ICT YT - 2023-04-11 - Live Tape Reading - Emini SP500 AM Session
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-04-19 18:16
Outline
01:12 - E-Mini S&P 500 Weekly Chart.
05:40 - 60-minute chart.
11:49 - The four-hour chart.
15:18 - Current New Week Opening Gap.
22:50 - The volume imbalance is the most flexible one.
27:31 - How do you know volume and balance is still in balance?
30:42 - What makes it a good range?
38:34 - Having a filter removes the likelihood of you doing a trade that’s not likely to pan out.
42:29 - Volume of the gap is low.
49:10 - Everything is doing its own thing in the ES -.
55:47 - Why not this one? -.
58:58 - What is a swing projection?
01:06:05 - How do you use this information with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq?
01:09:48 - Why partials pay 100% of the time.
01:17:32 - How do you know when a target is not going to happen?
01:25:09 - You don’t have to do anything, you have to learn how to reprice.
01:28:39 - You need to know what you don’t know -.
01:36:18 - How do you know if you’re seeing a run that would have smoked the guys that don’t take part?
01:41:54 - Are you mad about what has happened today? Are you angry that it didn’t do a specific thing? How do you correct it?
01:45:33 - No amount of drawdown is going to deter you from taking that third trade -.
01:52:45 - Your impatience is forcing you to make a decision that is not sound.
01:54:45 - What happens if the Dollar Index breaks lower?
01:59:53 - What you’re doing is conditioning yourself to.
02:05:31 - Why do we want to see the price of the candle rise?
02:08:36 - What to Expect From The Euro Today.
02:14:28 - What would expect to see now that volatility is so low.
02:16:43 - How to be patient and wait for what you want.
02:23:09 - When is it expected time when I’m teaching you?
02:28:11 - There will be a price run that runs against the daily range -.
02:31:25 - The importance of having the right mindset when doing a live stream.
02:38:27 - Everything about the market is time-driven -.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:26,040 | ICT: Good morning, folks. Hope you're all doing well. How are you today? I'm doing well. Did you miss me, I had a wonderful, relaxing, Passover, and happy |
| 2 | 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:38,280 | resurrection day for folks in the same faith as me. And not sure if you guys can hear me well, for those that are following on Twitter, if you give me a heads up |
| 3 | 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:43,380 | five by five on a tweet directly to me, that means my volume is good. And you can see my charts. |
| 4 | 00:01:47,220 --> 00:01:48,450 | Awesome, awesome. |
| 5 | 00:01:49,860 --> 00:02:03,180 | Alright, so let's get into this. We have the weekly chart here, it's been shown this is the continuous contract on trading view. I just pop this up here because |
| 6 | 00:02:03,180 --> 00:02:14,280 | it doesn't have any annotations on it. So it's allowing me to just talk you broad brush. So this is the present weak rain right now. And the previous week's |
| 7 | 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:24,750 | low. I was watching that yesterday. And I did not see it trade below that I wanted to see it sweet below that and get inside of this imbalance. And then |
| 8 | 00:02:24,750 --> 00:02:38,010 | look towards 4180. I'm maintaining a bullish stance on es in here. And I'm thinking that we might want to poke above this high here. And if you look real |
| 9 | 00:02:38,010 --> 00:02:51,420 | close, you'll see there's a volume imbalance right in here. Okay, so barring some kind of major disruption to this idea, that's kind of like what I'm working |
| 10 | 00:02:51,420 --> 00:03:03,570 | with going forward. So in layman's terms, I'm looking at this swing high on the weekly chart, we broke it, we had an attempt yesterday to try and get down this |
| 11 | 00:03:03,810 --> 00:03:17,760 | gap between this candles high here. And this candles low. So my thinking was, if we could have traded down into that, and then been willing to go higher today, |
| 12 | 00:03:18,180 --> 00:03:31,680 | then I would take my attention to obviously over here, if not the very minimum last week's high. I don't see anything here that would warrant a top. But the |
| 13 | 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:46,650 | markets really fickle right now. So it's been a little bit more challenging than normal. I'm coming off of a power a week where I've been away from the market |
| 14 | 00:03:46,650 --> 00:03:58,620 | and yesterday I was trying to work off some chart rust and get myself more or less in sync with what price is doing right now. Usually takes me a couple days |
| 15 | 00:03:58,620 --> 00:04:08,160 | to do it. So I'm not trying to be all that dogmatic about my opinions. Today I'm trying to warm up to what the markets most likely going to do and what it's |
| 16 | 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:24,360 | doing at present. So let's go down into our present contract is the E Mini s&p June contract that letter M and symbol is delivery contract and month M is June. |
| 17 | 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:37,380 | Alright, so we have this area up here has my interest, which is basically what I was drawing your attention to when the continuous contract then this old high |
| 18 | 00:04:37,380 --> 00:04:48,630 | here and where we are in relationship to yesterday. So there's here's Monday's Hi. I'd like to see it bumped that if we can trade above it, how we trade above |
| 19 | 00:04:48,630 --> 00:05:00,420 | it is influential to what I see going forward into tomorrow's FOMC price action. So we're most likely going to have a small range day still like that. See this |
| 20 | 00:05:00,420 --> 00:05:10,770 | large range here. And then we had the small range here on Monday, and then Tuesday, nothing really warrant a large range right now. So my expectations and |
| 21 | 00:05:10,770 --> 00:05:18,060 | how I teach my students is, we're not looking for a lot of excitement today. So kind of like bread and butter type setups, bread and butter setups are the real |
| 22 | 00:05:18,060 --> 00:05:26,790 | easy, get in, get your five handles and be done. Once you get it stop trading, move to the sidelines and go do something else. Not try to marry the idea, you |
| 23 | 00:05:26,790 --> 00:05:34,230 | got to be in front of charts all day long. And because of more impactful news events that are going to be later in the week, on Wednesday, and Thursday, I'll |
| 24 | 00:05:34,260 --> 00:05:43,740 | leave that to you to look at your economic calendar and see what they are. Let's go down into a 60 minute chart. |
| 25 | 00:05:50,940 --> 00:05:56,190 | Alright, so we have this Hi, this was entertaining here. |
| 26 | 00:05:59,070 --> 00:06:14,550 | And this, I mean, scrub this over so you can see where I'm drawing the levels from. So all of this in here was a four hour imbalance if I'm not mistaken. |
| 27 | 00:06:14,550 --> 00:06:26,880 | Yeah. So I use the order block here. That's what that red level is. Trade up into this city. Okay, so this imbalance between this candles, low, this candles |
| 28 | 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:37,260 | high, that's the city. What makes this difficult is we're inside of this range. And we're inside of a larger range on the daily chart. So we're in the last |
| 29 | 00:06:37,290 --> 00:06:53,130 | several days of trading range. So it makes it very difficult to predict, to settling on one side of the marketplace. So originally, I was gonna open up the |
| 30 | 00:06:53,190 --> 00:07:06,360 | live stream at quarter after nine. And I said, Well, I'm reading the market, and I'm not really sure, at the moment, pre 930 opening, what it's likely going to |
| 31 | 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:19,920 | run for. Everything's mixed. NASDAQ really took a hammering so far this morning. s&p has been relatively strong. But Dow has been the leader on the upside. So |
| 32 | 00:07:20,340 --> 00:07:30,360 | it's a mixed bag. And while I'm expecting weakness in the dollar, that means obviously risk on for forex. I like the idea of British Pound trying to reach up |
| 33 | 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:46,710 | into 124 45, maybe 44. Ish. And then that's not a lot. But that's I'm looking at here on the five minute chart. Euro dollar, I think it wants to visit 109 30. In |
| 34 | 00:07:46,710 --> 00:07:58,560 | dollar, I think it wants to take out it's 6am. Lowe's. Yes, is where I'm focusing. So I have to take all this information, and kind of like, build an |
| 35 | 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:09,660 | idea around all that. So it's a little too early, in my opinion. But I want to focus on the 10 o'clock to 11 o'clock setup. So for your notes, there's they're |
| 36 | 00:08:09,660 --> 00:08:20,130 | here to try to build some understanding here. When in doubt, like say, I go into the marketplace early on, and I've been watching the market since about 530. |
| 37 | 00:08:20,130 --> 00:08:29,700 | This morning. I don't really have a feeling for what it wants to do, obviously looking at the chart. And one could say, well, we look at these lows here. And |
| 38 | 00:08:29,700 --> 00:08:40,620 | why wouldn't you want to take those out? They can. I just don't see them happening. You're having to do that right now. It would be more likely tomorrow |
| 39 | 00:08:40,650 --> 00:08:52,290 | to do that. If it's going to go down at all. I don't I don't subscribe to the idea that we're going lower at the moment, I would rather lean on the |
| 40 | 00:08:52,290 --> 00:09:00,840 | expectation that what has been put in motion on the weekly chart is likely to continue. That mean, the levels I was looking for that are still a little bit |
| 41 | 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:12,270 | higher than where we are now. And one of the ideas also that leans heavily on my analysis is we've had a movement here. And we're consolidating. Usually not |
| 42 | 00:09:12,270 --> 00:09:23,760 | always. Usually, when there's a consolidation after a price run like this, it generally will at least a very minimum, take out the old high if even if I'm |
| 43 | 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:32,250 | wrong about the continuation likely to go higher and longer term. This high still can be taken out which creates what a scenario for a breaker to form. |
| 44 | 00:09:32,460 --> 00:09:40,620 | Either way, if it continues higher or if it runs this high to create a reversal pattern. It matters not to me because there's more likelihood it's not a |
| 45 | 00:09:40,620 --> 00:09:49,560 | guarantee. Obviously nothing's guaranteed, but I'm siding with that initially after being away from the market for 10 days. I'm trying to go into it slowly |
| 46 | 00:09:50,190 --> 00:09:58,650 | and not try to springboard right back in there may be a Mr. Note off like saying, I'm sure I'll be back at saddle come Friday, but right now I'm a little |
| 47 | 00:09:58,650 --> 00:10:09,270 | rusty and I don't know, the rhythm of the market right now. So I'm looking for things that kind of build my confidence. Because I can see a lot of things, both |
| 48 | 00:10:09,270 --> 00:10:17,700 | sides right now, I can argue both sides of the market. And I teach my students and if you're a student that's been with me for a while you understand that the |
| 49 | 00:10:17,700 --> 00:10:26,940 | way I define high probability is where there's no way to use what I teach, to frame the other side of the trade. And if you can't do that, then yes, high |
| 50 | 00:10:26,940 --> 00:10:35,820 | probability. If there's a 5050 likelihood that you can explain the market to likely go higher or lower, right, when you're trying to push the button. And |
| 51 | 00:10:35,820 --> 00:10:51,180 | this is probably gonna save a lot of you a lot of money, a lot of heartache, if you simply just go into every trade with the expectation of can I see those are |
| 52 | 00:10:51,180 --> 00:11:01,470 | the trade panning out, if you can, you probably are not in a high probability trade. So the whole premise of me being here with you and in teaching is for you |
| 53 | 00:11:01,470 --> 00:11:15,060 | to identify those conditions in ferreting out, you know, filtering, if you will, the opportunities that are not so ideal. It's, it's a hard thing to understand |
| 54 | 00:11:15,060 --> 00:11:23,550 | for new traders, because they think that because there's a lot of time, because the markets are trading 24 hours most of the time, except for the ones that were |
| 55 | 00:11:23,550 --> 00:11:32,010 | breaking between five o'clock and six o'clock for indices. So therefore, you should always be able to find a trade, you should always be able to find a tree. |
| 56 | 00:11:32,100 --> 00:11:40,410 | And that's not good advice. There's always something you get yourself into just like the highways, I mean, you can always run yourself in front of a moving car, |
| 57 | 00:11:40,860 --> 00:11:46,710 | you can always stand in front of a falling tree, you know, those types of things, there's opportunities exist, that doesn't mean it's something that's |
| 58 | 00:11:46,740 --> 00:11:56,910 | favorable for you, or the outcome that would be favorable. So I try to do my best. And I'm trying to do that, obviously, this year before we close our shop |
| 59 | 00:11:56,910 --> 00:12:06,480 | up in November. By presenting you the things that I lean on in terms of experience, the things I look for, to help prevent me from going into the |
| 60 | 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:21,000 | marketplace when I shouldn't. And hopefully my students can glean that insight by seeing multiple examples and find their model. So with all that, preamble, |
| 61 | 00:12:21,990 --> 00:12:30,930 | let's take a look at the four hour chart here. We did not take out the low yesterday. And admittedly, I was working with my older students. And I wanted to |
| 62 | 00:12:30,930 --> 00:12:38,940 | see that I really wanted to see it happen, because I wanted to see it go down, clean that up, and then work towards going higher, because I would feel very |
| 63 | 00:12:38,940 --> 00:12:46,950 | confident I would have been very confident this morning, I probably would have been up in London trading it long. That's how I would have handled today. But it |
| 64 | 00:12:46,950 --> 00:12:56,640 | didn't do it yesterday. So in the afternoon, you know outlined a couple things that presented a bullish run. And with the exception of that, really yesterday |
| 65 | 00:12:56,640 --> 00:13:10,620 | was me just trying to find my footing in what price action has been doing, since my break away from being with all of you in the charts. So I liked it down close |
| 66 | 00:13:10,620 --> 00:13:20,940 | candle here. I liked the fact that we traded. Let's see what the low was here on this 4132 and a quarter, three quarters. So 32 and three quarters in the high |
| 67 | 00:13:20,940 --> 00:13:29,220 | comes in at 34. So we didn't quite get to that yet, about a little bit shorter that that will check my math here. |
| 68 | 00:13:33,030 --> 00:13:35,280 | We actually went into the high. |
| 69 | 00:13:37,289 --> 00:13:44,009 | So I'm watching that in this imbalance in here. This imbalance, you'll see when I go into a lower timeframe, but let me zoom in here and make it a little bit |
| 70 | 00:13:44,009 --> 00:13:54,689 | bigger for you. And again, I'm waiting between the 10 o'clock and live o'clock hour, we're seconds away from 10 o'clock starting. So this imbalance from this |
| 71 | 00:13:54,689 --> 00:14:03,989 | high in this candle is low. I don't need to annotate that because I've already had something that's more refined in the lower timeframe. So we'll we'll drop |
| 72 | 00:14:03,989 --> 00:14:16,619 | down into that now. But I want you to take notice of how we trade up into the order block here. Large up close candle, the shift lower. All this is a city, |
| 73 | 00:14:17,219 --> 00:14:27,299 | this down close candle. We had buyside here so we ran up, hit that and went lower. I'm looking at Dollar Index, it's consolidating, it hasn't really moved |
| 74 | 00:14:27,299 --> 00:14:41,159 | much. And NASDAQ like I said they went lower I'll cycle through when we get into the five minute chart through all the ES versus NASDAQ versus Dow but for now |
| 75 | 00:14:41,189 --> 00:14:50,459 | this imbalance here let's take a closer look on the hourly chart Okay, so you can start to see some of the new weak opening gaps that's it these heavier, |
| 76 | 00:14:50,969 --> 00:15:06,959 | thick black lines are small little gap in here while I've been talking to you right going up into that. And apart from trading back to an old new weak opening |
| 77 | 00:15:06,959 --> 00:15:20,189 | gap, there's really no imbalances in all of this run here below what's being shown here, and this is a 15 Minute and five minute chart. imbalance sold |
| 78 | 00:15:20,189 --> 00:15:35,399 | traveling to 15. Now in that shaded area here, that gray area, that is what would be referred to as the current new week opening gap. And we had a shortened |
| 79 | 00:15:37,019 --> 00:15:47,039 | trading hour schedule last Friday. So I don't call it Good Friday, because I don't believe it was a Friday crucifix and by the way, but the the holiday |
| 80 | 00:15:47,129 --> 00:15:56,729 | schedule caused them to shorten trading hours. So it kind of messes up the new week opening gap for me, but I'm adding it here because I know some of you |
| 81 | 00:15:56,729 --> 00:16:07,109 | probably have that on your chart as well. I'm not referring to that one. I'm using this one here 41 40.50 and 4137. Even the reason why I'm doing that is |
| 82 | 00:16:07,109 --> 00:16:17,189 | because it's in close proximity to what the actual new week opening gap is, for this week, so where we closed last Friday and shortened holiday hours to where |
| 83 | 00:16:17,189 --> 00:16:27,089 | we opened on Sunday. That is the little gray box area that's there just this show. I'm observing it. That way, you can see that it should be on your chart, |
| 84 | 00:16:27,209 --> 00:16:35,669 | as you would understand you This is where we closed on Friday. And this is where we open on Sunday. I personally do not use that if we have a holiday schedule |
| 85 | 00:16:35,999 --> 00:16:46,829 | that impacts Friday. So I'll look for the closest new week opening gap in the last 60 days in that range. If I don't have it, then I don't use it. What I |
| 86 | 00:16:46,829 --> 00:17:01,529 | don't I don't use it. So the reason why I don't trust the data, because it's not. It's not. It's not based on actual market normal times. So when the market |
| 87 | 00:17:01,529 --> 00:17:10,559 | would typically close on a Friday, that's not being factored in here, even though yes, the market didn't close. On Friday, at the time that it did, I just |
| 88 | 00:17:10,589 --> 00:17:20,429 | elect not to do that. Because it makes me rely on an other frame of reference that I would trust regardless of whether there was a holiday or not. So even if |
| 89 | 00:17:20,429 --> 00:17:28,529 | there was no holiday that impacted Friday's trading, and we shortened the hours. If that didn't happen, and say it was a normal Friday, I would still have that |
| 90 | 00:17:28,529 --> 00:17:39,029 | 4140 and a half and 4137 on my chart anyway. So it kind of removes the uncertainty that I have, unfortunately, adopted over the years where there has |
| 91 | 00:17:39,029 --> 00:17:49,289 | been impact on this particular holiday. So therefore I just filtered out kind of like how you know, I'll use the Asian range from a Friday. The week prior, I'll |
| 92 | 00:17:49,289 --> 00:17:59,069 | use that Asian range on Mondays trading, which makes no sense to anyone else understands there's an Asian range or whatever, ask anybody about Asian range, |
| 93 | 00:17:59,729 --> 00:18:06,269 | and how that might be useful. And they'll look at you and say that's nonsense. But that's somebody that hasn't really spent any time working with the |
| 94 | 00:18:06,269 --> 00:18:19,679 | information. So I don't trust the Sunday session like for for those either in forex, I don't look at the Asian range on Sundays. For Monday's trading, I use |
| 95 | 00:18:19,679 --> 00:18:31,379 | Fridays. And that might not be helpful to you, you may not make any decisions based on an insight, but that's what I do. That's how I look at it. And because |
| 96 | 00:18:31,379 --> 00:18:41,369 | the markets gonna refer back to an actual full trading day, versus where we just opened up, I have other tools that I would utilize for Sunday. I don't trade |
| 97 | 00:18:41,369 --> 00:18:50,819 | them anymore. But when I was trading Sundays, I would just use what you've been learning here it was his new week opening gap. But that's different for forex, |
| 98 | 00:18:50,819 --> 00:19:04,379 | because indices open with the opening session or New York at 930. So that's an impactful time. So anyway, let's get through this. On the 50 minute time frame, |
| 99 | 00:19:04,409 --> 00:19:13,169 | that's that imbalance right here. It goes down here at Yes, but we'll see in the five minute chart, it's refined. So again, that's what I'm referring to back |
