ICT YT - 2023-05-24 - Forex and Spooz Market Review Tuesday May 23 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-05-26 16:38
Outline
00:59 - You guys can hear me now!
- Lou is trying to make sure he can hear you.
- Economic calendar.
02:35 - What’s coming up this week.
- FOMC minutes and yellen speaking tomorrow.
- Dollar index, euro and euro/spoo price action.
- The orange shaded area is the bearish order flow on the weekly chart.
- The weekly orange level is a potential inversion pair.
08:49 - Why I’m not interested in forex trading.
- Why ict is not interested in forex trading.
- The four-hour long-time chart.
- Short-term premium with inefficiency in the form of fair value.
- Institutional order flow.
12:58 - What is support resistance?
- The cynics that come around and try to appear in the comment section.
- How to be a simple support resistance type trader.
- Fair value gap stays open or remains unfilled.
- One-hour candle wick.
18:49 - What is the fair value gap on the four hour chart?
- The fair value gap based on the four hour chart.
- The one-hour chart.
21:52 - Why you have this efficient delivery and balancing of price action.
- Efficient delivery and balancing of action.
- How michael huddleston deals with inefficiencies.
- Institutional order flow in a lower timeframe chart.
- Signs of inefficiency.
27:05 - How to know when an inefficiency or gap won’t completely fill on lower timeframes.
- How to know when an inefficiency or gap won't fill on lower timeframes.
- The euro dollar.
- The two consecutive up close candles.
- The 2022 fair value gap model.
32:53 - Looking at the price action on the 15 minute chart.
- The five-minute chart is anchored to what would otherwise be a random candlestick chart.
- The order block is the change in stated delivery.
- The one minute chart.
- How to anticipate a high probability bull trade.
38:07 - Looking for inefficiencies in the market.
- Highs have buy stops and lows have sell stops.
- Retail theory and inefficiency.
40:36 - Why is this high so high?
- The algorithm does it on time delivery.
- Model 22, fair value gap.
- How to trade at 1.0782 with spread.
- How to get in and out of a gap.
45:28 - What’s the trigger for an inversion?
- Inversion of fair value.
- Evolving silver bullet, moving from low to high.
- A silver bullet entry that could be a first profit.
- High-precision entries.
50:30 - Daily chart of the day.
- Daily chart points of interest.
- hourly chart of small gap in faraday gap.
- Salsa takes consolidation inside of the new week opening gap.
- Salsa breaks through support resistance.
- Wipe out on the lows, silver bullet.
- Silver bullet trade.
Transcript
| 1 | 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:14,430 | ICT: You guys hear me? Can you hear me talking? Lou? Just want to make sure you can hear me give me an audio check five by five and configuring. |
| 2 | 00:01:22,860 --> 00:01:30,840 | Testing 123 testing 123 is the volume level Good? Can you hear me? Can you hear me? |
| 3 | 00:01:36,420 --> 00:01:46,530 | Can you hear me? I'm checking Twitter to see if you can hear me is the volume good? |
| 4 | 00:01:54,330 --> 00:02:06,030 | Hey there good. Thank you so much. Alright, so take a look at this risk disclaimer, it's probably been showing for few moments for you. Very important. |
| 5 | 00:02:07,590 --> 00:02:21,990 | This thing has gave me a fit tonight. Somebody doesn't want you hearing this. So you hear me? You see D. So here is the economic calendar. So just real quick, |
| 6 | 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:30,540 | take a look at this. I'm not going to go through it and waste your time. Everything here is important for tomorrow's trading. cabled traders. Be mindful |
| 7 | 00:02:30,540 --> 00:02:39,300 | that 2am You have CPI number coming out. So you could have a nice volatile london session there. And then we have FOMC minutes and Yellen speaking |
| 8 | 00:02:39,540 --> 00:02:52,650 | tomorrow. So it's a little bit of a wonky Wednesday. And on Thursday, we have a 30 news embargo lifting with preliminary GDP and unemployment claims. And home |
| 9 | 00:02:52,650 --> 00:03:04,110 | sales at 10 o'clock on Thursday and Friday, we have price index, and then durable goods and consumer sentiment at 10 o'clock. So Friday will probably be |
| 10 | 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:17,460 | very eventful as well. Alright, so I'm gonna try to go through this. I wanted to cover cable but because of all the technical issues I had with OBS, and then |
| 11 | 00:03:17,490 --> 00:03:27,870 | going through the process of creating charts and such, I was trying to make it so I would, I would stay right on point. When I do PowerPoint, it usually helps |
| 12 | 00:03:27,870 --> 00:03:37,980 | me stay on task, because it's very easy for me to stray and go down rabbit trails and have like additional content that I think is pertinent. But a lot of |
| 13 | 00:03:37,980 --> 00:03:46,680 | the newer viewers don't appreciate that because their attention spans too narrow because they don't really appreciate what I'm sharing. So I don't have cable on |
| 14 | 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:56,550 | tonight, I have Dollar Index, euro and Spoos supposes ES or E Mini s&p. So we're going to cover that in a lot of detail. I promise you're gonna learn some things |
| 15 | 00:03:56,550 --> 00:04:03,510 | tonight. And we'll talk a little bit about order blocks. Okay, and you'll see there's a vast difference between what everybody else thinks they don't |
| 16 | 00:04:03,510 --> 00:04:12,330 | understand about my order block theory versus supply and demand, which it is not. But let's get right into it. Here's the dollar index is the weekly chart. |
| 17 | 00:04:13,020 --> 00:04:22,230 | And I'm watching this candle right here. Now usually I'll have a highlighted cursor, but you're gonna have to work with me here tonight. Okay, we're doing |
| 18 | 00:04:24,690 --> 00:04:33,720 | something when dogs are tearing the place up upstairs. They're shorter block. Everything in this video is rough cut. Okay, so these are things that I would |
| 19 | 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:42,060 | usually edit out, but we're gonna have to work through it when we see this up close candle here, that opening price I'm extending out to the right. Do that on |
| 20 | 00:04:42,060 --> 00:04:51,990 | your weekly chart. And you'll have the level I believe is likely to see Dollar Index draw up into we've had this imbalance here. And we've passed through it |
| 21 | 00:04:51,990 --> 00:05:02,430 | twice. And I'm thinking that might lend support now. So it's inversion fair value got that's how I'm treating it. and you'll see this orange shaded area |
| 22 | 00:05:02,460 --> 00:05:09,690 | transposing the lower timeframe charts, as we go through and want to discount, I've been looking at these two levels here, we have the weekly low of this |
| 23 | 00:05:09,690 --> 00:05:20,490 | current week, and then two weeks ago that that high, so that's a discount. So I'm anticipating and expecting price to want to gravitate towards this candles, |
| 24 | 00:05:20,940 --> 00:05:28,800 | opening price, which is the bearish order flow on the weekly chart. Okay, so don't get lost in dialogue without making sure you understand what chart I'm |
| 25 | 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:40,140 | showing up here in the upper left hand corner, it's a weekly chart. So these levels will transpose and we go into the daily chart. And here we have on the |
| 26 | 00:05:40,140 --> 00:05:48,600 | daily chart, the dollar index here is that weekly order block level, and then we have a fair value gap in the form of a city. So it's an unbalanced bias on |
| 27 | 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:59,460 | efficiency. And then here's that weekly, orange level I told you about, that's the one I'm treating it as a potential inversion pair of a gap and a discount. |
| 28 | 00:05:59,460 --> 00:06:09,810 | So this rejecting go lower the last line in the sand for me, for the bulls for institutional order flow to remain bullish, it needs to stay above the halfway |
| 29 | 00:06:09,810 --> 00:06:16,050 | point of this down close candle or here, which is a bullish order block. So on your chart, I didn't add it here, because it's already got too many lines on it |
| 30 | 00:06:16,050 --> 00:06:23,310 | for my personal taste, but I have to give you the levels I'm looking at, otherwise, you'll not know what it is I'm anticipating or referring to in price |
| 31 | 00:06:23,310 --> 00:06:33,420 | action going forward for the rest of the week. So halfway through here is mean threshold. So draw that out on your chart, and where you get that as drop a fib |
