ICT YT - 2023-03-21 - Live Tape Reading - Conquering Your Fear Of Entries.srt
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-11-05 12:26
Outline
02:33 - FOMC and Market Expectations
- ICT discusses the upcoming FOMC meeting, which is expected to slow down trading as traders wait for the Fed's actions.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of not trying to forecast the Fed's actions, as it leads to self-deception.
- The market is in a relaxed state, waiting for the opening range to complete, typically between 9:30 and 10:00.
- ICT aims for a low threshold objective of five handles in the ES, rather than larger polls.
06:42 - Teaching Approach and Market Psychology
- ICT explains his teaching approach, focusing on low-threshold objectives to avoid the pressure of getting rich quickly.
- He shares his personal experience of fear and anxiety when starting to trade, which he aims to help his students overcome.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of using a demo account for practice before trading with real funds.
- He discusses the fear of new traders, including his son, who is embarking on a funded account challenge.
28:32 - Fair Value Gap and Market Entry
- ICT introduces the concept of a fair value gap as a visually easy thing to find in a price chart.
- He explains the importance of identifying buy-side and sell-side liquidity levels.
- ICT limits his perspective to a five-minute chart to mimic the view of a trader with limited experience.
- He discusses the significance of the opening range gap and the potential for trading back into that range.
53:56 - Overcoming Fear and Anxiety
- ICT shares his personal experience of fear and anxiety when he first started trading in the 1990s.
- He emphasizes the importance of not overthinking and removing leverage to reduce fear.
- ICT advises new traders to start with one contract and gradually increase as they gain experience.
- He discusses the importance of not blocking out mistakes and learning from them.
54:11 - Market Analysis and Entry Drills
- ICT analyzes the market conditions, focusing on the dollar index and its impact on other markets.
- He explains the concept of a bearish breaker and its significance in market analysis.
- ICT discusses the importance of waiting for the right entry point and not rushing into trades.
- He emphasizes the need for discipline and patience in trading.
55:54 - Live Trade Example and Explanation
- ICT provides a live trade example, explaining his thought process and entry criteria.
- He discusses the importance of using a fair value gap and incorporating other market conditions.
- ICT explains the significance of the breaker and how it influences market behavior.
- He emphasizes the importance of journaling trades and learning from both successful and unsuccessful entries.
57:33 - Market Conditions and Trading Strategies
- ICT discusses the mixed market conditions ahead of FOMC and the need for nimbleness in trading.
- He explains the importance of lowering expectations and being prepared for market volatility.
- ICT emphasizes the need for consistent practice in various market conditions to build trading skills.
- He discusses the importance of understanding market structure and using it to inform trading decisions.
57:45 - Smart Money and Market Efficiency
- ICT explains the concept of smart money and how they engage price in the market.
- He discusses the importance of understanding market inefficiencies and where orders would be resting.
- ICT emphasizes the need for traders to focus on price action and not get distracted by market noise.
- He explains the significance of using tools like the 2022 model to guide trading decisions.
01:12:31 - Final Thoughts and Market Insights
- ICT reflects on the importance of consistency and precision in trading.
- He emphasizes the need for traders to have a target and measure their progress.
- ICT discusses the importance of understanding market logic and not relying on random patterns.
- He concludes by encouraging traders to practice and learn from their experiences to build long-term success.
Transcript
| 1 | 00:02:33 --> 00:02:38 | ICT: Good morning folks, good morning guys. Give me a heads up on Twitter, if |
| 2 | 00:02:39 --> 00:02:43 | the all like the audio and volume is okay, and if you could |
| 3 | 00:02:46 --> 00:02:47 | see the ES chart. |
| 4 | 00:02:59 --> 00:03:09 | Thank you, Leon. The volume good, not that I can do anything better than I'm |
| 5 | 00:03:09 --> 00:03:15 | doing now. My microphones volume is all the way up. I'm literally within kissing |
| 6 | 00:03:15 --> 00:03:24 | distance. So that's where we're at with this. Okay, I'm Bear with me one second. |
| 7 | 00:03:24 --> 00:03:25 | Okay. |
| 8 | 00:03:36 --> 00:03:43 | All right, so today, we embark on a topic that many of you have been |
| 9 | 00:03:44 --> 00:03:51 | chomping at the bit to get to, which is pushing the button. So obviously, |
| 10 | 00:03:51 --> 00:03:57 | tomorrow we have FOMC. So that creates the likelihood of a rather slow trading |
| 11 | 00:03:57 --> 00:04:02 | session. A lot of folks just waiting to see what the Fed will be doing tomorrow. |
| 12 | 00:04:02 --> 00:04:07 | Everyone's making their bets as to what to expect, what not to expect. I don't |
| 13 | 00:04:07 --> 00:04:11 | know. Okay, so I'm not I don't ever try to go in to the market and try to |
| 14 | 00:04:11 --> 00:04:19 | forecast the actions of the Fed. So I think anyone that tries to do that is |
| 15 | 00:04:19 --> 00:04:28 | just fooling themselves, or at least attempting to fool themselves. So while |
| 16 | 00:04:28 --> 00:04:32 | we're waiting for the morning sessions opening range to complete, which is |
| 17 | 00:04:32 --> 00:04:40 | typically 930 to 10 o'clock, we keep a relaxed view on the marketplace. I'm not |
| 18 | 00:04:40 --> 00:04:43 | trying to go in with any kind of hard line bias, yet. I want to let want to |
| 19 | 00:04:43 --> 00:04:49 | let the market itself tell me what to look for, and all we're looking for this |
| 20 | 00:04:49 --> 00:04:54 | morning is a small little opportunity to get what I teach as a low threshold |
| 21 | 00:04:54 --> 00:05:00 | objective, which is five handles in the ES. So while obviously. Later in the |
| 22 | 00:05:00 --> 00:05:05 | year, you'll see me do larger polls where we're doing 2030, 4050, handle |
| 23 | 00:05:05 --> 00:05:10 | runs. There will be days for that. Today's not one of them. So I kind of |
| 24 | 00:05:10 --> 00:05:15 | like want to beat on the drum of how I teach all of my students to start with, |
| 25 | 00:05:15 --> 00:05:20 | which is a really low hanging fruit objective. I believe that anyone that |
| 26 | 00:05:20 --> 00:05:25 | goes into this with that mindset, in terms of studying like that, not trying |
| 27 | 00:05:25 --> 00:05:29 | to get rich overnight, not trying to get rich and at all really, just trying to |
| 28 | 00:05:29 --> 00:05:34 | carve out an opportunity that repeats over and over again, that you like, that |
| 29 | 00:05:34 --> 00:05:39 | you can find comfort and seem being patient looking for it, allowing the |
| 30 | 00:05:39 --> 00:05:46 | market to present as many advantageous signatures in our favor that would |
| 31 | 00:05:46 --> 00:05:52 | warrant a price move that is, at least by definition the way I define it, high |
| 32 | 00:05:52 --> 00:05:58 | probability. So I'm willing to submit to a longer time than I normally am this |
| 33 | 00:05:58 --> 00:06:04 | morning. Usually I do about an hour or so, and then I cut bait or whatever. I'm |
| 34 | 00:06:04 --> 00:06:09 | going to try to stay with you this morning until we get an opportunity that |
| 35 | 00:06:09 --> 00:06:13 | fits my criteria. So I'll kind of give you the nuts and bolts as to why I |
| 36 | 00:06:13 --> 00:06:20 | believe it should do what I expect it to do. I want to preface it by saying, and |
| 37 | 00:06:20 --> 00:06:24 | most of you already know this. It's been with me for a long time. This is not a |
| 38 | 00:06:24 --> 00:06:30 | signal service, okay, let me remind you what the disclaimer here as I talk |
| 39 | 00:06:40 --> 00:06:46 | that disclaimer will be popping up a few times during this presentation today. It |
| 40 | 00:06:46 --> 00:06:52 | is not an invitation for you to copy. It is not an invitation for you to try to |
| 41 | 00:06:52 --> 00:06:57 | fix your draw down. It's not an invitation for you to get your last |
| 42 | 00:06:57 --> 00:07:01 | little piece of your funded account challenge passed. Okay, I'm going to |
| 43 | 00:07:01 --> 00:07:07 | give you certain exercises today, and I'm also going to tell you where I |
| 44 | 00:07:07 --> 00:07:14 | believe it's going to go. I'm going to inspire you to use your demo. Okay, I |
| 45 | 00:07:14 --> 00:07:19 | don't. I don't want you to use your Live account. If you're trading with anything |
| 46 | 00:07:19 --> 00:07:23 | I say today, you're absolutely doing it wrong, and you're going to regret it. |
| 47 | 00:07:24 --> 00:07:31 | Okay, so what we're doing is I'm teaching my son, who is embarking on a |
| 48 | 00:07:31 --> 00:07:35 | funded account challenge, and I won't name the company here, because I don't |
| 49 | 00:07:35 --> 00:07:39 | want to represent anybody, and I'm not suggesting that they're good or bad. I'm |
| 50 | 00:07:39 --> 00:07:44 | just saying that he's making an attempt to do. So that's where he wants to go |
| 51 | 00:07:44 --> 00:07:48 | with it. He doesn't want me to give him money to do it, which is great. But his |
| 52 | 00:07:48 --> 00:07:53 | concern, as a new student of the markets, and he is absolutely green, he |
| 53 | 00:07:53 --> 00:08:00 | doesn't know how to do much of anything. So his concern is He's fearful of |
| 54 | 00:08:00 --> 00:08:05 | getting in and that was one of the initial things I had in the 90s. When I |
| 55 | 00:08:05 --> 00:08:10 | first started trading commodities, I was fearful. I didn't know really what I was |
| 56 | 00:08:10 --> 00:08:17 | looking for. And it was manifesting itself in my anxiety about when and what |
| 57 | 00:08:17 --> 00:08:20 | market I should be trading. What time frame should I be trading, if you're new |
| 58 | 00:08:20 --> 00:08:27 | to all of this market stuff and or even ICT content, it can be a little bit |
