ICT YT - 2023-07-03 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Advanced Theory On ICT Breaker
Outline
00:20 - Weekly Dollar Index Review.
- Weekly inefficiency on the dollar index.
- Daily and weekly charts.
03:10 - Weekly chart of the euro.
- Wicks as a gap, like the algorithm does.
- Hourly chart on euro.
- Time distortion and time frame.
- Nasdaq closes at new york.
09:09 - Daily chart of inefficiency and inefficiency.
- Inefficiency and price action on the daily chart.
- Weekly volume imbalance and inversion.
- Bullish breaker, bullish breaker and conservative trader.
- Weekly draw on liquidity and short cut.
15:01 - The high of the fair value gap.
- Finding support at the high end of the fair value gap.
- Weekly volume imbalance.
17:22 - Looking at the current low in nasdaq and es.
- Nasdaq and ETSI trading on a lower low.
- S&P and Nasdaq divergence.
- Nasdaq wants to go higher, but is unwilling to make a lower low.
- Smt analysis.
22:20 - Higher low lower lower low.
- Higher, low, lower, high and low.
- Weekly volume imbalance, blue shaded area.
- How to use large range gaps in the market.
- The five minute chart on es
29:11 - A look at today’s price action.
- Stop run on sell side, price goes higher, efficiency goes back down.
- Lunch hour macro.
- Weekly volume imbalance and old high on june 16, 2023.
- First partial price rise.
- Two ways to use the breaker, bearish and bearish.
- The two stages of liquidity.
35:35 - Using the price leg from high to low.
- Two different approaches to using the breaker pattern.
- A to b price leg.
38:27 - How to avoid a losing trade?
- The fear of losing a trade.
- The 30 years of trading experience.
- Best breakers and how to use them.
- How to use the model 2022.
43:48 - How to use a break and retest to your advantage.
- Using a break and retest trader.
- How to use a breaker to trade.
- How to use the breaker in the current market.
- How the breaker works.
49:29 - How to use relative equal high’s as a breaker.
- Relative equal highs and relative equal highs.
- How to use this information for trading.
- A/B in this run higher.
- The low and the high in the chart.
53:04 - How to use the breaker.
- Two standard deviations inside the inefficiency inside of the breaker.
- The one minute chart.
- Using the upper portion of the breaker in a one minute chart.
- The ice breaker.
57:39 - How to identify reorders in the market.
- How to identify reorder flow and price reprice.
- How to find the reference points.
- Using the short-term leg as a breaker.
- Understanding the 1150 to 1210 macro.
01:03:02 - How to take the levels for standard deviation.
- How to take the levels for standard deviation.
- Expectation of liquidity above the high.
- Understanding time first, time of day and liquidity.
- Real-time executions, not market replay.
Transcript
1 | 00:00:20,670 --> 00:00:34,560 | ICT: Good afternoon, folks. Welcome back, it's gonna be a brief review and then a short little tutorial, or amplification, if you will, of my ICT breaker. So |
2 | 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:45,660 | right away, we're looking at the dollar index is a weekly chart and see the inefficiency here between this candles low and this candles high. We worked up |
3 | 00:00:45,660 --> 00:00:58,050 | inside of that and had pretty much an indecisive candle. So it was kind of a lackluster trading session for Donald last week. This range in here, I'd like to |
4 | 00:00:58,050 --> 00:01:10,380 | see it, prove to me that it wants to go higher or lower. And to go higher, it needs to get above the rejection block here, so the close of this candle for |
5 | 00:01:10,380 --> 00:01:20,370 | trades above that, that I believe will resume going higher. If we take out this low, then I'm gonna look for liquidity below here. Because we're in the middle |
6 | 00:01:20,370 --> 00:01:32,520 | of the range. The range being the low, the high, it's indecisive, it's not one sided, it's not easy to see which side the marketplace is going to reach for. So |
7 | 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:45,630 | when it's like this, we sit still we try not to force our will or impose a a bias that's not necessarily predetermined yet. Alright, so here is daily chart. |
8 | 00:01:46,620 --> 00:01:57,540 | You can see again, this that weekly fair value gap, the bodies were just outside of that range. And that's another reason why I'm elected to sit still not really |
9 | 00:01:57,540 --> 00:02:07,890 | have a hard bias going into the new week here. It's also fourth July in the United States. The volume may be affected by that greatly. So I believe the |
10 | 00:02:08,070 --> 00:02:18,630 | latter part of this week will be the real cleanest price action. So we'll be looking for price action post Wednesday, daily fair value get up see reached |
11 | 00:02:18,630 --> 00:02:29,850 | into that. We mentioned that as a downside draw previously in previous commentary, and then we lose from this liquidity below this low and inefficiency |
12 | 00:02:30,180 --> 00:02:41,430 | around price only goes down for one of those two reasons. And it rallies back up into a short term premium relative to high and the low midpoint and here |
13 | 00:02:42,570 --> 00:02:52,350 | inefficiency on the weekly chart in transposed daily. You can see that's where we drew into and that's going to provide the backdrop for shorts in Euro dollar |
14 | 00:02:52,380 --> 00:03:08,430 | and POUND DOLLAR here's Euro dollar on the weekly chart. Weekly inefficiency is basically the opposite of what we saw on Dollar index as you would expect the |
15 | 00:03:08,430 --> 00:03:17,820 | consequent correction on this wick. Here. We treat wicks as a gap just like the algorithm does so the market saw the weekly high form right at the previous |
16 | 00:03:17,820 --> 00:03:31,590 | week's consequent curtailment of its premium, or right here. And again, indecisive, weekly range, but trading down into a discount price and bounce offs |
17 | 00:03:31,590 --> 00:03:45,900 | on efficiency which is framed by the high of this candle and the low of that candle. So it trades down into it and then back into the weekly range. Those |
18 | 00:03:45,900 --> 00:03:56,010 | weekly ranges apply to the daily chart. You can see how we traded up into Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday high of the week. Where did it form behind |
19 | 00:03:56,010 --> 00:04:05,310 | the week in the previous week's consequent coaching on this weekly candle. Don't take my word for it. Go into it and you'll see it right here. Alright, let's |
20 | 00:04:05,310 --> 00:04:18,090 | drop down into an hourly chart on Euro. Alright, so you can see how we worked lower here here is that Ron owns the previous week's custom encroachment once a |
21 | 00:04:18,090 --> 00:04:33,570 | week on weekly chart, creating high on tuesday if we're bearish we have a seven 70% likelihood of creating the high on Tuesday and we see it trading up into |
22 | 00:04:33,570 --> 00:04:47,400 | that consequent coachman breaks down find some support at the old very gap orange the higher timeframe tried to rally and get the ghost broke lower. So we |
23 | 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:59,970 | have breaker in here. Anil it looks rather sloppy and I'll be teaching a little bit more about breakers in the latter portion of this lecture. So all of this |
24 | 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:11,310 | Ron here, extend that over, you can see we're hitting that perfectly there. And just so happens to be near the upper end of that old inefficiency. So we're |
25 | 00:05:11,310 --> 00:05:22,230 | blending a lot of things in terms of inefficiency, and buyside liquidity. So it would be wrestling about this short term high here. So we rally above, back into |
26 | 00:05:24,330 --> 00:05:35,130 | a premium array, which is a breaker, trades up into it and aggressively sells off, attacking the sell side below this low, and down into that low here and |
27 | 00:05:35,130 --> 00:05:45,450 | into that discount, bear Vega. Then once we got into it, we returned quickly back up into the premium fair value got the shaded in orange, I promise you if |
28 | 00:05:45,450 --> 00:05:51,660 | you take the information I showed you in the higher timeframe, when you're in charts, and dropdowns, these lower timeframe charts like this, you'll see euros |
29 | 00:05:51,720 --> 00:06:01,260 | was beautifully handled with the elements I'm teaching you in terms of short term premium, high short term discount, low inefficiency about the Marketplace |
30 | 00:06:01,260 --> 00:06:14,520 | inefficiency below the marketplace. And day the week. In an opposite end of the range for me here on Friday. With a two minute time frame, you can see that we |
31 | 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:26,640 | have very nice drop here than the rally up and all this back and forth in here. That's not a concern for me. You might be looking at this saying okay, well |
32 | 00:06:26,670 --> 00:06:38,190 | isn't this a breaker from high to low to high or high? No. The range from this high down to that low up that high. All this price action from the high to the |
33 | 00:06:38,190 --> 00:06:48,060 | low to the high right there. I'm ignoring all of this. This is time distortion, you have to look at the time of day, when the highs are forming the algorithm |
34 | 00:06:48,060 --> 00:06:59,220 | refers to time first, not just simply because there's a price run. So we're looking at high, low, higher high. This movement down here. That's where the |
35 | 00:06:59,730 --> 00:07:10,110 | secret sauce is, if you will. I'll get to that later on. But that down close candle right there. That is the sweet spot right in here, you extend that |
36 | 00:07:10,110 --> 00:07:18,480 | forward. That's where it's hitting. Now we're cutting through candles because we are not supplying amendments of housing. The market trades up into a premium |
37 | 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:30,510 | relative to the range from high to low. And we're also reaching into the upper portion of this shaded orange inefficiency. Breaker cut through candles being |
