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ICT YT - 2023-02-25 - Market Commentary

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-02-26 12:59

Outline

00:23 - Risk disclaimer -.

02:18 - Where we are in the grand scheme of things in this market.

05:50 - Where is the body of the candle in the chart?

11:12 - What forms of buy stops will be resting above this level?

16:27 - Daily and weekly charts help you keep your frame of reference -.

22:32 - What’s the next target?

27:19 - What’s going on in the candles chart.

31:56 - Why did the market consolidate inside this high?

34:21 - High resistance vs. low resistance -.

39:56 - When is this trend likely to continue?

45:40 - What’s happening in the market right now.

50:26 - What’s your bias going forward for the week?

56:32 - What’s this rally doing? What’s this wick split?

01:03:12 - Breaking the gap down into quadrants.

Transcription

1 00:00:23,100 --> 00:00:33,600 ICT: just doing an audio check. Just doing an audio check. Okay, we're doing pretty good latency audio check. Okay, we're doing pretty good latency
2 00:01:10,050 --> 00:01:25,740 Alright folks, welcome back, it is Saturday, February 25 2023. So I've already done the check on the audio, so we should be fine. Take a look at this risk
3 00:01:25,740 --> 00:01:26,430 disclaimer 
4 00:01:35,579 --> 00:01:46,379 Alright, so we're looking at the dollar index as our daily chart. And as you go through these charts, there's nothing on it, it's important for you to pause
5 00:01:46,379 --> 00:01:57,119 even though we're doing live streaming, pause the video across the stream. And take a look at what you see in terms of what I teach in conceptual form
6 00:01:57,959 --> 00:02:08,819 waterblocks Fairbury gaps where liquidity would be in your chart should already have it anyway. But it's just for the purposes of new students that come here
7 00:02:09,779 --> 00:02:11,879 and watch the stream later on. 
8 00:02:18,150 --> 00:02:30,210 Alright, and here is where we are in the grand scheme of things. So we've moved from the highs here, in the fall October time period of 2002 came all the way
9 00:02:30,210 --> 00:02:39,750 back down to the sell side here we walked this market pretty much the entire time, I mentioned that we would likely get into this fear of a gap in the form
10 00:02:39,750 --> 00:02:47,160 of a boss out of balance assigning efficiency and hit this order block if we went below this low which is what we were targeting, we need to go on down to
11 00:02:47,220 --> 00:02:58,800 consequent encouragement, which is the midpoint of that gap, which is the difference between this candles Hi, this candles low market credit markets shift
12 00:02:59,100 --> 00:03:13,800 bullish here rallied up came back down bullish breaker which is what's been imitated here. Consolidated traded higher order block, lowest body that one
13 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:22,860 here, send that over hits it rallies volume imbalance trades down until it and worked its way higher. Now. Right away that sounds like a whole lot of talk
14 00:03:22,860 --> 00:03:32,820 about what's already happened. But we have been live real time minute by minute reviews talking about what's going to happen and I've taken your attention to
15 00:03:33,630 --> 00:03:43,920 this area up here. And you can see we're pretty much marching right on up into it. So what's up here that's interesting to me well inside this area here, and
16 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:55,080 we're going to go in tighter with this yellow shaded area in a second but before I do let me make mention of where we are in terms of the range from this high
17 00:03:56,880 --> 00:04:11,280 down to this low here's equilibrium to that range halfway at that point in above that gets a premium. We have this premium fair value gap in the form of a city
18 00:04:11,310 --> 00:04:22,710 sell side and balanced by sight inefficiency, meaning that this one single candle here is down candle that is inefficiently delivered. So should the dollar
19 00:04:22,710 --> 00:04:31,830 mount a continuation beyond this we're just looking at the next near term objective the drawl and liquidity which even through all this period here we
20 00:04:31,830 --> 00:04:42,810 were looking for higher prices. Meaning lower prices for what index futures lower prices for Euro dollar your lower prices for cable POUND DOLLAR. All
21 00:04:42,810 --> 00:04:55,620 foreign currencies lower. Dollar higher stocks lower because this is with dollar rallying. That's risk off. So risk off is dollar rallying higher and risk off
22 00:04:55,620 --> 00:05:08,220 means all assets whether it be foreign currency or index in stocks, they're going to be easier to capitalize on short positions more likely for it to go
23 00:05:08,220 --> 00:05:20,220 lower and reprice lower. So they enter sell programs where the dollar stays in a buy program. If we get above here, and we'll have to see how we get there, and
24 00:05:20,220 --> 00:05:30,120 we could still fail, but I believe in this is where I'm saying that I believe it's still going. But until we ultimately do decisively fail, and I'll let you
25 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:41,370 know, if I think we have, I'm committed to this. As I've been for weeks, we're looking for this level here to be drawn to why inside this area, let's zoom in.
26 00:05:45,390 --> 00:05:56,460 Here's that area read about these two highs, and this is my volume imbalance. And volume imbalance is wherever there is two candles separated by only the
27 00:05:56,460 --> 00:06:07,080 wicks, no bodies overlapping. So the body of this candle has no portion of that candle overlapping with the previous candles body of any, any value, not even
28 00:06:07,380 --> 00:06:20,820 meeting it equal. So if there's ever that forming on the chart, even though there is a wick or tail, below this one, and a wick above this one here, just
29 00:06:20,820 --> 00:06:30,600 because they bridge the gap between the previous candles body and the next candles body formation. That in itself doesn't do enough, it's inefficient. So
30 00:06:30,630 --> 00:06:44,100 the bodies must overlap. Even if it's one touch equally to the previous candles body that's efficient. It's inefficient, if it's only the wicks passing through
31 00:06:44,100 --> 00:06:56,100 because wicks are viewed by the algorithm as a gap. So it's going to do what repriced back to it. We've seen it here. And it left it moving away from it
32 00:06:56,100 --> 00:07:10,410 there. Has there yet been a body overlap this separation yet? No, it's just the wicks. Which is the reason why I said down here and here and author here. Take
33 00:07:10,410 --> 00:07:23,070 your attention here for dollar. It comes up many times as a question my students, even folks that have been with me for a long time. Since I teach a lot
34 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:35,490 with intraday charts one minute, five minutes on very, very small timeframes. Unless you're equipped to work with very quick decision making, it can be a
35 00:07:35,490 --> 00:07:44,310 little challenging, it can be scary, because it doesn't give you a new student, time to see the candle, internalize what it might be, because already now done
36 00:07:44,310 --> 00:07:54,660 for three or four candles and it's moved. So it doesn't give you that benefit of time, like a daily chart, or a four hour or one hour chart where it takes a lot
37 00:07:54,660 --> 00:08:05,070 more time for the candles to complete and start a new one. But you're, you're still looking at price prices, still doing the same fluctuations on the one
38 00:08:05,070 --> 00:08:15,540 minute chart, or if I'm using a five second chart. Price is still updating. marking to market means every little tick fluctuation every new movement in
39 00:08:15,540 --> 00:08:23,550 price, it's doing the same thing, whether you're looking at it on an hourly chart, a four hour chart daily, weekly, it doesn't matter. But the frame of
40 00:08:23,550 --> 00:08:36,900 reference is important. So that way, when you go forward as you're learning how to trade and find the setups. You don't get confused as what timeframe you're
41 00:08:36,900 --> 00:08:45,480 trading in, you're gonna know what setup you're working with him relative to that specific timeframe. So to make things easier, and to cater to the students
42 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:54,180 that are not really equipped to trade in these lower timeframes, not because they're not smart enough, that just don't want to do it, they just don't have
43 00:08:54,180 --> 00:09:05,100 the attitude to stay with a model that's very, very small timeframe. And they want to use their skill set on a higher timeframe because of their work, their
44 00:09:06,180 --> 00:09:15,360 personality. It's just It doesn't fit them to be an intraday trader. So they would have to be a swing trader. And I cater to that and all other approaches to
45 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:22,920 trading using my concepts and or if someone just uses whatever they trade with. Many times they'll come here and they'll get whatever I believe the bias is
46 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:32,820 where the direction is going to go. And then they'll use whatever they like to trade with with that bias. Well, I use a daily chart, predominantly as my higher
47 00:09:32,820 --> 00:09:41,910 timeframe where I'm looking for specific key levels where it should draw to the weekly chart which I have not included in this but I use that as a means of
