ICT YT - 2023-05-26 - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Immediate Rebalance and Institutional Order Flow
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-05-26 16:39
Outline
00:20 - Weekly chart of the dollar index.
- The weekly chart of the dollar index.
- The daily chart on dollar nicks.
03:34 - What is a fair value gap?
- Dollar is a little bit overzealous.
- Weekly candle formation as a fair value gap.
- The importance of narrative in trading.
- Immediate rebalance is one of the strongest algorithmic delivery.
09:24 - Weekly chart of dollar and eurodollar.
- Risk-off scenario, higher dollar and lower euro.
- Weekly chart of euro dollar
- Relative equal lows and fair value gap.
- Weekly order block from the weekly chart.
12:58 - What to expect from this chart?
- What to look for in a short-term premium.
- The five minute chart.
- Midnight opening in new york time.
- New york opening low candle.
18:34 - Sell stops, not your sell stock.
- Gravitates to it like a magnet.
- How to learn institutional order flow.
20:53 - Sell side liquidity pool.
- Shift in market structure.
- The euro dollar from a one-minute chart perspective.
- Order block, breaker, low, high, low and high-extend.
- London close on.
26:12 - The lower body of the candle.
- Lower body candle trading immediately after the high.
- Daily chart and weekly chart
29:33 - Watch the video from last night.
- Mentorship 2023 mentorship playlist, live streams.
- Opening range gap on wednesday.
- Being the first one to take the prey.
- Tuesday and Wednesday opening range gaps.
34:54 - Filling in the gap.
- Looking for the top of the Tuesday opening range gap.
- Boom is gathering orders.
- The new day opening gap.
- The tuesday wednesday opening range gap and subsequent encroachment of the low in the high marionette gray shaded.
40:55 - You don’t need all this.
- 30 years of experience, tools and concepts.
- Find the setups that match your personality.
- Creating a new model every day for an entire year.
- The first time listening.
44:42 - Understanding the opening range gap.
- The silver bullet hour in the am session.
- The 2022 silver bullet model.
- The two opportunities for the silver bullet.
- The importance of journaling and back testing.
49:30 - How to be profitable in this market?
- The algorithm will refer back to the same levels every day.
- Curate templates are useful.
- Being a breakout artist, not a retail trader.
- The chasm between the two.
52:21 - High probability trade in silver bullet.
- How to read action in futures trading.
- High probability trade in ict silver bullet
- Opening range gap and new day opening gap.
- Silver bullet teaching.
57:42 - Institutional order flow and mitigation blocks.
- Institutional order flow and imbalance in the market.
- Down close candle, mitigation block.
01:00:33 - Looking at a 15 second chart.
- A shift in market structure creates a fair value gap.
- The 15 second chart.
- The 10 contract model.
- The silver bullet, the one minute range.
- Inefficiencies on the 15 second chart.
- Classic support/resistance resistance and what it means.
01:08:07 - Shorting the inefficiency of the silver bullet.
- Inefficiency is the only exposure for inefficiency.
- E mini s and p afternoon session.
- City sells on unbalanced by sudden efficiency.
- Market breaks lower and trade back into inefficiency.
01:11:38 - Shorting the market in the short term.
- 10 handles or 10 points in range for high-probability shorting.
- How to do back testing.
- Closing the gap on a 10 second chart.
- The inefficiency of inefficiency.
- Bearish order block, market trades lower, inefficiency that did not exist on a one minute chart.
- Breaking strong.
01:18:13 - You don’t need this to be a profitable trading strategy.
- Finding trades that won't exist in a one minute chart.
- Three drives pattern, overshoots inefficiency.
- How to get into a silver bullet trade.
- What to expect in a 60 minute window.
- If stopped out, re-enter if still viable.
- How to get in on the trade.
Transcript
| 1 | 00:00:20,970 --> 00:00:31,710 | ICT: Hello, folks, Welcome back. Hope you're all doing well. So here we have the weekly chart of the dollar index. And if you've been keeping notes, we've been |
| 2 | 00:00:31,710 --> 00:00:41,820 | pretty much calling this day by day. And you might have missed how it's performing as we're outlining each day, so just want to bring that to your |
| 3 | 00:00:41,820 --> 00:00:52,110 | attention. Many times people get caught up in the Netflix and chill aspect of ICT plethora of videos. But it's important to take notes, write down what we're |
| 4 | 00:00:52,110 --> 00:00:59,040 | anticipating what we're looking for, that we can go into your charts, even if it's just for back testing purposes, you'll be able to see what it is that you |
| 5 | 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:11,430 | should be gleaning from the lectures and price action. Alright, so weekly chart Dollar Index, you can see we traded up into more of this up close candle here. |
| 6 | 00:01:12,150 --> 00:01:22,560 | Now, initially, I took your attention to the opening price, which we hit yesterday. And then I said, we would likely see continuation upside, further |
| 7 | 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:34,740 | weakness on euro dollar. And we saw that transpire today. So the next level on this up close candle is mean threshold in threshold is the halfway point from |
| 8 | 00:01:34,740 --> 00:01:50,250 | high to low. halfway point is here, that level comes in at 104. Point 540. Okay, so that's your level, you should have that on your chart. If we have |
| 9 | 00:01:50,250 --> 00:02:01,080 | continuation on the upside, that's the level I'm looking for. mentioned how we would use this imbalance from this candles low this candles high, that would act |
| 10 | 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:13,590 | as support in spring price higher. And we seen that happen here. No Wycoff required. Alright, daily chart here on dollar necks. Again, here's that weekly |
| 11 | 00:02:13,590 --> 00:02:20,700 | order block, the opening price is what that was, it's hard to discern what that is once we go into a lower timeframe. So if I was just to show you this chart |
| 12 | 00:02:20,700 --> 00:02:29,010 | here, with no reference on the actual weekly chart, it'd be a little confusing as to why I'm anchored right there. When it's just really that I'm anchored on |
| 13 | 00:02:29,580 --> 00:02:41,490 | the opening price of again, I need to get back up so that we can keep track that candle right there. And the opening price is what this is okay. So that's that |
| 14 | 00:02:41,490 --> 00:03:00,660 | right there. And we hit that yesterday. Then I mentioned we have this imbalance in here. And we also have a daily order block. This is this level here. Big up |
| 15 | 00:03:00,660 --> 00:03:13,650 | close candle right there in this timeframe. Now let me go back one more time, see how we identified this up close candle prior to the rotation lower. The same |
| 16 | 00:03:13,650 --> 00:03:26,580 | thing now we're applying that same logic to the daily chart, the last up close candle here. But the highest up close. Right there, that opening price is being |
| 17 | 00:03:26,730 --> 00:03:37,620 | annotated. And you can see we hit that today, which was just outside of the scope of this imbalance here. So dollar is a little bit overzealous. And we'll |
| 18 | 00:03:37,620 --> 00:03:51,240 | see if it wants to get up at one zero 4.5 for level I mentioned yesterday, the idea of its opening, trading down to a previous day's high, not offering any |
| 19 | 00:03:51,240 --> 00:04:02,400 | opportunity for a deferred inefficiency, which is what a fair value gap is. I dubbed it a fair a gap is because the market moves away too quickly. And it |
| 20 | 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:16,050 | leaves an inefficiency by means of an imbalance in price. So since the candles are moving higher, the imbalance is by side so it's by side and balance, sell |
| 21 | 00:04:16,050 --> 00:04:28,380 | side inefficiency. So it's inefficient in offering down delivery or movement delivered on the downside. So price rotation on a liquidity continuum basis, |
| 22 | 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:42,390 | meaning that the price is efficiently delivered between a range of price action for instance, if we were to look at the range between one zero and one, zero, |
| 23 | 00:04:42,630 --> 00:05:00,450 | that's 20 pips for Euro it's moved up, down, up, down in that range between 40 and 20 multiple times. Notice that so if price has been moving back in forth |
| 24 | 00:05:00,780 --> 00:05:12,900 | between a defined range of one zero 3.40 and one, zero. If we get a bias determined, which is what I'm sharing, I'm sharing my 30 years experience with |
| 25 | 00:05:12,900 --> 00:05:24,300 | you telling you that this is where it was going to go. And then higher still, if we ever get an opening on a candle, and it drops down to a previous high. Now |
| 26 | 00:05:24,300 --> 00:05:33,390 | normally if this would have stopped short, like say the the low was up here, and didn't go all the way down to Monday's high, that would create a typical |
| 27 | 00:05:33,420 --> 00:05:48,720 | deferred inefficiency. Meaning that it would go to a fair value gap protocol. Something like what we've seen, let me take you back up one more time. This is a |
| 28 | 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:57,900 | fair value gap between this scandals high in this candles low and at one candle on the downside. That low that high in between those two price points. Price |
| 29 | 00:05:57,930 --> 00:06:11,040 | only went down. So it's a very vague gap. Yes, but a specific category is a sippy s IBI sellside, imbalanced by side inefficiency. So it needs to see what |
| 30 | 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:20,910 | to be efficiently balanced. Upside delivery net happens on this candle here. And then we opened. And we were in this weekly candle that I mentioned during this |
| 31 | 00:06:20,910 --> 00:06:30,780 | weekly candles formation that we would use this as an inversion fair value gap. So it's typically viewed if you would just watch a casual viewing of my videos, |
| 32 | 00:06:30,780 --> 00:06:38,940 | and you would think okay, well, he says if it goes up here is probably going to start going down. No. That's why it's important to understand narrative. That's |
| 33 | 00:06:38,940 --> 00:06:47,790 | mentoring, okay, you only get that from me. If you spent time with me, not just a few videos, you cannot assume by watching a few videos or watching anybody |
| 34 | 00:06:47,790 --> 00:06:59,430 | else try to do it. You know, parent, whatever I said, incompletely, you can't learn that way. You have to have a length of time through exposure, and seeing |
| 35 | 00:06:59,430 --> 00:07:11,910 | it over and over and over again. But ringing in narrative that gives you a bias that gives you a context, a framework for trade. Without those steps in that |
| 36 | 00:07:11,910 --> 00:07:21,030 | order, you're not going to find a trade, it's high probability, you're going to be lost in the charts, and you'll just be frustrated. So let's go back down to |
| 37 | 00:07:21,030 --> 00:07:30,720 | the daily chart. I mentioned yesterday if we see this formation, and this is what I dubbed a immediate rebalance. So we opened here traded down to a previous |
| 38 | 00:07:30,810 --> 00:07:42,750 | day's high doesn't mean it's the previous day immediately to the left, or yesterday's high. We're always referring to the essence of inefficiency, and |
| 39 | 00:07:43,110 --> 00:07:55,290 | redelivery. Fear value gaps, highlight those inefficiencies, and opportunity for redelivery. So, for instance, I can take a look at this candle here. We have |
| 40 | 00:07:55,290 --> 00:08:03,450 | this candles high this candles low. So there's a fair value gap. It trades down, but it doesn't go all the way back down to that high. Notice that that's fine. |
| 41 | 00:08:03,840 --> 00:08:15,630 | That right there to me is a breakaway gap. I'll talk a little bit more about breakaway gaps in this lecture. This candle opening, it trades down in goes |
| 42 | 00:08:15,630 --> 00:08:27,480 | right to this candles high, which is Monday's high. So it gives no room or opportunity for a inefficiency to exist. Why? Why would that happen? If we're |
| 43 | 00:08:27,480 --> 00:08:36,060 | bullish in markets are expected to go higher, and it does this type of formation. You'll want to write this in your journal. This is one of the most |
| 44 | 00:08:36,060 --> 00:08:45,300 | powerful signatures for immediate dynamic price delivery. I said this to you yesterday, if you've watched any of my older videos, and if you've been with me |
| 45 | 00:08:45,300 --> 00:08:52,560 | for a long time as a student, you've heard me refer to an immediate rebounds. And that is one of the strongest algorithmic price delivery signatures you're |
