ICT YT - 2023-06-24 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Market Review June 24 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-06-30 08:34
Outline
00:17 - Weekly Dollar Index Review.
- Weekly chart, dollar index, fair value gap.
- Daily chart, candlestick chart.
02:34 - Daily chart of the Euro Dollar.
- Weekly euro/dollar daily chart and weekly chart.
- Weekly fair value gap.
04:46 - Weekly chart of the current market structure.
- Hourly chart of the dollar and euro.
- Optimal trade entry in the market.
06:52 - Weekly Emi S and P chart.
- S and p weekly chart.
- Nasdaq reprice to the entirety of the city.
08:29 - Opening range gaps and closing range gaps.
- Opening range gaps and new day opening gaps.
- New range gaps.
11:07 - Chart of opening range gap in price.
- The five minute chart of the market.
- The discount period on friday.
13:20 - Support and resistance inversion.
- Support and resistance levels in the market.
- Daily fair value gap in the markets.
15:13 - Bias is what my bias is.
- Discoloration for those who have been with me for this year.
- Bias is bearish.
17:06 - Opening range gap and closing range.
- How to trade the Sydney price range.
- The one minute chart of the model.
18:32 - The market starts to work lower again.
- Looking for an imbalance to enter on to get in sync with the directional bias.
- PM session silver bullet.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:17,580 --> 00:00:27,870 | ICT: Got any books? Happy Saturday to you. So we're gonna do a little review today, I promise I won't keep you too long. So here's the dollar index is our |
| 2 | 00:00:27,870 --> 00:00:47,670 | weekly chart. There is a fair value gap in here that has been left in place from last week's trading, which is this weekly candle. Want to see if we can keep |
| 3 | 00:00:47,670 --> 00:01:00,780 | this level and in the form of resistance, in other words, it can go up here, hit it and how we trade after go into it is going to be vital for me going forward. |
| 4 | 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:10,710 | Now if we were to go above it come back down in what to expect it to act as support and maybe reach up into the rejection block which is as high as up close |
| 5 | 00:01:11,220 --> 00:01:23,310 | price here, then eventually behind consequent curtailment of that wick. But I want to wait and see what we get on Sunday's opening. And I'm gonna allow |
| 6 | 00:01:23,310 --> 00:01:38,670 | Monday's trading. Because there's a lot of things happening around the world. And if you're not paying attention, these things might surprise you. So just |
| 7 | 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:50,250 | check the news headlines, and you'll see what I'm talking about. But moving on into a daily chart. So there is our weekly Fair Pay Gap viewed with a daily |
| 8 | 00:01:50,700 --> 00:02:01,830 | candlestick chart, so it doesn't look like there's any imbalance there at all. But on the weekly chart, there is. Okay, so we did have some support off of this |
| 9 | 00:02:01,830 --> 00:02:09,990 | fair value gap here. I mentioned when we are dropping, go back and look at the older commentaries that we reach into here at a volume imbalance and said we get |
| 10 | 00:02:09,990 --> 00:02:26,280 | below that and this is the area to watch. We traded down into that on Thursday, right up into consequent encouragement of this wick right there. So it's a wait |
| 11 | 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:36,930 | and see. So Sunday's trading Monday's trading, we keep my cards close to my best. I'm not certain what we'll see. But could be pretty volatile next week. |
| 12 | 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:50,940 | Euro dollar daily chart. Okay, we have a weekly imbalance here. And you can look at that on your own charts and try not to put too many things in front of you to |
| 13 | 00:02:50,940 --> 00:03:00,630 | look out to leave you some room to go and do your own investigation. So we have a weekly fare a gap here again, look at your weekly chart and you'll see this |
| 14 | 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:15,030 | same thing here. Easiest way to identify with study is put a rectangle on the daily chart from this low to this candles high and a good year weekly chart. And |
| 15 | 00:03:15,030 --> 00:03:27,870 | you'll see right away what that would be fair value. So the fair pay gap is formed now because of this. Fairly close. We've worked off of this value gap. |
| 16 | 00:03:28,770 --> 00:03:45,270 | And I want to see does this final findings way above the weekly fair value gap and act as support? There's been some issues with the crops from agricultural |
| 17 | 00:03:45,270 --> 00:03:55,290 | standpoint for folks that follow the commodity market. The grain markets because there's a drought right now corn, wheat and soybeans are expected to have a |
| 18 | 00:03:55,290 --> 00:04:10,320 | difficult year. So that would be bullish for those grain prices. And if that's the case, that would probably be seen with $1 index that is consolidating or |
