ICT YT - 2023-02-16 - ES Session Review - February 15 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-02-16 09:26
Outline
01:35 - E-mini S&P/March delivery contract for 2023.
03:33 - What is the New Day Gap?
07:32 - Where do you start? -.
13:44 - When did this run occur going into the 7:30 hour?
19:05 - Do everything you see me doing with tradingview with your trading platform.
24:59 - What happens when the market consolidates going into the 30 hour.
30:49 - The relationship between confirmed higher highs and higher lows.
35:49 - Why does this even work?
42:00 - The low of the new week opening gap -.
47:37 - What’s a spooling program?
51:52 - Why the market is going to rally once it starts rallying every down close candle.
56:49 - Short selling, short selling, selling, buying, buying.
01:01:56 - Why you should fear overtrading over leveraging -.
Transcript
| 1 | 00:01:35,700 --> 00:01:39,960 | ICT: me a five by five on audio and the chart is shown unclear |
| 2 | 00:01:57,510 --> 00:02:00,210 | just waiting on confirmation that audio is good |
| 3 | 00:02:18,330 --> 00:02:19,440 | thank you very much for that |
| 4 | 00:02:41,970 --> 00:02:48,750 | Alright, so you should be seeing a one minute chart of the E Mini s&p March delivery contract for 2023 |
| 5 | 00:02:54,840 --> 00:03:19,380 | and right here this candle right here okay that candle the closing price we're going to annotate that and then we're going to annotate the Rain X candles |
| 6 | 00:03:19,380 --> 00:03:35,880 | opening price just here what that's doing is the distinction between where we closed for the one hour break. And when we opened back up at six o'clock, so |
| 7 | 00:03:35,940 --> 00:03:53,700 | it's very little change in fact, it's only one tick. So while it might not look that important, it goes completely past most people's eyes. But this is a new |
| 8 | 00:03:53,700 --> 00:04:11,370 | the new day gap opening revenue by n DlG. New week opening gap is where we have the difference between where we closed on the previous week's Friday and the new |
| 9 | 00:04:11,370 --> 00:04:23,820 | Sunday's opening. New Day opening gap is the difference between where we close at 5pm New York local time and when we open it 6pm In New York local time there |
| 10 | 00:04:23,820 --> 00:04:36,840 | may be a visual gap or difference between those two price points something like this where this is actual liquidity void. We don't have that here we see just |
| 11 | 00:04:36,840 --> 00:04:47,160 | the the closing price and then the next opening is here. So it's little to unchanged but it's by one tick difference. Going over here you can see look at |
| 12 | 00:04:47,160 --> 00:05:02,940 | the body's respecting it here. Look at the candle high here. Look at the low on that candle of sensitivity around there. Looking at the close of this candle, |
| 13 | 00:05:02,970 --> 00:05:11,640 | look at the open of this candle, look at the high of this candle, that the high of that candle, look at the high of that candle, the open and close on that |
| 14 | 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:25,020 | candle. Lots of things occurring right there. So if you scrub forward, I'm just gonna just keep that level, in the center of the charts that we can see when we |
| 15 | 00:05:25,020 --> 00:05:45,930 | get to. We're only gonna go to about four o'clock. And I'm gonna close it. So here we are, at New Day opening gap. Okay, right in here. And the only thing I |
| 16 | 00:05:45,930 --> 00:05:54,630 | really highlighted here was the seven o'clock time, where, like, if you trade Forex, you can trade Forex around seven o'clock and nine o'clock in the morning. |
| 17 | 00:05:56,310 --> 00:06:09,390 | If I suspect this is where you're supposed to be taking notes, if I suspect that the markets going to be problematic for me, meaning that it's either going to be |
| 18 | 00:06:10,260 --> 00:06:23,250 | very hard to read. And I'm expecting that because of some news driver that would come the next day or later in the afternoon like FOMC, I will adopt the seven |
| 19 | 00:06:23,250 --> 00:06:35,340 | o'clock to 830 time window if I want to trade pre market. So before 830 News driver comes if I see something that I want to participate in, and I think that |
| 20 | 00:06:35,340 --> 00:06:46,950 | the news driver at 830. What I mean by news driver, any kind of report data, some kind of market, medium impact or high impact news event that usually gets |
| 21 | 00:06:46,950 --> 00:07:00,750 | released around 830, New York local time. If I like the market structure that's in play, at seven o'clock going into 830, I have no fear of getting in a trade |
| 22 | 00:07:00,750 --> 00:07:11,040 | and using the 30 hour to roll right into my targets, which is what I showed this morning on Twitter, I went through the preamble of going through why I felt the |
| 23 | 00:07:11,100 --> 00:07:22,890 | dollar index was likely to go higher. Why I felt that the foreign currencies were likely to go lower, and es would go lower. I said that forex and the |
| 24 | 00:07:22,890 --> 00:07:38,940 | equities like es would seek sell side, meaning my bias was bearish. I prompted you to take a look at your chart for New Day opening gap. And for those |
| 25 | 00:07:38,940 --> 00:07:45,810 | individuals that are falling on Twitter, all you have to do is go back to that time when I tweeted this morning asking if you've done what I've been teaching |
| 26 | 00:07:45,810 --> 00:07:56,430 | you to do, you would see the effects of price action here. Within the day opening gap. Folks were had already had on their chart, and they had been |
| 27 | 00:07:56,430 --> 00:08:11,910 | sharing it. And they replied also with what they were showing. So this level here. That's the consequent encouragement of a previous new week opening gap. So |
| 28 | 00:08:11,910 --> 00:08:23,130 | right away, if you have just started following me. It's going to feel like how can I keep up with this? And where do I start? Where do I begin? The easiest |
| 29 | 00:08:23,130 --> 00:08:31,530 | answer is this just show up every day. Okay, just show up every day. And everything will start to make sense over time. Don't demand that it's going to |
| 30 | 00:08:31,530 --> 00:08:39,450 | happen for you right away. Don't expect them to take trades right away and understand why you're doing it. What I'm teaching you how to read price action |
| 31 | 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:51,420 | on a different level. You're going to be looking at algorithmically. If you don't think that the price is responding to that small little separation between |
| 32 | 00:08:51,420 --> 00:09:04,500 | where we close on Friday, and sorry, where we close on 5pm and we open up at 6pm. You're in denial. The market ran aggressively right to that. Look at the |
| 33 | 00:09:04,500 --> 00:09:14,610 | bodies. They'd be wick above it. Yes. That the body stopped at the low of it. Yes. Did the body open at the high that Yes. Was there any candle in here that |
| 34 | 00:09:14,610 --> 00:09:29,610 | went beyond the new day opening gap? Just the wick, nobody. The body tells the story. The wicks do the damage. Like it breaks lower. And this is consequent |
| 35 | 00:09:29,610 --> 00:09:40,860 | curtailment of the previous week, new week opening gap and W O G is when we use the opening price on Sunday. Based on the difference between that and the |
| 36 | 00:09:40,860 --> 00:09:50,010 | previous week's Friday. They are static price levels. They're not hiding from you. They can't be manipulated after they've been given to you everyone sees the |
| 37 | 00:09:50,010 --> 00:10:00,660 | same price. It's not Forex, where we don't have the same highs and lows. Everybody sees the exact same price. That's the advantage of trading futures, |
| 38 | 00:10:01,230 --> 00:10:11,220 | you can't be as manipulated as you would be if you were trading in forex. For some of you that are kicking and screaming, saying, I only want you to talk |
| 39 | 00:10:11,220 --> 00:10:23,850 | about forex, ICT I've come to learn about you as Forex. And now that I want to do it, you started talking about this, this is a better market. This is where I |
| 40 | 00:10:23,850 --> 00:10:33,360 | started. So when I took a step away from Forex, I went right back to my roots, which is this. At the time, I told everybody before, if Forex ever became an |
| 41 | 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:45,480 | issue, I know where I live, I can go right back to the commodity markets and futures, index futures, and bonds. Okay, so the things I'm teaching you, when it |
| 42 | 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:56,040 | comes to something like this, this is the same thing that you can apply to Forex. You can do the same thing with the price action, and all the things but |
| 43 | 00:10:56,040 --> 00:11:08,760 | I'm just teaching you theory specific things that are directly related to this asset to this particular market. It's advantageous for you to know these things |
