ICT YT - 2023-07-27 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - July Fed Rate Tape Reading
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-08-12 17:24
Outline
00:00 - Intro to the chart.
- Sorry for the tardiness, obs was acting up, but hopefully they won't cause any more issues while studying live.
- Check twitter to see if the chart is on Nasdaq in September.
- It's a 62nd lag, not sure why it's set to the lowest latency, not that it really matters. You shouldn't be trading this today.
- Nasdaq 50 minute time frame.
04:30 - How the market reaches for liquidity and behaves afterwards.
- It starts the real move. There is an initial move at two o'clock and then it just consolidates after a bunch of little whipsaw movement at 230.
- If it's the first time you've ever watched something like this live, it's probably very obvious why you shouldn't trade ahead of it.
- The two reactive points, 50,006 40 and 15,004 83, and how they react after trading to either of them.
- The most likely draw on liquidity and the indecisive liquidity.
- If it rejects all of this and runs lower than this scenario, then 30 might still be in contention, but there is simply not enough to go on.
- The worst case scenario is that the real move is going to be a freight train and who knows where it will go.
12:46 - Know what to look for.
- One of the things that his students have been with him for a long time is that they know what he's looking for when it's there, but if it's not, you have to be comfortable with that and know when to sit still.
- The range between the height and the low.
- This should be a balanced range, not in an event where the market is reaching for liquidity, and it's also unsettling, which is the whole premise behind rate announcements.
- There has to be more to why the market should go higher, not just because there's a down close candle.
- The only two things that can happen or consolidate the market are a rate hike or a consolidation. The other two things are manual intervention.
- The market is limited to two ranges of liquidity, the 640 and the 43, and is not convinced one way or the other.
22:30 - Being responsible as an influencer.
- He tries to be very responsible as a mentor and influencer. He wants his influence to end come November.
- He will be trading, but he won't be doing things like this come november. His youtube channel, twitter account, etc, will remain active.
- Watching the subsequent execution, which is the midpoint of this chart, to see if there will be a lot of whipsawing on this chart.
- Live execution in twitter feed.
- The initial run now, and whether it went down a lot or if it went up a lot more for the buy side than the sell side.
- The two stage development and delivery.
29:51 - The right hand of the magician.
- He's the right hand of the magician, and you're watching him, where the sleight of hand is being done on the left hand.
- You never see it coming.
- Non-farm payroll Fridays are a good time to put yourself in a position of discomfort.
- One of the setups that may not be wanted right now.
- Check in on the 335 london session by sight tag, and how the net is buffering and the audiocast is breaking.
- The 50% level or subsequent encouragement on the candle.
37:49 - How to use this information to frame your trading.
- How he uses this information to frame a bias and get context on what he would like to show as a parameter in his analysis.
- How 15% of traders are going to try to do something with real money or funded account and not know how to navigate.
- The easiest straightforward answer to people who are afraid that more people will learn it.
- The chasm between someone looking at a video and actually going out and doing it.
- I don't need 30 people to tell me that the video audio and such is breaking up. Other people tweeting to me doesn't have what he wants.
46:44 - Selling interest in shaded area.
- Check if there's any interest in the top of the shaded area, all the way to three o'clock in new york.
- Take note of where the bodies of the candles are.
- Take out the swing high and try to grab the backup in here. Anyone trying to sell short would need to beat it by 345.
- Draw for today is today's close.
54:10 - Where's the best exit for short sellers?
- We are interested in 640 this morning to see if it is sensitive and if it wants to get to the 40% level going into close.
- The 50% level.
- The short-term high and long-term low in the short term, and the short- term high and low, and how they reacted to it.
- How the market reacted.
01:11:09 - How do we get out of this market?
- I don't think they're going to make a higher high, and I don't want to see it trade above half way of this shaded area.
- The speaker is trying to keep the rhythm and not get a read on what it wants to do here, not a lot ofmethylation.
- The audio keeps buffering.
01:24:57 - What keeps me from trading on a day like this?
- High-end equipment, youtube, etc, comes to you in a substandard manner that's not your doing.
- What keeps him from trading on a day like this, the things he pointed to here that he would expect to see in the market, not being manipulated or pushed around artificially.
- The speaker is not trying to gamble today. He wants to see if the market is going to trade up into the gap and see if it will get to the midpoint of the price range.
- The speaker was with his son, cameron, who was living all over the place.
- He realized he didn't need to figure out what non-farm payroll will do on this day. He can find his models on all the other days of every single month and seasonal tendencies.
- He's always said, don't try to trade on these days, because precision will evade you.
01:33:24 - Trading is like a sniper denying risk.
- Trading is like being a sniper, waiting for the one mark to walk into their crosshairs, and knowing that that shot has to make an impact on the target.
- Growing pains are never fun. You think you're going to figure it out and know what to do every time, but you don't appreciate the magnitude.
- You will see all kinds of things in here, even if it wasn't obvious at the time, but you can see it now.
- The total range here is nothing in terms of volatility.
- Learn not to be interested in doing this as a live trading day, that is the main takeaway.
- When he was 20, he took it as a warning sign that he was offside or it's not performing like he wanted it to, like everyone else.
01:40:55 - Don’t touch the information after the fact.
- Don't touch it, just use the information after the fact. Don't be surprised if it goes higher or lower.
- The best thing to do is explain to you how he's going to treat it tomorrow. He's not going to get up and see what London's doing.
- How he gets up in the morning, and what he does to prepare for the day, and how he deals with his own limitations.
- The importance of identifying limitations.
- You have to be responsible and know where you are going to excel and where your edge and best trading conditions are.
- The importance of journaling to learn and grow.
Transcript
| 1 | 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:48,180 | ICT: You afternoon folks sorry for my tardiness OBS was acting up so hopefully they won't cause any more issues while we're studying live Sorry, I have to put |
| 2 | 00:00:48,180 --> 00:00:57,870 | these types of things in here because a lot of people out there don't take my video and upload it to their social media and pretend it's them and in the |
| 3 | 00:00:57,870 --> 00:01:09,420 | business Alright, so we're gonna check Twitter make sure you guys can hear me if you're a follower on my Twitter account it's give me a five by five if you can |
| 4 | 00:01:09,420 --> 00:01:14,640 | hear me and if the chart is on NASDAQ September contract 15. |
| 5 | 00:02:23,670 --> 00:02:39,900 | Saw my tweet saying it's a 62nd lag. Not sure why I've set the lowest one. Not that it really matters because you shouldn't be trading this today |
| 6 | 00:02:46,410 --> 00:02:46,950 | my tweet |
| 7 | 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:53,580 | is a bit of a lag isn't it |
| 8 | 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:08,010 | I want to send you a picture that we can see I do in fact have it set to the lowest latency |
| 9 | 00:03:25,050 --> 00:03:34,830 | now there's a lot of folks out there that like to make excuses for this that there's your to Azure proof that it's set to the lowest ultra low latency for |
| 10 | 00:03:34,830 --> 00:03:52,500 | whatever reason it's getting there slowly today, so it's not for lack of trying, I promise you. So anyway, let's get over here to the chart. Sure, my phone set |
| 11 | 00:03:52,500 --> 00:03:57,420 | to do not disturb goobers like to try to call me |
| 12 | 00:04:03,150 --> 00:04:10,380 | Alright, so here is the NASDAQ 50 minute timeframe. And I'm gonna go up to a daily just for a second |
| 13 | 00:04:27,540 --> 00:04:39,180 | then it meanders around a 230. It starts the real move. Okay, so it's not always like that. There's some times where it'll move and then move even more in the |
| 14 | 00:04:39,180 --> 00:04:49,230 | same direction. And other instances, but very much more rare, is where there'll be an initial move at two o'clock and then it just consolidates after a bunch of |
