ICT YT - 2023-07-17 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Deep Dive Into Institutional Order Flow
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-07-17 09:39
Outline
00:17 - Institutional order flow.
- Discussion and lecture on institutional order flow.
- Institutional order flow using a dom
02:25 - Do you need to know the depth of the market?
- Why these are no different than any other indicator.
- The challenge of knowing where the markets will go.
- The first rule and goal is to know where the market is.
- The depth of market ladder.
08:52 - Why I’m not a fan of time based charts.
- The advantages of using a time-based chart.
- How institutional order flow is spoofed.
11:56 - How can you trust the basis of this data?
- How to trust the basis of this data.
- How to predict where orders will go.
- Expectations of bearish or bullish on the marketplace.
- Comparing and contrast the data.
17:56 - The difference between institutional order flow and mitigation.
- Institutional order flow vs institutional order flow.
- Lack of required tools for traders.
- Drawing liquidity is the number one thing.
- The weekly chart of the mitigation block.
23:15 - Knowing where the market is going to go.
- No justification for the markets to be where they are.
- Knowing where the market will go.
25:36 - The down close candlestick chart.
- Nasdaq closes higher ahead of the week open.
- Daily chart of the Nasdaq.
- Down close candle, order block propulsion.
- Weekly chart mitigation block, weekly chart mitigation.
30:36 - Where are we at right now vs where is it likely to go?
- Looking for things to start or instigate a rally.
- Risk-on scenario.
- A shift in market structure is in motion.
- High probability directional bias is now in place.
36:34 - Understanding the depth of market and footprint.
- The market is looking for justifications to go higher or lower.
- The footprint is a breaker.
39:08 - Can you trust these tools when you’re ahead of them?
- Trading the market minute by minute, not pre-recorded.
- Institutional order flow, not institutional order flow.
- The challenge of not knowing what to do.
- The advantage of knowing how to deliver
- Evidence that stops have been taken out of the market.
- Hourly chart of the price.
45:34 - How to trade with multiple time frames.
- Watching multiple timeframes and how they deliver.
- bullish vs bearish trading.
- Inefficiency above this point, where the draw on liquidity from that point is.
- Tape reading is where the skill set is derived.
51:43 - Understanding the fundamentals of the market.
- Why the market will go up or down.
- Classic support resistance is coming.
53:59 - Why this level would be sensitive to breakaways.
- Why this level is sensitive anyway.
- How the market from this high traded down.
- Breaking away gaps in the candlestick chart.
- The retail traders bible, john murphy.
59:12 - Transposing ideas from higher time frames to lower time frames.
- Taking information from higher time frames and transposing it.
- The advantage of depth-of-market.
- The next draw on liquidity near-term.
- How traders navigate the marketplace.
- Calm all of this stuff before it happens to the market.
- The candlesticks wick, constant encouragement.
01:05:50 - Stop loss management.
- What happens when the market rallies above the high.
- How to use stop loss.
01:08:27 - The fair value gap by classification.
- The five minute timeframe of the market.
- New york lunch macro.
- How to find a way through the charts.
- How the market reacts to higher prices.
01:14:04 - Focus on this area.
- Focus on this little segment of action.
- Transition into a four minute chart.
- Down close candle is a bullish order block.
- Order blocks have zero notice.
01:19:18 - Looking for bullish Pd arrays that are in discount.
- Looking for bullish pd arrays that are in discount.
- One form of bullish order block.
01:22:17 - Down close candle analysis.
- Down close candle and short term highs.
- Order flow bullish or bearish on down close candles.
- Looking at every down close candle as a potential stop run.
- Inversion and fair value gaps.
- Climbing a mountain, climbing a mountain.
- Using camtasia to record and record market action.
01:29:03 - Understanding fair value gaps inversion.
- Inversion of fair value gaps.
- Short-term low vs long-term high.
- Looking at potential finger holes to grab a higher price.
- Cutting through the candles.
01:34:49 - What happens once we clear the bounce price range?
- The back on the 15th and timeframe.
- Consolidating the markets ahead of new drivers.
01:37:35 - The inversion of the inversion.
- Market rallies aggressively.
- Nasdaq inversion, periodica, explosive run to the upside, retracement, failed run.
- Time distortion and consolidation in the market.
- New york and t gifGIFG.
- Retraces 20% of the weekly range.
- Nasdaq is more exposed to inefficiency and energy.
01:43:47 - Time distortion and measuring gaps.
- Why this is a measuring gap, not a breakaway gap.
- The liquidity below the 7am new york session time is a measure.
- Market value rips below the sell-side liquidity.
- How to use breakaway gaps and measure gaps.
Transcript
| 1 | 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:27,330 | ICT: Okay, folks, welcome back. Alright, so we are looking at a another discussion and lecture on institutional order flow. And before I get into it, I |
| 2 | 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:39,330 | borrowed this from a, another YouTuber, it's not important who it is. And I'm not saying that there's anything inherently bad about the other YouTuber. I'm |
| 3 | 00:00:39,330 --> 00:00:50,220 | not trying to sow discord or anything like that. But I do see a growing number of you in the comment section and folks that email me and or reach out to me |
| 4 | 00:00:50,220 --> 00:01:04,650 | through TradingView. The idea of order flow using a DOM, which has a depth of market, which is over here, on the left hand side, and you have the footprint, |
| 5 | 00:01:04,650 --> 00:01:14,250 | which is in the middle of the screen here, see all these little look real technical, right, let's institutional, and all this data here, Wow, that really |
| 6 | 00:01:14,250 --> 00:01:23,130 | makes your chart look amazing. When I was younger, I would have loved to have added all that on top of every other indicator I had on my chart, okay, because |
| 7 | 00:01:23,130 --> 00:01:35,280 | it would have made me feel like I was smarter, more informed. And I want you to think about what it is you're learning from me. Okay, if you're new, or if |
| 8 | 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:46,470 | you've been with me for a little bit of time. It can seem a little daunting, a little complicated, if you will. And it's because you're trying to rush through |
| 9 | 00:01:46,530 --> 00:01:55,200 | the process. And if I were to ask you to look at this, here, look at this information. What should you do with all this? Now I know how to use this |
| 10 | 00:01:55,200 --> 00:02:05,010 | information. I know how other people use it, I have friends and I also have students that use things like this in concert with what it is I do, and they are |
| 11 | 00:02:05,010 --> 00:02:16,770 | profitable. So I'm not trying to discourage you from using these tools, because if he feels like it helps you, if it's advantageous for you, it helps you trust |
| 12 | 00:02:17,460 --> 00:02:28,380 | your model. Everything I'm saying here today, if you feel uneasy watching the video, just turn it off. Okay, I'm trusting that you're all adults. Here, you |
| 13 | 00:02:28,380 --> 00:02:38,790 | can see through what it is I'm trying to convey, I'm answering the question of do I see the necessity for these types of things in trading? And in the short |
| 14 | 00:02:38,790 --> 00:02:48,360 | answer that way, for folks that want to know, right away and waste any more time, I don't believe that it's necessary to know these things. In fact, I'm |
| 15 | 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:59,400 | going to talk about why these are no different than any other indicator out there. Because it's a faith based premise that has to be applied to everything, |
| 16 | 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:13,590 | whether it's my content, my concepts, somebody else's stuff, or even this. institutions that may subscribe to these types of things here. It doesn't make |
| 17 | 00:03:13,620 --> 00:03:25,350 | prices go up and down. The only thing you really you're doing is what the left hand side or here the DOM depth of market. When you see orders coming forward on |
| 18 | 00:03:25,350 --> 00:03:37,410 | that display. They can be spoofed. Okay, spoofing is where an order can be placed above or below the marketplace, and pulled away before the market prints |
| 19 | 00:03:37,410 --> 00:03:46,920 | it. And it will look like it'll make it look like there's more buying or selling interest in a particular market. So how would that be any more advantageous or |
| 20 | 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:55,440 | different, really, for a trader to sit down look at the market and determine it's going to run from where we are right now at the market price to some |
| 21 | 00:03:55,470 --> 00:04:05,910 | previous support level, some are expected to go lower, or he's gonna go higher to some previous resistance level. Okay, so you're still met with that same |
| 22 | 00:04:05,910 --> 00:04:15,150 | challenge of knowing what you need to know where the markets gonna go. Okay, and there's so many people out there trying to be educators trying to be an |
| 23 | 00:04:15,150 --> 00:04:27,180 | influencer, trying to convince other people they can trade. They are stating these terms here. You don't have to predict the market. You don't have to know |
| 24 | 00:04:27,180 --> 00:04:36,210 | where the markets going. And this to me makes absolutely no sense. Okay? It makes no sense whatsoever. Because if you're looking at the depth of market up |
| 25 | 00:04:36,210 --> 00:04:47,070 | here, and the idea is that you think that there is more likely okay, this is what you're going to have to subscribe to using these types of tools. What's |
| 26 | 00:04:47,070 --> 00:04:56,850 | more likely that the market will start to go down to eat into the orders that are below the marketplace? Or is it more likely to go higher to eat into the |
| 27 | 00:04:56,850 --> 00:05:07,440 | orders that are above the marketplace? By I'm not concerned about those small little fluctuations in price. I mean, if you're sitting here trying to make your |
| 28 | 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:14,340 | two handles three handles those types of trades in, that's your mechanism to do those types of things, I'm not going to sit here and try to shoot holes through |
| 29 | 00:05:14,340 --> 00:05:20,760 | that, because this is simply I wouldn't, I would never do that. Okay, I'm not interested in that type of trading. I'm interested in knowing where the market |
| 30 | 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:31,860 | is going to reach to. And I teach my students to focus on that primarily in the early stages of their development. Depth of market or level two data requires |
| 31 | 00:05:31,860 --> 00:05:43,590 | you still to have an opinion. And that opinion may be incorrect. Much like my opinion about the marketplace, using your own concepts, may may be incorrect, |
| 32 | 00:05:43,860 --> 00:05:55,200 | just like anybody else, we're still met with the challenge of knowing the first rule and goal that I teach my students, which is to know where you trust that |
| 33 | 00:05:55,200 --> 00:06:03,660 | the market is more likely to draw to higher or lower, and not just for the sake of a few handles, because the depth of market may imply that there's more |
| 34 | 00:06:03,660 --> 00:06:12,780 | buyers, or sellers at any given time, just because there may be printing a depth of market ladder, which is what these things are called over here, these are |
| 35 | 00:06:12,780 --> 00:06:27,000 | letters, there may be more orders stacking above marketplace, or below the marketplace. And the idea generally is it's more likely doesn't mean it's going |
| 36 | 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:36,930 | to happen. But it's more likely that the market will gravitate towards where the larger stacking of orders, if it's more likely that it's going to go higher, and |
| 37 | 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:45,480 | justification should be made that you the depth of market a level two data, that ladder should show a lot more orders to the upside. And then when it gets there, |
| 38 | 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:56,970 | it should eat into that and start eroding those orders. That's it me is something that is synonymous with having a crutch. And that's not to be |
| 39 | 00:06:58,470 --> 00:07:08,310 | derogatory. And I don't mean it in a sense that, you know, nobody should use crutches while they're learning, or while they're using their model, if you feel |
| 40 | 00:07:08,310 --> 00:07:15,270 | like these things are helpful to you. And it helps you focus on sticking to one side of the marketplace, if you have a bias, if you have a draw on liquidity |
| 41 | 00:07:15,270 --> 00:07:24,540 | that you feel is going to be booked for that particular trading session or that day. And this helps you stay focused on it, then that's there's nothing to be |
| 42 | 00:07:24,540 --> 00:07:37,530 | worried about. There's nothing wrong about that, in my opinion, is all it is. And hopefully, you can permit me to have my own opinion here. But the idea of |
| 43 | 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:50,010 | using this stuff, for the sole basis of whether you should be a buyer or seller is a little bit myopic. Regardless of whether or not an XYZ trading firm or |
| 44 | 00:07:50,040 --> 00:08:03,030 | institution, or bank or whatever has them on their terminals in their trading floor, it's irrelevant. The market still has that puzzle of where's he going to |
| 45 | 00:08:03,030 --> 00:08:11,790 | go higher or lower. And when I teach my students to focus on where the most likely drawn liquidity is going to be, that's what you should be focusing on. |
| 46 | 00:08:12,450 --> 00:08:22,560 | Not all these little numbers in here, on a footprint or over here, worrying about is there more buyers or sellers above the marketplace, and it's likely to |
| 47 | 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:35,910 | keep going up. And I watch a lot of YouTubers that use these types of tools over here, like the depth of market, the DOM, it's DOM that dome. But the the idea of |
| 48 | 00:08:35,910 --> 00:08:43,860 | using it, if you watch any YouTubers that have it on their charts, or their live streaming, or maybe they recorded their their trades, and they still have it on |
| 49 | 00:08:43,860 --> 00:08:55,620 | there. It doesn't appear, at least from my observations, it doesn't appear that it's all that helpful. You know, even when I can see the market is likely to go |
| 50 | 00:08:55,620 --> 00:09:03,420 | higher or lower. And I'm viewing them live streaming or what's new something in the past when I can see what the market has done, because I've either traded it, |
| 51 | 00:09:03,420 --> 00:09:13,500 | or I can pull it up in chart form. I can see how they can be tricked into thinking, Oh, this, I think it's going to go to this price, because there's a |
| 52 | 00:09:13,500 --> 00:09:23,880 | lot of orders around that price. And I want you to think about how what it is I'm teaching you we're not looking at a necessity for these types of things to |
| 53 | 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:37,530 | confirm anything. Because my assumptions are you're allowing the market to be seen visually in chart form. And yes, through a time based chart, there's a lot |
| 54 | 00:09:37,530 --> 00:09:46,020 | of advantages. If you understand what I'm teaching, there's a lot of advantages to using a time based chart where some other individuals out there that don't |
| 55 | 00:09:46,050 --> 00:09:56,790 | have a subscription to the same view that I have may not like a time based chart and he have to augment that data and create a new format of a bar or a candle or |
| 56 | 00:09:56,790 --> 00:10:09,690 | something to that effect. So Just know going into this discussion, I will be stating why I'm not a fan of this information or these tools. Do not let me |
