ICT YT - 2023-06-09 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Market Review and When Wrong Is Still Right
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-06-14 09:31
Outline
00:16 - Introduction of the video.
- Weekly chart of the dollar index.
- The dollar index is our weekly chart.
02:58 - Daily chart of a weekly breaker.
- Breaking down the daily chart.
- The weekly mean threshold of bearish order block.
04:54 - Hold on to a bullish bias for dollar.
- Holding a bullish bias for dollar and euro.
- Teaching how to manage yourself.
07:07 - The hourly chart of the Eurodollar chart.
- Hourly chart and hourly chart.
- Daily chart and weekly chart analysis.
09:52 - Futures and forex.
- Forecasting, not the ironclad gospel.
- Expectation analysis and the mechanics of trading.
- No reason to be upset or upset.
- No setup to set up a short trade.
15:47 - There’s no losing trade.
- No losing trade, no missed opportunity for a short.
- No short that failed. No short that manifests itself. No clear expectation.
19:00 - Running up into a kill zone.
- Nasdaq runs up and down the hourly chart.
- E-mini s and p daily chart.
21:31 - The hourly chart of the market.
- The 24 minute and 5 second mark of Wednesday's commentary.
- How to pick the wick right below the weekly gap below.
24:42 - How to trade the silver bullet.
- The silver bullet trade for thursday's trading.
- The five minute chart.
27:17 - Watch me do a trade on twitter.
- How to use a two-minute chart.
- How the algorithm works.
- Trading the 40 to 90 point 50 level.
- Trading over $10,000 in one trade.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:16,890 --> 00:00:25,050 | ICT: So I got tied up yesterday obviously, wasn't able to get on YouTube with anything but I did an execution shared it on Twitter, the link for that trade |
| 2 | 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:35,070 | example will be in the comment section of this video. Alright, so let's go briefly through, I don't want to spend too much time on this one because I have |
| 3 | 00:00:35,070 --> 00:00:46,260 | to hit the road. So Dollar Index is our weekly chart. Obviously, I mentioned in the commentary on Wednesday, that unless we take out that low in trade into this |
| 4 | 00:00:46,860 --> 00:00:57,150 | inefficiency one more time, I was going to hold on to a bullish bias for dollar and bearish bias for Euro trying not to pick tops and bottoms on a higher Time |
| 5 | 00:00:57,150 --> 00:01:08,340 | Frame chart. So you can see the market did in fact, aggressively move towards that low. No problem. I stated very plainly in Wednesday's video that I'm not |
| 6 | 00:01:08,340 --> 00:01:18,690 | trading Forex, I'm not interested but gun to my head, I always try to sit down and share with the viewers and my students, what my opinion is on the market at |
| 7 | 00:01:18,690 --> 00:01:30,210 | the very moment that the charts are being shared with you. Okay. It's a wonderful illustration of seeing me outline something from an opinion position. |
| 8 | 00:01:30,930 --> 00:01:40,560 | And admitting upfront, I wasn't going to be doing anything with the information regardless anyway. But I want to kind of put some tent posts down so that way |
| 9 | 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:53,550 | you can get comfortable warm up to the idea of not having to be right. Okay. Usually, the sceptics I mean, skeptics of me and my work, they'll say what looks |
| 10 | 00:01:53,550 --> 00:02:02,790 | he he said that and it didn't do that, look at that, we're gonna kind of like, make sure you understand in the proper context, because I do lots of video work. |
| 11 | 00:02:03,060 --> 00:02:13,080 | I do lots of audio clips and things that people can listen to on Twitter, and on this YouTube channel. And it's very easy to take something I say, out of |
| 12 | 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:22,110 | context, and make an idea, an argument about a set up strongly in arguments. And I'm not here to try to make myself look like I'm always right. In fact, I was |
| 13 | 00:02:22,620 --> 00:02:31,290 | kind of hoping that the dollar index, and the Euro dollar would do something contrary. So that way, it sets the precedents going forward, that you don't have |
| 14 | 00:02:31,290 --> 00:02:43,170 | to be perfect. And you can be right, sometimes, but still be profitable, you can be incorrect, sometimes and still be profitable. So that means being profitable |
| 15 | 00:02:43,170 --> 00:02:52,770 | when you're wrong. And I'm going to kind of teach that as I go through this. So the dollar index on Wednesday, I mentioned that I would hold on to a bullish |
| 16 | 00:02:52,770 --> 00:03:01,110 | stance on dollar, unless we take out that low and trade into this inefficiency. Now if we trade down below it and come back up, I would expect it to be treated |
