ICT YT - 2023-08-12 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Market Review and August Trading Concerns
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-08-12 18:11
Outline
00:20 - Introduction to this week's price action.
- Review of this past week's action looking at the dollar indexes and weekly chart up dixie.
- Buy side liquidity and buy side liquidity about relative equal highs and sell side.
02:03 - Weekly Dollar Index chart.
- Moving lower for the chart on the dollar index, working on the old daily fair value gap trading up into the two down close candles.
- Weekly chart on dollar index.
04:06 - Weekly inversion fair value gap and consolidation.
- The market turns on a dime, trades lower back into the old weekly inversion fair value gap.
- The four hour chart from daily market breaks aggressively lower, trading back down into the weekly invert fair valuegap and consolidation all through the month of August.
06:43 - Weekly Dollar Index hourly chart.
- Focus moving forward, assuming that we continue moving higher on dollar index.
- Weekly chart of e mini s and p on the left hand side and nasdaq on the right hand side.
- August is the month where the market becomes very fickle. Take a vacation from everything, especially if you are a trader.
- August is a month that you want to stand aside on.
10:24 - The down close candle and propulsion block.
- The weekly chart on the right hand side of the Nasdaq shows a down close candle and a bullish order block.
- Nasdaq has been a performer on the upside in recent months, but is starting to see signs that now Nasdaq is leading to the downside.
12:38 - Sell side delivery and attacking the low.
- Two weeks ago, the weekly low trade up into it, and then power three, sell-side delivery and attacking the short term low, but not the same measure of running of the sell side on the e-mini s and p.
- Take note of the SMT divergence.
14:56 - A bearish order block on efficiency.
- The move from the repricing of cells out of balance by selling efficiency trading up to efficiency, trading up, to here, the last close candle right in here, is a bearish order block.
- The four hour chart e mini s and p on the left hand side.
- This is something you do not see a lot in 30 years in a well-structured, loose, well- structured marketplace.
- This is a lot of nimbleness.
19:18 - Market Trade Overview.
- The market trades aggressively lower today, but it had a lot of give and take back and forth.
- The low on the candle is 4459, the high is 4457, and the low is 4458. This is one of those classic descending ranges.
21:31 - The current state of the market.
- Trading into the consequent quotient on the blue shaded area. The previous day's high was taken out and moving lower, preventing short-term traders from staying in the market.
- The one hour chart.
23:55 - The most unfavorable price action in august.
- August is going to be probably some of the most unfavorable action, and even if it does present something, it becomes easy for you to see the setups.
- Be careful. Be careful.
- If you have a drawdown in your account, don't be in a rush to start back up. Wait until September.
- Try to ignore the temptation to get in there right now.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:20,670 --> 00:00:35,640 | ICT: Welcome FX, short little review and lecture on this past week's price action. Looking at the dollar indexes or weekly chart up Dixie, see we can |
| 2 | 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:46,050 | download the relative equals here sell. So I was taking Cohen's go, mark as drawn up originally, I had some interest in both of these discount wicks, |
| 3 | 00:00:46,110 --> 00:00:57,210 | consequent punishment midpoint of each one of these wicks. And traveling higher, and there's nothing in here in terms of an imbalance or inefficiency, my |
| 4 | 00:00:57,210 --> 00:01:09,300 | interest resides in what would be considered the buy side, liquidity about these relative equal highs. And we'll see if we get that going forward. daily chart |
| 5 | 00:01:09,300 --> 00:01:20,400 | here, you can see now inside of that decline, that took up the sell side, we had a rally up in here, if you're about to get some analysis on efficiency, trades |
| 6 | 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:33,450 | down to it here, rise up and then reuses, an old fear of a gap. So it comes down and accumulates new long positions and trades up into the fair value gap sell |
