ICT YT - 2023-06-13 - CPI and Price Action Lecture - Tuesday June 13 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-06-14 09:31
Outline
01:08 - Introduction to today’s topic.
- Retail traders are going to get smoked by cpi numbers.
- What's on tap this morning.
- Dollar index, starting with the weekly chart.
- Dollar gap inottawa.
04:16 - How to use the Cpi number to your advantage.
- Don't stand ahead or get in front of the cpi number.
- Treat this as resistance.
- Re pricing inefficiency between two candles on the daily chart.
- The euro/dollar chart.
09:53 - What I’m looking for when trading Cpi.
- Looking for evidence of bias for the rest of the week.
- Market driver cpi is dangerous.
- Don't look at anything as a little nudge.
- The two things to look for.
- Returning back up into the gap.
- What to look for after cpi.
16:53 - Stick to the Dow.
- Cpi number, rate announcement, fomc and cpi number.
- Nasdaq is the leader in the market.
- Focus on the delivery of emini s and p and the dow.
- Nasdaq.
21:48 - How to take advantage of a bear market?
- Taking a look at the daily chart.
- Moment chart of the market.
- Not being nimble enough to trade when liquidity is pulled.
- The 50/50 now.
26:26 - The takeaway from this report.
- Movement happened in the blink of an eye.
- Takeaway, forget being wrong or profitability.
- Identifying and using market drivers like non-farm payroll.
- Sell-side liquidity in the market.
- How the market reacted to the release of the report.
- The one-minute chart.
33:35 - It’s not a trade.
- High frequency trading is not a trade.
- What a high frequency trading algorithm does.
- The importance of understanding volatility.
- How to find one little thing to engage the marketplace.
39:30 - Why I’m never satisfied with my exits.
- Never fully satisfied with his exits.
- Being easily distracted in trading.
- The importance of knowing where the market is going to go.
- One thing, just one thing.
- Understanding where the market is going to reach for.
- How long to hold a trade.
46:12 - What would a high frequency trading algorithm look like?
- High frequency trading algorithm entry on a bimodal trading algorithm.
- Second chart.
- Shift in market structure. Order block.
- How to qualify a high probability order block.
52:05 - Narrative logic framework.
- First side of liquidity taken at cpi.
- Second pool of liquidity is engaged.
- The 30 algorithm, short-term shift and micro-structure.
- The market rallies up into inefficiency and trades down.
58:46 - What’s happening outside the chart?
- What the algorithm is doing in the market.
- How the algorithm works in trading.
- The first point of reference for the algorithm.
- The dance between inefficiencies and liquidity.
01:01:40 - What’s going on in the market?
- Not moving on any of that bullshit.
- The one minute chart mean threshold rally.
- Short-term highs and high-frequency trading algorithms.
- How to exit short term highs.
01:05:21 - How to prepare for a run before Cpi.
- How to do it right before cpi.
- The 15 second chart of the market.
- The removal of liquidity is a barrier to being profitable.
- The first run on liquidity.
01:10:12 - Pools of liquidity range.
- The range between the two pools of liquidity.
- The one-minute chart.
- How to use a time-based chart.
- The three drives of the market.
01:15:33 - Going to where the liquidity is.
- Struggling to find liquidity in the market.
- Mentorship from Ken roberts and Stan
- The first paid mentor, ken roberts.
- What level of contentment is required.
- Making big money is intoxicating, but not easy.
- Teaching by example with experience and repetition.
01:22:52 - Make money for your family and yourself.
- Trading is superficial. It doesn't mean anything.
- The one minute chart.
- Next important level above here is inside of inefficiency.
- Fib settings and price action.
01:28:55 - How do you know when a retail pattern is forming?
- Showing a chart in a chart like this.
- Retail pattern, retail pattern.
- Two minutes before the bodies, the wicks went down.
- Three minutes before.
01:33:23 - How far can you go in a run?
- How far the price can go in this chart.
- Negative one standard deviation.
- Trading the daily range, not the session.
- Look for one good set-up per week.
01:38:11 - How do you place your stop loss?
- Knowing where the market is likely to go.
- The daily range trading strategy.
- Day trading vs intraday scalping and session trading.
- How to place a stop-loss.
01:43:42 - The first run on liquidity is the tip.
- The first run on liquidity is the tip.
- Daily bias starts with understanding weekly charts.
- The market will take out the low of the day.
- The fair value gap.
- Encouragement of the old weekly chart 4420.
- Trading with real money, real money.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:01:08,700 --> 00:01:23,190 | ICT: Good morning, folks. It is a good morning. It won't be in about 19 minutes or so retail traders are going to get smoked the CPI numbers do out this |
| 2 | 00:01:23,190 --> 00:01:37,410 | morning, it is important that you try not to get ahead of that because it can be somewhat destructive. If you're incorrect in your assumptions or your analysis, |
| 3 | 00:01:38,460 --> 00:01:55,410 | and I stand on the sidelines of this report. I've been burned by it many times. So let's take a look at the ES in quick pass through Euro dollar in cable in the |
| 4 | 00:01:55,410 --> 00:02:07,950 | dollar index, we'll take a look at NASDAQ, we'll take a look at the Dow futures. And we'll peek at gold. Okay, so that's what's on tap for this morning, I want |
| 5 | 00:02:07,950 --> 00:02:19,500 | to talk a little bit about where setups form I can trust the principles on teaching but we're going to watch CPI live. So it's important you also |
| 6 | 00:02:19,500 --> 00:02:30,630 | understand that anything I tell you today should be viewed from the safety of a laboratory experiment. I mean, you're not even trying to trade a demo, you're |
| 7 | 00:02:30,630 --> 00:02:41,550 | not even tempted at all to take any trade based on what I'm going to tell you today. I'm not I'm will not I'm not going to come back later on say you want to |
| 8 | 00:02:41,550 --> 00:02:53,220 | do so and so here's what I did because I'm gonna be right here live with you. So let's take a quick look at let's start with the dollar index |
| 9 | 00:03:00,150 --> 00:03:19,080 | Okay, and let's make sure we're on a weekly chart and we're at the bottom of that gap and hear me zoom in is a whole lot of annotations in here from our |
| 10 | 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:34,890 | recent discussions pertaining to dollar so this this gap in here, originally, we treated that as an inversion gap come down and act as support to take us up into |
| 11 | 00:03:34,890 --> 00:03:47,820 | our premium arrays. We have since worked lower back inside this gap. And I mentioned in the last commentary that I want to see if it wants to go outside of |
| 12 | 00:03:47,820 --> 00:03:59,400 | this and then treat this shaded area here as resistance Okay, So so far we've came down and respected the the level of it dropped down into a daily I tried to |
| 13 | 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:12,360 | get through this pretty quick it's only a few minutes before CPI comes down. Okay, so we have somewhat of a small little remaining gap here within Ottawa. |
| 14 | 00:04:12,420 --> 00:04:27,570 | So, I'm going to note that here. So I'll be watching that going into the rest of this week. I don't like the color it does not mean okay does not mean for you to |
| 15 | 00:04:27,570 --> 00:04:36,780 | go in here and assume that dollars gonna sell off right away because I see these buttons here. I want to see if CPI supports this, this idea. So that's why I |
| 16 | 00:04:37,050 --> 00:04:48,570 | tell you don't stand ahead or get in front of the CPI number because it can be very one sided. It can smoke you easily. your stop loss will not protect you |
| 17 | 00:04:49,860 --> 00:05:00,540 | won't have any protective characteristics at all because price can get right on through and the liquidity is pulled. Okay. Believing there's A lot of people out |
| 18 | 00:05:00,540 --> 00:05:13,260 | there want to trade it. But brokers, liquidity providers, they pull the liquidity, they don't let you connect, okay? So because of that, you want to |
| 19 | 00:05:13,260 --> 00:05:28,680 | stay in Assad, let the initial I guess, chaos, hit the marketplace, let the victims start bleeding. And then once the impact crater has been created, then |
| 20 | 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:38,130 | you go around, you look around for the easy targets. Yeah, who's who's left that can be taken out with either short term liquidity runs, or runs to |
| 21 | 00:05:38,130 --> 00:05:50,460 | inefficiencies. So we treat that surge in price action by the CPI number as a means of creating that first initial shock, like imagine right now the the |
| 22 | 00:05:50,460 --> 00:06:01,080 | surface of a pond, real smooth mirror like, and then CPI is going to be like a boulder being dropped in the middle of it. And that first splash. We don't want |
| 23 | 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:12,270 | to be harmed by that. And I don't want any of you my students being harmed by that. But once that occurs, there's lots of new ripples. And every advancing |
| 24 | 00:06:12,300 --> 00:06:23,190 | outward moving circle from that impact are all opportunities, and each one of them are respective to their specific timeframe. So there's setups that are |
| 25 | 00:06:23,190 --> 00:06:32,250 | forming all the time across all different one minute, second charts, that 10 minute charts you can there's all kinds of opportunities and whatever one suits |
| 26 | 00:06:32,250 --> 00:06:41,730 | you is the one that's for you. But I want to see if it wants to get below this then treat this as resistance and start to gravitate towards this. I'm not |
| 27 | 00:06:41,730 --> 00:06:51,210 | suggesting it. We'll do it all in one fell swoop today. Obviously you can do that because this type of market driver that can create those types of runs. But |
| 28 | 00:06:51,210 --> 00:07:00,390 | I want to see doesn't want to get down into here and reprice to this inefficiency between this candles Hi, this candles low more specifically the |
| 29 | 00:07:00,420 --> 00:07:08,190 | opening price of this down close candle on the daily chart and let's go over to Euro |
| 30 | 00:07:15,900 --> 00:07:23,850 | Alright, in similar fashion, we have a bear shorter block here. Very small little gap. Here I'm going to show you the the tooth level so you can see |
| 31 | 00:07:23,850 --> 00:07:27,210 | there's a separation. It's not much but it's there |
| 32 | 00:07:34,380 --> 00:07:36,210 | Okay, so this order block |
| 33 | 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:55,080 | so reaching up into this down close candles range repricing to the separation between these two candles to this candle underneath that cursor that candles |
| 34 | 00:07:55,080 --> 00:08:10,500 | low. In this candles high the candle right above my cursor that candles high to that small little inefficiency. I want to see does CPI lend well, to wanting to |
| 35 | 00:08:10,500 --> 00:08:19,980 | get up into that area is a smaller pool of liquidity in the form of buy stuff that we were talking about this, you don't need any kind of market map. markup, |
| 36 | 00:08:19,980 --> 00:08:31,230 | Bob, what's the escapes me. I mean, there's lots of resources out there that are trying to show you where suppose your orders are resting whatever, you don't |
| 37 | 00:08:31,230 --> 00:08:39,000 | need any of that. Okay, book map, I think it's what it's called. Book map, if you're listening, it's no offense to you, I'm just suggesting that there are |
| 38 | 00:08:39,150 --> 00:08:46,500 | ways of doing what you make available visually, which is great. In the beginning, I probably would have used something like that. But if you study |
| 39 | 00:08:46,500 --> 00:08:56,460 | price action naked, you'll see, you know, above swing highs and short term highs and lows. There's obvious stops and liquidity. And more the market has moved |
| 40 | 00:08:56,460 --> 00:09:06,300 | away from this gap here. traded above the short term high here relative equal highs. So I want to see does it have a willingness to use the CPI number to |
| 41 | 00:09:06,300 --> 00:09:18,450 | expand into this direction. Now if we take out this low here and very specific get below the consequent quarter of this wick? Why this one, because the |
| 42 | 00:09:18,450 --> 00:09:28,800 | difference between the candles open and close on this one inside of the gap, this one over here. It left that fairway gap here there was a change in the |
| 43 | 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:42,630 | state of delivery rate there. So if we get through the consequent curtailment of this wick, that to me spells bearishness on Euro dollar and dollar might |
| 44 | 00:09:42,630 --> 00:09:55,380 | surprise to the upside. But as long as that does not happen, I'm looking for this order block in this gap now for the slow folks. I did not give you the to |
| 45 | 00:09:55,380 --> 00:10:03,630 | scenario I'm going to come back in here I'm right. I'm telling you what I'm looking for Because I don't know at the time, at the very time we're sitting |
| 46 | 00:10:03,630 --> 00:10:14,370 | here live, I don't know, if I knew I'd be trading it CPI, I have no idea what they're going to do. And CPI is one of those events like FOMC rate |
| 47 | 00:10:14,370 --> 00:10:26,220 | announcements, which we'll have tomorrow. This week is littered with landmines. So I teach my students, if you have a week like this, you want to try to get |
| 48 | 00:10:26,220 --> 00:10:37,830 | yourself on Monday. And Monday was a pretty good day. If you want to see a review of how I took yesterday's trade, thumbs up this live stream, it'll |
| 49 | 00:10:37,830 --> 00:10:45,300 | inspire me to do a secondary video later on the afternoon, we'll do a review. And I'll walk you through what I did and how I saw it and go business. But for |
| 50 | 00:10:45,300 --> 00:10:58,050 | now, we're focusing on the CPI. So I'm looking for evidence to support a bias for the rest of the week. So it'll give me insight to see how they use this |
| 51 | 00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:12,900 | data. manual intervention is where the quote unquote powers that be, you call them market makers. They are the the folks are in charge of how far these |
