ICT YT - 2023-03-30 - Live Tape Reading - AM Session - March 30 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-04-03 12:03
Outline
00:34 - What we’re seeing today.<D->
02:43 - Intraday Volatility:.
07:53 - What is the consideration for the price to close in that gap?
11:35 - The market is one of those markets where you have to know where it’s going and get into something that would otherwise be unconventional.
16:10 - The opposite end of the range -.
22:43 - What happens if you don’t listen? -.
28:48 - I'm making this harder than it needs to be -.
34:37 - Being wrong in a trade doesn’t hurt your ego.
37:07 - Bearish Breakers.
42:53 - Why you need to trust the market structure -.
48:15 - How do you know when the hold on to a stock is going to be broken?
54:30 - The silver bullet is a time-specific setup that forms between 10 o’clock and 11 o’clock.
01:01:09 - What to do if you don’t have a whole lot of time.
01:07:39 - People who don’t want to listen.
01:14:44 - What sets the tone for the market?
01:17:22 - Where does the new week opening gap exist in the market?
01:23:22 - People who know what they’re doing and how to navigate the market are going to do well.
01:28:24 - When in doubt, stay out -.
01:35:04 - Live streaming is not respecting anything, it’s chopping around sideways.
01:41:08 - When it’s going to be a good day -.
01:46:02 - Making money by finding trades -.
01:53:14 - Is the order flow bullish or bearish? -.
Transcript
| 1 | 00:00:34,290 --> 00:00:39,510 | ICT: Alright let's try this once more because guys can see me hear me |
| 2 | 00:00:41,340 --> 00:00:42,900 | I appreciate you let me know through Twitter |
| 3 | 00:00:45,660 --> 00:00:47,790 | for my end it looks like you should be able to see in here my |
| 4 | 00:00:47,790 --> 00:00:51,390 | chart will see my chart and hear me rather |
| 5 | 00:01:07,350 --> 00:01:08,250 | the volume okay |
| 6 | 00:01:16,740 --> 00:01:21,540 | just wait for confirmation on audio everything's as loud as I can make it |
| 7 | 00:01:25,320 --> 00:01:26,340 | thank you so much. |
| 8 | 00:01:27,180 --> 00:01:42,600 | So let's go back over to you short here I apologize I'm not sure why OBS was not connecting it was give me a bit of a fit this morning |
| 9 | 00:01:46,200 --> 00:02:01,560 | alright, so we have a old new week opening gap at that for eight I'm sorry boy 08 6.75 which is also the march 6 opening price which were the bearish order |
| 10 | 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:07,200 | block opening price that's what we're seeing here. So that's what these levels are |
| 11 | 00:02:18,690 --> 00:02:31,680 | Dollar Index has almost reached 102 level on the downside so watching that this morning |
| 12 | 00:02:39,780 --> 00:02:42,360 | very very ugly morning so far. |
| 13 | 00:02:43,980 --> 00:02:45,120 | pointed to your attention to |
| 14 | 00:02:48,630 --> 00:02:59,550 | 4079 and a quarter this morning on Twitter for about five handle run. Then mentioned 4083 which is consequent encroachment of a discount wick on March |
| 15 | 00:02:59,550 --> 00:03:01,140 | 6 2023. |
| 16 | 00:03:02,190 --> 00:03:03,120 | And the other levels |
| 17 | 00:03:04,980 --> 00:03:06,060 | we have here in the chart |
| 18 | 00:03:09,060 --> 00:03:15,690 | admittedly we have had a pretty impressive run since Tuesday. All one directional |
| 19 | 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:24,900 | not trying to pick the top in here. So we're gonna be treating the |
| 20 | 00:03:26,700 --> 00:03:29,250 | intraday volatility with our tape reading today. |
| 21 | 00:03:31,920 --> 00:03:45,570 | Specifically reserving our attention to the 10 o'clock hour. So let's have fun find their five handle running that I apologize if I don't sound so eager to be |
| 22 | 00:03:45,570 --> 00:03:58,440 | here. I really don't want to be here. I have migraine I've been dealing with since yesterday afternoon. I appreciate your your suggested remedies, but I've |
| 23 | 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:01,230 | tried all that stuff is it sometimes happens |
| 24 | 00:04:06,750 --> 00:04:18,090 | Alright, so we are looking at a fair value gap here in the form of bias out of balance. Also in efficiency, we traded down into that 905 Hit the bearish order |
| 25 | 00:04:18,090 --> 00:04:28,290 | block on March 6, the opening price. Look at your daily chart, you'll see that opening price. It's also an old newly opened and GAP low. I'd like to see it try |
| 26 | 00:04:28,290 --> 00:04:41,610 | to move up into that more. If we get above 4089 in the quarter. I like one Oh, I'm sorry. 4104 is a continuation of the upside if we reject any possible |
| 27 | 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:55,080 | correction of anytime 41 04 I like that upside continuing. I'm not suggesting that's the case here yet and I'm waiting more specifically for the 10 o'clock |
| 28 | 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:56,610 | hour to the begin |
| 29 | 00:04:58,199 --> 00:05:01,739 | giving up the first 30 minutes of Trading in the opening range |
| 30 | 00:05:34,500 --> 00:05:35,580 | looking at the |
| 31 | 00:05:38,100 --> 00:05:53,370 | the lows in here should be correct think sellside 70 240 72 on the owners mapping out the morning right now calling out a level that's going to absolutely |
| 32 | 00:05:53,370 --> 00:06:03,480 | be hit I'm just giving you my internal dialogue upside above the new week opening gap Hi here that's an old new we're gonna get this not presently by the |
| 33 | 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:03,690 | way |
| 34 | 00:06:09,089 --> 00:06:11,939 | let's take a look at where we opened up on DVD |
| 35 | 00:06:16,500 --> 00:06:16,860 | got |
| 36 | 00:06:21,990 --> 00:06:23,220 | cancer reopened |
| 37 | 00:06:49,199 --> 00:06:52,379 | you're asking how I do the annotation like that that's how I do it |
| 38 | 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:00,870 | and toggle the retreating |
| 39 | 00:07:07,259 --> 00:07:07,919 | telling |
| 40 | 00:07:13,139 --> 00:07:14,009 | closing price |
| 41 | 00:07:19,170 --> 00:07:29,310 | I wonder what that is this is an afternoon fighting over Olga is it opening range |
| 42 | 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:47,550 | Okay, so we have |
| 43 | 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:51,060 | a lot of premium in here. |
| 44 | 00:07:53,009 --> 00:07:57,959 | So even if we went down 1/3 or one quarter of the range, that would be |
| 45 | 00:08:04,410 --> 00:08:16,980 | something to be mindful of. So one of the things you want to do is you want to have your range like this defined will your favor get 25% 50% 75% of the range. |
| 46 | 00:08:18,930 --> 00:08:21,090 | I'm not suggesting we're gonna go all the way down here but |
| 47 | 00:08:24,329 --> 00:08:27,149 | we'll see what we get in the in the 10 o'clock hour |
| 48 | 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:48,870 | events electronic trading hours. So our range will be now on the chart. The opening range high range low keeps the chart really clean and allows us to take |
| 49 | 00:08:48,870 --> 00:09:02,520 | a look at what may be the consideration for the pricing to close in that gap sellside resting all of these relatively equal lows if it were to go for that |
| 50 | 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:11,700 | today. And get closure would be something to be mindful of too. And that's assuming a whole lot folks I'm not suggesting that's in the cards at all yet. |
| 51 | 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:23,130 | Like I said I'm submitting myself for the first half an hour of trading today. Waiting for more information and being completely willing to miss the move |
| 52 | 00:09:30,030 --> 00:09:30,930 | I have this |
| 53 | 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:48,120 | this range here I want to see if that becomes an inversion for Vega. So it will be offered support here trade up to new opening gap low and march 6 opening |
| 54 | 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:49,770 | price which is bearish order block. |
| 55 | 00:09:51,210 --> 00:10:01,380 | We had a nice reaction so far. So the levels we're watching now is the opening price that was this morning, which is great. You're on this candle. So we're |
| 56 | 00:10:01,380 --> 00:10:04,050 | watching a sensitivity to keep price lower. |
| 57 | 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:09,180 | So far, there's no gap in this movement lower. And |
| 58 | 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:12,270 | if we get below this fair value gap |
| 59 | 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:21,570 | will act as resistance and breaker |
| 60 | 00:10:30,570 --> 00:10:31,410 | all one sided |
| 61 | 00:10:31,410 --> 00:10:46,620 | since Tuesday, only small consolidation was in the evening hours last night, my local time between six and 11. And then it started extrapolating to the upside. |
| 62 | 00:11:18,180 --> 00:11:24,450 | Apart from the levels I was mentioning yesterday if you're experiencing some |
| 63 | 00:11:25,950 --> 00:11:36,570 | difficult difficulty in reading, price action or submitting to what's available in price action is very difficult market. It's one of those markets where you |
| 64 | 00:11:36,570 --> 00:11:49,290 | have to know where it's going higher timeframe and get into something that would otherwise be unconventional and just hold it or sit on your hands. And it's very |
| 65 | 00:11:49,290 --> 00:11:59,970 | hard for a new trader or student or someone that's trying to make their ends meet they have to do with their live trading and such. It's hard to have that |
| 66 | 00:12:02,550 --> 00:12:17,670 | impulse quench it's hard to sit still. In other words, to go in here start looking for things. And it's becoming very difficult with all the things that's |
| 67 | 00:12:17,670 --> 00:12:33,810 | going on all the bank stuff and geopolitical stuff D dollar rising with somebody talked about last year on Twitter spaces. So I'm looking at all of my other |
| 68 | 00:12:33,810 --> 00:12:42,540 | charts. So to keep myself from getting disoriented, because I know every time I've messed around with this obs and trying to toggle sometimes I go back to a |
| 69 | 00:12:42,540 --> 00:12:50,880 | chart and I lose audio and I don't want I don't have the patience today to have done something like that. So I want to stay on this chart and I'll just refer to |
| 70 | 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:54,750 | things I'm seeing among other monitors |
| 71 | 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:12,090 | admittedly, if I were being honest entirely with you, I would tell you that I'd like to see the dollar index go a little bit lower and allow that new week |
| 72 | 00:13:12,090 --> 00:13:16,830 | opening gap high to be traded to 4089 and a quarter for ETS. |
| 73 | 00:13:18,330 --> 00:13:19,560 | That's what I'd prefer to see. |
| 74 | 00:13:21,750 --> 00:13:26,610 | Not that it can't turn around and correct here. It's Thursday |
| 75 | 00:13:38,850 --> 00:13:47,550 | we've had a one sided range since Tuesday I had to double check make sure it's Thursday by the way. My head's pounding me so bad. It's hard to it's hard to |
| 76 | 00:13:47,550 --> 00:13:48,120 | focus |
| 77 | 00:13:53,880 --> 00:14:00,540 | so if you take a look at your your NASDAQ chart, pull that up and pull up a one minute chart and show |
| 78 | 00:14:01,860 --> 00:14:08,220 | essentially is from seven o'clock this morning. to I can do it here. Let me just do this |
| 79 | 00:14:13,980 --> 00:14:14,790 | okay, so here's |
| 80 | 00:14:16,050 --> 00:14:25,350 | here's this morning straight and so far only starting NASDAQ, it just keeps reaching higher, higher higher. And they'll |
| 81 | 00:14:33,330 --> 00:14:37,350 | Okay, Dallas, rather blunt ended on it ties |
| 82 | 00:14:45,150 --> 00:14:46,290 | back to Yes. |
| 83 | 00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:58,800 | And you see how we're much more jagged on the upper side, reaching for by side, on ES and I'll toggle through them one more time. Just you're paying attention |
| 84 | 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:09,180 | to the way the Heiser delivered here, respectively between the three averages. So as you've had multiple highs higher, I don't care about the higher lows. |
| 85 | 00:15:09,180 --> 00:15:17,100 | That's that's not what I'm referring to him specifically taking your attention into how we have these higher highs and then in the Dow |
| 86 | 00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:24,000 | with we don't see that and then NASDAQ |
| 87 | 00:15:29,220 --> 00:15:42,570 | similar to ES. So to me, because we're on Thursday, this is like a note for your journal. They have weak characteristics, we've been one sided, algorithmically |
| 88 | 00:15:42,570 --> 00:15:53,340 | delivered, it's all been straight up. Hardly any pullbacks, if at all, just small consolidations and going higher. So that's a very painful train to stand |
| 89 | 00:15:53,340 --> 00:16:06,450 | in front of, if you try to short that, as my son found out that that's, that's not fun to do that. And where they end up where they stop is a very hard read. |
| 90 | 00:16:07,350 --> 00:16:18,240 | So you have to demand a whole lot more from the marketplace. To offer. A I want to see reversal pattern because I don't want you to take what I'm saying here is |
| 91 | 00:16:18,450 --> 00:16:27,750 | a precursor to I'm calling the top I'm not calling the top. But I'm anticipating and I teach my students to anticipate the New York session on Thursday, |
| 92 | 00:16:27,990 --> 00:16:39,510 | generally, generally tends to create the opposite end of the range. So what we've been doing this entire week has been just powering higher, just keep |
| 93 | 00:16:39,510 --> 00:16:49,290 | digging Higher, higher high heart, it's gone to logical levels I've mentioned in my Monday analysis video on YouTube. I specifically aimed for the buy side, I |
| 94 | 00:16:49,290 --> 00:16:55,710 | did not have any sell side mentioned in the chart. Even though I had discounted raise mentioned I said this is this side of the marketplace I'm interested in |
| 95 | 00:16:55,710 --> 00:17:00,720 | going forward. So you've known since Monday evening that we're looking for upside. |
| 96 | 00:17:02,130 --> 00:17:03,750 | I mentioned on Twitter, |
| 97 | 00:17:05,220 --> 00:17:17,220 | how and I mentioned it other times and other lectures going on around about it. The the observations I've made as a mentor teaching other people how to read |
| 98 | 00:17:17,220 --> 00:17:21,000 | price action and dealing with many different personalities. |
| 99 | 00:17:23,490 --> 00:17:27,750 | I want to double check. Alright, so |
| 100 | 00:17:30,900 --> 00:17:32,490 | power has a little bit of a |
| 101 | 00:17:33,120 --> 00:17:43,290 | imbalance here at me tell you where it's at, it's going to be on your five minute chart for Dixie. It's going to be five minute chart, the X Y on trading |
| 102 | 00:17:43,290 --> 00:17:49,890 | view. And it's the Thursday 830. Candle, you want to annotate that |
| 103 | 00:17:51,030 --> 00:17:55,560 | as a very get sippy satisfied and balanced by efficiency. |
| 104 | 00:17:57,030 --> 00:17:59,190 | So that has my interest right now. |
| 105 | 00:18:01,140 --> 00:18:13,710 | If the dollar can correct into that, that would allow for yes to try to reach some measure of sell side or discount to $1. Higher today. I'm not suggesting |
| 106 | 00:18:13,710 --> 00:18:22,830 | it's there. I'm not not saying it's an entry right now. But as we stay in this little narrow range that we're in right now, as we enter the 10 o'clock hour, |
