ICT YT - 2023-05-15 - ICT Mentorship - ICT Silver Bullet Time Based Trading Model
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-05-15 13:41
Outline
00:06 - Introduction to my Silver Bullet Trade setup.
- Time-based algorithmic trading model for all asset classes.
- Ticks, points and pips for index futures.
02:25 - What is the relationship between the two?
- 10 handles for indices is the same as 20 pips in forex.
- High probability ictsilverbolt trade setups.
03:57 - A framework for many ict silver bullet setups are as follows.
- Framework for ict silver bullet setups.
- Previous session highs and lows as draws on liquidity.
05:48 - The fair value gap has taken the throne -.
- The fair value gap has taken the throne.
- The 2022 st mentorship youtube model.
07:37 - The importance of knowing where the price is going to go next.
- Determine the next draw in the action.
- First ict silver bullet setup.
10:08 - What’s the fair value gap?
- Optimal trade entry in a bearish market.
- Sell-side liquidity pool.
12:06 - What does the ict silver bullet look like?
- Is it possible to get to 10 handles.
- Am session, new york time.
14:22 - Introduction to the PM session.
- Market structure and fair value gap.
- PM session silverball setup, price action.
15:59 - If you don’t have enough to trade this pattern, you have to test it while you’re learning to read price action.
- Closing thoughts for new traders.
- How to back-test a pattern.
17:15 - The importance of having a specific 60 minute window of opportunity.
- How to find something that repeats every trading day.
- The 60 minute window of opportunity.
Transcript
| 1 | 00:00:06,779 --> 00:00:15,989 | ICT: Well welcome back books. Alright, so we're gonna be talking about my ICT Silver Bullet trade setup, which is a time based algorithmic trading model for |
| 2 | 00:00:15,989 --> 00:00:17,069 | all asset classes. |
| 3 | 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:40,740 | All right before I get into it, let's discuss ticks, points, and pips. And the relationship to Forex to futures. When it says Silver Bullet trade, the minimum |
| 4 | 00:00:40,740 --> 00:00:55,440 | trade framework should be 10 points, or 40 ticks for index futures or indices. The minimum trade framework should be 15 pips, for forex pairs for forex |
| 5 | 00:00:55,440 --> 00:01:09,090 | traders. Now, an amplification and that is this framework is the best case price delivery, that you expect to see not underscore, not your actual trade entry to |
| 6 | 00:01:09,090 --> 00:01:18,600 | exit range. So in other words, if everything were to be perfect, and you're not trying to be perfect with your entry, you're not trying to be perfect with your |
| 7 | 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:33,030 | exit. If the entirety of the move that you foresee is likely to unfold next, in whatever asset class you're trading, that range is the framework. But you're |
| 8 | 00:01:33,030 --> 00:01:42,390 | going to be looking for a trade within that framework that doesn't demand you to have the highest degree of entry precision or exit precision. Over time, you'll |
| 9 | 00:01:42,390 --> 00:01:52,350 | get better with both of those entry and exit. But now, using a model, you want to have something that's a little bit more forgiving. So for index futures, if |
| 10 | 00:01:52,350 --> 00:02:03,780 | you're trading indices, the minimum framework is it has to at least offer the potential for 10 points, or 10 handles, which is equivalent to 14 Six. The same |
| 11 | 00:02:03,780 --> 00:02:16,620 | would be said for forex, the framework should be a minimum of 15 pips for the pair you're trying to trade. So if you can't work out a range move at least 15 |
| 12 | 00:02:16,620 --> 00:02:28,350 | pips, the trade is probably not high probability and will be better suited to be left alone and let it pass or look, look elsewhere. 10 handles for indices is |
| 13 | 00:02:28,350 --> 00:02:40,080 | the same to me as 20 pips in forex, five handles for indices is the same to me as 10 pips in forex. So in times with my tweets or comments in my videos and |
| 14 | 00:02:40,170 --> 00:02:50,160 | whatnot, folks that reach out to me through trading view, little messaging system they are there. I ignore majority of everyone that sends me messages |
| 15 | 00:02:50,190 --> 00:03:02,280 | trading the let's get to many of them. And the question that keeps popping up recently is if I'm teaching predominantly presently, at the time in 2023, in the |
| 16 | 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:14,250 | YouTube mentorship, which is free by the way. The question is, if I'm looking for five handles of price movement in the E Mini s&p, what would that translate |
