ICT YT - 2023-07-23 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Market Review - July 23 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-07-30 06:26
Outline
00:16 - Weekly chart of Dollar Index.
- Market review dollar index euro dollar and s and p and nasdaq futures.
- Dollar index daily chart.
02:22 - Volume imbalance on the Eurodollar.
- Weekly volume imbalance in eurodollar weekly chart.
- Weekly candlestick body vs weekly timeframe.
03:59 - The draw on liquidity finally delivered.
- Draw on liquidity has finally been delivered.
- Several targets from July 9 analysis video.
05:50 - What's the next move?
- The next move can go both directions.
- Inefficiency and inefficiency on the upside.
07:30 - Nasdaq Emi futures weekly chart.
- Keeping cards close to the vest this week.
- Nasdaq emini futures weekly chart.
09:05 - The inefficiency of the market.
- Intermediate term high on the weekly chart for S and P.
- S and P
11:23 - Breaking down the fair value gap.
- How to trade on a closing basis above friday's high.
- Nasdaq trading.
13:03 - Looking for inefficiencies and buy side liquidity.
- Looking for inefficiencies and buy/sell side liquidity for withdrawal of liquidity.
- No bias in the market today.
14:33 - A look at the current market structure.
- First part of the week.
- Nasdaq emini futures in the short term high.
16:25 - Nasdaq volatility and trading for volatility.
- No daily bias for this trading week.
- Monday trading to provide a better backdrop.
Transcript
| 1 | 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:32,130 | ICT: Welcome back, folks. Alright, so we're doing a short little market review Dollar Index, Euro dollar, and s&p and Nasdaq futures. So Dollar Index is our |
| 2 | 00:00:32,130 --> 00:00:48,120 | weekly chart here. You can see I mentioned this one last week as a point of consideration for a discount. And while it looks like it touched it, it was one |
| 3 | 00:00:48,120 --> 00:01:03,600 | pipit short of touching the high which is the actual low of this weekly candle here, you can find that with the week represented by the date here, okay. So far |
| 4 | 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:16,770 | we're working up into this city, which is a cell site and balance by sight and efficiency. I'm watching how we trade in this area right here. Okay, so if we |
| 5 | 00:01:16,770 --> 00:01:28,680 | watch two price points that I'm keeping a close eye on which is the consequent encouragement of this candles wick which is midpoint here and the same thing |
| 6 | 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:42,780 | here. So midpoint of that wick, extend those two out, I want you to do that in your own chart. Okay, and how we trade if at all in either one of these. That |
| 7 | 00:01:42,780 --> 00:01:59,040 | will be interesting to me Dollar Index daily chart. Okay, so we see got real close to it. There didn't quite get to it and then now we pulled up into this |
| 8 | 00:01:59,340 --> 00:02:08,940 | sort of balanced buy side and efficiency there's a small little gap this is actually a real liquidity void where there's no actual trading printed between |
| 9 | 00:02:08,940 --> 00:02:21,360 | these two respective candles, those candles high neck candles low so it'll be interesting to see if it wants to get up to reprice into this area right here. |
| 10 | 00:02:22,050 --> 00:02:39,510 | That little gap right there. If it stays open and starts to trade lower this can meet something that can stay open for a long time Eurodollar weekly chart |
| 11 | 00:02:41,130 --> 00:02:49,650 | Alright, so we have the weekly volume imbalance which is the difference between this candles closing price and this candles opening price? While we did have |
| 12 | 00:02:49,650 --> 00:03:00,540 | this candlesticks tail, and this candlesticks wick overlap one another in here, but I have drawn your attention to and this was ahead of time. So it's not just |
| 13 | 00:03:00,570 --> 00:03:12,390 | right now we've talked about this for also for several months, actually. But the difference between those two price points is that there is no body, no |
| 14 | 00:03:12,390 --> 00:03:22,980 | candlestick body on this timeframe. So the weekly candlestick. While we did trade down with the candlesticks, wick in the candlesticks tail up here, |
| 15 | 00:03:24,060 --> 00:03:39,840 | whenever a market shows an unwillingness to drop a body between two respective candlesticks that is a volume and balance. So I love those volume imbalance |
| 16 | 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:51,930 | because that timeframe to be efficiently delivered. Okay, so the algorithm will refer back to weekly timeframe. There's an inefficiency here, everyone else |