| 32 | 00:06:34,320 --> 00:06:42,690 | on this down close candle from the high to the low the 50% level, note that price and extend it for going into the rest of the week. Okay. And if we don't |
| 33 | 00:06:42,840 --> 00:06:53,280 | go to this level here or break below this this week, keep that level also into next week. Okay, because that's my last line of defense for institutional |
| 34 | 00:06:53,280 --> 00:07:03,360 | portfolio to remain bullish. Everything has been bullish thus far. So I'm expecting it to go here. I don't suspect it could, I don't suspect it's going to |
| 35 | 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:14,910 | trade above this fair value gap here. And if you look at this pass through here, this one up close candle, and then this down close candle that range between the |
| 36 | 00:07:14,910 --> 00:07:21,600 | two of them. That's what I refer to as a balanced price range. That's why I'm saying I don't believe it's gonna go above that. If it does, then we're really |
| 37 | 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:28,950 | extremely bullish on dollar, which it doesn't make any sense to do that right now. But, you know, Stranger things have happened in the last three years, |
| 38 | 00:07:28,950 --> 00:07:40,380 | haven't they? So, I'm electing to use the weekly order block is my draw on liquidity for dollar. So we have a risk off scenario until this fails. And it |
| 39 | 00:07:40,380 --> 00:07:49,530 | definitively fails. When it goes through the midpoint that down close candle, okay, so these levels being as they are here, they will be transposed on lower |
| 40 | 00:07:49,530 --> 00:07:59,790 | timeframes. And not using the lower timeframes for dollar because it's not necessary, you can use those same levels and check them out on your charts. And |
| 41 | 00:07:59,790 --> 00:08:07,350 | just getting right to the meat of the presentation tonight. Here's the Eurodollar. Again, weekly chart up here. I was watching this volume imbalance |
| 42 | 00:08:07,350 --> 00:08:17,730 | and I was wanting to see if he can gravitate towards that it failed to do so. And we move lower. So I'm treating this down close candle here as a bullish |
| 43 | 00:08:17,730 --> 00:08:25,230 | order block. I believe that's the draw on liquidity. There is no inefficiency in here. So I'm thinking that we could come down here and touch that candles high |
| 44 | 00:08:25,230 --> 00:08:38,460 | end or opening price specifically is what I'm aiming for. And that's what I have noted. on the daily chart for Euro dollar, you can see we had that run up into |
| 45 | 00:08:38,460 --> 00:08:49,740 | the last up close candle here. That is a bearish order block. It's traded into the weekly volume imbalance once there. But didn't get up into that area here. |
| 46 | 00:08:49,740 --> 00:08:58,890 | But we did take out this high. This and this is another reason why I have not really interested in forex, because this this type of price action to me, is |
| 47 | 00:08:58,890 --> 00:09:08,520 | really boring. Now if you go into a one minute 15 second chart, you can take all kinds of really, really small microstructure types of traits. I'm not saying |
| 48 | 00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:18,000 | it's not tradable, I'm just saying ICT doesn't want to trade it. Okay, so I'm not interested in this, I want to see much better inefficiencies to work with |
| 49 | 00:09:18,210 --> 00:09:28,350 | better depiction of buy side or sell side liquidity pools. These are all just really back and forth price movement. And to me, I don't like that there's |
| 50 | 00:09:28,350 --> 00:09:36,720 | better markets to trade. And if it doesn't offer me a market to trade. It's better than this. Then I'll take vacations like you see me do in the recent two |
| 51 | 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:46,170 | months. And when I'm able to see it cleaner, I can call it and tell it and show it to you and you can see the executions. But when it is performing like this, |
| 52 | 00:09:46,380 --> 00:09:59,220 | I'm not interested in so there's other pairs that you can trade. You can use, you know the crosses, you can use the POUND DOLLAR, Aussie dollar, you know |
| 53 | 00:09:59,220 --> 00:10:09,450 | those types of things. markets. And if we have that high impact news event for GDP tonight, which will be two o'clock in the morning, my time for the folks |
| 54 | 00:10:09,450 --> 00:10:19,470 | across the planet your morning, that, in my opinion, you'll have a lot of volatility going into tomorrow. So if you're up and you're able to trade London, |
| 55 | 00:10:19,620 --> 00:10:31,290 | or paper traded or demo traded or tape read it, I think you'll have a pretty good session to do so less tonight. But I'm sticking with Euro because I want to |
| 56 | 00:10:31,290 --> 00:10:44,160 | keep things simple. drawing down into that 107 big figure is the order block on the weekly chart. So that's what I'm looking for. I see, here's a four hour |
| 57 | 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:54,780 | chart look. For our man, he got bumped is it for our union talked about a four hour long time I see take. I know, I know. And I felt like sharing tonight, I'm |
| 58 | 00:10:54,780 --> 00:11:02,550 | going to pull out the four hour chart when it's necessary. And it's necessary here because we have a whole lot of nasty price action on that daily chart. So I |
| 59 | 00:11:02,550 --> 00:11:10,650 | want to break it down into smaller, more refined ranges. So you can see inefficiencies and better liquidity pools, which is why I said yes, you can |
| 60 | 00:11:10,650 --> 00:11:17,550 | trade it. But it's just something that I'm not personally interested in trading at the time. I have lots of students that are beating this all up. But again, |
| 61 | 00:11:17,550 --> 00:11:21,690 | that's these are their markets is not my market, I've switched over the futures. |
| 62 | 00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:35,340 | So we have a small little gap in here, after shifting market structure after the order block, and we had a lower high here. So it's a run up into a short term |
| 63 | 00:11:35,550 --> 00:11:45,630 | premium with a inefficiency in the form of fair value got Southside unbalanced by sudden efficiency, it hits the low bid, rejects it hard, and then creates |
| 64 | 00:11:45,630 --> 00:11:54,390 | another sell off another similar sell side unbalanced by assigning efficiency runs up hits it so what's institutional order flow showing you look close, I'll |
| 65 | 00:11:54,390 --> 00:12:05,580 | close candle, the green one, every candle on my chart, that drain is up close. So when institutional order flow is bearish, okay, when it's bearish. What we're |
| 66 | 00:12:05,580 --> 00:12:17,520 | anticipating is up close candles will cause the market to find resistance there. And we want to see down close candles be eviscerated in order to trade down |
| 67 | 00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:29,310 | through them. So this up close candle here. We see price on this candle trade up into it and does it reject it go lower? Yes. We open we trade up into this |
| 68 | 00:12:29,310 --> 00:12:37,470 | candles low, which is a closed candle these two consecutive candles does the price rejecting go lower? Yes, it does. The market trades up into another |
| 69 | 00:12:37,470 --> 00:12:44,280 | inefficiency right in here. I'll talk a little bit more in detail about inefficiencies when we get into the lower timeframes. I'm gonna teach a really |
| 70 | 00:12:44,670 --> 00:12:55,980 | deep dive charter level presentation on liquidity. So we have the run up into this inefficiency, it breaks lower. And then we have another break heart |
| 71 | 00:12:55,980 --> 00:13:05,160 | aggressive move here below that low. And this is where your notes, folks, there's a lot of cynics that come around. And they try to appear in my comment |
| 72 | 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:13,110 | section, which is another reason why I don't like to show my comment section because I'm not given a stage for comedians. The the notion is IS IT Support |
| 73 | 00:13:13,110 --> 00:13:23,430 | Resistance, what I'm trading, I'm not trading Support Resistance. But if you were to look at that low right there, you Tom, Dick and Harry are are in Frank's |
| 74 | 00:13:23,430 --> 00:13:32,430 | mentorship down the road, they're gonna say this right here this low, draw that out in time, that's a floor become a ceiling. And that's right there. That's |
| 75 | 00:13:32,430 --> 00:13:40,320 | classic support resistance. This is how you know when classic Support Resistance will work. You see that little inefficiency right there. That figure I got right |
