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edited by Drunk Monkey
on 2025-11-05 12:26
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1 1  == Outline ==
2 2  
3 -##02:33 -## Today’s Topic: Pushing The Button.
3 +##02:33 -## FOMC and Market Expectations
4 4  
5 -##06:10 -## This is not a signal service -.
5 +- ICT discusses the upcoming FOMC meeting, which is expected to slow down trading as traders wait for the Fed's actions.
6 +- ICT emphasizes the importance of not trying to forecast the Fed's actions, as it leads to self-deception.
7 +- The market is in a relaxed state, waiting for the opening range to complete, typically between 9:30 and 10:00.
8 +- ICT aims for a low threshold objective of five handles in the ES, rather than larger polls.
6 6  
7 -##11:18 -## Can we see a five-handle price run from wherever we are now?
10 +##06:42 -## Teaching Approach and Market Psychology
8 8  
9 -##15:54 -## This is about teaching you how to overcome fear.
12 +- ICT explains his teaching approach, focusing on low-threshold objectives to avoid the pressure of getting rich quickly.
13 +- He shares his personal experience of fear and anxiety when starting to trade, which he aims to help his students overcome.
14 +- ICT emphasizes the importance of using a demo account for practice before trading with real funds.
15 +- He discusses the fear of new traders, including his son, who is embarking on a funded account challenge.
10 10  
11 -##23:10 -## What’s going on in the markets today.
17 +##28:32 -## Fair Value Gap and Market Entry
12 12  
13 -##27:47 -## What is the risk to your account?
19 +- ICT introduces the concept of a fair value gap as a visually easy thing to find in a price chart.
20 +- He explains the importance of identifying buy-side and sell-side liquidity levels.
21 +- ICT limits his perspective to a five-minute chart to mimic the view of a trader with limited experience.
22 +- He discusses the significance of the opening range gap and the potential for trading back into that range.
14 14  
15 -##30:18 -## How do you overcome fear of entry?
24 +##53:56 -## Overcoming Fear and Anxiety
16 16  
17 -##37:01 -## When you get in front of a chart, you’re chomping at the bit but you’re also scared.
26 +- ICT shares his personal experience of fear and anxiety when he first started trading in the 1990s.
27 +- He emphasizes the importance of not overthinking and removing leverage to reduce fear.
28 +- ICT advises new traders to start with one contract and gradually increase as they gain experience.
29 +- He discusses the importance of not blocking out mistakes and learning from them.
18 18  
19 -##42:04 -## Dow has been consolidating since around 730.
31 +##54:11 -## Market Analysis and Entry Drills
20 20  
21 -##46:45 -## What’s the down close in that range?
33 +- ICT analyzes the market conditions, focusing on the dollar index and its impact on other markets.
34 +- He explains the concept of a bearish breaker and its significance in market analysis.
35 +- ICT discusses the importance of waiting for the right entry point and not rushing into trades.
36 +- He emphasizes the need for discipline and patience in trading.
22 22  
38 +##55:54 -## Live Trade Example and Explanation
39 +
40 +- ICT provides a live trade example, explaining his thought process and entry criteria.
41 +- He discusses the importance of using a fair value gap and incorporating other market conditions.
42 +- ICT explains the significance of the breaker and how it influences market behavior.
43 +- He emphasizes the importance of journaling trades and learning from both successful and unsuccessful entries.
44 +
45 +##57:33 -## Market Conditions and Trading Strategies
46 +
47 +- ICT discusses the mixed market conditions ahead of FOMC and the need for nimbleness in trading.
48 +- He explains the importance of lowering expectations and being prepared for market volatility.
49 +- ICT emphasizes the need for consistent practice in various market conditions to build trading skills.
50 +- He discusses the importance of understanding market structure and using it to inform trading decisions.
51 +
52 +##57:45 -## Smart Money and Market Efficiency
53 +
54 +- ICT explains the concept of smart money and how they engage price in the market.
55 +- He discusses the importance of understanding market inefficiencies and where orders would be resting.
56 +- ICT emphasizes the need for traders to focus on price action and not get distracted by market noise.
57 +- He explains the significance of using tools like the 2022 model to guide trading decisions.
58 +
59 +##01:12:31 -## Final Thoughts and Market Insights
60 +
61 +- ICT reflects on the importance of consistency and precision in trading.
62 +- He emphasizes the need for traders to have a target and measure their progress.
63 +- ICT discusses the importance of understanding market logic and not relying on random patterns.
64 +- He concludes by encouraging traders to practice and learn from their experiences to build long-term success.
65 +
66 +
23 23  == Transcript ==
24 24  
25 25  (% class="hover min" %)
26 -|1 |00:02:33,030 ~-~-> 00:02:47,970 |ICT: Good morning, folks. Good morning. guys give me a heads up on Twitter if the oil or the audio volume is okay. And if you could see the ES chart
27 -|2 |00:02:59,850 ~-~-> 00:03:06,540 |Thank you Leon the volume good.
28 -|3 |00:03:08,160 ~-~-> 00:03:18,780 |Not that I can do anything better than I'm doing now. My microphones volume is all the way up. I'm literally within kissing distance. So that's where we're at
29 -|4 |00:03:18,780 ~-~-> 00:03:25,050 |with this, okay? All right, just bear with me one second, okay.
30 -|5 |00:03:36,810 ~-~-> 00:03:51,720 |All right. So today, we embark on a topic that many of you have been chomping at the bit to get to, which is pushing the button. So obviously, tomorrow we have
31 -|6 |00:03:51,720 ~-~-> 00:04:03,210 |FOMC. So that creates the likelihood of a rather slow trading session. A lot of folks just waiting to see what the Fed will be doing tomorrow. Everyone's making
32 -|7 |00:04:03,210 ~-~-> 00:04:16,080 |their bets as to what to expect what not to expect? I don't know. Okay, so I'm not I don't ever try to go in to the market and try to forecast the actions of
33 -|8 |00:04:16,080 ~-~-> 00:04:29,910 |the Fed. So I think anyone that tries to do that is just fooling themselves or at least attempting to fool themselves. So while we're waiting for the morning
34 -|9 |00:04:29,910 ~-~-> 00:04:41,640 |sessions opening range to complete, which is typically 930 to 10 o'clock, we keep a relaxed view on the marketplace. I'm not trying to go in with any kind of
35 -|10 |00:04:41,640 ~-~-> 00:04:52,800 |hardline bias yet I want to let the market itself tell me what to look for. And all we're looking for this morning is a smaller opportunity to get what I teach
36 -|11 |00:04:52,800 ~-~-> 00:05:04,830 |is a low threshold objective, which is five handles in the ES. So while obvious later in the year, you'll see me do larger polls, or we're doing 2030 4050
37 -|12 |00:05:04,830 ~-~-> 00:05:15,960 |handle runs. There'll be days for that. Today's not one of them. So I kind of like want to beat on the drum of how I teach all of my students to start with,
38 -|13 |00:05:15,990 ~-~-> 00:05:25,590 |which is a really low hanging fruit objective. I believe that anyone that goes into this, with that mindset in terms of studying like that, not trying to get
39 -|14 |00:05:25,590 ~-~-> 00:05:34,710 |rich overnight, not trying to get rich, and at all really just trying to carve out an opportunity that repeats over and over again, that you like that you can
40 -|15 |00:05:34,710 ~-~-> 00:05:47,430 |find comfort in seeing, being patient looking for it, allowing the market to present as many advantageous signatures in our favor, that would warrant a price
41 -|16 |00:05:47,430 ~-~-> 00:05:59,220 |move. That is, at least by definition, the way I define it, high probability. So I'm willing to submit to a longer time than I normally am this morning, usually
42 -|17 |00:05:59,220 ~-~-> 00:06:11,190 |I do about an hour or so. And then I cut bait or whatever, I'm going to try to stay with you this morning, until we get an opportunity to fit my criteria. So
43 -|18 |00:06:11,190 ~-~-> 00:06:21,420 |I'll kind of give you the the nuts and bolts as to why I believe it should do what I expected to do. I want to preface it by saying and most of you already
44 -|19 |00:06:21,420 ~-~-> 00:06:25,560 |know this has been with me for a long time. This is not a signal service. Okay.
45 -|20 |00:06:26,340 ~-~-> 00:06:28,290 |Let me remind you what the
46 -|21 |00:06:29,280 ~-~-> 00:06:30,780 |the disclaimer here as I talk.
47 -|22 |00:06:40,410 ~-~-> 00:06:52,230 |That disclaimer will be popping up a few times during this presentation today. It is not an invitation for you to copy. It is not an invitation for you to try
48 -|23 |00:06:52,230 ~-~-> 00:07:02,640 |to fix your drawdown, it's not an invitation for you to get your last little piece of your funded account. Challenge past, okay, I'm going to give you
49 -|24 |00:07:02,880 ~-~-> 00:07:15,150 |certain exercises today. And I'm also going to tell you where I believe it's going to go. I'm going to inspire you to use your demo. Okay, I don't I don't
50 -|25 |00:07:15,150 ~-~-> 00:07:26,370 |want you to use your Live account. If you're trading with anything I say today, you're absolutely doing it wrong. And you're going to regret it. Okay, so what
51 -|26 |00:07:26,370 ~-~-> 00:07:36,690 |we're doing is I'm teaching my son, who is embarking on a funded account challenge. And I won't name the company here because I don't want to represent
52 -|27 |00:07:36,690 ~-~-> 00:07:45,090 |anybody. And I'm not suggesting that they're good or bad. I'm just saying that he's making an attempt to do so. That's where he wants to go with it. He doesn't
53 -|28 |00:07:45,090 ~-~-> 00:07:54,780 |want me to give him money to do it, which is great. But he's concerned as a new student of the markets, and he is absolutely green. He doesn't know how to do
54 -|29 |00:07:54,780 ~-~-> 00:08:06,270 |much of anything. So his concern is, He's fearful of getting in. And that was one of the initial things I had in the 90s. When I first started trading
55 -|30 |00:08:06,270 ~-~-> 00:08:17,790 |commodities. I was fearful. I didn't know really what I was looking for. And it was manifesting itself in my anxiety about when and what market I should be
56 -|31 |00:08:17,790 ~-~-> 00:08:29,280 |trading, what timeframe should I be trading? If you're new to all of this market stuff and even ICT content? It can be a little bit bewildering. Like what
57 -|32 |00:08:29,280 ~-~-> 00:08:38,220 |timeframe should I use? What market should I trade? You know, what setup what's the, what's the thing I'm looking for. And the reason why I teach the way I do
58 -|33 |00:08:38,250 ~-~-> 00:08:51,060 |is I present lots of different approaches to skinning that cat, but it allows you to bring in your own personality. Now today, unfortunately, I'm going to try
59 -|34 |00:08:51,060 ~-~-> 00:09:07,350 |to force one particular approach to getting in. And I'm going to try to utilize a fair value gap, which is predominantly the most visually easy thing to find in
60 -|35 |00:09:07,350 ~-~-> 00:09:17,910 |a price chart. Much like looking at equal lows that we target for sell side liquidity, that's where we think that the market is likely to draw too much like
61 -|36 |00:09:18,090 ~-~-> 00:09:29,820 |we expect equal highs to be a draw for buy side liquidity. Those types of things are pretty generic. And they're they're not hiding from you. In fact, it's next
62 -|37 |00:09:29,820 ~-~-> 00:09:45,960 |to impossible to not see them. Meaning all we're looking for is a clear indication that the markets likely to reach into some level of buy side or sell
63 -|38 |00:09:45,960 ~-~-> 00:09:59,970 |side. And I'm submitting to not looking at anything this morning because I want to kind of like present the opportunity in the closest manner to someone that
64 -|39 |00:10:00,000 ~-~-> 00:10:10,260 |doesn't know what I'm teaching. So I'm limiting my perspective to just this five minute chart. Now, you don't want to be doing this, obviously, the market just
65 -|40 |00:10:10,260 ~-~-> 00:10:19,320 |opened up. By the way. You don't want to do this if you're trying to trade with real funds. But I'm trying to pantomime as close as I can to someone that would
66 -|41 |00:10:19,320 ~-~-> 00:10:27,210 |have a limited perspective, which is someone that doesn't look at higher timeframe charts, someone that doesn't look at you much of anything except for
67 -|42 |00:10:27,210 ~-~-> 00:10:33,330 |the chart they're looking at at the time. And usually, it's a one minute chart or a five minute chart, because me and other people on the internet have
68 -|43 |00:10:33,330 ~-~-> 00:10:43,020 |showcased opportunities that we're presenting on those timeframes. So therefore, the audience members will gravitate to those timeframes, thinking that that's
69 -|44 |00:10:43,020 ~-~-> 00:10:52,020 |the only way to do it. When it's not, it's just, it's a good teaching medium for me, because it gives lots of opportunity Plus, it gives no room for any delay,
70 -|45 |00:10:52,470 ~-~-> 00:11:05,490 |like it's right there on the on the fly. And this five minute chart may not be the timeframe I'm going to use on I pulled that up to show the Monday closing
71 -|46 |00:11:05,520 ~-~-> 00:11:16,170 |regular session price, which is that 3984. So just sticking to this timeframe, here, we're opening up with a premium premium in the sense that we are opening
72 -|47 |00:11:16,170 ~-~-> 00:11:28,740 |up with a gap from yesterday's close. So we've worked higher, overnight. And if you go to your regular trading hours tab and click on that, there's the gap
73 -|48 |00:11:28,740 ~-~-> 00:11:38,940 |we're looking at here, okay. So it's a very significant gap. Whenever it's like that, I like to see a little bit of a move to the upside to draw in the public,
74 -|49 |00:11:39,120 ~-~-> 00:11:47,100 |make them want to chase it. And then typically what it will generally do not all the time, but generally, it'll want to move back down inside of that range. And
75 -|50 |00:11:47,100 ~-~-> 00:12:05,490 |what range Am I really, really speaking about this, outline that now. So using the regular session close price here, up to the opening price this morning. So
76 -|51 |00:12:05,490 ~-~-> 00:12:06,180 |that gap,
77 -|52 |00:12:07,680 ~-~-> 00:12:08,580 |which is significant.
78 -|53 |00:12:12,120 ~-~-> 00:12:23,040 |Going into this morning, I want you to focus on the potential for just trading back into that range that's shaded here. We're not trying to make the case that
79 -|54 |00:12:23,040 ~-~-> 00:12:34,590 |it's going to trade all the way back down to 3984 50. That's not an argument I'm trying to pose to you. What I'm suggesting is, can we see a five handle price
80 -|55 |00:12:34,590 ~-~-> 00:12:44,850 |run from wherever we trade up to and I'm not trying to pick the top, I'm going to let the market indicate that it's stopped, at least for the short term, going
81 -|56 |00:12:44,850 ~-~-> 00:12:55,110 |higher. I'm not trying to go long, I'm going to try to look for something that gets into that range here. So I'm giving you a directional bias that I'm looking
82 -|57 |00:12:55,110 ~-~-> 00:13:04,890 |to operate in doesn't mean that it can't go higher doesn't mean it can't go down to the previous session closing price. We're not trying to forecast that.
83 -|58 |00:13:05,280 ~-~-> 00:13:17,160 |Remember, the argument here is how does one conquer fear of getting in? How do you conquer that, and you probably had anxiety, especially if you got lucky
84 -|59 |00:13:17,160 ~-~-> 00:13:27,000 |enough to get a funded account where you've passed the challenge. And now they give you the funded account. And then suddenly, you're met with this new
85 -|60 |00:13:27,000 ~-~-> 00:13:38,550 |anxiety, this new. Let me go back to the electronic session. Now. Just be mindful that this shaded area here. That's our opening range gap. So where we
86 -|61 |00:13:38,550 ~-~-> 00:13:46,230 |closed yesterday, or previous day to where we open, that's what's being highlighted here. Okay, so when I dropped down into the electronic trading
87 -|62 |00:13:46,230 ~-~-> 00:14:01,860 |hours, that shaded area is what we're representing there. Okay. So, when I first started in 1992, I was immediately in a rush to get the account opened up. But
88 -|63 |00:14:01,860 ~-~-> 00:14:12,840 |then once the account was was opened, I was frozen with fear. And everything I was looking at on the chart seemed like it was Greek. Whereas I thought before I
89 -|64 |00:14:12,840 ~-~-> 00:14:25,350 |knew what I was looking for when I really didn't. But I was fearful and paranoid about doing anything. Because I was afraid of that first trade being what wrong.
