ICT YT - 2023-08-18 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Live Market Commentary August 18 2023
Outline
00:50 - Can you hear me?
- The speaker is looking for notification on Twitter to send him a tweet five by five to confirm he can hear and see his charts.
- The speaker has two charts.
01:57 - Daily chart of the S and P.
- This is the easiest way to do it, knock it out, so that way it probably will have problems with something, probably will make a mistake, and it will just have to be what it is.
- A daily chart of the S and P.
- I'm seeing people call things inverse, inverse, fair value gap, inversion, etc. Please don't do it incorrectly, because that's how everything causes confusion and people start making mentorships and making change of character and institutional candles, which don't exist.
- Check the sensitivity of that for today's trading.
06:37 - The inefficiency of the current market.
- The inefficiency of the inefficiency. The inefficiency may act as resistance at a later time, but it's something to have on the charts.
- The 14,003 51 and a half level.
- Striking out the four hour chart and breaking it down into lower timeframes to avoid too much time on the chart.
- The daily chart shows a willingness to react to a small gap in the value gap, which will be seen on the lower time frames.
11:34 - Inefficiencies in the market structure.
- Shift in market structure, model 2022, inefficiency on the lower timeframe. Inefficiency trades up into what you will see later on when go lower than this timeframe, an inefficiency trades lower.
- Daily chart. Hold inefficiency, two levels of inefficiency.
- It can trade to the normal support resistance level, but is more interested in this specific level here.
- The shaded area between the dashed line and this candles low is where they traded up into here, so that's where we traded up.
17:32 - Support and resistance of the inefficiency gap.
- Pay gaps have been around since the 1900s. Chris laurie is the guy that brought that to the market in 1996.
- The inefficiency on this candle on the daily chart.
- The two levels of support and resistance are the high and low levels of inefficiency, and how the algorithm will react when they overlap.
- The inefficiency of the inefficiency.
21:29 - Institutional order for entry drill.
- Trading up into this little area to not do too much in terms of upsetting when looking for.
- The shaded area here viewed on the 50 minute time frame, and the 60 minute that's this area that shaded out to stay open.
- There is a lot of fever in the market right now, so don't want to go long this morning.
- The daily chart for dixie and the dollar.
27:04 - How we could draw to this level.
- Focus on how to draw to this level, and how to see a meaningful run above this high before the dollar index on the eurodollar.
- How to use the opening candle to highlight the high and the opening price, which may be a factor for concern on the discount side.
- Forex is a gentleman's market. Daily highs and lows and opening and closing levels are always the same.
- Forex has improved since 2006, but it still has its own shenanigans.
32:13 - Advice to investors.
- Forex is not going to be a thing forever. In the next 10 years or so, crypto is not a thing. Central bank digital currencies will have a time limit on when and how to spend money.
- Bitcoin will not be here forever.
- There is no protection from a futures contract. The government put together satoshi is a myth period.
- Eventually everything is going to go to one currency, you're going to see it in your lifetime. The reality is that everything will go to the one currency.
37:29 - How to trade the bitcoin market?
- People are going to be wanting some kind of resolution or protection or an ulterior means of doing things so that it never happens again.
- GBP usd is still in it daily.
- There is a lot of sell side in the bitcoin price action. The sell side is going to be roasted, and before the elections of next year, this will be taken out there.
- There is nothing else gold and there is some of your private thoughts to pick up on.
42:45 - Watch the dollar index and sentiment.
- The dollar index and gold are inversely correlated, so as one goes up, the other goes down, you need to balance them over and over again.
- It is important to understand the day of the week phenomenon and not assume risk foolishly on Friday.
- The chances of a tgif this week, where it pulls back up into 20 or 30% of the weekly range, and from the highest high of the week to wherever the lowest low is that's formed.
- The one to be watching for s and p.
Transcription
1 | 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:59,190 | ICT: Alright, let's try this again. If you can hear me, I'm looking for notification on Twitter to send me a tweet five by five. That means you guys can |
2 | 00:00:59,190 --> 00:01:05,280 | hear me the volumes good and you can see my charts once I get confirmation I will begin. |
3 | 00:01:43,260 --> 00:01:58,080 | Okay, thank you for thank you for giving me a confirmation, you can hear me the screw here two charts and see what we can talk about this morning. Right here on |
4 | 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:07,530 | the left hand side, I promise I won't keep you for too long today, I have things that take care of I wasn't intending to be here. But we celebrated our son |
5 | 00:02:07,530 --> 00:02:15,990 | Caleb's birthday yesterday and went a little later than I wanted to my eyes got tired. So I couldn't sit down and do a a review. So this is the easiest way for |
6 | 00:02:15,990 --> 00:02:23,550 | me to do it, knock it out. So that way, it probably will have problems with something I'll make a mistake and saying something incorrectly or whatever. And |
7 | 00:02:23,580 --> 00:02:32,460 | it'll just have to be what it is. And if I catch it, while I'm doing it, I'll hopefully correct myself at the time. But usually, in recorded episodes, I can |
8 | 00:02:32,460 --> 00:02:42,480 | go in, proofread everything before it gets into your hands. And then you edit out anything that may happen in the background. I have puppies now. So you may |
9 | 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:51,750 | hear them in the background. Okay, so just be mindful that. Alright, so what the inside we have a daily chart of the s&p and we've been talking about this market |
10 | 00:02:51,750 --> 00:03:01,560 | going lower this entire week. And I've been putting the specific things throughout each review and keeping your focus on the sell side delivery. |
11 | 00:03:02,730 --> 00:03:15,210 | Yesterday, we smashed through our sell side liquidity objectives for both. And on the left hand side, at present, these are the levels I'm watching. Right now. |