| 107 | 00:18:22,830 --> 00:18:25,050 | that's something I would anticipate that |
| 108 | 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:36,780 | right now we're just waiting more or less this waiting for the the time of day to line up with what would be better in terms of price delivery. |
| 109 | 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:52,350 | But I was mentioning, over my years of doing this and teaching, I've had a lot of interesting personalities come my way. Some of them very pleasant to work |
| 110 | 00:18:52,350 --> 00:19:01,830 | with a lot. Most of my students are just like that. But invariably, you're gonna meet people that are just cut from a different cloth. And they're just very |
| 111 | 00:19:01,830 --> 00:19:14,250 | stubborn or argumentative or contrarian by nature in every aspect. And I'm something of that. When I first started, you know, I wanted to do my own thing |
| 112 | 00:19:14,250 --> 00:19:23,730 | my own way. And everybody wants to do that. And I have a lot of respect for people that do that. But as I mentioned in discussions about what it was like |
| 113 | 00:19:23,730 --> 00:19:33,390 | when I was coming up and learning how to read these charts like this. When I first learned the certain things that were repeating that weren't really in my |
| 114 | 00:19:33,390 --> 00:19:43,830 | books, I started to share them with my uncle. And I would tell him, look at this watch. Go tomorrow, let's watch soybeans tomorrow, let's let's go in with these |
| 115 | 00:19:43,830 --> 00:19:55,230 | expectations. And he would go in there and treat it opposite. Like he would try to feed it. And we're trying to just really just take read, okay, you practice |
| 116 | 00:19:55,230 --> 00:20:04,320 | and you just I'm trying to convince him and he goes out there and does the opposite with real money. And then he has an attitude and starts to punish me. |
| 117 | 00:20:05,100 --> 00:20:13,320 | In our conversations, like I caused that to happen. When I said, you this is where I think it's gonna go and you went the opposite. Why'd you do that? Well, |
| 118 | 00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:26,310 | it's because I want to be able to do this on my own. Then, my eldest son, who I tried to talk into trading anything but crypto, he got into crypto. And he's |
| 119 | 00:20:26,310 --> 00:20:32,880 | lost over $20,000 doing the things I told him not to do. Okay, I know, there's some of you that are listening, that are crypto traders, and you've probably |
| 120 | 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:42,000 | made money. Listen, I'm not a crypto guy. I'm not a crypto professional. I don't know anything about it. Except for I wouldn't want to trade it. So I've been |
| 121 | 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:53,400 | pretty consistent with that. So he's, he's in the red 20,000 trading crypto against his dad's advice. But he wanted to do things contrary, he wanted to do |
| 122 | 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:58,950 | it his own way. And therefore, while he was making a little bit of money, but then all of a sudden, |
| 123 | 00:21:00,810 --> 00:21:09,870 | went, went against them. And he's got all kinds of issues with the Coinbase drama that went on. So long story short. |
| 124 | 00:21:12,930 --> 00:21:29,610 | My son, that is now involved in trying to learn how to do this. He is pursuing a model that he's carving out. So he's, he's very reluctant to stay to the rules. |
| 125 | 00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:40,110 | And the conversation pretty much went like this, I need to do it on my own. I need to, I need to see it on my own. If you just tell me everything. I'm not |
| 126 | 00:21:40,110 --> 00:21:49,980 | learning like that. I want to just try it my own way. And if I feel, just let me feel. And I'm struggling with that as a dad, because I don't want that I feel |
| 127 | 00:21:49,980 --> 00:21:56,070 | like the dad is walking behind him. And then if some of you were like, What is this got to do with anything if you'd like to just go up the road go by somebody |
| 128 | 00:21:56,070 --> 00:22:09,750 | else, because nothing's happening in the chart that I like, when it's there, I'll talk about it. But I feel like I'm that same dad as behind him. And he's |
| 129 | 00:22:09,750 --> 00:22:18,810 | just learning how to walk. And I'm right there making sure he doesn't fall off his head or hurt himself. And but letting him feel like he can do it on his own. |
| 130 | 00:22:19,500 --> 00:22:30,570 | This is something different though. This is, this is my entire life. I know what I'm doing with this. I know how to teach it. And the stubbornness in him, which |
| 131 | 00:22:30,570 --> 00:22:46,350 | comes from me, admittedly, I'm not oblivious to that. But trying to do something just that confirm what I've told him would happen. If he just didn't listen. For |
| 132 | 00:22:46,350 --> 00:22:57,570 | instance, you were looking for higher prices. He wants to short, he wants to do what he has to do what he has to, he has to push that button doing that. And |
| 133 | 00:22:58,380 --> 00:23:12,540 | it's very frustrating because I don't want to don't want to steer him into a argument of relationship overcharged like my uncle. It's very frustrating for me |
| 134 | 00:23:12,540 --> 00:23:23,430 | because I don't want him going through what is available to everybody else when you don't listen, which is temporary failure and setback. So when you're |
| 135 | 00:23:23,430 --> 00:23:30,660 | shorting something when it's predominately going to go higher, regardless of what you think you see in the chart, it gets right back to how these |
| 136 | 00:23:30,660 --> 00:23:40,230 | candlesticks are Rorschach they're, they're inkblots when you go to a psychiatrist which I've never been but when you go to them, standard practice in |
| 137 | 00:23:40,230 --> 00:23:51,150 | the past was they would show you these inkblots, and they would ask the person what do you see. And they were more or less manifest their own view about what |
| 138 | 00:23:51,150 --> 00:24:01,170 | it is it's in their head really. And they any force that inside of the image of the inkblot while these candlesticks, many times operated that, especially if |
| 139 | 00:24:01,170 --> 00:24:13,470 | you are emotionally stimulated to the point where you have something to prove, or you're desperate for if you're a gambler. And unfortunately, that's what |
| 140 | 00:24:13,650 --> 00:24:24,420 | creates that learning curve that's much deeper. For some people that come to either me or anyone else that teaches technical analysis. Whether their analysis |
| 141 | 00:24:24,420 --> 00:24:39,240 | concepts work or not, it's irrelevant. The concept is that most people have this ingrained. characteristic they this they want to do it opposite. And I don't |
| 142 | 00:24:39,300 --> 00:24:46,830 | understand how that I mean, I understood for myself why it was like that. I didn't trust anything. I didn't trust anything at all in the books after a |
| 143 | 00:24:46,830 --> 00:24:55,590 | while. So then it made me a contrary, so I don't take anybody's word about what they think causes price to go up and down. I just discount all of it and say |
| 144 | 00:24:55,590 --> 00:25:06,210 | that's all nonsense. Which makes me abrasive too. Some people and they don't like me, because I'm very strong willed in that regard. But my son struggling |
| 145 | 00:25:06,210 --> 00:25:20,310 | with that in his early stages, and he wants to just now prove he can do it on his own too soon, like, this is a video game. And I'm having a real hard time |
| 146 | 00:25:21,690 --> 00:25:22,860 | trying to be |
| 147 | 00:25:25,650 --> 00:25:34,590 | I don't know, the, the word escapes me. But I'm struggling with the dad, me versus the inner circle trader. Because the inner circle trader is in me saying, |
| 148 | 00:25:34,620 --> 00:25:43,170 | alright, you so and so you're gonna get chopped up, and you're gonna feel it, and then you're gonna feel stupid. And you're gonna complain to me about why you |
| 149 | 00:25:43,170 --> 00:25:52,800 | didn't listen to me. But I don't want him to go through that. Because I know those things are major setbacks and their barriers mentally, because then you |
| 150 | 00:25:52,800 --> 00:26:03,840 | start worrying about am I going to do that in the future, when, if you follow the rules, the likelihood of that happening is this less. So and I've had |
| 151 | 00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:14,430 | students in my paid mentorship, who paid me to teach them improved. daily, weekly, monthly for years. I said where the Mark was gonna go. And over 90% |
| 152 | 00:26:14,460 --> 00:26:25,650 | accurate, it's documented, there's no denying it. And I had people in there, from every intake, every time I opened up a mentorship in enrollment, some new |
| 153 | 00:26:25,650 --> 00:26:35,550 | group of people would come in, and invariably, there'd be some in there, that would be telling me, they can't make it work. And come to find out. They're |
| 154 | 00:26:35,550 --> 00:26:44,550 | doing the opposite of what I said in the commentary. Which makes no sense to me. I don't understand. Like, I don't understand. Like, if you're paying someone |
| 155 | 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:53,580 | like wrenches, are you gonna go to Tiger Woods, if he offered the opportunity to to mentor you on how to play golf better, how to drive better, how to putt |
| 156 | 00:26:53,580 --> 00:27:04,110 | better. As a reminder, folks, I know some of you don't like to hear these stories. But look at price isn't doing anything yet. No. So just relax. The the |
| 157 | 00:27:04,110 --> 00:27:13,770 | idea of going to someone that knows how to do something, it's proven. You've seen me do this many times openly calling things on Twitter, my group, my |
| 158 | 00:27:13,770 --> 00:27:24,660 | private, older students, they've seen me for years, outline the market in great detail and watched it pan out. So as a mentor, it was, it's still a struggling |
| 159 | 00:27:24,660 --> 00:27:36,690 | point for me to understand why individuals knowing full well, that there is a track record of consistency and accuracy. In that same source tells you this is |
| 160 | 00:27:36,690 --> 00:27:48,690 | where you should focus on price. This is where the next draw on liquidity is going to be. If it's above the marketplace, why? Why do these individuals fight |
| 161 | 00:27:48,690 --> 00:27:58,230 | that and feed it and then complain that they can't do it? What are you complaining about? Why even complain? Like you're looking for some external |
| 162 | 00:27:58,230 --> 00:28:06,930 | responsibility for your own actions? When it was you that did it? Like you're doing it? So it's almost like borderline insanity. That's what that's what it |
| 163 | 00:28:06,930 --> 00:28:17,100 | feels like, from an observers perspective on the outside, it borderlines insanity, you're doing something expecting a different result from what |
| 164 | 00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:26,490 | statistically has been proven, there's consistency, what I'm suggesting is going to happen in the market. And it doesn't, it's very hard for me to the wrestle |
| 165 | 00:28:26,490 --> 00:28:36,120 | with that now, you know, because I've had now two sons exhibit that. And I've tried everything I can to avoid that. And they've seen me do this, they've |
| 166 | 00:28:36,120 --> 00:28:46,020 | watched me call it they've watched me paint it out forms, I love this, this was gonna happen. And then something goofy happens with this boy, he gets in this |
| 167 | 00:28:46,020 --> 00:28:57,030 | pursuit of getting funded. It's like, I'm going to do it my own way. And I'm like, You're making this harder than it needs to be. And I'm trying to be very |
| 168 | 00:28:57,030 --> 00:29:09,420 | patient, I'm trying to be very unlike myself, let's put it that way. Because I'm not typically a patient person. I may seem patient, but I'm extremely impatient. |
| 169 | 00:29:10,140 --> 00:29:24,180 | So I try to do the best I can. In terms of not drilling him like I would someone else. Like any of you. If you did this, I'd be blunt with you and just say, |
| 170 | 00:29:24,660 --> 00:29:39,090 | You're the problem. You need to fix it. You're not doing what you're being told to do. And of all my kids, he's that he's, he's, he's ready all the time, ready |
| 171 | 00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:48,420 | for a competition ready for an arm wrestling match. You know, he's bigger than I am now. Stronger, and he likes to show it to me. So it's just one more thing |
| 172 | 00:29:48,420 --> 00:30:00,930 | where I want to see him be better than me is this and I believe he could be but he has to allow himself to be taught. And I don't know what Like the threshold |
| 173 | 00:30:00,930 --> 00:30:10,140 | he has to hit before that breaks in him in his lessons. And maybe it's the reason why he hasn't shown any interest up until now. Because he knows that |
| 174 | 00:30:10,140 --> 00:30:19,950 | maybe subconsciously he would carry on like this. And when there's something at stake you now it's prize, right? It's a prize. It's a trophy. If he can do this |
| 175 | 00:30:19,950 --> 00:30:31,590 | on his own, which what's the chances of someone going against what I'm saying the markets gonna go and they haven't traded they haven't had any experience |
| 176 | 00:30:31,590 --> 00:30:40,080 | they have really no idea what they're doing. But they have the the Moxie to just go ahead and try. And I tried explained to him I said, even if you were to do it |
| 177 | 00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:53,430 | correctly, a few times and even get funded, doing it opposite to what I'm telling you. That doesn't indicate anything except for happenstance coincidence, |
| 178 | 00:30:54,030 --> 00:31:05,190 | that's not skill. That's just it just happened. And the chances you consistently doing that going against the things I'm teaching it's not it's not you're gonna |
| 179 | 00:31:05,190 --> 00:31:07,530 | have you're not gonna have a favorable outcome as to say that way. |
| 180 | 00:31:09,810 --> 00:31:18,690 | So you maybe that's the reason why I have a migraine. I'm stressing over this boys are getting gray hair |
| 181 | 00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:37,980 | look for this level here. Expected go down to here. And then he'll, I'm sorry. I'm calling to the higher levels and he's, he's pointing to other things that's |
| 182 | 00:31:37,980 --> 00:31:44,430 | below the marketplace. I'm like, Why are you looking down here? Because what there's a gap there that that's, that's that thing that we're supposed to be |
| 183 | 00:31:44,430 --> 00:31:53,610 | looking for? Did you not listen to me? Did I explain this in a different language that you don't know? We're going up. We're reaching up. So we're going |
| 184 | 00:31:53,610 --> 00:31:57,720 | to go short. Because there's relatively close down |
| 185 | 00:31:57,720 --> 00:31:59,880 | here. There's their cell stops. |
| 186 | 00:32:01,260 --> 00:32:07,740 | Okay, but they're not going to have to be taught or reached into right now. It has unfinished business above |
| 187 | 00:32:07,740 --> 00:32:09,960 | us. So |
| 188 | 00:32:11,730 --> 00:32:20,970 | please pray for me because I'm having a hard time dealing with it. It's easy to deal with you. Basically strangers or I can just be harsh with you when it's |
| 189 | 00:32:20,970 --> 00:32:31,710 | necessary. When it's your flesh and blood it's not so easy. Because I want to make sure that I don't be hot headed like I was with my oldest son because I |
