ICT YT - 2023-03-28 - ICT Emini SP500 Review - March 27 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-04-03 12:03
Outline
00:15 - E-Mini S&P Futures for June 2023.
02:29 - Looking at the 15 minute time frame.
05:00 - What’s going on in the market.
07:11 - What is the opening range gap?
09:18 - Back-testing your ideas.
11:26 - The market trades into the opening range and consolidates.
13:21 - Market structure after one o’clock.
15:03 - Last hour of trading for the New York pm session.
17:11 - Volume imbalance and a bearish breaker.
Transcript
| 1 | 00:00:15,719 --> 00:00:28,109 | ICT: Good evening folks. Taking a look at the E Mini s&p futures contracts for June 2023 is our daily chart here. And I want to cover some of the points I'll |
| 2 | 00:00:28,109 --> 00:00:32,519 | be looking for tomorrow in terms of key levels and areas of interest. |
| 3 | 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:52,440 | Alright, so here is the premium, fair value gaps aside unbalanced by sudden efficiency or city and consequent encouragement premium wick high midpoint level |
| 4 | 00:00:52,440 --> 00:01:03,600 | there. The imbalance here, which is a sippy essentially is equilibrium between this high and that low. So we have that noted here and just in a light gray |
| 5 | 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:16,770 | area. Discount consequent encouragement of this wick. So midpoint of that that's what's annotated. And the very gap over here because we cut through candles, |
| 6 | 00:01:16,770 --> 00:01:24,180 | we're not supplying to man, this level is still going to be useful going forward, just as well as this one as well. |
| 7 | 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:38,910 | Dropping down into the hourly chart here you can see the buyside liquidity pool have an interest in net tomorrow. We have a breaker here have a low high lower |
| 8 | 00:01:38,910 --> 00:01:54,150 | low, getting off of that old imbalance on the daily chart, the discount fair value gap. Breaker extended through and then we have a small little fair value |
| 9 | 00:01:54,150 --> 00:02:03,450 | gap in the form of Sanibel. So sudden efficiency to dancy consequent encroachment and also the breaker there prior to rallying up taking out short |
| 10 | 00:02:03,450 --> 00:02:16,320 | term, relative equal highs, which is by side liquidity market trades back down in to the high of the very gap here. And basically just consolidates into the |
| 11 | 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:23,040 | close for today. So these levels, I'll be having an interest in that going forward into tomorrow. |
| 12 | 00:02:29,189 --> 00:02:36,779 | The 15 minute time frame, you can see that a bicep luckily Paul here as I mentioned, relative equal highs, the market traded above that. And then once |
| 13 | 00:02:36,779 --> 00:02:51,959 | more here we talked about that live on Twitter, looking at 4034 by side and inside of that run from high, low high or high down close candle here. That's |
| 14 | 00:02:51,959 --> 00:03:02,969 | your bearish breaker extend that forward. You see in the last hour, we'll take a closer look at that as well. But we'll roll it back into the morning session |
| 15 | 00:03:02,969 --> 00:03:16,109 | right after the 930 opening. Note this discount wick consequent encouragement, beautiful delivery there. And again, the fair value gap that was on the hourly |
| 16 | 00:03:16,109 --> 00:03:27,839 | chart doesn't look so much like an imbalance on the Fatima timeframe. But we work top down and we can see how we touch that bullish breaker here. Again, go |
| 17 | 00:03:27,839 --> 00:03:38,159 | back through the video, screenshot your charts from the video playback and transpose that to your own charts. And then we will see what it is that I'm |
| 18 | 00:03:38,159 --> 00:03:46,769 | showing you here will be much more meaningful. Should you do it on your charts not just looking at mine, especially by watching tomorrow's live price action. |
| 19 | 00:03:52,379 --> 00:04:05,669 | Five minute chart here. opening price right here midnight. That's this level here. So New York midnight opening price ran above by side here and I mentioned |
| 20 | 00:04:05,729 --> 00:04:17,639 | we will be looking for 4034 by side. It rallied up into that here. All of this is Judas swing. We're moving above the New York midnight opening candle opening |
| 21 | 00:04:17,639 --> 00:04:30,959 | price rallies up by side. Then we're looking for 4018 sell side which is below this low here. All this back and forth price action finally giving up the ghost |
| 22 | 00:04:31,499 --> 00:04:42,989 | and trading back now into old order flow in the form of that discount wick consequent encouragement and we're going to dig into a little bit more detail. |
| 23 | 00:04:43,559 --> 00:04:50,549 | And again you can see the breaker extended throughout the day to the last hour of trading which was influential once more there |
| 24 | 00:04:55,769 --> 00:05:05,489 | all right, getting down to the brass tacks have a one minute chart here. imbalance here. Extend that through again, because we're not supplying demand, |
