ICT YT - 2023-05-08 - NWOG - New Week Opening Gap - Part 2
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-05-14 06:21
Outline
00:12 - Finding real value in price action -.
- Finding real value in action.
- How pivot numbers act as a magnet for traders.
02:16 - Opening prices are not random price events -.
- Drum liquidity and magnetism of new weak opening gaps.
- Opening gap for march 5 2023.
05:00 - What is a New Week Opening Gap?
- Closer look at the new week opening gap.
- How the gap has been treated.
07:07 - What is the current in this fractal?
- Gravitating back and forth around the new week opening gap.
- Training signatures with the new weak opening gap
09:16 - Looking at a fractal of the price action.
- Breaking down the new week opening gap.
- The hourly chart of the current market.
11:21 - When there is a convergence of multiple new opening gaps in close proximity to one another, the markets tend to enter a range bound environment.
- The importance of being a scalper in a consolidation market.
- New weak opening gaps.
13:33 - Current fractal in price action with new opening gap.
- Keep one chart separate as a template and label it as new opening gap.
- Current fractal in action.
15:18 - How the market gyrates around this week’s opening gap.
- New week opening gap from march 3, 2003.
- How the market reacts to the gap.
17:54 - How many new week opening gaps do you use in your charts?
- How many new week opening gaps to use in charts.
- 60-day look back and 60-day view forward.
Transcript
| 1 | 00:00:12,809 --> 00:00:24,209 | ICT: Well, hello folks, welcome back. This is the second part of my ICT Newick opening gap. closer look at this concept |
| 2 | 00:00:29,700 --> 00:00:43,260 | finding real value in price action. So when you look at price action, if you strip it back to retail logic for a moment, traders are usually trying to buy |
| 3 | 00:00:43,260 --> 00:00:57,030 | support in China short resistance. And my agenda has always been trying to get to the root cause or the underpinnings of the marketplace and look for like |
| 4 | 00:00:57,390 --> 00:01:09,600 | drawls on liquidity, areas that price should support or resist. And the logic behind it should be sound, not some randomly selected, support or resistance |
| 5 | 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:22,740 | level, be it horizontal or diagonal trend support or resistance, which I'm not a fan of. But if you look at this example here, each one of these sets of |
| 6 | 00:01:22,740 --> 00:01:34,110 | horizontal lines is an individual new week opening up. You can see how price gravitates towards them, it may pass through them, like a hot knife through |
| 7 | 00:01:34,110 --> 00:01:46,110 | butter, or reach them consolidate around inside of them and then expand to the next one. If you've ever used pivot numbers, okay, that used to be the floor |
| 8 | 00:01:46,110 --> 00:01:59,520 | traders pivot numbers. I used to use them habitually. abandon them for better tools and such. But if you think about how the pivot numbers used to act, and |
| 9 | 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:10,170 | sometimes they'll do act as a magnet for price just like a draw and liquidity, equal highs, a single Hieronymus Bosch price will invariably want to reach up |
| 10 | 00:02:10,170 --> 00:02:19,440 | above that old high for the buy stops or reach down below an old low or relatively equal lows for the cell stops. So that drum liquidity, that same |
| 11 | 00:02:19,470 --> 00:02:25,320 | effect that magnetism on price is seen with new weak opening gaps. |
| 12 | 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:41,160 | We'll talk a little bit about opening prices. Now openings are not random price events. It means that wherever the first opening trade is the first tick of the |
| 13 | 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:53,280 | marketplace, when a new week opens at 6pm, New York time, that price is absolutely not random. And the proof of that is to watch how price respects it |
| 14 | 00:02:53,280 --> 00:03:03,960 | throughout the week and in the future in weeks and months ahead in the future. So I want you to think about the the importance of knowing what the opening |
| 15 | 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:12,630 | price is on Sunday. And I've taught in other lectures how it's important to take that Sunday open price and attend it through the entirety of the current trading |
| 16 | 00:03:12,630 --> 00:03:26,820 | weekly to about the start or what you're presently trading in. At the time it's recording, it's Sunday, May 7 2023. The price that we open at 6pm later on this |