| 76 | 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:51,870 | there. That's what makes that work. Not simply because it goes back to that old low. So if you want to be a simple Support Resistance type trader, if you use my |
| 77 | 00:13:51,870 --> 00:14:02,100 | fair value gap, you will qualify and quantify actual support and resistance from a classical Stance. Okay, that's one of the things that I used to bridge because |
| 78 | 00:14:02,100 --> 00:14:09,300 | I got beat up when I first started trading. And here's one of those points where I go down a rabbit trail, but I just want to toss it in here because I thought |
| 79 | 00:14:09,300 --> 00:14:17,850 | the books were right. I spent a lot of money on those books, and I trusted the author's. So I figured Support Resistance is where I was at. And I could not |
| 80 | 00:14:17,850 --> 00:14:26,850 | pick the right support resistance and what high and low, I would always get it wrong. So if you go back through all your price data, look at all the times |
| 81 | 00:14:26,850 --> 00:14:36,690 | where an old high or an old low has a fair value gap, as I teach it, and if you have the bias right? In your own side, then you will be correct with your |
| 82 | 00:14:36,690 --> 00:14:44,850 | support resistance ideas. Okay, so if that helps any of you, it may not but if it does, you know, that's what I'm trying to aim at. But I don't trade |
| 83 | 00:14:44,850 --> 00:14:54,240 | supporting systems, there's a real specific thing I'm showing and you're gonna learn a great deal tonight. Very, very high level, very deep, expose a lot of |
| 84 | 00:14:54,330 --> 00:15:03,240 | inefficiencies and liquidity. But we we break lower we had the shark run here, and then we had this small little area here. And it doesn't fill in that area |
| 85 | 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:15,420 | right there. Notice that now here's where the details are missed when you see other people try to teach my stuff. And folks, I understand that you'd like what |
| 86 | 00:15:15,450 --> 00:15:22,620 | I'm teaching, and you want to go out there and you want to be educated, you want to influence other people, and you want to feel like you're empowering other |
| 87 | 00:15:22,620 --> 00:15:34,020 | people. You have to learn correctly before you start teaching. Because talking about in hindsight, is not enough. You have to understand what you're teaching, |
| 88 | 00:15:34,890 --> 00:15:43,200 | or you're going to hurt other people trying to learn from you. And you're gonna get high on the attention and not understand the damage that you're doing to |
| 89 | 00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:52,230 | people that are coming to you thinking that you understand something, and you really don't, I have not fully taught all this, there's a lot more things that |
| 90 | 00:15:52,230 --> 00:16:00,390 | need to be talked about. You can see some of the things, and you can appreciate their existence and price action. But you have to understand there's a great |
| 91 | 00:16:00,390 --> 00:16:10,200 | deal of detail that is still yet to be revealed. I'm going to show you a whole lot of that tonight, a set of charts and missionaries. But there's times where I |
| 92 | 00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:19,680 | teach. When I'm doing my live executions, you'll hear either talk about it, or I'll type it out. And I'll say, I want to see this fair value gap stay open or |
| 93 | 00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:27,450 | remain unfilled, that would be ideal for this gap to stay unfilled. That means it's not going to come back up to the high of it. And we're going to look at all |
| 94 | 00:16:27,450 --> 00:16:37,200 | this tonight, and we're going to look at it in great detail. But just know that between 108 40 and 108 60, around that 108 50 level or so we're going to look at |
| 95 | 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:45,570 | a lower timeframe. Right now this is a four hour chart. So we're going to drop down in to a one hour chart. Knowing that we have sell side liquidity here, and |
| 96 | 00:16:45,570 --> 00:16:54,840 | this is the draw on liquidity, I believe that's likely. And look at the bodies of the candle respecting this order block right there. See that opening price |
| 97 | 00:16:54,840 --> 00:17:03,480 | right there, extend that through, all the buyers of these candles are here are holding price down. It's only wicking through a little bit. These are like |
| 98 | 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:12,600 | little Mohawks, okay? Ultimately price breaks lower, and then this candle we open, trade it back up immediate rebounds, and then we're just marking time |
| 99 | 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:22,980 | right now. So I'm watching this little candle wick over here, the tail of that candle, midpoint of that is consequent encroachment, extend that out and put it |
| 100 | 00:17:22,980 --> 00:17:32,790 | on the chart on here because again, this is way too much lipstick for my liking. But for you to understand and follow what it is I have to do it. So this level |
| 101 | 00:17:32,790 --> 00:17:39,210 | halfway right there. I'm not saying that is but you see the measurement of the closing price and the load of 50 to 50% level with the consequent curtailment |
| 102 | 00:17:39,540 --> 00:17:47,220 | extend that level to the right. If we fail to get down here, then I think it's going to at least go to that level there. Okay, so if I'm wrong, it doesn't go |
| 103 | 00:17:47,220 --> 00:18:02,190 | here, it should at least try to stab into that constant encouragement of this wick down here. So let's drop into the one hour candlestick. Now here, here's |
| 104 | 00:18:02,190 --> 00:18:11,040 | where the folks that don't know what you're talking about. Okay, and I'll be honest with you, folks, if that pisses you off and offend you, and I talk like |
| 105 | 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:18,720 | this, you're just gonna have to warm up to the idea that I authored this stuff. And when I see other people trying to teach it incorrectly, or pretending no |
| 106 | 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:29,640 | something when I know they don't, and and try to market it. It's offensive to me. And I have a voice in this because it's my content, I created it. So if you |
| 107 | 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:35,580 | really want to warm up the idea of know how to do this stuff, you're at the source right now you're going to hear about it, you're gonna see something |
| 108 | 00:18:35,610 --> 00:18:42,390 | tonight that hasn't been taught to you. You're not going to see it in their other stuff. Okay, their five minute trainers, you're not going to get anybody |
| 109 | 00:18:42,390 --> 00:18:55,440 | to be able to condense this into a quicker version to just roll your sleeves up and pay attention. This gap is based on the four hour chart. And then we got one |
| 110 | 00:18:55,440 --> 00:19:08,280 | more slide. Okay, see, we can get our calibrations. 109 big figure that's this high here. And then 108 50 in that vicinity is this gap. So this red level here |
| 111 | 00:19:08,370 --> 00:19:18,900 | and this red level here. That's a for our fair value gap. And these two levels are for airfare right? Yep. So it's got one. So again, that's this, the 109 big |
| 112 | 00:19:18,900 --> 00:19:29,910 | figure and a 108 50 level that's in here. Okay, so we're looking at this fair value gap on the four hour and this fair value gap on the four hour in a one |
| 113 | 00:19:29,910 --> 00:19:41,460 | hour timeframe. Because this chart right here, if you look up here, it's a four hour chart. So my next slide is a one hour chart. So here's that 109 We have the |
| 114 | 00:19:41,460 --> 00:19:52,980 | low of the four hour this candle and the high of this candle, but the gap is formed on a four hour chart. When we see it dropped down into a one hour chart |
| 115 | 00:19:52,980 --> 00:20:05,670 | we have this inefficiency. Yes. It trades up to it and reprice is to the Hi, this is what you expect. You want to see it trade there and stop dead in its |
| 116 | 00:20:05,670 --> 00:20:17,910 | tracks. That is institutional order flow, does it react to it and go lower? Yes. Then the market attacks what what's resting below here? Sell side, the market |
| 117 | 00:20:17,910 --> 00:20:29,490 | does in fact go below that, then it created in this run below that low. That 108 60, the 108 40 level, which is the for our fair value gap. This is the |