| 44 | 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:20,310 | because no one else knows them. No one else teaches it, how to use it, why it's implemented? What do we use it for? Where's the advantage coming by knowing it? |
| 45 | 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:36,060 | And once you have all those facets to this specific vehicle index features, it gives you a session where no better way of describing it is, it's an insider's |
| 46 | 00:11:36,060 --> 00:11:48,300 | edge. Because you're looking at the market, way beyond the normal scope of the average investor, the average trader, the average day trader, they don't have |
| 47 | 00:11:48,300 --> 00:11:55,620 | these tools. You have them now and everybody that's going to come to this channel and learn from me and go on Twitter, you now have seen just in a week, |
| 48 | 00:11:56,310 --> 00:12:10,410 | how influential these levels are. Because the algorithm itself, it's repricing back to these levels. It's offering what fair value? What is fair value? Fair |
| 49 | 00:12:10,410 --> 00:12:26,670 | Value is the opportunity for market participants to trade at a level where the algorithm is deeming it not favored enough for enough of a length of time. In |
| 50 | 00:12:26,670 --> 00:12:36,900 | other words, it did not trade between a specific price range, enough for participants to have the opportunity to trade. Does that mean that the algorithm |
| 51 | 00:12:36,900 --> 00:12:44,400 | is being nice to you as a retail trader? Is it being nice to me? Because we speculate No, it's not for you. |
| 52 | 00:12:45,870 --> 00:12:55,650 | It's for a different class of trader that you're not going to meet. They're not on social media trying to sell courses. They're not doing teaching circuits. |
| 53 | 00:12:56,340 --> 00:13:05,610 | They didn't work in a pit. They don't work at Joe Schmo bank down the street where they can get a mortgage. They don't work at Goldman Sachs. They don't work |
| 54 | 00:13:05,610 --> 00:13:19,980 | at UBS. It's a completely different group. Their tools, their reference points are absolutely outside the scope of normal analysis concepts. Yes, it's |
| 55 | 00:13:19,980 --> 00:13:28,860 | technical science. Yes. It's highly precise. Do you honestly think they're going to trade and risk billions of dollars on Mickey Mouse analysis concepts? |
| 56 | 00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:38,460 | Absolutely not. They don't have trend lines that's diagonal. They don't look at moving average crossovers. There's nothing harmonic. There's nothing. Elliott |
| 57 | 00:13:38,460 --> 00:13:51,480 | Wave. There's no supply and demand. It's very specific, open high, low and close. That's it. And time. Time. When did this run occur? Going into what the |
| 58 | 00:13:51,480 --> 00:14:02,250 | seven o'clock hour? This whole run right here right to that price point, set the stage for me to trust that I could find a setup before the 930 opening. And I |
| 59 | 00:14:02,250 --> 00:14:12,330 | had already anticipated that the 930 opening and throughout the session today would be lethargic, choppy range bound. Can you trade in that? Absolutely. You |
| 60 | 00:14:12,330 --> 00:14:24,360 | can. I don't prefer to trade in those environments. Can I do it? Yes. Do I want to teach my students that are new to my analysis concepts and or speculation at |
| 61 | 00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:35,340 | all the trade in these environments? No, I teach you how to identify them and sit on your hands. It's important to know that because some of you still don't |
| 62 | 00:14:35,340 --> 00:14:45,390 | want to listen. And you're complaining that you missed your trade based on what I was talking about today. By two seconds, you missed your trade. But good |
| 63 | 00:14:45,390 --> 00:14:55,200 | session otherwise. I can't like that comment on Twitter. Because what you're saying is you missed the opportunity to take a trade which is exactly what I |
| 64 | 00:14:55,200 --> 00:15:04,170 | told you not to do. If you're trying to trade and follow along whelmed on tape reading, you are going to get frustrated, because you're going to be thinking, |
| 65 | 00:15:04,170 --> 00:15:13,620 | I'm saying, buy and sell when the only thing I'm teaching you is how to read, interpret what price is doing. In a couple of months, you will be asked to push |
| 66 | 00:15:13,620 --> 00:15:23,970 | the button on your demo account. You gotta wait, let that time in necessity for that part of this development come its way in natural order of things. But right |
| 67 | 00:15:23,970 --> 00:15:32,370 | now, you don't know anything. You have no idea what I'm talking about, you have no idea where I'm going with the lectures, no idea whatsoever, you have to be |
| 68 | 00:15:32,370 --> 00:15:41,610 | conditioned to see the things it's going to be repeating over and over again. But I need you to understand that the risks are elevated. Right now. It's |
| 69 | 00:15:41,610 --> 00:15:52,320 | difficult right now. If you're trying to be proficient as a trader, and push yourself in these environments, right now, the only thing you're asking is to |
| 70 | 00:15:52,320 --> 00:16:01,080 | make it harder than it needs to be. That's, that's what you're doing. So I want you to just keep that in mind when we're going forward with this mentorship. |
| 71 | 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:11,310 | This year, when I'm doing the live sessions, I'm giving my time so that way you can understand the difference between a high probability condition and a low |
| 72 | 00:16:11,310 --> 00:16:20,760 | probability condition. Both can be traded, but one has a much better characteristic, that it's easy to get in, you can trust where it's gonna go. |
| 73 | 00:16:21,630 --> 00:16:29,850 | It's immediate gratification. And it quickly gets your targets and you can wrap it up and go do do whatever you wanna do the rest of the day. That's exactly |
| 74 | 00:16:29,850 --> 00:16:38,970 | what a trader would want to have. But because you're learning all this other retail stuff, you think that you know, the lifestyle is you gotta be chained in |
| 75 | 00:16:38,970 --> 00:16:46,260 | front of the charts all day, you don't, you don't want to have that. You want to get your money, wham, bam, thank you, man out there, there you go. And join back |
| 76 | 00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:58,230 | with the living, you go out and spend time with your family. So because I saw this this morning, and started the breakdown, I was watching the low of the |
| 77 | 00:16:58,230 --> 00:17:11,880 | previous week's new week opening gap. And again, I'm gonna want to bring this down real quick. On your charts, you want to have 4146, even 4134 and a quarter, |
| 78 | 00:17:12,270 --> 00:17:23,550 | which is this level here. And the difference between these two levels exactly 50% Is this level right here 4140 and a quarter. So when we ran up to New Day |
| 79 | 00:17:23,550 --> 00:17:38,940 | opening gap, here, which again is for your notes, the closing price at 5pm. And then the new opening price at 6pm. The hour gap that futures have every single |
| 80 | 00:17:38,940 --> 00:17:49,920 | day in the evening time in your local time. That difference, whatever that range difference is, it could be several handles, or it could be one tick, just like |
| 81 | 00:17:49,920 --> 00:18:03,570 | this. You want to have that annotated on your chart throughout the day. It's a reference point that the algorithm will refer back to. And I'll teach you more |
| 82 | 00:18:03,570 --> 00:18:11,820 | about that later on as we go. But it's very easy for me to drown you with all these things. And it's going to feel extremely complicated. And some of you |
| 83 | 00:18:11,820 --> 00:18:19,470 | probably already feel like this is too much give me a Moving Average crossover. That's fine. If that's how you want to look at it, don't come back. But if you |
| 84 | 00:18:19,470 --> 00:18:27,570 | really want to know how these markets book, what makes them go up and down where they stopped turn on a dime. And why they do it, you came to the right place, |
| 85 | 00:18:28,020 --> 00:18:38,310 | because you're not gonna learn it anywhere else. But that New Day opening gap it ran today. Quickly, would you agree that that was a real quick run up into that |
| 86 | 00:18:39,780 --> 00:18:47,640 | it's occurring at that seven o'clock hour, New York local time, your time when you're trading view charts. While you're with me learning, I don't care what |
| 87 | 00:18:47,640 --> 00:19:01,590 | platform you use, you can be using something else. Trade of a Ninja Trader TradeStation whatever, it doesn't matter, while you're learning. Okay, while |
| 88 | 00:19:01,590 --> 00:19:09,870 | you're learning with me, you should be implementing trading view. Do everything you see me doing with trading view? And yes, it might require you an additional |
| 89 | 00:19:09,870 --> 00:19:19,380 | step for transferring what you're doing here in TradingView. With your trading platform, I leave that up to you. But it's essential that you do everything you |