| 15 | 00:04:49,230 --> 00:04:59,730 | little whipsaw movement at 230. So that's why it's very important that you understand that anything that I comment today, please don't use it as a like a |
| 16 | 00:04:59,730 --> 00:05:06,480 | seek good handshake that I'm trying to tell you to buy or sell, because that's not what we're doing here today. But I want you to observe how the market |
| 17 | 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:15,930 | reaches for liquidity, how it behaves afterwards. And if it's the first time you've ever watched something like this live, it'll be probably very obvious why |
| 18 | 00:05:15,930 --> 00:05:17,220 | you shouldn't try to trade ahead of it. |
| 19 | 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:35,760 | I will toggle back and forth between, yes, and NASDAQ. I know some of you don't have access to those markets yet to trade the CFDs. For my focus, and for |
| 20 | 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:45,360 | brevity sake, I'm going to focus here, everything that you would see, in hindsight later on, compare and contrast the charts. That way, you can see how |
| 21 | 00:05:45,390 --> 00:05:58,320 | both delivered on the basis of this event at two o'clock and then 230. Right, so we have liquidity here. We've already hit the liquidity this morning, you watch |
| 22 | 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:09,180 | me do an execution on that there are relative equal highs here. That is a lot to get back up to. But you know, Stranger things have happened on days like this. |
| 23 | 00:06:09,810 --> 00:06:12,750 | So I want to break into the 15 minute time frame. |
| 24 | 00:06:21,870 --> 00:06:31,830 | And I mentioned this morning that the 640 level was to clean right in here. And that's that's what I would like to see happen, does it mean that's what I think |
| 25 | 00:06:31,890 --> 00:06:40,770 | is going to happen. And it's going to therefore be a trade idea for you to take No, I might get it wrong, just like a CPI. And you've watched me do I think two |
| 26 | 00:06:40,770 --> 00:06:48,720 | times where I've talked about CPI number ahead of time what I thought was going to happen and it was completely diametrically opposed after the news hit the |
| 27 | 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:55,950 | marketplace, and it just rolled aggressive the other direction, which is again, that's that's a freight train, you don't want to be in front of it. This is like |
| 28 | 00:06:55,950 --> 00:07:02,640 | a gambling, gambling session, you don't know where it's gonna go, I don't know where it's gonna go. And the fact that you're not gonna be able to get in and |
| 29 | 00:07:02,640 --> 00:07:11,670 | get out because brokers pool of liquidity. So it's not an absence of wanting to be a buyer or seller, it just means that they are doing their best to try to |
| 30 | 00:07:11,670 --> 00:07:21,630 | protect themselves, because a lot of you out there, get heavy handed with your bets. And sometimes you can get real lucky. And they don't want to expose |
| 31 | 00:07:21,630 --> 00:07:36,060 | themselves to that type of risk. So just 30 seconds to go. And then we'll see the first stage of the Fed event today. |
| 32 | 00:07:41,430 --> 00:07:52,110 | So the two reactive points is 50,006 40 and 15,004 83. Those are two price points I'm monitoring and what I want to see is how they react after trading to |
| 33 | 00:07:52,110 --> 00:07:57,990 | either one I don't care really which one it goes to because I'm not pushing the button. But I want you to see how fast it moves. |
| 34 | 00:08:25,830 --> 00:08:35,400 | Have the two o'clock, which is here. That means this this here. And then I will look forward to run to that level. And then best case scenario would be run for |
| 35 | 00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:50,430 | at 640, which was my interest this morning on Twitter. If it would have ran, and it still could, but it runs for the 15,006 40 level then I would look for at 230 |
| 36 | 00:08:50,580 --> 00:08:58,230 | Does it show a willingness to reject that entire move and run for the lows here and maybe gravitate towards this not that it wants to go here or will likely go |
| 37 | 00:08:58,230 --> 00:09:09,300 | there. We just are looking for a range to trade and an opinion okay, we're trying to ascertain the most likely draw on liquidity and right now it's |
| 38 | 00:09:09,300 --> 00:09:21,450 | indecisive. It's not really given us a whole lot to work with. At least it's not for me. I liked the fact that we went up into this cell Senate balanced by |
| 39 | 00:09:21,450 --> 00:09:31,530 | Senate efficiency. We overlapped this volume and bounced at two separated bodies here. If it rejects all this and runs lower than this scenario that I'm looking |
| 40 | 00:09:31,530 --> 00:09:37,740 | forward to 30 might still be in contention but right now there's simply not enough to go on |
| 41 | 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:54,540 | I can imagine some of you that are relatively new maybe you're used to watching Instagram guys talk about stuff that didn't happen and you're wondering why well |
| 42 | 00:09:54,540 --> 00:10:01,980 | why don't you trade in this why'd you why wouldn't you want to be a part of this is going to be a big mover the likelihood of you getting a good feel number one |
| 43 | 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:19,800 | is unlikely to the risks far outweigh the potential reward. You can easily hurt yourself. And I've done that to myself on days like this trying to be a cowboy |
| 44 | 00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:28,140 | over leveraging and trying to do things that Dick feeling. You think, Okay, well, it should have stopped me out and it just keeps rolling way past your stop |
| 45 | 00:10:28,140 --> 00:10:38,460 | loss. That's the risks. And that's, that's all part of that CFTC required disclaimer that people are talking about the marketplace, people that sell |
| 46 | 00:10:38,460 --> 00:10:46,560 | services or give signals or just even comments about the market. If you read those disclaimers, it talks about these various scenarios where there may not be |
| 47 | 00:10:46,560 --> 00:10:56,610 | an opportunity for you to get a fill. And it's not good when you're in a trade and it's going against you. There's nothing that you can do to fix it or remedy |
| 48 | 00:10:56,610 --> 00:10:56,730 | it. |
| 49 | 00:11:02,190 --> 00:11:12,000 | Okay, so I like the idea that we've taken these relatively equal lows out here. We sweat the rejection block here, if you look at the closing price on that |
| 50 | 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:26,580 | candle, if that's this up here, upper left hand corner. That closing price comes in at 15,005 35 and three quarters in the low. |
| 51 | 00:11:31,650 --> 00:11:45,330 | One handle less. So we went below that it's stayed off any lower prices initially here. I'm gonna see do we treat this here as a breaker? So we're gonna |
| 52 | 00:11:45,330 --> 00:11:55,440 | be watching this right in here, does it show sensitivity and want to trade above this high? Right there? If it does that, then we want to measure how much |
| 53 | 00:11:55,740 --> 00:12:10,350 | animation how much energy how much interest does price want to show towards going into that 640 level. Now the worst case scenario, if we don't break this |
| 54 | 00:12:10,350 --> 00:12:20,820 | high here, and we don't break this low, and it's like 215, eight minutes or so, then the real move is going to be turn 30. And it's going to be a freight train, |
| 55 | 00:12:20,850 --> 00:12:29,910 | and who knows where it's gonna go. So that's why it's important that you understand that this event is two stages. And it's imperative that you can at |
| 56 | 00:12:29,910 --> 00:12:41,130 | least try to figure it out what the initial run was. And right here, it's it's either or it's 5050. So 5050 is not a scenario that I want to go out there and |
| 57 | 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:49,560 | push a button on, I don't even want to give you a bias on that because it's not clear. So one of the things that my students that have been with me a long time, |
| 58 | 00:12:50,190 --> 00:12:58,320 | they know that I know what I'm looking for when it's there, I'm in charge, I'm all over like what a rice but if it's not, I'm sitting still. And you have to be |
| 59 | 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:06,210 | comfortable with that. And it's a skill set as you shouldn't be trying to acquire, knowing when to sit still knowing that okay, the price might move |
| 60 | 00:13:06,210 --> 00:13:16,620 | around, they might move a lot. But if you are not in it, that's not a losing trade. But to a neophyte, someone that's new, someone that has just got into |
| 61 | 00:13:16,620 --> 00:13:26,250 | this industry, or watched other people that may not be actually doing anything, their advice or their opinion about something or showing maybe fraudulent |