| 46 | 00:08:52,560 --> 00:09:06,690 | going to see. Look at the price delivery here on dollar, fast and snappy. That was those that go back two days ago. And I was stating that I expected to go up |
| 47 | 00:09:06,690 --> 00:09:20,940 | to this level here on Tuesdays analysis, and then Wednesday's delivery in price it went right to it and close right there. But on Tuesday, I was mentioning that |
| 48 | 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:30,600 | I'm not certain it's going to go above this fair value cap. So that gave you context. It's going to go to that level and then stop, not give anything more. |
| 49 | 00:09:32,820 --> 00:09:42,540 | The fact that we opened, traded down and then rally to that point, and we did our review last night. That gave me the context to tell you we're going to |
| 50 | 00:09:42,540 --> 00:09:53,010 | continue higher on dollar and lower on Eurodollar. So it's still a risk off scenario, meaning dollar goes higher. Typically that's a risk off scenario. All |
| 51 | 00:09:53,010 --> 00:10:05,610 | foreign currencies should decline more in sympathy to a higher dollar the fact We had this immediate rebalance. And we're bullish, and we're looking for higher |
| 52 | 00:10:05,610 --> 00:10:15,960 | prices. That allows for us to see directional bias being bullish. So we can be a buyer of dollar and a short seller of foreign currency. |
| 53 | 00:10:21,059 --> 00:10:29,039 | All right, so here is the euro dollar. This is our weekly chart here, you can see we've expanded a little bit further. And that weekly order block the opening |
| 54 | 00:10:29,039 --> 00:10:41,969 | price is what I have here. And I still think that that is a likely draw, or where I think price may draw down to and everything was reversed. In the |
| 55 | 00:10:41,969 --> 00:10:51,179 | analysis last night, as we mentioned, on the dollar index, we had an immediate rebalance, which is bullish for dollar. We had that same development here on |
| 56 | 00:10:51,209 --> 00:10:59,789 | Euro dollar we opened yesterday, traded up to Monday's low. And then acceleration to the downside I took your attention to right there, I said, See, |
| 57 | 00:10:59,789 --> 00:11:07,559 | there's two relative equal lows. That's sellside resting right below that, watch that, I believe it's going to draw down to that. And lo and behold, look at |
| 58 | 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:15,959 | that, look how cherry picked and lucky that was traded right down into it and pull off that low. So the relative equal lows the sell sell equity here was |
| 59 | 00:11:15,959 --> 00:11:26,639 | tapped into this inefficiency. This is a fair value gap between this candles low this candles high. So this one candle between these two reference points here is |
| 60 | 00:11:26,669 --> 00:11:40,169 | only offered what by side. Because it's moved up to efficiently reprice and balance this inefficiency, price needs to trade down to it through it or go back |
| 61 | 00:11:40,199 --> 00:11:50,519 | up has to leave this area once it offers a down candle passing through that same range that shaded in orange. Okay, the blue line is that weekly order block the |
| 62 | 00:11:50,519 --> 00:11:59,609 | opening price. So we're expecting I'm expecting let's say that way, and I'm expecting the continuation or likely continuation down into this area here. |
| 63 | 00:12:01,409 --> 00:12:12,659 | Because it's holiday weekend, it might not deliver it tomorrow. And it may need to do so next week. But I'm sticking with the bias that higher dollar weaker |
| 64 | 00:12:12,659 --> 00:12:24,449 | euro dollar. So here's that line here. From those two daily candles that I mentioned, it was a relatively equal low. And where sell side liquidity, I mean, |
| 65 | 00:12:24,449 --> 00:12:33,029 | sell stocks, we're resting below that. You can see we did in fact dip down into that now last night when we were talking. The chart look like right there. That |
| 66 | 00:12:33,029 --> 00:12:41,489 | was the last candlestick at a time for me creating PowerPoint slides. And during our discussion, I mentioned that there was sell side resting below here. And we |
| 67 | 00:12:41,489 --> 00:12:53,249 | would look to see if it draws down into those relative equal lows and that shaded area, which is the fair value gap. And the order block from the weekly |
| 68 | 00:12:53,249 --> 00:13:04,229 | chart there definitely want Okay, so we're essentially looking for that 107 big figure there abouts. Okay. If, if we were not to get that at all, and say it |
| 69 | 00:13:04,229 --> 00:13:13,379 | reversed say the dollar topped out here. And the Euro went lower? Would this be a failure own analysis? No, because it offered opportunity to see a run from |
| 70 | 00:13:13,379 --> 00:13:20,519 | where we were last night, I said we would go lower, but it would likely go higher first as for short term premium, and then drop go down. Listen to the |
| 71 | 00:13:20,519 --> 00:13:29,069 | recordings every single time I do a video, you want to write down what my expectations are? What am I expecting? What am I looking for? What would I see |
| 72 | 00:13:29,069 --> 00:13:41,189 | as a potential scenario? Okay? I will sometimes tell you, sometimes if I'm unsure if I'm unclear, I'll be honest, I'll tell you, I'm not sure I need more |
| 73 | 00:13:41,189 --> 00:13:50,039 | information. But then I'll say gun to my head. So if I ever say gun to my head, I'm just telling you what I think based on what prices showing me in the chart, |
| 74 | 00:13:50,339 --> 00:13:58,589 | unless I'm saying that and I'm telling you what I suspect is going to happen. That is my hard and fast expectation that that's what I really sit down from the |
| 75 | 00:13:58,589 --> 00:14:05,519 | charts and I believe based on the words I'm sharing with you, it does not mean you should go out there and bet the farm on it. Okay, you're learning how to |
| 76 | 00:14:05,519 --> 00:14:15,029 | read price action. That's why you're here. And you're gonna see consistency. You're you've seen it all week so far. And it's really a crappy week. So take |
| 77 | 00:14:15,059 --> 00:14:23,279 | away from it, what you can glean the information and understanding while spending time with me, but also paying attention to what we're anticipating in |
| 78 | 00:14:23,279 --> 00:14:31,199 | terms of direction where it's reaching for, because that's the first skill set. That's the first thing that you need to set your mind to as a student with me. |
| 79 | 00:14:32,039 --> 00:14:43,799 | And even if you are a profitable trader doing something else, if I can help you develop that skill, your trading will improve drastically. It will increase |
| 80 | 00:14:43,829 --> 00:14:50,429 | every visibility skill set that you have in terms of reading price action, beyond any expectation you may have ever held. |
| 81 | 00:14:55,590 --> 00:15:05,160 | So here's a 50 minute time frame going Eurodollar and here's the imbalance in here. And I mentioned that we would try to drop into a short term premium. We |
| 82 | 00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:16,830 | went right up into the inefficiency, one more time, broke lower. And this worked into that eventual, relatively equal low from the daily chart, dug into it twice |
| 83 | 00:15:16,830 --> 00:15:29,430 | here, and then we consolidated into close. Alright, so now we're going to look at the five minute chart here. And I've rung in this candle here, which is the |
| 84 | 00:15:29,430 --> 00:15:41,160 | midnight, Midnight in New York, the opening price, you can extend that through price action to around 11 o'clock in the morning if we're bearish, okay, if |
| 85 | 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:50,460 | we're bearish. Any time price returns back the opening price, and we have not met our objective. What was our objective last night? Well, the first thing was |
| 86 | 00:15:50,460 --> 00:16:00,570 | those relative equal lows. And then that phire Get that's outside the range that I'm showing you on this chart, which is essentially around that 1.0705 level to |
| 87 | 00:16:00,570 --> 00:16:18,300 | 1.07. Big figure. At this time, here, we ran up during the one in session, running out these relative equal highs, see that ran above it took out buy |
| 88 | 00:16:18,300 --> 00:16:25,800 | stocks, why would that be advantageous because Smart Money will take those buy stops and short against it. They will use the buy starts being rammed here as |
| 89 | 00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:36,870 | counterparty to their shorts. The market drops lower and falls just short of those relative equal lows, which is that line here, okay at 1.07 13 in two |
| 90 | 00:16:36,870 --> 00:16:52,500 | pipettes leaves a fair value gap here. And a bearish Ottawa market trades back up just before 5am drops back now. It's numberblock 10. Close candle. Rallies |
| 91 | 00:16:52,500 --> 00:17:00,930 | once more, takes out this short term high here. False just short of hitting that order block at trades right into that gap right there between this candles high |
| 92 | 00:17:00,930 --> 00:17:10,140 | and that candles low trades right into it then drops one more time, where's it dropping to just below the short term relative equal lows here. And then Where's |
| 93 | 00:17:10,140 --> 00:17:24,240 | it go then, during the seven o'clock session, New York time it rallies all the way back up for a third time after London, London lunch. And then during the 830 |
| 94 | 00:17:24,270 --> 00:17:33,930 | window for the news driver comes out. The news embargo lifts at 830. And then we went one more time, hit the order block from the buy stop and trade one more |
| 95 | 00:17:33,930 --> 00:17:43,890 | time above the New York opening price. For my concept of power three, I teach that the midnight opening price if we're bullish Best Buys, or the optimal |
| 96 | 00:17:44,010 --> 00:17:52,830 | entries for going long is below this opening price at midnight. If I'm bearish and you knew I was bearish on Euro yesterday in the last few days, the best |
| 97 | 00:17:52,830 --> 00:18:02,910 | shorts are going to occur at or above the midnight opening price in New York time. So you need to have your charts set on trading view to sit to New York |
| 98 | 00:18:02,910 --> 00:18:13,770 | local time. And right now because we're under daylight savings time, it will be UTC negative for that candle right there. The opening price is midnight opening |
| 99 | 00:18:13,770 --> 00:18:27,150 | price. We are in power three, we're hitting the order block. And we're wiping up by side. And we're trading above the New York midnight opening price. While the |
| 100 | 00:18:27,150 --> 00:18:34,800 | sell side below there's relative equal lows on the daily chart that we mentioned last night as an objective, where your withdrawal down into drawing down to an |
| 101 | 00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:47,580 | hour. It's a gravitates gravitates to it like a magnet. So below this line here is sell stops, not your sell stock because you can probably hold a trade longer |
| 102 | 00:18:47,580 --> 00:18:57,750 | than today because you get nervous. But long term hedge funds have orders resting below those relatively equal lows. So the market went above that opening |
| 103 | 00:18:57,750 --> 00:19:07,650 | price at midnight, that offers the opportunity for smart money to sell short they're conveniently allowing the short term buy stops that the market saw it |
| 104 | 00:19:07,650 --> 00:19:18,240 | tripped. This run up here, stop that anyone that was short running there. And then anyone short on this move get stopped out there. So they've engineered |
| 105 | 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:27,780 | liquidity by stops here by stops here. So that allowed them to use that midnight opening price. So the algorithm runs up there allowing smart money to go short. |
| 106 | 00:19:28,770 --> 00:19:39,300 | Then their target is going to be what what I told you last night the relative equal lows on the daily chart. That's that 1.07132 level. And where does it |
| 107 | 00:19:39,300 --> 00:19:51,690 | drop? Just shorter this one rallies more time back up into the inefficiency it was as a city then breaks hard into that pool of liquidity wrestling below those |
| 108 | 00:19:51,690 --> 00:20:09,000 | daily relatively equal lows. If you're a new viewer, I promise you this probably seems Very complicated. It sounds probably too far and lofty for your |
| 109 | 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:18,420 | understanding right now. I promise you, if you keep watching the videos, you'll learn it. But you can't learn institutional order flow by just watching a few |
| 110 | 00:20:18,420 --> 00:20:26,370 | videos, okay? You have to look at things and see it from the eyes of someone who's seen it and experienced it done it for a longer time than Neil. And since |
| 111 | 00:20:26,370 --> 00:20:34,710 | I authored these concepts, it's imperative that you take notes and look at these things in past price data. Don't take my word for something, obviously, you can |
