ICT YT - 2023-06-15 - ICT Price Action Workshop - Friday June 15 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-06-20 10:05
Outline
01:55 - The enemy is trying to keep you from learning.
- The enemy is trying to keep you from learning today.
- Today's topic, time of day bias.
04:17 - You don’t need a book map to get this information.
- No need for a book map or gimmick.
- Today's topic, forex and index futures.
- Borrow the experience from johnny.
- Where to begin with the 2022 mentorship playlist.
- How much effort and time it takes to become successful.
- How to determine your path through ict.
12:18 - How to determine your foundation for trading.
- Observing repeating phenomenon at specific times of the day.
- Profitability is not a guarantee.
- Why day trading is not every day trading.
- How to avoid drawdowns.
18:31 - How much time to prepare for the presentation?
- Live stream on the 13th of June 2023.
- Creating a timeline for the presentation.
21:17 - The secret of breaking down price.
- Breaking down and looking for the delivery continuity.
- The main takeaways from yesterday's trading
- How to trade fomc and non-farm payroll.
- What to do while listening to me today, and how to take good notes.
27:21 - Dollar Index fair value gap.
- Weekly chart of the dollar index, fair value gap.
- Fair value gap comparison.
- Weekly candlesticks are a weekly candlestick.
- The purple shaded area in purple is an imbalance.
32:33 - Looking at the weekly chart.
- Back and forth, up and down, back and forth.
- Dollar index price action action.
- Why he spends the most time on the weekly chart.
- The three-month chart.
38:37 - If there is no inefficiency, I'm looking for liquidity.
- If there is no inefficiency, then he's looking for liquidity.
- The purple shaded area.
41:32 - Don’t be in a rush for dopamine.
- Don't be in a rush to get another dopamine hit.
- Why social media is a trap.
- Why journaling is toxic to your trading.
- What journaling does to your brain.
- The two reasons why wheat prices go up.
- Why volume is important in analysis.
48:25 - What is a fair value gap?
- Inefficiencies, the gap between candles low and high.
- The first thing to look for in charts.
- The algorithm reaches for any inefficiency first.
- How prices reacted in the weekly chart.
- Understanding and confusion is probably peaking right now.
- Using trendline sections to identify inefficiency.
55:19 - How to use this information for your trading?
- How to use this information to trade the pound.
- How to find a setup.
- How to determine where a likely higher low will form.
- The 60-day look-back.
01:00:25 - Daily chart of inefficiencies.
- Inversion of fair value gap on a daily chart.
- Weekly chart.
01:03:43 - The impact of higher timeframe on risk.
- Weekly inversion of the delivery delivery continuum.
- Using a 1% risk model.
- Don't fall into the low-pip, one pip, stop-losses trap.
- No affiliation with any brokerage firm.
- The three levels to look at on a weekly chart.
- The dollar index.
01:10:19 - How the algorithm works.
- How the algorithm works and how it delivers.
- What to look for in the market.
- The weekly chart is the waterblock.
- The fair value gap below the weekly chart.
- Treating the shaded area as resistance.
- Expectations for the week.
01:17:32 - Using the London open kill zone.
- The time of day is always in new york local time.
- The London open kill zone.
- Weekly bias in the dollar index.
- Daily bullish order block and resistance.
01:20:42 - How to use up close candle rate.
- Using the last candle on some examples.
- The three up close candle rates.
- Optimal trade entry, pdra, fair value gap, 2022 model.
- How to get into a marketplace.
01:25:40 - What is an order block?
- Three consecutive upclose candles, one order block.
- Treating the range as a inversion/fair value.
- Making it up as you go, looking at something in hindsight.
- Looking for signs inside the range.
01:31:42 - How to separate the men from the boys.
- Separating the men from the boys and the sheep time.
- Focus on relationships with dollar.
- High impact news drivers on the economic calendar.
- How to time market moves.
01:37:31 - How would you know if the dollar would reverse?
- How to know when the dollar is trying to catch the bottom.
- Bullish order blocks.
01:40:29 - Why we don’t trade on the weekend?
- Trading over the weekend due to gap risk.
- Taking a break for 10 minute break.
01:48:33 - The candlestick chart for the dollar index.
- Checking twitter before the podcast.
- 15 minute candlestick chart for the dollar index.
- Dollar index on a 15 minute time frame.
- New york open kill zone.
01:53:35 - There is no shortcut version of this process.
- There is no shortcut version of the weekly chart.
- The weekly chart is not complicated.
- Any one of us can be a victim of an unexpected event.
- The fibonacci test.
- The midpoint of any gap or inefficiency.
- What the midpoint means.
02:00:00 - How to frame a setup for a trade.
- Signals in action that confirms the price action.
- The 15 minute chart.
- There is no easy one-to-three precision in trading.
- How to frame a setup.
02:05:20 - Bias and candlestick charts.
- Bias and calendar events this week.
- The myth that fundamentals can be timed.
- Daily chart and bullish order block time of day.
- High of the day high.
02:09:31 - Understanding the inversion period gap.
- Dollar index, dollar index.
- Weekly chart and all timeframes lower than it.
- Highs and lows of the day in the London open.
- Breaking down the price range.
02:12:58 - Shifting market structure and fair value.
- Shifting market structure, fair value and time of day.
- London open kill zone.
- Have these levels in your chart.
- One shot, one kill setups.
- Mentorship for freaks who want to know everything.
- Stick to the rules, time and schedule.
02:20:59 - Transposing your ideas to lower timeframes.
- What is it likely to do in the short term.
- Fibonacci extensions.
02:23:50 - The range that matters and the timing.
- The London close kill zone.
- How to time a move in the market.
- Low-hanging fruit objective, not the end of the road.
- Optimal trade entry.
02:29:38 - Daily charts.
- Negative 2.5 standard deviation on the weekly chart.
- Gap risk on the fib.
02:32:30 - How to backtest your charts.
- Showing what's going to happen beforehand.
- The first partial is not even the first partial.
- You can be profitable and incorrect at the same time.
- Daily candlestick price.
- Retrace in london vs new york.
- Taking partials and wicks when there is a wick
- Taking two wicks back to back.
- How to manage risk in stop-loss trading.
02:41:54 - How to trade the next candle?
- Breaking lower and treating it as an order block.
- Mean threshold becomes critical.
- Mean threshold and section of action.
- Daily order block in the midpoint.
02:46:05 - How to trade down into targets.
- How to trade in new york vs london.
- How to identify resistance and resistance levels.
- The dollar index and the euro.
- The hourly chart and the order block.
02:51:54 - The definition of a mitigation block.
- The purpose and function of a mitigation block.
- The mohawk, the mohawks.
02:54:59 - Trading in the London open kill zone.
- Trading in the London open kill zone.
- How to beat the uncertainty in trading.
- Time of day, friday to london and new york time.
- afternoon trading in currencies.
- Finding profitability in every trade.
- Five minute chart of the five minute chart.
03:01:39 - The silver bullet for London Open.
- The silver bullet for euro for today.
- London open kill zone.
- Determine the fulcrum point.
- How high can it go in the day.
03:05:32 - How do you know when a high is taken out?
- Negative one and a half and two standard deviations.
- The new york session.
- US dollar vs euro smt divergence.
- Key times of the day for forex and currency pairs
03:11:19 - Trading in London vs. New York.
- How to go in and see where these algorithms will occur.
- Daily range moves in Asia.
03:14:02 - Trading day to day.
- Focus on stock index futures trading.
- Where to focus on trading during the week.
- Back to a daily and a pound in sumo.
- Five minute break.
03:24:26 - Looking at the dollar index and the pound.
- Looking at the keyboard market on the 13th of june 2023.
- The weekly gap.
03:27:17 - The inefficiency of the down close candle.
- The inefficiency of the down close candle.
- How to trade a 60 minute chart.
- Power three, accumulation, manipulation and distribution theory.
- Understanding how to be a buyer below the opening price.
03:33:02 - The low of the opening candle.
- The low of the candle after the opening trades down.
- The 14th, actionable day.
- Focus on using vega as a form of support.
- The james swing.
03:36:32 - What to look for in a trade?
- Mentor is weak as a mentor.
- How to overcome character flaws in trading.
- The emotional tug of war that comes with trading.
- Seasonal tendency.
- Seasonal tendency, seasonal tendency and acetyl nz.
- The one-minute chart.
03:43:56 - Why are you learning how to trade?
- How to find the choicest cream of the crop setups for the week.
- How to be a youtuber.
- The power three concept, accumulation, manipulation and distribution.
- The daily chart and daily charts.
03:47:38 - How do you use this information on a bullish day?
- How to use the weekly chart for a bullish day.
- Five second charts.
- The dance between liquidity and how it is utilized in delivery.
- The low hanging fruit objective.
- Cable could trade up into this area.
- The gradient levels above the gap.
03:55:14 - Inefficiencies on the weekly chart.
Inefficiency on the weekly chart.
- London open kill zone, european open london.
- Signature of higher timeframe inefficiencies.
- Bridging the gap between expectancy and resistance.
03:58:22 - What does this mean for the pound?
- The british pound has unfinished business.
- The mohawk is a mohawks.
- Retail sees a bear flag drop their flag.
- Weekly inefficiencies and liquidity.
- Using all of the candles for entry and support.
- Using up close for mentorship.
04:05:36 - Trading ahead of the cpi.
- Back to daily nasdaq trading.
- Not to trade ahead of cpi.
- Nasdaq ahead of cpi, a classic fomc-type event.
- Why to be cautious ahead of Cpi.
04:10:16 - High impact news drivers and stop losses.
- High impact news drivers, fomc, cpi, non-farm payroll.
- Trading on mondays.
- Being a responsible person when learning from a mentor.
- Cpi can rip your head off.
- Simple little rules for new traders.
- One good setup per week and build on that.
04:17:53 - Nasdaq hourly chart of the current market.
- Nasdaq hourly chart and where it is at 8am.
- Best scenario for continuation on the upside.
- Bodies respect the upper quadrant of the market.
- The lower quadrant is not revisited.
04:21:17 - What is a bounce price range?
- Bounce range and key reversal.
- Key reversal, a classic old school dinosaur type of trading.
- The element of separation that goes to an extreme.
- The balance range.
- The difference between a balanced range and a bounce range.
- Rules to all these things.
04:28:58 - How do you determine when to buy?
- Supporting the idea that the market wants to go higher.
- Power three, open, close and close.
- Compressing multiple candles into one interval.
- Using the same criteria for each candle.
04:32:43 - How to identify and map out a fair value gap.
Identifying and mapping out the range.
- How to determine fair value gaps stay open.
- Treating the gap as a breakaway gap or not fully closing.
- Breaking away gap.
- What to look for in a breakaway gap.
- What to expect in the next candle.
04:40:24 - The candlestick chart shown on the right.
- Movement from here down is a long entry or pyramid.
- The 15 minute candlestick chart.
- The importance of being versed in the market.
- How to read price action.
04:44:13 - Stripping down the market and looking for value.
- Larry williams, strip down the market and look for discount/premium.
- Stick to the things that make sense.
- Consistency and continuity is key to longevity.
- The five minute chart.
- The why behind a partial profit.
- The animal that tells you to trade.
04:51:47 - Why do silver bullets work?
- The market opens at 9:30 a.m. local time.
- Retail trader john q public is watching the ticker.
- New sentiment shifts when the gap fills.
- How the 30 minute opening range works.
04:54:47 - Using continuous contracts to get a higher timeframe perspective.
- Using the continuous contract to get a higher timeframe perspective.
- Nasdaq is an upside leader.
- Nasdaq has room to go up on the upside.
- Dow is lethargic and retraced lower.
05:00:49 - How to compare the candlestick charts.
- The 15 minute chart is a bellwether chart.
- Larry williams calling for a retracement.
- Short term and long term trades.
- How to use candlesticks to compare charts.
05:04:10 - How to use this chart to trade the low.
- Creating templates and plotting with the Dow and Nasdaq.
- Comparison of low and high.
- Correlated pair smt vs index futures.
- The importance of having at least two monitors.
05:09:22 - How to look for divergence?
- S and p divergence and accumulation distribution.
- Looking for 50 day moving average.
- S and P divergence and profit taking.
- Using S and P divergence for SMT trading.
05:12:47 - Why silver bullets form and how they form.
- Using entry models like the 2020 model and silver bullet trades.
- Intraday movement in London.
- The algorithm is offering it to him.
- The fair value of the price.
- Where to find all of the videos on Twitter.
- Daily chart of gold.
05:18:45 - Sell off below the relative equal lows.
- Relatively equal lows from the daily chart.
- Fomc and non-farm payroll.
- Gold is one of the highest manipulated instruments.
- Gold is the perfect oversold condition.
05:22:14 - Looking at the market from a liquidity perspective.
- Looking at the market from liquidity or inefficiency.
- How to identify overbought and oversold.
- The general rule of thumb for fomc events.
- The two stages of Fomc.
- Don't want anyone being able to copy him.
- The best student that comes to him is the one who just wants to learn and practice.
05:29:52 - How to trade Fomc.
- How to trade fomc and non-farm payroll.
- The first initial run and reversal.
05:32:26 - Gold’s run and run and rip.
- Gold keeps going lower or it keeps going higher.
- The two stages of delivery.
- Fair value gap and fair value gap.
- Nasdaq delivery contract month, september 2023
05:37:37 - The leadership on the upside of the S&p.
- Leadership on the upside of the Nasdaq and FOMC.
- The most energetic leg beginning at 230.
05:40:18 - Short term high and stop loss.
- Big move going into fomc.
- Nasdaq is the first stage of the delivery.
- How to go long on a pyramid.
- The two stages of FOMC.
05:45:55 - You can’t trade that you cannot trade.
- Wait 30 minutes for big impact news drivers.
- Wait for the initial shock.
- Wait for the first move in FOMC and rip the other direction.
- Closing remarks.
05:49:17 - Leadership and when it matters.
- Understanding leadership and when it matters most.
- The relationship between the nasdaq and es.
- The difference between the Dow and the Nasdaq.
- The Dow is a very thin index.
- The relationship between the euro and the nasdaq.
- The importance of understanding the relationships.
Transcript
| 1 | 00:01:55,740 --> 00:02:10,020 | ICT: Good morning, folks. The enemy is trying he's trying to keep you from learning today. almost choked to death before I got on here today. And then |
| 2 | 00:02:10,050 --> 00:02:18,780 | audio was acting up. So give me one second here it looks like it's a little too aggressive. One second please |
| 3 | 00:02:29,970 --> 00:02:49,740 | this should be a little bit better. And it is a good morning despite being a little tardy or reasons outside my reasons in circumstances outside my control. |
| 4 | 00:02:51,330 --> 00:03:01,590 | Yeah, I was trying to rush down some bone broth. Work I didn't hear and went down the wrong hole. And then the audio acted up a little bit. So I'm checking |
| 5 | 00:03:01,590 --> 00:03:07,950 | Twitter right now if you all would help me out if you can hear me. If the volume is good, everything is five by five. |
| 6 | 00:03:16,380 --> 00:03:22,320 | Awesome. Yeah, it looks like the title I have. Looks like I'll put the title on |
| 7 | 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:39,180 | for Friday, sorry, apologize. Today is Thursday. You're not the you're not time traveling with me just yet. Maybe after November this year, you'll be able to do |
| 8 | 00:03:39,180 --> 00:03:53,430 | some time travel. Alright, so I got a little bit of a wild hair up my ass yesterday. or whenever it was, I sent a tweet out saying let's do a workshop. So |
| 9 | 00:03:53,490 --> 00:04:04,800 | I usually go on these long winded Twitter spaces. And I promise we're gonna be doing a lot of teaching today. Okay, so if you're here to learn, I promise you, |
| 10 | 00:04:04,830 --> 00:04:14,130 | you will learn a lot today, you'll learn about fair value gaps, you'll learn about price delivery, you'll learn about time of day bias, daily bias, session |
| 11 | 00:04:14,130 --> 00:04:24,300 | bias stops, where should you look for stops. So you don't need a book map or any kind of gimmick out there that requires you to subscribe to something. I'm |
| 12 | 00:04:24,300 --> 00:04:33,270 | placing insight in your hands so that way you don't have to have any kind of service whatsoever. All you need is the open high, low close, how to work within |
| 13 | 00:04:33,270 --> 00:04:38,610 | the timeframes. I'm going to work from the higher timeframes down to lower timeframes. I'm going to teach you how to back test today. We're going to be |
| 14 | 00:04:38,610 --> 00:04:54,120 | here for a while. Okay. I'm not going to be able to promise you a rant won't come in and out throughout this session. So I've allowed eight o'clock to 11. It |
| 15 | 00:04:54,120 --> 00:05:02,340 | might go longer. I don't know, but everything will be recorded. So if you can't stay here for the day Asian, if you're at work, and you're sneaking in here to |
| 16 | 00:05:02,340 --> 00:05:11,550 | listen in, shame on you, you're stealing from your boss, I'm not trying to encourage that, and I told you to call out. So today, we're gonna cover a lot of |
| 17 | 00:05:11,550 --> 00:05:23,430 | stuff. I'm gonna cover Forex, I'm going to cover index futures, I'm going to cover a lot of things that would otherwise be kind of like the first day, when |
| 18 | 00:05:23,460 --> 00:05:34,350 | in the mid 90s, I did one on one teachings. And every time I would have a schedule, or an appointment with someone, I would tell them, what would happen |
| 19 | 00:05:34,890 --> 00:05:44,670 | the previous week. So that way, when we would meet on our first session together, I would have everything already in the charts that already told them |
| 20 | 00:05:44,820 --> 00:05:56,340 | the week prior. So everything that I do and have taught for years, has always been on the premise of me telling you before it happens, explain explaining what |
| 21 | 00:05:56,340 --> 00:06:06,360 | it's going to do, then we wait for price to do it. And then I can go in and teach more amplified approaches to what it is already taught you conceptually on |
| 22 | 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:20,940 | this YouTube video, or YouTube series channel, where we will call it in my mentorship, all those lectures, and lessons. If you are looking for that real |
| 23 | 00:06:20,940 --> 00:06:29,040 | quick watch, give me something and start studying. If you're new, you don't know where to begin, I kind of like want to place this in the beginning. So give me |
| 24 | 00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:37,770 | like, like 10 minutes of your time. And if you are seasoned, and you've been around me for a while, the next 10 minutes is not necessary. So if you want to |
| 25 | 00:06:37,770 --> 00:06:46,620 | go grab something to drink, go to bathroom real quick. Use that time here. This part is for the very, very brand new, you've never been here, you never watched |
| 26 | 00:06:46,620 --> 00:06:53,070 | a my stuff, or you've watched a couple of videos and you just feel like this is too much information. Where do I begin? I want to kind of like put this in here, |
| 27 | 00:06:53,070 --> 00:07:05,130 | because it's also a video that I'm gonna refer to in my first book. So there's a lot of things going to be placing in this channel throughout the duration of |
| 28 | 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:14,460 | 2023, that will help amplify the things I'm going to teach in the book because obviously books in charge, they're static. They're not as dynamic and as good as |
| 29 | 00:07:14,460 --> 00:07:24,450 | a teaching tool. Whereas you're here and see me doing here. And you also knew on the 13th of this week, what I said was going to happen in in price action. And |
| 30 | 00:07:24,450 --> 00:07:31,890 | it happened. So that way, it's not like I'm Cherry Picking like you hear people like to say, I tell you exactly what's going to happen. And then we go in and |
| 31 | 00:07:31,890 --> 00:07:42,060 | you see how the setups form. So I'm telling you with experience, when you watch my live streams, or if you're watching on Twitter, or if I say something in a |
| 32 | 00:07:42,060 --> 00:07:54,000 | Twitter space, that leads to my opinion about where I think price is going to go. Your task as a student here is to borrow that experience from me. Okay, it's |
| 33 | 00:07:54,000 --> 00:08:02,640 | not meant to be a signal service. A lot of you want it Johnny on the spot. Give it to me right now. So I can copy you that that part I don't want to do. But I |
| 34 | 00:08:02,670 --> 00:08:12,000 | tell you what it's going to do beforehand, I do it on higher timeframe charts, so allows you enough time to study it. Okay. So where would you begin, if you're |
| 35 | 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:22,230 | brand new, and you're a little lost in all this information, go to the 2022 mentorship playlist, there's 41 videos in there. You could probably ignore the |
| 36 | 00:08:22,230 --> 00:08:29,880 | first video, if you're really in a rush. But don't skip anything. A lot of people like this device, the first few and they think they understand it, you |
| 37 | 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:38,820 | don't. So when you're gonna you're gonna see that you don't know that because I'm talking about a lot of things with the 2020 model in today's discussion, and |
| 38 | 00:08:38,820 --> 00:08:48,000 | we'll talk about silver bullets, those setups as well. There's a lot of things here. I got like two pages of stuff we're going to cover and my whole days open. |
| 39 | 00:08:48,360 --> 00:09:01,440 | It depends on how how much energy I got. Okay, so I rested well. But you can go right into finding setups and being convinced that there's enough information in |
| 40 | 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:11,160 | that 2022 playlist on this YouTube channel to help you go in start looking at things and watching Real right now go out there and start looking for setups, |
| 41 | 00:09:11,310 --> 00:09:20,040 | the practice observing, not trading, okay, don't think you can watch it real quick and try to trade with real money. Okay, it's important that you understand |
| 42 | 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:29,850 | you have to slow down your impulsiveness to want to make money. I know it's exciting seeing the things I'm sharing, and my students sharing and all these |
| 43 | 00:09:29,850 --> 00:09:39,960 | people that are claiming that they found success with my stuff. And it's wonderful, honored, I'm such a in a position of privilege to be considered your |
| 44 | 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:49,050 | mentor and having so many people around the world being profitable now. But it's not a rush to get to that point. Every single one of my failed students and I |
| 45 | 00:09:49,050 --> 00:09:57,660 | have them. I don't have just winners. I don't have just success stories, like anything in life. There's going to be folks that just simply can't do it or |
| 46 | 00:09:57,660 --> 00:10:07,650 | can't do it yet, and eventually they get there See how much effort and time you put into this is going to decide how fast? Not that that should be a factor. But |
| 47 | 00:10:07,650 --> 00:10:16,470 | how long is it going to take you to find your setup? What is your setup? How do you determine what that is because I teach a lot of ways to get into a market, |
| 48 | 00:10:16,620 --> 00:10:31,050 | we're going to teach that today too. So this meeting today, this come together come to Jesus meeting with the ICT content is really focused on where you should |
| 49 | 00:10:31,050 --> 00:10:43,860 | be in your pursuit of learning what you should be focusing on, and how to determine your path through all this content. Because I teach a lot of things, a |
| 50 | 00:10:43,860 --> 00:10:52,260 | lot of ways to trade, different timeframes to trade, different setups, different entry mechanisms, different ways to take profits, where to take partials, how to |
| 51 | 00:10:52,260 --> 00:11:01,710 | take partials, we're gonna cover all that stuff today, and cramming everything in here, as like a nuts and bolts kitchen sink approach to ICT so that way, you |
| 52 | 00:11:01,710 --> 00:11:13,110 | can go through today's presentation, and determine where your area of study would be best served for your personal interest. So that way, you'll hit the |
| 53 | 00:11:13,110 --> 00:11:22,470 | ground running, or it'll highlight where you're lacking. In your personal study right now, you may be hit and miss, where you make some profits and your demo |
| 54 | 00:11:22,470 --> 00:11:30,210 | account. And then you lose it. And you go back down to breakeven, but you just don't blow out the account. That's a wonderful position to be in. You may not |
| 55 | 00:11:30,210 --> 00:11:38,820 | feel like that is, but it's a wonderful position to be in. Because if you're in there impulsively, just pushing the button, you're probably blown your account, |
| 56 | 00:11:38,850 --> 00:11:48,060 | you have no idea no model, no, no frame of reference to anticipate anything happening in price. And we're going to remove that today. So that way, at least |
| 57 | 00:11:48,060 --> 00:11:57,120 | you give yourself a framework to go forward and study. And then you can start measuring progress, which is really important. Because if you just simply watch |
| 58 | 00:11:57,120 --> 00:12:06,120 | my videos, and this is the part you need to listen to carefully. If you simply watch my videos, or wait for my next video to come out, and you're just a |
| 59 | 00:12:06,180 --> 00:12:15,870 | viewer, and you don't go into your own charts, looking for this information, not trying to demo real time, going back and look at old price moves. And we're |
| 60 | 00:12:15,870 --> 00:12:21,930 | gonna do that today, I'm going to show you exactly what you're supposed to be doing. It's not hard. It's a little bit tedious in the beginning, because it |
| 61 | 00:12:21,930 --> 00:12:30,030 | feels like it's counterproductive. You're looking at something that's already happened. But everything technical, everything worth doing is always based on |
| 62 | 00:12:30,030 --> 00:12:39,660 | studying something as a case study that's happened in the past, how else can you determine your foundation to something you have to have a good foundation and |
| 63 | 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:51,240 | observing, repeating phenomenon at specific times of the day. With repeating characteristics, that's what I teach. So those Hallmark signatures and price |
| 64 | 00:12:51,240 --> 00:13:00,120 | action. That's that's the whole basis of what I do. As a mentor. I'm teaching you how to observe and find that I don't and I can't promise you profitability. |
| 65 | 00:13:00,150 --> 00:13:10,560 | That's something that you're going to determine based on how much time and effort and organization you bring into this last point, and then we get into it. |
| 66 | 00:13:11,550 --> 00:13:23,010 | If you are lazy, you will fail here. If you have an entitlement mindset where I owe you something, I have to do everything for you or I can't learn this unless |
| 67 | 00:13:23,010 --> 00:13:26,340 | it's one on one, or it has to be done live. |
| 68 | 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:39,899 | I'm not going to be a good help for you. I will call moves. I will outline things, watch my live streams. I call every smallest timeframe, candlestick one |
| 69 | 00:13:39,899 --> 00:13:48,659 | at a time, where it's going to go how it's going to behave. There is no better performance measurement than that. If there is no way of doing that real time, |
| 70 | 00:13:49,169 --> 00:13:57,569 | then there's no need for you to ask for statements and give me a live trade and trade live in front of me because I've already I've already done that. That's in |
| 71 | 00:13:57,569 --> 00:14:05,849 | my live streams and you'll have a live account with TD Ameritrade, you can actually see statements where I logged into every single day. When loss exercise |
| 72 | 00:14:05,849 --> 00:14:15,839 | of drawdown came out of drawdown just to teach students. There's nothing to be afraid of. There's no fear of losing, you should respect risk. You will lose |
| 73 | 00:14:15,839 --> 00:14:30,029 | trades. Every body that trades every single method, every single teacher educator. Everybody, if you're going to put risk in the marketplace, invariably, |
| 74 | 00:14:30,029 --> 00:14:40,379 | you're going to incur a loss. And you have to accept the fact that's going to happen. How you handle yourself, how you handle your perception about your |
| 75 | 00:14:40,379 --> 00:14:50,699 | ability to work through that and stick to the model that you have trusted, that it doesn't have to be perfect 100% strike rate is not possible. It's not |
| 76 | 00:14:50,699 --> 00:15:03,389 | realistic for you, okay. But you don't need a high rate of return or success rate in terms of trades to be profitable. I'm not promising you get rich, I'm |
| 77 | 00:15:03,389 --> 00:15:11,519 | not promising you millions. But the things that I teach and money management and all those things factored together, can you become wealthy? Absolutely. Can you |
| 78 | 00:15:11,519 --> 00:15:21,899 | quit your job? Absolutely. Can you have a secondary income and still keep your job and just treat this as a another side hustle? Sure. It's completely scalable |
| 79 | 00:15:21,899 --> 00:15:31,649 | to you. You want to win competitions? Yes, you can do that, too. So it's a matter of what you're doing? And why are you trying to trade. And if you're here |
| 80 | 00:15:31,709 --> 00:15:39,449 | to try to be the next social media superstar, that's probably not the best way of doing it. Because you're going to be impulsive, everything you're doing is |
| 81 | 00:15:39,449 --> 00:15:49,019 | trying to get ahead of somebody else, when it should be just about making sure you don't lose money. And that you're working towards learning how to be |
| 82 | 00:15:49,049 --> 00:16:01,139 | consistently profitable, and consistently profitable, doesn't equate to every day trading. Day trading is not everyday trading. I promise you, if you try to |
| 83 | 00:16:01,139 --> 00:16:09,599 | do it every single day, especially in the first two years or so, you're gonna have a whole lot more losses than is necessary. Which is the reason why I teach |
| 84 | 00:16:09,629 --> 00:16:18,269 | with a lot of lectures. And in the dry parts of my discussions, there are the parts that you're going to come back to, after you tried to do this, you made a |
| 85 | 00:16:18,269 --> 00:16:25,769 | little bit of money, or you found some success in it, you're hooked. Now, you want to keep doing it and have more of that experience. And then you have a |
| 86 | 00:16:25,769 --> 00:16:33,839 | losing trade, and you want to hurt me race it and fix it, I'm going to close the day with fixing that loss, then you make it bigger. And then you start that |
| 87 | 00:16:33,869 --> 00:16:47,609 | routine of chasing breakeven on the day. And all that does generally makes a larger drawdown. So you want to avoid those those periods and be content with, |
| 88 | 00:16:47,789 --> 00:16:55,709 | okay, you did something wrong, it doesn't mean everything's broken. But you can derail yourself in your learning. Or if you're trying to trade with live funds |
| 89 | 00:16:55,709 --> 00:17:08,309 | before you're supposed to, you won't do well. And it makes it harder. So when I teach, I give you 30 years of experience, the things that I'm talking about, I |
| 90 | 00:17:08,309 --> 00:17:19,019 | went through it, I lost lots of money, lots of accounts, I did it to myself, nobody else was to blame I did every single time called I caused all that. And |
| 91 | 00:17:19,049 --> 00:17:30,839 | you have to be responsible with your own actions as well. So if you make money using what I teach you, well done. I am not responsible for that. If you lose |
| 92 | 00:17:30,839 --> 00:17:42,959 | money, well, you did that. Own it. So I'm giving you my experience on proving that I can tell you what's going to happen in the marketplace with a great deal |
| 93 | 00:17:42,959 --> 00:17:54,989 | of precision. And you can learn that precision, you can grow into having a very clean, understanding about price, what to anticipate, and more importantly, when |
| 94 | 00:17:54,989 --> 00:18:06,929 | not to try to trade that is an important lesson. And not too many people are we aware really that that's an important factor in trading. And that sometimes is |
| 95 | 00:18:06,959 --> 00:18:14,999 | the boring conversations. But I promise you, once you go into drawdown, you're going to want to listen to those parts in the videos again. And then you're |
| 96 | 00:18:14,999 --> 00:18:25,649 | going to wish that you listened and fell, follow the advice I gave you. I want you to do well. I really, really want to see you succeed, more so than you do. |
| 97 | 00:18:26,729 --> 00:18:35,129 | But there's got to be rules that you have to follow. And you have to give yourself time to grow into it. Okay, so with that mindset, and that, I guess, |
| 98 | 00:18:35,129 --> 00:18:45,689 | goal in mind, let's begin. After this presentation today, over the weekend, you know, I don't know how much time you have to devote to this today or that over |
| 99 | 00:18:45,689 --> 00:18:57,869 | the next couple of days. But I did a live stream on the 13th of June. And I talked about some of the things we're talking about in the first hour of the |
| 100 | 00:18:57,869 --> 00:19:07,439 | presentation here. I'll do one hour, and then I'll break for like 510 minutes, I'll leave the recording going. So that way, if you have to tend to something, |
| 101 | 00:19:07,439 --> 00:19:16,049 | relieve yourself or whatever, I'm gonna want to stretch out as well. And then we'll come back. So we'll do that like every hour that like a 1010 510 minute |
| 102 | 00:19:16,409 --> 00:19:28,769 | break, but the recording will still keep going. For those that are really helpful in their own recording and documentation where I talk about certain |
| 103 | 00:19:28,769 --> 00:19:39,869 | things, and I have very studious students like to do this. If you would help me create a little timeline for if I transition from one topic to the next or if I |
| 104 | 00:19:39,869 --> 00:19:51,719 | go from one market to the next. If you want to send me those minute markers on Twitter, that would be wonderful. And I'll use those in the comment section of |
| 105 | 00:19:51,719 --> 00:19:59,069 | the video so that we helps people go right to those moment. I am not going to go through this and do that myself. But I know I have a lot of students that do |
| 106 | 00:19:59,069 --> 00:20:10,319 | that for their own In purposes in my other videos, so just let you know, appreciate that help. But on the 13th, I covered my opinion about what I thought |
| 107 | 00:20:10,349 --> 00:20:23,669 | was going to happen this week. And when I was doing one on one mentorships, back in the mid 90s, folks would learn about me, by me advertising. And I was there |
| 108 | 00:20:23,669 --> 00:20:34,829 | was a high end advertisement. So it was people that had a lot of money, and wanted to come to me and learn how to do something with that money on their own, |
| 109 | 00:20:35,399 --> 00:20:46,679 | and had either already been in the marketplace or was looking to do something to get into it. So one of the greatest selling points I had was, I would tell them, |
| 110 | 00:20:47,039 --> 00:20:58,679 | much like I did on the 13th of June 2023, it's on my YouTube, it was live streamed, it wasn't a pre recorded thing, everybody wants me out on it. And we |
| 111 | 00:20:58,679 --> 00:21:10,049 | talked about the CPI number, and I walked you through CPI, real time. And I walked you through a 15 second candlestick chart. So every single candlestick, |
| 112 | 00:21:10,289 --> 00:21:19,829 | Representative fluctuation of the highest high and the lowest low and opening close of every 15 second increment. Now, you don't see that in books, you don't |
| 113 | 00:21:19,829 --> 00:21:29,639 | see anybody teaching with that type of timeframe. But everything that I teach is fractal, because it's the same price, whether you're looking at it from a weekly |
| 114 | 00:21:29,639 --> 00:21:39,929 | chart, monthly chart, three quarter comes our three month chart, a yearly chart, it doesn't matter. Prices price, what I'm going to teach you today is a secret |
| 115 | 00:21:39,959 --> 00:21:51,869 | of breaking down price, and looking for that price delivery continuum. So how to go in, like, if you ever watched me do a presentation where I'm recording my |
| 116 | 00:21:51,869 --> 00:22:01,739 | trades? If the comment sections are open, or if I share it on Twitter, most of the time, you'll see a handful of folks come and say, Why did you pick that |
| 117 | 00:22:01,739 --> 00:22:08,039 | timeframe? And why didn't you trade this timeframe? Or why didn't you trade that timeframe, I'm going to answer that for you today. And that way, you'll know |
| 118 | 00:22:08,039 --> 00:22:19,499 | what timeframe you're going to be looking at, okay? Some of the lessons today won't be so impactful for you. Because of where you are in your learning. If |
| 119 | 00:22:19,499 --> 00:22:27,329 | you're brand new, a lot of this stuff is gonna go right over your head. If you stick with this new study it I promise three months from now, if you come back |
| 120 | 00:22:27,329 --> 00:22:35,159 | to this presentation, and you watch it, you're gonna swear that I added something new. But it's just because your focus is on things that aren't |
| 121 | 00:22:35,159 --> 00:22:44,369 | important to you at the time, that I believe I believe are more paramount and most important thing is, is understanding where price is gonna go. So the |
| 122 | 00:22:44,369 --> 00:22:54,809 | selling point I gave to my students, they would come with me one on one, they would spend a whole entire week with me Monday through Friday. And we would be |
| 123 | 00:22:55,769 --> 00:23:08,639 | at the charts live. When the market opened up. I would show them bonds, and s&p. That's it. That's all we're talking about. And I would give them the previous |
| 124 | 00:23:08,639 --> 00:23:17,519 | week, I would say okay, here's what's going to do, this is where it's gonna go to. And we'll cover it next week. Think about that. |
| 125 | 00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:30,000 | And treat it like what I gave you on the 13th of this week in a live stream. I talked about very specific points of reference in price for the dollar, euro |
| 126 | 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:45,150 | dollar, POUND DOLLAR, gold, NASDAQ and ES and Dow futures. So I'm going to go through those individually. And kind of like it'll be somewhat of a review. But |
| 127 | 00:23:45,150 --> 00:23:54,300 | I'm going to teach also the main takeaways and what you're supposed to do with this information because it's not like a soul. It's unfortunate I get new people |
| 128 | 00:23:54,300 --> 00:24:04,110 | all the time on Twitter. And because they don't know me, they know my personality on how I teach when I show examples, and we'll cover the reasons why |
| 129 | 00:24:04,110 --> 00:24:14,160 | I took the naztech trade in detail also for those that are asking from yesterday's trading. Post FOMC not when I'm going to teach you how to trade CPI. |
| 130 | 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:24,240 | Today, I'm going to teach you how to trade FOMC I'm going to teach you how to trade Non Farm Payroll Friday. That's Mythbusters ICT edition today to we're |
| 131 | 00:24:24,330 --> 00:24:33,360 | removing all the talking points that people like to use to detract you from trying to study with me. I teach you to avoid trying to trade ahead of CPI, I |
| 132 | 00:24:33,360 --> 00:24:45,240 | teach to try to try to teach you to stay away from trying to treat ahead of FOMC and ahead of Non Farm Payroll. I have done many examples of me Trading Post FOMC |
| 133 | 00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:55,980 | post CPI post Non Farm Payroll, I've done years of that my students that were with me every single day in private mentorship for years, saw me explain where I |
| 134 | 00:24:55,980 --> 00:25:04,080 | think it was gonna go and watch it happen. So it's not that I'm trying to prevent you or teach you that no one can make money on those days. It's because |
| 135 | 00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:15,660 | I'm assuming, when you're watching, you aren't a new, I'm sorry, you're a new trader, that your experience is very small. You don't know what you're doing. So |
| 136 | 00:25:15,690 --> 00:25:23,970 | I'm trying to protect you from yourself. Because I was my worst enemy. And you're your worst enemy right now. And you don't realize it. But you are. So if |
| 137 | 00:25:23,970 --> 00:25:34,560 | you listen to me, I'm talking, I'm trying my best to try to give you everything in the perfect proper order, how you're going to develop, because I've done this |
| 138 | 00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:43,320 | for a long time. And I already know what the questions you're going to ask me. But many of the questions you're going to ask her that's coming up. In normal |
| 139 | 00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:52,560 | development is already in the videos, it's on my YouTube video channel. It's, it's layered across lots of time, because this can't be learned real quick. |
| 140 | 00:25:53,460 --> 00:26:00,300 | Because you're going to discover what you think you're going into this the try to do, because a lot of you think you want to trade the silver bullet. A lot of |
| 141 | 00:26:00,300 --> 00:26:10,470 | you came in, think you're going to trade optimal trade entry, but you discovered the 2022 model. And that that makes sense to you. So right now your initial |
| 142 | 00:26:10,470 --> 00:26:20,340 | expectations, you're probably going to lose that maybe in this discussion today. And you may develop a better focus on what is it you want to do. And that's, |
| 143 | 00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:28,110 | that's a success for me and you, if the if you arrive at TED today, that's a success. That's a good use of your time today. But I promise you, if you take |
| 144 | 00:26:28,110 --> 00:26:39,180 | good notes, not just simply watch me take good notes. And here's what I want you to do. While you're listening to me today, don't try to write down every single |
| 145 | 00:26:39,180 --> 00:26:48,180 | point that I'm trying to cover, when I'm talking about FOMC and how to trade debt or trading CPI. Or if I'm talking about silver bullets, fair value gaps, or |
| 146 | 00:26:48,180 --> 00:26:59,010 | whatever that topic is, right that that topic or focus point. And where I am in the minute marker, or our marker on the playback, all I gotta do is hover over |
| 147 | 00:26:59,010 --> 00:27:07,290 | top of the the little time thing at the bottom of this video, and it'll tell you where you are when I'm talking about it. And it makes it easier for you to go |
| 148 | 00:27:07,290 --> 00:27:16,290 | back in and dig into that, that's a good note taking, because then you can go back and go in and get the real nitty gritty to it. And I'm going to talk a lot |
| 149 | 00:27:16,290 --> 00:27:25,230 | about it in detail. So it's important you do that otherwise, watching alone is not gonna be enough. And I know get to the point gets out here. Alright, so |
| 150 | 00:27:25,230 --> 00:27:42,990 | let's go over to the dollar index, right. And this is a weekly chart. And I shared all this business on the 13th. I added this little area in here. This is |
| 151 | 00:27:42,990 --> 00:27:55,830 | a fair value gap. And I have to be careful when I'm talking because I noticed in the Thirteenth's live stream. When I was referring to certain things, my cursor |
| 152 | 00:27:55,830 --> 00:28:05,820 | wasn't really where I wanted to be when I was making points, I'm trying to make a conscious note of making sure I have my cursor where I want to talk about so |
| 153 | 00:28:05,850 --> 00:28:22,860 | where I have my cursor near that candles high and the specific close is what I'm looking at, for that range. To that candles low, okay, the candle to the left of |
| 154 | 00:28:22,860 --> 00:28:36,120 | this one, this one here, that body of that candle that is encapsulated between the range of this, this candles low here, that makes the high of the fair value |
| 155 | 00:28:36,120 --> 00:28:52,380 | go. This candles, pie or clothes, and I just dropped it there, it's so close, it doesn't make a difference. That candle is high. And our closing point represents |
| 156 | 00:28:52,380 --> 00:29:02,520 | the low of the fair value. The shaded area is highlighting this particular candles body, not the entire body of the candle, just the range that's been |
| 157 | 00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:15,210 | shaded here. Okay, between those two reference points. That is considered by my definition that I call it a fair value got its classification is a by side |
| 158 | 00:29:15,540 --> 00:29:25,680 | imbalance LSI inefficiency, meaning that the delivery of price was on the upside. So think about a paint roller. Okay, and I've used this analogy before, |
| 159 | 00:29:26,100 --> 00:29:33,510 | if you wanted to paint a wall in your home, and you'll you apply the paint to the roller, any apply that roller to the wall. Okay, you're getting that |
| 160 | 00:29:33,510 --> 00:29:46,560 | delivery up. If you keep doing that, from the bottom of the wall to the top, eventually paint will run out. And you'll see these little pockets these little |
| 161 | 00:29:46,710 --> 00:29:55,650 | little pits on a wall where paint didn't make its way to the wall. So you already know what do you have to do? You got to roll back down over top of that |
| 162 | 00:29:55,770 --> 00:30:06,210 | to fill in those little pockets of gaps where paint was not distribute did think about price the same way between these two reference points, that being this |
| 163 | 00:30:06,210 --> 00:30:26,130 | candles high. And this candles low that one candle right here, in that shaded area that's purple. There's going to be small inefficiencies in that range that |
| 164 | 00:30:26,130 --> 00:30:38,040 | shaded in purple. The easiest way that to simplify it is, we don't need to know yet where those small little pockets are on a lower timeframe because this is a |
