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Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-11-05 12:26
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Drunk Monkey 1.1 1 == Outline ==
2
Drunk Monkey 2.1 3 ##02:33 -## FOMC and Market Expectations
Drunk Monkey 1.1 4
Drunk Monkey 2.1 5 - ICT discusses the upcoming FOMC meeting, which is expected to slow down trading as traders wait for the Fed's actions.
6 - ICT emphasizes the importance of not trying to forecast the Fed's actions, as it leads to self-deception.
7 - The market is in a relaxed state, waiting for the opening range to complete, typically between 9:30 and 10:00.
8 - ICT aims for a low threshold objective of five handles in the ES, rather than larger polls.
Drunk Monkey 1.1 9
Drunk Monkey 2.1 10 ##06:42 -## Teaching Approach and Market Psychology
Drunk Monkey 1.1 11
Drunk Monkey 2.1 12 - ICT explains his teaching approach, focusing on low-threshold objectives to avoid the pressure of getting rich quickly.
13 - He shares his personal experience of fear and anxiety when starting to trade, which he aims to help his students overcome.
14 - ICT emphasizes the importance of using a demo account for practice before trading with real funds.
15 - He discusses the fear of new traders, including his son, who is embarking on a funded account challenge.
Drunk Monkey 1.1 16
Drunk Monkey 2.1 17 ##28:32 -## Fair Value Gap and Market Entry
Drunk Monkey 1.1 18
Drunk Monkey 2.1 19 - ICT introduces the concept of a fair value gap as a visually easy thing to find in a price chart.
20 - He explains the importance of identifying buy-side and sell-side liquidity levels.
21 - ICT limits his perspective to a five-minute chart to mimic the view of a trader with limited experience.
22 - He discusses the significance of the opening range gap and the potential for trading back into that range.
Drunk Monkey 1.1 23
Drunk Monkey 2.1 24 ##53:56 -## Overcoming Fear and Anxiety
Drunk Monkey 1.1 25
Drunk Monkey 2.1 26 - ICT shares his personal experience of fear and anxiety when he first started trading in the 1990s.
27 - He emphasizes the importance of not overthinking and removing leverage to reduce fear.
28 - ICT advises new traders to start with one contract and gradually increase as they gain experience.
29 - He discusses the importance of not blocking out mistakes and learning from them.
Drunk Monkey 1.1 30
Drunk Monkey 2.1 31 ##54:11 -## Market Analysis and Entry Drills
Drunk Monkey 1.1 32
Drunk Monkey 2.1 33 - ICT analyzes the market conditions, focusing on the dollar index and its impact on other markets.
34 - He explains the concept of a bearish breaker and its significance in market analysis.
35 - ICT discusses the importance of waiting for the right entry point and not rushing into trades.
36 - He emphasizes the need for discipline and patience in trading.
Drunk Monkey 1.1 37
Drunk Monkey 2.1 38 ##55:54 -## Live Trade Example and Explanation
39
40 - ICT provides a live trade example, explaining his thought process and entry criteria.
41 - He discusses the importance of using a fair value gap and incorporating other market conditions.
42 - ICT explains the significance of the breaker and how it influences market behavior.
43 - He emphasizes the importance of journaling trades and learning from both successful and unsuccessful entries.
44
45 ##57:33 -## Market Conditions and Trading Strategies
46
47 - ICT discusses the mixed market conditions ahead of FOMC and the need for nimbleness in trading.
48 - He explains the importance of lowering expectations and being prepared for market volatility.
49 - ICT emphasizes the need for consistent practice in various market conditions to build trading skills.
50 - He discusses the importance of understanding market structure and using it to inform trading decisions.
51
52 ##57:45 -## Smart Money and Market Efficiency
53
54 - ICT explains the concept of smart money and how they engage price in the market.
55 - He discusses the importance of understanding market inefficiencies and where orders would be resting.
56 - ICT emphasizes the need for traders to focus on price action and not get distracted by market noise.
57 - He explains the significance of using tools like the 2022 model to guide trading decisions.
58
59 ##01:12:31 -## Final Thoughts and Market Insights
60
61 - ICT reflects on the importance of consistency and precision in trading.
62 - He emphasizes the need for traders to have a target and measure their progress.
63 - ICT discusses the importance of understanding market logic and not relying on random patterns.
64 - He concludes by encouraging traders to practice and learn from their experiences to build long-term success.
65
66
Drunk Monkey 1.1 67 == Transcript ==
68
69 (% class="hover min" %)
Drunk Monkey 2.1 70 |1 |00:02:33 ~-~-> 00:02:38 |ICT: Good morning folks, good morning guys. Give me a heads up on Twitter, if
71 |2 |00:02:39 ~-~-> 00:02:43 |the all like the audio and volume is okay, and if you could
72 |3 |00:02:46 ~-~-> 00:02:47 |see the ES chart.
73 |4 |00:02:59 ~-~-> 00:03:09 |Thank you, Leon. The volume good, not that I can do anything better than I'm
74 |5 |00:03:09 ~-~-> 00:03:15 |doing now. My microphones volume is all the way up. I'm literally within kissing
75 |6 |00:03:15 ~-~-> 00:03:24 |distance. So that's where we're at with this. Okay, I'm Bear with me one second.
76 |7 |00:03:24 ~-~-> 00:03:25 |Okay.
77 |8 |00:03:36 ~-~-> 00:03:43 |All right, so today, we embark on a topic that many of you have been
78 |9 |00:03:44 ~-~-> 00:03:51 |chomping at the bit to get to, which is pushing the button. So obviously,
79 |10 |00:03:51 ~-~-> 00:03:57 |tomorrow we have FOMC. So that creates the likelihood of a rather slow trading
80 |11 |00:03:57 ~-~-> 00:04:02 |session. A lot of folks just waiting to see what the Fed will be doing tomorrow.
81 |12 |00:04:02 ~-~-> 00:04:07 |Everyone's making their bets as to what to expect, what not to expect. I don't
82 |13 |00:04:07 ~-~-> 00:04:11 |know. Okay, so I'm not I don't ever try to go in to the market and try to
83 |14 |00:04:11 ~-~-> 00:04:19 |forecast the actions of the Fed. So I think anyone that tries to do that is
84 |15 |00:04:19 ~-~-> 00:04:28 |just fooling themselves, or at least attempting to fool themselves. So while
85 |16 |00:04:28 ~-~-> 00:04:32 |we're waiting for the morning sessions opening range to complete, which is
86 |17 |00:04:32 ~-~-> 00:04:40 |typically 930 to 10 o'clock, we keep a relaxed view on the marketplace. I'm not
87 |18 |00:04:40 ~-~-> 00:04:43 |trying to go in with any kind of hard line bias, yet. I want to let want to
88 |19 |00:04:43 ~-~-> 00:04:49 |let the market itself tell me what to look for, and all we're looking for this
89 |20 |00:04:49 ~-~-> 00:04:54 |morning is a small little opportunity to get what I teach as a low threshold
90 |21 |00:04:54 ~-~-> 00:05:00 |objective, which is five handles in the ES. So while obviously. Later in the
91 |22 |00:05:00 ~-~-> 00:05:05 |year, you'll see me do larger polls where we're doing 2030, 4050, handle
92 |23 |00:05:05 ~-~-> 00:05:10 |runs. There will be days for that. Today's not one of them. So I kind of
93 |24 |00:05:10 ~-~-> 00:05:15 |like want to beat on the drum of how I teach all of my students to start with,
94 |25 |00:05:15 ~-~-> 00:05:20 |which is a really low hanging fruit objective. I believe that anyone that
95 |26 |00:05:20 ~-~-> 00:05:25 |goes into this with that mindset, in terms of studying like that, not trying
96 |27 |00:05:25 ~-~-> 00:05:29 |to get rich overnight, not trying to get rich and at all really, just trying to
97 |28 |00:05:29 ~-~-> 00:05:34 |carve out an opportunity that repeats over and over again, that you like, that
98 |29 |00:05:34 ~-~-> 00:05:39 |you can find comfort and seem being patient looking for it, allowing the
99 |30 |00:05:39 ~-~-> 00:05:46 |market to present as many advantageous signatures in our favor that would
100 |31 |00:05:46 ~-~-> 00:05:52 |warrant a price move that is, at least by definition the way I define it, high
101 |32 |00:05:52 ~-~-> 00:05:58 |probability. So I'm willing to submit to a longer time than I normally am this
102 |33 |00:05:58 ~-~-> 00:06:04 |morning. Usually I do about an hour or so, and then I cut bait or whatever. I'm
103 |34 |00:06:04 ~-~-> 00:06:09 |going to try to stay with you this morning until we get an opportunity that
104 |35 |00:06:09 ~-~-> 00:06:13 |fits my criteria. So I'll kind of give you the nuts and bolts as to why I
105 |36 |00:06:13 ~-~-> 00:06:20 |believe it should do what I expect it to do. I want to preface it by saying, and
106 |37 |00:06:20 ~-~-> 00:06:24 |most of you already know this. It's been with me for a long time. This is not a
107 |38 |00:06:24 ~-~-> 00:06:30 |signal service, okay, let me remind you what the disclaimer here as I talk
108 |39 |00:06:40 ~-~-> 00:06:46 |that disclaimer will be popping up a few times during this presentation today. It
109 |40 |00:06:46 ~-~-> 00:06:52 |is not an invitation for you to copy. It is not an invitation for you to try to
110 |41 |00:06:52 ~-~-> 00:06:57 |fix your draw down. It's not an invitation for you to get your last
111 |42 |00:06:57 ~-~-> 00:07:01 |little piece of your funded account challenge passed. Okay, I'm going to
112 |43 |00:07:01 ~-~-> 00:07:07 |give you certain exercises today, and I'm also going to tell you where I
113 |44 |00:07:07 ~-~-> 00:07:14 |believe it's going to go. I'm going to inspire you to use your demo. Okay, I
114 |45 |00:07:14 ~-~-> 00:07:19 |don't. I don't want you to use your Live account. If you're trading with anything
115 |46 |00:07:19 ~-~-> 00:07:23 |I say today, you're absolutely doing it wrong, and you're going to regret it.