| 25 | 00:05:05,489 --> 00:05:18,749 | we cut through candles that range, our projected forward and show that on Twitter today as well. We talked about how 4034 buyside would be in contention. |
| 26 | 00:05:19,889 --> 00:05:30,509 | And volume imbalance, I shared this on Twitter as well. Right here we were looking for 4034 by side. So really nice run up into that four or five handle |
| 27 | 00:05:30,509 --> 00:05:44,399 | run, then stopped dead in its tracks at the macro at 950, which is the high candle here to 1010. So that's our first macro after the opening bell at 930. |
| 28 | 00:05:44,729 --> 00:05:56,519 | Algorithmic delivery takes it right into the buy side. And then at that time, we took our attention to 4018 sell side, the market trades back down, works inside |
| 29 | 00:05:56,519 --> 00:06:09,509 | that old imbalance we cut through candles and there's another volume imbalance. Right here again, draw that out in time. It has resistance now trade softer. |
| 30 | 00:06:09,569 --> 00:06:18,689 | Another imbalance. I mentioned this real time in Twitter as well, by the account was more or less respected majority of that range. And then we had this one more |
| 31 | 00:06:18,689 --> 00:06:32,039 | little return backup into the original imbalance I mentioned here inside of that bearish breaker. Okay, so again, all of this may be confusing if you're just |
| 32 | 00:06:32,039 --> 00:06:39,509 | casually watching and you're really trying to see where these levels are derived from. And not transposing them on your own charts, I promise you you're wasting |
| 33 | 00:06:39,509 --> 00:06:46,529 | your time, you have to do the work of taking the information placing on your charts, and then cycling through top down top down meaning from daily chart to |
| 34 | 00:06:46,529 --> 00:06:55,799 | hourly chart to 15 minute timeframe to five minute to now one minute. So the market sells off here attacks the sell side there for another five handles. So |
| 35 | 00:06:55,799 --> 00:07:04,379 | we had five in a run there and a five handle run there. So it's 10 handles that mentioned live on Twitter as delivered, and then I said okay, I'm done, I'm |
| 36 | 00:07:04,379 --> 00:07:16,109 | gonna take my attention away from the charts, trades back up into the imbalance here. So that will be an optimal trade entry. And also returned back into a fair |
| 37 | 00:07:16,109 --> 00:07:26,519 | value gap. market sells off institutional order flow entry Joe, inside this area here doesn't fill in that gap. In other words, the market aggressively trades |
| 38 | 00:07:26,699 --> 00:07:36,869 | lower, we have this wick in here. Okay, so it's the discount wick before trading down to opening range gap low. And I mentioned this on Twitter as well, I showed |
| 39 | 00:07:36,869 --> 00:07:47,879 | you that chart, how to derive that information. And that comes back up hit set beautifully. That's algorithmic price delivery. sells off once more it goes down |
| 40 | 00:07:47,879 --> 00:08:00,179 | into the opening range gap up. And then ultimately later on trades down into that old discount wick consequent encouragement which is right here. And the |
| 41 | 00:08:00,179 --> 00:08:09,089 | current new week opening gap high new week opening gap consequent encouragement and new week opening gap low shown here respectively. |
| 42 | 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:27,450 | Here is the opening range gap shown to you at the 930 opening price. And with regular trading hours, you'll see that down here, if you have live data, you can |
| 43 | 00:08:27,510 --> 00:08:37,140 | toggle this it'll be eth, which electronic trading hours, or regular trading hours versus the r th here. When you toggle that it's going to show you where we |
| 44 | 00:08:37,140 --> 00:08:50,430 | close the previous session right here and then we wait for the 930 opening. There's your opening range gap. And you see how we performed there we had an |
| 45 | 00:08:50,430 --> 00:09:01,500 | initial drop down drop was followed by the run up into the buy side I mentioned real time we hit that right at the candle high at 950. That's the algorithmic |
| 46 | 00:09:01,500 --> 00:09:11,340 | macro that I teach, which is 10 minutes to 10. And it continues to 10 minutes after 10. Within that 10 minutes prior and 10 minutes after the 10 o'clock hour. |
| 47 | 00:09:12,060 --> 00:09:22,320 | There will be a price swing that originates It starts there. And it'll run for liquidity. We take by side here. So where's it gonna go next sell side. And I |
| 48 | 00:09:22,380 --> 00:09:28,950 | call that live all on Twitter. And it's all there. You're welcome to go back and look at all that I didn't do too many tweets today. So it'll be easy to track |
| 49 | 00:09:28,950 --> 00:09:41,040 | and see it. And the market trades. Again back up into that fear of a gap I mentioned here. You can take the tweets also and copy the link from the Twitter |
| 50 | 00:09:42,060 --> 00:09:51,480 | and right mouse button on a trading view chart on a limited chart. It'll plot my tweet Real Time rate on the minute candle you can see what I was talking about |