| 90 | 00:19:19,380 --> 00:19:28,440 | see me in the rest of this group do with this one medium, that that way you're never confused every candle identification that I present, you'll be able to |
| 91 | 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:40,710 | track it immediately and see what is going on in my commentary and on my analysis. So seven o'clock in the morning to 830. If there's going to be a |
| 92 | 00:19:41,130 --> 00:19:50,670 | difficult time in trading, if I think we're going to consolidate or we're in low probability conditions, that is the green light. Okay, if you want to bat |
| 93 | 00:19:50,670 --> 00:20:00,660 | symbol, okay, the bat sign that goes up in the sky at nighttime. If you want to the inside track to the little nudge from Google ICT that means I'm probably |
| 94 | 00:20:00,660 --> 00:20:12,420 | going to be taking something before either. So you were prompted this morning to look for sell side in futures. And in forex, you were prompted to look for |
| 95 | 00:20:12,420 --> 00:20:23,490 | higher prices in dollar. I gave you the bias. I gave you the the premise of what I was looking for. After I gave that I engaged in demoed executions. I looked |
| 96 | 00:20:23,490 --> 00:20:35,040 | for the market to move away from the New Day opening gap, which it did. I waited for it to trade down to the low of the previous week's new week opening gap. If |
| 97 | 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:43,410 | you don't know what I'm saying, just write down the questions you're having. And I promise you if you go over to Twitter, and you ask it, that our community will |
| 98 | 00:20:43,410 --> 00:20:52,050 | gladly share the answers with you to bring you up to speed. We're not a bunch of goobers to sit around and are selfish. We want everybody to do well. And we feed |
| 99 | 00:20:52,050 --> 00:21:02,100 | off each other's energy, I feed off your energy. So if you have questions, just go over to my Twitter feed, just tweet to me. And people will see it. And |
| 100 | 00:21:02,100 --> 00:21:15,210 | they'll respond to your recording. If they're so I'll block them. So if you look, give me one second. If you look at the move away from the new week, |
| 101 | 00:21:15,210 --> 00:21:26,520 | opening gaps low, we had displacement to the downside, as the market moved away from this level. Do I need to be up here to get short now? Did I need to sell |
| 102 | 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:33,630 | short here? No. How about this one here? I could have got institutional order for intraday other. Yep, got a didn't do it? How about here? I gotta I gotta |
| 103 | 00:21:33,630 --> 00:21:41,070 | trade it back into that. Yep, didn't do it. I waited, I want to see it trade back to this key level, which is the previous weeks and the week opening gap. |
| 104 | 00:21:42,270 --> 00:21:53,940 | Then I waited for what displacement? I want to see it move sharply away from it, then because it did that what happens? We have a fair value gap right here. So |
| 105 | 00:21:53,940 --> 00:22:06,270 | that fair value gap and the last close candle at the new week opening gap. Which order blocks do you use ICT you're learning? There's multiple things about this |
| 106 | 00:22:06,270 --> 00:22:18,720 | is not just the last up close candle before the drop. That's, that's no, that's not it. It's where you're at when that candle forms. And this new week opening |
| 107 | 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:28,950 | gap, none of you are aware of it until I started teaching it. You're asking for the very specific video, the video, okay. There will be a specific tutorial |
| 108 | 00:22:28,950 --> 00:22:34,020 | produced for it, but I want to show you it a few times. Because every time I put something out new |
| 109 | 00:22:35,339 --> 00:22:43,709 | invariably, someone's gonna say this is nonsense. This is cherry picked or whatever. I'm letting you handle this. You're putting your hands all over this |
| 110 | 00:22:43,829 --> 00:22:52,979 | watching it live. It literally just gyrates right back to these levels all the time, but you weren't aware of it. See, I'm giving you the chance to have a |
| 111 | 00:22:52,979 --> 00:23:05,129 | laboratory experiment on your own. Play with the the toys, okay, and discover how systematic and routine these things exist over the course of a day and over |
| 112 | 00:23:05,129 --> 00:23:16,499 | the course of a trading week. But when we're looking for order blocks that change in the state of delivery, which is what an order block is, it's not the |
| 113 | 00:23:16,499 --> 00:23:27,539 | candle, it has absolutely nothing to do with the candle has nothing to do with that candle. It's the change in the state of delivery, the market changes the |
| 114 | 00:23:27,539 --> 00:23:39,929 | state delivery rate here. Once it starts delivering sell side, and you have a fair value gap, your eye goes right back to that opening price is going to trade |
| 115 | 00:23:39,929 --> 00:23:47,579 | up into the fair value gap. That's where you want to try to take your entry, you allow for the price to trade up to that level. Because if it does, and you do |
| 116 | 00:23:47,579 --> 00:23:57,629 | another entry there as well. If you hold out the trade to the order block, and don't put anything on inside the fair value gap, sometimes the order block will |
| 117 | 00:23:57,629 --> 00:24:05,699 | not be traded to the fair value gap will be the only respected level and then the market will run away without you. And that can be very frustrating. Because |
| 118 | 00:24:05,699 --> 00:24:17,009 | if you demand absolute to the tick precision for all of your executions, you will miss moves. The market sometimes simply will not move exactly where you |
| 119 | 00:24:17,009 --> 00:24:29,279 | want to go. Or you'll be so picky about your entry. Your limit order won't fill and it runs away. And then you have to use a lower closer proximity entry to a |
| 120 | 00:24:30,479 --> 00:24:41,459 | price point that's lower than the key ideal entry points like this one here. So the market moves again, small little movement into this candles Hi, I like that |
| 121 | 00:24:41,879 --> 00:24:49,799 | added more. Go back and look at the Twitter example. Okay, because I shared this, I recorded it. It's there and you can see my execution the whole business. |
| 122 | 00:24:50,399 --> 00:25:01,019 | And then we had this fair value gap that formed what kind of fair value gap is this city si bi center balanced by center efficiency. I knew in real time, I |
| 123 | 00:25:01,019 --> 00:25:13,679 | removed the here for clarity, I wanted to see this remain open. And the market moved lower and attacked the sell side in here. All of this setting up for what |
| 124 | 00:25:14,219 --> 00:25:28,829 | move going into 830. The market consolidates going into the 30 hour and I mentioned that we would see it drop aggressively, sharply into |
| 125 | 00:25:36,660 --> 00:25:45,810 | the 30 News Hour, sort of news event that came out, I don't even know what the data was. I can tell you the same on life, if you offer me a billion dollars |
| 126 | 00:25:45,810 --> 00:25:54,990 | cash to tell you what the data said for that report, I couldn't tell you, I don't ever give a shit, I don't care, I just expect the volatility that comes in |
| 127 | 00:25:54,990 --> 00:26:05,580 | in the marketplace at that time. Once I know I'm looking for a run, then I'm expecting that a three hour if I know that they that I'm about the trade is |
| 128 | 00:26:05,580 --> 00:26:14,670 | going to be range bound consolidation day, or just choppy. I'm gonna be doing my work between seven o'clock and 830. And once the three news driver kicks in and |
| 129 | 00:26:15,180 --> 00:26:24,690 | runs through the liquidity I'm looking for and fills my order like you watching the video shared on Twitter. I'm done. I'm not going to worry about armwrestling |
| 130 | 00:26:24,690 --> 00:26:32,670 | the market the rest of the day, I could care less what it does. Because my analysis was calling for what a difficult trading market. So if I'm anticipating |
| 131 | 00:26:32,670 --> 00:26:40,470 | a difficult time, why not go in and get my money before everybody else goes into the party, I want to show up, eat the food when it's fresh, leave it and |
| 132 | 00:26:40,470 --> 00:26:47,340 | everybody else comes here and gets the stale bread. And they're wondering why it doesn't taste good. They're working so hard for it. I'm getting in getting out. |
| 133 | 00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:57,300 | That's what you want to do. If you don't want to trade like that, if you don't learn how to participate in the marketplace like that, you can do other things, |
| 134 | 00:26:57,300 --> 00:27:04,140 | go trade somewhere else and learn somebody else's method. There's nothing wrong with that. There's other people that teach methods that make money. But the |
| 135 | 00:27:04,140 --> 00:27:04,950 | things that I do |
| 136 | 00:27:11,010 --> 00:27:21,900 | the playbook, I have to plug my laptop in here. I'm trying to teach you how to be more efficient with your time, more efficient with your risk. Because if |