| 100 | 00:19:13,319 --> 00:19:22,649 | when we were looking at the higher timeframe for our than hourly. None of the fair value gets lined up with the actual high and low. The reason why is I see |
| 101 | 00:19:22,649 --> 00:19:29,849 | it as you'll see it. But this is how I keep my chart from having 1000 different things all over it because I want to keep it clean. |
| 102 | 00:19:32,460 --> 00:19:33,960 | So we'll drop into a five minute chart |
| 103 | 00:19:40,290 --> 00:19:48,660 | and you can see now how nice and clean that is. See we have this candles low, this candles high and that little imbalance here. That's the refined one from |
| 104 | 00:19:48,660 --> 00:19:58,590 | all four hour, the 60 minute chart, the 15 minute chart, unrefined right down into the five minute chart, which is fine. I don't have to worry about having |
| 105 | 00:19:58,590 --> 00:20:09,330 | the actual highest time and low as low for that larger range, because I want to take myself into the core of what it's going to really reach for to imbalance or |
| 106 | 00:20:09,330 --> 00:20:24,630 | not imbalance to rebalance to. Right, so we've had a little bit of a city in here, it came back up into that traded there at the open at 930, broke lower old |
| 107 | 00:20:24,690 --> 00:20:35,340 | new week opening gap, again, that's that 4140 and a half, hit that as resistance. Notice, it's not respecting the actual new we're gonna get for this |
| 108 | 00:20:35,340 --> 00:20:48,510 | week, we traded outside of it. So again, that's the reason why I'm telling you, I don't care for it. If it's a holiday that's impacting Friday, or Sunday, let's |
| 109 | 00:20:48,510 --> 00:20:58,230 | say there's a Sunday Monday influence some something causes the market to not be a full trading session, I'm going to go to the Tuesday, and I'll use that as my |
| 110 | 00:20:58,230 --> 00:21:11,520 | opening. So in your, here's what's the opening, I'll use the opening at midnight, for forex, or I'll use the opening price at the opening about 930 in |
| 111 | 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:19,920 | the morning session. So there's a lot of rules, and I'll have all that new throughout this year, providing more of it for you. But it's better for me to |
| 112 | 00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:29,520 | teach it to you in context, when I'm using it. And you'll see and you'll hear at the time, like I don't do these things every single week. If it's an impact, |
| 113 | 00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:38,220 | that's a holiday how many times we have a Holic there isn't that many. But you have to have a protocol to work within two that kind of like filter out why |
| 114 | 00:21:38,220 --> 00:21:45,120 | you're going to use a specific tool, or when you're not going to use a specific tool. And while I have a lot of tools, and a lot of things that make it sound |
| 115 | 00:21:45,150 --> 00:21:57,300 | and seem extremely complicated, it's not complicated when you understand the rules and when I reach for certain things. So at any rate, I told you I'd go |
| 116 | 00:21:57,300 --> 00:22:10,980 | through the other indices. Once I got down to the five minute chart. Let's go and take a look quick look at NASDAQ. You see the difference in that delivery? |
| 117 | 00:22:12,750 --> 00:22:15,510 | much weaker. So across the board, |
| 118 | 00:22:16,950 --> 00:22:27,870 | NASDAQ is the weaker here is the Dow you'll see a stark contrast and that relatively speaking, this is the stronger, but it's only three it's 330 stocks |
| 119 | 00:22:27,870 --> 00:22:45,330 | versus 100 stocks in NASDAQ and then go back to ES. Okay, so if you look right in here, that volume imbalance, yes, we had this, this run up here to new week |
| 120 | 00:22:45,330 --> 00:22:53,490 | opening gap, not the present new week opening up but an old new week opening gap, hit that as resistance. And then where did the body stop? Below the fair, |
| 121 | 00:22:53,490 --> 00:23:02,430 | I'm sorry, I'm going to balance this candle here we opened we rallied up again. So we crossed over this volume and balance to other times. But there's no body |
| 122 | 00:23:02,430 --> 00:23:11,040 | laid across this. So as long as there's no body laid across it, this will always act like a magnet. Okay, so secret for you from my volume and balance concept. |
| 123 | 00:23:11,580 --> 00:23:14,640 | So I'm watching that there, we go up here to lay down a body |
| 124 | 00:23:15,930 --> 00:23:19,020 | across this range, and then show you what I mean by that. |
| 125 | 00:23:27,690 --> 00:23:44,850 | If you look at this area here for me to be satisfied with this volume imbalance, I want to see it lay the the body of a candle across it and close it now I don't |
| 126 | 00:23:44,850 --> 00:23:52,680 | care where it closes. But it needs to lay a body completely overtop of the high and the low that makes that volume imbalance. See how we whipped right up into |
| 127 | 00:23:52,680 --> 00:24:03,270 | here and the reaction off of that. It's sensitive to it. But I want to see it lay a body across that range, that little orange shaded area. Once it does that, |
| 128 | 00:24:03,270 --> 00:24:10,110 | and then it leaves it, then I'm satisfied. And I'm probably not going to refer back to that volume balance anymore. But as long as they don't drop a body |
| 129 | 00:24:10,110 --> 00:24:21,870 | across that range, you will always find a way to like go back and test it again, multiple times. So that's why I teach that out of all my PD arrays in that are |
| 130 | 00:24:23,250 --> 00:24:33,150 | influential to me my analysis. The volume imbalance is the most flexible one. It's frustrating for a new student to learn that because they don't know what to |
| 131 | 00:24:33,150 --> 00:24:43,140 | do with it. It's a point where I expect price to come back to me you can come back to it multiple times when I'm done with it is when it lays a body across it |
| 132 | 00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:52,800 | and then we move away from it then I will no longer keep it on my chart. But as long as it stays open and there hasn't been no body laid across it. It doesn't |
| 133 | 00:24:52,800 --> 00:25:02,190 | need to have both directions. Okay, it's not it's not like a rebalancing necessity there. It just wants it lays a body across Step in create another |
| 134 | 00:25:02,190 --> 00:25:12,120 | can't like see it has yet to lay a body overtop of it. It keeps working through it, but I want to see it trade and drop a candle body across and where it closes |
| 135 | 00:25:13,170 --> 00:25:24,810 | in relationship to that little orange shaded area. It's not important to me. But you're here to learn. So I'm giving the details as to what I do with that. And |
| 136 | 00:25:24,810 --> 00:25:33,600 | that's new insight. You've my charter members don't even know that. And I keep getting emails, you can't join that. Okay, that's all done. We're doing |
| 137 | 00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,360 | mentorship here on YouTube and on Twitter. |
| 138 | 00:25:48,210 --> 00:26:07,590 | So if I were a betting man, that sell side looks really really juicy. Not that I think it's going to be a crashing down day. But it looks as if we want to maybe |
| 139 | 00:26:07,590 --> 00:26:18,840 | clean this up a little bit. What changes that we would have to get above didn't make opening gap high here at 4140 in half. So as long as we remain below that, |
| 140 | 00:26:19,260 --> 00:26:31,170 | I would expect price to gravitate towards that 4132 and a half 4132 and three quarters level let's cycle through down to |
| 141 | 00:26:32,430 --> 00:26:36,810 | through the levels here is three minute sharp |
| 142 | 00:26:48,270 --> 00:26:51,480 | Okay, potential fair value gap here. |
| 143 | 00:26:52,830 --> 00:27:03,810 | Swing Low. We just traded through it now does it want to come back up in here to this? And then does it react there to run this low over here at 4132 and three |
| 144 | 00:27:03,810 --> 00:27:04,290 | quarters |
| 145 | 00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:22,830 | it's been in this area down here this five minute Pharaoh you got into this little teal colored rectangle is that we've been here several times now. So |
| 146 | 00:27:22,830 --> 00:27:32,460 | anyone that was long from here, they have liquidity resting below that say we want to see a chart gravitate down below that. And you can see it's not it's not |
| 147 | 00:27:32,460 --> 00:27:45,810 | even five handles worth of movement. So it's nothing to be all that excited about what is observing that ICT can I make two handles if you want to I'm not |
| 148 | 00:27:45,810 --> 00:27:46,620 | trying to do that |
| 149 | 00:27:58,380 --> 00:28:00,330 | now some of you are looking at this right here |
| 150 | 00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:03,660 | is a spooky, right? How do you know |
| 151 | 00:28:05,340 --> 00:28:15,450 | volume imbalance here can be still seen on the one minute chart and witness count as laying over top of that, and you would be done. No, because I was |
| 152 | 00:28:15,450 --> 00:28:24,060 | observing and using the higher timeframe. So I want that higher timeframe to lay down a body over the lower timeframes are always going to be a lot of movement |
| 153 | 00:28:24,060 --> 00:28:34,590 | back and forth, back and forth. That's not what I'm referring to. So wherever I see the volume imbalance form, whatever highest timeframe I see it in, that's |
| 154 | 00:28:34,590 --> 00:28:46,620 | the one I'm referring to, like that's the parent in anything below that would be subordinate. But like an unruly child, you know, this is the volume and balance |
| 155 | 00:28:46,620 --> 00:28:54,780 | but look even one minute chart, it can stray outside the boundaries, but ultimately it's still respects the the order of the parent from the higher |
| 156 | 00:28:54,780 --> 00:29:06,720 | timeframe. The bodies don't even respect the root they the respect in this regard, but they don't lay over top of it. So all of my PD arrays has specific |
| 157 | 00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:17,550 | characteristics. And if you don't know what they are, you can't teach them which is again why I get upset when people are out here trying to do it and it's nerve |
| 158 | 00:29:17,550 --> 00:29:30,450 | racking Alright, so we did trade back up to the low the old new week opening gap inside the fairway you got an Otterbox so it should have no difficulty to |
| 159 | 00:29:30,450 --> 00:29:32,340 | getting into the sell side now. |
| 160 | 00:30:04,619 --> 00:30:20,309 | Looking at the dollar index, on a five minute chart, we are trading inside of a fair value gap on the 10 o'clock. Candle. That is a Sydney Southside announced |
| 161 | 00:30:20,309 --> 00:30:33,989 | price and efficiency. That's a little concerning for me because I want to see it. Ultimately, I want to see, dollar go lower in ES go higher. But right now |
| 162 | 00:30:33,989 --> 00:30:42,419 | I'm looking at that sell side of COVID. I'd like to see it swept rejected, and then try to move higher. That's what I would. That's what I would rather see |
| 163 | 00:30:42,419 --> 00:30:51,239 | here. So that's not like we're looking for a short because I told you it's not anymore taken because not enough a range. Let me let me talk a bit about that |
| 164 | 00:30:51,239 --> 00:30:57,629 | too, because some of you are probably thinking, what makes it a good range, because maybe this is the first time you've watched the livestream by me. I |
| 165 | 00:30:57,629 --> 00:31:07,799 | teach that a very low hanging fruit very easy objective to strive for as a new student learning what I'm teaching you is to aim for five handles and not, |
| 166 | 00:31:08,339 --> 00:31:15,809 | that's not to say that you would stop at five handles, and that's going to be the most you can never do. But for someone that's never done this consistently, |
| 167 | 00:31:16,469 --> 00:31:24,809 | and is looking for a way to be in here looking for patterns that repeat things that build a model that repeat, looking for characteristics and price delivery |
| 168 | 00:31:24,809 --> 00:31:35,369 | that repeat. The very small threshold objective of five handles is something I believe, and I think when my students go through the process of the things I'm |
| 169 | 00:31:35,369 --> 00:31:46,319 | putting you through as teaching that five handles, once you start getting good at finding it, it builds a lot of confidence. And you'll be able to navigate |
| 170 | 00:31:46,319 --> 00:31:56,069 | that fear and anxiety about missing things you won't be, you won't be afraid of missing moves, because there's a lot of opportunities for five handles to appear |
| 171 | 00:31:56,519 --> 00:32:06,239 | over the course of you know, a full trading day. And you can trade sometimes, even outside the opportune times that I teach. So that being like, the kill |
| 172 | 00:32:06,239 --> 00:32:12,629 | zones that I teach, that are good for the morning session in the afternoon session, you can if you know what you're doing, you can trade the lunch hour. |
| 173 | 00:32:13,229 --> 00:32:20,429 | But you have to understand the rules that go along with that. Because if you don't understand that, you can get yourself involved trouble, you can marry the |
| 174 | 00:32:20,429 --> 00:32:29,039 | idea that you think you're seeing a specific price run, when in fact, the only thing that is really occurring isn't lunchtime, run against the stops. And those |
| 175 | 00:32:29,039 --> 00:32:39,179 | individuals have been profitable for the morning session. And they knock them out. And generally sometimes the market will continue. Okay, so let me take your |
| 176 | 00:32:39,179 --> 00:32:48,929 | attention back up into the fair value gap I was talking about. And again, please don't read into this, like I'm not, we're not saying Look how smart we are, or |
| 177 | 00:32:48,929 --> 00:33:00,149 | I'm not saying anything like that. What is observing in a small range day? How there are fluctuations that we can see, and we can forecast them. But is there |
| 178 | 00:33:00,149 --> 00:33:12,449 | really a trade there that's viable. And what constitutes a reason for me to get into a trade? It has, in my opinion, it has to offer 10 handles. If the |
| 179 | 00:33:12,449 --> 00:33:22,019 | framework for the trade offers 10 handles, then you as a student, because the reason why I'm teaching you that is it will give you a little bit of wiggle |
| 180 | 00:33:22,019 --> 00:33:33,449 | room. Okay, a little bit of cushion for you to not get the best entry and not get the best exit. So it allows it's very forgiving. So as a mentor, I'm trying |
| 181 | 00:33:33,449 --> 00:33:45,359 | to teach you how to read where the probabilities are, the time when these patterns form, and how you can align yourself with algorithmic price delivery. |
| 182 | 00:33:46,469 --> 00:33:55,169 | But if you can't frame the trade and see it moving potentially 10 handles and you don't know what you're doing. Because you're new, chances are it's better |
| 183 | 00:33:55,169 --> 00:34:03,119 | for you just observe it's only impressive new entry on your demo account. Don't do that. Just observe it and probably be thankful that you didn't do it. The |
| 184 | 00:34:03,119 --> 00:34:16,769 | idea is you want to be able to capture that five handle run. So because you're new and for the folks that know what they're doing, obviously you don't need the |
| 185 | 00:34:16,769 --> 00:34:30,479 | 10 handle filter. You can just landscapers across streets are the you want to be able to find your five handles wherever you can find them once you know what |
| 186 | 00:34:30,479 --> 00:34:37,829 | you're doing, and you can be a little bit more nimble. In the beginning it's unrealistic for any new student, whether it be mine or someone else's learning |
| 187 | 00:34:37,829 --> 00:34:45,389 | whatever they do and teach. It's not realistic for you to think that you're going to be all that nimble get in mera high and go short and get out at the |
| 188 | 00:34:45,389 --> 00:34:53,579 | low. Look at that. That's unrealistic. I don't teach that and I'm mentoring and my students know that. But unfortunately students many times come to me and they |
| 189 | 00:34:53,579 --> 00:35:03,569 | have these unrealistic expectations of themselves. And they want to see themselves do olympic size feet It's trade exceptionally well, no losses, if |
| 190 | 00:35:03,569 --> 00:35:14,309 | next to none, and have very, very ultra short, small stop losses, and big are multiples, like that's the flavor in the last couple of years is everybody's |
| 191 | 00:35:14,309 --> 00:35:22,709 | trying to market this idea of having really, really small stop losses, and big wins. And to me, I don't think that's something that a new trader should strive |
| 192 | 00:35:22,709 --> 00:35:31,079 | for. Because number one, it's impractical, you're not going to be able to do that. And to get to that level being consistent. It takes a long time. And many |
| 193 | 00:35:31,079 --> 00:35:42,509 | of you don't have the patience to even do this certain drills and things that I teach that are simple. If you can't exercise discipline and self control there, |
| 194 | 00:35:42,779 --> 00:35:50,669 | how could you reasonably expect as a new student or new trader to trade with a very small stop loss and have these high multiples, because you don't know how |
| 195 | 00:35:50,669 --> 00:35:58,019 | to hold on to a winning trade, it's hard to hold on to even when you're new, because you see the profit, because that's what's going to be watching instead |
| 196 | 00:35:58,019 --> 00:36:07,679 | of price. You'll be watching that number fluctuate up and down and regretting the and close a trade when it was up 1000. Down, it's only up 850. And it drops |
| 197 | 00:36:07,679 --> 00:36:17,099 | to 750. And then the only $700. And then you close the trade, because you think that's reversed on you. And then it runs to 2800 or whatever it is, you're going |
| 198 | 00:36:17,099 --> 00:36:24,629 | to not have roles, you're not going to have any experience. So that's the reason why I teach to start with five handles Not that that's going to be the end of |
| 199 | 00:36:24,629 --> 00:36:37,379 | your career in terms of the the height, that's not the zenith. That's not the apex point of your proficiency. It just means that I'm giving you what I believe |
| 200 | 00:36:37,379 --> 00:36:46,979 | my opinion. And most of my students would agree that that's a good baseline to start with. I don't think 10 handles is for ES because it takes a little bit |
| 201 | 00:36:46,979 --> 00:36:56,129 | more filtering out to find that for 10 handles, but I think that you should try to look for a price move that offers that 10 handles in the beginning, because |
| 202 | 00:36:56,129 --> 00:37:16,199 | it's allowing you a lot of forgiveness in entering little too early, little too late, and getting out maybe at the most well, unlikely location. So how would |
| 203 | 00:37:16,199 --> 00:37:23,249 | that look for that as well, if we were looking at this fair value gap here, okay, using this candles Hi. And you're gonna look up here, by the way, upper |
| 204 | 00:37:23,249 --> 00:37:40,469 | left hand corner, that value right there. That price high comes in and 4136 and a quarter. Okay, so 36 and a quarters is rounded down. So 36 and a quarter, we |
| 205 | 00:37:40,469 --> 00:37:52,169 | need to get to 31 and a half. And I use that quarter point that would cover conditions. Maybe not with your broker, but that's how I look at it. So whenever |
| 206 | 00:37:52,169 --> 00:38:03,059 | I look for I'm looking for five, five and a quarter handles. So from here, if it trades that price level right here on this candle, you see where my cursor is |
| 207 | 00:38:03,419 --> 00:38:12,239 | going straight down to that one right there. Okay, that candle, so that trades into that price of the previous candles high, you're inside that fear Vega, so |
| 208 | 00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:20,819 | you're inside the city. So that's where I teach my students to try to aim for because you need to learn how to hold on to a trade while it's going a little |
| 209 | 00:38:20,819 --> 00:38:28,619 | bit against you and drawdown. That's not something you should be shying away from. It's not something you should be trying to avoid. Because you're going to |
| 210 | 00:38:28,619 --> 00:38:37,499 | have that happen. Your trades are not going to be from your entry running into profit doesn't work that way. Okay? Sometimes, maybe a lot of times when you |
| 211 | 00:38:37,499 --> 00:38:46,139 | first start doing this, you're going to feel that and it's going to cause you to have a lot of uncertainty and doubts and you need to grow through all that. It's |
| 212 | 00:38:46,139 --> 00:39:00,659 | very, very important to go through it and not try to hide it. Okay, not try to hide from it. But if we went short here at that 36 in a quarter, okay, getting |
| 213 | 00:39:00,659 --> 00:39:18,239 | down to this low over here, which is at 4132 and three quarters. That doesn't even offer five handles. So while that was there, and I did trade down to the |
| 214 | 00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:30,869 | low end of that five minute ferry I got and stopped dead in its tracks. Did it deliver a run into the sell side? No. So having a filter, looking for your |
