ICT YT - 2023-03-06 - Live Tape Reading - Baseline 1 of 3
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-03-08 13:30
Outline
01:37 - Today’s Topic: Audio.
03:58 - The first of three baseline measurements for you.
09:25 - How to use a paper trading account.
15:33 - The first few minutes of trading -.
20:37 - What’s going to be a hard week for traders.
27:31 - Opening range and wage gap.
33:55 - How to be fearful of losing and be emotionally attached to the outcome -.
38:56 - What does it look like to be in high resistance liquidity runs?
44:44 - Partial trading is the stupidest thing.
51:58 - How to manage risk -.
56:39 - The fear of a gap and the dollar index.
01:01:13 - What to look for in price action -.
01:06:33 - Don’t be afraid to fail.
01:12:28 - Dollar index and the dollar index.
01:18:03 - Low resistance liquidity runs -.
01:23:03 - Don’t try to frame your trading ideas as your own -.
01:29:32 - US vs US 500 vs. ES futures.
Transcript
| 1 | 00:01:37,500 --> 00:01:49,770 | ICT: Well, good morning, folks. Good morning. Good morning, good morning, just waiting. For latency test here, I can hear myself already. So it's pretty, it's |
| 2 | 00:01:49,770 --> 00:01:50,400 | pretty quick |
| 3 | 00:01:57,450 --> 00:02:02,040 | I'm not gonna mess around with that headset this morning, because it's failing me multiple times, so |
| 4 | 00:02:13,170 --> 00:02:24,750 | I should be safe. Today, I'm working with one OBS issue that issue but one of the things that causes me or has caused me on two different occasions to lose |
| 5 | 00:02:24,750 --> 00:02:38,160 | audio, because I'm a complete noob with OBS, the scene feature that you use to like, capture the charts or capture your screen or whatever. Some of them, I did |
| 6 | 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:54,570 | not actually assign a audio input capture. So when I switched shards in the past, it caused me to lose the audio. And I talked for like two hours. So we're |
| 7 | 00:02:54,570 --> 00:03:02,010 | gonna try to prevent that from happening by only having one scene, which I know has audio coming into it now. So and there's some of you are probably gonna say |
| 8 | 00:03:02,010 --> 00:03:12,270 | the audio sounds like crap. That's because I'm only using the internal microphone, because as I mentioned, I've tried to use this headset, which I paid |
| 9 | 00:03:12,270 --> 00:03:21,990 | a pretty good amount of money for not a lot, but I thought the highest and I could. And for whatever reason, it didn't work for me. So I will be shopping for |
| 10 | 00:03:21,990 --> 00:03:33,960 | a better microphone, I'm certain. But this is good enough, you guys can hear me. So before we get into it, just know that today, I will be doing one of three |
| 11 | 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:45,030 | baseline measurements for your learning this year. So we've been tomorrow will be one month and another out of commission for a week. Last week, I was battling |
| 12 | 00:03:45,030 --> 00:03:53,460 | the flu. And I forewarn you, I'll probably cough a couple times in this presentation. And I may not be quick enough to the mute button, so I'm not going |
| 13 | 00:03:53,460 --> 00:04:01,830 | to bother doing it. So you'll hear me probably clear my throat multiple times. And I apologize, I'm human. But that's where I've been for the last few days |
| 14 | 00:04:01,830 --> 00:04:16,590 | battling that. That the first of three baseline measurements for you as the student this year is to observe the ability for you to capture, regain, |
| 15 | 00:04:17,070 --> 00:04:29,490 | mitigate, if you will, drawdown. I'm going to encourage you to go into before I say this, okay, let me take this out because invariably, you're gonna have |
| 16 | 00:04:29,490 --> 00:04:37,320 | somebody come out here and take a sound bite from this and take it completely out of context. So |
| 17 | 00:05:03,330 --> 00:05:17,730 | Okay, so what this is, is a way for you to determine your growth. So there's no better way to determine how much you have learned than by being put in, in a |
| 18 | 00:05:17,730 --> 00:05:23,790 | laboratory experiment. And basically given you, like see this real essence of |
| 19 | 00:05:31,110 --> 00:05:42,810 | the the measurement of understanding how to recapture or mitigate drawdown, obviously, as a, as a trader, whether you're speculating in a demo, paper |
| 20 | 00:05:42,810 --> 00:05:50,430 | trading, or live account funded account, whatever, you're going to do it wrong, okay, invariably, you're gonna get it wrong, you do something incorrectly. And |
| 21 | 00:05:50,490 --> 00:05:59,670 | at 930, we will be looking at live price action, but I just want to kind of build a foundation for what we're going to end up doing today as a laboratory |
| 22 | 00:05:59,670 --> 00:06:11,880 | experiment. There's never really been, in my observation, anyone teaching, with an approach to inspiring want to go into drawdown with the purpose of correcting |
| 23 | 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:22,350 | it. Everyone teaches with their courses, their books, through their mediums of view, if you will, but they'll teach how to chase money, how to go after and |
| 24 | 00:06:22,830 --> 00:06:32,010 | enter trades, and you build up money, equity, everyone's interested in trying to make money. And that's great at them. So that's why we're here, right, and you |
| 25 | 00:06:32,010 --> 00:06:40,980 | try to do this, to learn a skill set that could hopefully be translated into speculating and profiting with live funds. I don't ever encourage any of you to |
| 26 | 00:06:40,980 --> 00:06:49,170 | do it with live funds, obviously, because I'm not a licensed financial advisor. So everything I do, and everything I teach is by means of paper trading or |
| 27 | 00:06:49,290 --> 00:06:56,970 | demonstrating. I'm not a financial adviser, so I can't give that type of advice. But we can talk openly. And I can give you my opinion about these candlesticks |
| 28 | 00:06:56,970 --> 00:07:08,970 | and what I think is likely to paint next for them. And that is not the same as trading with life funds. Because that incurs what taxation and monetary loss if |
| 29 | 00:07:08,970 --> 00:07:16,980 | you make money have to pay taxes on it. And if you lose it, you suffer monetary loss. So it removes while you're training and learning and studying on your own, |
| 30 | 00:07:17,370 --> 00:07:28,260 | it removes all of that problem. That problem of measuring your ability, the attitude of you as a student, and unfortunately, many of you try to reach for |
| 31 | 00:07:28,260 --> 00:07:42,960 | measuring your skill set way too early, way, way, way too early. And to encourage you at the beginning, which is the first baseline here, you may fail |
| 32 | 00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:53,700 | this laboratory experiment this week. In fact, it's probably almost certain you're going to fail it. We have Non Farm Payroll conditions. We have two |
| 33 | 00:07:53,730 --> 00:08:05,700 | sessions tomorrow, and on Wednesday, where the chairman Fed chairman will be testifying. So I purposely chose this week, which would be exactly how you if |
| 34 | 00:08:05,700 --> 00:08:12,990 | you're out there rushing to get into trading with real money before you should before you know how to trade, you would be trading in a week like this thinking |
| 35 | 00:08:13,020 --> 00:08:24,720 | you got to pass your funded account challenge because you only got a couple days left or whatever. Those things are going to push you in real world to make |
| 36 | 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:32,820 | decisions, which is also reason why you don't want to be trading with real money. Before you have a nice nest egg. I mean two years of living expenses in |
| 37 | 00:08:32,820 --> 00:08:44,820 | the bank. That way you can draw from that if need be not requiring yourself to trade rate on the next Trade Week, profit once a profit, it puts too much |
| 38 | 00:08:44,820 --> 00:08:52,230 | pressure on you, especially if you're not seasoned as a as a technician or Trader that's been doing for a long time, when you place so much emphasis on the |
| 39 | 00:08:52,230 --> 00:09:02,040 | ability of us a new trader to now feed yourself to make all of your ends meet. That is unfortunately one of the biggest traps in this industry. Because if it's |
| 40 | 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:11,670 | not get rich, quick, it's trade for a living before you're ready. And I've never really pushed that message. I've never done those types of things, which makes |
| 41 | 00:09:11,670 --> 00:09:21,660 | me somewhat boring in that respect, but there's a right way to do this. And there's a whole lot of other ways there's wrong. So to help you understand where |
| 42 | 00:09:21,660 --> 00:09:34,140 | you are in your learning right now. You have unlimited experience. And that's reasonable, because we just we just started. So we're going to encourage you to |
| 43 | 00:09:34,140 --> 00:09:44,580 | use a paper trading account which I've already talked about this on Twitter. I did a poll, weeks back maybe a week or month or so ago, and I asked everyone if |
| 44 | 00:09:44,580 --> 00:09:51,900 | they were going to be using a funded account company or if they were going to go that route with their trading because they may not have speculation capital |
| 45 | 00:09:52,230 --> 00:10:04,740 | readily available. We can go out and take 25,000 50,000 or $100,000 to go out and start trading and you The idea of everyone wanting to trade with funded |
| 46 | 00:10:04,740 --> 00:10:14,730 | accounts, obviously, most people can't afford right away, that upper tier, like the 150,000. And majority of if I'm not mistaken, I can't recall exactly. But if |
| 47 | 00:10:14,730 --> 00:10:26,280 | I'm not mistaken, I think most of the poll results in AI can be seen, that can stand to be corrected, rather. But I think it was most of everyone wanting to go |
| 48 | 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:37,440 | with the low end funded account tears, because they, it's cheaper, okay, that's how they're looking at it. But we're gonna use the argument that, even if that's |
| 49 | 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:45,720 | what you did, and you were successful with it, you would eventually want to do what graduate to the highest one, and then probably do multiple accounts where |
| 50 | 00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:55,800 | you're copying yourself or whatever. And from my limited experience, looking at them, I've never traded with a funding account, I've never done I have no |
| 51 | 00:10:55,800 --> 00:11:06,480 | interest in doing that. Personally, my son's about to embark on that. But it looks like the 150,000 for one of the most widely followed funded accounts, or |
| 52 | 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:18,270 | companies is about $150,000. And they give you a threshold of how much money you can take as a max last day. And we're gonna basically inspire you to do that to |
| 53 | 00:11:18,270 --> 00:11:28,830 | yourself this week, or specifically this day, particularly this day. Before you close your charts today, the laboratory experiment is for you to have already |
| 54 | 00:11:28,830 --> 00:11:42,270 | created if you haven't already done so, on trading view, it's free to do this, folks. You go into the trading view, paper trading, then click on reset, and you |
| 55 | 00:11:42,270 --> 00:11:51,930 | want to do 150,000, which already set this to 150,000. And what you're going to do is you're going to sit at your computer today, it won't take long to do this. |
| 56 | 00:11:52,620 --> 00:12:01,620 | But you're going to markets open up right now, we want to Secondly, switch over to I'll come back to the discussion, I just want to ask the first few minutes of |
| 57 | 00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:06,540 | Yes. |
| 58 | 00:12:17,910 --> 00:12:27,300 | So this is the new week of in gap for this week here. And I will give you a teaching. I mentioned I need to do it last month sick. But I will have one of |