| 165 | 00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:52,440 | weekly candlestick. So inside that range, that range I'm highlighting here with my cursor, somewhere along the line in that very week of data. There are gaps in |
| 166 | 00:30:52,440 --> 00:31:05,460 | efficiencies. We don't need to know exactly where they are. But we can identify that range right here as soon as this as soon as that candle closes. And we |
| 167 | 00:31:05,460 --> 00:31:17,910 | begin a new week. That gap that's shaded in purple, we know that there's a likelihood that the market will want to at some future time want to reprice to |
| 168 | 00:31:17,910 --> 00:31:32,550 | that, that is not balanced. All it means is that shaded area it's purple. It's buyside imbalance. So the markets shown an imbalance meaning it wants to go up |
| 169 | 00:31:32,580 --> 00:31:42,450 | it did go up. So what is it inefficient is inefficient in the sense that it hasn't had a sell side delivery. Sell side is when price is being offered |
| 170 | 00:31:43,050 --> 00:31:54,720 | downward. But downpayment down close can have my down close candles or our black, my upclose candles or bullish candles or green for that purple shaded |
| 171 | 00:31:54,720 --> 00:32:09,330 | area here for that to be repriced, to and offset. The inefficiency of sell side because it's by side imbalance. It's imbalanced. It has to be balanced later on. |
| 172 | 00:32:09,420 --> 00:32:22,710 | And I'll tell you how it becomes balanced. But right now it what is it lacking. It's lacking cell side delivery that means a candle must trade down in between |
| 173 | 00:32:22,980 --> 00:32:37,890 | the high and low that purple range is defined by the two candles I mentioned here. This candle is high. That candles low. So in our mind, in my mind, as an |
| 174 | 00:32:37,890 --> 00:32:49,590 | analyst, I'm looking at this and thinking, Okay, well, we've seen a lot of back and forth price action all through here. Let me add a rectangle here to kind of |
| 175 | 00:32:49,590 --> 00:32:59,730 | like highlight because I knew I may or may not have my cursor exactly where I want it as I'm talking because the livestream. |
| 176 | 00:33:13,530 --> 00:33:25,770 | Okay, so inside that darker shaded pink area, inside that rectangle, notice how there was a lot of back and forth up and down price delivery. You see how it's |
| 177 | 00:33:26,010 --> 00:33:39,180 | create like a small little trading range in there. Where is there a break in all that back and forth movement, it's in that shaded purple area here. So up and |
| 178 | 00:33:39,180 --> 00:33:50,430 | down, back and forth. Think about that paint analogy all inside this pink area. If price was paint in the canvas, that is the background of my chart is the wall |
| 179 | 00:33:50,610 --> 00:33:59,040 | in that shaded area price has done a very good job of moving back and forth inside that pink shaded area. But it didn't do a very good job of efficiently |
| 180 | 00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:08,760 | offering cell side delivery in that little area right there. So what the algorithm does, it seeks those areas there because it's easily defined by |
| 181 | 00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:22,230 | arrays, old highs and lows that are separated across a spectrum of free 24 hour periods. Any separation between this timeframe or any other timeframe? I'm going |
| 182 | 00:34:22,230 --> 00:34:29,130 | to teach you that price delivery continuum today. So we can see from one timeframe down to the smaller timeframe. How did you pick that fair value gap |
| 183 | 00:34:29,130 --> 00:34:35,910 | and not this fair Vega, you're going to know all that today, okay, but you won't retain it unless you're paying attention and probably watch this video a few |
| 184 | 00:34:35,910 --> 00:34:47,520 | times. So we know that there is a strong tendency for the market to want to come back and reprice into these areas. Now let's take us into what I was mentioning |
| 185 | 00:34:47,550 --> 00:34:57,600 | on the 13th. For those that you want to go back and revisit you've already watched the 13th video I think it's a little less than two hours long. For the |
| 186 | 00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:05,220 | people that want to get right to the point. I'm going to help you Okay, you should watch the entire video. It's some wonderful information in it. But for |
| 187 | 00:35:05,220 --> 00:35:19,650 | those that want to just simply go right to the points for the dollar index on June 13 2023, price action lecture in market review, I was teaching on CPI, the |
| 188 | 00:35:21,060 --> 00:35:33,540 | minute marker, four minutes, you'll hear me talk about a price level of 102 point 705. I want you to think about what I just covered here on the weekly |
| 189 | 00:35:33,540 --> 00:35:39,360 | chart. Okay, I'm going to keep this just as it is here, and dropped down to a daily chart. |
| 190 | 00:35:48,000 --> 00:36:01,350 | So when I'm looking at price, I have all of this higher timeframe weekly perspective in mind. So if I were asked, which timeframe do I spend the most |
| 191 | 00:36:01,350 --> 00:36:12,450 | time on? It's the weekly chart. Now, why do I spend the most time on the weekly chart? Number one, as I taught my students one on one in the mid 90s. And the |
| 192 | 00:36:12,450 --> 00:36:21,420 | way I teach my students in mentorship, and the way I've taught and shared in those mentorship lectures on my Youtube, don't buy people pirating my stuff and |
| 193 | 00:36:21,450 --> 00:36:28,920 | trying to sell it to you, it's been made available to you on this YouTube channel for free. Go and study it at your leisure go your own pace, there's no |
| 194 | 00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:40,440 | rush, I'm not taking the videos down in November, they're staying on that premise of how I go into the marketplace, and what I'm looking for, on the |
| 195 | 00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:49,620 | weekend, usually either on a late Friday evening, once my whole family goes to bed, and they've turned down for the night. I don't sleep like a normal person. |
| 196 | 00:36:49,650 --> 00:37:01,620 | So I do a lot of study really, really late night or early in the morning before they wake up. Or if I don't get that I do it on a Saturday. I look at the weekly |
| 197 | 00:37:01,620 --> 00:37:12,690 | chart, in reference to a monthly chart, a three month chart, a yearly chart, and I'm looking at it the same way I'm doing here. Okay. And I'm trying not to steal |
| 198 | 00:37:12,690 --> 00:37:21,630 | too much thunder from future lessons. But just know that what I'm doing here, I've done that with a monthly chart, I do it with a three month chart. And on |
| 199 | 00:37:21,630 --> 00:37:29,220 | TradingView it's really nice because if you go in one M takes you into a monthly chart just like that. |
| 200 | 00:37:35,730 --> 00:37:39,690 | And right away, you can see things that you may not have noticed before |
| 201 | 00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:55,110 | have a one month chart here. And right away. My long term students can see right away, they're thinking, wow, that thing used the volume and balance right there, |
| 202 | 00:37:55,290 --> 00:38:06,750 | the separation between this bodies, clothes, and this bodies open that monthly candle went right up into it there and then went lower all month. So I'm looking |
| 203 | 00:38:06,750 --> 00:38:19,860 | at those types of relationships. And you can look at three M, it'll give you three months of data. You can see how we're drawing down into this by ceneval |
| 204 | 00:38:19,860 --> 00:38:25,350 | themselves on efficiency, which is the same thing I just highlighted in purple on the weekly chart. |
| 205 | 00:38:31,020 --> 00:38:43,560 | That's this here, it's the same thing. So in my mind, I like to look for those first. And if there is no inefficiency, then I'm looking for liquidity. So in |
| 206 | 00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:52,620 | summary out, let me rephrase everything I've just said. When I sit down on the weekends, whatever time I'm going to be doing my analysis, the market is not |
| 207 | 00:38:52,620 --> 00:39:08,970 | trading. All of my analysis is done when the market is not trading. What I'm trying to predict, to anticipate not react to what I'm trying to predict and or |
| 208 | 00:39:09,150 --> 00:39:26,430 | anticipate is where is the present weekly candle Reaching for Higher or lower prices. If I see an inefficiency, like this, right here, that purple shaded area |
| 209 | 00:39:27,900 --> 00:39:42,960 | I'm expecting price to try to draw down into that. If this inefficiency wasn't there I would look for that low because that's where sellside would reside or |
| 210 | 00:39:43,350 --> 00:39:54,720 | consequent curtailment, which is the midpoint of this candles tail. So the this make sure that my cursor sit in here for a second before I say anything more. I |
| 211 | 00:39:54,720 --> 00:40:06,570 | would either look for that midpoint of that candles tail, which is consequent encouragement or I will use the low of that wick there. If, folks listen, if |
| 212 | 00:40:06,990 --> 00:40:17,280 | there was no inefficiency that shaped in purple. If that wasn't there, I would be expecting price to draw down. Now why would I expect that? What makes me say |
| 213 | 00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:25,440 | that, because we already hit our targets that are covered in the previous weeks. For those that weren't here, I was talking about how dollar was going to go |
| 214 | 00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:32,490 | higher. And we were going to use this shaded area here as an inversion fair value gap and treat it as something bullish to trade up into the weekly photo |
| 215 | 00:40:32,490 --> 00:40:42,780 | block, which is this opening price of this candle. Here, this candles opening price, that's the weekly bearish order block, it was acting as a target, then I |
| 216 | 00:40:42,780 --> 00:40:56,730 | said the mean threshold of that candle, which is the middle point of its body in here. That's the bearish order block mean threshold that was also a target. So |
| 217 | 00:40:56,730 --> 00:41:07,860 | once a hit that we want to see what's going to happen once a targets met, whether for the week, or a day, you have to get comfortable, grow real |
| 218 | 00:41:07,860 --> 00:41:16,650 | comfortable with to simply sitting still and waiting. move very, very slowly when you're trying to make money. And I learned this lesson from Larry Williams, |
| 219 | 00:41:17,130 --> 00:41:26,880 | it didn't make any sense when I first learned it or heard him say it, it took dozens of times of blowing out accounts. Not listening to advice. move slow when |
| 220 | 00:41:26,880 --> 00:41:36,660 | you're trying to make money. Move fast when you're trying to preserve it, protect it. If you want something paying out at you have done analysis on and |
| 221 | 00:41:36,660 --> 00:41:46,380 | you've been successful with it. Don't be in a rush to get another dopamine hit, because that feels good. That's a neophyte that's a brand new traders trap. You |
| 222 | 00:41:46,380 --> 00:41:55,530 | see many times individuals that are open about what they've done wrong. And they use social media like a confessional. father, I've sinned, look what I did, and |
| 223 | 00:41:55,530 --> 00:42:06,240 | I blew my account. Okay, you don't need to do that. Don't do that. Once you see something p&l, meditate on that, that there'll be a period of time between Where |
| 224 | 00:42:06,240 --> 00:42:16,680 | are you seeing something pan out, you're successful, and then really record how that felt for you. Because in the future, you're going to have periods where you |
| 225 | 00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:26,220 | do something wrong. And it may be a week long of that a series of doing things incorrectly. And if you don't Journal, the times that you've done it right, not |
| 226 | 00:42:26,220 --> 00:42:33,660 | just when you've done it wrong, but when you do it right. And you encourage yourself and you remind yourself that you follow the rules, the market panned |
| 227 | 00:42:33,660 --> 00:42:42,870 | out, like you were hoping it would, and you anticipated that you're conditioning your subconscious, to hold on to that as a positive experience. But when you're |
| 228 | 00:42:42,870 --> 00:42:54,360 | journaling, you're not recording your negative results in a manner that is condemning. You don't use language or terms, like Oh, I was stupid, or this |
| 229 | 00:42:54,360 --> 00:43:04,050 | stuff is never going to work for me. Never ever, ever, in your journal ever. record anything negative, you can still highlight the fact that you did |
| 230 | 00:43:04,050 --> 00:43:13,050 | something incorrect, but how you describe it, how you encapsulate that in your journal, your subconscious is gonna remember that because if you write down that |
| 231 | 00:43:13,050 --> 00:43:23,580 | you were an idiot, in that trade, I should have did this, I knew better, but I did this or that you're actually creating scar tissue. And there's no Alas, his |
| 232 | 00:43:23,610 --> 00:43:34,320 | there's no elasticity and scar tissue. You can't grow without a whole lot of tearing and pain. So to remove that growth of scar tissue on your subconscious, |
| 233 | 00:43:34,560 --> 00:43:44,160 | in the psyche that's required to do this as an industry, you have to make sure that you're conscious of what you're doing in your garden, your mind. Social |
| 234 | 00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:57,120 | media, is a very big factor in why people are not successful. So you think social media is going to encourage you. And it might initially, but what you'll |
| 235 | 00:43:57,120 --> 00:44:06,060 | find is, it's very toxic. And you don't want to bring that toxicity into your journal. Because if you put it in your journal, what you're doing is you're |
| 236 | 00:44:06,060 --> 00:44:18,180 | making a ledger of every single time that you have an engagement with your expectations, your model and price. And what price does ultimately is outside |
| 237 | 00:44:18,180 --> 00:44:30,570 | your control, but how you perceive what you are expecting and how you record that. That is paramount in how you will walk forward. By recording your negative |
| 238 | 00:44:30,570 --> 00:44:43,890 | experiences in a light that is devoid of any kind of judgment, no kind of condemnation, no kind of ridicule or criticism that is harsh. Would you want to |
| 239 | 00:44:43,890 --> 00:44:52,620 | do is record in your journal if you've done something wrong, say I'm happy that I can see that this is where I can improve on this is my area of study that I |
| 240 | 00:44:52,620 --> 00:45:01,200 | need to work on. Versus I got stopped out here and I didn't listen to what the Mark was telling me and I kept trading against it and Have you ever went into |
| 241 | 00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:11,280 | serious drawdown or I would have blew my account. They're all that stuff that you're putting in your journal, their memories, but they're happening in a level |
| 242 | 00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:25,860 | that's way deeper than just short term memory. You're, you're charging it with emotion and energy that you will tap into subconsciously. The effect happens |
| 243 | 00:45:25,860 --> 00:45:34,500 | when you like, when you're a child and you saw scary movie. You think every time the lights go off that event that what scared you in the movie, you think that's |
| 244 | 00:45:34,500 --> 00:45:44,250 | what's under your bed, it's in your closet. Okay. You're conditioning, it's called priming. So when you're journaling, you're priming yourself for future |
| 245 | 00:45:44,250 --> 00:45:55,530 | success. It's brainwashing yourself, it's really what it is. You are tricking your brain to only see the silver lining, which is critical. It's critical |
| 246 | 00:45:55,530 --> 00:46:03,840 | because it's easy to talk yourself out of this because it's highly technical. And nobody is going to cheerlead you, nobody's going to coddle you, you have to |
| 247 | 00:46:03,840 --> 00:46:12,030 | be able to find your own cheerleader inside you to keep yourself going. Because in the beginning stage of this stuff, it's very, very challenging, because you |
| 248 | 00:46:12,030 --> 00:46:18,810 | don't know where you're gonna go as a trader. And we're going to cover more about where you should go and how to determine that for yourself. But you take |
| 249 | 00:46:18,810 --> 00:46:30,510 | all this information from a higher timeframe, I do this, and I look at where price is likely to go. It's only going to go up for one or two reasons. Okay. |
| 250 | 00:46:31,260 --> 00:46:43,050 | Price delivery, price delivery continue, is the movement from where price is right now, to future delivery. So where it's going to be five minutes from now, |
| 251 | 00:46:43,230 --> 00:46:56,010 | a week from now, two days from now, two sessions from now. It's going up to take out buy stops. Or it's going up the trade into some kind of inefficiency, like a |
| 252 | 00:46:56,010 --> 00:47:07,680 | fair value gap. That is it. That's the only two reasons why price goes up. Period. It's not buying pressure. I'm sorry. But that's the truth. It does not |
| 253 | 00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:19,710 | go up because of buying pressure. It doesn't matter. How many people buy it. Perfect excuses. If you look at price and study volume. Okay, it's only volume. |
| 254 | 00:47:19,710 --> 00:47:29,940 | How many contracts does it take for a limit up move in wheat? Now that you probably trade wheat, you only need one contract traded? It opens up at the |
| 255 | 00:47:29,940 --> 00:47:40,950 | limit of move, boom, who can trade there? Nobody. It's locked limit. What was the what was the volume, whatever that trade was that marked it. That wasn't |
| 256 | 00:47:40,950 --> 00:47:51,180 | buying pressure. That wasn't buying pressure, it was only one transaction, it opened it up and boom. Nobody else can buy it. That's not buying pressure. |
| 257 | 00:47:51,180 --> 00:48:00,000 | Right. So that's that was the biggest wake up call to me when I was a commodity trader in the 90s. That's how I started by the way. I realized that volume is |
| 258 | 00:48:00,000 --> 00:48:11,790 | important. Yes, it does have a place in analysis. But too much emphasis is placed on that as a reason why price goes up or down it's not. price goes up to |
| 259 | 00:48:11,790 --> 00:48:24,060 | seek liquidity, if it's going up with liquidity is that by side liquidity by stops, okay. If it doesn't run for liquidity on that particular timeframe, it's |
| 260 | 00:48:24,060 --> 00:48:30,600 | going up for an inefficiency. That means a gap. A gap would be like that purple shaded area here. |
| 261 | 00:48:31,350 --> 00:48:45,690 | Or this. I don't know what that color would be called. We'll call it the pale orange. That gap between this candles low that candles lower here. In this |
| 262 | 00:48:45,690 --> 00:48:56,220 | candles high. That's what's been shown here in that little pale, orange shaded area that's noted as the weekly inversion fair value got that gap. In this |
| 263 | 00:48:56,220 --> 00:49:06,240 | purple one here. They are called inefficiencies. Think about the pain analogy I gave you when price is moving back and forth in a defined range. What's the |
| 264 | 00:49:06,240 --> 00:49:23,790 | Define range here, where your eye looks at price, just like I have it shaded here in pink price has moved rather efficiently. Inside that pink area, up and |
| 265 | 00:49:23,790 --> 00:49:33,210 | down. Okay, when price entered the low end of this pink shaded area now we don't know that pink shaded area is the range. What I'm saying is when I'm looking at |
| 266 | 00:49:33,210 --> 00:49:41,880 | price, I'm looking at how price was delivered during a period of time in whatever timeframe I'm looking at. So this is applicable to whatever timeframe |
| 267 | 00:49:41,880 --> 00:49:51,060 | you're looking at whether it be a weekly chart, a daily chart for our chart, six hour chart, 15 minute chart, second chart, it doesn't matter. Okay, it does not |
| 268 | 00:49:51,060 --> 00:50:04,920 | matter. What matters is where are the inefficiencies and where are the stops above old highs is by side or by steps below old lows is sell stocks or sell |
| 269 | 00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:13,440 | side liquidity. Those are the two things I'm looking for after my eye goes through the chart, and I'm looking for the inefficiencies with the first thing |
| 270 | 00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:24,030 | I'm looking for is inefficiencies. That's the first thing I'm looking for. Because that's the, that's the array that the algorithm reaches for first, it |
| 271 | 00:50:24,030 --> 00:50:34,590 | pans for any inefficiency, if there's no if there's no inefficiency, and we're in a premium, and we'd like to go lower, then it's gonna be looking for salsa, |
| 272 | 00:50:35,610 --> 00:50:47,490 | reverse that, if we are in arranging, we're in a discount. And there is no inefficiency above price. But there's a short term high, it's going to run for |
| 273 | 00:50:47,490 --> 00:50:57,960 | the buy side. That's what I'm doing on the weekly chart. So for the folks that are hammering themselves and beating themselves up, please teach bias, I just |
| 274 | 00:50:57,960 --> 00:51:08,520 | did, I just did. But what you're wrestling with is, you don't have time looking at charts, like I'm showing you here, you see this pink shaded area, how the |
| 275 | 00:51:08,520 --> 00:51:18,420 | market entered, it went up to this candles high, the next week, we opened up here, then we traded higher, up to this point here. Then the next candle or next |
| 276 | 00:51:18,420 --> 00:51:29,070 | week, we open we trade down and overlap all the way into the previous high. So there is no fair value gap formation whatsoever. In the candle I'm highlighting |
| 277 | 00:51:29,070 --> 00:51:36,930 | right now, notice that the candle to the left of its high in the candle to the right of its low, there is no separation, like you see in that purple shaded |
| 278 | 00:51:36,930 --> 00:51:44,790 | range. That's a fair value gap. There is no fair value gap between the candle I'm highlighting here with my cursor, using the candle to the left and the |
| 279 | 00:51:44,790 --> 00:51:55,770 | candle to the right. So what is actually happening there, the price is going up and down, up and down. That's like that wall being painted very efficiently. Is |
| 280 | 00:51:55,770 --> 00:52:08,190 | there any inefficiency there? No. So at that time, when we start on this week, we open, we rally up, make the high, and then we close after making a low here. |
| 281 | 00:52:08,310 --> 00:52:23,640 | So there's been a lot of delivery, up and down in between the range high of this week. And the close of this candle here. Now why am I picking that close? It's |
| 282 | 00:52:23,640 --> 00:52:32,610 | because I'm showing you how prices reacted in here and why I was telling you on the 13th in a live stream. That can't be cherry picked, it was told to everybody |
| 283 | 00:52:32,610 --> 00:52:44,430 | watching it that I want to see dollar reach lower. Okay, and we haven't even got off the weekly chart yet. I'm teaching what I'm looking at. And this is why I'm |
| 284 | 00:52:44,430 --> 00:52:53,130 | trying to tell you, I spend the majority of my time on the weekly chart. I'm looking at how price delivered. Think about what I'm showing you here, and how |
| 285 | 00:52:53,130 --> 00:53:11,850 | that relates to this area right over here. Think about that rain here. That same idea. We can apply it to over here. I promise you I'm taking you somewhere even |
| 286 | 00:53:11,850 --> 00:53:20,010 | though if you think you don't know what your understanding and confusion is probably peaking right now. Just keep staying with it. I promise it'll make |
| 287 | 00:53:20,010 --> 00:53:32,670 | sense as I'm going. Same thing here, price opens up trades higher, back and forth delivery, all that to the high back and forth. And then we leave it so |
| 288 | 00:53:32,700 --> 00:53:42,630 | before this broke down, is there any efficiency over here? Below this pink shade? Berries, or any efficiency and efficiency would be like this, this candle |
| 289 | 00:53:42,630 --> 00:53:53,190 | here? How has that separation between the candles high to the left of it and the candles low? To the right of it? Does that occur? Or form anywhere underneath |
| 290 | 00:53:53,190 --> 00:53:56,490 | this pink shaded area in all this? Do you see that? |
| 291 | 00:54:03,990 --> 00:54:19,860 | Yes, right here. I'm just gonna use a short little trendline. I promise you folks, this is the stuff you're looking for. Even though you may not feel like |
| 292 | 00:54:19,860 --> 00:54:31,110 | it's important right now or it doesn't make any sense. I'm going to take you lightyears ahead most of everybody else out there today. So there's a gap there. |
| 293 | 00:54:31,800 --> 00:54:39,960 | So I would take like this rectangle here. I would highlight this, but I'm only showing it as a small little section with the rectangle not being here, but to |
| 294 | 00:54:39,960 --> 00:54:50,040 | simply using the trendline sections. So we have an inefficiency here. So when the market leaves this range, it's in a premium relative to the low and where it |
| 295 | 00:54:50,040 --> 00:54:59,490 | traded to. It's in this range, consolidating it leaves it. where's it gonna go? Well, there's several things, you can use the consequent encroachment of this |
| 296 | 00:54:59,520 --> 00:55:15,300 | wick midpoint of that, then you have a gap here that this traded down into but left the majority of the gap still untouched, right? So when it drops here price |
| 297 | 00:55:15,300 --> 00:55:25,080 | is going to want to trade into this area here. Does it do so? Yes. And again, that would be bias that would be biased for that particular week for the dollar. |
| 298 | 00:55:25,350 --> 00:55:33,420 | What do you think that that would mean for you forex traders that want to trade POUND DOLLAR? What would you anticipate that week? This week? I'm highlighting |
| 299 | 00:55:33,420 --> 00:55:42,960 | right here, how would you use that information, you would go into your charts and back test any long positions during the London Open between two o'clock and |
| 300 | 00:55:42,960 --> 00:55:51,030 | five o'clock in the morning, New York local time, you would look at your am session kill zone, the New York kill zone between seven o'clock in the morning |
| 301 | 00:55:51,030 --> 00:56:01,650 | and nine o'clock in New York local time. You would look for the model 22. And two, you would look for optimal trade entries. You could look for silver bullets |
| 302 | 00:56:01,680 --> 00:56:10,410 | because silver bullets form in the kill zones between seven o'clock and nine o'clock. What I say yet, when teaching again to act to it's not limited to just |
| 303 | 00:56:10,440 --> 00:56:18,060 | index futures and 10 o'clock to 11 or two o'clock to three o'clock in the afternoon for index futures. If you're a forex trader, everything that I teach |
| 304 | 00:56:18,060 --> 00:56:31,290 | is applicable even though you see me predominantly teaching it in Emini, s&p and futures contracts, it's applicable to Forex. You just, there's subtle little |
| 305 | 00:56:31,290 --> 00:56:40,440 | rules that you have to worry about in time is the the the factor that's got to be considered. Because, yes, there are silver bullets, between 10 o'clock and |
| 306 | 00:56:40,440 --> 00:56:51,870 | nine o'clock in forex, yes. But they are really good ones between the seven o'clock and nine o'clock in New York open kills him, and between three o'clock |
| 307 | 00:56:51,870 --> 00:57:03,780 | and five o'clock on an open Kilson. They're there every day, every single day, you have a reason for you to find a setup. Now. Again, that is not an invitation |
| 308 | 00:57:03,780 --> 00:57:16,560 | for you to go in and try to trade every single day. Okay. So I want you to think about how the market moves in these ranges. This is a bounced price range. Why |
| 309 | 00:57:16,560 --> 00:57:25,440 | is that a balanced price range? Because the market has moved up and down within it, and then it left the range. So if we're going to leave the range, what is |
| 310 | 00:57:25,440 --> 00:57:32,580 | the algorithm, let's make an argument for a sake of folks that don't want to believe there's an algorithm that controls pricing, there's no amount of buying |
| 311 | 00:57:32,580 --> 00:57:39,900 | and selling pressure that's going to change that market is going to go where the market is going to go. It's predetermined, your daily high and low is |
| 312 | 00:57:39,900 --> 00:57:49,890 | predetermined, whether you like it or not, it is what it is. Okay. How can we determine where that likely higher low is going to form? Or where would it |
| 313 | 00:57:49,890 --> 00:57:59,460 | likely reach to start it on these higher timeframe charts? And if we know that we can see prices likely to want to expand lower, think about because we're on |
| 314 | 00:57:59,460 --> 00:58:10,530 | what chart? What timeframe up here, weekly. So my analysis, everything I'm doing on the weekend, when the markets are not trading. I'm trying to determine what's |
| 315 | 00:58:10,530 --> 00:58:20,340 | the strongest directional bias that can be derived by looking at the weekly chart, what is it likely to be reaching for on a weekly candlestick chart, it's |
| 316 | 00:58:20,340 --> 00:58:33,270 | going to either be reaching up for buy stops, or it's going to be reaching up for a fair value gap above where the market is right now. If it's likely to go |
| 317 | 00:58:33,270 --> 00:58:43,200 | lower, than I believe it's going down to a fair value gap below current market price. Or it's going to go down to reach for sell side liquidity below some old |
| 318 | 00:58:43,200 --> 00:58:53,700 | low that is not complicated folks. These things on your chart, they're not hiding from you. They've been in plain sight. You just never been told to look |
| 319 | 00:58:53,700 --> 00:59:02,310 | at it this way. Because you're trying to apply indicators and all these things. And frankly, you know, when you look at it like this, you should be able to see |
| 320 | 00:59:02,310 --> 00:59:12,030 | it really quick. You're seeing it when I'm looking at the chart like this, my eye jumps real quick to inefficiencies. My eye jumps to that my I jumped to |
| 321 | 00:59:12,030 --> 00:59:30,750 | that. That I'm probably moving faster than the live stream can keep up and and obviously the gap than it is should in every high every weekly candlestick high |
| 322 | 00:59:30,750 --> 00:59:47,640 | and low is a factor as well. They're going to be used again. They don't just get used one time and they expire. Okay, so I teach there's a 60 day look back and |
| 323 | 00:59:47,940 --> 01:00:03,960 | the highest form of precision or highest form of accuracy in terms of my key levels. I do Finally, with within that 60 day range, and it's 60 market days, |
| 324 | 01:00:03,960 --> 01:00:12,360 | not 60 calendar days, obviously. But it's looking back 60 days. So what I'm looking for is the highest high and the lowest low in the last 60 days. I'm |
| 325 | 01:00:12,360 --> 01:00:20,160 | looking for inefficiencies in the last 60 days, whether it be premium or discount, that means a fair value get like that purple one here was before we |
| 326 | 01:00:20,160 --> 01:00:29,640 | traded down here, in the beginning of the week, the dollar index was up here. And on the 13th, I explained that I felt like we would draw down, I'm teaching |
| 327 | 01:00:29,640 --> 01:00:38,850 | the part that was not made available to you on the 13th live stream. Okay, so I'm filling in that gap of insight that wasn't made available in that |
| 328 | 01:00:38,850 --> 01:00:46,650 | presentation, but this is the logic that went behind it. So let me take this off, and we'll drop down finally into a daily chart. |
| 329 | 01:00:57,030 --> 01:01:11,430 | Okay, so here's the daily chart. And let me take all this business off because they're all distractions. And I want you to focus only on the things that are |
| 330 | 01:01:11,430 --> 01:01:26,700 | making a point about Alright, so this inversion fair Vega was an old gap. Notice that it does not look like a gap on a daily chart where it did look like it on a |
| 331 | 01:01:26,700 --> 01:01:40,080 | weekly let me just for completeness sake, drop back up to a weekly chart. That separation from this candles low. And that candles high the candle to the left |
| 332 | 01:01:40,080 --> 01:01:52,740 | of that it's only sell side delivery. It's a sell side imbalance. By side inefficiency, sippy si BI is a fair value gap with the classification is a sippy |
| 333 | 01:01:53,070 --> 01:02:02,940 | meaning that some future time the market is going to trade up and deliver price on the upside. So it's offering by side delivery. We see that happen here on |
| 334 | 01:02:02,940 --> 01:02:13,470 | this candle. But I said that we would treat that as a inversion forbade go back and look at all the presentations and commentary around it at the time. But and |
| 335 | 01:02:13,470 --> 01:02:28,320 | when the 13th of this week, June 13 2023, I said that we would look for this old gap. Okay, this is what separates me from folks like Chris Laurie, where they |
| 336 | 01:02:28,320 --> 01:02:40,800 | look at inefficiency. And then he'll tell you, it's done. That's his terms. It's done. It's not meant to be disrespectful. But when I tell people, you can learn |
| 337 | 01:02:40,800 --> 01:02:47,520 | how to read price action with Chris Laurie, if you don't like me, that's that's fine. But you won't learn what I'm teaching from Chris Laurie, that you can |
| 338 | 01:02:47,520 --> 01:02:56,790 | learn how to see inefficiency. And the price I didn't learn inefficiency from from Chris Laurie. Okay. I was trading before Chris Laurie. But long story |
| 339 | 01:02:56,790 --> 01:03:08,790 | short, this whole business of inefficiencies. We can use them as real dynamic support resistance. Because that's in fact really how the algorithm refers back |
| 340 | 01:03:08,790 --> 01:03:18,660 | to them. Meaning this, when I look at this range, this shaded area, it doesn't look like a fair value gap on a daily chart. Whereas that is a fair pay gap. You |
| 341 | 01:03:18,660 --> 01:03:27,900 | see that right there? Look, look where I have my cursor at right here on this candle here. Go up that candle I'm laying my cursor on top of to the left of it |
| 342 | 01:03:27,930 --> 01:03:38,370 | that candles low here and the next candle to the right of this one. That candles high. That is a fair idea. It is a city so it's an unbalanced by some |
| 343 | 01:03:38,370 --> 01:03:49,320 | inefficiency. Notice that that is not what you see inside of the shaded area here. That was the weekly inversion fare Rekha. So the price delivery continuum |
| 344 | 01:03:49,320 --> 01:03:59,850 | is when you have these higher timeframe in efficiencies, regardless of whatever timeframe it is, when you drop down to a lower timeframe, you cannot ignore or |
| 345 | 01:03:59,850 --> 01:04:12,000 | forget the impact that those higher timeframe inefficiencies will have on the lower timeframe. The lower timeframes you can use for precision, like refining |
| 346 | 01:04:12,000 --> 01:04:23,310 | risk in in making it much smaller, so larger positions can be assumed. That's not to say that you take on larger risk. But let's just say for sake of argument |
| 347 | 01:04:23,310 --> 01:04:35,910 | that you want to use a 1% risk model, that means whatever your equity is in your account, times that by 1%, whatever that amount is, you can look at a range from |
| 348 | 01:04:35,910 --> 01:04:43,170 | where you think you're going to get into the entry point. And where you don't want to define your stop loss. And whatever that amount is, you divide that by |
| 349 | 01:04:43,170 --> 01:04:53,640 | the 1% equity that you define at your maximum risk each one incur. Having that the math will tell you how many contracts or lots that you can trade and still |
| 350 | 01:04:53,640 --> 01:05:04,200 | be within that 1%. Using lower timeframe charts, helps you define that risk. rather small, I mean, watch me do this week where I was using less than one |
| 351 | 01:05:04,200 --> 01:05:19,500 | handle on index futures. You cannot do that consistently in forex. I promise you, I promise you, you cannot do that consistently in forex. The reason why is |
| 352 | 01:05:19,500 --> 01:05:29,850 | because Forex brokers, many times, you're trading inside their specific pool of liquidity. And they have the benefit of being able to open the spread on you. |
| 353 | 01:05:30,390 --> 01:05:38,820 | When you're trading index futures, you're seeing the same price, everybody sees, everybody's high is the same, everybody's low as the same. That's why it's a |
| 354 | 01:05:38,820 --> 01:05:48,990 | gentleman's market. In deference to the ladies that's not as snug against you, it says a more refined, professional market, it doesn't mean that you can't |
| 355 | 01:05:48,990 --> 01:05:58,380 | trade forex and use small its stop losses. But don't, don't fall into the trap that you got to do these ultra less than two PIP to pit one pip stop losses, |
| 356 | 01:05:58,410 --> 01:06:07,470 | because I'm telling you, if I ran a brokerage firm, and I was a fork, forex brokerage firm, I would open the spread all the time on all of you. And I'm |
| 357 | 01:06:07,470 --> 01:06:15,210 | teaching you, so what they want to do it to you. Of course, they're gonna do it to you, especially if you're if you're trying to trade size, and you get |
| 358 | 01:06:15,210 --> 01:06:24,270 | frustrated. And when everybody was trading Forex in the early 2000s, there was bucket shops all the time, and I got burned by several of them, and FX CM was |
| 359 | 01:06:24,270 --> 01:06:36,870 | one of them. Okay, and it's just they did it. They did things that were not good. And it's better now, obviously, but I don't ever talk about brokers. So I |
| 360 | 01:06:36,870 --> 01:06:42,960 | know some of you are hoping that I'm going to talk about what broker would you recommend, I don't do that I'm not introducing broker, it's for you to determine |
| 361 | 01:06:42,960 --> 01:06:51,690 | that. Okay, so I'm not in an affiliation with anybody, no brokerage firm new funding accounts, nothing. And that's the reason why I'm point blank, and |
| 362 | 01:06:51,720 --> 01:06:58,860 | sometimes not always the best person to talk about your company. Because if I don't like it, I'm going to tell you, but I'm not gonna sugarcoat something and |
| 363 | 01:06:58,860 --> 01:07:10,050 | say, Here, I have an affiliation with this company. I like now. Whatever I tell you is the truth. If it's good, I'll tell you, if it's bad, it's it is but I'm |
| 364 | 01:07:10,050 --> 01:07:17,820 | not trying to tell you to build any broker, they all suck. And they're all great. It depends on what your personal experiences. So there you go, there's my |
| 365 | 01:07:17,820 --> 01:07:29,010 | opinion. But these inefficiencies, these gaps for the high timeframe, you have to have them annotated on your chart. Now, in the future, you'll probably |
| 366 | 01:07:29,010 --> 01:07:39,060 | graduate to a point where I haven't just want a piece of paper, like I have a pad of a small little milk yellow pad that I work with all the time. And |
| 367 | 01:07:39,090 --> 01:07:47,400 | whatever market I'm following, I have those levels, notice what levels I'm talking about the highest highs and the lowest low in the midpoint of every |
| 368 | 01:07:47,400 --> 01:07:56,220 | inefficiency on a higher timeframe for that particular market. So we're looking at the dollar index. So it obviously is taking me more time to tell you what |
| 369 | 01:07:56,220 --> 01:08:05,130 | you're dealing with this chart, and what your spokes to focus on and what you're supposed to utilize. But once you understand it's like riding a bike, you'll go |
| 370 | 01:08:05,130 --> 01:08:11,580 | through the motions, and it won't take this long to get through it. But the majority of the time that your analysis will be done on the higher timeframe |
| 371 | 01:08:11,580 --> 01:08:23,700 | weekly chart, you'll be doing these things, looking at where is it likely to gravitate to now? rewind back to the 13th of June 2023. Earlier in the week, in |
| 372 | 01:08:23,700 --> 01:08:34,470 | the Livestream, I talked about how I felt that this shaded area here, the weekly inversion of your Vega would then now act as an inversion fair value gap for the |
| 373 | 01:08:34,470 --> 01:08:45,150 | downside. In other words, it would act as resistance. We want to see signatures in price, showing the willingness of the dollar index to go up to it. Treat it |
| 374 | 01:08:45,150 --> 01:08:57,840 | like a ceiling. Reject it, and send it lower. Now, I am not a support and resistance trader. I'm not a supply and demand trader. Okay, even though that |
| 375 | 01:08:57,840 --> 01:09:06,150 | that shaded area may quickly look like if you're someone that's traded with the same science, Online Trading Academy, you know, that stuff I get accused of |
| 376 | 01:09:06,510 --> 01:09:15,600 | using supply and demand all the time. It's not that, okay, I use very, very specific levels. And they would never consider that gap back there on a monthly |
| 377 | 01:09:15,600 --> 01:09:26,550 | chart ever again. They wouldn't consider it anyway, really. But this is what I refer to that shaded area, that pale orange range. I'm looking at the highest |
| 378 | 01:09:26,550 --> 01:09:39,990 | point of it, the midpoint and the low. There's three specific levels. They're not It's not ambiguous. It's not like here's a tree. It's a supply zone. Okay, |
| 379 | 01:09:39,990 --> 01:09:49,590 | that's wonderful. Where are you going to trade at? What level are you looking at? So from a |
| 380 | 01:09:52,410 --> 01:10:01,530 | I guess, a grade school perspective, supply and demand may help some of you maybe you have been profitable with it, but it doesn't give you a very specific |
| 381 | 01:10:01,530 --> 01:10:07,740 | level to trade on, you have to determine where you're going to trade at. So it's like here in this general area, let's try to find something that's a buy or |
| 382 | 01:10:07,740 --> 01:10:17,370 | sell. What I'm telling you is that algorithm itself will refer to one of those three price levels. Which price level do I use, which one is a hidden at the |
| 383 | 01:10:17,370 --> 01:10:25,350 | time of the day that I tell you to look at it. That's where time comes in. So when I'm teaching you, I'm teaching you how the algorithm works, how it delivers |
| 384 | 01:10:25,350 --> 01:10:33,360 | price, it operates on time delivery, that means everything every price run is scheduled. Sorry, I know, you've probably worked in industry for a long time, |
| 385 | 01:10:33,570 --> 01:10:39,420 | and you're probably cussing and laugh and saying this guy's full of shit. He cannot see you out here telling everybody where it's gonna go before it's gonna |
| 386 | 01:10:39,420 --> 01:10:48,480 | go there to the the infinite degree of precision that I'm showing. So I'm, I'm proving I can't take you, I can't take you somewhere on a field trip and say, |
| 387 | 01:10:48,660 --> 01:10:58,950 | here's where the algorithm is ran from, I can't take you to a place and say, here is where it's operating from. Okay, the only thing I can do is tell you the |
| 388 | 01:10:58,950 --> 01:11:06,780 | truth. It is there. It's running, it's delivering price all the time. It's completely manipulated, it's absolutely controlled, always. And you shouldn't be |
| 389 | 01:11:06,780 --> 01:11:13,320 | fearful that you shouldn't be upset about that, you should be thankful that that is an advantage. Because once you understand how it operates, you can exploit |
| 390 | 01:11:13,320 --> 01:11:24,090 | that they're not going to change it because the way that price is offered and how markets are traded, isn't going to change. That's never going to change. So |
| 391 | 01:11:24,090 --> 01:11:31,860 | there's no reason for you to worry about, oh, this is a fad. It's gonna, it's gonna stop working, because everybody likes to use ICT concepts. Folks, this is |
| 392 | 01:11:31,860 --> 01:11:39,930 | the market, the markets and until they do away with the markets entirely, this is going to continue to work. So put that aside, don't be don't be afraid of |
| 393 | 01:11:39,930 --> 01:11:49,440 | that stuff. You're wasting time worrying about things that aren't even a factor. So 30th of June, I said that I want to look for and anticipate rather, the |
| 394 | 01:11:49,440 --> 01:12:00,390 | markets going to go up into that shaded area. That's the weekly inversion fair value gap and treat that as a form of resistance and then gravitate down to I |
| 395 | 01:12:00,390 --> 01:12:10,800 | said this very candle right there. That down close candle? I told you it was a bullish order block. It's a change in the state of delivery. That's what an |
| 396 | 01:12:10,800 --> 01:12:20,490 | order block is. It's not every down close candle or every up close candle. It's not the things you see people talking about on YouTube, either. Many of the |
| 397 | 01:12:20,490 --> 01:12:30,090 | things that people are saying about my order block, they're trying to use supply and demand logic in it's flawed. That that's that's not that's not the same |
| 398 | 01:12:30,090 --> 01:12:47,340 | thing. Okay? It's not? I promise you it's not what's occurring here is at that candles open. Okay, that candles opening price was the only marker where price |
| 399 | 01:12:47,340 --> 01:13:00,960 | can be measured in this timeframe? Where price was offered down? Where was the next down close candle? Right there. So between those two down close candles, if |
| 400 | 01:13:00,960 --> 01:13:11,520 | we're looking for a sell model to begin, which is what I was outlining on the 13th of June? Where could we expect that to form the fair value gap that I've |
| 401 | 01:13:11,520 --> 01:13:21,960 | shaded and I told you on the 13th. It's an old weekly imbalance. So if we leave an imbalance, what was I teaching you on the weekly chart? The market can be |
| 402 | 01:13:21,960 --> 01:13:29,430 | efficiently traded back and forth, up and down. Think about that paint analogy. When you paint your wall, are you going to paint up the wall? And when the paint |
| 403 | 01:13:29,430 --> 01:13:37,050 | runs out of supply of paint on that roller, you're going to leave the areas where the paint didn't make it is going to teach go to somewhere else? I'm on |
| 404 | 01:13:37,050 --> 01:13:44,940 | the other part of the wall? No, you're gonna roll right back over top of it. Why? Because you want your wall to be efficiently painted, right? Well, when I |
| 405 | 01:13:44,940 --> 01:13:54,990 | look at price, I'm looking at where price has been where it went to recently. And was is there any pockets of inefficiency in there? And because I start my |
| 406 | 01:13:54,990 --> 01:14:04,350 | analysis on the weekly chart, why am I starting on the weekly chart? Because the whole weekly range is going to be predicated by what we anticipate on that |
| 407 | 01:14:04,350 --> 01:14:11,940 | weekly candlestick. What's it going to do is going to go higher, or is it going to go lower, and you only need to determine one of two things is going to go up |
| 408 | 01:14:11,940 --> 01:14:21,660 | for buy stops above an old high horse going to go up to an inefficiency, which is a fair value gap above market price. If it's going to go lower, it's reaching |