| 62 | 00:13:26,250 --> 00:13:36,780 | results, you might subscribe to their views on you should be trading on a day like this, or she you should already be in a position already. And I'm not a |
| 63 | 00:13:36,780 --> 00:13:50,100 | proponent that I don't I don't like that. I think that it's irresponsible. And it fosters the the wrong mindset about managing risk, which is what this whole |
| 64 | 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:58,350 | industry is about. It's not about making money, it's about making sure to have that high. Want to see speed above this high right here. |
| 65 | 00:14:03,810 --> 00:14:12,840 | Usually, when I'm doing in execution, this is when I'll type in I want to see large up close candles or large green candles incoming something to that effect. |
| 66 | 00:14:13,290 --> 00:14:22,560 | Once we get into this area here. The reason why is because I suspect that this area here is going to be used as a kind of like rocket fuel. That's that's what |
| 67 | 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:32,280 | I would kind of reach for in terms of with an analogy. They're going to use this area here to really speed up and run to 15 640. That would be my understanding |
| 68 | 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:42,420 | and my expectation. But if it fails to do that very thing there. That means we're going to probably hang around inside the range between the height forms |
| 69 | 00:14:42,420 --> 00:14:46,920 | here and the low here until we get to 230 which is not helpful. |
| 70 | 00:14:53,760 --> 00:15:01,500 | You might say, well, you know, what's the point of all this? And a new student or new trader would think that I mean, what's the point of all this? If you're |
| 71 | 00:15:01,500 --> 00:15:09,810 | gonna watch this and not do anything? Well, I'm teaching students that have never done this before. Or they don't have a skill set where they can trust how |
| 72 | 00:15:09,810 --> 00:15:19,470 | to read price action. What is it, you're looking for ICT? What? What Garner's your interest in a specific price run to a higher lower, buy side or sell side? |
| 73 | 00:15:19,980 --> 00:15:30,270 | What would negate a specific idea that you may like initially, but what cancels it? What, what makes it null and void. That's what I'm teaching you. And that |
| 74 | 00:15:30,270 --> 00:15:41,130 | stuff is not transferable knowledge in a book. Okay, so the things that I'm not going to be able to include in my books, I'm teaching you in live market |
| 75 | 00:15:41,130 --> 00:15:50,580 | settings, whether it be through tweets, calling the market or doing live sessions, or doing things over recorded execution and explain to why I'm doing |
| 76 | 00:15:50,580 --> 00:15:52,590 | what I'm doing and not other things. |
| 77 | 00:16:03,780 --> 00:16:22,650 | Now, what I'm looking at here, my interest is me get this shameless advertising, like this range right there that that Sibi on cutting through all of this and my |
| 78 | 00:16:22,650 --> 00:16:34,170 | eyes going right into here, I don't want to see any respect of this range. Hi. So this should be a balanced price range, not in an event where we're reaching |
| 79 | 00:16:34,170 --> 00:16:43,110 | for liquidity. And it's also an unsettling, which is the whole premise behind rate announcements, it's same reason that they would use CPI numbers, same |
| 80 | 00:16:43,110 --> 00:17:05,670 | reason why they would do Non Farm Payroll, okay, it's a disrupter. It's a very point of existence, is to disrupt the existing order flow. That means that |
| 81 | 00:17:05,700 --> 00:17:16,860 | everybody that's been going lower this morning, that's been profiting their stop losses are above relative equal highs or short term highs. So that's a buy side |
| 82 | 00:17:16,860 --> 00:17:29,010 | liquidity pool. I'm not interested in seeing this as a balanced price range, because my my interest is up here. I think that these individuals think that |
| 83 | 00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:38,190 | they're safe. And I always look at the marketplace with that mindset, you who, who has been making money, where would they be scared? What would make them |
| 84 | 00:17:38,190 --> 00:17:48,750 | scared? And what would take them out of the marketplace? And why would their stop loss be taken, be helpful to someone else. And that's narrative, okay, |
| 85 | 00:17:48,750 --> 00:17:58,170 | that's, that's things that help the trader form and develop an idea about why the market should even go where you think it may go, you can't just look at |
| 86 | 00:17:58,170 --> 00:18:08,460 | price action on the basis of a pattern, or a Fibonacci ratio or something harmonic or anything, and you can't look at a depth of market just because |
| 87 | 00:18:08,460 --> 00:18:17,790 | there's some number of orders around a specific, you know, high or low level, relative to the current market price. That's not enough to just, you know, |
| 88 | 00:18:17,820 --> 00:18:30,330 | enough is enough for somebody to form an opinion based on that. But that's to me too myopic. It's limited in its underlying basis. So there has to be more to why |
| 89 | 00:18:30,360 --> 00:18:39,390 | the market should go higher, not just simply, even for my stuff, you just because there's a down closed candle, and the market has shifted above a short |
| 90 | 00:18:39,390 --> 00:18:50,910 | term high. And it came back down to that down close candle. Unless the narrative is suggesting that the market is going to go to some buyside liquidity pool or |
| 91 | 00:18:50,910 --> 00:19:00,450 | some premium inefficiency above the market price. That's not going to work. And that's what I see a lot of my individuals out there trying to teach over block |
| 92 | 00:19:00,450 --> 00:19:10,410 | theory because they think it's supply and demand. So they're taking the the facts that just because there may be a rectangle on my chart, or I'm drawing a |
| 93 | 00:19:10,410 --> 00:19:19,980 | special attention to a specific candle. They will add in, they'll go through candles because that's what supply and demand says they you're not supposed to |
| 94 | 00:19:19,980 --> 00:19:32,790 | do that interesting look at a fresh zone. There has to be some underlying reason for the market to go to either reprice to inefficiency above or below the |
| 95 | 00:19:32,790 --> 00:19:43,380 | marketplace, or trade to stop above or below the marketplace. They're the only two things that can happen or consolidates. That's it. Anything outside of that |
| 96 | 00:19:43,650 --> 00:19:51,990 | is manipulation. It's manual intervention, these days like Non Farm Payroll. Today, the Fed announcement knew whether you're going to raise interest rates or |
| 97 | 00:19:52,080 --> 00:20:00,630 | lower them or leave them unchanged. You don't know what they're going to do. There's people out there that already know what they're going to make public But |
| 98 | 00:20:00,630 --> 00:20:11,790 | even, but I'm not gonna stick my neck out there on the block in front of these types of events because I know what their tendencies are, which is their traps, |
| 99 | 00:20:12,750 --> 00:20:23,310 | they can entice you to do something that if you came into the market like I have, I have no bias except for the scenarios I've painted for you here. So it's |
| 100 | 00:20:23,310 --> 00:20:40,770 | limited to two ranges of liquidity, the 640 and the 43. And I'm not convinced one way or the other because we have an overrun this here, I'm not subscribing |
| 101 | 00:20:40,770 --> 00:20:56,490 | that this is a balanced price range either because the reasons why is because we have a looming conference where the jawboning by the Fed, will, you need to be |
| 102 | 00:20:56,490 --> 00:21:06,330 | behind us. And then the market will be permitted to move around. But right now, what's actually occurring at this very moment is every one that's an an an |
| 103 | 00:21:06,330 --> 00:21:15,030 | interesting party, in trying to trade this asset, they're trying to determine whether it's gonna go higher or lower. And they're, they're placing bets right |
| 104 | 00:21:15,030 --> 00:21:25,620 | now they're entering your buying and selling. And they're going to have a great deal of regret, here, you come three o'clock, they're going to wish they didn't |
| 105 | 00:21:25,620 --> 00:21:34,500 | push the button in, they're going to wish they just turned off the charts didn't do anything today. Because it's going to do probably very much opposite to what |
| 106 | 00:21:34,500 --> 00:21:42,810 | they were expecting. And the unfortunate thing is, is if you're inexperienced, then you get into a move, and it starts to run in your favor on a day like this, |
| 107 | 00:21:43,260 --> 00:21:54,780 | you marry the vein, meaning you fall in love and you marry that position. And you will ignore every warning sign that it's either run its course it's done, or |
| 108 | 00:21:54,780 --> 00:22:06,180 | it's about to reverse on you. Because greed, you'll see it move really, really fast. If your own side, in the initial stages of a price run, it makes you feel |
| 109 | 00:22:06,180 --> 00:22:18,390 | like, wow, it's gonna really go, it's gonna really, really run and you won't, and it didn't happen. And they'll tell you that you should be in here trying to |