116 |47 |00:07:24 ~-~-> 00:07:31 |Okay, so what we're doing is I'm teaching my son, who is embarking on a
117 |48 |00:07:31 ~-~-> 00:07:35 |funded account challenge, and I won't name the company here, because I don't
118 |49 |00:07:35 ~-~-> 00:07:39 |want to represent anybody, and I'm not suggesting that they're good or bad. I'm
119 |50 |00:07:39 ~-~-> 00:07:44 |just saying that he's making an attempt to do. So that's where he wants to go
120 |51 |00:07:44 ~-~-> 00:07:48 |with it. He doesn't want me to give him money to do it, which is great. But his
121 |52 |00:07:48 ~-~-> 00:07:53 |concern, as a new student of the markets, and he is absolutely green, he
122 |53 |00:07:53 ~-~-> 00:08:00 |doesn't know how to do much of anything. So his concern is He's fearful of
123 |54 |00:08:00 ~-~-> 00:08:05 |getting in and that was one of the initial things I had in the 90s. When I
124 |55 |00:08:05 ~-~-> 00:08:10 |first started trading commodities, I was fearful. I didn't know really what I was
125 |56 |00:08:10 ~-~-> 00:08:17 |looking for. And it was manifesting itself in my anxiety about when and what
126 |57 |00:08:17 ~-~-> 00:08:20 |market I should be trading. What time frame should I be trading, if you're new
127 |58 |00:08:20 ~-~-> 00:08:27 |to all of this market stuff and or even ICT content, it can be a little bit
128 |59 |00:08:27 ~-~-> 00:08:30 |bewildering, you know, like, what time frame should I use? What market should I
129 |60 |00:08:30 ~-~-> 00:08:36 |trade? You know, what setup, what's the what's the thing I'm looking for? And
130 |61 |00:08:36 ~-~-> 00:08:42 |the reason why I teach the way I do is I present lots of different approaches to
131 |62 |00:08:42 ~-~-> 00:08:47 |skinning that cap, but it allows you to bring in your own personality. Now
132 |63 |00:08:47 ~-~-> 00:08:54 |today, unfortunately, I'm going to try to force one particular approach to
133 |64 |00:08:55 ~-~-> 00:08:59 |getting in, and I'm going to try to utilize a fair value gap, which is
134 |65 |00:09:00 ~-~-> 00:09:10 |predominantly the most visually easy thing to find in a price chart. Much
135 |66 |00:09:10 ~-~-> 00:09:14 |like looking at equal lows that we target for sell side liquidity, that's
136 |67 |00:09:14 ~-~-> 00:09:19 |where we think that the market's likely to draw to much like we expect equal
137 |68 |00:09:19 ~-~-> 00:09:24 |highs to be a draw for buy side liquidity. Those types of things are
138 |69 |00:09:24 ~-~-> 00:09:29 |pretty generic. They're they're not hiding from you. In fact, it's next to
139 |70 |00:09:29 ~-~-> 00:09:38 |impossible to not see them, meaning all we're looking for is a clear indication
140 |71 |00:09:38 ~-~-> 00:09:48 |that the market's likely to reach into some level of buy side or sell side, and
141 |72 |00:09:48 ~-~-> 00:09:53 |I'm submitting to not looking at anything this morning, because I want to
142 |73 |00:09:53 ~-~-> 00:09:59 |kind of like present the opportunity in the closest manner to someone that.
143 |74 |00:10:00 ~-~-> 00:10:05 |Doesn't know what I'm teaching, so I'm limiting my perspective to just this
144 |75 |00:10:05 ~-~-> 00:10:10 |five minute chart. Now, you don't want to be doing this. Obviously, the market
145 |76 |00:10:10 ~-~-> 00:10:13 |just opened up, by the way. You don't want to do this if you're trying to
146 |77 |00:10:13 ~-~-> 00:10:18 |trade with real funds. But try trying to pantomime as close as I can to someone
147 |78 |00:10:18 ~-~-> 00:10:22 |that would have a limited perspective, which is someone that doesn't look at
148 |79 |00:10:22 ~-~-> 00:10:26 |higher Time Frame charts, someone that doesn't look at much of anything except
149 |80 |00:10:26 ~-~-> 00:10:30 |for the chart they're looking at at the time and usually it's a one minute chart
150 |81 |00:10:30 ~-~-> 00:10:33 |or five minute chart, because me and other people on the internet have
151 |82 |00:10:33 ~-~-> 00:10:38 |showcased opportunities that we're presenting on those time frames. So
152 |83 |00:10:38 ~-~-> 00:10:42 |therefore the audience members will gravitate to those time frames, thinking
153 |84 |00:10:42 ~-~-> 00:10:45 |that that's the only way to do it when it's not, it's just, it's a good
154 |85 |00:10:45 ~-~-> 00:10:49 |teaching medium for me because it gives lots of opportunity, plus it gives no
155 |86 |00:10:49 ~-~-> 00:10:57 |room for any delay, like it's right there on the on the fly. And this five
156 |87 |00:10:57 ~-~-> 00:11:03 |minute chart may not be the time frame I'm going to use on I pulled that up to
157 |88 |00:11:03 ~-~-> 00:11:10 |show the Monday closing regular session price, which is that 3984 so just
158 |89 |00:11:10 ~-~-> 00:11:15 |sticking to this time frame here, we're opening up with a premium, premium, in
159 |90 |00:11:15 ~-~-> 00:11:19 |the sense that we are opening up with a gap from yesterday's close. So we've
160 |91 |00:11:19 ~-~-> 00:11:26 |worked higher overnight. And if you go to your regular trading hours tab, you
161 |92 |00:11:26 ~-~-> 00:11:32 |click on that, there's the gap we're looking at here. Okay, so it's a very
162 |93 |00:11:32 ~-~-> 00:11:36 |significant gap. Whenever it's like that, I like to see a little bit of a
163 |94 |00:11:36 ~-~-> 00:11:41 |move to the upside, to draw in the public, make them want to chase it, and
164 |95 |00:11:41 ~-~-> 00:11:45 |then typically, what it'll generally do, not all the time, but generally it'll
165 |96 |00:11:45 ~-~-> 00:11:47 |want to move back down inside of that range. And what range Am I really,
166 |97 |00:11:47 ~-~-> 00:11:55 |really speaking about? Let's outline that now. So using the regular session
167 |98 |00:11:55 ~-~-> 00:12:06 |close price here, up to the opening price I'm this morning. So that gap,
168 |99 |00:12:07 ~-~-> 00:12:16 |which is significant going into this morning, I want you to focus on the
169 |100 |00:12:16 ~-~-> 00:12:21 |potential for just trading back into that range that's shaded here. We're not
170 |101 |00:12:21 ~-~-> 00:12:25 |trying to make the case that it's going to trade all the way back down to 3984
171 |102 |00:12:26 ~-~-> 00:12:31 |50. That's not an argument. I'm trying to pose to you. What I'm suggesting is,
172 |103 |00:12:31 ~-~-> 00:12:37 |can we see a five handle price run from wherever we trade up to? And I'm not
173 |104 |00:12:37 ~-~-> 00:12:42 |trying to pick the top I'm going to let the market indicate that it's stopped,
174 |105 |00:12:42 ~-~-> 00:12:47 |at least for the short term, going higher. I'm not trying to go long. I'm
175 |106 |00:12:47 ~-~-> 00:12:53 |going to try to look for something that gets into that range here. So I'm giving
176 |107 |00:12:53 ~-~-> 00:12:58 |you a directional bias that I'm looking to operate in doesn't mean that it can't
177 |108 |00:12:58 ~-~-> 00:13:02 |go higher. Doesn't mean it can't go down to the previous session, closing price.
178 |109 |00:13:03 ~-~-> 00:13:08 |We're not trying to forecast that. Remember, the argument here is, how does
179 |110 |00:13:09 ~-~-> 00:13:15 |one conquer fear of getting in? How do you conquer that? And you probably had
180 |111 |00:13:15 ~-~-> 00:13:20 |anxiety, especially if you got lucky enough to get a funded account where
181 |112 |00:13:20 ~-~-> 00:13:24 |you've passed the challenge, and now they give you the funded account, and
182 |113 |00:13:24 ~-~-> 00:13:29 |then suddenly you're met with this new anxiety, this new let me go back to the
183 |114 |00:13:29 ~-~-> 00:13:35 |electronic session. Now. Just be mindful that this shaded area here, that's our
184 |115 |00:13:36 ~-~-> 00:13:41 |opening range gap, so where we closed yesterday or previous day to where we
185 |116 |00:13:41 ~-~-> 00:13:45 |open. That's what's being highlighted there. Okay, so when I drop down into
186 |117 |00:13:45 ~-~-> 00:13:49 |the electronic trading hours, that shaded area is what we're representing
187 |118 |00:13:49 ~-~-> 00:14:00 |there. Okay, so when I first started in 1992 I was admittedly in a rush to get
188 |119 |00:14:00 ~-~-> 00:14:05 |the account opened up. But then, once the account was was opened, I was frozen
189 |120 |00:14:05 ~-~-> 00:14:10 |with fear, and everything I was looking at on the chart seemed like it was
190 |121 |00:14:10 ~-~-> 00:14:14 |Greek, whereas I thought before I knew what I was looking for, when I really
191 |122 |00:14:14 ~-~-> 00:14:22 |didn't, but I was fearful and paranoid about doing anything, because I was
192 |123 |00:14:22 ~-~-> 00:14:27 |afraid of that first trade being what wrong. I was afraid of taking the loss.
193 |124 |00:14:27 ~-~-> 00:14:32 |I was afraid of doing it incorrectly, and no one knew what I was doing. They
194 |125 |00:14:32 ~-~-> 00:14:36 |didn't know I had money in the account. They didn't know me as a trader. I
195 |126 |00:14:36 ~-~-> 00:14:39 |wasn't online. I wasn't inner circle trader, yet, I was the guy that just
196 |127 |00:14:39 ~-~-> 00:14:45 |opened up a trading account with Fox investments paying $100 per round, turn
197 |128 |00:14:46 ~-~-> 00:14:52 |per contract. Yes, it was robbery, but that's what we were told. That was the
198 |129 |00:14:52 ~-~-> 00:14:55 |normal back then. So a discount broker was like Lynn wall dock, where you paid
199 |130 |00:14:55 ~-~-> 00:15:04 |30 some dollars per contract. So I was fearful my. Much, much in the vein that
200 |131 |00:15:04 ~-~-> 00:15:08 |most of you would have doing it wrong. But I was also afraid of because I only
201 |132 |00:15:08 ~-~-> 00:15:13 |had $2,500 in the account, which was extremely under capitalized, like I
202 |133 |00:15:13 ~-~-> 00:15:20 |didn't have enough money. So what I was thinking was, not only do I have to be
203 |134 |00:15:20 ~-~-> 00:15:25 |right about my trade, but also have to be right about my entry, not going into
204 |135 |00:15:25 ~-~-> 00:15:29 |too much drawdown, because soon as I put the trade on, they're going to do what,
205 |136 |00:15:29 ~-~-> 00:15:32 |they're going to take that commission right out of that. So I got to cover
206 |137 |00:15:32 ~-~-> 00:15:36 |$100 right away. So if I'm trading the grain market like soybeans, I have to
207 |138 |00:15:36 ~-~-> 00:15:41 |have at least two cents of a move, because each penny move is 50 Cent, I'm
208 |139 |00:15:41 ~-~-> 00:15:47 |sorry, $50 much like a yes, mini contract. So I was already overthinking
209 |140 |00:15:47 ~-~-> 00:15:53 |everything, and that anxiety caused me to be much like a deer in headlights.