| 409 | 01:14:21,660 --> 01:14:30,420 | for some inefficiency, which is a fair value gap below price, which is what was being shown here on the weekly chart but I did not talk about on the 13th but I |
| 410 | 01:14:30,420 --> 01:14:42,360 | told you this candle is the waterblock I thought it was gonna reach down to and I highlighted that range right there. And I mentioned that there was a |
| 411 | 01:14:42,360 --> 01:14:56,280 | likelihood that we would draw down into that after we treat this shaded area up here as resistance. So we can take this idea and dig into the lower timeframes |
| 412 | 01:14:57,120 --> 01:15:09,690 | and see if there is any signal Here's that we can look at a lower timeframe, we'll look at an hourly chart now. I'll right away Look at that. So if you look |
| 413 | 01:15:09,690 --> 01:15:18,660 | at what we've done, here's the 13. Okay, so the Mark was meeting around in here, I said, I want to see price show a willingness to treat this, this gap here, let |
| 414 | 01:15:18,660 --> 01:15:27,990 | me go up one more time, because I want to make sure you're following along in this little area right here. Okay, I'm going to just draw one more rectangle, |
| 415 | 01:15:27,990 --> 01:15:40,740 | because that way, you can see our frame of reference this high, down to present market, right there. Okay, that shaded area here is this candle underneath my |
| 416 | 01:15:40,740 --> 01:15:50,880 | cursor that day, which is the 12 from the 12. And then the 13th, is when I gave you the analysis, okay, I told you it's a live stream, it was not a pre recorded |
| 417 | 01:15:50,880 --> 01:16:00,300 | video, I told you, I want to see it, treat that weekly inversion fair value got, which is this one here, which is anchored on a weekly candlestick chart. Right |
| 418 | 01:16:00,300 --> 01:16:11,670 | now we're looking at daily chart, you can track that by looking up here. So the one day as a daily. So in this range here. In my mind, I was seeing this |
| 419 | 01:16:11,760 --> 01:16:24,540 | delivery of price. This is what I'm anticipating, this is what I'm predicting. I'm not reacting to price. Okay, I see this forming. And I'm articulating that |
| 420 | 01:16:25,500 --> 01:16:40,050 | in the live stream of June 13 2023. So because I have this range now shaded when we dropped down to the 60 minute chart inside this area here, and scrub that |
| 421 | 01:16:40,050 --> 01:16:45,120 | little rectangle over to the 13th. And that would be the perspective. |
| 422 | 01:16:50,460 --> 01:17:06,360 | Okay, so what we're looking for is in this area here, did true or false, folks. Okay, you're judging me now? I put out my expectation I anticipated in this |
| 423 | 01:17:06,360 --> 01:17:15,630 | time. here before we close the week. I said later in the week going into Thursday and Friday, I believe. And I say this in the 13th live stream for the |
| 424 | 01:17:15,630 --> 01:17:29,070 | dollar index, I believe that we will likely draw down into this order block, which is that level right there? One or 2.705? So I'm going to tick this box off |
| 425 | 01:17:29,070 --> 01:17:42,090 | here so that we can see that this is where we're looking at. Did it use whether you believe there's an algorithm or not? Okay, did price use this shaded area as |
| 426 | 01:17:42,090 --> 01:17:53,820 | a means the dig into go up into and then repel it lower? I mean, I think there's sufficient evidence to suggest that what I was outlining, and anticipating |
| 427 | 01:17:54,000 --> 01:18:07,530 | prices doing that, is it not? It did it here. What time of day is that? Look at the bottom chart. That's Wednesday, June 14 2am. What time of day is that? In |
| 428 | 01:18:07,530 --> 01:18:16,650 | terms of ICT kill zones. That is the London Open kill zone. That's two o'clock in the morning to five o'clock in the morning in New York local time. Every |
| 429 | 01:18:16,650 --> 01:18:25,650 | single time you look at your time, references, it's always in New York local time. I don't care where you live. It's no disrespect to you where you're at. |
| 430 | 01:18:26,460 --> 01:18:37,080 | But the algorithm runs on New York time. The day the trading day is not defined by Wellington, New Zealand. Okay, I don't know where this idea came from. But |
| 431 | 01:18:37,350 --> 01:18:49,950 | it's it's straight up New York local time. As the way it is, okay. So everything runs on that if you keep your time relative to New York, in your trading you set |
| 432 | 01:18:49,950 --> 01:19:02,190 | up here you can see it's always set to New York. If you do that, you'll know when to anticipate when to anticipate when do these moves form? When do they |
| 433 | 01:19:02,400 --> 01:19:12,720 | begin? Where did the highs and the lows of the sessions begin and end within those time winners I've given you now, by itself, just knowing that the higher |
| 434 | 01:19:12,720 --> 01:19:23,130 | lows of the market in forex forms in the London session between two o'clock and five o'clock in the morning, that in itself is a huge advantage. Because if you |
| 435 | 01:19:23,130 --> 01:19:34,980 | can have a weekly bias determining that, okay, if we suspect that the dollar index is going to be bearish for the week to come and forget the economic |
| 436 | 01:19:34,980 --> 01:19:43,080 | calendar for a month because we're gonna get into that too. If we think that the price is likely to draw down into these levels here. Now I'm gonna take that |
| 437 | 01:19:43,080 --> 01:19:49,890 | purple shaded area off because that's the weekly fare i got that I did not mention, but I didn't need to do that took your attention right to that level |
| 438 | 01:19:49,890 --> 01:20:01,770 | there, which is the daily bullish order block. A daily bullish order block doesn't always mean it's an entry to go long. It's a Draw on liquidity, okay, |
| 439 | 01:20:01,770 --> 01:20:09,630 | it's a really it's a PV array that the market will want to reach into. Obviously, you can see that that order block did in fact cause a nice little run |
| 440 | 01:20:09,630 --> 01:20:21,420 | up, where to go up into look closely where to go into that same shaded area, that Oh, weekly fair value got the inversion of your Vega dimensioning of it |
| 441 | 01:20:21,420 --> 01:20:31,470 | being used as what resistance? So in here we're talking about it is likely to go up, we're gonna see it treated as resistance, does it? Yes. Does it go down to |
| 442 | 01:20:31,470 --> 01:20:42,810 | the level I talked about on the 13th? As a draw on liquidity or target? Yes. Then what does it do? It repels price higher? Again, it goes into what? Look at |
| 443 | 01:20:42,810 --> 01:20:57,150 | these three up close candle rate in here. See this in close? ICT? Why do you use the last candle on some examples, and other times you use the consecutive |
| 444 | 01:20:57,330 --> 01:21:08,280 | candles? Well, all of these are inside of this fair value got that shaded area, which is an old weekly fair value. If they're consecutive, like this, and |
| 445 | 01:21:08,280 --> 01:21:16,740 | they're inside that range, I'm going to use the entirety of all of that, because the beginning of this opening on this candle here in the next candle, the next |
| 446 | 01:21:16,740 --> 01:21:26,370 | candle, that's all one price delivery, for by side, it's delivering by side delivery. So that means there's movement up. So I want to refer back to that |
| 447 | 01:21:26,670 --> 01:21:35,040 | opening price right there. Because that starts the order block, and the mean threshold will be the middle of the low of this candle to the high of that one. |
| 448 | 01:21:35,550 --> 01:21:36,570 | And that will look like this. |
| 449 | 01:21:44,160 --> 01:22:00,240 | So we have the low of this candle up to the high mean threshold is one to 3.3 to four. Okay? So we allow this and folks we allow for price to trade to and |
| 450 | 01:22:00,270 --> 01:22:17,520 | through but not close, listen, not close, above mean threshold. So the wicks did damage, the bodies tell you the story. Look what's going on over here. See all |
| 451 | 01:22:17,520 --> 01:22:33,030 | that we'll get to that in a second opening price may drop this year. He hits differently when you know I've already talked about beforehand. I can't use a |
| 452 | 01:22:33,030 --> 01:22:40,440 | cherry picking analogy on it now. So here's me thresholds. So that's what I'm identifying here. But this level |
| 453 | 01:22:46,530 --> 01:23:02,640 | the opening price there. That is the change in the state of delivery. Meaning on the 13th of June, I stated that I want to see you want to study. If I have any |
| 454 | 01:23:03,000 --> 01:23:10,350 | validity behind these things, if it's not going to hold up. If it doesn't react the way I'm talking about in the future, then there is no algorithm that means |
| 455 | 01:23:10,350 --> 01:23:19,200 | that I'm a fraud, that means that there's none of none of these things should be even studied because it's all hindsight. Okay. So what I do is I tell you in the |
| 456 | 01:23:19,200 --> 01:23:27,300 | analysis where I think price is going to gravitate to, and then you as the student, you go back through price action, and you look for what pdra you like? |
| 457 | 01:23:28,350 --> 01:23:40,920 | What does that mean? What's What's that mean? What do you use for your setup? What's your multiplier? Is it the optimal trade entry? Is that way? Is that what |
| 458 | 01:23:40,920 --> 01:23:52,710 | you use to get into a trade? Do you use a fair value gap now? Do you use the 2022 model as your as your trade? Do you use breakers? That depends on what you |
| 459 | 01:23:52,710 --> 01:24:05,280 | feel comfortable trading. There is no listen, there is no better PD array than another one. Because not every single price run will have every single one of my |
| 460 | 01:24:05,280 --> 01:24:15,450 | PD arrays in it. Not every single price move that I'm trading has a breaker in it. Not every single one of the trades I'm entering is using a fair Vega. Not |
| 461 | 01:24:15,450 --> 01:24:24,090 | all of them are in our backbone or blog entry. Not all of them. Or when's it? When's the last time you see me talk about optimal trade entry. But you probably |
| 462 | 01:24:24,090 --> 01:24:34,890 | still trade them right? I'm teaching you a wide spectrum of opportunities for you as the trader to gravitate to whichever one makes the most sense to you. All |
| 463 | 01:24:34,890 --> 01:24:48,990 | of them are equally profitable. All of them are equally capable of blowing your account if you misuse them. So I'm a I'm a realist. I have 81 way to get into a |
| 464 | 01:24:48,990 --> 01:24:58,950 | marketplace. You don't need but just one. You just need one and whatever that one is. You stick with it until you get really really good with it and once you |
| 465 | 01:24:58,950 --> 01:25:06,030 | find consistency with it But if you want to graduate into something else and dabble into you trying to build another model, in addition to that one, you find |
| 466 | 01:25:06,120 --> 01:25:15,000 | consistency and profitability and you have at it, but don't try to apply all of them. That's what everybody does wrong when they come to my content, they try to |
| 467 | 01:25:15,000 --> 01:25:23,160 | apply everything to every single market condition. And that's not what I'm teaching you to do. Now, if you go to Tom Dick And Harry's Dolman men, |
| 468 | 01:25:23,370 --> 01:25:31,140 | mentorship, where they take my stuff, rebrand it, and try to condense it down to a five minute trainer video. That's, that's the perspective you're gonna get, |
| 469 | 01:25:31,170 --> 01:25:38,760 | you're gonna get like, a watered down approach to what it is I'm teaching, and you're not going to come to a real understanding of what it is that's available |
| 470 | 01:25:38,760 --> 01:25:52,830 | to you. These consecutive upclose candles is one order block, meaning that inside this shaded area, right before this market changed and went lower, my eye |
| 471 | 01:25:52,830 --> 01:26:00,930 | goes right to that opening price. Because I'm using all three of these candlesticks. Because it's inside of a range, I've already told you on the 13th, |
| 472 | 01:26:01,200 --> 01:26:12,180 | we want to treat that range as a inversion, fair value go. In other words, it's an area where the algorithm will go up. Spend some time in here allowing Smart |
| 473 | 01:26:12,180 --> 01:26:21,660 | Money traders that will see what I'm teaching you that isn't in books. They're using this frame of reference because they want to sell short here and buy at a |
| 474 | 01:26:21,660 --> 01:26:33,210 | lower price down with the order block is here. An order block is not orders. You can't see an order block. The way I'm telling you, you can't see that on level |
| 475 | 01:26:33,210 --> 01:26:43,920 | two. There's people who say Oh, level, it's not level two has nothing to do with the orders has nothing to do with it. Nothing. Okay. So Stop the bullshit. It's |
| 476 | 01:26:43,920 --> 01:26:53,670 | where the market changes its data delivery, meaning that inside this shaded area, we want to see the price go up into does it do it? Yes. And then once this |
| 477 | 01:26:53,670 --> 01:27:01,530 | candles opening price that is the beginning of these three consecutive candles and I'm using all three because it's inside the area I told you that define as |
| 478 | 01:27:01,530 --> 01:27:11,670 | the reason to anticipate price going lower from the beginning right. On the 13th of June. I said we want to see signatures that means evidence in price delivery |
| 479 | 01:27:11,790 --> 01:27:25,020 | in price action itself does price show a willingness to treat this shaded area as resistance does it want to send price lower when it enters into it where the |
| 480 | 01:27:25,020 --> 01:27:37,740 | low midpoint consequent curtailment and the high? We don't? Listen, we don't want to see the high end of the old fair value gap. If it's being treated |
| 481 | 01:27:37,740 --> 01:27:48,180 | inversion for your Vega. The better setups form if the high if you're looking at it as a resistance, we're using it as the beginning point or inception of a sell |
| 482 | 01:27:48,180 --> 01:27:59,880 | side delivery or sell program. We don't want to see the high traded to treat that like the same thing I treat a breakaway gap, which is a fair value gap that |
| 483 | 01:27:59,910 --> 01:28:09,480 | won't completely fill in. If it gives you that signature, which is what we're seeing here, as soon as price breaks below the opening price here and leaves the |
| 484 | 01:28:09,480 --> 01:28:21,420 | shaded area. That's an like a pale orange. Once it does that, that qualifies that right there as a bearish order block. Why? Because the state of delivery |
| 485 | 01:28:21,510 --> 01:28:33,210 | changes from by side delivery, then it crosses over the opening price there. Just because it crossed below an opening price of a series of upclose Kinos |
| 486 | 01:28:33,780 --> 01:28:45,900 | doesn't make it an order block the narrative behind where that order block resides. That is the imperative point that everybody is missing. That's why |
| 487 | 01:28:45,900 --> 01:28:53,520 | everybody has books and bullshit out there. They want to call mentorships and courses talking about this is an order block. You have no art you're making shit |
| 488 | 01:28:53,520 --> 01:29:04,320 | up. You're making it up as you go, you're on the fly you looking at something in hindsight trying to explain something in this shaded area is what I told you to |
| 489 | 01:29:04,320 --> 01:29:14,790 | look at it on the 13th. And then we look for signatures inside that range. What does that mean? Well, you have an order block here. You also have a breaker. |
| 490 | 01:29:18,720 --> 01:29:30,240 | There's a breaker there. High, Low, higher, high. Consecutive down close candles, same thing we're applying here, all these ranges here, push it forward |
| 491 | 01:29:30,240 --> 01:29:42,030 | in time, you're getting the same entry here. Stop above here. We're not trading the dollar index. But I'm trying to tell you that you can pick your own model |
| 492 | 01:29:42,030 --> 01:29:49,650 | and everyone or you can be trading differently using what I've taught and you're all going to find profitability. You don't need the same entries. The entries |
| 493 | 01:29:49,680 --> 01:30:02,370 | are the least important thing. I'm gonna say it again. Where you enter is the least important factor in consistency. It is the least Most important thing, you |
| 494 | 01:30:02,370 --> 01:30:14,790 | have to know this. Where is it going? Because if you can determine where it's likely to go to, and what is what I've outlined here in this beginning of this |
| 495 | 01:30:14,820 --> 01:30:33,090 | presentation today, you can find a myriad of entry points. When price returned back up into this low here, right there, you can be short. What would you |
| 496 | 01:30:33,090 --> 01:30:45,540 | anticipate this rejection block, which is the lowest down close, that's your first draw below it sell side. And then you can start doing projections on all |
| 497 | 01:30:45,540 --> 01:30:56,610 | this pressure on here lower to see if you want to dig in lower. It's Friday, it's already hit the mark here that are outlining called for on the 13th of |
| 498 | 01:30:56,610 --> 01:31:05,310 | June. You can use this as an entry going short. Well, look at that. Look at it did Michael it ran up here? Yeah, no. But you're trading with a higher time |
| 499 | 01:31:05,310 --> 01:31:15,090 | premise. Meaning you're entering here, where's the model call for for stop loss, it's got to be above that high. If you're using the last up close candle, the |
| 500 | 01:31:15,090 --> 01:31:24,480 | same thing, you don't get short here. But you can be short here, the stocks gotta be above here. We're not using the dollar index as a tradable vehicle. On |
| 501 | 01:31:24,480 --> 01:31:33,060 | this teaching, the logic that you're applying to whatever market you're trading, whether you're trading the breaker, which would have been a fail here, or here, |
| 502 | 01:31:34,200 --> 01:31:45,450 | price alone. Price alone those as that's the instances where price returned to the PD array. Now here is where you separate the men from the boys and alliances |
| 503 | 01:31:45,450 --> 01:32:00,060 | from the sheep time. Just because price went up to that level right there at two o'clock in the afternoon, are you factoring a great deal of emphasis on a late |
| 504 | 01:32:00,060 --> 01:32:16,260 | afternoon dollar? No. You want to focus on the relationships with $1 Stealing during key kills and dollar is going to be highly sensitive to Forex, s&p, |
| 505 | 01:32:16,290 --> 01:32:27,000 | NASDAQ Dow, it will use the longer term higher time draw of risk on risk off with $1. But sometimes sometimes this is where it makes a little bit difficult |
| 506 | 01:32:27,000 --> 01:32:27,630 | for some of you. |
| 507 | 01:32:29,430 --> 01:32:40,170 | The index can flex against that, that you don't see that with Euro and cable. Unless dollar has been manipulated, held and consolidation, which it's not been |
| 508 | 01:32:40,170 --> 01:32:50,550 | here. It's been allowed to move. gyrate move around. That means that your forex pairs can be free to move around and have a lot more volatility as well. So if |
| 509 | 01:32:50,550 --> 01:33:02,400 | there's a emphasis on dollar usage, in your analysis, just know that there is a much more impactful driver of price when you're using dollar when it comes to |
| 510 | 01:33:02,400 --> 01:33:15,870 | currencies. Longer term. Yes, dollar risk on risk off will eventually weigh on stocks. But stocks are also highly manipulated right now they shouldn't even be |
| 511 | 01:33:15,870 --> 01:33:24,000 | at these levels. None of these companies should be trading at these these multiples. It's ridiculous. But we have to stick with what the markets telling |
| 512 | 01:33:24,000 --> 01:33:31,770 | us if we were trying to make money. We're not trying to be predicting the crash. Okay. In my opinion, the market should have crashed dozens of times in the last |
| 513 | 01:33:31,770 --> 01:33:42,660 | three years. It should have. But it hasn't. And even though I know and everybody with a common sense knows that these markets in stocks rather, they they're not |
| 514 | 01:33:42,690 --> 01:33:52,350 | justified it at the levels are trading. But are we going to sit around an arm wrestle, which should be taking place from a practical sense, versus what can we |
| 515 | 01:33:52,350 --> 01:34:00,510 | take as an opportunity? Because we have to trade what the markets giving us as opportunity. And that's what I'm teaching you to do? Focus on what is available |
| 516 | 01:34:00,510 --> 01:34:14,550 | based on time. Now, we have the market run up into during Wednesday, at two o'clock, what's going on there. On Wednesday, we had another market event that |
| 517 | 01:34:14,550 --> 01:34:30,300 | day, the calendar that medium impact high tech news drivers, we can anticipate on that weekly chart where the the inception of the majority of manipulation |
| 518 | 01:34:30,300 --> 01:34:40,290 | will begin based on the calendar. So when we look at an economic calendar, we're looking at a medium, medium impact or a high impact news driver, something |
| 519 | 01:34:40,290 --> 01:34:49,800 | that's going to be many times use as a smokescreen. I'm not of the opinion. I've never really had this opinion anyway. But I'm not of the opinion that because |
| 520 | 01:34:49,800 --> 01:35:03,480 | it's a high impact news event that the markets moving based on information that is sometimes in You could study this as go back through history and look at the |
| 521 | 01:35:04,020 --> 01:35:12,300 | releases of the data. I'm not a fundamental trader, okay, I don't I don't consider the information that's being released at the time, I never even refer |
| 522 | 01:35:12,300 --> 01:35:20,640 | to it. I never look at what the numbers were. I've done it in the past when I was teaching mentorship, just to prove to them that sometimes the data will come |
| 523 | 01:35:20,640 --> 01:35:32,550 | out. And from a classical perspective, the data may be perceived as good or bad. And if it's suggested in historical terms, that whatever data that came out if |
| 524 | 01:35:32,550 --> 01:35:41,910 | it's beneficiary or a positive for that currency or that market, but then how many times has the market rejected that and traded down, and then they come back |
| 525 | 01:35:41,910 --> 01:35:50,610 | after the fact say, well, the market price that didn't, you weren't telling us that they already factored in that and priced it in, it's just an excuse, |
| 526 | 01:35:50,640 --> 01:36:00,600 | because these things are being used as a smokescreen. So I just use a high impact or medium impact news driver on economic calendar to time just like a TV |
| 527 | 01:36:00,600 --> 01:36:08,490 | Guide, you know, when time that the game is gonna come on, right? You go on there, and you look on your TV and say, okay, the Knicks are playing today, at |
| 528 | 01:36:08,490 --> 01:36:16,740 | this time, or tonight at that time, you know, the Superbowl begins at this time on this channel. The markets are delivering price the same way. I know it sounds |
| 529 | 01:36:16,740 --> 01:36:25,320 | crazy, I know. But that's how I'm accurate. I'm following the schedule of when price is likely to move. And you can time when these market moves are gonna |
| 530 | 01:36:25,320 --> 01:36:42,000 | occur. Just looking at the economic calendar. And blending in key times of the day. I've told you to focus on all New York local time. So two o'clock on |
| 531 | 01:36:42,000 --> 01:36:47,400 | Wednesday. Where are we at here on Thursday? What time of day is this? |
| 532 | 01:36:53,460 --> 01:37:03,270 | London Open. London Open typically forms what what did I teach? If you've been with me for a long time, between two o'clock and five o'clock in the morning in |
| 533 | 01:37:03,270 --> 01:37:11,610 | New York, local time, London, generally 70% of the time. And for the folks that like to do these little number crunching I have people in the past say, well, |
| 534 | 01:37:11,610 --> 01:37:19,680 | that's bullshit, I went through the number you're looking at every single week, you have to look at when the bias is suggested that we're going to entering a |
| 535 | 01:37:19,830 --> 01:37:33,270 | sell off. Okay, if we're in a position, and I've told you on the 13th, this week, I said that dollar is going to go here. We went there. Now your question |
| 536 | 01:37:33,270 --> 01:37:38,910 | is, and you're like, Well, how would you know that it wouldn't just reverse here and treat that as a long term bullish order. But I now just read your mind, |
| 537 | 01:37:38,910 --> 01:37:50,130 | right? You just dropped your potato chips that well, longer term perspective, we've already spent time reaching into premiums on that weekly chart for the |
| 538 | 01:37:50,130 --> 01:38:04,170 | dollar. We met multiple premium arrays as targets on the upside. And we've worked all of any inefficiencies out. And now we've worked into the discount |
| 539 | 01:38:04,170 --> 01:38:14,190 | arrays. So it's reasonable to anticipate that the dollar wants to go lower. If we still have time, it's Friday. And everybody that sees this low here that went |
| 540 | 01:38:14,190 --> 01:38:25,320 | long. They're trying to catch the bottom. And that's why you're seeing what we're seeing here. We traded down into this low deeper into the order block, one |
| 541 | 01:38:25,320 --> 01:38:37,230 | order block, let's go back to the daily for a second. This entire down closed candle here. That range is the order block. If we're bearish, we want to see it |
| 542 | 01:38:37,230 --> 01:38:45,060 | trade initially into the open avocados this change in the state delivery. And then we want to see it try to reach for the mean threshold. How we know if it's |
| 543 | 01:38:45,060 --> 01:38:54,810 | going to continue going lower is how we close after hitting mean threshold. That's part of the order block theory. If it closes below the mean threshold, |
| 544 | 01:38:55,110 --> 01:39:03,420 | chances are we're likely to see it when it continues going lower. If it were to go lower, we have a small little portion of this gap that's being shown from |
| 545 | 01:39:03,420 --> 01:39:19,050 | this candles high. And that candles low looks like that. So that little gap right there. That's small little area that's still exposed. So if we were to |
| 546 | 01:39:19,050 --> 01:39:28,530 | close below this middle of this candle that I'm highlighting here, that's the little shoulder block. We mean you're calling it a bullish order block and |
| 547 | 01:39:28,530 --> 01:39:38,940 | you're calling it low right? When it was up here, earlier in the week, it was a discount array, but it's classified as a bullish order block again, bullish |
| 548 | 01:39:38,940 --> 01:39:47,220 | order blocks are not always buying opportunities. They're targets and are also means of measuring order flow. If we close below the mean threshold half of that |
| 549 | 01:39:47,220 --> 01:39:58,620 | candles body if it closes below that is indicating that might want to still keep going lower into next week. If it does, where would it reach for sellside below |
| 550 | 01:39:58,620 --> 01:40:09,960 | this candles well I'm sorry. Below that candles well in into that small little inefficiency. And if it accelerates, we have another fear of a gap right here. |
| 551 | 01:40:10,800 --> 01:40:18,180 | The candle I'm pointing to is a fair value gap in the form of a buy side and sell side and efficiency. Look at the the candle to the left of the one I'm |
| 552 | 01:40:18,180 --> 01:40:30,990 | highlighting here, that candles high to the left, and the candles low to the right, that makes this affair Ivanka. I don't know what we're going to do over |
| 553 | 01:40:30,990 --> 01:40:39,150 | the weekend. This is why I don't I don't trade on the weekend. I used to trade over the weekend. So hold positions over. But because of the gap risk, what does |
| 554 | 01:40:39,150 --> 01:40:49,380 | that mean? Where we close on Fridays, and where we open up on Sunday can be dramatic now, because of all the things that's been going on over the last three |
| 555 | 01:40:49,380 --> 01:40:56,760 | years, and we're not going to talk about all these topics, but the nonsense that's been going on all around the world, you know, all the geopolitical things |
| 556 | 01:40:56,760 --> 01:41:09,420 | and health and welfare issues everyone's having to deal with, they have caused a great deal of gap risk. So most of your trading, in my opinion, should be |
| 557 | 01:41:09,420 --> 01:41:21,660 | settled, intraday, unless you are really, you know, comfortable with GAP risk. Even the restart is at 6pm. When there's a lull in trading, you know, four, five |
| 558 | 01:41:21,660 --> 01:41:28,620 | o'clock to six o'clock, if you're trading stock indices, sometimes those gaps can be a little bit jarring. And it can be a little bit more than you |
| 559 | 01:41:28,620 --> 01:41:38,340 | anticipated. Sometimes it's in positive, but sometimes maybe a negative. So I think if there's ever been a time in history where traders should be primarily |
| 560 | 01:41:38,340 --> 01:41:49,740 | focused on day trading, we're in this is the this is the the climate for that to be sleeping soundly at night. So anyway, I covered a lot here and I'm gonna go |
| 561 | 01:41:49,770 --> 01:41:58,590 | lower timeframe, we're gonna go to a 15 minute candlestick chart. And we're gonna take a 10 minute pause here. So right now at the time, it's 953 I went a |
| 562 | 01:41:58,590 --> 01:42:06,900 | little bit longer than the hour I apologize, but that's typical ICT and always over deliver. Let's come back exactly at 10 o'clock. It's not quite 10 minutes, |
| 563 | 01:42:06,900 --> 01:42:15,780 | but let's take a break and go Well relieve yourself. Refresh your drinks and good so your wife and husband you're learning something you can't wait to get |
| 564 | 01:42:15,780 --> 01:42:18,090 | back to it. So I'll see you in a few Minutes. |
| 565 | 01:48:33,900 --> 01:48:45,870 | Alright folks. I'm checking Twitter. Before I start talking, I want to make sure that you can hear me we've taken a couple minutes break. You guys can hear me |
| 566 | 01:48:45,870 --> 01:48:48,060 | just give me a five by five that audios back |
| 567 | 01:48:56,340 --> 01:49:15,540 | just checking to see if Twitter can confirm you can hear me thank you, Emanuel. Thank you folks appreciate that. Alright, so usually, I like to ask you all to |
| 568 | 01:49:17,010 --> 01:49:25,830 | give it a thumbs up and such. But if you like what you're learning here today, and we're not even close to being done, just give this a like, it doesn't cost |
| 569 | 01:49:25,830 --> 01:49:34,170 | you anything to do it. So quick little thumb, you're going to want to use this as a marker to go into your liked videos to find this one promises a whole lot |
| 570 | 01:49:34,170 --> 01:49:42,810 | of stuff in here you're going to enjoy. Alright, so back to the discussion that we just made our way into the 15 Minute candlestick chart for the dollar index. |
| 571 | 01:49:42,810 --> 01:49:53,700 | So obviously, I'm taking you through a very detailed, top down analysis of what it is that you look for, whenever I talk about where I think the markets going |
| 572 | 01:49:53,700 --> 01:50:03,660 | to draw to. And that's my experience in three decades of knowing what I've seen over the years, what the algorithm is likely to be doing unless manual |
| 573 | 01:50:03,660 --> 01:50:12,630 | intervention steps in, these are the things that we expect to see. And that's what makes what I teach. And when I share what I call it in advance, so accurate |
| 574 | 01:50:12,660 --> 01:50:21,480 | a lot of people that have odds against me because they're running a service paying paid service, something they're selling, or whatever. They'll say what I |
| 575 | 01:50:21,480 --> 01:50:29,520 | do is easy, anybody can do it, but they're not nowhere anywhere near as accurate. They don't call the levels to the degree, they don't have. The |
| 576 | 01:50:29,520 --> 01:50:41,340 | experience I'm sharing with you. And bond saying is if you listen to other people, and you haven't spent time here, seeing what it is, it's been shared and |
| 577 | 01:50:41,340 --> 01:50:54,780 | thought, you really aren't making an informed decision, you're just using someone else's opinion. And that's, that's the mistake, or I guess, trap of |
| 578 | 01:50:54,780 --> 01:51:03,270 | social media. So with that said, let's get into the nitty gritty here are so we have the dollar index on a 15 minute time frame, we've been talking about this |
| 579 | 01:51:03,270 --> 01:51:12,780 | weekly inefficiency, that was a weekly invariant inversion fair value gap, I stated on the 13th of June 2023, that we would look for signatures that this is |
| 580 | 01:51:12,780 --> 01:51:28,290 | being utilized by the algorithm for resistance. Now, when we look at the dollar for forex, traders, you're really going to be focusing on like the London Open |
| 581 | 01:51:28,290 --> 01:51:40,950 | kill zone, the New York open kill zone. And again, for the London Open kill zone, it's all New York local time. It begins at 2am and ends at 5am. Now, I |
| 582 | 01:51:40,950 --> 01:51:51,870 | personally, personally, I use 1am as a buffer. And to me, that kind of like cancels out any tomfoolery that would occur because of Daylight Savings Time, |
| 583 | 01:51:51,870 --> 01:52:01,020 | which I wish they would abolish it. I mean, it was a stupid thing to implement anyway, in some parts of the world didn't even use daylight savings time. But to |
| 584 | 01:52:01,380 --> 01:52:15,330 | remove all the, the uncertainty about time, I've always used my personal is 1am to 5am. Okay, that's the time. So that means any setup that I like to look for, |
| 585 | 01:52:15,450 --> 01:52:28,980 | can occur that early, which is kind of like the, the European Open. And then you have a two o'clock it's the London Open, but to and use, it closes up shop in |
| 586 | 01:52:28,980 --> 01:52:38,640 | the volume Peters off at 5am. And in between five o'clock in the morning to seven o'clock in the morning, I refer to that as dead time. Don't Don't, don't |
| 587 | 01:52:38,640 --> 01:52:46,350 | try to do too much anything in here. But I have taken trades as early as six o'clock in the morning, trading the New York session over the New York open kill |
| 588 | 01:52:46,350 --> 01:52:56,760 | zone, which is classically defined by seven o'clock in the morning to 10 o'clock in the morning. And you can look at seven o'clock to nine o'clock is that little |
| 589 | 01:52:56,760 --> 01:53:04,830 | sweet spot where the majority of your trades are going to form, buy or sell for forex trading between seven o'clock in the morning and nine o'clock in the |
| 590 | 01:53:04,830 --> 01:53:18,270 | morning. The London Open. I talked about this a moment before we took our first break. At seven o'clock, I'm sorry, one open at two o'clock in the morning. And |
| 591 | 01:53:18,270 --> 01:53:30,180 | five o'clock in the morning, New York local time. That is the ICT Monday open kill zone that if you know where the weekly candlestick is likely to draw to |
| 592 | 01:53:30,810 --> 01:53:42,750 | everything I've been talking about this point is how I do it. There is no shortcut version of it, it says the markets going to go up to a gap. Or it's |
| 593 | 01:53:42,750 --> 01:53:52,140 | going to go up to old high. If it's going to go up. If it's going to go down, it's going to go down to a gap below price. Or go below an old low. That's it. |
| 594 | 01:53:52,410 --> 01:54:02,550 | How you define which one it is what is it done recently? How has it traded? Is it leaving a range that we've worked multiple times back and forth. And it's |
| 595 | 01:54:02,550 --> 01:54:10,920 | been efficiently delivered and we left that range, chances are it's probably going to expand lower, reaching for an old low or inefficiency in the form of |
| 596 | 01:54:10,920 --> 01:54:21,210 | fair get fair value got below price. or reverse it. It's that simple. And what you're wrestling with is you're trying to bring other things that you either |
| 597 | 01:54:21,210 --> 01:54:30,450 | know you learned from somebody else, some kind of other indicator based idea or retail perspective, maybe supply and demand maybe led them to harmonic stuff. |
| 598 | 01:54:30,660 --> 01:54:39,840 | You're trying to bring that into this and see where you know, you can help your understanding by bringing that in, then that's the mistake. Leave all that stuff |
| 599 | 01:54:39,840 --> 01:54:49,350 | at the door. Like what I'm teaching is not complicated. It's either going up or it's going down for one of two reasons. And if you spend the time on the weekly |
| 600 | 01:54:49,350 --> 01:54:58,950 | chart to find that you can come away with what I've shared many times for years in the witness of hundreds of 1000s of people and they're watching it pan out |
| 601 | 01:54:58,950 --> 01:55:08,790 | and you're if you're new you're Now just discovering it. And I envy you because I know what it was like when I first discovered it, it's, it's crazy, it |
| 602 | 01:55:08,790 --> 01:55:18,210 | literally is mind boggling to see how much precision in everything is scheduled to like every price run that you see in price action is not a surprise. Unless |
| 603 | 01:55:18,210 --> 01:55:31,680 | it's a wartime event or some kind of event that would be destructive, we'll say it like that. Or a manual intervention coming in like a surprise rate |
| 604 | 01:55:31,680 --> 01:55:42,450 | announcement. It's happened. Those things, I'm not prepared for that. And because of that incurs risk. And that's why you have to always understand that. |
| 605 | 01:55:43,440 --> 01:55:50,400 | As good as my stuff is. And as good as anybody else's stuff might be, you know, people can show profitability and show statements and show live streams. And |
| 606 | 01:55:50,400 --> 01:56:00,840 | they can do this to that. It does not change the fact that any one of us, me, somebody else that's teaching selling courses, whatever, any one of us can be a |
| 607 | 01:56:00,840 --> 01:56:13,410 | victim of some unexpected event that can completely take everybody by surprise. And I use the analogy many times with the D pegging of euro in the Swiss franc, |
| 608 | 01:56:13,950 --> 01:56:25,050 | where brokerage firms immediately were made insolvent. And people lost their money. They lost money. Billions and billions of dollars were lost that day, |
| 609 | 01:56:25,890 --> 01:56:36,690 | because of that D pegging between the euro and the Swissy. So did anybody see that comment? did? Did I warn you in advance about that stuff? Chances are |
| 610 | 01:56:36,690 --> 01:56:45,900 | probably not. So that's real risk. And all of these markets have that kind of risk. So is it something you're mindful of? Yes. Is it something that paralyze |
| 611 | 01:56:45,900 --> 01:56:54,840 | you and never, you know, allow you to go in trade, if it's up for you to decide, okay, I don't tell people to trade with live money, you'll determine when you |
| 612 | 01:56:54,840 --> 01:57:03,090 | are comfortable doing that, I don't ever sit down and say you're ready to do it now. But I know the ones that aren't. So if you look at the range here, we're |
| 613 | 01:57:03,090 --> 01:57:15,240 | going to measure the high. Trying to find a point where I can lay it on the web, okay. So we can see that the highest point here, and it might not be the very |
| 614 | 01:57:16,020 --> 01:57:25,440 | pipit, I could care less about that. But the low in the high, I dropped the Fibonacci on that. And the only thing I'm using the Fibonacci for, is to show |
| 615 | 01:57:25,440 --> 01:57:35,670 | you the relationship of the three specific price levels that I teach my students to look at. So if we're looking at the high, okay, I'm trying to see what that |
| 616 | 01:57:35,670 --> 01:57:55,680 | number is. Okay, 103, point 445. The low 103 point 226. Okay, they may or may not be the actual high and low the weekly candles that are used to define that |
| 617 | 01:57:55,680 --> 01:58:08,490 | range. But I think this is close enough for government work. So the midpoint is 103 point 336. The midpoint of any gap, that mean a fair value gap, or a real |
| 618 | 01:58:08,490 --> 01:58:17,730 | liquidity void liquidity void would be like this little area right there. See, there's no there's no overlapping of any wick or candle body is the open here. |
| 619 | 01:58:18,540 --> 01:58:30,090 | And it closed here. There's no price data here at all. That's a real liquidity. That's a real gap. We refer to things like this here as a fair value gap. And |
| 620 | 01:58:30,090 --> 01:58:42,090 | this would be in the form of a buy side and sell side inefficiency. This is a real liquidity for any gap, whether it be liquidity void, or inefficiency, or |
| 621 | 01:58:42,090 --> 01:58:52,980 | like I haven't shaded here up here. They're measured from the highest high and the lowest low of that respective inefficiency or gap. And the midpoint is |
| 622 | 01:58:52,980 --> 01:58:57,090 | always referred to as consequent encroachment, meaning that |
| 623 | 01:58:58,470 --> 01:59:12,570 | as it starts to fill in and reprice to the higher low of these levels, as it encroaches, it's most likely to refer to the midpoint of the gap or inefficiency |
| 624 | 01:59:12,780 --> 01:59:23,220 | than the extreme high or the low. And that's the basis of why we'd like to see if we're bearish, we want to see the upper end of the inefficiency or gap |
| 625 | 01:59:23,490 --> 01:59:33,210 | respected and treated as a premium and not be dug into meaning. As I mentioned before we took our break. We don't want to see the high end of any inefficiency |
| 626 | 01:59:33,570 --> 01:59:44,970 | be retreated to if we're bearish if the market is really in fact, in a sell model. The best ones the strongest delivering obvious runners will always have |
| 627 | 01:59:45,000 --> 01:59:54,510 | this signature Hallmark part to it where the upper portion of it doesn't get traded to look at the bodies of the candles. We have just a little bit of |
| 628 | 01:59:54,570 --> 01:59:59,790 | movement above it here. But look at these right there. Right on the midpoint of that you think that's random |
| 629 | 02:00:00,780 --> 02:00:12,570 | ICT: When I talked about it on the 13th of June, in that live stream, I said, I want to see, does this show signatures in price action. That confirms it |
| 630 | 02:00:12,600 --> 02:00:22,950 | suggests that my assumptions by anticipating this level that's shaded in, in a pale orange, that that would be treated as resistance or a means of beginning |
| 631 | 02:00:22,980 --> 02:00:35,070 | short trades for smart money. And in targeting this level down here, which is the bullish order block on the daily chart. So in your mind, as a trader going |
| 632 | 02:00:35,070 --> 02:00:44,640 | forward, whenever I say things like that, where I say, I'm looking at this as a premium array, I want to see it be treated as a risk of resistance, and then |
| 633 | 02:00:44,700 --> 02:00:55,830 | enter a sell program. And I point to where I think it's gonna go right away. In your mind, you start thinking, okay, he just told me, where he believes with 30 |
| 634 | 02:00:55,830 --> 02:01:07,380 | years of experience, where it's likely to go. So I just told you bias, I cut through all the bullshit, I got right to the point, if I sat down with you, and |
| 635 | 02:01:07,440 --> 02:01:14,730 | taught you every single week, when I'm doing you'd like to, first of all, I would never get that we're still in dollar, we just finally made our way in that |
| 636 | 02:01:14,730 --> 02:01:23,790 | a 15 minute chart, it does not take you this long to do the analysis. But it does take me this long. And as long as it's gonna take the day for me to teach |
| 637 | 02:01:23,790 --> 02:01:30,750 | you what it is that's going on in my mind that make the decisions that tell you before it happens, and it happens in your chart later on perfectly. You want to |
| 638 | 02:01:30,750 --> 02:01:37,740 | know, you show up, you want to ask me these questions, and I'm giving you the answers. Don't bitch, how long it takes me to give it to you because it's not an |
| 639 | 02:01:37,740 --> 02:01:47,490 | easy, and you get the information, like you have to weigh out a lot of things, which is not easy 123 program, there is no easy one to three precision out |
| 640 | 02:01:47,520 --> 02:01:55,680 | there. Outside of this. There's things you can make money with. But you're never going to come to the conclusion that I'm showing you is consistent in volume |
| 641 | 02:01:55,770 --> 02:02:07,260 | with anything else. This is the market. So when you hear me talk about in a tweet, or Twitter space, or if I share the analysis on a presentation, whether |
| 642 | 02:02:07,260 --> 02:02:14,790 | it be live streamed or a recorded review, and I'll give you a pinion about what I think it's going to do next. That's the time when you start paying attention |
| 643 | 02:02:14,790 --> 02:02:28,230 | the most. Okay, you want to say alright, he anticipates me ICTs telling you that we're expecting to see this area that shaded be treated as an inception of a |
| 644 | 02:02:28,230 --> 02:02:40,110 | down move, and terminus, the end the move, the low hanging fruit, that's all I'm stating, when I say that it doesn't mean it's the end of a line. It can't go any |
| 645 | 02:02:40,110 --> 02:02:53,280 | further than that. No, I'm telling you how to frame a setup. An element to every element that makes up a trade has to have several factors. It's the inception of |
| 646 | 02:02:53,280 --> 02:03:03,210 | a move where it begins. But by itself, there has to be some narrative reason why that trade should even form, which is what I've spent all this time thus far |
| 647 | 02:03:03,270 --> 02:03:13,680 | explaining why we're seeing what we're seeing in the chart right now, which is what I outlined men told you was going to happen on the 13th of June. You look |
| 648 | 02:03:13,680 --> 02:03:26,220 | for in time periods of the day where I teach you as kill zones. London, two o'clock to five o'clock in the morning in New York local time. If we have a |
| 649 | 02:03:26,220 --> 02:03:35,760 | bias, okay for the number crunchers out there, if we have a bias that is indicating that the market is likely to expand lower on the weekly chart, that |
| 650 | 02:03:35,760 --> 02:03:49,020 | means the candle is going to expand down right away 80% of your bias problem has already been solved by itself with that alone. But you have to wait for all the |
| 651 | 02:03:49,020 --> 02:04:04,320 | calendar events to either support or negate the idea. So we have a series of what big news inference news drivers this week, FOMC, CPI, all those things you |
| 652 | 02:04:04,320 --> 02:04:13,860 | watch being told how to navigate them. Not to trade ahead of them. But after you see that information come into the marketplace, and all the sentiment shift that |
| 653 | 02:04:13,860 --> 02:04:23,490 | the Create. We're not looking at the data. We're not seeing what the raw numbers suggests I could care less. I never look at that stuff, folks. It's never a |
| 654 | 02:04:23,490 --> 02:04:34,170 | factor. But I'm anticipating the medium or high impact news driver to create and present volatility in that volatility we're looking for where does the stops |
| 655 | 02:04:34,230 --> 02:04:43,320 | rest after that first initial move? Where do stop losses reside above old highs or below load? Where are those highs and lows? We don't know where they're going |