48 00:09:41,910 --> 00:09:49,380 determining where the range is and I don't have it here because everything I'm going to say here is going to accomplish the method without needing to pull up
49 00:09:49,410 --> 00:10:00,600 the weekly chart. What I look at on the weekend, or if I have plans with my wife and family, they make my schedule formula weekend. If that is the case I'll look
50 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:10,230 at the markets on Friday. But if I have time to do things over the weekend, and my family hasn't made plans for me, then I usually do it Saturday before they
51 00:10:10,230 --> 00:10:23,220 wake up. And I look at a weekly chart and I try to determine what that weekly candles going to do, most likely in terms of distance, magnitude, how big of a
52 00:10:23,220 --> 00:10:31,560 move can we expect and what to reach for on the weekly chart. So without needing to pull that up, I'm just referring you back to this is where I believe we are
53 00:10:31,560 --> 00:10:38,850 going. And you can see we've been doing a pretty handsome job of getting very close to it. And we're going to break down some more details in a few minutes.
54 00:10:38,850 --> 00:10:50,640 But this is where I believe the expansion should be delivered sometime this week, it doesn't mean it's going to open Sunday and be there at this level, it
55 00:10:50,640 --> 00:11:05,490 could it could gap up there. It could gap up there. Or we could have a very low change, nor to a very small change between where we close here on Friday and
56 00:11:05,490 --> 00:11:14,160 where we open. And that's fine, we can come back down in this candle a little bit, I don't want to see a lot. And I'll talk about where I think that is
57 00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:24,540 reasonable. But I still think this right up in here. Because of this volume of bounce, there's no bodies, between the candles. They're not ever touching this
58 00:11:24,540 --> 00:11:40,800 candle at all, anywhere since. And if you look at this hot here in this high here, those are relatively equal. So retail theory, traders that utilize that
59 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:52,770 and support resistance, which I don't do. price goes up to this level here, moves lower, trades up higher again, fall short of this one, but dropped
60 00:11:53,280 --> 00:12:04,440 precipitously away from it, leaving this area to traders and those that like us support resistance ideas. They think that this is a ceiling in price action or a
61 00:12:04,470 --> 00:12:11,370 resistance. And what will be resting above that buy stops, two forms of five stops.
62 00:12:12,030 --> 00:12:20,640 One traders that see this as resistance and they want to buy a breakout. So they're watching this area here. Because if it goes through it, they'll be long.
63 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:33,120 I know it might not fit your appetite for type of entry and such. But there are many traders out there that trade just like that, and some of them make money. I
64 00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:42,030 don't personally subscribe to that view. The other form of buy stops that will be resting above here is large fund positions that are holding buy stops that
65 00:12:42,030 --> 00:12:55,410 will protect our short position. That's predominantly why it would likely go this area here because there's large orders resting, not just little minut
66 00:12:55,920 --> 00:13:06,630 volume that would come through retail traders, the people like you and I, we're not placing astronomical orders, huge amounts of volume coming in based on our
67 00:13:06,630 --> 00:13:18,060 trades. And collectively, we still aren't a significant factor. But large funds are. So the algorithm that I said, I'm trying not to talk like this because it
68 00:13:18,060 --> 00:13:29,790 sounds too dogmatic and it offends a lot of people. So I'll keep the dogmatic perspective on Twitter. But here, price will generally gravitate towards areas
69 00:13:29,790 --> 00:13:40,740 where large fund liquidity would be. And the wonderful thing is, the retail books are pretty much in line with where the large ones are going to put their
70 00:13:40,740 --> 00:13:49,050 stock. It's real easy above old highs and below lows. And wherever there would be a clean level clean level with something like this, where the highs are
71 00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:58,410 relatively the same. So when I first started, I saw things like this. And so while that's resistance, I trusted this go short. And if it went back up here,
72 00:13:58,410 --> 00:14:06,840 like it's still in here, I would think okay, this is probably one of those triple tops, because that's what a book would show. And I don't view that at all
73 00:14:06,870 --> 00:14:16,440 like that anymore. I look at these levels as a means for targeting. And if I can frame a trade that dries up into these levels, that's what I want. But because I
74 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:26,460 do not trade dollar index, write that down in your journal. A lot of people say are you long dollar? Did you short the dollar? I don't trade the dollar. I use
75 00:14:26,460 --> 00:14:39,870 the dollar as a barometer. I use it as a way of determining should I be a buyer or seller of s&p Should I be a buyer or seller of currencies that any currency
76 00:14:39,870 --> 00:14:50,370 other than the dollar if dollars rallying, it's going to drop. That's the relationship with with the currency market. So if I start most of my analysis on
77 00:14:50,370 --> 00:15:01,770 this instrument right here, dollar, it gives me a macro perspective in terms of risk on risk off so it alleviates a lot of the uncertainty that many of you, as
78 00:15:01,770 --> 00:15:11,910 new traders, are struggling breakeven or just frankly, unprofitable traders. You're not incorporating this in your analysis, which is why you're getting very
79 00:15:11,910 --> 00:15:20,310 small movements in price, being trading on these very small timeframes, getting a little bit of movement, and maybe over leveraging, because you don't
80 00:15:20,310 --> 00:15:28,770 understand where the markets likely to go. And if you want to trade with a longer term perspective in mind, it'll also eat and as I'll talk about winning
81 00:15:28,770 --> 00:15:40,050 the lower timeframes, the ability to hold on to the trades longer. And while I'm teaching everyone this year to be actively pursuing five handles, it means five
82 00:15:40,110 --> 00:15:55,560 points, which is 20 ticks. In the s&p, I've lost my train of thought there, because I want to make sure I'm referring to futures I'm so used to talking
83 00:15:55,560 --> 00:16:09,450 Forex, pips. But in terms of trading this year, in your learning, the things I'm teaching you with the s&p in price action, they work in forex, too. So if you're
84 00:16:09,450 --> 00:16:17,190 a long term student with me, I know some of you're kicking and screaming, please talk more about forex, I am talking about forwards. I'm literally talking about
85 00:16:17,190 --> 00:16:25,950 forex, every single time I'm talking about the currencies, when I'm doing live streams, I'm bringing in the POUND DOLLAR, I'm bringing in the Euro dollar, I'm
86 00:16:25,950 --> 00:16:34,680 talking about the dollar index. So it helps you keep your frame of reference where we are in the macro, which is the daily, the daily is going to tell you
87 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:41,430 where we're likely to go, how we're going to get there? Is it going to be a big candle? Is it going to be a small candle? How do we know that I'm going to touch
88 00:16:41,430 --> 00:16:56,640 on that today. But there's a great deal of advantage by using these daily levels and forming your bias on it. So in short, I look at a weekly chart before the
89 00:16:56,640 --> 00:17:06,660 week begins trading on Sunday, whether it be Friday or Saturday, Sunday, I tried to do nothing, it's family day. I look at the weekly to try to determine where
90 00:17:06,660 --> 00:17:19,620 is the likelihood, oh, that weekly candle to expand? Is it likely to expand higher? Or is it likely to expand lower based on whatever that weekly chart is
91 00:17:19,620 --> 00:17:26,040 showing me. In other words, if this was the weekly chart, and this is what I was seeing on a weekly chart, I would say Okay, I think the next weekly candles
92 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:33,810 going to open up and try to gravitate to this area here, which is essentially what I'm saying here. But I don't need the show the weekly candlestick to do
93 00:17:33,810 --> 00:17:47,220 that, because it's being illustrated here perfectly with the daily chart. So the benefit of having this perspective on price action, you're not getting confused
94 00:17:47,250 --> 00:17:57,630 and losing your bearings where you are in price on these lower timeframe charts, because if you are day trading, and scalping intraday, it would probably be a
95 00:17:57,630 --> 00:18:07,950 safe bet for me to say your chart is so zoomed in, you only haven't probably 15 to 20 candles at most. On your screen. You're you're watching every little tiny
96 00:18:07,950 --> 00:18:19,020 fluctuation over a very small sample size of intraday candles. And unless you have these things on your charts, it's going to it's going to surprise you,
97 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:30,000 you'll hear things come out of your mouth like whoa. Or Wow, where'd that come from? Or Whoa, did you see that? You're never hearing me say that. You're never
98 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:39,150 hearing when I'm live streaming, you never hear any surprise. Because I know what I'm expecting to see in price. I'm expecting price to deliver exactly how