38 | 00:07:30,870 --> 00:07:40,350 | hit at what time of day New York open aggressively runs for the sell side here and the sell side liquidity in higher timeframe and into that discount period. |
39 | 00:07:42,930 --> 00:07:53,520 | Once it enters that, then the algorithm pulls right back up into the middle of the range range being the high and low of the week. And now we're in |
40 | 00:07:53,520 --> 00:08:05,070 | consolidation inside of that premium for Vega Alright, moving right along this is the Emini s&p weekly chart. And I mentioned that we we tried to reach up into |
41 | 00:08:05,850 --> 00:08:13,590 | this weekly volume bounce and we just fell short of it. It looks like it touched it here. But promise you it didn't get there got real close to it, though. But |
42 | 00:08:13,590 --> 00:08:25,170 | it's been acting as a drop in liquidity as you remember. The NASDAQ reached up into its one bounces on its weekly chart, but we were waiting for the six SR |
43 | 00:08:25,650 --> 00:08:37,260 | effect on s&p to draw this specific index higher and we have seen it deliver like gangbusters. So bias starts on a weekly chart. We have to know where it's |
44 | 00:08:37,260 --> 00:08:45,780 | likely to reach for and then what we're doing is trying to predict. Yes, unfortunately, we do try to predict we don't react to price, we need to predict |
45 | 00:08:45,870 --> 00:08:54,570 | the likely expansion in the weekly chart. I'm not trying to pick the closing price, I have told you that we're not trying to demand that it closes on the |
46 | 00:08:54,570 --> 00:09:02,610 | higher low, we don't need that. But we want to know where it's likely to expand higher or lower. If you look real close, there was a small little inefficiency |
47 | 00:09:02,610 --> 00:09:15,300 | right there between the previous week's low and this week's high. So that little inefficiency right there. Market opened, traded down into that and rockets up |
48 | 00:09:15,660 --> 00:09:27,120 | taking out the short term high but drawing into this area here. Okay, so I suspect that still probably a factor for this week. On daily chart, you can see |
49 | 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:33,810 | we have this inefficiency here in this inefficiency here and I sent the tweet out or we can have a go statement. These are the two reference points. I liked |
50 | 00:09:33,810 --> 00:09:41,880 | that initially. At the time of that tweet. I said I favored the low end and went down into it. The top of the market was not called by me I don't try to do that |
51 | 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:47,700 | when we're in primary buy models. So we're looking for Long's |
52 | 00:09:48,810 --> 00:09:56,760 | reaching for discount and then expanding into inefficiencies of marketplace or loss of liquidity in the buy side we'll be resting right about here. And |
53 | 00:09:56,760 --> 00:10:04,170 | inefficiency would be the weekly volume unveils both being above market price. At the beginning of the week, and price drew up higher throughout the week. So |
54 | 00:10:04,170 --> 00:10:12,030 | each individual day, if you have been focusing on Long's, that's what you're doing you're filtering out and best case scenario, where the higher timeframe |
55 | 00:10:12,030 --> 00:10:20,520 | weekly chart is suggesting price may go. Ultimately, we stay with that bias each day, every session, we go in looking for a reason to be long when there's a buy |
56 | 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:29,100 | program underway. And that's what we're seeing here. Zooming in on the daily chart, I want you to see how we were beautifully delivered into this candles. |
57 | 00:10:29,250 --> 00:10:38,940 | Hi, you see that trading right there, and perfect delivery rallies up. And then we have this area here, which is a premium when it was down here, it was a |
58 | 00:10:38,940 --> 00:10:48,240 | premium for Vega. But if we're expecting to go higher, my anticipation is we're going to take up this high and gravitate towards that weekly volume imbalance. |
59 | 00:10:48,600 --> 00:11:03,000 | So the bike program would send us into discovery of buyside and premium volume and balance, you would grade this range with 2550 and 75% respective levels or |
60 | 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:12,300 | gradients. And you would treat each one of them as a target. But we only got as far as the buy side here and just fell short of touching the low end of that |
61 | 00:11:12,300 --> 00:11:20,160 | weekly volume imbalance. But this right here, as we're climbing back up into this range, if you're familiar with my market maker buy and sell model, I know |
62 | 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:29,850 | that is not Wycoff. This area here, inefficiency, which will be reached for if we're bullish, we're expecting to expand through that, that will become my |
63 | 00:11:29,850 --> 00:11:39,600 | inversion fair value, you can find that in your Wycoff textbooks. So there's our levels, we're going to show in two sets of small little trend lines, and we'll |
64 | 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:50,340 | drop down the lower timeframe. Right, so we have the market trading down into the lower fair value gap. And then we have an expansion higher. And all of this |
65 | 00:11:50,340 --> 00:12:03,090 | range right there. That range is the last close candle within the low, high lower low, which trades into what the inefficiency is two red lines here. That's |
66 | 00:12:03,090 --> 00:12:10,860 | the lower discount fair value got the one I was telling you, we can have got almost two weeks ago, I favorite the lower one in the market did drop down into |
67 | 00:12:10,860 --> 00:12:20,580 | it, then we have a displacement to the upside. Taking out short term high. If you're aggressive, you can use that high. Which one? Do you use ICT, whichever |
68 | 00:12:20,580 --> 00:12:30,270 | one I'm trusting at the time. So if you want to be a conservative trader demanding a lot more behind the trades than you would use this on here. Why that |
69 | 00:12:30,270 --> 00:12:40,920 | one because it's the hot it's the high between this low and this low, which is a bullish breaker to expand it to the right. And as price rallies about comes |
70 | 00:12:40,920 --> 00:12:51,810 | down, find some support multiple times here. Then rallies up consolidates takes out sell side there, once a stop run occurs, the market should expand higher, it |
71 | 00:12:51,810 --> 00:13:01,500 | does rips through that premium for Vega that we would expect to see a trade to and look at that look at the bodies respecting the high end of that inversion |
72 | 00:13:01,500 --> 00:13:10,170 | fair value gap. It does not need to trade down into it, it can. But these are instances where sometimes when you'll see medium executions, I'm recording it. |
73 | 00:13:10,530 --> 00:13:21,930 | I'll say it's better for these inefficiencies or that particular fair value gap to remain unfilled. We want to see this be treated as a measuring gap or a |
74 | 00:13:21,930 --> 00:13:31,980 | breakaway gap. So it's only necessary for me for you to see this area right in here provide support Messina in the body's clothes and bodies opening and then |
75 | 00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:44,700 | protraction. The inefficiency here doesn't look inefficient on a lower timeframe hourly chart, but it was based on what the daily chart. So you have to transpose |
76 | 00:13:44,700 --> 00:13:51,900 | those levels on your lower timeframes. Otherwise, you'll lose all the plot narrative and storyline behind why price should be reacting or drawing to |
77 | 00:13:51,900 --> 00:14:01,050 | specific levels. So that right there would have been an area where I would add, if I was trading E Mini s&p and looking for a reason to go long. And add more |
78 | 00:14:01,050 --> 00:14:12,120 | say for instance, say you bought the breaker down here. And you wanted to see it rip through this fair value gap. Anyone that simply looks at gaps in price |
79 | 00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:22,920 | charts now may think that every inefficiency is a buyer so they lose the idea of knowing where prices are trying to reach for it, which is the number one rule I |
80 | 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:32,460 | teach as my students coming in. I press that very hard as your main focus, because it's going to be the one that you're going to utilize for the rest of |
81 | 00:14:32,460 --> 00:14:40,500 | your career that gives you all the comfort and confidence to know what you're doing and how you're operating being bullish or bearish. bias comes by |
82 | 00:14:40,500 --> 00:14:50,100 | understanding where the higher timeframe weekly draw on liquidity is. You can't watch a video and there's nobody else out there going to show you a real short |
83 | 00:14:50,100 --> 00:15:02,160 | cut always a winner approach it takes time understanding price action, what is it reaching for? And this is enough to warrant expansion higher. And until we |
84 | 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:12,240 | find it, providing support. Remember, it's this red line here is the high of that fair value go. Let me go back up into the daily chart, I'm gonna show you |
85 | 00:15:12,270 --> 00:15:23,130 | this little area right here, where these two candles right there are occurring. And finding support at the high end, it's this. It's that level right there, |
86 | 00:15:23,130 --> 00:15:31,200 | which is the high of that fair value gap. And we're expecting price to go higher. So we're not looking for to go up here to go down. That's not the that's |
87 | 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:45,720 | not the 2022 Mo, okay, we're using this as a stepping stone are a rung on the ladder to provide us a reason to see more injection of higher prices. So we see |
88 | 00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:58,230 | that occurring right there. So that's a really good signature, even if I didn't take a partial entry and scaling in with like a pyramid position. By seeing |