| 118 | 00:20:29,490 --> 00:20:37,380 | higher the for our fair value gap level, this is the lower the fair value gap on the for our this little inefficiency right here is denoting simply that candles |
| 119 | 00:20:37,380 --> 00:20:49,530 | low. And then this candle is high, but that one big down close candle in the middle. Imagine for a moment, okay. Imagine that you understood the dollar was |
| 120 | 00:20:49,650 --> 00:20:58,770 | bullish, and Euro is bearish. And you were sitting right here, where my cursor is. |
| 121 | 00:21:00,660 --> 00:21:11,430 | And you were shrunk down like Ant Man in Marvel. And you were standing right at the point of my cursor, and you were looked left? What would you see, you would |
| 122 | 00:21:11,430 --> 00:21:21,450 | see this wall of price action right here. And then if you had x ray vision, you could see there was two other panels or layers until you got to this old low and |
| 123 | 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:29,850 | old order flow over here. So if you're looking at price action from this perspective, looking back, look how prices move back and forth in here, you see |
| 124 | 00:21:29,850 --> 00:21:38,130 | that. And then on this one big candle down, you only had the separation between the candles low prior to it, and the candle after its high. That's what this |
| 125 | 00:21:38,130 --> 00:21:49,860 | little red shaded rectangle is. So on the four hour chart, this high of the fair value gap in this low of that for our fair value gap, it does not need to |
| 126 | 00:21:49,860 --> 00:22:01,020 | reprice up to that high like it did here on this one. Why? Because you have this efficient delivery and balancing of price action, it's delivered to the |
| 127 | 00:22:01,020 --> 00:22:09,300 | downside, the next time that we open trade up and then trade back down right there by itself that's bounced for me, then it throws you one more confirmation. |
| 128 | 00:22:10,140 --> 00:22:21,360 | We open trade up one more time to it and then rejects heart leading that this candle is close right here. That small little inefficiency right there. When you |
| 129 | 00:22:21,360 --> 00:22:27,990 | see me talk about in commentary while I'm taking the lottery, and I'm typing out, when I draw up the fair value gaps, I say I want to see this remain |
| 130 | 00:22:28,020 --> 00:22:39,900 | unfilled. What you're not privy to is I have 12 monitors in front of me. And I have three monitors to the right. And I have two small little devices, okay, |
| 131 | 00:22:39,930 --> 00:22:48,330 | which are like their Samsung, like they're not iPads, but I can't think of their tablets. And so with regards to Samsung tablets, and I had the laptop that I |
| 132 | 00:22:48,330 --> 00:22:59,460 | talked to you all with my social media. When I'm typing in, or if I talk about it, while I'm doing the trade, and I'll say I want to see this fair value guy, |
| 133 | 00:22:59,790 --> 00:23:10,890 | stay open and unfilled. It's ideal or optimal for to not fill in. What you're not seeing because I'm not trying to show every chart. I'm not trying to hide it |
| 134 | 00:23:10,890 --> 00:23:19,590 | from you. But my attention has to be focused on what it is I'm following. I'm not just simply looking at the chart, I'm trading. I'm looking at all the lower |
| 135 | 00:23:19,590 --> 00:23:27,330 | timeframes, too. And I'm reading price action just like this. So imagine for a moment that that four hour chart, let's go back up one slide. Man, I should have |
| 136 | 00:23:27,330 --> 00:23:38,730 | charged money for this. This inefficiency right here, right there. If I'm going short, in that I am telling myself that it should not go up there and touch the |
| 137 | 00:23:38,730 --> 00:23:50,490 | top of that fear blanket, it should stay open. unfilled. But let's just say that this was a five minute chart, not a four hour. And this was like the ES or any |
| 138 | 00:23:50,490 --> 00:23:58,020 | other market that'd be trading and show examples of me doing it where I type out, and it never fills it keeps on running. How does ICT How do I how does |
| 139 | 00:23:58,020 --> 00:24:04,530 | Michael Huddleston know how to do that. There's so many people in the comment section that you don't see because I don't let my comments post anymore, because |
| 140 | 00:24:04,530 --> 00:24:13,050 | again, I'm not getting a stage for jerks. And I appreciate all your love and affection. But it's not necessary for everybody else to see that it's for me. So |
| 141 | 00:24:13,230 --> 00:24:23,040 | just know that I read all of them. But this inefficiency here, let's say this, this chart was a five minute chart, not a four hour and then we dropped down |
| 142 | 00:24:23,070 --> 00:24:36,450 | into this timeframe one hour. So this would be like a one minute chart. Or maybe it's a 32nd chart or a 15 second chart or a five second chart. But it I don't |
| 143 | 00:24:36,450 --> 00:24:46,710 | have that data. You don't need it, just treat the timeframes that you can, but on a lower timeframe less than five minutes and it could be on the second chart. |
| 144 | 00:24:47,700 --> 00:24:56,610 | If I see in between those two ranges, the low and the high of the fair value got I anticipate trading up into and wanting to be short. I see this inefficiency |
| 145 | 00:24:56,610 --> 00:25:06,870 | here. I do not need or anticipate or expect price to go up to the high of it because it's already done this 123. And then the smaller inefficiency here. |
| 146 | 00:25:06,900 --> 00:25:15,390 | That's why it stops dead in its tracks and consequent encroachment, which is half of that gap here on that candle there, and then stops at the low, and then |
| 147 | 00:25:15,390 --> 00:25:25,770 | you see it fail, leaving this portion open. That's real institutional order flow. These jokers that talk about volume profiled in my comment section saying, |
| 148 | 00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:32,370 | This isn't real order flow, you don't you're talking about, you have no idea you're talking about. Because the market is not working off a volume profile, |
| 149 | 00:25:32,430 --> 00:25:40,440 | it's operating and delivering on an algorithm, it's coded to do this, and I don't care if you believe it. I'm out here doing it. I'm out here showing it I'm |
| 150 | 00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:48,450 | teaching people how to do it. And they're doing it and they're making real money with it. So it's either the biggest conspiracy and collaboration of fraud of |
| 151 | 00:25:48,450 --> 00:25:54,660 | everybody being able to be right at the same time doing something, we're not really telling you what it is, or it's real asset it is and are all falling it. |
| 152 | 00:25:54,780 --> 00:26:02,370 | So you decide what it is okay, the people are making money, I'm calling it live, they're trading it live, they're making money, it is what it is, you came here |
| 153 | 00:26:02,370 --> 00:26:11,730 | to learn, I'm teaching you. This is how I know when gaps are not going to completely fill because on a lower timeframe chart that I'm watching. And I have |
| 154 | 00:26:11,730 --> 00:26:23,730 | one specific chart or not chart, but I have one monitor that I have that I call a matrix. Okay? It's an intraday matrix where it allows me to look at 54321 |
| 155 | 00:26:23,730 --> 00:26:36,300 | minute candles, and then I toggle and I can go down into a 45 second chart, a 32nd chart, a 15 second chart, a five second chart, one second chart. So I'm |
| 156 | 00:26:36,300 --> 00:26:45,810 | looking for these types of signatures in every inefficiency I'm watching on price. So again, if this was a one minute chart, and the four hour was like a |
| 157 | 00:26:45,810 --> 00:26:55,650 | five minute chart, the relationships that on a lower timeframe, it's it's showing you delivery, this is real order flow, I do not need to see a depth of |
| 158 | 00:26:55,650 --> 00:27:02,490 | market, I don't need to see level two, that's all gimmicks, those things can be spoofed, you cannot spoof a candlestick or open high low and close bar. You |
| 159 | 00:27:02,490 --> 00:27:13,590 | can't spoof it, it's there. Everybody sees it. And it's time based. The algorithm runs on time. So for the folks that have been dying, and chomping at |
| 160 | 00:27:13,590 --> 00:27:25,440 | the bit of giving you right here, this is the technique, the concept, the ICT Blue Ribbon seal of approval, how to know when an inefficiency or gap won't |
| 161 | 00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:34,650 | completely fill on lower timeframes, you're going to be reading price action. And if you have all this back and forth movement, that's layering. So that's why |