| 215 | 00:39:30,869 --> 00:39:42,149 | setups to p&l in the context that it's likely to move 10 handles all I'm trying to do is get five of it. All I'm trying to do is get five so it allows |
| 216 | 00:39:42,179 --> 00:39:53,459 | forgiveness. But more importantly, this is what you need to understand. By having this filter it removes the likelihood of you doing a trade that's not |
| 217 | 00:39:53,459 --> 00:39:57,869 | likely to pan out if your targets don't even offer the |
| 218 | 00:39:59,730 --> 00:40:00,750 | money The opportunity |
| 219 | 00:40:02,399 --> 00:40:10,529 | to get the 10 handles not that you're going to get the full 10 handles. But if you can't offer the 10 in the framework of the trade, what I mean by that is, we |
| 220 | 00:40:10,529 --> 00:40:16,109 | seen the fair value gap, I drew your attention to it here, when it was formed, when we dropped down into this one minute chart, I said, Okay, maybe we'll see |
| 221 | 00:40:16,109 --> 00:40:27,359 | this fair value get it went up, colored outside the minds of it, hit the last up close candle, traded down to the low of the Fair Pay Gap, low on the financial |
| 222 | 00:40:27,749 --> 00:40:38,249 | did not trade to the sell side. So by having the 10 handle filter, if you would have taken this trade here, and didn't take anything below that low here as a |
| 223 | 00:40:38,249 --> 00:40:55,529 | partial is running against you now, either has stopped you out, or most likely will snap you up. So you have to have these protocols in place, not because you |
| 224 | 00:40:55,529 --> 00:41:05,249 | want to paint yourself into a small box where you can't do much. But you have to have rules. And that's what makes this business very difficult. Because a lot of |
| 225 | 00:41:05,249 --> 00:41:14,789 | people don't like to be told what to do. And a lot of people don't have discipline, they don't have self control. So that's why individuals that go into |
| 226 | 00:41:14,789 --> 00:41:25,229 | this industry, without those characteristics in themselves, they will lose. And they take that loss. And they'll attribute to something else outside of them. |
| 227 | 00:41:25,259 --> 00:41:34,229 | It's the method it's it's flawed. The logic doesn't work. It's fake, it's a scam, the scammer guide taught me something doesn't work. And it's this them |
| 228 | 00:41:34,229 --> 00:41:43,379 | kind of trying to cope with their inability to be disciplined, their inability to have self control. And the rules that I presented, my students are there to |
| 229 | 00:41:43,379 --> 00:41:52,949 | help you. They're there to provide framework. So that way you grow in your understanding about what price is going to do. You have a context to operate |
| 230 | 00:41:52,949 --> 00:42:06,569 | within, you're not trying to guess. It's, and I'm guilty of being very facetious, many times in the past, where I've done remarks, you where people |
| 231 | 00:42:06,569 --> 00:42:14,999 | have said, there isn't, there isn't a technical science to it, it's just trading, what it really is technical science, and the technical sciences. You |
| 232 | 00:42:14,999 --> 00:42:22,979 | know, the details, you the devils in the details, okay? And unless you know what it is you're doing, when you're supposed to do it, when you're not supposed to |
| 233 | 00:42:22,979 --> 00:42:32,129 | do it, you know, it's going to open up opportunities for you to try to do something because you're bored. Like right now. Some of you are antsy, like |
| 234 | 00:42:32,129 --> 00:42:42,929 | Dude, you're talking and talking and talking. And nothing's going on, you're not here to learn. That's, that's the that's the defining characteristic for someone |
| 235 | 00:42:42,929 --> 00:42:44,249 | like yourself that you think that way. |
| 236 | 00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:58,380 | And for folks that want to learn, you know, that they're taking this information in, because they know what they're hearing is good. This is providing them an |
| 237 | 00:42:58,380 --> 00:42:59,970 | opportunity to have more framework. |
| 238 | 00:43:13,410 --> 00:43:25,590 | So again, we revisited that fair bit, and sorry for the volume imbalance once more. Now we're at the low of what would be considered right now this week's new |
| 239 | 00:43:25,590 --> 00:43:32,190 | week opening gap low almost 1030. |
| 240 | 00:43:44,070 --> 00:43:57,840 | Here's by side here. That dollar fair value gap at 10 o'clock on a five minute chart hasn't provided much in terms of reason to go higher or lower. So it's |
| 241 | 00:43:57,840 --> 00:44:11,310 | just hanging around, everything's stagnant. Even Forex is sitting still. Let's take a quick peek over at the Dow. So my point in saying all this is there's |
| 242 | 00:44:11,310 --> 00:44:20,310 | fluctuations that you're gonna see in price action. And you might be able to forecast how it's moving from one reference point to another. That doesn't |
| 243 | 00:44:20,340 --> 00:44:28,500 | necessarily mean that that's something that you should be trading. And I get many times there's a lot of new students that come to me, and I've had them come |
| 244 | 00:44:28,500 --> 00:44:35,880 | in the way of a paid membership, Student Two, they come in and they think, hey, you know, why didn't you take that as a trade? Because it doesn't meet the |
| 245 | 00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:43,860 | criteria that I have. I have expectations that I'm looking for in a trade. I want to see how we trade above this high. Here. This is the Dow This is the one |
| 246 | 00:44:43,860 --> 00:44:55,680 | that's been relatively stronger versus the NASDAQ which we'll look at again real quick. A much weaker comparably |
| 247 | 00:44:57,840 --> 00:44:59,280 | and then back the es real quick |
| 248 | 00:45:01,949 --> 00:45:12,629 | So if you fall victim to having like this inability, and that's good for me real quick go back up to a five minute chart. So now we have that candle laid across |
| 249 | 00:45:12,629 --> 00:45:24,929 | it now. So now I'm done with the volume imbalance, I would not read and refer to it anymore because it's done laid down a candle overtop of it. So for those that |
| 250 | 00:45:24,929 --> 00:45:37,169 | have like 1000 things, on your charts, and you're trying to manage everything, I don't, obviously dress my charts up like this, I do it that way. It helps |
| 251 | 00:45:37,169 --> 00:45:46,499 | communicate to you as the viewer, what it is I'm looking at where it is framed with pie, and what low Am I using to make a reference point that identifies a |
| 252 | 00:45:46,499 --> 00:45:56,189 | specific PD right? Now, because we have that body laid across it, that completes and satisfies my interest in that, so I'm not interested anymore. On this volume |
| 253 | 00:45:56,189 --> 00:46:07,799 | of balance, it can be removed from my chart. So I'm not interested into it no longer. So now because we'll, we'll play devil's advocate for a moment. I don't |
| 254 | 00:46:07,799 --> 00:46:17,189 | like when there is a new week opening gap framed when there's a holiday as I mentioned in the beginning of this presentation. But if we can trade higher, and |
| 255 | 00:46:17,189 --> 00:46:28,619 | then this low where to find support. That's the same logic that I use with a new week opening that meaning that I would like to see, price stay above this low or |
| 256 | 00:46:28,619 --> 00:46:37,619 | that new week opening gap. So since we've traded where we're at now, I would like to see it doesn't mean I'm demanding it, I'm not trying to impose my will |
| 257 | 00:46:37,619 --> 00:46:49,349 | upon it, I would like to see it stay above that low and then create a imbalance in the form of a fair value gap that is a busy, B I S I buyside imbalance sells |
| 258 | 00:46:49,349 --> 00:47:03,239 | on an inefficiency. That is equivalent to something like this doesn't need to be that pronounced. But I would like to see that form in a run prior to this high |
| 259 | 00:47:03,239 --> 00:47:12,659 | forming. I'm sorry, prior to a run about this high. So we're somewhere between this high and where we are right now in this low. I'd like to see a fair value |
| 260 | 00:47:12,659 --> 00:47:21,959 | get formed, and then set the stage for maybe potentially running up into at the very minimum here. I like that. And in the challenge that buyside liquidity pool |
| 261 | 00:47:21,959 --> 00:47:27,749 | up at 4149. And should we trade above 4149. I like 4180 today. |
| 262 | 00:47:33,120 --> 00:47:45,060 | So it's kind of like it, in my opinion. It's my way of interpreting price, and showing you how I'm using all these reference points. When I'm reading price |
| 263 | 00:47:45,060 --> 00:47:53,490 | action. Now I did this yesterday with my students, I caught a lot of things in the morning session that were noteworthy to me and observing. And a lot of those |
| 264 | 00:47:53,490 --> 00:48:02,310 | things didn't have that much of a reaction and price action. And I know I have a couple of students in here that are very critical that they keep their mouth |
| 265 | 00:48:02,310 --> 00:48:08,940 | shut down, they will go on social media outside of there. And they'll say whatever you want to say no, and it's fine. If I'm doing something that's not |
| 266 | 00:48:08,940 --> 00:48:19,320 | accurate. Okay. And if I say that it was accurate, call me out on it. But if I say on accurate, and you say not show me where I wasn't. So that way everyone |
| 267 | 00:48:19,320 --> 00:48:27,480 | that's Reading Your Comments can see that's, in fact what it is. But yesterday I was warming up the price and told everybody what I was doing. I mean, they're |
| 268 | 00:48:27,480 --> 00:48:37,380 | familiar with it. There's a lot of things that I was looking forward to it would have been, in my opinion noteworthy to help get my focus in what price is doing |
| 269 | 00:48:37,410 --> 00:48:46,620 | at the moment. So that way, when I'm talking to you in these live streams, I'm a little bit more confident about what is I expect? And admittedly right now I |
| 270 | 00:48:46,620 --> 00:48:54,750 | don't I don't have a hard this is where it's going to go. You know, opinion, I don't have a hard line. definitive. This is what I think it's going to do |
| 271 | 00:48:54,780 --> 00:49:04,890 | because everything is mixed right now and mixed. What do I mean by that? What I showed you earlier with the Dow how it was relatively stronger, higher. And in |
| 272 | 00:49:04,890 --> 00:49:14,760 | the NASDAQ was exceedingly weak compared to that. And where we're at right here. In the ES. Everything is doing its own thing. Its marching to its own drum |
| 273 | 00:49:15,630 --> 00:49:26,580 | verses where I teach my students we were looking for a idea that can be easily expected to pan out across all three averages easily run higher for NASDAQ |
| 274 | 00:49:26,610 --> 00:49:38,850 | easily run higher for ES easily run higher in the Dow because they're all doing whatever they want to do and opposed to one another. It makes trading much more |
| 275 | 00:49:38,850 --> 00:49:42,240 | difficult because everything is decoupled. |
| 276 | 00:49:48,390 --> 00:49:49,620 | If you look at the |
| 277 | 00:49:51,030 --> 00:50:02,880 | the price run in here, everything that we round up into here, all of this run all that this is just a returned back up into this by Sanibel sign in |
| 278 | 00:50:02,880 --> 00:50:06,660 | efficiency. And this is again why I teach that we are not supplying demand, |
| 279 | 00:50:08,099 --> 00:50:09,809 | the supply and demand would never do this |
| 280 | 00:50:14,219 --> 00:50:29,249 | all of this by side imbalance, what is it short on? Sell side, we had sell side offer here one more time up here, then it left it. So what does that make this |
| 281 | 00:50:29,579 --> 00:50:39,839 | bison unbalanced Asana efficiency wants it traded here in left it went lower. Once it did that here that buys and balances on efficiency becomes a balanced |
| 282 | 00:50:39,899 --> 00:50:51,449 | price range. That means it's going to stop like a like a brick wall stand in the way of price action. It starts that in its tracks right there, make a little bit |
| 283 | 00:50:51,449 --> 00:51:01,349 | bolder as you can see. So we're cutting through all this stuff here, that same side and in the people at the Online Trading Academy. I'm assuming that's the |
| 284 | 00:51:01,349 --> 00:51:08,819 | name. If I said it wrong, I apologize. I'm not trying to be disrespectful either. But I get so many people try to say that what I'm teaching is simple |
| 285 | 00:51:08,819 --> 00:51:17,699 | supply and demand. It's not. But this is a balanced price range, you do not have that in any textbook out there. And Sam doesn't teach it. Nobody else has it |
| 286 | 00:51:17,699 --> 00:51:27,179 | outside of what I've taught that that logic, let's balance price range that's algorithmic. And you get this reaction here, which is nice to see that type of |
| 287 | 00:51:27,179 --> 00:51:40,409 | thing unfold. But what makes it hard. And there's a run on the sell side. And I don't see much in the way of the dollar, providing much directional bias one way |
| 288 | 00:51:40,409 --> 00:51:41,219 | or the other still. |
| 289 | 00:51:48,090 --> 00:51:50,700 | So I'm watching the CD we reject this in here. |
| 290 | 00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:55,020 | But anyway, that's balanced price range. |
| 291 | 00:52:00,420 --> 00:52:14,850 | So below this, this is see what we can reach for if it wants to continue. Nothing in here stands out. Except for this little unbalanced there, we only |
| 292 | 00:52:14,850 --> 00:52:18,510 | have one run into that. So if it does accelerate to the downside. |
| 293 | 00:52:30,810 --> 00:52:35,430 | That'll be something I could reach into 4127. I don't think it will likely do that, to be honest with you. |
| 294 | 00:52:37,020 --> 00:52:40,800 | But how about your chart of the pm sessions should things change? |
| 295 | 00:52:44,130 --> 00:52:47,340 | Post a new New York local time. |
| 296 | 00:52:49,740 --> 00:52:59,070 | So I like to present this to my students. And when we're studying live, I always bring this up a lot. If you look at price action the way it is right here right |
| 297 | 00:52:59,070 --> 00:53:08,850 | now. Do you in your present understanding the way you see price, or what you think you understand about price action? Do you see anything in this, that you |
| 298 | 00:53:08,850 --> 00:53:22,800 | would qualify? Even with the benefit of hindsight, do you see something in here that would feel is high probability and you should have taken a trade on that? I |
| 299 | 00:53:22,800 --> 00:53:38,460 | don't. But many times when you're new, you feel like because price has moved, you feel like you should have been in and that creates that regret that |
| 300 | 00:53:38,940 --> 00:53:48,450 | materializes in fear of missing out the next one. When this is nothing, this is an insignificant price move. Nothing here was high probability nothing in here |
| 301 | 00:53:49,020 --> 00:53:58,890 | warrants a reason for you to regret not having done something. In fact, probably some of you have regretted pushing a button today, if you're being honest. It's |
| 302 | 00:53:59,100 --> 00:54:08,280 | it's completely avoidable. Knowing what you're looking for, when the markets boats new both sides of the marketplace are presenting opportunities, but |
| 303 | 00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:18,330 | neither of them being high probability. That is the definition of low probability. And if you can frame both sides, by or along, I'm sorry, long or |
| 304 | 00:54:18,330 --> 00:54:30,360 | short. You're really trying to you trade in a condition that is the definition of 5050. And you don't want to do that. And many times and I've watched live |
| 305 | 00:54:30,360 --> 00:54:40,470 | streamers, have watched people share the results and go against the good advice of me trying to point you away from certain times. Don't Don't worry about it |
| 306 | 00:54:40,470 --> 00:54:52,020 | right now. Let's avoid this. And they go in there and they plunk their money down or they push their fund that account and either lose it or go into major |
| 307 | 00:54:52,020 --> 00:55:07,710 | drawdown and that's avoidable now you history. As a young man, I did those things. And I knew every single time before I push the button, I shouldn't do |
| 308 | 00:55:07,710 --> 00:55:18,750 | it. But I wanted to see what happens. I found out, it's not fun. And it's always regret. So that was the reason why I spent most of my career trying to find |
| 309 | 00:55:18,750 --> 00:55:28,980 | opportunities where I blew accounts where I blew large portions of money when the major drawdown, and then it created the very conditions that everyone falls |
| 310 | 00:55:28,980 --> 00:55:41,310 | victim to the fear, the the doubts whether you're going to be able to do it or not. And that becomes like a fog. And you start worrying about those things |
| 311 | 00:55:41,310 --> 00:55:49,290 | versus what are you supposed to be looking for in the chart, because the, the silver bullet trade has yet to form. Not on this pair, I mean, I'm not on this |
| 312 | 00:55:49,290 --> 00:55:58,710 | particular market, it didn't form on this one. And we got 90 minutes, the less than 90 minutes still, but between 10 o'clock and nine o'clock, I teach that |
| 313 | 00:55:58,740 --> 00:56:08,400 | there is usually a fair value get into forms that sets up a run into a pool of liquidity, right now liquidity is been extended to here. So now we have this |
| 314 | 00:56:17,190 --> 00:56:27,030 | that's it, why not this one here, because this was a reactionary high. So we had an energetic price run from there to there. And liquidity is here. So I'm |
| 315 | 00:56:27,030 --> 00:56:37,710 | thinking that it went down here. So anyone that did not take profits below that low and is still short, if they had a stop up here, they wrote it to here |
| 316 | 00:56:38,400 --> 00:56:48,300 | earlier and in now the here and that's the reason why I picked those two price points. sellside is here. Only if we run up above this high here, but I'm |
| 317 | 00:56:48,300 --> 00:57:00,180 | watching this do we take you know in press lower into that low there and dig into this imbalance it could happen but there's no silver bullet yet. Yes |
| 318 | 00:57:07,410 --> 00:57:09,480 | it's my ticket quick look at that real quick. |
| 319 | 00:57:35,730 --> 00:57:42,660 | The cycling through to timeframes. Little bit of more on that here. |
| 320 | 00:57:48,480 --> 00:57:50,190 | Since it's the weaker one, that's |
| 321 | 00:58:01,920 --> 00:58:09,450 | it mean, let me show that real quick again to somebody who's like to see what my settings are for my faith. Just take a screenshot of that from the video or |
| 322 | 00:58:09,450 --> 00:58:21,300 | while you're watching live and save it. What I've done here is I've used this as a fulcrum point, if we break lower because we are in this for a gap in the form |
| 323 | 00:58:21,300 --> 00:58:30,300 | of the city. We're still inside that living on tomorrow, I'm sorry, 10 to 11 o'clock, NASDAQ is the weaker so you can study this one here |
| 324 | 00:58:42,810 --> 00:58:52,890 | so run up in here, there's a small line here, it could spike up into that I'd like to see that stay open, rip below there. And then this being a fulcrum point |
| 325 | 00:58:52,890 --> 00:59:02,310 | imagine this like a door and this is the door hinge the doors edge is here. If it was a swing this way, you would reach down to that level here. So we're |
| 326 | 00:59:02,310 --> 00:59:08,700 | taking this range from low to high. If that lows broken the swing projection takes us down here that's what that negative one standard deviation is |
| 327 | 00:59:17,610 --> 00:59:19,950 | we'll come back to NASDAQ let's get back to ES |
| 328 | 00:59:34,380 --> 00:59:39,300 | my poor two minute chart up clean up that little area in here. So we have all this |
| 329 | 00:59:41,730 --> 00:59:43,440 | in white unbalanced written here |
| 330 | 00:59:49,980 --> 00:59:53,640 | below that you want to see a tree down in this area here |
| 331 | 00:59:59,010 --> 01:00:12,900 | what I'm doing I'd taken that level and annotating the new low is, in my mind, I'm thinking any shorts, it's in here. Every time we take out a new low, I'm |
| 332 | 01:00:12,900 --> 01:00:23,130 | sorry, we create a new low on the session. I expect as I teach my students to take profits, that's called running down equity. So every time we break to new |
| 333 | 01:00:23,130 --> 01:00:37,560 | lows, and you're in a short, that's p&l More over time, you want to train your eyes to consider every break below a new load it forms expect it to continue. If |
| 334 | 01:00:37,560 --> 01:00:46,680 | it keeps going below short term lows, but failing to make big explosive capitulation that runs into a target, you're probably gonna be watching a |
| 335 | 01:00:46,680 --> 01:00:52,530 | reversal that snaps up and has a little bit more retracement and you're probably willing to sit through, which is the reason why I teach running down equity. |