| 190 | 00:32:31,710 --> 00:32:39,780 | would really scold him and say look, you got to do this you got to do that. And I guess he was just like well I'm just gonna do the crypto and that way I'll |
| 191 | 00:32:39,780 --> 00:32:42,030 | show you that didn't work out well. |
| 192 | 00:32:51,270 --> 00:32:59,550 | Alright, so we're able to almost reach up in that 40 Aba which is consequent approach I have an old new week opening got which is what these levels are okay |
| 193 | 00:33:04,350 --> 00:33:11,100 | woman after $10 index |
| 194 | 00:33:11,100 --> 00:33:13,350 | is still just meandering around |
| 195 | 00:33:13,590 --> 00:33:14,610 | it's low the day. |
| 196 | 00:33:33,750 --> 00:33:43,740 | The Dow futures if they look at that real quick, it's really slid lower as you would expect because it was the one that was failing to make the higher high or |
| 197 | 00:33:43,740 --> 00:33:46,290 | higher highs. The NASDAQ |
| 198 | 00:33:48,390 --> 00:33:54,690 | was able to make the higher high and es yes |
| 199 | 00:33:57,870 --> 00:34:08,700 | needed higher highs. So we have SMT divergence after digging a little bit deeper into a premium new week opening gap. The opening range gap high which is 930s |
| 200 | 00:34:08,700 --> 00:34:18,180 | opening price here a month and see do we get below that I'm not interested in chasing this higher so that we know it can go higher and I will miss that move. |
| 201 | 00:34:18,270 --> 00:34:29,100 | I will not engage that I will not touch it or want to look for it. And I'm okay with that. If it goes higher because the 4100 I don't care. I have rules I have |
| 202 | 00:34:29,100 --> 00:34:41,940 | to stick to and if I'm wrong because I follow the rules and didn't take a trade and missed the move. That's to me that's fine. It stings a little bit my ego, my |
| 203 | 00:34:41,940 --> 00:34:55,290 | pride. But it doesn't hurt. It doesn't hurt you. Being wrong does not hurt you. Doing things wrong in a trade and abandoning the rules. That's painful. That's |
| 204 | 00:34:55,410 --> 00:35:07,440 | that hurts you because either undos the some positive things that you've built up in your, in your model and you following that model for it starts the |
| 205 | 00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:17,580 | beginning processes of bad habits. And bad habits are something you want to make sure you don't. You don't want to do those things. Feeling impulsive, feeling |
| 206 | 00:35:17,580 --> 00:35:29,850 | impatient, I gotta push the button. Whatever ICT says the I'm going in there and get my funded account passed to get my rent money today in one of those days, so |
| 207 | 00:35:29,850 --> 00:35:30,150 | you know |
| 208 | 00:35:36,930 --> 00:35:47,700 | if you look at how prices been behaving like it's, it's a lot of whipsaw on here, even though it's going to levels that we can anticipate the the clean, |
| 209 | 00:35:47,760 --> 00:36:00,870 | real low risk, just precise points of entry. They're just they're not as obvious right now. And I know when I say things like that right away, you're thinking, |
| 210 | 00:36:00,900 --> 00:36:04,140 | Oh, here it is. That's the sign that they're changing the algorithm. |
| 211 | 00:36:05,220 --> 00:36:06,120 | It's not happening. |
| 212 | 00:36:06,390 --> 00:36:14,460 | It says we are in a very difficult time. It's been difficult times before I've been in markets long enough to know that there's been times that are sloppy, you |
| 213 | 00:36:14,460 --> 00:36:25,020 | just you just can't expect to be as precise because the market has been really crummy. We have a lot of things right now going on in the past few years. And |
| 214 | 00:36:25,020 --> 00:36:39,540 | right now today, you know, potential, W AR, that's increasing. Bank collapses, new monetary system restructuring rollouts of central bank, digital currencies, |
| 215 | 00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:51,390 | all the other normal nonsense that goes on in politics. And everybody's at their wit's end, everything's expensive. Everybody's wanting to cut someone else's |
| 216 | 00:36:51,390 --> 00:37:01,590 | throat because they took their parking spot. Everything is intense right now. And add to it now you're looking at these candlesticks, and you're demanding |
| 217 | 00:37:01,590 --> 00:37:17,850 | they speak to you. In kind whispers. It says so far, we're seeing what I'd like to see. Which is moving down away from that opening price at 930, which frames |
| 218 | 00:37:17,850 --> 00:37:28,950 | the opening range gap high. If we had get or opened lower than where we settled yesterday. That would be the opening range gap low. Okay, so that's how I'm |
| 219 | 00:37:28,950 --> 00:37:41,700 | labeling that so we can keep track of everything I'm saying. So we have a high, low, higher high Ness, this high in this high. I'm looking past that because we |
| 220 | 00:37:41,700 --> 00:37:51,690 | went to this high ultimately. So if I went through a higher timeframe chart, it would be referring to this high, that low in that high. But because these highs |
| 221 | 00:37:51,690 --> 00:38:01,890 | here, in here are inside the range of that high to that low. I'm looking at this structure here as the breaker. That's what I'm looking at. Okay. So it's these |
| 222 | 00:38:01,890 --> 00:38:10,830 | two down close candles that I'm referring to specifically. That would be my bearish breaker. We're below that gap. I told you, I would want to see that |
| 223 | 00:38:10,830 --> 00:38:21,630 | happening. We're inside of the 10 o'clock hour, it's six minutes after 10. Admittedly, I'd like to see it go below that low and leave a fair value get |
| 224 | 00:38:21,660 --> 00:38:30,720 | here, come back up overlap into this old fair value got that would be an inversion fair value gap inside of this bearish breaker to be trading there |
| 225 | 00:38:30,990 --> 00:38:36,300 | after a potential shift in market structure lower. So we're watching this low right here. Okay. |
| 226 | 00:38:38,370 --> 00:38:39,480 | Let me draw a little line on it |
| 227 | 00:38:47,460 --> 00:38:53,730 | I always do that. I try to change the color of mine I'm changing the color of the text |
| 228 | 00:39:02,790 --> 00:39:03,390 | Alright, so |
| 229 | 00:39:03,540 --> 00:39:13,950 | we'll watch and see if we go through 4075 in three quarters. I don't want to see it come back out here. I'm gonna leave that extended this candidate that because |
| 230 | 00:39:13,950 --> 00:39:24,150 | then we offer what a fair value get the form, right inside of this old favor. You got an inside the range. Let me draw that out too. Because now I don't |
| 231 | 00:39:24,150 --> 00:39:33,210 | usually have all this stuff on my chart as a reminder that folks that are seeing my charts all this lipstick on it. I'm only doing it so that way you can see |
| 232 | 00:39:33,240 --> 00:39:43,260 | conceptually what I'm internalizing in price I'm not. I'm not saying that you should have this on your chart forever. But while you're back testing and |
| 233 | 00:39:43,260 --> 00:39:52,770 | studying old moves, you kind of want to have that stuff on there. And over time, your I won't need to see it because you'll you'll just jump to this view on the |
| 234 | 00:39:52,770 --> 00:39:53,130 | chart. |
| 235 | 00:40:01,410 --> 00:40:14,340 | Now see how animated this run is from here, up here. So while yes, this parent price swing starts down here, I'm going to run a fib from this low, up to the |
| 236 | 00:40:14,340 --> 00:40:21,780 | high and that's going to be on a dealing range and the reason why I'm picking this low okay for the folks that are just eating potato chips and watching |
| 237 | 00:40:21,780 --> 00:40:32,220 | something else at the same time you're listening to this I'm choosing this low because it had a very energetic price run. So while yes, the parent price when |
| 238 | 00:40:32,220 --> 00:40:41,670 | it begins down here, if we're looking at the fractal, it's been shown in this chart on my screen, I'm electing to use this one because it's much more |
| 239 | 00:40:41,670 --> 00:40:52,140 | energetic. It's much more pronounced you can clearly see that one versus this rounded bottom type thing. I don't like that so much. Basically arrange and we |
| 240 | 00:40:52,140 --> 00:41:09,300 | left it and then we energetically moved away. So I'm gonna bore fib just to get equilibrium Okay, so equilibrium comes in right here so right now we're still in |
| 241 | 00:41:09,300 --> 00:41:18,840 | a premium what what discount arrays exist inside this portion of price action |
| 242 | 00:41:25,500 --> 00:41:27,150 | with down here is |
| 243 | 00:41:29,820 --> 00:41:34,410 | in your mind, something that would be a reason for price to go down into |
| 244 | 00:41:36,570 --> 00:41:40,050 | while you see these lows here, so that will be sell side here |
| 245 | 00:41:42,750 --> 00:41:43,470 | that sell side? |
| 246 | 00:42:08,490 --> 00:42:09,120 | Okay, there's |
| 247 | 00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:12,660 | a small little fear a gap here with a short term low with sell side. |
| 248 | 00:42:24,210 --> 00:42:26,550 | And then we sell sign down here. |
| 249 | 00:42:31,590 --> 00:42:41,190 | So I'll just walk you through how to map out discount a raise. When we're looking for the market, the pro below. I'm watching this low down here, okay. |
| 250 | 00:42:43,980 --> 00:42:57,030 | That's pretty simple, isn't it? It's not a lot of acrobatics. Very simple, straightforward idea, imbalances. And liquidity. So we've tried many times, |
| 251 | 00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:08,340 | here, here, here, here to go higher, and it logically turned, broke below this area here but below these relative equal lows, which is the reason why I said I |
| 252 | 00:43:08,340 --> 00:43:16,020 | want to see a trade below that one. But some of you are thinking, Well, why don't you just trust it as as a shift in market structure with this one, you can |
| 253 | 00:43:16,020 --> 00:43:24,660 | it's extremely aggressive. They'll be very aggressive. I mean, if I were using that I would have already went short here at that low that Faraday got but |
| 254 | 00:43:24,660 --> 00:43:34,860 | because I'm electing to go to this one here, I want to see just how just how we have it right now. So yeah, we have this candles high. And that candles low. |
| 255 | 00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:44,370 | It's already set up that allow for that Faraday got to be there when the next candle opens in 15 seconds. And then I want to see a trade down, leaving it |
| 256 | 00:43:44,370 --> 00:43:52,050 | there and then come back up into it. And then we would expect a repricing down into this sell side here. And then we'll see if we can get into these other ones |
| 257 | 00:43:52,050 --> 00:43:54,540 | I'm not suggesting or trying to be |
| 258 | 00:43:57,150 --> 00:43:57,990 | dogmatic about |
| 259 | 00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:17,910 | I'm looking at five minutes or as thick as a one minute chart and I didn't have a chance to type it in. |
| 260 | 00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:30,120 | There's the shift lower. We're going directly onto the chart we've already did it. I got this screen talking to you about everything else on the Financial |
| 261 | 00:44:30,180 --> 00:44:31,110 | Thought I was looking at one |
| 262 | 00:44:33,390 --> 00:44:41,430 | old fuddy duddy ICT Look what you did. Alright, so we had the fair value gap in here which |
| 263 | 00:44:41,820 --> 00:44:44,820 | I would have been referring to unfortunately, I was looking at financial. |
| 264 | 00:44:46,080 --> 00:44:53,220 | That's what I was saying earlier. I didn't want to change and title stuff as I'm looking at all these timeframes on my screens in front of me. And if I move |
| 265 | 00:44:53,220 --> 00:45:04,470 | things around or change stuff on this display as I'm talking to you live, I get disoriented But you can see we went down where we're looking for is your Vega. |
| 266 | 00:45:04,710 --> 00:45:11,550 | And also when I told you mentioned, if I was using these up here, I would have used that as an entry gone short, and some of you probably jumped on that. |
| 267 | 00:45:13,769 --> 00:45:15,539 | But South side's pressing below here |
| 268 | 00:45:23,700 --> 00:45:33,390 | Notice also how we were on a five minute chart and I drew that fair Vega discount array over here, look closely, you see how that right there is a |
| 269 | 00:45:33,390 --> 00:45:39,540 | refined imbalance where we can now take you can change that and move it to here |
| 270 | 00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:53,370 | because that's where a woman in balance resides, that would also still be below this low. So it'd be sellside below here. And inefficiency. |
| 271 | 00:45:55,110 --> 00:45:57,540 | There can you see that |
| 272 | 00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:07,350 | so we're about to hit the sell side. |
| 273 | 00:46:36,180 --> 00:46:48,810 | You see that? Well here are classic Support and Resistance teachers that this is support broken here, come back and touch the bottom of that and it should act as |
| 274 | 00:46:48,810 --> 00:46:58,230 | resistance and go lower. Whenever I see a wick like that, I split that in half. In Costco encouragement would be the level now I'd be expecting it to train to |
| 275 | 00:46:58,500 --> 00:47:08,340 | sometimes these works are a little bit longer, more pronounced, which would require it to go up even further into an above an old low and still be able to |
| 276 | 00:47:08,340 --> 00:47:20,400 | go off with lower prices later on. I would like to see this city here. Oh, that one big candle between this candles low and that candles high. I don't want to |
| 277 | 00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:33,570 | see all of that close in. So even if it does reprice higher, I want to see that more or less remain partially if not all open and willing to see the trade up |
| 278 | 00:47:33,570 --> 00:47:41,100 | into a little bit but I don't want to see entirely closing that. And I'm gonna go back one candle. So you can see the difference between where I'm anchoring. |
| 279 | 00:47:41,100 --> 00:47:51,180 | So that's this candle here. And that came candle here respectively, is what I'm referring to. So we can trade in into that up into here. But as much as half of |
| 280 | 00:47:51,180 --> 00:48:02,460 | that wick which will be essentially 4076 and a quarter. So if I'm watching price eight Brenton say I was able to get off on a short up here. I would allow for |
| 281 | 00:48:02,460 --> 00:48:17,220 | and be completely comfortable with it trading back up to 76 and a quarter. Or as much as this 4076 and three quarters. It is a matter of when you guys ask me how |
| 282 | 00:48:17,220 --> 00:48:27,210 | do you trust it? How do you know when the hold on to it is going to keep moving in that reverse on? Well, nobody really knows. Because it anytime the market can |
| 283 | 00:48:27,660 --> 00:48:40,230 | be manipulated in making railroad, whatever is going on in the marketplace at the time. So you don't want to be so. So married to the idea that you can't |
| 284 | 00:48:40,260 --> 00:48:51,480 | allow for the uncertainties of what can happen in marketplaces where manipulation comes in. Something comes into the marketplace, whether some deep |
| 285 | 00:48:51,480 --> 00:49:01,050 | political upheaval, some act of war, some act of God, something happens that no one would realistically expect to happen. And then the market does something |
| 286 | 00:49:01,050 --> 00:49:10,410 | entirely unexpected. So you have to have that in your mind all the time, which right now we're in Black Swan season, which means anything can happen. Anything |
