ICT YT - 2023-08-16 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - ES and NQ Futures Review August 15 2023
Outline
00:18 - Review of the current market.
- Welcome back to the show, and a quick review of the day's trading, including a down close and a balance of outside and inside efficiency.
- Today's inefficiency.
02:19 - Trading outside of the wick.
- If the wick is going to come back up, try to work inside of it or treat the low end of this imbalance as resistance.
- August is a hit or miss month.
04:12 - Daily chart of the Nasdaq.
- Nasdaq on the right hand side, long wick, subsequent encouragement, midpoint of the gap or inefficiency is a wick.
- S&P on the left hand side is a daily chart.
05:59 - The normal tendency of a bearish market inefficiency.
- The normal tendency is to trade up to the high of the inefficiency, perfect delivery, and then sell-off trades down into the shaded area.
- How the Nasdaq trades in August.
08:06 - The inefficiency of the S and P.
- The market is coloring outside the lines, and then it delivers aggressively, sending an efficiency trade off the consequent encouragement for the inefficiency.
- The London session is expected to support the idea of consolidation.
10:20 - High and low of the day.
- S and P divergence and inefficiency on the hourly chart. Nasdaq makes a higher high while e-mini s and p is unwilling to make a high high.
- Buy/sell liquidity pool.
12:37 - The bearish breaker candle.
- The biggest down-close candle and lowest close is the bearish breaker. It is the one with the lower low wicks, which is where the damage is done.
- The bearish breakers are always permitted to trade outside the lines, so it is important to do back-testing.
14:49 - Charts of the five minute chart.
- The five minute chart on the left hand side, where the s and p and the bearish order block trade up and down.
- The last hour trading aggressive run into it.
16:52 - You need to have a lot of understanding.
- You need to have these types of understandings, and it's not a one video one trick pony.
- There are three specific models that he teaches for free on his YouTube channel that are for the people that just need to know everything they want to know.
18:57 - I felt out of sync with the marketplace.
- Today, james felt that he was out of sync with the marketplace. He didn't feel like he was in tune with the market.
- How to annotate a chart.
- Today was a difficult day, and the speaker was having a hard time getting his footing.
- This is a month where you want to do a lot of study.
Transcript
1 | 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:29,250 | ICT: Welcome back, folks. quick little review on a Tuesday. So we're looking at the E Mini s&p on left hand side, this is our daily chart and the Nasdaq |
2 | 00:00:29,250 --> 00:00:42,600 | futures, daily chart on the right. Alright, so we have a down close day here trading to the low of this boss on a balance outside and efficiency here on the |
3 | 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:51,960 | s&p, I gotta tell you today was a little bit of a day where I wasn't willing to trust very much today. It's one of those things I was commenting on the last |
4 | 00:00:51,960 --> 00:01:01,050 | video, if you've been following me on my twitter spaces and the things I've been talking about, over the years, and in regards to the month of August, it's a |
5 | 00:01:01,860 --> 00:01:13,830 | very fickle month. Now doesn't mean you can't make money. Obviously, you see, I can make money on the month of August. But the point is this. It can be very |
6 | 00:01:13,830 --> 00:01:30,270 | frustrating waiting for the market to create solid market structure to lend well to a very high probability bias, a very obvious draw on liquidity. And today, |
7 | 00:01:30,450 --> 00:01:42,840 | we've created what is referred to as an outside day with a down close. So what that means is this day's high is higher than the previous day. And it's low is |
8 | 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:56,820 | lower than the previous day. So the range is outside of the previous day's range. It's also outside the range of the day prior to it. So over the last two |
9 | 00:01:56,820 --> 00:02:12,270 | days, prior to today's trading, the market has gone above and below. And we came down into the low this inefficiency here. What I want to see tonight in in the |
10 | 00:02:12,270 --> 00:02:29,250 | London session is do we make a move outside of this inefficiency. So if we trade outside of it, come back up and work inside of this wick. And or treat the low |
