ICT YT - 2023-05-25 - Forex and Spooz Market Review Wednesday May 24 2023

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-05-26 16:39

Outline

00:00 - What’s your favorite song? 

- What to expect on the show.
- What to watch on the podcast.

01:13 - Welcome back. 

- Welcome back to the show.
- Take a look at the risk disclaimer.

02:27 - Daily Chart: Dollar Index. 

- Dollar index, eurodollar and mini s and p
- Daily chart of the dollar index.

04:39 - Immediate rebalance is a powerful tool. 

- Immediate rebalance and where the markets go.
- Weekly bearish order block opening level.
- Daily and hourly charts of euro and dollar.
- Daily chart of euro/dollar.

08:54 - Time of 10 to 11 am. 

- Am session silver bullet trade, fair value gap.
- Daily chart of emini s and p.

11:15 - What’s going on in the market now. 

- The fear narrative and how it will play out.
- The short-term premium chart.

13:43 - What is a 5 minute chart? -. 

- The five minute chart for trading futures.
- The turning point here at noon.
- The one minute chart and how to read it.
- The intraday matrix.

18:52 - When the market tries to back up into the order block, it’s not just because we’re going into an order block. 

- How the market reacts to a short order block.
- How to parlay a short position.

20:34 - Is it a viable trade to take that? 

- Viable trade below the 4120 level.
- The silver bullet trade.

22:30 - What’s going on in the market. 

- No obvious inefficiency on the five minute chart.
- Market structure shift in the market structure.
- Shift in market structure after 12 PM.
- Daily and weekly candle analysis.