| 162 | 00:27:34,650 --> 00:27:42,180 | I said if you're at the point of my cursor, shrunk down minutes, like a miniature you and you were looking to the left, you would see a wall of price |
| 163 | 00:27:42,180 --> 00:27:51,330 | action here, and another wall and another wall before you get to the overflow. So it's already moved back and forth, three specific hours of back and forth |
| 164 | 00:27:51,330 --> 00:28:00,300 | price action, near the high end of that four hour for your Vega. So there's no necessity for price to go up below above really, this candles low, and it |
| 165 | 00:28:00,300 --> 00:28:09,960 | doesn't even get to it there. It stops midpoint of that little small and inefficiency right there. And then does one more time here fails slides. Then we |
| 166 | 00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:18,090 | work off with an order block in here. As I said on the four hour look at the bodies respecting and holding price at bay. And we broke down a small little gap |
| 167 | 00:28:18,090 --> 00:28:28,710 | and here we had a runoff. And we have sellside building right here with that 107 big figure. And for our fairway, you got that shaded down here. Where we member |
| 168 | 00:28:28,710 --> 00:28:35,910 | rather that there is a wick the consequent encroachment of that wick on the four hour chart, it's somewhere in here, I don't know what the price level is. And to |
| 169 | 00:28:35,910 --> 00:28:44,910 | be honest with you, I'm not truly aware of what that price level is you have to find it on your own on the four hour chart. And I know you're probably confusion |
| 170 | 00:28:44,910 --> 00:28:53,370 | yes ago, it's this wick here. Retail measure half of that extended forward, okay, it's less than 107. I just don't know exactly what that price level is, |
| 171 | 00:28:53,400 --> 00:29:03,810 | you'll have to determine that on your own. Alright, here's the 15 minute chart of the Euro dollar. And now we're getting down to the brass tacks of intraday |
| 172 | 00:29:03,810 --> 00:29:15,810 | price action. And we have the 2022 model right here. stuff doesn't work apparently does every day, but you have a gap. Relative equal highs, what's |
| 173 | 00:29:15,870 --> 00:29:26,220 | resting above these highs by stops? The market rallies up, runs through, engages the buy side and trades into the inefficiency. Why doesn't trade all get in |
| 174 | 00:29:26,220 --> 00:29:33,750 | touch the top of that. What's this candle doing over here, it's one single pass and then one single pass. That's a balanced price range. That's why you don't |
| 175 | 00:29:33,780 --> 00:29:44,460 | get all the way up in there. So there's two different forms of knowing how I don't anticipate a full closure, or repricing to a fair value got high or low |
| 176 | 00:29:44,460 --> 00:29:54,390 | respectively. If it creates these bounce price ranges where it's one single pass, and in one single pass bid in between those two handles the high and low, |
| 177 | 00:29:55,530 --> 00:30:02,730 | the highest of the gap, which would be this here, and the lowest would be down here. So that's your Fair. I'm sorry. That's your balanced price range between |
| 178 | 00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:12,870 | these two ranges. This one big I know some of you're confused right now. I have a lesson coming for this. Do not freak out and stop trying to insist I teach it |
| 179 | 00:30:12,870 --> 00:30:21,540 | faster to you because you can't wait patiently. I have a lot of future lessons. And I have an itinerary. I'm trying to stick to my itinerary. It's not have your |
| 180 | 00:30:21,540 --> 00:30:33,360 | way mentorship here. Okay, I'm not working. So we have this run up in Dubai stops, we hit it, and then we price lower. So isn't this low taken out right |
| 181 | 00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:44,640 | there isn't that the 2020 model, we have by stops taken here, then we have a shift in market structure, does it have a fair value got E up for the block, |
| 182 | 00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:56,460 | extend that forward, trades up into it breaks lower. Notice it doesn't completely close in the top of that figure out why you want to block stops, it |
| 183 | 00:30:57,600 --> 00:30:59,070 | is a change in state delivery there. |
| 184 | 00:31:00,270 --> 00:31:12,390 | Then we have price break aggressively lower again, moving below this low. We have an inefficiency. BizStats are taken here. Here's another model 2022. Fair |
| 185 | 00:31:12,390 --> 00:31:25,680 | value gap trades up into it. The low of that candle. Now watch this and uses for the waterblock freaks. These two up close candles are consecutive. That's a |
| 186 | 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:40,440 | bearish waterfall, the low of that candle, extend that through what is it an overlap and consequent encroachment of that gap midpoint, it's real close |
| 187 | 00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:51,960 | proximity to that. So if we have a coupling, or confluence of these PD arrays, half of this gap consequent encouraged, I didn't know some of you are freaking |
| 188 | 00:31:51,960 --> 00:32:00,060 | out that are brand new, like Man, this is too complicated. Keep showing up, you'll learn I promise. It just takes time being exposed to over and over and |
| 189 | 00:32:00,060 --> 00:32:07,200 | over again. You'll see it you'll pick it up. But that low of those two consecutive up close candles, that is your order block that's your change in a |
| 190 | 00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:16,620 | state of delivery. Why is that the change of state delivery, because it's also in close proximity to the halfway point or consequent encroachment of this |
| 191 | 00:32:16,650 --> 00:32:25,320 | inefficiency or sell side unbalanced bites on efficiency. There's only one pass through between this candles low this candle is high that one candle there. Half |
| 192 | 00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:36,630 | of that is about right there, which is right at just about that low of that candle. Price stops dead in its tracks right at that waterblock where the change |
| 193 | 00:32:36,630 --> 00:32:46,440 | has stayed delivering it curves, then it prices lower and takes the sell side out here. Let's go into a deeper dive with this right there. Just know that |
| 194 | 00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:54,180 | these two consecutive up close candles, that's my bearish order block, the change in estate delivery is at that low. We're going to look at this candle |
| 195 | 00:32:54,180 --> 00:33:06,000 | right here closer on the lower timeframe. Here's that same price delivery that was on the 15 minute chart now a five minute chart. It's anchored to what would |
| 196 | 00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:12,570 | otherwise be a random candle. Because you don't know what I'm showing if I'm if I just showed you this chart here, some of you nod your head you can see that. |
| 197 | 00:33:13,110 --> 00:33:20,280 | But without the context that I just gave you on a 15 minute chart, you're lost. Because you're gonna look at this up close candle and everybody else with Tom |
| 198 | 00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:27,750 | Dick And Harry's mentorship, they're gonna say this is the bearish order block, and I'm gonna try to sell short up here, it never went to the order block ICTs a |
| 199 | 00:33:27,750 --> 00:33:34,440 | fraud, it's fake, it doesn't work, yada, yada, yada. That's why you get these people out there saying that kind of stuff because they don't know how to do it |
| 200 | 00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:46,860 | themselves. 30 minute waterblock its parent, its parent, this is subordinate. This is a five minute chart, it's going to be subordinate to the 15 Minute |
| 201 | 00:33:46,890 --> 00:33:59,190 | candlestick chart. So the narrative is derived on the 15 Minute, then you look for signatures on the five minute to align with that. So this is that low, or |
| 202 | 00:33:59,190 --> 00:34:07,380 | that's two up close candles on a 15 minute chart. I'm extending it forward. Can you see visually how that it's essentially half of this range right there. |
| 203 | 00:34:07,890 --> 00:34:16,800 | That's why it goes right up there and stops not because Dan said so. Not because there was a way to Elliott wrote in. It's not supply and demand. It's not |
| 204 | 00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:26,970 | harmonic. It's nothing else but the algorithm. Okay, the price goes right to that price level and stops dead in its tracks. Like some invisible force field |