| 656 | 02:04:43,320 --> 02:04:55,470 | to form before CPI. We don't know where they're going to form before FOMC does its first move. We don't know where Non Farm Payroll is going to use the high |
| 657 | 02:04:55,470 --> 02:05:04,920 | and low that it creates after the initial run at 830. When that news driver comes out which is the reason why I tell you as my students don't trade those, |
| 658 | 02:05:05,160 --> 02:05:13,920 | you don't know what you're doing, I don't know what they're going to do, they can manually intervene and send these things wherever. That's gambling, I'm not |
| 659 | 02:05:13,920 --> 02:05:23,430 | gambling. I'm not trying to inspire any you to try to throw darts and see if you can get a bull's eye. Where there's no skill involved. It's happenstance, if you |
| 660 | 02:05:23,430 --> 02:05:31,890 | make money, but mostly you're going to lose. So what we do is we wait for that initial manipulation to come in in the marketplace that you can schedule and set |
| 661 | 02:05:31,890 --> 02:05:40,200 | your watch to, and it's all on the economic calendar. The economic calendar is going to tell you the time these reports that are coming up, the market is not |
| 662 | 02:05:40,200 --> 02:05:53,700 | moving because of the report. Period. Okay. That data, it's in an envelope somewhere, okay. weeks in advance. You think that the people, the powers that be |
| 663 | 02:05:53,700 --> 02:06:04,110 | that really are greedy, you think that they're waiting around for that same amount of information that everyone else is getting? No? No. So all of this is a |
| 664 | 02:06:04,110 --> 02:06:15,390 | lie. It's a myth that believe that fundamentals can be timed, want to report release, that report being released is a smokescreen. And they are always going |
| 665 | 02:06:15,390 --> 02:06:24,870 | to use these as a justification for, okay, the market reacted to this data, when it works in the favor, they try to say it is. But when it doesn't, they always |
| 666 | 02:06:24,870 --> 02:06:35,280 | say, well, the market price didn't. And I was mentioning that before going into our break. So when I tell you where I think the markets going to react, okay, |
| 667 | 02:06:35,280 --> 02:06:45,120 | that's a key point of reference in the either the market I'm talking about or a specific timeframe. So we're working with the daily chart, which is where most |
| 668 | 02:06:45,120 --> 02:06:54,930 | of your decision making, we're either a day trade or short term trade or whatever the bias is derived from the weekly chart, and where it's likely to |
| 669 | 02:06:54,930 --> 02:07:04,050 | draw to. That's it, then you're moving on to the daily chart in daily chart as you're watching and monitoring how each individual daily candle forms. If you're |
| 670 | 02:07:04,050 --> 02:07:14,550 | bearish, as we've been expecting, since the 13th of this week, we want to see how this price gravitate to this level down here, which is that bullish order |
| 671 | 02:07:14,550 --> 02:07:28,140 | block. So each individual day, we have the way out, does it run into that shaded area up here? Which is what I outlined this, we want to see, does the algorithm |
| 672 | 02:07:28,290 --> 02:07:42,870 | offer price there? And if it does, once it enters it, at what time of day? Well, what market are we looking at? Dollar. So primary interest is nailing down the |
| 673 | 02:07:42,870 --> 02:07:56,340 | high of the day. Where is the high of the day going to form in a market that is trading at a level we expect the price to react to. So we were expecting the |
| 674 | 02:07:56,340 --> 02:08:08,100 | inception of a down move between one of three levels in here, right? No midpoint, or the low of that shaded area. Remember what I said, if we're |
| 675 | 02:08:08,100 --> 02:08:19,380 | bearish, every inefficiency, if we're going to use it as a basis or a framework for a trade, we want to see in a premium array that's going to be used the sell |
| 676 | 02:08:19,380 --> 02:08:30,510 | off and send price lower. We don't want the upper portion to be respected. Because if it doesn't get up there, like we're seeing right here, that's really |
| 677 | 02:08:30,510 --> 02:08:44,880 | indicating that this is going to be a strong probability for what the trade down to and through the order block. Time of day now, okay? |
| 678 | 02:09:02,490 --> 02:09:15,210 | Got this fancy Killzone indicator right here. I drove my annotations out, folks by hand, I know that you'd like to have these little gizmos that do it. But |
| 679 | 02:09:16,350 --> 02:09:27,180 | nothing beats high touch high tech. It makes it more meaningful to you. It's like meditation for me. And it's a little tedious. Sometimes when I have to do a |
| 680 | 02:09:27,180 --> 02:09:35,760 | whole lot of annotations, but when my heart's in it like this, I don't mind doing it. So here's London Open, and we're dealing with the dollar index. And I |
| 681 | 02:09:35,760 --> 02:09:43,380 | mentioned on the 13th, that we would want to see the price of the dollar go up into this shaded area, which is the old inversion period gap on the weekly |
| 682 | 02:09:43,380 --> 02:09:53,640 | chart. So we've taken that weekly chart, fair value gap and transpose that to all timeframes lower than it so that way, whenever annotation do you put on your |
| 683 | 02:09:53,640 --> 02:10:06,900 | weekly chart? You want to make sure that you show that annotation on all timeframes and how do you do that? If you highlight the, the array that you're |
| 684 | 02:10:07,560 --> 02:10:18,300 | annotating on your weekly chart, and then current interval and below, or all intervals, basically same thing. Then you'll see on every timeframe when you go |
| 685 | 02:10:18,300 --> 02:10:28,800 | through your higher timeframe, weekly, daily, four hour, eight hour 15 minute chart 32nd chart, it'll always be there, okay. |
| 686 | 02:10:33,870 --> 02:10:48,360 | Inside this window of time that begins at the left side of that London Open kill zone invitation box to the right side, in this area is when, when the trade |
| 687 | 02:10:48,360 --> 02:11:04,110 | begins when the shift in market structure will occur when the high of the day forms 70% You have a probability that the high of the day will form between two |
| 688 | 02:11:04,110 --> 02:11:12,090 | o'clock in the morning and five o'clock in the morning, view your local time. But you have to have the other ingredients, you can't just simply say okay, |
| 689 | 02:11:12,420 --> 02:11:21,120 | highs and lows, let's run some numbers and calculate those the highs of the day forum on two o'clock to five o'clock on this day, this data set now you have to |
| 690 | 02:11:21,120 --> 02:11:32,760 | have the the narrative in mind. And I gave it to you on the 13th. I told you what to use this shaded area. My longer term students know that if we're |
| 691 | 02:11:32,760 --> 02:11:41,700 | bearish, we don't want to see all of the inefficiency respected, which is a breakaway gap if it's a fair value gap. But we've already worked inside this |
| 692 | 02:11:41,700 --> 02:11:54,060 | range already. But now we're treating it as a resistance. That means it can trade up to the low and reject and go lower or we permit. We permit our analysis |
| 693 | 02:11:54,390 --> 02:12:07,620 | to see price trade up into the midpoint, which is consequent erosion or here. So I'm gonna take that level off. So when we're trading at consequent encouragement |
| 694 | 02:12:07,620 --> 02:12:22,950 | here, and it's in London Open, we bumped the high. We want to see price do what? Showing willingness to want to go lower? Does it sharply leave? Once it trades |
| 695 | 02:12:22,950 --> 02:12:33,720 | up in here hits the buy side here. And then all this back and forth movement that I'm showing you written here all this here. Price is spending time in that |
| 696 | 02:12:33,720 --> 02:12:50,070 | range? Is it efficiently delivered? Yes. Why? Because it's moved up, down, up. But it's only keying off of the levels I've told you to focus on inside that |
| 697 | 02:12:50,070 --> 02:13:02,760 | shaded area. Consequent encroachment. We want to see does it reject after bumping the high here? Yes. Once it leaves that shaded area, how did it leave |
| 698 | 02:13:02,760 --> 02:13:24,510 | it? Energetically Yes. So now enter model 2022 by side taken here, shifting market structure, their fair value get there. No corners of your mouth is hurt |
| 699 | 02:13:24,510 --> 02:13:37,710 | now. It's funny how this stuff just keeps randomly happening. Alright, so we have our shift in market structure we have our fair value got and then over |
| 700 | 02:13:37,710 --> 02:13:51,300 | here, what is this? What time of day is that? 8am So you're in the heart of what New York open kills him. Seven o'clock to nine o'clock, that's your little sweet |
| 701 | 02:13:51,300 --> 02:14:12,840 | spot. Your your setup is gonna form for continuation. You hold down Control and drag. Oh, in case you're gonna learn that for my students. It's seven o'clock it |
| 702 | 02:14:12,840 --> 02:14:16,890 | can be left at 10 o'clock, but I'm gonna show you the whoops, don't want to do that |
| 703 | 02:14:25,410 --> 02:14:26,670 | and this is New York |
| 704 | 02:14:33,090 --> 02:14:43,110 | Okay, so inside this little window of opportunity here. You're focusing on what we've already worked up inside that consequent encroachment here. We've already |
| 705 | 02:14:43,110 --> 02:14:52,680 | seen the evidence that it wants to reject that. We have a shift in market structure. We have a fair value get in the market rallies up into what time of |
| 706 | 02:14:52,680 --> 02:15:00,450 | day. That's when the movie was gonna happen. New York local time. Seven o'clock in the morning to nine o'clock in the morning. That's your new york open ICT |
| 707 | 02:15:00,450 --> 02:15:14,010 | kills and this is the London Open kill zone. This is your premium array. The ranges from this high down to that low, that's the lowest low. Here's 50%. A |
| 708 | 02:15:14,010 --> 02:15:25,950 | premium is at or higher than that. Does that fair value gap qualify as a premium array relative to that high in that low? Yes. Is price returning back up to that |
| 709 | 02:15:25,950 --> 02:15:41,970 | shaded area? Yes. Where specifically the low end of it. It doesn't need to go back up to consequent parchment. Oh, consequent encouragement, it showed a |
| 710 | 02:15:42,000 --> 02:15:53,880 | signature that we would look for it left upper portion been traded to, again, worked off the low that guy. If you don't have these levels on your chart, or |
| 711 | 02:15:53,880 --> 02:16:01,890 | have them at least annotated in your notes that you're referring to throughout the day, in the beginning, you want to definitely have them in your chart, |
| 712 | 02:16:01,890 --> 02:16:08,880 | because it's going to take you some time to get used to seeing them like this. But over years and years of time doing it, you'll be able to work off of a |
| 713 | 02:16:08,880 --> 02:16:17,580 | notepad and you won't have anything on your chart at all. It'll be a naked chart, and it is okay. But it takes experience to do that. Okay. And obviously, |
| 714 | 02:16:17,580 --> 02:16:24,030 | you can see how quickly if you're not organized, you can get really, really lost, working from one higher timeframe down to the lower timeframe. But by |
| 715 | 02:16:24,030 --> 02:16:32,490 | having the higher timeframe logic, and all these reference points in mind, suddenly these mystifying moves that come out of nowhere for you. And you don't |
| 716 | 02:16:32,490 --> 02:16:40,530 | know where it came from everybody's on social media saying what the hell just happened, where'd that come from? We don't have that here. In this community, we |
| 717 | 02:16:40,530 --> 02:16:48,480 | come across as arrogant, and many times as narcissistic. Because we know what the fuck we're doing, we know exactly what we're looking for, we know exactly |
| 718 | 02:16:48,480 --> 02:16:56,880 | how it's gonna form when it's going to form. And when we take it down, and we share it with our tribe. The people on the outside, they get pissed off, they |
| 719 | 02:16:56,880 --> 02:17:03,480 | think, Oh, they they think their shit doesn't stink. Well, it doesn't. Maybe it sounds like roaches and chocolate chip cookies, restaurant oven. Whether you |
| 720 | 02:17:03,480 --> 02:17:13,950 | like it or not, I don't care. You don't have to stay here. But this stuff repeats every single week, every single week, it happens every single week. Now, |
| 721 | 02:17:14,490 --> 02:17:25,320 | every single day is not the same in terms of opportunity. Sometimes you'll see setups that are much more favorable than like we're seeing in lesser volatile |
| 722 | 02:17:25,320 --> 02:17:33,030 | days. But when we anticipate a direction in the marketplace, and it's derived from a higher timeframe weekly chart using the logic that I teach my students |
| 723 | 02:17:33,030 --> 02:17:41,580 | that I've been teaching them publicly on the YouTube channel, it gives you the framework for one shot one kill setups, where you can get in and take a lion's |
| 724 | 02:17:41,580 --> 02:17:50,640 | portion of the weekly range out doesn't mean you're trying to get the entire weekly range, it just means that you need is a small piece of it, that will |
| 725 | 02:17:50,640 --> 02:18:01,890 | satisfy you. And if you consider like a chicken bone, I use this analogy a lot. Do you eat the small little scraps on the ends of a chicken bone. I mean, if |
| 726 | 02:18:01,890 --> 02:18:10,620 | you're really a fan of chicken, I guess you do. But when I ate it, I just took the meat on the one thicker end of it. And sometimes it'd be something left on |
| 727 | 02:18:10,620 --> 02:18:20,610 | the bone. But I'm taking the majority of the off. I'm not worrying about starting the eating process at the end of the boom, regardless of what enum is. |
| 728 | 02:18:20,880 --> 02:18:30,990 | So I'm looking for where the meat of the move is. And my concepts have been aimed at trying to get you to where the meat is. But you don't need the highest |
| 729 | 02:18:30,990 --> 02:18:37,380 | high and a low slope. But I teach you how to find that too. So if you want to nitpick and get into, like you're eating crabs, and dig into all little crevices |
| 730 | 02:18:37,380 --> 02:18:44,850 | in some crannies to get every little morsel out. That's what my mentorship does. It's for freaks that want to be like that. I'm a freak. I like to know |
| 731 | 02:18:44,850 --> 02:18:51,930 | everything. I like to be in everything. I'm a control freak. I want to know everything. I want to know why it's going to happen. When it's going to happen. |
| 732 | 02:18:51,930 --> 02:19:00,120 | When is it going to fail? How will it fail in because I know those things I know when not to trade in the marketplace. I know when not to touch the marketplace. |
| 733 | 02:19:00,360 --> 02:19:08,340 | That's what makes me consistent. That's what makes me better than everybody else out there. Because nobody else has spent any sufficient time trying to define |
| 734 | 02:19:08,430 --> 02:19:18,330 | where they're likely to fail. Because they're so focused on trying to find how they can be better and write in profitable all the time. And think that it's |
| 735 | 02:19:18,330 --> 02:19:28,200 | limited to whatever their stop losses, and that's all they need. No. I want to know when the market can trick me. Even with my content. There are times if I |
| 736 | 02:19:28,200 --> 02:19:36,570 | don't know by experience, and I had to learn this with decades, there are times that even though I believe that my analysis concepts are superior to everything |
| 737 | 02:19:36,570 --> 02:19:47,970 | and everything that ever will exist because it is the market. It's tied into the algorithm. I can as the operator you as the operator you as the user, you will |
| 738 | 02:19:47,970 --> 02:19:59,820 | read into price, like a Rorschach inkblot, you'll see something that you want to see. And many times social media will cultivate that atmosphere where you get |
| 739 | 02:19:59,820 --> 02:20:07,290 | mad Add, you get jealous, you can get competitive, you can get offended by somebody, oh, I'm going to show him I'm going to show her or I didn't do as good |
| 740 | 02:20:07,290 --> 02:20:16,950 | as that person to me just try to outdo them. And you go in and you try to find something as a reason to get into a trade. We don't do that here. We do not do |
| 741 | 02:20:16,950 --> 02:20:28,680 | that here. You have to stick to the rules, time and price. Where are you at in that weekly outline that you spent time on when the market wasn't trading after |
| 742 | 02:20:28,680 --> 02:20:37,470 | Friday's close and before Sunday's opening wherever that is for you. If you're a churchgoer, you know, whatever you find some time in the weekend, you know, if |
| 743 | 02:20:37,470 --> 02:20:45,480 | you want to have a day of rest, and you observe the Sabbath, I don't tell you what day to use. You know, you have to have one day of rest period, don't mean |
| 744 | 02:20:45,480 --> 02:20:56,400 | by tell you what day it has to be just one day. Don't do anything on the market that day. But between Friday close in Sunday's opening, you have to find time to |
| 745 | 02:20:56,400 --> 02:21:06,450 | sit down and meditate on that weekly chart. What is it likely to do? What's it likely what momentum is presently in play? And was it gravitating to, and by |
| 746 | 02:21:06,450 --> 02:21:15,780 | framing those ideas on that weekly chart and transposing them to lower timeframes, suddenly, everything jumps off. And it means so much more. And it's |
| 747 | 02:21:15,780 --> 02:21:29,130 | much more clear to see what it is that you've missed, you missed all this time. Alright, so the the idea of how far price runs can go, I'm going to use that |
| 748 | 02:21:29,130 --> 02:21:44,430 | here. This for frame of reference, I'm gonna go back up to the daily chart, I want to encapsulate the entire down close candle here we'll use a yellow, I |
| 749 | 02:21:44,430 --> 02:21:45,300 | don't really want yellow. |
| 750 | 02:21:55,260 --> 02:22:04,590 | Alright, so that's the entirety of the bullish order block. And the expectation is we want to see does it want to gravitate lower and get into this area down |
| 751 | 02:22:04,590 --> 02:22:15,240 | here? Okay, and I'll hold off our reserves. Don't let us have that on your chart as well. And we'll drop down into a 15 minute chart again. I know it's ugly. But |
| 752 | 02:22:15,420 --> 02:22:23,490 | this range is the entirety of the order block. And the expectation is, we want to we want to see a trade down to consequent curtailment and go below it, we |
| 753 | 02:22:23,490 --> 02:22:36,150 | want to see that weakness that heaviness. Because we want to see the move protract further lower, which would give momentum to being a long holder to |
| 754 | 02:22:36,150 --> 02:22:50,160 | stock index futures and foreign currency. This move right here, this move right there. That is your trigger swing. That's the that's the measuring point for |
| 755 | 02:22:50,190 --> 02:23:04,590 | what you want to see for protections or Fibonacci extensions. You take your fib, the anchor, it dropped down to the low of that price swing. Okay, I'm gonna show |
| 756 | 02:23:04,590 --> 02:23:21,630 | you where my settings are. Again, I've done this in the past. I don't need them. And deviation three and two and a half. So here's where we're at. Close it. So |
| 757 | 02:23:21,630 --> 02:23:35,850 | we have a high, too low. And the entirety of that daily order block is shaded in yellow. Notice that that Fibonacci extension negative 2.5, which is two and a |
| 758 | 02:23:35,850 --> 02:23:45,000 | half times the range of the low to high here. This is all I use a Fibonacci for folks. That's it. Okay. I'm not in here looking for bat patterns and crab |
| 759 | 02:23:45,000 --> 02:23:55,560 | patterns and butterflies and all that stuff. I'm looking at math. Okay, that's it. This is the range that matters. And there has to be the confluence of time. |
| 760 | 02:23:57,210 --> 02:24:07,860 | Time Being London clothes will enclose begins at 10 o'clock in the morning in New York all the time. And ends at noon. There is a buffer I add to it when |
| 761 | 02:24:07,860 --> 02:24:17,220 | there's a big run off day. I can extend into one o'clock it's far and few between if you use just the 10 o'clock in the morning to 12 Noon New York local |
| 762 | 02:24:17,220 --> 02:24:31,950 | time as your London close kill zone. It will serve you well. Okay. Huge huge step forward and watch at 10 o'clock in the morning to noon |
| 763 | 02:24:42,960 --> 02:24:52,500 | hope you're having fun with this I'm loving this. Show the charge admission close Okay, so there's your London close kill zone |
| 764 | 02:24:57,840 --> 02:25:10,500 | it's things in my way kind of pisses me off now. Okay. So now here's what I want you to look at. All right? These mysterious markets. Okay, we want to know where |
| 765 | 02:25:10,530 --> 02:25:21,150 | price can beginning move. And where it can gravitate to where is it drawn to was drawn liquidity. And we want to frame it in the form of a low hanging fruit |
| 766 | 02:25:21,180 --> 02:25:34,950 | terminus, the inception of a move can be timed. The inception of the move can be determined within a specific price level, or within a range like an |
| 767 | 02:25:34,950 --> 02:25:50,700 | inefficiency. And in that range is three specific price levels. Three, that three levels is used it on a basis of whether we're bullish or bearish. So as I |
| 768 | 02:25:50,700 --> 02:25:59,940 | was mentioning earlier, we were expecting this shaded area appear on the weekly chart that showed in their inversion fair value gap to be treated as resistance, |
| 769 | 02:25:59,970 --> 02:26:10,860 | the algorithm will trade off into it during time, notice that it reacted here. This is the essentially the midpoint or consequent portion of the entire range. |
| 770 | 02:26:11,250 --> 02:26:20,490 | But look at a time of the day. It's one o'clock in the morning. That European European Open, yes, but the heart of the move. And what I teach by rules is the |
| 771 | 02:26:20,490 --> 02:26:32,610 | high of the low, the high and a low of the day is formed between two o'clock, and five o'clock in the morning. When we get here at 245, we're doing two |
| 772 | 02:26:32,610 --> 02:26:43,530 | things. Number one, we're bumping the Hi. So anyone that went short up here on dollar based ideas in long foreign currency, I'm tempted to put the Euro up here |
| 773 | 02:26:43,530 --> 02:26:50,040 | real quick, but I don't want to mess up the chart before I finish what I'm describing, but we'll come back to this this year, okay in a second. But during |
| 774 | 02:26:50,040 --> 02:27:00,780 | the London Open kill zone, then it creates the high you have a 70% probability of the high forming when you're bearish when you're expecting the market to |
| 775 | 02:27:00,780 --> 02:27:16,050 | deliver. So I outlined on the 13th of June 2023, going to a level outlined on the 13th. This level right here is your low hanging fruit objective. That's not |
| 776 | 02:27:16,080 --> 02:27:28,590 | the end of the road. It means that you frame that idea of taking a trade with this as you're drawing liquidity. But every single trade I enter every single |
| 777 | 02:27:28,590 --> 02:27:37,800 | trade I enter, I always look for some kind of a best case scenario, something more than I expected. Okay? Many times I don't ever get that sometimes I'll get |
| 778 | 02:27:37,800 --> 02:27:46,560 | stopped out. Sometimes it just simply doesn't give it to me. And I changed my opinion or mind about where I'm at. And I collapse a trade or take too many |
| 779 | 02:27:46,650 --> 02:27:55,740 | partials off to justify holding on. And it's just it's an evolving thing. And that's one of the weaknesses I've been very candid about. My exits are always a |
| 780 | 02:27:55,770 --> 02:28:05,460 | work in progress. And I've been doing this for three decades, so I'm not satisfied. My entries. If I never develop another entry strategy, I'll be fine. |
| 781 | 02:28:06,360 --> 02:28:16,440 | I got 81 of them, but you only need one, you only need one of them. So if you were to look at a breaker here, you have a high, low higher high, extend the |
| 782 | 02:28:16,440 --> 02:28:24,720 | breaker ever, you'd be entering short there if you're using optimal trade entry. Okay, I had to fill up earlier and we do it again, if you're just using the |
| 783 | 02:28:24,720 --> 02:28:33,570 | flagship, the old flagship pattern of my YouTube channel |
| 784 | 02:28:45,510 --> 02:28:55,590 | Alright, so these two blue lines here, that is the classic ICT optimal trade entry, which is a standard three quarter pullback, that high to low, it trades |
| 785 | 02:28:55,590 --> 02:29:03,720 | up into I'm quite certain that's probably 70.5, which is the sweet spot I teach on optimal trade entry. If you want to watch anything about optimal trade entry, |
| 786 | 02:29:03,720 --> 02:29:13,920 | if it's peeking your interest, I have many videos in this Youtube channel, just do a search on my channel for ote optimal trade entry that trade up into that |
| 787 | 02:29:13,920 --> 02:29:24,840 | right there is perfect. And it's just a beautiful run from there down. So you could use that as your entry pattern. Okay, entering on the fair value got here, |
| 788 | 02:29:24,840 --> 02:29:36,270 | which is the 2022 model. So right away, there's three ways of getting in it. There's three different models to get in that same price, man. Which one which |
| 789 | 02:29:36,270 --> 02:29:49,530 | one do you like? It's a matter of preference. But we have this run here to here and we have a standard deviation of negative 2.5 which is just outside the scope |
| 790 | 02:29:49,560 --> 02:29:58,920 | of the entirety of that daily bullish order block which is that shaded area in yellow. Anything get back up so it will you know what I'm referring to this down |
| 791 | 02:29:58,920 --> 02:30:11,580 | close candle here on the daily chart. Right there. I mentioned on the 13th. That full entire range. As soon as we start moving past midpoint, which is |
| 792 | 02:30:11,580 --> 02:30:20,100 | consequently, I'm sorry, mean threshold in order blocks, midpoint is mean threshold. Any inefficiency or gaps midpoint is consequently parchment. The |
| 793 | 02:30:20,100 --> 02:30:30,810 | mean, the mean threshold here, if we trade through that, when we're looking for your lower prices and such, that really bodes well for leaving something on like |
| 794 | 02:30:30,810 --> 02:30:38,970 | a partial, but it's Friday. So I've already told you, I don't want to hold anything over Friday, into the weekend starting up on Sunday, because of the gap |
| 795 | 02:30:38,970 --> 02:30:48,900 | risk that is available now because of everything that's been going on in the world. So anything can happen, you know, and cause a major sentiment shift, |
| 796 | 02:30:50,190 --> 02:30:58,440 | where we start trading from where we ended trading on Friday. So that gap risk is not something I'm comfortable with. And you may, you may not have that |
| 797 | 02:30:58,470 --> 02:31:07,290 | concern, you may be trading with such an insignificant amount of money and don't want to incur a great deal of risk. And you are willing to take those larger |
| 798 | 02:31:07,890 --> 02:31:17,610 | risks based on points or pips. But they won't be so impactful because of the money management you're using. But if I'm taking a trade, I'm not, I'm not |
| 799 | 02:31:17,610 --> 02:31:26,460 | taking a trade with a micro law, you know, I mean, I'm just trying to take something that has real risk behind it. And it will be much more impactful if |
| 800 | 02:31:26,460 --> 02:31:38,460 | I'm wrong. And I absorb a gap that was adverse to my position that I held every weekend. So that's why I'm saying it's better to be a day trader right now than |
| 801 | 02:31:38,460 --> 02:31:48,930 | ever has been. So we have a confluence of a negative 2.5 level on the FIB based on this price swing. And again, why am I using this price swing here, because |
| 802 | 02:31:48,930 --> 02:31:59,310 | this is a trigger. It's occurring up to a level where we want to see it being read, respected as resistance, which is the low end of that old weekly gap. It's |
| 803 | 02:31:59,310 --> 02:32:08,520 | during the time of day New York open, where continuations would form. Because the logic is, we've already formed the high the day. We're trusting, okay, how |
| 804 | 02:32:08,520 --> 02:32:17,790 | do you know ICT? How do you know it's not going to keep going? That's where you use a stop loss for? Remember, I said it's a 70% likelihood, if you have the |
| 805 | 02:32:17,790 --> 02:32:25,080 | narrative on side? I mean, do you pick the right direction on the weekly chart, sometimes I get it wrong, I get stopped out folks. I mean, I've shared where |
| 806 | 02:32:25,080 --> 02:32:32,190 | I've gotten stopped out, you've seen where my winning trades stopped me out, and I don't get the full run. Like, I don't know why you're acting like I don't show |
| 807 | 02:32:32,190 --> 02:32:39,840 | it, I show it. And you're most of you are ignoring the fact that I'm telling you what's gonna happen beforehand, and you're not using it to study it real time, |
| 808 | 02:32:39,990 --> 02:32:45,870 | what I'm pointing to it in advance, are you going through your charts and looking at it like this, or you marking up your charts like this, this is a |
| 809 | 02:32:45,870 --> 02:32:53,400 | perfect example, when I'm showing this, you should be doing these things. This is what you do. When I say back test, I'm not talking about go back in here |
| 810 | 02:32:53,400 --> 02:33:05,190 | using a Forex tester and testing what it feels like to be in there. That I'm not saying that that's not useful. But that's a mock up forward walk test. I'm not |
| 811 | 02:33:05,250 --> 02:33:13,740 | suggesting that I'm saying you go back and look at all moves, and you annotate your chart like this. And you save these in in these little areas over here, you |
| 812 | 02:33:13,740 --> 02:33:23,310 | talk about you annotate how the high was formed here, at this time and the continuation in the high in the New York session form here. And it delivered to |
| 813 | 02:33:23,310 --> 02:33:35,430 | a confluence of standard deviation negative 2.5. And breach the low of the order block. This level right here is the daily order block. First threshold where |
| 814 | 02:33:35,580 --> 02:33:45,960 | that's where you start trade as a not soccer trade, but you think of it is as your low hanging fruit objective. You don't need to do all this, you just needed |
| 815 | 02:33:45,960 --> 02:33:55,410 | to get here, right there. And that's not even your first partial, your first partial would be something like the low here. Or at the mean, I'm so sorry, the |
| 816 | 02:33:55,410 --> 02:34:06,570 | consequent encroachment of this wick right there. So midpoint that wick that low or that low, which one you choose is your first partial, neither one of them are |
| 817 | 02:34:06,570 --> 02:34:15,150 | incorrect. But your framing with this is where you think that the low hanging fruit objective is. So that's your initial draw. And then you watch and see once |
| 818 | 02:34:15,150 --> 02:34:23,040 | it gets there, you leave a partial on how much whatever you're willing to hold on to, you have to allow and I'm allowing for you as your teacher and men |
| 819 | 02:34:23,070 --> 02:34:32,100 | mentor, I'm allowing for you to bring in your personality to this, you're bringing your own personal touch to this. That means you decide how much you're |
| 820 | 02:34:32,100 --> 02:34:40,170 | going to take off at your first partial in the beginning, when you're first learning, take the most off, because you're going to see many times you're doing |
| 821 | 02:34:40,170 --> 02:34:51,690 | it incorrectly while you're learning and that's fine. But you can be happy about being profitable, quote unquote, with your results and still be incorrect about |
| 822 | 02:34:51,690 --> 02:34:59,190 | what you thought was going to happen. Meaning that if you thought this was going to happen as I was co signing on the 13th of June. I said I think it was gonna |
| 823 | 02:34:59,190 --> 02:35:09,780 | go down here If it would have failed to go below there, and I was talking to you today, I would be saying, well, if it would have done it gone below this low or |
| 824 | 02:35:09,780 --> 02:35:17,670 | that low here, you will take in partials and it wouldn't matter if it went down here. So that's how your, your analysis needs to make room for you to be wrong. |
| 825 | 02:35:18,060 --> 02:35:27,480 | But not an unprofitable, you're always looking for a way to take something out, but there has to be predetermined. So if you are anticipating the move from up |
| 826 | 02:35:27,480 --> 02:35:38,190 | here, and going down to this level here, in that range from here, to here, looking left, where is the pools of liquidity or inefficiencies, you can't use |
| 827 | 02:35:38,190 --> 02:35:44,490 | this one, because we're, we're we're acting on that as a term. Meaning this is what I'm talking about that |
| 828 | 02:35:50,369 --> 02:36:00,539 | all of this movement here is just this boss and balances on efficiency now has been what is sell side has been offered to it. Now. Look at the bodies of these |
| 829 | 02:36:00,539 --> 02:36:12,209 | candles. Look at that candle stopping right there after this buy side has been repriced with sell side. So the down closed candle now has provided a repricing |
| 830 | 02:36:12,239 --> 02:36:25,019 | to this inefficiency. That starts the framework of this Judas swing for the New York open this little run from here to here is power three power three is not |
| 831 | 02:36:25,019 --> 02:36:36,629 | limited to the daily candlestick power three can be utilized in any timeframe. But this market retraction this false move up to a level which is the low of |
| 832 | 02:36:36,629 --> 02:36:45,059 | that old weekly fair value got, which is what I told you the watch for that this is give you the signature that is likely to go lower. You had confirmation in |
| 833 | 02:36:45,059 --> 02:36:54,359 | London, I teach you in this YouTube channel in my lectures that if you're bearish, if you see the London high form when you're bearish and it's breaking |
| 834 | 02:36:54,359 --> 02:37:05,489 | down and you retrace in New York, chances are you're retracing to have a continuation lower. In here you have it. So you can't use this as a target from |
| 835 | 02:37:05,489 --> 02:37:12,569 | up here. You want to see it go at minimum below that low here. And would you be incorrect by taking the largest portion off of your first partial, if you're |
| 836 | 02:37:12,569 --> 02:37:21,269 | brand new doing that, no, you're not wrong. By doing that. You're getting a lot of movement. But you're not trading dollar either. You're trading Euro dollar |
| 837 | 02:37:21,329 --> 02:37:31,649 | POUND DOLLAR Aussie dollar New Zealand Dollar, it's something to an effect. But we're looking for how prices want to go down to this level minimum. So you want |
| 838 | 02:37:31,649 --> 02:37:41,849 | to take a partial here or you might wanna take the partial of that low here and the wick whenever there's a wick. Okay. If if your position affords it, always, |
| 839 | 02:37:41,879 --> 02:37:53,159 | always, always, always, every single trade, I don't care, who told you it's going to go wherever and includes me. If the price trades to a consequent |
| 840 | 02:37:53,159 --> 02:38:03,659 | encroachment of a wick, you must take partials if you're if you're short just above it, because that means it might trade drag to that midpoint of that, stop |
| 841 | 02:38:03,659 --> 02:38:18,479 | on a dime in retrace and spend some time consolidate or Alright, just reverse. So consequent encroachment of wicks and tails are imperative partial places to |
| 842 | 02:38:18,479 --> 02:38:26,459 | take partials at. So if you're short, you have to factor in that price level and the spread. So you want to see the midpoint of that and a little bit above it. |
| 843 | 02:38:27,809 --> 02:38:37,229 | If it trades down to that level here, you want to take that as a partial, always, always, always, always, always cast in stone, it's never gonna be a |
| 844 | 02:38:37,229 --> 02:38:49,169 | deviation from that roll. If you are trading inside of a range, meaning this high to that target down here, which is the old daily order block. That line is |
| 845 | 02:38:49,169 --> 02:38:56,969 | where you think that the low hanging fruit objective is. You're not saying that it can't go lower. You're saying that that's where you're expecting it to draw |
| 846 | 02:38:56,969 --> 02:39:08,189 | to on the downside is trying to get there, in your opinion, between that level in this Hi, you're looking through all of this for inefficiencies, and I already |
| 847 | 02:39:08,189 --> 02:39:18,089 | disqualified this one. You had this gap here. Okay, that's a real liquidity point. If it if you extend it forward, you can use that as an objective as a |
| 848 | 02:39:18,089 --> 02:39:30,449 | partial below this low here, but these wicks these tails, okay. When you have two of them back to back like that, you're taking the longest one. Take the |
| 849 | 02:39:30,449 --> 02:39:41,549 | longest one divided in half, what you're measuring is the close to the low half of that plus a little bit for spread. When when it gets there you'll take a |
| 850 | 02:39:41,549 --> 02:39:49,469 | partial, we just happen to happen to have a low here at that low wasn't here and it was just the wick there would be even further reason for you to want to take |
| 851 | 02:39:49,469 --> 02:40:03,119 | a partial tear. I have learned many times when I held on to trades that didn't go to my objectives. These two tails or wicks, are always the culprit that I |
| 852 | 02:40:03,119 --> 02:40:12,119 | didn't notice in my first few years of trading. And it's the consequent coaching the midpoint of that, where the algorithm comes back down to it and doesn't need |
| 853 | 02:40:12,119 --> 02:40:21,779 | to go back down here. It just goes enough into that wick to upset in liquidity. And then ultimately, what will reverse if I'm wrong. So that's the reason why |
| 854 | 02:40:21,779 --> 02:40:32,909 | I'm teaching you that whenever you have a wick, or a tail, inside of the range that you're trading in, and you're expecting that rain to be broken out. You're |
| 855 | 02:40:32,909 --> 02:40:45,989 | anticipating that breakout, but you can't ignore any of these, these wicks because many times, they can completely reverse you and run your run your stop |
| 856 | 02:40:45,989 --> 02:40:58,169 | out if you've traded in order to completely reverse on your initial stop loss. So entry at New York open at a time between seven o'clock and nine o'clock, at a |
| 857 | 02:40:58,169 --> 02:41:08,129 | level at a price that's been determined and told to you on the 13th of June, what level the low of the inefficiency in the middle or consequent current or |
| 858 | 02:41:08,129 --> 02:41:21,179 | the inefficiency, time, money open. New York open price, consequent correction of the gap, lower the gap. All other factors being there, the market starts |
| 859 | 02:41:21,209 --> 02:41:29,369 | breaks once this low is broken, we don't know if it's going to go down here. We don't even know if it's going to go here we're trusting that it's going to go |
| 860 | 02:41:29,369 --> 02:41:39,089 | there, which is why you have a stoploss. If we knew with absolute assertion that we're going to see it and it's not going to fail, we would never need to use a |
| 861 | 02:41:39,089 --> 02:41:49,709 | stop loss. So you have to trade with managing risk in the stop loss is essential for you to be able to do that. So we measure how we trade once we take that low |
| 862 | 02:41:49,709 --> 02:42:00,659 | out, does it do it energetically I would say that's the energetic. The next candle we open here that's opening. When this I'm sorry, broken here, the market |
| 863 | 02:42:00,659 --> 02:42:14,849 | trades up the into the range of this high in this low, essentially about half of it. When we see that the next candle, we want to see it break lower and treat |
| 864 | 02:42:14,849 --> 02:42:31,829 | this as an order block. We open rally up trade down we trade through it. It does not need to close below it mean threshold is important when we're trading down |
| 865 | 02:42:31,829 --> 02:42:40,439 | to an order block for targeting purposes and or continuation. If it closes below mean threshold, that's an indication that it's likely not a promise, it's an |
| 866 | 02:42:40,469 --> 02:42:51,719 | indication that it's likely to continue moving lower. But if we're seeing a new brand new up close candle in a cell program, this target here is our objective. |
| 867 | 02:42:51,749 --> 02:43:01,559 | Remember, it's a daily bullish order block, the full range of that order block is shaded in yellow. So consequent encroachment, I'm sorry, the mean threshold |
| 868 | 02:43:01,559 --> 02:43:05,699 | of that waterblock sort of eyeball it here |
| 869 | 02:43:17,880 --> 02:43:30,360 | is one or 2.565. So we went through that easily, and then traded outside of the the range of that waterblock. So now since we've done this, this level here mean |
| 870 | 02:43:30,360 --> 02:43:50,280 | threshold now becomes critical. And we would rather see it not trade up into absurd. We don't want to see this range like this. Didn't do that, right? Like |
| 871 | 02:43:50,280 --> 02:43:55,560 | this, we want to see this portion of the range be revisited. |
| 872 | 02:44:01,289 --> 02:44:10,649 | And that was the high end of that. This was the high order block. This is the low. This is the mean threshold, this section of price action, if it's going to |
| 873 | 02:44:10,649 --> 02:44:21,149 | continue, it's best for it not to trade back up into this area here. And because of that, I would treat this as an area of a fear of a gap that I want to see |
| 874 | 02:44:21,149 --> 02:44:30,779 | stay open. So say say this was like the Euro dollar, or it was the ES or in Q or something on trade. I don't trade the dollar index. I use it as a barometer. |
| 875 | 02:44:31,709 --> 02:44:40,019 | Everything I'm showing you here should be a mirror image on euro and it should be a mirror image own pen dollar. But because of this idea of the order block, |
| 876 | 02:44:40,289 --> 02:44:51,419 | and now because we went below the mean threshold of it. I don't want to see the upper portion of that order block now retreated to it can it's best if it |
| 877 | 02:44:51,419 --> 02:45:01,199 | doesn't. Now because of encapsulated that relative to the mean threshold or midpoint up to the highest point of that daily order block In this section of |
| 878 | 02:45:01,199 --> 02:45:09,029 | price action when I'm looking at price that you can see right away, while I'm trading on a one minute five minute chart, imagine me trying to do all of this |
| 879 | 02:45:09,029 --> 02:45:18,479 | annotation and justify why I'm doing and still, watching price managing the position is impossible. But these are all the things that it's in my mind that |
| 880 | 02:45:18,479 --> 02:45:27,299 | I'm referring to. And weighing out when I'm moving a stop when I'm not moving a stop when I'm taking a partial. When I say I want to see a certain range stay |
| 881 | 02:45:27,299 --> 02:45:40,139 | open like this would be a gap, you will always see that and clearly see that as a fair way to get there. This low, and this high, that one candle here, that's a |
| 882 | 02:45:40,139 --> 02:45:50,549 | CV, I wouldn't want to see it trade up. And now it can trade up to the midpoint, which is mean threshold, go just above this candles high and then resume going |
| 883 | 02:45:50,549 --> 02:46:01,049 | lower, that would be institutional order for entry drill. Trusting that this is not needed to be traded to or up into this area here, as I had indicated, oops, |
| 884 | 02:46:01,649 --> 02:46:14,069 | from this high down the midpoint. So again, you don't know what the blocks are stop trying to teach them. But the the point is, is we trade down, okay, we |
| 885 | 02:46:14,069 --> 02:46:26,909 | trade down into targets. Until we get to Tang, the high that they formed in London Open exactly how I teach us I think Toronto time, if you're bearish, the |
| 886 | 02:46:26,909 --> 02:46:37,919 | high is going to form between two o'clock at five o'clock in the morning, New York local time. If that is true, New York session will have a high probability |
| 887 | 02:46:37,919 --> 02:46:47,549 | of continuation of the same direction that London already establishes that means the highest form in London, we have a price area that we want to see respected, |
| 888 | 02:46:47,579 --> 02:46:56,549 | we already worked the midpoint of that old gap. The low is now the sensitive price point. That's the level of price. But it has to be traded to at the time |
| 889 | 02:46:56,549 --> 02:47:06,539 | of day that the algorithm will refer to for new delivery, new delivery is a lower low on the day, this protraction higher up in the New York open, and the |
| 890 | 02:47:06,539 --> 02:47:19,889 | time in price is meeting right here, then we have this acceleration to the downside. Until we get to when London close starts at 10am. Now at 10am You're |
| 891 | 02:47:19,889 --> 02:47:30,689 | watching does price hit your target or multiple targets? If it does, now you're in a position where you could potentially see a market reversal profile, London |
| 892 | 02:47:30,689 --> 02:47:41,429 | close generally makes the extreme end of the day. So if we see the high of the day form in London, the low of the day forms generally in this little time |
| 893 | 02:47:41,429 --> 02:47:51,419 | window here between 10 o'clock in new, don't take my word for it, go back and look at your data, look at your old moves your charts every single day. With the |
| 894 | 02:47:51,419 --> 02:48:03,089 | exception those are here. You should have the minimum of just that. Just that that in itself. And all the annotation areas over here that you could fill in |
| 895 | 02:48:03,119 --> 02:48:12,359 | with all your observations and you cheerlead yourself. And you say it was amazing to see how the level I expected on the 13th of June to be respected as |
| 896 | 02:48:12,359 --> 02:48:20,099 | resistance, which is that old weekly inversion fair value gap being respected here. And then it started this framework in the London Open green high today. |
| 897 | 02:48:20,339 --> 02:48:30,389 | And it traded all the way down to just like I teach on YouTube. Listen, this is all in videos, all in videos, years and years and years and years of it. And the |
| 898 | 02:48:30,389 --> 02:48:41,159 | rules have never changed. It's always the same stuff. The algorithm is not changing. It's not it's not it hasn't it won't period, what will happen that |
| 899 | 02:48:41,159 --> 02:48:49,859 | causes it to stop working, we are not trading anymore, we won't be permitted to trade anymore. There you go. That's how it ends. So you got a bigger problem. |
| 900 | 02:48:50,339 --> 02:48:57,899 | Yeah, then then worrying about whether it's going to work or not working, if that happens. So as long as there's markets being offered to trade, this logic |
| 901 | 02:48:57,899 --> 02:49:10,619 | is always going to be used, period and a story rest. Alright, so now, I'm going to take all this information here. And I want you to keep that in mind. And |
| 902 | 02:49:10,619 --> 02:49:23,849 | we're going to go back up into a daily chart. And we're gonna segue over to and then beautiful look at the how it looks on a daily chart now completely random |
