ICT YT - 2023-03-21 - Live Tape Reading - Conquering Your Fear Of Entries.srt
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-03-23 04:47
Outline
02:33 - Today’s Topic: Pushing The Button.
06:10 - This is not a signal service -.
11:18 - Can we see a five-handle price run from wherever we are now?
15:54 - This is about teaching you how to overcome fear.
23:10 - What’s going on in the markets today.
27:47 - What is the risk to your account?
30:18 - How do you overcome fear of entry?
37:01 - When you get in front of a chart, you’re chomping at the bit but you’re also scared.
42:04 - Dow has been consolidating since around 730.
46:45 - What’s the down close in that range?
Transcript
| 1 | 00:02:33,030 --> 00:02:47,970 | ICT: Good morning, folks. Good morning. guys give me a heads up on Twitter if the oil or the audio volume is okay. And if you could see the ES chart |
| 2 | 00:02:59,850 --> 00:03:06,540 | Thank you Leon the volume good. |
| 3 | 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:18,780 | Not that I can do anything better than I'm doing now. My microphones volume is all the way up. I'm literally within kissing distance. So that's where we're at |
| 4 | 00:03:18,780 --> 00:03:25,050 | with this, okay? All right, just bear with me one second, okay. |
| 5 | 00:03:36,810 --> 00:03:51,720 | All right. So today, we embark on a topic that many of you have been chomping at the bit to get to, which is pushing the button. So obviously, tomorrow we have |
| 6 | 00:03:51,720 --> 00:04:03,210 | FOMC. So that creates the likelihood of a rather slow trading session. A lot of folks just waiting to see what the Fed will be doing tomorrow. Everyone's making |
| 7 | 00:04:03,210 --> 00:04:16,080 | their bets as to what to expect what not to expect? I don't know. Okay, so I'm not I don't ever try to go in to the market and try to forecast the actions of |
| 8 | 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:29,910 | the Fed. So I think anyone that tries to do that is just fooling themselves or at least attempting to fool themselves. So while we're waiting for the morning |
| 9 | 00:04:29,910 --> 00:04:41,640 | sessions opening range to complete, which is typically 930 to 10 o'clock, we keep a relaxed view on the marketplace. I'm not trying to go in with any kind of |
| 10 | 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:52,800 | hardline bias yet I want to let the market itself tell me what to look for. And all we're looking for this morning is a smaller opportunity to get what I teach |
| 11 | 00:04:52,800 --> 00:05:04,830 | is a low threshold objective, which is five handles in the ES. So while obvious later in the year, you'll see me do larger polls, or we're doing 2030 4050 |
| 12 | 00:05:04,830 --> 00:05:15,960 | handle runs. There'll be days for that. Today's not one of them. So I kind of like want to beat on the drum of how I teach all of my students to start with, |
| 13 | 00:05:15,990 --> 00:05:25,590 | which is a really low hanging fruit objective. I believe that anyone that goes into this, with that mindset in terms of studying like that, not trying to get |
| 14 | 00:05:25,590 --> 00:05:34,710 | rich overnight, not trying to get rich, and at all really just trying to carve out an opportunity that repeats over and over again, that you like that you can |
| 15 | 00:05:34,710 --> 00:05:47,430 | find comfort in seeing, being patient looking for it, allowing the market to present as many advantageous signatures in our favor, that would warrant a price |
| 16 | 00:05:47,430 --> 00:05:59,220 | move. That is, at least by definition, the way I define it, high probability. So I'm willing to submit to a longer time than I normally am this morning, usually |
| 17 | 00:05:59,220 --> 00:06:11,190 | I do about an hour or so. And then I cut bait or whatever, I'm going to try to stay with you this morning, until we get an opportunity to fit my criteria. So |
| 18 | 00:06:11,190 --> 00:06:21,420 | I'll kind of give you the the nuts and bolts as to why I believe it should do what I expected to do. I want to preface it by saying and most of you already |
| 19 | 00:06:21,420 --> 00:06:25,560 | know this has been with me for a long time. This is not a signal service. Okay. |
| 20 | 00:06:26,340 --> 00:06:28,290 | Let me remind you what the |
| 21 | 00:06:29,280 --> 00:06:30,780 | the disclaimer here as I talk. |
| 22 | 00:06:40,410 --> 00:06:52,230 | That disclaimer will be popping up a few times during this presentation today. It is not an invitation for you to copy. It is not an invitation for you to try |
| 23 | 00:06:52,230 --> 00:07:02,640 | to fix your drawdown, it's not an invitation for you to get your last little piece of your funded account. Challenge past, okay, I'm going to give you |
| 24 | 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:15,150 | certain exercises today. And I'm also going to tell you where I believe it's going to go. I'm going to inspire you to use your demo. Okay, I don't I don't |
| 25 | 00:07:15,150 --> 00:07:26,370 | want you to use your Live account. If you're trading with anything I say today, you're absolutely doing it wrong. And you're going to regret it. Okay, so what |
| 26 | 00:07:26,370 --> 00:07:36,690 | we're doing is I'm teaching my son, who is embarking on a funded account challenge. And I won't name the company here because I don't want to represent |
| 27 | 00:07:36,690 --> 00:07:45,090 | anybody. And I'm not suggesting that they're good or bad. I'm just saying that he's making an attempt to do so. That's where he wants to go with it. He doesn't |
| 28 | 00:07:45,090 --> 00:07:54,780 | want me to give him money to do it, which is great. But he's concerned as a new student of the markets, and he is absolutely green. He doesn't know how to do |
| 29 | 00:07:54,780 --> 00:08:06,270 | much of anything. So his concern is, He's fearful of getting in. And that was one of the initial things I had in the 90s. When I first started trading |
| 30 | 00:08:06,270 --> 00:08:17,790 | commodities. I was fearful. I didn't know really what I was looking for. And it was manifesting itself in my anxiety about when and what market I should be |
| 31 | 00:08:17,790 --> 00:08:29,280 | trading, what timeframe should I be trading? If you're new to all of this market stuff and even ICT content? It can be a little bit bewildering. Like what |