99 00:18:40,950 --> 00:18:51,750 I'm expecting price to go where I think my long term analysis leads me to believe that will go which is what I'm showing you here. Okay. So we submit
100 00:18:51,750 --> 00:19:02,280 ourselves to an idea that higher timeframe charts like weekly and daily are going to tell us where the biggest odds are for price getting to a specific
101 00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:11,400 level, which is the number one goal in your analysis. It's not how much can you afford on your next trade? Or how much money I have to make to pass my funded
102 00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:21,780 account challenge. How many trades Can I do it in two days and get my funded account past that that's the wrong thing to be doing. That's the wrong thing to
103 00:19:21,780 --> 00:19:30,240 be doing. The only thing you're doing by doing that is ensuring you're going to fail at it. So the way you pass those challenges the way you find consistency
104 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:40,050 and finding setups that work in your favor is by following what these daily chart PD arrays are indicating. Where is the liquidity? Where are the
105 00:19:40,050 --> 00:19:56,160 inefficiencies? Is there any inefficiency from this high down in here that we will be concerned with where we close on Friday? Yes. This week, we'll talk
106 00:19:56,160 --> 00:20:05,820 about in a second but prior to that, nothing because we have already been pressing into it, which takes your attention to what to an old high. So right
107 00:20:05,820 --> 00:20:17,640 away, before we got up to this level here, I had counseled you to look at three specific levels. One of them being this candles Hi, I'm sorry, as candles
108 00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:27,510 closing price, which is what I teach as my rejection block. Now, that doesn't mean because the title says rejection blocking, if I'm bearish, which I'm not on
109 00:20:27,510 --> 00:20:36,270 this am I have I mentioned any bearishness with the dollar index? Absolutely not. I've been bullish on dollar with the idea that we're going to go up into
110 00:20:36,270 --> 00:20:46,350 this area here. And I just told you in this recording as to why I believe it's going to go up there, the market needs to offer efficiency between this candles
111 00:20:46,350 --> 00:20:57,300 closing price and this candles opening price. So between these two candles, there's unfinished business. So the market will likely it's not 100%, I do
112 00:20:57,300 --> 00:21:08,610 sometimes lose. But my faith in this is that we're going to go up there and lay down a candle that has the body crossing between the the low of this shaded area
113 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:18,390 and the high that shade dairy, it can be higher, it can go above it and come back down and just stop in the middle that's laying a candle body in between
114 00:21:18,420 --> 00:21:28,980 these two price points. That's enough. That's all I would expect. Because we are not even in this area in price. And we're down here where we closed on Friday
115 00:21:29,790 --> 00:21:44,640 that offers range of opportunity. So I have a range between roughly 105 26 to the top of that, which I'm just realized I'm using a PowerPoint so you can get
116 00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:56,520 that range very quickly on your chart. But bottom line is, is we'll just eyeball it and say it's 105 90 Something will say 90. It may not be that but whatever.
117 00:21:56,970 --> 00:22:12,000 105 point 90. So we have essentially, you're better than 50 points for what dollar that translates to more in going short on POUND DOLLAR. It's larger in
118 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:13,950 terms of pips for the euro dollar. 
119 00:22:14,460 --> 00:22:23,160 So it offers downside range potential, shorting those foreign currencies, and we are going to look at Euro dollar in this presentation right after I get done
120 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:36,120 with dollar. So right away, if you look at what I've already shown you here, I've given you a routine. I've talked about what it is you're focusing on. I've
121 00:22:36,120 --> 00:22:46,350 talked about why I believe that we're going up here in detail, even though you've known about to hear all through here all the way up. And now we've
122 00:22:46,350 --> 00:22:55,770 already hit the first objective, which was that rejection blah, if I was bearish. If I was bearish, I would use that price to then look for a
123 00:22:55,770 --> 00:23:03,390 displacement lower. Now please pay attention to what I'm saying. Because I am not saying that I'm looking for dollar to go lower here. But because this has
124 00:23:03,390 --> 00:23:14,790 named a rejection block, I use that if I'm bearish if the market goes up to an old swing high, and it trades to and through, which is that closing price. If it
125 00:23:14,790 --> 00:23:24,090 does that and then shows displacement. What does that mean? A small short term, one minute or five minute candlestick Swing Low is pierced, it does not need to
126 00:23:24,090 --> 00:23:32,730 close below it. And if there's a fair value gap above that, I'll use the 2022 model essentially to get in and go short. That's how that's how I would use the
127 00:23:32,730 --> 00:23:43,200 rejection block if I was bearish. But in this case, because I'm bullish on dollar, and I'm believing it's going to go up here, the rejection block only
128 00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:53,790 acts as a target. It's a option for me to determine, Okay, if dollars reaching that level there, which is when I tweeted it, and we've known this, we've been
129 00:23:53,790 --> 00:24:03,810 watching these price levels for weeks now. Once the dollar hits that, you're gonna be looking at your Euro dollar, you're gonna be looking at your POUND
130 00:24:03,810 --> 00:24:16,920 DOLLAR your foreign currency trade, or your s&p trade. That's short, your NASDAQ trade that you're short, or your dowel trade that you're short, your DAX trade,
131 00:24:17,460 --> 00:24:25,890 whatever you want to name it anything other than the dollar. If the dollar is reaching up in hits this area here, that's probably a good time to be doing what
132 00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:40,860 taking a partial profit because it can go here and then consolidate. Oh, well, look what happened on Friday. All the market movement was pre session. Then
133 00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:50,280 everybody got smacked around. While dollar did what? consolidated? We'll look at that in a couple minutes. But once we get through the rejection block, what's
134 00:24:50,280 --> 00:25:03,210 the next target? Well, we talked about the consequent encroachment, which is the midpoint of this candles wick. This wick is a gap So the markets, the markets
135 00:25:03,210 --> 00:25:14,280 likely to gravitate back to that midpoint of that wick, because if it's a gap, the inefficiency of a gap, the midpoint of that is consequent encouragement.
136 00:25:14,610 --> 00:25:25,560 That means it's, it's consequential as encroaches into the middle of it, middle of what the imbalance between the high and the low of the wick. So we were just
137 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:33,990 a earshot rate below that level, we'll look at it more specifically when we get in lower timeframes. And then that's our next objective. And I'm like, I want to
138 00:25:33,990 --> 00:25:45,630 see it gap at it, or just above it. On Sunday, I'm gonna see a gap above that, and then just continuously press up. Or, you know, if we gap above it, I want to
139 00:25:45,630 --> 00:25:54,990 see it, come back down, retouch it, and then go higher. That's what I'd like to see on Sunday. So that way, now, you know, gun to my head, I'm not ambiguously
140 00:25:54,990 --> 00:26:02,220 saying things, I'm telling you exactly what I want to see. If it's not these things, then I'm doing nothing, I'm sitting my hands in my pocket, doing
141 00:26:02,220 --> 00:26:12,600 nothing. I'm not in a rush to make decisions. I'm not confused, I'm not lost in price action, I know exactly what I'm waiting for. I know exactly what I don't
142 00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:21,120 want to touch. If it's something that doesn't make sense to me, based on my concepts, I'm not going to do anything. You're learning that this year, you're
143 00:26:21,120 --> 00:26:29,370 learning how to do that. And how you do that is what I'm showing you here. And it doesn't have the ability, or I don't have the ability, and the conceptual
144 00:26:29,370 --> 00:26:39,510 ideas cannot be communicated in a very short condensed five minute training video. You can't take this stuff and compress it. You can't, it's too much
145 00:26:39,510 --> 00:26:46,530 bandwidth there needs to be used to cover everything. And if you want to learn how to do this the right way, you want to learn all the details, the subtle
146 00:26:46,530 --> 00:26:53,970 nuances where you're going to fail. Because I've already taught you how to trade, I've already taught you how to look for setups. And there's still people
147 00:26:53,970 --> 00:27:00,180 complaining, I don't know how to do this, because they don't listen to these types of lectures, you have to know why you're doing it. And you have to
148 00:27:00,180 --> 00:27:09,990 understand why you shouldn't do other things. And by having that holistic approach to understanding price action, you'll have a complete tapestry of what
