ICT YT - 2023-06-27 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Opening Range Gap Repricing Macro
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-06-30 08:34
Outline
00:00 - Introduction to the chart.
- Welcome back to the show.
- Weekly candlestick chart of the market review.
02:32 - The hourly chart of today’s delivery.
- Hourly chart with today's mark to market delivery.
- Weekly fair value price gap.
04:32 - How to look for liquidity.
- New york opening times and trading strategy.
- How to find setups in perpetuity.
07:01 - A judas swing is a false run.
- Judas swing, a false run that gets people offside.
- London session liquidity and the low.
09:32 - Understanding the opening range gap.
- The opening range gap.
- Closing price on friday vs opening price on monday.
10:53 - The opening range gap premium.
- Opening range gap premium vs discount opening range gap.
- One-minute chart.
12:12 - Understanding the fair value gap.
- Running out above the buy-sell liquidity in the london session.
- Two gaps in the price.
14:49 - Taking the low to the high.
- The algorithm repricing back down into the opening range gap.
- The one minute chart zoomed in.
17:45 - How to take advantage of this rally?
- Get short or sell a long position.
- Two forms of liquidity, London and New York.
19:44 - Lack of liquidity during the lunch hour.
- New york lunch-time liquidity and the highs.
- One trade setup for life.
- How to pick the right liquidity, bias and know where the markets are going.
- How to get paid.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:23,580 | ICT: Hey folks, welcome back, we're trying to get through this pretty quickly, we're presently having a thunderstorm. And don't have this run too much. During |
| 2 | 00:00:23,580 --> 00:00:34,410 | that in case we have a search. So I'm going to counsel you to go and look at last Friday, which is June 23 2020, threes, Mark review. And the things that I'm |
| 3 | 00:00:34,410 --> 00:00:45,270 | going to talk about here, were forecast and before we actually see the chart, this is a weekly candlestick chart, you can see we did fill in all of this, if |
| 4 | 00:00:45,270 --> 00:00:57,870 | your Vega, which is a sell side, unbalanced by sudden efficiency with this overshoot with this wick, and the buyside here, so we worked above that I |
| 5 | 00:00:57,870 --> 00:01:09,120 | mentioned on Twitter and Mark review that is likely to be able to draw on to four Es. So this presentation is really going to focus primarily on es, you're |
| 6 | 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:22,380 | welcome to look at the link in the description, where you watch me trade, live both ES and NASDAQ this morning. So that weekly fair value gap in the form of |
| 7 | 00:01:22,380 --> 00:01:35,010 | bison analysis and efficiency, we're zoomed in here on a daily chart, and on the 23rd. As you can see here, zoom in is a tweet I shared at nine o'clock in New |
| 8 | 00:01:35,010 --> 00:01:45,750 | York local time, on Friday, June 23 2023. I don't delete any tweet. And if I make a mistake by a typo, I'll usually correct it. I don't delete or edit |
| 9 | 00:01:45,750 --> 00:01:57,750 | anything. So I'm not a blue check member on Twitter rockin at anything, everything is exactly as it is the first time I put it up. So the tweet says |
| 10 | 00:01:57,780 --> 00:02:06,810 | very plainly, I prefer the lower meaning that because there's two fair value gaps on es I prefer the lower. And that would be seen also in the NASDAQ with |
| 11 | 00:02:06,810 --> 00:02:21,840 | the chart on the right hand side, you'll see your chart, post both of those being filled in today. In the market review on Friday, June 23 2023. This is the |
| 12 | 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:32,610 | slide I showed for ES and the little eyeball icon I typically like to use when I'm using static charts, this is where we're going to drill down into. And that |
| 13 | 00:02:32,610 --> 00:02:45,600 | takes us into around 4369 ish 4370 We'll just call it that. And here is the hourly chart with today's mark to market price delivery. So you can see we did |
| 14 | 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:58,140 | in fact trade down into it perfectly. Alright, here's the 50 minute time frame. So we're gonna get down into the nitty gritty, if you will. We have a very huge |