| 32 | 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:38,220 | timeframe should I use? What market should I trade? You know, what setup what's the, what's the thing I'm looking for. And the reason why I teach the way I do |
| 33 | 00:08:38,250 --> 00:08:51,060 | is I present lots of different approaches to skinning that cat, but it allows you to bring in your own personality. Now today, unfortunately, I'm going to try |
| 34 | 00:08:51,060 --> 00:09:07,350 | to force one particular approach to getting in. And I'm going to try to utilize a fair value gap, which is predominantly the most visually easy thing to find in |
| 35 | 00:09:07,350 --> 00:09:17,910 | a price chart. Much like looking at equal lows that we target for sell side liquidity, that's where we think that the market is likely to draw too much like |
| 36 | 00:09:18,090 --> 00:09:29,820 | we expect equal highs to be a draw for buy side liquidity. Those types of things are pretty generic. And they're they're not hiding from you. In fact, it's next |
| 37 | 00:09:29,820 --> 00:09:45,960 | to impossible to not see them. Meaning all we're looking for is a clear indication that the markets likely to reach into some level of buy side or sell |
| 38 | 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:59,970 | side. And I'm submitting to not looking at anything this morning because I want to kind of like present the opportunity in the closest manner to someone that |
| 39 | 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:10,260 | doesn't know what I'm teaching. So I'm limiting my perspective to just this five minute chart. Now, you don't want to be doing this, obviously, the market just |
| 40 | 00:10:10,260 --> 00:10:19,320 | opened up. By the way. You don't want to do this if you're trying to trade with real funds. But I'm trying to pantomime as close as I can to someone that would |
| 41 | 00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:27,210 | have a limited perspective, which is someone that doesn't look at higher timeframe charts, someone that doesn't look at you much of anything except for |
| 42 | 00:10:27,210 --> 00:10:33,330 | the chart they're looking at at the time. And usually, it's a one minute chart or a five minute chart, because me and other people on the internet have |
| 43 | 00:10:33,330 --> 00:10:43,020 | showcased opportunities that we're presenting on those timeframes. So therefore, the audience members will gravitate to those timeframes, thinking that that's |
| 44 | 00:10:43,020 --> 00:10:52,020 | the only way to do it. When it's not, it's just, it's a good teaching medium for me, because it gives lots of opportunity Plus, it gives no room for any delay, |
| 45 | 00:10:52,470 --> 00:11:05,490 | like it's right there on the on the fly. And this five minute chart may not be the timeframe I'm going to use on I pulled that up to show the Monday closing |
| 46 | 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:16,170 | regular session price, which is that 3984. So just sticking to this timeframe, here, we're opening up with a premium premium in the sense that we are opening |
| 47 | 00:11:16,170 --> 00:11:28,740 | up with a gap from yesterday's close. So we've worked higher, overnight. And if you go to your regular trading hours tab and click on that, there's the gap |
| 48 | 00:11:28,740 --> 00:11:38,940 | we're looking at here, okay. So it's a very significant gap. Whenever it's like that, I like to see a little bit of a move to the upside to draw in the public, |
| 49 | 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:47,100 | make them want to chase it. And then typically what it will generally do not all the time, but generally, it'll want to move back down inside of that range. And |
| 50 | 00:11:47,100 --> 00:12:05,490 | what range Am I really, really speaking about this, outline that now. So using the regular session close price here, up to the opening price this morning. So |
| 51 | 00:12:05,490 --> 00:12:06,180 | that gap, |
| 52 | 00:12:07,680 --> 00:12:08,580 | which is significant. |
| 53 | 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:23,040 | Going into this morning, I want you to focus on the potential for just trading back into that range that's shaded here. We're not trying to make the case that |
| 54 | 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:34,590 | it's going to trade all the way back down to 3984 50. That's not an argument I'm trying to pose to you. What I'm suggesting is, can we see a five handle price |
| 55 | 00:12:34,590 --> 00:12:44,850 | run from wherever we trade up to and I'm not trying to pick the top, I'm going to let the market indicate that it's stopped, at least for the short term, going |
| 56 | 00:12:44,850 --> 00:12:55,110 | higher. I'm not trying to go long, I'm going to try to look for something that gets into that range here. So I'm giving you a directional bias that I'm looking |
| 57 | 00:12:55,110 --> 00:13:04,890 | to operate in doesn't mean that it can't go higher doesn't mean it can't go down to the previous session closing price. We're not trying to forecast that. |
| 58 | 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:17,160 | Remember, the argument here is how does one conquer fear of getting in? How do you conquer that, and you probably had anxiety, especially if you got lucky |
| 59 | 00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:27,000 | enough to get a funded account where you've passed the challenge. And now they give you the funded account. And then suddenly, you're met with this new |
| 60 | 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:38,550 | anxiety, this new. Let me go back to the electronic session. Now. Just be mindful that this shaded area here. That's our opening range gap. So where we |
| 61 | 00:13:38,550 --> 00:13:46,230 | closed yesterday, or previous day to where we open, that's what's being highlighted here. Okay, so when I dropped down into the electronic trading |
| 62 | 00:13:46,230 --> 00:14:01,860 | hours, that shaded area is what we're representing there. Okay. So, when I first started in 1992, I was immediately in a rush to get the account opened up. But |
| 63 | 00:14:01,860 --> 00:14:12,840 | then once the account was was opened, I was frozen with fear. And everything I was looking at on the chart seemed like it was Greek. Whereas I thought before I |