| 59 | 00:08:27 --> 00:08:30 | bewildering, you know, like, what time frame should I use? What market should I |
| 60 | 00:08:30 --> 00:08:36 | trade? You know, what setup, what's the what's the thing I'm looking for? And |
| 61 | 00:08:36 --> 00:08:42 | the reason why I teach the way I do is I present lots of different approaches to |
| 62 | 00:08:42 --> 00:08:47 | skinning that cap, but it allows you to bring in your own personality. Now |
| 63 | 00:08:47 --> 00:08:54 | today, unfortunately, I'm going to try to force one particular approach to |
| 64 | 00:08:55 --> 00:08:59 | getting in, and I'm going to try to utilize a fair value gap, which is |
| 65 | 00:09:00 --> 00:09:10 | predominantly the most visually easy thing to find in a price chart. Much |
| 66 | 00:09:10 --> 00:09:14 | like looking at equal lows that we target for sell side liquidity, that's |
| 67 | 00:09:14 --> 00:09:19 | where we think that the market's likely to draw to much like we expect equal |
| 68 | 00:09:19 --> 00:09:24 | highs to be a draw for buy side liquidity. Those types of things are |
| 69 | 00:09:24 --> 00:09:29 | pretty generic. They're they're not hiding from you. In fact, it's next to |
| 70 | 00:09:29 --> 00:09:38 | impossible to not see them, meaning all we're looking for is a clear indication |
| 71 | 00:09:38 --> 00:09:48 | that the market's likely to reach into some level of buy side or sell side, and |
| 72 | 00:09:48 --> 00:09:53 | I'm submitting to not looking at anything this morning, because I want to |
| 73 | 00:09:53 --> 00:09:59 | kind of like present the opportunity in the closest manner to someone that. |
| 74 | 00:10:00 --> 00:10:05 | Doesn't know what I'm teaching, so I'm limiting my perspective to just this |
| 75 | 00:10:05 --> 00:10:10 | five minute chart. Now, you don't want to be doing this. Obviously, the market |
| 76 | 00:10:10 --> 00:10:13 | just opened up, by the way. You don't want to do this if you're trying to |
| 77 | 00:10:13 --> 00:10:18 | trade with real funds. But try trying to pantomime as close as I can to someone |
| 78 | 00:10:18 --> 00:10:22 | that would have a limited perspective, which is someone that doesn't look at |
| 79 | 00:10:22 --> 00:10:26 | higher Time Frame charts, someone that doesn't look at much of anything except |
| 80 | 00:10:26 --> 00:10:30 | for the chart they're looking at at the time and usually it's a one minute chart |
| 81 | 00:10:30 --> 00:10:33 | or five minute chart, because me and other people on the internet have |
| 82 | 00:10:33 --> 00:10:38 | showcased opportunities that we're presenting on those time frames. So |
| 83 | 00:10:38 --> 00:10:42 | therefore the audience members will gravitate to those time frames, thinking |
| 84 | 00:10:42 --> 00:10:45 | that that's the only way to do it when it's not, it's just, it's a good |
| 85 | 00:10:45 --> 00:10:49 | teaching medium for me because it gives lots of opportunity, plus it gives no |
| 86 | 00:10:49 --> 00:10:57 | room for any delay, like it's right there on the on the fly. And this five |
| 87 | 00:10:57 --> 00:11:03 | minute chart may not be the time frame I'm going to use on I pulled that up to |
| 88 | 00:11:03 --> 00:11:10 | show the Monday closing regular session price, which is that 3984 so just |
| 89 | 00:11:10 --> 00:11:15 | sticking to this time frame here, we're opening up with a premium, premium, in |
| 90 | 00:11:15 --> 00:11:19 | the sense that we are opening up with a gap from yesterday's close. So we've |
| 91 | 00:11:19 --> 00:11:26 | worked higher overnight. And if you go to your regular trading hours tab, you |
| 92 | 00:11:26 --> 00:11:32 | click on that, there's the gap we're looking at here. Okay, so it's a very |
| 93 | 00:11:32 --> 00:11:36 | significant gap. Whenever it's like that, I like to see a little bit of a |
| 94 | 00:11:36 --> 00:11:41 | move to the upside, to draw in the public, make them want to chase it, and |
| 95 | 00:11:41 --> 00:11:45 | then typically, what it'll generally do, not all the time, but generally it'll |
| 96 | 00:11:45 --> 00:11:47 | want to move back down inside of that range. And what range Am I really, |
| 97 | 00:11:47 --> 00:11:55 | really speaking about? Let's outline that now. So using the regular session |
| 98 | 00:11:55 --> 00:12:06 | close price here, up to the opening price I'm this morning. So that gap, |
| 99 | 00:12:07 --> 00:12:16 | which is significant going into this morning, I want you to focus on the |
| 100 | 00:12:16 --> 00:12:21 | potential for just trading back into that range that's shaded here. We're not |
| 101 | 00:12:21 --> 00:12:25 | trying to make the case that it's going to trade all the way back down to 3984 |
| 102 | 00:12:26 --> 00:12:31 | 50. That's not an argument. I'm trying to pose to you. What I'm suggesting is, |
| 103 | 00:12:31 --> 00:12:37 | can we see a five handle price run from wherever we trade up to? And I'm not |
| 104 | 00:12:37 --> 00:12:42 | trying to pick the top I'm going to let the market indicate that it's stopped, |
| 105 | 00:12:42 --> 00:12:47 | at least for the short term, going higher. I'm not trying to go long. I'm |
| 106 | 00:12:47 --> 00:12:53 | going to try to look for something that gets into that range here. So I'm giving |
| 107 | 00:12:53 --> 00:12:58 | you a directional bias that I'm looking to operate in doesn't mean that it can't |
| 108 | 00:12:58 --> 00:13:02 | go higher. Doesn't mean it can't go down to the previous session, closing price. |
| 109 | 00:13:03 --> 00:13:08 | We're not trying to forecast that. Remember, the argument here is, how does |
| 110 | 00:13:09 --> 00:13:15 | one conquer fear of getting in? How do you conquer that? And you probably had |
| 111 | 00:13:15 --> 00:13:20 | anxiety, especially if you got lucky enough to get a funded account where |
| 112 | 00:13:20 --> 00:13:24 | you've passed the challenge, and now they give you the funded account, and |
| 113 | 00:13:24 --> 00:13:29 | then suddenly you're met with this new anxiety, this new let me go back to the |
| 114 | 00:13:29 --> 00:13:35 | electronic session. Now. Just be mindful that this shaded area here, that's our |
| 115 | 00:13:36 --> 00:13:41 | opening range gap, so where we closed yesterday or previous day to where we |
| 116 | 00:13:41 --> 00:13:45 | open. That's what's being highlighted there. Okay, so when I drop down into |
| 117 | 00:13:45 --> 00:13:49 | the electronic trading hours, that shaded area is what we're representing |
| 118 | 00:13:49 --> 00:14:00 | there. Okay, so when I first started in 1992 I was admittedly in a rush to get |
| 119 | 00:14:00 --> 00:14:05 | the account opened up. But then, once the account was was opened, I was frozen |
| 120 | 00:14:05 --> 00:14:10 | with fear, and everything I was looking at on the chart seemed like it was |
| 121 | 00:14:10 --> 00:14:14 | Greek, whereas I thought before I knew what I was looking for, when I really |
| 122 | 00:14:14 --> 00:14:22 | didn't, but I was fearful and paranoid about doing anything, because I was |
| 123 | 00:14:22 --> 00:14:27 | afraid of that first trade being what wrong. I was afraid of taking the loss. |
| 124 | 00:14:27 --> 00:14:32 | I was afraid of doing it incorrectly, and no one knew what I was doing. They |
| 125 | 00:14:32 --> 00:14:36 | didn't know I had money in the account. They didn't know me as a trader. I |
| 126 | 00:14:36 --> 00:14:39 | wasn't online. I wasn't inner circle trader, yet, I was the guy that just |
| 127 | 00:14:39 --> 00:14:45 | opened up a trading account with Fox investments paying $100 per round, turn |
| 128 | 00:14:46 --> 00:14:52 | per contract. Yes, it was robbery, but that's what we were told. That was the |
| 129 | 00:14:52 --> 00:14:55 | normal back then. So a discount broker was like Lynn wall dock, where you paid |
| 130 | 00:14:55 --> 00:15:04 | 30 some dollars per contract. So I was fearful my. Much, much in the vein that |
| 131 | 00:15:04 --> 00:15:08 | most of you would have doing it wrong. But I was also afraid of because I only |
| 132 | 00:15:08 --> 00:15:13 | had $2,500 in the account, which was extremely under capitalized, like I |
| 133 | 00:15:13 --> 00:15:20 | didn't have enough money. So what I was thinking was, not only do I have to be |
| 134 | 00:15:20 --> 00:15:25 | right about my trade, but also have to be right about my entry, not going into |
| 135 | 00:15:25 --> 00:15:29 | too much drawdown, because soon as I put the trade on, they're going to do what, |
| 136 | 00:15:29 --> 00:15:32 | they're going to take that commission right out of that. So I got to cover |
| 137 | 00:15:32 --> 00:15:36 | $100 right away. So if I'm trading the grain market like soybeans, I have to |
| 138 | 00:15:36 --> 00:15:41 | have at least two cents of a move, because each penny move is 50 Cent, I'm |
| 139 | 00:15:41 --> 00:15:47 | sorry, $50 much like a yes, mini contract. So I was already overthinking |
| 140 | 00:15:47 --> 00:15:53 | everything, and that anxiety caused me to be much like a deer in headlights. |
| 141 | 00:15:54 --> 00:16:00 | And let me also talk about, you know, real quick, this. This is about teaching |
| 142 | 00:16:00 --> 00:16:04 | you how to overcome fear. It's not about teaching you to follow me and uses as |
| 143 | 00:16:04 --> 00:16:09 | signals. Because I know some of you are here just for that very reason, if |
| 144 | 00:16:09 --> 00:16:12 | you're not listening to what I'm teaching, it's not going to be |
| 145 | 00:16:12 --> 00:16:15 | beneficial to you. I could get out here and push the button to meet right all |
| 146 | 00:16:15 --> 00:16:19 | day long, but it's not making you better. It's not teaching you how to do |
| 147 | 00:16:19 --> 00:16:22 | it on your own, which is really what I'm trying to do here. It's only reason why |
| 148 | 00:16:22 --> 00:16:27 | I'm even doing live streams is to show you how to do it. And my son, who's |
| 149 | 00:16:27 --> 00:16:31 | hopefully going to learn from this and he wasn't privy to all this stuff that |
| 150 | 00:16:31 --> 00:16:35 | I'm talking about now, because he wasn't interested in trading these typical |
| 151 | 00:16:35 --> 00:16:41 | teenage kid video games and high school antics that kids do. But |
| 152 | 00:16:44 --> 00:16:48 | my concern, much like all of yours, if you've ever experienced fear, and some |
| 153 | 00:16:48 --> 00:16:52 | of you probably are fearful doing it wrong, even in a demo account, I've had |