149 00:27:10,020 --> 00:27:20,280 makes the high probability setups and the low probability setups. So our next objective is that one Oh 5.3 For one level. And then beyond that. We have the
150 00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:30,030 wicks high here. So if it's going to go to this level here and go to this wick high, if it's going just to run above this Ojai, and run above this old high
151 00:27:30,030 --> 00:27:39,450 here, doesn't it make sense for the candles to eventually gravitate into that shaded area, which is again, that volume of balance, makes perfect sense,
152 00:27:39,450 --> 00:27:55,890 doesn't it? So by taking all those things together, adding them together in understanding that there's been a lot of talks about w a r, okay, and conflict
153 00:27:55,890 --> 00:28:13,260 in other nations. And that type of thing causes concern, it causes the market to want to do what seek yield, but in a safe haven. So the way they inspire this
154 00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:24,300 is, the market will start pricing higher on dollar, because it's a flight to quality, a safe haven currency. So this is what's causing everyone to be even
155 00:28:24,300 --> 00:28:37,200 more nervous, because they're seeing this go up. I gotta make sure I'm trying to stay neutral in my delivery of this stuff, but it's very hard to because these
156 00:28:37,260 --> 00:28:51,090 relative equal highs are most likely holding a large liquidity pool of buy stops. Anyone that would be long on dollar, it would be in their interest to see
157 00:28:51,090 --> 00:29:05,250 it go up here because they can offer their long position sold to the market to higher priced by interest. So this buyside liquidity over here, that is where I
158 00:29:05,250 --> 00:29:12,450 think we're going because there's a small little bit of a range between this candles low and this candles high. So it's not just this area here. There's
159 00:29:12,450 --> 00:29:18,840 several factors there the fact that we have relative equal highs, there's no bodies in the volume imbalance. And we have a small little separation between
160 00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:29,250 this candles low and this candles high. So while I'm drawing your attention here, it anytime during this week we get into that shaded area. This shaded area
161 00:29:29,250 --> 00:29:38,670 has an additional area I'm watching which is between this candles high in this candle is low. So there's a small little gap there. Okay. So that we know what
162 00:29:38,670 --> 00:29:49,920 happens if it goes above that and it gets really animated. This wicks halfway point which is consequent encouragement. Okay, you also have the implied fair
163 00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:59,610 value gap, which I taught this week or actually introduced it rather you have that occurring here. So you want to take the consequent portion of this wick in
164 00:29:59,610 --> 00:30:10,680 this way that range projected out. If we go through that, man, we're really bullish on dollar. And that's probably a bad sign. That means a lot of things go
165 00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:19,230 down hard. So I'm just tipping my hand to you showing you what I'm thinking longer term out. But right now, I'm only watching these two levels, and then the
166 00:30:19,230 --> 00:30:28,260 volume imbalance, my bias, right now is bullish dollar, everything else bends the knee and goes lower. That's, that's what I'm holding fast to. That's what
167 00:30:28,260 --> 00:30:39,360 we've been following and watching the entirety of February, the entire month of February, we have been long dollar, short, s&p, short NASDAQ, short Eurodollar
168 00:30:39,420 --> 00:30:49,830 short POUND DOLLAR, short everything else. Okay. So with that said, there's a long walk through what I know, but it's how you learn it. Let's take a closer
169 00:30:49,830 --> 00:31:01,770 look in today. Here's the hourly chart here. So here's Friday's action. Unless you were already aware of what we were looking for, which was that rejection
170 00:31:01,770 --> 00:31:09,090 block price down here. And then here is that consequent encouragement of that wick, let me go back up one more time to make you aware of what I'm showing you
171 00:31:09,780 --> 00:31:11,820 the mug. 
172 00:31:16,890 --> 00:31:29,640 So there's three levels there. The heavy dashed line is the rejection block. That's this candles closing price. The dotted red line, that is the consequent
173 00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:37,680 current of this wick and a heavy thick red line. That is the high of that candle wick. Okay, so we know where we're at when we dropped down lower timeframes. So
174 00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:38,640 now with that said 
175 00:31:44,250 --> 00:31:53,160 on Friday, it quickly ran right up to the rejection block got real close to consequent encouragement of that wick. Remember that dotted red line? That's
176 00:31:53,160 --> 00:32:09,720 what that is, and then did what? consolidated? Why did it consolidate inside this high? Right here, the s&p reached an objective. And the dollar failed to
177 00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:21,780 confirm that lower low and s&p, the dollar was not matching that. So that's a US dx or dollar SMT. I'll teach you more about it. You'll see examples of it in
178 00:32:21,780 --> 00:32:34,980 this lecture here. But it's also Friday. So it ran up all pre market. And then didn't do much at all people that were trading. Were getting frustrated. I
179 00:32:34,980 --> 00:32:46,980 watched several live streamers, several live streamers, visually, and audibly share their frustrations with what the market was doing. And these are there's
180 00:32:46,980 --> 00:32:56,550 instances where if you don't really know what you're doing, you can get angry, you can lose sight of what you're trying to do, and lose lots of money, trying
181 00:32:56,550 --> 00:33:06,960 to push an agenda pushing something. And you want to be very careful doing that on a Friday, especially now with all of the things that are going on where you
182 00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:15,630 saber rattling is is the thing right now. So anything can pop off. So it might run real close to this object, isn't it very well could have easily hit the
183 00:33:15,630 --> 00:33:26,130 consequent encroachment, which is that red line up here that thought at the midpoint of that daily wick the fact that it failed to confirm the higher high
184 00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:34,680 and lower low in dollar in s&p, and I'll show you what that looks like. Okay, I'm gonna show you where it occurred, what it looks like in our business.
185 00:33:35,700 --> 00:33:51,540 Because it did that. And also tweeted it I said, note the time. And the dollar index has not confirmed the lows with the s&p, it should have made a higher high
186 00:33:51,720 --> 00:34:04,770 in dollar, but it didn't do it. So because it didn't do that. That's reason and calls for caution. And also the time of day, sets the stage for a lunch
187 00:34:05,070 --> 00:34:16,290 consolidation or reversal. And we'll talk about that in a second. But notice how this really nice sudden ramp up in price this right here. That is very, very
188 00:34:16,290 --> 00:34:28,230 fun. That is a low resistance liquidity run versus something like this. It's going up. But it's met with what high resistance. This is exactly what I'm
189 00:34:28,230 --> 00:34:37,590 teaching you this year to focus on. This is exactly what I teach and taught my private memberships. Okay, when they paid me to join, and they were learning
190 00:34:37,590 --> 00:34:46,200 from me, I was teaching them both high resistance and low resistance but with the benefit of knowing what a high resistance is and when not to trade in it.
191 00:34:46,530 --> 00:34:55,380 When will they form and then where do the low resistance liquidity runs? Where are they where do they exist where they develop in price action? That's what
192 00:34:55,380 --> 00:35:03,300 you're learning this year. Isn't it beneficial, at least visually seeing this? What type of Trade Would you rather be in, if you were trying to be long If this
193 00:35:03,300 --> 00:35:10,470 was any other market, not the dollar, would you rather be buying in something like this, where you're seeing a lot of this back and forth, buying and going
194 00:35:10,500 --> 00:35:18,930 all the way back and forth, back and forth and coming back, probably stopping out scaring you think you gotta get out of it, or buying in this area, in
195 00:35:18,930 --> 00:35:29,310 rallying all the way up. And it's just a straight shot, run. Beautiful, just No, looking back, it's just, it just keeps on driving where you want to go. That's
196 00:35:29,310 --> 00:35:38,430 the type of move every trader wants. This is the stuff that books don't teach you. And until I'm teaching you over the course of the entirety of this year,
197 00:35:38,790 --> 00:35:46,920 because I want you to see lots of examples, you're going to see me talk about how the market is difficult right now, I have no problem or no shame, saying
198 00:35:46,950 --> 00:35:54,210 it's difficult, there's times when the market is difficult, meaning it's difficult getting to where I want to see it go, I can go in and scalp it just as
199 00:35:54,210 --> 00:36:01,860 well. Once you know how to do what I'm teaching this year, you can trade in difficult markets, I prove it on on Twitter, sharing it on Twitter, calm lives,