90 -|65 |00:14:26,250 ~-~-> 00:14:34,860 |I was afraid of taking a loss. I was afraid of doing it incorrectly. And no one knew what I was doing. They didn't know I had money in the account. They didn't
91 -|66 |00:14:34,860 ~-~-> 00:14:43,350 |know me as a trader that I wasn't online. I wasn't inner circle trader yet. I was the guy that just opened up a trading account with Fox investments. Paying
92 -|67 |00:14:43,350 ~-~-> 00:14:54,930 |$100 per round her per contract. Yes, it was robbery. But that's what we were told that was the normal back then. So a discount broker was like Lindwall doc
93 -|68 |00:14:54,930 ~-~-> 00:15:08,340 |where you pay $37 per contract. So I was fearful my So much in the vein that most of you would have doing it wrong. But I was also afraid of because I only
94 -|69 |00:15:08,340 ~-~-> 00:15:20,850 |had $2,500 in the account, which was extremely under capitalized, like I didn't have enough money. So what I was thinking was, not only do I have to be right
95 -|70 |00:15:20,850 ~-~-> 00:15:29,130 |about my trade, but I also have to be right about my entry not going into too much drawdown because as soon as I put the trade on, they're going to do what
96 -|71 |00:15:29,190 ~-~-> 00:15:36,780 |they're going to take that commission rate out of that. So I gotta cover $100 right away. So if I'm trading the Green Market, like soybeans, I have to have at
97 -|72 |00:15:36,780 ~-~-> 00:15:49,620 |least two cents of a move. Because each penny move is 50 cent. I'm sorry, $50, much like an ES mini contract. So I was already overthinking everything. And
98 -|73 |00:15:49,620 ~-~-> 00:16:01,020 |that anxiety caused me to be much like a deer in headlights. And let me also talk about, you know, real quick. This, this is about teaching you how to
99 -|74 |00:16:01,020 ~-~-> 00:16:09,390 |overcome fear, it's not about teaching you to follow me and use as a signals, because I know some of you are here just for that very reason. If you're not
100 -|75 |00:16:09,390 ~-~-> 00:16:17,250 |listening to what I'm teaching, it's not going to be beneficial to you. I could get out here and push the button and eat right all day long, but it's not making
101 -|76 |00:16:17,250 ~-~-> 00:16:23,820 |you better. It's not teaching you how to do it on your own, which is really what I'm trying to do here is the only reason why I'm even doing live streams is it,
102 -|77 |00:16:24,090 ~-~-> 00:16:33,540 |show you how to do it. And my son who's hopefully gonna learn from this. And he wasn't privy to all this stuff that I'm talking about now, because he wasn't
103 -|78 |00:16:33,540 ~-~-> 00:16:47,010 |interested in in trading. He's typical teenage kid video games and in high school antics that kids do. But my concern, much like all of yours, if you've
104 -|79 |00:16:47,010 ~-~-> 00:16:55,620 |ever experienced fear, and some of you probably are fearful doing it wrong, even in a demo account, I've had many people reach out to me that they have ruined
105 -|80 |00:16:55,650 ~-~-> 00:17:02,700 |several demo accounts, not knowing what they're doing. And you're just so frustrated, they can't even get to the point where you can push a button there,
106 -|81 |00:17:03,270 ~-~-> 00:17:14,130 |which is extreme anxiety. But you're placing too much emphasis on the outcome being perfect for you. In the beginning, as I'll show you today, you want to
107 -|82 |00:17:14,130 ~-~-> 00:17:24,360 |exercise and do drills. And I'm gonna teach you how to cope with the initial fear of getting into a market move, and not worrying about that outcome being
108 -|83 |00:17:24,390 ~-~-> 00:17:31,830 |profitable. Now, before I close the session, obviously, my goal is to find something that moves five handles. That's that's obviously the intention today.
109 -|84 |00:17:32,550 ~-~-> 00:17:39,720 |But I'm also going to present opportunities where I want you to think about what you're being shown in the chart, I'm going to point to something and ask you to
110 -|85 |00:17:40,140 ~-~-> 00:17:51,300 |conceptualize what it is I'm pointing at? And does it make sense to utilize that as an entry, versus the ones that you'll actually see me push the button on. Now
111 -|86 |00:17:51,330 ~-~-> 00:18:00,690 |it's a it's a skill set that you'll obviously learn over time. But you can't just expect with a live account, whether it be a funded account, or your actual
112 -|87 |00:18:00,690 ~-~-> 00:18:08,670 |funds in a traditional broker, you can't expect those types of conditions just materialize magic, and all of a sudden, now you'd have to trade because you're
113 -|88 |00:18:08,670 ~-~-> 00:18:17,160 |using real money now, which is the reason why I'm an opponent, to anyone teaching that people should just learn how to trade with real money. You don't
114 -|89 |00:18:17,160 ~-~-> 00:18:27,390 |learn how to trade with real money, you learn how to engage risk, where you didn't have that before in paper trading and demonstrating. But you learned how
115 -|90 |00:18:27,390 ~-~-> 00:18:34,980 |to trade with a demo. That's what a demo does. The demo is not just to familiarize yourself with the platform or broker. It's absolutely to teach you
116 -|91 |00:18:34,980 ~-~-> 00:18:45,450 |how to trade. And anyone that says otherwise. Is this a fall. And this is the near to the bottom line. So we're looking at a market that has a little bit of a
117 -|92 |00:18:45,450 ~-~-> 00:18:53,100 |mixed bag to this morning, much like we had yesterday I was calling most of everything you saw yesterday. Yes. Well, my Twitter feeds, you can go back and
118 -|93 |00:18:53,160 ~-~-> 00:19:06,630 |take a look at that. But today we have the dollar index. It's come off its lows from 930 back into the range that was formed from 915 to 930. I'd like to see it
119 -|94 |00:19:06,630 ~-~-> 00:19:21,030 |mount a run above. You're welcome to check your charts. I don't want to talk too much. make the mistake of losing audio, the high one or 313. I want to see it.
120 -|95 |00:19:22,860 ~-~-> 00:19:37,140 |Trade above that that would indicate there's likeliness to see the shaded area on EDS be revisited. And again, we're just looking for an opportunity to frame a
121 -|96 |00:19:37,140 ~-~-> 00:19:46,980 |five handle run, which is not a lot. And right away. You should be thinking yeah, how much could I be risking with that? Well, when you first encounter
122 -|97 |00:19:48,240 ~-~-> 00:19:58,050 |doing entry drills where you're practicing with your demo account or your paper trading account, which is how you do this. You're using one contract. Now I know
123 -|98 |00:19:58,050 ~-~-> 00:20:04,320 |some of you out there that are trying to make a name for yourself. trolling and making up a bunch of nonsense. You're gonna go out there, and you're gonna say,
124 -|99 |00:20:04,320 ~-~-> 00:20:12,150 |but I trade 40 contracts with 30 contracts and blow my account out in front everybody on live streams and pretend it doesn't happen. What we're doing is
125 -|100 |00:20:12,150 ~-~-> 00:20:26,370 |trying to teach you how to overcome the fear, that fear that anxiety is rooted in number one to leverage right away, the easiest thing to do to remove fear or
126 -|101 |00:20:26,400 ~-~-> 00:20:38,970 |to squash it in any anxiety is to remove the leverage. dial that back. Just because you're funded account says you can trade with 15 contracts, that's not
127 -|102 |00:20:38,970 ~-~-> 00:20:48,000 |an invitation for you as my student to think that that's appropriate. That's a that's a lot of risk for someone that's just now getting a funded account. I
128 -|103 |00:20:48,000 ~-~-> 00:20:56,760 |mean, you're you're you're new, you don't have the experience, you have no idea what it feels like to watch an account balance fluctuate with that measure of
129 -|104 |00:20:58,140 ~-~-> 00:21:09,540 |capital on each point fluctuation. So you want to start with one contract, and you want to desensitize yourself, because that same five PIP handle or summer at
130 -|105 |00:21:09,540 ~-~-> 00:21:21,300 |five point run. In ETS, you can do the math. And overtime when you can graduate to two contracts, three contracts for contracts or even opt into that 15
131 -|106 |00:21:21,300 ~-~-> 00:21:38,220 |contracts per trade. You'll have the experience working with price action that's associated with real monetary loss and potential gain. Views can't simply go out
132 -|107 |00:21:38,220 ~-~-> 00:21:44,670 |and say well, I'm ready for it. Now. I'm gonna, I'm gonna go out there and just plunge into the whatever the amount of contracts, they allow me, I'm going to do
133 -|108 |00:21:44,670 ~-~-> 00:21:45,030 |that.
134 -|109 |00:21:47,100 ~-~-> 00:21:57,120 |And when I was teaching predominantly, the forex markets, I mentioned that many times is because you can leverage as much as you can leverage with a broker, you
135 -|110 |00:21:57,120 ~-~-> 00:22:05,370 |should not be doing that. Because all you're doing is increasing the likelihood that you're gonna blow, you're gonna lose, you're gonna be fearful the entire
136 -|111 |00:22:05,370 ~-~-> 00:22:13,140 |time you're in the marketplace. So you want this to be very boring, you don't have any kind of emotion attached to it. Any kind of excitement, no kind of
137 -|112 |00:22:13,470 ~-~-> 00:22:27,930 |fanfare. If you remove all that your attention is going to be on price action, not how much you can make, or worrying about how much you're going to lose. And
138 -|113 |00:22:27,930 ~-~-> 00:22:37,770 |it's unfortunately the the case with most new traders is that they, they want to gamble much like the lottery, and how much they can put on the bet. And just
139 -|114 |00:22:37,770 ~-~-> 00:22:46,740 |hope it works out in their favor. Not realizing that if they just did very little risk, they can take lots of trades, and still stay in the game long
140 -|115 |00:22:46,740 ~-~-> 00:22:54,540 |enough to get the eventual outcome that they're looking for. If it's not get rich, quick, I'm sorry, get rich overnight real quick, because that's not what
141 -|116 |00:22:54,540 ~-~-> 00:23:10,050 |you should be doing here. So far, we're just marking time on es hasn't done too much of anything. I'm looking at the NASDAQ. It's not doing much at all either.
142 -|117 |00:23:10,050 ~-~-> 00:23:25,230 |But the Dow is certainly weaker. It's coming off of its run higher. It's posted this morning, earlier one. And I'm watching there's a volume imbalance at one Oh
143 -|118 |00:23:25,230 ~-~-> 00:23:38,820 |3.06 On the one minute chart of dollar. So my eyes there want to see, respect that and still pressing to 123 13 that rallying higher on dollar would be risk
144 -|119 |00:23:38,820 ~-~-> 00:23:50,580 |off near term meaning that it's easier for foreign currencies like British Pound versus US dollar Dow NASDAQ ES to trade softer go lower. It doesn't mean I'm
145 -|120 |00:23:50,580 ~-~-> 00:24:01,950 |picking the top. It's not an indication that it's going to crash. All I'm saying is is it puts things in motion that would be likely supportive of weaker, lower
146 -|121 |00:24:01,950 ~-~-> 00:24:13,230 |prices, we already gapped higher it's already had that initial move higher. There's this consolidation. They broke out traders that use this type of idea to
147 -|122 |00:24:13,620 ~-~-> 00:24:17,910 |to buy on a breakout. They're already in this here
148 -|123 |00:24:25,470 ~-~-> 00:24:50,610 |I'm going to drop down into a one minute chart now. Actually it's a skill 34321. Okay, so the exercise I'm teaching you today when we get into a setting where
149 -|124 |00:24:50,610 ~-~-> 00:24:59,010 |there's opportunity there because there's nothing here yet. Remember the first 30 minutes as a trader trading with ETs. You want to be willing to submit to the
150 -|125 |00:24:59,010 ~-~-> 00:25:09,750 |first 30 minutes it doesn't mean that you can't find a setup, if it's there, if it's obvious than obviously, then you can. But as a rule of thumb, general rule
151 -|126 |00:25:09,750 ~-~-> 00:25:19,350 |of thumb, you want to submit to those first 30 minutes. Because sometimes there's reports that come out at 945. Not today, not every day. But sometimes
152 -|127 |00:25:19,350 ~-~-> 00:25:31,530 |that occurs. Also, the initial move right off the opening, generally is not the right one to be placing yourself in front of risk. So meaning, it could be a
153 -|128 |00:25:31,530 ~-~-> 00:25:40,260 |Judas swing, a fake a fake move, okay, so we want to allow the marketplace to, to draw in the gamblers that want to trade in here, the first couple minutes of
154 -|129 |00:25:40,260 ~-~-> 00:25:50,520 |trading, okay, and you want to just relax, slow down and remind yourself that you have plenty of time, plenty of time, you have the entire day to find these
155 -|130 |00:25:50,700 ~-~-> 00:25:57,360 |measly little five handles, and you don't want to rush, just simply to get it out of the way. Because that's also another thing that you'll you're going to
156 -|131 |00:25:57,360 ~-~-> 00:26:08,280 |feel like, you know, you want to train, you know, you're also initially anxious about doing it incorrectly. So one of the things you're gonna feel is, alright,
157 -|132 |00:26:08,340 ~-~-> 00:26:17,580 |I'm in front of the charts, I have my account, it's funded, or it's real. And I got to just get in here and get it out of the way. So that way I can make my
158 -|133 |00:26:17,580 ~-~-> 00:26:26,760 |money and closer charts and just just be away from it, what you're doing is you're conditioning yourself to hate trading. I went through a phase like that,
159 -|134 |00:26:27,210 ~-~-> 00:26:37,500 |after a few accounts that I bloom in the 90s. That feeling of, I just want to get in there and get my money and run away, I was conditioning myself to be
160 -|135 |00:26:37,500 ~-~-> 00:26:48,930 |afraid of it. Which is what made it almost impossible for me to grind through to a point of not being fearful, I have so many execution models that lets me get
161 -|136 |00:26:48,930 ~-~-> 00:27:00,660 |into a trade. I have lots of opportunities to get into a trade that allows me to participate in a move. And the reason why I have so many weapons like that is
162 -|137 |00:27:00,660 ~-~-> 00:27:12,990 |because that was one of my strongest barriers, I was afraid to enter. Because I didn't trust the model that I was working with was a good one. I didn't have
163 -|138 |00:27:12,990 ~-~-> 00:27:21,270 |enough experience seeing it work. I was in a hurry to scopes, I saw a few of them work. And sometimes they didn't work, but I blocked that part out. And
164 -|139 |00:27:21,270 ~-~-> 00:27:31,800 |that's another thing you need to be aware of you when you do these exercises. And these drills. Don't block out the times you do it wrong. Don't do that. You
165 -|140 |00:27:31,800 ~-~-> 00:27:39,480 |want to make sure that you learn what you did incorrectly in those and don't try to put blinders on thinking, Okay, well, that didn't happen. No, you need to
166 -|141 |00:27:39,480 ~-~-> 00:27:46,650 |know what you're doing. Because if you don't address the issues that you're doing correctly, they're gonna repeat is redundant ly funds, you know what's
167 -|142 |00:27:46,650 ~-~-> 00:27:55,110 |going to happen. Eventually it's going to wear down that equity or wear down your mental capital and between both of them you will blow your account. So
168 -|143 |00:27:55,110 ~-~-> 00:28:06,990 |preservation of capital was the first and foremost important role in speculation whether you're doing it with paper trading demo or eventually in lifelines. So
169 -|144 |00:28:06,990 ~-~-> 00:28:09,840 |right away again, we're submitting that first 30 minutes
170 -|145 |00:28:15,120 ~-~-> 00:28:22,500 |nothing's happened so far today. Dollars firming up, it still hasn't gotten above that 123 13 level,
171 -|146 |00:28:22,650 ~-~-> 00:28:23,820 |which is what I'm looking for.
172 -|147 |00:28:24,419 ~-~-> 00:28:38,069 |I want to see it get above that $1 One zero 3.13 That's the level I referred to earlier as weakness and we're looking for that right there. Okay, now right away
173 -|148 |00:28:38,789 ~-~-> 00:28:43,829 |your eyes should jump to these clean lows right there you see that?
174 -|149 |00:28:44,550 ~-~-> 00:28:47,550 |See that right there? Now
175 -|150 |00:28:48,540 ~-~-> 00:28:59,010 |what's resting below those lows sellside liquidity, this low here we had a displacement below it. We're trading back up into the imbalance here
176 -|151 |00:29:04,110 ~-~-> 00:29:08,460 |so the risk would have to be on the chart
177 -|152 |00:29:15,240 ~-~-> 00:29:21,480 |to 140 20 swing high
178 -|153 |00:29:23,250 ~-~-> 00:29:38,220 |40 25.75. Okay, so do we offer an opportunity to see five candles in this area here to that level here? Yes.
179 -|154 |00:29:43,410 ~-~-> 00:29:44,430 |That's not bright enough.
180 -|155 |00:30:18,930 ~-~-> 00:30:31,140 |Okay so now what I'm doing is as I'm watching the ES here I want to see it dropped below this the trade back inside this shaded area and also gravitate
181 -|156 |00:30:31,140 ~-~-> 00:30:38,520 |towards the sell side liquidity and I'm watching the dollar index there's a small little imbalance that it's trading on let me tell you the candle right now
182 -|157 |00:30:40,320 ~-~-> 00:30:50,070 |if you look at the one minute chart is the 944 big green candle on the one minute chart I'm watching does it respect that number does it want to send
183 -|158 |00:30:50,130 ~-~-> 00:30:53,790 |dollar higher while I'm watching ES.
184 -|159 |00:32:11,490 ~-~-> 00:32:12,120 |So what we're
185 -|160 |00:32:12,120 ~-~-> 00:32:19,440 |doing is the initial drill is five for five, that means you're going to risk five handles to make five handles. Alright, you know, there's gonna be
186 -|161 |00:32:19,440 ~-~-> 00:32:33,750 |individuals in here thinking, Oh, that doesn't make money, it makes money. But you don't need a high rate of multiples four. You don't need a five to one
187 -|162 |00:32:33,780 ~-~-> 00:32:44,790 |attend to 121 are multiple to be profitable. If you have a strike rate that's pretty high, you can do one for one. But while you're training yourself, you
188 -|163 |00:32:44,790 ~-~-> 00:32:51,690 |don't need that, you can just do one for one, because you're conditioning yourself to get over that fear of missing, we're not missing the trading,
189 -|164 |00:32:51,810 ~-~-> 00:32:55,230 |because you're afraid you're gonna miss a move, we're going to take a loss
190 -|165 |00:33:01,980 ~-~-> 00:33:14,910 |still watching that dollar this one here is not as clean as I would have liked to have seen it, I would have rather had not seen that little move here. But I'm
191 -|166 |00:33:14,910 ~-~-> 00:33:22,110 |giving it an opportunity to see if I can see that run up $1 on that small little buys and
192 -|167 |00:33:22,260 ~-~-> 00:33:23,250 |sells on efficiency.
193 -|168 |00:33:26,280 ~-~-> 00:33:35,190 |And again, we're still in first in that first 30 minutes of trading. So this is all part of that. What are you looking for ICT? What are you waiting for? What
194 -|169 |00:33:35,190 ~-~-> 00:33:42,420 |do you look to see? What do you want to find in price action? What is your focus? What don't you like? That's what I'm doing right here. This is how you
195 -|170 |00:33:42,420 ~-~-> 00:33:50,070 |mentor someone. It's just not blindly going in there and just taking a trade. Now let's just say for instance, let's play devil's advocate for a moment say to
196 -|171 |00:33:50,070 ~-~-> 00:34:04,020 |start the break lower. Okay, say breaks lower, and I haven't gotten in yet. I can use the top of that shaded area and the midpoint of this wick here, which
197 -|172 |00:34:04,020 ~-~-> 00:34:11,340 |will be consequent encroachment. Now, what if it's traded down here but didn't trade below here yet, and traded back up into it? I don't have a problem with
198 -|173 |00:34:11,340 ~-~-> 00:34:18,750 |that taken as an entry. Now you might not be comfortable with something like that. I'm not trying to convince you that that's the model for you. All I'm
199 -|174 |00:34:18,750 ~-~-> 00:34:30,030 |saying is is how do you overcome fear of entry? That's the whole topic today. But I'm wanting to trade with an entry with a fair value. That's what I'm trying
200 -|175 |00:34:30,030 ~-~-> 00:34:40,860 |to force my focus on that way. At some point, it's going to give it to me. I just have to wait long enough for it to happen. It's going to happen every day.