| 137 | 00:27:21,900 --> 00:27:31,740 | you're going to assume risk model, just do it. When it's the best time to see markets moving right? Do you want to just go in there because the trading hours |
| 138 | 00:27:32,790 --> 00:27:43,050 | are now active? It everybody else showed up? Or do you want to be in there, when it's really good, get it and go. |
| 139 | 00:27:52,890 --> 00:28:04,110 | There's no executions. You can't do that with the Market Replay. Everything there are logic and everything you can watch me do that in the recording on |
| 140 | 00:28:04,110 --> 00:28:19,470 | Twitter. So then we have after 830 the market starts to bang around lots of chop and consolidation. And I called every one of these little turns in here and gave |
| 141 | 00:28:19,470 --> 00:28:33,900 | you my personal interpretation of every single candle. As it reached down into the lows. I explained to you that everything in here is just seeking new |
| 142 | 00:28:33,900 --> 00:28:41,550 | liquidity, there's no trade setups, none. Every time there was an imbalance, I said, Now study this one, watch this one and re emphasizing that this is not a |
| 143 | 00:28:41,550 --> 00:28:48,990 | trade. This is not a setup, this is nothing. I would like to see this happen if I was watching price right now. But watch and see what it does do not take the |
| 144 | 00:28:48,990 --> 00:28:57,120 | trade. Why? Because I told you at the beginning of the session, it's going to be range bound because I took you to the daily chart. And I told you we are inside |
| 145 | 00:28:57,120 --> 00:29:08,700 | of a large range. There's nothing definitive about where we're going next. So everything needs to be small little surgical strikes intraday. Hearing that if |
| 146 | 00:29:08,700 --> 00:29:15,720 | you're not wanting to hear that you're gonna have selective hearing. And you're gonna want to go in here and see something I'm talking about. And you're going |
| 147 | 00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:23,130 | to chase it because you want to make money you want to pass your funded accounts you want to get funded, or you want to fix your drawdown and you're trying to |
| 148 | 00:29:23,130 --> 00:29:33,930 | use me to fix your drawdown. I'm not a genie in the bottle, okay. And I'm gonna wear this part out a lot and it's gonna piss some of you off. But you're not |
| 149 | 00:29:33,930 --> 00:29:43,470 | going to learn if you do that. It's important that you have nothing at risk while you're watching the tape reading. If you do that, this is what I promise |
| 150 | 00:29:43,470 --> 00:29:54,990 | is going to happen for you. You're going to see your setup, the one that you understand, easy. You will see it you will know it's for me. And when I comment |
| 151 | 00:29:54,990 --> 00:30:06,300 | on it, it will confirm that you see it and that confirmation Over time, will train your eye to see it forming. And then when I'm not doing these any more |
| 152 | 00:30:06,300 --> 00:30:14,580 | than that the year, probably even before we get to that point, you'll be able to see it live in your charts without ICT making any reference to it. And that's |
| 153 | 00:30:14,580 --> 00:30:24,210 | exactly why I'm doing this. I'm not out here trying to be Mr. Right. I'm not trying to be the biggest YouTube streamer or the Mr. Popular. I'm trying to |
| 154 | 00:30:24,210 --> 00:30:33,300 | teach you the the best way in the way I know works. If you come to me, and you're expecting your way of doing it, having it your way, mentorship, you're |
| 155 | 00:30:33,300 --> 00:30:40,410 | not going to get the results you're looking for. I promise you, that's not going to happen. You might be able to chase a move that I might call out. And you |
| 156 | 00:30:40,410 --> 00:30:50,400 | think that's learning how to trade, the only thing you did was copycat. I'm not teaching you to copycat me or anyone else, I want you to be independent. So we |
| 157 | 00:30:50,400 --> 00:31:01,740 | are looking at these lows down here. I will counsel you to look at the dollar index. Okay, and I'll pull it up in a second. But for now, we were watching |
| 158 | 00:31:01,740 --> 00:31:14,220 | these lows. And I was watching the relationship between these lows between the NASDAQ lows and the Dow Jones futures contract lows. And there was eventually a |
| 159 | 00:31:14,220 --> 00:31:28,350 | divergence between those three averages. And then they all eventually went lower. So all of them agreed on that lower low here. But the dollar index did |
| 160 | 00:31:28,350 --> 00:31:38,370 | not. These were all real time analysis points that I was calling out. I said okay, now even though we have a lower low formed here, when all three major |
| 161 | 00:31:38,370 --> 00:31:48,870 | averages, the MQ, the YM in the ES, they all agreed on that lower low. There was still SMT divergence there. Because we're looking at the relationship to the |
| 162 | 00:31:48,870 --> 00:31:59,040 | dollar index, the dollar index is going to give you risk on risk off. If the dollar is going to go up, that means it's risk off. That means Forex bond |
| 163 | 00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:12,180 | currencies, and index futures are going to have more freedom to drop and have a hard time rallying higher. If the dollar index is moving lower, that's risk on. |
| 164 | 00:32:13,170 --> 00:32:25,440 | That means that Forex, foreign currencies and index futures are going to have a very easy freedom to rally higher, and it's going to be very hard for your sell |
| 165 | 00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:38,160 | short positions to be profitable. It just won't pan out well for you. It's important to know that because majority of the traders that I have watched and |
| 166 | 00:32:38,610 --> 00:32:49,410 | observed and how they trade and what logic they use, they'll ever talk about this. They'll ever mention it. They might use Dow Theory, maybe I haven't seen |
| 167 | 00:32:49,410 --> 00:33:00,840 | any, you know in recent years on YouTube or streaming it. But the relationship between confirmed higher highs not higher, high, higher low market structure. |
| 168 | 00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:10,980 | I'm talking about very specific kilos that are forming. We're watching them this morning live. As they dug in and made that lower low. I was walking, I was |
| 169 | 00:33:10,980 --> 00:33:18,810 | walking you through it all. Go back and watch the live stream, you can go on my YouTube channel, click on the Live tab and watch it. I can't edit it. It's all |
| 170 | 00:33:18,810 --> 00:33:29,490 | there. And the things I'm telling you and prompting you to look at. Even though my chart stayed on this. You should be having another window where you're |
| 171 | 00:33:29,490 --> 00:33:42,330 | toggling to another chart when I'm prompting you to do it. Because you have to have intermarket relationships where they, they have connection. And then we |
| 172 | 00:33:42,330 --> 00:33:55,380 | have inter market analysis, brung from like $1 index, why are we even referring to dollar because risk on risk off? If there's going to be a change in |
| 173 | 00:33:55,380 --> 00:34:09,360 | sentiment, usually the dollar index will start showing it to you. If you see the lows forming, we were already worrying about these lows falling down here early. |
| 174 | 00:34:10,710 --> 00:34:20,040 | We felt that they were suspect, because I did not see follow through on Dollar Index. And the dollar index failed to make a higher high this is where you need |
| 175 | 00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:37,440 | the right units. The dollar failed to make a higher high as we made this lower low at 10:12am. So that lower low on the ES and the lower low in NASDAQ and the |
| 176 | 00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:49,770 | lower low on Dow futures was not met with a higher high in dollar that is an s&p divergence. I call that SMP index, s&p Divergence Dollar Index s&p Divergence |
| 177 | 00:34:49,770 --> 00:35:01,410 | rather a symmetrical market and this is for your notes as well. A symmetrical market is where if we have lower low like that This, we're not talking about |
| 178 | 00:35:01,410 --> 00:35:13,650 | trend, we're talking about very specific relative highs and lows, we have a low, and then a lower low. If that lower low is seen in NASDAQ, and lower low in the |
| 179 | 00:35:13,650 --> 00:35:27,420 | Dow and a higher high in the dollar index, that's a symmetrical market. That's in a perfect world. That's exactly what you want to see it anytime you see one |
| 180 | 00:35:27,420 --> 00:35:36,960 | of those crack in the correlation that I just gave you. It's telling you, there's a sentiment shift unfolding. And I walked you through it live this |
| 181 | 00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:46,740 | morning. So you have to, you have to be able to measure things real time. If you're going to be a day trader, and you want to have precision, and you want to |