| 154 | 00:16:52 --> 00:16:57 | many people reach out to me that they have ruined several demo accounts not |
| 155 | 00:16:57 --> 00:17:00 | knowing what they're doing, and it is so frustrated they can't even get to the |
| 156 | 00:17:00 --> 00:17:06 | point where you can push a button there, which is extreme anxiety, but you're |
| 157 | 00:17:06 --> 00:17:11 | placing too much emphasis on the outcome being perfect for you in the beginning, |
| 158 | 00:17:12 --> 00:17:17 | as I'll show you today, you want to exercise and do drills, and I'm going to |
| 159 | 00:17:17 --> 00:17:22 | teach you how to cope with the initial fear of getting into a market move and |
| 160 | 00:17:22 --> 00:17:27 | not worrying about that outcome being profitable. Now, before I close the |
| 161 | 00:17:27 --> 00:17:30 | session, obviously, my goal is to find something that moves five handles that's |
| 162 | 00:17:30 --> 00:17:33 | that's obviously the intention today. But I'm also going to present |
| 163 | 00:17:33 --> 00:17:36 | opportunities where I want you to think about what you're being shown in the |
| 164 | 00:17:37 --> 00:17:41 | chart. I'm going to point to something and ask you to conceptualize what it is |
| 165 | 00:17:41 --> 00:17:46 | I'm pointing at, and does it make sense to utilize that as an entry versus the |
| 166 | 00:17:46 --> 00:17:52 | ones that you'll actually see me push the button on? Now it's a it's a skill |
| 167 | 00:17:52 --> 00:17:57 | set that you'll obviously learn over time, but you can't just expect with a |
| 168 | 00:17:57 --> 00:18:01 | live account, whether it be a funded account or your actual funds in a |
| 169 | 00:18:01 --> 00:18:05 | traditional broker. You can't expect those types of conditions just to |
| 170 | 00:18:05 --> 00:18:08 | materialize magic and all of a sudden, now you know how to trade because you're |
| 171 | 00:18:08 --> 00:18:13 | using real money now, which is the reason why I'm an opponent to anyone |
| 172 | 00:18:13 --> 00:18:17 | teaching that people should just learn how to trade with real money. You don't |
| 173 | 00:18:17 --> 00:18:22 | learn how to trade with real money. You learn how to engage risk where you |
| 174 | 00:18:22 --> 00:18:27 | didn't have that before in paper trading and demo trading, but you learned how to |
| 175 | 00:18:27 --> 00:18:31 | trade with a demo. That's what a demo does. The demo is not just to |
| 176 | 00:18:31 --> 00:18:35 | familiarize yourself with a platform or broker. It's absolutely to teach you how |
| 177 | 00:18:35 --> 00:18:39 | to trade. And anyone that says otherwise, is this a fool? And this is |
| 178 | 00:18:39 --> 00:18:45 | the bottom line. So we're looking at a market that has a little bit of a mixed |
| 179 | 00:18:45 --> 00:18:49 | bag this morning, much like we had yesterday. I was calling most of |
| 180 | 00:18:49 --> 00:18:53 | everything you saw yesterday, and yes, on my Twitter feed, so you can go back |
| 181 | 00:18:53 --> 00:18:59 | and take a look at that. But today we have the dollar index. It's come off of |
| 182 | 00:18:59 --> 00:19:06 | its lows from 930 back into the range that was formed from 915 to 930 I'd like |
| 183 | 00:19:06 --> 00:19:11 | to see it mount a run above. You're welcome to check your charts. I don't |
| 184 | 00:19:11 --> 00:19:18 | want to toggle too much and make the mistake of losing audio the high of 103, |
| 185 | 00:19:18 --> 00:19:25 | 13. I want to see it trade above that. That would indicate there's likeliness |
| 186 | 00:19:26 --> 00:19:33 | to see the shaded area on es be revisited. And again, we're just looking |
| 187 | 00:19:33 --> 00:19:40 | for an opportunity to frame a five handle run, which is not a lot. And |
| 188 | 00:19:41 --> 00:19:45 | right away you should be thinking, How much could I be risking with that? Well, |
| 189 | 00:19:45 --> 00:19:50 | when you first encounter doing entry drills, where you're practicing with |
| 190 | 00:19:50 --> 00:19:54 | your demo account or your paper trading account, which is how you do this, |
| 191 | 00:19:55 --> 00:19:58 | you're using one contract. Now, I know some of you out there that are trying to |
| 192 | 00:19:58 --> 00:20:02 | make a name for yourself. Rolling and making up a bunch of nonsense. You're |
| 193 | 00:20:02 --> 00:20:06 | going to get out there, and you're going to say, but I trade 40 contracts and 30 |
| 194 | 00:20:06 --> 00:20:09 | contracts and blow my account out in front of everybody on live streams and |
| 195 | 00:20:09 --> 00:20:13 | pretend it doesn't happen. What we're doing is trying to teach you how to |
| 196 | 00:20:13 --> 00:20:19 | overcome the fear that fear, that anxiety, is rooted in number one, the |
| 197 | 00:20:19 --> 00:20:29 | leverage. Right away. The easiest thing to do to remove fear or to squash it any |
| 198 | 00:20:29 --> 00:20:35 | anxiety, is to remove the leverage. Dial that back just because your funded |
| 199 | 00:20:35 --> 00:20:39 | account says you can trade with 15 contracts. That's not an invitation for |
| 200 | 00:20:39 --> 00:20:44 | you, as my student that think that that's appropriate, that's a that's a |
| 201 | 00:20:44 --> 00:20:48 | lot of risk for someone that's just now getting a funded account. I mean, |
| 202 | 00:20:48 --> 00:20:51 | you're, you're you're new. You don't have the experience. You have no idea |
| 203 | 00:20:51 --> 00:20:56 | what it feels like to watch an account balance fluctuate with that measure of |
| 204 | 00:20:58 --> 00:21:05 | capital on each point fluctuation you so you want to start with one contract, and |
| 205 | 00:21:05 --> 00:21:08 | you want to desensitize yourself, because that same five PIP handle or |
| 206 | 00:21:08 --> 00:21:16 | summary, that five point run in ES, you can do the math and over time, when you |
| 207 | 00:21:16 --> 00:21:20 | can graduate to two contracts, three contracts, Four contracts, or even opt |
| 208 | 00:21:20 --> 00:21:28 | into that 15 contracts per trade, you'll have the experience working with price |
| 209 | 00:21:28 --> 00:21:35 | action that's associated with real monetary loss and potential gain. You |
| 210 | 00:21:35 --> 00:21:40 | just can't simply go out there and say, Well, I'm ready for it now. I'm gonna |
| 211 | 00:21:40 --> 00:21:43 | I'm gonna I'm gonna go out there and just plunge into the whatever the amount |
| 212 | 00:21:43 --> 00:21:48 | of contracts they allow me. I'm gonna do that. When I was teaching predominantly |
| 213 | 00:21:48 --> 00:21:54 | the forex markets, I mentioned it many times. Just because you can leverage as |
| 214 | 00:21:54 --> 00:21:58 | much as you can leverage with the broker, you should not be doing that, |
| 215 | 00:21:58 --> 00:22:02 | because all you're doing is increasing the likelihood that you're going to |
| 216 | 00:22:02 --> 00:22:05 | blow, you're going to lose, and you're going to be fearful the entire time |
| 217 | 00:22:05 --> 00:22:09 | you're in the marketplace. So you want this to be very boring. You don't have |
| 218 | 00:22:09 --> 00:22:14 | any kind of emotion attached to it, any kind of excitement, no kind of fanfare, |
| 219 | 00:22:14 --> 00:22:20 | because if you remove all that, your attention is going to be on price |
| 220 | 00:22:20 --> 00:22:25 | action, not how much you can make, or worrying about how much you're going to |
| 221 | 00:22:25 --> 00:22:31 | lose. And that's unfortunately, the the case with most new traders is that they |
| 222 | 00:22:32 --> 00:22:36 | they want to gamble much like the lottery and how much they can put on the |
| 223 | 00:22:36 --> 00:22:41 | bet, and just hope it works out in their favor, not realizing that if they just |
| 224 | 00:22:41 --> 00:22:46 | did very little risk, they can take lots of trades and still stay in the game |
| 225 | 00:22:46 --> 00:22:51 | long enough to get the eventual outcome that they're looking for. If it's not, |
| 226 | 00:22:51 --> 00:22:54 | get rich over quick. I'm sorry, get rich overnight, real quick, because that's |
| 227 | 00:22:54 --> 00:23:03 | not what you should be doing here. So far, we're just marking time on. Es |
| 228 | 00:23:03 --> 00:23:09 | hasn't done too much of anything. I'm looking at the NASDAQ. It's not doing |
| 229 | 00:23:09 --> 00:23:12 | much at all either, but the Dow is certainly weaker. |
| 230 | 00:23:14 --> 00:23:15 | It's coming off of its |
| 231 | 00:23:16 --> 00:23:23 | run higher. It's posted this morning, early on, and I'm watching, there's a |
| 232 | 00:23:23 --> 00:23:30 | volume imbalance at one Oh 3.06 on the one minute chart of dollar. So my eyes |
| 233 | 00:23:30 --> 00:23:36 | there, I want to see it. Kind of respect that and still pressing to 103 13, that |
| 234 | 00:23:36 --> 00:23:41 | rallying higher on dollar would be risk off near term, meaning that it's easier |
| 235 | 00:23:41 --> 00:23:47 | for foreign currencies like British Pound versus US dollar, Dow, NASDAQ and |
| 236 | 00:23:47 --> 00:23:52 | ES to trade softer, go lower. It doesn't mean I'm picking the top it's not an |
| 237 | 00:23:52 --> 00:23:57 | indication that it's going to crash. All I'm saying is it puts things in motion |
| 238 | 00:23:57 --> 00:24:03 | that would be likely supportive of of weaker, lower prices, we already gapped |
| 239 | 00:24:03 --> 00:24:10 | higher. It's already had that initial move higher. There's this consolidation. |
| 240 | 00:24:10 --> 00:24:15 | They broke out. Traders that use this type of idea to to buy want to break |
| 241 | 00:24:15 --> 00:24:18 | out. They're already in this here. So |
| 242 | 00:24:25 --> 00:24:29 | drop down into a one minute chart. Now, actually, let's just go through four |
| 243 | 00:24:29 --> 00:24:29 | we're |
| 244 | 00:24:46 --> 00:24:50 | so the exercise I'm teaching you today, when we get into a setting where there's |
| 245 | 00:24:50 --> 00:24:54 | opportunity there, because there's nothing here, yet, remember the first 30 |
| 246 | 00:24:54 --> 00:24:58 | minutes as a trader, trading with ES, you want to be willing to submit to the |
| 247 | 00:24:58 --> 00:25:02 | first 30 minutes? It doesn't. Mean that you can't find a setup. If it's there, |
| 248 | 00:25:02 --> 00:25:09 | if it's obvious, then obviously, then you can. But as a rule of thumb, general |
| 249 | 00:25:09 --> 00:25:13 | rule of thumb, you want to submit to those first 30 minutes, because |