12 | 00:03:16,770 --> 00:03:28,590 | We went border the low. Here, just one level we're watching for this week for s&p, we have an order block the opening price on that, draw that out in time. |
13 | 00:03:29,130 --> 00:03:37,110 | And you'll see we were only off by one tick and it was one tick above. So that's always normal delivery. I mean, if you want to see a specific level treated to |
14 | 00:03:37,110 --> 00:03:44,250 | and it's above, it'll go to it and throw it. But if it's going to be acting as resistance in other words, if we're going to sell program, we're expecting |
15 | 00:03:44,250 --> 00:03:55,200 | little prices. This would be viewed as a traditional period expect bullishness if the market was underlying ly bullish, but since we've been looking for lower |
16 | 00:03:55,200 --> 00:04:01,950 | prices, we've been looking for sell side and discount arrays throughout this week. Again, don't take my word for what I'm saying to you here. If it's his |
17 | 00:04:01,950 --> 00:04:13,350 | first time watching me go back and look at the recordings I did previous to this one for the next day's market action. These levels can act as inversion levels, |
18 | 00:04:13,410 --> 00:04:21,930 | okay? I'm seeing folks call things inverse like inverse fair value gap. It's inversion, please don't do it incorrectly, because that's how everything causes |
19 | 00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:31,380 | confusion and people start making mentorships and they call things like church and change of character and institutional candles which don't exist. So the |
20 | 00:04:31,620 --> 00:04:42,960 | opening price here, check the sensitivity of that for today's trading. This imbalance over here I highlighted that I want to watch and see. Do we have any |
21 | 00:04:42,990 --> 00:04:55,140 | willingness to get back up into that before trading down into this area over here, which is a small little inefficiency. I think that is a worthwhile |
22 | 00:04:56,100 --> 00:05:09,000 | discount rate to have on your charts. Okay, so you can look at that on The June 8, candles high and the Jun 12. Candles low. The difference in between there's |
23 | 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:19,920 | your fair Vega, it's a discount. It's below the sell side, which we've already delivered to. So I woke up. And everything had already panned out through levels |
24 | 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:28,170 | that I would have really liked to have mentioned to you beforehand. But that's okay. We've been doing it the entire week. So, family first, I got to take care |
25 | 00:05:28,170 --> 00:05:38,340 | of things, which is why I'm leaving social media. In November, I gotta get back to being a family man. So you mentioned also the s&p divergence, I want you to |
26 | 00:05:38,340 --> 00:05:46,620 | go back and look at that and study that over the weekend. How the NASDAQ was unwilling to make the higher high. And then we had a shift in market structure |
27 | 00:05:46,620 --> 00:05:59,070 | here, just like we did over here on s&p, and that set the stage for a delivery and sell program for the sell side here. And in digging through that we have all |
28 | 00:05:59,070 --> 00:06:15,210 | this price action right here on the NASDAQ, where we had the sell side here on s&p. And here, since we've pierced both of them, this is the only inefficiency |
29 | 00:06:15,210 --> 00:06:25,980 | that resides below that sell side on the daily timeframe. Here, I'm drawing your attention to this old inefficiency, because I'm not supplying demand. For the |
30 | 00:06:25,980 --> 00:06:34,530 | folks that like to say that that's nonsense, because number one, I'm going to cut through candles because I don't need anything to be classified as a fresh |
31 | 00:06:34,530 --> 00:06:43,950 | load because everything I'm looking at in price action is fresh. This Baker's got fresh bread every day. So this inefficiency, if we make it through it, I'd |
32 | 00:06:43,950 --> 00:06:51,600 | like to see it act as resistance at a later time, it may do it today, it may not do it at all, no for a few weeks. But it's something I want to have on my |
33 | 00:06:51,600 --> 00:07:00,990 | charts, because it may set the stage for a run into these relative equal lows, where there's a larger pool of liquidity. And then we have this buy side |
34 | 00:07:00,990 --> 00:07:10,500 | unbalanced sell side inefficiency here says big up close candle here. And that is inefficient. So you want to mark off here for that range between this candles |
35 | 00:07:10,500 --> 00:07:23,850 | high on May 25. This candles low on May 30. Put your Fibonacci on that. Now show you what I mean by this we don't want to sell we measure consequent encroachment |
36 | 00:07:23,850 --> 00:07:36,120 | of gaps or inefficiencies. I don't like the fact that I had that extension, let me take it off. Here's one more opportunity for y'all to see what my settings |
37 | 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:49,020 | are on my fit. I know you guys like to ASL time, I try to include it as much as I can. Alright, so the 14,003 51 and a half. I think that is a nice intermediate |
38 | 00:07:49,020 --> 00:08:00,030 | term draw on liquidity longer term that's not today's target. Okay, I want you to understand that that is where we could draw to eventually, below these equal |
39 | 00:08:00,030 --> 00:08:06,420 | lows, I think that is a favorable level to have on your charts. So I'm going to include it now since I'm talking about it. |
40 | 00:08:21,900 --> 00:08:22,500 | Snapped |
41 | 00:08:27,780 --> 00:08:38,430 | I can already hear something if you just do this ICT. It's easier and faster. I know. I'm sure you all have all kinds of tricks about how to do things more |
42 | 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:52,230 | quicker, but the thought oh man do what he has to do. Okay. It's free. So that level here, we'll look at this going forward in the future. We'll just leave it |
43 | 00:08:52,230 --> 00:09:06,540 | as that. Okay, so let's start stripping this down into lower timeframes so that we don't keep you for too long. And now I see Tico here for hours. We want to |
44 | 00:09:06,540 --> 00:09:23,430 | hang out. We want to hang out with pops. Alright, so here are those levels. Seen on the four hour chart. You can see how we inefficiency in here on left hand |
45 | 00:09:23,430 --> 00:09:36,480 | side. s&p trade up into that, going through it on Thursday. Then we broke lower and then we had a really nice expansion, the downside and then moving into |
46 | 00:09:37,140 --> 00:09:48,210 | smaller consolidation and digging into and through that sellside liquidity pool. Again, this area down here, I think that is something that should be and I'm not |
47 | 00:09:48,210 --> 00:09:56,880 | saying that shouldn't be there today. And frankly, my trading is done like I'm not touching anything the rest of the week. I'm not touching anything today. But |