| 182 | 00:35:46,740 --> 00:35:56,220 | be trading with an institutional mindset. These are the tools and concepts that they're employing to do it. There's no indicators here, all we're doing is |
| 183 | 00:35:56,220 --> 00:36:06,540 | referring to another asset, another instrument, and its price delivery. The reason why this occurs for some of you that are thinking, Well, why does this |
| 184 | 00:36:06,540 --> 00:36:20,550 | even work? Because there is a shift in all of these algorithms. The dollar index runs on an algorithm, the ES runs on an algorithm. The Dow runs on an algorithm. |
| 185 | 00:36:21,450 --> 00:36:35,910 | The NASDAQ runs on an algorithm, they're they're all running on an individual scene, but their own individual algorithm when they're manipulated. That crack |
| 186 | 00:36:36,240 --> 00:36:47,910 | is like the signal for Alright, it's time. Now, it's largely goes unnoticed by most of the trading community. Because if they all noticed it, and they felt it |
| 187 | 00:36:47,910 --> 00:36:54,390 | was advantageous the me paying attention to it, it would be plastered in every book, it would be in every course everybody we talked about it on, they're going |
| 188 | 00:36:54,390 --> 00:37:01,770 | to do it now because I'm doing it. But when you do these things, and you see them studying them, and you start trading with them, and you've been using them |
| 189 | 00:37:01,770 --> 00:37:12,870 | for three, three decades. And know that everybody else doesn't touch on it. It's like a secret weapon. And here's the wonderful thing. It's never going to stop |
| 190 | 00:37:12,870 --> 00:37:22,380 | working. Just stop worrying about it. Okay, the reason why it's never going to stop working is because the market has to |
| 191 | 00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:33,000 | signify, it's time for that Smart Money group to get the work. That's why it's happening. You don't have to believe me, I don't care, save your opinions, |
| 192 | 00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:40,200 | because you're not convincing me I'm out here walking out here for for real in front of you. I'm telling you how it's happening real time on a minute by minute |
| 193 | 00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:48,720 | basis. And I'm telling you where I'm getting the information from. So that way you can walk forward with it. Not Oh, it was cherry picked only worked at one |
| 194 | 00:37:48,720 --> 00:37:56,610 | time. Now you're gonna see this stuff work all year long. Every year, I mean, every week, every day that I sit down with you, you're gonna see these concepts |
| 195 | 00:37:56,610 --> 00:38:06,150 | unfolding in the charts. And you're going to compare and contrast how much time you've wasted, looking at other things, insisting that that was the right way of |
| 196 | 00:38:06,150 --> 00:38:13,410 | dealing. This was the best way of understanding price. This is the best indicator, this is the best teacher to learn from all those things, they're |
| 197 | 00:38:13,410 --> 00:38:20,910 | going to fall by the wayside, you're going to understand the truth about the marketplace. And I'm showing that to you until we got to this point here where |
| 198 | 00:38:20,910 --> 00:38:34,230 | we had that dollar index divergence. I said, Okay, now I would expect it to run on the buy stops. Above these highs here, and then I reach all the way back over |
| 199 | 00:38:34,350 --> 00:38:41,850 | to here. And I said if we got through that it would go back up to the consequent correction of the previous weeks and the week opening up. Don't believe me go |
| 200 | 00:38:41,850 --> 00:38:51,120 | back and watch the live stream. It's all there. While we were down here. That's it, I want to see it rip through this favorite yet. I want to see it rip through |
| 201 | 00:38:51,540 --> 00:39:01,710 | this high. And then once we got through this high, I said Now watch. This is not me going through the process of looking at Classic support resistance. This is |
| 202 | 00:39:01,740 --> 00:39:12,420 | this is completely diametrically opposed to the logic that that is employing. I'm looking at that very candle here. This one right here. I'll put my cursor |
| 203 | 00:39:12,420 --> 00:39:19,770 | over top of the candle. Okay, because I don't know how to highlight this. When you see me do my pre recorded videos, I have the advantage of doing that with |
| 204 | 00:39:19,770 --> 00:39:35,010 | Camtasia which is the screen capturing application I use and you can get that from techsmith.com tchsmith.com techsmith.com and the application is Camtasia |
| 205 | 00:39:35,550 --> 00:39:45,090 | wonderful resource you can record your screen with it. But I don't have a way that I know of to highlight my cursor when I'm doing these live streams using |
| 206 | 00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:57,600 | OBS. So I apologize it may be hard for you to track my my cursor, but it's this candle right here. This up close candle it's the highest up close, bullish |
| 207 | 00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:11,940 | candle before the drop down And why that's important is it's a bullish breaker. The bullish breaker is the low here, up to the high, and then the lower low. So |
| 208 | 00:40:11,940 --> 00:40:20,970 | classic support resistance would say, when we trade through this, this candles high right here, when we put a line on it, certainly you can see the |
| 209 | 00:40:20,970 --> 00:40:34,590 | distinctions here. And I can put this to bed once and for all. All right, see this line right here? That line if it's broken like it is on this candle right |
| 210 | 00:40:34,590 --> 00:40:44,520 | there. The common consensus is, if this is broken to the upside, when price comes back down to it right here on that candle, it should act as what |
| 211 | 00:40:44,700 --> 00:40:54,420 | resistance broken turn support? Well, no, no, what I'm doing is I'm looking inside the up close candle here. Let me move this way out of the way for a |
| 212 | 00:40:54,420 --> 00:41:05,910 | second. That green candle right here, the last upper most green candle because I'm looking at it's closing price. Not this one. I'm looking at this one, it has |
| 213 | 00:41:05,910 --> 00:41:15,600 | the highest up close. It's inside of the high that's formed between this candles low and this candles Hi, I'm sorry, this candles low in this game is low. So a |
| 214 | 00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:26,220 | bullish breaker is a swing high. That's between two lows, but the most recent low has to go lower because it's taking out sell stops. Then the market rallies |
| 215 | 00:41:26,220 --> 00:41:37,830 | higher trades through it and then I'm going to look for this signature in price. I'm first looking for the beefiest up close body candle. If there is a candle |
| 216 | 00:41:37,830 --> 00:41:45,480 | that's large, like this one, if you're not careful, you can just say well, that's that's the one I'm looking for. Now you got to look for where the highest |
| 217 | 00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:54,510 | closing prices and an up close candle that's this one. That's my bullish breaker, then you you take that entire range from the low up to the high, |
| 218 | 00:41:55,200 --> 00:42:06,570 | encapsulate that with your rectangle, and then drag that forward. Now at the time, I was talking about how, by itself it means nothing. It just gives you the |
| 219 | 00:42:06,570 --> 00:42:16,980 | range of far as far as how much of a retracement back down. I'm saying that I said this live that it's not that you're breaking above that old high and using |
| 220 | 00:42:16,980 --> 00:42:26,610 | it as support now, I'm saying that you need to look at that low and expect price to reach down as far as that. That's still okay. But I took your attention into |
| 221 | 00:42:26,610 --> 00:42:40,410 | this little area here which was the fair value got the fine by this candles high? That candles low. That fair value got I said you would see the bodies stay |
| 222 | 00:42:40,410 --> 00:42:50,400 | inside that. And that's exactly what we see here. The wicks went beyond it. That's fine. What is it? What is it inside of this airbag is inside of what? |
| 223 | 00:42:51,300 --> 00:43:06,000 | This breaker? So that entire range extended out in the future? Yes, we went lower. Where did the body stop? Right at the bottom of the fair Vega. The wicks |
| 224 | 00:43:06,240 --> 00:43:13,410 | can go through that. Remember the analogy I was teaching. When you're cutting the grass in your lawn, you got to be careful not to leave there's little |
| 225 | 00:43:13,410 --> 00:43:22,470 | Mohawks where you didn't line up your mower correctly, and you have to go back and cut them. That's what this is leaving no Mohawks, it's gonna overshoot it |
| 226 | 00:43:22,470 --> 00:43:32,730 | just a little bit, that's fine. That's not lack of precision. The body stayed inside of that breaker. That's proof of logic. That's proof of concept. That's |
| 227 | 00:43:32,730 --> 00:43:41,760 | proof that the market is absolutely being controlled. You're going to tell me that every retail trader and every person that speculated today in s&p came |