11 | 00:02:29,250 --> 00:02:39,720 | end of this imbalance as resistance and offer some displacements of the downside, I may entertain the idea of looking for an opportunity into the |
12 | 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:48,240 | consequent corrosion of this wick in any overzealous price delivery on the downside on the sell side will be below here. If you look at this low and this |
13 | 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:59,850 | low here, they're relatively equal. And then we have constant encouragement that wick as well. So I'm trying not to beat the drum too hard and loud. But it |
14 | 00:02:59,850 --> 00:03:13,980 | certainly looks like it might be warranted. You'd expect lower prices on es in that that. What changes this, it has to trade above the high of today. Some of |
15 | 00:03:13,980 --> 00:03:25,470 | our trading to 4520 Makes me consider you going into it looking for Long's again, prior to that I'm not really interested in going long. In fact, I'm |
16 | 00:03:25,470 --> 00:03:36,960 | really not trying to push the button too much this month, because August is, like I said, one of those months that are traditionally unfavorable in |
17 | 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:46,020 | comparison to other months of the year. Meaning that yes, you're going to see fluctuations, yes, you're going to see displacements, you'll see nice little |
18 | 00:03:46,020 --> 00:03:55,200 | price runs here and there. But by far and large, it's one of those months that it's a hit or miss. And when it's not really trying to deliver for you, or give |
19 | 00:03:55,200 --> 00:04:08,040 | you opportunities that set up low risk, high probabilities in terms of success. It's better in my opinion, especially as an educator to try to sway you into |
20 | 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:18,990 | thinking about doing less during this month. The NASDAQ on the right hand side. We can see here, this long wick consequent encouragement which is midpoint and |
21 | 00:04:18,990 --> 00:04:29,820 | that we treat wicks like gaps. And the midpoint of the gap or inefficiency is consequent encroachment. We see a trade up into that today on a daily chart but |
22 | 00:04:29,850 --> 00:04:42,690 | it did not create an outside day on the NASDAQ. Compare and contrast. The outside day that was over here on the s&p versus the standard. Higher High, Low |
23 | 00:04:42,690 --> 00:04:56,040 | close and we have a swing low formed here. On es we don't have that. We have lower lows. We have relatively equal lows down in here. We also have mean |
24 | 00:04:56,040 --> 00:05:09,360 | threshold which is the waterblock midpoint which is Just below yesterday's low. So I'm going to look and see if that might, in fact, offer something. You know, |
25 | 00:05:09,390 --> 00:05:18,180 | when I wake up tomorrow, I obviously I don't stay up during the session anymore. But I'll be watching things. And when I get up, I usually get up around, I don't |
26 | 00:05:18,180 --> 00:05:27,240 | know anywhere between 530 and six. And then I take a look at the charts, and then I'll usually visit you on Twitter. But that'll probably be what we do |
27 | 00:05:27,330 --> 00:05:37,620 | tomorrow. And if there's anything that gets my attention, or has my interest, if you will, I'll send that by way of Twitter. All right, hourly chart here, on the |
28 | 00:05:37,620 --> 00:05:49,830 | left hand side, we have this area here, drop into this cells that are balanced by sudden efficiency. The bodies were just outside of the inefficiency, |
29 | 00:05:50,430 --> 00:06:01,290 | ultimately gave up the ghost overnight, wrote down. And this past surveillance, also efficiency act as an inversion of a gap. So if it's dropping down in here, |
30 | 00:06:01,740 --> 00:06:11,250 | the normal tendency is for anyone that might see this here and think well, yeah, I've seen some of those ICT videos, it looks like it's a buy there. It's not |
31 | 00:06:11,250 --> 00:06:25,140 | likely to do that if it's a bearish market. So we see it trade up to the high of that inefficiency. Perfect delivery. And then sells off. trades down into the |
32 | 00:06:25,140 --> 00:06:38,280 | shaded area in here. I'm gonna zoom in over here. Okay, you can see the date on the one hour chart where this inefficiency is anchored. Okay. And then the full |
33 | 00:06:38,280 --> 00:06:48,270 | range of that inefficiency on the higher timeframe. And its consequent encouragement, we see it trade down until it here today. Try to rally again. And |