201 -|176 |00:34:40,860 ~-~-> 00:34:54,150 |There's one but you don't have the patience if you're new to wait for it. And since we have nothing in here did I go short? No. Why? Because there's no fair
202 -|177 |00:34:54,150 ~-~-> 00:35:03,210 |value got. I wanted to see a small little portion of that down close candle left open. Then a new candlestick chart, and then it trade up into that, then I would
203 -|178 |00:35:03,210 ~-~-> 00:35:09,960 |have, I would have so short rate there, targeting these lows. But if I don't have what I'm looking for in the chart, I'm not just going to think, well, you
204 -|179 |00:35:09,960 ~-~-> 00:35:19,680 |know, I got video games to play, I got to do something here, or my wife's going to be asking me do something, and I won't be in front of my charts. Not that she
205 -|180 |00:35:19,680 ~-~-> 00:35:29,460 |does that. But you know how it is in real world, you get pulled away from doing this. And they're wonderful little distractions. So Dollar Index did not respect
206 -|181 |00:35:29,460 ~-~-> 00:35:36,870 |that fair value gap, which is what I was watching for, it went a little bit deeper than I wanted to see, but it does have a wick. If you look at the wick on
207 -|182 |00:35:36,870 ~-~-> 00:35:48,480 |the candle, one minute chart for dx, why the 943 low, that wick on the low end of the candle. We've just dropped down into that. So I'm trying to watch and see
208 -|183 |00:35:48,480 ~-~-> 00:36:00,390 |if we get some kind of respect there and go higher. But I don't like where we are with ES. So we might need to go one more time. Higher when es NASDAQ looks
209 -|184 |00:36:00,390 ~-~-> 00:36:09,270 |like it wants to flirt with a higher high also so but the Dow is this adult right now. We pull up there real quick, since there's really nothing here at the
210 -|185 |00:36:09,510 ~-~-> 00:36:26,580 |time for ES my focus is primarily on that market. So that's the difference between the Dow on the one minute chart, lower sloppier. And then on NASDAQ. We
211 -|186 |00:36:26,580 ~-~-> 00:36:45,480 |have that. So we have relatively equal highs, it looks like we could run up in there and hit that. Yes. What is so we have relative equal highs here. Small
212 -|187 |00:36:45,480 ~-~-> 00:36:51,810 |little gap here. So if we trade it down there to that, to 23 to 28, that would be five handles.
213 -|188 |00:37:01,950 ~-~-> 00:37:04,230 |dollars just hanging around, still not confirming or
214 -|189 |00:37:04,230 ~-~-> 00:37:05,100 |denying anything.
215 -|190 |00:37:15,510 ~-~-> 00:37:28,800 |This is the part. This is the time that is excruciating for inexperienced traders, you feel like okay, you showed up, you're here it says gonna push the
216 -|191 |00:37:28,800 ~-~-> 00:37:36,300 |button today. And you're ready, you're chomping at the bit, you can't wait. And that's exactly how it feels. When you get in front of a chart. When you have
217 -|192 |00:37:36,300 ~-~-> 00:37:44,940 |life funds at your disposal. You want to do something, but then you're also scared. What if I do it wrong, everything's a second guess. And you're in a
218 -|193 |00:37:44,940 ~-~-> 00:37:57,030 |hurry, you're just in a hurry to get into this to do something. And that's the trap, you have to still remember what you learned about trading in a demo, you
219 -|194 |00:37:57,030 ~-~-> 00:38:04,620 |have to remember those lessons, you have to go back on that experience. Because if you don't refer to that or even have gained any of that experience, you're
220 -|195 |00:38:04,620 ~-~-> 00:38:12,180 |going to be impulsively just pressing the button, then there has to be something in the chart to do a entry on just can't just reduce this gamble and see what
221 -|196 |00:38:12,180 ~-~-> 00:38:19,830 |happens. We're saying that it can go up to that 4028 level, I'm not interested in taking that. But that's a move as if it is
222 -|197 |00:38:25,680 ~-~-> 00:38:36,900 |that I want to use a fair value gap today. That's That's my focus. I'm confident it'll form. I'm just trying to exercise discipline to show you what it's like to
223 -|198 |00:38:36,900 ~-~-> 00:38:47,970 |sit through all the other price action moves. I don't care who's making money on YouTube. I don't care how many people's posting things on Twitter. That's not my
224 -|199 |00:38:47,970 ~-~-> 00:38:56,130 |trade, that's not your trade, you can't go back in time and enter when they did if it was even profitable at all. So you have to submit yourself to this process
225 -|200 |00:38:56,130 ~-~-> 00:39:13,500 |of learning to pop up through and hit that 4020 level. Still very, very mixed. Which is typical ahead of FOMC. You have to be a lot more nimble on days like
226 -|201 |00:39:13,500 ~-~-> 00:39:24,480 |this and also by lowering your expectations. So now think about what's actually occurring here. The markets gapped up at the open, we got a small little rally
227 -|202 |00:39:24,480 ~-~-> 00:39:34,590 |higher and we've dropped but we have dropped aggressively there was no real energetic drop. See that the only thing we had here was this drop down here any
228 -|203 |00:39:34,590 ~-~-> 00:39:44,130 |quickly with the relationships of intermarket analysis with the dollar. It canceled out any short here. And if you missed it, you'll it'll be in the
229 -|204 |00:39:44,130 ~-~-> 00:39:52,860 |recording, go back and listen to it. There's the pop the 4020 So, in my mind, I'm thinking anyone that's already trying to sell short, the gap higher in
230 -|205 |00:39:52,890 ~-~-> 00:40:03,480 |initial high that's being formed here. This run here kills them so now I'm watching very closely how that dollar index go back to that original fear of a
231 -|206 |00:40:03,480 ~-~-> 00:40:18,990 |gap that means the one at the candle at 944 One minute Dollar Index if we rally here because we cut through candles we're not supply and demand cut through the
232 -|207 |00:40:18,990 ~-~-> 00:40:26,610 |candles that's been formed over the last seven or eight of them go back to that fair value got the candle we're in right now basically is already traded down
233 -|208 |00:40:26,610 ~-~-> 00:40:36,750 |into that low that fair value gap and I want to see does it rally higher on dollar and if that does this high here on es could be suspect meaning that it's
234 -|209 |00:40:36,750 ~-~-> 00:40:46,200 |just a run on by stocks are in one short and then we could look to see it traded into that for 20 or lower but it has to do so in price all we're doing is
235 -|210 |00:40:46,200 ~-~-> 00:40:48,030 |anticipating the likelihood of that right now
236 -|211 |00:41:03,030 ~-~-> 00:41:03,450 |back
237 -|212 |00:41:41,610 ~-~-> 00:41:49,680 |and what I'm doing is I'm my attention is going through Eurodollar and I'm telling you like what are you looking at Euro dollar for I'm looking at Euro I'm
238 -|213 |00:41:49,680 ~-~-> 00:42:03,210 |looking at the POUND DOLLAR. Looking at the dollar index, I'm looking at the relationships of that triad and trying to get a measure for where risk is is it
239 -|214 |00:42:03,210 ~-~-> 00:42:15,870 |risk on or risk off. And euros just consolidating, it hasn't really done much at all. Since around 730 It's been consolidation dollar like I said it's came off
240 -|215 |00:42:15,870 ~-~-> 00:42:31,500 |its lows at 123. And I'm still looking for that 123 13 to be broken to the upside and how we trade there hasn't gone below $1 index hasn't gone lower than
241 -|216 |00:42:31,500 ~-~-> 00:42:43,440 |the low formed at 954 54 is low. And now we have es going back down below these highs here
242 -|217 |00:42:50,340 ~-~-> 00:42:52,050 |okay dollars looking favorable now.
243 -|218 |00:42:57,630 ~-~-> 00:43:10,500 |So now what we're gonna do is we're gonna wait to see if this high stays in place. If we break lower and create a fair value gap in here, between where
244 -|219 |00:43:12,030 ~-~-> 00:43:30,840 |between this low and the high that's formed. We're using that price like they're so inside of this range. This is protraction it's done what is taken by side
245 -|220 |00:43:31,290 ~-~-> 00:43:48,030 |here with this rally up. So inside of this price leg we're anticipating now a fair way to get the form and if it can form I'll use that one. Excuse me. I'll
246 -|221 |00:43:48,030 ~-~-> 00:43:51,810 |use that one to try to get a run for five handles
247 -|222 |00:43:59,070 ~-~-> 00:44:01,110 |now I don't want it to go too fast from here
248 -|223 |00:44:09,119 ~-~-> 00:44:11,429 |breads like ICTs trying to trade it don't give it to them
249 -|224 |00:44:14,309 ~-~-> 00:44:18,599 |repricing lower no Bear Bear you got he's gonna convince everybody today
250 -|225 |00:44:23,940 ~-~-> 00:44:26,610 |can't do it all day. And I'll stay here long enough to do it
251 -|226 |00:44:33,270 ~-~-> 00:44:43,410 |Okay, so you can see already like if we were using turtle suit, Turtle suit would be that run above and this going in there in shorting it because we had a
252 -|227 |00:44:43,410 ~-~-> 00:44:49,230 |divergence between the Dow and NASDAQ and es making higher highs Dow didn't do that.
253 -|228 |00:44:52,289 ~-~-> 00:44:53,429 |Alright, so
254 -|229 |00:44:56,849 ~-~-> 00:45:02,909 |I want to see this candle here. Create the fair value got right there. I don't want to see it go up and have an immediate rebalance, I just want to see it.
255 -|230 |00:45:03,269 ~-~-> 00:45:12,509 |Close this candle open another one, venturi didn't do it. But not take out that low yet. I don't want to see that happen yet. It looks like it looks like it's
256 -|231 |00:45:12,509 ~-~-> 00:45:23,339 |time to run. Dollar index is nicely ran up into the level I want to see. Beautiful, beautiful. And we do have a fear of a gap here.
257 -|232 |00:45:29,789 ~-~-> 00:45:42,809 |So you can do one of two things here. In your practice, you can set a limit order here at this high plus one tick. And then you just stop a five handles and
258 -|233 |00:45:42,809 ~-~-> 00:45:55,019 |then use a take profit of five handles. Or you can wait for it to trade up there. And that's like I said, running the risk of not participating on this one
259 -|234 |00:45:55,019 ~-~-> 00:46:08,099 |because it's already running and not giving a return back to it. Which is fine. But you didn't get in it, I know there's lots of moves, I don't participate in
260 -|235 |00:46:08,429 ~-~-> 00:46:09,629 |this like you're going to discover
261 -|236 |00:46:19,380 ~-~-> 00:46:30,660 |now we have a breaker. Okay, so while I don't want to utilize this as my entry, I do want to bring it to your attention because it's here now, the breaker is
262 -|237 |00:46:30,750 ~-~-> 00:46:41,790 |where we have a high, a low and a higher high, where it has taken by site as I outlined in real time, this buyside that's been taken, our attention goes to the
263 -|238 |00:46:41,790 ~-~-> 00:46:55,470 |down move prior to the Second theory hired high. So in other words, in short, the low between the two highs. So where's the down close in in that in that low
264 -|239 |00:46:55,470 ~-~-> 00:47:06,660 |here these candles entirely all that range 123123.
265 -|240 |00:47:14,070 ~-~-> 00:47:26,820 |So inside this range that is a bearish breaker. So let's just say it goes up into this fair value gap here. You can short it but you have to incorporate this
266 -|241 |00:47:27,270 ~-~-> 00:47:39,720 |because it can trade up into that as well. Because it's it's a bit of a gap within the breaker. So ideally, I'd really want it to trade up into here but it
267 -|242 |00:47:39,720 ~-~-> 00:47:51,690 |may be asking too much of it. So I'm going to do a lower probability entry. If we can go right above this high here just hit it one more time pumped into that
268 -|243 |00:47:51,720 ~-~-> 00:47:56,370 |once more I'll go short risk five handles and see if we can get five he'll run
269 -|244 |00:48:09,059 ~-~-> 00:48:25,469 |the liquidity is obviously sitting right below 4014 25. So 4014 to five all this mood lows here their sales thoughts resting below that. So if Smart Money has
270 -|245 |00:48:25,469 ~-~-> 00:48:34,049 |sold short up here, collecting what the buy stops, so they sold to those buy stops with this run here. So where are they going to try to get out at ideally,
271 -|246 |00:48:34,529 ~-~-> 00:48:42,989 |market efficiency paradigm is they're going to buy from sellers at a lower price markets here where our sellers at a lower price below these equal lows.
272 -|247 |00:48:56,280 ~-~-> 00:49:07,320 |I can enter here. But my five handles doesn't provide me enough shield where we are in that range with this fair value gap. Which is also one of the things you
273 -|248 |00:49:07,320 ~-~-> 00:49:14,820 |have to contend with when you're trying to take entries. Just because you feel confident he's going to go to a specific level, you still have to consider the
274 -|249 |00:49:14,820 ~-~-> 00:49:24,120 |risk. And just because you might be right about where it's going. You can't chase it. You got to try it you got to trade in a premium if you're going short.
275 -|250 |00:49:24,480 ~-~-> 00:49:35,400 |That means trading in a up close candle is one of the filters that many times is going to serve you better than you realize now. If you can sell short and up
276 -|251 |00:49:35,400 ~-~-> 00:49:42,690 |close candles and buy in down close candles, you're giving yourself an advantage that most traders don't realize when you're trying to do entries
277 -|252 |00:49:55,770 ~-~-> 00:49:58,500 |me that now the one next
278 -|253 |00:50:17,039 ~-~-> 00:50:19,979 |I'm going to save it in this one immediately. That's what I'm watching waiting for
279 -|254 |00:50:28,650 ~-~-> 00:50:30,000 |now, I just pressed that button
280 -|255 |00:50:33,869 ~-~-> 00:50:35,009 |took forever to get it in there
281 -|256 |00:50:49,980 ~-~-> 00:50:51,390 |okay, now you just submit to it.
282 -|257 |00:50:52,710 ~-~-> 00:51:04,650 |If it takes you out, that's fine. If it stops you out, it's fine. And you want to submit to the idea that how much time does it take? Once you enter the trade?
283 -|258 |00:51:06,120 ~-~-> 00:51:12,900 |How much time does it take for you to see it move in your favor? Or if it stops you out? How fast did it take yourself out?
284 -|259 |00:51:49,050 ~-~-> 00:52:00,540 |Now obviously, I'm using a fair value gap entry, but I'm using the context of that breaker. So it kind of like allows for more of the things I like to look
285 -|260 |00:52:00,540 ~-~-> 00:52:10,890 |for in price action. But framing is being utilized with other tools. But hopefully you at least see that the reason why I'm entering is in that fair pay
286 -|261 |00:52:10,890 ~-~-> 00:52:12,990 |gap right here. Okay.
287 -|262 |00:52:21,510 ~-~-> 00:52:32,580 |Now, there's a small little volume imbalance in here, I want to see a tree through that and not get back above it once it does go below it. Now you reduce
288 -|263 |00:52:32,580 ~-~-> 00:52:42,870 |the risk, put it right above the breaker. That way, if I'm stopped out, it's a small little loss. And all you're doing is studying price action watching does
289 -|264 |00:52:42,870 ~-~-> 00:52:54,390 |it still continuously deliver, wanting to get down into sit to this low right here. But if I had more, let's go back to this idea where the sell side is okay.
290 -|265 |00:52:56,310 ~-~-> 00:53:08,760 |But when you're practicing, you want to have a five for five, five risk five game I want to see right here stay heavy and go lower, that would be an
291 -|266 |00:53:08,760 ~-~-> 00:53:20,940 |immediate rebalance. Number, it's kind of like a fear of a gap return and drops. I want to see Yes, remain heavy. I want to see the dollar climb back up into one
292 -|267 |00:53:20,940 ~-~-> 00:53:22,080 |of the 316 area.
293 -|268 |00:53:27,360 ~-~-> 00:53:38,250 |And also you want to indicate in your journal that you're trading ahead of FOMC. So you're in a market climate that is not conducive for high precision. It's not
294 -|269 |00:53:38,280 ~-~-> 00:53:47,790 |conducive for low resistance liquidity run means the easy salad days like trading that's not that's not where we're at. But you want to practice in these
295 -|270 |00:53:47,790 ~-~-> 00:53:57,900 |conditions because by practicing in these conditions, you're preparing yourself really for the best when the markets more free to move and when it's when it's
296 -|271 |00:53:57,900 ~-~-> 00:54:07,410 |easier to see it rally or or drop into levels that you're expected when it says real sudden movement or one favor just digging into it. That's the type of
297 -|272 |00:54:07,410 ~-~-> 00:54:16,020 |trades I teach my students to look for. I look for that as a signature in the marketplace versus this simply well the markets are moving today the markets are
298 -|273 |00:54:16,020 ~-~-> 00:54:28,590 |trading so therefore let me just go out here and try to make money. That to me is not enough. My eyes watching how we traded that low. I want to see it traded
299 -|274 |00:54:28,590 ~-~-> 00:54:31,710 |that low and expand quickly to get these cell stops.
70 +|1 |00:02:33 ~-~-> 00:02:38 |ICT: Good morning folks, good morning guys. Give me a heads up on Twitter, if
71 +|2 |00:02:39 ~-~-> 00:02:43 |the all like the audio and volume is okay, and if you could
72 +|3 |00:02:46 ~-~-> 00:02:47 |see the ES chart.