| 64 | 00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:25,350 | knew what I was looking for when I really didn't. But I was fearful and paranoid about doing anything. Because I was afraid of that first trade being what wrong. |
| 65 | 00:14:26,250 --> 00:14:34,860 | I was afraid of taking a loss. I was afraid of doing it incorrectly. And no one knew what I was doing. They didn't know I had money in the account. They didn't |
| 66 | 00:14:34,860 --> 00:14:43,350 | know me as a trader that I wasn't online. I wasn't inner circle trader yet. I was the guy that just opened up a trading account with Fox investments. Paying |
| 67 | 00:14:43,350 --> 00:14:54,930 | $100 per round her per contract. Yes, it was robbery. But that's what we were told that was the normal back then. So a discount broker was like Lindwall doc |
| 68 | 00:14:54,930 --> 00:15:08,340 | where you pay $37 per contract. So I was fearful my So much in the vein that most of you would have doing it wrong. But I was also afraid of because I only |
| 69 | 00:15:08,340 --> 00:15:20,850 | had $2,500 in the account, which was extremely under capitalized, like I didn't have enough money. So what I was thinking was, not only do I have to be right |
| 70 | 00:15:20,850 --> 00:15:29,130 | about my trade, but I also have to be right about my entry not going into too much drawdown because as soon as I put the trade on, they're going to do what |
| 71 | 00:15:29,190 --> 00:15:36,780 | they're going to take that commission rate out of that. So I gotta cover $100 right away. So if I'm trading the Green Market, like soybeans, I have to have at |
| 72 | 00:15:36,780 --> 00:15:49,620 | least two cents of a move. Because each penny move is 50 cent. I'm sorry, $50, much like an ES mini contract. So I was already overthinking everything. And |
| 73 | 00:15:49,620 --> 00:16:01,020 | that anxiety caused me to be much like a deer in headlights. And let me also talk about, you know, real quick. This, this is about teaching you how to |
| 74 | 00:16:01,020 --> 00:16:09,390 | overcome fear, it's not about teaching you to follow me and use as a signals, because I know some of you are here just for that very reason. If you're not |
| 75 | 00:16:09,390 --> 00:16:17,250 | listening to what I'm teaching, it's not going to be beneficial to you. I could get out here and push the button and eat right all day long, but it's not making |
| 76 | 00:16:17,250 --> 00:16:23,820 | you better. It's not teaching you how to do it on your own, which is really what I'm trying to do here is the only reason why I'm even doing live streams is it, |
| 77 | 00:16:24,090 --> 00:16:33,540 | show you how to do it. And my son who's hopefully gonna learn from this. And he wasn't privy to all this stuff that I'm talking about now, because he wasn't |
| 78 | 00:16:33,540 --> 00:16:47,010 | interested in in trading. He's typical teenage kid video games and in high school antics that kids do. But my concern, much like all of yours, if you've |
| 79 | 00:16:47,010 --> 00:16:55,620 | ever experienced fear, and some of you probably are fearful doing it wrong, even in a demo account, I've had many people reach out to me that they have ruined |
| 80 | 00:16:55,650 --> 00:17:02,700 | several demo accounts, not knowing what they're doing. And you're just so frustrated, they can't even get to the point where you can push a button there, |
| 81 | 00:17:03,270 --> 00:17:14,130 | which is extreme anxiety. But you're placing too much emphasis on the outcome being perfect for you. In the beginning, as I'll show you today, you want to |
| 82 | 00:17:14,130 --> 00:17:24,360 | exercise and do drills. And I'm gonna teach you how to cope with the initial fear of getting into a market move, and not worrying about that outcome being |
| 83 | 00:17:24,390 --> 00:17:31,830 | profitable. Now, before I close the session, obviously, my goal is to find something that moves five handles. That's that's obviously the intention today. |
| 84 | 00:17:32,550 --> 00:17:39,720 | But I'm also going to present opportunities where I want you to think about what you're being shown in the chart, I'm going to point to something and ask you to |
| 85 | 00:17:40,140 --> 00:17:51,300 | conceptualize what it is I'm pointing at? And does it make sense to utilize that as an entry, versus the ones that you'll actually see me push the button on. Now |
| 86 | 00:17:51,330 --> 00:18:00,690 | it's a it's a skill set that you'll obviously learn over time. But you can't just expect with a live account, whether it be a funded account, or your actual |
| 87 | 00:18:00,690 --> 00:18:08,670 | funds in a traditional broker, you can't expect those types of conditions just materialize magic, and all of a sudden, now you'd have to trade because you're |
| 88 | 00:18:08,670 --> 00:18:17,160 | using real money now, which is the reason why I'm an opponent, to anyone teaching that people should just learn how to trade with real money. You don't |
| 89 | 00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:27,390 | learn how to trade with real money, you learn how to engage risk, where you didn't have that before in paper trading and demonstrating. But you learned how |
| 90 | 00:18:27,390 --> 00:18:34,980 | to trade with a demo. That's what a demo does. The demo is not just to familiarize yourself with the platform or broker. It's absolutely to teach you |
| 91 | 00:18:34,980 --> 00:18:45,450 | how to trade. And anyone that says otherwise. Is this a fall. And this is the near to the bottom line. So we're looking at a market that has a little bit of a |
| 92 | 00:18:45,450 --> 00:18:53,100 | mixed bag to this morning, much like we had yesterday I was calling most of everything you saw yesterday. Yes. Well, my Twitter feeds, you can go back and |
| 93 | 00:18:53,160 --> 00:19:06,630 | take a look at that. But today we have the dollar index. It's come off its lows from 930 back into the range that was formed from 915 to 930. I'd like to see it |
| 94 | 00:19:06,630 --> 00:19:21,030 | mount a run above. You're welcome to check your charts. I don't want to talk too much. make the mistake of losing audio, the high one or 313. I want to see it. |
| 95 | 00:19:22,860 --> 00:19:37,140 | Trade above that that would indicate there's likeliness to see the shaded area on EDS be revisited. And again, we're just looking for an opportunity to frame a |