| 7 | 00:01:33,450 --> 00:01:43,050 | side amounts by time and efficiency. These relatively equal highs, I like the idea of it potentially trading up into that. But that all changes if we lose |
| 8 | 00:01:43,650 --> 00:01:58,950 | these lows, and work down into the old level that was a sell side defined over here. So I'm bullish on dollar presently, so I would expect some weakness on |
| 9 | 00:01:59,460 --> 00:02:14,400 | indices and continuation on forex. Moving lower. For our chart on Dollar Index, okay, we see again, working on that old daily fair value got trading up into the |
| 10 | 00:02:14,820 --> 00:02:21,210 | two down close candles here, which is a bullish order block. Small little bison imbalance outside inefficiency here, I don't have that negative. So I'm gonna |
| 11 | 00:02:21,210 --> 00:02:30,300 | keep the chart clean, with trade down into here. So we have order block a fair value gap, trades up into just fall short notice it gets just so close to the |
| 12 | 00:02:30,300 --> 00:02:40,260 | very high of the imbalance. And again, this is defined on the daily chart. So even if you're using this inefficiency here, we still didn't get to that either. |
| 13 | 00:02:40,650 --> 00:02:50,910 | So we have a small measure of by side liquidity here that it did, in fact, engage on Friday. But I'm looking for continuation on the upside, one hour chart |
| 14 | 00:02:50,910 --> 00:03:00,090 | on Dollar Index. Again, here's that barbell society efficiency, and the Orbach that we just showed on the four hour chart and a little bit more detail now. So |
| 15 | 00:03:00,090 --> 00:03:14,490 | we had 12345, lower lows, digging into the consequent encouragement, which is the midpoint between this hourly candles low and this hourly candle high, split |
| 16 | 00:03:14,490 --> 00:03:23,340 | them half at 2% of that range. That is consequent encouragement, trains down into that two times and then rallies aggressively reaching for the buy side here |
| 17 | 00:03:23,370 --> 00:03:36,480 | by side over here and then almost completely closing in and repricing to the high of that inefficiency that shaded here in pink. Moving on over to Euro |
| 18 | 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:47,370 | dollars is our weekly chart. And I want to count you to go back and look at the other previous weeks that did earlier. I think in the first part of July, in |
| 19 | 00:03:47,370 --> 00:03:58,770 | latter portions of may and going into June of this year. So on the YouTube channel, I mentioned how this volume imbalance was a draw on liquidity, meaning |
| 20 | 00:03:58,770 --> 00:04:06,930 | that the price for Eurodollar would want to gravitate up into that and we did in fact see that look at the reaction there. You don't see that in your textbook. |
| 21 | 00:04:06,930 --> 00:04:20,010 | So the so the market turns on a dime, trades lower back into the old weekly inversion fair value gap. Now, I don't think this is something to be all excited |
| 22 | 00:04:20,010 --> 00:04:28,950 | about in terms of being a buyer or turning bullish my interest is do we get below the weekly inversion fair value gap the shaded area here do we get below |
| 23 | 00:04:28,950 --> 00:04:37,590 | that treated as resistance and dig into the sell side here and then repriced to this discount weekly fair value gap so I like the idea of that potentially |
| 24 | 00:04:37,590 --> 00:04:51,120 | continuation lower on Euro dollar and then the continuation higher on Dollar Index daily chart Euro dollar, okay, here's that weekly volume imbalance. Look |
| 25 | 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:59,970 | at the beautiful precision there. small, little tiny Mohawk above the level here we expect that type of deviation outside of the range that's defined for a |
| 26 | 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:10,560 | inefficiency being repriced to breaks lower creates a breakaway gap here are trades up to here and here both institutional or full entry drill again, |
| 27 | 00:05:10,590 --> 00:05:20,070 | institutional order flow entry drills are a trading into a fair value gap, but not even to the midpoint which is consequent curtailment. So just a partial |
| 28 | 00:05:20,070 --> 00:05:28,080 | little entry into it, and then aggressive movement out of it. So that's institutional differential drill, trades aggressively lower trading back down |
| 29 | 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:36,720 | into the weekly inversion, fair value gap and consolidation all through the month of August, trades back up to the last up close candle here prior to this |