| 52 | 00:11:12,900 --> 00:11:20,550 | markets will go when they'll move. And what price is going to be period. It has nothing to do with your buying and selling pressure, all of our gimmicks, all of |
| 53 | 00:11:20,550 --> 00:11:28,770 | our order blocks all of our supply and demand harmonic patterns. None of that matters when they step in, they will literally reprice to another price level. |
| 54 | 00:11:29,220 --> 00:11:40,740 | And it doesn't matter what Carnage is created from that. So that's the reason why I'm telling you that this type of market driver CPI is dangerous. You can't |
| 55 | 00:11:40,740 --> 00:11:51,810 | trust even my own concepts in front of a move like this, because it can roll right over top of it. And I have been very candid about how I get many times |
| 56 | 00:11:51,810 --> 00:12:02,670 | this very CPI number wrong. It's only very few times I've been able to publicly call it and be correct. So I want you to respect the measure of risk. Do not |
| 57 | 00:12:02,670 --> 00:12:11,250 | look at anything I'm saying today, as a little nudge to say, here is our secret little handshake, go take this straight, please don't do that. Okay, if you're |
| 58 | 00:12:11,250 --> 00:12:20,850 | right, it was luck. I promise you on a day like today with CPI. If you make money, it's luck. That's the only time luck exists when it's complete |
| 59 | 00:12:20,850 --> 00:12:34,950 | uncertainty. And you just happen to be on the side that worked. So I don't trade with luck. I don't rely on luck. I only have that in my expressions for trading. |
| 60 | 00:12:35,460 --> 00:12:45,570 | It's that doesn't exist, you make the results. And skill set and experience dictate that. So that's what I'm looking for. I favor this right now. So that |
| 61 | 00:12:45,570 --> 00:12:54,000 | way you understand what's going on. But if I'm wrong, where do where do I concede and say I'm wrong. And then I look at the market from the opposite. And |
| 62 | 00:12:54,570 --> 00:13:03,330 | as I mentioned, it needs to get below the conclusion of this week, because that's where the state of delivery changed inside this gap and started seeing us |
| 63 | 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:12,630 | run higher, we've taken a pool of liquidity out here. And we went a little bit higher. But these are relative equal highs. So I don't know if they're using |
| 64 | 00:13:12,630 --> 00:13:22,440 | that right there. And then CPI sinks us and they make aggressive runs for the sell side below here. I don't know. So it's important for you understand that |
| 65 | 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:32,220 | there are times where your analysis your experience, your model will be silent and does not mean it's broken, it doesn't mean that they change the algorithm. |
| 66 | 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:41,640 | It just means that you have to sit still. And you have to exercise discipline and self control in wait for the market to give you your setup. You're not |
| 67 | 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:49,740 | trying to be like a crack fiend, okay out there to crack pipe every single day trying to smoke pips and points in these markets, because it's moving around. |
| 68 | 00:13:50,700 --> 00:14:11,640 | You just got to sit still. Okay. So that's the two things I'm looking for for fiber, a quick peek at cable. Cable, I believe this is nice. Came down inside |
| 69 | 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:20,040 | this bison and biasanya fish efficiency, which is a fair value gap. But it's an eight by side imbalance also on efficiency, it trades down to it here and then |
| 70 | 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:26,820 | look at the reaction so far today. So I want to see us return back up into this gap. I'll show you in a second where that's anchored |
| 71 | 00:14:33,210 --> 00:14:45,480 | it's on a weekly chart. I apologize for that. So that's that inefficiency right there. So I want to see the return back into that if it does, it has unfinished |
| 72 | 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:59,460 | business all in here. And that's assuming obviously if the dollar falls off let's get back into daily. So far really cable has been just hanging around as |
| 73 | 00:14:59,460 --> 00:15:08,250 | large concern allocation, not a whole lot of activity. Even though we came down into this gap, trade into it and sugar, initial willingness to want to go |
| 74 | 00:15:08,250 --> 00:15:15,960 | higher, we have to overcome this. Okay, so let's show that in perspective. |
| 75 | 00:15:21,149 --> 00:15:28,319 | So it's going to have to make a real meaningful move outside of that. That range here, I'm keeping it thing like that, you might want to use a dark color. But |
| 76 | 00:15:28,829 --> 00:15:39,119 | the real level I'm trying to be interested in is here. So if we trade above it fall short and come back down to middle of this inefficiency, there will be |
| 77 | 00:15:39,119 --> 00:15:48,539 | consequent encroachment in the form of potential support. So if we run up the fail to get here, that shaded area, like run above and come back down, lower |
| 78 | 00:15:48,539 --> 00:15:57,779 | timeframes might give us an idea after CPI, that would be something I would look for. It's not a trade idea is something I'm running to terms of scenarios. What |
| 79 | 00:15:57,779 --> 00:16:06,359 | do I look for? What would I wait for after CPI? If you don't trade ahead of CPI ICT? What are you looking for after CPI? What are those types of things it's |
| 80 | 00:16:06,359 --> 00:16:17,699 | those these things here I'm trying to outline to you. And it's a quick look at in queue. We are looking at the September delivery contract month now it's |
| 81 | 00:16:17,729 --> 00:16:29,609 | simple you so n qu two zero T three I saw guy post a tweet to me saying he was looking for n Q Q. Q is the month code for August and August is not delivery |
| 82 | 00:16:29,609 --> 00:16:38,489 | month for index futures. It's only March, which is h June, which is m September, which is u and z for December, there's only four contract delivery months for |
| 83 | 00:16:38,489 --> 00:16:55,799 | indexes. So are indices. Alright, so here is the weekly chart. Here is the weekly view on n cube. And like I said, this was the app primer on the upside |
| 84 | 00:16:55,799 --> 00:17:06,419 | the strongest one it has delivered. So enjoy down to a daily Alright, this one here |
| 85 | 00:17:14,369 --> 00:17:24,779 | only experienced speaking here, okay. Because we have a rate announcement FOMC related afternoon tomorrow on Wednesday, and we have the CPI number this |
| 86 | 00:17:24,779 --> 00:17:33,419 | morning, which will be out in about four minutes or so a little less than four minutes, I gotta hurry up. This cell side looks suspect even though we had a |
| 87 | 00:17:33,419 --> 00:17:43,079 | really nice run up in here. I just feel like they're gonna make an attempt to get into this this week, will it be today or tomorrow? I don't know. But this |
| 88 | 00:17:43,079 --> 00:17:54,089 | looks too clean way, way, way too clean. And even if it went down there that would upset folks thinking that it's topped. And then to me the if it went down |
| 89 | 00:17:54,089 --> 00:18:01,529 | below that and rallied and create another short term inefficiency that would be bullish, that could continue going higher. This will upset those individuals |
| 90 | 00:18:01,529 --> 00:18:08,219 | that see this as support or real good areas, trail stop losses below that. Yes, real quick. |
| 91 | 00:18:15,060 --> 00:18:24,750 | I don't I don't see the same thing there. But if n q drops down there, the s&p would want to follow suit and not trying to pick the top and the same CPI, I |
| 92 | 00:18:24,780 --> 00:18:35,220 | look at that number that comes out as a means of trying to smash anyone that's profitable. It can in some instances be used to continue or capitulate and move. |
| 93 | 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:43,500 | I mean, something that's already in a movement like this, it could accelerate and add the last piece of it. So again, that's the reason why I'm not getting |
| 94 | 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:58,110 | ahead of it and trying to trade. In the Dow, this one here I favor or run above this high here. I think that that would be something to expect because it's been |
| 95 | 00:18:58,110 --> 00:19:08,340 | the six SR of all three indices, NASDAQ, I told you it would be the leader. Our focus has been teaching through the price delivery of E Mini s&p and the Dow I |
| 96 | 00:19:08,340 --> 00:19:18,000 | use it as a barometer. Like I use the dollar index, I don't trade the dollar index by user as a risk on risk off. For comparative studies and relative |
| 97 | 00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:30,510 | strength studies for the indices, I use the Dow. So for like Dow Theory, SMT divergences, six SR concepts, those types of things. I lean on the Dow for that |
| 98 | 00:19:30,510 --> 00:19:37,140 | purpose. We have a little bit of an inefficiency right in here. So we could, if we're going to drop initially on CPI, it could go down there and then make a run |
| 99 | 00:19:37,140 --> 00:19:44,880 | up into that. That'd be a scenario we'll watch and see if it manifests today and it's not a trade idea. So please don't take that as such. Let's quickly go back |
| 100 | 00:19:44,880 --> 00:20:06,930 | into ES we'll drop into a lower timeframe. So Joe gold, sorry, real quick and easy. Gold I don't know. There you go gun to my head I would say it's gonna run |
| 101 | 00:20:07,470 --> 00:20:21,240 | with the sell side below here there you go that's what I think I'm probably wrong please don't treat it okay but I wouldn't touch this at all all right yes |
| 102 | 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:37,500 | it's dropped down to a 15 minute time frame smaller gap in here by side rests above here so 30 seconds or so everybody that's in the trades gonna regret |
| 103 | 00:20:37,500 --> 00:20:50,910 | hadn't been in it and everybody gets lucky you're posted on social media and offer signals per purchase. So here's where our sell side is I'm gonna try to |
| 104 | 00:20:50,910 --> 00:20:59,310 | keep the annotations light this focus on my viewpoints sell sides here by side here inefficiency rate |
| 105 | 00:21:08,970 --> 00:21:10,350 | so you want to trade cpit |
| 106 | 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:28,950 | ran up in hit our airbag that I was talking about ran through it a little bit that's okay. Which is mean threshold are here then swept the sell side now by |
| 107 | 00:21:28,950 --> 00:21:29,730 | sides next |
| 108 | 00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:42,390 | quick look at NASDAQ. |
| 109 | 00:21:48,660 --> 00:21:54,360 | Tickets sells out here. They made up for by side down |
| 110 | 00:22:03,420 --> 00:22:20,250 | wherever your two minute timeframe, let's take a look at the daily on a deal like this Hi. So whenever I have a week like this, I'll measure the midpoint |
| 111 | 00:22:20,250 --> 00:22:28,800 | which is consequent encouragement. That would be first objective. And then I want to see if it wants to get above here. I could be wrong because it may use |
| 112 | 00:22:28,860 --> 00:22:38,340 | this initial pump to feed into that and in tomorrow's rate announcement, do something completely opposed to what I've outlined and not even come up here. |
| 113 | 00:22:38,340 --> 00:22:41,610 | But I think that this is a likely draw on down |
| 114 | 00:22:54,359 --> 00:23:12,989 | I know I hear you bitching. Gonna go over here. Very good. Sorry. Thank you. I mean, I was going through charts, a few of you like to read me about not having |
| 115 | 00:23:12,989 --> 00:23:25,739 | the title. I don't know. I don't know how you get on Toggle Don't, don't usually mess with it. So we've had buyside here, and sellside taken the initial draw, |
| 116 | 00:23:26,159 --> 00:23:41,099 | let's go into a moment chart. All in one moment, in one minute. The market opened here ran up just a little bit above the fair value gap, then slammed down |
| 117 | 00:23:41,099 --> 00:23:49,079 | to take sell side and then in the same minute, one candle close up here after running up the buy side. So in one minute look how much the market has reversed. |
| 118 | 00:23:51,029 --> 00:23:58,079 | Now, do you believe that you're going to be nimble enough to trade in that when the liquidity is already pulled anyway, your broker is not going to let you |
| 119 | 00:23:58,079 --> 00:24:07,319 | trade that. Okay, you're not going to see these guys out there that put a buy order in a sell order. Unless they're running their whitelist fake broker, |
| 120 | 00:24:07,679 --> 00:24:16,709 | they're running their own scam, those orders will get filled because it's not really happening. But in a real market, none of that shit works. Okay, you're |
| 121 | 00:24:16,709 --> 00:24:26,879 | not going to be allowed to be trading it will not let you fill. So as much as I love having fun and ripping other people and I can make a good living too. It's |
| 122 | 00:24:26,879 --> 00:24:38,999 | important that when that matters, when real discussions about risk in money and the potential loss of it. I don't sugarcoat any of that. So I'm telling you if |
| 123 | 00:24:38,999 --> 00:24:45,929 | anybody's out there showing you examples where they get filled, and they got a really good entry here and they got out here that's total grade a bullshit okay, |
| 124 | 00:24:45,959 --> 00:24:53,219 | they didn't get filled they didn't trade it and anybody that tells you otherwise Okay, demand they do that and show you broker statements log into their brokers |
| 125 | 00:24:53,279 --> 00:25:07,739 | account and show you not an MT four MT five account because that's bullshit to a reputable broker. I'm sorry, that's just the facts, okay? I consider myself a |
| 126 | 00:25:07,739 --> 00:25:20,039 | little bit better than the average bear. And I don't believe I can make my stuff work even in these environments, because it's highly manipulated, like you are |
| 127 | 00:25:20,039 --> 00:25:32,249 | absolutely up against a brick wall. And you can't, you won't be permitted period. because it moves so fast brokers can take because he'd be book a lot of |
| 128 | 00:25:32,249 --> 00:25:42,989 | people, they could be wrong by happenstance and over leveraging Larry, that can be in there doing big moves and get lucky. They have to, they have to pay that |
| 129 | 00:25:42,989 --> 00:25:54,569 | out, because of the fierceness and velocity of how fast it moves around. You know, it's that's just that's how the business works, folks, I mean, you can be |