| 96 | 00:19:37,140 --> 00:19:46,980 | five handle run, which is not a lot. And right away. You should be thinking yeah, how much could I be risking with that? Well, when you first encounter |
| 97 | 00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:58,050 | doing entry drills where you're practicing with your demo account or your paper trading account, which is how you do this. You're using one contract. Now I know |
| 98 | 00:19:58,050 --> 00:20:04,320 | some of you out there that are trying to make a name for yourself. trolling and making up a bunch of nonsense. You're gonna go out there, and you're gonna say, |
| 99 | 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:12,150 | but I trade 40 contracts with 30 contracts and blow my account out in front everybody on live streams and pretend it doesn't happen. What we're doing is |
| 100 | 00:20:12,150 --> 00:20:26,370 | trying to teach you how to overcome the fear, that fear that anxiety is rooted in number one to leverage right away, the easiest thing to do to remove fear or |
| 101 | 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:38,970 | to squash it in any anxiety is to remove the leverage. dial that back. Just because you're funded account says you can trade with 15 contracts, that's not |
| 102 | 00:20:38,970 --> 00:20:48,000 | an invitation for you as my student to think that that's appropriate. That's a that's a lot of risk for someone that's just now getting a funded account. I |
| 103 | 00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:56,760 | mean, you're you're you're new, you don't have the experience, you have no idea what it feels like to watch an account balance fluctuate with that measure of |
| 104 | 00:20:58,140 --> 00:21:09,540 | capital on each point fluctuation. So you want to start with one contract, and you want to desensitize yourself, because that same five PIP handle or summer at |
| 105 | 00:21:09,540 --> 00:21:21,300 | five point run. In ETS, you can do the math. And overtime when you can graduate to two contracts, three contracts for contracts or even opt into that 15 |
| 106 | 00:21:21,300 --> 00:21:38,220 | contracts per trade. You'll have the experience working with price action that's associated with real monetary loss and potential gain. Views can't simply go out |
| 107 | 00:21:38,220 --> 00:21:44,670 | and say well, I'm ready for it. Now. I'm gonna, I'm gonna go out there and just plunge into the whatever the amount of contracts, they allow me, I'm going to do |
| 108 | 00:21:44,670 --> 00:21:45,030 | that. |
| 109 | 00:21:47,100 --> 00:21:57,120 | And when I was teaching predominantly, the forex markets, I mentioned that many times is because you can leverage as much as you can leverage with a broker, you |
| 110 | 00:21:57,120 --> 00:22:05,370 | should not be doing that. Because all you're doing is increasing the likelihood that you're gonna blow, you're gonna lose, you're gonna be fearful the entire |
| 111 | 00:22:05,370 --> 00:22:13,140 | time you're in the marketplace. So you want this to be very boring, you don't have any kind of emotion attached to it. Any kind of excitement, no kind of |
| 112 | 00:22:13,470 --> 00:22:27,930 | fanfare. If you remove all that your attention is going to be on price action, not how much you can make, or worrying about how much you're going to lose. And |
| 113 | 00:22:27,930 --> 00:22:37,770 | it's unfortunately the the case with most new traders is that they, they want to gamble much like the lottery, and how much they can put on the bet. And just |
| 114 | 00:22:37,770 --> 00:22:46,740 | hope it works out in their favor. Not realizing that if they just did very little risk, they can take lots of trades, and still stay in the game long |
| 115 | 00:22:46,740 --> 00:22:54,540 | enough to get the eventual outcome that they're looking for. If it's not get rich, quick, I'm sorry, get rich overnight real quick, because that's not what |
| 116 | 00:22:54,540 --> 00:23:10,050 | you should be doing here. So far, we're just marking time on es hasn't done too much of anything. I'm looking at the NASDAQ. It's not doing much at all either. |
| 117 | 00:23:10,050 --> 00:23:25,230 | But the Dow is certainly weaker. It's coming off of its run higher. It's posted this morning, earlier one. And I'm watching there's a volume imbalance at one Oh |
| 118 | 00:23:25,230 --> 00:23:38,820 | 3.06 On the one minute chart of dollar. So my eyes there want to see, respect that and still pressing to 123 13 that rallying higher on dollar would be risk |
| 119 | 00:23:38,820 --> 00:23:50,580 | off near term meaning that it's easier for foreign currencies like British Pound versus US dollar Dow NASDAQ ES to trade softer go lower. It doesn't mean I'm |
| 120 | 00:23:50,580 --> 00:24:01,950 | picking the top. It's not an indication that it's going to crash. All I'm saying is is it puts things in motion that would be likely supportive of weaker, lower |
| 121 | 00:24:01,950 --> 00:24:13,230 | prices, we already gapped higher it's already had that initial move higher. There's this consolidation. They broke out traders that use this type of idea to |
| 122 | 00:24:13,620 --> 00:24:17,910 | to buy on a breakout. They're already in this here |
| 123 | 00:24:25,470 --> 00:24:50,610 | I'm going to drop down into a one minute chart now. Actually it's a skill 34321. Okay, so the exercise I'm teaching you today when we get into a setting where |
| 124 | 00:24:50,610 --> 00:24:59,010 | there's opportunity there because there's nothing here yet. Remember the first 30 minutes as a trader trading with ETs. You want to be willing to submit to the |
| 125 | 00:24:59,010 --> 00:25:09,750 | first 30 minutes it doesn't mean that you can't find a setup, if it's there, if it's obvious than obviously, then you can. But as a rule of thumb, general rule |
| 126 | 00:25:09,750 --> 00:25:19,350 | of thumb, you want to submit to those first 30 minutes. Because sometimes there's reports that come out at 945. Not today, not every day. But sometimes |
| 127 | 00:25:19,350 --> 00:25:31,530 | that occurs. Also, the initial move right off the opening, generally is not the right one to be placing yourself in front of risk. So meaning, it could be a |
