ICT YT - 2023-06-08 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Advanced Gap Theory Introduction
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-06-09 08:35
Outline
00:23 - Weekly chart of the dollar index.
- Weekly chart of the dollar index.
- Hour chart for the dollar.
03:09 - Sell side vs buy side delivery.
- Only sell side is offered on this candle.
- Weekly chart of the dollar index.
- Identifying high resistance liquidity runs.
- Understanding the difference between high resistance and low resistance liquidity.
09:05 - The daily chart of the dollar.
- Daily chart and bearish order block.
- Dollar is likely to go higher.
- The four stages of delivery, consolidation, expansion, retracement and reversal.
- The difference between high and low resistance.
13:13 - Hourly chart of the Euro Dollar.
- Hourly chart on euro dollar.
- Daily fair value gap and price action.
- The silver bullet for euro rallies, find some support.
- Daily fair value gap.
18:34 - What to expect for the dollar going forward?
- What to look for going into london and new york tomorrow.
- What to expect from dollar
- Volume imbalance on the live stream.
- Daily and weekly charts of the market.
24:11 - The midpoint of the current range.
- The midpoint of the price action.
- The higher timeframe daily chart.
26:48 - How to trade the gap levels.
- Inversion periodica and the weekly chart.
- The weekly chart and the hourly chart.
- Weekly gap and fair value gap.
- The 2022 ict mentorship model.
32:46 - The low is a fulcrum.
- How the low would be significant.
- The initial run-off of the market.
- A common gap that can be traded.
- Breaking away from a higher timeframe high.
37:23 - How to short into the market?
- The two shifts in market structure.
- How to navigate a breakaway gap.
- Two one minute candlesticks, one down and one up.
- One down close candle midpoint.
42:05 - Measuring gaps and the measuring gap.
- Fibonacci swing from high to low.
- Measuring gaps and the ict swing.
- Gaps have an heirarchy and an ideal gap.
- Understanding the advanced gap theory.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:23,550 --> 00:00:35,730 | ICT: blazing books. Welcome back. Well, I was supposed to be doing a live stream today. But I guess the powers that be that was fortunate that I couldn't do it |
| 2 | 00:00:35,730 --> 00:00:45,540 | today, OBS wouldn't connect to my YouTube channel. And I had all kinds of issues with it. So I elected to sit down and wait for the close of the day and then |
| 3 | 00:00:45,540 --> 00:00:52,680 | come back in here and do some more of a little bit of a review, but also want to teach a little bit more about institutional overflow, advanced ICT gap theory. |
| 4 | 00:00:53,970 --> 00:01:04,050 | So we're looking at the dollar index. This is a weekly chart to just keep you abreast as to where we are in that weekly range. We chopped up into the weekly |
| 5 | 00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:13,650 | bearish order block, which is this candle right here, which is the midpoint of that pierced that last week. So far, this week, we're just meandering around |
| 6 | 00:01:13,650 --> 00:01:20,040 | inside of the range of the weekly order block opening price. In that mean threshold |
| 7 | 00:01:26,010 --> 00:01:40,650 | daily chart here, you can see very shorter block, again, working at level a few times more of the last few days, we have a small little fair pay gap there. And |
| 8 | 00:01:40,650 --> 00:01:53,970 | we turned it back down into the old weekly inversion fair Vega. And again, assume for a moment that we move higher. Okay, unless we break below this low |
| 9 | 00:01:53,970 --> 00:02:08,700 | here, I'm going to stay with that narrative. And if it does, we'll be looking for by sign here. And then we have a volume imbalance there. And we have a wick. |
| 10 | 00:02:09,210 --> 00:02:15,900 | So consequent curriculum that I don't have it on here because I don't want it to mean lines. But that I have that level in mind, should we go above this high |
| 11 | 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:30,600 | midpoint of this wick and then the volume and balance. Okay. That's also the premium wick consequent encouragement on the weekly chart. Let's go back up one |
| 12 | 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:34,680 | more time. That's this one here, okay. |
| 13 | 00:02:42,569 --> 00:02:52,739 | All right, so let's move down into an hourly chart for Dollar Index. Usually I don't do this with you. But we'll go into a bit more detail here. So inside this |
| 14 | 00:02:52,739 --> 00:03:04,859 | swing low, all this price action, this is a swing on a larger daily chart, but we're looking at through the lens of an hourly chart, see this gap right here. |
| 15 | 00:03:05,519 --> 00:03:13,409 | Notice there's an absence of one over here, but look at all the back and forth price action. So we have only sell side here offered. So that means the candle |
| 16 | 00:03:13,829 --> 00:03:24,119 | went through between this candles low and his candles high it delivered on the downside. So it's sell side delivery inefficient in the form of buy side |
| 17 | 00:03:24,119 --> 00:03:38,399 | delivery, so it's offered here on this candle. Then the next candle, we open trade down, rally back up in closer here. Next candle opens, trades down stops |
| 18 | 00:03:38,519 --> 00:03:56,159 | right inside that gap low then sends it higher. This is a bounced price range. Bounced price ranges tend to either stop at their high or low or midpoint or |
| 19 | 00:03:56,189 --> 00:04:06,359 | most will be consequently cogent midpoint of the gap. We can see that happening essentially here. So this extended through and again, this is the reason why |
| 20 | 00:04:06,389 --> 00:04:14,999 | it's not supply and demand folks, we cut through candles to get to a narrative. The algorithm is going right back to this inefficiency and the fact that we |
| 21 | 00:04:14,999 --> 00:04:28,799 | traded back and forth here buy side sell side has been offered it left that range right here. If it ever comes back down into it, it's highly unlikely that |
| 22 | 00:04:28,799 --> 00:04:40,679 | we'll trade to the low of this gap again and through it so that's what makes a ICT balanced price range. We also have a imbalance here I wanted to make sure I |
| 23 | 00:04:40,679 --> 00:04:51,359 | highlighted this gap but this candles low in this candles high that would be typically the shaded area here. To not be confused I'm not drawing it the here |