| 130 | 00:25:54,569 --> 00:26:02,039 | mad about it, or just understand that's what takes place and respect that, it's okay, I'm not going to play in that sandbox, I'll wait. |
| 131 | 00:26:12,210 --> 00:26:25,740 | So this is literally a 5050. Now, because it's, it's taken both sides of the liquidity up to drew your attention to working off the fair value gap I |
| 132 | 00:26:25,740 --> 00:26:38,340 | mentioned first. Now. The takeaway in this is I want you to think about how we were looking at the buy side and the sell side. Forget right? Forget being |
| 133 | 00:26:38,340 --> 00:26:50,100 | wrong, forget profitability, think, Okay, think about this. All of the movement that took place thus far, was all inside of a one minute basis, or two minutes. |
| 134 | 00:26:51,090 --> 00:27:07,380 | That's it. So all of this movement from here, and here, that happened in a blink of an eye, you would not have the the ability. If you didn't have limit orders |
| 135 | 00:27:07,380 --> 00:27:18,960 | in that could be filled not to be would be, you wouldn't have the ability to adjust or to comprehend what is it you should be doing next. Especially if |
| 136 | 00:27:19,290 --> 00:27:28,230 | you're a new student or a new trader, you have no idea what you're doing. You have no idea to where you would measure a willingness to seek continuation up or |
| 137 | 00:27:28,230 --> 00:27:37,590 | down. Maybe you didn't even know where these pools of liquidity were before I mentioned them. So if you don't know those things, why would you even gamble on |
| 138 | 00:27:37,590 --> 00:27:50,280 | this report that's coming out. Or that's that came out six minutes or so ago. It's important not to see these things and see how much it moves and think to |
| 139 | 00:27:50,280 --> 00:28:01,770 | yourself, if I would have got a piece of that that's not that kind of move. Okay, that's that's not what this is. This is a trap. This is a very difficult |
| 140 | 00:28:01,770 --> 00:28:10,770 | thing to convey to, to new traders or new students, because they think somebody absolutely bought the low down here, or in this area, and then sold it up here. |
| 141 | 00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:20,640 | They believe that and I'm telling you, that didn't happen. If it happened, they'll gladly go into their broker account and login live, login to their |
| 142 | 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:30,000 | password blocked out, that's fine, but go in there and show their time and date and time and sales fields. On a reputable broker, you're not going to see that. |
| 143 | 00:28:30,540 --> 00:28:39,510 | Okay, believe me, folks, if I could do that, in this report, I would be dealing every month every time I would do it. I would do that. Just to show you this is |
| 144 | 00:28:39,510 --> 00:28:54,510 | the way it is. But I'm telling you up front because I want to protect you. This type of market driver is essentially risking ruin. But we can identify it and |
| 145 | 00:28:54,510 --> 00:29:04,890 | use it like I teach the US the Non Farm Payroll. Okay, Non Farm Payroll, I don't trade that report. You can trade after the Non Farm Payroll report, you can |
| 146 | 00:29:04,890 --> 00:29:21,930 | trade after the CPI number. But ahead of it. No. Because you know, you have no idea. You have no idea I have no idea where it's gonna go one or CPI number. So |
| 147 | 00:29:21,930 --> 00:29:30,180 | what makes you think you do as a greenhorn someone to just start a couple months watching some videos from you some Yahoo teachers with a demo account, you think |
| 148 | 00:29:30,180 --> 00:29:41,250 | you're going to be able to beat this? No, don't do that. You're going to create scar tissue. So what I did this morning, I outlined how to focus on what to look |
| 149 | 00:29:41,250 --> 00:29:53,430 | for what you would study and in a minute or less, drew out here's where the buy side is. Why did I call this out? Look at the the idea of it not wanting to go |
| 150 | 00:29:53,430 --> 00:30:05,340 | higher. So retail sees this as what? strong resistance say they can be short in their mind. stop losses would be above these highs here, in the form of buy |
| 151 | 00:30:05,340 --> 00:30:13,470 | stops, that's what we call buy side liquidity I took you over here to the relative equal lows was gonna be resting below that sell stops, which is why we |
| 152 | 00:30:13,470 --> 00:30:25,680 | call that sell side liquidity. Both sides of the marketplace are always in contention for high impact news drivers like CPI rate announcements, Non Farm |
| 153 | 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:36,930 | Payroll, those types of things. Anytime you see in your lower timeframe charts, the smooth edges like this, were very smooth relative equal lows were very |
| 154 | 00:30:36,930 --> 00:30:46,230 | smooth route the eagle eyes, they are going to be made Jagat meaning it's going to rip through it like it does here. So now they're not so smooth already. Now, |
| 155 | 00:30:46,260 --> 00:31:00,600 | if this, this whole movement down here was a function to offset any positions or interest, because it controls sentiment as well. With orders resting below here. |
| 156 | 00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:13,170 | Down here, I'm sorry, up here rather than down here, where to go? The looking at the relative equal highs, the market ran for those as well. And then what has it |
| 157 | 00:31:13,170 --> 00:31:22,170 | done since it's staying in between those two pools of liquidity. But what did it do? First, they went right to the fair value gap. I mentioned overshot it by a |
| 158 | 00:31:22,170 --> 00:31:30,060 | little bit, which is understandable. Given the nature of this report that came out. And then inside of all this move, it dropped down. Now you can't see it |
| 159 | 00:31:30,060 --> 00:31:43,710 | like this. So if I, if I'm in a one minute chart, here's the 830 candle, it opens trades up it looks like it completely rolls right on through it. But we |
| 160 | 00:31:43,710 --> 00:31:53,940 | saw momentarily before it ran up higher. It ran up to it here and stopped raining here it stopped and then moved lower. Then came all the way back up in |
| 161 | 00:31:53,940 --> 00:32:11,490 | overlapped entire run and then went to the bicep. I'm gonna have to show it to you on a 32nd chart here. Opens, rallies up drops down still 15 second chart. |
| 162 | 00:32:12,390 --> 00:32:23,280 | There's the move right there. That's what it looked like. It opened, ran up. This came this big green green candle here didn't exist yet. Watch the video. |
| 163 | 00:32:23,610 --> 00:32:31,980 | Okay, when the livestream put that I don't know if I can you rewind my live streams, I don't think of disabled that you should be able to rewind it. And |
| 164 | 00:32:31,980 --> 00:32:40,050 | then tap the Live tab and love that left hand corner Neil to refactor where I'm at live. But you can watch it where it opens, it trades up creates that short |
| 165 | 00:32:40,050 --> 00:32:50,010 | term high there, then it runs for the sell side. And then on the same one minute candle, it opens here on this 15 second candle and then runs for the buy side. |
| 166 | 00:32:52,380 --> 00:33:05,550 | Then, now we're hanging around in here. So I think we could make a potential run higher, to take out this high. This rundown here and looks a little aggressive. |
| 167 | 00:33:06,060 --> 00:33:23,010 | It feels like they went down there fastest. In in this movement here. This is a lot of that. Run, break, retest go short. I think traders are trying to go short |
| 168 | 00:33:23,070 --> 00:33:33,210 | from the retail perspective. And they would want to reach up into this wick here. I would observe and study with that idea in mind. It would look like this. |
| 169 | 00:33:35,730 --> 00:33:42,900 | It's not a trade folks. This is what you're doing when you're reading the tape. It gives you experience watching price action, well you don't push the button |
| 170 | 00:33:42,930 --> 00:33:52,980 | even in a demo, you get a feel for what price is likely to do you spend a lot of time doing that. If If I would have done that, in the beginning, I would have |
| 171 | 00:33:52,980 --> 00:34:03,300 | spared myself years of drawing down blowing accounts. And it would have been a lot faster for me to find consistency. So here's the level I'm referring to |
| 172 | 00:34:04,110 --> 00:34:13,230 | 44 07 and then 44 05. Even that's the midpoint of this gap here. Okay, so watch and see if he wants to draw |
| 173 | 00:34:19,110 --> 00:34:28,860 | the main takeaway while saying was even in this fast market move, the fair value gap I mentioned and the liquidity pools bid, went to the fair value gap, then |
| 174 | 00:34:28,860 --> 00:34:40,110 | dropped the sell side then ran for the buy side. So the takeaway would be even in that speed. Okay, within one minute. The very levels that I gave you, the |
| 175 | 00:34:40,110 --> 00:34:50,790 | algorithm referred to immediately in a way in a in a speed and velocity that even I can't participate in it. So the takeaway is for you to see that they're |
| 176 | 00:34:50,820 --> 00:35:06,570 | even in this recklessness that looks like chaos and just carnage. It's still You're being controlled. But it's being controlled in a way where it's going to |
| 177 | 00:35:06,570 --> 00:35:16,860 | move a lot in a short span of time, but you're not being permitted to profit during it. That's, that's what I'm trying to convey to you. It's an illusion, |
| 178 | 00:35:17,430 --> 00:35:25,860 | these types of moves are the very things that draw people into wanting to trade. Because they think that you can get in here and take these trades and make 2030 |
| 179 | 00:35:25,860 --> 00:35:38,580 | handles in a minute over leveraged and get a five figure withdrawal. So don't fall for that trap. It's very, very important that you don't fall for that trap. |
| 180 | 00:35:56,010 --> 00:36:08,640 | Okay, there's the run into our consequent correction, I mentioned it withdrawal to that's enough to pay your bills right here, folks. And now doesn't seem like |
| 181 | 00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:19,140 | it's all that sexy. But that little mood right there. That's what a high frequency trading algorithm does. It trades on that type a little move hundreds |
| 182 | 00:36:19,140 --> 00:36:30,780 | of times per session. Now look at the reaction of that. Just that little move right there. That in itself is a high frequency trading algorithm entry that |
| 183 | 00:36:30,780 --> 00:36:39,090 | moves back and forth, there's algorithms that trade one sided, they stay in a buyer model for buys, or going long. And there's other high frequency trading |
| 184 | 00:36:39,090 --> 00:36:47,850 | algorithms that trade on the sell side, it's a sell side model. So it's only going short when it's offering opportunity to do so. And then you have a a |
| 185 | 00:36:47,850 --> 00:36:57,690 | model, a high frequency trading algorithm that simply goes all over the place. It takes whatever volatility is available at the time. And it runs up, down, up, |
| 186 | 00:36:57,690 --> 00:37:07,290 | down, up, down, up down. That's the stuff because I get asked all the time, what is it that you want to teach us, it's that I'm not allowed to teach you that? |
| 187 | 00:37:07,620 --> 00:37:17,730 | I'm not going to teach that. But I have demonstrated it before in the past. And I'm very candid about saying I'm not going to teach that part to you. But |
| 188 | 00:37:18,810 --> 00:37:28,680 | instead of saying look at how much you've already taught and look how much the impact has been for other people, they're making real money with it now. The |
| 189 | 00:37:28,710 --> 00:37:41,310 | point of appreciation is lost because you forget everything I've already shared openly, and works amazingly well. And because I say I can't do something like I |
| 190 | 00:37:41,310 --> 00:37:50,610 | can't focus, I can't literally I cannot, I'm not permitted to do it. I would love to do it. Trust me, I get real close as close as I can. And the students |
| 191 | 00:37:50,610 --> 00:38:00,420 | that really, really, really want to know it, they think that I hidden in my teachings, I did not. Okay, I did not teach anything like that. I'm not allowed |
| 192 | 00:38:00,420 --> 00:38:08,700 | to do it. But you don't need that I need to do is find one little multiplayer, one little thing that gives you a setup. One little thing that gives you a |
| 193 | 00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:18,660 | reason to engage the marketplace, measure risk define it. That means know where your stop should be in and where you should take profits partial. And where you |
| 194 | 00:38:18,660 --> 00:38:30,810 | think Terminus is where's your best case, exit. Sometimes my trades don't go to full terminus, because I'm illustrating either a point of not needing to be 100% |
| 195 | 00:38:30,810 --> 00:38:40,680 | accurate. So that way, it encourages you as my students, or sometimes as a human, I just don't do it correctly. Or I'll take off more than I should have. |
| 196 | 00:38:40,980 --> 00:38:47,340 | In hindsight, I look back and say, I wish I left a little bit more on the trade, that part is always going to be there. No matter how good you get at this, |
| 197 | 00:38:47,820 --> 00:38:56,520 | you're always going to be wrong, even in your winning trades, you're going to wish you would have had more held on longer, got out sooner. It's always like |
| 198 | 00:38:56,520 --> 00:39:06,990 | that. Okay, so this craft that you're involved in now is a lifestyle. It's not, you learn how to make money, and that's it, you've reached your destination. |
| 199 | 00:39:07,290 --> 00:39:22,050 | Excellence is a pursuit. It's not a destination, it's final, it's always, always going to be something that you're striving to do better, and reach for. And mine |
| 200 | 00:39:22,050 --> 00:39:31,590 | is my exits. And I've been open about that as well. I always want to make them better, because I have lots of ways to get into things. But I'm never fully |
| 201 | 00:39:31,590 --> 00:39:43,680 | satisfied if I'm going to be honest with you. I'm never satisfied ever with my exits. And I have got out on the highest tick a handful of times. And I got in |
| 202 | 00:39:43,710 --> 00:39:54,900 | and out of trades on the lowest tick a handful times. But you would think with 30 years, I would have a whole lot more examples. I don't because I'm either |