| 15 | 00:02:58,140 --> 00:03:07,800 | gap in the form of a sell side and balance by side and efficiency with only this little area remaining. So when the market trended up to this point here, it |
| 16 | 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:17,070 | didn't completely go back up to that point there. Here that it should be able to hear that that's that's lightning and thunder going off up here. So because it |
| 17 | 00:03:17,070 --> 00:03:29,670 | didn't completely reprice that this is the exposed area of inefficiency was it inefficient, but buyside delivery because it's a SEBI sellside imbalance by |
| 18 | 00:03:29,670 --> 00:03:41,190 | inefficiencies. That means the market will want to likely draw back up in there with delivery to the buy side that means up word motion, and by liquidity or by |
| 19 | 00:03:41,190 --> 00:03:52,230 | stops, we'll be resting just above this. I'm showing you the new week opening gap high and low here. And here is that weekly, fair value got the high of it in |
| 20 | 00:03:52,230 --> 00:04:05,310 | the low of it. can see that we ran up initially to take the buy side, make an attempt to completely reprice to the Sydney high. So all of this movement here |
| 21 | 00:04:05,340 --> 00:04:15,420 | was a sucker's play, retail traders that bought all this unless they were nimble and got out. They got caught off guard and offside. And then the market |
| 22 | 00:04:15,420 --> 00:04:28,650 | repriced, down to where I told you last Friday, we would see a trend to notice the use of the newest opening gap here in here. Alright, moving down to a five |
| 23 | 00:04:28,650 --> 00:04:38,970 | minute chart. Here's the brass tacks of today's delivery. New York opening midnight price. That is this candles opening price that's extended throughout |
| 24 | 00:04:38,970 --> 00:04:53,580 | the day, all the way to 11am. That's the rules I give. In here you see the delivery of price. The market rallies at 930 trades up to the buyside liquidity |
| 25 | 00:04:53,580 --> 00:05:01,140 | pool that I showed you on the 15 minute time frame inside that 15 minute fair value gap Sibi let me take you back up once line, just make sure you know what |
| 26 | 00:05:01,140 --> 00:05:13,230 | I'm looking at this area over here in this high, that's that line here in that shaded area. So we're zooming in on a five minute chart inside this price action |
| 27 | 00:05:13,230 --> 00:05:27,720 | right here. Okay? That's this on a five minute chart. I'm ringing in the New York opening price. So the algorithm is going to reprice to a premium to some |
| 28 | 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:39,690 | random level now, to reprice up to an old inefficiency. And the best shorts are what what does my lectures tell you? Above the opening price at midnight, New |
| 29 | 00:05:39,690 --> 00:05:51,660 | York local time, the market rallies up multiple times. Then, we also have what is this over here? The bias of the quarter? Why am I picking these highs? Here? |
| 30 | 00:05:51,780 --> 00:05:59,070 | The question always comes up, I see Why are you picking that high for your bison liquidity pool? Why not this Can I want at that high? Because I just taught you |
| 31 | 00:05:59,850 --> 00:06:08,880 | with the lecture from last week, one setup for life. What I did in that lecture was to teach you how to find a setup that will serve you for the rest of your |
| 32 | 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:18,720 | life. And I teach you how to look for liquidity. What specific liquidity am I referring to which 1am I aiming for all the time which 1am I utilizing if I'm |
| 33 | 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:30,930 | entering at that liquidity, that lecture is not a specific entry pattern. It's how to find setups in perpetuity. That means you're you'll never run out of |
| 34 | 00:06:30,990 --> 00:06:40,650 | setups and all you'll need to do is pick one of them. And if your setup forms around that basis, that means what liquidity is going to be drawn to Well, think |
| 35 | 00:06:40,650 --> 00:06:47,520 | about what I told you last Friday at nine o'clock in the morning in New York local time before the market even opened up last Friday, I told you that we will |
| 36 | 00:06:47,520 --> 00:07:00,510 | be trading there at 4370 or just below 4369 ish gave up to make it easy all around it to 4370. You knew that at nine o'clock in the morning. If you follow |