| 24 | 00:04:51,749 --> 00:04:59,549 | to make up the 60 Minute fair value gap which is in the form of a biocide unbalanced helps on an efficiency. So only bites I was offered here. Sell side |
| 25 | 00:04:59,549 --> 00:05:09,089 | was offered to it there. And then quickly after hitting the bounce price range consequent encouragement, price immediately erupted to the upside, working up |
| 26 | 00:05:09,089 --> 00:05:18,509 | into this bear bag in the form of a city salt announced by some inefficiency. And notice how many times it hits that daily bearish order block here, it's |
| 27 | 00:05:18,509 --> 00:05:31,739 | worth the level here, here and here. And that mean threshold of the weekly bearish order block here at 104 54, that also has a small little bit of a |
| 28 | 00:05:32,459 --> 00:05:40,289 | inefficiency still remaining here. So we got as high as that candle here. But between these candles high, that candles low, there's a small little gap in |
| 29 | 00:05:40,289 --> 00:05:51,779 | there. So if you look at the high and the low, and the higher high here, this down, close candle, extend that through, that's a ICT bearish breaker. So you |
| 30 | 00:05:51,779 --> 00:06:05,939 | can see it being respected here, respected here, here, and even here. So it would be much more meaningful to me. If we were to break that low here, |
| 31 | 00:06:05,969 --> 00:06:15,929 | otherwise, I'm going to stick with the likelihood that dollar index will either consolidate or go higher. Either one, I could care less right now is still |
| 32 | 00:06:15,929 --> 00:06:29,939 | neutral. And I'll explain more about that as we go. Here's your dollar is its weekly chart. And all of this price action back and forth in here. Even though |
| 33 | 00:06:29,939 --> 00:06:44,519 | there's also liquidity resting below this, it's being met with high resistance. So high resistance liquidity runs, they can still deliver and go below here. But |
| 34 | 00:06:45,299 --> 00:06:56,069 | high resistance liquidity runs are very frustrating sometimes for individuals that don't know how to anticipate them, or don't know what they are. So I teach |
| 35 | 00:06:56,069 --> 00:07:05,519 | you, in my concepts to identify what a high resistance liquidity run is. So that way you can understand the distinctions between that and a low resistance |
| 36 | 00:07:05,519 --> 00:07:16,859 | liquidity run low resistance recording runs are high probability. And they are immediate gratification, this immediately run to your objectives, it's very fun |
| 37 | 00:07:16,859 --> 00:07:25,559 | to trade them. It's almost immediate feedback once you get into the trade, whereas a high resistance liquidity run is a trade is met with a lot of |
| 38 | 00:07:25,559 --> 00:07:35,759 | resistance in getting to where your objective may be. Now, because I'm calling it a high resistance, or low resistance doesn't mean that it's resistance in the |
| 39 | 00:07:35,759 --> 00:07:48,959 | sense of support or resistance. From the perspective of a retail theory, it's resistance in the form that it's very hard for it to be one way delivery. So |
| 40 | 00:07:48,959 --> 00:07:57,239 | it's gonna be a lot of consolidation, move a little bit, come back retrace much more than you're probably comfortable, and then consolidate more and then go a |
| 41 | 00:07:57,239 --> 00:08:09,209 | little bit further in the direction you were hoping for. That's high resistance. So if a new trader or a breakeven trader, someone that makes a little bit of |
| 42 | 00:08:09,209 --> 00:08:20,279 | money, then lose it. When they are met with those kinds of conditions in the marketplace, it tends to create very sporadic emotional responses in their |
| 43 | 00:08:20,279 --> 00:08:33,149 | psyche, they become agitated, they will many times get stopped out because they want to move their stop loss too aggressively, too soon. Or they're afraid to go |
| 44 | 00:08:33,149 --> 00:08:41,459 | get stopped out in the open or stop loss a little bit further. And it runs through that as well. And they regret having moved their stock to a larger stop |
| 45 | 00:08:41,459 --> 00:08:52,229 | loss. Understanding what a high resistance liquidity run is, will help you filter those types of trades out doesn't mean you can't trade them or paper |
| 46 | 00:08:52,229 --> 00:08:59,459 | trade them or tape read. It just means that you don't want to be putting a lot of emphasis on trading in news environments, but more specifically, waiting for |
| 47 | 00:08:59,459 --> 00:09:11,369 | low resistance liquidity runs. Right, here's the daily chart. And here you can see how we've hit that bearish order block. I mentioned the last time we spoke. |
| 48 | 00:09:11,969 --> 00:09:26,909 | Hit it. Now what is consolidating inside? Oh, that gap right there. Now look at all the back and forth here, up, down, up, down. So it's being met with that in |
| 49 | 00:09:26,939 --> 00:09:37,949 | the form of high resistance. Now, can this go higher with the dollar going lower? Absolutely. Can it work its way through this area here and attack the |
| 50 | 00:09:37,949 --> 00:09:50,309 | sell side below it? Absolutely. But because it's not one sided because it's not so heavy handed or because I can justify both sides of the marketplace right |
| 51 | 00:09:50,309 --> 00:10:03,449 | now. It's a neutral position for me. That means I want to only be trading when it's high probability And with low resistance liquidity run signatures, that |
| 52 | 00:10:03,449 --> 00:10:15,359 | means that the market is more likely to run quickly right to where I think it's gonna go. Either be a liquidity, or a inefficiency. So if I'm looking for lower |
| 53 | 00:10:15,359 --> 00:10:23,999 | prices in FF house being honest with you, gun to my head, I think the dollar is going to go higher. And I think eventually, your dollar will attack these loads |
| 54 | 00:10:23,999 --> 00:10:35,249 | in here. will it meet it before running out this high? That I don't know. But because I don't know that I'm sitting still with my hands in my pocket, not |
| 55 | 00:10:35,249 --> 00:10:45,749 | willing to do anything. But every time I sit down with you, I'm always going to tell you what I believe is likely to occur if I'm being forced into a corner, |
| 56 | 00:10:45,959 --> 00:10:52,169 | say okay, ICT, what is it you think is going to happen right now. And regardless of whether you're going to take a treatment, what do you think's going to |