| 203 | 00:39:54,960 --> 00:40:07,230 | trying to out think my algorithm or I'm trying to find something that I haven't identified yet. And because of those distractions, my mind's going 1000 miles an |
| 204 | 00:40:07,230 --> 00:40:17,100 | hour, it's hard for me to focus, which is another reason why I don't like to have people chatting to me. And even when my son's next to me, they're not |
| 205 | 00:40:17,100 --> 00:40:26,220 | allowed to say anything to me, because that small little distraction would like now, like me pointing over to him, like, it takes me off my train of thought. |
| 206 | 00:40:27,180 --> 00:40:35,610 | And you have to, especially for like me, I have to be very dialed in. And I'm very easily distracted. I'm like, a dog sees a squirrel, like, what, but like, I |
| 207 | 00:40:35,610 --> 00:40:48,390 | can't focus. So maybe you don't have that issue in your trading, maybe you're, you can multitask, you know, and do exceedingly well. Even as a trader, I don't |
| 208 | 00:40:48,420 --> 00:40:58,440 | have that skill set, I can't, like I have to be 100% dialed in. Because I have so many things that I can see as an opportunity. See where it is, you have one |
| 209 | 00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:07,080 | model or two, two things, maybe three things that you learned from me. And if one of those things occur, it's easy for you to focus, okay, I see this. But you |
| 210 | 00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:18,240 | got to understand, like, I have ab plus things that are jumping off the chart at me, which one do I want to eat off of? I'm like a dog in a meat market turn |
| 211 | 00:41:18,240 --> 00:41:25,620 | loose, like, do I want to run over there and bite that do I want to run over here and bite that, like, that's the, that's the closest analogy I can give to |
| 212 | 00:41:25,620 --> 00:41:36,180 | you. Like I hear so many things I can see as an opportunity and price, whether it be a three handle run a 10 handle run a 15 handle run, a run that goes eight |
| 213 | 00:41:36,180 --> 00:41:46,320 | handles reverses for four runs for 13. Like those, those things are jumping off the chart all the time to me, and dependent on what my mind is focused on at the |
| 214 | 00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:55,140 | time. If I'm if I have a means of sitting down and trying to explain something to an audience, or if I'm doing a lecture or whatever, or if I'm teaching my son |
| 215 | 00:41:57,450 --> 00:42:08,910 | whatever when I go with. Okay, that's the one I go with. And I'm always and this is the part that you mean, I'm saying I'm always regretful that I didn't do one |
| 216 | 00:42:08,910 --> 00:42:16,830 | or the other. Because I have so many of the Choose from you think that if I sat down and I divulges all of them to you that it's going to make you a better |
| 217 | 00:42:16,830 --> 00:42:32,640 | trader, it doesn't. It's, it's almost like well, if you have more than one child, which one's your your favorite. You can't say which one's your favorite, |
| 218 | 00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:42,780 | right. But when you're in the market, and you're trading and you're looking at price action, it is very difficult for me to say I love this one more than that |
| 219 | 00:42:42,780 --> 00:42:53,220 | one. So whenever I come to the decision on, this is what I'm going to go with. That's it, but the whole time price is running, I know my mind at certain times |
| 220 | 00:42:53,220 --> 00:43:01,170 | that the arrow is going to do certain things. And then price presents this certain thing that I would expect in that instance for that particular model |
| 221 | 00:43:01,170 --> 00:43:11,520 | that work for me to take an entry, but I'm already in something. I'm wrestling with that the whole time, the markets ticking. That is such a distraction. So |
| 222 | 00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:18,630 | imagine that that's what it was like for you. So please, if you're if you're upset with me, because I'm been honest with you and told you, I'm not going to |
| 223 | 00:43:18,630 --> 00:43:30,210 | teach you everything. And it's not important for you to learn everything, all you need is one thing. Just one thing. And most important thing is is where |
| 224 | 00:43:30,210 --> 00:43:41,310 | price is going to go with literally like there's so many ways to get into a trade. If you're right in where you where you think it's gonna go, if you have |
| 225 | 00:43:41,310 --> 00:43:51,060 | that understood, it makes it a lot easier. And allows you to hold on to your trade, and you don't have the frustration you see many live streamers, you they |
| 226 | 00:43:51,060 --> 00:43:58,920 | get in there and they make whatever they're making. Know glad hand and cherry not cherry pick, but they'll be their chest and they're amazing this and that. |
| 227 | 00:43:59,430 --> 00:44:07,230 | And the market just keeps on running. And then they in the same lifetime. They're crying about how I gotta learn how to do this, I gotta hold on, hold on. |
| 228 | 00:44:07,950 --> 00:44:16,170 | You got to spend more time understand where it's going to reach for and not just focus on these lower timeframes in the lower timeframes are wonderful for entry |
| 229 | 00:44:16,170 --> 00:44:28,650 | and in managing risk. But if your trade is entirely linked to and founded on a lower timeframe, drawl and liquidity, you're missing the point entirely. You're |
| 230 | 00:44:28,650 --> 00:44:41,430 | completely missing the entire focus of why you should be taking trades. You need movement folks. As a trader, we need displacement and a change from one price to |
| 231 | 00:44:41,430 --> 00:44:51,540 | another over a duration of time, how much time you have to you have to come to that conclusion. What it fits for you. For some of you holding overnight. It |
| 232 | 00:44:51,540 --> 00:45:00,600 | can't happen. You won't let yourself do that. Others you can't be in a trade longer than 10 minutes in 10 minutes is long term position trading to you I'm |
| 233 | 00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:10,710 | not saying that that's a bad thing. Because if you decide on what your main comfort zone is, how long can you hold a trade before you start getting antsy? |
| 234 | 00:45:11,670 --> 00:45:21,570 | If you're really, really impatient, and you can't overcome impatience, then you will do very, very well, in intraday charts working with one minute timeframes, |
| 235 | 00:45:21,870 --> 00:45:32,040 | and you can get your setups in one minute bars, get it be done and stop trading for the day, go do something else. And you would probably be very, very |
| 236 | 00:45:32,070 --> 00:45:45,300 | profitable doing that. But will you be comfortable seeing these 30 handle runs that happen over the span of the entire daily range? How about 100 handle moves |
| 237 | 00:45:45,300 --> 00:45:49,380 | or 1000 handle plus moves that I've just outlined the NASDAQ over the last month or so? |
| 238 | 00:45:51,210 --> 00:45:57,120 | Are you going to be regretful about that and let that beat you up, it's it's very important that you understand these things. And when I got into trading, I |
| 239 | 00:45:57,120 --> 00:46:06,690 | didn't know those things. Were going to be barriers. They're going to be speed bumps to you, and sometimes roadblocks for others for you finding your success. |
| 240 | 00:46:10,380 --> 00:46:18,480 | And why somebody needs to hear that. That's why I said it. So we drop these on here for reference and move this fit because it's not too much. |
| 241 | 00:46:37,620 --> 00:46:45,750 | All right. So again, this is a 15 second chart, you probably don't have that on your trading view, but you're watching it online. |
| 242 | 00:46:51,660 --> 00:47:04,650 | So what would a high frequency trading algorithm entry be on a BI model, high frequency trading algorithm, you can see very plainly that I outlined that we |
| 243 | 00:47:04,650 --> 00:47:14,610 | would likely draw up into the consequent coachman this wick here on the 15 second chart, and then potentially draw to here. Now the draw I'm thinking is up |
| 244 | 00:47:14,610 --> 00:47:26,670 | here because it's it's going to move on the folks that see this as a high low break and retest and try to go lower. That's that's what the algorithm is |
| 245 | 00:47:26,670 --> 00:47:36,300 | running on. It's already ran to the the majority of the position holders here because their stock would have been right above here. Not because you're looking |
| 246 | 00:47:36,300 --> 00:47:47,250 | at a 15 second chart, because they're looking at Dom's depth of market. They're reading all these types of things. Okay, and there's gimmicks or they're not |
| 247 | 00:47:47,250 --> 00:47:57,330 | helpful, you believe they are, I promise you that you have a religion. It's faith based on that stuff being the catalyst as to why markets going up or down. |
| 248 | 00:47:57,330 --> 00:48:09,840 | And it's not to the short holders that would use this as a short. This run into this inefficiency right there. In this order block, that's a trade. It's a high |
| 249 | 00:48:09,840 --> 00:48:17,910 | frequency trading algorithm. But that's what the sell side. I mentioned, when we got into lower timeframes were before we dropped into the second chart, I said |
| 250 | 00:48:17,910 --> 00:48:29,790 | that I believe that we're going to move higher. And I need the outline as to why I believe that based on these second charts. So folks like Goldman Sachs will |
| 251 | 00:48:29,790 --> 00:48:37,200 | tell you that there's noise on these lower timeframes. And if anybody tells you, they can find trades in this or find profitability and run away from their |
| 252 | 00:48:37,200 --> 00:48:47,970 | economy. And I assure you, I promise you how many times you'd be sat here with me on livestream and dances to my record. So the opening here, it trades down |
| 253 | 00:48:47,970 --> 00:49:01,290 | into that. And then we have a short term high. It's broken to the upside. So now think for a moment. Your mindset is, I'm strapped in. I'm in the saddle, I'm |
| 254 | 00:49:01,290 --> 00:49:11,070 | only running for by side. So the high frequency trading algorithm that you would be studying in this practical in this type of price action would be only looking |
| 255 | 00:49:11,070 --> 00:49:20,550 | for Long's or only looking for buys. Okay, and how could you use that? But what if I told you what was what were the what were the signatures that you've |
| 256 | 00:49:20,550 --> 00:49:33,420 | understood so far, about what price uses to go higher? You have to have a shift in market structure. Here, it was swing high. It rallies through it on this |
| 257 | 00:49:33,420 --> 00:49:46,830 | candle right there. It runs higher, that's fine. But what does it leave small little inefficiency right there. It just ran our target there. That's it but |
| 258 | 00:49:46,830 --> 00:49:54,360 | that's it right there. That is all you need. Folks. What you just watched me outline here. I told you the direction I favored. I told you what it was likely |
| 259 | 00:49:54,360 --> 00:50:02,400 | to do. And I'm using a 15 second chart. Tell me somebody else out there that's wrote books me horses with a 15 second chart and can tell you how it's going to |
| 260 | 00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:16,770 | act and be like this doesn't happen. So a order block, okay is a change in the state of delivery. Okay, it is not a zone. It is not every down close candle |
| 261 | 00:50:16,770 --> 00:50:30,360 | that is an older block, it is not an up close candle, every single one is over a block is a frame of reference, where a change in where price will be drawn to or |
| 262 | 00:50:30,360 --> 00:50:43,290 | from that occurs here. Why am I using this down close candle and not this one over here. This one has the larger body. So it's spent more time and recorded |
| 263 | 00:50:43,290 --> 00:50:55,620 | more time in duration, at its extremes. That lowest close that makes this an order block. This swing high that it's part of when it trades above it here. |
| 264 | 00:50:55,980 --> 00:51:07,320 | That's a shift in market structure. So that means high frequency trading algorithms will trip to by side. And they'll all be looking primarily for the |
| 265 | 00:51:07,320 --> 00:51:18,000 | largest leverage to be on this side of the marketplace. Now, the chaos high frequency trading algorithms that trade up and down all day long. They'll take |
| 266 | 00:51:18,000 --> 00:51:26,310 | this trade too, but they'll also take the shortness fear of a gap here that trades to it and trade back down into this inefficiency in changing the delivery |
| 267 | 00:51:26,310 --> 00:51:39,960 | which is the opening price. Don't believe me? Look? Here's the opening price. I'll never call this stuff my you'll never see him do it, folks. I'll do it with |
| 268 | 00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:49,830 | a 15 second chart just to rub it in your face. The opening price. Fair Pay Gap? How do you qualify a high probability order block? It will have my fair value |
| 269 | 00:51:49,830 --> 00:52:03,750 | gap. Not every down close candle is an order block. Not every down close candle with a fair value gap. Like this is a long. Wait, that's a contradiction? No. |
| 270 | 00:52:04,110 --> 00:52:18,870 | That's a refinement. I'm teaching you narrative logic framework. The fact that we had this idea here, what was the first side of liquidity taken at CPI, we |
| 271 | 00:52:18,870 --> 00:52:30,030 | opened here at 830. It opened rallied up here stopped short and then went down below to take the buy side I'm sorry to the sell side. So what side of the |
| 272 | 00:52:30,030 --> 00:52:39,990 | marketplace did the algorithm run to first What do smart money players the folks that don't write books that aren't going to be talking to you? I'm it I'm the |
| 273 | 00:52:39,990 --> 00:52:47,790 | one that stepped out I'm not supposed to be doing these things. You're not supposed to know these things. So I had to create a language so that way if I'm |
| 274 | 00:52:47,790 --> 00:53:01,230 | tapped on the shoulder again, I am teaching this I'm not teaching that it's Pepsi or Coke or they're both Colas they both poison but you have a choice so |
| 275 | 00:53:01,230 --> 00:53:14,550 | you have what delivery to sell side burst so smart money the folks that understand the algorithm the folks that follow it lead wait for this signature |
| 276 | 00:53:14,550 --> 00:53:26,430 | here because the first that tells you the direction because they're going to run for sell cipher so this is reason why I told you I believe is gonna go up here |