| 250 | 00:25:13 --> 00:25:18 | sometimes there's reports that come out at 945 Not today, not every day, but |
| 251 | 00:25:18 --> 00:25:25 | sometimes that occurs also the initial move right off the opening generally, is |
| 252 | 00:25:25 --> 00:25:31 | not the right one to be placing yourself in front of risk. So, meaning it could |
| 253 | 00:25:31 --> 00:25:34 | be a Judah swing, a fake a fake move. Okay, so we want to allow the |
| 254 | 00:25:34 --> 00:25:39 | marketplace to to draw in the gamblers they want to trade in near the first |
| 255 | 00:25:39 --> 00:25:44 | couple minutes of trading, okay? And you want to just relax, slow down and remind |
| 256 | 00:25:44 --> 00:25:49 | yourself that you have plenty of time, plenty of time you have the entire day |
| 257 | 00:25:49 --> 00:25:53 | to find these measly little five handles. And you don't want to rush just |
| 258 | 00:25:53 --> 00:25:56 | simply to get it out of the way, because that's also another thing that you |
| 259 | 00:25:56 --> 00:26:01 | you're going to feel like, you know you want to trade. You know you're also |
| 260 | 00:26:01 --> 00:26:06 | initially anxious about doing it incorrectly. So one of the things you're |
| 261 | 00:26:06 --> 00:26:11 | going to feel is, all right, I'm in front of the charts. I have my account, |
| 262 | 00:26:11 --> 00:26:16 | it's funded, or it's real, and I got to just get in here and get it out of the |
| 263 | 00:26:16 --> 00:26:20 | way so that way I can make my money and close the charts and just just be away |
| 264 | 00:26:20 --> 00:26:25 | from it. What you're doing is you're conditioning yourself to hate trading. I |
| 265 | 00:26:25 --> 00:26:29 | went through a phase like that after a few accounts that I've bloomed in the |
| 266 | 00:26:29 --> 00:26:35 | 90s. That feeling of I just want to get in there and get my money and run away. |
| 267 | 00:26:35 --> 00:26:40 | I was conditioning myself to be afraid of it, which is what made it almost |
| 268 | 00:26:40 --> 00:26:46 | impossible for me to grind through to a point of not being fearful. That's why I |
| 269 | 00:26:46 --> 00:26:52 | have so many execution models that lets me get into a trade. I have lots of |
| 270 | 00:26:52 --> 00:26:57 | opportunities to get into a trade that allows me to participate in a move. And |
| 271 | 00:26:57 --> 00:27:02 | the reason why I have so many weapons like that is because that was my of my |
| 272 | 00:27:02 --> 00:27:08 | strongest barriers. I was afraid to enter because I didn't trust the model |
| 273 | 00:27:08 --> 00:27:14 | that I was working with was a good one. I didn't have enough experience seeing |
| 274 | 00:27:14 --> 00:27:18 | it work. I was in a hurry, just because I saw a few of them work, and sometimes |
| 275 | 00:27:18 --> 00:27:21 | they didn't work, but I blocked that part out, and that's another thing you |
| 276 | 00:27:21 --> 00:27:26 | need to be aware of when you do these exercises and these drills. Don't block |
| 277 | 00:27:26 --> 00:27:32 | out the times you do it wrong. Don't do that. You want to make sure that you |
| 278 | 00:27:32 --> 00:27:36 | learn what you did incorrectly in those and don't try to put blinders on |
| 279 | 00:27:36 --> 00:27:40 | thinking, Okay, well, that didn't happen. No, you need to know what you're |
| 280 | 00:27:40 --> 00:27:43 | doing, because if you don't address the issues that you're doing incorrectly, |
| 281 | 00:27:43 --> 00:27:46 | they're going to repeat. And if you're doing it live funds, you know what's |
| 282 | 00:27:46 --> 00:27:50 | going to happen. Eventually it's going to wear down that equity or wear down |
| 283 | 00:27:50 --> 00:27:55 | your mental capital, and between both of them, you will blow your account. So |
| 284 | 00:27:55 --> 00:27:59 | preservation of capital is the first and foremost important role in speculation, |
| 285 | 00:27:59 --> 00:28:02 | whether you're doing it with paper trading demo or eventually in live |
| 286 | 00:28:02 --> 00:28:09 | funds. So right away again, we're submitting that first 30 minutes. |
| 287 | 00:28:15 --> 00:28:20 | Nothing's happened so far today, dollars firming up. It still hasn't get up. |
| 288 | 00:28:20 --> 00:28:25 | Gotten above that 103, 13 level, which is what I'm looking for. I want to see |
| 289 | 00:28:25 --> 00:28:30 | it get above that on dollar one, zero, 3.13 that's the level I referred to |
| 290 | 00:28:30 --> 00:28:36 | earlier. Here's some weakness. We're looking for that right there. Okay, now, |
| 291 | 00:28:37 --> 00:28:43 | right away, your eye should jump to these clean lows right there. You |
| 292 | 00:28:43 --> 00:28:50 | see that. See that right here. Now, what's resting below those lows? |
| 293 | 00:28:51 --> 00:28:56 | Sell side liquidity this low here. We had a displacement below it. We're |
| 294 | 00:28:56 --> 00:29:08 | trading back up into the imbalance here. And the risk would have to be wrong on |
| 295 | 00:29:08 --> 00:29:08 | that chart. |
| 296 | 00:29:15 --> 00:29:16 | 4022, |
| 297 | 00:29:23 --> 00:29:24 | 40, 25.75, |
| 298 | 00:29:29 --> 00:29:36 | okay, so do we offer an opportunity to see five handles in this area here to |
| 299 | 00:29:36 --> 00:29:38 | that level here? Yes. |
| 300 | 00:29:38 --> 00:29:44 | Yes, that's not bright |
| 301 | 00:29:59 --> 00:29:59 | enough i. |
| 302 | 00:30:19 --> 00:30:25 | So now what I'm doing is as I'm watching the ES here, I want to see it drop |
| 303 | 00:30:25 --> 00:30:31 | below, just to trade back inside this shaded area and also gravitate towards |
| 304 | 00:30:31 --> 00:30:35 | the sell side liquidity. And I'm watching the dollar index, there's a |
| 305 | 00:30:35 --> 00:30:38 | small little imbalance that it's trading on. Let me tell you the candle right |
| 306 | 00:30:38 --> 00:30:38 | now. |
| 307 | 00:30:38 --> 00:30:42 | If you look at the one minute chart, it is the 944, |
| 308 | 00:30:44 --> 00:30:49 | big green candle on the one minute chart I'm watching. Does it respect that? In |
| 309 | 00:30:49 --> 00:30:53 | other words, does it want to send dollar higher while I'm watching ES? I |
| 310 | 00:32:11 --> 00:32:15 | what we were doing is the initial drill is five for five. That means you're |
| 311 | 00:32:15 --> 00:32:19 | going to risk five handles to make five handles. I already know there's going to |
| 312 | 00:32:19 --> 00:32:22 | be individuals in here thinking, Oh, that doesn't make money. It makes money, |
| 313 | 00:32:23 --> 00:32:33 | but you don't need a high rate of multiples for you don't need a five to |
| 314 | 00:32:33 --> 00:32:37 | one or 10 to 121, are multiple to be profitable. If you have a strike rate |
| 315 | 00:32:37 --> 00:32:43 | that's pretty high, you can do one for one, but while you're training yourself, |
| 316 | 00:32:44 --> 00:32:47 | you don't need that, you can just do one for one, because you're conditioning |
| 317 | 00:32:47 --> 00:32:51 | yourself to get over that fear of missing or not missing the trading |
| 318 | 00:32:51 --> 00:32:55 | because you're afraid you're gonna miss a move or you're gonna take a loss, |
| 319 | 00:33:01 --> 00:33:11 | still watching that dollar. This in here is not as clean as I would like to have |
| 320 | 00:33:11 --> 00:33:14 | seen it. I would have rather had not seen that little move here. But I'm |
| 321 | 00:33:14 --> 00:33:20 | giving it an opportunity to see if I can see that run up on dollar on that small, |
| 322 | 00:33:20 --> 00:33:27 | little buy side, balance, sell sign, efficiency. And again, we're still in |
| 323 | 00:33:27 --> 00:33:31 | first in that first 30 minutes of trading. So this is all part of that. |
| 324 | 00:33:31 --> 00:33:35 | What are you looking for? ICT, what are you waiting for? What do you look to |
| 325 | 00:33:35 --> 00:33:39 | see? What do you want to find in price action? What is your focus? What don't |
| 326 | 00:33:39 --> 00:33:43 | you like? That's what I'm doing right here. This is how you mentor someone. |
| 327 | 00:33:43 --> 00:33:46 | It's just not blindly going in there and just taking a trade. Now, let's just |
| 328 | 00:33:46 --> 00:33:50 | say, for instance, let's play double advocate for a moment. Say it just |
| 329 | 00:33:50 --> 00:33:54 | starts to break lower, okay. Say it breaks lower. And I haven't gotten in |
| 330 | 00:33:54 --> 00:34:03 | yet. I can use the top of that shaded area and the midpoint of this wick here, |
| 331 | 00:34:03 --> 00:34:06 | which will be consequent encroachment. In other words, if it traded down here, |
| 332 | 00:34:06 --> 00:34:10 | but didn't trade below here yet, and trade back up into it, I don't have a |
| 333 | 00:34:10 --> 00:34:15 | problem with that taken as an entry. Now, you might not be comfortable with |
| 334 | 00:34:15 --> 00:34:18 | something like that. I'm not trying to convince you that that's the model for |
| 335 | 00:34:18 --> 00:34:22 | you. All. I'm saying is, how do you overcome fear of entry. That's the whole |
| 336 | 00:34:22 --> 00:34:29 | topic of the day. But I'm wanting to trade with an entry with a fair value |
| 337 | 00:34:29 --> 00:34:35 | gap. That's what I'm trying to force my focus on. That way, at some point it's |
| 338 | 00:34:35 --> 00:34:39 | going to give it to me. I just have to wait long enough for it to happen. It's |
| 339 | 00:34:39 --> 00:34:44 | going to happen every day there's one, but you don't have the patience, if |
| 340 | 00:34:44 --> 00:34:51 | you're new, to wait for it, and since we have nothing in here, did I go short? |
| 341 | 00:34:52 --> 00:34:56 | No. Why? Because there's no fair value. Guy, I wanted to see a small little |
| 342 | 00:34:56 --> 00:35:01 | portion of that down closed candle left open. Do? Then a new candle start, and |
| 343 | 00:35:01 --> 00:35:04 | then it trade up into that. Then I would have, I would have sold short rate |
| 344 | 00:35:04 --> 00:35:08 | there, targeting these lows. But if I don't have what I'm looking for in a |
| 345 | 00:35:08 --> 00:35:12 | chart, I'm not just going to think, well, you know, I got video games to |
| 346 | 00:35:12 --> 00:35:16 | play. I got to do something here, or my wife's going to be asking me to do |
| 347 | 00:35:16 --> 00:35:20 | something, and I won't be be in front of my charts. Not that she does that. But |