| 57 | 00:10:52,169 --> 00:11:01,469 | happen, and that's what I do. I like giving commentary and analysis when the market is one sided, and it's in low resistance, the Quran signatures because |
| 58 | 00:11:01,859 --> 00:11:09,899 | it's very pleasing for me to share it, and then you watch it happen in your charts. Right now, we don't have that. Okay, a lot of objectives have been met |
| 59 | 00:11:09,929 --> 00:11:22,859 | recently, both in dollar and euro, and index futures. So we had to let the market consolidate in month one of my mentorship core content, my YouTube |
| 60 | 00:11:22,859 --> 00:11:36,209 | channel, I introduced the idea of the four stages of price delivery, and consolidation, expansion, retracement and reversal, those four stages of price |
| 61 | 00:11:36,209 --> 00:11:51,599 | delivery, we are in now a consolidation. So we have to wait at the simply wait. You don't want to push the envelope here and try to predict what it's going to |
| 62 | 00:11:51,599 --> 00:11:59,699 | do when it's like this, it's easy to predict where price is going to draw to when it's one sided in a low resistance liquidity run, that means it's very easy |
| 63 | 00:11:59,849 --> 00:12:10,379 | to see one side either a buy or sell and very, very difficult to justify the opposite side of the marketplace. So an example would be, let's assume that the |
| 64 | 00:12:10,379 --> 00:12:20,579 | market only had one single low swing and not not the back and forth trading range that we have in this area here. So prices spent a lot of time working in |
| 65 | 00:12:20,579 --> 00:12:24,899 | this range here. So it's going to take a real significant price move to get down below it. |
| 66 | 00:12:26,340 --> 00:12:39,000 | So if it were only a single, low and then reverse, like a V bottom type thing, then it would be very easy to assume that this would continuously move lower, |
| 67 | 00:12:39,210 --> 00:12:47,670 | and then it would be a low resistance liquidity run short. And then obviously the opposite should be seen for a long in the dollar index. But because we don't |
| 68 | 00:12:47,670 --> 00:12:57,420 | have that we have to sit and wait for more information. Otherwise, you're trading with low probability, can you make money, possibly, but it's more likely |
| 69 | 00:12:57,420 --> 00:13:06,420 | that you'll be wrong. And because I'm teaching you the distinction between high resistance and low resistance liquidity runs, if you do engage it and you lose, |
| 70 | 00:13:06,630 --> 00:13:17,520 | you'll regret having done so because I've already told you now it's lower probability. Alright, here's the hourly chart on euro dollar. So last time, we |
| 71 | 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:27,120 | sat with each other, it was a live stream earlier. And I mentioned this area here, how the market ran up hit by side traded into a short term premium |
| 72 | 00:13:27,150 --> 00:13:35,970 | relative to this high to that low. And then once you hit the buy side in that premium, fair value gap in the form of city, so it's an unbalanced bias and |
| 73 | 00:13:35,970 --> 00:13:45,690 | inefficiency. It worked lower to attack the sell side here. There was sell side liquidity here. And the market was hanging right around this area here. And |
| 74 | 00:13:45,690 --> 00:13:55,500 | we'll look at that on a 15 minute timeframe. But eventually it moved higher to the top end of that daily fair value gap, then went lower, failed to make the |
| 75 | 00:13:55,500 --> 00:14:06,060 | lower low here and then reversed higher to trade into a deeper premium. Further up in the upper portion of this 60 minute fair value gap in the form of a sell |
| 76 | 00:14:06,060 --> 00:14:20,340 | side unbalanced by some inefficiency, then back into that daily fair value gap. It's now on the 15th and timeframe. Here's that hourly fair Vega. It ran up into |
| 77 | 00:14:20,340 --> 00:14:31,560 | it here. And notice we were talking about in the live stream I said while we were hitting this area here I said if it were going to go lower, and it would be |
| 78 | 00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:46,290 | a high probability scenario for it to go lower. I would prefer to see price stay below this level here. If it was to go higher, I'm not interested in going lower |
| 79 | 00:14:47,220 --> 00:14:58,980 | basically consequent encouragement from the theory gap high in the February gap low in that shaded area here is the daily fair value gap. If we were to meet |
| 80 | 00:14:59,490 --> 00:15:09,660 | consequent encroachment and then break down and create another fair Vegas that would be viewed as a premium array, then I would look for that low in that |
| 81 | 00:15:09,660 --> 00:15:20,670 | larger sells out liquidity pool to be taken up, because if it were to go higher, or I would prefer to stay around constant encouragement, not got too high, |
| 82 | 00:15:21,030 --> 00:15:32,130 | because if it does that, all that means to me is it goes back down lower, it's likely to not go below that low. Go back and listen to a live stream, where I |
| 83 | 00:15:32,130 --> 00:15:41,550 | was talking about it in here. The reason why I'm not interested in once it gets up to hear even though it did drop, notice it dropped handsomely, from this high |
| 84 | 00:15:41,550 --> 00:15:54,180 | of the fair value gap, but didn't take out the sell side. Because we are in that neutral zone. For me as a trader where I don't want to take a trade. If we're to |
| 85 | 00:15:54,180 --> 00:16:06,840 | tape read or study it. Ideally, we want to see consequent encouragement, which is the halfway point of that gap, which is in the orange shaded hue. That should |
| 86 | 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:19,200 | be not traded back to the high end. But if it does, it starts to sell off, this is a trap. This low won't be taken in the sell side and this sell side will be |
| 87 | 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:32,130 | left intact. They run higher to take up the Asia high is the Asian kill zone. And this is the London kill zone. So the market trades down fails to go lower, |
| 88 | 00:16:33,060 --> 00:16:40,710 | runs a short term high since a shift in market structure. But it's gonna bounce outside inefficiency here, trades down constant encouragement, which is the |
| 89 | 00:16:40,710 --> 00:16:50,730 | midpoint of the gap between this candles flow in this candle is high. There's your silver bullet for Euro rallies, find some support that daily fair value |