Transcript

00:00:00,000 --> 00:01:22,710 ICT: Hi. Welcome back folks, it's gonna be a brief one here today take a look at this risk disclaimer before we begin.
00:02:27,780 --> 00:02:34,890 All right, so we are going to go over the dollar index, Euro dollar, and E Mini s&p again today
00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:54,630 so yesterday evening, I did a live stream, you guys can find that recording on my YouTube channel, every time I do a live stream, it will be added to the 2023
00:02:55,140 --> 00:03:09,120 mentorship playlist. So you can find that there. If you want to look at the tab on my YouTube channel that says live. It'll be the one prior to this one. So if
00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:17,580 you have not watched that one from last night, it would be better for you to watch it, then come back to this one. Because otherwise it's gonna seem like
00:03:17,580 --> 00:03:29,040 cherry picking right. So here's the weekly chart here on the dollar index. And I mentioned last night that I wanted to see price drop into the low and open
00:03:29,130 --> 00:03:38,730 specifically of this bullish candle. This is a bearish order block on the weekly chart for dollar index. We had that delivered today rather handsomely. And I
00:03:38,730 --> 00:03:49,260 mentioned that I would use this shaded area here which is this fair value gap between this candles low this candles high I would treat it as an inversion gap.
00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:57,360 Okay, or an inversion fair value gaps. In other words, it would act as support. And we'll take a closer look at that we dropped down lower timeframe now this is
10 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:07,590 our daily charts that same weekly bearish order block opening price, I'm extending it here on the daily chart. You can see how today for Wednesday, the
11 00:04:07,590 --> 00:04:22,440 24th of May 2023. You're gonna hear all the ambiance outside, by the way on that back. So you have the price opening and dropping down into Monday's high. Notice
12 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:33,630 that to open trade down into that shaded area told to deal with be treated as a inversion fair value got. So think of it as support. And more specifically, it
13 00:04:33,630 --> 00:04:42,750 trades to Monday's high. Now when it does this, it opens and trades down and goes right to that candles high. That is my immediate rebalance. Whenever that
14 00:04:42,750 --> 00:04:51,630 occurs. That is very powerful in terms of if you knew where the markets go and put it that way, you have to have that obviously going forward. So if you don't
15 00:04:51,630 --> 00:04:58,980 know what the draw on liquidity is or where the markets likely to reach to, whether it be for stops or inefficiency for the purposes of rebalancing or
16 00:04:58,980 --> 00:05:07,260 repricing The immediate rebalance isn't going to help you all that much. But if you do have a bias and I shared mine last night, I told you that we will be
17 00:05:07,260 --> 00:05:15,990 looking for this very level here. It traded down into Monday's high. That's the immediate rebound. And you can see the performance on the dollar index as a
18 00:05:15,990 --> 00:05:31,260 result. And subsequently, after doing so, that lends well to weakness on euro and other foreign currencies. But we have to take it one step further. Just keep
19 00:05:31,260 --> 00:05:42,810 that in mind that when it hits this level here, this weekly bearish order block opening price. That's important because that was my target. Now, I don't know
20 00:05:42,870 --> 00:05:52,530 what to expect going forward. I don't want to, I don't want to guess. And to be honest with you, I'm a little out of sorts today, because my order box or two
21 00:05:52,530 --> 00:06:01,920 dogs, Bella, she collapsed today. So we've been an emotional wreck. So I don't have a great deal of clarity to be able to focus on what I think is going to
22 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:15,450 happen. Going forward. So I'm just looking at what we've done today and reviewing that site. So again, we're not looking at the intraday for Dollar
23 00:06:15,450 --> 00:06:23,940 Index, you're welcome to do that on your own charts. But on the Eurodollar. The weekly chart here, I mentioned that we would likely draw towards this order
24 00:06:23,940 --> 00:06:35,010 block here. And we had a little bit of movement towards that today. Admittedly, it was a little bit of a wonky session. And it was up, man up and down. And
25 00:06:35,010 --> 00:06:45,900 we'll look into that. As we drop in the lower timeframe. Here's the daily chart. As I just mentioned, on the dollar index, we're seeing the mirror image on Euro.
26 00:06:46,290 --> 00:06:56,910 Okay, so our bias was bearish for euro in bullish for dollar. And we saw today we opened we traded up to Monday's low, which is an immediate rebalance, then
27 00:06:56,910 --> 00:07:06,930 price starts to go lower. Notice these two candles over here, their relative equal lows. And then we have the fair value gap here in a net weekly bullish
28 00:07:07,860 --> 00:07:18,630 order block. So I still believe in favor, this is a downside draw on Euro. And it can still do that even if the dollar index this trades in consolidation. If