| 112 | 00:20:34,710 --> 00:20:41,640 | hear me say what I'm expecting in future price moves, and you're seeing it happen. But don't limit your study to just the whatever I think is going to |
| 113 | 00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:49,740 | happen. Next, take your time between our sessions, go back through old moves in price action and study and look at the things I'm teaching does it materialize |
| 114 | 00:20:49,740 --> 00:21:00,120 | in your study, and you'll find that it does. These to close candles here, there, that's your order box bearish order block trades up into that, and then works |
| 115 | 00:21:00,120 --> 00:21:17,850 | lower once more shift in market structure. So this right here, this right here is a metal 2022 by side swept, low taken is there a fair shake up in here, right |
| 116 | 00:21:17,850 --> 00:21:27,450 | there, trades up into it, you can get short there and aim for one more pass into that sellside liquidity pool and there's relatively equal lows in in digs into |
| 117 | 00:21:27,450 --> 00:21:42,150 | it there, then bounces off of that and we consolidate into the close day. Alright, here's a one minute chart. And we're dialed in on that actual run into |
| 118 | 00:21:42,150 --> 00:21:51,150 | the sell side. These are that relative equal lows on the daily chart that level right here. We're viewing Eurodollar from the perspective of a one minute chart, |
| 119 | 00:21:51,210 --> 00:22:01,980 | you can see that up here. So here's our sell off here. Breaks lower relative equal highs, relative equal lows, you see that so we're creating this little |
| 120 | 00:22:01,980 --> 00:22:09,930 | trend trading range with the bias is being what at that time altering this consolidation. We're anticipating as I mentioned last night, we're wanting to |
| 121 | 00:22:09,930 --> 00:22:23,880 | see Euro dollar trade down in that sell side liquidity I mean, sell stocks resting below 1.0713. It drops aggressively down into that right in here. Then |
| 122 | 00:22:24,300 --> 00:22:32,940 | whips right back above it trades one more time to below it, but only to consequent encouragement, which is the midpoint of this gap from this candles |
| 123 | 00:22:32,970 --> 00:22:44,040 | high to that candles low measured on your own. The Fibonacci is that level right there, and it hits it. And then we come back to life rallying higher, short term |
| 124 | 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:52,860 | high. So once this liquidity below these relative equal lows on the daily chart is engaged, we can anticipate what the market to want to pull back inside the |
| 125 | 00:22:52,860 --> 00:23:03,300 | range. We're seeing it do that. What's left up here Beisa liquidity, there's BizStats, who will look at this as retail resistance, the average trader that |
| 126 | 00:23:03,300 --> 00:23:11,220 | reads a book, watch a few YouTube videos. And he thinks that everything works on these imaginary support resistance lines. So they're going to trust this and be |
| 127 | 00:23:11,220 --> 00:23:23,430 | short thinking, okay, I can put my stop loss up here, what kind of stop a buy stop to protect them? Well, the market quickly runs for those buy stocks because |
| 128 | 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:35,880 | the algorithm does not want them to pull their order. Smart Money, distributes their short position and buys up here and then adds for long here to ride up to |
| 129 | 00:23:37,350 --> 00:23:50,580 | these by stops. We have an order block up here. Trades above, trades back down into a breaker, low, high, lower low, the highest up close candle is right in |
| 130 | 00:23:50,580 --> 00:23:58,980 | here. Take that range on your own chart, extend it forward, we're turning that into that bullish breakout trades up into it and hits the order block there. |
| 131 | 00:24:00,210 --> 00:24:14,100 | Then we consolidate going into London close on closes between 10 o'clock in the morning to noon. We had a fair a gap here. Multiple times this is this is time |
| 132 | 00:24:14,100 --> 00:24:22,110 | distortion, where it just stays inside of a range. It's already priced in the high to stays in that range doesn't work outside that look at the bodies, the |
| 133 | 00:24:22,110 --> 00:24:30,330 | wicks will go just outside that very gap but that's okay, it's permissible. And then we would expect it to trade lower again, reaching back down into the daily |
| 134 | 00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:42,150 | relatively equal lows again. Here's that mu here. So we have 10 to 11 your fair value gap after hitting the order block. |
| 135 | 00:24:45,150 --> 00:24:54,780 | This would be your fill. But you could have multiple opportunities to go short trading for the New York Stock run. So where would that be? That lower? Here's |
| 136 | 00:24:54,780 --> 00:25:09,750 | where stops are. This is the most energetic run prior to New York launch Your lunch is 12 to one. So here's 12 to one, prior to that 12 o'clock, where's the |
| 137 | 00:25:09,750 --> 00:25:19,140 | most energetic price maybe on the outside, right there. So what is that going to be that's the target to algorithm will run down, create a fair value get tripped |
| 138 | 00:25:19,140 --> 00:25:25,830 | up in here, it breaks lower. If you're a gap hits it institutional order for entry drill, which is a partial entry into a gap that does not completely fill |
| 139 | 00:25:26,370 --> 00:25:37,200 | breaks one more time, gap, order block, two consecutive closed candles, trades into it perfectly. drops one more time, that low takes out that low right there. |
| 140 | 00:25:38,580 --> 00:25:53,700 | Then it springs back into the range. That range right there. Also, if you look closely is a breaker, the lowest down close candle. high, low, high, extend the |
| 141 | 00:25:53,700 --> 00:26:04,800 | forward. There's your range these these two consecutive down close candles make up one waterblock they would have locked here is the breaker. Why am I not using |
| 142 | 00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:16,710 | this one, this candle went lower ICT, you're using the candles to have the lower body. This is the lower body. Also, this is also occurring rate immediately |
| 143 | 00:26:16,710 --> 00:26:28,590 | after the high I would not look at this as breaker otherwise, the for instance, let's just say that this body here didn't go as low as the clothes it has in |
| 144 | 00:26:28,590 --> 00:26:36,780 | this candle say it was closing higher than that candles close then was up here. I wouldn't even refer to it as a breaker there wouldn't even refer to this at |
| 145 | 00:26:36,780 --> 00:26:46,080 | all as a breaker if it did that. But because it did this high, low higher high. Remember the wicks do the damage. So I'm going to look at that wick and discard |
| 146 | 00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:57,480 | it. It's a one minute chart. So you can't really find much more beyond that if we're looking for a range for defining a breaker to haisa. I low higher high to |
| 147 | 00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:04,410 | down close candles because then that forward, we're seeing it trade up into the breaker there and right there as well. And then we see price reach back one more |
| 148 | 00:27:04,410 --> 00:27:16,110 | time. Below the low prior to New York session lunch, which is noon to one o'clock. You thought it only worked in a yes and index futures Did you know so |
| 149 | 00:27:16,530 --> 00:27:29,550 | it runs in here and back inside the range. Alright, E Mini s&p is our weekly chart here. And see we traded down below last week's low and we are back inside |
| 150 | 00:27:29,550 --> 00:27:43,230 | the range. on the daily chart here, you can see worked inside that sell side liquidity pool, as I'll show you in lower timeframes. This rectangle will be |
| 151 | 00:27:43,230 --> 00:27:51,570 | much more meaningful to you when we drop in the lower timeframes. It's simply the opening range gap. But I want you to take notice of how the bodies of the |
| 152 | 00:27:51,570 --> 00:28:03,060 | candles here. The close, I'm sorry, the open of this candle here and open of this candle here is right at that opening range. And now again, it'll make much |
| 153 | 00:28:03,060 --> 00:28:13,440 | more sense when we go on lower timeframes. But we're just trading up inside this inefficiency here. So it'll be important to see if we reject that overnight |
| 154 | 00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:22,410 | going into tomorrow. Or if we power through that and completely close it. If we trade above the gap between this candles high and that candles low, if we trade |
| 155 | 00:28:22,410 --> 00:28:30,150 | above it, I would treat that as a inversion gap something that's bullish right now I'm looking at it as a potential area just to get short and look for lower |
| 156 | 00:28:30,150 --> 00:28:42,630 | prices because we have 123 relative equal lows here. And that sell side is really really juicy right now, we've already seen this 123456 times go higher. |
| 157 | 00:28:43,620 --> 00:28:56,850 | So this to me looks a little too tempting for a rundown below that. And yes, it's a lot. But we have a lot of time between now at the time of this recording. |
| 158 | 00:28:57,300 --> 00:29:11,940 | And the close Friday's close, especially if we continuously see the dollar index rallying higher. Alright, here's the hourly chart on any s&p. This was the sell |
| 159 | 00:29:11,940 --> 00:29:18,720 | side liquidity pool I mentioned that we would draw down into if we failed to find any support we got we got that as well look at the bodies. I mentioned that |
| 160 | 00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:30,120 | yesterday evening. And then yesterday I told you that I'm expecting it to draw up into a closure of the opening range. You'll see that in a minute but also up |
| 161 | 00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:41,190 | to the buy side right in here. Okay, go watch the video from last night. I've added it to the playlist for the 2023 mentorships every time I do a video. If |
| 162 | 00:29:41,190 --> 00:29:50,130 | it's a live stream, I have to add them to the the mentorship playlist. Like this one here I'm recording it pre recording it and shown everything that we talked |
| 163 | 00:29:50,130 --> 00:29:59,970 | about last night came to pass in it'll just fall in the ICT mentorship 2023 playlist, because I put it there but a live stream like you've seen it go to my |
| 164 | 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:08,760 | YouTube channel in this look at the last video, you won't see it there, you have to click on the Live tab. But to make it easier for you, I've added the live |
| 165 | 00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:18,330 | streams that I'm doing in the mentorship 2023 playlist. So as I do them as I create them, they go right into that playlist. So if you want to bookmark that |
| 166 | 00:30:18,330 --> 00:30:30,690 | playlist, you'll have all the videos I'm producing this year that are mentorship grade. Alright, so here's Tuesday, in Wednesday's opening range gap. And you |
| 167 | 00:30:30,690 --> 00:30:39,240 | probably remember that yesterday, and I'd like to keep opening range gaps on my chart for three days. Okay, so that's one of those opportunities, if you're not |
| 168 | 00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:46,860 | paying attention, and you just let me say it and you don't write it down. It's one of those gems that just simply will not make it in your understanding. But |
| 169 | 00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:56,880 | after three days, it expires in my mind, okay, and it's all part of my power three concept, which I'll teach more about later. It's not just simply the, the |
| 170 | 00:30:56,880 --> 00:31:07,830 | open high, low and close or the accumulation, manipulation to distribution, it's not just that it's much more than a Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, opening range |
| 171 | 00:31:07,830 --> 00:31:19,410 | gap is shaded here. That's what we're seeing on the daily chart. Notice that from Tuesday crossing over the Wednesday's opening range gap, it was still being |
| 172 | 00:31:19,410 --> 00:31:33,630 | respected on Thursday. Look at the respect of it here. Look at this candles high. Look at the bodies in here. See that. So there's a whole lot more going |
| 173 | 00:31:33,630 --> 00:31:44,100 | on, behind the scenes that is algorithmic, that unless you know about it, it's completely you're completely oblivious to it. The average trader, the average |
| 174 | 00:31:44,220 --> 00:31:51,840 | person that understands gaps, they don't think about the market like this. And that's what separates me from everybody else. If you want to be an apex |
| 175 | 00:31:51,840 --> 00:32:03,210 | predator, you have to hunt differently, you have to be the first one to take the prey. You can't wait around. This is not the second mouse gets the cheese. We |