| 90 | 00:16:50,730 --> 00:17:00,480 | gaps yards respecting that runs up consolidates in consequent encroachment, which is the midpoint of the gap high in the low consolidation expansion. |
| 91 | 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:13,740 | respects the high of it opens and runs through it takes out ages high swings all the way up into to take by side and trade into a deeper premium on that hourly |
| 92 | 00:17:13,770 --> 00:17:29,700 | fair value gap in the form of a city. This area up here that shaded in pink is this area here on the hourly. So this run from here to here is this on the 15th |
| 93 | 00:17:29,730 --> 00:17:41,610 | from that low, up to the high. Let me draw right back down into the midpoint of that fair Vega. So again, it's reaching for liquidity, I liked the idea that we |
| 94 | 00:17:41,610 --> 00:17:52,890 | did come all the way back up here to take out buy stops. To me, I think that favors it continued move lower because they left this low and they left a larger |
| 95 | 00:17:52,890 --> 00:18:01,290 | pool of liquidity. Again, I'll take you right back out to the that's this low here. So there's sell side here and there's a little bit of a gap right there. |
| 96 | 00:18:01,290 --> 00:18:09,540 | You can notice that the little TradingView icon things in the way but this candle is high and that candles low that's a vise Annabelle, so seven |
| 97 | 00:18:09,540 --> 00:18:21,420 | efficiency, and you have salsa. And you have relatively cool lows here. So we came all the way back up to take out the buy side. All of this is efficiently |
| 98 | 00:18:21,420 --> 00:18:31,320 | delivered. So if it was the trade up to the high end of that, that would have been perfect. But it left a small little portion in there and broke down. I want |
| 99 | 00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:43,110 | to see it run for the sell side here. And here. So I'm thinking 106 60 And maybe lower. That's what I'm looking for going into London to New York tomorrow. |
| 100 | 00:18:43,380 --> 00:18:50,520 | That's what I would favor at does not mean I'm trading it, it just means that that's my gun to my head. That's what I believe, based on what I'm looking at |
| 101 | 00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:58,920 | here. If I'm accurate about dollar going higher, that's what I would expect to see. Okay, so don't let the form on it. I'm just telling you what I'm seeing in |
| 102 | 00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:13,980 | price action or ES Emini, s&p, June contract, we'll be rolling over into the September contract here shortly. But for now, we're just looking at the June |
| 103 | 00:19:13,980 --> 00:19:25,620 | contract. So this gap in here is what I said we would draw up into we obviously did that, and we're looking at the weekly chart and the candlestick is |
| 104 | 00:19:25,620 --> 00:19:35,550 | represented as such here, so we hit the high of that gap. And then we've been banging around inside that, which is typical when price runs to a higher |
| 105 | 00:19:35,550 --> 00:19:47,610 | timeframe target. Lower timeframe, candlesticks and charts will move into a consolidation profile, consolidation profile after multiple markets have met |
| 106 | 00:19:48,030 --> 00:19:56,880 | their objectives. As I mentioned, with the dollar index it straight up into our premium objectives. Euros traded down into our discount objectives and ETS has |
| 107 | 00:19:56,880 --> 00:20:07,470 | traded into its premium objectives. So When that occurs, the market will tend to do what consolidating, which is why I'm saying I'm neutral. So you can see how |
| 108 | 00:20:07,470 --> 00:20:18,360 | there's a relationship between how I teach market profiles not market profile in the sense that you think it is. But profiles in the sense of like schematics, a |
| 109 | 00:20:18,360 --> 00:20:34,440 | roadmap if you will, okay. Typical behavior, or performance by price, something that looks familiar. That's generally what I'm trying to get out. And I taught |
| 110 | 00:20:34,470 --> 00:20:47,610 | in gave out specific schematics for weekly profiles, and daily profiles. So you can see what type of performance price will behave like, because the algorithm |
| 111 | 00:20:47,610 --> 00:20:57,660 | will tend to follow those types of profiles. And right now, because the market has met our objectives that we've been looking for, for a couple weeks now, it |
| 112 | 00:20:57,660 --> 00:21:05,220 | just sits still for a little while and just consolidates. It doesn't mean it's gonna reverse. It doesn't mean it's gonna explode and continue, it just means |
| 113 | 00:21:05,220 --> 00:21:15,840 | that we wait, we wait for more information. Now, what I do notice in here, and I failed to mention last time we were doing the live stream, there's a volume |
| 114 | 00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:28,230 | imbalance in here, right there between this candle as close as candles opening, and we're inside this gap here, it would be fine for it to drop down into that |
| 115 | 00:21:28,230 --> 00:21:42,270 | area there. So around 40 to 40 ish. Net still would not break the structure that would, it is going to go higher and move like it did in NASDAQ. This high here |
| 116 | 00:21:42,270 --> 00:21:52,080 | where there's buy side, that would be the next draw on upside. But short term, it may consolidate or retrace down into this area right in here. That's a volume |
| 117 | 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:59,100 | imbalance. And I don't want to have too many lines on the chart, but you want to have that on yours. In the event that we do retrace lower, it might want to draw |
| 118 | 00:21:59,100 --> 00:22:03,720 | into that area. As long as we stay |
| 119 | 00:22:05,700 --> 00:22:13,980 | above this candle is lit, why am I picking that candle. We've already worked inside these two down close candles, that's your bullish order block consecutive |
| 120 | 00:22:13,980 --> 00:22:23,460 | down closed candle. It traded down into that in repel price higher. If it was the color outside the lines of this volume imbalance, which is that white shaded |
| 121 | 00:22:23,460 --> 00:22:35,100 | area, it can trade down into consequent curtailment of this candles tail. So that right there, which is essentially the low of that volume imbalance. It can |
| 122 | 00:22:35,100 --> 00:22:44,160 | go a little bit past a little, you know somewhat but I don't want to go below there. If it trades below it not doesn't require a close that trade down below |