| 277 | 00:53:26,670 --> 00:53:33,900 | How did you know that ICT How did you know it's gonna go higher Why did you why did you pick that Why Why didn't want to come back down to consequent Christian |
| 278 | 00:53:33,930 --> 00:53:44,490 | of this wickets what someone you're probably thinking right now. Holy crow, he just read my mind. You look around the room right now for microphones or any a |
| 279 | 00:53:44,490 --> 00:53:56,580 | bugged your computer, right? I'm hacking your system. It doesn't need to go down to the kitchen and this because the narrative is it ran for sell side and then |
| 280 | 00:53:56,580 --> 00:54:06,480 | quickly repriced away from it, it does not need to come back down here before it goes up to the buy side and how it delivers. Listen, folks, how it delivers |
| 281 | 00:54:06,480 --> 00:54:16,260 | price after the second pool of liquidity is engaged. the sell side was below here. I'll go back up to the higher timeframes in a moment for now I outline all |
| 282 | 00:54:16,260 --> 00:54:28,770 | this. the sell side was taken first. That means the move will be likely prolonged and much more prominent to the buy side. That means it's going to go |
| 283 | 00:54:28,770 --> 00:54:41,850 | higher. It upsets the orders and sentiment by this drop down here. Then it runs for the buy side. It breaks lower, comes back up and then creates a false |
| 284 | 00:54:41,940 --> 00:54:53,100 | shorting opportunity. It delivers a short run. Traders See that that were short they think in Yeah. Wow. You know, I got four handles five handles or so. I'm |
| 285 | 00:54:53,100 --> 00:55:02,520 | getting ready to take out that low down here. It's gonna keep going for the rest of the day lower. rung. You only report access to the opening price here at 830. |
| 286 | 00:55:07,080 --> 00:55:21,510 | So you can accept it, but it's all controlled, opening price trades down look at the bodies, they tell you the story. The wicks need to damage, the body stops |
| 287 | 00:55:21,510 --> 00:55:32,820 | right at the opening price. The 30 algorithm receives that as information comes back down to it stops on a dime turns around creates your short term shift and |
| 288 | 00:55:32,820 --> 00:55:45,660 | microstructure, they're down close candle, bullish order block separation here. Come back down into it hit the order block respect it, closing the inefficiency, |
| 289 | 00:55:46,380 --> 00:55:57,660 | time distortion, all this movement here. As long as we're not breaking below the midpoint of this down close candle, everything's still a go. What I'm looking at |
| 290 | 00:55:57,660 --> 00:56:07,770 | is this range from this high of this candle down to that low. As long as these two candle reference points here have not been breached, above or below. All |
| 291 | 00:56:07,770 --> 00:56:15,870 | this stuff in here, I'm ignoring every bit of it. I'm not looking at any fair value gap inside of that, I'm not looking at any kind of potential order block, |
| 292 | 00:56:15,960 --> 00:56:25,560 | because this range here, that's your dealing range, it will not be anything of any importance or significance unless it trades outside of that range. And |
| 293 | 00:56:25,560 --> 00:56:33,270 | because I'm telling you and as I told you live here, I believe it's going to go higher, and take up behind the first drawers here in the buy side above this |
| 294 | 00:56:33,270 --> 00:56:47,370 | high here. So all these candles from this green candle right above my cursor, all the way until we get to this candle is high, right there. So this candle all |
| 295 | 00:56:47,370 --> 00:56:51,750 | through till here means nothing to me. |
| 296 | 00:56:53,250 --> 00:57:05,010 | I'm not looking any of those candles and having any respect of anything it's doing. Because the return from this fair pay gap here. Let me draw down. This is |
| 297 | 00:57:05,010 --> 00:57:13,920 | complicated ICT. I just want to overbought oversold and I'm not your man, then go go watch somebody else. But you want to understand why the markets doing what |
| 298 | 00:57:13,920 --> 00:57:22,200 | it's doing. And you can trust and sleep at night that you know that the stuff that you're learning isn't going to stop. It's never going to be beaten up or |
| 299 | 00:57:22,200 --> 00:57:32,130 | victimized by anything better. Because there anything that this is the market. I'm teaching you the market. The market rallies up into that inefficiency again, |
| 300 | 00:57:32,790 --> 00:57:41,970 | and trades down only to offer delivery to the order blah, close the inefficiency. And then time is spent marking time it's it it's we're in 15 |
| 301 | 00:57:41,970 --> 00:57:52,350 | Second candles. So it's his hanging around. What is it doing? What do you think's occurring inside of all these ranges in here, between this candles high |
| 302 | 00:57:52,380 --> 00:58:04,710 | in this candles low, that's all one order block. What kind of order blah, propulsion block, look at month four content on my YouTube channel. Because it's |
| 303 | 00:58:04,740 --> 00:58:15,240 | all of this price action from this candle below my cursor all the way over to here. All these candles are inside this. So my mindset in focus is inside this |
| 304 | 00:58:15,270 --> 00:58:21,750 | range, everything is happening inside it, I could care less, because my mind is already established. What the algorithm is gonna refer back to is this signature |
| 305 | 00:58:21,750 --> 00:58:31,860 | here I've coded. So all of this price action here is irrelevant. It's just marking time where prices move in that interval, the highest and lowest |
| 306 | 00:58:31,890 --> 00:58:40,200 | beginning and the end. That's all it's doing. But my mind as a trader and the analyst is I'm looking at inside this range here. I want to see this range |
| 307 | 00:58:40,200 --> 00:58:50,250 | maintain itself, and then eventually break to the upside which we get right there. Where does it draw to? Where I told you here? And then what does it do? |
| 308 | 00:58:50,280 --> 00:59:05,640 | It stops and then consolidates, what's it doing? What does it doing folks think? The order block, it trades down to it. It's spending time down here. For traders |
| 309 | 00:59:05,640 --> 00:59:13,020 | that understand what I'm teaching you that they're not going to go out there in public and raise their hand say, you know, yeah, ICT, you know, his right knee, |
| 310 | 00:59:13,110 --> 00:59:24,150 | this is what we do. They don't want me teaching it to you. Trust me, they don't want me teaching this. So I it took a great deal of prayer and answered prayer, |
| 311 | 00:59:24,660 --> 00:59:34,920 | to have this shown to me in charts so that way I can convey what it is that's happening outside the chart. The algorithm is not only doing what I'm showing |
| 312 | 00:59:34,920 --> 00:59:43,140 | you in candlesticks, there are other things that I know that I can't teach because there's no way for me to bridge that gap between what you can see in a |
| 313 | 00:59:43,140 --> 00:59:53,100 | chart. Like I can't, I can't say okay, if it does this, this is what doesn't work like that. So there's only a limitation of what it is I'm willing to share |
| 314 | 00:59:53,100 --> 01:00:04,710 | with you and you have to be content with that. But I promise you, if you just take a step back Look at what I'm showing you. It's light, years, way, way, way |
| 315 | 01:00:04,710 --> 01:00:12,690 | beyond everything else. You don't need to have this much degree of understanding. But what do you think's occurring in here, the algorithm is |
| 316 | 01:00:12,690 --> 01:00:22,170 | allowing time for traders that are in the know, that are real smart money. They're not like off traders. They're not supplying to me and guys, they're not |
| 317 | 01:00:22,170 --> 01:00:34,560 | Goldman Sachs guys. Okay? They don't know this stuff. I promise you, they don't know this. It's allowing them to get their orders in before the algorithm read |
| 318 | 01:00:34,560 --> 01:00:45,990 | prices, then it goes through her first point of reference, which is the consequent crushing with this with your stops, and then spends time what's it |
| 319 | 01:00:45,990 --> 01:01:01,560 | doing, allowing them to build a larger position? What's the model where where's price being drawn to higher. So allows them to accumulate more Long's. And then |
| 320 | 01:01:01,560 --> 01:01:12,930 | as it runs up, they're distributing all their initial entries in here, they're selling it some in here. And then new algorithm entries are in here, killing |
| 321 | 01:01:12,930 --> 01:01:23,640 | more. And as it runs, update, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, and that provides liquidity. So there's this dance that's always occurring between |
| 322 | 01:01:23,640 --> 01:01:32,610 | inefficiencies and liquidity, premium to discount discount the premium always, that's what's occurring. It has nothing to do with harmonics has nothing to do |
| 323 | 01:01:32,610 --> 01:01:42,570 | it. Bullshit animal patterns, has nothing to do with Elliott Wave has nothing to do with anything that you see in a retail book price. There's not moving on any |
| 324 | 01:01:42,570 --> 01:01:56,760 | of that bullshit. That's not what's going on folks. And buying and selling pressure is not it. That is not it. Your market profile, your volume bars turned |
| 325 | 01:01:56,850 --> 01:02:04,350 | vertical. Okay, so you're, you're looking at him over here. Okay, you're looking at that, and you're looking at level two data, and you think that makes you |
| 326 | 01:02:04,350 --> 01:02:16,920 | smart, or that makes you in the know, that is a gimmick. It's a red herring, you're looking at stuff, and you're not seeing the things I'm showing you. But |
| 327 | 01:02:17,700 --> 01:02:32,340 | I'm showing it to you in a 15 second chart, think about it 15 seconds, prices behaving in a way in which it's been coded, it's behaving as it's told, it's not |
| 328 | 01:02:32,340 --> 01:02:45,630 | being pushed around because buyers and sellers. That's not what's occurring here, folks. Sorry, if I hurt your feelings, I'm sure some of you worked in an |
| 329 | 01:02:45,630 --> 01:02:54,390 | industry and you feel like you're, you're part of the team and all but you, you have a title, that you have an ignorance, you have no idea what makes these |
| 330 | 01:02:54,390 --> 01:03:10,380 | markets go up and down. And I'm not I don't care about titles. So one minute, and we have an opening price, we trade down to here, rally up, consolidate |
| 331 | 01:03:10,380 --> 01:03:27,210 | around what's it working in here on the one minute chart, mean threshold. Rally, consolidate, allow smart trade or smart money to accumulate more Long's and |
| 332 | 01:03:27,210 --> 01:03:36,150 | displace into the upside. Now look what's occurring here. We're getting short term highs. We run above it, short term high run above it, when it starts doing |
| 333 | 01:03:36,150 --> 01:03:44,700 | this. And you watch me do this many times. And I just did it again yesterday, in my trade for ES when it starts creating these short term highs every time it |
| 334 | 01:03:44,700 --> 01:03:55,650 | runs above that, and your long, high frequency trading algorithms are dumping portions of their position above that, that's why I do it. Okay, I'm in there |
| 335 | 01:03:55,650 --> 01:04:07,020 | doing the same thing that these entities are told to do when they work with these algorithms. And if they're doing it, they're doing it because it's a |
| 336 | 01:04:07,020 --> 01:04:21,690 | purpose in mind. They're offset distribution. If they have accumulated long positions in here, and in here, how do they how do they exit short term highs |
| 337 | 01:04:22,020 --> 01:04:33,090 | move away from it above that high it's going to be by side. Sell to those by side creates a short term high retrace back down in case the short term high |
| 338 | 01:04:33,210 --> 01:04:44,040 | when it runs above it again, sell off set distribute, offset their long positions and distribute them to willing buyers. Where are the willing buyers |
| 339 | 01:04:44,040 --> 01:04:53,010 | above market price? Every tiny created short term high somebody in here some joker, okay? Some clowns out there believes that Elliot waves and animal |
| 340 | 01:04:53,010 --> 01:05:00,420 | patterns move the market around. They're in you're trying to trade their little gimmicks and they're trying to go short. So if they're going short They're going |
| 341 | 01:05:00,420 --> 01:05:07,020 | to try to do what they're going to use an order that they think is protective. For short position, they use a buy stop, where they're going to play step by |
| 342 | 01:05:07,020 --> 01:05:21,510 | step above the recent swing high. So using narrative, reading, where price is going to go, why it should go there, when it will consolidate and pause. I |
| 343 | 01:05:21,510 --> 01:05:33,090 | taught you that life today. I've taught you literally sat down here with the intelligence. Now, did I tell you exactly how to do it right before CPI? No, |
| 344 | 01:05:33,120 --> 01:05:45,330 | because I have to wait and see what that does. What does it leave? It leaves clues all the time. But I have to wait to see what it will run for. I can't call |
| 345 | 01:05:45,330 --> 01:05:54,690 | the high and the low the day until midnight in New York. But the if I'm doing analysis, and I'm talking to someone, they say, Hey, what do you think about |
| 346 | 01:05:54,690 --> 01:06:03,870 | this, and when you think about that, if I don't have the reference points that's required at midnight, I can only talk about what I know, based on the |
| 347 | 01:06:03,870 --> 01:06:13,680 | information that's being shown in the information that we have available at that time. When we have these high impact, or medium impact drivers that come out in |
| 348 | 01:06:13,680 --> 01:06:26,070 | the marketplace, I have to wait for the other potential for manual intervention, manual intervention is here. We initially opened, ran above the fair value gap, |
| 349 | 01:06:26,100 --> 01:06:35,910 | then dropped for sell side. So think about what I taught you. We outlined real time before the market delivered where the liquidity would be and the |
| 350 | 01:06:35,910 --> 01:06:53,490 | inefficiency that would be utilized. It opened, ran up just above it, let's go back down to the 15 second chart. Oops, change that |
| 351 | 01:06:58,830 --> 01:07:10,590 | we opened, rallied about that fair value gap I outlined then ran for the sell side, then it ripped higher for the buy side. The fact that it ran to the fair |