| 287 | 00:49:10,410 --> 00:49:19,170 | can happen that's unexpected and cause all kinds of damage in everybody's model everybody's concept and won't work for a short period of time where it just goes |
| 288 | 00:49:19,170 --> 00:49:21,330 | recklessly. One way |
| 289 | 00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:34,140 | so looking for that sell side below 4173 quarters to be gravitating spike through into that 4069 level. |
| 290 | 00:49:37,320 --> 00:49:44,490 | main takeaway is we were waiting for the 10 o'clock hour. This is that silver bullet that was given in that Twitter space |
| 291 | 00:49:51,540 --> 00:50:03,480 | some of the newer folks are like would you say silver bullet? What's that? Silver Bullet trade ICT is a set up that will form every single day, every |
| 292 | 00:50:03,480 --> 00:50:14,790 | single day, it will form. And what you're looking for is between 10 o'clock, New York local time and 11 o'clock New York local time, there will be a displacement |
| 293 | 00:50:15,300 --> 00:50:25,950 | in a direction that you should be anticipating. Once that displacement occurs, you're waiting for a fair value get to form when it does, you're going to be |
| 294 | 00:50:25,980 --> 00:50:36,780 | expecting it to be traded into and then repriced, to a pool of liquidity that would be opposing your entry. For instance, what we're outlining here, we've |
| 295 | 00:50:36,780 --> 00:50:49,680 | already seen, you know, a small minor delivery of it, I mean, it's been five handles or so since that, that run in here. But the, the expectation is for you |
| 296 | 00:50:49,680 --> 00:51:01,500 | to anticipate this formation in price, every trading day, every single trading day, it will form, which is like on silver bullet, it's a move, that will always |
| 297 | 00:51:01,500 --> 00:51:08,820 | be there, they will never be able to hide it from you, they're never going to be able to change it, nothing's going to change it, it's always going to be there, |
| 298 | 00:51:08,820 --> 00:51:18,240 | there's never any reason for you to doubt that it won't exist, okay. And it's also a way to train yourself, patients, teaching yourself patients sticking to a |
| 299 | 00:51:18,240 --> 00:51:29,040 | model and some rule based ideas and those being you're looking for five handles. That's it as a new student, as someone that's just now starting to become |
| 300 | 00:51:29,910 --> 00:51:38,430 | interested in the marketplace. It's, it's a little intimidating, isn't it? Who do you listen to? Who do you trust? What do you waste your time on and beginning |
| 301 | 00:51:38,460 --> 00:51:44,940 | in regret later on, and you want to avoid that you want to go to the people that have the best stuff, you're thinking that there's a system or a teacher out |
| 302 | 00:51:44,940 --> 00:51:52,980 | there is going to teach you how to never lose, they don't exist, I'm not that guy. So there's a lot of things that goes through your mind when you first get |
| 303 | 00:51:52,980 --> 00:52:01,890 | involved in all this stuff. So I tried to be as responsible as I can and say things like, you're going to practice in a demo, you're not going to trade with |
| 304 | 00:52:01,890 --> 00:52:08,730 | lifelines, you're going to decide if you ever decide to do that. I don't ever tell you to do that. But I promised that you're going to see things in price |
| 305 | 00:52:08,730 --> 00:52:18,780 | that are very consistent. They're rule based, structured approaches for you to go in and study, like a laboratory experiment. If I was to say to you go out |
| 306 | 00:52:18,780 --> 00:52:28,740 | there and find some random fair value gap and pick a sell side or buy side liquidity pool. And good luck. Right away. 90%, you're gonna be like, What am I |
| 307 | 00:52:28,740 --> 00:52:41,610 | supposed to do with that? This guy's not teaching me anything. Versus okay, if I tell you, you hear my stomach, I'm, I'm starving. Today's fast. So if we are |
| 308 | 00:52:42,300 --> 00:52:57,270 | looking at a time window, very specific time window, 60 minutes, okay. Inside of one hour, you can find a five handle run. That's reasonably easy, in my in my |
| 309 | 00:52:57,270 --> 00:53:05,490 | opinion. And of course, my opinion is biased, because I've known a lot longer than you. But out of all the things that I teach, I think that it's visually |
| 310 | 00:53:05,970 --> 00:53:19,710 | easy to see a fair value. It's easy to see that. But it may not be easy for you right now. But it's easier to see that than a breaker, it's easier way easier to |
| 311 | 00:53:19,710 --> 00:53:31,230 | see it then determining what order block the trade off. You know, it's there's a, there's a graduation between one PDE array and understanding it to the next, |
| 312 | 00:53:31,350 --> 00:53:42,180 | but you only need one. And if if you remember I said that 2022 model up with my daughter in mind, like I wanted to see her use that model. And I didn't want to |
| 313 | 00:53:42,180 --> 00:53:53,460 | see any excuse for her to say, well, I can't see it. Because the fair value gap jumps off. It's literally there in a chart. And even someone with a short span |
| 314 | 00:53:53,460 --> 00:54:00,660 | of attention. If I spent time with them, going through charts and showing it to them, they could see it. And they could go in the charts and find it in |
| 315 | 00:54:00,660 --> 00:54:09,660 | hindsight, but they don't have the experience to see it forming real time. And that's what these live sessions and that's what the Twitter experience with me |
| 316 | 00:54:09,780 --> 00:54:22,350 | is helping with. It does not remove the necessity for you to be looking and studying. Not just on those instances, we're on taking your attention to other |
| 317 | 00:54:22,410 --> 00:54:31,470 | old moves, and studying that and seeing it repeat over and over and over again. My stomach is talking. |
| 318 | 00:54:36,990 --> 00:54:51,780 | But the silver bullet is a time specific setup that forms between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock and I know you're all going to ask, why does it only work in 10 and |
| 319 | 00:54:51,780 --> 00:54:59,820 | 11 o'clock? Well, that's the morning session. So there's an afternoon session and I'll teach you later on. You get all your data, all kinds of tricks to show |
| 320 | 00:54:59,820 --> 00:55:15,450 | you But between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock, what you're looking at is the last portion of the move that's going to unfold just for that am session. And you're |
| 321 | 00:55:15,450 --> 00:55:26,130 | right in the heart of the move. And fair value gaps are generally forming. After a move begins, there's an inception of the move that you missed. That's like, |
| 322 | 00:55:26,340 --> 00:55:34,770 | selling short above old highs, you didn't get in, you weren't able to do that. But you don't need that, like I was teaching with the 2022 model, you don't need |
| 323 | 00:55:34,770 --> 00:55:49,740 | that, to be able to do consistent setups. Between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock, you are in the heart of the am session, which is essentially between 830 in the |
| 324 | 00:55:49,740 --> 00:56:05,100 | morning to 11 o'clock. It can go as far as noon, the beginning of New York lunch hour. But it's, again, a graduated thing in terms of time, there are macros that |
| 325 | 00:56:05,100 --> 00:56:17,670 | exist in price, were between 950 and 1010. In that 20 minute period, generally, you're gonna see a price run that begins within that 20 minute span. There's |
| 326 | 00:56:17,670 --> 00:56:26,220 | people out there trying to teach my stuff already in a little mentorships, or they're thinking discords and such Instagram. And they're already trying to say |
| 327 | 00:56:26,940 --> 00:56:40,470 | the move happens between 950 intent and you're already doing it wrong. So stop trying to teach my stuff. The move begins in there's 20 minutes. It's not the |
| 328 | 00:56:40,470 --> 00:56:54,630 | entirety of it, obviously it can in a fast move, or fast market, it can do that. But what you're looking for is a run that begins between 950 and 1010. That's |
| 329 | 00:56:54,630 --> 00:57:08,400 | the macro, it starts doing its run between those two time windows. There's another macro that exists at 1050 and 1110. There's two macros that starred in |
| 330 | 00:57:08,400 --> 00:57:21,840 | those two, and there's two hours the silver bullet is specific to the 10 o'clock till 11 o'clock hour. And what we're looking for is an obvious pool of liquidity |
| 331 | 00:57:22,260 --> 00:57:34,470 | that has not been tapped into or engaged, which I've mentioned, obviously, with the lines here, do you see it? You're not demanding that you capture the daily |
| 332 | 00:57:34,470 --> 00:57:49,260 | range. You're not demanding that it goes to your technical target, you're only expecting it to give you your five handles big paradigm shift there, because a |
| 333 | 00:57:49,260 --> 00:57:59,460 | lot of you also are taking this idea and trying to make more of it than it really is. Will there be times when that move is a significant higher low of the |
| 334 | 00:57:59,460 --> 00:58:07,410 | day? And it just keeps on running? Yes, yes. But in the beginning, you don't know when these are going to be there. You don't know what that criteria is that |
| 335 | 00:58:07,680 --> 00:58:20,220 | cause that. That's a whole lot of other things that you have learned progressively over time. So I'm reminding you as gently as I can just stick to |
| 336 | 00:58:20,220 --> 00:58:30,480 | the rules I'm telling you to stick to. And that way you won't be taken into these false expectations is going to do much more than it's designed to do. Case |
| 337 | 00:58:30,480 --> 00:58:40,290 | in point. Very gabbeh told us that we extended forward. When I was bumping up on the bottom of that. Here, I was looking at the five minute chart, I thought it |
| 338 | 00:58:40,290 --> 00:58:51,420 | was a one minute chart because I was busy talking to you. I said I would go short there with the expectation run lower if you see that price there. It's 78 |
| 339 | 00:58:51,420 --> 00:59:03,600 | and three quarters that that's better than five handles. Did it take the sell side? No. But that's the that's the structure that we use for drawing liquidity. |
| 340 | 00:59:04,110 --> 00:59:13,470 | Remember, I teach partials I teach that you have to pay yourself, I teach you that it's just a way for you to frame your expectations on where the price |
| 341 | 00:59:13,470 --> 00:59:14,400 | should gravitate to, |
| 342 | 00:59:15,660 --> 00:59:17,010 | to the back up to a financial Okay. |
| 343 | 00:59:19,920 --> 00:59:32,940 | So here's the low I was anticipating a draw to fill a gap year on a five minute chart as it went up into there. So as we hit that, if it were not seeing these |
| 344 | 00:59:32,940 --> 00:59:40,020 | relative equal lows here, we didn't have the relative equal lows. It was just one singular low. That would be an aggressive entry for me and it would be where |
| 345 | 00:59:40,020 --> 00:59:49,830 | I told you and it delivered immediately. As I said it, attacking the short term low. It offered more than five handles. That would be it. Now compare and |
| 346 | 00:59:49,830 --> 01:00:00,780 | contrast. And some of you probably already in this trade. And you were probably holding on for this sell side and this probably this ripped against you Don't |
| 347 | 01:00:00,780 --> 01:00:08,610 | take the trades, you're learning how to read a tape. Everything I just explained to you has not been explained anywhere else about this type of setup that |
| 348 | 01:00:08,610 --> 01:00:17,730 | between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock, you didn't have that insight, before you push the button, you had no idea what you're doing, you're impulsively trying to do |
| 349 | 01:00:17,730 --> 01:00:25,020 | something based on what I'm saying real time, instead of learning the lessons from watching and listening to what I'm expecting, what rules are there, what |
| 350 | 01:00:25,020 --> 01:00:34,200 | parameters are there, you can't learn doing what you're doing by pushing the button, you can't do that. You have to learn it, and then go practice with it. |
| 351 | 01:00:34,710 --> 01:00:43,320 | Go look for it no moves. That's the order of things, you don't learn how to do it, by listening to me, and trying to do it as I talk about it. That's not how |
| 352 | 01:00:43,320 --> 01:00:56,730 | you learn. So anyway, the delivery of five handles, that's the easy absolute 100% guaranteed time specific setup, that if you are brand new person, or |
| 353 | 01:00:56,730 --> 01:01:09,330 | someone is coming to this channel for the first time, a setup that forms so consistently. So routinely. There are so many things that are inside this model. |
| 354 | 01:01:09,540 --> 01:01:20,160 | And it's a complete model. It's an entire model in and of itself. Think about what it's offering, you don't have a whole lot of time, okay, no problem. You |
| 355 | 01:01:20,160 --> 01:01:29,730 | want to do this while you have your day job. Does your job permit you to have a lunch hour early in the day between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock, because if so, I |
| 356 | 01:01:29,730 --> 01:01:38,400 | will take my lunch, then that way you're not stealing time from your employer, you're being a good steward. And your time won't be divided, or your attention |
| 357 | 01:01:38,400 --> 01:01:47,610 | won't be divided during that time. Because you'll be expected to do what you're being paid to do by your boss, instead of watching candles form on your charts. |
| 358 | 01:01:50,430 --> 01:01:59,490 | If you are looking for a way to not spend so much time in front of the charts, which I can tell you is a good thing, because it's fatiguing over time, I don't |
| 359 | 01:01:59,490 --> 01:02:08,610 | care how much money you make, it's still very fatiguing to do it. It will wear on your eyes, it will wear on your back, it will wear on your body and your |
| 360 | 01:02:08,610 --> 01:02:21,810 | stress. So you want to kind of keep it to an optimal level. And I can't find a way that be more optimal than a one hour trading workday. Between 10 o'clock and |
| 361 | 01:02:21,810 --> 01:02:30,150 | 11 o'clock, you know, you absolutely know that this formation is going to be there. It's going to be there. Now, does that mean you're gonna have a winning |
| 362 | 01:02:30,150 --> 01:02:38,850 | trade every single day between 10 and 12? o'clock? Absolutely not? Absolutely not. It just means that you have an opportunity to have something that |
| 363 | 01:02:38,850 --> 01:02:46,410 | statistically is there all the time. And I don't want you to take my word at this, I want you to go back and look at every single trading day you can have |
| 364 | 01:02:46,410 --> 01:02:57,690 | data on and go through and see it's there. Now, what you need to practice is understanding as I've mapped out this morning, you don't need to be right about |
| 365 | 01:02:57,690 --> 01:03:06,690 | your levels. You just need to be right about does it offer the range? Does it offer something better than five handles? Because if it can move better than |
| 366 | 01:03:06,690 --> 01:03:15,390 | five handles, chances are, you probably will get five handles out of it. What do I mean by that? When we were looking at this fair value gap here, and it was |
| 367 | 01:03:15,390 --> 01:03:26,040 | bumping up against the here. I said, Okay, if we didn't have the relative equal lows here being specifically this low in that low? What was my apprehension? |