34 | 00:06:48,270 --> 00:07:03,480 | then consolidated inside of that inefficiency. In an aggressive run to the low sell side resides down here around we'll call it 4412. So for the for 12 on the |
35 | 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:14,580 | s&p. If we're bearish, I like the idea of drawing down to that level. Our chart here on the right hand side for the NASDAQ can we see how we traded up into the |
36 | 00:07:14,580 --> 00:07:25,260 | last up close candle practiced displacement, lower inefficiency here, again, much like we had over here on the s&p, just outside of that range. And this is |
37 | 00:07:25,260 --> 00:07:34,680 | kind of what I'm referring to about August. Okay. You've seen many times, examples of me taking live trades, demo trades, calling things in advance on |
38 | 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:45,120 | Twitter or outlining them and analysis in videos to see what we would expect the next day. So there's obviously a means of predicting with a great deal of |
39 | 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:55,290 | precision, certain elements in price delivery. But I had to take a step back sometimes in August, because this is what it looks like sometimes, okay, when |
40 | 00:07:55,290 --> 00:08:04,260 | things are just a little bit out of focus a little bit more manipulation, the markets a little bit thinner, so they do a little bit more damage than they |
41 | 00:08:04,260 --> 00:08:15,540 | normally would. That's why we're seeing this inefficiency here. It's coloring outside the lines, and then it delivers aggressively. We have a cellphone |
42 | 00:08:15,540 --> 00:08:26,730 | unbalanced by sending an efficiency trade off the consequent encouragement here for the inefficiency here during today and aggressively dropped lower into this |
43 | 00:08:26,730 --> 00:08:36,870 | boss Annabelle started efficiency. Look at the respect around its consequent encouragement, Midpoint trades to the top look at the bodies here. This is |
44 | 00:08:36,870 --> 00:08:50,460 | telling you what the body's telling you the narrative. It confirms or denies an underlying delivery of buy side or sell side here. It's indicating that this |
45 | 00:08:50,460 --> 00:09:01,530 | candle is low. Even though we traded all the way down here. The bodies are respecting the high end of that old by Sanibel saw sign and efficiency here. So |
46 | 00:09:01,530 --> 00:09:13,050 | we're expecting this to act as what resistance except what an inversion Fairmount you got. Market delivers aggressively, trades below the rejection |
47 | 00:09:13,050 --> 00:09:22,050 | block which is the lowest down close price here in this swing. There sellside residing down here. So it'll be interesting to see again, if we can mount a |
48 | 00:09:22,050 --> 00:09:31,470 | continuation on the downside but I'd like to see the london session really support the idea of it not just you consolidation and then get the move later |
49 | 00:09:31,470 --> 00:09:41,580 | on. In the New York session, I want to see a little bit of movement lower. And there may be some kind of fear of a gap or retracement up in to a short term |
50 | 00:09:41,580 --> 00:09:55,110 | premium on a one minute or five minute chart that could set the stage for a run down into that 15 Zero 20 level. And this is a little too overzealous I think |
51 | 00:09:55,110 --> 00:10:07,980 | for for the s&p I think that made it made me take a little bit Longer than what the NASDAQ may require to get below here, this is a lot more of a range for s&p. |
52 | 00:10:10,950 --> 00:10:19,710 | But the inside, within a timeframe, again, you can see the market working inside that inefficiency, and where we are just outside the lines. |
53 | 00:10:20,820 --> 00:10:33,840 | And then we break lower. Look at the high here. And here, comparably. That same high, this high on the NASDAQ on the right side is directly related to this high |
54 | 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:44,790 | on E Mini s&p This high is in comparison to this high. So NASDAQ was able to make a higher high, whereas the E Mini s&p was unwilling to make that higher |
55 | 00:10:44,790 --> 00:10:56,100 | high. So we have s&p Divergence there. And this inefficiency on the hourly chart again, as I mentioned, when we're looking at the hourly timeframe, it ran up and |
56 | 00:10:56,100 --> 00:11:09,390 | hit that. And even though this inefficiencies outlined over the context of a one hour chart, we're at a 15 minute timeframe now so all of this changes when we |