| 903 | 02:49:25,229 --> 02:49:39,989 | Eurodollar we'll take our next break at 1130. It'll just be a five minute break in case you're wondering. Got a P IC team and kind of like a break. So here is |
| 904 | 02:49:39,989 --> 02:49:50,009 | your dollar. And you remember I was talking to you about how on the 13th. I said that there's a small little gap in here and then we have this order block right |
| 905 | 02:49:50,009 --> 02:50:01,229 | there. Okay, so I encapsulate the entire range of the order block in that area here. Yesterday. We traded up into it. There and in Today, we had this |
| 906 | 02:50:01,859 --> 02:50:08,699 | gargantuan move outside of it, which is supported by the weakness that we've seen in the dollar index. So I'm not going to spend a great deal of time going |
| 907 | 02:50:08,699 --> 02:50:16,139 | through this one, because everything I just showed you in dollar, will be a mirror image, or should be a mirror image of everything you see here in Europe. |
| 908 | 02:50:16,439 --> 02:50:22,979 | So we're just gonna drop down into an hourly chart, because a lot of things I want to cover, and if I'm not careful, we could be in this thing till eight |
| 909 | 02:50:22,979 --> 02:50:32,819 | o'clock tonight. And while I make allowances for that, because of energy, God could do it. My wife probably won't permit that. I'm gonna stay married folks. |
| 910 | 02:50:32,819 --> 02:50:42,629 | Okay. All right. Here's your hourly chart. And we were looking for a price wanting to eventually gravitate from the 13, we want to see a gravity up into |
| 911 | 02:50:42,659 --> 02:50:44,609 | that gap, and we scroll down here. |
| 912 | 02:50:53,969 --> 02:51:03,059 | So it's this high in that low. Okay. One of the things that I would counsel you to do if you're going to be doing a lot of annotations, and journaling, which is |
| 913 | 02:51:03,059 --> 02:51:12,089 | what I'm trying to cultivate in you as a student. Whenever you anchor your annotations in lines on from the higher timeframe charts, when he dropped down |
| 914 | 02:51:12,089 --> 02:51:22,739 | to the lower timeframe, like I'm showing you here, the the highs, you want to make sure that you toggle on to the very specific levels. So that way it makes |
| 915 | 02:51:22,739 --> 02:51:28,649 | your charts near I'm saying that because I'm obsessively compulsive, it probably may not be a big deal to you. But if you don't have that, in the beginning |
| 916 | 02:51:28,649 --> 02:51:38,669 | stages, it'd be easy for you to gloss over key levels and where they were referencing from respective times of the day when you're going to learn how to |
| 917 | 02:51:38,669 --> 02:51:55,229 | do it right. Otherwise, you're just wasting opportunity. So we have on 13th, which is here. My market drops down take sell sell side. What is this high right |
| 918 | 02:51:55,229 --> 02:52:01,619 | here? Last up close candle. What is that? It's not a breaker. |
| 919 | 02:52:15,119 --> 02:52:29,789 | What is the what is the purpose or function of a breaker? mitigation. So a breaker if it was a bullish breaker, we would see a high I'm sorry, a low, a |
| 920 | 02:52:29,789 --> 02:52:40,499 | high and a lower low than that low here. But we're not seeing that. We see a high I'm sorry, low, high, low, a higher low. So it didn't go lower here. So |
| 921 | 02:52:40,499 --> 02:52:55,109 | that makes this high here, a mitigation block. similar in scope, but the definition of what makes it a mitigation block is that distinctive feature. So |
| 922 | 02:52:55,109 --> 02:52:58,349 | if you take that range here, extend it out in time. |
| 923 | 02:53:04,679 --> 02:53:19,199 | Perfect. What's the low of this candle here? Look right here to the upper left hand corner. What is the low of that candle? 1.07746. That's the lowest candle |
| 924 | 02:53:19,199 --> 02:53:36,149 | here. What's the low this candle right there? 1.07741. So it respects it. Colors outside the line just a little bit. rallies, but look at the bodies. But they're |
| 925 | 02:53:36,149 --> 02:53:43,859 | talking about the works versus the bodies. The wicks do the damage, that means you have to allow for these little Mohawks. Okay, I got a lot of questions about |
| 926 | 02:53:44,699 --> 02:53:55,409 | folks saw that video where I was trading the index futures. And I annotated where it was trading down outside of the fair value gap. And anytime it does |
| 927 | 02:53:55,409 --> 02:54:08,969 | that, the my mindset is it's allowing for spread. So I don't lose my mind. If it just makes a little small, small, little wick outside of a level. Or if it's |
| 928 | 02:54:08,969 --> 02:54:18,719 | outside of a fair Vega. If it's like one tick, or two ticks, and it really comes back inside the range uncomfortable with that. You might be freaking out if |
| 929 | 02:54:18,719 --> 02:54:27,179 | you're trying to trade before you're supposed to be and you're, you're ill prepared to do it. You'll get scared out of the trade or not trust a level where |
| 930 | 02:54:27,209 --> 02:54:34,709 | if you watch when I'm doing executions, I'm allowing for these things so many times I'm annotating right then real time saying you know this is a mohawk if I |
| 931 | 02:54:34,709 --> 02:54:42,899 | ever see if you ever see a mohawk or hear me talk about a mohawk. It's just when the price action has a little tiny little movement with a wick that's just |
| 932 | 02:54:42,899 --> 02:54:53,129 | outside the lines that I would see as if it was everything perfect. Like no deviations from the actual high or low or the range that's defining an |
| 933 | 02:54:53,129 --> 02:55:02,279 | imbalance. It can it can color outside the lines and it's completely permissible. It does not upset my expectation. It doesn't unsettle me. And you |
| 934 | 02:55:02,279 --> 02:55:09,689 | get used to seeing that when you do these annotations, you trust yourself and your observation and reading price, when you see these things repeating over and |
| 935 | 02:55:09,689 --> 02:55:21,899 | over and over again. So anyway, that's a mitigation block in the market accelerates during the New York, I'm sorry, the London Open kill zone on the |
| 936 | 02:55:21,899 --> 02:55:32,279 | 14th, at 2am. So we had sellside, in here, we dropped down to it, that's your Judas swing, the market then rallies quickly up into the levels, I told you on |
| 937 | 02:55:32,279 --> 02:55:42,869 | the 13th, they would do all the way up to the high here today and through it, just like we saw happen on the dollar index. So if you are Eurodollar trader, |
| 938 | 02:55:43,409 --> 02:55:59,099 | okay, you want to have a reference between that and we're looking at the dollar index with it. So you want to constantly be referring to what you're seeing on |
| 939 | 02:55:59,159 --> 02:56:12,689 | the market that you're trading versus the dollar index. So everything you're looking at in price, for your market of study or trading, you're constantly |
| 940 | 02:56:12,719 --> 02:56:26,279 | getting feedback in relationship to the dollar index. So if you're looking for the dollar index to go lower, and you feel like you're you just can't hold on to |
| 941 | 02:56:26,279 --> 02:56:35,159 | a trade, it's running for you. And you have a partial on and you just, if you're trading with real money, he knows what I'm talking about. It's stressful to be |
| 942 | 02:56:35,159 --> 02:56:42,419 | in a winning trade like that, we just don't know when to close it, you don't want to close it too soon. Because if it runs, it's just going to keep reminding |
| 943 | 02:56:42,419 --> 02:56:50,489 | you that you just got out on a motion, you should just held on to it or put a stop loss at a point where you can be comfortable with it, you move up half of |
| 944 | 02:56:50,519 --> 02:57:00,659 | the open profit and just leave it there. If it stops you out. Who cares because you've taken a larger portion of already in partials. But the way you beat that |
| 945 | 02:57:00,659 --> 02:57:09,179 | uncertainty or that nagging feeling of I don't know when to get out when to get out, you're constantly referring to the dollar index in relationship to your |
| 946 | 02:57:09,179 --> 02:57:16,439 | market of choice. So if you're, if you're trading Eurodollar, and it trades to the high end of the order block here, and it trades to the lower block over |
| 947 | 02:57:16,439 --> 02:57:26,099 | here, you're already looking for signatures to support it complete run off and keep on going lower. But when we get time of day, like we have here |
| 948 | 02:57:32,340 --> 02:57:42,630 | soon as we enter in London, Milan clothes, you have, you have to have the majority of your trade off, you have to number one, it's Friday to London |
| 949 | 02:57:42,630 --> 02:57:53,250 | clothes is generally the time when it makes the opposite end of the daily range. So we have the one high forming here, the high of the day, we had all this sell |
| 950 | 02:57:53,250 --> 02:58:02,310 | side delivery, and over delivering in terms of what we were expecting, which is wonderful. But when we entered a time of 10 o'clock to noon, New York local |
| 951 | 02:58:02,310 --> 02:58:13,440 | time, generally a lot of the volume for index, and I'm sorry, for forex, and currency trading starts to dry up between 10 and noon in later in the afternoon. |
| 952 | 02:58:13,440 --> 02:58:21,900 | Yes, you might see these little fluctuations. But I'm not a fan of afternoon trading in currencies, like I'm not a fan of it, the bulk of the volume is going |
| 953 | 02:58:21,900 --> 02:58:34,680 | to be encapsulated between two o'clock in the morning and noon, local time in New York. So the way I just ignore any potential blow off moves, is I have |
| 954 | 02:58:34,680 --> 02:58:45,690 | roles. And I have to have closed up shop sometime between 10 o'clock in the morning and noon, New York, New York local time. Especially if we've had |
| 955 | 02:58:45,690 --> 02:58:56,520 | targets, you know, hit and these multiple targets have been hit. If you need to leave a very small portion of one, then it's okay to do that. But just know that |
| 956 | 02:58:56,520 --> 02:59:06,480 | it's probably gonna stop you out. And it's okay, because you're holding a small portion one. But if it runs, it will satisfy that need to be in case it runs. |
| 957 | 02:59:06,660 --> 02:59:12,240 | But you're still gonna regret not having the full position on so you're always gonna be wrong in that regard. And that's why I'm telling you my exits. I'm |
| 958 | 02:59:12,240 --> 02:59:21,210 | never, I'm never satisfied with that I don't have a strategy that satisfies me every single time I think a tray, but I can find profitability in every trade |
| 959 | 02:59:21,210 --> 02:59:31,860 | I'm getting into because there's partials always available. And that part is a personal aspect of trading that I teach and make allowance for. You might not |
| 960 | 02:59:31,860 --> 02:59:40,470 | understand that allowance is being a factor coming into this. But that's what you're doing when you take my information and concepts and they make that it |
| 961 | 02:59:40,470 --> 02:59:49,500 | makes your model. It's uniquely yours. How you engage with price action, what you're comfortable with, where you're never going to outside trade outside these |
| 962 | 02:59:49,500 --> 02:59:57,720 | parameters that you defined for yourself. How do you start there, what parameters and what framework do you apply these right here which is time price |
| 963 | 02:59:57,990 --> 03:00:09,180 | theory This is not foreign fitted today. This is exactly how I teach it. My students have seen these things for years, you're gonna see these things for the |
| 964 | 03:00:09,180 --> 03:00:16,920 | rest of your life. If you study price action, and you trade, you'll see these things repeat every week, it happens every single week, which is why my my |
| 965 | 03:00:17,430 --> 03:00:31,680 | slogan is, is every week, every day, and it won't stop, because this is the marketplace. Alright, so let's go into a five minute chart. |
| 966 | 03:00:37,170 --> 03:00:56,370 | Take a look at how we tripped up into on the 15th. We had sellside here, then we dropped down. Classic signature of London Open is a stop run. London Open |
| 967 | 03:00:56,370 --> 03:01:07,800 | classically seeks sell side or by side liquidity. You don't have to have the confidence to go in and buy the sell stops. I can my students have learned how |
| 968 | 03:01:07,800 --> 03:01:19,710 | to do that. But it's a very, very hard thing to learn. Because you have to see years of this type of stuff to desensitize you. It's easier for you to wait for |
| 969 | 03:01:19,710 --> 03:01:36,900 | this run here. And then judge does it have displacement? Higher? swing high. After take stops. February gap it drops down into a here rally. We want to see |
| 970 | 03:01:36,900 --> 03:01:44,970 | energetic run once it clears this high. Does it do it? Yes. In itself at this time of day is 355. What time of day is that? |
| 971 | 03:01:50,730 --> 03:02:00,420 | London Open kill zone between two o'clock in the morning and five o'clock in the morning. This fair value got right here is the silver bullet for euro for today. |
| 972 | 03:02:02,790 --> 03:02:17,880 | You only need this low right here to trade to there were times that 420. Sorry, just a joke. Some of you probably won't get that. No, I don't smoke weed. But |
| 973 | 03:02:17,910 --> 03:02:29,340 | there's your silver bullet for London Open. And it rallies up to what the low of that fair value gap I told you on the 13th of June. That is what what is that? |
| 974 | 03:02:30,270 --> 03:02:39,840 | That is your low hanging fruit objective. You don't need it to go all the way up to mean threshold which is half of that shaded area in purple, which is the |
| 975 | 03:02:39,840 --> 03:02:50,010 | order block on the daily chart. You don't need to go to it can but you are framing on the basis of getting into that fear Vega. Now why am I not using the |
| 976 | 03:02:50,010 --> 03:03:03,270 | low the order block? Because that gap is there? The inefficiency takes precedence over the order block? Yes, the inefficiency takes precedence over the |
| 977 | 03:03:03,270 --> 03:03:19,950 | order block. This is where you would see it reach for minimum. Does it react there? Sure does. trace back down in to what was it trading into? Low? High, |
| 978 | 03:03:20,370 --> 03:03:36,990 | lower low. What does that make this? A bullish breaker standing in time? What time of day is that? Your coping skills in seven o'clock in the morning to nine |
| 979 | 03:03:36,990 --> 03:03:46,710 | o'clock in the morning. There's your little sweet spot. What does it do? Rallies? How high can it go? Well, we have to determine a fulcrum point. fulcrum |
| 980 | 03:03:46,710 --> 03:03:55,920 | point is here. Why is that important? If it runs through this high, we can start doing measurements in form of standard deviation. So you can take that low |
| 981 | 03:03:56,430 --> 03:04:09,780 | projected up this high here. Standard deviation negative to negative one and a half. One This is a measured move. Okay. So from this low to the high is classic |
| 982 | 03:04:10,140 --> 03:04:21,600 | ABCD type thing or measured move. That's it right here. You want to absolutely have lines portion of your your trade off there because what else is that in |
| 983 | 03:04:21,600 --> 03:04:38,640 | close proximity to the high of the Ottawa, this shaded area here. The shaded area is let me drop into my Dropbox go up into this. This up close candle right |
| 984 | 03:04:38,640 --> 03:04:48,600 | here. Right there right above my cursor. That's what I'm highlighting here to low to the high of that. That's what I'm showing. So back down in |
| 985 | 03:04:54,869 --> 03:05:05,639 | measuring that low to high this is the fulcrum point, meaning that when price trades to go through it, it has to go through it before you can get any of these |
| 986 | 03:05:05,639 --> 03:05:16,589 | measurements. That's the measured move lines portion of the trade should be taken off there. Because it's in close proximity to the high that order block, |
| 987 | 03:05:16,799 --> 03:05:27,959 | it could very easily stop there and consolidate into the rest of the day, and then continue on Sunday in the Monday. But allowing for continuation, when it |
| 988 | 03:05:27,959 --> 03:05:37,949 | gets to the high of the order block, you need to consider taking partial there. Negative one and a half. And two, it's two times this move here. Whenever you |
| 989 | 03:05:37,949 --> 03:05:51,749 | get that type of move, it's very, very extended. So there are two standard deviations. I teach in mentorship that two standard deviations of like the Asian |
| 990 | 03:05:51,749 --> 03:06:03,119 | range or flout or central bank does. Dealers range central bank digital currency here that central bank dealers range, those ranges that I use for measuring |
| 991 | 03:06:03,239 --> 03:06:13,829 | protraction. And how far a high or low can move before it makes it. That same principle applies here with all price swings. Negative two standard deviation is |
| 992 | 03:06:13,859 --> 03:06:24,089 | one of those levels where there's a lot of reason for you to be wanting to be either out of the trade or have such a small little piece on. If you're gonna |
| 993 | 03:06:24,089 --> 03:06:35,789 | leave a runner on, it's about at that time, we usually peter out expecially if we do so when time is met, and that being 10 o'clock in the morning, New York |
| 994 | 03:06:35,789 --> 03:06:45,149 | local time to new, that's London close. So for your notes Ceci with the folks that are brand new, when markets are going down, are expecting the daily candle |
| 995 | 03:06:45,149 --> 03:06:54,779 | to be a down closed candle between two o'clock and five o'clock. Good morning, generally you're going to see the high form. And generally, the New York session |
| 996 | 03:06:54,779 --> 03:07:02,129 | between seven o'clock in the morning, nine o'clock in the morning in New York local time, will create a continuation pattern. Now, sometimes, there's a |
| 997 | 03:07:02,129 --> 03:07:12,839 | reversal of that, where London creates a high sells off and in New York runs out the London high, but then reverses and makes the lower clothes in a day. Those |
| 998 | 03:07:12,839 --> 03:07:21,839 | are always on the heels of a higher medium impact news driver. That's the only time that occurs. So how do you know when the low is not going to be taken out |
| 999 | 03:07:21,839 --> 03:07:29,849 | or the high is gonna be taken out in London, you can trust the New York session I just told you. May I show the chairs charge money for this one. So we can see |
| 1000 | 03:07:29,849 --> 03:07:38,219 | there's a lot of consolidation in here. We had a high it right above it if I was long on your this is running down equities. And the principal, you see me do it |
| 1001 | 03:07:38,249 --> 03:07:46,289 | all the time in trades, if I'm long. And admittedly, I was sleeping last night preparing for all this. So I didn't trade euro and I've been trading Forex for a |
| 1002 | 03:07:46,289 --> 03:07:55,169 | while now. As soon as it trades above this high, you want to be taking partial and exiting your position. It's offset distribution. And the principal is |
| 1003 | 03:07:55,169 --> 03:08:04,169 | running down equity at means you're you're selling to buy stops, you're selling at new highs, your buying low and selling high. Where do you define high every |
| 1004 | 03:08:04,169 --> 03:08:12,389 | time it takes a swing high when you're long? If it's long in the tooth, or it's been going for a long time, like we did here since eight o'clock this morning. |
| 1005 | 03:08:13,109 --> 03:08:24,419 | It's good money practice for you to be selling every time it makes a new high if you have position and be able to do so, in my personal opinion. If you look at |
| 1006 | 03:08:24,419 --> 03:08:39,119 | what we're seeing here Do you see how the Euro has made higher high in the dollar didn't make that lower yet low at the same time. Market symmetry suggests |
| 1007 | 03:08:39,119 --> 03:08:50,519 | that in a perfect world, the US dollar should have made a lower low they're in concert with the higher high in Euro. This is a US DX SMT divergence that means |
| 1008 | 03:08:50,819 --> 03:09:04,319 | dollar, which is us dx and Euro are not in agreement with what they've done at a time of day that it's critical, loving close. So this would make me very, very |
| 1009 | 03:09:04,319 --> 03:09:13,379 | cautious to expect higher prices. And I'd be real content with closing all of my position in Long's on Euro dollar and going into the weekend happy that I |
| 1010 | 03:09:13,409 --> 03:09:30,839 | destroyed it. So anyway, that's the business there. For your study, you want to go into the June 13 live stream on my YouTube channel June 13 2023. For the |
| 1011 | 03:09:30,839 --> 03:09:41,789 | folks that are watching this in the future, then go to the seven minute and 22nd time on that video and you'll hear me outline these two levels here and this |
| 1012 | 03:09:41,789 --> 03:09:47,489 | entire range here and that would be the draw on liquidity that was mentioned on the 13th and that means we were over here |
| 1013 | 03:10:03,179 --> 03:10:18,119 | We're somewhere in here on the phone about Tom day we were talking, but we were using this idea that we would expand up into that on the 13th. And today we're |
| 1014 | 03:10:18,119 --> 03:10:27,749 | up here and through it. Okay. So when I'm looking for SMT divergence SMT divergences have never really settled on the real name for it, it's a smart |
| 1015 | 03:10:27,749 --> 03:10:37,829 | money technique or Smart Money tool, I use it interchangeably. It's just a matter of looking at the relationship between closely correlated assets or |
| 1016 | 03:10:37,829 --> 03:10:47,009 | inversely correlated assets, meaning that Euro dollar usually goes higher when dollar goes lower. But if you look at times when they don't agree, so if dollar |
| 1017 | 03:10:47,009 --> 03:10:59,189 | makes a lower low, a symmetrical market is a Euro dollar going higher high, a Euro dollar, making a lower low, and $1 index making a lower high, that is not |
| 1018 | 03:10:59,219 --> 03:11:11,579 | symmetrical, they have to agree. So Euro higher, high, lower low and dollar, euro lower low, higher high in dollar, if ever at any time that it's doing that |
| 1019 | 03:11:11,609 --> 03:11:24,209 | during key times of the day, which key times which key ties is today, for forex and currency pairs? London Open, New York open, one in close. Yes, you can trade |
| 1020 | 03:11:24,239 --> 03:11:34,829 | Asia, yes, there's opportunities in Asia. But the scope of this workshop today, I don't want to focus on the lowest volatility, I want to take you to where the |
| 1021 | 03:11:34,829 --> 03:11:43,289 | meat of these daily range moves. And for the weekly opportunities that are available. I'm telling you how to go in and see where these algorithmic price |
| 1022 | 03:11:43,289 --> 03:11:52,199 | swings are going to occur. Okay, so every institutional price when it forms in price action in forex, and the dollar are going to be primarily inside time when |
| 1023 | 03:11:52,199 --> 03:12:03,749 | as I'm telling you. Now by itself, you know, when I first started teaching, this is sceptics and skeptics alike, would come out and say, you know, this is |
| 1024 | 03:12:03,749 --> 03:12:13,859 | nonsense, all hindsight. But it's free it was for you to learn how to trust where these things will occur. And by pattern recognition, seeing it repeat over |
| 1025 | 03:12:13,859 --> 03:12:23,699 | and over again, you learn to trust that these are the times when things really happen. Now, the problem is everything I've done so far in this livestream |
| 1026 | 03:12:23,699 --> 03:12:33,299 | today, that's all foundational for you to determine how price is going to react and how it trades to where, but you can quickly see how many of the |
| 1027 | 03:12:33,299 --> 03:12:41,309 | opportunities that you think, are a surprise sometimes, you know, after they happen, because you're you're really not that versed in trading, the idea of |
| 1028 | 03:12:41,939 --> 03:12:53,189 | knowing how they form and why they form, what they're reaching for, helps you remove all that uncertainty. Now here's an, here's an incident, same thing here, |
| 1029 | 03:12:53,189 --> 03:13:03,869 | you can see how I told you that I would be done, I would be done, I would hold on anything longer for your dog, it's 1124, I would have already closed the |
| 1030 | 03:13:03,869 --> 03:13:16,319 | trade on this. If the Euro dollar goes higher in the dollar makes a lower low. I would miss whatever that move is on the upside on Euro. I would admittedly |
| 1031 | 03:13:16,979 --> 03:13:25,979 | because I'm obsessively compulsive, I would go back in there and try to justify, I'm not suggesting that you do this. But I want you to know that as your mentor. |
| 1032 | 03:13:26,369 --> 03:13:37,439 | This is a struggling point for me. So I had to have rules that stated that once I come to the conclusion that time is now at a period of time in a day where the |
| 1033 | 03:13:37,469 --> 03:13:45,359 | opposite and the range is formed where we've been seeing it go lower that means that the lowest probably forming sometime between 10 o'clock in New New York |
| 1034 | 03:13:45,359 --> 03:13:57,479 | local time for dollar that means that the highest forming sometime between 10 o'clock in new one euro dollar there can be like I mentioned earlier, in forex |
| 1035 | 03:13:57,479 --> 03:14:09,179 | and currency pairs there can be a bleed over into the afternoon in New York session. I am not worrying about the dollar or futures contracts or even the |
| 1036 | 03:14:09,179 --> 03:14:22,409 | Forex currencies. During that time of day, my focus would transition from Forex to stock index futures. So that would be my my trading day would move from Forex |
| 1037 | 03:14:22,409 --> 03:14:33,149 | overnight, and then go into bond trading in the morning, the morning session. And then I would do either do an overlap with index futures or finished my day |
| 1038 | 03:14:33,149 --> 03:14:42,689 | in forex, and then at London close all my focus goes to New York lunch hour trading the run on stops that was taking place on the holders of Long's or |
| 1039 | 03:14:42,689 --> 03:14:51,659 | shorts in stock index futures and then I would prepare for the afternoon session. And then I would do some kind of a bond trade in the last 30 minutes or |
| 1040 | 03:14:51,659 --> 03:15:01,199 | whatever on market on clothes. And that would be my trading day. That's that was how I did things. And when I stopped trading forex and went back to my roots of |
| 1041 | 03:15:01,199 --> 03:15:11,159 | which is index futures trading. Because that's where my focus is on teaching price action with that medium. But you can clearly see all the things I'm |
| 1042 | 03:15:11,159 --> 03:15:21,809 | teaching you here that are already in my YouTube videos. I'm taking my opinion of how I would teach the folks one on one. This is exactly what we doing every |
| 1043 | 03:15:21,809 --> 03:15:29,639 | day all week long. We going through every single thing that I told the person the previous week, what would happen? And they would give them a foundation. And |
| 1044 | 03:15:29,639 --> 03:15:37,199 | then come the middle of the week, I would say okay, based on what we're showing you, where would you focus on your trading? Where do you feel compelled to |
| 1045 | 03:15:37,199 --> 03:15:45,359 | trade? Do you want to trade on an hourly timeframe and try to get like short term intraday trades? Or do you want to scalp? Where are you using a 15 minute |
| 1046 | 03:15:45,359 --> 03:15:54,329 | or less? Or do you want to be a short term trader using primarily just the daily chart and using the open high low and closed for power three, to get your setups |
| 1047 | 03:15:54,329 --> 03:16:04,979 | to trade for one to three days of short term trading. And depending upon what the student would tell me, then I would spend the latter portions of the week |
| 1048 | 03:16:05,039 --> 03:16:15,779 | framing that out in a model for them so they can go home and start working with that. That's what I did in the mid 90s. So I want to kind of get through the |
| 1049 | 03:16:15,779 --> 03:16:35,519 | other markets and then teach you how to trade the FOMC Non Farm Payroll and CPI stuff. So let's go back up to a daily and go over to the pound in sumo the chart |
| 1050 | 03:16:35,519 --> 03:16:37,349 | up and get it set up. We'll take a five minute break |
| 1051 | 03:16:50,880 --> 03:16:52,110 | so you want to be a traitor |
| 1052 | 03:23:52,530 --> 03:24:01,320 | Alright folks one more time if you could just give me a five by five on Twitter let me know before I start talking again that you can hear me fine |
| 1053 | 03:24:24,540 --> 03:24:29,820 | Can you hear me? Not sure you can hear me. I'm checking Twitter by the way |
| 1054 | 03:24:38,610 --> 03:24:52,020 | thank you mo Professor chummy, thank you appreciate it. Alright, so we're looking at the keyboard market. So on the 13th of June 2023, the live stream for |
| 1055 | 03:24:52,020 --> 03:25:02,280 | your notes. If you go to the 14th Minute and 25 second, through the 16th minute and 10 second you you'll hear me talk about what I'm going to refer to here. So |
| 1056 | 03:25:02,280 --> 03:25:16,710 | it's not cherry picked. It's not hindsight, it's foresight being shown to you, in your face. Okay. So I mentioned that pound would likely move higher now, why |
| 1057 | 03:25:16,710 --> 03:25:29,400 | would pound move higher, because we are expecting the dollar index to go lower. So we measure, again, the same way we were doing with the Euro dollar moments |
| 1058 | 03:25:29,400 --> 03:25:38,400 | ago, you're constantly looking at the relationship between the dollar index and the market, you're trading. So it's in forex that you're trading, you're |
| 1059 | 03:25:38,400 --> 03:25:50,820 | constantly referring that you don't just simply look at the market you're looking at as a trade. And that's it. I don't know if this splitting the screen |
| 1060 | 03:25:50,820 --> 03:26:02,340 | into two requires a specific membership or whatever. I don't know, I can't recall, I know I have the highest one that is available. But it is what it is, I |
| 1061 | 03:26:02,340 --> 03:26:10,830 | mean, you're going to have to have some kind of way of having to charts. And while you don't need 12 monitors like I do, I don't need it. I'm sorry. But I |
| 1062 | 03:26:10,830 --> 03:26:19,740 | have to have monitors available to me, I'm constantly referring to all the markets I'm looking at to keep a good measure of, I don't have them open. Now |
| 1063 | 03:26:19,770 --> 03:26:28,350 | I'm in my trading office. But I'm literally just talking to you on a laptop, the one I used when I'm making my presentations all the time. So I'm only limited to |
| 1064 | 03:26:28,350 --> 03:26:39,870 | see what I'm showing you here. But at a minimum, you have to look at, if you're trading Forex, you want to have the dollar index. And whatever market you're |
| 1065 | 03:26:39,870 --> 03:26:54,840 | trading, you have to cycle through the timeframes. Okay. So on the 13th of June 2023, I did a live stream of talked about how the British pound would need to go |
| 1066 | 03:26:54,840 --> 03:27:06,630 | into this fair a gap, go above it and treat it as support before we would see a meaningful move up. And I said I wanted to see it trade up into this shaded area |
| 1067 | 03:27:06,630 --> 03:27:09,450 | here which I'll take you over to |
| 1068 | 03:27:15,720 --> 03:27:26,970 | that's the weekly gap. Okay, it's a fairway you got right there. So this inefficiency this inefficiency right here that has that big down close candle, |
| 1069 | 03:27:27,570 --> 03:27:43,200 | it's defined by the candle to the right that candles high and this candles low. So the candle lit right there. That's what I'm encapsulating in the analysis and |
| 1070 | 03:27:43,200 --> 03:27:53,220 | that was in the June 13 2023 livestream I said that we would expect that the trade off means that there's unfinished business up here, there were the terms I |
| 1071 | 03:27:53,220 --> 03:28:07,620 | used to drop into a 60 minute chart. Okay, you can see on the 13th is here we were talking and doing our business on the 13th all through here and I said I |
| 1072 | 03:28:07,620 --> 03:28:24,240 | want to see how we try to trade up into that gap that doesn't appear on this chart and then we go back into weekly visibility all intervals. So now we're |
| 1073 | 03:28:24,240 --> 03:28:35,730 | dropping this 60 minute chart it should appear here we go. But this this gap here is on the daily chart as I mentioned I want to see it act as support we |
| 1074 | 03:28:35,730 --> 03:28:44,400 | have a down close candle here which is an order block which is at the near top end of that range. We expand outside of it to come back down into the order |
| 1075 | 03:28:44,400 --> 03:28:54,750 | block which is the down close candle right there. And then look what we're doing we're working this level here, here and then that time right there on that |
| 1076 | 03:28:54,750 --> 03:28:55,920 | candle what time is that |
| 1077 | 03:29:14,550 --> 03:29:27,630 | that candle right there touching the top end of that daily February you got that told you on the 13th between 14 and 25 second in the 16 minute and 10 second |
| 1078 | 03:29:29,010 --> 03:29:43,110 | that minute marker for the June 13 2023 live stream for POUND DOLLAR I stated that I want to see it trade using that fear a gap a support permitting it to |
| 1079 | 03:29:43,140 --> 03:30:00,930 | trade as much as consequent coachmen which is midpoint okay. Because we have this down close candle and because we have the breaker low Hi Lower, low |
| 1080 | 03:30:01,140 --> 03:30:13,050 | extending and future or our buck bullish breaker, we have an order block here, trades down into it. And it's also working and respecting that old daily fear |
| 1081 | 03:30:13,050 --> 03:30:25,080 | Vega, which we're treating as a inversion of how you got remember on a daily chart that looks like this. It's this inefficiency on the downside here. And if |
| 1082 | 03:30:25,080 --> 03:30:32,550 | you think you understand what I'm teaching, because you watch one or two videos, and you think, oh, let's This is one of those optimal trade entries, it's got a |
| 1083 | 03:30:32,550 --> 03:30:40,980 | fair value gap. Let's go short there. That's not what you heard me say on the 13th of June. I said, we want to see a tree outside of it, come back down. And |
| 1084 | 03:30:40,980 --> 03:30:50,310 | you can see it happening here on the daily candlestick right there. So before I dropped down again, think about power three, power three is my accumulation, |
| 1085 | 03:30:50,340 --> 03:31:02,250 | manipulation and distribution theory. And it was the the major transition from relying on everything that I had learned from Larry Williams, and capitalizing |
| 1086 | 03:31:02,250 --> 03:31:10,830 | on something that he admitted, much like I admit, my weaknesses are my exits, I'm never satisfied, no matter how good they are, at the time, you know, |
| 1087 | 03:31:10,860 --> 03:31:20,970 | afterwards, I'm never satisfied with it. So I'm highly critical of myself in that regard when I shouldn't be. And that's why I try to teach you all, try not |
| 1088 | 03:31:20,970 --> 03:31:29,850 | to do those things, because it's plagued me my entire career. I don't find any satisfaction in any of that. But it's not about being perfect. And I'm pursuing |
| 1089 | 03:31:29,850 --> 03:31:44,190 | perfection. And I already know, I'm not gonna obtain it. But one of the things I heard Larry talk about in 1995, he said that his struggling point was |
| 1090 | 03:31:44,310 --> 03:31:52,500 | understanding how to be a buyer below the opening price, because most of what I was learning from him at the time and what he was teaching, I don't I haven't |
| 1091 | 03:31:52,500 --> 03:32:00,150 | kept up with him. I don't know what he's doing now and what he's done and evolved from what I was, I was learning from the 90s. But at the time, I bought |
| 1092 | 03:32:00,150 --> 03:32:14,700 | everything he had everything. So either it was given to me by friends in the industry. Sorry, Larry. But we were I paid for outright. And at the time, I |
| 1093 | 03:32:14,700 --> 03:32:22,890 | loved everything. And I wanted to use everything that he was teaching. And that was a problem. And that's what many of you do with my concepts. Don't do that. |
| 1094 | 03:32:23,610 --> 03:32:32,070 | Find your model. Look for what it is you're you're trying to trade what type of trade you're trying to be. Is it swing trading, short term trading, day trading, |
| 1095 | 03:32:32,130 --> 03:32:43,620 | intraday, scalping? And then what asset Are you going to focus on futures index futures, currencies and forex? Crypto, I don't trade crypto. But I have students |
| 1096 | 03:32:43,620 --> 03:32:53,340 | that have made lots of money trading crypto, and I can't cosign for it. But they swear by it working in there. So I have to be very careful because I do nothing |
| 1097 | 03:32:53,340 --> 03:33:02,370 | with crypto nothing. And I have no affinity for it. So that's why we won't talk about it. We don't talk about it, I do you think bitcoins going to zero. Anyway, |
| 1098 | 03:33:02,820 --> 03:33:24,480 | the low of this candle right there. After the opening, it trades down. Now, I'm not using this opening price. I'm using levels that I taught in the core content |
| 1099 | 03:33:24,480 --> 03:33:32,250 | for the day trading. I'll refer you back to that. For the life now I am one of them. Make a note of this in my notes, I can tell you what month it is. But if |
| 1100 | 03:33:32,250 --> 03:33:43,080 | you follow me on Twitter, right now, if you can recall what month it was that I did all the day trading stuff. Where I focused on day trading, I talked a lot |
| 1101 | 03:33:43,080 --> 03:33:50,670 | about opening prices in there, just for the life of me, I can't remember which module month it was, but it's already on YouTube channel. So I promise you it's |
| 1102 | 03:33:50,670 --> 03:34:01,770 | there, it's free. You can go look at it, but you can still use the trading view settings. I don't trust them entirely with this setting. But the principle is |
| 1103 | 03:34:01,770 --> 03:34:13,140 | this if you're bullish if we are bullish if I am bullish, I'm looking for the market to create these up close candles in draw into a level that I've already |
| 1104 | 03:34:13,140 --> 03:34:21,210 | predetermined. So right away we had buyside here wrestling bow here, we want to see get up into here because this is an unfinished business, this all this range |
| 1105 | 03:34:21,210 --> 03:34:33,240 | up here. This is the 14th. So this was the actionable day, because we were talking about it live on the 13th. But the day that you would be using the |
| 1106 | 03:34:33,240 --> 03:34:44,760 | information will be the very next day on the 14th. So we have the open, it trades down from the opening into the high of this gap. That's not supplying to |
| 1107 | 03:34:44,760 --> 03:34:55,110 | me. That's not it's not even trading back to this down close candle which you would see as an order block, right. This was the level I told you to watch but |
| 1108 | 03:34:55,140 --> 03:35:04,080 | permissible to the extent that you could trade them to have up which is essentially about right there, which would be mean what it can trade to the |
| 1109 | 03:35:04,080 --> 03:35:15,150 | opening price of that down close candle, which would be in what a Bullish order block, which is the reason why I said that. focusing primarily on using the, for |
| 1110 | 03:35:15,150 --> 03:35:27,330 | Vega as a form of support before we would see any meaningful run higher, this signature has to make its self present, we happen to open here and trade down, |
| 1111 | 03:35:27,450 --> 03:35:37,680 | that little movement down is what I refer to as a Judas swing. It's a fake moon. And all that's occurring on the 14th or Wednesday, yesterday, I know I have the |
| 1112 | 03:35:37,680 --> 03:35:49,560 | title of this live stream, that it is Friday. The reason why I did that is because my notes right here, I haven't thought Friday workshop. So that's why I |
| 1113 | 03:35:49,560 --> 03:35:58,980 | keep saying Friday, when I every time I look at my notes to keep myself on track. My subconscious is saying it's Friday, I know it's not Friday. But |
| 1114 | 03:35:58,980 --> 03:36:07,830 | because I wrote it incorrectly this morning, I keep running with that. So the livestreams title will change to Thursday, obviously. But that's not me editing |
| 1115 | 03:36:07,830 --> 03:36:13,710 | anything except for the title, all the content and everything's here, like you're all watching it. Many people are watching. And if I looked I'd probably |
| 1116 | 03:36:13,710 --> 03:36:23,520 | be nervous about how many people are doing that. But the soundtrack does know that I mentioned that this occurrence here would be what we favoring, in a way |
| 1117 | 03:36:23,520 --> 03:36:37,590 | we want to trade up into this range. Now, I've taught recently, and I don't recall what video it was. And this is where I'm weak as a mentor. I don't do a |
| 1118 | 03:36:37,590 --> 03:36:50,580 | lot of indexing or table content stuff. Because if I start that, I'll want to go nuts with it. And I just don't have the time to do it. And this is more than |
| 1119 | 03:36:50,580 --> 03:36:53,190 | enough. You're doing you're getting this for free. |
| 1120 | 03:36:54,600 --> 03:37:02,400 | And it's it's worth more than any outfit out there that you would buy as a course. Because it's been proven to you before it happened. I told you what to |
| 1121 | 03:37:02,400 --> 03:37:10,950 | look for. And I'm telling you now what I used to get that understanding, and it will repeat, it doesn't change, it doesn't fall away. These are the same things |
| 1122 | 03:37:10,950 --> 03:37:18,450 | that I've been using for 3030 years that work continuously over and over and over again, they will call these moves in the marketplace, which is the only |
| 1123 | 03:37:18,450 --> 03:37:29,490 | thing I promise, I can promise you that you will read price action very, very precisely. Whether you find profitability with it or not. That's the hard |
| 1124 | 03:37:29,490 --> 03:37:38,700 | question. Because you will bring in your own character flaws. Just like I have a character flaw with my acceptance of whatever I do as an exit all my positions, |
| 1125 | 03:37:39,450 --> 03:37:48,330 | whether they're profitable or not, I'm not satisfied with that. So I want you understand that I'm not AI, I'm a human being that I that that frustrates me. |
| 1126 | 03:37:48,840 --> 03:37:58,800 | And it's plagued me for 30 years, don't do those things with your development or create those things for your trading. Because if you do that early on, they will |
| 1127 | 03:37:58,800 --> 03:38:10,080 | derail you. And I actually learned majority of what I know, in my first three years. But I messed up by trying to change things improve things that were |
| 1128 | 03:38:10,080 --> 03:38:19,320 | already perfect. And one of the things that I had set in my mind that I would have a perfect exit. And I'm never going to have that I'm convinced I'm never |
| 1129 | 03:38:19,320 --> 03:38:28,590 | gonna have it. But because I'm wired to be obsessively compulsive, I wrestle with that. So I teach you how to overcome that by not trying to go into it in |
| 1130 | 03:38:28,590 --> 03:38:39,150 | the early stages of your training. Because if you create character flaws in your trading early on, you wrestle with them for the rest of your life. And there is |
| 1131 | 03:38:39,150 --> 03:38:48,690 | no magic eraser to get rid of them. You wrestle with them the rest of your life. Every time I look at a market move, if it's something I wasn't watching, and it |
| 1132 | 03:38:48,690 --> 03:38:59,550 | happened, even though I know I didn't need that move. It pisses me off that I didn't have it recorded and executed so I can show it to the community. Because |
| 1133 | 03:38:59,550 --> 03:39:08,910 | I know I wouldn't be in that trade. I'm sometimes thinking about a trade that I got hurt in. And because I see something that myself, I've looked at things for |
| 1134 | 03:39:08,910 --> 03:39:18,540 | 30 years. And if I see something and I got hurt and it in the past, I remember that and it's a distraction. And I wrestle with that you don't have that yet. |
| 1135 | 03:39:18,570 --> 03:39:27,600 | you're brand new, you don't have those war stories and scars that you have to go Yeah, remember to happen, but that's not destroyed. So that's the reality of |
| 1136 | 03:39:27,600 --> 03:39:39,900 | this. You're going to pick up a lot of painful scars, and wrestle through that the rest of your career. Nobody, nobody ever gets to a point of mastery, where |
| 1137 | 03:39:39,900 --> 03:39:48,330 | they don't have any kind of emotional tug of war that takes place because if they have real experience, invariably your mind is going to go back to a time |
| 1138 | 03:39:48,330 --> 03:39:56,910 | when you want to trade it looks similar to this one, and then you got to push through it and stick to the rules. The rules say stay with the trade. I don't |
| 1139 | 03:39:56,910 --> 03:40:04,290 | care if it hurt me this many times, years and years ago. It looks like the way it does, you see all these guys that make, I'm getting somewhere, by the way |
| 1140 | 03:40:04,290 --> 03:40:13,200 | with this, the the folks that draw out these charts and says, look at this, the last time in 1929, the chart looked like this is going to crash. And everybody's |
| 1141 | 03:40:13,200 --> 03:40:22,320 | been calling for the crash through the summer. And I said, I don't think we're going to crash, I don't think we're going to consolidate, we could consolidate. |
| 1142 | 03:40:22,440 --> 03:40:35,220 | But I think we're going to go up higher. And we've been going higher. So it my roles, stated that I should have looked for an expected as you know, I wanted to |
| 1143 | 03:40:35,220 --> 03:40:43,890 | see the seasonal influence that I like to see that takes us into a low on June. And they have that little bit of drop. But that seasonal tendency didn't didn't |
| 1144 | 03:40:43,890 --> 03:40:53,520 | materialize. And throughout that seasonal tendency, you heard me calling it higher, that was only learned by experience, but also stated that when a |
| 1145 | 03:40:53,520 --> 03:41:05,010 | seasonal tendency is likely to occur. A seasonal tendency, by the way, if you're new, is simply a certain time of the year, certain month a year. Certain asset |
| 1146 | 03:41:05,040 --> 03:41:15,600 | classes or a particular market performs a certain way, more times than not. So it's like a while it's like a seasonal tendency for for snow, you know, it's not |
| 1147 | 03:41:15,600 --> 03:41:27,480 | likely to snow in New York in July. And it's not likely to go to 90 degrees in February in New York. When that stuff happens, we probably need to be paying |
| 1148 | 03:41:27,480 --> 03:41:35,670 | attention but generally seasonal tendency state that they use or the normalcy Well, there's, there's a factor in the marketplace that we refer to as acetyl. |
| 1149 | 03:41:35,700 --> 03:41:48,510 | NZ, that I was expecting us many times over the years that the low forms in June. And there's a decline, the last week of April, going down into mid mid |
| 1150 | 03:41:48,510 --> 03:42:00,210 | week of the second week of June. Now, it doesn't form all the time. But as I indicated in my lessons about seasonal tendency on my YouTube channel, and also, |