| 57 | 00:10:09,690 --> 00:10:17,730 | change your mind, it feels like it helps you. If you're profitable, and you feel comfortable using them, just because I may be your mentor, |
| 58 | 00:10:19,020 --> 00:10:28,950 | don't let me pry these things out of your hand. You may grow out of them on your own over time, or you may stick with them, and they may be part of your |
| 59 | 00:10:28,950 --> 00:10:37,920 | repertoire. And there's nothing wrong with that as long as you're using them in the capacity that allows you to focus and allows you to trust your model, if |
| 60 | 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:47,580 | that's what you're using them for. There's absolutely zero hindrances, there's nothing I would never say anything adversely about it. But for someone to come |
| 61 | 00:10:47,580 --> 00:10:57,630 | out and say this is this is how you read institutional order flow. This is this not your reading order flow. But institutional order flow is not this is not an |
| 62 | 00:10:57,630 --> 00:11:06,990 | institutional refer to me. This is this reporting numbers that can be spoofed. That means that they can pull those orders, that means that you may see them |
| 63 | 00:11:06,990 --> 00:11:19,050 | flash on the screen. But doesn't necessarily mean when price gets to it, that those orders are still there. Many trading firms and quote unquote institutions |
| 64 | 00:11:19,050 --> 00:11:32,700 | have been fined many, many times over. Some of them are repeat offenders. Some of these trolls I've had over the years are actually guilty of this. And they |
| 65 | 00:11:32,700 --> 00:11:44,310 | were penalized for spoofing, messing around with placing orders in to make it look like there's a more stronger interest to buy or sell a particular vehicle |
| 66 | 00:11:44,310 --> 00:11:58,950 | or instrument or market. And if there's an opening for manipulation to the data, and that can absolutely be done here. How can you really in my opinion, this is |
| 67 | 00:11:58,950 --> 00:12:11,190 | my opinion. Now, I'm not trying to convince you do not use these things. But this is my opinion, how can you trust the basis of this data, if it absolutely |
| 68 | 00:12:11,190 --> 00:12:24,150 | can be manipulated. If it can be manipulated to make it look like there is a fake buying interest, where orders can be placed above the market price, or |
| 69 | 00:12:24,150 --> 00:12:33,570 | below the market price. And the interpretation of that would be seen collectively in retail trading, as there's a lot of that a lot of orders below |
| 70 | 00:12:33,570 --> 00:12:41,760 | or below the marketplace. And the tendency is to trust that it's going to more likely go to where there are more orders. And that's not necessarily what |
| 71 | 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:49,530 | happens. Now, I'm sure some of you that use this stuff that don't like me, you're gonna come out with new 10 Different examples where look, we're at work, |
| 72 | 00:12:49,530 --> 00:12:57,120 | look where we're at, but I promise you, I can go on a live stream and show this stuff and it not working, where my stuff is absolutely running circles around |
| 73 | 00:12:57,120 --> 00:13:05,430 | it. So permit me to say that in this video. And I promise I won't be any more derogatory than that. But now from this point on, I want to kind of show you and |
| 74 | 00:13:05,430 --> 00:13:13,320 | compare and contrast what it is I'm trying to focus on in my teaching so that way you're as a student, you're looking at the right way. And if you feel like |
| 75 | 00:13:13,350 --> 00:13:22,560 | you're you feel pressured by other people that will say you're you're not learning, real order flow. Now, we're not messing around with these things here. |
| 76 | 00:13:22,590 --> 00:13:34,110 | That's true, because it's not necessary. Because I want you to understand something. Listen to the name of this stuff here. Okay, the footprint, that |
| 77 | 00:13:34,110 --> 00:13:46,740 | means you're looking at something that's already happened, how many orders were in this part of the candle, this part of the bar? Okay, it's already happened. |
| 78 | 00:13:48,090 --> 00:13:56,580 | Where if I ever told you go into charts and say, here is how many buyers and sellers have been so repeat what they've done or use that information. And |
| 79 | 00:13:56,580 --> 00:14:05,190 | you've never heard me say that. I'm always telling you to predict where price is going to go. And then where you think it's going to go that draw on liquidity |
| 80 | 00:14:06,300 --> 00:14:15,900 | above the marketplace or below the marketplace, it's going to go up to take out buy stops or it's going to go up to reprise to an inefficiency. Some kind of |
| 81 | 00:14:15,900 --> 00:14:33,000 | fair value gap or city could be a boiler imbalance. It could be a institutional Orko entry drill. It could be a consequent corrosion of a wick. There's very |
| 82 | 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:40,470 | specific things that we're looking for, but not every single market at that timeframe in that chart fractal, that portion of price that you're studying is |
| 83 | 00:14:40,470 --> 00:14:49,590 | going to have every single thing that I have as a PD array, something that I teach you to focus on, but the ones that are actually there, you have to |
| 84 | 00:14:49,590 --> 00:15:02,220 | consider them and know what to do with them and navigate them. So I'm teaching you absolutely how to predict price because How else are you going to use this |
| 85 | 00:15:02,220 --> 00:15:13,830 | information? And trust it posed the question to you like this. If you are bearish on the marketplace, doesn't it make sense if you're gonna be using these |
| 86 | 00:15:13,830 --> 00:15:27,930 | tools that you're expecting, the depth of market does show a lot more orders below the marketplace a lot more interest to draw price into lower prices. |
| 87 | 00:15:28,500 --> 00:15:44,460 | Because your bias, your directional bias, your analysis, you are bullish or bearish. So you're going to go in into this data, looking for those things to |
| 88 | 00:15:44,460 --> 00:15:56,130 | justify what your eliminate your analysis. So I don't go to the middleman. These are all middleman ideas to me. And it's helpful in the beginning, if you don't |
| 89 | 00:15:56,130 --> 00:16:03,180 | know what you're doing, and how to navigate price action, and you want to see the underpinnings of what the markets doing and how it books price, that's |
| 90 | 00:16:03,180 --> 00:16:19,860 | wonderful. But my PDAs are always always the head of this. It's always ahead of it. Look at what I did this week with the analysis on the July 9 2023. video I |
| 91 | 00:16:19,890 --> 00:16:27,090 | did on Sunday before the market opened up, I told you exactly what we'd be seeing told you what would be expected in terms of price delivery in it |
| 92 | 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:43,410 | delivered perfectly flawlessly. No necessity on having any of this stuff here. So really, I want you to compare and contrast. If this isn't measuring Minute by |
| 93 | 00:16:43,410 --> 00:16:54,600 | Minute, second by second real events of transactions, because that's what this all is, is showing you is transactions. But just because there was a certain |
| 94 | 00:16:54,600 --> 00:17:04,440 | number of buyers or sellers at a particular price at any given time. And just because there are more orders above or below the market price in the DOM has |
| 95 | 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:20,640 | absolutely no bearing on future price has absolutely no bearing on the future direction of price. The market stay stagnant and stays this consolidating. When |
| 96 | 00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:31,140 | this stuff was a big buzz, when I first started using it, when level two became a thing, and I'm old enough now wants to transition from Open Outcry into |
| 97 | 00:17:31,140 --> 00:17:39,030 | electronic trading. When these tools were made available to us, everybody was clamoring to it because level two, that was the thing, you were really informed |
| 98 | 00:17:39,030 --> 00:17:49,770 | if you had this information. Where's all the yachts? Where's every word all the millionaires and the millionaires if it was gonna make you institutional minded, |
| 99 | 00:17:51,030 --> 00:18:06,510 | where's all the rich people that came up out of nowhere using it? Right. So not to discourage you. But when I say institutional order foil, it's not this. |
| 100 | 00:18:07,950 --> 00:18:18,570 | You'll you'll hear people say it doesn't teach orderflow I don't teach this stuff. Because this stuff I have no faith in. And I know how to use it. But I |
| 101 | 00:18:18,570 --> 00:18:29,430 | completely cut it out of my analysis because I don't need it. You might need it. You may find helpfulness from it. It may allow you to feel closer to the |
| 102 | 00:18:29,430 --> 00:18:36,540 | marketplace. And if that's what you're feeling by doing it, that there's nothing wrong with that. Absolutely nothing wrong with it. Like I've already stated |
| 103 | 00:18:36,540 --> 00:18:50,130 | earlier, I have friends in this industry. And I have students that use this stuff in conjunction with what I'm teaching, and they're profitable. So I'm not |
| 104 | 00:18:50,130 --> 00:18:59,550 | here to say this doesn't work. Okay, what I'm doing is I'm drawing a stark contrast between when I say institutional order flow, what am I talking about, |
| 105 | 00:18:59,580 --> 00:19:13,050 | in contrast to this stuff here? That's what we're going to do. Okay. So let's move on into the discussion here. We're going to look at a case study on NASDAQ. |
| 106 | 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:22,650 | Okay, and I'm going to spare you level two data, because it's not required, it's not necessary. And I want you to think about how it is that I teach you and how |
| 107 | 00:19:22,650 --> 00:19:31,830 | I've shown a plethora of examples of before the fact where the market is going to go how it's going to get there, not just here we are at point A, I believe |
| 108 | 00:19:31,830 --> 00:19:40,200 | it's going to maybe get up to point B that's not what I say. I say this is where I think the draw of liquidity is. That means I'm cosigned that's a directional |
| 109 | 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:53,010 | bias. That means I have made my expectations known publicly before hand and it's not a two PIP or five handle expectation. These are pretty considered price |
| 110 | 00:19:53,010 --> 00:20:07,770 | moves. And I'm not utilizing anything that is clear Basically lumped into order flow, because folks that use that information when I say, I'm trading with |
| 111 | 00:20:07,770 --> 00:20:15,900 | institutional order flow, I'm seeing institutional order flow in price action. I'm going to cover that again today. I've done it in the past, but I want to |
| 112 | 00:20:15,900 --> 00:20:21,570 | present a little bit deeper presentation about it. And I want you to think about the |
| 113 | 00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:36,810 | the lack of required tools that other people, other traders feel like they have to have, when I have nothing on my chart is simply a candlestick chart. And I'm |
| 114 | 00:20:36,870 --> 00:20:48,720 | as long as I can see what time it is, and where we are in the range. That's it. That's all you need. So the number one thing is drawing liquidity. So I was |
| 115 | 00:20:48,720 --> 00:21:04,380 | bullish. Obviously, I mentioned that last Sunday. And today is July 16 2003, at the time of this recording. So last Sunday, July 9 2023, I had outlined my |
| 116 | 00:21:04,380 --> 00:21:16,800 | expectation of higher prices on E Mini s&p, NASDAQ, higher prices on Euro dollar and lower prices on the dollar index, it was a clean sweep everything delivered |
| 117 | 00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:28,920 | as expected. They were not small moves or rather large. And I want to go into detail as to why I believed that NASDAQ would go higher. And I want you to take |
| 118 | 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:40,080 | a look at the chart here. upper left hand corner, this is the weekly chart. This right here, this candle right here is a mitigation block. Now, I don't talk too |
| 119 | 00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:56,460 | much about it. But it is basically the opposite of a breaker but they are still both mitigation. In essence. Now we have a high a low and a higher high, no |
| 120 | 00:21:57,090 --> 00:22:10,260 | lower high you see that, that low between it is a mitigation block. If this high here was taken out with a higher run here than that would be a bearish breaker. |
| 121 | 00:22:12,390 --> 00:22:29,070 | Bearish breakers are much more stronger in terms of resistance than a mitigation and mitigation block can be traded through. So in terms of how I use mitigation |
| 122 | 00:22:29,070 --> 00:22:40,350 | blocks, I typically side with using them as targets more so than entry. Because they can be traded through breakers are kind of like they're they're pretty |
| 123 | 00:22:40,380 --> 00:22:47,430 | formidable in the path of price action and doesn't mean that it can't go through them. It doesn't mean I've never had a losing trade using a breaker because I |
| 124 | 00:22:47,430 --> 00:22:56,940 | have. But mitigation blocks are better used for targeting purposes, I was using this one here with the expectation that the NASDAQ could try to gravitate |
| 125 | 00:22:56,940 --> 00:23:06,270 | towards that if it were to go any higher, this small little fear of a gap there and obviously the biocide above it. So I have not caught a high in the NASDAQ or |
| 126 | 00:23:06,270 --> 00:23:16,410 | ES. In fact, you've heard me emphatically state many times throughout the commentaries and or Twitter that I am not calling a high. And it's important for |
| 127 | 00:23:16,410 --> 00:23:26,310 | you not to try to do that to look at this keeps drilling higher. It's grinding people down. Anybody wants to sell short this mark. And believe me, I'm in the |
| 128 | 00:23:26,310 --> 00:23:33,990 | opinion as well, that there's no justification for the markets to be where they are, at least for equities. Your stock should not be trading where they're at. |
| 129 | 00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:42,840 | But we have to trust order flow, what kind of order flow, the things I started to show you in the beginning of this presentation, I don't subscribe to those |
| 130 | 00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:53,310 | things. I don't have any faith in my faith is based on where I believe the market is gonna go. So yes, I believe I'm pretty good at predicting where price |
| 131 | 00:23:53,310 --> 00:24:01,200 | is going to go because I have experienced he's doing it. And I have tools to help me to do that. And I also can see where orders are going to be anyway |
| 132 | 00:24:01,230 --> 00:24:12,300 | before your ladders, your depth of market before your footprint confirms what I already and my students already expect. In terms of price delivery. We already |
| 133 | 00:24:12,300 --> 00:24:21,690 | know there's going to be buying and selling between the two price points that we're at that that's a given. So knowing where the markets gonna go to, that's a |
| 134 | 00:24:21,690 --> 00:24:31,860 | directional bias. You listen, at some point, folks, unless you trade options and your delta neutral, you have to have a directional bias. There's no way around |
| 135 | 00:24:31,860 --> 00:24:46,890 | it. You have to otherwise you're writing options. So if we're trading futures, and we're trying to be a buyer or seller, I mean if you're going long then you |
| 136 | 00:24:46,890 --> 00:24:57,000 | have a bias that's going higher. So why why argue with that? Why call it something that it's not you're predicting price you're trying to predict price |
| 137 | 00:24:57,030 --> 00:25:08,850 | then say we don't I need to predict the future price direction. Well, yes, you do if you want to be profitable, or at least consistently profitable. But you |
| 138 | 00:25:08,850 --> 00:25:16,290 | have to have an understanding of where the market can gravitate towards. And that's what I teach my students as the first thing they come out of the gate |
| 139 | 00:25:16,290 --> 00:25:25,230 | with with me is knowing where price is likely to go. If you don't have that skill set, you will not be consistently profitable, period, end of story. |