| 368 | 01:03:26,310 --> 01:03:38,250 | Because this could be a run lower, take the sell side out, and then rip higher and complete that new week open and get high here. So it's not it's not a |
| 369 | 01:03:38,250 --> 01:03:48,240 | singular low, it's relatively close. So there's gonna be sellside below that. So they went down below it. Yes. But I wanted to see this low taken out. That was |
| 370 | 01:03:48,240 --> 01:03:57,870 | one I would have would have been preferring rather, but an aggressive entry would have been right here. Does it offer five handles? Sure. Did it get to the |
| 371 | 01:03:57,870 --> 01:04:08,820 | sell side? No. Is it mean does it mean rather the the model is broken now. You're operating inside these rules, with the expectation that it's going to |
| 372 | 01:04:08,820 --> 01:04:18,270 | offer you five handles. You might not get it. It might be an instance where you're watching price and you expect to do something like I would what what I |
| 373 | 01:04:18,270 --> 01:04:29,310 | was looking for, and it might not deliver it to you. Because your parameter your entry, your limit order didn't get tagged in. You can't look at that as a reason |
| 374 | 01:04:29,310 --> 01:04:37,950 | to be upset. You can't be thinking well I wasted my time. How many 10 o'clock till 11 o'clock is in the future are going to be available to you. As long as |
| 375 | 01:04:37,950 --> 01:04:45,720 | you have breath right? As long as you have your mental faculties and the markets are open. You have lots of those laboratory experiments to to work with now. |
| 376 | 01:04:46,890 --> 01:04:57,210 | Will it take you two years to grow confident in using this as a model? I don't think so. But I think about two to three months is realistic, because you want |
| 377 | 01:04:57,210 --> 01:05:09,210 | to see previous data To confirm what I'm suggesting to you is valid, then when you see all that, then you'll feel comfortable with investing the time of |
| 378 | 01:05:09,210 --> 01:05:18,240 | walking forward with it tape reading. And you do that for several months. That way, when you're bored of it, and you just you see it, you just you're not in, |
| 379 | 01:05:18,270 --> 01:05:27,720 | you're not emotional about it not nervous, not excited, because it moves in your favor, you're just completely indifferent to the outcome, that means you're |
| 380 | 01:05:27,720 --> 01:05:39,780 | bored. That is the only time that if a trader thinks like that, then they can entertain the idea of maybe putting real money at work. But that's a decision |
| 381 | 01:05:39,780 --> 01:05:50,160 | that you you determine that. And when is it going to be where you're bored. It's all completely objective, from your perspective only. And it would be foolish of |
| 382 | 01:05:50,160 --> 01:06:00,870 | me, or anyone else trying to be a mentor or a teacher, to say, you're ready when this and this No, the only defining determination is, you know that you're not |
| 383 | 01:06:00,990 --> 01:06:10,470 | emotionally stimulated by the outcome, you're not chasing a field with movement, you're not trying to replace a bad experience with a good win. And you're just |
| 384 | 01:06:10,470 --> 01:06:18,870 | following the rules. And that's very hard thing for you to understand. Except if you're new, because you don't even have any rules, you don't have any |
| 385 | 01:06:18,870 --> 01:06:29,580 | experience, you haven't seen this form in previous data, enough times, and know that what I've said exists every day, between 10 o'clock and nine o'clock, |
| 386 | 01:06:30,090 --> 01:06:41,100 | identify liquidity, find a fair value, the fair a gap has to be opposing. In other words, opposite to the direction you anticipate the liquidity to be drawn |
| 387 | 01:06:41,100 --> 01:06:50,670 | to, for instance, fear of a gap after displacement lower, we wait for to trade up into the fair value gap and then trade towards a pool of liquidity lower in |
| 388 | 01:06:50,670 --> 01:06:59,970 | the form of sell side. If you're bullish, you're looking for the market to trade higher, displacement higher, leave a fair value gap below market price, then |
| 389 | 01:06:59,970 --> 01:07:08,790 | trade down at a fair value get and then gravitate towards a pool of liquidity, which will be by side that hasn't been engaged yet. And it has to have better |
| 390 | 01:07:08,790 --> 01:07:18,180 | than five handles in terms of the range from where you think it might get to. Not that it needs to get there. Remember, I'm teaching you how to look at price, |
| 391 | 01:07:18,390 --> 01:07:31,020 | removing the necessity of being right. Because right is not, it's not a destination. Being correct is not a destination, excellence in execution is it |
| 392 | 01:07:31,020 --> 01:07:38,190 | has a very small population, the only way you get to be a member of that is by doing the things I'm telling you to do, and avoid the things I'm telling you to |
| 393 | 01:07:38,190 --> 01:07:47,490 | avoid. But many times in human flesh and blood, they don't want to listen. And I don't understand, I don't understand that. It's like you all have to have that |
| 394 | 01:07:47,490 --> 01:07:55,770 | painful experience for you to you're part of the club. Now, I want card carrying members that said, I know I didn't have to reset my account, I didn't have to do |
| 395 | 01:07:56,040 --> 01:08:06,090 | a refunding of account, I didn't have to go back to the drawing board dozens of times, I want to spare you that I had to do that. You don't need to do that. And |
| 396 | 01:08:06,090 --> 01:08:14,100 | a lot of times because you hear me say certain words or a topic specific way or carry on the way I do, you know, some of you try to do that stuff. Like it's |
| 397 | 01:08:14,130 --> 01:08:23,100 | like your clone of me. And you don't, you definitely don't want to be a clone of me when I was my younger self because I had no idea what I was doing. And the |
| 398 | 01:08:23,100 --> 01:08:36,750 | way I teach is to prevent it my best ability. In my mind, I'm thinking I'm doing the best I can but it frustrates me because I don't see majority of the people |
| 399 | 01:08:36,750 --> 01:08:44,430 | that I know are problematic was when he started talking to me, either in Twitter or they talked to me, in my private mentorship. I already know about the |
| 400 | 01:08:44,430 --> 01:08:51,780 | questions they're asking or the things they comment on. Their their perspective is all messed up. And I know they're gonna be the problem children in my |
| 401 | 01:08:52,020 --> 01:09:00,120 | community. Not that they're gonna be trolling, some haven't they been removed. But I've also had people that are just problematically just don't want to listen |
| 402 | 01:09:00,120 --> 01:09:06,450 | no matter what I tell him. And I could sit here and tell you what's going to happen every single day. And they would be going against everything I'm doing. |
| 403 | 01:09:08,370 --> 01:09:10,830 | And then saying they don't understand why it doesn't work for them. |
| 404 | 01:09:12,569 --> 01:09:25,589 | What? Like, it makes no sense. It makes no sense. But yet it goes on all the time. Even in my free community. If you're honest, if you're honest. Okay. And |
| 405 | 01:09:25,589 --> 01:09:34,949 | you're listening to me, if you have faded. Anything I've ever said even though you've seen me call these things very accurately for a long, long time now. Have |
| 406 | 01:09:34,949 --> 01:09:45,629 | you ever faded it and then looked back and had a bad experience doing that fading? And think to yourself, why did I do that? Like, what was I thinking? I |
| 407 | 01:09:45,629 --> 01:09:52,529 | want to know to like what were you thinking I'm not trying to beat anybody up and I don't want you to put like a proverbial bull's eye on you for being |
| 408 | 01:09:52,529 --> 01:10:02,189 | trolled. None of you should be trolled, but I knew there's a lot of you that are just quietly doing it. Because you think that the markets move too far, it can't |
| 409 | 01:10:02,189 --> 01:10:10,409 | be likely to go to that next level, it's already moved so much, why can't they come back for the stops? Why can't they come back for the stops? Well, I can't |
| 410 | 01:10:10,409 --> 01:10:19,709 | do this, I can't do that. Because you're thinking in terms of buying and selling pressure, you're thinking in terms of overbought or oversold? I don't think like |
| 411 | 01:10:19,709 --> 01:10:30,599 | that. I don't teach like that either. I teach the markets gonna seek liquidity or inefficiency. And when a bimodal begins, like we did on Tuesday, on the heels |
| 412 | 01:10:30,599 --> 01:10:39,029 | of me talking about me being specific about the buy side only on Mondays, we'd go back and watch a YouTube video of us. Yes. Right now, at the time, it was |
| 413 | 01:10:39,029 --> 01:10:46,049 | ambiguous. It could have been either way. But I said like I always do. I always pick one side, unless I say I don't know. And that's sometimes it's a fair |
| 414 | 01:10:46,049 --> 01:10:53,939 | assessment. Sometimes I don't know. And I'll tell you, I have to wait for more information. But Monday in that video, it one and a half minutes in, you'll see |
| 415 | 01:10:53,939 --> 01:11:02,519 | me go into a hourly chart. And I'm targeting the buy side. I said that's what I'm interested in going forward. I can't edit the video. It's already there. |
| 416 | 01:11:02,819 --> 01:11:16,919 | It's done. There's no sell side mentioned in any of the video. I mentioned discount arrays. But my focus was on higher. Now. Did I think it was going to be |
| 417 | 01:11:16,949 --> 01:11:28,379 | a one way train from Tuesday all the way up to where we seen it straight today? No, I did not. Like it's doing some wonky things this year. And it's been very, |
| 418 | 01:11:28,379 --> 01:11:41,489 | very difficult for me to go in and do what I'm used to doing, which is a lot of back and forth, big runs easy. Just look at this, it demands a whole lot more |
| 419 | 01:11:41,489 --> 01:11:49,829 | focus. Because it's a lot of back and forth. whipsawing. I mean, look at what you've seen already here today. It's all over the place. And I mentioned this |
| 420 | 01:11:49,829 --> 01:12:01,199 | morning, it was like on Twitter, I said, it's probably going to be a difficult session, just lower your expectations. Now, you'll hear and see people after the |
| 421 | 01:12:01,199 --> 01:12:13,409 | stream ends, here's what I did. But they didn't say anything beforehand. And I'm trying to be the voice of reason. Don't buy into that kind of stuff. Because |
| 422 | 01:12:13,409 --> 01:12:20,309 | your results are going to be based on what you're seeing on that right edge of that chart where the candles haven't formed yet. That's where you're going to |
| 423 | 01:12:20,309 --> 01:12:31,319 | reside as a trader, you can't make money on the left side of that chart is nuts. It doesn't work like that. And right now, you're scared. You're intimidated by |
| 424 | 01:12:31,349 --> 01:12:39,509 | not knowing what the next candle is going to do? Is it going to rip your face off? Is it going to go and get you stopped out and then run in your favor |
| 425 | 01:12:39,539 --> 01:12:47,699 | without you being a part of it. That's all normal. Everybody thinks like that. And beginning. And if you feel like that when you start trading with live funds, |
| 426 | 01:12:47,819 --> 01:12:57,869 | you haven't traded in demo long enough. Because you're now still keyed up about the results. You have to be right. And demo is there to determine the time |
| 427 | 01:12:57,869 --> 01:13:07,319 | window when you're no longer interested in being right. You're interested in following the rules. Whatever the outcome is, you're following the rules. The |
| 428 | 01:13:07,319 --> 01:13:17,219 | rules say this, the rules say that I take profits partially here and then I'm on my stop loss. I'm not trailing my stop loss. I never open my stop up larger. |
| 429 | 01:13:17,969 --> 01:13:29,459 | Once you put a stop on, it only reduces in risk. It never opens back up. Never, never, ever, ever. It's better for you to just collapse the trade. If you have |
| 430 | 01:13:29,459 --> 01:13:36,449 | the impulse and you're in a trade. And you feel like you want to open the trade up with more risk, because you trailed it too tightly. Just close the trade. |
| 431 | 01:13:37,289 --> 01:13:45,749 | Because you've already lost the plot. I promise you that will serve you better than a few times that you're going to get out and it runs in your favor. That |
| 432 | 01:13:45,749 --> 01:13:54,719 | won't happen most of the time. So you need to start feeling like that. That's your subconscious telling you. You've been here before. You've been here before, |
| 433 | 01:13:54,809 --> 01:14:02,219 | but you want to be right. So now you're wrestling with being right. And the experience that you remembered subconsciously, that this is exactly what you did |
| 434 | 01:14:02,219 --> 01:14:11,399 | the last time and it stopped you out. But you now have committed yourself to this idea. It has to pan out. It has to there's no other way for it. Now what |
| 435 | 01:14:11,399 --> 01:14:21,869 | are you doing, you're imposing your will and imposing your will. With a market like this. It will break your arm off. You can't armwrestling when you can't. |
| 436 | 01:14:22,739 --> 01:14:32,129 | But in the beginning, you think you can and younger men like I did when I was 20. I felt like I could do it all. And it was very hard to learn these lessons. |
| 437 | 01:14:34,619 --> 01:14:41,399 | In time, you'll learn how to anticipate these types of moves where it's choppy, you know when it's going to be difficult. What makes it difficult this morning, |
| 438 | 01:14:41,399 --> 01:14:48,209 | by the way, you're probably asking, How did I know to tweak there was going to be a difficult session. What sets the tone for that? Well, the fact that we've |
| 439 | 01:14:48,209 --> 01:15:01,829 | claimed so far up not not for the basis of overbought, but because we traded too. We traded to an old high March 6, okay. We went into it The Order block or |
| 440 | 01:15:01,829 --> 01:15:20,669 | the opening price of Mark six daily candle. We have moved, essentially parabolically. From Tuesday, one direction with no real retracements lower. And |
| 441 | 01:15:20,669 --> 01:15:28,979 | I know some of you are thinking, all this bad news is out there right now, it's got to collapse the market, it's gonna, it's got to create a crash, it's got to |
| 442 | 01:15:28,979 --> 01:15:43,229 | create a crash, I want to remind you all that when Venezuela was going through its downturn and essentially collapse. Its market was going up. It wasn't it |
| 443 | 01:15:43,229 --> 01:15:52,709 | wasn't affected by that, like, you might think that it would be a catalyst for a stock market crash, it doesn't work, that way, they can take your money from you |
| 444 | 01:15:52,709 --> 01:16:04,049 | in the stock market will still go up. They can make things hyper inflated, in the market or still go up. Why? Because it's not controlled by buying and |
| 445 | 01:16:04,049 --> 01:16:05,579 | selling pressure, a low. |
| 446 | 01:16:19,530 --> 01:16:31,920 | If I were not teaching, if I wasn't mentoring, like this year, this is the day I would have stayed in bed, slept in and not worried about it. And let me give you |
| 447 | 01:16:31,920 --> 01:16:40,380 | a little more details as to why I felt because I don't feel like I've even satisfied myself about what that response was. So let's go over here to take all |
| 448 | 01:16:40,380 --> 01:16:49,980 | the lipstick off. Let's go to a daily chart. Okay, if you go to the video |
| 449 | 01:16:49,980 --> 01:16:55,560 | I put on Monday evening, this week, I believe it was the 27th. |