| 51 | 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:59,700 | at the time and proper context. It's very useful way of falling along the logic even after the fact like be as good to school, run a business or working or |
| 52 | 00:09:59,700 --> 00:10:10,740 | sleeping If you can go back and do all these back testing ideas here, okay, so my version of back testing is all of this annotation is not pushing a button |
| 53 | 00:10:10,740 --> 00:10:25,080 | with a market replay type thing, nothing like that. That's a forward walk test. Before you do a live, you trading with real time, and also demo. So there's a |
| 54 | 00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:34,380 | step between that. And that's not what we're talking about here. This is this is back testing my version of it, which is studying the price action, looking at |
| 55 | 00:10:34,410 --> 00:10:44,940 | all the scenarios and mapping out the idea with all this empty space here and here and over here, you'd be filling that in with your own chart, explaining |
| 56 | 00:10:45,060 --> 00:10:55,950 | what this returned back to this consequent encroachment of that discount with now acting as what an inversion level resistance, beautiful delivery. Now, this |
| 57 | 00:10:55,950 --> 00:11:05,070 | is why I tell the skeptics that watch this, and if you see a rectangle, my chart anything right away, it's supply and demand. It's not. For the folks that say |
| 58 | 00:11:05,070 --> 00:11:17,070 | it's Support Resistance, it's not this low, why did price not go just to that level? Right there and stop and turn on Dawn, its support broken turn |
| 59 | 00:11:17,070 --> 00:11:25,080 | resistance, why did it go up to the level I teach? Right there, because the markets booked by algorithmic price delivery, not retail logic, like support and |
| 60 | 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:34,470 | resistance, okay? The market den trades into the opening range gap low, beautiful delivery there, and then consolidates going into the lunch hour. |
| 61 | 00:11:38,850 --> 00:11:47,280 | Speaking of lunch, here we have it, the market trades again off that consequent encroachment of that wick down into the opening range gap low. If we can notice |
| 62 | 00:11:47,280 --> 00:12:02,040 | the opening range gap low when the market opens higher than where we closed on the previous session, meaning where we settle. And where we open at 930. The |
| 63 | 00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:12,960 | next day, that is your opening range gap, it may be a gap higher, or maybe a gap lower, in this case we get higher. So the opening range get low is the previous |
| 64 | 00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:21,930 | day's settlement price or close. Okay, and then the differences is where we open at 930 the gaps higher on the open at 930. From the previous day's settlement |
| 65 | 00:12:21,930 --> 00:12:33,030 | price, chances are we're probably going to look to see it trade back down into that range. It can go all the way down to the opening range gap low or beyond if |
| 66 | 00:12:33,030 --> 00:12:46,560 | there's something else that it could reach for, for a discount. I've shown you this before, we have a low, lower low, higher low. This price run here, take |
| 67 | 00:12:46,560 --> 00:13:00,510 | your fib drop it on the low of the high, IT projects, a swing high of negative 1.5, which comes to the price level of 4027 and three quarters, extend that to |
| 68 | 00:13:00,510 --> 00:13:12,780 | the right 4027 and three quarters is the actual high tech of that candle, that candle in that candle in the last hour of trading inside of that first V Ray gap |
| 69 | 00:13:12,780 --> 00:13:22,680 | I mentioned. That's the rules works. That's how it's coded. And then it doesn't sound fun when I keep repeating it. But at some point, you're gonna have to |
| 70 | 00:13:22,680 --> 00:13:34,500 | realize that these things are not random. Probably that run up in here we have a shift in market structure after one o'clock. Here's one o'clock. So now we're |
| 71 | 00:13:34,500 --> 00:13:47,100 | going to do we're going to run for the stops prior to what, during and prior to lunch. So we have all these by side here by side here and all the back up above |
| 72 | 00:13:47,100 --> 00:13:58,230 | here. So we're in consolidation right now on the daily chart. That's the reason why we're seeing these types of price action. Very get high to low discount, |
| 73 | 00:13:58,530 --> 00:14:05,940 | trade down to it, look at the bodies respecting it. Yes, we have a wick, and we have a wick there that just about closed in. But the bodies are respecting the |
| 74 | 00:14:05,940 --> 00:14:22,140 | high end of that as beautiful price runs, takes up by side digs into the imbalance. Now using this price run here to measure that projection. From here |
| 75 | 00:14:22,140 --> 00:14:36,090 | to here, taken up by side here that's suggested that that's a potential run. But if we go back to the old high back here earlier in the day at 403, for down to |
| 76 | 00:14:36,090 --> 00:14:50,310 | that low. It would be better for us to dig up into a premium because we're in consolidation by side by side by side and also with this swing high here and the |