| 176 | 00:32:03,210 --> 00:32:13,920 | are we're not mice were lions, we're going out. And we're taking it. So the buy side is what I told you, we reach out for yesterday, right up above here. And |
| 177 | 00:32:13,950 --> 00:32:27,510 | that we would trade up into the high end of that gap. Okay. Yesterday, we were talking it was right about in here. And then we opened up here traded down at |
| 178 | 00:32:27,510 --> 00:32:36,900 | six o'clock. And then we meandered around, and then found our way up to it and above it fell short of the buyside liquidity here. So that the objective is what |
| 179 | 00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:46,740 | still run no stops. So it comes all the way back down to the low of that opening range gap from Tuesday and Wednesday. Now I'm sure you're probably scratching |
| 180 | 00:32:46,740 --> 00:32:53,370 | your head isn't the first time you watch the video. What am I saying the Tuesday the Wednesday opening range gap is where do I get the information from right? |
| 181 | 00:32:54,960 --> 00:33:04,530 | You have to change your chart to regular trading hours, not electronic trading hours. And you'll see the separation between the settlement price and the |
| 182 | 00:33:04,530 --> 00:33:14,040 | opening price on the new day. So this is what happened on Tuesday. And we have one here also. Okay, so I'm going to add this one, I'm gonna change this one to |
| 183 | 00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:25,440 | a different color, it'll still be on the chart because very important to understand what's about to happen here. It's shaded in gray. So it's there, like |
| 184 | 00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:36,720 | a ghost behind the scenes. No pun intended. That ghost in the machine. So we have the opening range get for Wednesday, Thursday now, which is this now, |
| 185 | 00:33:37,050 --> 00:33:46,710 | broader range. So there's an overlapping of those two opening range gaps. I promise you, you will never see that in books anywhere. Now. There's gonna be |
| 186 | 00:33:46,710 --> 00:33:53,790 | people out there to hurry up and run out there and printer books on Amazon and talk about this because I've said it today. But this is the first time I've ever |
| 187 | 00:33:53,790 --> 00:34:05,850 | taught this. Even my charter members don't know this. So today, the 25th of May 2023. I'm teaching you something that I've never given to the public before. So |
| 188 | 00:34:05,850 --> 00:34:17,040 | I want you to appreciate this. If you run around on your YouTube channel and create these mentorships of your own, okay, and you pretend Eunice beforehand or |
| 189 | 00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:19,980 | have you always been doing it, you're going to look a little foolish now. |
| 190 | 00:34:20,580 --> 00:34:34,110 | So after we get this opening range gap here that oh, one Tuesday Wednesday, we open above it trade down and find support at the lows of it. You see that? But |
| 191 | 00:34:34,140 --> 00:34:46,650 | it didn't feel this? Why? Why didn't it feel that? Because it has unfinished business or the unfinished business. The buy stops up here. ran up there hit it. |
| 192 | 00:34:47,370 --> 00:34:58,530 | Now we have a gap. Just like we're treating yesterday's Tuesday, Wednesday opening gap. We had some portion still to fill in. Now we can look for this area |
| 193 | 00:34:58,530 --> 00:35:09,690 | here to potentially have Have a event, fill it in tomorrow or we price to it. That's my expectation going forward, I probably am wrong, okay. So don't put too |
| 194 | 00:35:09,690 --> 00:35:18,810 | much weight or emphasis on it. But that's how I've looked at it, we're going into a holiday weekend, anything can happen. So, I, I'm really not even doing a |
| 195 | 00:35:18,810 --> 00:35:25,410 | video tomorrow, I'm not gonna be looking at the market tomorrow, we were going to be doing something for our family. So I could care less what the market does. |
| 196 | 00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:31,530 | But if you're going to hunt, hold a gun to my head and say iced tea Tell me right now what you think, I think that we're gonna try to make an attempt to get |
| 197 | 00:35:31,530 --> 00:35:41,610 | down here and work towards this area here. That's, that's what I think, okay, if I'm wrong, it would need to go back above, currently weak opening gap pi for me |
| 198 | 00:35:41,610 --> 00:35:52,110 | to be bullish again. There you go. So now we have both of those gaps. We have Tuesday, Wednesday opening range gap. And we have the Wednesday Thursday opening |
| 199 | 00:35:52,110 --> 00:36:00,210 | range gap. And we're back down here on electronic trading hours. So you can see there's relatively equal highs. I said there was bias last night, go watch the |
| 200 | 00:36:00,210 --> 00:36:10,020 | video. That's where I think it's going to draw to and get to the top of that old Tuesday, Wednesday opening range gap. Well, we did that here. Then we fell |
| 201 | 00:36:10,020 --> 00:36:21,960 | short. Notice what we did, we went above the range high there. But we didn't get to the buy side yet. Then it dropped all the way down to the low that gets it |
| 202 | 00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:36,030 | valid along. You still see it in here and and boom is gathering all kinds of new orders. But not by itself. Look closer, what is this? To pay Rageh at the lows, |
| 203 | 00:36:36,330 --> 00:36:47,430 | so smart money is accumulating? Right in here. market rallies up, comes back down, one more tap in, takes off, trades into a buy side and balance sell side |
| 204 | 00:36:47,430 --> 00:36:55,950 | efficiency, which is a fair value, got an order block right there. Where's the target device I told you last night, wham hits it beautifully. Does it |
| 205 | 00:36:55,950 --> 00:37:07,140 | continuously keep going higher, no. rejects it comes back down into the range by side, rise one more time pumps in and then fails once more. So I'm watching to |
| 206 | 00:37:07,140 --> 00:37:17,130 | see if this potential phantom trendline here breaks. And if it does, we'll be looking for the sell side here, below here and into the gap that would be |
| 207 | 00:37:17,130 --> 00:37:27,060 | otherwise expected the normally fill. But again, it's a holiday weekend, anything can happen, folks, the volume will be different than it normally is. So |
| 208 | 00:37:27,060 --> 00:37:32,940 | a lot of people just simply are going to go away. They're not going to be trading, they're not to be doing anything. So bear that in mind tomorrow. |
| 209 | 00:37:36,690 --> 00:37:44,370 | Alright, so now we're on that five minute chart. And we're bringing in the new day opening gap. Good grief, ICT has been catching on to talk about all the ones |
| 210 | 00:37:44,370 --> 00:37:53,340 | that matter. Okay, so the new day opening gap, and I taught this on the YouTube channel. So take a look at that, you'll find that in the video playlists for the |
| 211 | 00:37:53,340 --> 00:38:04,770 | 2003 mentorship, New Day opening gap in D OG in dog. So we have the closing price at five o'clock. And then we have the opening price at six o'clock. So |
| 212 | 00:38:04,770 --> 00:38:12,570 | that our separations what we're showing here, that's your Wednesday, Thursday, New Day opening gap, extend that throughout the day, you can see how we get |
| 213 | 00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:21,630 | constant encouragement over here and then sells off. Consequent encouragement is half of any inefficiency or gap. Mean threshold is half of any order block. |
| 214 | 00:38:21,900 --> 00:38:28,860 | There's a distinction here, it's very important to keep that distinction and understand it. Then we fall just short of hitting the top of it here we work |
| 215 | 00:38:28,860 --> 00:38:37,740 | outside of it. And then we're adding one more time. Notice that in this little area here. We're hitting an order block, but we're also in consequent |
| 216 | 00:38:37,740 --> 00:38:48,060 | encroachment of the low in the high Marionette gray shaded. That's the Tuesday Wednesday opening range gap. That range here it's split that in half, its |
| 217 | 00:38:48,060 --> 00:38:59,610 | consequent Grossman. And that's what you're seeing right there. Or block consequent coachmen of Tuesday, Wednesday opening range gap rallies, yes, I'm |
| 218 | 00:38:59,610 --> 00:39:08,640 | gonna have a specific tutorial video for opening range gaps. But I have to teach it I have to prove to you a conceptual idea. I've done this in my live streams. |
| 219 | 00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:16,650 | I've talked about it also in analysis, but I'm giving you the foundation. And then when I give you a lecture, it'll be like, Oh, he's pulled all those loose |
| 220 | 00:39:16,650 --> 00:39:24,300 | ends together. Now I can see what he's talking about now. But that's consequent Crotona, that rallies, small little gap in here trades down into the low end of |
| 221 | 00:39:24,300 --> 00:39:34,110 | the new day opening gap for Wednesday, Thursday. That's this one over here. You can see real quickly. Unless you have these things on your chart, or as I have |
| 222 | 00:39:34,110 --> 00:39:42,000 | them I haven't written down. I'd look at the chart. And I have these levels in my notes. And you're probably wondering, what can you show us your notes, it's |
| 223 | 00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:50,520 | simply these prices. That's all it is and labeled with this. It's not going to mean anything to you. But I've been doing this a very long time. So I know the |
| 224 | 00:39:50,520 --> 00:40:01,290 | levels I'm looking for. And I'm looking at it in terms of time. So what's so specific about this here in this year it's occurring around that 830 News |
| 225 | 00:40:01,290 --> 00:40:12,000 | embargo. So we had news that coming out, and then we have the impulsive price like that runs up retracement runs again, it falls short of our objective and |
| 226 | 00:40:12,030 --> 00:40:24,270 | crashes already back down into an order block here. And it's also the low of what, that Tuesday Wednesday, opening range gap low. And that shaded area here |
| 227 | 00:40:24,300 --> 00:40:33,900 | see it. It's mining right with that waterblock digging into it, digging into it, and then rallies more time. And then finally blows out the buy side that I told |
| 228 | 00:40:33,900 --> 00:40:44,010 | you last night would be the objective for today's trading for Thursday, May 25 2023. For es, we slipped lower consequent encroachment of New Day opening |
| 229 | 00:40:44,010 --> 00:40:51,600 | gap. That's this gray area, really one more time to run into the rejection block, which is the highest up close candle here. And then they suddenly |
| 230 | 00:40:51,600 --> 00:41:00,720 | realized, man, this is way too much information. You don't need all this. This is just 30 years of experience in my models, these are my tools, these are my |
| 231 | 00:41:00,720 --> 00:41:12,810 | concepts. I know this stuff like the back of my hand, you only need one thing, he one set up, I'm giving you a plethora of setups to work with. It's your job |
| 232 | 00:41:12,810 --> 00:41:20,670 | to find the ones that match your personality, when it makes the most sense to you. Not all of these things are going to make the most sense to all of you. In |
| 233 | 00:41:20,670 --> 00:41:28,650 | fact, it might be just one or two things that I ever teach you that you're like, Okay, I understand. That's amazing, that's great. But this is all I need to find |
| 234 | 00:41:28,650 --> 00:41:37,380 | my setup and I can make money on that. That's what your job is here. You're not trying to take everything I know, and press it into every single chart that |
| 235 | 00:41:37,380 --> 00:41:48,030 | you're looking at. Because they won't always appear. A breaker is not always there. A mitigation block is not always there. institutional order flow entry |
| 236 | 00:41:48,030 --> 00:42:00,480 | drill is not always there. So you have to, you know, keep in mind that you're you're still being expected to bring your own personality into this in the way I |
| 237 | 00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:09,210 | teach in the way I mentor I allow for that. I'm not trying to with an iron fist say this is what you're going to do. And only this because that doesn't work. |
| 238 | 00:42:10,410 --> 00:42:19,950 | Now there's people out there will say that, I do that. And they're lying. Because I don't do that I gave you many ways to skin this cat. And like I said |
| 239 | 00:42:19,950 --> 00:42:28,650 | many times before, I could create a new model every single day for an entire year and still not run out of yeast, this baker does not run out of yeast, I |
| 240 | 00:42:28,650 --> 00:42:38,010 | could literally bake cakes with profitability for the rest of my life, it would look completely new and fresh every single time you sat down with me 30 years of |