| 17 | 00:03:01,110 --> 00:03:13,710 | as resistance. And then that would set the stage for a run into these lows. But I have to see if we'll do that obviously, at the time of this recording. It's |
| 18 | 00:03:14,070 --> 00:03:27,060 | around 11 o'clock or so in my local area here on the East Coast of the US and on Friday. So this is representing not Friday's data, but this is Thursdays. So I |
| 19 | 00:03:27,060 --> 00:03:39,810 | took that screenshot at this time on Thursday. And the daily chart will be representing that as well. So all of this is Thursdays time it says presentation |
| 20 | 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:48,930 | will encapsulate Thursday, and then partial Friday's action, and I have to hit the road so I won't be able to do anything as a final review. So we have a |
| 21 | 00:03:48,930 --> 00:03:57,690 | breaker here on the daily chart we have high low higher high down close came down here with the lowest close. Notice I'm not using this one. I'm using the |
| 22 | 00:03:57,690 --> 00:04:08,640 | lowest close the volume, the narrative The storyline is inside the bodies, the wicks do the damage. So you take that range, expand it to the right. And that |
| 23 | 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:23,220 | would be your breaker. And I'm calling this a weekly breaker. But it's inside of this range here. So I'm zeroing in on the daily chart to get inside of what this |
| 24 | 00:04:23,220 --> 00:04:34,080 | would be over the course of more than one week obviously. But I'm looking at that daily candle right there. So from a weekly perspective, but not leaning on |
| 25 | 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:42,060 | the weekly chart, but that specific candle right there is what I'm aiming at and drawing it out in time. And I mentioned how we worked inside these levels here |
| 26 | 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:51,480 | the weekly mean threshold of bearish order block that's this level here. One a forfeit before. I mentioned the daily order block, opening price here. So it was |
| 27 | 00:04:51,480 --> 00:05:02,940 | lots of work on that level. And then ultimately, we didn't affect trade down here. I want you to think about If you're hanging on every word and syllable |
| 28 | 00:05:02,940 --> 00:05:13,020 | that I say, where I stated that I'm going to hold on to a bullish bias for dollar, unless it takes out that low. Now what I'm suggesting, if you listen to |
| 29 | 00:05:13,020 --> 00:05:24,300 | that Wednesday analysis, I'm saying that was not interested in taking any trades, I'm sitting still, I'm neutral, I made a very clear statement that I am |
| 30 | 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:35,520 | neutral. That means I'm taking new trades, I'm going to wait and see what the market tells me. So it was kind of like teaching. Whenever I give something out |
| 31 | 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:42,990 | in terms of analysis, or I call move, and it happens, there's a group of individuals that follow me there immediately responding with Okay, now, what's |
| 32 | 00:05:42,990 --> 00:05:51,750 | it going to do now? What's next? Because they want to see the next manager trick. And I'm trying to settle those expectations down and all of you even for |
| 33 | 00:05:51,750 --> 00:05:57,630 | the folks that don't reach out to me, but you're probably thinking it, okay, you got that, right. So now, what's he going to call next. So it's not that I'm |
| 34 | 00:05:57,630 --> 00:06:06,150 | trying to entertain you. I'm not trying to dazzle you with being correct. I'm trying to teach you how to manage yourself, because come November, when I'm no |
| 35 | 00:06:06,150 --> 00:06:15,960 | longer doing this with you all. It will be up to you to stick to what you've understood and learned as rule based ideas. So what I was saying is, I'm |
| 36 | 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:28,170 | interested in staying bullish on dollar bearish on Eurodollar. As long as we stay above this low, if I'm neutral, I'm looking to take new trades. But if it |
| 37 | 00:06:28,170 --> 00:06:38,280 | does trade down here, then that opens the door for me potentially conceding and saying, Okay, this is probably much more meaningful. And if we come down below |
| 38 | 00:06:38,280 --> 00:06:51,300 | this inefficiency, I'm going to see it to be treated as resistance, and then any subsequent premium array that would set up a later like a fear of a gap, |
| 39 | 00:06:51,300 --> 00:07:01,590 | something that effect or bearish order block, maybe a breaker, that could act as some premium array to send us into this area here. So it's kind of like my inner |
| 40 | 00:07:01,590 --> 00:07:08,610 | musing The thing I'm considering as a potential future setup. But I can't do anything now because we're going into Friday. And I won't be in front of the |
| 41 | 00:07:08,610 --> 00:07:23,070 | charts on Monday, either. So I'll be back in the swing of things next Tuesday. So here is the hourly chart here, we get down. On Thursday, we saw trading begin |