| 59 | 00:12:27,300 --> 00:12:36,750 | work on it tonight. And tomorrow, it will be posted on my YouTube channel. So that way, you'll know introduction to my new week opening gap principle, what I |
| 60 | 00:12:36,750 --> 00:12:49,020 | use it for how it helps me How can help you. But right now, you can see how we had created short term high here. Prices drawn back down below that new week |
| 61 | 00:12:49,020 --> 00:13:00,450 | opening gap. Didn't take out the sell side below here. But we have taken out by side here. So I'm watching the dollar index, which I will I will be able to |
| 62 | 00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:09,690 | toggle through the charts here and feel confident I won't lose the audio because I'm only using one scene with OBS. So OBS is the screen capturing software that |
| 63 | 00:13:09,690 --> 00:13:17,280 | I'm using. So you can see what I'm looking at real time. And I saw a joker out there saying I don't use live data. This is live data from this, okay, I mean, |
| 64 | 00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:31,410 | this is live as you're gonna get. There's a small little delay between the talking but it's literally seconds. So let's go into a five minute chart with ES |
| 65 | 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:39,060 | I'm going to call on this label here throughout the session this morning. |
| 66 | 00:13:44,370 --> 00:13:54,720 | Right so you're you're never really trying to rush especially today, because we've had a nice big range expansion on the upside on the daily chart Friday. We |
| 67 | 00:13:54,720 --> 00:14:02,760 | have Fed Chairman tomorrow and on Wednesday speaking. So there isn't likely to be a lot of animation in the market today. It doesn't mean that you can't |
| 68 | 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:12,480 | participate. That doesn't mean you can't study and observe what price is doing. But you got to keep your expectations within reason. So let's take a look at why |
| 69 | 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:24,570 | this might go back down into the weak opening gap here because we've taken by side here and look at the dollar index here. So we've taken a sell side |
| 70 | 00:14:24,570 --> 00:14:32,580 | liquidity pool here. So now we have a little fair value gap there so much if we get out there does it respect that doesn't go through it. I'm not interested in |
| 71 | 00:14:32,580 --> 00:14:43,560 | doing anything the first few minutes of a day like today just because the market open. Just because the opening bell has ran doesn't mean we rush out there and |
| 72 | 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:49,680 | just try to plunk down a bet. That's gambling. So I'm gonna |
| 73 | 00:15:09,450 --> 00:15:24,750 | periodically toggle through these charts on the right hand side as the US cash. It's a CFD states. And on the left hand side is the March contract. But yes. So |
| 74 | 00:15:24,750 --> 00:15:37,860 | I'm looking at that relationship between the lows here on dollar watching to see if we can get the height higher. Yes. So the first few minutes of 930 is opening |
| 75 | 00:15:38,490 --> 00:15:48,600 | what I'm doing. As an analyst, I'm watching price and justify whether or not the initial first few minutes of trading this tipping a team to show me what it |
| 76 | 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:57,810 | wants to reach for gun to my head, I believe that you know, ultimately, because we've gone as hard as far as we have one upside here, I believe we're going to |
| 77 | 00:15:57,810 --> 00:15:59,310 | go to the next week opening gap |
| 78 | 00:16:04,770 --> 00:16:15,570 | which takes us back to this chart here. And that will be up here. So the minimum upside objective studying price right now it would be 4077. But I'm watching |
| 79 | 00:16:16,050 --> 00:16:24,390 | throughout the first few minutes of the day to see if that is in fact what it wants to do. If it wants to do so then down close candles will be supported by |
| 80 | 00:16:24,390 --> 00:16:37,140 | price or will support price. And it will want to expand continuously up and not try to get lower in its institutional order flow. I don't need any kind of like |
| 81 | 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:45,960 | ladders or depth of market thing on the right hand side of my chart to do that. And you don't need trend lines you don't need level two data. It's just simply |
| 82 | 00:16:45,960 --> 00:17:00,300 | reading the price in price action itself dropped down to a five minute chart using this Okay, so if you look at this little fear that I got right here, I'm |
| 83 | 00:17:00,300 --> 00:17:05,460 | gonna try something somebody suggested something to me I'm not sure if it's even working |
| 84 | 00:17:11,970 --> 00:17:22,770 | trying to find a way to highlight the the cursor on using OBS and if somebody sent you a file that you downloaded or whatever you're trying to activate things |
| 85 | 00:17:22,770 --> 00:17:24,570 | the computers interesting stuff |
| 86 | 00:17:33,870 --> 00:17:45,120 | it's not, it's not doing what I was told. If I could do Ctrl button twice, it would do something with the cursor I haven't seen so this February gap here |
| 87 | 00:17:45,120 --> 00:17:52,470 | we've traded down into it. And this down close candle. As I mentioned we want to see a support price and look to see if you can expand if it does. If it goes |
| 88 | 00:17:52,470 --> 00:18:06,960 | above here we want to see it run into that 4077 level as long as we're above the new week of Linga this morning beside with being bullish, we would want to see |
| 89 | 00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:21,510 | Dollar Index fail to go higher in order to trade lower and I was asked multiple times how do I add those charts on the bottom we click this little button up |
| 90 | 00:18:21,510 --> 00:18:36,960 | here in the compare symbol drop down menu comes up and I go to Dixie click on new pin over here and I change it to candlestick you can use a line basis but he |
| 91 | 00:18:36,960 --> 00:19:08,730 | might use it to actual price action to one another so you can give out people asking to see so so we want to see Dollar Index take out itself side here and |
| 92 | 00:19:08,730 --> 00:19:26,130 | allow for us to expand to the upside and we would want to see this is all just tapering off somebody told me to buy it you shouldn't be doing anything with |
| 93 | 00:19:26,130 --> 00:19:28,170 | your paper trading. |
| 94 | 00:19:51,720 --> 00:20:07,980 | NASDAQ masks a little bit of a wildling this morning. So we have this a small Little run about this short term here. What Yes. And that's, that's really |
| 95 | 00:20:07,980 --> 00:20:26,010 | looking for you to have Southside here, between the road as well extend it through here, watch and see how it reacts more that, again, is in your notes on |
| 96 | 00:20:26,010 --> 00:20:38,160 | a day like this. This is because of the calendar being what it is. We have Fed Chairman next few days testifying during a farm payrolls week. So that is going |
| 97 | 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:47,790 | to be a very, very difficult week to navigate. And there's no shame in saying that, you know, I'm sure there's going to be people out there to run services |
| 98 | 00:20:47,790 --> 00:20:57,900 | sell things and they're going to say after that weekend, it was an easy week. I'm telling you, and honestly it's going to be a hard week because everything |
| 99 | 00:20:57,900 --> 00:21:13,260 | that stacked against us as traders is indicating such so on a one minute chart notice that we have not seen that lower low with this well here with Yes, just |
| 100 | 00:21:13,260 --> 00:21:33,720 | go back to NASDAQ again see how we've gone below here so this relationship between NASDAQ finding its way lower wer es hasn't done so to now relatively |
| 101 | 00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:47,670 | speaking, the leader should everything move to the upside is being indicated with ES in relatively stronger and the dollar index still looking like it wants |
| 102 | 00:21:47,670 --> 00:21:48,870 | to take on Samsung |
| 103 | 00:21:54,450 --> 00:22:04,710 | had a question or so will I be trading advice at this year? Yes you will see me trading predominately trying to teach you first but yes you'll see me entering |
| 104 | 00:22:04,710 --> 00:22:14,940 | trades yes you'll see me pyramiding trades yes you'll see me hitting targets in yes I have something special to share with you in December us |
| 105 | 00:22:27,990 --> 00:22:37,470 | so of all these candles here they've consecutively all damn close which is equivalent to a five minute down close candle and on top of the second but |
| 106 | 00:22:37,530 --> 00:22:48,900 | notice how we went from the opening of this candle drove it out in time here which is also lead to another discount array which is what a volume unbalanced |
| 107 | 00:22:48,900 --> 00:22:58,890 | one of the balances where we have a separation of any candle or candles because it can be more than just to where there's no average overlapping of the bodies |
| 108 | 00:22:58,890 --> 00:23:08,820 | the bodies have to overlap or at least meet if they don't meet or overlap then that means that there is a volume and it's more likely to see price create |
| 109 | 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:20,760 | another return to that level. Preferably you want to see a body laid across that that's how I like to see it but in a fast market you don't need that so so far |
| 110 | 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:34,680 | Dollar Index is still finding difficulty getting down below its intraday low we've still not done much in terms of personally so how would I coach you on |
| 111 | 00:23:35,010 --> 00:23:44,940 | utilizing a day like today not really know what we're looking for expected not just talking about after the fact you want to wait the first 30 minutes and then |
| 112 | 00:23:44,940 --> 00:23:56,070 | treat inside that 10 o'clock out okay and then study what that first macro will do between 950 and 1010. Now, macro again is algorithmic people call some market |
| 113 | 00:23:56,070 --> 00:24:05,100 | to run for liquidity or run for an inefficiency usually by then at the market hasn't done much that usually will give us them the tipping of the hand what it |
| 114 | 00:24:05,100 --> 00:24:09,450 | will likely do going into the lunch hour or being 11 o'clock. |
| 115 | 00:24:22,650 --> 00:24:36,990 | Look at this low here it is high. Halfway between this low this high, one standard deviation is here negative one. I want to see does it have the |
| 116 | 00:24:36,990 --> 00:24:48,360 | willingness to try to get to this level here. I want to see ultimately try to gravitate towards this level here. But we have to measure how much distance and |
| 117 | 00:24:48,780 --> 00:24:59,700 | how much speed at which we see in price getting to this level here. How we trade at this level, if at all indicates how we will trade once we get into the rest |
| 118 | 00:24:59,700 --> 00:25:13,920 | of the world. Press here. One of the hardest things you're going to contend with as a trader is the impulse to want to do something. You want to do something, |
| 119 | 00:25:13,980 --> 00:25:23,190 | okay? And doing something when you don't know what you're looking to engage with. What is it you're trying to speculate on? What's the what's the premise of |
| 120 | 00:25:23,190 --> 00:25:35,310 | why you're even trying to trade with it? Or any day. And it needs to be clear, it needs to be rooted on strong foundations, why price should even do anything |
| 121 | 00:25:35,340 --> 00:25:42,480 | looking at this, there's really nothing except for the fact that we've had our initial first few minutes trading down into a fair value yet that was on a five |
| 122 | 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:54,090 | minute chart. Which was this one here, we outlined, we traded down to it here. But look at how we're behaving at the highs. Is this a market that's shown a |
| 123 | 00:25:54,090 --> 00:26:03,960 | willingness to want to expand aggressively after it's taken the short term high up, where there will be what buy stops? So by stop stressing about the short |