57 | 00:11:09,390 --> 00:11:21,330 | drop down to a 15 minute timeframe. But keeping the higher timeframe in perspective. It doesn't negate the idea of the inefficiencies midpoint which is |
58 | 00:11:21,330 --> 00:11:32,160 | consequent encouragement to a hits it losses sensitivity they're also qualified and confirmed by SMT. So we did not see that higher high on E Mini s&p. So we |
59 | 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:43,050 | had a break lower this move below that last closed candle we opened trading right back up into that order block that is one of the strongest signatures |
60 | 00:11:43,050 --> 00:12:01,410 | you're gonna get and then immediate price delivery to the downside. And we have a ICT bearish Reaper high low higher high that means this is what ICT Reaper |
61 | 00:12:02,580 --> 00:12:15,210 | project it through, see that trade up into it here and lunchtime we have a gap trades lower attacks the sell side and reaches for the low end of that old |
62 | 00:12:15,210 --> 00:12:23,880 | inefficiencies shaded in blue. Right and on the right hand side we have a Buy Sell liquidity pool here that was in fact purged trades up into the efficiency |
63 | 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:38,430 | hourly sell side on a balanced by sign efficiency that consequent course when it trades to their bearish, I see rubber and order block. So we trade up into it. |
64 | 00:12:38,460 --> 00:12:49,470 | We have a breaker, you can see we are in fact, respecting that. So it's this candle right here. This candle right here that is the actual bearish breaker. |
65 | 00:12:49,860 --> 00:12:55,680 | Okay, so this down closed candle. Now why am I picking that one, and not anything else in here? Well, you don't want to use this one, even though it has |
66 | 00:12:55,680 --> 00:13:06,660 | the lower low wicks are, again, where they do the damage. The bodies tell you the narrative. So the biggest down close candle and lowest close. That's this |
67 | 00:13:06,660 --> 00:13:15,180 | one right here. Okay, so that's my bearish breaker. If you take that range and highlight that take everything else off the charts I'm having here in terms of |
68 | 00:13:15,180 --> 00:13:25,320 | annotations on your 15 minute timeframe. If you take that and you apply it to here, on this candlestick, you'll see that the bodies are respecting this range |
69 | 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:35,550 | here. The wicks are permitted, they're always permitted to trade outside the lines because that's where the damage is. And this is why it's important that |
70 | 00:13:35,550 --> 00:13:44,070 | you do a lot of back testing so that we can see these types of things occurring. You get familiar with it and static chart format. And then when you eventually |
71 | 00:13:44,070 --> 00:13:50,760 | start doing tape reading that means not demonstrating that means not trying to get it a funded account challenge past. That means not trading with a live |
72 | 00:13:50,760 --> 00:14:01,950 | account. It means simply watching price action with no risk, no concern whether you're right or wrong. And you're reading these levels as it forms and in |
73 | 00:14:01,950 --> 00:14:11,370 | develops in real time. And you'll see when this candle opened here. At one point it was a full on bullish green candle up into this point. But referring back to |
74 | 00:14:11,370 --> 00:14:21,120 | that bearish breaker, you allow for that extra especially if we have a bearish order block and a Reaper here. So it's you're going to give it permission if you |
75 | 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:32,550 | will, in your analysis, the trade just outside what would otherwise be defined by the lines of this bearish breaker, you have a little bit higher premium |
76 | 00:14:32,550 --> 00:14:43,020 | arrays that it may want to visit. The fact that we close here on this candle would give me the trust that it would be willing to maybe reach up to that level |
77 | 00:14:43,020 --> 00:14:53,250 | but I'm gonna see it close back inside of the shaded area here and back inside of the range that would be here. We in fact see that and then all of a sudden |
78 | 00:14:53,250 --> 00:15:02,910 | the market continues and trades lower. This one here is a nice little cell sort of bounced by certain efficiency trades up until here for silver bullet and |
79 | 00:15:02,910 --> 00:15:15,240 | drops down in Texas sell side there as well. Finally moving into the five minute chart here on the left hand side, we have an inefficiency when the s&p and the |