| 19 | 00:04:10,410 --> 00:04:27,900 | lower. But we have the added uncertainty of W AR you paying attention itself is a lot of things that weigh out. So what do you do with this information? When I |
| 20 | 00:04:27,900 --> 00:04:40,650 | see it like this, I stay to the day trading market not doing longer term analysis is sticking to intraday trading the sessions only morning session, |
| 21 | 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:55,800 | afternoon session, one in session that type of thing. hourly chart here you can see we ran above by side shift in market structure here. Right there and then we |
| 22 | 00:04:55,800 --> 00:05:09,570 | rally back up is this model 2020 Is your entry then drilling down into an imbalance. That would be your perfect 2020 model. Or trade Soviet down into this |
| 23 | 00:05:09,570 --> 00:05:18,450 | low here. If you look real close, you'll see there as they pass Anabella sells 100 efficiency within Autoblog. That's why you see this nice little rip higher, |
| 24 | 00:05:19,140 --> 00:05:31,710 | there is some unfilled sell side amounts by selling efficiency. So for the balls, you will need to get back above the weekly fair rate gap, find some |
| 25 | 00:05:31,710 --> 00:05:43,530 | support and rally. Otherwise, we could see consolidation on the dollar and make a run for Euro sellside liquidity here and dig in a little bit deeper on that |
| 26 | 00:05:43,530 --> 00:05:58,890 | weekly fair value got that has just formed. In a timeframe. Okay, just a little bit more detail. Nice city after a shift in market structure, they're after |
| 27 | 00:05:58,890 --> 00:06:15,600 | biocides taken in balance, sell off optimal trade entry here. And sells off again. frequently go What does it break wake up briefly that is rehab a severe |
| 28 | 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:27,870 | busy in an area close to a swing high or low in this case, it's moving lower. So in this swing high at this is a optimal trade entry that you would look to try |
| 29 | 00:06:27,870 --> 00:06:37,200 | to get into obviously, you would expect it to do what drop. So if it drops aggressively, that's a very good signature something supports the idea that your |
| 30 | 00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:54,630 | own side and you don't want to see that gap fill. So you would treat it as a breakaway gap and the run down into the 145 or so. Emini s&p weekly chart. So we |
| 31 | 00:06:54,630 --> 00:07:06,150 | had our inefficiency here and a TD we have this old high and bison liquidity we mentioned all these things should all be up reprice to the entirety of this |
| 32 | 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:17,160 | city. And there is a volume imbalance right there. That should be resumed going higher going into next week or while you're on that will be the next draw. |
| 33 | 00:07:17,610 --> 00:07:28,800 | Comparatively speaking, as I mentioned, also, I want to talk about NASDAQ tonight, but NASDAQ has in fact, reached up into the equivalent of this volume |
| 34 | 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:42,480 | imbalance on es here, the NASDAQ for that same time period in that respective date. It did already trade up into that area, for its moment bounce, but the s&p |
| 35 | 00:07:42,480 --> 00:08:02,970 | has only traded up into this city with by Savion, taken here, and we try to read back down into the low of this city right there. When our chart on es in the |
| 36 | 00:08:02,970 --> 00:08:16,110 | chart is shown in regular trading hours, here's that buy side, we've worked all up to the upside for a move just outside of that old city, which is the shaded |
| 37 | 00:08:16,110 --> 00:08:26,970 | area here. Then we broke lower, heavy volume imbalance in here cheers up just enough to get into the actual gap. This is a liquidity void of reopen when |
| 38 | 00:08:26,970 --> 00:08:37,500 | there's new trading at all. And then another opening range gap. That's what you're seeing here. These are opening range gaps, opening range gap, opening |
| 39 | 00:08:37,500 --> 00:08:48,420 | range gap. So where we settle at, on the New York session, when you're watching CNBC, they ring the bell and they clap their hands. That's the equivalent. And |
| 40 | 00:08:48,420 --> 00:08:57,720 | then where we open up the following day at 930. That's what's being represented here. That's the opening range gap. So whenever you hear me talking about that's |
| 41 | 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:11,040 | the concept of employing here in in reference to time there's an opening gap here, trade up into it, treat it once more as resistance and cells. Opening |
| 42 | 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:30,690 | range get for Thursday's trading. And then Friday morning 930 opening that separation in there will be seen as the opening range gap right so you can see. |
| 43 | 00:09:31,860 --> 00:09:46,380 | Now nice so opening range gap trades up into here on the 21st we break lower. We have an opening range gap here that's not shaded but extended in time and see |
| 44 | 00:09:46,380 --> 00:09:53,490 | that we're returning back into that. Now opening range gaps. I don't like to take them |