| 140 | 00:25:25,410 --> 00:25:37,980 | There's nothing else to discuss. So my opinion was in the beginning of the week, I wanted to see us gravitate towards this mitigation block. It would be above |
| 141 | 00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:47,280 | the relative equal highs here that had already been cleared through here. And we consolidated markets don't talk like that. Okay, and it was more likely they |
| 142 | 00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:59,370 | were going to expand higher it did it reached into the mitigation block. It actually closed right on it. So it's rather decent, isn't it. So ahead of the |
| 143 | 00:25:59,370 --> 00:26:15,000 | week open on Sunday, July 9 2023. We were expecting price to go higher. And we have this candle right here. Now on this candle stick chart here in the lower |
| 144 | 00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:23,520 | left hand corner. This is a daily chart of the NASDAQ. Everything that I'm teaching you here, folks, you may be primarily a forex trader, okay. Everything |
| 145 | 00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:33,480 | that I'm teaching you right here works on every asset class, I would not do anything different. So that way, if you're frustrated, because I'm not talking |
| 146 | 00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:43,560 | about forex, like I did a lot before. I'm teaching through this medium here, because this is where I actually got started. In 1992, I was commodity trader. |
| 147 | 00:26:43,950 --> 00:26:55,440 | So this is where I started. Later on in my career, I moved and transition to Forex. There's a lot of things that prevent me from wanting to trade Forex. So |
| 148 | 00:26:55,440 --> 00:27:04,290 | that's the reason why I'm teaching with this medium here. Everything that I'm teaching you here, with futures index trading works in forex, too. It works in |
| 149 | 00:27:04,290 --> 00:27:12,630 | commodity trading, it works in gold, it works in metals, and my students, I can't swear by it, because I've never traded crypto. But I have students that |
| 150 | 00:27:12,630 --> 00:27:21,840 | have been profitable trading crypto using this information. So that way, at least you know that somebody else out there other than me has some experience |
| 151 | 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:33,600 | with it because I don't have any experience trading crypto. So if we see this down, close candle, after, if you look at the weekly chart here, there's a small |
| 152 | 00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:47,610 | little fear baked right in here. That's this one here on the daily the market traded higher there. And then we have this down close candle, which is right |
| 153 | 00:27:47,610 --> 00:27:57,120 | above and digging into this down closed candle. This is an order block, it's bullish, this is a propulsion block. Propulsion blocks are order blocks by |
| 154 | 00:27:57,120 --> 00:28:07,560 | themselves. But the way you differentiate what they are and how they're used is this down close candle digs into a previous down closed candle. So an order |
| 155 | 00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:17,520 | block that has another order block that digs into it. Proportion blocks, you never want to see a closing price below mean threshold mean threshold on an |
| 156 | 00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:28,830 | order block is the 50% level. We worked down through it but then closed here. This one here. We went down through it and closed right here. We wick down |
| 157 | 00:28:28,830 --> 00:28:39,210 | through it and closed up here. So yes, we had the movement through the mean threshold, but we didn't close below it. So that still keeps this down close |
| 158 | 00:28:39,210 --> 00:28:53,520 | candle valid as a propulsion blah. I promise you we're going somewhere. Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday's trading, all of this movement here was |
| 159 | 00:28:53,550 --> 00:29:06,270 | just returning back into this gap. This tail on this candlestick we treat wicks and tails on candlesticks as gaps. midpoint of that gap or tail on that candle |
| 160 | 00:29:06,540 --> 00:29:15,810 | is consequent encouragement, extend out in time, you can see this exactly where we were trading on Monday. It did not violate the rules that make a proportion |
| 161 | 00:29:15,810 --> 00:29:29,790 | block. invalid. market closes here. And now we open the next day we open trade down, rally back up and have a close. So the next two days we had news, we had |
| 162 | 00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:39,720 | pretty good economic calendar events for the rest of the week. And it sent price parabolic above the relative equal highs. So that draw on liquidity is the |
| 163 | 00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:49,230 | weekly chart. Mitigation block. Okay, so we're not going to say that that actual price was 15 693. But we're just going to use it for the sake of discussion |
| 164 | 00:29:49,260 --> 00:29:58,350 | because I don't know off the top my head what the actual price was. I haven't noted here. You're invited to do that in your own study. Don't just take what I |
| 165 | 00:29:58,350 --> 00:30:06,390 | show in talk about in the video you Go in there and weigh out whether your charts show the same thing. Because you want your own proof, you don't want to |
| 166 | 00:30:06,390 --> 00:30:13,050 | just take my word on anything. In fact, that's the best way to do it. Challenge yourself and challenge my observations, |
| 167 | 00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:21,000 | was it really they're in charge? Because you just taking my word for anyone else's word for anything is not something you should do, especially investing |
| 168 | 00:30:21,210 --> 00:30:33,120 | and financial advice. So this movement here, this was fully expected. We're expecting this bullishness in higher prices on NASDAQ. We're expecting it and |
| 169 | 00:30:33,150 --> 00:30:46,740 | yes as well, you mean the s&p. But we look for things to start, or instigate a price rally higher, or a price decline lower. And we frame it on the basis of |
| 170 | 00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:56,910 | where are we at right now? versus where is it likely to go. So if we think that the price is going to gravitate up to this area here, and we'll call it |
| 171 | 00:30:56,910 --> 00:31:09,450 | 15,006 93. And point seven, five, if we start the week here Monday, and Tuesday and Wednesday, and Thursday and Friday, we expect each daily candle to gravitate |
| 172 | 00:31:09,450 --> 00:31:18,570 | towards that level. Even if you didn't pick that level, if you felt that this fair bet you get was a reason to keep going higher, that's fine. That's nothing. |
| 173 | 00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:28,770 | There's nothing wrong with that. But this mitigation block is below that fear Vega. And if you were using the relative equal highs as a drawl and liquidity, |
| 174 | 00:31:28,770 --> 00:31:39,150 | there's nothing wrong with that either. Remember, the only thing we're doing is primarily looking for the expansion either higher or lower on the weekly |
| 175 | 00:31:39,150 --> 00:31:48,120 | candlestick, that sets our bias for the week. So is it more likely to see where price was consolidating here? Is it more likely it's going to drop down after |
| 176 | 00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:56,040 | we've already went into this fair pay gap here, we did that. And then we consolidated here the previous week. And then we start a new week here, tray |
| 177 | 00:31:56,040 --> 00:32:03,090 | down a little bit and then reject it, which is all that rejection is based on this consequent growth on this daily candle right there. That's where the low |
| 178 | 00:32:03,090 --> 00:32:14,700 | that week was formed. So this is primed to this obviously expand higher and aggressively above these relatively equal highs on a daily chart. So there's buy |
| 179 | 00:32:14,700 --> 00:32:23,520 | orders resting above that. markets don't talk like this, folks, they don't do it. And since the weekly and a daily chart is showing this pattern, it's more |
| 180 | 00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:31,110 | likely to go higher, especially since we were bearish on dollar, not just bearish a little bit, but we were exceedingly bearish expecting it to reach for |
| 181 | 00:32:31,110 --> 00:32:41,400 | a larger pool of cells on liquidity. So if that is the case, that means it's definitely a risk on scenario, meaning all assets have the likelihood to go |
| 182 | 00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:55,020 | higher, Euro pound gold, all other asset classes are free to move higher because it's risk on. And we saw a huge risk on event this past week where most asset |
| 183 | 00:32:55,020 --> 00:33:10,200 | classes went up while the dollar crashed. Over here on an hourly chart, I want to notice this little shaded area here. That's the propulsion block. That's this |
| 184 | 00:33:10,230 --> 00:33:21,120 | whole range here but visible on a hourly chart. So we have relatively equal lows here, we drop down into it. We trade above this short term high right there. |
| 185 | 00:33:21,150 --> 00:33:32,970 | That's all it needs to add. That's a shift in market structure, it doesn't need to close above it. It is now set thing in motion that we're going higher doesn't |
| 186 | 00:33:32,970 --> 00:33:41,520 | mean you can't have retracements but look where it retraces if you take this propulsion block right here, and he divided it in half. That's mean threshold. |
| 187 | 00:33:42,420 --> 00:33:53,040 | That's what this drop was going to right there is going right there. And it's also cleaning up these smooth edges in the bodies. But a man that's not smooth |
| 188 | 00:33:53,070 --> 00:34:03,540 | edges ICT look at this wick right here at his tail and look at this right here. Look at the bodies, the bodies tell you the story. That's the narrative, the |
| 189 | 00:34:03,540 --> 00:34:10,050 | wicks do all the damage. That's the stuff that everybody gets hurt by, you get stopped out. And you don't want to go back into the marketplace. That's their, |
| 190 | 00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:20,670 | that's their purpose. Reading price action with a time based chart and focusing on the bodies of the candles. If you just saw these right here like this, and |
| 191 | 00:34:20,670 --> 00:34:28,830 | there was no wicks or tails on your candlesticks. If you took that completely off your chart. This would look like smooth edges. And that's all this was |
| 192 | 00:34:28,830 --> 00:34:40,380 | trading down into mean threshold, which is the entire range from high to low. split that in half. That's this level right here. That's occurring, right in |
| 193 | 00:34:40,380 --> 00:34:51,690 | this level, digging into after we had a shift in market structure. So what am I saying here? At this point, right there that's slightly higher high than this |
| 194 | 00:34:51,690 --> 00:35:02,250 | one, because we've had sell side taken there. Now we have by side we're bullish. So we have now met the minimum criteria. For high probability, directional bias. |
| 195 | 00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:16,980 | So now we can absolutely predict higher prices, we can trust that higher prices are likely to go. We're up in here, this negation block. So if we're looking for |
| 196 | 00:35:16,980 --> 00:35:26,370 | a 15,609, three level, and we're down here, and we dropped down to mean threshold, at that point, does the market want to rally away from it? Sure, |
| 197 | 00:35:26,370 --> 00:35:37,950 | looks like it does the mean, tries one more time, digs into it, but look where the bodies are showing. They're shown it's respecting that propulsion block, |
| 198 | 00:35:38,220 --> 00:35:47,310 | right there, we've already did the damage, you're going down into it. And here bodies are supporting the high end of the propulsion block that shaded area. And |
| 199 | 00:35:47,310 --> 00:35:54,600 | then we want to see does the market want to rally? Well, here's the thing. If you're looking at depth of market, or if you're looking at footprint, you're |
| 200 | 00:35:54,600 --> 00:36:07,290 | going to start seeing all the things that would justify the market wanting to go higher. We already knew that. We already knew all those things. And from here, |
| 201 | 00:36:08,070 --> 00:36:15,330 | as soon as we get these candlesticks showing this, and this candlestick closes the next candle here, and it drops down and touches this high in this blue |
| 202 | 00:36:15,330 --> 00:36:26,880 | shaded area, which is this candle that range on the daily chart, we're working with an hourly chart here now I know that we're likely to go higher where we |
| 203 | 00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:34,890 | have all this sell side and bounced by sending efficiency. So basically, this candlesticks low, and then we have the buy side above this high here. There's |
| 204 | 00:36:34,890 --> 00:36:48,900 | buy stocks resting above that. But this also is another pattern. It's a breaker. So I know that everyone that uses a depth of market uses a footprint, they're |
| 205 | 00:36:48,900 --> 00:36:55,950 | going to be looking for justifications to go higher or lower. The folks that will be looking at it with the expectation that the market's going to go higher. |
| 206 | 00:36:56,490 --> 00:37:06,420 | The evidence that they're seeking will be there. Every instance of it would be reflected in those tools, I don't need to see that I already know that that Mark |
| 207 | 00:37:06,420 --> 00:37:16,800 | is going to go towards these levels. It's driven that way, not because of buying and selling pressure. I have already arrived at these ideas before the markets |
| 208 | 00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:29,670 | even opened up before the market even printed its first book. On Sundays opening, we had already codified the expectation that these markets were going |
| 209 | 00:37:29,670 --> 00:37:39,810 | to go higher, and to where there was no need. There was no way for me to look at depth of market or a footprint to justify those things because the market hadn't |
| 210 | 00:37:39,810 --> 00:37:51,480 | already done anything yet. So while the markets were static, using experience using institutional order flow, reading the tea leaves, okay. Reading price |
| 211 | 00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:59,550 | action. So for the folks out there to say, you know if you're reading tape, since this is reading tape, folks, you're watching price and how gyrates off of |
| 212 | 00:37:59,550 --> 00:38:07,380 | my PDAs. That's reading the tape. When someone says show me your order book, show me your order book. That's the stuff at the beginning of this video that I |
| 213 | 00:38:07,380 --> 00:38:18,930 | don't need. Before your order book before your depth of market before your ladder, in your footprint tools. Start telling you anything I have already. I'm |
| 214 | 00:38:18,930 --> 00:38:34,110 | lightyears ahead the footprint. That's something that is happened. This is where the buyers were this is how many orders were bought and sold at these specific |
| 215 | 00:38:34,110 --> 00:38:44,070 | levels. Okay, that's wonderful. That's wonderful history. I loved it when I was in school. But who has a better perspective, folks? Okay, someone that's ahead |
| 216 | 00:38:44,070 --> 00:38:54,600 | of you on the path that you're walking right now. Someone that is a quarter mile up the road. They've already walked this path multiple times, many times they |
| 217 | 00:38:54,600 --> 00:39:03,090 | know the terrain. They know where the sticks are out and thorns are and who has the better perspective, you as an inexperienced student in the marketplace, |
| 218 | 00:39:03,450 --> 00:39:17,850 | someone that's new, maybe you started in 2015. You're looking back. And wondering, can you trust these tools, when I'm ahead of you and experience. And |
| 219 | 00:39:17,850 --> 00:39:26,250 | I can read these charts without any of that stuff. And I know where you're going to see new buying entries, you're going to see retracements to take out |
| 220 | 00:39:26,250 --> 00:39:34,050 | liquidity you're going to see inefficiencies and how they're going to use this inefficiency. And I've proven this numerous times with live executions. I've |