210 |141 |00:15:54 ~-~-> 00:16:00 |And let me also talk about, you know, real quick, this. This is about teaching
211 |142 |00:16:00 ~-~-> 00:16:04 |you how to overcome fear. It's not about teaching you to follow me and uses as
212 |143 |00:16:04 ~-~-> 00:16:09 |signals. Because I know some of you are here just for that very reason, if
213 |144 |00:16:09 ~-~-> 00:16:12 |you're not listening to what I'm teaching, it's not going to be
214 |145 |00:16:12 ~-~-> 00:16:15 |beneficial to you. I could get out here and push the button to meet right all
215 |146 |00:16:15 ~-~-> 00:16:19 |day long, but it's not making you better. It's not teaching you how to do
216 |147 |00:16:19 ~-~-> 00:16:22 |it on your own, which is really what I'm trying to do here. It's only reason why
217 |148 |00:16:22 ~-~-> 00:16:27 |I'm even doing live streams is to show you how to do it. And my son, who's
218 |149 |00:16:27 ~-~-> 00:16:31 |hopefully going to learn from this and he wasn't privy to all this stuff that
219 |150 |00:16:31 ~-~-> 00:16:35 |I'm talking about now, because he wasn't interested in trading these typical
220 |151 |00:16:35 ~-~-> 00:16:41 |teenage kid video games and high school antics that kids do. But
221 |152 |00:16:44 ~-~-> 00:16:48 |my concern, much like all of yours, if you've ever experienced fear, and some
222 |153 |00:16:48 ~-~-> 00:16:52 |of you probably are fearful doing it wrong, even in a demo account, I've had
223 |154 |00:16:52 ~-~-> 00:16:57 |many people reach out to me that they have ruined several demo accounts not
224 |155 |00:16:57 ~-~-> 00:17:00 |knowing what they're doing, and it is so frustrated they can't even get to the
225 |156 |00:17:00 ~-~-> 00:17:06 |point where you can push a button there, which is extreme anxiety, but you're
226 |157 |00:17:06 ~-~-> 00:17:11 |placing too much emphasis on the outcome being perfect for you in the beginning,
227 |158 |00:17:12 ~-~-> 00:17:17 |as I'll show you today, you want to exercise and do drills, and I'm going to
228 |159 |00:17:17 ~-~-> 00:17:22 |teach you how to cope with the initial fear of getting into a market move and
229 |160 |00:17:22 ~-~-> 00:17:27 |not worrying about that outcome being profitable. Now, before I close the
230 |161 |00:17:27 ~-~-> 00:17:30 |session, obviously, my goal is to find something that moves five handles that's
231 |162 |00:17:30 ~-~-> 00:17:33 |that's obviously the intention today. But I'm also going to present
232 |163 |00:17:33 ~-~-> 00:17:36 |opportunities where I want you to think about what you're being shown in the
233 |164 |00:17:37 ~-~-> 00:17:41 |chart. I'm going to point to something and ask you to conceptualize what it is
234 |165 |00:17:41 ~-~-> 00:17:46 |I'm pointing at, and does it make sense to utilize that as an entry versus the
235 |166 |00:17:46 ~-~-> 00:17:52 |ones that you'll actually see me push the button on? Now it's a it's a skill
236 |167 |00:17:52 ~-~-> 00:17:57 |set that you'll obviously learn over time, but you can't just expect with a
237 |168 |00:17:57 ~-~-> 00:18:01 |live account, whether it be a funded account or your actual funds in a
238 |169 |00:18:01 ~-~-> 00:18:05 |traditional broker. You can't expect those types of conditions just to
239 |170 |00:18:05 ~-~-> 00:18:08 |materialize magic and all of a sudden, now you know how to trade because you're
240 |171 |00:18:08 ~-~-> 00:18:13 |using real money now, which is the reason why I'm an opponent to anyone
241 |172 |00:18:13 ~-~-> 00:18:17 |teaching that people should just learn how to trade with real money. You don't
242 |173 |00:18:17 ~-~-> 00:18:22 |learn how to trade with real money. You learn how to engage risk where you
243 |174 |00:18:22 ~-~-> 00:18:27 |didn't have that before in paper trading and demo trading, but you learned how to
244 |175 |00:18:27 ~-~-> 00:18:31 |trade with a demo. That's what a demo does. The demo is not just to
245 |176 |00:18:31 ~-~-> 00:18:35 |familiarize yourself with a platform or broker. It's absolutely to teach you how
246 |177 |00:18:35 ~-~-> 00:18:39 |to trade. And anyone that says otherwise, is this a fool? And this is
247 |178 |00:18:39 ~-~-> 00:18:45 |the bottom line. So we're looking at a market that has a little bit of a mixed
248 |179 |00:18:45 ~-~-> 00:18:49 |bag this morning, much like we had yesterday. I was calling most of
249 |180 |00:18:49 ~-~-> 00:18:53 |everything you saw yesterday, and yes, on my Twitter feed, so you can go back
250 |181 |00:18:53 ~-~-> 00:18:59 |and take a look at that. But today we have the dollar index. It's come off of
251 |182 |00:18:59 ~-~-> 00:19:06 |its lows from 930 back into the range that was formed from 915 to 930 I'd like
252 |183 |00:19:06 ~-~-> 00:19:11 |to see it mount a run above. You're welcome to check your charts. I don't
253 |184 |00:19:11 ~-~-> 00:19:18 |want to toggle too much and make the mistake of losing audio the high of 103,
254 |185 |00:19:18 ~-~-> 00:19:25 |13. I want to see it trade above that. That would indicate there's likeliness
255 |186 |00:19:26 ~-~-> 00:19:33 |to see the shaded area on es be revisited. And again, we're just looking
256 |187 |00:19:33 ~-~-> 00:19:40 |for an opportunity to frame a five handle run, which is not a lot. And
257 |188 |00:19:41 ~-~-> 00:19:45 |right away you should be thinking, How much could I be risking with that? Well,
258 |189 |00:19:45 ~-~-> 00:19:50 |when you first encounter doing entry drills, where you're practicing with
259 |190 |00:19:50 ~-~-> 00:19:54 |your demo account or your paper trading account, which is how you do this,
260 |191 |00:19:55 ~-~-> 00:19:58 |you're using one contract. Now, I know some of you out there that are trying to
261 |192 |00:19:58 ~-~-> 00:20:02 |make a name for yourself. Rolling and making up a bunch of nonsense. You're
262 |193 |00:20:02 ~-~-> 00:20:06 |going to get out there, and you're going to say, but I trade 40 contracts and 30
263 |194 |00:20:06 ~-~-> 00:20:09 |contracts and blow my account out in front of everybody on live streams and
264 |195 |00:20:09 ~-~-> 00:20:13 |pretend it doesn't happen. What we're doing is trying to teach you how to
265 |196 |00:20:13 ~-~-> 00:20:19 |overcome the fear that fear, that anxiety, is rooted in number one, the
266 |197 |00:20:19 ~-~-> 00:20:29 |leverage. Right away. The easiest thing to do to remove fear or to squash it any
267 |198 |00:20:29 ~-~-> 00:20:35 |anxiety, is to remove the leverage. Dial that back just because your funded
268 |199 |00:20:35 ~-~-> 00:20:39 |account says you can trade with 15 contracts. That's not an invitation for
269 |200 |00:20:39 ~-~-> 00:20:44 |you, as my student that think that that's appropriate, that's a that's a
270 |201 |00:20:44 ~-~-> 00:20:48 |lot of risk for someone that's just now getting a funded account. I mean,
271 |202 |00:20:48 ~-~-> 00:20:51 |you're, you're you're new. You don't have the experience. You have no idea
272 |203 |00:20:51 ~-~-> 00:20:56 |what it feels like to watch an account balance fluctuate with that measure of
273 |204 |00:20:58 ~-~-> 00:21:05 |capital on each point fluctuation you so you want to start with one contract, and
274 |205 |00:21:05 ~-~-> 00:21:08 |you want to desensitize yourself, because that same five PIP handle or
275 |206 |00:21:08 ~-~-> 00:21:16 |summary, that five point run in ES, you can do the math and over time, when you
276 |207 |00:21:16 ~-~-> 00:21:20 |can graduate to two contracts, three contracts, Four contracts, or even opt
277 |208 |00:21:20 ~-~-> 00:21:28 |into that 15 contracts per trade, you'll have the experience working with price
278 |209 |00:21:28 ~-~-> 00:21:35 |action that's associated with real monetary loss and potential gain. You
279 |210 |00:21:35 ~-~-> 00:21:40 |just can't simply go out there and say, Well, I'm ready for it now. I'm gonna
280 |211 |00:21:40 ~-~-> 00:21:43 |I'm gonna I'm gonna go out there and just plunge into the whatever the amount
281 |212 |00:21:43 ~-~-> 00:21:48 |of contracts they allow me. I'm gonna do that. When I was teaching predominantly
282 |213 |00:21:48 ~-~-> 00:21:54 |the forex markets, I mentioned it many times. Just because you can leverage as
283 |214 |00:21:54 ~-~-> 00:21:58 |much as you can leverage with the broker, you should not be doing that,
284 |215 |00:21:58 ~-~-> 00:22:02 |because all you're doing is increasing the likelihood that you're going to
285 |216 |00:22:02 ~-~-> 00:22:05 |blow, you're going to lose, and you're going to be fearful the entire time
286 |217 |00:22:05 ~-~-> 00:22:09 |you're in the marketplace. So you want this to be very boring. You don't have
287 |218 |00:22:09 ~-~-> 00:22:14 |any kind of emotion attached to it, any kind of excitement, no kind of fanfare,
288 |219 |00:22:14 ~-~-> 00:22:20 |because if you remove all that, your attention is going to be on price
289 |220 |00:22:20 ~-~-> 00:22:25 |action, not how much you can make, or worrying about how much you're going to
290 |221 |00:22:25 ~-~-> 00:22:31 |lose. And that's unfortunately, the the case with most new traders is that they
291 |222 |00:22:32 ~-~-> 00:22:36 |they want to gamble much like the lottery and how much they can put on the
292 |223 |00:22:36 ~-~-> 00:22:41 |bet, and just hope it works out in their favor, not realizing that if they just
293 |224 |00:22:41 ~-~-> 00:22:46 |did very little risk, they can take lots of trades and still stay in the game
294 |225 |00:22:46 ~-~-> 00:22:51 |long enough to get the eventual outcome that they're looking for. If it's not,
295 |226 |00:22:51 ~-~-> 00:22:54 |get rich over quick. I'm sorry, get rich overnight, real quick, because that's
296 |227 |00:22:54 ~-~-> 00:23:03 |not what you should be doing here. So far, we're just marking time on. Es
297 |228 |00:23:03 ~-~-> 00:23:09 |hasn't done too much of anything. I'm looking at the NASDAQ. It's not doing
298 |229 |00:23:09 ~-~-> 00:23:12 |much at all either, but the Dow is certainly weaker.
299 |230 |00:23:14 ~-~-> 00:23:15 |It's coming off of its
300 |231 |00:23:16 ~-~-> 00:23:23 |run higher. It's posted this morning, early on, and I'm watching, there's a
301 |232 |00:23:23 ~-~-> 00:23:30 |volume imbalance at one Oh 3.06 on the one minute chart of dollar. So my eyes
302 |233 |00:23:30 ~-~-> 00:23:36 |there, I want to see it. Kind of respect that and still pressing to 103 13, that
303 |234 |00:23:36 ~-~-> 00:23:41 |rallying higher on dollar would be risk off near term, meaning that it's easier
304 |235 |00:23:41 ~-~-> 00:23:47 |for foreign currencies like British Pound versus US dollar, Dow, NASDAQ and
305 |236 |00:23:47 ~-~-> 00:23:52 |ES to trade softer, go lower. It doesn't mean I'm picking the top it's not an
306 |237 |00:23:52 ~-~-> 00:23:57 |indication that it's going to crash. All I'm saying is it puts things in motion
307 |238 |00:23:57 ~-~-> 00:24:03 |that would be likely supportive of of weaker, lower prices, we already gapped
308 |239 |00:24:03 ~-~-> 00:24:10 |higher. It's already had that initial move higher. There's this consolidation.