| 45 | 00:09:55,620 --> 00:10:06,480 | beyond five days. So I in my opinion The End expire in five days. Now, that doesn't mean that you won't find examples of where the market has respected them |
| 46 | 00:10:07,020 --> 00:10:19,260 | that were utilized beyond the limitations of the filter, I'm saying I use for my analysis. So five days after that, you know, six days from this day, basically, |
| 47 | 00:10:19,620 --> 00:10:31,890 | I'm no longer interested in needing using that as a return back into it as support or resistance. So I'm not treating it like a new week opening. Okay, so |
| 48 | 00:10:32,310 --> 00:10:50,010 | new week opening gaps, I can hold on to them, and use them for months. Opening range gaps, and New Day opening gaps. They're short term imbalances with an |
| 49 | 00:10:50,010 --> 00:11:07,530 | expiration date. And it's five days. Okay. So you know, we had the market open, bounced around, trade up into half of the gap from the opening range. And we |
| 50 | 00:11:07,530 --> 00:11:25,740 | have a five minute chart here. See where we settled, where we opened that range here. And in 50%, of that opening range gap is being noted here. So we chatted |
| 51 | 00:11:25,830 --> 00:11:38,100 | about short term high in the morning session, cheap back down to the low the opening range gap, which is the opening price 930, near focal time, regular |
| 52 | 00:11:38,100 --> 00:11:46,560 | trading hours, you'll see the separation trick down to the opening price at 930. And then rallies, what is it going to try to do, it's going to reach for the buy |
| 53 | 00:11:46,560 --> 00:12:02,220 | side here, and then try to work inside and reprice into all this opening range gap. But we have a lot of order flow here. And here. So it's not necessary to do |
| 54 | 00:12:02,220 --> 00:12:13,680 | a complete closure. And I mentioned that I was interested in that daily fear Vega en es has sent a tweet out on Friday morning. And I'll show you that when |
| 55 | 00:12:13,680 --> 00:12:28,950 | we get into later. But right away, you can see how we went from noon to 130. We ran by side. And then the target or bias that I mentioned I'd liked for Friday, |
| 56 | 00:12:29,550 --> 00:12:46,350 | which was the discount period go on? Yes. We actually traded into it by one tick. So here's the 12pm to 1:30pm, New York launch. And I taught recently how |
| 57 | 00:12:46,350 --> 00:12:55,440 | to use this information. If you have a bias, you think it's going to be drawing to a specific higher timeframe key level. I shared that with you on Twitter. |
| 58 | 00:12:55,800 --> 00:13:07,740 | Friday morning, I said that I favorite the lower fair value gap. And you can see that on the Yes chart. That's what we're looking at here. So we ran up |
| 59 | 00:13:07,950 --> 00:13:19,620 | throughout lunch to take the buy side half of your half of the opening range gap between where we settled on the previous day when we open at 930 on Friday. |
| 60 | 00:13:20,430 --> 00:13:34,020 | measure that with a 50% is here. It trades to here, consolidate a more time runs into it. And then we changed into mean threshold of this goal shorter block. So |
| 61 | 00:13:34,020 --> 00:13:44,550 | notice how it was used here as support round up. Once we trade below that low. Everyone on PD arrays has an inversion application, everything acts like you'd |
| 62 | 00:13:44,550 --> 00:13:53,400 | learn about in terms of support and resistance, which high and low do you use with classic Support Resistance? See I've already deciphered all that I'm not |
| 63 | 00:13:53,400 --> 00:14:03,300 | looking at just the lows in classic Support Resistance fellows, though look at that low draw a line on that time and price start there. But it doesn't and |
| 64 | 00:14:03,300 --> 00:14:14,850 | control it and rips through it. So my ability to go into waterflow old market structure and refer to very specific levels. Things I'm looking for that are |
| 65 | 00:14:14,850 --> 00:14:26,040 | very finite, they're not ambiguous, there's not a range that you have to guess about. So I want these things have no required rules to adhere to. And you're |
| 66 | 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:35,550 | learning them as we go through this year. So the market rolls back on anyone that was short and this big gap down with electronic trading hour you would see |
| 67 | 00:14:35,550 --> 00:14:47,190 | there's a lot of movement from here to here by side here, by side above some other highs in here that we don't even need to look at. But to eliminate all the |
| 68 | 00:14:47,190 --> 00:14:56,940 | guesswork, just get a range on that opening range gap. It's Friday, it's likely to drop down into its daily fair value gap which I'll show you. So it's only |
| 69 | 00:14:56,940 --> 00:15:08,880 | pullback to give in a short term. In the market breaks lower. And then you get the typical run back down into the opening range gap low here, and then trades |
| 70 | 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:20,940 | into the low target, which daily fair value. And again, I'll show you what that is. But you also probably notice that you see some discoloration here. For those |
