 153 | 00:27:00,750 --> 00:27:10,140 | submitting to the time that's required for you to get to your understanding and trusting what it is that you're supposed to be seeing in price action. This is |
| 154 | 00:27:10,170 --> 00:27:22,890 | not easy, folks. There's a rhyme and reason as to why price does what it does. But you can't ascertain what that is, until you submit to a lot of tedious back |
| 155 | 00:27:22,890 --> 00:27:35,340 | testing and journaling. And studying what price has done here. What does price likely have ahead in terms of the coming week? And how can I see that? And how |
| 156 | 00:27:35,340 --> 00:27:44,490 | close am I when the week ends? How close was I in terms of my expectations? See, I'm lending you my experience. But I'm also reminding you that we're in a time |
| 157 | 00:27:44,790 --> 00:27:58,020 | when the summer month of August it, it can be very choppy, back and forth types of price action. It still can be traded with someone with a lot of nimbleness |
| 158 | 00:27:58,020 --> 00:28:08,010 | and experience but you can't watch my videos, be a new student, new viewer. And think that because you watch the video, you know how to do it and go out there |
| 159 | 00:28:08,010 --> 00:28:14,400 | and try to trade with a real money account or try to get a funded account in August never tried to do that. And then finally companies right now you're |
| 160 | 00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:23,580 | holding up their crucifixes to menials ish. But as it says facts, folks, you don't want to be trying to get a fund account in the summer months, okay, you |
| 161 | 00:28:23,580 --> 00:28:30,480 | don't want to do it, you'll find it it's a lot easier when the markets a lot more fluid in spring months and in the fall. And we're gonna go into the fall. |
| 162 | 00:28:31,230 --> 00:28:37,800 | So I believe we're going to have a whole lot more favorable price action, but it's getting back to this discussion here is that we're starting to do a Twitter |
| 163 | 00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:46,530 | space. And that's not where we're at now. We have a bisetta balance, also inefficiency here, which acted as support there. Now we traded through it. So I |
| 164 | 00:28:46,530 --> 00:28:54,600 | am having this area drawn out and have your attention treating this as a potential inversion pay gap. Meaning that we can come up into that trade into |
| 165 | 00:28:54,600 --> 00:29:08,370 | it, I'd like it to stay completely open from this low here to about half of the range of that shaded area in orange to that low. So about halfway there. I like |
| 166 | 00:29:08,370 --> 00:29:17,490 | to see that portion from here to here stay open. It doesn't need to do that for to remain bearish. I just would like to see that. This needs to stay open |
| 167 | 00:29:17,490 --> 00:29:22,380 | because then I'll trust this as a breakaway gap. This, |
| 168 | 00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:31,950 | I'll treat that as a measuring gap. So from high to low. Now here I'm expecting the drawl to this could be again half of the move. So that's how I'm looking at |
| 169 | 00:29:31,950 --> 00:29:35,220 | in terms of classifying a measuring gap versus a breakaway gap |
| 170 | 00:29:41,220 --> 00:29:50,160 | for our chart now, I did not have a four hour chart on the s&p. And so we were like why did you do that? I don't want to do it. It hurts for logic. Here we |
| 171 | 00:29:50,160 --> 00:30:03,180 | have this inefficiency rate in here. We're going to show you where this is. Here's relative equal lows, and we saw price dropped down into that There, this |
| 172 | 00:30:03,660 --> 00:30:14,520 | inefficiency on an hourly chart occurred on the eighth. So June 8, this inefficiency, that's the levels I'm showing you when we show the chart again, |
| 173 | 00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:28,830 | that's this over here. Okay, so they dug down into that Friday. So we've gone below an old low, we dug down into the only inefficiency that exists on the |
| 174 | 00:30:28,830 --> 00:30:42,870 | hourly chart. And we have a little bit of inefficiency here that we dug up into. And we're going to zoom in now, on an hourly chart here, look by side out there, |
| 175 | 00:30:43,380 --> 00:30:52,350 | and we have this wick. I would like for it to trade below the consequent corrosion that wick and then treat it as resistance and sell aggressively lower |