| 128 | 00:25:31,530 --> 00:25:40,260 | Judas swing, a fake a fake move, okay, so we want to allow the marketplace to, to draw in the gamblers that want to trade in here, the first couple minutes of |
| 129 | 00:25:40,260 --> 00:25:50,520 | trading, okay, and you want to just relax, slow down and remind yourself that you have plenty of time, plenty of time, you have the entire day to find these |
| 130 | 00:25:50,700 --> 00:25:57,360 | measly little five handles, and you don't want to rush, just simply to get it out of the way. Because that's also another thing that you'll you're going to |
| 131 | 00:25:57,360 --> 00:26:08,280 | feel like, you know, you want to train, you know, you're also initially anxious about doing it incorrectly. So one of the things you're gonna feel is, alright, |
| 132 | 00:26:08,340 --> 00:26:17,580 | I'm in front of the charts, I have my account, it's funded, or it's real. And I got to just get in here and get it out of the way. So that way I can make my |
| 133 | 00:26:17,580 --> 00:26:26,760 | money and closer charts and just just be away from it, what you're doing is you're conditioning yourself to hate trading. I went through a phase like that, |
| 134 | 00:26:27,210 --> 00:26:37,500 | after a few accounts that I bloom in the 90s. That feeling of, I just want to get in there and get my money and run away, I was conditioning myself to be |
| 135 | 00:26:37,500 --> 00:26:48,930 | afraid of it. Which is what made it almost impossible for me to grind through to a point of not being fearful, I have so many execution models that lets me get |
| 136 | 00:26:48,930 --> 00:27:00,660 | into a trade. I have lots of opportunities to get into a trade that allows me to participate in a move. And the reason why I have so many weapons like that is |
| 137 | 00:27:00,660 --> 00:27:12,990 | because that was one of my strongest barriers, I was afraid to enter. Because I didn't trust the model that I was working with was a good one. I didn't have |
| 138 | 00:27:12,990 --> 00:27:21,270 | enough experience seeing it work. I was in a hurry to scopes, I saw a few of them work. And sometimes they didn't work, but I blocked that part out. And |
| 139 | 00:27:21,270 --> 00:27:31,800 | that's another thing you need to be aware of you when you do these exercises. And these drills. Don't block out the times you do it wrong. Don't do that. You |
| 140 | 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:39,480 | want to make sure that you learn what you did incorrectly in those and don't try to put blinders on thinking, Okay, well, that didn't happen. No, you need to |
| 141 | 00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:46,650 | know what you're doing. Because if you don't address the issues that you're doing correctly, they're gonna repeat is redundant ly funds, you know what's |
| 142 | 00:27:46,650 --> 00:27:55,110 | going to happen. Eventually it's going to wear down that equity or wear down your mental capital and between both of them you will blow your account. So |
| 143 | 00:27:55,110 --> 00:28:06,990 | preservation of capital was the first and foremost important role in speculation whether you're doing it with paper trading demo or eventually in lifelines. So |
| 144 | 00:28:06,990 --> 00:28:09,840 | right away again, we're submitting that first 30 minutes |
| 145 | 00:28:15,120 --> 00:28:22,500 | nothing's happened so far today. Dollars firming up, it still hasn't gotten above that 123 13 level, |
| 146 | 00:28:22,650 --> 00:28:23,820 | which is what I'm looking for. |
| 147 | 00:28:24,419 --> 00:28:38,069 | I want to see it get above that $1 One zero 3.13 That's the level I referred to earlier as weakness and we're looking for that right there. Okay, now right away |
| 148 | 00:28:38,789 --> 00:28:43,829 | your eyes should jump to these clean lows right there you see that? |
| 149 | 00:28:44,550 --> 00:28:47,550 | See that right there? Now |
| 150 | 00:28:48,540 --> 00:28:59,010 | what's resting below those lows sellside liquidity, this low here we had a displacement below it. We're trading back up into the imbalance here |
| 151 | 00:29:04,110 --> 00:29:08,460 | so the risk would have to be on the chart |
| 152 | 00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:21,480 | to 140 20 swing high |
| 153 | 00:29:23,250 --> 00:29:38,220 | 40 25.75. Okay, so do we offer an opportunity to see five candles in this area here to that level here? Yes. |
| 154 | 00:29:43,410 --> 00:29:44,430 | That's not bright enough. |
| 155 | 00:30:18,930 --> 00:30:31,140 | Okay so now what I'm doing is as I'm watching the ES here I want to see it dropped below this the trade back inside this shaded area and also gravitate |
| 156 | 00:30:31,140 --> 00:30:38,520 | towards the sell side liquidity and I'm watching the dollar index there's a small little imbalance that it's trading on let me tell you the candle right now |
| 157 | 00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:50,070 | if you look at the one minute chart is the 944 big green candle on the one minute chart I'm watching does it respect that number does it want to send |
| 158 | 00:30:50,130 --> 00:30:53,790 | dollar higher while I'm watching ES. |
| 159 | 00:32:11,490 --> 00:32:12,120 | So what we're |
| 160 | 00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:19,440 | doing is the initial drill is five for five, that means you're going to risk five handles to make five handles. Alright, you know, there's gonna be |
| 161 | 00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:33,750 | individuals in here thinking, Oh, that doesn't make money, it makes money. But you don't need a high rate of multiples four. You don't need a five to one |
| 162 | 00:32:33,780 --> 00:32:44,790 | attend to 121 are multiple to be profitable. If you have a strike rate that's pretty high, you can do one for one. But while you're training yourself, you |
| 163 | 00:32:44,790 --> 00:32:51,690 | don't need that, you can just do one for one, because you're conditioning yourself to get over that fear of missing, we're not missing the trading, |
| 164 | 00:32:51,810 --> 00:32:55,230 | because you're afraid you're gonna miss a move, we're going to take a loss |
| 165 | 00:33:01,980 --> 00:33:14,910 | still watching that dollar this one here is not as clean as I would have liked to have seen it, I would have rather had not seen that little move here. But I'm |