| 17 | 00:03:51,930 --> 00:04:02,070 | would not see this as an inefficiency because they see that it traded back and forth in here. That's not efficient. So the draw on liquidity that we've been |
| 18 | 00:04:02,070 --> 00:04:16,350 | looking for for months has finally been delivered. Okay, so the higher the week, we opened, traded up just to the high that inefficiency, which is the weekly |
| 19 | 00:04:16,350 --> 00:04:30,330 | volume imbalance. And then we traded down near the close of this moment bounce on the low end. So we had the high end of it and the low end of it. And the |
| 20 | 00:04:30,330 --> 00:04:45,720 | close was just about right at the load. So we traded up, met the high bid and then close back down on the daily chart on the Eurodollar. You can see how he |
| 21 | 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:56,310 | did in fact deliver here and painted right back down over top of that range from the low of the weekly volume of balance up to the high and then back down again. |
| 22 | 00:04:57,840 --> 00:05:09,660 | We had several targets From July 9, analysis video, you can find it on YouTube. And you can see this is where it began before this candlestick started trading, |
| 23 | 00:05:10,590 --> 00:05:18,810 | we were looking for a move back down into the weekly inversion gap and then draw to buy side, which it did here, and then draw up into the weekly volume and |
| 24 | 00:05:18,810 --> 00:05:30,900 | balance. So this right here completes a rather obvious illustration of what my concepts can do for you what you're looking for in terms of precision, why the |
| 25 | 00:05:30,900 --> 00:05:41,190 | price should behave a specific way. And right now, at this juncture, it's important for you to realize because you're all probably thinking, I just |
| 26 | 00:05:41,190 --> 00:05:52,980 | watched this pan out. I watched it on my own chart, I had annotations had the expectation to see it deliver and it delivered. Now, what's the next move ICT? |
| 27 | 00:05:52,980 --> 00:06:03,840 | What's the next thing? It's really important that you understand that we don't have to pick the next move right now. In fact, it can go both directions, it can |
| 28 | 00:06:03,840 --> 00:06:14,100 | go higher, the trade up into this fair pay gap, or it can dig deeper into this inefficiency here, this is a boss that unbalanced us on an efficiency, this is a |
| 29 | 00:06:14,100 --> 00:06:31,080 | CB cell zone bounced by zone efficiency. Either one of those can be traded to because of the 5050 likelihood, then we have to do what we have to drop down |
| 30 | 00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:46,290 | below the daily chart and be a day trader trade the intraday sessions, the London Open Session, the New York open session right up to the hourly chart here |
| 31 | 00:06:46,290 --> 00:06:58,020 | on Euro dollar trade through the buy side came up found some support at the low end of that weekly volume imbalance, then traded oil to the high then broke down |
| 32 | 00:07:00,180 --> 00:07:14,640 | and aggressively returned to the low the weekly volume imbalance. So on the upside, you want to have this inefficiency. And this inefficiency, both of those |
| 33 | 00:07:14,670 --> 00:07:26,340 | are in terms of the premium and or discount respectively. Those are the two areas of interest for me. I don't want to be overzealous and say something up |
| 34 | 00:07:26,340 --> 00:07:39,780 | here or something down here. Because I don't have Sunday's opening price yet. Right now, the times a little bit after four o'clock, my local time. So I'm |
| 35 | 00:07:39,780 --> 00:07:48,870 | keeping my cards close to my vest. This week. I'm going to allow Monday's trading to give you more insights about the weekly range. So it's okay for you |
| 36 | 00:07:48,870 --> 00:08:00,180 | to not know sometimes, I don't know. I never know what it's going to do when we open up on Sunday. Sunday's opening price is a mystery is absolutely unknowable, |
| 37 | 00:08:00,210 --> 00:08:14,340 | let's put it that way. So you have to submit yourself to not knowing what it is and then watching and seeing how we behave after that new week opening. Emini, |
| 38 | 00:08:14,340 --> 00:08:30,990 | s&p, on that hand side, weekly chart, NASDAQ emini futures, weekly chart on the right. Alright, so I mentioned that this inefficiency here would be a likely |
| 39 | 00:08:30,990 --> 00:08:42,900 | culprit, the draw up into, we did see that last week. This was the initial one here, which we saw that trade two and then went through it. Off the heels of |
| 40 | 00:08:42,900 --> 00:08:54,180 | this fear of a gap, which is what we've outlined. Also, we had interest in that weekly chart on NASDAQ, I mentioned that this is likely to be a upside draw, as |