| 228 | 00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:55,020 | together and commonly read that we won't let the body close outside of the scope of a breaker that some goober on YouTube caught ICT created right? It takes more |
| 229 | 00:43:55,020 --> 00:44:04,440 | faith to believe that than simply accepting the fact that the market or algorithmic, okay, whatever. So the market rallies from there and trades up into |
| 230 | 00:44:05,250 --> 00:44:11,010 | the pool of liquidity over here, which is what I drew your attention to I said I had to break at 1030 because I had a good test drive a Hellcat jailbreak |
| 231 | 00:44:11,010 --> 00:44:22,650 | edition, and probably going to take delivery of it but the buy side above here. We ended up going to that. And as it did that, I tweeted and said There you go. |
| 232 | 00:44:23,430 --> 00:44:34,140 | 3136 50 was booked to the buy side was taken, once we delivered that we started consolidating is I'm gonna take this level off because I don't want you seen as |
| 233 | 00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:44,820 | something that's important now because it's not. We go right back to looking at what level what is this level here? That's the low of the old or previous new |
| 234 | 00:44:44,820 --> 00:44:55,500 | week opening gap. So it's hanging around that. It rallies trades up to what level what is this? This consequent quotient of the previous week's new week |
| 235 | 00:44:55,500 --> 00:45:05,640 | opening gap. The low of the week. I'm sorry to note the low of the new week opening gap of the previous week, this is not this past Sunday's opening price. |
| 236 | 00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:16,920 | And last Friday, it's the previous week's Sunday opening price and its previous Friday closing price. And the range between the midpoint is this level here, |
| 237 | 00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:27,270 | which is consequent encouragement. The market trades randomly right up to that level, stops retraces and trades back down to what the new week opening gap low |
| 238 | 00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:37,800 | then the market rallies up trades right up to what the previous week's new week opening gap bursts the body starting inside the boundary that's created by that |
| 239 | 00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:50,580 | range. Does it wick through it? Yes. Is that permissible? Yes. Is it showing a lack of precision by doing so? No. It's doing what I'm teaching you. It's doing |
| 240 | 00:45:50,610 --> 00:46:01,650 | it's doing what it's been coded to do. The market trades lower back through the consequent Grossman dives down below. New week opening gap what's resting below |
| 241 | 00:46:01,650 --> 00:46:16,980 | here? Sell side trades back down into 4128. Go back and look at the discussion this morning in the live session for 4128. The market rallies back up. It's |
| 242 | 00:46:16,980 --> 00:46:30,480 | gyrating around the previous week's new week opening gap low rallies again up to constitute encouragement. Working around the level of what New Day opening gap |
| 243 | 00:46:31,620 --> 00:46:43,020 | members the difference between 5pm is closing price and 6pm opening price that one tick difference. You may not see anything in here that's of importance, but |
| 244 | 00:46:43,020 --> 00:46:53,580 | I see a lot look at the look at the gathering around that level. And then it drops down to consequent encroachment between this level and that level. Then it |
| 245 | 00:46:53,580 --> 00:47:12,210 | rallies very get dips down into that then its expansion to the upside runs into 41 the three and a half yeah consolidates, we have relatively equal highs now. |
| 246 | 00:47:13,050 --> 00:47:24,360 | The market drops back down works what level the previous week's new week opening gap high protects the buy side |
| 247 | 00:47:29,100 --> 00:48:01,050 | 333 o'clock. 345 right there. Between 3:30am Sorry, 315 and 345 last hour macro. It will run on liquidity that has not been engaged. Meaning here's 315 New York |
| 248 | 00:48:01,050 --> 00:48:04,950 | local time 345. |
| 249 | 00:48:16,050 --> 00:48:29,760 | That's your last hour trading the macro. The algorithm will do a spooling Okay, spooling Think of it like that question a few folks about this. When I say |
| 250 | 00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:41,730 | spooling, imagine you're a fishing you're on a fishing pole. Okay, and you cast the fishing rod out into the water. When the fishing line is leaving the spool. |
| 251 | 00:48:42,030 --> 00:48:51,780 | It's just like it's running, it's dragging out that line. That's what that's what it's going to do. It's going to run out the line, like you're like you're |
| 252 | 00:48:51,780 --> 00:49:01,290 | standing right here, you're going to cast the fishing pole in the line keeps going out and you're aiming for the drop your your lower into this area right |
| 253 | 00:49:01,290 --> 00:49:13,260 | above here is right above here is what buyside liquidity. So you could be a buyer trading down here at some random level of volume and balance order block, |
| 254 | 00:49:14,010 --> 00:49:24,660 | buying that at the 15 minute after three o'clock and expecting price to start delivering higher. And once it creates this scenario, you are entering into a |
| 255 | 00:49:24,780 --> 00:49:36,810 | buy program. A buy program is not a market maker by model. Okay, I see a couple of students interchangeably using that it's not That's not what's going on. A |
| 256 | 00:49:36,810 --> 00:49:45,450 | bike program is when the market goes when an algorithm starts going into by side delivery. Meaning it's going to keep booking price higher and higher. It does |
| 257 | 00:49:45,450 --> 00:49:53,190 | not matter. Listen, folks, I don't care how long you've been trading who you know what firm you worked with us to make the markets that so and so's crude oil |
| 258 | 00:49:53,190 --> 00:50:03,420 | option market. You're not a market maker, you're a dealer. When you look at the market from the perspective of the Rhythm is was what we're seeing here. And I'm |
| 259 | 00:50:03,420 --> 00:50:11,910 | bringing it to you every day. When the market starts delivering price higher, it matters not how much buying pressure there is or how much selling pressure it |
| 260 | 00:50:11,910 --> 00:50:19,440 | is, it's going to go there, regardless of whether you want it to or not. You could be bearish all you want. Everybody could be screaming about it on the |
| 261 | 00:50:19,440 --> 00:50:28,290 | marketplace sentiment, message boards, forums, Reddit everybody, it won't matter. Because if the markets going to go there, it's going there. And it can |
| 262 | 00:50:28,290 --> 00:50:38,280 | do so with low volume, which blows out the whole argument about buying and selling pressure. The market rallies from here in enters a bike program by |
| 263 | 00:50:38,280 --> 00:50:48,840 | program is when the market just starts booking higher prices until we get to a pool of liquidity. In this case, it would be by side here, or a premium |
| 264 | 00:50:48,870 --> 00:50:55,830 | inefficiency, which would be an example like this right here. The small little fair value gap. So the difference between this candles low on this candle is |
| 265 | 00:50:55,830 --> 00:51:06,540 | high is a city cellphone unbalanced by Sun efficiency. That's the classification of this particular Faraday, meaning it only offered sellside so the be repriced |
| 266 | 00:51:06,690 --> 00:51:15,090 | correctly and have an efficient fair value offer to the marketplace between this candles low and this candle is high, it will want to reprice up to it here like |
| 267 | 00:51:15,090 --> 00:51:28,920 | it does with up close candles, the market will deliver it on up basis. So it's now offered efficiently through the scope of fair value, it is not rebalanced |
| 268 | 00:51:28,950 --> 00:51:42,150 | because it did that. That's not rebalancing. It's repricing. When it leaves this range, then it is balanced, then it's likely to to support price where it |
| 269 | 00:51:42,150 --> 00:51:50,520 | doesn't need to go back down there. So that's the only distinction I'm gonna make here. Now go back to that low. Once it enters the buy program, you know |
| 270 | 00:51:50,520 --> 00:51:59,820 | that it's likely to trade up into here. Why? Because I already explained it this morning. We've already worked lower, I showed you where the smart money shift to |
| 271 | 00:51:59,820 --> 00:52:07,320 | bullish why they're going to be reaching for all this buy side. Everything was explained in that live stream, go back and listen to it. It will be wasteful for |
| 272 | 00:52:07,320 --> 00:52:17,010 | me to do it all again here. Once it starts rallying every down closed candle or series of down close candles, if there's ever a series of down close candles, |