73 +|4 |00:02:59 ~-~-> 00:03:09 |Thank you, Leon. The volume good, not that I can do anything better than I'm
74 +|5 |00:03:09 ~-~-> 00:03:15 |doing now. My microphones volume is all the way up. I'm literally within kissing
75 +|6 |00:03:15 ~-~-> 00:03:24 |distance. So that's where we're at with this. Okay, I'm Bear with me one second.
76 +|7 |00:03:24 ~-~-> 00:03:25 |Okay.
77 +|8 |00:03:36 ~-~-> 00:03:43 |All right, so today, we embark on a topic that many of you have been
78 +|9 |00:03:44 ~-~-> 00:03:51 |chomping at the bit to get to, which is pushing the button. So obviously,
79 +|10 |00:03:51 ~-~-> 00:03:57 |tomorrow we have FOMC. So that creates the likelihood of a rather slow trading
80 +|11 |00:03:57 ~-~-> 00:04:02 |session. A lot of folks just waiting to see what the Fed will be doing tomorrow.
81 +|12 |00:04:02 ~-~-> 00:04:07 |Everyone's making their bets as to what to expect, what not to expect. I don't
82 +|13 |00:04:07 ~-~-> 00:04:11 |know. Okay, so I'm not I don't ever try to go in to the market and try to
83 +|14 |00:04:11 ~-~-> 00:04:19 |forecast the actions of the Fed. So I think anyone that tries to do that is
84 +|15 |00:04:19 ~-~-> 00:04:28 |just fooling themselves, or at least attempting to fool themselves. So while
85 +|16 |00:04:28 ~-~-> 00:04:32 |we're waiting for the morning sessions opening range to complete, which is
86 +|17 |00:04:32 ~-~-> 00:04:40 |typically 930 to 10 o'clock, we keep a relaxed view on the marketplace. I'm not
87 +|18 |00:04:40 ~-~-> 00:04:43 |trying to go in with any kind of hard line bias, yet. I want to let want to
88 +|19 |00:04:43 ~-~-> 00:04:49 |let the market itself tell me what to look for, and all we're looking for this
89 +|20 |00:04:49 ~-~-> 00:04:54 |morning is a small little opportunity to get what I teach as a low threshold
90 +|21 |00:04:54 ~-~-> 00:05:00 |objective, which is five handles in the ES. So while obviously. Later in the
91 +|22 |00:05:00 ~-~-> 00:05:05 |year, you'll see me do larger polls where we're doing 2030, 4050, handle
92 +|23 |00:05:05 ~-~-> 00:05:10 |runs. There will be days for that. Today's not one of them. So I kind of
93 +|24 |00:05:10 ~-~-> 00:05:15 |like want to beat on the drum of how I teach all of my students to start with,
94 +|25 |00:05:15 ~-~-> 00:05:20 |which is a really low hanging fruit objective. I believe that anyone that
95 +|26 |00:05:20 ~-~-> 00:05:25 |goes into this with that mindset, in terms of studying like that, not trying
96 +|27 |00:05:25 ~-~-> 00:05:29 |to get rich overnight, not trying to get rich and at all really, just trying to
97 +|28 |00:05:29 ~-~-> 00:05:34 |carve out an opportunity that repeats over and over again, that you like, that
98 +|29 |00:05:34 ~-~-> 00:05:39 |you can find comfort and seem being patient looking for it, allowing the
99 +|30 |00:05:39 ~-~-> 00:05:46 |market to present as many advantageous signatures in our favor that would
100 +|31 |00:05:46 ~-~-> 00:05:52 |warrant a price move that is, at least by definition the way I define it, high
101 +|32 |00:05:52 ~-~-> 00:05:58 |probability. So I'm willing to submit to a longer time than I normally am this
102 +|33 |00:05:58 ~-~-> 00:06:04 |morning. Usually I do about an hour or so, and then I cut bait or whatever. I'm
103 +|34 |00:06:04 ~-~-> 00:06:09 |going to try to stay with you this morning until we get an opportunity that
104 +|35 |00:06:09 ~-~-> 00:06:13 |fits my criteria. So I'll kind of give you the nuts and bolts as to why I
105 +|36 |00:06:13 ~-~-> 00:06:20 |believe it should do what I expect it to do. I want to preface it by saying, and
106 +|37 |00:06:20 ~-~-> 00:06:24 |most of you already know this. It's been with me for a long time. This is not a
107 +|38 |00:06:24 ~-~-> 00:06:30 |signal service, okay, let me remind you what the disclaimer here as I talk
108 +|39 |00:06:40 ~-~-> 00:06:46 |that disclaimer will be popping up a few times during this presentation today. It
109 +|40 |00:06:46 ~-~-> 00:06:52 |is not an invitation for you to copy. It is not an invitation for you to try to
110 +|41 |00:06:52 ~-~-> 00:06:57 |fix your draw down. It's not an invitation for you to get your last
111 +|42 |00:06:57 ~-~-> 00:07:01 |little piece of your funded account challenge passed. Okay, I'm going to
112 +|43 |00:07:01 ~-~-> 00:07:07 |give you certain exercises today, and I'm also going to tell you where I
113 +|44 |00:07:07 ~-~-> 00:07:14 |believe it's going to go. I'm going to inspire you to use your demo. Okay, I
114 +|45 |00:07:14 ~-~-> 00:07:19 |don't. I don't want you to use your Live account. If you're trading with anything
115 +|46 |00:07:19 ~-~-> 00:07:23 |I say today, you're absolutely doing it wrong, and you're going to regret it.
116 +|47 |00:07:24 ~-~-> 00:07:31 |Okay, so what we're doing is I'm teaching my son, who is embarking on a
117 +|48 |00:07:31 ~-~-> 00:07:35 |funded account challenge, and I won't name the company here, because I don't
118 +|49 |00:07:35 ~-~-> 00:07:39 |want to represent anybody, and I'm not suggesting that they're good or bad. I'm
119 +|50 |00:07:39 ~-~-> 00:07:44 |just saying that he's making an attempt to do. So that's where he wants to go
120 +|51 |00:07:44 ~-~-> 00:07:48 |with it. He doesn't want me to give him money to do it, which is great. But his
121 +|52 |00:07:48 ~-~-> 00:07:53 |concern, as a new student of the markets, and he is absolutely green, he
122 +|53 |00:07:53 ~-~-> 00:08:00 |doesn't know how to do much of anything. So his concern is He's fearful of
123 +|54 |00:08:00 ~-~-> 00:08:05 |getting in and that was one of the initial things I had in the 90s. When I
124 +|55 |00:08:05 ~-~-> 00:08:10 |first started trading commodities, I was fearful. I didn't know really what I was
125 +|56 |00:08:10 ~-~-> 00:08:17 |looking for. And it was manifesting itself in my anxiety about when and what
126 +|57 |00:08:17 ~-~-> 00:08:20 |market I should be trading. What time frame should I be trading, if you're new
127 +|58 |00:08:20 ~-~-> 00:08:27 |to all of this market stuff and or even ICT content, it can be a little bit
128 +|59 |00:08:27 ~-~-> 00:08:30 |bewildering, you know, like, what time frame should I use? What market should I
129 +|60 |00:08:30 ~-~-> 00:08:36 |trade? You know, what setup, what's the what's the thing I'm looking for? And
130 +|61 |00:08:36 ~-~-> 00:08:42 |the reason why I teach the way I do is I present lots of different approaches to
131 +|62 |00:08:42 ~-~-> 00:08:47 |skinning that cap, but it allows you to bring in your own personality. Now
132 +|63 |00:08:47 ~-~-> 00:08:54 |today, unfortunately, I'm going to try to force one particular approach to
133 +|64 |00:08:55 ~-~-> 00:08:59 |getting in, and I'm going to try to utilize a fair value gap, which is
134 +|65 |00:09:00 ~-~-> 00:09:10 |predominantly the most visually easy thing to find in a price chart. Much
135 +|66 |00:09:10 ~-~-> 00:09:14 |like looking at equal lows that we target for sell side liquidity, that's
136 +|67 |00:09:14 ~-~-> 00:09:19 |where we think that the market's likely to draw to much like we expect equal
137 +|68 |00:09:19 ~-~-> 00:09:24 |highs to be a draw for buy side liquidity. Those types of things are
138 +|69 |00:09:24 ~-~-> 00:09:29 |pretty generic. They're they're not hiding from you. In fact, it's next to
139 +|70 |00:09:29 ~-~-> 00:09:38 |impossible to not see them, meaning all we're looking for is a clear indication
140 +|71 |00:09:38 ~-~-> 00:09:48 |that the market's likely to reach into some level of buy side or sell side, and
141 +|72 |00:09:48 ~-~-> 00:09:53 |I'm submitting to not looking at anything this morning, because I want to
142 +|73 |00:09:53 ~-~-> 00:09:59 |kind of like present the opportunity in the closest manner to someone that.
143 +|74 |00:10:00 ~-~-> 00:10:05 |Doesn't know what I'm teaching, so I'm limiting my perspective to just this
144 +|75 |00:10:05 ~-~-> 00:10:10 |five minute chart. Now, you don't want to be doing this. Obviously, the market
145 +|76 |00:10:10 ~-~-> 00:10:13 |just opened up, by the way. You don't want to do this if you're trying to
146 +|77 |00:10:13 ~-~-> 00:10:18 |trade with real funds. But try trying to pantomime as close as I can to someone
147 +|78 |00:10:18 ~-~-> 00:10:22 |that would have a limited perspective, which is someone that doesn't look at
148 +|79 |00:10:22 ~-~-> 00:10:26 |higher Time Frame charts, someone that doesn't look at much of anything except
149 +|80 |00:10:26 ~-~-> 00:10:30 |for the chart they're looking at at the time and usually it's a one minute chart
150 +|81 |00:10:30 ~-~-> 00:10:33 |or five minute chart, because me and other people on the internet have
151 +|82 |00:10:33 ~-~-> 00:10:38 |showcased opportunities that we're presenting on those time frames. So
152 +|83 |00:10:38 ~-~-> 00:10:42 |therefore the audience members will gravitate to those time frames, thinking
153 +|84 |00:10:42 ~-~-> 00:10:45 |that that's the only way to do it when it's not, it's just, it's a good
154 +|85 |00:10:45 ~-~-> 00:10:49 |teaching medium for me because it gives lots of opportunity, plus it gives no
155 +|86 |00:10:49 ~-~-> 00:10:57 |room for any delay, like it's right there on the on the fly. And this five
156 +|87 |00:10:57 ~-~-> 00:11:03 |minute chart may not be the time frame I'm going to use on I pulled that up to
157 +|88 |00:11:03 ~-~-> 00:11:10 |show the Monday closing regular session price, which is that 3984 so just
158 +|89 |00:11:10 ~-~-> 00:11:15 |sticking to this time frame here, we're opening up with a premium, premium, in
159 +|90 |00:11:15 ~-~-> 00:11:19 |the sense that we are opening up with a gap from yesterday's close. So we've
160 +|91 |00:11:19 ~-~-> 00:11:26 |worked higher overnight. And if you go to your regular trading hours tab, you
161 +|92 |00:11:26 ~-~-> 00:11:32 |click on that, there's the gap we're looking at here. Okay, so it's a very
162 +|93 |00:11:32 ~-~-> 00:11:36 |significant gap. Whenever it's like that, I like to see a little bit of a
163 +|94 |00:11:36 ~-~-> 00:11:41 |move to the upside, to draw in the public, make them want to chase it, and
164 +|95 |00:11:41 ~-~-> 00:11:45 |then typically, what it'll generally do, not all the time, but generally it'll
165 +|96 |00:11:45 ~-~-> 00:11:47 |want to move back down inside of that range. And what range Am I really,
166 +|97 |00:11:47 ~-~-> 00:11:55 |really speaking about? Let's outline that now. So using the regular session
167 +|98 |00:11:55 ~-~-> 00:12:06 |close price here, up to the opening price I'm this morning. So that gap,
168 +|99 |00:12:07 ~-~-> 00:12:16 |which is significant going into this morning, I want you to focus on the
169 +|100 |00:12:16 ~-~-> 00:12:21 |potential for just trading back into that range that's shaded here. We're not
170 +|101 |00:12:21 ~-~-> 00:12:25 |trying to make the case that it's going to trade all the way back down to 3984
171 +|102 |00:12:26 ~-~-> 00:12:31 |50. That's not an argument. I'm trying to pose to you. What I'm suggesting is,
172 +|103 |00:12:31 ~-~-> 00:12:37 |can we see a five handle price run from wherever we trade up to? And I'm not
173 +|104 |00:12:37 ~-~-> 00:12:42 |trying to pick the top I'm going to let the market indicate that it's stopped,
174 +|105 |00:12:42 ~-~-> 00:12:47 |at least for the short term, going higher. I'm not trying to go long. I'm
175 +|106 |00:12:47 ~-~-> 00:12:53 |going to try to look for something that gets into that range here. So I'm giving
176 +|107 |00:12:53 ~-~-> 00:12:58 |you a directional bias that I'm looking to operate in doesn't mean that it can't
177 +|108 |00:12:58 ~-~-> 00:13:02 |go higher. Doesn't mean it can't go down to the previous session, closing price.
178 +|109 |00:13:03 ~-~-> 00:13:08 |We're not trying to forecast that. Remember, the argument here is, how does
179 +|110 |00:13:09 ~-~-> 00:13:15 |one conquer fear of getting in? How do you conquer that? And you probably had
180 +|111 |00:13:15 ~-~-> 00:13:20 |anxiety, especially if you got lucky enough to get a funded account where
181 +|112 |00:13:20 ~-~-> 00:13:24 |you've passed the challenge, and now they give you the funded account, and
182 +|113 |00:13:24 ~-~-> 00:13:29 |then suddenly you're met with this new anxiety, this new let me go back to the
183 +|114 |00:13:29 ~-~-> 00:13:35 |electronic session. Now. Just be mindful that this shaded area here, that's our
184 +|115 |00:13:36 ~-~-> 00:13:41 |opening range gap, so where we closed yesterday or previous day to where we
185 +|116 |00:13:41 ~-~-> 00:13:45 |open. That's what's being highlighted there. Okay, so when I drop down into
186 +|117 |00:13:45 ~-~-> 00:13:49 |the electronic trading hours, that shaded area is what we're representing
187 +|118 |00:13:49 ~-~-> 00:14:00 |there. Okay, so when I first started in 1992 I was admittedly in a rush to get
188 +|119 |00:14:00 ~-~-> 00:14:05 |the account opened up. But then, once the account was was opened, I was frozen
189 +|120 |00:14:05 ~-~-> 00:14:10 |with fear, and everything I was looking at on the chart seemed like it was
190 +|121 |00:14:10 ~-~-> 00:14:14 |Greek, whereas I thought before I knew what I was looking for, when I really
191 +|122 |00:14:14 ~-~-> 00:14:22 |didn't, but I was fearful and paranoid about doing anything, because I was
192 +|123 |00:14:22 ~-~-> 00:14:27 |afraid of that first trade being what wrong. I was afraid of taking the loss.
193 +|124 |00:14:27 ~-~-> 00:14:32 |I was afraid of doing it incorrectly, and no one knew what I was doing. They
194 +|125 |00:14:32 ~-~-> 00:14:36 |didn't know I had money in the account. They didn't know me as a trader. I
195 +|126 |00:14:36 ~-~-> 00:14:39 |wasn't online. I wasn't inner circle trader, yet, I was the guy that just
196 +|127 |00:14:39 ~-~-> 00:14:45 |opened up a trading account with Fox investments paying $100 per round, turn
197 +|128 |00:14:46 ~-~-> 00:14:52 |per contract. Yes, it was robbery, but that's what we were told. That was the
198 +|129 |00:14:52 ~-~-> 00:14:55 |normal back then. So a discount broker was like Lynn wall dock, where you paid
199 +|130 |00:14:55 ~-~-> 00:15:04 |30 some dollars per contract. So I was fearful my. Much, much in the vein that
200 +|131 |00:15:04 ~-~-> 00:15:08 |most of you would have doing it wrong. But I was also afraid of because I only
201 +|132 |00:15:08 ~-~-> 00:15:13 |had $2,500 in the account, which was extremely under capitalized, like I
202 +|133 |00:15:13 ~-~-> 00:15:20 |didn't have enough money. So what I was thinking was, not only do I have to be
203 +|134 |00:15:20 ~-~-> 00:15:25 |right about my trade, but also have to be right about my entry, not going into
204 +|135 |00:15:25 ~-~-> 00:15:29 |too much drawdown, because soon as I put the trade on, they're going to do what,
205 +|136 |00:15:29 ~-~-> 00:15:32 |they're going to take that commission right out of that. So I got to cover
206 +|137 |00:15:32 ~-~-> 00:15:36 |$100 right away. So if I'm trading the grain market like soybeans, I have to
207 +|138 |00:15:36 ~-~-> 00:15:41 |have at least two cents of a move, because each penny move is 50 Cent, I'm
208 +|139 |00:15:41 ~-~-> 00:15:47 |sorry, $50 much like a yes, mini contract. So I was already overthinking
209 +|140 |00:15:47 ~-~-> 00:15:53 |everything, and that anxiety caused me to be much like a deer in headlights.