| 41 | 00:08:54,180 --> 00:09:06,630 | well. And we got that delivered last week as well. And off the heels of the weekly very gap here in a discount, so it sent price higher. And while again, |
| 42 | 00:09:06,660 --> 00:09:16,290 | I'm not trying to call the top of the marketplace, I'm not trying to pick a top, it's hit an area where I think it's reasonable to see it come back down into |
| 43 | 00:09:16,290 --> 00:09:28,620 | this inefficiency here and over here respectively, for the s&p down into here. Now, if we take out the down close candle on the weekly basis, we take out that |
| 44 | 00:09:28,620 --> 00:09:41,970 | low then I would submit to the idea that we're probably creating an intermediate term high on the weekly chart for s&p. Same thing here if we trade below the |
| 45 | 00:09:41,970 --> 00:09:51,360 | down close candle here on a closing basis. So this is important and it has to be on a closing basis, both s&p and NASDAQ. If it were to close below this candles |
| 46 | 00:09:51,360 --> 00:10:01,800 | low, then I would likely assume that we are creating an intermediate term high. Not that that's the top not that it came They'll hire later on in the year just |
| 47 | 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:13,350 | means for right now, it would change gears for me. And then I would likely look for lower timeframe, sell setups. And focus there until I was shown that the |
| 48 | 00:10:13,350 --> 00:10:17,730 | market did in fact want to return back to being bullish. But right now, everything's still bullish. |
| 49 | 00:10:18,330 --> 00:10:29,040 | Nothing here indicates that there's a top nothing indicates here that there's a top either. Alright s&p On the left hand side daily chart, we have a immediate |
| 50 | 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:40,020 | rebalance, which is this candle here, and then the next down close candle, and then we opened, traded up to the previous close candle, and then rejected that. |
| 51 | 00:10:40,770 --> 00:10:52,350 | So unless it takes out Friday's high, I'm looking for the likelihood of a drawing back down into this inefficiency here because we didn't completely close |
| 52 | 00:10:52,350 --> 00:11:03,960 | it and see that. So it can trade down there and still be bullish. Longer term, it doesn't need to change anything by doing that, because what we have here is a |
| 53 | 00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:12,060 | swing low and trailed stop losses have been brought right below that low. And we have a little bit of inefficiency here between this candles high in this candles |
| 54 | 00:11:12,060 --> 00:11:23,850 | low. So it could trade down there and still not upset anything. And essentially, that's the midpoint of that lower inefficiency on the weekly chart. So it can |
| 55 | 00:11:23,850 --> 00:11:34,020 | trade down here, wick below this closing this entirely even go so far as to get down to consequent growth from this week. And then I'd like to see this area |
| 56 | 00:11:34,020 --> 00:11:49,650 | down here stay open as a breakaway cap. So all of that changes if we trade on a closing basis above Friday's high. Same thing here on NASDAQ. We have almost |
| 57 | 00:11:49,710 --> 00:12:04,170 | entirely closed in this fair value gap here. But I'd like to see it trade down into this area here into this order block. So I'm expecting and anticipating. |
| 58 | 00:12:05,370 --> 00:12:15,690 | And from my own analysis, predicting that we would likely trade down more into this inefficiency. Now if we gapped down, create a gap opening trade up and then |
| 59 | 00:12:15,690 --> 00:12:27,360 | go lower, then obviously, that might require a little bit more movement into this order block maybe mean threshold right in here. So it's a lot of wait and |
| 60 | 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:37,860 | see. And it's always the case before we open up on Sunday. So I can have a lot of different scenarios, I would favor or I would like to see or my concern would |
| 61 | 00:12:37,860 --> 00:12:51,090 | be around a specific scenario panning out in price on Sundays opening price going into Monday's trading. But all that is just I guess for the purpose of |
| 62 | 00:12:51,090 --> 00:13:00,450 | studying because I don't trade on Sundays anymore. And because we are in an area where it could go either way. I have to force myself to go down into lower |
| 63 | 00:13:00,450 --> 00:13:10,590 | timeframes to day trade the sessions. So I'll be looking for inefficiencies and or buy side or sell side liquidity for withdrawals on liquidity, and technically |
| 64 | 00:13:10,620 --> 00:13:24,570 | not have a bias intraday. It's an apt timeframe on Emini, s&p, you can see here on Sunday and Monday of last week, rallied up to down aggressive rally higher |