| 241 | 00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:48,630 | insane, insane study and insight that you would never glean anywhere else. That's what you're seeing here. It doesn't mimic anything else. It's not supply |
| 242 | 00:42:48,630 --> 00:42:57,930 | and demand. It's not Wycoff. It's not any of that stuff. The markets reaching for inefficiencies, and liquidity, and it's doing it on a time based delivery |
| 243 | 00:42:57,930 --> 00:43:08,220 | schedule. That's it. That's all it's doing, folks. Now, if you remind yourself continuously that that's what this is about. It will remove that tendency for |
| 244 | 00:43:08,220 --> 00:43:16,950 | you to reach out and say, Oh, this is too complicated, because it's not, it's not complicated. I'm just showing you everything available to you. And you have |
| 245 | 00:43:16,950 --> 00:43:25,500 | to see, okay, this time of day, is what I want to trade. This markets, what I want to trade in this setup, is what I want to trade on this framework is what |
| 246 | 00:43:25,500 --> 00:43:35,010 | I'm hunting in the marketplace, if it's not there, I do nothing. But it will exist at least once or twice a week. And that's enough. The problem is you want |
| 247 | 00:43:35,010 --> 00:43:43,680 | every single session every single day you want to be in every swing, you wanna be able to justify why you're not in a move every single time. And you want to |
| 248 | 00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:52,260 | know, you're in every move that makes money. And that's impractical. And that just shows infancy as as a trader, I felt that there was a way for me to do that |
| 249 | 00:43:52,260 --> 00:44:01,080 | too. And even with everything I know, I can't be in every move, I have to sleep, I have to do things with my family, I'm just not interested in look at the |
| 250 | 00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:08,190 | charts. And that's, that's the reality, so you can't put that much pressure on yourself. So let's keep on going here. |
| 251 | 00:44:10,710 --> 00:44:19,320 | Alright, so now we're gonna get into some orderflow in this is going to be a little bit in depth and just bear with me because it's probably gonna be one of |
| 252 | 00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:26,670 | those videos. At this point you want to come back to at a later time. Come back to this one a couple times this year, like every three weeks, come back to this |
| 253 | 00:44:26,670 --> 00:44:33,930 | one. And you'll see that you understand more about what I'm talking about here. Every time you do it. It'll seem like a brand new video each time you look at it |
| 254 | 00:44:33,930 --> 00:44:38,880 | and listen to it, because you won't be able to figure it out the information I'm showing because it won't it won't mean anything to you the first time listening |
| 255 | 00:44:39,330 --> 00:44:47,550 | for the older students people have been with me for a long time. This is going to be a little bit more in depth. Alright, so we have the 10 o'clock to 11 |
| 256 | 00:44:47,550 --> 00:44:58,320 | o'clock Silver Bullet hour in the am session. This is es on a one minute chart. And you can see at the high end of that old opening range gap we're opening and |
| 257 | 00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:06,150 | then slamming down Remember, we fell short of the bytes of liquidity I thought that we were going to go for. So we went outside the range of opening range gap. |
| 258 | 00:45:06,990 --> 00:45:16,650 | And then right here, we slam lower trade down into an order block room, the order block I showed you, before we went this slide here and we go back up. |
| 259 | 00:45:17,610 --> 00:45:28,680 | That's this one here. Okay. That blue line is that order block right there on a five minute chart. On a one minute chart, that level right here, what we're |
| 260 | 00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:36,660 | studying is the 10 o'clock to 11 o'clock time and give me one more time to back up to 10 o'clock till nine o'clock, we're looking at this price action here, |
| 261 | 00:45:36,690 --> 00:45:45,150 | what's being shown on the five minute chart here, we're zooming in all this little area here on a one minute chart right here. And then all this, we're |
| 262 | 00:45:45,150 --> 00:45:54,630 | going to magnify it. And looking at it on a one minute chart, so we're in that same area here. So the market drops down, we create a fair value gap in the form |
| 263 | 00:45:54,630 --> 00:46:05,520 | of passivity, self out unbalanced bias and inefficiency. That's this mu here. We we create relatively equal highs in relative equal lows, it trades down. |
| 264 | 00:46:06,210 --> 00:46:15,210 | Remember that shaded area here. This is the lower the old opening range gap Tuesday, Wednesday, and Tuesday, the Wednesday's opening range gap high |
| 265 | 00:46:17,160 --> 00:46:26,040 | retreating at the low of that old Tuesday, Wednesday, opening range gap, hitting here hitting here, look at the bodies respecting it, we just go outside of here. |
| 266 | 00:46:26,100 --> 00:46:37,530 | And then we run these relatively equal lows there, the whips are doing all the damage, then we quickly run back up, take out a short term high. Oh, now we have |
| 267 | 00:46:37,530 --> 00:46:50,100 | something right. This is the 2022 model that I taught on the YouTube channel. Take stops shifting market structure, fair value get by it. That's your silver |
| 268 | 00:46:50,100 --> 00:47:02,220 | bullet. Oh, so I can blend the 2022 model. And the idea of the ICT Silver Bullet blended together. And yeah, this is this is what you do. It isn't always going |
| 269 | 00:47:02,220 --> 00:47:09,990 | to be a continuation, you're going to treat it sometimes with a reversal. And this is what you're looking for here in bide here. These arrows are just for |
| 270 | 00:47:09,990 --> 00:47:16,110 | illustrative purposes, these are not executions for disclosure sake, I'm just showing you where your entry would be. This is how you want to do your own |
| 271 | 00:47:16,110 --> 00:47:26,010 | journaling. You want to like an areas over here, or over here or up in here. You want to annotate and reward yourself with positive self talk saying it was |
| 272 | 00:47:26,010 --> 00:47:37,050 | amazing to see this pan out the way I was expecting it to. And you see this and then when you look at it, we end later or the week later or a month ago, you go |
| 273 | 00:47:37,050 --> 00:47:45,030 | back and look at your old stuff. And you'll read that and your subconscious remembers that as pseudo experience. In the way you condition yourself with |
| 274 | 00:47:45,030 --> 00:47:53,040 | positive self talk, never putting anything negative in your journal entries. You're conditioning yourself to see the positive aspects of these types of |
| 275 | 00:47:53,040 --> 00:48:03,630 | things in price action, and you trick your brain into seeing it like you actually did it. And by doing that, it helps fuel your motivation. And it |
| 276 | 00:48:03,630 --> 00:48:11,400 | removes the uncertainty because you're training your expectation and your understanding and your subconscious to recognize these things quicker by doing |
| 277 | 00:48:11,400 --> 00:48:18,390 | it. Versus if you just watch the price action and you leaned on somebody else to point things out to you. When you're back testing and you're studying and you |
| 278 | 00:48:18,390 --> 00:48:26,250 | journaling, you want to really put some work into this, you really want to do I mean this, this right here is better than most technical books, I have books |
| 279 | 00:48:26,250 --> 00:48:37,950 | that I spent 400 hours on. And they are not this annotated. They're, they're not that detailed. I took my 30 years experience and what I look for in price |
| 280 | 00:48:37,950 --> 00:48:49,350 | action, and I applied it to this, these types of charts are examples of fractals and price action. This is what you want to treat this like meditation. And the |
| 281 | 00:48:49,350 --> 00:48:58,530 | more you put into this, the better you're going to be as a technician. And that technician will make you the better trader than you've ever imagined. But you |
| 282 | 00:48:58,530 --> 00:49:06,690 | have to do this step, folks, you can't just skip over it. There's no way you can learn how to do this without doing the back testing and journaling and study. It |
| 283 | 00:49:06,690 --> 00:49:15,180 | has to be done. And if you don't want to do it, then just simply expect that you're gonna fail. Okay? And that's the honest truth. And there is no |
| 284 | 00:49:15,180 --> 00:49:22,980 | sugarcoating it here, I don't ever do that here. But if you're trying to do it, pay fast and trying to do it and you not really putting an effort into doing it |
| 285 | 00:49:22,980 --> 00:49:30,630 | right. You're not going to be successful, and you have nobody to blame but yourself. But there's two opportunities here for the silver bullet. You have |
| 286 | 00:49:30,630 --> 00:49:39,540 | this one here where it trades down into it. And then we have this one here and it rallies up takes the buy side here and then runs into the bearish order block |
| 287 | 00:49:39,600 --> 00:49:51,840 | and it doesn't even need to trade outside of that old range on Wednesday Thursday's opening range gap. So we have profitability and being incorrect. We |
| 288 | 00:49:51,840 --> 00:50:01,800 | weren't we're aiming for the buy side. Wait a minute, you just said we're wrong and we can be profitable. Yes. Remember the rules for sale were bought for ES or |
| 289 | 00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:12,600 | index futures is got to offer at least a 10 handle range. Well, if you're buying it down here at 4142, and you're expecting it to go up to the buy side, that's |
| 290 | 00:50:12,600 --> 00:50:20,580 | the best case scenario. But you also have these gaps in here, this shaded area on here, and you had this on here. So you have Tuesday, Wednesday and Wednesday, |
| 291 | 00:50:20,580 --> 00:50:28,650 | Thursday's opening range gap, the algorithm will refer back to those same levels, folks, okay, it's not just doing it today. And yesterday, it's it's |
| 292 | 00:50:28,650 --> 00:50:37,110 | going to do this in perpetuity, every day in the future, it's going to remember these levels, up to three days, sometimes it'll refer to beyond three days. But |
| 293 | 00:50:37,200 --> 00:50:45,660 | if you use three days, as General thumb, it will serve you well. After three days, take it off your chart, you do not have all these on the same chart, you |
| 294 | 00:50:45,660 --> 00:50:53,910 | have to curate templates, and templates are useful. So you have a template to has all of the opening range gaps settle your title. And this is what I'm |
| 295 | 00:50:53,910 --> 00:51:00,960 | talking about when when I'm telling you that I have 12 different monitors, and I'm constantly referring to everything and cycling through everything. I'm |
| 296 | 00:51:00,960 --> 00:51:06,570 | looking at that all the whole time I'm talking to you when I was doing those live sessions and calling the market live. And I'm doing it with Witter and |
| 297 | 00:51:06,570 --> 00:51:14,700 | saying this is what you're looking for. This is what you're looking for there. I'm constantly getting information and Intel, referring to these levels, while |
| 298 | 00:51:14,700 --> 00:51:23,580 | prices marching along and ticking away and not reacting the price, I'm anticipating it. And you as a student of mine, you're going to learn how to |
| 299 | 00:51:23,580 --> 00:51:33,000 | anticipate too, you're not reacting to price, retail traders react, you're essentially a breakout artist means you hope something happens. And when it |
| 300 | 00:51:33,000 --> 00:51:40,980 | does, then you can react to it. No, we're anticipating specific things that occur. And when it does, we're already there. We're meeting price rate when it |
| 301 | 00:51:40,980 --> 00:51:49,830 | does whatever we're looking for, we're buying when it's going down, and we're selling when it's going up. That is completely diametrically opposed to retail |
| 302 | 00:51:49,860 --> 00:52:01,140 | minded traders. And that's not to be condescending to anyone that trades with retail largely, it just means that there's a huge chasm separating what it is |
| 303 | 00:52:01,140 --> 00:52:11,070 | I'm teaching you to do, and how to interpret price action against everything else out there. It's light years beyond everything else, because this is the |
| 304 | 00:52:11,070 --> 00:52:18,690 | market. This is exactly what the markets doing every single day. And this is why I'm accurate. This is why you see me call it beforehand. And it happens and my |
| 305 | 00:52:18,690 --> 00:52:26,580 | students have learned from me, and they're doing it too. You see them out there doing well. They're not, you know, that make a nine to five type income, they're |
| 306 | 00:52:26,610 --> 00:52:36,000 | making six figure plus. And if you want to learn how to read price action, my way of doing it, it's going to take a lot of effort, and you got to easy. But |