| 42 | 00:07:23,100 --> 00:07:35,820 | again. And we ran quickly down into that low in to this low here. So clearing up all the sell side resting here, we aimed into that. And now we have in my mind |
| 43 | 00:07:35,850 --> 00:07:46,500 | potentially shifted, bearish. Now I'm not convinced entirely, I want to see more evidence on a daily chart and get below this inefficiency and treat it as |
| 44 | 00:07:46,530 --> 00:07:58,860 | resistance. Okay, so I'm waiting. I'm predicting that as if future possibility and price action, the outlook for setups, if it does that, so it's an IF THEN |
| 45 | 00:07:58,860 --> 00:08:10,410 | clause. Okay, in itself, its algorithmic, if the market will do this, then I will do that. But I'm predicting I'm not reacting, I'm predicting that it will |
| 46 | 00:08:10,410 --> 00:08:19,590 | use this inefficiency that shaped here as a potential area of resistance, and treat it as a premium array. And then look for that lower, daily relatively |
| 47 | 00:08:19,590 --> 00:08:29,790 | equal low or sell side would be residing. So it's a condition for me to allow myself to sit still and relax and not rush to get into another new trade idea, |
| 48 | 00:08:30,780 --> 00:08:41,010 | which many of you need that skill set. Alright, Eurodollar. And again, this is representing where we were at the time on Thursday at this screenshot. So we |
| 49 | 00:08:41,010 --> 00:08:53,400 | worked inside this order block here, and it's a weekly chart. So there really isn't any inefficiency in this until we get up to here. So, if we see that |
| 50 | 00:08:53,400 --> 00:09:03,180 | further breakdown on dollar, this will be the point of interest, I would have on a longer term for your dollar unless this loan is taken out. If your takes this |
| 51 | 00:09:03,180 --> 00:09:13,830 | low out then we will resume looking for these loans to be taken. Okay. So, based on what we saw on Dollar Index, on Wednesdays analysis, I said that if we saw |
| 52 | 00:09:13,830 --> 00:09:24,900 | that low taken out on the daily for dollar index, then I would push my near term bullishness on dollar to the backburner waiting for more developing conditions |
| 53 | 00:09:24,900 --> 00:09:35,820 | potentially setting up shorting ideas for dollar which would allow for upside on Euro. Now let's just say for sake of argument, say it trades higher and we get |
| 54 | 00:09:35,820 --> 00:09:47,760 | above this entry to support that could be the catalyst that centers up into this volume imbalance that never got traded to. Okay, so we can see 123 drives |
| 55 | 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:56,760 | pattern that would eventually much later in the year, become a factor. Okay, so I'm just giving you some forecasting. I'm not stating that that's the ironclad |
| 56 | 00:09:56,760 --> 00:10:03,210 | gospel that's going to actually unfold is this these are some of the ideas on how Look at this chart that's like think it's this a weekly chart. So it takes |
| 57 | 00:10:03,210 --> 00:10:04,530 | some time for those things to develop. |
| 58 | 00:10:06,690 --> 00:10:14,730 | Alright, here is the daily chart of Euro. And we were meandering around in here, I said, I would stick with the idea that we'll see if it wants to go lower and |
| 59 | 00:10:14,730 --> 00:10:24,480 | have higher dollar. And the higher dollar did not manifest itself. And I said, I wasn't sure if we go lower. If it needs to take out this high first, I didn't |
| 60 | 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:34,800 | know. So I was neutral, I was waiting for more information. It did, in fact, do that. Now. This is where critics, people that don't agree with what I'm seeing |
| 61 | 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:43,920 | or just simply don't like the fact that you are like listening to it and trading and finding profitability in it. They'll say they'll cherry pick the things I |
| 62 | 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:50,310 | say, and take them out of context and say, well, he said it was going to do this. And it didn't do that. What I stated was I was neutral on Wednesday, it |
| 63 | 00:10:50,310 --> 00:10:58,410 | means they're not taking any trades. In Forex, I'm not using the dollar to trade, I don't trade the dollar, I use it as a barometer for risk on risk off. |
| 64 | 00:10:59,670 --> 00:11:09,810 | But index futures can sometimes fly in the face of what the dollar index is doing. So I'm a little bit more flexible when it comes to index trading. But in |
| 65 | 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:23,040 | forex, it's almost ironclad. Okay, if the dollar is going to decline harshly, that decline, the dollar would open the doors for a rally in Euro, new cable |
| 66 | 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:33,660 | POUND DOLLAR Aussie dollar, those types of currencies. So we didn't see. In fact, the run up in here took out that high. But we're still inside this order |