| 124 | 00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:14,490 | term high here have been engaged gates multiple times here, not just once, two times, and has it shown any willingness to want to break off and start running |
| 125 | 00:26:14,490 --> 00:26:25,440 | high, not as of yet, hasn't shown a willingness to break and reject that high is like a turtle suit, false breakout and want to collapse below this very rager, |
| 126 | 00:26:25,740 --> 00:26:36,540 | not as of yet. So this is where it's very difficult for me as a metric educator, to make you understand how that impulse for you to want to do something. And |
| 127 | 00:26:36,540 --> 00:26:45,090 | then the first run in the morning, when you see that, if we're not part of a Friday, I've had haven't said clearly, this is what we would be wanting to do. |
| 128 | 00:26:46,140 --> 00:26:55,560 | It feels like you've been cheated from a move. And that's fear of missing out. And that's that goes away this year, because you're going to see how to be well |
| 129 | 00:26:55,590 --> 00:27:04,440 | in better control of yourself in your impulses as a as a speculator in trading. Now, look what I'm watching here, I'm seeing how price is making another attempt |
| 130 | 00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:13,380 | to make a higher high, but I'm observing down here on $1 index is that same thing occurring with lower prices on the dollar. Because they both should be |
| 131 | 00:27:13,380 --> 00:27:23,790 | dancing together. It should be like this perfect symmetry between both of them. If the ES is spreading its wings higher. The dollar index should be indicating |
| 132 | 00:27:23,790 --> 00:27:38,820 | what risk on by hosting lower prices in dollar index. Are you seeing that yet in dollar down here? No, it's a stagnant meaning one. We're in a very lethargic |
| 133 | 00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:47,880 | opening range. Opening ranges, the first 30 minutes of trading from 930 and 10 o'clock, it's always going to be the same way, it's never going to be morphing |
| 134 | 00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:55,860 | into something else, the opening range is that, okay, and where we open in that opening range is what we're going to talk about. Right now we're showing |
| 135 | 00:27:55,860 --> 00:28:04,650 | electronic trading hours as shown by this little tab down here at age, you click on that you can see it says electronic trading hours. During the first few |
| 136 | 00:28:04,650 --> 00:28:18,990 | minutes at the opening bell at 930. You want to have a reference of where we were last time we closed. So this is what we had here on Friday. That's where we |
| 137 | 00:28:18,990 --> 00:28:30,600 | close this day session, Virtual Trading Session numbers. And then we have what we opened up here, rallied up. We've already shown what we've ran that by side, |
| 138 | 00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:40,680 | but we have not seen what confirming it Dollar Index doing what the dollar index has not made the lower low as we would expect it to do it here indicating what |
| 139 | 00:28:41,130 --> 00:28:53,280 | it's likely to want to pull back down into this opening range gap. Now the opening range gap is always at the 930 opening bell. And that's the difference |
| 140 | 00:28:53,280 --> 00:29:03,930 | from where we opened here. The very first opening price to where we closed. So that opening range would be defined by this. You can do this with rectangles, |
| 141 | 00:29:03,930 --> 00:29:18,990 | you can do it with lines, it's a matter of personal choice choice of voices let me know not too much more. So this is the this is the opening range gap. Okay. |
| 142 | 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:29,250 | That is not new day. New Day opening gap. New Day opening gap is the difference between the closing price of 5pm. And the opening price is 6pm. New week opening |
| 143 | 00:29:29,250 --> 00:29:38,760 | gap is the difference between last Friday's closing price and Sunday's first opening price. That's the new week opening. Okay, so there's three specific gaps |
| 144 | 00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:52,890 | that I teach, you'll learn more, but those are the differences in where they are what they are. But this is the opening range gap occurs at 930 Every day. Not |
| 145 | 00:29:52,920 --> 00:30:01,410 | Not that there's always a gap but when there's a separation between where we stopped trading the regular session before that trading day When we look at in |
| 146 | 00:30:01,410 --> 00:30:04,560 | this one, that's the wage gap. |
| 147 | 00:30:12,030 --> 00:30:21,540 | So let's go back into electronic trading hours, and add that range here back into our charts that we will be able to refer to it in electronic hours on the |
| 148 | 00:30:21,540 --> 00:30:35,820 | chart, let's change it. It's probably not pretty for you, but it's working for me. Alright, so now we have the opening range gap showing on our electronic |
| 149 | 00:30:35,820 --> 00:30:50,910 | trading hours chart again, that's down here. All this is free. In addition, obviously, to get that real time data, which is what I'm showing here, but you |
| 150 | 00:30:50,910 --> 00:31:01,260 | can toggle through your charts, either on a delay basis, and be able to see what I'm showing. But there's nothing nothing indicating like a trade, there's no |
| 151 | 00:31:01,260 --> 00:31:10,950 | trade that would have been formed by now. There's no entry here. Nothing. And one of the things that you'll see many times being asked of me in comments and |
| 152 | 00:31:11,190 --> 00:31:20,040 | tweets that come to me directly to me. And by way of messages on trading view that you can't see obviously, but they're usually these things are here or up |
| 153 | 00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:34,470 | here rather. The The question is, how do I have a trust in Herbalife fear, or not fear of missing a moon, because I know what I'm looking for, which is kind |
| 154 | 00:31:34,470 --> 00:31:45,780 | of like the whole point of this year with you and I together real time in real time data is this. There's no There's no impending doom, there's no emergency, |
| 155 | 00:31:46,110 --> 00:31:55,470 | there's no rush to get in and do something right now. Because if I don't do it right now, I'm going to miss the big move, there's always moves and that comes |
| 156 | 00:31:56,010 --> 00:32:04,560 | interesting that the things that you're learning, they repeat, and even if there is a move that takes place that's really nice and clean, which we haven't seen |
| 157 | 00:32:04,590 --> 00:32:17,070 | any indication of yet. It doesn't matter if you didn't participate in or not, it matters not that you've missed it. Because that trade is one of many of them |
| 158 | 00:32:17,070 --> 00:32:27,840 | that will will be forming in the entirety of your career as a speculator or as a student of the market. You're gonna see lots of movements in the price action |
| 159 | 00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:35,850 | that you weren't participant to there isn't a trader out there that is in every move you can't be you have to sleep you have to eat you have to spend time with |
| 160 | 00:32:35,850 --> 00:32:52,530 | your family you get ill like I was last week I couldn't I couldn't do much at all so you have to give yourself permission and watching this wick does it |
| 161 | 00:32:52,530 --> 00:33:03,030 | respect that and press down into the sell side here we're gonna make another attempt to go higher dollar index looks a little softer here so in my mind if |
| 162 | 00:33:03,060 --> 00:33:05,760 | the dollar was gonna go lower it would need to do it in here now |
| 163 | 00:33:18,030 --> 00:33:19,680 | down here is the dollar index |
| 164 | 00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:51,510 | okay so we have Dollar Index approaching its sellside liquidity pool and again this is I don't usually do this I do it educating and doing the examples you can |
| 165 | 00:33:51,510 --> 00:33:59,670 | see me doing it while recording trade executions and such. I'm trying to tell myself and remind myself to annotate things on the chart as I'm talking to help |
| 166 | 00:33:59,670 --> 00:34:08,130 | you see what it is but this is where the sell side is referring to when I say dollars. Look my kid wants to reach down to a cell site it's this low down in |
| 167 | 00:34:08,130 --> 00:34:12,840 | cell site is cell stops resting below relatively equal. |
| 168 | 00:34:39,570 --> 00:34:58,770 | So as of right now, we've been trading for 22 minutes and not much has happened yet. Which is again, one of the things that you learn by tape reading for |
| 169 | 00:34:58,770 --> 00:35:06,150 | months, not just one When we can think, Okay, now I'm gonna go in here and demonstrate because I gotta be doing something. Trade with a small Live account |
| 170 | 00:35:06,150 --> 00:35:16,110 | and I won't be willing to trade. Northern gonna be learning by doing that is how to be a fear, be fearful of losing, and be emotionally attached to the outcome. |
| 171 | 00:35:16,140 --> 00:35:22,470 | That's what that's what trading with a live account even with a small amount that is before you knew how to tree before you before you know how to read the |
| 172 | 00:35:22,470 --> 00:35:29,460 | marketplace, that's what that does. And you might touch anything different. They're giving you bad advice, period. And the story is exactly how it's a |
| 173 | 00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:37,740 | perfect recipe to make you afraid of trading to make you afraid of the next setup, even when you take a losing trade. Because you have not properly |
| 174 | 00:35:37,740 --> 00:35:48,420 | conditioned yourself or desensitize yourself the outcome of the trade was by trading with live money, when you don't have trade consistently. You prepare |
| 175 | 00:35:48,420 --> 00:36:01,320 | your mind to be fearful of the outcome, which is the number one task as a trader is to overcome that fear, you got to remove it. And this is what you do it, it's |
| 176 | 00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:09,150 | just how you do it, you study price action to the point where it's boring to seeing the setups. And you also condition yourself knowing what it's like in the |
| 177 | 00:36:09,510 --> 00:36:18,840 | times where it's not likely to run off and do a big move that you would feel regretful that you weren't a participant. So what I'm watching is I want to see |
| 178 | 00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:29,100 | how we react should price trade below this low here for the sell side on dollar, and how we take this high. Or if they keep that high in place. |
| 179 | 00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:49,380 | Market symmetry stance. If we take this low over here out on dollar, then everything is bounced. This is symmetrical market. So the mark would have to |
| 180 | 00:36:49,410 --> 00:37:00,720 | really make a move, have any of serious momentum to kind of get things moving this month, otherwise, it's probably going to treat him as listening. |
| 181 | 00:37:13,140 --> 00:37:26,280 | Let's hypothetically refer to our economic calendar. And you're welcome to look at that. at your leisure, you can do it now. Tomorrow morning, and on Wednesday |
| 182 | 00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:37,530 | morning, the Fed Chairman Powell is testifying. At least that's my calendar says so because of that. There's a lot of folks that have their hands in their |
| 183 | 00:37:37,530 --> 00:37:47,910 | pockets right now. And they're just gonna wait. We're gonna wait and see how the chips fall over the next two days. Now gamblers, okay, high energy, caffeine |
| 184 | 00:37:47,910 --> 00:37:53,700 | junkies, they're out there always trying to do something in the marketplace, they're chomping at the bit, they're gonna tell you Yes, is when you want to |
| 185 | 00:37:53,700 --> 00:38:02,940 | trade. That's when you want to gamble. Because you don't know the influence of what the markets going to do in the same people that will tell you that, but |