89 | 00:15:58,230 --> 00:16:08,160 | that, that comforts me in terms of being on site, so I can anticipate the market reaching up into that by some liquidity over there. And it reaches up into it |
90 | 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:15,840 | and look at the bodies respecting what, that old high. Yes, we work through it. Yes, we fall just short of the weekly volume imbalance. But we're not trying to |
91 | 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:24,210 | demand that to get there. We offer ourselves off the opportunity for a best case scenario, should it trade there. But we're open to the idea that it may need to |
92 | 00:16:24,210 --> 00:16:37,860 | do that the following week, because it's doing this on a Friday. All right, s&p 15 minute candlestick, you can see a really good illustration of that run into |
93 | 00:16:37,860 --> 00:16:50,550 | that inversion, fair value gap, hits it and rallies, inefficiency, trades down into it here at the open, rips higher, consolidates, trades higher, once more |
94 | 00:16:50,580 --> 00:17:00,750 | digs into and showed you execution on Twitter. And the link will be obviously shared in into the comment section, which I'll only be the one commenting. And |
95 | 00:17:00,750 --> 00:17:09,060 | yes, I see your comments when you leave them. But it's it's personal for me. And I'm not trying to broadcast your adoration for me. It's, I don't need to share |
96 | 00:17:09,060 --> 00:17:22,050 | that. But I am just reading them. It rips into that buyside there and then comes back down into the inefficiency here with this cluster orderflow. Right there. |
97 | 00:17:22,830 --> 00:17:32,610 | And that's where we settled on the day. So on a 30 minute time frame, if you look at this, we have obviously been looking for higher prices on NASDAQ and on |
98 | 00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:42,540 | ES and I'm focusing primarily on es because I've been teaching conceptually the six SR concepts I have. And we've already seen the upside leadership by NASDAQ. |
99 | 00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:55,860 | So we have been focusing on ES to show how that particular index has been drawn higher in sympathy, trying to catch up to what was delivered with the run higher |
100 | 00:17:55,860 --> 00:18:06,990 | in NASDAQ. So because we're bullish, we want to look for periods where there is accumulation, accumulation of Long's so we can see. We have a low and a lower |
101 | 00:18:06,990 --> 00:18:16,950 | low in ES. on NASDAQ. We're seeing a divergence there NASDAQ saying no, I'm not willing to make that lower low like we did in s&p respectively. So this is SMT |
102 | 00:18:16,950 --> 00:18:31,230 | divergence. And we would expect price to go higher. If we were looking for the market to trade with the leadership issue. Okay, now let's say the NASDAQ hadn't |
103 | 00:18:31,230 --> 00:18:42,420 | already established, its dominance higher. But it has been for weeks and get us this divergence here, then I would have been trading NASDAQ. But because NASDAQ |
104 | 00:18:42,420 --> 00:18:51,900 | has already done a lot of upside, and I'm treating the sick sister approach. The fact that we have this divergence down here, which is a lower low, but not |
105 | 00:18:51,900 --> 00:19:01,140 | lower, low NASDAQ, you're probably wondering, why wouldn't you treat an asset you're not incorrect by doing that. But I'm teaching you are using the six SR |
106 | 00:19:01,140 --> 00:19:15,210 | approach that might sympathy this is going to try to trade higher, and a little bit more. I don't want to say stronger, but more reliable. Because NASDAQ has |
107 | 00:19:15,210 --> 00:19:25,440 | already done its upside delivery. So the s&p is basically not have its better days ahead, which is what we saw last week on the upside. So I would view this |
108 | 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:36,210 | low being taken out there as a stop run. And that's how you trust a turtle soup entry. Okay, buying sell stops. And this would be simply just buying the |
109 | 00:19:36,210 --> 00:19:43,560 | stronger leadership issue at the time and you wouldn't be incorrect by doing it because you can see it does in fact rally but look at the delivery of price in |
110 | 00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:44,700 | comparison between the two. |
111 | 00:19:46,980 --> 00:19:55,830 | A lot more willingness to show it wants to go higher because look, we rallied higher and then come back down and touched the high end of that fairway get |
112 | 00:19:55,830 --> 00:20:08,040 | which is a certain level here. And then we also have that breaker extending it for inside of that range. We can meet buying has a lot of support of discount |
113 | 00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:19,470 | behind this entry area here. And at the same time, look what's occurring in NASDAQ, it's really muddy, meaning that it's not so sure footing. Compared to |
114 | 00:20:19,470 --> 00:20:28,020 | that one, where we have a higher low here, we don't see the higher low here, it's a slopping consolidation. So here rips higher comes back in and really |
115 | 00:20:28,020 --> 00:20:37,380 | wants to go higher, one more time touch to the inversion pair Vega, and it's the low the bullish breaker, and it rips higher and consolidates the rest of the |
116 | 00:20:37,380 --> 00:20:48,120 | day. And then we have another confirmation that we're looking for higher delivery in price. low, lower low. So this is a stop run below those lows here. |
117 | 00:20:48,210 --> 00:20:57,120 | So that's around Southside liquidity, and it touches the breaker bullish breaker. At the same time, NASDAQ is unwilling to make a lower low, that's SMT, |
118 | 00:20:57,360 --> 00:21:04,980 | it's telling you that there's accumulation is a cracking correlation. And this will never stop working. The markets will always have these types of |
119 | 00:21:04,980 --> 00:21:13,230 | inefficiencies when prices are running out highs and lows, respectively. If you have a bias, if you know you're looking for higher prices, and you see these |
120 | 00:21:13,230 --> 00:21:23,220 | confirmations, that's what this is this is not a timing tool. It's not a selection tool. It's a confirmation. Okay, because we're using SMT, as a |
121 | 00:21:23,220 --> 00:21:34,980 | qualifier, to indicate that we are in fact on side by trying to be bullish. And we can use this idea too. If you're a turtle soup type trader, if you're trying |
122 | 00:21:34,980 --> 00:21:46,620 | to train yourself to the buy, sell stops or sell buy stops. I mean, you're doing a run against the existing pending orders above the marketplace or below the |
123 | 00:21:46,620 --> 00:21:54,870 | marketplace. Without this insight, and not to understand where the market is going to go to, you're going to find that trading turtle soup pattern, or false |
124 | 00:21:54,870 --> 00:22:02,760 | breakout in trading in the opposite direction, it's gonna be very difficult for you to do that, and scary. But this is how you learn how to do it and you do |
125 | 00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:12,450 | months of this type of analysis, then you can go in here and just buy sell stops and sell five stops. And you've seen me do executions of that recording it the |
126 | 00:22:12,450 --> 00:22:21,480 | primary function of SMT behind this is supporting the idea that we are in a buy program and it's okay to keep focusing on longs for ES. So the market goes |
127 | 00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:34,170 | higher, again, no area here. higher low, lower low. So what is this, this is reaching for the relative equal lows for the sell side. So this is a run on sell |
128 | 00:22:34,170 --> 00:22:48,270 | side liquidity. So a trader using NASDAQ, they could use that as a long entry. thing here, buying sell side, but we're seeing what relative strength now show |
129 | 00:22:48,270 --> 00:23:04,980 | up in Yes. higher low, lower low. It's the time of the week where the market wants to reach for its finale, it's reaching high up into the June 16 2023 high, |
130 | 00:23:05,010 --> 00:23:13,050 | which is this level right here. And gravitating towards that weekly volume imbalance. What's that blue shaded area here, it's not showing the entire range, |
131 | 00:23:13,050 --> 00:23:20,250 | because I want to have all the details being shown here. But again, look how it's treating the top end of that inversion fair value got on the daily chart, |
132 | 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:33,150 | hits it an rips higher, reaching into that buy sell liquidity above June 16 2003 is high. And then the added benefit of knowing that that weekly volume imbalance |
133 | 00:23:33,150 --> 00:23:47,100 | shaded in blue, that's a large magnet for the algorithm to reach up into that because inefficiency. So when we're down here, down here, in here, or here, in |
134 | 00:23:47,100 --> 00:23:57,480 | here, they're all points of reference for you to either be long add to existing positions if you're short term or a swing trader, or just confirming that your |
135 | 00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:06,690 | own side for bias and then you can look for lower timeframe order flow, like for a silver bullet in the 10 o'clock till 11 o'clock morning hour or 2pm 3pm |
136 | 00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:15,030 | afternoon silver bullet. So it's a lot of things you can do to work with this information. But I leave it to you to determine how you're going to use it for |
137 | 00:24:15,030 --> 00:24:22,860 | your particular model. And you can use the multiplier of your choice. It could be a little trade entry, it could be a bowl, shorter walk that you're trading |
138 | 00:24:22,860 --> 00:24:30,960 | on, you could be buying sell side liquidity, you can be doing emerging fair value gaps, record fair value gaps, institutional order flow entry drills. The |