| 67 | 00:11:33,660 --> 00:11:46,470 | block. So at some saying I'm reserving my verdict on what this is going to do until we get into trading. So when I get back from a road trip here on the |
| 68 | 00:11:46,470 --> 00:11:56,790 | weekend, I'll see how we close on Mondays trading and then I'll give some kind of commentary probably on Monday evening on the YouTube channel. Alright, so |
| 69 | 00:11:56,790 --> 00:12:07,320 | here is where we take the context and apply it to the real mechanics of trading. There's nothing wrong with having an expectation analysis like before you sit |
| 70 | 00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:14,580 | down go to bed, you look at the charts and you think okay, well this looks like it may do this or that. So you're predicting you're doing your analysis, you're |
| 71 | 00:12:14,580 --> 00:12:24,630 | looking for a setup or a condition in the marketplace. If it meets that condition, then you're assume a trade position. Okay, or incur risk. When I |
| 72 | 00:12:24,630 --> 00:12:30,660 | stated on Wednesday that I was neutral it means that I have no interest in taking the trade and even if I didn't say that let's just take that out of the |
| 73 | 00:12:30,660 --> 00:12:42,840 | expression and say that it was you or I'll just stay on the hot seat ICT said that he wanted to see your dog go lower. Okay, take out the the truth and the |
| 74 | 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:53,940 | fact that I said I wasn't doing anything with it. If I'm stating that I want to see the Eurodollar or any market to set up a situation where we can be going |
| 75 | 00:12:54,150 --> 00:13:04,680 | short on it if the market doesn't present the conditions for that short to manifest itself there is no reason to be upset there's no reason to point |
| 76 | 00:13:04,680 --> 00:13:15,990 | fingers and say Haha, you got it wrong or me haha iced tea got it wrong. getting it wrong would be getting into a trade that would be a failure and stopped it |
| 77 | 00:13:15,990 --> 00:13:26,970 | with a loss okay. There is no there is no setup in here. That gives the expectation with time set means the time of the day that we will be taking a |
| 78 | 00:13:26,970 --> 00:13:36,630 | trade which would be what your Eurodollar can be traded in the London Open. It can be traded in the New York open and or loan close. There it is that's the |
| 79 | 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:49,890 | that's the times I'd be interested in even conferring with Eurodollar we had these relative equal lows here that I was trying to aim for. Did this market |
| 80 | 00:13:49,890 --> 00:13:59,130 | show any displacement lower after Wednesday's commentary? Did it displace lower create a fair value get the tree back up into Indigo shore for that be honest |
| 81 | 00:13:59,130 --> 00:14:08,910 | now did it form no don't hand did was Rory up out of that came back down found some support inside of this imbalance which I'm sleeping at the time I'm not |
| 82 | 00:14:08,910 --> 00:14:19,290 | watching it. And it rallies up attacks this Hi me mean threshold of the 60 Minute fair value gap over here it consolidates around that then expands up and |
| 83 | 00:14:19,290 --> 00:14:34,440 | attacks the buy side here. So profitable in the sense that there was no monetary loss, but wrong. Wrong and expectation and no ego bruise no pride harmed because |
| 84 | 00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:46,080 | there was no setup that failed. No setup manifested itself. So that's what generally the skeptics do outside of our community. They'll point fingers and |
| 85 | 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:55,440 | say, ICT said this and it didn't do that hoping because in your ignorance and very limited understanding of what it is I'm teaching. You'll see that and say |
| 86 | 00:14:55,440 --> 00:15:03,900 | oh yeah, you know, it doesn't work or he doesn't know how to trade or he can't read price or he doesn't Don't do anything, right? It's someone that is trying |
| 87 | 00:15:03,900 --> 00:15:16,560 | to capitalize on the viewing section of our audience that doesn't know enough to know better. Okay, so there is no set up in here to set up a displacement, trade |
| 88 | 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:24,000 | back up into a fair value gap, and then run the liquidity here, here and potentially earn this low. But I didn't, I didn't call that low, I called this |
| 89 | 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:32,100 | area of interest rate below that low here. At the time on Wednesdays commentary, this little logo was just inside this area with the mm data had on the chart. |
| 90 | 00:15:32,490 --> 00:15:43,590 | Okay, so it didn't manifest any kind of losing trade. What we want to see form that gives us the framework for the trade has to be there in price, if it |