29 00:07:18,630 --> 00:07:30,090 it does find some further weakness on the downside. I don't see anything bullish here for Euro is what I'm getting. On the hourly chart for Euro dollar, you can
30 00:07:30,090 --> 00:07:40,020 see that Monday low which has been shown here and it's the immediate rebalance here. intraday we had the high here in high here. So it's relatively equal
31 00:07:40,020 --> 00:07:49,200 highs. And that's going to be treated as retail resistance. Traders will see that and we did in fact get the sell side liquidity pool targeted. As I
32 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:59,850 mentioned last night in the live stream, that will be a downside draw, then it rallied up, bumped and engaged all the buy side liquidity there. And then again
33 00:07:59,850 --> 00:08:09,810 that Monday, immediate rebalance on Monday's low for Euro dollar this month was here. And then we had displacement to the downside. Now we have relative equal
34 00:08:09,810 --> 00:08:19,650 lows again, and I'm keeping this in the charts that way you can kind of like frame that 107 ish, big figure level is still a draw my opinion the downside?
35 00:08:20,820 --> 00:08:29,190 Watch this inefficiency here the sell side and balanced by side and efficiency and we have relatively cool highs. So it could step up in there and then maybe
36 00:08:29,190 --> 00:08:41,520 resume lower, it's kind of like what I would expect going into Asian to London. Okay, the five minute chart going right into the am session, you can see how the
37 00:08:41,520 --> 00:08:52,410 market ran up into the Monday low. This is immediate rebalance in the market, tapped it one more time. And then we broke a swing low here. So you had a shift
38 00:08:52,410 --> 00:09:01,740 in market structure. And then we have our time of 10 to 11. That's when we're looking for am session ICT Silver Bullet trade, we can use a fair value gap
39 00:09:02,010 --> 00:09:13,080 formed prior to 10am you would get this entry here. Or if you want to stick to only taking a fair value got inside of the hour window of 10am and 11am. New
40 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:25,080 York local time, you would get this Phil here. Both of them are good because the rejection block even if we don't get down below these lows here, the rejection
41 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:36,360 block is the lowest closing price and we learn this in my pdra matrix in the core content for my bestie mentorship was on YouTube channels. You can go find
42 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:50,580 it. If we have relative equal lows. And you're looking for a target. It's many times better to have a partial. No, it's getting out with a profit at the
43 00:09:50,580 --> 00:10:00,750 rejection block if you have multiple wicks like this, because it could just go down into this overflow here where the bodies are showing it and not ever really
44 00:10:01,020 --> 00:10:10,860 break below the wicks because the wicks do the damage. The bodies are where the the narrative is really derived. Okay, so it tells you the story, you can see
45 00:10:10,860 --> 00:10:17,310 that rejection block, which is the lowest of all these close, I'm sorry, all these down close candles, the lowest one with the lowest close is this one here.
46 00:10:17,310 --> 00:10:28,950 That's why it is my rejection block. You can see it does in fact reach for that. And that price for the rejection block is 1.07506. And you're up here in the 70
47 00:10:28,950 --> 00:10:43,800 twos or the 70 fours to get short on either one of these am session. It silver bullets. So is it more than 15 pips to offer a short? Yes. So it's significantly
48 00:10:44,490 --> 00:10:54,630 valid to take either one of these for a short. So again, like I said, it doesn't work in forex. Again. Here's another example that using the bias I shared last
49 00:10:54,630 --> 00:11:10,590 night. Emini, s&p, this is our daily chart, I mentioned that we would be bullish on E Mini s&p Until we lost the mean threshold of the order block here. And this
50 00:11:10,590 --> 00:11:19,920 fair value got as well. They weren't like discount arrays I was looking for. And I said if we lost that, we would go down and clear up some of the salsa
51 00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:29,280 liquidity. And I'll take into that chart and show you we're getting lower timeframes, but we're going into a holiday weekend. And there's a lot of
52 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:41,610 potential for things to go off. I'll just say it that way without saying anything more to folks that are familiar with me, when I talk on my twitter
53 00:11:41,610 --> 00:11:52,830 spaces, I do sometimes refer to tinfoil hat discussions. This is a long weekend, and senators have been offered satellite phones. So you read between the lines,
54 00:11:53,370 --> 00:12:06,660 there may be some urgency for price to move lower, and then sell that narrative. Okay, so at that fear narrative, and we do have relative equal lows here. Is
55 00:12:06,660 --> 00:12:15,660 there a sell side remaining there, I think we'll be doing tonight is most likely going into the opening range gap to close that in. And we'll take a look at that