| 77 | 00:14:50,310 --> 00:15:02,640 | old fairway gap so there's a lot of confluence pointing to that 402 7.75 level which it delivers perfectly to the tick three candles prior to giving up the |
| 78 | 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:12,270 | ghost. Also note that run up here is above the New York midnight opening price. Okay, so you have to know what time it is in New York local time. Right at |
| 79 | 00:15:12,270 --> 00:15:20,340 | midnight, New York local time, that price, you want to have that annotate on your chart, Best Short Positions are going to be above it. Best long positions |
| 80 | 00:15:20,340 --> 00:15:33,720 | are going to be below that role will serve you extremely well in the future. And finally, this is the last hour of trading for the New York session or final our |
| 81 | 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:49,830 | New York pm session. Here's that 402 7.75 level, and the macro that starts at 250 to 310. That means there's going to be a move that begins there. It's up in |
| 82 | 00:15:49,830 --> 00:16:01,770 | a premium, it's going to seek what discount, here's your price low in that run. Equilibrium would be right in here. So right below that low would be nice. |
| 83 | 00:16:02,430 --> 00:16:09,600 | Interestingly enough, it trades down into that and retraces back up into the bearish breaker. This breaker is the one I showed you. At the beginning of the |
| 84 | 00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:22,260 | video, we're extending at, obviously across the entirety of the trading day. So we have this break lower swing lows taken trades back up into this candle right |
| 85 | 00:16:22,260 --> 00:16:30,960 | here that candles high is the exact high of that one in that one. That is institutional order flow entry drill, all has to do is match that price. So you |
| 86 | 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:41,940 | can be a seller at that candle and that candle. Looking for a price run below that low here in that lower here. Relative equal lows here. That's where sell |
| 87 | 00:16:41,940 --> 00:16:55,290 | side resides. And again, we have the opening range gap low over here, which is previous settlement price on Friday. Then we have again repricing to that inside |
| 88 | 00:16:55,290 --> 00:17:04,590 | the last portion of the final hour of pm session trading. Let's go back into the details here. Trading back up in that bearish breaker with also institutional |
| 89 | 00:17:04,590 --> 00:17:16,710 | reform integral after hitting the forward zero to 7.75 level perfectly. That's a nice short here. Volume imbalance if you missed it, it trades back up into it |
| 90 | 00:17:16,740 --> 00:17:25,770 | there. Breaks lower, we have a wick. This is a discount wick that it's going to act as an inversion level. So think of like support broken term resistance the |
| 91 | 00:17:25,770 --> 00:17:26,280 | real way. |
| 92 | 00:17:27,630 --> 00:17:36,540 | Then we have SEBI here so set unbalanced by Saturn efficiency which is a fair value governmental classifying it as what it is Sibi s IBI sellside delivery, |
| 93 | 00:17:37,260 --> 00:17:48,060 | what's it inefficient on by side so we would expect price to deliver up to it and look at that wouldn't you know it goes right to the tick price. Don't take |
| 94 | 00:17:48,060 --> 00:17:57,540 | my word for it measure that goal in your timeframe and measure the low that candle to the open midpoint of that 50% draw that out in time that's exactly |
| 95 | 00:17:57,540 --> 00:18:13,380 | where it goes. Inside of a bearish breaker. We have by side here. We have a high low higher high that last down close candle extended forward. We have a sippy |
| 96 | 00:18:13,740 --> 00:18:27,510 | and a consequent corrosion on that wick boom delivery perfect. price breaks lower. Last up close candle prior this displacement is the bearish order block, |
| 97 | 00:18:27,900 --> 00:18:38,040 | trades up into that once twice gives up the ghost and again one more time repricing back down into the opening range gap low for a final our New York |
| 98 | 00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:51,690 | session. trading opportunity just the beautiful pm session. This one here is like a centerfold. Also notice again we're trading above right here. Above that |
| 99 | 00:18:51,690 --> 00:19:01,860 | New York midnight opening price. Short at the breaker shorter the breaker shorter the volume imbalance breaks lower below this low here. So there's |
| 100 | 00:19:01,860 --> 00:19:13,440 | displacement. So now you can use what you can use the 2020 model, which would be high to low equilibrium here's your fair value gap trades up into it there was |
| 101 | 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:25,560 | going to end for sale side relative equal lows and or the opening range gap low. And then boom. Just wonderful technical. It's just really really nice to see |
| 102 | 00:19:25,860 --> 00:19:33,240 | algorithmic theory delivering as you see it here. Hopefully found this insightful and I'll talk to you next time. Be safe |