| 91 | 00:15:43,590 --> 00:15:54,120 | doesn't make manifest or make itself present in price action. There's nothing to do. There was no losing trade, there was no missed opportunity for a short |
| 92 | 00:15:54,150 --> 00:16:02,250 | because it just simply didn't manifest it went the other direction, no problem, you're going to have that, okay, you're going to have that occur with you in |
| 93 | 00:16:02,250 --> 00:16:09,330 | your own analysis, your own trading. And you can sit around and beat yourself up and say, Oh, I should have did this, I should have did that. Or you can say, |
| 94 | 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:19,020 | Okay, well, I'm glad that my system, my method, my conceptual ideas about how I'm reading an engaging price action kept me from taking a loss, even though it |
| 95 | 00:16:19,020 --> 00:16:30,120 | didn't give me the opportunity I wanted to sue and participate in, I was not able to incur a loss. And there's no ego harm, there's no pride there. It's |
| 96 | 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:38,220 | flexibility, you have to be flexible, as an analyst, the market is going to do certain things sometimes that you just don't anticipate, and you're going to get |
| 97 | 00:16:38,220 --> 00:16:48,720 | that part of it wrong. But the beauty is of not fearing that, because if you understand what I'm teaching you, my concepts, my setups, when they form, their |
| 98 | 00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:57,810 | actionable, but if they're not presenting the framework, then chances are, the likelihood of you having a loss is reduced. Whereas if you just go out there and |
| 99 | 00:16:57,810 --> 00:17:05,730 | trade on indicators, or if you trade on some willy nilly idea, or some blackbox idea where it just constantly keeps throwing ideas that it's a bias. And so it's |
| 100 | 00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:15,780 | from my perspective, that's complete randomness, and you're going to be more prone to being victimized through that randomness. Whereas we rely on price |
| 101 | 00:17:15,780 --> 00:17:24,630 | action to show us something that worked with and at the time that Wednesday analysis and commentary. We didn't see any displacement lower afterwards. So |
| 102 | 00:17:24,630 --> 00:17:32,550 | there's nothing to engage here. There was no nurse, no short, that failed. There's no short that manifests itself. So that way you understand the proper |
| 103 | 00:17:32,550 --> 00:17:42,270 | context. It's not me trying to save face and look smart and say Ha, you know, I got it wrong. So let me get up here and pretend to give you an A narrative. So |
| 104 | 00:17:42,270 --> 00:17:50,100 | you don't pay attention to it. No, I want you to pay attention to the fact that I called that to go lower into these levels of a gun to my head, I've had to |
| 105 | 00:17:50,100 --> 00:17:59,130 | share my opinion, is easy for someone to sit on the sidelines, say he says buy and sell. And when one works, he comes back and said, sometimes there isn't a |
| 106 | 00:17:59,130 --> 00:18:08,430 | very clear expectation from the time I'm sitting in from the charts and talking to you. And I made that very plain when I said I was neutral, but gun to my |
| 107 | 00:18:08,430 --> 00:18:16,890 | head. That means I have to give you my opinion, right then in there. I would prefer to see the market run these lows this low and maybe get in this area |
| 108 | 00:18:16,890 --> 00:18:26,340 | here. Okay, that's wonderful. But did it give us anything to act on? No. So there's no reason to be upset about it. There's no reason to point fingers and |
| 109 | 00:18:26,340 --> 00:18:36,600 | say the concepts don't work or I can't trade or it's a scam. Okay? It just means that you are learning how to navigate navigating price like this is what you're |
| 110 | 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:44,520 | gonna have to do. Every other system. Every other educator, every other trader has these environments where they go in, they expect to see something they |
| 111 | 00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:55,770 | really want to see something form in price. And if it does, they will trade that they're predicting price. But that setup might not manifest for them. And they |
| 112 | 00:18:55,770 --> 00:19:05,490 | either have to adapt in reverse or do not think while I was sleeping. We're all this was going on. So it had already ran up into this area here when I woke up. |
| 113 | 00:19:06,630 --> 00:19:18,450 | So Thursday, it was like okay, well, there it is. I mean, so it's already moved. I'm not ashamed of that. My focus was in the has been on index futures. So a 15 |
| 114 | 00:19:18,450 --> 00:19:29,340 | minute time frame, you can see here, that gap on the hourly chart, and we kick it back up into it before we see that and it's this right here. Okay, that boss |