200 00:36:01,860 --> 00:36:09,690 everybody's taking my tweets and dropping the links on their chart, you can see I'm calling every minute candle, every turning point where it's going, it's
201 00:36:09,690 --> 00:36:21,360 there, you can't deny that you'll be able to do that at the end of the year. You'll have that skill set to do it this year. Because you will know these
202 00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:34,320 movements here coming. And you'll avoid doing these types of days here where it says a lot of chop your forecast when it's going to be choppy when everyone else
203 00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:43,620 on social media is chomping at the bit to get out there and push the button, try to make money, get back some losses. You'll be sitting on the sidelines, just
204 00:36:44,610 --> 00:36:54,660 cool, calm, collected, not worrying about it. And that's exactly what you learn by listening to lectures like this. You want to have very low emotions in
205 00:36:54,660 --> 00:37:01,350 trading. You don't want to be hopped up on goofballs, worrying about where you're gonna get your next adrenaline rush. And that's unfortunately, what
206 00:37:01,350 --> 00:37:08,190 drives a lot of these traders today. They want to get in here because of the excitement. And I want to make money. I don't know why you're here. But these
207 00:37:08,190 --> 00:37:16,710 markets to me, they're vehicles that make money. And if you can't find that is the root cause of what you're doing, you're probably doing this for all the
208 00:37:16,710 --> 00:37:25,890 wrong reasons. So let's go into the 15 minute time frame. So here on the 15 minute time frame, you can see we have a bison unbalanced. So it's on
209 00:37:25,890 --> 00:37:35,040 efficiency, which is shaded here in that little blue box. Okay, and it's this canvas high in this candle is low. Incidentally, if you go down into a lower
210 00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:42,450 timeframe, one minute chart, there's actually a very smaller frame a gap that it's been working inside up all through here. And I'll leave that for your
211 00:37:42,450 --> 00:37:54,390 homework. But that also is where we've dropped back down into just fell short of reaching that one Oh, 5.341 level, which is again, consequent encouragement of
212 00:37:54,390 --> 00:38:07,650 that daily wick, the midpoint of the wick. All of this consolidation in here is what drove traders nuts. This level here is based on this high in that low if
213 00:38:07,650 --> 00:38:16,080 we're bullish. This is where you can pause the video and do this on your own. Not yet. Let me tell you what you're doing. First, you're gonna take your fib
214 00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:26,490 and lay on this low to this high. And you know, look for a standard deviation that gets to this level here, which is consequent encouragement, just below it
215 00:38:27,030 --> 00:38:43,740 or just above it. And if you do that you end up with this Fibonacci LOW to HIGH negative 1.5 standard deviation right there. draw that out in time. There you
216 00:38:43,740 --> 00:38:57,570 go. So when I tweeted to you, when the Dow I'm sorry, about when the dollar was failing to confirm the load that was formed in s&p, once the s&p hit its
217 00:38:57,570 --> 00:39:09,750 objective for real this area here qualified that this was going to most likely be an intraday high. Meaning that we're going to do what consolidate or retrace
218 00:39:09,750 --> 00:39:17,700 back down in to this wick, it could have easily went back down into this here, if we if it was dropping more during the lunch hour into the pm session on
219 00:39:17,700 --> 00:39:26,670 Friday. Why I was expecting that and why I felt confident by tweeting to you and prompting you saying look at the time. And we're getting ready go into the lunch
220 00:39:26,670 --> 00:39:37,860 hours on Friday, New York lunch hours. And it's more likely for the market to enter a consolidation or retrace against the stops. But we're so close to
221 00:39:37,860 --> 00:39:48,930 running through his higher timeframe objectives. What's it more likely to do retrace by late need to retrace to go to that level. As it started marking time
222 00:39:48,930 --> 00:39:59,730 here that is less likely it just means it's going to do what consolidate into close and hold everybody here. And that's what it did. And retraced on all the
223 00:39:59,730 --> 00:40:14,130 other Your assets, euro, pound, s&p, NASDAQ Dow. So we have, we have precision here. But this is also an experience thing you have to know, when's it really
224 00:40:14,130 --> 00:40:25,200 likely to continue. And it's Friday, we've already moved up a whole lot before the 930 opening right in here, right in here, all this movement took place prior
225 00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:37,110 to that. So you're going to miss move, sometimes, if you're only going to train at 930, you're going to miss moves, if you're not trading around 830, you're
226 00:40:37,110 --> 00:40:49,350 gonna miss moves, if you're not trading overnight, and in london session, which is down here. I didn't get to this move, I was sleeping. You're gonna have to
227 00:40:49,350 --> 00:40:59,160 accept the fact that you can't be in every move. And you have to be content with the analysis was on point, no problem, you're gonna miss moves, folks with
228 00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:06,240 cutting it, that's just the way it is. Just like you're gonna lose on some trades and lose money. It's part of the business. It's how it works. Nobody can
229 00:41:06,240 --> 00:41:16,350 be in every swing, nobody. So let's continue on this carnival like atmosphere. So we have the Eurodollar, our daily chart here now start moving along a bit
230 00:41:16,350 --> 00:41:26,550 more quickly, because I don't want this video to be too too long. But right away, you want to pause the video and look at the levels that are important to
231 00:41:26,550 --> 00:41:38,130 you. And then the majority aren't interested in doing that. But for the folks that are watching this video much later on, you can do that on your own. And I
232 00:41:38,130 --> 00:41:42,120 mentioned how when we were bullish on Euro, and bearish on the dollar, 
233 00:41:43,170 --> 00:41:53,550 I mentioned that this was to clean to smooth. And we would like to trade up into this little area here and ultimately get up into this area right there. And as
234 00:41:53,550 --> 00:42:01,260 luck would have it, the market trades up into that level. Beautiful delivery right there. And I know some of you were like, Ah, this is cherry pick, go back
235 00:42:01,290 --> 00:42:11,370 in watch. On this YouTube channel, you'll see me do analysis before that. And I mentioned all this business over here, as dollar went down to our objective
236 00:42:11,370 --> 00:42:22,080 dollar reversed, which would see what you're reversing, it trades lower, this high, low, higher high to a level we were aiming for. And once it breaks below
237 00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:31,230 that low right here, that low is broken there. If it would have did this and came off that that's still a shift in market structure that's bearish, though
238 00:42:31,230 --> 00:42:39,480 because it closed below. Now here's where you take notes votes, okay. If you just binge watching Netflix and chill type attitude with ICT, you're not
239 00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:51,690 learning, you're wasting your time. If we close below the swing like that, you're going to treat that as a breaker. You won't need to think about coming
240 00:42:51,690 --> 00:43:00,750 back up into here in this imbalance. Oh my goodness. Did you just hear what he just said? He just dropped a diamond. Yes, I did. Yes, I did. And we don't all
241 00:43:00,750 --> 00:43:13,320 year long. That breaker gets touched right here. Does it respect it? Yes, it does. And we're what bullish on dollar. And it's trading to a bearish breaker.
242 00:43:14,520 --> 00:43:25,980 So this candle, when it hits, it is going to act as your resistance idea that support resistance theory. You can't just look at every swing high and swing low
243 00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:34,620 and draw a line on and think it's going to act as support or resistance, folks. I mean, I'm sorry. But that's not how it works. You have to have a narrative
244 00:43:34,650 --> 00:43:45,870 around why that specific higher low, should act as resistance. And if you look at every instance, where a pool of liquidity was rated, and then rejected, in
245 00:43:45,870 --> 00:43:56,130 this case, the low before that high was formed. That's a bearish breaker. That's that's logic. That's real logic that is not well, you know, every single swing
246 00:43:56,130 --> 00:44:03,690 high and low, let's put a line on it, you're going to be frustrated just like I was, which is the reason why everybody that uses that garbage loses money. And
247 00:44:03,690 --> 00:44:12,510 they fail, if you believe the statistics, and I think they're accurate. Most new traders in the first 90 days loser account. But what's on the other side of
248 00:44:12,510 --> 00:44:22,560 those losing trades, someone winning, and they're doing what the opposite of whatever whatever they were doing. So you just can't simply look at every single
249 00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:30,510 high and low draw lines on it and think it's going to bring you to riches. It doesn't work that way. You have to have a reason why a level should act as
250 00:44:30,510 --> 00:44:42,210 resistance. Why should it behave for support? And it's on the basis of liquidity. Has it done damage to traders that would have existing orders above