| 352 | 01:07:10,590 --> 01:07:20,100 | value gap here, then to the sell side in itself, if it was not a high impact news driver like this, that type of run would have happened over the morning |
| 353 | 01:07:20,160 --> 01:07:31,890 | session. And the later run in the afternoon would have been this move here to device. But because of the removal of liquidity, believe me, there are people |
| 354 | 01:07:31,890 --> 01:07:44,490 | that want to trade this. But brokers and liquidity providers they pull access away from the marketplace. That's intervention, that's manipulation. That is a |
| 355 | 01:07:44,490 --> 01:07:54,120 | barrier to you being profitable, whether you like it or not, it's going to happen. And that's what they do around Non Farm Payroll too. And they say, oh, |
| 356 | 01:07:54,120 --> 01:08:00,690 | there's a there's a an absence of liquidity, not because it's organic. Believe me, there's people that want to trade, they think they're going to have |
| 357 | 01:08:00,690 --> 01:08:10,830 | something that is profitable during this whole move. They created some kind of thing with a Moving Average crossover. And they want to trade it, they believe |
| 358 | 01:08:10,830 --> 01:08:20,610 | it's going to make them rich. No, it's prevented because these types of moves offer a lot of movement in a very short span of time. And somebody could be |
| 359 | 01:08:20,730 --> 01:08:31,020 | really wrong, by accident, make a lot of movement, in terms of profit in the broker, if there be booking them, they have to take that hit. They don't want |
| 360 | 01:08:31,020 --> 01:08:37,440 | that. That's the reality of this business, folks. Okay, they're not gonna come out and say, Yeah, that's right. It's true. You're gonna hear people come in and |
| 361 | 01:08:37,440 --> 01:08:46,740 | say, Oh, he's full of shit. He's a liar, who's out here showing you what the markets gonna do on a 15 second chart. You got to look man, if someone is saying |
| 362 | 01:08:46,740 --> 01:08:55,860 | something, and they can't bring it, show receipts, then okay, then don't trust that person. But if someone's willing to sit out here live, and explain all the |
| 363 | 01:08:55,860 --> 01:09:05,940 | mechanics before it happens. Either they know what they're talking about, or they had something to do with it. And I leave that up to you. You decide if I'm |
| 364 | 01:09:05,940 --> 01:09:18,420 | full of shit, you'll know. If I'm not you'll know. But after the fact, how we traded what was the first poll liquidity that was ran the sell side? Now think |
| 365 | 01:09:18,420 --> 01:09:31,410 | about if you were long for any trader that was long. If this report ran down a hit that stop loss, would you be willing to get back in to go long? Be honest |
| 366 | 01:09:31,410 --> 01:09:43,710 | now. Chances are no you wouldn't. And that's why they do it. They run for the liquidity on the side that they don't want to want. Though, not gonna say it |
| 367 | 01:09:43,710 --> 01:09:56,040 | right. They run for the liquidity first on the side that they want to make sure they scare out of entering and being on the right side. So it's the first run on |
| 368 | 01:09:56,040 --> 01:10:06,660 | liquidity on Medium or High Impact news drivers. That tends to be by the side, that would be the winning side. If they wait, then you see the buy side ticket |
| 369 | 01:10:06,660 --> 01:10:15,690 | after. But you have to wait. You have to wait, what does it want to do? It pulls back inside the range what range between the two pools of liquidity? That's this |
| 370 | 01:10:15,690 --> 01:10:26,850 | line here, in this line here, let me pick them up. If you're on Twitter, and you follow me on Twitter, if you like what I'm teaching, this is resonating with you |
| 371 | 01:10:26,850 --> 01:10:38,580 | give me a how you don't like the cuss to say Hekia Okay, so these these two reference points, that's their that's your range okay. So, after took the sell |
| 372 | 01:10:38,580 --> 01:10:52,530 | side out, and in the buy side, it pulled back into the range. Now, both of those pools of liquidity define a very specific range for liquidity purposes, we |
| 373 | 01:10:52,530 --> 01:11:00,990 | outlined by side was above here and sell side was below here. The algorithm knows both those points of reference just like I showed it to you live before it |
| 374 | 01:11:00,990 --> 01:11:01,860 | was being used. |
| 375 | 01:11:07,470 --> 01:11:24,540 | Where to go to consequent Parchman Kretschmann right in the middle. Range, low range high liquidity above it liquidity below it goes back to consequent |
| 376 | 01:11:24,540 --> 01:11:34,440 | encouragement, the bias I gave you is going higher? Would it reach for the first draw here? And then we wait does it want to take the buy side here? Then we went |
| 377 | 01:11:34,440 --> 01:11:49,890 | into Hi, hi, hi. What I tell you all set distribution, algorithms start selling and offsetting their long position. At every time it takes out a high they're |
| 378 | 01:11:49,890 --> 01:12:05,760 | doing that distribution, they're selling to those buy stops. What do they do after that? We're off the highs. Listen, folks. I don't know what you call |
| 379 | 01:12:05,760 --> 01:12:15,390 | foresight versus cherry picking. I don't know where you're from, what your culture is and beliefs about things. But when someone says something and it |
| 380 | 01:12:15,390 --> 01:12:24,420 | fucking happens, it's it's pretty set in stone that either it works or it doesn't. And if you can't see this, like really, there's nothing else, there's |
| 381 | 01:12:24,420 --> 01:12:35,790 | nothing else I can do that make you understand that these things are driven 100% 100% controlled. A one minute chart |
| 382 | 01:12:41,190 --> 01:12:57,810 | does fit well here. So in all this business, notice that this wick here I went inside the range between that high in that close with that 15 second chart. So |
| 383 | 01:12:58,260 --> 01:13:07,590 | you might have a measurement of consequent corrosion on this wick here. That's fine. But in this wick, I want to be in the lower timeframe. Very, very small |
| 384 | 01:13:07,590 --> 01:13:22,110 | timeframes. And I just showed you precision with 15 Second charts. I told you how to omit and don't even refer to specific candles. That's, that's one of the |
| 385 | 01:13:22,110 --> 01:13:30,300 | arguments that people will say. They'll say, hey, you know time based charts are nonsense. They're garbage. Does that mean that someone doesn't believe number |
| 386 | 01:13:30,300 --> 01:13:40,050 | one, there's an algorithm to doesn't believe that you can use the element of time as the most influential factor in price delivery. Because everything around |
| 387 | 01:13:40,140 --> 01:13:57,600 | price delivery is first controlled and delivered by a schedule. It's time. It's time and price theory. Time and price theory not price in some gimmicks. Okay, I |
| 388 | 01:13:57,600 --> 01:14:07,890 | know how to use a time based chart because I know time I know the time when the algorithms gonna behave, I know what it's likely to follow. And then I also know |
| 389 | 01:14:08,370 --> 01:14:18,000 | how to omit certain candles don't pay attention to certain ones. And that's the folly that I see people over the years they've taken things look at this older |
| 390 | 01:14:18,000 --> 01:14:26,490 | blocks don't work because they'll point to down close candles that aren't being respected. You have no idea what an order block is. And the folks that are |
| 391 | 01:14:26,490 --> 01:14:35,100 | making YouTube videos the simple way of using order blocks the best order block you don't know what an order block is take those videos down. It's embarrassing. |
| 392 | 01:14:35,430 --> 01:14:37,800 | Stop. Seriously stop |
| 393 | 01:14:43,890 --> 01:14:58,260 | Alright, so I want to ask you point blank. If you see a reason to be accumulating a long position in here and in here in the market gives you all the |
| 394 | 01:14:58,260 --> 01:15:09,030 | signature in here We understand that this pattern here is a three drives pattern, or, as Linda Raschke. And Larry Conners wrote in their book street |
| 395 | 01:15:09,030 --> 01:15:21,090 | smarts was I love and adore that book, not everything in that book I subscribe to. But that was one of the very influential manuscripts that taught me how to |
| 396 | 01:15:21,090 --> 01:15:36,810 | view stop hunts like that, that book wrong in the first introduction to victimizing traders. When I got stopped out, I just said, Well, you know, that |
| 397 | 01:15:36,810 --> 01:15:47,340 | system didn't work, or I did it wrong. And I would beat myself up emotionally and psychologically, and wreck myself constantly about how I did that wrong, not |
| 398 | 01:15:47,340 --> 01:15:56,160 | knowing that one of the primary functions of the market is to go to where liquidity is, and if you're wrong, obviously, you're the liquidity. So when I |
| 399 | 01:15:56,160 --> 01:16:03,750 | first started, that's how it was for me. And maybe that's where you're at in your development right now. Maybe you're, you're struggling because every time |
| 400 | 01:16:03,750 --> 01:16:13,200 | you participate, maybe sooner than you should even with demo. You're getting stopped out, and you're getting frustrated. And just know that I went through |
| 401 | 01:16:13,200 --> 01:16:25,290 | that for years. I know you see the things that I do and teach and show and call in real time to. And it can't be a time when ICT was a new there was there |
| 402 | 01:16:25,290 --> 01:16:35,580 | really was and I was the poster boy for it. Like I blew accounts like crazy and did it in stunning fashion. Okay, if you're going to do it and do it, right, I |
| 403 | 01:16:35,580 --> 01:16:46,650 | was the that was the best one doing it. Every possible thing that would cause me to blow an account. I did it. Recklessness, greed, impatience, system hopping, |
| 404 | 01:16:46,980 --> 01:16:58,830 | testing stupidity, seeing if certain things that, you know, I had a hunch about, none of that was helpful. And then because of the pain of losing money, in the |
| 405 | 01:16:58,830 --> 01:17:08,100 | ideas that initially came from Larry Williams, you know, His confidential trading course, for future millionaires are something that effect you know, |
| 406 | 01:17:08,130 --> 01:17:16,260 | you've heard, you've heard me talk about it many times. That that gave me a framework to start looking at the market differently. Whereas I was always |
| 407 | 01:17:16,260 --> 01:17:25,890 | jumping around, and why I don't use the things that he teaches or taught then, predominantly, I still believe that that would be a wonderful starting point for |
| 408 | 01:17:25,890 --> 01:17:40,290 | someone like to, to know how to look at price in the beginning. But I there's a lot of stuff that he does, that's indicator based now that I love him to death. |
| 409 | 01:17:40,350 --> 01:17:49,110 | And he is my first real mentor. If I was honest, it would be Ken Roberts was, well, Nana Naina technically, it's really my uncle. My uncle Stan was my first |
| 410 | 01:17:49,110 --> 01:18:00,390 | mentor. He's the one that was talking me into trading when I was 1415 years old. And I really wasn't interested, showing me charts and stuff. But the first paid |
| 411 | 01:18:00,390 --> 01:18:13,260 | mentor I had was Ken Roberts, and I bought his World's Most Powerful money manual on course, and it was about trading commodities, and very, very poor |
| 412 | 01:18:13,710 --> 01:18:22,950 | presentation of the marketplace. But it made me think I could quit my job in over a span of 20 years I could you retire, that I started fleshing out this |
| 413 | 01:18:22,950 --> 01:18:32,670 | whole idea of getting rich, long term. And if I could make $1,000 a month, that would get me there. That's how I first started. Now contrast that with what you |
| 414 | 01:18:32,670 --> 01:18:42,840 | see on Instagram and YouTube and Twitter and discord and everything else that's out there. It's real fast Lamborghini lifestyle, get rich real quick, in that |
| 415 | 01:18:43,560 --> 01:18:54,150 | unfortunate, because you shouldn't be thinking like that. But it's gonna take you a lot longer than you want to believe it will just know that. And I wasn't |
| 416 | 01:18:54,180 --> 01:19:01,680 | for the long term, I knew it was going to be hard. But I didn't realize how hard I was going to make it for myself. I knew how to do most of what I'm doing here. |
| 417 | 01:19:03,600 --> 01:19:14,700 | The first three and a half years, but then I started to tinker with improving it and made more mistakes. And this went back to what I had arrived at. So with |
| 418 | 01:19:14,700 --> 01:19:26,160 | that information, coupled with chance meetings with people you're not ever going to meet that combination of insight, you know, makes me who I am inner circle |
| 419 | 01:19:26,160 --> 01:19:44,520 | trader ICT the guy but I want you to think about what level of contentment Do you require? Are you trading to be the best social media trader? Are you trading |
| 420 | 01:19:44,520 --> 01:19:51,900 | to be the guy that makes the biggest pitfall or point Hall? The guy that tries to get the highest high and the lowest low and what is it that you're trying to |
| 421 | 01:19:51,900 --> 01:20:02,550 | do? Because I went through all those stages. As a trader, I went through all of that. The markets about to open up in a moment And the one you got to settle in |
| 422 | 01:20:02,550 --> 01:20:10,380 | on is the person that makes the money that you're comfortable with making something, you think that you want to make millions of dollars, and I'll be |
| 423 | 01:20:10,380 --> 01:20:18,120 | honest with you, it's scary. Sometimes when you're making big money, and you're probably not prepared for that, I'm gonna be honest, if you're not prepared for |
| 424 | 01:20:18,120 --> 01:20:30,000 | that, nobody is when you start making big money. It's a weird feeling, you think it's gonna be like, easy, it's not. Because it's intoxicating. You think that |
| 425 | 01:20:30,300 --> 01:20:37,410 | every big winner is going to be available every single time you get into a new trade. And you gotta, you have to control that impulse. |
| 426 | 01:20:43,350 --> 01:20:57,300 | Smart Money distributed, real time I was explaining it to you. And look where we're drawn down to the high end of that by some liquidity pool. That's this |
| 427 | 01:20:57,300 --> 01:21:11,400 | over here. And the lows are here. Okay. So when I show examples on building new entries and stuff, and the guys out there that are trying to sell their blackbox |
| 428 | 01:21:11,400 --> 01:21:20,370 | bullshit, they hate the fact that I'm able to do it. And they want to say it's cherry picked, and I can't trade and my students don't make money and do what |