| 30 | 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:47,460 | displacement, bearish order block and then we've seen price move back down into the weekly inversion fair value again, the sell side residing below here and |
| 31 | 00:05:47,490 --> 00:06:02,640 | below here. Eurodollar for our chart, okay, here's that institutional order flow entry trail, seen on the four hour chart from daily market breaks aggressively |
| 32 | 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:11,790 | lower. We have a city here sometimes balanced by some inefficiency, we repriced back up into it, consolidate in here and then break lower trade down into that |
| 33 | 00:06:11,790 --> 00:06:22,410 | weekly inversion fair value gap. Treat to the high of the inversion fair value gap as support here trades back down in swipes the sell side, then distribution |
| 34 | 00:06:22,410 --> 00:06:36,360 | to relative equalize whereby side would be wrestling, bearish order block trades down city, but also more specifically, balanced price range up, down, treats it |
| 35 | 00:06:36,450 --> 00:06:46,830 | as such, and then trades down aggressively back into the weekly inversion fair value gap. My focus is over here. Going forward assuming that we continue moving |
| 36 | 00:06:46,830 --> 00:06:58,470 | higher on Dollar Index. Your dollar hourly chart again, jump into that bearish order block. Look at all these relative equal highs here. I tweeted this. |
| 37 | 00:06:58,890 --> 00:07:11,760 | Earlier in the week I mentioned that this was too obvious. And we did in fact, right up into that. And once we got to the bearish order block, and rejected, |
| 38 | 00:07:12,090 --> 00:07:23,370 | everything started moving lower with a higher dollar institutional order for entry drill here. So we have a sippy one candle, penetrating into that fair |
| 39 | 00:07:23,370 --> 00:07:33,090 | value gap between this candles low this candles high, small little partial entry. And then aggressive short sell off and we have an up close candle prior |
| 40 | 00:07:33,090 --> 00:07:42,240 | to the discount range of the weekly inversion fair value gap trades up into that candle there. That's a very shorter book trades lower now when it's |
| 41 | 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:50,820 | consolidating, so keep your eye on this low. And these lows over here to the low the weekly inversion fair value gap. And then should we get animated to the |
| 42 | 00:07:50,820 --> 00:07:58,740 | downside. And again, this is supported by a bullish dollar. We don't see that continuation or the order flow being bullish on Dollar Index, it's gonna be hard |
| 43 | 00:07:58,740 --> 00:08:12,420 | to do what I'm outlining here, but my attention down here below that 108 35 ish level. Alright, moving on into the weekly chart of both the E Mini s&p On the |
| 44 | 00:08:12,420 --> 00:08:20,460 | left hand side and on the right hand side, it's the Nasdaq futures. Both delivery contracts are September 2023. On the left hand side, we'll start with |
| 45 | 00:08:20,460 --> 00:08:29,430 | the s&p. So suppose we had a rally up. And then we turned into an inefficiency. And we've been monitoring that I'll count you to go back and look at the |
| 46 | 00:08:29,430 --> 00:08:41,160 | previous market reviews. It's all there for your enjoyment and edification, the break lower, we traded below this gap here. So this would have been normally a |
| 47 | 00:08:41,190 --> 00:08:53,310 | bullish discount fair value gap. But not once we reach a higher timeframe, weekly inefficiency, and we see this type of breakdown. And and here's the |
| 48 | 00:08:53,310 --> 00:09:00,240 | important thing. seasonal tendency. We're in the month of August, and I counseled you before we even started this month. This is the month you want to |
| 49 | 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:06,840 | take a vacation from everything. Okay? And especially if you're a trader, you don't want to push it really hard. I've done a lot of damage to myself with real |
| 50 | 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:15,810 | money doing that type of thing. And I counsel you as my students to try to respect that measure recipe is is that the month where it becomes very fickle, |
| 51 | 00:09:15,990 --> 00:09:23,520 | okay, some days, the market can be very easy to read and other days it starts off like it's going to be very easy to see and watch and be participant in it. |