| 336 | 01:00:53,010 --> 01:01:02,280 | Once you have a shift below, where liquidity would be Mrs. Sell side, we will want to see expansion like we're seeing here, that's good, I'm gonna go back up |
| 337 | 01:01:02,280 --> 01:01:02,790 | to |
| 338 | 01:01:04,380 --> 01:01:05,340 | the NASDAQ. |
| 339 | 01:01:17,040 --> 01:01:44,670 | 113 1029 three quarters is the big deal. This is a mess. That is a mess. So now take a look at this. This is something also that you want to be aware of. We |
| 340 | 01:01:44,670 --> 01:01:54,960 | have a low here you see how we went below that and we had a run it took up to this point here didn't take out that high. If this drops, you want to see this |
| 341 | 01:01:54,960 --> 01:02:03,510 | low get completely smoked, not just trade a low, low and a little bit and then come back off of that you don't want to see that for price that already have a |
| 342 | 01:02:03,510 --> 01:02:15,390 | stop run like it does here. I don't teach and I don't think it's something to build a framework on where you have a low taken here. And then one more time |
| 343 | 01:02:15,390 --> 01:02:24,270 | take that low, because then we're talking about something like a wolf wave or something like that, or broadening. Like a megaphone pattern, which is, again, |
| 344 | 01:02:24,270 --> 01:02:37,170 | that's like retail stuff. I'm comfortable being wrong. You're not using that when it does form. But it's so infrequent, I could care less. So what I have |
| 345 | 01:02:37,170 --> 01:02:48,300 | done over the years is look for opportunities where I expect price to behave a specific way. We have already taken sell side with this low here, but that price |
| 346 | 01:02:48,300 --> 01:03:03,210 | run there. So if this does go lower, it should do so and not respect this low at all. Otherwise, we're creating a low, lower low, higher low and then want to |
| 347 | 01:03:03,210 --> 01:03:13,770 | retrace back up into here. We're all together completely run out the highs here because this is the relatively stronger of the three averages, the NASDAQ the ES |
| 348 | 01:03:13,800 --> 01:03:25,590 | and the Dow here. I don't trade the dow I don't ever mess with this one. Because it's it behaves like a like a Brett, you know an unruly child. It does what it |
| 349 | 01:03:25,590 --> 01:03:34,020 | wants to do many times and it just doesn't cleanly deliver price like I like the CES do and sometimes the NASDAQ doesn't perform like I'd like to see the either |
| 350 | 01:03:34,290 --> 01:03:37,680 | which is again why I teach predominantly through the Yes. |
| 351 | 01:03:39,030 --> 01:03:40,740 | So let's go back to es real quick. |
| 352 | 01:03:46,170 --> 01:03:55,380 | Right now say what I say I didn't say anything about the Dow Okay, forget anything that I mentioned for a second and look at what you're seeing in price. |
| 353 | 01:03:57,000 --> 01:04:08,910 | This would probably unexpected because you're looking at this. Maybe you frame a target like I had here. And all this retracement here it would make you very |
| 354 | 01:04:08,910 --> 01:04:19,860 | uncomfortable. You have to extend your ranges over to this is that fair ready got that we were looking at here to cause the support support now we're below |
| 355 | 01:04:19,860 --> 01:04:33,390 | it. So we don't want to see a trade above that. Fairway got high. Go back to the data real quick. What I was mentioning because we've already seen this low here |
| 356 | 01:04:33,390 --> 01:04:44,790 | taken the stops there and we had an energetic run this movement lower I said if we trade down to that low and go below it, it needs to be done in an animated |
| 357 | 01:04:44,820 --> 01:04:53,730 | manner where it's extremely large range down speed and distance. If you ever watched me doing the executions and I'm recording myself entering managing the |
| 358 | 01:04:53,730 --> 01:05:04,350 | trade. Sometimes you'll see me say in text and I'll type it out in annotations on the chart. I'm looking for for speed and distance, meaning that I want to see |
| 359 | 01:05:04,350 --> 01:05:15,210 | a specific level be railroaded through like this completely disrespected. 100% is run right through it like it wasn't even there. Whereas if this low, hadn't |
| 360 | 01:05:15,210 --> 01:05:25,380 | been traded to with this low, lower, I would expect it to do something like this always where it's a turtle suit type pattern where it's a false break below. And |
| 361 | 01:05:25,380 --> 01:05:38,460 | then a reaction like that, I would not expect this low, if it trades below it. To perform like this, I would expect it to give way immediately in allow a run |
| 362 | 01:05:38,460 --> 01:05:51,750 | into this area here. And if not altogether below here. Because we have already seen what a run on sell side, we've already had that. So if not, most likely go |
| 363 | 01:05:51,750 --> 01:06:00,240 | down below that low, just to make a lower low and then rip higher. I don't like the trade that way, I don't see price like that at all. So I internalize price |
| 364 | 01:06:00,240 --> 01:06:10,080 | being delivered. If it goes below this low, and it might not understand that it may not even get back down here. And that's problematic. Because we want all |
| 365 | 01:06:10,080 --> 01:06:20,520 | three averages, the Dow, the NASDAQ in the ES to agree that simple Dow Theory, that's market breadth away, we can expect the continuation of a specific price |
| 366 | 01:06:20,520 --> 01:06:31,170 | run higher or lower a continuation of risk on risk off. We want to see market environments that are very easy to see those signatures in price, where we're |
| 367 | 01:06:31,170 --> 01:06:40,800 | not getting that today, are we the Dow is doing what we're seeing here. But we've already had a run below a low right here. So we already had sellside taken |
| 368 | 01:06:40,800 --> 01:06:51,630 | him down. So there's really no need for this drop here to go below that low unless it's really wanting to go lower. Because we've already done the work of |
| 369 | 01:06:51,630 --> 01:07:02,580 | going down and stuff and traders out there. We're long. We've already done that here. So how do you use that information with the ES and the NASDAQ, that means |
| 370 | 01:07:02,820 --> 01:07:16,260 | that you're probably best suited taking profits in the event that your target or targets may not be filled, they may not be reached. So we're using the Insight |
| 371 | 01:07:16,290 --> 01:07:32,400 | gleaned from one of the indices, which is the Dow here. And that allows us to go back to let's go back to NASDAQ first. Okay, so we did trade below that low. It |
| 372 | 01:07:32,400 --> 01:07:43,260 | did offer an opportunity to take a partial, but it was there any continuation, not as of yet. And this is where the swing target would be. If we break this low |
| 373 | 01:07:43,260 --> 01:08:01,020 | here the fulcrum point, it could not that it has to. It could swing as much as that 13,029.75. Yes. failed to get get to our objective got real close to it. |
| 374 | 01:08:01,290 --> 01:08:11,460 | But look how many times it's done this. We have a low we've taken a low traded higher. This low was taken here. retraced normal, went below this low once more |
| 375 | 01:08:11,760 --> 01:08:25,980 | at this time. Okay, look at the time of the candle at 1046. Okay, 1046. Let's go back to the Dow. Let us only trade on one chart wrong. You don't get the proper, |
| 376 | 01:08:26,160 --> 01:08:36,600 | you have to weigh things out. If a low, a lower low, we've already had stock round down. So this drop down, we're watching to see does it have any |
| 377 | 01:08:36,600 --> 01:08:46,020 | willingness to get through this low. And if it does, and if it did, we would expect this particular indicee To really give up the ghost that means this give |
| 378 | 01:08:46,020 --> 01:08:55,680 | up and just stop trying to be the strong one of the day and fall, bend the knee to what the ES and the NASDAQ is then pushing on it. Because it's only 30 stocks |
| 379 | 01:08:56,130 --> 01:09:08,910 | versus 100, NASDAQ and 500 in the ES. So the point what I'm trying to make is we've already had this run on stops. So if this load is taken out, that would |
| 380 | 01:09:08,910 --> 01:09:20,820 | have accelerated the down move in ES and the NASDAQ. But because we've already had this run on sell stops on the Dow we have to be leery of this low being |
| 381 | 01:09:20,820 --> 01:09:30,480 | taken. Because we've already seen sell side liquidity taken out. So anyone that's long here, they had their stop loss trailed here a drop down cleared |
| 382 | 01:09:30,480 --> 01:09:40,980 | their stop. They're no longer long, then it rallied. Did it take out the high? No. But this drop down here has to allow for at least in my mind is how I teach |
| 383 | 01:09:40,980 --> 01:09:50,970 | my students to to weigh out the relationships of intermarket relationships in the three indices. I don't care about the rustle. You know, I don't care about |
| 384 | 01:09:51,510 --> 01:10:05,580 | that as an average. I'm learning we're just primarily about the price action in ES Dow in NASDAQ And even though I don't like this particular indicee, because |
| 385 | 01:10:05,580 --> 01:10:14,040 | it's a brand, it doesn't behave like it should, a lot of times, sometimes it will. But most of the times, it just does whatever it wants to do. And because |
| 386 | 01:10:14,040 --> 01:10:24,030 | of that, even though it has volatility, that volatility, it's notable you can see in the chart, but it doesn't mean anything to me as a trader that says, I'm |
| 387 | 01:10:24,030 --> 01:10:33,690 | going to jump on that. But the insight I just gave you in relationship to that low. That's information I do derive from using the Dow. But it doesn't need to |
| 388 | 01:10:33,690 --> 01:10:41,940 | be the Dow that had performed this very thing. Let's just say that this was the NASDAQ. and the NASDAQ had that low and it went lower low here. And then we were |
| 389 | 01:10:41,940 --> 01:10:53,580 | dropping down, I would expect in demand that that low, be taken out aggressively with speed and distance, meaning it should go right through it. And because it |
| 390 | 01:10:53,580 --> 01:11:02,430 | had no willingness to do that, at the same time on that channel, and I told you the time to candle 1015 1046 When this candle was coming down and approaching |
| 391 | 01:11:02,430 --> 01:11:17,670 | that low, at the same time, yes. Right here on that low. When it was trading lower, you shouldn't be taking profit, taking some kind of partial, because if |
| 392 | 01:11:17,670 --> 01:11:24,960 | you watch my recordings, when I'm doing examples, you can clearly see where I have my best case exit my target my limit orders sitting there. But then you |
| 393 | 01:11:24,960 --> 01:11:32,160 | watch me doing partials along the way. And sometimes it doesn't make any sense if you're new, like why am I taking partials? Why am I not just holding for my |
| 394 | 01:11:32,160 --> 01:11:39,180 | targets? That doesn't make any sense. You got new, the Joker's out there that think they know what they're talking about? And they'll say, partials are stupid |
| 395 | 01:11:39,180 --> 01:11:49,740 | doesn't make any sense. But partials pay every single time. 100% of the time. 100% of the time, a partial profit always makes money. There's never, there's |
| 396 | 01:11:49,740 --> 01:11:59,790 | never been an instance, where you as a trader or me anyone else that takes a partial profit where it did not pay you. It always works. That always works. |
| 397 | 01:11:59,790 --> 01:12:08,910 | It's 100% accuracy and profitability when you take something off in profit. That's the whole reason why you're doing this. You're not trading to get the |
| 398 | 01:12:08,910 --> 01:12:19,290 | best exit the best entry every single time. Because that's unobtainable, you can't do that. You can't No one can do that, okay? There's something there's |
| 399 | 01:12:19,290 --> 01:12:26,220 | always going to be a drag on your performance, whether it be your health, your your focus, the markets being well, in my opinion, they're very fickle. Right |
| 400 | 01:12:26,220 --> 01:12:36,780 | now, these are very challenging market conditions. I like a fast and loose market. It doesn't mean trending, it means that it has to have a lot of symmetry |
| 401 | 01:12:36,780 --> 01:12:47,070 | to it. But also these needs to be moving in a level where I can predetermine them with a great deal of ease. If I don't have that, then I have to either |
| 402 | 01:12:47,070 --> 01:12:58,500 | decide to do nothing for just simply observe, tape read. But my point was, when we're seeing it trade down here, I may not get my objective, which is what I |
| 403 | 01:12:58,500 --> 01:13:07,950 | showed you here. It may not reach that. And these are all the things that you're not privy to when I'm doing those live executions, because I'm recording it. And |
| 404 | 01:13:07,950 --> 01:13:19,020 | then I'm speeding it up inside of a two minute and 15 second limit that Twitter places on me. So I condense all that stuff. But you don't understand many times |
| 405 | 01:13:19,020 --> 01:13:29,550 | why I'm taking partials. I'm showing you the logic right now, using the Dow. How I would use that information because the Dow had already went down and took out |
| 406 | 01:13:29,550 --> 01:13:35,610 | its sell side. So I would demand that the Dow would have careened right on through that old low. |
| 407 | 01:13:37,319 --> 01:13:46,079 | And because it hadn't done so. And ES is expanding lower even though it's getting real close to my objective. You the clowns out there that will tell you |
| 408 | 01:13:46,109 --> 01:13:56,699 | hold for your target and don't take no partials it's all or nothing. What do you do in these instances like this? Do you want to be in trades to have that much |
| 409 | 01:13:56,699 --> 01:14:04,799 | of a retracement, I don't like those types of trades. Not when I'm expecting certain things to unfold like I want to be I want to be in a trade that is a low |
| 410 | 01:14:04,799 --> 01:14:15,029 | resistance liquidity run. Where it's easy, it just runs away from my objectives. And it's just like a hot knife through butter. And my tools in my teachings |
| 411 | 01:14:15,089 --> 01:14:22,769 | teach you how to find those conditions. But those conditions don't exist every single day. And that's the problem with new traders coming to me. They think |
| 412 | 01:14:22,769 --> 01:14:31,649 | because of what I'm teaching, therefore it should be every single day because they take my my mottos every week every day and it won't stop the logic of what |
| 413 | 01:14:31,649 --> 01:14:42,179 | I teach is there every day. But your specific model now listen, this is important. Your specific model, the thing that you look for the framework that |
| 414 | 01:14:42,179 --> 01:14:52,349 | gives you the trade idea, the entry mechanism, the multiplier that you use to get into that trade may not be there that session that day on that particular |
| 415 | 01:14:52,349 --> 01:15:01,499 | asset, but it will exist somewhere else in another asset and that's the problem. That's the problem because that invites the thing teach you not to do which is |
| 416 | 01:15:01,499 --> 01:15:11,849 | have 28 different markets, and you try to scatter your attention, you can't do that you would be better rewarded by limiting your focus to one or two at most |
| 417 | 01:15:12,329 --> 01:15:23,189 | closely correlated markets like NASDAQ and ES, or if you're trading Forex, British Pound and Euro dollar, which is exactly how I taught for years, when I |
| 418 | 01:15:23,189 --> 01:15:32,429 | was predominately teaching Forex, using the doubt in dollar index as a intermarket relationship, that would be inversely related to what the |
| 419 | 01:15:32,429 --> 01:15:43,739 | performance of cable and euro would do. So right away, you can see everything on his outline. All that was a reason and justification for this type of move here. |
| 420 | 01:15:44,009 --> 01:15:51,299 | So for the people that say, don't take partials, grayed out, you just got stopped out, well done, you got nothing. For the time you invested, you got |
| 421 | 01:15:51,299 --> 01:16:03,509 | nothing. Who's the greater fool someone that uses logic that yields partial if they for nothing more, still, again, still a profit versus the guy that wants to |
| 422 | 01:16:03,509 --> 01:16:19,079 | teach your stop loss. That's your that's your exit. And your target is your only profit. Like that's, that's really, really placing a lot of demand on your |
| 423 | 01:16:19,079 --> 01:16:28,529 | performance, when you don't have that experience in the beginning. How could you reasonably expect to have the wherewithal to get into a trade where you know |
| 424 | 01:16:28,529 --> 01:16:35,789 | that you got a solid entry, you know, get your stop loss is unlikely to get hit? And you know, for certainty, don't think about this? That's what's being |
| 425 | 01:16:36,539 --> 01:16:47,639 | promoted in this logic, don't take partials, you're stating that in your infancy as a developing student and trader, you know, absolutely 100% That your targets |
| 426 | 01:16:47,639 --> 01:16:59,459 | getting hit. So accept nothing less, that my friends is too myopic. That is someone that is posing as an educator, but has really no idea they're talking |
| 427 | 01:16:59,459 --> 01:17:07,979 | about. You can't take someone that's new a greenhorn right off the streets, never done this before, and tell them, hopefully, your full target or get |
| 428 | 01:17:07,979 --> 01:17:16,619 | stopped out and learn from it, you know, you're gonna learn that you probably don't have the discipline or patience to stay at this long enough to find |
| 429 | 01:17:16,619 --> 01:17:27,959 | profitability in that approach. Whereas I teach, if it gives you something to take off, take it. That little reward many times is the thing that carries you |
| 430 | 01:17:27,959 --> 01:17:36,779 | through the times that everybody goes through, when they're learning how to do this. And price action is like this. This stuff right here, this is the stuff |
| 431 | 01:17:37,169 --> 01:17:44,849 | that breaks the backs of new students. They don't want to stay in this, they think there's something else better. They're going to chase something else. |
| 432 | 01:17:45,359 --> 01:17:54,269 | Because somebody else out there did something with really no logic behind it. And they want to champion that result on social media. And they think well have |
| 433 | 01:17:54,269 --> 01:18:00,779 | they got something and you go chase them, and then they go into a tailspin, they can't find the big news or they can't find a real nice move, and somebody else |
| 434 | 01:18:00,779 --> 01:18:12,419 | is producing that. They look at I did oh, let me jump over there and do that. Versus sticking to a logic that works well in the right market conditions. Think |
| 435 | 01:18:13,169 --> 01:18:25,559 | you're here to learn how to read price action and control your emotions and your actions. You have to have a reason to be pushing a button. But I'm showing you |
| 436 | 01:18:25,739 --> 01:18:36,539 | in these live streams that there are times when you don't want to push the button you don't want to do it because the logic behind having pushed it would |
| 437 | 01:18:36,539 --> 01:18:38,849 | be basically the equivalent to gambling. |
| 438 | 01:18:52,800 --> 01:18:55,800 | A lower low here on NASDAQ but look what was going on. Yes. |
| 439 | 01:18:57,779 --> 01:19:02,789 | So we're all over the place. Let's go back to dow |
| 440 | 01:19:08,460 --> 01:19:16,800 | can't remember what I said earlier about this low here. We already cleared out sell side. So the only reason to come back down below that low is to completely |
| 441 | 01:19:16,800 --> 01:19:29,790 | wipe out all the movement higher on the Dow and that would accelerate the lower moves on ES and NASDAQ all this run looking at here's your imbalance. So in a |
| 442 | 01:19:29,790 --> 01:19:39,330 | symmetrical perfect market condition the market should have went right to that there and then rolled over none of this should happen but what's resting above |
| 443 | 01:19:39,330 --> 01:19:55,620 | these highs what's what's above these highs here? What kind of stops and who's using that stop shorts. So how they protect the short position a buy stop. So |
| 444 | 01:19:55,650 --> 01:20:12,840 | all this run up here is setting the stage for a ram of Have you which is problematic? For? Yes. Moving lower. So we didn't get down to that imbalance |
| 445 | 01:20:12,840 --> 01:20:23,760 | identified it could have could have reached for. We did go lower. We traded below the sell side here. But that was very, very short lived in what was the |
| 446 | 01:20:23,760 --> 01:20:36,030 | warning sign what I showed you in the Dow real time explaining it to you why it's likely to be a factor in seeing the sustain price run lower on ES. Even |
| 447 | 01:20:36,030 --> 01:20:44,250 | though the target was identified? How do you know when a target is not going to get there, Michael, these are lessons I can't write in a paragraph. I can't |
| 448 | 01:20:44,250 --> 01:20:52,680 | write a book and have chapters that talk about that. You have to see me doing it like this. Because then it makes you remember this now because you solve it, |