| 186 | 00:38:02,940 --> 00:38:11,610 | usually, they usually have really bad performance on those days. And they make it public. So you can see, it's not a matter of me making a conjecture here, |
| 187 | 00:38:11,610 --> 00:38:27,630 | it's pretty well documented. And those individuals that are interested in learning how to control themselves, be measured in their reach into risk. They |
| 188 | 00:38:27,630 --> 00:38:37,890 | don't rush in these environments to sit back and wait. Because it's the first mouse that gets clipped by the mousetrap. It's the second males that comes up |
| 189 | 00:38:37,890 --> 00:38:50,190 | and gets the cheese. You don't want to be the first males to just let the market tip its hand. We have plenty of time, plenty of time over the month or this week |
| 190 | 00:38:50,220 --> 00:39:02,070 | over the course of this year to see amazing price runs. But you're seeing that there are certain price rooms that are not personally interested. And you can't |
| 191 | 00:39:02,070 --> 00:39:09,180 | appreciate that I just say well, I'm looking for low resistance liquidity on signatures, that how does that even mean? That's what you're learning? You're |
| 192 | 00:39:09,180 --> 00:39:17,940 | learning what it's like to be in high resistance. It would be one thing to say okay, I'm only going to sign on and do live streams in low resistance liquidity |
| 193 | 00:39:17,940 --> 00:39:27,990 | run conditions. Okay, that you'll see me call the market, it'll run right off into my targets. It'll barely have any drawdown from where I'm calling, but you |
| 194 | 00:39:27,990 --> 00:39:36,510 | learn nothing from them. Because you will not know how to identify what does it feel like? What does it look like? Were the conditions that present high |
| 195 | 00:39:36,510 --> 00:39:43,050 | resistance liquidity runs, I see several people. I'm sure it's because they don't watch everything. We're looking at everything. We're listening to the |
| 196 | 00:39:43,140 --> 00:39:52,860 | Twitter space I've done in the past where I've gone through and mentioned what the characteristics are that leads to a high resistance liquidity one condition, |
| 197 | 00:39:52,980 --> 00:40:06,450 | which is yes, the markets moving around. Yes, the market can go to targets. But those can be shins I opt out of, I don't want to participate in those days. And |
| 198 | 00:40:06,450 --> 00:40:16,200 | you're going to learn to participate in those, only to get an appreciation for what it's like when you're not in them. And when you're not in a high resistance |
| 199 | 00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:25,590 | liquidity run condition, which means in simple terms, where the market just quickly wants to run from one pool of liquidity to the next, or one premium |
| 200 | 00:40:25,590 --> 00:40:34,800 | array to discount array opposing it, and it does does it efficiently it does it quickly, it doesn't mess around, like what you're seeing here, this is all high |
| 201 | 00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:44,670 | resistance, liquidity conditions, the market is in no hurry. Okay, In plain terms you want to write in your journal. In high resistance liquidity run |
| 202 | 00:40:44,670 --> 00:40:58,290 | conditions, the market is in no hurry to get to an opposing discount, or premium array. Period, because liquidity or inefficiency is encapsulated by that idea. |
| 203 | 00:40:59,970 --> 00:41:10,830 | Whereas in an environment like a low resistance, liquidity run, it's in a hurry, very quickly to get to where it wants to go. And that's what I'm training us to |
| 204 | 00:41:10,830 --> 00:41:19,830 | I teach my students to look for in price action. And it helps filter out the environments that most likely will give you choppy days where most traders get |
| 205 | 00:41:19,830 --> 00:41:29,730 | beat up. You look at social media, look at live streamers, look at Twitter, Discord, rooms, whatever. Invariably, on the days that I'm teaching you that |
| 206 | 00:41:29,730 --> 00:41:38,490 | it's going to be high resistance. We're, we're reserved, we're not in here, trying to push push, push, push, push, we're being very selective in what it is |
| 207 | 00:41:38,490 --> 00:41:48,630 | we're expecting in price action. But the predominance in social media will be shown by them reflecting on their poor performance. I got chopped up the day, I |
| 208 | 00:41:48,630 --> 00:41:56,130 | got beat up the day would have crappy day would have crappy market would have crap. It's not that it's crappy. Okay, the markets not crappy. It's just you're |
| 209 | 00:41:56,130 --> 00:42:03,990 | in a condition. That's high resistance. And unless you've been trained to observe it in such a way, you can't appreciate it. |
| 210 | 00:42:09,090 --> 00:42:19,650 | I'll give an example. What high resistance is in this in this very moment here? We've had Yes, trade down to our five and if we have a gap here, which entered |
| 211 | 00:42:19,650 --> 00:42:29,670 | into what what what did you enter into when it dropped here, what was it really doing was trading them to sell side liquidity sell stocks below here, who would |
| 212 | 00:42:29,670 --> 00:42:38,880 | have a stop stop there. Anyone that has been trying to go long, and it starts to move here, they're gonna put their stop regular, who does that? Retail this, if |
| 213 | 00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:45,120 | they're going to be using a stop loss, that's you're going to do because they're afraid you want to change your stop loss to what, what's the books and educators |
| 214 | 00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:54,120 | at all time. Put your stop loss at breakeven. I don't teach you that. Eventually, it will get there. But it needs to go to first partial and it needs |
| 215 | 00:42:54,120 --> 00:43:07,440 | to expand through for that to occur. We're not in a rush to move to stop loss. We rely on partials to do the most heavy lifting. It's not important for you to |
| 216 | 00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:17,100 | move your stop loss too early. Because you're not going to know where to put your stop loss in the beginning, which is the reason why I teach this style. It |
| 217 | 00:43:17,100 --> 00:43:27,450 | buffers and provides a cushion for you to allow experience to dictate when you as the speculator using your model. When are you going to move your stop loss? |
| 218 | 00:43:27,810 --> 00:43:39,390 | When are you going to start reducing the risk with your stop loss? When will you move it to breakeven because every trader is going to grow at their own pace, my |
| 219 | 00:43:39,390 --> 00:43:50,160 | teaching style with doing that is helpful because number one, it takes the worry out of worrying about that stop loss, the stop loss is being paid to do a job. |
| 220 | 00:43:51,480 --> 00:44:04,590 | If the price hits it, it's been paid to do what remove you from more risk. So you've already paid it good money. If it needs to do its job it's paid. So don't |
| 221 | 00:44:04,590 --> 00:44:11,850 | worry about getting something if you're getting stopped out, you did something wrong as a trainer doesn't mean your methods failed, doesn't mean that you're |
| 222 | 00:44:11,850 --> 00:44:21,180 | flawed logic. It doesn't mean that you are terrible trader, or that it's going to fail in perpetuity. Going forward, it just means that that transaction, you |
| 223 | 00:44:21,180 --> 00:44:30,300 | made a human error, misguided judgment and you failed on one transaction. It's a flat tire going to work. It's all just cost of doing business, you're gonna have |
| 224 | 00:44:30,300 --> 00:44:43,290 | it but we're not looking for price. Simply just to run my favorite and move remove risk entirely. What we're doing is we're studying when we're in a trade. |
| 225 | 00:44:44,130 --> 00:44:53,760 | We're waiting to see price get to an opportunity for us to take something off. And there's so many people out there in this industry that have a pretty good |
| 226 | 00:44:53,760 --> 00:45:01,500 | sized following. I mean, not a lot, but they have pretty good fallen in they constantly harp on the fact that Taking partials is the stupidest thing in the |
| 227 | 00:45:01,500 --> 00:45:11,550 | world. And I've never understood that argument because you don't know if your model and your execution is going to yield a profitable exit, if you're only |
| 228 | 00:45:11,550 --> 00:45:21,300 | accepting your final target at Terminus, and that's it, there's nothing else, it's all or nothing. And as an educator, it would be foolish of me or anyone |
| 229 | 00:45:21,300 --> 00:45:29,670 | else that's trying to teach something like this to say, hold for your full target or nothing at all. Number one, it's not encouraging when you get stopped |
| 230 | 00:45:29,670 --> 00:45:34,980 | out, when you don't know how to do what you're doing. And you don't see anything, especially if you get something that could have allowed you to take |
| 231 | 00:45:34,980 --> 00:45:45,150 | something off. That's a partial, that's like your, your, your white belt, okay? When you open up a trade your white belt, and then when it allows you to take |
| 232 | 00:45:45,150 --> 00:45:51,960 | something off, where's your there's your green belt, or your yellow belt? Then your second partial, and it's your blue belt or your brown belt, and then you |
| 233 | 00:45:51,960 --> 00:45:59,400 | get to your term is that your black belt? Okay, you've arrived on that one trade, your next trade guests are all back down to a white belt again. So you |
| 234 | 00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:09,660 | have to do, unfortunately, with the Western mind requires a lot, which is that belt system in martial arts, which really isn't a big thing in the Asian |
| 235 | 00:46:09,690 --> 00:46:18,240 | culture. They don't have that many belts, okay. But Americans, we have to have a reward. We can come with a tree. You know, Pat, on the back of your head, you |
| 236 | 00:46:18,240 --> 00:46:28,470 | did good. You've been paying your monthly dues. You've showed up to class. So here you go. Here's another new belt color. But and when you're trading, you |
| 237 | 00:46:28,470 --> 00:46:42,240 | want to have a place to take something off because of partial has never a partial profit has never ever, ever failed in making money. He's got 100% Strike |
| 238 | 00:46:42,240 --> 00:46:58,260 | rate. That's perfect trading folks. partials pay every single time. But you don't know. And the people that bloviate about how parcels are not good. You |
| 239 | 00:46:58,260 --> 00:47:07,980 | don't know they don't know if their next trade or the one they're in right now. Waiting for full target is going to go there. You don't know that. So you're |
| 240 | 00:47:07,980 --> 00:47:18,750 | opening yourself up for full risk, whatever the initial risk was only hoping to do what reduce the risk, but never take anything. So think about what goes on in |
| 241 | 00:47:18,750 --> 00:47:31,050 | trading. If traders that are in retail mindset theory. I'm watching to see if we expand to the upside here, just dollars broke here. So this should start to |
| 242 | 00:47:31,290 --> 00:47:43,110 | gravitate up into that and we go clean that I'll come back to this, I haven't finished the point I'm trying to make the the idea of taking something off |
| 243 | 00:47:43,350 --> 00:47:55,110 | partially, you are paying yourself, you put yourself in the charts, you spent time emotion, energy, mental equity, stressing. And when the market is presented |
| 244 | 00:47:55,110 --> 00:48:02,700 | an opportunity for you to take something off and get paid, are you going to work half the week. And illness takes you out the rest of the week. And tell your |
| 245 | 00:48:02,700 --> 00:48:09,660 | boss listen, I couldn't finish the whole week. So just keep what you paid me would have paid me for the few days I came in because I didn't do I didn't give |
| 246 | 00:48:09,660 --> 00:48:18,930 | you my full week. So I don't know you're not owe me anything. Who's gonna do that? Right? But if you listen to these people in this industry tell you that |
