ICT YT - 2023-08-17 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - ES and NQ Futures Review August 16 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-08-23 11:15
Outline
00:13 - Review of the daily charts.
- A quick review of the daily and daily charts of the S and P futures contract and the Nasdaq daily chart.
- Looking for daily bias and a judas swing.
01:47 - Market structure and inefficiency.
- The market traded up into the inefficiency break lower, lower shift in market structure rallies back up, and a fair value gap in here.
- Nasdaq traded up on the 15th.
03:20 - Today's price action.
- Today's action is not classic support resistance. This is nothing but support resistance, but the body is telling the narrative that this imbalance is a brick wall.
- Expectations going forward are 14,008.
04:32 - The shift in market structure.
- The market accelerates the downside during fomc minutes, taking out the 4424 level and moving to fair value gaps.
- The five-minute chart shows the inefficiency of the market.
06:29 - How to look at the current market?
- Having higher timeframe pd arrays on charts is very important, otherwise you'll lose yourself in the candlesticks, and it's important not to get lost in delivery.
- Daily bias and daily bias.
08:16 - What we're looking for.
- This does not scare us. It does not make us second guess our analysis. This means that this is exactly what we are looking for.
- Follow me on Twitter.
09:37 - The importance of understanding and activating your reticular activating system.
- Trading is transferable, but you have to do these types of things every single day to condition your understanding and activate your reticular activating system.
- Every run is linked to a time delivery mechanism.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:26,310 | ICT: Welcome back, folks. Just a quick little review here. The left hand chart is the s&p futures contract a daily chart and the right hand is the NASDAQ daily |
| 2 | 00:00:26,310 --> 00:00:38,670 | chart. You can see here we did in fact, run outside of the imbalance. We did in fact trade up into it due to swing and trade lower look at last night's review |
| 3 | 00:00:38,670 --> 00:00:46,650 | and you'll hear that that's what we're looking for. We want to see a measure of movement to the upside with sets up a Judas swing. Okay, so the context is when |
| 4 | 00:00:46,650 --> 00:00:59,700 | you were looking for daily bias is we're looking for a weekly drawn liquidity the frame a buy or sell program, that individually each day, we're waiting for |
| 5 | 00:00:59,700 --> 00:01:08,610 | power three to materialize in this case, we've been bearish on s&p and NASDAQ that means the open is going to be near the high. And anything above the opening |
| 6 | 00:01:08,610 --> 00:01:19,290 | price would be viewed as a Judas swing, a fake rally to entice traders to chase that going long. And then aggressively trading lower the sell side resting in |
| 7 | 00:01:19,290 --> 00:01:34,560 | here for the s&p and over here on the NASDAQ we had similar delivery in price we have the open deduces swing, moving higher, both the opening price and then |
| 8 | 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:48,810 | moving lower, sell side liquidity resting below here. All right, hourly chart here and let the inside s&p mentioned this. In passing last night, we had the |
| 9 | 00:01:49,650 --> 00:01:59,160 | Boston bounce all sudden efficiency worked up into top of that range and broke lower. I told you exactly where this shaded area is here. We ended up revisiting |
| 10 | 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:11,160 | that again today. So it kind of like framed the daily high. So the market traded up into the inefficiency broke lower shift in market structure rallies back up. |
| 11 | 00:02:12,030 --> 00:02:22,200 | We have a fair value gap in here. And then look all the movement beyond that, but the bodies are very close to that shaded area. Now this is one of the |
| 12 | 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:33,090 | sectors that I was referring to last night about August August tends to be a little bit more muddy in the sense that it's not as clean as you would expect to |
| 13 | 00:02:33,090 --> 00:02:45,000 | see in other months of the year. There's smaller inefficiency written here in the form of a fair value gap and or Sivvi. So you can mark that on your charts |
| 14 | 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:53,070 | as I'm trying to keep this area clean as we work through the timeframes. And then at the time of the recording here, we're looking at the next sales on the |
| 15 | 00:02:53,070 --> 00:03:01,980 | quarter, which is in close proximity to where we are at the time of this recording. On the right hand side, NASDAQ can be traded up into consequent |