139 | 00:24:30,990 --> 00:24:40,530 | list is endless in terms of what it is you want to trade. And whatever that multiplier is was a pdra that I've taught. That's your entry model. But this is |
140 | 00:24:40,530 --> 00:24:46,710 | the framework to determine where the markets gonna go and when it's going to be confirming to you that it wants to go higher. Alright, I'm gonna take all this |
141 | 00:24:46,710 --> 00:25:04,560 | other extra stuff off here so you can see the divergences lower, higher, lower, higher, higher Lower, all indicating that it wants to go higher. Now, many times |
142 | 00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:13,590 | my students when they first see an instruction or lecture video about SMT, they think that they need to go into the charts and look for the discrepancy or |
143 | 00:25:13,590 --> 00:25:24,330 | difference between lower low and and there's no lower low here, okay, that means they can go wrong. That's not how you use SMT. It is a qualifier, okay, it just |
144 | 00:25:24,330 --> 00:25:36,540 | gives you confirmation that orderflow is probably not in a direction that you see the lower low being made. When a higher low is being formed. In a market, |
145 | 00:25:36,540 --> 00:25:46,620 | you're anticipating to be bullish anyway. So we were looking for this area up here for weeks, we've been calling this month actually a draw up here for ES. So |
146 | 00:25:46,620 --> 00:25:55,980 | we've been bullish on es for months. And finally, we just fell short of it here. And I'm, I'm not convinced that we had the high form here. So we're likely to |
147 | 00:25:55,980 --> 00:26:06,270 | see it drop into that going into this week's trading. Alright, so here is the five minute chart on ES and I'm showing it in regular trading hours. So that we |
148 | 00:26:06,270 --> 00:26:15,330 | were showing that gap right here. So this is where we settled on Thursday. And we opened up at 930, on Fridays trading regular trading hours. So if we add the |
149 | 00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:27,720 | details in here, sent a tweet out on June 30 2023. At 9:52am. This is always in New York local time. And rate there is the candle, I made that post on Twitter. |
150 | 00:26:28,500 --> 00:26:41,310 | I said that this high 4493 and three quarters. That high right there is the daily, June 16 2003. Hi, I said that that my side is juicy, meaning that it's |
151 | 00:26:41,310 --> 00:26:52,620 | going to want to gravitate towards that. So how would you use that information? Well, you can use it with very gaps. Boy shorter blocks, buying sell side |
152 | 00:26:52,620 --> 00:27:03,030 | liquidity, the lowest lows, what sells on. So you can be a buyer down there. Oh, wait a minute ICT? Didn't you say that these opening range gaps, they can draw |
153 | 00:27:03,030 --> 00:27:12,060 | price down in Yes. But there's also tendencies for the market to have these large range gaps, because it's in a hurry to get somewhere in a hurry get to |
154 | 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:23,580 | that weekly volume imbalance and shaded blue. And the boss on liquidity I told you are here. So we dropped down ahead of lunch, and near for lunch hour, we |
155 | 00:27:23,580 --> 00:27:35,370 | took out sellside there rally to create a fair value gap. That's what I'm showing you here. Right there. Okay, market drops down into that perfectly, and |
156 | 00:27:35,370 --> 00:27:44,280 | then rallies away and attacks what this area of relative equal heights. So this is your first initial bias on liquidity, then larger pool of liquidity is here |
157 | 00:27:44,700 --> 00:27:54,180 | on the daily chart on June 16 2023. That daily high, you see we gravitated towards there, we worked around that level and finally punched up and just fell |
158 | 00:27:54,180 --> 00:28:02,130 | short of reaching into that weekly volume imbalance. And then finally, at the last portion of the day, the market rips back into the range and trades into |
159 | 00:28:02,130 --> 00:28:14,520 | this inefficiency between these two, five minute candles versus a 10 minute very. Zooming in here on a five minute chart, again, here's where I said that we |
160 | 00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:28,410 | would be looking for a draw to 44 93.75 by side, this level right here is that high on the daily chart. The market gravitates from this point here, all the way |
161 | 00:28:28,410 --> 00:28:38,070 | up into that level there. So you do not look for shorts here. You don't lose your mind and become fearful because we have a huge opening range gap on Friday |
162 | 00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:51,480 | with unfinished business that June 16 has buyside it wanted it. I indicated that here. No other timeframe on Friday, I point to a lower target. I did not say |
163 | 00:28:51,480 --> 00:29:00,330 | another level that failed to hit. Okay, we talked about this as draw on liquidity, that weekly volume imbalance. But I gave a very specific level for |
164 | 00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:13,890 | targeting. So when we look for the directional bias to really come into effect, we're looking for higher prices. We did get a stop run on sell side there. And |
165 | 00:29:13,890 --> 00:29:23,580 | then we've seen price go higher and inefficiency comes back down into it. Now we're in lunch. So where's the buy side above here. So above those relative |
166 | 00:29:23,580 --> 00:29:34,440 | equal highs, that's what this is right there are down in the one minute chart now. So 4487 and a half, that's by side. Here's that five minute fair Vega. |
167 | 00:29:36,390 --> 00:29:48,870 | I will be teaching and talking about this coming week. The 1115 to 1210 macro. It's a time of day where the algorithm will begin a price run. It runs for |
168 | 00:29:48,870 --> 00:29:57,720 | liquidity. Societies here, it drops down right there and then goes higher. Let me take you back up to the five minutes that we know where you're at and get |
169 | 00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:08,340 | your bearings we're looking at the This rung here and drop down between these two blue lines targeting that initially, but ultimately above June 16 2023. So |
170 | 00:30:08,340 --> 00:30:16,260 | that those levels here, we're going to look at all this price action and this run up here. Right now it's on a five minute chart. Looking at it now on a one |
171 | 00:30:16,260 --> 00:30:26,340 | minute chart, it looks like this. Here's the relative equal highs. The drop down below the lower sell side is and then at 1150 1210, the algorithm will begin its |
172 | 00:30:26,460 --> 00:30:34,650 | bimodal, it will run higher trades into the inefficient it doesn't look like inefficiency. Here, only one minute chart does it, which is a reason why you |
173 | 00:30:34,650 --> 00:30:45,360 | have to cycle through timeframes, you have to be able to go through a 54321 minute chart when you're day trading, because you'll see the inefficiency that |
174 | 00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:55,320 | the market will reprice to. And then once it does that perfectly, and it's time of day, when we expect what the lunch run on liquidity that's here. And we're |
175 | 00:30:55,320 --> 00:31:05,370 | blending not only is the lunch hour, macro reaching out for the buy side, but it's also this would be a run in the same direction of our high timeframe. Bias |
176 | 00:31:05,490 --> 00:31:15,660 | reaching for the June 16. High because in normal instances, like say we were bearish, we would see the market rip up into here, take out the buy side and |
177 | 00:31:15,660 --> 00:31:23,970 | then work lower because we're gonna sell program on a higher timeframe charts. We're not in a bearish sell program, we're in a higher timeframe bullish buy |
178 | 00:31:23,970 --> 00:31:34,080 | program, meaning that that shaded blue area up here that weekly volume imbalance and old high on June 16 2023, above that high is going to be by sight, someone |
179 | 00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:44,550 | went short, large funds have liquidity above their what kind by side by stops, they're protecting they were holding shorts, the algorithm runs against that |
180 | 00:31:44,670 --> 00:31:53,430 | it's not running against you. Okay, it's not looking for your order is going over the large fund liquidity is over, it's running for a higher timeframe |
181 | 00:31:53,430 --> 00:32:06,810 | inefficiency, which is also conveniently allowing that algorithm to reprice against the buyside liquidity resting above June 16 2023. So this run higher, it |
182 | 00:32:06,810 --> 00:32:15,600 | gets into here and you see there's a first partial rate above relative equal highs I'm holding, you want to catch the big runs the big rips higher and lower |
183 | 00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:27,240 | and get them lines portion of the daily range. That's what I show in here. First partial here. Then I took the idea of the high here to that high, and I did |
184 | 00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:38,460 | gradients. And you'll see that in the execution video. I want to see it reach up into those levels, and I laid it out limit orders. And then I had one up in here |
185 | 00:32:38,460 --> 00:32:46,710 | and had one ultimately, just below the weekly volume imbalance. Let's see if it can reach for it as a best case scenario. Didn't get that again and come back |
186 | 00:32:46,710 --> 00:33:04,560 | down and stop me out here on the final single contract. If you look at the diagram here, this is my bearish breaker. This is not a break and retest. Okay, |
187 | 00:33:04,590 --> 00:33:18,240 | it's not an fu candle. It's not like off. It is a schematic in terms of understanding how runs on liquidity, and then a repricing lower occurs. So what |
188 | 00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:29,580 | we need to know is where is liquidity. Now there's two ways to use the breaker. This is a bearish breaker. And what we're understanding with this diagram is |