| 450 | 01:16:57,300 --> 01:17:04,410 | I had kids, I can't draw anything. As soon as I draw it, it'll bring all the other stuff up, but just follow my cursor along. Leave it still for a second so |
| 451 | 01:17:04,410 --> 01:17:19,770 | you can track it. Okay, rate there. That down close candle over here. I had that annotated on my chart on Monday evening, is a very good sell side and balanced |
| 452 | 01:17:19,770 --> 01:17:33,930 | by seven efficiency. So the market has reached up into that we traded into the opening price of it. But this candles high and retreated into a new week opening |
| 453 | 01:17:33,930 --> 01:17:46,410 | gap. That is also if you take it as also for your notes to someone who's new who opened and gapped it's, you take the old order flow areas. Okay, before we even |
| 454 | 01:17:46,410 --> 01:17:56,430 | traded up here, you can see that this is a swing high. What you want to do is look inside that swing high. Where does the new week, new week opening gap exist |
| 455 | 01:17:56,460 --> 01:18:04,560 | in that overflow? Much like if you look at this old low down here, where does the new weak opening gap that rests inside that overflow? Where's the new weak |
| 456 | 01:18:04,560 --> 01:18:13,920 | opening gap and here is everyone in this consolidation. And you're going to see how the market really accumulates algorithmically. With that new weak opening |
| 457 | 01:18:13,920 --> 01:18:22,620 | gap. You're going to struggle with all these different new weak opening gaps in your charts and the beginning because you feel like you have to have all of |
| 458 | 01:18:22,620 --> 01:18:32,190 | them, you only have to have five, you only have to have five of them. Okay. But the secret to it is in one of them. There's several that I'm going to teach you. |
| 459 | 01:18:32,190 --> 01:18:40,890 | But one of the easiest ones is when you look at old order flow, like this old area of consolidation and high back here, what new weak opening gap runs through |
| 460 | 01:18:40,890 --> 01:18:48,930 | that, because that's the fair value that it's going to trade back up into later on. In addition to the individual waterblocks itself. So these are the things |
| 461 | 01:18:48,930 --> 01:18:59,460 | that I always tuck in deep in the boring lectures. Because I don't want to just give it to anybody. You're gonna have to put some effort into listening, going |
| 462 | 01:18:59,460 --> 01:19:10,080 | through the motions like any other student with due diligence. This stuff's too good just to be tossing it around on Twitter, tossing a short or a five minute |
| 463 | 01:19:10,080 --> 01:19:18,210 | training or ICT in five minutes. You can't do what I do. Your students that are learning from you are learning from me and when they don't do as well as they |
| 464 | 01:19:18,210 --> 01:19:25,080 | would be if they are under my hands. That's not my stuff failing that's you failing to know everything that I know about my own concepts. |
| 465 | 01:19:28,050 --> 01:19:28,950 | Sorry, that hurts. |
| 466 | 01:19:30,750 --> 01:19:44,640 | But because we've had one way delivery, we have done multiple premium arrays. Rejection block here, up close candle closing price we went through that |
| 467 | 01:19:46,020 --> 01:20:02,490 | consequent encouragement of the wick we went through that the old high went through that consequent curvature of the city here when Through that, are we to |
| 468 | 01:20:02,490 --> 01:20:09,900 | the low of this candle, which is the low of the fair value, I'm sorry, it's the high of the fair value gap. But it's the low that order block, which is the up |
| 469 | 01:20:09,900 --> 01:20:17,250 | close candle prior to this displacement. So that low, we traded to that and through it, we traded up to the closing, I'm sorry, the opening price of that |
| 470 | 01:20:17,250 --> 01:20:25,230 | candle here. So the body of the order block, and we've traded into that. And then inside of this range of this old high, we have what |
| 471 | 01:20:30,870 --> 01:20:43,530 | a new big opening gap that runs right through it. And that's where we trade it to. Now, what has the market really done? Nothing. It's not talking trade, push |
| 472 | 01:20:43,530 --> 01:20:53,160 | a button, I'm pushing all the buttons. So you understand what it is I'm teaching you. You want to reprice without me, I want you all to be able to say, it's been |
| 473 | 01:20:53,280 --> 01:21:01,680 | fun. Second week in November, ICT, but you know what, I don't need to come back to YouTube channel, I don't want you to come back here, give me any ad revenue, |
| 474 | 01:21:01,770 --> 01:21:08,670 | because you've learned how to do it, and there's no need to come back here anymore. Okay, I'm not going to produce all kinds of content on a day by day |
| 475 | 01:21:08,670 --> 01:21:22,470 | basis, a weekly basis. I'm done. I'm done. And I want you to do well. And I want you to be comfortable, and know all the things that have to be considered. In |
| 476 | 01:21:22,470 --> 01:21:31,590 | these types of climates, these market conditions, what makes it hard, we've already traded up there. But I'm not trying to pick a top my students, no, I do |
| 477 | 01:21:31,590 --> 01:21:42,720 | not try to pick tops in bull runs, I don't do it. I don't. And if you try to do that, you'll have your face ripped off. And that's not the system or the |
| 478 | 01:21:42,720 --> 01:21:50,640 | concepts failing at you trying to do something I told you not to do. But you'll have selective hearing. And you'll insist that it's my fault or my concepts |
| 479 | 01:21:50,640 --> 01:22:01,140 | fault when you're doing it wrong. My own flesh and blood are showing that human cheat, it's, it's mind boggling to me, I don't understand that. I don't |
| 480 | 01:22:01,140 --> 01:22:18,660 | understand. I go. So we swept the rejection block here. This candle here. And then above that, we went above the opening range gap high, which is the 930 |
| 481 | 01:22:18,660 --> 01:22:31,530 | opening price. Now we're back inside this fair value gap. Now it's basically do or die, because we're inside of the breaker. here that would be a bearish |
| 482 | 01:22:31,530 --> 01:22:44,040 | breaker. So we have main threshold of that, which could be inversion. And we have the old Vega here. We want to see how respects that doesn't want to offer |
| 483 | 01:22:44,040 --> 01:22:47,340 | support, or does it go through it one more time and offer resistance |
| 484 | 01:22:49,020 --> 01:22:49,920 | to take this off here. |
| 485 | 01:22:58,170 --> 01:23:11,430 | Very, very, very difficult market conditions. I don't care who they are. I don't care what accolades they have behind their name. If any of the traders in the |
| 486 | 01:23:12,690 --> 01:23:23,340 | communities, whether it be ours or abroad, if they ever come out and say that these market conditions right now are easy. It's so easy. They're lying. And |
| 487 | 01:23:23,340 --> 01:23:31,890 | trust me they're lying. Anybody with real experience has been doing this for a long time. They understand that this is really difficult price action. It |
| 488 | 01:23:31,890 --> 01:23:39,510 | doesn't stay like this. But there are going to be periods in the future when they freeze up and starts moving around a bit more will enter another period |
| 489 | 01:23:39,540 --> 01:23:50,280 | where it's very difficult. And this is where the the legends shine. The people that know what they're doing, and how to navigate it. This is where they shine. |
| 490 | 01:23:50,910 --> 01:24:00,900 | The people that have just been doing it for a little while. Had potluck wins here near chance wins. Got lucky new beginning. They have no idea what's going |
| 491 | 01:24:00,900 --> 01:24:14,760 | on. They're gonna flounder, we're going to be reckless, over trade, do foolish stuff. And people that are boring. Okay, that's the key word boring. That is |
| 492 | 01:24:14,790 --> 01:24:21,450 | really consistent about what they're doing. They're not trying to be flashed into pain success stories overnight and trying to promote the get rich quick |
| 493 | 01:24:21,450 --> 01:24:32,040 | stuff. Generally, those types of people are going to be able to do well in these conditions because they know the dial back. dial back risk, dial back leverage |
| 494 | 01:24:32,190 --> 01:24:44,310 | dial back frequency. That means do less. Less in this environment is more because the chances of you doing something correctly, especially if you're new. |
| 495 | 01:24:46,110 --> 01:24:54,060 | It's probably slim to none. And then you compound that with once you do it and you do it incorrectly and you hurt yourself. You want to try to hurt and get it |
| 496 | 01:24:54,060 --> 01:25:02,460 | back right away. Well, you might be able to get lucky doing that. When it's a faster market that's trying to get somewhere that's obvious. but it's not that |
| 497 | 01:25:02,460 --> 01:25:13,710 | kind of marketing. Now. It's a lot of whipsawing consolidating, not making obvious runs. And it's not then changing anything. It's just, it's sloppy. It's |
| 498 | 01:25:13,710 --> 01:25:21,720 | just the market comes in these phases where it's like it does this sometimes. And then all sudden, some kind of event will free it up, and we'll be moving all |
| 499 | 01:25:21,720 --> 01:25:34,440 | around. And trading will become easier. If you have a losing trade, it's easy to mitigate that. It's easy to fix those, it is not easy to fix drawdown in these |
| 500 | 01:25:34,440 --> 01:25:45,120 | types of conditions. It's very, very difficult. And anyone who tells you otherwise is full of shit. I'm telling you 30 years doing it, I'm telling you, |
| 501 | 01:25:45,120 --> 01:25:55,950 | there ain't no body out there, that's going to tell you that this is a market right now. And it's easy. It's absolutely grinding people down. |
| 502 | 01:26:01,530 --> 01:26:05,490 | And you're new. And you're thinking, you should have learned how to do this already last week. |
| 503 | 01:26:06,990 --> 01:26:07,830 | Not realistic. |
| 504 | 01:26:14,820 --> 01:26:32,040 | My best students know when it's like this, to be careful to be almost still doing nothing waiting. Mark is gonna gyrate it's gonna move all around. But |
| 505 | 01:26:32,040 --> 01:26:41,850 | doesn't mean that you have to be a part of that just means that you have to exercise patience, self control. Because if you can't do those two things, the |
| 506 | 01:26:41,850 --> 01:26:50,340 | market will usher you out the door, and you're leaving without your money. You're leaving your account balance in the marketplace, and you're going home |
| 507 | 01:26:50,340 --> 01:27:04,590 | work. And you see all these, these success stories that are coming to you. And I have an interview I'm gonna put up tonight. I got three scheduled to do for next |
| 508 | 01:27:04,590 --> 01:27:12,300 | week. But they will all be released next week. Obviously, it's hard for me to find all the time to do all this stuff. My wife's asking me do things kids are |
| 509 | 01:27:12,300 --> 01:27:23,850 | asking me to do things and springs coming up. And we have travels. So I'll be doing the RV playlist, you can see when I'm on the move and what I use when I'm |
| 510 | 01:27:23,850 --> 01:27:39,870 | on, on the move in the RV, how my system looks compared to all the screens you've seen when I'm home. But don't look at these success stories. And think |
| 511 | 01:27:40,080 --> 01:27:50,490 | I'm gonna go out there and do that right now. Because I want to have an interview with ICT. I'm not that big of a deal. Okay. If you succeed, great, I |
| 512 | 01:27:50,490 --> 01:28:01,290 | want to talk to you, I want your story be seen and heard. But do not think I'm getting motivated by this. And right now think that the market is easy for you |
| 513 | 01:28:01,290 --> 01:28:13,770 | to go out there and do that it's not, I promise you, sincerely, right now is very, very difficult. Even for me, even for me, I'm used to seeing all kinds of |
| 514 | 01:28:13,770 --> 01:28:26,580 | moves up and down all day long. And I'm not, I'm not seeing it. Maybe one one relatively decent entry. And it's a lot of whipsaw calling in an event that goes |
| 515 | 01:28:26,580 --> 01:28:37,410 | to a level I would anticipate. But I wouldn't be willing to sit in. So if it's like that, when in doubt, stay out. It's a very simple rule. But in the |
| 516 | 01:28:37,410 --> 01:28:44,790 | beginning, in you're probably nodding your head, your head when I say this in the beginning or when you're new. When you're doubting it, you think, Oh, I |
| 517 | 01:28:44,790 --> 01:28:53,040 | gotta go in here and just overcome my fear. And just press the button. Well, play stupid games, win stupid prizes. And if you do that with your funded |
| 518 | 01:28:53,040 --> 01:28:59,340 | account or your live accounts, you found out that that's not the smartest thing in the world to be doing. You should have stuck to your conscience telling you, |
| 519 | 01:28:59,790 --> 01:29:07,380 | I really don't know what to expect. And I'm uncomfortable. And I don't have the wherewithal that just turn the charts off, which is what you should be doing on |
| 520 | 01:29:07,380 --> 01:29:18,120 | a day like this. Who cares where it goes, when it does, you would have never been able to be nimble enough to get in if it doesn't make a big move. So I |
| 521 | 01:29:18,120 --> 01:29:26,520 | teach with that perspective. I don't want you going into the marketplace thinking with a false sense of security, that you can just go out there and slay |
| 522 | 01:29:26,520 --> 01:29:44,340 | everything in a market like this. I know my limitations as a mentor, I know it. I don't have a student guide lecture. A teaching approach that my students can |
| 523 | 01:29:44,340 --> 01:29:54,750 | reach to that makes these environments easy to trade. But what they do have is lots of lectures around jawboning and beating this in their head saying, this is |
| 524 | 01:29:54,750 --> 01:30:03,450 | where you don't want to be trading. Can you recognize that? I mean for the folks that just started under my 2020 through mentorship, okay, can you see the |
| 525 | 01:30:03,450 --> 01:30:14,880 | difference? Can you feel the difference? Watching these candles paint like this? Versus when the markets really just liquidly moving up and down, it's gyrating, |
| 526 | 01:30:14,880 --> 01:30:24,180 | it's going to liquidity that's obvious to see. It's going to imbalances that's easy to see. It's easy. It's elongated, it's stretched out, it's moving around a |
| 527 | 01:30:24,180 --> 01:30:35,460 | lot of movement. You're not seeing that right now. You're seeing this. This is stagnant price action. You cannot look at this and think, Oh, this is exactly |
| 528 | 01:30:35,460 --> 01:30:44,460 | what I want to trade. You do that with this, you're losing your account. There's no easier way to give you a representation of what to avoid than seeing this. |
| 529 | 01:30:44,910 --> 01:30:54,360 | This is it. This is the this is the molasses swamp. Okay. Remember, children's game, I grew up playing a board game called candy lane. And I've used that |
| 530 | 01:30:54,360 --> 01:31:01,950 | expression when I'm talking about liquidity above relative equal highs and relatively equal lows. Well, in that board game, there's a little area called |
| 531 | 01:31:01,950 --> 01:31:10,170 | molasses swamp, or at least the old version does, I don't know what they've made it up be now. But it used to be molasses swamp, if you ended up in that you were |
| 532 | 01:31:10,170 --> 01:31:20,490 | stuck there. Well, this is what this is like you're in quicksand. And the more you do to try to get out of struggling, sinking in quicksand, it makes it worse |