| 273 | 00:52:17,250 --> 00:52:27,900 | you use that entire block of damn close candles as one. Because it's the livery that you're looking at, not just simply one candle, one candle does not make a |
| 274 | 00:52:27,900 --> 00:52:40,110 | narrative. One Candle doesn't make a order block. It's this change in the state of delivery. That is the order block. What I mean by that, let's dig into this |
| 275 | 00:52:46,080 --> 00:52:55,530 | three down close candles. That opening price right there. That candles opening price, you're gonna look at this, this value right here, okay? Look up here in |
| 276 | 00:52:55,530 --> 00:53:15,570 | the upper left hand corner, where I'm pointing, that's the open that price is 41 45.75. As soon as soon as that price is traded to in one tick above it. That |
| 277 | 00:53:15,570 --> 00:53:25,050 | becomes an order block. So young men and young women, please stop making videos pretending you're teaching order blocks, because you have no idea what the hell |
| 278 | 00:53:25,050 --> 00:53:44,610 | you're talking about this change in the state livery. Right there. Once this occurs on that candle, this opening price becomes fair value. That means that |
| 279 | 00:53:44,610 --> 00:53:52,500 | the market when it trades through here, it's going to want to do what offers smart money, the traders that some of you don't believe exist, when it comes |
| 280 | 00:53:52,500 --> 00:54:02,700 | back down and touches that they're buying it. When it trades on this candle here and treats and goes down to it again, they're buying it their algorithm, their |
| 281 | 00:54:02,700 --> 00:54:12,210 | algorithm, which is high frequency and it's hammering, hammering, constantly hammering the market, at these price points. They're buying it here, they're |
| 282 | 00:54:12,210 --> 00:54:26,400 | buying it here, they're buying it here, they're buying it here. Every single time we leave a down close candle. They're watching their positions move into |
| 283 | 00:54:26,400 --> 00:54:38,430 | profit. Every time that we see a new change in the state of delivery. There it's offering them another opportunity to build their position and build it larger. |
| 284 | 00:54:40,380 --> 00:54:50,430 | Whenever the focus is over here, this is the draw on liquidity where the market is going to be pulled to why why should it go up there? Because there's buy sign |
| 285 | 00:54:50,430 --> 00:54:59,970 | up there. Buy stops willing buyers the buyer at a higher price when it's down here. Think about that. You're not taught to think like that in these books. |
| 286 | 00:55:00,600 --> 00:55:14,340 | Everybody writes these books talking about that resistance. No, that's victims. That's new meat, that's flesh to be devoured, the market is the beast, it will |
| 287 | 00:55:14,340 --> 00:55:26,820 | consume the flesh that is dangling off the carcass rate above these highs. That's, that's the life essence of these markets, it's going to where the orders |
| 288 | 00:55:26,820 --> 00:55:35,040 | are, is no respect of your pattern is no respect of a down close candle that you're foolishly calling an order block. When you don't know what you're talking |
| 289 | 00:55:35,040 --> 00:55:50,460 | about. It's going to where the actual orders are. And inefficiencies. So the markets going to seek liquidity and fair value constantly. It's always this ebb |
| 290 | 00:55:50,460 --> 00:56:00,300 | and flow between the two, it's constantly trying to facilitate the most efficient model of delivery for price. That's the that's the function of these |
| 291 | 00:56:00,300 --> 00:56:12,090 | price engines. It's doing that it has no awareness, how many contracts are being bought or sold, it has absolutely none. It doesn't even know how many contracts |
| 292 | 00:56:12,090 --> 00:56:23,370 | are resting above that. It just knows that once it does this, and it stops here and pulls away, every trader is going to do the same thing. It's called priming. |
| 293 | 00:56:25,380 --> 00:56:38,460 | Priming is doing something with the expectation that the audience viewer or participant will begin to expect a specific outcome. Once that's done, once that |
| 294 | 00:56:38,460 --> 00:56:47,790 | hook is sunk in, it's over, the market goes down, when this pass here occurs, traders are going to look at that and say, Oh, it was going to take out that |
| 295 | 00:56:47,790 --> 00:56:58,410 | low. They want to be short, selling, selling, selling smart money is buying, buying, buying, changing estate delivery, buy, buy, buy, buy, boom, |
| 296 | 00:56:59,010 --> 00:57:12,300 | displacement, we're taking a short term high right here. Now think I just walked you through as close as I frickin can, without getting in my own personal |
| 297 | 00:57:12,300 --> 00:57:27,870 | trouble here. This becomes the 2022 model. Think low, lower low, sell sides taken, we're inside that time window between 15 minutes after three to 45 |
| 298 | 00:57:27,870 --> 00:57:37,590 | minutes after three. So that closing our final hour of trading, you're gonna see a macro run to the liquidity that has not been engaged. That's this over here. |
| 299 | 00:57:38,280 --> 00:57:48,270 | Within the context of a bullish market, which I gave you this morning. Change this day delivery, buy, buy, buy buy displacement, shift in market structure |
| 300 | 00:57:48,270 --> 00:57:59,520 | bullish. This is where I've been telling you to buy, this is where I buy, this is where I buy. That's where Smart Money engages. They're in early. How you need |
| 301 | 00:57:59,520 --> 00:58:08,250 | to get in early, because I know I'm teaching you how to get in where it's obvious to see it. Isn't that obvious? Now, that's exactly what I taught you in |
| 302 | 00:58:08,250 --> 00:58:21,060 | the 2020 model. shift in market structure after liquidity is taken, bias is bullish. We have liquidity. Aim for it by in this very idea. Okay. Don't try to |
| 303 | 00:58:21,060 --> 00:58:31,110 | stop loss up real tight. I teach you that in the model. You got to get first profit before you ever roll your stop to anything considered breakeven or close |
| 304 | 00:58:31,110 --> 00:58:43,830 | to that. So are you stopped out here now? You might be a little unsettled because you're new. That's normal. market rallies comes back into another fair |
| 305 | 00:58:43,830 --> 00:58:57,750 | value gap here. Trades until it rallies too damn close candles. We trade through it here that becomes an order block. It's a change in the state of delivery. |
| 306 | 00:58:58,290 --> 00:59:07,620 | It's delivering now by side the next candle opens here. What is that the volume of balance that opens here expected to trade back down just to close that gap to |
| 307 | 00:59:07,620 --> 00:59:19,260 | that opening price no trade into this candle. That opening price trades into it smart and smart money will buy there. What happens after that? Rallies it does |
| 308 | 00:59:19,260 --> 00:59:27,000 | not rally because smart money bought it does not rally because Smart Money has more buying pressure. It rallies because it's rallying. It's designed and it's |
| 309 | 00:59:27,000 --> 00:59:41,730 | cool to do so. I don't give a shit who believes me rallies up and we've priced rather handsomely about the relative equal highs here. Okay. So you see again, |
| 310 | 00:59:41,760 --> 00:59:52,830 | another final trading day. Final our trading macro between 315 345 what's actually occurring there. And if some of you were asking me what makes that |
| 311 | 00:59:52,830 --> 01:00:03,270 | macro what's the what's the deal with that? It's a it's a function that will make the most sense for some of you when you think that the markets bullish and |
| 312 | 01:00:03,270 --> 01:00:13,890 | we had a big bull day, and it runs up mix a high of the day. And then usually, this time of day, the market will pull off the highs and close near the high but |
| 313 | 01:00:13,890 --> 01:00:23,070 | not at the high. But if you're in a time when the markets trying to press out of a consolidation, which is what I outlined this morning on the daily chart, we're |
| 314 | 01:00:23,070 --> 01:00:32,040 | in this range bound consolidation. So the market is going to start probing outside those boundaries, I tipped you off on the side, it's going to reach for |
| 315 | 01:00:32,280 --> 01:00:41,220 | this morning because it had already tried multiple times to go lower. And it's caught traders doing what selling short lots the live stream, it's all in my |
| 316 | 01:00:41,340 --> 01:00:55,350 | dialogue. Your focus was the look up all day, especially in the last part of the day. So here we are, we're up here. And by knowing what you're trading in terms |
| 317 | 01:00:55,350 --> 01:01:04,650 | of direction, and then you focus on specific times of the day, where I'm teaching these macros exists, the 15 minute mark to 45 minutes after three |
| 318 | 01:01:04,650 --> 01:01:18,330 | o'clock, New York local time that macro is market and close, it means it's going to cause a price run as we get in towards the end of the day. If you do not have |
| 319 | 01:01:18,360 --> 01:01:28,260 | a clear setup, and it's not obvious, you do nothing, you don't do anything. And you just wait for 20 minutes to 15 minutes before four o'clock. And then you'll |