| 449 | 01:20:53,100 --> 01:21:01,200 | you're going to know okay, if I'm going to price run, and I'm going to trade. How is the other averages? If I'm trading your stock indices, or your trading |
| 450 | 01:21:01,200 --> 01:21:09,540 | stock indices? Let's say it that way? How do you trust that the trades likely continue? Well, the things I'm telling you to look for. But if you have these |
| 451 | 01:21:09,540 --> 01:21:21,690 | big road bulletin boards, like we saw in the Dow, saying, Okay, we're having difficulty here, expecting it to go lower, because the Dow already ran itself |
| 452 | 01:21:21,690 --> 01:21:30,660 | side. So if it's not likely to take that low out, then you probably should be taking partials as it's careening into your target, just take a partial because |
| 453 | 01:21:30,660 --> 01:21:41,700 | you might not get that target field. And when you do get stopped out on your balance, guess how it feels. I mean, money, you didn't beat me, that's what I |
| 454 | 01:21:41,700 --> 01:21:50,220 | think in my head all the time, every single time I do that, you didn't beat me, you stopped me from getting all of what I was trying to get. But I still took |
| 455 | 01:21:50,220 --> 01:21:59,520 | something off your rear end. That's how I look at it. So I don't look at it as chess, I look at it as gladiators. Okay, I'm stepping out there, I'm putting my |
| 456 | 01:21:59,520 --> 01:22:10,230 | expectation in the marketplace. And I'm in there warring like you are expecting to take a pound of flesh. And I might not get a full pound, I may get a quarter |
| 457 | 01:22:10,230 --> 01:22:18,090 | pound, I might get a half a pound. But they didn't take anything off of me. And I don't feel any regret when the market trades against me and stops out my |
| 458 | 01:22:18,120 --> 01:22:25,980 | remaining balance. Because as soon as you take partial, then you reduce the stock, you do not reduce your stop to break even or better, until you take a |
| 459 | 01:22:25,980 --> 01:22:34,650 | partial. That's a very hard thing to grow accustomed to as a new trader, because you're thinking, I gotta get to breakeven, I gotta get to protect myself, I |
| 460 | 01:22:34,650 --> 01:22:43,050 | don't want to take a losing trade that needs to stop. You need to stop worrying about that. And the easiest way to get over that is learning what I'm teaching |
| 461 | 01:22:43,050 --> 01:22:52,080 | you to avoid the conditions like we're seeing here, where it's iffy, it's really hard for price to heavy, sustained price runs to reach into your targets without |
| 462 | 01:22:52,080 --> 01:23:03,600 | having this choppy retracements. It's frustrating. So that's why I teach in a mentorship capacity. Most of the these lessons are to keep your mindset focused |
| 463 | 01:23:03,600 --> 01:23:12,540 | on Yeah, you can observe price action in these types of conditions. Yes, you can expect some type of fluctuations and see it paying out to a certain degree. But |
| 464 | 01:23:12,540 --> 01:23:21,720 | not like in low resistance liquidity runs where the market is simply lays it in your hands and asked you if you want more. Whereas this one, when it's like |
| 465 | 01:23:21,720 --> 01:23:28,860 | this, this is high resistance, high resistance liquidity runs. Yeah, you get movement. Yeah, you can probably see this in that painting out but you're not |
| 466 | 01:23:28,860 --> 01:23:39,900 | getting the full runs. And everything is disjointed. Whereas, you know, a symmetrical market. And this is what you should be writing down your journal. By |
| 467 | 01:23:39,900 --> 01:23:53,640 | the way. A symmetrical market is where the dollar is going higher. and the NASDAQ, the Dow and the ES are moving lower. And they're not having much of any |
| 468 | 01:23:53,640 --> 01:24:01,890 | kind of consolidation or retracement when the price runs begin. That's a symmetrical market, you have a risk off scenario, dollar higher, all indices |
| 469 | 01:24:01,890 --> 01:24:11,070 | moving in the same direction. And they're all moving very nicely. And all price inefficiencies are being respected. Whereas here we have a lot of give and take. |
| 470 | 01:24:11,070 --> 01:24:19,530 | It's back and forth. I don't like these types of conditions. Can I find five handles on that? Yes. But I know I can. Whatever I could do in an environment |
| 471 | 01:24:19,530 --> 01:24:29,130 | like this, I can do 10 times more. If I just wait to next day or the day after that. That's maturity. That's experience. You as a new student don't have that. |
| 472 | 01:24:29,250 --> 01:24:37,440 | So you think that the only trade that's ever going to matter is the one you're about to take right now. And your entire career rests upon the outcome of this |
| 473 | 01:24:37,470 --> 01:24:46,770 | next trade. It sounds silly, but if you really think about it, that's exactly what you're doing. I know it because I did that too. And that was because I |
| 474 | 01:24:46,770 --> 01:24:54,600 | didn't know how to trade. I didn't know how to read price. I didn't know the consistency on how these things form multiple times over the course of a week. |
| 475 | 01:24:55,920 --> 01:25:07,440 | And when you have this understanding, and you have this experience. You don't feel like a victim of your own emotions where you feel like you gotta do |
| 476 | 01:25:07,440 --> 01:25:16,080 | something, I gotta push a button, I gotta do something. No, you don't, who says you have to do anything. I'm saying you have to learn how to reprice. And you |
| 477 | 01:25:16,080 --> 01:25:26,070 | have to form discipline, and build self control. Those are skill sets that happen. By doing what we're doing here, not one button was pushed, no entry, |
| 478 | 01:25:26,100 --> 01:25:39,720 | nothing. I'm thankful that I've done nothing today. I'm appreciative of the fact that I am aware still, that these are conditions that are going to be |
| 479 | 01:25:39,720 --> 01:25:47,760 | problematic for me, they may not be problematic for you, you might have some kind of new widget indicator, something that you're following, and it's |
| 480 | 01:25:47,790 --> 01:25:56,160 | producing you some kind of mechanism that tells you to buy or sell. And it gives you some type of result, at the end, it tells you to get out of it, and you made |
| 481 | 01:25:56,160 --> 01:26:04,950 | money well done. You don't need to watch my videos, I'm not teaching you how to follow an indicator, okay, I'm teaching how to read price action, naked, the |
| 482 | 01:26:04,950 --> 01:26:15,780 | logic behind why it should do certain things when it shouldn't do it. And I promise you, if you learn how to do that, that's much more reassuring than any |
| 483 | 01:26:15,780 --> 01:26:24,330 | indicator, because every indicator has a period of where it just goes into a tailspin. And that's that's the reason why I dropped indicators. Because I was |
| 484 | 01:26:24,330 --> 01:26:32,070 | always in the pursuit of trying to change the settings to the ideal optimal calibration. Now, you're trying to form fit, just like I was trying to form fit, |
| 485 | 01:26:32,070 --> 01:26:39,180 | when I was trying to do that to stop worrying about all those things and just read what's price time do it's, it's only doing one or two things, okay, he's |
| 486 | 01:26:39,180 --> 01:26:47,010 | gonna go higher, we're gonna go lower. If it's not gonna consolidate, we don't want to do any consolidation trading. But if it's not consolidating and take |
| 487 | 01:26:47,010 --> 01:26:53,400 | that out of the equation, it's only do one or two things go higher or go lower. And it's only going to go higher for one of two things, it's going to go up for |
| 488 | 01:26:53,400 --> 01:27:00,990 | buy side was going to go up to a premium imbalance that's going to reprice to, if it's going to go lower, it's going to go down below an old low or lows for |
| 489 | 01:27:00,990 --> 01:27:12,480 | sell side, what's going to go down into some discount, inefficiency. It's a fair bit I get it, that's easy, folks. But what's hard, is knowing the climate that |
| 490 | 01:27:12,480 --> 01:27:24,690 | you're looking at right now, how to determine if the markets really likely to pan out and have a really nice run for you. That's a skill set that is not |
| 491 | 01:27:24,690 --> 01:27:36,990 | taught by anybody else. Believe me, I've spent fortunes on books and courses. And I'm telling you, nobody teaches this. Nobody does. They're always trying to |
| 492 | 01:27:36,990 --> 01:27:45,480 | sell you some kind of gimmick to get into a trade, some kind of pattern, some kind of logic to get you into something. Because they're trying to appeal to |
| 493 | 01:27:45,480 --> 01:27:55,320 | your natural tendencies to do what push the button where it takes a lot of effort on my part, to try to slow everybody's expectations down, they first come |
| 494 | 01:27:55,320 --> 01:28:04,170 | to me, because you need to have patience. And if I go in there and start teaching you buying and selling entry points, all I'm going to do is ensure that |
| 495 | 01:28:04,170 --> 01:28:16,980 | you fail faster, without understanding why you should take that buy or sell in the first place. Think about it for a second. What matters more your entry point |
| 496 | 01:28:17,850 --> 01:28:28,170 | or where the markets going. Because if you know where it's going, and you're using a framework that allows for enough of a range remember, I was telling you |
| 497 | 01:28:28,170 --> 01:28:36,810 | earlier in the presentation, that I teach my students to focus on 10 handle run as the framework for the trade even if you're only trying to get five handles. |
| 498 | 01:28:39,030 --> 01:28:47,760 | Because it allows a lot of forgiveness for you in your infancy as a trader and you don't know what you don't know right now. Like you don't realize the the |
| 499 | 01:28:47,760 --> 01:28:57,900 | vacuum of insight that you need, that you want to have consistency with. But you haven't adopted the things that resulted that outcome. |
| 500 | 01:28:59,939 --> 01:29:08,729 | And you're trying to avoid the things that are necessary for you to engage yourself with which is getting in in tough market conditions. Because these |
| 501 | 01:29:08,729 --> 01:29:17,009 | conditions here are going to teach you a lot about who you are and what things are going to be problematic in your trading, impatience, imposing your will. |
| 502 | 01:29:17,849 --> 01:29:26,849 | Forcing something that isn't there, chasing price once it starts moving. If you do those things in this type of market environment, you're going to lose, you're |
| 503 | 01:29:26,849 --> 01:29:34,499 | going to blow your account, you're going to lose your funded account, you're going to be very frustrated. I don't put you in front of the charts when it's |
| 504 | 01:29:34,499 --> 01:29:44,399 | like this. Just to torture you. I'm teaching you this is what you're trying to avoid. In the times that are not presenting the market conditions like this. |
| 505 | 01:29:44,759 --> 01:29:55,199 | You'll see it's a lot easier. And you do most of your work there. But you exercise patience and discipline in these market environments. You tell yourself |
| 506 | 01:29:55,259 --> 01:30:04,859 | I'm not expecting a big explosive type of market move here and You watch what price does. And you put yourself in a situation that if you were short, how |
| 507 | 01:30:04,859 --> 01:30:13,319 | would you feel about your short? If you were long, how would you feel about your long? What would you want to see happen? And you go through that internal |
| 508 | 01:30:13,379 --> 01:30:20,999 | dialogue while you're watching price, you're not trying to be right about anything. But the experience that you get are watching price paint like this |
| 509 | 01:30:21,029 --> 01:30:32,879 | without any monetary connection, whether it be demo trade or paper trade or a funded account or a Live account. All you're trying to do is determine what your |
| 510 | 01:30:32,879 --> 01:30:40,769 | mind what your psychology about what you're seeing in price action is telling you as the person not the trader, because you're not the trader yet you're just |
| 511 | 01:30:40,799 --> 01:30:55,649 | learning. But what are you focusing on? Do you feel? Well, do you feel like you missed something? That's impatience. Do you feel like you should get in here |
| 512 | 01:30:55,649 --> 01:31:05,909 | right now and push a demo? Well, that is impulsiveness. They're going to manifest themselves in your real trading and unless you learn coping mechanisms |
| 513 | 01:31:06,179 --> 01:31:21,839 | to overcome that and replace it with real positive things, that counter act those impulsiveness, impatience. Gambling chasing price. Okay, fearing missing a |
| 514 | 01:31:21,839 --> 01:31:31,169 | move, getting in after God ran eight handles. Yeah, see, if you're a guy, it could go down. But what if it doesn't let me just buy it now. And then it goes |
| 515 | 01:31:31,169 --> 01:31:40,619 | down the fair value. All those things, you need to know what you're going to feel internally, you may not have any things I just mentioned. But chances are |
| 516 | 01:31:40,619 --> 01:31:52,679 | you probably had at least two and need to recognize that before you put money at risk. To make people want to get here and just start making money. And you can't |
| 517 | 01:31:52,679 --> 01:32:02,939 | consistently do that. If you don't discover who you are, and how you're going to derail yourself. And the only way you can determine that is not by reading a |
| 518 | 01:32:02,939 --> 01:32:13,529 | book read their written by me in the future or anyone else's, or buying a course or using an indicator based strategy that they create or authored or new sell or |
| 519 | 01:32:13,529 --> 01:32:25,469 | market weather. All those things are going to keep you distracted from finding where your problems are, because they're always internal. Every single losing |
| 520 | 01:32:25,469 --> 01:32:35,939 | trade has one common denominator, it's them. They did it. They push themselves in the trade. They put themselves in a trade that they knew, if they were |
| 521 | 01:32:35,939 --> 01:32:45,659 | honest, that it was probably not going to work, it's not going to work. But you just don't have the courage, discipline and self control to stop, turn the |
| 522 | 01:32:45,659 --> 01:32:56,129 | charts off and come back another time when it's more likely to pan out in your favor. So you don't have that. So you're thinking I sat in from these charts? I |
| 523 | 01:32:56,129 --> 01:33:03,089 | put all this time into it. And what do I have to show for it? We didn't do anything. We didn't push the button. I'm done nothing. But you've learned how to |
| 524 | 01:33:03,089 --> 01:33:16,259 | do what manage it a trade idea? If we're looking for lower prices, how do we know that it's not likely to continue before it reverses on you? That's what I |
| 525 | 01:33:16,259 --> 01:33:24,119 | outlined today. The last livestream I did. I picked a condition I said, you know, here's a, here's a low probability condition. So I warned you ahead of |
| 526 | 01:33:24,119 --> 01:33:29,969 | time telling you this is something I would not take a trade on, but we're going to force an ID on it. Okay, we're going to push it into the marketplace. And |
| 527 | 01:33:29,969 --> 01:33:37,079 | we're gonna say this is a fair value gap. And we're gonna say that this was where we would go short, just watch the last thing you'll hear and see it. And |
| 528 | 01:33:37,079 --> 01:33:48,599 | then it would have resulted in a trade that didn't really pan out. But we learned real time. How we say, Okay, this is not what it should be doing. It |
| 529 | 01:33:48,659 --> 01:33:58,439 | traded outside the lines in the boundaries. So we could collapse the trade and have a very small loss. Just like I teach in partials with profits, I teach and |
| 530 | 01:33:58,439 --> 01:34:08,699 | taught in that live stream real time where you can take your stop loss and reduce it. Without moving it, it's okay, I'm not willing to take a full stop |
| 531 | 01:34:08,699 --> 01:34:16,139 | out. We're in that trade, I would have been a full stop and even talked about when I was 20 year old, where I would wrestle with the idea instead of saying, |
| 532 | 01:34:16,289 --> 01:34:27,059 | I'm wrong, in either close the trade, take partials off, not in profit, but take partials in terms of the position size and reduce it which would otherwise be a |
| 533 | 01:34:27,059 --> 01:34:36,809 | reduction in exposed risk. I didn't want to do that as a 20 year old. So I would move my stop or remove it entirely. And if I would have done that net live |
| 534 | 01:34:36,809 --> 01:34:44,609 | stream, you can see the effects of that. And that's what I was doing to myself as a 20 year old, but you heard me explain how that is not what you saw. And you |
| 535 | 01:34:44,609 --> 01:34:52,619 | didn't see that in price. So therefore, you would collapse the trade here and then moved over to NASDAQ. And it's okay here's a buy in showed you how it went |
| 536 | 01:34:52,619 --> 01:35:01,049 | up and that would have covered and mitigated that loss when you go back to the original chart or market that you're following which was Yes, and then we want |
| 537 | 01:35:01,049 --> 01:35:11,489 | to go up and pan out, like gangbusters. Those are the lessons you can't learn from a book. And nobody includes those lessons in their courses. Because trust |
| 538 | 01:35:11,489 --> 01:35:20,309 | me, I bought just about everything that's avail. I don't buy it anymore, ever since 2007 or eight, I think it was the last time I bought anything. And I was |
| 539 | 01:35:20,309 --> 01:35:27,299 | really just buying it just to see what they were doing, see if any more stuff was creeping in the things. Now everything is got my stuff in it. But it's |
| 540 | 01:35:27,299 --> 01:35:38,759 | incomplete. Because these types of lessons, I can't, I can't communicate it effectively in like a, like a book format. So the things that I can't teach in |
| 541 | 01:35:38,759 --> 01:35:47,039 | the books that I'm writing, I'm including in these live sessions, because I'm going to refer to them by date in the books. So that we can see I'm referring |
| 542 | 01:35:47,039 --> 01:35:55,829 | back to something I've talked about in these in these very live sessions. So that way, it kind of gives you a greater context. And example, versus if I just |
| 543 | 01:35:55,829 --> 01:36:03,299 | showed you a chart that static you weren't here. You weren't there at a time, where now you can see this is what it was like this is we were watching this is |
| 544 | 01:36:03,299 --> 01:36:14,519 | what was impactful at that time. To me, if I were to learn like this, I would have been far better sooner. So I try to teach in a way where if I could go back |
| 545 | 01:36:14,519 --> 01:36:25,469 | and be the mentor to myself, that's why I'm talking to you. Again, I'm talking really to my child. So we're seeing a run that would have smoked the guys that |
| 546 | 01:36:25,469 --> 01:36:36,419 | say, don't take partials they don't see a common we can we can see all these warning signs. They're there. They're not we're not surprised by any of this. So |
| 547 | 01:36:36,419 --> 01:36:40,229 | that by side up here, 4142 and three quarters. So we're looking to see go |
| 548 | 01:36:46,229 --> 01:37:00,329 | and let's take a look at the NASDAQ See how she's behaving. Alright, so we're backup in that fair value got now this, we will treat this now. As a inversion, |
| 549 | 01:37:00,449 --> 01:37:12,959 | fair value got. So you said easy many times I f v g, that's inversion. Treat it like what you expect your support resistance idea where it's a specific, one |
| 550 | 01:37:12,959 --> 01:37:22,409 | level. This is the actual thing that would act as support resistance. So if we trade above it, come back down, like see a candle touch over there and expand up |
| 551 | 01:37:22,409 --> 01:37:34,079 | and work into this area here. There's by side there. There's buyside here. Let's go and look at the Dow. We had buyside in our crosshairs on that one. Then here |
| 552 | 01:37:34,079 --> 01:37:43,229 | we go. Rather than equal highs. I told you what would be above that my side, what was the warning sign? We already seen sell stops taken on this pass below |
| 553 | 01:37:43,229 --> 01:37:53,969 | that low. So this is just a retracement lower. But it was helpful in the regards of how we would manage our ES or NASDAQ trade, take partials how much how much |
| 554 | 01:37:53,969 --> 01:38:01,979 | of a partial Do you think you would have taken? Given the context, I was outlining real time with this this low in relationship that we're having already |
| 555 | 01:38:01,979 --> 01:38:14,729 | seen this doorstops, you would take 50% You don't take your lowest partial off, you take a large portion off. Because you have warning signs that it's not |
| 556 | 01:38:14,729 --> 01:38:24,659 | likely to do what it's not likely to go lower. But if it does, that's great. You have the power for your position still on. In the short run es are short on the |
| 557 | 01:38:24,659 --> 01:38:25,319 | NASDAQ. |
| 558 | 01:38:27,510 --> 01:38:28,680 | And it's good, my thick Yes. |
| 559 | 01:38:31,109 --> 01:38:40,499 | Telling you folks, I mean, I would have paid a fortune for the learning how to read it like this. And no buttons are being pushed. But you're gaining all kinds |