| 205 | 00:34:26,970 --> 00:34:38,850 | said NO, YOU SHALL NOT PASS. That's why this level here stays open. Doesn't need to go up there. Why? Because the order block is the change in stated delivery, |
| 206 | 00:34:38,850 --> 00:34:48,180 | it stops right there. So that means all of this price run up above these by stops. Here. It goes above to engage those by stops. Yes. But does it go through |
| 207 | 00:34:48,180 --> 00:34:55,740 | some random level? How do you know how far it's going to go when it's running stops this I'm doing this this is technical science. I'm reading everything in |
| 208 | 00:34:55,740 --> 00:35:05,730 | the price action. This movement lower From this high down to that low, that's your price swing, that's you're dealing range and he had to split that up. |
| 209 | 00:35:08,430 --> 00:35:16,950 | Equilibrium. So we went into what a short term premium to some random level No, a 15 minute bearish order block. That is the consequent current of this fair |
| 210 | 00:35:16,950 --> 00:35:26,400 | Vega. So if it does that runs up here and takes up the buy side. Why would Smart Money want that? Because they're going to sell short here, where they're going |
| 211 | 00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:35,160 | to, what are you gonna do with that? They're gonna offset distribute their shorts by accumulating to sell stock below that low. And that's what you have |
| 212 | 00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:42,180 | right there. So smart money sell short, all through here, they're selling short, selling, selling, selling, selling, selling, selling, selling up to that point, |
| 213 | 00:35:42,180 --> 00:35:52,590 | they start, they can't, they can't assume any more. Because this is where they're being told. This is it. That's the threshold. Then as price goes down, |
| 214 | 00:35:53,250 --> 00:36:06,090 | they're starting to distribute for selling short, but they're buying back as price breaks down close candles. Right there. rallies back up. And then right |
| 215 | 00:36:06,090 --> 00:36:13,710 | below this candle here. Once it goes through that they're covering more and uncovering way below the low with the sell side is that's real institutional |
| 216 | 00:36:13,710 --> 00:36:22,440 | order flow. That's real order flow, Jack. Okay, whether you like it or not, whether you like me or not, that's the facts. Okay? So it repeats it does every |
| 217 | 00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:33,000 | single week, every single day. There's something like this always occurring. So let's go in to more detail and really drive this home. One minute chart. Okay, |
| 218 | 00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:43,500 | Mr. mope, or mop or whatever his name was in the comment section that says it doesn't work in forex, and it's nonsense marketing by ICT. There's some rules I |
| 219 | 00:36:43,500 --> 00:36:53,550 | gave you in that ICT Silver Bullet presentation. Okay, I gave you a very specific tools to choose a high probability condition. I'm going to counsel you |
| 220 | 00:36:53,550 --> 00:37:02,160 | to go back and look at those rules. They're not cherry picked to make it work here. Okay. The very first important slide in that presentation, I gave you some |
| 221 | 00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:12,810 | dialogue, how to anticipate a high probability silver bull trade. There are parameters I've given you for forex and futures. So whether you're trading index |
| 222 | 00:37:12,810 --> 00:37:22,230 | futures, like I'm focusing my attention on now, or if you're still in forex, or if you want to trade additionally Forex to there's rules, okay, Forex, I like to |
| 223 | 00:37:22,230 --> 00:37:31,710 | see about a 15 pip range. So if you can move 15 pips, that means I can potentially take 10 out, that's the minimum. Okay, that's the minimum I'm |
| 224 | 00:37:31,710 --> 00:37:42,090 | expecting for a silver bullet for trading Forex. That is not to say that I'm only teaching you how to trade and get 10 pips. But I'm giving you high |
| 225 | 00:37:42,090 --> 00:37:51,750 | frequency trading methodology now. And these things repeat every single day, it's a time window that you can look for this the form every friggin day, every |
| 226 | 00:37:51,750 --> 00:38:02,640 | day, even in sloppy messy days that people say, Oh, this is ridiculous. I can't trade this. You can, you can trade these, okay? But it's not imperative that you |
| 227 | 00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:11,250 | try to do it now as a new student, because you're trading in very difficult times. And when these get better, and the market loosens up a little bit more, |
| 228 | 00:38:11,250 --> 00:38:20,670 | and I suspect it probably will here in a couple of weeks. But when that occurs, you'll see a whole lot more volatility. So here's what I have here in reference |
| 229 | 00:38:20,670 --> 00:38:30,540 | to time. Okay, at 10 o'clock in the morning. Again, this is euro dollar, it's not es it's not E Mini s&p S is forex pair. The market has Buy Sell liquidity, |
| 230 | 00:38:30,540 --> 00:38:41,100 | this buy side is that same buy side, let's go back up to the five minute now. And I want you to get lost. That's this here. Okay, this area in here. If we |
| 231 | 00:38:41,100 --> 00:38:50,130 | look at how highs have buy stops, and lows have sell stocks, like down here, I want you to think about that premise. Like this. This is whenever I'm looking at |
| 232 | 00:38:50,130 --> 00:38:59,760 | price action, the first thing I'm looking for the first thing is any inefficiency. I want to see is there any imbalances like this one here in this |
| 233 | 00:38:59,790 --> 00:39:13,680 | will not so much on the 15 minute chart did have one. But any inefficiency like that right there. See that. So when we look above old highs, we don't need to |
| 234 | 00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:21,810 | see a depth of market for a ladder, or volume profile or anything like that, to know their stops above that. It's just common knowledge. There's going to be |
| 235 | 00:39:21,810 --> 00:39:29,400 | short sellers. If the market traded lower, there's going to be somebody that's short. And if they're short, chances are they're trying to protect, protect or, |
| 236 | 00:39:30,030 --> 00:39:40,290 | you know, hold some measure of unrealized profit if they're wrong. And below lows. If the market has rallied, our assumption is that there's going to be sell |
| 237 | 00:39:40,290 --> 00:39:47,370 | stocks below that somehow somebody is going to look at that as a long position and they're going to play stops below that. How do you protect a long position? |
| 238 | 00:39:47,610 --> 00:39:57,330 | It's protected with sell stop below some important low they call it. Okay, so that's easy retail one on one logic. So what I try to do is I look at how I can |
| 239 | 00:39:57,330 --> 00:40:08,400 | take that and turn it upside down How can I attack retail theory? How am I going to go in and go after goober? Okay, goober is in here trying to trade off of |
| 240 | 00:40:08,550 --> 00:40:17,820 | something he learned in a book. And he thinks he's he's figured out the whole idea of how markets move around. And he has depth of market level two data, |
| 241 | 00:40:17,910 --> 00:40:26,820 | things are on the right side of his chart passing through, he feels like he's technically inclined now. And he's still still doing what? Putting stocks below |
| 242 | 00:40:26,820 --> 00:40:35,940 | lows and above old highs. So that doesn't change anything. Okay. So I cut all the nonsense out of it, and go right to the brass tacks of Where's liquidity? |
| 243 | 00:40:35,940 --> 00:40:46,650 | And where's inefficiencies? Because it's exactly what the algorithm does. And he does it does it on a time delivery. Everything's by time. So when we drop down |
| 244 | 00:40:46,980 --> 00:40:51,210 | into the moment, sharp boss or liquidity. |
| 245 | 00:40:54,960 --> 00:41:05,310 | This high rate here, why this high? Why am I why am I going to refer this high here? Because when price made this low, it started from that high. written here. |
| 246 | 00:41:05,340 --> 00:41:13,530 | Now I'm not talking about this high. I'm talking about this delivery, that little run right there. It stemmed right from that time, I want to see that high |
| 247 | 00:41:13,530 --> 00:41:21,510 | broken. If it does, it does. So here, then we have a shift in market structure. Why can't I use this one, you can if you want to be ultra aggressive, but it |
| 248 | 00:41:21,510 --> 00:41:29,640 | could fail on you. You could use this one, but it could fail on you. I want this one because this one is the parent price swing that sent it down here to take |