| 221 | 00:39:34,050 --> 00:39:44,250 | called the market minute by minute. Live on live stream not pre recorded. You have all sat there and watch me do this. That is reading the tape. I don't need |
| 222 | 00:39:44,250 --> 00:39:53,550 | these gimmicks to talk about what's happened already. I don't need to see that order book. I'm going to tell you when a mark is going to go before the order |
| 223 | 00:39:53,550 --> 00:40:02,910 | books talk about it. That's what my students are able to do. You may not have that skill set yet. if you will, over time, it doesn't happen overnight. It |
| 224 | 00:40:02,910 --> 00:40:13,080 | doesn't happen real quick. But I promise you the idea of these things that are being promoted as this is institutional order flow, it's not institutional order |
| 225 | 00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:13,440 | flow. |
| 226 | 00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:25,920 | All you're seeing is a glorified time and date, stamp. Time and Sales, it's it. That's all you're seeing. It's a, it's a repackaged edition of that same |
| 227 | 00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:36,360 | information. That's wonderful. That's wonderful for data collection and, and studying, okay, it's wonderful. But you still are left with the puzzle of where |
| 228 | 00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:47,220 | his price is gonna go higher or lower. And in between where we are at market price, how will it behave? Well, let's talk about that. If this is the |
| 229 | 00:40:47,220 --> 00:40:52,740 | propulsion block, and we've already seen it, dig down into here, I'm not looking at ladders, I'm not looking at depth of market, I'm not gonna look at the level |
| 230 | 00:40:52,740 --> 00:40:58,500 | two data. I'm not looking at anything harmonic, I'm not looking at animal patterns, and the OIC and Elliott Wave, I'm not looking again, I'm not looking |
| 231 | 00:40:58,500 --> 00:41:14,340 | at anything. But this price action right here. Now, what's more simplified, trying to determine the efficacy of a footprint, a depth of market, and then not |
| 232 | 00:41:14,340 --> 00:41:25,260 | trading with the expectation of predicting price? To me, that's, that's insanity. Like, how could you possibly know what to do? And then it's not |
| 233 | 00:41:25,260 --> 00:41:33,240 | surprising when you see everybody out there that are trying to live stream and use these tools, they fumble, or they're not very confident when it is noon to |
| 234 | 00:41:33,240 --> 00:41:42,540 | discussing what it is they want to do. And one of the things I get challenged with is, you know, I, I'm arrogant, no, I'm confident in my students that are |
| 235 | 00:41:42,540 --> 00:41:50,160 | profitable, and they know what they're doing. They're confident, and it seems like arrogance, the people that can't do it. And I'm just trying to communicate |
| 236 | 00:41:50,160 --> 00:41:57,630 | to you in a manner where I don't want you to view me as trying to be arrogant, I want you to learn how to do this yourself. If I was trying to hold it back from |
| 237 | 00:41:57,630 --> 00:42:07,320 | you, then I can see your argument. But I'm trying my best to teach it to you. And I'm trying to disarm you. For those that are standing here trying to arm |
| 238 | 00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:16,140 | wrestle me and say, you know, this is fake or you don't know what you're doing. It's always hindsight when I have literally scores of executions, and live |
| 239 | 00:42:16,140 --> 00:42:25,650 | streams where I've called these things before they happen. And your ladders and your depth of market and all this footprint stuff hasn't even spoke to you yet. |
| 240 | 00:42:27,450 --> 00:42:35,400 | I'm lightyears ahead, I'm ahead of you on the path. Okay, and I'm looking back at you. I know where I've come from. I've been exactly where all of you are. |
| 241 | 00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:42,000 | I've been there. And I understand how confusing it is. And you're trying to determine what you're supposed to do with this information. It's a lot of stuff |
| 242 | 00:42:42,000 --> 00:42:52,110 | to understand. I understand that's normal. I didn't say it's going to be easy. But I will make it easy. And how I'm teaching you this year, there's no other |
| 243 | 00:42:52,110 --> 00:43:01,440 | way to simplify it. There really isn't it says you have to keep doing it for a while and you'll learn how to do it. But when I look back at you as someone |
| 244 | 00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:14,490 | that's starting, I have the advantage of knowing how price will deliver. I know how market structure will use specific names that I've dubbed PDE arrays, you |
| 245 | 00:43:14,490 --> 00:43:23,100 | don't know where they're going to form or how they're going to form I do. And I've proven that with live streams live with the lowest latency that YouTube can |
| 246 | 00:43:23,100 --> 00:43:34,560 | permit. So there's no excuses. There's absolutely no arguments. There's none. order books are not advantageous to me, I don't need those things. And if you're |
| 247 | 00:43:34,560 --> 00:43:42,420 | learning how to do what it is I'm teaching you, you don't need those tools either. But if you want to use them to help you, and you find advantages in |
| 248 | 00:43:42,420 --> 00:43:50,910 | using it, that's wonderful. I'm not going to tell you to put it down. But if we're expecting price to go up to this blue line, and we're seeing evidence that |
| 249 | 00:43:50,940 --> 00:43:59,790 | all these things down here, stops have been taken, is swept we have all these bodies here which is relatively equal lows. Forget the wicks go back into the |
| 250 | 00:43:59,790 --> 00:44:05,340 | bodies. They're telling you the narrative that's the storyline. That means they're going to want to sweep through it. There you go. It's happening right |
| 251 | 00:44:05,340 --> 00:44:17,130 | there. So when this is a full bitmap bearish candle, I would be buying that. You probably wouldn't. Most people on YouTube, Twitter and Instagram discord and |
| 252 | 00:44:17,130 --> 00:44:27,180 | things like that wouldn't buy that. They will be too afraid they had no idea. Price would react that way. But I'm leaning on this being a propulsion block. |
| 253 | 00:44:27,210 --> 00:44:40,620 | This is a order block that's already confirmed that it is we broke through this candle is closer here which is rejection blah. It's showing a willingness to |
| 254 | 00:44:40,620 --> 00:44:50,010 | want to go higher. I don't need this high to be taken out. It's went above this one here, while I'm bullish. This down close candle is a proportion block. So |
| 255 | 00:44:50,010 --> 00:44:59,910 | that range I'm shaded here. I'm putting that in transposing that on to an hourly chart. So I'm watching price action on an hourly basis how it performs. See when |
| 256 | 00:44:59,910 --> 00:45:12,150 | I'm Doing my live streams where if I'm doing a execution, and I'm recording my trades, I don't have four laptops, folks. I've had laptops, numerous laptops |
| 257 | 00:45:12,180 --> 00:45:22,170 | over the years, and I kill them, I burn them out. And once they're done, or close to being done, I take all the information off them. And they're dead, |
| 258 | 00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:31,260 | they're thrown away. There's nothing I can do with them. But I have many monitors in front of me on my system. And I've showed you that on my YouTube, I |
| 259 | 00:45:31,260 --> 00:45:39,240 | showed you, Mike displays, I showed you what it looks like. And I'm watching different layouts. And one of the layouts I use as very similar to what you're |
| 260 | 00:45:39,240 --> 00:45:48,840 | seeing here where we have multiple timeframes, and I'm watching how price delivers on all of them. I'm not just staring at a one minute chart, can I trade |
| 261 | 00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:56,400 | with a one minute chart entirely all by itself? Yes. But I'm not teaching you to do that, because you're gonna miss a lot of the information that I'm showing you |
| 262 | 00:45:56,400 --> 00:46:04,650 | here, you would not have the context of using everything I'm talking about here without having the daily chart without having the weekly chart, the draw on |
| 263 | 00:46:04,650 --> 00:46:13,080 | liquidity, this blue line here. So when I'm looking at price, whether I have it on the chart, or if it's on my notepad, because I'm using a notepad, unless I |
| 264 | 00:46:13,080 --> 00:46:22,290 | draw it out on the chart for you, because you're going to watch the video later on. There's no, there's no annotations on my chart. Because I want my focus on |
| 265 | 00:46:22,650 --> 00:46:31,530 | where we are in that range. So on my notepad, I have the high, the low in the mean threshold price point of that candlestick right there on the daily chart. |
| 266 | 00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:43,680 | And I have on my notepad, daily propulsion block high, mean threshold low. So I'm watching price when it's meandering around in here, I'm watching time of |
| 267 | 00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:54,960 | day, and how it responds at those specific levels. Because I'm predicting I'm anticipating, I am not reacting to anything. The only time that I react is if |
| 268 | 00:46:54,960 --> 00:47:02,850 | I'm wrong. And I see the evidence in price action that I'm offside or in likely to become offside then I'm going to react to that new information and say, Okay, |
| 269 | 00:47:02,850 --> 00:47:11,790 | I gotta bail on the trade. That's the only permission that you're ever gonna get from me to react to price, because everything else, we are absolutely predicting |
| 270 | 00:47:11,790 --> 00:47:20,160 | price, you are doing that you're predicting the future. That's what this is, is future. That's why they call it futures trading your lifts in the name? And why |
| 271 | 00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:25,980 | are you arguing saying you're not trying to predict the price? Or you shouldn't be trying to predict the price? You are? If you are bullish, that means you are |
| 272 | 00:47:25,980 --> 00:47:35,520 | predicting higher prices. If you're bearish, you're expecting and predicting lower prices, how are you reacting to anything? If you're reacting, you means |
| 273 | 00:47:35,520 --> 00:47:44,340 | you're chasing price, I'm not chasing price, I'm waiting for very specific things where price will walk into my crosshairs. And when it does, it's going |
| 274 | 00:47:44,370 --> 00:47:55,950 | down. I'm going to pull the trigger, and I'm getting my entry. I have 81 ways to get in there. Trust me, I'm getting in here. If trading was like a cat burger, |
| 275 | 00:47:55,950 --> 00:48:03,750 | I'd be the best one. And because I can get in a bit. So we have the mean threshold here. rallies back above relative equal highs have been cleared here. |
| 276 | 00:48:03,750 --> 00:48:14,370 | And now the bodies are showing that there is an interest in seeing no further decline. Or how do I know that? Because the bodies are not closing inside that |
| 277 | 00:48:14,370 --> 00:48:23,400 | blue shaded area, it's already done the work of dealing with trading down into mean threshold more more time shifting higher. So market structures now again, |
| 278 | 00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:32,700 | one more time bullish. So where's their inefficiency above this price point right here when this candle closes? This one right here. When it closes? Where |
| 279 | 00:48:32,700 --> 00:48:43,800 | is the draw on liquidity from that price point there? Well, you have this short term high. So do you need? Do you need a depth of market ladder to tell you or a |
| 280 | 00:48:44,040 --> 00:48:51,990 | book map? Or some kind of order flow application to tell you there's going to be buy order stacking above this this high here? Do you need that? Because I don't |
| 281 | 00:48:52,560 --> 00:49:02,160 | you don't need that? That's reading tape. Do you need to know that all throughout this decline here, while price starts going up, you're going to see |
| 282 | 00:49:02,940 --> 00:49:11,130 | all the orders above the marketplace being eaten into because that's expected. We expect that we anticipate that we're not reacting to that we're not surprised |
| 283 | 00:49:11,130 --> 00:49:18,300 | and saying, Wow, look at how the depth of market ladder is showing how all the orders just keep getting eaten and consumed. That when you that's expected |
| 284 | 00:49:18,300 --> 00:49:26,460 | that's reasonable. We expect that we're not surprised by that. We're not surprised how we don't care what the number is either. I don't care what the |
| 285 | 00:49:26,460 --> 00:49:35,430 | footprint soon how many people bought this level and versus that I don't care, because my focus is on, it's going to roll right back up this inefficiency, |
| 286 | 00:49:35,460 --> 00:49:42,870 | which is a city so it's an unbalanced bias on an efficiency. It's a classification of a fair value gap. But then once it goes to this level here, |
| 287 | 00:49:42,870 --> 00:49:49,140 | it's not done in my opinion, because my focus is up here. So I'm reading the tape. I'm watching how it delivers |
| 288 | 00:49:50,430 --> 00:49:59,940 | all through here. Once it gets to this price point here. I'm willing to participate. I'm going to predict this is where I would be in my live stream |
| 289 | 00:50:00,000 --> 00:50:10,200 | This is where I wouldn't be in my recording of my execution, I'd be typing out big range candles incoming, when it gets right here, right to that price point |
| 290 | 00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:21,660 | low. Right there, I will be typing out, we're going to anticipate, we're going to expect we're predicting, we're not going to be surprised by large up close |
| 291 | 00:50:21,660 --> 00:50:30,690 | candles. Why? Because he's gonna make a quick run for the liquidity resting above this high. That's what the algorithm does, folks. That's what it does, |
| 292 | 00:50:31,170 --> 00:50:38,160 | you're not going to know that from the depth of market, you're not going to know that from the footprint, because that's, it doesn't have the ability to show you |
| 293 | 00:50:38,160 --> 00:50:49,860 | that experience reading price action does. So tape reading is where that skill set is derived from watching price action, how it behaves, I don't count the |
| 294 | 00:50:49,860 --> 00:50:58,440 | number of buys and sells at a specific price level. To me, it's irrelevant information. I don't care. That doesn't mean doesn't mean anything to me. It's |
| 295 | 00:50:58,440 --> 00:51:08,190 | like saying, How many cars pass me on the left lane going to my destination this morning? I don't know. I'm focused on a destination which is up here. I don't |
| 296 | 00:51:08,190 --> 00:51:17,370 | care how many cars pass me. As long as I have air, my tires, gas in my tank and my engine run fine. I'm getting there. That's my focus. I'm looking through the |
| 297 | 00:51:17,370 --> 00:51:28,620 | windshield, I'm not looking in a rearview mirror, which is what footprint does. Depth of market. It's so short term and perspective, you don't need that. It's |
| 298 | 00:51:28,740 --> 00:51:37,530 | it's built in the idea that if you know that you're trying to be long on a marketplace, it goes without saying that the orders above the marketplace should |
| 299 | 00:51:37,530 --> 00:51:47,730 | be eaten in who wrote it into. So where's the advantage in that? It goes without saying it's part of it. If the market is gonna go higher, well, there you go. I |
| 300 | 00:51:47,730 --> 00:51:55,500 | don't care how many people are actually buying it. Because the volume, how many buying and selling has absolutely no bearing on my belief system and why price |
| 301 | 00:51:55,500 --> 00:52:06,360 | goes where it goes. Because it's algorithmically delivered. That's the problem that all of you have with me. You're all wrong. And you're wrestling your arm |
| 302 | 00:52:06,360 --> 00:52:12,660 | wrestling? These ain't no, no, no, it is what it really is. But you now you're coming close to the results I'm showing you, you can't even come close to the |
| 303 | 00:52:12,690 --> 00:52:25,590 | same precision that I'm showing you. You can't even call the market to the degree I'm doing on a weekly basis. Now. At some point, at some point, you have |