309 |240 |00:24:10 ~-~-> 00:24:15 |They broke out. Traders that use this type of idea to to buy want to break
310 |241 |00:24:15 ~-~-> 00:24:18 |out. They're already in this here. So
311 |242 |00:24:25 ~-~-> 00:24:29 |drop down into a one minute chart. Now, actually, let's just go through four
312 |243 |00:24:29 ~-~-> 00:24:29 |we're
313 |244 |00:24:46 ~-~-> 00:24:50 |so the exercise I'm teaching you today, when we get into a setting where there's
314 |245 |00:24:50 ~-~-> 00:24:54 |opportunity there, because there's nothing here, yet, remember the first 30
315 |246 |00:24:54 ~-~-> 00:24:58 |minutes as a trader, trading with ES, you want to be willing to submit to the
316 |247 |00:24:58 ~-~-> 00:25:02 |first 30 minutes? It doesn't. Mean that you can't find a setup. If it's there,
317 |248 |00:25:02 ~-~-> 00:25:09 |if it's obvious, then obviously, then you can. But as a rule of thumb, general
318 |249 |00:25:09 ~-~-> 00:25:13 |rule of thumb, you want to submit to those first 30 minutes, because
319 |250 |00:25:13 ~-~-> 00:25:18 |sometimes there's reports that come out at 945 Not today, not every day, but
320 |251 |00:25:18 ~-~-> 00:25:25 |sometimes that occurs also the initial move right off the opening generally, is
321 |252 |00:25:25 ~-~-> 00:25:31 |not the right one to be placing yourself in front of risk. So, meaning it could
322 |253 |00:25:31 ~-~-> 00:25:34 |be a Judah swing, a fake a fake move. Okay, so we want to allow the
323 |254 |00:25:34 ~-~-> 00:25:39 |marketplace to to draw in the gamblers they want to trade in near the first
324 |255 |00:25:39 ~-~-> 00:25:44 |couple minutes of trading, okay? And you want to just relax, slow down and remind
325 |256 |00:25:44 ~-~-> 00:25:49 |yourself that you have plenty of time, plenty of time you have the entire day
326 |257 |00:25:49 ~-~-> 00:25:53 |to find these measly little five handles. And you don't want to rush just
327 |258 |00:25:53 ~-~-> 00:25:56 |simply to get it out of the way, because that's also another thing that you
328 |259 |00:25:56 ~-~-> 00:26:01 |you're going to feel like, you know you want to trade. You know you're also
329 |260 |00:26:01 ~-~-> 00:26:06 |initially anxious about doing it incorrectly. So one of the things you're
330 |261 |00:26:06 ~-~-> 00:26:11 |going to feel is, all right, I'm in front of the charts. I have my account,
331 |262 |00:26:11 ~-~-> 00:26:16 |it's funded, or it's real, and I got to just get in here and get it out of the
332 |263 |00:26:16 ~-~-> 00:26:20 |way so that way I can make my money and close the charts and just just be away
333 |264 |00:26:20 ~-~-> 00:26:25 |from it. What you're doing is you're conditioning yourself to hate trading. I
334 |265 |00:26:25 ~-~-> 00:26:29 |went through a phase like that after a few accounts that I've bloomed in the
335 |266 |00:26:29 ~-~-> 00:26:35 |90s. That feeling of I just want to get in there and get my money and run away.
336 |267 |00:26:35 ~-~-> 00:26:40 |I was conditioning myself to be afraid of it, which is what made it almost
337 |268 |00:26:40 ~-~-> 00:26:46 |impossible for me to grind through to a point of not being fearful. That's why I
338 |269 |00:26:46 ~-~-> 00:26:52 |have so many execution models that lets me get into a trade. I have lots of
339 |270 |00:26:52 ~-~-> 00:26:57 |opportunities to get into a trade that allows me to participate in a move. And
340 |271 |00:26:57 ~-~-> 00:27:02 |the reason why I have so many weapons like that is because that was my of my
341 |272 |00:27:02 ~-~-> 00:27:08 |strongest barriers. I was afraid to enter because I didn't trust the model
342 |273 |00:27:08 ~-~-> 00:27:14 |that I was working with was a good one. I didn't have enough experience seeing
343 |274 |00:27:14 ~-~-> 00:27:18 |it work. I was in a hurry, just because I saw a few of them work, and sometimes
344 |275 |00:27:18 ~-~-> 00:27:21 |they didn't work, but I blocked that part out, and that's another thing you
345 |276 |00:27:21 ~-~-> 00:27:26 |need to be aware of when you do these exercises and these drills. Don't block
346 |277 |00:27:26 ~-~-> 00:27:32 |out the times you do it wrong. Don't do that. You want to make sure that you
347 |278 |00:27:32 ~-~-> 00:27:36 |learn what you did incorrectly in those and don't try to put blinders on
348 |279 |00:27:36 ~-~-> 00:27:40 |thinking, Okay, well, that didn't happen. No, you need to know what you're
349 |280 |00:27:40 ~-~-> 00:27:43 |doing, because if you don't address the issues that you're doing incorrectly,
350 |281 |00:27:43 ~-~-> 00:27:46 |they're going to repeat. And if you're doing it live funds, you know what's
351 |282 |00:27:46 ~-~-> 00:27:50 |going to happen. Eventually it's going to wear down that equity or wear down
352 |283 |00:27:50 ~-~-> 00:27:55 |your mental capital, and between both of them, you will blow your account. So
353 |284 |00:27:55 ~-~-> 00:27:59 |preservation of capital is the first and foremost important role in speculation,
354 |285 |00:27:59 ~-~-> 00:28:02 |whether you're doing it with paper trading demo or eventually in live
355 |286 |00:28:02 ~-~-> 00:28:09 |funds. So right away again, we're submitting that first 30 minutes.
356 |287 |00:28:15 ~-~-> 00:28:20 |Nothing's happened so far today, dollars firming up. It still hasn't get up.
357 |288 |00:28:20 ~-~-> 00:28:25 |Gotten above that 103, 13 level, which is what I'm looking for. I want to see
358 |289 |00:28:25 ~-~-> 00:28:30 |it get above that on dollar one, zero, 3.13 that's the level I referred to
359 |290 |00:28:30 ~-~-> 00:28:36 |earlier. Here's some weakness. We're looking for that right there. Okay, now,
360 |291 |00:28:37 ~-~-> 00:28:43 |right away, your eye should jump to these clean lows right there. You
361 |292 |00:28:43 ~-~-> 00:28:50 |see that. See that right here. Now, what's resting below those lows?
362 |293 |00:28:51 ~-~-> 00:28:56 |Sell side liquidity this low here. We had a displacement below it. We're
363 |294 |00:28:56 ~-~-> 00:29:08 |trading back up into the imbalance here. And the risk would have to be wrong on
364 |295 |00:29:08 ~-~-> 00:29:08 |that chart.
365 |296 |00:29:15 ~-~-> 00:29:16 |4022,
366 |297 |00:29:23 ~-~-> 00:29:24 |40, 25.75,
367 |298 |00:29:29 ~-~-> 00:29:36 |okay, so do we offer an opportunity to see five handles in this area here to
368 |299 |00:29:36 ~-~-> 00:29:38 |that level here? Yes.
369 |300 |00:29:38 ~-~-> 00:29:44 |Yes, that's not bright
370 |301 |00:29:59 ~-~-> 00:29:59 |enough i.
371 |302 |00:30:19 ~-~-> 00:30:25 |So now what I'm doing is as I'm watching the ES here, I want to see it drop
372 |303 |00:30:25 ~-~-> 00:30:31 |below, just to trade back inside this shaded area and also gravitate towards
373 |304 |00:30:31 ~-~-> 00:30:35 |the sell side liquidity. And I'm watching the dollar index, there's a
374 |305 |00:30:35 ~-~-> 00:30:38 |small little imbalance that it's trading on. Let me tell you the candle right
375 |306 |00:30:38 ~-~-> 00:30:38 |now.
376 |307 |00:30:38 ~-~-> 00:30:42 |If you look at the one minute chart, it is the 944,
377 |308 |00:30:44 ~-~-> 00:30:49 |big green candle on the one minute chart I'm watching. Does it respect that? In
378 |309 |00:30:49 ~-~-> 00:30:53 |other words, does it want to send dollar higher while I'm watching ES? I
379 |310 |00:32:11 ~-~-> 00:32:15 |what we were doing is the initial drill is five for five. That means you're
380 |311 |00:32:15 ~-~-> 00:32:19 |going to risk five handles to make five handles. I already know there's going to
381 |312 |00:32:19 ~-~-> 00:32:22 |be individuals in here thinking, Oh, that doesn't make money. It makes money,
382 |313 |00:32:23 ~-~-> 00:32:33 |but you don't need a high rate of multiples for you don't need a five to
383 |314 |00:32:33 ~-~-> 00:32:37 |one or 10 to 121, are multiple to be profitable. If you have a strike rate
384 |315 |00:32:37 ~-~-> 00:32:43 |that's pretty high, you can do one for one, but while you're training yourself,
385 |316 |00:32:44 ~-~-> 00:32:47 |you don't need that, you can just do one for one, because you're conditioning
386 |317 |00:32:47 ~-~-> 00:32:51 |yourself to get over that fear of missing or not missing the trading
387 |318 |00:32:51 ~-~-> 00:32:55 |because you're afraid you're gonna miss a move or you're gonna take a loss,
388 |319 |00:33:01 ~-~-> 00:33:11 |still watching that dollar. This in here is not as clean as I would like to have
389 |320 |00:33:11 ~-~-> 00:33:14 |seen it. I would have rather had not seen that little move here. But I'm
390 |321 |00:33:14 ~-~-> 00:33:20 |giving it an opportunity to see if I can see that run up on dollar on that small,
391 |322 |00:33:20 ~-~-> 00:33:27 |little buy side, balance, sell sign, efficiency. And again, we're still in
392 |323 |00:33:27 ~-~-> 00:33:31 |first in that first 30 minutes of trading. So this is all part of that.
393 |324 |00:33:31 ~-~-> 00:33:35 |What are you looking for? ICT, what are you waiting for? What do you look to
394 |325 |00:33:35 ~-~-> 00:33:39 |see? What do you want to find in price action? What is your focus? What don't
395 |326 |00:33:39 ~-~-> 00:33:43 |you like? That's what I'm doing right here. This is how you mentor someone.
396 |327 |00:33:43 ~-~-> 00:33:46 |It's just not blindly going in there and just taking a trade. Now, let's just
397 |328 |00:33:46 ~-~-> 00:33:50 |say, for instance, let's play double advocate for a moment. Say it just
398 |329 |00:33:50 ~-~-> 00:33:54 |starts to break lower, okay. Say it breaks lower. And I haven't gotten in
399 |330 |00:33:54 ~-~-> 00:34:03 |yet. I can use the top of that shaded area and the midpoint of this wick here,
400 |331 |00:34:03 ~-~-> 00:34:06 |which will be consequent encroachment. In other words, if it traded down here,
401 |332 |00:34:06 ~-~-> 00:34:10 |but didn't trade below here yet, and trade back up into it, I don't have a
402 |333 |00:34:10 ~-~-> 00:34:15 |problem with that taken as an entry. Now, you might not be comfortable with
403 |334 |00:34:15 ~-~-> 00:34:18 |something like that. I'm not trying to convince you that that's the model for
404 |335 |00:34:18 ~-~-> 00:34:22 |you. All. I'm saying is, how do you overcome fear of entry. That's the whole
405 |336 |00:34:22 ~-~-> 00:34:29 |topic of the day. But I'm wanting to trade with an entry with a fair value
406 |337 |00:34:29 ~-~-> 00:34:35 |gap. That's what I'm trying to force my focus on. That way, at some point it's
407 |338 |00:34:35 ~-~-> 00:34:39 |going to give it to me. I just have to wait long enough for it to happen. It's
408 |339 |00:34:39 ~-~-> 00:34:44 |going to happen every day there's one, but you don't have the patience, if
409 |340 |00:34:44 ~-~-> 00:34:51 |you're new, to wait for it, and since we have nothing in here, did I go short?
410 |341 |00:34:52 ~-~-> 00:34:56 |No. Why? Because there's no fair value. Guy, I wanted to see a small little
411 |342 |00:34:56 ~-~-> 00:35:01 |portion of that down closed candle left open. Do? Then a new candle start, and
412 |343 |00:35:01 ~-~-> 00:35:04 |then it trade up into that. Then I would have, I would have sold short rate
413 |344 |00:35:04 ~-~-> 00:35:08 |there, targeting these lows. But if I don't have what I'm looking for in a
414 |345 |00:35:08 ~-~-> 00:35:12 |chart, I'm not just going to think, well, you know, I got video games to
415 |346 |00:35:12 ~-~-> 00:35:16 |play. I got to do something here, or my wife's going to be asking me to do
416 |347 |00:35:16 ~-~-> 00:35:20 |something, and I won't be be in front of my charts. Not that she does that. But
417 |348 |00:35:20 ~-~-> 00:35:24 |you know how it is in real world you get pulled away from doing this, and they're
418 |349 |00:35:24 ~-~-> 00:35:26 |wonderful little distractions.