| 307 | 00:52:36,000 --> 00:52:45,900 | the rules where it has to be at least 10 handles or 10 Points, points or handles in futures is the same thing. I'm an old guy, I've been around for a while. And |
| 308 | 00:52:46,050 --> 00:52:59,100 | when we talked about features or s&p, every fall handle move or for one point move, which is for texts, we always call them handles. And it's interchangeably |
| 309 | 00:52:59,100 --> 00:53:08,280 | used sometimes, depending on who I'm talking to, if I just been asked recently by someone was a handle, you know, what does that mean? It just means it's a |
| 310 | 00:53:08,280 --> 00:53:19,410 | four point move, or four ticks. But it criteria for a high probability trade in ICT silver bullet is in futures, it requires at least the potential to see a 10 |
| 311 | 00:53:19,410 --> 00:53:25,800 | handle run. Well, if we're trying to bite down here, and we're using this as the best case scenario. If we're trying to get filled there, |
| 312 | 00:53:26,940 --> 00:53:37,020 | all it needs to do is print 4147, even and the spread would fill you. So you could be long at 4147 and a quarter. If it goes up 10 handles, whereas 10 |
| 313 | 00:53:37,020 --> 00:53:47,070 | handles that's 4157 and a quarter, that would be right here. And we're not even outside the opening range gap, we're just seeing it at the high of The New Day |
| 314 | 00:53:47,070 --> 00:53:58,140 | opening gap. So that definitely is a high probability trade to be going long here because it offers opportunity to even get 10 points or handles before he |
| 315 | 00:53:58,140 --> 00:54:06,990 | even gets up to here, which is where we're trying to get to. So we can find profitability by taking by teleco Lee taking a partial entering here, taking a |
| 316 | 00:54:06,990 --> 00:54:16,800 | partial here. You can pyramid here. So you can go in like say for instance views like my model, go in with six contracts. I'm not suggesting you should trade |
| 317 | 00:54:16,800 --> 00:54:24,510 | with six contracts by the way, but if you're trying to pyramid, okay, or if you want to pillar pillar is like buying one contract, buying one more contract, |
| 318 | 00:54:24,690 --> 00:54:32,430 | selling one here, holding on and then selling your last one, then stop out because you will be trailing your stop loss stop loss would probably be right |
| 319 | 00:54:32,430 --> 00:54:40,830 | below this swing low once he got up into this area here. Because if it's going to reverse it's going to reverse there. But you don't want to just collapse it |
| 320 | 00:54:40,830 --> 00:54:47,280 | because it could have very easily ran up in here at the buy side. But it didn't do it. It came all the way back down until the low of that order block once |
| 321 | 00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:58,710 | more. Rad again Rhatigan rate to the high of that old tuesday wednesday opening range gap. It's that shaded area here. See it it's a ghost image and it drops |
| 322 | 00:54:58,710 --> 00:55:09,990 | back down to the low The New Day opening gap and then consequent encroachment of the opening range gap of Tuesday, Wednesday, here's the high of it, that shaded |
| 323 | 00:55:09,990 --> 00:55:20,850 | area and this is the low that trade down to midpoint of it, and then accumulate more, ascending up to the high of New Day opening gap Wednesday, Thursday. |
| 324 | 00:55:21,060 --> 00:55:37,440 | That's this orange shaded area. And then moving into the afternoon. This is a 15 second chart of what I just showed, on the opening range, and New Day opening |
| 325 | 00:55:37,440 --> 00:55:50,880 | gap and the silver bullet between 10 and 11. There's, I've read a guy he left a comment on someone else's video. I'll just kind of paraphrase it saying the |
| 326 | 00:55:50,880 --> 00:56:02,040 | thing that's wrong or the the thing that's not cool about ICT is it's complicated. And I'm the only one that can use it. And I pull out Silver Bullets |
| 327 | 00:56:02,070 --> 00:56:13,380 | Over here over there. And it's like, WTF comment. Just a feels overwhelmed. Okay. And I don't know if it was a guy that was genuinely sincere, just saying |
| 328 | 00:56:13,380 --> 00:56:20,400 | that I'm frustrated, and I want to do it, but it's just too hard. Or if it's someone that's being a typical troll when, you know, whatever. But if you had |
| 329 | 00:56:20,400 --> 00:56:31,770 | that same mindset, okay. I stripped price down below a one minute chart. I've said this, I talked about this in the Twitter spaces. Before I actually did the |
| 330 | 00:56:32,010 --> 00:56:42,000 | silver bullet teaching, I taught silver bullet in a Twitter space, which is like a podcast, vocally just talked about what it is and how it looks in word forms. |
| 331 | 00:56:42,600 --> 00:56:50,340 | Then I taught the lesson, the lecture, that's just an introduction. There's a lot more to it. And I'll build on that as we go throughout the year. I'm doing |
| 332 | 00:56:50,370 --> 00:57:02,310 | actually here. But you know, what timeframe do you look for your where's it form, it's a fair value gap that forms in between 10 o'clock, and 11, it trades |
| 333 | 00:57:02,340 --> 00:57:09,810 | into a fair value gap, it does not need to be a fair value gap that forms between 10 o'clock and five o'clock, it could be a fair pay gap that was prior |
| 334 | 00:57:09,810 --> 00:57:26,190 | to 10 o'clock. That entry is occurring in that window of 10am, New York local time to 11 o'clock, New York little time. Everything that I showed on the one |
| 335 | 00:57:26,190 --> 00:57:34,980 | minute chart, let me go back up and show you this again. Look right here. This is a one minute chart of the silver bullet here. And this is the silver bowl |
| 336 | 00:57:34,980 --> 00:57:43,650 | here on a one minute chart. Okay, a lot of overlapping in here. And then finally it leaves the range and it creates this very gap. And it trades down into it and |
| 337 | 00:57:43,650 --> 00:57:55,260 | it runs away. Let's go into this information a little bit more detailed. And also I want to look at all this imbalance here. Okay, why is it going up to here |
| 338 | 00:57:55,710 --> 00:58:06,570 | and stopping? Look right here. Here's your order block here. It won't be in the past that beyond what's what's occurring in here. What is all that about? This |
| 339 | 00:58:06,570 --> 00:58:15,150 | is institutional order flow, you're not going to see it on a volume profile analysis. You're not going to see it on depth of market, you're not going to see |
| 340 | 00:58:15,150 --> 00:58:23,280 | it on a ladder, you're not going to see it on you level two data. All these things that you think makes you institutionally minded. It doesn't. It does not |
| 341 | 00:58:23,400 --> 00:58:32,400 | all that stuff can be spoofed. What I'm going to show you here is how it never surprises me. It never jumps off the chart and says I gotcha ICT, you didn't see |
| 342 | 00:58:32,400 --> 00:58:40,500 | that coming, did you? So think about what I'm showing you here, study this for a second. Pause the video. Okay, really pause the video study everything you see |
| 343 | 00:58:40,500 --> 00:58:49,290 | here and all this movement down. And where these silver bullet entries are occurring. And where price reaches up here. It doesn't look obvious here but |
| 344 | 00:58:49,290 --> 00:58:59,760 | when you drop down to a 15 second chart, which I'm about to do now, so if you're not ready, and you're still looking at don't play it keep it paused. So as you |
| 345 | 00:58:59,760 --> 00:59:10,110 | never pause the video, you're missing out on an opportunity to learn. But back to that 15 second chart. Here's that sell side and balanced by side and |
| 346 | 00:59:10,110 --> 00:59:21,540 | efficiency. Okay. All this rundown here and into this low we create these relatively equal lows to go down below at shallowly. That little shallow run |
| 347 | 00:59:21,540 --> 00:59:32,070 | tells me that any retracement higher is this going to be one more drive lower. And what does it do? It runs right back up to some random level right know that |
| 348 | 00:59:32,280 --> 00:59:47,070 | fair Vega right there. See that. It's also a mitigation block, which is this down close candle. high, low, lower high. It's a reversal of sorts on my breaker |
| 349 | 00:59:47,070 --> 00:59:57,510 | pattern. So typically a breaker would be a high, low higher high. A mitigation block is the down close candle in between the high and lower high. So it's |
| 350 | 00:59:57,510 --> 01:00:09,480 | trading up into that there and bounce there, and then drives harder. So that's taking out the cell stops here. So it engineered it went low, low created retail |
| 351 | 01:00:09,480 --> 01:00:17,700 | minded support, they're gonna buy it, it rallies up, they feel rewarded and then comes back down, which they may or may not have been stopped, it doesn't matter. |
| 352 | 01:00:17,700 --> 01:00:26,910 | Now if they didn't have stock, they're really going to put a stop loss there. Right below those lows in that low in that low and the CFO wham. spends time |
| 353 | 01:00:26,910 --> 01:00:37,020 | down here, trapping traders, then it rallies takes out a short term high. That's a shift in market structure creates a fair value get on the one minute chart but |
| 354 | 01:00:37,020 --> 01:00:46,920 | look closer now. This is a 15 second chart. ICT Come on, bro, seriously. Like, I'm not looking at 15 Second charts, okay, this lesson isn't for you. I've |
| 355 | 01:00:46,920 --> 01:00:55,680 | already taught you how to trade using the model 2022 You don't need this. You don't need this to make my stuff work. But if you want to be a freak, okay, if |
| 356 | 01:00:55,680 --> 01:01:04,110 | you want to be a freak in technical analysis, slash that, if you want to be a frickin technical science, because that's what I teach. Okay, we do technical |
| 357 | 01:01:04,110 --> 01:01:17,700 | science here. It's not contrived. It's not conjecture, it's not guesswork. We have this down to the smallest degree. And the highest degree of precision. Look |
| 358 | 01:01:17,700 --> 01:01:28,470 | closer, inside of that shaded area to look at a chart is a fair value gap. But you don't see that as a fair value gap. You're on a 15 second chart. In my |
| 359 | 01:01:28,530 --> 01:01:38,340 | charts, in my monitors, I have one monitor that I use in Adelbert as a intraday matrix where I'm toggling through constantly, just by a couple keystrokes, I'm |
| 360 | 01:01:38,670 --> 01:01:49,350 | going through five minute, four minute, three minute, two minute, one minute 45 Second 32nd 15 Second five second, I'm looking at charts just like that, as I'm |
| 361 | 01:01:49,770 --> 01:01:58,230 | looking at key levels. So when we're in this institutional area here, where orders would be resting what kind of order sell side liquidity, then it rallies |
| 362 | 01:01:58,230 --> 01:02:04,890 | up, and we have a shift in market structure. Wonderful because I'm expecting that boss that liquidity, which is outside the scope of this chart here. |
| 363 | 01:02:04,890 --> 01:02:13,260 | Remember, it's above. That's where I think it's gonna go. I told you that last night, this one minute imbalance here that shaded it doesn't look like a fair |
| 364 | 01:02:13,260 --> 01:02:24,810 | pay gap here. But what is overlapping on a 15 second chart, that's still useful using pdra Matrix taught you in the core content on my YouTube channel, to down |
| 365 | 01:02:24,810 --> 01:02:32,970 | close candles as a bullish order block, extend that to the to the right, we're digging down into that order block, they're rallying and coming back down into |
| 366 | 01:02:32,970 --> 01:02:43,170 | it again, there's an order block and a fair Vega. That right there. If I didn't buy it on this pass here, I would see that and be gone long. And I would buy it |
| 367 | 01:02:43,170 --> 01:02:51,210 | again here and adding more to it and pyramid. That's why you see me sometimes entering? And so like, why is he buying like, if I'm going long, for instance, |
| 368 | 01:02:51,540 --> 01:03:01,980 | I'll do executions and I'm recording it. I'll go long buy it. And then a couple seconds later, I'm buying it again. And it's like, what is he doing? It's this, |
| 369 | 01:03:02,730 --> 01:03:11,700 | I'm buying it here, I'm buying it again, and I'm adding it here. So it's like six contracts long, four contracts long, one contract, or I'm sorry, six |
| 370 | 01:03:11,700 --> 01:03:12,300 | contracts. |
| 371 | 01:03:14,130 --> 01:03:22,410 | Three, and then one, that's my 10 contract. So it's six hair for that's three, and there's no hair for three the I can do it's one contract. So that's my |
| 372 | 01:03:22,410 --> 01:03:34,290 | standard 10 lat model where I build in. If I think the trade is good, I'll do that. Well, if I don't see the lower timeframes doing this, I'm not going to do |
| 373 | 01:03:34,290 --> 01:03:43,290 | those real close proximity entries where I'm showing you multiple entries generally in the same area, I'm dialing in with a very small sub one minute |