| 247 | 00:48:18,930 --> 00:48:32,400 | partials are stupid, don't ever do it. Their results are going to tell you that what they're saying is just denial. They're they're not getting full targets, |
| 248 | 00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:42,330 | they're getting stopped out and losing a lot more than he would if you just take partials. I had illustrated this many times, even in my tape reading two weeks |
| 249 | 00:48:42,330 --> 00:48:51,240 | ago, you know, where I wanted to see the market go to because it's been very fickle. Right now the markets are very difficult. It hasn't, hasn't nothing to |
| 250 | 00:48:51,240 --> 00:49:01,620 | do with there's no algorithm or whether they're changing, it just means that the market is very, very fickle. It's not wanting to move. It's being constrained. |
| 251 | 00:49:04,980 --> 00:49:12,750 | Because of that, if it was not for me saying this is where you would take a partial this is this is a partial here, note your chart, say this is a |
| 252 | 00:49:12,750 --> 00:49:23,370 | screenshot partial here. I'm conditioning you to do what you're trying to learn how to do, which is do what Prophet. See you want which is what the books are |
| 253 | 00:49:23,370 --> 00:49:33,600 | teaching and all these other Yahoo's on social media, they'll say hold for your target, or you don't have conviction about your model. No, my model says, Get |
| 254 | 00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:43,170 | out with money. Get out where I can take money, where it offers it to me. If your model says I'm always right, or I get nothing if it gets stopped out, |
| 255 | 00:49:43,200 --> 00:49:51,960 | that's stupid to me. And it should be stupid to you as a listener who wants to put all the time open themselves up to the risks and when they had an |
| 256 | 00:49:51,960 --> 00:49:58,290 | opportunity to pay like right now this will be a perfect opportunity. If you had gone long on that fear that you got here or treated into this damn close candle |
| 257 | 00:49:59,550 --> 00:50:06,660 | in it This movement here, that's five handles, this would be a perfect opportunity, even though it hasn't hit the new week opening gap, this would be a |
| 258 | 00:50:06,660 --> 00:50:15,660 | perfect opportunity to do what take a partial. Because you don't know, if a bomb is going to drop somewhere, or some craziness goes off in somewhere in the |
| 259 | 00:50:15,660 --> 00:50:26,280 | country or the world that causes this to reversing go harshly the other direction, you don't know that. I don't know that. So when I educate my teach, I |
| 260 | 00:50:26,280 --> 00:50:36,930 | teach my students not to be worrisome, or worried about that stop loss, it's there to do its job. Your focus is watching does it go to a level that allows |
| 261 | 00:50:36,930 --> 00:50:48,330 | you to do what get paid, if you can get paid. That's the that's that's what makes your bottom line go up. Not being perfect, not that your trade goes to |
| 262 | 00:50:48,330 --> 00:51:00,420 | target, the new partials taken, that is such a hard task for a new student or new traders to arrive at. So it makes no difference whether or not you know, the |
| 263 | 00:51:00,420 --> 00:51:10,980 | way I teach and the way I teach you as a trader, it matters not if your targets are reached, ultimately, because you're trying to do what add more to your |
| 264 | 00:51:10,980 --> 00:51:19,410 | bottom line. And when the market presents these opportunities to do that, unless you take a partial the market is not going to do it for you. And there's been |
| 265 | 00:51:19,410 --> 00:51:27,270 | many times and you've seen it a few weeks back, where I openly gave you my limit order where I thought I was going to see an exit and the spread between the bid |
| 266 | 00:51:27,270 --> 00:51:37,500 | and ask on s&p did not let my limit order, Ted, the actual height of a candle was one of my little ones. And it pulled back against me and not be on my final |
| 267 | 00:51:37,710 --> 00:51:49,710 | balance of one contract. You don't know You don't know if your target is going to hit. But when the market is presenting a billboard sign flashing saying here, |
| 268 | 00:51:50,220 --> 00:51:57,150 | here's some money. Here's some money right here, all you got to do is scale out something that you are in a position of, let's see, you don't want to do that. |
| 269 | 00:51:58,080 --> 00:52:02,340 | Because greed. And I'm teaching you how to manage greed |
| 270 | 00:52:03,630 --> 00:52:12,570 | by taking something off at logical positions in places in reverse. And by doing that over time you condition yourself and remove the whole necessity in your |
| 271 | 00:52:12,570 --> 00:52:26,820 | mind right now you think I have to be right? I have to be right. If I'm right, down with a traitor. No, no, you're a good trader. If you manage risk and you |
| 272 | 00:52:26,820 --> 00:52:37,800 | stick to rules and you place profits on that bottom line when it's made available to you. Targets are just the best case scenario. There's nothing |
| 273 | 00:52:37,800 --> 00:52:47,520 | absolutely nothing that states that mine yours or anybody else's in terms of targets are ever going to be reached. We don't know that we're submitting to the |
| 274 | 00:52:47,520 --> 00:53:07,200 | idea that likelihood but nothing's for certain especially today in these markets these markets are extremely difficult. So when we drop below these relative |
| 275 | 00:53:07,200 --> 00:53:21,000 | equal lows here that sell stuff being hit, also trading into what they feared I go to my five minute chart, but what what else was it dropping into? Opening |
| 276 | 00:53:21,000 --> 00:53:32,250 | range gap. Now showing you the difference between where we traded and closed on Friday here, that's Friday's close. And this is where we opened up this morning |
| 277 | 00:53:32,340 --> 00:53:45,180 | at 930. That opening range gap. Okay. We opened here, the trading down, trade down into it. It can't have a complete closure of the gap. It can do a half of |
| 278 | 00:53:45,180 --> 00:53:57,090 | closure. Or it can do one quarter of the gap. What did it do here this morning? One quarter. It could have went to the half didn't do it. It showed what started |
| 279 | 00:53:57,090 --> 00:54:08,220 | stacking up price and showing a willingness to do what electronic trading I said because we want to see a trade up into this area here. We want to see down close |
| 280 | 00:54:08,220 --> 00:54:15,930 | candles support price. Remember I said it incorrect. I said we want to see price support down close candles as of no more specifically, we want to see down close |
| 281 | 00:54:15,930 --> 00:54:27,300 | candle supporting price. We seen the fair value gap here. The short term high here is taken. It trades back down into a down close candle which is what |
| 282 | 00:54:27,300 --> 00:54:38,250 | potentially a bullish order block. Does this support price? The mean threshold was at the midpoint of that down close candle is price being supported in that |
| 283 | 00:54:38,250 --> 00:54:49,890 | level there. I don't need to draw anything you visually see it? Yes it does. At the same time we were looking for what in the dollar index. The dollar index we |
| 284 | 00:54:49,890 --> 00:55:05,580 | were looking for that Southside liquidity pool and we want to see price we want to see price To move lower through this low. If it does this, that means it's |
| 285 | 00:55:05,580 --> 00:55:18,450 | going to cause more risk on your school and it's going to allow for ES to trade up trade up into what the next new week opening gap next week opening gap is up |
| 286 | 00:55:18,450 --> 00:55:35,070 | here. So for you 70. So we don't need 4077 to be traded to why why? Because we had already outlined a level before reaching that with our Fibonacci that will |
| 287 | 00:55:35,070 --> 00:55:46,140 | indicate that that is a fair place to expect a partial be taken in not have to see that level be taken out or treated to this is the magnet on price action |
| 288 | 00:55:46,140 --> 00:56:00,240 | this this range up here between 4077 and 4084 even. But because we're below it, the first threshold is what the low of the previous new week opening gap was not |
| 289 | 00:56:00,240 --> 00:56:08,940 | previous but the next one in terms of relationship to where we are in price action in the next month here. So |
| 290 | 00:56:17,250 --> 00:56:22,440 | just want to go through I'm looking at my other charts, I've been talking about this one here and I haven't much time to reflect on the other ones |
| 291 | 00:56:34,200 --> 00:56:34,770 | are you here? |
| 292 | 00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:52,470 | Can you see me? I know you probably some of you probably think I'm running adventure. There's nobody standing next to him is his son's out there. Not that |
| 293 | 00:56:52,470 --> 00:56:58,680 | it's a big deal. But I know there's people out there don't leave my son's actually standing here. Can you say hello, camera Hello, hello, hello, say |
| 294 | 00:56:58,680 --> 00:57:05,220 | hello, top when I'm talking to Hello Scott deeper voice and it was like a line. |
| 295 | 00:57:10,590 --> 00:57:22,470 | So now because we're we're trading right now from that fear of a gap here. And as I mentioned, we want to see the down close candles support price, we see that |
| 296 | 00:57:22,470 --> 00:57:31,530 | here. I'm going to annotate the five minutes bullish order block. And I'm gonna drop down into a one minute chart. |
| 297 | 00:57:37,440 --> 00:57:43,890 | Now some of you that are new, or some of you that are very young or impatient, just want to be doing something. There are other YouTubers out there that are |
| 298 | 00:57:43,890 --> 00:57:51,180 | literally pushing a button in front of you and go and watch them. I watched them, I liked them. Okay. But if you're trying to learn how to read price |
| 299 | 00:57:51,180 --> 00:58:01,320 | action, the way I do it, and the way I teach my students the way they're making big money with it. This is how you do it. There is no other way. There is no |
| 300 | 00:58:01,650 --> 00:58:12,630 | video that I can produce. There is no book that I'm going to be able to write a chapter or chapters. I could do 20 books. Unless you are seeing it happen real |
| 301 | 00:58:12,630 --> 00:58:23,250 | time in explaining what it looks like. You won't understand it. And static charts or hindsight, even Market Replay isn't this isn't the same, because you |
| 302 | 00:58:23,250 --> 00:58:31,080 | have the benefit of knowing when you have Market Replay and why Market Replay reports when people do back testing in a show other equity curve and stuff |
| 303 | 00:58:32,040 --> 00:58:43,170 | that's all form fitted, you have the benefit of knowing where is this? You watching this have no idea where these candles are painting. But I'm drawing |
| 304 | 00:58:43,170 --> 00:58:50,460 | your attention to specific things, why it should do certain things and what I'm measuring it against. And I don't show any indicators here. But I'm looking at |
| 305 | 00:58:50,460 --> 00:59:00,810 | the relationship between the dollar index and data of the ES and I'm also looking at the other charts that are across eight monitors in front of me. And |
| 306 | 00:59:00,810 --> 00:59:07,350 | I'm really relating the information that they're presenting to me in relationship to this as well. But look at the difference between a price run |
| 307 | 00:59:07,350 --> 00:59:16,050 | like this. Yes, we had to run to the fear that we went down inside of the opening lunch. Yes, we had a displacement of the short term home. Yes, we were |
| 308 | 00:59:16,050 --> 00:59:24,180 | watching the bicep does it want to expand? Does it want to go through that? It was stalling here. And then we had to take our attention to what the dollar |
| 309 | 00:59:24,180 --> 00:59:35,280 | index we were watching and monitoring the dollar index everything became focal to dollar does dollar want to go down below. Its hola which was then again this. |
| 310 | 00:59:37,140 --> 00:59:45,840 | This low here. We've gone through that. What were we looking for a willingness to go through it and not have any interest in going back? We want to see a drive |