| 166 | 00:33:14,910 --> 00:33:22,110 | giving it an opportunity to see if I can see that run up $1 on that small little buys and |
| 167 | 00:33:22,260 --> 00:33:23,250 | sells on efficiency. |
| 168 | 00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:35,190 | And again, we're still in first in that first 30 minutes of trading. So this is all part of that. What are you looking for ICT? What are you waiting for? What |
| 169 | 00:33:35,190 --> 00:33:42,420 | do you look to see? What do you want to find in price action? What is your focus? What don't you like? That's what I'm doing right here. This is how you |
| 170 | 00:33:42,420 --> 00:33:50,070 | mentor someone. It's just not blindly going in there and just taking a trade. Now let's just say for instance, let's play devil's advocate for a moment say to |
| 171 | 00:33:50,070 --> 00:34:04,020 | start the break lower. Okay, say breaks lower, and I haven't gotten in yet. I can use the top of that shaded area and the midpoint of this wick here, which |
| 172 | 00:34:04,020 --> 00:34:11,340 | will be consequent encroachment. Now, what if it's traded down here but didn't trade below here yet, and traded back up into it? I don't have a problem with |
| 173 | 00:34:11,340 --> 00:34:18,750 | that taken as an entry. Now you might not be comfortable with something like that. I'm not trying to convince you that that's the model for you. All I'm |
| 174 | 00:34:18,750 --> 00:34:30,030 | saying is is how do you overcome fear of entry? That's the whole topic today. But I'm wanting to trade with an entry with a fair value. That's what I'm trying |
| 175 | 00:34:30,030 --> 00:34:40,860 | to force my focus on that way. At some point, it's going to give it to me. I just have to wait long enough for it to happen. It's going to happen every day. |
| 176 | 00:34:40,860 --> 00:34:54,150 | There's one but you don't have the patience if you're new to wait for it. And since we have nothing in here did I go short? No. Why? Because there's no fair |
| 177 | 00:34:54,150 --> 00:35:03,210 | value got. I wanted to see a small little portion of that down close candle left open. Then a new candlestick chart, and then it trade up into that, then I would |
| 178 | 00:35:03,210 --> 00:35:09,960 | have, I would have so short rate there, targeting these lows. But if I don't have what I'm looking for in the chart, I'm not just going to think, well, you |
| 179 | 00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:19,680 | know, I got video games to play, I got to do something here, or my wife's going to be asking me do something, and I won't be in front of my charts. Not that she |
| 180 | 00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:29,460 | does that. But you know how it is in real world, you get pulled away from doing this. And they're wonderful little distractions. So Dollar Index did not respect |
| 181 | 00:35:29,460 --> 00:35:36,870 | that fair value gap, which is what I was watching for, it went a little bit deeper than I wanted to see, but it does have a wick. If you look at the wick on |
| 182 | 00:35:36,870 --> 00:35:48,480 | the candle, one minute chart for dx, why the 943 low, that wick on the low end of the candle. We've just dropped down into that. So I'm trying to watch and see |
| 183 | 00:35:48,480 --> 00:36:00,390 | if we get some kind of respect there and go higher. But I don't like where we are with ES. So we might need to go one more time. Higher when es NASDAQ looks |
| 184 | 00:36:00,390 --> 00:36:09,270 | like it wants to flirt with a higher high also so but the Dow is this adult right now. We pull up there real quick, since there's really nothing here at the |
| 185 | 00:36:09,510 --> 00:36:26,580 | time for ES my focus is primarily on that market. So that's the difference between the Dow on the one minute chart, lower sloppier. And then on NASDAQ. We |
| 186 | 00:36:26,580 --> 00:36:45,480 | have that. So we have relatively equal highs, it looks like we could run up in there and hit that. Yes. What is so we have relative equal highs here. Small |
| 187 | 00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:51,810 | little gap here. So if we trade it down there to that, to 23 to 28, that would be five handles. |
| 188 | 00:37:01,950 --> 00:37:04,230 | dollars just hanging around, still not confirming or |
| 189 | 00:37:04,230 --> 00:37:05,100 | denying anything. |
| 190 | 00:37:15,510 --> 00:37:28,800 | This is the part. This is the time that is excruciating for inexperienced traders, you feel like okay, you showed up, you're here it says gonna push the |
| 191 | 00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:36,300 | button today. And you're ready, you're chomping at the bit, you can't wait. And that's exactly how it feels. When you get in front of a chart. When you have |
| 192 | 00:37:36,300 --> 00:37:44,940 | life funds at your disposal. You want to do something, but then you're also scared. What if I do it wrong, everything's a second guess. And you're in a |
| 193 | 00:37:44,940 --> 00:37:57,030 | hurry, you're just in a hurry to get into this to do something. And that's the trap, you have to still remember what you learned about trading in a demo, you |
| 194 | 00:37:57,030 --> 00:38:04,620 | have to remember those lessons, you have to go back on that experience. Because if you don't refer to that or even have gained any of that experience, you're |
| 195 | 00:38:04,620 --> 00:38:12,180 | going to be impulsively just pressing the button, then there has to be something in the chart to do a entry on just can't just reduce this gamble and see what |
| 196 | 00:38:12,180 --> 00:38:19,830 | happens. We're saying that it can go up to that 4028 level, I'm not interested in taking that. But that's a move as if it is |
| 197 | 00:38:25,680 --> 00:38:36,900 | that I want to use a fair value gap today. That's That's my focus. I'm confident it'll form. I'm just trying to exercise discipline to show you what it's like to |
| 198 | 00:38:36,900 --> 00:38:47,970 | sit through all the other price action moves. I don't care who's making money on YouTube. I don't care how many people's posting things on Twitter. That's not my |
| 199 | 00:38:47,970 --> 00:38:56,130 | trade, that's not your trade, you can't go back in time and enter when they did if it was even profitable at all. So you have to submit yourself to this process |