189 | 00:33:29,610 --> 00:33:38,370 | there's obviously when you have a market that is predisposed to go lower. If you're anticipating the market going lower if you're looking for a bear market |
190 | 00:33:38,370 --> 00:33:49,740 | to provide a additional entry or point of reference for pyramiding new short positions, this is what you're looking for. Okay. This is one of the strongest |
191 | 00:33:49,770 --> 00:34:04,110 | PDA arrays I have because the characteristic behind this PD array is that is acting on pending orders. So if you've ever traded and had your stock run, hit, |
192 | 00:34:04,290 --> 00:34:12,090 | and then see it run in your favor after your stop loss was hit. That's what this pattern capitalizes on. It really takes you into the marketplace in terms of a |
193 | 00:34:12,090 --> 00:34:25,740 | narrative to attack the ill informed or retail trader that tries to look for continuations, some kind of trend following model, if they have no idea where |
194 | 00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:35,490 | liquidity is and what the narrative is and why the market should be going lower. They get many times trapped by this move. They will be caught being a buyer of a |
195 | 00:34:35,490 --> 00:34:45,570 | breakout above a short term high. And then it only goes up to a higher Time Frame Buy Sell liquidity where the actual reversal occurs. There's two stages of |
196 | 00:34:45,570 --> 00:34:54,120 | liquidity for the highest form of precision with my breaker. You'll always have the short term vise on liquidity above the short term high but it's going to |
197 | 00:34:54,150 --> 00:35:03,420 | want to reach into a higher timeframe by some liquidity and then you're waiting to see if it runs away from And then inside of this price, like from a to b, |
198 | 00:35:03,930 --> 00:35:13,830 | that right there is what you're looking for, for targeting. Now I hadn't taught this before is the first time you my charter members and my private mentorship, |
199 | 00:35:13,830 --> 00:35:24,300 | which nobody can join anymore and I don't even make videos from anymore. Okay, the only thing they get to do is ask me questions. So this ADB leg, we're |
200 | 00:35:24,300 --> 00:35:36,180 | ignoring all this, this is market for traction, okay, this is the manipulation. So with this out of the equation, okay, think of this as time distortion. It's |
201 | 00:35:36,180 --> 00:35:46,260 | running from the low to the high and to get that liquidity. But once it does that, ignore it for a second, because this is not the 2022 model 20.2, something |
202 | 00:35:46,260 --> 00:35:54,570 | entirely different, where you would use this price, like, Oh, you're confusing it, I understand. If you watch the videos, there's two different approaches |
203 | 00:35:54,570 --> 00:36:06,720 | being used. Okay, we're using the price leg from A to B, once this market creates this run here and starts to drop down, if I trust their own side, if |
204 | 00:36:06,720 --> 00:36:16,740 | that means I'm bearish, okay, I'm expecting lower prices, I'm already going short, when it runs above the buy side, it may not be my biggest position, I |
205 | 00:36:16,740 --> 00:36:26,790 | might scale in a larger portion, I'll give an example. The model I've been showing you with trading ES is I'll go in and trade six contracts first, then |
206 | 00:36:26,790 --> 00:36:40,650 | I'll add three, and then I'll add one for a 10 lot position. So I'm scaling in this type of trade here, I would go in with one at three in here. And then six |
207 | 00:36:40,650 --> 00:36:44,610 | on a really good run into the breaker. |
208 | 00:36:46,290 --> 00:36:58,260 | I'm building in the likelihood of even if I'm wrong, and it goes against me on the six contracts, I have three and one that help offset or mitigate most of the |
209 | 00:36:58,260 --> 00:37:05,220 | drawdown that would be occurring, it was the couldn't reverse and pick up that high. I'm not suggesting that you should trade that way. But I am trying to |
210 | 00:37:05,220 --> 00:37:11,760 | teach you a little bit more in terms of amplification of the breaker pattern. Because there's a lot of people on YouTube, a lot of people making courses and |
211 | 00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:22,230 | mentorships. And they really don't know what you're doing, and are really misguiding people. So to keep you from doing that, and to correct you this of |
212 | 00:37:22,230 --> 00:37:34,770 | this lessons for I'll have a lot more details about these PV arrays in my books. But I want to give this today, this A to B price leg, you take that leg from |
213 | 00:37:34,770 --> 00:37:43,560 | high down to the low and you lay your Fibonacci on that. And then you you do your standard deviations lower. Whatever this range is, from here to here, one |
214 | 00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:53,160 | standard deviation lower. That is the easiest bread and butter approach to using the breaker. If you're on one side, and you know you're looking for it, and |
215 | 00:37:53,160 --> 00:38:00,810 | you're in a bear market, you don't need it to come down into this level here and trade back up many times you'll see me annotative breaker and I'm entering in |
216 | 00:38:00,810 --> 00:38:08,880 | this price leg running lower before he even breaks up that low. Because I'm not a breakout trader. I'm not a break and retest trader. So everybody thinks that |
217 | 00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:17,400 | I'm channeling into a breaker, no, they have no idea, you have no idea if you think that you've zero understanding what I'm doing. I can be selling short |
218 | 00:38:17,460 --> 00:38:26,820 | throughout this entire range using the 2020 model. And then use the breaker as an additional area where I can add in pyramid more, or I can simply just wait |
219 | 00:38:26,820 --> 00:38:33,300 | for it to come back now. Or you could do that if you want to be very conservative. Wait for it to provide some means to go back up here. Now here. |
220 | 00:38:33,300 --> 00:38:43,170 | It's what you're afraid of. What happens if I go short here, and it goes right up here or goes into my stop also stops? And you know, you take a loss. How's |
221 | 00:38:43,170 --> 00:38:52,020 | that for logic? Then you consider does it still want to go lower? If it does, and nothing's changed, you just got stopped out. You just go in again, with half |
222 | 00:38:52,020 --> 00:39:00,030 | the position size that you used on your first trade. That's all you do, folks, you're not going to avoid a losing trade, it's going to happen, you will lose. |
223 | 00:39:00,330 --> 00:39:09,330 | Okay, I have losing trades. If I traded every single day, every single session and tried to trade everything I've ever taught. Invariably, I would have losing |
224 | 00:39:09,330 --> 00:39:18,300 | trades. But what I have done over 30 years is I've determined the ones I really favor based on the dynamics in the marketplace at the time, the present |
225 | 00:39:18,300 --> 00:39:25,350 | narrative where it's likely to go where's the next drama, liquidity, what day of the week it is what timeframe, what session, all those things. It's 30 years |
226 | 00:39:25,350 --> 00:39:33,570 | behind me doing that. So when I talk about things in advance on Twitter, and I show you executions, I'm leaning on that 30 years experience that you don't have |
227 | 00:39:33,570 --> 00:39:40,800 | 30 years experience and I'm not trying to talk down or be condescending. But if I tried to do everything all the time and through a kitchen sink approach, like |
228 | 00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:48,840 | many of you try to do and you get frustrated. I'm looking at the best scenarios because I have the experience determine it. Your time learning to use these |
229 | 00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:59,400 | tools. You will do that over time too. It may not take you 30 years, obviously. But I'm telling you, it's going to take you much longer than you probably |
230 | 00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:08,370 | anticipate or hope to see it require. And it's okay, that's normal everyone gets excited about, you wouldn't go out and try to use it right away. But you're also |
231 | 00:40:08,370 --> 00:40:18,840 | dealing with the most ruthless industry in this world, the financial markets, they're not easy for a reason. If it was easy, everybody would be doing it. But |
232 | 00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:28,020 | this language I'm teaching you, allows you to go in and see where there are opportunities for you to go in and exploit these inefficiencies or imbalances. |
233 | 00:40:30,330 --> 00:40:38,730 | Obviously, like everything I teach, everything can be reversed. And what we want to see here, if we're bullish, this could be a reversal pattern, or it could be |
234 | 00:40:38,760 --> 00:40:47,460 | a continuation in an existing bull market. Okay, so if we're presently thereby program and we're expecting higher prices, this can be used intraday, any |
235 | 00:40:47,460 --> 00:40:55,680 | timeframe, by the way, these patterns form, but you have to understand what there's liquidity in the best breakers are going to see two levels of sell side, |
236 | 00:40:55,830 --> 00:41:03,420 | obviously, the short term that would be created with the short term low here and a rally up and then a lower drop into a much more significant or, or higher |
237 | 00:41:03,420 --> 00:41:11,970 | timeframe sells out liquidity. So there's two pools of liquidity that's been engaged here, it's this one by by default, that makes the breaker and then we're |
238 | 00:41:11,970 --> 00:41:24,900 | seeing region to another level. The qualified and I like to see is Ira anticipate this liquidity here, lower a lower drawn liquidity and I love when it |
239 | 00:41:24,900 --> 00:41:34,170 | goes down real close to it and starts to rally because I know what that's doing. It's enticing folks that see that's a time to go long. In this run higher |
240 | 00:41:34,170 --> 00:41:42,510 | engineers more liquidity below that, well, it makes this a much more juicy your liquidity pool, so it drops aggressively down in here. Once it takes the sell |