| 17 | 00:03:26,850 --> 00:03:40,290 | evening. That price I will extend throughout the entirety of this trading week. But the entire new week opening gap high and low. That range will be projected |
| 18 | 00:03:40,530 --> 00:03:58,470 | in the future for many weeks. So you can see the relationship of where that opening price is here on March 5 2023 at 6pm. That opening price is what I'm |
| 19 | 00:03:58,470 --> 00:04:10,200 | annotating. So to find the opposite end of the new week opening gap, we can see where price was on the previous Friday. So we're gonna have to look at the |
| 20 | 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:26,730 | difference between these two price points here to come up with the new weak opening gap for March 5 2023. Much in the same vein that opening prices are not |
| 21 | 00:04:27,060 --> 00:04:36,600 | random price events. closing prices are not random. Now it seems like buying and selling pressure if you read all the books and listen other people talk about it |
| 22 | 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:44,610 | the talking heads in this industry that are supposedly technical analysts. They'll tell you that prices are random and no one can predict the price no one |
| 23 | 00:04:44,610 --> 00:04:54,360 | can know what price is going to do. And many times my students have watched and observe how price really respects these new opening gaps not just the very day |
| 24 | 00:04:54,360 --> 00:05:07,830 | to day form, or that particular week but weeks and months in the future. Let's take a closer look at that particular Friday, which is March 3 2023. That's the |
| 25 | 00:05:07,830 --> 00:05:20,880 | last closing price before the session ends on that Friday. So now we have two price points here. So we have the opening price on March 5, which is a Sunday, |
| 26 | 00:05:20,910 --> 00:05:33,120 | you can see that over here. And then annotating the Friday closing price. Between those two price points. That's what the new week opening gap is. So an |
| 27 | 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:46,050 | ICT new week opening gap is this very separation between the two price points now because Friday, closing price of that March 3 2023 is above where we opened |
| 28 | 00:05:46,050 --> 00:05:58,770 | on the subsequent Sunday opening price. That means that Friday's closing price is the new week opening gap for that gap. And then the opening price on Sunday |
| 29 | 00:05:58,770 --> 00:06:08,610 | is the low of this particular gap. If the roles were reversed, if we opened above, wherever we closed on Friday, then obviously these labels would be |
| 30 | 00:06:10,500 --> 00:06:11,490 | diametrically opposed. |
| 31 | 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:29,310 | Extending the new week opening gap into the future price action. So you can see here using that March 3 and march 5, new week opening gap, let's take a closer |
| 32 | 00:06:29,310 --> 00:06:47,280 | look here. Here's that same gap. And we've extended it through into the week, you can see how price has treated it as resistance, pulled away, rally through, |
| 33 | 00:06:48,630 --> 00:06:59,760 | came back down in notice that it's two passes. There's a separation teams to price point. So by psi was offered here, what's lacking sell side. So movement |
| 34 | 00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:09,150 | on the downside, there it is. So now price tries to move away on the buy side trades below the short term low here. And notice how it's gravitating back and |
| 35 | 00:07:09,150 --> 00:07:19,020 | forth around this week opening gap but still respecting it. See all the candles here individually is these are five minute candles by the way, Mark trades up |
| 36 | 00:07:19,050 --> 00:07:29,910 | find some support here and then springs higher above for buy side trades only up to a old new week opening gap trades to that new opening gap. Well, I'll leave |
| 37 | 00:07:29,910 --> 00:07:41,370 | this price levels here for you to go into your hammer to find out what that new week opening gap is anchored to. Its resistance on that new week opening gap low |
| 38 | 00:07:41,700 --> 00:07:52,620 | trade down, it goes right back over top of the at this time in that price action that is being shown this is and will be considered the current not the time of |
| 39 | 00:07:52,620 --> 00:08:03,420 | this recording. But the current in this fractal in terms of this chart, how much data is being shown. These two lines here is that week in history's current new |
| 40 | 00:08:03,420 --> 00:08:12,420 | week opening gap, it returns all we back down to it. So see how price treats these new week opening gap specifically, as magnets, okay, it creates this |