| 200 | 00:38:56,130 --> 00:39:13,500 | of learning to pop up through and hit that 4020 level. Still very, very mixed. Which is typical ahead of FOMC. You have to be a lot more nimble on days like |
| 201 | 00:39:13,500 --> 00:39:24,480 | this and also by lowering your expectations. So now think about what's actually occurring here. The markets gapped up at the open, we got a small little rally |
| 202 | 00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:34,590 | higher and we've dropped but we have dropped aggressively there was no real energetic drop. See that the only thing we had here was this drop down here any |
| 203 | 00:39:34,590 --> 00:39:44,130 | quickly with the relationships of intermarket analysis with the dollar. It canceled out any short here. And if you missed it, you'll it'll be in the |
| 204 | 00:39:44,130 --> 00:39:52,860 | recording, go back and listen to it. There's the pop the 4020 So, in my mind, I'm thinking anyone that's already trying to sell short, the gap higher in |
| 205 | 00:39:52,890 --> 00:40:03,480 | initial high that's being formed here. This run here kills them so now I'm watching very closely how that dollar index go back to that original fear of a |
| 206 | 00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:18,990 | gap that means the one at the candle at 944 One minute Dollar Index if we rally here because we cut through candles we're not supply and demand cut through the |
| 207 | 00:40:18,990 --> 00:40:26,610 | candles that's been formed over the last seven or eight of them go back to that fair value got the candle we're in right now basically is already traded down |
| 208 | 00:40:26,610 --> 00:40:36,750 | into that low that fair value gap and I want to see does it rally higher on dollar and if that does this high here on es could be suspect meaning that it's |
| 209 | 00:40:36,750 --> 00:40:46,200 | just a run on by stocks are in one short and then we could look to see it traded into that for 20 or lower but it has to do so in price all we're doing is |
| 210 | 00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:48,030 | anticipating the likelihood of that right now |
| 211 | 00:41:03,030 --> 00:41:03,450 | back |
| 212 | 00:41:41,610 --> 00:41:49,680 | and what I'm doing is I'm my attention is going through Eurodollar and I'm telling you like what are you looking at Euro dollar for I'm looking at Euro I'm |
| 213 | 00:41:49,680 --> 00:42:03,210 | looking at the POUND DOLLAR. Looking at the dollar index, I'm looking at the relationships of that triad and trying to get a measure for where risk is is it |
| 214 | 00:42:03,210 --> 00:42:15,870 | risk on or risk off. And euros just consolidating, it hasn't really done much at all. Since around 730 It's been consolidation dollar like I said it's came off |
| 215 | 00:42:15,870 --> 00:42:31,500 | its lows at 123. And I'm still looking for that 123 13 to be broken to the upside and how we trade there hasn't gone below $1 index hasn't gone lower than |
| 216 | 00:42:31,500 --> 00:42:43,440 | the low formed at 954 54 is low. And now we have es going back down below these highs here |
| 217 | 00:42:50,340 --> 00:42:52,050 | okay dollars looking favorable now. |
| 218 | 00:42:57,630 --> 00:43:10,500 | So now what we're gonna do is we're gonna wait to see if this high stays in place. If we break lower and create a fair value gap in here, between where |
| 219 | 00:43:12,030 --> 00:43:30,840 | between this low and the high that's formed. We're using that price like they're so inside of this range. This is protraction it's done what is taken by side |
| 220 | 00:43:31,290 --> 00:43:48,030 | here with this rally up. So inside of this price leg we're anticipating now a fair way to get the form and if it can form I'll use that one. Excuse me. I'll |
| 221 | 00:43:48,030 --> 00:43:51,810 | use that one to try to get a run for five handles |
| 222 | 00:43:59,070 --> 00:44:01,110 | now I don't want it to go too fast from here |
| 223 | 00:44:09,119 --> 00:44:11,429 | breads like ICTs trying to trade it don't give it to them |
| 224 | 00:44:14,309 --> 00:44:18,599 | repricing lower no Bear Bear you got he's gonna convince everybody today |
| 225 | 00:44:23,940 --> 00:44:26,610 | can't do it all day. And I'll stay here long enough to do it |
| 226 | 00:44:33,270 --> 00:44:43,410 | Okay, so you can see already like if we were using turtle suit, Turtle suit would be that run above and this going in there in shorting it because we had a |
| 227 | 00:44:43,410 --> 00:44:49,230 | divergence between the Dow and NASDAQ and es making higher highs Dow didn't do that. |
| 228 | 00:44:52,289 --> 00:44:53,429 | Alright, so |
| 229 | 00:44:56,849 --> 00:45:02,909 | I want to see this candle here. Create the fair value got right there. I don't want to see it go up and have an immediate rebalance, I just want to see it. |
| 230 | 00:45:03,269 --> 00:45:12,509 | Close this candle open another one, venturi didn't do it. But not take out that low yet. I don't want to see that happen yet. It looks like it looks like it's |
| 231 | 00:45:12,509 --> 00:45:23,339 | time to run. Dollar index is nicely ran up into the level I want to see. Beautiful, beautiful. And we do have a fear of a gap here. |
| 232 | 00:45:29,789 --> 00:45:42,809 | So you can do one of two things here. In your practice, you can set a limit order here at this high plus one tick. And then you just stop a five handles and |
| 233 | 00:45:42,809 --> 00:45:55,019 | then use a take profit of five handles. Or you can wait for it to trade up there. And that's like I said, running the risk of not participating on this one |
| 234 | 00:45:55,019 --> 00:46:08,099 | because it's already running and not giving a return back to it. Which is fine. But you didn't get in it, I know there's lots of moves, I don't participate in |
| 235 | 00:46:08,429 --> 00:46:09,629 | this like you're going to discover |
| 236 | 00:46:19,380 --> 00:46:30,660 | now we have a breaker. Okay, so while I don't want to utilize this as my entry, I do want to bring it to your attention because it's here now, the breaker is |
| 237 | 00:46:30,750 --> 00:46:41,790 | where we have a high, a low and a higher high, where it has taken by site as I outlined in real time, this buyside that's been taken, our attention goes to the |