210 +|141 |00:15:54 ~-~-> 00:16:00 |And let me also talk about, you know, real quick, this. This is about teaching
211 +|142 |00:16:00 ~-~-> 00:16:04 |you how to overcome fear. It's not about teaching you to follow me and uses as
212 +|143 |00:16:04 ~-~-> 00:16:09 |signals. Because I know some of you are here just for that very reason, if
213 +|144 |00:16:09 ~-~-> 00:16:12 |you're not listening to what I'm teaching, it's not going to be
214 +|145 |00:16:12 ~-~-> 00:16:15 |beneficial to you. I could get out here and push the button to meet right all
215 +|146 |00:16:15 ~-~-> 00:16:19 |day long, but it's not making you better. It's not teaching you how to do
216 +|147 |00:16:19 ~-~-> 00:16:22 |it on your own, which is really what I'm trying to do here. It's only reason why
217 +|148 |00:16:22 ~-~-> 00:16:27 |I'm even doing live streams is to show you how to do it. And my son, who's
218 +|149 |00:16:27 ~-~-> 00:16:31 |hopefully going to learn from this and he wasn't privy to all this stuff that
219 +|150 |00:16:31 ~-~-> 00:16:35 |I'm talking about now, because he wasn't interested in trading these typical
220 +|151 |00:16:35 ~-~-> 00:16:41 |teenage kid video games and high school antics that kids do. But
221 +|152 |00:16:44 ~-~-> 00:16:48 |my concern, much like all of yours, if you've ever experienced fear, and some
222 +|153 |00:16:48 ~-~-> 00:16:52 |of you probably are fearful doing it wrong, even in a demo account, I've had
223 +|154 |00:16:52 ~-~-> 00:16:57 |many people reach out to me that they have ruined several demo accounts not
224 +|155 |00:16:57 ~-~-> 00:17:00 |knowing what they're doing, and it is so frustrated they can't even get to the
225 +|156 |00:17:00 ~-~-> 00:17:06 |point where you can push a button there, which is extreme anxiety, but you're
226 +|157 |00:17:06 ~-~-> 00:17:11 |placing too much emphasis on the outcome being perfect for you in the beginning,
227 +|158 |00:17:12 ~-~-> 00:17:17 |as I'll show you today, you want to exercise and do drills, and I'm going to
228 +|159 |00:17:17 ~-~-> 00:17:22 |teach you how to cope with the initial fear of getting into a market move and
229 +|160 |00:17:22 ~-~-> 00:17:27 |not worrying about that outcome being profitable. Now, before I close the
230 +|161 |00:17:27 ~-~-> 00:17:30 |session, obviously, my goal is to find something that moves five handles that's
231 +|162 |00:17:30 ~-~-> 00:17:33 |that's obviously the intention today. But I'm also going to present
232 +|163 |00:17:33 ~-~-> 00:17:36 |opportunities where I want you to think about what you're being shown in the
233 +|164 |00:17:37 ~-~-> 00:17:41 |chart. I'm going to point to something and ask you to conceptualize what it is
234 +|165 |00:17:41 ~-~-> 00:17:46 |I'm pointing at, and does it make sense to utilize that as an entry versus the
235 +|166 |00:17:46 ~-~-> 00:17:52 |ones that you'll actually see me push the button on? Now it's a it's a skill
236 +|167 |00:17:52 ~-~-> 00:17:57 |set that you'll obviously learn over time, but you can't just expect with a
237 +|168 |00:17:57 ~-~-> 00:18:01 |live account, whether it be a funded account or your actual funds in a
238 +|169 |00:18:01 ~-~-> 00:18:05 |traditional broker. You can't expect those types of conditions just to
239 +|170 |00:18:05 ~-~-> 00:18:08 |materialize magic and all of a sudden, now you know how to trade because you're
240 +|171 |00:18:08 ~-~-> 00:18:13 |using real money now, which is the reason why I'm an opponent to anyone
241 +|172 |00:18:13 ~-~-> 00:18:17 |teaching that people should just learn how to trade with real money. You don't
242 +|173 |00:18:17 ~-~-> 00:18:22 |learn how to trade with real money. You learn how to engage risk where you
243 +|174 |00:18:22 ~-~-> 00:18:27 |didn't have that before in paper trading and demo trading, but you learned how to
244 +|175 |00:18:27 ~-~-> 00:18:31 |trade with a demo. That's what a demo does. The demo is not just to
245 +|176 |00:18:31 ~-~-> 00:18:35 |familiarize yourself with a platform or broker. It's absolutely to teach you how
246 +|177 |00:18:35 ~-~-> 00:18:39 |to trade. And anyone that says otherwise, is this a fool? And this is
247 +|178 |00:18:39 ~-~-> 00:18:45 |the bottom line. So we're looking at a market that has a little bit of a mixed
248 +|179 |00:18:45 ~-~-> 00:18:49 |bag this morning, much like we had yesterday. I was calling most of
249 +|180 |00:18:49 ~-~-> 00:18:53 |everything you saw yesterday, and yes, on my Twitter feed, so you can go back
250 +|181 |00:18:53 ~-~-> 00:18:59 |and take a look at that. But today we have the dollar index. It's come off of
251 +|182 |00:18:59 ~-~-> 00:19:06 |its lows from 930 back into the range that was formed from 915 to 930 I'd like
252 +|183 |00:19:06 ~-~-> 00:19:11 |to see it mount a run above. You're welcome to check your charts. I don't
253 +|184 |00:19:11 ~-~-> 00:19:18 |want to toggle too much and make the mistake of losing audio the high of 103,
254 +|185 |00:19:18 ~-~-> 00:19:25 |13. I want to see it trade above that. That would indicate there's likeliness
255 +|186 |00:19:26 ~-~-> 00:19:33 |to see the shaded area on es be revisited. And again, we're just looking
256 +|187 |00:19:33 ~-~-> 00:19:40 |for an opportunity to frame a five handle run, which is not a lot. And
257 +|188 |00:19:41 ~-~-> 00:19:45 |right away you should be thinking, How much could I be risking with that? Well,
258 +|189 |00:19:45 ~-~-> 00:19:50 |when you first encounter doing entry drills, where you're practicing with
259 +|190 |00:19:50 ~-~-> 00:19:54 |your demo account or your paper trading account, which is how you do this,
260 +|191 |00:19:55 ~-~-> 00:19:58 |you're using one contract. Now, I know some of you out there that are trying to
261 +|192 |00:19:58 ~-~-> 00:20:02 |make a name for yourself. Rolling and making up a bunch of nonsense. You're
262 +|193 |00:20:02 ~-~-> 00:20:06 |going to get out there, and you're going to say, but I trade 40 contracts and 30
263 +|194 |00:20:06 ~-~-> 00:20:09 |contracts and blow my account out in front of everybody on live streams and
264 +|195 |00:20:09 ~-~-> 00:20:13 |pretend it doesn't happen. What we're doing is trying to teach you how to
265 +|196 |00:20:13 ~-~-> 00:20:19 |overcome the fear that fear, that anxiety, is rooted in number one, the
266 +|197 |00:20:19 ~-~-> 00:20:29 |leverage. Right away. The easiest thing to do to remove fear or to squash it any
267 +|198 |00:20:29 ~-~-> 00:20:35 |anxiety, is to remove the leverage. Dial that back just because your funded
268 +|199 |00:20:35 ~-~-> 00:20:39 |account says you can trade with 15 contracts. That's not an invitation for
269 +|200 |00:20:39 ~-~-> 00:20:44 |you, as my student that think that that's appropriate, that's a that's a
270 +|201 |00:20:44 ~-~-> 00:20:48 |lot of risk for someone that's just now getting a funded account. I mean,
271 +|202 |00:20:48 ~-~-> 00:20:51 |you're, you're you're new. You don't have the experience. You have no idea
272 +|203 |00:20:51 ~-~-> 00:20:56 |what it feels like to watch an account balance fluctuate with that measure of
273 +|204 |00:20:58 ~-~-> 00:21:05 |capital on each point fluctuation you so you want to start with one contract, and
274 +|205 |00:21:05 ~-~-> 00:21:08 |you want to desensitize yourself, because that same five PIP handle or
275 +|206 |00:21:08 ~-~-> 00:21:16 |summary, that five point run in ES, you can do the math and over time, when you
276 +|207 |00:21:16 ~-~-> 00:21:20 |can graduate to two contracts, three contracts, Four contracts, or even opt
277 +|208 |00:21:20 ~-~-> 00:21:28 |into that 15 contracts per trade, you'll have the experience working with price
278 +|209 |00:21:28 ~-~-> 00:21:35 |action that's associated with real monetary loss and potential gain. You
279 +|210 |00:21:35 ~-~-> 00:21:40 |just can't simply go out there and say, Well, I'm ready for it now. I'm gonna
280 +|211 |00:21:40 ~-~-> 00:21:43 |I'm gonna I'm gonna go out there and just plunge into the whatever the amount
281 +|212 |00:21:43 ~-~-> 00:21:48 |of contracts they allow me. I'm gonna do that. When I was teaching predominantly
282 +|213 |00:21:48 ~-~-> 00:21:54 |the forex markets, I mentioned it many times. Just because you can leverage as
283 +|214 |00:21:54 ~-~-> 00:21:58 |much as you can leverage with the broker, you should not be doing that,
284 +|215 |00:21:58 ~-~-> 00:22:02 |because all you're doing is increasing the likelihood that you're going to
285 +|216 |00:22:02 ~-~-> 00:22:05 |blow, you're going to lose, and you're going to be fearful the entire time
286 +|217 |00:22:05 ~-~-> 00:22:09 |you're in the marketplace. So you want this to be very boring. You don't have
287 +|218 |00:22:09 ~-~-> 00:22:14 |any kind of emotion attached to it, any kind of excitement, no kind of fanfare,
288 +|219 |00:22:14 ~-~-> 00:22:20 |because if you remove all that, your attention is going to be on price
289 +|220 |00:22:20 ~-~-> 00:22:25 |action, not how much you can make, or worrying about how much you're going to
290 +|221 |00:22:25 ~-~-> 00:22:31 |lose. And that's unfortunately, the the case with most new traders is that they
291 +|222 |00:22:32 ~-~-> 00:22:36 |they want to gamble much like the lottery and how much they can put on the
292 +|223 |00:22:36 ~-~-> 00:22:41 |bet, and just hope it works out in their favor, not realizing that if they just
293 +|224 |00:22:41 ~-~-> 00:22:46 |did very little risk, they can take lots of trades and still stay in the game
294 +|225 |00:22:46 ~-~-> 00:22:51 |long enough to get the eventual outcome that they're looking for. If it's not,
295 +|226 |00:22:51 ~-~-> 00:22:54 |get rich over quick. I'm sorry, get rich overnight, real quick, because that's
296 +|227 |00:22:54 ~-~-> 00:23:03 |not what you should be doing here. So far, we're just marking time on. Es
297 +|228 |00:23:03 ~-~-> 00:23:09 |hasn't done too much of anything. I'm looking at the NASDAQ. It's not doing
298 +|229 |00:23:09 ~-~-> 00:23:12 |much at all either, but the Dow is certainly weaker.
299 +|230 |00:23:14 ~-~-> 00:23:15 |It's coming off of its
300 +|231 |00:23:16 ~-~-> 00:23:23 |run higher. It's posted this morning, early on, and I'm watching, there's a
301 +|232 |00:23:23 ~-~-> 00:23:30 |volume imbalance at one Oh 3.06 on the one minute chart of dollar. So my eyes
302 +|233 |00:23:30 ~-~-> 00:23:36 |there, I want to see it. Kind of respect that and still pressing to 103 13, that
303 +|234 |00:23:36 ~-~-> 00:23:41 |rallying higher on dollar would be risk off near term, meaning that it's easier
304 +|235 |00:23:41 ~-~-> 00:23:47 |for foreign currencies like British Pound versus US dollar, Dow, NASDAQ and
305 +|236 |00:23:47 ~-~-> 00:23:52 |ES to trade softer, go lower. It doesn't mean I'm picking the top it's not an
306 +|237 |00:23:52 ~-~-> 00:23:57 |indication that it's going to crash. All I'm saying is it puts things in motion
307 +|238 |00:23:57 ~-~-> 00:24:03 |that would be likely supportive of of weaker, lower prices, we already gapped
308 +|239 |00:24:03 ~-~-> 00:24:10 |higher. It's already had that initial move higher. There's this consolidation.
309 +|240 |00:24:10 ~-~-> 00:24:15 |They broke out. Traders that use this type of idea to to buy want to break
310 +|241 |00:24:15 ~-~-> 00:24:18 |out. They're already in this here. So
311 +|242 |00:24:25 ~-~-> 00:24:29 |drop down into a one minute chart. Now, actually, let's just go through four
312 +|243 |00:24:29 ~-~-> 00:24:29 |we're
313 +|244 |00:24:46 ~-~-> 00:24:50 |so the exercise I'm teaching you today, when we get into a setting where there's
314 +|245 |00:24:50 ~-~-> 00:24:54 |opportunity there, because there's nothing here, yet, remember the first 30
315 +|246 |00:24:54 ~-~-> 00:24:58 |minutes as a trader, trading with ES, you want to be willing to submit to the
316 +|247 |00:24:58 ~-~-> 00:25:02 |first 30 minutes? It doesn't. Mean that you can't find a setup. If it's there,
317 +|248 |00:25:02 ~-~-> 00:25:09 |if it's obvious, then obviously, then you can. But as a rule of thumb, general
318 +|249 |00:25:09 ~-~-> 00:25:13 |rule of thumb, you want to submit to those first 30 minutes, because
319 +|250 |00:25:13 ~-~-> 00:25:18 |sometimes there's reports that come out at 945 Not today, not every day, but
320 +|251 |00:25:18 ~-~-> 00:25:25 |sometimes that occurs also the initial move right off the opening generally, is
321 +|252 |00:25:25 ~-~-> 00:25:31 |not the right one to be placing yourself in front of risk. So, meaning it could
322 +|253 |00:25:31 ~-~-> 00:25:34 |be a Judah swing, a fake a fake move. Okay, so we want to allow the
323 +|254 |00:25:34 ~-~-> 00:25:39 |marketplace to to draw in the gamblers they want to trade in near the first
324 +|255 |00:25:39 ~-~-> 00:25:44 |couple minutes of trading, okay? And you want to just relax, slow down and remind
325 +|256 |00:25:44 ~-~-> 00:25:49 |yourself that you have plenty of time, plenty of time you have the entire day
326 +|257 |00:25:49 ~-~-> 00:25:53 |to find these measly little five handles. And you don't want to rush just
327 +|258 |00:25:53 ~-~-> 00:25:56 |simply to get it out of the way, because that's also another thing that you
328 +|259 |00:25:56 ~-~-> 00:26:01 |you're going to feel like, you know you want to trade. You know you're also
329 +|260 |00:26:01 ~-~-> 00:26:06 |initially anxious about doing it incorrectly. So one of the things you're
330 +|261 |00:26:06 ~-~-> 00:26:11 |going to feel is, all right, I'm in front of the charts. I have my account,
331 +|262 |00:26:11 ~-~-> 00:26:16 |it's funded, or it's real, and I got to just get in here and get it out of the
332 +|263 |00:26:16 ~-~-> 00:26:20 |way so that way I can make my money and close the charts and just just be away
333 +|264 |00:26:20 ~-~-> 00:26:25 |from it. What you're doing is you're conditioning yourself to hate trading. I
334 +|265 |00:26:25 ~-~-> 00:26:29 |went through a phase like that after a few accounts that I've bloomed in the
335 +|266 |00:26:29 ~-~-> 00:26:35 |90s. That feeling of I just want to get in there and get my money and run away.
336 +|267 |00:26:35 ~-~-> 00:26:40 |I was conditioning myself to be afraid of it, which is what made it almost
337 +|268 |00:26:40 ~-~-> 00:26:46 |impossible for me to grind through to a point of not being fearful. That's why I
338 +|269 |00:26:46 ~-~-> 00:26:52 |have so many execution models that lets me get into a trade. I have lots of
339 +|270 |00:26:52 ~-~-> 00:26:57 |opportunities to get into a trade that allows me to participate in a move. And
340 +|271 |00:26:57 ~-~-> 00:27:02 |the reason why I have so many weapons like that is because that was my of my
341 +|272 |00:27:02 ~-~-> 00:27:08 |strongest barriers. I was afraid to enter because I didn't trust the model
342 +|273 |00:27:08 ~-~-> 00:27:14 |that I was working with was a good one. I didn't have enough experience seeing
343 +|274 |00:27:14 ~-~-> 00:27:18 |it work. I was in a hurry, just because I saw a few of them work, and sometimes
344 +|275 |00:27:18 ~-~-> 00:27:21 |they didn't work, but I blocked that part out, and that's another thing you
345 +|276 |00:27:21 ~-~-> 00:27:26 |need to be aware of when you do these exercises and these drills. Don't block
346 +|277 |00:27:26 ~-~-> 00:27:32 |out the times you do it wrong. Don't do that. You want to make sure that you
347 +|278 |00:27:32 ~-~-> 00:27:36 |learn what you did incorrectly in those and don't try to put blinders on
348 +|279 |00:27:36 ~-~-> 00:27:40 |thinking, Okay, well, that didn't happen. No, you need to know what you're
349 +|280 |00:27:40 ~-~-> 00:27:43 |doing, because if you don't address the issues that you're doing incorrectly,
350 +|281 |00:27:43 ~-~-> 00:27:46 |they're going to repeat. And if you're doing it live funds, you know what's
351 +|282 |00:27:46 ~-~-> 00:27:50 |going to happen. Eventually it's going to wear down that equity or wear down
352 +|283 |00:27:50 ~-~-> 00:27:55 |your mental capital, and between both of them, you will blow your account. So
353 +|284 |00:27:55 ~-~-> 00:27:59 |preservation of capital is the first and foremost important role in speculation,
354 +|285 |00:27:59 ~-~-> 00:28:02 |whether you're doing it with paper trading demo or eventually in live
355 +|286 |00:28:02 ~-~-> 00:28:09 |funds. So right away again, we're submitting that first 30 minutes.
356 +|287 |00:28:15 ~-~-> 00:28:20 |Nothing's happened so far today, dollars firming up. It still hasn't get up.
357 +|288 |00:28:20 ~-~-> 00:28:25 |Gotten above that 103, 13 level, which is what I'm looking for. I want to see
358 +|289 |00:28:25 ~-~-> 00:28:30 |it get above that on dollar one, zero, 3.13 that's the level I referred to
359 +|290 |00:28:30 ~-~-> 00:28:36 |earlier. Here's some weakness. We're looking for that right there. Okay, now,
360 +|291 |00:28:37 ~-~-> 00:28:43 |right away, your eye should jump to these clean lows right there. You
361 +|292 |00:28:43 ~-~-> 00:28:50 |see that. See that right here. Now, what's resting below those lows?