| 348 | 00:35:20 --> 00:35:24 | you know how it is in real world you get pulled away from doing this, and they're |
| 349 | 00:35:24 --> 00:35:26 | wonderful little distractions. |
| 350 | 00:35:27 --> 00:35:31 | So Dollar Index did not respect that fair value gap, which is what I was |
| 351 | 00:35:31 --> 00:35:34 | watching for. It went a little bit deeper than I wanted to see. But it does |
| 352 | 00:35:34 --> 00:35:39 | have a wick. If you look at the wick on the candle one minute chart for D, x, y, |
| 353 | 00:35:40 --> 00:35:47 | the 943, low that wick on the low end of the candle. We've just dropped down into |
| 354 | 00:35:47 --> 00:35:50 | that. So I'm trying to watch and see if we get some kind of respect there and go |
| 355 | 00:35:50 --> 00:35:56 | higher. But I don't like where we are with ES, so we might need to go one more |
| 356 | 00:35:56 --> 00:36:03 | time higher on ES. NASDAQ looks like it wants a flirt with a higher high also, |
| 357 | 00:36:03 --> 00:36:08 | so, but the Dow is just a dog right now. We pull up Dow real quick, since there's |
| 358 | 00:36:08 --> 00:36:14 | nothing here at the time for ES, my focus is primarily on that market. So |
| 359 | 00:36:14 --> 00:36:20 | that's the difference between the Dow on the one minute chart, lower, sloppier, |
| 360 | 00:36:21 --> 00:36:29 | and then on NASDAQ, we have that. So we have relative equal highs. It looks like |
| 361 | 00:36:29 --> 00:36:41 | we could run up in there and hit that. And yes, we have this. So we have |
| 362 | 00:36:41 --> 00:36:47 | relative equal highs here, small little gap here. So if we trade it down there |
| 363 | 00:36:47 --> 00:36:51 | to that to 23 to 28 that would be five handles, |
| 364 | 00:37:01 --> 00:37:05 | dollars is hanging around, still not confirming or denying anything. |
| 365 | 00:37:15 --> 00:37:22 | This is the part. This is the time that is excruciating for inexperienced |
| 366 | 00:37:22 --> 00:37:28 | traders, you feel like, okay, you showed up. You're here. ICT says, gonna push |
| 367 | 00:37:28 --> 00:37:31 | the button today, and you're ready. You're chomping at the bit. You can't |
| 368 | 00:37:31 --> 00:37:36 | wait. And that's exactly how it feels when you get in front of a chart. When |
| 369 | 00:37:36 --> 00:37:39 | you have live funds at your disposal, you want to do something, but then |
| 370 | 00:37:39 --> 00:37:44 | you're also, I'm scared, what if I do it wrong? Everything's a second guess, and |
| 371 | 00:37:44 --> 00:37:48 | you're in a hurry. You're just in a hurry to get in it, just to do |
| 372 | 00:37:48 --> 00:37:55 | something, and that's the trap. You have to still remember what you learned about |
| 373 | 00:37:55 --> 00:37:59 | trading in a demo. You have to remember those lessons. You have to go back on |
| 374 | 00:37:59 --> 00:38:03 | that experience, because if you don't refer to that or even have gained any of |
| 375 | 00:38:03 --> 00:38:06 | that experience, you're going to be impulsively just pressing the button, |
| 376 | 00:38:06 --> 00:38:10 | and there has to be something in the chart to do a entry on. You just can't |
| 377 | 00:38:10 --> 00:38:14 | just gamble and see what happens. We're saying that it can go up to that 4028, |
| 378 | 00:38:15 --> 00:38:19 | level. I'm not interested in taking that, but that's a move. I say it is. |
| 379 | 00:38:19 --> 00:38:20 | It's a move. It's |
| 380 | 00:38:25 --> 00:38:32 | I want to use a fair value gap today. That's That's my focus. I'm confident |
| 381 | 00:38:32 --> 00:38:36 | it'll form. I'm just trying to exercise discipline to show you what it's like to |
| 382 | 00:38:36 --> 00:38:41 | sit through all the other price action moves. I don't care who's making money |
| 383 | 00:38:41 --> 00:38:46 | on YouTube. I don't care how many people's posting things on Twitter. |
| 384 | 00:38:47 --> 00:38:50 | That's not my trade. That's not your trade. You can't go back in time and |
| 385 | 00:38:50 --> 00:38:54 | enter when they did, if it was even profitable at all. So you have to submit |
| 386 | 00:38:54 --> 00:38:56 | yourself to this process of learning |
| 387 | 00:38:58 --> 00:39:01 | to pop up through here and hit that 4020, level |
| 388 | 00:39:05 --> 00:39:12 | still very, very mixed, which is typical ahead of FOMC, so you have to be a lot |
| 389 | 00:39:12 --> 00:39:17 | more nimble on days like this, and also by lowering your expectations. So now |
| 390 | 00:39:17 --> 00:39:22 | think about what's actually occurring here. The markets gapped up at the open. |
| 391 | 00:39:23 --> 00:39:27 | We had a small little rally higher, and we've dropped, but we have dropped |
| 392 | 00:39:28 --> 00:39:32 | aggressively. There was no real energetic drop. See that the only thing |
| 393 | 00:39:32 --> 00:39:36 | we had here was this drop down here, and it quickly with the relationships of |
| 394 | 00:39:36 --> 00:39:43 | intermarket analysis with the dollar. It canceled out any short here, and if you |
| 395 | 00:39:43 --> 00:39:45 | missed it, you'll it'll be in the recording. Go back and listen to it. |
| 396 | 00:39:45 --> 00:39:49 | There's the pop, the 4028, so in my mind, I'm thinking, anyone that's |
| 397 | 00:39:49 --> 00:39:54 | already trying to sell short, the gap higher and the initial high that's being |
| 398 | 00:39:54 --> 00:40:00 | formed here, this run here kills them. So now I'm watching very i. Closely. How |
| 399 | 00:40:00 --> 00:40:05 | that dollar index go back to that original fair value gap. That means the |
| 400 | 00:40:05 --> 00:40:15 | one at the candle at 944, one minute Dollar Index. If we rally here because |
| 401 | 00:40:15 --> 00:40:18 | we cut through candles, we're not supplying demand. Cut through the |
| 402 | 00:40:18 --> 00:40:23 | candles. It's been formed over the last seven or eight of them go back to that |
| 403 | 00:40:23 --> 00:40:26 | fair value gap, the candle ring right now, basically, is already traded down |
| 404 | 00:40:26 --> 00:40:30 | into that low of that fair value gap. And I want to see, does it rally higher |
| 405 | 00:40:30 --> 00:40:36 | on dollar? And if that does this high here on es could be suspect, meaning |
| 406 | 00:40:36 --> 00:40:40 | that it's just a run on buy stops or anyone short. And then we could look to |
| 407 | 00:40:40 --> 00:40:45 | see it traded into that 420, or lower, but it has to do so in price. All we're |
| 408 | 00:40:45 --> 00:40:48 | doing is anticipating the likelihood of that right now. |
| 409 | 00:41:41 --> 00:41:45 | What I'm doing is on my attention is going through Euro dollar, and I'm |
| 410 | 00:41:45 --> 00:41:48 | telling you, like, what are you looking at Euro dollar for? I'm looking at Euro |
| 411 | 00:41:49 --> 00:41:55 | I'm looking at the POUND DOLLAR. I'm looking at the dollar index. I'm looking |
| 412 | 00:41:55 --> 00:42:02 | at the relationships of that triad and trying to get a measure for where risk |
| 413 | 00:42:02 --> 00:42:09 | is, is it risk going or risk off? And euro is just consolidating. It hasn't |
| 414 | 00:42:09 --> 00:42:15 | really done much at all since around 730 it's been in consolidation. Dollar, like |
| 415 | 00:42:15 --> 00:42:20 | I said, it's came off its lows at 103 and I'm still looking for that 103 13 to |
| 416 | 00:42:20 --> 00:42:30 | be broken to the upside and how we trade there hasn't gone below on Dollar Index. |
| 417 | 00:42:30 --> 00:42:40 | Hasn't gone lower than the low formed at 954, 954, is low, and now we have es |
| 418 | 00:42:40 --> 00:42:41 | coming back down |
| 419 | 00:42:42 --> 00:42:43 | below these highs here. |
| 420 | 00:42:50 --> 00:42:52 | Okay, dollars looking favorable now. |
| 421 | 00:42:57 --> 00:43:02 | So now what we're going to do is we're going to wait to see if this high stays |
| 422 | 00:43:02 --> 00:43:10 | in place. If we break lower and create a fair value gap in here, between where, |
| 423 | 00:43:12 --> 00:43:16 | between this low and the high that's formed. We're using that price leg |
| 424 | 00:43:16 --> 00:43:19 | there. So inside of this range, |
| 425 | 00:43:22 --> 00:43:29 | this is retraction. It's done. What is taken |
| 426 | 00:43:30 --> 00:43:36 | by side here with this rally up so inside of this price leg, we're |
| 427 | 00:43:36 --> 00:43:46 | anticipating now a fair value at the form, and if it can form, I'll use that |
| 428 | 00:43:46 --> 00:43:51 | one. Excuse me. I'll use that one to try to get a run for five handles. Now I |
| 429 | 00:43:59 --> 00:44:01 | don't want it to go too fast from here, |
| 430 | 00:44:09 --> 00:44:15 | Brett's like ICT is trying to trade it. Don't give it to him. Reprice it, lower, |
| 431 | 00:44:15 --> 00:44:18 | no, fair value gap. He's going to convince everybody today he's |
| 432 | 00:44:24 --> 00:44:26 | day, and I'll stay here long enough to do it. |
| 433 | 00:44:33 --> 00:44:38 | Okay, so you can see already, like if we were using turtle soup, turtle soup |
| 434 | 00:44:38 --> 00:44:43 | would be that run above and just going in there and shorting it because we have |
| 435 | 00:44:43 --> 00:44:48 | a diverse and suiting the Dow and NASDAQ and es making higher high style didn't |
| 436 | 00:44:48 --> 00:44:49 | do that, |
| 437 | 00:44:52 --> 00:44:53 | all right, so |
| 438 | 00:44:56 --> 00:45:00 | I want to see this candle here create the fair value gap right there. Don't |
| 439 | 00:45:00 --> 00:45:03 | want to see it go up and have an immediate rebalance. I just want to see |
| 440 | 00:45:03 --> 00:45:06 | it close this camel, open another one, then trade up into it, but not take out |
| 441 | 00:45:06 --> 00:45:10 | that low yet. I don't want to see that happen yet. It looks |
| 442 | 00:45:10 --> 00:45:17 | like it looks like it's run. Dollar index is nicely ran up into the level I |
| 443 | 00:45:17 --> 00:45:23 | would want to see beautiful, beautiful. And we do have a fair value gap here. |
| 444 | 00:45:29 --> 00:45:33 | So you can do one of two things here in your practice, you can set a limit order |
| 445 | 00:45:34 --> 00:45:40 | here at this high plus one tick, and then use a stop of five handles. And |
| 446 | 00:45:42 --> 00:45:45 | then you then use a take profit of five handles, or you |
| 447 | 00:45:48 --> 00:45:51 | can wait for it if it can trade up there. And that's like I said, I'm |