| 374 | 01:03:43,290 --> 01:03:52,890 | contract basis. And it looks just like this, but you're not seeing because you don't have a 15 second chart, or less than one minute trading View offers that. |
| 375 | 01:03:53,220 --> 01:04:03,210 | I don't know what program or package, you have to have to get that. But I'm not the highest level membership there. So I think it's like 600 bucks a year. But |
| 376 | 01:04:03,210 --> 01:04:09,630 | if they do the same thing they did last year on Black Friday, you can get it really cheaper than that. But if you don't want to spend six hours to have this |
| 377 | 01:04:09,630 --> 01:04:15,210 | kind of information, or you can't get it somewhere else, and you don't want to pay for the data, forget trading, because if you don't want to invest in the |
| 378 | 01:04:15,210 --> 01:04:25,950 | tools to be able to do these types of things to this degree of precision, you're probably not going to do well. Because there's no free way in this. Okay? I may |
| 379 | 01:04:25,950 --> 01:04:32,730 | be teaching for free, but it's still going to cost you something, it's going to cost you time, which is very expensive. It's going to it's going to cost you |
| 380 | 01:04:32,730 --> 01:04:42,660 | money in resources in some kind of platform. And if you want to have the degree of precision that I teach and make available to everyone, with my teachings and |
| 381 | 01:04:42,660 --> 01:04:49,080 | lectures, this is one of those things you're going to have to reach into. You can't just simply look at just a one minute chart and think you've got |
| 382 | 01:04:49,080 --> 01:04:58,980 | everything that I've taught because I'm below a one minute chart on everything. I trade, everything. And I'm looking at these types of things. Here. Same thing |
| 383 | 01:04:58,980 --> 01:05:06,060 | here with that silver bullet up Here, this range is a one minute fair value got, you can't see a fair break up in here. You see this down close candle there, |
| 384 | 01:05:06,060 --> 01:05:15,300 | don't you. So when it's trading down into that, that's where I'm going long. I'd be buying that order block right there. And then as it was dropping down, if it |
| 385 | 01:05:15,300 --> 01:05:27,150 | would have hit that, again, that shaded area right on here, on the 15. Second chart, I would add to it there. In the market runs up, look look a little bit |
| 386 | 01:05:27,150 --> 01:05:39,660 | closer now. Looking at inefficiency, all this movement down here, there's pockets where there has only one candle passing through. We had this small one |
| 387 | 01:05:39,660 --> 01:05:48,900 | in here. We have a small one right in here. All of this here, one candle pass through one candle pass through here and right in here. This one here is |
| 388 | 01:05:48,900 --> 01:05:58,380 | essentially, repriced, to right there. And it's rebounds because it's lifted here, here. So this was of no interest to me. This one gets filled in and |
| 389 | 01:05:58,380 --> 01:06:08,760 | repriced and bounced because it's back and forth inside of this area here. So now that's bounce. If we rally above that high, then we should have no problem |
| 390 | 01:06:08,760 --> 01:06:17,880 | going higher and not ever need to go back below that high. What I just said, is huge. Because everything over here is telling you the narrative that needs to be |
| 391 | 01:06:18,180 --> 01:06:27,060 | displayed in price delivery. Once we have this back and forth movement, that means it's efficiently than balanced. Once it leaves it, that means goes above |
| 392 | 01:06:27,060 --> 01:06:43,110 | it right there. It never needs to go back below this high, does it not until it goes above and rebalances into this area here. This range here is this price |
| 393 | 01:06:43,110 --> 01:06:57,900 | formation, it reaches up into that min then pulls back Lord. This range in here, it trades up into here, find support at it and then rallies above, it does not |
| 394 | 01:06:57,900 --> 01:07:07,350 | need to go back below this high. It's acting as support rallies up again, as I taught last night, if you want to understand what classic support resistance |
| 395 | 01:07:07,380 --> 01:07:19,050 | resistance is and what it means for you to look at it in charts, you need this in depth, you don't want to be a technical science major. You want to see simple |
| 396 | 01:07:19,050 --> 01:07:27,270 | trading, then you look at these inefficiencies around levels, you would expect a support resistance. And if you see the things I'm teaching you here, you'll |
| 397 | 01:07:27,270 --> 01:07:33,660 | probably be safe and trusting that as a support or resistance in me or be monitored percent accurate. This means that if you're trading with Support |
| 398 | 01:07:33,660 --> 01:07:44,520 | Resistance ideas, if these inefficiencies are to the left of the chart are balanced, not just repriced, to when they're balanced, that means up and down |
| 399 | 01:07:44,520 --> 01:07:53,520 | price delivery and then it leaves that range, then it becomes a real balanced price range and then you can trust that it won't go back through it it'll act as |
| 400 | 01:07:54,630 --> 01:08:04,620 | either support if it's going higher or resistance if it's going lower. You can see that area here. They work this level here back and forth it's bounced once |
| 401 | 01:08:04,620 --> 01:08:13,500 | it leaves it so all I need to do is see it trade above it. That high right there it gets traded above it comes down never sees it again until we get to this area |
| 402 | 01:08:13,500 --> 01:08:23,940 | here where this is inefficient and it's been rebalanced. This candle here trades down and opens trades down up and leaves that range is the only exposure for |
| 403 | 01:08:23,940 --> 01:08:34,440 | inefficiency because this candle went up this candle went down this candle opened when higher and then back down so this range here and higher to that high |
| 404 | 01:08:34,470 --> 01:08:46,770 | is it's balanced the inefficiency is this candle right there. So that's why it only went right up to that to the tick two candles and then plummeted down to |
| 405 | 01:08:46,800 --> 01:08:55,170 | New Day opening gap low and then down into which is a little bit to the left and start to the right of this it's not in the scope of this fractal being shown but |
| 406 | 01:08:55,170 --> 01:09:09,270 | it's the consequent portrait of the Tuesday Wednesday opening range gap All right here's a one minute chart on the E Mini s&p afternoon session between two |
| 407 | 01:09:09,270 --> 01:09:18,420 | o'clock and three this is your Pm session Silver Bullet now here's where we seen the price rally up and go into our objective This is the high side liquidity |
| 408 | 01:09:18,420 --> 01:09:27,030 | pool I told you that it would reach into last night before we got there today. It did so during the two o'clock hour it ran through it and then broke hard |
| 409 | 01:09:27,120 --> 01:09:36,450 | lower leaving this inefficiency right there the market trades up into it that would be a short for silver bullet because we hit our objective we broke down |
| 410 | 01:09:36,840 --> 01:09:47,310 | and we could look for this inefficiency here and it has a real gap see that this friends and neighbors is a real liquidity void that is a real liquidity void. |
| 411 | 01:09:47,640 --> 01:09:58,260 | This is not a liquidity void. This is not a liquidity void. Okay. This is a liquidity void where this candle is stopped and this candle started. That |
| 412 | 01:09:58,260 --> 01:10:09,150 | separation there is no price state of being printed at all, no trades existed there. So when it did this inefficiency lower is a fair value. Yep, yes. But |
| 413 | 01:10:09,150 --> 01:10:20,130 | it's a city sells on unbalanced by sudden efficiency, that means it's lacking what by side, that means a candle or candles must go up in price delivery. In |
| 414 | 01:10:20,130 --> 01:10:31,920 | that range, we see it returned back to here. And this will be a short expecting to go back down into this inefficiency and trade to that real liquidity void. It |
| 415 | 01:10:31,920 --> 01:10:40,080 | more time pumps up into here doesn't even get back up to the first silver bullet February gap breaks. Again, there's a small little gap in here. And I would |
| 416 | 01:10:40,080 --> 01:10:52,110 | counsel you to take a look at this. And you might see this here and think, Oh, this is one that would have been potential entry to. But would I enter there No. |
| 417 | 01:10:53,070 --> 01:11:01,620 | While you're you get the benefit of hindsight, you can see that now. Look what it's done, it took cell side out here. And then right back up in this is too |
| 418 | 01:11:01,650 --> 01:11:11,760 | close in proximity. So it could run above here to take out by side. In that get this high. So I would want to go into a lower timeframe. And look for something |
| 419 | 01:11:11,760 --> 01:11:19,860 | a little bit higher than this or steady and see if there's anything more in this area here as another fear that you got that may not be seen or visual. In this |
| 420 | 01:11:19,890 --> 01:11:27,120 | one minute chart, I'll drop down into a lower timeframe, we'll go into a 10 second chart and show you what that looks like in a minute. But the market |
| 421 | 01:11:27,120 --> 01:11:38,340 | breaks lower. And does in fact trade back down into this inefficiency in rebalances. Price Action rated debt real liquidity void, trading down into 4153. |
| 422 | 01:11:38,730 --> 01:11:47,580 | Three quarters. Now the question is does it offer 10 handles or 10 points in range for potential high probability shorting because we've already hit our |
| 423 | 01:11:47,580 --> 01:11:56,130 | objective, the Basa liquidity pool. Remember that was the target we had last night I gave you that it hit that and hit it during the pm Session Two o'clock |
| 424 | 01:11:56,430 --> 01:12:07,830 | on a Thursday. Thursday's can generally not always generally give you the opposite end of a range. Since we've been bullish all week, chances are we can |
| 425 | 01:12:07,830 --> 01:12:15,660 | create the high of the week in Thursday, doesn't mean it will always this many times, it'll give you trades that are very short term and give you this type of |
| 426 | 01:12:15,660 --> 01:12:24,780 | movement here. We eventually tried to go back up again. But it's enough to be paid on it right. So we're both 10 handle range. Does it offer that? Well, if |
| 427 | 01:12:24,780 --> 01:12:34,920 | we're going short here, at this candles, high 4169. All it needs to do is book in print 4169 in the quarter, and the spread should fill you being short. It |
| 428 | 01:12:34,920 --> 01:12:43,350 | does more than that. But this year, we're going to assume this is not a real trade here. This is just for you annotation purposes that we can do the same |
| 429 | 01:12:43,350 --> 01:12:51,000 | thing in your journaling. This is where you would be filled, this is how much heat you would have taken or draw down. And then the market breaks lower. And as |
| 430 | 01:12:51,000 --> 01:12:52,650 | the market trades into |
| 431 | 01:12:54,270 --> 01:13:03,720 | the lower end or consequent encroachment of this inefficiency, there'll be about right here, the spread would probably be required on this candle here. Notice |
| 432 | 01:13:03,720 --> 01:13:12,300 | I'm not drawing that on the lowest candle which is impractical. I'm showing you where this how you want to do your own back testing, annotate where you would |
| 433 | 01:13:12,300 --> 01:13:18,480 | have been filled, do not try to pick the highest high and the lowest low, that's not going to do anything for you. That's not going to make you a super trader. |
| 434 | 01:13:18,660 --> 01:13:25,170 | Okay, it's not gonna make you that precise, because you see it in your charts annotated that way. Be realistic and practical when you're doing your back |
| 435 | 01:13:25,170 --> 01:13:31,740 | testing, where your orders would have been filled. Using the logic and the rules I'm giving you that's what you energy. And then that way you can study with |
| 436 | 01:13:31,740 --> 01:13:41,670 | realistic expectations. How much heat or drawdown your entries would have incurred, you can see that that's not the actual high, a little bit more heat is |
| 437 | 01:13:41,670 --> 01:13:51,510 | given before it drops down. Now, right away, I'm reading your mind. I'm getting an impression now that you're thinking, why wouldn't you expect it to completely |
| 438 | 01:13:51,510 --> 01:14:02,280 | go all the way up here and close it in? Well, what did this run here do? It ran the target that I gave you last night. It ran by liquidity. And it did so |
| 439 | 01:14:02,280 --> 01:14:11,610 | energetically. And then we created this gap here. So this is a blow off type move is kind of a capitulation. I'm not suggesting that we've made the high |
| 440 | 01:14:12,690 --> 01:14:23,400 | trading it and showing you with the expectation that we can treat it that way. And this is much like a breakaway gap. This gap should not completely close it. |