| 123 | 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:53,550 | that then I'd be more reluctant to anticipate that high being the next run on liquidity. Okay, so in layman's terms, I'm expecting it to consolidate inside |
| 124 | 00:22:53,550 --> 00:23:04,890 | this white shaded area allowing up to a retracement into this area here. Worst case scenario here for this candles tail, but not below that candle as well. |
| 125 | 00:23:05,100 --> 00:23:11,850 | Okay, so as long as we're remaining above that candles low right there, I'm staying with the idea that we could potentially go higher like we've seen in |
| 126 | 00:23:11,850 --> 00:23:25,350 | NASDAQ. Everything can change overnight going into tomorrow. But based on what this chart showing you right now, that's my opinion. daily chart here for ES we |
| 127 | 00:23:25,350 --> 00:23:39,000 | have a very vague gap in here. shift in market structure drops into a fair value gap rallies up in into our gap. So in the upper portion of that volume of bounce |
| 128 | 00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:46,020 | on the weekly chart, which is that white shaded area. And that's the Pacific area where there was no trading. It's worked its way up in there. And now |
| 129 | 00:23:46,020 --> 00:23:57,720 | lookouts is hanging around in there. See that? Interesting, isn't it? Watch what happens when we drop into a lower timeframe. Here's the hourly chart. This blue |
| 130 | 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:08,280 | line is the high of that weekly gap. This blue line is the low of that weekly gap. The white shaded area is the volume imbalance. I'm drawing your attention |
| 131 | 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:19,500 | to this wick right here. And it's midpoint which is consequent encouragement. So this is a discount array, because it's below market price. Let's play devil's |
| 132 | 00:24:19,500 --> 00:24:29,580 | advocate for a moment. And let's assume for the sake of discussion that the market does in fact want to go higher. It could trade down into this area here |
| 133 | 00:24:30,180 --> 00:24:43,710 | and then run for by sigh notice how you clean highs here. So that looks like perfect textbook resistance. I don't like that. I never liked that. smooth edges |
| 134 | 00:24:43,770 --> 00:24:56,370 | liked to be made jagged. Okay I have an expression I say it many times and I think this will be disrupted. Now, how and when it will occur. We have to watch |
| 135 | 00:24:56,370 --> 00:25:05,310 | and see what price does at each kill zone. Okay or specific times of the day. where we'd like to trade. So I want to see, do we respect price at this |
| 136 | 00:25:05,940 --> 00:25:15,540 | discount, constant encouragement of that wick. If it runs through it, there is a another wick right there. So this midpoint of that when you want to draw that |
| 137 | 00:25:15,540 --> 00:25:28,320 | out in time to. It's also basically these highs. Now, what I don't like about that is, I don't like it going back down to these relatively equal highs, |
| 138 | 00:25:28,470 --> 00:25:39,630 | because that's treated as what resistance term potential support, right? I don't like that. So take us back into that higher timeframe daily chart. Remember what |
| 139 | 00:25:39,630 --> 00:25:52,770 | I said about 40 to 4040 to 40 is in that volume imbalance on the daily chart. So it could trade down into in the low these highs here, if it really wants to be |
| 140 | 00:25:52,770 --> 00:26:04,560 | aggressive trade down through that all the way to the low of that volume announcement, weekly chart, which would take us into this area right here. Right |
| 141 | 00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:15,000 | there. Okay, so just be mindful, I don't have like an affinity for, like these levels here, draw that out in time. And if it comes down to it, we'll treat it |
| 142 | 00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:25,410 | as support. And I don't see that as resistance. Okay, I think this is like knocking on heaven's door. So they may need to take it down deeper, this try to |
| 143 | 00:26:25,410 --> 00:26:35,190 | sell the idea that this is resistance, and then come back up later on, and break through this here like gangbusters. This area here, I don't have a four hour |
| 144 | 00:26:35,190 --> 00:26:47,430 | chart tonight. But I added the notation that we showed this in a live stream the other day yesterday. And it's based on the four hour, Tuesday May 23 10am. |
| 145 | 00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:55,890 | Inversion periodica. So you can watch the live stream, you'll see it's it was there. And that's what we're seeing the respect of their initiative, daily fear, |
| 146 | 00:26:55,890 --> 00:27:11,220 | but you got inside of that. Right, here's the 50 minute time frame one es today. High, because that rate at the high of that volume, imbalance hooks, that's |
| 147 | 00:27:11,250 --> 00:27:25,260 | perfect. It goes right to the tick not in your textbooks, just in the book of ICT breaks lower trades to the low of the gap. This line and that line are the |
| 148 | 00:27:25,290 --> 00:27:36,480 | gap levels on our weekly chart for ES the white shaded area is the volume imbalance. This is that wick discount consequent curtailment level that I just |
| 149 | 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:46,080 | showed you before we drop down and go back up. That's this one here. Okay, so with this count, constant encouragement there, I can already hear some of the |
| 150 | 00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:55,140 | newer students. This is really complicated. Everything's complicated when you first start. So I'm thinking that we could draw down into that and how we trade |
| 151 | 00:27:55,140 --> 00:28:05,610 | to it. And if through it, all the factors I just gave you for the other hourly chart, they are to be weighed out, that's where I'm, I'm waiting to see I don't |
| 152 | 00:28:05,610 --> 00:28:15,090 | have a very clear definitive. Here's my next setup. I'm watching those levels of see how it forms market structure around them. So I'm not trying to guess I'm |
| 153 | 00:28:15,090 --> 00:28:28,200 | not trying to be predictive yet. Okay, so I'm sitting neutral, we're not reacting the price, we never react to price. But we're sitting still waiting for |
| 154 | 00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:36,540 | more information so that way we can predict the next outcome. Right now it's uncertain, but I do have the opinion if done is in my head, where I think it's |