362 +|293 |00:28:51 ~-~-> 00:28:56 |Sell side liquidity this low here. We had a displacement below it. We're
363 +|294 |00:28:56 ~-~-> 00:29:08 |trading back up into the imbalance here. And the risk would have to be wrong on
364 +|295 |00:29:08 ~-~-> 00:29:08 |that chart.
365 +|296 |00:29:15 ~-~-> 00:29:16 |4022,
366 +|297 |00:29:23 ~-~-> 00:29:24 |40, 25.75,
367 +|298 |00:29:29 ~-~-> 00:29:36 |okay, so do we offer an opportunity to see five handles in this area here to
368 +|299 |00:29:36 ~-~-> 00:29:38 |that level here? Yes.
369 +|300 |00:29:38 ~-~-> 00:29:44 |Yes, that's not bright
370 +|301 |00:29:59 ~-~-> 00:29:59 |enough i.
371 +|302 |00:30:19 ~-~-> 00:30:25 |So now what I'm doing is as I'm watching the ES here, I want to see it drop
372 +|303 |00:30:25 ~-~-> 00:30:31 |below, just to trade back inside this shaded area and also gravitate towards
373 +|304 |00:30:31 ~-~-> 00:30:35 |the sell side liquidity. And I'm watching the dollar index, there's a
374 +|305 |00:30:35 ~-~-> 00:30:38 |small little imbalance that it's trading on. Let me tell you the candle right
375 +|306 |00:30:38 ~-~-> 00:30:38 |now.
376 +|307 |00:30:38 ~-~-> 00:30:42 |If you look at the one minute chart, it is the 944,
377 +|308 |00:30:44 ~-~-> 00:30:49 |big green candle on the one minute chart I'm watching. Does it respect that? In
378 +|309 |00:30:49 ~-~-> 00:30:53 |other words, does it want to send dollar higher while I'm watching ES? I
379 +|310 |00:32:11 ~-~-> 00:32:15 |what we were doing is the initial drill is five for five. That means you're
380 +|311 |00:32:15 ~-~-> 00:32:19 |going to risk five handles to make five handles. I already know there's going to
381 +|312 |00:32:19 ~-~-> 00:32:22 |be individuals in here thinking, Oh, that doesn't make money. It makes money,
382 +|313 |00:32:23 ~-~-> 00:32:33 |but you don't need a high rate of multiples for you don't need a five to
383 +|314 |00:32:33 ~-~-> 00:32:37 |one or 10 to 121, are multiple to be profitable. If you have a strike rate
384 +|315 |00:32:37 ~-~-> 00:32:43 |that's pretty high, you can do one for one, but while you're training yourself,
385 +|316 |00:32:44 ~-~-> 00:32:47 |you don't need that, you can just do one for one, because you're conditioning
386 +|317 |00:32:47 ~-~-> 00:32:51 |yourself to get over that fear of missing or not missing the trading
387 +|318 |00:32:51 ~-~-> 00:32:55 |because you're afraid you're gonna miss a move or you're gonna take a loss,
388 +|319 |00:33:01 ~-~-> 00:33:11 |still watching that dollar. This in here is not as clean as I would like to have
389 +|320 |00:33:11 ~-~-> 00:33:14 |seen it. I would have rather had not seen that little move here. But I'm
390 +|321 |00:33:14 ~-~-> 00:33:20 |giving it an opportunity to see if I can see that run up on dollar on that small,
391 +|322 |00:33:20 ~-~-> 00:33:27 |little buy side, balance, sell sign, efficiency. And again, we're still in
392 +|323 |00:33:27 ~-~-> 00:33:31 |first in that first 30 minutes of trading. So this is all part of that.
393 +|324 |00:33:31 ~-~-> 00:33:35 |What are you looking for? ICT, what are you waiting for? What do you look to
394 +|325 |00:33:35 ~-~-> 00:33:39 |see? What do you want to find in price action? What is your focus? What don't
395 +|326 |00:33:39 ~-~-> 00:33:43 |you like? That's what I'm doing right here. This is how you mentor someone.
396 +|327 |00:33:43 ~-~-> 00:33:46 |It's just not blindly going in there and just taking a trade. Now, let's just
397 +|328 |00:33:46 ~-~-> 00:33:50 |say, for instance, let's play double advocate for a moment. Say it just
398 +|329 |00:33:50 ~-~-> 00:33:54 |starts to break lower, okay. Say it breaks lower. And I haven't gotten in
399 +|330 |00:33:54 ~-~-> 00:34:03 |yet. I can use the top of that shaded area and the midpoint of this wick here,
400 +|331 |00:34:03 ~-~-> 00:34:06 |which will be consequent encroachment. In other words, if it traded down here,
401 +|332 |00:34:06 ~-~-> 00:34:10 |but didn't trade below here yet, and trade back up into it, I don't have a
402 +|333 |00:34:10 ~-~-> 00:34:15 |problem with that taken as an entry. Now, you might not be comfortable with
403 +|334 |00:34:15 ~-~-> 00:34:18 |something like that. I'm not trying to convince you that that's the model for
404 +|335 |00:34:18 ~-~-> 00:34:22 |you. All. I'm saying is, how do you overcome fear of entry. That's the whole
405 +|336 |00:34:22 ~-~-> 00:34:29 |topic of the day. But I'm wanting to trade with an entry with a fair value
406 +|337 |00:34:29 ~-~-> 00:34:35 |gap. That's what I'm trying to force my focus on. That way, at some point it's
407 +|338 |00:34:35 ~-~-> 00:34:39 |going to give it to me. I just have to wait long enough for it to happen. It's
408 +|339 |00:34:39 ~-~-> 00:34:44 |going to happen every day there's one, but you don't have the patience, if
409 +|340 |00:34:44 ~-~-> 00:34:51 |you're new, to wait for it, and since we have nothing in here, did I go short?
410 +|341 |00:34:52 ~-~-> 00:34:56 |No. Why? Because there's no fair value. Guy, I wanted to see a small little
411 +|342 |00:34:56 ~-~-> 00:35:01 |portion of that down closed candle left open. Do? Then a new candle start, and
412 +|343 |00:35:01 ~-~-> 00:35:04 |then it trade up into that. Then I would have, I would have sold short rate
413 +|344 |00:35:04 ~-~-> 00:35:08 |there, targeting these lows. But if I don't have what I'm looking for in a
414 +|345 |00:35:08 ~-~-> 00:35:12 |chart, I'm not just going to think, well, you know, I got video games to
415 +|346 |00:35:12 ~-~-> 00:35:16 |play. I got to do something here, or my wife's going to be asking me to do
416 +|347 |00:35:16 ~-~-> 00:35:20 |something, and I won't be be in front of my charts. Not that she does that. But
417 +|348 |00:35:20 ~-~-> 00:35:24 |you know how it is in real world you get pulled away from doing this, and they're
418 +|349 |00:35:24 ~-~-> 00:35:26 |wonderful little distractions.
419 +|350 |00:35:27 ~-~-> 00:35:31 |So Dollar Index did not respect that fair value gap, which is what I was
420 +|351 |00:35:31 ~-~-> 00:35:34 |watching for. It went a little bit deeper than I wanted to see. But it does
421 +|352 |00:35:34 ~-~-> 00:35:39 |have a wick. If you look at the wick on the candle one minute chart for D, x, y,
422 +|353 |00:35:40 ~-~-> 00:35:47 |the 943, low that wick on the low end of the candle. We've just dropped down into
423 +|354 |00:35:47 ~-~-> 00:35:50 |that. So I'm trying to watch and see if we get some kind of respect there and go
424 +|355 |00:35:50 ~-~-> 00:35:56 |higher. But I don't like where we are with ES, so we might need to go one more
425 +|356 |00:35:56 ~-~-> 00:36:03 |time higher on ES. NASDAQ looks like it wants a flirt with a higher high also,
426 +|357 |00:36:03 ~-~-> 00:36:08 |so, but the Dow is just a dog right now. We pull up Dow real quick, since there's
427 +|358 |00:36:08 ~-~-> 00:36:14 |nothing here at the time for ES, my focus is primarily on that market. So
428 +|359 |00:36:14 ~-~-> 00:36:20 |that's the difference between the Dow on the one minute chart, lower, sloppier,
429 +|360 |00:36:21 ~-~-> 00:36:29 |and then on NASDAQ, we have that. So we have relative equal highs. It looks like
430 +|361 |00:36:29 ~-~-> 00:36:41 |we could run up in there and hit that. And yes, we have this. So we have
431 +|362 |00:36:41 ~-~-> 00:36:47 |relative equal highs here, small little gap here. So if we trade it down there
432 +|363 |00:36:47 ~-~-> 00:36:51 |to that to 23 to 28 that would be five handles,
433 +|364 |00:37:01 ~-~-> 00:37:05 |dollars is hanging around, still not confirming or denying anything.
434 +|365 |00:37:15 ~-~-> 00:37:22 |This is the part. This is the time that is excruciating for inexperienced
435 +|366 |00:37:22 ~-~-> 00:37:28 |traders, you feel like, okay, you showed up. You're here. ICT says, gonna push
436 +|367 |00:37:28 ~-~-> 00:37:31 |the button today, and you're ready. You're chomping at the bit. You can't
437 +|368 |00:37:31 ~-~-> 00:37:36 |wait. And that's exactly how it feels when you get in front of a chart. When
438 +|369 |00:37:36 ~-~-> 00:37:39 |you have live funds at your disposal, you want to do something, but then
439 +|370 |00:37:39 ~-~-> 00:37:44 |you're also, I'm scared, what if I do it wrong? Everything's a second guess, and
440 +|371 |00:37:44 ~-~-> 00:37:48 |you're in a hurry. You're just in a hurry to get in it, just to do
441 +|372 |00:37:48 ~-~-> 00:37:55 |something, and that's the trap. You have to still remember what you learned about
442 +|373 |00:37:55 ~-~-> 00:37:59 |trading in a demo. You have to remember those lessons. You have to go back on
443 +|374 |00:37:59 ~-~-> 00:38:03 |that experience, because if you don't refer to that or even have gained any of
444 +|375 |00:38:03 ~-~-> 00:38:06 |that experience, you're going to be impulsively just pressing the button,
445 +|376 |00:38:06 ~-~-> 00:38:10 |and there has to be something in the chart to do a entry on. You just can't
446 +|377 |00:38:10 ~-~-> 00:38:14 |just gamble and see what happens. We're saying that it can go up to that 4028,
447 +|378 |00:38:15 ~-~-> 00:38:19 |level. I'm not interested in taking that, but that's a move. I say it is.
448 +|379 |00:38:19 ~-~-> 00:38:20 |It's a move. It's
449 +|380 |00:38:25 ~-~-> 00:38:32 |I want to use a fair value gap today. That's That's my focus. I'm confident
450 +|381 |00:38:32 ~-~-> 00:38:36 |it'll form. I'm just trying to exercise discipline to show you what it's like to
451 +|382 |00:38:36 ~-~-> 00:38:41 |sit through all the other price action moves. I don't care who's making money
452 +|383 |00:38:41 ~-~-> 00:38:46 |on YouTube. I don't care how many people's posting things on Twitter.
453 +|384 |00:38:47 ~-~-> 00:38:50 |That's not my trade. That's not your trade. You can't go back in time and
454 +|385 |00:38:50 ~-~-> 00:38:54 |enter when they did, if it was even profitable at all. So you have to submit
455 +|386 |00:38:54 ~-~-> 00:38:56 |yourself to this process of learning
456 +|387 |00:38:58 ~-~-> 00:39:01 |to pop up through here and hit that 4020, level
457 +|388 |00:39:05 ~-~-> 00:39:12 |still very, very mixed, which is typical ahead of FOMC, so you have to be a lot
458 +|389 |00:39:12 ~-~-> 00:39:17 |more nimble on days like this, and also by lowering your expectations. So now
459 +|390 |00:39:17 ~-~-> 00:39:22 |think about what's actually occurring here. The markets gapped up at the open.
460 +|391 |00:39:23 ~-~-> 00:39:27 |We had a small little rally higher, and we've dropped, but we have dropped
461 +|392 |00:39:28 ~-~-> 00:39:32 |aggressively. There was no real energetic drop. See that the only thing
462 +|393 |00:39:32 ~-~-> 00:39:36 |we had here was this drop down here, and it quickly with the relationships of
463 +|394 |00:39:36 ~-~-> 00:39:43 |intermarket analysis with the dollar. It canceled out any short here, and if you
464 +|395 |00:39:43 ~-~-> 00:39:45 |missed it, you'll it'll be in the recording. Go back and listen to it.
465 +|396 |00:39:45 ~-~-> 00:39:49 |There's the pop, the 4028, so in my mind, I'm thinking, anyone that's
466 +|397 |00:39:49 ~-~-> 00:39:54 |already trying to sell short, the gap higher and the initial high that's being
467 +|398 |00:39:54 ~-~-> 00:40:00 |formed here, this run here kills them. So now I'm watching very i. Closely. How
468 +|399 |00:40:00 ~-~-> 00:40:05 |that dollar index go back to that original fair value gap. That means the
469 +|400 |00:40:05 ~-~-> 00:40:15 |one at the candle at 944, one minute Dollar Index. If we rally here because
470 +|401 |00:40:15 ~-~-> 00:40:18 |we cut through candles, we're not supplying demand. Cut through the
471 +|402 |00:40:18 ~-~-> 00:40:23 |candles. It's been formed over the last seven or eight of them go back to that
472 +|403 |00:40:23 ~-~-> 00:40:26 |fair value gap, the candle ring right now, basically, is already traded down
473 +|404 |00:40:26 ~-~-> 00:40:30 |into that low of that fair value gap. And I want to see, does it rally higher
474 +|405 |00:40:30 ~-~-> 00:40:36 |on dollar? And if that does this high here on es could be suspect, meaning
475 +|406 |00:40:36 ~-~-> 00:40:40 |that it's just a run on buy stops or anyone short. And then we could look to
476 +|407 |00:40:40 ~-~-> 00:40:45 |see it traded into that 420, or lower, but it has to do so in price. All we're
477 +|408 |00:40:45 ~-~-> 00:40:48 |doing is anticipating the likelihood of that right now.
478 +|409 |00:41:41 ~-~-> 00:41:45 |What I'm doing is on my attention is going through Euro dollar, and I'm
479 +|410 |00:41:45 ~-~-> 00:41:48 |telling you, like, what are you looking at Euro dollar for? I'm looking at Euro
480 +|411 |00:41:49 ~-~-> 00:41:55 |I'm looking at the POUND DOLLAR. I'm looking at the dollar index. I'm looking
481 +|412 |00:41:55 ~-~-> 00:42:02 |at the relationships of that triad and trying to get a measure for where risk
482 +|413 |00:42:02 ~-~-> 00:42:09 |is, is it risk going or risk off? And euro is just consolidating. It hasn't
483 +|414 |00:42:09 ~-~-> 00:42:15 |really done much at all since around 730 it's been in consolidation. Dollar, like
484 +|415 |00:42:15 ~-~-> 00:42:20 |I said, it's came off its lows at 103 and I'm still looking for that 103 13 to
485 +|416 |00:42:20 ~-~-> 00:42:30 |be broken to the upside and how we trade there hasn't gone below on Dollar Index.
486 +|417 |00:42:30 ~-~-> 00:42:40 |Hasn't gone lower than the low formed at 954, 954, is low, and now we have es
487 +|418 |00:42:40 ~-~-> 00:42:41 |coming back down
488 +|419 |00:42:42 ~-~-> 00:42:43 |below these highs here.
489 +|420 |00:42:50 ~-~-> 00:42:52 |Okay, dollars looking favorable now.
490 +|421 |00:42:57 ~-~-> 00:43:02 |So now what we're going to do is we're going to wait to see if this high stays
491 +|422 |00:43:02 ~-~-> 00:43:10 |in place. If we break lower and create a fair value gap in here, between where,
492 +|423 |00:43:12 ~-~-> 00:43:16 |between this low and the high that's formed. We're using that price leg
493 +|424 |00:43:16 ~-~-> 00:43:19 |there. So inside of this range,
494 +|425 |00:43:22 ~-~-> 00:43:29 |this is retraction. It's done. What is taken
495 +|426 |00:43:30 ~-~-> 00:43:36 |by side here with this rally up so inside of this price leg, we're
496 +|427 |00:43:36 ~-~-> 00:43:46 |anticipating now a fair value at the form, and if it can form, I'll use that
497 +|428 |00:43:46 ~-~-> 00:43:51 |one. Excuse me. I'll use that one to try to get a run for five handles. Now I
498 +|429 |00:43:59 ~-~-> 00:44:01 |don't want it to go too fast from here,
499 +|430 |00:44:09 ~-~-> 00:44:15 |Brett's like ICT is trying to trade it. Don't give it to him. Reprice it, lower,
500 +|431 |00:44:15 ~-~-> 00:44:18 |no, fair value gap. He's going to convince everybody today he's
501 +|432 |00:44:24 ~-~-> 00:44:26 |day, and I'll stay here long enough to do it.
502 +|433 |00:44:33 ~-~-> 00:44:38 |Okay, so you can see already, like if we were using turtle soup, turtle soup
503 +|434 |00:44:38 ~-~-> 00:44:43 |would be that run above and just going in there and shorting it because we have
504 +|435 |00:44:43 ~-~-> 00:44:48 |a diverse and suiting the Dow and NASDAQ and es making higher high style didn't
505 +|436 |00:44:48 ~-~-> 00:44:49 |do that,
506 +|437 |00:44:52 ~-~-> 00:44:53 |all right, so
507 +|438 |00:44:56 ~-~-> 00:45:00 |I want to see this candle here create the fair value gap right there. Don't
508 +|439 |00:45:00 ~-~-> 00:45:03 |want to see it go up and have an immediate rebalance. I just want to see
509 +|440 |00:45:03 ~-~-> 00:45:06 |it close this camel, open another one, then trade up into it, but not take out
510 +|441 |00:45:06 ~-~-> 00:45:10 |that low yet. I don't want to see that happen yet. It looks
511 +|442 |00:45:10 ~-~-> 00:45:17 |like it looks like it's run. Dollar index is nicely ran up into the level I
512 +|443 |00:45:17 ~-~-> 00:45:23 |would want to see beautiful, beautiful. And we do have a fair value gap here.