| 37 | 00:07:00,510 --> 00:07:13,350 | me on Twitter. This is where the algorithm was going to price. Yes. Nothing edited, nothing deleted and nothing incorrect. All of this run here is a Judas |
| 38 | 00:07:13,350 --> 00:07:25,500 | swing a Judas swing is what I've dubbed a false run. That gets people to chase it they get offside it goes to a very specific price pdra The element is what |
| 39 | 00:07:26,370 --> 00:07:36,330 | we're going to enter a sell program is going to go to a very specific price level not a supply and demand zone. Not a harmonic pattern. Not Elliott Wave and |
| 40 | 00:07:36,330 --> 00:07:47,550 | Wycoff is asleep in this this level right down here is exactly where your attention was called to last Friday. The weekend happened we can't do anything |
| 41 | 00:07:47,550 --> 00:08:02,760 | on Saturday Sunday we opened up created the new week opening gap market rallies through it to this very specific levels I'm showing you here running out by side |
| 42 | 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:19,890 | here what kind of by side is that? What is these highs anchor to london session liquidity then we have the low of the London session what is that that's the |
| 43 | 00:08:19,890 --> 00:08:32,010 | london session sell side liquidity so notice how the market open at 930 rallies up sucks everybody in thinking it's going to go higher goes into a level I'm |
| 44 | 00:08:32,010 --> 00:08:40,560 | teaching you runs about the near midnight opening price is exactly where the highest probability shorts are going to form. If you're bearish the best short |
| 45 | 00:08:40,560 --> 00:08:52,980 | entries are going to occur at the price not the time the price of new your opening price what time what is the Judas swing gonna form at 930 to 10 o'clock |
| 46 | 00:08:53,130 --> 00:09:08,700 | that is your opening range so we're expecting this rally higher to be opposed to the direction we're expecting last Friday down there so retail sees all this and |
| 47 | 00:09:08,700 --> 00:09:24,270 | thinks Wow We're gonna man it's really going up Yeah, it's going up for smart money to go short counterparty london session liquidity aiming for more than |
| 48 | 00:09:24,270 --> 00:09:36,060 | session liquidity utilizing what what are we what are we using here? I'm going to teach you something in addition to everything else you've already learned so |
| 49 | 00:09:36,060 --> 00:09:49,080 | far. This is the opening range gap. Okay, and what you're looking at is this candle here is Friday's data. You're going to be showing this on your trading |
| 50 | 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:58,830 | view chart with down here in the lower right hand corner. Regular trading hours needs to be toggled, not electronic trading. So regular trading hours on a one |
| 51 | 00:09:58,830 --> 00:10:11,790 | minute chart on the Friday, you're going to hover over the last candle on Friday. And it's going to show for 14 PM. This price here, the close is what's |
| 52 | 00:10:11,790 --> 00:10:12,930 | being shown for that candle right |
| 53 | 00:10:12,930 --> 00:10:27,390 | there. So at 4:14pm, Friday, June 23 2023, the closing price is 4388. Even. That's what I'm highlighting the closing price, then you're going to wait until |
| 54 | 00:10:27,390 --> 00:10:40,410 | 930 In the morning, New York local time when the market starts trading regular trading hours for Monday, that opening price here is at 9:30am. Monday, June |
| 55 | 00:10:40,410 --> 00:10:49,950 | 26 2023. So I'm highlighting the opening price. So the difference between the closing price on Friday and the opening price on the next trading day or Monday, |
| 56 | 00:10:50,940 --> 00:11:00,390 | that is the opening range gap. This happens to be the opening range gapped lower. Because we opened lower than where we closed on Friday. If we were open |
| 57 | 00:11:00,390 --> 00:11:09,540 | higher than where we closed on Friday, it would have been opening range gap higher. Whenever the opening range gap lower than Friday's close, we are opening |
| 58 | 00:11:09,540 --> 00:11:21,720 | with a discount opening range gap. If we are opening with a gap that's above Friday's close, we're opening with an opening range gap premium. Okay, so this |
| 59 | 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:29,310 | two specific levels and the one that makes the middle or consequent encouragement any gap is always going to be utilizing the midpoint is consequent |