241 | 00:41:42,510 --> 00:41:50,010 | side out, I could be going long if I'm extremely bullish. If on one side, I'm trusting all my analysis, everything is indicating that this market, whatever it |
242 | 00:41:50,010 --> 00:42:00,840 | is, is going to go higher, I will buy those cell stops. Now you may not have the confidence to do that. That's okay, you can treat this price room here, you can |
243 | 00:42:00,840 --> 00:42:15,300 | use the model 2022 to enter in that any fair value got in here that forms you can anticipate that that run or use the rules that takes out this high here. Any |
244 | 00:42:15,300 --> 00:42:25,590 | retracement back then later ended up price run that would be 2020 real rules. But I can be entering in this without any need to take out that high yet. But |
245 | 00:42:25,590 --> 00:42:35,100 | once it gets down here, my eye goes right to that lake from A to B and I run standard deviations off of that. And the easiest bread and butter setup would be |
246 | 00:42:35,490 --> 00:42:44,370 | is using the low to the high. Being long in here somewhere in here with a fair value gap for institutional or for entry drill, or inversion fair value got |
247 | 00:42:44,520 --> 00:42:57,540 | something in this lake here, there'll be a fair value got retreated back above it. Find some support target here and then two legs of this run. So in other |
248 | 00:42:57,540 --> 00:43:07,740 | words, whatever is low is to this high, add it to this high up. So that would be one standard deviation of this price range a to b as the easiest easiest, just |
249 | 00:43:08,190 --> 00:43:18,960 | bread and butter setup, you can literally carve out an income a career just with that. But the wonderful thing is, it's not limited to that little ICT is gonna |
250 | 00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:27,330 | teach you how to take this information and supercharge it. If you understand where the markets gonna go on a higher timeframe. If you're utilizing something |
251 | 00:43:27,330 --> 00:43:37,140 | like this pattern here to get in sync with a higher timeframe bimodal you can then use the standard deviations between point A and point B and see if they |
252 | 00:43:37,140 --> 00:43:47,580 | agree with a larger higher timeframe pool of liquidity you may be utilizing for the ultimate bias or draw that you're reaching for based on the higher timeframe |
253 | 00:43:47,580 --> 00:44:01,950 | trade. So I'll give you examples. Alright, so here we are looking at where we have opened for this week. Presently we are at July 2 2023. It's five minutes |
254 | 00:44:02,070 --> 00:44:13,200 | after six on this candle here. Time in New York is almost 10 minutes after six. Always have your charts shown on trading view with the New York session there. |
255 | 00:44:14,070 --> 00:44:28,410 | So here we have the low the highs of the five minute chart by the way, low high lower low. So this is a breaker inside of this price like from a to b remember |
256 | 00:44:28,410 --> 00:44:37,800 | we're bullish we're looking for the run from this low to high to do our standard deviations. I've already went through the idea buying here because we can be |
257 | 00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:47,160 | buying inside this lake right there. We don't need to see this high broken inferior traded back to us support. That is one way of using a breaker but when |
258 | 00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:55,590 | you understand where the market is likely to go, you can trade in this run before happens. So you you're not becoming a break and retest type trader like |
259 | 00:44:55,920 --> 00:45:05,520 | many of the critics will say that I'm teaching you to be no and I'm not afraid can retest traitor But this low to high to lower low if you take that A to be |
260 | 00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:18,060 | like you're ignoring this as a run on liquidity. So all this is time distortion. This drop down is both manipulation and time distortion you are getting knocked |
261 | 00:45:18,060 --> 00:45:25,590 | out. If you're long and using this as a stop loss, the mark comes back down repricing that level does the dirty work of knocking those traders that have a |
262 | 00:45:25,770 --> 00:45:37,800 | sell stop below here on your long were maybe briefly profitable, and then drop down goes against them stops them out, most traders will not want to go back in. |
263 | 00:45:38,370 --> 00:45:44,700 | If you did take a trade like that you get stopped out, you wait for this type of scenario here where it creates an imbalance. Once it does that you can be a |
264 | 00:45:44,700 --> 00:45:52,650 | buyer right there. And trust that we've already did a stock run with this run here below that low. But a to b price leg, you use that for your standard |
265 | 00:45:52,650 --> 00:46:02,850 | deviations. If I show you the fit right away, you guys can see it, you want to take notes. And that's what my foot looks like. Okay, I'm here to hear you start |
266 | 00:46:02,850 --> 00:46:12,210 | running scenarios where you have a standard deviation of negative one. So that's one standard deviation. This leg from here to here projected higher. So it's a |
267 | 00:46:12,210 --> 00:46:21,510 | measured move. You're not measuring from here to here, you're measuring here, here. So it gives you 4496 and a half. That is easy, easy, easy bread and butter |
268 | 00:46:21,510 --> 00:46:34,080 | setup for entry right there. We don't even need this hard to be broken. But inside this price leg, we're using the upclose candles. More specifically, if |
269 | 00:46:34,080 --> 00:46:43,710 | you look at it like this, we have this level here. So I'm going to annotate that. Okay, as you can see it now take this off |
270 | 00:46:45,510 --> 00:46:56,820 | this down close candle right there, that disrupts this price room. So it's this range right there, we would use all that to be a buyer who would use all that |
271 | 00:46:56,820 --> 00:47:07,440 | range there for a return back into the breaker. So this is what you classically see in some of my recordings where I'll show if, if I think they're going to go |
272 | 00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:16,350 | higher and need to pull back into larger retracement, we wouldn't want to expect that here. Because it's number one, it's Friday of last week, it's really close |
273 | 00:47:16,350 --> 00:47:27,180 | to that June 16. High anyway. So we don't want to see deep retracements. So what makes me comfortable buying inside of the price leg before breaker is ever |
274 | 00:47:27,690 --> 00:47:38,280 | qualified, based on my initial teachings in it, and then you see it usually come back and retest it, and then run it rallies higher. We don't need that I don't |
275 | 00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:45,990 | need that. Sometimes you'll see me annotate the breaker. And I'm getting long right in here and adding to an existing position or entering right away from |
276 | 00:47:45,990 --> 00:47:54,780 | there. Because I understand that on one side, everything is indicated at once I want to pull liquidity or inefficiency about the marketplace. And I'm including |
277 | 00:47:54,780 --> 00:48:06,000 | the idea that we're on Friday. So the markets gonna be in a hurry to get to that liquidity and draw maybe up into that weekly volume imbalance. So we have two |
278 | 00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:14,730 | real strong factors acting like a magnet a draw on liquidity pulling price up, so the algorithm keeps repricing higher. It doesn't matter how many people come |
279 | 00:48:14,730 --> 00:48:24,240 | in selling short, it does not matter what that volume is. All the sellers can come in all they want. All the book maps all the level two indicators have shown |
280 | 00:48:24,240 --> 00:48:30,660 | that there's a lot of new sellers that want to come in the market doesn't matter. The market don't have this key repricing higher, higher, higher higher, |
281 | 00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:43,080 | and you can't fight that. So all this insight here allows you to differentiate how we use my breaker. There is not just one approach to using it yet to |
282 | 00:48:43,080 --> 00:48:51,600 | understand the narrative, the day of the week, all the factors involved, and blending a lot of other things which makes it a little bit more complicated than |
283 | 00:48:51,600 --> 00:48:58,350 | your classic Support and Resistance idea that you're already failing with anyway, because you can't qualify retail Support Resistance based on what you |
284 | 00:48:58,350 --> 00:49:09,270 | see in books. With what I'm teaching you it helps qualify very specific levels of dynamic support and resistance. I'm not a Support Resistance trader, I have |
285 | 00:49:10,440 --> 00:49:21,000 | given you a language so that way you can see how the algorithm itself that delivers price will react and respect specific price levels. Now, if we take |
286 | 00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:38,910 | this information and go one step further. We have relative equal highs right in here. Okay, see that? So these relative equal highs, what do we see above those |
287 | 00:49:38,910 --> 00:49:50,670 | relative equal highs in our mind we anticipate what might have occurred. So when it goes above it here did it take out the buy side at that 4496 and a half that |
288 | 00:49:50,670 --> 00:50:01,350 | was measured with this range here yet? No. But we can now use this as a qualifier for a new breaker so it could be reaching up there to go lower, and if |
289 | 00:50:01,350 --> 00:50:13,500 | it wants to do that we can anticipate how far it's going to retrace lower with the Friday retracement, we can use this information with the breaker for |
290 | 00:50:13,500 --> 00:50:24,810 | targeting. And not that either you want to go short. But we can frame if there is going to be like a TGIF trade, where you anticipate the market trading back |