56 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:19,950 just now. dropping into the lower timeframe. There's an hourly chart.
57 00:12:22,410 --> 00:12:31,410 These are the lows where the sell side would be raided. I said this video last night, so you can go watch it. 10,000 10,000 Have you watched me talk about
58 00:12:31,410 --> 00:12:42,960 live. And I said if we lost the mean threshold, and the fair value gap up here, it didn't offer support, this will be treated as inversion per Vega. You can see
59 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:50,460 we did go up, offered consequent encouragement here and then sold off attacking the sell side liquidity pool. And notice the bodies of the candles over here,
60 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:59,730 see where all the bodies are stopping rate at that low. So it's only going up to that liquidity and then coming back up into reaching for a short term premium.
61 00:13:02,970 --> 00:13:11,490 15 minute candlestick chart. There's buy sell equity pull up here. And this is this morning, we had news at 830. You had a sell side unbalanced buy side and
62 00:13:11,490 --> 00:13:21,420 efficiency here we traded up into that, and then displacement to the downside and clearing up all those sell stops resting below that 4120 level. In the
63 00:13:21,420 --> 00:13:32,160 afternoon, final hour of trading, you can see that we had a shift in market structure here came back down into a bullish here a gap. This is a bias on a
64 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:42,480 bounce, also an inefficiency. And order walk, then we start to see price rally back up into this wherever I go. But more specifically, it's into the opening
65 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:55,260 range gap. And I'll show you what that is. Here's a five minute chart. And for trading futures, there's a separation between sessions. And if you look at where
66 00:13:55,260 --> 00:14:06,480 we closed on Tuesday, and where we opened here, using the regular trading hours, tap on trading view. And this is how you get that information. Usually it'll say
67 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:18,420 eth, which is electronic trading hours, when you have it on a five minute chart or 15 women or whatever, you can toggle it and it'll show you the gap that would
68 00:14:18,420 --> 00:14:30,870 exist soon as we start trading the normal regular day session. So when we have that, that gap right there, it's likely to fill but when there's a strong bias
69 00:14:30,930 --> 00:14:39,930 and I was telling you what that bias was last night, I was suggesting that we would see what dollar higher up to that weekly bearish order blocks opening
70 00:14:39,930 --> 00:14:52,710 price that would send Euro dollar weaker and also it would put some willingness to see sell models come into the equities market. And we've seen yes, there's a
71 00:14:52,710 --> 00:15:03,480 gap here. And usually it's a good idea to avoid shorting when there's a gap like this but when there's a strong merited and play, it'll usually go for the
72 00:15:03,510 --> 00:15:13,590 objective, which is that 4120 level, again, watch last night's live stream. And that's where the cell stops. And the rate on those would be if we lost the mean
73 00:15:13,590 --> 00:15:24,330 threshold that I mentioned for ESL, the s&p market because we had that gap lower, and it was so close to getting down into take those stops, it just
74 00:15:24,330 --> 00:15:33,930 opened, rolled right down into it consolidated around here until noon. Why did it turn here? We'll get into that a little bit. But right now, just know that
75 00:15:33,930 --> 00:15:45,780 that turning point here at noon, is something I teach anyway. But there's a there's a confluence of events occurring there. Not only is it New York lunch,
76 00:15:46,320 --> 00:16:01,680 it's the midpoint of the day. And we had our objective met for the downside. And silver bullet, we'll look for that here. Inside of the one minute chart, that we
77 00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:11,100 have up close candle here, which is a bearish order block after it's been broken. So a shift in change in the state of delivery. The market trades back up
78 00:16:11,100 --> 00:16:21,780 into that here during the 10 to 11 o'clock window. So for a one minute chart, you might look at this and say, Well, I don't really see a fair value gap there,
79 00:16:21,780 --> 00:16:31,290 Michael, I don't, I don't see it. So therefore it doesn't work. No, if you listen to my twitter spaces, and I've also mentioned it in the live session last
80 00:16:31,290 --> 00:16:39,720 night, where I'm looking for inefficiencies and how I look at certain inefficiencies and know with a great deal of certainty that they won't fully
81 00:16:39,750 --> 00:16:49,620 completely fill in or rebalance, because of lower timeframes, offering multiple passes in between ranges, okay. And again, if you haven't watched it, last
82 00:16:49,620 --> 00:16:58,200 night's video, or live stream that's going to go right over your head, and it's going to be of no help to you. But when you watch that video from last night, I