| 311 | 00:59:45,840 --> 00:59:56,310 | down into if it does that. Then we can trust that this new weak opening gap will still be a drop in liquidity but do we just simply buy it and hold for the trade |
| 312 | 00:59:56,310 --> 01:00:07,020 | to it? You can if you want to be like everybody else in your tree Reading with stress, when you're not really versed, yet, as a speculator versus the order |
| 313 | 01:00:07,020 --> 01:00:17,340 | block, down close candles are supposed to do what support price it does. So every down close candle doesn't make it an order block. But if it trades down |
| 314 | 01:00:17,340 --> 01:00:30,930 | into it, we want to see it do what trade not below the mean threshold, which is the middle of the range of this candlestick. It trades down to here, here, and |
| 315 | 01:00:30,930 --> 01:00:38,310 | then we start to rally, we come back down and touch it again. I mentioned while we were trading just like this in this chaos, okay, it should expand higher |
| 316 | 01:00:38,340 --> 01:00:49,350 | gravitating towards this new weak opening gap. Why? Because I took your attention down into the dollar index. Excuse me, we've already hit the 4077. |
| 317 | 01:00:49,590 --> 01:01:02,520 | Look at the high right here. In the upper left hand corner, this candle is high is exactly that low 4077. So 4077. So we want to watch and observe, does it |
| 318 | 01:01:02,610 --> 01:01:13,890 | gravitate to the consequent curtailment, which is the midpoint between the low the new week opening gap in the high the new week of this alone right here. Done |
| 319 | 01:01:14,160 --> 01:01:26,130 | 80% your trade should be off. So partial should have been taken in here and 80% off you then at that time. At that time, your stock could roll to breakeven or |
| 320 | 01:01:26,130 --> 01:01:36,090 | something better than breakeven. And it's up to you as to what that would be, in my opinion, your stop should be just about below midpoint of this range of price |
| 321 | 01:01:36,090 --> 01:01:49,830 | action. Equilibrium, we'll be right about here. So your stop loss will be here for the remaining 20%. Now everything I just outlined, probably bored a lot of |
| 322 | 01:01:49,830 --> 01:02:00,060 | you that were impatient that just want to see something spectacular. But I would have cut my own arm off in 1990s to have someone outline what I just outlined to |
| 323 | 01:02:00,060 --> 01:02:12,660 | you looking for what it is I'm specifically aiming for in price. What do I trust to know that price is going to continuously drive to that level? What factors |
| 324 | 01:02:12,660 --> 01:02:26,100 | are my way now? What am I looking for? What do I not want to see in price action and everything that would support the idea is inside price action standard |
| 325 | 01:02:26,100 --> 01:02:26,610 | indicator |
| 326 | 01:02:33,270 --> 01:02:46,350 | so now let's take a quick look at these lows here we're gonna look at that in the NASDAQ. So the low form at 930. |
| 327 | 01:02:55,830 --> 01:03:10,350 | We're gonna lower low here, just look at the volume. The doubt. Don't treat the doubt, but use it for s&t. So here's 930. So what do we see there? See that |
| 328 | 01:03:10,350 --> 01:03:12,240 | well, slow, we're here |
| 329 | 01:03:17,550 --> 01:03:31,560 | waiting to see if my machine show my cursor. So this low here in relationship to that, well, we have a higher low and down. And yes, we have a lower low |
| 330 | 01:03:31,980 --> 01:03:47,040 | comparably soon as the trades interfere regular. So this fair Baghdad, we talked about that real time. And we want to see it indicate to us even though we've |
| 331 | 01:03:47,040 --> 01:03:58,170 | taken up eyesight here. At that time, when we're in a slow market, a slow market is a market that is predisposed to have adversities because of the economic |
| 332 | 01:03:58,170 --> 01:04:10,740 | calendar. In plain terms. Fed Chairman Powell is going to talk tomorrow, Tuesday morning and on Wednesday. Because of that there's a lot of traders and money |
| 333 | 01:04:11,010 --> 01:04:20,910 | that's not being put to risk yet. That means they're not trying to speculate. Because of that the markets gonna have generally the tendency to create small |
| 334 | 01:04:20,910 --> 01:04:32,280 | ranges, small fluctuations in price action. And you want to be very nimble and not try to marry the idea of a market this blasting off and having 120 handles |
| 335 | 01:04:32,310 --> 01:04:43,740 | up 420 handles down, they'll likely have a big move today is not likely. Whereas tomorrow because of his test of witness testifying, that invites the opportunity |
| 336 | 01:04:43,770 --> 01:04:57,570 | for market makers to exaggerate price delivery. So we expect big movement tomorrow in the 10 o'clock hour. A lot of volatility in the 10 o'clock hour on |
| 337 | 01:04:57,570 --> 01:05:10,560 | Wednesday. And on Tuesday By the afternoon today, since this morning is pretty much in my opinion done, I would look for, again, a very similar small type of |
| 338 | 01:05:10,560 --> 01:05:22,320 | range movement. And I will tip my hand as to what I think might happen on Twitter. I will be doing a live session in the last hour. But I want you to do |
| 339 | 01:05:22,320 --> 01:05:35,460 | this homework assignment. And again, this is going to seem completely absurd. But I promise you, it helps, it helps to understand where you are in your |
| 340 | 01:05:35,460 --> 01:05:48,810 | understanding and learning. But I want you to paper trade the ES and trade with I don't care how big of a size you make. The purposes is you want to draw that |
| 341 | 01:05:48,810 --> 01:06:00,240 | account from 150,000 of paper trading account, you want to drop it down $3,000 Today, try not to go more than 3000 Get as close as you can to 3000 Is that way |
| 342 | 01:06:00,240 --> 01:06:16,110 | your account should reflect around $147,000. Once you have that, your your assignment is before Friday's close, you have to get that 250,000. But you |
| 343 | 01:06:16,110 --> 01:06:34,620 | cannot you cannot drop down to 40 Sorry, 144,000. You can't go there. Okay, you can lose more than just can't drop down to 144,000. If you hit high 4000, |
| 344 | 01:06:34,620 --> 01:06:45,180 | anytime you failed, do not be afraid to fail. The whole purpose is this is as a baseline. It's a baseline measurement, because it's at the beginning of the |
| 345 | 01:06:45,180 --> 01:06:54,540 | year, we've only been for a few weeks doing this, in the midpoint of the summer, before we get to November, which is when we end in the mentorship that we're |
| 346 | 01:06:54,540 --> 01:07:05,070 | doing here every day. I will do it again. And you're going to see the ability that you have in November that you don't have right now. And you might have a |
| 347 | 01:07:05,070 --> 01:07:11,520 | measured improvement. The second time we do it halfway through, I don't know what exactly that's going to be. But I'm going to give you an assignment to do |
| 348 | 01:07:11,520 --> 01:07:25,980 | the same thing. Do not be afraid, don't be innovative, if you hurt yourself, doing it in the paper trading and you go down below 4000. Log it that you failed |
| 349 | 01:07:26,280 --> 01:07:35,430 | and have no Shaman. And then you're going to compare what you do the second time we do it in a couple of months. And you're probably going to notice something |
| 350 | 01:07:35,430 --> 01:07:44,040 | totally different, which is what you would expect, right? If you've learned and know more, you'll be able to do it better. But I'm purposely choosing this week |
| 351 | 01:07:44,040 --> 01:07:53,250 | because it's hard. Exactly how the real world trading is going to be you're going to feel like you want to chase big movement, you're going to see other |
| 352 | 01:07:53,250 --> 01:08:00,600 | people talk about there's going to be movement because the Fed chairman is talking. They all want to be part of these big volatile days. But there's big |
| 353 | 01:08:00,600 --> 01:08:15,570 | volatile days bring what max loss days. So how do I answer your question of how do I come back from drawdown? How do I overcome fear of losing it? How do I |
| 354 | 01:08:15,660 --> 01:08:25,200 | navigate when I'm down? What do I do to fix it while I'm teaching. But you have to ruin yourself here in your paper trading account. That way you have it, you |
| 355 | 01:08:25,200 --> 01:08:34,950 | see it. And then you have an experience of trying to fix it based on what you know right now versus what you'll see. Halfway through this year, when we do the |
| 356 | 01:08:34,950 --> 01:08:44,070 | second baseline measurement of your understanding, you might fail the second one too. And there's no shame in that. But I promise, the majority of you won't fail |
| 357 | 01:08:44,070 --> 01:08:53,070 | that third one, you're gonna know exactly what you're looking for. You're gonna know exactly how to do it, how to engage it. And you will have conquered the |
| 358 | 01:08:53,070 --> 01:09:03,660 | whole fear of drawdown. You won't worry about trying to get it back real quick. Notice I didn't say create a pseudo $3,000 drawdown and then try to get it back |
| 359 | 01:09:03,660 --> 01:09:12,960 | today. I didn't say that I said this week. That's the proper mindset of correcting drawdown not I hurt myself. I need to fix it right now. I'm |
| 360 | 01:09:12,960 --> 01:09:19,680 | embarrassed I'm ashamed and hope nobody asked me what my results were today because I couldn't be honest and tell them because I'd be embarrassed that |
| 361 | 01:09:19,680 --> 01:09:28,500 | someone would say your your scrub, can't trade or whatever, because you did something human. You made a mistake. You did something you lost your mind. Every |
| 362 | 01:09:28,530 --> 01:09:37,500 | every trader loses money. Every trader loses money every trader does it wrong. These are my concepts and sometimes I try to finesse it. I try to bring my own |
| 363 | 01:09:37,740 --> 01:09:47,490 | ego into it sometimes and think I'm gonna outperform on stuff in an enhancement class, okay, that's normal. It's going to happen to you too. There is no perfect |
| 364 | 01:09:47,490 --> 01:09:56,280 | trader out there. There's no perfect system. There's no perfect anything. Anything new that is good. placed in the hands of human being and non human. |
| 365 | 01:09:56,580 --> 01:10:10,230 | Obviously I was sick, okay. The amount of a I am a real person. But placed in the hands of a human being, the frailty of our humanity will produce substandard |
| 366 | 01:10:10,230 --> 01:10:21,630 | results. And you have to right now come to grips with it. And you treat your trading education with a new result and permitting you, as the student as a |
| 367 | 01:10:21,630 --> 01:10:30,810 | trader in development, to be fallible, to make mistakes, you're going to blow it, you're going to hurt yourself, you're going to do dumb things, you're going |
| 368 | 01:10:30,810 --> 01:10:39,840 | to look at the market expect it's gonna go higher, and it won't, it goes lower and you didn't, then you didn't participate in them. So how do you avoid |
| 369 | 01:10:40,020 --> 01:10:49,680 | regretting that or chasing it, knowing that the next moves will come? See, that's what is missing from most of every trader out there that's on social |
| 370 | 01:10:49,680 --> 01:11:00,600 | media chasing people like me, following me, you're waiting for me to drop a breadcrumb. You're watching other live streamers do amazing. Pushing the button, |
| 371 | 01:11:01,050 --> 01:11:12,270 | you're taken to picking the risk on in front of everyone, and making money, average deal respect. But I'm not trying to do that with you, I want you to be |
| 372 | 01:11:12,270 --> 01:11:21,720 | an independent thinker. And there's nothing wrong with still watching because I'm an independent thinker. And I watch other live streamers that do well. I |
| 373 | 01:11:21,720 --> 01:11:32,070 | watch other live streamers, crash and burn, I don't sit in their comment section or their chat room and troll them. I'm just observing their reaction to their |
| 374 | 01:11:32,340 --> 01:11:42,270 | decisions. And I'm trying to see how they perform as the traitor I don't care or even subscribe to any of the methodology they use, even if it is profitable. I |