48 | 00:09:56,880 --> 00:10:07,530 | I want to do a review last night but my personal don't schedule what permitted. So I'm trying to do the best I can to keep you up to date. NASDAQ on the right |
49 | 00:10:07,530 --> 00:10:08,130 | hand side |
50 | 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:27,180 | okay, and we had looks like we have a nice measured move here and you see this price swing down to the fulcrum point right there. Measurement is nice and easy. |
51 | 00:10:27,210 --> 00:10:36,120 | Let's do something like that. So standard deviation, one fulcrum point, it means from this high down to that low, if we take out that low, it can move as far as |
52 | 00:10:36,270 --> 00:10:46,290 | negative one standard deviation, we ended up trading down into the inefficiency on the daily chart, you can see we just touched it there. And it's already shown |
53 | 00:10:46,290 --> 00:10:54,600 | a willingness to react there, which is nice. We have a fair value gap this will be seen on the lower timeframes. I apologize, I started trying to throw the |
54 | 00:10:55,200 --> 00:11:06,270 | annotations on the chart. Beforehand, I was going to do it in a PDF, PDF, but a PowerPoint. It was taking me more time I was again, just do it live. Bill |
55 | 00:11:06,270 --> 00:11:21,240 | O'Reilly style. I'll do it live. So anyway, that level here, traded into that, let's go into a hourly chart and see how nice that reaction was. In a small |
56 | 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:30,960 | little gap in here, these are all things we talked about on Wednesday, this wick here have that constant encouragement, we hit that beautifully yesterday or one |
57 | 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:41,010 | sorry, on Wednesday afternoon, we broke lower. We'll see this inefficiency on the lower timeframe. We're still on an hourly chart now. trades up into what |
58 | 00:11:41,010 --> 00:11:52,230 | you'll see later on when go lower than this timeframe is an inefficiency trades lower shift in market structure. What is this? We have a gap. But what |
59 | 00:11:52,530 --> 00:12:08,040 | specifically is it it's the model 2022 shift in market structure. They have a gap in the displacement late trades up into here, sells off aggressively. Small |
60 | 00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:18,270 | consolidation and index down into the inefficiency I mentioned that was on the daily chart, roll over to s&p drop into a 60 minute chart there. I will talk |
61 | 00:12:18,270 --> 00:12:38,670 | about Euro dollar and Dollar Index once I get through the indices I'm not going to be doing what's it called? Think of like a DJ, like recommendations or |
62 | 00:12:38,790 --> 00:12:49,650 | something that effect. I'm not gonna be doing like on demand Oracle, okay, am I gonna be doing oil I'm not gonna be doing Bitcoin and XRP and NF T's and |
63 | 00:12:50,100 --> 00:12:59,130 | synthetic indices or whatever the hell you're gonna ask me to do. It's just what I want to focus on getting out of here. So we have an inefficiency here. On the |
64 | 00:12:59,130 --> 00:13:10,710 | hourly chart, you can see we traded up into that nine o'clock on Thursday, hung around in that range here in London, we tore off, fair, shorter block here, |
65 | 00:13:10,740 --> 00:13:17,970 | sells off sell side was here, dug into that, and then went down below the sell side. Again, this is seen on the daily charts |
66 | 00:13:25,500 --> 00:13:33,090 | I don't like this style of doing it like this is why I like to do things pre recorded. So we can take my time and go through. So I already feel like I'm |
67 | 00:13:33,450 --> 00:13:43,350 | breezing through this too fast. And it may not use appreciate as it normally is. But do my best to keep up with what's already happened. There's two levels here |
68 | 00:13:43,380 --> 00:13:50,850 | that's that hold inefficiency on daily chart. Normally I would have to entertain illustrate what it is just watch the beginning of the video or on the daily |
69 | 00:13:50,850 --> 00:13:58,500 | chart when s&p and you'll see that that is those specific levels as the higher the inefficiency in the low the inefficiency. And you can see how we've had |
70 | 00:13:58,530 --> 00:14:08,820 | respect to that level. Look at the bodies in the wicks and here respectively and then we smash through it here. So watch and see not only do we trade back to the |
71 | 00:14:08,820 --> 00:14:19,440 | old low, which is this red level, where sellside would have been defined by the daily chart. It can trade to that normal Support Resistance guys would say okay, |
72 | 00:14:19,470 --> 00:14:30,270 | it's traded there, it's a break and retest go lower. It could do that. But I would be more interested in this specific level here. And also more importantly, |
73 | 00:14:30,300 --> 00:14:46,560 | I would like to see between this dotted or dashed line here. I'd like to see this area here remain open okay, because that in itself would encourage me to |
74 | 00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:57,390 | anticipate lower prices throughout this trading day here Friday. And then maybe, maybe if things were to get, you know, overzealous on the downside intraday |
75 | 00:14:57,390 --> 00:15:08,100 | today, we could look for to try to trade down into the This inefficiency here trading to around 4348. And three quarters was called 4349. Very good, it makes |
76 | 00:15:08,100 --> 00:15:15,870 | it easy. But I'd like to see it stay open. Now, that's not a trade recommendation, this is something that I would like to see, when I come back to |
77 | 00:15:15,870 --> 00:15:28,620 | the charts later on this evening. I'm done being a dad mean, you know, a family man not treating. So I want to see this area here. Stay open. If we don't get |
78 | 00:15:28,620 --> 00:15:38,190 | down to this area down here today. Okay, let's play devil's advocate for a moment. If we don't trade at that level here, and this stays open today. I like |
79 | 00:15:38,190 --> 00:15:48,630 | the idea of a lower opening on Sunday, like a gap lower opening Sunday's trading, and then reaching into this area Sunday into Monday. That's kind of |
80 | 00:15:48,630 --> 00:15:57,570 | like what I'm thinking, I don't trade anything anymore. And hold into the weekend, I used to do that a lot with Forex. I don't want to do that now because |
81 | 00:15:57,570 --> 00:16:07,890 | of GAAP risk. Because all the things that's going on around the world, all it takes is somebody to push the wrong button. And then a lot of things can happen. |
82 | 00:16:08,010 --> 00:16:20,130 | So unfavorable GAAP risk now, so we don't want to open ourselves up to that. So here's that shaded area, I told you, we would see when we dropped down to the |