| 17 | 00:03:14,250 --> 00:03:27,870 | for those that are trading Forex? That would be the equivalent of 10 pips. If I'm looking for 10 handles in indices or trading stock index futures if you're a |
| 18 | 00:03:27,870 --> 00:03:36,900 | forex trader, you will be looking for the equivalent of 20 pips in your forex pair. Suddenly, there's the the relationship between the two. These are |
| 19 | 00:03:36,900 --> 00:03:43,410 | essential frameworks to what I deem high probability ICT Silverbolt trade setups |
| 20 | 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:58,980 | Alright, so let's talk about and this is really the gem of this presentation really, types of iced tea Silver Bullet setups. Now a framework for many ICT |
| 21 | 00:03:58,980 --> 00:04:11,100 | Silver Bullet setups are as follows but they're not limited to previous day high or low draw on liquidity, meaning yesterday's high, if we're bullish, there's |
| 22 | 00:04:11,100 --> 00:04:20,760 | going to be buy stops or Basa liquidity rescue mother, we will be looking for a run to previous day's high that expansion is the drop in liquidity for buyside. |
| 23 | 00:04:21,330 --> 00:04:33,990 | Vice versa, if we are bearish, we're expecting lower prices throughout the week. And we see the previous day's low as having sellside liquidity or sell stocks |
| 24 | 00:04:33,990 --> 00:04:45,510 | below. So we would look for potential setups that would expand down into that liquidity, previous session highs and lows as draws on liquidity. Meaning that |
| 25 | 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:54,600 | let's say you're sitting down from the charts and it's the am session in New York. You would look at the high end or low on the London session that just |
| 26 | 00:04:54,600 --> 00:05:06,930 | passed and look to a run on liquidity or retest of those old Lows or highs. Previous weekly high or low as a draw on liquidity. If we're bullish, we would |
| 27 | 00:05:06,930 --> 00:05:17,550 | look for your run above the previous week's high. Or if we're bearish, we would look for a run below the previous week's low. Another would be returning to a |
| 28 | 00:05:17,550 --> 00:05:31,680 | current or old new weak opening gap. So that will be treated as a drawn liquidity or an expansion away from the current or old new weak opening gap. And |
| 29 | 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:40,830 | a classic ICT optimal trade entry, which has been for the longest time while doing his YouTube channel. That's always been the classic flagship pattern. But |
| 30 | 00:05:40,830 --> 00:05:51,300 | now we've seen many more models and approaches so it can't be referred to as the flag ship pattern anymore. I think the fair value gap has taken the throne |
| 31 | 00:05:51,300 --> 00:06:02,490 | there. confluence of the 2022 st mentorship YouTube model, which I taught for free on this YouTube channel, meaning that you're drawing liquidity could be a |
| 32 | 00:06:02,670 --> 00:06:11,730 | inefficiency of the marketplace when we're bullish, or a inefficiency below price when we're bearish, which means that if we're bearish, we could be aiming |
| 33 | 00:06:11,730 --> 00:06:20,010 | for a discount boss Annabelle sells on inefficiency or some measure of fear of a gap that will be below current price action that will be your draw when bearish. |
| 34 | 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:27,960 | Or if you're bullish, you would be looking for a inefficiency above current price action, which would be many times in the form of a SEBI or sell side |
| 35 | 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:37,380 | amounts bias and inefficiency, or variant of fair value get above current price action. So you can treat that or, as I mentioned all the previous ones above |
| 36 | 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:48,120 | number seven here, all of them being equally available in terms of probability if it is in the market at the time, not all of these are going to be a factor. |
| 37 | 00:06:49,050 --> 00:06:59,790 | And there'll be times where the previous week's high has already been raided that morning. And looking at it again may not be the ideal scenario. So they |
| 38 | 00:06:59,790 --> 00:07:10,920 | might require you to look at a higher timeframe, liquidity pool, or inefficiency above price if if you're if you're bullish. So I can list a myriad of different |