| 60 | 00:11:29,310 --> 00:11:39,330 | encouragement. Any order block, whether it be a breaker block, whether it be a bullish or bearish order block propulsion block, every middle point or midpoint |
| 61 | 00:11:39,330 --> 00:11:53,130 | of it is mean threshold. There's two different viewpoint of a midpoint. So a gap or wick the midpoint of that range would be consequent encouragement, any other |
| 62 | 00:11:53,130 --> 00:12:02,160 | order block is going to be mean threshold which is 50% of that range. So now that we have the opening range gap defined, let's take that information and |
| 63 | 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:13,260 | apply it to the one minute chart. Again, here's es one minute chart, September 2023 delivery, we can see that rally here at 930. All of this is due to swing, |
| 64 | 00:12:13,500 --> 00:12:26,010 | running out above the Buy Sell liquidity in the London session, you'd see this with the electronic trading hours down here. So the market rallies up into that |
| 65 | 00:12:28,890 --> 00:12:37,680 | premium fair value gap in the form of acidity and that buyside liquidity here, you're gonna need to watch this video a few times so that we don't lose yourself |
| 66 | 00:12:38,220 --> 00:12:50,760 | in the different timeframes. And we're trading above the New York midnight opening price, which is this level right here. We have a more definitive drop |
| 67 | 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:59,910 | here, where we've taken out this low in this low, and we have a fair value got right there. You could have used this one to enter, but you would have to use a |
| 68 | 00:12:59,910 --> 00:13:08,940 | stop that factored in this fair value gap. So that means you'd have to have a stock loss above that short term high. I didn't like that, I had to wait for |
| 69 | 00:13:08,940 --> 00:13:20,520 | that. Price ran up to it once more, and then broke. Now because we had a shift in market structure here below that low, we could have used that low. There's |
| 70 | 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:29,340 | nothing wrong with that. But that high wasn't pierced by this high. And the only thing I was doing was running one more time above the New York midnight opening |
| 71 | 00:13:29,340 --> 00:13:40,470 | price and back inside that Fair Pay Gap city. So as one more time running into a premium, then we broke down. And we had two gaps here. This one that shaded in |
| 72 | 00:13:40,470 --> 00:13:49,410 | yellow. And this one here. If you watch the recording in the length that I share in the description, this video, you're gonna see that there is a measurement |
| 73 | 00:13:49,410 --> 00:13:57,780 | that I'm running from this candles low to this candles high and I'm finding half of that, or 50% of it. So consequent approachment, I placed my stop loss just |
| 74 | 00:13:57,780 --> 00:14:06,360 | above that. Why did I do that? Because we've already proven algorithmically that we're not going higher. So just drop down even though it didn't take up that |
| 75 | 00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:20,700 | low. I have to use the two rule. When there's two gaps, you have to factor in the higher gap. So how far was I willing to be traded in terms of drawdown and |
| 76 | 00:14:20,910 --> 00:14:31,350 | place my stop loss without having the full risk of that open gap? The difference between this high and low that higher fair value gap. So consequent crusheret, |
| 77 | 00:14:31,350 --> 00:14:38,250 | my stop losses was about that you'll see it in execution. Okay, I promise you you'll see it. But I want to make sure I'm making a special note of that. And |
| 78 | 00:14:38,250 --> 00:14:48,240 | that's why I'm doing it. So the shift in market structure then even though it didn't take this low out, it didn't need to, for me to enter and I'm entering |
| 79 | 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:57,990 | inside this. So I'm going to anticipate the algorithm repricing back down into the opening range gap. So this is a repricing macro. All of this is a Judas |
| 80 | 00:14:57,990 --> 00:15:06,330 | swing. And I had things to say occur outside the house, so I wasn't able to manage it or do anything else in addition to. So I just use the simple Silver |