83 | 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:35,190 | lower timeframes, it's that 15 minute, cell side and balanced by side and efficiency on the right hand side. Okay, it's a fat knees a little bit. So it's |
84 | 00:16:35,190 --> 00:16:49,050 | this damn close candle right here. I'm defining it by this candles high in this candles low, there. So that's where we traded up into here. And then, much like |
85 | 00:16:49,050 --> 00:17:00,420 | I was saying about this area over here, about staying open, not completely overlapping this portion of this down close candle between the dashed line. And |
86 | 00:17:00,420 --> 00:17:09,120 | this candles low, I want to see that shaded area I want that to not be traded back up into now it could trade up to here and go into a little bit. I'd like to |
87 | 00:17:09,120 --> 00:17:20,730 | see something left there on filled, meaning, much like we just saw here. So this little shaded area here, I mean, draw it outside and see it. Totally understand |
88 | 00:17:20,730 --> 00:17:33,150 | what I'm referring to that love that high. Right there. Notice how we dug into it just a little bit right there. That little wick on that candle. Let me change |
89 | 00:17:33,150 --> 00:17:35,760 | the color. I apologize. We stand out too much. |
90 | 00:17:42,390 --> 00:17:52,140 | To the Joker that said pay gaps have been around since the 1900s. I'm the guy that brought that in the 1900s. It was 1996. Thank you very much. But anyway, |
91 | 00:17:52,170 --> 00:18:03,390 | this inefficiency here. It stayed open. Then look what happened with a lot of movement into downside. So I'm kind of like waiting to see this very element |
92 | 00:18:03,900 --> 00:18:17,310 | appear in this section of price action between dashed line in this candles low. Okay. I have to do it because I know some of you are wondering what the hell |
93 | 00:18:17,310 --> 00:18:24,360 | those lines are. You probably didn't watch the beginning of the stream. It's this inefficiency on this candle here on the daily chart. Okay, so on the left |
94 | 00:18:24,360 --> 00:18:37,950 | hand side, that's the s&p apartment. This bearish candle is June 12 2023. So what I'm showing is the high of this candle, which is June 9, Friday, June |
95 | 00:18:37,950 --> 00:18:53,010 | 9 2023, their high and the low of the candle of the Tuesday, June 13 2023. So this inefficiency is what I'm highlighting. So I'm dealing this gap or by some |
96 | 00:18:53,010 --> 00:19:01,650 | imbalance on efficiency, which is a fair value gap. We've already traded down through it. Okay, now that the folks that understand inefficiencies in price, |
97 | 00:19:01,650 --> 00:19:10,080 | for instance, I love Chris Laurie. When they see this when it trades down to here, he's he's done with it, he's not going to worry about it anymore. That's |
98 | 00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:21,990 | not the total story. Okay? Because there's an algorithm because it's codified, because I'm sharing how is an absolutely delivering price. We want to know that |
99 | 00:19:22,020 --> 00:19:33,390 | these levels do in fact exist. But once they overlap them, and it's a redelivery. This area here will be revisited by the algorithm at a later time. |
100 | 00:19:33,510 --> 00:19:41,850 | It'll be acting just as you would expect support and resistance to work when you read a book you say okay, here's a high it went up there and then getting lower. |
101 | 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:49,980 | So therefore when it trades back up here again, it should act the same way. And when you try to do it, it runs right through keeps on going higher. Enough |
102 | 00:19:49,980 --> 00:20:02,730 | inefficiencies. Fair Value gaps by Sanibel sauce on efficiency sellside and balanced by Simon efficiency. Wicks book Haskell encroachment of them. They are |
103 | 00:20:02,730 --> 00:20:12,510 | the real support and resistance, everything you see in books, those things are cherry pick, those things are out. And always after the fact, just like diagonal |
104 | 00:20:12,510 --> 00:20:23,190 | support resistance. If you put 100 people in a room and place them in front of a chart, any timeframe, until then look, draw a trendline, you got one chance to |
105 | 00:20:23,190 --> 00:20:31,440 | draw a trendline. And it has to be the one that price you think, will respect in the future, there's going to be a myriad of different trend lines. So which |
106 | 00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:40,470 | one's right? It's always going to be the one that worked at their words that they put in their examples or their books. With my fair value gap theory, and |
107 | 00:20:40,470 --> 00:20:51,540 | the weight price books, the way it's codified the way I'm delivering it to just like I did in the 90s fingerprints all over this. This is how you see real |
108 | 00:20:51,540 --> 00:20:59,340 | support resistance, you'll see real dynamic price delivery and reactions that you would otherwise have never paid any attention, you wouldn't have ever seen |
109 | 00:20:59,340 --> 00:21:08,370 | it. But it's been here the whole time. It's hiding in plain sight. So anyway, that goes into a rant. That's the inefficiency we're looking at, okay, so that |
110 | 00:21:08,370 --> 00:21:12,180 | we see these dashed lines in the lower timeframe, back down to the 15 minute timeframe. |
111 | 00:21:18,690 --> 00:21:28,710 | That's these two levels here, that's the high the inefficiency. And if the low the inefficiency, so if we do in fact trade higher, I'd like to see it respect |
112 | 00:21:28,710 --> 00:21:40,020 | that one. But it can it can trade up into this little area here in not do too much in terms of, I guess, upsetting when I'm looking for. So let's go on to 15 |
113 | 00:21:41,820 --> 00:21:51,960 | and here's that shaded area here viewed on the 50 minute time frame and we're just looking at a 60 minute that's this area that shaded out I'm gonna see that |
114 | 00:21:51,960 --> 00:22:04,290 | portion stay open just like we have this little orange colored box okay, let me take this range off that we can see that just like this is left open in order to |
115 | 00:22:04,290 --> 00:22:11,670 | this as this movement was going up we didn't completely trade back to this candles low right there |
116 | 00:22:17,940 --> 00:22:26,820 | the separation between this candles low in this candle is high. We traded just above this candle high right there on this one which is institutional |
117 | 00:22:26,820 --> 00:22:39,750 | differential drill meaning it's a partial entry of a fair value gap but doesn't go to halfway so that's how you define it institutional order for entry drill is |
118 | 00:22:39,780 --> 00:22:55,200 | any re entry into an old inefficiency like this shaded area here soon as we enter that but we do not go to the midpoint which would be up here anything less |