| 39 | 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:24,060 | scenarios. But I think this list is good enough to give the students of my YouTube channel a great deal of latitude. So that way, you can look at the |
| 40 | 00:07:24,150 --> 00:07:34,740 | potential for any one of these situations, not all of them will exist. On any given day, not all of these will be in the charts. But most days one of these |
| 41 | 00:07:34,740 --> 00:07:44,160 | criteria will be in play. Don't take my word for it, go back through your price action, you'll see what I'm saying here is in fact truth. Obvious, obviously, |
| 42 | 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:53,580 | the main emphasis is determining the next most likely draw in the price action. So where's the price likely to go to next, that's the number one goal for all of |
| 43 | 00:07:53,580 --> 00:08:02,040 | my students is to focus on that skill set first, because all the entries and the exits and such, that is the least important thing because you don't know where |
| 44 | 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:09,330 | price is trying to go to. From the time you're sitting in and looking at your charts. Whatever analysis concept you use is probably going to fail you. |
| 45 | 00:08:14,190 --> 00:08:24,780 | Alright, let's talk about our first ICT Silver Bullet setup and the time at which it forms. Now again, this is a time based model. That means these things |
| 46 | 00:08:24,810 --> 00:08:37,860 | are linked to a specific 60 minute interval or window and time, every single trading day, this pattern will form it may not be in the forex pair that you're |
| 47 | 00:08:37,860 --> 00:08:48,690 | trading, it may not be in the futures contract that you're trading, it may not be in the asset that you're specifically looking at, but it does form every |
| 48 | 00:08:48,690 --> 00:09:01,890 | single day. First setup time is 3am to 4am. Now, we're always referring to New York local time. So whenever I'm referring to a specific time, whether it be a |
| 49 | 00:09:01,890 --> 00:09:11,760 | window of time or a very specific time of the day, you have to have your charts calibrated to New York local time, wherever that is whenever that is in your |
| 50 | 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:20,730 | area. If we're observing daylight savings time, then you observe daylight savings time so it removes all the uncertainty the confusion, whatever it is in |
| 51 | 00:09:20,730 --> 00:09:35,460 | New York that local time, that's what you're using when you're charting. This is the London Open silver bullet. So what we're looking for is a classic ICT fair |
| 52 | 00:09:35,460 --> 00:09:50,490 | value gap, the form between 3am and 4am, New York local time. The factor that which you are going to lean heavily on is the skillset of knowing where price is |
| 53 | 00:09:50,490 --> 00:10:02,550 | going to go to okay and it's not necessarily the bias. You just predominantly have to consider where the next Roll on liquidity is it going to go above the |
| 54 | 00:10:02,550 --> 00:10:11,550 | marketplace for buy stops or trade into inefficiency above current price action, if you're bullish. In this case, the market was bearish, it was looking to go |
| 55 | 00:10:11,550 --> 00:10:20,100 | lower and there's an obvious sell side liquidity pool resting below that old swing low. And between three o'clock, and four, the market created a fair value |
| 56 | 00:10:20,100 --> 00:10:34,050 | gap. We had a shift in market structure below this low here. So this is your classic what optimal trade entry fair value gap here, the market shows the |
| 57 | 00:10:34,050 --> 00:10:45,540 | willingness to support this idea, with the body staying inside that gap. See that now at 4am Does pump more time just above it. But that's fine, it would |
| 58 | 00:10:45,540 --> 00:10:55,170 | have never stopped me out with the rules I teach with all of my models here especially the optimal trade entry. The idea for this would be to look for a |
| 59 | 00:10:55,170 --> 00:11:09,930 | minimum of what market is is two futures contracts that means does it offer the potential for 10 handles so from here, down to here, trading below this low not |
| 60 | 00:11:09,930 --> 00:11:21,330 | just to the low to it and through it. So it's it's reasonable to anticipate a potential run of 10 handles, we don't require that but going short inside that |
| 61 | 00:11:21,330 --> 00:11:35,280 | fair Vega the formation of the ICT Silver Bullet the entry is taken inside of that 60 minute window between 3am and 4am it does not mean that the trade is |