419 |350 |00:35:27 ~-~-> 00:35:31 |So Dollar Index did not respect that fair value gap, which is what I was
420 |351 |00:35:31 ~-~-> 00:35:34 |watching for. It went a little bit deeper than I wanted to see. But it does
421 |352 |00:35:34 ~-~-> 00:35:39 |have a wick. If you look at the wick on the candle one minute chart for D, x, y,
422 |353 |00:35:40 ~-~-> 00:35:47 |the 943, low that wick on the low end of the candle. We've just dropped down into
423 |354 |00:35:47 ~-~-> 00:35:50 |that. So I'm trying to watch and see if we get some kind of respect there and go
424 |355 |00:35:50 ~-~-> 00:35:56 |higher. But I don't like where we are with ES, so we might need to go one more
425 |356 |00:35:56 ~-~-> 00:36:03 |time higher on ES. NASDAQ looks like it wants a flirt with a higher high also,
426 |357 |00:36:03 ~-~-> 00:36:08 |so, but the Dow is just a dog right now. We pull up Dow real quick, since there's
427 |358 |00:36:08 ~-~-> 00:36:14 |nothing here at the time for ES, my focus is primarily on that market. So
428 |359 |00:36:14 ~-~-> 00:36:20 |that's the difference between the Dow on the one minute chart, lower, sloppier,
429 |360 |00:36:21 ~-~-> 00:36:29 |and then on NASDAQ, we have that. So we have relative equal highs. It looks like
430 |361 |00:36:29 ~-~-> 00:36:41 |we could run up in there and hit that. And yes, we have this. So we have
431 |362 |00:36:41 ~-~-> 00:36:47 |relative equal highs here, small little gap here. So if we trade it down there
432 |363 |00:36:47 ~-~-> 00:36:51 |to that to 23 to 28 that would be five handles,
433 |364 |00:37:01 ~-~-> 00:37:05 |dollars is hanging around, still not confirming or denying anything.
434 |365 |00:37:15 ~-~-> 00:37:22 |This is the part. This is the time that is excruciating for inexperienced
435 |366 |00:37:22 ~-~-> 00:37:28 |traders, you feel like, okay, you showed up. You're here. ICT says, gonna push
436 |367 |00:37:28 ~-~-> 00:37:31 |the button today, and you're ready. You're chomping at the bit. You can't
437 |368 |00:37:31 ~-~-> 00:37:36 |wait. And that's exactly how it feels when you get in front of a chart. When
438 |369 |00:37:36 ~-~-> 00:37:39 |you have live funds at your disposal, you want to do something, but then
439 |370 |00:37:39 ~-~-> 00:37:44 |you're also, I'm scared, what if I do it wrong? Everything's a second guess, and
440 |371 |00:37:44 ~-~-> 00:37:48 |you're in a hurry. You're just in a hurry to get in it, just to do
441 |372 |00:37:48 ~-~-> 00:37:55 |something, and that's the trap. You have to still remember what you learned about
442 |373 |00:37:55 ~-~-> 00:37:59 |trading in a demo. You have to remember those lessons. You have to go back on
443 |374 |00:37:59 ~-~-> 00:38:03 |that experience, because if you don't refer to that or even have gained any of
444 |375 |00:38:03 ~-~-> 00:38:06 |that experience, you're going to be impulsively just pressing the button,
445 |376 |00:38:06 ~-~-> 00:38:10 |and there has to be something in the chart to do a entry on. You just can't
446 |377 |00:38:10 ~-~-> 00:38:14 |just gamble and see what happens. We're saying that it can go up to that 4028,
447 |378 |00:38:15 ~-~-> 00:38:19 |level. I'm not interested in taking that, but that's a move. I say it is.
448 |379 |00:38:19 ~-~-> 00:38:20 |It's a move. It's
449 |380 |00:38:25 ~-~-> 00:38:32 |I want to use a fair value gap today. That's That's my focus. I'm confident
450 |381 |00:38:32 ~-~-> 00:38:36 |it'll form. I'm just trying to exercise discipline to show you what it's like to
451 |382 |00:38:36 ~-~-> 00:38:41 |sit through all the other price action moves. I don't care who's making money
452 |383 |00:38:41 ~-~-> 00:38:46 |on YouTube. I don't care how many people's posting things on Twitter.
453 |384 |00:38:47 ~-~-> 00:38:50 |That's not my trade. That's not your trade. You can't go back in time and
454 |385 |00:38:50 ~-~-> 00:38:54 |enter when they did, if it was even profitable at all. So you have to submit
455 |386 |00:38:54 ~-~-> 00:38:56 |yourself to this process of learning
456 |387 |00:38:58 ~-~-> 00:39:01 |to pop up through here and hit that 4020, level
457 |388 |00:39:05 ~-~-> 00:39:12 |still very, very mixed, which is typical ahead of FOMC, so you have to be a lot
458 |389 |00:39:12 ~-~-> 00:39:17 |more nimble on days like this, and also by lowering your expectations. So now
459 |390 |00:39:17 ~-~-> 00:39:22 |think about what's actually occurring here. The markets gapped up at the open.
460 |391 |00:39:23 ~-~-> 00:39:27 |We had a small little rally higher, and we've dropped, but we have dropped
461 |392 |00:39:28 ~-~-> 00:39:32 |aggressively. There was no real energetic drop. See that the only thing
462 |393 |00:39:32 ~-~-> 00:39:36 |we had here was this drop down here, and it quickly with the relationships of
463 |394 |00:39:36 ~-~-> 00:39:43 |intermarket analysis with the dollar. It canceled out any short here, and if you
464 |395 |00:39:43 ~-~-> 00:39:45 |missed it, you'll it'll be in the recording. Go back and listen to it.
465 |396 |00:39:45 ~-~-> 00:39:49 |There's the pop, the 4028, so in my mind, I'm thinking, anyone that's
466 |397 |00:39:49 ~-~-> 00:39:54 |already trying to sell short, the gap higher and the initial high that's being
467 |398 |00:39:54 ~-~-> 00:40:00 |formed here, this run here kills them. So now I'm watching very i. Closely. How
468 |399 |00:40:00 ~-~-> 00:40:05 |that dollar index go back to that original fair value gap. That means the
469 |400 |00:40:05 ~-~-> 00:40:15 |one at the candle at 944, one minute Dollar Index. If we rally here because
470 |401 |00:40:15 ~-~-> 00:40:18 |we cut through candles, we're not supplying demand. Cut through the
471 |402 |00:40:18 ~-~-> 00:40:23 |candles. It's been formed over the last seven or eight of them go back to that
472 |403 |00:40:23 ~-~-> 00:40:26 |fair value gap, the candle ring right now, basically, is already traded down
473 |404 |00:40:26 ~-~-> 00:40:30 |into that low of that fair value gap. And I want to see, does it rally higher
474 |405 |00:40:30 ~-~-> 00:40:36 |on dollar? And if that does this high here on es could be suspect, meaning
475 |406 |00:40:36 ~-~-> 00:40:40 |that it's just a run on buy stops or anyone short. And then we could look to
476 |407 |00:40:40 ~-~-> 00:40:45 |see it traded into that 420, or lower, but it has to do so in price. All we're
477 |408 |00:40:45 ~-~-> 00:40:48 |doing is anticipating the likelihood of that right now.
478 |409 |00:41:41 ~-~-> 00:41:45 |What I'm doing is on my attention is going through Euro dollar, and I'm
479 |410 |00:41:45 ~-~-> 00:41:48 |telling you, like, what are you looking at Euro dollar for? I'm looking at Euro
480 |411 |00:41:49 ~-~-> 00:41:55 |I'm looking at the POUND DOLLAR. I'm looking at the dollar index. I'm looking
481 |412 |00:41:55 ~-~-> 00:42:02 |at the relationships of that triad and trying to get a measure for where risk
482 |413 |00:42:02 ~-~-> 00:42:09 |is, is it risk going or risk off? And euro is just consolidating. It hasn't
483 |414 |00:42:09 ~-~-> 00:42:15 |really done much at all since around 730 it's been in consolidation. Dollar, like
484 |415 |00:42:15 ~-~-> 00:42:20 |I said, it's came off its lows at 103 and I'm still looking for that 103 13 to
485 |416 |00:42:20 ~-~-> 00:42:30 |be broken to the upside and how we trade there hasn't gone below on Dollar Index.
486 |417 |00:42:30 ~-~-> 00:42:40 |Hasn't gone lower than the low formed at 954, 954, is low, and now we have es
487 |418 |00:42:40 ~-~-> 00:42:41 |coming back down
488 |419 |00:42:42 ~-~-> 00:42:43 |below these highs here.
489 |420 |00:42:50 ~-~-> 00:42:52 |Okay, dollars looking favorable now.
490 |421 |00:42:57 ~-~-> 00:43:02 |So now what we're going to do is we're going to wait to see if this high stays
491 |422 |00:43:02 ~-~-> 00:43:10 |in place. If we break lower and create a fair value gap in here, between where,
492 |423 |00:43:12 ~-~-> 00:43:16 |between this low and the high that's formed. We're using that price leg
493 |424 |00:43:16 ~-~-> 00:43:19 |there. So inside of this range,
494 |425 |00:43:22 ~-~-> 00:43:29 |this is retraction. It's done. What is taken
495 |426 |00:43:30 ~-~-> 00:43:36 |by side here with this rally up so inside of this price leg, we're
496 |427 |00:43:36 ~-~-> 00:43:46 |anticipating now a fair value at the form, and if it can form, I'll use that
497 |428 |00:43:46 ~-~-> 00:43:51 |one. Excuse me. I'll use that one to try to get a run for five handles. Now I
498 |429 |00:43:59 ~-~-> 00:44:01 |don't want it to go too fast from here,
499 |430 |00:44:09 ~-~-> 00:44:15 |Brett's like ICT is trying to trade it. Don't give it to him. Reprice it, lower,
500 |431 |00:44:15 ~-~-> 00:44:18 |no, fair value gap. He's going to convince everybody today he's
501 |432 |00:44:24 ~-~-> 00:44:26 |day, and I'll stay here long enough to do it.
502 |433 |00:44:33 ~-~-> 00:44:38 |Okay, so you can see already, like if we were using turtle soup, turtle soup
503 |434 |00:44:38 ~-~-> 00:44:43 |would be that run above and just going in there and shorting it because we have
504 |435 |00:44:43 ~-~-> 00:44:48 |a diverse and suiting the Dow and NASDAQ and es making higher high style didn't
505 |436 |00:44:48 ~-~-> 00:44:49 |do that,
506 |437 |00:44:52 ~-~-> 00:44:53 |all right, so
507 |438 |00:44:56 ~-~-> 00:45:00 |I want to see this candle here create the fair value gap right there. Don't
508 |439 |00:45:00 ~-~-> 00:45:03 |want to see it go up and have an immediate rebalance. I just want to see
509 |440 |00:45:03 ~-~-> 00:45:06 |it close this camel, open another one, then trade up into it, but not take out
510 |441 |00:45:06 ~-~-> 00:45:10 |that low yet. I don't want to see that happen yet. It looks
511 |442 |00:45:10 ~-~-> 00:45:17 |like it looks like it's run. Dollar index is nicely ran up into the level I
512 |443 |00:45:17 ~-~-> 00:45:23 |would want to see beautiful, beautiful. And we do have a fair value gap here.