119 | 00:22:55,200 --> 00:23:02,460 | than that is institutional or for entry drill. Now I know somebody like you How do I know when to do that when when the gaps that I've already talked about that |
120 | 00:23:02,460 --> 00:23:16,020 | okay, there's no shortcutting it there's lots of especially be here in the room with me I had no idea how the hell they got in it scares me like Donald Trump |
121 | 00:23:16,020 --> 00:23:26,880 | when he saw that eagle move around gonna make sure I don't lean up against you know, be stung here listening to me how and screaming about it. But anyway, this |
122 | 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:40,890 | inefficiency here that is a breakaway gap. I'd like to see this act in similar fashion. Alright. So let's go into a five minute chart and wrap this up because |
123 | 00:23:41,370 --> 00:23:51,660 | I'm I spent way too much time. Much more than I wanted to spend five minutes here |
124 | 00:23:57,330 --> 00:24:09,480 | now the helmet began here. Alright, so you can see how we had a really nice delivery off of this nice breakaway gap. So this is a normal redelivery of this |
125 | 00:24:09,660 --> 00:24:18,960 | inefficiency does it here and cells off, comes back up into this old inefficiency there breaks lower. And then we have this one here institutional |
126 | 00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:36,330 | refinery drill there, and it does not have this area here completely closed in. Then aggressively it rolls lower. This in here. Watch this one this morning. We |
127 | 00:24:36,330 --> 00:24:50,430 | could go up into that. And then maybe dig another deeper low. But I would not be wanting to go long this morning. There's a lot of fever in the market right now |
128 | 00:24:50,430 --> 00:25:01,980 | that maybe even seek lower prices. And I'm not I'm not risking anything today. I'm not trading on a live account. I'm pressing a demo. Okay. You're welcome to |
129 | 00:25:01,980 --> 00:25:10,680 | do whatever you want to do. I'm not trying to inspire risk today. I've been pretty much bang on all week. And I'm gonna close the week on that high note |
130 | 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:23,850 | like that. I will do a review for today's price action, but I can't promise it'll be tonight. So, if it's not tonight, it'll be tomorrow, sometime before |
131 | 00:25:23,850 --> 00:25:34,380 | one o'clock my local time. And then I'll have a teaching for you on Sunday. So we'll have a lecture teaching. And there you go. I know I hear you you said you |
132 | 00:25:34,380 --> 00:25:48,660 | was gonna do euro and dollar I didn't forget, just let me get through my rambling. Alright, let's go to the daily chart for Dixie and your dollar |
133 | 00:25:57,420 --> 00:26:13,740 | Hang on one second. I flicked that animals this desk just tried to get on me. Hang on one second. He's pissed off at your dollar, the sounds gonna sound a |
134 | 00:26:13,740 --> 00:26:25,380 | little bit different cuz I stepped out my stairway here, these are all the things that maybe not to be okay if he's an extra today. But he's not being an |
135 | 00:26:25,380 --> 00:26:36,570 | NPC, he's actually being an intermediate ball. So I gotta contend with so we're gonna go back and remove him from my office. So when you get here, traveling |
136 | 00:26:36,570 --> 00:26:37,740 | through the house, give me a second. |
137 | 00:26:45,210 --> 00:26:58,320 | Go ICT. Alright, so here we are. The sounds should be a little bit better now. So on the left hand side, we have Dollar Index. I've been counting you to look |
138 | 00:26:58,410 --> 00:27:10,200 | for these relative equal highs here. Let me take all this business. And I wanted you to focus on how we could draw to this level here. And we pierced it |
139 | 00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:18,000 | yesterday, just by a little bit, I'd like to see a little bit much, little bit much, I'd like to see a little bit more of a meaningful run through this high. |
140 | 00:27:19,710 --> 00:27:32,910 | And depending on how we deliver, because this is too shallow of a run above, okay, I want to see it go through it a little bit more energy more desire to get |
141 | 00:27:32,910 --> 00:27:43,650 | through it. And eventually, we may in fact, want to get back up above this high. I'm not claiming that yet. But I want to see right now just a much more |
142 | 00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:53,490 | meaningful run above this high here. Before the dollar index. On the Eurodollar. We were looking for lower prices. We had these relative equal lows here mapped |
143 | 00:27:53,490 --> 00:28:07,440 | out. It's it's been really sloppy delivery all through this old inefficiency. Here. Let me zoom in. I can tell you my OCD is flaring about this presentation. |
144 | 00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:17,070 | Because it's not. It's not like I would want it to be but yeah, we're in the trenches right now. So this inefficiency between these candles low in this |
145 | 00:28:17,070 --> 00:28:26,400 | candle is high. That's the spice Annabelle sellside inefficiency. It's dug down into it here rallied and then we work down into N back and forth all these daily |
146 | 00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:40,590 | candles working in range. Now we're here. So in my mind, I'm expecting this delivery and price right there. Below this, there really isn't any inefficiency |
147 | 00:28:40,590 --> 00:28:51,720 | at all throughout this on this particular timeframe. So what we what we would be doing is below this, there's no inefficiency over here. But we do have wicks, so |
148 | 00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:58,620 | you would be dividing your wicks and half getting consequent encouragement, you would have it on this candle here. I'm not gonna draw it out, you can do a few |
149 | 00:28:58,620 --> 00:29:09,960 | years for your own charts. But that level there half of this wick, you'd have that. And the same thing with this one here. Okay. And for order block, it's |
150 | 00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:19,320 | this down close candle here. You want to highlight the high and the opening price. So if we get below these long over the next, you know, week or so maybe |
151 | 00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:33,990 | two weeks, that level may be a factor for concern on the discount side. Okay, so we'll use that one. They're the easiest close level not have to use the opening |
152 | 00:29:33,990 --> 00:29:42,180 | price. I prefer the opening price. Why? Why do you like the opening price ICT in not just the wick high? Because sometimes you put it on the wick and sometimes |