251 00:44:42,210 --> 00:44:55,050 highs or below old lows? Then once that occurs, that's why that's why I call it a breaker. I named the breaker because it broke the backs of everyone that would
252 00:44:55,050 --> 00:45:06,480 have already probably tried to sell short here. It started to drop and then the Rayment re thrown in breaking their what? Future profitable short. That's why I
253 00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:16,410 named it the breaker it's breaking them. And it also does it, it breaks their will, it breaks their courage, they are not going to go back in it. When it goes
254 00:45:16,410 --> 00:45:26,250 down here, they're going to, they're gonna be like a deer in headlights, they're not going to trust anything, because now they have them what demoralized and
255 00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:37,230 they lost money. And retail traders freeze when they lose money, which is again, it breaks their spirit, it breaks their winning position that would have been if
256 00:45:37,230 --> 00:45:46,230 they wouldn't have had to stop right there. They'd be profit right now. And I'm sure there's a lot of traders that were trying to do that in here. Because what
257 00:45:47,850 --> 00:45:55,500 they looked at these highs over here had a line drawn on like I'm having here, but mine was that I identify the buy side, there's orders above that I want to
258 00:45:55,500 --> 00:46:02,910 see it go above those, I don't want to see it go there and act as resistance go down. There's a lot of trades that went in there. And as a hit that let's go
259 00:46:02,910 --> 00:46:13,230 short, put their stop loss somewhere up here. And randomly the market goes right to a level that gave you and the reason for why it should go there. And then it
260 00:46:13,230 --> 00:46:23,070 does the dirty work of going lower. So for Smart Money traders that were not able to get short up here, they get another opportunity they find another bus
261 00:46:23,070 --> 00:46:35,580 stop. Here it is the breaker it comes right back up hits it sell short. Now we're moving lower. So now I have this level here. Resting below that would be
262 00:46:36,150 --> 00:46:53,250 sell stops or sell side liquidity from this high to this low. The midpoint is equilibrium right here. So at that level, and above, we are in a premium. Next
263 00:46:53,250 --> 00:47:01,590 drawn liquidity is this low real orders are resting below that low, what kind of orders sell stops? Why would that be beneficial for the market to trade that
264 00:47:01,590 --> 00:47:13,620 that level there? Because they've already taken by stops here and over here. And we moved sharply lower. So we have to assume internal dialogue is this. We
265 00:47:13,620 --> 00:47:25,770 assume that someone with deep pockets, lots of money in Big Short Positions are holding to get to a level where there's a lot of willing sellers below market
266 00:47:25,770 --> 00:47:36,690 price. And I said that correctly? They want to see the market drop from this height here and go down below this low here. Why would they want that? Because
267 00:47:36,900 --> 00:47:44,580 once the orders that get tripped below this lesson is this candle drops down or the next candle or sometime in the future may not be this week, I could be wrong
268 00:47:44,580 --> 00:47:58,290 right? Below this low once it trades below that every sell stop at that price level becomes a market order to sell at the market. So it's tripping in a rush
269 00:47:58,290 --> 00:48:10,440 of liquidity in the form of a great deal of sellers at low prices. So what do you do when you go out to the store and you see something on sale? And you get
270 00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:19,260 the money for it? You buy it right? Well, to get out of the short position. Smart money's holding from up here. They're going to want to buy it back, then
271 00:48:19,260 --> 00:48:31,110 he's gonna buy it back because this made 20 ticks. Or they're gonna buy it because they made you know, 500 points, ticks, pips, whatever, no. They're
272 00:48:31,110 --> 00:48:46,020 looking for a logic behind where the markets going to go. And where does it reside, where it has a large degree of contrarian opinion. Sell stops protecting
273 00:48:46,050 --> 00:48:55,080 long positions is what's going to be targeted here. That's what's in sight right now. It's advantageous for us as speculators to believe and trust that it's
274 00:48:55,080 --> 00:49:04,620 going to go below that low because there's somebody making money right now. And we don't know who they are. We don't care to know. We don't need to know how
275 00:49:04,620 --> 00:49:14,280 much they're making. But they're making money. And this type of move is meaningful. Because it's dropped a lot. So where's it going some random level
276 00:49:14,280 --> 00:49:27,870 know where there's an obvious level for sell stops resting below this low here. So they sold short to buy stops. So they sold at high prices. And they're going
277 00:49:27,870 --> 00:49:43,800 to buy back at low prices were existing or engineered liquidity will be resting. This here where it runs up drops down. That's engineering liquidity. When does
278 00:49:43,800 --> 00:49:55,530 engineered liquidity form? Here's an outline for your journal. between here and all we back here. That's a lot of time. It's a lot of time. So what happens it
279 00:49:55,530 --> 00:50:07,200 takes up to that level fall short of it drops down and traders do what they go short, which inspires them to do what place by stops risk them going above here.
280 00:50:08,370 --> 00:50:19,410 So when the price gets delivered up there, that's that series of orders that would be resting above these highs here plus large fund orders up here, because
281 00:50:19,410 --> 00:50:30,030 they're going to trade longer term. And the inefficiency, inefficiency of this area here that's shaded. That's a fair value got all of those boxes get checked.
282 00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:40,110 So when that happens, smart money, the way I'm teaching you how to decipher price to engage price to see the real market, not patterns, not retail stuff.
283 00:50:40,590 --> 00:50:49,680 You're looking at it with a market efficiency paradigm. That perspective is you're looking for the fluctuations and delivery of price to do exactly how I'm
284 00:50:49,680 --> 00:51:00,420 teaching you. It does. It's not trading because there's patterns, whether they're classic patterns, or New Wave harmonic animal patterns, which absolutely
285 00:51:00,420 --> 00:51:12,600 is ridiculous. The market only operates on time and price, and it's going for where the orders are resting, which is above old highs, or below old lows, or
286 00:51:12,600 --> 00:51:20,010 it's rebalancing areas of inefficiency and price, which is what I'm showing you in this little box right here. Okay, so
287 00:51:21,600 --> 00:51:30,990 our thought processes going forward, we're still holding with higher dollar and lower euro and we're gonna be monitoring how we trade at this low here. So as
288 00:51:30,990 --> 00:51:39,330 long as we remain below this breaker, we're bearish I'm bearish on Euro expecting that low to be taken out. Very simple, isn't it? What's your bias
289 00:51:39,330 --> 00:51:50,490 going forward for the week looking for lower prices on Euro dollar looking for higher prices on dollar? Simple. If we get in if we get animated, right, Morales
290 00:51:50,490 --> 00:52:00,630 mentioned earlier with dollar, if dollar gets really explosive on the upside, say something happens, you know, on the other side of the world, and you you
291 00:52:00,630 --> 00:52:12,150 know what I'm talking about that could cause the market to do a whole lot of things. And one would be the dollar going up a lot. If that happens that this
292 00:52:12,150 --> 00:52:19,920 count fear of a gap in the form of bias out of balance all sudden efficiency which is busy. That's one candle moving up with the previous candles Hi being
293 00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:28,500 lower than it in the next candles low being higher than the previous candles high. So that separation between those two candles with this one candle. That is
294 00:52:28,500 --> 00:52:41,460 a fair Vega with specific style affair I get busy by side imbalance sell side inefficiency equilibriums here. So if it wants to go to a discount, that's where
295 00:52:41,460 --> 00:52:51,630 my eye is right here. Okay, so I'm giving you my longer term view point out in time. But right now all I'm focusing on is here and how we trade to it. Do we
296 00:52:51,630 --> 00:53:00,420 just shallowly go below it and retrace back up in the range? Or do we smash through it and just really accelerate, that's what I'm waiting to see. But my my
297 00:53:00,420 --> 00:53:12,600 100% focuses, we're going here as my bias. And below it, that's what I'm thinking with higher dollar. That's not ambiguous. Here's the hourly chart on
298 00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:22,110 Euro. And you can see that we've been moving lower, I'm not going to give you the lower low lower high crap, because that's not market structure. That's just
299 00:53:22,140 --> 00:53:32,760 a trend. So but what we do is we like to look back in all of the delivery of price. Great. And here, I have no annotations on these charts, because I'm
300 00:53:32,760 --> 00:53:40,950 counseling you to do on yours. But right in here, you have a fair value gap in the form of a city Senate balanced by sun and efficiency. This candle is high
301 00:53:40,950 --> 00:53:49,590 right here. If you draw a line out, this is institutional order flow entry drill, institutional order flow entry drill is where the market just traces a