| 41 | 00:08:12,420 --> 00:08:22,650 | willingness to want to go right back to them. And it's a fair value function in price delivery. The gap is not a random event. It's engineered, it's designed. |
| 42 | 00:08:22,980 --> 00:08:36,030 | And then Smart Money uses these old reference points throughout the future week of trading the future month of trading and for several months in the future. So |
| 43 | 00:08:36,030 --> 00:08:50,670 | that market find some support here rallies away and consolidates around and drills right back down into that new weak opening gap once more. training |
| 44 | 00:08:50,670 --> 00:09:00,690 | signatures with the new weak opening gap. So if you think about when a market is indicating that it really wants to run away in trend, there's lots of things |
| 45 | 00:09:00,690 --> 00:09:11,760 | I've read over 30 years, what makes a market want to train them and consolidate. And one of the things that I've learned is with this new governing gap. You can |
| 46 | 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:24,030 | see here, this is that same week, extended forward. And then look down here. We extend the amount of time inside that new week opening gap and then aggressively |
| 47 | 00:09:24,030 --> 00:09:38,430 | runs lower. Whenever there's a sudden move away like this. That indicates that we are entering a trending market. Notice how we moved away Yes, but only one or |
| 48 | 00:09:38,430 --> 00:09:46,530 | two a new week opening gap just to find resistance and went lower and returned back to that current week's new week opening gap during the week of March |
| 49 | 00:09:46,530 --> 00:09:59,970 | 5 2023. Here, aggressive movement away. That means we're gonna be trending and look how much we trended away from that new week opening up. Now contrast that |
| 50 | 00:10:02,910 --> 00:10:12,450 | With looking at a larger fractal of that price action, here's the hourly chart. Now, here's that same new week opening gap in that movement away. Look how much |
| 51 | 00:10:12,510 --> 00:10:24,480 | price movement we seen move away using this concept. So it's allowing you to have a x ray view behind price, what is it likely to do? If we're seeing it show |
| 52 | 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:32,430 | a willingness to sharply move away from the current new week opening gap, then it's likely that we're entering a trending model. That means the market can move |
| 53 | 00:10:33,300 --> 00:10:46,200 | longer, and more magnitude behind the price moves instead of a small little scalpers consolidation market. Consolidation signatures with new weak opening |
| 54 | 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:54,900 | gap. And obviously I just mentioned how I like to look for a willingness to sharply move away above or below a new week opening gap that current new week |
| 55 | 00:10:54,900 --> 00:11:05,760 | opening apps or whatever the weekly open seperation between Sunday's open and previous weeks Friday's close of the current week or the week that come. Okay, |
| 56 | 00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:17,550 | that's always going to refer to as current new week opening gap. If price has a unwillingness to move away, and just keeps coming right back to that current new |
| 57 | 00:11:17,550 --> 00:11:25,020 | week opening gap, then we're probably going to be range bound and consolidated. So you have to be a scalper and a little bit more nimble on your trades and not |
| 58 | 00:11:25,110 --> 00:11:36,660 | expect to be trending. If you look at this example here, another characteristic of a consolidation market is when there's a multitude of new weak opening gaps |
| 59 | 00:11:36,660 --> 00:11:45,180 | converging in within that range. You can see here, this is a new weak opening gap Hi, and this is a new weak opening gap low. This is a new weak opening gap |
| 60 | 00:11:45,180 --> 00:11:54,060 | higher, this is a new weak opening gap low. I did not draw another one to show the difference between this closing price on this candle and this opening price |
| 61 | 00:11:54,060 --> 00:12:02,070 | here I use the rectangle the shaded. So that way, you can see the separations between the three new week opening gaps that's actually been shown here in this |
| 62 | 00:12:02,070 --> 00:12:11,790 | price action. So the new week opening gap for this amount of data for this particular week in history. During the week of April, the new week opening gap |
| 63 | 00:12:11,820 --> 00:12:22,410 | would be this closing price here on that Friday. And then the opening price down here on Sunday. So that shaded blue area here that represents this amount of |