| 155 | 00:28:36,540 --> 00:28:46,110 | going to go I think it's going to go lower first to go higher later. And if I'm in a chart, you can see here we had buyside resting above these highs here in |
| 156 | 00:28:46,110 --> 00:28:54,600 | this short term high this is your opening range due to swing so it rallies up hits the high that weekly get high and drops lower. So now there's buyside |
| 157 | 00:28:54,600 --> 00:29:05,910 | resting above that, to the left that we're here is the other relative equal high on Monday that formed so over here you can see all your hit, broke lower, drew |
| 158 | 00:29:05,910 --> 00:29:16,950 | back into current new week opening gap came back up to it and he was opening gap and then rejected traded down to the weekly gap low and then consolidated around |
| 159 | 00:29:16,950 --> 00:29:27,900 | it. Notice that this low to the high in this range here. It's essentially hugging that weekly get well so it's kind of like a equilibrium price point in |
| 160 | 00:29:27,900 --> 00:29:39,120 | this consolidation in here and I would suspect it wants to trade down into that four to 64 4240 ish level anything below 4240 then obviously we have to keep our |
| 161 | 00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:53,940 | mind on seeing that daily level I told you that I didn't want to see it go below. break below here is sell side. Okay, right below there. So all this run |
| 162 | 00:29:53,970 --> 00:30:08,970 | up. It ran for the sell side. The weekly gap Hello. In all this Aryan here, I'm going to teach you a little bit more about gaps. But for now, here is the am |
| 163 | 00:30:08,970 --> 00:30:20,490 | session ICT Silver Bullet trading up into that gap high. Swing Low is right there. So a hit our higher timeframe weekly objective. That's a key level he |
| 164 | 00:30:20,490 --> 00:30:35,010 | hits it breaks lower shift in market structure that's bearish. Small little imbalance here, this right here. That move right there. That is the 2022 ICT |
| 165 | 00:30:35,010 --> 00:30:49,590 | mentorship model. So by side taken into a premium shift in market structure, fair value gap trades up into it, there's your show go short. What do you aim |
| 166 | 00:30:49,590 --> 00:31:02,820 | for relatively equal lows and liquidity. If you want to be overzealous, you can aim for the weekly GAAP low. I personally wouldn't have. But for the sake of |
| 167 | 00:31:02,820 --> 00:31:15,060 | argument you could have. Now if you're trading the ICT silver bullet, which is the model that I've taught you for 2023, for the YouTube it to intership we have |
| 168 | 00:31:15,090 --> 00:31:25,440 | a shift in market structure and it's much more pronounced. So this swing low here is broken. We have a fear of a gap between this candles high candles low. |
| 169 | 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:39,060 | This is a city sells on unbalanced buys on an efficiency. Price returns back up there short, you'd had to endure one more time in a small amount of drawdown. |
| 170 | 00:31:39,060 --> 00:31:47,700 | And here it spends a little bit of time and then finally gives up the ghost breaks one more time below that low digs into the sell side. But notice that |
| 171 | 00:31:47,700 --> 00:31:59,250 | that low is just barely below those. You know what it's reaching for nearly opening gap there like a magnet, okay? The market drops comes back up another |
| 172 | 00:31:59,250 --> 00:31:59,910 | fair value gap. |
| 173 | 00:31:59,910 --> 00:32:10,620 | So you could have taken this one, if you didn't take that one. Or you could have traded this one short pyramid more in here. Drops down look where that low is on |
| 174 | 00:32:10,620 --> 00:32:25,620 | that candle right there. That's the new weak opening gap low bang, perfect right to the tick runs right back up in. Returning back to the old phire gap dropping |
| 175 | 00:32:26,190 --> 00:32:37,290 | aggressive small gap in here around new week opening gap trades up into it here, which is institutional order flow entry drill, which is a partial return into |
| 176 | 00:32:37,290 --> 00:32:48,240 | not complete closure that gap that candles high that candles low, just a little bit about the low and then consolidates. And tears often goes lower. And I'm |
| 177 | 00:32:48,240 --> 00:33:04,410 | going to tell you how that low would be significant. Do you take the high here and add your fib to up here and draw it down to that low. One standard deviation |
| 178 | 00:33:05,250 --> 00:33:18,810 | would be 40 to 78.75. That's a pretty handsome objective. If we treat that high to that low, this low being a fulcrum point. That means if this move from high |
| 179 | 00:33:19,110 --> 00:33:31,260 | to that low, was like a door, okay, and it swung this was the hinge of the door this high if it was allowed to swing completely all the way around, it would |
| 180 | 00:33:31,260 --> 00:33:39,330 | come right down right below that low here, it would come to that price point here. So all I'm saying is is this range from that low to high, subtracted from |
| 181 | 00:33:39,330 --> 00:33:52,860 | that low takes us right to this 40 to 78.75. That's pretty good in it. So that's a pretty good run for a silver bullet. Getting short around the 4298 level |
| 182 | 00:33:54,210 --> 00:34:15,060 | that's 1-234-567-8910 1112 1314 1516 1718 19 handles. That's a pretty good day, even if you're trading with one contract. Let's go a little bit further. Now |
| 183 | 00:34:15,060 --> 00:34:25,650 | I'll teach you advanced gap theory. We're gonna take a look at that same price swing all of this is the the initial run off, this is a Judas swing. Okay, in |
| 184 | 00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:36,390 | the first 30 minutes of trading, so at 930 opening bell, we see the price run higher, stops dead in his tracks at the weekly get high, the gap high that I |
| 185 | 00:34:36,390 --> 00:34:52,050 | told you about weeks ago. Having that level on your chart and then anticipating price reacting their swing low, it breaks lower. And that gives us this small |
| 186 | 00:34:52,050 --> 00:35:01,950 | little gap right there. This gap right there is simply a fair value gap. It's a common gap that can be traded though with the context of I taught you 2022 model |
| 187 | 00:35:02,220 --> 00:35:12,210 | by side, higher timeframe level takes by side, does it go after the short term low? Yes, it does. Did it leave a gap? Yes, it did can't trade up into it, it |