302 00:53:49,590 --> 00:53:59,250 little bit inside the fair value gap and then drops. That's what that is, it's not a full closure of the gap. It just goes in a little bit and then go that's
303 00:53:59,250 --> 00:54:07,260 why when you see me pyramiding in when I'm doing my trade executions, every single time I do a entry into the fair pay gap. I'm always trying to pyramid
304 00:54:07,260 --> 00:54:18,360 right there. Because every time I try to fancy dance and try to get the midpoint consequent Cushman I rarely ever get it. So that may be where I believe that the
305 00:54:18,420 --> 00:54:28,350 ideal entry should be for me. But I don't care about the couple ticks that I might be losing in terms of profit or saving in a stoploss. That's not going to
306 00:54:28,350 --> 00:54:37,830 make or break the idea for a trade for me. So as it enters the fair value gap, and institutional workflow entry drill, that is usually abbreviated by I O F, E
307 00:54:37,830 --> 00:54:46,830 D in my chart. All that means is it's you're entering just the smallest little bit inside of a fair value gap. And you're entering based on that within a
308 00:54:46,830 --> 00:54:55,680 narrative or directional bias with the belief that even if it does close in the fair value gap entirely. It doesn't make a difference. It won't hurt me. I'm not
309 00:54:55,680 --> 00:55:06,420 going to take the full position there. I'm going to enter the past Marshall have something like a pyramid. So if I'm going to enter it as a full 1%, this is the
310 00:55:06,420 --> 00:55:13,050 first time I'm getting in a trade because maybe it's already been moved for a while. I'm not afraid of looking at that and getting short, where some of you
311 00:55:13,050 --> 00:55:20,340 might think, Oh, we're down here near support. Look, we're down here by support, you know, it's probably going to go up now. Because, you know, that's, that's
312 00:55:20,340 --> 00:55:27,900 probably what's likely to happen when they have no idea because what I've explained to you on the higher timeframe, they're lost. They're the ones that
313 00:55:27,900 --> 00:55:38,460 are lost. They're trying to go long in Europe. They're trying to find Long's in this market, when your focus should be filtering out. Long's only focusing on
314 00:55:38,460 --> 00:55:47,670 shorts. And every time the market rallies, your thought process should be this is a suspect rally. Why is it going up? Here's the two reasons and the only two
315 00:55:47,670 --> 00:55:56,610 reasons it is going up. Are you ready? Do you have your pen in your hand, but the potato chips down? The only reason why the market is going to rally in the
316 00:55:56,610 --> 00:56:08,520 markets bullish I'm sorry, bearish, right, you're expecting prices to go lower. Every single time that the market rallies, it's going up to tag short term highs
317 00:56:08,670 --> 00:56:27,270 for buy stops, or it's returning to reprice to an inefficiency. What this high here, ran above this high, this high here ran above this high. See a small
318 00:56:27,270 --> 00:56:42,480 little separation here. Very small. it overshoots it in here. That's fine. Breaks lower. What's this rally doing? inefficiency right here. And what's this
319 00:56:42,480 --> 00:56:57,360 wick? Split that wick in half. Boom. That's inefficiency, wicks, or gaps. Anytime you're bearish, folks, listen, Okay, listen, you have complicated this
320 00:56:57,360 --> 00:57:05,820 stuff. And you all have heard people say, I complicate it, I turn this into a science, all you have to do is know the language, simple processes and rules. If
321 00:57:05,820 --> 00:57:13,080 we are bearish based on what we think Lou is going to be on the weekly chart is it going to be expanding higher or expanding lower for objective that can be
322 00:57:13,080 --> 00:57:23,880 seen on the weekly chart, that's the big, that's the beginning of building a bias for the week, not daily, for the week. So that means we're looking for only
323 00:57:23,880 --> 00:57:33,360 buys, if we think that weekly chart is going to print a candle that's expanding higher, right away, you don't care about going short, you don't care who's on
324 00:57:33,360 --> 00:57:41,970 social media, making money showing things you don't care, no one's going to influence you, you're following your methodology, you're not going to know when
325 00:57:41,970 --> 00:57:47,460 you're, you're gonna know when you're wrong, and you're not gonna be confused about when you're wrong, it just didn't pan out, you did something wrong, keep
326 00:57:47,460 --> 00:57:54,720 going keep moving forward. Whereas if you try to chase everybody else's opinion, and when you're wrong, and they're wrong, it's frustrating, because you don't
327 00:57:54,720 --> 00:58:02,400 know how you can prevent that from happening again. Whereas if you have a model, you know, if it fails, okay, no problem, my money management took care of me, I
328 00:58:02,400 --> 00:58:10,410 can still trade the next trade when it forms, and I'm not afraid to take it because these things work more times than they fail. Then you get your daily
329 00:58:10,410 --> 00:58:20,910 chart, you look at, okay, I'm looking for the next areas of interest, these key levels, which is what I shared on the charts thus far. Where's the market?
330 00:58:21,150 --> 00:58:30,660 gravitating towards? Where is it moving towards? That's what you're focusing on. So by having that you're giving yourself an advantage of following along with a
331 00:58:30,660 --> 00:58:42,240 higher time bias and not being scared, or second guessing yourself or going against that. So inefficiency of trades to hear drops, small, little rally,
332 00:58:42,240 --> 00:58:50,700 what's it rolling up into inefficiency to drop? What's it rolling up in here? inefficiency to do what drop in efficiency here? What's it doing after rallies?
333 00:58:50,700 --> 00:59:02,040 Because we're looking this moment inefficiency. And this one here, what does it do? Drop? See these highs here to clean rallies to do what? Take a liquidity
334 00:59:02,040 --> 00:59:10,950 there, then what drop? When you're in a sell program, that means you're bearish, you're expecting prices to deliver lower, it's only going to rally to do one of
335 00:59:10,950 --> 00:59:20,580 two things. Go into inefficiencies, which is fair, fair value gaps above price, or run out of short term high. That's it folks. That's all these things do.
336 00:59:21,720 --> 00:59:30,360 Whatever the algorithm is doing just that, okay, it's coded to just do that. It's not looking for animal patterns. It's not looking for supply and demand
337 00:59:30,360 --> 00:59:37,590 zones. It's literally doing what I just said, all the time, every single day, every single week, every month every year it's going to do it all the time. It's
338 00:59:37,590 --> 00:59:45,930 never going to stop doing that. It's all it ever does. That's it. Once it does that, it will continuously reprice to what there's a level down here. What's
339 00:59:45,930 --> 00:59:52,740 this level that's that low. We're weren't expecting it to reprice to that down there.
340 01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:08,250 Here's the Eurodollar 15 minute chart zoomed in. And usually when you guys are watching other people talk about their analysis and such. And you may be doing
341 01:00:08,250 --> 01:00:16,860 this in your charts too. If I show you this chart like this, and if you're a new trader, you're looking at this as Oh, this is going to be support, I would be
342 01:00:16,860 --> 01:00:28,680 buying that I would not be buying it. So when you're doing your analysis, you need to dress your charts correctly, you need to have your levels in your chart.
343 01:00:29,130 --> 01:00:38,340 So that way, you're not looking at a chart with the skewed perspective that, oh, it looks like it's, it's too low now. Now, when I showed a chart like this, you
344 01:00:38,340 --> 01:00:47,430 can see where I'm showing it daily sell side liquidity pull the movement below that lows we're expecting on the daily chart. But if you don't have that on your
345 01:00:47,430 --> 01:00:54,420 chart, while you're watching price, you are completely clueless as to what it's gravitating towards. And you're going to be influenced by every small little
346 01:00:54,420 --> 01:01:02,040 fluctuation in price. So you have to dress your charts properly, have your higher timeframe, key levels on your chart, as it's reaching for it, you cannot
347 01:01:02,040 --> 01:01:08,640 be effectively trading, if you're using these ultra small timeframes, five minutes, four minutes, three minutes, two minutes, one, and you're zoomed in,
348 01:01:08,640 --> 01:01:19,140 and you only have a handful of candlesticks. You know, if you can't do it efficiently like that, and you're gonna get overly emotional when you need not
349 01:01:19,140 --> 01:01:32,040 to. You got to have the right things in your chart, folks. Alright, s&p, I'm gonna get through this a little bit quicker now. Because I just realized on this
350 01:01:33,660 --> 01:01:41,070 I did not bring my cable, and I don't want to stop talking to go get it. That would be rude because we're doing it live. So here we are, we're in s&p daily
351 01:01:41,070 --> 01:01:52,560 chart. And you want to pause the video, make a note of anything that you observe and and unpause the video when you're done. Those in this attendance that are
352 01:01:52,560 --> 01:01:59,730 impatient, here's what we're focusing on. Here's our key levels. It's Mikey levels now, but we're going to zoom in on that little shaded area. But before we