| 62 | 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:46,110 | entered and is exited in the same 60 minute window know what your trade many times will be held over the four o'clock hour and into five o'clock in the |
| 63 | 00:11:46,110 --> 00:11:55,560 | morning and maybe even rolling over into the New York session opening at seven eight o'clock New York little time but in this instance, we will be aiming for |
| 64 | 00:11:55,560 --> 00:12:06,600 | this low and the sell sell liquidity by resting below it. So does it offer from this entry here down to here at least five handles for you to book in profit. It |
| 65 | 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:21,630 | does. So the framework was could it get to 10 it could do 10 We don't require that shorting interfere Vega covering at the old low allows for at least five |
| 66 | 00:12:21,630 --> 00:12:27,360 | handles and that's what the ICT silver bullet is. This is my actual model for my son Cameron |
| 67 | 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:45,480 | alright the second one in our continuing list of ICT Silverbolt setups is the am session. Now this one is focusing on at 10am to 11am Always New York local time. |
| 68 | 00:12:46,200 --> 00:13:01,320 | And let's take a closer look at this for now. Okay, so we are looking at the E Mini s&p Once more. And the idea is between 10am near full time and 11am We wait |
| 69 | 00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:12,390 | for when the markets bearish relative equal lows their sell side resting below that. You have a fair Vega bearish Vega trades up into it between 10 o'clock and |
| 70 | 00:13:12,390 --> 00:13:24,420 | nine o'clock we can sell short there does it offer 10 handles? Well from 4146 or there abouts to 4136 that range doesn't even get us down into this low let alone |
| 71 | 00:13:24,420 --> 00:13:34,260 | below that one. So it obviously meets the criteria of a minimum of 10 handles and framework it does not mean you're trying to get 10 handles it just means |
| 72 | 00:13:34,260 --> 00:13:44,250 | that it offers 10 handles. So going short here, collecting five handles that could have been done inside of the scope of that 60 minute window, not that |
| 73 | 00:13:44,250 --> 00:13:55,110 | you're trying to do that, as I mentioned briefly a moment ago, the trade is many times held in duration longer than the window that framework an entry is derived |
| 74 | 00:13:55,110 --> 00:14:06,240 | from so it's not a in and out within the same hour. It means that you're looking for the setup the form to get you into the trade within the scope of 10 o'clock |
| 75 | 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:22,950 | to 11 o'clock New York time. Alright, and finally we have our last iced tea Silverbolt here which is framed on 2pm to 3pm. New York local time. And this is |
| 76 | 00:14:22,950 --> 00:14:34,770 | the pm session st Silverball setup. And this one here we can see that we traded down into a higher timeframe 15 minute discount fair value gap and you're |
| 77 | 00:14:34,950 --> 00:14:44,310 | encouraged to go into your charts to see that is in fact what we have here. The market trades down into it shifts higher a swing has been broken to the upside |
| 78 | 00:14:44,310 --> 00:14:53,670 | so we have a shift in market structure and a fair value gap. So any retracements back down into that the body's staying inside that the wicks did damage but the |
| 79 | 00:14:53,670 --> 00:15:03,120 | body's telling you the narrative the story is told by the bodies so it's telling you it's respecting this boss Annabelle. So Senator urgency or Vega. Going into |
| 80 | 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:10,860 | two o'clock, we rallied. And we created a small little fear vague out there, the market drops down into that before taking out the relative equal highs by side |
| 81 | 00:15:10,860 --> 00:15:19,980 | liquidity and or returning back to a premium sell side and balanced by some efficiency or fair value gap that would be above the market here and here. So if |
| 82 | 00:15:19,980 --> 00:15:30,870 | it's going to rally here, the framework would be on the optimal trade entry here. And taking the first view of a gap that forms inside of entry prices to |
| 83 | 00:15:31,140 --> 00:15:40,680 | between two o'clock and three o'clock that's happening right there. So from here, all the way up to here, does it offer 10 handles? Yes, it's actually |
| 84 | 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:53,250 | offering 12 or more. So this entry here is a high probability condition that lends well to a run into inefficiency in the premium and to take vasan out as |