| 110 | 00:22:18,390 --> 00:22:25,230 | trade on these things. And that, to me is the surest sign that they are absolutely not risking real money and they are absolutely not in a position to |
| 111 | 00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:36,960 | give anybody advice with trading or financial advice. So I try to be very responsible as a as a mentor as an influencer. And I want my influence to end |
| 112 | 00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:52,380 | come November. So I know things are gonna get wild here, globally. And I don't want to have any reason to feel like I've either inspired or let someone down an |
| 113 | 00:22:52,380 --> 00:23:08,550 | incorrect perception of where price should go. When it starts getting nuts. I will be trading. But I won't be doing things like this come November the YouTube |
| 114 | 00:23:08,550 --> 00:23:18,210 | channel content will remain up there, my Twitter account will remain up I have never deleted delete any tweets. Everything will remain that is I won't be |
| 115 | 00:23:18,210 --> 00:23:36,000 | active. My attention was diverted to my personal life, my family and I'm trading so we are about six and a half minutes away from the real move. And that's |
| 116 | 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:43,020 | really what we're here for. I just liked to have the opportunity to sit down with you. You calmed me down because a lot a lot of you were hopped up on |
| 117 | 00:23:43,020 --> 00:23:48,900 | goofballs. You're like man, he's doing a live stream. I'm gonna just take his advice, and whatever he talks about, I'm gonna treat on it. You shouldn't be |
| 118 | 00:23:48,900 --> 00:24:06,420 | doing that today. So I've outlined what interests I have in the marketplace, the buy side, which I've made new, and I see right now with the microstructure |
| 119 | 00:24:06,420 --> 00:24:16,920 | that's in place at the very moment, we're looking at it right now. I still favor a run for 640. If I was to have like a gun to my head, it's okay ICT right now. |
| 120 | 00:24:17,220 --> 00:24:29,370 | You call it what do you think's going to happen? I believe that they're going to run for 614 If I'm wrong, the only thing I lose is I call it a move that I would |
| 121 | 00:24:29,370 --> 00:24:41,640 | have never taken with live money anyway. But based on the ride to pay more money for a better perspective. So I don't look at me losing trades, like you know, I |
| 122 | 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:51,750 | lost my models inferior now or it's obsolete to me people understand what the algorithms doing. So now it's changing. That's not going to happen. More people |
| 123 | 00:24:51,750 --> 00:25:00,090 | learning how to do this isn't gonna do anything except for create more liquidity. That's all it's gonna do. You're gonna be a lot of people out They |
| 124 | 00:25:00,090 --> 00:25:05,220 | don't know what they're doing. Like I was mentioning earlier down close panels doesn't make it a bullish order block. |
| 125 | 00:25:12,929 --> 00:25:23,909 | Now where we're at here, I'm watching the consequent encroachment, which is the midpoint of this wick right in here. So that right there, I'm watching, do we |
| 126 | 00:25:23,909 --> 00:25:33,989 | show wounds expand a lot of momentum run past that? Or is it just fluttering around there and start drawing back up into that candle? Getting close to that |
| 127 | 00:25:33,989 --> 00:25:39,209 | 230. So there's going to be a lot of whipsawing |
| 128 | 00:25:53,490 --> 00:26:01,620 | I'm going to take this line off here. Okay, I don't want you to be confusing. It's also pissing me off, because in my way, when I'm looking at everything, so |
| 129 | 00:26:01,620 --> 00:26:14,520 | I'm gonna take this line off, it's already been used this morning. And you can watch the live execution in Twitter feed I posted this morning. Okay, see how |
| 130 | 00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:26,340 | this reacted off that right there. That in itself, on a 15 or five second chart, that would be a trade I would have taken on another day. Not today, on another |
| 131 | 00:26:26,340 --> 00:26:33,630 | day where there's this looming, big injection of volatility. But look how much it's pulled off of that, that's bigger than most of you guys, you've watched |
| 132 | 00:26:33,630 --> 00:26:44,430 | live stream, you know, they're big moves. It's not even one quarter of that. And you just watch the happen, just you know, one candle in one five minute candle. |
| 133 | 00:26:49,980 --> 00:27:03,360 | So we're about a minute and a half. About fundamental drivers controlling price on the day of the event. I think it's a matter of who who can get hurt. Easiest |
| 134 | 00:27:03,360 --> 00:27:06,180 | than here, we're about to see it begin in three seconds. |
| 135 | 00:27:11,700 --> 00:27:24,150 | This is the window of time that your focus should be at the highest. Not being distracted with your spouse, your children. Mind your children, by the way, but |
| 136 | 00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:36,690 | don't let your attention be diluted. Because this is this is where the real move will form. So we've had an initial run, now, if we're looking at it like this, |
| 137 | 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:52,560 | okay, there's two o'clock. Right there. Okay. So what is the much more obvious run? Did it go down a lot, or did it go up and reach further for buy side than |
| 138 | 00:27:52,560 --> 00:28:05,340 | it did sell side? It looks to me like they set this run up for the stops here. If everything is true, based on what I've seen in the past, for a number of |
| 139 | 00:28:05,340 --> 00:28:17,580 | years, this should be rode below here and reach for this down here. That's what I would expect. Now, if everything goes against what I just outlined, it would |
| 140 | 00:28:17,580 --> 00:28:28,140 | need to completely run entirely overtop of this range here. If it does, I would expect it to come back down in and find that as support. And then it's going to |
| 141 | 00:28:28,140 --> 00:28:39,690 | go much higher than this. That's what I would expect. But right now, based on the fact that we waited till 230, it's 231. Now, the run was here. So this is a |
| 142 | 00:28:39,690 --> 00:28:51,870 | much larger run than just little drop down here below here. So if it's a two stage development, and delivery in price, they ran for the trailed by stops. And |
| 143 | 00:28:51,900 --> 00:29:02,100 | I want to see does it show a willingness to get down below here? And if it does, I'd be looking for the 483 level. What changes it would negates that idea is a |
| 144 | 00:29:02,100 --> 00:29:10,080 | has to run overtop of all this all this shaded area here, and then come back down and find some support. If it does, then like I said it would be much, much |
| 145 | 00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:25,890 | much bullish, much more bullish idea, then I would have expected at the beginning today. And what you do, he's, you'd like to talk a lot. I don't know |
| 146 | 00:29:25,890 --> 00:29:36,660 | what he's saying I could care less what he's saying. I don't have the aptitude to find follow along and make any sense out of whatever he's saying. Because I |
| 147 | 00:29:36,660 --> 00:29:47,250 | think it's all bullshit. Basically. It's not moving because he's talking. They're just using the fact that he's talking because he's the puppet. And he's |
| 148 | 00:29:47,250 --> 00:29:56,700 | the he's the focus point. Okay, he's like the thing. He's the right hand of the magician, and you're watching him where the sleight of hand is being done on the |
| 149 | 00:29:56,700 --> 00:30:02,970 | left hand and you never see it coming I guess you shouldn't say never seen come. |
| 150 | 00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:09,660 | One of the other things I like to do when nonfarm payroll Fridays when I'm studying pricing or events like this, I like to put myself in a position where |
| 151 | 00:31:09,660 --> 00:31:22,770 | if I was in a trade long or short, you know, at what point would I feel that discomfort and whether you're trading with a demo and in the learning early |
| 152 | 00:31:22,770 --> 00:31:26,520 | stages of your development or if you get to the point where you're trading real money |
| 153 | 00:31:35,490 --> 00:31:46,320 | this is those days where guys will tweet to me they'll say here's a trade I took but they're not telling me right now on Twitter that they're doing it so if |
| 154 | 00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:54,390 | you're going to do that if you have in mind tell me right now otherwise I'm not gonna pay any attention to your tweets |
| 155 | 00:32:13,950 --> 00:32:15,870 | oh that looks good |
| 156 | 00:32:38,190 --> 00:32:45,060 | okay, so we have breached that CV now we're going to drop down to a one minute chart and study everything in here okay |
| 157 | 00:33:01,020 --> 00:33:10,380 | now one of the setups that I like may not want because it's a little element might do it now when it trades to here to top of that range and it opens up next |