| 238 | 00:46:41,790 --> 00:46:55,470 | down move prior to the Second theory hired high. So in other words, in short, the low between the two highs. So where's the down close in in that in that low |
| 239 | 00:46:55,470 --> 00:47:06,660 | here these candles entirely all that range 123123. |
| 240 | 00:47:14,070 --> 00:47:26,820 | So inside this range that is a bearish breaker. So let's just say it goes up into this fair value gap here. You can short it but you have to incorporate this |
| 241 | 00:47:27,270 --> 00:47:39,720 | because it can trade up into that as well. Because it's it's a bit of a gap within the breaker. So ideally, I'd really want it to trade up into here but it |
| 242 | 00:47:39,720 --> 00:47:51,690 | may be asking too much of it. So I'm going to do a lower probability entry. If we can go right above this high here just hit it one more time pumped into that |
| 243 | 00:47:51,720 --> 00:47:56,370 | once more I'll go short risk five handles and see if we can get five he'll run |
| 244 | 00:48:09,059 --> 00:48:25,469 | the liquidity is obviously sitting right below 4014 25. So 4014 to five all this mood lows here their sales thoughts resting below that. So if Smart Money has |
| 245 | 00:48:25,469 --> 00:48:34,049 | sold short up here, collecting what the buy stops, so they sold to those buy stops with this run here. So where are they going to try to get out at ideally, |
| 246 | 00:48:34,529 --> 00:48:42,989 | market efficiency paradigm is they're going to buy from sellers at a lower price markets here where our sellers at a lower price below these equal lows. |
| 247 | 00:48:56,280 --> 00:49:07,320 | I can enter here. But my five handles doesn't provide me enough shield where we are in that range with this fair value gap. Which is also one of the things you |
| 248 | 00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:14,820 | have to contend with when you're trying to take entries. Just because you feel confident he's going to go to a specific level, you still have to consider the |
| 249 | 00:49:14,820 --> 00:49:24,120 | risk. And just because you might be right about where it's going. You can't chase it. You got to try it you got to trade in a premium if you're going short. |
| 250 | 00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:35,400 | That means trading in a up close candle is one of the filters that many times is going to serve you better than you realize now. If you can sell short and up |
| 251 | 00:49:35,400 --> 00:49:42,690 | close candles and buy in down close candles, you're giving yourself an advantage that most traders don't realize when you're trying to do entries |
| 252 | 00:49:55,770 --> 00:49:58,500 | me that now the one next |
| 253 | 00:50:17,039 --> 00:50:19,979 | I'm going to save it in this one immediately. That's what I'm watching waiting for |
| 254 | 00:50:28,650 --> 00:50:30,000 | now, I just pressed that button |
| 255 | 00:50:33,869 --> 00:50:35,009 | took forever to get it in there |
| 256 | 00:50:49,980 --> 00:50:51,390 | okay, now you just submit to it. |
| 257 | 00:50:52,710 --> 00:51:04,650 | If it takes you out, that's fine. If it stops you out, it's fine. And you want to submit to the idea that how much time does it take? Once you enter the trade? |
| 258 | 00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:12,900 | How much time does it take for you to see it move in your favor? Or if it stops you out? How fast did it take yourself out? |
| 259 | 00:51:49,050 --> 00:52:00,540 | Now obviously, I'm using a fair value gap entry, but I'm using the context of that breaker. So it kind of like allows for more of the things I like to look |
| 260 | 00:52:00,540 --> 00:52:10,890 | for in price action. But framing is being utilized with other tools. But hopefully you at least see that the reason why I'm entering is in that fair pay |
| 261 | 00:52:10,890 --> 00:52:12,990 | gap right here. Okay. |
| 262 | 00:52:21,510 --> 00:52:32,580 | Now, there's a small little volume imbalance in here, I want to see a tree through that and not get back above it once it does go below it. Now you reduce |
| 263 | 00:52:32,580 --> 00:52:42,870 | the risk, put it right above the breaker. That way, if I'm stopped out, it's a small little loss. And all you're doing is studying price action watching does |
| 264 | 00:52:42,870 --> 00:52:54,390 | it still continuously deliver, wanting to get down into sit to this low right here. But if I had more, let's go back to this idea where the sell side is okay. |
| 265 | 00:52:56,310 --> 00:53:08,760 | But when you're practicing, you want to have a five for five, five risk five game I want to see right here stay heavy and go lower, that would be an |
| 266 | 00:53:08,760 --> 00:53:20,940 | immediate rebalance. Number, it's kind of like a fear of a gap return and drops. I want to see Yes, remain heavy. I want to see the dollar climb back up into one |
| 267 | 00:53:20,940 --> 00:53:22,080 | of the 316 area. |
| 268 | 00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:38,250 | And also you want to indicate in your journal that you're trading ahead of FOMC. So you're in a market climate that is not conducive for high precision. It's not |
| 269 | 00:53:38,280 --> 00:53:47,790 | conducive for low resistance liquidity run means the easy salad days like trading that's not that's not where we're at. But you want to practice in these |
| 270 | 00:53:47,790 --> 00:53:57,900 | conditions because by practicing in these conditions, you're preparing yourself really for the best when the markets more free to move and when it's when it's |
| 271 | 00:53:57,900 --> 00:54:07,410 | easier to see it rally or or drop into levels that you're expected when it says real sudden movement or one favor just digging into it. That's the type of |
| 272 | 00:54:07,410 --> 00:54:16,020 | trades I teach my students to look for. I look for that as a signature in the marketplace versus this simply well the markets are moving today the markets are |
| 273 | 00:54:16,020 --> 00:54:28,590 | trading so therefore let me just go out here and try to make money. That to me is not enough. My eyes watching how we traded that low. I want to see it traded |
| 274 | 00:54:28,590 --> 00:54:31,710 | that low and expand quickly to get these cell stops. |