| 320 | 01:01:28,260 --> 01:01:41,970 | get some kind of five to eight, maybe sometimes 10 handle run. That's how I trade the last final hour trading. It's so systematic, it's so generic, it's so |
| 321 | 01:01:42,120 --> 01:01:52,860 | boring. But for a trader that's looking for continuity, something that repeats over and over and over again, it's hard to beat it like it's really difficult to |
| 322 | 01:01:52,860 --> 01:01:54,120 | find something that would be |
| 323 | 01:01:55,410 --> 01:02:03,360 | easier. Even though it sounds too scientific. It sounds like there's a whole lot of conjecture here. If you've been with me for a number of months, you hear me |
| 324 | 01:02:03,360 --> 01:02:11,940 | saying the same things. And you see your chart printing exactly what I've taught you it's going to do, because it's coded to do that. You're not going to |
| 325 | 01:02:11,940 --> 01:02:21,390 | convince anyone in this group, that this isn't algorithmic that it's absolutely controlled. Because they've been witnessing they've been they've handled it, |
| 326 | 01:02:21,570 --> 01:02:31,080 | they've seen it. And I know it's jarring for some people that maybe work in the financial realm here in trading, and maybe you're at a brokerage firm, maybe |
| 327 | 01:02:31,080 --> 01:02:42,120 | you're at a quote unquote, bank, maybe you're at a trading institution, okay, something to that effect. And you only know what they trained you to perceive |
| 328 | 01:02:42,120 --> 01:02:52,320 | price is. So you're indoctrinated. I'm on the other side. I've been where you're at. I'm on the other side. I'm telling you how these markets are bulking and I'm |
| 329 | 01:02:52,320 --> 01:03:01,320 | proving it daily, with every single one minute candle. If it wasn't algorithmic, and I didn't know what the hell was talking there, it wouldn't work. But then |
| 330 | 01:03:01,350 --> 01:03:12,990 | then I ate that, then I figured out the code of buying and selling pressure, right? It's ridiculous. It's not that it's not that at all. And when people just |
| 331 | 01:03:12,990 --> 01:03:22,920 | simply relax and disarm themselves, and just warm up to the idea that this is a benefit. If the market is rigged, which it is, there's no reason to fear that. |
| 332 | 01:03:23,070 --> 01:03:35,010 | But you should fear overtrading over leveraging pushing a mythical edge that you think exists with retail stuff. Because when you make money, it has nothing to |
| 333 | 01:03:35,010 --> 01:03:42,720 | do with you doing something right with a pattern, you just happen to be on side at that time and use proper money management. The money management is what made |
| 334 | 01:03:42,720 --> 01:03:51,720 | most people profitable, not the actual trading. Because if you sit down with most retail traders, even the ones that do really well, well means they make a |
| 335 | 01:03:51,720 --> 01:03:58,170 | lot of money, not just making their ends meet, they make a lot of money, that they're honest, there'll be they'll tell you that their strike rates really low. |
| 336 | 01:03:58,590 --> 01:04:05,850 | And it sounds shocking to the average person to a lay audience member. They're like there's no way you make it all that money in your strike rate is that low? |
| 337 | 01:04:06,300 --> 01:04:16,590 | Surely your strike rate has to be extremely high. No, the money management does all the heavy lifting. They know how to cut losers. They know how to lose data, |
| 338 | 01:04:16,590 --> 01:04:28,140 | take the losses and not go nuts about it. And they let their runs run. So they can afford the trade with a low strike rate. I'm not happy with a low strike |
| 339 | 01:04:28,140 --> 01:04:35,730 | rate. And I don't want my students to satisfy themselves with a low strike rate. I want you to know when to do certain things when to avoid trading. When to |
| 340 | 01:04:35,730 --> 01:04:43,590 | anticipate when it's going to be hard because if you know when it's going to be hard. You won't be inclined to do what over trade over leverage push it when you |
| 341 | 01:04:43,590 --> 01:04:55,500 | take a loss. Try to get it back real quick. You wait and it gives you peace of mind. It gives you absolute control over the trader where most of you don't have |
| 342 | 01:04:55,500 --> 01:05:07,530 | that you are reckless. I was reckless as a 20 year old I did all these things foolishly to. But once you know what it is you're looking for, how you're going |
| 343 | 01:05:07,530 --> 01:05:17,190 | to engage it? What procedures and processes do you go through while doing it? And also, knowing when to pull the plug? When do you turn the charts off and |
| 344 | 01:05:17,190 --> 01:05:25,830 | walk away? That's what this mentorship is. It's not buy here, sell here, stop here, target here, partial here. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I've already |
| 345 | 01:05:25,830 --> 01:05:32,670 | taught that that's already on my YouTube channel. This is the part that none of you want to go through. But this is the part that's required for you to do it. |
| 346 | 01:05:32,670 --> 01:05:41,910 | Well. You can get lucky doing my stuff. You happen to be on side at that moment, but not understanding why your own side, one side, meaning that you're on the |
| 347 | 01:05:41,910 --> 01:05:49,620 | right direction to the marketplace. And if you look for certain things that I teach in variable, you might get lucky once in a while. But you want to know |
| 348 | 01:05:49,620 --> 01:06:00,840 | that, you know, that you know. And that's what I'm trying to teach you. I'm teaching you how to perceive price in its most opportune time and avoiding it. |
| 349 | 01:06:01,350 --> 01:06:10,590 | When it's not in those conditions. You can study it, but don't touch it. It's going to hurt you. It's like the hot pan you walked in the kitchen. You don't |
| 350 | 01:06:10,590 --> 01:06:17,340 | know how long that hot pans been sitting there is been cooled off for a long time. You don't know. So what do you do you walk over and get your hand real |
| 351 | 01:06:17,340 --> 01:06:23,970 | close to it. Because you're an adult, you don't want to get burned, you're gonna feel is there any weight or heat waves coming off of that? Because you don't |
| 352 | 01:06:23,970 --> 01:06:32,850 | want to get burned. But as a child, what did you do when you came in here? Oh, look at this grad burnt. And that's what all of you are doing. When you're |
| 353 | 01:06:32,850 --> 01:06:42,150 | rushing to get these funded accounts. When you're rushing to trade with live accounts. You're even rushing into a demo. And you're fortifying toxic thinking |
| 354 | 01:06:42,150 --> 01:06:52,080 | and fear. When you don't need to be fearful of trading. You don't need to be fearful of it. You need to respect the risks. But don't be fearful of being |
| 355 | 01:06:52,080 --> 01:07:02,400 | wrong. those instances where you're wrong, it's where you are going to learn the most. But you're trying to avoid those instances, which is doing what deferring |
| 356 | 01:07:02,400 --> 01:07:17,400 | any real learning. Didn't think about like Asia. You have to grow through some adversity, some pain, and that uncertainty that you're trying to avoid. You got |
| 357 | 01:07:17,400 --> 01:07:25,500 | to press into that. It's fun. Once you learn. You're like, wow, I'm not afraid of that anymore. I know what I'm looking for. If it doesn't work here, it's |
| 358 | 01:07:25,500 --> 01:07:33,900 | okay. I know it's going to repeat in the future multiple times more times than not done it wrong here. That's the proper mindset. But it's hard to fortify that |
| 359 | 01:07:33,900 --> 01:07:40,920 | mindset in the beginning. When you don't know what the hell you're doing, what you're looking for why you're doing it, you're just trying to copy something you |
| 360 | 01:07:40,920 --> 01:07:48,390 | thought you saw somebody like myself or someone else on on social media. This is what we do here. We're trading a Faraday gaps. This is what we do here. We trade |
| 361 | 01:07:48,390 --> 01:07:56,730 | on order blocks, and you don't really understand what you're doing. So hopefully, you will all take advantage of me spending time with you this year, |
| 362 | 01:07:57,270 --> 01:08:08,490 | and learning how to do this properly. So that way, when we go into 2024, you will be an independently minded trader, you'll know exactly what your model is. |
| 363 | 01:08:08,760 --> 01:08:16,230 | You won't be swayed by social media influencers, me included, you won't feel the necessity to come back to my channel. You won't have to support me with ad |
| 364 | 01:08:16,230 --> 01:08:23,310 | revenue. You won't have to come back here and ask me any questions because you'll know what it is you're doing. And that's exactly my goal for all of you. |
| 365 | 01:08:24,180 --> 01:08:32,280 | So hopefully you learned something from this one. I will be back with you all again tomorrow at the morning session. I'll be live streaming again. And so I'll |
| 366 | 01:08:32,280 --> 01:08:34,440 | talk to you then. Be safe |