| 64 | 00:12:22,410 --> 00:12:32,070 | data that's shown on the entire chart here. That would be the new week opening gap for the week, or will be considered the current new week opening gap during |
| 65 | 00:12:32,070 --> 00:12:43,980 | this week in history. It's not the present bring one right now, because we're in May. But I'm showing you in in the past how when there is a a convert |
| 66 | 00:12:43,980 --> 00:12:52,740 | convergence of multiple new opening gaps in close proximity to one another, the markets will tend to enter into this range bound environment. So it helps me as |
| 67 | 00:12:52,740 --> 00:13:00,420 | an analyst and as a mentor, teach my students and kind of point out in advance, we're going to be likely to range bound, it's not going to be a big moving |
| 68 | 00:13:00,420 --> 00:13:08,220 | market is going to be range bound, so you have to be a scalper. Now, that's not to say that there isn't significant price moves in this consolidation just means |
| 69 | 00:13:08,220 --> 00:13:16,770 | that we're not looking for one sidedness that lasts for days and weeks. We're looking for highs and lows to be violated and pulled back into the middle, which |
| 70 | 00:13:16,770 --> 00:13:26,670 | is what that blue shaded area, every decline is drawn right back inside of that blue current new week opening up every rally above it, keep seeing it come right |
| 71 | 00:13:26,670 --> 00:13:34,260 | back down into it, expand above to take out the bar. So here Where's it go right back down into that blue shaded area. If it goes beyond that, where it's gonna |
| 72 | 00:13:34,260 --> 00:13:43,440 | go, it's gonna go down below inside of the old New Age opening gap, it's in close proximity to the other two. So it's important to have them kept on your |
| 73 | 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:51,570 | chart and keep one chart that separate as a template and label it as new opening gap. And that way you can constantly refer back to where we are in terms of |
| 74 | 00:13:51,570 --> 00:13:59,550 | these like magnets on price action. Now by themselves, you don't just simply look at them and say okay, price is gonna go there, you have to incorporate |
| 75 | 00:13:59,550 --> 00:14:10,170 | other factors that I've taught on this channel and enduring the core content or what I've taught in the 2022 mentorship model. But all of these factors blended |
| 76 | 00:14:10,170 --> 00:14:19,680 | together gives you a better understanding of where price is likely to draw to not just simply an old high on old low, but incorporate these old new weak |
| 77 | 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:27,480 | opening gaps where the current New weak opening gap because the price will absolutely treat them as a magnet and go back to them retest them and then maybe |
| 78 | 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:41,610 | many times spring away to offer you a short term scout or maybe even a trending navigating price with new week opening gap. Alright, so you can see here this is |
| 79 | 00:14:41,610 --> 00:14:56,850 | actually a current fractal in price action. This is showing the Friday Non Farm Payroll for May 5 2023. You can see here we have an old low or sellside would be |
| 80 | 00:14:56,850 --> 00:15:05,970 | residing and an old low here where sellside would be written resigning, market trades down below both of them. We also traded down into an area that would be |
| 81 | 00:15:05,970 --> 00:15:18,330 | considered a fair value gap on the daily chart and also mentioned it during commentary during Twitter. Going into non farm payrolls ahead of it, actually. |
| 82 | 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:31,230 | And then the market gyrating gravitates around this new week opening gap. From March 3, now we're think about we're in May, the fifth day of May 2023. And |
| 83 | 00:15:31,230 --> 00:15:42,210 | using levels from March 3 and March fifth, just those two prices, the Friday's closing price and the Sunday's opening price after. So we're extending that |
| 84 | 00:15:42,210 --> 00:15:54,750 | throughout time, look at the sensitivity here. Look at the closing price on that candle. Look at the low neck candle. Look at the bodies of the candles in here. |
| 85 | 00:15:55,800 --> 00:16:08,400 | Look out respecting it in here. Look how all the bodies are just stacking above the high of that old new weak opening gap from March 3 of 2003. Then we move |
| 86 | 00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:12,330 | higher, come back down in. We had enough room payrolls and |
| 87 | 00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:23,700 | price rallies and gravitates to what this new is opening gap which is closest one proximity then reaches for the other above it betrays that comes back down |