| 1151 | 03:42:00,210 --> 03:42:11,070 | as I mentioned recently, in the last few months, that if a seasonal tendency does not form or continue like it does in the past. The fact that it's not there |
| 1152 | 03:42:11,100 --> 03:42:22,350 | many times is a very strong indication, like for instance, I'll give an example, I would liked, I would have liked rather to see the stock index futures to trade |
| 1153 | 03:42:22,350 --> 03:42:32,400 | lower throughout May into the first or second week of June. That's what I wanted to see. Now wanting to see something and then taking that one and then trying to |
| 1154 | 03:42:32,400 --> 03:42:39,930 | impose your will in the marketplace and try to force a trade into it. That's what I did when I was 20 years old. And that's how I blew my accounts. When I |
| 1155 | 03:42:39,930 --> 03:42:50,400 | did those things I was forcing my will and what I wanted to see happen versus sticking to what the markets telling me now as a more refined analyst, when I |
| 1156 | 03:42:50,400 --> 03:43:01,560 | look at price action now. I differ all the I want I want versus what is this algorithm telling me what's price action showing me in the chart. And a lot of |
| 1157 | 03:43:01,560 --> 03:43:09,120 | people were trying to you know, look for shorts, and the older timer guys were saying the markets gonna consolidate. And I said, Okay, well, if the older crowd |
| 1158 | 03:43:09,120 --> 03:43:16,260 | saying we're going to consolidate, and the retail same gonna crash, I'm going to trust everything that saying that it's going to go higher. So if they're going |
| 1159 | 03:43:16,260 --> 03:43:24,030 | to go higher, was it going to reach for buy stops and inefficiencies. And that's why it took you to the weekly chart and a daily chart to also answer the folks |
| 1160 | 03:43:24,030 --> 03:43:31,440 | that don't want to day trade. They want to see longer, higher timeframe, tired timeframe, rather, perspective, they don't like the one minute chart stuff, |
| 1161 | 03:43:31,530 --> 03:43:40,230 | okay? Because they think that that's, you know, useless to them, that that same thing that I'm using an hour I'm sorry, a one minute chart, I'm using on a 15 an |
| 1162 | 03:43:40,230 --> 03:43:51,930 | hourly for our daily, weekly, monthly. It's the same thing, the same idea that I'm using inefficiencies and liquidity, and market structure. There's a there's |
| 1163 | 03:43:51,930 --> 03:44:00,330 | a plethora of setups that are happening all day long, all day long. And you're never going to run out ourselves. But the problem is, is you're not giving |
| 1164 | 03:44:00,330 --> 03:44:09,090 | yourself a chance to trust what you're learning is going to give you more than you ever need. Like I could be here all day long, every single day, all night |
| 1165 | 03:44:09,090 --> 03:44:19,110 | long. Finding setups here, they're all over the place. If I pushed like that, I will take losing trades more than you see me showing you. But I have learned |
| 1166 | 03:44:19,380 --> 03:44:33,210 | where I want to take initiative and say I want to only work here. I have insight that allows me to be more accurate in that regard. But I teach you how to find |
| 1167 | 03:44:33,210 --> 03:44:43,650 | that and I'm doing it today, how to find the choicest cream of the crop setups for the week in live there. Once you nail down a win like that, stop. Don't |
| 1168 | 03:44:43,650 --> 03:44:51,330 | Don't try it again. If you're a YouTuber, stop, let your audience see that you're controlling yourself and you have discipline. It doesn't matter if you |
| 1169 | 03:44:51,330 --> 03:44:57,930 | come back the next day and you trade in your life. And you say I think I should be done. You're asking your audience whether you should stop trading or not and |
| 1170 | 03:44:57,930 --> 03:45:06,120 | you're not in control. You're being driven by your audience. So that's another thing that you have to ask yourself, why are you learning how to trade are you |
| 1171 | 03:45:06,120 --> 03:45:16,020 | wanting to be a YouTuber, where you're allowing the, the influence of your viewers? While you're trying to act like the influencer, if you act in a manner |
| 1172 | 03:45:16,020 --> 03:45:24,210 | that you're trying to teach or showcase what you're doing, and you're allowing this audience to influence whether you take a trade or not, you're not in |
| 1173 | 03:45:24,210 --> 03:45:35,130 | control. You're letting outward things, create impulsive decisions about you taking on risk. So it's important not to get wrapped up in it, I don't listen to |
| 1174 | 03:45:35,130 --> 03:45:45,600 | people to say dance for me, monkey, I'm not doing it. I know what I make mistakes in. And when I get impulsive, my emotions, and I'm bipolar, I can't |
| 1175 | 03:45:45,600 --> 03:45:56,220 | trade. When I'm in a manic episode, I can't trade when I'm in a euphoric episode. So it takes a great deal of focus for me to even have these types of |
| 1176 | 03:45:56,220 --> 03:46:10,830 | discussions with you. Sometimes, it's next to impossible. And if you listen to episodes in the past, where I get either emotional, or I go off the rails and |
| 1177 | 03:46:10,830 --> 03:46:19,230 | get a little bit more belligerent than I should, it's not because I plan to do it, it's because I have a chemical imbalance. So I have very rigid rules that |
| 1178 | 03:46:19,230 --> 03:46:28,440 | I've had to place on myself much more rigid than the average person. Because I battle a mental illness that is very hard for me to wrestle sometimes, in trying |
| 1179 | 03:46:28,440 --> 03:46:38,280 | to trade and be in an industry, it's highly technical like this. It's it's not easy, it's really not easy. So anyway, talking about the power three concept is |
| 1180 | 03:46:38,280 --> 03:46:42,810 | the accumulation, accumulation, manipulation and distribution, |
| 1181 | 03:46:44,250 --> 03:46:53,610 | concept of using it on a interval, any timeframe. But I introduced it with the daily chart, because like I mentioned in the beginning of all that rant, I warn |
| 1182 | 03:46:53,610 --> 03:47:01,800 | you, they could probably come up. I learned that Larry whims, diver, I never found that if you ever figured it out, because he mentioned the timing, identify |
| 1183 | 03:47:01,800 --> 03:47:12,360 | that he had a weakness or an uncertainty as to how to determine when to be a buyer, below the opening price before you see these big ranges. And at the time, |
| 1184 | 03:47:12,840 --> 03:47:24,150 | I was learning under his tutelage of his books in his VHS tapes and courses. That's how I was learning. He was my first real mentor. And I still have a great |
| 1185 | 03:47:24,150 --> 03:47:34,320 | deal of respect for him. But I did move away from most of what he taught and what I learned from him. But there is a hallmark to a lot of the things that |
| 1186 | 03:47:34,740 --> 03:47:47,490 | stayed with me because they're just market truisms. A market day to has a big range. He taught that usually the open is near the low or the high of the day. |
| 1187 | 03:47:47,520 --> 03:47:55,470 | So how do you use that information, if it's expected to be a bullish day. And remember, go back into the 13th livestream. If you haven't watched that |
| 1188 | 03:47:55,470 --> 03:48:04,620 | livestream, I promise you don't watch it after this on test, because we're going a long time today, tomorrow or over the weekend, sometime watch the 13th of June |
| 1189 | 03:48:04,620 --> 03:48:15,510 | 2020, three's live stream. And all those things I'm talking about. You'll be able to see this forming here. But when you're looking at a day, when you're |
| 1190 | 03:48:15,510 --> 03:48:29,310 | anticipating, bullishness, you're expecting not just one day of movement up, which is why I take you into the weekly chart, that weekly chart might have only |
| 1191 | 03:48:29,310 --> 03:48:39,120 | a one day event that creates the run to what we would expect as a draw on liquidity. A draw on liquidity is where price is likely to reach to whether it's |
| 1192 | 03:48:39,120 --> 03:48:48,540 | reaching down for sell stocks below an old low or too reaching down to a fair value gap. That's the only reason why price goes down. That's That's it in |
| 1193 | 03:48:48,540 --> 03:48:59,640 | reverse when it's likely to go higher. But we look at the weekly chart with the expectation that is an expansion. We don't need to predict the close of the |
| 1194 | 03:48:59,640 --> 03:49:10,320 | weekly candle. We're just looking for this price movement with magnitude reaching into an objective that we've already identified on a weekly chart. So |
| 1195 | 03:49:10,350 --> 03:49:18,360 | because of that, we're taking that insight and we're transposing it to our lower timeframe charts daily for our one hour and anything less all the way down to |
| 1196 | 03:49:18,810 --> 03:49:30,960 | five second charts. I said that correctly five second charts. So if we're bullish, and we've arrived at the dollar going lower cable or POUND DOLLAR, as |
| 1197 | 03:49:30,960 --> 03:49:38,430 | we see here is likely to go higher and move up into this shaded area, which is what I referred to as the unfinished business. If it's going to go higher, |
| 1198 | 03:49:38,460 --> 03:49:47,460 | where's it going to go? Well, you have this high to this low and what has already happened. We went to this high here. So what's resting above the high |
| 1199 | 03:49:47,580 --> 03:50:05,460 | buyside. So the minimum threshold would be to what reach up to where is it a trick question by the way If you're buying here, at the top it is February gap. |
| 1200 | 03:50:05,460 --> 03:50:14,040 | So that doesn't mean that we would be expecting something in the form. When we did our live stream on the third 13th of June, we would expect the market to |
| 1201 | 03:50:14,040 --> 03:50:26,970 | open trade down any down movement into this gap will be treated as a Judas swing or a fake the Klein, retail will chase this every day. They get caught up in it, |
| 1202 | 03:50:26,970 --> 03:50:35,760 | they want to get short on a breakout, they're using some five minute 15 minute breakout role in London or New York or whatever, you know, and that is a fake |
| 1203 | 03:50:35,790 --> 03:50:45,180 | move. It's designed to do that very thing. Why would it be interesting to do that, because those sell stops being triggered to get traders short chasing it, |
| 1204 | 03:50:45,180 --> 03:50:54,210 | they think it's going lower is the perfect counterparty the smart money going in and buying it because they're the sell side to their buy. Every long has that a |
| 1205 | 03:50:54,210 --> 03:51:08,640 | sell side, every short has to have a long side. So the the dance between liquidity and how it's utilized in price delivery, you have to take a step back |
| 1206 | 03:51:08,670 --> 03:51:19,050 | away from thinking about things in terms of overbought, oversold and indicator settings and things like that. And look at who's available right now to take the |
| 1207 | 03:51:19,050 --> 03:51:31,170 | other side of my trade and utilize that as like a bus stop, okay, or mile marker between where you are and where it's ultimately going. Terminus is your low |
| 1208 | 03:51:31,170 --> 03:51:42,480 | hanging fruit objective. That is not the end of the move. Terminus is just where you define where the low hanging fruit objective is, if it just gets that far, |
| 1209 | 03:51:42,510 --> 03:51:53,670 | you've made money. If it reverses, they're great. You've already made honey. If it continues, you have something there that could potentially pay more. But you |
| 1210 | 03:51:53,670 --> 03:52:01,920 | don't need it to notice what that would do for you. If you haven't considered what that would impact you in terms of your psychology as a trader. You're not |
| 1211 | 03:52:01,920 --> 03:52:12,090 | putting so much unrealistic expectation on yourself. You're literally just placing a realistic objective. And what would that be? If you're going long |
| 1212 | 03:52:12,090 --> 03:52:28,440 | here, and it runs out and hits the low end of the imbalance. That's profit partial one. Now, if it doesn't go to consequent corrosion of that wick, what do |
| 1213 | 03:52:28,440 --> 03:52:40,710 | you think of that? That's a partial. Why? What I said earlier, whenever there's a high or a low that you're expecting to be breached, traded To and Through. If |
| 1214 | 03:52:40,710 --> 03:52:51,420 | there is a wick or a tail consequent encroachment, that midpoint, you must always every single time without deviation must take a partial always it's in |
| 1215 | 03:52:51,420 --> 03:53:03,870 | stone, have it in your journal, have it in your psyche, expect it do it always. Then you have the buy side. Now we're expanding. Am I mentioned that cable could |
| 1216 | 03:53:03,870 --> 03:53:19,110 | trade up into this area here? Because it's unfinished business? What levels above this buyside can we utilize? Well, I taught this. I don't remember if it |
| 1217 | 03:53:19,110 --> 03:53:32,130 | was in Twitter spaces. Or if I think I did a live stream. I'm almost certain I did a live stream at least I might be having a senior moment here. I believe I |
| 1218 | 03:53:32,130 --> 03:53:42,480 | did it. I don't know, I gotta I'm second guessing myself now. But here is the gradient levels, I'm almost certain I did a live stream mentioned this. But the |
| 1219 | 03:53:43,320 --> 03:53:56,430 | the low end of the gap, which is all the shaded area here, okay. Above this high, we have the low quarter percent, the lower quarter gradient level of this |
| 1220 | 03:53:56,430 --> 03:54:09,270 | entire range, then we have consequent graduates as midpoint, we steam through that. So the next objective would be 127 754. That's a finite number. It's it's, |
| 1221 | 03:54:09,360 --> 03:54:19,140 | it's a static number. So if you were targeting that for another partial, you would factor in spread. So you would deduct whatever your typical spread is for |
| 1222 | 03:54:19,140 --> 03:54:28,230 | your POUND DOLLAR, forex pair, and then you would have a limit order sitting there. And if it were to expand up into that, you'd have a partial, and there it |
| 1223 | 03:54:28,230 --> 03:54:36,900 | is, if you're inclined to hold over the weekend, and you feel like it's gonna open up higher, which it could do open up above it and trade down and fill in |
| 1224 | 03:54:36,900 --> 03:54:43,920 | the Atlas. I'm playing devil's advocate for a moment saying, and I don't know this because I'm talking to you as I'm watching it. But let's just say it makes |
| 1225 | 03:54:43,920 --> 03:54:53,400 | the high that they already here and it's done. We could get open higher on Sunday, and then trade down to this and fill the gap and that would be a |
| 1226 | 03:54:53,400 --> 03:55:02,460 | scenario if you're willing to hold over the weekend. I'm not trying to entice you if you're in it to do that. On this Given you scenarios how I would think |
| 1227 | 03:55:02,460 --> 03:55:11,460 | about it, and when I was using over the weekend holds, when I would trade and hold positions from Friday's close into Sunday's opening. This idea I would use |
| 1228 | 03:55:11,460 --> 03:55:20,700 | in this context here because this is still exposed. This is the other portion of that inefficiency on the weekly chart. Remember all this movement from high to |
| 1229 | 03:55:20,700 --> 03:55:34,050 | low, that shaded area was one weekly candle where it only was going down. So to reprice efficiently, we're seeing price deliver on the upside. So until it gets |
| 1230 | 03:55:34,050 --> 03:55:43,020 | up to this point here, there is an inefficiency in the form of a sell side of balanced bison and efficiency on that weekly chart. These are the parts where |
| 1231 | 03:55:43,020 --> 03:55:50,400 | you get lost. And this is why it's important that you make sure that you rewind the video, and scrub back to the parts where I actually show the weekly chart so |
| 1232 | 03:55:50,400 --> 03:55:57,600 | you can remember what I'm showing you here. But it's important by having these higher timeframe invitations on your weekly chart, and then showing them on |
| 1233 | 03:55:57,660 --> 03:56:11,850 | every timeframe, you won't be you won't be surprised, the things that generally have happened to you in the past, probably won't be a issue for you, when you |
| 1234 | 03:56:11,850 --> 03:56:24,420 | start doing this. Trying to hit the delete button, last session page down 50 year old eyes. Alright, so anyway, we're going to take a look at the 14th how we |
| 1235 | 03:56:24,420 --> 03:56:28,560 | trade it in here. And it will drop into a 60 minute chart. |
| 1236 | 03:56:35,880 --> 03:56:49,770 | Alright, so here is the 14th at two o'clock, that's the beginning of what London Open kill zone. So the low actually, prior to that, at one o'clock, that's a |
| 1237 | 03:56:49,770 --> 03:57:04,230 | European Open London Open kills two o'clock to five o'clock in the morning, your critical time, then we gap up in here, rip off into and and look at the bodies |
| 1238 | 03:57:04,380 --> 03:57:17,460 | here. That's the low of that weekly imbalance that everybody got. That's the signature I like to see, when you start seeing moves form any respect these |
| 1239 | 03:57:17,460 --> 03:57:30,240 | higher timeframe, inefficiencies or areas where the real gap would be or we're not talking about new weak opening gaps. Today, we're not talking about New Day |
| 1240 | 03:57:30,240 --> 03:57:39,750 | opening gaps, by the way, in case you're wondering. But we're working with higher timeframe, weekly, and daily inefficiencies. And this is the real Support |
| 1241 | 03:57:39,750 --> 03:57:50,130 | Resistance you're looking for, like one of the things that I tried to do was determine a way of picking what retail support resistance should be. And always |
| 1242 | 03:57:50,130 --> 03:57:58,920 | this is the one you use. I would always get them wrong. Sometimes I'd be right. But most of the time, I'd get them wrong. So what I wanted to do was determine |
| 1243 | 03:57:58,920 --> 03:58:08,880 | how I could bridge the gap between the expectancy of traders to see what is a support and what is a resistance and what qualifies and quantifies a support or |
| 1244 | 03:58:08,880 --> 03:58:19,110 | resistance. And I found out that the largest degree of precision is around these inefficiencies. And anybody can say, oh, everybody's known about gaps. |
| 1245 | 03:58:19,380 --> 03:58:30,660 | Everyone's known about inefficiencies. But once they close in, they're done with them. I'm not their treasures to me, I'm holding on to them for months. And the |
| 1246 | 03:58:30,660 --> 03:58:40,530 | algorithm will refer back to it, which is why I keep a 60 day look back on my charts. I'll go back 60 days and any old PDA right whether it be a fair Vega, |
| 1247 | 03:58:40,530 --> 03:58:49,080 | breaker, anything like that, I will refer to it if it's in the proper context of what I'm looking for. What does that mean? I stated on the 13th of June that I |
| 1248 | 03:58:49,080 --> 03:58:59,580 | was bearish on dollar. And we would want to see the British pound trade up into all this area here is that the inefficiency from the weekly chart? It has |
| 1249 | 03:58:59,610 --> 03:59:11,070 | unfinished business. What we're seeing it expand up and it's done. It's done it energetically. But where did it start on the 14th right here at London and in |
| 1250 | 03:59:11,070 --> 03:59:25,650 | rallied up we have a wick. What is the wick dealing here? damage damage, it trades down outside of that gap. Does it go to some random level |
| 1251 | 03:59:36,750 --> 03:59:46,140 | see where it stops in the middle of that fear Vega. That's consequent encouragement. That's a signature when I see this when I see that right there |
| 1252 | 03:59:46,200 --> 03:59:56,220 | and it pulls back up into it. I'm still staying with the narrative that this is gonna go higher. This does not change my mind. It does not freak me out even |
| 1253 | 03:59:56,220 --> 04:00:06,090 | this going down outside of the the shaded area again This is what I refer to as a mohawk. The little tiny little reason why I mentioned it's a little Hawk is |
| 1254 | 04:00:07,650 --> 04:00:16,230 | when you cut your grass, Okay, gentlemen, you got there cutting them on, and you're listening to the radio, you're looking at your next January, she's |
| 1255 | 04:00:16,230 --> 04:00:23,490 | wearing a bikini and your wife ain't looking. And you just move the mower too far over and you leave that little tiny little Mohawk, you got to come back in |
| 1256 | 04:00:23,580 --> 04:00:32,040 | and get it. Well, that's kind of like what this is, is a little tiny, little Mohawk outside the range of where you had your Mellor. We allow for that. Okay, |
| 1257 | 04:00:32,040 --> 04:00:40,890 | maybe your wife doesn't allow you looking at your neighbor in her bikini, but we allow this in price action is permissible for price delivery. But notice what's |
| 1258 | 04:00:40,890 --> 04:00:52,830 | occurring the bodies here. And the bodies here, they're real close proximity to that shaded area. So we treat this as okay, it's no problem. Even though it got |
| 1259 | 04:00:52,830 --> 04:01:01,890 | real close to that low, the damage was done on that wick, it returned into this fair value gap. It was consequent encouragement, all of this in here, I would be |
| 1260 | 04:01:01,890 --> 04:01:13,380 | watching it, I was not trading it, I would be watching it and saying okay, in my mind, if we were looking at it live, you wouldn't see me type out retail sees a |
| 1261 | 04:01:13,380 --> 04:01:25,110 | bear flag, drop their flag, and they would expect it to drop down like this. That's where I would be drawing in are typing in, excuse me, the fake Bear Flag. |
| 1262 | 04:01:26,160 --> 04:01:35,280 | So whenever you see me doing examples where I talk about what retail sees, it's in relationship to what I'm showing you here. Like this is this is real order |
| 1263 | 04:01:35,280 --> 04:01:44,190 | flow. And notice I haven't done anything with a ladder depth of market level two data, no profile stuff. It's just simply reading inefficiencies and liquidity |
| 1264 | 04:01:44,460 --> 04:01:55,470 | across the higher timeframe, transposed to lower timeframe. Staying with that premise, that dollar goes lower, its risk on all assets get to go higher stock |
| 1265 | 04:01:55,470 --> 04:02:09,990 | indices, the forex pairs, all that business, they get to go, they're free to move up. So you're Thursday, two o'clock in the morning. It's trading were at |
| 1266 | 04:02:09,990 --> 04:02:20,160 | the low of that weekly inefficiency or gap. And then we have the market take off rally. And let's go into a 15 minute timeframe. |
| 1267 | 04:02:25,980 --> 04:02:36,030 | Okay, so we have more information in here. This wick now has been refined to on a 50 minute timeframe. Consequent coachman's right about there, so it's trading |
| 1268 | 04:02:36,030 --> 04:02:47,760 | right at that point, consolidating just outside that range and then we have a short term high broke so now we have a shift in market structure at the low of |
| 1269 | 04:02:47,760 --> 04:03:09,420 | that weekly inefficiency that fear Vega so a shift in market structure. Is there a gap looking here is there a gap lowest down close candle now ICT you said you |
| 1270 | 04:03:09,420 --> 04:03:18,900 | use all the candles Why did you use them both there's candles that candles outside of that gap isn't an outside that shaded area so what do you do use the |
| 1271 | 04:03:18,900 --> 04:03:32,760 | down closed last one you thought you knew under order blocks you don't know anything yet? For shorter block down close candle trades into it you want to see |
| 1272 | 04:03:32,760 --> 04:03:44,940 | it repel price. Does it repel price? Yes. So at this point, you can take this entire range now for entry you're going to use it down close for support whether |
| 1273 | 04:03:44,940 --> 04:03:53,340 | the information is going to continue offering institutional sponsorship the price is going to continuously work off that level. Then you can take this range |
| 1274 | 04:03:53,370 --> 04:03:59,190 | and apply it here but the entry would be on that lowest down close candle I already hear two people hissing |
| 1275 | 04:04:05,340 --> 04:04:14,970 | it supports it here support to hear it look where the bodies are stopping. See that? Why am I not using this down close candle in this down close can go ICT |
| 1276 | 04:04:15,060 --> 04:04:25,350 | it's inside the shaded area right? The gap, we have to use the outside of the range. Okay, so we're inside of all this external range liquidity, we have to |
| 1277 | 04:04:25,350 --> 04:04:33,510 | use the PDA right it's made available inside of that and it's separated by this down I'm sorry, this up close candle. So that breaks the continuity of down |
| 1278 | 04:04:33,510 --> 04:04:42,840 | closed down close up close. That's a change in state delivery. Then we go back into down closed down close. So the change in state delivery is the open on this |
| 1279 | 04:04:42,840 --> 04:04:56,430 | price there. But for entry purposes we use that last enclosed candle but for supporting for a reclaimed order block. Go back into month four of the inst the |
| 1280 | 04:04:56,700 --> 04:05:07,980 | mentorship these two down close candles It's been reclaimed here, in here. And we can see that opens and closes here that's supportive. And then we have one |
| 1281 | 04:05:07,980 --> 04:05:20,040 | more little wick through it. Because why did wicks do the damage, you don't rush your stop loss, don't rush it up. market breaks above here then takes off |
| 1282 | 04:05:20,490 --> 04:05:32,880 | clearer side by side. And then when you expanding sense stretches to be a little bit of range still here but ultimately we're aiming for this. That's a that's a |
| 1283 | 04:05:32,880 --> 04:05:40,260 | perfect delivery thing get up to that point. Will it do so before the closer today? I don't know. I don't need to do it because I'm not trading, but you knew |
| 1284 | 04:05:40,260 --> 04:06:00,030 | about it on the 13th of June. Alright, so. Alright, let's go to NASDAQ. We only have four more markets to cover. I'll be blending in FOMC setups and how to |
| 1285 | 04:06:00,030 --> 04:06:17,280 | trade that stuff as we talked about each. So get back to daily NASDAQ. Alright, so there is the setup that you saw me trade yesterday on my cell phone. So I |
| 1286 | 04:06:17,280 --> 04:06:24,930 | apologize. I know some of you are like, Why don't you record the whole thing looking because I had a guy here trying to teach me how to use my pole in user |
| 1287 | 04:06:24,930 --> 04:06:34,680 | setups and such. And it's something I'm not used to working with. And as he's talking to me, I told my wife that pay attention this part because I'm looking |
| 1288 | 04:06:34,680 --> 04:06:47,640 | at something. And I was trading the NASDAQ and I was able to capture a little bit of it. But anyway, the NASDAQ. Let's go back, let's take out put these |
| 1289 | 04:06:47,640 --> 04:06:49,410 | executions back on demand me a second. |
| 1290 | 04:06:54,870 --> 04:07:07,050 | So on the 30th of June, ahead of CPI, I mentioned that as I was meaning to mention earlier that didn't do so. But I'm gonna do here, CPI number, I am |
| 1291 | 04:07:07,050 --> 04:07:16,080 | generally not accurate ahead of it. Meaning that it's only been a few times publicly that I've expected certain things to unfold in CPI, and then it |
| 1292 | 04:07:16,080 --> 04:07:25,830 | happened. Most of the time, I'm wrong. So does it surprise you, when I tell you as my students not to try to trade ahead of CPI? It shouldn't surprise you. So |
| 1293 | 04:07:25,830 --> 04:07:34,740 | because I'm telling you not to trade in advance of something. I'm trying to illustrate to you in no uncertain terms that there's a great deal of risk in |
| 1294 | 04:07:34,740 --> 04:07:45,420 | doing so. So if I'm not able to do it, and I'm supposed to be teaching you, why would you want to trade it, you're gambling, I am gambling, if I try to |
| 1295 | 04:07:46,320 --> 04:07:54,660 | determine in advance what it's likely to do. So I set parameters up like I did on the 13th. I told you where the buy side and sell side was, I'll give you the |
| 1296 | 04:07:54,660 --> 04:08:00,510 | fair value gap. And then as each was traded to I told you what would be delivered to next. So we'll have to figure out how you get which we'll look at |
| 1297 | 04:08:00,510 --> 04:08:08,190 | in a minute, went down the sell side real quick on one minute, and then went for the buy side. And I told you, it's going to pull back in the middle it |
| 1298 | 04:08:08,190 --> 04:08:15,720 | consequent current of that range that defines both the buy side and sell side. And I'm probably talking too much for not having the chart in front of me. But |
| 1299 | 04:08:17,490 --> 04:08:32,760 | the main takeaway was because of of it being ahead of a CPI number, I was making allowance for the sell side below here. Which is right there on this day, I was |
| 1300 | 04:08:32,760 --> 04:08:43,590 | expecting it to be potentially a Wipeout, where did you come down spike into this and still resumed going higher. I was expecting because it's will be a |
| 1301 | 04:08:43,590 --> 04:08:53,910 | classic CPI. It's a classic FOMC type thing. It's a classic non farm payrolls event, where they use the smokescreen of that high impact news driver upset |
| 1302 | 04:08:53,910 --> 04:09:02,490 | daily liquidity, which would clearly you can see these are relatively equal. So there's a lot of sell stops resting, it's been trailed up through here. So |
| 1303 | 04:09:02,520 --> 04:09:11,610 | that's why I mentioned the CPI could potentially use that smokescreen, or the market rather could use that as a smokescreen, and drop down here and clear up |
| 1304 | 04:09:11,670 --> 04:09:21,270 | all the sell side here just on a WIC. And then we'd still be where we're at here and maybe even higher. It's it's a scenario offered up as a reason to be |
| 1305 | 04:09:21,270 --> 04:09:33,840 | cautious. If you stick to that, as what I expected for NASDAQ ahead of CPI, I was wrong. And that completely solidifies why I tell you don't try a trade ahead |
| 1306 | 04:09:33,840 --> 04:09:41,700 | of it. Because there's so many variables that can take place so many things can happen. Nobody really knows what it's going to do when it happens. And when it |
| 1307 | 04:09:41,700 --> 04:09:49,650 | does happen. I showed you and you watched it live that was over in there. And if you didn't see it live, it's in the recording. It's moving and traversing so |
| 1308 | 04:09:49,650 --> 04:09:57,540 | fast that there's no way you're getting filled in all brokers pull liquidity. You're not allowed to trade debt because I only mentioned the time in that |
| 1309 | 04:09:57,540 --> 04:10:06,750 | livestream. It opens them up to you unnecessary risk. So they claim that there's a absence of liquidity like traders aren't willing to trade it. There's a lot of |
| 1310 | 04:10:06,750 --> 04:10:17,160 | people out there trying to game on it. But they don't want the likelihood of some Yahoo getting lucky with an over leveraged trade that there be booking. And |
| 1311 | 04:10:17,160 --> 04:10:26,340 | be booking is when a broker trades against you. And yes, it does go on. But you know, if you might have trade well, you, you don't need to worry about that. So |
| 1312 | 04:10:26,340 --> 04:10:39,810 | here we have Thursday today, here's Wednesday, Tuesday, the 13th. As I was mentioning, I was expecting some some wild whipsaw. And CPI can can do those |
| 1313 | 04:10:39,810 --> 04:10:54,840 | types of things. But it was kind of muted to the downside, and offered still continuation up. So we're going to drop into a 60 minute chart. Okay, and you |
| 1314 | 04:10:54,840 --> 04:11:08,400 | can see how this type of move right here FOMC, CPI, Non Farm Payroll, all those things tend, they tend to be a characteristic of those types of new driver news |
| 1315 | 04:11:08,400 --> 04:11:19,860 | drivers. So a high impact news driver for your notes. It can occur on a medium impact news driver, but most of the time, the high impact news driver is when I |
| 1316 | 04:11:19,860 --> 04:11:32,940 | expect the worst case scenario in terms of where the safest retail spot of anyone that's in open profit, meaning the markets been going higher. This is a |
| 1317 | 04:11:32,940 --> 04:11:40,800 | general rule of thumb. So we're not really talking about this market, per se. It's every market. If the market has been going up for a while, and it's been |
| 1318 | 04:11:41,430 --> 04:11:51,600 | classically seen as an uptrend, everybody that's long should be in profit. A high impact news driver, my mindset is always going to run against that either |
| 1319 | 04:11:51,600 --> 04:12:05,430 | to reverse on them or to offset any trailed stop losses. So that way they can be utilized to be a Counterparty and then resume that existing primary uptrend. So |
| 1320 | 04:12:05,460 --> 04:12:17,430 | I'm always looking at these high impact news drivers to go after for the purposes of unseating profitable positions, and then it resumes. But if it |
| 1321 | 04:12:17,430 --> 04:12:27,690 | reverses, I'll know if it's a reversal at the time of delivery. So that's why I have to wait I have to wait for CPI. I have to wait for FOMC I have to wait for |
| 1322 | 04:12:27,690 --> 04:12:38,280 | non farm payrolls. If I'm going to trade them. Mythbusters ICT edition. You see people say ICT says never trade on Mondays? No, I tell you as a new student |
| 1323 | 04:12:38,280 --> 04:12:46,050 | learning don't trade on Mondays, let Monday trade, use the information that you get. Once you know how to trade, you can trade Mondays all day long. Okay, |
| 1324 | 04:12:46,230 --> 04:12:55,380 | that's the proper context of what I said. I teach my students don't try to trade Non Farm Payroll. But you can trade after Non Farm Payroll not 30 minutes after |
| 1325 | 04:12:55,380 --> 04:13:04,770 | Non Farm Payroll. Yeah, you can trade the gas, the inefficiencies and the liquidity. It's easy to trade it after. But it's next to impossible for you as a |
| 1326 | 04:13:04,770 --> 04:13:12,990 | new student or a new trader to feel confident or consistent trading Non Farm Payroll when you don't have experience? Does that sound like a responsible |
| 1327 | 04:13:12,990 --> 04:13:22,980 | person if I'm trying to teach you if you're learning something from someone, especially if you paid the harness? Wouldn't you want that person to guide you |
| 1328 | 04:13:23,280 --> 04:13:31,950 | away from where you're probably going to hurt yourself. That's what I'm trying to be as a mentor. That's what I've always maintained. Same way with CPI CPI can |
| 1329 | 04:13:31,950 --> 04:13:42,450 | rip your head off and shove it straight up your ass if you're wrong. That's the reality of that. It's so violent, so quick. If you're wrong, it's unforgiving. |
| 1330 | 04:13:42,930 --> 04:13:50,580 | The broker is not going to say well, I'm sorry. No, they're going to give you the worst case fill, your stop is not going to protect you, it's going to be the |
| 1331 | 04:13:50,580 --> 04:14:00,060 | worst case scenario. And it's probably going to be a instance where you wish this thought would have worked. And it's running even past your stop. And by the |
| 1332 | 04:14:00,060 --> 04:14:15,090 | time they remove all the the self imposed lack of liquidity, you'll get filled at the most Ill position or price. That's the way it works. So because I've seen |
| 1333 | 04:14:15,090 --> 04:14:24,570 | this for so many years, and I had my own experiences where I getting smashed around, my face ripped off on my headshot that moment is that type of experience |
| 1334 | 04:14:24,570 --> 04:14:36,060 | doesn't need to be repeated. Not in my students. So I'm trying to teach you how to avoid all that stuff. And it should be received with gratitude. Because I |
| 1335 | 04:14:36,060 --> 04:14:46,410 | wish I would have had someone telling me this stuff and saved me all this pain because it was very, very painful and troubling the wreck myself constantly not |
| 1336 | 04:14:46,410 --> 04:14:55,710 | knowing that. At the time, I thought I was only right. And you're gonna have those instances even learning with my concepts. You're gonna get overconfident. |
| 1337 | 04:14:56,490 --> 04:15:07,050 | It's going to happen it happens all the time my students They get this sense of invincibility. They're in it's, they're invulnerable, they can't, they can't do |
| 1338 | 04:15:07,050 --> 04:15:14,580 | it wrong. Now they figured it out, they cracked the algorithm. And then all of a sudden, you get that one simple, stupid little losing trade. And it's always |
| 1339 | 04:15:14,580 --> 04:15:21,780 | going to be on a high impact or medium impact news driver, where you thought you were going to do better than the rules. And I make that same mistake, when I |
| 1340 | 04:15:21,780 --> 04:15:27,990 | lose, it's me most of the time, always me trying to outperform an algorithm. |
| 1341 | 04:15:29,400 --> 04:15:38,460 | Because I've been here before, this looks like a time it's the human element that creeps in. So the more rigid you are about following rules that are not |
| 1342 | 04:15:38,490 --> 04:15:47,880 | infinite in the list, simple little rules, simple little rules, the things I outlined, when I tell you look for this level, that act as a means for a premium |
| 1343 | 04:15:47,940 --> 04:15:56,100 | to then distribute price lower to this discount. Okay, that's pretty simple. It's giving you a framework, then you simply wait for time. I've told you the |
| 1344 | 04:15:56,100 --> 04:16:05,970 | times that we're waiting for it. But now we're in stock indices. So it changes a little bit. Okay, it starts at 830 and goes to 11. There's your morning session, |
| 1345 | 04:16:06,060 --> 04:16:11,970 | then you have to worry about trading the lunch, are you a lunchtime trader? Yes, you can trade lunch, you've watched me whip the shit out of these markets |
| 1346 | 04:16:11,970 --> 04:16:20,820 | trading that lunch hour. But as a new trader, you shouldn't try to do that yet, stick to the morning session, then trade the afternoon session, or one or the |
| 1347 | 04:16:20,820 --> 04:16:27,840 | other. If you make money in the morning, don't try the afternoon as a new student, it doesn't mean everybody stops trading and don't trade the afternoon |
| 1348 | 04:16:27,840 --> 04:16:38,400 | session, because they made money ICTs giving you bullshit, whatever, because they want to cherry pick things out of context, I'm telling the new students |
| 1349 | 04:16:38,760 --> 04:16:50,460 | don't try to do a lot. Try to find one good setup per week, and then build on that over time. You can see clearly, there's a lot of opportunity, lots of |
| 1350 | 04:16:50,460 --> 04:17:01,590 | opportunity to find setups after setup after setup. But if you feel like a kid in the candy store, you're going to you're going to try to do everything. And |
| 1351 | 04:17:02,010 --> 04:17:12,180 | that's not a good thing. You want to have to pick your shots, know what you're trying to do, and focus on that only. And that's what these discussions help you |
| 1352 | 04:17:12,960 --> 04:17:23,790 | be reminded of. Because it's very easy. Once you start making money, whether it be in a demo, or funded account or live. You get drunk. Like you get drunk on |
| 1353 | 04:17:23,820 --> 04:17:31,290 | winning. And you think that it's not gonna air again, right now. It's still running, let me get an air again, it still got some more juice, and we get it |
| 1354 | 04:17:31,290 --> 04:17:39,780 | and then that's it. You give it all back, and more. And then you're mad at yourself. You mad at me because you think I caused this bullshit you brought on |
| 1355 | 04:17:39,780 --> 04:17:48,660 | yourself. If you didn't listen to the dry points and the boring parts, that's why you record yourself. And if you record yourself, go back and listen to those |
| 1356 | 04:17:48,660 --> 04:17:58,830 | boring parts of the lectures because that's the shit that keeps you on the straight and narrow. Say, Hey, here's NASDAQ hourly chart. And where are we at |
| 1357 | 04:17:58,830 --> 04:18:07,950 | here 8am. So we have this big wick here on an hourly chart |
| 1358 | 04:18:14,700 --> 04:18:30,180 | trying to figure out what this is here. I'll bring it back up in a second. Body to low and I had the gradients in here. Okay, so we can see two midpoint which |
| 1359 | 04:18:30,180 --> 04:18:39,030 | is consequent correction of a wick or tail. For your notes. I failed to mention this earlier. I apologize for the folks that don't know, I treat every one of |
| 1360 | 04:18:39,030 --> 04:18:51,150 | these tails in wicks. I treat them the same way as I do with a gap. Okay. The algorithm refers to that area as a inefficiency or a gap. So it's treated the |
| 1361 | 04:18:51,150 --> 04:19:05,340 | same way, midpoint is consequent encroachment. And if we are looking at this, this wick here or tail, the low for maintaining bullishness would be consequent |
| 1362 | 04:19:05,340 --> 04:19:18,450 | correction which was 15,054 and a half. So as long as price does not close below that everything stays bullish. The best scenario for continuation on the upside |
| 1363 | 04:19:18,570 --> 04:19:31,410 | would be from the high of the wicks or tail here down to consequent encouragement. Look at the bodies respecting the upper quadrant of this entirety |
| 1364 | 04:19:31,890 --> 04:19:42,480 | of this of this tail. There's the upper percentage of it or quarter of it look where the bodies are stopping the wicks do the damage. So when I'm watching |
| 1365 | 04:19:42,480 --> 04:19:53,700 | price, I don't have a fib. On the wicks, I'm looking at it. Okay, and I'm just eyeballing it roughing it like this when you watch me do executions when I'm |
| 1366 | 04:19:53,700 --> 04:20:02,310 | reading price action live candle by candle by candle and I may not go into the details like this. I'm looking at that and say, okay, roughly, that's about |
| 1367 | 04:20:02,310 --> 04:20:11,670 | half. And then what's half of that to the upside, we're about here. And I'm watching these candles, as it happens in this instance, or anything similar to |
| 1368 | 04:20:11,670 --> 04:20:23,370 | it, or the body stopping at, or real close to the upper quarter or half. If we start seeing a body going down into the 50%, or consequent encroachment and |
| 1369 | 04:20:23,370 --> 04:20:30,420 | starts going lower, or at a close rate on the consequent encroachment, that's a warning sign to me, I'm thinking, Okay, this is probably gonna give up the ghost |
| 1370 | 04:20:30,420 --> 04:20:40,410 | and go lower. But simply because these two lows here are in close proximity, that's not enough to warrant that this drop here is going to keep on going. I'm |
| 1371 | 04:20:40,410 --> 04:20:53,370 | looking at all these tails. And I'm measuring the willingness of the bodies to close and or open at their respective either the quarter percent, or half, its |
| 1372 | 04:20:53,370 --> 04:21:02,190 | consequent encroachment, or the upper quadrant, not wanting to see the lower quadrant isn't ever been revisited. And we're not seeing that here in the market |
| 1373 | 04:21:02,190 --> 04:21:09,390 | does, in fact, tear up higher. So it's one of those things I'm using and utilizing while I'm reading price tape reading with you or if I'm watching price |
| 1374 | 04:21:09,420 --> 04:21:23,040 | on Twitter, and I'm calling things out. I'm looking at all these things and weighing it all out. Okay, so we have a bounce price range in here. A bounce |
| 1375 | 04:21:23,040 --> 04:21:33,930 | price range. Okay, what is a bounced price range, it comes in many forms, I shouldn't say many comes in a couple forums. But as I was mentioning earlier, in |
| 1376 | 04:21:33,930 --> 04:21:45,210 | the workshop video, today, we have talked about how markets stay in a range. And when they leave that range, because upside and downside has been delivered. When |
| 1377 | 04:21:45,210 --> 04:21:54,870 | price, it makes it a balanced price range, what happens when it's done over the course of a couple of candles and not a multitude of candles. Think about it |
| 1378 | 04:21:54,870 --> 04:22:05,790 | like this. If I was in a live setting, say if I was on a stadium, or nasty stadium, if I was on a stage, okay, and it was in a room full lot of you. Okay, |
| 1379 | 04:22:06,360 --> 04:22:15,420 | I would right now asked by a show of hands by raising your hand up and you don't need to do it, I can't see you. So you're gonna raise your hand, if you have |
| 1380 | 04:22:15,420 --> 04:22:28,560 | been in trading long enough to remember what a key reversal is. Okay, a key reversal would be a day where it's like this. And this right here, all of this |
| 1381 | 04:22:28,560 --> 04:22:36,870 | movement here would be absent from the chart. And you would just see the market would be here one day, and then the next day it gapped down here. And then the |
| 1382 | 04:22:36,870 --> 04:22:43,920 | next day, it would be gapped up here. And all of this movement would be invisible, all this movement would be invisible, it will just be looking just |
| 1383 | 04:22:43,920 --> 04:22:59,190 | like that. Okay, that is a key reversal or a Island reversal. Very, very classic old school dinosaur type of trading. And that is essentially what I'm trying to |
| 1384 | 04:22:59,430 --> 04:23:11,100 | take your attention to, because that element of separation that once price goes to an extreme, which is what it's doing here, because see what we have here we |
| 1385 | 04:23:11,100 --> 04:23:21,570 | have a low, we run through that low and we do it on a very large candle. And then we come back all the way back over top of that again. So these two candles |
| 1386 | 04:23:21,570 --> 04:23:30,960 | are here. This represents a balanced price range because it's reached down to our level. And it's offered when one single pass all this move and the next |
| 1387 | 04:23:30,960 --> 04:23:45,270 | candle over here, one single pass. So the way I do this and I define it is this which which is higher this candles low that moves back inside of this up move of |
| 1388 | 04:23:45,270 --> 04:23:58,770 | this candle excuse me, this down close, I'm sorry, this down movement on this candle eats into this up close candle. But only to this point this low or this |
| 1389 | 04:23:58,770 --> 04:24:11,130 | low which one's higher. Clearly this one. This is the only candle that is defined in the range that this candle goes lower in this candle is goes lower. |
| 1390 | 04:24:11,250 --> 04:24:23,070 | So what I'm saying is the range is from here to here extended out. Okay, so this makes a balanced price range. All of this in here. I don't care about I care |
| 1391 | 04:24:23,070 --> 04:24:27,540 | less about that. What I'm looking at is this relationship |
| 1392 | 04:24:32,940 --> 04:24:38,370 | there must be the outline yet it's so it's the bottom one. |
| 1393 | 04:24:55,979 --> 04:25:07,589 | So that's the balance price range here. And what I'm what I'm doing and to convey to you is that because we had single pass down, single pass up, this is |
| 1394 | 04:25:07,589 --> 04:25:19,559 | balanced. Now, once we leave it here, what that means is this range, you define it by what I just showed you here, the highest, and the lowest extreme, between |
| 1395 | 04:25:19,739 --> 04:25:34,499 | both of these up close and down close candles, this entirety of that range low to high, where are the bodies of the candles over here stopping and has some |
| 1396 | 04:25:34,499 --> 04:25:45,359 | serious shipping. That's algorithmic. All the bodies, these candles here are respecting the midpoint of this bounce price range? How the fuck can you go back |