| 81 | 00:15:06,330 --> 00:15:18,390 | Bullet rules that I taught you, which would be take the low to the high, find equilibrium, what PDA would be a discount array, below 50%, or below this level |
| 82 | 00:15:18,390 --> 00:15:30,690 | here, there is a gap here. So I was looking for it to trade towards the opening range gap, entry into a discount, and I just used a imbalance there and worked |
| 83 | 00:15:30,690 --> 00:15:46,980 | below the new week opening that low. And you'll see that is the case here with executions for 387, three quarters 4387, even shorting at six contracts at 4395 |
| 84 | 00:15:46,980 --> 00:16:00,960 | and a half and 4394 and a half inside of this idea of premium running to discount. Now, if it would have been a day traded, I could have been managing, I |
| 85 | 00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:12,840 | would have taken additional entries, which is what you watch me highlight in the review video where I'm showing this fair value gap here and actually put a limit |
| 86 | 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:22,320 | order there. So that was a mental marker for you to know that I'm referring to that, as its number one, it's an additional entry that you could have used or a |
| 87 | 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:32,070 | pyramid and an aiming for this lower end target at 4370. But I couldn't stay with it today I had other things to do outside the house in my wife wasn't going |
| 88 | 00:16:32,070 --> 00:16:45,840 | to permit me to be looking at the charts that just to tell you another instance of I told you so. So here is the one minute chart zoomed in here. The opening |
| 89 | 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:54,870 | range gap, the Judas swing up, we have buyside liquidity. This is Friday's New York session liquidity, this is another factor. And the reason why I wanted to |
| 90 | 00:16:54,870 --> 00:17:07,020 | wait. And I didn't take this one here. But I said liquidity rallied shorted, here would have been fine. If you had a stop here, we're dropping to fair value |
| 91 | 00:17:07,020 --> 00:17:16,740 | gaps here. And here, I'm going to try to enter this one and only use 50% of this fair value gaps range and the stock will have to be above that, that's what you |
| 92 | 00:17:16,740 --> 00:17:27,150 | see me do in the execution. It drops down goes back up into a fair value gap versus a Sydney sales on unbalanced price and efficiency, it trades up into at |
| 93 | 00:17:27,150 --> 00:17:35,460 | once more. And if that limit order would have been needed staying in the market, I mean, not taking the limit exits here, that would have been an additional |
| 94 | 00:17:35,610 --> 00:17:45,390 | pyramid entry. And I would have had to hold on to the entirety of the lunch session and anticipate a run back into new week opening gap which we see here. |
| 95 | 00:17:45,390 --> 00:18:00,570 | Perfect constant encouragement. All of this run up here is due to swing. Now you can and you could have taken some of this move here. And it's fine. If you were |
| 96 | 00:18:00,780 --> 00:18:10,590 | looking for these ideas to get short, or sell your long position. Both instances are correct. But because I told you last week on Friday at nine o'clock in the |
| 97 | 00:18:10,590 --> 00:18:24,390 | morning, New York time that we will be trading 243 70 on Yes. I'm looking for shorts. So the ideal scenario would be I want to see it run what liquidity, we |
| 98 | 00:18:24,390 --> 00:18:37,020 | had two forms of liquidity. We had the london session by side and we have Friday's New York session by side, both go back to this presentation. Again, go |
| 99 | 00:18:37,020 --> 00:18:47,820 | into your own charts, annotate them, just like I'm showing you here. And you'll see all of these things are exactly why I was taking the trade. Fair you got |
| 100 | 00:18:48,420 --> 00:19:01,710 | using just the silver bullet mentality back inside of the opening range gap. But more specifically, using a run below the new week opening gap law. And I don't |
| 101 | 00:19:01,710 --> 00:19:09,870 | need to be all the way down here to make what will be equivalent to if both trades were taken by you. But the ES and the Nasdaq trades as you watch me, so I |
| 102 | 00:19:09,870 --> 00:19:21,360 | did dual dealings, that means I'm doing both indices, I traded short one NASDAQ and I traded short one es if you were taking the same trades, your funded |