| 560 | 01:38:40,499 --> 01:38:48,629 | of insight that this can't be appreciated until you see what it feels like the habit, the next time you look at price action you have experienced that you can |
| 561 | 01:38:48,629 --> 01:38:57,689 | lean on. It's not the same as write a book or chapter. You can't just take the information from the pages and walk out here into the charts and feel like |
| 562 | 01:38:57,689 --> 01:39:05,609 | you're connected to it. It's not the same experience. Whereas watching price action and seeing the things that are going to creep into your trading. You |
| 563 | 01:39:05,609 --> 01:39:13,949 | think about how many times have you read a book, things that are going to be problematic to your trades and why and how they form. That's chapters I'm |
| 564 | 01:39:13,949 --> 01:39:22,199 | writing. But they're No they're not. They're in books right now. Everything that I do on my mentorship is along the lines of those types of things. I'm filling |
| 565 | 01:39:22,199 --> 01:39:31,589 | the void that everybody else has. It doesn't matter if you like me or don't like me, doesn't matter if you are profitable or unprofitable with your strategies, |
| 566 | 01:39:32,159 --> 01:39:45,119 | the things that are permeated in everybody's experience as a developing student of price action or trader. We all go through these things. And we all know the |
| 567 | 01:39:45,119 --> 01:39:55,979 | things that we hate about trading. You hate having to wait for the setup. You hate having had sat in front of all these charts and time wasted in your mind, |
| 568 | 01:39:56,399 --> 01:40:05,609 | but you're not wasting time. When you're new you should do this Rs, you should be there looking at watching how price paints, studying the time references, and |
| 569 | 01:40:05,609 --> 01:40:14,189 | where did the setups form? Where's it turned? How far is it go? Where's it gravitate to? Where's the draw and liquidity? How much drawdown was there? Once |
| 570 | 01:40:14,189 --> 01:40:22,139 | the formation occurs where your entry, your multiplier, your PDA forms, how much time does it take to get to that buy side, or that sell side in deference to the |
| 571 | 01:40:22,259 --> 01:40:37,589 | short holders. Those things are impactful, because you're going to see when I show a trade example, and I'm catering to the short attention span that social |
| 572 | 01:40:37,589 --> 01:40:46,079 | media has cultivated in everyone. Now, I admit I have a very short attention span to makes it very hard for me to focus on any one thing, I'm easily |
| 573 | 01:40:46,079 --> 01:40:54,449 | distracted. But when I'm talking about candlesticks, my attention is focused. So I can kind of be a little bit more balanced than a normal. And if I wasn't doing |
| 574 | 01:40:54,449 --> 01:41:02,189 | this, if I was to sell here, you're talking like on a Twitter space, and I go off the rails and my mind is runs. But here, it allows me to keep my focus on |
| 575 | 01:41:02,219 --> 01:41:16,319 | the context of what I believe price is doing the internal dialogue I'm sharing with the real time. But you, you have no idea, the impact of studying without |
| 576 | 01:41:16,319 --> 01:41:25,829 | pushing a button is going to have on you until you start doing it. It's not wasting time, you're investing in yourself. And you're rewarding yourself with |
| 577 | 01:41:25,829 --> 01:41:36,779 | experience that you can't get any other way. You can't, there's no other way to obtain this, except for being in front of charts and studying in real time. And |
| 578 | 01:41:36,779 --> 01:41:48,179 | measuring how you, you, each one of you listening to me are going to bring to this endeavor, your own problems. But you don't want to see them as problems |
| 579 | 01:41:48,179 --> 01:41:57,839 | until the manifest in your charts. You're trading your perspective and how you react to what price is doing. Are you mad about what has happened today? Are you |
| 580 | 01:41:58,289 --> 01:42:09,509 | angry that it didn't didn't do a specific thing that's showing you something about yourself in books don't do a sufficient job of dealing with identifying |
| 581 | 01:42:09,509 --> 01:42:19,109 | that number one and two, how do you correct it? Because that's exactly what's going to undo you. That's the thing that's going to be in your way, it's not the |
| 582 | 01:42:19,109 --> 01:42:28,379 | fact that these concepts don't work because they do. It's not because the logic is flawed because it isn't flawed. It's what you're doing with the information. |
| 583 | 01:42:29,309 --> 01:42:40,919 | What are you doing with this information? are you abusing and using it outside of the rules and context that was presented to you 99% of the time, if any of my |
| 584 | 01:42:40,919 --> 01:42:49,769 | students have that that's exactly what they've done. Or they listen to somebody else that has dollar menu mentorships. And they want to do everything on a five |
| 585 | 01:42:49,769 --> 01:42:58,409 | minute trainer basis. And you can't condense this. These are the things that you have to go through. And this is exactly what I was putting my mentorship |
| 586 | 01:42:58,409 --> 01:43:05,849 | students through who paid me they had to sit here and watch the jawbone, about the price action. And because there was no button being pushed, the weak minded |
| 587 | 01:43:05,849 --> 01:43:15,809 | individuals would quit. The ones that endured it, they're the ones you're seeing now they're being interviewed. They went through all of this. And they did it |
| 588 | 01:43:15,809 --> 01:43:24,359 | when I wasn't doing it too. They took it serious, they treat it like a business and an investment in themselves. And if you don't have those characteristics in |
| 589 | 01:43:24,359 --> 01:43:34,679 | yourself, you have to develop them, otherwise you will be removed. This business has an efficient way of taking out the trash. In, if you come in here with the |
| 590 | 01:43:34,679 --> 01:43:46,319 | trash mentality that it's gonna be easy for you and it's owed to you to be fast and quick. You're gonna be treated like trash, you're gonna be taken out in the |
| 591 | 01:43:46,319 --> 01:43:57,449 | bin. And there's nothing you can do about it until you change how you think. I had to endure that too. I didn't like it. It wasn't pleasurable. It wasn't fun. |
| 592 | 01:43:58,139 --> 01:44:08,699 | I tried to hide it. I tried to pretend it wasn't really there. I tried to blame everything I was learning. And it was me. And then when I corrected those things |
| 593 | 01:44:08,699 --> 01:44:19,139 | and replaced them with being diligent, organized, placing limitations on what I'm expecting to see in price action, what do I want to see? Which shouldn't |
| 594 | 01:44:19,139 --> 01:44:29,519 | take place, and then spending time identifying the things that repeated that caused or negated those conditions being impressed. That's the workload that |
| 595 | 01:44:29,579 --> 01:44:37,469 | everybody else that tries to teach my stuff doesn't deserve the credit they received because they didn't endure anything. They're just echoing me. And |
| 596 | 01:44:37,469 --> 01:44:47,999 | you're echoing just a small portion of it. This is the stuff. This is the stuff that I would have paid 10 times what I charge for mentorship, just to have an |
| 597 | 01:44:48,299 --> 01:44:58,019 | experience shown to me like this. Because these are the things that I hurt myself with not knowing these things. Not knowing these things in allowing a |
| 598 | 01:44:58,019 --> 01:45:10,589 | very small little disruption, an idea that I was trying to make happen in the charts. And I wouldn't let go of it wouldn't feel comfortable changing |
| 599 | 01:45:10,589 --> 01:45:22,019 | directions. What I had to learn that skill, I had to learn to let go of an idea that I may have started the day with, how many times have you fallen victim to |
| 600 | 01:45:22,019 --> 01:45:32,369 | that? You do your analysis, you have the expectation of the markets going to do a specific thing. But then it doesn't. And then you get stopped out. And you |
| 601 | 01:45:32,369 --> 01:45:43,409 | force it. Oh, it's going to do it now. Because you're right. And then you take another trade and you lose. But no, no amount of drawdown on those two trades, |
| 602 | 01:45:43,589 --> 01:45:51,359 | is going to deter you from taking that third trade. Because you're right. And you take the third trade, and either blow your account, or put yourself in the |
| 603 | 01:45:51,359 --> 01:46:02,609 | severe drawdown. How many times have you done that? If you're following me on Twitter, give me a number one, to send me a tweet Number one, don't worry, I |
| 604 | 01:46:02,609 --> 01:46:14,399 | don't judge you. But the fact that you acknowledging that you're testifying to something that I'm teaching you how to avoid that that one moment isn't limited |
| 605 | 01:46:14,399 --> 01:46:25,829 | to the drawdown or the blown account, you now have scar tissue. And it's going to impact every trade that you take the rest of your career. And you want to |
| 606 | 01:46:25,829 --> 01:46:36,209 | minimize scar tissue in the beginning, which is the reason why I teach through demo. You don't have any reason to be upset. But you have all the upside in |
| 607 | 01:46:36,209 --> 01:46:45,149 | terms of understanding and learning. You have pain free learning, except for pride and for men. For men, that hurts worse, somebody will probably cut their |
| 608 | 01:46:45,149 --> 01:46:46,799 | pinky off before they had their pride hurt. |
| 609 | 01:46:53,010 --> 01:47:09,900 | So look at this day. What do you see here? That frames? Very, very high probability and low risk. It's not there, folks. It's not. There's fluctuation |
| 610 | 01:47:09,900 --> 01:47:18,660 | in price price changed? Yes. There was a rate of change from highs and lows. Yes, that occurred. Absolutely occurred, it occurred. Definitely. I'm not |
| 611 | 01:47:18,660 --> 01:47:33,660 | denying that I'm not arguing that. But what here in price action, screams at you that I should have taken this trade. And I would have felt strong convictions |
| 612 | 01:47:33,660 --> 01:47:49,020 | about having done so and had no fear. I wouldn't be impacted by the slow lethargic price action before it moves. The back and forth choppiness that |
| 613 | 01:47:49,080 --> 01:48:01,800 | trades back inside of forehand five handle consolidation for it moves. That's the that's the difficulty in teaching with static price action, showing you a |
| 614 | 01:48:01,800 --> 01:48:10,770 | screenshot saying Look at this. Look at this, look at this. This is the reason why I told everybody my PDF that were being shared and leaked. When I was doing |
| 615 | 01:48:10,770 --> 01:48:21,390 | paid mentorship, that stuff doesn't work for you. Okay, it doesn't work. The PDS read this for students to write their own observations and notes, what they felt |
| 616 | 01:48:21,540 --> 01:48:30,960 | when we were doing the lesson at that time, just like this right here. Everything I've talked about here, it probably bored the socks off of something |
| 617 | 01:48:30,960 --> 01:48:37,800 | and you probably want to turn the video off, and you probably can't hear me telling you this part. But the other individuals that are still here, you have |
| 618 | 01:48:37,800 --> 01:48:48,690 | exactly what it takes to learn this. You're here, you're here, when it's not a reason to push a button. You're here understanding what it is I'm teaching, |
| 619 | 01:48:48,930 --> 01:48:58,080 | explain to you why price is behaving the way it is. And you want to know this in the beginning, it doesn't feel like it's a skill that you should aspire to have. |
| 620 | 01:48:59,100 --> 01:49:10,920 | But we're learning what not to do is the most important thing. Imagine we were learning how to skydive. You wouldn't want me as a skydiving instructor. I'm |
| 621 | 01:49:10,920 --> 01:49:23,880 | scared to death of heights. But they teach you all the procedures about safety. You never got an airplane yet. How's your parachute packed? How do you pull the |
| 622 | 01:49:23,880 --> 01:49:31,410 | parachute? What happens if your chute doesn't open? What happens if there's a problem with your parachute? What's the procedure? What do you do? Use your |
| 623 | 01:49:31,410 --> 01:49:41,340 | reserve. So they're teaching you that in advance so that way when you do for some stupid reason, I don't know why anybody would jump out of perfectly good |
| 624 | 01:49:41,340 --> 01:49:50,220 | airplane. But hey, everybody finds their own thrills and seeks the way they want to do it right. Don't treat trading like that. It should not mean an adrenaline |
| 625 | 01:49:50,220 --> 01:49:59,370 | rush. But you do need to have those procedures in place and understand what it is you're doing and why you're going to be responding to the market. And then as |
| 626 | 01:49:59,370 --> 01:50:08,910 | I said respond You're not reacting to price, you're responding to the market and what it's presenting in terms of climate and condition. We're not reacting to |
| 627 | 01:50:08,910 --> 01:50:19,050 | price to get into a trade. Now we can respond to what price is showing us, and an unwillingness to do a specific thing. And then we may close a trade or take a |
| 628 | 01:50:19,290 --> 01:50:29,220 | large portion of our existing position off. But we're not reacting to price to get into a trade. We're not because that's chasing, we're not chasing price, |
| 629 | 01:50:29,220 --> 01:50:33,660 | we're anticipating specific things. And if the things are not panning out |
| 630 | 01:50:36,840 --> 01:50:37,890 | why should you push the button? |
| 631 | 01:50:39,180 --> 01:50:50,940 | If everything is moving against you an idea that you're expecting to see unfold? And it's not really moving all that much? Why should you be incurring risk? |
| 632 | 01:50:52,050 --> 01:50:58,740 | Because you're going to equate that you put time in front of the charts, so therefore, I gotta get something out of this. So why do you want to open the |
| 633 | 01:50:58,740 --> 01:51:07,860 | invitation for a loss, how you're gonna feel about it, then you'll never read, you'll never be able to take the information that was presented to you in a |
| 634 | 01:51:07,860 --> 01:51:13,920 | situation like this, like today. If you go and say, Okay, I've had enough of this guy talking, I'm just gonna go and take a trade. And then you take that |
| 635 | 01:51:13,920 --> 01:51:26,070 | trade and you lose, everything that you would have retained is insight. Useful information, you now have replaced with a negative experience. Now you did |
| 636 | 01:51:26,070 --> 01:51:34,830 | something that I told you, you know, you shouldn't do and that's going to be in your head. I hope I never meet this guy because he didn't say I told you I would |
| 637 | 01:51:34,830 --> 01:51:45,390 | never say that. I don't need to because you're going to do with the rest of your week. Rest of your month, until November and even after that because you're |
| 638 | 01:51:45,390 --> 01:51:58,320 | doing something you know you shouldn't do. But your impulsiveness your reluctance in allowing yourself to go through this experience which is normal |
| 639 | 01:51:58,320 --> 01:52:08,700 | mentorship, this is exactly what it is if you do anything, learning, there's those dry spells of things that are most important. But nobody wants to go |
| 640 | 01:52:08,700 --> 01:52:21,660 | through it. They want to get right to the the brass tacks, the nuts and bolts, give me the action I want to get out there and start making money. And you'll |
| 641 | 01:52:21,870 --> 01:52:36,690 | see stuff that isn't there. You you'll see something in charts that isn't likely to really produce much at all. You'll force it like an inkblot, you'll see what |
| 642 | 01:52:36,690 --> 01:52:48,990 | you want to see. You'll manifest the very thing that you want to be there and it's not there. You're imposing your will. Your impatience is forcing you to |
| 643 | 01:52:48,990 --> 01:52:53,190 | make a decision about something that is not sound logic |
| 644 | 01:52:58,830 --> 01:53:01,770 | so much, so much. reaction here at that. |
| 645 | 01:53:03,390 --> 01:53:05,850 | New week opening gap high 4140 and a half. |
| 646 | 01:53:10,800 --> 01:53:23,340 | So we are entering about 20 minutes to launch our noon. I'll hang out with you until noon. So I'm looking at the dollar index Dollar Index has buyside resting |
| 647 | 01:53:23,340 --> 01:53:35,730 | around one or 223 22 and a half something to that effect. Just look at your five minute chart in the high formed between eight and nine |
| 648 | 01:53:37,020 --> 01:53:38,580 | on your furniture that would be |
| 649 | 01:53:51,029 --> 01:53:51,569 | males here |
| 650 | 01:53:53,580 --> 01:54:07,530 | Yeah, one or 222. One or two point 20 years by side. There's not much I know. But I'm watching how dollar if they can trade about that how it behaves. Euro |
| 651 | 01:54:07,530 --> 01:54:19,860 | and cable have just basically mark time hasn't done much at all today. Watch, watch the low of that new weak opening gap which is at 4137 in here and |
| 652 | 01:54:19,860 --> 01:54:23,310 | consequent encouragement between the two. Let me show you where that is because I don't have it highlighted. |
| 653 | 01:54:25,770 --> 01:54:27,210 | I only have it on the charts to |
| 654 | 01:54:28,890 --> 01:54:37,470 | show you the the levels that we would have been on your chart 38 and three quarters. That's consequent curtailment of the old new week opening gap. |
| 655 | 01:54:37,500 --> 01:54:46,500 | Remember that shaded area in gray. That's the present week where we stopped trading on Friday last week versus where we open up on Sunday. I am not in favor |
| 656 | 01:54:46,500 --> 01:54:54,570 | of that. But I'm having you here for completeness because I know some of you have already went through if you're if you came to this livestream or watched |
| 657 | 01:54:54,570 --> 01:55:02,670 | the video in different time didn't mark the first portion of it. I talked about the reasons why I would not use Use this particular new weak opening gap in my |
| 658 | 01:55:02,670 --> 01:55:19,260 | own analysis in favor the one that you're seeing here with 4150 and a half and 4137 even cracking alright so now we have price dropping back down on this old |
| 659 | 01:55:19,260 --> 01:55:23,970 | five minute ferry guy after we've taken sellside here |
| 660 | 01:55:26,520 --> 01:55:29,910 | let's take a cruise through NASDAQ real quick before I say anything more |
| 661 | 01:55:41,819 --> 01:55:45,059 | is not fun |
| 662 | 01:55:58,229 --> 01:56:04,019 | looking at my other monitors I'm reading the dollar index |
| 663 | 01:56:07,439 --> 01:56:09,179 | stick put down |
| 664 | 01:56:30,120 --> 01:56:42,480 | now let's talk about what we have here because we have taken by side with this run up here if we were to break lower |
| 665 | 01:56:45,000 --> 01:56:46,290 | and that would be |
| 666 | 01:56:48,000 --> 01:57:03,390 | it would need to be below this low right here. Okay, so below 33 812 That could set the stage for a run in here if dollar runs higher, which I'm not all that |
| 667 | 01:57:03,390 --> 01:57:13,680 | terribly excited about but I do have an interest that wanted to point 22 How it trades there if at all. And what I mean by that what I was outlining earlier |
| 668 | 01:57:14,520 --> 01:57:25,260 | when we were watching this low here doesn't have a willing to get below that and how we use the information was partials would be taken optimally with the ES or |
| 669 | 01:57:25,260 --> 01:57:36,600 | NASDAQ shorts in how much 50% of it because we have the coupling across all three averages. The averages should agree they should all be moving in tandem. |
| 670 | 01:57:38,880 --> 01:57:43,440 | We have a volume imbalance written here that you already traded to in that small little gap right there |
| 671 | 01:57:45,330 --> 01:57:46,680 | let's dress this up a little bit |
| 672 | 01:57:56,069 --> 01:58:07,709 | I'm not going to do that right unbalance you can see that yourself here I saw somebody asked me a question. And I can't recall off the top my head if it was |
| 673 | 01:58:07,709 --> 01:58:23,129 | an email or if it was some post on Twitter that he asked what mails I was using I'm actually using a laptop this is a what is this one a Spectre HP HP Spectre |
| 674 | 01:58:23,129 --> 01:58:41,279 | is like a it's like a mouse African escapes me now it's like a mouse pad thing touchpad and the reason why I don't have an external mouse on this because this |
| 675 | 01:58:41,279 --> 01:58:49,229 | actually only has one USB port on it and I have to use it with the microphone that everyone likes to complain about. This says it's too low. All my settings |
| 676 | 01:58:49,229 --> 01:59:00,299 | are high. They're all high and I don't know why folks say that they can hear me we're seeing a nice reaction here. We want to see a trade below here |
| 677 | 01:59:06,720 --> 01:59:16,710 | so Southside is here and a larger portion of sell side is now here why we've had sell side taken here below that low but what happens for the traders that were |
| 678 | 01:59:16,710 --> 01:59:27,480 | long that didn't run their stop loss right up underneath that they kept it back here well if we trade below this low here and accelerate below here that stop in |