| 52 | 00:09:23,910 --> 00:09:35,070 | And then it just goes wonky. So maybe and I noticed some people on the social medias and doesn't necessarily mean they're my students. I've seen other people |
| 53 | 00:09:35,310 --> 00:09:42,180 | outside of my own community that have complained about how they got beat up and chopped up this this very month here. We're in August, and we're really |
| 54 | 00:09:42,180 --> 00:09:54,300 | technically not even halfway through it yet. So again, it's like a meat grinder. Okay, that's the closest analogy I can give you. There have been in my last 30 |
| 55 | 00:09:54,300 --> 00:10:04,770 | years of me being a part of the marketplace. The 30 years of experience of look Going back predominantly, August is a really just |
| 56 | 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:14,070 | a month that you want to stand aside on, just let it do what it wants to do. If you're going to be a day trader or short term trader just be very, very nimble. |
| 57 | 00:10:14,610 --> 00:10:21,510 | But you certainly don't want to try to do a funded account challenge in the month of August, you don't want to try to do your biggest leverage tight trades |
| 58 | 00:10:21,510 --> 00:10:30,660 | on the month of August because it can hurt you. And we'll talk more about that as we go. But we have the propulsion block, and I've talked about this in the |
| 59 | 00:10:30,660 --> 00:10:38,250 | previous discussions over the indices, but we have a down close candle here, which is an order block, and then you have another down close candle that was |
| 60 | 00:10:38,550 --> 00:10:47,850 | beating into this one here, but only to the halfway. If we ever see half of the propulsion block, which is an order block that digs into a previous order block, |
| 61 | 00:10:48,510 --> 00:10:59,880 | you have to define half of the propulsion block. Okay, if we close below that, which we don't see that here, that would become extremely bearish. Nor we would |
| 62 | 00:10:59,880 --> 00:11:09,600 | abandon any bullishness over here, I wouldn't look at this as a reclaim. Bullish order block later on, it would be me anticipating it's going to trade lower. Now |
| 63 | 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:15,750 | I'm going to tip my hand to you and tell you that I think that this is going to happen anyway, going into next week that we're going to probably dig into the |
| 64 | 00:11:15,750 --> 00:11:23,730 | sell side. That's what my personal belief is. Even though we did not even trade to mean threshold of this propulsion blah. You want to know more about |
| 65 | 00:11:23,730 --> 00:11:34,560 | propulsion blocks there in my month for content of the mentorship core content lessons on my YouTube channel. I'll teach you the pdra matrix where I'm teaching |
| 66 | 00:11:34,560 --> 00:11:42,450 | you the basics. Alright, moving on over to the weekly chart on the right hand side, NASDAQ, this down close candle and this down close candle I don't like |
| 67 | 00:11:42,450 --> 00:11:51,660 | this type of structure versus this area, this is a little bit more defined a little cleaner, meaning that the down close candle here to start the bullish |
| 68 | 00:11:51,660 --> 00:12:01,230 | order block, then the propulsion block which goes into essentially half of that candle this down. We don't have so much of that here. It goes a little bit past |
| 69 | 00:12:01,350 --> 00:12:11,130 | midpoint here. So when it happens to be like that, and then we have fair value gap, these are more prone to fail. Okay, so the market trades down digs in |
| 70 | 00:12:11,130 --> 00:12:19,770 | through it here. And also notice that the NASDAQ was a lot weaker. Now, in recent months, NASDAQ has been the performer on the upside. And we've been |
| 71 | 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:27,510 | calling that before the fact anyway. But here we're starting to see signs that now NASDAQ was leading to the downside. We'll have more details about that in |
| 72 | 00:12:27,510 --> 00:12:39,120 | recent price action. But the last up close candle here or this displacement here is a bearish order block. We've seen that trade up into that this week. Two |
| 73 | 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:48,660 | weeks ago, those weekly low trade up into it. And then we have power three, which is sell side delivery and attacking the short term low here on this |