| 176 | 00:30:52,350 --> 00:31:06,570 | and then dig into the 14,004 24 430. area. Okay, that that's what I'd like to see. I would like it to become very similar to what we're showing here. Like |
| 177 | 00:31:06,570 --> 00:31:18,930 | where we went up, broke hard came back up and in sell off, I'd like to see that type of delivery here. Like that, I would be very satisfied to see that. But if |
| 178 | 00:31:18,930 --> 00:31:30,090 | we have to go higher first, then I would not want to see it go up of this potentially, in terms of inversion period yet, which is that shaded orange area, |
| 179 | 00:31:30,450 --> 00:31:42,030 | I don't want to see a trade above that. So if it trades above that, then I'm a little leery about this being a draw on liquidity for the week. But this is why |
| 180 | 00:31:42,030 --> 00:31:52,050 | we bounced here. And I'm expecting to trade through that. Let's see lower prices going into this week in the following week as well. Fitting in timeframe, again, |
| 181 | 00:31:52,050 --> 00:32:02,310 | here. So relatively equal highs by sides taken. They're very, very choppy, difficult. Friday, it was very hard for me to give a sit down and point things |
| 182 | 00:32:02,310 --> 00:32:09,870 | out to you on Twitter, like I've done many times over this year. And last, it would have required a whole lot more understanding about price action. And I |
| 183 | 00:32:09,870 --> 00:32:19,800 | would have probably confused many of you. So I just left it alone and did my own executions and share that recording on Twitter. And then I did a silent upload |
| 184 | 00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:30,210 | prior to this video here, where you can watch me actually trading that the lecture I'm going to do tomorrow. Hope we'll have that video up by 6pm local |
| 185 | 00:32:30,210 --> 00:32:38,460 | time tomorrow. If not, it'll be on before I go to bed. But I'll walk you through what I was thinking how I was doing, what I was doing, why I was doing what I |
| 186 | 00:32:38,460 --> 00:32:51,570 | was doing. And it'll be as close as I can to be what it was I was being helpful in terms of teaching my son how to navigate, move from one bias to the next. If |
| 187 | 00:32:51,570 --> 00:33:02,790 | you get into a trade, and it's suddenly unfavorable. How do you how do you see it? How do you navigate it? What do you do the reverse everything and start |
| 188 | 00:33:02,790 --> 00:33:12,660 | working towards the other side of the pdv matrix. So that's the lecture tomorrow, but just a lot of back and forth price action in here. And we'll drop |
| 189 | 00:33:12,660 --> 00:33:22,380 | down into a five minute chart. This is pretty much the backbone of what it was I was looking at while watching the s&p yesterday. So you can see my execution I |
| 190 | 00:33:22,380 --> 00:33:32,880 | had the s&p on the left hand side. And I had to NASDAQ on the right hand side. So I was watching both markets but trading the s&p and I'll go into as to why I |
| 191 | 00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:42,660 | was trading the s&p versus the NASDAQ. That will all be part of lecture discussion tomorrow. But we had inefficiency here chip back down into it there |
| 192 | 00:33:42,660 --> 00:33:52,680 | rallied up and the inefficiency there inversion for your pay gap. We hit it there and notice the bodies of the candle respecting that and in the wick down |
| 193 | 00:33:52,680 --> 00:34:05,160 | here, and in this is a bullish breaker so we had a low high lower low we've traded above it, the body up close candle, draw that out of the body respecting |
| 194 | 00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:16,920 | it there since the higher order block hits it relatively high tears by side relative equal highs there's my side and then pass that up here is kept digging |
| 195 | 00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:27,240 | higher, higher, higher, higher, and boom delivering to teach if objectives for the weekly range 30 20% of the down close candle that was making our weekly |
| 196 | 00:34:27,240 --> 00:34:39,060 | chart candlestick for NASDAQ. It retraced up 20 30% on its range. That's what you see here. I mean, it came off the highs going into the close for Friday. |
| 197 | 00:34:44,369 --> 00:34:49,739 | Alright folks, that's it for this one. I hope you found it insightful and I'll talk to you next time. Be safe |