| 304 | 00:52:25,590 --> 00:52:35,340 | to sit down, lay down your pitchforks and torches and say, You know what, let me just listen to this guy and see where it takes me. That's all I'm asking you to |
| 305 | 00:52:35,340 --> 00:52:46,290 | do. You don't have to do it. But everything I'm telling you happens. I'm telling you what goes on marketplace in White does. I'm literally teaching it to you. |
| 306 | 00:52:47,040 --> 00:52:57,600 | I'm not demonstrating toys, I'm teaching you how to do it. What you have to do to develop this skill set, it takes work, it's not watching a video, it's |
| 307 | 00:52:57,840 --> 00:53:05,280 | understanding what you're supposed to do. And then go out and do it yourself. And it's going to feel like you don't know what you're doing in beginning. But |
| 308 | 00:53:05,280 --> 00:53:12,600 | showing up every day in front of the charts. Reading the tape at means studying how it behaves without putting a demo trade on without putting a live trade on |
| 309 | 00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:22,320 | without trying to pass a combine on a funded account. It means simply studying what price does based on the time of day and day of the week, knowing in advance |
| 310 | 00:53:22,320 --> 00:53:32,940 | what's I tell you where the markets gonna go? It's gonna go up or it's gonna go down to a very specific level, not range, not zone. And you use that 30 years |
| 311 | 00:53:32,940 --> 00:53:45,000 | experience to trust while you're studying. So we have an ICD bullsh breaker here. These are the instances where you see classic Support Resistance, it is |
| 312 | 00:53:45,000 --> 00:53:51,690 | coming. And this right here, this is one of those videos where someone's going to come out in the future and say, See all ICTs doing a showing you classic |
| 313 | 00:53:51,690 --> 00:54:02,580 | support resistance and this is nothing new on its own. No, no, trust me, we're gonna go deeper. I want you to think about why this level would be sensitive |
| 314 | 00:54:02,580 --> 00:54:14,760 | anyway. Because there's other highs to the left of this. And I talk about that on my market we did yesterday. So on July 15 2023. There's a market commentary |
| 315 | 00:54:14,790 --> 00:54:23,400 | or market review video. And I talk about that very instance. So I'm not going to take it any further than that, because I've already talked about it yesterday. |
| 316 | 00:54:24,540 --> 00:54:36,090 | But I want you to think about how the market from this high traded down and then trade it up and then through it. What does that make this range from this low to |
| 317 | 00:54:36,090 --> 00:54:45,690 | that high? Once we broke out above this high here, which is what we were anticipating, we're not breakout traders. We're not reacting to price, we want |
| 318 | 00:54:45,690 --> 00:55:00,630 | to see that. But what makes this a very specific range. This becomes a balanced price range. What makes it balanced. We had a high we traded down so Sell side |
| 319 | 00:55:00,630 --> 00:55:12,450 | delivery has been offered, not sell side liquidity sell side delivery is any price run from my high till low. We have had sell side delivery from here. And |
| 320 | 00:55:12,450 --> 00:55:22,680 | here that that range. Now when we run right back over that entire range, again, from that low up to that high, which is what we're doing here over time. Soon as |
| 321 | 00:55:22,680 --> 00:55:34,920 | we break through here, this high to that low is now a balanced price range, there is absolutely no reason to anticipate expect or want to see price come |
| 322 | 00:55:34,920 --> 00:55:48,510 | back down below that low. Why? Because the focus is up here, folks. We're expecting we're predicting, we're anticipating the market the footprint, it's as |
| 323 | 00:55:48,510 --> 00:55:57,990 | right on up to that level, we want to see that we're expecting that. So where is the biomarkers that are going to be? where's the where's the rest stops along |
| 324 | 00:55:57,990 --> 00:56:07,320 | the way? Well, when the market runs above this area here, it's more likely to do what treat this level here as a breaker or a springboard to go higher. Why? |
| 325 | 00:56:08,580 --> 00:56:17,670 | Because this high has a lower low that's higher than this lower here. I'm not showing it to you because I want you to look at the commentary from yesterday. I |
| 326 | 00:56:17,670 --> 00:56:27,390 | talked about this on the hourly chart. So the mark comes back down. Does it wick through that high? Absolutely. And that's permissible. That means it's allowed, |
| 327 | 00:56:27,390 --> 00:56:36,840 | we expect that we anticipate that we're not reacting, we're not scared by either. Look where the bodies close, right here, and it opens right there. So |
| 328 | 00:56:36,870 --> 00:56:49,350 | there are wicks that are going down into this box and amounts Osan efficiently wasn't busy. It's a fair value guy. But what specifically stands out here. What |
| 329 | 00:56:49,350 --> 00:57:02,220 | is that? What's the segment between this high on that candlestick? Right there to this candlesticks high? What is this area? What is that? It's inefficient. |
| 330 | 00:57:02,400 --> 00:57:13,260 | But then when we see this candlestick here, trade down into it. It erodes some of this inefficiency. So it starts from here to here. This becomes a breakaway |
| 331 | 00:57:13,260 --> 00:57:25,650 | gap. We don't want to see that. We don't want to see that filled in. Are you telling me that ICT is teaching how to see anticipate and work with breakaway |
| 332 | 00:57:25,650 --> 00:57:38,910 | gaps? Yes. Now, did I say ITT invented breakaway gaps? No. When I first started learning how to look at price action and John Murphy's book, which is the retail |
| 333 | 00:57:38,940 --> 00:57:47,760 | Bible, for traders, everything in that book, if you know how to really trade based on what I'm teaching, you turn it upside down. If you see that pattern |
| 334 | 00:57:47,790 --> 00:57:57,960 | that's taught in that book, and my concepts are calling for the opposite that pattern in that book is going to fail. Don't take my word for it by the book and |
| 335 | 00:57:57,960 --> 00:58:06,330 | challenge it. So by the way, I don't have any affiliation with John Murphy. So when you buy his book, I get no kickback. So there it is. But it should be in |
| 336 | 00:58:06,330 --> 00:58:17,250 | every every traders library because it really is the retail traders Bible, the all that stuff in there is literally exploitable if you understand what price is |
| 337 | 00:58:17,250 --> 00:58:29,940 | really trying to do. So we have this area here is a breakaway gap. The reason why it becomes a breakaway gap and why we would never expect the depth of market |
| 338 | 00:58:29,940 --> 00:58:38,310 | the DME even if there was a bigger orders below the marketplace here. Okay, if there was a stacking of orders below that they were really large, okay, big, big |
| 339 | 00:58:38,310 --> 00:58:48,510 | interest to draw into that area down here. They're not going to go down there. Those things are not going to fill. What Yeah, yep, no footprints are gonna be |
| 340 | 00:58:48,510 --> 00:58:57,270 | found down below that that low right there. Because it's going to go higher, because this area's gonna stay open. Why should it stay open? Because it's |
| 341 | 00:58:57,330 --> 00:59:09,270 | running out of this range. Right here. It's already done the work of digging into this daily propulsion block. This is why you cannot look at one candlestick |
| 342 | 00:59:09,270 --> 00:59:16,830 | chart, one timeframe and follow the narrative. You can't you can't be done, folks. Either you're taking the information from the higher time frames and |
| 343 | 00:59:16,830 --> 00:59:27,270 | transposing them. That means placing whatever ideas that you think is supportive or counterproductive for your trade. From a higher Time Frame, whatever makes |
| 344 | 00:59:27,270 --> 00:59:33,570 | that trade idea you're under the a guess expectation is going to pan out |
| 345 | 00:59:34,830 --> 00:59:47,490 | whatever those ideas are from a higher timeframe weekly and daily chart. They have to be on your tradable chart either in some kind of annotation, some kind |
| 346 | 00:59:47,490 --> 00:59:56,940 | of you know line or some kind of, you know, mechanism that draws your attention to it. Because if you don't have this information, if I didn't have the |
| 347 | 00:59:56,940 --> 01:00:04,890 | propulsion block shaded over here, you would not know what it is I'm talking about down here would make the context behind why it would be trading the way it |
| 348 | 01:00:04,890 --> 01:00:13,170 | is, you would know that that's the only reason why I put this lipstick on the charts because you're learning from me. So I don't need this. But because I |
| 349 | 01:00:13,170 --> 01:00:20,880 | don't need it doesn't mean, I shouldn't put it on the chart, because if you're learning, it will help you it's a crutch. It helps you stay organized from one |
| 350 | 01:00:20,880 --> 01:00:35,280 | timeframe to the next. But my focus is up here. I want this to go higher. So I'm going to watch price reading the tape and look for all the evidences all the |
| 351 | 01:00:35,280 --> 01:00:45,840 | signatures and price action that support that very thing coming to pass. I want to see periods where it's going to run aggressively higher. If I get that, then |
| 352 | 01:00:45,840 --> 01:00:56,670 | I'm going to be really trustworthy that I'm on side, that means I'm on the right side of the marketplace and stay with the idea. Do we get that confirmation with |
| 353 | 01:00:56,670 --> 01:01:09,270 | the body staying? at or above this high? Here? Yes? Does this stay open? It's not trading back down into it. So where's the advantage? They're using depth of |
| 354 | 01:01:09,270 --> 01:01:18,630 | market or ladders or footprint? You would never expect this. If you're my student, you're never expecting this area to be printed into anymore. But I |
| 355 | 01:01:18,630 --> 01:01:26,850 | promise you, and I've seen it, traders are looking at those things. And they're expecting to go down because they think this is an inefficiency now because ICT |
| 356 | 01:01:26,850 --> 01:01:36,810 | has talked about it. No, no, this is why you should not be listening to dollar menu mentorships. Okay. You're going through the ICT drive thru just like they |
| 357 | 01:01:36,810 --> 01:01:44,910 | are. Okay, you're having the same experience they are they're putting a price tag on something that they don't even know how to do yet. Learn how to do it |
| 358 | 01:01:44,910 --> 01:01:54,480 | independently, you don't need to pay for this stuff. So the market should be rallying higher, where should it go? Well, where's the next draw on liquidity |
| 359 | 01:01:54,570 --> 01:02:07,620 | near term? Yes, this is it up here. But what above this high exists in terms of liquidity by sign. So your book map, or your depth of market will start |
| 360 | 01:02:07,620 --> 01:02:16,200 | reflecting as we get closer to it, there's going to be a lot of orders resting at or just above that high. You need these tools to tell you that because I |
| 361 | 01:02:16,200 --> 01:02:25,620 | don't and my students don't need that either. This is reading the tape. This is what reading the tape is it has absolutely nothing to do with the things I |
| 362 | 01:02:25,620 --> 01:02:33,210 | opened his presentation up with. So when you read or see or listen, these people out there, they'll say you're talking about institutional order flow, we're |
| 363 | 01:02:33,210 --> 01:02:41,940 | talking about reading the tape showing your order book, none of that, show me you using the information from those tools, and you calling the market precisely |
| 364 | 01:02:42,780 --> 01:02:50,520 | because that is lacking. I don't see that anywhere. I absolutely do not see that. I would love to see it. I would be entertained by it. And I would love |
| 365 | 01:02:50,520 --> 01:03:01,080 | watching the person whoever it may be that would be willing to do that. I am a person that loves to study a trader I don't want to relearn anything. There's |
| 366 | 01:03:01,080 --> 01:03:09,180 | nothing out there out there that would ever interest me that would ever be better than what my what I have here is the market. But I love watching how |
| 367 | 01:03:09,180 --> 01:03:16,710 | traders navigate the marketplace themselves. They manage themselves or mismanage themselves. It's unfortunate sometimes, but it's very entertaining also, when |
| 368 | 01:03:16,710 --> 01:03:25,470 | they're discovering themselves and truth be told, sometimes I try to counsel them and tell them where they should focus their attention on how to correct and |
| 369 | 01:03:25,470 --> 01:03:36,120 | then many times it's not received in good spirits some ridiculed or not given any regard for it, but you know, everybody has their own prerogatives and their |
| 370 | 01:03:36,120 --> 01:03:45,030 | own choices. They don't have you don't have to you don't have to listen to me. But I'm the guy calm all this stuff before it happens to the market right here |
| 371 | 01:03:45,030 --> 01:03:57,900 | has biocide the market draws up into it. What happens before it gets to this run right here. Right here this run right there what happens you see this wick right |
| 372 | 01:03:57,900 --> 01:04:08,460 | here? You see that wick? Half of that is what constant encouragement interesting how it goes right down to it right there. Interesting how we have a gap right |
| 373 | 01:04:08,460 --> 01:04:20,610 | there with a wick so if we have a gap like this with a wick always trust and allow for it's likely to go into this consequent encouragement not just fill in |
| 374 | 01:04:20,610 --> 01:04:30,540 | that gap right there. So it can trade down even though it goes over there we're taught that gap the candlesticks Hi gray here. If it went through that live I |
| 375 | 01:04:30,540 --> 01:04:41,490 | would not be unsettled by that. I would not be scared by that. I would look for this candlesticks wick right here. The midpoint which is consequent |
| 376 | 01:04:41,490 --> 01:04:48,630 | encouragement, we treat that as a gap that Mark goes right back to it there. Then what does it do right back up here. All right. So when the next candle |
| 377 | 01:04:48,630 --> 01:04:58,530 | opens up, I will be looking at that and saying okay, now I want to see it start expanding towards this high here. And I want to see it aggressively run through |
| 378 | 01:04:58,560 --> 01:05:11,490 | I want to see speed We get there, we come back down in, what is it doing? It's working inside this wick, which is what a gap, we do gradients on wicks 75% of |
| 379 | 01:05:11,490 --> 01:05:22,260 | the wick 50% of the wick, we never want to see in this case here, lower than 50% or consequent encouragement. So any respect of this wick should be limited to |
| 380 | 01:05:22,260 --> 01:05:30,180 | the high 75% of the wick, and then a consequent question, which is half. So in my mind when I'm watching price action, or here, I don't want to see it, go |
| 381 | 01:05:30,180 --> 01:05:39,810 | below half of that wick, find that in Steve Nelson's book, go over here, look what it's doing. It's going down, but it won't breach on a closing basis |
| 382 | 01:05:39,900 --> 01:05:48,660 | midpoint of that wick, which is constant encouragement, that's tape reading, you can't see that in Dom, you can't see that in footprint, it, you're not even |
| 383 | 01:05:48,660 --> 01:05:56,280 | going to look for it, there's no reason for you to look for it. Because it's not in that theory. Games not talking about it, wake up doesn't know anything about |
| 384 | 01:05:56,280 --> 01:06:06,480 | it either. So the market does what it rallies above this high here, what's above that high buy side by stops, someone is chasing that lower when it's green, this |
| 385 | 01:06:06,480 --> 01:06:15,900 | is an hourly chart. So inside that we miss in that hourly candlestick, someone's going short, where they're gonna place to stop worrying about the high to the |
| 386 | 01:06:15,900 --> 01:06:26,310 | market. That's why it gravitates up to here. And we drop down, respecting consequent encouragement there. And we rally, what do we do now? We start |
| 387 | 01:06:26,310 --> 01:06:42,180 | expanding aggressively towards that weekly mitigation block this level right here. And we trade up into that level there. And then we consolidate markets do |
| 388 | 01:06:42,180 --> 01:06:57,210 | not top like this. So we have what is this? What is this area here become? Once we trade through it here, right there. What does this area or fractal and price |