| 249 | 00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:38,820 | off the sell side right there. So I want to see that high broken on the upside, trades into a fair value gap there after the shift in market structure. That my |
| 250 | 00:41:38,820 --> 00:41:47,250 | friends is what sell so I take and sell side taken shift in market structure. There's your model 2022. It doesn't work, it's nonsense, wrong, you can't read a |
| 251 | 00:41:47,250 --> 00:41:57,030 | chart Fairbury you get rallies up do a price swing measurement from this blow up to the high with a fit using the bodies not the wicks because the bodies tell |
| 252 | 00:41:57,030 --> 00:42:11,460 | the story, the wicks that did damage, you will get that high. So model 22 And two by the fair value gap, first profit by side and then see if you can get a |
| 253 | 00:42:11,460 --> 00:42:22,830 | runner into that inefficiency, which is hat which just happens to have that midpoint consequat encroachment and the two candle waterblock the low that's |
| 254 | 00:42:22,830 --> 00:42:32,730 | what that is right there. And if you see how beautiful as it stands right there, it's almost like it's meant to be perfect. Anyway, then the market trades lower. |
| 255 | 00:42:33,330 --> 00:42:42,240 | But now I want to take you into a little discussion about the rules I gave you. Okay. If you were buying Mr. Vega, is this a qualified ICT? Silver Bullet trade? |
| 256 | 00:42:42,510 --> 00:42:59,730 | Yes. Why? Let's assume for a moment that you're trading and getting in at 1.0782. Okay, with spread? Does it move or can it move? 15 points higher? Close? |
| 257 | 00:42:59,730 --> 00:43:08,130 | Yeah, we're in about Costco encroachments? I would say yeah, that would qualify. So offers a potential for 10 pips. So this is, in my opinion, this would meet |
| 258 | 00:43:08,130 --> 00:43:19,170 | the minimum criteria right there. And you don't have to have the 2022 entry. But guess what this becomes? That's a pyramid. Yep. That's a pyramid entry. I can |
| 259 | 00:43:19,170 --> 00:43:33,780 | take that. Why? Because from this low up to where anticipate price can go, we're still not at a premium. Oh, oh. So there's a time and place where I can do |
| 260 | 00:43:33,780 --> 00:43:41,670 | permitting. But if it meets a criteria that says no, I can't it's too rich and have a premium or discount relative to the trade I'm in, then I can't add, I |
| 261 | 00:43:41,670 --> 00:43:49,080 | just have to stick to what I have and let it run. Yes, I've said this in other places, not just here. Okay. There's a logic that I follow every single time I |
| 262 | 00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:57,330 | do these things. It's the same principles being used. You just don't know what they are. Because you've probably watched a handful of videos, and you're not |
| 263 | 00:43:57,330 --> 00:44:03,210 | keeping good notes. And you have to take notes, folks, this stuff is not going to be taught to you in a five minute training, you're not going to find a video |
| 264 | 00:44:03,210 --> 00:44:10,920 | or somebody on YouTube that's going to make this faster for you. They can talk with a lot less words and make shorter duration videos, but they're leaving out |
| 265 | 00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:27,330 | the real meat. They don't even know it yet. So this was a qualified ICT silver bullet for the long side up into a fair pay gap in efficiency. And then the |
| 266 | 00:44:27,540 --> 00:44:40,650 | changing state of delivery right there stopping dead in its tracks in the market breaks lower. We have a very, very gap in here. Now notice this 10 o'clock. It |
| 267 | 00:44:40,650 --> 00:44:52,770 | forms and trades into it at 10 o'clock. Yes, you can trade that. That does not get a pass because that figure of a gap has to form in between 10 and 11. This |
| 268 | 00:44:52,770 --> 00:45:05,310 | happens to go right into the gap that's right there. It's trading right into it at 10 o'clock. Remember the entry the entry must be taken between 10 and 11. The |
| 269 | 00:45:05,310 --> 00:45:15,120 | fair value got could actually occur before 10 o'clock. The entry must be taken between 10 and 11. But what happens if I can get in and eliminate one, you're |
| 270 | 00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:27,270 | not following the rules. But what happens if I can get an entry at 957? You're not following the rules. So whatever results you get caught luck, because you're |
| 271 | 00:45:27,270 --> 00:45:38,700 | not following the rules. If you when you messed it up, you got lucky. If you lose, you deserved it. How's that for logic? So now we have the market trading |
| 272 | 00:45:38,700 --> 00:45:48,390 | up into that order block where the changes stated delivery is where it pricing stop, it's also consequent correction of the imbalance. This becomes what now in |
| 273 | 00:45:48,390 --> 00:46:00,480 | inversion fair value again. What? Yeah, everything now shifts bearish, moves lower. So now what can we use? We can use this low here. Why this low? Why don't |
| 274 | 00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:10,200 | you use this low, Michael, because this low only went there to the high, this low starts to run up into that inefficiencies constant consequent courtrand. And |
| 275 | 00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:15,960 | the change in state delivery where the bearish order block is on that two consecutive closed candles on the 15 minute chart. That's what this level is |
| 276 | 00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:28,350 | here. So when we're running up into that, that low right there, that's your trigger for a shift in market structure. It does. So here. So now we wait. Do we |
| 277 | 00:46:28,350 --> 00:46:41,220 | have an inefficiency? Or if everybody got you have to know? No? No, yes. never comes back up into it. So now we have what we have a breakaway gap. Now we have |
| 278 | 00:46:41,250 --> 00:46:51,990 | a fair pay gap form. This right here is an evolving Silver Bullet just like I gave the video of you have to know where price is wanting to go. If you don't |
| 279 | 00:46:51,990 --> 00:46:59,610 | have that you're doomed. I don't care what you trade with, who taught you what what indicators you have? I don't care. Okay, unless you know where price is |
| 280 | 00:46:59,610 --> 00:47:07,680 | trying to gravitate towards. Everything you try to do or use is going to fail you write that down in your journal, folks, because that's the gospel, you will |
| 281 | 00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:18,720 | absolutely lose. Unless you know where price needs to try to reprice to, it's either running for liquidity, that means it stops or buy stops above the old |
| 282 | 00:47:18,780 --> 00:47:28,140 | highs or sell stops below old lows. So if we use that logic here, we're thinking that this is an inversion, fair value gap. It's hit a change in state delivery, |
| 283 | 00:47:28,140 --> 00:47:35,820 | not waterblock. It's moving lower, never shift in market structure. No inefficiencies until we get to here and it doesn't feel it. We have a |
| 284 | 00:47:36,030 --> 00:47:47,730 | inefficiency here if everybody got and we trade right up into it there. Right there is an entry. What would you aim for? Well, you have this low here and you |
| 285 | 00:47:47,730 --> 00:47:59,820 | have this low here and you have these lows down here. These are relatively equal. But now you have to filter in that same 15 Pip filter from this entry 15 |
| 286 | 00:47:59,820 --> 00:48:09,870 | pips lower in this vicinity here, you could, you could target that low, you could target that low here. And that would be a silver bullet entry, that could |
| 287 | 00:48:09,870 --> 00:48:17,490 | be a first profit. And then you can get a runner to get the relative equal lows here. And it fills it later in the day in lunchtime at 1215. So getting short |
| 288 | 00:48:17,490 --> 00:48:25,890 | here, inside the gap using a limit order. And I can talk this way, because I gave it to you in a real execution, you watched me walk you through it, I called |
| 289 | 00:48:25,890 --> 00:48:36,150 | it and the first way you got like this one here didn't fill, it didn't get an entry. But I let the market evolve my setup into a lower silver bullet. And the |
| 290 | 00:48:36,150 --> 00:48:44,280 | spread alone got me in go watch that video again, that you can't get any more razor precise than that. And it was not a market order. So I'm telling you tell |
| 291 | 00:48:44,280 --> 00:48:55,080 | you that just because I market in the show you examples, I'm trying to do that to give you a greater sense of comfort, okay, because when I show really high |