513 +|444 |00:45:29 ~-~-> 00:45:33 |So you can do one of two things here in your practice, you can set a limit order
514 +|445 |00:45:34 ~-~-> 00:45:40 |here at this high plus one tick, and then use a stop of five handles. And
515 +|446 |00:45:42 ~-~-> 00:45:45 |then you then use a take profit of five handles, or you
516 +|447 |00:45:48 ~-~-> 00:45:51 |can wait for it if it can trade up there. And that's like I said, I'm
517 +|448 |00:45:51 ~-~-> 00:45:56 |running the risk of not participating on this one because it's already running
518 +|449 |00:45:56 ~-~-> 00:46:05 |and not giving a return back to it, which is fine. But you didn't get in
519 +|450 |00:46:05 ~-~-> 00:46:09 |ICT. I know there's lots of moves that I don't participate in, just like you're
520 +|451 |00:46:09 ~-~-> 00:46:09 |going to discover.
521 +|452 |00:46:19 ~-~-> 00:46:25 |Now we have a breaker. Okay? So while I don't want to utilize this as my entry,
522 +|453 |00:46:25 ~-~-> 00:46:30 |I do want to bring it to your attention, because it's here now the breaker is
523 +|454 |00:46:30 ~-~-> 00:46:36 |where we have a high, a low and a higher high, where it has taken buy side, as I
524 +|455 |00:46:36 ~-~-> 00:46:41 |outlined, in real time, this buy side that's been taken our attention goes to
525 +|456 |00:46:41 ~-~-> 00:46:46 |the down move prior to the Second theory, higher high. So, in other words,
526 +|457 |00:46:46 ~-~-> 00:46:55 |in short, the low between the two highs. So where's the down close? In that, in
527 +|458 |00:46:55 ~-~-> 00:47:02 |that low here, these candles entirely, all that range, 123123,
528 +|459 |00:47:14 ~-~-> 00:47:22 |so inside this range, that is a bearish breaker. So let's just say it goes up
529 +|460 |00:47:22 ~-~-> 00:47:26 |into this fair value gap here. You can short it, but you have to incorporate
530 +|461 |00:47:26 ~-~-> 00:47:31 |this, because it can trade up into that as well. Because it's a it's a fair
531 +|462 |00:47:31 ~-~-> 00:47:38 |value gap within the breaker. So ideally, I'd really want it to trade up
532 +|463 |00:47:38 ~-~-> 00:47:46 |into here, but it may be asking too much of it. So I'm going to do a lower
533 +|464 |00:47:46 ~-~-> 00:47:50 |probability entry. If we can go right above this high here to see it one more
534 +|465 |00:47:50 ~-~-> 00:47:55 |time, pump into that once more I'll go short risk five handles and see if we
535 +|466 |00:47:55 ~-~-> 00:47:56 |can get five handle run. I'm
536 +|467 |00:48:09 ~-~-> 00:48:19 |the liquidity is obviously sitting right below 4014, 25, so, 401425, all this
537 +|468 |00:48:19 ~-~-> 00:48:25 |smooth lows here, their cell stops resting below that. So if Smart Money
538 +|469 |00:48:25 ~-~-> 00:48:30 |has sold short up here, collecting what the buy stops. So they sold to those buy
539 +|470 |00:48:30 ~-~-> 00:48:34 |stops with this run here. So where are they going to try to get out at ideally,
540 +|471 |00:48:34 ~-~-> 00:48:37 |market efficiency paradigm is they're going to buy from sellers at a lower
541 +|472 |00:48:37 ~-~-> 00:48:43 |price markets here, where are sellers at a lower price below these equal lows.
542 +|473 |00:48:56 ~-~-> 00:49:03 |I can enter here, but my five handles doesn't provide me enough shield, where
543 +|474 |00:49:03 ~-~-> 00:49:06 |we are in that range, with this fair value gap, which is also one of the
544 +|475 |00:49:06 ~-~-> 00:49:10 |things you have to contend with when you're trying to take entries just
545 +|476 |00:49:10 ~-~-> 00:49:14 |because you feel confident it's going to go to a specific level, you still have
546 +|477 |00:49:14 ~-~-> 00:49:19 |to consider the risk, and just because you might be right about where it's
547 +|478 |00:49:19 ~-~-> 00:49:23 |going, you can't chase it. You got to trade. You got to trade in a premium if
548 +|479 |00:49:23 ~-~-> 00:49:27 |you're going short, that means trading in a up close candle. It's one of the
549 +|480 |00:49:27 ~-~-> 00:49:31 |filters that, many times, is going to serve you better than you realize. Now,
550 +|481 |00:49:31 ~-~-> 00:49:37 |if you can sell short and up close candles and buy and down close candles,
551 +|482 |00:49:37 ~-~-> 00:49:41 |you're giving yourself an advantage that most traders don't realize when they're
552 +|483 |00:49:41 ~-~-> 00:49:42 |trying to do injuries do.
553 +|484 |00:50:17 ~-~-> 00:50:19 |Take it into this one immediately. That's what I'm watching, waiting for.
554 +|485 |00:50:28 ~-~-> 00:50:30 |I just pressed that button.
555 +|486 |00:50:33 ~-~-> 00:50:35 |Took forever to get it in there. I
556 +|487 |00:50:50 ~-~-> 00:50:54 |now you just submit to it. If it takes you out, that's fine. If it stops you
557 +|488 |00:50:54 ~-~-> 00:51:02 |out, it's fine. And you want to submit to the idea that how much time does it
558 +|489 |00:51:02 ~-~-> 00:51:09 |take once you enter the trade? How much time does it take for you to see it move
559 +|490 |00:51:09 ~-~-> 00:51:12 |in your favor? Or if it stops you out? How fast did it take you to stop out? Do
560 +|491 |00:51:49 ~-~-> 00:51:53 |Now, obviously I'm using a fair value gap entry, but I'm using the context of
561 +|492 |00:51:53 ~-~-> 00:52:00 |that breaker so it kind of like allows for more of the things I like to look
562 +|493 |00:52:00 ~-~-> 00:52:06 |for in price action, but framing it is, you know, being utilized with other
563 +|494 |00:52:06 ~-~-> 00:52:10 |tools, but hopefully you can least see that the reason why I'm entering is in
564 +|495 |00:52:10 ~-~-> 00:52:13 |that fair value gap right here. Okay, now
565 +|496 |00:52:21 ~-~-> 00:52:25 |there's a small little volume imbalance in here. I want to see it trade through
566 +|497 |00:52:25 ~-~-> 00:52:32 |that and not get back above it once it does go below it. Now you reduce the
567 +|498 |00:52:32 ~-~-> 00:52:37 |risk. Put it right above the breaker that way. If I'm stopped out, it's a
568 +|499 |00:52:37 ~-~-> 00:52:42 |small little loss. Now, all you're doing is studying price action, watching. Does
569 +|500 |00:52:42 ~-~-> 00:52:49 |it still continuously deliver wanting to get down into I have it sit through this
570 +|501 |00:52:49 ~-~-> 00:52:54 |lower here, but if I had more, let's go back to this idea where the sell side is
571 +|502 |00:52:54 ~-~-> 00:53:00 |okay, but when you're practicing, you want to have a five for five, five risk
572 +|503 |00:53:00 ~-~-> 00:53:08 |five, gain. I want to see it right here, stay heavy and go lower. That would be
573 +|504 |00:53:08 ~-~-> 00:53:12 |an immediate rebalance. In other words, kind of like a fair value gap, return
574 +|505 |00:53:12 ~-~-> 00:53:19 |and drops. I want to see es remain heavy. I want to see the dollar climb
575 +|506 |00:53:19 ~-~-> 00:53:22 |back up into 103 16 area.
576 +|507 |00:53:27 ~-~-> 00:53:31 |And also you want to indicate in your journal that you're trading ahead of
577 +|508 |00:53:31 ~-~-> 00:53:37 |FOMC. So you're in a market climate that is not conducive for high precision.
578 +|509 |00:53:37 ~-~-> 00:53:43 |It's not conducive for low resistance, liquidity run means the easy salad days
579 +|510 |00:53:43 ~-~-> 00:53:47 |type trading that that's not, that's not where we're at. But you want to practice
580 +|511 |00:53:47 ~-~-> 00:53:50 |in these conditions, because by practicing in these conditions, you're
581 +|512 |00:53:50 ~-~-> 00:53:56 |preparing yourself, really, for the best. When the market's more free to
582 +|513 |00:53:56 ~-~-> 00:54:01 |move, in other words, when it's easier to see it rally or or drop into levels
583 +|514 |00:54:01 ~-~-> 00:54:04 |that you expected when it's this real sudden movement, all one favor, just
584 +|515 |00:54:04 ~-~-> 00:54:09 |digging into it, that's the type of trades I teach my students to look for.
585 +|516 |00:54:09 ~-~-> 00:54:14 |I look for that as a signature in the marketplace, versus just simply, well,
586 +|517 |00:54:14 ~-~-> 00:54:17 |the markets are moving the day, the markets are trading. So therefore, let
587 +|518 |00:54:17 ~-~-> 00:54:25 |me just go out here and try to make money. That, to me, is not enough. My
588 +|519 |00:54:25 ~-~-> 00:54:29 |eyes watching how we traded that low, I want to see it trade to that low and
589 +|520 |00:54:29 ~-~-> 00:54:33 |expand quickly to get these sell stops. That's what I'm looking for.
590 +|521 |00:54:39 ~-~-> 00:54:43 |Just a little bit of a movement up $1 so far. I want to see it really get
591 +|522 |00:54:43 ~-~-> 00:54:46 |aggressive and dig into that 103 16 and higher. I.
592 +|523 |00:55:08 ~-~-> 00:55:12 |Now you want to remove the risk because you've gone into new sell side, if it
593 +|524 |00:55:12 ~-~-> 00:55:15 |stops you out at this point, who cares? But because we went to this low here,
594 +|525 |00:55:16 ~-~-> 00:55:20 |the market can go back and revisit premium arrays and still not go to that
595 +|526 |00:55:20 ~-~-> 00:55:26 |sell side, which is the reason why I've removed the risk, and now you just
596 +|527 |00:55:26 ~-~-> 00:55:30 |submit to either one. Either it stops you, which you're fine with, it'll be
597 +|528 |00:55:30 ~-~-> 00:55:35 |stopped in profit and it would be a favorable outcome for the exercise, or
598 +|529 |00:55:35 ~-~-> 00:55:39 |it goes to your limit order and it closes your case study out, and you log
599 +|530 |00:55:39 ~-~-> 00:55:43 |it and you record immediately. You don't go to social media and parade around, or
600 +|531 |00:55:43 ~-~-> 00:55:46 |if you get stopped out, you don't go to social media and complain about it. You
601 +|532 |00:55:46 ~-~-> 00:55:53 |go right to your journal. You journal your entry suggesting what all the
602 +|533 |00:55:53 ~-~-> 00:55:58 |things positively that you did in the trade, the observations. Now you saw it
603 +|534 |00:55:58 ~-~-> 00:56:02 |trade down there, but it didn't take the limit order and it was way significantly
604 +|535 |00:56:02 ~-~-> 00:56:06 |enough to blow it. They could have done it. There you go. So there you go. Ice
605 +|536 |00:56:06 ~-~-> 00:56:09 |T's never going to do a live trade. He's never going to call the market. He's
606 +|537 |00:56:09 ~-~-> 00:56:13 |never going to explain it. But yet, here I am doing it. How about that? It's
607 +|538 |00:56:13 ~-~-> 00:56:19 |almost like it's pre recorded. Hindsight. Is that precise enough for
608 +|539 |00:56:19 ~-~-> 00:56:26 |you? So what you want to do is you want to go through how much time, how much
609 +|540 |00:56:26 ~-~-> 00:56:29 |time did it take for that trade to deliver? Obviously, I did a little bit
610 +|541 |00:56:29 ~-~-> 00:56:33 |more than five handles, but, you know, I have to work with what the market's
611 +|542 |00:56:33 ~-~-> 00:56:37 |going to give me, right folks. So right away you should be thinking, and your
612 +|543 |00:56:37 ~-~-> 00:56:40 |corners your mouth should be aching because you watched all this happened,
613 +|544 |00:56:40 ~-~-> 00:56:44 |and you can't believe it, I know, but this stuff happens every single day.
614 +|545 |00:56:45 ~-~-> 00:56:48 |It's been happening for the last 30 years. For me, it's been happening
615 +|546 |00:56:48 ~-~-> 00:56:54 |before I was born. Okay? These markets are absolutely rigged. Okay? They're
616 +|547 |00:56:54 ~-~-> 00:56:59 |absolutely rigged. There's no randomness to it. The only thing that is going to
617 +|548 |00:56:59 ~-~-> 00:57:03 |be random is your emotional impulses. When you're not equipped to know how to
618 +|549 |00:57:03 ~-~-> 00:57:08 |trade, if you don't know what you're looking for, you're going to lose. If
619 +|550 |00:57:08 ~-~-> 00:57:13 |you know a model that you know what you're looking for, then you can aim for
620 +|551 |00:57:13 ~-~-> 00:57:22 |that, and you can measure your progress. But you're not okay. You're not going to
621 +|552 |00:57:22 ~-~-> 00:57:26 |hit the target, unless you have a target, what's the target? Consistency?
622 +|553 |00:57:26 ~-~-> 00:57:31 |You're looking for something that repeats over and over again that's
623 +|554 |00:57:31 ~-~-> 00:57:35 |highly precise. I want you to take a step back for a moment, okay? And folks
624 +|555 |00:57:35 ~-~-> 00:57:39 |understand this is not bragging, because 10 handles is 10 handles. It's not that
625 +|556 |00:57:39 ~-~-> 00:57:44 |big of a deal, okay, but you can make a mountain of a career doing that. But I
626 +|557 |00:57:44 ~-~-> 00:57:47 |want you to take a look at what this chart looks like right here, right now,
627 +|558 |00:57:47 ~-~-> 00:57:54 |and I want you to go back and listen to the recording. There was absolutely zero
628 +|559 |00:57:54 ~-~-> 00:58:03 |anxiety. There was zero emotion. I was not hopped up on goofballs. I wasn't
629 +|560 |00:58:03 ~-~-> 00:58:07 |worrying about the trade panning out. I gave you exactly what I was thinking
630 +|561 |00:58:07 ~-~-> 00:58:12 |because of 30 years experience doing it, I'm lending my experience and what I'm
631 +|562 |00:58:12 ~-~-> 00:58:16 |thinking while I'm watching price. I told you the very things I was looking
632 +|563 |00:58:16 ~-~-> 00:58:24 |at, why I was considering it. I told you about the breaker. I told you how to
633 +|564 |00:58:24 ~-~-> 00:58:30 |frame the breaker, where it should stop. Did it stop at the high of the breaker,
634 +|565 |00:58:31 ~-~-> 00:58:40 |to the tick, baby, to the tick. This up close candle, this up close candle, and
635 +|566 |00:58:40 ~-~-> 00:58:43 |that up close candle that's all my breaker,
636 +|567 |00:58:46 ~-~-> 00:58:50 |that look at this price right here, okay, up here in upper left hand corner,
637 +|568 |00:58:50 ~-~-> 00:58:51 |you see
638 +|569 |00:58:54 ~-~-> 00:59:04 |that right there, that high is 402, 5.75 the high of this candle comes in at
639 +|570 |00:59:04 ~-~-> 00:59:12 |4026, even. So it went one tick, one tick, which is a mohawk. Remember price
640 +|571 |00:59:12 ~-~-> 00:59:19 |has to go up one tick to allow delivery of perfect old high. Think about if you
641 +|572 |00:59:19 ~-~-> 00:59:25 |had a limit order. It has to move. The difference between the bid and ask is
642 +|573 |00:59:25 ~-~-> 00:59:30 |one tick, so it has to do what it has to at least go up there to offer the
643 +|574 |00:59:30 ~-~-> 00:59:36 |opportunity for that high to be booked. But that framework, think about the
644 +|575 |00:59:36 ~-~-> 00:59:40 |questions that many of you have asked and you probably are listening and now
645 +|576 |00:59:40 ~-~-> 00:59:45 |had the answer given to you. How do you know ICT, how do you know that when it
646 +|577 |00:59:45 ~-~-> 00:59:50 |was rallying like that, how do you know that it won't go above that high there?
647 +|578 |00:59:50 ~-~-> 00:59:54 |Think about what I went through this morning with you. Okay, I opened up the
648 +|579 |00:59:54 ~-~-> 00:59:58 |chart. I showed you this shaded area down here. Okay, we'll go back into that
649 +|580 |00:59:58 ~-~-> 01:00:03 |regular trading hours. There. So the difference between yesterday's closing
650 +|581 |01:00:03 ~-~-> 01:00:09 |price and regular trading session to where we opened today at 930 that
651 +|582 |01:00:09 ~-~-> 01:00:13 |separation, that distinction between those two price points, is important.
652 +|583 |01:00:14 ~-~-> 01:00:21 |That's the opening range gap. So if we open to a premium, it opens like it does
653 +|584 |01:00:21 ~-~-> 01:00:26 |here. It rallies, comes back down rallies once more, perfect, perfect.