| 375 | 01:11:42,270 --> 01:11:54,060 | don't have any affinity for any of that. But I take all those experiences by watching traders and watching the reactions of other folks that are in those |
| 376 | 01:11:54,390 --> 01:12:04,740 | chat rooms. And and allows me to number one, build lessons for all of you. Because I'm basing it on something that I already anticipate, by watching |
| 377 | 01:12:04,770 --> 01:12:12,300 | traders that don't have a lot of experience. They want something to occur in price, they want to manifest their expectation and they want to impose their |
| 378 | 01:12:12,300 --> 01:12:21,990 | will. And that is unfortunately, not how this is one. The business is one by having an understanding about what is likely to occur, and then looking for |
| 379 | 01:12:21,990 --> 01:12:31,860 | evidence to support that idea and submitting to it, even if it's uncomfortable. And you have to submit to Him out of time. And time being 1030. Now, it hit our |
| 380 | 01:12:31,860 --> 01:12:42,570 | new week opening that we traded down into our opening range gap which is shaded in that. I don't know what they call it. What would you call that? A color, like |
| 381 | 01:12:42,570 --> 01:12:44,910 | a new color like an orange. |
| 382 | 01:12:46,590 --> 01:12:57,000 | I don't know. It was called punched hand where that opening range drops down into that. And until a fair value gap and clearing relatively equal lows here. |
| 383 | 01:12:57,480 --> 01:13:09,900 | At the same time that the Dow was not willing to make what that lower low comparably. So this is an SMP divergence. So it reflects what accumulation of |
| 384 | 01:13:09,930 --> 01:13:19,830 | lungs. But you can't just simply take it on its own, you have to start weighing out the risk on risk off, which is like the rocket fuel behind your trades. If |
| 385 | 01:13:19,830 --> 01:13:29,790 | you're going long on es, or going long on NASDAQ, you want to see that dollar index going lower, you do not want to see the dollar index rally, you can see it |
| 386 | 01:13:29,790 --> 01:13:42,330 | consolidate, it can consolidate and the markets can still see the index futures move. But they're going to be what quickly corrected at a later time when that |
| 387 | 01:13:42,330 --> 01:14:03,150 | dollar starts moving. Dollar weave is a wonderful instrument to measure if your trades going to be extremely efficiently, quickly delivered in terms of your |
| 388 | 01:14:03,150 --> 01:14:13,200 | target. If it is not in support of which would be the opposite direction. This entire run here from that fear Baghdad up to here. If we look at the dollar |
| 389 | 01:14:13,200 --> 01:14:26,460 | index, it should be lower. It has been but now look what we're seeing with the dollar index. See how we're coming off the lows here. Come off the lows here to |
| 390 | 01:14:26,460 --> 01:14:36,900 | train up in this city so far balanced by time efficiency. Retail sees this as what support broken here now it should act as resistance. Right? I don't |
| 391 | 01:14:36,900 --> 01:14:49,380 | subscribe to that. I just think it's too myopic. The fact that we're in here, we might trade up the consequent curtailment of a failed lower low here on the |
| 392 | 01:14:49,380 --> 01:14:56,730 | dollar index and then consolidate a little bit going into watch. That's how I would interpret it. That's how I would expect it. Why because I don't think |
| 393 | 01:14:56,730 --> 01:15:05,670 | there's a lot of movement that would be reasonable for reasonable to expect today because of what we're expecting to see delivered with Fed Chair Powell |
| 394 | 01:15:05,670 --> 01:15:15,390 | tomorrow in the morning session. So if you haven't already noted your calendar, or looked at it, that's something you want to do on the weekends before the |
| 395 | 01:15:15,660 --> 01:15:25,710 | trading week even begins. Don't just look at what the calendar is going to be on Monday. Look at the entire weekly calendar. Where are the big heavy stones in |
| 396 | 01:15:25,710 --> 01:15:35,580 | terms of high impact or medium impact news, Jarvis is the fetcher gonna be talking. Because if you have those types of things, it's going to dictate how we |
| 397 | 01:15:35,580 --> 01:15:45,000 | have the weekly range delivered to us is going to dictate how the daily ranges are formed, are they going to be one sided are they going to be slow and high |
| 398 | 01:15:45,000 --> 01:15:54,510 | resistance like this is. So this is not a low resistance liquidity run, even though it performed like we were outlining. And it's done so nicely. It just |
| 399 | 01:15:54,510 --> 01:16:03,390 | takes a whole lot of time to get there. And I'm not trying to teach you impatience. But the things that you're looking for through impatience right now |
| 400 | 01:16:03,420 --> 01:16:12,720 | is you're limited in your understanding, the very thing that you're looking for is a real quick sudden price move that gets you right to your target in your out |
| 401 | 01:16:12,720 --> 01:16:22,560 | that way, you don't incur a lot of time holding risk. I understand that. That's exactly why I went into my analysis and studied these types of sensors, they |
| 402 | 01:16:22,560 --> 01:16:33,540 | situations conditions, because I, as a young man was impatient, extremely impatient. So I wanted to be in trade that ran away in my favor, got to my |
| 403 | 01:16:33,540 --> 01:16:41,580 | targets quickly enough, got out of the trade, so I didn't have to have any risk. And then I had to recuperate. Because it was very stressful for me, I'm running |
| 404 | 01:16:41,580 --> 01:16:47,820 | 1000 scenarios in my mind, what if it hits my stop? What if it doesn't go to my target? What happens if it just sits here and doesn't move tomorrow, because I |
| 405 | 01:16:47,820 --> 01:16:58,800 | was holding trades overnight as a commodity trader. So it was a very daunting task for me because it doesn't fit my personality, I make decisions really |
| 406 | 01:16:58,800 --> 01:17:06,480 | quick. And you might not feel that way as IT person won't have that personality or that characteristic as a person, you might be a little bit more slower in |
| 407 | 01:17:06,480 --> 01:17:14,100 | terms of making your decisions in this trade may be perfect for you, you might look at and say this is exactly what I'm looking for. Great. That's wonderful. |
| 408 | 01:17:14,310 --> 01:17:26,220 | I'm not trying to say that you can't find trades in high resistance, liquidity run signatures. You can I don't like them, because I want to be in trades that |
| 409 | 01:17:26,220 --> 01:17:34,830 | tear off, right from my entry and run right into my partials run into my target. And I'm done with them. Thank you. That's That's what I like. I like that quick, |
| 410 | 01:17:34,830 --> 01:17:46,650 | sudden, immediate feedback. It makes it exciting. It makes it fun. It's almost like a treasure hunt. I'm looking for that. I mean, we can see these types of |
| 411 | 01:17:46,650 --> 01:17:54,960 | moves every day, these types of moves are not hidden from you. I mean, obviously you can see it, it's it's been outlined this morning to you. But it's not the |
| 412 | 01:17:54,960 --> 01:18:07,650 | same as a low resistance. low resistance means there's nothing causing resistance for speed. Whereas this because of the economic calendar. And we have |
| 413 | 01:18:07,650 --> 01:18:16,710 | two Fed Chairman testing, testifying events on Tuesday and on Wednesday, and it's the first day of the week. There isn't a whole lot of excitement right now. |
| 414 | 01:18:16,980 --> 01:18:30,930 | So you have to do what allow the market to seek fair value. Fair Value is yes, shown with my fair value gap. Yes, that's fair value. But from a fun level, Fu, |
| 415 | 01:18:30,930 --> 01:18:45,600 | nd large fund level, larger traders than us deeper pockets, billions of dollars. Okay, those chairs are going to be induced, they're going to be introduced, be |
| 416 | 01:18:45,630 --> 01:19:01,110 | introduced to a level in price that is intended to inspire new trade, New Order Flow to remove liquidity or replace liquidity, which is in the form of minute |
| 417 | 01:19:01,110 --> 01:19:11,490 | opening gap. That's why I taught it when I first started a couple weeks ago in February was the first time I ever made to talk to anybody else. This is premise |
| 418 | 01:19:11,490 --> 01:19:21,480 | here, okay? You're really supposed to have this range, divided into four quadrants. And I asked a sock guy asked me, Can we split this into octants? And |
| 419 | 01:19:21,510 --> 01:19:31,140 | no, you can do whatever you want to do. I split it into fours, first quarter, a third quarter, and the heart so it's high low midpoint in the midpoint between |
| 420 | 01:19:31,140 --> 01:19:41,460 | that. So it's four quadrants. It's not quarters theory. I saw that actually. Oh, he's teaching course there. He's just renamed. Listen, you guys gotta learn. |
| 421 | 01:19:41,640 --> 01:19:55,080 | Okay, study what I'm doing. Place that stuff. You think it is right next to what I'm doing? And you'll see it's totally not the same thing. It's not. So when we |
| 422 | 01:19:55,080 --> 01:20:03,630 | have these low resistance, liquidity runs what does that mean? So you're probably still having a hard time understand what that looks like, what am I |
| 423 | 01:20:03,630 --> 01:20:13,680 | referring to? high resistance is from the Faraday gap and the order block. It does it did rally to where we were looking for. That's wonderful, great. Log it, |
| 424 | 01:20:13,800 --> 01:20:27,150 | it is is what it is. Okay. Eight, low resistance. And what am I mean? What's the resistance factor in what's what's causing said resistance. But what is the |
| 425 | 01:20:27,150 --> 01:20:37,230 | resistance, I'm referring to the resistance in speed. Whenever you watch my trades, and I would annotate them and say to him, Look, I'm looking for speed |
| 426 | 01:20:37,230 --> 01:20:47,940 | and distance. That's indicating what I'm looking for a low resistance price room. Is not that because I'm using the term resistance that I'm expecting it to |
| 427 | 01:20:47,940 --> 01:20:56,220 | trade to a resistance level and therefore go lower. That's not what I'm saying at all. What I'm saying is, in a high resistance liquidity run, the price will |
| 428 | 01:20:56,250 --> 01:21:06,450 | still gravitate to where I'm thinking it might go to, but it can go up, retrace a lot, consolidate, go up, retrace a lot, consolidate and go up retrace a lot go |
| 429 | 01:21:06,450 --> 01:21:18,480 | sideways go up. That is high resistance, not because it's being resisted because of specific levels, is being resisted in the scope of price, speed delivery, the |
| 430 | 01:21:18,480 --> 01:21:30,720 | delivery speed, that's what I'm looking for, I want to see speed. If the level of speed is in the trade behind me in that in that speculation, then it's a low |
| 431 | 01:21:30,720 --> 01:21:43,980 | resistance resistance is low in terms of the speed, there's nothing limiting the movement from this order block here to here. In terms of time, a low resistance |
| 432 | 01:21:43,980 --> 01:21:54,450 | liquidy run would have been from here in two or three candles is there. Verse versus all of these. So that hopefully will help you understand the difference |
| 433 | 01:21:54,450 --> 01:22:03,600 | between because you can trade profitably in high resistance liquidy runs, you can, I just prefer not to, they're just they're very boring to me, I don't like |
| 434 | 01:22:03,600 --> 01:22:13,140 | them. I like going in, like looking for trades like a word search, okay, or a crossword puzzle, I'm looking for the ones that's going to be very quick, sudden |
| 435 | 01:22:13,140 --> 01:22:22,920 | have a lot of magnitude and to speed this ones off. It's exciting, it makes your trading really fun. Whereas this for a new student, you probably watch all this |
| 436 | 01:22:22,920 --> 01:22:34,410 | stuff, and some of you are probably hoping it was gonna feel the idea of sitting here watching these candles pain, it feels like watching grass grow. But it's |
| 437 | 01:22:34,410 --> 01:22:43,680 | not like that when you're trading in low resistance liquidity runs. It's fast, it's excitement, there's a lot of price movement, it's just, you'll see the |