| 292 | 00:48:55,080 --> 00:49:03,390 | precision entries, and they're just really, really too good to believe. You get these jokers out there, they'll say, oh, you know, it's fake. I'm using it for |
| 293 | 00:49:03,390 --> 00:49:12,120 | server, which I'm not using it for. And then I'm gaming trading view, trading view that come forward and tell everybody, I'm faking it. If I'm doing it faking |
| 294 | 00:49:12,120 --> 00:49:20,760 | it, they can come out and tell me tell the whole world they follow me on Twitter, you're listening, okay? The guy just reached out to me on on the |
| 295 | 00:49:20,760 --> 00:49:28,740 | messaging system and email me to listen, you have my permission, okay, if I didn't take those trades that you're seeing, and they're not real, you tell the |
| 296 | 00:49:28,740 --> 00:49:41,700 | world that I fake that. Okay, because believe me, if I was faking it, they would tell you but that entry here runs through the liquidity here and here. Right |
| 297 | 00:49:41,700 --> 00:49:49,710 | there so entry here and then you would be filled right there. Now these are not actual trade entries. I'm just showing you by where you would have the turning |
| 298 | 00:49:49,710 --> 00:49:56,100 | points where your orders would be filled. So these are not executions. I don't want you to read that and think that these are executions that are not what I'm |
| 299 | 00:49:56,100 --> 00:50:05,070 | referring to as recording I did the other day all right. s&p, we're gonna go through this really quick because my battery's low, and I didn't bring my cable |
| 300 | 00:50:05,070 --> 00:50:17,100 | down here. We're, we're gambling stuff if it dies this know that it's a cliffhanger waterblock I think that we could potentially if we get some really |
| 301 | 00:50:17,100 --> 00:50:25,860 | crazy, movement lower, there's a lot of talk about debt ceiling, not being raised and maybe default and all that stuff. If that occurs that could |
| 302 | 00:50:25,860 --> 00:50:33,480 | potentially send us down into this area here and maybe lower. I'm not trying to predict that I just have these levels. These are my points of interest on my |
| 303 | 00:50:33,480 --> 00:50:34,080 | chart now. |
| 304 | 00:50:36,539 --> 00:50:44,369 | On the daily chart, okay, we have a phased array that we traded down into today, in the order block here on the daily chart I have that noted. So I think that we |
| 305 | 00:50:44,369 --> 00:50:53,429 | can drop into the how we trade there is important going forward. I liked the fact that we went up to the consequent crush on this wick here a few days ago |
| 306 | 00:50:53,489 --> 00:51:06,239 | and then worked lower. But this in my opinion, is the last line of defense for the bulls If we lose this area here sellside down here is my interest. Es the |
| 307 | 00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:14,249 | other day I mentioned on Twitter, I wasn't confident that we had a high in place yet because I was looking at this divergence between ES and NASDAQ. Now here, |
| 308 | 00:51:14,249 --> 00:51:22,559 | that's what these are. But then we have a much more pronounced and prominent s&p Divergence which NASDAQ went higher relatively speaking, s&p failed to do so. |
| 309 | 00:51:23,099 --> 00:51:33,899 | And we move down into this inefficiency and sell stops that's overall at a draw on liquidity. That's what you want to see in price action. Right here is the |
| 310 | 00:51:33,899 --> 00:51:43,949 | hourly chart of small little Faraday gap and here we trade up into that work lower bearish order block right there. Look at this boom, boom, boom multiple |
| 311 | 00:51:43,949 --> 00:51:55,889 | times and then displace into the downside trading into sell side inefficiency as well. deep discount this down here, the sell side has my attention if we use |
| 312 | 00:51:55,889 --> 00:52:05,099 | this as an inversion fair value gap. I don't know for certain what we're gonna do tomorrow morning I have to wait and see what we do at the opening Alright, so |
| 313 | 00:52:05,099 --> 00:52:16,829 | here is the 15 minute chart currently weak open and get high currently we could even get low there's that fear breakup I mentioned. Salsa was taken |
| 314 | 00:52:17,069 --> 00:52:25,889 | consolidation inside of the new week opening gap and then broke aggressively lower fare a gap trade off into consequent encouragement remember that old idea |
| 315 | 00:52:25,889 --> 00:52:32,489 | of class Support Resistance here's that low how you know that low is going to be support turn resistance because you have the inefficiency right there trades up |
| 316 | 00:52:32,489 --> 00:52:48,239 | into it and sells off down into the in balance and fear a gap and sell side liquidity waterblock through those candles holding price back near the 70% level |
| 317 | 00:52:48,329 --> 00:52:57,029 | of the range that makes the new equivalent gap sustained bounce by selling efficiency consequent encouragement midpoint of that sells off waterblock look |
| 318 | 00:52:57,029 --> 00:53:04,589 | at the opening price there hits it delivering inefficiency that we're underneath right now. I don't know because I've been talking we could be above this right |
| 319 | 00:53:04,589 --> 00:53:12,449 | now. I don't know what price is doing. I'm talking to you through a laptop down in my basement, my trading offices two floors up. So I'm watching to see what we |
| 320 | 00:53:12,449 --> 00:53:27,689 | do and tomorrow. I favor downside but I don't know how we're gonna deliver every night. This is regular trading hours. Okay, there is the opening range gap here |
| 321 | 00:53:27,899 --> 00:53:36,899 | and that's this shaded right there. Okay, and notice we only worked at lower 50% of that and left this portion open. So if it does trade higher, it will probably |
| 322 | 00:53:36,899 --> 00:53:44,939 | want to go up into this section of price action there. And if it does, then we could probably resume going higher if it finds support at the opening range gap |
| 323 | 00:53:44,939 --> 00:53:54,809 | high until we prove otherwise until we get above New weak opening gap low. I'm bearish. That makes it pretty simple. That's it. And here's the opening range |
| 324 | 00:53:54,809 --> 00:54:03,239 | gap on the five minute chart. inefficiency is a sell side unbalanced by selling efficiency consequent coaching which is midpoint of that sells off waterblock |
| 325 | 00:54:03,239 --> 00:54:11,669 | that was on the higher timeframe for are dropped into this one. And we're digging into that so it needs an opinion probably run up into a short term |
| 326 | 00:54:11,669 --> 00:54:24,539 | premium. And then want to see maybe another wipe out on the lows because this is this is too smooth down here for me. Like those types of lows. I again, rules |
| 327 | 00:54:24,689 --> 00:54:36,629 | you'd have 10 handles range. Here is 10 o'clock in the morning am silver bullet to 11 o'clock and I had the shutter said 11 o'clock. I'm sorry. So 10 to 11. |
| 328 | 00:54:37,379 --> 00:54:49,709 | Here you have a favorite you got trades up into it now. Where is 10 handles from that point. 10 handles is at this low or lower? Can it get kind of get below |
| 329 | 00:54:49,709 --> 00:54:56,849 | that? I don't believe it can because we've already had this low taken out with this low and then we have a higher low and then we have this low here. So we |
| 330 | 00:54:56,849 --> 00:55:07,799 | went down into this and we're inside of that oh Bring range gap. And we're consolidating. So this would not be a silver bullet trade that could meet the |
| 331 | 00:55:07,799 --> 00:55:15,959 | criteria. We're gonna we're gonna fall off army doesn't meet the criteria. So this is a silver bullet trade that could be Scout to take out these lows here. |
| 332 | 00:55:16,589 --> 00:55:31,289 | But not not a classic, ideal 10 handle setup for the pm session this one does. We had the order block trading up until here, shift in market structure, ICT |
| 333 | 00:55:31,289 --> 00:55:41,279 | silver bullet here, a second one here if you want to go after it 10 handles is this discount fair value got. So from here to here, there's 10 handles or more. |
| 334 | 00:55:41,399 --> 00:55:52,049 | So there's silver bullet and this silver bullet is high probability and it delivers. So you have to know that there are rules to these things, folks, and |
| 335 | 00:55:52,079 --> 00:55:58,709 | you can't just simply say because you can't do it, it doesn't work. It's in there every single day, every single day. And if you get behind the rules I gave |
| 336 | 00:55:58,709 --> 00:56:05,939 | you, it'll serve you well. That's it for this one. Well, I got time to say so thanks for watching and I'll talk to you next time. Be safe |