| 74 | 00:12:48,660 --> 00:13:02,580 | particular trading week. We did not get that same measure of running of the sell side on the E Mini s&p Notice that so we're seeing a reluctance on the part of |
| 75 | 00:13:02,580 --> 00:13:13,890 | the s&p to want to go as low and as fast as NASDAQ. So that is a characteristic or signature that indicates that if you're a bear, you better suited to trade |
| 76 | 00:13:13,890 --> 00:13:22,920 | short on the NASDAQ. And you see me doing majority of my trades, even the live trades, rather than showing examples up up in the NASDAQ. I think I've only done |
| 77 | 00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:34,350 | one or two s&p trades and should you live account executions. So I'm looking for a run here and make it real short and sweet. I'm seeing that that is potentially |
| 78 | 00:13:34,350 --> 00:13:42,270 | the draw on liquidity going forward over the next week or two. If we start to get animated, we have a boss and we also assign an efficiency down here, both |
| 79 | 00:13:42,390 --> 00:13:53,730 | here and here. Both are fair value gaps. How about a favor of the NASDAQ reaching it faster and sooner than that of the s&p on the left? daily chart E |
| 80 | 00:13:53,730 --> 00:14:03,780 | Mini s&p On the left hand side right away, you want to take note of the SMT divergence. Okay, look at your candles, compare all the highs here versus the |
| 81 | 00:14:03,780 --> 00:14:13,830 | highs up here. How they were diverging with one another NASDAQ was unwilling to make the higher high as we saw in the s&p. So that was that cracking correlation |
| 82 | 00:14:13,830 --> 00:14:22,680 | that we have an imbalance here the market trades up into it spent some time in that range and then finally breaks away this volume and bounce here in here. The |
| 83 | 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:31,500 | volume imbalance can act much like a breakaway gap. Okay, without stealing a lot of the thunder from the books I'm writing. And now it's a shameless plug. But |
| 84 | 00:14:31,500 --> 00:14:38,100 | there's a lot of detail that I want to save for the books because every time to teach or present something new, everybody comes out with a course or a |
| 85 | 00:14:38,100 --> 00:14:47,220 | mentorship and they conveniently omit me as the source where they learned it from and you really aren't learning everything that I'm introducing you briefly |
| 86 | 00:14:47,220 --> 00:14:55,710 | here, the books and or the core content lessons. They have to be studied your comprehensively, and then you'll have to better understand what it is I'm |
| 87 | 00:14:55,710 --> 00:15:05,790 | teaching. But all of this is introduction in my opinion. So we move from the repricing of the cells out of balance by selling efficiency trading up to here, |
| 88 | 00:15:06,300 --> 00:15:15,540 | the last close candle right in here, I have that label as a bearish order block, because I'm considering it through the lens of a lower timeframe chart. So it's |
| 89 | 00:15:15,570 --> 00:15:25,470 | two things there, it's the high of this inefficiency. And it's an order walking lower timeframe. So even though don't get thrown off that this is the down |
| 90 | 00:15:25,470 --> 00:15:33,600 | closed candle, the highest one, but it's supposed to be an up close candle that makes a bit shorter block on the lower timeframes. That's where we're the anchor |
| 91 | 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:44,460 | to market breaks lower, takes up the short term low here. So we have a shift in market structure right here. This is your model 2022. Right there, bear shorter |
| 92 | 00:15:44,460 --> 00:15:55,020 | block, last up close candle. So there's several factors in there. Also, breaker high, low, higher high trades of into there and breaks lower up close candle |
| 93 | 00:15:55,050 --> 00:16:02,880 | while in a sell program. Very, very influential in terms of price action mean threshold to the low and the opening price of that is gonna be very, very |
| 94 | 00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:12,210 | sensitive study all those level that has mentioned to you. And you'll see that we traded up into it here, here and aggressive move lower taking out the sell |
| 95 | 00:16:12,210 --> 00:16:21,390 | side there. And again, not seeing that same copper will run for the sell side on SFP. On the left hand side, we have a bi Sanibel sauce on efficiency this phire |