291 | 00:50:24,810 --> 00:50:33,870 | into the weekly range, which is what we're seeing here. It needs to get to this liquidity before it does that TGIF trade. Okay, a lot of you were anticipating |
292 | 00:50:33,870 --> 00:50:41,460 | on Twitter reaching out to me saying TGIF is gonna have to happen. But you have to see it get to the liquidity and fulfill its weekly range before it wants to |
293 | 00:50:41,550 --> 00:50:51,120 | pull back in. So where does it give us details for that? If you look at the high here, which doesn't break above that 4496 and a half it trades to it. Look at |
294 | 00:50:51,120 --> 00:51:03,420 | the high of that candle right there. It's right here, watch this one up here. It's exactly at 4496 and a half folks, that's perfect. That's this A to B, it |
295 | 00:51:03,420 --> 00:51:16,020 | goes right to that level there but doesn't go any higher. And it drops down. And it creates what? A breaker right there. So now I'm not trying to go short. I'm |
296 | 00:51:16,020 --> 00:51:25,020 | watching and trying to see if they want to reach up into here. But how can you use this information. If you want to be a TGIF trader and trade inside the range |
297 | 00:51:25,410 --> 00:51:38,550 | or weekly range as a pullback? Look at this breaker here. A B in this run higher. This here is this part of this run. So this is inside the range that |
298 | 00:51:38,550 --> 00:51:45,810 | would take you above go look at the bodies. See where stopping these little metal hawks, I sort of know hotkeys by the way will never ever have a level |
299 | 00:51:45,810 --> 00:51:53,820 | identified on the chart. If I say Mohawk annually typing out in advance, so that we can anticipate this is going to just do this. And we expect that that's |
300 | 00:51:53,820 --> 00:52:01,020 | reasonable, okay, there's gonna be some measure of coloring outside the lines that you're going to have to be comfortable with when you're trading. And I have |
301 | 00:52:01,020 --> 00:52:08,700 | ways of determining where that's likely to occur. My students are learning that and you're learning it now to the bodies are saying that, okay, we're not done, |
302 | 00:52:08,700 --> 00:52:16,170 | it's going to reach higher. Why? Because the standard deviation of 4496 and a half was just simply confirmed one more time with the bodies, that means it's |
303 | 00:52:16,170 --> 00:52:27,990 | going to go higher. So we would still use this high to that low once what happens a to be one at this one. This was the same one is this look that low |
304 | 00:52:28,740 --> 00:52:45,120 | 44 91.25. You're looking right up here. That lows 44 91.25. It's the same low I'm showing you here for 44 91.25. But what I'm doing is I'm ignoring this high |
305 | 00:52:45,120 --> 00:52:52,110 | here because it's unfinished. It's going to run higher, it's either gonna go to the weekly want to bounce or one that the high. I don't need to know what that |
306 | 00:52:52,110 --> 00:53:06,090 | is yet because the ADB leg is already there. This one didn't go lower. But now watch what happens. How low can it retrace with TGIF? Two standard deviations. |
307 | 00:53:08,340 --> 00:53:23,130 | Inside this inefficiency inside of the breaker here is drop your jaw. Sorry, folks down menu mentors trying to teach my stuff. They'll have the authority to |
308 | 00:53:23,130 --> 00:53:38,550 | do this. You have the range in which the breaker can pull back into the low when this candle comes in exactly at 44. Eight 0.75. Standard deviation comes in at |
309 | 00:53:38,550 --> 00:53:51,210 | 44 Eight 0.75. Folks, that's perfect. That's not Wycoff that's not so find a man. That's not any other thing out there. This is mine. Okay, this is mine. |
310 | 00:53:53,430 --> 00:54:02,190 | You're listening to the guy who codified it. I am the person. I'm the engineer. I'm the guy that put this together. This is right there you're seeing it. You're |
311 | 00:54:02,250 --> 00:54:10,080 | gonna find you're finding it in books, okay, I'm writing. All the books is ever gonna be made around this right now by teaching it. They're all gonna pair it |
312 | 00:54:10,080 --> 00:54:23,940 | what you're hearing. But that's precision. You are not learning that from anyone else that look at the date. July 2 2023, everything changes with breakers after |
313 | 00:54:23,940 --> 00:54:32,190 | today. You don't know it yet. So don't go out there and start making videos with it. Okay, you're welcome to start making videos where you observe this |
314 | 00:54:32,340 --> 00:54:40,500 | phenomenon. That's, that's wonderful, because that'll not only build your confidence and share it with your community, and you're part of my community, |
315 | 00:54:40,500 --> 00:54:50,730 | whether you like it or not, and that is helpful for you to teach yourself to see it, observe it, but you're blending so many things. So many things come |
316 | 00:54:50,730 --> 00:54:57,660 | together. Let's go down to a one minute chart. Okay, we're looking at a one minute chart |
317 | 00:55:04,110 --> 00:55:15,720 | Okay, so now we can see how we're utilizing the upper portion of the breaker here, one minute chart, zero in on the change in the state delivery, that last |
318 | 00:55:15,720 --> 00:55:27,630 | candle right there. Inside that last candle, I can be a buyer anywhere in here, I can use that order block, let me change this, you see, see this down closed |
319 | 00:55:27,630 --> 00:55:36,060 | candle right there, it's inside of this breaker. It's the last closed candle warmer, new lowest timeframe. So you want to strip it down into the range. |
320 | 00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:45,450 | Remember, we showed this entire run here on the five minute chart. But for fine tuning your entry, it's the last up close candle prior to the lower run to |
321 | 00:55:45,450 --> 00:55:57,180 | there. When it's trading in that range, if I have something else inside this little pocket of price action, let me show you what I mean by that. Zoom in |
322 | 00:55:57,180 --> 00:56:15,930 | here. masterclass the ice breaker if we look at the high and the low, if we measure that range, okay, and there's gradients to that upper quarter 50% or |
323 | 00:56:15,960 --> 00:56:25,950 | mean threshold because it's an order block theory breakers or order blocks. And then the low and the lower quarter, okay, midpoint or mean threshold is |
324 | 00:56:25,980 --> 00:56:38,910 | 44 84.50. Now, if the algorithm is going to allow price to be utilized there to go long, but for smart money for people that see price like this, what price |
325 | 00:56:38,910 --> 00:56:54,570 | does this market need to price to the get 44 84.50? It needs to at least print 44, eight 4.25. Inside of this consolidation, it rallies above it and drops back |
326 | 00:56:54,570 --> 00:57:06,390 | down. What's the low of that candle right there? 44, eight 4.25 that allows the spread to not be a hindrance for smartly to go long there. Even if you don't |
327 | 00:57:06,390 --> 00:57:13,830 | take that as a trait, does the market show a willingness to want to move away from that? Yes, that's a signature. And watching that and seeing price do that. |
328 | 00:57:14,070 --> 00:57:20,700 | I want to see these types of things come into the marketplace to support the idea that we're going to continuously grind towards that Beisa liquidity and |
329 | 00:57:20,700 --> 00:57:33,360 | maybe reach up into that weekly volume amounts. All of these things lead to a better understanding of where price is going to go. And it's important for you |
330 | 00:57:33,360 --> 00:57:43,680 | to also know that once we're inside orderflow We have inefficiencies. We've seen the long here. And then we're seeing an inefficiency here but we're bullish. So |
331 | 00:57:43,680 --> 00:57:51,930 | we're not looking at this as the trade off in the here. And in sell off. I've seen so many people tweeting things, and other folks that are in other |
332 | 00:57:51,930 --> 00:57:59,160 | mentorships. And guys and gals out there trying to put people in shorts like this. They say, Oh, it's an inefficiency or it's good short, and then they have |
333 | 00:57:59,160 --> 00:58:10,980 | their faces ripped off. What I'm teaching you is how to identify, reorder flow. Understand how are the reprice where it's repricing to, and I'm giving you a |
334 | 00:58:10,980 --> 00:58:29,370 | level of precision that is on arrival. Look closely. You see this? Low? High, lower low. Remember, I'm long in here I'm buying all that. All this in here. I'm |
335 | 00:58:29,370 --> 00:58:42,450 | buying all that stuff right here. I'm buying it they're buying there and buying it there. What am I utilizing? Look at those levels. Look at them. What am I |
336 | 00:58:42,450 --> 00:58:53,610 | buying consequent coachmen of that five minute affair Vega, what's defined by this level in that level, then I'm buying what consequence of the inversion per |
337 | 00:58:53,610 --> 00:59:07,050 | Vega, which is this level here, I expect this to be support and find a point of accumulation to send a higher to attack by South Korea and drop into the high on |
338 | 00:59:07,560 --> 00:59:18,090 | the 16th of June 2023. So I'm using these reference points, like rungs on the ladder, okay, or think of it like a mountain climber. Okay, I would never call |
339 | 00:59:18,090 --> 00:59:29,070 | them he'll never do that. But when climbers are climbing, they're looking for the next anchor point for to anchor the rope or if they're free climber and |
340 | 00:59:29,070 --> 00:59:36,690 | they're not using any ropes, which is absolutely madness. They're planning their next grab point. Okay, where are they going to reach and grab hold on to that |
341 | 00:59:36,690 --> 00:59:45,540 | rock face and pull themselves up higher? Well, I'm looking for all these areas as price presents them. So when price was down here, that fair value gap was |
342 | 00:59:45,540 --> 00:59:52,440 | already there. So I'm accumulating long positions here right in the middle of it. What's consequent on the five minute fairway gate, which is these two blue |