| 441 | 01:14:23,940 --> 01:14:33,090 | Notice that it came back up later on. But it didn't completely close it in the left some portion of it open still right there. But we only need 10 handles to |
| 442 | 01:14:33,090 --> 01:14:42,540 | see if it's going to offer us opportunity between two o'clock and three o'clock. The range entry from 4169 Even which would be this candles hot here. If we were |
| 443 | 01:14:42,540 --> 01:14:52,080 | getting short there. 10 handles lower or 10 points lower, which would be 4159 4159 is down here. We haven't even taken out that low to get 4159 yet and |
| 444 | 01:14:52,080 --> 01:15:04,620 | we're aiming for this. So yes, it will be high probability tree. So 40 169 to 4159 Ain't there's 10 handles, you can book five, take a partial at 10. And see |
| 445 | 01:15:04,620 --> 01:15:13,650 | if you can get down into this closure of this inefficiency. But I would aim just for that real liquidity void, I wouldn't mean for the low, even though it did |
| 446 | 01:15:13,650 --> 01:15:23,190 | offer it, I would be closing right there as it got into that. So I'd be out there or best case scenario, that one and I would miss any further down movement |
| 447 | 01:15:23,190 --> 01:15:35,040 | here. And and I would be not engaging at all in any of this. Everything I just showed you, now we're looking at on a 10 second chart. So here's the |
| 448 | 01:15:35,040 --> 01:15:46,590 | inefficiency. You can see it's one single candle here. And then your fill would be there. That was where your duty filled. And this is the heat you took on or |
| 449 | 01:15:46,590 --> 01:15:54,930 | how much it would be losing against the open position short of up close candle here. This is a bearish order block market trades lower see this inefficiency |
| 450 | 01:15:54,960 --> 01:16:07,560 | that did not exist on a one minute chart. This is the woman affair ageia after takeoff, below this low here, went down and then ripped higher back up into the |
| 451 | 01:16:07,560 --> 01:16:19,200 | order block. And look at the inefficiency here. See that went into it touch the order block traded sideways, a little bit broke down back into the high of the |
| 452 | 01:16:19,200 --> 01:16:34,350 | fear Vega and then reprice lower. Then we started respecting that women fair value gap here. And then we left it breakaway gap moves lower, digs into that |
| 453 | 01:16:34,410 --> 01:16:44,340 | real liquidity void, which was about halfway on that pink area. If you look, look at all these levels here. And I showed you this chart like this. You'd be |
| 454 | 01:16:44,340 --> 01:16:55,470 | like, Man, what is going on here? What is all this stuff on the chart? It's insight that I see we are having on my chart, I have these levels, annotated. |
| 455 | 01:16:55,740 --> 01:17:08,850 | And as I'm watching price I'm constant referring to Okay. The 41 60.75 level is the high of the Wednesday, Thursday opening range gap. So as we're trading down, |
| 456 | 01:17:08,880 --> 01:17:16,770 | I'm expecting Okay, I want to see how it trades there it hits it comes back up fills in a little bit of a gap. That's normal, strong break lower. Okay, as it's |
| 457 | 01:17:16,770 --> 01:17:25,680 | breaking strong. I'm looking at this ghost image of the previous opening range gap. I want to see does it dig into that? Yes, it does. And also, it digs into |
| 458 | 01:17:25,680 --> 01:17:33,030 | the new day opening gap. So all these levels I'm watching, I want to see you go a little bit more. And we'll see a little bit more every time it reaches into |
| 459 | 01:17:33,030 --> 01:17:42,240 | one of these levels where another PDF reader may have an interest in anticipating some measure of retracement. And if there's an inefficiency just |
| 460 | 01:17:42,240 --> 01:17:51,660 | formed, I'm expecting it to reach back up into that like it's doing here, here and then digging down deeper. And this is where I would have had my exit as it |
| 461 | 01:17:51,660 --> 01:18:03,600 | traded into that real liquidity void where that separation in between the two candles, which is right there. So all this congestion in here that's being shown |
| 462 | 01:18:03,870 --> 01:18:16,320 | on a 10 second chart all through here. But this level of detail, you can't glean that from a simple one minute chart. You don't need this to be profitable. You |
| 463 | 01:18:16,320 --> 01:18:26,520 | don't need this to find Silver Bullet trades that work. But I will find trades that won't exist in a one minute chart by using sub one minute I mean something |
| 464 | 01:18:26,520 --> 01:18:34,020 | less than one minute. And I'm uncomfortable with that you may not be comfortable just because I can do it just because I like it. Just because I've been doing it |
| 465 | 01:18:34,380 --> 01:18:43,020 | does not mean that I'm twisting your arm saying that you have to do it too. All these things work. You don't even need to be trading on intraday charts, you can |
| 466 | 01:18:43,020 --> 01:18:51,510 | be trading with a daily chart, just I mean, you don't need to do intraday, I teach intraday, because it gives me a lot of examples and a lot of opportunity |
| 467 | 01:18:51,600 --> 01:19:02,160 | to present things that would take a long time to manifest on higher timeframe daily and weekly charts. So because it fits my personality, I'm comfortable with |
| 468 | 01:19:02,160 --> 01:19:13,560 | making high frequency decisions. And high frequency trading is done on these sub one minute candlesticks. They're using these types of inefficiencies and points |
| 469 | 01:19:13,560 --> 01:19:21,840 | of reference for their algorithm. They're only shorting when the market goes up. And they're only going long when the market goes down. And they're reading |
| 470 | 01:19:21,840 --> 01:19:29,430 | inside of all this. Remember, just because it's doing all these fair value gaps here doesn't mean anything just went up to this order block here doesn't mean |
| 471 | 01:19:29,430 --> 01:19:38,490 | anything apart from the fact that we went into that buyside liquidity, which is the level I said we would run in to which we did here, two o'clock up here. Once |
| 472 | 01:19:38,490 --> 01:19:47,220 | it did that and it broke aggressively right there. I want to see that to get back below that high, which is this blue line. It does. It breaks down below it |
| 473 | 01:19:47,400 --> 01:19:56,700 | overshoots this inefficiency even on a 10 second chart, it digs down into the volume and bounce rate there. There's no bodies overlapping it's just the wick |
| 474 | 01:19:58,170 --> 01:20:09,060 | boom it hits that then runs one more time backup into two minute fair Vega, which is here, boom, boom three times this is the three drives pattern, very |
| 475 | 01:20:09,060 --> 01:20:18,810 | classic pattern then breaks lower in efficiency, I like that one, that could be a short, I will be adding to that my stop would be above here. Well, what |
| 476 | 01:20:18,810 --> 01:20:24,780 | happens if you would have got stopped at ICT, then I would have waited for something like this to occur later over here. Once it broke down and create |
| 477 | 01:20:24,780 --> 01:20:33,390 | another fear bag that I will be shorting there, and adding it just the way I was explained to here. So here's what I've just taught you tonight. Obviously, I |
| 478 | 01:20:33,390 --> 01:20:40,980 | taught you a greater degree of precision and why I do my entries where you see me entering them on a one minute chart or a five minute chart, it may not seem |
| 479 | 01:20:40,980 --> 01:20:51,870 | logical to you. But I'm looking at these lower one minute and less charts. And I'm looking at all the inefficiencies, the order blocks. The point of reference |
| 480 | 01:20:51,870 --> 01:21:02,190 | that I'm showing you here, it is just an introduction to it. Every PD array that I've taught plus the ones that I will never teach you, I'm looking for them. You |
| 481 | 01:21:02,190 --> 01:21:12,240 | don't need all that stuff. But I can teach you how to do this. But you have to be willing to listen, you have to go into the charts and look for it. Silver |
| 482 | 01:21:12,240 --> 01:21:25,290 | Bullets are simply fair value gaps that exist inside of a 60 minute window. There is not a one trick pony to silver bullet. There's a lot of ways to get |
| 483 | 01:21:25,290 --> 01:21:33,120 | into a silver bullet trade. There's more than one silver bullet for me. That's why I said there's always one for me, you might look at the chart I've seen |
| 484 | 01:21:33,120 --> 01:21:38,160 | people already say, you know, I looked at this, it didn't form, you know this, this doesn't work. He said it performs every day, you're not looking at these |
| 485 | 01:21:38,160 --> 01:21:48,390 | timeframes. They're there every day, every single day, between 10 o'clock and 11am between two o'clock and three o'clock. And between three o'clock and four |
| 486 | 01:21:48,390 --> 01:21:57,510 | o'clock during the London session, every single day. But you have to know where it's drawing to. We were expecting it to draw above to get the buy side here. |
| 487 | 01:21:57,510 --> 01:22:04,890 | It's done that. So once it's done that, what are we expecting, it's probably going to pull back and offer some measure of retracement that's reasonable. And |
| 488 | 01:22:05,250 --> 01:22:14,910 | it gives it that's all you need. Any movement does it offer you 10 handles, if you're trying to get five handles, which is what the model teaches. |
| 489 | 01:22:16,380 --> 01:22:25,920 | This is how you get it every single day, you'll lose sometimes I lose, sometimes I get stopped out sometimes. But if I get stopped out in the criteria is still |
| 490 | 01:22:25,920 --> 01:22:36,150 | existing in the price charts. And nothing really changed. I just had a new run of you poor execution on my stock placement. Or maybe my execution entry wasn't |
| 491 | 01:22:36,150 --> 01:22:44,100 | as pristine as I'd like it to be. And I get stopped out. If the trade still is viable, I will reenter. And you've seen me do that also in my execution videos. |
| 492 | 01:22:44,430 --> 01:22:52,230 | So just because I get stopped out or you get stopped out if the trade still exists in the framework, and the logic is still there. Look for the next signal |
| 493 | 01:22:52,260 --> 01:23:05,250 | to get in on it. You don't need to chase it, just gonna need one minute or less timeframes. And wait for your setup. Think about it like this. If I saw this |
| 494 | 01:23:05,250 --> 01:23:13,050 | order block, say for instance, I was looking at this area here and I hadn't been from the charts until there I see the order block if I want to see it reject |
| 495 | 01:23:13,050 --> 01:23:21,840 | that it does. So we create this little fear Bay get right there. When it ran up into there, and it's the high that I said I will want to see the buy side taken |
| 496 | 01:23:21,840 --> 01:23:29,640 | on that right there's an entry for me. I don't need to be in it here. I don't need to be in it over here. I can be in it right there. And that's not chasing |
| 497 | 01:23:29,640 --> 01:23:41,520 | price. I can be using this order block right here. Because we haven't even taken out this low right here. We have a closed candle. This is all during 10 seconds, |
| 498 | 01:23:41,550 --> 01:23:50,340 | I'm watching all this stuff. This up close candle when we traded away from it came back up into here, as this candle is hitting it, I can be short right there |
| 499 | 01:23:50,970 --> 01:24:00,330 | in my stock will be above the fair value gap candle here, right there must have will be right there. That's Ultra tight. And I could pyramid more. I can be |
| 500 | 01:24:00,330 --> 01:24:11,430 | shorting here, pyramid more here. Because I haven't taken out a structured low that would see acceleration for my trade. And I'm way down here before I get to |
| 501 | 01:24:11,430 --> 01:24:21,450 | my target. So in the scheme of things I'm entering here in my targets here. So this is inception. This is terminus, midpoint or equilibrium is right here. So I |
| 502 | 01:24:21,450 --> 01:24:30,810 | can absolutely take this trade because it's above equilibrium or still in a short term premium. Ooh, see that? That's institutional order flow folks, has |
| 503 | 01:24:30,810 --> 01:24:38,100 | nothing to do with volume profile has nothing to do it. Level two data, Dom's depth of market, none of that stuff. You don't need any of that stuff. But you |
| 504 | 01:24:38,100 --> 01:24:48,870 | do need to know where price is drawing to. Where is it going to next? It's going there for stops or it's going there because it needs to reprice and re deliver |
| 505 | 01:24:48,900 --> 01:24:55,200 | where inefficiency exists. That's it. That's all it's doing. If it's not going to do either one of those things, guess what it's gonna do? It's gonna go |
| 506 | 01:24:55,200 --> 01:25:05,070 | sideways and you can't make money in there it is. So that's gonna be it for this week hopefully you've learned something this week and enjoy your weekend be safe |
| 507 | 01:25:05,580 --> 01:25:09,810 | and I'll touch base with you again on Tuesday and I'll talk to you then be safe |