| 429 | 01:21:20,370 --> 01:21:31,200 | they do. I understand marketing, understanding, and all that stuff. But it really looks bad. When you're constantly out there saying that my students or I |
| 430 | 01:21:31,200 --> 01:21:42,420 | can't do this stuff. And I'm constantly doing it. Real time. I'm not afraid to be out here and doing this and calling it the logic is real. The authorship is |
| 431 | 01:21:42,420 --> 01:21:53,220 | genuine. And it repeats. It's something that's transferable. And when I'm outlining what it should do, and how it should behave, I'm leaning on elements |
| 432 | 01:21:53,310 --> 01:22:03,900 | that you aren't able to know. And I'm trying to teach by example, with experience and repetition. For the folks that really want to learn how to do it, |
| 433 | 01:22:03,960 --> 01:22:13,560 | you can get it from what I'm teaching, you can get the very thing that you're looking for. But the problem is, if you're constantly moving and evolving into |
| 434 | 01:22:13,560 --> 01:22:29,160 | what your your definition of success is. Watch this little area in here. If you're constantly changing that, how do you rate or measure success? Like what |
| 435 | 01:22:29,160 --> 01:22:39,210 | is it that you're looking for that meets the goal? Like are you trying to trade to be better than me or better than somebody else that doesn't like me, so you |
| 436 | 01:22:39,210 --> 01:22:51,090 | can flex on social media because if you're doing it that's stupid. If you're trying to be the fat, most followed trader, you should run into that. You're |
| 437 | 01:22:51,090 --> 01:23:02,280 | trying to do all those things. They're they're superficial, they don't mean anything. Doesn't mean shit. Make money, being able to take care of yourself and |
| 438 | 01:23:02,280 --> 01:23:10,500 | your family and build generational wealth. That way you can transfer this information once you learn it, it's yours. It's your skill set. You'll probably |
| 439 | 01:23:10,500 --> 01:23:17,670 | be met with the same thing that my own kids have. And because all of you think that their man ICTs kids, they should be so good at trading and this that |
| 440 | 01:23:17,670 --> 01:23:26,310 | nothing their kids, just like I was I wasn't interested when I was 14 and 15 years old monk was trying to tell me he had made money. I didn't give a shit. I |
| 441 | 01:23:26,310 --> 01:23:34,650 | didn't care. It didn't mean anything to me. I wanted to be a kid. And that's where my kids are and I'm trying not to rush them because believe me I want them |
| 442 | 01:23:34,650 --> 01:23:45,060 | to know how to do this. And they just our kids their this their children that Hartsville and even my 20 year olds they're still trying to find themselves and |
| 443 | 01:23:45,060 --> 01:23:58,440 | my daughter is completely lost she's perpetual student college kid because she doesn't want to embrace adulthood and go out there and fail and I'm her golden |
| 444 | 01:23:58,440 --> 01:24:00,150 | parachute that keeps protecting her |
| 445 | 01:24:06,420 --> 01:24:06,930 | see |
| 446 | 01:24:15,930 --> 01:24:31,020 | don't close candle yeah so far we're expecting that to see how if we get up into this area here to be good above it and entry this support and it's got to be |
| 447 | 01:24:31,020 --> 01:24:31,410 | sharp |
| 448 | 01:24:39,570 --> 01:24:49,350 | little bit of ways to go to beat up internet inefficiency there. Initially we have worked into this high so there was by sight here. So that's what we're |
| 449 | 01:24:49,350 --> 01:25:01,740 | looking at. Also on how the market was reaching into those short term highs and I was telling you that's how smart money offset did distributes their position |
| 450 | 01:25:01,950 --> 01:25:15,150 | when they're long. So, look at this high here, okay? I'm going to make this purple because I know epic, we got other colors on the lower timeframe, or maybe |
| 451 | 01:25:15,150 --> 01:25:29,370 | I delete it I don't recall. But it's good back down to one minute chart. That purple line here is that weekly, or daily chart high. We went above it. And |
| 452 | 01:25:29,370 --> 01:25:43,350 | since we went above that we're in kind of like an area of the word excuse me, I can't think of what I'm trying to say. But we're above that high. Where |
| 453 | 01:25:43,380 --> 01:25:58,110 | liquidity, how far do you see it reach on the daily chart? Let's go back up to our weekly rally. This high here, the next important level above here is inside |
| 454 | 01:25:58,110 --> 01:26:07,530 | of this inefficiency right there. Okay, so we have consequent encroachment, about mid plans is get the measurements. And that's what we're gonna do and do |
| 455 | 01:26:07,530 --> 01:26:22,710 | it right. So 4428 Okay, so 4428 is constant encouragement. Again, I'll just throw this in here, because invariably, I know some of you were like, can you |
| 456 | 01:26:22,710 --> 01:26:38,820 | show me your fib settings. So the first time I watched your video and that's an extension, so I'll take that. And that's an extension. Okay, so there's your ICT |
| 457 | 01:26:38,820 --> 01:26:48,630 | fib settings. We want a video if you want to see it again. So consequent crutches midpoint, and that's above this high here. So by side that we rest |
| 458 | 01:26:48,630 --> 01:27:01,440 | above here, so buy stops. Who would have advice about that long term hedge fund traders big large funds. Great to hear 4428 Okay, let's midpoint of this candles |
| 459 | 01:27:01,440 --> 01:27:12,900 | low in this candles high in that inefficiency. Here's a fair Vega, what kind of fair value city sellside inbalance buyside in efficiency, meaning that if the |
| 460 | 01:27:12,900 --> 01:27:21,690 | market were to efficiently reprice to this, it would be doing it with a run higher, we we only had one pass through on the downside with this candle here. |
| 461 | 01:27:21,960 --> 01:27:33,180 | Between this candles low and this candle is high, we have a partial run into it here. But we now have exposure still with inefficiency between this candles low |
| 462 | 01:27:33,930 --> 01:27:58,080 | in this candles high. So what I'm saying is if we look at it like this that's the only real at this moment in efficiency that resides in that old gap between |
| 463 | 01:27:58,080 --> 01:28:15,480 | here and here. But not the zone, I look at very specific price levels. The 50% level of this inefficiency here. That is consequent coachmen at 4428. So that's |
| 464 | 01:28:15,480 --> 01:28:27,000 | a real level, it's not some range, it's a very specific level. Now because we have this range between this high in this candles low that shaded in blue, I |
| 465 | 01:28:27,000 --> 01:28:42,810 | would do the same thing with that. So that we would have a consequent current level of 4441. So I have 4441 is a key level to the upside. And 4428. They |
| 466 | 01:28:42,810 --> 01:28:52,260 | should be on your charts, how you note them, it's your business. I have it written in my notes. It's a certain piece of paper that key levels. And I have |
| 467 | 01:28:52,320 --> 01:29:00,870 | notations of what timeframes are anchored to that's it. So me showing you that it would mean nothing to you. But showing you in a chart like this and teaching |
| 468 | 01:29:00,870 --> 01:29:10,170 | it on already always teaching the Bible. So I'm interested in anyway, every time I'm doing analysis or whatever. But that's how I'm referring to upside and where |
| 469 | 01:29:10,170 --> 01:29:19,410 | it might draw to. But we just poked her head above this old high. And then let's go back to the net one minute chart. Remember, I was counting on you to look at |
| 470 | 01:29:19,410 --> 01:29:31,500 | how we were going higher, higher and higher. Smart Money that went long in here and down in here. They would be selling their long positions above this high |
| 471 | 01:29:32,400 --> 01:29:43,200 | above this high. And that's how you get your three dries type formation. Okay, which is retail pattern. It's wonderful. But how do you know when it forms? |
| 472 | 01:29:44,430 --> 01:29:52,320 | Everything I've outlined here this morning, I told you and brought your attention to rate when it was forming. Is that cherry picked and without |
| 473 | 01:29:52,320 --> 01:30:07,410 | teachers? So I would like to see how we behave this way gap right here do we go through it like a hot knife through butter and go into this by side or do we run |
| 474 | 01:30:07,410 --> 01:30:15,630 | above it come back down and act as support and then run with a little bit more sustain run could manifest itself if it did that way |
| 475 | 01:30:22,200 --> 01:30:35,250 | so we had what was it a five minute Yeah. So we had our five minute gap I told you watch that there went higher but inside this range of this wick, okay, let's |
| 476 | 01:30:35,250 --> 01:30:56,130 | go through that. four minute three minute two minute. One minute. Did you notice how the body's except for the four minute look at again here's one minute look |
| 477 | 01:30:56,130 --> 01:31:11,040 | where the bodies were were they going inside the fair value gap? No, just the wicker How about the two minutes before the bodies were the wicks went down to |
| 478 | 01:31:11,040 --> 01:31:25,590 | offer what the inefficiency that was in here. What is it inefficient? So side delivery, it's a buy side imbalance sell side inefficiency. Busy. There is a |
| 479 | 01:31:25,590 --> 01:31:35,370 | fair value gap by classification but specifics it's a bias and imbalance so sorry efficiency, meaning that it will likely need to drop into that again |
| 480 | 01:31:35,520 --> 01:31:54,030 | offering repricing once we leave that range becomes what it's a balanced price range let's go into three minutes before the body stopped here for a minute see |
| 481 | 01:31:54,030 --> 01:32:05,670 | what's happening there. The wicks are doing damage but it's off offering the sell side but the wicks and bodies are not both inside that fear maker. So was |
| 482 | 01:32:05,670 --> 01:32:16,290 | it telling you it's likely to go higher which is why I told you I would like to see how it trades to this and if it goes above it It thinks that the draw and |
| 483 | 01:32:16,290 --> 01:32:22,230 | here's what we're looking for but if it goes above it here but fall short of this high does it act as support |
| 484 | 01:32:34,230 --> 01:32:39,060 | see these flaring the wrong colors always do this |
| 485 | 01:32:59,970 --> 01:33:10,200 | always tell myself to pour my water into a cup so that we don't hear my water bottle crackling but never remember to do it such a rebel |
| 486 | 01:33:21,720 --> 01:33:35,370 | There you go. Beisa. So we didn't get a return back into offer a support which would have been a nice little area of study for entry. But we did get the fear |
| 487 | 01:33:35,370 --> 01:33:52,530 | of a gap I mentioned here scope into that chart so now how far can it go ICT when I have these types of runs what I like to use the fit for I'll take the FIB |
| 488 | 01:33:53,490 --> 01:34:11,730 | anchor to the low dollar to this high import the extensions okay, this will be first partial, assuming that you would like if you're looking at price action, |
| 489 | 01:34:12,480 --> 01:34:18,240 | whether you back test it and it's already happened like when you go to work and come home later on, you're watching this video or if you were at school, or if |
| 490 | 01:34:18,240 --> 01:34:27,000 | you're waking up if you were sleeping while it's being live. You go back to data like this and you look at the price swings like this, you measure it one half of |
| 491 | 01:34:27,000 --> 01:34:39,000 | one standard deviation, or negative 0.5. That's always going to be a partial. No matter how you trade, whether it's this timeframe or another. If you have an |
| 492 | 01:34:39,000 --> 01:34:46,710 | extension that offers you profitability, I don't care if it's not even five handles. You'd have to learn to take something here when you're first brand new |
| 493 | 01:34:46,710 --> 01:35:00,600 | at learning how to do this because it will reward you and allow you to graduate into trusting, trusting yourself trusting price action and men drink when it |
| 494 | 01:35:00,600 --> 01:35:08,430 | doesn't reach it, how often is it not reach it versus how many times it does. And then what you're seeing here it was negative one standard deviation, which |
| 495 | 01:35:08,430 --> 01:35:20,010 | is really the measured move of this low, this high, added to this high projected up similar words, if you were to take this movement from here to here, duplicate |
| 496 | 01:35:20,010 --> 01:35:32,100 | it from this high projected up. That's what this negative standard deviation of one is. So it's a perfect measurement. I like to look at how we have treated |
| 497 | 01:35:32,160 --> 01:35:44,790 | also. So let's assume for a moment and play devil's advocate that we were long in here. And we rallied up and we took partials here. And we wanted to trade the |
| 498 | 01:35:44,790 --> 01:35:56,520 | daily range, not trade the session. When I'm doing my examples, I'm teaching you how to trade that particular session. So I'm moving my stop up to protect the |
| 499 | 01:35:56,550 --> 01:36:05,550 | open profits for that particular session, which is what you watched me do yesterday, and you see me do in last Thursday's example. So I showed you both |
| 500 | 01:36:06,150 --> 01:36:17,550 | those positions. Working what the long side. Why? Because my higher timeframe analysis that I've been sharing with you has been calling es higher. Why? |
| 501 | 01:36:17,580 --> 01:36:27,600 | Because it's going to trade in sympathy to NASDAQ, even though NASDAQ, I told you was the was going to be the leader. How do you manage the impulsiveness that |
| 502 | 01:36:27,600 --> 01:36:37,470 | comes in with not being in the strongest one because either you didn't know it, or you did it by air? I'm teaching you how to not even concern yourself with |
| 503 | 01:36:37,470 --> 01:36:46,890 | that. So if I've already told you that NASDAQ was the leader on the upside, but I'm going to teach you with a medium of the ES E Mini s&p, cynics will say, Oh, |
| 504 | 01:36:46,890 --> 01:36:56,970 | well, you didn't trade in in queue. So you're not even following them out? No, I'm teaching you. And those individuals that will struggle with the idea that |
| 505 | 01:36:56,970 --> 01:37:04,050 | they didn't trade NASDAQ when it was the strongest one, because they didn't know or was told by me after November of this year, I won't be telling you these |