| 188 | 00:35:12,210 --> 00:35:22,680 | does go short stop above this candle time right there. If you're really scared, and you don't want to take a larger risk, put your stock right above here and |
| 189 | 00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:35,610 | treat with less less leverage. The market breaks lower. And we have this gap right here. This is a fair value gap in the form of a sippy just like this is, |
| 190 | 00:35:35,970 --> 00:35:48,810 | but this is a breakaway gap. What is it doing? It's breaking away from this important higher timeframe high inside the model of the 2022 ICT mentorship |
| 191 | 00:35:49,290 --> 00:36:00,960 | model that I taught you, and it's moving aggressive. So we have one to two times there's a shift in market structure that's bearish. This is a breakaway gap, |
| 192 | 00:36:01,290 --> 00:36:15,480 | Breakaway gaps must, it must have some context as to why price should see for instance, this is a bearish breakaway gap, it's breaking away from a level that |
| 193 | 00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:25,650 | we would already anticipate being some measure of a short, okay, some context around this level, we would expect to see some kind of respect of that level. |
| 194 | 00:36:25,950 --> 00:36:33,660 | Okay, so it's a higher time when we really get high, we've already been here on Monday repelled lower, we create a short term high prior to it here and it ran |
| 195 | 00:36:33,660 --> 00:36:44,790 | up to it there. And then it took that low out there, that the gap that in itself is the 2020 model, then it breaks again, returns back into it here with the |
| 196 | 00:36:44,820 --> 00:37:01,230 | leave relative equals. So there's your fulcrum point from low to high. You may have missed the 2020 model entry here, no problem. Return back into this gap |
| 197 | 00:37:01,230 --> 00:37:14,760 | here. Breakaway gaps tend to leave a portion of the gap unfilled. From this candles low to this candles high. They retraces all up into this level. So |
| 198 | 00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:24,450 | between these highs of these candles, and that candles low is a small portion is left open, we would expect to see that if this is going to be a gap. So you want |
| 199 | 00:37:24,450 --> 00:37:36,150 | short into it here. And you've seen Washington here your stop if you were shorting in here would be above this candle high. not fearing any return back |
| 200 | 00:37:36,150 --> 00:37:50,610 | into this. Because we have two shifts in market structure. This return in here, you're anticipating while entering the charade, you're expecting this portion to |
| 201 | 00:37:50,610 --> 00:38:02,460 | stay open. If it does, you want to see that happen anyway for your trade. But if it doesn't, it completely fills in and that's not a break weaker than it may |
| 202 | 00:38:02,460 --> 00:38:13,050 | need to come back up and tap this one more time. So if you were to get stopped out, you'd have to wait for it to hit this fair value gap. And then break one |
| 203 | 00:38:13,050 --> 00:38:21,780 | more time create another imbalance or fair Vega and then use that to go short. So what I just taught you is how you navigate if you're wrong and it doesn't |
| 204 | 00:38:21,780 --> 00:38:30,150 | become a breakaway gap. You wait for it to trade at a higher timeframe for Vega and then break lower again create another fair value gap and treat that as a |
| 205 | 00:38:30,150 --> 00:38:42,780 | potential later breakaway gap. But the context is it's running up here that get traders thinking is going higher bullish Okay, from this low up to this high in |
| 206 | 00:38:42,780 --> 00:38:49,860 | here this looks like a bull flag on guarantee at the most retail traders and when it went above that high here that validated everyone thinking that it's a |
| 207 | 00:38:49,860 --> 00:39:00,060 | bull flag that it broke lower. Now if you didn't have that quickly got high you would never understand what I'm showing you here but you've known that level for |
| 208 | 00:39:00,060 --> 00:39:12,060 | weeks it broke down and in here is a breakaway gap. It's qualified as a breakaway gap because it leaves and goes lower to another new low and leaves |
| 209 | 00:39:12,060 --> 00:39:20,460 | that portion open at that time we get real confident that that never will come back up to this level here so we can drop our spot right to that level there and |
| 210 | 00:39:20,460 --> 00:39:35,910 | let it roll then we have these two candles here. These are one minute candles so this is essentially two minutes fair Vega versus a standard typical ICT fair |
| 211 | 00:39:35,910 --> 00:39:44,760 | have a gap in the form of a city and you can see them come back and trade back to them. They're like it again a common gap common gaps can be retreated to |
| 212 | 00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:56,670 | multiple times in the reclaim them sometimes as support or resistance. And then we have this large gap here these two down close candles. That's one big fair |
| 213 | 00:39:56,670 --> 00:40:05,370 | value gap in the form of a city if we We're looking at a two minute chart. Right now it's a one minute. If you do this on your own charts, look at this area here |
| 214 | 00:40:05,370 --> 00:40:17,070 | on a two minute chart. That's one candle down. So it's only trading back up into consequent correction of the two minute range of these two specific one minute |
| 215 | 00:40:17,070 --> 00:40:28,140 | candles. So in easy language and layman's terms, from this candles low, and this candle is high, on a two minute chart, this is one down closed candle. midpoint |
| 216 | 00:40:28,140 --> 00:40:37,890 | of that is where it's trading here. That's consequently parchment. This is a fair value gap in the form of acidity cells on unbalanced bias and efficiency. |
| 217 | 00:40:39,510 --> 00:40:53,820 | And it's measuring. What's that mean? We can take this range and use it for projection. The market breaks lower. And then we have another fair value gap in |
| 218 | 00:40:53,820 --> 00:41:02,100 | the form of a city. You can look at this on a two minute chart, it'd be one down close candle. And again, essentially working into consequent encouragement. |
| 219 | 00:41:03,060 --> 00:41:14,850 | Taking by side here, and then breaking lower to a lower low below that weekly get low. Standard fair value gaps, which are common gaps. They can be reclaimed |