343 | 00:59:52,440 --> 01:00:01,290 | lines? That gap was already there on the limited chart. I want to see it trade up there. Look at the body, respecting it. See it It's staying inside that that |
344 | 01:00:01,290 --> 01:00:12,330 | gap, then it comes back down. I'm buying it and it's the midpoint of it right there is that little, little pathway point right there? I'm sorry, right there, |
345 | 01:00:12,360 --> 01:00:22,140 | I'm buying it there. And then I'm buying the low end range of it. There. So I'm accumulating in pyramiding. With logic are not just you willy nilly throwing |
346 | 01:00:22,140 --> 01:00:31,590 | darts and throw mud at the wall and see what sticks and come back, say haha, because no, none of this is cherry pick, this is absolutely engineered. But now |
347 | 01:00:31,590 --> 01:00:41,400 | because we can see this low, high, lower low. What else is occurring here? That's a breaker. That's a breaker on utilizing that all that framework, I'm |
348 | 01:00:41,400 --> 01:00:51,360 | going inside this price leg with the support of this idea as a breaker. Because this is a to be in this all distortion and manipulation. I'm using that as the |
349 | 01:00:51,360 --> 01:00:59,280 | entry point. But I'm going back into this little short term price leg right here. No way I see you're going to tell him yet. I'm telling you, I'm going to |
350 | 01:00:59,280 --> 01:01:14,880 | prove it to you too. Low, the high. Okay, now watch. All this is occurring, by the way, in the 1150 to 1210 macro, okay, it's a specific sweet period of time, |
351 | 01:01:15,480 --> 01:01:23,460 | where the algorithm will start spoiling reaching for liquidity. You have to understand there too, okay? Don't listen to these guys out there that have 1150 |
352 | 01:01:23,460 --> 01:01:34,980 | or 1210. Or maybe my 1050 to 1110 macro times, and they're trying to show you that they're doing something none of you none. Looks, listen, none of you know |
353 | 01:01:34,980 --> 01:01:42,960 | what you're talking about. If you're talking about macros, you have no idea what you're doing. Stop spreading this information, okay? I'm not trying to be mean |
354 | 01:01:42,960 --> 01:01:53,100 | to you. I'm not trying to be rude, okay, but you literally don't know what you're talking about. But this leg here as the A to be on that breaker. If we |
355 | 01:01:53,100 --> 01:02:10,110 | take that. And we know that that buyside liquidity is on June 16 2023. Hi, the daily candle. It's drawing up into that and maybe even as much as the weekly |
356 | 01:02:10,110 --> 01:02:17,610 | volume and bounce. So we have this range right here. That what I'm dealing in other charts that you don't see me doing, there's another one for a long time, I |
357 | 01:02:17,610 --> 01:02:25,170 | didn't want to share this information. Okay, number one, I'm not obligated to teach it to you. And my charter members that paid me they're learning this tool |
358 | 01:02:25,170 --> 01:02:32,370 | for the first time. So you're right in here with mentorship. This is mentorship, I'm not doing paid mentorship, there's not going to be an upsell later on, come |
359 | 01:02:32,370 --> 01:02:42,750 | and join my club, okay. I don't want to do that anymore. I want you to do it correctly. And I don't want people that are out there. rebranding my stuff, |
360 | 01:02:43,320 --> 01:02:51,660 | teaching incorrectly. If anything is taught outside of what I'm teaching you here, they have no idea what I'm talking about. But now we have three standard |
361 | 01:02:51,660 --> 01:03:05,520 | deviations, four standard deviations, five standard deviations, six, seven and a half. Were to seven and a half. Now, if I show you six and a half, that's right |
362 | 01:03:05,520 --> 01:03:17,760 | at that old high see that 44, nine 3.75. That right there tells me that that will definitely reach for that liquidity. Remember, 44 93.75 is the high of June |
363 | 01:03:17,760 --> 01:03:27,660 | 16 2003. What I'm doing is I'm showing you how to take the levels here for standard deviation. And when they agree with a range of liquidity. What I mean |
364 | 01:03:27,660 --> 01:03:41,910 | by that, let's take this off. If we look at how the negative 6.5 standard deviation comes in at the daily high, June 16, I know some of you already like |
365 | 01:03:41,910 --> 01:03:50,550 | managers complicated I understand everything's complicated. You first started when you're in kindergarten, you didn't have to write in the first few letters |
366 | 01:03:50,550 --> 01:03:57,660 | in the alphabet was too complicated for you then, okay, and that's all this is you're just learning a language. Okay. But what I'm teaching you is we have an |
367 | 01:03:57,660 --> 01:04:09,570 | expectation that the market will reach up into the liquidity above this high at 44 93.75. All right, so I tweeted a couple minutes after nine o'clock on Friday, |
368 | 01:04:10,590 --> 01:04:20,790 | to this range up here, which is the weekly going to bounce so in that range right there. Okay, if we take that range, and use all the breakers for any |
369 | 01:04:20,790 --> 01:04:34,290 | standard deviation, idea or approach to look for targeting, you want to see a confluence of levels anywhere in that range. So if we anticipate 44 96.50 which |
370 | 01:04:34,290 --> 01:04:46,260 | is based on the A to B price leg, here to here, that's where we got that from. So we have that level then we have 44 95.75 And then one new qualifying and |
371 | 01:04:46,260 --> 01:04:58,440 | confirming that the high on the 16th of June 2023. That is in fact, going to be reached for how far above that level? Well, 44 95.75 is a good level and 4496 |
372 | 01:04:58,440 --> 01:05:03,450 | and a half is a good level. So any one of those two price levels is a good price point to exit |
373 | 01:05:06,719 --> 01:05:17,879 | 44, nine 5.25, you have to factor in the spread. So I get myself anywhere between one and a half handles to a half of handle. And if I'm really trying to |
374 | 01:05:17,879 --> 01:05:26,759 | show off, I'll do one quarter of a point and try to you know, let the spread do that. But all those levels were based in framed with all this information here. |
375 | 01:05:26,939 --> 01:05:34,769 | Even though when I'm recording, you'll see the link in the comment section or the description of this video below. You'll see me actually do this trade and |
376 | 01:05:34,769 --> 01:05:49,469 | manage it throughout the whole process. But I'm utilizing a lot of things that you don't understand these levels are dynamic. And it's going to pull price to |
377 | 01:05:49,469 --> 01:06:03,029 | them. All the calculations that go behind how these algorithms price, either commodities, index, futures, forex, all of them are using the information I'm |
378 | 01:06:03,029 --> 01:06:11,039 | showing you here. This is not a harmonic pattern. It's not some kind of Wycoff stuff. It's not supply and demand. It's not Elliott Wave. It's none of that |
379 | 01:06:11,039 --> 01:06:22,139 | stuff. It's understanding time first, what time of day, is this occurring? The beginning of the lunch hour in New York, the algorithm will reprice against |
380 | 01:06:22,229 --> 01:06:31,949 | existing liquidity, what did the morning session see? Lower prices. So it's going to roll back on what the stats the rest of the above these relative equal |
381 | 01:06:31,949 --> 01:06:40,829 | highs? That's why you see me entering a exit of majority of the trade being taken out there. Why did I take the majority the trade off there? If you think |
382 | 01:06:40,829 --> 01:06:47,429 | it's gonna go up here ICT? Why do you take the majority because it's Friday, and I might be wrong. This is a higher timeframe target that weekly volume |
383 | 01:06:47,429 --> 01:06:57,479 | imbalance. So it doesn't have to deliver that on Friday. But I felt very strongly that that June 16, time would be delivered. But in the event that I'm |
384 | 01:06:57,479 --> 01:07:07,349 | not correct about that, I got the lion's portion of the move off at a logical place, because I'm teaching you to do that very thing. Now I could have simply |
385 | 01:07:07,619 --> 01:07:15,779 | took a small portion off here in the larger portion off right here. And then 15 contracts gonna came off there. And then my final right there. And then |
386 | 01:07:15,779 --> 01:07:23,579 | eventually, my single contract got stopped out there. And I tweeted, where I had my stock and where my target was, which was the weekly going down just below. |
387 | 01:07:24,719 --> 01:07:33,659 | But all that is in the trade, execution. All the details are here. This is not Market Replay. There's not Market Replay reports where it's fake. Okay, we're |
388 | 01:07:33,659 --> 01:07:45,149 | not using NinjaTrader, where we can pretend the show profitability. This is actual real market executions. These are real time. Applications. I mean, you |
389 | 01:07:45,149 --> 01:07:59,099 | don't see a replay up here. It's real executions. So all this stuff is helpful over time. When you're utilizing everything that I've taught, you're going to |
390 | 01:07:59,099 --> 01:08:09,359 | have to eventually get to the point where you refrain from trying to get the simple rate right away, figure it out and get or start making money because it |
391 | 01:08:09,359 --> 01:08:19,169 | doesn't work that way. Folks, it does, I promise you it does not work that way. But if you want unbelievable levels of precision, I'm teaching it to you. But |
392 | 01:08:19,169 --> 01:08:26,069 | it's going to take you some time to get there. But you don't need to have this level of precision. All you need is a simple bread and butter setup. I taught |
393 | 01:08:26,069 --> 01:08:34,679 | you that tonight using a breaker. You don't need to have the break and retest. I taught you that I told you how to buy and sell inside of the breaker before it |
394 | 01:08:34,709 --> 01:08:48,449 | even goes above its trigger point that I've already introduced initially when I taught breakers. So I'll have much more to teach you with each one of these PD |
395 | 01:08:48,449 --> 01:08:54,869 | arrays. But for now, this should suffice and to talk to you next time, be safe |