| 158 | 00:33:10,380 --> 00:33:18,600 | candle it could trade down and touch the high of that candle there and then I would expect it to run really fast up into the 640 by sight and expand through |
| 159 | 00:33:22,890 --> 00:33:32,880 | if it trades at a 640 or higher I would not be interested in seeing this as support not that you can't do it later on I just would not want and rip through |
| 160 | 00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:33,030 | it |
| 161 | 00:33:39,300 --> 00:33:47,040 | now if it were to not do that I was gonna go up here and then come back down I think that this is just a target and we're gonna keep going into the clothes. |
| 162 | 00:34:55,650 --> 00:35:08,280 | Check enters the 335 London session by sight tag, I'd want to see a little bit more, run through the net. I'm seeing some tweets, guys are saying that it's |
| 163 | 00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:18,210 | buffering, and the audios breaking, I can't do anything about that, folks. You know, I have I have high speed internet, I'm not having any issues with my |
| 164 | 00:35:18,210 --> 00:35:28,440 | delivery of a signal, I'm talking to you on an expensive microphone. Like it's, it's all YouTube. So I can't do anything about. |
| 165 | 00:35:49,530 --> 00:35:58,380 | Go back into this candle here. I mentioned when we were trading down on the sea, do we have a willingness to hit that and reject it, it's consequent |
| 166 | 00:35:58,380 --> 00:36:12,360 | encouragement, I'll show you the actual measurements on that. So the 50% level, or consequent encouragement of this tale on that candlestick, comes in at 15,545 |
| 167 | 00:36:12,390 --> 00:36:27,450 | and three quarters, the low, and you're gonna look up here, upper left hand corner, the low on that candle comes in at 15,005 45 and a quarter. So when one |
| 168 | 00:36:27,450 --> 00:36:38,490 | half of a point or two ticks beyond that, and then sharply rejected route over top of this, the only thing it didn't really do that I would have expected and |
| 169 | 00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:49,230 | would have enjoyed seeing was on a one minute basis, come back down and touch me go down a moment chart, I would have liked to see you have a touch of that right |
| 170 | 00:36:49,470 --> 00:36:56,850 | that level there and then deliver like it's doing here. That would have been a nice 60 points. |
| 171 | 00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:34,080 | So I'm looking at the likelihood this will want to go higher, into not yet. traded above this high here, then I would look at overnight London going into |
| 172 | 00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:42,600 | New York and tomorrow's trading is this would be the draw on trading tomorrow. So I would have a bullish bias going into that. And the only thing that would |
| 173 | 00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:53,730 | change that is going below this balanced price range that's on the five minute chart. So that's what I do with this information, even though I'm not willing to |
| 174 | 00:37:53,730 --> 00:38:02,160 | take the trade on a day like this, because it's a big gamble. And I'm more interested in the information that it provides me after it's already in price. |
| 175 | 00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:15,120 | Because my interest is really on the Thursday and Friday's action to trade that I use this information here to try to like help me frame a bias. Give me context |
| 176 | 00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:27,270 | as to what I would like to show as a parameter in my analysis, where would I be incorrect in assuming that it's going to go higher or lower. That's why I study |
| 177 | 00:38:27,270 --> 00:38:35,820 | it. Even if I'm not talking about it live on Twitter. I'm always watching these big events. And I'm looking at it with the same perspective I'm showing you here |
| 178 | 00:38:35,820 --> 00:38:43,470 | today we're measuring things I'm looking at, does it have a willingness to want to go to a specific level? Does it do certain things that I would like to see? |
| 179 | 00:38:43,500 --> 00:38:56,610 | Or if it doesn't do that, you know, what does it help me conclude in terms of useful information for tomorrow's trading and or Friday's trading. And to a |
| 180 | 00:38:56,610 --> 00:39:05,700 | myopic new trader, or someone that just starts or a inexperienced mentor, they'll be out here trying to promote the idea that you should have been a part |
| 181 | 00:39:05,700 --> 00:39:15,660 | of that move. And you might get lucky. And you might, you might be able to do something with that. But if I'm in a position like I'm in, and if I say I'm |
| 182 | 00:39:15,660 --> 00:39:22,500 | going to do something, or I'm interested in doing something I know there's at least 15% of you are going to go out there and try to do something with real |
| 183 | 00:39:22,500 --> 00:39:32,400 | money or your funded account. And you're not going to know how to navigate, you're going to not really enter it the right time. And you're going to open up |
| 184 | 00:39:32,430 --> 00:39:43,560 | yourself to a adverse result. And that's going to really get used but I'm finding the right ones, because it's my stuff. That's authorship. But the things |
| 185 | 00:39:43,590 --> 00:39:56,130 | I'm teaching you to focus on, helps you frame their narrative. Why you should trust these, these concepts, it's specific times and not lean on them at others. |
| 186 | 00:39:56,520 --> 00:40:02,880 | When everybody else will look at it and think it's a down close candle. It's a fair value. Yep, it's a treat. It's something that you didn't do. And it's not. |
| 187 | 00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:12,270 | So it's, it's hidden in plain sight. That's the beauty of it. And that's like the easiest straightforward answer I can give to people that are afraid that |
| 188 | 00:40:12,270 --> 00:40:23,520 | more people will learn it. Look, everybody that's ever rode a motorcycle, it doesn't mean they're gonna go out there and keep up and run with those |
| 189 | 00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:31,230 | individuals that can run around a track, you have professionals speed demons. And just because you drive your car doesn't mean you could be a good NASCAR |
| 190 | 00:40:31,230 --> 00:40:39,510 | driver. And it means that you're familiar with a motorcycle, if you if you've driven one, you're familiar with your car, that familiarity isn't going to be |
| 191 | 00:40:39,510 --> 00:40:53,760 | trance, verbal, useful information to a NASCAR or a sport bike. You know, there's a big chasm between someone looking at a video or watching me talk about |
| 192 | 00:40:53,760 --> 00:41:03,690 | something and in actually going out and doing it, there's a great deal of learning that has to take place and they will be a barrier to themselves. So |
| 193 | 00:41:03,690 --> 00:41:13,410 | I've I've never been afraid of teaching it because more people are gonna learn how to do it and it's going to change now I've been afraid to teach what I know |
| 194 | 00:41:13,410 --> 00:41:21,450 | because I'm not supposed to teach that so I created this language to talk in this language and this is where I'm safe |
| 195 | 00:41:32,700 --> 00:41:36,150 | so I'm going to hang around till about 315 Then I'm going to close it. |
| 196 | 00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:19,320 | Folks, I get it. I don't need 30 people to tell me that the video audio and such is breaking up. If you look at other people tweeting to me |
| 197 | 00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:46,560 | doesn't quite have what I would want to see going in three o'clock. |
| 198 | 00:46:44,220 --> 00:46:49,530 | See if there's any interest in the top of that shaded area here |
| 199 | 00:47:57,930 --> 00:48:01,920 | all right where three o'clock now final our New York pm session trading |
| 200 | 00:48:19,380 --> 00:48:21,210 | take note where the bodies of the candles are |
| 201 | 00:49:08,700 --> 00:49:09,300 | looks heavy |
| 202 | 00:49:40,500 --> 00:49:57,600 | alright so we hit this city got close to it on his kingdom didn't quite get to it here do we get any kind of insight from that? Because I want to show some |
| 203 | 00:49:57,600 --> 00:50:08,580 | support as you want to take out this swing high You're here or does it just erode into that going through this again to the downside is very very very |
| 204 | 00:50:08,580 --> 00:50:09,120 | bearish |
| 205 | 00:50:15,750 --> 00:50:28,140 | as long as we find support here it doesn't go through we take out this swing high here and we would most likely try to grab the backup in here enroll anybody |
| 206 | 00:50:28,140 --> 00:50:29,160 | that's trying to sell short |
| 207 | 00:50:36,390 --> 00:50:40,110 | you would need to do that though by 345 for me to like it |
| 208 | 00:51:16,470 --> 00:51:17,190 | okay so if it's |
| 209 | 00:51:22,230 --> 00:51:24,630 | anything bullish we would not want to see that at all. |