| 85 | 00:15:53,250 --> 00:16:04,410 | well. So that is a very handsome run there. And trading between two o'clock, and three o'clock. Now, some closing thoughts. If you're new to my channeling, and |
| 86 | 00:16:04,410 --> 00:16:12,480 | you're seeing this, that you don't have enough to trade this pattern, is you have to back test it while you're learning how to read price action, and |
| 87 | 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:21,840 | determine where the next draw on liquidity is going to be for the next price swing for whatever asset class you're trading. So don't be discouraged if it |
| 88 | 00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:31,410 | seems like it's this cherry picked. And there it is because actually traded many of these types of setups, either with calling it out on Twitter, or mentioning |
| 89 | 00:16:31,410 --> 00:16:41,820 | it in passing while he's actually doing executions and recording it. So these patterns these things form. And I called a few of them real time on Twitter last |
| 90 | 00:16:41,820 --> 00:16:52,950 | week, and many of you much to my disapproval because I don't like when you take the setups as a trade setup signal, or I don't want you to view it like that. |
| 91 | 00:16:53,310 --> 00:17:03,780 | But many of the followers on my Twitter feed actually showed they took the trade on hold out with using a silver bullet. So the pattern works is highly highly |
| 92 | 00:17:03,780 --> 00:17:13,020 | consistent, it's extremely high probability, we have all these factors in mind, and they are present in price action, it gives you a role based idea to look for |
| 93 | 00:17:13,050 --> 00:17:22,380 | a time based model. So time and price is being utilized here, which is where the focus of my analysis concepts and teaching is a mentor teaching my students how |
| 94 | 00:17:22,380 --> 00:17:30,480 | to find something that repeats, you can't get anything better than having a specific 60 minute window of opportunity that forms every single trading day, |
| 95 | 00:17:31,110 --> 00:17:42,240 | every single trading day, one of these setups are going to form. Now, if you don't have a plethora of markets to follow, ideally one or two, it that's why |
| 96 | 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:49,200 | you're first learning how to do it. Even if you grow to a point of interest, we have a lot of markets, a trading lot of pairs or a lot of futures markets and |
| 97 | 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:58,470 | such, you'll find that over time, the longer your career will be, you'll your list will reduce down to one or two at worst, maybe three if you want to be a |
| 98 | 00:17:58,470 --> 00:18:09,600 | deviant. But my advice is for you to be a specialist try to focus on one market, because if you can do that, one of these specific ICT Silver Bullet setups will |
| 99 | 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:17,400 | form every single day. Meaning that if you just follow one market, just one market, you can get your setups there, you can make your bread and butter you |
| 100 | 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:26,160 | can make your ends meet. You'll have losing trades, okay, it's gonna happen. But by far and large, you can do things with one market. And if you don't get this |
| 101 | 00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:33,300 | set up in London, you wait for it in the am session. If you don't get it there, you wait for it in the pm session. But every single market, every single trading |
| 102 | 00:18:33,300 --> 00:18:43,110 | day will offer one of these. So you have to be disciplined, you have to focus and look for these ideas that form in price action. And should you do that, you |
| 103 | 00:18:43,110 --> 00:18:50,160 | will need to look at nothing further than this. You don't need to go into any other models. You don't need to go into any other teachings. You don't have to |
| 104 | 00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:58,050 | come back to my YouTube channel. You'll never have to do any of that stuff anymore because you'll be independently minded and your analysis will be in |
| 105 | 00:18:58,050 --> 00:19:05,910 | uniquely yours. You won't have to look at external sources like me or someone else to provide that to you. You'll trust yourself which is a very empowering |
| 106 | 00:19:05,910 --> 00:19:14,850 | state of mind. And that's always been my target and go with all of my students. So hopefully found this one insightful and tough talk to you next time. Be safe. |