| 88 | 00:16:23,700 --> 00:16:34,500 | and fills up fair value gap and expands away reaching into the consequent quarter of this wick and revisiting back into this city here. So there's bots |
| 89 | 00:16:34,500 --> 00:16:42,060 | out about that, we'll see if it wants to reach about that nonetheless, but you can see how price wants to move to these levels as a magnet that could be mile |
| 90 | 00:16:42,060 --> 00:16:50,130 | markers, or they could be ultimate targets, mile markers, meaning that it's just reaching for that one initially. And let's see if we can reach the next one. In |
| 91 | 00:16:50,130 --> 00:16:57,990 | your notes, I want you to write down that if we have a new week opening gap and it's likely to go higher, between the two of them halfway point if price can |
| 92 | 00:16:57,990 --> 00:17:07,500 | reach that far. Probabilities are that it will probably reach to the next new week opening gap in the series of the last several weeks and months of new Ico |
| 93 | 00:17:07,500 --> 00:17:24,360 | funding gaps that you would keep on your chart. Looking at it closer, here's a demand timeframe. Fear of a gap in here laid over that same March 3 2023. And |
| 94 | 00:17:24,360 --> 00:17:34,380 | March 5 2003, new week opening gap. Now you're you're wondering probably why am I using this? Well, this, this happens to be the new week opening gap that runs |
| 95 | 00:17:34,380 --> 00:17:47,250 | through all of this data. So in your notes you want to look at if you're seeing price in consolidations, or if you look at a cluster of price action. Go back |
| 96 | 00:17:47,250 --> 00:17:59,490 | through time and see what new week opening gap extends through that area. Which brings you to the question how many new week opening gaps do I use in my charts? |
| 97 | 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:09,210 | Whatever today is intriguing. I look back 60 days. Now for those who have gone through my core content, you know, in month five, which is a lot of content and |
| 98 | 00:18:09,210 --> 00:18:17,400 | a lot of material. And most people that are coming onto my wing as a developing student with my knowledge and concepts they usually tap out during that month |
| 99 | 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:30,240 | because it's pretty intense. And there's a concept that I teach the HIPAA data range. And it's the 60 day look back and the 60 day cast forward. So whatever |
| 100 | 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:41,490 | today is I look back 60 days, and whatever new week opening gaps have formed. In the last 60 days, that's how far I'll look back. And that's the maximum I have |
| 101 | 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:50,130 | on my charts. But I counsel you on the first part, during this mentorship and 23 on my YouTube channel, that you want to have at least five because that kind of |
| 102 | 00:18:50,130 --> 00:19:00,630 | gives you great now the ones that are most salient as a new developing student. As you improve and you consider more information and more data, you want to look |
| 103 | 00:19:00,630 --> 00:19:09,750 | back using that 60 day look back period that I used for if the data ranges. As I mentioned, when I taught the content to my paid students, many of them |
| 104 | 00:19:10,020 --> 00:19:17,430 | discounted, like it was of no concern, there was no reason for them to even worry about. I mean, it sounds to them. But obviously with more information |
| 105 | 00:19:17,430 --> 00:19:30,240 | being presented and ongoing education, you can see how those 60 days look back is a major impact to my analysis, what I'm using how much data am I using? Which |
| 106 | 00:19:30,360 --> 00:19:39,300 | pdra Am I going to consider still valid, you know, all those things, a fair a gap for instance, if you go back 60 days, if you have a gap 60 days to me still |
| 107 | 00:19:39,300 --> 00:19:48,600 | valid and it's still valid even if it's already been filled in. So I'm not the average person out there will could see an imbalance in price and once it trades |
| 108 | 00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:57,030 | backup and quote unquote fills it in, they're done with that. I'm not the algorithms not done with it. It's going to refer back to and respect that same |
| 109 | 00:19:57,030 --> 00:20:07,080 | old level because of the time aspect that's incorporated in algorithm price delivery so hopefully found this one insightful and I added some more insight |
| 110 | 00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:10,470 | into new opening gaps and until next time be safe |