| 389 | 01:06:57,210 --> 01:07:07,950 | actually become? The same thing I told you, this becomes a balanced price range from this candlesticks high here, up to this high, then back down. Once we clear |
| 390 | 01:07:07,950 --> 01:07:17,850 | this high here, this whole shaded area becomes a balanced price range. I am not concerned about price wanting to at anytime up here going back down inside this |
| 391 | 01:07:17,850 --> 01:07:28,050 | range. So for stop loss management, your stop loss can be anywhere in this range and feel pretty confident it's not going to get there. So how would I do it and |
| 392 | 01:07:28,050 --> 01:07:39,270 | sleep good at night, setting 100% of that range. If my stop is below that I'm comfortable with that. Some of you get crazy about how I'm using my stops, |
| 393 | 01:07:39,420 --> 01:07:47,010 | sometimes they get really close to what you might be scared to do at the time. When you're watching my executions. And you're seeing it, you're thinking, Man, |
| 394 | 01:07:47,010 --> 01:07:56,880 | this is crazy, I wouldn't feel comfortable, because you just don't know I'm teaching you right now. These are long videos, these are very dense, very |
| 395 | 01:07:57,570 --> 01:08:07,350 | demanding of your attention to learn. And that's expected. I didn't tell you it's going to be easy. And Wachovia, you know how to do it, I warned you ahead |
| 396 | 01:08:07,350 --> 01:08:13,770 | of time, it's gonna take a lot of work. But it's something that it's worth doing. Because once you have this skill set, nobody can take it from you. They |
| 397 | 01:08:13,770 --> 01:08:24,600 | can make jokes about all they want, but they're never going to be able to do what you can do once you master this. So let's go into now we have the hourly |
| 398 | 01:08:24,600 --> 01:08:35,340 | chart over here. And we have the balanced price range there. And now this chart here is a 15 minute timeframe. So we have the market trading sideways ahead of |
| 399 | 01:08:35,340 --> 01:08:48,960 | Friday. So we have this consolidation here. And then we have a market report. It's due out on Friday. We're anticipating what the markets not going to top |
| 400 | 01:08:48,960 --> 01:09:01,050 | like this. So we anticipate the market is going to do what spall higher going higher, run higher. So at 830 When news comes out on Friday, here's the five |
| 401 | 01:09:01,050 --> 01:09:01,710 | minute chart here. |
| 402 | 01:09:03,089 --> 01:09:14,519 | We have the market rally aggressively here, which is a bias out of balance cells on efficiency, which is the long name for busy basi. This is a fair value gap by |
| 403 | 01:09:14,519 --> 01:09:25,169 | classification. Specifically biocide imbalance, so side inefficiency, it means it's by side imbalance. It's more upside, and it didn't go back and forth to |
| 404 | 01:09:25,169 --> 01:09:34,619 | offer sell side delivery. We get partial sell side delivery with this drop right here. In this segment in price action where I told you it's a breakaway gap. |
| 405 | 01:09:34,649 --> 01:09:44,729 | That's what I'm zoomed into here showing you a five minute basis. But I want you to think about what is occurring here at this time of day at 1030. After the |
| 406 | 01:09:44,729 --> 01:09:59,729 | news driver. We have this swing low here and it breaks below that this segment of price action rating here is a fair value gap. It's a SEBI sellside imbalance |
| 407 | 01:09:59,729 --> 01:10:10,109 | by 10 inefficiency, which is the opposite of this over here. So it's offering the market on a sell side delivery, but there is an inefficiency on by side. So |
| 408 | 01:10:10,109 --> 01:10:22,199 | we would anticipate markets like this to reprice up into this candlestick or higher. And then reprice lower. Why? What time of day? Is it? New York lunch |
| 409 | 01:10:22,199 --> 01:10:31,619 | macro. So above this high, we have buyside liquidity. And it's entering a time of day where the lunch macro, which is going to do what it's going to run for |
| 410 | 01:10:31,619 --> 01:10:44,459 | liquidity. Where is the liquidity at? For this time of day looking at in this area here? It's below the lows of the morning. What is that? Right here? This is |
| 411 | 01:10:44,459 --> 01:10:55,349 | your, your swing low right after the news driver hits the marketplace. For swing low here, everybody that went long, or was long before this market reports out, |
| 412 | 01:10:55,769 --> 01:11:04,589 | they have their sell stock resting rate below that that's exactly what the launch macro will do. It'll run from this fair value gap here. Drop down |
| 413 | 01:11:04,619 --> 01:11:16,679 | aggressively. Leaving what most of this portion of this open, which is what I've already talked about in a couple minutes ago, this is a breakaway gap. This line |
| 414 | 01:11:16,679 --> 01:11:27,179 | right here is this line right there. It's the breaker. So this high, that line is this line right here on the five minute chart, this little segment of price |
| 415 | 01:11:27,179 --> 01:11:36,629 | action right there. And it's a breakaway gap. That's this little portion right here, below that low. Okay, so that way you can find your way through the |
| 416 | 01:11:36,629 --> 01:11:45,749 | charts. And what I'm showing you if you're not doing this with your own analysis and toggling through scrolling through each individual timeframe, while you're |
| 417 | 01:11:45,749 --> 01:11:54,119 | watching price action, having every expectation the market is going to do going what going higher. So we're seeing even on a five minute chart, look at the |
| 418 | 01:11:54,119 --> 01:12:05,639 | bodies. Are these candles here? Are they closing below that breaker line, which is this candlesticks high right there, even on the five minute chart, it's |
| 419 | 01:12:05,639 --> 01:12:16,079 | showing you want to dis is being respected, there's no necessity for the trade back down into this area. So that will be a what a breakaway gap. That indicates |
| 420 | 01:12:16,079 --> 01:12:24,359 | that we're going to see continuous upside delivery. And it's going to draw towards the buy side. That's the next significant pool of liquidity. So |
| 421 | 01:12:24,359 --> 01:12:37,229 | throughout the afternoon, we see the market treat higher, come back down in trade higher. Come back down in some random fair value gap here and then |
| 422 | 01:12:37,469 --> 01:12:47,009 | gravitate start moving towards the higher high again, which is this here. Okay, we run out of day during the day session. So all of its consolidation when we |
| 423 | 01:12:47,009 --> 01:12:57,449 | resume at 6pm, because the market takes an hour break between 5pm, Eastern Time to 6pm. When that occurs, when markets start trading, again, the same premise we |
| 424 | 01:12:57,449 --> 01:13:05,309 | would have in our expectation, we're not reacting we're anticipating and predicting price that will eventually gravitate towards this high here. So if |
| 425 | 01:13:05,309 --> 01:13:13,679 | your overnight session traders say you want to trade in Asia, say you want to trade in London, you're using these ideas in conjunction with the day in time |
| 426 | 01:13:13,679 --> 01:13:21,569 | that you're trading. So where's liquidity, the liquidity is not changing, because you're trading in Asia, the liquidity is not hiding itself, and becoming |
| 427 | 01:13:21,569 --> 01:13:29,879 | something different and morphing into something else. Because you're in the London session. Liquidity is there is going to gravitate towards that level. And |
| 428 | 01:13:29,909 --> 01:13:40,169 | if this context is here, we focus on moving higher. So let's go a little bit further in this. Here's that five minute chart. You can see how we gravitated |
| 429 | 01:13:40,169 --> 01:13:53,429 | here, higher and now the end of the day, and now starting a new day. So we start working towards what all throughout Asia. And then we get to midnight. |
| 430 | 01:13:53,729 --> 01:14:07,709 | Interesting and going into the new day at midnight, new time. We ran the buy side here, right there, boom. Then we do what we come back down. What's below |
| 431 | 01:14:07,709 --> 01:14:17,489 | here, sell side stops. But I want to take you before we go any further here, I want to take you back into this area here focus on this little segment of price |
| 432 | 01:14:17,489 --> 01:14:28,529 | action right there. What time frame was this chart? You're looking up here to five minute chart? Look at all the things here on this five minute chart. Do you |
| 433 | 01:14:28,529 --> 01:14:37,229 | see anything that stands out? We'll come back to it. But I want you to see in compare and contrast. The price action on the five minute we're gonna drop down |
| 434 | 01:14:37,229 --> 01:14:46,889 | to a 432 and one, but we're going to focus on this little area Why am I focusing on this area here to change it in from this high down to that low and then how |
| 435 | 01:14:46,889 --> 01:14:54,449 | we start to deliver going back up? Because the the trust is that there's no necessity to go back down into this area which is a breakaway gap. Because this |
| 436 | 01:14:54,449 --> 01:15:05,399 | line here is your bullish breaker. Everything is indicating that order flow is supporting that idea. I don't need a ladder, I don't need a depth of market, I |
| 437 | 01:15:05,399 --> 01:15:15,689 | don't need a footprint, I don't need any of that stuff. You don't either. The time based chart will tell you everything you need. It's simple. It really is |
| 438 | 01:15:15,689 --> 01:15:24,269 | simple, but you're trying to bring every concept that I've ever introduced into every discussion. I'm not doing that. I'm not bringing everything into this |
| 439 | 01:15:24,299 --> 01:15:33,269 | fractal. Here, only things that stand out in this fractal, I can only deal with whatever PD arrays exist in this shaded area. So watch this shaded area is the |
| 440 | 01:15:33,269 --> 01:15:42,239 | five minute chart, now we're gonna transition into a four minute. Okay, notice any changes, this is the part of the video, you're going to want to go back and |
| 441 | 01:15:42,329 --> 01:15:51,779 | study independently, or look at it from your own chart. Preferably, I don't know what time you're gonna watch this video maybe years later. But I'm doing this |
| 442 | 01:15:51,779 --> 01:15:59,729 | for the purpose of that, because you may not be able to recall this information on your chart at the time. So yeah, we can use my charts here, screenshot them |
| 443 | 01:15:59,729 --> 01:16:10,409 | and do whatever annotation you want to do. Now we'll look at the three minute chart. And then it's all this here. What is price dealing, I don't need a depth |
| 444 | 01:16:10,409 --> 01:16:24,329 | of market to show you what I'm about to show you is a two minute chart, same range, but it looks different, doesn't it? And finally down to the one minute |
| 445 | 01:16:24,329 --> 01:16:43,709 | chart. Now, this green line here, again, is the hourly bullish breaker that high we dig into it here 1123 times, and then we have a swing high. Broken to the |
| 446 | 01:16:43,709 --> 01:16:56,879 | upside. The last down closed candle prior to that shift in market structure, that down close candle is a bullish order block. That opening price is a change |
| 447 | 01:16:56,909 --> 01:17:08,519 | in the state of delivery. Now, huge leap forward for people that want to learn over blocks, okay. For the record, order blocks have zero. Notice I'm not |
| 448 | 01:17:08,519 --> 01:17:15,839 | talking about depth of market here. Notice I'm not even pointing at a ladder. I'm not talking about footprint, I didn't even talk about volume, I don't care |
| 449 | 01:17:15,839 --> 01:17:26,699 | how many orders were purchased or sold short. In this candle. It's irrelevant. That has nothing to do with my order block my order block, which is codified and |
| 450 | 01:17:26,699 --> 01:17:36,989 | created and authored by me nobody else is author of it. I didn't borrow from somebody else in any supply and demand this candle right here, the open of that |
| 451 | 01:17:36,989 --> 01:17:50,009 | candle. The change in the state of delivery is when that candlesticks opening price is crossed right there for the first time. When that happens, then and |
| 452 | 01:17:50,069 --> 01:18:03,569 | only then never before never another time in the future that validates this down close candle as a bullish order block. Now, why? What makes that an order block, |
| 453 | 01:18:04,049 --> 01:18:16,949 | the fact that we have this bullish hourly breaker, the fact that we traded down into it, and then we see a shift in market structure. Then we go back to the |
| 454 | 01:18:16,949 --> 01:18:31,439 | down closed candle, the last one prior to a run higher that has a shift in market structure there. That is not a change of character. rebranding, stop it. |
| 455 | 01:18:31,769 --> 01:18:40,859 | This is not an fu candle. This is not an engulfing candle. I don't care if this candle started here. It opened here and went down. Or if it opened here and went |
| 456 | 01:18:40,859 --> 01:18:49,139 | down, I would draw it right on opening price. It has nothing to do with engulfing. It has nothing to do with anything else except for what I'm teaching |
| 457 | 01:18:49,139 --> 01:18:56,549 | you right here, folks, anybody out there trying to teach order blocks unless they're parroting exactly what I said in another video lecture. They don't know |
| 458 | 01:18:56,549 --> 01:19:02,159 | what they're talking about. Period. And the story that's just the facts. |
| 459 | 01:19:04,079 --> 01:19:12,449 | This becomes a butcher block. As soon as that candle crosses it. What the opening price, that's the change in the state of delivery as soon as that |
| 460 | 01:19:12,449 --> 01:19:25,589 | occurs, this low should not be violated. So you can now start looking for bullish PD arrays that are in discount. Well, everything's in a discount now |
| 461 | 01:19:25,589 --> 01:19:37,949 | because we're so far down. But we have a down close candle right here. So we can use that opening price extended for anything in there buying this anywhere in |
| 462 | 01:19:37,949 --> 01:19:48,569 | this area here buying buying that you can buy that but a stop loss right below there. Or that's a little bit too wide for me. Then don't take the tray. Wait |
| 463 | 01:19:48,569 --> 01:19:58,859 | for another, run higher and wait for an inefficiency. Wait for a fair value Go wait for a break or wait for a institutional refinery drill. Wait for whatever |
| 464 | 01:19:58,859 --> 01:20:13,049 | your model is. suggesting you should use but look closer. We are now looking at that price range from this high up here, all the way down to that low. We trust |
| 465 | 01:20:13,049 --> 01:20:22,139 | that that low will not be violated. Why? Because this candlestick was crossed right there. Now what happens? Let's play devil's advocate. What happens if it |
| 466 | 01:20:22,139 --> 01:20:29,609 | breaks that low? Okay, then you have this continuously study price action, and wait for that same instances where we see a shift in market structure to the |
| 467 | 01:20:29,609 --> 01:20:37,109 | upside. And then last down closed candle will mark the opening price. And if there's a candle that goes above it that validates the down close candle is a |
| 468 | 01:20:37,109 --> 01:20:45,689 | bullish order block. This is only one form of my bullish order block. There are so many of them. And yes, for the folks out there that have a problem with me |
| 469 | 01:20:45,689 --> 01:20:53,249 | having all kinds of weapons in my repertoire. I'm sorry that I'm not a one trick pony. I'm sorry that there's a whole lot of things out there. But you don't have |
| 470 | 01:20:53,249 --> 01:21:00,299 | to know everything I'm teaching you, you just need one thing. One thing, one concept, one model, and you can be profitable. And you don't have to worry about |
| 471 | 01:21:00,299 --> 01:21:10,049 | anything else I've ever made videos about. I don't know why you guys are competent. You're complicating it, not me you are. So we have the ranges here. |
| 472 | 01:21:10,049 --> 01:21:23,459 | 757, the range is a gradient 50% and then 25%. So I want you to notice how as price works very close to 25% of that range, like in the range is the high to |
| 473 | 01:21:23,459 --> 01:21:30,479 | that low, we are trusting that it wants to go higher now because we have a change in a state of delivery. When that candle starts moving above that opening |