654 +|585 |01:00:26 ~-~-> 01:00:30 |We're watching now to see that fail. Go back and listen to my commentary. I'm
655 +|586 |01:00:30 ~-~-> 01:00:33 |not concerned it's going to keep rallying higher, because it's already
656 +|587 |01:00:33 ~-~-> 01:00:40 |done. Enough of that overnight. This is a trap. This down here allows them to do
657 +|588 |01:00:40 ~-~-> 01:00:49 |what chase it longs can say, Okay, I missed the initial run up here. Bears go
658 +|589 |01:00:49 ~-~-> 01:00:53 |short. Here, they put their stop loss rate above this high. The market drops
659 +|590 |01:00:53 ~-~-> 01:00:57 |down into the opening range, gap high, and then rallies. Go back and listen to
660 +|591 |01:00:57 ~-~-> 01:01:01 |my commentary. I did not take the short that I was interested in if it would
661 +|592 |01:01:01 ~-~-> 01:01:03 |have kept that candle with a fair amount. Candle with a fair value gap, I
662 +|593 |01:01:03 ~-~-> 01:01:07 |would have shorted that then. But because I was using the dollar index to
663 +|594 |01:01:07 ~-~-> 01:01:13 |filter, it kept me from doing what getting in prematurely. Plus the
664 +|595 |01:01:13 ~-~-> 01:01:18 |structure really wasn't all that. It was just not, it was not there yet. So I
665 +|596 |01:01:18 ~-~-> 01:01:20 |mentioned that how looking at the other markets, I said, Okay, it looks like
666 +|597 |01:01:20 ~-~-> 01:01:23 |NASDAQ is looking like it wants to make a higher wants to make a higher high.
667 +|598 |01:01:23 ~-~-> 01:01:28 |Let's take a look at NASDAQ real quick. I hope you guys can see this is not just
668 +|599 |01:01:28 ~-~-> 01:01:32 |random, made up stuff. It's a logic behind all this. So there's those
669 +|600 |01:01:32 ~-~-> 01:01:35 |relative equal highs. I said we would like to run up above that. It did that.
670 +|601 |01:01:36 ~-~-> 01:01:44 |Look at the Dow. See that divergence there. That's why I was trusting that we
671 +|602 |01:01:44 ~-~-> 01:01:48 |were not going to go higher. And that was absolutely a good breaker. Yes, so
672 +|603 |01:01:48 ~-~-> 01:01:52 |let's go back to ES. I'm answering all your questions. If you just listen to
673 +|604 |01:01:52 ~-~-> 01:01:55 |the boring stuff, folks, it's there. There's a lot of people. I started
674 +|605 |01:01:55 ~-~-> 01:01:58 |watching this video and said he's talking too much, and missed the entire
675 +|606 |01:01:58 ~-~-> 01:02:04 |move. But this down closed candle, these series of three down closed candles, is
676 +|607 |01:02:04 ~-~-> 01:02:10 |the context behind that run up here that stops out anyone that was going short
677 +|608 |01:02:10 ~-~-> 01:02:14 |here because they want to do what they want to fade to get right. Okay, the
678 +|609 |01:02:14 ~-~-> 01:02:19 |algorithm knows that is going to come down, rally through it all the buy stops
679 +|610 |01:02:19 ~-~-> 01:02:23 |are gone. Why is that useful? Just like I mentioned to you, Smart Money will
680 +|611 |01:02:23 ~-~-> 01:02:27 |sell short to those buy stops. They're going to sell to those buyers at a
681 +|612 |01:02:27 ~-~-> 01:02:30 |higher price. Smart Money is accumulating.
682 +|613 |01:02:38 ~-~-> 01:02:42 |Oh my goodness. We're getting Sleepless in Allen, Texas tonight, so we're
683 +|614 |01:02:42 ~-~-> 01:02:44 |looking at this area here,
684 +|615 |01:02:49 ~-~-> 01:02:54 |up in that area, all here, that's where smart money is going short. Okay, so
685 +|616 |01:02:54 ~-~-> 01:02:59 |they're selling short there with the expectation that they want to do what,
686 +|617 |01:02:59 ~-~-> 01:03:04 |buy it back at a cheaper price, but who would be willing to sell it to them at a
687 +|618 |01:03:04 ~-~-> 01:03:08 |cheaper price? Think about who would who would be willing to do that? Anyone
688 +|619 |01:03:08 ~-~-> 01:03:12 |that's long here or went long on here. It's idea that this is support where
689 +|620 |01:03:12 ~-~-> 01:03:18 |they're going to place their stop loss, where they just got wrecked. So when
690 +|621 |01:03:18 ~-~-> 01:03:27 |smart money's considering entering a short the market efficiency paradigm
691 +|622 |01:03:27 ~-~-> 01:03:31 |that I'm teaching you, the way they engage price. They're not looking at
692 +|623 |01:03:31 ~-~-> 01:03:36 |patterns. They're looking at who they can take to the slaughterhouse. They
693 +|624 |01:03:36 ~-~-> 01:03:42 |killed the people that were short when it ran above it. They're done. They're
694 +|625 |01:03:42 ~-~-> 01:03:48 |stopped out with a loss. Anyone that was short here gets stopped out. Anyone that
695 +|626 |01:03:48 ~-~-> 01:03:52 |went long down here, oh, it's gap and go dead. No, it's not. Listen to what ICT
696 +|627 |01:03:52 ~-~-> 01:03:55 |said. We're going to rally up, take a new high, and then we're going to watch
697 +|628 |01:03:55 ~-~-> 01:04:00 |and see, does it peter out? And it did. The market goes back down and takes out
698 +|629 |01:04:00 ~-~-> 01:04:04 |the longs. So who's who's really right? Who I told you was going to be right?
699 +|630 |01:04:04 ~-~-> 01:04:12 |The smart money selling here, and they're going to be buying down here. So
700 +|631 |01:04:12 ~-~-> 01:04:20 |when I'm looking at price, I'm looking at this to that, shorting, buying it
701 +|632 |01:04:20 ~-~-> 01:04:24 |back. But because I told you I was going to limit myself just using a fair value
702 +|633 |01:04:24 ~-~-> 01:04:28 |gap as my entry, I have lots of tools I could have very easily sold short up
703 +|634 |01:04:28 ~-~-> 01:04:32 |here, broke my rules just for ego purposes, and I wrote it down here.
704 +|635 |01:04:32 ~-~-> 01:04:35 |That's that would not have been what I went into this teaching for. I want to
705 +|636 |01:04:35 ~-~-> 01:04:38 |teach you how to do what look for your model. So if your model is the 2022,
706 +|637 |01:04:39 ~-~-> 01:04:45 |model, you just watch me do it. You literally just watch me do it. The
707 +|638 |01:04:45 ~-~-> 01:04:50 |context is selling at a premium. If you can't get that price and you're
708 +|639 |01:04:50 ~-~-> 01:04:54 |submitting yourself to what like I taught in the 2022, model, wait for this
709 +|640 |01:04:54 ~-~-> 01:04:59 |placement. This is the shift in market structure. Right below that low. Then.
710 +|641 |01:05:00 ~-~-> 01:05:03 |We have two fair value gaps. You can sell short in here, but you got to
711 +|642 |01:05:03 ~-~-> 01:05:06 |incorporate this fair value gap too. Why? Because it's inside the breaker,
712 +|643 |01:05:06 ~-~-> 01:05:11 |which is what I outlined here. The market does what it rallies up. I am not
713 +|644 |01:05:11 ~-~-> 01:05:15 |concerned about it making a higher high, because we already have at that high
714 +|645 |01:05:16 ~-~-> 01:05:21 |versus this high. The Dow has made a lower high. That's SMT, that's tipping
715 +|646 |01:05:21 ~-~-> 01:05:28 |its hand. The algorithm is showing its cracking correlation. It's telling you,
716 +|647 |01:05:28 ~-~-> 01:05:33 |much like I was telling you, that this rally is a suspect rally, meaning it's
717 +|648 |01:05:33 ~-~-> 01:05:37 |only going up to take the stops out for anyone that's short. Don't believe me.
718 +|649 |01:05:37 ~-~-> 01:05:42 |Go back and listen to the recording. It'll be there, but I'm not concerned
719 +|650 |01:05:42 ~-~-> 01:05:45 |about it going above that high, because I know that the algorithm is going to
720 +|651 |01:05:45 ~-~-> 01:05:51 |refer back to that candles high, because the context that books price in this
721 +|652 |01:05:51 ~-~-> 01:05:55 |algorithm repeats. It's not random. It's not milling, it's, it's, it's not
722 +|653 |01:05:56 ~-~-> 01:06:01 |milling through a whole different range of ideas and retail things. It's not
723 +|654 |01:06:01 ~-~-> 01:06:08 |looking for what retail logic is it going to use today? It's going where
724 +|655 |01:06:08 ~-~-> 01:06:12 |orders would be resting. It's going where inefficiencies are. That's the
725 +|656 |01:06:12 ~-~-> 01:06:19 |only thing it does, folks, that's it. Or it does this sideways. It's going up for
726 +|657 |01:06:19 ~-~-> 01:06:22 |buy side. Or it's going up to go into a premium fair value, yet some kind of
727 +|658 |01:06:22 ~-~-> 01:06:28 |inefficiency, or it's dropping to old lows where there's sell side, or it's
728 +|659 |01:06:28 ~-~-> 01:06:33 |dropping down to some discount inefficiency. Now look at it through the
729 +|660 |01:06:33 ~-~-> 01:06:39 |lens of the 2022, model. For a second, we see a high. The market rallies up.
730 +|661 |01:06:39 ~-~-> 01:06:46 |Did I use any other time frame? No, I traded right off of this time frame here
731 +|662 |01:06:46 ~-~-> 01:06:53 |using the tools that I've already taught you in 2022, so if this market's going
732 +|663 |01:06:53 ~-~-> 01:06:59 |up, and you're new and you're afraid, I'm afraid to trade. ICT, how do I get
733 +|664 |01:06:59 ~-~-> 01:07:03 |over the fear of that? Follow the rules. The rules say, wait for it to go lower
734 +|665 |01:07:03 ~-~-> 01:07:08 |where it's got to go below a short term swing low it does. So here trades below
735 +|666 |01:07:08 ~-~-> 01:07:16 |it go through. Does it have a fair value gap? Remember the range I told you, from
736 +|667 |01:07:16 ~-~-> 01:07:19 |here to here? Let's go back up through that I'm
737 +|668 |01:07:24 ~-~-> 01:07:30 |in that range, all of this is protraction. So in that range, when it
738 +|669 |01:07:30 ~-~-> 01:07:34 |starts to drop back down, we're going to be anticipating what forming a fair
739 +|670 |01:07:34 ~-~-> 01:07:41 |value gap. There was two of them here. And here the rules I gave you in a 2022,
740 +|671 |01:07:41 ~-~-> 01:07:47 |model last year was, if you have two fair value gaps, you have to at least
741 +|672 |01:07:47 ~-~-> 01:07:51 |allow for price to trade up into that second one, because it can, but more
742 +|673 |01:07:51 ~-~-> 01:07:59 |specifically, because we have that breaker there, because the breaker is a
743 +|674 |01:07:59 ~-~-> 01:08:05 |factor here, we have to at least make an allowance for I'm the wrong candle.
744 +|675 |01:08:05 ~-~-> 01:08:11 |Sorry. You have to make an allowance for it trading up to the high of that so I'm
745 +|676 |01:08:11 ~-~-> 01:08:16 |not concerned if it goes to that candles high in one tick or two. I'm not
746 +|677 |01:08:16 ~-~-> 01:08:20 |concerned about that. I'm not freaking out that it's going to go above that
747 +|678 |01:08:20 ~-~-> 01:08:25 |high, because if it did that, that's fine. That means I'm going to go bullish
748 +|679 |01:08:25 ~-~-> 01:08:28 |now, because it would erase and cancel the SMT divergence between the Dow and
749 +|680 |01:08:29 ~-~-> 01:08:35 |its lower high when the NASDAQ and ES, like we show here, made higher highs. So
750 +|681 |01:08:35 ~-~-> 01:08:39 |it would be a stop out on one trade, but it would give me insight into being a
751 +|682 |01:08:39 ~-~-> 01:08:45 |net long trader the rest of the day because it should not have failed. See
752 +|683 |01:08:45 ~-~-> 01:08:50 |the difference between fearing being stopped out and allowing. If it does,
753 +|684 |01:08:50 ~-~-> 01:08:54 |then I'll change my bias. That's experience. That's someone that has been
754 +|685 |01:08:54 ~-~-> 01:08:59 |here before, and I'm not reacting to price. Did anything that I outlined this
755 +|686 |01:08:59 ~-~-> 01:09:04 |morning seem or indicate to you that I was reacting to anything? No, I
756 +|687 |01:09:04 ~-~-> 01:09:07 |literally outlined everything you see in your charts here.
757 +|688 |01:09:09 ~-~-> 01:09:12 |This is where the price was going to drive gravitate to. It was going to make
758 +|689 |01:09:12 ~-~-> 01:09:13 |a higher high
759 +|690 |01:09:14 ~-~-> 01:09:20 |the model for 2022 if you take the low up, well, let's just do it. There's the
760 +|691 |01:09:20 ~-~-> 01:09:27 |low up to the high right there. Here's the 50% level. That's equilibrium. So we
761 +|692 |01:09:27 ~-~-> 01:09:30 |have to find something as a discount below that level. Well, we have these
762 +|693 |01:09:30 ~-~-> 01:09:35 |lows, this low, and then these relative equal lows here, which one's more likely
763 +|694 |01:09:35 ~-~-> 01:09:39 |to have the bigger pool of liquidity below? Obviously, this one here, and
764 +|695 |01:09:39 ~-~-> 01:09:45 |it's nicely below the 50% level. So we're in a discount. And we smashed all
765 +|696 |01:09:45 ~-~-> 01:09:52 |the way down into it 10 handles I like to over deliver. I told you I'd give you
766 +|697 |01:09:52 ~-~-> 01:09:58 |five. Give you 10, but you could have very easily if it was your exercise,
767 +|698 |01:09:59 ~-~-> 01:10:04 |once it. Out to five handles, collapse it and then watch it the rest of the
768 +|699 |01:10:04 ~-~-> 01:10:08 |time, using the logic that, if you were still in it, how would you be feeling
769 +|700 |01:10:08 ~-~-> 01:10:13 |each time it creates a new candle lower or higher against you? This move right
770 +|701 |01:10:13 ~-~-> 01:10:18 |there. That's my classic teaching of the breaker. This is what you're all
771 +|702 |01:10:18 ~-~-> 01:10:23 |familiar with. But like I said, just because you watch those introductory
772 +|703 |01:10:23 ~-~-> 01:10:27 |lessons, those core content lessons, that's not mentorship, that's the
773 +|704 |01:10:27 ~-~-> 01:10:32 |language. My students have to know those things before they can really learn how
774 +|705 |01:10:32 ~-~-> 01:10:37 |to use the things. I'm not upset about those core content lessons being shared
775 +|706 |01:10:37 ~-~-> 01:10:42 |around. It was intended for it to happen. That's viral advertising. It was
776 +|707 |01:10:42 ~-~-> 01:10:47 |seeds in the minds of everybody that got their hands on it. And I don't feel bad
777 +|708 |01:10:47 ~-~-> 01:10:52 |about putting on my YouTube channel and my students that are mature, that are
778 +|709 |01:10:52 ~-~-> 01:10:55 |able to do these things now, they don't care that those videos are up there,
779 +|710 |01:10:56 ~-~-> 01:10:59 |because they know that there was 1000s of videos outside of those. That's where
780 +|711 |01:10:59 ~-~-> 01:11:03 |the real mentorship was. And they're not going to help you, because they're old,
781 +|712 |01:11:04 ~-~-> 01:11:09 |like you. Just watch this one here. You watched it pan out real time, exactly,
782 +|713 |01:11:10 ~-~-> 01:11:16 |exactly how I teach. There was nothing contrived here, nothing random. And it
783 +|714 |01:11:16 ~-~-> 01:11:19 |should bolster your confidence that what you're learning and who you're learning
784 +|715 |01:11:19 ~-~-> 01:11:29 |from can do it precisely, accurately, with no emotion, no pomp, no ego, no
785 +|716 |01:11:29 ~-~-> 01:11:34 |bragging. It's just the facts. This stuff works. This is the market. It is
786 +|717 |01:11:34 ~-~-> 01:11:39 |the market, folks. It's not pattern stuff. It's not indicator stuff. All I
787 +|718 |01:11:39 ~-~-> 01:11:45 |drew on this chart was the logic to help you see it like I see it, because the
788 +|719 |01:11:45 ~-~-> 01:11:49 |entities that I dub and refer to, commonly as smart money, that's not the
789 +|720 |01:11:49 ~-~-> 01:11:55 |same people you think it is. It's not a market maker. Market making is
790 +|721 |01:11:55 ~-~-> 01:12:02 |algorithmic. Now there's no person that's a market maker. You may hear them
791 +|722 |01:12:02 ~-~-> 01:12:08 |be referred to as a market maker, but they are a dealer. That's all they are.
792 +|723 |01:12:08 ~-~-> 01:12:11 |They're not making the market. They're not controlling price, they're not
793 +|724 |01:12:11 ~-~-> 01:12:15 |sending price to a specific level like this algorithm is now my question to you
794 +|725 |01:12:15 ~-~-> 01:12:19 |is, is, how on earth, if there isn't an algorithm, how can it be that I can see
795 +|726 |01:12:19 ~-~-> 01:12:23 |these things so precisely before the fact, and explain it to you before it
796 +|727 |01:12:23 ~-~-> 01:12:27 |happens, and your real time chart paints it just like I'm showing you. Mine is
797 +|728 |01:12:28 ~-~-> 01:12:33 |because there is an algorithm, and I'm sorry if that upsets your entire
798 +|729 |01:12:33 ~-~-> 01:12:39 |paradigm, if that conflicts with your teachings, your mentorships, your logic,
799 +|730 |01:12:39 ~-~-> 01:12:45 |your book sales, I'm sorry. I'm not meant to, you know, upset you. I'm here
800 +|731 |01:12:45 ~-~-> 01:12:50 |to open your eyes to what's really going on. And I can do this every day, and
801 +|732 |01:12:50 ~-~-> 01:12:54 |damn it, I'm ready to do it in court. I can do it, baby, let me do it, because
802 +|733 |01:12:54 ~-~-> 01:12:55 |I'm going to smoke
803 +|734 |01:12:55 ~-~-> 01:13:00 |your ass. Please, pretty please, wish it your own time. Yeah, hope
804 +|735 |01:13:03 ~-~-> 01:13:05 |you found it so insightful today, folks,
805 +|736 |01:13:06 ~-~-> 01:13:09 |until next time, be safe.
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