| 1397 | 04:25:45,359 --> 04:25:56,699 | through any retail stuff and see this being taught anywhere else, it's not, it's not anywhere. These are things that you wouldn't learn by any book, none of that |
| 1398 | 04:25:56,699 --> 04:26:00,059 | shit exists anywhere. This is stuff that's authorship. |
| 1399 | 04:26:12,090 --> 04:26:22,140 | So when I'm watching a balanced price range, or if I make mention of a bounce price range, what I'm suggesting to you is that there is a definitive boundary |
| 1400 | 04:26:22,140 --> 04:26:34,350 | that at which I don't want to see breached on a, on a candles body. Okay, I don't want to see it move beyond this. In this case, we were looking for what |
| 1401 | 04:26:34,350 --> 04:26:48,630 | for dollar move lower. So a lower moving dollar is what in other asset classes risk on, risk on is dollar lower. So dollar lower, all foreign currency higher, |
| 1402 | 04:26:48,750 --> 04:27:00,030 | and it gives the freedom for stock indices to go higher. Knowing that the dollar index and index futures are not locked step you every point higher is a lower |
| 1403 | 04:27:00,030 --> 04:27:13,290 | move in this or that it doesn't move like that. Okay, much like when I taught bonds in the yields, how the yields will move in, they'll cause a long term |
| 1404 | 04:27:13,290 --> 04:27:25,320 | effect on foreign currency, because they're going to chase that yield, but the yields can change, and the delay between all of that shifting in the currency. |
| 1405 | 04:27:26,310 --> 04:27:35,430 | It's not an immediate thing, just like Commitment of Traders net traders position, just because the commercials are net long, doesn't necessarily mean |
| 1406 | 04:27:35,460 --> 04:27:43,980 | it's time for you to go long. So there's rules to all these things. And that's why it's important not just to simply watch one video or one lecture, in think |
| 1407 | 04:27:43,980 --> 04:27:54,390 | you come away with understanding it doesn't work that way. But when I give a boundary to a marketplace, and I code in a limitation how far the markets gonna |
| 1408 | 04:27:54,390 --> 04:28:05,640 | go, it's limited to the degree of this is how far you're allowed to go. But then the wicks are permitted to do a certain measure of of damage, which is what |
| 1409 | 04:28:05,640 --> 04:28:17,040 | we're seeing right here. the halfway point of that range, nobody's going to look at this stuff here. Okay. In define it like that. It isn't anywhere else. Okay. |
| 1410 | 04:28:17,940 --> 04:28:28,440 | I codified this. So I want you to understand that these candlesticks are supporting the idea of the principle I'm teaching to you. It's not limited to |
| 1411 | 04:28:28,440 --> 04:28:39,240 | just this. It's happening every time I tell you, there's a balanced price range. This is the this is what's occurring. The markets returning back to equilibrium. |
| 1412 | 04:28:39,600 --> 04:28:46,950 | That's what this is here. Okay. It's not consequent encroachment. It's not mean threshold, its equilibrium. A bounce price range is going to go back to |
| 1413 | 04:28:46,950 --> 04:28:56,010 | equilibrium. The bodies in here are supporting that. As long as we don't get any close lower, there is no manual intervention. If it does, there's manual |
| 1414 | 04:28:56,010 --> 04:29:05,190 | intervention and you avoid it. This is to support the idea that it's going to go higher. So, what you want to see is you want to see the market wants to move to |
| 1415 | 04:29:05,190 --> 04:29:21,330 | the up, move up and then create more power three power three is open down close, rally, close on the high open, drop, rally close on the high do we see here? |
| 1416 | 04:29:21,840 --> 04:29:33,240 | Drop small rally up close, open drop down rally, come back still enough close. So much of a small little movement you can barely see it but up close. We open |
| 1417 | 04:29:33,270 --> 04:29:48,240 | we drop down rally up close what is order flow? What is the order flow at that time? Is it bullish or bearish bullish at this time right here, right here. |
| 1418 | 04:29:48,600 --> 04:29:58,530 | Okay, on this candle is closed on the very next candle on a 15 minute basis. You can use power three on that 115 minute candle right there. As it opens, it drops |
| 1419 | 04:29:58,530 --> 04:30:16,830 | down. You can do Buying anywhere in the upper 50% of this candle here. Expect this range here to stay open. Why? Why would this be expected to stay open? You |
| 1420 | 04:30:16,830 --> 04:30:29,760 | see this candle right here. This is the same thing occurring here. With more candles in between. This is all time distortion. I know this is too complicated |
| 1421 | 04:30:29,760 --> 04:30:38,070 | Fuck this, give me a moving average. I know I know some of you're getting frosty because numb, but you want to learn, and I'm willing to teach it to you. But you |
| 1422 | 04:30:38,070 --> 04:30:45,840 | don't need everything. But I'm teaching you how I do these things. How do I determine when I'm doing live executions, I say this is going to stay open, it's |
| 1423 | 04:30:45,870 --> 04:30:56,130 | optimal for this fair value get to stay open, you're asking me to teach you. So I'm teaching you the same element of delivery here. And here. That one single |
| 1424 | 04:30:56,130 --> 04:31:05,160 | candle right here. Imagine this one candle, if all these candles from this candle here to here, were compressed into one interval, it'd be the same thing |
| 1425 | 04:31:05,160 --> 04:31:18,480 | happening, right? They're just more candles. That's all happening. So my eyes go into this to this. So now let's use the same criteria, okay? Which is higher, |
| 1426 | 04:31:18,900 --> 04:31:41,970 | this low or this low? This low. So there's your, we don't want to anchor to that. Okay? Draw that down. I use a, it's not a mouse, it's a touchpad thing, |
| 1427 | 04:31:42,510 --> 04:31:59,040 | which is lower the high of this candle, or the high of this candle. Let me take this off, you can see this high, or this high, which is higher, this one, or |
| 1428 | 04:31:59,040 --> 04:32:11,370 | this one. This one. So this high in this. I'm sorry, this low and this high is the two reference points. But you want to expand it down, you want to full |
| 1429 | 04:32:11,370 --> 04:32:20,100 | encapsulation like we did over here for a balanced price range. So this is the lower fair value gap than this one. To what degree what measures the distinction |
| 1430 | 04:32:20,100 --> 04:32:33,870 | between this being lower than that one. It's this candle here. In other words, think of it like this. I know what I want to say I just can't find the words do. |
| 1431 | 04:32:35,100 --> 04:32:48,330 | They're escaping me. Or if we were looking at both for your baggage like this, which one is higher? This one, right. So to identify and map this out, we use |
| 1432 | 04:32:48,330 --> 04:33:07,020 | this one as the high and we drag it down to here. Okay, so all of this is a balanced price range. It should never, it should never come back down. And |
| 1433 | 04:33:07,020 --> 04:33:14,610 | through the midpoint of that meeting, there will be a small portion of this gap left open. So let's play devil's advocate for a moment say it went down into |
| 1434 | 04:33:14,610 --> 04:33:25,410 | this range, I would not be concerned about it doing a complete closure here. Because we have this fear Vega. And this rewrite you got that basically overlap |
| 1435 | 04:33:27,540 --> 04:33:40,950 | in this range right there. So we have this portion who you're in over here. So this creates what an island reversal, multiple candles that are segregated from |
| 1436 | 04:33:40,950 --> 04:33:54,960 | all the movement here in here. So how I internalize it is, all of this right here was manipulation, just like all of this is manipulation. So the purpose was |
| 1437 | 04:33:54,960 --> 04:34:07,020 | is to offset existing liquidity. For the purposes of anyone that would be profitable. Once we get above this high. It's all spending time down here to |
| 1438 | 04:34:07,020 --> 04:34:19,290 | allow offset Long's to be taken out. And who would assume that position if they're getting knocked out smart money in the market rallies. Admittedly |
| 1439 | 04:34:19,320 --> 04:34:31,170 | balanced price ranges are going to be requiring a lot of education, a lot of teaching, okay. And I promise you that you don't need it. But you asked me to |
| 1440 | 04:34:31,170 --> 04:34:41,490 | tell you how I know certain fair value gaps are gonna stay open. And I'm not I'm not hiding it from you. I'm telling you, these, this is it. This is what I'm |
| 1441 | 04:34:41,490 --> 04:34:49,740 | doing to do that. Okay. They're all principles and concepts that I'm using to implement to determine when fair value gaps are gonna stay up. And I know you |
| 1442 | 04:34:49,740 --> 04:34:58,170 | I'm talking to you right now over this chart. That's after the fact. But I don't know how many of the examples you've watched me trade or I'm doing live |
| 1443 | 04:34:58,170 --> 04:35:05,820 | examples. I'm entering and managing this stuff. organum taking partials and hitting targets. I don't know how many of those examples I've shown, we're sure |
| 1444 | 04:35:05,850 --> 04:35:15,510 | that you've seen, but they predominately have been shared on Twitter, because I usually put music behind them, because you know, I like to do that. But I still |
| 1445 | 04:35:15,510 --> 04:35:23,160 | show them on my YouTube channel too. But most of the time they're being shared on Twitter, because it allows you to see a very small two minutes, sometimes |
| 1446 | 04:35:23,160 --> 04:35:34,620 | less than two minute and 22nd compression of me executing. And every annotation I'm talking about and showing, if I'm talking to how a fair backup should be the |
| 1447 | 04:35:34,650 --> 04:35:44,220 | optimal for it to stay open and not close. I'm using that either as a breakaway gap. These are the two primary functions, okay? Either I'm treating it as a |
| 1448 | 04:35:44,220 --> 04:35:57,510 | breakaway gap. And it should not close, fully meaning like this gap here. Let me draw it in. Maybe I shouldn't charge admission, but this is too good for the |
| 1449 | 04:35:57,510 --> 04:36:02,640 | books. This gap here, it should stay open |
| 1450 | 04:36:04,080 --> 04:36:12,240 | to be optimal. That means it's the best case scenario to see this stay open. I would say that about this one regardless, because it will be treated as a |
| 1451 | 04:36:12,240 --> 04:36:22,530 | breakaway gap. Why? Because this over here is a balanced price range, and it's in equilibrium. And the body's supporting that idea is seen here. Then we see |
| 1452 | 04:36:22,530 --> 04:36:29,640 | price moving here. And then we have this big extrapolation but yet to take out this high. So this is the draw this is where price would want to reach out to |
| 1453 | 04:36:29,640 --> 04:36:40,470 | because there's real liquidity of other what kind of liquidity by psi, this gap is moving quickly away from all this consolidation around equilibrium based on |
| 1454 | 04:36:40,470 --> 04:36:49,290 | that bounce price range. And I know some of your heads are swirling right now like what the hell is he talking about? Example, after example, spend time with |
| 1455 | 04:36:49,290 --> 04:36:57,030 | me, every time there's a balanced price range, I will bring your attention to it. Okay, I do it in live executions, I talk about it in advance, I talk about |
| 1456 | 04:36:57,030 --> 04:37:07,140 | it. In tweets, I talk about it in reviews, okay, the more time you see it, the more exposure you will have to it. But for a breakaway gap in some of you |
| 1457 | 04:37:07,140 --> 04:37:17,820 | thought I'd never get to this topic. A breakaway gap is expected to form when, for instance, say we're bullish on the market. And you have identified a key |
| 1458 | 04:37:17,820 --> 04:37:29,580 | level that would support us or be presented as support. And that is acting as a discount array. Bounced price range at equilibrium. That's one of the PD arrays |
| 1459 | 04:37:29,610 --> 04:37:40,950 | that is not taught in the mentorship core content where I show you the PV array matrix. And I give you a spectrum of where they are. A balanced price range can |
| 1460 | 04:37:40,980 --> 04:37:50,250 | exist in any place in a discount or a premium. So there's no real definitive place where they work in an heirarchy. Whereas the RFP I show you in a PDF |
| 1461 | 04:37:50,280 --> 04:38:00,540 | matrix, the ones that are there, that is a static that is very finite, they nest in that order. But there are other PV arrays like this one I'm showing you here. |
| 1462 | 04:38:00,690 --> 04:38:12,750 | And like event horizon, those things can exist in any range of that spectrum, which we define as a discount or premium. Okay. So if you're brand new, that |
| 1463 | 04:38:12,750 --> 04:38:20,820 | just completely went over your head, but I promise you dig into the the content and it's there. Don't try to think you're going to learn how to do all this |
| 1464 | 04:38:20,820 --> 04:38:29,280 | stuff right away. And you don't need to know everything. You don't need to know a fair value gap that stays open. You don't need that to be profitable. But I'm |
| 1465 | 04:38:29,280 --> 04:38:37,140 | making it available to folks that want to know everything that I'm willing to share. So you ask them teaching you how to do it. So even if this didn't have |
| 1466 | 04:38:37,140 --> 04:38:46,890 | this gap over here, that creates a balanced price range between these two February gaps. The fact that it does this move here and creates the fear of a |
| 1467 | 04:38:46,890 --> 04:38:58,680 | gap. Notice there is no gap here, all through here until this candle forms. No Gap is there. Everything is efficiently delivered, every previous high is |
| 1468 | 04:38:58,680 --> 04:39:08,640 | touched, every previous high is touched. This one goes outside that range of it goes deeper, but then you have this bigger extrapolation for the upside. So this |
| 1469 | 04:39:08,640 --> 04:39:21,840 | gap here, even if this wasn't here as a fair value got this gap that shaded here. I'm being conscious of whether or not this livestream is keeping up with |
| 1470 | 04:39:21,870 --> 04:39:29,040 | because I noticed the one on the 13th when I was moving my cursor around what I was talking about wasn't showing them my cursor. So I'm hoping that's not the |
| 1471 | 04:39:29,040 --> 04:39:41,820 | case here but the one that's shaded is split that way, I would treat that regardless of the gap on the other side here, whether that's there or not. This |
| 1472 | 04:39:41,820 --> 04:39:52,260 | is classified to me as a breakaway gap. Meaning that a breakaway gap. I don't want to see it completely closing. It can come back down to half of it. But |
| 1473 | 04:39:52,260 --> 04:40:01,410 | because there's a balanced price range here, I wouldn't want to see even half of it traded to so then you would see me say I want to see this trade I'm sorry, |
| 1474 | 04:40:01,980 --> 04:40:11,550 | remain open, it will be optimal for this to remain open. But the very next candle here, the same thing you would expect it to do what you can see it open. |
| 1475 | 04:40:12,180 --> 04:40:19,380 | And then the previous candles high over here overlapping this one that would be otherwise a fair value gap. If this would make the low as low as it did here, |
| 1476 | 04:40:19,890 --> 04:40:30,840 | this low completely returns back the debt candles high. So any movement from here down into that you could be a long entry. Or if you're already long, you |
| 1477 | 04:40:30,840 --> 04:40:41,160 | can pyramid. So when you see me showing you a one minute chart, or a three minute chart, whatever timeframe I'm utilizing, I'm showing you, I'm not trying |
| 1478 | 04:40:41,160 --> 04:40:50,880 | to hide anything from you. But I've been very open and candid about that I'm looking at other timeframes. So this is a 15 Minute candlestick chart. If you |
| 1479 | 04:40:50,880 --> 04:41:00,510 | were watching all this movement from the open of this candle down to the low of it, and then we're watching it on a one minute chart, it would be not so clear |
| 1480 | 04:41:00,510 --> 04:41:08,790 | probably to what it is, it would be the factor for me to trust that that drop down where some of you might be freaking out thinking, you know, it's hitting |
| 1481 | 04:41:08,790 --> 04:41:19,920 | this area or this area. And in that resistance or whatever. I don't, I don't feel those problems or fear, because I'm trusting that the order flow is being |
| 1482 | 04:41:19,920 --> 04:41:31,020 | supported by every candlestick. That's real order flow. All the candles are supporting each other. There's no trendline required, there's no moving average |
| 1483 | 04:41:31,020 --> 04:41:40,950 | required. There's no v Whap required nothing. It's pure price, just pure price. And then we get one down close candle. Now what happens after the high is taken |
| 1484 | 04:41:40,950 --> 04:41:54,000 | out here? Where is it trade back down into relative equal highs, all of this overlapping in between this area here. That is creating a very strong bounce |
| 1485 | 04:41:54,000 --> 04:42:03,510 | price range in in itself, all of this movement in here. It's back and forth, back and forth. So it's showing that it's not willing to go below 15,000 to 16. |
| 1486 | 04:42:04,530 --> 04:42:16,710 | So more is more, is it more likely to explore by side that's existing? Where would it be above here and keep pressing higher. So it's a matter of reading a |
| 1487 | 04:42:16,710 --> 04:42:26,940 | lot of things that if you're if you're really not interested in becoming, you know, versed in what it is I teach, this is where we depart, where you're like, |
| 1488 | 04:42:26,940 --> 04:42:33,810 | Okay, it's just too much. I'm not interested, okay, it's just too much. It's contrived. It's, you conjecture, it's hindsight, it's that, but I'm telling you |
| 1489 | 04:42:33,810 --> 04:42:41,340 | everything that I'm doing, when I'm doing the executions, and the things I'm leaning on, when I give you the analysis, like I did on the 13th. You know, it's |
| 1490 | 04:42:41,340 --> 04:42:49,980 | based on all these things. At the time, when I'm looking at the chart, am I I'm watching a five second chart, a 15, second chart, you know, 32nd chart, a five |
| 1491 | 04:42:49,980 --> 04:43:01,560 | minute, five minute chart or an hourly chart, all these things I'm looking at. Notice that the same things that I'm looking at are continuous discount, or |
| 1492 | 04:43:01,560 --> 04:43:12,930 | premium, inefficiency, or liquidity. the only the only separation from those things for analysis purposes, is the relationship to the balance price range, or |
| 1493 | 04:43:13,440 --> 04:43:26,280 | the lack of a balanced price range. Did you pick that up? There's, there's no necessity for you to understand the balance price range, just know that you will |
| 1494 | 04:43:26,280 --> 04:43:39,840 | see things that will not present an opportunity for you. Because you don't understand it. Notice that you would not need this to take any trades. It just |
| 1495 | 04:43:39,840 --> 04:43:49,860 | gives you more clarity about how to read price action and know where you are in that price delivery continuum. Where are we at in relationship to where price |
| 1496 | 04:43:49,860 --> 04:44:01,800 | has been? And where is it heading? What reference points is it using for a new point of buying where you can then break that down into into smaller fractals, |
| 1497 | 04:44:01,950 --> 04:44:12,270 | which is what I've shown you here with each individual candle power three is essentially the the open, if you're bullish, it's an open down move that you |
| 1498 | 04:44:12,270 --> 04:44:20,010 | want to go long in. And that's the part that Larry Williams was saying. He didn't understand how to do that. And he made a facetious comment saying that, I |
| 1499 | 04:44:20,010 --> 04:44:29,760 | don't know maybe if you knew their their zip code, it will help which was silly, obviously. But it to me it was like a personal challenge like Well, shit, if he |
| 1500 | 04:44:29,760 --> 04:44:38,910 | can't do that, I'm gonna spend my time trying to figure that out. So that's, that's where I got the idea of you stripping down the market and looking for |
| 1501 | 04:44:38,940 --> 04:44:46,740 | discount the premium. The opening price when it's bullish, I want to be looking at the open or less the buy. Whereas at the time when I was learning from his |
| 1502 | 04:44:46,770 --> 04:44:59,550 | material, he was teaching and trading with real money buying on strength. So he would he would buy some measure of the previous day's range usually 20% of the |
| 1503 | 04:44:59,550 --> 04:45:08,790 | previous day. range added to tomorrow's opening. And if it moves like that, he would buy that and consider that binds drink. I tried that and got my ass handed |
| 1504 | 04:45:08,790 --> 04:45:18,660 | to me, I just, I could never make that work for myself. I'm not saying that it doesn't work, or that he didn't make money with it, because he clearly did. I |
| 1505 | 04:45:18,660 --> 04:45:24,360 | couldn't make that work. So I understand when I teach a specific concept, and it might be the balanced price range that you're probably looking to say, This is |
| 1506 | 04:45:24,360 --> 04:45:25,080 | too complicated. |
| 1507 | 04:45:25,770 --> 04:45:35,400 | Don't worry about it. Stick to the things that make sense. I did the same thing I love and adoration for Mr. Williams when I was learning all this stuff. I've |
| 1508 | 04:45:35,400 --> 04:45:45,090 | trusted him with everything. Okay. But I was literally throwing money in brokers accounts just to test a new thing I learned that day. So yeah, it was I |
| 1509 | 04:45:45,090 --> 04:45:53,610 | understand, but it's like the fanfare that comes around somebody that you have a lot of affinity for. But don't do that with my concepts, you know, and really |
| 1510 | 04:45:53,610 --> 04:46:00,660 | spend time with measuring what it is that makes sense to you that you've done the due diligence and back testing and seeing which one of these PDAs that makes |
| 1511 | 04:46:00,660 --> 04:46:09,840 | sense to you. And the obvious ones, the easiest ones that you see, that's the one you spend the most time with. And you're most of you are ready to determine |
| 1512 | 04:46:10,170 --> 04:46:18,180 | your model is linked to that, and bloom where you're planted. Don't try to tinker with it too much. All you're trying to do is find something that |
| 1513 | 04:46:18,180 --> 04:46:26,010 | separates from where the market is right now where it's likely to go and measure risk that you can afford to take as a loss. And then you repeat that over and |
| 1514 | 04:46:26,010 --> 04:46:34,080 | over again. And that's profitability. That's consistency, that's continuity, which brings longevity, you don't want to be a one hit wonder, get a five figure |
| 1515 | 04:46:34,080 --> 04:46:41,880 | withdrawal from a funded account safe Hell yeah. Ball, my ball. And that's not that's not success. That's what everybody's treating it. Like right now they |
| 1516 | 04:46:41,880 --> 04:46:50,460 | want to get funded, and get a lottery win. Okay, I'm not teaching you how to be a lottery trader, I'm teaching you how to be a long term, consistently |
| 1517 | 04:46:50,460 --> 04:46:58,500 | profitable trader. But that doesn't happen overnight, someone you think you can make it happen like that, it doesn't work like that. It doesn't, because you're |
| 1518 | 04:46:58,500 --> 04:47:04,680 | gonna bring in all kinds of things that you have to wrestle with. And you're gonna, you're gonna swear up and down, that it's something I'm gonna teach or |
| 1519 | 04:47:04,680 --> 04:47:12,810 | taught, or will teach is the replacement for what you think is the best thing for you. Every time I bring something new, you're going to question that thing |
| 1520 | 04:47:12,810 --> 04:47:23,220 | that may be showing you evidence that this is your model right now. Don't let me sway you with something new. It'll always be on the YouTube channel, whatever |
| 1521 | 04:47:23,220 --> 04:47:32,250 | I'm teaching is gonna stay up. But wherever you start seeing success, even in the early stages don't abandon that. You have to give yourself time. And you |
| 1522 | 04:47:32,250 --> 04:47:40,320 | have to stick with something long enough to know that you have a foundation and you're gonna see that all these PD arrays, lean and lean on one another. It's |
| 1523 | 04:47:40,320 --> 04:47:50,130 | like a web that all fits our whole entire structure. When I look at price I'm seeing all at one time. Some of the things I want to see I have to wait to see |
| 1524 | 04:47:50,130 --> 04:48:04,230 | if they're going to manifest and that's usually on the heel and or backside of a high impact or medium impact news driver. Alright, so let's go on to a five |
| 1525 | 04:48:04,230 --> 04:48:04,770 | minute chart |
| 1526 | 04:48:10,170 --> 04:48:21,540 | Excuse me. Alright, so we have all the balanced price range equilibrium. We have the breakaway gap, we traded a boat, we have a down close candle. So what is |
| 1527 | 04:48:21,540 --> 04:48:36,360 | this? What's this down? Close candle? But what's your waterblock? Does it have a fair value get? Right there? What time of day is that? 1005 What time is it? |
| 1528 | 04:48:37,230 --> 04:48:49,860 | That's your am session silver bullet to ICT silver bullet? You can trade this gap right here, which would be encapsulated here. What time do you start looking |
| 1529 | 04:48:49,860 --> 04:49:05,340 | for an ICT Silver Bullet trade? If you're trading in the one hour spectrum of 10am to 11am, you start with your 15 Minute down the 54321. If you don't see it |
| 1530 | 04:49:05,340 --> 04:49:16,020 | in one minute or higher, drop down into the seconds charts. If you're adamant about finding one, it will be there. It will absolutely be there. Let me let me |
| 1531 | 04:49:16,020 --> 04:49:28,260 | tell you why. Okay, here's the why behind a silver bullet. Okay. There is always folks just like a partial profit pays every fucking time it's 100% profit when |
| 1532 | 04:49:28,260 --> 04:49:39,210 | you take a partial profit, it never fails to pay you. That's why I teach you to do it. You're always winning taken a partial. It never ever, ever fails to put |
| 1533 | 04:49:39,210 --> 04:49:47,070 | more money in your account. Think about that. And there's dumbasses out there that will tell you taking partials is a stupid shit they've ever heard. Because |
| 1534 | 04:49:47,070 --> 04:49:53,670 | you incur the initial risk and you take less than you tried to make when you first put the tray on. You don't fucking know if that Mark is gonna go there. |
| 1535 | 04:49:53,670 --> 04:50:03,270 | Yeah, who and you as a new developing student, you have no idea is going to do that either. So when it gives you opportunity to take money out, you do it. And |
| 1536 | 04:50:03,300 --> 04:50:12,630 | over time doing that you learn more about yourself, you learn more to trust. Okay, I've seen this before, let me let me expand outside my comfort zone. This |
| 1537 | 04:50:12,630 --> 04:50:21,240 | is where I normally take the majority of my trade off. Let me just take a small portion and move my stop to break even. And graduate in my experience and seeing |
| 1538 | 04:50:21,240 --> 04:50:30,840 | what it feels like to go into these scary moments. But still taking profits. Nobody, no fucking Buck Rogers jumped out there and said, I know how to trade. |
| 1539 | 04:50:30,870 --> 04:50:39,060 | This is the model I'm going to do. And it's full bore full Paul, no partials, and I'm doing it all the time. That's an animal, okay? That's an animal that |
| 1540 | 04:50:39,060 --> 04:50:46,590 | tells you that it's an animal that's telling you to trade like that. You don't know, when these markets are going to have manual intervention, you have no idea |
| 1541 | 04:50:46,590 --> 04:50:57,570 | when it's going to turn on you. Nobody knows that. If I didn't, if I didn't have the respect of the risk that's available in these markets, I wouldn't use a stop |
| 1542 | 04:50:57,570 --> 04:51:06,510 | loss. And I'm the guy teaching you, I'm telling you, I get pissed off. When I see students sending me their screenshots of their trades that are open. The |
| 1543 | 04:51:06,510 --> 04:51:13,260 | first thing I'm looking for is where their stop loss is. And I usually bite my tongue because I don't want to embarrass them. But if you're sending me tweets, |
| 1544 | 04:51:13,260 --> 04:51:21,060 | and you're sending me your open profit trades, whether it be live or demo or funded account, if you don't have a stoploss on you just know that I'm cringing. |
| 1545 | 04:51:21,870 --> 04:51:31,470 | I'm cringing, because you're not using a stop loss. That means you're fucking gambling. You're you assume that you're absolutely right. There's no way you can |
| 1546 | 04:51:31,470 --> 04:51:43,590 | be wrong. And I don't even think that I authored all this shit. And I still have to use a stoploss. Because you don't know when chaos is going to show up. You |
| 1547 | 04:51:43,590 --> 04:51:59,100 | don't know when uncertainty enters the chat. Some unexpected event, some bomb dropped somewhere. Someone declares Why are you paying attention? So why do |
| 1548 | 04:51:59,100 --> 04:52:11,520 | silver bullets work? Why will they form because there's always going to be displacement between 10 o'clock and 11. Why? This is the part where you take |
| 1549 | 04:52:11,520 --> 04:52:24,960 | notes, okay. In the hour of 10 o'clock, and 11 o'clock in the morning, New York local time. What has happened already, the market opens at 930 there opening |
| 1550 | 04:52:24,960 --> 04:52:32,220 | bell. I mean, we've been trading all night long. But the opening bell happens. Ding ding, ding everybody's now paying attention. Everybody's clapping our |
| 1551 | 04:52:32,220 --> 04:52:40,770 | hands. I've never understood what the fuck that clapping for. But the bottom line is, is that markets open 930 bills ring. Now everybody's rushing out there |
| 1552 | 04:52:40,770 --> 04:52:54,060 | to buy and sell stocks. Great. retail trader John Q Public is watching the ticker tape. And he's saying okay, my stock opened up $2 More where it closed |
| 1553 | 04:52:54,060 --> 04:53:04,350 | yesterday, this is amazing. I'm making money, well, that gap is going to close likely, and it drops down. Then after that gap fills, if it fills at all, then |
| 1554 | 04:53:04,350 --> 04:53:13,110 | there's new sentiment that shifts, okay, it either overlaps that gap and breaks down, then it treats the low of the gap as resistance and keeps going lower or |
| 1555 | 04:53:13,710 --> 04:53:21,690 | it fills the gap rallies up treats the high of the gap of support and then continuously moves higher. There's your gap theory right there. Use that with |
| 1556 | 04:53:21,780 --> 04:53:33,420 | new week opening gap, New Day opening gap, any gap any fair value gap, any real liquidity void. That's how you treat it. Now, what separates the support behind |
| 1557 | 04:53:33,420 --> 04:53:46,950 | that gap is the consequent current the midpoint how we trade there at time of day. At 10 o'clock, we have 30 minutes behind us. Which is why I tell you that |
| 1558 | 04:53:46,950 --> 04:54:04,860 | 30 minute opening range. That's important. Every every algorithm uses that first 30 minutes. Every one of them. They use that to refine a very specific range to |
| 1559 | 04:54:04,860 --> 04:54:14,970 | look for inefficiencies and allow sometimes liquidity the form below or above it, and they'll do another pass, go back below, take stuff out and then run |
| 1560 | 04:54:14,970 --> 04:54:29,160 | through or don't return back into it at all. But just half of it. And then it runs higher or lower in deference to whatever the bias will be for that day. But |
| 1561 | 04:54:29,160 --> 04:54:38,460 | the main takeaway is at 10 o'clock, you have 30 minutes of trading after the opening bell so that initial flurry of rush to do something John Q Public is |
| 1562 | 04:54:38,460 --> 04:54:48,000 | doing their trading then, and they're usually apt to be wrong. So we allow for that to take place. We don't have any bias ahead of time. We didn't look it we |
| 1563 | 04:54:48,000 --> 04:55:01,530 | don't care. And we wait and see where price delivers from 930 to 10 o'clock. Now at 10 o'clock, we refer to where we think price price is going to go anyway. |
| 1564 | 04:55:02,130 --> 04:55:17,580 | Well, you've been calling price for NASDAQ. I'm going to use the continuous contract is to get a higher timeframe perspective. Okay. Beisa liquidity here |
| 1565 | 04:55:22,560 --> 04:55:35,610 | there, and we have a order block there. Why this one, Michael, this one stretches down, it's relatively equal lows also, I'm using that as a reference |
| 1566 | 04:55:35,610 --> 04:55:45,240 | point, you wouldn't be wrong by saying this one. Okay, and is using it because it's lower. So it's a lower hanging fruit objective, doesn't mean it's gonna go |
| 1567 | 04:55:45,240 --> 04:55:58,080 | there. It just means that that's how I would look at it like that. Excuse me. So if we have this bias or the quality here as a potential drop in liquidity, and |
| 1568 | 04:55:58,080 --> 04:56:15,270 | it dropped down into that what timeframe we were on? Was a 15 minute chart. Yes, we think we have this as a Buy, Sell liquidity and go back into what we're |
| 1569 | 04:56:15,270 --> 04:56:30,570 | looking for higher prices nonetheless. lower dollar risk on Euro dollar higher, POUND DOLLAR higher. And equities are permitted to trade higher. Our focus was |
| 1570 | 04:56:30,600 --> 04:56:45,990 | on es that's the one I've been teaching through. There was an N filled or read traded to weekly imbalance volume imbalance on the E Mini s&p. NASDAQ has been |
| 1571 | 04:56:45,990 --> 04:56:56,820 | the upside performer. So even though NASDAQ has already moved up, you could take trades in ES. But if you're trying to take a trade, like if you want to use |
| 1572 | 04:56:56,820 --> 04:57:04,440 | relative strength analysis and you want to do long's the one you want to be trading is the one that's showing the outperformance on the upside, which has |
| 1573 | 04:57:04,440 --> 04:57:15,960 | been clearly the leader in tech. So NASDAQ is an upside leader. Yes, we will follow in suit by sympathy. Okay, so sympathetic price rally, it's moving in |
| 1574 | 04:57:15,960 --> 04:57:25,680 | concert with what has been shown in NASDAQ. And it has to catch up to what es I'm sorry, what NASDAQ has done. For the purposes of making it clear, I'm gonna |
| 1575 | 04:57:25,830 --> 04:57:38,280 | use the June contract because you'll remember these inefficiencies. Okay, so here's the NASDAQ. Remember, I told you there's the inefficiency, we've already |
| 1576 | 04:57:38,280 --> 04:57:51,780 | worked inside that one. If we look at it from the perspective of the EES, we only went to this high and we have yet to trade up into this inefficiency. So in |
| 1577 | 04:57:51,780 --> 04:58:01,410 | my opinion, you we have much more room to go up on the upside. Now if you take that insight, and you add it to the new front month, based on the volume, we |
| 1578 | 04:58:01,410 --> 04:58:11,190 | have this here. Okay, so that's the, this is the month that we're trading in for ES. And then we add it to and q |
| 1579 | 04:58:11,190 --> 04:58:25,920 | again. We can't pull that up because of the the data is not being there. So I'm referring back to the previous month that will be expiring. Knowing that we're |
| 1580 | 04:58:25,920 --> 04:58:36,480 | likely to continue, but I fall away from the analysis from NASDAQ and rely more so on es because es should move sympathetically higher, to try to catch up. |
| 1581 | 04:58:37,170 --> 04:58:49,830 | That's the theory of six sisters, six sisters, we have the leadership in NASDAQ, but in es es will try to move in concert with. So we may see in the future, a |
| 1582 | 04:58:50,190 --> 04:59:03,810 | consolidation or lack of leadership on NASDAQ. And then more upside offered on a bigger day move on like ES. It might not happen, but that's how I treat the six |
| 1583 | 04:59:03,810 --> 04:59:13,110 | Sr. So as long as the leadership issue goes higher, which is NASDAQ. That should pull up like in for instance, all boats rise in high tide. That's the that's the |
| 1584 | 04:59:13,110 --> 04:59:27,180 | moniker I'm using here. This everything goes up when the tide goes up. So but if you contrast that with what the the Dow is doing, is things lethargic. It just |
| 1585 | 04:59:27,180 --> 04:59:44,760 | doesn't want to join the party at all. But we were able to see it due to our run to her here on NASDAQ. I told you I was waiting for CPI on the June 13 |
| 1586 | 04:59:45,210 --> 04:59:54,780 | livestream. I was aware that the CPI number could potentially cause a big dive lower for the purpose of the sell side but it would just be the purpose of |
| 1587 | 04:59:55,200 --> 05:00:01,290 | taking out stocks and in the reason that was the whole premise. When I talked about NASDAQ you can go and watch a live stream that They're in the commentary. |
| 1588 | 05:00:02,250 --> 05:00:11,850 | And it was similar idea with ES it was like, wait and see, the only thing I was definitive on on stock indices at the time of that live stream, in the 18 minute |
| 1589 | 05:00:11,850 --> 05:00:22,680 | and 49 second time period, I called up this chart here. And I said that 39 628 would be the draw on liquidity, which is in the first high. And that's where we |
| 1590 | 05:00:22,680 --> 05:00:35,760 | saw it draw into, and it stopped, pretty much reacted, that retraced lower. In our piercing it again, I don't trade the Dow, I use it as a barometer, like I |
| 1591 | 05:00:35,760 --> 05:00:46,170 | use the dollar index. So I'm looking at the relationships between the three averages. So it this is typically understood as Dow Theory, which I think in |
| 1592 | 05:00:46,860 --> 05:00:54,810 | obviously, using stock indices, it works. It's a proven method, and it's comparing the averages, they should confirm one another. And I'll show you what |
| 1593 | 05:00:54,810 --> 05:01:07,140 | I mean by that is por tu es chart. And we'll pull it up on a. So this is what I'm thinking we're going to reach out to so that way we know if i in case I lose |
| 1594 | 05:01:07,140 --> 05:01:16,440 | track of what I'm saying. I think ES is going to pull up into 4500 or just below it. So there you go, you have an expectation or what I think we're reaching for, |
| 1595 | 05:01:16,920 --> 05:01:24,240 | and if someone's reached out and told me that Larry Williams is calling for, you know, a retracement or moving lower. I don't see that until we get up to here |
| 1596 | 05:01:24,240 --> 05:01:35,790 | for at least three Yes. And I'm happy to be wrong to you know, against his analysis, but I'm sharing what what I think. All right, here's a 60 minute chart |
| 1597 | 05:01:36,150 --> 05:01:47,310 | as to what a 15 minute chart I failed to mention earlier, a 15 minute chart is a bellwether chart. Like it's to me, like if I was forced to do anything less than |
| 1598 | 05:01:48,900 --> 05:02:01,770 | a daily chart, and I couldn't do anything below a daily chart than just use one timeframe, it would be the 15 minute chart. Like it gives you the best of the |
| 1599 | 05:02:01,770 --> 05:02:10,530 | best in terms of short term entries and targets because everything you can find on the daily you'll see it on this if you compress enough you'll you'll have |
| 1600 | 05:02:10,530 --> 05:02:18,630 | better refinement of those little levels too. You can get short term trades you can day trade you can scalp you can enter into long term position trades, it's |
| 1601 | 05:02:18,660 --> 05:02:29,640 | the it's the timeframe that does all I'm not limited are satisfied with that because that's why like I go into lower lower timeframes even sub one minute |
| 1602 | 05:02:29,640 --> 05:02:39,060 | like in the seconds charts. I don't advise the new people that do that because you can read into 15 and five and 10 and 32nd charts, they can you see something |
| 1603 | 05:02:39,060 --> 05:02:48,420 | there that on an hourly chart is like rocket fuel and boom, these things can move like 40 handles on something on a higher timeframe basis on a news driver |
| 1604 | 05:02:48,690 --> 05:03:00,120 | and you're thinking you're seeing a fair value gap on 32nd 15 Second your chart and get roasted. Alright, so anyway, yes here on a 15 minute basis. You click on |
| 1605 | 05:03:00,120 --> 05:03:08,010 | this little thing up here for compare and you're going to type in for find it in here but I'm going to show you how to do because assuming you don't have it on |
| 1606 | 05:03:08,010 --> 05:03:11,820 | your chart yet and cue you to zero to three |
| 1607 | 05:03:17,129 --> 05:03:26,099 | if you do it like that, it's going to plot it right at the top of your chart. I don't like that okay, what I do is I go over here and I set it to and I know |
| 1608 | 05:03:26,099 --> 05:03:33,809 | some of you are gonna say well if you do this I know I know candlesticks |
| 1609 | 05:03:41,879 --> 05:03:46,799 | you can do it on a line basis but I'm gonna show you the candlestick version okay |
| 1610 | 05:04:01,530 --> 05:04:02,310 | I did it wrong |
| 1611 | 05:04:08,010 --> 05:04:19,350 | I have it set up as a template. I've been spoiling myself with it. You can create little templates over here. And we'll set this on new pain, new pain puts |
| 1612 | 05:04:19,350 --> 05:04:24,870 | it down below the price and you want to do it with a Dow also don't see the down here |
| 1613 | 05:04:48,180 --> 05:04:57,750 | if you're gonna use it as a line chart, since we're looking at lows, okay, as a back test, you study it and get your screenshots of it. If we're bullish and |
| 1614 | 05:04:57,750 --> 05:05:12,150 | you're expecting to see a rotation higher and some divergence, which would be SMT divergence. You're plotting on the low. So you're comparing the relationship |
| 1615 | 05:05:12,180 --> 05:05:21,660 | of the low of yes or whatever when you're using, those will be my trading instrument. And then for NASDAQ, I'm plotting this line chart on the basis of |
| 1616 | 05:05:21,720 --> 05:05:40,770 | the close. I'm sorry, I'm the low rather. And same thing with the Dow, you're going to do it and then squeeze it up a little bit. You want to compare the low |
| 1617 | 05:05:40,830 --> 05:05:48,270 | do we see a lower low here on the NASDAQ, we do. And it looks like we see a lower low on the Dow. So there's no s&p Divergence there. |
| 1618 | 05:05:57,479 --> 05:06:13,019 | Same thing, lower low, respectively, level respectively. So if we see a time when there's a lower low in your trading instrument, whether, say you're trading |
| 1619 | 05:06:13,019 --> 05:06:23,549 | ES or your trading NASDAQ, when you compare the other averages against it, if you're long or wanting to go long, you want to plot this. And if it gives you a |
| 1620 | 05:06:23,609 --> 05:06:35,279 | divergence acts as a qualifier, I can you can take and you will take trades without s&p. But when SMT forms or a divergence against the averages, or if |
| 1621 | 05:06:35,279 --> 05:06:46,049 | you're using it against the dollar against the euro, or the pound versus the euro, which is a correlated pair s&p Divergence when you're looking at two |
| 1622 | 05:06:46,049 --> 05:06:59,219 | closely correlated, which is essentially what we're doing here, it's this is a correlated pair SMT. But with index futures, if they were considered pairs of |
| 1623 | 05:06:59,249 --> 05:07:11,339 | correlated pair, s&p Divergence would be Euro dollar, making a lower low, while POUND DOLLAR makes a higher low, when dollar is bearish. That would mean dollar |
| 1624 | 05:07:11,339 --> 05:07:21,209 | goes lower, and the one that makes the failed lower low, that's the low relative strength leader, that was the one you would be going wrong in, in either euro or |
| 1625 | 05:07:21,239 --> 05:07:32,249 | pound, whichever one makes the, the failed lower low. So there's a lot of measuring that goes on when I'm watching price actions. If you heard me many |
| 1626 | 05:07:32,249 --> 05:07:40,979 | times mentioned, I have a lot of monitors, okay, you don't need a lot of monitors, but you need to be able to have at least two charts open. That can be |
| 1627 | 05:07:40,979 --> 05:07:51,989 | done on a laptop like I was showing you here earlier. Or it could be a secondary monitor on your system. It's very, very difficult to trade on your cell phone. |
| 1628 | 05:07:52,589 --> 05:08:06,209 | Okay, it's not impossible. I mean, I've done it. But you are literally looking through a very small window of what is going on. And it's very easy to get |
| 1629 | 05:08:07,439 --> 05:08:15,509 | fixated on whatever you're seeing in that small little four inch universe or whatever big your your instrument is, or tablet or phone is, you're missing out |
| 1630 | 05:08:15,509 --> 05:08:25,259 | on a lot of information. And the way I trade is I look at all these other things I'm showing you here today. Each monitor has its own real estate, what it's |
| 1631 | 05:08:25,259 --> 05:08:35,789 | responsible for, what markets, the follow, what timeframes I have on here, all those things I'm monitoring, I'm constantly getting a new, refreshed view of |
| 1632 | 05:08:35,819 --> 05:08:47,369 | everything from the higher timeframe down across a lot of markets that are closely correlated. So I'm using inter market relationships and intra market |
| 1633 | 05:08:47,369 --> 05:08:56,579 | relationships. So that way, there's a relationship between how markets are either positively correlated or inversely correlated. They should agree on the |
| 1634 | 05:08:56,579 --> 05:09:08,969 | most part, I'm allowing for this discrepancy or cracking correlation, where it's expected to form I do not look at charts. Okay, this is very important. I never |
| 1635 | 05:09:08,999 --> 05:09:20,729 | look at charts for the purposes of finding an s&p divergence. Look at the lows here. We have a higher low here, we have a higher low here, but we have the |
| 1636 | 05:09:20,729 --> 05:09:32,819 | lower low on down. See that? That's a divergence s&p Divergence I used to when I was younger when I was first dabbling into this I would only look for it to form |
| 1637 | 05:09:32,819 --> 05:09:43,169 | and trade based on that. And I had nice hand it to me. It's only when you know where the markets likely to draw to. It creates a real measure of accumulation |
| 1638 | 05:09:43,169 --> 05:09:53,009 | and distribution. Larry Williams has a accumulation distribution formula which when I first learned about it, I fell in love with it. And for commodities in |
| 1639 | 05:09:53,279 --> 05:10:04,469 | you know higher timeframe price moves for our daily. I found that it was really good but events You know, it's just didn't work as well as I wanted it to, and |
| 1640 | 05:10:04,619 --> 05:10:12,809 | didn't form enough. But I was using it as a means of getting into some of my trades when I would look for something to go along. The qualifying thing was the |
| 1641 | 05:10:12,809 --> 05:10:21,719 | 50 day moving average we bullish unordered sloping up. And then I would look for an oversold condition on an hourly chart with a stochastic and the waves for |
| 1642 | 05:10:21,719 --> 05:10:31,649 | some are being oversold, then the very next day, I would look at the opening. And as long as it dropped from the opening price down, I would chase that going |
| 1643 | 05:10:31,649 --> 05:10:39,719 | into lungs. So I would begin there buying volume, I wouldn't never want to go short, I was afraid to short, I didn't know I didn't understand how to short. So |