| 115 | 00:19:29,340 --> 00:19:40,080 | said unbalanced. Efficiency is a fair value gap. The market trades back down into here and into that shaded area which is a fair value gap in itself. And |
| 116 | 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:48,510 | we'll look at now the 15 minute time frame. You can see it traded down into it here. That's the london session. That's an open kill zone. So there's a trade |
| 117 | 00:19:48,510 --> 00:19:55,560 | it's a Judas swing and it rallies up. Admittedly, if I had saw this like this prior to London |
| 118 | 00:19:56,940 --> 00:20:03,720 | I still wouldn't trade because I'm not trying to trade Forex right now. But I would have anticipated our run into this area and how we treated at the order |
| 119 | 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:11,910 | block here. That would have been, in my mind much more impactful. So we have it down close care candle there, we rallied above it and traded down into that mean |
| 120 | 00:20:11,910 --> 00:20:19,530 | threshold of this down close candle that you're seeing here, that right there, that's a trade I would have taken, I would have taken that. But the amount of |
| 121 | 00:20:19,530 --> 00:20:27,240 | time I sat and looked at the charts, had already moved too much. And I'm not interested. But we have an immediate rebalance there. And we have an immediate |
| 122 | 00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:35,130 | rebalance there. So when you see those, those are signatures that tell you that the market is going to want to quickly get to some level of liquidity or |
| 123 | 00:20:35,130 --> 00:20:46,110 | inefficiency. And the old high on our chart was here, so it drove up in the debt rather handsomely. Alright, E Mini s&p, or weekly chart and see we didn't affect |
| 124 | 00:20:46,140 --> 00:20:57,660 | trade higher on that weekly gap. And by side resides here. And outside that we have this volume imbalance as well. NASDAQ showed you on Wednesday, I believe my |
| 125 | 00:20:57,660 --> 00:21:06,870 | memory serves me correct. NASDAQ has already traded up into its secondary volume, the balance but the s&p has yet to even take us high out, let alone get |
| 126 | 00:21:06,870 --> 00:21:19,860 | up into here. So s&p Unless it completely crashes, we're going to maintain an expectation that we're going to look for this high to be traded up into an on E |
| 127 | 00:21:19,860 --> 00:21:27,360 | Mini s&p daily chart here, you can see that we had this basket of bounces on an efficiency, we traded down into that I mentioned that it was likely to do |
| 128 | 00:21:27,360 --> 00:21:36,060 | something to this effect where we would trade down and then run higher. And we did in fact, take out those relative equal highs. Let's drop into a hourly |
| 129 | 00:21:36,060 --> 00:21:48,480 | chart. And you'll remember this I, at the time of this recording, I sent out a tweet on my Twitter account, taking you to a YouTube link that takes you to the |
| 130 | 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:59,400 | 24 Minute and five second mark of Wednesday's commentary, where I go into this hourly chart. And I say, Okay, I'm taking your attention into this wick right |
| 131 | 00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:06,180 | here in the midpoint of that, which is consequent encouragement. And I say let's play devil's advocate. Let's assume for the moment that the s&p wants to go |
| 132 | 00:22:06,180 --> 00:22:16,860 | higher, if you hold that bias, remember, I was saying on Wednesday, I was neutral. So I was giving you an actionable plan of studies that we can go |
| 133 | 00:22:16,860 --> 00:22:23,550 | forward, okay. Not to say, well, you know, the market could go up here or the market go down here. Because if you just listen to Wednesday's video, and |
| 134 | 00:22:23,550 --> 00:22:32,130 | commentary, and you walk away thinking that you didn't pay attention, you have to listen to what I'm suggesting to you. Because if you are following this |
| 135 | 00:22:32,130 --> 00:22:44,820 | market, and your bias or your belief is that it's going to go higher, I told you how to engage that. And it was at that 24 minute and five second time in it's |
| 136 | 00:22:44,820 --> 00:22:53,760 | this wicker here, midpoint of that, folks, this does not appear in textbooks, okay? It will now because everybody's gonna start writing books on Amazon and |
| 137 | 00:22:53,760 --> 00:23:00,420 | everything else. And it's going to be in mentorship now because you, you watched it pan out. But there's still some things that you need, and that you just can |
| 138 | 00:23:00,420 --> 00:23:09,000 | look at it real quick. The question is going to be how to pick that wick, right? Well, below this consolidation, this was that weekly gap below, and this is the |