| 533 | 01:31:20,490 --> 01:31:30,450 | and you sink, that's your account going lower. So when you have conditions like this, books don't do enough focus on telling you books don't do enough to teach |
| 534 | 01:31:30,450 --> 01:31:40,380 | this mindset. When you see things like this, there hasn't been a book out there that I've ever bought, or even read, and I have over 2000 of them. They never |
| 535 | 01:31:40,800 --> 01:31:49,170 | talk about these things. Because they're trying to promote an idea of you getting into something, not avoiding trading, the whole idea of selling the |
| 536 | 01:31:49,170 --> 01:31:58,230 | book, the course, the authorship of something, that they knew how to get in a move that works. But they don't know how to avoid the moves that blow their |
| 537 | 01:31:58,230 --> 01:32:07,680 | account that draw them down, they are struggling points. I've been around here long enough to know what that is. And I know how to communicate it. I know how |
| 538 | 01:32:07,680 --> 01:32:14,490 | to show it to my students and the ones that have gotten it. They don't blow their accounts, they don't lose their funded accounts, they don't do those |
| 539 | 01:32:14,490 --> 01:32:23,190 | reckless things. They see this and they say, okay, you know what, it's a lovely day outside, even if it's raining, I'm gonna go do something else. But you don't |
| 540 | 01:32:23,190 --> 01:32:34,470 | have that when you're new, you feel like you gotta be doing it, you got to push the button, you got to trade. Watching the dollar index, it's still ranging |
| 541 | 01:32:34,860 --> 01:32:39,300 | between one or 220 and one or 210. Just really not doing a whole lot. |
| 542 | 01:32:44,760 --> 01:33:00,300 | Now, let me let me make an argument for something here. In a day like this, I would favor the afternoon session. It might do something in here, that's |
| 543 | 01:33:00,300 --> 01:33:07,980 | estimated, and you'll say, but you didn't do that. That's wonderful, I don't care. You're welcome to have your opinion. When you're new, it's easy to see |
| 544 | 01:33:08,310 --> 01:33:15,000 | four handle runs. And think what you know, that was a moment here, I thought it was gonna go down here. And he didn't even talk about that you didn't trade it. |
| 545 | 01:33:15,690 --> 01:33:25,860 | You didn't put a stop loss and manage the risk in it. You're talking about what you saw happening. I've been calling a move of in communism and calling it in |
| 546 | 01:33:25,860 --> 01:33:37,710 | these environments. That's, that's fine. You can call in paper, trade and tape read all you want. That's the most of it. That's all you shouldn't be doing. You |
| 547 | 01:33:37,710 --> 01:33:44,340 | shouldn't be in here pushing a button on an environment like this. Because the risk is undefined. What are you going to, we're going to limit your risk. |
| 548 | 01:33:46,050 --> 01:33:58,200 | Where's the risk low and defined? where it makes sense? Where's the next draw on liquidity? I don't know. What do you say? What did he what's the calendar? I |
| 549 | 01:33:58,200 --> 01:34:08,100 | gotta write it down ICT on Western this said he doesn't know. Right now. It's not the first time I've said that. I don't know where it's gonna go to next. So |
| 550 | 01:34:08,100 --> 01:34:14,940 | if I don't know where the next draw on liquidity is how the hell do you think you're gonna know it? Well, that's arrogant. Well, if you're here trying to |
| 551 | 01:34:14,940 --> 01:34:27,690 | learn from me, how are you going to know? If you're right, it was luck. If you're wrong, it's regret. Either way, it's something to be avoided. There's |
| 552 | 01:34:27,690 --> 01:34:35,280 | nothing to frame this in high probability that it's going to go higher or lower. I don't know if it's going to take out the 4071 quarter, I'm sorry, in three |
| 553 | 01:34:35,280 --> 01:34:43,800 | quarters level down here where the sell side is. I'd like to see it. I'd like to see the dollar go up to the level I told you. If it goes down here, if it was |
| 554 | 01:34:43,800 --> 01:34:54,990 | the do that during the livestream, it would still be me saying that would be a tree that I wouldn't be in. But you would log it as experience. It can run up |
| 555 | 01:34:54,990 --> 01:35:10,890 | here and take out 4090 and go to 4104 I won't be in it. I'm not going to trade it. I won't participate in it. Because it's showing me every reason why I should |
| 556 | 01:35:10,890 --> 01:35:20,250 | not be touching it. And again, for the people that are new that don't know what that really means is it's not respecting anything. It's this chopping around |
| 557 | 01:35:20,280 --> 01:35:30,450 | sideways. And I promise you, I promise you, you go on YouTube, anybody that's live streaming, and you're doing this market here, they're getting slapped up |
| 558 | 01:35:30,450 --> 01:35:42,300 | and chopped up. And probably cussing, ranting and raving or killed your live stream. Regret navan, one out here. I told you this morning, that we would have |
| 559 | 01:35:42,300 --> 01:35:54,810 | what a tough session because the move was delivered before. And I told you where it was going was eight handles nine handles almost 10 handles this morning |
| 560 | 01:35:54,810 --> 01:36:06,030 | before the news even came out a 30. If the moves are going to be clean like that in the early session, and you reach targets, like I've explained on a daily |
| 561 | 01:36:06,030 --> 01:36:17,670 | chart, we will have this, this is consolidation, potentially rolling into seek and destroy. So you can destroy is a day where you will not make money, you'll |
| 562 | 01:36:17,670 --> 01:36:25,860 | go long get stopped out, okay, go short get stopped out. Okay, I'm wrong, I know where I'm going. Now, let's go long, and you get stopped out again. And then at |
| 563 | 01:36:25,860 --> 01:36:35,550 | that moment where you've done lost too much, because you used more leverage to get back your little paper cut losses, you're afraid to get into the next one. |
| 564 | 01:36:35,670 --> 01:36:43,470 | And that's the one that you don't enter. And it's parabolic and it rips the face off of everyone else, but you weren't in on it. And it leaves you feeling |
| 565 | 01:36:43,470 --> 01:36:57,300 | demoralized, fallen victim to that a lot as a 20 year old. And I know where they're forming now. And I teach it's in the core content, trade only YouTube |
| 566 | 01:36:57,300 --> 01:37:05,460 | channel. It's all part of my language. But just because you want that videos, I mean, you know how to do it right away. You have to be in a mentorship like |
| 567 | 01:37:05,460 --> 01:37:16,140 | this, where it can be explained beforehand. What are you expecting? What do you expect ICT? What do you think the markets going to do? I've already taught you |
| 568 | 01:37:16,140 --> 01:37:23,850 | how to make money. I've already taught you how to be precise about your entries. How to find your targets that's already on my YouTube channel. It's been up |
| 569 | 01:37:23,850 --> 01:37:36,810 | there. It's been up there. The reason why you failed is because you're pushing the button in environments like this. This is what's done you in not my |
| 570 | 01:37:36,810 --> 01:37:48,360 | concepts. It's the market that isn't going to move for anyone, not even for me. So Am I foolish? To say I have really strong technical tools and concepts. I'm |
| 571 | 01:37:48,360 --> 01:37:57,600 | the market maker beast out there. Look at me. I'm Mr. Everything. And I'm going to be able to do something in this. Hell no, it ain't doing anything. It's not |
| 572 | 01:37:57,600 --> 01:38:09,720 | doing anything but hurting people. So I know because of 30 years having done this, I knew where I hurt myself. And I don't need to walk down that road and |
| 573 | 01:38:09,720 --> 01:38:17,730 | had my arm ripped off by that pit bull I knew is sitting there waiting for me to pass by it again. But I've done it 95 Other times, I need to go there on a 96 |
| 574 | 01:38:17,730 --> 01:38:28,620 | time to know that. And that's that my story. I pick that up from Larry Williams. This works. That analogy worked. It made sense to me. But how many times do you |
| 575 | 01:38:28,620 --> 01:38:39,690 | have to see a questionable market condition? And you think I see if you're right. Yeah, I see relative equal lows. That's what my son seen. Any arm wrestle |
| 576 | 01:38:39,690 --> 01:38:52,740 | did an arm wrestle did an arm wrestle did just let me do it that just let me do it. Okay, your money but in every time. |
| 577 | 01:38:57,270 --> 01:39:02,130 | autofilled autofilled looks at me |
| 578 | 01:39:04,020 --> 01:39:16,110 | anything as much as I want to say it. And I ain't saying I told you. But he has to feel that pain. He has to feel that pain. So I'm done trying to prevent it. |
| 579 | 01:39:16,530 --> 01:39:30,660 | And I tried my best to help him avoid it. But we have been calling this thing on premium arrays. And if you fight that you're literally playing Russian roulette |
| 580 | 01:39:31,950 --> 01:39:46,140 | with five bullets in six chambers. What's the what's the odds of you succeeding and making them out alive? Slim to none. And, unfortunately, the human body, the |
| 581 | 01:39:46,140 --> 01:39:57,660 | human mind, the psyche. Feels like they have to be able to do it themselves entirely like most of everybody that gets into trading. Oh yeah. So this guy, |
| 582 | 01:39:57,660 --> 01:40:04,950 | man. He's got this YouTube channel he talks about these things. that you can join me by the Otterbox they write news about robots Good grief. You gotta think |
| 583 | 01:40:04,950 --> 01:40:17,580 | you rush to get funded accounts about live accounts, the the whole show over leverage little account balances. And you discover you're trying to do something |
| 584 | 01:40:17,580 --> 01:40:29,820 | that you don't know how to do. And you rushed into a condition with real risk and you weren't prepared. And then that toxic loser cycle begins. You don't |
| 585 | 01:40:29,820 --> 01:40:41,310 | realize it. But so many people have gone that route. And it's toxic. It makes you doubt everything. You become a troll. You ain't making any money, but you're |
| 586 | 01:40:41,310 --> 01:40:54,270 | going blind, pretend you are. And you talk about everybody else. But you can't do anything. And I've seen people go to the extreme, and they check out of this |
| 587 | 01:40:54,270 --> 01:41:07,830 | world. That's how bad these things can hurt you. And I'm doing everything I can. Like, I don't know another way to talk about how to avoid these types of things. |
| 588 | 01:41:08,730 --> 01:41:19,170 | I mean, look at it. Look what it's done. I sat here with the entire way beyond what I wanted to spend time with you. I'm trying to hammer it down, let you know |
| 589 | 01:41:19,170 --> 01:41:29,340 | that we can see when it's going to be a good day. Okay, as a community, I'm guiding all of you. I know when the salad days are there when it's going to be |
| 590 | 01:41:29,340 --> 01:41:43,200 | easy trading. I also know where it's going to be difficult even for me. And when I say that, guess what that means? Don't open your Live account. Don't just |
| 591 | 01:41:43,200 --> 01:41:52,890 | because I'm live streaming does not mean okay, it's casino time. Let's go. I trust ICT is always right looking at he's always right. I'm right today. It's |
| 592 | 01:41:52,890 --> 01:42:01,590 | going to be ugly day. Tough morning. I showed you the silver bullet trade. That was wrong with the sell side. There's the offered five handles. That's the |
| 593 | 01:42:01,590 --> 01:42:10,080 | rules. That's it. That's it. That's that's the thing that you're looking for as a trader, but you don't want to accept it because you want 50 handles on or |
| 594 | 01:42:10,080 --> 01:42:25,170 | handles 20 to 20 are 50 our trades are that ain't success. Let me tell you something. Five handles a day. I don't care how you are in money. That's good |
| 595 | 01:42:25,170 --> 01:42:36,240 | money. That's good money. If you can consistently do that every single day and be content with indice Stop. Who says you have to trade more? Who says you ever |
| 596 | 01:42:36,240 --> 01:42:48,510 | have to do anything beyond that? If that's all you ever arrive at, under my tutelage. If that's all you could get to, that's not failure, you're doing way |
| 597 | 01:42:48,510 --> 01:42:57,570 | better than 99.999% of everybody else. Because they have no idea what they're looking for. They're reacting to price, they're waiting on some kind of |
| 598 | 01:42:57,570 --> 01:43:06,210 | indicator to tell them it's doing something. When we know when trades going to form, it's the people that use indicators, what time is that indicator gonna |
| 599 | 01:43:06,210 --> 01:43:14,340 | give you a buy or sell signal and laugh, because they're not gonna be able to tell you, they're never going to be able to tell you that. But we have a |
| 600 | 01:43:14,340 --> 01:43:22,890 | specific element of time that's advantageous to us, we know what we're looking for. And that should be encouraging. It should really encourage you |
| 601 | 01:43:27,930 --> 01:43:39,120 | when's the indicator gonna give you your buy or sell I wasted years trying to crack that. And there's nothing in that. So I've reverted back to what open high |
| 602 | 01:43:39,120 --> 01:43:52,020 | low and close with time to these things occur. And I went through all kinds of markets all kinds of data I spent so much money on every aspect of data studying |
| 603 | 01:43:52,020 --> 01:44:03,600 | and studying and studying and looking all moves most of you would never do that because you want to do the next move I got time for that ICT nobody got time for |
| 604 | 01:44:03,600 --> 01:44:21,060 | that ICT we got to be getting funding. We got cars the rent, villas, the rent and say we live there on social media I'd like to see it get up here in 4089 and |
| 605 | 01:44:21,060 --> 01:44:21,720 | a quarter level |
| 606 | 01:44:24,120 --> 01:44:25,770 | but that might be asking too much of it today. |
| 607 | 01:44:29,400 --> 01:44:43,860 | So think about this. Imagine if I was to say on social media, like on Twitter this morning say Look man, I've always it's gonna be easy today. Get ready. Back |
| 608 | 01:44:43,860 --> 01:45:01,020 | the truck up. We're gonna rob the banks today. And then it did this. You might not make fun of me like some people try to do foolishly But you'd be the outing. |
| 609 | 01:45:02,430 --> 01:45:12,330 | Like he said, it's gonna be a real easy day. Look at it this was like crummy. If he knew that an algorithm than he should have expected it to be like this. Now |
| 610 | 01:45:12,330 --> 01:45:24,000 | contrary to that idea. This morning, I said that we're going to have a very tough morning. Lower your expectations. Now my long term students know exactly |
| 611 | 01:45:24,000 --> 01:45:37,830 | what that means. Chop, slop. When you want the salad days where you want to get in there and bebop, easy runs easy targets easy this fast money. Easy, easy, |
| 612 | 01:45:37,830 --> 01:45:48,630 | easy. That's common. But it ain't happening yet. And you have to submit the time. So you're taking your impulsiveness about needing to make more money to |
| 613 | 01:45:48,630 --> 01:45:58,260 | keep up with the social media people you're trying to keep up with. And that's the wrong way of doing it. You're taking that impulsiveness that you have to |
| 614 | 01:45:58,260 --> 01:46:07,200 | feel like you've arrived, you got to find significance on your social media equity curve. And the only way you can do that is by what? Making money finding |
| 615 | 01:46:07,200 --> 01:46:18,840 | trades. And you're finding out that it's very difficult right now. And guess what? I'm the type of guy to tell you, it's hard for everybody. And when we can |