| 448 | 00:45:51 --> 00:45:56 | running the risk of not participating on this one because it's already running |
| 449 | 00:45:56 --> 00:46:05 | and not giving a return back to it, which is fine. But you didn't get in |
| 450 | 00:46:05 --> 00:46:09 | ICT. I know there's lots of moves that I don't participate in, just like you're |
| 451 | 00:46:09 --> 00:46:09 | going to discover. |
| 452 | 00:46:19 --> 00:46:25 | Now we have a breaker. Okay? So while I don't want to utilize this as my entry, |
| 453 | 00:46:25 --> 00:46:30 | I do want to bring it to your attention, because it's here now the breaker is |
| 454 | 00:46:30 --> 00:46:36 | where we have a high, a low and a higher high, where it has taken buy side, as I |
| 455 | 00:46:36 --> 00:46:41 | outlined, in real time, this buy side that's been taken our attention goes to |
| 456 | 00:46:41 --> 00:46:46 | the down move prior to the Second theory, higher high. So, in other words, |
| 457 | 00:46:46 --> 00:46:55 | in short, the low between the two highs. So where's the down close? In that, in |
| 458 | 00:46:55 --> 00:47:02 | that low here, these candles entirely, all that range, 123123, |
| 459 | 00:47:14 --> 00:47:22 | so inside this range, that is a bearish breaker. So let's just say it goes up |
| 460 | 00:47:22 --> 00:47:26 | into this fair value gap here. You can short it, but you have to incorporate |
| 461 | 00:47:26 --> 00:47:31 | this, because it can trade up into that as well. Because it's a it's a fair |
| 462 | 00:47:31 --> 00:47:38 | value gap within the breaker. So ideally, I'd really want it to trade up |
| 463 | 00:47:38 --> 00:47:46 | into here, but it may be asking too much of it. So I'm going to do a lower |
| 464 | 00:47:46 --> 00:47:50 | probability entry. If we can go right above this high here to see it one more |
| 465 | 00:47:50 --> 00:47:55 | time, pump into that once more I'll go short risk five handles and see if we |
| 466 | 00:47:55 --> 00:47:56 | can get five handle run. I'm |
| 467 | 00:48:09 --> 00:48:19 | the liquidity is obviously sitting right below 4014, 25, so, 401425, all this |
| 468 | 00:48:19 --> 00:48:25 | smooth lows here, their cell stops resting below that. So if Smart Money |
| 469 | 00:48:25 --> 00:48:30 | has sold short up here, collecting what the buy stops. So they sold to those buy |
| 470 | 00:48:30 --> 00:48:34 | stops with this run here. So where are they going to try to get out at ideally, |
| 471 | 00:48:34 --> 00:48:37 | market efficiency paradigm is they're going to buy from sellers at a lower |
| 472 | 00:48:37 --> 00:48:43 | price markets here, where are sellers at a lower price below these equal lows. |
| 473 | 00:48:56 --> 00:49:03 | I can enter here, but my five handles doesn't provide me enough shield, where |
| 474 | 00:49:03 --> 00:49:06 | we are in that range, with this fair value gap, which is also one of the |
| 475 | 00:49:06 --> 00:49:10 | things you have to contend with when you're trying to take entries just |
| 476 | 00:49:10 --> 00:49:14 | because you feel confident it's going to go to a specific level, you still have |
| 477 | 00:49:14 --> 00:49:19 | to consider the risk, and just because you might be right about where it's |
| 478 | 00:49:19 --> 00:49:23 | going, you can't chase it. You got to trade. You got to trade in a premium if |
| 479 | 00:49:23 --> 00:49:27 | you're going short, that means trading in a up close candle. It's one of the |
| 480 | 00:49:27 --> 00:49:31 | filters that, many times, is going to serve you better than you realize. Now, |
| 481 | 00:49:31 --> 00:49:37 | if you can sell short and up close candles and buy and down close candles, |
| 482 | 00:49:37 --> 00:49:41 | you're giving yourself an advantage that most traders don't realize when they're |
| 483 | 00:49:41 --> 00:49:42 | trying to do injuries do. |
| 484 | 00:50:17 --> 00:50:19 | Take it into this one immediately. That's what I'm watching, waiting for. |
| 485 | 00:50:28 --> 00:50:30 | I just pressed that button. |
| 486 | 00:50:33 --> 00:50:35 | Took forever to get it in there. I |
| 487 | 00:50:50 --> 00:50:54 | now you just submit to it. If it takes you out, that's fine. If it stops you |
| 488 | 00:50:54 --> 00:51:02 | out, it's fine. And you want to submit to the idea that how much time does it |
| 489 | 00:51:02 --> 00:51:09 | take once you enter the trade? How much time does it take for you to see it move |
| 490 | 00:51:09 --> 00:51:12 | in your favor? Or if it stops you out? How fast did it take you to stop out? Do |
| 491 | 00:51:49 --> 00:51:53 | Now, obviously I'm using a fair value gap entry, but I'm using the context of |
| 492 | 00:51:53 --> 00:52:00 | that breaker so it kind of like allows for more of the things I like to look |
| 493 | 00:52:00 --> 00:52:06 | for in price action, but framing it is, you know, being utilized with other |
| 494 | 00:52:06 --> 00:52:10 | tools, but hopefully you can least see that the reason why I'm entering is in |
| 495 | 00:52:10 --> 00:52:13 | that fair value gap right here. Okay, now |
| 496 | 00:52:21 --> 00:52:25 | there's a small little volume imbalance in here. I want to see it trade through |
| 497 | 00:52:25 --> 00:52:32 | that and not get back above it once it does go below it. Now you reduce the |
| 498 | 00:52:32 --> 00:52:37 | risk. Put it right above the breaker that way. If I'm stopped out, it's a |
| 499 | 00:52:37 --> 00:52:42 | small little loss. Now, all you're doing is studying price action, watching. Does |
| 500 | 00:52:42 --> 00:52:49 | it still continuously deliver wanting to get down into I have it sit through this |
| 501 | 00:52:49 --> 00:52:54 | lower here, but if I had more, let's go back to this idea where the sell side is |
| 502 | 00:52:54 --> 00:53:00 | okay, but when you're practicing, you want to have a five for five, five risk |
| 503 | 00:53:00 --> 00:53:08 | five, gain. I want to see it right here, stay heavy and go lower. That would be |
| 504 | 00:53:08 --> 00:53:12 | an immediate rebalance. In other words, kind of like a fair value gap, return |
| 505 | 00:53:12 --> 00:53:19 | and drops. I want to see es remain heavy. I want to see the dollar climb |
| 506 | 00:53:19 --> 00:53:22 | back up into 103 16 area. |
| 507 | 00:53:27 --> 00:53:31 | And also you want to indicate in your journal that you're trading ahead of |
| 508 | 00:53:31 --> 00:53:37 | FOMC. So you're in a market climate that is not conducive for high precision. |
| 509 | 00:53:37 --> 00:53:43 | It's not conducive for low resistance, liquidity run means the easy salad days |
| 510 | 00:53:43 --> 00:53:47 | type trading that that's not, that's not where we're at. But you want to practice |
| 511 | 00:53:47 --> 00:53:50 | in these conditions, because by practicing in these conditions, you're |
| 512 | 00:53:50 --> 00:53:56 | preparing yourself, really, for the best. When the market's more free to |
| 513 | 00:53:56 --> 00:54:01 | move, in other words, when it's easier to see it rally or or drop into levels |
| 514 | 00:54:01 --> 00:54:04 | that you expected when it's this real sudden movement, all one favor, just |
| 515 | 00:54:04 --> 00:54:09 | digging into it, that's the type of trades I teach my students to look for. |
| 516 | 00:54:09 --> 00:54:14 | I look for that as a signature in the marketplace, versus just simply, well, |
| 517 | 00:54:14 --> 00:54:17 | the markets are moving the day, the markets are trading. So therefore, let |
| 518 | 00:54:17 --> 00:54:25 | me just go out here and try to make money. That, to me, is not enough. My |
| 519 | 00:54:25 --> 00:54:29 | eyes watching how we traded that low, I want to see it trade to that low and |
| 520 | 00:54:29 --> 00:54:33 | expand quickly to get these sell stops. That's what I'm looking for. |
| 521 | 00:54:39 --> 00:54:43 | Just a little bit of a movement up $1 so far. I want to see it really get |
| 522 | 00:54:43 --> 00:54:46 | aggressive and dig into that 103 16 and higher. I. |
| 523 | 00:55:08 --> 00:55:12 | Now you want to remove the risk because you've gone into new sell side, if it |
| 524 | 00:55:12 --> 00:55:15 | stops you out at this point, who cares? But because we went to this low here, |
| 525 | 00:55:16 --> 00:55:20 | the market can go back and revisit premium arrays and still not go to that |
| 526 | 00:55:20 --> 00:55:26 | sell side, which is the reason why I've removed the risk, and now you just |
| 527 | 00:55:26 --> 00:55:30 | submit to either one. Either it stops you, which you're fine with, it'll be |
| 528 | 00:55:30 --> 00:55:35 | stopped in profit and it would be a favorable outcome for the exercise, or |
| 529 | 00:55:35 --> 00:55:39 | it goes to your limit order and it closes your case study out, and you log |
| 530 | 00:55:39 --> 00:55:43 | it and you record immediately. You don't go to social media and parade around, or |
| 531 | 00:55:43 --> 00:55:46 | if you get stopped out, you don't go to social media and complain about it. You |
| 532 | 00:55:46 --> 00:55:53 | go right to your journal. You journal your entry suggesting what all the |
| 533 | 00:55:53 --> 00:55:58 | things positively that you did in the trade, the observations. Now you saw it |
| 534 | 00:55:58 --> 00:56:02 | trade down there, but it didn't take the limit order and it was way significantly |
| 535 | 00:56:02 --> 00:56:06 | enough to blow it. They could have done it. There you go. So there you go. Ice |
| 536 | 00:56:06 --> 00:56:09 | T's never going to do a live trade. He's never going to call the market. He's |
| 537 | 00:56:09 --> 00:56:13 | never going to explain it. But yet, here I am doing it. How about that? It's |
| 538 | 00:56:13 --> 00:56:19 | almost like it's pre recorded. Hindsight. Is that precise enough for |
| 539 | 00:56:19 --> 00:56:26 | you? So what you want to do is you want to go through how much time, how much |
| 540 | 00:56:26 --> 00:56:29 | time did it take for that trade to deliver? Obviously, I did a little bit |
| 541 | 00:56:29 --> 00:56:33 | more than five handles, but, you know, I have to work with what the market's |
| 542 | 00:56:33 --> 00:56:37 | going to give me, right folks. So right away you should be thinking, and your |
| 543 | 00:56:37 --> 00:56:40 | corners your mouth should be aching because you watched all this happened, |
| 544 | 00:56:40 --> 00:56:44 | and you can't believe it, I know, but this stuff happens every single day. |