| 96 | 00:16:21,390 --> 00:16:34,140 | government which is a discount in the s&p and its consequent encroachment, which is half of the inefficiency or gap Hethel, an order block is a mean threshold. |
| 97 | 00:16:34,980 --> 00:16:44,250 | That's what's being shown here that is this up close candle here. But that's mean threshold, which is the abbreviation I have here m period T period. And you |
| 98 | 00:16:44,250 --> 00:16:54,300 | see the displacement After trading into that. Here, we don't have that run up in respect of the mean threshold of this bullish candle. It's running all the way |
| 99 | 00:16:54,300 --> 00:17:05,490 | back up to where here is the premium wick consequent encouragement. So half of that wick, we treat wicks just like gaps, that means it's halfway over midpoint |
| 100 | 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:16,290 | would be considered consequent encouragement. All right, moving on into the four hour chart E Mini s&p On the left hand side, here's a bearish order block. The |
| 101 | 00:17:16,290 --> 00:17:25,680 | trade up into here also repricing to inefficiency, which is a fair way to get in the form of a sell side unbalanced by sending efficiency, strong displacement |
| 102 | 00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:34,200 | lower taking out the low training backup. Now look at this price action here. Okay, this is something you do not see a lot in 30 years, I have not seen this |
| 103 | 00:17:34,650 --> 00:17:50,730 | five or six times, okay? It's very, very uncharacteristic of a loose, very well structured marketplace, we're seeing low, high, low, high, low, high, low, |
| 104 | 00:17:50,760 --> 00:18:03,180 | higher, high, low chopping of digging into the levels we're looking for. This is a lot of well, it requires nimbleness. Okay. And I've watched this week, a lot |
| 105 | 00:18:03,180 --> 00:18:14,880 | of social media, influencers, YouTubers, traders, pseudo gurus, whatever you want to call it, they were very, very hard pressed to want to go short, they |
| 106 | 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:24,960 | just were saying no. Now, anytime anybody would be suggesting that it's going lower, or that would hold a bearish stance, they would take the position of |
| 107 | 00:18:24,990 --> 00:18:36,090 | armwrestling Okay, and very argumentatively or sternly presenting the opposite. So that was one of the reasons why I focused primarily being on the short side |
| 108 | 00:18:36,090 --> 00:18:45,840 | of things this week. Also, I outlined that I thought we would go lower previous week anyway. This very gap year I mentioned this on a short little vignette |
| 109 | 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:52,650 | video, I put on my Twitter accounts, if you're not following me on Twitter, you should probably should do that. Because I'll give you let's say it's like |
| 110 | 00:18:52,650 --> 00:19:02,130 | guerrilla warfare tactics, if you don't know when I'm going to pop up and share something. And sometimes it is so short in terms of time, and right there at the |
| 111 | 00:19:02,130 --> 00:19:11,430 | time. It's only beneficial if you're following me on Twitter. But after November you want the robot to because I'm gonna be active on on Twitter after November |
| 112 | 00:19:11,430 --> 00:19:22,140 | this year in 2023. So this little fear of a gap here was part of that larger imbalance. And then we have the market trade in fact, now into that today. |
| 113 | 00:19:22,590 --> 00:19:33,960 | Notice the body's telling you the narrative, which is what I shared with this morning on Twitter. Here's your breaker of low, high, lower low. Take the buys |
| 114 | 00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:41,880 | the candle, look at the video share this morning. Draw it out in time and that's where you're seeing the narrative. It goes down. It goes through it. Where's it |
| 115 | 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:56,730 | going? Consequent encouragement of here this level is 445 9.25. Don't take my word for the low on this candle is 4459 Even or four four or five 9.00 |
| 116 | 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:08,310 | NASDAQ on the right hand side, bearish order block, trade up into it here, trade back up into mean threshold trade lower, you have a sell side bounce by sending |
| 117 | 00:20:08,310 --> 00:20:17,010 | efficiency here retrieved back up into it. And again, this is that mean threshold. Again, looking at the daily chart, we're transposing all those daily |