| 1644 | 05:10:39,719 --> 05:10:51,869 | everything I did was primarily going long. So my model would be supercharged, if I saw a accumulation distribution, bullish divergence. So I don't want you to |
| 1645 | 05:10:51,869 --> 05:11:00,539 | thinking that it's a magic bullet, okay, where all you have to do is look for a divergence. And that's your entry. Because divergence is, as you saw earlier, |
| 1646 | 05:11:00,599 --> 05:11:09,839 | when I was showing you the Euro dollar events against the dollar index, there was a s&p Divergence at the time, that would have been a qualifying thing for me |
| 1647 | 05:11:09,839 --> 05:11:18,899 | to say, I'm done, and I wouldn't hold for the trade anymore. But you watch the dollar rotate, go lower, and the Euro dollar make it even higher high. So I |
| 1648 | 05:11:18,899 --> 05:11:26,699 | would have missed wherever that movements. And if it's even going higher. I don't know, I haven't seen it since we talked about. But just for the purposes |
| 1649 | 05:11:26,699 --> 05:11:36,089 | of SMT alone, that divergence does not mean anything coupled with profit taking when it meets the time of day where you should be trying to close up shop or at |
| 1650 | 05:11:36,089 --> 05:11:45,179 | least try to get the majority of your trade in, in real profit and not open profit where you actually take partials and you're booking that profit. That to |
| 1651 | 05:11:45,179 --> 05:11:55,439 | me is more meaningful in the sense of using it for if it does form an entry with s&p Divergence at the time of day, and it fits the criteria and your drawing |
| 1652 | 05:11:55,439 --> 05:12:06,449 | liquidity hasn't been reached or target has been reached for yet, then then It's more meaningful to use it. But being in of itself, it's useless. Okay, it has to |
| 1653 | 05:12:06,449 --> 05:12:13,709 | be used at the proper context. And I see new folks that have just recently gone through some of my stuff, they're like, you know, I don't hear you or see you |
| 1654 | 05:12:13,709 --> 05:12:23,819 | talking to SMT. It's not required. You know, it's really not, it's just one of those things that if it's there, wonderful, you know, I don't look at co T, |
| 1655 | 05:12:24,029 --> 05:12:33,479 | every single day I take a trade, you don't need it. It's just a qualifying thing that just adds more support to it. If you're a long term position trader, and |
| 1656 | 05:12:33,509 --> 05:12:44,069 | you want to trade that way, Commitment of Traders, and seasonal tendencies coupled together with what I'm showing you here, that is a that's a winning |
| 1657 | 05:12:44,069 --> 05:12:53,969 | recipe, like that is a really good model. And just use the entry models that I've taught, like the 2020 model, or even the silver bullet trades. And you |
| 1658 | 05:12:53,969 --> 05:13:04,439 | thought I wasn't going to answer the thing you started to talk about why silver bullets form and how, how the deform, why is it there, they're always going to |
| 1659 | 05:13:04,439 --> 05:13:18,479 | be there. Because of the first 30 minutes of price delivery, you have 30 minutes now in the marketplace, the rush the mad dash to get in and do something to buy |
| 1660 | 05:13:18,479 --> 05:13:28,889 | and sell. That's already in the marketplace. Now. The initial the initial surge of institutional orders being thrown out there for their clients or their own. |
| 1661 | 05:13:30,449 --> 05:13:39,389 | That's in the market now too. So now we have 30 minutes behind us. The initial impulsiveness that usually comes into the marketplace is now behind us. And now |
| 1662 | 05:13:39,599 --> 05:13:57,389 | we're in the first full hour of trading after the bell. The first 30 minutes is done. That's like the Asian range. Okay. Now we have a real move London. Think |
| 1663 | 05:13:57,389 --> 05:14:04,979 | about it in the 24 hour cycle, kind of probably confusing some of you but the long term students know what I'm talking about. I'm looking at that, that range |
| 1664 | 05:14:05,009 --> 05:14:15,299 | of the intraday movement on the morning session as the same impulsiveness that comes into London where there's a lot of volume that comes in in forex, that |
| 1665 | 05:14:15,299 --> 05:14:29,069 | same thing occurs in that first four hour of 10 to 11. They all want to make a mad dash to find profitability. And a lot of the algorithms wait for that first |
| 1666 | 05:14:29,099 --> 05:14:39,929 | impulsiveness to run higher or lower in the inefficiency that you find on the timeframes and the models I'm showing you. They all dog pile on the all dog pile |
| 1667 | 05:14:40,019 --> 05:14:50,339 | on that one there. So it's not a measure of the selling or buying pressure that's pushing it. It's the algorithm itself is offering it to him. It's going |
| 1668 | 05:14:50,339 --> 05:15:00,659 | to move from that fear vague to wherever it's going to go regardless of how many people buy or sell into that gap. It's it doesn't make a difference. Everything |
| 1669 | 05:15:00,659 --> 05:15:08,699 | in price is scripted. It's completely manipulated, it's absolutely controlled. And the only thing you're trying to do is look for that small, little |
| 1670 | 05:15:08,699 --> 05:15:19,979 | inefficiency. When you know where you're aiming for, you're aiming for some higher timeframe target, like we outlined for Euro dollar and the dollar index. |
| 1671 | 05:15:21,989 --> 05:15:32,609 | If you have a higher timeframe bias, and we know that there's a directional bias that's looking for a reason to go higher, it would make sense for us to expect |
| 1672 | 05:15:32,939 --> 05:15:46,979 | some kind of run higher from 930 Going into 10 o'clock. And looking backwards, in seeing in that price run higher, was there any inefficiency or failure, if |
| 1673 | 05:15:46,979 --> 05:15:54,929 | there is, then we can use that as an entry that has to happen? At 10 o'clock, till 11 o'clock, |
| 1674 | 05:15:55,440 --> 05:16:05,580 | the fair value got doesn't have to form in itself inside of that one hour period, it can refer back to some fairway get that formed in the run up, if it's |
| 1675 | 05:16:05,580 --> 05:16:14,910 | bullish between 930 and 10 o'clock. And if you're bearish, you're expecting it to move lower, the fair value got could form in the move from 930, opening down |
| 1676 | 05:16:14,910 --> 05:16:23,250 | to 10 o'clock slow. So that price leg, wherever the fair value got would reside there, it can return up into that many times, you're gonna see a lot of the |
| 1677 | 05:16:23,250 --> 05:16:31,110 | trades that I've taken in the past, if you go, I was one of the things I want to ask you as a community. I know some of you out here, save everything I do. And I |
| 1678 | 05:16:31,110 --> 05:16:41,040 | love you for that. Has anybody got a full collection of every single execution I've ever made public? Because I don't know where they're at once I've put them |
| 1679 | 05:16:41,040 --> 05:16:51,150 | out on Twitter, like I don't know how to find them. There's a lot of and I just don't know where they're all at. If somebody could like create a, maybe |
| 1680 | 05:16:56,370 --> 05:17:05,310 | a thread and throw them on that. They'll be awesome. I'll retweet it if you do it. But the I would like to see them all. And you can see a lot of things I'm |
| 1681 | 05:17:05,310 --> 05:17:12,600 | teaching you will make much more sense to you now that I'm teaching you like this, you'll go back and say, Oh, shit, there it is, I can see that he just |
| 1682 | 05:17:12,600 --> 05:17:20,010 | talked about that area as he's doing it. But in the early stages, I wasn't trying to teach a lot of that because, you know, I even told my private |
| 1683 | 05:17:20,010 --> 05:17:28,680 | mentorship groups, I said, Look, you know, I'm going to demonstrate it. But I'm not going to go into the detail about what it all is until some jackasses want |
| 1684 | 05:17:28,770 --> 05:17:35,850 | to go out there and start selling my videos. So now I killed that whole shell and put the core content videos up on my YouTube channel. That's not, that's |
| 1685 | 05:17:35,850 --> 05:17:50,910 | another reason why it's not coming down when I leave in November. So anyway, we talked about gold, till and when to gold and I'll teach you the FMC setups. And |
| 1686 | 05:17:50,940 --> 05:17:58,920 | we're done for today. Let's go into gold, just go to a daily chart. And |
| 1687 | 05:18:06,209 --> 05:18:16,679 | I always use forex.com, I don't have an account with them. That's the feed I go with. And I trust that one. I don't look at Orlando or pepperstone, or use any |
| 1688 | 05:18:16,679 --> 05:18:27,869 | of those other ones. It helps provide a consistent medium for everyone. Because especially if we're using Forex, if you look at different brokers, they're going |
| 1689 | 05:18:27,869 --> 05:18:39,119 | to have a different opinion about what the high and low was right. Alright, so anyway, gold. It first, when I opened it up, I said, you know, I wouldn't touch |
| 1690 | 05:18:39,119 --> 05:18:49,319 | it. I wouldn't I don't know. But like I always do. I say gun to my head. I said, I think we're gonna go below the sell side here, these relatively equal lows. So |
| 1691 | 05:18:49,349 --> 05:19:01,559 | again, you can find that at the 20 minute and five second marker of the June 13 2023 video with analysis. Okay, so let's go into this. And we'll segue into |
| 1692 | 05:19:01,559 --> 05:19:08,309 | the floor coming up the Forex but the FOMC had traded. And it's the same premise that I'm going to teach you that it's the same application whether you're |
| 1693 | 05:19:08,309 --> 05:19:20,519 | trading nonfarm payroll or FOMC. They're treated the same way. FOMC generally is a much more larger magnitude of a move. But there's, they're using the same |
| 1694 | 05:19:20,549 --> 05:19:31,859 | macro, they use the same thing. It always happens the same way. It's just a much more muted event when it's Non Farm Payroll. So anyway, I took your attention |
| 1695 | 05:19:31,859 --> 05:19:39,689 | into these relative equal lows. I said, Okay, I think it's going to go there. So that's what I thought was going to be the draw. That's where I thought we would |
| 1696 | 05:19:39,689 --> 05:19:46,499 | reach for, and I didn't say anything beyond that. Okay, I didn't say anything lower. I didn't say anything higher. I said, you know, this is where we're gonna |
| 1697 | 05:19:46,499 --> 05:19:59,189 | reach for. So that was said to you on the 13th of June. So let's go on to a 15 minute chart. I'll get through this pretty quick. Then we'll take a 10 minute |
| 1698 | 05:19:59,189 --> 05:20:05,429 | break and then we'll come back I can teach you how to trade FOMC and Non Farm Payroll. And then we'll bid each other farewell. |
| 1699 | 05:20:11,399 --> 05:20:26,879 | Okay. Alright, so this line is that level from the daily chart, which has the relative equal lows, it's the 1938 point 20 level. Okay, and we will be looking |
| 1700 | 05:20:26,879 --> 05:20:38,789 | for a drop down, you're going lower, and I should have dropped into a 60 minute chart when I drop into a 15. Okay, so there's there's relatively equal lows from |
| 1701 | 05:20:38,789 --> 05:20:51,119 | the daily but now seen on an hourly chart. And you can see on the 13th, we created another low here. So resting below here was a large pool of what kind of |
| 1702 | 05:20:51,119 --> 05:21:03,239 | stops sell stops? Why would they be sell stocks down here? Because look at the movement, from here up, traders are gonna chase that it goes down. They see it |
| 1703 | 05:21:03,239 --> 05:21:12,899 | doesn't go here, and it rips one more time. So what are they? What are they trying to sell the idea of? When I say they, it's the real market makers, the |
| 1704 | 05:21:12,899 --> 05:21:21,119 | folks that are controlling price. And yes, gold is one of the highest manipulated instruments there is. It's literally a joke. And that's why I don't |
| 1705 | 05:21:21,119 --> 05:21:30,599 | like trading it. I know a lot of you'd like to ask about all the time, but this one is extremely manipulated. It's like the Japanese yen like I can't stand it. |
| 1706 | 05:21:30,839 --> 05:21:40,739 | Okay, it's so absolutely ridiculous how controlled it is. And I choose not to touch it. And just like the Swiss franc to Good grief, he's leaving everything. |
| 1707 | 05:21:42,419 --> 05:21:50,939 | The weather this low, and this low, their cell stops below this low sell stuff. So they were selling the idea that this is a trading range. And by thinking |
| 1708 | 05:21:50,939 --> 05:21:58,199 | about, there's so many people out on YouTube, they're still making videos like this today. I have a range here, every time I get to the low end of the range, |
| 1709 | 05:21:58,199 --> 05:22:10,529 | you got to buy it, and you can make money every time in sudden. I did that kind of stuff. At 20 years old, I did all that. The indicators and oscillators will |
| 1710 | 05:22:10,529 --> 05:22:18,359 | tell you every single one these lows at the perfect oversold condition. And that's what tricks you. So when I stopped looking at the market like that and |
| 1711 | 05:22:18,359 --> 05:22:25,859 | looked at it from liquidity or inefficiency, then I didn't rely on an overbought, oversold. I could see overbought, oversold relative to the range |
| 1712 | 05:22:25,859 --> 05:22:37,469 | that we're trading in, which is really what Matthew medically has been done and tortured indicators. If you're defining a look back period, generally 14 period |
| 1713 | 05:22:37,499 --> 05:22:47,279 | 10 period nine period, and then you're basing that range as high as high and low as low and where you're at in relationship to that. So you need an oscillator to |
| 1714 | 05:22:47,279 --> 05:22:57,989 | tell you that like this right here. We're above 50% of this high to that low. Below these lows is sellside liquidity gun to my head, I told you, that's where |
| 1715 | 05:22:57,989 --> 05:23:08,789 | I think we're going to trade to. So is it higher after the 13th When I told you that no, it only went up to go to a short term premium. This short term premium |
| 1716 | 05:23:08,789 --> 05:23:11,579 | is relative to this high, down to that low. |
| 1717 | 05:23:19,590 --> 05:23:29,610 | At equilibrium, or higher as a premium. We're definitely in a premium. Okay, so we don't need to see an oscillator tell you it's overbought or oversold. It's |
| 1718 | 05:23:29,760 --> 05:23:40,080 | defined by that. If you pulled up 1,000,000% or 10 period, or a stochastic, it's gonna show you a robot right there. I don't need to see that I already know |
| 1719 | 05:23:40,080 --> 05:23:50,130 | what's there. Once you understand how to read price and read what range you're in, presently, it's easy to identify what is overbought, oversold, and you don't |
| 1720 | 05:23:50,130 --> 05:23:59,040 | need any indicator to tell you that. You don't need to see a Moving Average crossover or a MACD to tell you where market flow or market momentum is |
| 1721 | 05:23:59,040 --> 05:24:11,430 | pointing. Look at what it's doing. It's building a narrative that this is supposed to be trusted as support. Nets building in engineering, sell side |
| 1722 | 05:24:11,430 --> 05:24:22,320 | liquidity. So when that occurs, I'm sure some of you lost it rally up here and thought, you know, on the 14th ICTs got it wrong. And the only thing it did is |
| 1723 | 05:24:22,350 --> 05:24:34,830 | trade up into a premium and then wipe out. They ran right for those cell stops. What was the reaction after it did that? Look where we're at now. Now, I'm not |
| 1724 | 05:24:34,830 --> 05:24:42,360 | suggesting that there isn't opportunity in this market or there wasn't an opportunity because there really was. I don't want to trade in these market |
| 1725 | 05:24:42,360 --> 05:24:50,250 | environments. There was a time as a young man in my 20s I wanted to capture these moves from here to here and here to here and here to hear. I want to be in |
| 1726 | 05:24:50,250 --> 05:25:00,210 | everything. And I discerned that. While it's possible. I didn't have the aptitude to be able to do that yet. And I lost money and blue accounts trying Do |
| 1727 | 05:25:00,210 --> 05:25:08,880 | that, trying to learn how to do it with real money. It does not work. You have to know what you're doing and be bored with things. You're doing that process |
| 1728 | 05:25:09,150 --> 05:25:15,930 | over and over and over again before you even think about putting real money in. So anyway, let's take a closer look with it and 15 minutes, I know we have that |
| 1729 | 05:25:15,990 --> 05:25:39,780 | context. At two o'clock yesterday, there was an event that took place. And we're that was at FOMC, right. So at two o'clock whenever there's an FOMC event, it's |
| 1730 | 05:25:39,780 --> 05:25:52,680 | to be treated in two stages. Okay? This is going to be a general rule of thumb, it will serve you more times than not, you will lose money on it eventually, if |
| 1731 | 05:25:52,680 --> 05:26:01,950 | you push it every single time, I promise you that. But if you go back and study OLED moves, you'll be quickly convinced that what I'm about to tell you, my long |
| 1732 | 05:26:01,950 --> 05:26:11,730 | term students know this. And we expect it all the time. I had two folks. Tweet to me yesterday, who I adore, I can't I can't deal with people. If you're going |
| 1733 | 05:26:11,730 --> 05:26:20,640 | to come in and you show me this type of perspective or mindset, you are not ready to learn from me. So I just blocked them. It's not because I don't want to |
| 1734 | 05:26:20,640 --> 05:26:29,310 | take heat from people because I my best trolls, my biggest trolls are not blocked by me. So it's not a thin skinned type thing. I don't have time or |
| 1735 | 05:26:29,310 --> 05:26:39,660 | energy to deal with people that are close minded. And if you're brand new, and you come to me on Twitter, and I share an example of me executing. I hate seeing |
| 1736 | 05:26:39,690 --> 05:26:49,260 | Oh, after the fact again, or someone supporting the idea, immediately you're showing me that you are not there to learn. Or you're not in the proper mindset. |
| 1737 | 05:26:49,260 --> 05:26:59,610 | So I broom you quick to get rid of you. If you think you know everything, or if you think I owe you an execution to put you into a trade that you can copy me. |
| 1738 | 05:27:00,240 --> 05:27:09,030 | You don't know who I am. I'm not promising you that. And that's one of the biggest things a pet peeve I don't want anybody being able to copy me. I got |
| 1739 | 05:27:09,030 --> 05:27:15,240 | people constantly asking me what's the color your candles, I know why? Because they want to take the videos like this one that doesn't have a watermark on it. |
| 1740 | 05:27:15,810 --> 05:27:26,670 | And anytime I do an execution, unless I have my watermark in it, they invariably find their way on to Tik Tok, they're on Instagram, they're on Facebook, they're |
| 1741 | 05:27:26,670 --> 05:27:37,410 | on YouTube under somebody else's thing saying they took the trade. So I don't like that. Okay, I know, I know my own trades. I don't need to, like they can. |
| 1742 | 05:27:37,710 --> 05:27:46,020 | You can block out everything I know who will who's trading that I'm looking at it. I know it's me. And everybody else can recognize when I'm trading because it |
| 1743 | 05:27:46,020 --> 05:27:55,080 | is what it is. But I don't want people copying me. So if you're new and like this is the first time you listen to me, I call things before it happens. And |
| 1744 | 05:27:55,080 --> 05:28:01,830 | people will tell you, it's easy to do that anybody can do that. But the same people are all day long, saying Oh, we got to watch to see if it's gonna go up |
| 1745 | 05:28:01,830 --> 05:28:09,210 | here. It could go down here, you gotta be careful on it, it's getting tight in here. And all of a sudden, after the fact they'll say I do not call this stuff. |
| 1746 | 05:28:09,240 --> 05:28:17,190 | No, I say gun to my head, this is what the fuck is gonna happen. And there it is. Even if I'm not certain, I will tell you what side I'm on. And I'm |
| 1747 | 05:28:17,190 --> 05:28:23,310 | comfortable being wrong in those instances. But when I don't say come to my head, and I say, this is where I think it's gonna happen. That's your fucking |
| 1748 | 05:28:23,310 --> 05:28:32,430 | ass is going there. Okay, that's what's happening. So I'm not in this business to try to have an opportunity for all of you to copycat me, I am in this |
| 1749 | 05:28:32,430 --> 05:28:41,940 | business to tell you how to do this. I don't need to be doing this. But I want you to succeed. But you will not succeed by copying me or trying to get money |
| 1750 | 05:28:41,940 --> 05:28:48,810 | right now. Because you're short on change. And that'll inspire you to do if you don't want to learn how to do this, by what I've already shown or taught or see |
| 1751 | 05:28:49,140 --> 05:29:00,330 | my students doing, nothing's gonna convince you. So that's why I distinguish the greatest student that comes to me, the people that just simply want to listen, |
| 1752 | 05:29:00,330 --> 05:29:07,950 | learn and practice and put the time into it. They're not going to complain, and they're not going to ask for more than I'm already given. And that's the people |
| 1753 | 05:29:07,950 --> 05:29:16,140 | I'm teaching. That's the people that keeps me coming back here. I broom entitlement, I get rid of that bullshit. I don't want I don't have any tolerance |
| 1754 | 05:29:16,140 --> 05:29:22,740 | for it. And you can have the opinion of me whatever you want. I don't care. But I'm the only motherfucker out here that's telling you where it's gonna go |
| 1755 | 05:29:22,740 --> 05:29:36,330 | precisely, every single week, and I'm asking nothing for it. Nothing. I'm the I'm here all day to day. So just know that you're not obligated to be here. And |
| 1756 | 05:29:36,330 --> 05:29:45,990 | I assure us fucking outdated teach you any of this. I love doing it. But if if you come to me on social media, and you talk that nonsense to me with an |
| 1757 | 05:29:45,990 --> 05:29:53,550 | entitlement mindset, or, Oh, it's after the fact. And you didn't go through the process of hearing me explain how all these things happen. I've already taught |
| 1758 | 05:29:53,550 --> 05:30:03,390 | how this works. And really why I'm saying this, because I'm about to teach you how to trade FOMC and it's the same thing with Non Farm Payroll, the same macro |
| 1759 | 05:30:03,390 --> 05:30:14,670 | that's being utilized, okay? It's a two stage macro, that means it's a first run, and then reversal. Okay? It doesn't happen every single 100% of time, but |
| 1760 | 05:30:14,700 --> 05:30:25,050 | most of the time unless they intervene, that's what the macro will do. It will go to levels as you watch me call out on the CPI. I told you where the fair |
| 1761 | 05:30:25,050 --> 05:30:36,540 | value gap was, I told you where the two pools of liquidity, the very specific elements that led to that delivery at CPI, it happened. You can't trade it is |
| 1762 | 05:30:36,540 --> 05:30:44,910 | happening too fast and the broker will not let you get filled. Anybody that shows you them getting filled, that is a bullshit white label, fake empty for |
| 1763 | 05:30:44,910 --> 05:30:52,230 | horseshit, it's fake, it's fake, it's fake. I don't give a fuck who you are. It's fake. You are not getting filled on those things. It's not happening, |
| 1764 | 05:30:52,740 --> 05:31:07,890 | period. But if you wait until these reports come out, and that first initial surge, and they put the the availability of the trade back in place, all brokers |
| 1765 | 05:31:07,890 --> 05:31:16,770 | pool or shit, they don't they don't want to be getting caught on the wrong side of some goober tech got lucky. That's the reason why happens, folks. It's not |
| 1766 | 05:31:16,770 --> 05:31:23,520 | because nobody wants to trade it or they're scared. They the broker doesn't want to have that incurred risk. That's the reality. That's it. That's what's going |
| 1767 | 05:31:23,520 --> 05:31:30,660 | on. Okay, but they call it something else. Because think about when you look at it that perspective, it's like you assholes, you know, I could be making money |
| 1768 | 05:31:30,660 --> 05:31:35,820 | right here and you're preventing, yeah, that's exactly what they're doing. They're saving their own ass. They're protecting themselves. And guess what, I'd |
| 1769 | 05:31:35,820 --> 05:31:48,330 | be doing the same thing. Because you can get lucky. I got lucky. I got lucky for months, early on, I did and then found out I didn't know shit. So would it make |
| 1770 | 05:31:48,330 --> 05:32:02,250 | sense for someone that has millions of dollars available in customer deposits, and they are over leveraging that 30 to one. And they get right on an over |
| 1771 | 05:32:02,250 --> 05:32:12,090 | leveraged position on a big fast runner 100 handles and into you know, 50 handles in ES Come on, man, like you wouldn't take that risk on either. So you |
| 1772 | 05:32:12,090 --> 05:32:21,540 | can't fault them. But it's just the reality of this business, it is what it is. But you don't need that first initial search, it's better for you to wait. And |
| 1773 | 05:32:21,540 --> 05:32:30,420 | they paint all these scenarios with the first initial run. Oh, it's gonna keep going lower, or it's always gonna keep going higher. So think about it like |
| 1774 | 05:32:30,420 --> 05:32:44,730 | this. At two o'clock, we see gold. Do this run here, rips lower. Remember, this is the low I told you it was gonna go to did it go to it at two o'clock is a 50 |
| 1775 | 05:32:44,730 --> 05:32:55,410 | Minute candlestick by the way, it drops down, but falls short of the objective and then leaves this low in this low as relatively close. And then it rips up |
| 1776 | 05:32:55,410 --> 05:33:11,070 | higher. What's happening here? what's occurring, it's setting the stage for traders that suspect that this is support, we can go long it's going to rally. |
| 1777 | 05:33:13,950 --> 05:33:26,070 | That's not what we want to see. Go into the expectation I teach you where the fair value gap or the imbalance it drops leaves this inefficiency right here. |
| 1778 | 05:33:28,560 --> 05:33:38,730 | When it drops, it comes back up into there to offer an opportunity to go short. And then it delivers where I said on the 13th which is that relative equal lows |
| 1779 | 05:33:38,730 --> 05:33:51,390 | on the daily chart. It digs into here, lower, lower one more good time and then rips higher today. All of this price action here I am telling you I would not be |
| 1780 | 05:33:51,390 --> 05:34:01,680 | in any of that. Not in at all. If I was looking at Gold real time I would have told you that it's possibly going to go here but I wouldn't touch it. And that's |
| 1781 | 05:34:01,680 --> 05:34:11,010 | the honest God truth. Ask any of my longtime students, I say this all the time about gold. And what it is this fascination with trading gold, but there are |
| 1782 | 05:34:11,010 --> 05:34:26,100 | better markets to trade and this bullshit. But that two stage or a second stage of delivery after 230 See the first move is like a red herring. Hey, pay |
| 1783 | 05:34:26,100 --> 05:34:37,440 | attention over here. Look at all this. Okay? And then at 230 That's the real move. That's the real one. Okay, so it can can come in two forms. It can go |
| 1784 | 05:34:38,460 --> 05:34:48,600 | rally up, suck everybody anything that's gonna go lower, and then wipe some completely out goes lower a lot. Or it can drop lower. Get everybody thinking at |
| 1785 | 05:34:48,600 --> 05:34:57,570 | two o'clock that it's going lower and then at 230 It rips in takes out the high that was formed prior to drop. Okay, that's the buyer sell in that way. The |
| 1786 | 05:34:57,570 --> 05:35:07,740 | other thing is where it drops down a lot. It leaves a fair value gap in it to 30. It'll go back to the fair value gap, then the real run comps, most times, |
| 1787 | 05:35:08,100 --> 05:35:20,940 | most times it does not do this. Usually it creates a run one direction in that direction is a complete Judas swing. Where it runs creates a high, it doesn't |
| 1788 | 05:35:20,940 --> 05:35:27,660 | come back to that high and just makes a lower low on the day Yes. |
| 1789 | 05:35:41,129 --> 05:35:53,789 | Two o'clock. I know, people send me messages saying that the title was wrong. I know it'll be changed the mislabeled my notes Friday and everything since then. |
| 1790 | 05:35:54,269 --> 05:36:12,059 | I mentioned that earlier in the recording of the two o'clock is the initial leg of FOMC. We dropped rally higher, fair value gap drops down, rips up higher. And |
| 1791 | 05:36:12,059 --> 05:36:25,979 | then one more time drops lower. If you look at the first move going in two o'clock. What is the first move? It's dropping down. So it's setting what what's |
| 1792 | 05:36:25,979 --> 05:36:43,289 | the expectation? What's retail going to think it's going to keep doing? Lower. This fear a gap is utilized twice. Two times. Trades into here, rallies, they |
| 1793 | 05:36:43,289 --> 05:36:59,129 | dig into it again today, one more time. And then they send it higher. On en que this will be much more impactful because I actually executed on it. Is it |
| 1794 | 05:37:02,489 --> 05:37:19,379 | alright, so we have a chart? Where should yeah. So this is the end Q and I want to take everything off this stripped down to nothing. All right. So here we have |
| 1795 | 05:37:19,409 --> 05:37:24,689 | into NASDAQ delivery contract month is September 2023. |
| 1796 | 05:37:33,240 --> 05:37:45,780 | Inside this drop, okay. Think about what I've talked about here. Think about what I've been talking about for weeks in relationship to ES E Mini s&p and the |
| 1797 | 05:37:45,780 --> 05:38:02,310 | Nasdaq futures contract. Which of those two is been the leadership on the upside? Which one has the strongest price delivery for being bullish? And cue as |
| 1798 | 05:38:02,310 --> 05:38:15,480 | that. So if we consider trading and FOMC, doesn't it make more sense if we want to go long? Why we want to go long? What was the move that took place on the |
| 1799 | 05:38:15,480 --> 05:38:27,810 | drop down into two o'clock, it's dropping at two o'clock. So here's your fake move to this drop down here, and then they hold it here, holding it Holding, |
| 1800 | 05:38:27,810 --> 05:38:43,260 | holding holding it. And at 230. The macro begins. So when you're trading FOMC if you're not writing this down, you're completely wasting your time. You have to |
| 1801 | 05:38:43,260 --> 05:38:49,650 | know which of the indices that you're going to trade because of relative strength, which one's stronger, there's always going to be a leadership issue, |
| 1802 | 05:38:49,680 --> 05:39:09,150 | whether it be NASDAQ, or ES Dow. Okay. If it's Dow, I just go to ES. If it's NASDAQ, I will trade NASA for ES. If it's anything leading to the weaker or the |
| 1803 | 05:39:09,150 --> 05:39:24,690 | stronger for the Dow, I always elect to use the ES as a deferment. I defer myself to trading only es not the Dow. So if it's a matter of picking which NSC, |
| 1804 | 05:39:24,690 --> 05:39:33,030 | I'm trading, it's either decision of whether trading the NASDAQ and it has to be the leadership on the upside. That means it's been going up longer, harder |
| 1805 | 05:39:33,090 --> 05:39:46,980 | faster than es if ES is going up longer, harder faster than NASDAQ. If it was reversed in this role, I would have taken this trade in ES and not NASDAQ. So |
| 1806 | 05:39:47,190 --> 05:39:52,590 | the first delivery at two o'clock I was seeing price do what drop down and go into a five minute chart. |
| 1807 | 05:40:07,589 --> 05:40:22,349 | When this market dropped here, what was the where was the most energetic price leg beginning from? Here are this big move here. I'm not saying that you can't |
| 1808 | 05:40:22,349 --> 05:40:33,929 | see this one as a higher, this is a higher, this is a high. But this is the most energetic. So all this starts the run going into FOMC. So anyone that's in this |
| 1809 | 05:40:33,929 --> 05:40:46,469 | move, where's their stop loss? Read about that short term high, I'm aware. But remember, I'm listening to this guy, tell me how to run my poll. And I'm not |
| 1810 | 05:40:46,469 --> 05:40:54,059 | really paying attention to him. And I'm trying to get an example on FOMC. And I'm doing it with my phone, which is what you see on my Twitter feed. Okay, |
| 1811 | 05:40:54,749 --> 05:41:07,049 | tools playing in the background. It's what it is. Okay, so I think it's gonna go up here. But I can't pretend to be listening to this guy. And watch all this |
| 1812 | 05:41:07,289 --> 05:41:14,669 | much all this stuff happen as it's going on. So I picked a very easy target, low hanging fruit objective, which is going to be the buy stocks resting above this |
| 1813 | 05:41:14,669 --> 05:41:19,949 | short term high. What Why was I going long in here? What was I looking at? |
| 1814 | 05:41:29,010 --> 05:41:41,100 | This move here. I'm sorry, this grief, this down close candle here. All of this movement in here back and forth. I'm treating that as like a very small little |
| 1815 | 05:41:41,100 --> 05:41:50,940 | bounce price range. It's doing back and forth, back and forth. So I'm trusting that there shouldn't be any more meaningful run. Below that if we take out that |
| 1816 | 05:41:50,940 --> 05:42:02,460 | candle tie. We have a here. So we take it out high. That low now becomes that's it? There's no more need for any more risk going lower. The stage is set because |
| 1817 | 05:42:02,460 --> 05:42:15,960 | no time is it to 25. The first stage of that delivery in the strongest of all the indices, which is the NASDAQ. I'm not looking at or caring about es, I'm not |
| 1818 | 05:42:15,960 --> 05:42:26,910 | looking at caring about the Dow. I'm not looking at relationships between the SMT. I don't care about that. It's time the macro will run on time. It's going |
| 1819 | 05:42:26,910 --> 05:42:38,430 | to favor this market because it's been outperforming on the upside. So it's it's sponsorship is heavily on this one going up versus the ES like it's been doing |
| 1820 | 05:42:38,430 --> 05:42:49,230 | for weeks. And the Dow has already proven its lethargic. It's not interested in performing like the ES and or not even close the NASDAQ. So all focus would be |
| 1821 | 05:42:49,230 --> 05:43:02,190 | on NASDAQ. So buying going long ray here, what am I keying off of? Look at the arrow where I entered in what I've already told you |
| 1822 | 05:43:09,719 --> 05:43:23,159 | this body of this candle the last enclosed candle I'm using as Bella by the way, this movement down into here. I'm buying that right there, right there. Bought |
| 1823 | 05:43:23,159 --> 05:43:32,729 | that, then I'm using this right here, this opening price and inside this little area here I want to use that as a means of wanting to go long on a pyramid. So I |
| 1824 | 05:43:32,729 --> 05:43:47,219 | went long with five contracts, which is not a lot and I added another one which is pillorying. What am I aiming for here? Just before we get to this high, |
| 1825 | 05:43:47,579 --> 05:43:56,909 | because during FOMC you could do this while whipsaw still and then deliver up. I want to get in or I'm sorry, I'm gonna get out of my trade. As it approaches |
| 1826 | 05:43:56,909 --> 05:44:10,409 | this high, low hanging fruit. I don't need it to go to the high or higher to get a fill. There's my exit on this candle here. All this rundown is completely |
| 1827 | 05:44:10,409 --> 05:44:29,879 | wiped out. Ultimate ultimately taking up that hot here. Over here two stages, Non Farm Payroll is the same way. It either gives you a drop, come back to a |
| 1828 | 05:44:29,879 --> 05:44:42,179 | fair pay gap and continue or it gives you a drop and completely reverse and rip higher. Everything reversed. The difference in knowing which one it is is how it |
| 1829 | 05:44:42,179 --> 05:44:54,119 | trades at the time, which is why I have to wait. I have to see what it's doing. How it delivers and compare it to the other averages. That's what I'm looking |
| 1830 | 05:44:54,119 --> 05:45:03,779 | for. I'm looking for that relationship between the other is not SMT I'm looking at how has been leading the pack higher or lower whenever these reports come in. |
| 1831 | 05:45:04,739 --> 05:45:16,919 | And then I'm looking for where the liquidity is. Traders that were trying to chase this their track down here, they're hoping it's gonna go lower. Back up, |
| 1832 | 05:45:16,919 --> 05:45:29,999 | it goes, go back and look at your calendar. And every time there was a FOMC rate announcement and Non Farm Payroll, study how that liquidity is taken, study that |
| 1833 | 05:45:30,389 --> 05:45:40,769 | it's always a two stage macro, it always does something initially, that gets people thinking it's going to do something specific. And then it rips their face |
| 1834 | 05:45:40,769 --> 05:46:00,179 | off. CPI is that macro on steroids. On crack on meth, it's literally like cocaine up the same macro. And you can't trade that. You can't, okay, you can't. |
| 1835 | 05:46:00,629 --> 05:46:12,959 | So all of these high impact news drivers and or medium impact news drivers, if you're afraid of those, just wait 30 minutes, minimum may wait 30 minutes after |
| 1836 | 05:46:12,959 --> 05:46:25,109 | they form and then see what liquidity resides in the marketplace, though, in any inefficiency. And if it offers you a range that presents potential to see 10 |
| 1837 | 05:46:25,109 --> 05:46:38,849 | handles, then you probably have a good chance of making five out of it. Or maybe even more. So it's there's a lot of waiting around to see what happens on these |
| 1838 | 05:46:38,849 --> 05:46:48,209 | big impact news drivers. Because you don't know. And I don't know before it happens, how they're going to use that information to manipulate it. Because |
| 1839 | 05:46:48,209 --> 05:46:58,679 | they want people chasing this idea at the moment. And they know that brokers are pulling liquidity, not that there is an absence of trading or interest, it just |
| 1840 | 05:46:58,679 --> 05:47:07,979 | means that all the brokers are collectively saying To hell with this, we are not getting caught on the wrong side. Because if they get a client or a large base |
| 1841 | 05:47:07,979 --> 05:47:18,539 | of their clients that are over leveraging, and everybody predominately over leverages, you know you do it to what happens if they're right on a big move |
| 1842 | 05:47:18,539 --> 05:47:31,019 | day, the brokers are out there not trying to do that. So wait, wait for that initial shock in trust the fact that you don't need that first move to make |
| 1843 | 05:47:31,019 --> 05:47:46,049 | money, you don't need it. Wait for the first move and two o'clock in FOMC and in to 25 to 30, then it's going to rip the other direction. That's that's what it |
| 1844 | 05:47:46,049 --> 05:47:55,139 | is. That's exactly what happens. It's kind of like, well, I don't want to say it in the Livestream, because I think my channel might get flagged, but I've said |
| 1845 | 05:47:55,139 --> 05:48:02,909 | the analogy before on Twitter and stuff, and I'll talk about it this weekend in a shock on Saturday. I'm sure you're all wondering what it is, it's not a big |
| 1846 | 05:48:02,909 --> 05:48:11,519 | deal. It's it's a analogy I use, that has something to do with making individuals run to a specific area and then attacking that once they get there |
| 1847 | 05:48:11,549 --> 05:48:23,939 | for a larger, impactful event. That's That's what I mean by to stage. So it's designed to corral traders into one big area, make them think it's going to do a |
| 1848 | 05:48:23,939 --> 05:48:32,969 | specific thing. So that way there is a pool of liquidity that's being sacrificed. And then that liquidity is being used for a Counterparty. So it's |
| 1849 | 05:48:32,969 --> 05:48:43,829 | tricking traders to go in the wrong direction and then raking them across the coals the other direction. So I think that is going to be it for today. We went |
| 1850 | 05:48:43,829 --> 05:48:57,239 | through my entire hit list of everything and I was a little bit short on my time. Two o'clock, it's pretty good. You got some got some value today. I talked |
| 1851 | 05:48:57,239 --> 05:49:10,049 | about a lot of things that hopefully will amplify some of the MIS understandings or or short comings in terms of your learning. And I amplified on things that I |
| 1852 | 05:49:10,049 --> 05:49:22,499 | know I get a lot of requests for breakaway gaps and introduced more insight about a balanced price range. And she preached that we focus on understanding |
| 1853 | 05:49:22,499 --> 05:49:33,059 | what's one is the leadership and when does it matter? Why does it really matter to be in the the one that's leadership is you see ICT trading the ES even though |
| 1854 | 05:49:33,059 --> 05:49:42,329 | I told you NASDAQ weeks ago was a strong one. So why aren't you trading that one? Because I'm teaching you how you can still find profitability if you did it |
| 1855 | 05:49:42,329 --> 05:49:54,899 | wrong. If you found something as a setup, and you didn't confer with the relationships between the averages, okay, or if you're a forex pair trader, you |
| 1856 | 05:49:54,899 --> 05:50:03,599 | didn't do the relationships between which is stronger, the British pound versus the US Dollar or, or the Euro versus the US dollar. You want to be in the |
| 1857 | 05:50:03,599 --> 05:50:11,549 | stronger one, if you're going long you want to be in the weaker one if you're going short. Well, when it matters most is when we have these high impact news |
| 1858 | 05:50:11,549 --> 05:50:24,149 | drivers, because they're going to really capitalize in wind these markets out when they are the leadership issue. Look at the relationship between the NASDAQ |
| 1859 | 05:50:24,149 --> 05:50:44,189 | here and ES. Whoops. There you see it right away, don't you? It was not able to climb as high. Look, look at here, here to here. Okay. Take you back to |
| 1860 | 05:50:44,189 --> 05:51:00,719 | domestic. See that higher? That's why ICT was buying this one and not ies. And you funded account. Traders, have you found their way into I guess the part |
| 1861 | 05:51:00,719 --> 05:51:09,119 | where they can make money and then take the money that people pay in and call themselves paid out? Whatever that is a trade right here that they could do. |
| 1862 | 05:51:09,779 --> 05:51:22,019 | It's not the maximum number of contracts available that they can trade, it's less than in that run right there is equivalent to 23,000 hours. So you tell me, |
| 1863 | 05:51:22,889 --> 05:51:34,979 | is it worth the gamble of trying to guess before the fact or waiting for the initial impact crater deform. And then you go over there and find the people |
| 1864 | 05:51:34,979 --> 05:51:44,009 | that you can pick the pockets out that, you know, they're dead already, you don't know. You go there and you take their money from their accounts, and get |
| 1865 | 05:51:44,009 --> 05:51:53,429 | out and walk away. I'll leave you with the idea of that being a good analysis you're not but I'm usually the action guy that sees things from Rambo |
| 1866 | 05:51:53,429 --> 05:52:01,709 | perspective, it's just the way I look at things. But if you want to look at it, as ballerinas dancing around, you know, whatever you whatever, whatever suits |
| 1867 | 05:52:01,709 --> 05:52:12,329 | you, that helps you understand what the markets doing. It's wonderful. But my audience predominantly is male. So, and I'm a guy, so I kind of like linked to |
| 1868 | 05:52:12,329 --> 05:52:29,519 | that. But one more time, you can see the difference between the two are much, much weaker on ES. Okay. So it's two o'clock. And my stomach is growling. So the |
| 1869 | 05:52:29,519 --> 05:52:40,649 | only thing I had today was bone broth. So I'm somewhat hungry. I'm trying to think if there's anything else I want to add before we close it, and I don't |
| 1870 | 05:52:40,649 --> 05:52:47,009 | believe I do have anything else in addition to what we've done here. Real quick, I just want to show you the Dow. |
| 1871 | 05:52:51,270 --> 05:53:02,130 | Okay, so we have a drop the fear a gap trades into here, and they reclaim it there today. And then they sent it higher. So as a little bit of a delay to take |
| 1872 | 05:53:02,130 --> 05:53:12,660 | out the relatively equal highs. We mentioned this high on the 13th of June. And that's where it hit it and just retraced lower, and now we're climbing above it |
| 1873 | 05:53:12,660 --> 05:53:20,730 | here. I'm not really excited about the Dow still, if even I was willing to trade it, I still wouldn't be interested in trading where it's at. You might be |
| 1874 | 05:53:20,730 --> 05:53:33,390 | thinking, well, wouldn't six sister apply that because it has a lot of ground to gain to try to catch up with NASDAQ or even Yes, maybe I just don't trade now. |
| 1875 | 05:53:33,840 --> 05:53:44,280 | It's a real spotty index, and it's only 30 stocks that make it up. So it's very easily manipulated. Okay. And I want to say it in the same way, like I mentioned |
| 1876 | 05:53:44,280 --> 05:53:53,460 | with gold because nowhere near a degree of manipulation and Dow that is in gold. But Dow is very thin, okay, meaning there isn't a lot of trading that takes |
| 1877 | 05:53:53,460 --> 05:54:04,170 | place in it versus the ES and the NASDAQ. And NASDAQ is a fast market because it's thinner too. So that's really what makes the the ES a little bit slower. |
| 1878 | 05:54:04,290 --> 05:54:14,760 | But sometimes there's a little bit of a inversion where es outperformed the NASDAQ. But most of the time the NASDAQ acts like the British pound versus the |
| 1879 | 05:54:14,760 --> 05:54:26,760 | euro ES will be equivalent to like a euro and NASDAQ is equivalent to how British Pound trades British Pound always exaggerates the move that would be |
| 1880 | 05:54:26,760 --> 05:54:35,520 | seen in Euro which is why always predominant like the trade cable which is POUND DOLLAR but there are times when Euro dollar outperform cable and you have to |
| 1881 | 05:54:35,520 --> 05:54:45,300 | know the things I'm teaching here. The relationships measuring when to look at it when not to consider it. You can't learn it in just one video. You have to |
| 1882 | 05:54:45,300 --> 05:54:55,350 | see experience it see analysis see things called in advance Watch out performs also back test. All those things should be included when you're looking at price |
| 1883 | 05:54:55,350 --> 05:55:06,060 | moves like when you're looking at Forex price right Once and you're you're logging in for your journal, you want to be looking at other closely correlated |
| 1884 | 05:55:06,060 --> 05:55:14,700 | pairs, not just the one that you see the setup in. So that way you're getting a real clear depiction of what everything else around that pair was dealing at the |
| 1885 | 05:55:14,700 --> 05:55:23,850 | same time. So that way, it's not this in and of itself, an island of itself, saying, I'm doing whatever I want to do. Now, it's being subordinate to the |
| 1886 | 05:55:23,850 --> 05:55:34,140 | macro that's under underway in all the markets. So anyway, I think I've given you enough today to give myself a day off in a three day weekend. And I |
| 1887 | 05:55:34,140 --> 05:55:43,680 | understand yes, it's not Friday, so I'll be changing the title of this. And I will catch up with you, I'm sure. Somewhere on Twitter, I don't know. But if I |
| 1888 | 05:55:43,680 --> 05:55:54,900 | don't talk to you tomorrow, on Twitter, I will talk to you Saturday morning at nine o'clock for a Saturday shotgun with ICT. I'll talk to you next time. Be |
| 1889 | 05:55:54,900 --> 05:55:55,290 | safe. |