| 139 | 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:15,660 | weekly gap high. And I mentioned that there was buyside relative equal highs. There's BizStats wrestling right up here. And I stated that I don't like that |
| 140 | 00:23:15,690 --> 00:23:25,320 | retail sees that as resistance. I never liked that. And that's what I said in Wednesday's commentary. I stated that smooth edges like to be made jagged. Okay, |
| 141 | 00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:32,670 | it's an expression of using the number of years and this smooth area will be made jagged. And we seen that today on Friday. This is where I've dropped a |
| 142 | 00:23:32,670 --> 00:23:42,750 | screenshot at 1025. This morning, Friday. And I mentioned that let's assume for a moment and play devil's advocate that the market does, in fact want to go |
| 143 | 00:23:42,750 --> 00:23:54,510 | higher. It can drop down into this wick. That's this one here. Notice there is no inefficiency there. There's no old high no support resistance, none of that |
| 144 | 00:23:54,510 --> 00:24:04,290 | garbage. Okay, it's algorithmic, the markets gonna return right back to that price point, it means something to the algorithm. It's a point of reference. So |
| 145 | 00:24:04,290 --> 00:24:14,610 | the market drops down, clearing out relative equal lows. How far can it go down below those relative equal lows, Michael, to that wick is exactly what I said at |
| 146 | 00:24:14,610 --> 00:24:23,940 | the 24 minute and five second, in Wednesday's analysis. It could go down here and then run higher to take up the buy side. And don't go back and listen to |
| 147 | 00:24:23,940 --> 00:24:32,310 | that video and tell me if I did not in fact, say that if I lied, and I didn't say that in the video. Call me out on Twitter. Everybody can see it. You know, I |
| 148 | 00:24:32,310 --> 00:24:40,140 | don't let comments appear on YouTube. Because people advertise new crypto stuff and make it look like I'm doing that and I'm not doing anything with crypto, and |
| 149 | 00:24:40,140 --> 00:24:53,940 | I'm not selling you anything. I said this. This is what analysis in 30 years experience and authorship in these concepts provide for you. That right there, |
| 150 | 00:24:54,030 --> 00:25:06,120 | it drops down just enough for the spread to engage that price. It rallies Short Term high taken drops back down in rips higher institutional order flow entry |
| 151 | 00:25:06,120 --> 00:25:18,690 | drill into this vise of analysis on efficiency. Rallies fall short of this high in this high. Any retracement here is just going to set up a run to take up the |
| 152 | 00:25:18,690 --> 00:25:28,140 | buy side. Any drop here is going to further increase the likelihood that retail traders are going to see that as strong resistance. So they will want to go |
| 153 | 00:25:28,140 --> 00:25:35,160 | short here if they haven't already went short there, where they can place their stop loss, where they believe it's protected in four to five behind this real |
| 154 | 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:43,470 | strong quote unquote resistance. While we saw how that worked, right on through it, like it's nothing, this is a knife, hot knife through butter. So we're just |
| 155 | 00:25:43,470 --> 00:25:55,860 | knocking on heaven's door and hallelujah. And here is the five minute chart, you're gonna see a link in the comment section. Where are you watch me engage go |
| 156 | 00:25:55,860 --> 00:26:09,210 | in right into the market and trade the silver bullet trade for Thursday's trading. There's a level 1490 and a half that I had in mind, I want to see it |
| 157 | 00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:19,950 | trade up into. But I want to use my limit order just below that. And there's inefficiency right there that I felt that was going to be impactful. So you'll |
| 158 | 00:26:19,950 --> 00:26:28,890 | see me wait for short term high to form. And then when that short term highs ran out, I teach this to my students, which is running down equity when you're |
| 159 | 00:26:28,890 --> 00:26:39,270 | approaching targets. And or get three quarters of the way to a profit objective. And you're bullish anytime you make a short term high. And you run above that |
| 160 | 00:26:39,270 --> 00:26:46,770 | short term high, you want to be taking partials there, I don't care what Tom Dick or Harry says in their dollar menu mentorships partials always paid 100% of |
| 161 | 00:26:46,770 --> 00:26:56,550 | time, there's never been a partial profit taken that did not pay. It always pays. So while you're learning, I teach that skill set to traders that are |
| 162 | 00:26:56,550 --> 00:27:06,270 | learning how to find consistency. And to encourage them to keep studying. If you go in with I'm only going to enter on this trade here. But my stop loss here. |
| 163 | 00:27:06,450 --> 00:27:13,950 | And I can only get out if it goes to my target, you're going to be very frustrated learning how to trade like that. So I teach a graduated understanding |