83 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:07,920 go into great detail how to read real order flow. Where to take this insight in what we're looking at what the spiritual herblock in between 10 and 11 o'clock,
84 00:17:08,550 --> 00:17:17,310 as I mentioned in last night's session, and also many times in Twitter spaces, I don't look just at a one minute chart. So I have a intraday matrix where I look
85 00:17:17,310 --> 00:17:28,800 at 45 Second charts, 32nd charts, 15 second charts, five second charts in one second chart, I mean, every individual candle is as many as one second, five,
86 00:17:30,180 --> 00:17:43,140 second, 15 second, 32nd 45 second, so I go beneath it one minute timeframe. If I know that I have a very strong bias, which is that 4120 level again, pointing to
87 00:17:43,140 --> 00:17:56,250 that last night, if we'd lost the last defense for the balls for E Mini s&p, I said then we would sweep out this very level here. And so if that's the draw and
88 00:17:56,250 --> 00:18:06,450 liquidity, and we saw that because we broke down, we lost all the last line of defense for discount arrays to send es higher. And in fact, we saw that
89 00:18:06,510 --> 00:18:13,440 supported with the idea that the dollar index was in fact reaching up into its weekly bearish order block the level I mentioned, it'd be in this video on what
90 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:25,200 to call for last night. Because of those factors in agreement, we could look at this area in here and break that down into a lower timeframe. Even still, this
91 00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:32,880 is a one minute charts, every one minute interval is represented by one candlestick here, this level here, this red line, we're going to look at that
92 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:45,480 now on a 15 second chart, that's This is that same order Well, okay. So inside that order, walk everything north of this line going up here, all that price
93 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:53,460 action, we look inside that and we inspect it to see if there's any inefficiencies, and lo and behold, here we have it right there. So when the
94 00:18:53,460 --> 00:19:00,900 market tries to back up into that order block, it's not just simply because we're going into an order block. That makes it a short, just because it's going
95 00:19:00,900 --> 00:19:08,610 up into any old random up close candle doesn't make it an ICT bearish order block, there has to be a narrative that means it's going to want to draw down
96 00:19:08,610 --> 00:19:20,340 into the liquidity below 4120. It's drawing up into a short term premium algorithms can short only when it runs higher. That's how smart money operates.
97 00:19:20,910 --> 00:19:33,870 When it rallies up into this inefficiency disappear Vega, they go short. Then the market starts to spool lower attacking the sell side. So there's your am ICT
98 00:19:33,870 --> 00:19:43,890 silver bullet. As I mentioned, I don't just simply trade on a one minute chart. I can do lots of these types of trades all day long. And if I was showing it to
99 00:19:43,890 --> 00:19:54,330 you on a five minute chart, or a 15 minute chart, you would be lost as to why are we getting in and getting out but yet still be profitable. It's these lower
100 00:19:54,360 --> 00:20:03,120 very, very small timeframes that I'm working with and you can parlay your account once you know what you're doing. Even on ugly days, really choppy, messy
101 00:20:03,120 --> 00:20:12,390 days, if you want to go on and find your five handles, you can use this method here. Okay, so it's a way of dissecting and looking with X ray view into real
102 00:20:12,390 --> 00:20:20,760 order flow. When you have a narrative when the markets likely to go to a predetermined level for either inefficiency or liquidity in this case, I
103 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:29,820 mentioned last night, if we've lost that mean threshold on Emini, s&p, then we would go lower and sweep out that 4120 level where the sell side liquidity was,
104 00:20:30,090 --> 00:20:46,890 and we didn't do that here. Is it a viable trade to take that? Well, if this is the stops at 4120? Is it unreasonable to see it go down? Three handles below
105 00:20:46,890 --> 00:21:00,480 that? No, of course not. You just liquidity resting below there. So if we went down to 41 17.75, and assuming 41 27.75, is where you'd be getting in at? What's
106 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:10,950 the minimum minimum criteria for a high probability? ICT silver bullet train? It's got to offer what 10 handles? Can it offer 10 hills? handles in range, get
107 00:21:10,950 --> 00:21:21,210 that move? Yes. So this meets the criteria. Okay? So the stuff works, Web's ultimate delivers it right here a couple minutes after 11 o'clock, 10 handles
108 00:21:21,210 --> 00:21:30,810 from up here, you wouldn't see that, unless you had the information that's being offered in a platform that offers these timeframes trading view to so happens to
109 00:21:30,810 --> 00:21:42,240 offer that. So it's a really good platform. I like it, it allows me to teach comprehensively, and a lot of my students use it too. So I know everybody else