| 679 | 01:59:27,480 --> 01:59:38,340 | the sell side liquidity that would be the pm session. If we can get a rally on dollar cable just drifted lower. |
| 680 | 01:59:41,550 --> 01:59:50,490 | Not by much don't get too excited about it but dollar still shorter that one or two point 22 Level One watching. |
| 681 | 01:59:53,729 --> 02:00:10,319 | So we have the framework here. We'll go over to NASDAQ real quick And, as a reminder, when you're looking at the tape reading, like this, what this is doing |
| 682 | 02:00:10,319 --> 02:00:18,689 | is is conditioning to because you're probably very bored right now. And that's exactly what you want your trading to be. You want your trading to be boring. |
| 683 | 02:00:19,409 --> 02:00:30,419 | You don't want it to be a reason for you to be hyperventilating. You don't want to feel any heart palpitations, nervousness sweaty palms agitated, you want to, |
| 684 | 02:00:30,689 --> 02:00:42,719 | you want to be comfortable, not feeling like every instance, that a new candle forms, or every second that ticks by the impending doom is this new looming. |
| 685 | 02:00:43,499 --> 02:00:50,639 | That's what you're trying to do to yourself with trying to trade with real money, or a funded account or try to get a funded account, before you know what |
| 686 | 02:00:50,639 --> 02:01:01,199 | you're doing. This is how you condition yourself. This is how you remove all of those things that plague every single trader out there. Everybody who's ever |
| 687 | 02:01:01,199 --> 02:01:12,929 | traded with real money, have gone through all the same things. And those psychological warfare that you put yourself through. They're all self inflicted. |
| 688 | 02:01:13,799 --> 02:01:23,129 | And the only way you can prevent that from occurring, is by conditioning. That means getting here reading price action, without having any monetary link to a |
| 689 | 02:01:23,129 --> 02:01:33,689 | reward or profit. And getting bored with reading what price is doing. And over time, when you can do it efficiently, consistently. And here's the most |
| 690 | 02:01:33,689 --> 02:01:44,879 | important thing. You have no emotion. You're not high fiving yourself. You're not peacocking around the house, parading around in front, your spouse dancing |
| 691 | 02:01:44,879 --> 02:01:54,299 | around Santa did again. That's not what you're doing. You when you say okay, well, that's what I was expecting to do in the model worked here. Wonderful. And |
| 692 | 02:01:54,299 --> 02:02:01,019 | when you don't have the impulse to go in again, because you felt good, and you want to get another one. Because if that's how you feel you're addicted to |
| 693 | 02:02:01,049 --> 02:02:12,059 | dopamine, and winning trades give the biggest hit of dopamine. But it only lasts, apparently for like three or four minutes. Because right away, you're |
| 694 | 02:02:12,059 --> 02:02:23,039 | gonna feel impulsive. Like, oh, there's another one that we're getting into another one. I'm on I got I'm on. I'm on a roll today. No, stop, turn the charts |
| 695 | 02:02:23,039 --> 02:02:34,649 | off. And go do something else and then come back and see what it did. And then that's a learning experience. Because if it moves more after you got out |
| 696 | 02:02:34,829 --> 02:02:39,179 | profitably, and you feel regret, or I wish I would have |
| 697 | 02:02:41,100 --> 02:02:42,480 | you're not ready to trade with iPhones. |
| 698 | 02:02:44,790 --> 02:02:54,900 | It doesn't sound possible, like it can't be like that. But it is it's exactly like that. It took a long time for me to see what I was doing to myself. |
| 699 | 02:03:08,489 --> 02:03:22,469 | All right now think about what we've seen this morning, I'll cover the lunch run for you. We have seen this morning price drift in a consolidation lower. Where's |
| 700 | 02:03:22,469 --> 02:03:33,959 | the liquidity for those individuals that have made money going lower? About here? And we're right here. So the way this works in lunchtime trading is the |
| 701 | 02:03:34,499 --> 02:03:46,559 | the lunchtime hour going into 130. In New York local time. Typically not every time. Typically, majority time I'll say it that way. The run during the lunch |
| 702 | 02:03:46,559 --> 02:03:59,099 | hour up to 130 will be a run against the positions or where stops will be placed on the bulk of what was seen in the am session. Meaning where was the move? The |
| 703 | 02:03:59,099 --> 02:04:10,709 | move was from this high down to that low. So where is the algorithm going to seek to reprice to to introduce that liquidity to the marketplace. It's this |
| 704 | 02:04:10,709 --> 02:04:16,829 | high in this Hi. So you want to annotate your chart like that. |
| 705 | 02:04:22,560 --> 02:04:29,040 | One of my students taught me how to do that. I'm sure some of you probably saw you do that. How do you do that? You highlight the thing you want to copy, like |
| 706 | 02:04:29,040 --> 02:04:32,100 | now it's highlighted then hold down the CTRL key and then drag |
| 707 | 02:04:33,870 --> 02:04:34,890 | and you'll have a clone of it. |
| 708 | 02:04:36,720 --> 02:04:46,590 | I've been very blessed with some very helpful students that have taught me I don't have a lot of tools and tips and hotkey type things for trading view. A |
| 709 | 02:04:47,700 --> 02:04:56,400 | lot of my students have a lot of their own little shortcuts and they they see me doing things and they're like yeah, you could do this. Yeah, I know. But I also |
| 710 | 02:04:56,400 --> 02:05:06,030 | like the drawing out too. You can make template to do This, I know what I like to draw it out. I'm an old dog, I like to do that old school way. Remember, I |
| 711 | 02:05:06,030 --> 02:05:17,580 | used to write man charts with the high low and close on a bar chart, every single market every single timeframe. So it's not a big deal for me. I'm not |
| 712 | 02:05:17,580 --> 02:05:25,470 | impatient. I'm not lazy, I don't need to indicate apply everything. For me. I like plotting it myself, because that means I'm thinking about it. In the future |
| 713 | 02:05:25,470 --> 02:05:33,240 | might be flawed, they might do something wrong, it might refer to something incorrectly. I don't have any faith in it. And again, I'm not lazy. |
| 714 | 02:05:41,069 --> 02:05:51,659 | Okay, so think about what we're seeing here, we have two down close candles here, training to a very good training backup into consequent encroachment. |
| 715 | 02:05:51,659 --> 02:06:03,149 | Remember the 3875 level, which was midpoint between the old new week opening high in all week, old week new it, the Greek or new week open and get low. Half |
| 716 | 02:06:03,149 --> 02:06:10,769 | of that is consequent encouragement. So it's like the midpoint. So we would like to see it accumulate here, because we already trapped into the high of the down |
| 717 | 02:06:10,769 --> 02:06:19,619 | close candles here. That's an order block, we also have consequent encouragement, we want to see it perform where it wants to drive up to the high |
| 718 | 02:06:19,649 --> 02:06:33,389 | of 4140 and a half and an attack the by side here. If it can get to that high. We want to see speed and distance to do what run for the orders over here. Why |
| 719 | 02:06:33,389 --> 02:06:42,089 | would we want to see it delivered like that? Why would we want to see speed and distance once it trades the here because anyone that has a stoploss here would |
| 720 | 02:06:42,089 --> 02:06:50,519 | want to do what collapse the trade and not let their orders be there when the market where you break prices to it. So we want to see a try to gravitate up |
| 721 | 02:06:50,519 --> 02:07:02,309 | into that Intune as it gets there. And we want to see an expansion reach above here. And look what's the resting rate or here we have a little bit of an |
| 722 | 02:07:02,309 --> 02:07:05,309 | imbalance here and biocides resting above that |
| 723 | 02:07:12,510 --> 02:07:14,520 | you're pushing buttons you're doing it wrong |
| 724 | 02:07:22,260 --> 02:07:28,680 | guys, you have small little fear Vega and buyside resting rate above that high here. So we'll do that again here. |
| 725 | 02:07:40,739 --> 02:07:50,579 | Okay, so in present market conditions, conditions Instructure, we don't want to see price trade below the low at 4137. That's the new weak opening gap. That's |
| 726 | 02:07:50,579 --> 02:08:00,839 | an old one. But nonetheless, it's still there. We want to see if it can go down there. We don't want to see it give up that level, it's better for it to leave |
| 727 | 02:08:01,979 --> 02:08:11,219 | the difference between this candles high or here this candle is high. And this candles low, we want to see that range between new open and got low. And this |
| 728 | 02:08:11,219 --> 02:08:22,589 | low of this candle we want to see that remain open that would act as a breakaway gap. So we're kind of forecasting not only a direction but we're also trying to |
| 729 | 02:08:22,589 --> 02:08:31,589 | forecast a behavior in price. So we want to see this area stay open, it can go down here it just means it's not likely really to be all that animated to the |
| 730 | 02:08:31,589 --> 02:08:40,199 | upside if it does so because it's in more depth in that consolidation pattern. Whereas unexpected because we're going into the noon hour in about six minutes |
| 731 | 02:08:40,199 --> 02:08:52,649 | or so. It will likely trade up into the buy side here if it can do so we want to see it become animated have a big range or a couple ranges that go up into the |
| 732 | 02:08:52,649 --> 02:08:57,419 | 4142 and three quarters level and then up into potentially up into 4145. |
| 733 | 02:09:44,010 --> 02:09:51,240 | I'm going to be here but I'm just going to walk away from the charge from it. I will be on mute. So I'm here. Just give me man I gotta step away. |
| 734 | 02:10:53,520 --> 02:10:57,630 | Okay if you follow me on Twitter just want to verify you guys can still hear me |
| 735 | 02:11:17,700 --> 02:11:20,820 | again waiting for someone to confirm you can hear me on Twitter |
| 736 | 02:11:30,779 --> 02:11:31,469 | Thank you sir |
| 737 | 02:11:37,470 --> 02:11:51,840 | alright so one or 220 $2 has been reached Euro looks like it wants to trade down into 109 2k cable has no side at |
| 738 | 02:11:56,069 --> 02:11:57,239 | 124 |
| 739 | 02:12:04,319 --> 02:12:15,989 | So we had a little bit of pullback into that little area here mostly a pop up and get this by side now it's against the order of everything now just so you |
| 740 | 02:12:15,989 --> 02:12:27,149 | understand what we're looking at Dollar is expanded higher rally and es that's not something you would expect to see it can't happen but it's problematic it's |
| 741 | 02:12:27,149 --> 02:12:35,069 | high resistance conditions we have cable going well we're Euro softer |
| 742 | 02:12:48,630 --> 02:12:50,250 | Okay hold on second |
| 743 | 02:12:58,560 --> 02:13:10,650 | so we had this low taken here this low taken here this low taken here was there any animation to the downside a lot of movement lower big ranges down no so if |
| 744 | 02:13:10,770 --> 02:13:20,700 | NASDAQ is going to fall victim to the lunch hour where it moves against the traders that have traded short to the morning session where's the buyside on it |
| 745 | 02:13:30,600 --> 02:13:35,670 | here and here |
| 746 | 02:13:41,340 --> 02:13:42,000 | yes |
| 747 | 02:14:06,930 --> 02:14:08,730 | said I was gonna take this off I apologize |
| 748 | 02:14:23,760 --> 02:14:36,690 | euros reaching for that sell side I mentioned a moment ago. Did a candle here and reference at 20 fives low one a nine to six |
| 749 | 02:14:46,380 --> 02:14:53,550 | yes is rallying against rallying dollar and falling effects payers. |
| 750 | 02:15:00,779 --> 02:15:09,569 | This is not a symmetrical market, it's a decoupling that means everything is not in agreement doesn't mean you can't trade it, I give the logic in the framework |
| 751 | 02:15:09,839 --> 02:15:15,839 | based on that maybe opening gap, what we would expect to see what would be favorable. |
| 752 | 02:15:28,020 --> 02:15:37,200 | Now, you're all spoiled with the volatility as you round by side. So that's been taken. So when you're watching price action live like this and your tape |
| 753 | 02:15:37,200 --> 02:15:49,830 | reading, you want to keep your annotations on the just lighten them up. That way, your focus on the ones that are active still. So there that's been done, |
| 754 | 02:15:49,920 --> 02:16:07,890 | and this would be remaining. So now think about what I outlined. When we were trading in the 90s, trading s&p, your daily range was extremely small. Like, |
| 755 | 02:16:08,070 --> 02:16:17,010 | that's this, this is what that range was like this day here. And it would blow the socks off of you all today, because a day like this is probably nerve |
| 756 | 02:16:17,010 --> 02:16:27,330 | wracking. Because you want to see these big runs and big extrapolations of upside and downside and a lot of whipsawing around and you're all spoiled with |
| 757 | 02:16:27,330 --> 02:16:38,640 | that level of volatility. When I started, the volatility was very small and contracted. So I'm not afraid of these days, I just choose to wait for what I |
| 758 | 02:16:38,640 --> 02:16:47,670 | know that the market is likely to create a larger magnitude of a move. And I know what I'm looking for. So I know I can be patient and wait for it. Where you |
| 759 | 02:16:49,020 --> 02:16:59,310 | if you're new, and you don't know what you're looking for, and you fall victim to yourself, you get impulsive, you don't you don't know how to wait, you think |
| 760 | 02:16:59,310 --> 02:17:07,590 | every day is going to be a big day. So you go in there and you plunge doing something you shouldn't do. But not realizing you shouldn't do it, maybe because |
| 761 | 02:17:07,890 --> 02:17:18,840 | you're too too new. But we're back at this. This is the current present new week opening gap. Again, that shaded area. Okay. So that we were distinguishing the |
| 762 | 02:17:18,840 --> 02:17:26,430 | difference between that one which I don't care for I don't have any respect for this is the one I was referring to here. And let me take you back into what I |
| 763 | 02:17:26,430 --> 02:17:35,910 | was saying when we were right here. I want to see it come back a little bit. They can go down in this range, we don't want to see it go down below that 4137 |
| 764 | 02:17:35,910 --> 02:17:46,770 | level. So there's a limit. Okay, I want to see price go down below this low. But I do not want to see it go down to this low and lower, it can go that low. But |
| 765 | 02:17:46,770 --> 02:17:58,320 | it's better if it doesn't. Why did I say that? I said that if it stays open partial here, it would act as a breakaway gap, allowing for even against a |
| 766 | 02:17:58,320 --> 02:18:10,620 | higher running dollar. Even against lower moves in Eurodollar and cable, ICT and not a forest here, it doesn't matter, we're measuring risk on risk off. The |
| 767 | 02:18:10,620 --> 02:18:21,330 | movement in here, below that low inside of this area here. So what I was really framing was what the fair value got limited and framed on the basis of the new |
| 768 | 02:18:21,330 --> 02:18:33,210 | weak opening gap low of 4137. And this low right here. See that. Now, if you don't have my new weak opening gap concept, if you're not interested in if |
| 769 | 02:18:33,210 --> 02:18:40,170 | you're not looking for if you don't have it on your chart, if you're not aware of it, you won't have this context, you'll just see |
| 770 | 02:18:46,470 --> 02:18:54,510 | that imbalance and you might look at this opening on this candle here and draw it out and think okay, if it touches there, I'll buy that as an order block. |
| 771 | 02:18:55,770 --> 02:19:08,040 | When in reality what you should be seeing is it can trade down there but we are waiting for something to unfold that leaves a portion of this entire range open |
| 772 | 02:19:08,190 --> 02:19:15,840 | but framed on what basis this new week opening got low. And what else is existing. |
| 773 | 02:19:17,460 --> 02:19:20,970 | We have wick so watch what happens. |
| 774 | 02:19:26,700 --> 02:19:38,700 | 4138 Even the low on this candle comes in at 4137 and three quarters that means to get that book of 4138 It's got to go one tick below it. The difference |
| 775 | 02:19:38,700 --> 02:19:54,720 | between the bid and the ask the reaction off that wick and here's your fair value got using the context of the new week opening gap low which is this here. |
| 776 | 02:19:54,810 --> 02:20:05,280 | Okay. We're cheating down false just sorted by one tick contract The question of the week here, leaving this portion open x as what breakaway gap fueling it to |
| 777 | 02:20:05,280 --> 02:20:16,410 | run to buyside. What's the context? Context is we are in a time of day where the algorithm changes, its delivery, what is it going to do? It's going to move on |
| 778 | 02:20:16,410 --> 02:20:25,680 | traders that have open positions that have made money in the morning, where's their stops, boom. If there was no algorithm, these things would not happen. |
| 779 | 02:20:25,980 --> 02:20:36,780 | They wouldn't happen, just like I outlined it, they wouldn't perform this way. They wouldn't be this way, they wouldn't march to the step that I gave it. Don't |
| 780 | 02:20:36,780 --> 02:20:47,970 | listen, these people that say there is no algorithm, because they're marketing something else that they're trying to make money off of, which is nonsense. Now, |
| 781 | 02:20:48,000 --> 02:20:56,640 | let's just play devil's advocate for a moment, and say for a moment that the dollar wasn't rallying at the time. Okay, I'll show you what I mean by that. |
| 782 | 02:20:56,640 --> 02:21:07,200 | This is this is the dollar right now. So we've been seeing all of this. So I called this move on the ES, it's not significant price move. But that move was |
| 783 | 02:21:07,200 --> 02:21:16,170 | what the move were in the 90s. Like in the 80s, and 90s. That was a move, like that was a move that you could be proud of. You wouldn't be happy if you were |
| 784 | 02:21:16,170 --> 02:21:27,990 | trading in those low volatility conditions. Let's get back to es real quick. Alright, so from here to here, that was a trade idea that would have been like, |
| 785 | 02:21:28,290 --> 02:21:40,770 | that's a good day, back in the 90s, and mid 80s. and such, that is it like that's, that's a run that you would have been proud of. But you're not in love |
| 786 | 02:21:40,770 --> 02:21:50,400 | with those types of moves. Now, because you have seen 40, handle runs, Hunter handle runs 200 handle runs all in the same trading session, sometimes not day |
| 787 | 02:21:50,640 --> 02:22:02,430 | session, divided by the lunch hour. So it's not a matter of looking for a fair value guy, or an hour block or breaker, you have to understand that there are |
| 788 | 02:22:02,430 --> 02:22:12,450 | certain times of the day. Because it is time and price, the first important factor is time. And if you don't know what time it is in relationship to what |
| 789 | 02:22:12,450 --> 02:22:24,990 | the algorithms do, the relationship between smart money that uses an algorithm to get in sync with the algorithm that is the price engine, that the mechanism |
| 790 | 02:22:24,990 --> 02:22:34,590 | that causes the markets to run higher or lower. For liquidity, it's not the buying and selling pressure, it's going to go to these levels, regardless of how |
| 791 | 02:22:34,590 --> 02:22:44,520 | many people are buying it or selling it. There's lots of people that are always tossing market orders in here. And all you got to do is control where it's |
| 792 | 02:22:44,520 --> 02:22:53,490 | going. Somebody's going to book the price. There's always market orders coming in. Not everybody's trading with a limit order. Not everybody's trading with a |
| 793 | 02:22:53,490 --> 02:23:04,740 | stop order. market orders are coming in all the time. And they only need one contract the book price. So your idea about volume is flawed. You have to know |
| 794 | 02:23:04,740 --> 02:23:17,640 | what they're doing, why they're doing it, where they're taking price. And for what reason? And when is it expected? time when I'm teaching you, I'm teaching |
| 795 | 02:23:17,640 --> 02:23:29,220 | you how to anticipate certain events by time. So I'm not worried about missing moves. My students are not worried about missing moves. Why? Why are they so |
| 796 | 02:23:29,220 --> 02:23:36,630 | confident when they're being interviewed by the funded account to other companies that pay them out? That's the common denominator all saying my |
| 797 | 02:23:36,630 --> 02:23:46,170 | students that are being profitable in those funded account companies are the most confident. They don't sound like someone who just got lucky. That's coming |
| 798 | 02:23:46,170 --> 02:23:54,630 | from their own words, their own interviews, they're talking and saying those things. That's not me, that's them. Because they've done the work, they've done |
| 799 | 02:23:54,630 --> 02:24:05,580 | these things. And they have seen the evidence that these things repeat by time first. So we can anticipate when the next type of setups gonna form. So in the |