153 | 00:29:42,180 --> 00:29:52,890 | you put it on the body when it's a stubby little wick like that. I'm going to elect to use the body. But if it's a wick, what am I going to do there? I'm |
154 | 00:29:52,890 --> 00:30:01,620 | gonna use the Hi. I'm gonna use consequent encouragement, and I'm going to use the opening price. There's three specific levels that's on a zoom That's not a |
155 | 00:30:01,620 --> 00:30:10,710 | oh, well, you know, it's figured out where in this supply and demand zone, we're just to get a buy or sell signal that's too ambiguous. I want to see very |
156 | 00:30:10,710 --> 00:30:18,870 | specific price levels. And those very specific price levels, they're always the same. They're not morphing into something different. They're always static. |
157 | 00:30:19,410 --> 00:30:26,940 | They're not hiding from you, your candlesticks, the same candlestick I'm looking at. And well, at least when it comes to futures, because that's a gentleman's |
158 | 00:30:26,940 --> 00:30:36,540 | market. Forex dependent on who your liquidity provider is, and your broker, daily highs and lows and opening prices and closing prices can be skewed that |
159 | 00:30:36,540 --> 00:30:48,630 | the prices will be slightly different. Even in the same brokerage, like oanda, or when FX cm used to be in the United States, the scammers you would be in a |
160 | 00:30:48,660 --> 00:31:07,980 | different liquidity pool. Some of those prices would match another account holder in fxcm. So they're constantly people, can you win dream futures. The |
161 | 00:31:07,980 --> 00:31:16,590 | wonderful thing about that market is everybody sees the same price. So if you really want to be a professional, and you really want to graduate into a market |
162 | 00:31:16,590 --> 00:31:28,530 | that is highly regulated, there's very, very little shenanigans that you would see in forex. And Forex has improved a lot since 2006 or so. But it still has |
163 | 00:31:28,530 --> 00:31:35,430 | its own shenanigans. I mean, when you sign up to a brokerage firm with a Forex broker, you basically given them permission to stick it up your ass with no |
164 | 00:31:35,430 --> 00:31:41,850 | lube. Okay? I mean, that's exactly, it's exactly what you're saying, when you sign up with them. That's exactly what you're saying, essentially, you're doing |
165 | 00:31:41,850 --> 00:31:51,660 | that with any time of trading with real money. But you're really bending over in an environment when you're trading Forex, because that liquidity provider has |
166 | 00:31:51,660 --> 00:32:03,540 | the control, they can open the spread on you within reason. But we don't see that happening to the gross extremes that Forex does, that that doesn't occur so |
167 | 00:32:03,540 --> 00:32:12,540 | much in futures, there is manipulation. But we're all seeing the same high, we're all seeing the same low. There is no discrepancy there, which is why it's |
168 | 00:32:12,540 --> 00:32:27,030 | a gentleman's market. And my advice to you is eventually at some point, you're going to want to at least include it in your analysis. And maybe if you should |
169 | 00:32:27,090 --> 00:32:39,450 | decide to do so, maybe pursue some of your investments in that if it meets your risk parameters. And if it's something you want to do, I don't think that Forex |
170 | 00:32:39,450 --> 00:32:49,380 | is going to be a thing forever. And I mentioned this before, there's a lot of things going on in the monetary system globally. And I know, I know some of you |
171 | 00:32:49,380 --> 00:32:57,150 | guys that are brand new in this industry, and you're running around trying to be influencers and you think you know everything, I promise you this in your |
172 | 00:32:57,150 --> 00:33:09,300 | lifetime, maybe inside the next 10 years, or less for x is not going to be a thing. And I'm telling you, I've said this before in Twitter spaces, I've said |
173 | 00:33:09,300 --> 00:33:21,570 | this to my private students in mentorship. I'm trying to show you another way. So that way when it does, in fact happen when they do do away with and make it |
174 | 00:33:21,630 --> 00:33:34,410 | outlawed that you trade. These other currencies. We used to have the Deutsche Mark futures contract. There are that currency still exists, but you can't trade |
175 | 00:33:34,410 --> 00:33:41,040 | it anymore. Just like a pork belly. You can't trade anymore, but You're all eating bacon, right? Okay, that's where bacon comes from. pork bellies. These |
176 | 00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:48,870 | pork belly futures, they don't trade anymore. Eight futures don't trade anymore. So if you're paying attention, you're seeing all these central bank digital |
177 | 00:33:48,870 --> 00:33:55,470 | currencies being discussed. And we've been talking about this before anybody else was seeing it? I've been warning about it. So I've been telling you crypto |
178 | 00:33:55,470 --> 00:34:04,860 | is not the thing. Okay, your beloved Bitcoin ain't gonna be here forever. Okay, I'm telling you, it will not be here. I know. You want to argue with me. But |
179 | 00:34:04,860 --> 00:34:13,260 | I've made so much money and you're an old man ICT you don't know what's going on. I know more than you realize. And I'm trying to be very polite in the way |
180 | 00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:26,100 | I'm doing this. But you're all going to, you're all going to get wrecked doing that. When they institute real central bank digital currencies, you will have a |
181 | 00:34:26,100 --> 00:34:36,780 | time limit on when and how you spend your money. And you will not be able to escape it by trading or investing or operating with Bitcoin. If Bitcoin was the |
182 | 00:34:36,810 --> 00:34:47,820 | escape from fiat currency, then they wouldn't be able to lock your shit down. Take your money, keep you from being able to spend it. Where's the protection? |
183 | 00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:59,550 | There ain't none. As soon as he put a futures contract on it, guess what I told everybody. It's done. It's over. The illusion is over. Our government put that |
184 | 00:34:59,550 --> 00:35:12,300 | together. Satoshi is a myth, period. Okay, it's the way it is. And you have to make preparations, folks, you have to make preparations for a market environment |
185 | 00:35:12,330 --> 00:35:23,550 | that is outside of just Forex, and crypto, stocks are going to be around, there's gonna be, there's always going to be company issues in shares, that's |
186 | 00:35:23,550 --> 00:35:30,780 | going to be there. Okay? If you're outside the states and you can't trade our futures contract, that's okay. You can trade, whatever your stock market is, my |
187 | 00:35:30,780 --> 00:35:39,960 | stuff works there. Okay, it works there, just like it works here. And you just have to make sure that you have opportunities outside of what you think with a |