110 00:21:42,270 --> 00:21:52,800 has these platforms of choice like Ninja Trader and TradeStation, I'm familiar with TradeStation, and all these other things that are available, I have to find
111 00:21:52,800 --> 00:22:06,360 a way to be able to meet the masses, collectively. And I choose this month, this medium. And when my community said, use this, as an alternative to Mt four, I
112 00:22:06,360 --> 00:22:16,800 went here, and I'm glad that I did do that because it allows all of us as a community to come together and see the same thing. I'm not all that proficient
113 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:21,390 when using it. My students are teaching me all the time new things. But moving on.
114 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:34,020 Now, when we got down below that 4120 level, this was the first pass here during the silver bullet trade. Notice there's no obvious inefficiency, right? Because
115 00:22:34,020 --> 00:22:42,420 we're looking at on a five minute chart, that that's that first pass through, then it trades lower, and then it goes down to 10. Handles lower right there at
116 00:22:42,420 --> 00:22:57,510 that 41 17.750 That's the low rate there. Okay, then at noon, it makes the low of the day. At the same time, look what's occurring in the dollar index goes
117 00:22:57,510 --> 00:23:08,670 right up into our weekly bear shorter block opening price. This right here, this right there occurring at the same time, we're below the stops. And inside that
118 00:23:08,700 --> 00:23:20,610 sells out liquidity pool marks the end of the day. We're done. So now what's he going to do? He's going to consolidate until the last hour of debt. Why? Because
119 00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:31,500 dollar has made our target. It's chopping around in here. index futures are going to work towards going into what they were that opening range I showed you
120 00:23:32,430 --> 00:23:45,360 why trying to lean on. This is that shaded area here on the opening range Nords this, this right here. So that's the regular trading hours being shown five
121 00:23:45,360 --> 00:23:55,470 minute chart on a five minute chart here with electronic trading hours. So you see the eth down here in the lower right hand corner that's showing the price
122 00:23:55,470 --> 00:24:04,680 action on electronic trading hours. The last hour of trading three o'clock going into for for the New York session. Obviously it trades till five and stops until
123 00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:14,820 a restart at 6pm for index futures. But we're seeing a displacement to the upside there's a shift in market structure here. We have inbounds fair pay gap
124 00:24:14,850 --> 00:24:27,150 in three consecutive down close Candice waterblock trot out in time. It's it treating the fair pay gap here and then works towards doing what getting up into
125 00:24:27,150 --> 00:24:40,470 that gap. Could it hadn't worked inside of all debt. Remember, it opened here and spent all this time down here. shift in market structure after 12 o'clock,
126 00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:50,400 which is a normal time when we see what a lunch reversal with this gap up here, I'm expecting this and I don't know because I'm talking to you live right now.
127 00:24:50,400 --> 00:25:02,280 It's five minutes after six. I would expect to see it trade up into 4158. Close that in and see if it's willing to go any higher. Maybe Let me bump this
128 00:25:03,300 --> 00:25:10,680 liquidity here, net little gap there. But more specifically, I would like to see all of this filled in. Now let's assume for a moment that it trades up in hits
129 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:19,170 that closes it in, and then we start to fall again, dollar would have to be going higher. And if that's the case, then we'll be looking for and go back up
130 00:25:19,170 --> 00:25:19,740 to a
131 00:25:25,140 --> 00:25:38,880 will be looking for these lows here to be taken out relative equal lows on s&p. So you guys got a chance to see me, cherry picked in the future, a daily candle,
132 00:25:39,060 --> 00:25:51,360 a weekly candle, and it delivered like we outlined last night. This stuff works. I don't know how else to prove it, except for over and over and over again,
133 00:25:51,690 --> 00:26:02,940 showing it to economy outlining it and it performs the setups you have to try to do your best to keep from wanting to be impatient to try to make money right
134 00:26:02,940 --> 00:26:14,370 away. You're going to learn patience by not trying to worry about the money and learn, understand and grow in knowing how to know where these drawers of
135 00:26:14,370 --> 00:26:23,190 liquidity are going to be. It doesn't happen overnight. And nothing I have nothing anybody else has is going to be able to help you get there faster. You
136 00:26:23,190 --> 00:26:31,590 just have to keep showing up every day. I'll keep putting these out. I'll reveal I'll show you the things that you should be seeing in price action. And, you
137 00:26:31,590 --> 00:26:39,240 know you'll you'll grow between now and November. So hopefully this was insightful to you until I'll talk to you next time. Be safe