| 474 | 01:21:30,479 --> 01:21:39,299 | price. Now we have it's in place. We have a shift in market structure. All lights are green for going higher. How do we use this information? How do we |
| 475 | 01:21:39,299 --> 01:21:50,639 | read the tape? How do we discount the necessity for reaching for depth of market ladders and footprints? You don't need those tools. Look at price, order flow. |
| 476 | 01:21:50,669 --> 01:22:02,159 | What kind of order flow institutional order flow? Easiest, right to the chase no bones about it. Easiest thing is if we're bullish, we want to see down close |
| 477 | 01:22:02,159 --> 01:22:12,989 | candles support price. If we see a short term low taken out, we expect to see that as a stock run and then price should revert right back into going higher |
| 478 | 01:22:12,989 --> 01:22:22,199 | right away. And everything I just said reverse it for when the markets are bearish. It's that simple. Folks. Watch. We have a down close candle here. Draw |
| 479 | 01:22:22,199 --> 01:22:35,609 | it out in time. Does price support at that level? Yes. Yes. Yes. Does it start moving higher? Yes. Does it take out short term highs? Yes. Yes. down close |
| 480 | 01:22:35,609 --> 01:22:45,659 | candle? Is price supporting it as a bullish order block? Yes. It's not going below it? Does price go higher and take up? Hi, yes, it does. We have down close |
| 481 | 01:22:45,659 --> 01:22:55,649 | candle? Does price go down into it and reject that area and leave it and break a high? Yes. Do you need depth of market ladder to tell you that we expect the |
| 482 | 01:22:55,649 --> 01:23:03,929 | depth of market the ladder to start eating into those orders above the market price that's expected folks, we anticipate that we are predicting that to |
| 483 | 01:23:03,929 --> 01:23:14,069 | happen. We expect that your candlesticks and your Renko Bars and your algo bars and whatever the hell you're going to be using. They're going to start going |
| 484 | 01:23:14,069 --> 01:23:26,219 | higher. That's expected, folks. We expect that we're not surprised by down close candles here. Why am I picking this one? Because it's above this hot here and |
| 485 | 01:23:26,219 --> 01:23:35,969 | it's hot here. So does it support price? Look at it. What happens when it hits it starts going higher? Does it take out a short term high? Yes, it does. So is |
| 486 | 01:23:35,999 --> 01:23:49,559 | order flow bullish or bearish? It's bullish, what is it reaching for a premium relative to what the range which is this high to that low? That is determined by |
| 487 | 01:23:49,559 --> 01:24:03,599 | this level here, which is equilibrium. At that level or below it is what discount at that level or above is what premium. So when we get above this 50% |
| 488 | 01:24:03,599 --> 01:24:19,469 | level, it's far less probability. More risk. If we start taking order blocks and buying them above this level, because we're in the premium range of this high, |
| 489 | 01:24:20,819 --> 01:24:32,249 | too low. Doesn't mean it can't keep rallying. It just means that we have to do all of our buying below equilibrium or less while we're in a discount. That's |
| 490 | 01:24:32,249 --> 01:24:42,119 | the framework for high probability. Short term lows being taken out we expect that to be rejected and start seeing price go higher. We start to see it run |
| 491 | 01:24:42,119 --> 01:24:50,459 | higher here. Does it find support on this down close candle here? Yes. Sends it higher. Does it pick up short term high? Yes. And yes. They would down close |
| 492 | 01:24:50,459 --> 01:24:58,829 | candle here right around equilibrium. No return back to here. That's fine because we're in an area where it's a short term premium, down close candle |
| 493 | 01:24:58,829 --> 01:25:11,009 | here. Look at the body supporting that idea. And then rallies higher highs are taken out, down close candle is supported as bullish Yes, higher. So when I'm |
| 494 | 01:25:11,009 --> 01:25:20,729 | watching price am on one side and I'm expecting prices to go higher, I'm looking at every down close candle as a means or mechanism to support price, or any |
| 495 | 01:25:20,729 --> 01:25:33,359 | swing low is a potential stop run. So I'm not in a hurry, if I'm long that ran my stop loss between some random swing low because that's exactly what the |
| 496 | 01:25:33,359 --> 01:25:42,779 | algorithm is going to do is going to sweep below them like it does here, like it does here and like it does here. And then once it does that around equilibrium, |
| 497 | 01:25:43,019 --> 01:25:55,739 | then it's going to go into another price leg higher, and then we enter a consolidation. What's below here, sales stops. Now we can go higher. Notice also |
| 498 | 01:25:56,159 --> 01:26:05,729 | that we have all of these fair value gaps right here and all this in here. When we have a change in the state of delivery and we enter a buy program, which is |
| 499 | 01:26:05,729 --> 01:26:16,169 | where we are from this point on there, well what's going on here Michael, it's just retracing, that's all it's doing. It's allowing for a deeper discount with |
| 500 | 01:26:16,169 --> 01:26:24,509 | that low staying intact. When this high is taken out here, notice that we have another return back into this order block. When we have this retracement back in |
| 501 | 01:26:24,509 --> 01:26:34,139 | the order block here that's when we start seeing the more pronounced run higher but look what's occurring here. All this imbalance here what is it lacking by |
| 502 | 01:26:34,139 --> 01:26:43,529 | side delivery not liquidity by side deliveries when there is a run higher in price look what it's still in it runs higher look at the bodies respecting what |
| 503 | 01:26:43,949 --> 01:26:53,879 | the inefficiency is high right there. This SEBI that candles low what is the respecting this candles? Low here? And then what is it dropping down into |
| 504 | 01:26:54,359 --> 01:27:05,549 | consequent encouragement? midpoint of this candles low in this candles? Hi, there rallies Where's rally to the fair value get right here. So what how do we |
| 505 | 01:27:05,549 --> 01:27:14,519 | use this information? There inversion fair value gaps. These are like a mountain climber. And the mountain climber is climbing up the surface of the Mountain. |
| 506 | 01:27:14,729 --> 01:27:23,399 | And he's looking for those little pockets of stick his fingers into and stick his toes on the defined footing and grasp that new fingerprint or holding point |
| 507 | 01:27:23,669 --> 01:27:31,229 | to pull his body up? Well, we're in a bullish market now. We're in a buy program, we're climbing a mountain, what's the mountain, this is the mountain |
| 508 | 01:27:31,229 --> 01:27:45,479 | side here. This is the most sheer drop off. So this is the smoothest part in that drop off. So we have to use these areas. To find what footing there's |
| 509 | 01:27:45,479 --> 01:27:53,279 | little pockets, we have to wait for them to form it means consequent encroachment, short term low trades below what's it going to do trade back into |
| 510 | 01:27:53,279 --> 01:28:00,359 | this order block and take out that short term low for sell stops. I'm not freaking out when I see that I want to see it react at that order block and also |
| 511 | 01:28:00,359 --> 01:28:08,759 | that it's taken out liquidity and there's also a volume imbalance right there. That's tape reading. You watch price, whether you're watching it live, or you |
| 512 | 01:28:08,759 --> 01:28:17,789 | have to watch it in Market Replay, which is not going to be the same, folks. Unless unless you can watch price delivery every individual fluctuation which |
| 513 | 01:28:17,819 --> 01:28:20,099 | trading view is limited to that it doesn't do that. |
| 514 | 01:28:21,630 --> 01:28:37,350 | It's better for you, if you can't watch live price action to re record your screens. I use Camtasia, which is a application from techsmith.com TCHSMITH dot |
| 515 | 01:28:37,530 --> 01:28:48,120 | c o m. That is the the program that I use to record and make these videos. You can set it to record the marketplace while you're at work while you're sleeping |
| 516 | 01:28:48,120 --> 01:28:56,970 | while you're at school, whatever. And then when you come home, you can playback the recording and watch real time price delivery. And it's a wonderful way to do |
| 517 | 01:28:56,970 --> 01:29:05,010 | journaling. If I had that resource when I first started, that's how I would do my journaling. I would make it in video format. And yes, it takes a lot of time. |
| 518 | 01:29:05,130 --> 01:29:13,860 | Yes, it would take a lot of time to manage it all. Yes. But all that time would shorten anyone's learning curve. But you don't want to put a lot of work into it |
| 519 | 01:29:13,860 --> 01:29:21,330 | and you wonder why you're not getting the results you're looking for. So fair value gaps like this, if we're bearish, we expected to go up there and sell off. |
| 520 | 01:29:21,330 --> 01:29:31,050 | But when there's a change in the state of delivery, we expect the market to go up. So all these down movements here, it's lacking what by side delivery, so |
| 521 | 01:29:31,050 --> 01:29:42,330 | it's going to want to gravitate up into them. If it ever retraces into them once it closes them in. We treat them as what inversion fair value gaps. So we see |
| 522 | 01:29:42,330 --> 01:29:52,890 | this consequent encroachment which is midpoint of the shaded area. midpoint between this low and this high. Here, we rally up to what this gap. We're |
| 523 | 01:29:52,890 --> 01:29:59,100 | treating it as an inverted pyramid again, does that mean it's going to trade right here and go higher from there? No, we have to wait and watch what is this |
| 524 | 01:29:59,100 --> 01:30:07,530 | here? This is about It's an analysis on inefficiency. What is this right here, it's a swing low. We had a nice move outside of the range of these relative |
| 525 | 01:30:07,530 --> 01:30:19,110 | equal highs. And we're into two inefficiencies, this one and this one. And now we have a short term low, it's probable, not guaranteed, it's probable that he's |
| 526 | 01:30:19,110 --> 01:30:27,750 | going to run for short term sell side liquidity, stop hunt. That's what we're getting from here. It drops down, takes up that liquidity, also respecting |
| 527 | 01:30:27,750 --> 01:30:40,800 | consequent encouragement of this fear Vega, then rallies a rally to this high and through this inversion fair value gap comes back down. Support support |
| 528 | 01:30:40,830 --> 01:30:53,520 | rallies back up. What is it creating? What's it creating here? Short term low. So what's going to be trailed up right behind that sell sign? Where are we at in |
| 529 | 01:30:53,520 --> 01:31:05,610 | the range from high to low? Here's equilibrium, we're right there in equilibrium. When this occurs, equilibrium is where you're going to anticipate |
| 530 | 01:31:05,640 --> 01:31:15,300 | you're going to predict you're going to expect a stop hunt. That's what the algorithm will do. Don't take my word for this folks. Do not take my word for it |
| 531 | 01:31:15,300 --> 01:31:24,600 | you go back and look at old price moves you're gonna see this every single time 100% of the time every single time and that's what you're seeing here a run on |
| 532 | 01:31:24,600 --> 01:31:35,310 | stops this one is two times but returning back into what this fair value gap which is an emerging paradigm yet you would take this extended over what is it |
| 533 | 01:31:35,310 --> 01:31:47,130 | respecting this order block still that's a reclaimed order block but it's also in concert with this candlesticks low it's respecting that old gap. So that |
| 534 | 01:31:47,130 --> 01:31:59,700 | makes this an entry off of what this inversion fair value gap are you hear the market find support here rallies takes up high takes up the high and trades up |
| 535 | 01:31:59,700 --> 01:32:10,260 | into what the next gap over here which will be treated as what in an inversion fair Vega. So I'm looking at like a mountain climber here. I'm looking at all |
| 536 | 01:32:10,260 --> 01:32:18,330 | the potential finger holes where I can grab a hole to pull myself up higher. That's what price is doing. That's all prices doing folks. It's so easy to |
| 537 | 01:32:18,330 --> 01:32:26,490 | understand when you try to lay down all the other stuff you're trying to bring into this you want to bring in Elliott Wave stuff still you want to bring in |
| 538 | 01:32:26,520 --> 01:32:35,160 | harmonic animal patterns that have absolutely no reason for expecting price to go higher or lower. That's a fantasy. That's a religion. Don't bring in a |
| 539 | 01:32:35,160 --> 01:32:45,360 | discussion. Wycoff it's not the man rest. Okay, he's not part of this conversation. I promise you these not when we drop down we're taking out |
| 540 | 01:32:45,360 --> 01:32:57,480 | sellside here and we're doing what we're rallying off of the low of this fair Vega to this candlesticks high. That's what we're respecting everything look at |
| 541 | 01:32:57,480 --> 01:33:07,230 | the bodies. It's telling you the story. It's supporting the idea that that is still the underlying narrative starts have been taken. control mechanisms are in |
| 542 | 01:33:07,230 --> 01:33:15,990 | place the algorithms absolutely respecting that old Fairbury get right here that again, Sam Sidon, we are cutting through candles, because that's where the |
| 543 | 01:33:15,990 --> 01:33:29,760 | narrative is derived from. Inversion paradigm you get for the win rallies, order block, touch it, does it rally higher. Yes. The data high. Yep. Do you see what |
| 544 | 01:33:29,760 --> 01:33:39,360 | tape reading is? Now? Do you understand how we're working with timeframes and we drop down to the lower timeframes. And we do not need any gimmicks to see what |
| 545 | 01:33:39,360 --> 01:33:48,900 | price should do. It's liquidity and inefficiency. It's discount and premium time of day. All these things come together to make a beautiful tapestry. And you're |
| 546 | 01:33:48,900 --> 01:33:57,960 | never surprised. Once you understand all this stuff. You're not surprised. You want to see these things form and you're waiting for them to form. My profitable |
| 547 | 01:33:57,960 --> 01:34:05,640 | students see these things before they happen. The only thing that happens when they're watching price. They're not saying oh my goodness, where did that come |
| 548 | 01:34:05,640 --> 01:34:15,060 | from? Why did that just happen? There grinning before it starts to live but they know it's coming. They are grinning right now as they're listening to because |
| 549 | 01:34:15,060 --> 01:34:21,990 | they know nodding their head e up. Yup because if we were all in the same room right now, and I said raise your hand if you've been there before all kinds of |
| 550 | 01:34:21,990 --> 01:34:31,470 | hands will be raised up. But you can't experience it until you had that experience. And you'll never have that experience until you go in and watch and |
| 551 | 01:34:31,470 --> 01:34:40,830 | study price action like this. I promise you all the things I'm teaching you they keep repeating but you want something that's easy go out there and 123 Get me |
| 552 | 01:34:40,830 --> 01:34:54,630 | and get me out never have a losing trade now I'm sorry, but there's no way to do that. I get it wrong sometimes. Sometimes. Alright, so here is the back on the |
| 553 | 01:34:54,630 --> 01:35:02,520 | 15th and timeframe. So what happens once we clear this bounce price range here or we hit the bush breaker line here? Here, we have all these inefficiencies in |
| 554 | 01:35:02,520 --> 01:35:09,210 | here. But after we get above it, what can we do now? Well, we have a target up here, that's a drain on liquidity. And then we have now this old microstructure |
| 555 | 01:35:09,210 --> 01:35:18,180 | high. So now we can take that range and draw a fib from that high up to this target. Now we have gradients. And now we're grading a future price when that |
| 556 | 01:35:18,180 --> 01:35:29,970 | has not happened yet. Soon as this candlestick right here, closes. Now we run from high to target, and we run gradients. And now watch what happens around the |
| 557 | 01:35:29,970 --> 01:35:39,570 | 20. Sorry, I have it backwards here. 75%, or the lower 25% of the range between the drawn liquidity and the high that was broken. We don't think that the |
| 558 | 01:35:39,570 --> 01:35:46,590 | markets gonna go down here. Why? Because this is a balanced price range. So we anticipate every instrument out there every little gimmick, every little toy is |