| 118 | 00:20:17,190 --> 00:20:27,420 | and weekly annotations to lower timeframes so that we don't lose sight of where we are. In the market trades aggressively down into the sell side. Here's what I |
| 119 | 00:20:27,420 --> 00:20:42,630 | mentioned also in the context of that, for our fair value gap. So the market traded aggressively lower here, but it had a lot of give and take back and |
| 120 | 00:20:42,630 --> 00:20:50,790 | forth, look at all this back and forth. Okay, now know, some of you are gonna be like, Oh, this is one of those classic descending trading ranges. Okay, that's |
| 121 | 00:20:50,790 --> 00:21:00,240 | fine. I'll give you that. But the point is, did you trade, the trade like that, because after the weak and you look at like this, it's easy to say that. So what |
| 122 | 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:06,660 | I'm doing is I'm showing you what I think is going to happen before it happens before the chart even shows any of that market structure that would be easily |
| 123 | 00:21:06,690 --> 00:21:17,190 | identified as Oh, here it is hindsight retail this or it's hindsight, something else, maybe on into the hourly chart on the E Mini s&p On the left hand side by |
| 124 | 00:21:17,190 --> 00:21:27,450 | side here, and in the premium wick consequent encroachment, our trades up into here aggressively breaks lower, and then Friday, and we have all this back and |
| 125 | 00:21:27,450 --> 00:21:35,760 | forth price action, but digging in to that for our fair value gap. And again, trading into that consequent quotient on that blue shaded area here. Okay, so |
| 126 | 00:21:36,990 --> 00:21:55,140 | once you take a look closely, every day, the previous day's high, was taken out. So we have around here by side, here by side by side here taken out and moving |
| 127 | 00:21:55,140 --> 00:22:08,250 | lower. So it was preventing was preventing anyone with a short term Traders Mindset or one shot one kill, we get on the rope nice key Hi, and then ride it |
| 128 | 00:22:08,250 --> 00:22:17,490 | out for the rest of the week. Looking for this type of move, that's fine. But they were not permitting anyone to stay in that. And yesterday on Thursday, we |
| 129 | 00:22:17,490 --> 00:22:29,010 | had that run up and then aggressive sell off. And then a little bit of a junky price action here on Friday but certainly tradable. One hour chart on the right |
| 130 | 00:22:29,010 --> 00:22:36,930 | hand side for NASDAQ very similar thing here we have sales on unbalanced bias on efficiency, we trade up into it here, taking by side relative equals units |
| 131 | 00:22:36,930 --> 00:22:48,990 | residing below that sell side and market careens through that backup into mean threshold of the bullish order block on the higher timeframe chart breaks lower |
| 132 | 00:22:49,020 --> 00:22:59,730 | take sell side. And it comes all the way back up on Thursday the blow out the high on the ninth Buy Sell liquidity then erodes and trades increase relatively |
| 133 | 00:22:59,730 --> 00:23:13,170 | close comes back up in consequent curtailment of this wick here sells off. Fair a gap here trades up into that breaks lower consolidation and announced our |
| 134 | 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:21,540 | opening up the commentary this morning on my Twitter feed. And I mentioned they would trade down into the four hour fair value gap. And I went to a very |
| 135 | 00:23:21,540 --> 00:23:32,100 | specific low and outlined the sulci liquidity. And that's what's been shown here. So I'll counsel you to go look at that as well. It dug down into that. And |
| 136 | 00:23:32,130 --> 00:23:42,600 | I wanted to go a little bit further into the fair a gap. But those were the breaks apparently didn't do too much lower than that 15 minute timeframe on left |
| 137 | 00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:57,570 | hand side E Mini s&p, you can see how we had a rather sloppy consolidation day here. And same thing with the NASDAQ. So I'm going to close with a couple things |
| 138 | 00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:11,520 | of importance. We have a few weeks remaining for August, this is going to be probably some of the most unfavorable price action. And even if it does present |
| 139 | 00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:21,630 | something it's really clean in price delivery, and it becomes easy for you to see the setups in post me making this commentary. And I've had this happen |