| 210 | 00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:11,520 | So we've cleared 640 Now 483 is the draw for today close. |
| 211 | 00:54:10,260 --> 00:54:18,420 | Remember up here we are interested in 640 this morning to smooth with |
| 212 | 00:54:28,590 --> 00:54:37,230 | Smart Money use that liquidity in the form of buy side and they are short where's their best exits the low |
| 213 | 00:54:47,250 --> 00:55:04,830 | I'd like to see this area up here. Stay open. I want to see if it's sensitive in here and touching this over here. So this See if it wants this 40 I'm sorry 2043 |
| 214 | 00:55:04,830 --> 00:55:11,790 | and three quarters it wants that level going into close I would want to see this shaded area here treated as a balanced price range |
| 215 | 00:55:19,980 --> 00:55:31,710 | I measured this range here in the event that we had a retrace up into it. Anything at the 50% would have been good or less for short to even get up there |
| 216 | 00:55:31,710 --> 00:55:36,600 | so that to me is indicative that it's probably really weak going into the clothes. |
| 217 | 00:57:01,590 --> 00:57:09,660 | Into this, these two got the short term high there and then reject and go lower aim for that 15,043 |
| 218 | 00:57:15,900 --> 00:57:18,000 | It doesn't even go back up into here that's really weak. |
| 219 | 01:04:49,800 --> 01:10:22,560 | Evening So I wouldn't want to see anything on a closing basis above the midpoint of that blue shaded area it's already spent too much time in this area for my |
| 220 | 01:10:22,560 --> 01:10:23,070 | liking |
| 221 | 01:10:37,140 --> 01:10:49,740 | we ran for one side of the liquidity I mentioned but I was interested in seeing that 483 level give up the boost and it would have been both our pools of |
| 222 | 01:10:49,740 --> 01:10:50,970 | liquidity sweat |
| 223 | 01:10:56,070 --> 01:11:14,130 | 35 minutes or so after three determining what we'll run for on market on close macro. I don't think we're going to make a higher high and I don't want to see |
| 224 | 01:11:14,130 --> 01:11:28,200 | it trade above halfway of this shaded area here. So either we consolidate which is non eventful, or we eventually come out of this aggressively and run for the |
| 225 | 01:11:28,200 --> 01:11:29,070 | sell side here. |
| 226 | 01:16:36,840 --> 01:16:51,660 | Remember when I was asking price to show over here? Look and see if it'll offer it here at the top of that range it's an old busy I'm sorry old city rather city |
| 227 | 01:16:53,010 --> 01:16:54,780 | Senate balanced by Senate efficiency |
| 228 | 01:22:49,260 --> 01:23:03,240 | Can't get a read on what it wants to do here not a lot of methylation hence the reason why I tell you don't trade these days |
| 229 | 01:23:10,080 --> 01:23:22,320 | I measured the high to this range here too it's not your soul try to keep the rhythm and |
| 230 | 01:23:30,300 --> 01:23:49,350 | just a really crummy fed day I thought we'd get a lot more momentum and movement around here today but it's not doing so just hanging around so I'm gonna have to |
| 231 | 01:23:49,350 --> 01:24:03,120 | see what we do tomorrow morning I will be trading tomorrow but I don't have what I was hoping for. Which will be a real nice heavy bias where I could see it |
| 232 | 01:24:03,120 --> 01:24:10,410 | wants to do this or that I want to close the video with this is what I'm going to be doing tomorrow so that way we can watch and see you know how I framed it |
| 233 | 01:24:10,440 --> 01:24:17,670 | on this and then use the executions and such tomorrow but I don't have anything here to hang my hat on it |
| 234 | 01:24:24,090 --> 01:24:31,860 | must be the UFO discussion that I took all the steam out everybody's watching the UFO disclosure |
| 235 | 01:24:49,980 --> 01:24:57,540 | I realized there's some audio stuff I need you guys it's still tweeting to me tell me there's something wrong with the audio keeps buffering and it's bad. I |
| 236 | 01:24:57,540 --> 01:25:14,580 | can't do anything about that. high end equipment, I'm using YouTube, YouTube's doing whatever they got to do with it, that comes to you in a substandard |
| 237 | 01:25:14,580 --> 01:25:18,570 | manner, that's not my doing them doing it that kind of line. |
| 238 | 01:25:30,420 --> 01:25:43,080 | Now, let me close it with this. What keeps me from trading on a day like this? The things I pointed to here, these are all things that I would expect to see in |
| 239 | 01:25:43,080 --> 01:25:52,770 | the market that's not being manipulated, it's not being pushed around artificially. So all this is intervention, it's going way beyond what would be |
| 240 | 01:25:52,770 --> 01:26:05,130 | reasonable, higher and lower. So when I point out things, okay, the cynics will say, see, it doesn't work. When the point is that days like this, I've already |
| 241 | 01:26:05,130 --> 01:26:17,190 | arrived at and taught you that this is where you're going to see a an absence of precision. Otherwise, wouldn't I be out here trading it? Yes. But I'm not. This |
| 242 | 01:26:17,190 --> 01:26:26,940 | morning, I did, because there was something obvious reopening range. But that's it. The rest of the day, I mean, I would have, I would have taken that. And to |
| 243 | 01:26:26,940 --> 01:26:36,210 | run to here and then hopefully up in here, my best case scenario exit would have been up here, in a partial event rate that 640 level, even not 41, I would have |
| 244 | 01:26:36,210 --> 01:26:45,630 | been out for a partial. And then my best case scenario, you're neither of which would have been filled in, I would have had a stop out. So it's not a matter of |
| 245 | 01:26:45,630 --> 01:26:53,520 | trying to see face here, I'm not trying to you paint something that would have wouldn't happen, you know, in to make myself look good. The point is, is I'm |
| 246 | 01:26:53,520 --> 01:27:04,860 | showing you where the problems lie on days like this. So if you can identify it as a problem area, where you're going to have friction, you don't want to have a |
| 247 | 01:27:04,860 --> 01:27:11,520 | slippery slope, it's already bad enough, when you're first trying to learn how to do this. You don't want to compound the difficulty with a day where even the |
| 248 | 01:27:11,520 --> 01:27:22,290 | guy that comes to things that I highlighted, that I would like to see, didn't materialize. So if I'm telling you as the educator to mentor the person that |
| 249 | 01:27:22,380 --> 01:27:32,970 | authored these concepts, if I tell you, I don't trade on these days, because my concepts don't hold up well, in this particular environment. Why should you go |
| 250 | 01:27:32,970 --> 01:27:44,880 | out there and gamble and the whole point is for you to understand that these days make it more complicated. So when I point out things I want you to observe, |
| 251 | 01:27:45,210 --> 01:27:55,050 | does it respect those levels? Does it do this? Does it do that? No. Only a few things happened. Majority of it didn't. So when we get to another rate |
| 252 | 01:27:55,050 --> 01:28:02,010 | announcement day, in the future, when I'm not doing this with you, we're not showing you anything, and you feel the impulse to want to go out here and try to |
| 253 | 01:28:02,010 --> 01:28:13,410 | gamble. Remember this, because I'm not trying to do it. So you shouldn't try to do it. And it doesn't matter who comes later on today. And tells you what they |
| 254 | 01:28:13,410 --> 01:28:20,700 | did and how much they did this and this and that nothing, it doesn't matter. You can't spend their money. You can't spend their money and they're not going to |
| 255 | 01:28:20,700 --> 01:28:30,600 | give it to you because they made it. So there's no point in talking about, just know that this is a very, very tricky day, just like a Non Farm Payroll day. And |
| 256 | 01:28:30,630 --> 01:28:35,940 | the odds of you being successful in it are low. So you don't want to be trading in those environments. |
| 257 | 01:28:41,550 --> 01:28:53,490 | I would have liked to see this. If you look at yesterday's afternoon, price action by trade, I was with my son Cameron, I was living all over NASDAQ, I beat |
| 258 | 01:28:53,490 --> 01:29:02,520 | it up pretty bad enlisted card of the day, it did something very similar like it was doing here. And what I was wanting was when I mentioned I said I want to see |
| 259 | 01:29:02,520 --> 01:29:13,410 | a trade up into this gap here. And I want to see it so off and then reach for the sell side. It did very much that very thing yesterday. And I was waiting for |
| 260 | 01:29:13,410 --> 01:29:20,130 | a repeat scenario, the very thing that we saw yesterday and what I was anticipating here came all the way up almost to the very high of it and it |
| 261 | 01:29:20,130 --> 01:29:30,150 | started to break down and what I was watching was does it have a willingness to get through this mean threshold the half point of this down close candle and it |
| 262 | 01:29:30,150 --> 01:29:37,380 | wasn't even able to do that. So that was problematic and you watch me take away all the things here because I want to see does it gravitate back up to the |
| 263 | 01:29:37,380 --> 01:29:45,360 | midpoint of this because if it does, I don't want to see it close above it. This here looks good initially went down but then it this range started acting |