| 800 | 02:24:05,580 --> 02:24:19,080 | next five or so minutes, I'm going to close this video out with these talking points that way you can get come away from this today with the right mindset. We |
| 801 | 02:24:19,080 --> 02:24:27,840 | are not falling victim to being surprised by price action. We're not ever looking at price and saying oh my goodness, where did that come from? Why did |
| 802 | 02:24:27,840 --> 02:24:40,980 | this happen? But you you've never heard me say that. I'm never going to say that. I'm not. I'm not. I'm not surprised. Everything that I'm teaching you is |
| 803 | 02:24:40,980 --> 02:24:54,540 | scripted. Everything that you see in price is scripted. It's already predetermined. You're so busy worrying about your indicators and entry models to |
| 804 | 02:24:54,540 --> 02:25:05,280 | pay attention to the fact that these things are repeating every single day and every single week. unless you look for them, you won't ever identify them. It'll |
| 805 | 02:25:05,280 --> 02:25:14,850 | never happen, you'll never pay attention to it because the magician's got you over here with a sleight of hand, you're watching this. And when the real work |
| 806 | 02:25:14,850 --> 02:25:20,370 | is done in the other, they got you looking at indicators, they got you arguing about what methods better. |
| 807 | 02:25:21,960 --> 02:25:23,940 | I don't have a method, I'm the market. |
| 808 | 02:25:26,190 --> 02:25:38,430 | I'm Mister time and price. Okay, I missed your precision. I'm not I'm not a method. So when these things are observed and studied, you're not surprised when |
| 809 | 02:25:38,430 --> 02:25:47,820 | you see things like the boss on liquidity that's been delivered here, you're not surprised by the fluctuations to a very specific level in a manner that is |
| 810 | 02:25:47,820 --> 02:25:57,960 | predetermined. It's predictable. That's the thing that most people don't understand. That's the power that you're looking for. But you can't identify it. |
| 811 | 02:25:58,170 --> 02:26:06,510 | You don't even know that's available. So therefore, you don't pursue it. And then you come into contact with me and then you're seeing these types of things |
| 812 | 02:26:06,510 --> 02:26:17,400 | here. And they're not big runs. They're not big price runs. I understand that. But the range in itself hasn't been much at all anyway. But here's your buyside |
| 813 | 02:26:17,400 --> 02:26:18,720 | liquidity as well here. |
| 814 | 02:26:21,690 --> 02:26:22,650 | So that one's done |
| 815 | 02:26:27,300 --> 02:26:29,610 | in the people that left early |
| 816 | 02:26:31,560 --> 02:26:36,300 | thinking getting weren't getting anything from it today, they have no idea what they're missing |
| 817 | 02:26:45,930 --> 02:27:02,280 | you can schedule your trade setups, like the TV God. I know every single day, every single trading day that has a full trading session. Here you go, there you |
| 818 | 02:27:02,280 --> 02:27:17,820 | go. One more time. This must be random isn't it must be random ICT must be random stuff this keeps happening all the time. Can't find out your books. But |
| 819 | 02:27:17,820 --> 02:27:29,910 | you can schedule all of this stuff. So if you can schedule things like 1150 to 1210 There's your lunch macro. I didn't just make that up to make this fit |
| 820 | 02:27:29,910 --> 02:27:42,930 | today. Go back and listen to my other teachings. Listen to my twitter spaces. As much as I hate saying that now. A lot of information on those things even though |
| 821 | 02:27:42,930 --> 02:28:08,010 | they're laced with a lot of unfortunately bad language sometimes. Here is 1150. Right there, and 1110 I'm sorry, I'm sorry 1210 Right there in between those two |
| 822 | 02:28:08,610 --> 02:28:21,810 | times okay. There will be a price run that runs the liquidity that goes against the daily range. And what am I saying there? I'm stating that the price will run |
| 823 | 02:28:21,810 --> 02:28:34,260 | to the liquidity that will be used for protection purposes on what was utilized in delivery of the morning session. In layman's terms, what has happened in the |
| 824 | 02:28:34,260 --> 02:28:49,230 | market since the morning 930 drop. So shorts have been profitable at 1150 to 1210 starts in a macro. Okay, a macro is a shortlist of directions that the |
| 825 | 02:28:49,230 --> 02:28:57,630 | algorithm itself will start operating under. I am not formfitting this, this is not cherry picked. I've literally walked you through exactly what you see in |
| 826 | 02:28:57,630 --> 02:29:06,840 | your chart right now. Based on the time it's going to form. I didn't create these times because it's happened to work today. These are the very times that |
| 827 | 02:29:06,840 --> 02:29:16,470 | my students and the people that have been learning from me publicly for free. These things are in my teachings. It runs for the liquidity that was used for |
| 828 | 02:29:16,470 --> 02:29:27,960 | protection from the morning session. That's what the lunch algorithm does. It runs on stops. It offers liquidity to the marketplace. Well I told you where the |
| 829 | 02:29:27,960 --> 02:29:36,630 | buy side was here and I told you it was over here and we want to see what you want to see animation we want to see the market move with speed and distance. If |
| 830 | 02:29:36,630 --> 02:29:54,090 | it were to do that, we could see a trade up into this area right over here. And at 1210 There's your candle at 12. Does anybody know looking at a girl at 1212 |
| 831 | 02:29:55,650 --> 02:30:06,420 | it delivers it. This candle starts it is Small little drop down lead this portion open as a breakaway gap, run up into that level there. Now, the question |
| 832 | 02:30:06,420 --> 02:30:23,340 | is, here's the question you need to ask yourself, can you see 10 handles? In that? No. So for you as a new developing student, could you take that trait? No. |
| 833 | 02:30:24,030 --> 02:30:32,970 | If you've been immersed in the things I'm teaching, you've been doing it for a while, and you're a bit more nimble. Could you take that trait? Yes. Who's going |
| 834 | 02:30:32,970 --> 02:30:43,980 | to tell you when you can do that you and your experience and when you're not emotionally attached to the outcome? Think pugs think. If there wasn't an |
| 835 | 02:30:43,980 --> 02:30:56,580 | algorithm, this stuff couldn't be called beforehand. It wouldn't happen like this. Look how price delivered right to this candles. Love what's look right up |
| 836 | 02:30:56,580 --> 02:31:09,060 | here. Okay, look up here in upper left hand corner, that value. Look at the low of that candle right there. What is the low 4145 and a quarter? Okay, 41 45.25. |
| 837 | 02:31:09,690 --> 02:31:21,930 | What's the high of the candle here? We're gonna look at this value right there. Okay. The value of that candle is 4145 and a quarter, you cannot improve on |
| 838 | 02:31:21,930 --> 02:31:40,440 | perfection. Now, every single time I come out here on a live session, I do these things every single time. Now, when I first learned how to do these setups and |
| 839 | 02:31:41,070 --> 02:31:56,880 | such, I didn't have the confidence. I didn't have the the John Wayne. New computer composure? I know. I know. I know that I know. It was uncomfortable |
| 840 | 02:31:57,000 --> 02:32:06,210 | waiting for the results. To sit through it? Will it really do it? Will it really do it? In I had to forge patience. It didn't happen overnight. It's not going to |
| 841 | 02:32:06,210 --> 02:32:15,480 | happen overnight for you. By watching me do this. You get the splash over the bubbly feeling of well that did pan out. And some of you're regretting not |
| 842 | 02:32:15,480 --> 02:32:26,460 | having bought it. If you feel that you're not ready. If you watch this, you respected the idea that we watched this morning and how we transition to the |
| 843 | 02:32:26,460 --> 02:32:35,100 | lunch hour and the macro outlined and everything panned out like we were looking for wonderful. And you're not emotionally attached to what took place and you're |
| 844 | 02:32:35,100 --> 02:32:44,760 | not terribly excited and you're not turned off by anything. You just are blessed to have been here and you observe and you picked up more insight. That's the |
| 845 | 02:32:44,760 --> 02:32:55,230 | right mindset. If you are thinking to yourself, Okay, what's the next move? You're impulsive? You're gonna have to fix that. Every single time I'm on |
| 846 | 02:32:55,230 --> 02:33:09,600 | Twitter or if I do something you live in, I say it and it pans out. Invariably, there are students or viewers else. Okay, what's the next move? sidelines lunch, |
| 847 | 02:33:10,890 --> 02:33:19,350 | the workout the gym, the walk, the walk my dogs, the need to take a nap before two o'clock new there's, there's slides to think that's what's next. Just |
| 848 | 02:33:19,350 --> 02:33:29,100 | because the trade closes their idea comes to fruition doesn't mean okay, immediately go on to something else. Let's go on and do something else now. And |
| 849 | 02:33:29,100 --> 02:33:38,220 | I think that happens for people for one or two reasons. One, they didn't want to take the next one, I say because he didn't do it on the last one. And they |
| 850 | 02:33:38,220 --> 02:33:47,940 | regret it. When you shouldn't be wanting to take the trade that I talked about you should be observing is the things I'm talking about panning out, does it pan |
| 851 | 02:33:47,940 --> 02:33:55,950 | out. Because if it doesn't pan out, I don't know what I'm talking about. If I don't know what I'm talking about, and if I can't articulate it real time live |
| 852 | 02:33:55,950 --> 02:34:06,720 | like this on the smallest timeframes. lowest latency I can create with this. YouTube is probably not true. I think I had to own the middle one into it at the |
| 853 | 02:34:06,720 --> 02:34:15,390 | lowest latency is it's the setting between the highest one they do normal latency, then it's low, and lowest or something to that effect. I haven't knew. |
| 854 | 02:34:15,930 --> 02:34:23,340 | Because the last time I did a live stream, it was telling me how to air and I was afraid it was gonna cause problems. So I just moved it up there. It's not |
| 855 | 02:34:23,340 --> 02:34:31,740 | changing any of this. Like I can't, once I talk. Like I can't, I can't call that back. Whatever I say it's already starting to go wherever it's gonna go to |
| 856 | 02:34:31,740 --> 02:34:40,290 | wherever you are in the world. I can't take it away from you making it to your computer or YouTube servers. Once it's spoken. It's out there and you're gonna |
| 857 | 02:34:40,290 --> 02:34:54,150 | get it. There's no better way of communicating a non cherry picked condition but live explaining it. I don't need to push a button in front of you. I don't need |
| 858 | 02:34:54,150 --> 02:35:05,940 | to do that. The folks that say I do, you're not paying attention. You just simply want to copy me. And I don't want you to do that. I don't want you to |
| 859 | 02:35:05,940 --> 02:35:13,650 | feel that you have to do that. If I don't know what I'm talking about, it will be apparent and obvious. And I wish it would have been apparent and obvious by |
| 860 | 02:35:13,650 --> 02:35:24,030 | now. But just because we can see these types of moves doesn't mean that it's probably the best trade for you right now. Or it's a trade that you should be |
| 861 | 02:35:24,030 --> 02:35:39,870 | taking. That's, that's one of the main takeaways that we can predict price, we can do it very precisely, like scary precision, price action. And again, that |
| 862 | 02:35:39,870 --> 02:35:54,150 | wouldn't exist. If the markets are all moving by supply and demand buying and selling pressure. There's no way absolutely no way that you're going to convince |
| 863 | 02:35:54,150 --> 02:36:05,100 | me or anyone else that has a brain that random buying and selling pressure based on a myriad of different trading styles and applications. Which one is the |
| 864 | 02:36:05,100 --> 02:36:18,330 | market following today? Which logic did it use today to book that high? Which logic did it use to make that low that candle right there? What framework that |
| 865 | 02:36:18,330 --> 02:36:27,780 | it use. Did Wycoff tell you to time it was going to do that? That supplying to me that same side and tell you the time that this candle right here is going to |
| 866 | 02:36:27,780 --> 02:36:32,310 | form and do that very thing and lead to that run up into 4145 25? |
| 867 | 02:36:37,500 --> 02:36:52,590 | It's not anywhere else. You're in the right place. You're in good hands. I'm not charging you anything. I love doing this. I want to see you succeed. I've given |
| 868 | 02:36:52,590 --> 02:37:03,360 | you more time than I allotted for today. Because I know, if I sat here long enough, I would get that 1150 macro. I'm supposed to stay here till 12. My |
| 869 | 02:37:03,360 --> 02:37:15,240 | students knew exactly where we were going with that. But you as a new viewer, or a new student, you have no idea you hadn't you had no idea what to expect. But |
| 870 | 02:37:15,240 --> 02:37:25,170 | these things are predictable. So if we can time, a framework that exists in the morning, let's say it doesn't materialize. Like I didn't have a silver bullet |
| 871 | 02:37:25,170 --> 02:37:35,070 | setup this one. No problem. Does that mean go out there and just go roll the dice and do something outside of your model? No. You wait, for what Michael? |
| 872 | 02:37:35,070 --> 02:37:46,830 | What do we what are we waiting for? What am I looking for time. So if I can't find the setup, I'd like to see between 10 o'clock and five o'clock if I'm |
| 873 | 02:37:46,830 --> 02:37:58,740 | choosing the trade with that silver bullet model. And maybe formed in a market that I wasn't watching? Am I gonna get revenge on the marketplace for doing it |
| 874 | 02:37:58,770 --> 02:38:14,370 | somewhere else and not allowing my market of choice the form? No, I Wait, what am I waiting for 1150 to 1210. In between that 20 minute window, there will be a |
| 875 | 02:38:14,370 --> 02:38:24,900 | price run that begins it doesn't mean it completes in that 20 minute period. It just means it begins. That macro starts running algorithmically. And it will run |
| 876 | 02:38:24,900 --> 02:38:36,870 | to liquidity. And it's not random. Look at the chart folks. Look at it. Look at your chart. That's real time. Yours painted just like mine. And I'm not in the |
| 877 | 02:38:36,870 --> 02:38:50,100 | room making your candlesticks, you would think I was everything can be predicted. It can be timed, the market can be timed, the market is running on |
| 878 | 02:38:50,100 --> 02:39:06,570 | time. Everything about the market is time based. It's time driven. Everything about this day, in every day is predetermined. There are times when manual |
| 879 | 02:39:06,570 --> 02:39:18,570 | intervention comes in. And it completely disrupts everything. And I will be wrong on that day. As long as there's no manual intervention, I'm going to be |
| 880 | 02:39:18,570 --> 02:39:29,820 | right. I say that because I'm the author of these concepts. But that does not mean or invite you to think I want to think like in terms of right or wrong. But |
| 881 | 02:39:29,820 --> 02:39:40,500 | I know when unlikely to be ran over by manual intervention, most times but I'm still subject to getting railroaded by any old black swan event that anybody |
| 882 | 02:39:40,500 --> 02:39:50,700 | else would be you know, railroaded by to. That's the inherent risk. Everybody has that same risk. We don't know if they're going to drop bombs anywhere and |
| 883 | 02:39:50,700 --> 02:39:59,490 | cause all kinds of geopolitical things. upheavals. We don't know. You don't know that. I don't know that. I'm expecting things like that to occur. We're going |
| 884 | 02:39:59,490 --> 02:40:12,060 | into some really in turbulent times, but barring those events, price is absolutely predictable. I explained to you how that low down here was |
| 885 | 02:40:12,090 --> 02:40:19,800 | problematic in reaching to the objective down here. You can't have, you can't find a chat chapter in books or courses to talk about that. You have to have |
| 886 | 02:40:19,800 --> 02:40:32,640 | somebody that knows how to do it, navigate in real time and explain it to you. Then we transitioned into the lunch hour. And I outlined exactly how that candle |
| 887 | 02:40:32,640 --> 02:40:40,650 | here formed, leaving that portion down here. And how we would run for the buy side here, run for the buy side here. And if we got the speed and distance and |
| 888 | 02:40:40,710 --> 02:40:55,830 | reach, like we saw here, it would go up into that. Very, very get right there, and that candles low. And it happens just to be the very tick. That price forms |
| 889 | 02:40:55,860 --> 02:41:12,690 | on that candle right there. Is that random? Is that lucky? None of my students that had been with me ever see this as luck. They're bored by it. They're not |
| 890 | 02:41:12,720 --> 02:41:17,910 | they're not surprised. I'm not running around with a grin on their face every time I'm doing a wash. I mean, they might be the day because there's because |
| 891 | 02:41:17,910 --> 02:41:28,290 | they know that you're listening and you're new. And they know you're, you're probably thinking how on earth could this be? Because we know what we're doing. |
| 892 | 02:41:29,250 --> 02:41:36,690 | We know we're looking for, we're not taking by surprise. We're not following flawed logic. We're not looking at retail indicators. The only thing that's on |
| 893 | 02:41:36,690 --> 02:41:49,110 | my chart is a reference point that the algorithm itself will refer to in why the market will respond accordingly. The markets not going to do something outside |
| 894 | 02:41:49,110 --> 02:41:59,310 | the script is not going to be driven by buying and selling pressure. It's not it doesn't work that way. It does not work that way, folks, I don't care who told |
| 895 | 02:41:59,310 --> 02:42:05,850 | you otherwise, I don't care if you used to be at a trading desk, record yourself a market maker. That's not how this rolls buddy. |
| 896 | 02:42:11,640 --> 02:42:23,580 | I never seen a market maker come out here and talk where the price is gonna go. And it delivers it to the tick. You're not beating the market maker ever. It |
| 897 | 02:42:23,580 --> 02:42:36,600 | never happens. Because you can't control price. They do. If you're a dealer, and you call yourself a market maker, you're not a market maker. You've mislabeled |
| 898 | 02:42:36,600 --> 02:42:48,510 | yourself, and they gave you a title that's overreaching. A market maker controls and delivers price. Whether you want to subscribe to the fact that they exist or |
| 899 | 02:42:48,510 --> 02:42:51,060 | don't exist, explain how I'm this precise. |
| 900 | 02:42:52,410 --> 02:42:53,580 | Because that's who's talking to you. |
| 901 | 02:42:55,710 --> 02:43:05,700 | So with that when my friends, there's going to be it. I don't know. I was looking at the calendar, I talked to my wife about the rest of the week. And |
| 902 | 02:43:05,700 --> 02:43:15,360 | she's being typical woman. She wants to be able to control the last minute, I'm going to do this today, and you're going with me. So I don't know where we are |
| 903 | 02:43:15,360 --> 02:43:23,040 | in terms of the rest of the week. So my second live stream for this week, I don't know exactly where it will be. I would like to do it tomorrow afternoon |
| 904 | 02:43:23,040 --> 02:43:31,230 | session. But I have to wait and see if my wife and my family will support that and that we haven't get it done. And then I'll have Thursday and Friday to do |
| 905 | 02:43:31,230 --> 02:43:42,000 | what I want to do. So if it's my choice, and if I can get it will be tomorrow afternoon for the pm session, if it doesn't work out like that, and I don't know |
| 906 | 02:43:42,000 --> 02:43:53,280 | if it'll be Thursday or Friday. So there we aren't, that wasn't much of a range, admittedly. But you know, I believe that this was a very fruitful live stream, I |
| 907 | 02:43:53,280 --> 02:44:01,800 | believe it was, I would have paid money for this, to be honest with you like this is information that I would have loved seeing be shared live and watch it |
| 908 | 02:44:01,800 --> 02:44:10,530 | pan out. It's the stuff you can't find in books. And that's what I'm trying to deliver to you this year. Trying to show you that these concepts that I |
| 909 | 02:44:10,620 --> 02:44:19,650 | authored, I made these, what they are you know them because I've spoken them, put them out there. And it sounds arrogant and sounds like me and chest beating |
| 910 | 02:44:19,650 --> 02:44:31,710 | and self love. It's not. I'm offended when people pretend to know these things. They don't. You have no idea what you're talking about. And to presume that you |
| 911 | 02:44:31,710 --> 02:44:42,450 | do and pretend that you do and monetize. No, you shouldn't do that. Signals. If you can trade and you use some of the stuff. I have any issues with that. You |
| 912 | 02:44:42,450 --> 02:44:49,350 | did that on your own steam. But don't try to teach my stuff because you don't know what you're doing. And with that, have yourself a very, very pleasant day. |
| 913 | 02:44:49,830 --> 02:44:56,460 | And I will touch base with you again tomorrow on Twitter, one way or the other. Until I talk to you next time. Be safe |