80 | 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:25,500 | bearish order block, trade up into it, their displacement to the downside, this is where we trade back up into Reaper on the 15 minute time frame, heavy fair a |
81 | 00:15:25,500 --> 00:15:32,580 | gap there as well, in the form of some sort of bounce pass out of efficiency trades are out there, that would be a wonderful short for the lunchtime macro, |
82 | 00:15:32,580 --> 00:15:43,110 | meaning that it would attack the sell side in here. And we work down into it. And finally, the last hour trading aggressive run into it reaching into the low |
83 | 00:15:43,110 --> 00:15:55,260 | and that shaded area. Small little inefficiency, again, much like that one, we trade up into it. And we collect just outside the lines, but your stop would |
84 | 00:15:55,260 --> 00:16:07,980 | have to be here. And again, aggressive run down into the 1440 eights. NASDAQ on the right hand side. You see we had that consequent encroachment on the hourly |
85 | 00:16:08,130 --> 00:16:17,220 | imbalance displace into the downside. Fair Value got. It's not highlighted here, folks. That's the reason why I'm telling you about it. Because if I had |
86 | 00:16:17,220 --> 00:16:29,340 | everything on the chart, it would clutter the chart up. And I saw a comment in my videos. And it's a fellow I'm assuming it's a fella saying that all these |
87 | 00:16:29,340 --> 00:16:39,030 | things are confusing? Well, I would readily concede that if this is the first time you've seen this, it, it's going to be overwhelming, which is the reason |
88 | 00:16:39,030 --> 00:16:46,470 | why you can't learn my concepts in a boot camp type thing where you watch a couple of videos or a five minute trainer. And there it is. And it's the reason |
89 | 00:16:46,470 --> 00:16:55,770 | why my stuff is so precise, the accuracy and the ability to read price action before it happens. You need to have these types of understandings. And it's not |
90 | 00:16:55,770 --> 00:17:05,160 | a one video one trick pony in it, this explains everything for you. You know, I never promised it was going to be easy to learn, I promised you that you're |
91 | 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:14,760 | gonna have to work your ass off with me if you want to have the level of precision that I can teach you. But you don't need to go into this great length. |
92 | 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:24,810 | If you wanted to simply look for something that's easy to follow. It's rule based, that's the silver bullet trade. And it's the 2022 model. Those two models |
93 | 00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:34,590 | are easy. For trade optimal trade entry, there's three specific models that I taught for free, that are complete on this YouTube channel. When I'm doing |
94 | 00:17:34,590 --> 00:17:43,200 | mentorship, that's for the freaks, okay, that's for the people that just need to know everything. They want to know how they can trust holding on to a trade, |
95 | 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:51,450 | they want to know how to avoid taking the wrong fair value gap, and how to know when order flow is bullish or bearish and feel confident in holding the position |
96 | 00:17:51,960 --> 00:18:02,340 | when to hold for specific targets, you know that that type of level of understanding isn't going to come by a very short video series or one video. And |
97 | 00:18:02,340 --> 00:18:10,740 | it can't come in, in the capacity of a five minute or 10 minute video, it just can't be done, folks. Okay, I promise you that. There's this big movement that's |
98 | 00:18:10,740 --> 00:18:19,920 | out there trying to make and capitalize on the fact that I'm very long winded because I have a lot of experience. And I'm already condensing a lot of |
99 | 00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:35,190 | experience into small, small videos that you think are long. They're not. These are abbreviations to me. And you have to go through a lot of understanding to |
100 | 00:18:35,190 --> 00:18:45,690 | get to the degree of precision. And here's the thing consistency. Do you want to just be accurate once in a blue moon once in a while? Or do you want to be able |
101 | 00:18:45,690 --> 00:18:53,340 | to go into the marketplace know exactly what you're looking for. And when to avoid certain things that may have caused you or other traders that think they |
102 | 00:18:53,340 --> 00:19:03,750 | know how to do these things, cause them to lose. Like today, I felt that I was actually out of sync with the marketplace. I just didn't feel like I was in |