| 71 | 00:15:20,940 --> 00:15:30,750 | that have been with me for this year, you already know what that is. That's the framework with silver bullet, am and pm session. So here's a one minute chart. |
| 72 | 00:15:31,710 --> 00:15:49,770 | And you can see how that 50% of the order block and convergence of the opening range, the dashed line is the percent of the opening range gap. And this is 50% |
| 73 | 00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:58,860 | of the order block or mean threshold. So that's what you're seeing here, I'm just gonna tell you that I would have did better job of not working it that way. |
| 74 | 00:15:58,860 --> 00:16:07,560 | So I'm looking at it now, I should have said it differently. But we're gonna stick with what we got here. So at 10 o'clock in the morning, until 11 o'clock |
| 75 | 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:19,230 | in the morning, we're looking for a silver bullet. I mentioned that I favored the lower end. So bias, in my opinion, was bearish. And then I some of you that |
| 76 | 00:16:19,230 --> 00:16:27,330 | are highly critical, or just maybe you're brand new, you're looking at this move here to here. Why is it bearish want to do this wrong? Or how's it bearish? Why |
| 77 | 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:37,830 | did this run to here, or from here to here? What was the largest move of the day, it was moving from here, down to here. And it went one tick below where |
| 78 | 00:16:37,830 --> 00:16:49,620 | I've already told you to look at on Twitter with a daily favor you got. So bias is what my bias is bearish. So I wanted to go short, I showed examples of |
| 79 | 00:16:49,650 --> 00:17:03,750 | executing, working at the 930 opening. And was like 75 or so handles taken out. And you can look at that on Twitter rather than but the if you want to find out |
| 80 | 00:17:03,750 --> 00:17:14,820 | what my Twitter account is, you can go to my YouTube channel. And you'll see the actual official Twitter link, upper right hand corner. But we have a gap here to |
| 81 | 00:17:14,820 --> 00:17:23,760 | trade up into it, right there. And at 11 o'clock, and a few minutes after it's still going a little bit higher, but that's fine. You can see on the one minute |
| 82 | 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:34,200 | chart, there's a little bit longer Sydney, which is a fair Vega. So offers it there, but you would have been filled here. And you'd have to have a little bit |
| 83 | 00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:44,640 | of drawdown is that the rules for Superbowl is you have to enter between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock. And if you're very uncomfortable with that idea, even |
| 84 | 00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:54,600 | don't trade that model. And it trades down to the low end of the open range gap. So that's almost about 10 handles, we don't need that we just need five handles |
| 85 | 00:17:54,600 --> 00:18:04,050 | for a silver bullet that would have offered it there. Then we have the retracement going into lunch running on by side. And then we see at 130 We have |
| 86 | 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:17,400 | one more little trap move that takes us above the relatively equal highs in here by side is tripped and displacement is shown short term lows to have a gap trade |
| 87 | 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:31,920 | up until it wait for displacement. We're at 50% of the opening range. And we're at the old swing low which is a down close candle bullish order block and mean |
| 88 | 00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:42,840 | threshold level. Okay, so that's it this is the market starts to work lower again time between two o'clock and three o'clock we're looking for an imbalance |
| 89 | 00:18:43,380 --> 00:18:53,940 | that we can use to enter on to get in sync with the directional bias. I've shared mine on Twitter. So here's the civvie trade up into it between two |
| 90 | 00:18:53,940 --> 00:19:03,780 | o'clock and three o'clock there's your Pm session Silver Bullet What do you hold for open range cap low and in a daily fair value. So we had a nice run lower |
| 91 | 00:19:03,780 --> 00:19:16,170 | here and then we dig below he's relatively equal lows in one tick into that daily fair value and then retracing back up into the range. Here is that fair a |
| 92 | 00:19:16,170 --> 00:19:29,400 | government daily chart for ES here I had this one highlighted but I very specifically stated that I favor the lower as the bias on the day drove down and |
| 93 | 00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:49,950 | one tick below that low rate there that was was the delivery. So 43 81.75 4381 point 50 was the printed level today measure differentiated |
| 94 | 00:19:56,970 --> 00:20:05,490 | Have you found it insightful try to be as directed To the point of hassle good enjoy your weekend and I'll touch base with you next week I'll talk to you next |
| 95 | 00:20:05,490 --> 00:20:06,390 | time be safe |