513 |444 |00:45:29 ~-~-> 00:45:33 |So you can do one of two things here in your practice, you can set a limit order
514 |445 |00:45:34 ~-~-> 00:45:40 |here at this high plus one tick, and then use a stop of five handles. And
515 |446 |00:45:42 ~-~-> 00:45:45 |then you then use a take profit of five handles, or you
516 |447 |00:45:48 ~-~-> 00:45:51 |can wait for it if it can trade up there. And that's like I said, I'm
517 |448 |00:45:51 ~-~-> 00:45:56 |running the risk of not participating on this one because it's already running
518 |449 |00:45:56 ~-~-> 00:46:05 |and not giving a return back to it, which is fine. But you didn't get in
519 |450 |00:46:05 ~-~-> 00:46:09 |ICT. I know there's lots of moves that I don't participate in, just like you're
520 |451 |00:46:09 ~-~-> 00:46:09 |going to discover.
521 |452 |00:46:19 ~-~-> 00:46:25 |Now we have a breaker. Okay? So while I don't want to utilize this as my entry,
522 |453 |00:46:25 ~-~-> 00:46:30 |I do want to bring it to your attention, because it's here now the breaker is
523 |454 |00:46:30 ~-~-> 00:46:36 |where we have a high, a low and a higher high, where it has taken buy side, as I
524 |455 |00:46:36 ~-~-> 00:46:41 |outlined, in real time, this buy side that's been taken our attention goes to
525 |456 |00:46:41 ~-~-> 00:46:46 |the down move prior to the Second theory, higher high. So, in other words,
526 |457 |00:46:46 ~-~-> 00:46:55 |in short, the low between the two highs. So where's the down close? In that, in
527 |458 |00:46:55 ~-~-> 00:47:02 |that low here, these candles entirely, all that range, 123123,
528 |459 |00:47:14 ~-~-> 00:47:22 |so inside this range, that is a bearish breaker. So let's just say it goes up
529 |460 |00:47:22 ~-~-> 00:47:26 |into this fair value gap here. You can short it, but you have to incorporate
530 |461 |00:47:26 ~-~-> 00:47:31 |this, because it can trade up into that as well. Because it's a it's a fair
531 |462 |00:47:31 ~-~-> 00:47:38 |value gap within the breaker. So ideally, I'd really want it to trade up
532 |463 |00:47:38 ~-~-> 00:47:46 |into here, but it may be asking too much of it. So I'm going to do a lower
533 |464 |00:47:46 ~-~-> 00:47:50 |probability entry. If we can go right above this high here to see it one more
534 |465 |00:47:50 ~-~-> 00:47:55 |time, pump into that once more I'll go short risk five handles and see if we
535 |466 |00:47:55 ~-~-> 00:47:56 |can get five handle run. I'm
536 |467 |00:48:09 ~-~-> 00:48:19 |the liquidity is obviously sitting right below 4014, 25, so, 401425, all this
537 |468 |00:48:19 ~-~-> 00:48:25 |smooth lows here, their cell stops resting below that. So if Smart Money
538 |469 |00:48:25 ~-~-> 00:48:30 |has sold short up here, collecting what the buy stops. So they sold to those buy
539 |470 |00:48:30 ~-~-> 00:48:34 |stops with this run here. So where are they going to try to get out at ideally,
540 |471 |00:48:34 ~-~-> 00:48:37 |market efficiency paradigm is they're going to buy from sellers at a lower
541 |472 |00:48:37 ~-~-> 00:48:43 |price markets here, where are sellers at a lower price below these equal lows.
542 |473 |00:48:56 ~-~-> 00:49:03 |I can enter here, but my five handles doesn't provide me enough shield, where
543 |474 |00:49:03 ~-~-> 00:49:06 |we are in that range, with this fair value gap, which is also one of the
544 |475 |00:49:06 ~-~-> 00:49:10 |things you have to contend with when you're trying to take entries just
545 |476 |00:49:10 ~-~-> 00:49:14 |because you feel confident it's going to go to a specific level, you still have
546 |477 |00:49:14 ~-~-> 00:49:19 |to consider the risk, and just because you might be right about where it's
547 |478 |00:49:19 ~-~-> 00:49:23 |going, you can't chase it. You got to trade. You got to trade in a premium if
548 |479 |00:49:23 ~-~-> 00:49:27 |you're going short, that means trading in a up close candle. It's one of the
549 |480 |00:49:27 ~-~-> 00:49:31 |filters that, many times, is going to serve you better than you realize. Now,
550 |481 |00:49:31 ~-~-> 00:49:37 |if you can sell short and up close candles and buy and down close candles,
551 |482 |00:49:37 ~-~-> 00:49:41 |you're giving yourself an advantage that most traders don't realize when they're
552 |483 |00:49:41 ~-~-> 00:49:42 |trying to do injuries do.
553 |484 |00:50:17 ~-~-> 00:50:19 |Take it into this one immediately. That's what I'm watching, waiting for.
554 |485 |00:50:28 ~-~-> 00:50:30 |I just pressed that button.
555 |486 |00:50:33 ~-~-> 00:50:35 |Took forever to get it in there. I
556 |487 |00:50:50 ~-~-> 00:50:54 |now you just submit to it. If it takes you out, that's fine. If it stops you
557 |488 |00:50:54 ~-~-> 00:51:02 |out, it's fine. And you want to submit to the idea that how much time does it
558 |489 |00:51:02 ~-~-> 00:51:09 |take once you enter the trade? How much time does it take for you to see it move
559 |490 |00:51:09 ~-~-> 00:51:12 |in your favor? Or if it stops you out? How fast did it take you to stop out? Do
560 |491 |00:51:49 ~-~-> 00:51:53 |Now, obviously I'm using a fair value gap entry, but I'm using the context of
561 |492 |00:51:53 ~-~-> 00:52:00 |that breaker so it kind of like allows for more of the things I like to look
562 |493 |00:52:00 ~-~-> 00:52:06 |for in price action, but framing it is, you know, being utilized with other
563 |494 |00:52:06 ~-~-> 00:52:10 |tools, but hopefully you can least see that the reason why I'm entering is in
564 |495 |00:52:10 ~-~-> 00:52:13 |that fair value gap right here. Okay, now
565 |496 |00:52:21 ~-~-> 00:52:25 |there's a small little volume imbalance in here. I want to see it trade through
566 |497 |00:52:25 ~-~-> 00:52:32 |that and not get back above it once it does go below it. Now you reduce the
567 |498 |00:52:32 ~-~-> 00:52:37 |risk. Put it right above the breaker that way. If I'm stopped out, it's a
568 |499 |00:52:37 ~-~-> 00:52:42 |small little loss. Now, all you're doing is studying price action, watching. Does
569 |500 |00:52:42 ~-~-> 00:52:49 |it still continuously deliver wanting to get down into I have it sit through this
570 |501 |00:52:49 ~-~-> 00:52:54 |lower here, but if I had more, let's go back to this idea where the sell side is
571 |502 |00:52:54 ~-~-> 00:53:00 |okay, but when you're practicing, you want to have a five for five, five risk
572 |503 |00:53:00 ~-~-> 00:53:08 |five, gain. I want to see it right here, stay heavy and go lower. That would be
573 |504 |00:53:08 ~-~-> 00:53:12 |an immediate rebalance. In other words, kind of like a fair value gap, return
574 |505 |00:53:12 ~-~-> 00:53:19 |and drops. I want to see es remain heavy. I want to see the dollar climb
575 |506 |00:53:19 ~-~-> 00:53:22 |back up into 103 16 area.
576 |507 |00:53:27 ~-~-> 00:53:31 |And also you want to indicate in your journal that you're trading ahead of
577 |508 |00:53:31 ~-~-> 00:53:37 |FOMC. So you're in a market climate that is not conducive for high precision.
578 |509 |00:53:37 ~-~-> 00:53:43 |It's not conducive for low resistance, liquidity run means the easy salad days
579 |510 |00:53:43 ~-~-> 00:53:47 |type trading that that's not, that's not where we're at. But you want to practice
580 |511 |00:53:47 ~-~-> 00:53:50 |in these conditions, because by practicing in these conditions, you're
581 |512 |00:53:50 ~-~-> 00:53:56 |preparing yourself, really, for the best. When the market's more free to
582 |513 |00:53:56 ~-~-> 00:54:01 |move, in other words, when it's easier to see it rally or or drop into levels
583 |514 |00:54:01 ~-~-> 00:54:04 |that you expected when it's this real sudden movement, all one favor, just
584 |515 |00:54:04 ~-~-> 00:54:09 |digging into it, that's the type of trades I teach my students to look for.
585 |516 |00:54:09 ~-~-> 00:54:14 |I look for that as a signature in the marketplace, versus just simply, well,
586 |517 |00:54:14 ~-~-> 00:54:17 |the markets are moving the day, the markets are trading. So therefore, let
587 |518 |00:54:17 ~-~-> 00:54:25 |me just go out here and try to make money. That, to me, is not enough. My
588 |519 |00:54:25 ~-~-> 00:54:29 |eyes watching how we traded that low, I want to see it trade to that low and
589 |520 |00:54:29 ~-~-> 00:54:33 |expand quickly to get these sell stops. That's what I'm looking for.
590 |521 |00:54:39 ~-~-> 00:54:43 |Just a little bit of a movement up $1 so far. I want to see it really get
591 |522 |00:54:43 ~-~-> 00:54:46 |aggressive and dig into that 103 16 and higher. I.
592 |523 |00:55:08 ~-~-> 00:55:12 |Now you want to remove the risk because you've gone into new sell side, if it
593 |524 |00:55:12 ~-~-> 00:55:15 |stops you out at this point, who cares? But because we went to this low here,
594 |525 |00:55:16 ~-~-> 00:55:20 |the market can go back and revisit premium arrays and still not go to that
595 |526 |00:55:20 ~-~-> 00:55:26 |sell side, which is the reason why I've removed the risk, and now you just
596 |527 |00:55:26 ~-~-> 00:55:30 |submit to either one. Either it stops you, which you're fine with, it'll be
597 |528 |00:55:30 ~-~-> 00:55:35 |stopped in profit and it would be a favorable outcome for the exercise, or
598 |529 |00:55:35 ~-~-> 00:55:39 |it goes to your limit order and it closes your case study out, and you log
599 |530 |00:55:39 ~-~-> 00:55:43 |it and you record immediately. You don't go to social media and parade around, or
600 |531 |00:55:43 ~-~-> 00:55:46 |if you get stopped out, you don't go to social media and complain about it. You
601 |532 |00:55:46 ~-~-> 00:55:53 |go right to your journal. You journal your entry suggesting what all the
602 |533 |00:55:53 ~-~-> 00:55:58 |things positively that you did in the trade, the observations. Now you saw it
603 |534 |00:55:58 ~-~-> 00:56:02 |trade down there, but it didn't take the limit order and it was way significantly
604 |535 |00:56:02 ~-~-> 00:56:06 |enough to blow it. They could have done it. There you go. So there you go. Ice
605 |536 |00:56:06 ~-~-> 00:56:09 |T's never going to do a live trade. He's never going to call the market. He's
606 |537 |00:56:09 ~-~-> 00:56:13 |never going to explain it. But yet, here I am doing it. How about that? It's
607 |538 |00:56:13 ~-~-> 00:56:19 |almost like it's pre recorded. Hindsight. Is that precise enough for
608 |539 |00:56:19 ~-~-> 00:56:26 |you? So what you want to do is you want to go through how much time, how much
609 |540 |00:56:26 ~-~-> 00:56:29 |time did it take for that trade to deliver? Obviously, I did a little bit
610 |541 |00:56:29 ~-~-> 00:56:33 |more than five handles, but, you know, I have to work with what the market's
611 |542 |00:56:33 ~-~-> 00:56:37 |going to give me, right folks. So right away you should be thinking, and your
612 |543 |00:56:37 ~-~-> 00:56:40 |corners your mouth should be aching because you watched all this happened,
613 |544 |00:56:40 ~-~-> 00:56:44 |and you can't believe it, I know, but this stuff happens every single day.