| 103 | 00:19:21,360 --> 00:19:36,660 | account or your Live account would have gone up $16,000 To would have the full run also. Now I taught you in that one set up for life. I teach you liquidity if |
| 104 | 00:19:36,660 --> 00:19:51,000 | I'm bearish and notice that we did not get down to that 4370 level did it get to the 4370 level yet? No. What do we have here? What's this? The opposite of this? |
| 105 | 00:19:51,450 --> 00:19:57,480 | So if this is New York lunch buyside liquidity and what's the highs Where's liquidity at? |
| 106 | 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:09,990 | During the lunch hour? Well, here's noon. We're here. So we have a high here. We have hot here. And we have the opening range gap, what's that shaded area? So it |
| 107 | 00:20:09,990 --> 00:20:20,820 | makes perfect sense for it to do what reach up into half of that yellow shade. Very right. So that's reasonable. Why would it be possibly advantageous to see |
| 108 | 00:20:20,820 --> 00:20:34,800 | price data who would be better equipped to make a trade with that idea? Everyone that knew that price is likely to go down to 4370. On Friday of last week, |
| 109 | 00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:47,880 | shorts, so smart money can wait for the algorithm to reprice back up into half of the shaded area or just above these relatively equal highs. So the algorithm |
| 110 | 00:20:47,910 --> 00:21:05,880 | runs quickly to get to that level, and then it spends time here until we get to what the 315 the 345 market unclose algorithm 315, the 345 boom, it runs to what |
| 111 | 00:21:06,180 --> 00:21:18,210 | the target I told you would trade to on Friday at nine o'clock in the morning. Attacking the opposing side, sell side liquidity of the lunch hour, go back and |
| 112 | 00:21:18,210 --> 00:21:28,560 | watch the one trade setup for life. I promise you if you listen to what I'm teaching you there, this is exactly what I have been doing for years, every |
| 113 | 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:38,550 | single time I take a trade every single time I've ever shown you an execution. I've used the logic in that teaching. So many people over the years have asked |
| 114 | 00:21:38,550 --> 00:21:46,050 | me teach me liquidity teach me how to pick the right liquidity, teach me bias teach me how to know where the markets gonna go next. Because if I could just |
| 115 | 00:21:46,050 --> 00:21:55,200 | learn that I would know. There's other things you have to learn. But that's the lesson that you're looking for. That's the one because if you understand what |
| 116 | 00:21:55,200 --> 00:22:04,920 | I'm teaching you there, you will never run out of setups, you will never run out of ways to flabbergast those individuals that you share your results with, you |
| 117 | 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:12,630 | will never run out of opportunities to pass on that accounts, you will never run out of opportunities to get paid in a live account. You will never run into |
| 118 | 00:22:12,630 --> 00:22:24,480 | situations where you can go into any market any asset class, any timeframe and literally destroy it. But I don't want you to take my word for it. I want you go |
| 119 | 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:25,290 | in and study it |
| 120 | 00:22:31,740 --> 00:22:40,110 | totally if you enjoyed this video, give me a thumbs up I appreciate that it always encourages me doesn't cost you anything to do it. Additionally, click the |
| 121 | 00:22:40,110 --> 00:22:48,450 | link in the description of the video, read about the disclaimer. And I promise you'll see something I don't show it on YouTube because I like to use music. And |
| 122 | 00:22:48,450 --> 00:22:57,210 | I always credit the person that I'm using the music from and I don't monetize anything on Twitter. So it's a matter of me doing something artistic that I like |
| 123 | 00:22:57,210 --> 00:23:07,440 | to do. I execute I trade and then I put a song that either inspires me or I'm inspired by watching my playback and then I'll add it to Twitter. So actually |
| 124 | 00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:16,320 | you can watch me execute both the shorts in ES and NASDAQ stocks are placed and the trade is managed from beginning to end. And it's I'll talk to you next time. |
| 125 | 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:17,250 | Be safe |