| 438 | 01:22:43,860 --> 01:22:45,720 | trust, trust me break now. |
| 439 | 01:22:45,750 --> 01:22:54,480 | It's we're still in this really crummy kind of market condition. But it'll loosen up. And when it does, you will absolutely know by definition, because |
| 440 | 01:22:54,480 --> 01:23:02,970 | you've seen it then what a low resistance liquidity run feels like and see what it's looks like in your chart, you'll watch it, you'll see how fast it takes off |
| 441 | 01:23:02,970 --> 01:23:12,600 | and speed. It's just like, boom, doesn't waste your time, you just immediately want to go somewhere. And if you're on board, that is so fun. It's so fun. These |
| 442 | 01:23:12,600 --> 01:23:21,900 | types of moves. Yes, while profitable, while delivering two targets that we can seek before they deliver them. That's we're not making an argument against them. |
| 443 | 01:23:22,500 --> 01:23:30,660 | And again, I'm not trying to discourage any of you because if this makes sense to you, and you're comfortable with it, don't let me disparage that because of |
| 444 | 01:23:30,660 --> 01:23:40,080 | me saying I like low risk, because a lot of you like to treat me like a brand. Like you whatever I wear, you want to wear, you know what cologne I want to wear |
| 445 | 01:23:40,080 --> 01:23:47,070 | today, you want to go out buy it. And to me, it makes me a little uncomfortable. As a part of this, I don't want to be a celebrity. And I don't want you to look |
| 446 | 01:23:47,070 --> 01:23:56,880 | at me like that, especially in my trading ideas like whatever I like out of my concepts. Don't try to frame that as yours because then what you're essentially |
| 447 | 01:23:56,880 --> 01:24:05,940 | doing is what I'm trying not to do at you, which is press you into a mode. If I felt that my concept only works this way and at one particular way of doing it, |
| 448 | 01:24:06,180 --> 01:24:18,210 | I would say it only works like this. I don't do that. When I talk about price delivery. I am very dogmatic like that. That's where I am done that. Because if |
| 449 | 01:24:18,210 --> 01:24:28,020 | you trade in line with how I teach how price is going to book, even retail stuff will work. Problem is retail logic isn't going to lean on the things I'm |
| 450 | 01:24:28,020 --> 01:24:40,140 | teaching because they don't subscribe to the idea that there's something controlling price. And that's an argument for another day. But anyway, your |
| 451 | 01:24:40,140 --> 01:24:53,520 | assignment today and then we're gonna close this live stream. Your assignment is to go on your your trading paper trading account. You should have $150,000 in |
| 452 | 01:24:53,520 --> 01:25:05,490 | your paper trading account as of right now. Do not reset. If you go over to the threat Scholten, it is what it is. It's fun login. You're not trying to log the |
| 453 | 01:25:05,490 --> 01:25:12,510 | trades that you use to draw the account down. You're just trying to make the account go down. Now you're probably thinking yourself, well, how can I do that? |
| 454 | 01:25:13,680 --> 01:25:25,560 | Just go in and pick? Do you like gum, do 10 contracts, okay? And go in, put the trade on, let it move against you. Because chances are, you're probably going to |
| 455 | 01:25:25,560 --> 01:25:37,350 | be offside anyway, let it move against you, couple handles, and close it and keep doing that today, until you get down to $3,000. So your account says 147. |
| 456 | 01:25:37,530 --> 01:25:43,680 | Now some of you are gonna say, Well, I'm just going to just set it to 147. What's the point of doing it? The point is, is you see those numbers in that |
| 457 | 01:25:43,860 --> 01:25:54,000 | trade history, just like it will occur in your trading. You can't hide it, if it's in your Live account. Or if your funded account, you can't hide those |
| 458 | 01:25:54,000 --> 01:26:02,040 | things. So you have to be accepting the fact that that's going to happen to you eventually, it will, it will be real drawdown. So you have to do what you have |
| 459 | 01:26:02,040 --> 01:26:12,900 | to get comfortable with seeing it number one, not being afraid of it. And then now you have a task of recuperating from it. How do you get it back, you spend |
| 460 | 01:26:12,900 --> 01:26:25,620 | the rest of this week doing it. So your instructions are to create a pseudo measure consequent encroachment, the next level would be here. So now, because |
| 461 | 01:26:25,620 --> 01:26:35,040 | we hit that level, you want to see this dollar have that lower low, I haven't looked yet. Talk to you didn't not make that really well. So we went through the |
| 462 | 01:26:35,040 --> 01:26:43,140 | consequent punishment, as I said, we're gonna say we probably have a higher low as we have, in an do we consolidate here for the rest of the morning going into |
| 463 | 01:26:43,140 --> 01:26:52,290 | lunch. That's what I would subscribe to on that saying that that's what you should trade on. But that's how I would view this morning. Why? Because the |
| 464 | 01:26:52,290 --> 01:27:04,800 | dollar has not made that higher high. Here in ES with a lower low hasn't met a lower level. So we're higher on this low than that. In a perfectly symmetrical |
| 465 | 01:27:04,800 --> 01:27:17,130 | market, the dollar should be on a lower low, it's not. We have higher highs as that should be met with a lower low in dog, it's not. So that means when you |
| 466 | 01:27:17,130 --> 01:27:24,240 | ever, whenever you see that, this would completely close my trade entirely, I wouldn't have anything else. So we were I was saying earlier, that at that time, |
| 467 | 01:27:24,240 --> 01:27:34,470 | when we hit the 4077 level, we already had potentially a partial taken that 80% of the trade would come off here, meaning what we had 20% remaining. So because |
| 468 | 01:27:34,740 --> 01:27:43,560 | the dollar index has failed to make that lower low here, we're longing to shoot in the morning. So we're going into the 11 o'clock hour. I would be comfortable |
| 469 | 01:27:43,560 --> 01:27:54,360 | taking the trade off here. And even if it went to the 4084 level, I don't care. I don't care. And you want to be conditioned. So that way you don't care either. |
| 470 | 01:27:54,390 --> 01:28:02,940 | Why shouldn't you care, because you would have taken along from here or the order block as I outlined down close candles should start what supporting price, |
| 471 | 01:28:03,300 --> 01:28:13,830 | down close candle support the price rallies up with the dog going lower. Everything is own. Everything being equal. Rather, when we get to the 4077 level |
| 472 | 01:28:14,340 --> 01:28:21,750 | 80% of trade comes off. Why? Because it's still could see weakness on dollar. And you can trade with the consequent person that gets the consequent |
| 473 | 01:28:21,750 --> 01:28:30,600 | encroachment with a higher low. That's a green light for me to say, Okay, I'm done. Now, if we didn't have the Fed Chairman tomorrow and Wednesday, I wouldn't |
| 474 | 01:28:30,600 --> 01:28:46,740 | take 80% off of here. I will take 50% off. And I would take another 25% here leaving a balance of 25% of position that would be true here for me here. So I'm |
| 475 | 01:28:46,740 --> 01:28:56,850 | giving you a lot of theory as to you know, how I internalized price where I take partials, why I subscribe to submitting to price a certain way, what am I |
| 476 | 01:28:56,880 --> 01:29:06,570 | submitting to? What am I evaluating throughout the process of price moving? I've walked you through it this morning. So hopefully, if you found this one |
| 477 | 01:29:06,570 --> 01:29:16,920 | insightful in your video, thumbs up doesn't cost you anything to do that. But if you don't, that's fine, too. I'm still gonna be here doing it. But it's just a |
| 478 | 01:29:16,920 --> 01:29:26,100 | way of, you know, that's your way of applause that you got something that was useful from it. Thumbs down, I really don't care. I don't really see them. I get |
| 479 | 01:29:26,100 --> 01:29:37,650 | a few of them. But we'll see if this was useful information to you if you watched it unfold live here. And it wasn't with live data obviously. Thumbs up |
| 480 | 01:29:37,650 --> 01:29:51,300 | or comment on Twitter with some feedback. You guys are welcome to do that. Let's check real quick with the US versus the US or us 500 versus the yesterday that |
| 481 | 01:29:51,300 --> 01:29:59,550 | wrapped up my discussion. I wanted to toggle back to this and apologize. It's a work in progress. I'm sure I'll be better at this as we go further into the |
| 482 | 01:29:59,550 --> 01:30:10,260 | year. but you can still see the same thing occurring to the left chart is es futures contract that down close candle, supporting price. And of course candle |
| 483 | 01:30:10,410 --> 01:30:19,740 | supporting price. So you still see the same thing, the same elements are there. And then the delivery on the upside. So the question and this last thing, I'm |
| 484 | 01:30:19,740 --> 01:30:29,220 | closing this session. Now, there are folks that are saying, well, we don't see the new equipment gaps, you know, for the CFD, which is the US 500 or us one |
| 485 | 01:30:29,700 --> 01:30:42,480 | USD, if you're trading them, I don't trade these. But you want to refer to where price has the mimic opening gaps on the futures contract, even if you're using |
| 486 | 01:30:42,480 --> 01:30:55,320 | it with delay data, it doesn't matter. When price is trading near those newly gapping gaps, or they're being utilized as a draw for the quantity where price |
| 487 | 01:30:55,320 --> 01:31:07,410 | was trading comparably in the ES chart when it was trading at the new opening gap here, that's how you would do it. So what I mean by that, let's go into the |
| 488 | 01:31:07,410 --> 01:31:09,240 | new opening chart. |
| 489 | 01:31:14,850 --> 01:31:35,490 | Voices stream. So the new opening act that we were outlining here notice how it's coming off that consequent judgment or interest interesting. When we go |
| 490 | 01:31:35,490 --> 01:31:40,560 | back to where this was formed, let's go to a 16. |
| 491 | 01:31:46,110 --> 01:32:00,240 | Okay, so here's the here's the day, which is in January, January 27. To the 29th. Okay, so Friday, 27th of January, the closing price on that Friday, is |
| 492 | 01:32:00,240 --> 01:32:09,540 | what this is here. And then the opening price on Sunday, January 30. I'm sorry, January 29. Okay, that's what I'm showing here. |
| 493 | 01:32:15,210 --> 01:32:32,790 | Okay, so here's Friday, closing price, regulatory mailers and an opening price on Sunday. So what you would do is you would use those very specific candles on |
| 494 | 01:32:32,790 --> 01:32:42,300 | us 500, and use their respective opening and closing numbers, Friday's closing price, and the opening price there. So that way, you're calibrating to us 500. |
| 495 | 01:32:42,330 --> 01:32:51,960 | It's not going to be perfect, folks. And that's the reason why I counsel all of you to try to do whatever you can to get the data for us futures. Even if you |
| 496 | 01:32:51,960 --> 01:33:00,210 | can't trade them. The data itself is useful because you're you're going to be following the logic that I'm teaching you and the CFTC is going to follow what |
| 497 | 01:33:00,210 --> 01:33:10,140 | the futures contract is doing. The futures contract is not referring to the US 500 in trying to keep up with it. It's that's not happening. Okay. The CFD is |
| 498 | 01:33:10,140 --> 01:33:21,000 | trying to keep up with what this market's doing. So your data needs to be derived from this not that of the US 500 or us 100 CFD. So if you're just |
| 499 | 01:33:21,000 --> 01:33:33,990 | trading the CFD and you're not ever referring to the actual futures contract price, you're playing with a you know you're you're trading blindfolded. You |
| 500 | 01:33:33,990 --> 01:33:42,150 | don't have all the details that you need, especially if you're trying to be precise and detail oriented. So it anyway, again, I'm going to close this one |
| 501 | 01:33:42,150 --> 01:33:55,350 | here. And hopefully you guys have benefited from this morning. Hopefully you've learned something. And until next time, be safe |