| 65 | 00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:36,900 | and traded up into the higher inefficiency on the weekly chart, weekly volume imbalances with indices. And then we broke lower trade back up into a balanced |
| 66 | 00:13:36,900 --> 00:13:46,230 | price range, which is because of this singular up candle, which is a by side analysis on efficiency in this city, which is a single candle sell side and |
| 67 | 00:13:46,230 --> 00:13:58,500 | balanced by side efficiency. These two areas here makes this a balanced price range. That's why we rally up and aggressively slammed lower, targeting the sell |
| 68 | 00:13:58,500 --> 00:14:16,620 | side and getting into the fear of getting out here. Right there. And then back up into that same balance price range extended to the right. Rate rejects all of |
| 69 | 00:14:16,620 --> 00:14:29,430 | this consolidation here. In my mind, I'm thinking this is too enticing for them. And even this over here is just too enticing for sellside liquidity rate. So |
| 70 | 00:14:29,430 --> 00:14:39,660 | sell sell liquidity here and sell side liquidity below these lows here. I would favor a run into that in the first part of the week. That's what I would like to |
| 71 | 00:14:39,660 --> 00:14:50,100 | see. But I am again reminding you that we have not yet opened for the new week yet. So Sunday's afternoon is where we're at here at the time we making this |
| 72 | 00:14:50,100 --> 00:15:03,450 | recording. And later in the evening and a few hours from now we will see the opening of the new week. So unless we get above This high here. I think it |
| 73 | 00:15:03,450 --> 00:15:17,760 | warrants a probe of lower selsun liquidity pools NASDAQ emini futures, 15 minute timeframe, this one here, I like the idea of getting the low this low, and |
| 74 | 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:33,150 | there's that little bit of an inefficiency. Okay, so as long as we don't trade above this high here, it looks heavy. And I would favor a move to that sell side |
| 75 | 00:15:33,180 --> 00:15:43,380 | and closing in this inefficiency right there. It's interesting to see how we had that little tiny little fairway get right there, it went right up into it, and |
| 76 | 00:15:43,380 --> 00:15:57,390 | then slammed it lower for the sell side below here. It's rather shallow. And I traded this on Friday. But the the continuation lower is what I'm interested in. |
| 77 | 00:15:58,380 --> 00:16:08,910 | And while I wouldn't be entirely afraid of it running above this short term high and then collapsing, it's better that it didn't do that. Because we have already |
| 78 | 00:16:08,910 --> 00:16:16,020 | with the vestment timeframe, we have a really nice market structure here. The fact that we went to a short term premium there to get into this fair value, |
| 79 | 00:16:16,020 --> 00:16:27,420 | gap, and breaker. So I would like to see a gap lower, try to fill a gap and reach into this area here. That's the scenario I'm looking for for NASDAQ |
| 80 | 00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:36,570 | doesn't mean I'm gonna be right don't bet the farm on I don't even try to take a trade on it to just observe it and in March, I won't be trading until we get to |
| 81 | 00:16:36,630 --> 00:16:45,180 | Tuesday. I want to use Monday's trading to provide me a better backdrop or foundation to what I think that weekly candlestick is going to do. Because as of |
| 82 | 00:16:45,180 --> 00:16:54,840 | right now, my mode of thought going forward for this particular trading week is intraday only, no daily bias. And that means we have to trade intraday |
| 83 | 00:16:55,500 --> 00:17:06,360 | volatility. That means buy side or sell side liquidity and or trading for inefficiencies. And that's it. So I know that's probably not what you want here, |
| 84 | 00:17:06,360 --> 00:17:18,780 | because you just watched me deliver a really wonderful month of July, in terms of new, a big run for a swing trader model on a daily chart. But they don't set |
| 85 | 00:17:18,780 --> 00:17:27,960 | up every day. They don't serve every week, and you have to sit on your hands. And that's what we're counseling you to do here today is to sit still relax and |
| 86 | 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:30,990 | let the next setup come to you and don't force it. |
| 87 | 00:17:36,570 --> 00:17:47,160 | Again, as a reminder, this was just a review and I'm just counseling you. I'm going very, very slow with this new week of trading and allowing Monday to give |
| 88 | 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:51,540 | me the bias for the week. And I'll talk to you next time. Be safe |