103 | 00:19:03,750 --> 00:19:10,590 | sync. I was looking at the dollar index, I was looking at Euro Dollar. I was looking at the E Mini s&p, I was looking at the NASDAQ and I was looking at the |
104 | 00:19:10,590 --> 00:19:21,990 | Dow and I just didn't feel in sync with the marketplace. So while I was able to take money out the marketplace in a real account $2,200 You can see that on my |
105 | 00:19:21,990 --> 00:19:35,580 | Twitter feed. I didn't feel like I was in tune with price. And it was very hard for me to focus. And once I actually exited the marketplace I wasn't interested |
106 | 00:19:35,580 --> 00:19:45,960 | in I was very thankful that I didn't participate anymore. So everything I'm showing you here this is all after. I guess it'd be like 11 o'clock in the |
107 | 00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:55,830 | morning. This is all observations I made after the fact. Okay, but I'm teaching you how to annotate your chart so that we can see what it was that would be |
108 | 00:19:56,070 --> 00:20:03,090 | gleaned useful in terms of your journaling and back testing and draw your eye on specific things that would be meaningful to you. |
109 | 00:20:03,150 --> 00:20:14,400 | I mentioned two or three things in live commentary on Twitter, for NASDAQ, and they were helpful today. And it was, you know, obviously presented in the |
110 | 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:23,730 | context of tweets. But the NASDAQ here you can see we traded up into that bearish order block inside of the bearish Reaper. And the bodies are respecting |
111 | 00:20:23,730 --> 00:20:37,410 | that lower inefficiency. Bodies are starting right here at it. And then they have a small little gap there, trades up into here. And then works lower order |
112 | 00:20:37,410 --> 00:20:47,370 | block that's not annotated, I'm just giving you additional things you can add a new chart, and then displacement again below these lows in efficiency, and it's |
113 | 00:20:47,370 --> 00:20:54,660 | it's a fear of a gap in the formula city cells that are balanced by sound efficiency. This is the two to three o'clock ICT Silverbolt pm session, I did |
114 | 00:20:54,660 --> 00:21:03,630 | not trade the pm session, the market traded up into it here going into the last hour of trading. And then we aggressively worked lower attacking the sell side |
115 | 00:21:03,630 --> 00:21:16,830 | here. So if you felt like this is a difficult day, or felt like you were just having a hard time getting your footing. I felt that way today to admittedly I |
116 | 00:21:16,830 --> 00:21:25,860 | don't know if it's because I had my niece here today visiting I don't know if it was because like I mentioned on Twitter, I was listening to my new boxer |
117 | 00:21:25,860 --> 00:21:36,750 | puppies, give my wife a hard time. And I just couldn't focus. And I'd like to believe I would have been able to take that silver bullet here in the afternoon, |
118 | 00:21:36,750 --> 00:21:46,410 | I'd like to believe I was capable of obviously doing that with my Live account. But I didn't participate any further than outside whatever I shared today. And I |
119 | 00:21:46,410 --> 00:21:57,990 | don't know what we'll have tomorrow. But I'm not trying to inspire you to trade. I want you to think about what I said, you know, going into this month, this is |
120 | 00:21:57,990 --> 00:22:06,300 | a month where you want to basically do a lot of study. And that's why I'm trying to do a video each day. To remind you of that. I want you to think about |
121 | 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:21,750 | abstaining. not participating in this keep your powder dry, if you will, which is an expression for not taking shots at anything. Just observe and study and |
122 | 00:22:21,870 --> 00:22:30,990 | keep the availability of your funds, your mental capital because you you don't want to wear yourself out this month, you know, in the type of price action that |
123 | 00:22:30,990 --> 00:22:42,990 | these August months can provide you. They could wear you down. And then when the markets get a lot better, like in September and October, November. You may not |
124 | 00:22:42,990 --> 00:22:52,380 | be psychologically and emotionally equipped to participate when it's better. Or you may not even have your accounts because you probably roasted them and blown |
125 | 00:22:52,380 --> 00:23:02,070 | them in August. So it's very important to keep that in mind. So if we found this one insightful, and I will touch base with you tomorrow, until then, be safe |