| 506 | 01:37:04,050 --> 01:37:15,300 | things. So you have to lean on your own experience and what you know. So while it can be frustrating that you're not in the faster running market, it doesn't |
| 507 | 01:37:15,300 --> 01:37:26,640 | matter because you can still find it, you can still find setups. So by having this outlined experience, where we note the markets likely drilling these higher |
| 508 | 01:37:26,640 --> 01:37:36,690 | timeframe, premium arrays, that means it's going to go up? How do I engage with it? Well, how do I teach you first start looking for one good set up per week, |
| 509 | 01:37:37,680 --> 01:37:46,650 | just find one good, so not an everyday setup. Because if you can find a setup that you can find once a week, that same model, that same approach that you use |
| 510 | 01:37:46,650 --> 01:37:57,090 | for that one setup that you've been waiting for, for one period of trading inside of an entire week, you're going to forge discipline, self control, you |
| 511 | 01:37:57,090 --> 01:38:05,970 | will get your ends met by that. And because you're getting experience with it, you can take that and reduce it to a smaller timeframe. And you can find more of |
| 512 | 01:38:05,970 --> 01:38:18,450 | that same model information across the entire spectrum of the week. So we're bullets exist in many runs, but I just gave you a very specific time when they |
| 513 | 01:38:18,450 --> 01:38:30,300 | form every day. But unless you know where the markets gonna go, it's highly unlikely that you're gonna be consistent with it because you're just gonna be |
| 514 | 01:38:30,300 --> 01:38:38,940 | guessing you're gonna look at every little separation between three candles, and think it's a fair bet I get that it's an entry point. And it's not. You still |
| 515 | 01:38:38,940 --> 01:38:48,870 | have to know where the market is likely to go to. Now, devil's advocate say we were long and it wasn't a CPI day. It was just normal every run of the mill day. |
| 516 | 01:38:49,140 --> 01:39:00,060 | And we went long in everything behaved as we see here. We were taking partials here, we will take a majority of our trade off. In here, the stock would have |
| 517 | 01:39:00,060 --> 01:39:15,750 | remained below the opening price. At 830. When the market started making its runs go back into one minute chart. Here's your a 30 opening price. You would |
| 518 | 01:39:15,750 --> 01:39:30,690 | still have your stop where it would be below this opening price. Initially. It is scrubbed up a little bit this week, consequent crushers, we would be in here, |
| 519 | 01:39:30,810 --> 01:39:38,550 | your stock would have to be below that. But ICT earlier you said it doesn't need to go down. It doesn't need to go down here but it can revisit the consequent |
| 520 | 01:39:38,550 --> 01:39:47,520 | encouragement. It can. 830 is when the news embargo lifts. That means there's going to be volatility trying to get up and down not to this magnitude because |
| 521 | 01:39:47,520 --> 01:39:58,710 | CPI is a little bit more aggressive. Think of it like nonfarm payroll, it can be a little bit more wild or more animated. So or if you want to be very |
| 522 | 01:39:59,250 --> 01:40:07,830 | conservative If your stop loss, again, you're trading for the daily range. So that means you're not trying to do your 30 contracts your 40 contracts Max |
| 523 | 01:40:08,100 --> 01:40:17,940 | position, okay? You're trying to trade the daily range where you're trying to maximize the availability of the full daily range. Your stock could be placed |
| 524 | 01:40:17,940 --> 01:40:30,480 | below here, minimum, consequent parchment. So let's give you the specifics on that. So stop loss would have to be below 4388 and a quarter, which is so close |
| 525 | 01:40:30,480 --> 01:40:42,210 | in proximity to 4387 and a quarter, which is the low end or I told you that sell side liquidity residing, which is relative equal lows here. And not down sorry. |
| 526 | 01:40:44,460 --> 01:40:54,660 | Here. And again, I mentioned the buy side here. So we've already worked at sell side. So how do you place your stop loss and feel confident, there's not going |
| 527 | 01:40:54,660 --> 01:41:07,500 | to hit it and knock you out? If you're trying to day trade. Day trading is position trading for the daily range. intraday scalping, is session trading, |
| 528 | 01:41:07,830 --> 01:41:17,700 | that means you're trading the morning session before lunch in New York. And in the pm session. There's a distinction there. When I say day trading, what I'm |
| 529 | 01:41:17,700 --> 01:41:26,820 | saying is you're trying to capitalize on the majority of the daily full run from open to close, you're trying to get that lion's portion of that move. That's not |
| 530 | 01:41:26,820 --> 01:41:38,250 | scalping. That's day trading. scalping or intraday, scalping, or session trading is where you're getting in and out, typically many times within the same hour or |
| 531 | 01:41:38,250 --> 01:41:50,760 | so or two hours. How do you trade that ICT versus when you teaching us recently, in the last year or so, when I'm doing my examples, and teaching you how to |
| 532 | 01:41:50,760 --> 01:41:59,040 | operate inside of the session, whether it be the morning session or an afternoon session, wherever when I'm trading into time I'm capitalizing the move that I |
| 533 | 01:41:59,280 --> 01:42:08,880 | foresee that would be just the lines portion of that specific session of the day, whether it be london session, New York session or New York pm session, |
| 534 | 01:42:08,910 --> 01:42:21,090 | whatever it is, I'm trading, it's relative to that specific session. If you want to capture larger runs on price, then you're going to leave your stop loss which |
| 535 | 01:42:22,200 --> 01:42:34,290 | I know some of you don't like that, it makes it terribly fearful that leaving a stoploss while the markets running all the way up here and up here, your stop |
| 536 | 01:42:34,290 --> 01:42:37,200 | loss would still be below the opening. Because |
| 537 | 01:42:38,580 --> 01:42:49,350 | you won't learn how to play stops and move stops effectively in the beginning, by trying to move them tight, or try to see what I do. Like when you see me do |
| 538 | 01:42:49,350 --> 01:43:00,300 | that. It always comes with a price. Invariably, if you trail your stop loss, it will be hit eventually it will absolutely be hit, my stops get hit. When they're |
| 539 | 01:43:00,300 --> 01:43:09,510 | trailed up, eventually, boom, he gets out. But I have taken the majority of my trade off in profit before they even happens. So when I do these examples, I'm |
| 540 | 01:43:09,510 --> 01:43:18,960 | teaching you how to graduate into that. Now I know if I want to be in a day trade, if I think the daily range is going to expand and close near the high of |
| 541 | 01:43:18,960 --> 01:43:28,140 | the day, and I'm bullish that I'm not going to get a rush to move my stop loss. It's going to stay where I initially place it. And I'm not worried about |
| 542 | 01:43:28,140 --> 01:43:36,570 | reducing its exposure because throughout the day, what am I doing I'm taking partials to pay me which is in by default, it reduces the exposure that you |
| 543 | 01:43:36,570 --> 01:43:42,960 | would have with a stoploss at or below the low end of that range, which would be going here, there's no need for it to come back down here. It's already done the |
| 544 | 01:43:42,960 --> 01:43:51,540 | damage. And traders are not going to be wanting to go in here and go long, because they seen this big wick down here and it worked here. Now they're |
| 545 | 01:43:51,540 --> 01:44:03,000 | scared. And they don't understand what you're being taught that the first run on liquidity is the tip. That's the that's the signature that you're looking for. |
| 546 | 01:44:03,000 --> 01:44:13,560 | If you want to be long. The best time to go long is after cell stops have been taken. I've said this in old videos on YouTube. Some of the videos aren't even |
| 547 | 01:44:13,560 --> 01:44:21,900 | on my YouTube channel anymore. Where are those videos? You're hiding stuff that's it's their old the production quality sucked. Cuz like the things I |
| 548 | 01:44:21,900 --> 01:44:35,520 | talked about, even when I was on baby pips, many of you let it go in one ear out the other. But it's still it's still true. So if you're looking for bias, you |
| 549 | 01:44:35,520 --> 01:44:45,660 | will learn how to do daily bias. It starts with understanding where that weekly chart is likely to go to. That's that's the first thing you have to decide, is |
| 550 | 01:44:45,660 --> 01:44:55,440 | it going to more likely go up on the weekly candle or down? Why would it be wanting to go higher or lower? That's what I've been showing you. That's what |
| 551 | 01:44:55,440 --> 01:45:03,150 | I've been putting your attention to on that weekly chart. And every time it starts to go low Oh, intraday charts on one minute, three minute and five minute |
| 552 | 01:45:03,150 --> 01:45:10,710 | candles, you see people out there trying to chase it like it's going to go lower. It's only going down to present new buying opportunities. That's all it's |
| 553 | 01:45:10,710 --> 01:45:22,050 | doing. It's going into discounts. So as a day trader, you could be still wrong, your stop loss will be below the the low end of that dealing range where |
| 554 | 01:45:22,050 --> 01:45:34,980 | sellside was already tagged. Lines portion of the move will be off here and you would have taken partials above this high here as well. You would not as a day |
| 555 | 01:45:34,980 --> 01:45:48,540 | trader, put your stop loss below that low. Why? What do I teach you about the lunch, our lunch, our macro runs on liquidity? What liquidity, the stops, that |
| 556 | 01:45:48,540 --> 01:45:57,840 | would favor the folks that have been profitable all morning long going into New York lunch, they have trailed their stop loss because they don't want to lose |
| 557 | 01:45:57,870 --> 01:46:07,260 | open profit. when really they're guaranteeing no potential further open profit, because the market will in fact, many times go down and take out the low of the |
| 558 | 01:46:07,260 --> 01:46:18,840 | day. That was fun prior to 11 or noon, New York local time. They'll take those stops, ones that occur between 12 o'clock, New York local time, and 130 New York |
| 559 | 01:46:18,840 --> 01:46:26,040 | local time. Don't believe me? Go into your charts and see if it's what's going on. I don't want you to believe anything. I'm saying I want you to go into the |
| 560 | 01:46:26,040 --> 01:46:34,710 | charts and back test and look at that stuff. Because you will see it. You won't need to hear me say it all the time. It will be in your notes. And you'll it'll |
| 561 | 01:46:34,710 --> 01:46:47,820 | be part of your repertoire. So I taught a lot of stuff today. And for someone brand new, or is it the first life journey watched by me, it probably feels |
| 562 | 01:46:47,910 --> 01:46:58,590 | disjointed it feels like it's not really organized. Well, it didn't really teach you anything that you can go out and do tomorrow. Actually, I taught you a lot |
| 563 | 01:46:58,620 --> 01:47:04,830 | that you can go into your charts right now, when I'm closing this live stream, you can go into your old price moves and start studying about the things in |
| 564 | 01:47:04,830 --> 01:47:12,270 | reference points I gave you. I outlined it live for you. I told you where the liquidity on both sides would be I told you the framework with the fair value |
| 565 | 01:47:12,270 --> 01:47:22,080 | gap. I mentioned that we would watch this one here. We're bullish. Okay, I didn't say we're topping just means that we're looking for the 930 opening. |
| 566 | 01:47:22,800 --> 01:47:32,040 | Okay, what is it going to run for? And I told you, I want to see how it behaves at this fair rate that we're down here. And we would want to see it run for the |
| 567 | 01:47:32,040 --> 01:47:39,510 | buy side, which it did the longer term draw 4428 I think the first one was. |
| 568 | 01:47:57,030 --> 01:48:12,600 | Okay, so that's Kasko encouragement of the old weekly, city. So have that in your charts 4420. And treat that going forward into the rest of the week. And |
| 569 | 01:48:12,600 --> 01:48:20,430 | study how we deliver if at all, it may not get to get up there this week, doesn't have to do it this week. But I'm looking forward to graduate towards |
| 570 | 01:48:21,600 --> 01:48:31,650 | those levels of outlined in the weekly chart, nothing says that we are making a high or that we've topped okay. I think that's going to be sufficient for today. |
| 571 | 01:48:33,840 --> 01:48:42,600 | Hopefully you learn something, hopefully I'll give you some homework to go into your charts and start analyzing, seeing where things are manifesting. And build |
| 572 | 01:48:42,600 --> 01:48:50,310 | up that experience with your journal, the more experience that you gain. In studying all moves, the better you're going to be. Because your brain is going |
| 573 | 01:48:50,310 --> 01:48:58,590 | to retain that as framework. And when you start watching price real time tape reading, where you're not pressing a demo entry, you're not trading with a live |
| 574 | 01:48:58,590 --> 01:49:07,650 | account. You're just watching price. And observing what it's doing. That is a critical part of learning how to do this, whether you learn how to trade through |
| 575 | 01:49:07,650 --> 01:49:20,460 | me or anyone else. I promise you if you put more time into that you will be more equipped, better equipped to trade and try to get these funded account |
| 576 | 01:49:20,460 --> 01:49:27,840 | challenges if you want to do from the accounts, or trade with your lifelines. And you'll know you won't need me I'll never tell you by your it's time for you |
| 577 | 01:49:27,840 --> 01:49:36,720 | to start trading with real money. You'll know because you'll be bored by the results you'll see yourself doing all the time. You won't be emotional about it. |
| 578 | 01:49:37,170 --> 01:49:46,920 | And when you get to that point in your learning, that is my opinion. For you decide whether or not you want to get in and start risking real money because |
| 579 | 01:49:46,920 --> 01:49:55,980 | you're not influenced by the money or swayed by the periodic times where you do it wrong. You're doing it right more times and you're doing it wrong. So |
| 580 | 01:49:55,980 --> 01:50:04,470 | therefore the results show that there is a probability of sustained price marketability if you stick to that same approach going forward so if we found |
| 581 | 01:50:04,470 --> 01:50:08,100 | this one insightful today folks and taught it next time be safe |