| 16 | 00:03:01,980 --> 00:03:14,160 | encouragement on the 15th broke lower consequent parchment of this city here. WaterBlock consequent encouragement of the bus Annabelle suasana efficiency on |
| 17 | 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:25,950 | the hourly chart, we have a fair value gap here. Look at the bodies. Okay? This is today's price action, extend that forward. Okay, this is not your classic |
| 18 | 00:03:25,950 --> 00:03:33,180 | support resistance to the fellas that like that show up in my comment sections and talk about how this is nothing but support resistance. Well, if it is just |
| 19 | 00:03:33,180 --> 00:03:41,040 | support resistance, and it's this this easy, I would love for you to do these things in advance and call it before it happens to but something tells me it's |
| 20 | 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:50,640 | just not gonna happen. But the inefficiency here plus the wicks doing the damage, trading up into the inefficiency, the bearish order block here. But the |
| 21 | 00:03:50,640 --> 00:04:04,320 | body's telling the narrative, meaning that this imbalance. Now we have a balanced price range, we go up, down up down half consequent encouragement, we |
| 22 | 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:19,680 | leave it it's like a brick wall sells off. We have a fair value gap. Consequent encouragement of this WIC and to close candles, lots of indications at that two |
| 23 | 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:33,000 | o'clock FOMC minutes, expecting that to be a wonderful sell off and gravitating towards that 14,008 53 and a half. That's our expectations going forward. If you |
| 24 | 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:40,710 | didn't timeframe left hand side s&p, you can see we did in fact trade up into that shaded area as I mentioned last night it took you into exactly where that |
| 25 | 00:04:40,770 --> 00:04:50,370 | occurs. And then price broke lower we have a shift in market structure. So this movement right here, this is model 2022. Okay, so the mentorship model that I |
| 26 | 00:04:50,370 --> 00:05:02,250 | taught in the year 2022 on my YouTube channel here this is the exact model being delivered here in the afternoon during FOMC minutes. The market accelerates the |
| 27 | 00:05:02,250 --> 00:05:14,550 | downside, taking out the 4424 level that I mentioned on YouTube, NASDAQ law right hand side, here's our imbalance or fear Vega, and the Monday 10am 60 |
| 28 | 00:05:14,550 --> 00:05:23,070 | minute boss on the balance on efficiency high and respective low. That's what these levels are here. We trade it up into that lots of confluence in here. |
| 29 | 00:05:23,370 --> 00:05:33,240 | Okay, lots of confluence. And again, the market shows displacement to the downside shift in market structure here to fair value gaps, just like over here, |
| 30 | 00:05:33,510 --> 00:05:42,420 | here, and here. You make allowance for price the trade up into the second one. Here we see it actually occur. So we have the inefficiency here, and then this |
| 31 | 00:05:42,420 --> 00:05:52,050 | one here, so don't FOMC minutes, we trade up into it here for 15 minutes says on balance bias on efficiency, consequent encroachment pay for the gap, then |
| 32 | 00:05:52,530 --> 00:06:02,610 | aggressive sell off, institutional level entry drill, which is a major spoke this candle Hi there, and sells off. And then again, looking for 14,008 53 and a |
| 33 | 00:06:02,610 --> 00:06:13,800 | half. Finally, moving into a five minute chart, you can see here, this is our Afternoon pm session, which I was sleeping through the silver bullet. So we can |
| 34 | 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:25,440 | see it straight up into here and aggressively move lower attacking that 4424. And in similar vein here, and you don't see the inefficiency, so much on the |
| 35 | 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:35,370 | five minute once we drop down from 15 to five. But having this higher timeframe, PD arrays on your charts are very important. Otherwise, you'll lose yourself in |
| 36 | 00:06:35,370 --> 00:06:44,730 | the candlesticks, it's important not to get lost in price delivery. So we see it straight up into here breaks lower, look at the bodies forming inside of the |
| 37 | 00:06:44,760 --> 00:07:00,330 | Monday 9:30am low in the Sunday 11:50pm low, those two sellside liquidity pools I mentioned this morning at the start of the trading day. And all of this |
| 38 | 00:07:00,330 --> 00:07:10,380 | movement here at 930. All of this was a Judas swing. Okay, so for the guys that like to comment, when I post on Twitter, when I say for instance, when a an |
| 39 | 00:07:10,380 --> 00:07:19,020 | objective is reach, okay, I'll put like something to the effect like a boom, or there it is, or something to that effect that you draw some kind of emotional |