614 |545 |00:56:45 ~-~-> 00:56:48 |It's been happening for the last 30 years. For me, it's been happening
615 |546 |00:56:48 ~-~-> 00:56:54 |before I was born. Okay? These markets are absolutely rigged. Okay? They're
616 |547 |00:56:54 ~-~-> 00:56:59 |absolutely rigged. There's no randomness to it. The only thing that is going to
617 |548 |00:56:59 ~-~-> 00:57:03 |be random is your emotional impulses. When you're not equipped to know how to
618 |549 |00:57:03 ~-~-> 00:57:08 |trade, if you don't know what you're looking for, you're going to lose. If
619 |550 |00:57:08 ~-~-> 00:57:13 |you know a model that you know what you're looking for, then you can aim for
620 |551 |00:57:13 ~-~-> 00:57:22 |that, and you can measure your progress. But you're not okay. You're not going to
621 |552 |00:57:22 ~-~-> 00:57:26 |hit the target, unless you have a target, what's the target? Consistency?
622 |553 |00:57:26 ~-~-> 00:57:31 |You're looking for something that repeats over and over again that's
623 |554 |00:57:31 ~-~-> 00:57:35 |highly precise. I want you to take a step back for a moment, okay? And folks
624 |555 |00:57:35 ~-~-> 00:57:39 |understand this is not bragging, because 10 handles is 10 handles. It's not that
625 |556 |00:57:39 ~-~-> 00:57:44 |big of a deal, okay, but you can make a mountain of a career doing that. But I
626 |557 |00:57:44 ~-~-> 00:57:47 |want you to take a look at what this chart looks like right here, right now,
627 |558 |00:57:47 ~-~-> 00:57:54 |and I want you to go back and listen to the recording. There was absolutely zero
628 |559 |00:57:54 ~-~-> 00:58:03 |anxiety. There was zero emotion. I was not hopped up on goofballs. I wasn't
629 |560 |00:58:03 ~-~-> 00:58:07 |worrying about the trade panning out. I gave you exactly what I was thinking
630 |561 |00:58:07 ~-~-> 00:58:12 |because of 30 years experience doing it, I'm lending my experience and what I'm
631 |562 |00:58:12 ~-~-> 00:58:16 |thinking while I'm watching price. I told you the very things I was looking
632 |563 |00:58:16 ~-~-> 00:58:24 |at, why I was considering it. I told you about the breaker. I told you how to
633 |564 |00:58:24 ~-~-> 00:58:30 |frame the breaker, where it should stop. Did it stop at the high of the breaker,
634 |565 |00:58:31 ~-~-> 00:58:40 |to the tick, baby, to the tick. This up close candle, this up close candle, and
635 |566 |00:58:40 ~-~-> 00:58:43 |that up close candle that's all my breaker,
636 |567 |00:58:46 ~-~-> 00:58:50 |that look at this price right here, okay, up here in upper left hand corner,
637 |568 |00:58:50 ~-~-> 00:58:51 |you see
638 |569 |00:58:54 ~-~-> 00:59:04 |that right there, that high is 402, 5.75 the high of this candle comes in at
639 |570 |00:59:04 ~-~-> 00:59:12 |4026, even. So it went one tick, one tick, which is a mohawk. Remember price
640 |571 |00:59:12 ~-~-> 00:59:19 |has to go up one tick to allow delivery of perfect old high. Think about if you
641 |572 |00:59:19 ~-~-> 00:59:25 |had a limit order. It has to move. The difference between the bid and ask is
642 |573 |00:59:25 ~-~-> 00:59:30 |one tick, so it has to do what it has to at least go up there to offer the
643 |574 |00:59:30 ~-~-> 00:59:36 |opportunity for that high to be booked. But that framework, think about the
644 |575 |00:59:36 ~-~-> 00:59:40 |questions that many of you have asked and you probably are listening and now
645 |576 |00:59:40 ~-~-> 00:59:45 |had the answer given to you. How do you know ICT, how do you know that when it
646 |577 |00:59:45 ~-~-> 00:59:50 |was rallying like that, how do you know that it won't go above that high there?
647 |578 |00:59:50 ~-~-> 00:59:54 |Think about what I went through this morning with you. Okay, I opened up the
648 |579 |00:59:54 ~-~-> 00:59:58 |chart. I showed you this shaded area down here. Okay, we'll go back into that
649 |580 |00:59:58 ~-~-> 01:00:03 |regular trading hours. There. So the difference between yesterday's closing
650 |581 |01:00:03 ~-~-> 01:00:09 |price and regular trading session to where we opened today at 930 that
651 |582 |01:00:09 ~-~-> 01:00:13 |separation, that distinction between those two price points, is important.
652 |583 |01:00:14 ~-~-> 01:00:21 |That's the opening range gap. So if we open to a premium, it opens like it does
653 |584 |01:00:21 ~-~-> 01:00:26 |here. It rallies, comes back down rallies once more, perfect, perfect.
654 |585 |01:00:26 ~-~-> 01:00:30 |We're watching now to see that fail. Go back and listen to my commentary. I'm
655 |586 |01:00:30 ~-~-> 01:00:33 |not concerned it's going to keep rallying higher, because it's already
656 |587 |01:00:33 ~-~-> 01:00:40 |done. Enough of that overnight. This is a trap. This down here allows them to do
657 |588 |01:00:40 ~-~-> 01:00:49 |what chase it longs can say, Okay, I missed the initial run up here. Bears go
658 |589 |01:00:49 ~-~-> 01:00:53 |short. Here, they put their stop loss rate above this high. The market drops
659 |590 |01:00:53 ~-~-> 01:00:57 |down into the opening range, gap high, and then rallies. Go back and listen to
660 |591 |01:00:57 ~-~-> 01:01:01 |my commentary. I did not take the short that I was interested in if it would
661 |592 |01:01:01 ~-~-> 01:01:03 |have kept that candle with a fair amount. Candle with a fair value gap, I
662 |593 |01:01:03 ~-~-> 01:01:07 |would have shorted that then. But because I was using the dollar index to
663 |594 |01:01:07 ~-~-> 01:01:13 |filter, it kept me from doing what getting in prematurely. Plus the
664 |595 |01:01:13 ~-~-> 01:01:18 |structure really wasn't all that. It was just not, it was not there yet. So I
665 |596 |01:01:18 ~-~-> 01:01:20 |mentioned that how looking at the other markets, I said, Okay, it looks like
666 |597 |01:01:20 ~-~-> 01:01:23 |NASDAQ is looking like it wants to make a higher wants to make a higher high.
667 |598 |01:01:23 ~-~-> 01:01:28 |Let's take a look at NASDAQ real quick. I hope you guys can see this is not just
668 |599 |01:01:28 ~-~-> 01:01:32 |random, made up stuff. It's a logic behind all this. So there's those
669 |600 |01:01:32 ~-~-> 01:01:35 |relative equal highs. I said we would like to run up above that. It did that.
670 |601 |01:01:36 ~-~-> 01:01:44 |Look at the Dow. See that divergence there. That's why I was trusting that we
671 |602 |01:01:44 ~-~-> 01:01:48 |were not going to go higher. And that was absolutely a good breaker. Yes, so
672 |603 |01:01:48 ~-~-> 01:01:52 |let's go back to ES. I'm answering all your questions. If you just listen to
673 |604 |01:01:52 ~-~-> 01:01:55 |the boring stuff, folks, it's there. There's a lot of people. I started
674 |605 |01:01:55 ~-~-> 01:01:58 |watching this video and said he's talking too much, and missed the entire
675 |606 |01:01:58 ~-~-> 01:02:04 |move. But this down closed candle, these series of three down closed candles, is
676 |607 |01:02:04 ~-~-> 01:02:10 |the context behind that run up here that stops out anyone that was going short
677 |608 |01:02:10 ~-~-> 01:02:14 |here because they want to do what they want to fade to get right. Okay, the
678 |609 |01:02:14 ~-~-> 01:02:19 |algorithm knows that is going to come down, rally through it all the buy stops
679 |610 |01:02:19 ~-~-> 01:02:23 |are gone. Why is that useful? Just like I mentioned to you, Smart Money will
680 |611 |01:02:23 ~-~-> 01:02:27 |sell short to those buy stops. They're going to sell to those buyers at a
681 |612 |01:02:27 ~-~-> 01:02:30 |higher price. Smart Money is accumulating.
682 |613 |01:02:38 ~-~-> 01:02:42 |Oh my goodness. We're getting Sleepless in Allen, Texas tonight, so we're
683 |614 |01:02:42 ~-~-> 01:02:44 |looking at this area here,
684 |615 |01:02:49 ~-~-> 01:02:54 |up in that area, all here, that's where smart money is going short. Okay, so
685 |616 |01:02:54 ~-~-> 01:02:59 |they're selling short there with the expectation that they want to do what,
686 |617 |01:02:59 ~-~-> 01:03:04 |buy it back at a cheaper price, but who would be willing to sell it to them at a
687 |618 |01:03:04 ~-~-> 01:03:08 |cheaper price? Think about who would who would be willing to do that? Anyone
688 |619 |01:03:08 ~-~-> 01:03:12 |that's long here or went long on here. It's idea that this is support where
689 |620 |01:03:12 ~-~-> 01:03:18 |they're going to place their stop loss, where they just got wrecked. So when
690 |621 |01:03:18 ~-~-> 01:03:27 |smart money's considering entering a short the market efficiency paradigm
691 |622 |01:03:27 ~-~-> 01:03:31 |that I'm teaching you, the way they engage price. They're not looking at
692 |623 |01:03:31 ~-~-> 01:03:36 |patterns. They're looking at who they can take to the slaughterhouse. They
693 |624 |01:03:36 ~-~-> 01:03:42 |killed the people that were short when it ran above it. They're done. They're
694 |625 |01:03:42 ~-~-> 01:03:48 |stopped out with a loss. Anyone that was short here gets stopped out. Anyone that
695 |626 |01:03:48 ~-~-> 01:03:52 |went long down here, oh, it's gap and go dead. No, it's not. Listen to what ICT
696 |627 |01:03:52 ~-~-> 01:03:55 |said. We're going to rally up, take a new high, and then we're going to watch
697 |628 |01:03:55 ~-~-> 01:04:00 |and see, does it peter out? And it did. The market goes back down and takes out
698 |629 |01:04:00 ~-~-> 01:04:04 |the longs. So who's who's really right? Who I told you was going to be right?
699 |630 |01:04:04 ~-~-> 01:04:12 |The smart money selling here, and they're going to be buying down here. So
700 |631 |01:04:12 ~-~-> 01:04:20 |when I'm looking at price, I'm looking at this to that, shorting, buying it
701 |632 |01:04:20 ~-~-> 01:04:24 |back. But because I told you I was going to limit myself just using a fair value
702 |633 |01:04:24 ~-~-> 01:04:28 |gap as my entry, I have lots of tools I could have very easily sold short up
703 |634 |01:04:28 ~-~-> 01:04:32 |here, broke my rules just for ego purposes, and I wrote it down here.
704 |635 |01:04:32 ~-~-> 01:04:35 |That's that would not have been what I went into this teaching for. I want to
705 |636 |01:04:35 ~-~-> 01:04:38 |teach you how to do what look for your model. So if your model is the 2022,
706 |637 |01:04:39 ~-~-> 01:04:45 |model, you just watch me do it. You literally just watch me do it. The
707 |638 |01:04:45 ~-~-> 01:04:50 |context is selling at a premium. If you can't get that price and you're
708 |639 |01:04:50 ~-~-> 01:04:54 |submitting yourself to what like I taught in the 2022, model, wait for this
709 |640 |01:04:54 ~-~-> 01:04:59 |placement. This is the shift in market structure. Right below that low. Then.