| 220 | 00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:24,960 | or traded back to as resistance or support my trades back up to here, look at the bodies of the candles here. That's telling you what the narrative if you're |
| 221 | 00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:37,680 | reading my gap theory, in price, if you see the signatures like this, he might tell you all the time. The body's telling you the story, the wicks do the |
| 222 | 00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:40,920 | damage. The wicks is what everybody else gets messed up with |
| 223 | 00:41:42,329 --> 00:41:54,959 | dojis and specific new types of candlestick formations, nonsense. It's all nonsense, okay. Reading price action naked with time. And looking for these |
| 224 | 00:41:54,959 --> 00:42:05,879 | types of signatures here. The open and close of these two candles here are supporting the idea that this low, but that inefficiency is being respected. And |
| 225 | 00:42:05,879 --> 00:42:23,819 | then price does work. It trades lower. Where does it trade to? Below the sell side here, but not some random level. If we take the high of that price swing in |
| 226 | 00:42:23,819 --> 00:42:38,519 | draw that Fibonacci all the way down to that candles high right there. from high to low the gap, why this gap because this is the measuring gap it's |
| 227 | 00:42:38,519 --> 00:42:50,489 | approximately half of a implied dealing range implied meaning we're looking for to go lower, but we haven't seen price go there yet. We're not reacting |
| 228 | 00:42:50,489 --> 00:43:03,239 | Remember, we're predicting price. So the high here, draw that down to that candles high right there. Right there. Okay. With that does is gives you a |
| 229 | 00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:13,709 | projection to a standard deviation of negative one. And I showed you in the livestream yesterday. So if you want to watch the video prior to this one in the |
| 230 | 00:43:14,249 --> 00:43:24,749 | ICT mentorship, 2023 playlist, go to the section where it shows the Fibonacci settings and you'll get the settings that I can share with you there. But the |
| 231 | 00:43:24,749 --> 00:43:36,209 | negative ones, their deviation comes in at 40 to 69.25. Okay, I screenshot this so that way, I had my cursor right underneath there. So that way data that you |
| 232 | 00:43:36,209 --> 00:43:48,929 | see up in the upper left hand corner here, the low comes in exactly at 40 to 69.25. Folks, that is the daily low to the tick rate there, it never went lower |
| 233 | 00:43:48,929 --> 00:44:01,679 | today, even after our session didn't go lower. So this is my ICT swing projection theory when I break the market down see gaps are just like a pdra |
| 234 | 00:44:01,679 --> 00:44:14,279 | matrix. They have any hierarchy, okay, you have a breakaway gap, you have common gaps, common gaps can be reclaimed, that means treated multiple times, measuring |
| 235 | 00:44:14,279 --> 00:44:23,159 | gaps tend to leave a portion open just like a breakaway gap. So if we're expecting it to go lower, it stands to reason that we expect it not to trade all |
| 236 | 00:44:23,159 --> 00:44:31,349 | the way up here. And if we're expecting it to be a measuring gap, guess what? We want to see it not go up there and that confirms and qualifies it as a measuring |
| 237 | 00:44:31,349 --> 00:44:39,809 | gap, then we can take the high projected down to the low of the gap if we're bearish and then get our standard deviations, but that's the invasion the |
| 238 | 00:44:39,869 --> 00:44:52,739 | negative one has to be in agreement with moving below an old area of liquidity. So that between these two things, makes us have the precision okay? It's not |
| 239 | 00:44:52,739 --> 00:45:02,669 | simply you take a fib put it over two different price swings and then you're gonna get the same math that I have. But I Understanding that gaps have an |
| 240 | 00:45:02,669 --> 00:45:14,669 | heirarchy. Okay, and this is how I qualify my gaps. Every time you watch me do a recorded trading episode where I'm going in I'm trading live data. And I'm |
| 241 | 00:45:14,669 --> 00:45:22,979 | pyramid adding and adding and pyramiding and adding and I'm taking partials off and I'm looking for a specific level and I'm using this logic here when I'm |
| 242 | 00:45:23,009 --> 00:45:29,999 | drawing out when I say I want to lead this, see this portion of the gaps they open, I want to see this portion the gaps they have an ideal if it leaves this |
| 243 | 00:45:29,999 --> 00:45:44,549 | portion open unfilled. It's this theory I'm teaching you right here, okay. Common gaps are a fair a gap that can be reclaimed, treated as support and |
| 244 | 00:45:44,549 --> 00:45:55,259 | resistance. We see that here it comes back up and bangs it and trades lower this gap here, projected through all this mess here. It's not surprising to me and |
| 245 | 00:45:55,259 --> 00:46:06,629 | folks, Sam Sidon has no idea what this is, trade up until it here the bodies of the candles, respect that candles, high rate they're perfect. Don't take my word |
| 246 | 00:46:06,629 --> 00:46:15,359 | for it, look at the data. And then trades lower and makes the very low of the day here using my swing projection theory within the context of my advanced gap |
| 247 | 00:46:15,359 --> 00:46:30,179 | theory. So hopefully you enjoyed tonight and hope you learned something else. Obviously, if this is your first time watching things with gaps or my theory on |
| 248 | 00:46:30,179 --> 00:46:38,849 | gaps in swing projections, it may feel a little bit complicated, and you have 1000 new questions. And that's wonderful. That means you're trying to learn and |
| 249 | 00:46:38,849 --> 00:46:48,029 | I'm here to teach you don't think that you can just watch this video and you understand it, I want you to go back and look at old price swings. Look at all |
| 250 | 00:46:48,029 --> 00:46:56,789 | these old price swings and start breaking down the gaps in use this heirarchy I have more to teach you that's deeper in the error because there's other gaps. |
| 251 | 00:46:56,819 --> 00:47:04,979 | I'm going to teach you that I haven't even taught my charter members yet. But that context will be taught later on. I'm going to do it real time. For now. Use |
| 252 | 00:47:04,979 --> 00:47:13,499 | this as a benchmark to go and look at your other old price swings and start measuring them out in journal them in your trading journal. Until I'll talk to |
| 253 | 00:47:13,499 --> 00:47:15,269 | you next time. Be safe |