| 545 | 00:56:45 --> 00:56:48 | It's been happening for the last 30 years. For me, it's been happening |
| 546 | 00:56:48 --> 00:56:54 | before I was born. Okay? These markets are absolutely rigged. Okay? They're |
| 547 | 00:56:54 --> 00:56:59 | absolutely rigged. There's no randomness to it. The only thing that is going to |
| 548 | 00:56:59 --> 00:57:03 | be random is your emotional impulses. When you're not equipped to know how to |
| 549 | 00:57:03 --> 00:57:08 | trade, if you don't know what you're looking for, you're going to lose. If |
| 550 | 00:57:08 --> 00:57:13 | you know a model that you know what you're looking for, then you can aim for |
| 551 | 00:57:13 --> 00:57:22 | that, and you can measure your progress. But you're not okay. You're not going to |
| 552 | 00:57:22 --> 00:57:26 | hit the target, unless you have a target, what's the target? Consistency? |
| 553 | 00:57:26 --> 00:57:31 | You're looking for something that repeats over and over again that's |
| 554 | 00:57:31 --> 00:57:35 | highly precise. I want you to take a step back for a moment, okay? And folks |
| 555 | 00:57:35 --> 00:57:39 | understand this is not bragging, because 10 handles is 10 handles. It's not that |
| 556 | 00:57:39 --> 00:57:44 | big of a deal, okay, but you can make a mountain of a career doing that. But I |
| 557 | 00:57:44 --> 00:57:47 | want you to take a look at what this chart looks like right here, right now, |
| 558 | 00:57:47 --> 00:57:54 | and I want you to go back and listen to the recording. There was absolutely zero |
| 559 | 00:57:54 --> 00:58:03 | anxiety. There was zero emotion. I was not hopped up on goofballs. I wasn't |
| 560 | 00:58:03 --> 00:58:07 | worrying about the trade panning out. I gave you exactly what I was thinking |
| 561 | 00:58:07 --> 00:58:12 | because of 30 years experience doing it, I'm lending my experience and what I'm |
| 562 | 00:58:12 --> 00:58:16 | thinking while I'm watching price. I told you the very things I was looking |
| 563 | 00:58:16 --> 00:58:24 | at, why I was considering it. I told you about the breaker. I told you how to |
| 564 | 00:58:24 --> 00:58:30 | frame the breaker, where it should stop. Did it stop at the high of the breaker, |
| 565 | 00:58:31 --> 00:58:40 | to the tick, baby, to the tick. This up close candle, this up close candle, and |
| 566 | 00:58:40 --> 00:58:43 | that up close candle that's all my breaker, |
| 567 | 00:58:46 --> 00:58:50 | that look at this price right here, okay, up here in upper left hand corner, |
| 568 | 00:58:50 --> 00:58:51 | you see |
| 569 | 00:58:54 --> 00:59:04 | that right there, that high is 402, 5.75 the high of this candle comes in at |
| 570 | 00:59:04 --> 00:59:12 | 4026, even. So it went one tick, one tick, which is a mohawk. Remember price |
| 571 | 00:59:12 --> 00:59:19 | has to go up one tick to allow delivery of perfect old high. Think about if you |
| 572 | 00:59:19 --> 00:59:25 | had a limit order. It has to move. The difference between the bid and ask is |
| 573 | 00:59:25 --> 00:59:30 | one tick, so it has to do what it has to at least go up there to offer the |
| 574 | 00:59:30 --> 00:59:36 | opportunity for that high to be booked. But that framework, think about the |
| 575 | 00:59:36 --> 00:59:40 | questions that many of you have asked and you probably are listening and now |
| 576 | 00:59:40 --> 00:59:45 | had the answer given to you. How do you know ICT, how do you know that when it |
| 577 | 00:59:45 --> 00:59:50 | was rallying like that, how do you know that it won't go above that high there? |
| 578 | 00:59:50 --> 00:59:54 | Think about what I went through this morning with you. Okay, I opened up the |
| 579 | 00:59:54 --> 00:59:58 | chart. I showed you this shaded area down here. Okay, we'll go back into that |
| 580 | 00:59:58 --> 01:00:03 | regular trading hours. There. So the difference between yesterday's closing |
| 581 | 01:00:03 --> 01:00:09 | price and regular trading session to where we opened today at 930 that |
| 582 | 01:00:09 --> 01:00:13 | separation, that distinction between those two price points, is important. |
| 583 | 01:00:14 --> 01:00:21 | That's the opening range gap. So if we open to a premium, it opens like it does |
| 584 | 01:00:21 --> 01:00:26 | here. It rallies, comes back down rallies once more, perfect, perfect. |
| 585 | 01:00:26 --> 01:00:30 | We're watching now to see that fail. Go back and listen to my commentary. I'm |
| 586 | 01:00:30 --> 01:00:33 | not concerned it's going to keep rallying higher, because it's already |
| 587 | 01:00:33 --> 01:00:40 | done. Enough of that overnight. This is a trap. This down here allows them to do |
| 588 | 01:00:40 --> 01:00:49 | what chase it longs can say, Okay, I missed the initial run up here. Bears go |
| 589 | 01:00:49 --> 01:00:53 | short. Here, they put their stop loss rate above this high. The market drops |
| 590 | 01:00:53 --> 01:00:57 | down into the opening range, gap high, and then rallies. Go back and listen to |
| 591 | 01:00:57 --> 01:01:01 | my commentary. I did not take the short that I was interested in if it would |
| 592 | 01:01:01 --> 01:01:03 | have kept that candle with a fair amount. Candle with a fair value gap, I |
| 593 | 01:01:03 --> 01:01:07 | would have shorted that then. But because I was using the dollar index to |
| 594 | 01:01:07 --> 01:01:13 | filter, it kept me from doing what getting in prematurely. Plus the |
| 595 | 01:01:13 --> 01:01:18 | structure really wasn't all that. It was just not, it was not there yet. So I |
| 596 | 01:01:18 --> 01:01:20 | mentioned that how looking at the other markets, I said, Okay, it looks like |
| 597 | 01:01:20 --> 01:01:23 | NASDAQ is looking like it wants to make a higher wants to make a higher high. |
| 598 | 01:01:23 --> 01:01:28 | Let's take a look at NASDAQ real quick. I hope you guys can see this is not just |
| 599 | 01:01:28 --> 01:01:32 | random, made up stuff. It's a logic behind all this. So there's those |
| 600 | 01:01:32 --> 01:01:35 | relative equal highs. I said we would like to run up above that. It did that. |
| 601 | 01:01:36 --> 01:01:44 | Look at the Dow. See that divergence there. That's why I was trusting that we |
| 602 | 01:01:44 --> 01:01:48 | were not going to go higher. And that was absolutely a good breaker. Yes, so |
| 603 | 01:01:48 --> 01:01:52 | let's go back to ES. I'm answering all your questions. If you just listen to |
| 604 | 01:01:52 --> 01:01:55 | the boring stuff, folks, it's there. There's a lot of people. I started |
| 605 | 01:01:55 --> 01:01:58 | watching this video and said he's talking too much, and missed the entire |
| 606 | 01:01:58 --> 01:02:04 | move. But this down closed candle, these series of three down closed candles, is |
| 607 | 01:02:04 --> 01:02:10 | the context behind that run up here that stops out anyone that was going short |
| 608 | 01:02:10 --> 01:02:14 | here because they want to do what they want to fade to get right. Okay, the |
| 609 | 01:02:14 --> 01:02:19 | algorithm knows that is going to come down, rally through it all the buy stops |
| 610 | 01:02:19 --> 01:02:23 | are gone. Why is that useful? Just like I mentioned to you, Smart Money will |
| 611 | 01:02:23 --> 01:02:27 | sell short to those buy stops. They're going to sell to those buyers at a |
| 612 | 01:02:27 --> 01:02:30 | higher price. Smart Money is accumulating. |
| 613 | 01:02:38 --> 01:02:42 | Oh my goodness. We're getting Sleepless in Allen, Texas tonight, so we're |
| 614 | 01:02:42 --> 01:02:44 | looking at this area here, |
| 615 | 01:02:49 --> 01:02:54 | up in that area, all here, that's where smart money is going short. Okay, so |
| 616 | 01:02:54 --> 01:02:59 | they're selling short there with the expectation that they want to do what, |
| 617 | 01:02:59 --> 01:03:04 | buy it back at a cheaper price, but who would be willing to sell it to them at a |
| 618 | 01:03:04 --> 01:03:08 | cheaper price? Think about who would who would be willing to do that? Anyone |
| 619 | 01:03:08 --> 01:03:12 | that's long here or went long on here. It's idea that this is support where |
| 620 | 01:03:12 --> 01:03:18 | they're going to place their stop loss, where they just got wrecked. So when |
| 621 | 01:03:18 --> 01:03:27 | smart money's considering entering a short the market efficiency paradigm |
| 622 | 01:03:27 --> 01:03:31 | that I'm teaching you, the way they engage price. They're not looking at |
| 623 | 01:03:31 --> 01:03:36 | patterns. They're looking at who they can take to the slaughterhouse. They |
| 624 | 01:03:36 --> 01:03:42 | killed the people that were short when it ran above it. They're done. They're |
| 625 | 01:03:42 --> 01:03:48 | stopped out with a loss. Anyone that was short here gets stopped out. Anyone that |
| 626 | 01:03:48 --> 01:03:52 | went long down here, oh, it's gap and go dead. No, it's not. Listen to what ICT |
| 627 | 01:03:52 --> 01:03:55 | said. We're going to rally up, take a new high, and then we're going to watch |
| 628 | 01:03:55 --> 01:04:00 | and see, does it peter out? And it did. The market goes back down and takes out |
| 629 | 01:04:00 --> 01:04:04 | the longs. So who's who's really right? Who I told you was going to be right? |
| 630 | 01:04:04 --> 01:04:12 | The smart money selling here, and they're going to be buying down here. So |
| 631 | 01:04:12 --> 01:04:20 | when I'm looking at price, I'm looking at this to that, shorting, buying it |
| 632 | 01:04:20 --> 01:04:24 | back. But because I told you I was going to limit myself just using a fair value |
| 633 | 01:04:24 --> 01:04:28 | gap as my entry, I have lots of tools I could have very easily sold short up |
| 634 | 01:04:28 --> 01:04:32 | here, broke my rules just for ego purposes, and I wrote it down here. |
| 635 | 01:04:32 --> 01:04:35 | That's that would not have been what I went into this teaching for. I want to |
| 636 | 01:04:35 --> 01:04:38 | teach you how to do what look for your model. So if your model is the 2022, |
| 637 | 01:04:39 --> 01:04:45 | model, you just watch me do it. You literally just watch me do it. The |
| 638 | 01:04:45 --> 01:04:50 | context is selling at a premium. If you can't get that price and you're |
| 639 | 01:04:50 --> 01:04:54 | submitting yourself to what like I taught in the 2022, model, wait for this |
| 640 | 01:04:54 --> 01:04:59 | placement. This is the shift in market structure. Right below that low. Then. |