| 559 | 01:35:46,590 --> 01:35:55,920 | going to say, Oh, look, orders are getting eaten above market price. The footprint showing that look, it's bullish, just absolutely bullish. Of course it |
| 560 | 01:35:55,920 --> 01:36:03,990 | is, is going higher. So we have relative equal lows and a suite that where does that occur in the lower quadrant of the range from this high up that drone |
| 561 | 01:36:03,990 --> 01:36:13,980 | liquidity, which is the weekly mitigation block? That's what this level is up here. Then we have consolidation. Where does consolidation foreign ICT? Oh, I |
| 562 | 01:36:13,980 --> 01:36:24,180 | said it in the core content lessons back in 2016. And I taught it to everybody that was my private one on one student back in 1996. At equilibrium 50% level |
| 563 | 01:36:24,180 --> 01:36:37,440 | right here, that's where consolidation is forming. And then what happened? I stopped. Lower timeframes look in here, you'll see it rallies up another time |
| 564 | 01:36:37,440 --> 01:36:48,870 | here. And what happens here at the upper quadrant. From the drawing liquidity to this high, we're anticipating new price points that surge higher. That's what |
| 565 | 01:36:48,870 --> 01:37:01,710 | one, that's what I'm showing you here. We rally up, then we take out the liquidity above that weekly mitigation law. Then we do what we find some support |
| 566 | 01:37:01,710 --> 01:37:15,840 | at it. And then we consolidate going into Friday, New York session. That's where we're at now. This is a 15 minute timeframe on Friday. And we're consolidating |
| 567 | 01:37:16,440 --> 01:37:29,400 | markets do not talk like this folks, especially ahead of new drivers. So a market report. We're expecting prices go higher. We've consolidated we're part |
| 568 | 01:37:29,400 --> 01:37:39,150 | of a bullish run, and we're expecting capitulation to come in and that's what we're seeing here. market rallies aggressively. What are we what are we seeing |
| 569 | 01:37:39,150 --> 01:37:56,010 | here, see this gap right there. Extend that through that reducing that's an inversion periodica explosive run to the upside. retracement failed run higher |
| 570 | 01:37:57,960 --> 01:38:12,450 | back down into the sell side here for a TGIF tree. Let's take a closer look. Five minute chart on the NASDAQ here's that price run here then we have this |
| 571 | 01:38:12,450 --> 01:38:20,460 | boss Annabelle sellside inefficiency we'll get to that in a moment. And then we run up we have a blow off move and then we break down where's the fair value gap |
| 572 | 01:38:23,670 --> 01:38:34,110 | there isn't one in here, not on this side of the curve, the curve is here and then down. So you have to use the imbalance on the left side that's going to be |
| 573 | 01:38:34,110 --> 01:38:42,000 | an inversion fair value gap. Extend that through all the price action that's what you're seeing here. Then you have a small little fare bag out there that I |
| 574 | 01:38:42,000 --> 01:38:48,900 | didn't want to draw any annotations on because we have the inversion here but again I can point it out like I'm doing here trades up into here and then we |
| 575 | 01:38:48,900 --> 01:39:01,980 | break this area here is a breakaway gap. We want to see it stay open. So why should it become a breakaway gap because we have had a shift in market structure |
| 576 | 01:39:02,220 --> 01:39:13,740 | there we have a bias Annabelle sauce on inefficiency why trading NASDAQ can not the s&p ICT I'm telling you right now relatively koulos Blow off move after the |
| 577 | 01:39:13,740 --> 01:39:22,560 | market has been going straight up all week as we were expecting it to and then we have the inversion fair value gap is it respecting that Yep and then we break |
| 578 | 01:39:22,620 --> 01:39:30,630 | below the short term low here below the short term low here and where's liquidity at below here salsa but then we have this spot on a balance on |
| 579 | 01:39:30,630 --> 01:39:39,630 | efficiency so any rally from this candlestick open up in to above this high we want to see it stay open what happens if it closes in? It's okay I would still |
| 580 | 01:39:39,630 --> 01:39:48,690 | want to take a short up there if I was watching live in the market breaks down doesn't get below the what the bodies so we still have this wick to contend |
| 581 | 01:39:48,690 --> 01:40:00,750 | with. So we retrace higher of closed candles consecutively. That's a bearish order block breaks down through it. Extend the opening price There is a change |
| 582 | 01:40:00,750 --> 01:40:11,250 | in state of delivery returns back into here. And all of this consolidation is time distortion. It's not time for the market to do anything. It's not going to |
| 583 | 01:40:11,250 --> 01:40:22,080 | do it. It's already ran. The low here was the one to macro for New York. It's already did that. But we're not done. We have TGIF, it's Friday. So thank God, |
| 584 | 01:40:22,080 --> 01:40:29,130 | it's Friday, it's likely to do what 20 To 30% of the weekly range in terms of a retracement from the high of the week, whereas the high of the week over here, |
| 585 | 01:40:29,430 --> 01:40:37,710 | when can we trust that the high of the week when we see this element here, and then we start seeing everything start breaking down this highs intact. But what |
| 586 | 01:40:37,710 --> 01:40:44,700 | happens if it runs up into in goes higher, then you're wrong? How's that for logic? You're gonna get it wrong sometimes. But you have to have rules and |
| 587 | 01:40:44,700 --> 01:40:55,560 | things that work with the grow and your understanding as a trader. And this is what I'm sharing with you. What time does time distortion stop? What did I teach |
| 588 | 01:40:55,560 --> 01:41:06,000 | you post New York lunch, we start seeing two o'clock to four o'clock, that's your Pm session time. Then all of a sudden what happens the market delivers a |
| 589 | 01:41:06,000 --> 01:41:24,060 | run through low lower low fare Vega trades up into it consequent encouragement of the low on this wick boom sells off hit the sell side liquidity and trades to |
| 590 | 01:41:24,060 --> 01:41:38,820 | the 20% level on the weekly candlestick. So from the high to the low measure that in retraces 20% of the weekly range in here, below aerosol sellside. And |
| 591 | 01:41:38,820 --> 01:41:50,760 | then close real close to which is not noted here. But look at the commentary I did on July 15 2023, the video right before this one. And you'll see the TGIF |
| 592 | 01:41:50,760 --> 01:42:02,520 | levels and how to find them and mark them on your chart. This is all the details that was not in that presentation. This is what was in my trade idea. That |
| 593 | 01:42:03,840 --> 01:42:14,910 | wasn't cherry picked. I elected to use the NASDAQ because it was more exposed to inefficiency here. And it was much more inject on the upside and much more |
| 594 | 01:42:14,910 --> 01:42:25,560 | energy on the downside. So it had a better structure than that of ES. That was a reason why I did es es got real close to doing a 20% retracement of its weekly |
| 595 | 01:42:25,620 --> 01:42:36,390 | range. If you still traded es, you still would have been able to find profitability doing it. So it's not an argument about you know, ES and NASDAQ |
| 596 | 01:42:36,390 --> 01:42:49,260 | which one you should have been in because they both offered the opportunity. But NASDAQ I was in in NASDAQ was just a beautiful delivery. Right and here's a one |
| 597 | 01:42:49,260 --> 01:42:59,910 | minute chart of that time of day. Here's the pm session. And I want you to see that inefficiency that by Sanibel Simon Krishna, let me take you back up so that |
| 598 | 01:42:59,910 --> 01:43:07,920 | way you know where I'm pointing your attention to this range right here. Okay, we're looking at a five minute chart, we're going to drop down into a one minute |
| 599 | 01:43:07,920 --> 01:43:17,790 | chart and look at price action from here to here. Okay, that's we're watching. But in this shaded area right here, I'm going to put the gradients in 2550 and |
| 600 | 01:43:17,790 --> 01:43:30,420 | 75. We're going to look at this return back into that shaded area here. Okay, so here's the lower quadrant are 25% of the range that's shaded here. So here's the |
| 601 | 01:43:30,420 --> 01:43:40,140 | high 75% of that range 50% of that range 25% in that range, in the low that. So the market trades up into that. We'll come back to that in a second. Let's go |
| 602 | 01:43:40,140 --> 01:43:49,740 | back up into here and look at some of the details. Right away, this should jump off at you. That's a breakaway gap. Why? Why should that be empirical weaker? |
| 603 | 01:43:49,950 --> 01:43:59,280 | Because we are under time distortion. That means all this back and forth price action is just marking time. That's the benefit of knowing how to use a time |
| 604 | 01:43:59,280 --> 01:44:07,080 | based chart. I'm not getting fooled by candlesticks. I'm waiting for time. When does it start right there. Two o'clock in the afternoon New York local time, |
| 605 | 01:44:07,140 --> 01:44:18,540 | because the market is driven by an algorithm. There's time for everything. A beginning in the end, a pause, a consolidation and distortion where everything |
| 606 | 01:44:18,540 --> 01:44:30,030 | you try to do will chop you up. So you wait, wait for what two o'clock and then wait for displacement. What does that look like right here takes that short term |
| 607 | 01:44:30,030 --> 01:44:42,120 | love. Boom, but now we have what we're late in the day. This shaded area here is the bottom analysis on efficiency. We have moved away from the high end we moved |
| 608 | 01:44:42,120 --> 01:44:51,840 | aggressively away from the 75% up or 75% range of the shaded area. So I don't want to see this area come back into I don't want to see it come back up in |
| 609 | 01:44:51,840 --> 01:45:00,240 | trading today. But if it does, I would treat it as an institutional order flow entry job and then words a partial entry and then sell off. Either way It makes |
| 610 | 01:45:00,240 --> 01:45:09,660 | it a breakaway gap. So we don't want to see it trade back up above 50%, or consequent encroachment on this shaded area here. And now we enter into another |
| 611 | 01:45:09,660 --> 01:45:21,930 | time of day, the 250 to 310 macro, my algorithm starts at 250 to 310. And we'll start spoiling price running for the liquidity that has not been purged yet. |
| 612 | 01:45:21,960 --> 01:45:35,700 | What is that liquidity, the liquidity below the lows, the 7am, New York session time, the 830, lows, the 930, to 11, lows, all of that is to draw on liquidity. |
| 613 | 01:45:36,540 --> 01:45:46,950 | And or in this case, 20% of the weekly range. That would be anywhere in this area here. But we start to see this energetic price run aggressive, dropping |
| 614 | 01:45:46,950 --> 01:45:58,980 | lower, that's algorithmic. This right here, just like I talked about earlier, when we ran up, you can use the fair pay gap on the left side of the curve. And |
| 615 | 01:45:58,980 --> 01:46:06,120 | we've seen that happen right there, if they would have been opening here, traded up right there. If I was wanting to take trade short, and I hadn't already been |
| 616 | 01:46:06,120 --> 01:46:14,010 | short, that would be an area where I would go short right there two minute breaks. This is a measuring gap, we don't want to see that filled in just like |
| 617 | 01:46:14,010 --> 01:46:22,590 | we don't want to see that what makes this a measuring gap. Well, between this high down to this low, we're expecting that run and about halfway, we're |
| 618 | 01:46:22,590 --> 01:46:30,360 | expecting a gap to form. When it does, it moves away from it, we are not expecting it. To come back into that. That's a measuring gap, you have to know |
| 619 | 01:46:30,360 --> 01:46:37,290 | where the mark is likely to draw to. If you don't have that skill set, you will not be consistent in your ability to define or classify a measuring gap. |
| 620 | 01:46:39,150 --> 01:46:48,960 | Breakaway gaps are just gaps when you want to see an energetic price run away from an area you anticipated prior to it running away. So you're expecting it to |
| 621 | 01:46:48,960 --> 01:46:57,840 | move lower great when it finally does in a creates a gap like this, your first thought should be okay, the first phase of a gap after starting run. That should |
| 622 | 01:46:57,840 --> 01:47:04,500 | be a breakaway gap. We want to see that especially if we've been in consolidation or experiencing time distortion. time distortion is simply a |
| 623 | 01:47:04,500 --> 01:47:14,160 | matter of time between segments of time of the day where markets will start spoiling. That's it, it's a very simple thing, it doesn't mean that you should |
| 624 | 01:47:14,160 --> 01:47:20,400 | understand it right away because I said that. But over time, when you come back to these lessons like this or refer back to new future lessons, I'll talk about |
| 625 | 01:47:20,400 --> 01:47:29,220 | it, it'll make perfect sense to you is you haven't been exposed to it enough times to know exactly what I'm referring to the market value rips below the sell |
| 626 | 01:47:29,220 --> 01:47:36,990 | side liquidity does it multiple times in here and then consolidates at the close going into 20 Putana, the range of NASDAQ's weekly candle |
| 627 | 01:47:42,390 --> 01:47:54,570 | Alright, folks, so I covered a lot of stuff here. And I will admit, rather openly that this is not one of those easy, go out there. And I can do what it |
| 628 | 01:47:54,570 --> 01:48:07,230 | just taught me. Okay, but I'm showing you many things here I'm showing you a amplified version of what we do by reading tape. I've rung in macros have rung |
| 629 | 01:48:07,230 --> 01:48:16,770 | in time of day of rung in how we use breakaway gaps and measuring gaps. And how we anticipate price action. And we don't look for ladders depths, the market |
| 630 | 01:48:16,770 --> 01:48:26,040 | footprint or anything's because we're anticipating price performing a specific function. We understand order flow will kind of order flow, institutional order |
| 631 | 01:48:26,040 --> 01:48:35,490 | flow, institutional order flow is going to be based on the things I'm showing you here. Price is the thing. That's the, that's the context. That's the, that's |
| 632 | 01:48:35,490 --> 01:48:46,830 | the price that we seek, the better understanding of that, you can take the open high, low and close of every interval, and beat it up, torture it with number |
| 633 | 01:48:46,830 --> 01:48:59,190 | crunching, and have it come out with all kinds of supposedly insights, some kind of mathematically derived indicator, or you can take the past and say, Okay, |
| 634 | 01:48:59,430 --> 01:49:08,160 | this how many contracts were bought or sold at this price, and therefore I believe this or that, or you can look at a range above the marketplace price or |
| 635 | 01:49:08,160 --> 01:49:19,200 | below the marketplace price, and determine and there's a larger range of or number of orders above the marketplace than that of below it. And you might |
| 636 | 01:49:19,200 --> 01:49:30,060 | think that that is indicative of wanting to go higher. Not always think about what happens if you're in these types of situations here, where you're right |
| 637 | 01:49:30,060 --> 01:49:41,010 | before the market is going to start going lower. But your depth of market your ladder suggests that there's a lot of orders just above the market price. You |
| 638 | 01:49:41,010 --> 01:49:50,010 | might be convinced by looking at just that tool, thinking that okay, it's just start going higher and eat into that number. No, that might be just a large pool |
| 639 | 01:49:50,010 --> 01:50:00,120 | of smart money's stop loss. That isn't going to be tripped that isn't going to be eroded or eaten into and then you watch price run away and you think in |
| 640 | 01:50:00,120 --> 01:50:08,130 | yourself. Wow, look at that rip. Wow, look at that. Where'd that come from? What just happened? Somebody must be talking all these things, folks, all these |
| 641 | 01:50:08,130 --> 01:50:16,350 | things come out of the mouths of people that just don't know how to do this shit. And I want them to learn. That's all I want them to learn just like you I |
| 642 | 01:50:16,350 --> 01:50:25,920 | want them to understand how they can capture these types of price runs and not hurt themselves in the process. So if we found this one insightful, I hope those |
| 643 | 01:50:26,640 --> 01:50:30,120 | edifying for you too I'll talk to you next time. Be safe. |