188 | 00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:48,720 | very myopic view, that you can only make your money through Forex, you can only make your money through crypto, things are about to get really, really |
189 | 00:35:48,750 --> 00:36:01,800 | difficult, extremely difficult. And having lots of money like I do does not have an exemption for me, I'm going to feel just like you that having lots of money |
190 | 00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:15,540 | is not an exemption to what's coming. When they change things on the financial front, and they put an expiration on how long you can have your money before it |
191 | 00:36:15,660 --> 00:36:26,640 | expires. And yes, it's a real thing. That's why these things are concerning. But you're not going to stop it. You're not going to stop it. You can come with all |
192 | 00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:35,010 | these little crypto coins and all these little things. Okay. But that is another distraction to the inevitable, which is eventually everything's going to go to |
193 | 00:36:35,010 --> 00:36:44,670 | one currency. You're going to see it in your lifetime. That's the reality. And as far fetched as you think that may be in science fiction level. |
194 | 00:36:46,409 --> 00:36:57,089 | Nonsense, and I'm sure some of you're laughing remarks, especially you 20 year olds, you 20 year olds that know everything. Watch and see. Watch and see |
195 | 00:36:57,539 --> 00:37:10,319 | exactly, exactly what I've been saying is gonna happen. I'm batting 1000, folks, okay, I'm not just a precise person on these lower timeframes. And on the daily |
196 | 00:37:10,319 --> 00:37:23,009 | charts, we're doing high timeframe, macro analysis, I'm telling you the future before it happens. And I've been trying my best to do it in a manner where it |
197 | 00:37:23,009 --> 00:37:34,979 | doesn't scare you into paralysis, because there's lots of opportunity now and then. But once it's here, I don't have any answers for you. I don't have any |
198 | 00:37:35,039 --> 00:37:51,299 | answers for myself. I don't know how it's going to be once it really fully happens. But it's going to happen abruptly. It's going to happen so fast. So |
199 | 00:37:51,689 --> 00:38:03,179 | shockingly. And it's going to come through pain, because people are going to be wanting some kind of resolution or protection or an ulterior means of doing |
200 | 00:38:03,179 --> 00:38:17,099 | things. So that thing never happens again, fresh. So you have to open your eyes to opportunities that exist out of what you're already trading right now you |
201 | 00:38:17,099 --> 00:38:25,409 | have to be outside of that. You can't just simply say, Well, you know, this is going to always work because it says every week every day, and it won't stop. |
202 | 00:38:26,069 --> 00:38:45,269 | There is a time when it will when they fundamentally change how we can trade and speculate. And I believe I'll see that my lifetime. And I'm 51 Now does that |
203 | 00:38:45,269 --> 00:38:56,129 | mean we won't be able to trade? Well, I think there's only a whole lot of restrictions on who's allowed to trade who can buy and sell not only that for a |
204 | 00:38:56,129 --> 00:39:12,119 | SoundCloud discussion, drop into a 60 minute chart real quick. Alright, so we have nice Oh, fair value, get in here trade up into that we're in sellside now. |
205 | 00:39:15,449 --> 00:39:28,979 | So you want to have 108 33 Eight on your chart at sell side. So I would expect that to be delivered today. So there you go. You do what you want to do with |
206 | 00:39:28,979 --> 00:39:37,859 | that. I'm not saying you should trade it. We're digging up above that high here. You're looking for that for last few weeks now. And I just don't know how we're |
207 | 00:39:37,859 --> 00:40:00,809 | gonna engage this high if at all. GBP USD. I haven't seen her for a while. We're still inside it daily. Let me see. The inefficiency, relatively colos. And then |
208 | 00:40:00,809 --> 00:40:09,089 | we have this one here. So there's lots of sell side resting below there. I'd like to see assuming that we maintain this bullishness on the dollar. Just be |
209 | 00:40:09,089 --> 00:40:18,539 | careful because it's Friday. But longer term, you know, I think we may want to go below here and attack the sell side right in here. But this type of price |
210 | 00:40:18,539 --> 00:40:29,009 | action for as a forex trader, it's better markets to trade man. I mean, just look at what we've been doing in the NASDAQ in the s&p There's no comparison |
211 | 00:40:29,159 --> 00:40:32,459 | there's literally no comparison and then when you look at stuff like this year |
212 | 00:40:39,300 --> 00:40:56,550 | he's putting the Bitcoin charter Oh, grab it, he's got Bitcoin where's that? Expand this up? Okay, sellside resides here on Bitcoin. And we've had multiple |
213 | 00:40:56,580 --> 00:41:08,730 | approaches to try to go higher after taking buyside here, if you recall. And Ross, I was gonna do Bitcoin, not gonna talk about Bitcoin. I think that was a |
214 | 00:41:08,730 --> 00:41:18,750 | weekly inefficiency report that we could show. Up here, that was like the, the worst case scenario, if it went up to that point here, but this is what I was |
215 | 00:41:18,750 --> 00:41:32,490 | looking for. And we basically did that. And there's sellside here, and there's a little bit of inefficiency. Now, here's the key to your Bitcoin. If we overlap |
216 | 00:41:32,490 --> 00:41:44,250 | all of this, and dig below the consequent encroachment of that candle right there, this sell side is going to be roasted. And before the elections of next |
217 | 00:41:44,250 --> 00:41:56,220 | year, this right here is gonna be taken out there you go. That's, that's what I'm telling you. Okay. So, your your Bitcoin 100,000 You can put that to bed, |
218 | 00:41:56,220 --> 00:42:04,260 | it's not happening. Okay, I promise you that's not happening. Okay, I promise you, I promise you, I promise you, your Bitcoin 100,000 Ain't gonna happen. |
219 | 00:42:04,710 --> 00:42:16,410 | Okay, it's not happening. So, is there anything else gold, and there's some of your private, please ICT pick up on my wavelength right now talk about gold. |
220 | 00:42:22,980 --> 00:42:32,640 | I use for that comment around looking at things like this, I drew your attention to on the weekly. I'm sorry, the daily chart. I think the last time we talked, I |
221 | 00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:45,570 | was looking at this area down here. We're digging into the south side there. As long as this keeps dropping. We'll be looking for sell side here. And higher |
222 | 00:42:45,570 --> 00:42:54,660 | prices on $1. That's how you want to judge. Okay, so if you're a gold trader, you really want to be watching the dollar index, they're going to be inversely |