710 |641 |01:05:00 ~-~-> 01:05:03 |We have two fair value gaps. You can sell short in here, but you got to
711 |642 |01:05:03 ~-~-> 01:05:06 |incorporate this fair value gap too. Why? Because it's inside the breaker,
712 |643 |01:05:06 ~-~-> 01:05:11 |which is what I outlined here. The market does what it rallies up. I am not
713 |644 |01:05:11 ~-~-> 01:05:15 |concerned about it making a higher high, because we already have at that high
714 |645 |01:05:16 ~-~-> 01:05:21 |versus this high. The Dow has made a lower high. That's SMT, that's tipping
715 |646 |01:05:21 ~-~-> 01:05:28 |its hand. The algorithm is showing its cracking correlation. It's telling you,
716 |647 |01:05:28 ~-~-> 01:05:33 |much like I was telling you, that this rally is a suspect rally, meaning it's
717 |648 |01:05:33 ~-~-> 01:05:37 |only going up to take the stops out for anyone that's short. Don't believe me.
718 |649 |01:05:37 ~-~-> 01:05:42 |Go back and listen to the recording. It'll be there, but I'm not concerned
719 |650 |01:05:42 ~-~-> 01:05:45 |about it going above that high, because I know that the algorithm is going to
720 |651 |01:05:45 ~-~-> 01:05:51 |refer back to that candles high, because the context that books price in this
721 |652 |01:05:51 ~-~-> 01:05:55 |algorithm repeats. It's not random. It's not milling, it's, it's, it's not
722 |653 |01:05:56 ~-~-> 01:06:01 |milling through a whole different range of ideas and retail things. It's not
723 |654 |01:06:01 ~-~-> 01:06:08 |looking for what retail logic is it going to use today? It's going where
724 |655 |01:06:08 ~-~-> 01:06:12 |orders would be resting. It's going where inefficiencies are. That's the
725 |656 |01:06:12 ~-~-> 01:06:19 |only thing it does, folks, that's it. Or it does this sideways. It's going up for
726 |657 |01:06:19 ~-~-> 01:06:22 |buy side. Or it's going up to go into a premium fair value, yet some kind of
727 |658 |01:06:22 ~-~-> 01:06:28 |inefficiency, or it's dropping to old lows where there's sell side, or it's
728 |659 |01:06:28 ~-~-> 01:06:33 |dropping down to some discount inefficiency. Now look at it through the
729 |660 |01:06:33 ~-~-> 01:06:39 |lens of the 2022, model. For a second, we see a high. The market rallies up.
730 |661 |01:06:39 ~-~-> 01:06:46 |Did I use any other time frame? No, I traded right off of this time frame here
731 |662 |01:06:46 ~-~-> 01:06:53 |using the tools that I've already taught you in 2022, so if this market's going
732 |663 |01:06:53 ~-~-> 01:06:59 |up, and you're new and you're afraid, I'm afraid to trade. ICT, how do I get
733 |664 |01:06:59 ~-~-> 01:07:03 |over the fear of that? Follow the rules. The rules say, wait for it to go lower
734 |665 |01:07:03 ~-~-> 01:07:08 |where it's got to go below a short term swing low it does. So here trades below
735 |666 |01:07:08 ~-~-> 01:07:16 |it go through. Does it have a fair value gap? Remember the range I told you, from
736 |667 |01:07:16 ~-~-> 01:07:19 |here to here? Let's go back up through that I'm
737 |668 |01:07:24 ~-~-> 01:07:30 |in that range, all of this is protraction. So in that range, when it
738 |669 |01:07:30 ~-~-> 01:07:34 |starts to drop back down, we're going to be anticipating what forming a fair
739 |670 |01:07:34 ~-~-> 01:07:41 |value gap. There was two of them here. And here the rules I gave you in a 2022,
740 |671 |01:07:41 ~-~-> 01:07:47 |model last year was, if you have two fair value gaps, you have to at least
741 |672 |01:07:47 ~-~-> 01:07:51 |allow for price to trade up into that second one, because it can, but more
742 |673 |01:07:51 ~-~-> 01:07:59 |specifically, because we have that breaker there, because the breaker is a
743 |674 |01:07:59 ~-~-> 01:08:05 |factor here, we have to at least make an allowance for I'm the wrong candle.
744 |675 |01:08:05 ~-~-> 01:08:11 |Sorry. You have to make an allowance for it trading up to the high of that so I'm
745 |676 |01:08:11 ~-~-> 01:08:16 |not concerned if it goes to that candles high in one tick or two. I'm not
746 |677 |01:08:16 ~-~-> 01:08:20 |concerned about that. I'm not freaking out that it's going to go above that
747 |678 |01:08:20 ~-~-> 01:08:25 |high, because if it did that, that's fine. That means I'm going to go bullish
748 |679 |01:08:25 ~-~-> 01:08:28 |now, because it would erase and cancel the SMT divergence between the Dow and
749 |680 |01:08:29 ~-~-> 01:08:35 |its lower high when the NASDAQ and ES, like we show here, made higher highs. So
750 |681 |01:08:35 ~-~-> 01:08:39 |it would be a stop out on one trade, but it would give me insight into being a
751 |682 |01:08:39 ~-~-> 01:08:45 |net long trader the rest of the day because it should not have failed. See
752 |683 |01:08:45 ~-~-> 01:08:50 |the difference between fearing being stopped out and allowing. If it does,
753 |684 |01:08:50 ~-~-> 01:08:54 |then I'll change my bias. That's experience. That's someone that has been
754 |685 |01:08:54 ~-~-> 01:08:59 |here before, and I'm not reacting to price. Did anything that I outlined this
755 |686 |01:08:59 ~-~-> 01:09:04 |morning seem or indicate to you that I was reacting to anything? No, I
756 |687 |01:09:04 ~-~-> 01:09:07 |literally outlined everything you see in your charts here.
757 |688 |01:09:09 ~-~-> 01:09:12 |This is where the price was going to drive gravitate to. It was going to make
758 |689 |01:09:12 ~-~-> 01:09:13 |a higher high
759 |690 |01:09:14 ~-~-> 01:09:20 |the model for 2022 if you take the low up, well, let's just do it. There's the
760 |691 |01:09:20 ~-~-> 01:09:27 |low up to the high right there. Here's the 50% level. That's equilibrium. So we
761 |692 |01:09:27 ~-~-> 01:09:30 |have to find something as a discount below that level. Well, we have these
762 |693 |01:09:30 ~-~-> 01:09:35 |lows, this low, and then these relative equal lows here, which one's more likely
763 |694 |01:09:35 ~-~-> 01:09:39 |to have the bigger pool of liquidity below? Obviously, this one here, and
764 |695 |01:09:39 ~-~-> 01:09:45 |it's nicely below the 50% level. So we're in a discount. And we smashed all
765 |696 |01:09:45 ~-~-> 01:09:52 |the way down into it 10 handles I like to over deliver. I told you I'd give you
766 |697 |01:09:52 ~-~-> 01:09:58 |five. Give you 10, but you could have very easily if it was your exercise,
767 |698 |01:09:59 ~-~-> 01:10:04 |once it. Out to five handles, collapse it and then watch it the rest of the
768 |699 |01:10:04 ~-~-> 01:10:08 |time, using the logic that, if you were still in it, how would you be feeling
769 |700 |01:10:08 ~-~-> 01:10:13 |each time it creates a new candle lower or higher against you? This move right
770 |701 |01:10:13 ~-~-> 01:10:18 |there. That's my classic teaching of the breaker. This is what you're all
771 |702 |01:10:18 ~-~-> 01:10:23 |familiar with. But like I said, just because you watch those introductory
772 |703 |01:10:23 ~-~-> 01:10:27 |lessons, those core content lessons, that's not mentorship, that's the
773 |704 |01:10:27 ~-~-> 01:10:32 |language. My students have to know those things before they can really learn how
774 |705 |01:10:32 ~-~-> 01:10:37 |to use the things. I'm not upset about those core content lessons being shared
775 |706 |01:10:37 ~-~-> 01:10:42 |around. It was intended for it to happen. That's viral advertising. It was
776 |707 |01:10:42 ~-~-> 01:10:47 |seeds in the minds of everybody that got their hands on it. And I don't feel bad
777 |708 |01:10:47 ~-~-> 01:10:52 |about putting on my YouTube channel and my students that are mature, that are
778 |709 |01:10:52 ~-~-> 01:10:55 |able to do these things now, they don't care that those videos are up there,
779 |710 |01:10:56 ~-~-> 01:10:59 |because they know that there was 1000s of videos outside of those. That's where
780 |711 |01:10:59 ~-~-> 01:11:03 |the real mentorship was. And they're not going to help you, because they're old,
781 |712 |01:11:04 ~-~-> 01:11:09 |like you. Just watch this one here. You watched it pan out real time, exactly,
782 |713 |01:11:10 ~-~-> 01:11:16 |exactly how I teach. There was nothing contrived here, nothing random. And it
783 |714 |01:11:16 ~-~-> 01:11:19 |should bolster your confidence that what you're learning and who you're learning
784 |715 |01:11:19 ~-~-> 01:11:29 |from can do it precisely, accurately, with no emotion, no pomp, no ego, no
785 |716 |01:11:29 ~-~-> 01:11:34 |bragging. It's just the facts. This stuff works. This is the market. It is
786 |717 |01:11:34 ~-~-> 01:11:39 |the market, folks. It's not pattern stuff. It's not indicator stuff. All I
787 |718 |01:11:39 ~-~-> 01:11:45 |drew on this chart was the logic to help you see it like I see it, because the
788 |719 |01:11:45 ~-~-> 01:11:49 |entities that I dub and refer to, commonly as smart money, that's not the
789 |720 |01:11:49 ~-~-> 01:11:55 |same people you think it is. It's not a market maker. Market making is
790 |721 |01:11:55 ~-~-> 01:12:02 |algorithmic. Now there's no person that's a market maker. You may hear them
791 |722 |01:12:02 ~-~-> 01:12:08 |be referred to as a market maker, but they are a dealer. That's all they are.
792 |723 |01:12:08 ~-~-> 01:12:11 |They're not making the market. They're not controlling price, they're not
793 |724 |01:12:11 ~-~-> 01:12:15 |sending price to a specific level like this algorithm is now my question to you
794 |725 |01:12:15 ~-~-> 01:12:19 |is, is, how on earth, if there isn't an algorithm, how can it be that I can see
795 |726 |01:12:19 ~-~-> 01:12:23 |these things so precisely before the fact, and explain it to you before it
796 |727 |01:12:23 ~-~-> 01:12:27 |happens, and your real time chart paints it just like I'm showing you. Mine is
797 |728 |01:12:28 ~-~-> 01:12:33 |because there is an algorithm, and I'm sorry if that upsets your entire
798 |729 |01:12:33 ~-~-> 01:12:39 |paradigm, if that conflicts with your teachings, your mentorships, your logic,
799 |730 |01:12:39 ~-~-> 01:12:45 |your book sales, I'm sorry. I'm not meant to, you know, upset you. I'm here
800 |731 |01:12:45 ~-~-> 01:12:50 |to open your eyes to what's really going on. And I can do this every day, and
801 |732 |01:12:50 ~-~-> 01:12:54 |damn it, I'm ready to do it in court. I can do it, baby, let me do it, because
802 |733 |01:12:54 ~-~-> 01:12:55 |I'm going to smoke
803 |734 |01:12:55 ~-~-> 01:13:00 |your ass. Please, pretty please, wish it your own time. Yeah, hope
804 |735 |01:13:03 ~-~-> 01:13:05 |you found it so insightful today, folks,
805 |736 |01:13:06 ~-~-> 01:13:09 |until next time, be safe.
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