| 140 | 00:24:21,630 --> 00:24:31,440 | before not a lot. But most, most of the time when I say something like you know, be careful. It's pretty spot on where you if you listen to me, you you would |
| 141 | 00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:42,060 | have spared yourself. There's been a few times where I've said things like this and then it becomes just really nice. Mark conditions, but that's not normal. |
| 142 | 00:24:42,210 --> 00:24:50,430 | Okay, August is one of those months where we're just getting ready to start the fall months where the market comes really nice. September October, November. |
| 143 | 00:24:50,430 --> 00:24:59,370 | Maybe the first week may be the second week of December. If you're hard pressed to want to trade around the holidays. That's one of the sweetest times of the |
| 144 | 00:24:59,370 --> 00:25:10,200 | year to trade Just like it is in the springtime. So you don't want to waste your gunpowder, you know, on the next couple of weeks here in August, to sit still |
| 145 | 00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:18,150 | relax, let the markets do what they're going to do. And they may chop around a lot like this in the month of August. That's what I anticipated. This is this |
| 146 | 00:25:18,150 --> 00:25:24,720 | kind of stuff I was warning you about, even though they're delivering to where I was pointing to. And every one of us my students know that we were looking for |
| 147 | 00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:34,740 | lower prices, and where we thought it was gonna go to it went to, it wasn't the easiest price action to trade with. And if you felt like it was harder, that's |
| 148 | 00:25:34,740 --> 00:25:42,390 | good that you observed that. And now have you experienced it. And with this new level of experience, you can appreciate now more what it was I was trying to |
| 149 | 00:25:42,390 --> 00:25:51,870 | warn you about. If you've caused drawdown in your account, if you have blown your account, challenge, whatever it is you're trying to get funded account. |
| 150 | 00:25:52,530 --> 00:26:05,910 | Don't be in a rush to start back up, wait until September. Okay, just try to ignore the temptation want to get in there right now. Traditionally, the month |
| 151 | 00:26:05,910 --> 00:26:13,680 | of August is a sloppy type of month. And it's a lot of big money on the sidelines. And when that big money's not in marketplace, you're gonna get this |
| 152 | 00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:23,970 | type of action here. Can you trade it? Yes. Will you be stressed out probably trading, it probably will you lose more times than you'll want to be comfortable |
| 153 | 00:26:24,030 --> 00:26:32,490 | in other better months where your trading is a little cleaner, you're probably going to lose more. And if you're not equipped to handle that, it can be very |
| 154 | 00:26:32,490 --> 00:26:40,560 | stressful may cause you to be impulsive. I've done this to myself. I've done this. You've heard it many times in my lectures and in my teachings. And that's |
| 155 | 00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:51,660 | why I teach you the way I teach you because I've done this to myself, and losing when you know, especially if you have a historical record of seeing how it was |
| 156 | 00:26:51,660 --> 00:27:00,030 | harder for you which you'll learn how to do that by journaling. And this is a month where you want to do most of your prep work, what your goals are going to |
| 157 | 00:27:00,030 --> 00:27:11,220 | be for the Fall going into then the year where are you in terms of your growth for this year, and try to spend more time learning and refining and how to be |
| 158 | 00:27:11,220 --> 00:27:19,770 | more organized in your annotations, your timeframe management, all those types of things. So it's a good time to go through your notes about what it is you've |
| 159 | 00:27:19,770 --> 00:27:31,020 | taken from my videos, revisit those notes, study, but relax. When we start in September, the markets will be a lot better. There's gonna be a whole lot more |
| 160 | 00:27:31,020 --> 00:27:40,290 | volatility going into September October November and that's one of the best times to be part of the price action. You we'd like to be participants in |
| 161 | 00:27:46,290 --> 00:27:51,330 | so hopefully found this one insightful. Talk to you next time. Be safe |