| 164 | 00:27:13,980 --> 00:27:23,250 | with liquidity and trade management that works. It works folks. And you see me doing it many times in my trade executions when it was with Forex, you watch me |
| 165 | 00:27:23,250 --> 00:27:30,870 | do it. Now that I'm doing index futures. You see it happening there. And when you click that link in the comment section, it'll take you to a link on Twitter, |
| 166 | 00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:43,020 | and you'll be able to watch me do a trade that I did on Thursday, which was working in this price range here. Alright, here is those executions. And again, |
| 167 | 00:27:43,020 --> 00:27:53,850 | you'll watch this live, I was using a two minute chart to get this imbalance right here. And you can see that up here a two minute chart. I apologize the the |
| 168 | 00:27:53,850 --> 00:28:05,370 | other day I had the late was it the labels or whatever the titles are not toggled on trading view. So you know, just if you listen to what I'm talking |
| 169 | 00:28:05,370 --> 00:28:12,510 | about in the commentary, I'm telling you what I'm looking at in terms of the market, but sometimes the timeframes are not very clear. I don't always remember |
| 170 | 00:28:12,510 --> 00:28:22,050 | to say what timeframe it is. But I'm trying to do better in that area. There's a two minute chart, the inefficiency or gap is on the two minute basis. And as the |
| 171 | 00:28:22,050 --> 00:28:33,780 | market drop down, you watch me draw this out before price drops as it slams into it going by and once it trades higher, it comes back down in what am I trading |
| 172 | 00:28:33,810 --> 00:28:46,680 | on this five contract edition, peer meeting. Ha high, low, lower low. So this is my ICD bullish breaker. If we trade above this high, which does here and here, |
| 173 | 00:28:47,730 --> 00:28:56,040 | any retracement down into this, I'm going to view that as a reason for the algorithm to reprice to it and go higher, it spins multiple times in because |
| 174 | 00:28:56,040 --> 00:29:07,080 | once twice, three times, and then finally rips. Once it creates this short term high here, and we drop down soon as we round above it, I took five contracts off |
| 175 | 00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:18,630 | about the high at 4288, which is also inside of what the hourly imbalance the old one. Okay, so some of you would say, Well, you know, that's Oh, why would |
| 176 | 00:29:18,630 --> 00:29:28,020 | you pick that one because it's an older flow. And it's in close proximity to that 40 To 90 point 50, which is the actual swing high on our chart where |
| 177 | 00:29:28,020 --> 00:29:35,520 | buyside would reside. And ultimately, I put my stop loss up here. And it came down ahead, |
| 178 | 00:29:36,179 --> 00:29:44,069 | I let the recording go so that we can see it does in fact go to where I was looking for it to trade to which was 4290. That was the level ahead on here, |
| 179 | 00:29:44,489 --> 00:29:56,099 | which would be two ticks below the 40 to 90 point 5060 minutes old Hi. So I'm looking for to trade up here. I use the 40 to 90 level and then I've had limit |
| 180 | 00:29:56,099 --> 00:30:07,169 | orders right below and to allow for the spread Allow me to get out. And ultimately, like I said, it stopped me out. So over $10,000 in one trade, which, |
| 181 | 00:30:07,739 --> 00:30:16,079 | by anybody's standards, that should be a pretty good month, let alone one trade. Somebody out there might be thinking, you know, that that would be enough for me |
| 182 | 00:30:16,079 --> 00:30:25,799 | for a couple of months to live on, independent, where you live. It's not meant to then instill a sense of your trade has to be that high to be viewed as ICT, |
| 183 | 00:30:26,039 --> 00:30:36,029 | you know, acceptable in any profitability is good. You know, that your goal, so aspiring to trading these levels, you know, a lot of you guys are out there with |
| 184 | 00:30:36,029 --> 00:30:47,009 | funded accounts, you could do this type of trade here. give it enough time, building up your, your equity, this type of trade would be rather easy to put |
| 185 | 00:30:47,009 --> 00:30:55,619 | on. And, you know, it's up to you whether or not you want to get to that stage. You don't need to do this. Well. You don't need to trade this many contracts if |
| 186 | 00:30:55,619 --> 00:31:03,959 | you just did one. And then bought one more here and pillar bit, and then got out up here the same way. Is there something wrong with that? No. It's probably |
| 187 | 00:31:03,959 --> 00:31:11,729 | better than your job paid for one day. So that's why I'm trying to encourage you to think like that. So with that, I'm going to wish you a very pleasant and safe |
| 188 | 00:31:11,759 --> 00:31:21,689 | weekend. I'll be quiet on Twitter. I'll be with my family. And we'll touch base with you all Lord willing on Monday and I'll talk to you then be safe. |