223 | 00:42:55,140 --> 00:43:05,370 | correlated. So as one goes up, the other should go down. So you're constantly balancing that out over and over and over again. And right now, because it's |
224 | 00:43:05,370 --> 00:43:14,070 | Friday, because we're in sellside, we're below Oh, kilo on a daily chart, you have to be very, very careful. No new positions should be assumed in gold going |
225 | 00:43:14,070 --> 00:43:20,850 | short, with a large degree of risk. That's, that's basically what I'm saying. It doesn't mean you can't short it just means that you don't want to be doing it |
226 | 00:43:20,850 --> 00:43:31,350 | with heavy leverage. Because time of the week, which is the end of the week, it's Friday, that could be using Friday to establish some weekend sentiment to |
227 | 00:43:31,350 --> 00:43:38,100 | get people wanting to do something going into next week. So there'll be anticipating all through Saturday and Sunday before the markets open again, |
228 | 00:43:38,580 --> 00:43:47,130 | wanting a willingness to want to do something and it's engineering sentiment. So that's why it's very, very important that you understand day of week phenomenon |
229 | 00:43:47,130 --> 00:43:59,310 | that I teach in my lectures because knowing that can help you not assume risk foolishly going into the weekend, or getting tricked by what they do on a Friday |
230 | 00:43:59,310 --> 00:44:06,360 | because they can do sometimes many things on a Friday that may think oh, it's going to be going higher next week when and then all sudden they get that lower |
231 | 00:44:06,360 --> 00:44:20,880 | on Sunday and then just completely destroy everybody and their sentiment and break hearts. Quick, we'll pass through on you can tell I love this don't ICTs |
232 | 00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:31,410 | never gone anywhere. He's gonna be here. Now. Maybe on YouTube. Once a week, I'll give you a review or something but Twitter and all that business, it's not |
233 | 00:44:31,410 --> 00:44:47,550 | gonna happen. Alright, so we're digging into that inefficiency again, here here we are here. And we don't here's, here's what we don't want to see. We do not |
234 | 00:44:47,550 --> 00:44:58,590 | want to see because it's Friday. We don't want to see this traded above and treated as support if it does, whatever lows and in place that's probably gonna |
235 | 00:44:58,590 --> 00:45:08,160 | be low for the day. because it's Friday, and that's what I would expect. I'm not trading today. Okay, I want you to understand that I'm not going to be putting |
236 | 00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:15,930 | trades on so that way, you get a dose on Twitter from me, I'm not going to give you any screenshots of here's what I did, I'm going to be away from the charts, |
237 | 00:45:16,350 --> 00:45:26,160 | do not do anything without any experience, without any kind of knowledge about what it is you're trying to do or what you should or shouldn't do. Don't risk |
238 | 00:45:26,220 --> 00:45:39,000 | today, we've already moved so far. This week already, the chances of a TGIF which is thank God, it's Friday scenario where it pulls back up into 20, or 30% |
239 | 00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:47,640 | of the weekly range. That means pull up a weekly chart, and from the highest high of the week to wherever the lowest low is that's formed. As we go into the |
240 | 00:45:47,820 --> 00:45:56,010 | latter portions of the afternoon today, we could see it trade back up into the 20 to 30% of that range. That's TGIF, we're not trying to predict the closing |
241 | 00:45:56,010 --> 00:46:06,240 | price. But it's always likely to occur, especially if we had a lot of movement. And we've seen a lot of movement on the sell side of this market this week on |
242 | 00:46:06,270 --> 00:46:27,960 | indices or boons cracking PSU. All right, and here's the one you want to be watching for s&p. Okay, so that's this level here. Remember, I said I wanted to |
243 | 00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:38,700 | see that area, stay open. Thank you so much, small little favor, I get there. But don't just watch and see if we do in fact, dig down into here. Like I said, |
244 | 00:46:38,700 --> 00:46:46,230 | that's, that would be enough for me, like if I was short today, or if I was short from yesterday, which I'm not I don't have any open positions right now. I |
245 | 00:46:46,230 --> 00:46:59,160 | would be content with getting out one tick above this level. So 4349, that would be a limit order where I would be done. And I'd be content with it, I don't give |
246 | 00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:09,750 | a shit. If this thing went down to 4200. That's the way I would trade it. Because it's Friday, it's already moved a lot. And there's no hope for anyone |
247 | 00:47:09,750 --> 00:47:20,250 | that tries to put their entire career on the result of one trade. And I teach this in my lectures in my Twitter spaces. You really want to try to avoid doing |
248 | 00:47:20,250 --> 00:47:29,610 | that. Don't put all your hopes and dreams in the make it or break it the success or failure is measured only on the basis of whatever that trade is you're doing |
249 | 00:47:29,610 --> 00:47:42,330 | today. And the way you prevent that from happening is not over leveraging, not trying to do more than you should. And or look for homeruns in my mind, I would |
250 | 00:47:42,330 --> 00:47:51,000 | be content with the weekly range being complete, once it trades into this area here. And I would not require to trade into the midpoint of it or to the low of |
251 | 00:47:51,000 --> 00:48:01,440 | it or through I don't need that. You don't need it either. So it would be fruitful for you to sit. Tape read the rest of the day. If you made money this |
252 | 00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:10,170 | week, be happy with that. There's no need for you to make more of it today. If you think that or someone on social media is telling you that you should you are |
253 | 00:48:10,170 --> 00:48:18,690 | a fool. You're being manipulated and influenced by other people. That means you you're not driving this, this ship. You're not the captain of your ship. You're |
254 | 00:48:18,690 --> 00:48:33,030 | not the you're not the CEO of your company, you're letting other people run it so anyway, I'm not sure if you get anything out of all this today, but there it |
255 | 00:48:33,030 --> 00:48:46,980 | is. And I want you to enjoy this weekend. Like I said, If I don't do the review tonight. I will do it tomorrow sometime for one o'clock. And then I'll have a |
256 | 00:48:46,980 --> 00:48:53,880 | lecture for you on Sunday something in terms of teaching. And with that, of course have a good week. |