353 01:01:59,730 --> 01:02:06,060 do, just be mindful that I took your attention off to these relative equal highs earlier in February, we were going to trade that we did. I said we were in this
354 01:02:06,060 --> 01:02:12,720 range, it needs to lead the range, once it leaves the range, we'll be more confident about where it's going to go. Why did I know we're gonna be in
355 01:02:12,720 --> 01:02:21,720 consolidation, because he had two volume imbalances here. And we had already taken the buy side here. And we had to submit to what the expectation of higher
356 01:02:21,720 --> 01:02:33,420 dollar which does what offers the likelihood for this to go lower. zoomed in, here's his key levels in here. And you can go through on your chart and figure
357 01:02:33,420 --> 01:02:41,220 out what these are on your own specific timeframe. You're welcome to take these as your Journal notes as a new student, but it's important that you do this in
358 01:02:41,220 --> 01:02:54,840 your own charts. The consequent question of this wick here, that's what the 4023 and a half level is the mean threshold of the bearish or here this candle? X?
359 01:02:54,840 --> 01:03:03,360 Yeah, I had that noted wrong. That's saying negative OB, this should be your bullish order block. But now because we're below it, it will be viewed as a
360 01:03:03,630 --> 01:03:13,020 bearish order block. So don't be confused by that. Okay. You just learn something here, didn't you? What do you just say this rewind, it's there. And he
361 01:03:13,020 --> 01:03:25,470 had the old low. And then the consequence of this mid point of this gap here. Okay. And we're going to break this down into some really cool. zoomed in, we
362 01:03:25,470 --> 01:03:35,400 have this small little gap down here. Prior to Friday's trading, this was unfilled, or it was left open. And on Friday, we delivered it right to it. Mean
363 01:03:35,400 --> 01:03:44,880 threshold, I'm sorry, the consequent corrosion of the wick here, trades up into it there and then delivers down to that level that is very, very precise.
364 01:03:45,690 --> 01:03:54,030 Everything in here we'll come back to but I want to take your attention to something very specific with that gap right there. Focus on that fear Vega. Do
365 01:03:54,030 --> 01:04:09,270 you see anything that stands out anything that's important? Pause the video, think about that start. Here is your fair Vega. This is what you're used to
366 01:04:09,270 --> 01:04:19,470 seeing. This is how I teach it to you. Okay. Algorithms, high frequency trading algorithms will take that inefficiency there and bust it up into quadrants.
367 01:04:19,710 --> 01:04:26,400 Okay. And I'm going to show you how I was able to talk about Thursday's trading when the GDP number came out. And now I knew where it was going to go and on a
368 01:04:26,400 --> 01:04:37,530 business. I was looking at this gap here. And this is the anatomy of the fair value got an entire range, you put it in quarters, so there's a quadrant from
369 01:04:37,530 --> 01:04:55,530 the highest to here. Midpoint, lower third, low. Those levels if we take those levels and add them to the hourly chart, watching the live stream on Thursday
370 01:04:55,530 --> 01:05:06,450 morning when you hear me talking about with my son the low here I'm sorry, the fair bank up here was at the low end of what the high upper quarter midpoint
371 01:05:06,480 --> 01:05:17,640 lower quarter low that daily fear Vega. Look where that fair Vega 60 minute resides right at that lower quadrant, I only want to see it trade up into that,
372 01:05:17,940 --> 01:05:24,660 I don't want to see it go above the halfway point because if it does, that means it's probably not as bearish as I want it to be. So the best short position is
373 01:05:24,660 --> 01:05:32,550 going to occur at the midpoint of that gap on the daily chart, which is that dashed line and the low, so it goes up to the upper quadrant. And it's the 60
374 01:05:32,550 --> 01:05:48,330 Minute fair value gap. high frequency trading algorithms are going to trade that right there. And market drops lower. This idea, you're going to couple that with
375 01:05:48,330 --> 01:05:55,290 what I've been teaching about how when prices don't reach to a specific level and fail, it indicates exceedingly bearish or exceedingly bullish. And I'll
376 01:05:55,290 --> 01:06:02,400 teach more about that. This week. I'm also going to teach you more about new week opening gaps in a very specific lesson entirely by itself. It's nothing
377 01:06:02,400 --> 01:06:12,420 else but just that, okay, so that'll be on Wednesday. And on fifth minute timeframe, you can see it here. So runs up hits that lower quadrant level, the
378 01:06:12,420 --> 01:06:20,730 fairway given the daily chart and the premium 60 minute, fair Vega, which doesn't look like a fair Vega. Now, when we look at it on the 15th It's
379 01:06:20,730 --> 01:06:31,860 important to move from the top down higher timeframe lower timeframe. More specifically, here is that high higher high that's found in between these two
380 01:06:31,860 --> 01:06:40,740 time periods of these vertical lines, look at that the s&p made higher highs there into the area I was drawing your attention to, and it's the lower quadrant
381 01:06:41,460 --> 01:06:50,850 on that daily fear that you got. And at the same time, the dollar index was unwilling to do what make a lower low see that. So that's SMT USD X Dollar Index
382 01:06:51,540 --> 01:07:02,070 SMT. It should have been a little low that it didn't. So when it does these things. That is what that's flashing, like the beacon saying, okay, smart
383 01:07:02,070 --> 01:07:10,080 money's gonna bill goes short here. And what's going to aim for sellside? Why? Because it took the buy stops above here. So if they're going to buy themselves
384 01:07:10,080 --> 01:07:17,040 or if they're gonna sell short to buy stops here, what are going to look for to get out, sell stops, they're residing right below there. Where's the market? Go
385 01:07:17,070 --> 01:07:24,780 right there. And then what does it do right back up to the fair value gap on the daily chart, bounces there hits the here, new week opening gap, go and look at
386 01:07:24,780 --> 01:07:38,430 Twitter that have watched Twitter goes into new week opening gap and then does what? I can't do that that was liked it. It goes lower obviously. And zoomed in
387 01:07:38,460 --> 01:07:47,580 on a five minute chart. There's the details again, beautiful, higher high into a level I was calling. And there's the s&p divergence telling you it's going to
388 01:07:47,580 --> 01:07:47,910 drop 
389 01:07:54,510 --> 01:08:04,620 back to our chart here with all the details. Okay, so we're going to use these levels here. Now, let me jump in hourly chart here with all the pertinence Oh,
390 01:08:04,620 --> 01:08:15,570 lo consequent question with the wick waterblock mean threshold, and we break down through it. And here's that hourly gap. And here is that four zero to 3.5
391 01:08:15,570 --> 01:08:25,620 level and this is where people get lost in the videos. That's why you get to watch and write down with notes. The consequent question of the daily chart wick
392 01:08:26,790 --> 01:08:37,560 that's what this is here. And the market goes back up to here and then prices down to that old order block and low on the daily chart which is 39 48.75. So
393 01:08:37,560 --> 01:08:45,600 just a beautiful delivery of price action this week. zoomed in here on the hourly chart, you can see how we just went from the fair value gap. You know now
394 01:08:45,630 --> 01:08:56,220 what that was also here, the daily fair value, get lower quadrant and then once it hit it reprice lower right back to the the four zero to 3.5 level, which is a
395 01:08:56,250 --> 01:09:04,170 quick consequent parchment consolidation looks like a bullfight to retail traders and then just rolls on down to a level that completes the sell program
396 01:09:04,170 --> 01:09:15,240 for near term on a Friday. And then with that divergence down here, which will go into the market trades. up higher here also ended up your Vega higher into
397 01:09:15,240 --> 01:09:24,000 this high here. But look what's occurring here in the NASDAQ NASDAQ was doing what at the time NASDAQ was giving you the s&p divergence it did not make a
398 01:09:24,000 --> 01:09:32,250 higher high when Dow did when the s&p went into our objective. That is smart money going short. In the market does in fact reprice lower, no indicators,
399 01:09:32,250 --> 01:09:40,020 folks, this is just the actual price of Dow and NASDAQ. In in the afternoon when I was prompting everyone on Twitter that there was a divergence of the dollar
400 01:09:40,020 --> 01:09:48,960 and the s&p when it made its lower low. You can also see that being confirmed in the averages. So when we fill that gap on the daily chart here you can see we
401 01:09:48,960 --> 01:09:56,040 made the lower low and SP we did not make the lower low in Dow while we made the lower low NASDAQ. We are done for the daily range. It's going to reprice, go
402 01:09:56,040 --> 01:10:06,660 where by side liquidity that's here, ran above it here retraced fair Vega rally again, it consequent curtailment of the gap here. And notice it didn't just go
403 01:10:06,660 --> 01:10:16,830 up to this low here where what support broken turns resistance now it digs up to an algorithm reference point which is the consequence of this gap. And I promise
404 01:10:16,830 --> 01:10:24,960 you, you will learn much, much more as we go through this year. But unfortunately, that's going to be it for this one. And I will touch base with
405 01:10:24,960 --> 01:10:33,720 you on Monday. I'm pretty sure Lord willing, through Twitter. Enjoy the rest of the weekend. Until next time, be safe