| 40 | 00:07:19,020 --> 00:07:27,390 | stimuli around it. So that way it's meaningful to you that way, you'll go into your journal, where your charts and you refer to that as a milestone in your |
| 41 | 00:07:27,390 --> 00:07:38,520 | observation, because you want something outline in advance, then deliver. So obviously people that say those things that say, Oh, well, you only went up, you |
| 42 | 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:51,810 | know, so many handles, before going down there. It didn't really go up, you know, 100 handles higher, it went up to go to levels that I had outlined last |
| 43 | 00:07:51,810 --> 00:08:00,900 | night. Listen to the outline and analysis like at last night, we're looking for a move higher first. Okay, so if you're a student of mine, you know, this is the |
| 44 | 00:08:00,900 --> 00:08:09,810 | case, when we're looking for daily bias and we're bearish, we wait for initial delivery that is opposing, that means it's against, it's not in the same |
| 45 | 00:08:09,810 --> 00:08:17,340 | direction of where we want to see the market go to. So initially, we want to see some kind of false movement in the opposite direction. That does not scare us, |
| 46 | 00:08:17,340 --> 00:08:24,150 | it doesn't make us second guess our analysis. This means that that's exactly what we're looking for. And there's a lot of retail traders that thought that |
| 47 | 00:08:24,150 --> 00:08:32,130 | these markets in these levels up here, were going to go higher, it just simply was not going to do so because everything I shared with you last night before |
| 48 | 00:08:32,130 --> 00:08:40,410 | the fact. And then without stealing the thunder from the tweets because I actually call it out all the key turning points and where we're going to draw to |
| 49 | 00:08:40,770 --> 00:08:50,340 | throughout the morning. And then we actually get it here. So it's important for you to follow me on Twitter, if you don't follow me at least go and check it |
| 50 | 00:08:50,340 --> 00:09:01,020 | out, look at tweets and pull them up and plot them on your trading view chart. You can just do a copy of the individual tweets the US and when I'm referring to |
| 51 | 00:09:01,020 --> 00:09:11,580 | specific levels. And that way you can right click your mouse button over top of a chart and then click Paste in the actual tweet that I make a comment about |
| 52 | 00:09:12,090 --> 00:09:21,390 | will be attached to the very candlestick at the time that I made that tweet. And then you can judge whether or not there was any visibility there or not. But you |
| 53 | 00:09:21,390 --> 00:09:22,470 | have to take the entire |
| 54 | 00:09:23,490 --> 00:09:31,350 | understanding and observation and analysis that was given to you last night we were looking for lower prices. We were looking for where the NASDAQ trade two |
| 55 | 00:09:31,350 --> 00:09:41,610 | today, we're looking for where the s&p traded to today. It's undeniable folks, these things are transferable. You can learn how to do it. But you have to do |
| 56 | 00:09:41,610 --> 00:09:48,090 | these types of things every single day to condition your understanding and activate your reticular activating system allows you to see these things that |
| 57 | 00:09:48,090 --> 00:09:59,490 | you've been hunting for and you build an importance. You build an affinity towards these things that we're annotating the chart by journaling and as a |
| 58 | 00:09:59,490 --> 00:10:08,430 | result The default function of you seeing these things in hindsight and then anticipating them, sticking with a tape reading environment, that means not |
| 59 | 00:10:08,430 --> 00:10:17,220 | trading it in a demo, that means not trading with a funded account challenge, not trying to trade it with why funds to simply relaxing in letting the |
| 60 | 00:10:17,220 --> 00:10:26,430 | understanding build. Over time, they'll be in a rush to try to make money. You can't speed that part up. But the way that becomes easier is for you to go |
| 61 | 00:10:26,430 --> 00:10:36,600 | through this part of your growth, which is the longest part. And it's going to be longer than you want it to be. But if you submit to it, you'll get these |
| 62 | 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:45,870 | things, you'll understand what it is you're expected to see in price. In everything that I'm teaching you is linked the time. Every price run is linked |
| 63 | 00:10:45,930 --> 00:10:59,550 | to a time delivery mechanism. Nothing's random, nothing's this, look at this unless, unless something happens on a geopolitical or a storefront where you |
| 64 | 00:10:59,550 --> 00:11:09,330 | know, something that would be completely unexpected. And then they would not waste that opportunity either. So hopefully found this one insightful. And so |
| 65 | 00:11:09,330 --> 00:11:12,360 | I'll talk to you tomorrow. Be safe. |