| 264 | 01:29:45,360 --> 01:29:58,560 | wonder. You're trading on probabilities. Many times you're you're hanging it all on a myth, some kind of animal pattern, some kind of indicator. And if I can't |
| 265 | 01:29:58,560 --> 01:30:08,760 | make rhyme or reason out of where Are there gonna draw to for inefficiency, or liquidity, whether it be premium or discount, I'll be just like anybody else on |
| 266 | 01:30:08,760 --> 01:30:19,170 | a day like this, struggling trying to find out where it's gonna go. Because it's being controlled, it's been outside the scope of normal scripts. And it just |
| 267 | 01:30:19,230 --> 01:30:29,070 | does these types of things here. And you can sit here and wrestle, like I've done for years when I was younger, try to figure it out. And I realized I don't |
| 268 | 01:30:29,070 --> 01:30:36,870 | need to do that. I don't need to figure that day, I don't need to know what nonfarm payroll is going to do. I don't care. Because I know I can find my |
| 269 | 01:30:36,870 --> 01:30:48,210 | models, plural, on all the other days, of every single month. And also new, there are certain times a year where seasonal tendencies are going to be more |
| 270 | 01:30:48,210 --> 01:31:02,040 | prone to deliver price and a much more magnificent manner, a lot of speed, a lot of distance, the magnitude of the moves will be much more pronounced. And I try |
| 271 | 01:31:02,040 --> 01:31:10,140 | to focus on those because I knew that's where my edges, that's where my advantages are, that's where my model shine, and the least amount of |
| 272 | 01:31:10,140 --> 01:31:24,540 | manipulation takes place. So you don't want to have the biggest defensive team go up against your treat. And you're asking to play in the Super Bowl, with the |
| 273 | 01:31:24,570 --> 01:31:34,500 | with the team that has the best defense, on a day that your quarterback has an injury. That's what it's like trading on these days, no matter what you have as |
| 274 | 01:31:34,500 --> 01:31:40,440 | a model there, whatever you use, you're up against the individuals that roll this place. |
| 275 | 01:31:45,870 --> 01:31:55,470 | And there's no better way of me communicating to then to sit out here live and explain to you what I personally would expect on a day that I would not expect |
| 276 | 01:31:55,470 --> 01:32:04,170 | my tools to shine. If this is your first live stream here, you're gonna hear that and say, Well, this is someone trying to say face no, you don't know what |
| 277 | 01:32:04,170 --> 01:32:13,320 | I've said before. And my students will vouch for this, I've always said, don't try to trade on these days. Don't try to do it, because precision will evade you |
| 278 | 01:32:17,670 --> 01:32:23,160 | make that move like that one. Right after four o'clock earnings. |
| 279 | 01:32:34,800 --> 01:32:37,620 | Sweet, sweet, sweet. That's a nice rip. |
| 280 | 01:32:43,320 --> 01:32:56,730 | So there you go. I stated that I didn't think back here, they would see a higher high we got one. to Now does that type of thing invite you to want to go ahead |
| 281 | 01:32:56,730 --> 01:33:08,970 | and crack the code of this day does it make you want to go out there and try to figure out something that I'd mentioned users better trading opportunities away |
| 282 | 01:33:08,970 --> 01:33:22,170 | from these days. And all you need is one good week, out of a month. And it'll fix a lot of bad smaller little errors. You'll need one profitable day, per week |
| 283 | 01:33:22,950 --> 01:33:35,790 | to do well and stop. You don't need to everyday trade. But when you come into this business and you're brand new, and you listen to Instagram mindsets, you |
| 284 | 01:33:35,790 --> 01:33:46,500 | know people that don't really have an understanding what they're supposed to be doing. And you're influencing more than they're educating. You get wrapped up in |
| 285 | 01:33:46,500 --> 01:33:55,620 | that kind of stuff. And you think that trading is every day always trying to do something, you know, hyper active. And that's not what you should be thinking it |
| 286 | 01:33:55,620 --> 01:34:05,970 | is. It's like a sniper denier out there tommy gun in, you know, spraying all their bullets into the direction of their target. They're waiting for that one |
| 287 | 01:34:05,970 --> 01:34:20,040 | mark to walk into their crosshairs. And then they gently squeeze the trigger with the expectation that when they shoot, they know that that shot has to make |
| 288 | 01:34:20,640 --> 01:34:30,720 | an impact on the target because when they shoot, the adversaries can triangulate and get a vector on where they're at. So they're exposing themselves there |
| 289 | 01:34:30,750 --> 01:34:42,480 | that's their risk. Their stoplights their stop losses, their life, their soul leaving their body. Knowing knowing get so many chances to get stopped out in |
| 290 | 01:34:42,480 --> 01:34:51,840 | that environment. If you treat your trading like that, not that you should be making everything hinge on your trade being successful. But you should be |
| 291 | 01:34:51,840 --> 01:35:02,640 | thinking about the measure of risk like that. Not to be paired up near paralyzing you or create trade There's paralysis, but you need to think about |
| 292 | 01:35:02,640 --> 01:35:16,380 | like, would a sniper wear rainbow sweatpants and headband out there in the jungle, get ready to take down somebody, no. They're gonna be camouflaged, |
| 293 | 01:35:16,410 --> 01:35:30,960 | they're gonna be in amongst the natural setting. But they're not going to walk out there in no foilage. And when you're out here on base like this, you get |
| 294 | 01:35:32,220 --> 01:35:43,230 | like a spotlight channel and you can't, you can't hide and wait for your good shot. Because the mark, you hurt yourself, just know that that's a learning |
| 295 | 01:35:43,230 --> 01:35:55,500 | lesson, growth pains. Growing pains are never fun. The mistake I made and some of you might make as well is that you think you're gonna figure it out and know |
| 296 | 01:35:55,500 --> 01:36:07,500 | what to do every time these days come. But you don't appreciate the magnitude of how much they're manipulated. Like, you'd have no idea. You will, over time |
| 297 | 01:36:07,500 --> 01:36:16,830 | watching it, you'll say, oh, man, it wasn't obvious at the time, but I can see it. Right now this looks like you'll find 20 different retail things in here |
| 298 | 01:36:16,830 --> 01:36:26,130 | that you would have bought and sold from. That's because Hindsight is 2020 You're gonna see all kinds of things in here, even maybe I have taught Oh, yeah, |
| 299 | 01:36:26,130 --> 01:36:38,460 | I see a concept here ESEA. Norwalk there. Unless you knew the narrative, none of that stuff's going to work. None of it will work. And that's the, that's the, |
| 300 | 01:36:38,910 --> 01:36:47,250 | we're at the roulette table. And so my last analogy, I'm gonna close with this, I need something raw at the casino. And we're standing around the roulette |
| 301 | 01:36:47,250 --> 01:37:00,900 | table. And you had the balls, they're betting on black, he had the bears the bet known red. You think it's 5050, you got a 5050 chance, it's black or red. But |
| 302 | 01:37:00,900 --> 01:37:19,260 | you don't realize that the market makers are green. And when it's favorable for them to take both sides out, greens going up. And they'll play green all day |
| 303 | 01:37:19,260 --> 01:37:38,280 | long on nonprofit payroll, they'll play green on a rate announcement like this. It didn't move a lot. Let me think about the total range here. Not in terms of |
| 304 | 01:37:38,310 --> 01:37:49,140 | where we have been in terms of volatility. Not years ago, when I first started, this would have been ridiculous in terms of volatility. But this is nothing in |
| 305 | 01:37:49,140 --> 01:37:58,680 | the grand scheme of things where we are now. And that was the first clue that we're not seeing a whole lot of movement here. Remember, I was telling you two |
| 306 | 01:37:58,680 --> 01:38:15,630 | o'clock was against kind of blame actually. Then at 230. We saw run it up to 640 by sign out and then consolidated and go into four o'clock, we have one more |
| 307 | 01:38:15,630 --> 01:38:22,320 | pump and creates a hierarchy. We're sitting around at 640 level now. |
| 308 | 01:38:27,870 --> 01:38:43,440 | So anyway, learn not to be interested in doing this as a live trading day. That's the main takeaway. Okay? If you haven't, at least took that. And put that |
| 309 | 01:38:43,470 --> 01:38:57,570 | into your toolbox to say, Don't Tread here. do that here. Do that today. Because I promise you, unless you heard this, unless you watch me tried to do it today, |
| 310 | 01:38:58,290 --> 01:39:05,280 | you would have believed that I'm sitting around here, running up and down all day long on a day like this. And it's not like that on these types of days for |
| 311 | 01:39:05,280 --> 01:39:18,810 | me. Which is exactly why I tell you don't touch them. I have other things I'm never going to teach you. And even those things are not helping me. There's no |