| 616 | 01:46:18,840 --> 01:46:27,690 | anticipate these things being difficult, it's not a guess. These things repeat these rules are there for you to anticipate when it's going to be hard. And |
| 617 | 01:46:27,690 --> 01:46:37,350 | those are the times when you don't risk a lot or don't trade at all. We're in this case, what we do is we anticipate the morning is going to be sloppy. Let it |
| 618 | 01:46:37,350 --> 01:46:47,190 | go and do whatever it's going to do. Who cares? I promise you, you probably know five people online that are kicking themselves because they went in today. I |
| 619 | 01:46:47,190 --> 01:46:55,140 | promise you, I promise you if they're being honest, you know at least five people. And you probably are following people that are complaining right now. |
| 620 | 01:46:55,350 --> 01:47:10,200 | Man, it's the market sucks. I got chopped up, I got beat up. In here we are in good hands. This is the stuff that should be in books. But isn't. This is the |
| 621 | 01:47:10,200 --> 01:47:22,410 | stuff that should be in mentorships but isn't outside of money. You can't make money long term. If you blow it all on days like this. Everybody blows their |
| 622 | 01:47:22,410 --> 01:47:33,600 | account on a one day event. One day, something happens in that one day that completely derails you. Either all the equity is blown in that one day. Or it |
| 623 | 01:47:33,600 --> 01:47:45,270 | starts that chain of reactions over and over and over again. Now you're caught up in a loser cycle. But predominantly, it's a day like this, that you think, |
| 624 | 01:47:45,270 --> 01:47:50,250 | okay, it's gonna go up? No, it's gonna go down. Okay, that's gonna go up till now, you're not going to use a stop, you're gonna over leverage going to trade |
| 625 | 01:47:50,250 --> 01:47:59,670 | bigger than last time because you only need a small little move to get back what you just lost on in that small little move becomes a death by 1000 paper cuts? |
| 626 | 01:48:02,460 --> 01:48:16,080 | Yes. Yes, it will happen to you. And I'm doing everything I can to teach you how to avoid that. And some of you just want that war scar. Like, it's a badge of |
| 627 | 01:48:16,080 --> 01:48:26,580 | honor. That Brotherhood is something I wish I wasn't a part of. I wish I could have avoided it. I wish I could have had someone like me talking to you like |
| 628 | 01:48:26,580 --> 01:48:35,910 | this, showing you in a chart real time before it happens. It's gonna be hard, it's gonna be struggle. It is what it is. Because I wouldn't have blown as many |
| 629 | 01:48:35,910 --> 01:48:47,100 | accounts as I did when I was a young man, I would have not had all the adversities, and fear of never being able to do it, suffering from the losses, |
| 630 | 01:48:47,730 --> 01:48:59,040 | stress, trying to earn all back to get another account funded. That stuff that's easily avoidable. Like you have all the advantages. Now. You this generation, |
| 631 | 01:48:59,520 --> 01:49:08,160 | you have all the advantages. But you don't see it like that. Because you're spoiled. Everything happens real quick on a smartphone. So therefore, you think |
| 632 | 01:49:08,190 --> 01:49:15,960 | everybody owes you something immediately. And you should have never had any hardship. And you think it ever is going to be easy for you. Well, welcome to |
| 633 | 01:49:15,960 --> 01:49:27,210 | the reality. Some days in the marketplace. It's impossible for you to make money. And so chapter two is going to be in my book. The days that you cannot |
| 634 | 01:49:27,210 --> 01:49:37,260 | make money and nobody else wants to write it, I'm going to do it. That's the secret. That's the thing that keeps people in this business long enough to let |
| 635 | 01:49:37,260 --> 01:49:44,670 | their even ridiculous ideas hopefully paying out if they are good fund managers. If they are good money managers, flipping a quarter can be profitable |
| 636 | 01:49:51,480 --> 01:49:53,160 | but how do they hurt themselves? |
| 637 | 01:49:55,380 --> 01:50:04,680 | How will you hurt yourself? You're gonna push hard in this type of climate right here. You're going to push real, real hard. But it's going to finally move. |
| 638 | 01:50:05,310 --> 01:50:14,280 | Really? How do you know that? Because I don't. And don't make me think well, because you don't know doesn't mean I don't know, or somebody else doesn't know, |
| 639 | 01:50:15,000 --> 01:50:25,920 | if they know how to trade this environment right here. And they're profitable, and he had not drawn down significantly, I will be their student. Go find them. |
| 640 | 01:50:27,090 --> 01:50:33,990 | They're not out there, they're getting chopped up. They're going to show you something after the fact. They're not going to be uptight, this is going to act |
| 641 | 01:50:33,990 --> 01:50:53,040 | like this and behave like this. I really liked that. They have a gap on the dollar index I mentioned earlier. I see dollar going up there. And then that |
| 642 | 01:50:53,040 --> 01:51:06,450 | sell side at 7175 years. I see both of those things happen. That's my gun to my head. Idea going into the afternoon. Will it happen this morning before lunch? |
| 643 | 01:51:07,170 --> 01:51:19,170 | begins at noon? I don't know. Because I don't know. Am I interested? How's that for logic? How liberating is that? I don't know. So therefore, I'm gonna go take |
| 644 | 01:51:19,290 --> 01:51:27,540 | time away from charts and spin it with my wife, I'm gonna go have lunch with my wife. How's that feel? It feels wonderful for me. Because I don't feel like I |
| 645 | 01:51:27,540 --> 01:51:34,440 | have to be chained to this charts, like you do as a new trader, new student, you think, Oh, he's gonna leave and the big moves gonna happen. There might be a big |
| 646 | 01:51:34,440 --> 01:51:42,600 | move early. Guess what, I don't care. Because I know how to find the easy days. I know when to anticipate the easy days. And I know how to trade those easy |
| 647 | 01:51:42,600 --> 01:51:55,110 | days. You can see it, you've already seen lots of it already. But you can't learn properly, at least for me, without me taking you in these environments |
| 648 | 01:51:55,110 --> 01:52:07,620 | like this. And it sucks that you want to see big runs and entry called and targets hitting and just easy fast runs? Well, I can't materialize that. If the |
| 649 | 01:52:07,620 --> 01:52:17,220 | market is going to be held in this. It's going to be held in this. You can't force it. I can't force it. In it's a hard wrestling match in the beginning |
| 650 | 01:52:17,220 --> 01:52:27,810 | because you feel like you just gotta stay in front of the charts. No, you don't. I'm telling you, you got permission, turn them off. There's far better days out |
| 651 | 01:52:27,810 --> 01:52:38,220 | there. In your career, this one day, you're trying to make something happen in this and I do so much discussions in my Twitter spaces. And I go off the rails, |
| 652 | 01:52:38,760 --> 01:52:46,410 | because I'm animated because I remember how frustrating it was for me, forcing trying to force something in this environment, when it does things like this. |
| 653 | 01:52:47,460 --> 01:52:56,010 | Were nothing none of my PD arrays are being respected. None of them. How do I know it's not a good day trade? Because none of my PD arrays are performing like |
| 654 | 01:52:56,010 --> 01:53:04,260 | I want them to. So how many does it take for me to lose faith in IDEA three of them? If three of them fail? I'm not interested. It's happening consistently all |
| 655 | 01:53:04,260 --> 01:53:14,520 | day today. So what makes you think that I should be thinking, Oh, well, now it's really going to run? You see that there's logic behind that. That's not |
| 656 | 01:53:14,520 --> 01:53:23,940 | ambiguous. It's very specific. It's a measurable thing that you can see when you look at your charts. Is it continuously giving you feedback that the order flow |
| 657 | 01:53:23,940 --> 01:53:32,760 | is bullish? Or is it bearish? If it's not giving you continuous ongoing feedback that you are on side with your expectations, that means it's not performing like |
| 658 | 01:53:32,760 --> 01:53:47,400 | you want it to stay out. I promise you, if you just listen to me, you will not hurt yourself. You won't, you'll be able to stay in the game long enough. When |
| 659 | 01:53:47,400 --> 01:53:56,430 | we have these easy days and they are coming folks, you just gotta give it time, the market will not stay like this. It will unravel, boom, big, big, big, big |
| 660 | 01:53:56,430 --> 01:54:06,840 | moves will be coming fast market moves, large ranges that are sustained. That's coming. But if you beat yourself up in these conditions like this, you're gonna |
| 661 | 01:54:06,840 --> 01:54:15,000 | be afraid to engage. When it's like that. When you're supposed to be engaging, you'll be fearful because you beat yourself up like this. And your subconscious |
| 662 | 01:54:15,000 --> 01:54:23,610 | has retained all these bad experiences. And now you're afraid. Now you have scar tissue that doesn't have elasticity. You gotta stay limber. |
| 663 | 01:54:28,980 --> 01:54:39,600 | When a downturn is there, we're Bloomberg. I'm telling you that even exists, but isn't at this point. Here you go. You got to stay nimble and flexible. And you |
| 664 | 01:54:39,600 --> 01:54:49,770 | have to be willing to cut bait on days like this cut bait means you're done. You're not going to pursue anything you're not looking to do you have a trade. |
| 665 | 01:54:50,040 --> 01:54:58,620 | You get out of it, regardless of wherever it is. You just let go of it. And then come back. Another day. Tomorrow. It might be better this afternoon it might be |
| 666 | 01:54:58,620 --> 01:55:11,220 | better. And that's how it treat this. When it's like this, it's okay. I have a divided day. So the am session blows, no problem. I'm done. I'll come back at 15 |
| 667 | 01:55:11,220 --> 01:55:18,600 | minutes, the two New York local time. And I'll study and look at the price. If it doesn't show me anything that I liked by 230. I'm not spending the rest of |
| 668 | 01:55:18,600 --> 01:55:26,880 | the day and not even the last hour. That's the procedure I follow. How hard is that? It's pretty simple, isn't it? It helps me manage my day. It helps me |
| 669 | 01:55:26,880 --> 01:55:36,120 | manage my time. And if you're going to be a trader, it helps you manage your business. You don't want to be just because there's market hours open. You don't |
| 670 | 01:55:36,120 --> 01:55:43,260 | want to be sitting here. plunking yourself down in front of the charts because the longer you sit in front of them, the more convinced that you see these |
| 671 | 01:55:43,260 --> 01:55:56,760 | inkblots as a Rorschach that tells you to get in. And you regret it all the time. I promise you, if you've blown accounts before, it's been like this, |
| 672 | 01:55:57,090 --> 01:56:07,890 | you've done this to yourself in these environments. So I know it's probably not a sexy livestream, it's probably not one of those feel good moment days where |
| 673 | 01:56:07,920 --> 01:56:18,690 | like, Wow, man, this is freaking awesome. It's great. But this is the stuff I wanted to learn. I'm telling you, I would have paid money to sit with someone |
| 674 | 01:56:18,720 --> 01:56:25,830 | explained these types of conditions and how to avoid them and when to anticipate them. Because I couldn't see them coming. I just felt victim to them all the |
| 675 | 01:56:25,830 --> 01:56:35,190 | time. And when you lose money, and you lose money, and you lose money, and your obsessively compulsive, one of two things are going to happen, you're going to |
| 676 | 01:56:35,190 --> 01:56:46,650 | check out permanently. And I need me to do that. Or you're going to dig your heels in and say dammit, I will crack this shit. And I'm going to figure it out. |
| 677 | 01:56:47,430 --> 01:57:03,000 | And that's what my life was. That's how you're hearing me now. All the bad things made me who I am. All that rough stuff that beat me up, ground me down. I |
| 678 | 01:57:03,000 --> 01:57:11,910 | learned from that to become where I am right now. And everybody that makes money with the stuff that I've taught their benefactors to the things that I had to |
| 679 | 01:57:11,910 --> 01:57:22,380 | endure. And that's why I get pissed off when people try to teach it don't give me credit, because you motherfuckers don't deserve it. So hopefully tomorrow |
| 680 | 01:57:22,380 --> 01:57:32,970 | when we do our next live stream, I'll be with you again at 915. And we'll try to do the exercise again, between 10 o'clock and nine o'clock so that we can see |
| 681 | 01:57:33,540 --> 01:57:42,720 | does in fact, the silver bullet exists on Friday. We have some news again tomorrow. So that might move around a little bit as well. But your homework |
| 682 | 01:57:42,720 --> 01:57:52,080 | assignment for today is to study and see if we move outside of this range, we got to get below significantly below this low and below this fear of a gap or |
| 683 | 01:57:52,080 --> 01:58:07,410 | above the high of the new week opening gap. Okay, if if we were to expand above the new week opening gap, I'm looking for 40 104. Okay, so for 104. If we get |
| 684 | 01:58:07,410 --> 01:58:13,410 | above the new week open again, it doesn't mean just trading above it, and therefore it's going there, it needs to trade above it, treat it as support and |
| 685 | 01:58:13,470 --> 01:58:23,280 | run higher. If it does that, I would expect 41 04 as a draw on liquidity for the pm session. If we break below the fair pay gap here, then I think that we're |
| 686 | 01:58:23,280 --> 01:58:34,470 | going to gravitate down to the sell side over here, not just here. That's my expectation. And if I don't see things that would support that idea, before 230, |
| 687 | 01:58:34,530 --> 01:58:42,480 | New York local time, I'm not doing anything in the last hour trading. So there's that's what I'm doing. That's what I'm expecting. That's how I see it got into |
| 688 | 01:58:42,480 --> 01:58:53,880 | my head. Now you know what I'm thinking? I'm not touching it right here. Okay. So hopefully you got something out of this hopefully inspired you to trust |
| 689 | 01:58:53,880 --> 01:59:03,720 | yourself and give yourself a little bit more time knowing that these days can be predicted and not fall victim to them. You saw the silver bullet idea pan out it |
| 690 | 01:59:03,720 --> 01:59:09,540 | was better than five handles and it didn't have to be correct about where I thought it was going to go to the sell side sell side as I talked many times |
| 691 | 01:59:09,540 --> 01:59:19,380 | before, they are points of reference where the market can gravitate to it's not it has to go there. It can go there later on in the day. That's when you're |
| 692 | 01:59:19,380 --> 01:59:27,120 | right. Okay, but you don't need to be right in your trade. You need to be profitable. And you need to be able to get out when it gives you five handles. |
| 693 | 01:59:28,320 --> 01:59:36,090 | It's easy, folks, but everybody else is trying to say it's complicated. It's not complicated. It's very simple rule based ideas. But you have to be diligent, you |
| 694 | 01:59:36,090 --> 01:59:44,190 | have to have the rules written out, understood, known and stick to them. Then, if you stick to them, it isn't hard. It isn't complicated. But when you deviate |
| 695 | 01:59:44,190 --> 01:59:53,160 | outside of them and go against what I'm suggesting as a bias, then obviously it is hard, then this complicated, but I'm not complicated it when you go against |
| 696 | 01:59:53,160 --> 02:00:00,630 | what I'm suggesting the markets likely to do. So until I talk to you tomorrow, enjoy the rest of your day. Be Safe |