| 641 | 01:05:00 --> 01:05:03 | We have two fair value gaps. You can sell short in here, but you got to |
| 642 | 01:05:03 --> 01:05:06 | incorporate this fair value gap too. Why? Because it's inside the breaker, |
| 643 | 01:05:06 --> 01:05:11 | which is what I outlined here. The market does what it rallies up. I am not |
| 644 | 01:05:11 --> 01:05:15 | concerned about it making a higher high, because we already have at that high |
| 645 | 01:05:16 --> 01:05:21 | versus this high. The Dow has made a lower high. That's SMT, that's tipping |
| 646 | 01:05:21 --> 01:05:28 | its hand. The algorithm is showing its cracking correlation. It's telling you, |
| 647 | 01:05:28 --> 01:05:33 | much like I was telling you, that this rally is a suspect rally, meaning it's |
| 648 | 01:05:33 --> 01:05:37 | only going up to take the stops out for anyone that's short. Don't believe me. |
| 649 | 01:05:37 --> 01:05:42 | Go back and listen to the recording. It'll be there, but I'm not concerned |
| 650 | 01:05:42 --> 01:05:45 | about it going above that high, because I know that the algorithm is going to |
| 651 | 01:05:45 --> 01:05:51 | refer back to that candles high, because the context that books price in this |
| 652 | 01:05:51 --> 01:05:55 | algorithm repeats. It's not random. It's not milling, it's, it's, it's not |
| 653 | 01:05:56 --> 01:06:01 | milling through a whole different range of ideas and retail things. It's not |
| 654 | 01:06:01 --> 01:06:08 | looking for what retail logic is it going to use today? It's going where |
| 655 | 01:06:08 --> 01:06:12 | orders would be resting. It's going where inefficiencies are. That's the |
| 656 | 01:06:12 --> 01:06:19 | only thing it does, folks, that's it. Or it does this sideways. It's going up for |
| 657 | 01:06:19 --> 01:06:22 | buy side. Or it's going up to go into a premium fair value, yet some kind of |
| 658 | 01:06:22 --> 01:06:28 | inefficiency, or it's dropping to old lows where there's sell side, or it's |
| 659 | 01:06:28 --> 01:06:33 | dropping down to some discount inefficiency. Now look at it through the |
| 660 | 01:06:33 --> 01:06:39 | lens of the 2022, model. For a second, we see a high. The market rallies up. |
| 661 | 01:06:39 --> 01:06:46 | Did I use any other time frame? No, I traded right off of this time frame here |
| 662 | 01:06:46 --> 01:06:53 | using the tools that I've already taught you in 2022, so if this market's going |
| 663 | 01:06:53 --> 01:06:59 | up, and you're new and you're afraid, I'm afraid to trade. ICT, how do I get |
| 664 | 01:06:59 --> 01:07:03 | over the fear of that? Follow the rules. The rules say, wait for it to go lower |
| 665 | 01:07:03 --> 01:07:08 | where it's got to go below a short term swing low it does. So here trades below |
| 666 | 01:07:08 --> 01:07:16 | it go through. Does it have a fair value gap? Remember the range I told you, from |
| 667 | 01:07:16 --> 01:07:19 | here to here? Let's go back up through that I'm |
| 668 | 01:07:24 --> 01:07:30 | in that range, all of this is protraction. So in that range, when it |
| 669 | 01:07:30 --> 01:07:34 | starts to drop back down, we're going to be anticipating what forming a fair |
| 670 | 01:07:34 --> 01:07:41 | value gap. There was two of them here. And here the rules I gave you in a 2022, |
| 671 | 01:07:41 --> 01:07:47 | model last year was, if you have two fair value gaps, you have to at least |
| 672 | 01:07:47 --> 01:07:51 | allow for price to trade up into that second one, because it can, but more |
| 673 | 01:07:51 --> 01:07:59 | specifically, because we have that breaker there, because the breaker is a |
| 674 | 01:07:59 --> 01:08:05 | factor here, we have to at least make an allowance for I'm the wrong candle. |
| 675 | 01:08:05 --> 01:08:11 | Sorry. You have to make an allowance for it trading up to the high of that so I'm |
| 676 | 01:08:11 --> 01:08:16 | not concerned if it goes to that candles high in one tick or two. I'm not |
| 677 | 01:08:16 --> 01:08:20 | concerned about that. I'm not freaking out that it's going to go above that |
| 678 | 01:08:20 --> 01:08:25 | high, because if it did that, that's fine. That means I'm going to go bullish |
| 679 | 01:08:25 --> 01:08:28 | now, because it would erase and cancel the SMT divergence between the Dow and |
| 680 | 01:08:29 --> 01:08:35 | its lower high when the NASDAQ and ES, like we show here, made higher highs. So |
| 681 | 01:08:35 --> 01:08:39 | it would be a stop out on one trade, but it would give me insight into being a |
| 682 | 01:08:39 --> 01:08:45 | net long trader the rest of the day because it should not have failed. See |
| 683 | 01:08:45 --> 01:08:50 | the difference between fearing being stopped out and allowing. If it does, |
| 684 | 01:08:50 --> 01:08:54 | then I'll change my bias. That's experience. That's someone that has been |
| 685 | 01:08:54 --> 01:08:59 | here before, and I'm not reacting to price. Did anything that I outlined this |
| 686 | 01:08:59 --> 01:09:04 | morning seem or indicate to you that I was reacting to anything? No, I |
| 687 | 01:09:04 --> 01:09:07 | literally outlined everything you see in your charts here. |
| 688 | 01:09:09 --> 01:09:12 | This is where the price was going to drive gravitate to. It was going to make |
| 689 | 01:09:12 --> 01:09:13 | a higher high |
| 690 | 01:09:14 --> 01:09:20 | the model for 2022 if you take the low up, well, let's just do it. There's the |
| 691 | 01:09:20 --> 01:09:27 | low up to the high right there. Here's the 50% level. That's equilibrium. So we |
| 692 | 01:09:27 --> 01:09:30 | have to find something as a discount below that level. Well, we have these |
| 693 | 01:09:30 --> 01:09:35 | lows, this low, and then these relative equal lows here, which one's more likely |
| 694 | 01:09:35 --> 01:09:39 | to have the bigger pool of liquidity below? Obviously, this one here, and |
| 695 | 01:09:39 --> 01:09:45 | it's nicely below the 50% level. So we're in a discount. And we smashed all |
| 696 | 01:09:45 --> 01:09:52 | the way down into it 10 handles I like to over deliver. I told you I'd give you |
| 697 | 01:09:52 --> 01:09:58 | five. Give you 10, but you could have very easily if it was your exercise, |
| 698 | 01:09:59 --> 01:10:04 | once it. Out to five handles, collapse it and then watch it the rest of the |
| 699 | 01:10:04 --> 01:10:08 | time, using the logic that, if you were still in it, how would you be feeling |
| 700 | 01:10:08 --> 01:10:13 | each time it creates a new candle lower or higher against you? This move right |
| 701 | 01:10:13 --> 01:10:18 | there. That's my classic teaching of the breaker. This is what you're all |
| 702 | 01:10:18 --> 01:10:23 | familiar with. But like I said, just because you watch those introductory |
| 703 | 01:10:23 --> 01:10:27 | lessons, those core content lessons, that's not mentorship, that's the |
| 704 | 01:10:27 --> 01:10:32 | language. My students have to know those things before they can really learn how |
| 705 | 01:10:32 --> 01:10:37 | to use the things. I'm not upset about those core content lessons being shared |
| 706 | 01:10:37 --> 01:10:42 | around. It was intended for it to happen. That's viral advertising. It was |
| 707 | 01:10:42 --> 01:10:47 | seeds in the minds of everybody that got their hands on it. And I don't feel bad |
| 708 | 01:10:47 --> 01:10:52 | about putting on my YouTube channel and my students that are mature, that are |
| 709 | 01:10:52 --> 01:10:55 | able to do these things now, they don't care that those videos are up there, |
| 710 | 01:10:56 --> 01:10:59 | because they know that there was 1000s of videos outside of those. That's where |
| 711 | 01:10:59 --> 01:11:03 | the real mentorship was. And they're not going to help you, because they're old, |
| 712 | 01:11:04 --> 01:11:09 | like you. Just watch this one here. You watched it pan out real time, exactly, |
| 713 | 01:11:10 --> 01:11:16 | exactly how I teach. There was nothing contrived here, nothing random. And it |
| 714 | 01:11:16 --> 01:11:19 | should bolster your confidence that what you're learning and who you're learning |
| 715 | 01:11:19 --> 01:11:29 | from can do it precisely, accurately, with no emotion, no pomp, no ego, no |
| 716 | 01:11:29 --> 01:11:34 | bragging. It's just the facts. This stuff works. This is the market. It is |
| 717 | 01:11:34 --> 01:11:39 | the market, folks. It's not pattern stuff. It's not indicator stuff. All I |
| 718 | 01:11:39 --> 01:11:45 | drew on this chart was the logic to help you see it like I see it, because the |
| 719 | 01:11:45 --> 01:11:49 | entities that I dub and refer to, commonly as smart money, that's not the |
| 720 | 01:11:49 --> 01:11:55 | same people you think it is. It's not a market maker. Market making is |
| 721 | 01:11:55 --> 01:12:02 | algorithmic. Now there's no person that's a market maker. You may hear them |
| 722 | 01:12:02 --> 01:12:08 | be referred to as a market maker, but they are a dealer. That's all they are. |
| 723 | 01:12:08 --> 01:12:11 | They're not making the market. They're not controlling price, they're not |
| 724 | 01:12:11 --> 01:12:15 | sending price to a specific level like this algorithm is now my question to you |
| 725 | 01:12:15 --> 01:12:19 | is, is, how on earth, if there isn't an algorithm, how can it be that I can see |
| 726 | 01:12:19 --> 01:12:23 | these things so precisely before the fact, and explain it to you before it |
| 727 | 01:12:23 --> 01:12:27 | happens, and your real time chart paints it just like I'm showing you. Mine is |
| 728 | 01:12:28 --> 01:12:33 | because there is an algorithm, and I'm sorry if that upsets your entire |
| 729 | 01:12:33 --> 01:12:39 | paradigm, if that conflicts with your teachings, your mentorships, your logic, |
| 730 | 01:12:39 --> 01:12:45 | your book sales, I'm sorry. I'm not meant to, you know, upset you. I'm here |
| 731 | 01:12:45 --> 01:12:50 | to open your eyes to what's really going on. And I can do this every day, and |
| 732 | 01:12:50 --> 01:12:54 | damn it, I'm ready to do it in court. I can do it, baby, let me do it, because |
| 733 | 01:12:54 --> 01:12:55 | I'm going to smoke |
| 734 | 01:12:55 --> 01:13:00 | your ass. Please, pretty please, wish it your own time. Yeah, hope |
| 735 | 01:13:03 --> 01:13:05 | you found it so insightful today, folks, |
| 736 | 01:13:06 --> 01:13:09 | until next time, be safe. |