| 312 | 01:39:18,810 --> 01:39:30,960 | advantage on a day like this for me. None. I'm just like everyone else. They weren't being respected. That should not happen. If they fail, that means it's |
| 313 | 01:39:30,960 --> 01:39:40,770 | giving you a warning sign that you're offside or it's not, it's not performing like you want it to. Now, as a younger man when I was 20 I took that as Yeah, |
| 314 | 01:39:40,770 --> 01:39:51,600 | I'm just gonna get in your head. I'm gonna, I'm gonna get ahead of my signal. I know my signal will happen after I get in. The market will bend to my will. And |
| 315 | 01:39:51,930 --> 01:40:02,610 | that's many times what led to me blowing on an account when you knew you don't know that If you try to ignore it, like it's not going to happen to you like |
| 316 | 01:40:02,610 --> 01:40:14,700 | you're going to be the exception to the rule. I promise you, every single person that's ever hurt themselves trying to do something like that. It's the same way. |
| 317 | 01:40:15,210 --> 01:40:23,130 | You're not any different. I'm wasn't any different when it happened to me. You think that it's going to work for you, and you ignore even the smallest little |
| 318 | 01:40:23,130 --> 01:40:34,860 | inclination inside? You know that? I shouldn't be doing this. But well, we went to the casino last well bet at all. And you can't do that kind of stuff on days |
| 319 | 01:40:34,860 --> 01:40:46,500 | like this. You can't, not in survive, not do well. You'll have severe drawdown, you'll lose your funded accounts, you'll blow your combine, you'll go in severe |
| 320 | 01:40:46,500 --> 01:40:56,070 | drawdown with your live accounts or even blow them. Because you get emotional want to be right and want to fix something you did it wrong earlier. Now it |
| 321 | 01:40:56,070 --> 01:41:09,840 | seems obvious. No. Just don't touch it. Use the information after the fact. It's okay. I feel confident that we're gonna go higher or lower. Which let me take a |
| 322 | 01:41:09,840 --> 01:41:25,710 | quick look at this chart. It's not, it's really not, you know, if I were making the market for NASDAQ. Okay. This is my last point. I'm closing it. And I keep |
| 323 | 01:41:25,710 --> 01:41:35,850 | saying it, but I'm always over deliver the idea of it trading where it did here. We weren't up into this area here. I personally, I would absolutely murder |
| 324 | 01:41:35,850 --> 01:41:46,290 | everything and go lower Thursday and Friday. I'm not saying that's what it's gonna happen. But I wouldn't be surprised if that's what they do. How am I going |
| 325 | 01:41:46,290 --> 01:41:57,810 | to treat Thursday, I'm going to sleep through London. I'm going to get up tomorrow around 630 in New York local time. And I'm going to identify where are |
| 326 | 01:41:57,810 --> 01:42:12,660 | my 15 minute pools of liquidity just like I have this chart here. Right now, it's 715 1,739.25 level or the 15,515 even and therefore if it goes lower than |
| 327 | 01:42:12,660 --> 01:42:28,920 | the 43.5 level. I'm not confident right now, to know which one I wanted to know, the way we close today, I wanted to know what I could tell you what side I want. |
| 328 | 01:42:29,520 --> 01:42:37,980 | Like when I'm doing the analysis commentary. But yes, this is where I think he's gonna draw to, I don't know, I'm torn between both of them. So whenever that |
| 329 | 01:42:37,980 --> 01:42:47,730 | happens, and it does happen in my analysis, sometimes. Stupid students get frustrated, because they want me to be able to know what it is all the time. And |
| 330 | 01:42:47,730 --> 01:42:55,740 | sometimes I don't. And you're not going to always either. And you have to grow comfortable with not knowing sometimes and just waiting for more information, |
| 331 | 01:42:55,740 --> 01:43:11,130 | more intel, it's all and it cost me nothing today, to sit out here and do this. It cost me no money, it cost me no emotion whatsoever. The only thing is, is I |
| 332 | 01:43:11,130 --> 01:43:17,190 | was hoping at the end of it, I would know what I wanted to do beforehand, because I would tell you, Okay, this is where we're going to draw to tomorrow. |
| 333 | 01:43:17,730 --> 01:43:25,800 | And then we would all watch it. I don't have that here. Nothing, nothing really shows me one side or the other better than the other because they're just back |
| 334 | 01:43:25,800 --> 01:43:37,260 | and forth. And this is a whole lot of nothing going on. And I'm not confident co signing on one direction or the other. So the best thing to do is explain to you |
| 335 | 01:43:37,260 --> 01:43:45,420 | how I'm going to treat it tomorrow, I'm not going to look at one then I'm not going to get up and see what London's doing. I'm going to wait till around 630. |
| 336 | 01:43:46,050 --> 01:43:59,250 | And I'll either get woke up from a coma from my children's mother, or I will wake up by a security and a circadian alarm clock. I don't have an alarm, per |
| 337 | 01:43:59,250 --> 01:44:07,680 | se, I just I know what I want to wake up and usually get up at that time. I sleep in like four hour cycles. So if I lay down, I'm gonna get up between three |
| 338 | 01:44:07,680 --> 01:44:18,480 | hours and half to four hours. And that's usually asleep like that added to them and maybe a catnap you're there whenever I can fit it. And I have plenty rest. |
| 339 | 01:44:20,430 --> 01:44:31,500 | But based on these specific levels, what we're gravitating towards, I know that I'll probably get a 20 or 30 handle range of opportunity. If I'm waking up at |
| 340 | 01:44:31,650 --> 01:44:39,810 | ahead of seven o'clock, between seven o'clock and 830 I'll look to see if there's something I can use the frame. If not, then I'll wait at 830 to 10 |
| 341 | 01:44:39,810 --> 01:44:49,890 | o'clock in that range between when the news embargo lifts and the opening range is complete. 930 till 10 o'clock. And then I'll do something with a silver |
| 342 | 01:44:49,890 --> 01:45:04,650 | bullet. But i are i already know, I already know. I'm making money tomorrow. I already know that that's going to happen. But I know there is a chance that is |
| 343 | 01:45:05,010 --> 01:45:18,450 | much more significant of me losing on a day like this. So I have to respect that I have to also identify my own limitations. You don't see that. In the trading |
| 344 | 01:45:18,450 --> 01:45:32,070 | community, you don't see that on Twitter. You don't see that in Instagram, and discord and Facebook. You see, go go go baby. And I think that is foolish, like |
| 345 | 01:45:32,070 --> 01:45:42,330 | you have to every but everybody has a weakness and there's no shame in admitting what your weaknesses, that's actually wisdom. That's wisdom. Pure weight |
| 346 | 01:45:42,330 --> 01:45:51,660 | training, you know, you can't benchpress 500 pounds, why the hell are you going to try to crawl under those blades and try to do it? So you have to be |
| 347 | 01:45:51,660 --> 01:46:02,070 | responsible, you have to know where you're going to excel? Where's your edge? Where's your best trading conditions? But on the other side of that, by |
| 348 | 01:46:02,070 --> 01:46:14,850 | journaling, you'd learn by real data, real journal experiences, or you were there it happened? What keeps repeating on what type of scenario what type of |
| 349 | 01:46:14,850 --> 01:46:29,160 | day? What are you trying to trade? What model are you trying to force that may or may not be supportive with your or compatible with your personality. These |
| 350 | 01:46:29,160 --> 01:46:36,960 | are very important things that no one really touches on. But they're the very defining moments that make you or break you. |
| 351 | 01:46:42,420 --> 01:46:50,790 | There's a way to do this, and be profitable. And it'll feel easy, it ain't easy, because you have to go through a lot of stuff to figure yourself out, and then |
| 352 | 01:46:50,790 --> 01:47:04,200 | what model fit you. But when you get to that point, it's easy to make money doing this. You always have risk. That's always there. But it's easier to take |
| 353 | 01:47:04,200 --> 01:47:15,600 | the initiative and trade with that underlying risk. Because you know, you're in a condition or environment using a model that you trust, that it's conducive for |
| 354 | 01:47:15,600 --> 01:47:26,280 | you to find success in it. But in the beginning, when you're brand new, or you're listening to someone that's too new, do you know better? You you're gonna |
| 355 | 01:47:26,280 --> 01:47:36,720 | have a whole lot of fear and anxiety and regret doing things like trading and these days. I mean, seriously, folks, let me look at this chart. Look at that. |
| 356 | 01:47:39,000 --> 01:47:55,590 | Does that look like something that you can't live without? Like you got to be in? I have to be in that ICT. You understand? I love her. I get it. But she'll |
| 357 | 01:47:55,590 --> 01:48:12,270 | grow up and you understand that she's not the only one for you. Or he deference to the ladies. So anyway, I'm not certain that we'll have another one of these |
| 358 | 01:48:12,270 --> 01:48:21,420 | before we close in November. But I will do the non farm payrolls going forward. So that way we can get another |